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Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet Clinton Library DOCUMENT NO. SUBJECT/TITLE DATE RESTRICTION AND TYPE 001. speech re: Political (3 pages) 05/21/1996 Personal Misfile COLLECTION: Clinton Presidential Records Speechwriting Lissa Muscatine OA/Box Number: 12074 FOLDER TITLE: HRC - WLF [Women's Leadership Forum], Denver 5/21/96 2017-1164-S rc2786 RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] PI National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] b(l) National security classified information {(b)(1) of the FOIAJ P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office ((a)(2) of the PRA] b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRAJ an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information {(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRAJ b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C. b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information 2201(3). concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA] RR. Document will be reviewed upon request. MAKING COLORADO A BETTER PLACE TO LIVE AND WORK America Is Moving In the Right Direction Under President Clinton Stronger Economy. The combined rate of unemployment and inflation is at its lowest level since 1968. 8.5 Million New Jobs. The economy has created more than 8.5 million new jobs under President Clinton. Private sector job growth rate nearly 8 times greater than during previous Administration. Renewed Growth in Key Industries. After a decade of enormous job losses in construction, manufacturing, and autos, these industries have made a remarkable recovery -- nearly one million new jobs combined under President Clinton. Deficit Cut in Half. The President's economic plan will cut the deficit for four years in a row for the first time since Harry Truman was President -- the largest reduction in history. Keeping Guns Away from Criminals. More than 60,000 fugitives and felons blocked from buying handguns because President Clinton fought to pass the Brady Bill. Safer Communities. The crime rate is down, violent crime fell 4 percent in 1995 -- the largest decline in more than a decade, and the number of murders decreased 8 percent -- one of the largest drops in three decades. Stronger Families. Teen pregnancy is falling, the poverty rate is decreasing, and the number of people on welfare is declining. Colorado Is Moving In The Right Direction Under President Clinton Unemployment Rate in Colorado Has Dropped from 6.2% to 3.8%. 263,600 New Jobs Added in 38 Months -- More Than During the Entire Previous 4 Years. 5,900 New Manufacturing Jobs Added in Colorado -- After 3,100 Lost During the Previous 4 Years. Crime Is Down. In Denver, the number of crimes reported fell by more than 9% in the first half of 1995, and the reported number of robberies dropped by 31%. $15,000 of Reduced Federal Debt for Every Family of Four in Colorado. The President's economic plan is reducing the federal debt for each family of four by about $15,000. 171,838 Working Families Receive a Tax Cut. The President's expanded Earned Income Tax Credit is helping 171,838 working families make ends meet. 488 New Police Officers in Colorado. The President's Crime Bill puts 488 new police officers on the street, strengthens drug courts helping keep adult and juvenile offenders from cycling through the legal system, and helps protect women and children from domestic violence and sexual offenders. 564,000 Workers Protected by Family and Medical Leave. The Family and Medical Leave Act allows workers to take up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave for the birth of a child or to care for a sick family member. May 17, 1996 ECONOMIC PROGRESS IN COLORADO UNDER PRESIDENT CLINTON President Clinton's strategy to strengthen the economy is based on reducing the federal budget deficit, lowering trade barriers, and empowering workers, families, businesses and communities to succeed. Here are some of the results for the nation and Colorado after the first 39 months of the Clinton Administration: Improved Economic and Fiscal Conditions in the United States: Under the Clinton Economic Plan, the deficit will be lowered by more than $1 trillion over 7 years -- the deficit will be cut for four years in a row for the first time since Harry Truman was President. 8.5 million new jobs created. Combined rate of unemployment and inflation at lowest level in 27 years. Federal government workforce will drop by 272,900 creating lowest workforce since the Kennedy Administration. Improved Economic Conditions in Colorado: The unemployment rate has dropped from 6.2% to 3.8%. Almost twice as many new jobs per year - 83,242 vs. 43,600 average during the previous 4 years. More than twice as many new private sector jobs per year 79,168 vs. 36,800 average during the previous 4 years. 5,900 new manufacturing jobs added in 38 months - after 3,100 lost during the previous 4 years. Consumer Confidence has increased 70%. Home building has increased 20% per year. What President Clinton's Accomplishments Have Achieved for the People of Colorado: $15,000 OF REDUCED FEDERAL DEBT FOR EVERY FAMILY OF FOUR IN COLORADO: The national debt will be more than $1 trillion lower over 7 years than was projected before the passage of the President's economic plan. That's about $15,000 of reduced federal debt for each family of four in Colorado. 10 TIMES MORE COLORADO FAMILIES RECEIVE A TAX CUT THAN A TAX INCREASE: As a result of the expanded Earned Income Tax Credit, 171,838 working families in Colorado will receive a tax cut. This compares to an increase in the income tax rate for only the 17,837 wealthiest taxpayers in Colorado. TAX CUT FOR 23,578 SMALL BUSINESSES IN COLORADO: The President helped entrepreneurs, proprietors, and other small businessmen and women by expanding the annual expensing allowance from $10,000 to $17,500. About 23,578 small businesses in Colorado are likely to benefit from the expansion of the expensing allowance this year alone and many more will benefit over the coming years. 564,000 COLORADO WORKERS PROTECTED BY FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT: The Family and Medical Leave Act allows workers to take up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave for the birth of a child, to care for a sick family member, or if they become too sick to work. This law covers about 564,008 workers in Colorado, and protects the jobs of 33,882 workers in Colorado who are likely to use unpaid leave this year alone. 314,900 STUDENTS AND FORMER STUDENTS IN COLORADO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM STUDENT LOAN REFORMS: Approximately 314,900 Colorado borrowers -- 220,400 current borrowers and 94,500 new borrowers in the next few years can take advantage of the new direct student loan program by participating directly in the program or by consolidating guaranteed loans into direct loans. Some will benefit from lower interest rates, and all will benefit from more repayment options, including income contingent repayment. May 17, 1996 Withdrawal/Redaction Marker Clinton Library DOCUMENT NO. SUBJECT/TITLE DATE RESTRICTION AND TYPE 001. speech re: Political (3 pages) 05/21/1996 Personal Misfile COLLECTION: Clinton Presidential Records Speechwriting Lissa Muscatine OA/Box Number: 12074 FOLDER TITLE: HRC - WLF [Women's Leadership Forum], Denver 5/21/96 2017-1164-S rc2786 RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C. b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information 2201(3). concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA] RR. Document will be reviewed upon request. May 20, 1996 MEMORANDUM FOR THE FIRST LADY FROM: DOUG SOSNIK AND RAY MARTINEZ SUBJECT: COLORADO POLITICS 1992 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS COLORADO DENVER Clinton 629,681 40% Clinton 135,016 55% Bush 562,850 36% Bush 63,283 26% Perot 366,010 23% Perot 43,245 18% Electoral Votes: 8 COLORADO AT A GLANCE 1994 estimated population in Colorado is 3,656,000, which is up 11% from 1990: this makes Colorado the 26th largest state in the country. Colorado is still 18% rural; 10% of state residents are 65 years of age and over. 88% of Colorado citizens are white, 12.9% Hispanic, 4% Black, and 2% Asian- American. 33% of registered voters in 1994 identified themselves as Democrats, 34% self- identified as Republican and 33% identified themselves as independent or affiliated with minor parties. Current political line-up: Governor Roy Romer (D), Lieutenant Governor Gail Schoettler (D), Secretary of State Vicki Buckley (R), Attorney General Gale Norton (R), and Treasurer Bill Owens (R). POLITICAL LANDSCAPE The Rocky Mountains split Colorado into two distinct political regions: the Front Range and the Western Slope. The Democratic enclaves of the Front Range (Denver, Boulder and Pueblo) differentiate Colorado from other staunchly GOP western states. While only 20% of the state's population reside in the mountainous area called the Western Slope, this vast expanse of land represents the core opposition to the administration's western land use reform proposals and other administration initiatives. While Democratic support in the southern part of the state has declined in recent years, the large Hispanic population in this region, particularly in the Pueblo area, gives Democrats a distinct advantage. President Clinton's September 1995 appearance in Pueblo, where over 10,000 people greeted him at Pueblo Community College, was extremely well-received and helped to rejuvenate a somewhat lackluster local Democratic Party apparatus. In the 1994 mid-term elections, Colorado largely avoided the GOP tidal wave that engulfed other states. Governor Roy Romer's (D) easy win along with Rep. David Skaggs (D) re- election victory with a surprisingly strong 57% of the vote helped Colorado Democrats emerge from the 1994 elections relatively unscathed. Romer cruised to a third term against the bumbling candidacy of millionaire businessman Bruce Benson (R). Considered vulnerable at one time, Romer won by sixteen percentage points (57% - 39%) after his opponent self-destructed amid a variety of unusual scandals. On the down side in 1994, despite Romer's resounding victory, no other statewide Democrat won (besides his Lt. Gov. running mate Gail Schoettler) and the GOP tightened their grip on the state legislature. 1996 PRESIDENTIAL A Rocky Mountain News poll shows the President in a statistical dead heat with GOP Presidential candidate Bob Dole in Colorado. The poll was released March 3 and was conducted among 660 likely voters statewide. The poll found: GENERAL ELECTION: Clinton 43% Dole 45% In related news, former Governor Dick Lamm (D) adamantly denied a report in the May 6 issue of Newsweek magazine that he might run as a Presidential candidate for Ross Perot's Reform Party. Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter wrote that Perot recently sent a private message to Lamm urging him to run and that Lamm responded, "sounds game if the circumstances are right." Lamm denies that Perot sent him this message, although he does confirm that Reform Party members have asked him to enter the race. While denying that he plans to enter the race, Lamm has agreed however, to give the keynote address at the Reform Party convention in California on June 1. Lamm ran unsuccessfully for the Colorado Democratic Senate nomination in 1992 (losing to then Rep. Ben Nighthorse- Campbell.) 2 1996 SENATE RACE Incumbent Senator Hank Brown (R) announced last year that he would not seek a second term, thus improving the Democrats' chances of regaining this seat. However, many Colorado Democrats remain concerned that Colorado Democrats may not have a first-tier candidate necessary to win the race. The latest Cook Political Report, released May 3rd, shows this senatorial seat in the "Lean Republican" category, one step away from being considered a "toss up" race. The primary will be held August 13th. The Democratic field is set with five candidates that include Denver attorney Tom Strickland, Denver City Councilmember Ramona Martinez, Businessman Phil Perington, state Senator Paul Weissmann and former law school dean Gene Nichol. Most of the candidates are from the Denver area and none have ever run for statewide office before, therefore allowing for little name recognition outside of Denver. Strickland is currently the frontrunner in the polls and is considered formidable, largely because of his fundraising prowess, thanks to his politically well-connected law firm. This same law firm, however, could also be his biggest liability. Although Strickland has low name identification and has never run for public office, he does have a record of public service, strong ties to Governor Romer and other state Democrats, and a good reputation in the environmental community. He also has a strong team of campaign operatives guiding his effort. The day after the state's caucuses in early April, Governor Romer endorsed Strickland for the nomination. Romer's endorsement of Strickland came as no surprise to the Colorado political community -- Romer's son was already on-board the Strickland campaign as the campaign treasurer. Denver Mayor Wellington Webb (D) and his wife, former state legislator Wilma Webb, have also endorsed Strickland in the primary. Strickland has also received key endorsements from various organizations, most notably, Clean Water Action, a citizen's environment group. The state director of Clean Water Action praised Strickland for "his passion for Colorado's environment." Strickland has also been endorsed by the Colorado Education Association (CEA). Despite Strickland's impressive endorsements, his campaign remains devoid of enthusiasm or clear momentum. Strickland's toughest competitor was thought to be Denver city councilwoman Ramona Martinez. Martinez, a foe of Mayor Wellington Webb, has been endorsed by seven international labor unions, including AFSCME and the United Farm Workers. Unfortunately for Martinez, these endorsement's have not translated into much support or enthusiasm among Colorado voters. Meanwhile, former law school dean Gene Nichol appears to be the candidate with the growing momentum, due in large part to his "populist" campaign rhetoric -- he is refusing to accept PAC contributions -- and to the lackluster field of candidates. 3 In order to qualify for the August 13th primary ballot, candidates have two options: receive a minimum amount of delegates (30%) to the June 8th state convention, or round up the required amount of signatures to petition onto the ballot. Several months ago, all the Democratic senate candidates pledged to use the convention route to decide their campaign fate, however, Ramona Martinez recently broke that pledge, and announced that she will attempt to qualify for primary ballot via the petition route. Both Strickland and Nichol have announced that they each have the required amount of delegates to qualify for the August 13th primary ballot. Their conclusion is based on results of 20 county delegate assemblies conducted in April which gave Strickland 1,314 delegates or 45.29%, and Nichol 1.147 or 39.3%. Paul Weissmann, a third candidate seeking delegates, did not capture the minimum number needed to get placed on the ballot. Meanwhile, Martinez has garnered 4,500 of the necessary 16,000 petition signatures to make the ballot. The latest campaign finance reports show Strickland with approximately $222,000, of which 90% came from individual contributors. Meanwhile, Gene Nichol has raised $71,571 and Martinez $50,414, after having loaned her campaign $47,500 in the first quarter of this year. The field for the GOP senate nomination is led by Attorney General Gale Norton (R), the top statewide vote-getter in 1994 and a moderate, pro-choice Republican. Norton, who has announced her candidacy, argued the appeal on behalf of the state's anti-gay initiative in front of the U.S. Supreme Court this past fall. The case provided her with a high profile forum on an issue that arouses Republican primary voters. Her arch-conservative primary opponent, Rep. Wayne Allard (R), will undoubtedly attack Norton as "too liberal" for Colorado's conservative Republicans. Rep. John Kasich (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Budget committee, appeared at several GOP fundraisers on behalf of Allard last month. Allard appears to lead Norton in fundraising, as his campaign has a war chest nearly seven times larger than Norton's. Allard has raised a total of $642,349 since entering the race, while Norton has raised $387,650. The latest FEC reports show that Norton has outspent Allard, but only has $62,359 on hand, while Allard has $419,842 on hand. A KMGH-TV poll, conducted February 26 - 28 by Mason-Dixon/PAR, surveyed 825 registered voters statewide and shows Senate candidates Strickland (D) and Attorney General Gale Norton (R) holding slim leads over their opponents: Democratic Primary GOP Primary Strickland 27% Norton 31% Martinez 17% Allard 30% Nichol 6% Weissmann 3% 4 GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS: Allard 36% Allard 41% Strickland 32% Martinez 22% Norton 38% Norton 44% Strickland 31% Martinez 21% A March Denver Post poll also posed a question regarding a hypothetical 1998 Senate race between retiring Congresswoman Pat Schroeder (D-1st), who is rumored to be interested in running for the Senate, and incumbent GOP Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. The poll showed that Schroeder would receive 41% of the vote against Nighthorse Campbell's 50%. CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION / 1996 HOUSE RACES Senator Hank Brown (R) Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) Rep. Patricia Schroeder (D) Rep. David Skaggs (D) Rep. Scott McInnis (R) Rep. Wayne Allard (R) Rep. Joel Hefley (R) Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) Colorado Democrats suffered an embarrassing loss with the defection last year of Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R). Elected in 1992 as a Democrat, Campbell announced that he was switching parties the day after the balanced budget amendment failed. Although he voted with the President 81% of the time, he said that he no longer felt comfortable with the left wing of the Democratic party. The maverick Senator's switch was fueled largely by local disputes among Colorado Democrats. Campbell was given a seat on the Agriculture Committee after his party switch. His term expires in 1998 and speculation persists that he will run for governor, rather than seek re-election to the Senate. With the surprise retirement announcement of Rep. Patricia Schroeder (D), Democrats statewide and nationally have lost a great figure in the party. Schroeder's district encompasses the metro Denver area and surrounding suburbs. Democrats feel confident they will be able to retain this seat, even though Republican vote totals against Schroeder have increased in the past couple of election cycles. Announced Democrats include former Denver City Councilman Tim Sandos (who is Hispanic), former Romer staffer Les Franklin, and State Rep. Diana DeGette. Sandos and DeGette are expected to battle for the nomination. Announced Republicans include former Hank Brown aide Joe Rodgers (who is African-American) and activist Dan Stewart. House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R) endorsed Rodgers and appeared at a fundraiser on behalf of Rodgers in mid-March. Early results from preference polls taken during the April 2 precinct caucuses show DeGette with a nearly 2 to 1 lead over Sandos in the race for the Democratic nomination. Statewide and congressional candidates need at least 30% of the delegates to get on the August primary ballot. 5 Meanwhile, Rep. David Skaggs (D-2nd), whose district encompasses Boulder and the northern Denver suburbs, continuously lands on the GOP "hit list" but has won re-election easily each cycle since he first won the seat in 1986. Given his 57% victory in the midst of the 1994 GOP "tidal wave," Skaggs appears to be in a strong position for re-election in 1996. Skaggs is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Announced Republicans include '94 nominee Pat Miller, and attorney Shannon Robinson. There appears to be little opportunity for picking up any of the state's four Republican-held House seats. Rep. Joel Hefley (R-5th) will be challenged by former state Senator Bill Hughes (R) in the GOP primary, largely because of Hefley's opposition to term limits, but he appears to be a strong bet to win the primary and the general election. House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) appeared at a $150-a-plate fundraising dinner for Hefley in mid-April. Reps. Dan Schaefer (R-6th) and Scott McInnis (R-3rd) are considered to be in safe congressional seats. Rep. Wayne Allard's (R-4th) seat will be open because he is running for the Senate, although his seat is likely to remain in Republican hands. STATE LEGISLATURE/EXECUTIVE BRANCH Colorado Republicans hold all statewide offices excepted for the Governor and Lieutenant Governor's offices, and they hold sizable majorities in the state House (41 - 24) and state Senate (19 - 6). The state legislature ended their 1996 session less than two weeks ago. Governor Romer praised the legislature for increasing money available for schools and highways. Highlights of the legislative session include increasing public school funding by 3%, addressing development growth in Colorado, repeal of same-sex marriage legislation by Gov. Romer and campaign finance reform. ISSUES State Democratic Party. Mike Beatty, a former Romer staffer and one of the original 10 Clinton finance co-chairs in 1992, was elected state party chair last year. Beatty has helped to revitalize the party both financially and message-wise with strong support from Governor Romer. Amendment 2. This Colorado initiative which repealed municipal gay rights laws passed by a slim margin in 1992 and inspired outrage and boycotts from national liberal groups. The State Supreme Court ruled in October of 1994 that the amendment is unconstitutional and the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the state's appeal last fall. Just today, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that if would affirm the Colorado Supreme Court's decision, thereby rendering Amendment 2 null and void. Despite pressure from gay rights groups, Attorney General Reno decided not to file an amicus brief in the case. Though conservative and gay rights groups have already begun collecting signatures for competing initiatives in 1996, the Supreme Court's decision will obviously have a major impact on both sides' political strategy. 6 Catholics. Archbishop J. Francis Stafford of Denver recently blasted Governor Romer's decision to veto a bill that would have banned same-sex marriages in Colorado. In his pastoral reflection entitled, "April is the Cruelest Month, " Stafford criticized Romer's veto of the same-sex marriages bill, President Clinton's veto of a partial-birth abortion ban and the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals' invalidation of a law against assisted suicide. Of the President's veto, Stafford wrote, "One is forced to wonder how President Clinton, who describes himself as a believing Christian, would respond to some key moral questions about late term abortion..." The Archdiocese of Denver represents 340,000 Catholics in Colorado. Gambling. A new survey has indicated that Coloradans are twice as likely to gamble at casinos as the average American. Last year, the Denver area, which has 1.5 million adults over 21 who are able to gamble legally, produced 3 million visitors to casinos. In contrast, the average American of legal gambling age visited a casinos less then once in 1995, the survey reported. Denver ranked as the 12th-largest feeder market for casinos, ahead of San Francisco, Houston, Atlanta, and Miami. New York City ranked first, producing 11 million visitors to casinos. Overall, U.S. Casinos drew 154 million visitors last year, up from 125 million in 1994. The survey was commissioned by Harrah's Entertainment Inc., based in Tennessee, which operates casinos in Black Hawk and Central City, Colorado. Same-Sex Marriages. Governor Romer last month vetoed a controversial bill banning same- sex marriages, insisting, however, that these unions may deserve statutory recognition. Romer in his statement to the press said "...we cannot prohibit or ban these relationships, and we shouldn't use our laws to attempt to do so". Supporters of the bill are considering bringing the issue to the voters in November. Similar legislative bans on same-sex marriages has been introduced in at least 25 states; it has been killed in nine states and is pending in 16. In the west, Utah reaffirmed its ban on same-sex marriages last year and legislation is pending in Hawaii, Oregon, and Montana. Boulder became the first city in Colorado where same-sex couples can publicly document their commitment to each other. The Boulder City Council earlier this month unanimously approved a domestic partnership registry for gay, lesbian, and heterosexual couples. While the registry carries no legal weight, supporters say it provides valuable community affirmation of same-sex partnerships and will make it easier for employers to provide insurance coverage to unmarried partners. Boulder, Denver, and Aspen in the past have approved laws barring discrimination based on sexual orientation. 7