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FOIA Number: 2017-0401-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff. Collection/Record Group: Clinton Presidential Records Subgroup/Office of Origin: Special Envoy for the Americas Series/Staff Member: General Files Subseries: OA/ID Number: 11851 FolderID: Folder Title: Fast Track - Current (9/97) [3] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: S 66 3 9 3 05/16/97 FRI 47 FAX 202 736 7618 SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS 002 CRP has made growing wheat in America uncompedive. In 10 of the last 11 years, the United States has had to import wheat, mainly from Canada, riling U.S. wheat pro- Shifting land ducers and creating ill-tempered trade disputes with our northern neighbor. BY KENDELL W. KEITH The undersupplies dra The economic situation in rural America has changed The future competitiveness escalated production dramatically since the mid-1980s. Except for wheat, U.S. of U.S. agriculture may well be livestock and poultry, farmers are the most competitive grain producers in the decided in a matter of days. growth in demand, world and have become the country's single biggest ex- At stake is the 10-year fate of U.S. exports and curte more than 25 million acres of duction of corn-based porters. Stocks are depleted and prices sturdy. There is U.S. farmland, about 9% of our for industrial uses, suc no reason landowners should be receiving government total cultivated acreage for field anol. handouts just for the asking. crops like wheat, com and soy- If a similar mistake CRP is the only unfinished business from last year's beans. with the Conservation overhaul of the 1930s farm subsidies program. Mr. Glick- One day next week, Secretary Program, it will las¹ man deserves credit for redirecting the program. He of Agriculture Dan Glickman years. And the dama will render his decision con- nomic side effects will should take one step further and begin returning arable cerning the number of acres to beyond that. land into production. be idled in the Conservation If productive farml: Reserve Program. The outcome lowed to be re-enroll- will largely determine whether program, the most d Retreating on trade U.S. agriculture will be posi- impact will be on t tioned to capture the burgeon- and meat sectors. ing growth in world markets. Already, wheat is resident Clinton, who has exhorted Americans to peting very effectivel P Last year, the USDA pledged compete and not retreat" on free trade, seems head- to create a "new" reserve pro- other crops for the ed toward a historic retreat of his own. White House gram, one focused on enrolling base because of yield spokesman Mike McCurry said this week that final passage truly environmentally sensitive ease problems. of "fast track" legislation to give the president trade negoti- land. Gone, it said, were the ating authority may have to wait until next year. days of using the program to idle productive farmland. If productive farm Delaying until 1998 would be a huge mistake. In an But in January, it issued a fi- allowed to be re-en election year, with House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt nal rule that qualified nearly trying to retake the House and also kick off his 2000 two-thirds of U.S. cropland. the program, the presidential campaign, passing such a controversial bill So what happened when Ag- devastating impact ? will be next to impossible. riculture conducted the first the wheat and mea. Mr. Clinton is being prodded into action by Republi- sign-up under its "new" Con- cans who know time is running out for the fast track leg- servation Reserve Program? Of the 25.6 million acres offered, islation. His own advisers tell him to wait until the fall in 18.1 million were already en- order to get budget legislation and fight over trade rela- Restoring to produ rolled in the "old" program. million wheat acres tions with China off the agenda. That would mean court- The USDA's own data show enrolled in the CO ing defeat. As his disastrous efforts to pass new authority that more than 50% of acreage program would be in 1994 and 1995 showed, such waiting only allows oppo- enrolled in the "old" program step, reversing the nents of fast track to organize and stall. is productive farmland that can trend of declining L President Clinton's dithering over fast track exemplifies be cropped using proper con- exports, which is ca servation practices. About 25% his weakness as president. Unwilling to challenge Demo- shortage of wheat. of land in the "old" conserva- The U.S. wheat crats and unsure of his own priorities, he twists in the tion program is of such good would also gain vali wind and lets historic opportunities pass. In this case, quality that it would not even to invest in researc huge gains for U.S. exporters and workers are being sacri- require a conservation-compli- hance wheat output ficed. Europe now trades more with Latin America than ance plan to be farmed. ease resistance. does the United States, and Japan is gaining ground fast. Now, the question is wheth- Conversely, if th er the USDA will have the po- States continues to Cynics in the White House say Republicans are trying litical fortitude to follow amounts of product to lure Mr. Clinton into a debilitating trade fight within through on its pledge to reform land, U.S. imports of his own party. Even if that is so, he should not retreat. the program by saying no to continue to increase. Trade is one of the few areas where Bill Clinton could bids that represent productive ports currently a) make his mark in history. Another free-trader who made farmland. about 6% of domesti that mark, John F. Kennedy, is said to be a model for Mr. The enormity of this pending Hopefully, we W( Clinton. In 1962, JFK exhorted a crowd of 100,000 in New decision dwarfs the ill-fated the situation we nov Orleans to embrace trade and resist the temptation to USDA decision in 1995 that oats, in which 40% ( idled 7.5% of U.S. corn acreage. use is supplied with "pull back from the world." Thirty-five years later, his That decision, coupled with ad- Further, if meat warning should be heeded by Bill Clinton: The United verse weather, caused acute exports are to con States must either trade, or fade." shortages of U.S. feed grains. current double-dig /16/97 FRI 18:46 FAX 202 736 7618 SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS 001 THEJOURNALO COMMERCE WORLD TRADE Continued from Page 1A Slow going ILO White House again delays In a biting aside, he Americans who want the action on fast-track authority to link free trade and rights "are still dreaming.' Those dreams, howeve at the heart of a disagre Democrats on the House control of the House. President eyeing that has split the Clinto Ways and Means Committee at- But there are signs that ministration down the r September push tacked the proposal immediate- some progress on building sup- as it seeks to win congres ly, and administration officials port for "fast track" authority support for new trade ne{ condemned the move as parti- could continue in the interim. ing authority to expan BY JOHN MAGGS san and unproductive. For one, Mr. McCurry's com- North American Free OURNAL OF COMMERCE STAFF Meanwhile, Treasury Secre- ments on postponing fast track Agreement to Chile. tary Robert Rubin said on publicly linked the fight for WASHINGTON The Clinton Thursday that President Clinton trade authority to next March's Pressure on administrat administration has again put off faced an uphill battle to win meeting of Western hemisphere action on securing new trade ne- new trade negotiating authority leaders in Chile. Largely due to pressure gotiating authority from Congress, from Congress and the odds While a similar link had the AFL-CIO and Rep. Ge₁ but there are hints of progress were running against him. been made in the past between the administration has be despite this latest setback Mr. Rubin told an invest- fast track and Mr. Clinton's luctant to introduce that President Clinton is suppos- ment group that although the tour of Latin America this tion in Congress. Tha edly considering two options administration was trying to spring, the McCurry comments drawn criticism from R from his Cabinet: Act now on work with lawmakers to win provide a clear target. cans, who threatened this the trade bill or let it slide until support for so-called fast track Second, the Senate is finally to introduce their own bi September. legislation, it "is going to be showing signs of leadership on On the global front, th But White House spokesman very difficult and the odds the issue after letting the House demands to include a Mike McCurry said Wednesday clearly are not in our favor." drive the process. rights clause in the WI that the president would not The three-month delay in Jolted to life by Senate Com- December caused dee₁ act until after Congress' August seeking fast track rights further merce Committee Chairman with developing countr recess. He said a struggle on lengthens the odds that Presi- John McCain, R-Ariz., who Asia and Africa, who view trade authority could "overload dent Clinton will obtain authori- would like to take over respon- U.S. strategy as an a the circuits" when the presi- ty to cut tariffs and expand free sibility for trade matters, Fi- power play and a thin dent is also pushing Congress trade to Latin America. nance Committee Chairman Bill guised form of protectio: to finalize the budget deal and Most Democrats oppose this Roth, R-Del., has finally Over the next yea renew normal trade treatment idea, and a divisive fight lies planned a hearing on new members states and its for China. ahead on the role of labor and trade authority in early June. ing body will seek to b This statement was prompt- environmental provisions in fu- Even if Sen. Roth does no international consensus ed by House Republicans, who ture trade accords. It is widely more than this, Sen. McCain al- force seven core ILO tried to push the White House believed that final passage of ready has announced plans to standards through a sys to act this week by putting for- the bill will be even harder in work with Sen. Bob Graham, monitoring, product lab ward their own proposal for 1998, when Democrats and Re- D-Fla., to put forward a trade- political pressure rathe trade authority. publicans will be fighting over authority bill. trade sanctions. In his interview, Mr. H described the ILO's appr OPTIONAL FORM 99 (7-90) a delicate compromise. FAX TRANSMITTAL # of pages 2 moral sanctions have of waiting, uscful for enforcing labo To mack From Eren ards because compani countries "operating in on Iraq trade Dept./Agency Phone context need more than Fax # fyr Fax # have a good image." the At the conference, Se Mr. Erkovan said. "But rather NSN 7540-01-317-7368 5099-101 GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION iel Patrick Moynihan, than wasting time and losing :ee- former chairman of the more money, I decided to find trade area, anu secondly, recog- Finance Committee, an alternate route." NEW DELHI Leaders of a nition of the need to encourage that the ILO's role in seven-nation South Asian political consultation among On the black market, Mr. Er- members. ing the labor issue CI kovan and other Turkish trad- group, pledging to hasten the solve "the crisis in U.S. ers in the same position are creation of a free-trade area, When Saarc was formed in tional trade policy" ca paying Jordanian merchants for are asking developed countries 1985, the objective was to con- the rift over labor right licenses they received from the to cut tariff and non-tariff bar- centrate on economic coopera- By introducing "labc United Nations months ago. riers and stop restrictive trade tion. ards to trade agreeme practices. way acceptable did allow 05/16/97 FRI 08:25 FAX 202 736 7618 SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS 4001 1 justification for the possible advertises northern Chinese prostitutes Democrats urge two well-regarded network S amans. nonstrations and the registra- "recommended by Fat Dragon" (false ad- governors - Colorado's Romer and Geor- react to a slew of high-leve oups. (Article on Page A14) vertising, the columnist says). gia's Miller - to challenge GOP Senate departures at the network. An incumbents. harnessing the talent and er Success has made him brash enough to r prosecutors will seek the two organizations, Disney ar tackle political themes in a city that is, for against Theodore Kaczynski, TOE DIPPING? Former Clinton political cials are still haggling over the moment anyway, obsessed with poli- rials in California and New adviser Dick Morris may be turning his question of who the network tics. He regularly lambastes the Chinese suspected of killing three and Communist Party and ridicules Hong Kong sights to presidential candidates abroad. He should be: the hip, young , ith mail bombs. Attorney Gen- talks with Venezuelan presidential candi- have been corralled by NBC politicians for cozying up to Beijing. Under leared the move, saying his the recent headline, "Sex Industry More date Lewis Perez about signing on to his ABC's more traditional, main ed premeditation in two cases. Prosperous Post-1997," Fat Dragon campaign. But a contract seems unlikely at ily audience. the moment. "So far, I think this synerg taunted the overlords who will soon take huttle was launched on a mis- over his beloved anything-goes district. says William Ryan, owner 0 r a new oxygen generator and a "You may try to clean it up, but I will have GEPHARDT MULLS a competing tax- ates in Miami and San Antoni astronaut to the Russian Mir fun anyway." he wrote. cut bill for the balanced-budget plan, focus- In other parts of its empire 1. It is to dock late tonight for a ing "on the people who need it." The House seemingly made synergy wor In another column, he suggested that 1. The two cosmonauts and one Democratic leader would target tax breaks ter created in an animated m I the 11-year-old Mir have relied Hong Kong police will be for sale after to middle-income Americans and forgo a Aladdin can generate hundred Britain hands back the colony on June 30 oxygen system since March. broad-based capital-gains cut. But Demo- of dollars as it spins through because, he says. China's police are easily crats on the tax-writing Ways and Means consumer products and them bribed. "One country, two systems. who Archbishop Tutu said he found it panel are leery. such synergy is really just the believes that?" he asked, referring to eve former South African Presi- of one idea in several channel erk's testimony that he was Deng Xiaoping's famous formula for pre- HELP WANTED: White House econo- tion. What Disney has passe murder and torture by his serving Hong Kong's way of life after mist Alicia Munnell quits, opening a spot on ergy at ABC is more like cros its return to Chinese rule. egime's security forces. Tutu, in the three-member Council of Economic Ad- it has yet to come up with ar al statement, said de Klerk's 'It's Quite an Achievement' visers. Munnell, who did a stint at the new ideas or programming in made his apology meaningless. The irreverent ton Clinton's work OPTIONAL FORM 99 (7-90) * Dragon a celebrity. A y's promotional atte tice Department is weighing an columns. called the Fat FAX TRANSMITTAL # of pages en forced and gimn ruling by a U.S. judge in Florida is in its second printil To Mack Gree yers from Disney's M From d deportation of 14,000 Nicara- weekly magazine based Hockey League tea er the new immigration law. The 70,000 copies each issi S "Boy Meets World Dept./Agency Phone the Nicaraguans, many of whom achievement in my life, idea was to plug the 1 the U.S.-backed contra war of the phone. He says he is nei Fax # friend with two product NSN 7540 fyi -7368 Fax # WSJ 5/16 es a ratings boost. be sent home without hearings. players aren't well- want to make Fat Drago 5099-101 GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION ne Gretzky who can ( of an African food crop increased his smuggling activities by Meets World," a ub-Saharan nations following the also helped produce a pornographic mavie as hardly a publicity on of a South American insect that that will be available on video compact CLINTON PONDERS how fast to move for the Anaheim, Calif., team ests that damage cassava plants, disk soon. on 'fast-track' trade legislation. what benefit Disney or ABC said. Cassava is a staple for many For such a busy man, Fat Dragon is Trade Representative Barshefsky and Disney's idea of setting a f id's poor. (Article on Page A14) surprisingly invisible. "Many people/want Staff Chief Bowles send Clinton a decision night TV movie in the Tow to find me out," he says in moding, memo on Wednesday. The options: send a thrill ride at Walt Disney W S. will apologize today for the halting English during a three-hour ate- bill in June or September for fast-track, Still, there is some evide nt's Tuskegee syphilis study, in night phone conversation. The police, who which lets the president expand Nafta and ney's other operations bene black men from Alabama were left read him religiously, say they wouldlove negotiate future trade deals. Barshefsky, association with ABC. Thou: from 1932 to 1972 to see how the to catch him and put him away. and Treasury's Rubin and Summers push dpera fans flocked to Disney rogressed. Four survivors, ages 91 So far, it seems no one but his editors for June in order to move ahead quickly on in Orlando, Fla., last fall to due at a White House ceremony. Please Turn to Page A9, Column global initiatives. such ABC shows as "All My But Clinton adviser Gene Sperling frets One Life to Live." And Dis that moving on fast track now will make It ESPN-themed restaurant AY'S CONTENTS harder to win renewal of favored-nation that has become a big draw TO BUSINESSES APPEARS ON PAGE B2 trade status for China. Gore also resists resort property. pushing fast track; the trade policy could BAD PRESCRIPTION: POLITICS & POLICY: Effect of weifare make him vulnerable to attacks from Nafta Scrambling for New Slat UR Seniors on Medicare overhaul on largest states, A20. foe Gephardt, a potential presidential rival But for ABC, all the cros the world can't help if the can be left with huge in 2000. NEY INTERNATIONAL: U.S. decides not to "Clinton is being held hostage to isn't good, something the ne bills when certain press Mexico on radar system, A14. Gore," one official fumes. "I thought the cally trying to fix. ABC TERS drugs aren't covered second term was when you were sup- President Jamie Tarses 1 REVIEW & OUTLOOK: U.S. deals with by an HMO's drug Moscow deserve scrutiny, A18. posed to govern. unveil her fall schedule, un REPORT plan. Page C1. scrutiny and persistent run OPINION: How to keep the regulatory MINOR MEMOS: The Gore years? Sen. is already in jeopardy at ON THE STREET: Study shows branch in check, A18. McCain says Clintonites consider spending year on the job. Favoring 1 Drs make wrong moves, C2. LEISURE & ARTS: Joe Morgenstern increases after the year 2000 as the "let-Al- she will replace aging favor do-it budget. Not boring: Newly en- anne" and "Coach" W NG: Customers resist the on 'Night Falls on Manhattan,' A16. gaged Gore daughter, Karenna, wears such unnamed slate of newcom ; of staffed branches, B1. a big engagement ring that some friends ABC executives will CO 20518> who had lunch with her simply say they ing their fall schedule OVE OME FRONT: Sellers of show lunched with "the Rock. Ex-Texas Rep. Shows currently expected ; do well, and good, B8. Charles Wilson, now a Washington lobbyist, include "Cracker," a dete S: The Daily Racing Form calls himself "a FIP former important per- ported from Britain; "The 78908 son." version of the Robert Alti or a new owner (again). B7. 0. 63140 4 RONALD G. SHAFER Please Turn to Page A 05/15/97 THU 11:53 FAX 202 736 7618 SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS 001 OnStore-BrandSales Qtr. to May 3 1997 1996 %Ch For periods shown. In parenthesis, operatt the first one to five letters before the Sales 3,409,091,000 3,300,665,000 +3.3 Result: By Bloomberg News comma are the company's stock tick- forma I Net Inc. 24,059,000 b37,946,000 er symbol. N after the comms Indi- tems W Federated Department Stores Inc. Sh. earn .12 (.18) cates stock Is listed on the Hew York Stock Exchange, A the American merger reported robust first-quarter earn- Sh. out. 208,235,000 206,710,000 Stock Exchange, NNM Nasdaq Na- Corpor Interna Ings yesterday, helped by higher b-Net loss tional Market System. NSC Nasdaq Small Capitalization and ECM Revenue sales of store-brand clothing and low- (Loss) Emerging Company Marketplace. Federated Department Stores said that its Great er expenses. year-ago net operating income was $9.3 mil- American Israell Paper Mills 1st qtr " The company, which operates lion, or 4 cents a share, excluding inventory Ltd.(AIP,A) Revenue Macy's, Bloomingdale's and other valuation adjustments and business integration 1st qtr to Mar 31 1997 1996 Net Inc 30-year Sales 87,800,000 90,000,000 Share ea 7.55% department store chains, earned and consolidation expenses related primarily Net Inc 3,700,000 4,100,000 b-Incluc the integration of Broadway Stores. Share earns 98 1.08 20 cents $24.1 million, or 12 cents a share, The results are for the first quarter. Shares outst 3,700,000 4,100,000 compan Brascan compared with a loss of $37.9 million American Re Corp. Great L or 18 cents a share, in the quarter a Yesterday's closing price: $38.75 1st gtr to Mar 31 1997 1996 Toronto year earlier. Revenue 536,800,000 488,600,000 ticker $1 $2 Net Inc 629,900,000 b49,100,000 Results In the 1996 quarter, Federated b-Included net realized capital losses of $1.2 million for the latest quarter GS Tec took a pretax charge of $77 million and net realized capital gains of $1.3 1st qir to for integrating the Broadway retail ing how It distributes merchandise million for the year-ago period. Sales Nei loss chain into its operations and adjust- and orders inventory; the changes Atmos Energy Corp.(ATO,N) b-Includ ing inventory. Before the charge, reduced sales, general and adminis- 2nd gtr to Mar 31 1997 1996 operatio 15-year Revenue 199,847,000 191,104,000 flected OPTIONAL FORM 99 (7-90) t of Nel Inc 614,511,000 18,383,000 West Co. 7.18% Share earns 90 1.15 arli- Shares outst 16,140,000 15,927,000 c-Net Inc FAX TRANSMITTAL 2 from d. b-Included an after-tax charge of $2.8 are # of pages $44,000 at million, or 17 cents a share, on one- Mack ay 3 change in To From time payments made in satisfaction of certain contractual benefits to two and supp rom former executives. Hallwo Phone # a at Dept./Agency Berkshire Hathaway 1st gtr to me- Inc.(BRK.A,N) Revenue The New York Times Net inc Fax # Fax # per- 1st gir to Mar 31 1997 1996 NYT Share ear ent Net Inc 284,400,000 1,668,700,000 Shares our Share earns 231.00 1,398.00 NSN 7540-01-317-7368 5099-101 GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION Shares outst 1,232,245 1,193,512 b-Include from the Borkshire Hathaway reported Invest Key Rates vestment ment gains of $21.3 million for the company Previous Year latest quarter and $1,508,500,000 for partially n percent Yesterday Day Ago the year-ago period. fax char The company sold It had earnings current 1. PRIME RATE 8.50 8.50 8.25 Clinton Now Sees Nafta Extension in '98 from operations of $263.1 million, or $214 a share, for the latest quarter, Healths DISCOUNT RATE 5.00 5.00 5.00 compared with $160.2 million, or $134 1st atr to FEDERAL FUNDS* 5.44 5.42 5.47 a share, for the year-age period. By Bloomberg News Revenue Mr. Clinton has identified as his Net Inc I-MO. TREAS. BILLS 5.01 5.05 4.99 WASHINGTON, May 14 - Borders Group (BGP,N) top priority - the President Share ear 3-MO. TREAS. BILLS 5.28 5.31 5.09 1st qtr to Apr 27 1997 1996 Shares ou President Clinton does not expect hopes to get fast-track authority Sales 463,600,000 404,000,000 b-Include 10-YR. TREAS. INFL." 3.57 3.58 N.A. Net Inc 400,000 b3,400,000 Congress to grant him the negoti- approved "before he goes to San- related 1. Share earns (.04) 10-YR. TREAS. NOTES 6.66 6.71 6.63 announce ating authority to expand the tiago, Chile, for the second Sum- Shares outst 81,868,000 81,834,000 Corp. 10-YR. TREAS. BONDS 6.88 6.92 6.83 b-Net loss North American Free Trade Share ea mit of the Americas" early in TELEPHONE BONDS 7.95 8.03 7.97 The year-ago period ended April 28. Ing for " Agreement to Chile and other 5.98 1998, Mr. McCurry said. (Loss) a preferr MUNICIPAL BONDS*** 5.79 5.82 Latin American countries until Representative Bill Archer, Re- Estimated daily average, Dow Jones Markets Carson Pirie Scott & Co. Hughes *Reatized dollar amount rises with inflation next year. his press secretary publican of Texas and chairman (CRP.N) 1st qtr to **Municipal Bond Index, The Bond Buyer said today. 1997 1996 Sales of the House Ways and Means 1st afr to May 3 Net Inc Sources: Salomon Brothers and Dow Jones Markets Sales 258,134,000 236,769,000 "We are frying a lot of fish c9,686,000 Share ear Committee, in a statement follow- Net Inc b2,609,000 or Treasury's beltwether bonds, notes and bills Share earns 58 Shares ou 16 right now and the kettle is only so ing Mr. McCurry's remarks, Results 1 b-Included . charge of $400,000, or 2 been adj big," the White House spokes- urged the President to "reverse cents a share, on costs associated with addressing the year-2000 prob- poolings man, Michael D. McCurry, told this decision to delay." Mr. Arch- tem and . gain of $100,000 on the sale week, and one of the main questions Interna reporters when asked why efforts er had sought to get fast-track of Investment. The gain did not have an effect on share earnings. Exclud- Entert n the bond-market has been whether to renew the President's fast- authority renewed quickly, but ing one-time items, net Income was 1st qtr to t will raise rates again. $2.9 million, or 18 cents a share. Revenue track trade negotiating authority, key Democrats earlier this week e-After a gain of $9 million, of 53 Net inc Though the Fed has made It clear which limits Congress to accept- rejected a compromise bill that cents a share, on sale of Proffitt's Share ear Inc. stock; a charge of $1.5 million, or Shares or Hat the main concern in setting.' ing or rejecting broad trade included only trade-related labor 9 cents a share, on a charitable con- Revenue nonetary policy is the pace of de- agreeents, appeared to be stalled. and environment clauses. tribution; and $200,000. or 1 cent a share, on write-off of loan fees. Ex- Interns nand growth, not necessarily actual "Realistically, we would have Mr. Archer said a delay would cluding one-time Items, net Income Inc. vidence of inflation, the new num- was $2.4 million, or 15 cents a share. to take a look at the Congression- mean that "many trade opportu- 1st atr to ers must have given the central nitics, amounting to billions of Canadian Occidental Sales al calendar," Mr. McCurry said. Net Inc ank pause, Mr. McCarthy said. Petroleum Ltd.(CXY,A) In light of the debate over a bal- dollars and thousands of Ameri- 1st qtr to Mar 31 1997 1996 Intimal The net result is an economic envi- anced Federal budget - which can jobs, will be lost." Sales 363,000,000 319,000,000 1st atr TO onment that certainly does not war- Net Inc 73,000,000 50,000.000 Sales Share earns 53 37 Net Inc ant further increases in interest Results are In Canadian dollars. Share ear ates," he said, "and we expect the Shares a Canadian Utilities Ltd. ed to refrain from raising rates in Foreign Sales Vital to French Auto Makers 4st qtr to Mar 31 1997 1996 Leon's lay and indeed through the rest of Revenue- 644,300,000 563,000,000 1st gir to Net Inc 65,300,000 b66,400,000 Sales te year." Share earns 1.02 1.04 Net Inc By Bloomberg News In yesterday's huge corporate of- Peugeot's sales rose six-tenths of a b-Included a gain of $1.5 million, or 2 Share ea PARIS, May 14 - France's car percent, to 43.51 billion francs ($7.61 cents a share from the sale of AT- The com :ring. Norfolk Southern sold debt in COR, and a gain of $5.2 million, or 8 quarter, ght levels, ranging from $400 mil- makers posted higher sales in the billion), with a 19 percent rise in cents a share, as a result of colder erations weather. pared A on of three-year notes, at a price to first quarter as growth from foreign sales outside France offsetting a 30 Canadian Utilities is listed on the period. eld 6.75 percent, to $350 million of activities offset a slumping domestic percent domestic dive. The compa- Toronto Stock Exchange with the Leon's I ticker symbol CU. rento St 0-year bonds, priced to yield 7.911 market. ny's unit sales in Western Europe Results are in Canadian dollars. bol LNF ercent. The three-year yield is PSA Peugeot Citroën S.A., the excluding France rose 16 percent Results Clark USA Inc. out 36-hundredths of a percentage country's largest car maker, said and rose 34 percent in the rest of the 1st gfr to Mar 31 1997 1996 MacD int higher than that of a compara- today that worldwide sales rose six- world. Revenue 999,200,000 1,140,200,000 Inc,(M Net loss 47,400,000 24,400,000 e Treasury. The 100-year yield is tenths of 1 percent while Renault Renault said "gains in Western Qtr to M Clark USA said special Items re- Sales out 97-hundredths higher than a S.A., the No. 2, said global sales European sales outside France were duced prelax earnings by $47 million Net inc in the latest quarter, while the year- -year Treasury. Those higher jumped 3 percent. The sales reports slightly higher than expected." Share et ago first quarter included a pretax Shares 0 elds were one reason the corporate came as European Union figures Renault's 47.20 billion francs of gain of $9.3 million. Yr sales Net INC sue siphoned off some of the showed French car registrations sales reflected a 23 percent plunge in Donaldson Co.(DCI,N) Share ed rength of the rally in Treasuries.' were the only ones in Western Eu- domestic sales and a rise of 5 percent 3rd afr to Apr 30 1997 1996 Shares 0 Sales 213.876.000 IRI 05/15/97 THU 11:55 FAX 202 736 7618 SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS 002 Washington Post Staff Writer istration] regulations on the part of 1 industry, business in, general a The House Judiciary Committee yesterday groups across the spectrum," Goo approved by voice vote a bill that would loosen He predicted that support for hi the government's control of one of the most continue to grow as people under arcane yet crucial technologies of the informa- important encryption is to so many 1 tion age-"encryption" technology, or the means for scrambling information to keep it Also yesterday, a group called private. Democratic Coalition, led by Reps. In approving the bill, introduced by Rep. Dooley (D-Calif.), James P. Moran Robert W. Goodlatte (R-Va.), the House took a and Timothy J. Roemer (D-Ind.), ser step toward a showdown with the administra- Clinton signed by 43 members of 1 tion, which has worked hard since the start of calling for the administration to lift President Clinton's first term to check the restrictions on encryption technolog spread of sophisticated encryption technology. See ENCRYPTION, E5, Col. DIGEST Washington to start drafting a bill today were scrapped, but Rep. Philip M. Crane DOW (R-IIL), chairman of the House trade 7286.16 subcommittee, said that unless bill post UP 11.95 writing starts by May 22, no legislation is likely to pass before DETAILS ON next year's congressional election PAGE 2 campaign begins. Amazon.com Inc. bumped up the size and price of its Initial public BONDS offering, a sign of healthy demand 30-YEAR TREASURIES for shares in the Internet book 6.88% YIELD seller. The Seattle-based company -0.04 plans to sell 3 million common shares at $14 to $16 each, according DOLLAR to a regulatory filing. Amazon.com vs. JAPANESE YEN (N.Y.) initially planned to sell 2.5 million 117.20 YEN shares for $12 to $14 each. - 1.30 YEN Striking workers at General Motors' electrical components plants in Warren, Ohio, began to resume President Clinton is considering production following a tentative two dates, June and September, for contract deal that provides them introducing a "fast track" bill with improved job security. The authorizing new trade negotiations, agreement ended a daylong strike Clinton administration officials said. by 8,200 members of the Plans by congressional Republicans See DIGEST, E2, Col. 2 Rudolph A. Pyatt Jr. on black-owned firms' future. Page E3 Union official criticizes US Airways' downsizing. Page E5 MACK- FXI - Per Nelson. P. Date: 05/15/97 Time: 10:42 CWhite House to push ahead for fast-track authority in trade talks WASHINGTON (AP) After a key congressman accused President Clinton of backpedaling, the White House today reaffirmed its commitment to push Congress this year for authority to negotiate a hemisphere-wide free trade agreement. 'We've always said we will try to get it this year, it's just not clear when we're going to try to get it, White House spokesman Mike McCurry said today. A day earlier, McCurry had indicated that Clinton wants the ''fast-track'' authority in place before he goes to Chile next spring for the second Summit of the Americas. That remark prompted Rep. Bill Archer, R-Texas, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, to accuse the administration of backpedaling on its timetable. '`Many trade opportunities amounting to billions of dollars and thousands of American jobs will be lost because the administration has failed to pursue this vital legislation,' Archer said. McCurry said today that his comments on Chile had been misinterpreted, and that fast-track trade negotiations had to be in place well before that 1998 summit. '`In order to have that happen the president needs fast-track authority and we're going to seek and hopefully obtain it this year, he said. Clinton has pledged to ask Congress for "'fast-track'' authority to negotiate trade agreements under expedited procedures that require Congress to accept or reject them without amendments. Asked on Wednesday why the administration was not pursing the legislation right now, McCurry said, 'Because we are frying a lot of fish right now and the kettle is only so big. APNP-05-15-97 1056EDT agenda. 72 Page 1 NEC Principals Meeting July 1, 1997 Agenda I. Tobacco Settlement CBI Carbron Aln Bin RNSEL II. Race Initiative Textle s Arpance 155ue III. Climate Change Have NOT Gone to grips Brd report w our strategy 11 IV. New Ideas Newor Srude's Cummers repat M d info Trade XIX DAMASINS V. Discuss W Neeson NAFTA Report panis Are stin Beids written ?? Fast Track NANCY CAned Hiu Chamr Africa No are pushed Bad ov VI. Updates The dnte Budget and Tax Section 108 report Products Liability Reform Trade Agreements Give Sperliss Covt cAn 7 or Suiden Uyk mutivss to mmori to get PUT section 108 Li Inst trives Stranted Truch WAST until Sept Al / AM some of DN these put together in the The groundwal House Bob hyle to Chan or policy Al Outrench to Business community communication ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Cojtours Are B.G developed W 3 L policy Strikment That yr A.J5 meetivs Sandy B Mecirs Jure 25197 Devive / Corgrats or Chivi man / has Lehitin / Cuba 2 Trade Agerd / SUA vision / Lesacy 2 LAme - jobs 3 NAFTA review 4 7nst Truel 3 LAme trips / Chile JOA- - 3 ons - I Start from where you are 2 PAT 3 David Johnson 4 Rotrooff. 4 other 5 Indi updnt / THE WHITE HOUSE Dous - - I have AV Idea We Need to discuss. today re: you. CAr we get I together A fta to 8. 15 im ? your older tried sid supporter- was 0202 000 4000 USIR CUNG APPRO 8001 008 j Steve OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE 2 Dan OFFICE OF CONGRESSIONAL AFFAIRS 600 17TH STREET, N.W. 3 Andrew WASHINGTON, DC 20508 4 Fric DATE June 27, 1997 } Mack NUMBER OF PAGES EXCLUDING COVER: 6 AGENCY PHONE# FAX# Michael Claussen State 647-1050 647-2762 Nelson Cunningham X5126967575 X62464 Mike Williams X66493 X66468 62604 Todd MENOTHI Commerce 482-3372 482-4420 PROM: Liz Arky Assistant U.S. Trade Representative NNONE: (202) 395-6951 FAX: (202)395-4656 RUSCT Congressional Rollaut of NAFTA Report list TYMENTS: IN preparation for today's conference CAll At 2:45pm. Q202 395 +630 USTR CONG AFPRS 1 004/009 CONGRESSIONAL ROLL-OUT OF NAFTA REPORT To keeping with the overall press strategy, the goal of our Hill strategy should be to present a low- key positive message about the NAFTA in the context of overall trade policy Members who are ONE advocates on trade policy in general, and specifically fast track. will need to be armed with positive arguments. While we do not want to link NAFTA with fast track, our opponents will and therefore our advocates need to be able to respond to the charges that NAFTA is a failure. Members who have been willing to "keep their powder dry" will also need positive reinforcement, particularly with sectoral-specific and state-specific information (where possible). This strategy assumes release of the report on July 1st (or at least before the 4th, during the Congressional recess). Pre-Announcement Provide Members willing to be validators with Executive Summary and sectoral specific information. Preliminary list includes: House: Crane - Chicago Matsui - Sacramento Dooley Fresno/Bakersfield Kolbe - Tucson Dreier - Claremont Ortiz- Corpus Christi Senate: Roth - Wilmington McCain - Phoenix Breaux - New Orleans Lugar - Indianapolis Harkin - Des Moines Grassley - Des Moines Chafee - Rhode Island 0 Ask these Members to issue press statements and/or do talk radio in their districts (where they will be during recess). Matsui's office has offered to do a Dear Colleague prior to recess to send around the Wall Street Journal article Announcement Provide Executive Summary, Presidential transmittal letter and press release to every Congressional office by faxpop. Only 200 copies of full report will be available on date of transmission, to be sent to attached list (since Bonior and several colleagues made a COIR APPRO 0005 document request, these Members will be among the first 200 to get the full report). Once GPO printing is complete, every office will receive a copy. C Send targetted sector-specific transmittal letters to "keep your powder dry" Members. Post-Announcement Congressional staff briefings for: Ways and Means, Finance, House and Senate Commerce, House International Relations, Senate Foreign Relations, House and Senate Agriculture. leadership. New Democrats Member briefing for House Fast Track whip group Congressional hearings: Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee (July 15th?); Senate Commerce (week of July 8th, however, may just invite private sector); House International Trade Subcommittee (date needs to be changed from July 9th) Coordinate Dear Colleagues on pro-NAFTA articles Coordinate letters from Browner, Babbitt and Herman regarding labor and environment to "keep your powder dry" group 14:00 202 395 4000 USTR CONG AFFRS 4. 006/009 First 200 Copies of NAFTA Report House Advocates Rep. Matsui Rep. Eshoo Rep. Dooley Rep. Ortiz Rep. Stenholm Rep. Tauscher Rep. Jim Davis Rep. McCarthy Rep. Jim Moran Rep. Dicks Rep. Archer Rep. Crane Rep. Kolbe Rep. Dreier Rep. Manzullo Rep. Bereuter House Keep Powder Dry Rep. Rangel Rep. Kennelly Rep. Cardin Rep. Levin Rep. Jefferson Rep. McNulty Rep. Neal Rep. Thurman Rep. Becerra Rep. McDermott Rep. Lewis Rep. Fazio Rep. Sawyer Rep. Frost Rep. Chet Edwards Rep. Dingell Rep. Harman Rep. Visclosky Rep. Johnson Rep. Snyder Rep. Stabenow Rep. Clement Rep. Luther USTR CONG AFFRS 007/009 Rep. Price Rep Sanchez Rep. Pomeroy Rep. Serrano Rep. Boswell Rep. Kind Rep. Berry Rep. John Rep. Roemer Rep. Tanner Rep. Lowey Other House Offices with NAFTA Interest Rep. Gephardt Rep. Bonior (sent letter requesting documents relating to report) Rep. Kaptur (Benior letter) Rep. Brown, Sherrod (Bonior letter) Rep. Klink (Bonior letter) Rep Meek (Bonior letter) Rep Hinchey (Bonior letter) Rep. Sanders (Bonior letter) Rep. Miller (Bonior letter) Rep. DeLauro (Bonior letter) Rep. DeFazio (Bonior letter) Rep. Kucinich (Bonior letter) Rep. Obey (Bonior letter) Rep Mink (Bonior letter) Rep Pascarell (Bonior letter) Rep. Stupak (Bonior letter) Rep. Waters Rep. Armey Rep. Cox Rep. Boehner Rep. DeLay Rep. Upton Rep. Young Rep. Morella Rep. Hastert Rep. Barrett Rep. Ewing -Rep. Gilchrest Rep. Boehlert Rep. Campbell 06/27/97 14:06 202 395 4656 USTR CONG AFFRS 008/009 Senate Advocates Sen. Roth Sen. McCain Sen. Grassley Sen. Lugar Sec. Breaux Sen. Harkin Sen. Chafee Sen. Gramm Sen. Hatch Senate Keep Powder Dry Sen. Baucus Sen. Brownback Sen. Bryan Sen Cochran Sen. Collins Sen. Craig Sen. Daschie Sen. Dodd Sen. Domenici Sen. Durbin Sen. Feinstein Sen. Graham Sen Gregg Sen. Hutchison, Kay Sen. Jeffords Sen. Kennedy Sen. Kerrey Sen. Kerry Sen. Kyl Sen Landrieu Sen. Leahy Sen. Lieberman Sen. Lott Sen. Mack Sen. Moseley-Braun Sen. Murkowski Sen. Murray Sen. Nickles Sen. Robb Sen. Roberts Sen. Rockefeller Sen Thomas Sen. Torricelli USIR Arriko See Wyden The Big 8 Trade Staff (3 Copies) Bride Wilson, House Ways and Means Committee, Democratic Staff Theima Askey, House Ways and Means Committee Deboie Lamb, Senate Finance Committee, Democratic Staff Brik Autor, Senate Finance Committee, Democatic Staff Milks Wessel, Office of Minority Leader Gardner Peckham, Office of Speaker Gingrich Rolf Lundberg, Office of Senate Majority Leader Mik Samans, Office of the Senate Democratic Leader Other Primary Trade Staff (60 copies) Cynthia Johnson, Rep. Matsui, Ranking on WM Trade Subcommittee Meredith Broadbent, Rep. Crane, Chair on WM Trade Subcommittee Teremy Preiss, Senate Finance Committee Londa Menghetti, Senate Finance Committee, Democratic Staff sill Froymoyer, Office of Minority Leader WM Committee LA's (37 copies) Finance Committee LA's (18 copies) Chair and Ranking Members for Relevant Committees (35 copies) House International Relations Committee Subcommittee on Economic Policy and Trade Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere House Agriculture Committee House Commerce Committee House Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Commerce, State, and Justice House Banking Committee Flouse Judiciary Committee Senate Agriculture Committee Sunate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on Economic Policy, Export, and Trade Promotion Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Signate Commerce Committee Senate Judiciary Committee Senate Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Commerce, State, and Justice Ensh.se Jun 14/57 I Bann update / fulbl 2His lendership - Vicc. Status - Potes my mole - Chromal Too mal { Camlese - stroug equities name Lit Crliver }} / Iffegrate SLPU stregh Sisun stem stufft New fresh Every ] Advocnte / condisctor / spokesmal Cardsn Co-Che Co- Chr Eashise LA Central Enshire Visit June 17/97 5 tratus 2 7AST Trad Needs PLANNING Thought / Condinction / ROLLOCT / ENENSY / Focus PAT Griffil Support Build support / Bill - - Hili - - / Bridge DLC to Repl. LAme / Business W Time support my rol Constribute Resources watnonz - reirfacing / Sture 2 sheet Expectation Equities LAme credsbolity Daley Charlere Rubid Albright MY Attitude - NAFTA review EAST lie about History - Chile WALK AWAY investable from .t Emphasize good 5 tony No: CAme re: the DOTES THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON June 10, 1997 MEMORANDUM FOR MACK McLARTY FROM: NELSON CUNNINGHAM my ANDREW FRIENDLY STEVE RONNEL @ SUBJECT: GOALS AND TALKING POINTS FOR FAST TRACK MEETING WITH CHIEF OF STAFF Per your request, here is a memo outlining specific goals and talking points for a conversation with Erskine Bowles. GOALS 1. GET A STATUS REPORT FROM COS ON WHITE HOUSE STRUCTURE AND ROLL OUT STRATEGY Talking points: Has Pat Griffin agreed to join the team? When do you want to announce your team on fast track? Who will be the principals and what will be their roles? How do you see my role as it relates to Pat Griffin and Charlene? 2. GET A COMMITMENT FROM COS THAT YOU WILL BE A PART OF THE INITIAL ANNOUNCEMENT AND A KEY FIGURE (CO-CHAIRMAN) ON THE TEAM Talking points: As you know, I want to contribute to the fast track strategy as a principal. I hope you will announce my involvement when you announce Pat Griffin and the rest of our team. I would like to be a "co-chairman" of the WH task force. In the region, I am expected as Special Envoy - to help lead the charge for fast track. Fast track is critical to our credibility in the hemisphere. As you know, the President will take two more trips to Latin America. Our ability to advance the ball on fast track will directly effect the outcome of the President's travel, especially at the summit in Santiago next March -- where we promised to deliver on fast track and make progress toward the FTAA. Also, my standing in the business community, my contacts in the media, and my relationships on the Hill, all should be seen as an additive to this team and should make my serving as a co-chair a natural assignment. Furthermore, I have resources in my Office of Special Envoy that I would be willing to contribute to the task force staff. 2. DEFINE WHAT YOUR ROLE SHOULD BE Talking points: I believe my role as a co-chair should be the following: A public advocate, traveling the country (this summer and fall) and the hemisphere (possible CODEL in August) with a clear message about the importance of trade, NAFTA's success, the need for U.S. leadership in international commerce, and the need for fast track. A primary liaison to the business community, working to secure endorsements and public support from business. A primary spokesman, getting our message out in the media -- helping to shape stories and respond quickly to false info and attacks from critics. A Congressional lobbyist, supporting Pat Griffin and Charlene on the Hill -- especially with Republican members. My ties are strong on both sides of the aisle. 3. PUSH COS FOR AN EARLY ANNOUNCEMENT OF FAST TRACK TEAM Talking points: As you know, the NAFTA review is due July 1. The perceived value of NAFTA will directly impact our ability to win votes in Congress on fast track. We have much work to do to convince others that NAFTA has been a good deal. As a result, I believe our "fast track team" should be announced ASAP, certainly before July 1, to help get our message out about the benefits of NAFTA and trade in general. Also, an early announcement will help stem the current criticism over our "September strategy." We must fill the vacuum that currently exists with an early announcement of the President's team. We must begin putting our message out. Currently, 64% of Americans believe trade is bad for the U.S. (According to US Dept. of Commerce). I believe that much work can be done NOW to publicly define the value of trade and exports to our economy. Frankly, I believe our opposition already has the upper hand. We simply can not afford to wait -- we must begin delivering these messages BEFORE we introduce our fast track legislation and before we reach consensus on labor and environment. Enshire MAY 29/97 PAndol my in thest petrement Tunds SUA - resp rots Bus. , Herest Corguess Clistr LegAcy - Trade Hemosphere SUA SALTS Communicating NAFTA review Nove OLT 745- True support - Addrew participat Volusteering + d, - stop up frinities my staff Ers Line Smale Dolibies Doh Rest NOTIONAL PROGRAM FOR SPECIAL ENVOY MCLARTY OAS GENERAL ASSEMBLY AND RELATED EVENTS Friday, May 30 12:57 PM AMERICAN #813 DEPARTS NATIONAL EN ROUTE MIAMI 3:36 PM ARRIVE MIAMI 4:55 PM AMERICAN #917 DEPARTS MIAMI EN ROUTE LIMA, PERU 9:51 PM ARRIVE LIMA Note: Ambassador Dennis C. Jett will meet you Check into Oro Verde Hotel Av. Santo Toribio 173 San Isidro, Lima tel: (51-1-4-21-4400) Saturday, May 31 MORNING OPEN (CAR AND DRIVER AVAILABLE) 1:00 PM LUNCH Location: Jose Antonio Restaurant Attending: You, Donna, DCM and Mrs. Sheila Mack Note: This will be followed by tour of Lima by car 3:30 PM RETURN TO HOTEL 4:00 PM OAS DELEGATION MEETING Location: Sala "El Mirador" - El Olivar Hotel, 6th floor. (optional) 6:00 PM DEPART EN ROUTE AMBASSADOR'S RESIDENCE 6:30 PM INFORMAL CHAT W/ AMBASSADOR JETT 7:00 PM DINNER Location: Ambassador's residence Amb. Babbitt Prime Minister and wife Vice Foreign Minister President of the Congress (invited) (all English speakers) RON ORO VERDE HOTEL Sunday, June 1 MORNING PRE-BRIEFING FOR MEETINGS 9:45 AM PULL ASIDE W/ INSULZA 10:00 AM CO-CHAIR OF SUMMIT OF AMERICAS FOLLOW-UP MTG. **LUNCH IS OPEN***** 2:15 PM COURTESY CALL ON SEC. GEN. GAVIRIA 3:00 PM INFORMAL DIALOGUE OF OAS FOREIGN MINISTERS Location: Oro Verde Hotel Note: you will make brief remarks focused on OAS and administration policy towards hemisphere; adopt "Commitment of Lima" (text now under study) 4:00 PM MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER TUDELA Location: Oro Verde Hotel; room will be prepared for Peruvian Delegation Note: you will be accompanied by AS Davidow, Ambassadors Jett and Babbitt. 6:00 PM ATTEND FORMAL OPENING CEREMONY Location: Ursula (across street from hotel) Note: you will be seated on stage with other heads of delegation; speeches by President Fujimori, Sec. Gen Gaviria at Colegio Santa 7:00 PM CALL ON PRESIDENT FUJIMORI Location: Presidential Palace Note: you will be accompanied by A/S Davidow, Ambassadors Jett and Babbitt 8:00 PM DINNER FOR HEADS OF DELEGATION Location: Palacio de Gobierno Note: will be hosted by President Fujimori Monday, June 2 MORNING U.S. BASED PRESS ROUNDTABLE BREAKFAST 10:00 AM OASGA PLENARY SESSION Note: you will be the 4th speaker, speech focused on results of POTUS trip *****LUNCH OPEN (POSSIBLE BILATERAL OR MULTILATERAL MTG. TIME TBD BILATERALS Note: with Mexico, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama. 8:00 PM RECEPTION HOSTED BY AMBASSADOR JETT Location: U.S. Embassy RON ORO VERDE HOTEL Tuesday, June 3 8:00 AM BREAKFAST SPEECH TO AMERICAN C.O.C. Location: Club de la Banca, Banco de Santander - 18th floor, San Isidro. 9:00 AM PRESS AVAILABILITY 10:00 AM MEETING W/ JORGE SANTISTEVAN Location: Oro Verde Hotel Note: he is Peru's Human Rights Ombudsman 10:30 AM TOUR OF USAID PROJECT Note: you will be accompanied by Ambassador Jett, Hernan de Soto, AID Director Don Boyd, and USAID Assistant Administrator Norma Parker. Donna will join you and you will have lunch en route to Airport. 1:30 PM DEPART EN ROUTE AIRPORT 3:00 PM AVIANCA #78 DEPARTS EN ROUTE QUITO 5:00 PM ARRIVE QUITO, ECUADOR Note: you will be met by Ambassador Leslie Alexander and Control Officer. Transfer to Ambassador's residence (Counselor and Mrs. McLarty and A/S Davidow ) - and Hotel Colon (rest of delegation). Hotel Colon Avenidas Amazonas y Patria Quito, Ecuador Tels: 593-2-561-333 or 593-2-562-888 5:30 PM ARRIVE RESIDENCE 7:00 PM DEPART FOR PRESIDENCY 7:30 PM MTG. W/ PRESIDENT FABIAN ALARCON 8:30 PM DINNER Location: Presidential Palace Note: dinner will be hosted by President Alarcon and attended by Special Envoy and Mrs. McLarty, Assistant Secretary Davidow and Ambassador Alexander 10:30 PM DEPART PALACE EN ROUTE RESIDENCE RON: RESIDENCE Wednesday, June 4 7:00 AM BREAKFAST Location: Residence Note: rest of delegation has breakfast at Hotel Colon. 8:00 AM POSSIBLE PRESS AVAILABILITY 8:30 AM DEPART RESIDENCE EN ROUTE MILITARY AIRPORT 9:00 AM DEPART QUITO VIA U.S. AIR FORCE C-21 FOR MACAS 09:40 AM ARRIVE MACAS Note: transfer to US Army Blackhawk helicopters 09:50 AM DEPART FOR PATUCA (MOMEP BASE ON BORDER) 10:15 AM ARRIVE PATUCA 10:30 AM BRIEFING BY MOMEP 11:30 AM DEPART FOR HELICOPTER OVERFLIGHT OF THE DMZ (weather permitting) 12:30 PM RETURN TO PATUCA 12:45 PM LUNCH WITH U.S. TROOPS 1:45 PM WALK-THROUGH MOMEP FACILITIES AND HOUSING FOR U.S. TROOPS 2:00 PM DEPART PATUCA VIA HELICOPTER FOR MACAS 2:25 PM ARRIVE MACAS, TRANSFER TO C-21 2:35 PM DEPART MACAS FOR QUITO 3:15 PM ARRIVE QUITO MILITARY AIRPORT - TRANSFER TO RESIDENCE 3:30 PM ARRIVE RESIDENCE 4:30 PM COFFEE Location: Residence Note: American business leaders and selected Ecuadorian participants 6:00 PM DINNER Location: Residence Note: the dinner will be with Foreign Minister Ayala Lasso and Border Negotiator Teran, hosted by Ambassador Alexander. 8:15 PM DEPART FOR AIRPORT 9:15 PM DEPART QUITO BY AIR FOR LIMA 11:15 PM ARRIVE LIMA - PROCEED TO ORO VERDE HOTEL Thursday, June 5 4:30 AM DEPART HOTEL FOR AIRPORT : 6:10 AM DEPART BY AIR FOR CUZCO 7:15 AM ARRIVE CUZCO *****Free day for touring (Cuzco is historic and beautiful city)***** Friday, June 6 ALL DAY TRAVEL TO MACCHU PICCHU AND BACK RON: CUZCO, PERU Hotel Monasterio Saturday, June 7 10:35 AM AEROPERU #615 DEPARTS CUZCO EN ROUTE LIMA 11:45 AM ARRIVE LIMA SIGHTSEEING IN LIMA***** 11:20 PM AMERICAN #918 DEPARTS LIMA EN ROUTE MIAMI Sunday, June 8 5:58 AM ARRIVE MIAMI 7:55 AM AMERICAN #214 DEPARTS EN ROUTE WASHINGTON NATIONAL 10:17 AM ARRIVE NATIONAL AIRPORT EB, Geve, Vich, Dr T, Pilesna ,Sun B JAY Bank July 11/97 have HASCOX Testinury question BUT favorble Vich: ?! 7.7 100% ready X Pride-pors mutias of Wel in Dr T NEC 16D - 21 - 22 July X Susns B nut is to an Susrd Are were we well mutivss in PoTrs - 2 requests - CANCUS " meeting per FusN B. Susn B - Business - mare Skive ** MAtsui or not XX ANNOUNCENT middle of x well Vichi ins.de loside Jame (comer) padas Bermal protect sm - P- wal Geve NAFTA france a Bnd ove very concerning A the frame our poster children picture 1 Bowles / Chanlere / hyle / Sperling / Radd /Rubiv / DAT.) Was / Rahm Review FAST Truck July 9/97 w Necson & Skue WANE HANCOX- Poins meet's J Bunn Tues - -EB mule of XA harped Imp to Not our role Un bulla Group Case - Drd Chn. NOT concert JAY ter - V WAR Room What walirs groups - our role Ensured I discussed POLICY meetives per Gene BUT Jardy rol Bund would come Do we JAY or Board w the struture PIN - Goal imp I NO The Bunn Home Base per Rub.1 Support people Budget Bonster Walk.Vsgrocy Tin beige Tracs Climite A conlistion Todd drafthe Frime this 2 Bill / Timits - Charleve 155 a 2nd Weel is Sept. Decisions By the middle Consult I J Juy - Sept " CESO Style 1 11 Corcern Discuss U Nelson meetivs v5 14 the Principans L Pots Decisions / the message 1 Before sharpering of the messure Cast Ash Business Communix to COBBY - 2 Welle / T.U. rodio Ads & Ground my can POT'S Give / Budset /Coscress Geso Charline meetings W Cosquess / Gese takes Exception without r: to Budget outrand Rnhm your piece of it is 77 Amorphous BUSINESS front -ed understandits per Rshn 3 BAT p/r firms per Charleve Vote courtas - CAlio - Champlin mid Sept Enshise di frevented his nole, Robit, from me 710w Chart THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON July 8, 1997 Mack, Attached is my first cut at the Fast Track Game Plan. I thought you might like to review it before our 3:30 p.m. meeting. Bob Attachment: Draft Fast Track Game Plan - FAST TRACK GAME PLAN Phase One: Present -September Summary: Our goals during this period are to: 1) establish a virtual war room, including a White House coordinator and supporting resources; 2) finalize our substantive positions, particularly regarding the uses of fast track and labor/environment; 3) implement an aggressive, early outreach effort to staunch further attrition on the Hill; 4) work with key constituencies (e.g., business, agriculture) to organize their efforts and push back against early opposition efforts; 5) lay the groundwork for broader support among the press, state/local officials, think tanks, validators and others; 6) develop a communications and legislative game plan for September and beyond. The first step is to develop an interim organizational structure. Until a coordinator is chosen, Sperling/Tarullo/Steinberg, working closely with Ambassador Barshefsky, should convene regular Virtual Warroom meetings to assess progress and give overall direction, particularly as to non-policy aspects of the effort. The coordinator would assume chairmanship of this group once he is on board. A separate NSC/NEC Principal or Deputies group would address policy issues and continue to operate even after the coordinator is chosen. (This follows the organizational structure of the NAFTA effort.) Below these umbrella groups, we would form three interagency working groups (Legislative, Communications/Outreach and Policy) to meet at least weekly. USTR would be the lead agency in the effort. The White House staff team should consist of officials largely dedicated to this effort from the following disciplines: legislative, communications, policy, public liaison, political, Vice President's office, McLarty's office, intergovernmental and cabinet affairs. In addition, we would assemble a group of 4-5 agency detailees that would assist the effort generally and assist the coordinator once he is on board. We will provide Erskine with proposed lists. We also need to sharpen our message. USTR has produced a solid foundation, as reflected in its main message document, substantial Q&A's, a defense of NAFTA and the NAFTA side agreements and other documents. However, we need to resolve fundamental questions relating to the scope of the agreements we would seek and labor/environment positions. (This needs to be done soon to permit some quiet Hill consultations in late July, leading to a roll-out in early September.) We also need to dramatize key arguments (e.g., the costs of inaction, the size and extent of foreign trade barriers), develop better anecdotes, and build the geographic and sectoral data to prove the case for expanded trade. We also should use this period to assemble our coalition. The business community needs to step up their fundraising efforts (they are raising $2-3 million; $3-5 million was raised for the Uruguay Round fight, $10 million for NAFTA), broaden their coalition, create a grass roots operation (including district efforts in August), mount an August advertising campaign and develop a fall strategy. We should also engage the agriculture community, which became more active on China MFN. Governors, local leaders, Hispanics, opinion leaders, validators and others also need to be engaged. 2 Perhaps the most immediate challenge is to avoid losing more Hill votes during this interim period. The President should hold one or two meetings with targeted House members prior to the August recess, various Cabinet members should be active (both inside and outside Washington), and the business community should be energized to launch an ad campaign to counter an expected opposition campaign in August/September. Administration/Internal - Start regular meetings (Ongoing) - NEC/NSC Principlals or Deputies policy meetings (as needed) (NSC/NEC) - Regular WH Virtual War Room meetings (NEC/NSC/USTR) - Weekly Interagency Working Group meetings - Legislative (Brophy/Arky) - Communications/Outreach (D. Johnson?/Ziegler) - Policy (Kyle/Novick) - Secure WH fast track coordinator (WH COS/USTR)(end of July) - Assemble White House team (WH COS/NEC) (July 15) (proposed list being provide to Erskine) - Retain 4-5 agency detailees to assist effort (WH COS/NEC/NSC)(end of July) (proposed list to be provided to Erskine) - Develop plan for broader Cabinet role (WH Cabinet Affairs/USTR) (July 20) Policy - Finalize substantive positions (Tarullo/Barshefsky/Kyle) - Uses of fast track (July 18) - Labor/Environment (July 18) - List of sectoral initiatives (July 18) - Form of proposed legislation (notional plan by July 18; legislation by late July) - Administration Statement of Intent (late July) - Sharpen affirmative arguments (NEC/USTR/WH Communications)(July 25) - Costs of Inaction - Foreign barriers high than U.S. - Other key arguments - Sharpen key defensive arguments (NEC/USTR/WH Communications (July 25) - Defense of NAFTA - Defense of NAFTA side agreements - Develop additional labor/environment border achievements - Sharpen key Q&A's - Other key defenses - Develop anecdotes/data for use in effort (USTR/Commerce/NEC) (end of July) - Sharpen state-by-state data - Develop anecdotes (including Council of America examples) - Other data/examples 3 Communications - Develop overall communications action plan for July-September (USTR/NEC/NSC) (July 11) - Sharpen main message (Sperling/Baer/USTR) (July 25) - Coordinate other trade activities with fast track (NEC/USTR) - NAFTA Report (Week of July 7) - Section 108 (FTA Report) (USTR/NEC) (To be released in the fall - Develop list of other events that might have impact on fast track and monitor (USTR) (July 20) - Develop speaking calendar for Administration officials (USTR/NSC Communications) (July 15) - Develop rapid response capability (USTR/NSC Communications) (July 15) - Outreach to key reporters/editorial board writers to reinforce message and commitment (USTR/NSC) (Ongoing) - Begin validator outreach (USTR/NSC) (Ongoing; secure many by fall kick-off) - Former Presidents - Former Secretaries of State, Treasury, Commerce, USTR and NSC Advisors (respective agencies responsible for securing) - Other validators (Communications group to determine) - Explore September POTUS kick-off event (NEC/WH Communications) (August) - Develop action plan for fall communications campaign (Sperling/Baer/USTR) - Develop strategy for responding to anticipated AFL-CIO August/fall ad campaign (NEC/WH Communications/USTR) (July 25) Legislative (Provided separately by WH Legislative) Outreach - Business - Meeting with senior Administration officials and Business Roundtable CEO's (Sperling/Other Cabinet officials) (Week of July 14) - Other Cabinet calls to CEO's, as appropriate (NEC/USTR) (by late July) - Encourage desired business activity (USTR/WH Public Liaison) (late July): - Raise sufficient funds - Retain outside advisors (Wexler already retained) - Organize grassroots efforts - Start advertising campaign - Share information on Congressional effort - Develop small business participation (McLarty office/WH Public Liaison) (end of July) - Attend weekly meetings of business fast track coalition (USTR/NEC) - Counter August/Labor Day labor advertising campaign (USTR/WH Communications/NEC) (Plan by July 25) - Secure industry support for sectoral initiatives (USTR) (July 30) - Agriculture - Gain full support of all groups (USTR/Agriculture) (late July) 4 - Encourage organizational efforts (USTR/Agriculture) (Ongoing) - Think Tanks/Policy Organizations (USTR) (Ongoing) - Council of the Americas - Inter-American Dialogue - Heritage Foundation - DLC/PPI - Citizens for a Sound Economy - AEI - Brookings - Others - State/Local Officials/Hispanics (WH Intergovernmental/WH Political/USTR) (Ongoing) - Develop expressions of support (governors, mayors, etc.) - Develop broader plan for their assistance in this effort - Manage various policy issues affecting these interests (e.g., Massachusetts Burma sanctions legislation) - Labor/Environmental Groups (USTR/Podesta/McGinty) (Ongoing) - Continue consultations, as appropriate - Consider other Administration initiatives responsive to labor/environmental concerns July 9, 1997 MEMORANDUM FOR: Erskine Bowles FROM: Susan Brophy RE: Fast Track The purpose of this memorandum is to provide you with a congressional strategy for the next three months, with the greatest emphasis on July and August. We will provide a more specific plan for September, October and November based upon the outcome of our activities over the summer. The objectives of the congressional strategy over the course of the next several months should be twofold. First, we need to continue to set the foundation by providing a broader understanding on the Hill about the elements of fast track and why it is necessary. Second, on a working-level we need to be in a position to transmit a bill the first of September upon Congress' return from the August recess. While continuing to educate Members we have not yet reached, we must go back to key Members over the summer in order to prepare and negotiate our proposal. To plan and implement these efforts, two legislative working groups have been formed, both of which will be managed by me. A small working group within the Executive Office of the President will develop strategies, consisting of representatives from the White House, NSC, USTR Congressional Affairs and the Office of the Special Envoy for the Americas (SEA). A large interagency group will focus on implementation, consisting of representatives from NSC, USTR, Treasury, State, Commerce, USDA, DOD, Labor, EPA, HHS, and SEA. I. Congress -- Educational Efforts on Fast Track and the Trade Agenda Ambassador Barshefsky has already met with approximately 170 Members and has honed an effective argument for the needs and uses of fast track. As part of this effort, Members have been provided with a better sense of the trade agenda, the accomplishments of the Clinton Administration and basic elements of the multilateral trading system. Members have appreciated the oral briefings and the materials we have provided, although additional requests have been made for information on the NAFTA (which will be satisfied by the NAFTA report) and basic information about trade and the history of fast track (a "primer"). Members have also requested talking points that could be used to explain the trade agenda and fast track to their constituents. These materials should be developed before Members return to their districts in August. In addition to providing materials, it should be noted that there is no substitute for Member to Member and Principal to Member contact to reinforce our message. We should continue efforts with House Members who voted 1). yes NAFTA; 2). Freshman/Sophomores in districts where the previous member voted for NAFTA; 3). Freshman/Sophomores in district where the previous member voted against NAFTA; 4). yes on GATT, no on NAFTA. We will meet with Members individually as well as in small and large groups. Whenever Chairman Archer believes it is the appropriate time (probably in the fall), Cabinet Members will begin meeting with House Republicans in groups (e.g., Freshmen). We have been informed by Democratic leadership that at some point, probably in the fall, an Administration official will be asked to appear before the House Democratic Caucus. Some of the larger groups with which we will meet are as follows: Large Groups Senate Finance Committee Senate Freshmen House Freshmen House Democratic Whip Group (particularly on the NAFTA report) House Ways and Means Democrats Other Committees' Democrats where appropriate, such as, House Small Business and Banking Committee Democrats (who offered) Black Caucus Hispanic Caucus New Democrats Blue Dogs Democratic Study Group State Delegations On both public and congressional outreach, in addition to Ambassador Barshefsky who is already fully engaged, we should enlist Administration officials Albright, Daley, Rubin, Glickman, Cohen, Berger, Shalala, Herman, Browner and McLarty in the effort to meet with Members to make the case for fast track. Sub-cabinet Members will be asked to assist where appropriate. In early July, staff calls will be made to every Congressional office on an interagency basis, in order to get a very preliminary whip list developed. There is no substitute for Presidential involvement prior to the recess, most effectively captured in a few group meetings with Members. This list would include approximately 30-50 Members, particularly those Democrats who will be targeted by labor in August. This group should include some of the Democratic whip group, such as Matsui, Moran, Dooley, McCarthy (Dooley and McCarthy are targeted); key players in the caucus who we want to be part of the whip effort such as Rangel, Fazio and Murtha; Ways and Means Democrats such as Kennelly; and freshmen such as Boswell and Kind who want to be with us but will be torn because of labor. We especially need to step up outreach to the Senate. II. Possible Bill Progression Schedule Generally, when we made the decision to postpone transmission of the bill until September we received indications from Leadership that they expect to be able to move the bill expeditiously 2 once the bill is transmitted. The House is scheduled to return from the August recess on Wednesday, September 3rd and the Senate returns on Tuesday the 2nd. The schedule will obviously be determined by the relevant Committees and Leadership, but we can assume the following: Ways and Means Trade subcommittee markup could occur during the second week of September with full Committee markup either the third or fourth week of September. The proposed bill could reach the House floor by the first or second week in October. The Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on June 3rd and could potentially mark up during mid-September so that the Senate could act on the bill that comes over from the House in early to mid October. Senator Lott noted that the Congress intends to adjourn by November 14th and Thanksgiving at the latest. Please keep in mind the fact that this bill will not proceed under the Fast Track. It will have to pass the House and Senate, go to Conference and pass the House and Senate again. We will not be able to prevent Amendments from being added in the Senate. It is critical that by the third week of July, we must come to decisions on key policy issues such as duration, scope, labor and environment in the legislation. Before Members leave for the August recess we should have a good sense of where they are on these issues as well so that final negotiations can take place upon their return in September. The first week of September we will finalize consultations, begun prior to recess, with a broad range of Members. The goal is to transmit a bill the first week of September, although it may be more realistic to expect transmission the second week of September, so that it could be introduced in both Houses the second week of September. It should be noted that while the committees of primary jurisdiction are Ways and Means and Finance, depending on how the bill is written, the Rules Committees may have jurisdiction as well. In addition, because of the interest in the issue, multiple other committees will certainly hold hearings as well (which was our experience with NAFTA). III. Bill Preparation In order to be in a position to transmit a bill in September, we must meet again with a number of key Members, individually and in groups. From a substantive and tactical perspective, the first groups should include Democrats who will form the whip group, and the Ways and Means Democrats. Substantively, the Democratic whip group can provide an indication of what language could garner the most votes, specifically with respect to labor and environment. The Ways and Means Democrats must be consulted on the same issues (as promised), and tactically this should occur in early to mid-July. We need to identify a core group of Democrats to join the whip effort and who are willing to do so early, in the face of labor opposition; this list would include Rangel, Matsui, Berman, Murtha, Dingell, Hoyer, Fazio, Gejdenson, Hamilton, Markey, Eshoo, Roemer, Moran, McCarthy, Davis and Tauscher. There may be a few of these who the President should phone and request their assistance (Murtha) or other cabinet members should 3 approach (Rubin call/meet with Rangel). Once meetings with selected Democrats have taken place, meetings with key Republican House staffers should take place so that meetings may occur with the key Republican leaders the third and fourth weeks of July. These key Members include Gingrich, Armey, Archer, Crane, Dreier, DeLay, Hastert, Boehner, Kaisich and Paxon. At the same time, we need to have similar meetings on the Senate side -- with key Senators such as Lott, Daschle, Roth, Moynihan, Grassley, Rockefeller, Baucus and Breaux -- in close proximity to House meetings. An objective should be to ensure the creation of a Senate whip operation. It should be noted that Senate Finance Committee staffers are meeting this week to begin drafting their own language. This process can be helpful to our own and we should work closely with them. IV. Public Agenda: Public Affairs Planning It is important to ensure that there is a nexus between the public affairs and congressional strategies. The public affairs activities should be targeted to Members and their districts; we should create the impetus in their districts that leads Members to the conclusion that they must do the right thing and vote for the legislation. The fast track talking points provide a more positive and aggressive cut on the trade agenda and should be distributed to all members of the Cabinet that may become involved in discussion of trade issues (see attached package); these materials have been provided to some friendly House Democrats at their request. We will refine points, and develop new ones as issues are identified, so that we can provide Q&A information to be reviewed by principals this week. During this month we will have an opportunity to begin Cabinet outreach outside Washington, and inform key reporters, editorial boards, and opinion writers about the trade agenda. We also need to begin active involvement with the business community so that they can effectively communicate with their constituencies about fast track and the trade agenda. July and August: The Lead-Up to Fast Track Introduction As part of the overall strategy, while Members are in town during July, our efforts should be devoted to base-building and opinion leader outreach in July. We will focus on hands-on discussions with all Members to get a baseline of support and to identify where our opportunities for support lie. During July we should devote efforts to outreach in these Members' districts through op-eds, talk-radio and satellite feeds. In August, to solidify support among Members and offset the massive television campaign planned by the AFL-CIO, several cabinet officials should travel to key areas of the country, provide satellite feeds and do talk radio in targeted congressional districts as well. Outreach 4 would focus on Democratic and Republican vote-rich areas that benefit from trade; these targets may change over time as we see where Members are lining up. Several cabinet members would be involved in the trips and many will be responsive to Member interest and requests. The trips should highlight at least a couple of different sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, high- technology and services. The following is a list of potential media markets (this list will undoubtedly expand once targets are finalized): Northeast -- New York City, Albany, Hartford, Baltimore, Boston Midwest -- Detroit, Lansing, Akron, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, LaCrosse, Green Bay, Bismarck, Des Moines Southeast -- Nashville, Little Rock, Memphis, Raleigh, New Orleans, Tampa, Tallahassee, Atlanta, Dallas, El Paso West -- Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Sacramento, Seattle, Portland, Phoenix, Denver September: Bill Introduction As stated above, the events surrounding the introduction of the bill will be determined in conjunction with the Committee and Leadership. We will expand this section once we know more about the make-up of the bill as well as the sense of the congress once the bill is about to be introduced. CODELs It has been suggested by McLarty and others that a CODEL to South America would be helpful to the effort. Our recommendation is that we let the Hill know we are available but let requests come from the Hill. 5 WEEK-TO-WEEK PLAN Week of July 7th Finalize plan of action for July, August and September Finalize message documents Begin staff level interagency calls to all Congressional offices to create preliminary whip list Schedule principal meetings for month of July: Senate Finance; Senate Freshmen; Democrats whips; W&M Democrats; key Republicans; various large and small groups Transmission of NAFTA report; ensure Congressional, business and opinion maker validators; plant seeds for supportive Dear Colleague letters Contact staffs to House Democrats who would form core whip group and W&M trade staff to ensure support and seek bill language guidance Contact Senate Finance staff re. their bill Cabinet Member and Administration official meetings with key opinion leaders in the press/editorial boards, constituency leaders and business groups -- list determined by legislative targets. Week of July 14th Complete interagency calls to create preliminary whip list Possible W&M NAFTA Hearing on 16th Senate Commerce NAFTA Hearing on 16th (no Admin. witnesses) Organize positive Dear Colleagues on NAFTA Report Cabinet Member meetings should be sought with Dems whip group and W&M Dems first; individual, small and large group meetings as they can be scheduled Targeted cabinet member meetings/calls (e.g., Rubin and Rangel) Prepare fast track "primer" and talking points for Members Meet with staffs to key Republicans re. bill language Meet with Senate Finance staff re. bill language Cabinet Member and Administration official meetings with key opinion leaders in the press/editorial boards, constituency leaders and business groups [end of week target for completion of tax and spending bill conferences] Week of July 21st Key internal decisions on scope, timing, etc. must be made in order to produce the bill in a timely fashion Cabinet Member and Administration official meetings continue Seek Senate Finance Committee Executive Session Seek meetings with key House Republican Members and Senate leadership re. bill language 6 POTUS calls to selected Dems to join whip effort (e.g., Murtha) POTUS meeting with 30-50 House and Senate Dems Cabinet Member and Administration official meetings with key opinion leaders in the press/editorial boards, constituency leaders and business groups Week of July 28th Preliminary base-touching with key Members on substance of the bill Cabinet Member meetings continue Second POTUS meeting with House and Senate Dems Follow-up meetings with House and Senate key staff re. bill language [end of week target for completion of action on tax and spending bills] August Outreach Cabinet Members and Administration officials begin outreach in targeted areas around the country through travel, satellites, op/eds, talk radio Business community begins outreach on importance of the trade agenda Editorial and opinion leader outreach to continue 7 Dorna Nuthing, Charleve just Ralen / G/A "spit" mystified Soph In Hisl "ANNAYEP" "persistic 2vd guessiss Most danssing psycho 1m.34cm worrid & Investantel Paster Howard Enstive -> NO cutra 1.5m Hilley wind. 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Business plw / Wel near PIN Evolive Bob, mnd, Drd I Bker Bob anham poids 8 NOT throwis N the tower / Sustaivel serios 2 insentive hyle Meeting July 8/97 achieve momester schedule seriousness of of lin puppose victory/ / Honorny Chairs Evl sam Mitchell Hills - Freszil 2 WH / CAbiNeT support BACAROL Johnson Unldez O'heefe Ronnel others / friendly Willy Need political person /Peta WALKE Rolt coff Scheren IBher BM-E - TANA 3 Potus ANNOUNCEMENT of Beinn L term incl. me and Honorny Chrs. Groups 1501 4 BUSINESS support / # for Ad CAMPAIST / Boonstein idea 2 5 Potus Tone / What 's estake mutivss we mensus NOW Legary / Imp / incl. Edit. His Popes remail, 6 P/N B In fust True, / JOA Fisher Rotreiff BAer Eric Necsor Steve Sosnil Podesin 7 Podes Tra /LABA outrench Positive BUT pailous IV 7 opivior POTUS to Negat V < Gre to Negrt WENY 8 N (7,B / CAC Support /outrenal I 3 9 Popus trips is Oct / April traber 1140 ACCOUNT AREC Nov. 10 Cosquessiva Outreal DLC Brookings Cof Arre Inta Arre BNT Etc. I The Business Roundtable Chairman 1615 L Street, N.W. Donald V. Fites Suite 1100 Caterpillar Washington, D.C. 20036-5610 Tel (202) 872-1260 Cochairmen Fax (202) 466-3509 Ralph S. Larsen Johnson & Johnson Samuel L. Maury President Walter V. Shipley Chase Manhattan June 11, 1997 Patricia Hanahan Engman Executive Director John F. Smith Jr. General Motors The Honorable Thomas F. McLarty Senior Counselor to the President and Aider Special Envoy to the Americas The White House Washington, DC 20500 701 und Dear Mr. McLarty: 134 The Business Roundtable in May launched a congressional site visit program to inform lawmakers of the importance of trade to their local business and to build support for fast track, China MFN and other major 1997 trade measures. Attached is a "Congressional Tool Kit" which was sent to all members of The Business Roundtable in April to support the trade site visit program. We are now following up with phone calls to individual companies to track the activity and to ensure that participation in this program is at a high level throughout the summer months. We thought you would like to know about this initiative. If you have any questions about our trade education project, feel free to contact me at (216) 291-7108, or my Washington Representative, Jim Christy at (703) 276-5030. Sincerely, -) Joseph T. Gorman Chairman & CEO TRW Inc. Chairman, The Business Roundtable International Trade and Investment Task Force DLC Trade Project 11. memorial Leade shipt Council file Steve Romal Steve Look this over Return to pt. Thank mod, DLC Democratic Leadership Council PHOTOCOPY PRESERVATION PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE DLC PPi Democratic Leadership Council PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE PHOTOCOPY 518 C Street, NE PRESERVATION Washington, DC 20002-5810 E-mail [email protected] WWW.http://www.dlcppi.org/ Phone (202) 546-0007 Fax (202) 544-5002 DLC DLC ratio Leadership Council Emily Fleschner 518 C Street, NE Democratic Leadership Council Senior Development Associate Washington, DC 20002 202-608-1217 FAX: 202-544-5002 E-Mail: [email protected] WWW: http://www.dlcppi.org/ The Democratic Leadership Council on Trade The Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) believes that open and free trade is essential to creating opportunity for ordinary Americans, and has been a strong and consistent proponent of trade expansion since our founding in 1985. In our view, the path of international engagement chosen by Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry S. Truman and John F. Kennedy, updated to new conditions, charts the best course for America. We are committed to fighting both for new trade agreements and, at the same time, ensuring that every American has the tools to take advantage of the opportunities that come with U.S. leadership in the global economy. The DLC was a prominent advocate for granting "fast track" trade negotiating authority in 1988 and 1991, for passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993, and argued for the passage of the Uruguay round of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) in 1994. The DLC generally has advocated granting "most favored nation" status to China, the same tariff treatment we accord our other trading partners. The DLC's renewed emphasis on trade is in keeping with the challenge issued by its former chairman, President Bill Clinton, at the DLC's 1996 policy forum: American trade is at an all time high, with over 200 new trade agreements in the last four years alone: 21 with Japan where our exports in those 21 areas have gone up 85 percent in four years; GATT, NAFTA, and many others. Our work now is no less important than the work that was done by the generation after World War II. We must create the structures of peace and security and the partnerships for peace and security and prosperity that will permit the American people to make the most of the 21st century. Again, let me say the DLC can play an important role here Sometimes one of our most frustrating efforts as Democrats has been to convince our fellow Democrats that trade, if it's free and fair, is good for all the American people and essential for America's future. Another frustration we have had is trying to get the public at large, that has shown so much interest and so much sophistication in economic and social issues, to understand the connections between our foreign and our domestic policies, our security policies and our economic policies. 518 C Street, NE Washington, DC 20002 202-546-0007 Fax: 202-544-5002 E-mail: [email protected] WWW: http://www.dlcppi.org/ There areno more simple dividing lines between foreign and domestic in the world we're living in. We need your help to continue to raise public awareness of these fundamental facts, so that when decisions have to be taken in the area of foreign affairs they will resonate at home in the way that so many of the DLC ideas have resonated with the American people in domestic policy. And I hope you will pay some attention to that in the next year. The DLC and its affiliated think tank, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), are a unique force for advancing a new agenda on trade, an idea center and an action arm. The Progressive Policy Institute's project on Trade in the New Economy is articulating a new agenda to address both the economic and social aspects of trade policy through research, forums, background papers and dialogue with leading thinkers in the field. The DLC works to build a broader base of public support for open trading policies through its training academy and other briefings for political leaders, and through its publications, including The New Democrat magazine, the DLC Update weekly fax and the DLC's web site. In addition to these ongoing activities, the DLC Trade Project will: Research public opinion on trade expansion Organize elected officials and community leaders in key states to speak out on behalf of expanded trade Organize Congressional staff briefings on key trade issues Reach out to news reporters and editorial writers Conduct a public relations campaign, including advertising, specifically in support of fast track authority FOR RELEASE MONDAY, APRIL 28, 1997 CONTACT: John Deeken PHONE: 202/546-0007 DLC ANNOUNCES NEW TRADE PROJECT, NAMES DIRECTOR WASHINGTON, D.C. The Democratic Leadership Council will work aggressively in Washington and around the country to promote a new open trade policy, including giving President Clinton fast track negotiating authority, DLC President Al From announced today. From also named Edith R. Wilson as Director of the DLC trade project. "In the tradition of Wilson, FDR, Truman, and Kennedy, the DLC has always believed that expanding trade is essential to creating opportunity for ordinary Americans to get ahead, said From. "We are committed to fighting both for new trade agreements and for ensuring that every American has the tools to take advantage of the opportunities that will come with our continued leadership in the global economy. The DLC was a prominent advocate for passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993 and the Uruguay round of GATT in 1994. Wilson, who has 25 years of experience in trade and international affairs in the public and private sectors, will also be a Senior Fellow in the DLC's think tank, the Progressive Policy Institute, and lead the PPI's Project for Trade in the New Economy. PPI's trade project envisions a "third way" alternative to both contemporary neo-protectionism and orthodox laissez faire by articulating a new agenda of the economic policies to promote open trade in the new global economy. That includes the need for public policy to ensure that all Americans have the tools they need to succeed in the increasingly competitive international economy. Wilson served as Eastern Pennsylvania Director for Clinton/Gore '96 and Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator Carol Moseley-Braun during the 104th Congress. Previously, she was Senior Vice President for International Affairs at Burson Marsteller, where she worked since 1983. She founded the Food Action Center in 1975, a non-profit outreach and training center focusing on world hunger and development issues. She holds a Masters in Public Administration degree from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and a bachelor's degree from Bryn Mawr College. The DLC's renewed emphasis on trade is in keeping with the challenge issued by its former chairman, President Bill Clinton, at the DLC's 1996 policy forum last December. "Let me say the DLC can play an important role here, the President said. "Sometimes one of our most frustrating efforts as Democrats has been to convince our fellow Democrats that trade, if it's free and fair, is good for all the American people and it's essential for America's future. ( ) There are no more simple dividing lines between foreign and domestic in the world we're living in. We need your help to continue to raise public awareness of these fundamental facts, so that when decisions have to be taken in the area of foreign affairs they will resonate at home in the way that so many of the DLC ideas have resonated with the American people in domestic policy. And I hope you will pay some attention to that in the next year." 518 C Street, NE Washington, DC 20002 202-546-0007 Fax: 202-544-5002 E-mail: [email protected] WWW: http://www.dleppi.org/ DLC Democratic Leadership Council Edith R. Wilson Edie Wilson is the Director of the DLC Trade Project, and as Senior Fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, runs the Trade in the New Economy Project. She brings over twenty years of experience in international affairs, policy analysis, management, politics and management for government, business and non-profit organizations. She holds a master's in public adminstration from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a bachelor's degree in history from Bryn Mawr College. Edie served as chief of staff to U.S. Senator Carol Moseley-Braun of Illinois during the 104th Congress, supervising a staff of 50 and a broad range of legislative and political issues. She was Eastern Pennsylvania Political Director for Clinton/Gore '96. Previously, Edie was Senior Vice President for International Affairs at Burson-Marsteller, where she worked from 1983 to 1994. She is a veteran of the 1991 campaign for "fast track" trade negotiating authority and the 1993 NAFTA campaign, and worked closely with environmental, business and consumer groups. In 1975, Edie founded the Food Action Center in Washington, D.C., a non-profit outreach and training center focusing on world food and development issues. In that role and later as senior associate at New Transcentury Foundation, she worked extensively with non-governmental organizations working abroad and with international aid agencies. She was part of a Transcentury women-in- development project team for the Government of Morocco. From 1981 - 83, she was director of communications for CARE, the international relief and development group, where she launched a program to educate Americans about conditions in developing countries. She was trained as a community organizer at the Midwest Academy in Chicago in 1979. Ms. Wilson has been a board member of the Kennedy School of Government D.C. Alumni Council, of the United Nations Association-U.S.A., the U.S. Committee for UNICEF, the Overseas Education Fund and the Hunger Policy Coordinating Council of the National Council of Churches, among others. She served on the National Policy Panel on Human Rights and U.S. Foreign Policy of the United Nations Association from 1978-80. In 1979 she was one of 18 American leaders to participate in a Transnational Dialogue on Food and Development in India and Sri Lanka sponsored by the Overseas Development Council and the Charles F. Kettering Foundation. Edie grew up in White Plains, N.Y., and has lived in Ethiopia, Morocco, England, France, and Costa Rica. She speaks French and some Spanish. 518 C Street. NE Washington. DC 20002 202-546-0007 Fax: 202-544-5002 E-mail: [email protected] WWW: http://www.dleppi.org/ POLITICAL MEMO THE BATTLE AHEAD This Is Not the Time for New Democrats To Rest on their Laurels BY AL FROM ast month's highly publicized ers struggling to reconcile postwar No matter how you massage the and successful Presidents' social welfare promises with the polls, I cannot accept that Democrats Summit on America's Future is economic realities of the 1990s. can build a political majority on a just the latest example of the New Given those examples of the suc- foundation of big federal deficits, Democrats' impact on national poli- cess of the New Democrat formula, empty promises to seniors, trade tics. If we hadn't thrust voluntary you might think that the internal protection, and restoration of the national service onto the political battles waged within the Demo- failed welfare state. front burner several years ago, the cratic Party since the late 1960s The forces that brought us crush- event probably would not have oc- would be history, and that the party ing defeats in the presidential elec- curred. would be firmly set on a New tions of 1980, 1984, and 1988 are There is plenty of other evidence Democrat course. You might think re-arming for battle. We can expect of our impact as well, not the least of that, but you would be wrong. intra-party lines to be drawn sharply which was President Clinton's elec- on the issues described above and tion and re-election on New Demo- on many others. 1997 is no time for crat themes. Then there's the current The future of our move- New Democrats to sit back and drive for a balanced budget (a com- savor our advances. We must re- promise seemed imminent as we ment and the legacy of double our efforts, for this year's went to press); last year's passage of fights may well determine whether welfare reform, the expansion of the first New Democrat or not our country begins the 21st community policing and the birth of century on its soundest fiscal basis President are at stake. the police corps; the approval of in three decades; determined to trade agreements like NAFTA and make its major entitlement pro- the GATT; and the Ford Founda- grams secure for generations ahead; tion's decision last month to spend Many Democrats-including committed to trade expansion and a $15 million in support of individual most party leaders in the House- lead role in the global economy; and development accounts. believe the way to retake Congress ready to tackle its most intransigent All these ideas and many others is to build a majority around non- social problems with energy and bear the New Democrat imprint, college graduates at the lower end innovation. and President Clinton has advanced of the economic spectrum. And the The coming fights will determine each one. Indeed, they are the defin- way to do that, they believe, is to op- whether the Democratic Party is ing ideas of his presidency-and can pose an agreement to balance the ready to lead America forward with be the cornerstones of his legacy. federal budget and revise the vision and innovation, or whether The success of New Democrat Consumer Price Index; to oppose its most recalcitrant forces will re- ideas hasn't stopped at the water's the reform of Social Security and the verse our progress to build a new edge. In Britain, Tony Blair's New health care entitlements; to oppose political and governing majority. Labour movement rode to power giving the President authority to These are fights New Democrats last month on themes virtually iden- enter into new trade agreements; have to win. The future of our move- tical to those of the New Democrats. and to oppose doing what's neces- ment and the legacy of the first New And at a conference I attended re- sary to complete the job of convert- Democrat President are at stake. cently in Berlin, it was difficult not ing welfare into a work system. to notice the influence of New They're wrong in both their politi- Al From is president of the Democratic Democrat ideas on European lead- cal analysis and in their substance. Leadership Council. 36 MAY/JUNE 1997 To Fax or to E-Mail, that is the question. If you are currently The DLC Update receiving this DLC Update via fax but would prefer to have it e-mailed to you, please notify us at: Email:[email protected] The Democratic Leadership Tuesday, May 13, 1997 Two Steps Forward, No Turning Back On the brink of its first legislative test in the U.S. Senate, It was a nice coincidence that the President embarked on the budget agreement struck by President Clinton with the a trip to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean congressional leadership on May 2 looks more and more immediately after concluding the budget agreement. It like a defining moment for the Democratic Party. Despite helped underscore the point that balancing the federal mutinous rumblings on the left, it appears that public budget is but one element in an overall economic policy support for a balanced budget will keep traditional liberals aimed at success in a global Information Age. And although from declaring war on the agreement. If so, many congres- drug and immigration issues dominated the news from the sional Democrats could go into the 1998 elections virtually President's trip, much of the private discussions revolved invulnerable to the "tax and spend" label that has served as around Latin American demands that the United States the most powerful Republican weapon for a generation. As resume its leadership in hemispheric commerce. To do pollster Mark Penn has found, support for a balanced that, the President's fast-track authority to conduct trade budget agreement has a huge impact on the willingness of negotiations needs to be renewed. voters to keep incumbent Democrats in office. Since the beginning of the 105th Congress, Fiscal discipline is a very important theme of the New Dem- Administration officials have said that a drive to secure fast- ocrat economic message, but the performance of the economy track, which expired in 1994, was the President's second under this New Democrat President is the heart of the story. most important legislative priority after the budget agreement. But now that achievement of the first priority is You do not have to believe the business cycle has been in sight, some cautious souls in the Administration are conquered to accept that the U.S. economy is now reportedly arguing for continued delay in pushing fast-track, performing in a manner reminiscent of the 1960s, with low on grounds that fences must be mended with the inflation, low unemployment, and low interest rates, along Democratic left and organized labor before raising another with steady if unspectacular growth. The "stagflation" of the issue on which they disagree with the President. One step 1970s, and the boom-and-bust swings of the 1980s, are forward, goes the argument, and then a half-step back. rapidly receding into unhappy memory. Today's economy seems to have achieved a plateau that makes efforts to We cordially disagree. The President has beaten Old increase growth and raise incomes entirely feasible. Democrats into sullen passivity on the budget agreement, and he'll have to beat them again on fast-track. There is no From a political point of view, identifying the Democratic power on earth that will make them happy about it, and Party with broad economic growth through the private therefore nothing to gain from holding back. More to the sector has always been a key element of the New Democrat point, fast-track is central to the economic success story strategy, critical to our efforts to reach out to middle-class that increasingly makes the retrograde message of class Americans leery of government income redistribution warfare and government redistribution obsolete. Why schemes. placate paleoliberals who are not-so-secretly praying for a That is why the Administration-which has done so much recession by adopting a tactic that could help make their to change the economic message of the Democratic dreams come true? Party-should quickly follow up on its landmark budget All New Democrats should let the President, and agreement by advancing a broad agenda of growth and congressional Democrats as well, know that the defining upward mobility. And while that agenda should include new moment of the budget agreement should lead to a defining investments in education, a strong commitment to worker moment on trade policy. While the President has the training and retraining, a real employment system for momentum, he should take two steps forward, and then, former welfare recipients, and family tax relief, it must begin with an election year just ahead, all Democrats will with a robust new commitment to American economic understand there is no turning back. leadership through trade. A National Conversation elected officials and policy experts-the event will kick off a more sustained, interactive dialogue with our growing network In our continued effort to expand our national network of New from around the country. Key issues such as education, Democrat leaders, we will be hosting a special roundtable entitlement reform, trade, and economic opportunity will be discussion in Washington, DC on July 17th and 18th. discussed. For more information about the event, please call Featuring DLC/PPI principals as well as New Democrat rising the DLC Development Department at 202-546-0007. stars from around the country-including business leaders, This Fax is broadcast to thousands of public officials, citizen activists, and supporters in the DLC network nationwide. c/o The DLC Update, Democratic Leadership Council, 518 C Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 P: 800/546-0027 (202/544-6172 in DC) F:202/546-0628 E-MAIL:[email protected] WWW: http://www.dlcppi.org/ To Fax or to E-Mail, that is the question If you are currently The DLC Update receiving this DLC Update via fax but would prefer to have it e-mailed to you, please notify us at: Email:[email protected] The Democratic Leadership Tuesday, May 20,1997 China MFN: Toward a Tough but Smart Policy Monday, President Clinton announced the renewal of even though they face U.S. economic sanctions. China's "Most Favored Nation" trade status for another year. It will be extended unless Congress If we want to trade with China-one of the fastest enacts a joint resolution of disapproval by Aug. 31. growing economies in the world, and already the source of 170,000 export-related U.S. jobs-then we The President's announcement will also launch an need MFN. If we want an updated China policy that ugly, contentious debate in Congress and the news encourages progress in that country toward economic media about our overall relationship with China, and and political freedom, and compliance with the about China's overall performance on issues ranging international standards of conduct, then let's have from human rights to Hong Kong to Tibet, with MFN that debate on a separate track that fully explores all held hostage. That's a shame. MFN is the wrong our interests-strategic, economic, and ideological. instrument for pressuring China, and the wrong subject for a general review of U.S.-China policy. We can "get tough" with China without endangering our own interests or abandoning a basic MFN is really a misnomer. It is not foreign aid, and posture of engagement that has taken decades to does not extend any special privilege or favor to develop. A tough but smart policy would begin by China. It is the normal tariff status we extend to all but treating the MFN extension as the routine chore it a small handful of countries with which we trade. Iran, actually is, and would proceed to a thorough review of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Burma all receive MFN status U.S.-China relations. Time for a Real Debate on U.S Defense Strategy The Department of Defense Monday released its first nearly a decade ago." Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), presenting the Fortunately, says Blaker, Congress last year anticipated Pentagon's view of the strategic underpinnings of U.S. defense programs and budgets until the year 2005. Trying a "stand pat" QDR, and adopted PPI's proposal to establish a national defense panel that is required not only to review to stay "ahead of the curve" on defense policy, we are and assess the QDR, but to provide an alternative view, pleased to announce publication of a Backgrounder on the thus stimulating a real public debate over long-range Quadrennial Review by PPI Fellow James Blaker, The defense policy. In fact, as Blaker explains, one alternative QDR: An Assessment. view-to accelerate rather than to avoid the technology- Blaker is a member of PPI's Defense Working Group, based "revolution in military affairs"-has been articulated and author of The Revolution in Military Affairs, a February within the Pentagon by Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman 1997 PPI Policy Report. In the new Backgrounder, Blaker General Shalikashvili. describes the QDR as a predictable Pentagon effort to The QDR: An Assessment is essential reading for "save as much of the past era's military as a flat budget will anyone interested in the future of defense policy, and its allow," without engaging in "the serious, in-depth discussion implications for U.S. security and the federal budget. It is demanded by the fact that we continue to hang onto a available by calling (202) 546-0007 or by visiting the military designed twenty years ago for an era that ended DLC-PPI web page at http://www.dlcppi.org/. The New Democrat Takes a Closer Look at Campaign Finance Reform The May/June issue of The New Democrat features a bipartisan consensus for any particular solution. symposium on the complex problem of campaign finance reform. Nine contributors-including Sen. Bob Kerrey (D- This issue of The New Democrat also includes an article NE), former Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NJ), and Rep. Marty and editorial calling for new pollution control strategies as Meehan (D-MA)-present distinct perspectives on the part of a reconsideration of the Clean Air Act; a report on issue, and on the legal and partisan obstacles to reform. "community prosecution" by Harvard's Catherine Coles; a This "closer look" symposium provides an excellent front-line update on Wisconsin's welfare reform experiment summary of fresh thinking on campaign finance reform; and by state Rep. Antonio Riley; and an analysis of organized together, the articles show why it is SO hard to get a labor's plans for "wired workers" by former United Mine Workers official Jim Grossfeld. This Fax is broadcast to thousands of public officials, citizen activists, and supporters in the DLC network nationwide. c/o The DLC Update, Democratic Leadership Council, 518 C Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 P: 800/546-0027 (202/544-6172 in DC) F:202/546-0628 E-MAIL:[email protected] WWW: http://www.dlcppi.org/ The DLC Update Visit the DLC-PPI Web site for more information on foreign policy and trade: http://www.dlcppi.org/. The Democratic Council- Wednesday, May 28, 1997 DLC Joins Fight For MFN, "Tough But Smart" China Policy In an event televised live on C-SPAN, the Democratic our party's tradition of supporting free and fair trade, and are Leadership Council and its think tank, the Progressive again calling for protectionist measures If the protectionist Policy Institute, weighed into the fight over trade relations faction within the Democratic Party is successful, they could with China on May 27, calling for the renewal of most change the mix of policies that has brought about one of the favored nation status for China as well as a new "tough but longest, most sustained periods of non-inflationary smart" China policy. economic growth in American history. And that likely would reduce, not enhance, the opportunities to get ahead for hard The event featured DLC Chairman Sen. Joe working Americans to whom the Democratic Party must Lieberman of Connecticut; Rep. Robert Matsui of give voice." California, the ranking Democrat on the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee; DLC President AI From; and PPI In a similar vein, Lieberman called it "an article of New Senior Fellow Robert Manning, the author of a new PPI Democratic faith that economic growth and new job creation Report, Reality Check: From the MFN Debate to a Tough, will not happen without free and vigorous trade throughout but Smart China Policy. The event follows President the world." Clinton's announcement last week that he would renew China's MFN status, which sets the stage for congressional Just as important, Lieberman said, are the political action this summer. stakes. "Politically, this debate is really about the future of the Democratic Party, about the unfinished revolution we As Sen. Lieberman noted in his opening statement, the began in 1985 to break the Party from old ideas and ways timing of the news conference-held immediately after that were not working for America's working families, and House Minority Leader Rep. Richard Gephardt's were not electing Democratic candidates to political office. announcement that he will oppose MFN for China-was not It is about having the guts to disagree with special interest coincidental. DLC President AI From has called the groups so that we can serve the national interest. And it is pending votes in Congress on MFN renewal and fast-track about standing boldly for growth and jobs, not defensively trade negotiating authority for the President "defining for tariffs and protectionism." issues" for the Democratic Party, and crucial for New Democrats. The DLC has launched a new trade advocacy The new PPI report offers alternatives to MFN as the project, while PPI has initiated a Project on Trade in the focal point for China relations. "The singular challenge is to New Economy. find a bipartisan consensus on what priorities to emphasize, "We are here to call on our fellow Democrats in both what instruments provide real leverage, and what benchmarks to apply in measuring progress-or the lack of chambers to vote for MFN, not because it is good for China, but because it is good for America; and not because it is it-in China's behavior," Manning writes in the paper. good for American business, but because it is good for America's workers and consumers," Lieberman said. Annual two-way trade with China has grown eightfold in the last decade, from less than $8 billion in 1986 to $63 Matsui predicted that more than a majority of the House, billion in 1996; there is more than $10 billion in cumulative generally considered to be more protectionist-leaning for U.S. direct investment in China; and nearly 200,000 U.S. both parties, would ultimately support MFN for China by jobs depend on China trade. Given this growing voting down a resolution of disapproval. The problem with relationship, Manning states that it "is not credible to ending MFN status to China, Matsui said, is that it won't annually threaten MFN withdrawal: it is one bullet, one time, accomplish the policy objectives opponents seek. "If in fact certain to result in mutual assured destruction." we could actually advance the cause of human rights by eliminating most favored nation status, I would agree with Instead, he suggests a "tough, smart policy" tailored to that," he said. "But the fact of the matter is it will do no good advance America's economic, security, and human rights at all. It will merely put China on a course that could result interests in addressing China's domestic and foreign in a Cold War over the next decade and a half." policies. The PPI report is available from the Publications Desk at 202- 546-0007, or 1-800-546-0027 outside the D.C. DLC President From called expanding trade "one of the calling area. It can also be downloaded from the DLC/PPI comerstones of President Clinton's successful economic website: http://www.dlcppi.org/texts/foreign/mfn0597.htm. policy." Even so, he warned that "some Democrats oppose This Fax is broadcast to thousands of public officials, citizen activists, and supporters in the DLC network nationwide. c/o The DLC Update, Democratic Leadership Council, 518 C Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 P: 800/546-0027 (202/544-6172 in DC) F:202/546-0628 E-MAIL:[email protected] WWW: http://www.dlcppi.org/ The DLC Briefing A New Democrat Perspective on the Issues from the Democratic Leadership Council May 22, 1997 The DLC Briefing is a new service providing a concise New Democrat perspective on national issues that are of immediate interest to policymakers. Please contact 202-546-0007 with comments or suggestions. Renewing China MFN What's Happening President Clinton this week announced his decision to renew China's most-favored nation (MFN) trade status for another year-the same decision that has been reached every year since 1980 by Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush, and Clinton. Despite its name, MFN is the normal trading status granted to all but a small handful of nations. The annual renewal process flows from a 1970s law aimed at pressuring the Soviet Union to allow greater Jewish emigration. That law bans MFN status for non-market economies unless the President each year waives the ban by June 3. The ban can be reinstated and MFN denied if Congress passes a joint resolution of disapproval by August 31. Since such a resolution can be vetoed, opponents of MFN would need a two-thirds vote in both chambers to prevail. Clearly, denial of MFN would represent an abrupt termination of the bipartisan U.S. policy toward China that first emerged in the 1970s. U.S.-China trade was valued at $63 billion in 1996, and at least 170,000 U.S. jobs depend on exports to China. American companies have $10 billion in cumulative direct investment in China. New Democrat Principles "Democratic realism" in foreign policy means that the United States should view its most important relationships in the world through a careful balancing of all our interests-economic, strategic, and ideological-instead of acting narrowly and precipitously in reaction to ongoing events that displease us. Given China's size, strategic importance, and potential economic and political power, the United States should seek a "new bargain" with China whereby we support modernization of its economy while drawing it into international institutions and rules of conduct. The Politics This year's MFN debate occurs in a hothouse climate fueled by allegations of Chinese influence-buying in the 1996 election campaign, apprehension about the July reversion of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty, and an array of single issue concerns from religious persecution to arms exports, galvanizing a new left-right, anti-China coalition against MFN. Especially hostile to MFN are: (1) labor-oriented "populists" on the left, led by House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, who not only attack China on human rights grounds but claim that our trading relationship with China undermines American workers; (2) old-fashioned "cold warriors" on the right who view China as the new The DLC Briefing, Democratic Leadership Council, 518 C Street, NE, Washington, DC 20002 P: 800-546-0027 (in DC: 202- 546-0007), F: 202-546-0628, E-mail: [email protected], WWW: http://www.dlcppi.org "evil empire;" (3) a small but very active group (including the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and the conservative evangelical Family Research Council) that wants to protest China's mistreatment of Christians; and, (4) an array of Republican partisans who are using the issue to highlight the "China angle" in fundraising allegations against the President and the Democratic National Committee. The New Democrat Take There should be a vigorous national debate over China and the meaning of its emergence as a major economic and military power. The singular challenge is to find a bipartisan consensus on what priorities to emphasize, what instruments provide real leverage, and what benchmarks to insist on in regard to China's behavior. But MFN is the wrong arena for this debate. MFN is not foreign aid. It is not a favor to, or special privilege for, China. Nearly a hundred countries receive special trade status from the United States through agreements such as NAFTA or the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). MFN is merely normal tariff status, extended even to countries like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Burma that face United States economic sanctions. No other country puts conditions on MFN status for China, nor would any country follow the U.S. in removing MFN for China. Terminating China's MFN status would dramatically affect all bilateral trade, eliminate some of it, substantially raise prices for U.S. consumers, and trigger a downward spiral of confrontation in U.S.- China relations. It would also undercut the growth of the private sector in China which has reduced the domain of the state and expanded individual freedom. Moreover, it would also cause serious damage to the Hong Kong and Taiwan economies, which are deeply integrated into China's import and export sectors. This explains why Hong Kong Governor Chris Patten and Martin Lee (leader of Hong Kong's democratic opposition) have strongly supported MFN for China. Moreover, the China Service Coordinating Office, an organization of Evangelical Christian missionary groups, argues that denying MFN would put its missionary work inside China at risk. Talking Points As President Clinton pointed out, every President since 1980 has annually renewed MFN. MFN is a misnomer. It is only normal trade status-not a favor, not a privilege, not foreign aid. Removing MFN is too blunt an instrument to be an effective tool to change Chinese behavior. An effective, alternative way to achieve demonstrable results with China would be to shift the focus from MFN to China's accession to the World Trade Organization, which will shape China's economy and its commercial relationship with the world for the next generation. Using a benefit that China wants but does not currently have, instead of one it currently has that would be withdrawn, would give us greater leverage at a much lower risk to U.S. interests. NEWS NEWS NEWS NEWS NEWS NEWS NEWS NEWS PPi PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: John Deeken Tuesday, May 27, 1997 (202) 547-0001 PPI REPORT CHARTS NEW 'TOUGH, SMART' CHINA POLICY As Congress gears up to debate President Clinton's decision to renew most favored nation (MFN) trading status to China, the Progressive Policy Institute today released a policy paper supporting MFN renewal and calling for a new, "tough but smart" China policy. "The singular challenge is to find a bipartisan consensus on what priorities to emphasize, what instruments provide real leverage, and what benchmarks to apply in measuring progress-or the lack of it-in China's behavior," wrote PPI Senior Fellow and China expert, Robert A Manning, in the new PPI report, entitled "Reality Check: From the MFN Debate to a Tough, but Smart China Policy." "MFN is simply the wrong arena for the China debate. MFN is not foreign aid. It is not a favor to, or special privilege for, China. MFN is merely normal tariff status extended to all but a handful of countries with which we trade (Cuba, North Korea, Afghanistan, Laos, and Vietnam). Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Burma all receive MFN treatment even as they face U.S. economic sanctions. It is simply the basis upon which international trade is conducted." Noting that U.S. annual two-way trade with China has grown eightfold in the last decade, from less than $8 billion in 1986 to $63 billion in 1996, that there is more than $10 billion in cumulative U.S. direct investment in China, and nearly 200,000 U.S. jobs depend on China trade, Manning states "It is not credible to annually threaten MFN withdrawal: it is one bullet, one time, certain to result in mutual assured destruction." "The challenge to U.S. policy is to define our priorities and benchmark China's conduct vis-a-vis American interests. We must face the reality that we can not have it all at once. We must pick our issues and husband our leverage wisely, building coalitions when possible. It must be led by the President, and a major policy review would be a useful place to start. The Executive branch would be well advised to find ways to improve its consultation with Congress. "Americans do have a long list of legitimate concerns about China's domestic and foreign policies which fall into three broad baskets-economic, security, and human rights/values. A tough, smart policy should be tailored to address all three." On the economic front, Manning argues that the United States should shift the economic focus from MFN to a far more important long-term issue: China's accession to the WTO. "This will shape China's economy and its commercial relationship with the world for the next generation, set the tone for the accession of Russia and others, and affect the very credibility of the WTO. Congress should also demand that the Administration set up a process of regular consultation on the China-WTO negotiations. - more - 518 ( Street, NE Washington, DC 20002 202.547.0001 FAX 202.544.5014 INTERNET [email protected] On the strategic front, instead of the current "dialogue" the U.S. should pursue results- oriented strategic talks with China on the future of nuclear weapons, their export controls, and place a priority on curbing Chinese military and nuclear exports to Southwest Asia, principally, Iran and Pakistan. The Administration could "get tough" with China by: stepping up U.S. counter-intelligence against China, particularly against industrial spying and attempts to acquire technology under false pretense; tightening export controls and more closely monitoring end use of technology exports; demanding on-the-ground monitoring for compliance with trade agreements; and by pressing for more cooperation with U.S. anti-drug efforts in the heroin- producing Golden Triangle along the Thai- Burma-China borders. In developing a new policy to address U.S. concerns with China's human rights policies, Manning argues for a three-pronged approach designed to facilitate change from within rather than imposing it from the outside: In areas where internal trends are moving in positive directions-expansion of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), rule of law, local elections-the United States should cooperate with China in facilitating these trends. We could allow individual Americans to exercise their condemnation of repression in China by, as the Heritage Foundation has proposed, enacting "Know Your Trading Partner" legislation, which would identify all Chinese military- owned companies and products, allowing consumers to make a choice. Finally, U.S. human rights strategy must include quiet diplomacy, with our allies as well as Beijing, to identify realizable goals for human rights-for example, Beijing's recognition of the Pope and other moves towards more religious freedom, Red Cross visits to jails, and release of leading dissidents. There should be carefully targeted penalties, for example, cutting access to the International Development Agency (IDA) and other concessional lending for particular human rights abuses." Manning notes that the case of Hong Kong, which reverts to Chinese sovereignty on July 1, "is a difficult issue of special concern. We should benchmark three core issues: free and fair elections in 1998; integrity of the courts and the civil service; and financial and commercial autonomy. "We must begin to define a tough, but smart approach to China that achieves results in areas identified as top priority concerns. There is no silver bullet, no bumper sticker for a workable China policy that satisfies the many deeply felt concerns about China. The emergence of China is the biggest challenge facing the international economic and political system into the 21st century. It requires focused, sustained attention and leadership from the Executive Branch and a working partnership with Congress." ### DLCNEWS release Democratic Leadership Council 518 C Street. NE Washington. DC 20002 - 202-546-0007 FAX: 202-546-0628 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tuesday, May 27, 1997 STATEMENT OF AL FROM, DLC PRESIDENT ON RENEWING MFN TRADE STATUS TO CHINA "President Clinton's economic policies have helped yield terrific results for our country and for hard working Americans. More than 12 million net new jobs have been created in the past four and one-half years, unemployment is under five percent for the first time in a quarter century, inflation is running under three percent, and economic growth is the highest in nine years. On top of all that, today there is news that consumer confidence is at a 28-year high. American leadership in the global economy has been restored, and we have a firm foundation for prosperity well into the 21st century. "One of the cornerstones of President Clinton's spectacularly successful economic policy is expanding trade. However, some Democrats oppose our party's tradition of supporting free and fair trade, and are again calling for protectionist measures in the cases of renewing MFN and the President's fast-track authority. "If the protectionist faction within the Democratic Party is successful, they could change the mix of policies that has brought about one of the longest, most sustained periods of non- inflationary economic growth in American history. And that likely would reduce, not enhance, the opportunities to get ahead for hard working Americans to whom the Democratic Party must give voice. "So Democrats face a choice. Will we complete the transformation of our party in accordance with the New Democrat course President Clinton has laid out? Or will we reverse course and fall victim again to the old politics that left us in the political wilderness for much of the past quarter century? We don't have to wait until the year 2000. The outcomes of the battles this year over the budget and trade will likely determine the answers to those questions." ### The DLC Update Visit the DLC-PPI Web site for more information on recent DLC-PPI products: http://www.dlcppi.org/. he Democratic Leadership Council 1997 MATTERS OF PRINCIPLE There is an increasingly vigorous, and ultimately healthy, intact while making public investments, by slashing the debate going on within the Democratic Party about how, in defense budget, or soaking the rich with new taxes. New the words of House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, to Democrats think that's wishful-and thus "translate our values and beliefs in today's irresponsible-thinking, and plays into the Republican circumstances." strategy of starving public investments to death. Ours is a principled position. But there is one recurring false note in this debate that is insinuating itself into speeches by traditional liberals and Trade: On this issue, the claim that New Democrats are the op-ed columns of major newspapers: the assertion that not principled is simply laughable. Support for open Old Democrats are defending "principles," while President markets and hostility to protectionism is the oldest Clinton and New Democrats are motivated by purely principle of the Democratic Party, uniting Democrats from political considerations. the Jackson Era to the late twentieth century, even when the party was deeply divided on other issues. Every Sure this New Democrat stuff works politically, goes the twentieth-century Democratic President has promoted familiar rap. Sure welfare reform, and fiscal discipline, and freer international trade, and even the labor movement fighting crime, and cutting taxes are popular, but they was largely pro-trade until the late 1970s. represent a betrayal of Democratic principles. Open trade is a defining principle for Democrats for a There's only one problem with this argument. It ain't very simple reason: protectionism always has and forever true. will represent action by government to give a small handful of industries fearing competition special Consider three issues where the appeal to "principle" is privileges, at the direct expense of everyone else in the most often made to criticize New Democrats: country. Protectionism also inherently fosters political corruption, by inviting industries to bid for intervention to Welfare Reform: Democrats are supposed to fight for boost their profits. upward mobility for low-income Americans. That's why New Democrats are fighting to replace the old welfare Today, Old Democrats argue that trade agreements system with an employment system that lifts welfare undermine job stability and income levels for some recipients into the private-sector economy, by making workers. New Democrats respond from principle that it is work pay and by directly linking workers to job unfair and un-Democratic to elevate the interests of opportunities. industries threatened by international competition above the interests of workers in exporting industries, the Some traditional liberals oppose this approach because interests of consumers, the interests of communities that they do not believe the jobs are there. New Democrats benefit from foreign investment, and the interests of every say we must find out by trying, instead of joining American who benefits from the current conditions of Republicans in giving up on welfare recipients. Ours is a steady growth. principled position. Fighting for fast-track trade negotiating authority for the Entitlements: Democrats are supposed to be concerned President, and opposing efforts to cut off trade with China, about keeping the promise of a decent living in retirement represent fidelity to a principle embraced by the very for Americans. We're also supposed to worry about Democratic icons whose authority is so often cited by finding the fiscal means to make public investments that those opposing efforts to modernize the legacy of the New contribute to economic growth and give working Deal and the Great Society. Americans the tools they need to succeed in the economy of the future. That's why New Democrats think it's critical On welfare, entitlements, trade, and a host of other to modernize the Social Security and Medicare issues, there remain sharp and defining differences entitlements, because as currently constituted they will go between all Democrats and all Republicans, and bankrupt while squeezing public investments right out of legitimate differences among Democrats that we should the federal budget. continue to debate. Some traditional liberals oppose this approach because But New Democrats should never for a moment they think we can find the money to keep the entitlements concede that the political viability of our ideas somehow reduces their intellectual integrity or their moral power. This Fax is broadcast to thousands of public officials, citizen activists, and supporters in the DLC network nationwide. c/o The DLC Update, Democratic Leadership Council, 518 C Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 P: 800/546-0027 (202/544-6172 in DC) F:202/546-0628 E-MAIL:[email protected] WWW: http://www.dlcppi.org/ From: Bulletin Broadfaxing Network To: John Deeken Date: 5/27/97 Time: 12:43:30 PM Page 1 of 9 THE WHITE HOUSE BULLETIN BULLETIN BROADFAXING NETWORK, 6260 GREENSBORO DRIVE, SUITE 320, MCLEAN, VA 22102 FAX 703/749-0060 TEL 703/749-0040 MEMORANDUM FOR SUBSCRIBER SUBJECT: TODAY'S BRIEFING DATE: TUESDAY, MAY 27, 1997 Democrats To Highlight MFN Today. While House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt is expected to make a case today in Detroit against MFN for China, a group of moderate Democrats will be making a case in favor of MFN. In his speech today, Gephardt is expected to say, "The United States has no business playing "business-as-usual" with a Chinese tyranny that persecutes Muslim leaders and leaders from many other faiths, precludes tens of millions from practicing their religion, sells the most lethal weapons to the most dangerous of nations, profits off slave labor, and engages in the utter evil of forced abortion." An advance text of the speech also reveals a heavy emphasis on freedom and human rights. Gephardt is expected to say, "Finally, human rights is a vital national security interest. As we saw with the Soviets, the answer is not to shrink from the defense of our values, but to redouble it." Gephardt is expected to conclude, "We cannot appease China's leaders into honoring human rights. But we do have the power and potential incentives to seek and achieve change." Gephardt's speech is the second major recent break with the Administration on policy, and Gephardt's speech text makes pointed references to his 1988 appearance at the Detroit Economic Club - which happened to be the last time he ran for president. Asked about the text of the Gephardt speech, presidential spokesman Mike McCurry said this morning, "Well, we'll charitably disagree. The suspension of normal trade relations with China would be, in some sense, a declaration of economic war on China and would further isolate China from the world community. And it's long been our policy view that engagement with China is much more likely to produce the changes in behavior that the American people seek." Meanwhile, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, head of the Democratic Leadership Council, Rep. Bob Matsui, and DLC fellow Bob Manning are expected to contend this afternoon that MFN is "too narrow a debate," according to a DLC official, and that the proper focus of the debate ought to be China's accession to the World Trade Organization. According to a policy report prepared by the DLC's Manning, "terminating China's MFN would dramatically affect all bilateral trade, eliminate some of it, substantially raise prices for US consumers, and trigger a downward spiral of confrontation in US-China relations. It would also undercut the growth of the private sector in China which has reduced the domain of the state and expanded individual freedom. Moreover, it would also cause serious damage to the Hong Kong and Taiwan economies which are deeply integrated into China's import and export sectors." The paper also contends that revoking MFN would "worsen rather than ameliorate the problem of religious persecution" in China, citing a report by an organization of evangelical Christian missionary groups active in China. The paper supports the "proportionate, targeted sanctions" against Chinese efforts to provide military capability to Iran and Pakistan, contending that is a better approach to some of the serious national security concerns the US has with China. In addition, in arguing for making WTO membership the key ground for debate, Manning says, "This will shape China's economy and its commercial relationship with the world for the next generation, set the tone for the accession of Russia and others, and affect the very credibility of the WTO." The Clinton Administration, which is in favor of MFN, has been lobbying quietly for months in favor of Chinese accession to the WTO. While Democrats are split on the issue of MFN, SQ are Republicans. A House GOP leadership source said this morning that no whip count has been done on MFN approval in the House and one may not be done "because we don't know if that's going to be the leadership position." ROUTE TO: NATIONAL JOURNAL'S & ongress Pg 1 of 5 3:02 PM Tursday, May 27, 1997 TRADE Gephardt Will Oppose Extending China MFN Trade Status Flatly declaring that "our trade policy with China has failed," House Minority Leader Gephardt today said he will oppose renewal of most favored nation trade status for China because "wo cannot appease China's leaders into honoring human rights" In the prepared text of a speech to the Detroit Economic Club, Gephardt called on the United States to use its lucrative market for Chinese exports as a more potent tool in forcing the Beijing government toward consistent human rights and economic reforms. "It is not enough to issue mild condemnations of Chinese actions," Gephardt said "Actions speak louder than words and our administration's actions, as well as its words, have been far too weak when it comes to China" Gephardt, who also broke with the administration on the issue of renewing fast track trade negotiating authority, said access to the U.S. market "is a privilege, not a right," and China "has forfeited that privilege" with its record on human rights, arms sales to "outlaw" nations and trads practices. "It is time Fre revoke China's most favored nation status," he said. "China and every other country must know that unlimited access to the U.S. market comes with certain responsi- bilities. We must use MFN as a tool to effect change." Gephardt acknowledged that many in the business community will disagree with him. However, he said: "Trickle down did not work in economics and it will not work in human rights. Economic growth for the elite will not lead to basic human rights for billions" He added, "If we don't act, no one will" In response, White House Press Secretary Michael McCurry said the administration will "charitably disagree" with Gephardt's China MFN comments. Speaking from Paris, where he is traveling with the president, McCurry said, "The suspension of nonnal trade relations with China would be, in some sense, a declaration of economic war on China and would further isolate China from the world community." Separately, House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee ranking member Robert Matsui, D-Calif., and Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., held a news conference along with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council to say renewing MFN for China is in America's best interests. "Economic stability and growth, which renewing MFN will promote, helps fuel China's transformation toward a democratically oriented, free-market society," Lieberman said "If we interrupt trade with China, it will be many more long nights before that great and large country becomes what we would like it to be." REUTERS Tuesday May 27 7:27 PM EDT House Democratic Leader Wants China MFN Revoked DETROIT (Reuter) - House Democratic Leader Richard Gephardt Tuesday said President Clinton has been "far too weak" on China's human rights record and urged Congress to revoke Chinese trading privileges. "Our trade policy with China has failed," Gephardt said in a speech to the Economic Club of Detroit. "It has failed not only on moral grounds, but economically as well. There is nothing 'free' about our trade with China -- in fact it comes to us at great cost and little benefit." Gephardt, a Missouri Democrat, denounced human rights violations by China's "totalitarian" leaders and said they should be linked to a new U.S. policy of "firm engagement" with China that demands improvements in human and worker rights. He also noted that the U.S. trade deficit with China hit nearly $40 billion in 1996 and that it is likely to exceed $50 billion this year. Revocation of China's most favored nation (MFN) trading status with the United States would cause duties on imports from China to soar to the high levels of the 1930s. Only a handful of countries do not enjoy MFN status. Clinton announced May 19 that he would renew MFN for China this year, and opponents are expected to mount the fiercest congressional fight over the issue in years. The House last year voted 286-141 to renew the privileges. News of Gephardt's position drew a swift response from White House spokesman Mike McCurry, who said "we'll charitably disagree" with the 11-term congressman from St. Louis. Speaking in Paris, where Clinton signed a pact between NATO and Russia on European security, McCurry said, "The suspension of normal trade relations with China would be, in some sense, a declaration of economic war with China and would further isolate China from the world community." Two Democratic lawmakers, Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, and Rep. Bob Matsui of California, said they would support Clinton's renewal of MFN for China. "The U.S.-China relationship is probably the most important bilateral relationship the United States will have over the next 25 years," said Matsui, the senior Democrat on the Ways and Means Trade subcommittee. "It is my opinion that if we cut off MFN with China it would be the equivalent of cutting off diplomatic relations." But Gephardt stopped short of advocating a boycott of Chinese goods and said he would continue to encourage U.S. corporations to do business in China. "I think that means we can continue to trade but on a different basis," he said at a news conference prior to the speech. "In other words, they would not experience the same tariff basis as other nations." Gephardt, viewed as a leading contender to challenge Vice President Al Gore for his party's 2000 presidential nomination, also said China's trade policies, which include "blackmailing" companies into giving China technology and trade secrets, will turn it into an economic powerhouse. Gephardt said that he has made no decision to run for president and "won't for a long time." Continued oppression in China will keep Chinese wages at poverty levels, which in turn will put downward pressure on U.S. wages, Gephardt said. He said China should not be allowed to regain MFN status until it ends the sale of goods made by millions of people in forced labor camps and prisons. "If you give normal trading status to a country that has no human rights and no worker rights, you are ensuring that you're going to be competing with a country that has a very low standard of living and no hope that that standard of living will go up," he said. He acknowledged that U.S. companies would lose some business contracts with China if MFN were revoked, but he urged business leaders in Detroit to "look beyond the short term" to encourage democracy in China. N E W S R E T E A S E U.S. SENATOR JOE LIEBERMAN CONNECTICUT PRESS OFFICE: (202) 224-4041 or (202) 224-9965 (after 6 p.m.) Actuality Line: (202) 224-6095 Kathie Scarrah (703) 845-2874 (H) FOR RELEASE Home Page: http://www.senate.gov/-lieberman/ email: [email protected] May 27, 1997 Statement of Senator Joe Lieberman Endorsing MFN Status for China The timing of this news conference is not coincidental. It has been called to respond to Dick Gephardt's announcement today that he will oppose MFN for China. We are here to call on our fellow Democrats in both chambers to vote for MFN, not because it is good for China, but because it is good for America; and not because it is good for American business, but because it is good for America's workers and consumers. For us, Dick Gephardt's announcement and our response to it is about economics and it is about politics. Economically, we accept as an article of New Democratic faith that economic growth and new job creation will not happen without free and vigorous trade throughout the world. That faith has been vindicated by the millions of new jobs created during the last four- and-one-half years of the Clinton-Gore pro-trade Administration. Politically, this debate is really about the future of the Democratic Party, about the unfinished revolution we began in 1985 to break the Party from old ideas and ways that were not working for America's working families, and were not electing Democratic candidates to political office. It is about having the guts to disagree with special interest groups so that we can serve the national interest. And it is about standing boldly for growth and jobs, not defensively for tariffs and protectionism. We support renewing China's most favored nation status for another year. President Clinton's recommendation to do so is the right one. Trade with China is simply a fact, a -- More -- Lieberman MFN Statement 22222 desirable fact, of life. It means jobs and prosperity for workers in the U.S., and it means continued pressure for democratic reform in China. Numbers matter. Connecticut alone exported goods and services worth well more than $100 million last year to China, and thousands of jobs in the state are either directly or indirectly dependent on that trade. Overall in the United States, more than 200,000 jobs are directly related to trade with China. And those figures will grow. Between 1985 and 1995, our bilateral trade expanded by 643 percent. To reverse direction now by rejecting MFN and erecting barriers which would only facilitate other nations' business with China at our expense, is both unrealistic and unwise. The numbers do tell a compelling story about why we should continue to trade with China on the same terms we extend to almost every other nation on earth. But human rights violations, illicit weapons deals, restrictions against Hong Kong's democracy, and refusal to renounce the threat of force against Taiwan tell why China is, in fact, different than most other countries. Capitalism may have come to China, but Beijing's rulers still do not trust the agents of capitalism, the people themselves, to determine their own futures. We want to see China change. That is what the debate is really about in Congress. And here, again, the President's recommendation is the right one. China's economy is its main engine of reform. Economic stability and growth, which renewing MFN will promote, helps fuel China's transformation toward a more democratically oriented, free market society. That is in our own best interest and it reflects our fundamental values as a nation. We seek to expand freedom and the rule of law. A stable trade relationship with China helps to do this. It brings to individuals within China increased freedom of choice, better working conditions, respect for the rule of law in business transactions, and the expectation that individual effort and initiative matter. In other words, trade with American businesses that reflect American values brings with it respect for individual rights and dignity. More Lieberman MFN Statement 33333 China will not be transformed overnight. But if we interrupt trade, it will be many more long nights before China changes. I will support MFN renewal for China. That is the issue immediately at hand. But I also think it is time to move beyond the annual MFN debate to a more comprehensive expression of China policy, one that does not constantly find our moral values in conflict with our commercial interests. A good first step is normalizing our economic relationship by brining China into the World Trade Organization and thereby opening its markets more fully to American services and products. It means bringing our anger about China's human rights and proliferation policies to the center of our bilateral relationship and being willing to invoke sanctions when necessary, as we did last week. But it does not mean denying MFN, which amounts to shooting not just the Chinese, but ourselves in the foot, economically and politically. Perhaps within our lifetimes, and almost certainly in the lives of our children, China will become the premier Asian power. Whether that is a threat or a promise depends in large part on how we treat China today. Building a stable, normal, honest, and demanding relationship with China is an important step in that desired direction. -- 30 -- The Washington Times Anti-MFN WEDNESDAY, MAY 28, 1997 forces gain support of MFN Gephardt From page A1 ident Al Gore for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2000. He hits 'tyranny' "We aren't going to have to wait to the year 2000 for the fight of the with eye on 2000 soul of the Democratic Party," Mr. From said. "It's already begun." If the "protectionist faction By Nancy E. Roman within the Democratic Party" suc- THE WASHINGTON TIMES ceeds in revoking China's MFN' status, he said, it could derail the House Minority Leader Richard long-running economic growth A. Gephardt accused the Clinton that has boosted Mr. Clinton and administration yesterday of "traf- other Democrats. ficking in tyranny" for extending Mr. Gephardt's opposition to most-favored-nation trading status China's trade privileges is not a to China. surprise. He represents a pro- "It is not enough to issue mild labor district in south St. Louis and AP condemnations of Chinese ac- has long opposed MFN status. But tions," Mr. Gephardt told the Eco- House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt says the United States his strategy was noteworthy. nomic Club of Detroit. "Actions should not play "business as usual" while China attacks religion. Mr. Gephardt not only called at- speak louder than words - and tention to China's well-known hu- our administration's actions, as man rights abuses, but reached out few," but he predicted that Con- largest foreign market, with more well as its words, have been far too to conservative Republicans con- gress will vote to extend the trade than a third of Chinese exports weak when it comes to China." sidering MFN opposition because status. coming to the United States. China The Missouri Democrat's ex- of China's persecution of Chris- Most U.S. trading partners have buys about 2 percent of U.S. ex- pected opposition combines with tians and forced-abortion policy. permanent MFN status, which ex- ports. China recorded a $40 billion other forces to make this the "The United States has no busi- tends favorable tariffs and trade trade surplus with the United toughest MFN vote ever. Demo- ness playing 'business as usual' preferences to imports ranging States last year, and some project crats and Republicans say the with a Chinese tyranny that perse- from toys to electronics. But China that it will hit $50 billion this year. House could vote this summer to cutes Christian, Muslim leaders must get its status renewed every Mr. Clinton announced the re- revoke China's coveted trading sta- and leaders from many other year. newal of China's MFN status last tus. faiths, precludes tens of millions While the House may vote to re- week. Congress has 90 days to ap- Allegations that China tried to from practicing their religion, sells voke MFN status, it appears un- prove the decision, which is ex- buy influence by funneling money the most lethal weapons to the likely opponents will muster the pected to face a vote in July. to U.S. political campaigns have most dangerous of nations, profits votes needed to override a Clinton Last year 141 House members eroded support for MFN status off slave labor, and engages in the veto. voted against the MFN extension, primarily among Republicans. utter evil of forced abortion," Mr. Mr. Matsui said that using MFN citing China's violation of trade The Christian Coalition has Gephardt said. as a tool to punish China would iso- pacts, weapons proliferation, poor latched onto the issue to communi- Rep. Robert T. Matsui, Califor- late the United States from 21 per- human rights record, and anti- cate disapproval of China's perse- nia Democrat and ranking mem- cent of the world's population. democratic policies regarding Tai- cution of Christians. ber of the House Ways and Means "It's very important not to have wan, Hong Kong and Tibet. "It'll be a close vote, there's no trade subcommittee, said MFN another cold war," he said. Mr. Gephardt appealed to the question about that," said Al From, supporters will press the issue Many free-traders argue that to United States' sense of morality. the president of the Democratic when they get back Tuesday from revoke MFN status would threaten "What have we gained by traf- Leadership Conference, who the Memorial Day recess. He said a trade war with one of the most ficking with a tyranny that debases called a news conference yester- many Republicans will oppose it, economically potent nations. the dignity of one-fifth of the hu- day to respond to Mr. Gephardt. and Democrats "may have lost a The United States is China's man race?" he asked. 'Mr. Gephardt's speech was sig- nificant for its location and its con- tents. Detroit is a key stop for any presidential aspirant, and Michi- gan is a critical electoral state that delivered big for President Clinton last year. Mr. Gephardt is laying a foundation to challenge Vice Pres- see MFN, page A16 MORNING EDITION -- MAY 29, 1997 This is Morning Edition. I'm Bob Edward. The annual debate on whether to renew China's Most Favored Nation trade status is underway. President Clinton wants to renew China's MFN; there is a strong movement in Congress not to. This year the debate is more volatile than usual involving a wider range of interest groups. NPR's Ted Clark reports: President Clinton has some powerful allies in his effort to renew MFN. Perhaps the most powerful is American business, which hopes to expand trade with the most populous nation on earth. Willard Workman at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said his organization has already visited 22 cities and urged business leaders there to contact members of Congress. (Workman) "Let them know that Most Favored Nation status for China is important to their companies and to their workers." Workman says member of the American Chambers of Commerce in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong have all been in Washington in the last six weeks, (Workman) "and have met with over 200 members of Congress again explaining what is actually happening on the ground in China." President Clinton has other powerful allies in the MFN debate. Former Presidents and Secretaries of State stress the strategic importance of China. In his effort to renew MFN, President Clinton has the support of some key Republicans like House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and he also has the support of the centrist New Democrat movement within his own party. Al From of the Democratic Leadership Council. (From) "Heated rhetoric about China will not create opportunity for American workers. The kind of economic policy that President Clinton has put forth will do that." Support for extending MFN remains strong, but events have conspired this year to make MFN more controversial than in the past. For example, China regains control of Hong Kong on July 1, and has already begun to restrict political freedoms there. That has refocused attention on China's poor human rights record. And then there are the allegations that China may have planned to make illegal campaign contributions to President Clinton and several members of Congress. This controversy has had a significant impact on the MFN debate according to Congressman Robert Matsui, ranking Democrat on the Trade Subcommittee of Ways and Means. (Matsui) "Frankly we thought that we were going to have a rather quiet year on the continuation of Most Favored Nation status for China. That hit -- I think it turned it around and has made it much more difficult." Especially on the Republican side says Matsui, Allegations of illegal campaign contributions have added a taint of possible corruption in the MFN debate which makes some members leery of supporting MFN extension. Politics of a different sort have also helped to rile the MFN debate. House (sic.) Majority Leader Richard Gephardt is positioning himself for a possible run against Vice President Al Gore for the Democratic Presidential nomination in the year 2000. This week, Gephardt criticized the Clinton/Gore team for supporting China's MFN status. (Gephardt) "The United States has no business playing business as usual with a Chinese tyranny that precludes tens of millions from practicing their religion, sells the most lethal weapons to the most dangerous of nations, profits off slave labor, and engages in the utter evil of forced abortion." Allegations of religious persecution and forced abortion have made the Christian right a bigger player in this year's MFN debate, joining with liberal human rights groups in opposing MFN renewal. The Family Research Council is a conservative organization that has focused mostly on U.S. domestic issues in the past. This year, the Council's Robert Morrison say this group is also working against MFN for China. (Morrison) "Previous to this what we saw is that many, what we designate as pro-family Congressmen, were voting reflexively for MFN. That's not happening to such an extent any more. Religion, politics, the U.S. trade deficit with China, possible campaign scandals, Hong Kong -- all these make the MFN debate more emotional than usual this year. But China has always elicited passionate responses from Americans. According to Ezra Vogel, Director of the Fairbanks Center for East Asian research at Harvard. (Vogel) "China, because it's on the other side of the world, because it's a great civilization, because it has far more people than any other country in the world and because we know so little about it has always aroused extreme responses from Americans and from Europeans as well." Vogel says Americans vacillate between a fear of China and missionary impulse to help it. Some of that vacillation is at play in the MFN debate today. What most analysts predict is that when all the speeches are over on Capitol Hill that China's MFN status will be renewed. This is Ted Clark in Washington. PPi Policy Report May 27, 1997 PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE Reality Check: From the MFN Debate to a Tough, But Smart, China Policy Robert A. Manning President Clinton's decision to renew China's most-favored nation (MFN) trade status for another year launches the annual spring referendum on China, one which already shows signs of being more acrimonious than usual. The debate occurs in a hothouse climate fueled by allegations of Chinese influence-buying in the 1996 election campaign, apprehension about the July reversion of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty, and an array of single issue concerns from religious persecution to arms exports galvanizing a new left-right anti-China coalition against MFN. The MFN debate reflects a growing apprehension about China which has fueled national discord since the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen massacre, when the televised specter of Beijing's brutality and the end of the Cold War shattered the longstanding bipartisan consensus on China policy. MFN has been the chosen instrument to express disapproval of Beijing's domestic and international policies. As one prominent critic put it, "we should deny MFN status as a way of putting pressure on Chinese leaders to open their system.' 1 There should be a vigorous national debate over China and the meaning of its emergence as a major economic and military power. The singular challenge is to find a bipartisan consensus on what priorities to emphasize, what instruments provide real leverage, and what benchmarks to apply in measuring progress-or the lack of it-in China's behavior. This paper seeks to change the debate, suggesting a different way of addressing American economic, human rights, and security concerns about China. Even in the economic realm, for example, the MFN debate has diverted public attention from where it should be sharply focused: the terms of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), a crucial issue which will shape China's economic ties to the world into the next century, set precedents for the entry of Russia and other countries into the trade regime, and affect the very credibility of the WTO. MFN is simply the wrong arena for the China debate. MFN is not foreign aid. It is not a favor to, or special privilege for, China. Nearly one hundred countries do receive special trade status from the United States through agreements such as NAFTA or the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). MFN is merely normal tariff status extended to all but a handful of countries with which we trade (Cuba, North Korea, Afghanistan, Laos, and Vietnam). 2 Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Burma all receive MFN treatment even as they face U.S. economic sanctions. It is simply the basis upon which international trade is conducted. No other country conditions MFN for China, nor would any country follow the U.S. in removing MFN for China. 518 ( Street, NE Washington, DC 20002 202.547.0001 FAX 202.544.5014 INTERNET [email protected] 1 Some argue that MFN is animated by what one critic calls "the great China market myth," the idea "that everything from human rights violations to weapons sales is worth enduring because glorious riches await us in the People's Republic." 3 Since the days of the Clipper ship Empress of China two hundred years ago, the allure of the China market has led the West to overestimate its potential. Nonetheless, with the World Bank and other forecasters projecting China likely to emerge as one of the largest-if not the largest-economies in the world in the early decades of the 21st century, what U.S. company is prepared to have the United States write off the China market entirely? Since embarking on a course of market-oriented economic reform in 1979, China has increasingly sought to attract foreign investment and pursue an export-oriented economic growth strategy. China's dynamic economic growth during this period has led to a mushrooming of its trade with the United States. Over the past decade, U.S. annual two-way trade with China has grown eightfold, from less than $8 billion in 1986 to $63 billion in 1996. In addition, there is more than $10 billion in cumulative U.S. direct investment in China. Nearly 200,000 U.S. jobs depend on China trade. It is not credible to annually threaten MFN withdrawal: it is a one time bullet, certain to result in mutual assured destruction. Denying MFN Counterproductive Eight years after Tiananmen, the annual MFN process has become counterproductive as an instrument to advance American interests or values in regard to China. Under the Jackson-Vanik Amendment to the 1974 Trade Act, in order for non-market economies to receive MFN status, the President must determine that the country meets emigration criteria or waive the ban on MFN annually by June 3. Jackson-Vanik is an outmoded piece of Cold War legislation, originally intended to aid the emigration of Soviet Jews, by holding out MFN to Moscow (with whom the United States had little trade). But it is a convenient legislative vehicle for Congress to express post-Tiananmen outrage. As Senator Connie Mack (R-Fla) said recently, "The reason we annually consider China's trade, human rights and national security behavior during the MFN renewal debate is because we do not have an acceptable alternative." But terminating China's MFN would dramatically affect all bilateral trade, eliminate some of it, substantially raise prices for U.S. consumers, and trigger a downward spiral of confrontation in U.S.-China relations. It would also undercut the growth of the private sector in China which has reduced the domain of the state and expanded individual freedom. Moreover, it would also cause serious damage to the Hong Kong and Taiwan economies which are deeply integrated into China's import and export sectors. This explains why Hong Kong Governor Chris Patten and Martin Lee, leader of Hong Kong's opposition democrats, have strongly supported MFN for China. Moreover, denial of MFN could worsen rather than ameliorate the problem of religious persecution, which has come more sharply into focus of late. The China Service Coordinating Office (CSCO), an organization of Evangelical Christian missionary groups -2- active on the ground in China, argues that denying MFN would put their missionary work at risk. Contrary to the views of some conservative religious activists, CSCO argues: Public shaming of the Chinese government and economic sanctions backed by American Christians will only serve to strengthen the official Chinese perception that Christians are a threat to China's political and social stability and to heighten mistrust of Christians by the Chinese public. This will likely result in greater persecution of Christians inside China and will close doors of opportunity for witness and service from outside China.4 Most of all, Beijing would view denial of MFN as evidence that the United States wants to "contain" China, and seeks to thwart its modernization. Denying MFN would set back human rights, fuel nationalism manipulated by China's Leninist elite, reinforce hardliners in the ongoing leadership struggle, and destabilize and slow the privatization of the Chinese economy which has expanded personal freedom. It would also have significant security implications, affecting prospects for Chinese cooperation on a range of regional and global issues. From MFN to a Real Debate Americans do have a long list of legitimate concerns about China's domestic and foreign policies which fall into three broad baskets-economic, security, and human rights/values. China's policies which offend our values include: forced abortion, religious persecution, political repression, and Han Chinese colonization of Tibet. Chinese activities which run counter to our economic interests are mercantilistic trade practices in the form of protectionist industrial policies, market access, and national treatment for investment. U.S. concerns in regard to security issues center on military and nuclear exports to Iran and Pakistan, and long-range regional military ambitions and coercive tactics such as the March 1996 missile "tests" fired near Taiwan. All of these issues are morally and politically compelling in their own right. But can we realistically expect to change all these behaviors by the exercise of unilateral outside pressure? Can we hold the complex relationship hostage to any one single issue given the large and diverse interests we have in regard to China? In devising an effective policy to advance our interests and values in regard to China, our starting point must be an assessment of China. China is neither friend nor foe. Nor is it a static political and economic entity. Rather, China is an emerging great power, an ancient civilization undergoing unprecedented economic and social change. Its Leninist leaders have made a huge bet on economic modernization from which they derive what legitimacy they have. They are betting, in effect, that they can ride the tiger of market reform and dependence on the international economy while maintaining their political monopoly. Recent East Asian experience in countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand suggests that over time, as a sizeable urban middle class develops, political change tends to follow. Nonetheless, the outcome of China's experiment is not inevitable. But history argues for some measure of forbearance. -3- The way the present China debate is framed-"Engagement or Containment,"-has itself become an obstacle to finding a new basis for the U.S.-China relationship. Engagement is a tactic or a commitment to a process, not a policy; containment is, at this stage, the wrong approach. Unlike the U.S.S.R., China is not an ideological, expansionist military threat to the very existence of the United States, nor an autarchic economic system. Rather, there is global competition for the China market, and China has based its very modernization effort on joining the international economy. In its efforts to join the WTO, in its ascension to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, there is clear evidence that it is seeking to integrate itself into the international system, not to upend that system. No regional ally will support Soviet-type containment, though all seek a counter-balance. The real issue is defining the character of engagement with China. The reality of China is that it will be ambiguous in its behavior for perhaps another generation. Its interests will overlap in some areas and conflict in others. The challenge to U.S. policy is to define our priorities and benchmark China's conduct vis-a- vis American interests. We must face the reality that we can not have it all at once. We must pick our issues and husband our leverage wisely, building coalitions when possible. We must be tough, but smart. Roadmap for a China Policy We need a new national debate in order to rebuild a bipartisan consensus on China-one that existed from Nixon opening in 1971-72 until 1989. It must be led by the President, and a major policy review would be a useful place to start. The Executive branch would be well to find ways to improve its mechanisms of consultation with Congress. There are various strategies for getting out of the MFN trap permanently. China could simply be declared a market economy (it is about 50 percent privatized), and thus, exempt from Jackson-Vanik. Another approach would be to either repeal Jackson-Vanik or adopt another legislative vehicle to govern the MFN process for non-members of the WTO while automatically granting MFN to WTO members. In the interim, Sec.301 and Special 301 (of the 1974 Trade Act) tools could be used to open Chinese markets in a more targeted fashion. At present, it appears that an ugly, contentious debate looms in coming weeks. It is unlikely that there will ultimately be veto-proof majorities sufficient to override the President on MFN. But the price of MFN renewal may be essentially a vote of no confidence in the Administration's China policy. Various pieces of alternative legislation aimed at punishing China are likely to emerge. The net result would be continued volatile U.S.-China relations, and persisting political opposition which will undercut U.S.-China policy. -4- Regardless of the outcome of the MFN debate in Congress, the President must lead a new national debate aimed at finding the balance in advancing U.S. interests and values in regard to China. Along with a policy review, the President needs to communicate clearly to the American people-as he did in the NAFTA debate and on Bosnia policy when the decision to intervene was made-the goals, priorities, benchmarks for success or failure, and logic of his China policy. (Future PPI policy papers in this series will address the full range of policy issues.) The following is an outline of suggested priorities, effective ways to achieve demonstrable results, and benchmarks for progress: The United States should shift the economic focus from MFN to a far more important long-term issue: China's accession to the WTO. This will shape China's economy and its commercial relationship with the world for the next generation, set the tone for the accession of Russia and others, and affect the very credibility of the WTO. This is the issue on which to build a coalition with the European Union and Japan to jointly press for subjecting China to firm commercial disciplines; e.g., to lock in enforceable sanctions on sectors in which Beijing will phase in market disciplines, etc. Congress should also demand that the Administration set up a process of regular consultation on the China-WTO negotiations. Along with these economic interests, security issues are a high priority. Instead of "dialogue," we should pursue results-oriented strategic talks with China on the future of nuclear weapons, their export controls, and place a priority on curbing Chinese military and nuclear exports to Southwest Asia, principally, Iran and Pakistan. Stopping C-802 missile exports to Iran is a sensible priority of some urgency. These sophisticated missiles pose a new threat to U.S. naval forces in the Gulf where we have vital interests. Chinese collaboration with Iran's military ambitions is against our interests (and theirs). The Administration has imposed sanctions against Chinese firms for selling chemical precursors (which could be used to make weapons) to Iran. This is a smart use of proportionate, targeted sanctions. Other steps might be considered such as: cut off export-import financing for state-owned firms suspected of violating non-proliferation commitments; bar firms owned by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) from doing business in the United States until Beijing complies with treaties it has signed. There are a number of other ways in which the Administration could "get tough" with China: by stepping up U.S. counter-intelligence against China, -5- particularly against industrial spying and attempts to acquire technology under false pretense; by tightening export controls and more closely monitoring end use of technology exports; by demanding on-the-ground monitoring for compliance with trade agreements; and by pressing for more cooperation with U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency efforts in the Golden Triangle (along the Thai-Burma-China borders) from which the majority of heroin comes to the United States. Hong Kong, which reverts to Chinese sovereignty on July 1, 1997, is a difficult issue of special concern. We should benchmark three core issues: free and fair elections in '98; integrity of the courts and the civil service; and financial and commercial autonomy. We should stress that the issue in Hong Kong is not just one of human rights. Rather, it is Beijing's credibility as an interlocutor. In the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration (which China submitted to the U.N. as an international agreement) and in its own Basic Law governing Hong Kong, Beijing committed itself to allow "a high degree of autonomy," maintaining "Hong Kong's way of life for fifty years." If China now interprets these agreements any way it sees fit, will it do the same with WTO agreements or arms control accords? We should explore ways of taking action to rescind the separate legal and economic treatment mandated in U.S. law if China fails to abide by its commitment to Hong Kong's autonomy. Congressionally mandated State Department reports on Hong Kong offer a ready means to measure China's performance. If it is behaving as one political and economic system, perhaps we should treat it as one. Rethinking Human Rights Finally, we need to rethink our strategy for enhancing human rights in China. This begins with its very definition. We need to understand that the most important forces for change in China are coming from within, not from without. The spread of economic freedom has expanded the realm of individual autonomy and shrunk the realm of the State. Most fundamentally, the role of the dan-wei, the work unit, in the lives of Chinese citizens has sharply diminished as the economy has privatized. Economic freedom is an aspect of human rights. We should not forget that MFN and U.S. economic involvement in China has expanded personal freedom and decreased state intrusiveness in the lives of millions of Chinese. There are some modest signs of positive movement in regard to rule of law. It is worth noting that in March 1996, China adopted new criminal codes, a modest but significant step toward rule of law. Citizens now can and have successfully sued the government. Moreover, Beijing has indicated it will sign and ratify the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights of the U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights. This is normative behavior to be welcomed. The United States and other -6- G-7 countries should also press China to sign the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. We should pursue a three-pronged approach to human rights designed to facilitate change from within rather than imposing it from the outside. In areas where internal trends are moving in positive directions-expansion of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), rule of law, local elections-the United States should cooperate with China in facilitating these trends. We should expand efforts of groups such as the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and the International Republican Institute (IRI) to promote civil society. Already the IRI has helped China organize village elections (to be extended to county government). Promoting exchange programs, supporting NGOs and civil society, and aiding rule of law via NED and private sector programs all can have an impact on human rights. We should step up hortatory pressure articulating our values through the Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. In addition, we should use U.S. Congress-National People's Congress and/or NGO-NGO dialogue as forums to make these points. One way to allow individuals to exercise their condemnation of repression in China would be, as the Heritage Foundation has proposed, to enact "Know Your Trading Partner" legislation. Such legislation would require the Administration to identify all Chinese military-owned companies and products, allowing consumers to make a choice. Another aspect of U.S. human rights strategy must be quiet diplomacy (with our allies as well as Beijing) to identify realizable goals for human rights-for example, Beijing's recognition of the Pope and other moves towards more religious freedom, Red Cross visits to jails, and release of leading dissidents. Finally, there should be carefully targeted penalties, for example, cutting access to the International Development Agency (IDA), and other concessional lending for particular human rights abuses. Conclusion The above are offered as notional ideas for how to break out of the confines of the MFN debate, to offer a different way to think about China, and to identify appropriate policy instruments to address the long list of American concerns in regard to China. We must begin to define a tough, but smart approach to China that achieves results in areas identified as top priority concerns. Economic and security issues should be at the top of the list. There is no silver bullet, no bumper sticker for a workable China policy that satisfies the many deeply felt concerns about China. The emergence of China is the biggest challenge facing the international economic and political system into the 21st century. It requires focused, sustained attention and leadership from the Executive Branch and a working partnership with Congress. There must be limits to partisanship and some consensus on the basics of a relationship with China. -7- Endnotes 1. See Robert Kagan, "The Case For Containment of China," The Weekly Standard, January 20, 1997, pps.23-27. 2. A recently completed U.S.-Vietnam trade accord will result in MFN for Vietnam. 3. See John Maggs, "The Myth of the China Market;" The New Republic, March 10, 1997, pps 15-17. 4. See, "Mission Agencies View MFN Pressure as Counter-Productive," Press Release of the China Service Coordinating Office; Wheaton, Illinois; March 27, 1997. -8- Sandy / AAST True FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON, D.C. Bob Kyle is going home because /he is sick. He would like you - to call him at home. 364 3004 MACK MCLARTY April 22, 1997 To: Sandy Berger While I do not disagree with our current posture on fast track, I did read with some concern the attached cable which I thought you would find relevant to our recent discussions regarding hemispheric trade. As you stated on so many occasions with your usual eloquence and clarity, the world continues to change and move forward and is not going to wait on us for very long. way 4/28 on & 4 MACK Attachment Jhanas return they let's I'm I cata. Mexico, coming should to the srew drass. we move now. @ THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON June 11, 1997 To: Lael Brainard An unlikely ally, but a well done commentary which I thought you would find of interest and relevant to our recent discussions. my Attachment Desk MACK MCLARTY June 9, 1997 To: Bob Kyle An unlikely ally, but a well done commentary which I thought you would find of interest and relevant to our recent discussions. w.p Attachment Desk Steve nelson Heritage Foundation andrew A tax-exempt public policy research institute Eric May 21, 1997 Deak The Honorable Mac McClarty Counselor to the President The White House Washington, D.C. Dear Mr. McClarty: It was a pleasure to be able to share a common interest in promoting fast track and expansion of NAFTA, and a continued expansion of MFN for China with you on the flight from Miami to Washington today. With the thought that you might find them of special interest, I am enclosing the most recent paper we have done on NAFTA as a prelude to your official report due to the Congress by June 30. I am also enclosing a recent study we did on continued MFN for China. As I indicated to you on the plane, we look forward to working with you and your colleagues in every appropriate way to advance these common policy objectives which we share. Sincerely Gar Edwin J. Feulner, Jr. President EJF/ms Phillip N. Truluck, Executive Vice President Grace-Marie Arnett, Vice President Edwin J. Feulner, Jr., President Herbert B. Berkowitz, Vice President Robert G. Blatz, Vice President Stuart M. Butler, Vice President Kim R. Holmes, Vice President Michael G. Franc, Vice President Lewis F. Gayner, Vice President Adam Meyerson, Vice President John Von Kannon, Vice President & Treasurer Bernard Lomas, Counselor Robert E. Russell, Jr., Counselor David R. Brown, M.D., Chairman Board of Trustees J. Frederic Rench, Secretary Richard M. Scaife, Vice Chairman Midge Decter Jeb Bush Grover Coors Hon. J. William Middendorf, II Edwin J. Feulner, Jr. Thomas L. Rhodes Jerry Hume Hon. Frank Shakespeare Hon. William E. Simon Thomas A. Roe Barb Van Andel-Gaby Preston A. Wells Hon. Jay Van Andel Honorary Trustees Joseph Coors Kathryn Davis, Ph.D. Hon. Jack Eckerd Hon. Henry H. Fowler Robert H. Krieble, Ph.D. Henry Salvatori 214 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E. Washington, D.C. 20002-4999 (202) 546-4400 http://www.heritage.org The T Backgrounder Heritage Foundation No. 1117 The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E. Washington, D.C. 20002-4999 (202) 546-4400 http://www.heritage.org Share - Nersy May 16, 1997 Arder Earn per NAFTA'S THREE-YEAR REPORT CARD: AN "A" FOR NORTH AMERICA'S ECONOMY INTRODUCTION P resident Bill Clinton is legally required to provide Congress with a detailed "report card" by July 1, 1997, covering the first three years of implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which includes the United States, Mexico, and Canada. This report will come under intense congressional scrutiny because many Members of Congress have indicated that their willingness to renew the President's fast-track negotiating authority will depend on their perception of how well NAFTA has performed during its first three years. If the Clinton Administration's report is objective and accurate, it will show NAFTA to be a remarkable success. Despite the doomsday warnings about what would happen under NAFTA, hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs have not been destroyed, the U.S. manufacturing base has not been weakened, and U.S. sovereignty has not been undermined. Instead, total NAFTA trade has increased, U.S. exports and employment levels have risen significantly, and the average living standards of American workers have improved. Indeed, if NAFTA were to be graded on its effects after only three years, it would receive an "A+" for enhancing the level of trade between the United States and its North American neighbors; an "A+" for increasing the number of U.S. jobs that support this increased trade; an "A+" for its positive impact on manufacturing and on the personal income of American workers; and a "B" both for encouraging U.S. compliance with implementation of NAFTA's deadlines and for improving U.S. relations with Mexico in general. Finally, although much more can be done, NAFTA has been instrumental in the strides Mexico has made in liberalizing its economy, and is one reason Mexico is taking steps to reform its political system. With this kind of report card, Congress should have no doubts about the success that NAFTA has achieved. Note: Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt :o aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. THE NAFTA REPORT CARD The Clinton Administration's three-year evaluation should rate the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement as follows: Growth in Trade: A+ Total North American trade increased from $293 billion in 1993 to $420 billion in 1996, a gain of $127 billion or 43 percent during NAFTA's first three years. 1 If that gain had been with a single country, it would have made that country the fourth-largest trading partner of the United States. In 1996, U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico, at $190 billion, exceeded U.S. exports to any other area of the world, including the entire Pacific Rim or all of Europe. Mexico and Canada purchased $3 of every $10 in U.S. exports and supplied $3 of every $10 in U.S. imports in 1996. Overall, total U.S. exports of goods and services grew from $602.5 billion in 1993-the last year before NAFTA was implemented-to $825.9 billion in 1996, a gain of $223.4 billion. 2 Growth in U.S. Exports: A+ Thanks to NAFTA, Mexican tariffs-which had averaged 10 percent before the trade agreement was implemented-now average less than 6 percent, while average U.S. tariffs have fallen from 4 percent to about 2.5 percent. As a result, U.S. exports to Mexico grew by 37 percent from 1993 to 1996, reaching a record $57 billion. 3 During this period, U.S. exports to Canada also increased by 33 percent, to $134 billion. Total two-way trade between the United States and Canada was $290 billion in 1996, while total two-way trade between the United States and Mexico was nearly $130 billion. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. exports to Mexico in the fourth quarter of 1996 were growing at an annualized rate of $64 billion. Moreover, U.S. market share in Mexico increased from 69 percent of total Mexican imports in 1993 to 76 percent in 1996. 4 During NAFTA's first three years, 39 of the 50 states increased their exports to Mexico; moreover, 44 states reported a growth in exports to Mexico during 1996 as the pace of U.S. exports to that country accelerated. 5 1 In 1996, U.S. global trade (exports plus imports) totaled $1.765 trillion-over 23 percent of U.S. GDP, compared with 10 percent in 1970. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has estimated that by 2010, trade will repre- sent about 36 percent of U.S. GDP. Since 1988, almost 70 percent of U.S. economic growth has been derived solely from exports (roughly 25 percent since 1992). More than 11 million U.S. jobs depend on exports, 1.5 million more than in 1992; 20 percent of American jobs are supported by trade and pay between 13 percent and 16 percent more, on average, than non-export jobs. 2 The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that every $1 billion increment in U.S. exports creates 22,800 new jobs in the United States. This would mean that U.S. export growth from 1993 to 1996 was responsible for creating over 5 million U.S. jobs, or 57.7 percent of the 8.8 million net new payroll jobs created by the U.S. economy during this three- year period. 3 Exports of U.S. components to Mexico's duty-free component assembly industry made up approximately 28 percent of total U.S. exports to Mexico in 1996, according to a report for the USTR by the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). The ITC found that the use of U.S. components in Mexican assembly plants had grown at an average yearly rate of 15.8 percent since NAFTA was implemented in 1994. 4 Testimony of Regina Vargo, Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Western Hemisphere, U.S. Department of Commerce, before the Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade of the House Committee on International Relations, March 5, 1997. 2 Growth in U.S. Employment: A+ NAFTA has shattered the myth that U.S. trade deficits destroy U.S. jobs. The combined U.S. trade deficit with Canada and Mexico increased during the first three years of NAFTA's implementation-from $9 billion in 1992 to $39.9 bil- lion in 1996-because Canada and Mexico suffered economic recessions. Since 1992, however, the U.S. economy has created 12 million net new jobs. Moreover, manufacturing employment grew from 16.9 million jobs in 1992 to 18.3 million in 1993, an increase of 1.4 million net new jobs. 6 The general unemployment rate declined from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 5.3 percent in 1996. U.S. exports to NAFTA countries currently support 2.3 million U.S. jobs. 7 Output Gains for U.S. Manufacturing: A+ The largest post-NAFTA gains in U.S. exports to Mexico have been in such high-technology manufacturing sectors as transportation and electronic equip- ment, industrial machinery, plastics and rubber, fabricated metal products, and chemicals. 8 NAFTA also has been a boon for major U.S. agricultural states like Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota, and traditional southern textile states like North Carolina and Alabama. NAFTA has encouraged U.S. and foreign investors with apparel and footwear factories in Asia to relocate their produc- tion operations to Mexico. This diversion of investment from Asia to Mexico "saved the heavier end of clothing manufacture in the U.S.: the textile mills," as Rich Nadler, a journalist who has covered NAFTA's progress since 1992, recently observed.⁹ Improved Standards of Living for American Workers: A+ According to Nadler, who has reviewed pre- and post-NAFTA growth rates in U.S. standards of living, the rate of increase in personal wealth has more than tripled since NAFTA was implemented. 10 His review measured the improve- ment in three ways: (1) inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) per capita grew by 1.79 percent annually in 1994 and 1995, compared with only 0.23 percent from 1990 to 1993; (2) disposable personal income growth, adjusted for inflation, averaged 1.89 percent annually in 1994 and 1995, com- pared with 0.25 percent annually from 1990 to 1993; and (3) personal con- sumption expenditures grew by an inflation-adjusted 1.76 percent annually during 1994 and 1995, compared with 0.56 percent a year from 1990 to 1993. 5 Data from Massachusetts Institute of Social and Economic Research. 6 As of February 24, 1997, 110,408 U.S. workers had been certified as eligible for training assistance under NAFTA's Trade Adjustment Assistance Program, administered by the U.S. Department of Labor. The U.S. economy, however, currently creates this many net new jobs in about two weeks. The general U.S. unemployment rate declined from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 5.3 percent in 1996. 7 Office of the USTR, "NAFTA and Jobs," 1996. 8 Since 1992, U.S. industrial production has increased 18 percent. During this four-year period, U.S. manufactured exports increased 42 percent, high-technology exports rose 45 percent, services exports were up 26 percent, and agri- cultural exports expanded 40 percent. The Western Hemisphere and the Asian Pacific Rim now account for over 70 percent of total U.S. exports, up from 65 percent in 1992. 9 Rich Nadler, "NAFTA: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs," K. C. Jones, Overland Park, Kansas, April 1997. 10 Ibid. 3 U.S. Compliance with NAFTA: B In December 1995, the Clinton Administration postponed indefinitely the implementation of a NAFTA deadline to allow Mexican trucks to circulate in the southwest United States. The Administration based its decision on concerns relating to transport safety and the fight against drug traffickers. The President, however, was acting in response to pressures from union and environmentalist groups that joined forces with bipartisan anti-drug hawks to block implementa- tion of that provision of NAFTA. The decision established a negative precedent but did nothing to improve Mexican truck safety or diminish the flow of illegal drugs across the porous and unguarded U.S.-Mexico border. U.S.-Mexico Trade Relations: B President Clinton's first official trip to Mexico this month came at a time in which relations between the two countries were at their lowest point in years. 11 The trade and investment growth achieved during NAFTA's first three years has been eclipsed by the peso crisis and political turmoil in Mexico and by growing bilateral tensions over drug control policy, immigration, and the Helms-Burton Act's tightening of economic sanctions against Cuba. These tensions in U.S.- Mexico relations have surfaced because the Clinton Administration did not assign a sufficiently high priority to Mexico during its first term in office. Pro- tectionists have laid the blame for all of these problems at NAFTA's door. NAFTA, however, was never intended to be anything other than a free trade agreement-a three-way pact by the United States, Mexico, and Canada to eliminate all tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade over a period of 10 to 15 years. NAFTA was designed to encourage faster growth in North American trade and investment, which it has been doing successfully since January 1, 1994. It was not meant to solve other problems in U.S.-Mexico relations. Reform Process in Mexico: A Although Mexico has made great strides during the past decade in liberalizing its economy and reforming its closed political system, it still is undergoing a difficult transition from a closed economy and political system to an open capi- talist democracy. Moreover, this transition will continue for at least another decade or two. One of NAFTA's important achievements has been to "lock in" the process of economic and political reform under way in Mexico for the past decade. Mexico's membership in NAFTA, the World Trade Organization, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has created international commitments and link- ages that it cannot ignore. Even though The Heritage Foundation's 1997 Index of Economic Freedom still accords Mexico a ranking of 3.35, or "Mostly Not Free, ,,12 Mexico has become a more democratic country since NAFTA was implemented. Under President Ernesto Zedillo, Mexico's constitution was amended in 1996 to make the electoral process more free, more transparent, and more independent of the government. These reforms, in effect for Mexico's 11 Julia Preston, "U.S. Trying to Smooth Mexico Path for Clinton," The New York Times, April 20, 1997, p. 4. 12 Kim R. Holmes, Bryan T. Johnson, and Melanie Kirkpatrick, eds., 1997 Index of Economic Freedom (Washington, D.C.: The Heritage Foundation and Dow Jones & Co., Inc., 1997), pp. 306-308. 4 July 6, 1997, elections to Congress, will accelerate both the demise of the one- party system that has dominated Mexican politics for nearly 70 years and its eventual replacement by a competitive multi-party democracy. NAFTA: A SUCCESS BY ANY OBJECTIVE STANDARD The data on trade, production, and employment growth for NAFTA's first three years quantify objectively that NAFTA is good for the United States. Moreover, a recent eco- nomic analysis published by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago concludes that NAFTA will lead to output gains for all three participant countries. 13 These gains are roughly twice as large as those predicted by previous forecasts of NAFTA's potential for accelerated growth in North American trade, output, and employment growth. The Federal Reserve study, based on a dynamic economic model, also predicts that the adjustment to NAFTA should be virtually completed by 2004 (although NAFTA will not be fully phased in until 2009) and that NAFTA will greatly expand the flow of all goods, both from Canada and the United States to Mexico and from Mexico to the United States and Canada. In general, bilateral Mexican-North American trade should increase about 20 percent as a result of NAFTA. 14 This projected growth also means more U.S. jobs and a higher standard of living for American workers. CONCLUSION In his State of the Union speech on February 4, 1997, President Clinton called on Congress to approve new fast-track negotiating authority in order to pursue new trade ini- tiatives in Asia and Latin America during 1997 and 1998. "Now we must act to expand our exports," the President said, "especially to Asia and Latin America-two of the fastest growing regions on earth-or be left behind as these emerging economies forge new ties with other nations. ,,15 The President is right to emphasize the importance of U.S. trade with Latin America. The Western Hemisphere accounted for 39 percent of U.S. goods exports in 1996 and was the only region in which the United States recorded a trade surplus in both 1995 and 1996. As a market for U.S. goods, the Western Hemisphere already is nearly twice as large as the European Union and nearly 50 percent larger than Asia. Moreover, while U.S. goods exports to the world generally increased 57 percent from 1990 to 1996, U.S. exports to Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) increased by 110 percent during the same period. 16 If current trends continue, Latin America alone will exceed Japan and Western Europe combined as an export market for U.S. goods by the year 2010. Congress should have no doubts about the success of NAFTA. Although only three years old, this international trade agreement is growing with amazing speed. Even though three years may seem like too little time to reach any final judgments about NAFTA, it already is clear that critics of this agreement have been wrong on all counts. 17 Congress 13 See Michael A. Kouparitsas, "A dynamic macroeconomic analysis of NAFTA," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, January 1997. The study concluded that, under NAFTA, Mexico's GDP is predicted to rise 3.26 percent, U.S. GDP will rise 0.24 percent, and Canada's GDP will increase by 0.11 percent. 14 Ibid. 15 "Clinton calls for fast-track authority in State of the Union speech," Inside NAFTA, Vol. 4, No. 3 (February 6, 1997), p. 1. 16 Office of the USTR. 5 will be acting in the U.S. national interest when it approves a new fast-track negotiating authority so that the Clinton Administration can put U.S. trade policy back on track around the world. John Sweeney Policy Analyst HERITAGE STUDIES ON LINE Heritage Foundation studies are available electronically at several online locations. On the Internet, The Heritage Foundation's home page on the World Wide Web is www.heritage.org Bookmark this site and visit it daily for new information. 17 See Sydney Weintraub, "NAFTA at Three: A Progress Report," Significant Issues Series, Vol. XIX, No. 1, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., 1997. 6 Eric EDITOR'S NOTE Nelson YOUR LatinTrade BUSINESS SOURCE FOR LATIN AMERICA New Lynn H. Roberts Publisher and Editor-in-Chief Street Joachim Bamrud Editor Joseph S. Sims Managing Editor Samba Time? Rege Jeb Blount Senior Writer Ive Barreiros Director of Statistics Susie Picar Assistant Editor RUMOR HAS IT THAT U.S. PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON WILL DEDICATE Dina M. Carabelli Research Assistant more time on foreign policy in his second term than what he managed in his first four years. However, it remains to be seen just how much attention he'll shower on Gabriela Calderon- Research Assistant Latin America. Luis Rigual Editorial Assistant Although a Latin American country-Venezuela-is now the top provider of Alex Franco Editorial Intern oil to the United States, and Latin America provides U.S. companies the best growth opportunities in the world after Asia, U.S. officials have paid only scant Kevin Jolliffe Creative Director attention to the region since the historic December 1994 Summit of the Americas Adrian Fletes Production Director in Miami. That summit promised to start creating a Free Trade Area of the Ameri- Lourdes M. Lopez Graphic Artist cas by the year 2005. Eduardo C. Gomez Graphic Artist However, things didn't quite work out as expected. While Clinton officials and U.S. legislators have bickered about free Virginia F. Bru Graphic Artist trade and spent nearly two years distracted by the U.S. elec- John Otis Senior Editor tions, their Latin American counterparts signed several impor- Alliance for Trade tant trade agreements with each other as well as with the Marilyn A. Moore Special Projects Editor European Union. SPANISH-LANGUAGE EDITION The Latin American integration drive has been led by Mer- Oscar Diaz Associate Editor cosur, the South American Common Market of Argentina, Andres Hernández Alende Senior Editor Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. Chile, which has been waiting CONTRIBUTING EDITORS for NAFTA membership since 1994, has joined Mercosur as Jim Freer, Carl Honoré (Europe) an associate member, as has Bolivia. Andean Pact members Colombia and Venezuela are next in line. CORRESPONDENTS Today, it is therefore Brazil's president Fernando Hen- Adam Thomson Bogotá Raymond Colitt Caracas Renee McGaw Geneva Fiona Ortiz FLORIDA rique Cardoso rather than Bill Clinton who symbolizes Guatemala Sally Bowen Lima Carl Honoré London the push for regional integration. Tim Coone Mexico City John Glover Milan Yet, Cardoso is by no means any free trade champion. He has on several occa- Jim Welsh New Orleans Charles Thurston New sions unilaterally imposed tariff hikes and other trade barriers, much to the dismay York Mac Margolis Rio de Janeiro Thomas Long San Salvador Jonathan Wheatley São Paulo of Brazilian and foreign traders. His critics also charge that he has moved far too slow on needed reforms necessary to transform Brazil into the modern economic CONTRIBUTING PHOTOGRAPHERS champion it long has had the potential to be. All the same, it is now clear that it is Alejandro Balaguer, John Bunting, Sergio Dorantes, John Maier, Jr., Helen Hughes, Matthew Pace, thanks to Cardoso, that Latin America is any closer to a FTAA. Juan Carlos Piovano, Chris Sharp That being said, it is vital that the United States again resume a active role in the process. Expanding Mercosur may be necessary, but not sufficient, to create a EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD FTAA. The other piece of the puzzle is the United States and NAFTA. Gustave A. Cisneros Ernesto de Lima L In the interim, Latin America is fully entitled to move ahead with the European Dr. Gabriel Gonzalez Molina Union. The Europeans, long suffering from internal disputes on free trade and har- Wolf Grabendorff David Hirschmann monization, are now pushing actively for increased commercial ties with Latin G: Philip Hughes America. Anne 0: Krueger Needless to say, the United States can only defend its interests by taking the Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski Felipe Larrain B. same kind of concrete steps, instead of waiting on the sidelines. Siegfried Marks Although 2005 may seem far away. the negotiations for a FTAA will be complex Jens Olesen Felipe Ortiz de Zevallos enough-easily requiring the remaining eight years to start the process. There are Luis Pazos big differences between Mercosur and NAFTA, between big and small nations and Dr. Jorge Ramirez Ocampo Luis Rubio even the degree to which each nation wants to move towards liberalization. Dennis Yau Only by moving ahead, can these challenges be addressed in time. The time has come for the hemisphere's leaders to once again show the kind of The Editorial Advisory Board provides editorial advice to Latin Trade. Views reflected in Latin Trade do not neces- initiative and leadership they showed in Miami. sarily reflect those of the Editorial Advisory Board. Enough talk. Move ahead and create history. Ryn Member, InterAmerican Press Association -Joachim Bamrud Latin Trade is exclusively syndicated by PHOTOCOPY [email protected] The New York Times Syndication Service 8 LATIN TRADE PRESERVATION JUNE 1997 Questions /hyle THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Delayirs unti Budget / Rotus committed to 7155 Tr.d swnts to move B.pantism 2 Consulative or substance, tratics, tractics, traing LIE Bipantson Support Brond Build Bipartises foustation Before we prese t specific propesor Cossultirs w An intensted cost 100% LAB2 New Corpuss sit down & fAIL Retair our Commitaret to LIE codes twe try to reach CONSUSUS to more clound - THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Imp of first Tu-d 1 Need more that lives Ecoromy T or Expents GDP 17% - 30 % 11 MILLIN juBs ovExput pay me 2 were positional to open nbt nr joRs ton An G-7 countries receptions t opving CAPITAL why 3 Lcd Seizel / Seize from of Ca.W 110/0 CUST Adv 4 Multi/stram /WTO APEC Agri 5 Sectarn Software [ ] Fui speed THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Bre cwc Linle Ski.b AG-5/97 Viclar Radd Fridan Publisher / Pushids BUT NOT urter IV MA / Bipantism remises od FAST Trip - Chmlde Daky 3 Hin L + EV , people is CONSES Potes Enshine Ror COSSNST } Budget dear JSL only / frodt pensit is 2 +3 werls ri; Budget dear Mat h piece EB" "up a WAN" E Principals } Albright / Drky / Charlese B/ Sundy / polord / cabal Polism/ 54 Win FAST Track April 1157 Ensure - Potus has /Aid his hads ov DNT re: JAST Truch And DN is soids to J how us The was DANT we 're Committed Because 2 the night Thing to do sd Popes Legney Aspect Options / Full specl Alread w Brond first Truel 2 NATURALLY Tramed Inst True /Ch.le only + perhaps Sectorion Adva 3 w Delayirs Mouns Tound Chanke Chile only " NOT wath the Jisht" opportunistic in our Trude Policy mults/atenary Be. Sectoraly Agr: ITA Service, Soft was Istell Dr. night Auto medical Catalize 7TAR / APEL proass Enshine 1 Vichil Charlene / Susa Prophy 1 DA Trullo / Jim steinbas 1 JoW Psolessal Doug Sosnali m Sylin matthews/ Gene specials FAST Track MARCH 26/57 Gephardt twole - MAtsui not - G'bbour / Amerzic - "The Americal edge" Defined vision per BACA TOOLS he Needs to oper mankets - Markets / New Global Ecolomy Hish tech muts oth/mLts other / muts 218 -40 1 229 178 Rept. NI 180 40 TRUT Lott 220 Newt's position Road Test per alai Ev DA T Bis push / BUT we must Be committed. Mxics is the debate Resttivs the tears of the debate per Charlese mxics LNS nothing w Agr. nots, telecom, etc etc Need to get Charlee LIST. Hillin Joly opposition Better prepared : tougher NA702 They got serewel or NAFTA Sundy ENONMOUS PISH CUST of NOT Tighting Growth the Tride Strict this territors out So clearly Character 155ml Potus who does st Believe IN Anything. 'Pied Piper melang LANNY Jummes Brond Ame Lenders hip Notl. Secun X intuest Gate It's goirs to Be hand Allisia Betweel LABa JEWU 4 Rubir Broght up MAN Bridger, up 7nst Tred R I don't from understand I Need N Explanation of this Chartere plw seemed to wall 45A ing the president from negotiating trade THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, APRIL 1. 1997 A3 agreements." said one top trade official. President Clinton has been without we wanted. said Peggy Taylor. leg- fast-track negotiating power since 1994. Clinton Seeks islative director of the AFL-CIO. The only when his authority expired after a new way to protect workers in this country and world-trade pact was completed. Since in our trading partners is to have labor then. the administration has been able to More Leeway agreements written into trade agree- complete a few pacts - on telecommunica- ments. We would fight this vigor- tions and technology. for example - under ously. Added Steve Trossman. a spokes- specific exemptions. But the U.S. has man with the Teamsters Union: We don't been unable to launch any major initia- In Trade Pacts accept that side-agreement part. We would tives. because other countries are usually definitely oppose this." unwilling to negotiate a trade agreement Gephardt's Ire knowing Congress could tack on amend- By HELENE COOPER Dropping labor and environment from ments and new requirements. Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL fast track would also earn for Mr. Clinton Without fast track. President Clinton the ire of House Minority Leader Richard has been unable to extend the North WASHINGTON - The Clinton adminis- tration. in a move certain to infuriate labor Gephardt (D., Mo.). who has been staking American Free Trade Agreement to Chile. out a trade position for himself to the left of or to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement of unions. IS considering dropping labor and the administration and of Vice President the Americas. Moreover. without fast- environment objectives from legislation that would enable the president to negoti- AI Gore. The two are likely rivals for track. the U.S. can't take part in the ate future trade deals. the 2000 presidential nomination. Mr. Gep- coming World Trade Organization talks on hardt and House Minority Whip David agriculture. U.S. trade officials said they are seek- ing to jump-start the floundering measure. Bonior of Michigan have both indicated which has meandered in and out of Con- they won't support fast track if it doesn't gress for the past three years. During that include labor and environment. time, President Clinton has slowly lost his But administration officials say they ability to negotiate "fast-track" trade must bow to the political realities of a deals abroad. Under fast track. Congress Republican Congress. Republicans ada- can accept or reject a trade agreement but mantly oppose linking trade with labor and not amend it - a necessary factor for U.S. environment in trade pacts. and have trading partners. refused to budge from that stance. And The new proposal being floated within because so many Democrats don't like the administration would seek fast-track trade agreements and won't vote for them negotiating authority for four years. with anyway. the administration must appeal to an option to renew for another four years. Republicans to get a bill passed. officials said. While no final decision has Indeed. shortly after stating the Team- MM- been made. U.S. Trade Representative sters' opposition to the administration pro- Charlene Barshefsky is expected to take posal. Mr. Trossman added: "I don't want the proposal to congressional leaders be- to leave the impression that we'd support ginning this week. Administration officials 26) fast track if it included labor and environ- say they hope to have legislation ready for ment either. We're opposed to it. Period." Congress in three weeks. Trade officials say that labor's hard Issues in Side Agreements line on fast track ne reason the admin- U.S. trade officials say they recog- istration may cn a its stance. While nize that their one hope for getting fast- advancing labor ndards around the track authority may be a coalition of world is an admir. ration priority. "You moderate Democrats and Republicans. So don't advance those objectives by prevent- they may drop Mr. Clinton's initial pro- posal that would require U.S. officials to negotiate labor and environment stan- dards as a part of trade deals, backed by trade sanctions. Instead. Mr. Clinton would issue a separate presidential state- ment calling for labor and environmental issues to be negotiated in side agreements that don't have to go to Congress. Such a move would infuriate organized labor. because side agreements don't have the punitive punch of a trade pact. For example. it's unlikely the administration could negotiate a side agreement on labor rights that would subject an offending country to trade sanctions. "This isn't anywhere close to what Morton M. Kondracke http://www.rollcall.com/commentary/kondracke.html Commentary Pennsylvania Avenue Free-Trade Fight Threatens to Split Clinton, Hill Dems By Morton M. Kondracke Worried about a split with labor and top Congressional Democrats, the White House plans to delay action on its fast-track trade proposal until after a budget deal, possibly endangering its chances of passage. If budget negotiations drag into the fall, according to free-trade advocates in Congress, the delay will give opponents time to organize and, possibly, doom fast-track to defeat as an election year looms. Fast-track is one of a series of issues, including Medicare savings; cost-of-living adjustments; and Mexico, China, and NATO policy, on which Clinton is in conflict with liberal Democrats and their organized labor allies. At a top-level meeting of Clinton Cabinet members and White House staff on Tuesday, sources said there was near-unanimous agreement that, against labor's wishes, Clinton should recommend a "clean" fast-track bill in order to negotiate new agreements to expand worldwide free trade. Clinton, his Cabinet, and most of his top staff all are convinced -- correctly -- that free trade is one key to future US prosperity and that failure to reach new agreements will put the US at a disadvantage as Latin America and Asia form their own trading blocs. But liberals are just as convinced that free trade costs US jobs and pushes down wages, so House Democratic leaders Dick Gephardt (Mo) and David Bonior (Mich) are adamant that any new trade bill require Clinton to include fair-labor and environmental standards in future trade agreements. That, in turn, will be unpalatable to majority Republicans. The Administration needs authority from Congress to negotiate new trade agreements. "Fast track" is Congress's commitment that any agreements will be voted up or down without amendment. Clinton plans to buck Gephardt and Bonior, White House aides say, but officials at the Tuesday meeting want the fight postponed until after Clinton has reached a budget deal with Republicans, which chief of staff Erskine Bowles reported might come as early as June 1. One participant at the meeting said "the plan is for Clinton to show what he's for, but we have to figure out the sequencing." Clinton, this aide says, "wants to have an ample number of Democrats voting with him on the budget." Rep. Bob Matsui (Calif), the chief Democratic backer of Administration trade legislation, said that, if asked, he would recommend that fast-track and the budget be pushed on parallel tracks. I of 3 04/03/97 15:51:03 Morton M. Kondracke http://www.rollcall.com/commentary/kondracke.html "I understand the importance of a balanced budget," he said, "but if you delay [fast track], it'll make it much more difficult to pass." The fast-track issue is caught up not only in budget politics, but also in the already bubbling 2000 Democratic presidential race between Gephardt and Vice President Al Gore. Also having an impact on the policy debate are White House worries about how Democrats will respond during Congressional investigation of the 1996 fundraising scandal. Gephardt is laying down hard markers to secure the support of the AFL-CIO and the seniors' lobby, while Gore tries to repeat Clinton's previously successful strategy of holding liberal support while also occupying the political center. Gephardt's insistence that new trade agreements contain strong environmental standards is a foray onto Gore's home turf, the environmental movement. That movement split during the 1993 fight over the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Gore supported and Gephardt opposed. This year, Gephardt has opposed the Administration's certification of Mexico's drug enforcement program, warned that he might oppose Clinton's proposed $100 billion reduction in Medicare growth, and indicated that he will seek to block Clinton's plans to expand NATO and continue most-favored-nation trade status for China. Gephardt also joined other pro-Israel Members in criticizing Administration attendance at an Arab conclave held in the Gaza Strip to strategize on Israeli land grabs, and he forced Clinton to back away from Senate GOP Leader Trent Lott's (Miss) plan to create a bipartisan commission on the Consumer Price Index. Clinton aides acknowledge there is concern in the White House that drifting too far away from liberal policy might weaken Democratic support amid upcoming GOP scandal probes. While public polls indicate that Clinton's popular support remains strong despite scandal stories in the newspapers, private White House "push polls" indicate that his support falls the more voters are told about the scandals. A study by the non-partisan Center for Media and Public Affairs indicates that Clinton's approval rating might be holding in the mid-50s because network TV newscasts have carried only a fifth of the number of scandal stories per week as the major daily newspapers. With the exception of the CPI adjustment -- anathema to the AARP and AFL-CIO -- Clinton so far has stood up to liberal pressure reasonably well this year on such issues as Medicare, NATO, Mexico, and MFN. The scheduling delay on fast-track indicates another possible wobble, however. Already, Clinton's leg injury has caused his trip to Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay to be rescheduled from May until the fall, reducing pressure for action on fast-track. Delay into 1998 could kill fast-track and damage the government's ability to open up job-creating overseas markets for US products and services. Clinton has to wage a fight for free trade sometime. It might as well be now. More Information about Morton Kondracke 2 of 3 04/03/97 15:51:03 Trip thes F N.Y. - fin up Restrigt Dut cases Fast True / Lake - Patech No ve From Document No. WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 4-4 7 DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: Fast Track SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT McCURRY BOWLES McGINTY McLARTY NASH PODESTA RUFF MATHEWS SMITH RAINES REED BAER SOSNIK ECHAVESTE LEWIS EMANUEL YELLEN GIBBONS STREETT HALE SPERLING HERMAN HAWLEY HIGGINS WILLIAMS HILLEY RADD KLAIN BERGER LINDSEY REMARKS: This mime vent to Gothi last aight. RESPONSE: Staff Secretary Ext. 6-2702 THE WHITE HOUSE 8 WASHINGTON April 7, 1997 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT From: Samuel Berger Daniel Tarullo Gene Sperling ge Subject: Fast Track Purpose To determine how to proceed on seeking fast track authority. Our credibility in Latin America increasingly is eroding because we have not moved beyond rhetorical support. Moreover, economic integration is proceeding in the hemisphere (e.g., MERCOSUR), but without us. However, there is substantial Democratic opposition to any fast track bill that does not mandate provisions in trade agreements that provide for trade restrictions on countries for failure to meet labor and environmental standards. Republicans will not accept such provisions, but they have also indicated they would insist on significant Democratic support for a fast track bill. The issue is further complicated by the possibility of an early budget agreement, which may also involve a break in party unity, and which will command the lion's share of our resources and time, including your own, for at least the next month. Background Fast track has never been popular in the Congress. The House tends to be skeptical of trade liberalizing agreements in general, while the Senate tends to be resistant to the constraints upon floor debate and amendments. Prior enactments of fast track were contained in broad-ranging trade bills in which support for fast track was accepted by some members in return for making U.S. import laws more restrictive and market access laws such as section 301 more aggressive. These bills also provided new programs for displaced workers. The normal difficulties of obtaining fast track are compounded this year by several factors. First, free trade agreements have become strongly associated by many in Congress and the public with NAFTA. The peso crisis and resulting reversal in our trade balance, along with seemingly extraneous issues such as drugs and corruption in Mexico, have made NAFTA unpopular in many quarters. Second, budgetary constraints suggest little room for additional programs to ease displacement anxieties of potentially affected groups of workers. Third, the substantial resistance to fast track among House Democrats presents a very awkward situation as we try to conclude a budget agreement that is already placing severe strains on party unity. A number of your political and congressional advisors are particularly concerned that proceeding vigorously with fast track now risks both alienating Democrats we need on the budget and sustaining an early loss that would reduce our influence on the Hill. On the other hand, there is political cost to delay: Gephardt and other opponents already are lining up Members, our supporters are exposed and we may exacerbate the challenge facing us if we don't proceed soon. The most contentious issue is the role of labor and environmental standards in future trade agreements. For NAFTA we negotiated "side agreements" for labor and the environment, which provided a special form of dispute settlement where there had been a "persistent failure" by one of the governments to enforce its own laws on some labor areas and the environment. If such a failure is found, fines are to be imposed on the offending government, with trade sanctions imposed only if the fine is not paid. These agreements were approved by the Congress. They have not been frequently invoked. There appears to be strong support among business and the Republican leadership for fast track authority, but only if labor and environmental provisions are not included in any agreements negotiated under fast track authority. This proviso seems to include side agreements approved by the Congress, though perhaps not side agreements reached on the basis of Executive authority alone. Representative Gephardt and the AFL-CIO, on the other hand, have indicated they will actively oppose fast track unless the terms of the authority require that labor and environmental provisions, backed by trade sanctions, be included in any future free trade agreements. Even the environmental groups that eventually supported the NAFTA side agreement will be hard to win over this time around, since they have been disappointed in environmental developments along the border and believe that they had an understanding with the Administration that future trade agreements would be "greener" than NAFTA. However, anything less than the side agreements approach would surely elicit charges that we are backing off even a moderate commitment to the environment. When USTR consulted extensively with the AFL-CIO earlier in the year there were some hints that labor might not strongly oppose fast track (there was never any hope they would support it). However, at the AFL-CIO's annual meeting in Los Angeles in February there was a surge of anti-trade sentiment from some constituent unions, and the leadership had to work hard to avoid a resolution that would have essentially opposed new trade agreements under any circumstances. There is only limited hope that further discussions would yield agreement on some intermediate position. A major anti-fast track campaign from labor is more likely. In the House, where any fast track bill must originate, and where it will be tougher to prevail, we will need at least 120-140 Republican votes, which the Republican leadership seem to believe they can secure in the absence of a problem with the labor and environmental provisions. Vote counting is complicated by the fact that House freshmen and sophomores have not had to cast a 3 difficult vote on trade. Based on previous landmark trade votes, the House Republican profile is as follows: 98 Yes on NAFTA/GATT 2 No on NAFTA, Yes on GATT 25 No on NAFTA/GATT 91 Freshmen/Sophomores with no past trade votes As was the case with NAFTA, Republicans are likely to insist that we get a substantial number of Democrats (perhaps 80-90) to support our position. Many House Democrats who are potential supporters of fast track are clearly uncomfortable with being pulled from opposite sides by their leadership and the White House. The House Democratic profile is as follows: 43 Yes on NAFTA/GATT 48 No on NAFTA, Yes on GATT 57 No on NAFTA/GATT 59 Freshmen/Sophomores with no past trade votes Our challenge in the House is exacerbated by the departure of most of the key Democratic members who provided the whip organization for NAFTA. Indeed, Matsui is the only remaining member who performed that role. Our core of support should come from the 43 Democrats who voted for both NAFTA and GATT. If forty or so additional votes are needed, the next best target group is composed of the freshmen and sophomores, with some lesser possibility of picking up a handful from the group that voted no on NAFTA but yes on GATT. We will have to pick up these Democrats with an intermediate position on labor and environmental standards that gives them something to vote for while not losing significant Republican support. Our position would likely be a "clean" fast track bill that did not either require or exclude labor and environment provisions of any sort. However, we will have to state our intentions on these issues. Charlene has recommended that we support an approach that would include side agreements with sufficiently strong labor and environment provisions to attract some Democrats. However, these agreements would not be submitted to Congress (which would engender wholesale Republican opposition) and thus would be Executive agreements only, which in theory could be terminated by a later Administration even as the underlying trade agreement remained in place. She also recommends that we formally state our intention to consider labor and environmental circumstances, among other criteria, in selecting countries with which to negotiate. Finally, she proposes a more active effort in non-trade fora to promote labor and environmental standards. Suggested Approach There are three sets of considerations that need to be reconciled. First, it is important not to 4 exacerbate relations with House Democrats over fast track at the same time as budget negotiations are placing strains on party unity. Since any fast track bill with a real chance of passage will fall short of what labor and many House Democrats will demand, waging both fights simultaneously could alienate at the worst moment some of those whose support we will need on the budget. Second, and related to the first point, our resources will be severely strained if we try to fight two major legislative battles at once. The resource problem extends to your time, which will be extensively required for meetings with Members on both issues. Until the budget situation clarifies one way or the other, a major commitment of senior Administration resources does not seem feasible. (There will also be demands on your time in connection with CWC ratification.) The third set of considerations pulls in a different direction. Whether we like it or not, the fast- track fight has already begun. Further delay in active Administration efforts to secure fast-track will give opponents time to consolidate their position. Too much delay will leave you headed for South America (October) without this critical trade authority. In several discussions over the past week, we have concluded that the best approach for at least the next month is to reaffirm visibly your commitment to fast track and to an activist trade policy, while not taking steps that would join the battle over labor and environmental standards. A corollary of this approach is that we would try to freeze any flow of support towards an anti- fast track position by indicating a desire to see if consensus positions on labor and the environment can be worked out. The elements of this approach are as follows: (1) A speech by you that includes an affirmation of your support for fast track and our trade policies and that calls on all sides to see if a consensus can be reached on pursuing free trade agreements while respecting labor and environmental standards. Such a speech is critical for publicly committing to make fast track a priority. We could use your remarks at the American Society of Newspaper Editors this Friday as the venue for this speech. (2) A single, early meeting between you and a bi-partisan group of about two dozen Members, in which you make the same statements of support for fast track, and indicate you are asking us to work with them to try to work out consensus positions. (3) Charlene and others would continue consultations with others on the Hill in pursuit of the same end. (4) We would also work individually with Members to urge that they not commit to an opposing position while we are trying to work out a common view. (5) We would bring in labor and environmental groups to be sure they feel thoroughly consulted. (6) If the budget process does not move forward rapidly, we would reassess our 5 position in May; if it does move forward, we would then proceed rapidly to present a bill. There are risks associated with this approach, to be sure. In particular, our unwillingness to offer a bill or to state our positions on labor and environment may be criticized quickly as avoiding the issue that matters, and our attempt at consensus seen as at best futile and at worst ceding the field to those opposed to fast track. Yet, in the current circumstances, any approach risks harm to our interests on the budget, fast track, or both. In general, your advisors believe that this approach best balances both our interests and the risks. RECOMMENDATION That you approve the approach described above. Approve Disapprove Discuss 03/21/97 FRI 13:53 FAX 202 395 3911 U.S.T.R / hilsue 002 1 Ence - Steve 4 It Remarks Prepared for Delivery by FUST USTR CHARLENE BARSHEFSKY 5 Desl before the Council on Competitiveness March 20, 1997 It is a pleasure to be with you tonight. As I look around the room I see many of you who were instrumental in developing the partnerships that made the ITA and telecom agreements possible. These two agreements will unlock billions in new opportunities for U.S. companies and encompass the hardware, software, services and infrastructure package to dramatically expand the reach of the Information Superhighway around the world. Together these agreements encompass $1.1 billion in global trade. As you know, U.S. technology companies are the most competitive in the world with IT product exports which approached $100 billion in 1996. It is worth noting that our technology exports were up 44% last year. For our companies and the 1.8 million high tech manufacturing workers in the United States, the ITA amounts to a $5 billion annual tax cut because tariff barriers on technology products overseas are $0 much higher than ours. At the end of the day an ITA agreement was possible beause we had the tools -- fast track negotiating authority -- which strengthened our hand. While the ITA was basically a tariff deal we specifically included the ability to go after non-tariff barriers to expand the reach of this deal. We will need further negotiating authority to make more progress. Let's look at the larger picture of U.S. trade We are the strongest and most competitive economy in the world, and expanded trade has played an important role in building our strength. Over the past four years, we have created nearly 12 gurl states million new jobs, while the G-7 combined created roughly 600,000. We are once again the world's largest exporter, setting historic records. Over the last four years, our manufactured pheotox exports are up 42 percent, high technology exports jumped 45 percent, service exports climbed 26 percent, and farm exports rose 40 percent. Along the way, we have negotiated more than 200 trade agreements, all designed to advance our economic and trade interests. We pursued these agreements including GATT and the NAFTA because we recognized that trade is increasingly important to the future of our nation. Trade is now equivalent to nearly 30 percent of our GDP, up from 13 percent in 1970. Exports support an estimated 11.3 million U.S. jobs, and over 1.4 million of these jobs were generated by increased exports over the last four years. Our economic expansion has been investment-led, building the foundation for even greater economic strength. Our industrial production is up nearly 18 percent in real terms over the last four years. Japan's production, by contrast, is up 5 percent and Germany's has declined 2 percent 1 FRI 13:53 FAX 202 395 3911 U.S.T.R 003 over this period. Growth of our industrial capacity is at its highest level since the 1970s. In short, no country in the world is better positioned to take advantage of the enormous opportunities presented by a growing global economy. Our competitors cannot beat us, but we can lose if we put ourselves on the sidelines. The Challenges Ahead None of this is to suggest that we don't face challenges and continuing problems. Too many Americans have been left behind in the current economic expansion, without the skills or education to benefit from the increased opportunities. Neither government nor the private sector should rest while that is the case. But we face a very clear choice. The choice is this: We can recognize that the American economy is the model for the world, and continue to open foreign markets and seize the initiative when it comes to international competition. To do so, we must position ourselves to take advantage of the extraordinary opportunities presented by the growing global economy. This approach also calls for us to recognize that some Americans are being left behind by the global economy. We can face up to this problem by working to put in place education, training. and adjustment policies for workers in need; advancing core labor standards and protecting the environment; and being vigilant to the consequences and potential threat of forced technology transfer in foreign countries. In short, we can start from the proposition that we have been basically on the right track and should stay fully engaged, using all our tools, taking advantage of all opportunities. Or, we can convince ourselves -- against the evidence -- that we are on the wrong track. We can choose our course guided by a picture of economic decline and disinvestment that bears no resemblance to what is happening in our country. We can let ourselves instead bog down in an endless debate over NAFTA and Mexico. We can permit markets to stay closed and let others seize the initiative from us. The choice is that clear. The Threat of Inaction We must recognize the dangers of inaction. In every region of the world, but particularly Asia and Latin America, the two fastest growing regions in the world, governments are pursuing strategic trade policies and preferential trade arrangements, creating trade alliances around us rather than with us and the consequences of disengagement are unacceptably high for our economy, Examples of such new exclusive alliances among our foreign competitors abound: MERCOSUR (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) is a developing customs union with ambitions to expand to all of South America. MERCOSUR has struck agreements with Chile 2 03/21/97 FRI 13:54 FAX 202 395 3911 U.S.T.R 004 and Bolivia, and is discussing agreements with a number of Andean countries (Colombia, Venezuela) as well as countries within the Caribbean Basin. The EU has begun a process aimed at reaching a free trade agreement with MERCOSUR. They have concluded a framework agreement with Chile that is set up to lead to a free trade agreement. The President of France, just in the region, said Latin America's "essential economic interests. lie not with the United States but with Europe." - China has targeted Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela as "strategic priorities" in Latin America to ensure that key Latin countries are receptive to its broader global agenda as a rising power, both in the WTO and other fora. Japan has undertaken high level efforts throughout Asia and Latin America in country after country. Mexico wants to be the commercial hub between North and South America and serve as a venue in which to enter North, Central and South America from Asia and Europe. The cost of inaction is already upon us: o Southwest Bell selected Northern Telecom for a $180 million telecommunications project it has in Chile to avoid paying $20 million in duties that if it had contracted with an American company, thanks to the Chile-Canada free trade agreement. Our Global Trading Agenda We should respond to these global challenges with the full arsenal of trade policy tools at our disposal including "fast track" negotiating authority. What are we looking for? The United States must be positioned at the center of a global constellation of trade activity. To the extent that our trading partners are engaged in the development of exclusive trade relationships around us, that can only mean that our long term strategic interests will suffer around the world -- if we cannot intervene to redirect those alliance in our favor. We have important work ahead of us: Within four years, major WTO negotiations will occur in key areas where the United States is again a top global competitor with much to gain: agriculture, services, and the rules for intellectual property rights. This year we will be resuming WTO negotiations on financial services. In the OECD, WC are in active negotiations over the Multilateral Agreement on Investment to ensure equitable and fair treatment for U.S. investors. With regards to the regional agenda, the United States is committed not only to concluding the FTAA by 2005, but also to concrete progress by 2000. Chile should be our first step in this process. The region views what we do with Chile as a litmus test for our future plans. 3 FRI 13:54 FAX 202 395 3911 U.S.T.R 005 Latin America and the Caribbean were the fastest growing market for U.S. exports in 1996. If trends continue, it will exceed the EU as a destination for U.S. exports by the year 2000, and exceed Japan and the EU combined by the year 2010. It is also the second fastest growing region in the world. With building the FTAA very much in mind, the Administration remains committed to Caribbean Basin Trade Enhancement. The Asia Pacific region contains the fastest growing economies in the world, encompassing nearly 3 billion people. Within APEC, we estimate that reaching the goal of open markets would increase U.S. goods exports alone by 27 percent annually, or almost $50 billion a year. Market-opening agreements with key APEC partners offers the potential to catalyze this process and strengthen U.S. strategic relationships. [With Europe, our focus will be on non-tariff barriers which continue to impede transatlantic commerce, especially regulatory barriers and agricultural impediments. ] Africa is a region rich in resources and potential, which we should engage with determination to ensure its effective and sustainable development and democratic governance. There is no substitute for our ability to implement comprehensive trade agreements. The absence of agreed procedural authority is the single most important factor limiting our capacity at this time to open markets. Such authority is a prerequisite to U.S. negotiating credibility and success on major trade fronts. Trade, Labor, and the Environment We can no longer allow our disagreements over the relationship between trade, labor standards and environmental protection to prevent us from granting the President fast track authority. It is important to recognize that a commitment to protection of core labor standards and their relationship to trade, is not new, nor is it unique to the United States. Advancing worker rights and labor standards is in our national interest and it is consistent with our deepest national values. Conclusion I want to thank all of you in this room for making helping us achieve the very important agreements we reached on IT products and telecommunications. But I want to caution you that those agreements are not an end but a beginning. The one lesson that we cannot afford to forget is that if the United States is not leading the fight -- as we did with ITA and telecom -- these agreements cannot happen. With the emergence of exclusive trade alliances around us, we must continue our fight to eliminate foreign trade barriers. I look forward to your continuing 4 03/21/97 FRI 13:54 FAX 202 395 3911 U.S.T.R 006 engagement as we seek other sectoral trade pacts, and assure that the United States is always at the center of a constellation of regional trade alliances whether they are in Asia or our own hemisphere. Thank you. 5 TO: CIRCULATION FR: WALDMAN RE: Redraft of fast-track section 10am For fifty years, America has led the world not only in building security but in promoting prosperity. Now we must choose whether to continue to shape the international economy so that it works for all our people -- or shrink from its challenges. The rapidly growing and ever changing global economy is an inescapable fact of our time. Over the past 50 years, global trade has increased 90-fold. Over the next decade, it is expected to grow at three times the rate of the U.S. economy. Nations once divided by great gulfs of geography and military rivalry are now linked by surging currents of commerce. This world marketplace poses stiff challenges. It means constant change for our nation and for our people. But it offers us the greatest opportunity for prosperity we have known. Today, America stands alone as the world's strongest and most competitive economy. Our exports have surged to record levels. Our budget deficit is now the smallest as a share of income of any major economy. Basic American industries have revived; our auto industry is number one in the world again for the first time since the 1970s. And from semiconductors to biotech to Hollywood, American firms lead the industries that are remaking the world. We are uniquely well-positioned to make the most of this new economic era. But in a world where America has only 5% of the population -- where the fastest growing markets for our goods and services are in Asia and Latin America -- where export related jobs pay 17% more than other American jobs we have only one choice: we must export. To do that, we must have higher skills, stronger productivity, deeper investment. We must balance the budget. We must give our people the best education in the world, establishing national school standards to enable us to compete internationally, opening the doors of college, and passing my GI Bill for workers, which gives every unemployed and underemployed worker a skills grant that can be used to obtain the training he or she needs. We must continue to expand research and development in the public and private sector. And at every opportunity, we must press forward in our struggle for open and competitive trade. My administration has concluded more than 200 trade agreements, each of which opened someone else's markets wider to American business. We fought for enactment of NAFTA, creating a free market with our neighbors -- and today, despite the peso crisis, our exports to Mexico are up TK over pre-NAFTA levels. We broke seven years of global gridlock and successfully negotiated the new round of GATT, creating the World Trade Organization which has lowered average tariffs on U.S. goods around the world by one-third. We have broken down barriers and boosted exports to Japan -- up 40 percent since 1993, and 85 percent in sectors like medical supplies and auto parts where we have won trade agreements. This is a record to build on, not to rest on. History teaches us that when the momentum for open markets falters, the world can easily slide backward. It is unacceptable for us to go backward. It is unacceptable for us to stand still. It is unacceptable for us to sit on the sidelines while other nations forge bonds of trade. This is a critical moment for us to forge our future, and we must move to seize it. American leadership created the prosperity of the past 50 years. Now only American leadership can create prosperity -- for our people and for all the world -- in the next 50 years. And America cannot lead if America -- and its leaders -- cannot act. Every American President since 1974, Democrat and Republican alike, has had the authority to negotiate new trade agreements. That fast track negotiating authority, every time, has been extended with the support of Members of Congress of both parties. That is how America has exercised its most fundamental leadeship of the world economy. So today I am renewing my call to Congress to give me fast track authority to negotiate new trade agreements -- trade agreements that will create opportunities for our workers and our businesses in the global economy -- and do it this year. We have seen in the past six months what a strong trade agreement can bring to our people and businesses. The International Telecommunications Agreement that we reached with 38 other nations in December will eliminate tarrifs and unshackle trade on $500 billion of trade in computers, semiconductors and telecommunications -- the high-tech sectors of the future in which America already leads the way. This amounts to a $5 billion cut in tariffs on American products exported to other nations. Now, if Congress grants fast track authority, I can use it to open trade in the areas where American firms are leading and America's future lies. We lead the world in high technology; in years to come, we must press to tear down barriers around the world that keep out American products such as computer software, medical equipment, and environmental technology. We lead the world in agricultural exports; we must negotiate trade agreements to open even more markets to our produce. We will follow through on the agreement we forged at the Summit of the Americas in Miami, to build a Free Trade Area of the Americas by the Year 2005. We will press aggressively to open markets to our products in Asia as well. And if we do not seize the vast opportunities offered by the rising regions of the world, our competitors will. Last year, Latin American nations had more trade with Europe than with the United States. There is no reason to think that these nations will wait for us to move forward. These nations are our neighbors; they are our partners; and we would be foolish to let this opportunity pass us by. All this expanded trade will enable us to create more jobs through higher exports. It will help us to protect the 11 million jobs that are already dependent on trade. This is not about whether we will open our markets to the world: They already are. It is about whether the world will continue to open its markets to us. By opening the world's markets, we help the standard of living grow everywhere. That's the right thing to do. And it also helps turn the world's poor nations from being a threat to international stability into a market for our goods and services. I am determined that the new trade agreements we seek will be good for working people and for the environment, here and around the globe. I have asked the U.S. Trade Representative, Ambassador Charlene Barshefsky, to work with members of Congress of both parties, with labor and business and environmentalists, to try to reach consensus on these issues. But let me be clear: We cannot shrink from the challenge of the global economy. America is the most competitive nation in the world. And I am certain that American workers and businesses, given the chance, can outcompete anyone, anywhere in the world. I call on the Congress to work with me to let them do just that. The question we face is as old as our country. Whether to turn inward or reach outward, whether to fear change or embrace it. Over the past fifty years -- and over the past four years -- we made the choice that has always served America best. Now [WE MUST -- AND WILL -- CONCLUDE THIS SPEECH IN ONE PARAGRAPH] X Stin Need to 1A vision - Tie to Chan leve speed or trade See MArk Rest Tomy BEni THE WHITE HOUSE w Emic Drd discuss 1 WASHINGTON how to tack a boot 3 7rst Trad 29 torde issues And Resl + discuss U Lyle FAST TRACK on l Air truds. WHITE HOUSE DISTRIBUTION LIST ERSKINE BOWLES 1st Flr; WW 456-6797 SANDY BERGER 1st Flr; WW 456-9481 GENE SPERLING 2nd Flr; WW 456-5804 DAN TARULLO Rm 231 OEOB 456-5355 MACK McLARTY Grd Flr; WW 456-2000 FRANK RAINES Rm 252 OEOB 456-4840 JOHN HILLEY 2nd Flr; WW 456-2230 MIKE McCURRY 1st Flr; WW 456-2673 DOUG SOSNICK 1st Flr; WW 456-1912 VICTORIA RADD Grd Flr; WW 456-6797 KATIE McGINTY Rm 360 OEOB 456-6224 KITTY HIGGINS 2nd Flr; WW 456-2572 MARCIA HALE 2nd Flr; WW 456-7060 LEON FUERTH Rm 298 OEOB 456-9501 SUSAN BROPHY 2nd Flr; WW 456-2230 MARIA ECHAVESTE Rm 117 OEOB 456-2930 JOE MINARIK Rm 244 OEOB 395-5873 DON KERRICK Situation Room 456-9461 TONY BLINKEN Rm 331 OEOB 456-9371 DAVID LEAVY Rm 331 OEOB 456-9371 ANNE LUZZATO Rm 487 OEOB 456-9271 BILL DANVERS Rm 365 OEOB 456-9171 WILL DAVIS Rm 365 OEOB 456-9171 April 23, 1997 FROM: BOB KYLE SUBJECT: Fast Track Attached please find a document USTR and I prepared setting forth the Administration's main message on Fast Track. I will distribute it to relevant agencies as well. I hope you will find it useful as we continue this effort. Attachment FAST TRACK MAIN MESSAGE NOW, MORE THAN EVER, THE U.S. NEEDS AUTHORITY TO OPEN NEW MARKETS AND BREAK DOWN BARRIERS TO U.S. EXPORTS. Trade negotiating authority is essential. Every President since Ford has had fast track authority for key periods with bipartisan support. That is because Congress has consistently recognized the President must have the authority to break down foreign trade barriers and create good jobs. Fast track authority is even more essential today. The rapidly expanding global economy presents enormous opportunities for our companies and workers. Over the next decade, the Very global economy is expected to grow at three times the rate of the U.S. economy. Growth will be good particularly powerful in the emerging markets - the fastest growing markets of the world. Our BASIC economic future will increasingly rest on tapping into these global opportunities. In a world points F where over 95 percent of the world's consumers live outside the United States, we must export to sustain economic growth at home. Commercial competitiveness is critical to our global leadership. Europe, China, Japan and Compon others are forging preferential commercial alliances with emerging markets, which put American exports at a disadvantage. Those trade alliances also play a vital role in defining strategic yoe competitor relationships between countries and regions. Our commercial competitiveness is at stake, but so is our leadership role in the world. esems percripate Exports create American jobs. Today, more than 11 million American jobs are supported by very exports, including one in five manufacturing jobs - good jobs, paying 13-16 percent more than income good non-trade-related jobs. Over the last four years one-quarter of our economic growth came from growt Basic Points trade -- and exports created 1.4 million new jobs. If we are to raise our standard of living, we point must continue creating jobs through exports. THE U.S. IS PERFECTLY POSITIONED TO SEIZE THESE OPPORTUNITIES. The United States is the world's strongest competitor. We have enjoyed the longest period of sustained growth of all of our G-7 partners. Over the last four years, we have created 12 million new jobs, more than all of the other G-7 countries combined. We have the lowest budget deficit as a percent of GDP of all the G-7 nations. We are once again the world's largest exporter, the largest producer of semiconductors, the largest producer of automobiles. Over the last four years, our manufactured exports are up 42%, high technology exports jumped 46%, service exports climbed 26% and farm exports rose 43%. Independent studies, including the Institute for Management Development in Switzerland, have found America to be the most competitive economy in the world for the past five years. No country in the world is better positioned to compete. 2 Our market is already open. Others are not. The United States is the most open, major market in the world. When we reach trade agreements, we give up very little, while other countries give up far more. When the Uruguay Round is phased in, our tariffs will average 2.8 percent. Other countries are far higher: India (31%); Thailand and Turkey (26%); Chile and Indonesia (11%). It is not difficult to see that these deals make sense. It is difficult to understand why we should let these barriers stand. THE POTENTIAL GAINS ARE GREAT, IF WE SEIZE THEM. Multilateral. For over 50 years, the U.S. has led the world in opening global markets. Our persistent leadership has helped bring global tariffs down from an average of 40 percent at the end of World War II to about 5 percent today, leading to a 90-fold increase in global trade. We can continue that progress today. Because of our leadership, new WTO negotiations present the opportunity to reduce trade barriers further in key sectors, such as: Agriculture: Negotiations to cut barriers in the $526 billion global agriculture market will attack such practices as export subsidies and domestic support programs. Services: A $1.2 trillion global market - where U.S. firms exported more than $220 billion in 1996 with a surplus of $74 billion. Talks will address a wide range of service sectors including health care, education, entertainment, tourism, business consulting and advertising. Global negotiations will address other key areas like intellectual property, customs and government procurement rules. Talks in the OECD will ensure fair treatment for U.S. investors. Sectoral. We would also use fast track to negotiate agreements in sectors where the U.S. is most competitive. The recent Information Technology Agreement, for example, eliminated tariffs and unshackled $500 billion of trade in semiconductors, computers, telecommunications equipment and software, amounting to a $5 billion tax cut in tariffs on American exports. With fast track authority, we can tear down more barriers in areas like medical equipment, environmental technology, and computer software, areas where America leads the world. Regional. Continuing regional initiatives present vast opportunities. Latin America and the Caribbean. This area was the fastest growing market for U.S. exports in 1996. If trends continue, Latin America and the Caribbean will exceed the EU as a destination for U.S. exports by 2000 and exceed Japan and the EU combined by 2010. We remain committed to conclude the Free Trade Area of the Americas by 2005. Chile would be our first step in this process. 3 Asia. Contains the fastest growing economies in the world, with nearly 3 billion people. Independent forecasters put 1996 GDP for the region at $2.8 trillion and expect real growth of 6% to 7% annually for the next 15 years. We will also continue efforts with Europe, Africa and other regions. IF WE DON'T ACT, OUR COMPETITORS WILL. Other countries are breaking down barriers for their companies and workers. We talk a lot about leveling the playing field, but our competitors are leveling the field, while we sit on the sidelines. Since 1992, our competitors have negotiated 20 regional trade pacts in Asia and the Western Hemisphere. In every region of the world, this process will continue. MERCOSUR is a developing customs union with ambitions to expand to all of South America; the EU has begun a process to reach free trade with MERCOSUR (President Chirac recently declared "the future of the region rests with Europe, not the United States"); China's "strategic priorities" include Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela; Japan has undertaken high-level efforts in Asia and Latin America. Five years ago, the question was whether countries would reach regional trading agreements. Today, the only question is whether the U.S. will be part of that process - or whether it will sit on the sidelines. The costs of inaction are high. For example, Canada has reached a free trade agreement with Chile that will eliminate Canada's across-the-board 11 percent tariff for Canadian products. Every time an American company competes to sell to Chile, it will face an immediate 11 percent cost disadvantage vis-a-vis its Canadian competitors. The costs are already being felt. Canada's Northern Telecom just won a $180 million telecommunications contract over three U.S. companies in part because it could avoid paying $20 million worth of duties. AS WE DEVELOP A FAST TRACK BILL, WE MUST DEVELOP A BIPARTISAN APPROACH TO THE ISSUES OF LABOR AND THE ENVIRONMENT. ven sind We must address these issues. ecannot sustain support among American people for market opening policies without also addressing concerns about the effects of these agreements on labor Need to and the environment. That is also necessary to build a bipartisan coalition for passage. The Understand President has asked Ambassador Barshefsky to consult with both parties in Congress -- and the relevant interest groups -- to develop a bipartisan consensus. That process continues. charles points Sitting on the sidelines does not help workers or promote a cleaner environment. Opening rd foreign markets does not mean retreating from our commitment to labor and the environment. fact, it makes it easier to engage these countries on these issues. Denying the President authority to negotiate trade agreements with them will not help advance their labor or environmental protections. It will simply make it more likely that these countries will remain relatively poor (keeping wages low and discouraging better environmental practices), while crippling our export performance and denying job growth here at home. 4 WE FACE A CRITICAL CHOICE: WHETHER TO SEIZE THE INITIATIVE OR HAVE OTHERS SEIZE IT FROM US. The choice is clear. We can recognize that the American economy is the model for the world, continue to open foreign markets and seize the initiative when it comes to international good Spart competition. Or we can convince ourselves - against the evidence - that we are on the wrong track, that we cannot succeed and that we should not move forward. Four years from now, we will either proudly recognize that we saw our opportunities and we took them. Or, we will have become paralyzed by indecision, squandered our strong competitive advantage and let others seize the initiative. The choice is that clear - and that important. very good, calcha close hylel SAMULL MAr 3/97 Does / her John 01 Bryad 5 kce Charles Textile - Capitor I CAME Bacl How do this Apparel Union - was to stateh togethe relate to Unite - lady Sanmet wales Apparel Fubric industry yani Apparec supplis Before NA7TA Expats to MXICO / mut AAMA Apprec 3 split mf9 will Like CBI part Like postibe milliker: As. Appare 19. M,Cnle view rather CAme HAVE Minimaz Bewefits to CAme = free Trade instead Need to GAWS - program IN place 15% duty Better Helpful 5.6% -0- - duty USTN 2 step. (over) 2 NA7TA n Ascession W trinsitis 7MAA Consolidate Group As a group IN 7TAA possibly USM } IN Budut truble Bin w Les. pax } 2 whs 5.4 rs. =6 GRS Below Biccos 1.3 BILLION total micross Peta Believesit is $ 700, 000 in 54.. hisher Specin rules of risid U.S. your U.S pieces Etpals to courtr., M growing trade overan improt OU joBS /Treasun Ecosoric realit protice per Venle } privote Secta revelus Trees \ Newc, qualified CBI Exp-13 T Fl, Seladre * CUT Bad textile Guota That d. No. grabb CBI Exhart BALAU owned 1 Lw 3 1984 Assers to U.S. anlets tan.H rtr $ Encourge I Exp-1 3 provide jobs & strbity Peta A/ Lab John H Trade Enhancement NOT party 1 NOT I 7AM EAST rater I is the Carber 2 LABA UNIONS Commities m to Limit 7nbacc from olside the regior Toget Besefts your from Cannibew NOT the for Enst Camel Commition directil institue / C the D U.S. ilabove oigars 2 use your our 3 NO Savi sourciss of Irbus for for Ens. 1 NO side doon SWAR Brd provisions If Expents The too rappids 4 Cr.ter.a Ipr I C.U.T in 1/2 Customs walk n.pt Stic above Evenue procuits Drugs Conniber Basis Trade Ev Lnat ACT 8 yr. 77AA 3un CBI 1984 Reasal Builders -0- "Nud Les In An to stuff in B-dut" per Pek Hopefully IN Next 2 to 3 Weels NOTES AND MEMOS MADE IN MARCH 1997 DATE EACH ITEM DATE EACH ITEM Lade referrives Two Effats Underwn i Apparer representive MILLS pay POTAS division within the Incluse 2 Retaikas / Impater michael 6nk / UNIONS 3 hopes to set Agreement LABA obligations is sewing factor water the region WILLINGUESS to give Sume Jan protect Spectic part CANSENOTS problems pe Lade Countries to Evforce PArtneshp Lo the regiod Host t Slove sewirg juBs protector MILL joBs keep anle Nalusis Some J1B Loss NOT NEARLY as much Regior No pain 154 time L the 75AA 1 regiod Potrs troup ustr/ Ambrissing - And Grat / Ecol Misister / Tuses USTN And d holders By name when U.S. tracks everyone less crotem Potrs + cm El SM. / Jame / 5-84pm MONDAY DIARY AND WORK RECORD 14th Week 90th Day MARCH, 1997 31 HOURS FOR SUBJECT DESCRIPTION OF SERVICES TIME HRS. 1/10 06 12 8 18 24 30 36 42 48 0800 54 12 9 18 24 30 36 42 48 0900 54 06 12 10 18 24 30 36 42 1000 54 12 11 18 24 30 36 42 1100 06 12 12 13 24 30 35 42 1200 54 06 12 1 18 24 30 3C 48 1300 54 DC 12 2 18 31 30 36 :2 48 1400 5-1 O6 12 3 18 24 30 36 42 48 1500 5-1 06 12 4 13 24 30 36 42 48 1600 54 06 12 5 18 24 30 36 42 48 1700 SR. DESK (FOLIO) SIZE TWO PAGE-PER-DAY ORIGINAL IMMEDIATE UNCLASSIFIED WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 01 OF 05 PRT: DOHSE HARMONPTR KERRICK MCLARTY NAPHIN SIT SIT: ARMSTRONG BEDELL CLARKER DESOUZA DOBBINS HARMON NATOLI PASSDOWN PICCONE PYATT SUM SUM2 SIT: NSC <PREC> IMMEDIATE <CLAS> UNCLASSIFIED <DTG> 192143Z FEB 97 FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9393 INFO RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN 0151 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0252 RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC RHLBAAA/USCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS PM UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAN JOSE 000534 1 CBI 70/= Desl Fale E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OVIP (CLINTON, WILLIAM J.), PREL, PGOV, CS SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRIP TO COSTA RICA: THE Trip 726 FIRST ROUND REFS: (A) SAN JOSE 489, (B) SAN JOSE 2319 1. BEGIN SUMMARY: THE GOCR IS TAKING A PROACTIVE APPROACH TO PRESIDENT CLINTON'S VISIT, AS PRESIDENT FIGUERES SEEKS TO ENSURE THAT THE VISIT WILL RESONATE INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. IN ORDER TO DEFLECT POTENTIAL DISAPPOINTMENT AMONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN PRESIDENTS OVER PROBABLE LACK OF PROGRESS IN ACHIEVING FULL CBI 3 5peed ENHANCEMENT, FIGUERES SUGGESTED THE USG PROPOSE A NEW PRIVATE INVESTMENT PROGRAM FOR THE REGION. THE GOCR ALSO WANTS TO CAPITALIZE ON THE TWIN THEMES OF EDUCATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN ORDER TO BUILD A LASTING CLINTON LEGACY Desl IN LATIN AMERICA. END SUMMARY. 2. IN A FEBRUARY 18 MEETING WITH AMBASSADOR AND DCM, PRESIDENT FIGUERES, FOREIGN MINISTER NARANJO, AND LUIS DIEGO ESCALANTE, A PRIVATE BUSINESSMAN WHOM FIGUERES HAS DESIGNATED AS THE GOCR COORDINATOR FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRIP, OUTLINED THEIR PRELIMINARY THINKING CONCERNING PRESIDENT CLINTON'S UPCOMING VISIT TO COSTA RICA. MEETING WITH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN PRESIDENTS WHO 3. THE GOCR ANTICIPATES THAT PRESIDENT CLINTON WILL SPEND APPROXIMATELY A HALF DAY WITH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN UNCLASSIFIED IMMEDIATE UNCLASSIFIED WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 02 OF 05 PRESIDENTS. PRESIDENT FIGURES HAS CONFERRED WITH ALL HIS COUNTERPARTS AND EXPECTS PARTICIPATION TO INCLUDE THE PRESIDENT OF PANAMA AND PRIME MINISTER OF BELIZE. THE PLENARY WOULD BE PRECEDED OR FOLLOWED BY A MEAL, DEPENDING ON THE ITINERARY. WHERE 4. GOCR HAS YET TO DECIDE WHERE IN SAN JOSE THE MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENTS WILL BE HELD. THE FINAL DETERMINATION DEPENDS PARTIALLY ON LOGISTICAL REQUIREMENTS OF THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY AND PRESS. HOWEVER, EFFORTS WILL BE MADE TO INCLUDE SOME HISTORICAL SPOTS, SUCH AS THE NATIONAL THEATER, THE CHILDREN'S MUSEUM, THE NATIONAL HISTORICAL MUSEUM, ETC., AS VENUES FOR SOME OF PRESIDENT CLINTON'S ACTIVITIES. THE REGIONAL AGENDA 5. FOREIGN MINISTER NARANJO IDENTIFIED THREE PROPOSED AGENDA ITEMS WHICH AROSE DURING RECENT DISCUSSION ABOUT THE VISIT WITH HIS COUNTERPARTS IN GUATEMALA: A) CARIBBEAN BASIN INITIATIVE (CBI) ENHANCEMENT WITHOUT QUESTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE CENTRAL AMERICANS. THEY WANT TO SEE FOLLOW-UP ACTION ON PAST PROMISES BY THE VICE PRESIDENT AND OTHER TOP USG OFFICIALS. FEELING SQUEEZED BY EMERGING REGIONAL TRADING BLOCS, INCLUDING NAFTA, THEY VIEW THE VISIT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO ADVANCE FREE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE USG. NARANJO SUGGESTED THE FOREIGN MINISTERS WILL PROPOSE TO THEIR PRESIDENTS THAT CENTRAL AMERICA SEEK A SEPARATE COMMON MARKET ARRANGEMENT WITH THE U.S., A CONCEPT THE AMBASSADOR SOUGHT TO DISCOURAGE, ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF THE DIVERSITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY ECONOMIES. FIGUERES, SENSING THAT NAFTA PARITY WAS NOT IN THE CARDS, PROFERRED THE IDEA THAT THE U.S. PROPOSE A PRIVATE INVESTMENT FUND, AND CHARGE ENRIQUE INGLESTAS AND THE IADB WITH STUDYING THE PROPOSAL, TOGETHER WITH INCAE AND HARVARD PROFESSORS PORTER AND SACHS. FIGUERES WANTS TO MINIMIZE DISILLUSIONMENT ON THE PARITY ISSUE BY THE CREATION OF SUCH AN INVESTMENT PROMOTION PROGRAM WITH THE IDB, A VEHICLE TO INCREASE ACCESS TO MARKETS. HE SUGGESTED THAT THIS BE BROACHED AS A USG PROPOSAL TO STEM THE ALLEGEDLY DEMONSTRABLE FALL IN INVESTMENT SUBSEQUENT TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NAFTA. B) IMMIGRATION: EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA WANT TO RAISE UNCLASSIFIED IMMEDIATE UNCLASSIFIED WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 03 OF 05 THIS ISSUE; THE GOCR DOES NOT SEE IT AS A REGION-WIDE CONCERN. C) ENHANCEMENT AND FORWARD MOVEMENT ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC PORTIONS OF THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT DRAWN UP IN MIAMI WITH A FOCUS ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND TRADE ("MOVE MIAMI FORWARD BY CREATING AN ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCAUSA II"). UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 SAN JOSE 000534 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OVIP (CLINTON, WILLIAM J.), PREL, PGOV, CS SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRIP TO COSTA RICA: THE FIRST ROUND 6. ANOTHER POSSIBLE EVENT MIGHT BE THE JOINT SIGNING OF INDIVIDUAL (OR A REGIONAL) OPEN SKIES AGREEMENTS. BILATERAL PROGRAM: THEMES 7. PRESIDENT FIGUERES SEES PRESIDENT CLINTON'S FOCUS ON THE IMPORTANCE OF EDUCATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT AS TWO THEMES WHICH WOULD BE RECEIVED WELL BOTH IN COSTA RICA AND IN THE US. SOME PRELIMINARY THINKING WHICH WOULD ENABLE PRESIDENT CLINTON TO BE "IN TOUCH WITH PEOPLE" INCLUDE: O A MASS AUDIENCE HIGH TECH INTERNET CONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO PRESIDENTS AND SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN IN BOTH COUNTRIES. OR, A VISIT TO A COMPUTERIZED GRADE SCHOOL PARTICIPATING IN THE GLOBE PROGRAM (WE ENDORSE STRONGLY). O MEETING WITH MEMBERS OF "WORLD TEACH, A GROUP OF AMERICAN VOLUNTEER TEACHERS WHO PAY FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO ASSIST COSTA RICAN COUNTERPARTS IN LIVE CLASSROOM INSTRUCTION. THE CONTINGENT IN COSTA RICA IS THE LARGEST IN THE WORLD. (A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE) O A VISIT TO THE EARTH GRADUATE FACILITY AT GUACIMO WHICH WAS LAUNCHED WITH $116M FROM USAID, HAS 20 NATIONALITY FACULTY AND 30 NATIONALITY STUDENT BODY. EARTH IS CURRENTLY IN ITS SECOND YEAR OF WORK WITH NASA TO STUDY CHAGAS, A DISEASE WHICH HAS CLAIMED 20 MILLION LATIN AMERICAN LIVES. SUCH A VISIT WOULD INCLUDE A MEETING WITH THE ONLY COSTA RICAN-BORN AMERICAN ASTRONAUT, FRANKLIN CHANG. (GOOD IDEA) O A VISIT TO THE LA SELVA BIOLOGICAL STATION: A VIRGIN 3,700 ACRE LOWLAND RAIN FOREST OPERATED BY THE ORGANIZATION FOR TROPICAL STUDIES IN AFFILIATION WITH SOME UNCLASSIFIED iMMEDIATE UNCLASSIFIED WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 04 OF 05 50 U.S. UNIVERSITIES LED BY DUKE UNIVERSITY. IT IS DEVOTED TO PRIMARILY SCIENTIFIC STUDY. LA SELVA HAS A NETWORK OF MARKED TRAILS WHICH IDENTIFY ITS UNUSUALLY RICH BIODIVERSITY. (WE STRONGLY ENDORSE) O VISIT TO IMBIO, A TOP FLIGHT INSTITUTE CATELOGING THE BIODIVERSITY OF COSTA RICA AND ASSISTING OTHER CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES TO DO THE SAME. SCIENTISTS INCLUDE AMERICANS. (IMBIO OFFERS LITTLE TO THE CASUAL VISITOR OTHER THAN A SET OF BUILDINGS -- UNLIKE A VISIT TO LA SELVA.) O A REVIEW OF A PEACE CORPS-ASSISTED PROGRAM WHICH TEACHES STREET CHILDREN HOW TO MAKE HANDICRAFTS FROM SCRAP METAL AND OTHER MATERIALS PLUS ENCOURAGES BASIC ENTREPRENURIAL SKILLS. (WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND) CREATING A LEGACY 8. PRESIDENT FIGUERES ARGUES FORCEFULLY THAT PRESIDENT CLINTON'S VISIT SHOULD BE USED TO CREATE A LASTING LEGACY IN LATIN AMERICA, AKIN TO THE FOND MEMORIES LATIN AMERICANS STILL HAVE OF PRESIDENT KENNEDY (ALLIANCE FOR PROGRESS, PEACE CORPS). BEARING IN MIND THE TWIN THEMES OF EDUCATION AND ENVIRONMENT, FIGUERES RECOMMENDED LAUNCHING INITIATIVES (OTHER THAN THE INVESTMENT SCHEME IN PARA 5A ABOVE) SUCH AS: O DOUBLING THE WAVE BAND WIDTH OF PARABOLIC ANTENNAS AND DEVOTING THE NEW CAPACITY EXCLUSIVELY FOR EDUCATIONAL/INTERNET PURPOSES. IN THE PRESIDENT'S WORDS, "IT IS MUCH CHEAPER TO MOVE INFORMATION THAN PEOPLE." O CONVERTING OFFICIAL BILATERAL DEBT (SOME $360 MILLION) INTO AN EDUCATIONAL FUND FOR PROGRAM OF EXCHANGES BETWEEN SCHOLARS IN THE US AND LATIN AMERICA. (COMMENT: THIS IDEA HAS BEEN FLOATED PREVIOUSLY SEE PARA 3C OF REF B. IT HAS OBSTACLES AS TO FUNDING, BUT THEY COULD BE OVERCOME WITH CREATIVE THINKING.) SITE VISITS 9. IN THE EVENT THE PREIDENT HAS ADDITIONAL TIME FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIITIES OUTSIDE OF SAN JOSE, EXCURSIONS BY HELO TOANY NUMBER OF THE FOLLOWING PLACES (IN ADDITION T POSSIBLE LA SELVA AND EARTH INSTITUTE VISITS): O ARENAL VOLCANO - THIS 1633M VOLCANO, ONE OF THEMOST ACTIVE IN THE WORLD, HAS BEEN ERUPTING SINC 1968 (OR UNCLASSIFIED IMMEDIATE UNCLASSIFIED WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 05 OF 05 NEARBY POAS OR IRAZU--BOTH ARE DORMANT) UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 SAN JOSE 000534 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OVIP (CLINTON, WILLIAM J.), PREL, PGOV, CS SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRIP TO COSTA RICA: THE FIRST ROUND O TORTUGUERO NATIONAL PARK - AN AREA ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST WHICH ABOUNDS WITH WILDLIFE VIEWED FROM A BOAT (MONKEYS, TOUCANS, MACAWS, SLOTHS, ALLIGATORS, ETC.) O CAHUITA NATIONAL PARK - FURTHER SOUTH ON THE ATLANTIC COAST - SNORKELING OPPORTUNITY OFF REEF BY BOAT. O VISIT THE SITE OF THE FUTURE EARTH COUNCIL COMPLEX, THE PRIVATE ENVIRONMENTAL WATCH GROUP HEADED BY MAURICE STRONG TO KEEP TABS ON THE 1992 RTD CONFERENCE FOLLOW-UP (POSSIBLE) OTHER: -- AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE -- RECEPTION OR DINNER -- PRESS CONFERENCE -- U.S. EMBASSY STAFF MEETING -- TOWN MEETING WITH SELECTED COSTA RICANS FROM DIVERSE SECTORS 10. COMMENT: GOCR IS CLEARLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT AND WANTS IT TO RESONATE LONG AFTER HE DEPARTS. WE HAVE ATTEMPTED TO STEER COCR THINKING TOWARDS PRACTICABLE AND REALISTIC SUGGESTI_NS WHILE ENCOURAGING INNOVATIVE SUGGESTIONS. DE vos <^SECT>SECTION: 01 OF 03 <^SSN>0534 <^TOR>970219181141 M2624119 <^SECT>SECTION: 02 OF 03 <^SSN>0534 <^TOR>970219181155 M2624120 <^SECT>SECTION: 03 OF 03 <^SSN>0534 <MSGID> M2624119 UNCLASSIFIED