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America and the World
5
Cold War, American power, both relatively and absolutely, has
continued to grow, fueled by the longest economic expansion in
the nation's history. (You already knew that.) Moreover, there
is nothing on the horizon to suggest that we will lose our
status as the world's "hyper-power" anytime soon. On the
contrary, American dominance of the global order has all the
earmarks of a semi-permanent condition of international life.
The bad news is that of the five countries that might
reasonably termed "great powers,' three of them - Russia, China
and India - are in serious trouble. (The other two, Japan and
the European superstate, are reasonably healthy and moving in
the right direction.)
Russia is a failing state, with a dysfunctional economy,
uncertain politics, an alienated people, and thousands of
nuclear weapons. China and India will either grow and stabilize
over the course of the decade, or they will stumble economically
and descend into chaos. China is probably the better bet to
overcome its problems, although its leadership is sclerotic,
defensive, and repressive - hardly a recipe for success.
Depending on what happens in Russia, China and India, the
international system will either be relatively stable at its
core or highly volatile. Making matters worse, most of the
emerging regional powers - Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, South
Africa, Nigeria, and Brazil - are also deeply troubled.
Indonesia and Nigeria are, in fact, prime candidates to join the
ranks of failed states.
Of the four cardinal challenges depicted in this memo, it
is the fundamental instability of the great-power system that
should rivet our attention. It's a huge problem for two
reasons: because when big powers sneeze, smaller powers catch
pneumonia; and because much of what happens in these giant
countries is beyond our ability to control.
We do, however, have an immense capacity to influence
events, often in ways that mean the difference between success
and failure. Bosnia. Kosovo. The Middle East Peace Process.
Northern Ireland. You know this history better than anyone. I
urge you to tell it - again and again - until the message
registers. The deep and continuous engagement of the United
States in world affairs is not something we do at the behest of
ungrateful foreigners. It is, rather, the only sure way to
build, and to protect, that better future to which we as a
people are always aspiring.
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"ocrText": "America and the World\n5\nCold War, American power, both relatively and absolutely, has\ncontinued to grow, fueled by the longest economic expansion in\nthe nation's history. (You already knew that.) Moreover, there\nis nothing on the horizon to suggest that we will lose our\nstatus as the world's \"hyper-power\" anytime soon. On the\ncontrary, American dominance of the global order has all the\nearmarks of a semi-permanent condition of international life.\nThe bad news is that of the five countries that might\nreasonably termed \"great powers,' three of them - Russia, China\nand India - are in serious trouble. (The other two, Japan and\nthe European superstate, are reasonably healthy and moving in\nthe right direction.)\nRussia is a failing state, with a dysfunctional economy,\nuncertain politics, an alienated people, and thousands of\nnuclear weapons. China and India will either grow and stabilize\nover the course of the decade, or they will stumble economically\nand descend into chaos. China is probably the better bet to\novercome its problems, although its leadership is sclerotic,\ndefensive, and repressive - hardly a recipe for success.\nDepending on what happens in Russia, China and India, the\ninternational system will either be relatively stable at its\ncore or highly volatile. Making matters worse, most of the\nemerging regional powers - Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, South\nAfrica, Nigeria, and Brazil - are also deeply troubled.\nIndonesia and Nigeria are, in fact, prime candidates to join the\nranks of failed states.\nOf the four cardinal challenges depicted in this memo, it\nis the fundamental instability of the great-power system that\nshould rivet our attention. It's a huge problem for two\nreasons: because when big powers sneeze, smaller powers catch\npneumonia; and because much of what happens in these giant\ncountries is beyond our ability to control.\nWe do, however, have an immense capacity to influence\nevents, often in ways that mean the difference between success\nand failure. Bosnia. Kosovo. The Middle East Peace Process.\nNorthern Ireland. You know this history better than anyone. I\nurge you to tell it - again and again - until the message\nregisters. The deep and continuous engagement of the United\nStates in world affairs is not something we do at the behest of\nungrateful foreigners. It is, rather, the only sure way to\nbuild, and to protect, that better future to which we as a\npeople are always aspiring."
}