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FOIA Number: 2012-0769-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff. Collection/Record Group: Clinton Presidential Records Subgroup/Office of Origin: Council on Environmental Quality Series/Staff Member: Kathleen (Katie) McGinty Subseries: OA/ID Number: 2891 FolderID: Folder Title: News Clips [2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: S 61 5 11 1 *12 WATER: DUBLIN CONFERENCE WARNS OF IMPENDING CRISIS More than 500 experts from 113 countries attended the International Conference on Water and the Environment in Dublin, Ireland last week, calling for "new measures to help solve the emerging crisis in global freshwater resources" (GREENWIRE 1/31 #7). In response to a request from the Preparatory Committee for June's UNCED conference in Rio, the participants issued the "Dublin Statement," which called for "concerted action to reverse the present trends of overconsumption, pollution and rising threats from drought and floods" (ICWE release, 1/31). National Audubon Society's Steve Parcells: "The experts have confirmed that long-term water security and human welfare depends on protecting aquatic ecosystems" (Audubon release, 2/3). FOR THOSE WHO COULDN'T MAKE DUBLIN: Some 200 scientists from 50 countries met in Fortaleza, Brazil, for the First International Conference on the Impact of Climactic Variations THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL MONDAY, JUNE 8, 1992 A5 To Protect Bush, U.N. Will Limit Access to Talks During treaty talks in April and May, He declined to give details of the letter. rich nations are discussing how to ex- the United States succeeded in remov- In addition, William K. Reilly, ad- ert even more control over the less ing from the treaty any targets or ministrator of the Environmental Pro- favored nations," read a statement timetables for the reduction of gases. tection Agency, said here over the adopted by the assembly. "In doing so, By JAMES BROOKE ganizers, said, "We are here to show "I don't think people give the U.S. The United States has said that it op- weekend that the United States will they continue to ignore our unique Brazilians that we are ashamed that proper credit on environmental protec- Specialto The New York Times poses timetables, arguing that they move to block the German initiative. knowledge and technical skill which our country is acting like a ball and tion," he said. could be costly and could hurt econom- have been perfected over millennia in RIO DE JANEIRO, June 7 - Fear- chain at the Earth Summit." Hoping to ease American "isolation" ic activity. A Different U.S. View our special relationship with the eco- ing demonstrations against President The anti-Bush mood in Rio was at the Earth Summit, Laurens Jan Last week, three European countries Senator Albert Gore, a Tennessee systems which we inhabit." Bush, the United Nations has drawn up summed up Friday by a front-page Brinkhorst, a spokesman for the Euro- - Austria, Switzerland and the Nether- Democrat who is leading a Congres- But the relationship of one Brazilian plans to close the Earth Summit con- headline in an English language news- pean Community, cautioned Saturday lands - started an initiative to commit sional delegation here, said today, "I Indian to his environment caused envi- ference center to representatives of paper here: "U.S. Singled Out as Eco at a press conference: "We don't want signers to stabilize emissions immedi- find it incomprehensible that we would ronmentalists to wince today. private environmental groups and to Bad Guy." a slugging match of everybody against ately. In a separate move, Germany object to other countries declaring that Mário Juruna, a 49-year-old member sharply reduce credentials for official Some of the Americans here say the the United States." and other European nations are work- they want to meet targets and timeta- of the Xavante ethnic group, displayed delegations, United Nations officials Bush-bashing is not justified. There were new reports today that ing to gain support for the rapid adop- bles." for sale at the Global Forum, an envi- said today. the United States would continue its a Starting Thursday, the day before Leftist Ties Seen tion of a treaty protocol to impose More dissatisfaction with the Earth ronmental fair here, the skin of a spot- tough approach to a second treaty to be targets and timetables. Summit came today from a group ted jaguar, an endangered species. President Bush and as many as 110 Senator Larry Pressler, Republican signed here, one to reduce emissions of Fighting back, the United States sent called Earth Parliament, a congress "When Indians are free, we are go- heads of state and government are to of South Dakota, complained today that carbon dioxide, methane and other gas- a "threatening" letter to the Austrian representing 220 groups from around ing to sell snakes, caymans, and jag- meet here, a new credential system the Earth Summit reminded him of "a es believed capable of warming the Government in Vienna last week, ac- the globe. uars," Mr. Juruna, said to the dismay will-bar virtually all private sector meeting of the international left." earth's temperature. environmentalists from the center and cording to one Austrian delegate here. "At this moment governments of the of assembled naturalists. will limit official missions to four dele- gates from each country, a United Na- tions official who attended an emergen- cy security meeting on Friday said. The official said he expected that press credentials would also be re- strieted. United Nations credentials have. been issued to about 1,500 envi- ronmentalists and to about 5,000 jour- nalists. 150 Protest U.S. Policy Today, about 150 Americans marched down Copacabana Beach in the first public protest here against the Bush Administration's environmental policies. "George Bush, you are embarrass- ing us," read one banner raised by American environmentalists protest- ing the President's announced refusal to sign a treaty to protect plants and animals. Chip Barber, one of the protest or- THE BOSTON GLOBE MONDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 1992 3 Nation Fear expressed of runaway greenhouse effect pressed fear among a growing number of cli- controversy over the exact impact of many "It would be arrogant nonsense to say By David Chandler GLOBE STAFF mate scientists," said Jeremy Leggett, direc- factors involved in the greenhouse effect, that we could predict the transient effects, tor of the science, atmosphere and energy 'If these climate models "almost all the bouncing around from all the or compensate for them," he said. CHICAGO - Almost half of the climate program of Greenpeace International, "that prove - like all the scientific uncertainties that has taken place scientists from around the world surveyed in global warming could lead not just to severe has led to conclusions Most scientists agree that drastic reduc- in the last 20 years a new poll say the greenhouse effect, caused problems but complete ecological collapse." forecasts of ozone that have largely remained" within the same tion of greenhouse gas emissions - primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, could reach a Leggett said most climate models al- depletion - to be range: that a global warming of about 3 to 9 by reducing the burning of fossil fuels and point of no return, after which global warm- ready predict global warming at a level that degrees is likely sometime during the next destruction of forests - could significantly ing would continue to increase no matter could produce significant damage to agricul- significant century - a range he characterized as being reduce and delay the warming effect. But what measures were later taken to combat ture and ecosystems. "If these climate mod- "from mild to catastrophic." the scientists polled by Greenpeace warned underestimates, we are that without such reductions the world could it. els prove - like all the forecasts of ozone de- But Schneider strongly disagreed with a A leading climatologist said, meanwhile, pletion - to be significant underestimates, in potentially terminal reach a point at which the warming might suggestion by the National Research Coun- that efforts to adapt to warmer global tem- we are in potentially terminal trouble," he trouble.' cil's Adaptation Panel that agriculture might become unstoppable. peratures could be thwarted by the unpre- said. be able to adapt to such a change and that The reason for that concern is that there JEREMY LEGGETT dictable and chaotic nature of the changes, The survey asked for predictions based productivity could be maintained. That con- may be a variety of natural "feedback" ef- making it almost impossible to predict how a Grcenpeace International on the assumption that no significant at- clusion, he said, was based on the assump- fects that are not yet understood and which, given area might be affected. tempts would be made to cut back on emis- tion that the temperature change would for the most part, have not been included in Thirteen percent of the climate scientists sions of carbon dioxide and other green- come as a smooth, predictable increase. computer models. For example, the deple- polled by the environmentalist group Green- house gases. International negotiations search in Boulder, Colo., warned of the un- In fact, he said, it is more likely that "the tion of the ozone layer - a separate and un- peace said that an unstoppable "runaway" about proposed policies to attempt to reduce predictability of the exact consequences of more rapidly we force climate to change related problem - could increase the green- greenhouse effect is likely, and another 32 such emissions will resume in New York on greenhouse warming in a lecture here at the the more it is 'transient,' and the more un- house effect by damaging plankton in the percent said it is possible. Forty-seven Feb 18. annual meeting of the American Association predictable it would be." And in turn, he world's oceans and thus reducing their abili- percent said it is unlikely. Stephen Schneider, a climatologist with for the Advancement of Science. said, "the harder it is to predict, the harder ty to remove carbon dioxide, the principal "This result reveals an as-yet poorly ex- the National Center for Atmospheric Re- Schneider said that despite continuing it is to adapt." greenhouse gas, from the air. PHOTOCOPY PRESERVATION BUSH WOULD OUST RIO MEMO'S LEAKER Calls Disclosure of Advice on Ecology Treaty 'Insidious' NGT By ANDREW ROSENTHAL Special to The New York Times 6-8-92 WASHINGTON, June 7 - President Bush said today that he would like to dismiss the official who made public a confidential memo suggesting revi- sions that might reverse the American position on an international treaty to protect plants and animals. "Help me find him," the President saidwat a news conference at Camp David, Md.: He'd be gainfully unem- ployed." Mr. Bush and his aides were furious at the disclosure by an unidentified official last week of a confidential memorandum from William K. Reilly, the Administrator of the Environmen- tal Protection Agency, who said the United States should agree to what he called "minor modifications" of the treaty being considered at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro to alleviate international criticism of Washington's refusal to sign the document. Hours after Mr. Reilly proposed the changes, the White House chief of staff, Samuel K. Skinner, and the President's domestic policy coordinator, Clayton Yeutter, rejected the idea. Mr. Bush spoke at a news conference at Camp David, the Presidential re- treat In the Catoctin Mountains, where he spent the weekend with Prime Min- ister John Major of Britain. Although Britain and Japan indicated on Friday that they would sign the agreement, known as the bio-diversity treaty, Mr. Major today avoided criticizing Mr. Bush for refusing to go along. Britain's Problems 'Different' "We all have different problems with the bio-diversity convention, on the lev- els of technology transfer, on the pro- tection of intellectual property," Mr. Major said, adding that Britain's prob- lems were "different than those of the United States." Mr. Bush said Mr. Reilly had been doing his job when he proposed the changes in a confidential memo. But referring to an article published Fri- day in The New York Times, Mr. Bush said, "For someone, who may or not have been opposed to the document, to the treaty, or any changes, to leak it, it's insidious." Although Mr. Bush acknowledged that there was no issue of national security at stake, he added: "I'd like to find the leaker, and I'd like to see the leaker filed - fired. Filed would be all right: No, but the reason is, it's very difficult to conduct government If somebody, in his or her infinite wis- dom, can shape the wisdom by leaking documents." Mr.Bush also said the political, mili- tary and ethnic upheavals sweeping Eastern Europe after the collapse of Communism were "growing pains." "The new world order is not facing one common objective: an aggressive international Communism," Mr. Bush said. 'Nobody said that the emergence of freedom would be easy," he said, add- ing that of the countries now in the grip of political and ethnic unrest, "I don't know that any one of them wants to now turn its back on democracy." STATEMENT OF LIZ BARRATT-BROWN ATTORNEY, NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL MEMBER OF CAPE ' 92 The high hopes for the climate negotiations were dashed last week by the U.S. refusal to agree to an international commitment to stem carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. On last day of negotiations, the U.S. let one shoe fall -- commiting to a package of modest actions at home but failing to join literally all other industrialized nations in their commitment to stabilize CO2 by the year 2000. Like the ozone layer debate, the skeptics in the Administration have argued too little is known to act and action is too costly. Many of you will remember then Secretary of Energy Donald Hodel's "hats and sunglasses" policy. The skeptics may have won. We will have an ozone hole over the U.S. this summer while cheaper CFC substitutes flood the marketplace. Let's not make the same mistake with climate where energy efficiency measures are expected to make the U.S. more not less competitive with Europe and Japan. Let's not loose our forests for short-term profits. Let's not create a waste trade rather than reduce pollution at its source. We have a major opportunity during Prepcom IV to reverse destructive policies. Yet the Bush Administration has played defense, engaging in "damage control" in order to preserve business as usual. The U.S. position entering Prepcom can be summarized as follows: NO TARGETS, NOT TIMETABLES, NO NEW MONEY, NO NEW INSTITUTIONS (E.G. NO CHANGE). The U.S. has failed to protect old growth forests while calling on developing countries to protect their forests. The U.S. has undermined the Endangered Species Act while talking piously about protection of biodiversity. The U.S. has refused to ban a trade in hazardous waste and to join in fashioning a "Code of Conduct" for potentially hazardous biotechnology. The American people are calling for a change. A recent Roper poll showed overwhelming support for increased taxes -- on the order of $200 per year -- to pay for additional environmental protection. 50,000 people gathered to watch a live teleconference from New York on the Prepcom and write letters to the Administration. Congress is building support for resolutions aimed at more sustainable practices at home and U.S. leadership at the Earth Summit. The message is: Sustainable development is not a term for developing countries alone. Every year the U.S. subsidizes billions in unsustainable practices. On public lands alone, the U.S. has subsidized: ** $5 billion for mining in last 10 years ** $600 million per year for deforestation of our national forests, mostly for road building ** $2.2 billion for western water use, mostly for agriculture and cattle ranching ** Grazing fees that pay only 1/3 of the costs of administering the program, 1/4 the costs of the commercial price for grazing. CAPE '92 and the citizens of the U.S. are asking the U.S. negotiators to craft a different future and not to hold Prepcom hostage to business as usual. We don't have much time. March is critical. The time is now for change. KY 7 JOINT STATEMENT OF THE GROUP OF 77 AND CHINA AT THE FOURTH UNCED PREPCOM, 2 MARCH 1992, NEW YORK (Ambassador Jamsheed K.A. Marker, Chairman of the Group of 77) Mr. Chairman: Permit me to express on behalf of the Group of 77 and China our serious desire to negotiate constructively towards a successful conclusion for the objectives of this process in time for the Rio Conference. Our collective task would be considerably facilitated, Mr. Chairman, if we continue our work on the best available basis, that our mandate is contained within the agreed parameters of UNGA resolution 44/228. An agreement to continue our work on this basis constitutes the only modality for overcoming the time constraint before us in this last and vital session. We should now concentrate on elaborating measures and strategies flowing from the elements of resolution 44/228. There is agreement that development and the eradication of poverty constitute prerequisites for collective action on the environment and cannot be considered in isolation from it. There is no distinction Asl between the local and global environment. Mr. Chairman, it has been agreed in resolution 44/228 that the consumption patterns and the wastes consequently generated by the developed countries are primarily responsible for the situation in which we find ourselves, and that the developed countries have the main responsibility of combating such pollution. The developed countries should therefore elaborate strategies and measures to reverse this situation. This global compact on the environment and development towards which we are working in these negotiations requires an examination of the international economic environment, with a view to ensuring a more integrated approach to environment and development problems in relevant international forums without introducing new forms of conditionality X The developed countries must also make meaningful commitments on the finances, technology and the endogenous capacity-building required by the developing countries to join in redressing this situation for which they are not responsible. Mr. Chairman, the Group of 77 will match statement with statement, process with process, and commitment with commitment within the context of our respective responsibilities. We, however, cannot be expected to match commitment with either statement or process. Mr. Chairman, the Group of 77 and China will not be found wanting in these negotiations. We would like to reiterate the commitment of all our countries to provide a better environment for our citizens, a commitment which we are all putting into action within the constraints of our limited resources. NYT 3/2/92 Balancing Industry With the Ecology By PAUL LEWIS stabilize the climate by reducing emis- as an "earth increment" to the planned Special to The New York Times sions of gases implicated in global replenishment next year of the Inter- UNITED NATIONS, March 1 - A warming and to protect threatened national Development Agency at the proposal for giving poor countries bil- plant and animal species. World Bank, which provides money lions of dollars to help development In addition, the Rio conference is virtually interest-free to the poorest without damage to the environment expected to adopt a general statement countries. will be made on Monday at the opening of ecological principles called the This money would be earmarked for of a major conference here. Earth Charter. environmental projects. Major aid-giv- Industrialized countries would pro- As their price for accepting these ing countries are discussing replenish- vide such "earth increments" through goals, developing countries are de- ing the development agency with some existing aid-giving institutions. manding additional financing from the $17.5 billion over three years, starting The conference was called to pre- industrialized world as well as free in July 1993, when its current fund will pare for the world environmental sum- access to advanced technology that be exhausted. mit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in June: would help them industrialize without In addition, Mr. Strong said, he will the United Nations Conference on En- ecological damage. call for rich countries to give more vironment and Development. Unrealistic, Official Says money to a new branch of the World The aid proposal, to be made by Maurice F. Strong, the Canadian who is Mr. Strong said that asking for an- Bank, the Global Environmental Facil- Secretary General of the Rio meeting, other $70 billion a year in aid was ity, increasing the size of that fund to $5 unrealistic in today's economy. billion or $6 billion, from $1.5 billion. highlights the major problem confront- But he said his consultations with The World Bank uses this fund to ing the preparatory meeting: how to pay the huge cost of the environmental governments suggested that develop- help pay for projects it thinks will benefit all countries. Its first loan went cleanup that the Rio session is expect- ing countries would be satisfied if the ed to endorse. industrialized nations offered "an ini- to Poland earlier this year to preserve tial commitment" to provide "$5 bil- an unspoiled forest. The Price: $125 Billion a Year lion to $10 billion a year in extra aid. First No, Then Yes From U.S. In an interview, Mr. Strong said the He said this money should be made Industrialized countries argue that developing countries would need about available through several sources rath- the Global Environmental Facility con- $125 billion a year in aid to pay for the er than from the single new Green stitutes the "new and additional re- new environmental programs, or $70 Fund under third-world control that sources" the developing world is ask- billion more than all the financial as- China and several developing countries ing for because the money they have sistance they now receive. favor. put into it does not come from their These new programs, intended to In his address Monday, Mr. Strong regular aid budgets. make economic development environ- will suggest that industrialized coun- After first refusing to contribute, the mentally sustainable, include steps to tries agree to add $1 billion or $2 billion Bush Administration changed position last week and said it would provide $50 million to the global fund and $25 mil- lion to individual developing countries to help pay for environmental projects. In mid-April, immediately after the preparatory conference, former Prime Minister Noburu Takeshita of Japan will be the host of a high-level meeting in Tokyo to consider additional ways of financing the Rio conference's goals, including possible global taxes on ener- gy and pollution. Mr. Strong said he had asked Japan to set an example by committing itself to provide developing countries with substantial additional aid for environ- mental measures. Japanese newspa- pers have reported that the Govern- ment is considering a commitment similar to the $12 billion it gave toward the cost of the Persian Gulf war. The Rio Earth Summit, as it has been termed, comes exactly 20 years after the first United Nations Environ- ment Conference, held in Stockholm in 1972, at which Mr. Strong also presided. That meeting established environ- mental protection as an aim of govern- ment policy and led to the creation of environmental ministries in most de- veloped countries. USA Today 2-18-92 U.S. stance may derail global warming treaty By Linda Kanamine The administration is at "This enables nations to fo- left the international negotia- USA TODAY odds with, most countries on cus on those gases which they tions mired," she says. "Urgent stabilizing carbon dioxide can control more efficiently," action is needed if we're to The Bush administration's emissions at 1990 levels. says Michael Deland of the avoid sinking into another glob- desire to go its own way is like- Instead, President Bush fa- president's Council on Environ- al environmental crisis." ly to ruin chances for a world- vors giving countries another mental Quality. The USA produces 20% of wide global-warming treaty be- year to devise independent Fiona Weir of Friends of the all greenhouse gases. fore a June summit in Brazil. strategies on heat-trapping gas- Earth International in London Treaty talks resume today at es such as carbon dioxide, doesn't agree. Environmental impact, 7A the United Nations. methane and nitrous oxide. "The American position has Effect on the USA, 8B USA TODAY TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 1992 7A OPINION USA BRAMBLE: That could sink INTERVIEW the agreement among all the nations. What is Earth "Shortsighted approach' Q: Is the USA alone on the Summit '92? The USA is committed to stantial importance in the emissions issue? a comprehensive approach equation," he says. "We Global warming BRAMBLE: We stand virtu- Purpose: A United Nations-sponsored meeting to develop to the global warming prob- think that is a very short- ally alone on the climate issue. a global plan for economic development and lem that includes all green- sighted approach." But more important is that we environmental protection of the Earth. house gases and their Deland explains that the need to be leading and shaping When: June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. sources, not just carbon di- USA's proposal is to have in- a key to summit these agreements. Because if Key goals: oxide emissions, says Mi- dividual nations come up we don't, they're not likely to Set targets, timetable to cut emissions of greenhouse chael Deland, chairman of with comprehensive action come out to our advantage. gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and CFCs, the president's Council on plans that would address blamed for global warming. Environmental Quality. the issue of global warming Q: What do you think the Revitalize economies of developing communities. The environmental ex- from each nation's perspec- USA should do? Environmentalists say the president's refusal Ensure availability of food, water and energy supplies, pert says the carbon dioxide tive. Such a "holistic" ap- LASHOF: We've shown that particularly to developing countries. problem is peculiar to the proach would set up a to join other countries in setting carbon an effective program of effi- Eradicate poverty. industrialized nations and Prevent destruction of renewable resources. worldwide trading mecha- dioxide emission limits could sink agreement. ciency and renewable-energy does not take into account Protect and preserve diverse selection of plant, nism in gases. investment could cut carbon animal species. the developing world. "You could have one na- dioxide emissions 25% by the "We have been unwilling tion make reductions in Q: Why are the negotiations to reverse its current position year 2005 and 70% over 40 to subscribe to the political- methane gas and another resuming today on global on global warming and sign a years at a net profit to the econ- What are the climate ly popular program of time- nation make reductions in warming S0 important? treaty that effectively deals omy, creating jobs and helping tables and targets" for in- C02 and do SO in a cost-ef- LASHOF: We see the negoti- with the problem. move us to technologies need- negotiations? dustrialized countries to fective manner that makes Q: But President Bush has ed for the 21st century. limit emissions of green- both environmental and ations as the keystone to the en- Purpose: Fifth and final pre-summit gathering for house gases "that focus only economic sense," he says. tire Earth Summit. A deadlock refused to agree 10 specific Q: The administration posi- international negotiations to limit threat of global warming. on C02 when there are sev- on the climate negotiations has controls on greenhouse emis- tion is that focusing on CO2 sions responsible for global alone isn't the way to go. When: Feb. 18-28 in New York City. eral others that are of sub- - Sharon Shahid the potential to undermine pro- gress on the other issues. So it's warming. If the USA doesn't USA TODAY LASHOF: We need to deal essential for the United States go along, what will happen? with all the different green- sponsibility for limiting their Q: What will it cost the indi- prices. Citizens are beginning gard to these negotiations. house gases. But in the past, the development strategies to help vidual if you do get your way? to recognize not only are op- administration has used that as on the emissions problem. LASHOF: For example, you tions available, but we can no Q: Excluding the U.N. nego- a shell game to hide the fact it's may pay $500 more to buy a longer run from those options. tiations, what's the one thing not doing anything to deal with Q: What is the cost if you you'd like to see the govern- don't get your way? new car, but it will get 45 miles Q: How much of a differ- ment do for the environment? the most important gas, carbon per gallon instead of 25 mpg. dioxide. LASHOF: Undermining the ence can average people So you save about $200 a year LASHOF: Increase automo- make? sustainability of natural ecosys- Q: Where do developing na- in gasoline. bile fuel-efficiency standards. tems. Putting our food security BRAMBLE: Lots. There is a tions fit in the debate? at risk over the longer run. Q: What are the signs that U.S. Citizens Network (415-956- BRAMBLE: Improve effi- By H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY EDWARDS: The major issue Devastating coastal areas from progress is being made on the 6162). It now has over 480 orga- ciency in how we spend our en- Edwards Bramble Lashof they're raising is that they are sea level rise from global environment overall? nizations around the country. ergy because that would be a unfairly taking the heat on warming. Producing biological EDWARDS: Citizens are be- There are now hundreds of or- real national security boost. Don Edwards of the Panos Institute, Barbara Bramble of the global warming. While they diversity both from global ginning to ask questions about ganizations associated with this EDWARDS: Take Detroit off National Wildlife Federation, and Dan Lashof of the Natural Re- produce a quarter of the warming and forest destruc- the impact of policies. Funda- drive to try to put the United welfare. sources Defense Council were interviewed by members of USA world's CO2 emissions, they tion. Undermining long-term mentally, the subsidy we give States somewhere in the mid- TODAY's editorial board and News and Life staffs. are expected to take undue re- economic competitiveness. the auto industry in lower gas dle of civilized society with re- Global warming, 8B 8B TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 1992 USA TODAY THE ENVIRONMENT Negotiations resume today on a global warming treaty - a plan that some say could cost industry billions of dollars. Because of those potential costs, the Bush administration opposes the treaty, citing scientific uncertainty. Effects of global warming Bush, industry cool to calls for Here are some of the problems that scientists say may occur because of global Animals: Polar warming, caused by tough global warming controls bears, walruses chemical emissions and seals could trapping heat near Forests: Minnesota the Earth: By Linda Kanamine lose breeding and sloppy and apparently unwilling to clean est step to slowing global warming is to sta- USA TODAY migrating up its act," says Fran Stivy-Weber of the bilize carbon dioxide at current levels. hemlock forests and grounds as ice U.S. Citizens Network for the United Na- "We can do that with practically no melts. Michigan jack pines, Squabbling over whether, when and tions Conference. change at all," Stivy-Weber says. along with the species how to reduce heat-trapping gases in the The greenhouse effect is an aberration that depend on them, The Union of Concerned Scientists says environment picks up this week amid of the process in which water vapor and may be lost. energy-efficient technologies - such as gloomy predictions of ecosystem disasters. carbon dioxide trap the sun's radiation and better insulation, lights, equipment, appli- Representatives of more than 100 na- warm the Earth, making it liveable. Burn- ances and solar heating - could cut ener- tions today resume negotiations at the ing of coal, oil and gas has greatly boosted Arctic Migratory gy demand by half within 40 years. United Nations. Goal: Combat global levels of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous The group's study says a $2.7 trillion in- circle Drought: USA's birds: warming with an emissions-reduction trea- oxide and other gases, trapping too much vestment in efficient equipment now will breadbasket, Shorebirds that ty that could be signed at June's Earth heat near the ground. save the USA $5 trillion in overall electric- could suffer fly from South Summit in Brazil. But environmentalists Some projections say average tempera- ity costs over 40 years. from more and Central fear the talks will produce only hot air. tures will rise 4 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit "If we don't take the lead, we will be im- frequent America to the The Bush administration, fearing the within 100 years, melting polar ice caps. porting (energy-efficient) technologies for droughts. arctic could find costs of forcing industry controls, refuses Rising seas will flood coastlines and weath- solving these problems," says Dan Lashof their pit stop at to accede to Europe, Japan and most other er patterns will be extreme. of the Natural Resources Defense Council. Coral reefs: Higher Delaware Bay countries favoring a cap of carbon dioxide A new World Wildlife Fund study says lacking food as "This will undermine America's long-run temperatures could emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. the yearly feast the unusually quick pace of warming, and economic competitiveness." cause reefs in the Instead, the administration favors a eastem Pacific and of horseshoe not the actual temperature rise, will have Some already are taking action to re- Caribbean to lose crab eggs will loose agreement in which countries devise grave effects on ecosystems: duce carbon dioxide: vast amounts of have already their own strategies to reduce all "green- Already threatened species - the New England Electric announced it house" gases. Florida panther, marine turtles, polar would reduce carbon dioxide emissions algae, begin hatched because of early warming. "Carbon dioxide is the politically popu- bears, migratory birds - won't be able to bleaching, and die. from its power plants 20% by 2000. lar gas of the moment," says Michael De- adapt to rapid habitat damage. The American Forestry Association is land of the president's Council on Environ- Mangrove swamps, such as Bermu- planting an added 100 million trees, which mental Quality. "Other countries da's, will diminish as rising sea levels filter carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. committed to carbon dioxide reductions in erode peat around tree roots, making And the EPA - along with 143 compa- Erosion: West, East and Gulf a cavalier fashion, without any real idea of them vulnerable to storms. nies, six states and one city - launched how those numbers will be achieved." coasts may see increasing Some things, however, would thrive and the Green Lights project to install energy- beach erosion and flooding Critics say the administration has adopt- spread as temperatures rise in colder efficient lights. ed an industry-coddling stall tactic. climes: pest species and diseases. Source: World Wildlife Fund, USA TODAY research By Bob Laird, USA TODAY "The United States is SO much more Environmentalists say the first and easi- Environmentalists' view, 7A Clinton Presidential Records Digital Records Marker This is not a presidential record. This is used as an administrative marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff. This marker identifies the place of a publication. Publications have not been scanned in their entirety for the purpose of digitization. To see the full publication please search online or visit the Clinton Presidential Library's Research Room. Earth Summit Update No. 7. March 1992 Environmental and Energy Study Institute 122 C Street, N.W., Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 628-1400 Approval of UNCED Resolution Delayed by Industry Lobbying The passage of a resolution on is expected to decide whether or not environmental agreements, pro- U.S. policy toward UNCED by the the climate change language will be grams for a global energy transition, House Foreign Affairs Committee weakened. new programs and institutions for was temporarily derailed February Approval of the resolution by increased energy efficiency in de- 27 by a last-minute lobbying cam- committee would clear the way for veloping countries, agreements to paign by energy industry and early floor action in the House of eliminate land-based sources of electric utility interests. Representatives. Committee marine pollution and consultations After assurances from Republi- sources told Earth Summit Up- on debt reduction and natural re- cans on the committee that they date on February 26 that Fascell source conservation (see page 4 for would offer no opposition, the com- intended to bring the resolution to partial text). mittee had been expected to approve the floor "on the earliest possible However, neither the State De- the Fascell-Torricelli-Yatron reso- date." The resolution, co-spon- partment nor any industry group lution (H. Con. Res. 283) at a markup sored by Fascell and Subcommittee had previously objected to language February 27. But one hour before Chairmen Robert Torricelli (D-N.J.) calling for reform of national ac- the scheduled hearing and markup and Gus Yatron (D-Pa.), was sched- counting systems in industrialized on the resolution, the Global Cli- uled for approval just six days after countries, which has been official mate Coalition, an industry group separate resolutions introduced by U.S. policy since mid-1991. that opposes any U.S. commitment Torricelli and Yatron were combined For more information, contact to control greenhouse gas emissions, under Fascell's aegis. Other provi- House Foreign Affairs Committee, called committee staff to object to sions of the resolution urge that the 2170 Rayburn, Washington, D.C. language in the resolution urging United States support a new mecha- (202-225- 5021). the President to negotiate an agree- nism for monitoring international ment that would "reduce the threat of climate change U.S. May Veto Key Parts of Agenda 21 Within minutes, the Edison Electric Institute, a trade associa- The U.S. delegation to PrepCom sion to disassociate the United tion of investor-owned utilities, 4, facing a series of confrontations States from any of the negotiating which is also a leading member of with most other delegations on a documents would not be taken the Global Climate Coalition, de- number of issues, is weighing the lightly. "It would be regarded as an manded that the provision calling possibility of disassociating the unfriendly act," commented one U.S. for reform of national accounting United States from some key parts official involved in delegation dis- systems be eliminated from the reso- of Agenda 21, according to U.S. offi- cussions. But U.S. officials are also lution. Similar calls from individual cials. Agenda 21 includes a long list afraid that there may not be enough utilities followed. of national and international ac- time at the PrepCom to go through Finally, a leading private util- tions on environment and all of the issues in each program ity in Committee Chairman Dante development in 21 program areas, area of Agenda 21. Fascell's (D-Fla.) district made the along with methods of implementa- No decision has been made on same demand. The committee's tion. how to handle the negotiating docu- chief of staff then called off the vote Officials told Earth Summit ments that call for significant on the resolution until industry rep- Update February 21 that the U.S. policies and programs that the resentatives had a chance to make delegation will strive to achieve com- United States opposes, according to their case. A meeting between those promises wherever possible on the officials, but the delegation is representatives and committee staff Agenda 21 issues and that the deci- See Agenda 21, page 3 -ae 9 REU 03-20-92 08:35 EST 44 Lines. Copyright 1992. All rights reserved. BC-ENVIRONMENT-GERMANY BONN BACKS EARTH SUMMIT DESPITE BUDGET STRAIN By Marcus Kabel BONN, March 20, Reuter - Bonn is willing to pay more for world environment and development plans negotiated at the United Nations despite a budget stretched by German unity, Environment Minister Klaus Toepfer said on Friday. Toepfer said Bonn will press for funds at a U.N. Earth Summit this June despite tough domestic spending limits imposed until 1995 to deflate a multi-billion mark (dollar) deficit. 'It is true that we have to run a very restrictive budget. But we have always made clear that we will not withdraw from our international responsibilities because of that, Toepfer told Reuters. "The German government remains of the opinion that there will be new and additional financial measures, he said, referring to the U.N. Conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in Brazil. National delegations in New York this month are negotiating proposals to protect the Earth and aid developing countries that could cost industrial nations up to 600 billion dollars if PRESS RETURN TO CONTINUE OR ENTER A REQUEST. agreed in Brazil. ''The point is to get as many states as possible at UNCED to say 'ves, we too accept additional and new funding', Toepfer said. Toepfer spoke ahead of a Monday meeting of European Community environment ministers in Brussels who will discuss a joint position sought by the 12 EC states for the U.N. summit. Economic powerhouse Germany is the EC's biggest nett contributor, but its finances have been strained by rebuilding former East Germany and pouring aid into Eastern Europe. Toepfer said Bonn would not stop lobbying for more environment and development funding by its own five-year budget plan to slash a federal deficit that skyrocketed after German unity in 1990. Finance Minister Theo Waigel last week repeated his commitment to strict budget discipline, pledging to narrow the deficit to 25 billion marks (15 billion dollars) in 1995 from 52.1 billion (31.2 billion dollars) in 1991. Toepfer said it was more likely UNCED would top up existing funds than create whole new ones to pay for programmes like technology transfers from rich to poorer countries to battle pollution or preserve rain forests. PLEASE ENTER A REQUEST. talking points Will the President Blame it on Rio? April 2, 1992 President Bush Threatens to Boycott Rio Conference President is Lone Holdout on Global Environmental Conference World Leaders Gather: The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in Rio de Janeiro in June is likely to be the largest gathering of world leaders to discuss international envi- ronmental issues in two decades. Despite this, President Bush has not announced his intention to attend the conference. A Lone Boycott: For a President who has repeatedly called for a strong American role in international affairs, his absence from this conference contradicts his own policy. Every major world leader has announced their intention to attend the Rio conference except for President Bush. If ever there was a foreign trip the President should take, this democratic policy committee one is it. Democratic Policy Committee George J. Mitchell, Chairman United States Senate Thomas A. Daschle, Co-Chairman Washington, D.C. 20510-7050 Monica Healy, Staff Director dpc Bush Administration - Dragging Its Feet on Global Environmental Issues The Bush Administration continues to resist any action that may yield meaningful results in improving the global environment. The expansive implementation strategy, known as "Agenda 21," which will be signed at the Rio conference, may be so watered down due to pressure from the Bush Administration that it will significantly lessen its impact and thereby slow progress on meaningful international cooperation on the environ- ment. Bush Won't Comment: The Bush Administration supports only broad policy statements for a separate convention on climate change but op- poses making commitments on timetables or targets for controls on greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, the Bush Administration agrees on the need to reduce greenhouse gases, but will not commit to any specific limit on emissions of greenhouse gases. U.S. Blocks Ozone Language: In the debate over atmospheric pollution, specifically ozone depletion, the U.S. has opposed language urging the replacement of all ozone depleting chemicals with non-ozone depleting chemicals. U.S. Blocks Cutting Consumption: The U.S. has also opposed all attempts to address the issue of reducing natural resource consumption by industrialized countries. With just 5 percent of the world's population, the U.S. consumes 20 percent of the world's resources. If these figures are extended to include all industrialized countries, the ratio is even more compelling, 20 percent of the population consumes 80 percent of the resources. Watered-down Rehash: Due to the intransigence of the U.S. position, it is feared that the final declaration of the Rio conference will be trans- formed from a strong, forward looking document to a meaningless statement that repeats past issues and concerns. DPC Talking Points p.2 Bush Remains Hostage to Narrow Special Interests Hostage to Interests: Unfortunately, President Bush continues to be held hostage to a group of special interests that have an interest in main- taining the status quo on the environment thus placing the planet and our children's future at risk. The Administration, paralyzed by fear of action, refuses to recognize the potential benefits of effective, job creating tech- nologies that can reduce pollution and improve the global environment. Whats at Stakes -The World's DPC Talking Points p.3 *21 EARTH SUMMIT: IS U.S. WEARING A BLACK, WHITE OR GRAY HAT? by Philip Shabecoff NEW YORK -- The Bush Administration is taking a lot of heat from critics who complain that the U.S. government is the major obstacle to a successful Earth Summit. Last week, for example, the N.Y. TIMES carried a front page article quoting "rich and poor countries" saying that the United States is "endangering prospects" for the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, to be held in Rio de Janeiro in June. The criticism focuses in large measure on the United States' refusal to commit to specific sums of new financial aid to help the poorer countries develop in environmentally sustainable ways. It also is aimed at Washington's refusal, so far, to agree to a global warming treaty that includes goals and timetables for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. But many of the diplomats and international civil servants working on preparations for the conference contend that the positions of the U.S. are so varied and complex that it would be an unjust oversimplification to cast Washington in the role of the spoiler. Last week, E. Curtis Bohlen, the head of the United States delegation to the preparatory committee that is negotiating the agreements to be signed by chiefs of state in Rio, stated for the first time the Bush Administration's readiness to mobilize "new and additional" resources to help the developing countries. While it contained several ambiguities and made no specific pledges of money, the statement had a immediate and almost electrifying effect in instilling a new sense of optimism among the delegates. Meanwhile, negotiations on the global warming treaty are continuing and, with the United States showing increasing signs of flexibility in its position, an agreement is possible by June. That being said, it is true that the U.S. delegation is throwing a wet blanket over many of the aspirations of this conference. One of the far-reaching goals of UNCED, for example, is to have the rich industrialized countries reduce waste and pollution and share the planet's wealth more equitably by reducing their consumption of resources, particularly energy. Such voluntary sacrifice by the rich countries is seen as part of a global bargain in which the poorer nations would take steps to stabilize populations and channel their development in ways that did not threaten the global commons. But the United States is adamantly opposing any agreements to set global standards for consumption. The U.S. delegation, reflecting President Bush's declaration that the American standard of living is not negotiable, says that consumption patterns are matters of national, not global concern. Similarly, the United States has been almost alone in opposing a global attack on poverty, contending that is a matter to be addressed at the local and national levels. Ambassador Robert J. Ryan Jr. said that "people sitting in New York City" cannot deal with poverty in faraway lands. (Of course people sitting in the same building in New York City do manage to deal with such matters as internal political conflict in places like Cambodia.) Another major goal of the conference is to promote the transfer of environmentally benign technologies from the rich to the poor countries at preferential and concessional terms. The United States is digging in its heels against such a formula and is calling instead for "technical cooperation" which does not obligate the rich countries to give any financial breaks to the poor. The United States is opposing the inclusion of threats to the environment from military weapons in conference documents. It wants to reserve the option of using the oceans as a final resting place for its decommissioned nuclear submarines. Generally, the U.S. has been against any language in the conference texts which place obligations on governments to act to assure sustainable development or to help the poor countries. Instead, U.S. negotiators have sought to ensure that any goals set by the conference will entail only voluntary compliance by member governments if they think such compliance is appropriate. But the U.S., of course, is not the only nation here taking hard-line positions that stand in the way of consensus agreements. The bloc of developing nations has been heavy-handed in making its agreement on any environmental program conditional on commitments of substantial sums of additional aid. They have also vigorously fought any proposals that smack of an infringement on national sovereignty. Other industrialized countries take the same negative posture on finances, technology and other issues as the United States -- they just do it quietly and let the United States take the criticism. Nevertheless, many of the environmentalists and others here complain that, at best, the United States is conducting damage- control operations in the preparations for the Earth Summit, seeking only to limit its obligations in the post-Rio period. Members of the American delegation, however, insist they are playing a very active, positive role in many of the huge range of issues that faces the delegates -- and some of the U.N. officials agree. One official said that the American delegates, in contrast to some of the Europeans, were especially active in trying to set an institutional mechanism to assure there is a permanent follow- up to the Earth Summit. Ambassador Ryan said at a news conference on Friday that the United States has been especially effective in negotiating an agreement to protect the oceans. The technology cooperation issue, he said, was settled on the basis of a text submitted by the U.S. delegation. The U.S. delegates have also been very active on chemical and waste issues and introduced proposals for a community right-to-know about the hazards of chemicals in their vicinity. "I don't think any country has taken a stronger position in recognizing the role of the nongovernmental organizations in this process," Ryan said. If the United States has gotten a bad rap as the villain of the preparations for Rio, it has also failed to exercise decisive leadership in the Earth Summit process. No nation has done so yet. Former Japanese environmental minister Kazuo Aichi said at a news conference that his country would step forward as leader of the effort to save the global environment. But the Japanese government has given little evidence it is willing to do so. Neither has the European Community been particularly forceful here. Maurice Strong, secretary-general of the conference, and Tommy Koh, the Singapore diplomat who is chairman of the preparatory committee, have given forceful leadership on the road to Rio. But the United Nations is an organization of nation-states. Unless a major nation or group of nations steps forward to demand decisive action to assure an environmentally sustainable global economy, whatever measures that are taken in Rio are likely to be inadequate to the enormous task that faces the international community in the coming years. MEDIA MONITOR *22 TV MONITOR CNN's "Crossfire" hosted Fred Smith of the Competitive Enterprise Institute and Rafe Pomerance of the World Resources Institute for debates on global warming and whether President Bush should attend the Earth Summit in Rio. Smith said increased carbon dioxide levels might not be so bad: "We know that carbon dioxide is a plant fertilizer which is a positive benefit to the peoples of the world Most of the indications are [that increased carbon dioxide levels] look pretty good. Warmer winters, warmer nights, no effect during the day because of clouding We're basically moving towards a world that sounds a lot more like heaven than hell." Show co-host John Sununu: "The fundamental issue is, do you make a trillion dollar commitment to stop growth and economic development?" Pomerance: "The first steps you take are the cheapest ones The point is UNCED - Buchanan vs Bush AP 04/01 03:53 EST V0933 FYI Copyright 1992. The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Minnesota Republican leaders want Patrick Buchanan -- if he won't take their advice to get out of the race -- to spend his time here focusing on Congress and leaving President Bush alone. Nothing doing, says the defiant GOP challenger. "They asked me not to get in in the first place. We didn't take their advice then; we're not taking it now," Buchanan said as he began a three-day visit to Minnesota The conservative commentator met briefly on Tuesday with state party Chairman Bob Weinholzer, who issued a statement asking Buchanan to withdraw and support Bush. "We are hoping Mr. Buchanan is here 10 do battle with the Democrats," said Weinholzer, state co-chairman of the Bush campaign. "If he insists on staying in, (we ask) that he focus on Congress and go after them." Buchanan did one thing the GOP leaders wanted: He aimed at least some of his fire at Congress. Buchanan was sharply critical of Congress at a news conference but also said administration policies are outdated and Bush is a "man of yesterday." "He is locked into the patterns and ideas of yesterday, and tomorrow is coming right down the road at us," he said. "There's a whole new world order." Buchanan said voters are "Ied up with broken promises, with unbulanced budgets, with $500 billion dollar S&L scandals, with secret pay raises in the middle of the night, with check-kiting schemes." "They want a vehicle to say, 'We're fed up with both political establishments and we want change in America' and I can be a vehicle of that protest," Buchanan said. Buchanan attacked foreign aid and called for cutting $15 billion, especially funds for Israel and Egypt. He also criticized plans to bail out the former Soviet Union and offered debt relief as an alternative. The president was unveiling his long-awaited aid package to the former Soviet republics today. Buchanan also urged Bush to avoid the "Earth Summit" June 1-12 in Rio de Janeiro, saying carbon dioxide limits being urged would strike a "crippling blow to the American economy." "We think if I can keep this campaign going, we can get a lot more out of Mr. Bush," he said. "I think we can get him to use the line-item veto, we can get him to index capital gains, we can get him to stay home from that Rio summit." Bush has said he would refuse to go along with a blanket cut in carbon dioxide emissions, which some researchers say causes global warming. ST. SRNL. WALL 3-31-92 Road to Tokyo, Rio, Bitburg President Bush, we hear, is think- ing diversity of its plant and animal ing about topping off his Tokyo trip life, and another would set limits on with a jaunt to Rio de Janeiro for the emissions of carbon dioxide and other international "Earth Summit" in gases said to contribute to global early June. The notion seems to be warming. If taken seriously, these that he could reap hosannas by measures imply anything from na- charming the environmentalists and tional zoning laws to population limits sating the cash appetite of the Third on cities. World. In short, his travel managers All in all, Rio is about the last have a sure nose for debacle. place a U.S. President ought to show The "Earth Summit" will attract up, especially during an election cam- 30,000 government officials and envi- paign. All of us certainly do want to ronmental activists who will spend $30 work for a decent environment, and million to discuss how to reduce the all of us want the Third World to de- world's consumption of resources. The velop economically. But at any given summit's theme is "sustainable devel- moment the demands of each is an in- opment," which amounts to a call for satiable maw; no matter what he reduced development. This theory does, the President can expect contin- holds that developed nations such as ued criticism from these quarters. His the U.S. have spoiled the environment attendance at Rio will only escalate by engaging in economic activity and expectations, demands and criticism. must cut back on everything from en- Meanwhile, he'll have to explain to ergy consumption to water use. voters back home why the govern- ment can't afford to spend more But since in fact wealthy nations keep themselves cleaner, poor nations money on domestic concerns. Going to Rio is putting the President in a no- struggling to get wealthy will also have to reduce their economic growth. win situation, like toting auto exec- utives along to Japan. To convince them to do so, the Rio We wonder what Mr. Bush's travel summit will try to get wealthier na- tions to pony up an additional $70 bil- agents have in mind for his next trip. A little climb on Mount Pinatubo per- lion in foreign aid. This is a kind of haps? Maybe he could visit South Af- bribe the advanced nations will pay to rica and start a dialogue with Xhosa keep the developing nations from de- and Zulu factions. Maybe he could veloping and thereby creating pollu- personally save the West Bank and tion. Even if the money actually reached poor people rather than local Gaza Strip. For the European leg, Mr. kleptocrats, we doubt that the Ameri- Bush could look in at Sarajevo, the capital of the almost-nation of Bosnia, can people will be attracted by the no- where World War I was touched off. bility of this cause. And finally, we have no doubt some Then there is the matter of two le- German politicians could be found gally binding treaties the U.S. is being who would be happy to give him a pressured to sign in Rio. One would guided tour of that military cemetery require the U.S. to preserve the exist- in Bitburg. BUSH 1 UNCED plall RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 1 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER Copyright Philadelphia Newspapers Inc. 1992 DATE: SUNDAY March 22, *1992* PAGE: E06 EDITION: FINAL SECTION: EDITORIAL LENGTH: LONG LETTERS TO THE EDITOR AD PRAISING ADOPTION BRINGS STRONG REACTIONS The Arthur S. DeMoss Foundation pro-life ads are wonderful, positive, life affirming. They do not attack Roe V. Wade or criticize the abortion industry. They simply point to the best choice - life. The vehemence of criticism from the usual pro-abortion fanatics in the National Organization for Women, National Abortion Rights Action League and Planned Parenthood only points up what we in the pro-life movement have been saying all along. These organizations and their supporters are pro-abortion, anti-child and anti-life. Their support of abortion is really based on hatred - for men, for bearing children and sadly, for their own womanhood. Their criticism of these beautiful, positive ads speaks volumes about their bitterness, their selfishness and their callous disregard for any human life RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 2 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 other than their own. Thomas A. De Simone Marlton, Burlington County LIMITED VIEWPOINT ''If you have ever been a mother, the (Arthur S. DeMoss Foundation) ad evokes a tremendous surge of love, said Peggy Kenny of the Louisiana Right to Life Federation (as quoted in Fawn Vrazo's March 15 article, 'A new tack in abortion debate, and new discord''). Well, I am a mother, and when I see these ads, I get a surge all right - of anger and disgust at the limited viewpoint being portrayed. I want to know where the birth mother is - why isn't her anguish and sacrifice portrayed? And I want to know why all the children shown are physically and mentally healthy. Why aren't the thousands of physically and mentally handicapped children - who will never be adopted shown as being available for adoption right now? The money would have been better spent on placing these ''unadoptable'' children into loving homes. Until we take care of the children we already have, we cannot justify creating more who will be abandoned. Lorraine Petrie Cherry Hill IF IT'S A CHOICE, SHUT UP In the March 15 article about the pro-life television commercials, Debbie Levy McKenney is quoted as saying, 'Adoption is a legitimate choice. RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 3 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 Actions of course speak louder than words. The actions of Ms. McKenney and other pro-abortion advocates give a much more accurate picture of their feelings on adoption. Planned Parenthood supporters are trying to find a way to block these advertisements. Yet at the same time Planned Parenthood affiliates have spent megabucks on full-page ads in many newspapers and magazines. I suppose they would like freedom of speech to be reserved for only April 2, 1992 2:16pm Page 2 those who agree with their point of view. Ms. McKenney describes her reaction to the ads as 'screaming and pacing'' and 'very, very angry. This is hardly what we would expect from someone who feels adoption is a ''legitimate choice. One must wonder why the mere mention of adoption would bring about such a response. Why would anyone prefer having a child torn limb from limb to placing the child in a loving home? The answer unfortunately is simple: Money. Abortion is big business. Clinics do not make a profit by referring a client to an organization such as Birthright, which will help her carry her baby to term. After all, as in any business, it's the bottom line that counts. Barbara Burke Voorhees BIRTH MOTHER IS VICTIMIZED I've seen anti-abortion commercials on several television stations that I feel should be taken off of the air. RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 4 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 One of the ways that our family puts commercials into the proper perspective is to ask the question 'What are they selling us now?'' When this anti-abortion commercial came on, we had to think for a minute, but decided that the message was that 'mothers don't count. The commercials present a rosy picture of supply and demand, implying that there is a lucrative market for white babies. Well, we already know that, but our society has always shied away from advertising babies and paying for them because it could encourage women to have children for monetary gain - to get paid for their labor. This is seen as a threat because it trivializes human life. Yet people are not outraged by this commercial even though it encourages the production of children to satisfy the demand for healthy, white babies. It's accepted because it does not appear to trivialize human life. The makers of the commercial were careful not to include the birth mother, because it is her life that is being trivialized and it is she who is being victimized by this message. People take this commercial seriously because no one cares if the woman survives economically, emotionally or even physically. She has committed a transgression against society and must do penance - she must pay for her sin. ''A'' for adoption has become society's new scarlet letter. Kathleen Gentilcore Ruben Marlton, Burlington County RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 5 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 THIS IS CAUSE FOR SCREAMING? Above the din of the abortion battlefield, the DeMoss Foundation gently struck a chord with its ''Life. What a beautiful choice'' ad. Planned Parenthood supporters called for a ban on the ad and pro-abortion leader Debbie Levy McKenney was caused to 'scream and pace. If the truth and beauty of the DeMoss Foundation ad disturbs the pro- abortion leaders, perhaps they should ask themselves why. Mary B. Hickey Unionville, Chester county WHAT ABOUT IMPERFECT BABIES? Those ''Life. What a beautiful choice'' ads on prime time TV have been sticking in my craw for some time now. To me these ads are saying: All babies are born happy and healthy and grow up to lead productive lives; don't deny them the right to life because they April 2, 1992 2:16pm Page 3 weren't planned. Well, that's just great, except that all babies are not born happy and healthy, whether they're planned or unplanned. And to imply that they are is wrong. Those ads would sit a lot better with me if they showed some of the failures as well as the successes. Showing a drooling kid in a wheelchair or a 20-year-old banging his head against a wall might bring a different reaction from the viewer than showing happy kids getting hugged. RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 6 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 And this is all beside the point of the so-called crack babies and those who are kept alive by extraordinary means only to face barren, futile lives, many of them in institutions. I object to those ads because I do not think the end justifies the means. Anne B. McClellan Newtown Square, Delaware County A POSITIVE MESSAGE ''Life. What a beautiful choice!'' That is the message of a series by the anti-abortion people. At last, some people in this group have finally begun using their brains rather than their emotions. Congratulations! This is a positive message with which most pro- choice people can agree. I pray this group will now communicate with the abortion clinic terrorists and help them understand how their tactics are actually counterproductive to the communication process. Perhaps then both sides in the abortion issue will begin to have a dialogue instead of confrontations. Tom Long Media IMPROVING ENTERPRISE ZONES The excellent March 8 Commentary Page article by Donald Kimelman on the lonely vigil of Seitchik & Sons illustrates how an enterprise zone business toughs it out. Zone residents and businesses are crying out for adequate anti- RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 7 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 crime measures. Businesses want tax incentives to come into zones, low loans to stay in them and ''adequate'' city services to prosper in them. Enterprise zone businesses and the city administration need to form a ''public-private partnership'' if we're to incubate businesses in Philadelphia. Zone members and the city need to communicate in order to get mutual solutions to mutual problems. So how can we develop a comprehensive long-range strategic planning process to survive and prosper? As president of the Hunting Park West Enterprise Zone Business Association, I propose the creation of a blue-ribbon committee of leading enterprise zone businessmen and women, community neighborhood leaders, and city administration spokespeople, to discuss enterprise zone issues and needs. Their concerns should not be limited solely to city services and anti-crime measures, but should include looking for ways to make our enterprise zones (and inner-city areas) safer, better functioning and more prosperous. Bernard E. Featherman Philadelphia RIO EVENT IS OF HIGHEST IMPORTANCE In response to the March 8 editorial on President*Bush' s*avoidance of the United Nation's Conference on Environment and Development* (UNCED) *in Rio de Janeiro in June, I am pleased to finally see the issue beginning to be discussed in the public forum. The lack of public awareness about the conference is both sad and alarming. However I fear the timing of the April 2, 1992 2:17pm Page 4 RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 8 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 editorial may be a day late and a dollar short. Although the stance taken was that Mr. *Bush*should go, the suggestions could have been made that citizens could help encourage U.S. participation by supporting the congressional resolutions that call for the United States to play a substantial leading role at*UNCED. *Also, the importance of the final preparatory meetings currently being held at the United Nations headquarters in New York cannot be exaggerated. A call for citizen pressure could help influence the*Bush*administration to play a more substantial role. A sense of political vision beyond the elections in November would see UNCED as a landmark for the future course of humankind, a benchmark signaling which of the two possible paths we will take: Will we follow the path the Bush administration has thus far exemplified - business as usual, procrastinating our way into the future until we have degraded our planet into a global ghetto and are inevitably forced to make changes out of desperate necessity? Or will we begin the change in Rio and meet the monumental challenge ahead of us with the kind of national vision John F. Kennedy called for to put the United States on the moon? The global conference in Rio is not high on the President's priorities because he suffers from political nearsightedness, a disease that will be cured only by public outcry. But the window of opportunity is also quickly ending. There is no issue of greater importance than the opportunity presented RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 9 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 before us to create a more viable future. We the people must encourage our government to take the role of leadership at Rio in June. Nothing less is acceptable. John Hasse Mullica Hill, Gloucester County * Your editorial about President Bush and the upcoming ''Earth Summit'' conference made some good points about the need for the United States to be more supportive of international environment-protecting measures. But it failed to note the excellent economic reasons for taking such a stance. Because this country began to legislate seriously about the environment earlier than other nations, we now have the best developed, and in many ways the most technically advanced environmental cleanup industry. This industry generated domestic sales of $130 billion in 1991, continued to grow at a double-digit pace, currently employs two million people and exported more than $6 billion worth of pollution control equipment and environmental services last year. The endemic ecological woes now sweeping the planet are providing enormous economic opportunities to export our own hard-won expertise in this field - a process that would not only benefit the natural environment, but prove a boom to our national economy. Instead of fudging on environmental protection to protect domestic polluters, in other words, Mr. Bush should go to Rio and RANK 1 OF 1, PAGE 10 OF 10, DB PI2, DOCUMENT 82264 ballyhoo our unique abilities to solve ecological problems. The old choice paradigm that pits ''the environment against economic development'' is totally passe. You either have a clean, efficient, low- polluting and prosperous society, or you become a foul, waste-spewing economic backwater. It would be nice if ''our man in Rio'' were to reflect an understanding of this new environmental economics at the Earth Summit. APR 07 '92 09: P.1 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION NETWORKS TUESDAY, APRIL 7, 1992 GLOBAL WARMING NETWORK ONLINE TODAY A Daily Executive Summary Covering World News on Climate Change INTERNATIONAL REPORT pointed out that U.S. negotiators were attempting to remove SUCCESS OF UNCED HANGS IN THE BALANCE AS requirement that all nations submit an annual environmental NATIONS ASK "WHO WILL PAY?" progress report. P Last Friday, the final round of UNCED Preparatory Committee The U.S. has consistently rejected international propesals for deliberations ended on a note of disillusionment for many curbing the emissions of CO2, the principal contributor to involved. The major covenants including the World Forest anthropogenic, global warming. Agreement, the legally binding Climate Change and (BOSTON GLOBE: 4/3) Biodiversity Conventions, and the Earth Charter, a proposed "Magna Carte for the Planet", remain unresolved. The primary cause of the stalemate is the issue of funding. EDITORIALS. REVIEWS AND ASIDES UN officials have estimated the costs of environmental cleanup DECLARATION OF EARTH SUMMIT PRINCIPLES and the funding of appropriate technology for developing nations at around $125-150 billion. The financial The following are excerpts from the working draft of a responsibilities would be split among the wealthier declaration of sustainable development principles to be signed industrialized nations. Disagreements as to who should pay this June at UNCED: what, and how much, have virtually paralyzed the Earth Summit negotiations. THE CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT Assistant Secretary of State, Curtis Bohlen said that "we've lost a great opportunity. It's a great disappointment to many of us "Principle 1: Human beings are at the center of concern for that we could not agree on finances." World Forest Agreement sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and talks took a turn for the worst when Malaysia blocked any productive life in harmony with nature. hopes for a compromise. Malaysia is currently denuding its "Principle 2: States have, in accordance with the Charter of the forests at the most rapid rate in the world. United Nations and the principles of international law, the The Climate Convention and World Forest Agreement are sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their strongly tied together as proposals that attempt to halt global own environmental and developmental policies, and the warming. Scientists have identified the world's forests as a responsibility to insure that activities within their jurisdiction or major carbon sink that plays an integral role in the earth's control do not cause damage to the environment of other states climatic regulation. or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction. The 160 participating nations did come to a relative agreement "Principle 3: The right to development must be fulfilled so as to on the basic commitment of all nations to sustainable equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of development (See "Earth Summit Principles below). present and future generations. The text of the declaration indicates a recognition by the "Principle 5: All states and all people shall cooperate in the industrialized nations of their role in environmentally essential task of eradicating poverty as an indispensable sustainable economic growth. The document states that those requirement for sustainable development, in order to decrease who pollute should take the responsibility for the cleanup costs. the disparities in standards of living and better meet the needs of the majority of the people of the world. The draft of the declaration is not a legally binding document. Efforts are underway to provide mechanisms for enforcement "Principle 8: To achieve sustainable development and a higher through a UN monitoring system. quality of life for all people, states should reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption and (WASHINGTON POST: 4/4) promote appropriate demographic policies. "Principle 13: States shall develop national law regarding ENVIRONMENTALISTS GIVE U.S. AN "F" AT UNCED liability and compensation for the victims of pollution and other PREPCOM NEGOTIATIONS environmental damage. States shall also cooperate in an expeditious and more determined manner to develop further Representatives of the environmental non-governmental international law regarding liability and compensation for organizations (NGOs) citing a lack of political leadership and adverse affects of environmental damage caused by activities commitment to the values of the Earth Summit, vowed to take within their jurisdiction or control to areas beyond their matters into their own hands come this June in Rio de Janeiro. jurisdiction. Preparatory sessions have been bogged down in hours of "Principle 15: In order to protect the environment, the disagreement over singular words and phrases contained in precautionary approach shall be widely applied to states documents that are hundreds of pages in length. according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of The NGOs reserved their harshest criticism for the United serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective States. Barbara Bramble of the National Wildlife Federation measures to prevent environmental degradation." speaking on behalf of the environmental NGOs, accused the United States of "seeking to remove every reference to For a copy of this document call UN Info, Phone:(202) implementation (of any environmental program)." She also 289-8670. ======== Copyright 1992 by Environmental Information Networks, Inc.; 119 South Fairfax Street; Alexandria, Virginia 22314. Phone: (703) 683-0774 Fax (703) 683-3893. ENVIRONMENT AID FOR POOR NATIONS AGREED AT THE U.N. SOME ISSUES UNRESOLVED Industrialized Countries Vow to Help Others to Develop NEW YORK TIMES Without Hurting Nature 4-5-92 pg.1 By PAUL LEWIS Special to The New York Times UNITED NATIONS, April 4 - Rep- resentatives from more than 160 na- tions agreed early today on a document that commits the industrial nations of, the Northern Hemisphere to help poor- er Southern countries develop in a way that will not damage the environment. The document, in draft form, was the only full accord to come out of five weeks of negotiations here in prepara- tion for an international environmental conference in Rio de Janeiro in June. But three other major issues taken up in the preparatory negotiations re- main unresolved. What Was Not Settled Although the conference adopted portions of Agenda 21, a plan for clean- ing up the world's environment In the 21st century, disputes continue on how to pay for the cleanup, whether devel- oping countries should have free ac- cess to new, environmentally sound technologies, and how to safeguard the world's forests. Discussion of these Is- sucs resume In Rio. Also unresolved are two legally bind- ing conventions - one on stabilizing climate and the other on protecting the diversity of plant and animal life. The draft Rio Declaration on Envi- ronment and Development commits the world's nations to a number of principles that have not been univer- sally accepted before. Al its heart is an agreement that eradicating poverty Is an "Indispensable requirement for sus- tainable development." [Text of the declaration, page 10.] Costs and Precautions The other main points are that those who pollute should bear the cost of cleaning up, that nations should guard against environmental damage even if there are not established scientific rea: sons for precautions, that women have "a vital role in environmental manage- - ment and development" and that while nations have a right to exploit their own resources, they have no right to "cause damage to the environment of other states or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction." The richer northern countries ac- knowledge, in convoluted language, that the damage their own industrial- Ization has done, as well as the greater wealth they have acquired, give them a special responsibility to help poorer lands ralse living standards In environ- mentally safe ways. And developing countries, which have environmental problems like overgrazing of land and the destruction of forests, pledge to curb soaring birth- rates that contribute to poverty and to environmental degradation. The declaration, which was adopted early this morning, emerged out of a Continued on Page 10, Column 3 Continued From Page I long and bitter North-South political struggle that dominated the meeting. NEW YORK TIMES At first, the negotiators hoped to 4-5-92 draft an Earth Charter, which the in- dustrial nations saw as a relatively Pg2 short statement, committing countries in soaring, visionary language to safe- guard the world's natural inheritance. But developing nations insisted on a more detailed, pragmatic document that would force the North to take responsibility for the world's environ- mental difficulties and promise to help them continue their development safe- ly. In addition to financial help, the developing countries are asking the- cricher ones to share new manufactur- ing techniques that will enable them to industrialize without polluting. At the last moment, Israel threat- ened to prevent unanimous approval of the declaration, arguing that a refer- ence to safeguarding the natural re- sources of "people under oppression, domination and occupation" constitut- ed "political pollution" of the text by the Palestine Liberation Organization and its Arab allies. But this dispute was put aside, and the conference approved the compro- mise draft by acclamation. Third World Nations Happy "The declaration captures the mid- die ground between the North's con- cern with cleaning up the environment and the South's concern with continu- ing its economic development," a Western diplomat said afterward. Developing countries appeared par- ticularly pleased with the final text, seeing it as a victory for their view that any general statement of environmen- tal principles must also address their development needs. "Developing countries feared recolo- nization through environmental condi- tionalities because they are. weaker than the North," said Tariq Osman Hyder of Pakistan, chief negotiator for the Group of 77, as the developing Steve Berman countries call themselves at the United Maurice Strong, Secretary General of the United Nations Conference Nations. "But this document achieves a middle point between northern and on Environment and Development, during a news conference before southern goals." the end of five weeks of negotiations in preparation for an international Annual Cost Estimate environmental meeting in Rio de Janeiro in June. The United States gave some ground during the talks. Before, it did not trial nation has committed any specific Such an increase in aid is generally acknowledge the need for new re- amount of money. dismissed as unrealistic in the present sources in developing countries to help It is estimated that the poorer na- economic climate. But some European pay for cleaning up the environment. tions will need $125 billion a year in diplomats say they expect the wealthy But after criticism, Washington agreed foreign assistance to fully carry out nations to pledge $3 billion to $6 billion to join others from the industrial world Agenda 21 - about $70 billion more in additional assistance at the Rio in the view that developing countries than the $55 billion they receive in aid meeting. In addition they argue that will need further resources. No indus- from the North today. current aid will increasingly be given Trying to avoid the damage that can go with NEW YORK TIMES development. 4-5-92 pg.3 for environmentally sound projects re- lated to Agenda 21. North and South are also divided over how to give the poorer countries better access to environmentally sound technologies developed in the industri- al world and how to protect the world's remaining forests. Malaysia, India and other developing countries with substantial forests are reluctant to acknowledge that that they have an obligation to preserve them in order to prevent changes in climate that affect other countries, as the North wants. Providing Enforcement While neither today's draft declara- tion nor the full Agenda 21 is legally binding, a means for monitoring com- pliance is expected to be devised in Rio de Janeiro. This would put pressure on violators through public criticism; much like with the enforcement of hu- man. rights standards. Some nations favor creating a new Sustainable Development Commission to follow up on the commitments made by nations in Rio de Janeiro, while others say thisshould fall to the United Nations Economic and Social Council.! The United States remains at logger heads with the rest of the world in negotiations on a binding international convention on combating global warm- ing. The Bush Administration continues to refuse to set specific detailed targets for curbing emissions that contribute to rises in temperature. Increasingly sharp criticism of the United States has come from the European Commu- nity, which insists on a treaty with specific emission limits. And Mr. Bush has not said whether he will be among the more than 60 heads of state and government who have pledged to attend the Rio confer- ence. Jean Rippert, the French chairman of the negotiating body for this conven- tion has scheduled a small meeting of, key countries in Paris later this month to try to find a compromise before the next formal round of negotiations in New York in May. Separate negotia- tions on the convention protecting the biological diversity of plants and ani- mals are making better progress. I called Kerry's LD & told we expect 45-60 min. He said fine, if it losks like less for any ceason he will call me & we will go fight our own time battle Don't let Steve reach as time agreement we don't like. Special 10 The New York Times through exchanges of scientific and technological NEW YORK TIMES UNITED NATIONS, April 4 - Following is the knowledge, and by enhancing the development, draft text of a declaration of principles for encour- adaptation, diffusion and transfer of technologies, 4-5-92 aging environmentally responsible development including new and innovative technologies. that is to be considered in June by leaders attend- Principle 10. Environmental issues are best han- Pg.1 ing an environmental summit meeting in Rio de died with the participation of all concerned citi- zens, at the relevant level. At the national level, Janeiro: each individual shall have appropriate access to information concerning the environment that is THE CONFERENCE ON held by public authorities, including information on hazardous materials and activities in their ENVIRONMENT communities, and the opportunity to participate in AND DEVELOPMENT, decision-making processes. States shall facilitate and encourage public awareness and participation HAVING MET at Rio de Janeiro from June 3 to 14 by making Information widely available. Effective 1992, access to judicial and administrative proceedings, REAFFIRMING the Declaration of the United including redress and remedy, shall be provided. Nations Conference on the Human Environment, Principle 11. States shall enact effective environ- adopted at Stockholm on June 16, 1972, and seeking mental legislation. Environmental standards, to build upon it, management objectives and priorities should re- WITH THE GOAL OF establishing a new and equi- flect the environmental and developmental con- table global partnership through the creation of text to which they apply. Standards applied by new levels of cooperation among states, key sec- some countries may be inappropriate and of un- tors of societies and people, warranted economic and social cost to other coun- Draft of Environmental Rules: 'Global Partnership' WORKING TOWARD international agreements tries, in particular developing countries. which respect the Interests of all and protect the Principle 12. States should cooperate to promote integrity of the global environmental and develop- a supportive and open international economic mental system, system that would lead to economic growth and RECOGNIZING the integral and Interdependent sustainable development in all countries, to better nature of the earth, our home, address the problems of environmental degrada- tion. Trade policy measures for environmental PROCLAIMS that: purposes should not constitute a means of arbi- Principle 1. Human beings are at the center of trary or unjustifiable discrimination or a dis- concerns for sustainable development. They are guised restriction on International trade. Unilater- entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmo- al actions to deal with environmental challenges ny with nature. outside the jurisdiction of the importing country Principle 2. States have, in accordance with the should be avoided. Environmental measures ad- Charter of the United Nations and the principles of dressing trans-boundary or global environmental international law, the sovereign right to exploit problems should, as far as possible, be based on an their own resources pursuant to their own environ- international consensus. mental and developmental policies, and the re- Principle 13. States shall develop national law: sponsiblility to insure that activities within their regarding liability and compensation for the vic- jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the tims of pollution and other environmental dam- environment of other states or of areas beyond the age. States shall also cooperate in an expeditious limits of national jurisdiction. and more determined manner to develop further Principle 3. The right to development must be international law regarding liability and compen- fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental sation for adverse effects of environmental dam- and environmental needs of present and future generations. Principle 4. In order to achieve sustainable devel- opment, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and ON WOMEN'S ROLE cannot be considered in isolation from it. Principle 5. All states and all people shall cooper- "Women have a vital role in en- ate in the essential task of eradicating poverty as an indispensable requirement for sustainable de- vironmental management and velopment, in order to decrease the disparities in development. Their full partici- standards of living and better meet the needs of the majority of the people of the world. pation is therefore essential to Principle 6. The special situation and needs of achieve sustainable develop- developing countries, particularly the least devel- ment." oped and those most environmentally vulnerable, shall be given special priority. International ac- tions In the field of environment and development should also address the Interests and needs of all coutries. age caused by activities within their jurisdiction Principle 7. States shall cooperate in a spirit of or control to areas beyond their jurisdiction. global partnership to conserve, protect and re- Principle 14. States should effectively cooperate store the health and integrity of the earth's ecosys- to discourage or prevent the relocation and trans- tem. In view of the different contributions to global fer to other states of any activities and substances environmental degradation, states have common that cause severe environmental degradation or but differentiated responsibilities. The developed are found to be harmful to human health. countries acknowledge the responsibility that they Principle 15. In order to protect the environment, bear in the international pursuit of sustainable the precautionary approach shall be widely ap- development in view of the pressures their societ- plied to states according to their capabilities. ies place on the global environment and of the Where there are threats of serious or irreversible technologies and financial resources they com- damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not mand. be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective Principle 8. To achieve sustainable development measures to prevent environmental degradation. and a higher quality of life for all people, states Principle 16. National authorities should endeav- should reduce and eliminate unsustainable pat- or to promote the internalization of environmental terns of production and consumption and promote costs and the use of economic instruments, taking appropriate demographic policies. into account the approach that the polluter should, Principle 9. States should cooperate to strengthen in principle, bear the cost of pollution, with due endogenous capacity building for sustainable de- regard to the public interest and without distorting velopment by improving scientific understanding international trade and investment. Principle 17. Environmental impact assessment, as a national instrument, shall be undertaken for NEW YORK TIMES proposed activities that are likely to have a signifi- cant adverse impact on the environment and are 4-5-92 subject to a decision of a competent national pg.2 authority. Principle 18. States shall immediately notify oth- er states of any natural disasters or other emer- gencies that are likely to produce sudden harmful effects on the environment of those states. Every effort shall be made by the international commu- nity to help states so afflicted. Principle 19. States shall provide prior and timely notification and relevant information to potential- ly. ffected states on activities that may have a significant adverse trans-boundary environmen- tal effect and shall consult with those states at an early stage and in good faith. Principle 20. Women have a vital role in environ- mental management and development. Their full ON SPREADING THREATS "States should effectively coop- erate to discourage or prevent the relocation and transfer to other states of any activities and substances that cause severe en- vironmental degradation or are found to be harmful to human health." participation is therefore essential to achieve sus- tainable development. Principle 21. The creativity, ideals and courage of the youth of the world should be mobilized to forge a global partnership in order to achieve sustain- able development and insure a better future for all. Principle 22. Indigenous people and their commu- nities, and other local communities, have a vital role in environmental management and develop- ment because of their knowledge and traditional practices. States should recognize and duly sup- port their identity, culture and interests and en- able their effective participation in the achieve- ment of sustainable development. Principle 23. The environment and natural re- sources of people under oppression, domination and occupation shall be protected. Principle 24. Warfare is inherently destructive of sustainable development. States shall thèrefore respect international law providing protection for the environment in times of armed conflict and cooperate in its further development, as neces- sary. Principle 25. Peace, development and environ- mental protection are interdependent and indivis- ible. Principle 26. States shall resolve all their environ- mental disputes peacefully and by appropriate means in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. Principle 27. States and people shall cooperate in good faith and in a spirit of partnership in the fulfillment of the principles embodied in this Dec- laration and in the further development of interna- tional law in the field of sustainable development. nzT 3-24-92 U.S. Is Drawing Fire for Policies U.S. Under Fire On World Environment Meeting In Talks at U.N. On Environment Continued From Page Al Government and Industry officials introduced the nation's first "ozone exercise leadership to insure their suc- friendly" supermarket in Glens cess, saying that at a minimum agree- Falls, N.Y. Business Day, page D1. Poor Nations Ask Help ment must be reached on "new and additional" aid to the third world and to Cut Gas Emissions on the stabilization of emissions. many of these questions are the subject "The United States must use its mor- of continuing negotiations in other in- ternational forums makes the discus- al authority, its political and economic sions here even more complex. strength and its leadership skills to "With 60 percent of our time gone, By PAUL LEWIS resolve the impasses that are frustrat- we've only negotiated 5 to 10 percent of Special to The New York Times ing progress," Senator Gore said. the output," Canada's chief delegate, UNITED NATIONS, March 23 - America's reluctance to commit it- John Bell, who is chairman of the group Rich and poor countries attending a self to freezing its emissions of "green- dealing with financial questions, said five-week conference here say the house" gases at 1990 levels by the year last week. "Increased funding for the United States is endangering prospects 2000 imperils agreement on the developing world is absolutely central. planned new international convention for the international environmental It's frustrating we haven't even started¹ on stabilizing the global climate, which negotiations.' meeting planned for Rio de Janeiro is supposed to be the centerpiece of the Asked about America's reluctance to next June. Rio agreement. provide aid, Pakistan's United Nations These countries say that by refusing Last week the Environmental Pro- representative, Jamsheed K. A. Mark- to promise more environmental aid to tection Agency administrator, William er, current president of the Group of 77, the third world or to set limits for K. Reilly, told the conference that the as the developing countries call them- emissions of gases that contribute to Administration planned no fundamen- selves, said that he did not wish to global warming, the United States tal changes in its position on climate single out the policies of any individual threatens to sabotage the two most change, saying it would continue to countries for public criticism. But in an resist "top down directives or commit- interview he made clear that the devel- important agréements to be taken up ments and targets, the costs and conse- oping world remained unhappy with at the Rio meeting. quences of which we have not yet fully Washington's stance, saying: "Without The purpose of the Rio talks, which assessed." financial commitments it is difficult to are expected to draw thousands of par- While Washington opposes specific, know how this will all end. That's the ticipants from more than 170 countries, binding commitments on cutting emis- biggest stumbling block for the devel- is to plan for a world economy that can oping world." continue to grow without irreversible Chile's delegate, Vincent Sánchez, ecological damage. said: "This conference could fail. Rich and poor We've agreed absolutely nothing of: Cleanup Plan Threated real significance so far. The American stand threatens Agen- nations are Already, an important attempt to da 21, an ambitious, international envi- draft a convention to save'the world's ronmental cleanup plan for the next pressing the U.S. rain forests has collapsed because century, because of third world re- mainly northern, industrial countries quests for additional aid and new envi- and southern, undeveloped countries cannot agree on who is to blame for ronmental technologies from industri- sions of carbon dioxide and other gas- their destruction. alized northern countries. es, Mr. Reilly said that the United The 12 European Community coun- States was still committed to reducing Progress Is Expected tries as well as Canada and Scandina- these emissions through practical ac- While few delegates deny that the via are ready to give additional aid, but tion. Rio preparatory conference has have not committed themselves to spe- 'A Futile Exercise' reached a critical phase, some say cific amounts. progress will pick up in the two re- In an effort to save the separate There has been no visible result so maining weeks as countries realize negotiations on the climate treaty, the far from a meeting last week of the time is running out. "These big confer- United States and about 20 other coun- conference's Secretary General, Mau- ences usually reach a low point about tries have been invited to a meeting in rice F. Strong of Canada, with Treas- now," said Britain's delegate, Fiona Paris on April 15, Portugal, the current McConnell. "It's often darkest just be- ury Secretary Nicholas F. Brady, the president of the European Community, fore the dawn." national security adviser, Brent Scow- announced today. The participants will But increasingly participants here croft, and the the White House chief of try to resolve the standoff before the say that the Rio meetings must be staff, Samuel P. Skinner, in an effort to final round of negotiations opens in judged less on concrete agreements change the American position. New York on April 30. than on broad global initiatives to Today Senator Al Gore, a Democrat "It would be a pity If the convention make economic development environ- had to be postponed until after Rio," from Tennessee who will lead the Sen- mentally sustainable. Portugal's representative to the United ate contingent to the Rio meetings, told "Rio must be seen as the start of a Nations, João Pereira Bastos, said at a delegates that the United States must process, not the end," Mr. Strong, the news conference, adding that Europe would find an American-style conven- conference's Secretary General, said today. Continued on Page A6, Column I tion that did not require detailed com- The last world environmental con- mitments unacceptably weak. In a ference, held in Stockholm 20 years clear reference to the United States, Mr. Bastos said it would be "a futile ago, resulted in most governments' creating environmental ministries. exercise" for Europe to press ahead Agenda 21, the 800-page global envi- with its own climate stabilization plan ronmental action plan, lays down new unless "other regions" joined in. Partly because of these disagree- goals and standards in virtually every field. ments, the conference of more than 170 countries meeting here to prepare the To carry out their part of this agen- agenda for the Rio meeting has entered da, developing countries say they will require $70 billion in additional aid its fourth week with little progress to each year over the $55 billion they now report. receive from northern industrialized But progress is also being slowed, countries. delegates say, by the breadth and com- plexity of the agenda because it identi- Relations Embittered fies poverty and its effects as a funda- mental environmental threat and says Most industrialized nations are that only when it has been abolished ready to make firm pledges of new will the global environment be safe. As resources and access to technology a result, the conference is bogged down that will allow developing countries to in quarrels over economic and social make a safe transition to industrializa- issues that at first sight seem far re- tion. But the Bush Administration con- moved from the environment, includ- tinues to resist even a general commit- ing debt relief, slum clearance, the ment, even though it recently made an Uruguay Round of trade talks and sub- additional $75 million available in envi- sidies for northern farmers that block ronmental aid for developing coun- the agricultural exports of poor coun- tries. tries. The result, many delegates say, has Old Quarrels Reopened been a general embittering of North- South relations at the conference, with These issues complicate the negoti- the Group of 77 pushing a number of ating process by taking up time and demands the northern countries con- reopening old quarrels between the sider extreme, politicized and unac- North and the South. The fact that ceptable. WALL ST. JPNL. 4-7-92 Earth Summit Has Put Bush on the Spot Issue Is Whether to Attend Meeting in Brazil By ROSE GUTFELD tremists pushing hysterical notions of plan- that such an accord, which would include Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL etary peril. In a letter to President Bush, procedures to assess progress every few WASHINGTON-T the National Audu- Rep. Tom DeLay (R., Texas) said, "The years, could be mild enough to be accept- bon Society, this June's Earth Summit in rush to impose global regulations will have able to business groups but strong enough Rio de Janeiro will be "the most important a negative impact on the world economy, to satisfy European nations that have meeting in the history of mankind." jobs, standards of living and health, with pushed for a binding treaty. Radio ads and billboards urge President the most severe consequences falling on -How much money, if any, will the de- Bush to attend. Movie theaters and cable- the developing nations and the poor." veloped world provide to help the Third television stations show announcements Environmental groups reject the notion World develop in an environmentally filled with images of raging fires, billowing that cleaning up the environment will slow friendly way? Some organizers of the sum- smoke and frightened animals, with actor economic growth. They note, for example, mit have said that "sustainable develop- James Earl Jones telling viewers that "at that increasing energy efficiency can lead ment" eventually will require $70 billion of stake is the entire human race." For $6.95, both to cost savings and a reduction in new aid on top of the $50 billion currently people can dial a telephone number and emissions of carbon dioxide, the prime sus- provided each year. More realistically, del- send one of five pre-written Earth Tele- pect in the buildup of greenhouse gases egates have discussed a range of $3 billion grams to the White House. A painting by that many scientists contend may lead to to $6 billion, but even those amounts don't Robert Rauschenberg is dedicated to the a disastrous warming of the Earth. appear to be forthcoming. official Earth Summit Pledge. And there's Despite a series of preparatory meet- a newspaper and a documentary in the ings over the past two years, significant At any rate, the hoopla is building. Big works. questions, which may well determine the Blue Foundation, the environmental media There even are plans for an Earth Sum- success or failure of the summit, remain group that organized the telegram drive, mit concert. unresolved. These include: says its billboard campaign, begun yester- The Rio conference, officially called the -Will President Bush attend? Environ- day in Los Angeles, is soon to go nation- United Nations Conference on Environ- mental Protection Agency chief William wide. The Rauschenberg painting dedi- ment and Development, is designed to be Reilly and other advisers are urging Mr. cated to the pledge-which states, in part, an ecological Bretton Woods, where world Bush to go, and there have been increasing "I pledge to act to the best of my ability to indications lately that he will do SO. Last help make the Earth a secure and hospita- leaders shaped the post-World War II in- ternational financial system at a 1944 con- week, for example, there were several ble home for present and future genera- ference in New Hampshire. The heads of high-level White House meetings on the tions," is also available on posters. as many as 160 nations hope the Rio meet- Rio conference and on a possible climate- Theodore Kheel, the New York labor ing will put the world on a path of sustain- change treaty. But the president, mindful lawyer and chairman of the Earth Summit able development, in other words, a path of conservative opposition, isn't disclosing Committee to Promote the Pledge, said that will allow for continued development his plans. film maker Peter Bogdanovich is produc- without overexploitation of resources and -Will the U.S. sign a treaty aimed at ing a short documentary showing people environmental degradation. Among other curbing global warming? The next negoti- reciting the pledge in six languages. Mr. goals, negotiators hope to produce binding ating session comes at the end of this Kheel publishes the "Earth Summit treaties aimed at limiting global warming month in New York. Administration offi- Times," which will come out during the and halting the loss of key species of plants cials are crafting language under which summit and which has already appeared and animals. They also will seek agree- nations would promise to try by 2000 to sta- during preparatory meetings. ments on forests, oceans and assistance for bilize per-capita emissions of carbon diox- "It's a little different from settling la- developing countries. ide at 1990 levels, but wouldn't pledge to bor disputes," said Mr. Kheel. "And I feel The summit will be held on the 20th an- achieve that goal. U.S. officials contend we're doing something." niversary of the Stockholm conference, the first international gathering on the envi- ronment. To Patrick Buchanan and other conser- vative critics of President Bush, the con- ference is the product of a dangerous mix of Third World bureaucrats seeking to shame the developing nations into giving more foreign aid and environmental ex- V 54 REU 04-15-92 22:24 EST 29 Lines. Copyright 1992. All rights reserved. BC-EARTH-BUSH NBC NEWS SAYS BUSH WILL ATTEND EARTH SUMMIT WASHINGTON, April 15, Reuter - President George Bush will attend the multinational ''Earth Summit' in Brazil this June, according to diplomatic sources quoted by NBC News on Wednesday, but White House officials said no decision has been made. The administration has said Bush will not attend the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development unless it is ''productive.' A National Security Council official and a White House spokeswoman both said Bush had not yet reached a decision on attending and did not know when Bush would decide. Bush's apparent reluctance about going to the summit has sparked criticism that the avowed ''environment president'' is not interested in solving major issues facing the planet. The NBC report gave no details or reasons for the apparent change, simply quoting the sources as saying Bush would go. But one administration official, who did not want to be identified, said of the NBC report, 'It was wrong, I don't know where they got it from. Nothing has changed. The Rio conference, set for June 3 to 14, attempts to pool PRESS RETURN TO CONTINUE OR ENTER A REQUEST. the complex issues of poverty and pollution into a collection of statements, treaties and guidelines never attempted before. Bush has been criticised both for failing to take leadership in the summit and for not adopting a global warming agreement, the centrepiece of the meeting. Bush has said he would not sign if the treaty includes limits on carbon dioxide emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels. 55 AP 04-16-92 01:31 EST 70 Lines. Copyright 1992. All rights reserved. PM-ME--Rio Roosevelt, Bjt,600< AP Photo< Explorers Return From Brazil Jungle< AUGUSTA, Maine (AP) Members of an expedition that followed Theodore Roosevelt's trail along a remote river deep in Brazil's bloodsucking insects. They were constantly wet from the daily rain and 99 percent humidity in the jungle, where temperatures stayed in the 90s. The river was SO narrow and shallow in some places that team members had to pack their rafts and equipment and slash their way through the jungle with machetes. Asked what was the most difficult part of the journey, Tweed PRESS RETURN TO CONTINUE OR ENTER A REQUEST. WASH. POST 5-5-92 Environmental Concern Mounts in Developing Nations Associated Press sumption that rich and poor coun- countries will be added in three or In 20 of the 22 countries, major- tries are deeply split over who is to four months, said Washington State ities chose statements favoring en- Environmental damage, once dis- missed as a concern of the rich, is blame for environmental problems, University sociologist Riley E. Dun- vironmental protection even at the an issue thought to be hampering ne- lap, the project director. risk of slowing economic growth, now widely recognized as a threat gotiations for the U.N. "Earth Sum- Majorities in all 22 countries be- Majorities in 16 of the 22 coun- to human health, according to a 22- mit" next month in Rio de Janeiro. lieve that the environment will af- tries, including India, Chile and nation poll released yesterday by "Residents of poor, rapidly grow- fect the health of their children or Mexico in the low-income category, the Gallup organization. ing nations acknowledge the threat grandchildren, the survey said. The said they were willing to pay higher Protecting the environment has of overpopulation and also accept question of whether the environ- prices to meet environmental pro- joined problems of economic live- partial responsibility for creating ment affects health today was an- tection costs. lihood, crime and violence as "major global problems," the Gallup report swered "yes" by majorities in 10 Because the number of people concerns around the world," the said, while people from richer coun- more countries: South Korea (76 questioned personally by Gallup af- George H. Gallup International In- tries "recognize the disproportion- percent), India (74), Mexico (68), filiates in each country varied, the stitute said in its "Health of the ate impact" on the environment United States (67), Turkey (63), margin of error ranged from plus or Planet Survey." from their industries and lifestyles. Chile (56), Hungary (55), Britain minus 2 percent to plus or minus 4 The survey questioned the as- Polling from as many as 12 more (53), Brazil (51) and Canada (51). percent. "F.5.7.92 BOOK REVIEW Green grow the profits he business world faces a T the amount of electricity it had dilemma over the environ- CHANGING COURSE sold. ment. In only a month, Another case relates how Dow political leaders from more By Stephan Schmidheiny Chemical adopted a policy of elimi- than 100 countries will gather in and the Business Council for nating harmful waste at source Rio de Janeiro for the grandly Sustainable Development rather than by treating it at the end named Earth Summit. The confer- The MIT Press. £20.50 hardback, of the waste pipe, meaning that ence halls will be packed with thou- £9.95 paperback. 355 pages only a minimal amount now ends sands of environmental pressure up in a landfill. groups agitating for action. And the In a quote that typifies much of whole world - or such is the organ- organisers to become their adviser. this book, Dow's president, Frank isers' hope - will be watching. Who Rather than do the job alone, he Popoff, says: "Surveys show that knows what will result? formed a business council with the the public is sceptical of industry's At the very least, the politicians top executives of companies such as efforts at environmental protection. will want to avoid a wasted journey Shell, ABB Asea Brown Boveri, If we fail to take the initiative, the by signing a commitment to get the Volkswagen, 3M, Nissan Motor and result will be a regulatory crunch world economy on to a more sus- Dupont, and all have contributed that costs us - and the public - tainable path. But they might also from their experience. dearly without achieving significant agree to more concrete measures, There are several strands to their benefits." like taxation or regulation, to tackle message. The central ones are that Other cases show how Shell pro- the specific ills of global warming, business favours sustainable devel- moted local nationals in Nigeria, deforestation and pollution. opment, that it accepts the need for Henkel developed the phosphate- The chances of that are rather environmental policies, and that it free detergent which eventually small. The run-up to the summit recognises its responsibility to help swept Europe, and Volkswagen has exposed a world deeply divided the developing world out of its diffi- designed the recyclable car. on green issues; it cannot even culties. In other words, greenery This book is undoubtedly well-in- agree an agenda, let alone a plan of and profit-making can coexist. tentioned, but the question is how action. But it is easy to see why But these arguments are also much impact it will make. The case some business people view Rio as highly qualified. Sustainable devel- studies are rather predictable: the an ominous prospect. They may opment must be achieved by means company always triumphs over welcome the fact that environmen- of free and open markets, environ- adversity. This was a deliberate tal issues have finally got on to the mental measures should be imposed decision "designed to provide posi- global agenda. But Rio will not sim- through economic instruments (like tive examples to motivate others to plify their life; it could make it taxes) rather than controls (which take action", the authors say. more difficult. distort) or self-regulation (which But what a pity they did not Much of the trouble lies in busi- encourages business cartels). And if develop a tantalising reference to ness's poor image, and the wide- business is to enrich the Third 3M being forced to discard a water- spread view that protection of the World with its technology, it must based process for making audio tape environment and the pursuit of be on the basis of "co-operation" (ie because it was not good enough. profit are fundamentally at odds on commercial terms) rather than This is not because, as the authors with each other. "transfers" (terms mandated by say "too often the media focuses on A group of 50 top businessmen government). errors and accidents". It is because has got together to try to deal with None of this sounds specially sur- the world knows that business is these issues, and this book is the prising. But the book fleshes out having a tough time adjusting to result of their labours. It comes these positions with 38 studies of environmental pressures, and it very late in the day, and a lot of it businesses resolving conflicts with needs to be convinced that busi- will cut little ice with Mr Greenper- the environment. nessmen are acting out of genuine son, but it is unquestionably one of There is the case of New England motives. the more important contributions to Electric, the US utility which As NEE chief executive John Rio. devised a system with its regulators Rowe says in the book's most mem- The prime mover is Stephan that enabled it to profit if its cus- orable quote: "The rat has to smell Schmidheiny, a little-known but tomers reduced demand through the cheese." highly successful Swiss business- conservation. Previously NEE's man who was invited by the Rio earnings had been based solely on David Lascelles P.02 MAY 21 '92 22:37 Los Angeles Times THURSDAY. MAY 14, 1992 A3 Negotiators Clash Over Wildlife Treaty Environment: U.S. criticism of an accord on biological diversity sparks trouble at Kenya talks. By MAURA DOLAN Washington-based environmen- TIMES ENVIRONMENTAL WRITER talist think tank, said the treaty would be a "fundamental step for- R epresentatives of more than 80 ward" because it would require nations, meeting in Nalrobi, nations for the first time to be Kenya, to negotiate a treaty to responsible for the conservation of protect the world's wildlife and its their species and landscapes. habitat, are clashing over language But in the Nairobi negotiations. intended to spur conservation but the United States has been "sys- denounced by the United States as tematically trying to weaken and an infringement of states' rights. remove obligations" from the text The talks, which began Monday on instructions from Washington, and will continue through next Miller said in a telephone interview Wednesday, are aimed at produc- from Nairobi. ing a biological-diversity treaty that could be signed by world leaders at the Earth Summit in Rio S en. Albert Gore Jr. (D-Tenn.) de Janeiro next month. gathered signatures Wednes- Some environmental activists, day for a letter to President Bush citing an internal memorandum by asking for a treaty that stresses Vice President Dan Quayle's staff conservation of biological diversi- criticizing many of the proposed ty. "I think that the Administration treaty's provisions, have charged is Intent on gutting the bio-diversi- that the Bush Administration is ly treaty. and I think the argu- trying to gut the document. ments which are being highlighted Among the potential stumbling in their public statements are not blocks is language that would re- their real concerns,' Gore said in a quire signatory countries to regu- telephone interview from Wash- late or manage biological resourc- ington. es, including plants and animals, "I think that they are worried for their conservation and sustain- about offending some parts of the able use. biotech industry by leaving open in Washington has objected to the the convention a possibility for wording. contending that it would future regulation. inadvertently switch jurisdiction John Fitzgerald, who is monitor- for wildlife management from the ing the Nairobi talks for Defenders states to the federal government. of Wildlife, an environmental "What we are trying to do is group, agreed. work out language that makes "The U.S. continued their parade clear that this is shared responsi- of destruction, marching through bility in this country," said Curtis this treaty and gutting any article Bohlen. assistant secretary of state that means anything." Fitzgerald for oceans. the environment and complained from Nairobi. science and a former senior vice He said U.S. negotiators have president of the World Wildlife consistently added such language Fund. as "as far as possible" or "as "But in the process of trying to appropriate" to reduce the obliga- introduce language to do that, tions of signatories. He complained people have perceived it as an that the United States also opposes effort to weaken the convention." language that would require coun- Bohlen added. "I assure you that is tries to perform anienvironmental not our intention." impact assessment of projects on the high seas or overseas. So far. countries such as Aus- A nother potential sticking point tralia, New Zealand and, on occa- has been an effort by. some sion, Germany have blocked many countries to write a treaty that proposed U.S. changes, Fitzgerald calls for strong environmental and said, while India, a developing health safeguards in the release of country on the brink of industriali- genetically engineered organisms. zation. has embraced them. U.S. negotiators have said the Bohlen of the State Department United States will not sign any said some of Washington's pro- treaty that includes measures that posed revisions are intended to would further regulate the bio- protect the freedom of the U.S. technology industry, which uses Navy. For instance. he said, the genetic engineering in the making Navy fears that applying the trea- of items ranging from new drugs to ty to marine areas would reduce agricultural products. freedom of navigation. 'But I-think the chances are that Bohlen noted that the U.S. (disagreements) can be worked out Agency for International Develop- on that." Bohlen said. ment a foreign aid program. al. Kenton Miller, senior associate ready does environmental impact of the World Resources Institute, a assessments of projects overseas. SUNDAY, MAY 3, 1992 The Washington Post OUTLOOK Commentary and Opinion Not Flying Down to Rio How Bush Is Ducking the Global Warming Treaty By Al Gore OR THE BUSH administration, de- F ciding whether the United States can afford to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide has all the seriousness of a rigged television game show: They know the an- swer before they ask the question. And the answer is "no." That's the wrong answer. In fact, it's a dangerous answer, with severe conse- quences not just for the United States and for our economy, but also-because carbon dioxide is the principal cause of global warming-for the global economy, the global environment and for humanity. There is an urgent need for a reality check. Urgent, because a draft agreement on climate change-a compromise released late Friday-leaves many goals unmet. This draft compromise comes as nations from around the world meet for the sixth time in an effort to craft a new international agreement to control emissions of carbon TREATY dioxide and confront global warming in time for the agreement to be signed at the Earth CHRIS MULLEN FOR THE WASHINGTON POST Summit in June. Each time these nations have negotiated, stead of moving forward-has pulied ev- intransigence from President Bush and his ery other nation back to craft an agree- representatives has blocked progress. Now, ment far short of what could have been there is a weak compromise, clouded by accomplished. A treaty without specific confusing and dense language and without targets and timetables is a hollow promise. any specific targets and timetables for ac- There is no assurance it will be kept and tion, but a compromise. Unfortunately, it no promise of future benefit. This is the appears as though the United States-in- final negotiating session. and every indi- Al Gore is the junior Democratic senator cation is that the United States will con- from Tennessee. See GLOBAL C4. Col. 1 Not Flying Down to Rio ysis behind the National Energy Strategy- The Energy Department, apparently afraid search Associates concluded that new conser- concluded. The committee's interim report that the price tag on energy efficiency will be vation investments in Louisiana would provide offers a number of criticisms and points up too high, offers little conservation guidance to more than twice as many jobs as an expansion fundamental flaws in the analysis DOE used to business, school districts and homeowners-as of conventional power generation-about GLOBAL, From C1 conclusions were reached as much by politics craft the energy strategy. How then can the though none is needed or wanted. In fact, cor- 12,600 new jobs over 20 years. A similar stu- as by facts. But, by the administration's own Energy Department continue to use this en- porate America has a far different view of this dy for Virginia reached similar findings. tinue to do all it can to weaken the lan- reckoning, the United States can nearly ergy plan, with its flawed analysis, to justify situation. guage of any treaty. achieve stabilization of carbon dioxide emis- claims that aggressive conservation policies That's why a reality check is needed. The sions at 1990 levels by the year 2000, and- hurt the economy? enormously successful with programs that en- T hese efforts are moving forward with Progressive electric utilities are becoming little help from the administration. The administration is selectively sorting through The National Energy Strategy analysis as- moment is at hand for the president to again by the administration's own reckoning- courage customers to invest in energy efficien- the data to get the answers it wants, ignoring sumes that the U.S. gross national product will start truly leading on the environment-at the easily meet targets and timetables in language cy as an alternative to more expensive invest- even the findings of its own agencies whenever grow at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent upcoming Earth Summit as well as here at now being negotiated by other nations. The they don't support the administration's ad- Bush administration has stubbornly blocked a between 1990 and 2000, while more realistic ments in new generating capacity. For exam- home. If we insist on a weak treaty with no ple, energy conservation and efficiency will vance conclusions. current estimates are between 2 and 2.5 per- binding commitments at Rio, we destroy our binding commitment to these goals on the save Pacific Gas and Electric customers $2.4 For many months, the administration took grounds that the United States, of all the cent. Even DOE's Annual Energy Outlook, capacity to lead. We cannot keep searching for the position that the United States cannot af- compiled by the Energy Information Admin- billion over the next 10 years, money that will excuses instead of working for solutions. world's developed nations, is uniquely unable ford to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide at to reach meet them. istration, uses a 2.3 percent growth rate. be available to strengthen the economy and Without agreements such as the climate- 1990 levels by the year 2000-and sign the These seemingly small differences have a tre- create jobs. In the process, PG&E will reduce change treaty, with its specific deadlines and climate convention at the international Earth mendous impact on projections of carbon di- its carbon dioxide emissions by some 20 mil- Summit-because the economic impact would I ndeed, the administration has consistently targets, there can be no assurances that what endorsed the idea that business profits can oxide emissions. lion tons. must happen, will happen: that carbon dioxide be debilitating. However, the administration's only be hurt by the effort to curb global For example, a 3.2 percent annual average DOE has recently ignored much of the en- emissions will be reduced and global warming most recent analysis, "U.S. Views on Global warming embodied in specific targets and growth rate will forecast an economy that is 9 ergy analysis done by its own national labora- will be confronted. The situation is far more Climate Change," shows not only that we can timetables. For example, previous Department percent larger over the course of a decade. tories. For example, researchers at Oak Ridge serious than is commonly understood. afford to stabilize emissions but that voluntary of Energy (DOE) analyses, such as the Nation- The effect of this is to substantially inflate- National Laboratory and other laboratories The administration is stuck between its eco- energy conservation and other measures have al Energy Strategy and the DOE Report to perhaps as much as double-projections of the concluded that the nation could effectively and nomic analysis and its political instincts. Maybe brought the United States close to meeting the Congress, "Limiting Net Greenhouse Gas increases of carbon dioxide emissions, making profitably stabilize energy use by the year they don't trust the economic analysis. Or proposed targets and timetables-while ac- Emissions in the United States," concluded the job of stabilizing or reducing emissions 2000 and limit subsequent energy growth to maybe they don't want to commit to a stabi- tually enhancing business profits. What was that many of the options now considered prof- seem tougher than it will be in reality. less than 1 percent per year until 2010. But lization treaty because they don't believe that once called too expensive is now called a bar- itable would, in fact, hurt the economy. The DOE's projections of future carbon dioxide DOE's National Energy Strategy ignores the other developed nations are bargaining in good gain too good to pass up. administration justifies its stubborn opposition emissions by the nation's electric utilities are projection. faith-and will renege if they encounter un- But instead of seizing this as a plausible jus- to a strict climate change agreement-indeed, based on an outdated 1986 industry forecast of The fact is that we can create jobs, welcome economic consequences of a stabi- tification for a change in position-and one to any serious U.S. effort to reduce emissions the impact of utility-sponsored energy pro- strengthen our economy and improve our per- lization commitment. that would be politically palatable to the pres- of carbon dioxide-by arguing we can't afford grams. But the industry updated its own anal- formance in the global economy with energy In fact, other nations could also enhance ident's conservative critics-the administra- it. ysis in 1990, forecasting that demand for elec- efficiency and conservation technologies. The their economic growth from committing to tion now argues that this good news means the But a closer look at the administration's own tricity will grow by only 1.8 percent annually private sector is eager to respond to the sta- carbon dioxide stabilization. If we want to be United States doesn't need to sign an inter- analyses of the costs and benefits discloses in the 1990s, significantly lower growth-and bilization challenge. Profitable energy conser- competitive in tough global markets, it is in national agreement-or' at least not one that numerous examples of faulty analysis: therefore, lower emissions-than DOE vation opportunities still exist in our diverse our self-interest to work to raise energy effi- actually requires us to do anything. DOE emphasizes energy production over projected. DOE ignored the new information economy. ciency, increase energy conservation and re- The economic analysis that supported the conservation in its modeling. That's what a and built an analysis that makes the job of sta- Indeed, we can create more jobs by expand- duce carbon dioxide emissions. If we don't, report's findings was debated intensely within National Research Council committee-put to bilizing emissions seem harder by setting the the administration; it is unclear whether the ing conservation than by expanding energy then other nations alone will benefit from cre- work by the department to evaluate the anal- goal farther from us. production. A recent study by Economic Re- ating a more productive economy. BILLION SOUGHT FOR POOR NATIONS nzT 6-5-92 World Bank Plans New Loans to Maintain Environment - U.S. Is Receptive By PAUL LEWIS Special to The New York Times RIO DE JANEIRO, June 4 - The World Bank has proposed that the Unit- ed States and other aid-giving coun- tries contribute $5 billion to a fund that would provide virtually free grants to help the world's poorest countries pro- tect their ecological systems, officials disclosed here today. The plan is. being pressed by the World Bank president, Lewis T. Pres- ton, who wrote to the donor countries last week explaining his plan to add a $5 billion "earth increment" to a World Bank subsidiary known as the Interna- tional Development Agency when its funds are replenished next year. Mr. Preston made his plan public today when he addressed delegates at- tending the Earth Summit. Officials say the United States, which contributes 22 percent of the development agency's funds, has said it will consider the plan, and other donors appear to be supportive. Reserved for the Poorest The World Bank proposal is one of several schemes under debate for rais- ing the estimated $70 billion in new aid that developing countries say they will cannot even afford the World Bank's wealthy and developing coutries repre- need annually to pay for an ambitious normal lending terms. Money bor- sented would have veto power, but spe- global environmental cleanup plan rowed from the development agency is All agree to cific loan proposals would still require known as Agenda 21, which is expected repayable over 35 to 40 years and car- World Bank approval. to be approved at the Earth Summit. ries a nominal interest rate that is support ecology, The third world countries have Without a substantial increase in aid, usually suspended for the first 10 agreed that the Global Environment the third world says it cannot afford to years. continue its development in ways that but who will pay Facility should primarily finance projects designed to prevent global will safeguard the environment. Rich and poor countries are locked in Officials say the World Bank fund the costs? warming, protect endangered species, a diplomatic struggle here over other clean up international waterways and would be earmarked for projects de- ways of raising the additional aid the fight depletion of the ozone layer. signed to protect the environment in third world demands as its price for To find the bulk of the extra $70 countries with annual per capita in- cooperating with Agenda 21 and the with reforms designed to give recipi- billion, the developing countries are comes of up to $740. new conventions being considered at ents a greater say in how it operates. pressing donors to make good by the If donor countries agree to finance the summit meeting on stabilizing the Wariness of World Bank end of the century on their longstand- the proposal, Mr. Preston told the climate and protecting the world's bio- ing commitment to contribute up to 0.7 Earth Summit today, the World Bank logical diversity. "There is a consensus emerging per cent of their total economic output will contribute a "substantial" portion among donors in favor of doubling or in development aid. of its annual profit of about $1.5 billion, Originally the developing countries even tripling the G.E.F. from its Currently, rich northern countries wanted all the additional environmen- instead of using this money to subsidize present level of $1.3 billion when it loans to developing countries that are tal aid channeled through a Green are giving about 0.45 percent of their comes up for renewal next year," Mo- wealth in aid, which amounts to some Fund under their control which would more financially stable. hammed al-Ashry, the agency's Egyp- make loans with no strings attached. $55 billion a year. Raising this contri- Diplomatic Tug of War tian chairman, said in an interview. bution to 0.7 percent would bring the But donor countries were united in But developing countries are wary of total close to what the developing world Currently, about 70 countries are opposing this. Instead, they are offer- the World Bank, which is effectively needs to pay for the Agenda 21 plan. poor enough to qualify for development ing an expansion of the World Bank's controlled by the donor countries. The But the United States, which current- agency loans, which are intended to Global Environment Facility, set up compromise being offered is to create ly gives about 0.21 percent of its wealth help countries who are excluded from two years ago to back environmental a new assembly that would set broad in foreign aid, has always refused to the commercial loan market and who projects in the third world, together policy guidelines by consensus. Both accept the 0.7 percent target. that ended yesterday is an example of George Bush's new world order, the president may want to rethink the whole idea." They reort he was given two drafts of the speech to delegates and chose to give the more conciliatory one (6/15). 3 FUNDING: JAPAN-PLEDGES $7B; GERMANY ALSO TAKES LEAD ROLE As the summit wound to a close, "delegates finally hammered out an agreement Saturday on a compromise formula for funding Agenda 21" (Jane Kay, S.F. EXAMINER). The compromise deleted the target date and has most industrialized nations committing 0.7 percent of GNP to foreign aid "as soon as possible." The U.S. refused to make such a commitment. French President Francois Mitterrand said his country would meet the target by the year 2000. Also Saturday, Japan unveiled a five-year plan that will commit between $7 billion and $7.7 billion to developing countries for biodiversity protection or pollution reduction. The annual figure, about $1.4 billion, is nearly twice what the U.S. proposes spending next year -- $700 million, up from $500 - million in environmental aid this year. A Japanese spokesperson said the figure represented a 50 percent increase in aid. "Japan's pledges left the United States alone among industrialized nations in making no substantial new offers at the summit" (6/14). Japanese PM Kiichi Miyazawa, in a speech circulated in Rio, said that Japan will "play a leading role" in world pollution control (N.Y. TIMES). In a "rare note of harmony between the North and South," the leaders of Pakistan and Norway "criticized what they call low levels of financial commitments made here by the seven industrialized nations" (6/14). Japanese government spokesperson Saadkai Numata, when asked whether the pledge made Japan the world's most important environmental donor nation: "I'll let you be the judge" (PHILA. INQUIRER, 6/14). German Chancellor Helmut Kohl on Friday said his country would triple its contribution to the Global Environmental Facility to $487 million, and called on other developed countries ] to follow suit and raise the GEF's budget threefold to nearly $4 billion (Maura Dolan, L.A. TIMES). Kohl: "We are ready to assume our share, and we ask other industrial countries to do the same." The U.S. has committed $50 million to the fund. A Malaysian delegate said a fund of $3 billion to $4 billion for the developing world was "rather dismal" compared to what industrialized nations are likely to give to Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (6/13). The Third World "almost for the first time enjoys genuine leverage," arguing they cannot curb pollution and conserve resources without significant help from the North (Paul Lewis, N.Y. TIMES, 6/14). EPA Administrator William Reilly: "What you are seeing are other countries with enormous financial capabilities beginning to acknowledge commensurate environmental responsibilities. That is something growth, profitability and electrotechnologies, will be held in Denver, CO. Contact: 800/446-4879. 18 - 21 -- COAL: The National Coal Assn holds its annual meeting in Colorado Springs, CO. Contact: 202/463-2625. 19 - 21 -- SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: The Carrying Capacity Network sponsors a conference in Washington, DC. Issues include growth management, population, energy, sustainable agriculture and resource conservation. Contact: 202/879-3044. EARTH SUMMIT BULLETIN *29 HIGHLIGHTS: MAIN COMMITTEE Published by the Island Press and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (Vol. 2, No. 10, 6/12). Prepared by: Johannah Bernstein, Pamela Chasek and Langston James Goree VI "Kimo." JUNE 10 - 11 -- "PrepCom V" ended at 6:00 am yesterday morning when Main Committee Chair Tommy Koh brought down the final gavel, deferring remaining negotiations to the hands of the politicians. Two and a half years of work by the diplomats had come to an end. After a marathon negotiating session that began at 8:00 pm and ended at dawn, the governments sent to the Plenary three documents: Agenda 21, the Statement on Forest Principles and the Rio Declaration. While most of the text is "clean", brackets remain around several critical points that have been sent to the ministerial level to be negotiated over the next two days. The Main Committee resumed at 8:00 pm Wednesday night, to continue to work sequentially through Agenda 21, beginning where it had left off two hours earlier. As Chapter 19, toxic chemicals, was a clean text, with the exception of the paragraphs on finance, discussion quickly turned to Chapter 20 on hazardous wastes. The one difficult paragraph was 20.23(h) on the military establishment and hazardous wastes. Sweden had undertaken consultations at the request of the Chair and announced the resulting text to the Committee. The compromise was that governments should ascertain that their military establishment conform to nationally applicable environmental norms in the treatment and disposal of hazardous waste. Chapter 21 on solid wastes was a clean text (except for the finance section) so Koh turned to Chapter 22 on radioactive wastes. The problematic paragraph in this chapter, 22.5(c), dealt with the storage or disposal of radioactive wastes near the marine environment. After a brief discussion, the text was adopted. The compromise text emphasizes that states, in cooperation with relevant international organizations, will determine the risk of the disposal or storage of radioactive wastes near the marine environment. Chapters 23-32 of Agenda 21 address the role of major groups. During earlier discussions in the Main Committee, it had been decided that Amb. Mazairac of the Netherlands would hold additional consultations on the remaining bracketed text in these chapters. Chapters 23 (preamble), 24 (women), 25 (children and youth), 28 (local authorities) and 29 (workers and trade unions) were clean texts and not discussed. Compromise text was agreed to in the remaining bracketed paragraphs in Chapters 26 (indigenous people), 27 (NGOs), 30 (business and industry), and 32 (farmers) and was quickly adopted by the Committee. It was Chapter 31 on the scientific and technological community, however, where problems arose. The Holy See questioned why the phrase "appropriate ethical principles" had been removed from the text of paragraph 31.12 on capacity building. Mazairac responded that the delegates who had consulted on this matter thought that the text should be more general as there are important principles other than ethical ones to be considered. The Holy See requested that the text be restored, while calling for the opinions of other delegates. Koh responded that the time was now 9:08 pm and it was unreasonable for one colleague to ask others to speak, as there was still much work to be done. After comments by Argentina, Koh prevailed upon the Committee to adopt the text, with due note of the Holy See concerns Chapter 33, the financial resources chapter of Agenda 21, was transmitted to the Main Committee with bracketed text in three areas: on language that sets a specific date for countries to re-affirm their commitment to increasing levels of ODA to 0.7% of GNP; the exact level for the next replenishment of IDA with or without an "Earth Increment", and; conditionality within GEF. There was no resolution to these problems and brackets here, and in two other areas, remain in the text sent to the ministerial level for further negotiation. Two new sets of brackets surround the word "including" in paragraph 10 that had been omitted from yesterday morning's earliest draft of the text. The insertion of the word "including" in a key phrase that stipulates the types of resources necessary for the implementation of Agenda 21, modified the phrase so that it reads, "will require the provision to developing countries of substantial new and additional financial resources, including on grant or concessional terms and according to sound and equitable criteria and indicators." In the Main Committee, debate ensued over the significance of the term. Countries, including India and Tanzania, argued that the word "including" changes the meaning of the phrase to mean that new and additional financial resources will not be totally grant and concessional money. The US argued that much new and additional funding will be neither grant nor concessional funds but could take the form of private investment or official debt alleviation. The phrase was sent to the Plenary in two sets of brackets. The Main Committee then turned to the 100-plus "financial" paragraphs scattered throughout Agenda 21 in the "Means of Implementation" section of each chapter. These paragraphs have been uniformly modified to reflect the fact that costs associated with the chapter activities are order of magnitude estimates only and the actual value depends on the strategies and programmes implemented. These paragraphs were adopted with minor amendments. Chapter 34 on technology transfer and a list of paragraphs from the other chapters of Agenda 21 that address technology were easily adopted by the Committee. The only bracketed text remaining is in the phrase "environmentally [safe and] sound technology". This phrase was supposed to be resolved in the contact group on atmosphere, as the bracketed text was first introduced in the atmosphere chapter of Agenda 21. Chapters 35 (science for sustainable development), 36 (education) and 37 (capacity building) were clean texts, so Koh opened discussion on Chapter 38 on international institutional arrangements. A spokesperson for Amb. Ismall Razali of Malaysia who coordinated the contact group, reported on the outcome of the group's work and, after a brief discussion, the chapter was easily adopted. The US was pleased with the agreement reached on this chapter and stressed that funds should be reallocated to support UNCED follow-up. Canada welcomed the establishment of the Sustainable Development Commission that will be needed to oversee Agenda 21 implementation. Chapter 39 on international legal instruments and measures was also dealt with quickly. After the coordinator, Nabil el-Arabi, reported on the consensus achieved and stressed the delicate balance achieved, the text was quickly adopted. Chapter 40, information for decision making, is the last chapter of Agenda 21 and, as it was a clean text, no discussion was necessary. At this point Koh returned to the Agenda 21 chapters that were still outstanding. The first of these was Chapter 9 on atmosphere. Amb. Bo Kjelle'n of Sweden introduced the text and explained that although the document was almost bracket-free, several delegations still had trouble with certain paragraphs and, thus, the whole document should remain in brackets. The list of remaining contentious paragraphs address such issues as new and renewable energy resources; improving energy efficiency; environmentally safe and sound energy sources; and the need for regional conferences on transport and the environment. Saudi Arabia then took the floor and delivered a lengthy speech setting out its concerns regarding this chapter. Despite the Saudis' insistence that its opposition was based on its concern with repetition in the text, many delegations called into question the Saudis' true motives. Only a few countries, such as Kuwait and Nigeria, delivered statements largely supportive of Saudi Arabia's position. However, the vast majority of speakers on the interminable list supported retaining the text for several reasons: it represented a fair and balanced compromise; repetition of key concepts such new and renewable sources of energy and safe and environmentally sound energy sources was not problematic, but rather desirable, in light of the supreme importance of these concepts; the text was supported by a large majority of states; consensus should not be interpreted as requiring unanimity; and the fact that the deletion of the entire chapter would seriously undermine not only the fate of Agenda 21, but the entire Conference. The Main Committee did manage to adopt the text, subject to the reservations maintained by the Saudis. The Main Committee finally began discussion of both Chapter 11 on deforestation and the Statement of Forest Principles at 3:00 am. Numerous paragraphs related to the following areas were all referred to the Plenary in brackets: preamble paragraphs (a), (d) and (g) about the "right to develop", a possible future legal instrument and the role of forests; paragraphs 8(d) and (h), regarding sustainable forest management and environmental impact assessments; paragraph 11 on financial resources for sustainable forest management; paragraphs 15(b) and 17 that deal with international trade in forest products and the role of forests in the carbon cycle. Organizational problems in the reporting of the contact group slowed progress. The Russian Federation insisted, on the behalf of the Eastern European group, that language referring to countries that are undergoing transition to market economies be retained, since this document is not part of Agenda 21 and, therefore, not covered by the generic paragraph in the Preamble to Agenda 21. The Agenda 21 chapter on deforestation was dealt with next. The Main Committee was unable to resolve the remaining three bracketed paragraphs. Both of these documents were transmitted to the Plenary to be resolved at the ministerial level. At 5:25 am, Koh began discussion of Chapter 16 on biotechnology. After Amb. Vincente Sanchez of Chile reviewed the contact group's resolution of the formerly bracketed paragraphs in this chapter, Koh brought the discussion to a close and quickly assured the Committee's approval with his now-standard quick gavel. The last substantive item on the agenda was the Rio Declaration This was the only unbracketed text transmitted from the PrepCom. Koh announced that as the result of successful consultations with interested delegations, he was able to propose a package deal that would alleviate one of the problems associated with both the Rio Declaration and Agenda 21: reference to "people under occupation". This package consisted of three parts: adoption of the text of the Rio Declaration as is; reformulating the third sentence of paragraph 1.5 of the Preamble of Agenda 21 to read, "It will be carried out by the various actors according to the different situations, capacities and priorities of countries and regions in full respect of all the principles contained in the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development"; and deleting the words "people under occupation" and "various bodies and organizations under occupation" from the text of Agenda 21. The package deal and, thus, the Rio Declaration, were quickly adopted. The US then took the floor and expressed that it still had problems with the Declaration but, in the spirit of compromise, it was willing to lay aside its concerns. The US also reserved the right to come back to Principle 3, which addresses the right to develop, as this issue was still unresolved in the statement on forest principles. The Palestinian representative then spoke of his continued concern with the importance of including people under occupation in Agenda 21. He added that Agenda 21 is intended for the 21st century and expressed hope that by 2000 there will no longer be any occupied territories and everyone will live in peace. A number of other countries made short statements on this issue. Koh then addressed the last item of business: entrusting the Rapporteur to complete the report of the Main Committee. As the clock struck 6:00 am, Tommy Koh gavelled the Main Committee to a close amidst a prolonged standing ovation. IN THE CORRIDORS: Celso Lafer as Vice President of the Conference has given the responsibility for coordinating ministerial level consultations on the forest issue to Klaus Topfer, Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety of Germany. Consultations were held all day at the German delegation's office and in the conference rooms at RioCentro. An open-ended ministerial-level contact group was scheduled to begin at 10:00 pm last night. Progress on several paragraphs was reported by those close to the consultations. Discussions at the highest ministerial level on financial resources, coordinated by Amb. Rubens Ricu pero of Brazil and assisted by Celso Lafer and Brazilian Finance Minister Marci' lio Marques Moreira, were held Thursday. As well, a ministerial contact group met to resolve the phrase "environmentally [safe and] sound", which is repeated throughout the Agenda 21 chapters on atmosphere and technology transfer and was the subject of heated debate in the Main Committee early Thursday morning. In fact, this issue is the only issue that the Main Committee was unable to resolve in both of these chapters. As of 6:00 pm on Thursday, the ministerial contact group had not yet reached agreement. On Wednesday, Amb. Bo Kjelln, the Chair of the contact group, attempted to resolve this issue in the atmosphere chapter by drafting language to be inserted in the Preamble of Agenda 21, which would refer to the fact that new and renewable energy sources should always be safe and environmentally sound, as well as cost-effective. It was hoped that this general statement would obviate the need to refer to "environmentally safe and sound" energy sources throughout the text. It is possible that the Ministers' work will build upon Kjelln's proposal. THINGS TO LOOK FOR TODAY: INSIDE THE SUMMIT: The first meeting of the Earth Summit officially starts today with 28 Heads of State or Government scheduled to deliver formal statements in the Plenary in the morning and 29 Heads of State or Government scheduled for the second meeting, to be convened in the afternoon. The third and fourth meetings of the Summit will be convened on Saturday morning and afternoon, respectively. There is much speculation as to what parallel process will be put in place to provide a forum for the continued ministerial-level negotiations surrounding those issues which the Main Committee was unable to resolve. Some suggest that forest, finance and atmosphere ministerial contact groups may in fact be convened in parallel to the actual Summit proceedings. The results of these ministerial contact groups will be tabled directly to the final session of the Plenary, which will be held on Sunday morning to formally adopt all of the Conference documents. It is likely that this final Plenary will provide little or no time for substantive discussion. All consultations are expected to be completed by Friday evening to allow sufficient time for translation and photocopying before Sunday's Plenary. OUTSIDE THE SUMMIT: Look for increasingly limited access for NGOs and press at RioCentro today and throughout the remainder of the Earth Summit. Members of the UNCED Secretariat have indicated that yesterday's youth demonstration may lead to stricter security measures. This demonstration, which followed the youth statement in Plenary, resulted in the removal by UN Security of eight people, the revocation of many passes and a broken glass door. The demonstration had been called to draw attention to the resignation of a youth representative on the US Delegation. It was fueled by the fact that the transmission of the youth statement to monitors in RioCentro had been cut. The press, in their zeal to cover the unfolding story, only exacerbated matters according to several UN Security officers. The Earth Summit Bulletin is published by Island Press and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and distributed free of charge to the participants at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. Funding for preparation and distribution of the Earth Summit Bulletin has been provided by AT&T Easy Link Services, the Ford Foundation, The Compton Foundation, the W. Alton Jones Foundation, the C.S. Mott Foundation, Swedish UNCED Secretariat - Ministry of Environment, Norwegian Ministry of the Environment, The World Bank, GREENWIRE, Jenifer Altman Foundation, United Nations Development Programme, The Canadian Purple Martin Fund and World Wide Fund for Nature. This issue of Earth Summit Bulletin is prepared by Johannah Bernstein ([email protected]), Pamela Chasek ([email protected]) and Langston James Goree VI "Kimo" ([email protected]). Earth Summit Bulletin can be contacted at: RioCentro Exhibition Hall #53, phone (021) 443-1149, E-mail [email protected]. The opinions expressed in the Earth Summit Bulletin are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Island Press, IISD or our sponsors. The contents of the Earth Summit Bulletin may be freely used in other publications with appropriate citation. The Earth Summit Bulletin is uploaded daily on the APC networks into the conference en.unced.news and the Earth Summit Information System (under "news bulletins".) -30- -Press Any Key them. David Gergen: "The president has good arguments but he allowed himself for reasons I cannot understand to be maneuvered internationally into a posture where [the U.S.] is the odd man out [the U.S.] is the caboose at the end of the train" (6/12). "Inside Washington"'s Krauthammer: "Panama was bad luck but Rio was a fiasco, because the President temporized. He should never have gone to meet them in Rio half way. He should have done what Reagan did on the law of the seas and walked out and told them to go to hell." Tom Oliphant: "As old what's-his-name said a few years ago, this is not about ideology its about competence, and the last two Bush foreign trips have featured vomit, tear gas, muddled messages and incompetent diplomacy." Mona Charen: "Here was a chance for George Bush to take his case to the American people, show real leadership, explain why he wasn't going or why he was walking out. It could have been a brilliant moment for him but it wasn't." Juan Williams said the U.S "has abdicated leadership on environmental issues We should have been able to negotiate some kind of agreement." Charen: "You cannot negotiate with thieves." Oliphant: "We insulted everybody and accomplished nothing" (6/13). Robert Novak said the impact of Bush as environmental president "was just a bunch of poll takers I don't think it helped him much in 1988" ("Inside Politics," CNN, 6/12). *12 LAST NIGHT: EARTH SUMMIT ON TV CNN "World Today" co-anchor Andrea Arceneaux led by saying delegates "to the U.N.-sponsored conference say they are focusing on the future and the task that is before them." Conference chief Maurice Strong: "The conference has clearly been a great success, but whether or not it succeeds in its purposes -- setting the planet on a new track -- remains yet to be seen." EPA head William Reilly: "My sense is that we will see something Dealy from come out of this conference very like the human rights declaration in Helsinki, it will be up to the concerned environmentalists, the publics, the [NGOs] to police this process up and to remind governments that this is the standard you set for yourself and against which you are going to be judged.' CNN noted that in London's Trafalgar Square park, Greenpeace environmental activists protested to show their disappointment with the "lack of action" shown by world leaders at Rio. Arceneaux: "They pointed their finger at British Prime Minister John Major, calling his performance at the summit 'gutless'' (6/14). ABC's Forest Sawyer led with the Summit's close: "Organizers in Rio called the Earth Summit a qualified success and hoped it would mark a new cooperation to save the planet from pollution, but underneath the optimistic talk was controversy, and sharp disagreement and uncertainty over just how much the conference really accomplished." Union of Concerned Scientists' Alden SUMMIT TO SAVE THE HAT KIND OF PLANET WILL W our children inherit? they have room to to breathe and food to eat? Will they ever see an eagle flying free or enjoy the solitude of a pristine mountain lake? Those are among the larger questions on the agenda of an extraordinary meeting of more than 100 world leaders and 30,000 other participants in Rio de Janeiro beginning June 3. The central premise of this unprecedented Earth Summit is that environmental problems can no longer be solved at the national level. Will the countries represented in Rio- notably the U.S.-show the courage and vision and leadership necessary to protect our planet for future generations? The answer is not certain, but there is some hope. V EARTH SUMMIT TO EARTH RICH VS SAVETHE ] By PHILIP ELMER-DEWITT thus setting back the cause of environmentalism. The world has changed dramatically since the HE LINEUP OF WORLD LEADERS WILL The U.S. has first Earth Summit, held 20 years ago in Stockholm 5% T include Prime Minister John Major, (and also chaired by the indefatigable Strong). That Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Prime Minister event, which launched thousands of grass-roots Kiichi Miyazawa and, now that he has conservation groups around the world and spawned of the finally made up his mind to go, Presi- environmental agencies and ministries in more world's population. dent George Bush. The Dalai Lama will than 115 nations, was held in the shadow of the cold It uses join a delegation of clerics, artists and green-mind- war, when the planet was divided into rival East and 25% ed parliamentarians. Hundreds of native leaders, West blocs and preoccupied with the perils of the from American Indians to Malaysian tribesmen, nuclear arms race. With the collapse of the East bloc of the will represent the interests of the world's indige- and the thawing of the cold war, a fundamental shift world's energy, nous peoples. Tens of thousands of diplomats, sci- in the global axis of power has occurred. Today the emits entists, ecologists, theorists, feminists, journalists, more meaningful division-especially on environ- tourists and assorted hangers-on are expected to mental issues-is not between East and West but be- 22% gather in dozens of auditoriums and outdoor sites tween "North" (Europe, North America and Japan) for nearly 400 official and unofficial events, among and "South" (most of Asia, Africa and Latin Ameri- of all them an environmental technology fair, a scientific ca). And though the immediate threat of nuclear de- CO₂ produced symposium and a meeting of mayors. Peter Max's struction has lifted, the planet is no less at risk. and accounts for art will appear on special postage stamps. A Robert While there has been some environmental prog- 25% Rauschenberg poster will be slapped up on walls. ress in individual countries, the state of the world Placido Domingo will headline a star-studded musi- has mostly gone downhill. Air pollution, a major is- of the cal tribute to the planet. And a full-size replica of a sue in Stockholm, has grown significantly worse in world's GNP. 9th century Viking ship will sail in from Norway most cities. Even more alarming, it is now over- carrying messages of goodwill from children all shadowed by broad atmospheric changes, such as over the world. ozone depletion and the buildup of greenhouse If size and ambition were the measures of suc- gases. According to the Washington-based World- cess, the United Nations Conference on Environ- watch Institute, one of the hundreds of environmen- ment and Development in Rio de Janeiro would take tal pressure groups advising the Earth Summit ne- all the prizes. The so-called Earth Summit, more gotiators, the world has lost 200 million hectares than two years in the making, will be the largest and (500 million acres) of trees since 1972, an area most complex conference ever held-bigger than roughly one-third the size of the continental U.S. the momentous meetings at Versailles, Yalta and The world's farmers, meanwhile, have lost nearly Potsdam. 500 million tons of topsoil, an amount equal to the Those summits carved up empires, drew new tillable soil coverage of India and France combined. borders and settled world wars. The agenda for the Lakes, rivers, even whole seas have been turned Earth Summit is more far reaching: it sets out to into sewers and industrial sumps. And tens of thou- confront not only the world's most pressing envi- sands of plant and animal species that shared the ronmental problems-from global warming to de- planet with us in 1972 have since disappeared. forestation-but poverty and underdevelopment as The idea behind the Earth Summit was that the well. A five-week preparatory meeting in New York relaxation of cold war tensions, combined with the City that ended last month produced 24 million heightened awareness of these growing ecological EARTH ALERT pages of documents. "It's a Herculean task," admits crises, offered a rare opportunity to persuade coun- Maurice Strong, the former Canadian oil executive tries to look beyond their national interests and In the past decade, who organized and serves as secretary-general for agree to some basic changes in the way they treat levels of stratospheric the giant get-together. the environment. The broad issues are clear: the de- ozone, which shields But with one week to go before the opening cer- veloped countries of the North have grown accus- living things from emonies, the outlook for the Rio conference is far tomed to life-styles that are consuming a dispropor- from certain. It is still possible that the Earth Sum- harmful ultraviolet tionate share of natural resources and generating mit will be one of those landmark events that the bulk of global pollution. Many of the developing radiation, have change the course of history, recasting the rela- countries of the South, for their part, are consuming declined 4% to 8% in tionship of the nations of the world not only to one irreplaceable global resources-eating the world's the northern and another but also to their environment. Or it could seed corn, as it were-to provide for their exploding southern end up to be a diplomatic disaster of global propor- populations. And both groups have as an object les- tions, driving the wedge deeper between the in- hemispheres. son the now bankrupt countries of the East bloc, dustrial countries and developing countries and whose singularly inefficient path to industrializa- 42 TIME, JUNE 1, 1992 North and South will meet in POOR Rio to confront the planet's most pressing ills. The event could change the world-or be a disaster of global proportions. tion has produced some of the worst environmental pared with the $125 billion that Strong has said the disasters the world has ever seen. developed nations will need to contribute annually The solution-at least in broad outline-is also to protect natural resources and clean up pollution. fairly clear. The nations of the world must abandon (The developing countries, he says, would have to INDIA has those practices that are self-destructive in favor of put up an additional $500 billion a year.) To put that what environmentalists like to call "sustainable de- in context, the annual U.S. defense budget is $290 16% velopment." A sustainable society is one that man- billion. "The bottom line is money," says Kamal of the ages its economic growth in such a way as to do no Nath, India's Minister of Environment and Forests. irreparable damage to its environment. By balanc- world's population. "If the West does not give funds, the Earth Summit It uses ing economic requirements with ecological con- will die a natural death." cerns, it satisfies the needs of its people without The tensions between North and South, and the jeopardizing the prospects of future generations. 3% financial conflicts that underlie them, run through A major obstacle to sustainable development in every issue before the Rio negotiators-even to the of the many countries is a social structure that gives most question of whether those are the proper issues to world's energy, of the nation's wealth to a tiny minority of its people. be discussing. Among the major disagreements: emits "A person who is worrying about his next meal is not going to listen to lectures on protecting the envi- WHO TURNED UP THE HEAT? 3% ronment," says R.K. Pachauri, director of New Del- The fact that this past winter in the northern hemi- of all hi's Tata Energy Research Institute. What to North- sphere was one of the warmest in history may be a CO₂ produced ern eyes seems like some of the worst coincidence. But most scientists agree that all the and accounts for environmental outrages-felling rain forests to smoke and fumes and exhaust that humans gener- make charcoal for sale as cooking fuel, for exam- ate will eventually alter the earth's climate. Those 1% ple-are often committed by people who have no changes could be modest. Or they could trigger other form of income. Yet if the barriers that keep of the coastal flooding, interior droughts, mass exoduses those people poor have withstood wars of liberation world's GNP. Source: World Resources Inst.; CIA and pockets of starvation. What irks some develop- and social revolutions, what are the chances that ing nations-and in particular Brazil-is that many they will fall in the name of environmentalism? people who worry about global warming point their The disparities that mark individual countries fingers at the release of carbon dioxide from the are mirrored in the planet as a whole. Most of its burning of rain forests. The bigger threats are the wealth is concentrated in the North. "The reality is CO2 and other greenhouse gases produced in the in- that there are many worlds on this planet," says dustrial countries by the burning of fossil fuels. In Chee Yokling, a Malaysian representative of per capita terms, individuals in the North generate Friends of the Earth, "rich worlds and poor nearly 10 times as much CO2 from energy use as worlds." From the South's point of view, it is the their counterparts in the South. rich worlds' profligate consumption patterns-their The problem for the long term is that people in big cars, refrigerators and climate-controlled shop- developing countries now want those consumer ping malls-that are the problem. "You can't have items that make life in the industrial world SO com- an environmentally healthy planet in a world that is fortable as well as environmentally costly-those socially unjust," says Brazilian President Fernando private cars, refrigerators and air conditioners. If Collor de Mello. Counters a U.S. representative to a per capita emissions of greenhouse gases in China presummit negotiating session: "They are trying to and India were to rise to the level of those in France, lay a collective guilt trip on us because we try to give for example, emissions worldwide would jump our people a higher standard of living." nearly 70%-making a deteriorating situation even It comes down to a matter of cash. The North has worse. it. The South needs it. And the changes that must be A treaty to prevent climate change was to be made to achieve sustainable development will not the centerpiece of the Rio summit. However, poor EARTH ALERT occur unless some of that wealth finds its way from countries didn't see why their plans for develop- North to South. So far, the industrial nations have ment should suffer in order to rectify a problem Because of drought, held pretty tightly to their purse strings. In March they did not create. Some rich nations did not desertification, the U.S. did pledge $75 million to help poor coun- want to sign on to anything that would threaten erosion and tries find ways to reduce the production of gases their life-styles or increase the cost of doing busi- population growth, that may cause global warming; and at the presum- ness. Trying to spur agreement, the European mit negotiations, there were hints from developed Community proposed cutting CO2 emissions to per capita grain nations that as much as $6 billion in debt relief and 1990 levels by the year 2000-a relatively modest production in Africa other financial guarantees might be forthcoming at reduction. But the U.S. steadfastly refused to con- has dropped 28% the Rio conference itself. But that is a pittance com- sider any such rigid deadlines. Skeptical about since 1967. TIME. JUNE 1, 1992 43 PAIR MAGNUM The glitter of Chicago NORTH Having reaped the comforts-and the ecological costs-of indus- trialization, developed nations want the South to avoid their mistakes the evidence that global warming will occur. the WHO'S POISONING THE OCEANS? SUMMIT TO Bush Administration was concerned that an arbi- Anyone who has been near the seashore lately- trary reduction in the output of CO2 would mean or listened to Jacques-Yves Cousteau on TV- SAVE THE a decline in industrial production and a loss of knows that the oceans are a mess, littered with jobs-a particularly unappealing prospect in an plastic and tar balls and rapidly losing fish. But election year. the garbage dumps, the oil spills, the sewage dis- EARTH The climate-change talks had just about reached charges, the drift nets and factory ships are only an impasse when committee chairman Jean Ripert the most visible problems. The real threats to the of France took it upon himself to draw up a compro- oceans. accounting for 70% to S0% of all mari- mise text liberally sprinkled with what he calls time pollution, are the sediment and contami- "constructive ambiguities." It requires nations to nants that flow into the seas from land-based roll back greenhouse-gas emissions to "earlier lev- sources-topsoil, fertilizers. pesticides and all els" by the end of the decade and report periodically manner of industrial wastes. Coral is particularly on their progress. but the target of reaching 1990 sensitive to sediment, and the reefs that fringe levels becomes merely a voluntary goal. That Asia, Australia and the Caribbean-and provide a seemed to do the trick. Despite loud protests by en- home to many of the world's fish species-are al- vironmentalists that the agreement was too weak. it ready starting to die. was adopted two weeks ago and sent on for signa- Every country contributes to the situation ture at Rio. roughly in proportion to its size. although countries 44 TIME. JUNE 1. 1992 BELIEPRESS PRESS - PECTUREGROUP GROUP The gloom of Ethiopia SOUTH Anxious to raise their populations out of poverty, developing nations feel they should not have to pay for environmental sins they did not that are leveling their forests are making the runoff trove of biodiversity and greenhouse-gas "sinks" problem especially bad. Some ocean advocates that absorb CO2 and thus help keep global warming called for a new global treaty that would deal specif- in check. To developing nations the forests are re- ically with land-based pollution. The U.S., on the sources ripe for exploitation: potential farmland, a other hand, favored strengthening existing interna- free source of fuel and a storehouse of exotic kinds tional agreements to control this pollution, particu- of wood that command high prices overseas. larly at the national and regional levels. In the end, The Bush Administration had hoped to make negotiators adopted the U.S. approach, agreeing deforestation a showcase issue going into Rio. The that countries should commit themselves to clean- presummit discussions opened with a U.S.-inspired EARTHALERT ing up the seas but that it was premature to consid- proposal for an outright ban on logging in tropical er drafting a formal global treaty. forests. But the developing countries retaliated by The smog that hangs demanding that the language cover temperate and over Athens is known WHOSE WOODS ARE THESE? boreal (northern) forests as well. The move was to local residents as Except for finances, no issue has divided North and clearly aimed at the U.S., which has strenuously re- nephos, "the cloud." South more sharply than the question of what to do sisted any scrutiny of the logging practices in pub- about the world's remaining virgin forests. At the At peak times, it licly owned ancient forests in the Pacific Northwest. heart of the debate are the tropical rain forests-and At a separate conference in Kuala Lumpur earli- contributes to an a fundamental difference in how each side sees er this month, Malaysia's feisty Prime Minister average of a dozen them. To industrial countries they are a treasure Mahathir Mohamad reiterated the developing world's deaths a day. TIME. JUNE 1. 1992 45 SUMMIT TO hard line on the issue. If the industrial nations think an international agreement to conserve imperiled the rain forests are so important for biodiversity and species and ecosystems has finally been reached. CO2 storage, says Mahathir, why don't the rich, CO2- Much of the debate in presummit meetings cen- SAVE THE creating countries pay for the service of preserving tered on the issue of who owns and controls the ge- those forests, instead of hectoring the poor countries netic information stored in those species. Tradition- not to utilize one of their few natural resources? Ma- ally, the benefits that come from genetic materials- EARTH hathir, of course, is not exactly a disinterested party; seeds, specimens or drugs derived from plants and his country has been charged with rampant overlog- animals-go to whoever finds a way to exploit them. ging in peninsular Malaysia and Borneo. Vanilla, for example, was a biological resource The lines have been so sharply drawn on all the found only in Central America. It later became an forest-protection of issues that what was originally important cash crop in Madagascar. Now a U.S. bio- intended to be a legally binding forestry convention tech company has developed a process to clone the was watered down months ago to a nonbinding vanilla flavor in a cell culture. If the firm sells the "statement of principles" that will probably be bioengineered version for less than natural vanilla adopted at Rio. Whether a full-fledged treaty will be and takes some of the market share, who will com- negotiated later is still uncertain. pensate the Madagascar farmers? Or the Central WHO NEEDS THESE SPECIES? American Indians from whose lands the genetic material originated? Not since the dinosaurs were killed off, say biolo- Earlier this year it was hoped that the Earth gists, has the world experienced an extinction Summit treaty would include a provision making genetic materials of all kinds the sovereign re- Increasing yearly source of the originating country. Nations would emissions have raised the atmospheric con- have control over who had access to their genetic re- centration of CO2 sources, and if someone else found a way to make from 327 to money from them, the originating country would FRED 354 parts per collect royalties on each sale. million. 21.9 billion metric tons The effect of such a treaty could be striking. Rather than viewing concern about endangered 16.2 billion metric tons species as a barrier that the industrial world is plac- ing in the way of progress, the developing nations might see biodiversity as a resource that, if properly inventoried and managed, could generate real in- come. The idea, says Thomas Lovejoy, a tropical ecologist at the Smithsonian Institution, is "to start thinking about the problem as a joint venture in Source: World Resources Inst which both sides have property rights." But disagreements arose in the late rounds of 1972 1989 negotiation that weakened the final text of the trea- CO₂ EMISSIONS ty. The agreement now states that the North must Estonian cement plant give the South money and technology to preserve biodiversity and that communities and indigenous "spasm" like the man-made one that will wipe out peoples should have a financial stake in conserving 10% to 20% of the earth's estimated 10 million spe- their native plants and animals. However, the treaty cies of plants and animals by the year 2020. Since at sets out no formula or mechanism for payments for least 50% of those species live in tropical rain for- the use of genetic materials. ests, past efforts to save them have run into the usu- al lines of resistance from governments in the There are scores of other issues-large and South, which resent any kind of meddling from the small-buried in the drafts of two primary Earth North. What makes the losses so unacceptable is Summit texts: a five-page "declaration" and a 600- that they are irreversible; once a species becomes plus-page "blueprint for action" called Agenda 21. extinct, it is gone forever. After years of negotiation, The shorter statement, originally called the Earth Peruvian shoreline PICTURES Growing population in coastal areas leads to more marine pollution 1980 URBAN I 617 million and destruction of coastal COASTAL habitats. Some 6.5 million POPULATION tons of litter finds its way 2000 997 million into the sea each year. Source: UN Environment Programme: World Resources Inst. 46 TIME, JUNE 1, 1992 Charter, was supposed to be a soaring preamble, along the lines of the U.S. Declaration of Indepen- In the past decade, dence. The longer agenda was supposed to specify tropical-forest area has shrunk from the problems that the world will face well into 4.7 to 4.2 the 21st century and how to pay for their solution. DANIEL DANCER billion acres Both documents will be adopted at Rio, but nei- (1.9 to 1.7 ther bears much resemblance to the original con- billion ception. After weeks of debate, the Earth Charter hectares). 42 million acres (17 million hectares) was abandoned and replaced by a woodenly written declaration filled with the kind of pious promises ("eradicating poverty," "eliminat[ing] unsustain- able patterns of production and consumption") that world leaders often make but never keep. In what is perhaps the worst example of bureaucratic obfusca- tion, the text at one point endorses the promotion of 27 million acres (11 million hectares) "appropriate demographic policies"-the nearest negotiators could come to confronting the explosive issue of population control. Agenda 21 became the main forum for North- South wrangling on every topic imaginable, includ- ing the spread of deserts, disposal of toxic wastes and protection of women's rights. In the end, the conferees were able to agree that some of these problems do need to be solved. What they still have not agreed on is the means to solve them. To bring about meaningful change in most of these areas 1970s 1980s would require overhauling the way the world does YEARLY TROPICAL business-from the laws that control international Source: World Resources Inst. DEFORESTATION trade to the financial institutions that direct the ebb and flow of capital. That is a task that the negotia- Fund" that they could help manage and control. Clear-cutting in tors have barely even begun. The donor nations, suspicious of corruption in the Washington State Much of the debate has centered on technology, governments of the South, have SO far refused to which both sides seem to agree is crucial. The Japa- budge. And since the North controls the money, its nese have already made it a national goal to develop the next generation of environmentally friendly ma- position is likely to prevail. "That's what gets my goat," says Anil Agarwal, director of the Center for chines and industrial processes-seeing this as a Science and Environment in New Delhi. "They are way that developed countries can strengthen their the environmental crooks, and they have all the le- position in the world economy. The developing na- vers of power." tions, still saddled with old, inefficient production Agarwal's comments reflect a new feistiness techniques, insist that they will never be able to among developing countries on environmental mat- curb pollution without preferential access to new ters. A coalition of them, called the Group of 77, has processes and equipment. Some experts fear that put up a remarkably united front in the Earth Sum- both sides have unrealistic expectations of technol- mit talks. Led by Indians and Pakistanis, whose lan- ogy, as if it were a magic carpet that would allow primitive societies to skip the Industrial Revolution guage skills and flair for bureaucratic nitpicking serve them well in parliamentary maneuverings, and go straight to the environmentally friendly 21st the G-77 nations have effectively resisted what they century. But after weeks of debate, negotiators were see as an effort to make them pay for the industrial not able to agree on whether what they wanted was world's environmental sins. "We may not have been technology "transfer" or technology "cooperation," able to get what we want," says India's Pachauri. never mind how to achieve them. An endangered lemur "But we can draw satisfaction from the fact that we Nor were they able to settle how Agenda 21 from Madagascar would be paid for. Any aid would logically be ad- In the past 20 years, as ministered by the Global Environmental Facility, a many as 1 million $1.3 billion fund that is run jointly by the World species have vanished Bank, the U.N. Environment Program and the U.N. from the Development Program. Environmentalists are sus- world's picious of the GEF because the World Bank, the lend- tropical ing institution through which most international aid forests. 50,000 species has been funneled in the past, has a history of invest- ing primarily in large, ecologically damaging capital projects such as jungle highways and hydroelectric dams. Developing countries resent the GEF because it is effectively controlled by the World Bank, which in 30,000 species turn is dominated by the industrialized countries. They also complain that it targets problems that the developed world cares about, such as global warm- ing and ozone depletion, rather than issues impor- tant to the developing world, including fresh-water 1970s 1980s supplies and the spread of deserts. YEARLY EXTINCTION Source: E. 0. Wilson MICKEY ANIMALS The developing nations want a separate "Green RATES TIME. JUNE 1, 1992 51 have prevented the West from ramming inequitable largely sidelined. Not only are they torn by civil SUMMIT TO and unfair conventions down our throats." strife, but they are also confronted with hundreds of The industrial nations have shown no such soli- desperate environmental crises, ranging from an SAVE THE darity. European nations, pressured by powerful outbreak of malignant tumors in the heavily con- green movements of their own, sound quite pro- taminated Silesia region of southwest Poland to a gressive on environmental issues, but they are still rash of lung, skin and eye disorders among Bulgari- EARTH not very good at enforcing their antipollution laws. an children who live near chemical plants on the Japan, stung by its image as an ecological outlaw for Danube River. Eastern Europe's governments, bare- its whaling practices and its insatiable appetite for ly able to keep their economies moving, have little raw wood, seems determined to present itself in money to clean up pollution. In presummit negotia- these talks as an environmental world leader. tions the main role of what used to be called the sec- The countries of the former East bloc have been ond world was to insist that any funds for the devel- Population: The Uninvited Guest By EUGENE LINDEN curbs the numbers. Almost all these people would live in de- veloping countries, and it is difficult to imagine how any MAGINE AN EARTH SUMMIT AT WHICH THE DELEGATES I agreement coming out of Rio could offset the negative impact were magically insulated from nationalist, religious and of this tide of humanity. cultural pressures and then told to pick one issue that had "We already have a full-occupancy planet," says Noel the most impact on the quality of the environment and the Brown, North American director of the U.N. Environment cause of sustainable development. There is little doubt what Program. Today S0% of deforestation results from population this dream conference would focus on: population. By itself, growth. If the numbers keep rising until 2050, the U.N. esti- controlled population growth will not solve the world's prob- mates, an additional 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq. mi.) of lems, but if human numbers and consumption continue to rise land will have to be turned over to farming, roads and urban unabated, there is little hope for the other creatures with whom uses. This is almost equivalent to the total size of protected we share the earth and a high probability of catastrophe for hu- natural areas on earth today. Most good agricultural land is manity itself. After years of preparation, however, the negotia- already under plow, and each year desertification, improper tors preparing the main documents for Rio have relegated the irrigation and overuse take millions of acres out of produc- issue to a few delicately worded phrases. In the draft of the Rio tion. Farms may increase in productivity, but it will be Declaration, the sole mention of population is a deliberately am- much harder to match the gains of the past, and whether ag- biguous reference to "appropriate demographic policies." ricultural output can keep pace with population is an open The problem is that the negotiators cannot operate in a question. world divorced from dogmas. In the case of discussions about Seafood will not be limitless either. Some scientists esti- birth control, the pressures came from the Vatican and funda- mate that rising demand will exceed what the oceans can pro- mentalist Muslims. Ironically, according to summit officials, duce by 20% in as little as 20 years. One sign of how badly the feminists led by former U.S. Congresswoman Bella Abzug may seas have been overfished is that populations of bluefin tuna have unintentionally aided the forces aligned against family have declined 94% since 1970. planning by pushing aggressively for a more liberal women's The world has already overshot the saturation point in its reproductive-rights agenda than the conservative cultures in ability to process many wastes. For instance, a doubling of the developing world could accept. human population would be like- Unfortunately, the summit's ca- WORLD POPULATION ly to boost the concentrations of pitulation on the population ques- 2150 11.6 in billions, nitrates in rivers 55%. Nitrates, tion will probably nullify whatever with projections 2050 10 which get into the water from air progress the conference makes on pollution and fertilizer runoff, other issues. The United Nations 2020 8.5 are among the most difficult con- Population Fund has just released taminants to remove. The chemi- new forecasts for population cals cause human diseases and growth, which have been raised promote water conditions that sharply. In 1980 the agency project- kill fish and other aquatic life. ed that the world's population, now 2000 6.3 Earth Summit enthusiasts ar- at 5.4 billion, would stabilize at 10 gue that efforts to raise incomes billion people roughly 100 years 1990 5.3 and educational levels for the from now, but the new estimates poor will have the side effect of show it surpassing 11.6 billion by lowering population growth. In the year 2150. the fastest-growing countries, And that prediction may be op- however, population increases timistic, based on the assumption 1950 prevent development by sopping that developing nations can re- 2.5 up investment capital that might duce their birthrate from 3.8 chil- otherwise improve lives. If the dren per mother to 3.3 by the year summit is to be more than a bu- 2000. If that reduced birthrate is tion will hit 12.5 billion by the mid- Source. Population Fund reaucratic sideshow unrelated to not reached until 2010, the popula- the forces threatening the globe, it will have to do more than offer dle of the next century-unless camouflaged references to the mass starvation, disease or war population explosion. 54 TIME. JUNE 1. 1992 oping nations be matched with set-asides for the tal conflict in the way man and nature measure pro- "economies in transition." EARTH ALERT gress-a conflict between economics and ecology. To The U.S.-the world's richest nation and its sin- an economist, weighing things like savings, invest- In communities near gle biggest polluter-has stood in the way of prog- ments and growth, ecological concerns are secondary Russia's Aral Sea ress on many of the most closely watched summit considerations to be factored into the larger econo- widespread use of issues. While senior officials held briefings painting metric model. Ecologists studying the complex rela- the Bush Administration as pro-environment, U.S. tionships of living things to their environment know agricultural pesticides delegates backed the status quo on one topic after from experience that treating nature like a limitless has been linked to another, insisting over and over that "the American resource leads, eventually, to irreversible collapse. esophageal-cancer life-style is not up for negotiation." In the negotiations leading up to the Earth Sum- rates seven times as Hopes for a compromise lifted briefly in late March mit, individual nations have acted like ecologists on when the head of the American delegation, Assistant great as the national external matters and economists on their own inter- Secretary of State Curtis Bohlen, announced that the nal affairs. This is, perhaps, to be expected. Making average. U.S. had reversed itself and accepted the idea that sacrifices for the good of the planet requires negoti- "new and additional finan-cial resources" would be ating away some measure of national sovereignty, needed to pay for environmental action in poor coun- something no country does with grace. tries. But Bohlen would not say how much the U.S. That is not likely to change when those 100 or SO might be willing to pledge. heads of state meet in Rio next week. If the world's en- In the end, negotiators despaired of settling vironmental problems did not get solved in two years the funding questions in advance and agreed to re- of preparatory negotiations, they can hardly be settled open the issue in Rio. Some observers think the Group in 10 days dominated by banquets, receptions and of 77 may have made a tactical blunder by pushing so photo opportunities. But it is not too late to salvage hard for financial and technical aid. Sir Crispin Tick- something of great value from the Earth Summit. If ell, Britain's former ambassador to the U.N., has the leaders who go there-and the people watching called it a "diplomatic mistake of the highest magni- them from around the world-can be convinced that tude." Others criticize the Earth Summit organizers, the crisis facing the planet is serious enough to who by putting SO many environmental problems on demand a new alliance between North and South, the negotiating table may have inadvertently ensured then there is hope that what did not get accomplished that none of them get solved. on the road to Rio may at least get started on the By linking environmentalism and development, way home. -Reported by Andrea Dorfman/New York, lan the conferees have brought to the surface a fundamen- McCluskey/Rio de Janeiro and Anita Pratap/New Delhi THE NEGOTIATIONS SCOREBOARD WHAT THEY'VE DONE CAME up with a 600-plus-page "agenda" to save the planet, with a price tag of more than AGREED, in principle, that polluters ought to bear $600 billion a year but not yet agreed on plans the cost of their pollution, that poverty ought to be for raising the bulk of the money. eradicated and that "appropriate demographic AGREED to try to roll back emissions of carbon policies" (i.e., family planning) ought to be dioxide and other greenhouse gases by the end of promoted. the decade, with the understanding that 1990 ACKNOWLEDGED that developed countries, having levels would be a desirable-but not mandatory- put more "pressure" on the world environment, target. bear some responsibility for putting it right. EXTRACTED a $75 million commitment from the AGREED to give "special priority" to the needs of U.S. to help developing countries with the effort the developing countries-without specifying to combat global warming. what those priorities might be. WHAT THEY COULD STILL DO GIVE developing nations preferential access to new, environmentally friendly technology. FORGIVE some part of the developing nations' EXTRACT a commitment of S3 billion to $6 billion $1.2 trillion debt if they set up additional nature in new funding from developed countries to help preserves in ecologically critical areas, like the pay for the environmental agenda. tropical rain forests. WHAT THEY SHOULD DO PUT an international tax on emissions of carbon BUT WON'T dioxide and other greenhouse gases. PUT strict limits on the trade of timber from the CONFER tangible value to species in biologically earth's remaining virgin forests. diverse regions by requiring payment of royalties SET up a recycling plan in every major city in the for the use of their genetic materials. world. FIND a way to put the brakes on the world's GIVE the United Nations broad powers to create an spiraling population. which will otherwise double environmental police force for the planet. by the year 2050. Official summit stamps 58 TIME, JUNE 1. 1992 SUMMIT TO SIDESHOWS GALORE SAVE THE Summiteers who find the official speeches a snooze can skip out for some EARTH rousing rhetoric, tribal wisdom and a festival of the arts. Here's a sampler. ECO-POSTERS AT RIO'S By ANDREA DORFMAN MUSEUM OF MODERN ART "AMAZON ART," Museum of Modern Art, Rio, June 5-28 This eclectic array consists of works by 26 artists THE '92 GLOBAL FORUM, Flamengo Park and other city from 14 countries who were deposited in far-flung sites, Rio, June 1-14 The largest sideshow will be an corners of the Amazon and told to use local materi- ecological Woodstock for an estimated 12,000 peo- als to depict the region's natural beauty and envi- ple from "nongovernmental organizations," includ- ronmental ills. ing environmental groups. human-rights move- ments, religious communities, women's caucuses, A MIDSUMMER-NIGHT'S DREAM IN THE AMAZON FOREST, youth associations, trade unions and alli- João Caetano Theater, Rio, May 15 to Dec. 15 In ances of indigenous peoples. this elaborate production directed by Ger- Some highlights of the agenda: an man filmmaker Werner Herzog, Puck is Open Speakers Forum, whose guest list transported to the contemporary Brazil- includes U.S. presidential candidate ian rain forest. The play opens with a Jerry Brown and former Brazilian Envi- JAMES FOR TIME Julian Naranjo, CHILE Herzog film documentary on the eco- ronment Minister José Lutzenberger, logical devastation of Kuwait. and a debate on the possible creation of c an International Green Cross. FOREST OF THE AMAZON, Municipal Theater, Rio, June 1-21 Set to music by Brazilian com- "TRANSFORMING AND RE-CREATING RESIDUES: poser Heitor Villa-Lobos, Forest of the GARBAGE MADE CLEAN," Paço Imperial, Amazon is the story of a white god- Rio, May 7 to July 5 Fifteen Brazil- dess who falls in love with a rubber ian photographers display their tapper, angering both the Ama- views of garbage: what it is, how zon tribe that adores her and the it has evolved, how it is dis- forest itself. The ballet, de- posed of, how it can be recycled. scribed by choreographer Dalal The show also features "waste Achcar as "a poetic fantasy," is an decorations" by artist Antonio João Machado, PORTUGAL expanded version of one she origi- Manuel. nally created for Margot Fonteyn. INDIGENOUS PEOPLES' CONFERENCE ON The Swatch and sweat to wear CONCERT FOR THE LIFE OF PLANET TERRITORY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVEL- EARTH, Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon, OPMENT, Kari-Oca Indian Village, Rio, May 25-30 Some Rio, June 7 Actor Jeremy Irons is the host of this 400 Indian leaders from Brazil's 180 indigenous na- charity event, which features performances by Pla- tions, as well as 200 representatives from the U.S., cido Domingo, Wynton Marsalis and other artists, 08 1st EARTH Canada, Australia, Latin America, Scandinavia, Asia as well as a fireworks display. The nonpaying public THE and Russia, are gathering at a specially constructed can watch the festivities on large screens flanking village near the Pedra Branca Forest. Besides envi- the lagoon. -Reported by lan McCluskey/Rio de Janeiro ronmental issues, the agenda includes such topics as land rights and self-government. On May 30 the trib- al leaders will celebrate the "Day of the White Man" with dance and rituals. Pierre Bernard, FRANCE ECOBRAZIL '92, Anhembi Park Convention Center, São Paulo, June 6-11 An environmental-technology TERYL INC. trade fair, EcoBrazil '92 will showcase the latest in pollution-control and other green equipment from 85 Brazilian companies and dozens of foreign firms, including Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi and Sun Electric. MUSEUM OF MODERN ART-RIO "30 POSTERS ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT," Mu- seum of Modern Art, Rio, May 29 to June 29 Leading graphic designers from 25 countries have contrib- In a TV special called One Child-One Voice, the TBS cable uted posters that portray optimistic visions of sus- network urged children to create "leaf postcards" to show tainable development. Organized by Design Rio, the their support for the Earth Summit. Millions of leaves show will open simultaneously in dozens of galler- collected by TBS and many other organizations worldwide will Jukka Veistola, FINLAND ies around the world. be hung on the giant Tree of Life in Rio. TIME. JUNE 1, 1992 59 SUMMIT TO THE BIG GREEN PAYOFF SAVE THE Who says what's good for the environment is bad for the EARTH economy? From electric cars to solar cells, products that protect the planet will earn hefty profits in the future. By MICHAEL D. LEMONICK Who wins the races to perfect and sell green technologies will depend to a great extent on who T THE FRANKFURT AUTO SHOW LAST has the edge in engineering and marketing skills. A fall, BMW unveiled its vision of the fu- But equally important may be the encouragement ture of driving. Called the E1, it is a companies get from their countries' political lead- four-seat car with a top speed of 120 ers. Governments can exert enormous influence km/h (75 m.p.h.) and a range of up to over how aggressively businesses take the environ- 250 km (155 miles). Not so swift, you ment into account. using sticks and carrots-sticks say? But this car is a clean machine: it gives off no in the form of tough standards for products and pollution that could foul the air in any way. The E1 manufacturing processes, carrots consisting of tax runs on an electric motor powered by high-energy breaks and other incentives that reward innovation. sodium-sulfur batteries. Although it takes electric- The U.S. government has, for the most part, ity to charge the batteries, the power plants can be done a poor job of spurring business to come up far from smoggy cities. with breakthroughs. In the past, federal agencies is- BMW is not alone. Just about all the world's ma- sued environmental compliance goals, like stan- jor automakers, from Citroën to Chrysler, are rev- dards for the amount of pollutants coming out of ving up to produce electric cars. They realize that in smokestacks, and then mandated the acceptable the 21st century, consumers will increasingly fa- methods for achieving the targets. There was no in- vor-and governments will mandate-technology centive to do better than the standards or to develop that preserves and protects the environment. The innovative tools for meeting the goals-tools that fortunes of companies and nations will rise and fall U.S. companies might market around the world. on how well they heed the call to save the planet. The Clean Air Act of 1990 tries to change the old The global market for environmentally friendly way of doing things; it allows companies to meet products is worth an estimated $200 billion a year, pollution goals by whatever means they can. With and has just begun to take off. Every potential inno- regard to emissions of noxious sulfur dioxide, the vation, whether a new kind of windmill or biodegrad- new law sets up a clever system in which companies able plastic made from plants, is attracting attention and utilities will be issued permits to produce cer- from companies in a host of industrial nations. The tain amounts of the gas. If a company finds ways to U.S.'s Du Pont is in a race with Germany's Hoechst produce less SO₂ than it is allowed to, it can make and Britain's ICI, among others, to develop replace- money by selling unused pollution permits to other ment chemicals for ozone-destroying chlorofluoro- firms. "This is the frontier of environmental poli- carbons (CFCS). Germany's Siemens is vying with cy," says Robert Stavins, an economist at Harvard's such firms as Amoco in the U.S. and Sanyo in Japan Kennedy School of Government. "It allows a firm to to produce cheap, efficient solar electric cells. go out and choose the best technology it can. And it EARTH SAVER If the U.S. increased average auto-fuel economy from 28 m.p.g. to 40 m.p.g., the country could ultimately save 2.4 million bbl. of oil a day (about the amount now imported) and could prevent 440 million tons of carbon dioxide (7% of current CO2 emissions) from entering the atmosphere each year BMW's E1 is a clean electric machine that could make it easier to breathe in the world's cities 62 TIME. JUNE 1. 1992 also provides an incentive to cut pollution below government requirements." Meanwhile, the U.S. is stepping up support for research into energy conservation and renewable power sources. Funding in these areas has risen from $324 million in 19S9 to $540 million this year. But the President and Congress have not shown much interest in politically tough measures such as sharply higher gasoline taxes or more stringent SOUTHERN SOU CALIFORNIA EDISON COMPANY auto-fuel-economy standards, both of which would force Detroit to design more efficient cars. In Japan furious competition among companies is the main force behind innovation, but govern- ment policies, in the form of strict antipollution laws and encouragement of technological research, are a big help. One of the government's latest initia- tives is the New Earth 21 project, which is aimed at meeting the threat of global warming. As envi- sioned by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, it will promote two activities: the develop- ment of technologies designed to reduce production earlier than most other countries-and called for a Built by McDonnell of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and 25% to 30% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by Douglas, this "dish" the sharing of those methods with developing coun- 2010. The government is investing heavily, having converts light energy tries. MITI is financing an ambitious effort to gener- spent $90 million since 1974 on development of recy- into electricity ate clean-burning hydrogen, which would not con- clable, high-efficiency batteries for electric cars and tribute to global warming, by using genetically planning annual outlays of $182 million on solar-, engineered bacteria. There are also tax breaks and wind- and wave-energy research. Last year a gov- low-interest loans available for environmentally ernment-supported, high-speed train called ICE start- sound industrial projects, and local governments ed whizzing between Hamburg and Munich. can get tax relief when they purchase electric- rath- There is action as well at the level of the Europe- er than gasoline-powered vehicles. an Community as a whole. Last January, E.C. envi- European nations are also moving to coax, and if ronment commissioner Carlo Ripa di Meana got ini- necessary force, their industries to see the potential tial approval for a tax to be levied on fuels that give profits in environmental responsibility. In France the off carbon dioxide. He figures this will eventually best example of a marketable, earth-saving technol- push the price of natural gas up about 30% and coal ogy is the TGV, a 300-km/h (186-m.p.h.) train that has 60%, increases that will spur businesses and con- won passengers away from polluting planes on the sumers to conserve energy. The E.C. has been help- Paris-Lyons run and other routes. The train, whose ing finance development of clean technologies, such operations are subsidized by the government, is now as 100%-recyclable cars and low-polluting power being considered for several routes in the U.S.-a generators, since 1987. profitable triumph for French industry. In addition, Many companies recognized long ago, without the government is laying plans for a waste tax that any nudge from governments, that respect for the will finance advanced waste-treatment plants, which environment can boost profits. In the U.S., 3M has could lead to an entire export industry. drastically reduced pollution and waste at its manu- In Britain, where the total market for environ- facturing plants and, despite the conventional wis- mental products has been estimated at $50 billion a dom that says environmentalism is a luxury, has year by 1995, the government has set up a $20 mil- steadily increased its profits. Once industrialists lion fund to support innovations in recycling, envi- think about it at all seriously, they almost inevitably ronmental monitoring and reduction of waste and see the financial advantages of investments in envi- pollution from manufacturing processes. It is giving ronmental technology, says Hugh Faulkner, execu- farmers grants of up to 50% of the cost of building tive director of the Business Council for Sustainable new slurry and silage storage facilities to cope with Development. The council was set up to advise the fertilizer-heavy farm waste. Earth Summit about industry's views on environ- Britain's National Rivers Authority has been es- mental issues. After a year's work, executives from R T H SAVER pecially active. Its interest persuaded the electron- such firms as Chevron, Mitsubishi, Royal Dutch/ ics industry to come up with a briefcase-size moni- Shell and Volkswagen agreed on a set of business By switching from tor that can be used on a riverbank to measure the principles, including the need for sustainable man- incandescent to amount of dissolved oxygen and ammonia in the agement of resources, the charging of environmen- compact fluorescent water, along with its acidity and turbidity. The au- tal costs against corporate profits, and the rule that lighting, the U.S. thority also spurred the development of a remote- polluters, not the public, must pay for cleanup. sensing water monitor, as well as an experimental could conceivably Yet even with greater industrial environmental technique that injects iron into stream beds to neu- conserve 147 billion consciousness, says Faulkner, "there could clearly tralize polluting phosphates. All three inventions be no prospect for sustainable development in ei- kWh of energy are considered good export prospects. ther the developed or the developing world without annually (equal to the Perhaps the greenest of nations is Germany, government incentives." The nations that wield output of 37 giant where commercial banks will grant low-interest those carrots and sticks most skillfully will be the loans for pro-environment projects and hotels urge power plants) and leaders of the new green revolution, and their in- guests to forgo daily towel changes to save water and thus save about $11 dustries will eventually be the ones to profit from it: energy. Environment Minister Klaus Töpfer has or- -Reporte by Helen Gibson/London, Rhea Schoenthal/Bonn billion a year on utility dered the phaseout of CFCS by next year-two years and Dick Thompson/Washington bills TIME, JUNE 1, 1992 63 SUMMIT TO THE WORLD'S NEXT BRITISH COLUMBIA Forty years ago, hectares) of trees. Vancouver Island's By 1990, how- pristine temperate ever, loggers had SAVE THE TROUBLE SPOTS rain forest, one of clear-cut more the few left any- than half the where in the world, prime timberland EARTH and report cards for major countries on held 4.2 million The rest could be acres (1.7 million gone in 25 years. 1m Population Safe Drinking Protected FLORIDA POLAND Carbon Emissions Growth Water Lands The barrier reef that The Dunajec valley forms the Florida is famous for its Keys-which is a scenery and medieval U.S. marine sanc- castles. In 1976 the tuary-is dying at a government began REPORT CARD FOR NORTH AMERICA THE ALPS rate of 4% to 10% building a dam at They are scarred a year. The biggest Czorsztyn to provide by roads, railways, U.S. F B A A threats are agricul- cheap electricity and 40,000 ski runs tural runoff, sewage, control flooding and 12,000 lifts Construction will Canada F B A B coastal erosion, and cable-car end in 1995. Sci pollution-related lines. Native diseases and warmer entists say the dam's plants are dying, water temperatures. projected benefits acid rain blights are unrealistic. Two the forests, the nature reserves and BELIZE air is laden with part of a national The 140-mile (220- Marine biologists carbon monoxide, lobster, conch and park have already km) coral reef off fear that snorkelers other prized species. COSTA RICA and mudflows been destroyed. and avalanches Belize is healthy now, and scuba divers Sewage runoff from The government but the country's are damaging the resorts and pesticide wants to dam the are commonplace. booming tourist coral. Overzealous Pacuare River for a Preparations for and fertilizer industry could cause fishermen may be residues have hydroelectric plant the Winter Olym- irreparable harm. pics in Albert- depleting the spiny also taken a toll. in order to satisfy ville made the Costa Rica's energy problems even needs, which are worse. ECUADOR rising about 10% a Oil exploration and of its most threat- 30,000 acres year. But the project, drilling in the 1.6 ened. Cuyabeno's (12.100 hectares) which would begin million-acre (656,000- diverse wildlife has been cleared operating in 2005, BULGARIA hectare) Cuyabeno includes pink for access roads and would flood 3,000 The nuclear power leaks. Reno- National Park have dolphins, harpy subsistence farming, acres (1,200 hec- plant at Kozlodoy, vations could cost turned Ecuador's eagles, jaguars and several oil tares) of forest, dis- called "the most $1 billion, but the largest protected and 10 species of spills have been place numerous dangerous in the government can- ecosystem into one primates. About reported. Indians and destroy world," has been not abandon the a world-class white- plagued by fires, plant: it supplies water run. technical failures 40% of Bulgaria's and radioactive energy needs. KEY TO REPORT CARDS Per capita CO₂ emissions, 1989 BLACK SEA A Less than 1 metric ton B I-5 Increasing pollution through some of fallout from Cher- CHILE in the more than 60 the world's grimiest c 5-10 nobyl. The sea's oxy- ARGENTINA Pangue, a $470 rivers and streams areas, picking up gen layer is thinning, D 10-15 The Atlantic coast F More than 15 million hydro- that feed into the oil, lead and other seals and dolphins electric plant to of Patagonia is Black Sea is having toxic materials, as are disappearing, be built on the increasingly vul- devastating effects. well as fertilizer and algae blooms Population growth, 1985-95, Bío-Bío River, nerable. Squid The rivers flow residues and nuclear are more frequent. annual averages seems relatively fishing is depleting A Less than 0.5% food stocks vital to innocuous. A mere B 0.5%-1% marine life. Oil 1,000 acres (405 c 1%-2% leaked from tankers hectares) of scrub- D 2%-3% and fishing boats, BOTSWANA and pastureland F More than 3% as well as plastic The vast Okavango will be flooded, and the wildlife is netting, is wreaking REPORT CARD FOR River delta shelters % of population with access to havoc on penguin some of Africa's last not in danger. But colonies. Last year LATIN AMERICA safe drinking water free-roaming herds Pangue is just one A 100% of five new power just one spill killed of elephant, Cape Argentina B 90%-100% stations planned at least 16,000 buffalo and zebra. for the Bío-Bío, penguins. On land, C 80%-90% B C F D But the fragile eco- and authorities weak hunting laws system could be D 70%-80% also hope to erect have endangered hurt by a plan to F Less than 70% Brazil the guanaco, a dredge more than a massive dam cousin of the An- % of total area of country that will swamp B dean llama; the C B 23 miles (37 km) F of river at the that is protected, 1990* nearly 11.860 acres (4,800 hec- Patagonian rhea, delta's southern end. A 10% or more a relative of the Mexico Officials claim that ml B 7.5%-10% tares) of land. En- ostrich; and the C 5%-7.5% B the water is needed vironmentalists Magellanic fox. D D D for the town of D 2.5%-5% say the river could Maun. But critics say become uninhabit- F Less than 2.5% Venezuela the project is really able, and altered *Grades adjusted upward for countries B aimed at expand- with more than 30% wilderness. water flows may D C A ing Botswana's cause erosion. diamond mines. SIBERIA CHINA NEPAL Nearly twice the panies. Environ- The Three Gorges Foreign trekkers have REPORT CARD FOR EUROPE size of the Amazon mentalists, on the Dam on the Yangtze long discarded trash jungle, Siberia's other hand, fear River was approved along Himalayan Britain C A A A coniferous forests that clear-cutting last month. It will trails. The route from contain about 25% will inhibit the take up to 18 years Lukla to the Mount France C A A B of the world's wood. forest's ability to to build and could Everest base camp is Government plan- regenerate itself provide China with $0 littered with multi- Germany D A A A hers hope to expand and increase soil 17,680 megawatts colored toilet paper logging through erosion, sending of power. But the that it seems ablaze Netherlands C B A B joint ventures with cascades of silt into dam could cost with flowers. The base foreign timber com- fish-filled rivers $20 billion, and camp is strewn with Poland D B C C its reservoir will plastic containers, probably uproot cans and batteries. Romania C A B F PERSIAN more than 1 million The government can- GULF people. Critics say not afford to do much Russia D B A D About 8 million bbl. the dam will also to control the litter. of oil was dumped trap silt, flood a Several international Spain C A A C into the gulf during scenic valley and groups recently last year's war. Long possibly cause launched a $1 million Sweden C A A c stretches of Kuwait's upriver flooding. cleanup of Mount coastline are still Everest. suffering from the assault. In some areas, the number JOHNSTON ATOLL of sand-dwelling A tiny coral island stockpile of chem- animals has plum- 700 miles (1,125 km) ical weapons. The meted from hun- west of Hawaii, John- facility has been dreds of thousands ston Atoll is a U.S. closed more than to less than a hun- national wildlife ref- 45 times in the dred. Self-sealing uge. It is also the site past two years oil lakes still blan- of the $240 million because of faulty ket the desert, Johnston Atoll Chem- operations. The smothering veg- ical Agent Disposal burning will con- etation, birds and System, designed to tinue at least insects and re- burn America's aging until August 1994. leasing clouds of toxic fumes. INDONESIA MALAYSIA Although Indonesia REPORT CARD FOR INDIA Sarawak provided still has 10% of the The $10 billion a third of the world's tropical ASIA AND OCEANIA Narmada Valley world's tropical forests, more than AUSTRALIA Development Plan timber in 1989. Tasmania's Tarkine Australia 2.2 million acres is an irrigation At current logging (890,000 hectares) Wilderness is F and hydroelectricity are cut every year Australia's largest C NA rates, its virgin B scheme along the forests could van- for wood pulp and remaining tract of Narmada River. If ish by the year temperate rain China plywood. In Kali- completed, it will 2000. About mantan, a prov- forest. But miners 8 million indig- B include more than and loggers have C D F ince on Borneo, 3,000 dams, displace enous people logging fires and infiltrated the area, as many as 100,000 have had their coal mining have and vacationers in India people, submerge lives disrupted by devastated SO four-wheel-drive floods and mud- vehicles have A forests and farms, D D much forest that D and increase the slides triggered local environment- carved up the sand river's salinity and by the logging. alists call it a lost dunes. The Aus- Indonesia sediment load. The erosion has cause. Now at risk: tralian Conservation also dumped silt the extensive for- Foundation hopes A C F B and pollutants ests in Irian Jaya, to make the area a into two-thirds of the western half national park. Iran Sarawak's rivers. of New Guinea. Years of over- MADAGASCAR grazing by cattle B D C D A virtual laboratory of and sheep, as well ETHIOPIA evolution, Madagascar as growing numbers Israel Since 1900, Ethio- is populated by at REPORT CARD of rabbits and feral pia's burgeoning least 150,000 species FOR AFRICA horses, is causing c c B A population has found nowhere else central Australia's stripped more than in the world. The Angola arid zone to ex- Japan 90% of the country's island is home to forests for firewood 25% of Africa's A D F F pand toward the coast. At least half C A NA. C and farmland, allow- plant species. Shy the region's ing 1 billion tons primates called Egypt mammals, includ- Malaysia of topsoil to wash lemurs live deep in away every year. the forests; new spe- B D C F ing the desert bandicoot and the B D D D Some 8,000 acres cies are still being lesser bilby, are (3,200 hectares) of discovered. About Ethiopia already extinct, Philippines the once fertile 80% of Madagascar's highlands can no A D F C and the rest are rain forests have threatened. A D C F longer bear crops, already been cut to and an area the make charcoal and Kenya Thailand size of Switzerland clear land for farm- may be bare rock ing and ranching If A F F c B C C B by 2010. Destruction the current rate of of the watershed deforestation con- South Africa Turkey may also have con- tinues, Madagascar TIME Graphics by Nigel Holmes tributed to floods will be stripped C D NA C Text by Andrea Dorfman in the Sudan. Report-card research by Deborah Wells B c c F bare in 35 years. Sources: U.N. Development Programme: U.N. Population Fund: World Resources Institute Newsweek The Future SOUTH AMERICA Custodian of world's NORTH AMERICA AUSTRALIA largest rain forest. Trying Wealthy and profligate, its Heartland threatened by to escape poverty with slow-growing population overcuitivation. rapid industrialization. takes the lion's share of Ambitious goal of 1 billion Poo world resources. new trees by 2000. bab will ANTARCTICA Suffers an 020ne hole each summer, a result of industrial pollution. The few humans there leave piles of garbage. is Here the world's leaders meeter for ther THE summits Their mission fosate THE AFRICA Poorest and fastest- TOU? growing. 9.9% of babies die. Population will double in 23 years. EUROPE Affluent population, which will double in 338 years, takes large share of world resources. O ASIA From Calcutta's misery to Tokyo's affluence, resources are stressed; population will double in 39 years. PHOTO BY PENNY GENTIEU. GROOMING BY MARIA BEREL SPECIAL REPORT Earth at the Summit Live from Rio, next week's global gathering will be part carnival, part propaganda-fest and a real test for the new world order he future of the global eco- and gatherers, housed in their own village T system: it's the most important constructed by Amazon tribe members. issue in the world today, so Even before it's been held, Sen. Al Gore, naturally it merits the world's Democrat of Tennessee, proclaims Rio "a biggest meeting. The world is success simply because it has focused the awash in special-interest catas- attention of world leaders on the nexus trophes, but the environment between development and environmental is bigger than any of them, because no protection and the new dimensions of the matter what your cause-Kurdish inde- global environmental crisis." In short, it pendence or national health care or the will produce enough portentousness to fill underclass-it won't matter if the environ- every installment of "Nightline" between ment collapses, taking the world's econo- now and the Democratic convention. Who my with it. Which is why for the first time could be against that? Not Jay Leno. in this century, a summit conference will The United States alone will be sending convene next week in Rio de Janeiro to an official delegation of around 300, expect- discuss an issue other than war or the econ- ed to be headed by Environmental Protec- omy, and it will attract leaders of virtually tion Administrator William Reilly. That every nation on earth. There are countries counts the congressional "observers," led without armies, but none without land; and by Gore and Rep. Dante Fascell, Democrat there are people with no mon- ey, but none who don't eat. The Rio meeting (officially, the United Nations Conference What'son the Table on Environment and Develop- ment) will be bigger than intendeditocumb any ordinary summit, in part because it will also have rock emissions of greenhous -principally concerts. It will have T shirts, carbondioxide burwithout specificitargets.or a poster by Robert Rauschen- timetables. berg and souvenir personal ultraviolet-exposure monitors. Agenda 21 Aplan-for the 10 It will have a whole paral- lel conference for nongovern- (U) countries their economics mental organizations, a catego- the ry including environmental planet's Its Imatedicost Vear groups, human-rights groups and groups of people temporar- adiversity Milienty ily out of power in their own end homelands, such as Kurds, Ti- betans and Democrats. The watties E Earth Summit even includes "indigenous people," who will and assemble for the first-ever world conference of hunters 20 NEWSWEEK JUNE 1, 1992 While the global poor go to bed hungry, the excesses of the wealthy go up in smoke. Can the planet continue to support such a dichotomy? And should it? BILL WILCOX-GAMMA LIAISON (LEFT). RAINER UNKEL-SABA of Florida, but not the visit by President Bush himself, plus however many aides it takes to push him on the airplane and make him go. For a long time the Environment President seemed unable to make himself attend the environmental summit. His di- rector of the Office of Management and Budget, Richard Darman, treated the invi- tation to Rio the way people react to a post- card urging them to call a 900 number and find out which of three prizes they've al- ready won. Almost alone among major na- tions, the United States retains a substan- tial constituency that is indifferent if not hostile toward environmental regulation -an attitude oddly shared by the GOP right wing and the leaders of the former commu- nist bloc. But this is increasingly a fringe position even among many of the business executives it is supposed to benefit. The Business Council for Sustainable Develop- ment, which will play a prominent role in Rio, includes the heads of global cor- porations like Dow Chemical, Du Pont, Chevron and 3M, and is chaired by Swiss industrialist Stephan Schmidheiny, heir to a substantial fortune made in the asbes- tos trade. Dow CEO Frank Popoff's rallying cry-"There can be no economic develop- ment without environmental responsibili- ty"-wouldn't fit on a T shirt, but it ex- presses the view of many economists. In the end, Bush sided with EPA chief William Reilly and national-security adviser Brent Scowcroft, who argued that it would be ma- jor embarrassment for the leader of a new world order to skip the meeting at which that very thing will actually beshaped. As Gore observed, the Earth Summit is imbued with a powerful sense of destiny. The leaders of more than 120 nations are not gathering merely to codify regulations about air pollution and toxic dumps. You don't need a summit conference for that; the Montreal treaty of 1987, which phased out the future production of chlorofluoro- carbons, set a model for efficient interna- NEWSWEEK : JUNE 1, 1992 21 ORT separate the future habitabil- Six Who Can Make a Difference ity of the planet from the cur- rent distribution of wealth." Speaking for many poor countries, "the Chinese have GEORGE BUSH MAURICE STRONG made the choice that if there By holding out, he will The organizer of the is a decision to be made be- probably get what he Earth Summit, a Canadi- tween development and en- wanted: a treaty on an-born oil millionaire, vironment, they'll go for de- greenhouse gases with- says Rio will show wheth- velopment," says a Western out any specific targets er the world is "ready to diplomat in Beijing. "If the for reducing them. LARRY DOWNING make the tough choices." West wants a better environ- JOHN ABBOTT NAWAZ SHARIF ment, they'll have to pay." If NOBORU TAKESHITA the West doesn't want China to The prime minister of Japan's former prime burn its coal, the West can pay Pakistan speaks for the minister believes indus- for the alternatives. If the alter- developing nations, trial countries have an natives involve technology that which are demanding obligation to help the the Chinese don't have-more help from the West as the Third World develop in efficient electrical generating price of conservation. A.T.-SYGMA responsible ways. plants, say-the West should ATLAN-SYGMA NARASIMHA RAO provide it. That is the proposal STEPHAN SCHMIDHEINY at the heart of Agenda 21," the India's prime minister The Swiss industrialist, other substantive document will seek advanced tech- who heads the business that may (or may not) be adopt- nology, but resist "arm- delegation at Rio, be- ed at Rio. It calls, in 800 sober twisting" from the West, lieves that economic and pages, for an ambitious pro- which has yet to clean its environmental concerns gram of aid intended to fix the own house. PAONI-SABA "cannot be separated." Third World's sewers, clean its REUTER dumps and replant its forests— all well within the reach of cur- tional cooperation in this area. There is rent technology. The lives of Rio Declaration. This began as a visionary millions of children who now die of simple one substantiv regulatory treaty on the ta- statement about stewardship and environ- ble at Rio, dealing with action to head off intestinal infections would be spared. mental responsibility. Maurice Strong, sec- From the environmental point of view this global warming (page 24), but delegates retary-general of the conference, wanted a are still tinkering with some of the details. may seem at first like a mixed blessing, but short and inspirational document, some- the experience in developed countries is Many feel that to have much effect, the thing that could be hung in a child's bed- that once people assume that their babies treaty should incorporate specific targets room. A Third World delegate responded will grow up, they don't have so many of for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, that most of the children in his part of the but the United States, which leads the world them. And the world will enjoy the pre- world didn't have bedrooms. So the decla- sumed benefits of higher standards of liv- in the production of carbon dioxide, is op- ration evolved into a lengthy charter spell- ing: the people of developing countries posed. The outlook is bleaker for proposed ing out the "rights" of poor countries to might someday look at a tree the way peo- treaties on preserving forests and "bio- develop in responsible ways. This, of ple do in Marin County, as the handiwork diversity"-a wide range of species— course, is one of the things Darman warned of God, rather than a big piece of firewood which are hung up on issues of national SOV- Bush about: it's ecospeak for "foreign aid." stuck in the ground. ereignty. Countries without much industry Essentially, the Third World wants the Can we afford to do it? The estimated cost don't like outsiders telling them what to do West to save it from the consequences of is $125 billion a year, which is three times with their own trees, or, for that matter, fun- industrialization. The corollary is that gi. At the same time, though, the combined foreign-aid budgets of the otherwise the trees of Peru and Group of Seven. But, to look at it another they want to share in the profits Indonesia will go the way of the way, it is only 1 percent of the same coun- that come from exploiting these ones of Woodside, Queens. tries' gross national products. To ask the resources. Should Madagascar, Nobody was thinking about question is to hear Al Gore respond, well, say, royal on a drug made these questions when the West Bryant, can we afford not to do it? There are from a plant that is found only in had its Industrial Revolution- all sorts of sound, common-sense reasons its forests? What if the drug is that's how it got SO rich. Now it for investing in the environment. "Effi- then synthesized abroad? wants the rest of the world to ciency [in using natural resources] keeps ut this doesn't mean GOOD NEWS follow different, more strin- companies competitive," says the Business gent, rules. This is the global B that nothing impor- Drift.nets.kit Council. "There are substantial [economic] application of the well-known costs to ignoring the environment," chimes tant will go on in Rio. 200,000'sea phenomenon that one's will- in EPA chief Reilly. But there are sound, It just will go on at a ingness to make "sacrifices" higher plane of gen- common-sense reasons for doing a lot of for the environment goes up erality. The overlooked word in things that the country never gets around in proportion to the number of to doing. So we should set above them the the conference title is "Devel- Volvos one already owns. Rio, other reason for doing everything we can to opment." The Third World has says American environmental- its own agenda for the Earth preserve the global ecosystem, which is ist Lester Brown of World- Summit, which is contained in that the lives of billions of people, our own Watch Institute, will demon- included, may depend on it. part in a document called the strate that "we can no longer JERRY ADLER with MARY HAGER in Washington 22 NEWSWEEK JUNE 1, 1992 Green, Greener, Greenest Countries vary markedly in their stewardship of the environment-their own and the world's. NEWSWEEK rates 30 on three measures that strongly affect the planet's health. A is good; an X is bad. Bangladesh: No primary rain forest Japan: Fourth highest greenhouse left, causing killer floods. 97% of rural emissions. Traffics in endangered dwellers have no sanitation. wildlife. Energy efficient. Brazil: Sixth highest per capita Kenya: Little safe drinking water out- greenhouse emissions. Dropped side cities. Trying to save wildlife. 6.7 some deforestation subsidies. children per woman. Canada: Poor energy efficiency. Con- Madagascar: Huge deforestation cerned over acid rain, but continues rate. Little safe drinking water. 6.6 to burn coal without stack control. children per woman. China: Third highest greenhouse Malaysia: Huge deforestation rate, emissions, 9.1% of world total. Heavy mostly for export to Japan. Has lost forest loss, choking urban pollution. half its wetlands in last century. Congo: Little safe drinking water. 68% Mexico: Horrible air and water pollu- of rain forest scheduled for clearing. tion. Clears 1.5% of fast-disappearing 5.8 children per woman. forests per year. Costa Rica: Pioneer in protecting Nigeria: Complete deforestation ex- biodiversity and forests. 3.3 children pected by 2000. Little safe water out- per woman. side cities. 6.5 children per woman. Czechoslovakia: Highly polluted cit- Norway: Waterways and forests ies and water: 90% of all wells in the harmed by acid rain.Poor commer- countryside are contaminated. cial energy efficiency. Egypt: Hefty pesticide subsidies Philippines: Severe deforestation cause chemical-related deaths and causes killer floods and will leave no pollution. 4.4 children per woman. virgin forest by 2010. Ethiopia: Loses 1 billion tons of top- Poland: Extremely polluted. Dumps soil per year to overcultivation. Little 20 million tons of toxic waste every clean water. 7.5 children per woman. year into unregulated sites. France: Reliance on nuclear power Saudi Arabia: A leading opponent of cuts greenhouse emissions (1.5% of climate treaty. 7.1 children world total). 1.8 children per woman. per woman. Germany: Acid rain decimating for- Thailand: Lost 45% of forest from ests. 35,000 abandoned toxic-waste 1961 to 1985. Lead poisoning rampant sites. High energy efficiency. in Bangkok's children. India: Fifth highest greenhouse emis- (ex-)U.S.S.R.: Second highest green- sions. Almost all primary rain forest house emissions, 13.6% of total. Tons gone. 3.9 children per woman. of toxics dumped on land and sea. Indonesia: 10,000 miles of coral reef United Kingdom: Has led fight for cli- being destroyed. Pilot project to pro- mate treaty. Improved energy effi- tect species-rich wetlands. ciency 30% since 1970. Israel: Pioneered solar energy and United States: Highest greenhouse desert agriculture. 2.9 children emissions, 17.8% of world total. Sub- per woman. sidizes deforestation. Italy: Severe pollution of Adriatic. En- Zaire: Among 25 worst nations in ergy efficient. 1.3 children per wom- providing safe drinking water. 6.1 an. Dumped toxics in Nigeria. children per woman. NEWSWEEK : JUNE 1, 1992 23 SPECIAL REPORT A House of Cards Bitter and confusing, the debate over the greenhouse sheds more heat than light. The science is shaky but there's reason to act anyway TOM STEWART-STOCK MARKET Surprise: While the globe warmed, icy glaciers on Greenland also expanded, confounding assumptions about the planet's climate BY GREGG EASTERBROOK "The year 1990 was, of course, just the latest' warmest year on record'," says Sen. Al Gore (Democrat of Tennessee) in his book Earth in the Balance," which calls the greenhouse effect "the O more, it seemed, would winter be punctuated by the most serious threat that we have ever faced." N crunch of snow underfoot. Global temperatures had Hot compared to what? The "record" greenhouse proponents reached record highs. The worst seemed confirmed cite goes back only to 1880, when systematic preservation of when an expert at England's staid Royal Meteoro- weather data began. It turns out that 1880 was a cold year. Earth logical Society declared that a greenhouse effect had could experience "record" warmth and still remain cool com- begun. The earth would heat irreversibly. pared with most of its past. Even after the 1980s warming, glob- Disaster scenario for the 21st century? No, histori- al temperatures still run 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit lower than cal footnote. This happened 50 years ago. through most of the period of civilization. There was a global-warming scare in the 1930s. Starting around 1500, temperatures declined in Then, as now, temperatures rose for several years an event called the Little Ice Age. For three centuries running. Then, as now, scientists speculated that arti- winters were harsh and harvests uncertain; the ca- ficial carbon dioxide was the culprit; that the future nals of Holland froze. Around 1850 temperatures be- could only be hotter. gan to rise again. Thus when dawned this century of Immediately it got cold. From 1940 through the industrial sprawl, the climate was already warming 1970s global temperatures declined, hitting bottom on its own. during the frigid winter of 1976-77. Environmentalists About 1950, emissions of greenhouse gases took declaimed that an ice age was beginning. Immediately it got hot. Through the 1980s one warm GOOD NEWS off. The warming rate, which should have escalated, Brazil cut promptly slowed. Pat Michaels, a climatologist at the year followed another. Some of the same voices that University of Virginia, says, 'Every annual high since had cried ice age began to proclaim global warming, subsidies.for 1950 falls below the trend of the natural increase" and this time the idea stuck. In Rio, the world's leaders ranching in happening anyway when the big emissions began. will sign a treaty which formally certifies the notion that a dangerous global warming is in progress. the jungle A net advance of about one third of 1 degree is what made the 1980s the hottest decade "on record." The Rio treaty is an important step, though for now Tewer Some researchers believe that amount is within the reasons tangential to the current warming scare. For acres are standard deviation, or natural variability, of the much as the greenhouse effect exists in the popular imagination, there is little evidence it has manifested doomed weather. In other words the warm 1980s might be an omen. Or mean nothing whatsoever. in "the laboratory of nature." Consider: Despite these conflicting signals, global warming is 24 NEWSWEEK : JUNE 1, 1992 S A L R -] not an incomprehensible realm. Sense can be made of the subject Because of such limitations, when global climate models by examining its three components: greenhouse science, green- are run in reverse, they fail to "predict" the present. Researchers house economics and greenhouse politics. who have set GCMs to the conditions of 1880 find the models True Believers and Other Scientists say global temperatures should by now have risen as much as 5 degrees. But the actual increase over the last century is at lobal warming has already arrived, in disastrous most 1 degree. G ways, in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. At the Climate modelers know about such problems, and "tune" National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in their computers to compensate. James Hansen, director of a idyllic Boulder, Colo., the greenhouse effect has struck NASA-affiliated GCM project, reports that his model is suffi- hundreds of times. ciently tuned that, run in reverse, it now predicts only twice The center operates one of the world's leading General Cir- as much warming as has actually been observed. This may culation Models (GCMs), computers that still sound worthless; in fact it's a signifi- simulate the human trespass on the atmos- cant step toward a climate model that can phere. When technicians run the GCM, be trusted. they get bad news. Computers predict that PRESENT DOUBLED CO2 Hansen put his reputation on the line by a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide- doing something modelers dread-making likely for the next century, without ad- a testable prediction. His computer thinks vances in energy efficiency-will warm the global temperatures will decline about 1 earth from 3 to 9 degrees. The long end of degree during 1992, because the eruption the prediction would be calamitous. Most of Mount Pinatubo pumped enough pollu- scientists who work with GCMs are green- tants into the air to interfere with sunlight house true believers. reaching earth. When last winter was When news reports say there is a scien- warm, modelers braced for embarrass- tific consensus that the earth will warm, TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS ment; but a late spring followed, so the what they mean is there is agreement that prediction may rally. The bottom line on computers predict a warming. This is dif- 1992 will help determine whether GCMs ferent from saying that experts believe ocording to the can align with reality. global warming will happen. On the ques- Computer models must contain assump- tion of what will happen, the only scien- tions about how earth's climate operates. tific consensus is that the sky will re- But the level of all ecological knowledge is main blue. primitive, and climate is no exception. The most important documents in the Till recently researchers assumed that greenhouse debate, a series of statements water in the air behaves the same whether from the U.N.-affiliated Intergovernmen- it is suspended as vapor or ice crystals. tal Panel on Climate Change, rely on com- Then experiments showed there is a big puter models. IPCC reports were the cen- difference between the two states. When terpiece of negotiations on the Rio climate the British Meteorological Office adjusted treaty. Within the technical sections can be its GCM to take this into account, the found many arguments against a green- predicted greenhouse bad news declined house emergency. But the IPCC "policy- from about 10 degrees to about 3. maker's summary," the only section politi- Most scientists assumed that sulfur diox- cal leaders ever glance at, concentrates on ide, which causes acid rain, is also a green- the gloomy predictions of the GMCs. So house gas. But new research shows it is what are the chances the models are right? actually a coolant. Sulfur forms what The most basic distinction in greenhouse science is between might be called a smog mirror, increasing the sunlight reflected weather and climate. Weather is what happens today; climate is back into space. what happens over the next century. Last winter was the warmest As recently as last summer the chemicals that deplete the ozone in a century in North America. It also snowed in Israel. These facts layer, CFCs, were considered potent global-warming agents. Sci- reveal nothing other than that the weather is changeable, some- entists were "certain" of this. Then researchers discovered that thing known to Ben Franklin. CFCs cool the air just as much as they warm it. Most weather variations are essentially meaningless minor Science traditionally thought the energy output of the sun-the oscillations of a vast, complex system whose basic parameters are driving force of climate-absolutely invariant. Satellite measure- still only crudely understood. Weather-forecasting computers can- ments begun about a decade ago show this is not the case. The sun's not project what the temperature will be next week; imagine production varies slightly from year to year, according to Judith trying to predict temperatures for the next century. Lean, an astronomer at the Naval Research Laboratory. Because the biosphere is vast and complex, even advanced Shortly after George Bush took office two credentialed scien- computers can deal with it only in approximations. When the tists, Robert Jastrow and William Nierenberg, began to argue that climate model at NCAR prints out an image of the globe, Japan the newly discovered solar variations explain recent temperature and the United Kingdom are absent. These nations are too small to trends. They had considerable influence on the White House, fit under the model's "resolution limit." particularly on former chief of staff John Sununu, a greenhouse Another problem is that even the best temperature records are agnostic. Hansen of NASA then demonstrated that a temporary fuzzy by a few shades of a degree, plus or minus. That is a tenuous cooling greater than has been observed in our sun or any similar basis on which to analyze a greenhouse effect which so far is, at star may be necessary to counter the temperature increases which worst, only slightly larger than the margin of error in the GCMs predict. Besides, what if the sun's utput goes up? That little numbers. Stephen Schneider of NCAR acknowledges, "It's possi- complication caused solar variation to fall out of favor with the ble that everything in the last 30 years of temperature records is White House as a global-warming counterbalance. no more than noise." Noise is statistician's slang for little numer- Still other questions concern the seas and glaciers. Oceanogra- ical fluctuations that don't add up to a hill of beans. phers long assumed that ocean currents are relatively stable. But NEWSWEEK JUNE 1, 1992 29 SPECIA L REPORT developments like the persistent El Niño fluctuations now suggest Greenhouse theory posits that a warmer world would hold dire that sudden shifts in the circulation of ocean water may be grem- elevations of sea levels, as glaciers melt and return their water to lins in climate malfunctions. Scott Lehman of the Woods Hole the oceans. A decade ago, 10-foot increases were commonly project- Oceanographic Institution recently published evidence that past ed for the 21st century; this amount would swamp coastal cities shifts in ocean currents have caused sea surface temperatures to and several island nations. Now the estimates are down to one to plummet 11 degrees in 40 years, an unheard-of rate. seven feet. The highest claimed actual number for sea-level in- It is an article of faith in the greenhouse community that crease during the last 100 years is 11 inches, and most researchers natural temperature movements are extremely gradual. Rapid think the real figure is much smaller. movements must be artificial and therefore pernicious because Why isn't the sea rising? Because many glaciers are growing, not they will confront the biosphere with unnatural pressure. If it melting. Researchers have identified places where ice is in retreat: turns out, instead, that rapid temperature swings do occur natu- most are tropical or relatively small glaciers that may have been rally, all greenhouse arguments may go back to the drawing board. melting since the end of the Little Ice Age. In the arctic and DESPAIR For the poor, The Seven worrying about the environment can seem a luxury. Deadly Sins In recent decades, Brazil, like many developing countries, has seen a population boom in its cities, making it more difficult to provide basic necessities like running water and sewers. Surveying scenes like this one from Rocinha, Rio's largest slum, officials might reasonably ask whether it makes sense to discuss expensive antipollution devices and the greenhouse effect when families go without food and medicine. If there is an answer, it's that despair can only make the trouble worse. JOHN MAIER Jr.-PICTUR GROUP GLUTTONY Americans can devour anything. Since Europeans first arrived in the New World, all but 5 percent of the virgin forests have been cut down. Modern timber companies typically clear-cut wide swaths through the primeval growth. In Washington state's Olympic National Forest, loggers have razed about half the original fir, spruce and pine trees, including specimens 1,000 years old. Though clearings are replanted, new forests lack the variety many animals need to survive. By 1990 dwindling habitat threatened to kill off the spotted owl, so the federal govern- ment suspended logging on many public lands. But last month KEITH DANNEMILLER-SABA Polluters will dump on the site Bush administration officials proposed opening huge tracts to TEMPTATION that offers the least resistance. In cutting. Environmentalists attacked the idea as "an extinction one U.S. government survey, four of five American plan" for the owl-not to mention the virgin forests. companies operating plants across the border in Mexico CHARLES MAUZY-ALLSTOCK admitted they were there to take advantage of weak environmental laws. Nearly half of the 2,000 American-owned plants generate hazardous waste, including PCBs. These wastes and raw sewage befoul underground aquifers and waterways like the one above, near Mexicali. Officials fear the wastes may have led to an increase in birth defects on both sides of the border. 30 NEWSWEEK JUNE 1. 1992 antarctic locations where the major ice masses reside, net glacia- explanation for the expanding Greenland glacier-that it simply tion may be increasing. A researcher named Jay Zwally surprised gotten colder in Greenland. Indeed, some data suggest that it has. the climate business two years ago by showing that the central It's colder in Greenland? Isn't the earth supposed to be warm- glaciers of Greenland have grown in the very years that global ing? Climate shifts are not uniform. There's nothing strange, temperatures got higher. except to our sensibilities, about a mild winter in Minneapolis Glaciers get bigger while temperatures get higher: impossible? while a blizzard shuts down Jerusalem. But this seems a strike No, perhaps inevitable. In the zones that adjoin the North and against greenhouse theory, which holds that warming would South poles it's so cold that snow, the raw material of glaciers, center in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Re- rarely falls. Increasing temperatures might cause more precipita- searchers generally concur that warming has favored the South- tion, but not enough additional melting to counter the buildup. ern Hemisphere. This could mean more of the world's water locked up in ice. Recently Thomas Karl of the National Climatic Data Center For his part Schneider believes there is a more straightforward demonstrated that summer and daytime highs have changed little VICTORIA IVLEVA-AGENTUR-FOCUS KAISER-GREENPEACE LONDON ADRIAN BRADSHAW-SABA The Kremlin HUBRIS No nation is In China's rush to NEGLECT thought it could boss ENVY innocent of neglect, catch up to the West, Mother Nature. In the 1960s it but East-bloc states were particularly growth was often the only thing that diverted two rivers that fed the Aral Sea guilty. Czechoslovakia and East mattered. Benxi, a city near the Korean in order to make cotton fields bloom Germany allowed virtually border, has been particularly single- on the arid lands of Central Asia. Since unchecked dumping into the Elbe River, minded. More than 200 factories spew then, the water volume of the Aral has making it one of Europe's filthiest out more than 87 million cubic meters been reduced by two thirds, stranding waterways, as bottled samples attest of gases each year, magnifying the color boats and towns. Deprived of a (above). The Elbe washed thousands of sunsets and at one time earning moderating sea, local weather is tilting of tons of heavy metals and other Benxi the title of the world's most to extremes. Storms blow salt from pollutants into the North Sea yearly. polluted city. Beijing has launched a the exposed sea bottom across the A cleanup began in 1990, but the damage cleanup campaign, but the city is still so region, causing health problems and is huge. Once used as fertilizer, Elbe smoggy that it occasionally vanishes killing the cotton fields. mud is now a hazardous waste. from satellite photos. HATRED In the heat of battle, no one stops to worry about the environment. But Saddam Hussein took spiteful destruc- tion to new lows during the gulf war. With Iraqi troops in full retreat, Saddam had nothing to gain but revenge when he ordered his soldiers to blow up more than 700 oil wells. Wellhead fires that coated the region in black smoke were doused within a year-faster than anticipated. But millions of gallons of oil spilled into the gulf, where it still threatens marine life, and spread out in huge lakes covering thousands of square miles of desert. Black muck is sinking into the sand, but some 30 large lakes remain. The oil is killing birds and insects and causing respiratory dis- eases among people living nearby. It will take years to tally the full extent of the damage-including contamination of underground water supplies, says Ibrahim Hadi, president of Kuwait's Environmental Protection Agen- cy. The overall cleanup bill-including pumping the lakes dry-could total $20 billion, and Kuwait plans to send the bill to Saddam. THOMAS HARTWELL-SYGMA NEWSWEEK JUNE 1, 1992 31 during recent decades. But winters have indeed been mild, and nighttime lows have been less low. Think of the Greenhouse as a Profit Center This esoteric finding contained something to offend everybody ere's an aspect of the controversy that drives environ- in the climate debate. Greenhouse theory suggests that warming should peak on summer afternoons: the worst time, because day- H mentalists to distraction: is global warming bad? The high range of predictions for a warmer earth would be time highs kill crops and push up energy demand. Karl's work awful. But mild warming is in society's interest, particu- suggests nature is doing the opposite. larly its economic interest. But the study may also lend greenhouse theory new impetus. No one contends that the mild warming SO far has done harm. Perhaps the gases that humans put into the atmosphere are Warmth, after all, is essential to life; as the tropical forests show, warming the earth, but that effect is "masked." During the day, nature adores warmth. Cities like London and New York may be carbon dioxide may trap heat while the smog mirror of sulfur less likely to have a white Christmas, which is sad for sentimental pollution reflects sunlight, netting no reasons. (One reason mild winters spook change. At night the heat trapping contin- many Americans is that the baby boom was ues but the reflections stop; temperatures born into the 1950s and 1960s, a period of edge upward. Perhaps greenhouse theory unusual cold and snow. Recent winters should be adjusted to predict warming at don't conform to childhood memories.) But night, exactly what Karl has found. the prime results of warming are pluses. Underlying all climate uncertainties is Here's the bottom line on the 1980s, the an ultimate question: does the greenhouse "hottest years on record": food production concept make sense? was strong. Energy consumption was soft, There's the matter of the missing carbon. winter peak demand being a key variable Human mischief puts 7 billion tons of car- in power needs. In turn, energy prices de- bon into the air annually. Yet atmospheric clined. In real terms gasoline now costs less monitors detect only half that amount. than during the 1950s, a period enshrined Where does the rest go? One possibility: in our collective nostalgia as Energy Heav- though deforestation is proceeding in some en. have a hard time following why long- places, forestation is happening in others. er growing seasons, lower energy prices Between the fast-growth "managed for- ests" for timber and the expansion of forest James director and fewer subzero days in North Dakota are the new apocalypse," says Michaels. acres in many developed countries, there (i) al ASA-amiliated If it were certain that current tempera- may be an unprecedented number of young computer temodels ture trends were natural, we might now be trees on earth inhaling extra carbon. reading stories about the wonderful global And there's the little mystery of the "feed- project sputhls warming. But the idea that clumsy human backs." Over the long term, earth's climate is tinkering with the atmosphere may inad- remarkably self-regulating. How? Maybe if ation.on Do linely vertently have done something useful- the climate warms, the air becomes more that we benefit from pollution!-is almost moist, which causes more clouds, which bounces more sunlight back to space. If the prediction too peculiar for polite discourse. In a sense, humanity flatters itself by believing it has climate cools, the air becomes dry, reducing acquired the power to disrupt nature on a cloud cover and allowing more solar energy global scale. We like to view ourselves as so in. Natural feedbacks may work in this be- mighty the very planet quakes before our nevolent fashion. Or they may backfire. Mi- inventions. It's almost annoying to hear chael Oppenheimer of the Environmental that with all our imposing power stations Defense Fund suggests warming will create a and gleaming cars and soaring aircraft, diabolical feedback in which plant decay accelerates the addition of artificial-carbon emissions are only 4 percent of the natural level. natural carbon to the atmosphere, pushing the system over the brink. Warming, of course, may not stay mild: the best reason for The inability of the science community to agree on issues as greenhouse controls. During the early Bush administration, esti- basic as whether feedbacks will be negative or positive makes mates batted around for greenhouse reductions ran from $100 Richard Lindzen, a climatologist at MIT; suspect there is a funda- billion to a mind-bending $3.6 trillion. Such calculations con- mental flaw in the global-warming concept. Lindzen calculates tained an astonishing omission. The way to control carbon emis- that in nature, CO2 exhibits only about one quarter of the power it sion is to make energy use more efficient. The big numbers took seems to possess under lab conditions. Why? into account the capital costs of new conservation technology, but Greenhouse theory presumes that warmth vents away from not the value of the fuel saved. earth's surface mainly as radiant heat-the wavy lines rising from Factor in the energy savings, the analysts Amory and Hunter a parking lot. The notion "is simply untrue," Lindzen says. Lovins showed in a landmark 1991 study, and the cost of global- Most warmth, he believes, rises through convection in blocks of warming control not only falls-it becomes possible to imagine air. While radiant heat encountering greenhouse gases may be cutting greenhouse gases at a profit. Even the National Academy trapped, convective currents blocked in one place will move else- of Sciences, often grumpy about environmental reforms, says that where, blown on the wind, till they find an "open vent" that allows the first 25 percent of greenhouse pollutants could be controlled at them to release energy upward, above the greenhouse barriers. a price equivalent to just 11 cents per gallon of gasoline. Lindzen's idea has an appealing ability to answer some puzzles Savings from greenhouse controls would not be confined to the about greenhouse theory; it also has drawbacks. Neither Lindzen specific fossil-fuel reductions at any factory, office or automobile nor anybody else can yet say exactly why the climate is what it is. that became more efficient. They would spread broadly to all That is an argument against greenhouse panic, but not for inac- energy prices, by reducing demand. tion. A principle of wisdom holds: we don't know what we don't The central reason world energy prices remain low is that fuel know. Until such time as humanity really knows what makes use has become more efficient. The U.S. economy now requires 28 climate tick, we would be fools to take unnecessary risks. And as percent less energy per dollar of output than two decades ago. the economics of the greenhouse show, insurance is affordable. Somehow the economic payoff goes unappreciated. Everyone is 32 NEWSWEEK JUNE 1. 1992 keenly aware from the 1974 and 1979 energy crunches that fuel Now Bush will go to Rio. The treaty he will sign obligates nations pricing responds faithfully to changes in supply. Constantly over- to cut greenhouse emissions, but, at Bush's insistence, does not looked is that fuel prices also follow the second half of the supply- specify by how much or when cuts must occur. Some have declared and-demand equation, responding faithfully to demand. When the compromise a hollow outrage. It's not. demand for energy moderates, prices go down. First, any action on pollution control should always be wel- After Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices spiked on the expectation comed. Second, getting on paper the need for global energy effi- that supply would be disrupted or demand would rise through ciency is a vital step. Progress may be agonizing, but most nations panic buying. Neither happened; prices rapidly fell. There was usually do respond to treaty commitments: pressure for new ener- extensive public reaction to the increase and hardly any notice of gy-conservation initiatives will grow. the decline, though the latter was far more significant. No panic Third, the Rio climate agreement will slip into international law buying occurred because, through efficiency gains, society was less the premise that nations must consider global environmental conse- obsessed about oil supplies than the last quences when making internal economic de- time around. Cheap energy used efficiently cisions. This is a powerful, progressive con- is a best-of-both-worlds situation for every- cept whose codification will pay important one except a few desert princes. environmental dividends in years to come. Currently the White House is pushing its But before you start to feel good National Energy Strategy. It contains This March the World Health Organization worthwhile provisions, yet lacks an impor- published a thick volume on global environ- tant insight: that resource conservation, mental damage. The book contains para- pollution control, lower energy prices and a graphs here and there about issues that con- hedge against global warming might be cern the affluent in the industrial North: the achieved simultaneously by a comprehen- greenhouse effect, trace pesticide residues, sive commitment to improved fuel efficien- skin cancer from sunbathing. And it goes on cy. A new program to pursue all these objec- for hundreds of pages about the environmen- tives at once would seem one of those rare tal issues that matter to the majority of the public-policy areas where the light at the world's population, such as 3.2 million chil- end of the tunnel is bright and beckoning. dren dead last year from diarrheal disease. Through the last decade greenhouse emis- Most of the deaths could have been avoided by sions have either been flat or declined safe drinking water and decent sanitation. slightly, from the effects of conservation Three million children dead, versus maybe, pursued with little encouragement from someday, another degree Fahrenheit. On the Washington. Greater gains might be had run up to Rio, the world's attention has fo- with modest incentives. cused on the hypothetical threat of global Finally, inexorably, there are the effi- warming, to the exclusion of environmental ciency requirements obliged by population menaces that are palpable and awful right growth. Consider an example offered by now-but which only affect the abstract le- William Lee, CEO of Duke Power, a North gions of the brown, distant poor. Carolina utility. Suppose that the world Among Third World intellectuals there is population stabilizes at the low end of the growing suspicion that developed countries United Nations estimate: 5.4 billion souls suddenly care about the greenhouse effect for today, it expands to 9 billion. Next, suppose selfish reasons. Global warming might affect that a majority of the world's residents property values on Cape Hatteras; unsafe wa- reach a standard of living equal to one half ter in Bangladesh will not. Energy efficiency, that enjoyed by Americans. Finally sup- supposedly a terrible sacrifice for the indus- pose that all energy uses, from factories to sports cars, grow twice tries of wealthy nations, will improve their competitiveness in the as efficient. Under these optimistic assumptions, the world will emerging global economy. need to generate three times as much power. And the capital required for greenhouse controls? The North will Seen in that light, significant improvements in energy efficiency invest this on itself, rather than sharing resources with the South are imperative whether the thermometer is going up, down or for, say, sewage abatement. Hasn't anybody wondered why a delega- sideways. tion of corporate CEOs met with Bush to ask him to back the climate The Real Problem treaty? Because they've realized greenhouse control is in their own self-interest. or two years, negotiations have progressed at the highest Ultimately all environmental protection is in everybody's self- levels of government over the climate treaty to be signed in interest. The dawning of this consciousness, once complete, will drive Rio. There has been personal lobbying between heads of great reforms yet to come. Till that day, the First World can recover state, Helmut Kohl taking a full hour with George Bush to some of its moral perspective on global warming by recognizing a link urge that the United States embrace the treaty. The Euro- between greenhouse emissions and international aid. pean Commission staked its nascent prestige on its ability to make Right now the developed nations are the big greenhouse offenders. the treaty happen. The Japanese, normally circumspect about di- But early in the next century the Third World will pass the First for plomacy, trumpet themselves as greener-than-thou on the subject. this dubious distinction. The proposed treaty has inspired wild verbiage. It's anything Once the next level of energy-efficiency improvements are accom- from a last-ditch attempt to save a dying planet to a cynical plot to plished in the North, affluent nations will approach the point of impose a socialist industrial order in the guise of climate protec- diminishing returns, after which huge investments are required for tion. Global warming can engender such polar positions because small conservation gains. The rest of the world will, however, be the actuality of the subject is SO pleasingly nebulous. Crime, burdened for decades to come by inefficient energy systems: ones welfare, health care: most issues are anchored in the muck of the where relatively small amounts of capital can create large benefits real. The greenhouse effect is a blank slate onto which partisans both for the Third World poor and for the global biosphere. Where may project whatever they wish to behold. should that money come from? Us. NEWSWEEK JUNE 1, 1992 33 Too Much, Too Fast Multiplying ORTH More than.609 they PRICE Humpback Human population aciffo Northwest EXTRACTIVE coastal forest stayed almost the planet! greatest constant at nearly conifer forest, has Spotted been cut down Black lowl footed 500 million from the The totali shreatch 40% of North America's ferret in the northwest year 0 to 1500. range and cropland Atlantic has fallen has turned Into desert. since the 1970s Kemp's Then it began rising THE ridley Manatee turtle exponentially. It doubled between Golden Mal 1850 and 1950, At the present rate, toad PACIFIC Coral reef doubled again half the remaining THE OCEAN forest in Honduras and Nicaragua will olombia Every year between 1950 and 5,335 sq. miles disappear by 2000. will lose.one of forest Is 1990, and now third its One destroyed in remaining of C Brazilam United Nations' by 2000 fore disa projections say that by it will double again to 10 billion by Black lion tamarin 2050. Either nations Vanishing wilderness with burgeoning TH ICA More tham95 populations will Eco-collapse of Brazil's Atlantic fores take steps to limit has nished Endangered species their numbers, or 7.2 or more children Malthusian misery per woman Southern Chile s rain -starvation and diforestis threatened epidemic-will accomplish the same goal. STATEMENT 0 to DIXON ROHR-NEWSWEEK SOURCES MULTIPLYING: POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU. INC.: VANISHING: SPECIES SURVIVAL COMMISSION OF IUCN THE WORLD CONSERVATION UNION, WORLD WILDLIFE FUND. CONSERVATIO INTERNATIONAL U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE: COLLAPSING WORLD WILDLIFE FUND. IUCN Vanishing Roughly 1.4 million species have been identified on earth. Scientists suspect there are probably 10 million to 80 million more, mostly in little-explored places such as the rain forest. But before science can find them, they're gone, destroyed with the one acre of tropical forest that disappears every second: nearly 4 million acres, an area bigger than Connecticut, vanish every year. With every acre go 50 to 100 species every day. Why worry? Time after time, species thought useless have proven essential to the ecological systems that support man. 71% of trees in Czechoslovakia suffer from defoliation caused by air pollution. Central Asia from the Middle Giant East to China has lost 72% of panda range and cropland. anean Deforestation in the Himalayas 160 million acres causes flooding in Bangladesh. south of the Asiatic Sahara have lion Kouprey turned to desert In the Philippines Burkina Mali Faso since 1940. Yemen dynamiting, polluting and collecting have killed 90% of the coral reefs. Ivory Togo Coast More-than Ethiopia India and Sri Lanka In peninsular Malaysia 60% of the Uganda almost all forest resources One third have Congo's almost no will be gone by 2000. of Guinea's train forest is Rwanda forest will rain forest slated for left. Queen Alexandra's disappear clearing birdwing butterfly by 2000.1 Malawi Zambia INDIAN OCEAN Indonesia's coral reefs are threatened. Nail- Madagascar tailed will lose 30% more Black forest by 2000. wallaby rhinoceros Aye-aye 23% of Australla's range and cropland has turned to desert Collapsing The natural systems that support life on earth are reeling under the assault of human activity. The atmosphere is losing the ozone layer, which screens out cancer-causing ultraviolet sun rays. Once fertile soils, assaulted by overcultivation, overgrazing and overcutting, are turned to desert: 15 million acres of productive land disappear every year. Forests are clear-cut faster than they can grow back. Runoff from deforested land chokes coral reefs, home to one third of all fish species. Fleets that strip-mine the seas have depleted fisheries. SPECIAL REPORT Is It Apocalypse Now? Computer models warn of doom within a century unless mankind mends its ways. Pshaw, say the skeptics. But they, too, see a need for change. lip the floppy disk into your Mac- trial output per capita crashes; the "rich" live trol, fertility rate or crop yields changed. S intosh. Your mission: explore at the level of 1900. By 2100 your world has Its sobering conclusion: humankind is us- how the future of the world can collapsed. ing resources and dumping waste at rates unfold, without bringing the the planet cannot sustain. "If changes are planet to the brink of apocalypse. It's not a very jolly video game. More like not made," says Donella Meadows of Dart- The screen shows a rat's nest of Malthusian Nintendo, it is a so- loops describing 225 measures, phisticated simulation called from fertility to soil loss to industrial capacity. World3 whose dire scenarios In the Philippines, Hidden deep in the software are the equations have spurred dozens of scientif- the poor pick relating them. Now choose your poison. Cut ic meetings and international the same 42 million acres of forests that are symposiums over the past year. through Smokey being taken today; your world has no forests in Now the warnings of World3 Mountain. On a 47 years. Click. Make your hungry people have become the specter that work the soil more intensely; land fertility, haunts the Rio summit. Nei- global scale, such GOOD! which fell only 5 percent from 1970 to 2000, ther a brainless extrapolation of current trends nor a predic- In 1970 desperation may plunges 12 percent per year in 2040. Click. By the year 2020 reserves of minerals and other tion, World3 lays out possible oridipopu make life on earth resources have shrunk to just 30 years' worth. futures and how they'd change a Malthusian hell. Crop yields plummet; billions starve. Indus- if factors such as pollution con- rowing 21 MELVYN CALDERON-JB PICTURES mouth College, one of the au- Rather than arguing about cyberland, thors of the book "Beyond the those who take World3 seriously prefer to Limits,"* describing World3, make their case in the real world, where "then our computer model fore- natural systems are already collapsing. Be- sees collapse within 50 years." tween 1985 and 1989 (the last available If this sounds familiar, that's figures), food production per capita fell in because the three authors 94 countries. In parts of the United States of "Beyond the Limits" also and elsewhere, crop yields per acre are de- helped produce the notori- clining because of air pollution and the ous 1972 report "Limits to buildup of salt and chemicals. The global Growth." Its warning that pop- fish catch fell (by 4 million tons) in 1990, for ulation and growth might tip the first time in two decades. Oysters in the world's economic or biologi- Chesapeake Bay, once so plentiful that they cal life-support systems into col- could filter all the bay's water in three days, lapse within 100 years was ALAIN BUU-GAMMA-LIAISON now number a mere 1 percent of their 1870 greeted with as much ridicule For generations Nepalese chopped population; it takes the survivors one year as reflection. Few thought its doomsday scenario possible. the wood they needed and lugged the to filter the bay. Thailand had to ban com- mercial logging in 1989 when its forest cov- Few took itseriously. But then a fuel back to their villages. The er fell from 29 percent in 1985 to 19 percent funny thing happened. From in 1988 and landslides from the denuded fisheries in the North Atlantic denuded slopes of the Himalayas sent hills cost 40,000 people their homes; the to crop yields in Africa to timber floodwaters pouring over countries Philippines has suspended logging in most harvests in Asia, exactly the sort of collapses foreseen in downstream. Now villagers are using provinces. Canada predicts that within 16 years all the old-growth forests of Brit- "Limits" came about. These solar water heaters to provide hot ish Columbia will be gone; its wheat belt has harsh facts of life have made for some strange bedfellows. showers for trekkers. Some villages lost half its organic material and is eroding badly, costing farmers $500 million to $900 From the private sector, the have mini-hydropower generators million in lost crops. "For the first time," Business Council for Sustain- that exploit small falls-no dams says James Gustave Speth of the World able Development-48 CEOs Resources Institute, "human numbers and from firms such as Du Pont, needed-to light their huts. And impacts have grown so large [that] they are Chevron, Nissan and Mitsu- bishi, led by multimillion- local conservation committees eroding on a global scale the natural sys- tems that support life." aire Swiss industrialist Ste- preserve the land that attracts phan Schmidheiny-declared that the world must "change tourists, using the foreign currency to Give your world twice the natural resources you thought it had. Assume that technolo- course" or face a collapse of the finance health clinics for women gy decreases pollution-per-unit-of- GNP; as- systems that sustain life. From government, an anxious Robert and children. sume that crop yields increase sevenfold in a century. Pollution stays lower than before. McNamara, former head of the Industry grows 20 years longer than in your World Bank and secretary of first run; so does population, topping 9 billion defense, warned in December that the in Oregon and Brazil, for growing rice in by 2050. But the incredible agricultural inten- earth cannot tolerate its rising population California, for raising cattle in Amazonia- sity causes galloping soil erosion. Agriculture and increasing pressure on resources. And the planet might be saved. But World3 does and pollution control draw so much capital from the developing nations, Shridath assume perfect markets. It also allows for that industrial output peaks in 2035. Billions Ramphal, former secretary-general of the pollution abatement, crop improvement starve. The economy collapses. Commonwealth, predicted that "unless we and resource substitution. The outcome is Although averting doomsday is not ex- bring ourselves to accept the need for global the same. "As long as there's continued plicitly on the Rio agenda, it informs every- and far-reaching change, we are headed for pressure for growth, and delays in reacting thing that is. That's because the numbers catastrophe." to limits, the system tends to [collapse]," are SO scary. Population, according to the says systems analyst John Sterman of the United Nations, will increase 2.4-fold (to 13 an that be? Economists, who know Massachus Institute of Technology. "It billion) by 2100. If consumption grows at C all about wrong forecasts, criticize doesn't depend on the numbers." just two thirds the rate of the past 25 years, World3 for its hubris in plotting But it's not just a matter of numbers. it would quadruple in 70 years. In 2100, the the 21st century's population, in- World3's scenarios depend on the mathe- world economy, by these modest projec- dustrial capacity, pollution and matical equations containing the numbers. tions, would be producing 20 times-20 other indicators. Some argue that technolo- The outcome will be different if, say, soil times-as much as it is today. Can that be gy will stave off apocalypse: once scientists loss is proportional to crop yield rather than sustained? Says McNamara, "The answer invented fiber optics, for instance, a single proportional to crop yield times 100. "The is almost certainly no." ultrathin fiber could replace 625 copper scenarios are spun out of a mathematical The easy solution-let Malthus, the wires and it didn't matter a whit to telecom- model that has little to recommend it," says Grimmest Reaper, take care of the poor- munications if earth ran out of copper. MIT's Robert Solow, a Nobel laureate in won't work. Desperate people chop down What invention can't cure, argue econo- economics. Economists who build scenarios forests for firewood, leaving so few trees mists, markets can. If governments would "spend most of their time trying to verify that local and perhaps even global weather only scrap policies that encourage ecostu- that A is connected to B in the way the patterns change. They overcultivate land pidity-subsidies for cutting virgin forest model says. There isn't any reason to be- until it gives out, permanently lowering the "By Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen lieve this model has done that. My view is planet's ability to feed its passengers. Help- Randers. 300 pages. Chelsea Green. $19.95. that it's bad science." ing the poor to escape their misery through NEWSWEEK JUNE 1, 1992 37 development has only a little to make happy." As a result, Costa Rica do with charity and everything slashed its fertility rate from 7 to 3.5 chil- to do with self-interest. "Poor dren per woman in just 25 years. people can be stopped at bor- Adopt green tech. "The most daunting ders," Mahbubul Haq, an advis- environmental challenge," says Michael er to the United Nations, told Deland, chairman of the White House The Wall Street Journal. "But Council on Environmental Quality, is poverty can be stopped. Pover- meeting the needs of those 8 billion without ty travels in the form of drugs, running the planet into the ground. That terrorism, global warming and requires avoiding the mistakes of the past. AIDS." The solution, according It requires developing with different tech- to the Business Council, is to put nologies from those that got America and "the developing regions of the WILL & DENI McINTYRE-PHOTORESEARCHERS Europe where they are today. If the tech- world, where 90 percent of fu- Rather than chopping down its jungle, nologies that brought acid rain and ozone ture population growth is ex- holes along with sports cars and food proc- pected to occur on a sustain- Costa Rica is making $1 million by essors are applied throughout the develop- able path. [Otherwise], their problems will affect the more preserving it. That's what Merck ing world, they will cause "truly cata- strophic impacts on global climate, human prosperous areas of the globe." Sharp & Dohme, the pharmaceutical health and the productivity of natural sys- As gloomy as this sounds, tems," says WRI's Speth. the apocalyptic vision is, like giant, will pay in exchange for rights Scrooge's visit from the Ghost to 'chemically prospect' for plants that he only way to fuel development is of Christmas Yet to Come, not a glimpse of what the future may have pharmaceutical value. If to wean industry from nonrenew- able resources such as minerals will be, but only of what it any products are actually developed, and fossil fuels, improve farm might be. The authors of "Be- yond the Limits" are surpris- Merck will share royalties with a methods SO soil isn't washed away and depleted, and slash pollution-per-unit- ingly upbeat. "We think the nonprofit corporation in Costa Rica that of-production within 20 years. Technology human race is up to the chal- trains conservation scientists. The exists, or can be imagined, for all this. Ja- lenge," they write. "We think pan already uses just half the energy that that a better world is possible deal has enabled Costa Rica to set aside the United States does to produce one unit and that the acceptance of physical limits is the first step one quarter of its land, thought to of GNP. The U.S. Office of Technology As- sessment estimates that half of all industri- toward getting there." The contain half a million species, al pollutants could be eliminated with ex- prescription: Stabilize population. The for conservation. isting technology. The Department of Energy says that hydropower, biomass, so- bomb is still ticking: in the time lar and geothermal power could meet 28 it takes you to read this sen- percent of the nation's energy needs. There tence, 18 babies will have been born around lowering infant-mortality rates and rais- are already prototype solar electric and the world. But it's ticking considerably ing the status of women, is how Europe, hydrogen cars. "Developing countries need more slowly. In 1970, world population was America, Canada, Japan and other nations to learn that they don't have to grow the growing 2.1 percent annually; in 1990, it managed to cap family size. It's called the way the industrialized nations did," says grew only 1.7 percent and is now 5.4 billion. demographic transition. If history is any Mohamed El-Ashry of the World Bank. By almost all accounts, population must guide, it will take a few generations for Can poor nations afford green tech? One stabilize at around 8 billion. China, Thai- lower death rates to dampen birthrates. of the most contentious issues at Rio will be land, Singapore and Costa Rica have all Demographers say we don't have that the feeling of developing countries that gotten a grip on their once skyrocketing much time: the developing world must "they are suffering for our growth," says populations. Will other high-fertility coun- slash its population growth within the next Maurice Strong, secretary-general of the tries do the same? Maybe, but they're an- 20 years. One model is China's Earth Summit. "They have the gry about being expected to shoulder the draconian one-child policy; cou- attitude that they didn't create burden. The have-nots point out that the ples who have more children these problems." America and North, which has 25 percent of the world are fined as much as $2,000 and Europe burned so much coal population, consumes 70 percent of the can be fired from their jobs (al- and oil to fuel their industries planet's energy, 75 percent of its metals, 85 though controls are more lax in that the atmosphere may be percent of its wood. 'One child in the West rural areas). Another is Costa reaching the limit of its capaci- consumes as much as 125 in the East," says Rica's more benign approach. ty to absorb the emitted carbon Maneka Gandhi, India's firebrand envi- The Caribbean nation provides GOOD NEWS dioxide without falling into a ronmentalist. As a result, she says, "nearly near-universal access to birth disastrous greenhouse effect; all the environmental degradation in the control (in a nation where the rich chopped down so many East is due to consumption in the West." 90 percent of the population trees to feed their furnaces and There will be no real brake on population is Roman Catholic and lo- build their houses that those growth as long as despair-over astronomi- cal church officials regular- remaining are but a fragile fire cal infant-mortality rates that make each ly denounce contraception), wall between the world and dis- birth a crapshoot, over eking out a living boasts a literacy rate of 93 astrous weather patterns. So from garbage heaps and the unforgiving percent and produces bill- the poor are demanding that land-drives women to bear five, six, seven boards and condom packages the rich ante up. India will ar- and eight children. advising, "Have only the num- gue in Rio that the industrial Eliminating that despair, especially by ber of children that you can nations must pay the difference NEWSWEEK JUNE 1, 1992 39 E P.O.R between the cost of development under the seeded by birds, bats and wind, the strips What's needed is wisdom. That's where in- proposed new accords and development grow back and yield 60 times as much wood satiable, or at least unsated, consumption without. The price tag may be $70 billion a per acre as conventional logging. Sustain- comes in. Meadows calculates that the year, on top of the current $54 billion in able-development money has also brought planet can support 8 billion people with foreign aid. (The developing nations them- solar water heaters to Nepal, so villagers about the standard of living of Western selves have pledged to kick in at least $280 no longer have to cut the Himalayan for- Europe in 1990. But no higher. That means billion, says Strong.) That's one twelfth the ests for fuel wood (box, page 37). It can also no aspiring to ever more-cars, gadgets, world's $900 billion-a-year military spend- buy refrigerators that do not use ozone- the toys of affluence. No more-and ing. Alternatively, it's 140 percent of the destroying gases, such as the 300 million more-stuff. To a society that equates $50 billion net flow from poor to rich coun- units destined for China (box, below). growth with all that is good, this vision is tries because of debt. If the developing nations don't get what wrong, impossible to achieve, cruel or Such numbers have led the Republican they want in Rio, there's talk of environ- naive. What happens to a business that right to fume that Rio will produce the mental blackmail. The Third World can opt does not grow? How does an economy Marshall Plan From Hell, with billions go- to grow any way it pleases. If that means absorb new workers, be they immigrants ing down a Third World hole. In fact, the spewing out gases that destroy the ozone or fresh college graduates? "The notion rich may find a silver lining. that we can or should put some "Sustainabledevelopment"aid kind of a limit on economic should line the coffers of multi- growth seems to me neither nationals that have something necessary nor practical," says environmentally benign to sell. MIT's Solow. Also, developing nations ac- count for just over one third of hose who take seri- the U.S. export market. If they T ously the threat that grow out of abject poverty, busi- growth poses to hu- ness could boom. mankind's life on earth naturally disagree, ar- nd there are green- guing that a sense of "enough" A backs to be earned on is crucial. But more than that, the green market. The they argue that it won't be such White House's De- TOM HALEY-SIPA a bad life at that. Their vision is land estimates that the market in environment- Markets in China still feature open-air perhaps best captured in a car- toon. In it, two men stand on a al goods and services-every- butchers, but the government is determined to street corner in a haze of fumes thing from smokestack scrub- give people a cool place to store their as cars whiz by and wall-to-wall bers to waste disposal-comes people jostle them; they say to $200 billion a year. While the purchases. China intends to triple its number of how glad they are for their high United States balks at contrib- uting a few million dollars to a refrigerators to 300 million. If they use standard of living-without which they could not enjoy such sustainable-development fund, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the ozone shield a high quality of life. Says the and thus alienates countries that might buy such goods, for- against cancer-causing sun rays would thin Business Council, "[there must be] changes in the measure- mer Japanese prime minister further. So the U.S. has given technical advice and ments of progress to include in- Noboru Takeshita is reportedly contributed to a $20 million aid package to dicators of quality as well as pushing Japan to kick in one quantity. Life can get better as quarter of the total requested- build environmentally safe refrigerators. people get more education and as much as S25 billion a year. Chinese researchers are testing several non- healthier. Meadows calls it "Japan will take the initiative "smart development rather in this cause," says Takeshita. CFC models and plan full production soon. than dumb growth." It is the There is no lack of ideas for path away from the world of how to spend the money. A World3. Ours may be the last $180,000 solar-energy project generation that can choose it. in Argentina, sponsored by the Argentine layer over the Riviera and Malibu, tough "If we fail to pull off the environmental and German governments, will supply en- luck. If it means burning all their coal, and revolution, to reverse the environmental ergy and running water to rural dwellers thus altering the climate patterns that trends undermining our future," says Les- who would otherwise burn polluting gas. keep wheat growing in Kansas and Sas- ter Brown of the WorldWatch Institute, "Solar energy," says German engineer katchewan and Australia, too bad. There is "future generations may not have the Helmut Geipel, "is a step from the last ample precedent. India and China dragged chance." It's getting later, but it's not too century right into the next." Farther south their feet over phasing out chemicals that late yet. in Patagonia, the World Wildlife Fund is destroy the ozone layer until they got Give couples no more than two children. helping ranchers replace their 22 million cash-$50 million in 1991-to help them Rein in demand so industrial output per capi- sheep with guanaco, relatives of the Ande- meet the new standards. "Those who make ta is about equal to South Korea's in 1990. an llama. The sheep uproot so much grass $200 a year should not pay SO that those who Invent technologies that cut pollution 90 per- that they turn 1,200 to 1,900 square miles make $10,000 a year can breathe clean air," cent over a century. Population levels off at into desert every year. The guanaco, whose says Edward Kufuor of Ghana, former 7.7 billion, average life expectancy is 80 years, wool is more valuable, don't tear out their chairman of the Group of 77 developing services per capita are twice what they were in lunch by the roots. nations. 1990. Pollution falls after 2040. Congratula- In Peru, another WWF project helps the Limit affluence. Green tech requires tions: you have saved your world. Yanesha Indians cut strips of forest. Re- cleverness. Cleverness is not enough. SHARON BEGLEY with bureau reports 42 NEWSWEEK JUNE1, 1992 Clinton Presidential Records Digital Records Marker This is not a presidential record. This is used as an administrative marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff. This marker identifies the place of a publication. Publications have not been scanned in their entirety for the purpose of digitization. To see the full publication please search online or visit the Clinton Presidential Library's Research Room. LOS ANGELES TIMES a TUESDAY, MAY 26 1992 A Day in the Life of Mother Earth A SPECIAL EARTH SUMMITISSUE OF WORLD REPORT World leaders will gather for a global environmental summit in Rio de Janeiro on June 3. If it's a typical day Be 250,000 people will be added on the road È Forest cover- to the world's population ing an area more than Up to 140 species one-third the size