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44162822
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Labor - AFL-CIO: AFL-CIO Polling
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44162822
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Labor - AFL-CIO: AFL-CIO Polling
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Records of the Office of Political Affairs (Clinton Administration)
Craig Hughes' Files
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42-t-5665379-20130306F-024-002-2016
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FOIA Number: 2013-0306-F
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Political Affairs
Series/Staff Member:
Craig Hughes
Subseries:
OA/ID Number:
14933
FolderID:
Folder Title:
Labor - AFL-CIO: AFL-CIO Polling
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
S
28
3
7
2
EX
LABON
POLITICAL DEPARTMENT
AFL
CIO
&
AFL-CIO, 815 16th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
202-637-5101 - 202-637-5107/fax
5102
COMORESS OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION
AFL-Cily.
FAX TRANSMITTAL SHEET
DATE:
8/8/91
TO:
Craig Smith
FROM:
Steve Rosenthal
FAX NO#
202-456-7929
TIME:
11:20A
COMMENTS:
More information to
come early mext week.
NUMBER OF PAGES TO FOLLOW: 5
1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
Washington, D.C. 20009
202-234-5570
202-232-8134 FAX
MEMORANDUM
TO:
AFL-CIO
FROM:
Peter D. Hart Research Associates
DATE:
August 1, 1997
SUBJECT: Fast-track Authorization
A survey recently completed by Hart Research for the AFL-CIO reveals very
substantial public opposition to congressional approval of new fast-track negotiating
authority for trade agreements.
The American public has H somewhat mixed view of trade today. Americans
believe that trade has more of a positive (51%) than negative (32%) overall effect on
the economy; at the same time, they say by 66% to 19% that free trade agreements
have done more to cost jobs in the U.S. than to create jobs (union members have
similar views on both questions). A 15% plurality of adults feel that NAFTA has had
a negative impact on the United States, with 26% perceiving a positive impact (union
members are negative by 57% to 17%). A clear majority voice opposition to further
expanding NAFTA this year.
On the question of giving the president new fast-track negotiating authority,
however, the American people are of one mind. They oppose fast-track authority by
an overwhelming 66% to 28% (and union members by 72% to 23%), with fully 14%
- 1 -
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
strougly opposed (by way of comparison, 18% strongly oppose NAFTA). Even among
people not opposed to NAFTA, fast-track is rejected by a 55% majority (81% of
NAFTA opponents also oppose fast-track).
Americans have two main objections to fast-track authority: 1) it speeds up a
process that should proceed slowly and carefully, so as to protect workers' and
consumers' interests, and 2) it prevents Congress from improving agreements
through amendments, while giving too much power to the President.
Fast-track gives too much priority to making trade deals quickly, when
there is really no hurry. Congress should take its time, and review trade
agreements carefully to make suro they are in the best interests of
American workers and consumers.
(83% agree, 64% strongly)
Fast-track gives the President too much power. Congress should meet its
responsibility to carefully review trade agreements.
(80% agree, 57% strongly)
Significantly, every pro-fast-track argument tested in the survey is rejected by a
majority of Americans, including the notion that other countries will beat us to new
markets in the absence of fast-track.
Opposition to fast-track is very broad-based, including all age groups, all regions
of the country, and cities, suburbs, and rural areas. Even such traditionally free-
trade-oriented groups as college graduates, professionals, and people with annual
incomes over $50,000 vote oppose fast-track. Republicans and independents are
strongly opposed (76% and 70%, respectively), while a smaller majority (54%) of
Democrats reject fast-track. Clearly, labor has an opportunity in this fight to win
over many constituencies that are not traditional allies.
The survey was conducted by telephone between July 18 and 22, 1997, among
representative samples of 806 adult Americans and 607 members of AFL-CIO-
affiliated unions.
- 2 -
Recent NBC/Wall St. Journal Survey Results
on Fast-track and NAFTA
Attached are analyses of key groups for two questions asked in the recent NBC/Wall
Street Journal poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter D. Hart and
Robert M. Teeter from July 26 to 28, 1997. The survey was conducted by telephone
among 1,002 adults nationwide.
The survey asked the following two questions:
(Q.26a) As you may know, about four years ago Congress passed NAFTA, the free
trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. So far, would you say that NAFTA has
made more of a positive impact on the United States or more of a negative impact on
the United States?
12% of those surveyed say that NAFTA has had a negative impact, 32% say
it has had a positive impact.
(Q.26b) As you may know, President Clinton has asked Congress to give him "fast-
track" authority to negotiate more free trade agreements. The "fast-track" authority
would mean that once the negotiations are completed, Congress would take an up-or-
down vote on an agreement as a whole, but could not vote to make any amendments
or changes in an agreement.
61% of those surveyed oppose granting President Clinton fast-track
authority, 32% favor granting fast-track authority.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
Printed on Recycled Paper
Impact of NAFTA
Would you say that NAFTA has made more of a positive impact on the United
States or more of a negative impact on the United States?
Positive
Negative
Impact
Impact
0;
:
All Adults
32
42
Sex
Men
35
44
Women
29
40
Region
Northeast
31
38
Midwest
33
40
South
30
16
West
33
42
Race
Whites
30
43
Blacks
37
41
Income
Under $30,000
31
14
$30,000 to $50,000
29
46
Over $50,000
37
38
Area type
Urban
40
36
Suburbs/towns
30
41
Rural
26
51
Registration
Registered voters
32
41
Party Identification
Democrats
40
39
Independents
29
45
Republicans
27
43
Occupation
Professionals/managers
37
38
White collar workers
28
39
Blue collar workers
28
47
Source: Survey by Hart-Teeter for NBC/Wall Street Journal (July 26-28, 1997).
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc
Printed on Recycled Pape
Position on Fast-track
Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose
having Congress grant the President fast-track authority to negotiate new free
trade agreements?
Total
Total
Strongly
Favor
Oppose
Oppose
(I
All Adults
32
61
32
Sex
Men
34
61
34
Women
31
60
30
Region
Northeast
38
52
22
Midwest
35
59
33
South
27
68
37
West
32
61
33
Race
Whites
31
63
33
Blacks
39
55
24
Income
Under $30,000
33
58
29
$30,000 to $50,000
27
69
35
Over $50,000
37
58
32
Area type
Urban
36
58
30
Suburbs/towns
34
58
30
Rural
21
72
39
Registration
Registered voters
33
60
32
Party Identification
Democrats
44
47
21
Independents
28
66
36
Republicans
22
73
43
Occupation
Professionals/managers
36
58
30
White collar workers
35
61
29
Blue collar workers
32
62
37
Source: Survey by Hart-Teeter for NBC/Wall Street Journal (July 26-28, 1997).
- 3 -
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.