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Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet Clinton Library DOCUMENT NO. SUBJECT/TITLE DATE RESTRICTION AND TYPE 001. cable Re: [Irish Terrorism] (7 pages) 03/10/1998 P1/b(1) 002. cable Re: [Continuity Irish Republican Army] (4 pages) 05/04/1998 P1/b(1) COLLECTION: Clinton Presidential Records NSC Cables Jan 1997 - Dec 1998 ([Enniskillen or Fermanagh]) OA/Box Number: 520000 FOLDER TITLE: [01/26/1998 - 08/20/1998] 2016-0402-F ke4252 RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - |44 U.S.C. 2204(a)| Freedom of Information Act - 15 U.S.C. 552(b)] P1 National Security Classified Information |(a)(1) of the PRA] b(1) National security classified information |(b)(1) of the FOIA] P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] an agency |(b)(2) of the FOIA] P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute |(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA| b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy |(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy |(a)(6) of the PRAJ b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes |(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of of gift. financial institutions |(b)(8) of the FOIA] PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C. b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information 2201(3). concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA| RR. Document will be reviewed upon request. Page 1 of 4 Cable PREC: IMMEDIATE CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED LINE1: OAAUZYUW RUEHBLA0028 0261639-UUUU--RHEHAAX. LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH LINE3: O 261639Z JAN 98 LINE4: FM AMCONSUL BELFAST OSRI: RUEHBL DTG: 261639Z JAN 98 ORIG: AMCONSUL BELFAST TO: RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIE 9528 INFO: RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0061 RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 6668 RUEHED/AMCONSUL EDINBURGH 0029 RUEHOL/AMEMBASSY BONN 0018 RUESLE/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0008 SUBJ: VIOLENT WEEKEND FOLLOWS LOYALIST UFF STATEMENT CLAIMING RE-INSTATEMENT OF CEASE-FIRE TEXT: UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELFAST 0028 NSC FOR STEINBERG/BULTER BONN FOR WARLICK SHANGHAI FOR BARBORIAK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC, PINS, PTER, PREL, PREL, UK, EI SUBJECT: VIOLENT WEEKEND FOLLOWS LOYALIST UFF STATEMENT CLAIMING RE-INSTATEMENT OF CEASE-FIRE 1. SUMMARY: TWO CATHOLIC MEN WERE MURDERED AND ANOTHER WAS INJURED DURING A WEEKEND OF VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND. A BOMB EXPLODED IN A NIGHT CLUB IN ENNISKILLEN, COUNTY FERMANAGH BUT NO-ONE WAS INJURED. THE VIOLENCE WAS WIDELY CONDEMNED. THE INCIDENTS TOOK PLACE AFTER A STATEMENT FROM THE ULSTER FREEDOM FIGHTERS (UFF) ADMITTED TO SOME OF THE EARLIER MURDERS, BUT ANNOUNCED THAT ITS CAMPAIGN HAD "CONCLUDED" END SUMMARY. VIOLENCE: 2. FRIDAY, JANUARY 23: A 39 YEAR OLD CATHOLIC PIPE LAYER, LIAM CONWAY WAS SHOT AS HE OPERATED A MECHANICAL DIGGER IN A STREET OFF THE LOYALIST CRUMLIN ROAD AREA OF NORTH BELFAST JUST BEFORE 5 P.M. CONWAY WAS TAKEN TO HOSPITAL BUT DIED A SHORT TIME LATER. NO GROUP HAS CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE MURDER BUT IT IS GENERALLY ASSUMED BY PRESS SOURCES AND LOCAL F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD029\JAN98\MSGS\M3120049.html Page 2 of 4 POLITICIANS THAT THE KILLING WAS THE WORK OF THE LOYALIST VOLUNTEER FORCE (LVF) 3. SATURDAY, JANUARY 24: A 33 YEAR OLD CATHOLIC TAXI DRIVER, JOHN MCCOLGAN WAS MURDERED AFTER PICKING UP A GROUP OF MEN ON THE NATIONALIST ANDERSONSTOWN ROAD AROUND 9.30 P.M. HIS BODY WAS FOUND BY A PASSERBY ON A COUNTRY ROAD ON THE EDGE OF WEST BELFAST LATER THAT EVENING. HIS TAXI, APPARENTLY USED AS A GETAWAY CAR, WAS LATER FOUND BURNED OUT AT THE GIANT'S RING NEAR SHAWS BRIDGE IN SOUTH BELFAST, NOT FAR FROM THE CONSUL GENERAL'S RESIDENCE. MCCOLGAN WAS MARRIED WITH THREE CHILDREN. WHILE NO GROUP HAS CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE KILLING, IT IS AGAIN GENERALLY BELIEVED THE LVF WAS RESPONSIBLE. 4. THE REPUBLICAN CONTINUITY IRA HAS BEEN BLAMED FOR A CAR BOMB WHICH EXPLODED OUTSIDE A POPULAR NIGHT CLUB IN ENNISKILLEN, COUNTY FERMANAGH AT 9.30 P.M. ON THE SAME EVENING. A TELEPHONE WARNING HAD BEEN RECEIVED TWO HOURS EARLIER BY A LOCAL PRIEST. HE CONTACTED THE POLICE WHO EVACUATED SOME 500 CUSTOMERS FROM THE CLUB, WHO WERE FORCED TO SQUEEZE PAST THE CAR. ARMY BOMB DISPOSAL EXPERTS WERE EXAMINING THE CAR WHEN THE BOMB EXPLODED. NO-ONE WAS INJURED IN THE BLAST WHICH WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 300 LBS IN SIZE, BUT IT CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO THE PREMISES, AND TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN A LARGE SURROUNDING AREA. 5. LATER THE SAME EVENING ANOYMOUS WARNINGS OF BOMBS CAUSED THE EVACUATION OF THREE HOTELS IN THE BELFAST AREA - THE MADISON HOTEL ON BOTANIC AVENUE NEAR QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY IN SOUTH BELFAST, AND THE STORMONT AND CULLODEN HOTELS IN EAST BELFAST. THE AREAS WERE EVACUATED AND SEARCHED, BUT NO DEVICES WERE FOUND, AND THEY WERE LATER DECLARED HOAXES. 6. SUNDAY, JANUARY 25: THE LVF CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ATTEMPTED MURDER OF A CATHOLIC MAN AS HE SAT IN THE CAB OF A LORRY IN THE NATIONALIST TAGHNEVAN ESTATE IN LURGAN, COUNTY ARMAGH JUST BEFORE 8 A.M. THE MAN, WHO HAS NOT BEEN NAMED, IS IN THE HOSPITAL, HIS CONDITION DESCRIBED AS "COMFORTABLE." ANOTHER CATHOLIC FROM THE SAME ESTATE IN LURGAN HAS CLAIMED THAT HE MANAGED TO THWART AN ATTEMPT ON HIS LIFE ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER WHEN A CAR CARRYING THREE MEN STOPPED ALONG SIDE HIM AS HE WALKED ALONG A ROAD IN THE ESTATE. CONDEMNATION: 7. THE WEEKEND VIOLENCE HAS BEEN WIDELY CONDEMNED. SECRETARY OF STATE MO MOWLAM DESCRIBED THE KILLERS AS "SECTARIAN BIGOTS THAT ARE TRYING TO DESTROY THE PEACE PROCESS." ULSTER UNIONIST LEADER (UUP) DAVID TRIMBLE SAID HE WAS "APPALLED" AT THE CONTINUING VIOLENCE AND CALLED UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 BELFAST 0028 NSC FOR STEINBERG/BULTER F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD029\JAN98\MSGS\M3120049.htm) Page 3 of 4 BONN FOR WARLICK SHANGHAI FOR BARBORIAK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC, PINS, PTER, PREL, PREL, UK, EI SUBJECT: VIOLENT WEEKEND FOLLOWS LOYALIST UFF STATEMENT CLAIMING RE-INSTATEMENT OF CEASE-FIRE ON THE KILLERS TO STOP. SDLP LEADER JOHN HUME SAID THAT THE VIOLENCE MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO DERAIL THE PEACE TALKS. HE COMMENTED, "WE HAVE EXTREMIST SPLINTER GROUPS OBVIOUSLY TRYING TO DERAIL THE PEACE PROCESS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR PEOPLE WANT LASTING PEACE AND WANT THEIR POLITICAL REPRESENTATIVES TO REACH AGREEMENT." PROGRESSIVE UNIONIST (PUP) SPOKESMAN DAVID ERVINE SAID THAT THE KILLERS WERE INTENT ON "FUNDAMENTALLY DESTROYING THE PEACE PROCESS AND THE TALKS BY PUTTING ENOUGH PRESSURE ON THE IRA TO RESPOND." ERVINE SAID POLITICIANS HAD A RESPONSIBILITY TO TALK. SINN FEIN'S GERRY ADAMS CRITICIZED THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT'S HANDLING OF THE SITUATION, ACCUSING THEM OF "SUCCUMBING TO THE ORANGE CARD. ADAMS SAID "THE LOYALIST KILLING IS ABOUT PREVENTING CHANGE AND INTIMIDATING NATIONALISTS. WE WILL NOT BE INTIMIDATED." UFF STATEMENT: 8. THE LOYALIST TERROR GROUP, THE UFF, ISSUED A STATEMENT ON FRIDAY, JANUARY 23 ADMITTING RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THE LATEST MURDERS. THE STATEMENT DESCRIBED THE KILLINGS AS A MEASURED MILITARY RESPONSE" TO THE "CURRENT PHASE OF REPUBLICAN AGGRESSION." THE STATEMENT ADDED, "THAT RESPONSE HAS NOW CONCLUDED," AND CONTINUED, "THE UFF RECOGNISES THE IMPORTANCE OF ENDING THE CURRENT CRISIS AND IS PREPARED TO FULFIL ITS RESPONSIBILITIES. THE REPUBLICAN MOVEMENT MUST NOW REIN IN ITS DOGS OF WAR.' 9. IN THE WAKE OF THE UFF STATEMENT, POLITICIANS HAVE CALLED FOR THE GROUP'S POLITICAL REPRESENTATIVES, THE ULSTER DEMOCRATIC PARTY, TO BE BANNED FROM THE POLITICAL TALKS, WHICH WILL TAKE PLACE IN LONDON THIS WEEK DEPUTY LEADER OF THE ALLIANCE PARTY SEAMUS CLOSE SAID, "THERE CAN BE NO EQUIVOCATION: NO ATTEMPT TO MIX POLITICS AND VIOLENCE." THE UUP HAS CALLED UPON THE TWO GOVERNMENTS TO TAKE THE DECISION OF WHETHER THE UDP BE ALLOWED TO REMAIN. SDLP LEADER JOHN HUME SAID THE ISSUE WAS A MATTER FOR DISCUSSION AT THE TALKS. THE SECRETARY OF STATE DESCRIBED THE ISSUE AS ONE OF COMPETING MORALITIES. WE HAVE THE MORALITY OF THE INTEGRITY OF THE TALKS, THE THREE MURDERS AND THE MITCHELL PRINCIPLES ON THE ONE SIDE VERSUS TRYING TO HOLD THE TALKS TOGETHER AND MAKING SURE MORE LIVES ARE NOT LOST. STEPHENS SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 02 ^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 02 F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD029\JAN98\MSGS\M3120049.html Page 4 of 4 SSN: 0028 < <^SSN>0028 TOR: 980126114655 M3120049 <^TOR>980126114711 M3120051 DIST: SIT: BANDLER BUTLER SUM2 SIT: NSC PRT: SIT {c2} Withdrawal/Redaction Marker Clinton Library DOCUMENT NO. SUBJECT/TITLE DATE RESTRICTION AND TYPE 001. cable Re: [Irish Terrorism] (7 pages) 03/10/1998 P1/b(1) COLLECTION: Clinton Presidential Records NSC Cables Jan 1997 - Dec 1998 ([Enniskillen or Fermanagh]) OA/Box Number: 520000 FOLDER TITLE: [01/26/1998 - 08/20/1998] 2016-0402-F ke4252 RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - |44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - 15 U.S.C. 552(b)] P1 National Security Classified Information |(a)(1) of the PRA b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office |(a)(2) of the PRA| b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of P3 Release would violate a Federal statute |(a)(3) of the PRA an agency |(b)(2) of the FOIA] P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information |(a)(4) of the PRA] h(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information |(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA| b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy |(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy |(a)(6) of the PRA] b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes |(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C. b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information 2201(3). concerning wells |(b)(9) of the FOIA] RR. Document will be reviewed upon request. Withdrawal/Redaction Marker Clinton Library DOCUMENT NO. SUBJECT/TITLE DATE RESTRICTION AND TYPE 002. cable Re: [Continuity Irish Republican Army] (4 pages) 05/04/1998 P1/b(1) COLLECTION: Clinton Presidential Records NSC Cables Jan 1997 - Dec 1998 ([Enniskillen or Fermanagh]) OA/Box Number: 520000 FOLDER TITLE: [01/26/1998 - 08/20/1998] 2016-0402-F ke4252 RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - |44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] b(1) National security classified information |(b)(1) of the FOIA] P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA| b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of P3 Release would violate a Federal statute |(a)(3) of the PRA] an agency |(b)(2) of the FOIA] P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information |(a)(4) of the PRA] b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA| b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of of gift. financial institutions |(b)(8) of the FOIA] PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C. b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information 2201(3). concerning wells |(b)(9) of the FOIA] RR. Document will be reviewed upon request. F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\MAY98MSGS\M3284940.html Page 1. of 3 Cable PREC: ROUTINE CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED LINE1: RAAUZYUW RUEHBLA0210 1331109-UUUU--RHEHAAX. LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH LINE3: R 131109Z MAY 98. LINE4: FM AMCONSUL BELFAST OSRI: RUEHBL DTG: 131109Z MAY 98 ORIG: AMCONSUL BELFAST TO: RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9722 INFO: RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0260 RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 6854 SUBJ: CHANCELLOR ANNOUNCES 500 MILLION DOLLAR PACKAGE FOR NORTHERN IRELAND TEXT: UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELFAST 0210 LONDON FOR POL/HALL LONDON FOR USDOC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EINV, ECON, UK, EI SUBJECT: CHANCELLOR ANNOUNCES 500 MILLION DOLLAR PACKAGE FOR NORTHERN IRELAND 1. SUMMARY: GORDON BROWN, ON THE FIRST VISIT TO NORTHERN IRELAND BY A BRITISH CHANCELLOR IN EIGHTEEN YEARS, ANNOUNCED IN BELFAST MAY 12, A 500-MILLION PLUS USD ECONOMIC PACKAGE FOR NORTHERN IRELAND. THE PACKAGE, THE LARGEST EVER ANNOUNCED FOR NORTHERN IRELAND, WAS TWICE WHAT WAS FORECAST. END SUMMARY. 2. SPEAKING BEFORE AN AUDIENCE OF POLITICIANS, TRADE UNIONISTS AND OTHER BUSINESS PEOPLE AT STORMONT MAY 12, CHANCELLOR BROWN SAID THE ECONOMIC PACKAGE WAS AIMED AT CREATING JOBS AND PROSPERITY BY MAKING NORTHERN IRELAND A "BETTER PLACE FOR BUSINESS." BROWN SAID THE PACKAGE WAS NOT CONDITIONAL ON A "YES" VOTE IN THE REFERENDUM ON THE MITCHELL PEACE AGREEMENT IN TEN YS TIME, BUT HE STRESSED THE TRUE BENEFITS OF THE PACKAGE WOULD ONLY BE FELT IN A PEACEFUL AND STABLE SITUATION. "THE BEST WAY OF SECURING INVESTMENT IN THE FUTURE ISN'T JUST THROUGH THE INCENTIVES I'M PROVIDING BUT THROUGH POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STABILITY AND I THINK THE PEOPLE OF NORTHERN IRELAND UNDERSTAND THAT." 3. THE CHANCELLOR'S PACKAGE COMPRISES FOUR FUNDS FOCUSSING ON SKILLS, ENTERPRISE, INFRASTRUCTURE AND INNOVATION/TOURISM. F:\Cable\Data_SourceCables\CD031\MAY98MSGS\M3284940.html Page 2 of 3 EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS - 100 MILLION USD A NEW DEAL WILL BE OFFERED TO UNDER-25'S WITH UP TO "30,000 OPPORTUNITIES" ON OFFER. THE FUND WILL PROVIDE 16 MILLION USD TO HELP DISABLED PEOPLE FIND WORK. A SKILLS AUDIT OF NORTHERN IRELAND WILL BE CARRIED OUT TO IDENTIFY NEEDS. ENTERPRISE FUND - 160 MILLION USD NORTHERN IRELAND FIRMS WILL BE ABLE TO WRITE OFF ALL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE AGAINST TAX IN THE FIRST YEAR, FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS. CHANCELLOR BROWN WILL ACCOMPANY NORTHERN IRELAND SECRETARY MO MOWLAM ON A TEN-CITY TOUR OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA THIS FALL. A NEW VENTURE CAPITAL FUND WILL BE ESTABLISHED TO FUND START-UP COMPANIES. THE NORTHERN IRELAND BEEF INDUSTRY WILL BE ALLOCATED 3 MILLION USD TO LAUNCH A MAJOR MARKETING DRID. INVESTMENT FUND - 205 MILLION USD SIX KEY ROAD PROJECTS WILL BE STARTED INCLUDING IMPROVEMENTS TO BELFAST'S WEST LINK FREEWAY AND OTHER MAJOR PROJECTS IN COUNTIES LONDONDERRY, ANTRIM, DOWN AND TYRONE. THE AIRPORT AT SAINT ANGELO IN COUNTY FERMANAGH WILL BE UPGRADED. EDUCATION WILL ALSO GET SUBSTANTIAL FUNDS INCLUDING GRANTS FOR INTEGRATED SCHOOLS AND IRISH-LANGUAGE SCHOOLS. THE PROVINCE'S WORST PUBLIC HOUSING ESTATES WILL BE IMPROVED. INNOVATION/TOURISM FUND - 35 MILLION USD AMONG THE PROJECTS TO BENEFIT FROM THE FUND WILL BE A SCIENCE PARK FOR BELFAST'S QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND TOURISM. 4. THE NORTHERN IRELAND BUSINESS COMMUNITY WELCOMED THE CHANCELLOR'S PACKAGE AS A "WELL-CRAFTED BOOST" FOR LOCAL INDUSTRY. INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS CHAIRMAN ALAN MCCLURE SAID THE PACKAGE WAS A "BADLY-NEEDED MESSAGE OF CONFIDENCE." MCCLURE SAID HE WAS PLEASED THE GOVERNMENT HAD DEMONSTRATED IT WAS PREPARED TO BE IMAGINATIVE WITH ECONOMIC AS WELL AS POLITICAL ISSUES. 5. THE NORTHERN IRELAND CHAIRMAN OF THE CONFEDERATION OF BRITISH INDUSTRY (CBI), CHRIS GIBSON, PRAISED THE CHANCELLOR FOR LISTENING TO LOCAL OPINION IN ORDER TO UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 BELFAST 0210 LONDON FOR POL/HALL LONDON FOR USDOC F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\MAY98\MSGS\M3284940.html Page 3 of 3 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EINV, ECON, UK, EI SUBJECT: CHANCELLOR ANNOUNCES 500 MILLION DOLLAR PACKAGE FOR NORTHERN IRELAND "CREATE A PLATFORM FOR PROGRESS ON WHICH THE PROVINCE CAN BUILD." CHAMBER OF COMMERCE CHIEF EXECUTIVE JOHN STRINGER WELCOMED THE PACKAGE AND SAID IT WOULD FIND FAVOR IN MOST QUARTERS. 6. ALMOST ALL POLITICAL PARTIES, INCLUDING THOSE IN THE REFERENDUM "NO" CAMP, WELCOMED THE CHANCELLOR'S INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENT. CHANCELLOR BROWN REJECTED DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST CLAIMS THAT THE PACKAGE WAS DESIGNED TO "BUY YES VOTES" ON MAY 22. HE SAID IT WAS A PLATFORM FOR LONG-TERM PROSPERITY AND HE HOPE EVERYONE WOULD SEE IT THAT WAY. STEPHENS SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 02 <^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 02 SSN: 0210 <^SSN>0210 TOR: 980513071842 M3284940 <^TOR>980513072053 M3284948 DIST: SIT: BANDLER BOONE BUTLER HAINES KYLE LEE SIT: NSC F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\MAY98\MSGS\M3312113.html Page 1 of 3 Cable PREC: ROUTINE CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED LINE1: RAAUZYUW RUEHBLA0222 1491048-UUUU--RHEHAAX. LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH LINE3: R 291048Z MAY 98 LINE4: FM AMCONSUL BELFAST OSRI: RUEHBL DTG: 291048Z MAY 98 ORIG: AMCONSUL BELFAST TO: RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9733 INFO: RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0273 RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 6864 SUBJ: EXIT. POLL SUGGESTS MOST PROTESTANTS VOTED YES TEXT: UNCLAS BELFAST 0222 NSC FOR STEINBERG/BUTLER LONDON FOR POL/HALL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PTER, PBTS, UK, EI SUBJECT: EXIT POLL SUGGESTS MOST PROTESTANTS VOTED YES x1. SUMMARY: AN EXIT POLL, CONDUCTED BY INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTANTS COOPERS AND LYBRAND FOR THE SUNDAY TIMES NEWSPAPER, AND PUBLISHED MAY 24, INDICATED THE MAJORITY OF PROTESTANTS VOTED YES IN THE NORTHERN IRELAND REFERENDUM. IN THEIR POLL, COOPERS CONDUCTED INTERVIEWS AT 54 LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT NORTHERN IRELAND'S 18 CONSTITUENCIES. END SUMMARY. 2. THE OFFICIAL RESULT OF THE NORTHERN IRELAND REFERENDUM WAS: YES - 71.12 PER CENT, NO - 28.88 PER CENT. THE TURNOUT WAS 81 PER CENT. IN NORTHERN IRELAND, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED THE RESULTS OF THE POLL AS A PROVINCE-WIDE TALLY RATHER THAN BY CONSTITUENCY, POLITICAL PARTY OR RELIGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF A DETAILED BREAKDOWN OF THE RESULTS, THE COOPERS' EXIT POLL IS SEEN AS THE MOST AUTHORITATIVE AVAILABLE, THOUGH ITS FINDINGS ARE NOT UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED BY POLITICIANS HERE. 3. THE EXIT POLL REVEALED THAT, ON A CONSTITUENCY BASIS, ONLY IAN PAISLEY'S NORTH ANTRIM VOTED NO. ACCORDING TO COOPERS, THE NORTHERN IRELAND CONSTITUENCIES VOTED THUS: PERCENTAGE F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\MAY98\MSGS\M3B12113:html Page 2 of 3 CONSTITUENCY YES NO BELFAST NORTH 57 43 BELFAST EAST 72 28 BELFAST SOUTH 85 15 BELFAST WEST 88 12 FOYLE 84 16 EAST LONDONDERRY 65 35 NORTH ANTRIM 45 55 EAST ANTRIM 63 37 SOUTH ANTRIM 62 38 NORTH DOWN 73 28 SOUTH DOWN 90 10 STRANGFORD 67 33 LAGAN VALLEY 52 48 UPPER BANN 60 40 NEWRY AND ARMAGH 82 18 MID ULSTER 79 21 WEST TYRONE 83 17 FERMANAGH/SOUTH TYRONE 87 13 4. BASED ON THESE FIGURES, THE YES CAMPAIGN HAD THEIR BEST RESULT IN SOUTH DOWN WITH 90 PER CENT SUPPORT. 17 OUT OF THE 18 NORTHERN IRELAND CONSTITUENCIES VOTED FOR THE AGREEMENT. THE NO CAMPAIGN DID BEST IN IAN PAISLEY'S CONSTITUENCY OF NORTH ANTRIM. THE NO'S ALSO DID WELL IN JEFFREY DONALDSON'S LAGAN VALLEY, AND IN UPPER BANN AND EAST LONDONDERRY. 5. IAN PAISLEY, WHO LED THE NO CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE AGREEMENT, CLAIMED 56 PER CENT OF UNIONISTS OPPOSED THE AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE EXIT POLL SUGGESTS 55 PER CENT SUPPORTED THE YES CAMPAIGN WITH 45 PER CENT AGAINST. 74 PER CENT OF SELF- DECLARED ULSTER UNIONISTS VOTED FOR THE YES CAMPAIGN, ACCORDING TO THE EXIT POLL. 6. THE FOLLOWING FIGURES REPRESENT THE PERCENTAGE OF VOTES CAST BY RELIGION, GENDER AND AGE. YES NO PROTESTANT 55 45 CATHOLIC 96 4 MALE 68 32 FEMALE 75 25 18 24 70 30 25 -C4 70 30 35 44 71 29 45 59 76 24 F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\MAY98\MSGS\M3312113.html Page 3 of 3 60& 72 28 7. THE VOTES CAST BY POLITICAL AFFILIATION WERE AS FOLLOWS: PARTY YES NO UUP 74 26 SDP 98 2 DUP 15 85 SINN FEIN 93 3 PUP 85 15 ALLIANCE 97 3 UDP 77 23 UKUP 2 98 HERE, THE PARTIES WHICH LED THE NO CAMPAIGN, THE DEMOCRATIC UNIONISTS (DUP) AND THE UK UNIONIST PARTY (UKUP), POLLED STRONGLY AGAINST THE AGREEMENT. 8. NOW THAT THE NORTHERN IRELAND ELECTORATE HAS DELIVERED ITS VERDICT ON THE STORMONT AGREEMENT, THE NEXT PHASE IN THE PROCESS IS THE ELECTION OF A 108 - SEAT NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ON JUNE 25. NOMINATIONS FOR THE ASSEMBLY ARE TO BE SUBMITTED MAY 29 THROUGH JUNE 3. SIX SEATS WILL BE AVAILABLE IN EACH OF THE 18 WESTMINSTER CONSTITUENCIES. STEPHENS SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 01 SSN: 0222 TOR: 980530015315 M3312113 DIST: SIT: BANDLER BUTLER SUM2 SIT: NSC PRT: SIT {c2} STEINBERG F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031JUN98\MSGS\M3320270.html Page 1 of 4 Cable PREC: IMMEDIATE CLASS: CONFIDENTTAL LINE1: OAACZYUW RUEHDLA2970 1551632-CCCC--RHEHAAX. LINE2: ZNY CCCCC ZZH LINE3: O 041632Z JUN 98 LINE4: FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN DECLASSIFIED E.O. 13526 OSRI: RUEHDL Department of State Guidelines, DTG: 041632Z JUN 98 September 11, 2006 ORIG: AMEMBASSY DUBLIN By LOE NARA, Date 0312217 TO: RUEHC/SECSTE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3510 INFO: RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0338 2016-0402-F RUEHLOB/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0661 RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC SUBJ: REQUEST FOR U.S. HELP IN AVERTING CONFRONTATION DURING UPCOMING MARCHING SEASON IN NORTHERN IRELAND TEXT: DUBLIN 002970 NSC FOR STEINBERG/BUTLER FROM AMBASSADOR SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/08 TAGS: PREL, PHUM, UK, EI SUBJECT: REQUEST FOR U.S. HELP IN AVERTING CONFRONTATION DURING UPCOMING MARCHING SEASON IN NORTHERN IRELAND REF: BELFAST 223 CLASSIFIED BY AMB. JEAN KENNEDY SMITH. REASON 1.5 (B) SUMMARY / 1. (SBU) IN A FERVENT LETTER ADDRESSED TO ME, A FERMANAGH DISTRICT COUNCILLOR EXPRESSES DEEP CONCERN ABOUT A LOOMING CONFRONTATION IN NEWTOWNBUTLER, CO. FERMANAGH, BETWEEN THE NATIONALIST RESIDENTS GROUP AND MARCHERS FROM THE ROYAL BLACK PRECEPTORY (RBP). THE COUNCILLOR CLAIMS THAT AN AGREEMENT THAT HAD BEEN BROKERED BY REVEREND ROY MAGEE HAS NOT BEEN HONORED BY THE RBP. HE EXPRESSES CONCERN THAT DISSIDENT REPUBLICAN ELEMENTS WILL EXPLOIT THE SITUATION, AND CALLS ON THE U.S. TO EXERT ANY INFLUENCE THAT MIGHT HELP SOLVE THE PROBLEM. 2. MARTIN MANSERGH SAID THAT THE GOI WILL LOOK INTO THIS PARTICULAR MARCH, AND HOPES A MAJOR CONFRONTATION CAN BE AVOIDED AT DRUMCREE. HE STRONGLY AGREED WITH MY RECOMMENDATION THAT SECRETARY DALEY'S UPCOMING VISIT TO NORTHERN IRELAND BE USED TO STRESS THE DAMAGE TO THE INVESTMENT CLIMATE THAT WOULD ENSUE FROM A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS YEARS' MARCHING SEASON VIOLENCE (SEE PARA 9). Page 2 of 4 3. MANSERGH INDICATED THE GOI IS NOT THAT UNHAPPY WITH THE OUTCOME ON NOMINATIONS TO THE POLICE REVIEW COMMISSION. OF MORE SERIOUS CONCERN TO THE GOI, HOWEVER, IS PROPOSED BRITISH LEGISLATION ON PRISONER RELEASES, WHICH MAY TRY TO ESTABLISH A LINKAGE TO DECOMMISSIONING. END SUMMARY / 4. (SBU) BRIAN MCCAFRREY, A COUNCILLOR IN FERMANAGH DISTRICT COUNCIL, NORTHERN IRELAND, PRESENTED ME THE FOLLOWING LETTER DATED JUNE 2, 1998, DURING MY RECENT VISIT TO CO. FERMANAGH. TEXT OF MCCAFFREY LETTER / 5. (SBU) BEGIN TEXT: A CHARA, I WAS A MEMBER OF A DELEGATION FROM RESIDENTS GROUPS ACROSS THE SIX COUNTIES WHICH MET YOURSELF AND A MEMBER OF YOUR STAFF IN 1996 TO BRIEF YOU ON THE SITUATION REGARDING LOYAL ORDER MARCHES IN NATIONALIST AREAS. WE FELT THAT THE BRIEFING WAS EXTREMELY USEFUL TO BOTH SIDES. I WISH TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO THE SERIOUS SITUATION DEVELOPING IN THE FERMANAGH VILLAGE OF NEWTOWNBUTLER WHICH IS PART OF THE AREA I WAS ELECTED TO REPRESENT. AN AGREEMENT WHICH HAD BEEN BROKERED BETWEEN THE RESIDENTS GROUP AND THE ROYAL BLACK PRECEPTORY WITH THE HELP OF REV. ROY MAGEE HAS NOT BEEN HONOURED BY THE R.B.P. THE RESIDENTS GROUP NO LONGER HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE PARADES COMMISSION. LAST YEAR THE RESIDENTS, YOUNG AND OLD, WERE BATTERED OFF THE MAIN STREET OF THE VILLAGE WHILST ENGAGED IN A PEACEFUL PROTEST AGAINS THE R.B.P. MARCH. FEELINGS ARE NOW RUNNING so HIGH THAT I BELIEVE THAT THIS YEAR'S MARCHES WILL LEAD TO A FAR MORE SERIOUS SITUATION DEVELOPING. IN PARTICULAR I AM DEEPLY CONCERNED THAT THE SITUATION WILL BE EXPLOITED BY DISSIDENT REPUBLICAN ELEMENTS WHO RESIDE IN THE AREA. I WOULD APPRECIATE IT IF YOU WOULD EXERT ANY INFLUENCE WHICH YOU FEEL WOULD BE USEFUL IN TRYING TO FIND A SOLUTION TO THIS PROBLEM. IF YOU FEEL THAT A MEETING WITH MYSELF AND/OR THE NEWTOWNBUTLER RESIDENTS WOULD BE USEFUL THEN PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE TO CONTACT ME. YOURS SINC_, CLLR BRIAN MCCAFFREY. END TEXT. MARTIN MANSERGH: PARADES F:\CableData_Source\Cables\CD031\JUN98\MSGS\M3320270.htmil Page 3 of 4 / 6. I MET WITH TAOISEACH'S POLITICAL ADVISER MARTIN MANSERGH ON JUNE 4 TO GET HIS VIEWS ON THE MARCHING SEASON AND WHAT THE U.S. MIGHT DO TO HELP AVERT CONFRONTATION. MANSERGH HAD NOT HEARD ABOUT THE NEWTOWNBUTLER SITUATION, AND SAID CLLR MCCAFFREY'S LETTER WOULD BE REFERRED TO DFA, REF: BELFAST 223 WHERE THE MARCHING ISSUE WAS BEING WA TCHED CLOSELY. 7. MANSERGH COMPLAINED THAT THE LACK OF DIALOGUE WAS HAMPERING EFFORTS TO REACH COMPROMISE ON KEY PARADES, SUCH AS THE MARCH DOWN THE GARVAGHY ROAD. IN THE ABSENCE OF A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION, IF ANYONE TRIED TO FORCE A MARCH DOWN THAT ROAD, "MAJOR DISTURBANCES" WOULD ENSUE. MANSERGH SAID SINN FEIN'S INFLUENCE IS NOT SO STRONG THAT IT COULD PERSUADE GARVAGHY ROAD RESIDENTS TO ACCEPT AN ORANGE ORDER MARCH - - EVEN IF SF WERE DISPOSED TO MAKE THIS ARGUMENT. NEITHER DID LOYALIST PARTIES HAVE ANY REAL ABILITY TO RESTRAIN MARCHERS WITHOUT LOSING THEIR OWN CREDIBILITY- 8. MANSERGH SUGGESTED THE PARADES COMMISSION HAD BEEN PREPARED TO BAN THE MARCH ON THE GARVAGHY ROAD, BUT MAY NOT DO SO NOW. IN ANY CASE, THE ORANGE ORDER DID NOT ACCEPT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE PARADES COMMISSION, HE SAID, AND MIGHT PROCEED WITH THE MARCH REGARDLESS OF THE COMMISSION'S RULING. DIALOGUE WAS THE ONLY HOPE FOR AVERTING A CONFRONTATION. 9. MANSERGH AGREED STRONGLY WITH MY RECOMMENDATION THAT, DURING HIS UPCOMING VISIT TO NORTHERN IRELAND, SECRETARY OF COMMERCE DALEY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PUBLIC SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES TO STRESS, IN A NEUTRAL WAY, THE HUGE DAMAGE THAT COULD BE DONE TO PROSPECTS FOR INVESTMENT ON THE ISLAND BY A CONFLAGRATION OVER PARADES THIS SUMMER. COMMENTS BY THE SECRETARY SHOULD FOCUS ON THE NEED FOR THE ORANGE ORDER AND RESIDENTS' GROUPS TO PURSUE DIALOGUE AND COMPROMISE. THIS WOULD ECHO A RECENT CALL BY REV. ROY MAGEE, WHO HAD POINTED OUT THAT IT WAS THE REST OF THE COMMUNITY IN NORTHERN IRELAND THAT WOULD SUFFER IF "BATTLES" WERE WAGED OVER MARCHES, MANSERGH SAID. MANSERGH: POLICE REVIEW COMMISSION / 10. (C) DESPITE PRESS REPORTS DESCRIBING "COLD FURY" IN GOVERNMENT CIRCLES AT BRITISH ACCEPTANCE OF JUST ONE GOI NOMINEE TO THE POLICING REVIEW COMMISSION (GERARD LYNCH), MANSERGH SAID THIS DESCRIPTION OVERSTATED THE TAOISEACH'S FEELINGS. THERE WAS SOME "ANNOYANCE" AMONG GOI OFFICIALS, AND THE TAOISEACH HIMSELF WOULD HAVE PREFERRED HAVING TWO. NOMINATIONS ACCEPTED WITH MORE APPEAL TO NATIONALISTS BUT THE POLICING REVIEW COMMISSION WOULD CLEARLY BE OF A "HIGHER CALIBER" THAN THE PARADES COMMISSION. BERTIE AHERN HAD MET WITH CHRIS PATTEN LAST WEEK, AND HAD COME F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\VUN98\MSGS\M3320270.html Page 4 of 4 AWAY WITH A POSITIVE IMPRESSION. MANSERGH SAID THE IRISH HOPE PATTEN WILL MODEL HIMSELF ON GEORGE MITCHELL, RATHER THAN ON LORD WIDGERY (WHO CONDUCTED THE FLAWED REVIEW OF "BLOODY SUNDAY"), IN SEEKING A CAREFULLY BALANCED CONSENSUS ON A WAY FORWARD ON THIS DIFFICULT ISSUE. MANSERGH: PRISONERS/DECOMMISSIONING / 11. (C) OF GREATER CONCERN TO THE GOI AT THE MOMENT, HOWEVER, WAS PROPOSED BRITISH LEGISLATION ON PRISONER RELEASES, WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENTED TO THE GOI TODAY, MANSERGH TOLD ME. THERE APPEARED TO BE A "CLEAR LINKAGE" TO ARMS DECOMMISSIONING IN THE DRAFT LEGISLATION. DUBLIN WAS STILL CONSIDERING ITS RESPONSE, BUT IT WAS MANSERGH'S FIRM VIEW THAT THE PROVISIONS OF AN INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT (THE BELFAST AGREEMENT) SHOULD TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER DOMESTIC LEGISLATION IN THE EVENT OF A CONTRADICTION. AND, IN HIS VIEW, TO WITHHOLD THE RELEASE OF PRISONERS FOR ANY REASON OTHER THAN A RETURN TO VIOLENCE WOULD BE "PROVOCATIVE." HE DISCOURAGED ANY ATTEMPT TO "IMPORT" INTO THE AGREEMENT A NEW DEFINITION OF "CEASEFIRE." IF THE BRITISHHOSE TO GO THIS ROUTE, THE GOI "WOULD HAVE TO DISAGREE,' HE SAID. 12. MANSERGH SAID IRISH HISTORY WAS LITTERED WITH GOOD AGREEMENTS THAT HAD NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVELY. WHILE TONY BLAIR'S APPROACH WAS VERY POSITIVE (SEEKING TO KEEP BOTH SINN FEIN AND THE UNIONISTS ON BOARD), MANSERGH ASKED RHETORICALLY WHETHER THE PRIME MINISTER REALLY UNDERSTOOD WHAT WAS NEEDED TO FIND A SOLUTION. SMITH SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 01 SSN: 2970 TOR: 980604163739 M3320270 DIST: SIT: BANDLER BUTLER SUM2 SIT: NSC PRT: SIT {c2} F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\JUN98\MSGS\M3328321.html Page 1 of 4 Cable PREC: ROUTINE CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED LINE1: RAAUZYUW RUEHDLA3088 1611105-UUUU--RHEHAAX. LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH LINE3: R 101105Z JUN 98 LINE4: FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN OSRI: RUEHDL DTG: 101105Z JUN 98 ORIG: AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO: RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3547 INFO: RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0354 RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0670 SUBJ: REPUBLIC OF IRELAND POLITICAL ROUND-UP: JUNE 1-8, 1998 TEXT: UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 003088 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EFIN, UK, EI SUBJECT: REPUBLIC OF IRELAND POLITICAL ROUND-UP: JUNE 1-8, 1998 REF: (A) DUBLIN 2989 (B) DUBLIN 1129 SUMMARY / 1. THE FOLLOWING ITEMS CONCERN IRISH DOMESTIC POLITICS AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE APRIL 10 BELFAST AGREEMENT. POST WILL PERIODICALLY SUBMIT SUCH ITEMS AS A SUPPLEMENT TO OUR REGULAR REPORTING ON POLITICAL AFFAIRS AND THE NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS. THIS ROUND-UP COVERS THE PERIOD JUNE 1-JUNE 8: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER "DRAWS LINE IN SAND" FOR CONTINUED PARTICIPATION IN GOVERNMENT TAX EVASION FILE TO BE SENT TO PUBLIC PROSECUTOR AS CORRUPTION CONCERNS GROW AHERN GETS EMOTIONAL AT FIANNA FAIL CONFERENCE POLLSTER STRESSES IMPORANCE OF VOTE TRANSFERS IN JUNE 25 ELECTIONS TO NI ASSEMBLY AGRICULTURE MINISTER CANCELS APPEARANCE IN THE NORTH RUC IN GAA: TOO EARLY TO AMEND RULE 21 F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\JUN98\MSGS\M3328321.htmi Page 2 of 4 END SUMMARY / MARY HARNEY "DRAWS LINE IN SAND" FOR CONTINUED PARTICIPATION IN COALITION GOVERNMENT 2. MARY HARNEY, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND LEADER OF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS, HAS WARNED THAT SHE WILL WITHDRAW HER PARTY FROM GOVERNMENT IF FIANNA FAIL WITHHOLDS ANY FURTHER INFORMATION RELATING TO I [LAND'S ONGOING "PAYMENTS" TO POLITICIANS" SCANDAL. HER REMARKS ON NATIONAL IRISH RADIO ON JUNE 6 FOLLOWED LAST WEEK'S CONCESSION BY PRIME MINISTER AND FIANNA FAIL LEADER RERTIE AHERN THAT HE "REGRETTED" FAILING TO INFORM HARNEY OF INFORMATION, AVAILABLE TO HIM SINCE MARCH, CONCERNING POLITICAL "CONTRIBUTIONS" TO FORMER MINISTER AND PARTY COLLEAGUE, RAY BURKE, IN 1989 (REF A). THE LONGER-TERM IMPLICATION OF THIS AFFAIR IS ITS POSSIBLE IMPACT ON PROSPECTS FOR A FF- LABOUR COALITION AFTER THE NEXT ELECTIONS, DUE IN 2002: THE "DIRTIER" FIANNA FAIL APPEARS, THE MORE LIKELY LABOUR IS TO GO INTO COALITION WITH FINE GAEL, WHOSE LEADER, JOHN BRUTON, WOULD AGAIN BECOME PM. TAX EVASION ADDS TO WHIFF OF SCANDAL IN IRISH PUBLIC LIFE 3. MEANWHILE, HARNEY, WHO IS ALSO MINISTER FOR ENTERPRISE, TRADE, AND EMPLOYMENT, HAS REFERRED A THREE-MONTH OLD INVESTIGATION INTO POSSIBLE TAX EVASION BY CUSTCMERS OF NATIONAL IRISH BANK (NIB) TO THE DIRECTOR OF PURLIC PROSECUTIONS (REF B). THE INVESTIGATION WAS INITIALLY SPARKED BY MEDIA REPORTS IN JANUARY THAT NIB HAD SOLD OFF-SHORE INSURANCE PRODUCTS SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO FACILITATE TAX EVASION BY NIR CUSTOMERS, AND IS THOUGHT TO INVOLVE A NUMBER OF "PROMINENT" WEALTHY IRISH BUSINESS PEOPLE. ALTHOUGH THE "PAYMENTS TO POLITICIANS" AND NIB INVESTIGATIONS ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED, THEY BOTH FORM IMPORTANT PARTS OF ONGOING EFFORTS HERE TO SHED LIGHT ON WHAT ARE NOW WIDELY PERCEIVED TO HAVE BEEN ENDEMIC LEVELS OF TAX EVASION AND POLITICAL CORRUPTION IN THE LATE 1980S AND EARLY 1990S. AHERN: "WE ARE HONEST AND STRAIGHT PEOPLE" 4. INSISTING THAT FIANNA FAIL IS COMPOSED OF "HONEST AND STRAIGHT PEOPLE," PM BERTIE AHERN TOLD A WEEKEND FF WOMEN'S CONFERENCE IN DUBLIN ON JUNE 6 THAT PAST PROBLEMS ARE BEING CORRECTED. TEARS FORMED IN AHERN'S EYES AS HE VOWED NOT TO ALLOW PEOPLE TO "JUDGE THE PRESENT WITH WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST." THE CONFERENCE ALSO PRESAGED POTENTIAL FRICTION BETWEEN FIANNA FAIL AND SINN FEIN, AS EMBOFF OBSERVED SOME FF DELEGATES QUESTIONING THE PRESENCE ON THE SPEAKER'S F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD031\JUN98\MSGS\M3328321.html Page 3 of 4 DAIS OF SF'S RAIRBRE (BARBARA) DE BRUN ON THE GROUNDS THAT SINN FEIN WAS SEEKING TO CHALLENGE FIANNA FAIL IN THE REPUBLIC. IRISH POLLSTER STRESSES IMPORTANCE OF VOTE TRANSFERS IN JUNE 25 ELECTIONS TO NI ASSEMBLY UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 DUBLIN 003088 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EFIN, UK, EI SUBJECT: REPUBLIC OF IRELAND POLITICAL ROUND-UP: JUNE 1-8, 1998 REF: (A) DUBLIN 2989 (B) DUBLIN 1129 5. JACK JONES, WHOSE MRBI POLLS IN THE "IRISH TIMES" HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ON TARGET, TOLD US JUNE 8 THAT AN ANALYSIS SOON TO BE PUBLISHED WILL HIGHLIGHT THE ROLE OF VOTE TRANSFERS IN THE UPCOMING NI ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS. HE ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 80 PERCENT OF THE SEATS WILL BE FILLED BY NON-FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES I.E., SECOND OR THIRD PREFERENCES WILL DETERMINE WHO ACTUALLY WINS. ALTHOUGH HE ESTIMATES TWO-THIRDS OF THOSE WHO WERE "UNDECIDED" VOTED YES IN THE MAY 22 REFERENDUM, HE IS FAR FROM PREDICTING THE EXTENT TO WHICH DISSIDENT UNIONISTS MAY OR MAY NOT RECEIVE TRANSFER VOTES. "THERE IS A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE TO COPPER-FASTEN THE ASSEMBLY WITH "YES" VOTERS, HE CAUTIONED. AGRICULTURE MINISTER CANCELS MEETING IN NORTH 6. AGRICULTURE MINISTER JOE WALSH IS SAYING THAT, BASED ON "SIGNALS" HE RECEIVED FROM AUTHORITIES IN NORTHERN IRELAND, HE DECIDED TO CANCEL AN APPEARANCE AT A JUNE 8 CROSS-BORDER AGRICULTURAL EVENT IN ENNISKILLEN, CO. FERMANAGH, IN DEFERENCE TO UNIONIST SENSITIVITIES DURING THE RUN-UP TOTHE JUNE 25 NI ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS. MEDIA REPORTS QUOTE THE BRITISH MINISTER RESPONSIRLE FOR NI AGRICULTURAL AFFAIRS AS DENYING SENDING ANY SUCH SIGNAL. THE INCIDENT POINTS OUT THE CONTINUING SENSITIVITY - - FOR BOTH SIDES INHERENT IN CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITIES OF ANY FORM. RUC IN GAA: NO EARLY CHANGE IN RULE 21 7. DESPITE EFFORTS BY THE GAELIC ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION'S LEADERSHIP TO DROP THE BAN ON GAA MEMBERSHIP FOR MEMBERS OF THE BRITISH ARMY OR RUC, GAA DELEGATES VOTED IN DUBLIN LAST WEEKEND NOT TO AMEND RULE 21 UNTIL RUC REFORM IS A REALITY. GAA REPRESENTATIVES FROM NORTHERN IRELAND LED THE RESISTANCE TO CHANGE, DESPITE THE LEADERSHIP'S PLEA THAT AMENDING RULE 21 NOW WOULD SEND A POSITIVE F:\Cable\Data Source\Cables\CD031\JUN98\MSGS\M3328321.html Page 4 of 4 SIGNAL FOLLOWING RATIFICATION OF THE BELFAST AGREEMENT. A DISAPPOINTED ARCHBISHOP DERMOT CLIFFORD, PATRON OF THE GAA, HAS ACCUSED THE ASSOCIATION OF REING OUT OF STEP IN THE MARCH TOWARD PEACE. UDP LEADER GARY MCMICHAEL HAS VOWED TO SEEK SANCTIONS ON THE GAA. THE GOVERNING BODY FOR HURLING AND GAELIC FOOTBALL, THE GAA HAS LONG BEEN A STANDARD BEARER FOR IRISH CULTURE UNDER BRITISH RULE. SMITH SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 02 <^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 02 SSN: 3088 <^SSN>3088 TOR: 980610073455 M3328321 <^TOR>980610073617 M3328324 DIST: SIT: BANDLER BUTLER SIT: NSC F:\Cab!e\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\JUL98\MSGS\M3367911.hml Page 1 of 3 Cable PREC: PRIORITY CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED LINE1: PAAUZYUW RUEHBLA0270 1891434-UUUU--RHEHAAX. LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH LINE3: P 081434Z JUL 98 LINE4: FM AMCONSUL BELFAST OSRI: RUEHBL DTG: 081434Z JUL 98 ORIG: AMCONSUL BELFAST TO: RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9777 INFO: RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0321 RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 6902 RUEHED/AMCONSUL EDINBURGH 0071 SUBJ: NORTHERN IRELAND SITREP - JULY 8 TEXT: UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELFAST 0270 NSC FOR STEINBERG/BUTLER LONDON FOR POL/HALL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC, PGOV, PREL, PTER, CASC, UK, EI SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND SITREP - JULY 8 REF: A) BELFAST 0262 B) BELFAST 0266 1. SUMMARY: A THIRD NIGHT OF RIOTING IN BELFAST AND OTHER TOWNS IN NORTHERN IRELAND WAS MARKED BY CONTINUED TRAFFIC DISRUPTIONS, PETROL BOMB ATTACKS, MALICIOUS VANDALISM, AND CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN LOYALIST RIOTERS AND THE POLICE. LIVE ROUNDS WERE FIRED AT POLICE IN ANTRIM, NEWTONARDS, AND EAST BELFAST. THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE OVERALL, HOWEVER, WAS LOWER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. IMPROMPTU ORANGEMEN PARADES IN SUPPORT OF THE DRUMCREE MARCH WERE HELD THROUGHOUT BELFAST. DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER SEAMUS MALLON MET WITH A CHILLY RECEPTION FROM NATIONALIST RESIDENTS ON GARVAGHY ROAD. THE RESIDENTS FEEL INCREASED TENSION AS MORE ORANGEMEN CONTINUE TO GATHER AT DRUMCREE. POLITICIANS ARE CALLING FOR RESTRAINT AND ACCOMODATION, BUT ORANGE LEADERS ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCES TO RESOLVE THE DRUMCREE CRISIS THROUGH THEIR MEETING TOMORROW WITH PM TONY BLAIR. END SUMMARY. 2. THE RUC CONTINUED RUNNING BATTLES WITH PROTESTING MOBS LAST NIGHT IN BELFAST AND OTHER PROVINICAL TOWNS. IN THE BELVOIR PARK AREA OF BELFAST, AS WELL AS IN ARMAGH AND DERRY, MOBS F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\JUL98\MSGS\M3367911.html Page 2 of 3 HURLED PETROL BOMBS AT POLICE AND SET UP ROAD BLOCKS. ONE BUS WAS HIJACKED AND SET ON FIRE ON DONEGAL STREET IN WEST BELFAST. MORE DISTURBINGLY, LIVE ROUNDS WERE AGAIN FIRED AT POLICE, THIS TIME IN ANTRIM, NEWTONARDS, AND EAST BELFAST. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED. 3. ATTACKS ON FAMILIES AND PROPERTY OCCURED IN BELFAST AND OTHER PROVINICIAL TOWNS LAST NIGHT. IN NORTH BELFAST, A FAMILY WAS FORCED OUT OF ITS HOME BY VANDALS HURLING PETROL BOMBS. IN EAST BELFAST, A HOSTEL FOR HOMELESS WAS SIMILARLY ATTACKED. IN CARRICKFERGUS, A GUEST HOUSE WAS PETROL BOMBED. IN LISBURN, A PRIMARY SCHOOL WAS VANDALIZED. IN LURGAN, PETROL AND NAIL BOMBS WERE THROWN AT SEVERAL HOUSES. 4. STATISTICS ON THE VIOLENCE OF THE LAST FOUR DAYS RELEASED BY THE RUC INDICATED OVER 400 SEPARATE ATTACKS ON MEMBERS OF THE RUC, INCLUDING 12 SHOOTINGS AND 25 BOMBINGS. SECRETARY OF STATE FOR NORTHERN IRELAND MO MOWLAM STATED THAT THE REPEATED AND WIDESPREAD ATTACKS WERE A DELIBERATE ATTEMPT TO STRETCH THE RESOURCES OF THE RUC. 5. IN CONTRAST TO THE CONTINUED VIOLENCE OF SOME ELEMENTS OF LOYALIST COMMUNITY, LOCAL ORANGE LODGES IN BELFAST ORGANIZED IMPROMPTU AND FOR THE MOST PART PEACEFUL PARADES LAST NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CITY, INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN AREA. THESE MARCHES WERE TECHNICALLY ILLEGAL BECAUSE ORGANIZERS DID NOT PROVIDE THE RUC WITH 28 DAYS NOTICE OF THEIR INTENT TO MARCH. SPECULATION EXISTS THAT LAST NIGHT'S BRAZIL-HOLLAND WORLD CUP SOCCER MATCH MAY ALSO HAVE LIMITED SOME CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR STEMMING FROM THE MARCHES. 6. IN DRUMCREE, TENSIONS CONTINUE TO RISE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BARRIER AS LOYALISTS CROWDS CONFRONTED RUC FORCES ON BOTH ENDS OF THE CONTESTED GARVAGHY ROAD. NATIONALIST RESIDENTS OF GARVAGHY ROAD REACTED NEGATIOLY TO DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER SEAMUS MALLON'S CALL FOR ACCOMODAION. IN ADDITION, MORE ORANGEMEN CONTINUE TO GATHER AT PORTADOWN. REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 4000 ORANGEMEN FROM DERRY AND 1000 FROM FERMANAGH ARRIVED YESTERDAY IN SUPPORT OF THEIR PORTADOWN BRETHREN. THE BRITIH GOVERNMENT ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT IT WOULD SEND IN ADDITIONAL 800 TROOPS TO THE AREA. 7. LEADERS FROM ALL POINTS ON THE POLITICAL UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 BELFAST 0270 NSC FOR STEINBERG/BUTLER LONDON FOR POL/HALL F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\JUL98\MSGS\M3367911.html Page 3 of 3 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC, PGOV, PREL, PTER, CASC, UK, EI SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND SITREP - JULY 8 REF: A) BELFAST 0262 B) BELFAST 0266 SPECTRUM, INCLUDING FIRST MINISTER DAVID TRIMBLE OF THE UUP, SEAMUS MALLON OF THE SDLP, GERRY ADAMS OF SINN FEIN, AS WELL AS GARY MCMICHAEL OF THE UDP AND DAVID ERVINE OF THE PUP, HAVE CALLED FOR NON- VIOLENCE AND ACCOMODATION. HOWEVER, ORANGEMEN SCHEDULED TO MEET WITH PM TONY BLAIR TOMORROW ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCES OF REACHING A SOLUTION TO THE DRUMCREE CRISIS WITHOUT A REVERSAL OF THE DECISION BY THE PARADES COMMISSION. STEPHENS SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 02 <^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 02 SSN: 0270 <^SSN>0270 TOR: 980708103739 M3367911 <^TOR>980708103754 M3367912 DIST: SIT: BANDLER BUTLER DAVIDSON RAGAN SCHWARTZ SUM2 SIT: NSC PRT: HACHIGIAN SIT {c2} STEINBERG F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.html Page 1 of 9 Cable PREC: IMMEDIATE CLASS: UNCLASSIFIED LINE1: OAAUZYUW RUEHLOA8428 2321102-UUUU--RHEHAAA. LINE2: ZNR UUUUU ZZH LINE3: O 201102Z AUG 98 LINE4: FM AMEMBASSY LONDON OSRI: RUEHLO DTG: 201102Z AUG 98 ORIG: AMEMBASSY LONDON TO: RUEHIA/USIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0901 INFO: RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RUEBBEA/DOT WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8654 RHEHAAA/WHITEHOUSE WASHDC RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0587 RUEHOL/AMEMBASSY BONN 1045 RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 0503 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 1139 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1043 RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 0891 RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0090 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0806 RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE VIENNA 0122 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0688 RUEHRL/USOFFICE BERLIN 0033 RUFTVFA/3AF RAF MILDENHALL UK//PA// RHDLCNE/CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//019// SUBJ: LONDON MEDIA REACTION REPORT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 1998 A) BROADCAST MEDIA THE TOP STORIES ARE FACTUAL REPORTS ON THE CLINTON-LEWINSKY SAGA AND THE AFTERMATH OF THE OMAGH BOMBING. TEXT: INCOMPLETE MESSAGE UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 LONDON 008428 USIA PERISHABLE INFORMATION - DO NOT SERVICE USIA FOR I/GWEU; R/C; R/MR; WEU; NEA; VOA NEWS/CA; PL LSECREST; B/TV/WP; STATE FOR EUR/P AND PLS PASS ACDA/PA; EUR/PA; EUR/P/SP; EUR/WE; EUR/NE; IO/CU; NEA/P; EB/TT; INR/P; PM; S/IR; CSD ISA FOR ILN; FOR NEA; OASD/PA; F:\Cable\Data Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.htm1 Page 2 of 9 USDOC PASS USTR/PA; WHITEHOUSE FOR NSC-WEUROPE, NSC FOR BERGER; USMISSION USNATO FOR USIS; PARIS FOR USIS; UNESCO; OECD; E.O. 12958: N/A SUBJECT: LONDON MEDIA REACTION REPORT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 1998 A) BROADCAST MEDIA THE TOP STORIES ARE FACTUAL REPORTS ON THE CLINTON-LEWINSKY SAGA AND THE AFTERMATH OF THE OMAGH BOMBING. B) MAJOR PRESS STORIES 1. CLINTON 2. AFRICAN BOMBINGS 3. NORTHERN IRELAND C) SUMMARY 1. CLINTON THE PAPERS ARE FULL OF POST MORTEMS ON THE PRESIDENT'S SPEECH AND REPORTS ON THE SUPPOSED LEWINSKY-TIE MATTER, AS WELL AS THE REACTION OF AMERICANS POLITICIANS AND THE IMPACT OF THE SITUATION ON THE PRESIDENT'S ABILITY TO WIELD POWER. 2. AFRICAN BOMBINGS THERE ARE SEVERAL REPORTS ON FBI ACTIVITIES IN KENYA AND SPECULATION ON WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BOMBINGS IN EAST AFRICA. 3. NORTHERN IRELAND THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON THE NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS OF THE OMAGH BOMBING ARE DISCUSSED IN MOST PAPERS. D) TEXT 1. CLINTON "RESIGN CALL BY DEMOCRATS" IN THE CONSERVATIVE "DAILY TELEGRAPH" (8/20) : "FELLOW DEMOCRATS ROUNDED ON PRESIDENT CLINTON YESTERDAY WITH STINGING CRITICISM OF HIS CONDUCT THAT MANY REPUBLICANS SEEMED RELUCTANT TO VOICE. "APART FROM GENUINE DISILLUSIONMENT OVER MR. CLINTON'S CONDUCT, MANY DEMOCRATS SAW HIS TELEVISION CONFESSION AS JEOPARDIZING THEIR CHANCES OF SUCCESS IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS IN TWO MONTHS' TIME." "DEMOCRATS TURN ON PRESIDENT AFTER APOLOGY" (8/20) F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.html Page 3 of 9 IN THE CONSERVATIVE "TIMES" (8/20) "LEADING DEMOCRATS YESTERDAY TURNED ON PRESIDENT CLINTON, VYING TO DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM HIM. THOSE WHO ARE FACING TOUGH COMPETITION FOR RE-ELECTION, OR NURSE AMBITIONS TO REACH THE WHITE HOUSE ITSELF, WERE PARTICULARLY CRITICAL. "THE REPUBLICAN-CONTROLLED CONGRESS WILL NOW METHODICALLY BLOCK MR'. CLINTON'S FAVORITE PIECES OF THE BUDGET BILL, SUCH AS UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 07 LONDON 008428 USIA PERISHABLE INFORMATION - DO NOT SERVICE USIA FOR I/GWEU; R/C; R/MR; WEU; NEA; VOA NEWS/CA; PL LSECREST; B/TV/WP; STATE FOR EUR/P AND PLS PASS ACDA/PA; EUR/PA; EUR/P/SP; EUR/WE; EUR/NE; IO/CU; NEA/P; EB/TT; INR/P; PM; S/IR; CSD ISA FOR ILN; FOR NEA; OASD/PA; USDOC PASS USTR/PA; WHITEHOUSE FOR NSC-WEUROPE, NSC FOR BERGER; USMISSION USNATO FOR USIS; PARIS FOR USIS; UNESCO; OECD; 12958 N/A SUBJECT: LONDON MEDIA REACTION REPORT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 1998 EDUCATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS. THE SENATE MAY ALSO PROVE IMPLACABLE ON SCORES OF JUDICIAL AND AMBASSADORIAL APPOINTMENTS WAITING FOR ITS APPROVAL." "CLINTON LOSES HIS SUPPORT IN CONGRESS" IN THE CENTRIST "INDEPENDENT" (8/20) "EDITORIAL COMMENT IN LEADING NEWSPAPERS - THE FIRST DAY OF CONSIDERED COMMENT IN MOST OF THE EAST COAST PRESS - WAS HIGHLY UNSYMPATHETIC, EVEN IN NOTABLY LIBERAL PAPERS SUCH AS "THE NEW. YORK TIMES" AND "WASHINGTON POST", "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL", WHICH HAS TAKEN A TOUGH ANTI-CLINTON LINE EVER SINCE ALLEGATIONS ABOUT HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH MS LEWINSKY FIRST BROKE IN JANUARY, PRINTED A BATTERY OF COMMENT. THIS WAS LED BY A COLUMN HEADED: "WHY HE MUST GO" FROM THE CONSERVATIVE COMMENTATOR, WILLIAM BENNETT, WHO DESCRIBED MR CLINTON'S TELEVISION ADDRESS AS "THE MOST DECEPTIVE, SHAMELESS AND SELF-PITYING SPEECH EVER DELIVERED BY AN AMERICAN PRESIDENT". "BIRTHDAY BOY FINDS NO TIME TO PARTY" IN THE LIBERAL "GUARDIAN" (8/20) "BILL CLINTON'S GRIP ON THE PRESIDENCY BEGAN TO LOOK MORE VULNERABLE YESTERDAY. HIS EFFORTS TO RIDE OUT THE STORM AFTER HIS ADMISSION OF AN AFFAIR WITH MONICA LEWINSKY CAME UNDER RENEWED LEGAL AND POLITICAL CHALLENGE AS THE FORMER WHITE7HOSE INTERN PREPARED TO GIVE FRESH EVIDENCE TO A WASHINGTON GRAND JURY TODAY." F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.html Page 4 of 9 "CLINTON'S AIDES DISMISS DISPUTE RUMORS" "THE WHITE HOUSE YESTERDAY SOUGHT TO BOLSTER SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENBILL CLINTON AS FRESH DETAILS EMERGED ABOUT DISPUTES BETWEEN HIS CLOSEST ADVISERS OVER HIS ADMISSION OF AN INAPPROPRIATE RELATIONSHIP WITH MONICA LEWINSKY. "WITH MR CLINTON ON VACATION, TOP AIDES DISMISSED RUMORS OF UNHAPPINESS AMONG SENIOR WHITE HOUSE STAFF AT MR CLINTON'S TELEVISED STATEMENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. "WHILE MR. CLINTON'S GAMBLE HAS so FAR PAID OFF WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC, A BACKLASH APPEARS TO BE BUILDING ON CAPITOL HILL AND IN THE MEDIA." "WOUNDED PRESIDENT CAN STILL STRIKE ABROAD" IN THE CENTRIST "INDEPENDENT" (8/20) "THE PILLARS OF THE PRESIDENT'S POWER IN FOREIGN POLICY ARE THREEFOLDPOLITICAL, DIPLOMATIC, AND MILITARY. POLITICALLY, THE PRESIDENT WAS ALREADY WEAK AND IS NOW MORE SO. HE CANNOT REALISTICALLY EXPECT TO GET MANY OF HIS TOP PRIORITIES THROUGH CONGRESS. "DIPLOMATICALLY, AMERICA REMAINS AMERICA. IT CONTINUES TO WIELD ENORMOUS POWER IN EVERY KEY ARENA OF DECISION-MAKING. BUT AT THE MARGINS, IT WILL BE THAT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO GET ALLIES TO PLAY ALONG WHEN THE PRESIDENT IS so OBVIOUSLY WEAKENED; AND UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 07 LONDON 008428 USIA PERISHABLE INFORMATION - DO NOT SERVICE USIA FOR I/GWEU; R/C; R/MR; WEU; NEA; VOA NEWS/CA; PL LSECREST; B/TV/WP; STATE FOR EUR/P AND PLS PASS ACDA/PA; EUR/PA; EUR/P/SP; EUR/WE; EUR/NE; IO/CU; NEA/P; EB/TT; INR/P; PM; S/IR; CSD ISA FOR ILN; FOR NEA; OASD/PA; USDOC PASS USTR/PA; WHITEHOUSE FOR NSC-WEUROPE, NSC FOR BERGER; USMISSION USNATO FOR USIS; PARIS FOR USIS; UNESCO; OECD; E.O. 12958:N/A SUBJECT: LONDON MEDIA REACTION REPORT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 1998 OPRAH WITH NUKES." 2. AFRICAN BOMBINGS "EMBASSY BOMBERS PART OF HUGE NETWORK" FROM THE CONSERVATIVE "DAILY TELEGRAPH" (8/20) "THE BOMBERS WHO KILLED MORE THAN 250 PEOPLE IN EXPLOSIONS AT TWO U.S. EMBASSIES IN AFRICA WERE PART OF A WORLDWIDE NETWORK OF ISLAMIC TERRORISTS ATTACKING AMERICAN INTEREST, IT WAS CLAIMED YESTERDAY. REPUTEDLY LED BY OSAMA BIN LADEN, A DISSIDENT SAUDI F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.html Page 5 of 9 MILLIONAIRE IN HIDING IN AFGHANISTAN, THE TERROR GROUP IS SAID TO HAVE A MEMBERSHIP OF BETWEEN 4,000 AND 5,000 MILITANTS FROM VARIOUS MUSLIM COUNTRIES, SUPPORTED BY A HUGE ARSENAL OF AIR-TO-AIR M BASED ON INFORMATION FROM PAKISTANI INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS QUOTED IN YESTERDAY'S WASHINGTON POST, CAME AS THE HUNT FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPLOSIONS AT THE EMBASSIES IN KENYA AND TANZANIA APPEARED TO BE PRODUCING UNEXPECTEDLY RAPID RESULTS." "U.S. -BACKED REBELS TURN AGAINST THE WEST" FROM THE INDEPENDENT "FINANCIAL TIMES" (8/20) "WHEN THE U.S. THIS WEEK HALVED ITS EMBASSY STAFF IN PAKISTAN AS A PROTECTIVE MEASURE AGAINST FURTHER BOMB ATTACKS ON AMERICAN TARGETS ABROAD, IT WAS ALSO ACKNOWLEDGING THAT NEIGHBORING AFGHANISTAN WAS AND REMAINS THE INCUBATOR OF THE MOST UNCOMPROMISING AND ANTI-WESTERN ISLAMIST FIGHTERS. INDEED, U.S. INVESTIGATORS ARE WORKING ON THE SUSPICION THAT THE TRUCK-BOMBINGS OF WERE ORDERED FROM AFGHANISTAN, POSSIBLY BY OSAMA BIN LADEN, AND WEALTHY SAUDI DISSIDENT WHO LEADS THE ARAB AFGHANS WHILE THE ARAB AFGHAN SAGA HAS ITS ORIGINS IN THE COLD WAR, IT HAS BECOME A POST-COLD WAR STORY OF A DEADLY FORM OF PROLIFERATION WHICH THE U.S., WHICH OVER-SAW THE AFGHANI RESISTANCE TO SOVIET RULE, HAS GOOD REASON TO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT. PROBABLY TENS OF THOUSAND OF ARAB VOLUNTEERS WERE DRAFTED INTO THE JIHAD (HOLY WAR) AGAINST THE RED ARMY, BLESSED AND ARMED BY THE CIA, FINANCED AND NURTURED BY SAUDI ARABIA, WITH LOGISTICS AND BORDER SUPPORT LAID ON BY PAKISTANI INTELLIGENCE. WHILE THIS JOINT VENTURE DELIVERED A SATISFYINGLY VIETNAM-STYLE HUMILIATION TO THE CRUMBLING SOVIET EMPIRE, IT ALSO GAVE BIRTH TO A FRANKENSTEIN'S MONSTER: AN ITINERANT ARMYNF HOLY WARRIORS AGAINST THE WEST AND TITS ARAB AND MOSLEM ALLIES DESPITE ALL THIS, THE U.S. HAS BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND. WASHINGTON'S ANTI-TERRORIST POLICY HAS FOCUSED ON STATE SPONSORS OF TERRORISM, LISTING SEVEN "ROGUE" STATES, AMONG THEM IRAN, IRAQ, LIBYA, SUDAN AND SYRIA. THE PHENOMENON IT APPEARS TO BE FACING NOW, HOWEVER, IS MORE FRAGMENTED, OFFERING NO CLEAR TARGET FOR REPRISALS BUT WITH AN OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY EQUIVALENT TO STATE SPONSORSHIP, WHICH THE U.S. ITSELF IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR HAVING PROVIDED THROUGH ITS AFGHANISTAN VENTURE.' 3. NORTHERN IRELAND "LL REBEL REPUBLICANS' CEASEFIRE BRING REAL PEACE?" FROM THE CONSERVATIVE "TIMES" (8/20) "EVEN WITHIN REPUBLICANISM THE REAL IRA LOOKED ISOLATED AND DISCREDITED, AND NO TERRORIST GROUP COOPERATE WITHOUT A MEASURE UNCLAS SECTION 05 OF 07 LONDON 008428 USIA PERISHABLE INFORMATION - DO NOT SERVICE USIA FOR I/GWEU; R/C; R/MR; WEU; NEA; VOA NEWS/CA; PL LSECREST; B/TV/WP; STATE FOR EUR/P AND PLS PASS ACDA/PA; EUR/PA; EUR/P/SP; EUR/WE; EUR/NE; IO/CU; NEA/P; EB/TT; INR/P; PM; S/IR; CSD ISA FOR ILN; FOR NEA; OASD/PA; USDOC PASS USTR/PA; Page 6 of 9 WHITEHOUSE FOR NSC-WEUROPE, NSC FOR BERGER; USMISSION USNATO FOR USIS; PARIS FOR USIS; UNESCO; OECD; E. O. 12958 N/A SUBJET: LONDON MEDIA REACTION REPORT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 1998 OF SUPPORT WITHIN ITS OWN COMMUNITY. THE FEAR IS, HOWEVER, THAT THE REAL IRA WILL DO WHAT THE PROVISIONAL IRA DID AFTER THE 1987 ENNISKILLEN BOMB - GO TO GROUND UNTIL THE HORROR FADES, THEN STRIKE AGAIN. IF THAT HAPPENS DAVID TRIMBLE, NORTHERN IRELAND'S FIRST MINISTER, WILL FACE A MUTINY BY FELLOW UNIONISTS WHO QUESTION AN ACCORD THAT INVOLVES GREAT SACRIFICES BUT HAS YET TO DELIVER PEACE. THEY WILL NOT TOLERATE WHAT PAUL BEW, A POLITICS PROFESSOR AT QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY, BELFAST, YESTERDAY DESCRIBED AS A "GOOD COP, BAD COP" SCENARIO WHEREBY SINN FEIN MEMBERS INSIDE THE NEW GOVERNMENT DEMAND CONCESSIONS TO AVERT REPUBLICAN VIOLENCE OUTSIDE.' "IRISH IN TERROR CRACKDOWN" IN THE LIBERAL "GUARDIAN" (8/20) "BERTIE AHERN, THE IRISH PRIME MINISTER, AWARE THAT THE REAL IRA'S LEADERSHIP IS BASED IN THE REPUBLIC, REVEALED A PACKAGE OF WHAT HE CALLED DRACONIAN MEASURES AGAINST RENEGADE REPUBLICAN TERROnSTS. THE ANNOUNCEMENT CAME AFTER AN EMERGENCY CABINET MEETING. "OMAGH BOMB ATTACK MAY SPELL THE END FOR THE REAL IRA" IN THE INDEPENDENT "FINANCIAL TIMES" (8/20) "WITH EACH FRESH ATROCITY IN NORTHERN IRELAND, IT HAS BECOME TRADITIONAL TO EXPRESS HOPES THAT THE VICTIMS WILL BE THE LAST. WITH REMARKABLE SPEED, IN THE WAKE OF THE OMAGH BOMBING, HOPES THIS TIME MAY JUST COME TRUE - AT LEAST AS FAR AS BOMBINGS BY THE REAL IRA ARE CONCERNED.' "BREAKING THE CYCLE" IN THE CONSERVATIVE "TIMES" (8/20) "THE REAL IRA AND THE PROVISIONAL IRA HAVE THIS IN COMMON: IF THEY WERE SERIOUS ABOUT PEACE THEN THEIR WEAPONS WOULD BE SURRENDERED, NOT SUSPENDED. REPUBLICANS SHOULD BE TOLD THAT DEMOCRATS DO NOT NEED DETONATORS, AND THAT UNLESS THEY ARE SURRENDERED, THE LEVERS OF POWER WILL ALWAYS BE BEYOND REACH. "UNLESS VIOLENCE IS NET WITH AN EXEMPLARY RESPONSE THERE WILL ALWAYS BE REPUBLICANS, AND LOYALISTS, WHO ARE PREPARED TO PICK UP THE WEAPONS LEFT BEYOND WHEN INDIVIDUAL TERRORISTS ARE INCARCERATED. ONLY IS VIOLENCE, OR THE THREAT OF IT, IS COUNTERED WITH A REFUSAL TO BEND WILL TERRORISTS RECOGNIZE THAT THEIR TACTICS ARE FUTILE. THAT IS WHY THE RIGHT ANSWER TO OMAGH IS CLOSING DEMOCRACY'S DOOR TO THOSE WHO WOULD CROSS THE THRESHOLD ARMED, OR WITH ARMS AT THEIR COMMAND.' F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.hml Page 7 of 9 "ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO MORE NEEDED FOR SINN FEIN" IN THE CENTRIST "INDEPENDENT" (8/20) "THE OMAGH BOMB WILL BE REMEMBERED IN THE HISTORY OF THE PEACE PROCESS FOR THE CONDEMNATION SINN FEIN HAS HEAPED ON THE SO CALLED "REAL IRA". WE MUST HOPE THAT THE IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN THAT PART OF U.S. SOCIETY THAT HAS UNCLAS SECTION 06 OF 07 LONDON 008428 USIA PERISHABLE INFORMATION - DO NOT SERVICE USIA FOR I/GWEU; R/C; R/MR; WEU; NEA; VOA NEWS/CA; PL LSECREST; B/TV/WP; STATE FOR EUR/P AND PLS PASS ACDA/PA; EUR/PA; EUR/P/SP; EUR/WE; EUR/NE; IO/CU; NEA/P; EB/TT; INR/P; PM; S/IR; CSD ISA FOR ILN; FOR NEA; OASD/PA; USDOC PASS USTR/PA; WHITEHOUSE FOR NSC-WEUROPE, NSC FOR BERGER; USMISSION USNATO FOR USIS; PARIS FOR USIS; UNESCO; OECD; E.0.12958:N/A SUBJECT: LONDON MEDIA REACTION REPORT, THURSDAY, A`GUST 20, 1998 HABITUALLY BANKROLLED REPUBLICAN VIOLENCE UNDER THE IMPRESSION THAT THE ISSUE IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. "TOO OFTEN IN U.S. IRISH BARS, SECOND, THIRD AND FOURTH GENERATION IRISH-AMERICANS ARE HEARD TO EXPRESS VIEWS THAT BETRAY A PROFOUND IGNORANCE OF THE "OLDE COUNTREE" AND ITS MODERN HISTORY. BY CONDEMNING THE bMB IN CO, TYRONE, SINN FEIN HAS REACHED AN AUDIENCE THAT NO AMOUNT OF PEACEFUL WORDS FROM HEADS OF STATE OR MODERATE POLITICAL LEADERS PREVIOUSLY COULD." "PEOPLE POWER, FROM THE HORROR, HOPE" IN THE LIBERAL "THE GUARDIAN" (8/20) "FOR THE SECOND TIME IN AS MANY MONTHS, AN ATROCITY DESIGNED TO DRIVE A STAKE THROUGH THE HEART OF THE IRISH PEACE PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE ACHIEVED<@CTLY THE OPPOSITE RESULT, LAST MONTH, THE LOYALISTS WHO BURNED THREE CHILDREN TO DEATH IN BALLYMONEY CREATED SUCH A WAVE OF REVULSION AMONG ORDINARY UNIONISTS THAT THEY BROKE THE BACK OF THE DRUQDE PROTESTS AND DECISIVELY ISOLATED THAT MOST BACKWARD WING OF ORANGEISM. NOW THE MASSACRE PERPETRATED BY THE "REAL IRA" IN OMAG7 - A BOMBING INTENDED TO CUT THE POLITICAL GROUND FROM BENEATH BOTH GERRY ADAMS AND DAVID TRIMBLE - HAS LEFT THE SPLINTER GROUP'LEADERS RUNNING FOREVER IN THE FACE OF HOSTILITY AND RAGE FROM BOTH THE REPUBLICAN MAINSTREAM AND THE WIDER NATIONALIST POPULATION. "IRISH BACKLASH" IN TcMINDEPENDENT "FINANCIAL TIMES" (8/20) F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.html Page 8 of 9 "THE BACKLASH AGAINST THE BOMBERS PROVIDES AN IDEAL OPPORTUNITY TO DESTROY THESE SPLINTER GROUPS BEFORE THEY CAN BUILD UP AN COHERENCE OR MYSTIQUE OF THEIR OWN. IT IS AN EXCELLENT MOMENT TO REINFORCE CO-OPERATION BETWEEN SECURITY FORCES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER." "UNITED FRONT WILL DEFEAT THESE KILLERS" IN THE LEFT-OF-CENTER TABLOID "THE DAILY MIRROR" (8/20) "THERE HAVE BEEN TOO MANY FALSE DAWNS IN THE BLOODY HISTORY OF IRELAND BUT IT MAY REALLY BE THAT THIS WEEK HAS SEEN SOMETHING TOTALLY NEW. THAT WOULD BE WONDERFUL FOR ALL THE PEOPLE OF IRELAND." "STOP PUSSYFOOTING - LOCK THEM UP" IN THE CENTRIST "THE SCOTSMAN" (8/20) "LET'S NOT PUSSYFOOT. INTERNMENT OUGHT TO BE USED AGAINST THE PEOPLE SUSPECTED OF THE OMAGH BOMB AND LET'S SAY IT, INTERNMENT WILL BE USED. "THE ENEMY IS ISOLATED, IDENTIFIED, HATED AND SMALL. INTERNMENT WAS DESIGNED FOR IT. THER%'IS NO POINT IN BEING FLINCHINGLY APOLOGETIC, INDICATING THAT IT WON'T BE FOR ONG OR IN BEING AFRAID OF THE WORD. WE LIVE IN AN AGE OF EUPHEMISM, AND MARJORIE MOWLAM, NICE WOMAN THAT SHE IS, USES TVEM LIKE WET FLOUR. UNCLAS SECTION 07 OF 07 LONDON 008428 USIA PERISHABLE INFORMATION - DO NOT SERVICE USIA FOR I/GWEU; R/C; R/MR; WEU; NEA; VOA NEWS/CA; PL LSECREST; B/TV/WP; STATE FOR EUR/P AND PLS PASS ACDA/PA; EUR/PA; EUR/P/SP; EUR/WE; EUR/NE; IO/CU; NEA/P; EB/TT; INR/P; PM; S/IR; CSD ISA FOR ILN; FOR NEA; OASD/PA; USDOC PASS USTR/PA; WHITEHOUSE FOR NSC-WEUROPE, NSC FOR BERGER; USMISSION USNATO FOR USIS; PARIS FOR USIS; UNESCO; OECD; E.0.12958:N/A SUBJECT: LONDON MEDIA REACTION REPORT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 1998 "THE BRITISH AND IRISH GOVERNMENTS HAVE TO SAY PLAINLY: "WE ARE INTERNING EVERYONE WHO MIGHT HAVE ANY CONNECTION WITH THE CAMPAIGN TO MURDER PEOPLE." "I THINK THEY WILL." SMIH SECT: SECTION: 01 OF 07 <^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 07 <^SECT>SECTION: 04 OF 07 <^SECT>SECTION: 05 OF 07 <^SECT>SECTION: 06 OF 07 F:\Cable\Data_Source\Cables\CD032\AUG98\MSGS\M3429467.hml Page 9 of 9 < <^SECT>SECTION: 07 OF 07 SSN: 8428 <^SSN>8428 <^SSN>8428 <^SSN>8428 <^SSN>8428 <^SSN>8428 TOR: 980820070318 M3429467 <^TOR>980820070435 M3429468 <^TOR>980820071005 M3429475 <^TOR>980820070711 M3429470 <^TOR>980820071255 M3429480 <^TOR>980820071021 M3429477 DIST: SIT: NSC