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To:
Mack McLarty
From:
David Dreyer
Re:
DRAFT Thematic Rendering 1993-1994 Issues
I.
Vision
A.
What has historically made America exceptional is the
promise of progress and prosperity; the belief that
middle class people who worked hard and played by the
rules could raise themselves economically, and pass on
a better life to their children. The reality of
economic progress legitimizes both our democracy and
our economy, and becomes a source of national renewal
and international leadership. The promise of a better
tomorrow has been the inspiration for our journey as a
nation.
B.
While our system has historically risen to the occasion
and overcome great obstacles -- racial division, great
Depression, and World War -- when President Clinton
came to office, the ability of our system to overcome
the obstacles of our day was in doubt. We lost the
promise of middle class life. Our nation was going in
the wrong direction economically. We were turning
inward at a time of great global change. Our society,
rather than coming together, was being pulled apart.
And confidence among our citizens in the ability of our
public institutions to deal with these problems was at
an all time low.
C.
We are beginning to turn that around. The national
government is finally addressing the problems and needs
of average Americans. We are putting our fiscal house
in order. We are raising living standards, and
advancing the values and security of mainstream
communities. And President Clinton -- by fighting for
economic security, health security, personal security,
and a new definition of national security -- is giving
our people the confidence to embrace a new world where
the only constant is change. This is the basis for an
American renewal.
II. Critique: When Bill Clinton came to office, he faced a
situation in the country that was without precedent --
A.
Fiscal House Is Out of Order
1.
We Quadrupled the National Debt which kept
interest rates high, crowded out demands for
capital, and commanded more government money to
service the debt. All of this reduced investment,
productivity, job creation, and the living
standards of the middle class.
1
2.
At the same time we ran up the debt, we failed to
make needed public investments in policies and
ideas that make us strong.
3.
Fiscal failures deprived us of leverage with our
international trading partners, made us unable to
coordinate economies for growth or to reduce trade
barriers to American exports.
4.
Compromised the faith of the American people to
manage our finances.
B.
The Middle Class Is Losing Ground
1.
For two decades, most people worked harder for
less. Seemingly secure jobs were lost. Along
with declining wages, people lost the security of
stable and reliable health insurance. Two earners
per family were required to stabilize family
income.
2.
While America is now the most productive nation on
earth, this productivity itself contains the seeds
of further insecurity, because it means fewer
people are required to produce as much or more
goods and services.
3.
That means you must export more and find more open
markets. But the lesson of the last decade was
that Americans had reason to fear rather than
embrace the global economy.
4.
The loss of manufacturing jobs, in particular, cut
off the ladder of opportunity for working poor to
move into the middle class, thus contributing to
social upheaval.
C.
Social Upheaval
1.
Family breakdown, unwed mothers and broken homes
at levels without precedent.
2.
Loss of jobs in urban centers as manufacturing
left American shores.
3.
All successful societies are organized around
family and work, and if you have to do without
both, you have a truly chaotic situation. In
communities devastated by poverty and despair, the
vacuum created by the absence of work and the
decline of community institutions has been filled
by the alternatives of crime, violence and drugs.
4.
Social breakdown adds to the feelings of the
middle class that nothing works: Streets are
unsafe, kids are not safe, schools do not work,
there are not opportunities for training, they can
lose their health care.
5.
Overall condition of meanness and surliness in
society leads to conditions of intolerance,
rejection of immigrants.
2
E.
Advent of Global Economy
1.
At the same time, the global economy, with its
promise and perils, is now the central face of
life for hardworking Americans. It creates
winners and losers here at home.
2.
Minimal job creation, growth differential, slows
demand for US exports and shows need for
international coordination.
3.
Foreign corporations have competitive edge with
more government investment in skills, and lower
cost of health care for employees
4.
The new global economy creates insecurities for
Americans and tempts us to turn inward. This is
the wrong reaction -- it will make us poorer and
less able to deal with change.
5.
We must persuade Americans that self-interest has
now replaced self-defense as the rationale for our
engagement in the world. Economic
internationalism will make us richer, and safer.
Free markets create middle classes, and middle
classes are forces for tolerance, openness,
liberty and democracy in societies -- and these
forces make nations more stable.
F.
Changing Definition of National Security
1.
Emergence of the global economy comes at the end
of the Cold War, and that means we must put
international economics at the center of our
foreign policy.
2.
We are now summoned to organize the world in ways
that promote stability, democracy, safety from
nuclear proliferation and environmental hazards
without the organizing rigors of the Cold War.
3.
Ethnic and national aspirations are resurgent
4.
Economically, the downsizing of the defense
establishment is costing jobs. While on one hand
we have nuclear peace, an entrepreneurial boom,
and a demand for political openness, the end of
the Cold War and the new global economy has
created insecurity among people who fear that
forces outside of their control will rob them of
their livelihoods.
5.
Just as self-defense motivated American foreign
policy during the Cold War, self-interest must
underlie our policy in the post-Cold War.
F.
Lost Confidence In Public Institutions
1.
All of these changes come at a time when citizen
confidence in our public institutions are at
record lows.
2.
Government has lost touch with the middle class.
3
3.
Government fails to provide honest value for hard-
earned tax dollars.
4.
Narrow interests prevail over the national
interest.
5.
Politics and gridlock prevent progress.
6.
Government cannot pursue the common good.
G.
Call for Action -- We have taken important steps.
There is much more to do.
1.
Our problems were not created overnight, and they
cannot be solved overnight. But President Clinton
responded immediately with action.
2.
Moved quickly to put our fiscal house in order.
3.
Restored the interests of the middle class to the
center of the public debate.
4.
Began dealing with social breakdown.
5.
Urged America to compete, not retreat in the face
of the global economy.
6.
Redefined national security
7.
Began Restoring Confidence in Government
III. What We Accomplished - We said we would and we did it.
A.
Put Our Fiscal House In Order
1.
Cut spending in 342 separate accounts of the
Federal budget. We cut $255 billion in spending
over five years. Discretionary spending was cut
twelve percent. Through the Vice President's REGO
project, we are cutting the federal workforce by
250,000, largely through attrition, and reforming
the way we procure goods and services for the
Federal government.
2.
We reversed trickle-down economics. We asked the
top 1.2 percent of Americans to pay higher incomes
taxes, and middle income Americans to pay a modest
4.3 cent gasoline tax which, along with some
higher corporate taxes, completed our effort to
put together a $500 billion net deficit reduction
package.
3.
We persuaded the financial markets and our foreign
allies that we were real:
a.
Progress on interest rates, inflation, job
creation, housing starts, consumer
confidence, business investment, auto sales,
and durable goods. This is a real recovery.
b.
It also persuaded our allies we were serious
about putting our house in order, and gave
the President leverage on issues ranging from
macroeconomic coordination to trade barrier
reduction, e.g. successful G-7 meeting in
4
Japan, successful APEC conference, and
successful conclusion of the GATT deal.
B.
Began Making the Economy Work for Middle Class
1.
Economic progress helped them in home
refinancings, creation of jobs, and reduction of
interest and inflation rates.
2.
Clinton economic program contained specific
measures to create jobs and growth:
a.
small business expensing and ITC.
b.
credit crunch for access to capital
C.
defense conversion and technology
reinvestment project
d.
Clinton budget funds 70% of investments for
children, students, workers, and jobs.
e.
Student loan reform
f.
Family and Medical Leave
C.
Began Dealing With Social Breakdown
1.
Passage of Brady Bill
2.
Passage of initiatives to reward work and families
a.
EITC
b.
Family Preservation Act
C.
WIC and Immunization Investments
d.
Empowerment Zones
3.
National service, giving 20,000 people a chance to
work next year, in distressed areas, sparking a
new sense of civic responsibility and opportunity
in the communities in which they work.
D.
Began Embracing the Global Economy
1.
NAFTA
2.
GATT
3.
National Export Strategy
4.
Japan Framework at Tokyo G-7
E.
Began Redefining National Security
1.
Aiding the Russian reform experiment, and
assisting the dismantling of the nuclear arsenals.
2.
Fighting for Democracy in places like Guatemala
and Haiti.
3.
Assisting the peace process in the Middle East.
4.
New policies to stem illegal immigration and drug
trafficking. Protect global environment and
prevent proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.
F.
Began Restoring the Public Trust and Restoring Our
Democracy
5
1.
Motor Voter
2.
Reinventing Government
3.
FEMA-Midwest Floods and California Fires
4.
First time in 60 years no Presidential vetoes.
5.
Where bipartisanship was possible, we did great
things: National Service, NAFTA, Family and
Medical Leave, and relief for the Midwestern
Floods.
IV.
1994 Agenda - Protecting the Economic Recovery and
continuing the progress we have made; resisting efforts by
narrow interests to backtrack; focusing on jobs and the
security agenda; and supporting the President's efforts to
speak to America's most profound values and ideals.
A.
Fiscal Responsibility
1.
We will fulfill our commitments under the 1993
Budget and Economic Growth Plan to keep faith with
the American people and control spending.
2.
1995 Budget maintains the caps, continues the
largest downsizing of the Federal workforce in
history, includes 214 of 237 recommendations for
reinventing government, and asks Congress for new
reforms in the procurement process.
3.
The biggest advance Congress can make to control
spending is passage of Health Care Reform.
4.
Most important thing is to protect the recovery.
We will resist policies of contraction; we will
resist changes in the economic plan that produced
growth; we will resist fiscal changes that make
health care reform impossible; we will resist
gimmicks like the Balanced Budget Amendment.
5.
Ideas like the President's Modified Line Item Veto
should move forward. We will consider
recommendations by the Kerrey Commission
consistent with our principles.
B.
Economic Security - Ideas to create jobs, lift incomes
and improve skills so that people will have the
courage, confidence and the ability to embrace change.
1.
Jobs agenda.
a.
Continue recovery
b.
Clean Water Act.
C.
National highway system.
d.
High speed rail.
e.
Housing authorization.
f.
National information highway
g.
Telecommunications Reform.
h.
Defense Conversion
i.
Reform of OSHA
2.
Job Training and Dislocated Workers
6
a.
Change unemployment system to reemployment
b.
Extended unemployment and dislocated workers
3.
New Economic Security Through a Continuing
Capacity to learn.
a.
School to Work/Apprenticeships
b.
Training and job location
4.
Invest in the Skills of our Students/Goals 2000
5.
Reforming Welfare
a.
Empowerment Zones
b.
EITC
C.
State Waivers
D.
Task Force Hard At Work
E.
Call for Bipartisanship
F.
(Note POTUS Promised Reform in 1993)
6.
International Economics
a.
GATT
b.
Japan Framework
C.
Western Hemispheric Summit
d.
Fall APEC
e.
G-7 In Italy
C.
HEALTH SECURITY
1.
Congress should not take summer vacation without
passing a comprehensive health care bill that
provides universal coverage and benefits that can
never be taken away.
2.
Let's work out particulars on a bipartisan basis,
within the principles laid out during September
22, 1993 speech.
3.
This is about virtually everything we talk about -
- fiscal house in order, middle class, social
breakdown, global economy and trust in government.
D.
PERSONAL SECURITY
1.
Finish the Crime Bill
2.
What can be done about violence - moral dimension
E.
Redefining National Security
1.
Defense. Maintain a margin for safety, keep our
security commitments, respond to post-Cold War
threats, and maintain dual use technology for
strong civilian and defense industrial base. As
always, security depends on the quality of our
people: we have the finest.
2.
Reform foreign aid -- democracy, non-
proliferation, environmental preservation, free
markets.
3.
A new partnership for peace that will draw the
Central and Eastern European countries toward our
community of security. This will help us build a
7
stable environment in which the new democracies
and free markets of Eastern and Central Europe and
the former USSR can flourish.
4.
Fighting backlash States like North Korea and
Libya. Urging China to comply with human rights
and non-proliferation policies to ensure
maintenance of MFN status. Russia
Denuclearization.
F.
Foster trust in government.
1.
Finish Lobbying Reform
2.
Finish campaign finance reform
3.
Finish Procurement reform
G.
QUESTION MARKS
1.
IMMIGRATION REFORM MUST BE INCORPORATED. HOW?
2.
WHERE TO TREAT ENVIRONMENT ISSUES? SUPERFUND.
RCRA, SAFE DRINKING WATER. CLEAN WATER ACT.
WESTERN ISSUES.
V.
Conclusion
The national government is finally addressing the problems
and needs of average Americans. We are putting our fiscal
house in order. We are raising living standards, and
advancing the values and security of mainstream communities.
And President Clinton -- by fighting for economic security,
health security, personal security, and a new definition of
national security -- is giving our people the confidence to
embrace a new world where the only constant is change. This
is our journey; it is the basis for an American renewal.
8
MAJOR THEMES OF FY 1995 BUDGET
MAINTAINING BUDGET DISCIPLINE
o The FY 1995 budget will stick to the spending caps freezing spending at FY 1993
levels put in place by this year's reconciliation bill. By sticking to the caps, and with
other deficit reduction provided by the reconciliation bill, the deficit will drop from
an estimated $250 billion in FY 1994 to below $200 billion in FY 1995 (note: last
year the deficit for FY 1995 was projected to be $301 billion).
MAJOR CUTS
o Agriculture: -$1.0 billion
o Energy: -$1.5 billion
o 9 of 14 major agencies are cut below the FY 1994 enacted level
o
Number of programs cut below FY 1994 levels: 219
o Number of programs frozen at FY 1994 levels: 142
o 100,000 personnel reduction by the end of FY 1995
MAJOR INVESTMENTS
Substantial investments are made in the following areas:
o Health
0 Crime
o Jobs
o Children
o Technology
o International Affairs
o Trade
o National Security
Attached is a very preliminary summary of the major investment programs.
MAJOR THEMES OF FY 1995 BUDGET
Budget Authority
Delta 1995
1993
1994
1995
Over 1994
HEALTH
Total Investment: +2.932 billion
Comprehensive health care reform providing universal
access is fully paid for outside the discretionary totals being
discussed. The following health initiatives fall within these totals.
Ryan White
348
579
672
+93
Immunizations (including vaccine purchase)
341
528
918
+390
Drugs*
12,102
12,069
13,432
+1,363
NIH
10,326
10,956
11,473
+517
Environment
4,584
4,724
5,293
+569
CRIME
Total Investment: +3.059 billion
The FY 1995 budget will parallel the $22 billion 5 year funding
of the Senate crime bill providing 100,000 cops, immigration
enforcement, boot camps, Brady bill funding and drug courts.
Crime Bill
183
63
2,423
+2,360
Prisons
2012
2263
2766
+503
FBI and DEA
2604
2761
2817
+56
INS
978
1049
1138
+89
U.S. Attorneys
1295
1329
1380
+51
JOBS
Total Investment: +3.175 billion
Dislocated Workers
651
1,118
1,465
+347
Highways
18,157
19,725
20,088
+363
Job Corps
966
1,040
1.,183
+143
Community Dev. Banks
104
+104
Mass Transit
898
1613
2330
+717
Small Business Development
347
195
325
+130
EDA
332
351
391
+40
One Stop Career Shopping
50
250
+200
Clean Water
1,944
1,839
2,300
+461
New Community Development
500
+500
Empowerment Zones (housing subsidies)
170
+170
CHILDREN
Total Investment: +2.891 billion
Head Start
2,776
3,326
4,026
+700
Goals 2000
105
700
+595
Chapter 1
6,709
6,924
7,579
+655
National Service
575
862
+287
WIC
2,860
3,210
3,564
+354
School to Work
50
150
+100
*double counts investments in crime and health
MAJOR THEMES OF FY 1995 BUDGET
Budget Authority
Delta 1995
1993
1994
1995
Over 1994
TECHNOLOGY
Total Investment: + +1.423 billion
NIST
381
520
935
+415
ARPA (DOD)
472
474
575
+101
Aeronautics (NASA)
242
286
357
+71
NSF
2,700
2,901
3,090
+ +189
Information Highway
26
78
+52
Energy Research
981
1,366
1,961
+595
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Total Investment: +665 million
Environment
292
450
+158
Population Assistance
502
585
+83
Multilateral Development Banks
1,478
1,902
+424
TRADE
Total Investment: +104 million
OPIC
17
19
+2
Trade and Development Agency
40
42
+2
IMF
0
100
+100
Exim
700
700
NATIONAL SECURITY
Total Investment: +1.7 billion
Department of Defense (in billions)
250.6
252.2
+1.7
1
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
Internal Transcript
December 22, 1993
TRANSCRIPT OF MEETING ON
STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH
The Oval Office
4:40 P.M. EST
MR. GEARAN: The purpose of this meeting is to go through
plans for the State of the Union address; go through the time line of
what we suggest for the preparation, how we would suggest laying it
out, and then to get some feedback, early feedback, you might have on
thoughts on how we're going to prepare and any ideas you might have.
THE PRESIDENT: Did you get the note I sent you from Mary Hill
from Concord, New Hampshire? The one that runs a little store in
Concord? "In your State of the Union challenge us to do this, not
that; this, not that; this, not that. About 20 things in her little
hand-written --
MR. GEARAN: Well, David will outline this, but part of the
plan is to ask an awful lot of people for ideas. We had thought of
Arthur Schlesinger. But Mary Hill wasn't on -- (laughter) --
THE PRESIDENT: -- sits in the grocery store all day in New
Hampshire watching C-Span. All of a sudden, we're affecting real
people.
MR. GEARAN: This is the time line that we've been talking
about. Over Christmas you'll see all the past State of the Union
addresses of the first year of several of the former Presidents; memos
on ideas that David and Jody have been working together for next year,
a legislative outline; outside submissions -- this is Schlesinger,
McCullough, all that stuff.
THE PRESIDENT: We ought to go back to a lot of those people -
- Santel, all those people that were a part of our meeting.
MR. PODESTA: The other thing we'll do is kind of canvas the
Cabinet as well.
2
MR. GEARAN: White House staff and Cabinet. John has sent out
a memo to the Cabinet members asking for specific ideas.
THE PRESIDENT: I think that's important.
MR. GEARAN: That can be forwarded to you over New Year's if
you want to receive it down there.
When we get back on the 4th we'll have a quick meeting to see
if you have any reaction to any of this stuff. On the 6th you' get
a preliminary either extended outline or, in fact, a draft.
THE PRESIDENT: That I can take with me?
MR. GEARAN: Well, hopefully that you could react to on the
7th. So there's some guidance during the course of your trip. You
get back the 16th, but assuming fatigue and everything, by the 19th or
20th then we could meet --
THE PRESIDENT: Fatigue?
THE VICE PRESIDENT: Unknown.
MR. GEARAN: So then we could go through final editing.
THE PRESIDENT: I like the time frame; I think it's fine.
MR. GERGEN: Mr. President, I think we need one person to take
charge of the day to day, pulling this together and making sure it all
happens, to get the pieces in. David Dreyer has prepared this
outline. I think David ought to be -- Mack and I have talked about
this -- if he could run this on a day to day basis right through the
process, probably work with the principal draft as well as
participating on the draft. He worked with Jeremy on the health care
draft those last couple days. It worked out very well. I think it's
good to have him do that.
Jody has already been working with him on some aspects of
this. I know a lot of other players are going to have views on it and
will be able to participate through that. Mack has asked me to sort
of assume some sort of an overview, help look after the process as we
go through, which I am delighted to do. But I think David is the best
candidate to do this.
Not at this session, but we'd like to have a chance sometime
to talk a little bit about drafter, the writer and how we can get
that. But we can do that another time. But David has already started
on this. If you want to talk about people we talked about and the
process.
3
MR. DREYER: I've been on the phone today -- I spoke to
Professor Carter. I have some other folks who George recommended --
Steve Carter out of Yale. So I have a sense of the people who were at
that meeting. What I'm asking them to do is to send us a memorandum
addressed to you before next Thursday when you go to Hilton Head that
talks about the master narrative for the speech -where we are, a
sense of history -- understanding that they're not aware of the budget
priorities that are going to be driving some of the policies within
the speech; some of the larger themes that they
think ought to be addressed by you in the speech.
You have an opportunity to see that. The senior staff would
have an opportunity to see that, and from that we would work off an
outline, and then the crude drafting would be given on the 6th of
January.
MR. GERGEN: And the people we're talking about we would draw
from -- within the White House would be obviously by subject matter.
Bruce Reed could take crime, for example; and Jeremy, working with
Tony, would take the national security element. We have the elements
of the program for next year. So we would draw from within the White
House, we would draw from the Cabinet, we would draw from the outside
thinkers as well as the consultants. So we would have fairly large
universal ideas that we were drawing from. And the individual
speechwriting staff would be asked to provide speech material so we
get passages and ideas from them as well. So we draw on their talents
as well. I don't think we ought to exclude them from the process;
indeed, I think they can help to strengthen it.
So there would be a lot of folks involved in this. I don't
think you have to read all this material. I think that's something
that can all go to David and we can work that within the staff. But
we'll show you the things that are most interesting. There's no
reason for you to read everything that comes in.
MR. LADER: Looking over the last couple of months, what are
some of the interviews or speeches you've done that you feel you were
at the form and in the substance that you'd like embraced in this, as
well? What should be reflected and incorporated in this sum?
THE PRESIDENT: Oh, I don't know. I think I was having the
biggest impact when I did the Memphis speech, the North Carolina
speech, the Yale speech at the reunion. Those are three that we sort
of did in succession.
But I also think the -- it's a little -- it's not the right
form, probably, but I also think that entitlement speech had a lot of
good stuff in it, because it laid down a lot of markers. It sort of
forced people to climb barriers. Just keep in mind, we're going to
have to deal with -- we may or may not have to deal with the State of
the Union. There's a chance we'll have to -- you've got the balanced