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    "label": "Visions of the Future from Leading Thinkers [Binder] [2]",
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    "contentType": "document",
    "title": "Visions of the Future from Leading Thinkers [Binder] [2]",
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        "Records of the Domestic Policy Council (Clinton Administration)",
        "Bruce Reed's General Files"
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    "ocrText": "About 70 million Americans are expected to reach the age of 65 in the next thirty years. Many of\nthese will face serious problems in finding comfortable. affordable retirement. Not only are\nhousehold savings lower than they should be; the rapid increase in the elderly population will\nlead to steady increases in the cost of the goods and services that the elderly need. The price of\neverything from retirement housing to eldercare will increase as demand explodes. Through\nprograms like Medicare. a substantial portion of these costs will be borne by the federal\ngovernment.\nSetting up programs that make regional retirement attractive will allow millions of Americans to\nenjoy active, comfortable, low cost retirement abroad. Their spending on housing, health care\nand recreation will transform the economic prospects of the neighbors as billions of dollars pump\ninto the region's economies every month.\nMeanwhile, illegal immigration will fall as the retirees create millions of jobs. Municipalities in\nMexico and the Caribbean will enjoy a new tax base, while infrastructure investment in\neverything from airports and highways to water treatment and power generation will have\nprofound spill over effects. Just as northerners retiring to Arizona and Florida helped make those\nstates some of the most economically dynamic and progressive parts of the United States,\nregional retirement is probably the best way to bring Mexico and much of the Caribbean into the\nfirst world in the early decades of the new century.\nTo get an idea of the potential scale of this policy, if 10% of the 70 million Americans turning 65\nin the next thirty years take advantage of regional retirement, the annual economic boost of their\nspending and Medicare payments alone would be roughly equal to 50% of Mexico's current\nGDP. That figure does not include the impact of infrastructure investment or the housing\ninvestment. Because foreign exchange availability is one of the fundamental constraints on\ngrowth in countries like Mexico, an inflow of dollars on this scale is likely to lead to enormous\neconomic growth well beyond the retirement sector.\nInterestingly, the US government actions needed to make this possible are relatively simple and\ncheap. The two main initiatives would involve negotiating 'Retirement Accords' with the\nneighbors that set up a solid legal framework for the retirees, including an expanded consular\npresence, property protection, testamentary and double taxation issues, duty free status of\npersonal belongs and so forth, and the establishment of a certification system that would make\nforeign health care providers eligible for reimbursement (at a suitable discount reflecting lower\nlocal costs) for Medicare and Medicaid services. Additional initiatives could provide some tax\ncredits or other advantages; at a minimum, retirees who use the proceeds from selling their\ncurrent house to build, buy or lease a home in one of these countries should not face capital gains\ntaxes. Presumably US HMO's and other health care providers would be able to operate in these\ncountries or set up affiliates.\nThere are ways to increase the political appeal of this project on both sides of the US-Mexican\nfrontier. Health care providers might have to honor basic labor rights to receive certification.\nSome of the tax revenues from retirees could be earmarked for environmental programs. That"
}