Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
225358608
label
GHG [Greenhouse Gas] Emissions
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
225358608
contentType
document
title
GHG [Greenhouse Gas] Emissions
citationUrl
collections
Records of the Council of Economic Advisers (Clinton Administration)
Vivian Wu's Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
225358608
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
otherTitles
42-t-7422601-20171095F-034-004-2019
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
e4440eca7478e4ac
ocrText
FOIA Number: 2017-1095-F
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Council of Economic Advisers
Series/Staff Member:
Subject Files
Subseries:
OA/ID Number:
21610
FolderID:
Folder Title:
GHG [Greenhouse Gas] Emissions
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
S
21
4
11
3
Table 1-2
Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emission-Reduction Actions
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)
Action
Action
1993 Action
Revised
Number
Title
Plan Estimate
Estimate*
2000
2000
2005
2010
2020
Residential & Commercial Sector Actions
26.9
10.3
29.4
53.0
78.4
New
Rebuild America
2.0
1.6
3.0
6.3
7.1
I and 2
Expanded Green Lights and
3.6
3.3
8.4
16.3
29.9
Energy Star Buildings
3
State Revolving Fund for Public Buildings
1.1
Terminated
4
Cost-Shared Demonstrations
of Emerging Technologies
5
Operation and Maintenance Training
3.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.0
for Commercial Building Facility
Managers and Operators
6
ENERGY STAR® Products
5.0
4.3
12.9
19.4
24.9
7
Residential Appliance Standards
6.8
0.2
1.8
3.7
3.8
8 and 11
Energy Partnerships for Affordable Housing
9
Cool Communities
4.4
0.4
1.3
3.3
6.8
10
Update State Building Codes
New
Construction of Energy-Efficient
Not included
0.1
0.4
1.1
2.6
Commercial and Industrial Buildings
New
Superwindow Collaborative
Not included
0.0
0.1
0.4
1.3
New
Expand Markets for Next-
Not included
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9
Generation Lighting Products
New
Fuel Cells Initiative
Not included
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
Industrial Sector Actions
19.0
4.8
8.2
11.5%
16.7
12
Motor Challenge
8.8
1.8
3.9
5.8
7.5
13
Industrial Golden Carrot Programs
2.9
Merged into Motor Challenge (#12)
14
Accelerate the Adoption of
Terminated
Energy-Efficient Process Technologies
minice
15
Industrial Assessment Centers
0.5
CCAP Component Terminated
16
Waste Minimization**
4.2
2.1
3.6
5.0
8.4
17
Improve Efficiency of Fertilizer Nitrogen Use
2.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.1
18
Reduce the Use of Pesticides
Terminated
Transportation Sector Actions
8.1
5.3
11.5
15.5
22.1
19
Cash Value of Parking
20
Innovative Transportation Strategies
6.6
4.6
8.4
10.9
17.0
319
21
Telecommuting Program
22
Fuel Economy Labels for Tires
1.5
0.7
3.2
4.8
5.3
Energy Supply Actions
10.8
1.3
3.7
7.0
18.9
23
Increase Natural Gas Share of Energy
2.2
Terminated
Use Through Federal Regulatory Reform
24
Promote Seasonal Gas Use for
2.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
Control of Nitrogen Oxides
25
High-Efficiency Gas Technologies
0.6
Terminated
26
Renewable-Energy Commercialization
0.8
0.3
2.9
5.6
16.4
27
Expand Utility Integrated Resource Planning
1.4
Terminated
28
Profitable Hydroelectric Efficiency Upgrades
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
29
Energy-Efficient Distribution
0.8
0.5
0.8
1.4
2.8
Transformer Standards
30
Energy Star Distribution Transformers
31
Transmission Pricing Reform
0.8
Terminated
New
Green Power Network
Not Included
0.0
To be determined
12
U.S. Climate Action Report
Table 1-2, continued
Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emission-Reduction Actions
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)
Action
Action
1993 Action
Revised
Number
Title
Plan Estimate
Estimate*
2000
2000
2005
2010
2020
Land-Use Change & Forestry Actions***
10.0
2.4
3.3
4.2
5.1
43
Reduce Depletion of Nonindustrial
4.0
Terminated
Private Forests
44
Accelerate Tree Planting in
0.5
0.4
1.3
2.2
3.1
Nonindustrial Private Forests
16
Waste Minimization*
4.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
9
Expand Cool Communities
0.5
To be determined
Methane Actions
16.3
15.5
19.0
23.4
24.2
32
Expand Natural Gas STAR
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.3
33
Increase Stringency of Landfill Rule
4.2
6.3
7.7
9.1
5.9
34
Landfill Methane Outreach Program
1.1
1.9
2.2
2.9
4.3
35
Coalbed Methane Outreach Program
2.2
2.6
2.9
3.2
4.0
36
RD&D for Coal Mine Methane
1.5
Terminated
37
RD&D for Landfill Methane
1.0
Terminated
38
AgSTAR Program
1.5
0.3
0.8
1.8
3.2
2.5
39
Ruminant Livestock Efficiency Program
1.8
1.0
1.6
2.2
Actions to Address Other Greenhouse Gases 16.3
25.4
40.4
45.8
54.5
17
Improved Fertilizer Management
4.5
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
40
Significant New Alternatives Program
5.0
6.4
19.6
23.1
29.8
41
HFC-23 Partnerships
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
42
Voluntary Aluminum Industrial Partnership
1.8
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
New
Environmental Stewardship Initiative
Not included
6.5
8.1
10.0
12.0
Foundation Actions+
11.3
10.7
$9.5
12.3
Climate Wise
Not estimated
1.8
2.7
3.7
4.5
Climate Challenge++
Not estimated
7.6
5.0
1.6
1.5
State and Local Outreach Programs
Not estimated
1.9
3.0
4.2
6.3
Total GHG Emission Reductions
108.6
76.0
128.3
169.3
229.5
From CCAP Programs
Notes Several of the Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) programs are part of larger federal efforts. These programs include Actions 2, 4,
6, 7, 15, 16, 27, 32, and 33. Only the CCAP portions of these programs are included in this table. Also, numbers may not add precisely
due to interactive effects and rounding.
There is uncertainty in any attempt to project future emission levels and program impacts. and this uncertainty becomes greater with
longer forecast periods. The results of this evaluation of CCAP represent a best estimate. They are also based on the assumption that
programs will continue to be funded at current funding levels.
Indudes Waste Wise, NICE³, and USDA's Expansion of Recycling Technology.
Additional forestry initiatives by electric utilities are included in Climate Challenge, 0 Foundation Program.
+
Foundation action partners provide additional reductions in almost all sectors and gases. These values only represent incremental
savings not accounted for in other actions or baseline activities.
For the Climate Challenge program, there is considerable uncertainty at this time in quantifying impacts beyond the year 2000.
largely because partners' Climate Challenge plans do not currently extend beyond 2000. Given that participation levels are growing and
that most utilities appear to be meeting or expanding upon their commitments to reducing greenhouse gos emissions, it is reasonable to
expect that the Climate Challenge program will deliver more significant reductions.
Introduction
13
arly Require of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html#energ
Overview of the AEO98 Forecasts
Key Issues
Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
Prices
Complete Analysis of the AEO98 Will Be Available on December 18, 1997
Consumption
Key Issues
Energy Efficiency
The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) is the first AEO with projections to 2020. Key issues for the
forecast extension are trends in energy efficiency improvements, the effects of increasing production and
Electricity Generation
productivity improvements on energy prices, and the reduction in nuclear generating capacity.
Production and Imports
Projections in AE098 also reflect a greater shift to electricity market restructuring. Restructuring is addressed
through several changes that are assumed to occur in the industry, including a shorter capital recovery period
Carbon Emissions
for capacity expansion decisions and a revised financial structure that features a higher cost of capital as the
result of higher competitive risk. Both assumptions tend to favor less capital-intensive generation
Appendix A - Results of Reference
technologies, such as natural gas, over coal or baseload renewable technologies.
Case Forecasts
The forecasts include specific restructuring plans in those regions that have announced plans. California, New
Tables Al - A3 (PDF, 47KB)
York, and New England are assumed to begin competitive pricing in 1998. The provisions of the California
legislation for stranded cost recovery and price caps are incorporated. In New York and New England,
Tables A4-A9 (PDF, 63KB)
stranded cost recovery is assumed to be phased out by 2008.
Prices
Tables A10-A15 (PDF, 45KB)
1 of 10
11/12/97 12:14:50
T Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html#energ
Tables A16-A21 (PDF, 47KB)
Figure 1. Fuel price projections, 1996-2020:
Average world crude oil prices
in AEO98 are projected to be
AEO97 and AEO98 compared (1996 dollars)
similar to those in AEO97
If you would like to download a
8-
25-
(Figure 1), $21.48 a barrel (all
AE097
completed copy of the Appendix A tables
AE097
prices are in 1996 dollars) in
6-
20-
(PDF, 190 KB) click here
AE098
2015, rising to $22.32 a barrel
AE098
If there are any detailed forecasts
15-
in 2020. Worldwide demand for
4-
questions about
10-
oil is expected to reach 116.6
2-
Carbon Emissions,
Average electricity
5-
Crude oil
million barrels per day in 2020.
(cents per kibwatthour)
(dollars per barrel)
Because of higher assumed
contact Susan Holte 202/586-4838 or
0
0
1996
2010
2020
1996
2010
2020
economic growth, the AEO98
[email protected],
projection of world oil demand
3-
25-
International Oil Markets,
AE098
in 2015 is 3 percent higher than
G. Daniel Butler, 202/586-9503,
20-
AE097
the AEO97 projection--106.2
2-
[email protected],
AE097
15-
million barrels per day
AE098
compared with 102.8 million
Economic Activity,
10-
1-
Natural gas wellhead
Coal minemouth
barrels per day.
Ronald Earley, 202/586-1398,
5-
(dollars per thousan cubic feet)
(dollars per short ton)
[email protected],
0
0
1996
2010
2020
1996
2010
2020
Oil production in the
Residential Demand,
Organization of Petroleum
John Cymbalsky, 202/586-4815,
Exporting Countries (OPEC) continues to expand to 2020 in the AEO98 projections, but OPEC production in
[email protected],
2015 is 7 percent lower than was projected in AEO97 (Figure 2). Partially offsetting a lower outlook for
Commercial Demand,
Persian Gulf production are recent offshore discoveries in Nigeria and Algeria and capacity expansion in
Venezuela. It is assumed that Iraqi oil production will not exceed sanction-approved levels until after 1998
Erin Boedecker, 202/586-4791,
and then will increase to full capacity within a decade. OPEC production capacity expansion in the Persian
[email protected],
Gulf is lower than in AEO97 because of a more optimistic assessment of oil production potential and
Industrial Demand,
technological advances in non-OPEC countries.
T. Crawford Honeycutt, 202/586-1420,
2 of 10
11/12/97 12:14:54
Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html#energ
[email protected],
Figure 2. Sources of world oil supply, 1996-2020:
Higher expectations for
Transportation Demand,
non-OPEC oil production in
AEO97 and AEO98 compared
AEO98, as compared with
David Chien, 202/586-3994,
(million barrels per day)
AEO97, maintain world oil
[email protected],
10-
OECD Europe
10-
Non-OPEC South and
prices at AEO97 levels even
Electricity Generation,
8-
8-
Central America
with higher world demand.
Dave Schoeberlein, 202/586-2349,
AEO98
New fields in the North Sea
6-
6-
AEO98
[email protected],
slow the projected
4-
4-
AE097
AE097
production decline in that
Electrictiy Prices & Restructuring,
2-
2-
area. Production in Central
J. Alan Beamon, 202/586-2025,
0
0
and South America increases,
1996
2010
2020
1996
2010
2020
[email protected],
particularly in Mexico,
80-
OPEC
20-
Former Soviet Union
Nuclear Energy,
Brazil, Colombia, and
AE097
Laura Church, 202/586-1494,
60-
15-
AEO98
Argentina. In the
AEO98
oil-producing areas of the
[email protected],
40-
10-
AE097
Former Soviet Union, current
Renewable Energy,
20-
5-
production increases through
Thomas Petersik, 202/586-6582,
2020, mostly due to the
0
0
[email protected].
1996
2010
2020
1996
2010
2020
development of the Caspian
Sea oil fields. Expectations
Oil and Gas Production,
for oil production in Canada and in the offshore areas of West Africa are also higher in AEO98 than they were
Ted McCallister, 202/586-4820,
in AEO97.
[email protected],
Natural Gas Markets,
The average wellhead price of natural gas in AEO98 is projected to increase to $2.38 per thousand cubic feet
Phyllis Martin, 202/586-9582,
in 2015 (9 percent higher than the $2.18 in AEO97), increasing to $2.54 in 2020. Higher price projections are
[email protected],
the result of a lower assessment of the expansion of the oil and gas resource base, higher drilling costs as
Oil Refining and Markets,
indicated in more recent data, and higher projected demand for natural gas.
Stacy MacIntyre, 202/586-9795,
[email protected],
In AEO98, the average minemouth price of coal is projected to be $13.99 per ton in 2015, 12 percent lower
than the $15.84 in AEO97. Prices are lower in AE098 due to analysis of more recent data showing a greater
Coal Supply and Prices,
impact of productivity on mining costs and price, regional analysis of productivity improvements that reduce
Richard Newcombe, 202/586-2415,
costs for western surface mines, and a higher share for western coal. By 2020, the price declines to $13.27 per
[email protected],
ton as a result of increasing productivity, a continued shift to lower-cost western production, and competitive
pressures on labor costs.
or any general questions about this
page,
A
AEO97 represented increased competition in electricity markets by incorporating the Federal Energy
please contact Amy Nguyen
Regulatory Commission actions on open access, lower costs for gas-fired technologies, and early retirements
202/586-7120 or
of higher cost coal-fired plants. In addition, AEO98 assumes lower operating and maintenance costs as
[email protected]
indicated by recent data, lower capital costs and improved efficiency for coal- and gas-fired generation
technologies, lower general and administrative costs, early retirement of higher cost nuclear units, changes in
financial structure, and transition to competitive prices in California, New York, and New England (as noted
above). Average electricity prices decline to 5.5 cents per kilowatthour in 2020. Because of these assumptions
and lower coal prices, electricity prices are 13 percent lower than in AEO97--5.6 cents per kilowatthour in
3 of 10
11/12/97 12:14:59
Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ae098/earlyrel.html#energ
2015 in AEO98, compared to 6.4 cents in AEO97.
Currently evolving legislative actions that could shape the future of the electricity industry are discussed in
the "Legislation and Regulations" section of the completed AEO98 report, which will be available on
December 1997. An analysis of the potential impacts of competitive pricing nationwide is included ir the
"Issues in Focus" section.
Consumption
Total U.S. energy consumption is projected to increase from 94.0 to 118.6 quadrillion British thermal units
(Btu) between 1996 and 2020. In 2015 the AEO98 projection is 4.7 quadrillion Btu (4 percent) higher than in
AEO97, reflecting higher projected consumption levels in all end-use sectors.
Transportation demand grows at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent through 2020 and is 2.6 quadrillion Btu
(8 percent) higher in 2015 compared with AEO97. Recent data indicate increased light-duty vehicle travel,
particularly by the older age groups and women, and slower growth in efficiency of light-duty vehicles
because of continuing consumer preference for improved performance and larger vehicles over efficiency. In
2015, motor gasoline demand is 10 percent (0.9 million barrels per day) higher than was projected in AEO97.
In AEO98, jet fuel demand is 17 percent higher in 2015, reflecting an ongoing trend of more air travel,
combined with slower sales of the more efficient wide-body aircraft.
In AEO98, residential and commercial demand is higher than in AEO97 by a total of 1.5 quadrillion Btu (4
percent) in 2015, partly as the result of lower projected electricity prices. In the absence of additional
efficiency standards beyond the new refrigerator and room air conditioner standards that were issued in 1997,
penetration of more efficient technologies is assumed to occur more slowly than inAEO97. In the residential
sector, there are also more mobile homes, a more disaggregated representation of end uses, and greater use of
the more traditional heating technologies (as indicated by recent data), all contributing to higher projected
demand in AEO98. Commercial floorspace increases at a faster rate than in AEO97 early in the projection
period, contributing to higher demand in AEO98. Industrial sector demand is 2 percent (0.6 quadrillion Btu)
higher in 2015, with higher expected growth in some of the more energy-intensive industries partially offset
by more rapid efficiency improvements.
AEO98 incorporates the efficiency standards for new energy-using equipment in buildings and for motors
mandated through 1994 by the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987 and the Energy Policy
Act of 1992. Several alternative cases in AEO98 examine the impacts of technology on the projections by
assuming the penetration of more energy-efficient technologies in the end-use sectors beyond that projected in
the reference case and, conversely, assuming slower penetration of technology improvements. Modifications
to residential equipment standards are discussed in "Legislation and Regulations."
4 of 10
11/12/97 12:15:00
Early Release of the 'Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ae098/earlyrel.html#energ
Figure 3. Energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020
Natural gas consumption increases
by an average of 1.6 percent a
(qua drillion Btu)
year (Figure 3), with increased
50 -
demand in all sectors. The most
History
Projections
Petroleum
rapid growth is in consumption by
electricity generators (excluding
40
cogenerators), which is projected
to increase from 3.0 to 10.1
Natural gas
quadrillion Btu between 1996 and
30
2020. Total gas consumption in
Coal
2015 is 0.5 quadrillion Btu (2
percent) higher than in AEO97,
20
due to higher projected
Nonhydro
consumption in the residential,
renewables
commercial, and industrial
10
and other
sectors.
Nuclear
Hydro
0
Although coal-fired generation
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
loses market share over the
projection period, it accounts for
more than one-half of electricity generation (excluding cogeneration). Total coal consumption increases from
20.9 to 25.6 quadrillion Btu between 1996 and 2020, an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. About 90 percent
of U.S. coal consumption is used for electricity generation. Coal consumption is 5 percent (1.2 quadrillion
Btu) higher than in AEO97 in 2015, due to an increase in projected consumption for generation.
Demand for petroleum products is projected to grow by an average of 1.2 percent a year through 2020. In
2020, 72 percent of petroleum use is in the transportation sector, up from 66 percent in 1996. Increases in
light-duty vehicle miles traveled more than offset the increases in vehicle efficiency throughout the projection
period. Continued economic growth also increases petroleum use for air and freight travel and shipping over
the forecast horizon. In 2015, total petroleum demand is 7 percent higher than in AEO97, due primarily to
higher travel and slower efficiency improvements in the transportation sector.
Renewable fuel use increases by an average of 0.5 percent a year. In 2020, 59 percent of the total is for
electricity generation and the rest for dispersed heating and cooling, industrial uses, and blending in vehicle
fuels. In 2015, renewables consumption is lower than in AEO97 by 0.2 quadrillion Btu (3 percent) due to
lower demand for renewables for electricity generation and for industrial sector cogeneration, as indicated by
recent data.
Electricity consumption is projected to grow by 1.4 percent a year through 2020. Efficiency gains in the use
of electricity partially offset the continued trend of electrification and the penetration of new electricity-using
equipment. Compared to AEO97, electricity demand is higher by 0.2 quadrillion Btu (2 percent) in 2015, due
to slower efficiency improvements in the residential and commercial sectors and a more disaggregated
treatment of residential end uses.
5 of 10
11/12/97 12:15:03
Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html#ener;
Energy Efficiency
Figure 4. Energy use per capita and per dollar of
Energy intensity, measured as
energy use per dollar of GDP,
gross domestic product, 1970-2020 (index, 1970 = 1)
has generally declined since
1.2-
Projections
1970, particularly during
History
Energy
periods of rapid increases in
use per
energy prices (Figure 4). From
1.0-
capita
1970 to 1986, it declined on
average by 2.3 percent a year,
0.8-
as the economy shifted to less
energy-intensive industries
Energy
and more efficient
0.6- -
use per
technologies. Energy intensity
dollar
was relatively stable from
0.4-
of CDP
1986 to 1996 due to moderate
price increases and the growth
of more energy-intensive
0.2-
industries. From 1996 to 2020
intensity is projected to
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
decline at an average annual=
rate of 0.9 percent.
Energy use per capita, which also declined from 1970 through the early 1980s, rose in the mid-1980s as
energy prices declined. Per capita energy use is expected to remain relatively stable through 2020 and below
the high in the early 1970s, as efficiency gains offset higher demand for energy services.
Electricity Generation
11/12/97 12:15:06
6 of 10
Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html#enerp
Figure 5. Energy generation by fuel, 1970-2020
Electricity generation from
(billion kilowatthours)
nuclear power declines
significantly over the projection
3,500 -
period (Figure 5). Of the 101
Electricity demand
4,308
gigawatts of nuclear capacity
3,000 -
available in 1996, 52 gigawatts
1,392
(65 units) are assumed to be
2,500 -
retired by 2020, with no new
Coal
plants constructed by 2020. In
2,000 -
1970
2020
AEO97, it was assumed that
nuclear plants would be retired at
1,500 -
Natural gas
the end of their 40-year operating
History
Projections
licenses; however, AE098
1,000 -
assumes that 24 units will be
Nuclear
retired as early as 10 years before
500
Renewables
their licenses/expire. The early
retirement assumptions are based
Petroleum
0
on utility announcements and on
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
analysis of the ages and operating
costs of the units
Generation from both natural gas and coal is projected to increase significantly through 2020 to meet
increased demand for electricity and offset the decline in nuclear power. With lower coal prices, lower capital
costs for coal-fired generating technologies, and higher electricity demand, the projection for coal-fired
generation is higher than the AEO97 projection. The share of coal generation declines in the AEO98 forecast
to 2020, because the assumptions concerning the restructuring of the electricity industry favor the less
capital-intensive gas technologies for new capacity additions. AEO98 also incorporates a more optimistic
assessment of ultimately recoverable natural gas resources, which affects capacity expansion decisions in
favor of natural gas technologies. The natural-gas-fired share of electricity generation (excluding
cogenerators) more than triples, from 9 percent to 31 percent, between 1996 and 2020.
Generation from renewable energy sources remains nearly stable between 1996 and 2020. Compared with
AEO97, renewable generation is 2 percent (6, billion kilowatthours) lower in 2015 Renewables penetrate
more slowly than they did AEO97 due to competition with fossil fuel technologies: In addition, the shorter
assumed capital recovery period for new projects weighs against more capital-intensive projects, such as coal
and baseload renewables. Biomass generation is significantly lower than inAEO97 because of lower coal
prices and reduced costs for coal technologies, which compete with biomass.
In AEO98, hydropower, the main renewable source of electricity generation, is lower in 2020 than in 1996,
primarily because regulatory actions limit capacity at existing sites and no large new sites are available for
development. Generation from all other renewables increases to 2020, although at slower rates than in
AEO97.
7 of 10
11/12/97 12:15:08
-
Easly Release of the 'Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ae098/earlyrel.htmlfenerg
Production and Imports
Figure 6. Energy production by fuel, 1970-2020
U.S. crude oil production declines
at an average rate of 1.1 percent a
(qua drillion Btu)
year between 1996 and 2020 to a
30 -
History
Projections
projected level of 4.9 million
Coal
Natural gas
barrels a day. Advances in oil
exploration and production
25 -
technologies are insufficient to
offset declining resources. In
20 -
2015, projected world oil prices
are the same in AEO98 as those in
AEO97, and domestic crude oil
15
Petroleum
production is also the same at 5.2
million barrels a day. In
10 -
projections of total petroleum
Nonhydro
renewables
production (Figure 6), increases
and other
5-
in the production of natural gas
Nuclear
plant liquids partially offset the
Hydropower
decline in crude oil production.
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Figure 7. Net energy imports by file
(qua drillion Btu)
40 -
History
Projectic
30-
I
20-
I
10-
0
-10
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
net imports rises from 46 percent in 1996 (measured in barrels per day) to 66 percent in 2020. Comparing
AEO97 to AEO98, the 2015 share increases from 61 to 63 percent as a result of higher demand and stable
8 of 10
11/12/97 12:15:12
Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html#ener;
production.
In AEO98, dry natural gas production is projected to increase from 19.0 trillion cubic feet in 1996 to 27.4
trillion cubic feet in 2020, an average annual rate of 1.5 percent, to meet most of the growing demand for gas.
Net imports of natural gas, primarily from Canada, increase from 2.7 to 4.9 trillion cubic feet between 1996
and 2020. It is assumed that pipeline capacity from Canada and pipeline utilization rates increase to
encourage imports of competitively priced Canadian gas. Net imports of liquefied natural gas increase to 0.3
trillion cubic feet in 2020.
Coal production increases by an average of 1.1 percent a year, from 1,064 million tons in 1996 to 1,376
million tons in 2020, with increasing demand for domestic use and for exports. Exports of steam coal will
primarily serve expanding markets for electricity generation in Asia, although exports to Europe and the
Americas also increase. Total metallurgical coal exports are essentially unchanged from 1996 to 2020. In
2015, coal production in the AEO98 projections is higher than in AEO97 by 58 million tons (5 percent) due to
increased consumption by electricity generators, which is offset slightly by a reduction in industrial demand.
Renewable energy production, including hydropower, is projected to increase from 6.9 to 7.7 quadrillion Btu
between 1996 and 2020, primarily from industrial biomass, along with municipal solid waste, geothermal,
wind, and biomass for electricity generation. With lower consumption in the industrial and generation sectors,
the AEO98 projection for renewable energy production is 0.2 quadrillion Btu (3 percent) lower in 2015 than
in AEO97.
Carbon Emissions
Figure 8. U.S. carbon emissions by sector and fuel,
Carbon emissions from energy
use are projected to increase by
1990-2020 (million metric tons)
1.2 percent a year, to 1,956
2,500 -
million metricitons in 2020
Transportation
Industrial
(Figure 8). Projected emissions
Commercial
in 2015 are 5 percent higher
2,000- -
Residential
than in AEO97--1,888 million
metric tons compared with
Coal
1,799 million metric tons--due
1,500
to higher energy consumption
and lower penetration of
renewables. About one-third of
1,000
Natural gas
the increase from AEO97 is
attributable to increased
electricity demand and the
500 -
Petroleum
resulting increase in
consumption of natural gas and
coal for generation. Increased
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
use of petroleum in the
11/12/97 12:15:15
9 of 10
Early Release of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html#ener
transportation sector
contributes more than 50 percent of the increased emissions in AEO98 compared to AEO97.
The Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) is a collection of 44 actions developed by the Clinton
Administration in 1993 to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels in 2000 In 1990, carbon
emissions from energy use were estimated to be about 1,346 million metric tons AEO98 incorporates the
impacts of those CCAP provisions related to carbon emissions from energy use, including the Climate
Challenge and Climate Wise programs, which foster voluntary reductions in emissions by electric utilities and
industry however, projected emissions exceed 990 levels in 2000 by-17-percent and in:2020 by 45-percent
Further discussion of carbon emissions is presented in the Issues in Focus and Market Trends sections
File last modified: 11/12/97
Contact Name: Susan H. Holte
[email protected]
Phone: (202) 586-4838
Fax: (202) 586-3045
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo98/earlyrel.html
Bookshelf Energy Overview Applications Feedback
search
If you having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at [email protected]
10 of 10
11/12/97 12:15:20
Table A1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Supply, Disposition, and Prices
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Production
Crude Oil and Lease Condensate
13.89
13.71
13.06
12.32
11.79
11.09
10.43
-1.1%
Natural Gas Plant Liquids
2.37
2.46
2.39
2.63
2.95
3.12
3.29
1.2%
Dry Natural Gas
19.12
19.55
20.84
22.88
25.39
26.85
28.21
1.5%
Coal
21.98
22.64
24.34
25.62
26.62
27.73
28.59
1.0%
Nuclear Power
7.19
7.20
7.36
6.87
6.36
5.12
4.09
-2.3%
Renewable Energy1
6.40
6.91
6.82
7.12
7.41
7.59
7.71
0.5%
Other²
1.36
1.33
0.56
0.55
0.48
0.47
0.47
-4.2%
Total
72.31
73.80
75.37
77.98
81.00
81.97
82.77
0.5%
Imports
Crude Oil³
15.70
16.30
19.18
22.01
23.17
24.36
25.30
1.8%
Petroleum Products
3.19
3.98
4.25
5.47
7.61
9.01
10.09
3.9%
Natural Gas
2.90
2.93
4.20
4.39
4.66
5.04
5.34
2.5%
Other Imports5
0.59
0.57
0.62
0.58
0.57
0.54
0.56
-0.1%
Total
22.38
23.78
28.26
32.45
36.02
38.96
41.28
2.3%
Exports
Petroleum®
2.02
2.04
1.71
1.73
1.80
1.89
1.67
-0.8%
Natural Gas
0.16
0.16
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.30
0.32
3.0%
Coal
2.32
2.37
2.41
2.64
2.84
3.03
3.23
1.3%
Total
4.50
4.57
4.39
4.65
4.93
5.21
5.23
0.6%
Discrepancy⁷
0.66
0.99
0.58
0.04
0.08
0.00
-0.25
N/A
Consumption
Petroleum Products
34.74
36.01
38.35
41.32
44.33
46.20
47.64
1.2%
Natural Gas
22.18
22.60
24.74
26.93
29.63
31.44
33.06
1.6%
Coal
19.96
20.90
22.14
23.21
24.03
24.95
25.61
0.9%
Nuclear Power
7.19
7.20
7.36
6.87
6.36
5.12
4.09
-2.3%
Renewable Energy1
6.40
6.91
6.82
7.12
7.42
7.62
7.74
0.5%
Other®
0.39
0.39
0.41
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.43
0.4%
Total
90.86
94.01
99.82
105.82
112.17
115.72
118.58
1.0%
Net Imports - Petroleum
16.87
18.25
21.72
25.75
28.99
31.48
33.71
2.6%
Prices (1996 dollars per unit)
World Oil Price (dollars per barrel)¹⁰
17.58
20.48
19.11
20.19
20.81
21.48
22.32
0.4%
Gas Wellhead Price (dollars per Mcf)11
1.61
2.24
2.11
2.15
2.31
2.38
2.54
0.5%
Coal Minemouth Price (dollars per ton)
19.25
18.50
17.45
16.18
15.05
13.99
13.27
-1.4%
Average Electric Price (cents per kilowatthour)
7.0
6.9
6.5
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.5
-1.0%
'Includes grid-connected electricity from conventional hydroelectric; wood and wood waste; landfill gas; municipal solid waste; other biomass; wind; photovoltaic and
solar thermal sources; non-electric energy from renewable sources, such as active and passive solar systems, and wood; and both the ethanol and gasoline components of
E85, but not the ethanol components of blends less than 85 percent. Excludes electricity imports using renewable sources and nonmarketed renewable energy. See Table
A18 for selected nonmarketed residential and commercial renewable energy.
"Includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some domestic inputs to refineries.
*Includes imports of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
*Includes imports of finished petroleum products, imports of unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components.
*Includes coal, coal coke (net), and electricity (net).
*Includes crude oil and petroleum products.
'Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, gains, and net storage withdrawals.
*Includes natural gas plant liquids, crude oil consumed as a fuel, and nonpetroleum based liquids for blending, such as ethanol.
*Includes net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.
10Average refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil.
"Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Mcf = Thousand cubic feet.
N/A If Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures for 1995 and 1996 may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors.
Sources: 1995 natural gas values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC, November 1996). 1995 coal
minemouth prices: EIA, Coal Industry Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0584(95) (Washington, DC, October 1996). Other 1995 values: EIA, Annual Energy Review 1995, DOE/EIA-
0384(95) (Washington, DC, July 1996). 1996 natural gas values: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/06) (Washington, DC, June 1997). 1996 coal minemouth price:
Coal Industry Annual 1996 DOE/EIA-0584(96) (Washington, DC, November 1997). Coal production and exports derived from: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-
0035(97/08) (Washington, DC, August 1997). Other 1996 values: EIA, Annual Energy Review 1996, DOE/EIA-0384(96) (Washington, DC, July 1997). Projections: EIA,
AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
1
Table A2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Sector and Source
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Transportation
Distillate Fuel®
4.24
4.48
5.14
5.63
6.02
6.19
6.31
1.4%
Jet Fuel
3.13
3.27
3.83
4.47
5.23
5.79
6.28
2.8%
Motor Gasoline²
14.65
14.94
15.96
17.17
18.22
18.84
19.38
1.1%
Residual Fuel
0.87
0.90
0.94
1.10
1.27
1.42
1.56
2.3%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.10
0.16
0.20
0.24
8.7%
Other Petroleum¹⁰
0.28
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.37
0.37
1.1%
Petroleum Subtotal
23.21
23.91
26.22
28.81
31.25
32.80
34.14
1.5%
Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas
0.72
0.73
0.80
0.85
0.95
0.99
1.03
1.4%
Compressed Natural Gas
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.15
0.24
0.30
0.34
15.8%
Renewable Energy (E85)"
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.09
0.13
0.16
20.5%
Methanol
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.08
0.13
0.15
20.6%
Liquid Hydrogen
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
49.7%
Electricity
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.11
0.16
0.19
0.22
5.6%
Delivered Energy
24.00
24.72
27.14
29.97
32.77
34.54
36.04
1.6%
Electricity Related Losses
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.23
0.32
0.37
0.41
4.9%
Total
24.12
24.85
27.28
30.20
33.09
34.91
36.45
1.6%
Delivered Energy Consumption for All
Sectors
Distillate Fuel
6.73
6.98
7.61
8.18
8.63
8.83
8.96
1.0%
Kerosene
0.11
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
-0.5%
Jet Fuel
3.13
3.27
3.83
4.47
5.23
5.79
6.28
2.8%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
2.50
2.65
2.71
2.90
3.13
3.24
3.31
0.9%
Motor Gasoline²
14.92
15.16
16.19
17.43
18.49
19.12
19.67
1.1%
Petrochemical Feedstock
1.23
1.28
1.31
1.38
1.47
1.49
1.51
0.7%
Residual Fuel
1.41
1.39
1.40
1.56
1.74
1.88
2.03
1.6%
Other Petroleum13
4.03
4.39
4.64
4.91
5.18
5.40
5.45
0.9%
Petroleum Subtotal
34.06
35.26
37.80
40.95
43.98
45.87
47.33
1.2%
Natural Gas6
18.73
19.56
20.61
21.24
22.25
22.72
22.99
0.7%
Metallurgical Coal
0.89
0.85
0.83
0.76
0.71
0.65
0.61
-1.4%
Steam Coal
1.73
1.68
1.70
1.84
1.92
1.93
1.94
0.6%
Net Coal Coke Imports
0.03
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
N/A
Coal Subtotal
2.64
2.53
2.56
2.65
2.69
2.66
2.63
0.2%
Renewable Energy14
2.33
2.44
2.58
2.76
2.96
3.08
3.15
1.1%
Methanol
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.08
0.13
0.15
20.6%
Liquid Hydrogen
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
49.7%
Electricity
10.32
10.57
11.32
12.29
13.23
14.04
14.70
1.4%
Delivered Energy
68.09
70.36
74.88
79.92
85.19
88.50
90.95
1.1%
Electricity Related Losses
22.86
23.64
24.94
25.90
26.97
27.22
27.63
0.7%
Total
90.95
94.01
99.82
105.82
112.17
115.72
118.58
1.0%
Electric Generators¹⁵
Distillate Fuel
0.13
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
-0.6%
Residual Fuel
0.55
0.66
0.47
0.30
0.28
0.25
0.24
-4.2%
Petroleum Subtotal
0.68
0.75
0.54
0.37
0.35
0.32
0.31
-3.6%
Natural Gas
3.44
3.04
4.14
5.69
7.38
8.71
10.07
5.1%
Steam Coal
17.31
18.36
19.57
20.55
21.34
22.29
22.99
0.9%
Nuclear Power
7.19
7.20
7.36
6.87
6.36
5.12
4.09
-2.3%
Renewable Energy¹⁶
4.08
4.47
4.24
4.37
4.46
4.53
4.59
0.1%
Electricity Imports¹⁷
0.39
0.39
0.41
0.34
0.31
0.28
0.28
-1.4%
Total
33.09
34.21
36.26
38.19
40.20
41.26
42.33
0.9%
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
3
Table A2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Sector and Source
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Energy Consumption
Residential
Distillate Fuel
0.89
0.89
0.85
0.79
0.77
0.74
0.72
-0.9%
Kerosene
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
-0.6%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
0.40
0.42
0.45
0.47
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.8%
Petroleum Subtotal
1.36
1.40
1.38
1.34
1.33
1.32
1.30
-0.3%
Natural Gas
4.98
5.39
5.35
5.47
5.63
5.82
5.97
0.4%
Coal
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
-0.2%
Renewable Energy1
0.59
0.61
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.2%
Electricity
3.56
3.68
3.97
4.29
4.61
4.94
5.28
1.5%
Delivered Energy
10.54
11.13
11.36
11.77
12.25
12.77
13.25
0.7%
Electricity Related Losses
7.88
8.23
8.75
9.05
9.39
9.58
9.93
0.8%
Total
18.42
19.36
20.11
20.81
21.64
22.35
23.17
0.8%
Commercial
Distillate Fuel
0.47
0.44
0.41
0.40
0.40
0.39
0.37
-0.7%
Residual Fuel
0.17
0.15
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
-0.9%
Kerosene
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
-0.2%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.8%
Motor Gasoline²
0.07
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
-0.3%
Petroleum Subtotal
0.81
0.71
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.63
-0.5%
Natural Gas
3.11
3.30
3.47
3.62
3.75
3.85
3.85
0.7%
Coal
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.8%
Renewable Energy3
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.1%
Electricity
3.26
3.37
3.59
3.84
4.09
4.33
4.45
1.2%
Delivered Energy
7.26
7.47
7.80
8.21
8.60
8.92
9.04
0.8%
Electricity Related Losses
7.21
7.54
7.91
8.09
8.35
8.39
8.37
0.4%
Total
14.46
15.01
15.72
16.30
16.94
17.31
17.41
0.6%
Industrial⁴
Distillate Fuel
1.13
1.17
1.21
1.35
1.45
1.51
1.56
1.2%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
2.00
2.12
2.14
2.25
2.40
2.45
2.47
0.6%
Petrochemical Feedstock
1.23
1.28
1.31
1.38
1.47
1.49
1.51
0.7%
Residual Fuel
0.37
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.34
0.35
0.1%
Motor Gasoline²
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.23
0.25
0.26
0.27
1.4%
Other Petroleum5
3.77
4.12
4.35
4.60
4.84
5.05
5.10
0.9%
Petroleum Subtotal
8.69
9.23
9.55
10.15
10.75
11.10
11.25
0.8%
Natural Gas®
9.91
10.14
10.94
11.16
11.67
11.77
11.80
0.6%
Metallurgical Coal
0.89
0.85
0.83
0.76
0.71
0.65
0.61
-1.4%
Steam Coal
1.60
1.55
1.56
1.70
1.77
1.78
1.79
0.6%
Net Coal Coke Imports
0.03
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
N/A
Coal Subtotal
2.51
2.40
2.42
2.51
2.54
2.51
2.48
0.1%
Renewable Energy⁷
1.74
1.82
1.96
2.11
2.25
2.31
2.34
1.0%
Electricity
3.46
3.46
3.69
4.05
4.37
4.58
4.75
1.3%
Delivered Energy
26.30
27.05
28.57
29.97
31.58
32.27
32.62
0.8%
Electricity Related Losses
7.65
7.74
8.14
8.53
8.92
8.88
8.93
0.6%
Total
33.95
34.79
36.71
38.50
40.50
41.15
41.55
0.7%
2
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Sector and Source
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Total Energy Consumption
Distillate Fuel
6.86
7.07
7.68
8.25
8.70
8.90
9.04
1.0%
Kerosene
0.11
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
-0.5%
Jet Fuel
3.13
3.27
3.83
4.47
5.23
5.79
6.28
2.8%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
2.50
2.65
2.71
2.90
3.13
3.24
3.31
0.9%
Motor Gasoline²
14.92
15.16
16.19
17.43
18.49
19.12
19.67
1.1%
Petrochemical Feedstock
1.23
1.28
1.31
1.38
1.47
1.49
1.51
0.7%
Residual Fuel
1.96
2.05
1.87
1.86
2.02
2.14
2.27
0.4%
Other Petroleum13
4.03
4.39
4.64
4.91
5.18
5.40
5.45
0.9%
Petroleum Subtotal
34.74
36.01
38.35
41.32
44.33
46.20
47.64
1.2%
Natural Gas
22.18
22.60
24.74
26.93
29.63
31.44
33.06
1.6%
Metallurgical Coal
0.89
0.85
0.83
0.76
0.71
0.65
0.61
-1.4%
Steam Coal
19.05
20.05
21.28
22.40
23.26
24.22
24.92
0.9%
Net Coal Coke Imports
0.03
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
N/A
Coal Subtotal
19.96
20.90
22.14
23.21
24.03
24.95
25.61
0.9%
Nuclear Power
7.19
7.20
7.36
6.87
6.36
5.12
4.09
-2.3%
Renewable Energy18
6.40
6.91
6.82
7.12
7.42
7.62
7.74
0.5%
Methanol
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.08
0.13
0.15
20.6%
Liquid Hydrogen
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
49.7%
Electricity Imports¹⁷
0.39
0.39
0.41
0.34
0.31
0.28
0.28
-1.4%
Total
90.86
94.01
99.82
105.82
112.17
115.72
118.58
1.0%
Energy Use and Related Statistics
Delivered Energy Use
68.09
70.36
74.88
79.92
85.19
88.50
90.95
1.1%
Total Energy Use
90.86
94.01
99.82
105.82
112.16
115.71
118.55
1.0%
Population (millions)
263.58
266.07
275.62
287.12
298.92
311.19
323.47
0.8%
Gross Domestic Product (billion 1992 dollars)
6742.08
6928.40
7652.77
8503.48
9431.22
10210.71
10899.70
1.9%
Total Carbon Emissions (million metric tons)
1411.40
1462.90
1577.32
1688.76
1803.22
1888.33
1956.19
1.2%
'Includes wood used for residential heating. See Table A18 estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps & solar thermal hot
water heating.
2Includes ethanol (blends of 10 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline.
*Includes commercial sector electricity cogenerated by using wood and wood waste, landfill gas, municipal solid waste, and other biomass. See Table A18 for estimates of
nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for solar thermal hot water heating.
"Fuel consumption includes consumption for cogeneration.
"Includes petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products.
*Includes lease and plant fuel and consumption by cogenerators, excludes consumption by nonutility generators.
Includes consumption of energy from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, and other biomass; including for cogeneration, both for sale to the grid
and for own use.
"Low sulfur diesel fuel.
*Includes naphtha and kerosene type.
"Includes aviation gas and lubricants.
"E85 is 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline(nonrenewable).
"Only M85 (85 percent methanol and 15 percent motor gasoline).
"Includes unfinished oils, natural gasoline, motor gasoline blending compounds, aviation gasoline, lubricants, still gas, asphalt, road oil, petroleum coke, and
miscellaneous petroleum products.
14Includes electricity generated for sale to the grid and for own use from renewable sources, and non-electric energy from renewable sources. Excludes nonmarketed
renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps and solar thermal hot water heaters.
"Includes consumption of energy by all electric power generators for grid-connected power except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal
energy.
"Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, other biomass, E85, wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal sources.
Excludes cogeneration. Excludes net electricity imports.
"In 1996 approximately two-thirds of the U.S. electricity imports were provided by renewable sources (hydroelectricity); EIA does not project future proportions.
"Includes hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, other biomass, wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal sources. Includes ethanol
components of E85; excludes ethanol blends (10 percent or less) in motor gasoline. Excludes net electricity imports and nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for
geothermal heat pumps and solar thermal hot water heaters.
Btu = British thermal unit.
N/A = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures for 1995 and 1996 may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors.
Consumption values of 0.00 are values that round to 0.00, because they are less than 0.005.
Sources: 1995 natural gas lease, plant, and pipeline fuel values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC,
November 1996). 1996 natural gas lease, plant, and pipeline fuel values: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo
/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). 1995 transportation sector compressed natural gas consumption: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run
AEO98B.D100197A. 1995 and 1996 electric utility fuel consumption: EIA, Electric Power Annual 1996, Volume I, DOE/EIA-0348(96)/1 (Washington, DC, August 1997). 1995
and 1996 nonutility consumption estimates: EIA Form 867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report." Other 1995 values derived from: EIA, State Energy Data Report 1994.
ftp://tp.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997), and Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric, and Alternative Fuels estimates. Other 1996 values: EIA, Short-Term
Energy Outlook August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/ermeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling
System run AEO98B.D100197A.
4
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 . DRAFT November 7, 1997
Table A3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source
(1996 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Sector and Source
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Residential
13.02
12.94
12.45
12.31
12.21
11.91
11.97
-0.3%
Primary Energy1
6.37
6.63
6.32
6.23
6.15
6.07
6.17
-0.3%
Petroleum Products²
7.63
8.51
8.67
9.20
9.42
9.54
9.70
0.5%
Distillate Fuel
6.39
7.09
7.15
7.47
7.55
7.64
7.71
0.3%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
10.46
11.59
11.56
12.21
12.45
12.43
12.57
0.3%
Natural Gas
6.07
6.19
5.77
5.55
5.42
5.32
5.44
-0.5%
Electricity
25.00
24.65
22.93
22.04
21.43
20.40
20.01
-0.9%
Commercial
12.77
12.92
12.33
11.84
11.63
11.19
11.15
-0.6%
Primary Energy1
5.01
5.26
4.91
4.82
4.79
4.77
4.91
-0.3%
Petroleum Products2
5.11
5.56
5.54
5.87
6.02
6.12
6.25
0.5%
Distillate Fuel
4.49
5.27
5.23
5.53
5.65
5.75
5.86
0.4%
Residual Fuel
3.22
3.24
2.97
3.06
3.16
3.28
3.40
0.2%
Natural Gas3
5.07
5.28
4.88
4.71
4.66
4.62
4.77
-0.4%
Electricity
22.30
22.24
21.02
19.81
19.16
18.02
17.58
-1.0%
Industrial⁴
4.97
5.40
4.92
5.04
5.15
5.10
5.21
-0.1%
Primary Energy
3.41
4.03
3.59
3.79
3.97
4.04
4.20
0.2%
Petroleum Products2
4.97
5.68
4.96
5.32
5.53
5.55
5.70
0.0%
Distillate Fuel
4.72
5.50
5.24
5.56
5.74
5.88
6.07
0.4%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
6.63
7.80
5.98
6.60
6.76
6.64
6.81
-0.6%
Residual Fuel
2.64
3.00
2.70
2.83
3.02
3.15
3.35
0.5%
Natural Gas5
2.37
2.96
2.73
2.77
2.93
3.00
3.17
0.3%
Metallurgical Coal
1.81
1.77
1.76
1.71
1.68
1.67
1.66
-0.3%
Steam Coal
1.50
1.46
1.41
1.36
1.33
1.31
1.30
-0.5%
Electricity
14.00
13.54
12.68
11.93
11.41
10.59
10.26
-1.1%
Transportation
8.20
8.77
8.53
8.78
8.83
8.86
8.87
0.0%
Primary Energy
8.18
8.76
8.52
8.76
8.81
8.84
8.85
0.0%
Petroleum Products2
8.18
8.76
8.52
8.77
8.80
8.82
8.82
0.0%
Distillate Fuel
8.22
8.90
8.53
8.74
8.61
8.60
8.52
-0.2%
Jet Fuel⁷
4.18
5.52
5.12
5.58
5.85
6.05
6.27
0.5%
Motor Gasoline®
9.46
9.89
9.78
10.06
10.18
10.22
10.24
0.1%
Residual Fuel
2.33
2.55
2.61
2.85
3.07
3.14
3.32
1.1%
Liquid Petroleum Gas9
12.44
12.62
12.80
13.27
13.30
13.07
13.01
0.1%
Natural Gas¹⁰
5.41
5.41
5.46
5.72
6.60
7.06
7.39
1.3%
E85"
15.25
15.85
15.81
16.30
16.71
17.04
17.79
0.5%
Electricity
15.39
15.31
14.66
13.69
13.25
12.54
12.26
-0.9%
Average End-Use Energy
8.29
8.68
8.26
8.33
8.35
8.28
8.35
-0.2%
Primary Energy
7.91
8.35
7.94
8.05
8.09
8.04
8.11
-0.1%
Electricity
20.41
20.19
18.93
17.94
17.32
16.36
16.01
-1.0%
Electric Generators¹²
Fossil Fuel Average
1.51
1.54
1.46
1.49
1.57
1.60
1.66
0.3%
Petroleum Products
2.94
3.28
3.21
3.57
3.84
4.00
4.21
1.1%
Distillate Fuel
4.01
4.90
4.84
5.16
5.33
5.47
5.64
0.6%
Residual Fuel
2.68
3.07
2.95
3.20
3.46
3.60
3.77
0.9%
Natural Gas
2.03
2.64
2.48
2.63
2.84
2.98
3.15
0.7%
Steam Coal
1.35
1.29
1.20
1.14
1.09
1.03
0.97
-1.2%
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 . DRAFT - November 7, 1997
5
Table A3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued)
(1996 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Sector and Source
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Average Price to All Users13
Petroleum Products²
7.26
7.86
7.59
7.92
8.02
8.06
8.12
0.1%
Distillate Fuel
7.08
7.84
7.65
7.92
7.88
7.91
7.90
0.0%
Jet Fuel
4.18
5.52
5.12
5.58
5.85
6.05
6.27
0.5%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
7.38
8.53
7.12
7.84
8.09
8.05
8.24
-0.1%
Motor Gasoline
9.46
9.89
9.76
10.05
10.16
10.21
10.23
0.1%
Residual Fuel
2.56
2.84
2.73
2.92
3.12
3.21
3.38
0.7%
Natural Gas
3.63
4.13
3.74
3.66
3.70
3.72
3.86
-0.3%
Coal
1.38
1.32
1.22
1.16
1.11
1.05
1.00
-1.2%
E8511
15.25
15.85
15.81
16.30
16.71
17.04
17.79
0.5%
Electricity
20.41
20.19
18.93
17.94
17.32
16.36
16.01
-1.0%
Non-Renewable Energy Expenditures
by Sector (Billion 1996 dollars)
Residential
113.43
117.09
118.69
124.21
130.36
134.72
143.05
0.8%
Commercial
92.62
96.47
96.19
97.11
99.96
99.87
100.74
0.2%
Industrial
122.76
136.22
130.95
140.45
151.07
152.83
157.75
0.6%
Transportation
190.86
210.35
224.71
254.98
278.70
293.73
306.35
1.6%
Total Non-Renewable Expenditures
519.68
560.12
570.54
616.74
660.09
681.15
707.89
1.0%
Transportation Renewable Expenditures
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.45
1.47
2.25
2.79
21.1%
Total Expenditures
519.70
560.15
570.59
617.19
661.57
683.40
710.68
1.0%
'Weighted average price includes fuels below as well as coal.
This quantity is the weighted average for all petroleum products, not just those listed below.
Excludes independent power producers.
"Includes cogenerators.
"Excludes uses for lease and plant fuel.
*Low sulfur diesel fuel. Price includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
'Kerosene-type jet fuel. Price includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
"Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal and State taxes and excludes county and local taxes.
"Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
1°Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes.
"E85 is 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable).
"Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
"Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Note: 1995 and 1996 figures may differ from published data due to internal rounding.
Sources: 1995 prices for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on prices in the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 1995. Online.
tt:/www.eia.doe.gov/oi-gas/pmal/pmaframe.html (May 30, 1997). 1996 prices for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on prices in various issues of EIA, Petroleum
Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(96/13-97/4) (Washington, DC, 1996-97). 1995 and 1996 prices for all other petroleum products are derived from the EIA, State Energy Price
and Expenditure Report 1994, DOE/EIA-0376(94) (Washington, DC, June 1997). 1995 residential, commercial, and transportation natural gas delivered prices: EIA, Natural Gas
Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC, November 1996). 1995 electric generators natural gas delivered prices: Form FERC-423, "Monthly Report of Cost and Quality
of Fuels for Electric Plants." 1995 and 1996 industrial gas delivered prices are based on EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey 1991. 1996 residential and commercial
natural gas delivered prices: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/6) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1996 natural gas delivered prices: EIA, AEO98 National Energy
Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A. Values for 1995 and 1996 coal prices have been estimated from EIA, State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1994, DOE/EIA-
0376(94) (Washington, DC, June 1997) by use of consumption quantities aggregated from EIA, State Energy Data Report 1994. Online.
ftp://tp.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pd (August 26, 1997) and the Coal Industry Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0584(96) (Washington, DC, November 1997). 1995 residential
electricity prices derived from EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/ndex.html (August 21, 1997). 1995
and 1996 electricity prices for commercial, industrial, and transportation: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National
Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
6
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Key Indicators and Consumption
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Key Indicators
Households (millions)
Single-Family
68.66
69.61
73.26
77.46
81.54
85.60
89.52
1.1%
Multifamily
24.56
24.76
25.54
26.54
27.92
29.44
30.84
0.9%
Mobile Homes
5.84
6.00
6.54
7.08
7.58
8.01
8.35
1.4%
Total
99.06
100.37
105.34
111.08
117.04
123.05
128.71
1.0%
Average House Square Footage
1643.1
1648.8
1669.1
1689.1
1703.9
1716.3
1727.9
0.2%
Energy Intensity
(million Btu consumed per household)
Delivered Energy Consumption
106.41
110.90
107.87
105.95
104.63
103.79
102.91
-0.3%
Electricity Related Losses
80.78
83.37
83.92
82.23
80.73
78.15
77.20
-0.3%
Total Energy Consumption
187.19
194.27
191.79
188.18
185.37
181.95
180.11
-0.3%
Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel
Electricity
Space Heating
0.44
0.47
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.51
0.53
0.5%
Space Cooling
0.49
0.46
0.48
0.51
0.54
0.58
0.60
1.1%
Water Heating
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.5%
Refrigeration
0.41
0.41
0.36
0.31
0.28
0.27
0.27
-1.6%
Cooking
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
1.0%
Clothes Dryers
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.24
0.25
1.1%
Freezers
0.13
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
-2.4%
Lighting
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.39
0.42
0.45
1.2%
Clothes Washers'
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.8%
Dishwashers'
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.6%
Color Televisions
0.19
0.21
0.25
0.30
0.32
0.35
0.37
2.5%
Personal Computers
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
5.3%
Furnace Fans
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.18
1.7%
Other Uses2
0.71
0.78
1.06
1.29
1.49
1.68
1.86
3.7%
Delivered Energy
3.56
3.68
3.97
4.29
4.61
4.94
5.28
1.5%
Natural Gas
Space Heating
3.45
3.76
3.72
3.78
3.87
3.97
4.04
0.3%
Space Cooling
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
8.1%
Water Heating
1.24
1.32
1.32
1.37
1.43
1.49
1.55
0.7%
Cooking
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.6%
Clothes Dryers
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
1.0%
Other Uses3
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.8%
Delivered Energy
4.98
5.39
5.35
5.47
5.63
5.82
5.97
0.4%
Distillate
Space Heating
0.80
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.67
0.64
0.62
-1.0%
Water Heating
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.1%
Other Uses4
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.6%
Delivered Energy
0.89
0.89
0.85
0.79
0.77
0.74
0.72
-0.9%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Space Heating
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.5%
Water Heating
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.11
1.8%
Cooking
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
1.1%
Other Uses³
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
1.5%
Delivered Energy
0.40
0.42
0.45
0.47
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.8%
Marketed Renewables (wood)5
0.59
0.61
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.2%
Other Fuels
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.12
-0.4%
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
7
Table A4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Key Indicators and Consumption
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use
Space Heating
5.69
6.09
6.00
6.04
6.13
6.24
6.31
0.1%
Space Cooling
0.49
0.46
0.48
0.52
0.55
0.58
0.61
1.2%
Water Heating
1.76
1.84
1.86
1.91
1.99
2.08
2.17
0.7%
Refrigeration
0.41
0.41
0.36
0.31
0.28
0.27
0.27
-1.6%
Cooking
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.40
0.8%
Clothes Dryers
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
1.1%
Freezers
0.13
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
-2.4%
Lighting
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.39
0.42
0.45
1.2%
Clothes Washers
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.8%
Dishwashers
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.6%
Color Televisions
0.19
0.21
0.25
0.30
0.32
0.35
0.37
2.5%
Personal Computers
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
5.3%
Furnace Fans
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.18
1.7%
Other Uses⁷
0.80
0.89
1.17
1.40
1.61
1.80
1.99
3.4%
Delivered Energy
10.54
11.13
11.36
11.77
12.25
12.77
13.25
0.7%
Electricity Related Losses
7.88
8.23
8.75
9.05
9.39
9.58
9.93
0.8%
Total Energy Consumption by End-Use
Space Heating
6.65
7.13
7.03
7.06
7.15
7.24
7.30
0.1%
Space Cooling
1.57
1.50
1.54
1.60
1.66
1.70
1.74
0.6%
Water Heating
2.55
2.66
2.64
2.68
2.76
2.84
2.93
0.4%
Refrigeration
1.32
1.32
1.15
0.97
0.86
0.80
0.79
-2.1%
Cooking
0.59
0.62
0.63
0.65
0.67
0.69
0.72
0.6%
Clothes Dryers
0.64
0.67
0.68
0.70
0.73
0.76
0.79
0.7%
Freezers
0.43
0.42
0.34
0.27
0.23
0.21
0.21
-2.9%
Lighting
1.05
1.09
1.12
1.12
1.20
1.24
1.30
0.7%
Clothes Washers
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.3%
Dishwashers
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.2%
Color Televisions
0.62
0.67
0.81
0.93
0.98
1.02
1.08
2.0%
Personal Computers
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
4.8%
Furnace Fans
0.36
0.38
0.41
0.43
0.46
0.48
0.51
1.2%
Other Uses⁷
2.37
2.64
3.50
4.13
4.64
5.06
5.48
3.1%
Total
18.42
19.36
20.11
20.81
21.64
22.35
23.17
0.8%
Non-Marketed Renewables
Geothermal®
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
7.1%
Solar
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.3%
Total
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
5.0%
'Does not include water heating of load.
2Includes small electric devices, heating elements and motors.
"Includes such appliances as swimming pool heaters, outdoor grills, and outdoor lighting (natural gas).
"Includes such appliances as swimming pool and hot tub heaters.
"Includes wood used for primary and secondary heating in wood stoves or fireplaces as reported in the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 1993.
*Includes kerosene and coal.
Includes all other uses listed above.
*Includes primary energy displaced by geothermal heat pumps in space heating and cooling applications.
*Includes primary energy displaced by solar thermal water heaters.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 and 1996: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997).
Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
8
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Key Indicators and Consumption
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Key Indicators
Total Floor Space (billion square feet)
Surviving
68.5
69.2
73.1
77.3
81.1
84.3
85.7
0.9%
New Additions
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.1
-1.7%
Total
70.1
70.9
74.9
79.0
82.8
85.8
86.8
0.8%
Energy Consumption Intensity
(thousand Btu per square foot)
Delivered Energy Consumption
103.6
105.3
104.2
103.8
103.8
104.0
104.2
-0.0%
Electricity Related Losses
102.9
106.3
105.7
102.4
100.8
97.7
96.4
-0.4%
Total Energy Consumption
206.5
211.5
209.9
206.2
204.5
201.7
200.5
-0.2%
Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel
Electricity
Space Heating
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.9%
Space Cooling
0.57
0.51
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.56
0.4%
Water Heating
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.14
-0.8%
Ventilation
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.18
0.4%
Cooking
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
-1.0%
Lighting
1.14
1.15
1.20
1.22
1.24
1.27
1.28
0.4%
Refrigeration
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.7%
Office Equipment (PC)
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.10
1.6%
Office Equipment (non-PC)
0.19
0.19
0.21
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.33
2.2%
Other Uses'
0.66
0.82
0.95
1.12
1.29
1.43
1.53
2.6%
Delivered Energy
3.26
3.37
3.59
3.84
4.09
4.33
4.45
1.2%
Natural Gas2
Space Heating
1.29
1.34
1.33
1.37
1.40
1.42
1.40
0.2%
Space Cooling
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.6%
Water Heating
0.46
0.45
0.47
0.50
0.52
0.54
0.55
0.8%
Cooking
0.18
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.23
1.1%
Other Uses³
1.17
1.31
1.44
1.52
1.59
1.64
1.65
1.0%
Delivered Energy
3.11
3.30
3.47
3.62
3.75
3.85
3.85
0.7%
Distillate
Space Heating
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.15
-1.0%
Water Heating
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
-1.1%
Other Uses4
0.22
0.19
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
-0.3%
Delivered Energy
0.47
0.44
0.41
0.40
0.40
0.39
0.37
-0.7%
Other Fuels5
0.42
0.36
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.36
0.0%
Marketed Renewable Fuels
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.1%
Delivered Energy
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.1%
Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use
Space Heating
1.60
1.65
1.65
1.68
1.71
1.73
1.70
0.1%
Space Cooling
0.60
0.53
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.58
0.4%
Water Heating
0.68
0.68
0.69
0.70
0.72
0.73
0.73
0.3%
Ventilation
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.18
0.4%
Cooking
0.21
0.21
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.8%
Lighting
1.14
1.15
1.20
1.22
1.24
1.27
1.28
0.4%
Refrigeration
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.7%
Office Equipment (PC)
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.10
1.6%
Office Equipment (non-PC)
0.19
0.19
0.21
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.33
2.2%
Other Uses6
2.47
2.68
2.89
3.16
3.41
3.61
3.71
1.4%
Delivered Energy
7.26
7.47
7.80
8.21
8.60
8.92
9.04
0.8%
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT - November 7, 1997
9
Table A5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Key Indicators and Consumption
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Electricity Related Losses
7.21
7.54
7.91
8.09
8.35
8.39
8.37
0.4%
Total Energy Consumption by End-Use
Space Heating
1.85
1.92
1.92
1.96
1.99
2.01
1.98
0.1%
Space Cooling
1.87
1.66
1.71
1.69
1.69
1.67
1.63
-0.1%
Water Heating
1.07
1.06
1.05
1.04
1.04
1.02
1.00
-0.2%
Ventilation
0.54
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.56
0.54
0.53
-0.1%
Cooking
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.3%
Lighting
3.67
3.73
3.83
3.78
3.77
3.74
3.67
-0.1%
Refrigeration
0.45
0.45
0.47
0.47
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.2%
Office Equipment (PC)
0.22
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.26
0.27
0.29
1.2%
Office Equipment (non-PC)
0.60
0.62
0.68
0.74
0.82
0.88
0.94
1.7%
Other Uses
3.92
4.51
4.98
5.52
6.03
6.39
6.58
1.6%
Total
14.46
15.01
15.72
16.30
16.94
17.31
17.41
0.6%
Non-Marketed Renewable Fuels
Solar⁷
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
4.2%
Total
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
4.2%
'Includes miscellaneous uses, such as service station equipment, district services, automated teller machines, telecommunications equipment, and medical equipment.
2Excludes estimated consumption from independent power producers.
'Includes miscellaneous uses, such as district services, pumps, lighting, emergency electric generators, and manufacturing performed in commercial buildings.
"Includes miscellaneous uses, such as cooking, district services, and emergency electric generators.
"Includes residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene.
*Includes miscellaneous uses, such as service station equipment, district services, automated teller machines, telecommunications equipment, medical equipment, pumps,
lighting, emergency electric generators, manufacturing performed in commercial buildings, and cooking (distillate), plus residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, coal, motor
gasoline, and kerosene.
Includes primary energy displaced by solar thermal water heaters.
Btu = British thermal unit.
PC = Personal computer.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Consumption values of 0.00 are values that round to 0.00, because they are less than 0.005.
Sources: 1995 and 1996 Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook August 1997, Online.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
10
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Key Indicators and Consumption
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Key Indicators
Value of Gross Output (billion 1987 dollars)
Manufacturing
2950
3030
3324
3801
4318
4646
4957
2.1%
Nonmanufacturing
759
774
835
897
969
1019
1062
1.3%
Total
3709
3805
4159
4698
5287
5665
6019
1.9%
Energy Prices (1996 dollars per million Btu)
Electricity
14.00
13.54
12.68
11.93
11.41
10.59
10.26
-1.1%
Natural Gas
2.37
2.96
2.73
2.77
2.93
3.00
3.17
0.3%
Steam Coal
1.50
1.46
1.41
1.36
1.33
1.31
1.30
-0.5%
Residual Oil
2.64
3.00
2.70
2.83
3.02
3.15
3.35
0.5%
Distillate Oil
4.72
5.50
5.24
5.56
5.74
5.88
6.07
0.4%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
6.63
7.80
5.98
6.60
6.76
6.64
6.81
-0.6%
Motor Gasoline
9.40
9.86
8.46
8.91
9.17
9.40
9.56
-0.1%
Metallurgical Coal
1.81
1.77
1.76
1.71
1.68
1.67
1.66
-0.3%
Energy Consumption
Consumption¹
Purchased Electricity
3.46
3.46
3.69
4.05
4.37
4.58
4.75
1.3%
Natural Gas2
9.91
10.14
10.94
11.16
11.67
11.77
11.80
0.6%
Steam Coal
1.60
1.55
1.56
1.70
1.77
1.78
1.79
0.6%
Metallurgical Coal and Coke³
0.91
0.85
0.86
0.81
0.77
0.73
0.69
-0.9%
Residual Fuel
0.37
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.34
0.35
0.1%
Distillate
1.13
1.17
1.21
1.35
1.45
1.51
1.56
1.2%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
2.00
2.12
2.14
2.25
2.40
2.45
2.47
0.6%
Petrochemical Feedstocks
1.23
1.28
1.31
1.38
1.47
1.49
1.51
0.7%
Other Petroleum4
3.96
4.31
4.55
4.83
5.09
5.31
5.36
0.9%
Renewables⁵
1.74
1.82
1.96
2.11
2.25
2.31
2.34
1.0%
Delivered Energy
26.30
27.05
28.57
29.97
31.58
32.27
32.62
0.8%
Electricity Related Losses
7.65
7.74
8.14
8.53
8.92
8.88
8.93
0.6%
Total
33.95
34.79
36.71
38.50
40.50
41.15
41.55
0.7%
Consumption per Unit of Output'
(thousand Btu per 1987 dollars)
Purchased Electricity
0.93
0.91
0.89
0.86
0.83
0.81
0.79
-0.6%
Natural Gas2
2.67
2.66
2.63
2.37
2.21
2.08
1.96
-1.3%
Steam Coal
0.43
0.41
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.31
0.30
-1.3%
Metallurgical Coal and Coke3
0.25
0.22
0.21
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.11
-2.7%
Residual Fuel
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
-1.8%
Distillate
0.30
0.31
0.29
0.29
0.27
0.27
0.26
-0.7%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
0.54
0.56
0.51
0.48
0.45
0.43
0.41
-1.3%
Petrochemical Feedstocks
0.33
0.34
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.26
0.25
-1.2%
Other Petroleum4
1.07
1.13
1.09
1.03
0.96
0.94
0.89
-1.0%
Renewables5
0.47
0.48
0.47
0.45
0.42
0.41
0.39
-0.9%
Delivered Energy
7.09
7.11
6.87
6.38
5.97
5.70
5.42
-1.1%
Electricity Related Losses
2.06
2.04
1.96
1.82
1.69
1.57
1.48
-1.3%
Total
9.15
9.14
8.83
8.20
7.66
7.26
6.90
-1.2%
'Fuel consumption includes consumption for cogeneration.
2Includes lease and plant fuel, and consumption by cogenerators, excludes consumption by nonutility generators.
"Includes net coke coal imports.
"Includes petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, motor gasoline, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products.
*Includes consumption of energy from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, and other biomass.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 prices for gasoline and distillate are based on prices in the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0487(95)
(Washington, DC, September 1996). 1996 prices for gasoline and distillate are based on prices in various issues of EIA, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(96/03-97/04)
(Washington, DC, 1996 97). 1995 and 1996 coal prices: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(97/08) (Washington, DC, August 1997). 1995 and 1996 electricity prices:
EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A. Other 1995 values and 1996 prices derived from EIA, State Energy Data Report 1994. Online.
ftp://tpeia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997). Other 1996 values: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo
/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO988.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
11
Table A7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Key Indicators and Consumption
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Key Indicators
Level of Travel (billions)
Light-Duty Vehicles <8,500 lbs. (VMT)
2150
2275
2454
2665
2892
3077
3242
1.5%
Commercial Light Trucks (VMT)¹
66
67
72
80
87
93
98
1.6%
Freight Trucks >10,000 lbs. (VMT)
152
161
188
212
232
243
250
1.8%
Air (seat miles available)
937
999
1230
1518
1855
2139
2416
3.7%
Rail (ton miles traveled)
1275
1204
1334
1432
1533
1584
1623
1.3%
Marine (ton miles traveled)
774
777
815
868
923
949
967
0.9%
Energy Efficiency Indicators
New Car (miles per gallon)2
27.7
27.9
28.0
29.5
30.2
30.5
30.7
0.4%
New Light Truck (miles per gallon)2
20.4
20.7
19.3
19.8
20.1
20.5
21.1
0.1%
Light-Duty Fleet (miles per gallon)³
20.0
20.2
20.3
20.2
20.3
20.7
21.2
0.2%
New Commercial Light Truck (MPG)¹
19.9
20.2
18.9
19.4
19.6
20.0
20.6
0.1%
Stock Commercial Light Truck (MPG)¹
14.3
14.5
14.7
14.9
15.0
15.2
15.4
0.3%
Aircraft Efficiency (seat miles per gallon)
50.2
50.6
52.1
53.9
55.7
57.4
59.0
0.6%
Freight Truck Efficiency (miles per gallon)
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.1
0.4%
Rail Efficiency (ton miles per thousand Btu)
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
0.5%
Domestic Shipping Efficiency
(ton miles per thousand Btu)
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
0.5%
Energy Use by Mode (quadrillion Btu)
Light-Duty Vehicles
13.63
13.96
15.04
16.48
17.76
18.55
19.20
1.3%
Commercial Light Trucks1
0.58
0.58
0.62
0.67
0.73
0.76
0.79
1.3%
Freight Trucks
3.84
4.02
4.54
4.99
5.32
5.47
5.58
1.4%
Air
3.18
3.32
3.87
4.52
5.27
5.84
6.35
2.7%
Rail
0.55
0.52
0.57
0.59
0.62
0.63
0.63
0.8%
Marine
1.39
1.43
1.51
1.71
1.91
2.09
2.25
1.9%
Pipeline Fuel
0.72
0.73
0.80
0.85
0.95
0.99
1.03
1.4%
Other4
0.24
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.32
0.33
1.3%
Total
24.00
24.72
27.14
29.97
32.77
34.54
36.04
1.6%
1Commercial trucks 8,500 to 10,000 pounds.
2Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon.
3Combined car and light truck "on-the-road" estimate.
"Includes lubricants and aviation gasoline.
Btu = British thermal unit.
VMT=Vehicle miles traveled.
MPG = Miles per gallon.
Lbs. = Pounds.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 pipeline fuel consumption: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC, November 1996). Other
1995 values: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 1995 (Washington, DC, 1995); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book: 12, 13, 14,
15, and 16, (Oak Ridge, TN, July 1996); Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1994-2007; National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration,
Summary of Fuel Economy Performance, (Washington, DC, February 1996); EIA, Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey 1991, DOE/EIA-0464(91) (Washington,
DC, December 1993); U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Truck Inventory and Use Survey", TC92-T-52, (Washington D.C., May 1995); EIA, Describing Current
and Potential Markets for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles, DOE/EIA-0604(96) (Washington, D.C., March 1996); EIA, Alternatives To Traditional Transportation Fuels 1994, DOE/EIA-
0585(94) (Washington, DC, February 1996); and EIA, State Energy Data Report 1994. Online. ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997). 1996: FAA,
FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1996-2007, (Washington, DC, February 1995); EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online.
http://ww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997); EIA, Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 1996, DOE/EIA-0535(96) (Washington, DC, September 1997);
and United States Department of Defense, Defense Fuel Supply Center. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
12
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Supply, Disposition, and Prices
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Generation by Fuel Type
Electric Generators¹
Coal
1671
1758
1903
2007
2085
2190
2265
1.1%
Petroleum
64
80
54
37
35
33
32
-3.8%
Natural Gas
322
288
419
671
920
1171
1389
6.8%
Nuclear Power
673
675
689
643
596
480
383
-2.3%
Pumped Storage
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
1.3%
Renewable Sources2
354
392
370
377
382
388
393
0.0%
Total
3083
3191
3432
3732
4015
4258
4459
1.4%
Non-Utility Generation for Own Use
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
0.0%
Cogenerators
Coal
37
39
37
38
39
39
39
-0.1%
Petroleum
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
0.2%
Natural Gas
170
174
184
192
201
200
194
0.5%
Other Gaseous Fuels4
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
0.0%
Renewable Sources2
37
41
42
43
43
43
42
0.1%
Other5
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
0.2%
Total
259
270
278
289
299
299
291
0.3%
Sales to Utilities
119
121
124
125
127
127
126
0.2%
Generation for Own Use
140
149
155
163
172
172
165
0.4%
Net Imports
38
38
39
33
30
27
27
-1.4%
Electricity Sales by Sector
Residential
1042
1079
1164
1258
1350
1449
1548
1.5%
Commercial
954
988
1053
1125
1200
1268
1304
1.2%
Industrial
1013
1014
1083
1186
1282
1343
1392
1.3%
Transportation
17
17
19
32
46
55
64
5.6%
Total
3026
3098
3318
3601
3877
4115
4308
1.4%
End-Use Prices (1996 cents per kilowatthour)
Residential
8.5
8.4
7.8
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.8
-0.9%
Commercial
7.6
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.5
6.1
6.0
-1.0%
Industrial
4.8
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.5
-1.1%
Transportation
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.2
-0.9%
All Sectors Average
7.0
6.9
6.5
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.5
-1.0%
'Includes grid-connected generation at all utilities and nonutilities except for cogenerators. Includes small power producers, exempt wholesale generators, and generators at
industrial and commercial facilities which provide electricity for on-site use and for sales to utilities.
"Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power.
Cogenerators produce electricity and other useful thermal energy. Includes sales to utilities and generation for own use.
"Other gaseous fuels include refinery and still gas.
"Other includes hydrogen, sulfur, batteries, chemicals, fish oil, and spent sulfite liquor.
In 1996 approximately two-thirds of the U.S. electricity imports were provided by renewable sources (hydroelectricity); EIA does not project future proportions.
Prices represent average revenue per kilowatthour.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 and 1996 commercial and transportation sales derived from: Total transportation plus commercial sales come from Energy Information Administration (EIA), State
Energy Data Report 1994. Online. ftp://tp.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997), but individual sectors do not match because sales taken from commercial
and placed in transportation, according to Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Transportation Energy Data Book 16 (July 1996) which indicates the transportation value should be
higher. 1995 and 1996 generation by electric utilities, nonutilities, and cogenerators, net electricity imports, residential sales, and industrial sales: EIA, Annual Energy Review 1996,
DOE/EIA-0384(96) (Washington, DC, July 1997). 1995 and 1996 residential electricity prices derived from EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). 1995 and 1996 electricity prices for commercial, industrial, and transportation; price
components; and projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 . DRAFT - November 7, 1997
13
Table A9. Electricity Generating Capability
(Thousand Megawatts)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Net Summer Capability1
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Electric Generators²
Capability
Coal Steam
305.5
305.3
296.8
302.1
304.6
316.0
323.6
0.2%
Other Fossil Steam3
139.3
138.1
121.3
103.6
101.0
97.1
96.0
-1.5%
Combined Cycle
14.7
15.3
27.7
71.3
106.5
154.9
186.5
11.0%
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
55.4
80.0
140.4
176.2
191.4
210.1
221.9
4.3%
Nuclear Power
99.6
100.8
95.6
86.8
80.4
63.9
49.2
-2.9%
Pumped Storage
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.9
N/A
Fuel Cells
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Renewable Sources
88.5
88.6
91.3
92.9
93.6
94,7
95.7
0.3%
Total
722.9
748.0
792.8
852.7
897.3
956.7
992.8
1.2%
Cumulative Planned Additions⁵
Coal Steam
1.2
2.4
3.2
3.2
4.7
4.7
4.7
3.0%
Other Fossil Steam3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.2%
Combined Cycle
1.4
2.0
2.7
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.0
1.5%
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
2.8
3.8
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
1.3%
Nuclear Power
0.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
N/A
Pumped Storage
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
N/A
Fuel Cells
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Renewable Sources
0.7
0.7
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
6.3%
Total
7.4
11.3
16.3
16.6
18.5
18.5
18.5
2.1%
Cumulative Unplanned Additions5
Coal Steam
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.3
16.9
32.1
45.4
N/A
Other Fossil Steam3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Combined Cycle
0.0
0.0
11.1
54.7
89.7
138.1
169.7
N/A
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
0.0
23.6
82.7
119.1
134.6
154.5
166.3
8.5%
Nuclear Power
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Pumped Storage
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Fuel Cells
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Renewable Sources
0.4
0.5
0.7
2.0
2.8
4.2
5.4
10.8%
Total
0.4
24.1
94.4
189.1
244.0
328.9
386.7
12.3%
Cumulative Total Additions
7.8
35.4
110.8
205.6
262.5
347.4
405.2
10.7%
Cumulative Retirements
11.9
14.4
45.9
80.1
92.4
117.1
138.8
9.9%
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 . DRAFT - November 7, 1997
15
Table A9. Electricity Generating Capability (Continued)
(Thousand Megawatts)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Net Summer Capability1
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Cogenerators⁷
Capability
Coal
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.7
7.7
0.3%
Petroleum
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.6%
Natural Gas
27.4
28.0
30.5
31.6
32.7
32.7
31.9
0.5%
Other Gaseous Fuels
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
-0.1%
Renewable Sources
5.8
5.8
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.4
0.4%
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Total
42.4
43.0
46.4
47.9
49.3
49.3
48.3
0.5%
Cumulative Additions⁵
7.4
8.1
11.4
12.9
14.4
14.3
13.4
2.1%
'Net summer capability is the steady hourly output that generating equipment is expected to supply to system load (exclusive of auxiliary power), as demonstrated by tests during
summer peak demand.
2Includes grid-connected utilities and nonutilities except for cogenerators. Includes small power producers, exempt wholesale generators, and generators at industrial and
commercial facilities which produce electricity for on-site use and sales to utilities.
3Includes oil-, gas-, and dual-fired capability.
"Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar and wind power.
"Cumulative additions after December 31, 1995. Non-zero utility planned additions in 1995 indicate units operational in 1995 but not supplying power to the grid.
*Cumulative total retirements from 1990.
Nameplate capacity is reported for nonutilities on Form EIA-867, "Annual Power Producer Report." Nameplate capacity is designated by the manufacturer. The nameplate
capacity has been converted to the net summer capability based on historic relationships.
N/A = Not applicable.
Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Net summer capability has been estimated for nonutility generators for AEO98. Net summer
capacity is used to be consistent with electric utility capacity estimates. Data for electric utility capacity are the most recent data available as of August 25, 1997. Therefore,
capacity estimates may differ from other Energy Information Administration sources.
Sources: 1995 and 1996 net summer capability at electric utilities and planned additions: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860, "Annual Electric Generator
Report." Net summer capability for nonutilities and cogeneration in 1995 and 1996 and planned additions estimated based on EIA, Form EIA-867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer
Report." Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
16
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT November 7, 1997
Table A10. Electricity Trade
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Growth
Electricity Trade
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Interregional Electricity Trade
Gross Domestic Firm Power Sales
155.0
173.4
149.3
139.2
139.2
139.2
139.2
-0.9%
Gross Domestic Economy Sales
93.2
79.5
74.5
67.7
78.3
79.7
86.6
0.4%
Gross Domestic Trade
248.2
252.9
223.9
207.0
217.5
218.9
225.8
-0.5%
Gross Domestic Firm Power Sales
(million 1996 dollars)
7194.8
8050.2
6932.3
6462.9
6462.9
6462.9
6462.9
-0.9%
Gross Domestic Economy Sales
(million 1996 dollars)
2483.8
1812.7
1514.1
1446.9
1747.9
1712.8
1905.6
0.2%
Gross Domestic Sales
(million 1996 dollars)
9678.5
9862.9
8446.4
7909.8
8210.8
8175.6
8368.5
-0.7%
International Electricity Trade
Firm Power Imports From Canada and Mexico1
30.3
26.1
32.0
17.8
17.8
17.8
17.8
-1.6%
Economy Imports From Canada and Mexico'
18.0
20.7
22.2
35.7
33.6
30.1
30.1
1.6%
Gross Imports From Canada and Mexico1
48.3
46.8
54.2
53.4
51.4
47.9
47.9
0.1%
Firm Power Exports To Canada and Mexico
3.4
2.8
8.3
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.4
6.7%
Economy Exports To Canada and Mexico
7.2
6.4
6.4
7.0
7.7
7.7
7.7
0.7%
Gross Exports To Canada and Mexico
10.7
9.3
14.7
20.3
21.0
21.0
21.0
3.5%
'Historically electric imports were primarily from renewable resources, principally hydroelectric.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Firm Power Sales are capacity sales, meaning the delivery of the power is scheduled as part
of the normal operating conditions of the affected electric systems. Economy Sales are subject to curtailment or cessation of delivery by the supplier in accordance with prior
agreements or under specified conditions.
Sources: 1995 and 1996 interregional electricity trade data: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bulk Power Data System. 1995 and 1996 international electricity trade
data: DOE Form FE-718R, "Annual Report of International Electrical Export/Import Data." Firm/economy share: National Energy Board, Annual Report 1993. Planned interregional
and international firm power sales: DOE Form IE-411, "Coordinated Bulk Power Supply Program Report," April 1995. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System
run AEO98B.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
17
Table A11. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance
(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Growth
Supply and Disposition
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Crude Oil
Domestic Crude Production1
6.56
6.48
6.17
5.82
5.57
5.24
4.92
-1.1%
Alaska
1.48
1.40
1.13
0.93
0.75
0.60
0.48
-4.3%
Lower 48 States
5.08
5.08
5.04
4.89
4.82
4.64
4.44
-0.6%
Net Imports
7.14
7.40
8.75
10.14
10.67
11.22
11.65
1.9%
Other Crude Supply2
0.28
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
N/A
Total Crude Supply
13.98
14.21
14.92
15.96
16.24
16.46
16.58
0.6%
Natural Gas Plant Liquids
1.76
1.83
1.87
2.02
2.24
2.35
2.47
1.3%
Other Inputs
0.49
0.39
0.32
0.29
0.25
0.22
0.20
-2.7%
Refinery Processing Gain4
0.77
0.84
0.86
0.89
0.89
0.87
0.82
-0.1%
Net Product Imports5
0.75
1.10
1.42
1.96
3.00
3.70
4.33
5.9%
Total Primary Supply
17.75
18.37
19.39
21.12
22.63
23.60
24.40
1.2%
Refined Petroleum Products Supplied
Motor Gasoline⁷
7.83
7.99
8.52
9.18
9.75
10.10
10.39
1.1%
Jet Fuel
1.51
1.58
1.85
2.16
2.53
2.80
3.03
2.8%
Distillate Fuel
3.23
3.32
3.61
3.88
4.09
4.19
4.25
1.0%
Residual Fuel
0.85
0.90
0.81
0.81
0.88
0.93
0.99
0.4%
Other10
4.34
4.66
4.82
5.11
5.45
5.64
5.72
0.9%
Total
17.73
18.44
19.62
21.15
22.70
23.65
24.39
1.2%
Refined Petroleum Products Supplied
Residential and Commercial
1.15
1.13
1.11
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.08
-0.2%
Industrial11
4.58
4.87
5.02
5.33
5.65
5.82
5.89
0.8%
Transportation
11.79
12.11
13.26
14.57
15.81
16.60
17.27
1.5%
Electric Generators¹²
0.30
0.33
0.24
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.14
-3.5%
Total
17.73
18.44
19.62
21.15
22.70
23.65
24.39
1.2%
Discrepancy ¹
-0.01
-0.08
-0.23
-0.03
-0.08
-0.05
0.01
N/A
World Oil Price (1996 dollars per barrel)14
17.58
20.48
19.11
20.19
20.81
21.48
22.32
0.4%
Import Share of Product Supplied
0.44
0.46
0.52
0.57
0.60
0.63
0.66
1.5%
Net Expenditures for Imported Crude Oil and
Products (billion 1996 dollars)
50.34
62.27
71.35
90.49
106.39
120.20
133.54
3.2%
Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity
15.4
15.4
15.9
16.8
17.1
17.4
17.5
0.5%
Capacity Utilization Rate (percent)
92.0
94.0
94.1
95.1
95.2
95.2
95.2
0.1%
'Includes lease condensate.
"Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude products supplied.
"Includes alcohols, ethers, petroleum product stock withdrawals, domestic sources of blending components, and other hydrocarbons.
"Represents volumetric gain in refinery distillation and cracking processes.
"Includes net imports of finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, other hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, and blending components.
Total crude supply plus natural gas plant liquids, other inputs, refinery processing gain, and net petroleum imports.
Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.
*Includes naphtha and kerosene types.
*Includes distillate and kerosene.
"Includes aviation gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas, special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product
supplied, and miscellaneous petroleum products.
"Includes consumption by cogenerators.
12Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
"Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses and gains.
"Average refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil.
N/A = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 and 1996 expenditures for imported crude od and petroleum products based on internal calculations. 1995 and 1996 product supplied data from Table A2. Other
1995 data: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Supply Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0340(95) (Washington, DC, May 1996). Other 1996 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply
Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0340(96) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
18
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT . November 7, 1997
Table A12. Petroleum Product Prices
(1996 Cents per Gallon, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Sector and Fuel
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
World Oil Price (1996 dollars per barrel)
17.58
20.48
19.11
20.19
20.81
21.48
22.32
0.4%
Delivered Sector Product Prices
Residential
Distillate Fuel
88.6
98.4
99.2
103.5
104.8
106.0
107.0
0.3%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
90.3
100.0
99.8
105.4
107.5
107.3
108.5
0.3%
Commercial
Distillate Fuel
62.3
73.1
72.5
76.8
78.3
79.7
81.3
0.4%
Residual Fuel
48.2
48.4
44.5
45.7
47.3
49.2
50.9
0.2%
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel)
20.26
20.35
18.68
19.21
19.85
20.65
21.36
0.2%
Industrial¹
Distillate Fuel
65.5
76.3
72.7
77.2
79.6
81.5
84.2
0.4%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
57.3
67.3
51.6
57.0
58.4
57.3
58.8
-0.6%
Residual Fuel
39.6
45.0
40.4
42.3
45.2
47.2
50.1
0.5%
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel)
16.63
18.88
16.98
17.79
18.97
19.80
21.04
0.5%
Transportation
Diesel Fuel (distillate)²
114.1
123.5
118.4
121.3
119.4
119.3
118.2
-0.2%
Jet Fuel³
56.5
74.6
69.1
75.3
79.0
81.7
84.6
0.5%
Motor Gasoline4
117.6
122.5
121.2
124.7
126.0
126.6
126.8
0.1%
Residual Fuel
34.8
38.2
39.1
42.7
46.0
47.0
49.7
1.1%
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel)
14.63
16.04
16.41
17.95
19.32
19.75
20.88
1.1%
Electric Generators⁵
Distillate Fuel
55.6
68.0
67.1
71.6
73.9
75.9
78.2
0.6%
Residual Fuel
40.2
45.9
44.2
48.0
51.9
53.9
56.4
0.9%
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel)
16.87
19.27
18.55
20.15
21.78
22.64
23.70
0.9%
Refined Petroleum Product Prices
Distillate Fuel
98.1
108.7
106.1
109.8
109.2
109.7
109.6
0.0%
Jet Fuel³
56.5
74.6
69.1
75.3
79.0
81.7
84.6
0.5%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
63.7
73.6
61.5
67.7
69.8
69.4
71.1
-0.1%
Motor Gasoline4
117.6
122.5
121.0
124.5
125.9
126.4
126.7
0.1%
Residual Fuel
38.4
42.5
40.9
43.7
46.7
48.0
50.5
0.7%
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel)
16.12
17.87
17.19
18.35
19.63
20.15
21.23
0.7%
Average
95.0
102.8
99.8
103.8
104.9
105.4
106.0
0.1%
'Includes cogenerators. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and state taxes.
2Low sulfur diesel fuel. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
3Kerosene-type jet fuel.
"Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
*Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
"Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.
Sources: 1995 prices for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on prices in the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Petroleum Marketing Annual 1995. Online.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil-gas/pmal/pmaframe.html (May 30, 1997). 1996 prices for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on prices in various issues of EIA, Petroleum
Marketing Monthly. DOE/EIA-0380(96/03-97/04) (Washington, DC, 1996-97). 1995 and 1996 prices for all other petroleum products are derived from EIA, State Energy Price and
Expenditures Report: 1994, DOE/EIA-0376(94) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT November 7, 1997
19
Table A13. Natural Gas Supply and Disposition
(Trillion Cubic Feet per Year)
Reference
Annual
Supply and Disposition
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Production
Dry Gas Production¹
18.60
19.02
20.27
22.25
24.70
26.12
27.44
1.5%
Supplemental Natural Gas2
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.05
0.05
0.05
-3.6%
Net Imports
2.69
2.72
3.84
4.02
4.28
4.64
4.91
2.5%
Canada
2.79
2.76
3.86
3.89
4.13
4.50
4.80
2.3%
Mexico
-0.05
-0.02
-0.13
-0.14
-0.15
-0.15
-0.17
9.5%
Liquefied Natural Gas
-0.05
-0.03
0.12
0.27
0.29
0.29
0.29
N/A
Total Supply
21.40
21.86
24.23
26.39
29.03
30.81
32.41
1.7%
Consumption by Sector
Residential
4.84
5.23
5.20
5.31
5.47
5.66
5.80
0.4%
Commercial
3.03
3.20
3.37
3.52
3.65
3.74
3.75
0.7%
Industrial³
8.41
8.60
9.29
9.39
9.75
9.75
9.70
0.5%
Electric Generators
3.37
2.98
4.05
5.57
7.22
8.52
9.85
5.1%
Lease and Plant Fuel5
1.22
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.59
1.68
1.76
1.5%
Pipeline Fuel
0.70
0.71
0.78
0.82
0.93
0.96
1.00
1.4%
Transportation
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.15
0.23
0.29
0.33
15.8%
Total
21.58
21.99
24.08
26.22
28.84
30.61
32.20
1.6%
Discrepancy⁷
-0.18
-0.12
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.20
0.21
N/A
'Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses.
2Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural
gas.
3Includes consumption by cogenerators.
4Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
Represents natural gas used in the field gathering and processing plant machinery.
"Compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel.
Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure and the merger
of different data reporting systems which vary in scope, format, definition, and respondent type. In addition, 1995 and 1996 values include net storage injections.
Btu = British thermal unit.
N/A = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures for 1995 and 1996 may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors.
Sources: 1995 supply values and consumption as lease, plant, and pipeline fuel: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95)
(Washington, DC, November 1996). Other 1995 consumption derived from: EIA, State Energy Data Report 1994, Online. ftp://ft.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021497.pd (August
26, 1997). 1996 supplemental natural gas: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/6) (Washington, DC, June 1997). 1996 imports and dry gas production derived from:
EIA, Natural Gas Annual 1996,DOE/EIA-0131(96) (Washington, DC, November 1997). 1996 transportation sector consumption: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System
run AEO98B.D100197A. Other 1996 consumption: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August
21, 1997) with adjustments to end-use sector consumption levels for consumption of natural gas by electric wholesale generators based on EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling
System run AEO98B.D100197A. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
20
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A14. Natural Gas Prices, Margins, and Revenues
(1996 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Growth
Prices, Margins, and Revenue
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Source Price
Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price¹
1.61
2.24
2.11
2.15
2.31
2.38
2.54
0.5%
Average Import Price
1.53
1.98
1.96
2.14
2.32
2.40
2.56
1.1%
Average2
1.60
2.21
2.08
2.15
2.31
2.38
2.54
0.6%
Delivered Prices
Residential
6.25
6.37
5.93
5.71
5.58
5.47
5.60
-0.5%
Commercial
5.22
5.43
5.02
4.85
4.79
4.76
4.91
-0.4%
Industrial³
2.43
3.05
2.81
2.85
3.01
3.09
3.26
0.3%
Electric Generators
2.08
2.70
2.54
2.69
2.91
3.04
3.22
0.7%
Transportation⁵
5.57
5.57
5.62
5.89
6.79
7.26
7.61
1.3%
Average
3.73
4.25
3.85
3.76
3.80
3.83
3.97
-0.3%
Transmission and Distribution Margins⁷
Residential
4.65
4.17
3.85
3.56
3.27
3.09
3.05
-1.3%
Commercial
3.62
3.23
2.93
2.70
2.48
2.38
2.37
-1.3%
Industrial³
0.83
0.84
0.73
0.70
0.71
0.70
0.71
-0.7%
Electric Generators
0.48
0.49
0.45
0.54
0.60
0.66
0.68
1.3%
Transportation5
3.97
3.36
3.54
3.74
4.48
4.88
5.06
1.7%
Average
2.13
2.04
1.76
1.61
1.49
1.44
1.43
-1.5%
Transmission and Distribution Revenue
(billion 1996 dollars)
Residential
22.51
21.81
20.00
18.93
17.91
17.48
17.70
-0.9%
Commercial
10.94
10.34
9.88
9.50
9.05
8.88
8.87
-0.6%
Industrial³
7.02
7.23
6.75
6.60
6.89
6.87
6.92
-0.2%
Electric Generators
1.62
1.47
1.83
3.00
4.32
5.63
6.69
6.5%
Transportation5
0.04
0.03
0.16
0.56
1.04
1.43
1.68
17.8%
Total
42.13
40.88
38.64
38.60
39.21
40.29
41.87
0.1%
'Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.
2Quantity-weighted average of the average lower 48 wellhead price and the average price of imports at the U.S. border.
3Includes consumption by cogenerators.
"Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
"Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes.
"Weighted average prices and margins. Weights used are the sectoral consumption values excluding lease, plant, and pipeline fuel.
'Within the table, "transmission and distribution" margins equal the difference between the delivered price and the source price (average of the wellhead price and the price of
imports at the U.S. border) of natural gas and, thus, reflect the total cost of bringing natural gas to market. When the term "transmission and distribution" margins is used in today's
natural gas market, it generally does not include the cost of independent natural gas marketers or costs associated with aggregation of supplies, provisions of storage, and other
services. As used here, the term includes the cost of all services and the cost of pipeline fuel used in compressor stations.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 residential, commercial, and transportation delivered prices; average lower 48 wellhead price; and average import price: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC, November 1996). 1995 electric generators delivered price: Form FERC-423, "Monthly Report of Cost and Quality
of Fuels for Electric Plants". 1995 and 1996 industrial delivered prices based on EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey 1991. 1996 residential and commercial delivered
prices, average lower 48 wellhead price, and average import price: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/06) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1995 values, other
1996 values, and projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
21
Table A15. Oil and Gas Supply
Reference
Annual
Production and Supply
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Crude Oil
Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price1
(1996 dollars per barrel)
15.96
19.41
19.12
20.52
21.08
21.01
21.58
0.4%
Production (million barrels per day)2
U.S. Total
6.56
6.48
6.17
5.82
5.57
5.24
4.92
-1.1%
Lower 48 Onshore
3.82
3.76
3.39
3.13
3.15
3.13
3.09
-0.8%
Conventional
3.16
3.15
2.81
2.47
2.36
2.35
2.41
-1.1%
Enhanced Oil Recovery
0.66
0.61
0.58
0.66
0.79
0.78
0.68
0.5%
Lower 48 Offshore
1.26
1.32
1.65
1.75
1.67
1.52
1.35
0.1%
Alaska
1.48
1.40
1.13
0.93
0.75
0.60
0.48
-4.3%
Lower 48 End of Year Reserves (billion
17.03
16.82
15.25
14.69
14.87
14.67
14.33
-0.7%
Natural Gas
Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price1
(1996 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
1.61
2.24
2.11
2.15
2.31
2.38
2.54
0.5%
Production (trillion cubic feet)3
U.S. Total
18.60
19.01
20.27
22.25
24.70
26.12
27.44
1.5%
Lower 48 Onshore
12.82
13.07
13.90
15.30
17.33
18.72
18.99
1.6%
Associated-Dissolved
1.80
1.84
1.69
1.39
1.27
1.21
1.19
-1.8%
Non-Associated
11.02
11.23
12.21
13.91
16.06
17.51
17.81
1.9%
Conventional
7.97
7.96
8.74
10.18
11.77
12.44
12.32
1.8%
Unconventional
3.05
3.27
3.47
3.73
4.30
5.08
5.49
2.2%
Lower 48 Offshore
5.35
5.50
5.88
6.43
6.81
6.81
7.83
1.5%
Associated-Dissolved
0.77
0.80
0.89
0.93
0.92
0.89
0.85
0.3%
Non-Associated
4.58
4.70
4.99
5.49
5.89
5.92
6.98
1.7%
Alaska
0.43
0.43
0.49
0.53
0.56
0.59
0.62
1.5%
Lower 48 End of Year Reserves
(trillion cubic feet)
155.65
157.23
172.04
187.25
196.33
196.28
185.11
0.7%
Supplemental Gas Supplies (trillion cubic ft.)5
0.11
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.05
0.05
0.05
-3.6%
Total Lower 48 Wells (thousands)
18.51
21.75
22.18
25.30
28.19
29.39
32.04
1.6%
Ft. = feet.
'Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.
2Includes lease condensate.
Market production (wet) minus extraction losses.
"Gas which occurs in crude oil reserves either as free gas (associated) or as gas in solution with crude oil (dissolved).
"Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas. air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural
gas.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures for 1995 and 1996 may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors.
Sources: 1995 lower 48 onshore, lower 48 offshore, Alaska crude oil production: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Supply Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0340(95)/1
(Washington, DC, May 1996). 1995 U.S. crude oil and natural gas reserves: EIA, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, DOE/EIA-0216(95) (Washington,
DC, November 1996). 1995 natural gas lower 48 average wellhead price. EIA, Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC, November 1996). 1995 and 1996
crude oil lower 48 average wellhead price: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. 1995 and 1996 total wells completed: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and
Forecasting. 1996 lower 48 onshore, lower 48 offshore, Alaska crude oil production: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0340(96) (Washington, DC, June 1997). 1996
natural gas lower 48 average wellhead price, Alaska and total natural gas production, and supplemental gas supplies. EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/06)
(Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1995 and 1996 values: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System
run AEO98B.D100197A.
22
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A16. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices
(Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference Case
Annual
Supply, Disposition, and Prices
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Production'
Appalachia
435
452
491
506
505
505
513
0.5%
Interior
169
173
183
176
177
167
166
-0.2%
West
430
439
471
525
583
654
697
1.9%
East of the Mississippi
544
563
603
608
602
609
623
0.4%
West of the Mississippi
488
500
541
599
663
717
754
1.7%
Total
1033
1064
1145
1207
1265
1326
1376
1.1%
Net Imports
Imports
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
0.4%
Exports
88
91
94
104
112
119
128
1.4%
Total
-81
-84
-87
-96
-104
-112
-120
1.5%
Total Supply2
952
980
1058
1111
1161
1215
1256
1.0%
Consumption by Sector
Residential and Commercial
6
6
6
6
6
7
6
0.4%
Industrial³
72
70
71
77
81
81
81
0.6%
Coke Plants
33
32
31
28
26
24
23
-1.4%
Electric Generators
847
896
950
1000
1049
1103
1147
1.0%
Total
958
1003
1058
1112
1162
1215
1257
0.9%
Discrepancy and Stock Change5
-6
-23
-1
-1
-1
-0
-1
N/A
Average Minemouth Price
(1996 dollars per short ton)
19.25
18.50
17.45
16.18
15.05
13.99
13.27
-1.4%
(1996 dollars per million Btu)
0.90
0.87
0.82
0.76
0.72
0.67
0.64
-1.3%
Delivered Prices (1996 dollars per short ton)6
Industrial
33.14
32.28
31.03
29.92
29.29
28.90
28.57
-0.5%
Coke Plants
48.39
47.33
47.16
45.90
45.10
44.78
44.61
-0.2%
Electric Generators
(1996 dollars per short ton)
27.61
26.45
24.71
23.37
22.09
20.72
19.52
-1.3%
(1996 dollars per million Btu)
1.35
1.29
1.20
1.14
1.09
1.03
0.97
-1.2%
Average
28.75
27.52
25.80
24.40
23.12
21.76
20.56
-1.2%
Exports⁷
41.17
40.77
38.37
36.40
35.02
33.75
32.47
-0.9%
'Includes anthracite, bituminous coal, and lignite.
"Production plus net imports and net storage withdrawals.
3Includes consumption by cogenerators.
"Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
"Balancing item: the sum of production, net imports, and net storage minus total consumption.
*Sectoral prices weighted by consumption tonnage; weighted average excludes residential/ commercial prices and export free-alongside-ship (f.a.s.) prices.
7 F.a.s. price at U.S. port of exit.
N/A = Not applicable.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Coal Industry Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0584(95) (Washington, DC, October 1996). 1996 data derived from: EIA, Coal
Industry Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0584(96) (Washington, DC, November 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO988.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT November 7, 1997
23
Table A17. Renewable Energy Generating Capability and Generation
(Thousand Megawatts, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Growth
Capacity and Generation
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Electric Generators¹
(excluding cogenerators)
Net Summer Capability
Conventional Hydropower
78.48
78.58
80.32
80.65
80.71
80.71
80.71
0.1%
Geothermal²
3.02
3.02
3.02
2.93
2.92
2.87
2.94
-0.1%
Municipal Solid Waste3
2.87
2.91
3.11
3.46
3.92
4.26
4.38
1.7%
Wood and Other Biomass
1.91
1.91
1.91
2.02
2.07
2.28
2.50
1.1%
Solar Thermal
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.40
0.46
0.51
0.56
1.8%
Solar Photovoltaic
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.08
0.22
0.38
0.56
18.0%
Wind
1.84
1.85
2.55
3.31
3.33
3.68
4.06
3.3%
Total
88.49
88.64
91.29
92.86
93.64
94.69
95.70
0.3%
Generation (billion kilowatthours)
Conventional Hydropower
309.82
346.28
316.00
318.16
318.67
318.76
318.82
-0.3%
Geothermal²
14.66
15.70
17.24
17.34
17.64
17.92
19.26
0.9%
Municipal Solid Waste3
18.69
18.85
20.76
23.14
26.32
28.68
29.52
1.9%
Wood and Other Biomass
7.12
7.27
8.96
9.48
9.79
11.24
12.81
2.4%
Solar Thermal
0.82
0.82
0.92
1.04
1.24
1.39
1.56
2.7%
Solar Photovoltaic
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.20
0.60
1.00
1.45
29.4%
Wind
3.17
3.17
5.67
7.70
7.76
8.86
10.08
4.9%
Total
354.28
392.09
369.60
377.06
382.03
387.84
393.50
0.0%
Cogenerators5
Net Summer Capability
Municipal Solid Waste
0.41
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.7%
Biomass
5.35
5.41
5.93
6.06
6.14
6.08
5.95
0.4%
Total
5.75
5.81
6.36
6.50
6.61
6.56
6.43
0.4%
Generation (billion kilowatthours)
Municipal Solid Waste
2.00
2.09
2.14
2.22
2.30
2.34
2.36
0.5%
Biomass
34.85
39.17
39.67
40.48
41.00
40.55
39.65
0.1%
Total
36.85
41.25
41.81
42.70
43.29
42.89
42.01
0.1%
'Includes grid-connected utilities and nonutilities other than cogenerators. These nonutility facilities include small power producers, exempt wholesale generators and generators
at industrial and commercial facilities which do not produce steam for other uses.
2Includes hydrothermal resources only (hot water and steam).
3'Includes landfill gas.
"Includes projections for energy crops after 2010.
"Cogenerators produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Net summer capability has been estimated for nonutility generators for AEO98. Net summer
capability is used to be consistent with electric utility capacity estimates. Data for electric utility capacity are the most recently available as of August 25, 1997. Additional
retirements are also determined on the basis of the size and age of the units. Therefore, capacity estimates may differ from other Energy Information Administration sources.
Sources: 1995 and 1996 electric utility capability: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860 "Annual Electric Utility Report," 1995 and 1996 nonutility and
cogenerator capability: Form EIA-867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report." 1995 and 1996 generation: EIA, Annual Energy Review 1996, DOE/EIA-0384(96) (Washington,
DC, July 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
24
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A18. Renewable Energy, Consumption by Sector and Source¹
(Quadrillion Btu per Year)
Reference
Annual
Growth
Sector and Source
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Marketed Renewable Energy²
Residential
0.59
0.61
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.2%
Wood
0.59
0.61
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.2%
Commercial3
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.1%
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.1%
Industrial⁴
1.73
1.82
1.96
2.10
2.24
2.31
2.34
1.0%
Conventional Hydroelectric
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
N/A
Municipal Solid Waste
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.8%
Biomass
1.70
1.78
1.92
2.07
2.20
2.27
2.30
1.1%
Transportation
0.11
0.10
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.14
0.15
1.5%
Ethanol used in E855
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.07
0.11
0.13
20.5%
Ethanol used in Gasoline Blending
0.11
0.10
0.16
0.14
0.09
0.03
0.01
-8.3%
Electric Generators⁶
3.97
4.40
4.21
4.31
4.40
4.48
4.56
0.2%
Conventional Hydroelectric
3.18
3.56
3.25
3.27
3.28
3.28
3.28
-0.3%
Geothermal
0.39
0.43
0.48
0.50
0.52
0.53
0.58
1.2%
Municipal Solid Waste
0.30
0.30
0.33
0.37
0.42
0.46
0.47
1.9%
Biomass
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
2.4%
Solar Thermal
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
N/A
Solar Photovoltaic
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
29.4%
Wind
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.10
4.9%
Total Marketed Renewable Energy
6.41
6.93
6.95
7.21
7.44
7.58
7.69
0.4%
Non-Marketed Renewable Energy⁷
Selected Consumption
Residential
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
5.0%
Solar Hot Water Heating
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.3%
Geothermal Heat Pumps
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
7.1%
Commercial
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
4.2%
Solar Thermal
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
4.2%
'Actual heat rates used to determine fuel consumption for all renewable fuels except hydropower, solar, and wind. Consumption at hydroelectric, solar, and wind facilities
determined by using the fossil fuel equivalent of 10,280 Btu per kilowatthour.
²Includes nonelectric renewable energy groups for which the energy source is bought and sold in the marketplace, although all transactions may not necessarily be marketed,
and marketed renewable energy inputs for electricity entering the marketplace on the electric power grid. Excludes electricity imports; see Table A8.
Value is less than 0.005 quadrillion Btu per year and rounds to zero.
*Includes all electricity production by industrial and other cogenerators for the grid and for own use.
⁵Excludes motor gasoline component of E85.
°Includes renewable energy delivered to the grid from electric utilities and nonutilities. Renewable energy used in generating electricity for own use is included in the individual
sectoral electricity energy consumption values.
Includes selected renewable energy consumption data for which the energy is not bought or sold, either directly or indirectly as an input to marketed energy. The Energy
Information Administration does not estimate or project total consumption of nonmarketed renewable energy.
N/A = Not applicable.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 ethanol: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1995, DOE/EIA-0384(95) (Washington, DC, July 1996). 1995 and 1996 electric
generators: EIA, Form EIA-860, "Annual Electric Utility Report" and EIA, Form EIA-867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report." Other 1995: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis
and Forecasting. 1996 ethanol: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0340(96/1) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1996: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and
Forecasting. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A,
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
25
Table A19. Carbon Emissions by Sector and Source
(Million Metric Tons per Year)
Reference
Annual
Sector and Source
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Residential
Petroleum
25.8
27.3
25.8
25.0
24.8
24.5
24.2
-0.5%
Natural Gas
71.7
77.4
77.0
78.7
81.1
83.8
85.9
0.4%
Coal
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
-0.3%
Electricity
170.1
179.9
201.3
215.9
230.9
248.8
267.5
1.7%
Total
269.0
286.0
305.6
321.0
338.1
358.5
379.0
1.2%
Commercial
Petroleum
15.0
15.3
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.7
12.4
-0.9%
Natural Gas
44.8
47.4
49.9
52.1
54.0
55.4
55.5
0.7%
Coal
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.5
0.8%
Electricity
155.7
164.8
182.2
193.1
205.1
217.8
225.5
1.3%
Total
217.6
229.6
247.1
260.4
274.4
288.4
296.0
1.1%
Industrial¹
Petroleum
97.4
104.8
103.3
109.7
115.6
119.3
120.3
0.6%
Natural Gas2
139.5
142.8
155.5
158.5
165.8
167.1
167.5
0.7%
Coal
62.1
59.3
60.7
62.3
62.8
61.7
60.7
0.1%
Electricity
165.2
169.2
187.3
203.6
219.1
230.6
240.6
1.5%
Total
464.2
476.1
506.7
534.1
563.3
578.7
589.2
0.9%
Transportation
Petroleum
447.5
457.9
502.4
552.8
601.0
632.3
658.6
1.5%
Natural Gas'
10.4
10.5
12.2
14.4
17.2
18.6
19.8
2.7%
Other4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
1.5
2.2
2.7
N/A
Electricity
2.7
2.8
3.2
5.5
7.8
9.5
11.0
5.8%
Total
460.6
471.2
517.9
573.3
627.5
662.7
692.1
1.6%
Total Carbon Emissions5
Petroleum
585.7
605.3
644.4
700.4
754.2
788.9
815.5
1.2%
Natural Gas
266.4
278.1
294.6
303.7
318.1
324.9
328.7
0.7%
Coal
65.6
62.8
64.3
66.0
66.6
65.6
64.5
0.1%
Other⁴
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
1.5
2.2
2.7
N/A
Electricity
493.7
516.7
574.0
618.1
662.9
706.8
744.7
1.5%
Total
1411.4
1462.9
1577.3
1688.8
1803.2
1888.3
1956.2
1.2%
Electric Generators
Petroleum
13.8
15.5
11.4
7.7
7.4
6.8
6.6
-3.5%
Natural Gas
47.2
40.3
59.6
82.0
106.3
125.4
145.0
5.5%
Coal
432.7
460.9
503.0
528.4
549.3
574.5
593.1
1.1%
Total
493.7
516.7
574.0
618.1
662.9
706.8
744.7
1.5%
Total Carbon Emissions'
Petroleum
599.5
620.8
655.8
708.1
761.5
795.7
822.1
1.2%
Natural Gas
313.6
318.4
354.2
385.7
424.4
450.3
473.7
1.7%
Coal
498.3
523.7
567.3
594.4
615.9
640.1
657.7
1.0%
Other4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
1.5
2.2
2.7
N/A
Total
1411.4
1462.9
1577.3
1688.8
1803.2
1888.3
1956.2
1.2%
Carbon Emissions
(tons per person)
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.0.
6.1
6.0
0.4%
'Includes consumption by cogenerators.
"Includes lease and plant fuel.
$Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel.
"Includes methanol and liquid hydrogen.
*Measured for delivered energy consumption.
*Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.
Measured for total energy consumption, with emissions for electric power generators distributed to the primary fuels.
N/A = Not applicable
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: Carbon coefficients from Energy Information Administration, (EIA) Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1996, DOE/EIA-0573(96) (Washington, DC,
October 1997). 1995 consumption estimates derived from EIA, State Energy Data Report 1994, Online. ftp://fp.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997). 1996
consumption estimates based on: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997).
Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
26
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A20. Macroeconomic Indicators
(Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted, Dollars Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Indicators
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
GDP Chain-Type Price Index
(1992=1.000)
1.078
1.102
1.208
1.379
1.600
1.891
2.262
3.0%
Real Gross Domestic Product
6742
6928
7653
8503
9431
10211
10900
1.9%
Real Consumption
4595
4714
5220
5723
6349
6989
7626
2.0%
Real Investment
989
1067
1295
1500
1739
1934
2105
2.9%
Real Government Spending
1252
1258
1301
1383
1498
1583
1640
1.1%
Real Exports
791
857
1189
1746
2332
2849
3352
5.8%
Real Imports
890
971
1366
1847
2514
3283
4153
6.2%
Real Disposable Personal Income
4964
5077
5595
6182
6884
7560
8217
2.0%
Index of Manufacturing Gross Output
(index 1987=1.000)
1.264
1.299
1.425
1.629
1.851
1.992
2.125
2.1%
AA Utility Bond Rate (percent)
7.76
7.57
7.16
7.17
7.21
7.64
8.27
N/A
Real Yield on Government 10 Year Bonds
(percent)
5.23
4.99
4.29
3.83
3.58
3.69
3.97
N/A
Real Utility Bond Rate (percent)
5.22
5.28
4.64
4.37
4.05
4.15
4.49
N/A
Delivered Energy Intensity
(thousand Btu per 1992 dollar of GDP)
Delivered Energy
10.13
10.16
9.79
9.41
9.04
8.68
8.35
-0.8%
Total Energy
13.52
13.57
13.05
12.45
11.90
11.34
10.89
-0.9%
Consumer Price Index (1982-84=1.00)
1.52
1.57
1.75
2.04
2.42
2.90
3.52
3.4%
Unemployment Rate (percent)
5.60
5.38
5.38
5.79
5.51
5.55
5.66
N/A
Unit Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles (million)
14.77
15.10
15.24
15.58
16.65
17.15
17.49
0.6%
Millions of People
Population with Armed Forces Overseas
263.6
266.1
275.6
287.1
298.9
311.2
323.5
0.8%
Population (aged 16 and over)
202.1
204.2
212.8
223.8
235.4
245.8
255.6
0.9%
Employment, Non-Agriculture
117.2
119.5
128.1
135.5
143.9
149.2
153.4
1.0%
Employment, Manufacturing
18.5
18.5
18.1
17.9
17.5
16.4
15.2
-0.8%
Labor Force
132.3
133.9
142.1
149.6
156.5
160.2
162.4
0.8%
GDP = Gross domestic product.
Btu = British thermal unit.
N/A = Not applicable.
Sources: 1995 and 1996: Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), DRI Trend0897. Projections: Energy Information Administration, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run
AEO98B.D100197A,
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
27
Table A21. International Petroleum Supply and Disposition Summary
(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Growth
Supply and Disposition
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
World Oil Price (1996 dollars per barrel)¹
17.58
20.48
19.11
20.19
20.81
21.48
22.32
0.4%
Production²
OECD
U.S. (50 states)
9.31
9.37
9.11
8.96
8.94
8.73
8.48
-0.4%
Canada
2.43
2.51
2.55
2.46
2.59
2.62
2.66
0.2%
Mexico
3.19
3.28
3.20
3.24
3.34
3.43
3.53
0.3%
OECD Europe³
6.56
6.67
7.07
6.57
5.74
5.11
4.47
-1.7%
Other OECD
0.76
0.77
0.80
0.80
1.01
0.80
0.84
0.4%
Total OECD
22.25
22.60
22.74
22.03
21.62
20.70
19.98
-0.5%
Developing Countries
Other South & Central America
3.07
3.29
4.29
4.75
5.23
6.03
6.68
3.0%
Pacific Rim
1.95
2.08
2.67
3.04
3.20
3.23
3.08
1.6%
OPEC
27.72
29.00
32.73
40.19
48.19
56.40
65.98
3.5%
Other Developing Countries
4.13
4.21
4.55
4.84
5.00
5.33
5.38
1.0%
Total Developing Countries
36.88
38.59
44.25
52.82
61.63
70.98
81.11
3.1%
Eurasia
Former Soviet Union
6.99
7.14
7.70
9.13
9.83
10.59
11.41
2.0%
Eastern Europe
0.32
0.32
0.27
0.23
0.21
0.18
0.18
-2.3%
China
3.00
3.10
3.14
3.18
3.27
3.46
3.65
0.7%
Total Eurasia
10.31
10.55
11.10
12.54
13.31
14.23
15.24
1.5%
Total Production
69.43
71.74
78.09
87.39
96.56
105.91
116.34
2.0%
Consumption
OECD
U.S. (50 states)
17.73
18.31
19.62
21.15
22.70
23.66
24.39
1.2%
U.S. Territories
0.26
0.26
0.30
0.35
0.38
0.42
0.46
2.5%
Canada
1.77
1.77
1.87
2.01
2.15
2.28
2.43
1.3%
Mexico
1.96
1.98
2.25
2.39
2.74
3.00
3.27
2.1%
Japan
5.72
5.84
6.46
6.91
7.28
7.80
8.34
1.5%
Australia and New Zealand.
0.96
0.97
1.05
1.10
1.20
1.24
1.29
1.2%
OECD Europe³
13.85
13.93
14.36
14.78
15.11
15.40
15.69
0.5%
Total OECD
42.24
43.05
45.91
48.68
51.56
53.80
55.88
1.1%
Developing Countries
Other South and Central America
3.59
3.79
4.70
5.56
6.51
7.49
8.61
3.5%
Pacific Rim
4.39
4.55
5.38
7.13
8.44
10.07
12.03
4.1%
OPEC
4.94
5.14
5.62
6.30
7.06
7.91
8.86
2.3%
Other Developing Countries
5.27
5.44
6.06
7.19
7.94
8.75
9.66
2.4%
Total Developing Countries
18.19
18.91
21.76
26.19
29.95
34.22
39.16
3.1%
28
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - DRAFT - November 7, 1997
Table A21. International Petroleum Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued)
(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Reference
Annual
Supply and Disposition
Growth
1996-2020
1995
1996
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
(percent)
Eurasia
Former Soviet Union
4.60
4.48
4.88
5.80
6.73
7.65
8.68
2.8%
Eastern Europe
1.40
1.43
1.45
1.51
1.73
1.96
2.24
1.9%
China
3.31
3.44
4.39
5.51
6.89
8.58
10.68
4.8%
Total Eurasia
9.31
9.35
10.72
12.81
15.35
18.19
21.60
3.5%
Total Consumption
69.73
71.32
78.39
87.69
96.86
106.21
116.64
2.1%
Non-OPEC Production
41.71
42.74
45.36
47.19
48.37
49.52
50.36
0.7%
Net Eurasia Exports
1.00
1.20
0.38
-0.28
-2.04
-3.96
-6.36
N/A
OPEC Market Share
0.40
0.40
0.42
0.46
0.50
0.53
0.57
1.4%
N/A =Not applicable.
'Average refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil.
²Includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other hydrogen and hydrocarbons for refinery feedstocks, alcohol, liquids produced
from coal and other sources, and refinery gains.
³OECD Europe includes the unified Germany.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States (including
territories).
Pacific Rim = Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - Algeria, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and
Venezuela.
Eurasia = Albania, Bulgaria, China, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, the Former Soviet Union, and the Former Yugoslavia.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1995 and 1996 data derived from: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub
/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run AEO98B.D100197A.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 1998 DRAFT - November 7, 1997
29
4
T00
NEIC EIA DOE
11/12/97 WED 13:00 FAX 202 586 0727
R
Energy Information Administration
Washington, DC
FACSIMILE TRANSMISSION SHEET
Date: 11/12/97
To:
Daniel Chang
Phone:
395-6853
FAX:
From:
(cru well
National Energy Information Center
Phone:
(202) 586-1178
FAX:
(202) 586-0727
COMMENTS:
This document has 5 pages including this cover sheet.
INTERNET E-MAIL: [email protected]
HOME PAGE: HTTP://WWW.EIA.DOE.GOV
On-line and off-the shelf, EIA is the first place to go for the last word in energy information.
NEIC EIA DOE
11/12/97 WED 13:02 FAX 202 586 0727
Energy Information Administration
EIA Reports
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:00 NOON
EASTERN TIME
NOVEMBER 12, 1997
Energy Use, Carbon Emissions Continue to Rise In New EIA Forecast;
Industry Restructuring, Competition Help Lower Electricity Prices
Total energy consumption in the United States is expected to increase by 27 percent over
current levels by the year 2020, the Energy Information Administration (ELA) announced today.
Consumption is expected to be 4 percent higher than last year's estimate by 2015, the latest
year covered in last year's report.
ELA's Annual Energy Outlook 1998 also projects that higher energy consumption will be
reflected in higher carbon emissions. The stabilization of carbon emissions and other
greenhouse gases is the subject of international negotiations in Kyoto, Japan, from December 1
to 10, 1997. From 1990 levels, carbon emissions are likely to increase 34 percent by 2010, 40
percent by 2015 and 45-percent by 2020 (Figure 1). The number for 2010 is 5 percent higher
than forecast/last year.
The higher projections for both energy consumption and carbon emissions result in part from
higher projected economic growth and lower electricity prices. Higher demand is projected in
all sectors; however, increased demand by automobiles and other modes of travel contributes
more than half the increase. The current forecast assumes higher growth in vehicle-miles
traveled and slower growth in fuel efficiency for all travel modes. Higher demand in the other
sectors results from lower electricity prices, slower efficiency improvements, more expansion
of commercial floorspace early in the projection period, more use of traditional home-heating
technologies, and higher growth in some energy-intensive industries.
Lower energy prices partially result from restructuring and competition in the electricity
industry, where a 20-percent decline in average electricity prices is expected by 2020. Average
electricity prices decline from 6.9 cents per kilowatthour in 1996 to 5.5 cents per kilowatthour
in 2020 (Figure 2). By 2015, the projected prices are 13 percent lower than forecast in last
year's Annual Energy Outlook (All prices are in real, inflation-adjusted 1996 dollars.)
Restructuring is expected to provide continued impetus for operating efficiency improvements,
lower production costs, and retirement of high-cost plants. Capital costs for generating
equipment are also expected to decline. In addition, financial requirements for construction are
expected to change, as a wider range of investors enter the competitive market.
(MORE)
EIA-97-34
003
NEIC EIA DOE
11/12/97 WED 13:02 FAX 202 586 0727
EIA's analysis includes the transition to competitive prices in regions (California, New York,
and New England) where plans to implement restructuring are currently in place. Restructuring
actions in States without formal plans are omitted, so the projections do not represent the full
impact of moving to competitive pricing. (The complete Annual Energy Outlook 1998, to be
released next month, analyzes a fully competitive electricity market.)
Other forecast highlights
The average minemouth.price of coal is projected to decline from $ 8.50 a ton in 1996
to $13.27 a ton in 2020. By 2015, the price is expected to be 12 percent lower than ELA
forecast a year ago, contributing to the lower electricity price projections. Recent data
show a greater impact of productivity on mining cost and price than projected last year.
Productivity improvements are also expected to reduce costs for Western surface mines,
shifting more production to lower-cost Western mines.
Natural gas wellhead prices are projected to be $2.54 per thousand cubic feet in 2020,
up from $2.24 per thousand cubic feet in 1996. Prices are about 9 percent higher in 2015
than last year projection, because of a lower assessment of the expansion of the
resource base, higher drilling costs as indicated by more recent data, and higher
projected demand for natural gas.
The average world price of crude oil is projected to rise from $20.48 a barrel in 1996 to
$22.32 a barrel in 2020. EIA projections for worldwide oil demand are higher than in
last year's forecast because of higher assumed economic growth; however, the 2015
price is the same in both forecasts because of expanded production particularly from
countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Net oil imports are expected to provide 66 percent of oil consumption in 2020,
compared with 46 percent in 1996, as a result of increasing oil consumption and
declining domestic production. Crude oil production declines from 6.5 million barrels a
day in 1996 to 4.9 million barrels a day in 2020. Although projected oil production in
2015 is the same as in last year's forecast, oil consumption is higher, leading to net
petroleum imports that are 11 percent higher in 2015 than projected a year ago.
Renewable sources of energy are expected to penetrate energy markets at a slower pace
than previously forecast, due to electricity restructuring and increased competition with
fossil fuel technologies. The assumptions for increased competition in the electricity
industry tend to favor the less-capital intensive technologies over coal and baseload
renewables. As a result, electricity generation from renewable resources remains
relatively stable between 1996 and 2020 he slower penetration of renewable energy
sources contributes to the higher carbon emissions in the current forecast.
(MORE)
EIA-97-34
NEIC EIA DOE
11/12/97 WED 13:03 FAX 202 586 0727
Reference case projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 and an overview of the
results can be accessed immediately on ELA's World Wide Web Site (http://www.eia.doe.gov).
The direct Internet address is: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ae098/earlyrel.html. The overview is also
available from ELA's press contact. The figures referenced above may be viewed, together with
this press release, on EIA's Web Site, or they may be obtained from EIA's press contact.
The full Annual Energy Outlook 1998 will be released on December 18, 1997. The Outlook
includes cases that analyze the changes caused by different technology and productivity
assumptions. Additional cases assume higher or lower economic growth rates and higher or
lower world oil prices than those in the reference case. The forecasts in the Outlook assume that
current legislation and regulations remain in effect.
At the time of its release, copies of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 will be available from the
U.S. Government Printing Office 202/512-1800 or through ELA's National Energy Information
Center, Forrestal Building, Washington, DC 20585, 202/586-8800. The full Outlook, its
underlying assumptions, and more detailed, regional projections will be available on ELA's
Web Site by December 19, 1997.
The report described in this press release was prepared by the Energy Information
Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S.
Department of Energy. The information contained in the report and the press release
should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be
construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or
any other organization.
- EIA -
EIA Program Contact: Mary J. Hutzler, 202/586-2222
EIA Press Contact: Thomas Welch, 202/586-1178
EIA-97-34
005
NEIC EIA DOE
11/12/97 WED 13:03 FAX 202 586 0727
Figure 1. Carbon Emissions from Energy Use,
AEO98 vs. AEO97, 1990-2020 (million metric tons)
AEO98
2,000-
1803
1888
1,800-
1799 1956
1,600- 1346
AEO97
1722
1,400- -
1,200-
I
1,000-
800-
600-
400-
200-
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Figure 2. Fuel Prices, AEO98 vs. AEO97,
1996-2020 (1996 dollars)
8 -
AEO97
25 -
AEO97
6 -
20 -
AEO98
AEO98
15 -
4 -
10 -
2 -
Average electricity
Crude oil
5 -
(cents per kilowatthour)
(dollars per barrel)
0
0
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
3 -
25 -
AEO98
20 -
AEO97
2 -
AEO97
15 -
10 -
AEO98
1 -
Natural gas wellhead
Coal minemouth
(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
5 -
(dollars per short ton)
0
0
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
Linda Doman, EIA
9/29/97
MMTCE
1990
-1995
UK
173
170
Fr
113
110
Ge
279
241
S56-8
Italy
118
124
Wetholods 61
67
other
Ewrape
272
303
EIA
90
96 energy related CO2 - U.S
1344
1463
email Bob WEFA paper
Jeffrey A. Frankel
***
12/01/97 06:33:15 PM
Record Type:
Record
To:
Joseph E. Aldy/CEA/EOP
cc:
Adele C. Morris/CEA/EOP, Randall W. Lutter/CEA/EOP
Subject: Some more questions on GCC
The 12/1 Eco newsletter distributed by State with other materials from Kyoto claims that
"Annex I emissions are now 4.6% below 1990 levels". They have said that before. Given that
U.S. emissions are up 10 Percent (right?), that would have to be a whopping decrease in the
FSU (and UK and Germany) to be a correct figure? Do you think it is right?
Any update of figures in your EurMemo2 (9/30) that W.Eur will be 18% above 1990 in 2010
(and U.S. 28%; that one's up to 30%, no?)? - 34%
In what year are LDCs expected to pass OECD countries in emissions? JF
JF
EIA- IE097
1990 Annex I (Industrialized + EE/FSU -mexico)
1995
4237
3947
Table C.5
C.5.1
Anthropogenic emissions of CQ, excluding land-use change and forestry:
relative inventory figures for 1991-1994
(Gigagrams and percentage relative to 1990)
1990ᵃ
1991 b)
1992
1993
1994
(percentage relative to 1990, 1990=100)
(Gg)
%
%
%
%
Australia
288 965
..
..
..
Austria
59 200
108
100
:-
..
Bulgaria (1990)
82 990
:
:.
:-
..
Bulgaria (1988)ᶜ)
96 878
..
..
..
..
Canada
462 643
98
101
102
105
Czech Republic
165 792
94
86
84
:.
Denmark
52 025
121
110
114
121
Denmark (elect. trade adjusted)
58 278
105
104
103
101
Estonia
37 797
97
74
55
57
Finland
53 900
100
96
97
108
France
366 536
106
102
100
..
Germany
1 014 155
96
91
90
:.
Greece
82 100
..
..
:-
..
Hungary (1990)
71 673
--
..
: .
:.
Hungary (1985-1987)ᶜ)
83 676
..
..
..
:.
Iceland
2 172
96
101
106
..
Ireland
30 719
..
..
..
:.
Italy
428 941
..
..
Japan
I 155 000
102
103
101
107
Latvia
22 976
..
..
..
..
Liechtenstein
208
--
..
..
..
Luxembourg
11 343
..
..
..
:
Monaco
71
..
..
..
..
Netherlands
167 600
104
103
104
105
Netherlands (temp. adjusted)
174 000
100
101
100
102
New Zealand
25 476
102
110
107
108
Norway
35 514
95
96
101
106
Poland (1990)
414 930
96
90
..
..
Poland (1988)c)
478 880
83
78
..
:-
Portugal
42 148
..
..
..
..
Romania (1990)
171 103
83
72
70
..
Romania (1989)c)
198 479
71
62
61
..
Russian Federation
2 388 720
..
..
..
:
Slovakia
58 278
:
..
:
..
Spain
227 322
..
Sweden
61 256
89
92
90
95
Switzerland
45 070
103
101
98
96
United Kingdom
577 012
102
99
97
96
United States
4 957 022
99
100
103
103
a
For further details on 1990 figures see table A.1.
b
For further details on 1991-1994 figures see table C.1.
c
Some Parties with economies in transition have chosen different base years than 1990, referring to Article 4.6.
d
All figures are adjusted for electricity trade.
e
All figures are adjusted for temperature.
Table C.5 (continued)
C.5.2
Anthropogenic emissions ofCH₄: relative inventory figures for 1991-1994
(Gigagrams and percentage relative to 1990)
1990 a)
1991 a)
1992
1993
1994
(percentage relative to 1990, 1990=100)
(Gg)
%
%
%
%
Australia
6 243
..
..
:.
..
Austria
603
..
..
..
..
Bulgaria (1990)
1 370
..
..
..
..
Bulgaria (1988)ᶜ)
1 413
..
..
..
..
Canada
3 088
102
106
110
115
Czech Republic
942
..
..
..
..
Denmark
407
100
100
100
98
Estonia
323
89
70
56
58
Finland
252
100
97
96
98
France
2 896
99
97
98
..
Germany
5 682
92
91
92
..
Greece
343
--
..
..
..
Hungary (1990)
545
..
..
:.
..
Hungary (1985-1987)
664
..
:
:
..
Iceland
23
100
91
92
..
Ireland
796
..
--
:-
..
Italy
3 901
:
:
:.
..
Japan
1 382
99
96
95
..
Latvia
159
..
--
..
--
Liechtenstein
1
..
..
..
..
Luxembourg
24
..
--
--
..
Monaco
:
--
..
--
..
Netherlands
1 060
103
101
101
98
New Zealand
1 986
98
96
94
95
Norway
290
100
101
101
102
Poland (1990)
6 100
41
..
..
..
Poland (1988)c)
3 042
..
81
--
..
Portugal
226
..
--
..
..
Romania (1990)
1 954
88
77
77
..
Romania (1989)c)
2 328
74
65
65
..
Russian Federation
27 000
..
--
..
..
Slovakia
347
..
:
..
:.
Spain
2 151
:
..
:.
..
Sweden
329
66
72
:
:
Switzerland
332
99
97
96
96
UK
4 531
97
95
91
86
USA
27 000
101
101
99
104
a
For further details on 1990 figures see table A.4.
b
For further details on 1991-1994 figures see table C.2.
C
Some Parties with economies in transition have chosen different base years than 1990, referring to Article 4.6.
Table C.5 (continued)
C.5.3
Anthropogenic emissions of NO: relative inventory figures for 1991-1994
(Gigagrams and percentage relative to 1990)
1990ᵃ
1991 b)
1992
1993
1994
(percentage relative to 1990, 1990=100)
(Gg)
%
%
%
%
Australia
60.1
..
..
..
:
Austria
4.1
..
..
..
..
Bulgaria (1990)
22.5
..
..
"
:
Bulgaria (1988)c)
30.8
..
..
..
..
Canada
95.5
99
103
105
116
Czech Republic
24.0
..
:
..
:
Denmark
10.3
104
103
105
106
Estonia
2.4
96
75
58
54
Finland
22.0
100
45
50
50
France
176.7
101
99
97
:
Germany
211.0
91
94
91
..
Greece
13.7
..
..
..
..
Hungary (1990)
11.4
..
..
..
..
Hungary (1985-1987)
12.9
..
..
..
:
Iceland
0.6
100
100
100
:.
Ireland
42.3
..
..
..
..
Italy
120.3
..
..
..
..
Japan
55.2
97
97
98
..
Latvia
2.4
..
..
..
..
Liechtenstein
0.1
..
..
..
..
Luxembourg
0.6
:.
..
..
..
Monaco
..
..
..
..
..
Netherlands
51.5
117
116
113
113
New Zealand
17.1
99
103
109
112
Norway
15.0
100
87
93
93
Poland (1990)
156.0
32
..
..
..
Poland (1988)c)
58.9
85
..
..
..
Portugal
10.5
:.
..
..
..
Romania (1990)
106.8
85
64
92
..
Romania (1989)c)
66.7
..
..
..
..
Russian Federation
89.6
..
..
..
..
Slovakia
16.0
..
..
..
..
Spain
93.9
..
..
..
..
Sweden
15.2
132
161
..
..
Switzerland
15.6
101
101
100
104
UK
108.3
99
84
75
87
USA
411.4
97
97
97
87
a
For further details on 1990 figures see table A.5.
b
For further details on 1991-1994 figures see table C.3.
a
Some Parties with economies in transition have chosen different base years than 1990, referring to Article 4.6.
Table C.5 (continued)
C.5.4
Anthropogenic emissions of all greenhouse gases, excluding & d-use
change and foresty: relative inventory figures for 1991-1994
(Gigagrams and percentage relative to 1990)
1990 a)
1991 b)
1992
1993
1994
(percentage relative to 1990, 1990=100)
(Gg)
%
%
%
%
Australia
465 305
..
..
..
..
Austria
75 286
..
..
..
..
Bulgaria (1990)
123 755
..
:.
:
..
Bulgaria (1988)
141 345
:
..
..
Canada
577 954
99
102
103
106
Czech Republic
196 551
..
..
..
..
Denmark
65 517
117
108
111
119
Denmark (electr. trade adjusted)
71 770
104
103
103
103
Estonia
46 479
96
73
55
57
Finland
67 114
100
91
92
102
France
494 032
104
101
99
..
Germany
1 241 509
94
90
90
..
Greece
94 888
:
..
:
:
Hungary (1990)
88 674
..
..
..
..
Hungary (1985-1987)ᶜ)
104 082
..
..
..
:.
Iceland
3 227
95
92
94
..
Ireland
63 757
..
..
..
..
Italy
563 117
..
..
..
..
Japan
1 206 523
102
103
101
..
Latvia
27 640
..
..
..
..
Liechtenstein
265
..
:-
..
..
Luxembourg
12 123
..
..
:
:
Monaco
71
..
..
..
:.
Netherlands
213 946
105
103
104
105
Netherlands (temp. adjusted)
220 346
102
102
101
103
New Zealand
80 266
99
101
99
100
Norway
52 235
96
92
96
100
Poland (1990)
614 300
73
..
..
..
Poland (1988)c)
572 257
78
..
..
..
Portugal
51 045
..
Romania (1990)
253 152
84
72
75
..
Romania (1989)c)
276 859
77
66
68
..
Russian Federation
3 078 892
..
..
..
..
Slovakia
71 900
..
..
:
..
Spain
310 070
..
:
Sweden
75 573
91
95
Switzerland
58 196
103
100
98
97
United Kingdom
724 754
101
97
94
94
United States
5 842 371
99
101
102
103
a
For further details on 1990 figures see tables A.1, A.4, A.5 and A.7.
b
For further details on 1991-1994 figures see tables C.1-C.4.
C
Some Parties with economies in transition have chosen different base years than 1990, referring to Article 4.6.
d
All figures are adjusted for electricity trade.
C
All figures are adjusted for temperature.
Table B.1.
Projected anthropogenic emissions of CQ excluding land-use change and
forestry (Gigagrams)
Data from inventory
Data from projection
Variations
Updated variations
from projection
based on in-depth
reviewsᶜ
Base level
Base level
2000 levef
from inventory
from projection
(Gg)
(Gg)
(Gg)
(Percentage)
(Percentage)
Australia
288 965
288 965
332 799
15.1
15.1
~
Austria
59 200
59 900
65 800
11.1
9.8
1
Bulgaria (1990)
82 990
82 990
69 898
-15.8
-15.8
..
Bulgaria (1988)
96 878
96 878
69 898
-27.9
-27.9
Canada
462 643
461 200
510 000
10.2
10.6
12.5
Czech Republic
165 792
163 584
135 536
-18.2
-17.1
I
Denmark
52 025
58 353
53753
3.3
-7.9
I
Estonia
37 797
37 800
17 500 23 000
(-53.7) (-39.2)
(-5
Finland
53 900
54 200
200
30.5
29.5
~
France
366 536
383 167
397 833
8.5
3.8
..
Germany
1 014 155
1 014 155
917 000
-9.6
-9.6
~
Greece
82 100
82 100
94 500
15.1
15.1
..
Hungary (1990)
71 673
69 116
68741
-4.1
-0.5
..
Hungary (1985-87)
83 676
81 534
68741
-17.8
-15.7
..
Iceland
2 172
2 172
282
5.1
5.1
..
Ireland
30 719
30 719
36 988
20.4
20.4
V
Italy
428 941
423 776
482 440
12.5
13.8
Japan
I 155 000
1 173 000
1 200 000
3.9
2.3
I
Latvia
22 976
22 976
16 956
-26.2
-26.2
V
Liechtenstein
208
208
245
18.1
18.1
..
Luxembourg
11 343
11 244
7 556
-33.3
-32.8
..
Monaco
71
..
..
..
..
..
Netherlands
167 600
174 000
167 600
0.0
-3.7
>
New Zealand
25 476
25 530
29 160 29 940
14.5 17.5
14.
Norway
35 514
35 400
39 500
11.2
11.6
14
Poland (1990)
414930
338 000 455 000
(-18.5) (9.7)
1
..
Poland (1988)
478 880
458 000
338 000 455 000
(-2
Portugal
42 148
38 689
54 274
28.8
40.3
..
Romania (1990)
171 103
..
..
..
:
..
Romania (1989)
198 479
..
..
:
Russian Federation
2 388 720
2 330 000
1 930 000 2 026 000(-19.1) - (-15.1)
(-1
Slovakia
58 278
57 808
48 639
-16.5
-15.9
Spain
227 322
222 908
276 523
24.1
15
Sweden
61 256
61 300
63 800
4.2
4.1
-
Switzerland
45 070
45 400
43 800
-2.8
-3.5
~
UK
577 012
586 720
586 720
1.7
0.0
(-8) (-4)
USA
4 957 022
5 012 789
5 163 136
4.2
3.0
^
a
Data from inventory table A.1.
b
Differences in 1990 levels between inventories and projections are, for example, due to revisions of inventories, rounding, calibration of
models, or the projection of only a subset of the sources. For some countries (Denmark, France, Netherlands, Switzerland) differences are
also due to statistical adjustments.
C
"With measures" levels for 2000.
d
Some EIT countries have asked for special consideration under Article 4.6 to use different base years from 1990; Bulgaria (1988),
Hungary (average of 1985-1987), Poland (1988) and Roman(a989).
e
Additional and/or revised information for projections was often provided in the course of in-deptlews. Where possible, this
information is reflected here in the form of revised estimates. A ~ symbol means that the figures were not substantially changed during the
review team's country visit.
Comments
All communications but two gave projections for CQ emissions, although some of them included only emissions from
energy use of fossil fuels. Seventeen, representing 61 per cent of the 1990 aggregated inventory figure, projected increases
from base year levels in 2000, according to the starting points of their projections. Fourteen Parties, which accounted for
38 per cent of the 1990 emissions, projected either a stabilization or a decrease; of them, eight were EITs. The projected
growth in emissions is above 10 per cent for 11 Parties. Of the countries that projected decreases, the pattern was
different between the EITs and the others. Four EITs that had chosen different base years, had larger decreases compared
to these than 1990. One EIT, giving a range of scenarios, also presented a growth scenario compared to 1990. For three of
the four countries that made adjustments, eliminating these changed the projections from decreases to stabilization or
increases. The IDRs have shown stronger underlying growth for five Parties, while four are expecting lower emissions
than reflected in the national communications; two of these are still among those projecting the highest growth. For a
number of Parties, the overall implications of changes were not given in terms of clear directions or new figures.
Notes*
Australia: The effect of measures in 2000 (table 6.2,
Canada: Projections (table 13.11, p.128) incorporate
p.74) was subtracted from the reference scenario
"the effects of a number of federal and provincial
(table 6.1, p.72) reflecting "delayed or partial
policies, programs and measures currently in place or in
implementation, and/or other conditions which reduce
the process of implementation" (p.128). The figure in
the probability of effectiveness. This scenario can be
the "updated variations" column refers to revised
taken to be close to the current rate of implementation"
projections as reflected in Canada's National Action
(p.74). In general, Australia assumes that existing
Program on Climate Change from 1995.
measures will continue at the current rate of
implementation (p.80). Fiscal years are used.
Czech Republic The figures for 2000 were calculated
from percentage decreases projected (12.3 per cent) and
Austria: The 2000 figures are from the Institute of
additional information (p.14). The estimate of effects of
Economic Research (IER) reference scenario. Process
policies and measures implemented (p.27) was
emissions are assumed to be stable (footnote, p.2) and
subtracted from a scenario described as assuming "slow
added to pyrogenic emissions. The communication
implementation of measures, or not at all" (p.13).
states that the scenario does not represent all policies
and measures implemented or committed to; these are
Denmark Figures were taken from table 3.2, p.41, of
not fully quantified and may permit Austria to "stabilize
the communication, noting that slightly revised figures
its CO₂ emissions by the time period around 2000 to
were given on p.75. Projections assume energy
2005" (p.4). The scenario includes structural shifts in
measures (Energy 2000 Follow Up = 1993) yet to be
industry away from energy-intensive primary industries,
implemented, and current policies in other sectors. The
sustained efforts to improve energy utilization
projection figure used for 1990 is adjusted for electricity
(generating 1.5 per cent energy efficiency improvement
imports. Figures for 2000 provided in the IDR were
per annum) and preferential treatment of less
slightly lower.
environmentally damaging and renewable resources as
opposed to fossil fuels (p.82).
Estonia: Projections were provided after the
submission of the communication.
Bulgaria: The "energy policy" scenario was chosen, as
this is closest to reflecting implemented policies and
Finland: The projection allows for the construction of
measures. "Baseline" and "mitigation" scenarios were
Finnish electricity production capacity to replace current
also provided.
imports (p.19), which in 1990 were equivalent to 11 Mt
CO2. The projection figure is considered the most likely
option and takes into account energy cuts brought about
by taxation, energy conservation, more use of bioenergy
and the adoption of new technology.
France: The projection figures are taken from the
Latvia: Information from the IDR suggested that
summary of the national communication where the
emissions could be even lower in 2000 due to low
temperature-adjusted figure for energy-related emissions
economic growth.
is given as 104.5 Mt C in 1990 and the 2000 figure is
108.5 Mt C. The scenario includes measures such as a
Luxembourg Development of emissions in the
CO₂ tax equivalent to 70 ECU per tonne of carbon.
industrial sector dominates the projections.
Germany: Projections for 2000 were submitted
Monaco: Monaco reported that CO₂ emissions are
separately by 29 April 1996.
unlikely to increase by the year 2000.
Hungary: The average emissions comparable with the
Netherlands The projection takes into account the
projections figures in 1985-1987 were 81,534 Gg. The
effects of policies and measures decided prior to the
projections only include fuel-related emissions. The
submission of the communication (Energy Policy
figures assume implementation of the National Energy
Scenario, p.59). The 1990 projection figure includes a
Efficiency and Energy Improvement Programme (2000 S
temperature adjustment. During the in-depth review,
scenario, table 6.6, p.78). Figures based on other
information was given that showed a higher growth in
methodologies for emission calculations are also given
emissions than was reflected in the projections.
(pp.73-74).
New Zealand The figures for 2000 were given as an
Iceland: The projections do not include effects of the
interval reflecting 2 and 3 per cent growth in GDP. The
National Climate Action Plan. The total emissions are
measures included in the projection are not specified.
"expected to be no more in the year 2000 than they were
During the in-depth review, information was given that
in 1990" (p.54).
showed a higher actual growth in the 1990s than was
reflected in the projections.
Ireland: A continuation of existing policies would
indicate a greater increase ("20 per cent, or an increase
Norway: The projection reflects "current policies"
of 11 per cent if account is taken of increased carbon
(p.36), including carbon taxes that were implemented in
capacity" (p.2). Through the IDR indications were
1991. A revision was made during the in-depth review
given that the growth could be lower than reflected in
to account for higher growth than expected, especially in
the projections due to lower GDP growth and higher
the offshore petroleum sector.
relative use of natural gases.
Poland: Poland presented a set of different projections
Italy: A business-as-usual scenario was chosen (tables
for 2000 based on two approaches. "The presented
4.4 and 4.5), noting that scenarios for net emissions
assessments of future greenhouse gas emissions do not
were given "with measures" (in table 4.8), resulting in
take into account the currently undertaken actions,
lower estimates for 2000. If the projection for land-use
which lead to the further emission reductions" (p.44).
change and forestryis used to adjust the figures in table
These projections are for the energy sector only. The
4.8, the "2000 projection" figures would be 438, 440 -
1988 inventory figure corresponding to the energy
459, 440 Gg, and the "variations from projection", 3.5 -
section projections would be 462,820 Gg.
8.4 per cent.
Portugal: Projections are for emissions from fuel
Japan: The projection is based on the Long-term
combustion only.
Energy Supply and Demand Outlook. The projection
assumes that "all energy conservation measures
Romania: No projections were provided.
incorporated in the Outlook are fully implemented"
(p.140) and control measures in industrial processes
Russian Federation The projection figures for 2000
and measures to reduce CO2 emissions from municipal
were given as a range of CO₂ emissions for probable and
waste are fully implemented (e.g., waste projection is
optimistic scenarios based on possible versions of fuel
"based on the assumption that serious efforts will be
and energy complex development and with
made to thoroughly recycle paper waste" (p.141)).
consideration for consumption of primary energy and its
Fiscal years are used.
transformation products in all sectors of the national
economy (pp. 50-51). Projections are for emissions
from fuel combustion only.
Spain: The projection takes into account only
USA: The projection includes policies and measures
energy-related CO2. It is based on the reference
proposed by the Administration in the Climate Change
scenario from the Plan Energético Nacional 91
Action Plan (technical supplement to the
(PEN 91), and when the effects of measures contained
communication, pp.33-60), assuming "that the funding
in the Plan de Ahorro y Eficiencia Energética (PAEE)
required will be committed" (technical supplement,
(described in the communication), were taken into
p.55). The communication notes that some actions
account, the projected increase of emissions of CO₂ was
which "may yield significant reductions" are not
reduced from 45 per cent to 24 per cent in 2000 from
included (p. 187), while economic growth has been
the 1990 level (p.91). Actual development has not been
more robust and oil prices lower than assumed. During
in line with the assumptions from PEN 91; GDP growth
the in-depth review stronger underlying growth in
especially has been lower. A revision is therefore
emissions was reported owing to more robust growth in
envisaged. A revision of the estimates for GDP growth
the economy and reduced implementation of the Climate
from 1995 to 2000 (3%/year) and of the evaluation of
Change Action Plan.
measures in the energy sector leads to a smaller increase
in CO₂ emissions from 1990 to 2000 (from 218,000 to
*All references in parentheses are to the national
252,502 Gg, as revised during the in-depth review).
communications.
Sweden: The projection is based on political decisions
made up to the date of submission of the communication
(p.63), except for the changes in energy taxes as from 1
July 1994; Sweden notes that if temperature
adjustments of 3 Mt CO₂ in the figures for 1990 had
been made, projected emissions would have been stable
(p.68).
Switzerland Bunker fuels (2.1 Mt CO₂ in 1990 and
2.5 Mt CO₂ in 2000) are subtracted from the aggregate
figures given in the report. The projection includes only
measures already implemented or decided as of 1994
(pp.18-20, 74, 152). The inventory figure for 1990 was
not adjusted for temperature (p.38), but the projection is
based on a temperature-adjusted 1990 level of emissions
(p.79).
UK: The "central growth/low fuel price" scenario
(among several) is presented as the reference scenario
for emissions. This includes an agreement with electric
utilities on fuel choice and use of CHP after 1990
(p.17). In this projection emissions increased 10 Mt C.
The measures in place are estimated to reduce emissions
in 2000 by 10 Mt C, which is subtracted from the
projected 2000 level (p.16) and used for the table. A
revision was provided during the in-depth review to
account for new energy projections indicating CO₂
emissions of 4-8 per cent below 1990 levels by the year
2000.
10/10/97 FRI 18:39 FAX
1
002
U.S. Department of Justice
Environment and Natural Resources Division
Telephone (202) 51442701
Assistant Attorney General
Facsimile (207) $140557
950 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20530-0001
Cci asis
October 10, 1997
SR
AM
MEMORANDUM
mJ
To:
Assistant Secretaries Group
From:
Lois J. Schiffer, Assistant Attorney General
Environment & Natural Resources Section
Re:
Right-to-Know Proposal for GHG Emissions
Background
On numerous occasions, the President has expressed his personal commitment to right-to-
know provisions and has recognized their effectiveness. For example, in an August 28, 1996
speech in Kalamazoo, Michigan, the President stated,
We're also going to expand our community right-to-know law to make more information,
practical information available to families easier and faster. Right-to-know will protect you
here in communities like Kalamazoo because you can find out what's dangerous to your
families. Once there is a right-to-know law, companies think twice about what they do.
Similarly, in an August 8, 1995 speech in Baltimore, the President stated,
Community right to know is here to stay.
Democracies always have depended upon the
free flow of information to ordinary citizens.
Finally, the President wrote regarding an existing right-to-know program that information
disclosure "encourage[s] informed community based environmental decision making and provide[s]
a strong incentive for businesses to find their own ways of preventing pollution." 60 Fed. Reg.
41,791 (1995)
Proposal
The principle of right-to-know is directly applicable to emissions of greenhouse gases
(GHG). The public has a right to know who are emitters of gases that threaten community,
national and global health and the environment. Were information on emission levels made
public, domestic companies would be encouraged to maximize their energy efficiency and
minimize GHG. Moreover, the public would have sufficient information to make choices about
providers of various services which result in GHG emissions.
Hence, we recommend that a right-to-know proposal be included in any options
memorandum to the President which generally identifies federal programs that can help reduce
national GHG emissions. The proposal should apply to emitters of GHG at an appropriate level
10/10/97 FRI 18:40 FAX
U.) 003
EPA or other appropriate agency and made publicly available on a database. Such a proposal
(i.e. over a particular threshold amount). Information on emissions would be reported to
would mesh well with a domestic allowance trading program, since emissions information
would already be provided to EPA (or relevant agency) by companies within that program.
But the right-to-know proposal would also be important in sectors not covered by a trading
program or if reductions were secured through other means (e.g. performance standards).
- 2
FRI 18:39 FAX
08/12/97 TUE 21:44 FAX 2024566474
CEQ
1
001
001
SOC
:
1997 OCT 10 PM 6: 04
DISTRIBUTION:
(8/12)
FRom: Lais Sch: fer, DOJ
Organization
Name
Fax
Phone
State
Rafe Pomerance
647-0217
647-2232
Susan Gordon
647-0191
647-3253
Commerce
Jeffrey Hunker
482-4636
482-6055
Larry Campbell
482-0325
482-3038
OSTP
Rosina Bierbaum
456-6025
456-6077
Henry Kelly
456-6023
456-6033
CEA
Jeff Frankel
395-6947
395-5046
Treasury
Robert Gillingham
622-2633
622-2220
Jon Gruber
622-0563
Justice
Lois Schiffer
514-0557
514-2701
Jim Simon
Interior
Brooks Yeager
208-4561
208-6182
Brooke Shearer
208-1873
208-6291
Mark Shaefer
371-2815
208-4811
NOAA
Terry Garcia
482-6318
482-3567
OMB
T.J. Glauthier
395-4639
395-4561
Josh Gottbaum
395-3174
395-9188
USTR
Jennifer Haverkamp
395-4579
395-7320
USDA
Charlie Rawls
!
720-5437
720-6158
DOE
Dan Reicher
586-0148
586-9500
Mark Chupka
586-0861
586-5523
Joe Romm
586-9260
586-9220
Mark Mazur
586-9626
586-7700
EPA
Mary Nichols
260-5155
260-7400
David Doniger
David Gardiner
260-0275
260-4332
DOT
Frank Kruesi
366-7127
366-4544
OVP
Pete Jordan
456-9500
456-9513
PCSD
Marty Spitzer
408-6839
408-5296
Christine Ervin
408-5072
CCTF
Dirk Forrister
343-1162
343-1060
Steve Seidel
USAID
Sally Shelton-Colby
216-3235
712-1479
David Hales
703-875-4639
703-875-4205
DOL
Ed Montogmery
219-4902
219-5108
DOD
Sherri Goodman
703-693-7011
703-695-6639
Roy Salomon
703-607-3124
NEC
Peter Orszag
456-2223
456-5358
CEQ/NSC
David Sandalow
456-2710
456-6224
From:
Mark Bernstein on 10/02/97 05:21:15 PM
Record Type:
Record
To:
Jeffrey A. Frankel/CEA/EOP, Joseph E. Aldy/CEA/EOP
CC:
Rosina M. Bierbaum/OSTP/EOP, Henry C. Kelly/OSTP/EOP
Subject: Sources of Greenhouse Gases
TO: Jeff Frankel and Joe Aldy
From: Mark Bernstein, Rosina Bierbaum and Henry Kelly
Date: 10/2/97
RE: Comments on Sources of Greenhouse Gases
Thanks for your comments on the Sources of Greenhouse Gases document. We find from your
comments that we made a couple of errors, and also needed to clarify some items so that they
would not be misinterpreted. Here are some responses to your comments:
On your first bullet - we have been working with an interagency team and OMB to develop new
initiatives and expansions of programs to meet climate change objectives. There is considerable
backup documentation on the potential programs and emissions savings which we would be happy
to share. We think that keeping the options on the charts are important because it gives decision
makers a visual perception of the types of programs that could address particular areas.
On your second bullet - the first part was a good catch - thanks. On the remaining greenhouse
gases which are about 15%, we project that they remain about that into the future and when we
reduce emissions of CO2, we scale back the portion of methane emissions from natural gas
proportionally.
There seems to be some misunderstanding on the use of some numbers, and the wording of
bullets. We generally use carbon coefficients as follows: coal = 25; oil = 20 and gas = 14.5. To
that end, the relative carbon impact of coal to gas is 25/14.5 or 72% as stated. The rest of that
bullet was written improperly and should have said "and 22% more than oil"
On energy prices - we did take the numbers from AEO97 and in some cases we were looking at
different numbers than you were - in particular we were looking at delivered coal which declines by
11% (which we had wrong and have corrected), and delivered natural gas which declines at 5%
even though wellhead prices increase, and finally the last part should have been gasoline prices
which are pretty flat (growing at less than .1% per year according to EIA).
Again, thanks for your review of the document. Let us know if we can answer any other
questions.
case 65.xts Peah in 2015 + BAU
total emissions (985-2050: 109135
2000- 2050; 92971
1990 in 2010 + BAU
total emissims 1985-2050: 105973
2000- - coso: 89809
Peah:- 2015 = 1.0298
3-3½ none emissas
1990in in 2010
1.03 52
only over
2005-2040
Feb.- rms for Rosina
2100 WRE 2100BAU
541 21.8°C 710
~ ~2.4°C 2. 4°C
9/30/97
Arther Rypinshi, EIA, 586-8425
1990: 1372 MMTIE: total CO2 - cement manufacturing 9-10
teritrities (e.g. VI) 9-10
misc. (e.g. floregas) 9-10
1344 MMTCE: energy related (O2
estimates are accurate to 0.2-0.5% bias esror is enegy
information callected-probably off by same amt. each yr.
keep revising GHG estimation methodology
then reise historical date
-removed several doublecounting cases
to be published in October, latest estimates
Total CO2
Energy-Related CO2
1990
1373.8
1345.8
1996
1495.9
1463.0
ORNL CO2 estimates - areg Marland
derived from UN energy consumption data
may vary from other estimates given conversions
- coal C factors can vary N10% per mit energy
~so% per unit energy per ton
- oil densities range ~20%, (factor can vary 5-10%
RU mit energy (w/o LPG, ~ ~s%)
-nat. gas varies ~2% pe unit energy w/ a couple
of exceptions
non-fuel use excluded. - misses N5%
10/1/97
Linda Daman, EIA, 586-1041
Japan
1990
1995
Energy
Cemissions
Energy Cemissions
(Quads)
(MMTLE)
(Quads)
(MMTCE)
Total
18
308
21.4
361
oil
10.1
210
11.6
232
gas
2.0
30
2.4
35
coal
2.7
68
3.6
93
nuclear
1.9
2.8
remewables
Denesy = -0.1
11% T oil
30% T coal
50% nuclear
7% renewable
baseline 1990 2010 us
22% or 29% call EIA
talk to Jeff about higher growth rates
might want to touch base w/ EPA -sensitivity
9/15 Susan Holt (EIA)
1722 in 2010
1345 in 1990
28%
Emissions of GH Grepart
1345
mmic from CO2 emissions from energy use
measured = MMICE
Emissions of GHG i the U.S.
*
1344. Cembsions
Jeffrey A. Frankel
09/06/97 04:46:33 PM
Record Type:
Record
To:
Randall W. Lutter/CEA/EOP, Joseph E. Aldy/CEA/EOP, Adele C. Morris/OMB/EOP
cc:
Janet L. Yellen/CEA/EOP
Subject: a graph showing emission paths
I think it would be very useful to have a clear simple graph showing exactly what some commonly
discussed emission paths look like.
It should include BAU
all other paths should follow BAU up to 2000 (or perhaps 1997), reflecting that it is already too late
for the 90s to be in decline.
it should include some past history, perhaps back to 1960, in addition to the main forward part, which
perhaps should go as far forward as 2100 (of perhaps just to 2050, if doing the whole century would
mean that one could not tell the difference among the paths for the early yearsit should definitely
include:
"1990 by 2010," with some natural peak date like 2002
1990 by 2040, with the "peak in 2015"
perhaps some others
Randy, could you see that someone does this. Then try out some samples on Janet. It might be useful
for making presentations (at the highest levels). End of the week is fine for this one.
JF
http://ciac.E3D.ORNL.G../emissions/usa5094.dat
http://cdiac.ESD.ORNL.GOV/ftp/trends/emissions/usa5094.dat
UNITED STATES
CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Production, and
Gas Flaring (thousand metric tons of carbon)
Per
Cement
Gas
Capita
Year
Total
Solids
Liquids
Gases
Prod.
Flaring
(tons C)
Bunkers
1950
696069
347108
244802
87123
5267
11769
4.57
8106
1951
716717
334509
262189
102677
5688
11654
4.63
10260
1952
697920
296567
273190
109931
5766
12468
4.44
10789
1953
714462
294299
286594
115541
6124
11905
4.46
10978
1954
680491
252189
290178
121179
6315
10631
4.18
10063
1955
745973
283324
313292
130784
7207
11366
4.50
10845
1956
781912
294962
328544
138070
7637
12699
4.63
11371
1957
775115
282739
325781
147556
7150
11888
4.51
12965
1958
750766
245262
332982
155759
7457
9306
4.29
11549
1959
781360
251509
343465
169868
8128
8390
4.40
11626
1960
799544
253437
349790
180422
7625
8270
4.43
11650
1961
801875
245006
354071
187392
7714
7692
4.37
11920
1962
831489
254222
364287
198711
8015
6254
4.46
11337
1963
875633
272502
378849
210271
8379
5633
4.63
10426
1964
912912
289665
389703
219793
8756
4996
4.76
10849
1965
948264
301107
405597
228034
8851
4676
4.88
10629
1966
999673
312723
425920
246394
9132
5504
5.08
11698
1967
1039174
321091
443613
258534
8760
7177
5.23
13197
1968
1080969
314767
471907
277378
9350
7567
5.38
14225
1969
1132028
319691
497405
297775
9462
7695
5.58
12375
1970
1155779
322436
505124
312070
8985
7164
5.64
13270
1971
1162650
305673
519887
323262
9663
4165
5.61
12774
1972
1215253
310413
563420
327598
10191
3632
5.81
12585
1973
1262913
334029
592991
321744
10550
3599
5.97
14614
1974
1218402
330068
568045
307877
9983
2429
5.70
14475
1975
1167836
317558
553932
285997
8407
1941
5.41
14717
1976
1248095
351556
594226
291309
9000
2003
5.72
16780
1977
1252334
355630
624501
260519
9703
1982
5.67
20623
1978
1274009
361158
635599
264673
10362
2217
5.71
23859
1979
1278610
378704
612309
274753
10424
2420
5.67
27492
1980
1236297
394640
558045
272505
9281
1826
5.43
30533
1981
1195706
403000
518184
264246
8847
1428
5.20
27835
1982
1139230
390091
494570
245390
7817
1362
4.91
23252
1983
1143714
405462
494390
233785
8688
1389
4.88
21424
1984
1184227
427795
503808
241457
9586
1580
5.01
21704
1985
1202453
448009
508581
234860
9611
1392
5.04
15450
1986
1224096
439581
530541
242823
9720
1431
5.09
15011
1987
1268062
454223
546028
256352
9648
1810
5.22
14876
1988
1340168
491669
568475
268455
9484
2086
5.47
16105
1989 1360885
500199
568141
280949
9523
2073
5.50
16816
1990
1293219
472081
543187
266243
9507
2201
5.17
16158
1991
1310386
481842
535072
282094
8894
2483
5.19
17267
1992
1333718
483537
544966
293251
9516
2449
5.23
17267
1993
1361342
499012
553977
295003
10035
3314
5.28
16160
1994
1387256
499268
569037
305197
10416
3337
5.32
16416
Bunkers refer to emissions, expressed in thousand metric tons of
carbon, resulting from fuels consumed by ships and aircraft
engaged in international transportation. Emissions from bunker
fuels are shown with the country where the fuel loading occurred
but are not included in the national total.
Source: Gregg Marland and Tom Boden (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)
1 of 2
09/09/97 10:10:57
http://cdisc.ESD.ORNL.G..semissions/usa5094.dat
http://cdiac.ESD.ORNL.GOV/ftp/trends/emissions/usa5094.dat
Last Revision: July 1997
2 of 2
09/09/97 10:11:04
54
RL
Financial 10/2/97 Times
with
JA
taly
i on,"
A the
hore
EU expects to meet
that
inal-
can
ade
"he
emission curb target
ge
ag
Britain and Germany help to bring goal nearer
µ₀
A
By Neil Buckley in Brussels
targets are to be adopted.
below that of 1990.
и
The Copenhagen-based
"Our best, sober estimate
sn.
The European Union is set
European Environment
is that we will meet the tar-
to meet internationally
Agency, the European Com-
get," Mr Henningsen said.
eni
agreed targets for stabilising
mission's own figures, and
The UK's communication
g-dir
carbon dioxide emissions
Eurostat, the EU statistical
to the Kyoto convention, he
linked to climate change,
agency, had all previously
added, forecast a 6 per cent
European Commission offi-
suggested that the EU would
reduction in emissions
cials said yesterday.
miss the 2000 target.
between 1990 and 2000, due
They made their predic-
Figures from Eurostat,
to the shift from coal to gas
tion, which confounded ear-
published 18 months ago,
in electricity generation.
lier expectations, as the EU
suggested that although EU
Germany had already cut
defended its controversial
states were reducing emis-
carbon dioxide levels by 12
call for a cut in greenhouse
sions this was mainly due to
per cent, thanks to the
gas emissions by 15 per cent
short-term factors such as
clean-up of heavily polluting
by 2010. A paper adopted by
the European recession. Sta-
industry in former East Ger-
the Commission said such a
bilisation at 1990 levels by
many.
move would at worst reduce
2000 was "still uncertain".
Yesterday's Commission
EU gross domestic product
But Jorgen Henningsen,
paper argued that a 15 per
by 1.5 per cent, and could
director of the Commission's
cent emissions cut by 2010
actually enhance GDP by 1
environment quality unit
was both "technically feasi-
per cent.
and the EU's climate change
ble and economically man-
The assertion that the EU
negotiator, said yesterday
ageable" - rejecting criti-
Jc
will meet its target of stabi-
EU-wide emissions in 1996
cisms that it could damage
lising carbon dioxide emis-
remained below 1990 levels,
the world's industrialised
sions at 1990 levels by 2000
and latest forecasts were
economies.
Lionel J
will surprise environmental-
optimistic.
Brussels estimated direct
minister
ists. But it could strengthen
Unexpectedly large reduc-
compliance costs for the EU
governn
the EU's hand as it urges the
tions from the UK and Ger-
in 2010 at between Ecu15bn
electric
rest of the industrialised
many - responsible for half
and Ecu35bn ($16.6bn-
cabinet
world to sign up to its 15 per
of all EU emissions - cou-
$38.8bn), or 0.2-0.4 per cent of
the prest
cent reduction target by 2010
pled with lower than expec-
GDP. Total GDP, it said,
authorit
at December's conference on
ted increases from France
could even be enhanced,
measure
climate change in Kyoto,
and Spain meant the 2000
depending on the measures
Andrews
Japan, where legally binding
total was likely to be at or
the EU chose.
A bar
Fm:JAF
http://cdiac.ESD.ORNL.G..ons-tables/global94.dat
http://cdiac.ESD.ORNL.GOV/tp/ndp030r7/emissions-tables/global94.dat
Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Production, and Gas Flaring
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
P
Cement
Gas
Cap
Year
Total
Gases
Liquids
Solids
Production
Flaring
(ton
1950
1638
97
423
1077
18
23
0.
1951
1775
115
479
1137
20
24
0.
1952
1803
124
504
1127
22
26
0.
1953
1848
131
533
1132
24
27
0.
1954
1871
138
557
1123
27
27
0.
1955
2050
150
625
1215
30
31
0.
1956
2185
161
679
1281
32
32
0.
1957
2278
178
714
1317
34
35
0.
1958
2338
192
732
1344
36
35
0.
1959
2471
214
790
1390
40
36
0.
1960
2586
235
850
1419
43
39
0.
1961
2602
254
905
1356
45
42
0.
1962
2708
277
981
1358
49
44
0.
1963
2855
300
1053
1404
51
47
0.
1964
3016
328
1138
1442
57
51
0.
1965
3154
351
1221
1468
59
55
0.
1966
3314
380
1325
1485
63
60
0.
1967
3420
410
1424
1455
65
66
0.
1968
3596
445
1552
1456
70
73
1.
1969
3809
487
1674
1494
74
80
1.
1970
4084
516
1838
1564
78
87
1.
1971
4235
554
1946
1564
84
88
1.
1972
4403
583
2055
1580
89
94
1.
1973
4641
608
2240
1588
95
110
1.
1974
4649
618
2244
1585
96
107
1.
1975
4622
623
2131
1679
95
93
1.
1976
4889
647
2313
1717
103
109
1.
1977
5028
646
2389
1780
108
104
1.
1978
5076
674
2383
1796
116
107
1.
1979
5358
714
2534
1892
119
100
1.
1980
5290
726
2407
1949
120
89
1.
1981
5119
736
2271
1920
121
72
1.
1982
5080
731
2176
1983
121
69
1.
1983
5070
733
2161
1989
125
63
1.
1984
5242
791
2185
2081
128
58
1.
1985
5417
822
2170
2238
131
57
1.
1986
5609
840
2279
2299
137
54
1.
1987
5737
903
2289
2350
143
51
1.
1988
5961
949
2392
2414
152
53
1.
1989
6068
983
2429
2448
156
50
1.
1990
6120
1020
2495
2389
157
60
1.
1991
6186
1030
2602
2322
161
71
1.
1992
6093
1019
2493
2348
169
63
1.
1993
6057
1046
2487
2287
179
57
1.
1994
6200
1075
2533
2348
186
57
1.
Source: Gregg Marland and Tom Boden (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)
1 of 1
09/11/97 23:16:42
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United
States 1987-1994
Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases in the United States
1987-1994
DOE/EIA-0573 (94)
Distribution Category UC-950
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases
in the United States
1987-1994
September 1995
Energy Information Administration
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent
statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information
1 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:07
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.htm.
statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information
contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of
the Department of Energy or of any other organization.
Contacts
This report, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, was prepared under the
general direction of Mary J. Hutzler, Director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting,
Energy Information Administration. General questions concerning the content of this report may be
referred to Arthur T. Andersen, Director of the Energy Demand and Integration Division
(202/386-1441).
Specific technical information concerning the content of the report may be obtained from Arthur
Rypinski (202/586-8425, e-mail [email protected]). This report was written by Arthur Rypinski
(Executive Summary and Chapter 1), Louise Guev-Lee (Chapter 2), Michael Mondshine (Chapter 3),
Karen Bauer (Chapters 4 and 6), Neal Miller (Chapter 5), and Kenneth Pruitt (Chapter 7).
Preface
Title XVI, Section 1605(a) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (enacted October 24, 1992) provides:
Not later than one year after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary, through the
Energy Information Administration, shall develop, based on data available to, and obtained
by the Energy Information Administration. (III inventory of the national aggregate
emissions of each greenhouse gas for each calendar year of the baseline period of 1987
through 1990. The Administrator of the Energy Information Administration shall annually
update and analyze such inventory using available data. This subsection does not provide
any new data collection authority.
The first report in this series, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases 1985-1990, was published in September
1993. This report--the third annual report, as required by law-- presents the Energy Information
Administration's latest estimates of emissions for carbon dioxide, methane, and other
greenhouse gases.
Contents
Executive Summary
What's New in This Report
1. U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective
About this Report
Emissions Inventories
Global Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect
2 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:28
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
Global Sources of Greenhouse Cases
Relative Forcing Effects of Various Gases
Recent Developments
Changing Growth in Atmospheric Concentrations
Global Climate Change Policy Developments
U.S. Emissions in an International Perspective
Or
2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Overview
Energy Consumption
Emissions Trends
Estimating Emissions
Adjustments to U.S. Energy Consumption
Energy Consumption in U.S. Territories
International Bunker Fuels
Unreported Natural Gas Consumption
3 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:29
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
Energy Production
Industrial Sources
Cement Manufacture
Limestone and Dolomite Consumption
Soda Ash Manufacture and Consumption
Carbon Dioxide Manufacture
Aluminum Manufacture
3. Methane Emissions
Overview
Energy Production and Distribution
Coal Mining
Oil and Gas Production, Processing, and Distribution
Energy Consumption
Stationary Combustion
Mobile Combustion
4 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:30
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
Mobile Combustion
Landfills
Agricultural Sources
Enteric Fermentation in Domesticated Animals
Solid Waste of Domesticated Animals
o
Rice Cultivation
Burning of Crop Residues
Industrial Processes
Chemical Production
Iron and Steel Production
4. Nitrous Oxide
Overview
Agriculture
Fostilizer Use
Crop Residue Burning
O
5 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:31
Emissions of Greenhousi Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
Energy Use
Mobile Combustion
Stationary Combustion
Industrial Processes
Amipic Acid Production
Nitric Acid Production
5. Halocarbons and Other Gases
O
Overview
Chlorefluorocarbons (CFCs)
(CFC-11)
Dichlorofluoromethane (CFC-12)
Preon 113 (CFC-113)
I" hlorotetrafluoroethane (CFC-114)
Monochloropentafluoroethane (CFC-115)
o
Hydrouhlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
6 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:31
Emissions of Greenhous: Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
Thlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22)
Uulorodifluoroethane (HCFC-142b)
Other HCFCs
Hydrof luorocarbons (HFCs)
IFC-23
12,2,2-Tetrafluoroethane - (HFC-134a)
1, -Difluoroethane (HFC-152a)
Bromofluorocarbons (Halons)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Other Demicals
Marbon Tetrachloride
Mothyl Chloroform (1,1,1-Trichloroethane)
Chloroform
Mathylene Chloride (Dichloromethane)
Pelfur Hexafluoride
7 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:33
Emissions of Greenhouse Clases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
6. Criteria Pollutants
Overview
Carbon Monoxide
Nitrogen Oxides
Nonmethane Volatile Organic Compounds
7. Land Use Issues
Overview
o
Land and the Carbon Budget
Carbon Cycling in Forests
Methane Emissions from Wetlands
Land Une Modification of Methane Sinks
Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Land Use Changes
Appendices
A.
0
A.
Carlon Coefficients Used in This Report
8 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:33
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
A.
Carbon Coefficients Used in This Report
B.
Uncertainty in Emissions Estimates
o
C.
Detailed Emissions Estimates and Activity Data
D.
Emi sions Sources Excluded
E.
Common Conversion Factors
References
Glossary
Tables
1.
Global Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases
2.
Global Natural and Anthropogenic Sources and Absorption of
Greenno see Cases
3.
Numeri -1 Estimates of Global Warming Potentials Relative to
Carbon Dioxide
4. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy and Industry,
1987-1984
5. U.S. Corbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Energy
Consum: tion
by End-Une Sector, 1987-1994
9 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:34
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
6.
Comparison of EIA Estimates of Carbon Emissions Coefficients
at Full Combustion, 1987-1994
7. U.S. Cousel Fuel Consumption for Nonfuel Use, 1987-1994
8. Rates of Secuestration for U.S. Fossil Fuel Consumption
9. U.S. Chel on Requestered by Nonfuel Use of Energy,
1887-
3
10. Energy Consumption in U.S. Territories and International
Bunkers. 1987-1994
11. Carbon Emissions from U.S. Territories, International
B shers,
A Gas Consumption, 1987-1994
12. U.S. Natural Gas Consumption and Balancing Item,
'-1 in
13. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Gas Flaring,
14. U.S. Partion Dioxide Emissions from Industrial Sources,
1987-1991
15. U.S. Holhane Emissions from Anthropogenic Sources,
1'87-1934
16. U.S. S. Merchane Emissions from Coal Mining and Post-Mining
1987-1994
17.
ane Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations,
@
10 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:35
Emissions of Greenhouse Cases in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
18. U.S. Mahane Emissions from Natural Gas Transmission and
Distribution, 1987-1994
19. U.S. Methane Emissions from Oil Refining and
1987-1994
20.
U.S.
Nambrane Emissions from Stationary Combustion
S.
21.
U.S.
hane Emissions from Mobile Sources,
1
22. U.S. hane Emissions from Anaerobic Decomposition in
T addition 1987-1994
23. EDITO Methane Generation Model Paremeters
21. U.S Mathane Emissions from Enteric Fermentation in
Domesticated Animals, 1987-1994
25. U.S. License Emissions from the Solid Waste of
I mestr incod
87-1994
26.
Address:
Harvested for Rice and Estimated U.S.
M theme
Emissuore
from Flooded Rice Fields, 1987-1994
27.
Natione Emissions from Industrial Processes,
1 07-1
o
28. Estimated U.S. Emissions of Nitrous Oxide, 1987-1994
11 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:35
Emissions of in the United States 1987-1994
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
28.
U.S. Emissions of Nitrous Oxide, 1997-1994
29. U.S. Milrous Oxide Emissions from Nitrogen Fertilizer Use,
30.
U.S
Throus Oxide Emissions from Mobile Sources,
1:37-1004
31. U.S.
throus Oxide Emissions from Stationery Combustion
987-1994
32. U.S. Mitrous Oxide Emissions from Industrial Dencesses,
1997-1994
37.
Estimated
1990 Production, Sales, and Emissions of CFCs
house Gases
31. Estima U.S. Emissions of Halocarbons and illaneous
Gr Gases, 1987-1994
35.
U.S
Missions of Criteria Pollutants, 1987-1924
36.
Marbon Monoxide Emissions, 1917-1994
37. U.S. Metrogen Oxide Emissions, 1987-1994
38. U.S. Parasions of Nonmethane Volatile Organic Compounds,
19.7.1991
3?. Major U.ns of Land in the United States
A1. Carbon issions Coefficients at Full Combustion,
1
1-19
12 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:36
Emissions of Greenhouse Gares in the United States 1987-1994
H:/tp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
1984-1994
A?.
Trunds Motor Gasoline Density, All Grades, 1984-1994
A?. Conservation Shares for Liquid Petroleum GREAT Chergy
Con cont 984-1994
A. Communition, Energy Content, and Emissions Cow/ficient for
Four Samples of Still Gas
to
C1. U.S. S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use in the
Responsabil Sector, 1983-1994
C?. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy U== to the
Commercial Sector, 1983-1994
CR. U.S. Inchon Dioxide Emissions from Energy the
Inclust 11 Sector, 1983-1994
C1. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy U.. the
Sector, 1983-1991
CR. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electric lities,
C6. Production Data for Industrial Sources of C. Mioxide,
C7. U.S. Cord Production, 1983-1994
C
C".
Data for Methane Emissions from OF
Produ tion, Processing, and Distribution,
1
13 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:37
Emissions of Greenhouse (i Gases in the United States 1987-1994
w://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
C9. Methods Mmissions Factors for Oil and Gas Pr otion,
Processor
:,
and Distribution
C10. U.S.
time: icipal Solid Waste Landfilled, 1983-
C11. Factors Used To Estimate Methane and Mitrous
Ell
fro"
Ting of Crop Residues
C12. Aver ;. Tipe-Slaughter Live Weights for U.S.
and
C lifes,
1984.1
D. Estimated U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions fine
Tuels,
1987-19 :
D3. Estimate Carbon Emissions from U.S. S. Militar
nations
Abroad, : 87-1994
D?. Estimated U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Finc. Turel Gas
Plants. 87-1994
Figures
1. Annual Permentage Change in Atmospheric Concer tions of
14 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:38
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994
:p://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/95report/contents.html
Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide, 1'
2. Energy-Rolated Carbon Emissions by Region, ?
3. Indices of U.S. Gross Domestic Product, Done
Energy
Consumption, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1
1
O
4. U.S. Ener Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
:-
1 ! 1994
5. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Emissions by Sect
1994
6. U.S. Emissions of Nitrous Oxide by Source,
7. Production Sales, End Use, and Put imated F...:
OF CFC-12,
1980-1994
Bookshell Overview
X
?
search
15 of 15
07/27/97 14:08:39
World Emission of 20 largest Countries
http://www.geocities.com/-combusem/WENCO2.HTM
World CO2 Emission for 20 largest emitting Countries
Return to: [Main] [Energy] [Combusem]
Total CO2 Emission by Countries
1995
Classified by absolute emission Ton/y
Ton/y
8 Population
CO2 Area km2
Country
kg/cap
United States
1
5.98E+09
23.32
261000000
22924
9300000
China
2
3.32E+09
12.96
1191000000
2790
9141000
Russia
3
1.87E+09
7.28
148400000
12580
17075000
Japan
4
1.36E+09
5.30
125000000
10885
378000
Germany
5
1.20E+09
4.66
81500000
14677
357000
India
6
9.14E+08
3.56
913400000
1000
3266000
United Kingdom
7
6.28E+08
2.45
58400000
10747
245000
Canada
8
5.60E+08
2.18
29200000
19184
9976000
Italy
9
4.82E+08
1.88
57100000
8445
301000
Korea, South
10
4.41E+08
1.72
44500000
9918
99000
France
11
4.33E+08
1.69
57900000
7474
552000
Australia
12
4.13E+08
1.61
17800000
23176
7713000
Ukraine
13
4.12E+08
1.61
51900000
7935
604000
Poland
14
4.08E+08
1.59
38500000
10598
313000
South Africa
15
3.87E+08
1.51
40500000
9564
1221000
Mexico
16
3.85E+08
1.50
88500000
4346
1958000
Spain
17
3.10E+08
1.21
39100000
7940
505000
Brazil
18
2.98E+08
1.16
159100000
1870
8512000
Iran
19
2.74E+08
1.07
62400000
4384
1648000
Saudi Arabia
20
2.66E+08
1.04
17800000
14961
2150000
Total 20 group
2.03E+10
3483000000
5840
75314000
World %
79.29
62.19
37.77
CO2 Emission clasified by level of kg CO2 per C
Ton/y
% Population
CO2 Area km2
Country
kg/per
Australia
1
4.13E+08
1.61
17800000
23176
7713000
United States
2
5.98E+09
23.32
261000000
22924
9300000
Canada
3
5.60E+08
2.18
29200000
19184
9976000
Saudi Arabia
4
2.66E+08
1.04
17800000
14961
2150000
Germany
5
1.20E+09
4.66
81500000
14677
357000
Russia
6
1.87E+09
7.28
148400000
12580
17075000
Japan
7
1.36E+09
5.30
125000000
10885
378000
United Kingdom
8
6.28E+08
2.45
58400000
10747
245000
Poland
9
4.08E+08
1.59
38500000
10598
313000
Korea, South
10
4.41E+08
1.72
44500000
9918
99000
South Africa
11
3.87E+08
1.51
40500000
9564
1221000
Italy
12
4.82E+08
1.88
57100000
8445
301000
Spain
13
3.10E+08
1.21
39100000
7940
505000
Ukraine
14
4.12E+08
1.61
51900000
7935
604000
France
15
4.33E+08
1.69
57900000
7474
552000
Iran
16
2.74E+08
1.07
62400000
4384
1648000
Mexico
17
3.85E+08
1.50
88500000
4346
1958000
China
18
3.32E+09
12.96
1191000000
2790
9141000
Brazil
19
2.98E+08
1.16
159100000
1870
8512000
India
20
9.14E+08
3.56
913400000
1000
3266000
1 of 2
03/14/97 08:54:11
sion of 20 largest Countries
http://www.geocities.com/-combusem/WENCO2.-
CO2 emission classified by Ton CO2/km2
Ton/y
% Population
CO2 Area km2
kg/per
Korea, South
1
4.41E+08
1.72
44500000
9918
99000
Japan
2
1.36E+09
5.30
125000000
10885
378000
Germany
3
1.20E+09
4.66
81500000
14677
357000
United Kingdom
4
6.28E+08
2.45
58400000
10747
245000
Italy
5
4.82E+08
1.88
57100000
8445
301000
Poland
6
4.08E+08
1.59
38500000
10598
313000
France
7
4.33E+08
1.69
57900000
7474
552000
Ukraine
8
4.12E+08
1.61
51900000
7935
604000
United States
9
5.98E+09
23.32
261000000
22924
9300000
Spain
10
3.10E+08
1.21
39100000
7940
505000
China
11
3.32E+09
12.96
1191000000
2790
9141000
South Africa
12
3.87E+08
1.51
40500000
9564
1221000
India
13
9.14E+08
3.56
913400000
1000
3266000
Mexico
14
3.85E+08
1.50
88500000
4346
1958000
Iran
15
2.74E+08
1.07
62400000
4384
1648000
Saudi Arabia
16
2.66E+08
1.04
17800000
14961
2150000
Russia
17
1.87E+09
7.28
148400000
12580
17075000
Canada
18
5.60E+08
2.18
29200000
19184
9976000
Australia
19
4.13E+08
1.61
17800000
23176
7713000
Brazil
20
2.98E+08
1.16
159100000
1870
8512000
2 of 2
03/14/97 08:5
1989 Figures Total Emissions (000's of MT) GNP (millions of $US)
TE/GNP
Canada
455530
500337
0.910446
China
2388613
393006
6.077803
Germany
641398
1272959
0.503864
India
651936
287383
2.268527
Japan
1040554
2920310
0.356316
Mexico
319702
170053
1.880014
United Kingdo
568451
834166
0.68146
United States
4869005
5237707
0.929606
Executive Summary
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/exec.htm
Executive Summary
What's
Units for
New in
Carbon
Halocarbons and
Nitrous
Land
Measuring
Methane
Criteria
This
Greenhouse
Dioxide
Related
Oxide
Pollutants
Use
Report
Gases
Compounds
Issues
This is the fourth Energy Information Administration (EIA) annual report on U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases.
This report presents estimates of U.S. anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions of carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, and several other greenhouse gases for 1988 through 1994. Estimates of 1995 carbon dioxide,
nitrous oxide, and halocarbon emissions are also provided, although complete 1995 estimates for methane are not
yet available (Table ES1).
Table ES1. Estimated U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases by Gas, 1988-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Gas)
Gas
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Carbon Dioxide
5,040.40
5,075.60
5,030.60
4,982.20
5,058.20
5,151.10
5,248.60
5,288.50
Methane
30.8
30.9
31.3
31.4
31.5
30.5
31
NA
Nitrous Oxide
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Halocarbons and Minor Gases
CFC-11, CFC-12,
0.3
0.3
CFC-113
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
HCFC-22
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
HFCs and PFCs
*
*
Criteria Pollutants
Carbon Monoxide
105
93.5
91.2
88.3
85.3
85.3
88.9
NA
Nitrogen Oxides
21.4
21.1
20.9
20.6
20.7
21.1
21.4
NA
Nonmethane
23.3
21.7
21.4
VOCs
20.7
20.3
20.5
21.0
NA
*Less than 50,000 tons of gas. Estimated hydrofluorocarbon and perfluorocarbon emissions combined totaled
0.008 million metric tons in 1987, rising to 0.027 million metric tons in 1995.
P = preliminary data. NA = not available.
Note: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Sources: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide emissions: EIA estimates described in Chapters 2, 3, and 4 of
this report. Halocarbons and minor gases: 1990 and 1994 estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-1994, EPA-230-R-96-006 (Washington,
DC, November 1995), pp. 46-50. Other years: EIA estimates described in Chapter 5 of this report. Criteria
pollutants: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, National Air
Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900-1994, EPA-454/R-95-011 (Research Triangle Park, NC, October 1995), Tables
A-1 - A-3, pp. A-2 - A-16.
Emissions of carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 percent from 1993 to 1994 and by an additional 0.8 percent from
1994 to 1995. Most carbon dioxide emissions are caused by the burning of fossil fuels for energy consumption,
which is strongly related to economic growth, energy prices, and weather. The U.S. economy grew rapidly in 1994
and slowed in 1995.
Estimated emissions of methane increased slightly in 1994, as a result of a rise in emissions from energy and
agricultural sources.
Estimated nitrous oxide emissions increased by 1.8 percent in 1995, primarily due to increased use of nitrogen
fertilizers and higher output of chemicals linked to nitrous oxide emissions.
Estimated emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), which are known to contribute
to global warming, increased by nearly 11 percent in 1995, primarily as a result of increasing substitution for
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
1 of 7
05/06/97 13:58:23
Executive Summary
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/exec.html
With the exception of methane, the historical emissions estimates presented in this report are only slightly revised
from those in last year's report (see the box below, "What's New in This Report").
What's New in This Report
New report format. There is a new overview capsule at the beginning of each chapter, so that current trends
can be easily identified. Detailed statistical tables follow at the end of each chapter. Technical sections regarding
emissions sources and estimation methods have been moved to Appendix A for reference.
Updated global warming potentials. This year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) further
revised its estimates of the relative radiative forcing effects of various greenhouse gases (global warming
potentials, or GWPs). The revisions, mostly minor, have been incorporated in this report. The IPCC has also
released revised net GWPs for certain chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone-depleting substances to reflect their
offsetting global warming and cooling effects. The new net GWPs are also noted in the report.
Reformulated gasoline incorporated into the 1995 emission coefficient for motor gasoline. The Clean Air
Act Amendments of 1990 mandated the use of reformulated gasoline in heavily polluted areas during the winter
months beginning in 1995. Reformulated gasoline mixtures reduce aromatic content, limiting hydrocarbon
emissions. The compounds typically used as additives in reformulated gasoline, MTBE, ETBE, and TAME,
contain an oxygen atom in their molecules. As a result they have carbon contents ranging from 68.2 to 70.5
percent, well below the 85 to 88 percent found in standard motor gasoline. These additives represent about 12 to
13 percent of reformulated gasoline, as compared with 1 to 6 percent of standard gasoline. Thus, reformulated
gasoline has a carbon emissions coefficient approximately 1 percent smaller than that of standard gasoline. In
1995, reformulated blends represented just under 25 percent of U.S. gasoline consumption. After weighting for
consumption, the emissions coefficient for motor gasoline was reduced by about 0.3 percent compared to what it
would have been in the absence of reformulated gasoline.
Revised historical estimates for methane emissions from oil and gas production. A recently completed
study jointly funded and managed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Gas Research
Institute (GRI) indicates that methane emissions from the U.S. natural gas industry are substantially higher than
previously estimated. This study includes a more complete inventory of the equipment components used by the
natural gas industry as well as a larger and more representative sample of equipment emissions performance
than was available previously. The new emissions factors were used in conjunction with industry activity data to
create a revised time series of emissions estimates. The revised emissions factors raise emissions estimates for
methane from oil and gas production by more than 3 million metric tons annually.
Revised methods for estimating methane emissions from the solid waste of domesticated animals. In
order to capture recent changes in methods of handling animal waste in six States (Arizona, Florida, Nevada,
North Carolina, North Dakota, and Texas), estimates of methane emissions from the solid waste of domesticated
animals were calculated separately for these six States, and the results were added to a single estimate
developed for the remainder of the country. The new method raises annual emissions estimates by just under
100,000 metric tons.
New estimates of methane emissions from domestic and commercial wastewater treatment. Estimates of
this minor source of methane have been added to this year's report, raising estimated methane emissions by just
over 0.15 million metric tons.
New carbon sequestration estimates. This report contains revised estimates of carbon sequestration by U.S.
forests, incorporating the potential of carbon sequestered in forest soils. This revision extends the upper bound
of the estimate by 127 million metric tons of carbon.
New maps of the historical extent of forest land in the United States. Maps presented in Chapter 7 of this
report show the extent of forest land in 1620, 1850, 1920 and 1992, to allow for rapid visual evaluation of the
substantial changes in forest cover since colonial times.
Revised energy data. Updated energy data resulted in slightly higher estimates of emissions for the years
before 1995.
In Table ES2, the emissions of each gas are weighted by its global warming potential (GWP), which is taken as a
measure of radiative forcing [1]. This concept, developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), provides a measure of the comparative impacts of different greenhouse gases on global warming, with the
effect of carbon dioxide being equal to 1. The GWPs for other greenhouse gases are considerably higher (see
discussion in Chapter 1). Overall, GWP-weighted emissions rose by 3.9 percent between 1990 and 1994.
2 of 7
05/06/97 13:58:24
Executive Summary
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/exec.html
Table ES2. U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases, Based on Global Warming Potential, 1988-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon or Carbon Equivalent)
Gas
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Carbon Dioxide
1,375
1,384
1,372
1,359
1,380
1,405
1,431
1,442
Methane
177
177
179
180
180
174
178
NA
Nitrous Oxide
36
38
38
38
38
39
40
39
HFCs and PFCs
19
20
19
19
21
20
23
25
Total
1,606
1,619
1,608
1,596
1,619
1,638
1,672
NA
P = preliminary data. NA = not available.
Note: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Sources: EIA estimates documented in this report and in Appendix A.
Table ES2 excludes several radiatively important gases, including the criteria pollutants carbon monoxide, nitrogen
oxides, and particulates, as well as CFCs and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). These gases have ambiguous
effects on climate, which are difficult to quantify. In addition, CFCs and HCFCs are specifically excluded from
coverage under the international climate treaty, the Framework Convention on Climate Change (see Chapters 1,
5, and 6 for discussion related to the effects and emissions of these gases).
In Table ES1, carbon dioxide emissions are shown at full molecular weight. In Table ES2 they are shown in carbon
equivalent units (see "Units for Measuring Greenhouse Gases" below). While carbon dioxide accounts for 85
percent of U.S. GWP-weighted emissions, the growth of emissions since 1990 has been unevenly distributed. In
particular, emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have grown rapidly from negligible levels in 1990, and they
account for almost 7 percent of the total increase in emissions since 1990 (Figure ES1).
Figure ES1. Difference in U.S. Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases, 1990 US. 1994
70
59.4
60
Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent
50
40
30
20
10
4.2
1.9
0
-
-
-2.0
-10
Carbon
Methare
Nitrous
HFCsand
Dioxide
Oxide
PFCe
Source: EIA estimates documented in this report.
3 of 7
05/06/97 13:58:27
Executive Summary
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/exec.html
Units for Measuring Greenhouse Gases
In this report, the EIA has elected to report information in forms that are most likely to be intuitively familiar to
users of the document. Therefore, energy and industrial data are reported in their native units (usually
international units). Oil production is reported in thousand barrels per day, and energy production and sales in
(higher heating value) British thermal units (Btu). Emissions data are reported in metric units. We have attempted
to bridge the gap between users of metric units and international units by using the familiar "million metric tons"
common in European industry instead of the "gigagrams" favored by the scientific community. Emissions of most
greenhouse gases are reported here in terms of the full molecular weight of the gas (as in Table ES1). In Table
ES2, however, and subsequently throughout the report, carbon dioxide is measured in carbon units, defined as
the weight of the carbon content of carbon dioxide (i.e., just the "C" in CO₂). Carbon dioxide units at full
molecular weight can be converted into carbon units by dividing by 44/12, or 3.67. This approach has been
adopted for two reasons:
Carbon dioxide is most commonly measured in carbon units in the scientific community. Scientists argue
that not all carbon from combustion is, in fact, emitted in the form of carbon dioxide. Because combustion
is never perfect, some portion of the emissions consists of carbon monoxide, methane, other volatile
organic compounds, and particulates. These other gases (particularly carbon monoxide) eventually decay
into carbon dioxide, but it is not strictly accurate to talk about "tons of carbon dioxide" emitted.
Carbon units are more convenient for comparisons with data on fuel consumption and carbon
sequestration. Since most fossil fuels are 75 to 90 percent carbon by weight, it is easy and convenient to
compare the weight of carbon emissions (in carbon units) with the weight of the fuel burned. Similarly,
carbon sequestration in forests and soils is always measured in tons of carbon, and the use of carbon
units makes it simple to compare sequestration with emissions.
While carbon dioxide emissions can be measured in tons of carbon, emissions of other gases (such as methane)
can also be measured in "carbon dioxide equivalent" units by multiplying their emissions (in metric tons) by their
global warming potentials. For comparability, carbon dioxide equivalent units can be converted to "carbon
equivalent" by multiplying by 12/44 (as in Table ES2). This method provides a measure of the relative effects of
various gases on climate.
Carbon Dioxide
Some 98.5 percent of U.S. anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.
The causes of changing carbon dioxide emissions can be found in energy consumption trends and changes in the
composition of fossil fuels burned to provide energy services. During the late 1980s, with fluctuating hydroelectric
power generation, the completion of nuclear power plants commissioned in the early 1970s, and increased natural
gas use, the upward trend in U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide slowed markedly, despite rising energy
consumption. In 1990 and 1991, with the onset of economic recession and rising oil prices, both energy
consumption and carbon emissions declined. However, the past 4 years have seen economic recovery, falling oil
prices, and rising energy consumption, resulting in higher levels of carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions rose by
1.9 percent in 1994 and by a further 0.8 percent in 1995, and they are now some 5.1 percent (70 million metric
tons of carbon) higher than in 1990.
Methane
U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions have three principal sources: production and transportation of coal, natural
gas, and oil; anaerobic decomposition of municipal waste in landfills; and raising livestock. Smaller sources include
combustion of fossil fuels, rice cultivation, and industrial processes. Methane emissions estimates are more
uncertain than those for carbon dioxide.
Methane emissions rose during the late 1980s. The principal cause of this trend appears to have been increasing
production from a group of underground coal mines with very high rates of methane emissions. Meanwhile,
emissions from municipal landfills appear to have been stable, because growth in the volume of solid waste
generated was offset by a growing volume of waste burned for energy recovery and by increased recovery of
methane at landfill sites.
In the 1990s, two factors have tended to reduce estimated methane emissions:
Underground coal mine production has been declining in the 1990s. A strike by the United Mine Workers of
America in 1993 drastically reduced coal production from a number of underground mines known to be very
gassy. After the strike, overall coal production rebounded, but production in the gassiest coal mining
regions of the United States continued to decline.
Further increases in the proliferation of recycling and "waste-to-energy" projects have reduced the apparent
4 of 7
05/06/97 13:58:28
Executive Summary
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/exec.html
volume of trash being put into landfills. In combination with increased methane recovery from landfills, this
trend has reduced estimated methane emissions from this source.
These factors reduced U.S. methane emissions by 0.3 million metric tons (on a GWP-weighted basis, about 2
million tons of carbon equivalent) in 1994 from their 1990 levels.
Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous oxide emissions estimates are more uncertain than estimates of methane emissions. The principal sources
are believed to be "excess" emissions from agricultural soils associated with fertilizer use, industrial process
emissions, and emissions from combustion of fossil fuels. Nitrous oxide emissions, estimated at 0.45 million metric
tons in 1990, grew by 3.0 percent to 0.46 million metric tons in 1995. The main sources of growth were increased
use of nitrogen fertilizers and greater industrial process emissions. However, the uncertainty of the estimation
methods makes it difficult to be confident of apparent trends.
Halocarbons and Related Compounds
Halocarbons and related compounds include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and other compounds that act as greenhouse gases.
Halocarbons have many uses, but the bulk of emissions come from their use as refrigerants in cooling equipment,
as solvents, or as blowing agents, or from fugitive emissions from industrial processes.
CFCs are currently being phased out because they damage the stratospheric ozone layer. The warming effects of
CFCs and HCFCs are offset to some extent because they also destroy ozone, which is a potent greenhouse gas.
Compounds that contain no chlorine (such as HFCs and PFCs) do not affect ozone, and their effects on climate
are therefore easier to measure.
Figure ES2 illustrates emissions trends for CFCs and CFC substitutes for which sufficient information is available
to estimate time series. At present, available data suggest that emissions of CFCs-about 0.2 million metric tons
in 1990-are declining. Estimated HCFC emissions (almost entirely composed of HCFC-22, a popular refrigerant
for home air conditioners) have been largely stable since 1993. There is little information about emissions of "new"
HCFCs, such as HCFC-141b and HCFC-142b, which are CFC substitutes. HFC emissions were very
low-perhaps 0.006 million metric tons-in 1990. Emissions of HFC-23, a byproduct of HCFC-22 production, have
also been roughly stable since 1993. Emissions of the CFC substitutes HFC-134a and HFC-152 have risen
substantially in the past 2 years, from a base total of less than 0.001 million metric tons in 1990. HFC-134a
became the standard automobile air conditioner refrigerant in 1994, and emissions will grow rapidly as CFCs are
replaced throughout the automobile fleet. HFC-152 consumption is growing rapidly, but it has a relatively low
global warming potential of 140.
Figure ES2. Estimated U.S. Emissions of
Halocarbons andR ated Compounds,
1980-1995
120
CFC-12
100
CFC-11
HCFC-22
Thousand Metric Tonsof Gas
80
60
40
CFC-113
20
HFCsand PFCs
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: ElAestimates presented in Chapter 5cf this report
The principal quantifiable source of PFCs is as a fugitive emission from aluminum smelting. Primary aluminum
production declined in the mid-1990s, reducing estimated emissions.
Criteria Pollutants
5 of 7
05/06/97 13:58:33
Executive Summary
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/exec.html
Criteria pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds) are reactive
gases, which usually decay quickly in the atmosphere. They are not necessarily greenhouse gases in themselves,
but they can promote atmospheric chemical reactions that create tropospheric ozone, which is a potent
greenhouse gas. Because the precise ozone-creating effect of these gases varies with local atmospheric
conditions, it is not possible to compute their effects directly. As they are precursors to urban "smog," their
emissions are regulated under the Clean Air Act. The principal source of emissions of criteria pollutants is the
combustion of fossil fuels, particularly in motor vehicles.
According to estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), national-level emissions of carbon
monoxide have been declining since the late 1970s (Figure ES3). Emissions of nonmethane volatile organic
compounds have also declined, but at a much slower rate. Emissions of nitrogen oxides have been essentially
unchanged in recent years.
Figure ES3. Estimated U.S. Emissions of
Criteria Pollutants, 1980-1994
120
100
Carbon Monoxide
Million of Gas
80
60
40
Nonmethane VOCs
20
Nitrogen Oxides
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, National Air Pollutant
Emission Trends, 1900- 1994, EPA-454/R-95-027 (Research
Triangle Park, NC, October 1995), Tables A1-A11, PP.
A-2-A-16.
Land Use Issues
Changes in land use can also have large, though difficult to quantify, effects on atmospheric concentrations. In the
United States, the expansion of forest land and the growth of existing forests are responsible for removing large
amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. Several studies of carbon sequestration in U.S. forests suggest that in
the late 1980s and early 1990s, some 111 to 238 million metric tons of carbon was sequestered annually,
equivalent to about 8 to 17 percent of U.S. anthropogenic carbon emissions [2]. However, considerable
uncertainty is associated with this estimate-particularly with the amount of carbon sequestered in forest soils.
The IPCC recommends including emissions and sequestration from land use changes in national inventories, and
the U.S. "National Communication" for the Framework Convention follows this practice [3]. However, the EIA has
elected not to include carbon sequestration from forestry in its "total" estimate of U.S. emissions, for the following
reasons:
There is insufficient information to determine the extent, if any, of year-to-year changes in anthropogenic
sequestration of carbon. Changes in national sequestration rates can be estimated only at 5-year intervals.
The current estimate is an annual average for the period 1987-1992; new data will become available in
1998, covering the 1992-1997 period.
The magnitude of the sequestration estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty on several counts. The
largest source of uncertainty is the amount of carbon sequestered annually in forest soils.
TO:
Chapter 1. U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Perspective
6 of 7
05/06/97 13:58:38
Executive Summary
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/exec.html
GG96RPT Home Page
File last modified: 10/22/96
Energy Information Administration/Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1995
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/gg96rpt/exec.html
If you having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at [email protected]
7 of 7
05/06/97 13:58:38
http://www.eiadoe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
1. U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in
Perspective
About This
The Greenhouse Effect and
Global Climate Change
U.S. Emissions in an
Report
Global Climate Change
Policy Developments
International Perspective
About this Report
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is required by the Energy Policy Act of 1992 to prepare a report on
aggregate U.S. national emissions of greenhouse gases for the period 1987-1990, with annual updates thereafter.
This report is the fourth annual update, covering national emissions over the period 1988-1994, with preliminary
estimates of emissions for 1995.
Chapter 1 of this report briefly recapitulates some background information about global climate change and the
greenhouse effect and discusses important recent developments in global climate change activities. Chapters 2
through 6 cover emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, and criteria pollutants,
respectively. Chapter 7 describes potential sequestration and emissions of greenhouse gases as a result of land
use changes.
Five appendixes are included with this report. Appendix A provides a detailed discussion of emissions sources,
estimation methods, and data requirements and sources. Appendix B describes the derivation of the carbon
emissions coefficients used for the inventory. Appendix C describes uncertainties in the emissions estimates.
Appendix D describes known emissions sources omitted from the main report due to definitions of "anthropogenic"
or due to excessive uncertainty. Appendix E provides some convenient conversion factors.
The Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change
The Earth is warmed by light from the Sun. Over time, the amount of energy transmitted to the Earth's surface is
equal to the amount of energy re-radiated back into space in the form of infrared radiation, and the temperature of
the Earth's surface stays roughly constant. However, the temperature of the Earth is strongly influenced by the
existence, density, and composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Many gases in the Earth's atmosphere absorb
infrared radiation re-radiating from the Earth's surface, trapping heat in the lower atmosphere. Without the natural
greenhouse effect, it is likely that the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be on the order of -19°
Celsius, rather than the +15° Celsius actually observed [4]. The gases that help trap the Sun's heat close to the
Earth's surface are referred to as "greenhouse gases." All greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation (heat) at
particular sets of wavelengths.
The main greenhouse gases are water vapor (H₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O),
and a host of engineered chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Most greenhouse gases occur naturally.
Water vapor is by far the most common, with an atmospheric concentration of nearly 1 percent, compared with
less than 0.04 percent for carbon dioxide. Concentrations of other greenhouse gases are a fraction of that for
carbon dioxide (Table 1).
Table 1. Global Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
CFC-11
CFC-12
Item
(parts per million)
(parts per trillion)
Preindustrial Atmospheric
278
0.700
0.275
0
0
Concentration
1992 Atmospheric Concentration
356
1.714
0.311
268
503
Average Annual Change
1.6
0.008
0.0008
0
7
Average Change (Percent per
0.4
0.6
0.25
0
1.4
Year)
Atmospheric Lifetime (Years)
50-200
12
120
50
102
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change
(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996), p. 92.
It was recognized in the early 1960s that concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere were
1 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:05
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.hml
It was recognized in the early 1960s that concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere were
increasing every year. Subsequently, it was discovered that atmospheric concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide,
and many engineered chemicals were also rising. Current concentrations of greenhouse gases keep the Earth at
its present temperature. Would increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases make the Earth get even warmer?
In computer-based simulation models, rising concentrations of greenhouse gases nearly always produce an
increase in the average temperature of the Earth. Rising temperatures may, in turn, produce changes in weather
and in the level of the oceans that might prove disruptive to current patterns of land use and human settlement, as
well as to existing ecosystems. To date, it has proven difficult to detect hard evidence of actual temperature
changes, in part, because normal temporal and spatial variations in temperature are far larger than the predicted
change in the global average temperature. Even when temperature changes are identified, it is not possible to be
certain whether they are random fluctuations that will reverse themselves or are the beginning of a trend. The
possible effects of rising temperatures on weather patterns are even more uncertain.
The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international assemblage of
scientists commissioned by the United Nations to study this matter, concluded that:
Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still
emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors. These include
the magnitudes and patterns of long-term variability and the time-evolving pattern of forcing by, and response to,
changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and land surface changes. Nevertheless, the
balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernable human influence on climate [5].
While both the existence and consequences of human-induced climate change remain uncertain, the threat of
climate change has put in train an array of efforts by governments both in the United States and abroad to find
some mechanism for limiting the risk of climate change and ameliorating possible consequences. To date, efforts
have focused on identifying levels and sources of emissions of greenhouse gases and on possible mechanisms
for reducing emissions or increasing absorption of greenhouse gases.
Global Sources of Greenhouse Gases
Most greenhouse gases have substantial natural sources in addition to human-made sources, and there are
powerful natural mechanisms for removing them from the atmosphere. However, the continuing growth in
atmospheric concentrations establishes that, for each of the major greenhouse gases, more gas is being emitted
than is being absorbed each year: that is, the natural absorption mechanisms are lagging behind. Table 2
illustrates the relationship between anthropogenic and natural emissions and absorption of the principal
greenhouse gases.
Table 2. Global Natural and Anthropogenic Sources and Absorption of Greenhouse Gases
Sources
Annual Increase in Gas in the
Gas
Natural
Human-Made
Absorption
Atmosphere
Carbon Dioxide (Million
Metric Tons of Carbon)
150,000
7,100
154,000
3,100-3,500
Methane (Million Metric
110-210
300-450
460-660
35-40
Tons of Gas)
Nitrous Oxide (Million
6-12
4-8
13-20
3-5
Metric Tons of Gas)
Source: Summarized from ranges appearing in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change
1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 17-19.
Water Vapor. Water vapor, as noted above, is the most common greenhouse gas present in the atmosphere. It is
emitted into the atmosphere in enormous volumes, through natural evaporation from oceans, lakes, and soils, and
returned to Earth in the form of rain and snow. Water vapor is so plentiful in the atmosphere already that additional
emissions are unlikely to absorb any significant amount of infrared radiation. It is also likely that the amount of
water vapor held in the atmosphere is generally in equilibrium, and that increasing emissions of water vapor would
not increase atmospheric concentrations [6]. According to currently available information, anthropogenic water
vapor emissions at the Earth's surface are unlikely to be an important element in either causing or ameliorating
climate change.
Carbon Dioxide. Carbon is a common element on the planet, and immense quantities can be found in the
atmosphere, in soils, in carbonate rocks, and dissolved in ocean water. All life on Earth participates in the "carbon
cycle," by which carbon dioxide (CO₂) is extracted from the air by plants and decomposed into carbon and
oxygen, with the carbon being incorporated into plant biomass and the oxygen released to the atmosphere. Plant
biomass, in turn, ultimately decays (oxidizes), releasing carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere, or storing
organic carbon in soil or rock. There are vast exchanges of carbon dioxide between the ocean and the
atmosphere, with the ocean absorbing carbon from the atmosphere and plant life in the ocean absorbing carbon
2 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:06
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.htm
atmosphere, with the ocean absorbing carbon from the atmosphere and plant life in the ocean absorbing carbon
from water, dying, and spreading organic carbon on the sea bottom, where it is eventually incorporated into
carbonate rocks such as limestone.
Records from Antarctic ice cores indicate that the carbon cycle has been in a state of imbalance for the past 200
years, with emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere exceeding absorption. Consequently, carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere have been steadily rising.
The most important natural sources of carbon dioxide are releases from the oceans (90 billion metric tons per
year), aerobic decay of vegetation (30 billion metric tons), and plant and animal respiration (30 billion metric tons)
[7]. Known anthropogenic sources account for 7 billion metric tons of carbon per year. The principal anthropogenic
source is the combustion of fossil fuels, which accounts for about three-quarters of total anthropogenic emissions
of carbon worldwide. Natural processes-primarily, uptake by the ocean and photosynthesis-absorb substantially
all of the naturally produced carbon dioxide and some of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide, leading to an annual
net increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of 3.1 to 3.5 billion metric tons [8].
Methane. Methane (CH₄) is also a common compound. The methane cycle is understood less well than is the
carbon cycle. Methane is released primarily by anaerobic decay of vegetation, by the digestive tracts of termites in
the tropics, and by several other lesser sources. The principal anthropogenic sources are leakages from the
production of fossil fuels, human-promoted anaerobic decay in landfills, and the digestive tracts of domestic
animals. The main sources of absorption are thought to be decomposition (into carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere
and decomposition by bacteria in soil. Known and unknown sources of methane are estimated to total about 600
million metric tons annually; known sinks (i.e., absorption by natural processes) total about 560 million metric tons.
The annual increase in methane concentrations in the atmosphere accounts for the difference of 35 to 40 million
metric tons.
Nitrous Oxide. The sources and absorption of nitrous oxide (N₂O) are much more speculative than those for
other greenhouse gases. The principal sources are thought to be bacterial breakdown of nitrogen compounds in
soils, particularly forest soils, and fluxes from ocean upwellings. The primary human-made sources are
enhancement of natural processes through application of nitrogen fertilizers, combustion of fuels, and certain
industrial processes. The most important sink is thought to be decomposition in the stratosphere. Worldwide
estimated known sources of nitrous oxide total 13 to 20 million metric tons annually, and known sinks total 10 to 17
million metric tons. The annual increase in concentrations in the atmosphere is thought to total about 4 million
metric tons.
Halocarbons and Other Chemicals. In the twentieth century, human ingenuity has produced an array of
"engineered" chemicals not normally found in nature, whose special characteristics render them particularly useful.
Some engineered chemicals are also greenhouse gases. The best known class of greenhouse chemicals are the
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), particularly CFC-12, often known by its trade name, "freon-12." CFCs have many
desirable features: they are relatively simple to manufacture, inert, nontoxic, and nonflammable. Because CFCs
are chemically stable, once emitted, they remain in the atmosphere for hundreds or thousands of years. Because
they are not found in nature, these molecules absorb reflected infrared radiation at wavelengths that would
otherwise be largely unabsorbed, and they are potent greenhouse gases, with a direct radiative forcing effect
hundreds or thousands of times greater, gram-per-gram, than that of carbon dioxide.
Because of their long atmospheric lives, a portion of the CFCs emitted into the atmosphere eventually find their
way into the stratosphere, where they can be destroyed by sunlight. This reaction, however, releases free chlorine
atoms into the stratosphere, and the free chlorine atoms tend to destroy stratospheric ozone, which protects the
surface of the Earth from certain wavelengths of potentially damaging solar ultraviolet radiation (ultraviolet
radiation, for example, is one cause of human and animal skin cancers). The destruction of stratospheric ozone,
notwithstanding its potential damage to living organisms, exerts a net cooling effect on the surface of the planet,
making the net effects of CFCs on radiative forcing ambiguous.
The threat posed by CFCs to the ozone layer has caused the United States and many other countries to commit
themselves to phasing out the production of CFCs and their chemical cousins, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
pursuant to an international treaty, the 1987 Montreal Protocol. As use of CFCs has declined, many related
chemicals have emerged as alternatives, including HCFCs and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). HCFCs are similar to
CFCs, but they are more reactive and consequently have shorter atmospheric lives, with less effect on the ozone
layer and smaller direct global warming effects. HCFCs are also being phased out, but over a much longer time
scale.
HFCs have no chlorine, and consequently have no effect on the ozone layer, but they have potentially powerful
direct effects on climate. HFCs were rare before 1990, but in 1994 HFC-134a was adopted as the standard motor
vehicle air conditioning refrigerant in virtually all new cars made in America. Consequently, HFC emissions are
now rising rapidly, though from a negligible base.
Beyond the halocarbons (CFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, and PFCs) there are a range of engineered chemicals, produced
in relatively small quantities, which also have direct radiative forcing effects. These include the perfluorocarbons
(CF₄, C₂F₆, and C₃F₈) emitted as byproducts of aluminum smelting; some industrial solvents such as carbon
3 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:07
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
(CF₄, C₂F₆, and C₃F₈) emitted as byproducts of aluminum smelting; some industrial solvents such as carbon
tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, methylene chloride; and other more obscure chemicals such as sulfur
hexafluoride (SF₆) and, possibly, other chemicals not yet identified. Some of these compounds are regulated in the
United States as ozone depleters, or for toxicity, or both.
Criteria Pollutants. There are three gases, emitted primarily as byproducts of combustion (both of fossil fuels and
of biomass), which have an indirect effect on global warming: carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and nonmethane
volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). These compounds, regulated in the United Sates pursuant to the Clean
Air Act, are often referred to (along with particulates, lead, and sulfur dioxide) as "criteria pollutants." The criteria
pollutants are reactive compounds, and they tend to remain in the atmosphere for only hours or days. The
sequence of reactions that removes them from the atmosphere, however, tends to promote the formation of ozone
(O₃), a reactive and unstable molecular form of oxygen. While ozone in the stratosphere protects life on Earth from
ultraviolet radiation, ozone at ground level at high concentrations causes respiratory distress in people and
animals and also is, itself, a potent (though short-lived) greenhouse gas [9].
It has not proven possible to make a general determination of the contribution of criteria pollutants to global
warming. The reactions that produce ozone are strongly affected by the relative concentrations of various
pollutants, the ambient temperature, and local weather. Emissions of criteria pollutants can create very high,
though localized, ozone concentrations under favorable conditions (for example, a warm, sunny day combined
with still air and low humidity) and negligible concentrations under unfavorable conditions. The criteria pollutants
are included in this report for completeness.
Aerosols. Finally, there is a class of gases which probably exert a net cooling effect on the climate. These
compounds create a cooling effect by creating tiny solid particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere, which, in turn, act
as nuclei for collections of water droplets and stimulate cloud formation. The clouds, in turn, reflect sunlight back
into space, cooling the planet. The most important such gas is sulfur dioxide (SO₂), which is largely emitted as a
byproduct from the combustion of sulfur-containing fossil fuels, particularly coal. Sulfur dioxide reacts in the air to
form sulfate compounds that are effective in promoting cloud formation. Sulfur dioxide emissions are regulated in
the United States under the Clean Air Act and have declined considerably in recent years. Particulate emissions
are also likely to exert a net cooling effect.
Relative Forcing Effects of Various Gases
Some greenhouse gases are more potent in affecting global temperatures than are others. As a result,
comparable increases in the concentrations of different greenhouse gases can have vastly different heat-trapping
effects. Among those identified, carbon dioxide is among the least effective as a greenhouse gas. Other
compounds, on a gram-per-gram basis, appear to have much greater effects [10].
It would be useful to determine the precise relative effectiveness of various greenhouse gases in affecting the
Earth's climate. This information would help policymakers know whether it would be more effective to concentrate
effort on reducing the very small emissions of powerful greenhouse gases, such as HFC-134a, or whether they
should bend their efforts to controlling the very large emissions of relatively ineffective gases, such as carbon
dioxide.
There has been extensive study of the relative effectiveness of various greenhouse gases in trapping the Earth's
heat. This research has led to the development of the concept of a "global warming potential," or GWP. The GWP
is intended to illustrate the relative impacts on global warming of various gases, compared with carbon dioxide.
Over the past few years, the IPCC has conducted an extensive research program aimed at summarizing the
effects of various greenhouse gases through a set of GWPs. The results of that work were released last year in an
IPCC report, Climate Change 1994 [11] and updated this year in Climate Change 1995 [12].
The IPCC's work has established that the effects of various gases on global warming are too complex to permit
them to be easily summarized as a single number. The complexity takes several forms:
Each gas absorbs radiation in a particular set of wavelengths or "window," in the spectrum. In some cases,
where concentrations of the gas are low and no other gases block radiation in the same window, small
emissions of the gas will have a disproportionate absorptive effect. However, if concentrations of the gas
rise over time, a larger and larger portion of the total light passing through the "window" will already have
been captured, and the marginal effects of additional emissions will decline. Therefore, the effect of an
additional unit of emission of a gas that is relatively plentiful in the atmosphere, such as water vapor or
carbon dioxide, tends to be less than that of a rare gas, such as sulfur hexafluoride. This "diminishing
return" effect implies that increasing the concentration of a particular gas reduces the impact of adding
additional quantities of that gas. Thus, the relative impacts of various gases will change as their relative
concentrations in the atmosphere change.
Various natural processes cause many greenhouse gases to decompose into other gases, or to be
absorbed into the ocean or ground. These processes can be summarized in terms of the "atmospheric
lifetime" of a particular gas, or the period of time it would take for natural processes to remove a unit of
emissions from the atmosphere. Some gases, such as CFCs, have very long atmospheric lifetimes, in the
4 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:08
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.htm
emissions from the atmosphere. Some gases, such as CFCs, have very long atmospheric lifetimes, in the
hundreds of years, while others, such as carbon monoxide, have lives measured in hours or days.
Methane, which decays into carbon dioxide over a period of a few years, has a much larger short-run effect
on global warming than does an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide. However, over longer and longer
periods-from 10 years to 100 years to 500 years, for example-the differences between the GWPs of
methane and carbon dioxide become less significant.
Many gases are chemically active, and they may react in the atmosphere in ways that promote or hinder
the formation of other greenhouse gases. For example, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide combine to
promote the formation of ozone, which is a potent greenhouse gas, while CFCs tend to destroy atmospheric
ozone, thus promoting global cooling. These indirect effects have sometimes proven impossible to
summarize in terms of global warming potentials. Indirect effects also imply that changes in relative
concentrations of various greenhouse gases would tend to change their relative effects.
Despite such complexity, the scientific community is working to develop GWP approximations. Table 3
summarizes the consensus results of the most recent studies by scientists working on behalf of the IPCC, showing
estimates of atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials across various time scales.
Table 3. Numerical Estimates of Global Warming Potentials Compared With Carbon Dioxide
(Kilogram of Gas per Kilogram of Carbon Dioxide)
Lifetime
Direct Effect for Time Horizons of
Gas
(Years)
20 Years
100 Years
500 Years
Carbon Dioxide
Variable
1
1
1
Methane
12 ± 3
56
21
7
Nitrous Oxide
120
280
310
170
HFCs, PFCs, and Other Gases
HFC-23
264
9,200
12,100
9,900
HFC-125
33
4,800
3,200
11
HFC-134a
15
3,300
1,300
420
HFC-152a
2
460
140
42
HFC-227ea
37
4,300
2,900
950
Perfluoromethane
50,000
4,400
6,500
10,000
Perfluoroethane
10,000
6,200
9,200
14,000
Sulfur Hexafluoride
3,200
16,300
23,900
34,900
Note: The typical uncertainty for global warming potentials is estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change at +35 percent.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change
(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996), p. 121.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has also devoted effort to studies of indirect and interaction
effects of various gases-particularly the indirect effects of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and
hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) on the ozone layer-compared with their direct radiative forcing effects. The
IPCC presented GWP estimates for the first time this year that quantified the direct and indirect effects of certain
CFCs and HCFCs (Table 4). Certain chemicals (halon-1301 and carbon tetrachloride, for example) are now
believed to exert a net cooling influence-i.e., to have a negative global warming potential. All of the net global
warming potentials for CFCs and HCFCs are considerably lower than their direct GWPs. The authors of the IPCC
report believe that the relative magnitudes of the net GWPs are fairly reliable, but that the absolute levels have an
uncertainty of +50 percent [13].
Table 4. Numerical Estimates of Global Warming Potentials, Including Indirect Effects, for Selected
Chlorofluorocarbons and Hydrochlorofluorocarbons Compared With Carbon Dioxide
(Kilograms of Gas per Kilogram of Carbon Dioxide)
Magnitude of Effects
Gas
20-Year Integration
100-Year Integration
Direct Effects and
Direct Effects
Direct Effects and
Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Indirect Effects
Chlorofluorocarbons
CFC-11
4,900
1,200 to 2,900
3,800
540 to 2,100
CFC-12
7,800
6,000 to 6,800
8,100
6,000 to 7,100
5 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:09
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.htm
CFC-12
7,800
6,000 to 6,800
8,100
6,000 to 7,100
CFC-113
4,900
2,800 to 3,800
4,800
2,600 to 3,600
HFCs, PFCs, and Other Gases
HCFC-22
4,000
3,500 to 3,700
1,500
1,300 to 1,400
HCFC-123
300
60 to 170
90
20 to 50
HCFC-124
1,500
1,300 to 1,400
470
390 to 430
HCFC-141b
1,800
660 to 1,200
600
170 to 370
HCFC-142b
4,100
3,600 to 3,800
1,800
1,600 to 1,700
Halon-1301
6,100
-14,100 to -97,600
5,400
-14,100 to -84,000
Carbon Tetrachloride
1,900
-500 to -2,600
1,400
-650 to -2,400
Methyl Chloroform
300
-400 to -1,000
100
-130 to -320
Note: The typical uncertainty for net global warming potentials (including direct and indirect effects) is estimated
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at +50 percent.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change
(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996), p. 119.
Global Climate Change Policy Developments
Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were first detected in the late 1950s. Observations of
atmospheric concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide, and other gases began in the late 1970s. However,
concern about the effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases remained largely the province
of atmospheric scientists and climatologists until the mid-1980s, when a series of international scientific workshops
and conferences began to move the topic onto the agenda of United Nations specialized agencies, particularly, the
World Meteorological Office.
The IPCC was established under the auspices of the United Nations in late 1988, to accumulate available scientific
research on climate change and to provide scientific advice to policymakers. A series of international conferences
provided impetus for an international treaty aimed at limiting the human impact on climate. In December 1990, the
United Nations established the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate
Change (generally called the INC). Beginning in 1991, the INC hosted a series of negotiating sessions that
culminated in the signing, by more than 160 countries, including the United States, of the Framework Convention
on Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro on May 4, 1992 [14]. The objective of the Framework Convention ("the Rio
Treaty") was to:
achieve
stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system [15].
The Framework Convention, as it emerged from the negotiations, was based on the concept of voluntary
commitments by signatories to take steps to implement the objectives of the Convention. These steps, as
described in the treaty, include national commitments to prepare and submit for review national action plans and
periodic national emissions inventories. Developed country signatories (including the United States), referred to in
the language of the convention as "Annexe I Countries," made additional commitments:
Each of these Parties shall communicate
detailed information on its policies and measures
[to limit
emissions of greenhouse gases]
with the aim of returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels these
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.
This information will be reviewed by the Conference of the Parties, at its first session and periodically thereafter
[16].
The greenhouses gases "controlled by the Montreal Protocol" are CFCs and HCFCs, which are explicitly defined
as being outside the scope of the Framework Convention.
Pursuant to the requirement to "communicate
detailed information" on policies and measures, the outgoing
Bush Administration prepared a draft national action plan in December 1992 [17]. On April 21, 1993 (Earth Day),
President Clinton committed the United States to stabilizing its emissions of greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by
the year 2000. The methods proposed by the Government to achieve this objective were described in the
President's Climate Change Action Plan, published in October 1993 [18]. That document spells out a range of
largely voluntary programs intended to achieve the stabilization objective. More detail-oriented readers may wish
to consult the Technical Supplement to the Plan, published in early 1994, which spells out the assumptions
underlying the Plan in greater detail [19].
The Conference of the Parties is required to meet annually to discuss the implementation of the Framework
Convention, and to review countries' voluntary commitments to limit their emissions. The first such meeting was
held in Berlin in April 1995. By 1995, the signatories' focus had shifted from meeting emissions targets for the year
6 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:09
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
held in Berlin in April 1995. By 1995, the signatories' focus had shifted from meeting emissions targets for the year
2000 to the question of what steps would be taken beyond 2000. At Berlin, the Conference of the Parties agreed
on "the Berlin Mandate," which was an agreement "to begin a process to enable it [the Conference of the Parties]
to take appropriate action for the period beyond 2000
through the adoption of a protocol or another legal
instrument" [20]-in other words, to negotiate a successor agreement to the Framework Convention for the next
decade. However, the Berlin Mandate accelerated the "two track" approach to emissions limitation already in
evidence in the Framework Convention. There were to be no new commitments for developing countries: rather
they were to be encouraged to implement their commitments under the Framework Convention. Meanwhile, the
Annexe I countries would move ahead with negotiating additional measures.
The past year has been spent in considering the possible forms the successor agreement might take. The most
recent report of the IPCC has been cited by member governments, including the U.S. Government, as evidence
that motivates further measures to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. The second Conference of the Parties
was held in Geneva in July 1996. At that meeting, the Conference issued a "Ministerial Declaration" to the effect
that the Governments present would:
Instruct their representatives to accelerate negotiations on the text of a legally-binding protocol or other legal
instrument to be completed in due time for adoption at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties [i.e., by
July 1997]. The outcome should fully encompass the remit of the Berlin Mandate, in particular,
policies and measures including, as appropriate
quantified legally-binding objectives for emission limitations and significant overall reductions within
specified timeframes, such as 2005, 2010, 2020, with respect to their anthropogenic emissions
[21].
Thus, the governments of the United States and Western Europe have agreed to negotiate, within the next year, a
treaty with quantified emissions targets over the next two decades. The target levels, and the measures to be
proposed to meet the targets, remain to be seen.
U.S. Emissions in an International Perspective
The United States is the world's largest single emitter of carbon dioxide, accounting for about 23 percent of
energy-related carbon emissions worldwide. The U.S. share of methane and nitrous oxide emissions, although
uncertain, is likely to be much lower than its share of carbon dioxide emissions, as the principal sources of
methane and nitrous oxide emissions are more common outside than within the United States. In the case of
halocarbons and other gases, the U.S. share is likely to be considerably larger than 23 percent, because the use
of cooling and refrigeration equipment is probably much more pervasive in the United States than elsewhere in the
world.
In recent decades, the carbon dioxide emissions of North America and Western Europe have been growing
relatively slowly (Figure 1). The worldwide growth in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions has come from rapid
growth in the developing world and in the former centrally planned economies. The most striking development in
the 1990s has been the rapid reduction in energy consumption (and hence carbon emissions) in the countries of
the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, where emissions dropped by more than 20 percent between 1989
and 1992 and have continued to decline through 1994. Emissions reductions in former communist countries have
been sufficient to stabilize world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels through 1994, despite
continuing rapid growth in the developing world, stable emissions in Western Europe, and slow growth in the
United States.
7 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:10
http://www.eia:doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap1.htm
Figure 1. Energy-Related Carbon Emissions
by Region, 1970-1994
1,600
North
America
1,400
Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons)
1,200
Forme Soulet Union
and Pasten Ex rope
1 000
Weren
800
Eerope
Japan and
600
Pacific Rim
400
Affica. Middle East,
Lath America,
200
Citiz and
and Solth Asla
trally P tab sed Acia
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1994
Source: Estimated by the Energy Information Administration,
based on world energy consumption as reported in Energy
Information Administration, International Energy Annual,
DOE/E A0219 (Washington, DC. various years): The data set
is available at http://www.ia.dce.gov.
This year, the EIA released a projection of worldwide carbon emissions estimates in its International Energy
Outlook 1996 [22]. That projection suggests that the post-communist decline in energy consumption is a one-time
phenomenon, and that energy consumption in these countries will "bottom out" in the next few years and begin to
rise again. Since the EIA also expects rapid growth in energy consumption in the developing world to continue, the
prospect is for continued growth in worldwide carbon emissions.
TO:
Chapter 2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions
GG96RPT Home Page
File last modified: 10/22/96
Energy Information Administration/ Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1995
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/gg96rpt/chap1.html
If you having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at [email protected]
8 of 8
05/06/97 14:06:16
http://www.eia.doe.gov/...1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap2.hfml
2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Energy
Electric
Industrial
Overview
Adjustments to Energy
Carbon Dioxide
Consumption
Utilities
Sources
Consumption
Data Tables
Overview
U.S. Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-1995
Carbon
Carbon
Dioxide
Equivalent
Estimated 1995 Emissions
(Million Metric Tons)
5,288.5
1,442.3
Change Compared to 1994
39.9
10.9
(Million Metric Tons)
Change from 1994
0.8
0.8
(Percent)
Change Compared to 1990
257.9
70.3
(Million Metric Tons)
Change from 1990
5.1
5.1
(Percent)
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are largely caused by the combustion of coal, natural gas, and petroleum [23]. A
fraction (less than 2 percent) comes from other sources, including the manufacture of cement and lime. Total
estimated emissions increased by 0.8 percent from 1994 to about 1,442 million metric tons of carbon in 1995
(Table 5) [24]. Compared to 1990 emissions levels, the increase is about 70 million metric tons or 5.1 percent [25].
Over the long term, carbon dioxide emissions are related to trends in economic activity and energy consumption,
as well as the particulars of fuel choice. In the 1990s the growth in energy consumption lagged behind trends in
the economy. For example, in 1995 the economy grew by about 2.1 percent, while energy consumption increased
slightly less, by about 1.9 percent (Figure 2). Carbon dioxide emissions rose even less, by a modest 0.8 percent,
because of increased nuclear and hydroelectric power production. Between 1994 and 1995 total energy
consumption in the United States increased by 1.7 quadrillion Btu. Although low emitting nuclear power and
renewable fuels ordinarily provide about 15 percent of the U.S. energy supply, gains from these sources supplied
two-thirds of the increase in U.S. energy requirements for 1995, thereby moderating growth in energy-related
carbon emissions. The year-to-year increase was only about 11 million metric tons of carbon in 1995, a smaller
increase than in the previous year (Figure 3).
Figure 2. Indices of U.S. Gross Domestic Product,
Population, Energy Consumption, and
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-1995
110
GDP
105
Population
Index (1990=100)
Energy
100
CO.
95
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Sources: Carbon dioxide emissions are E IA estimates
documented in this report. Energy umption, gross national
in
1 of 6
05/06/97 14:09:13
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
...
Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review
1995 D OE/EIA-0384(95) (Was hington, DC, July 1990 PP. 5,
13, and 367.
Figure 3. Annual Change in U.S. Carbon Dioxide
Emissions, 1990-1995
40
30
25.3
26.6
20.7
Million Metric Tons Carbon
20
10.9
10
0
-10
-13.2
-20
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Source: Estimates presented in this chapter.
Energy Consumption
Energy End-Use Sector Sources of
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-1995
Million Metric
Percent
Tons Carbon
Change
Sector
1990-
1994-
1990
1995
1995
1995
Transportation
432.1
457.2
5.8
1.5
Industrial
452.4
462.9
2.3
-0.1
Commercial
206.7
218.4
5.6
2.0
Residential
253
270.9
7.1
0.9
Note: Electric utility emissions are distributed across sectors.
Recent Trends
EIA energy statistics partition total energy consumption into four end-use sectors: industrial, transportation,
residential, and commercial. For all the sectors except transportation, a substantial portion of the energy used is
consumed as electricity. In the future most of the growth in energy consumption is expected to be in the
transportation sector and in the use of electricity. In this report, emissions for each sector are defined as the sum
of emissions resulting from the direct burning of fuels plus emissions associated with producing electric power
used in the sector. This approach makes sectoral analysis more meaningful and helps to reveal the full value of
conservation when electricity is conserved. Not only is final energy saved but also the substantial amount of
energy (and associated emissions) taken as "losses" in electric power generation. More than two-thirds of the
carbon dioxide emissions in the residential and commercial sectors are derived from electricity (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from E lectric
and Non-electric Sources by
Energy End-Use Sector, 1995
500
456.5
Electric
Non-eledric
400
one of Carbon
296.5
300
2 of 6
05/06/97 14:09:19
http://www.eia.doe.gov/.1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
200
166.4
171 3
155.5
IIIII
11111
62.9
0.6
II
Transportision Industrial Residential Commercial
Prims
Industrial
About one-third of end-use carbon dioxide emissions are accounted for by the industrial sector (Table 6), which
comprises manufacturing industries, the largest part of the sector, along with mining, construction, agriculture,
fisheries, and forestry. Energy consumption is dominated by the need for heat and power; however, a large share
of industrial energy use involves consumption of raw materials for petrochemical feedstocks. Natural gas and
electricity consumption each account for about one-third of the energy consumed in this sector (with losses in
electricity generation included).
Although some carbon in the "nonfuel" use of energy is sequestered (Table 7), emissions amounted to nearly 463
million metric tons of carbon in 1995, up 0.5 percent from the previous year (Table 8). Energy efficiency
improvements, combined with low growth in energy-intensive industries, have moderated trends in carbon dioxide
emissions while total industrial output has expanded. Between 1990 and 1995, emissions for this sector increased
by 10.5 million metric tons of carbon.
Transportation
The transportation sector accounts for about one-third of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. Growth in this sector is
more rapid than in the other end-use sectors. Increases in the driving age population, low energy prices, and
stable average fuel efficiency in vehicles all contribute to expanding energy consumption. Motor gasoline accounts
for nearly two-thirds of transportation sector energy consumption. Together with emissions from distillate, residual,
and jet fuels, total emissions were about 457 million metric tons of carbon for the transportation sector in 1995 (just
under the amount emitted by the industrial sector) (Table 9). Transportation sector emissions have accounted for
nearly 25 million metric tons, or nearly 40 percent, of the national increase for end-use sectors since 1990.
Forecasts of U.S. energy markets imply that emissions from transportation will overtake those from the industrial
sector sometime before the year 2000 (Figure 5) [26].
Figure 5. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Emissions
by Sector, 1990-1995
500
Industry
400
Transportation
Million Metric Tonsof Carbon
300
Residential
200
Commercial
100
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Note: Electr ic utility emiss ions are distr ibuted across end-use
consumption sectors.
Source: Estimates presented in this chapter.
Residential
Carbon dioxide emissions from this sector account for less than one-fifth of U.S. emissions (Table 6). Most of
these emissions are associated with the use of natural gas and electricity for space heating and air conditioning
and thus are subject to the vagaries of the weather. In 1995 residential emissions declined slightly due tomilder
weather, which lowered consumption of distillate fuels and natural gas. However, over the 5-year period from
3 of 6
05/06/97 14:09:25
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
weather, which lowered consumption of distillate fuels and natural gas. However, over the 5-year period from
1990, residential emissions have accounted for 18 million metric tons, or about one-third, of the increase in carbon
dioxide emissions for all end-use sectors (Table 10).
Commercial
The commercial sector contributes the smallest share of carbon dioxide emissions, about 15 percent of the total.
Since this sector includes all business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing
or other types of industrial activity (agriculture, mining, or construction), most of the energy consumed is electricity
and natural gas. Commercial sector carbon dioxide emissions increased by 1.6 million metric tons or 0.7 percent
to 218.5 million metric tons in 1995 (Table 11). Between 1990 and 1995 the commercial sector accounted for
nearly 12 million tons of the total increase in U.S. emissions.
Electric Utilities
Electric Utility Carbon Dioxide Emissions
by Fuel Input, 1990 and 1995
Million Metric
Percent
Tons Carbon
Change
Fuel
1990-
1994-
1990
1995
1995
1995
Petroleum
26.6
14.0
-47.4
-32.1
Natural Gas
41.2
47.0
14.2
7.0
Coal
409.0
432.8
5.8
0.6
Total
476.9
493.8
3.6
-0.2
Although end users create the demand for electricity, the utilities make decisions about how to meet that demand,
based on fuel prices and capacity availability. In 1995 demand for power increased by 2.9 percent, but utility
carbon emissions declined because nuclear and conventional hydroelectric power generation met a
disproportionately large share of the increased demand. Water conditions in the Pacific Northwest were better
than normal in 1995, and the average capacity factor for nuclear power was up to 78 percent, following a pattern
consistent with a long-term trend in improved availability. Neither of these power sources is associated with any
significant carbon dioxide emissions.
Over the longer term, the trend in electric utility emissions has been upward. Although utility efforts to improve
efficiency in production and to implement demand-side management programs have kept emissions lower than
they otherwise would have been, between 1990 and 1995 emissions from burning fossil fuels to meet end-use
demand accounted for an increase of 17 million metric tons of carbon [27]. This was primarily because of
increased use of coal, the highest emitting fuel, which currently provides 55 percent of U.S. electric power (Table
12). In the future, expanded use of natural gas may slow further growth in emissions.
Industrial Sources
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from
Industrial Sources, 1990-1995
Estimated 1995 Emissions
21.3
(Million Metric Tons Carbon)
Change Compared to 1994
0.3
(Million Metric Tons Carbon)
Change from 1994
1.4
(Percent)
Change Compared to 1990
2.4
(Million Metric Tons Carbon)
Change from 1990
12.8
(Percent)
Recent Trends
Emissions from industrial sources account for only about 1.5 percent of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. This
level of emissions fluctuates annually between 20 and 21 million metric tons of carbon, depending largely on the
level of activity in the construction industries and production at oil and gas wells. The remaining, relatively minor,
4 of 6
05/06/97 14:09:25
http://www.eia.doe.gov/...1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
sources are limestone and dolomite consumption, soda ash manufacture and consumption, carbon dioxide
manufacture, and aluminum production. Most of the change in 1995 resulted from increased cement production
and manufacture of lime [28].
Energy Production
When an oil field is developed for petroleum extraction, any natural gas associated with that field may be flared if
its use is not economically justifiable. This is typically the case with a remote site or when the gas is of poor quality
or minimal volume. In the United States the total amount of natural gas vented or flared has increased in recent
years, from about 150 billion cubic feet in 1990 to 228 billion cubic feet in 1994. The portion flared caused nearly 2
million metric tons of carbon emissions in 1995 (Table 13).
Industrial Processes
Industrial processes account for about 18 to 20 million metric tons of carbon emissions per year (Table 14). Since
1990, emissions from industrial process have increased due to an increase in emissions from cement manufacture
and limestone consumption (partially offset by a decrease in emissions from aluminum manufacture). More than
one-half of the emissions from industrial process are from cement manufacture. When calcium carbonate is
heated (calcined) in a kiln, it is converted to lime and carbon dioxide. The lime is combined with other materials to
produce clinker (an intermediate product from which cement is made), while the carbon dioxide is released to the
atmosphere. In 1995, the United States manufactured an estimated 77 million metric tons of cement, or 6 percent
of the world's total. In recent years, this has resulted in emissions of 9 to 10 million metric tons of carbon.
There are numerous other industrial processes in which carbonate minerals are used in ways that release carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere, including the use of limestone in flue gas desulfurization and the manufacture and
some uses of soda ash. Approximately 5 million metric tons of carbon per year is emitted from these sources.
Carbon dioxide is also released during aluminum smelting, when carbon anodes (with the carbon ultimately
derived from nonfuel use of fossil fuels) are vaporized in the presence of aluminum oxide.
Adjustments to Energy Consumption
Under the Framework Convention, parties to the agreement committed to providing information on emissions
trends, using methods that would facilitate international comparison of emissions estimates. To support such
comparisons, a generalized reporting format was adopted. The format differs slightly from that used in the
preparation of U.S. national energy statistics, primarily with respect to the definition of "consumption" and the
treatment of energy consumption in U.S. territories and consumption of bunker fuels for international transport.
EIA's energy data for the United States cover the 50 States and the District of Columbia but not the U.S. territories.
Bunker fuels (fuel consumed by ships and aircraft engaged in international trade) are subsumed in EIA's
transportation sector energy consumption data. By contrast, energy data used by the International Energy Agency
for the United States include U.S. territories and excludes bunker fuels. Finally, the generalized format uses a
"top-down" approach to estimate "apparent energy consumption" from data on energy production and trade. For
most countries around the world this is the best approach, because energy consumption is not always accurately
reported. For the United States, however, the EIA provides information (used for estimates in this report) on
consumption by end-use sector and fuel type for a wide array of petroleum products, coal, and natural gas.
Collectively, these differences in treatment can produce variations of several percentage points in reported energy
consumption, and hence in the estimates of carbon emissions. The methodology for calculating U.S. territories'
emissions and other adjustments, is described in Appendix A.
U.S. Territories
In this report, carbon dioxide emissions for the U.S. territories (Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, American
Samoa, Micronesia, and Wake Island) are included as an adjustment. Their combined energy consumption is only
about 0.5 quadrillion Btu and is concentrated on petroleum products; only Puerto Rico uses coal. Together, they
emitted an estimated 12 million metric tons of carbon in 1995 (Table 15).
Bunker Fuels
In this report, emissions from bunker fuels are subsumed in the estimates of carbon emissions from energy
consumption [29]. These emissions are also shown separately in Table 15. The estimate is based on purchases of
fuel by ocean-going ships in U.S. ports and by international air carriers in U.S. airports. In 1994 bunker fuel
emissions amounted to about 21 million metric tons of carbon.
Unmetered Gas
If consumption is estimated as "apparent consumption" using a top-down approach based on production plus
imports minus exports plus stock change, then statistical discrepancies will be included in consumption. There are
5 of 6
05/06/97 14:09:26
http://www.eia.doe.gov/...1605/gg96rpt/chap2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/chap2.ntml
statistical discrepancies between estimated U.S. production and consumption of all fossil fuels. In the case of
natural gas, it is probable (though by no means certain) that some portion of the statistical discrepancy is due to
unreported natural gas consumption and stock changes. Therefore, this report includes an estimate of emissions
from "unaccounted for natural gas" (which is likely to be due to unreported consumption) as an adjustment to the
national emissions estimate. This item is also part of the difference between emissions estimates based on
"apparent consumption" and estimates based on consumption actually reported. In recent years, the amount of
carbon emissions from this source has varied from -1 to 4 million metric tons.
TO:
Carbon Dioxide Data Tables
TO:
Chapter 3. Methane Emissions
GG96RPT Home Page
File last modified: 10/22/96
Energy Information Administration/Emissions Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1995
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/gg96rpt/chap2.html
If you having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at [email protected]
6 of 6
05/06/97 14:09:27
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 5. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy and Industry, 1988-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Fuel Type or Process
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Energy Consumption
Petroleum
601.6
601.2
589.4
569.9
581.3
583.5
596.5
594.3
Coal
479.2
479.8
481.5
475.7
478.5
494.6
496.6
498.4
Natural Gas
263.1
274.8
273.4
279.1
286.5
297.0
303.4
316.6
Total Energy
1,344.0
1,355.8
1,344.2
Consumption
1,324.6
1,346.3
1,375.0
1,396.5
1,409.4
Adjustments to U.S. Energy
U.S. Territories
8.5
9.4
9.3
10.9
9.9
10.7
12.5
10.7
Unmetered Gas
3.7
0.4
-0.4
4.4
4.3
-1.1
1.4
0.9
Total Adjustments
12.2
9.8
8.9
15.3
14.2
9.6
14.0
11.7
Other Sources
Cement Production
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.5
8.6
9.1
9.7
10.5
Other Industrial
8.1
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.4
9.0
Gas Flaring
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.9
2.9
1.8
Total Other Sources
18.5
18.7
18.9
18.9
18.9
20.2
21.0
21.3
Total
1,374.7
1,384.3
1,372.0
1,358.8
1,379.5
1,404.8
1,431.4
1,442.3
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Emissions coefficients are annualized for coal, motor gasoline, liquefied petroleum gases, jet fuel, and crude oil.
Includes emissions from bunker fuels. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Source: EIA estimates documented in Chapter 2 of this report and in Appendix A.
Table 6. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector, 1988-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
End Use
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Energy Consumption
Residential
264.8
267.5
253.0
257.1
255.9
271.6
268.6
270.9
Commercial
207.6
210.0
206.7
206.4
205.5
212.1
214.1
218.4
Industrial
444.1
445.6
452.4
436.6
453.6
453.7
463.3
462.9
Transportation
427.5
432.7
432.1
424.5
431.4
437.5
450.4
457.2
Total Energy
1,344.0
1,355.8
1,344.2
1,324.6
1,346.3
1,375.0
1,396.5
1,409.4
Electric Utilitya
475.9
483.5
476.9
473.5
472.9
490.6
494.8
493.8
ᵃEstimates of additional carbon dioxide emissions from the use of flue gas desulfurization are included in Table
13.
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Includes energy from petroleum, coal, and natural gas. Electric utility emissions are distributed across
1 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:20
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Notes: Includes energy from petroleum, coal, and natural gas. Electric utility emissions are distributed across
consumption sectors. Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions
of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Source: EIA estimates documented in Chapter 2 of this report and in Appendix A.
Table 7. U.S. Carbon Sequestered by Nonfuel Use of Energy, 1988-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
End Use
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Industrial
Petroleum
Liquefied Petroleum Gases
16.5
17.2
17.5
19.3
19.8
22.1
24.6
24.7
Asphalt and Road Oil
23.5
22.7
22.5
22.3
22.7
23.7
24.1
24.2
Lubricants
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
Other
22.3
22.4
19.9
25.2
26.4
25.3
26.4
25.1
Petrochemical Feed
15.5
15.5
12.7
17.8
18.6
18.7
19.3
18.1
Petroleum Coke
2.1
1.9
2.6
2.2
3.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
Waxes and Misc.
4.8
4.9
4.6
5.2
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.2
Coal
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Natural Gas
4.2
4.3
4.2
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.8
3.9
Transportation
Lubricants
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
Total
70.4
70.5
68.1
73.7
76.0
78.4
82.8
81.9
P = preliminary data.
Note: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Source: EIA estimates documented in Chapter 2 of this report and in Appendix A.
2 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:21
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 8. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use in the Industrial Sector, 1984-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Fuel
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Petroleum
Motor
3.1
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.5
Gasoline
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.8
LPG
16.5
16.9
16.0
13.8
13.6
12.6
9.8
10.3
11.8
8.3
9.4
9.4
Distillate Fuel
23.5
23.4
23.7
24.2
24.1
22.7
23.3
22.5
22.6
21.7
21.9
22.1
Residual Fuel
18.9
15.9
15.7
12.4
11.6
8.8
8.9
7.1
8.3
9.6
8.9
7.9
Lubricants
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
Kerosene
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
Other
39.0
36.7
36.7
39.8
44.9
43.8
51.5
42.9
49.8
47.1
50.0
48.3
Total
103.9
99.7
98.3
96.5
100.3
94.0
99.2
88.4
98.1
92.2
96.0
93.6
Coal
69.5
67.4
64.7
66.0
71.2
69.5
68.5
64.8
63.0
62.3
62.9
62.2
Natural Gas
104.2
99.0
93.3
102.0
107.0
113.1
118.5
121.2
126.1
131.7
134.5
140.7
Electricity
156.8
158.0
152.7
158.1
165.5
169.1
166.2
162.3
166.5
167.5
169.9
166.4
Total
434.4
424.1
409.0
422.7
444.1
445.6
452.4
436.6
453.6
453.7
463.3
462.9
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Source: Energy Information Administration estimates, based on energy data from State Energy Data Report
1994, DOE/EIA-0214(94) (Washington, DC, July 1996), and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0535(96/07)
(Washington, DC, July 1996), and emissions coefficients shown in Table B1 of this report.
3 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:22
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 9. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use in the Transportation Sector, 1984-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Fuel
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Petroleum
Motor
241.6
245.1
252.8
Gasoline
259.0
264.9
264.2
260.9
259.5
263.4
270.1
274.7
280.7
LPG
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
Jet Fuel
46.5
48.0
51.6
54.6
57.3
58.8
60.1
58.1
57.6
58.1
60.4
60.0
Distillate Fuel
62.1
63.3
65.3
66.9
72.9
75.8
75.7
72.6
75.3
77.3
82.5
83.8
Residual Fuel
17.2
16.7
18.5
19.2
19.6
20.8
21.9
22.0
23.0
19.4
19.1
18.5
Lubricants
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
Aviation Gas
0.8
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
Total
370.5
376.1
391.2
402.7
417.6
422.6
421.5
414.8
421.9
427.6
439.6
445.9
Natural Gas
7.8
7.5
7.2
7.7
9.1
9.4
9.8
8.9
8.8
9.3
10.2
10.6
Electricity
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
Total
379.0
384.4
399.1
411.1
427.5
432.7
432.1
424.5
431.4
437.5
450.4
457.2
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Source: Energy Information Administration estimates, based on energy data from State Energy Data Report
1994, DOE/EIA-0214(94) (Washington, DC, July 1996), and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0535(96/07)
(Washington, DC, July 1996), and emissions coefficients shown in Table B1 of this report.
4 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:23
http://www.eia.doe.gov/...1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 10. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use in the Residential Sector, 1984-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Fuel
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Petroleum
LPG
4.9
5.5
5.5
6.1
6.0
6.8
6.2
6.6
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.7
Distillate
19.0
19.7
Fuel
20.0
20.3
21.0
20.6
16.5
16.4
17.1
18.0
17.4
17.6
Kerosene
1.7
3.1
2.4
2.3
2.8
2.3
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.4
Total
25.6
28.3
27.8
28.8
29.8
29.7
24.0
24.4
24.8
26.2
25.3
25.8
Coal
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
Natural Gas
67.5
65.7
63.8
63.9
68.5
70.9
65.1
67.5
69.4
73.4
71.8
72.4
Electricity
146.0
149.9
150.6
156.7
164.8
165.4
162.4
163.8
160.2
170.6
170.0
171.3
Total
241.1
245.8
244.0
251.0
264.8
267.5
253.0
257.1
255.9
271.6
268.6
270.9
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Source: Energy Information Administration estimates, based on energy data from State Energy Data Report
1994, DOE/EIA-0214(94) (Washington, DC, July 1996), and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0535(96/07)
(Washington, DC, July 1996), and emissions coefficients shown in Table B1 of this report.
5 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:24
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 11. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use in the Commercial Sector, 1984-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Fuel
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Petroleum
Motor
2.1
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
Gasoline
2.0
2.1
1.6
1.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
LPG
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
Distillate
13.5
12.3
11.8
11.7
Fuel
11.3
10.6
9.6
9.5
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
Residual
5.6
4.8
6.2
5.6
5.6
Fuel
4.9
5.0
4.5
4.1
3.7
3.7
3.6
Kerosene
1.8
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
Total
23.8
20.6
21.9
21.4
20.6
19.2
18.0
17.1
16.1
14.9
14.9
15.0
Coal
3.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
Natural Gas
37.3
36.0
34.3
36.0
39.5
40.3
38.8
40.4
41.5
43.1
42.9
45.9
Electricity
124.4
130.2
131.5
137.2
144.8
148.3
147.5
146.7
145.6
151.8
154.1
155.5
Total
188.8
189.6
190.4
197.2
207.6
210.0
206.7
206.4
205.5
212.1
214.1
218.4
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Source: Energy Information Administration estimates, based on energy data from State Energy Data Report
1994, DOE/EIA-0214(94) (Washington, DC, July 1996), and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0535(96/07)
(Washington, DC, July 1996), and emissions coefficients shown in Table B1 of this report.
6 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:26
http://www.eia.doe.gov/...1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 12. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electric Utilities, 1984-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Fuel
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Petroleum
27.3
23.1
30.8
26.7
33.2
35.7
26.6
25.1
20.3
22.5
20.6
14.0
Heavy Fuel
25.3
21.2
28.9
24.6
30.7
32.4
Oil
24.2
22.9
18.2
20.0
18.0
11.6
Light Fuel Oil
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.8
2.2
2.9
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.8
Petroleum
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.8
Coke
1.0
0.7
0.6
Coal
354.3
370.3
365.9
383.7
403.7
406.5
409.0
407.3
411.9
428.6
430.2
432.8
Natural Gas
46.3
45.5
38.7
42.2
39.0
41.2
41.2
41.1
40.7
39.5
44.0
47.0
Total
427.9
438.9
435.4
452.6
475.9
483.5
476.9
473.5
472.9
490.6
494.8
493.8
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Electric utilities include Independent Power Producers but exclude cogeneration facilities. Data in this
table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the
United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995). Totals may not equal sum of
components due to independent rounding.
Source: Energy Information Administration estimates, based on energy data from State Energy Data Report
1994, DOE/EIA-0214(94) (Washington, DC, July 1996), and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0535(96/07)
(Washington, DC, July 1996), and emissions coefficients shown in Table B1 of this report.
Table 13. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Gas Flaring, 1988-1995
Item
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Basic Data
Total Natural Gas Vented
and Flared
102.18
101.56
111.08
127.64
124.23
175.92
176.83
108.97
(Billion Cubic Feet)
Btu Content of Flare Gas
1,109
(Btu per Cubic Foot)
1,107
1,105
1,108
1,110
1,106
1,106
1,106
Carbon Emissions from
Flaring
1.69
1.68
1.83
2.11
2.06
2.90
2.92
1.80
(Million Metric Tons)
P = preliminary data.
Note: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual, DOE/EIA-0131 (Washington, DC, 1987-1994),
and Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(96/05) (Washington, DC, May 1996); and U.S. Department of Energy,
An Evaluation of the Relationship Between the Production and Use of Energy and Atmospheric Methane
Emissions, DOE/NBB-0088P (Washington, DC, April 1990).
7 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:27
http://www.eia.doe.go/...1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 14. U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Industrial Sources, 1988-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Source
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
Cement Manufacture
Clinker Production
8.67
8.69
8.75
8.51
8.59
9.09
9.64
10.49
Masonry Cement
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
Total
8.69
8.71
8.77
8.53
8.61
9.11
9.67
10.52
Other Industrial
Limestone Consumption
Lime Manufacture
3.31
3.33
3.39
3.36
3.47
3.63
3.70
3.96
Iron Smelting
0.50
0.51
0.47
0.44
0.37
0.31
0.52
0.52
Steelmaking
0.10
0.13
0.08
0.09
0.07
0.13
0.15
0.15
Glass Manufacture
0.06
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.07
Flue Gas Desulfurization
0.45
0.53
0.52
0.55
0.54
0.51
0.55
0.70
Total
4.43
4.53
4.50
4.46
4.49
4.63
5.00
5.40
Dolomite Consumption
0.12
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.08
0.07
0.08
0.08
Soda Ash Manufacture
0.86
0.93
0.92
0.92
0.94
0.91
0.92
1.04
Soda Ash Consumption
Glass Manufacture
0.38
0.37
0.36
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.36
0.35
Flue Gas Desulfurization
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
Sodium Silicate
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.07
Sodium Tripolyphosphate
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Total
0.50
0.49
0.46
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
Carbon Dioxide Manufacture
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.29
Aluminum Production
1.99
2.03
2.04
2.08
2.04
1.86
1.66
1.69
Total Other Industrial
8.11
8.30
8.26
8.26
8.27
8.20
8.41
8.97
Total
16.80
17.00
17.03
16.79
16.88
17.31
18.08
19.49
P = preliminary data.
Notes: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: Methodologies and sources of trend data documented in Appendix A.
8 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:28
http://www.eia.doe.gov/..1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
Table 15. Carbon Emissions from U.S. Territories, International Bunkers, and Unmetered Gas
Consumption, 1988-1995
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon)
Item
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
P1995
U.S. Territories
8.5
9.4
9.3
10.9
9.9
10.7
12.5
10.7
Bunker Fuels
20.7
21.9
21.7
22.9
24.2
21.8
21.0
NA
Unmetered Natural Gas
3.7
0.4
-0.4
4.4
4.3
-1.1
1.4
0.9
Consumption
P = preliminary data. NA = not available.
Note: Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases in the United States 1987-1994, DOE/EIA-0573(87-94) (Washington, DC, October 1995).
Source: Estimates documented in Chapter 2 of this report.
GG96RPT Home Page
File last modified: 10/22/96
Energy Information Administration/Emissions Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1995
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/gg96rpt/2tabs.html
If you having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at [email protected]
9 of 9
05/06/97 14:14:30
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe..ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
Human Activities that are Affecting Global Climate Change:
EPA Report on Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Sinks: 1990-94
This document provides information on greenhouse gas sources and sinks, and estimates of emissions and
removals for the United States for 1990-1994, as well as the methods used to calculate these estimates and the
uncertainties associated with them. The emission estimates presented here were calculated using the IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC/OECD/IEA, 1995) to ensure that the greenhouse gas
emission inventories prepared by the United States to meet its commitments under the Framework Convention on
Climate Change are consistent and comparable across sectors and between nations. In order to fully comply with
the IPCC Guidelines, the United States has provided a copy of the IPCC reporting tables in Annex G of this report.
These tables include the data used to calculate emission estimates using the IPCC Guidelines. The United States
has followed these guidelines, except where more detailed data or methodologies were available for major U.S.
sources of emissions. In such cases, the United States expanded on the IPCC guidelines to provide a more
comprehensive and accurate account of U.S. emissions. These instances have been documented, and
explanations have been provided for diverging from the IPCC Guidelines (IPCC/OECD/IEA, 1995).
If you would like to order this report, please visit The National Center for Environmental Publications and
Information web site (NCEPI), call NCEPI at (513) 489-8190, or fax your request to NCEPI at (513) 489-8695. In
your request, be sure to specify the document, "Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:
1990-1994," (EPA 230-R-96-006, November 1994). NCEPI is a central repository for all EPA documents with over
5500 titles in paper and/or electronic format, available for distribution.
The Greenhouse Gases and Photochemically Important Gases
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide
(N2O), and ozone (O₃). Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (a family of human-made compounds), its substitute
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and other compounds such as perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), are also greenhouse
gases. In addition, other photochemically important gases - such as carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen
(NOX), and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) - are not greenhouse gases, but contribute
indirectly to the greenhouse effect (see Box ES-1 for explanation). These are commonly referred to as
"tropospheric ozone precursors" because they influence the rate at which ozone and other gases are created and
destroyed in the atmosphere. For convenience, all gases discussed in this summary are generically referred to as
"greenhouse gases" (unless otherwise noted), although the reader should keep these distinctions in mind. In
addition, emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are reported. Sulfur gases, primarily sulfur dioxide, are believed to
contribute negatively to the greenhouse effect.
Recent Trends of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Although CO₂, CH₄and N₂O occur naturally in the atmosphere, their recent atmospheric buildup appears to be
largely the result of anthropogenic activities. This growth has altered the composition of the Earth's atmosphere,
and may affect future global climate. Since 1800, atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ have increased by more than
25 percent, CH₄ concentrations have more than doubled, and N₂O concentrations have risen approximately 8
percent (IPCC, 1992). From the 1950s until the mid-1980s, the use of CFCs increased by nearly 10 percent per
year. Now that CFCs are being phased out under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
Layer (Montreal Protocol), the use of CFC substitutes is expected to grow significantly.
The current U.S. greenhouse gas inventory for 1990-94 is summarized in Table ES-1 and Figures ES-1, ES-2, and
ES-3. For 1994, total U.S. emissions were 1,666 MMTCE. To be consistent with the IPCC-recommended
guidelines, this estimate excludes emissions of 23 MMTCE from international transport. Changes in CO₂
emissions from fossil fuel consumption had the greatest impact on U.S. emissions from 1990 to 1994. While these
emissions of CO₂ in 1991 were approximately 1.2 percent lower than 1990 emission levels in the U.S., in 1992
they were about 1.5 percent over 1991 levels, thus returning emissions to slightly over 1990 levels. By 1993 CO₂
emissions from fossil fuel combustion were approximately 2.5 percent greater than 1990, with emissions in 1994
about 4 percent higher than 1990. This trend is largely attributable to changes in total energy consumption
resulting from the economic slowdown in the U.S. during the early 1990s and the subsequent recovery, as can be
clearly seen in Figure ES-2.
Methane, N₂O, and HFCs and PFCs represent a much smaller portion of total emissions than CO₂. In most cases,
emissions of these gases remained relatively constant from 1990 to 1994. However, methane emissions from coal
mining declined significantly in 1993, largely due to decreases in coal production as a result of labor unrest in
1993. As coal production has risen since the end of the strikes, emissions have increased commensurately. Also,
emissions of HFCs and PFCs have fluctuated significantly in the 1990s, initially declining in response to lower CFC
production. The use of these chemicals has begun to increase, however, as replacements for CFCs and other
ozone-depleting compounds being phased out under the terms of the Montreal Protocol and Clean Air Act
1 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:16
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe.ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
ozone-depleting compounds being phased out under the terms of the Montreal Protocol and Clean Air Act
Amendments.
Figure ES-3 illustrates the relative contribution of the primary greenhouse gases to total U.S. emissions in 1994.
Due largely to fossil fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions accounted for the largest share of U.S. emissions on a
carbon equivalent basis - almost 85 percent. These emissions were partially offset by the sequestration that
occurred on forested lands. Methane accounted for 11 percent of total emissions, including contributions from
landfills and agricultural activities, among others.
The other gases contributed less to emissions, with N₂O emissions comprising about 2 percent of total U.S.
emissions, HFCs accounting for just over one percent, PFCs about 0.2 percent, and SF₆ about 0.4 percent. Any
gases covered under the Montreal Protocol are not included because their use is being phased out, and the IPCC
Guidelines (IPCC/OECD/IEA, 1995) recommend excluding gases covered by the Montreal Protocol.
The following sections present the anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions, briefly discuss the
emission pathways, summarize the emission estimates, and explain the relative importance of emissions from
each source category.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
The global carbon cycle is made up of large carbon flows and reservoirs. Hundreds of billions of tons of carbon in
the form of carbon dioxide (CO₂) are absorbed by oceans, trees, soil, and vegetative cover and are emitted to the
atmosphere annually through natural processes. When in equilibrium, carbon flows between the various reservoirs
roughly balance each other. Since the Industrial Revolution, however, atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide have risen more than 25 percent, principally because of the combustion of fossil fuels (IPCC, 1992). While
the combustion of fossil fuels accounts for 99 percent of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide
emissions also result directly from industrial processes. Changes in land use and forestry activities both emit
carbon dioxide (e.g., as a result of forest clearing) and can act as a sink for carbon dioxide (e.g., as a result of
improved forest management activities).
Table ES-2 summarizes U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide for 1994, while the remainder of this section presents
detailed information on the various anthropogenic sources and sinks of carbon dioxide in the United States.
Energy
Approximately 88 percent of U.S. energy is produced through the combustion of fossil fuels. The remaining 12
percent comes from renewable or other energy sources such as hydropower, biomass, and nuclear energy (see
Figure ES-4). As they burn, fossil fuels emit carbon dioxide due to oxidation of the carbon contained in the fuel.
The amount of carbon in fossil fuels varies significantly by fuel type. For example, coal contains the highest
amount of carbon per unit of energy, while petroleum has about 20 percent less carbon than coal, and natural gas
has about 45 percent less.
Fossil Fuel Consumption
In 1994, the United States emitted a total of 1,390 MMTCE of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion. (Bunker
fuels, or fuels used in international transport, accounted for an additional 23 MMTCE.) The energy-related
activities producing these emissions included heating in residential and commercial buildings, the generation of
electricity, steam production for industrial processes, and gasoline consumption in automobiles and other vehicles.
Petroleum products across all sectors of the economy accounted for about 42 percent of total U.S. energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions; coal, 36 percent; and natural gas, 22 percent.
Industrial Sector. The industrial sector accounts for 34 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel
consumption, making it the largest end-use source of carbon dioxide emissions (see Figure ES-5). About
two-thirds of these emissions result from the direct consumption of fossil fuels in order to meet industrial demand
for steam and process heat. The remaining one-third of industrial energy needs are met by electricity for such
uses as motors, electric furnaces and ovens, and lighting.
The industrial sector is also the largest user of nonenergy applications of fossil fuels, which often store carbon.
Fossil fuels used for producing fertilizers, plastics, asphalt, or lubricants can store carbon in products for very long
periods. Asphalt used in road construction, for example, stores carbon indefinitely. Similarly, the fossil fuels used
in the manufacture of materials like plastics also store carbon, releasing this carbon only if the product is
incinerated.
Transportation Sector. The transportation sector is also a major source of carbon dioxide, accounting for just over
30 percent of U.S. emissions. Virtually all of the energy consumed in this sector comes from petroleum-based
products. Nearly two-thirds of the emissions are the result of gasoline consumption in automobiles and other
vehicles, with other uses, including diesel fuel for the trucking industry and jet fuel for aircraft, accounting for the
remainder.
2 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:17
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe.ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
Residential and Commercial Sectors. The residential and commercial sectors account for about 20 and 16
percent, respectively, of carbon dioxide emissions from fuel consumption. Both sectors rely heavily on electricity
for meeting energy needs, with about two-thirds to three-quarters of their emissions attributable to electricity
consumption. End-use applications include lighting, heating, cooling, and operating appliances. The remaining
emissions are largely due to the consumption of natural gas and oil, primarily for meeting heating and cooking
needs.
Electric Utilities. The U.S. relies on electricity to meet a significant portion of its energy requirements. In fact, as the
largest consumers of fossil fuels, electric utilities are collectively the largest producers of U.S. carbon dioxide
emissions (see Figure ES-5). Electric utilities generate electricity for uses such as lighting, heating, electric motors,
and air conditioning. Some of this electricity is generated with the lowest carbon dioxide-emitting energy
technologies, particularly nonfossil options, such as nuclear energy, hydropower, or geothermal energy. However,
electric utilities rely on coal for 55 percent of their total energy requirements and account for about 86 percent of all
coal consumed in the United States.
Fuel Production and Processing
Carbon dioxide is produced via flaring activities at natural gas systems and oil wells. Typically, the methane that is
trapped in a natural gas system or oil well is flared to relieve the pressure building in the system or to dispose of
small quantities of gas that are not commercially marketable. As a result, the carbon contained in the methane
becomes oxidized and forms carbon dioxide. In 1994, the amount of carbon dioxide from the flared gas was just
over 1 MMTCE, or about 0.1 percent of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.
Biomass and Biomass-Based Fuel Consumption
Biomass fuel is used primarily by the industrial sector in the form of fuelwood and wood waste. Biomass-based
fuel use, such as ethanol from corn or woody crops, occurs mainly in the transportation sector. Ethanol and
ethanol blends, such as gasohol, are typically used to fuel public transport vehicles, such as buses or centrally
fueled fleet vehicles.
Biomass, ethanol, and ethanol-blend fuels do release carbon dioxide. However, in the long run, the carbon dioxide
they emit does not increase total atmospheric carbon dioxide because the biomass resources are consumed on a
sustainable basis. For example, fuelwood burned one year but regrown the next only recycles carbon, rather than
creating a net increase in total atmospheric carbon.
Carbon dioxide emissions from biomass consumption in 1994 were approximately 49 MMTCE, with the industrial
sector accounting for 75 percent of the emissions and the residential sector 23 percent, the rest being made up of
commercial and electric utility consumption. Carbon dioxide emissions from ethanol use in the United States have
been increasing in recent years due to a number of factors, including the extension of Federal tax exemptions for
ethanol production, the Clean Air Act Amendments mandating the reduction of mobile source emissions, and the
Energy Policy Act of 1992 which established incentives to increase the use of alternative fuels and
alternative-fueled vehicles. In 1994, total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from ethanol were 1.85 MMTCE.
Industrial Processes
Emissions are often produced as a by-product of various nonenergy-related activities. For example, in the
industrial sector raw materials are chemically transformed from one state to another. This transformation often
releases such greenhouse gases as carbon dioxide. The production processes that emit carbon dioxide include
cement production, lime production, limestone consumption (e.g., in iron and steel production), soda ash
production and use, and carbon dioxide manufacture. Total carbon dioxide emissions from these sources were
approximately 16 MMTCE in 1994, accounting for about 1 percent of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.
Cement Production (9.6 MMTCE)
Carbon dioxide is produced primarily during the production of clinker, an intermediate product from which finished
portland and masonry cement are made. Specifically, carbon dioxide is created when calcium carbonate (CaCO3)
is heated in a cement kiln to form lime and carbon dioxide. This lime combines with other materials to produce
clinker, while the carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere. Since 1990, carbon dioxide emissions from
cement production have increased about 8.4 percent, from 8.9 MMTCE in 1990 to 9.6 MMTCE in 1994.
Lime Production (3.5 MMTCE)
Lime is used in steel making, construction, pulp and paper manufacturing, and water and sewage treatment. It is
manufactured by heating limestone (mostly calcium carbonate) in a kiln, creating calcium oxide (quicklime) and
carbon dioxide, which is normally emitted to the atmosphere. Since 1990, carbon dioxide emissions from lime
production have increased by approximately 7 percent, from 3.3 MMTCE in 1990 to 3.5 MMTCE in 1994.
3 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:17
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe..ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
Limestone Consumption (1.2 MMTCE)
Limestone is a basic raw material used by a wide variety of industries, including the construction, agriculture,
chemical, and metallurgical industries. For example, limestone can be used as a purifier in refining metals, such as
iron. In this case, limestone heated in a blast furnace reacts with impurities in the iron ore and fuels, generating
carbon dioxide as a by-product. It is also used in flue gas desulfurization systems to remove sulfur dioxide from
the exhaust gases. Since 1990, carbon dioxide emissions from limestone consumption have declined by about 10
percent, from 1.38 MMTCE in 1990 to 1.24 MMTCE in 1994.
Soda Ash Production and Consumption (1.1 MMTCE)
Commercial soda ash (sodium carbonate) is used in many consumer products, such as glass, soap and
detergents, paper, textiles, and food. During the manufacturing of these products, natural sources of sodium
carbonate are heated and transformed into a crude soda ash, in which carbon dioxide is generated as a
by-product. In addition, carbon dioxide is released when the soda ash is consumed. Of the two states that produce
natural soda ash, only Wyoming has net emissions of carbon dioxide, because producers in California recover the
carbon dioxide and use it in other stages of production. U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from soda ash production
were approximately 0.4 MMTCE in 1994, while U.S. soda ash consumption generated about 0.7 MMTCE. Since
1990, carbon dioxide emissions from soda ash manufacture and consumption have declined slightly, from 1.13
MMTCE in 1990 to 1.10 MMTCE in 1994.
Carbon Dioxide Manufacture (0.4 MMTCE)
Carbon dioxide is used in many segments of the economy, including food processing, beverage manufacturing,
chemical processing, crude oil products, and a host of industrial and miscellaneous applications. For the most
part, carbon dioxide used in these applications will eventually be released into the atmosphere. Since 1990,
carbon dioxide emissions from carbon dioxide manufacture have increased slightly, from 0.33 MMTCE in 1990 to
0.37 MMTCE in 1994.
Forests and Land Use Change
When humans use and alter the biosphere through changes in land use and forest-management activities, they
alter the natural balance of trace gas emissions and uptake. These activities include clearing an area of forest to
create cropland or pasture, restocking a logged forest, draining a wetland, or allowing a pasture to revert to a
grassland or forest. Forests, which cover about 737 million acres of U.S. land (Powell, et al., 1993), are a
potentially important terrestrial sink for carbon dioxide. Because approximately half the dry weight of wood is
carbon, as trees add mass to trunks, limbs, and roots, carbon is stored in relatively long-lived trees instead of
being released to the atmosphere. Soils and vegetative cover also provide a potential carbon sink.
Carbon fluxes can also be attributed to biomass that is harvested and used in wood products or disposed in
landfills. The potential carbon flux associated with these biomass pools, however, is significantly smaller than the
carbon flux associated with forests. Therefore, the majority of this discussion focuses on the carbon flux
associated with land-use change and forest management activities.
In the United States, improved forest-management practices and the regeneration of previously cleared forest
area have actually resulted in a net uptake (sequestration) of carbon on U.S. lands. This carbon uptake is an
ongoing result of land-use changes in previous decades. For example, because of improved agricultural
productivity and the widespread use of tractors, the rate of clearing forest land for crop cultivation and pasture
slowed greatly in the late 19th century, and by 1920 this practice had all but ceased. As farming expanded in the
Midwest and West, large areas of previously cultivated land in the East were brought out of crop production,
primarily between 1920 and 1950, and were allowed to revert to forest land or were actively reforested. The
regeneration of forest land greatly increases carbon storage in both standing biomass and soils and the impacts of
these land-use changes continue to affect forest carbon fluxes in the East. In addition to land-use changes in the
early part of this century, forest carbon fluxes in the East are affected by a trend toward managed growth on
private land in recent decades, resulting in a near doubling of the biomass density in eastern forests since the
early 1950s. More recently, the 1970s and 1980s saw a resurgence of federally sponsored tree-planting programs
(e.g., the Forestry Incentive Program) and soil conservation programs (e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program),
which have focused on reforesting previously harvested lands, improving timber-management activities,
combating soil erosion, and converting marginal cropland to forests.
The net carbon dioxide flux in 1990, 1991 and 1992 due to these activities is estimated to have been an uptake
(sequestration) of 145 MMTCE per year. This carbon uptake represents an offset of about 10 percent of the
average annual carbon dioxide emissions from energy-related activities during this period. Emission estimates are
not yet available for 1993 and 1994 because the last national forest inventory was completed in 1992.
There are several major sources of uncertainty associated with the estimates of the total net carbon flux from U.S.
forests. These sources are briefly described below:
4 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:18
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe..ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
The forest surveys used to compile these estimates are based on a statistical sampling instead of actual
measurements. The surveys are based on a statistical sample designed to represent a wide variety of
growth conditions present over large territories. The actual values of carbon stored in forests, therefore, are
represented by average values that are subject to sampling and estimation errors.
The impacts of forest management activities on soil carbon are quite uncertain. Forest soils contain over 50
percent of the total U.S. forest carbon. However, because of uncertainties associated with soil carbon flux,
this component is not included in the U.S. estimate at this time.
The current estimate does not include forest land in Alaska and Hawaii or reserved timber land. However,
forests in these states are believed to be in equilibrium, so their inclusion would not significantly affect the
flux estimates presented here.
Forest management activities may also result in fluxes of other greenhouse and photochemically important
gases. Dry soils are an important sink for CH₄, a source of N₂O, both a sink and a source for CO, and
vegetation is a source of several NMHCs (nonmethane hydrocarbons, a subset of NMVOCs). However, the
effects of forestry activities on these gases are highly uncertain, and are therefore not included in the U.S.
inventory at this time.
Estimates from wood products pools and landfills are based on limited data and subject to significant
uncertainties. Research continues on the potential magnitude of these sources.
Methane Emissions
Atmospheric methane (CH₄) is second only to carbon dioxide as an anthropogenic source of greenhouse gas
emissions. Methane's overall contribution to global warming is large because it is 24.5 times more effective at
trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time horizon, when the direct as well as most
indirect effects are considered (IPCC, 1994). Furthermore, methane's concentration in the atmosphere has more
than doubled over the last two centuries. Scientists have concluded that these atmospheric increases are largely
due to increasing emissions from anthropogenic sources, such as landfills, agricultural activities, fossil fuel
combustion, coal mining, the production and processing of natural gas and oil, and wastewater treatment (see
Table ES-3 and Figure ES-6).
Landfills
Landfills are the largest single anthropogenic source of methane emissions in the United States. There are an
estimated 6,000 methane-emitting landfills in the United States, with 1,300 of the largest landfills accounting for
about half of the emissions.
In an environment where the oxygen content is low or nonexistent, organic materials, such as yard waste,
household waste, food waste, and paper, are decomposed by bacteria to produce methane, carbon dioxide, and
stabilized organic materials (materials that cannot be decomposed further). Methane emissions from landfills are
affected by such factors as waste composition, moisture, and landfill size.
Methane emissions from U.S. landfills in 1994 were 68.2 MMTCE, or about 36 percent of total U.S. methane
emissions. Emissions from U.S. municipal solid waste landfills, which received approximately 67 percent of the
total solid waste generated in the United States, accounted for about 90 to 95 percent of total landfill emissions,
while industrial landfills accounted for the remaining 5 to 10 percent. Currently, about 15 percent of the methane
emitted is recovered for use as an energy source.
Agriculture
The agricultural sector accounted for approximately 33 percent of total U.S. methane emissions in 1994, with
enteric fermentation in domestic livestock and manure management together accounting for the majority (see
Figure ES-7). Other agricultural activities contributing directly to methane emissions include rice cultivation and
field burning of agricultural crop wastes. Several other agricultural activities, such as irrigation and tillage practices,
may contribute to methane emissions, but emissions from these sources are uncertain and believed to be small;
therefore, the United States has not included them in the current inventory. Details on the emission pathways
included in the inventory are presented below.
Enteric Fermentation in Domestic Livestock (40.2 MMTCE)
In 1994, enteric fermentation was the source of about 21 percent of total U.S. methane emissions, and about 65
percent of methane emissions from the agricultural sector. During animal digestion, methane is produced through
enteric fermentation, a process in which microbes that reside in animal digestive systems break down the feed
consumed by the animal. Ruminants, which include cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats, have the highest methane
emissions among all animal types because they have a rumen, or large "fore-stomach," in which a significant
amount of methane-producing fermentation occurs. Nonruminant domestic animals, such as pigs and horses,
have much lower methane emissions than ruminants because much less methane-producing fermentation takes
place in their digestive systems. The amount of methane produced and excreted by an individual animal also
depends upon the amount and type of feed it consumes.
5 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:18
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppece.ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
Manure Management (17.0 MMTCE)
The decomposition of organic animal waste in an anaerobic environment produces methane. The most important
factor affecting the amount of methane produced is how the manure is managed, since certain types of storage
and treatment systems promote an oxygen-free environment. In particular, liquid systems (e.g., lagoons, ponds,
tanks, or pits) tend to produce a significant quantity of methane. However, when manure is handled as a solid or
when it is deposited on pastures and rangelands, it tends to decompose aerobically and produce little or no
methane. Higher temperatures and moist climate conditions also promote methane production.
Emissions from manure management were about 9 percent of total U.S. methane emissions in 1994, and about 28
percent of methane emissions from the agricultural sector. Liquid-based manure management systems accounted
for over 80 percent of total emissions from animal wastes.
Rice Cultivation (3.4 MMTCE)
Most of the world's rice, and all of the rice in the United States, is grown on flooded fields. When fields are flooded,
anaerobic conditions in the soils develop, and methane is produced through anaerobic decomposition of soil
organic matter. Methane is released primarily through the rice plants, which act as conduits from the soil to the
atmosphere.
Rice cultivation is a very small source of methane in the United States. In 1994, methane emissions from this
source were less than 2 percent of total U.S. methane emissions, and about 5.6 percent of U.S. methane
emissions from agricultural sources.
Field Burning of Agricultural Wastes (0.8 MMTCE)
Large quantities of agricultural crop wastes are produced from farming systems. Disposal systems for these
wastes include plowing them back into the field; composting, landfilling, or burning them in the field; using them as
a biomass fuel; or selling them in supplemental feed markets. Burning crop residues releases a number of
greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, and oxides of nitrogen.
Crop residue burning is not considered to be a net source of carbon dioxide emissions because the carbon dioxide
released during burning is reabsorbed by crop regrowth during the next growing season. However, burning is a net
source of emissions for the other gases. Because this practice is not common in the United States, it was
responsible for only about 0.4 percent of total U.S. methane emissions in 1994, and 1.3 percent of emissions from
the agricultural sector.
Coal Mining
Coal mining and post-mining activities, such as coal processing, transportation, and consumption, are the third
largest source of methane emissions in the United States. Estimates of methane emissions from coal mining for
1994 were 28.9 MMTCE, which accounted for about 15 percent of total U.S. methane emissions.
Produced millions of years ago during the formation of coal, methane is trapped within coal seams and
surrounding rock strata. When coal is mined, methane is released into the atmosphere. The amount of methane
released from a coal mine depends primarily upon the depth and type of coal, with deeper mines generally
emitting more methane (U.S. EPA, 1993a). Methane from surface mines is emitted directly to the atmosphere as
the rock strata overlying the coal seam are removed.
Methane is hazardous in underground mines because it is explosive at concentrations of 5 to 15 percent in air.
Therefore, all underground mines are required to remove methane by circulating large quantities of air through the
mine and venting this air into the atmosphere. At some mines, more advanced methane-recovery systems may be
used to supplement the ventilation systems and ensure mine safety. The practice of using the recovered methane
as an energy source has been increasing in recent years.
Oil and Natural Gas Production and Processing
Methane is also the major component of natural gas. Any leakage or emission during the production, processing,
transmission, and distribution of natural gas emits methane directly to the atmosphere. Because natural gas is
often found in conjunction with oil, leakage during the production of commercial quantities of gas from oil wells is
also a source of emissions. Emissions vary greatly from facility to facility and are largely a function of operation
and maintenance procedures and equipment condition. Fugitive emissions can occur at all stages of extraction,
processing, and distribution. In 1994, emissions from the U.S. natural gas system were estimated to be 20.3
MMTCE, accounting for approximately 11 percent of total U.S. methane emissions.
Methane is also released as a result of oil production and processing activities, such as crude oil production, crude
oil refining, transportation, and storage, when commercial gas production is not warranted due to the small
quantities present. Emissions from these activities are generally released as a result of system leaks, disruptions,
or routine maintenance. For 1994, methane emissions from oil production and processing facilities were 1.8
6 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:19
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe.ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
or routine maintenance. For 1994, methane emissions from oil production and processing facilities were 1.8
MMTCE, accounting for about 1 percent of total U.S. methane emissions.
Other Sources
Methane is also produced from several other sources in the United States, including energy-related combustion
activities, wastewater treatment, industrial processes, and changes in land use. The sources included in the U.S.
inventory are fossil fuel combustion and wastewater treatment. In 1994, 6.1 MMTCE of methane were emitted
from fossil fuel combustion, which accounted for about 3.3 percent of total U.S. methane emissions. Approximately
1.1 MMTCE, or less than 1 percent of total U.S. methane emissions, were emitted due to wastewater treatment.
Additional anthropogenic sources of methane in the United States, such as land use changes and ammonia, coke,
iron, and steel production, are not included because little information on methane emissions from these sources is
currently available.
Nitrous Oxide Emissions
Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a chemically and radiatively active greenhouse gas that is produced naturally from a wide
variety of biological sources in soil and water. While actual emissions of nitrous oxide are much smaller than
carbon dioxide emissions, nitrous oxide is approximately 320 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at trapping
heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year time horizon. Over the past two centuries, human activities have raised
atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide by approximately 8 percent. The main anthropogenic activities
producing nitrous oxide are soil management and fertilizer use for agriculture, fossil fuel combustion, adipic acid
production, nitric acid production, and agricultural waste burning. The relative share of each of these activities to
total U.S. nitrous oxide emissions is shown in Figure ES-8, and U.S. nitrous oxide emissions by source category
for 1994 are provided in Table ES-4.
Agricultural Soil Management and Fertilizer Use
The primary sources of anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions in the United States are fertilizer use and soil
management activities. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and organic fertilizers add nitrogen to soils, and thereby
increase emissions of nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide emissions in 1994 due to consumption of synthetic and organic
fertilizers were 18.4 MMTCE, or approximately 45 percent of total U.S. nitrous oxide emissions.
Other agricultural soil management practices, such as irrigation, tillage practices, or the fallowing of land, can also
affect nitrous oxide fluxes to and from the soil. There is much uncertainty about the direction and magnitude of the
effects of these other practices. Only emissions from fertilizer use and field burning of agricultural wastes are
included in the U.S. inventory.
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Nitrous oxide is a product of the reaction that occurs between nitrogen and oxygen during fossil fuel combustion.
Both mobile and stationary sources emit nitrous oxide. Emissions from mobile sources are more significant and
are better understood than those from stationary sources. The amount of nitrous oxide emitted varies, depending
upon fuel, technology type, and pollution control device. Emissions also vary with the size and vintage of the
combustion technology, as well as maintenance and operation practices.
For example, catalytic converters installed to reduce air pollution resulting from motor vehicles have been proven
to promote the formation of nitrous oxide. As catalytic converter-equipped vehicles have increased in the U.S.
motor vehicle fleet, emissions of nitrous oxide from this source have also increased (EIA, 1994d). Mobile
emissions totaled 9.3 MMTCE in 1994 (23 percent of total nitrous oxide emissions), with road transport accounting
for approximately 95 percent of these nitrous oxide emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions from stationary sources
were 3.2 MMTCE in 1994.
Adipic Acid Production
Nitrous oxide is emitted as a by-product of the production of adipic acid. Ninety percent of all adipic acid produced
in the United States is used to produce nylon 6,6. It is also used to produce some low-temperature lubricants, and
to provide foods with a "tangy" flavor. In 1994, U.S. adipic acid production generated 5.4 MMTCE of nitrous oxide,
or 13 percent of total U.S. nitrous oxide emissions.
Nitric Acid Production
Production of nitric acid is another industrial source of nitrous oxide emissions. Nitric acid is a raw material used
primarily to make synthetic commercial fertilizer, and is also a major component in the production of adipic acid
and explosives. Virtually all of the nitric acid that is manufactured commercially in the United States is obtained by
the oxidation of ammonia. During this process, nitrous oxide is formed and emitted to the atmosphere. Nitrous
oxide emissions from this source were about 3.8 MMTCE in 1994, accounting for about 9 percent of total U.S.
7 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:20
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe..ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
nitrous oxide emissions.
Other Sources of Nitrous Oxide
Other activities that emit nitrous oxide include the burning of agricultural crop residues and changes in land use.
Emissions from agricultural crop residue burning are extremely small relative to overall U.S. nitrous oxide
emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions in 1994 from this source were approximately 0.4 MMTCE, or about 1 percent
of total U.S. nitrous oxide emissions. Forestry activities may also result in fluxes of nitrous oxide, since dry soils
are a source of nitrous oxide emissions. However, the effects of forestry activities on fluxes of these gases are
highly uncertain; therefore, they are not included in the inventory at this time. Similarly, the U.S. inventory does not
account for several land-use changes because of uncertainties in their effects on trace gas fluxes, as well as
poorly quantified land-use change statistics. These land-use changes include loss and reclamation of freshwater
wetland areas, conversion of grasslands to pasture and cropland, and conversion of managed lands to
grasslands.
HFC, PFC, and SF₆ Emissions
Emissions of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) and perfluorocarbon (PFC) chemicals occur for three reasons. First, these
chemicals were introduced as alternatives to the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) under phaseout by the
Montreal Protocol and Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Second, some of the HFCs and PFCs are emitted as
by-products of industrial reactions. Third, some manufacturing procedures employ these chemicals intentionally.
As substitutes for ODSs, HFCs and PFCs do not directly harm the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful
greenhouse gases. In many cases, HFCs and PFCs absorb much more radiation than equivalent amounts of
carbon dioxide. For this reason, their emissions are addressed by the Framework Convention on Climate Change
(FCCC). An example of an ODS substitute with a high global warming potential (GWP) is HFC-134a, with a GWP
of 1,300 over a 100 year time horizon. Emissions of HFC-134a reached 3.7 MMTCE in 1994. Other HFCs included
in the Inventory are HFC-125, HFC-152a, and HFC-227; their emissions are listed in Table ES-5. From 1990 to
1994, the use of CFC substitutes has grown primarily due to HFC-134a use in automobile air conditioners.
Emissions of HFCs and PFCs as ODS substitutes are expected to rise.
Emissions of HFCs and PFCs also occur as by-products of industrial reactions. HFC-23 is produced and emitted
as a by-product of HCFC-22 production; 1994 HFC-23 emissions were estimated to be 13.8 MMTCE. The PFCs,
CF₄ and C₂F₆, were emitted as by-products of aluminum smelting; 1994 CF₄ and C₂F₆ emissions reached 3.4
MMTCE and 0.7 MMTCE, respectively.
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) use occurs primarily in electrical transmission and distribution systems where it serves
as a dielectric and insulator in circuit breakers, gas-insulated substations, and related equipment. Emissions occur
from this use due to older, leaky equipment, improper maintenance, or intentional venting of the gas. The metals
industries also employ SF₆ in degassing and magnesium protection. For this latter use, SF₆ protects molten metal
from catastrophic oxidation, a process which emits most or all of the chemical. Overall emissions will likely grow if
the need for magnesium in alloys increases as expected. In 1994, emissions of SF₆ reached 7.0 MMTCE.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other halocarbons, which were emitted into the atmosphere for the first time this
century, have been shown to deplete stratospheric ozone, and thus are typically referred to as ozone-depleting
substances, or ODSs. Emission estimates for several ODSs are provided in Box ES-2.
The growing semiconductor industry emits such greenhouse gases as CF₄, C₂F₆, NF₃, SF₆, C₃F₈, and HFC-23
due to use in plasma etching and chemical cleaning applications. Emissions of these gases in the semiconductor
industry are expected to grow.
Criteria Pollutant Emissions
Carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOX), nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and sulfur
dioxide (SO₂) are commonly referred to in the United States as "criteria pollutants". 1 Carbon monoxide is created
when carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely; oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO₂, are created from
lightning, biomass fires, fossil-fuel combustion, and in the stratosphere from nitrous oxide (N₂O); NMVOCs include
compounds such as propane, butane, and ethane, and are emitted primarily from transportation and industrial
processes, as well as biomass burning, and nonindustrial consumption of organic solvents (U.S. EPA, 1990b);
SO2 can result from the combustion of fossil fuels, industrial processing (particularly in the metals industry), waste
incineration, and biomass burning (U.S. EPA, 1993b).
Because of their contribution to the formation of urban smog, criteria pollutants are regulated under the 1970
Clean Air Act and successive amendments. These gases also have an impact on global climate, although their
impact is limited because their radiative effects are indirect (i.e., they do not directly act as greenhouse gases, but
react with other chemical compounds in the atmosphere). It should be noted, however, that SO₂ emitted into the
8 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:20
Human Activities Which Affect Global Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoe..ng/sub1/humans.sub/summary.htm
atmosphere affects the Earth's radiative budget negatively; therefore, it is discussed separately from the other
criteria pollutants (see Box ES-3). The most important of the indirect effects of the criteria pollutants - CO, NOX
and NMVOCs - is their role as precursors of tropospheric ozone. In this role, they contribute to ozone formation
and alter the atmospheric lifetimes of other greenhouse gases. For example, CO interacts with the hydroxyl radical
(OH) - the major atmospheric sink for CH₄⁻ to form CO₂. Therefore, increased atmospheric concentrations of CO
limit the number of OH compounds available to destroy CH₄, thus increasing its atmospheric lifetime.
These criteria pollutants are generated through a variety of anthropogenic activities, including fossil fuel
combustion, solid waste incineration, oil and gas production and processing, industrial processes and solvent use,
and agricultural crop waste burning. Table ES-6 summarizes U.S. emissions from these sources for 1994. The
United States has annually published estimates of criteria pollutants since 1970. Table ES-6 clearly shows that
fuel consumption accounted for the majority of emissions of these gases. In fact, motor vehicles that burn fossil
fuels comprise the single largest source of CO emissions in the United States, contributing nearly 90 percent of all
U.S. CO emissions in 1994. Motor vehicles also emit about half of total U.S. NOX and NMVOC emissions.
Industrial processes, such as the manufacture of chemical and allied products, metals processing, and industrial
uses of solvents, are also major sources of CO, NOX and NMVOCs.
9 of 9
05/06/97 14:52:21
GIF image 565x594 pixels
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoee1/globalwarming/sub5/estable.gif
Recent Trends in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990-1994
Gas/Source
Emissions
Emissions
(Full Molecular Weight)
(Direct and Indirect Effects:
Carbon-Equivalent)
(Million Metric Tonnes)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)
4,899
4,839
4,914
5,020
5,098
1,336
1,320
1.340
1,369
1,390
Other
62
61
62
64
63
17
17
17
18
17
Total
4,961
4,901
4,976
5,084
5,161
1,353
1,336
1,357
1,387
1,408
Forests (sink)
(458)
(458)
(458)
NA
NA
(125)
(125)
(125)
NA
NA
Net Total
4,503
4,443
4,518
NA
NA
1,228
1211
1,232
NA
NA
Methane (CH₄)
Landfills
9.9
10.1
9.9
10.0
102
66
67
66
67
68
Agriculture
8.4
85
88
88
92
56
57
59
59
61
Coal Mining
4.4
43
4.1
3.7
43
29
28
27
24
29
Oil and Gas Systems
32
33
3.3
32
3.3
22
22
22
22
22
Other
0.9
10
10
0.9
0.9
6
7
7
6
6
Total
27.1
27.3
272
26.7
28.0
181
182
182
179
188
Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)
Agriculture
02
02
02
02
02
16
17
17
17
19
Fassil Fuel Consumption
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
12
12
12
12
12
Industrial Processes
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
8
9
8
9
9
Total
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
05
37
37
37
38
41
HFCs and PFCs
=
=
=
=
=
18.8
19.3
21.1
19.8
235
SF6
+
+
+
+
+
6.4
65
67
68
70
Photochemically Important
Gases
NO₂
20.6
20.4
20.6
21.0
212
-
-
-
-
-
NMVOC
18.7
18.3
182
182
18.6
-
-
-
-
-
CO
83.4
82.7
816
813
83.1
-
-
-
-
-
U.S. Emissions
1.595
1.582
1.604
1.630
1.666
Net, Including Sinks
1.470
1.457
1.479
NA
NA
= As this category contains multiple gases. an aggregate full molecular weight sum is not calculated
+
Total of this gas does not exceed 001 million metric tonnes.
NA = notavailable
Hote: Totals may not equal the sum of the individual source categories due to independent rounding
1 of 1
05/06/97 15:04:51
GIF image 366x360 pixels
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoee1/globalwarming/sub5/es1.gif
Figure ES-1
Total U.S. Emissions by Source: 1994 (MMTCE)
1,800
1,666
1,461
1,500
1,200
MMT CC
900
600
300
56
80
69
0
Energy
Industry
Agriculture
Wastes
Total
Source
1 of 1
05/06/97 15:05:49
GIF image 538x342 pixels
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoee1/globalwarming/sub5/es2.gif
Figure ES-2
Recent Trends in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMTCE)
1,680
1,800
1,660
1,640
1,600
1,620
1,400
1,600
1,580
1,200
1,560
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1,000
800
SF₆
600
ALL FHCS&PFCS
400
N₂O
200
CH₄
CO2
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Sinks are not included in these graphs.
1 of 1
05/06/97 15:07:10
GIF image 371x416 pixels
http://www.epa.gov/docs/oppeoee1/globalwarming/sub5/es3.gif
Figure ES-3
Total U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions by Gas: 1994 (MMTCE)
1,800
1,646
1408*
1,500
1,200
MMTCC
900
600
188
300
41
20
0
CO2
CH4
N₂O
HFC/PFC/
Net
SF4
Emissions
Gas Types
*Sinks are not included here.
1 of 1
05/06/97 15:08:05