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UNCLASSIFIEL 2 Concept of Incremental Capability -- Further, it is very unlikely that we could ever deploy defenses capable of fully achieving the overall objective that the President set for the SDI program in one single step. -- It is much more likely that we will have to make future decisions on a series of defensive options, each of which provide increments of that capability. A fundamental issue, then, is whether we can build the overall defensive capability we seek in "increments" while remaining true to our overall objective, while constantly maintaining the quality of stability and security we seek, and while guarding against inefficient use of limited resources. Incremental Capability and Criteria One of the first questions to be considered is whether our previously identified criteria remain valid under such a concept. Since our overall objective remains unchanged, we continue to believe that the defense resulting from the various increments must be expected to meet our basic criteria. The criterion of military effectiveness aids us by focusing the research efforts on outcomes that support our desired goal, rendering ballistic missiles obsolete. -- We don't simply seek to complement our offensive retaliatory forces by defending them against a disarming 1st strike. On the contrary, we seek a transition to a more stable basis for deterrence which makes use of the increased contribution of defensives which threaten no one, and an improved basis for deterrence which allows us simultaneously to move to lower overall levels of strategic offensive forces while always maintaining our security and that of our allies. The criterion of survivability ensures that the deployment of defenses does not increase crisis instability. If vulnerable, it could generate an incentive in a crisis for an aggressor to attack the defenses. -- Defenses need not be invulnerable, but must be able to maintain a sufficient degree of effectiveness to fulfill their mission, even in the face of determined attacks against them. (C UNCLASSIFIED UNSEASSIFIED SECRET