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[03/02/1999 – 07/30/1999]
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Tape Restoration Project (TRP) Emails
Tape Restoration Project (TRP) Email from the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Bucket
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Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
Clinton Library
DOCUMENT NO.
SUBJECT/TITLE
DATE
RESTRICTION
AND TYPE
001. email
CL Evans to R. Lawrence, re Thesis Defense (1 page)
03/02/1999
P6/b(6)
COLLECTION:
Clinton Presidential Records
Tape Restoration Project [Email]
CEA (Robert Z. Lawrence)
OA/Box Number: 950000
FOLDER TITLE:
[03/02/1999 - 07/30/199]
2014-0316-F
wr10771
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
PI National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA|
b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRAJ
b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of
P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA|
an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information |(a)(4) of the PRA]
b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors |a)(5) of the PRA
b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed
b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
of gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C.
b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
2201(3).
concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA]
RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.
Withdrawal/Redaction Marker
Clinton Library
DOCUMENT NO.
SUBJECT/TITLE
DATE
RESTRICTION
AND TYPE
001. email
C L Evans to R. Lawrence, re Thesis Defense (1 page)
03/02/1999
P6/b(6)
COLLECTION:
Clinton Presidential Records
Tape Restoration Project [Email]
CEA (Robert Z. Lawrence)
OA/Box Number: 950000
FOLDER TITLE:
[03/02/1999 - 07/30/199]
2014-0316-F
wr10771
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - |44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - 15 U.S.C. 552(b)]
PI National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
b(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRAJ
b(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of
P3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRAJ
an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
b(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRAJ
b(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors |a)(5) of the PRA]
b(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy |(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy |(a)(6) of the PRA|
b(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes |(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed
b(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
of gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
PRM. Personal record misfile defined in accordance with 44 U.S.C.
b(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
2201(3).
concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA]
RR. Document will be reviewed upon request.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (TRP NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: ssbhalla ( ssbhalla <[email protected]> [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:10-APR-1999. 14:03:31.00
SUBJECT: Italian Wine, Indian Spirit and the Rupee
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: fortinc ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: klateef ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: nzagha ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: plutarch ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: r-sah ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: reuven.glick ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: rlitan ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: sbery ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: sfardoust ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: sfischer ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: SQislam ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: sshah ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: ssharma ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: syusuf ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: udas ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: vr_khosla ([email protected] [ UNKNOWN )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
What is going to happen on the Indian political scene ? What is going to
happen to the rupee ? Where does Italy come in ? Read and find out.
Italian Wine, Indian Spirit - and the Rupee
By Surjit S. Bhalla
April 10, 1999
(For publication in Economic Times, April 13, 1999)
It is funny time again - a season when politicians seek to remind mere
mortals that they are the rulers, and that they have a role to play -
besides breaking chairs, necks, relationships, looting the exchequer, and
otherwise making a nuisance of themselves. The latest example - the
proverbial fat lady sang! Dr. J Jayalalitha, the mercurial, (and too clever
by half?) leader of the AIADMK, broke off her relationship.
The divorce of Dr. JJ and the BJP was not unexpected - Ms. Jayalalitha
had
been flirting with the idea since Day 1. Many wondered as to why the BJP
was
not calling her bluff, and why when asked to jump, the BJP repeatedly asked
"how high?" Or when asked to walk, the BJP shamelessly preferred crawling.
All for the sake of keeping the coalition partner happy, and keeping glued
to power. Such servility ends in only one of two ways - either the
jumping/crawling person loses his legs, or he stands up and tells the
tormentor to go fly a kite. The BJP, finally and thankfully, has chosen the
only responsible course left, and has learnt to play poker - it has called
Dr. JJ's bluff and said "Enough - and No More".
Various realignments are possible. Two outcomes: the BJP is able to pass a
vote of no confidence, or the Congress leads a rag-tag group. The latter is
considered unlikely because the Congress leadership is not that stupid -
leading a new coalition, with Dr. JJ as a major ally, is not learning from
history. But the last few years in the wilderness for the Congress party is
a record i.e. at no other time in India's history has the Congress been out
of power for three consecutive years. The party is lusting for power, and
in
such situations, lesser mortals have been known to lose their senses. So
one
should not be surprised if the Congress takes the bait.
The present political uncertainty is likely to result in a greater
political
certainty in the very near future. It is also likely that the BJP will
survive the confidence vote scheduled for next week. However, the chances
of
a general election in the fall (around October '99) have considerably gone
up. And the "certainty" is in the continuity of economic reform policies,
and the continuing irrelevance of Indian politicians - a la Italy.
The good news is in the fact that the Indian economy, and policy making, is
maturing - and there is unanimity in economic views between the BJP and the
Congress. Both parties are for the patent bill, insurance deregulation,
privatization, decreasing the fiscal deficit, controlling inflation, and
"economic motherhood". Not only are they in agreement with the goals, they
are also in agreement with the methods, i.e. relying on the increasingly
technocratic bureaucrats in the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Bank of
India, the PMO, Planning Commission, etc. The show will go on - regardless
of the party in power.
Thus, India will increasingly look like Italy - with or without Sonia
Gandhi
as PM. Before Euroland, Italy changed political leadership about as often
as
people changed their underwear. This political uncertainty had a zero
impact
on the Italian economy and markets. If there had been any long lasting
effect, only Italian designers would now be left, and Italy would not have
the reputation as one of the best performing European economies. And one of
the best performing stock markets (outside of the US, of course). India,
Italian style - the markets learn to ignore the politicians, and
concentrate
on economic fundamentals. And the fundamentals look extremely good for
inflation and interest rate declines, a 7 percent economic growth rate, and
a further 20 percent appreciation in the stock market.
The Political Rupee: With uncanny predictability, political uncertainty in
India is associated with interest groups (inefficient industrialists)
clamoring for a depreciation. Sometimes these demands are coincident with
an
over-valuation of the rupee. Today, that crutch is not available to our
dinosaur industrialists.
What about the need to spur export growth? What about it? Export growth is
an important consideration, and for very long the Indian authorities
neglected the role of relative prices in determining output. But India
missed the undervalued currency motor-boat in the sixties, seventies and
eighties. This art was well practiced by the East Asian economies, and most
notably by China, which depreciated its currency in real terms by over 400
percent between 1978 and end 1993. Now, even if India wants to, it cannot
really undervalue the currency, though it can over-value it. This is
because
of the role of capital flows in "forcing" currency adjustments. If, for
example, the Indian authorities were to devalue the rupee when the
fundamentals do not demand it (as at present), then there is likely to be a
net inflow of dollars which will cause the rupee to appreciate. What can
negate this inflow is higher inflation - but if higher inflation is the
result of devaluation, then what is the contribution of the devaluation?
Estimates of purchasing power parity (PPP) over-valuation of the rupee
using
bi-lateral (with US) inflation differentials, and PPP+ estimates (PPP
adjusted for relative productivity growth) are presented in the Table. No
matter which inflation measure, or which base year is used , the PPP
calculations suggest that the rupee is undervalued with respect to the US
dollar. The PPP+ measures suggest a slight, but insignificant,
over-valuation.
The major problem with the Indian economy has been its overly controlled
capital market, and sky high real interest rates; and not the shenanigans
of
neanderthal politicians (Indian specialty over the last fifty years - the
names change, the backwardness does not). A decline in real interest rates,
which is finally occurring, and has further to go, will help bolster the
economy, and will induce more capital flows into India (both portfolio and
foreign direct investment). These flows will put pressure on the rupee to
appreciate, and any forced devaluation will come asunder.
If such pressure is to be averted, the authorities should consider opening
up the capital account. In conclusion, no matter what the criteria, or the
source, there is zero basis for arguing that the rupee should depreciate.
If
sops have to be given to inefficient industrialists, they should be told to
make money the old fashioned way - by earning it.
Table 1 - Is the Rupee Over-Valued? - NO
Using Different "Equilibrium" Base
Years
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995 1996
PPP Over-valuation (%)
Using WPI
-26.7 -21.5 -7.8 -12.9
-15.9 -9.7
Using CPI
-14.9 -10.1 3.3 -1.0
-4.4 -1.7
PPP+ Over-Valuation(%)
Using WPI
-11.7 -7.1
4.9
0.5
-2.2 3.3
Using CPI
-1.3
2.9
14.8
11.0
7.9
10.3
Source: O[x]us Research & Investments Database.
Notes:
1. PPP+ represents (relative) productivity adjustments to purchasing power
parity (PPP), or inflation-adjusted exchange rates (vis-?-vis the US).
2. Negative over-valuation means that the rupee would have a tendency to
appreciate if it was market determined.
The author is Director, Oxus Fund Management, a New Delhi based emerging
markets advisory and asset management firm.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (TRP NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: John.Kitchen ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME: 5-MAY-1999 16:37:41.00
SUBJECT: New population forecast -Reply
TO: ccox ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Douglas A. Norwood ( CN=Douglas A. Norwood/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Joseph J. Minarik ( CN=Joseph J. Minarik/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Justine F. Rodriguez ( CN=Justine F. Rodriguez/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mark A. Wasserman ( CN=Mark A. Wasserman/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Mary A. Thomas ( CN=Mary A. Thomas/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Patrick G. Locke ( CN=Patrick G. Locke/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Rebecca M. Blank ( CN=Rebecca M. Blank/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert B. Anderson ( CN=Robert B. Anderson/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Steven N. Braun ( CN=Steven N. Braun/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: David.Wilcox ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Jeremy.Rudd ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Joel.Platt ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: John.Kitchen ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Karen.Hendershot ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Leeprice ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert.Cumby ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Date: 05/05/1999 12:35 pm (Wednesday)
From: John Kitchen
To: Dom13.DOPO7(CUMBYR, HENDERSHOTK, PLATTJ, RUDDJ, WILCOXD),
ex.mail("[email protected]", "[email protected]",
"david.wilcox", "[email protected]", "jeremy.rudd",
"joel.platt", "John.kitchen", '[email protected]",
"[email protected]", "Karen.hendershot",
"[email protected]", "[email protected]",
"[email protected]", "[email protected]",
"[email protected]", "robert.cumby",
"[email protected]",
"[email protected]")
Subject: New population forecast -Reply
Do you have any feel for the mix? That is, is there any
reason to think that the higher growth is occurring in groups
that would have a higher or lower participation rate than the
average for the previous population growth? At some point
this may be a third decimal place issue and not really be that
important, but I don't know the relative magnitudes right off
hand.
RECORD TYPE: PRESIDENTIAL (TRP NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: Marsha Moke ( Marsha Moke <[email protected]> [ UNKNOWN 1)
CREATION DATE/TIME:30-JUL-1999 22:42:03.00
SUBJECT: Re: For Clearance: Steel Action Plan Draft 9- Comments back by
2:00 FridayPlease
TO: andrew_stephens ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: bialosjp ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Charles.stark ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Carlos E. Pascual ( CN=Carlos E. Pascual/OU=NSC/O=EOP [ NSC ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Carolyn T. Wu ( CN=Carolyn T. Wu/OU=WHO/O=EOP [ WHO 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Charles M. Brain ( CN=Charles M. Brain/OU=WHO/O=EOP [ WHO D
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Dario J. Gomez ( CN=Dario J. Gomez/OU=WHO/O=EOP [ WHO 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Joshua Gotbaum ( CN=Joshua Gotbaum/OU=OMB/O=EOP [ OMB 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Karen Tramontano ( CN=Karen Tramontano/OU=WHO/O=EOP [ WHO 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Lael Brainard ( CN=Lael Brainard/OU=OPD/O=EOP [ OPD 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Malcolm R. Lee ( CN=Malcolm R. Lee/OU=OPD/O=EOP [ OPD 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Melissa G. Green ( CN=Melissa G. Green/OU=OPD/O=EOP [ OPD ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Miles M. Lackey ( CN=Miles M. Lackey/OU=NSC/O=EOP [ NSC 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Robert Z. Lawrence ( CN=Robert Z. Lawrence/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Sharon H. Yuan ( CN=Sharon H. Yuan/OU=OPD/O=EOP [ OPD ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Tracey E. Thornton ( CN=Tracey E. Thornton/OU=WHO/O=EOP [ WHO ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Victoria A. Greenfield ( CN=Victoria A. Greenfield/OU=CEA/O=EOP [ CEA 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: David W. Beier ( David W. Beier@OVP [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: EBIEL ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: ebtpp ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: ESSERMAN_SUE ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ])
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: FREIBERG_KEN ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Meg.Lundsager ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN ] )
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: n ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: NOVICK_ROBERT ([email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: Richard M. Saunders ( Richard M. Saunders@OVP [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TO: SAMET-ANDREW ( [email protected] [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Sorry for the delay in providing comments. I was unable to reach
Gordana until now.
1. the language on Japan is fine (1.a.)
2. Regarding Russia (1.d.), as far as we know they are planning to
attend the November OECD steel meeting.
3. Regarding the ITC study (5): I think the first para is what Alan
wanted to steer clear of. Gordana did not see a problem with the new
language. However, she thought that we might want to discuss (in
general) with the ITC to see if this is doable. If the study needs to
be whittled down, we could have it focus on labor and the envrionment
(pts 4&5). I sent comments on Alan's latest proposals in a separate
email. Basically, options 1 & 3 are fine. We may need to be careful
with point 2 to ensure that we are not helping the steel industry at
the expense of other industries (i.e. wood).
4. Becker proposal (13). The OECD steel committee is not the
appropriate forum to conduct this study. Presumably, if we were to
adopt Wolf's proposal currently bracketed in the text, it deals with
labor standards and should take care of Becker's concerns. This
appears to be something that Alan and the unions support.
Alternatively, as I mentioned in a previous email, we could have the
OECD Labor Cmt study on labor and trade (which is currently being
updated) refered tot he steel committee for review. In any event, the
OECD steel committee is not the place for this study to be undertaken.
5. I need to float Becker's proposal in #14 by a few people here.
While I doubt we would have a problem, I need to find out if this
would somehow constitute a subsidy.
That's all for now.
Marsha
»
<[email protected]> 07/29/99 08:55PM
(See attached file: steelplan9.doc)
Here is the latest draft of the steel action plan for clearance.
Current
target date for rollout is August 5. The draft has NOT been shared
with
anyone outside the government. Revisions are italicized. New
proposals/requests by steelworkers and industry proposal on ITC study
are
identified for comment or clearance. Please shoot me comments by
2:00
Friday by e-mail or fax (6-9290).
After Friday, please cc: any steel-related communications to Lael
Brainard's confidential assistant Sharon Yuan as well, as I will be on
leave.
<[email protected]> 07/29/99 08:55PM
(See attached file: steelplan9.doc)
Here is the latest draft of the steel action plan for clearance.
Current
target date for rollout is August 5. The draft has NOT been shared
with
anyone outside the government. Revisions are italicized. New
proposals/requests by steelworkers and industry proposal on ITC study
are
identified for comment or clearance. Please shoot me comments by
2:00
Friday by e-mail or fax (6-9290).
After Friday, please cc: any steel-related communications to Lael
Brainard's confidential assistant Sharon Yuan as well, as I will be on
leave.