Ask the Scholar
Page 16 of 40
I can add historical knowledge about this page.
Page image
OCR
Why CBO/JCT May Have Higher Price Per Pack
The following represent only educated guesses:
Factors that May Explain Difference
Smuggling: OMB reports that they are assuming 10% smuggling; we assume zero. It
may be hard to defend a precise zero, but it should be easy to deflect a number as large as
10%.
Pass-through: OMB reports that they are assuming 110% pass-through; we assume 100%.
If this is manufacturer pass-through, its hard to claim that they are wrong, but at least we
can point out that this is not a source of hardship to the industry, and is under the
industry's control. If it is retail/wholesale, we can defend our 100% assumption easily.
Share on cigarettes: We assumed 92-93%, which is consistent with the share that
cigarettes bear of the tobacco market today. But McCain as written has cigarettes
virtually all of the payments, which raises the price per pack.
State excise taxes: We assume that state excise taxes don't rise in real terms, but they
might assume that they do, which both further raises the price and further erodes
volumes.
Export fee: We assume that this is not borne at all by domestic production; they may
assume otherwise.
Liability costs, attorneys' fees: We assume no effect; these may further raise price in the
CBO/JCT model.
Loo back
What Can be Done About it:
Add volume adjustment
Add a more equal treatment of smokeless
Get rid of export fee
Be clear that industry-wide liability costs are not incremental to the base payment (if it is
in fact true).
Page data
- Page
- 16
- Source index
- 0
- Type
- photo
- Media ID
- ee704a3521119244
- Size
- unknown
Document data
- ID
- 26413663
- Core
- doc
- Type
- document
DTO data
{
"id": "26413663",
"sourceUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/26413663",
"contentType": "document",
"title": "[Tobacco] Price/Volume [2]",
"citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/26413663",
"collections": [
"Records of the Domestic Policy Council (Clinton Administration)",
"Bruce Reed's Tobacco Files"
],
"iiifBase": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/63/4136/26413663/content/presidential-libraries/clinton/foia/2011-0299-S-Tobacco/2011-0299-S-Tobacco-JPG/Box_274/42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015/42_t_7367462_20110299S_274_003_2015_Page_001.JPG",
"thumbnailUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/63/4136/26413663/content/presidential-libraries/clinton/foia/2011-0299-S-Tobacco/2011-0299-S-Tobacco-JPG/Box_274/42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015/42_t_7367462_20110299S_274_003_2015_Page_001.JPG",
"largeImageUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/63/4136/26413663/content/presidential-libraries/clinton/foia/2011-0299-S-Tobacco/2011-0299-S-Tobacco-JPG/Box_274/42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015/42_t_7367462_20110299S_274_003_2015_Page_001.JPG",
"imageCount": 40,
"hasImages": true,
"source": "import",
"hasTranscription": false
}
Context sent to Scholar
Document identity
{
"localId": "26413663",
"label": "[Tobacco] Price/Volume [2]",
"core": "doc",
"dtoType": "document",
"citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/26413663"
}
Document source metadata
{
"id": "26413663",
"sourceUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/26413663",
"contentType": "document",
"title": "[Tobacco] Price/Volume [2]",
"citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/26413663",
"collections": [
"Records of the Domestic Policy Council (Clinton Administration)",
"Bruce Reed's Tobacco Files"
],
"iiifBase": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/63/4136/26413663/content/presidential-libraries/clinton/foia/2011-0299-S-Tobacco/2011-0299-S-Tobacco-JPG/Box_274/42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015/42_t_7367462_20110299S_274_003_2015_Page_001.JPG",
"thumbnailUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/63/4136/26413663/content/presidential-libraries/clinton/foia/2011-0299-S-Tobacco/2011-0299-S-Tobacco-JPG/Box_274/42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015/42_t_7367462_20110299S_274_003_2015_Page_001.JPG",
"largeImageUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/63/4136/26413663/content/presidential-libraries/clinton/foia/2011-0299-S-Tobacco/2011-0299-S-Tobacco-JPG/Box_274/42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015/42_t_7367462_20110299S_274_003_2015_Page_001.JPG",
"imageCount": 40,
"hasImages": true,
"source": "import",
"hasTranscription": false
}
Document source extras
{
"url": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/26413663",
"naId": 26413663,
"levelOfDescription": "fileUnit",
"otherTitles": [
"42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015"
],
"recordType": "description",
"ocrSource": "nara-archive"
}
Page context
{
"seq": 16,
"pageIndex": 0,
"type": "photo",
"url": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/63/4136/26413663/content/presidential-libraries/clinton/foia/2011-0299-S-Tobacco/2011-0299-S-Tobacco-JPG/Box_274/42-t-7367462-20110299S-274-003-2015/42_t_7367462_20110299S_274_003_2015_Page_016.JPG",
"mediaId": "ee704a3521119244",
"ocrText": "Why CBO/JCT May Have Higher Price Per Pack\nThe following represent only educated guesses:\nFactors that May Explain Difference\nSmuggling: OMB reports that they are assuming 10% smuggling; we assume zero. It\nmay be hard to defend a precise zero, but it should be easy to deflect a number as large as\n10%.\nPass-through: OMB reports that they are assuming 110% pass-through; we assume 100%.\nIf this is manufacturer pass-through, its hard to claim that they are wrong, but at least we\ncan point out that this is not a source of hardship to the industry, and is under the\nindustry's control. If it is retail/wholesale, we can defend our 100% assumption easily.\nShare on cigarettes: We assumed 92-93%, which is consistent with the share that\ncigarettes bear of the tobacco market today. But McCain as written has cigarettes\nvirtually all of the payments, which raises the price per pack.\nState excise taxes: We assume that state excise taxes don't rise in real terms, but they\nmight assume that they do, which both further raises the price and further erodes\nvolumes.\nExport fee: We assume that this is not borne at all by domestic production; they may\nassume otherwise.\nLiability costs, attorneys' fees: We assume no effect; these may further raise price in the\nCBO/JCT model.\nLoo back\nWhat Can be Done About it:\nAdd volume adjustment\nAdd a more equal treatment of smokeless\nGet rid of export fee\nBe clear that industry-wide liability costs are not incremental to the base payment (if it is\nin fact true)."
}