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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 2009-0275-S 2009-0275-S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Scowcroft, Brent, Collection Series: Media Articles Files Subseries: OA/ID Number: 85040 Folder ID Number: 85040-007 Folder Title: April 1989 Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: V O O O O GENERAL BRENT SCOWCROFT MEDIA ARTICLES APRIL - AUGUST 1989 April 1989 O SUNDAY, APRIL 2, 1989 TheWashington Post OUTLOOK Commentary and Opinion my MP THE BUSH-FORD TRIO: DICK CHENEY, BRENT SCOWCROFT, JAMES BAKER-BY FORREST GREENE FOR THE WASHINGTON POST WASHINGTON POST 2 APRIL 1989 Pg. C2 Bush's Very Own Ford Foundation The Cheney-Scowcroft-Baker Team Learned the Same Lessons in the 70s By David Gergen doors away in the West Wing. two years ago Cheney took Baker up into the The two went with Ford to Helsinki anc Wind River Range of his native Wyoming for I F PERSONAL friendships were the Vladivostok as he negotiated arms controi a week of riding and fishing. They were to go key to conducting a successful foreign with the Soviets, and they tried to extricate again last summer but Cheney had a mild policy, George Bush should be lining him from his gaffe over Poland in his ill-fated heart attack and Baker took Bush instead. up soon for a Nobel prize. Not since Harry debate with Jimmy Carter. After Ford left This summer? The two made plans for an Truman has any president assembled a office, they remained close as Scowcroft August trip even before Cheney was named team of top advisers SO closely knit togeth- brought Cheney into a series of national-se- to Defense, and last week Cheney penned a er by trust, temperament and philosophy as curity study groups at Aspen and elsewhere. private note saying the invitation was "still the triumvirate that Bush finally has in "I saw him as a coming power in the Repub- valid". place: James Baker at State, Brent Scow- lican party, and he was damn smart. To observers such as Steve Hess of croft at the National Security Council and Dick's like an old shoe now, and we will get Brookings, the three are "uniquely men of Dick Cheney at Defense. along beautifully in our new positions," says good will, a combination that is remarkable in the corridors of power." All three see the These three men share the bond of hav- Scowcroft. ing fought in the same trenches during the It was in those same days that Baker came others as team players, self-confident and in- presidency of Gerald Ford. Thus, like Tru- to know both men. He and Scowcroft linked dependent-minded but not hungering for man's brain trust, they come to their new up on the Ford campaign plane, traveling power or the camera. All three have also together during the fall of 1976 when Baker signed up for the long haul, intending to stay positions of leadership with a particular frame of reference, shaped in their case, by was Ford's campaign manager. Another fre- for four years and perhaps longer if Bush is quent flyer was Alan Greenspan, then Ford's still president. Cheney, 48, would still have a the post-Watergate period of disorientation and reconstruction. Their shared lessons chief economist and now chairman of the career beyond but for Baker, 58, and Scow- include: Federal Reserve Board and a continuing con- croft, 64, these jobs are probably the culmi- fidant of all three men. Baker and Scowcroft nation of their public service. That's why all Play as a team. The backbiting and sus- picion that pitted Kissinger vs. Schlesinger, quickly developed mutual respect and were of them have a special stake in their mutual allies in the Bush campaigns of 1980 and success. Brezinski vs. Vance etc. warps policy mak- It may not all be smooth riding, however. 1988. "I realized on day one of the 1988 ing and erodes presidential power. Unless they instill a greater sense of urgency campaign, when Brent began helping out, Govern from the top. Bureaucratic wran- in the administration over budget and trade that George would probably like to have him gling slows things down and produces un- deficits, the world's economic system could as NSC adviser if he won the election," says planned leaks to the press, making life more one day collapse around them. Foreigners Baker. difficult. point out that only Scowcroft has the exten- Keep your guard up, especially in foreign rom the first, the Bush team members sive experience in diplomacy normally asso- affairs. Detente looked good until we began F have been trying to stay pals. During ciated with his job. Like-mindedness also has to take it for granted. the transition, Baker and Scowcroft its own perils: It can stifle healthy disagree- The returning Fordites came in the mid- agreed that Baker would have the lead on ment. Scowcroft, for example, has long been 1970s from the moderate wing of the GOP. foreign policy while Scowcroft and the NSC eager to discard plans from the Reagan ad- would have no operational role and Scowcroft ministration to build a rail-based MX missile Some never found a home under Ronald Rea- himself would be a low-profile "honest bro- while Cheney apparently leans toward a rail- gan. Bush himself served as CIA director ker" within the administration. Along the way garrison. The administration would be better under Ford and was long identified with that wing of the party. A growing number of oth- they would avoid niggling disagreements served to have a full-fledged, front-page de- er "Ford people" are signing up with the new over public speeches, television interviews, bate than to smother dissent in order to keep administration. But if the moderates are ambassadorial visits and the like. For Baker, internal peace. back, the old moderate policies are not. Pre- it was a welcome difference from the day that Reagan's new secretary of state, Al A S Scowcroft recognizes, they still face cisely because of their experiences in the Haig, apparently misled by the president a residue of suspicion, jealousy and Ford days, the new foreign-policy team un- about the scope of his duties, came calling backbiting from years of internal der Bush may prove surprisingly more cau- with a paper claiming far more turf than the struggle between their institutions. Scow- tious and even hardline than the conserva- White House wanted to relinquish. Relation- croft and Cheney had ring-side seats for the tives under Reagan. ships with Haig slid downhill from there. bitter feuds between Henry Kissinger, Ford's Baker, Scowcroft and Cheney all enjoy But if Baker is close to Scowcroft, it is first NSC adviser, and Jim Schlesinger at De- reminiscing about their pasts together, and it Cheney who is his real buddy-just as fense. "They were two of the best minds in is clear that one of their attractions in joining Cheney is also closer to Scowcroft. "I'm the the country, but they just couldn't get along," Bush was a chance to work with old friends guy who named Jim campaign manager for says one official from those days. again. In conversations over the past week, Ford," Cheney proudly remembers. The two From the Reagan years, Baker has fresh both Cheney and Scowcroft recalled that became fast friends, so that when Baker was memories of the continuing battles between their relationship blossomed when Ford pro. Reagan's chief of staff and Cheney was then Caspar Weinberger at Defense and Al Haig moted them to top positions on the same in Congress, the two talked frequently, and then George Shultz at State. The sniping day-Cheney to be chief of staff at the age of Cheney tipping him off to the latest twists on between Zbigniew Brezinski at NSC and Cy- 34, Scowcroft to be NSC adviser, only a few Capitol Hill. Both love the back woods, and rus Vance at State during the Carter years, FORD FOUNDATION as a grand strategist in the Kissinger or Ford aside for the Republican nomination by Nixon mold, and some critics argue they are attacking detente SO sharply that Ford had to not strong conceptualizers, either. "This is a CONTINUED drop the word-and almost had to drop Kiss- government of incrementalists," says one Re- inger. publican authority. "Kissinger thought three the distance between LBJ and Dean Rusk, Not surprisingly, all three men-along or four moves ahead; these guys may be two- with Bush-come to office determined not to the exasperation of Ike with "Engine Charlie" move players," says another. A few who have Wilson at Defense-all those left indelible be swept away by changes in the Kremlin. dealt directly with him think Bush may be the impressions, too, of disrupted policy making "You can't look back upon the experience of best foreign-policy thinker, while Scowcroft and participants drained of both energy and the 1970s without being a bit skeptical about is given credit for being an excellent judge of good will. the prospect of long-term change in the So- others' ideas and Baker is seen as a superb The Bush trio hopes to set a pattern of co- viet Union," observes Cheney. In a speech he tactician. In truth, it is too early to tell much operation early on and see it seep down into personally wrote for his Pentagon inaugu- about their capacities in their new roles. their bureaucracies. Baker believes the sys- ration, Cheney said, "There are those who It won't be long, however, before the tem is already producing benefits: He was want to declare the Cold War ended. But press and perhaps foreign governments be- able to work closely with Scowcroft and Bush I believe caution is in order." And in a pas- gin to make judgments, since the adminis- in devising a new Central American plan and sage Gorbachev must have found striking, tration should soon complete its long-awaited then negotiate on Capitol Hill without the Cheney added this test for the Soviets: "To national-security and foreign-policy reviews. plan leaking to the press and possibly derail- date, there's been no reduction in the stra- Below top levels, officials are already trying ing. By nature, Baker is also impatient with tegic systems targeted against the United to lower expectations, saying that most of long bureaucratic wrangling, and he. was States." the studies are bottom-up summaries of con- pleased that he could work out a framework Reagan and some of his team came to ventional wisdom. One source says that only for his first major speech on arms control, Washington with traditional Cold War views the studies of the strategic reduction talks delivered recently in Vienna, by asking of the Soviets but because they had not per- and strategic modernization questions (e.g., Scowcroft and Adm. William Crowe, chair- sonally presided over the souring of detente whether to build a mobile missile) are likely man of the Joint Chiefs, to come to his suite in the 1970s, they apparently found it easier to be significant, and a third study may sur- for lunch. to change their minds. Persuaded that Gor- face some interesting options on Eastern Eu- The procedural danger is that by working bachev represented a break with the past rope. But, as Kissinger found during a similar the system from "top down", some good (why, he even talked about God), Reagan exercise in the Nixon years, the reports are ideas and refinements may be lost from the swung from the pessimism of his "evil em- likely to leave all the big questions in the laps experts closer to the bottom. Foreign-service pire" speech to the optimism of Reykjavik. of the big players: Bush and his triumvirate. officers are openly criticizing Baker already Cheney was troubled by the outcome of Friendships do matter. The last time an for ignoring them. Baker's defenders say that Reykjavik and has vowed to steer a straight- administration had so many friends at the top he will gradually bring them into his circle, er course. saw a burst of creative brilliance, as George but before he went to State, he was urged hether their caution will encourage Marshall, Henry Stimson, Dean Acheson and not to be "captured" by the bureaucracy like Shultz. "Those foreign-service officers ran W the kind of imagination and daring others helped Harry Truman erect a system that the times require is a large, un- of alliances and policies that kept the peace Shultz on almost every issue, and Baker is answered question, one that all of them are for 40 years. They had the additional advan- right not to allow it," says one high-ranking now pondering. Certainly, they recognize tage, however, of coming through a great official. that the postwar structures are rapidly shift- war together. When the war ended, they The more interesting question is whether ing beneath their feet as the perception of a knew they were living through a hinge point they will get along as well with the world as Soviet threat recedes in public minds and as in history, and they were prepared for it. they do with each other. Cheney and Scow- old partners in Europe and Asia become stiff The Bush advisers know that they, too, croft were both at the Ford White House economic competitors. Bush has said repeat- are living through a watershed period and when detente crumbled as the Soviets built edly that the United States now has major they are counting on their friendships to up both their military and their empire. They opportunities to reshape the world, and Bak- help. Whether they can also summon the wis- painfully remember how U.S. soldiers were er echoes him, "We must not let an oppor- dom of the Truman years is probably their lifted from rooftops in Saigon and the North tunity go by from an excess of caution, but biggest test. Vietnamese obliterated the peace agree- it's a line you've got to be able to walk with ments. And Baker has vivid memories of a David Gergen, editor at large of U.S. News & great care." World Report, was special counsel to conservative Ronald Reagan almost pushing None of Bush's top advisers sees himself President Ford. Calling for a Redesign The Washington Post The New York Times 4-E The Washington Times Of National Security The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News By RICHARD HALLORAN USA Today WASHINGTON The Chicago Tribune N the summer of 1949, the Soviet Union The Personal Touch exploded its first atomic bomb and Date Communists came to power in China. To emphasize the importance of this ven- 2APR 1989 Taken aback, President Truman asked ture, Mr. Bush personally wrote parts of the his advisers on foreign and military policy marching orders early last month. While he to reassess American objectives in war and wanted the premises of national security to peace. In the spring of 1950, they produced a be re-examined, he wrote: "I don't expect far-ranging document to guide the delibera- this review to invent a new strategy for a tions of the National Security Council. new world." Known as NSC-68, it has governed Amer- "It's fairly ambitious," said one official, ican foreign and military policies for nearly "but it's intended to produce a disciplined forty years now. It rejected isolation as ap- evolution." Mr. Bush has said he will make peasement and preventive war as disas- no decisions or announcements until com- trous, and provided the strategic underpin- pletion of the review in mid-May, when he ning for the containment of the Soviet Union expects to begin delivering a series of and China. It led to establishing the nation's speeches on the new strategy. first large armed force in peacetime, forg- As with NSC-68, an assessment of the ing a network of alliances centering on Soviet Union's economic and military NATO and deploying of American forces power is clearly central to National Se- around the world. It also argued for enlarg- curity Review 12. NSC-68 stated: "We can ing the nuclear arsenal intended to deter expect no lasting abatement" of East-West adversaries. tensions "unless and until a change occurs President Bush, addressing Congress in in the nature of the Soviet system." The February, called for a wide-ranging review question today: Do Mr. Gorbachev's re- of security strategy, recognizing that the forms signal the beginning of such a funda- world of 1989 is fundamentally different mental change? from that of 1973, when American involve- Similarly, an objective set by NSC-68 was ment in the Vietnam war ended, let alone "the gradual retraction of undue Russian that of 1949. power and influence from the present per- Thus last week, Mikhail S. Gorbachev imeter areas around traditional Russian presided over the freest nationwide Soviet boundaries." With Eastern Europe once elections since 1917. Just after World War again restless, should this retraction re- II, the Soviet Union's economy was recover- main a goal for the United States? ing; today it is stagnant. Japan, crushed in Senior Administration officials have World War II, has become a leading eco- begun to hint at directions the review has nomic competitor and Washington has taken. Secretary of State James A. Baker begun to view economic policy as an equal 3d said last week that the United States to traditional foreign and military policy as might seek negotiations with the Soviet an element of national security. Union aimed at loosening Moscow's grip on The United States is no less concerned to- Eastern Europe. Secretary of Defense day with the containment of communism, Richard B. Cheney has said the need for but with the Soviet Union's retreat from Af- stationing forces around the world was ghanistan and other more farflung spots, being examined. Washington policy makers have seen signs In many ways, National Security Review of flexibility in Soviet policy. To test that 12 has its roots in the Vietnam war, which flexibility, the Bush Administration last shattered the American consensus on for- week appealed to Mr. Gorbachev and his eign policy and especially on the use of mili- ally, Fidel Castro, "to end all aid that sup- tary power. Each administration since has ports subversion and destablilization in made minor policy adjustments without ac- Central America." knowleging a need to undertake a broad re- In his address to Congress, Mr. Bush said examination of ways to protect national in- he had asked for a review of "our national terests. security policies and defense strategies President Reagan, for instance, early in with a view to ensuring compatibility his first term ordered a study of diplomatic, among our commitments, strategies, capa- economic, military and intelligence policies bilities and resources." that are subsumed in national security poli- Known as National Strategy Review 12, it cy. But the State Department, Treasury is expected to put President Bush's imprint and other agencies failed to respond. on national security policy without demol- Late in Mr. Reagan's second term, a De- ishing earlier strategies. fense Department panel led by Fred C. Ikle, the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, and Albert Wohlstetter, a defense consult- ant, produced "Discriminate Deterrence," a study that has since gathered dust. The latest review is being supervised by President Bush's national security adviser, CONTROLD Page 16. Brent Scowcroft, with the State and De- fense Departments, the Treasury and Cen- tral Intelligence contributing. R. James Woolsey, a Democrat who was Undersecre- tary of the Navy in the Carter Administra- tion and a member of several bipartisan commissions, is an adviser The main topics being examined include Soviet- American relations, arms control, global issues outside relations with the Soviet Union and defense policy. But the extent to which policy will change in many instances will be shaped by the financial resources available. Mr. Cheney has said he would like to have finished the strategic review before revising the budget to make Mr. Bush's military spending lower than that requested by President Reagan. But with the deadline for the budget coming before that of the strategy review, Mr. Cheney said, "that won't work." The gap between strategy and money is not new. In an assessment valid in both 1949 and 1989, NSC-68 said: "It is true that the United States armed forces are now stronger than ever before in times of appar- ent peace; it is also true that there exists a sharp disparity between our actual strength and our commitments." 17. Journalists Debate the Risks New york Times As President Woos the Press 4/2 By MAUREEN DOWD reached out to Democrats in Congress, a White House reporter for The Chi- Vice President Dan Quayle has Special to The New York Times using the trappings of his office to try cago Tribune - agreed to ⑈ to the see- begun having his own private sessions to win them over and make them part- WASHINGTON, April Jessica sien but said they did not intend to act with journalists, and Helen Thomas of ners in his conciliatory approach to as ad hae foreign policy advisers. United Press International, who IS the Lee can remember exactly how it felt, making policy. "Marth mid that the President senior member of the White House the night she attended a dinner party at Conceding that he lacks President would really like to pick our brains," press corps, went to one such lunch for the Bushes', to drive her rusty blue Reagan's potent screen presence, he said Mr. Friedman. "I went because I six reporters on Wednesday. Ms. Datsun sports car through the iron has avoided the nationally televised wanted to pick his brain." Thomas openly took notes and pressed gates and up the driveway to the White evening press extravaganzas. Instead Howell Raines, the Washington bu- until the lunch was put on the record, House. "I couldn't get over it, a Wash- of using the press as a foil, he is meet- reau chief of The New York Times, and Mr. Quayle made news talking ington reporter parking in front of the ing with reporters in frequent spon- said: "We have serious misgivings about his growing confidence and his taneous news conferences, as well as door," said Ms. Lee, the White House about this approach. We've told our re- impressions of the Soviet Union. offering invitations to small groups of reporter for USA Today. porters not to give advice, to avoid ex- Benjamin C. Bradlee Jr., the execu- journalists for private chats, with the pressing opinions that would cast doubt tive editor of The Washington Post, Like some other journalists who contents not to be published or broad- on their objectivity and to withdraw if said he became fed up during the late have enjoyed the extroardinary new cast, hoping that they in turn will they feel they are being co-opted or 1960's by the proliferation of private access that President Bush is allowing present his case in a more positive compromised." sessions by the Administration and told in an array of off-the-record private light. Although none of the reporters were his reporters to refuse to participate. lunches, dinners and chats at the White Just as he impressed members of able to write an art. about the inter- "We struck out boldly," he recalled. House, Ms. Lee said the chance to see Congress and their spouses with cock- view, which took place in the Presi- "But we were whomped right away." the Gettysburg Address in the Lincoln tails on the Truman balcony, he is now dent's study and included his Chief of When no other news organizations Bedroom and other parts of the resi- offering journalists the tantalizing Staff, John Sununu, and his National followed suit, and with The Post's re- chance to see how his thinking is evolv- dential quarters was "thrilling." Security Adviser, Brent Scowcroft, porters losing important information, ing on critical foreign and domestic She does not fear that such privi- they said the meeting provided valu- Mr. Bradlee told them to return to the issues. able insights. private briefings. He said he regards leged and relaxed sessions with the Some journalists and media experts Mr. McNulty said he did not think the President Bush's greater accessibility, President will compromise her objec- say this provides an important element President's motives are "so Machia- both on the record and with various tivity. Rather, she said she believes she of truth and depth for reporting; others vellian." Rather, he said, "I think he other ground rules, "more enlight- is getting a fuller picture of Mr. Bush's say it is dishonest to the public, who never learn the proper context and enjoys the give and take. I got the im- ened" than President Reagan's inac- personality and forging a bond that will pression that a lot of discussions at the cessibility. help her get more access on future motivation for the information that news events. then colors the reporting without attri- White House are held that way, that bution. Bush has a family dinner table style of Old Debate Revived arriving at solutions." 'A Very Heady Wine' Mr. Fitzwater said the President The President's style of dealing with "President Bush is doing what other does net need reporters to give him ad- the press, dramatically different from Presidents, like L.B.J. and John Ken- vice. He merely wants to give them ex- Ronald Reagan's carefully managed, nedy did, who believed that if you could posure that he thinks would help them television-oriented approach, has re- get close enough to the press, you'd do their job. "It is hard for me to imag- vived an old debate in journalism cir- have them on your side," said Fred cles. Some reporters say such private Friendly, the director of Columbia Uni- contacts give them additional insights. versity seminars on Media and Society. But many other journalists and media "It's a very heady wine when a Presi- Bush offers a critics are skeptical, remembering the dent asks you to have lunch at the Camelot days when John F. Kennedy's White House, and there you are with tantalizing courtship of reporters seemed to turn the fancy dishes and impressive serv- ice. chance to see his many of them into cheerleaders, and "But what a President is trying to do the tense days when Lyndon B. Johnson when he goes off the record is to co-opt tried to build support for the Vietnam somebody. And reporters have to be thinking evolve. war with intense, personal persuasion wary of that." of the press corps. Mr. Friendly said journalists must beware of the dangerously seductive ine a journalism school in America In both cases, many. journalists wor- phrase. from a Chief Executive who that would tell any reporter not to talk ried afterwards that they may have asks, "If- you were President, what to the President for any reason," Mr. would you do?" Fitzwater said. cressed the line from journalism to ad- He recalled that when he was a CBS Some journalists argue in favor of vocacy. News official, he was called to the discussions with the President or Vice Mariin Fitzwater, the President's White House by President Johnson, President that are agreed in advance press secretary, argues that the cur- who put an arm around him and asked to be all or partly not for publication, rent post-Watergate crop of reporters his advice on Vietnam. called "off the record" or "on back- are such "competitive, cynical charac- "He told me that if we didn't stop the ground" among journalists. They say Communists where they were, the next that once the session begins, they can ters" that they could never be turned into advocates. But Bush officials are thing we knew they would be in San then try to obtain an agreement to Francisco. He didn't want my advice. allow some of the contents back on the eager to WOO the press anyway, per- That's why he had Dean Rusk and Rob- record. haps remembering the lesson of ert McNamara. He just wanted to get R. W. Apple Jr., the chief Washington Jimmy Carter, a President who did not me on his side." correspondent of The New York Times, court the press and whose image suf- had lunch with the President and three Last Tuesday, Mr. Fitzwater tele- fered because many journalists did not phoned three reporters who had writ- other journalists last week, and asked like him. ten about the Middle East and told Mr. Bush if the ground rules could be Congressional Approach them the President wanted to have a changed to "background," so that the material could be used without disclos- private lunch Wednesday before his "George Bush recognizes the press's meetings with President Hosni Muba- ing its source. "If I can't use any of need to get information and its value to rak of Egypt and Prime Minister Yitz- what you say, it's not of much use to him as a leader of the country," said hak Shamir of Israel. my readers,' Mr. Apple told Mr. Bush, Mr. Fitzwater. "You tell the press what The reporters Thomas L. Fried- who indicated that he would leave it up you're doing and you tell them why and man, the diplomatic correspondent for to Mr. Fitzwater. The press secretary agreed to change the rules for that ses- you hope to do it in a such way that they The New York Times; Charles Seib, a sion, but has now decided he wants to understand and support." White House reporter for The Wall keep all such future sessions com- Mr. Bush is reaching out to journal- Street Journal, and Timothy McNulty, pletely the record. ists in the same flattering way he WASHINGTON TIMES 3 APRIL 1989 Pg.3 Reagan SDI gets lower priority on Bush budget agenda well as from the troubled B-2 By Warren Strobel ICBM is king. Long live the that defenses are one of the alterna- THE WASHINGTON TIMES "stealth" bomber, the Air Force's Ad- ICBM. And they suck up all the tives," the administration official vanced Tactial Fighter aircraft and money." said. With military brass eyeing the other weapons projects. According to a White House of- Strategic Defense Initiative's huge Concerned about just that possi- ficial, concern over the direction The defense secretary said the budget and senior officials question- bility, the top Republican on the program has made considerable that the review might take prompted ing its potential contribution to U.S. House Armed Services Committee Vice President Dan Quayle to de- technical progress in recent months. security, the program appears to be last week urged Mr. Bush and De- clare in a March 23 speech that "the "We've also come up with some ways taking a back seat in the Bush ad- fense Secretary Dick Cheney to re- Bush administration remains com- to achieve that capability at signifi- ministration. ject the deal unless defense spend- mitted to the development and de- cantly less cost than was originally Supporters of the missile defense ing is raised to cover the cost of ployment of a viable strategic de- anticipated," he said. project say recent developments in Midgetman. fense system." The latter statement is widely in- Pentagon budget deliberations and "The Small ICBM is a good sys- terpreted as a reference to a new in a White House review of Washing- tem and our national security would But a senior administration anti-missile concept called "Bril- ton's strategy and goals have benefit from having it," said Rep. official involved in the review ap- liant Pebbles," which has been heightened fears that SDI will not Bill Dickinson, Alabama Republi- peared to differ with the vice pres- praised in recent weeks by Mr. retain the priority status accorded it can. "But if the cost of the program ident. Quayle, as well as the former and by former President Reagan. IS gutting SDI and other programs "SDI may or may not be the salva- current directors of the SDI re- Most immediately, SDI is being while defense budgets continue to be tion of our strategy," this official said search program. squeezed between President Bush's reduced, then we are better off with recently. "Like every other element Existing SDI plans call for space- directive that the Defense Depart- no deal." of our defense posture," he said, "it based missile interceptors that ment slash $6.3 billion from its fiscal "SDI's going to be cut, period" and ought to stand or fall on its contribu- would be housed in colonies of 10 year 1990 budget request and the probably by up to $2 billion, said an tion" to deterrence. aboard large, complex "garages." perceived urgent need to modernize aide to committee chairman Rep. Les Aspin, a prime mover behind the One official acknowleged that SDI Brilliant Pebbles, by contrast, envis- U.S. land-based nuclear missiles. may be put on the back-burner for a ions thousands of individual in- After arguing for 10 years about MX-Midgetman compromise. while, but said he is more concerned terceptors in orbit, each with com- which new missile to build and how According to various officials, the that avenues for developing anti- puters and sensors sophisticated to base it, Congress and the admin- administration's strategic review as- missile systems are not cut off in enough to select and home in on a istration appear intent on a compro- sumes that the primary means to de- arms proposals to the Soviets. rising Soviet missile without outside mise in which both the 10-warhead ter nuclear war with the Soviet help. MX, carried on rail cars, and the Union will continue to be offensive The project's advocates were en- Early prototypes are due to be single-warhead Midgetman, will be weapons. heartened last week when Mr. tested intensively over the next two fielded in the 1990s. For top Bush appointees like Na- Cheney said during a television in- years and the results could help de- The MX rail program would cost tional Security Adviser Brent Scow- terview that missile defense "would termine SDI's future. about $8 billion and Midgetman, for- croft, who is overseeing the review, add very significantly to deterrence The administration's review is ex- mally known as the Small ICBM, be- "the clock stopped in 1975," said one because of the possibility that it pected to generate for Mr. Bush a tween $25 billion and $35 billion. frustrated Pentagon official, refer- would interfere with any Soviet first half-dozen options on what to do with In a tight defense budget, the ring to the year in which the United strike in major ways. And I think SDI. money is all but certain to come States abandoned the small missile it ought to be looked at in those from SDI for which Mr. Reagan defense it was allowed under the terms." According to a White House of- requested $5.9 billion in 1990 as Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. "The "It's clear that he has it in mind ficial, one will likely recommend jet- tisoning the Pentagon's current, $69 billion "Phase One" plan in favor of research on Brilliant Pebbles and deployment of a ground-based sys- tem to defend against accidental missile launches, like that suggested by Senate Armed Services Commit- tee Chairman Sam Nunn. While this would cut SDI spend- ing over the next five years from $40 billion to $33 billion, the official said, another option for "research only" would cut the program's share of the five-year defense plan in half, to $20 billion. AIR FORCE TIMES 3 APRIL 1989 Pg. 4 Cheney gets on-job training, march through many briefings By Charlie Schill Times staff writer Cheney was introduced to strategic-moderniza- WASHINGTON Richard B. Cheney, who Mike Nichols. tion challenges facing the Pentagon during a On March 24, he conducted his first admits he has a lot to learn about the military, three-hour briefing. Those issues include whether news conference as defense secretary. It spent his first week as secretary of defense in on- to continue controversial plans for rail garrison- the-job training. was followed by a classified operations ing of Peacekeeper (MX) missiles, whether to ac- Unlike most of his predecessors, Cheney has briefing. quire the Small Intercontinental Ballistic Missile not had extensive experience in military affairs Cheney was scheduled for a four-hour and he did not serve in the armed forces. He (Midgetman) and whether NATO allies politically update on Pentagon intelligence operations spent much of his first week at the helm of the can support the modernization of U.S. short- and a three-hour status briefing on the Department of Defense in a series of briefings in- range nuclear missiles and artillery rounds NSC national security review to close out tended to fill gaps in his knowledge. in Europe. his first week in the Pentagon. "Anybody who takes over as defense secretary Cheney and Deputy Secretary of Defense- His first-week schedule also included needs to be brought up to speed on current de- designate Donald J. Atwood received two meetings each evening with Atwood and tails of military programs and issues," said a Pen- classified briefings lasting nearly three Adm. William J. Crowe Jr. (USN), the tagon official who spoke on condition he not be hours on military operations during the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who week. identified. are working on budget-reduction options, "In Cheney's case, it's a matter of starting al- The new secretary of defense also was the internal management review and the most from scratch. The briefings have to deal briefed by Donald J. Rice of Rand Corp. national security study. with the broad implications of issues before we about ongoing studies commissioned by the Since the Bush administration took office can move onto the nitty-gritty," he said. Pentagon. Rice served in the Pentagon and Jan. 20, Crowe's staff primarily has been Cheney publicly took his oath as defense secre- OMB during the Johnson and Nixon concerned with supporting the national se- administrations. tary March 21 in a Pentagon courtyard ceremony curity review and evaluating the effects attended by President Bush, defense officials and Cheney ate lunch with Rep. William L that various cost-savings proposals to trim a throng of generals and admirals. Dickinson of Alabama, the ranking Repub- the Pentagon budget would have on com- lican on the House Armed Services Com- He used the occasion to reaffirm his commit- bat-readiness. ment to reforming the defense procurement sys- mittee, and later met separately with the tem and to maintaining military strength despite committee's chairman, Rep. Les Aspin, D- Wis. recent Soviet offers of force reductions in Europe. Cheney said the Cold War has not ended and A committee aide said talk during those he cautioned against optimists who would re- meetings focused on pending military legis- lation. Potential areas of friction between spond to Soviet rhetoric with cutbacks in funding and forces for NATO. Congress and the Pentagon - including "Until we see a significantly lessened military sharing of the defense burden by U.S. al- capability on the part of the Soviets, we cannot lies, overseas troop levels, base-closure ef- possibly justify major reductions in our own," forts and funding for personnel programs - also were discussed. Cheney warned. Here is how Cheney's first few days in office Cheney also was briefed on the status of an internal review of Pentagon manage- were spent. The new secretary's day started with a break- ment practices. Directed March 1 by Bush, fast meeting with Secretary of State James A. that review is expected to develop a plan to Baker III and national security adviser Lt. Gen. fully implement the report of the 1986 Brent Scowcroft (USAF Ret.) to discuss the cur- President's Blue-Ribbon Commission on rent national security strategy review. Defense Management, also called the Pack- The strategy assessment is being managed by ard Commission. the National Security Council staff, with the as- The review also is to provide recommen- sistance of officials from DoD and the Depart- dations for redefining the role of the Penta- ment of State. The strategic review, ordered by gon's acquisition undersecretary, streamlin- Bush Feb. 9, is scheduled to be completed by ear- ing acquisition management, redefining the role of the policy undersecretary, saving ly May. money through management efficiency and Cheney attended a 90-minute gathering March reforming the relationship between govern- 22 with Republican members of Congress to dis- ment and the defense industry. cuss his successor as the party's minority whip in Following that was a late-afternoon the House. In a close secret-ballot election, Rep. meeting with Rep. Bill Frenzel of Minneso- Newt Gingrich of Georgia was chosen. ta, a member of the House Republican Poli- Cheney also met with Office of Management cy Committee. and Budget Director Richard G. Darman to dis- Cheney attended a formal dinner with cuss the continuing effort to trim the defense network television newscasters, including budget by more than $2 billion in outlays without Sam Donaldson and Diane Sawyer of ABC, cutting military manpower or reducing readiness, at the Washington home of movie director according to a senior officer. ESSAY William Safire Sununu's 'Different Template' WASHINGTON A joke is told in politico-eco- nomic circles, attributed to replied, "I'll mention that to Cheney." "It's an alternative to the line-item Robert Strauss, about the un- He had caught the obscure allusion to veto," he said, suggesting Bob Dole hurried deliberation - or lack of nec- inept Presidential motorcading during as the best source about that, I pre- essary urgency - that characterizes the Ford Administration when Dick sume to avoid letting it appear to be the Bush Administration. Cheney was chief of staff. an executive initiative. The President is awakened by the On the other hand, he is still insecure The power to impound - to not spend sound of puppies crying in the night and wet behind his White House ears. - funds appropriated by Congress was and goes down to the White House In our interview, which was on fore- taken away from a weakened President kitchen for a snack of pork rinds and ground, he had his deputy sit in to take in 1974; Mr. Reagan's counterattack, a glass of milk. Unfamiliar with the notes, sign of a player new to the big the line-item veto, never had a chance surroundings in the dark, he bonks his leagues and fearful of being misquoted. of passage. That leaves a middle head on the refrigerator and is out He had his secretary rush in with a ground of "rescission," or getting Con- cold for three and a half years. message about being late for a meeting gress to agree to rescind parts of ap- When he opens his eyes in 1992, re- with the President, which he waved off propriations, to be "enhanced" by mak- freshed after his long rest, he sees the to flatter his visitor but also to impress ing unnecessary the current affirma- face of White House chief of staff him with the value of the time being tive legislative action. John Sununu peering down at him. taken up. That hoary heave-ho tech- The upshot would be a substantial Mr. Bush's first words are "How nique is known to Oval Officiators as giveback of executive authority, as fares the nation?" "the 10-minute bounce." evidence that the Tower appointment "Everything is in great shape," Mr. Asked about the perception of lei- precedent and the contra-veto usur- Sununu reports. "Peace, prosperity sureliness in governance, the near- pation were not waves of the future. It without inflation, the kinder-gentler palindromic aide offered a fresh would show, too, that the Bush White thing doing fine. One of Millie's metaphor to explain the failure to un- House was effectively at work behind grandpuppies just had her first litter, derstand the Bush approach: "Ours the scenes, progressing without and the Post Office is delivering the is a different template." grandstanding. announcement cards." Translation: You can no longer use Will Mr. Sununu and budgeteer The President warily asks for spe- the Reagan template on the keyboard Dick Darman win this for President cifics: "How much does it cost to of power. (A template in this sense is a Bush? I don't see how, if their stand- mail a letter from Washington to plastic instruction sheet cut out to over- ard becomes a white feather on a California?" lay the computer's keys.) The Bush flapping doormat, but for my differ- "Same as last year," shrugs Sunu- template reflects a different processing ent template, I am willing to plunk nu, "300 yen." system: if you hold down Alt and push down about 300 yen. To discover if such complacency is F9, you will now get conciliation where rampant at the center of power, and you used to get confrontation. to track down the source of a trou- I take this to mean, for example, that bling new phrase, I visited Governor the deal made with Speaker Wright to Sununu in his West Wing office. keep the contras fed while giving a He is, as they say, sharp. When I re- policy veto on Nicaragua to Congress called hours spent in that corner office would be an unprincipled cave-in on with a previous occupant, and added the Reagan template, but is a net prag- wistfully, "Say what you like about matic gain on the Bush template. Haldeman, nobody ever ran into his The chief of staff "had a little chat motorçades," Mr. Sununu smiled and with" Boyden Gray about the way the President's counsel, shut out of that Baker-Sununu-Scowcroft project, ob- jected publicly. I think Mr. Gray was right in trying to stop an evisceration of Presidential power, but Mr. Sununu disagrees. He was not trapped by what was artfully presented as a linguistic question. The phrase enhanced re- scission is being whispered in the cor- ridors of power. Sounds like a tricky euphemism; what does it mean? NEW YORK TIMES, 4/ 3 /89, p.A-23 Such a Civilized Event At the Every spring about this time, these natural enemies-the press and pub- lic figures-get together at the Capi- tal Hilton. It has something to do with something that will show the nation symbiosis. They roast each other in what faith I have in you, in your ma- Gridiron, skits and speeches with baby bro- turity and sense of responsibility mides and newsy jokes. "Singe but Would you like a puppy? never burn" is a club motto. Of Secretary of State James Baker, Even so "That was rough!" said the vice president said: "I owe him so Redskins quarterback Doug Williams, much. During the campaign he took The Wig and after his first Gridiron. "I've never me under his wing-and kept me there." seen so many potshots taken at politi- cians in all my life. Playing football is A John Tower joke came as a sur- a lot easier than sitting in there." prise, and won the evening's biggest laugh. "I do wish the Democrats "I thought I got off a lot lighter The Wags would have given John Tower the than I usually do," said Republican National Committee Chairman Lee benefit of the doubt. John frequently did innocent things that were misun- Atwater-a favorite target along derstood." Quayle then told a story with Dan Quayle, Jim Wright and about Tower sunbathing on a hotel The First Lady's April Fool Joke John Tower. "So I'm delighted." roof in the Caribbean, while on a Vice President Quayle took hits all fact-finding mission. Highlights the Annual Dinner evening. According to one observer, "Seeing no one around, he stripped President Bush never laughed at the to the buff and lay down, modestly WP 4/3 01 Quayle jokes, but looked into his lap putting a towel over his behind instead. "I wish they wouldn't pick on By Martha Sherrill Suddenly the hotel manager burst up- Quayle," said Eugene McCarthy after- Washington Post Staff Writer on the roof, yelling. 'Senator, you ward. "It's kind of sad." must come down at once. This is in- Barbara Bush did it without a troupe of profession- Quayle was the subject of a skit, in decent.' al gag writers, without two weeks of preparation and which a Richard Nixon character " 'What do you mean?' Quayle rehearsal, without having to step on stage. Saturday sings to him (to the tune of "I Believe said Tower replied. T'm covered night at the annual Gridiron dinner-that lovefest of in You"): with a towel.' low blows between the press and politicians-she You've got the cool, clear eyes of a 'But senator, you're lying on our made her own kind of April Fool's joke. seeker of wisdom and truth, dining room skylight.' " She showed up wearing a reddish blond wig. She You're not the intellectual midget Quayle later became serious. He wore it all night. She left wearing it. She never let on it you seemed in your youth invoked the name of his grandfather, was a joke. You're not the dim bulb I had been Indiana publisher Eugene Pulliam- There was.a certain amount of confusion. led to believe I would see. which reminded everyone he is a Arriving at the dinner, the first lady sat down at Are you an airhead dilettante light- newspaperman twice-removed. "He the enormously long head table. The 40 other people weight? You sure could fool me. sitting there leaned forward-all at once, someone came to these Gridirons quite often said-to get better Who, What, When He certainly enjoyed them. And look. Only atte bitter This slap-shtick has been going on carrying on the tradition, I've enjoyed end of the evening for some time. Saturday night's was the evening too." when George Bush "He had that debate look," said one stood up to give his re- the 104th annual Gridiron dinner, to journalist afterward, "like a guy marks-was there any which the 60 members of the Grid- who'd just been punched." reference to is. "Lucki- iron Club (referred to as "journalism's ly," said the president, Ron Brown, Your Turn elite") invite bigwigs from the gov- "Barbara has not react- ernment, corporate America and the The other party was represented ed in the slightest to: all media to put on white tie and ditch by new Democratic National Com- the comments about her their spouses at home. It was a stag mittee Chairman Ron Brown. "To- give help thing until 1975. Now some of the night I was looking forward to this Still, people kept talk- dinner," Brown began. "I arrive here spouses are men. ing. There were 630 members and feeling good about myself, resplen- "It wasn't a red wig," dent in this white tie, proud of my ac- guests there this year. And they said one observer-a were mostly Very Important. The complishments. And I see [columnist] man. "It was copper." Bob Novak at the door. He walks up head table ran the width of the ball- "It wasn't copper," to me with a big smile on his face, room-to accommodate all the pres- said PL 3' Judy Wood- and then hands me his coat and a tige. It accommodated the president ruff. "It was strawber- quarter and the vice president. Barbara Bush. "Frankly I was a little offended," he ry-blondish." Marilyn Quayle. Ron Brown. Jim continued. "At least [former DNC "I thought it was sup- Wright. Dick Cheney. Dick Thorn- chairman Robert] Strauss gave me a posed to be Nancy Rea- burgh. James Baker. Marlin Fitzwa- dollar." gan hair," said one pub- ter. Tom Foley. Brent Scowcroft. He spoke of the Reagans. "And, lisher. Dick Darman. William Sessions. Alan frankly, tonight I miss Nancy and "Our table spent the Greenspan. And not quite a majority Ronald Reagan. For eight years, they whole night trying to of Supreme Court justices. set a standard for entertainment, sto- figure out whether it In the center of all this sat Gridiron rytelling and amusement that will be was a wig or a dye job," President Lawrence M. O'Rourke, of difficult to match," he said. "And they said a columnist. the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. also did a great job here at the Grid- "It was great. She The "working press" is never invit- iron looked awful," said ed to the Gridiron-another tradi- "To tell the truth," said Brown. speechwriter Landon tion. Somehow it winds up in the pa- "I'm more comfortable now that the Parvin-the jokemeis- per anyway. amateurs are back in charge." ter famous for scripting Nancy Reagan's trium- Quayle Shoot phant "Second-Hand BY CRAIG HERNDON Clothes" gig at the Grid- After being the butt of others' -THE WASHINGTON POST iron in 1982. "It looked jokes, Quayle got up and made fun of From top, Ren Brown, like she had Millie on himself. This is how others-Nancy James Baker and Doug her head." Reagan, Don Regan-helped human- Wash Williams at the Gridiron ize themselves. (Sometimes the ef- Club's annual dinner. fects wear off immediately.) This is Post what the Gridiron is all about. Hu- manness. Humble pie. Total-but Apr 3 tender-humiliation. "The president has been so sup- portive of me," said Quayle. "The oth- er day he called me into the Oval Of- fice and said, 'I know you've had Mr. President conjured by Bush himself and his in- house staff-the first draft reported- "This is the largest white-tie group ly written by new White House I've seen," said George Bush, "since speechwriter Edward McNally. those coming-out parties in Iowa The day before the dinner, DNC's "People say I'm indecisive," he Mike McCurry said that "the usual said, "but I don't know about that. suspects have been scrounging the "People say I lack political cour- earth to come up with ideas" for Ron age," he continued. "But don't forget, Brown's speech. "Ron actually has a I went right into the heart of Armish good sense of humor-so most of it's country and told them: Just Say No." up to him." What people said about Bush after "He knows what's funny," press the event was that he looked relaxed secretary Dave Beckwith said on during his speech-which went over Thursday of Quayle, who had most of well. He didn't seem too haunted by his speech penned by a professional. the ghost of the Gridiron pro. "In fact, he wrote a couple jokes him- "Let's face it," Bush said, "if I was self this afternoon." funnier than Ronald Reagan, I would Landon Parvin admits the Gridiron have won in 1980. And he'd be up isn't an easy gig. "It's tough. I've here tonight trying to laugh away the seen people really be awful. You can't Bush deficit." try out your material-like in a com- The line everyone remembered edy club, the way comedians do. You was this: "We know the NRA's posi- open and close in the same night-- tion," Bush said. "Guns don't kill peo- and in front of a very powerful audi- ple-grapes do." ence." Like everyone else, he had to com- ment about the puppies. He said he At Marion Barry's Expense was glad one of them was a boy. The mayor-who did not attend "Now Congress will have to be more specific when they refer to that SOB the Gridiron this year-managed to in the White House." get a few dishonorable mentions. A Marion Barry character-wearing an About the Soviet elections, he said: angel's wings and white robes--sang "I had a feeling Yeltsin would win- (to the tune of "Granada"): once I saw his opponent on television Why must I make news with the riding around in a tank." room that I cheese At the end he got serious-with At Ramada? one final yuk-yuk. "Laughter is part I can't make à stop without find- of the magic of America-the magic ing some cop of our politics and our press. A year At Ramada. from now-gosh, a week from now-you'll have all sorts of new ma- Forget all those topics involving the terial," Bush said to the crowd. "I tropics, wish you happy hunting. I wish you And pour me a subpoena colada. laughter in your work. And I promise Even the president couldn't resist. "I'm worried about the situation in to do my part Remember Pearl Harbor." D.C.," said Bush. "You'd think the White House would be safe from Who Writes This Stuff? crime. But last night Barbara was headed out the door to walk Millie, The campy skits are written by the looked back and said: 'Cover me." Gridiron members-after all, print journalists are professional writers. Special correspondent Cristina del The president's jokes this year were Sesto contributed to this report. NYT 4/4 AI Bush Takes Mubarak Out to the Ball Game By MAUREEN DOWD nouncer boomed, there was "the Special to The New York Times President of Egypt - Mubarak." Al- until the fourth inning. But at one point the Orioles got a runner to sec- BALTIMORE, April 3 - The two though the name Williams got a roar ond, and pointing to him Mr. Bush ex- Presidents sat in the sky box, watch- from the crowd, the name Mubarak plained to the Egyptian President, ing the baseball game with their Ori- provoked only silent wonderment. who said he had seen baseball on tele- oles caps, their hot dogs, their pickles, Hosni Mubarak tried on his Orioles vision but never in person, that the their horseradish, their Cokes in Ori- cap for the Eqyptian journalists - player had a chance of scoring by oles plastic souvenir cups, their going all the way around the bases who seemed befuddled at being player lineup sheet on White House and reaching home. whisked to Baltimore to watch men in stationery, their little white binocu- (As it turned out, the Orioles did a costume hitting balls with bats - and lars and a black secure phone. bit more running around the bases, was asked by American reporters and won, 5-4, in 11 innings, 6 innings The announcer at Memorial Sta- how he was enjoying his first baseball after the Presidential party left.) dium came on the loudspeaker to say game. As a crowd of 54,000 cheered, Mr. there were some celebrities in attend- "Very good teacher," he said, smil- Bush had opened the game by, run- ance for the season opener between ing at President Bush. Over the paper ning out onto the field in his shirt- the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston plates and a cut-glass relish tray, the sleeves - and black and orange tie in Red Sox. There was Ted Williams, the captain of the 1948 Yale baseball honor of the Orioles' colors - to rock star Joan Jett and, the an- throw out the first pitch. team was explaining some of the fine The President, who keeps his old points of the American pastime to his first baseman's mitt from Yale inside guest. "Of course," Mr. Mubarak said, his desk drawer in the Oval Office and says he still gets the itch to pointing to Mr. Bush, "he was the throw, looked eager today as he captain of the biggest team in the stepped up to the mound. At Yale, Mr. United States." Bush was known as good field, erratic President Bush grinned. "That's bat. "He bats right-handed, he throws what-I told him," he confessed. left," the announcer said. "He's the The two leaders - sitting in a box 41st President of the United States." with Egyptian officials, Secretary of The ball arced up and to the right, a State James A. Baker 3d; the director little high and outside, and the Oriole of the Office of Management and catcher Mickey Tettleton snagged it over his right shoulder with little ef- Budget, Richard G. Darman; the fort. White House chief of staff, John H. Sununu; Mr. Williams, and the base- When the reporters went up the sky box later to quiz the President on how ball commissioner, A. Bartlett Gia- he thought he had performed, they matti - mixed light talk about the mentioned that it looked a little high game with serious foreign policy dis- and outside. "High and outside," he cussion. repeated, with mock umbrage, insist- It was unclear who was running ing that the catcher "caught it before it started breaking." things back in Washington since so many of the President's advisers and aides had felt the need to accompany him on this important mission. Secre- tary of Defense Dick Cheney and Sec- retary of State Baker each flew over in their own helicopters, and the na- tional security adviser, Brent Scow- croft, and Marlin Fitzwater, the President's spokesman, and several other top aides were all on hand as well. President Bush had a hard time ex- plaining the game to his guest at first because the first run was not scored NEW YORK TIMES 5 APRIL 1989 Pg. 22 The Man Who Got the Pentagon's Attention self-confidence. By ANDREW ROSENTHAL pressure to cut $6.3 billion out of the fense Department will depend "He came into the building with a Special to The New York Times 1990 military budget, initiate man- greatly on his subordinates and on his squeaky clean, nice guy, personable WASHINGTON, April 4 - The agement reforms promised by Mr. relationships with the military, the image," said another officer. "Now in Monday morning after he surprised Bush and begin his diplomatic role in White House and Congress. the back of everybody's minds is the and angered the officer corps by slap- the North Atlantic Treaty Organiza- On March 24 when he saw The thought that we better think things ping down the Air Force Chief of Staff tion. Washington Post, in which General through with this guy." in public for discussing policy with Lower-level staff members are Welch was quoted as saying he had But many uniformed officers were members of Congress, Secretary of largely barred from Mr. Cheney's talked to influential Congressmen incensed. Their anger cooled by the Defense Dick Cheney gathered the convocations, which are limited to the about the controversy over the MX end of last week, but a sense of dis- Pentagon's top civilian officials in his principal.players in the decision at and Midgetman nuclear missiles, the trust lingered, and they complained third-floor conference room. hand; he made his initial choices for Secretary seized the moment. Ex- that Mr. Cheney, the outsider, had He exuded, some of them said, an top Pentagon jobs in tight secrecy, al- pecting. to be asked about General violated a rule of behavior. "Praise in air of satisfaction about his dramatic lowing only two or three subordinates Welch at his first news conference, he public, chastise in private," said one show of power. In his clipped, just- into the process, and typically, he decided to respond firmly. officer. the-facts style, Mr. Cheney said that brought in people he knew. One ap- Later in the day, he drove the new On the same day that he chastised he had since met with Gen. Larry D. pointment that has caused particular ground rules home, calling General General Welch, Mr. Cheney issued a Welch and that they had reached an comment in the officer corps is that Welch into his office and saying that curious memorandum that said it "understanding." of a trusted Congressional aide, he would not allow the generals to was illegal to pass sensitive informa- "He was very polite, but firm, and David S. Addington, whom Mr. "get out in front" on matters of poli- tion to contractors, spy on military he clearly felt he had gotten his politi- Cheney has given the office next door cy, even though discussions like the suppliers, or use government infor- cal mileage out of that move," one of to his. To do-so, Mr. Cheney moved one General Welch had were com- mation "for private gain." the officials recalled. "It was a pre- out a uniformed officer, and revived mon. But Mr. Cheney also told the All very obvious, but also part of meditated shot and it served its pur- the post of Special Assistant, vacant general that the matter was closed, "setting the tone." pose." in the Reagan Administration. officials said.. "Unlike with Welch, the memo was It was also only one of several occa- In some ways, the appointments re- So far, the reviews are mixed. not inspired by an incident," a Penta- sions, albeit the most dramatic, in the flect exactly what the incident with "He's got our attention now," said a gon official said. "It was to make the 17 days since Mr. Cheney took office General Welch did: Mr. Cheney's senior officer about the public rebuke point that Cheney wants to have an in which he has moved to assert con- keen awareness that the exercise of of the general. Like some others, the above-board operation, that he's here trol over the Pentagon's vast bureau- his statutory authority over the De- officer gave Mr. Cheney credit for and serious." cracy. "It set a tone for the way the new boss is going to operate," is the way one official put it. So far, the "tone" has mixed Mr. Cheney's much-advertised drive and political instinct with a steely-man- agement style. "I don't feel like I'm engaged in any kind of struggle with anyone for control of the deparment," he said today while reflecting with a group of reporters about the rebuke to General Welch. But, he added, "It's necessary from time to time to lay down markers so people know what to expect of them." People who have worked with Mr. Cheney before know what that means. As Secretary of Defense he is demonstrating the same abhorrence of "leaks" and penchant for inner-cir- cle councils that were his earmarks as chief of staff to President Ford and as a senior Republican on the House Intelligence Committee. Mr. Cheney personally takes care of contacts between the Pentagon and the White House, speeding across the Potomac River almost daily to meet with President Bush or Brent Scow- croft, the national security adviser. He fits in easily. A close relationship with Mr. Scowcroft dates back to the Ford days, when Mr. Scowcroft was national security adviser; Mr. Cheney is a fly-fishing partner of James A. Baker 3d, the Secretary of State, and encouraged him to buy a ranch in Wyoming last year. "Obviously Baker is going to pro- tect his own interests and Cheney will protect his," said a Pentagon official who knows both. "But it's not going to be a feud like Caspar Weinberger and George Shultz." The 48-year-old Secretary's sched- ule is packed. Today, as on most days, he was at work by 7 A.M., and had 20 events, Including a Rose Garden cere- mony and a National Security Council meeting, on a schedule that would not get him home until about 10:30 P.M. This frantic pace is not simply a matter of style; Mr. Cheney is under 27 ESSAY William Safire 'You Tell Him This' WASHINGTON about: free elections under some sort srael's Prime Minister, Yitzhak of international supervision. Shamir, sent this invitation to As if he had been waiting for that Egypt's President, Hosni Muba- precise formulation, The President of rak: Stay an extra day in Washington Egypt leaned forward and put his fin- and let us meet in President Bush's of- ger on my chest. "You tell him this. fice. The Egyptian refused. You tell him if he is willing to have Mr. Bush, who had been asked by elections under international supervi- Israel to facilitate these talks, did sion, I'll help." nothing to bring the Israeli and Arab How much will he help? leaders together. Instead, he dam- "I'll help to the maximum." aged his credibility as mediator by As God, and the V.P., our national calling for "the end of the occupa- security adviser, the Egyptian Am- tion" of territories Israel considers bassador and our nail-nibbling Chief vital to its security. of Protocol are my witnesses, that's Why did Mr. Bush gratuitously in- what the man said. It's a good bet sult Israel's elected leader by an- that's also what Mr. Mubarak said nouncing his conclusion before Mr. privately to Mr. Bush and Mr. Quay[e. Shamir could even make his case? Let us now review the state of play. At a reception for Mr. Mubarak in Israel can be expected to hedge its the home of the Vice President, I put free-elections proposal with restric- that to Brent Scowcroft, our national tions, among them: not until the inti- security adviser. He would say only, fada violence stops; no P.L.O. candi- "We did not intend to make news." dates; the first stage only for munici- If that is true, then the State De- pal offices, and the polls supervised by partment aide who drafted the state- ment, the N.S.C., which cleared it, and the President who spoke the blunt words did not consider as newswor- thy a U.S. call for Israel to get out of the West Bank. Such ignorance of a change of position would reveal in- credible ineptitude at all levels. I think the statement was not a mis- take, but was a Bush-Baker calcula- tion, more heavy-handed than even- handed, to pressure Israel and pla- cate the P.L.O. Many in the diplo- Israelis with invited observers. matic press corps swallowed State This opening position will be Department protestations that noth- frowned on by Egypt as "not enough," ing was new, but Barry Schweid of dismissed by ABC News as "warmed- the A.P. and Tom Friedman of The over Camp David" and denounced by New York Times put that major Yasir Arafat, who worries about los- change in their leads. ing his authority to freely elected The Egyptian Ambassador, Raouf local Palestinian leaders. el-Reedy, spotted me at the fruit- However, the Shamir offer pro- kebab table and motioned me over to vides running room for mediators - meet his boss. I cheerfully identified even those who impose settlement myself as a right-wing pro-Israeli terms before negotiations begin. hawk and asked Mr. Mubarak why he The intifada could cool it without had refused to meet Mr. Shamir in agreeing to ice it; non-P.L.O. candi- the Oval Office. dates could proclaim their P.L.O. af- "I once offered to go to Jerusa- fection; the municipal officers could lem," said President Mubarak ani- have a territories-wide function; and matedly, "and he issued the invita- while the Zionism-is-racism U.N. tion, but then he started talking about would hardly be disinterested, supervi- his three 'no's,' so how could I go? sion by a few countries with demo- What would be the public opinion?" cratic experience would be acceptable. He left out the part about condition- Now watch how the bash-Israel ing his visit on Israeli acceptance of an crowd tries to turn "free elections" international conference, but my con- into dirty words. Not "new"? Nothing cern was this week's snub: What would could be newer to most Arabs than a have been the harm in meeting in secret ballot. Arab regimes do not tol- Washington, since both were in town? erate elections that offer genuine "To talk about what?" he counter- choices; they do not want West Bank queried. and Gaza Palestinians to lead the way Free elections on the West Bank because democracy is contagious. and Gaza, for a starter. But President Mubarak says to tell "Free?" He made a skeptical face. Mr. Shamir he is ready to "help to the It's not for the press to negotiate for maximum" to conduct such elections anybody, but since he was asking, I under international supervision. Mes- threw in the compromise being bruited sage passed. Worth following up. NEW YORK TIMES, 4/ /89, P.A conflicts of interest. This was the point On March 8, the day after Mr. Eagle- where the bid by former Senator John burger informed Congress about his Tower to become Secretary of Defense $440,000 severance arrangement, Mr. encountered problems. His disclosure Scowcroft filed a second amendment to that he advised contractors on arms his financial disclosure statement. The control issues soon after leaving his new amendment showed, for the first post as arms control negotiator was a time, that Mr. Scowcroft owned one significant factor in his rejection by the share of stock in Kissinger Associates. Senate. He said in the statement that he had Mr. Scowcroft, as national security "arranged to sell in the very near fu- adviser, is not subject to the confirma- ture" the share for a price between tion process. He told the White House $50,001 and $100,000. he had to disclose only the name of Kis- In two separate interviews in March, singer Associates, not the specific Mr. Kissinger said the share had been clients he worked with, because he was bought back. He later explained that he merely a consultant to the firm. had valued the share by using an out- Indeed, when he described his posi- side investor's previous offer for a tions in his financial disclosure state- stake in the privately held firm as a ment, filed on Feb. 21, Mr. Scowcroft benchmark. Mr. Kissinger said that put down "consultant" but did not men- Mr. Scowcroft's share was then valued tion that he was also a vice chairman. as if it were equal to 1 percent of the He finally disclosed the position in a company, or one out of 100 shares. third amendment to his filing on March Error on Size of Holding 17, one day after a reporter asked him why he had not reported it. According to the company's latest Kissinger Implied Wider Role annual report, however, Mr. Scowcroft does not own one-hundredth of Kissin- In an interview last January, how- ger Associates, but one nine-hundredth, ever, Mr. Kissinger gave the impres- since the firm has 900 shares outstand- sion that Mr. Scowcroft's work for clients was more direct than that of a ing. Government officials are prohibited consultant. "We divided them up," he from accepting gifts of more than said of his clients, through an informal nominal value from anyone who could arrangement among Mr. Eagleburger, Mr. Scowcroft and himself. be significantly affected by their ac- tions. If the stock purchase deal were Gary Davis, general counsel of the intended to be an indirect severance Office of Government Ethics, said it payment, it would have had to have was unclear whether this additional in- been disclosed as such and approved formation about Mr. Scowcroft's posi- tion would have required him to dis- by Government attorneys. When Mr. Kissinger was questioned close the names of the clients he further about the transaction, Mr. worked with. Masin, the attorney, responded, "A Mr. Scowcroft's public disclosure subsequent review of the documents, form indicates that he will disqualify however, determined that rather than 1 himself from specific matters involv- percent, General Scowcroft owns one ing companies he holds stock in and share of Kissinger Associates." former clients such as Kissinger As- Mr. Masin added that this resulted sociates, but not from matters involv- from an "honest mistake of recollec- ing the firm's clients. tion" and that no money had yet Mr. Eagleburger agreed, on the changed hands before the transaction other hand, to disqualify himself for was revised. one year from any matter involving the "Proper disclosure of the transac- clients he dealt with, and under Senate tion will be made by General Scowcroft pressure he adopted the same standard at the appropriate time," he said. for a few other, confidentially disclosed foreign clients. Differing disclosure practices were an issue addressed broadly by Presi- dent Bush's ethics commission, which called for more uniformity across all arms of the Government. Scowcroft's Stake Adjustment Made On Stock Sale The Bush ethics commission also ad- dressed the severing of financial ties between incoming Government offi- cials and their previous employers, an issue also pertinent to Mr. Scowcroft. 26. SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 INTERVIEWS sea power APRIL 1989 Pg. 15 A Visit with the Watchstanders Interview with Secretary of the Navy William L. Ball III Sea Power Editor in Chief James D. Hessman and Con- tributing Editor Vincent C. Thomas recently met with Secretary of the Navy William L. Ball III in his offices at the Pentagon 10 discuss the state of today's Navy; Thomas met again with the SecNav in Key West, Fla., and accompanied him on a visit to the Navy's PHM [patrol hydrofoil missileship] squadron there. Following is the text of the interrupted two-site interview (completed, it should be noted, prior to final Senate action on the nomination of former Sen. John Tower to be secretary of defense). SEA POWER: Do you have any guidance yet on what cuts you will have to take as a result of President's Bush stated goal of allowing only zero growth, plus inflation, in the defense budget? BALL: We got our official word today, in the wake of the president's speech, that we need to find an additional amount somewhere between $2.0 and $2.2 billion in FY 1990. These are outlays, overall Navy. If you sit back and look at how the preparation of the FY 1990 budget went, we won more than our share of fights within the Pentagon on budget issues. And we had a pretty good package that went to the Hill. Of course, we sort of knew at the time that we might have to re-open the issue. We don't look forward to do- ing that, but now we have to bite that bullet. But it is so much better to have to face it now rather than in the middle of the fiscal year ... BALL: What worries us is that Congress has not spoken Secretary of the Navy William L. Ball III, shown here accompanied yet, and we don't know where we are going to end up. by French and American officers and other dignitaries, was a prin- Given the strong words in the president's speech, I feel cipal guest of honor at the Aisne-Marne American Military Cemetery that there will be strong support for the services and for in France, where he spoke at a Memorial Day service last year com- the Department of Defense from the White House for memorating the 70th anniversary of the Barile of Belleau Wood. 6-26 holding the line at where the president now has gone-to July 1918. Scowcroft 37 B 6 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 INNOVATION CONTINUED development. One of the most valuable attributes of this pro- the services, or establishing computer linkage between simi- gram is that it uncovers potential problem areas prior to the lar ranges, could well provide more effective and efficient commitment of large investments. It is the Navy's primary testing as well as training. means of transitioning new high-payoff concepts into weapon The Navy plays an active role in international armaments systems. and because of its importance it will continue to grow cooperation. Meaningful collaboration with our allies in de- over the next several years. veloping systems that meet common requirements is becom- Although the ATD program was allocated only 25 percent ing increasingly important as weapon needs expand. costs of the overall advanced technology development account, the increase, and funding shrinks. success of the program has convinced us to apply the ATD For any number of reasons, there are certain areas of tech- principles to other programs. consolidated under a single nology in which the United States does not excel. Working manager. Our goal is for 50 percent of the program to con- with our allies helps offset the resultant disadvantages. But sist of technology transition ATDs by FY 1991. This includes there are other reasons for cooperating in the development need-driven project selection, closed-ended tasks, and up- and acquisition of systems and equipment: the elimination front transition planning. In essence, we select the highest of duplicative R&D, for example; enhanced interoperability payoff programs for demonstration. review them annually for and standardization; economies of scale; and accelerated a vote of confidence, and get them into full-scale engineer- availability dates of the systems and equipment needed. ing in three to five years. The Navy is for all of those reasons aggressively pursuing cooperative programs with our allies. Among the avenues fol- Aggregate Gains From IR&D lowed are: Independent research and development (IR&D) also has Senior national representative (SNR) meetings between provided significant benefits to the Navy. Virtually every Navy the director of research, development. test, and evaluation system has at least some of its roots in IR&D. The IR&D ef- and allied counterparts which provide the forum to focus in- fort. which encourages contractors to mount their own ternational multi-lateral and bilateral collaborative programs. research and development programs. not only allows a con- Synergistic data exchange agreements with foreign siderable hedging of the Navy R&D investment, but also en- governments that provide for the sharing of data and tech- sures a competent "marketplace" when the Navy acquires nology. Currently. 300 of these agreements are in effect. systems. The NATO cooperative R&D program. established by Although there is no "free lunch." the IR&D effort more section 1103 of the FY 1986 DOD Authorization Act. to en- than pays for itself. Industry is allowed to use a modest share courage cooperative projects between the United States and of its overhead costs to fund the program. In the aggregate. one or more allies to develop new conventional defense equip- industry recovers about $600 million from the Navy, and for ment and munitions and modify existing military equipment that we gain access to nearly $5 billion of military-relevant to meet U.S. and allied requirements. Since program incep- technology. tion, the Navy has been involved in 22 cooperative projects Looking at the IR&D program from a broader perspec- totaling $324 million in U.S. and allied funding. tive. a recent study on IR&D found that, on the margin, for Foreign weapons evaluation (FWE) and NATO compara- each dollar increase in DOD IR&D invested, longer-term tive test programs. which assess foreign weapons systems and IR&D funding increased by two dollars. The DOD contrib- technologies to determine their potential for U.S. service use. utes about 40 cents of each IR&D dollar; but 95 percent of Some 59 funded projects were included in the FY 1988 pro- the IR&D effort addresses DOD needs. From any point of gram. at a cost of $25.1 million. It is estimated that if. the view. IR&D is cost-effective and well leveraged. Navy had to develop similar systems unilaterally. it would The Navy, in conjunction with the other services, OSD have cost over $1.4 billion in FY 1988 dollars. (Office of the Secretary of Defense), and industry. has been We plan to increase Navy and Marine Corps involvement exploring new initiatives to make IR&D more efficient and in international cooperative programs. International cooper- even more cost-effective. The Navy's technical community ation will ensure access to and sharing of allied technologi- has been tasked to increase its interaction with the industry cal developments to build the most operationally capable and IR&D effort. Since the technical evaluation process is the cost-effective weapons systems needed by the United States principal method of data exchange. its emphasis will be in- and our allies. creased. both in quality and frequency. In a related effort. The nation-and the Navy-relies on a forward-deployed Navy planning data will be more accessible to industry. strategy: our national as well as our economic interests re- The services are under increasing pressure to upgrade test quire it. We also know that if we are called upon to go "head and evaluation of weapons and systems. As we look to the to head" with our primary adversary we will be outnumbered. future, we can see that our facilities will be hard pressed to Future Navy RDT&E strategy and plans must take into ac- fully test advanced stealth, counterstealth, and ASW weapon count the "first to fight" global and regional responsibilities systems and complex battle group arrangements. We have a of our naval forces. the nation's critical need to develop and master plan to upgrade existing T&E facilities, but we need produce significantly more effective weapon systems. and our to be more bold in execution. There are, however, manage- quantitative manpower limit vis-a-vis that of our potential ad- ment approaches that can assist us in alleviating the situa- versaries. We must ensure that the future does not find us tion. For example, modeling and simulation may offer a more with too many programs and too few dollars. In a time of practical way to forecast potential operational capability in declining resources we must have the courage to push the very the earliest stages of the acquisition process. To reduce or best ideas, while understanding the risk. to ensure that the eliminate inter- and intra-service duplication. and that be- needs of our future naval forces are met. Our research and tween R&D and training facilities, sharing facilities among development program is the key to our future. B 5 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 WATCHSTANDERS CONTINUED That means you are going to have to take quite a whack a zero real growth and nothing less But. like it always BALL That means it is not a cosmetic reduction But 11. it still will be a struggle. that is not a final figure What we will do now IS pro- vide the acting secretary of defense. Mr Taft [William How is this going to impinge upon what you certainly Howard Taff IV]. specific proposals for how we would consider a vital aspect of naval operations-the floor take such a reduction Those proposals are due to him of 15 carriers? Will you be able to maintain that toward the end of the month. But I also have talked with number of battle groups? Senator Tower and gotten his perspective on that-and BALL With this number I am confident. yes This is an he. of course. will get briefed by Mr. Taft. Then the issue that will he joined this year. no matter what process moves on to the White House and the Office of changes are put to the budget usell It is clear that we Management and Budget. So before the budget is in final will have that amendment |un amendment to reduce the form. there will be a lot of give and take. number of carrier battle groups| again. as we did last year. in the Senate It may be drawn a little differently. Are you going to have to address that overall reduc- but " may affect [the aircraft carriers USSI Midway tion when you make your first appearance before [CV-41] and [USS] Coral Sea [CV-43]. and it may affect Congress [in March]? others. BALL: I am sure the House Appropriations Committee What I hope we can do is not put the focus on force will want to know the justification for what budget we structure per se. which Congress tends 10 do. but in the have and. in as much detail as we can provide. how we case of naval forces look at what the force structure sup- are going to take a reduction down to the new numbers ports. how It fits into the deterrent. and in the case spe- He have been given The Department of the Navy pro- citically of carriers how they serve as instruments of the gram was at about 1.4 percent real growth in FY 1990 in president's diplomacy-and what you can do with a force the budget that 1131 submitted to Congress by President of 15 versus what you can do with a smaller force I was Reagan. These new numbers will take us down below very glad that in his confirmation hearing Senator [John] that and we will be below the level of zero real growth Tower had a chance 10 speak to that He knows and un- derstands that issue far better than most. Does that mean you are likely to have to cut your ship and aircraft procurement programs? You have seen no indication thus far. with President BALL Well. everything is on the table Of course. the Bush coming in. and with [Lt. Gen.] Brent Scowcroft five-year shiphuilding program no have in the budget at- [USAF. Ret.] as the new national security advisor. ready has had some changes to II. He had to take two that the commitments to which the Navy very likely Los Angeles class [SSN-688 nuclear-powered attack) will have to respond are being diminished at all? submarines out. which we did not want to do. and had BALL They have made It clear that there will be a top- to defer an amphibious ship for a year But I want to see to-bottom review of strategy and objectives. and that how we can make this kind of reduction minimizing im- everything will be on the table But there have been no pact on the shipbuilding program and on the aircraft indications given yet that the commitments given to the plan. Navy will decrease at all. We have. after several months of hard work sent to In the past. when such reviews have been undertaken. Congress it long-term aircraft-procurement program. with very often the Navy's commitments have increased And the Navy and Marine Corps in agreement about what certainly one can argue that. given developments of the our long-term plans are going to be This is the first last four or five years-prior to the INF Intermediate- time we ever have had that kind of coordinated Navy. range nuclear forces) treaty-and the way in which inter- Marine Corps aircraft acquisition plan setting forth our national forces have changed and international disputes requirements and our program as to how we are going to have changed. there is a greater need. not a lesser need. get there. for the ability to display the capacity to project power into many of these troubled regions. That would argue That indicates the MV-22 [tilt-rotor Osprey] and the for more emphasis. not less. on naval aviation and on AV-8B [Harrier V/STOL (vertical short takeoff and our submarine programs And more emphasis on the landing) jumpjet] are solidly fenced into that kinds of R&D (research and development] that we need program? to stay ahead of the threat of the 1990s-air. surface. and BALL Correct no have two programs. the ATA (ad- subsurface. vanced tactical aircraft] and the MV-22. on the verge of I can't prejudge what this strategy review will yield. entering into production. plus the LRAACA Hong-range But I am confident that it will focus on those kinds of air-ASW-capable aircraft] program issues. and marry up those issues with what the presi- dent's objectives are going to be Are you happy with the ATA. or would you rather have gone along with a variation of the A-6 [Intruder Do you have any further information to impart now attack aircraft]? about the status of the Navy budget? BALL I am convinced that to deal with the sophisticated BALL We have moved another step in the budget threats we see emerging. not just in the Soviet Union but review We now have the numbers across the five-year in the air-defense capabilities a number of other coun- defense plan. and those numbers total some $22 billion tries are investing in-look at what the Libyans have as- In new reduction] over five years sembled in the way of an air-defense capability-we need B 7 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 are short of maximum efficient rates-but, nonetheless. WATCHSTANDERS CONTINUED rates that we think we can sustain in budget review. The the technology of the ATA program. We have looked at one area where we have had to accept a shortage for the that technology very carefully and with a lot of research. mid-1990 time frame is in medium attack. and Il has proven that it is a system with capabilities that we have to have if we are going to maintain the power- Do you have a concern over the steady decline in the projection capabilities that we have in the fleet today. ability to procure enough ships and aircraft, and then Nothing, I think. is more central to the future of naval Congress saying: "You have gotten by for five years aviation than that investment. It is a steep investment. without procuring what you say you need, and don't and up front It IS a tremendous cost to us getting ready seem to be in any great trouble. Therefore, we are to produce the airplane. But it is worth it because it is simply not going to fund in the future those things so central to what capabilities uc know we are going to you think you need to bring yourselves back up to a have to have. We have a team that thus far has made certain level.``? good progress-the McDonnell-Douglas/General Dynam- BALL: The five-year defense program that was prepared ics team that has been assembled and that won the de- in 1987 I think was put together at a time when it was velopment contract. abundantly clear that the climate on Capitol Hill for fur- But that program has caused us to go without some ther increases in defense spending already was eroding. things that we would like to have. When I took office. we already were in the process at the White House of realizing. having just gone through Aren't you going to be short a good many combat budget summit negotiations. that Congress was going to aircraft, given the fact that you have had to slip from continue to seek reductions in defense spending Out of what you hoped, three or four years ago, to get in the the overall defense budget we lost $33 billion in the 1987 outyears. and that you now are going to project that budget summit. And I had to participate at the table dur- slippage still further? In FY 1990 you are asking for ing the summit negotiations with Secretary Carlucci. only about 46 percent of what you forecast in then-Secretary of the Treasury Baker, and OMB Director FY 1987 you were going to get funded in FY 1990. Miller. I saw clearly what we were up against in the de- How much is that kind of slippage going to hamper bate over defense spending versus domestic spending. the Navy's capability? And the administration was trying to seek not cuts. but BALL: In our study we acknowledge a shortage in our reduced increases in certain domestic programs- medium attack aircraft. Now. that doesn't mean we are Medicare and other domestic entitlement programs. In short in the numbers of aircraft we will need to flesh out Washington, you know, when we talk about budget cuts 15 carrier decks with 13 active wings and two reserve that means something quite different from what a fellow wings, plus the Marine Corps medium attack squadrons. outside the Beltway means when he talks about budget Where we will have a shortage. though. is when we add cuts. Most taxpayers think that when you cut the budget up all of our total requirements for all purposes. includ- you spend less than you did the year before. But that is ing training, R&D. expected attrition. et cetera. We have not the case in Washington, where a budget cut means a shortage that will emerge-we don't have it now-in you spend less than you would have spent had you con- the mid-1990s. and there are some things we are going to tinued the budget increase that was built in to the entitle- have to do to adjust to that. We had considered the A-6F ment program. So there was a hue and cry in 1987. and [Intruder attack aircraft upgrade] program, but were un- there is with this budget. as to budget cuts in domestic successful in getting it through Congress. The A-6G pro- and social programs. But they are not budget cuts at gram was considered and a package was assembled and all-they are recommended changes in the rate of in- submitted within the Defense Department for review. It crease. The budget for Medicare. for instance. continues didn't succeed, either. But it was a program that would to go up. but the proposals on the table are to reduce the have filled this gap in medium attack aircraft prior to the amount of increase. The Department of the Navy budget full introduction of the ATA. which under the current in FY 1990. I want to point out, will be-for the first plan requires us to rely on older A-6Es and do some time in our country's history-less than the amount of things to update them through the SWIP [system weapon money spent on Medicare. improvement program] underway now. But we have to assume a certain risk in dealing with Turning from hardware to people, how are these that shortage in the mid-1990s. I can't fault DOD offi- reductions which you know you are going to have to cials for not giving us our day in court, for we had a somehow make-$22 billion over five years-going to thorough debate about that capability and what this par- affect people, with regard to the programs you need ticular proposal would bring to our medium-attack capa- to keep aviators in, to make sure you have the re- bility. However, I was firm in not wanting to make any enlistment bonuses you need to keep top-flight techni- sacrifices in the A-12 investment. cians in, et cetera.? Will there be some real hardships At the same time we will continue with the F-14D coming up? [Tomcat fighter upgrade] program, which is holding up BALL: If we manage it properly it will not affect the pretty well. We have a plan now for a combination of things that are important to our people. If we do a good new production and a re-manufacture of F-14s that will job of planning this budget change, and absorbing these be supported by Congress. We also have proposed a con- reductions, if we do it right. we will avoid impacting on tinuation of the EA-6B [Prowler electronic warfare air- people and the programs that are necessary for our craft] through re-manufacture and a continuation of the retention and recruiting efforts. other production lines for tactical aircraft at rates that But let me say this: The Navy in the past has shown B 8 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 publicized-right now no one knows very much about WATCHSTANDERS CONTINUED some of these initiatives? BALL: You are right. We have initiated a lot of things all too frequently in times of budget cuts that it has that have not gotten public recognition from the media or moved to absorb budget cuts in areas that did affect peo- Congress. Beginning in the early 1980s the Navy under- ple adversely. And. if there is one thing that I have al- took some major changes in the acquisition system. I ready told our budget reviewers I want to avoid, it is a guess the most fundamental change was the degree of repetition of past mistakes. competition we sought across the board in all of our pro- The accounts that seem inevitably to emerge as candi- grams, and the savings we gained from that, in ship con- dates for reduction during times of budget constraints are struction and aircraft procurement across the board, still accounts that do relate directly to readiness and people. are paying us a big dividend today. We are benefiting now from the highest levels of readi- We have worked hard to streamline the acquisition ness we have seen in the fleet since World War II process, and although the "Ill Wind" revelations [the so- called "Pentagon procurement scandals"] have resulted in You have had a chance to see that first hand in a a lot of criticism from Congress, those critics don't real- number of places, have you not? ize what we have done to address that problem in ad- BALL: I have made an effort to get around in the fleet vance of these allegations. Indeed, one of the things we and see many different aspects of the force at work on a did was to set up a fraud-awareness program under the deployed basis at sea, and have urged members of Con- Naval Investigative Service [NIS] to teach people work- gress to do that, too. Not just go visit our ships along- ing in the acquisition field how to detect fraud, how to side the pier or visit our shore installations, but get out find it, and what the symptoms were. and see our people at work at sea. We have set up pro- grams to fly members to the Sixth Fleet [in the Mediter- Has that program borne any positive dividends so ranean], and to other places where ships and aircraft are far? operating at sea, because we want them to see how our BALL: It has. I guess the biggest positive dividend is sailors and Marines are doing the job. that a person who had gone through that training was, because of the information gained in that program. able I gather you visited one carrier that at that time had to contact NIS and provide the first lead that has led to almost the highest degree of readiness ever attained in the investigation-which is still underway, but which peacetime clearly is going to identify fraudulent activities that we BALL: I went aboard the [carrier USS] Forrestal have to root out. [CV-59] when she was deployed in the North Arabian The president is totally supportive of an aggressive, Sea, and the carrier wing aboard had a phenomenal tough, zero-tolerance program to counter the kind of record of readiness. That was a tremendous tribute to the waste and fraud that has plagued defense procurement people in the wing, and also to the logistical and supply since 1776. And we have plenty of history of abuses that effort, which perhaps was unmatched for a short period have occurred in the past. of time, that we were able to maintain for those units in The president looks at it, I think. in exactly the right the Persian Gulf and in the North Arabian Sea. way: It is a disservice to our men and women in uniform But let me say that there are no easy cuts in making whenever unscrupulous individuals or companies try to this $33 billion reduction in the FY 1988-89 program. take advantage of the government and try to provide less We already have had to squeeze the shore establishment. than the very best that our money can buy. We are just We have had to cut back on certain types of moderniza- not going to put up with second-rate efforts on the part tion programs for ships and aircraft. We have had to take of contractors, managers. and those who are charged a tuck here and there where in the past we have had with buying the best equipment for our sailors and more generous levels of funding. Having done that, it is Marines. especially tough to look for further efficiencies, but I The president spoke. during his visit to the [aircraft think we can do it and maintain a balanced program. carrier USS] America [CV-66] of being on board a sub- And let me say one more thing that is very important: marine during World War II. The submarine. which was The president knows how tough it is going to be, and under a depth charge attack. had rescued him, after he spoke to that in his State of the Union address. He had been shot down. He spoke in a very poignant way of knows it is not easy to provide more defense for less how, while sitting in that submarine as a naval aviator. money, but he also knows that we can always be more he hoped that those who had put that submarine together efficient, always drive a tougher bargain with our con- were as concerned about its survivability, and the integri- tractors, always reduce the overhead, cut the layers of ty of that hull, as he was when he was riding out that oversight and excessive management that actually inhibit attack. efficiency. We know that under his leadership we can do And that said it all! We need to instill in the industry more, and we will do that. team, in the thousands of people who are a part of the acquisition system, that kind of sense of responsibility. I The Navy has initiated, and you certainly have fol- think we have the right idea and the right approach lowed up on, a number of management programs that among the vast majority of those who are participants in have streamlined the procurement process. And you the defense acquisition business. But the task is to root are inaugurating total quality management training. out that small number of people who still would seek How extensive is that program, and how do you think personal gain. it is going to affect what the Navy is doing in procurement? Also, how can those efforts be better It is amazing how quickly a couple of bad apples can B 9 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 WATCHSTANDERS CONTINUED sure as the budget is constrained to re-open some of ruin a whole barrel in this business. But no one ever those decisions and to stretch procurements over a longer goes back and points out the kinds of things you have period of time. just talked about, which is a tragedy. That, of course, drives up unit costs, and we should Going back to the fact that you have been in this avoid it. It may be that in some cases we can't avoid it, business for some years now-albeit from another because if it comes down to stretching out a procurement perspective for quite a while-you saw the turnaround line or shortchanging readiness and personnel, then we in the early 1980s from the horror stories of the late are going to have to look for a way to stretch. 1970s with regard to readiness, to overhauls being I think we have to protect the readiness of the force, delayed, to maintenance not being accomplished, to we have to protect what we talked about earlier, the people leaving the Navy at a great rate. You saw the things that are important to our people, and then seek to Navy come back. Are you concerned that you might be efficient in the acquisition of sustainability items as well see a recurrence of that kind of thing because of best we can. the current delays in overhauls, the lack of main- Now, on spares-aviation spares in particular-we tenance, spare-parts budgets being cut, et cetera? Is tightened down the screws on those accounts in 1987 and the potential there for a return to that kind of thing 1988, and now really have to assess carefully the impact unless you can make sure Congress understands the of that. I intend to lay that out before Congress, because problem? we do have high readiness levels in the fleet today, and BALL: Let me answer that in three ways. First, I draw there is no secret how we got there. We have invested a on my experience as a division officer in the early lot in the maintenance programs at the naval aviation 1970s-1970-1971-aboard a DDG [guided missile des- depots [NADEPs] and through competition have im- troyer], when I saw a ship struggling to maintain the lev- proved the efficiency of our aircraft maintenance el of readiness expected of it with a severe shortage of programs. spare parts, with morale problems in the crew because of But the great dividend we have received has been in a shortage of funds for PCS [permanent change of sta- readiness, and there is no significant sum of money that tion; PCS funds pay for transfers from one duty station we can take out of that program without paying a heavy to another], for those things that are basic to our way of price.. life in the Navy. And I saw how the penalties we pay over the long term when we shortchange those things There was a very interesting statistic that Admiral vastly outweigh the savings that the headquarters thinks Dunn [Vice Adm. Robert Dunn, assistant chief of we are getting in the near term. So now that I have a naval operations (air warfare)] cited a couple of years chance to see things from a different perspective, I am ago, the fact that the S-3 [Viking ASW aircraft] went determined we are going to avoid those kinds of mistakes up from a readiness rate of some 36 percent to above that create long-term costs for us, that create morale and 70 percent simply because adequate spare parts final- readiness problems. ly were available-and for no other reason. However, we have constrained parts of the budget that BALL: In FY 1988 we achieved our goal of 73 percent affect readiness and sustainability in preparing this budg- mission-capable for aircraft. Funding cuts in FY 1988 to et for FY 1990 and 1991, and there is just not much FY 1991 will cause the rate to decrease somewhat, but, more we can do to be more efficient there, because in general, that is a level we have to protect. when you cut those things any further it creates long- But there are no short cuts to readiness-it takes hard term problems. It is my vivid recollection of the trials work, and we simply must fund those elements we have that we had at sea on deck in 1970 and 1971 that remind to have. Now, we can always look for more efficient me daily of the need to avoid those mistakes. ways to provide logistical support and to achieve our maintenance objective. I visited [Naval Air Station] Have the pipelines for spares, and for weapons in North Island. [in Coronado, Calif.] and the air rework particular-which were almost to the full point before depot there, and it has just won a competition for inter- the Navy started backsliding two or three years ago- mediate maintenance on the F-14. That exercise demon- started to empty now? Are you going to have a hard strated to the civilian managers at that facility that by time maintaining the levels which you think you must really hustling and finding ways to cut costs during the have for really outstanding readiness? I see you are competition they went through that they could be more not buying as many Tomahawk, Standard, and Tri- efficient. That was a healthy exercise. and we have to dent missiles, for example. continue to do that sort of thing. BALL: Let me say two things. With regard to the pur- Our productivity improvements in shipyards and chases that provide us with sustainability-that is, the NADEPs and all of our other maintenance facilities are percentage of missiles in the bins, ammunition in the very important and are going to continue to pay a divi- bins, et cetera-we have set our goals and have made a dend as long as our leadership in the facilities main- lot of progress in buying the quantities that we should. tenance and engineering business aggressively continues We are now to the point where in many cases, and espe- to pursue cost-cutting moves. cially in many categories of missiles, we are close to but just short of our objective. Our plan now is to try to buy Would it be a correct assumption that over the last out that objective in a shorter period of time and main- three to four years there has been an upsurge in effi- tain the efficiencies of a high production rate, and then, ciency in the shore establishment, too, with regard to wherever we have attained that goal, shut down that the kind of thing you have just talked about? production line. BALL: Yes. In our shipyards, our NADEPs. and in our It worries me that there will be more and more pres- training establishment, I think we have wrung a lot of B 10 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 WATCHSTANDERS CONTINUED deal about. because the retention program has to have unnecessary overhead and inefficiency out of those sys- daily command attention. Nothing is higher on a com- tems. I have seen aggressive managers and leaders really manding officer's agenda. As the economy has continued go after those goals, and we have had tough competitions to be strong. it has become increasingly tough to keep like that at North Island. the technical rates in. But we know what the things are I also will cite the competition that Charleston Naval that drive our sailors out of the Navy. And the people in Shipyard [S.C.] won for some SSN [nuclear-powered at- Washington who are aware of those things, no matter tack submarine] overhauls. In Charleston we saw how how many good decisions they make, they can't substi- man hours required for overhaul of our submarines were tute for the effectiveness of a commanding officer and significantly reduced, with a sizable savings over some executive officer who know how important it is to keep retention high. of the recent overhauls performed in Charleston. Admiral Hines [Rear Adm. Dean H. Hines, now deputy com- mander for industrial and facility management, Naval Sea Earlier today, before you came aboard [the patrol Systems Command], then at Charleston and now at hydrofoil missileship] Taurus [PHM-3], I had the op- NAVSEA, drove those efficiencies into the program there portunity to discuss the impact of deployments with at Charleston. And it showed that, even with as signifi- the ship's cook. He commented that, with this ship, cant a mission and as large a workload as they main- "I'm out a lot, but I am back in without long deploy- tained down there, there still are ways to root out ments." That comment says a lot about the view inefficiency if people at all levels are vigilant. toward long deployments. But if you lose a couple of carriers, you are back into that cycle of longer In your tours through the fleet, and going back to deployments all over again. That must be of great concern to you. your own experiences as a division officer, have you encountered others in that position today who say: BALL: Well, it is. When the CNO [chief of naval opera- "Mr. Secretary, I am concerned now about what I see tions] set a six-month "cap" on the time away from with regard to morale, because we are not likely to home on deployments, which he has fought hard to get all the things we think we need to maintain our maintain, we were able to convince some, but not all. in Congress why that is important. readiness"? Is that type of problem coming back, or are we still at an acceptable level before there is a At my confirmation hearing, I was asked about carrier sharp downturn? force levels, and that aspect of operations I immediately BALL: Morale is, of course, a function of command and spoke to. We don't see any lessening of the commitments the Navy is asked to meet around the world with our leadership. And I have been very pleased to see that in most of the places I have been it has been very, very carrier battle groups. The program we have now will good. I make an effort to get down into the spaces, visit enable us to meet commitments and still keep deploy- with the chiefs, get onto the mess decks, and ask a lot of ment periods capped at six months. That's about the questions and see how things stand on the deck most we can go. Again, I have pointed out some of the plates horror stories of the past-when [the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier] Dwight D. Eisenhower [CVN-69] made You certainly can learn a lot in a hurry in the chiefs' that 247-day Indian Ocean deployment in 1980 with only mess, can't you? five days in port-and I have asked how many sailors BALL: You sure can! And I like to go down to main who made that deployment still are in the Navy. I'll bet that there are not many. control and talk with the engineers and visit with the watchstanders. It is a great tribute to the kind of leader- So when you compute the cost to the Navy of that ship we have in the senior enlisted grades right now that deployment, in order to do it right you would have to compute how much investment went down the tube in the the morale, the determination, and the professionalism of our watchstanders and those who are doing the jobs form of highly trained, skilled people who bagged it down there are remarkable. when they finally got back home. We know what those We have learned the hard way, and certainly know penalties are, and know what we have to do to avoid where some of the danger signs are. And I keep my eye paying those penalties. Our force structure, as it is now, enables us to meet on those. Every month, every quarter, we get reports on those commitments that we have on the horizon. To retention, on readiness. from the fleet commanders, and those who would suggest that we have to shrink the force look at all of the key indicators. But the best indicator, structure, we have to put the question of what commit- of course. is to get out and talk to our people ments we should drop in what areas of the world. and where we have to diminish our presence. Is retention starting to slide? BALL: It has been tough, but in the last month we had a Are you concerned over the increasing need to ensure good month for recruiting and retention. We met our that the ever-growing number of members of Con- recruiting goal in January for the first time in several gress who have had little or no military service really months. And our retention held well in the last quarter understand and appreciate this problem? of 1988-we met our first-term retention goal. The num- BALL: I am concerned about that, and know that con- bers that you get, though, in terms of meeting your first- gressional leaders who are veterans of the armed forces and second-term re-enlistment goals, don't always show are very concerned about it. you whether you are keeping those top sailors and Ma- And they speak to it very often. I meet once a month rines. or where your attrition is. for breakfast with a little group at the Capitol which we That is something I speak to our commanders a great call "Our Former Navy Members." We invite all senators B 11 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 WATCHSTANDERS CONTINUED the high-caliber people you have aboard those ships? and congressmen who have served in the Navy to have BALL: A lot of key members of Congress-and especial- breakfast with the CNO and me. There are no holds ly Congressman Murtha-who have looked closely at barred, we put everything on the table, talk to them those two incidents have become almost evangelical in about what we are doing in the Navy today, and about talking to their colleagues on exactly that point. Mr. some of our problems, and respond to all their ques- Murtha visited Samuel B. Roberts within just a few days tions. And we have some new members of Congress of her hitting that mine in the Persian Gulf. He was so who, I hope, will be joining that group. We have one impressed with what he saw that he has been back to Naval Academy graduate who is joining Congress-from that ship twice. Most recently he went to Bath Iron Rhode Island-Ron Machtley. Also a Medal of Honor Works [where Roberts is being repaired and made ready winner, Senator [Bob] Kerrey, from Nebraska, who was for sea] and checked on the progress of the repair work. a SEAL [member of a Sea-Air-Land team], and two or The crews of those two ships, although they have been three others. acclaimed and have gotten some attention, have yet to Unfortunately, we lost Bill Chappell [D-Fla., a former receive, in terms of public recognition, the real credit naval aviator who chaired the Defense Subcommittee of they deserve. the House Appropriations Committee] after a close 1 went to Guantanamo Bay [Cuba] and observed the election refresher training program down there, and took former Senator Howard Baker, who then was President Reagan's We gather, though, that Congressman Murtha [Rep. chief of staff, with me because I wanted to show him John Murtha (D-Pa.), who succeeded Chappell as what it is that we do there. We visited with the damage- chairman] will be a fine successor control instructors and I met with petty officer first class BALL: I agree. I called on Congressman Murtha about a Perkins-I missed his first name-who had been the month ago and went over some of the big issues that we senior damage-control instructor when Roberts had gone see coming at us. through training down there. He was a big strapping guy, a "sailor of the year" at the Fleet Training Group, a I have gained the impression that, in the last three or very impressive man. four years, anyway, the Navy's whole program has Three weeks later I had been invited by Congress- been better put together and better articulated than it woman Lloyd [Marilyn Lloyd (D-Tenn.)] to speak at had been earlier. Is that a reasonably safe assump- Armed Forces Day in Chattanooga, and 1 asked my peo- tion? You have watched it from three different van- ple to find out where Perkins was; we learned that he tage points-Capitol Hill, then the White House, and since had been transferred to Norfolk. It turned out that now the Pentagon-over that period of time he was in Chattanooga visiting his family, so I had him BALL: In the last three years there has been a growing come to the luncheon, had him stand up before about awareness in Congress among key members as to not just 300 people, and described what he had done in teaching what the role of naval forces would be in a global war damage control to the crew of Samuel B. Roberts and with the Soviet Union, but also of what we do on a daily how he had tangibly contributed to the saving of that basis around the world to deter regional conflicts, to sup- ship. He got an ovation that lasted several minutes and port the president's foreign policy, and to serve as a pre- just about brought the roof down. cision instrument of diplomacy. And you can't understand So there really may be more public recognition than that unless you work at it and go see it working first we had thought. What we still have to do, though. is hand, whether it is the Sixth Fleet, the Seventh Fleet [in convince Congress that that intangible advantage we have the Western Pacific], or wherever we have forces at at sea today, that edge in readiness that emanates from work. every space aboard ship. is of inestimable value to the I think we have done a good job of making more peo- Navy. Also, that if we are not very careful that will be ple aware of this, both in the public generally and on one of the first advantages that will start to deteriorate. Capitol Hill. But we have to keep working hard at it, be- and that nothing is more important to every commanding cause unquestionably it is a tremendous asset to the officer, executive officer. leading chief, and department president, and to the country. The Navy-as I point out head than maintaining that edge. every chance I get-in 1978 could not have done what That concern goes all the way to the CNO's desk and the Navy of 1988 did. to mine, and we have to worry about it to make sure that One question often is put to me by members of the what we are doing at our level protects that advantage. press: "What on earth has been accomplished as a result of the Reagan military buildup?" It's easy to learn what Isn't one of the things that is likely to cause that edge has been accomplished if you dig a little bit. You can to deteriorate the fact that the proposed pay increases look at the readiness statistics, look at retention, look at over the next five years are going to be less than the the numbers of ships that have joined the fleet. But the rate of inflation during the last two years? best way to do it is to get aboard a ship. especially a BALL: There is no question that we must get compara- deployed ship that is out there meeting a commitment bility of pay back on the table and get Congress to ad- and doing a job. dress it. We had it in 1981 and 1982, when we got a couple of good pay raises in a row. But it has eroded Have you been able to effectively use the fact that the since that time. Navy probably would have lost the Stark and the Every study that has been done since then has shown Roberts [guided missile frigates damaged while as- the extent of that erosion, and also has shown that a signed to duty in the Persian Gulf] had you not had bandaid approach is not going to suffice over the long B 12 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 WATCHSTANDERS CONTINUED haul. We must show Congress what disparities exist and gis guided missile destroyer] Arleigh Burke [DDG-51] what they will do to the force. class and ships of that caliber in place, you may be able to reduce the size of the fleet-and, therefore, Are you asked many questions on that subject during that you need to continue the present emphasis on your visits? getting enough advanced-technology ships like that BALL: I am when I'm out with the fleet, and I expect to built now, in order to make it possible? be. Because that subject is on the minds of a lot of peo- BALL: We will have, with the Ticonderoga class [CG-47 ple. We put a lot of emphasis on professional satisfac- Aegis guided missile cruisers) and the Arleigh Burke tion, but we can't expect to continue the improvements class, invested in those platforms such a broad capability, we have made in the quality of life that Navy families and the multi-mission capacity of those ships is an order are able to enjoy unless we do something about the pay of magnitude beyond any previous generation. Frankly, comparability issue. And unless we get Congress to un- the leap from the DDG-2 class and the CG-26 class derstand the extent of the problem. [earlier classes of guided missile destroyers and cruisers] I think that most members who serve on our commit- to the DDG-51 and the CG-47 is a greater leap than any tees are aware that pay comparability has eroded between previous leap in Navy ship construction from one class the military and civilian sectors. but I don't believe they to another. That was brought about by phenomenal tech- are fully aware of the extent of that erosion. nological improvements in electronics, sensors, proces- sors, weapons, et cetera. That will enable us to invest You have done a lot with regard to the roles of wom- more capability in smaller numbers of ships. en in the Navy. How do you look at the future in that Our Surface Combatant Force Requirements study respect? And how far can you go with regard to showed us how a planned force of 224 surface comba- billets of greater responsibility for women-command tants of these newer types will be able to handle the fu- assignments, et cetera? ture threat. It would take over 400 ships of our existing BALL: We have made a lot of progress. I don't see any classes to handle the same threat. But that will not ena- limit on the contribution of women to the readiness of ble us to alter the world's geography, so we still know our forces. The constraints we have in place now are we are going to have to be prepared to meet commit- based on the law ments in those areas where we have vital interests at stake. And, though we may be able to compose battle Which is not likely to change? groups that have greater capability with fewer ships, we BALL: Which is not likely to change. But the "risk" still are going to have to put those battle groups forward rule that has been established by the Secretary of if we are going to maintain the forward strategy. So I Defense has enabled us to be more flexible in the assign- don't look for any dramatic restructuring in the overall ment of women to ships. composition of the Navy. Of course. we have underway now a program to pre- pare to assign women to combat logistics force ships. Is Congress relating to the need for Navy capability That will break new ground for the Navy: I have been the steady decline in the number of bases from which aboard tenders and other ships where we have had wo- our forces can operate overseas? men in the work spaces. I have talked with great big, BALL: Not enough. That affects every aspect of military tough machinist mates on tenders who have female planning. It affects every aspect of planning the overall sailors working right there in the spaces with them, and force structure for each branch of the armed forces. have asked them what the performances of the women And we emphasize it time and time again. We cite the were like. and I have yet to hear any criticism of the way number of bases worldwide in World War II, which was in which women have performed. Their abilities enhance something on the order of 1,800. And now we are down tremendously the capabilities of our work force across to 38. That is one major factor that doesn't get enough the board. That is attributable, 1 think, to the quality that attention. we are able to recruit and keep in the Navy-it has been The second, and equally important, major factor is extraordinary. Further, I believe that the current genera- that, in those countries where we do have installations, tion from which we are drawing our people doesn't have the international political climate is much changed. And some of the problems that my generation, and yours, there is frequently such a lot of political baggage that might have had in the work place. these countries, even though they may be friendly toward It is different now, and our senior supervisory people U.S. interests, may feel they cannot afford a U.S. mili- have in some ways a different kind of management tary operation on or from their soil when it involves challenge. But so far the results have been all positive. regional tensions. A classic case is the Persian Gulf, where in moderate Gulf states we have some good Your first lady CO, Commander [Deborah Sue] friends. We have worked hard and worked well with the Gernes, gets her command in the last quarter of the Kuwaitis, the Saudis, the Bahrainis, the U.A.E., Qatar, year? Oman-all of those Gulf states-and yet there were clear BALL: I think that is correct. I have met her, aboard political sensitivities that arose during that operation [the destroyer tender USS] Cape Cod [AD 43]. where where we had to respect their wishes not to do certain she is executive officer; she is a most impressive officer, things ashore, and to keep certain capabilities afloat that and I believe she will make a fine CO. would have been more convenient and more easily main- tained ashore. Does Congress understand that when you get the [Ae- That is a good example of the fact that, had we not B 13 SUPPLEMENT: THURSDAY, 6 APRIL 1989 WATCHSTANDERS: CONTINUED had enough naval forces to do that job, it wouldn't have this point in detail. I think it is something we have to gotten done. We had to be creative and do some things a speak with Congress more about. But it reinforces what little differently. We had to have minesweepers over there we already know-namely, that we can't put forces to sea supported by a mother ship, and aboard those two mo- that aren't first rate. We can't skimp on the quality of bile barges we used we put significant elements of force ships, aircraft, and weapons systems. And we know we in terms of operating units there. We had Army helicop- will encounter more sophisticated threats in certain ters, SEAL units, and other Army, Marine, and Navy regions of the world that heretofore have not had high- units operating out of those mobile barges. Certainly this level technology weapons. is not the sort of thing you would do unless you had no other options. From this viewpoint it seems that your job, being So it is not just the bases, but also the political climate secretary of the Navy, is more challenging and fas- in those countries where we have existing bases- cinating than it has ever been countries where we have good ties and may even be BALL: I think that is a pretty fair statement! There are providing tremendous amounts of assistance. Neverthe- plenty of problems coming at us, and the budget is tight less, political factors may force us to look for other ways and getting tighter. But we have tremendous assets. And of doing business, and that inevitably always means naval we never before have had, I think, in the things that are forces. naval aviation, and the ability to move, to enter, going for us the kind of people we have on deck who to do the job, and to withdraw. are smart enough to look for better ways to do things The rights to use air space represent another problem. and who take the kinds of initiatives that help us to be Look what we had to do in the Yom Kippur war, for ex- more efficient and smarter in the way we do business. ample, in terms of our resupply of Israel and the routes We are a huge organization, and if we don't have that kind of initiative in each and every work space we are we had to fly. And. of course, it was the Navy that steered those not going to be as efficient as we should be. airlifters into Israel and provided the cover and the pro- Second, we have a commander in chief who is a naval aviator and a combat veteran of World War II, and who tection for those flights. But you asked if Congress understands all of these fac- understands the role that our people play. He has spoken tors enough. and the answer is decidedly "no." I think twice now just in the short period of time he has been in that the CNO, the [Marine Corps] commandant. the office to audiences of Navy and Marine Corps people- secretary of defense. all the others in the national securi- first on the America, where he gave a strong message ty process. and I all have to keep that issue visible and and sounded his support for our people. And I think he made it clear to all of us what the challenges are that we high on the list of concerns. face. Are you concerned about the increasing sophistication Then, last week, I hosted a reception in honor of new- of weapons, not only in the hands of the Soviets but ly selected Navy rear admirals and Marine Corps in the hands of the people of many other nations brigadier generals, and he came by and spoke to those officers and their wives and congratulated them on being around the world? BALL: Yes. I am concerned about the dispersion of selected as the Navy and Marine Corps leaders of the fu- high-technology weapons to so-called Third World coun- ture. And he gave them a very strong message of support tries. For instance. we talked earlier about the acquisi- and encouragement. tion of sophisticated air-defense capability by the So he pays attention not only to what we need as a force, but also to our people. He has served. and under- Libyans, and that really is the tip of the iceberg. Be- stands the sacrifices our people and their families make. cause, technology being what it is, the aggressive efforts That is a tremendous asset to all of us. on the part of certain countries to acquire Western tech- nology for military purposes means that the eΓa of han- Mr. Secretary, I think we probably should end this dling a Third World dispute and implementing U.S. interview on that very positive note. Thank you very diplomacy by puttering around in a gunboat with a much for your time, both here [in Key West] and in .50-caliber machine gun on the bow are forever gone. Washington. We appreciate everything you're doing That inevitably affects our ability to deal with contin- for the Navy and Marine Corps, and I'm sure you gencies short of global war. There was a very good know the Navy League is always ready to help in any study done by [former CNO] Admiral [James L.] Hollo- way, and Dr. [Fred] Ikle, and others, which addressed way we can. ......... B 14 NEW YORK TIMES 7 APRIL 1989 Pg. 8 U.S. Is Urged to Respond to Soviet Initiatives thought the Administration "should be much more responsive" than it has been so far. He raised the possibility Pressure for bolder American under- there is no need to rush in any case. that sluggish responses by Mr. Bush takings is coming from scholars like They argue that Mikhail S. Gorbachev, might hurt Mr. Gorbachev, arguing By R. W. APPLE Jr. George F. Kennan, father of the con- the Soviet leader, has no choice but to that "if he isn't able to show results, the Special to The New York Times tairiment policy in the 1950's; from ca- continue the process of liberalization, vote of confidence represented by the WASHINGTON, April 6 — As star- reer Foreign Service officers who are regardless of what the United States Soviet voting may just fade away." tling actions and proposals by the arguing within the bureaucracy that does in the short term. One policy Asked why he thought the Adminis- Soviet Union and some of its allies the United States is in danger of miss- maker commented this week that "all tration was moving so slowly, Mr. Pell spread around the world, pressures are ing a historic opportunity; from key this is being driven by Soviet internal said it was "partly the slowness of the mounting on the Bush Administration Democrats in Congress, and from politics, not by what we might decide." bureaucracy in producing the policy to abandon its passive posture and re- major allies. But outside the top ranks of the Ad- review, which is just what they tell us." spond to Moscow's initiatives. President Bush and his main foreign- ministration, experts here are asking But he also suspected, he said; "that Each new front-page development policy associates, Secretary of State how long Washington can successfully there is a worry on the Administra- radical economic change in Hungary, James A. Baker 3d and Brent Scow- play the tortoise to Moscow's hare. tion's part that what is happening with the withdrawal of Soviet troops from croft, the national security adviser, "This is a very, very cautious Ad- the Russians isn't permanent, that it Afghanistan, new ideas on Central have made it plain from the day they ministration, despite Bush's and Scow- might be reversed, and so they don't America, elections in the Soviet Union took office that they intended to take croft's long experience in foreign rela- want to get overcommitted." itself produces fresh calls for an their time. They say they have no inter- tions," said Representative Lee H. On the other hand, Mr. Pell said he imaginative American response, and est in spectacular early breakthroughs. Hamilton, Democrat of Indiana, a welcomed signs that Mr. Bush and Mr. this week the calls have reached a cre- What they want, they insist, is slow, ranking member of the House Foreign Baker would move carefully with re- scendo. lasting progress based on careful ne- Affairs Committee. gard to Poland. As important as it is to The promise of free elections in Po- gotiation. "But my sense is that we've reached provide help to Eastern Europe, the land, in particular, seems to set before Publicly, the Administration rou- the point where we need to stop reflect- Senator said, "you must not give the the Administration a platterful of tinely explains its lack of substantive ing and start acting," he said. "We impression that your interest lies in ex- Insistent questions, most of them cen- response to Soviet initiatives by point- have to get at it - respond to their pro- ploiting weaknesses." tering on the American response to the ing to its comprehensive review of for- posals, test their intentions, advance Mr. Kennan, who testified on Tues- Polish economic crisis. So far, how- eign policy, for which the President has our own proposals, keep the guard up, day before Mr. Pell's committee, said ever, Washington has said next to noth- be wary but make a start." the United States "should not allow set. a mid-May deadline, so he can di- ing about whether it will be willing to gest the findings and discuss them with these initiatives from the Soviet side, Senator Claiborne Pell, Democrat of forgive debt or make fresh loans or NATO leaders on his trip to Western when they are of an encouraging na- Rhode Island, who heads the Senate pave the way for major new invest- Europe in May and June. Foreign Relations Committee, said he ment. ture, to go unrecognized by us." rivately, senior officials assert that "We should certainly not think it in- cumbent on us to respond positively immediately to every one of these initi- atives," the former Ambassador to Moscow continued. "But each of them ought to be explored in discussions with our Soviet counterparts to find out ex- actly what they have in mind and to measure that against our own require- ments and our own interests." At the moment, few such explora- tions are under way. A senior Congres- sional arms-control expert said, for ex- ample, that he had "no real idea" where the Administration was putting its emphasis - whether on the nuclear arms negotiations, like the Reagan Ad- ministration, or on conventional-forces reductions, or on something else. A key debate; insiders said, centers on the question of potential American influence OR Mr. Gorbachev's present and future courses of action. One camp argues that American influence is marginal, the other that what the United States does matters a lot. "Where we end up, I have no idea," another foreign-policy professional said. "But unless we see signs of insta- bility in Eastern Europe, unless some- thing blows up somewhere, then I don't think there's all that much urgency. I just hope that the important people really are thinking hard and not just nutting un a smoke screen by telling us Demonstrations And a Dinner Peace Pledge The White House Hosts Israel's Shamir WP 4-7 L) disagree on policy, "the U.S. com- By Carla Hall and Martha Sherrill mitment to the security of Israel re- Washington Post Staff Writers mains unshakable." And Shamir himself said of the Is- At dusk, dueling demonstrations raelis, "We pray for peace three in front of the White House—one times a day. We despise war and vio- pro-Palestinian, one pro-Israeli- symbolized the as yet unresolved lence." But against increasing pres- conflict that would be on the minds sure and suggestions now even by Bush that Israel return the occupied of everyone at dinner last night. land, Shamir added, "But we cannot As the limousine carrying Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and permit our abhorrence of war to he his wife Shulamit arrived, the chants used against us by terrorists and d' - tators who would force us to submit of the demonstrators echoed up to the North Portico, where President to their demands." and Barbara Bush stood waiting to During the brief interlude be- receive their guests. tween dinner and the entertainment Inside, both the president and when guests mingle with their hosts Shamir pledged their commitment to over coffee and liqueurs, President peace. In his toast to the Israeli lead- Bush was casual and chatty, banter- er, Bush said that while they may See SHAMIR, C2, Col. 1 @g gamely with reporters, though not matters of substance. Committee, said right before heading The guest list for last night's White When asked about Oliver North's in to the entertainment, "I've got about House dinner: atements about Bush at the North two acts I've got to get in here." He re- lersell Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and Shulamit Shamir Moshe Ared, ambassador of lerael, and Rivka Arad trial yesterday, Bush replied, "What did fused to divulge what they were. Benjamin Netanyahu, deputy foreign minister he say?" A reporter explained that Following the dinner of smoked Elyahim Rubenstein, cabinet secretary Yossef H. Ben-Aheron, director general of the prime minister's North had essentially called Bush an trout, herbed bow ties, chicken rose- office Aviezer Pazner, media adviser to the prime minister emissary. Bush said, "I'll tell you what mary turban of spinach and strawberry Brigadier General Azriel Nevo, military secretary to the prime sorbet bombe, piano vocalist Michael minister Pm going to say-no comment." Zvi Harry Horowitz, adviser to the prime minister of disspora Asked what he thought of Shamir's Carney-whom Bush described as "my affairs friend of long standing"-performed Aryeh Mekel, political adviser to the prime minister opinion of his positions, Bush said, "I Joseph Achimeir, director of the prime minister's bureeu dusty oldies with singer Colleen Casey Oded Eran, deputy chief of mission, and Miki Eran refer you to his departing statement. President Bush and Barbara Bush That's what T would an hy in the East Room, quizzing the audi- Vice President Quayle and Marilyn Quayle sein. There was some hope that the Hepburn swept in wearing a black Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.) and Joyce Murthe Middle East leaders would meet to- Jeseph V. Read Jr., chief of protocol gether at the White House, but Mubar- satin strapless dress with a pearl-stud- Seymeur Reich, chairmen, Conference of Presidents of Major ded black velvet bolero. She confessed American Jewish Organizations, and Helen Reich ak rejected the request. Date Roes, director of policy planning, State Department, to a certain amount of pleasant befud- -and Deborah Ross Bush and Shamir spent much of the Pote Rozelle, commissioner, National Football League, and dlement at her invitation to the dinner. Carrie Rozelle day together-first in discussions and "Yes, I was surprised," she said, Rabbl Alexander Schindler, president, Union of American He later on a tour of the Air and Space brew Congregations, and Rhes Schindler Museum, where they watched the stopping to talk to reporters at the en- Gen. Brent Scowcroft, assistant to the president for national trance to the East Wing. Asked what security affairs movie "To Fly." Bernard Show, anchor, Cable News Network, and Linds She she'd been up to lately, Hepburn Jacob Stain, former chairman, Conference of Presidents Sometime between the tour and Major American Jewish Organizations, and Jean Stein launched enthusiastically into a discus- John Sununu, chief of staff to the president getting into his tuxedo, the president sion of her work for UNICEF. Dick Themburgh, attorney general, and Virginia Thornburgh had taken off to the Hill for the im- Ben Wagshal, Wagshal Delicatessen, and Littlen Wagshel "We leave on Wednesday for the Su- Byron White, Supreme Court justice, and Marion White promptu racquetball game. One presi- dan there's quite a lot of work to Gorden Zacks, chairman, National Republican Jewish Coall- tion, and Carol Zachs dential press aide mused as Bush be done-and it all has to be done in greeted his guests, "He must have just one month-before the rains come," gotten out of the shower." she said, referring to disbursement of Standing for their portrait outside food and medication. the White House, Bush-formally She went on at some length, until clad-and Shamir-in a dark suit- her longtime boyfriend, Robert Wold- were silent. Barbara Bush, wearing a ers, slipped a hand about her wraithlike long black lace dress by Arnold Scaasi waist and said with a laugh, "Can we and her usual pearls, gestured warmly eat now?" to Shulamit Shamir, who also wore Bob Hope and his wife Dolores came black-a combination of lace and vel- in a clump with Atwater, wearing a red vet. cummerbund and red bow tie, and his Marilyn Quayle was in a not-talk- wife Sally, in bright emerald green sat- ing-to-the-press mood. But she was in. thrilled to share the admission that her Atwater wasn't the only man trying plaid taffeta skirt was 15 years old. to make a colorful sartorial statement. At the end of the evening national Sen. Rudy Boschwitz (R-Minn.) turned security adviser Brent Scowcroft up in a loud multicolored cummerbund strolled out with Commerce Secretary and black bow tie. Robert Mosbacher and his wife Geor- Hope-of course-is no stranger to gette. They caught actress Audrey White House dinners. "I go back to Hepburn in conversation momentarily FDR," he said. before Scowcroft and Georgette Mos- bacher, chummily holding hands, said their goodbyes. Lee Atwater, the guitar-playing chairman of the Republican National THE DAILY OKLAHOMAN 8 APRIL 1989 Pg. 6 SDI on the Defense S TRATEGIC defense as a the Senate. In an SDI anni- sensors and targeting com- means of preventing puters. The system could nuclear warfare may yet versary speech, Quayle be activated to track and survive the change in ad- reaffirmed the administra- destroy missiles in their ministrations, but not tion's intention to continue "boost" phase. without a struggle. research and begin deploy- ment of a missile defense Quayle calls the idea Six years after former President Reagan system at some point. promising because it could be deployed earlier and at launched the Strategic De- Comments by the new much less cost than SDI. fense Initiative, the idea of secretary of defense, Dick High Frontier, the organi- using space-based defenses Cheney, raise questions zation that pioneered the that could make atomic about how much money SDI concept, is ready to weapons obsolete is still the president is willing to mount a strong lobbying being debated. commit to SDI, however. A effort in behalf of "Bril- Although President strategic review of U.S. de- liant Pebbles." Bush has declared his fense and foreign policy or- Not only does the United overall support for SDI, he dered by Bush is supposed States need to have a strat- wants to put his own im- to provide guidance for egy that would make the print on the U.S. nuclear budgetary decisions. Soviet Union think twice doctrine. His national se- It's not likely that Bush about launching a first curity adviser, Brent will lock horns, as Reagan strike attack, but one that Scowcroft, has been pub- did, with Democrats in also would afford protec- licly skeptical about Congress who are cool to tion from intentional or ac- switching to defensive sys- SDI. One possible new ap- cidental launches by the tems as a primary deter- proach is called "Brilliant growing number of Third rent to nuclear war. Pebbles." World nuclear nations. SDI backers are encour- Instead of SDI's huge sa- The sooner the president aged by the posture taken tellites, the new concept and Congress can agree on by Vice President Dan calls for thousands of the best system, the better Quayle, who was a strong small orbiting missile in- prospects will be for a missile defense advocate in terceptors equipped with safer world. SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 NBC News MEET THE PRESS Sunday, April 9, 1989 GUEST: BRENT SCOWCROFT National Security Adviser MODERATOR: Garrick Utley - NBC News PANEL: John Cochran - NBC News Elizabeth Drew - The New Yorker - - - This is a rush transcript pro- vided for the information and convenience of the press. Accu- racy is not guaranteed. In case of doubt, please check with MEET THE PRESS - NBC NEWS 202/885-4598 (Sundays: 202/885-4200) MR. UTLEY: On "Meet the Press" today, from Gorbachev, to the Middle East, to Central America, what does the Bush admini- stration do next? Our guest is Brent Scowcroft, the president's national security adviser. If you are interested in and involved with what is happening around the world, this was a week to make your head spin. Gorbachev in Cuba, Shamir and Mubarak here in Washington. In Poland, the promise of a free election. And, now, amid all of this activity, the direction of the Bush administration's foreign policy, particularly towards the Soviet Union is beginning A 4 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED to emerge. We want to talk about that with General Scowcroft this morning on "Meet the Press," and joining me today are Elizabeth Drew of The New Yorker and John Cochran who is NBC's chief White House correspondent. General Scowcroft, we're now getting the leaks, if you will on what this foreign policy review is all about. You, of course, have overseen it. And one of the first indications to come out today is that there's no real change planned for our relationship with the Soviet Union, no indication that you and the president want to seize this opening, this initiative of Gorbachev's. Why? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, I think the articles that you saw in the press this morning were premature. The studies are still under way. They have not been completed. And, so, we haven't made any final decisions on policy. We have initial results from the study by the bureaucratic interagency process and it's probably not surprising that the future looks a lot like the present in a sort of a straight line projection, but we're not there yet. MR. UTLEY: But some people are calling this here in Washington, in foreign policy circles, quote, status quo plus. Do you think that that's the way to approach the current relationship with the Soviet Union or do you not think that we have to show more initiative, take some risks, go for this apparent opening? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Oh, I think there are two aspects to that and one is that a major power like the United States ought not to make sharp dramatic changes in policy. We've had a fairly consistent policy now through Democratic and Republican administrations for 40 years. Now, that's the one half. The other half is that the post-war period, the post World War II-- the cold war period is beginning to change rapidly. A'lot of things are happening. And it's important now, perhaps for the first administration in a long time, to look out ahead, to look toward the end of the century, to say where do we want to be, what would we like the world to see, What would we like East- West relations to be like there and to try to work from here toward that. MR. UTLEY: The president as part of this review has asked for a personal assessment of Gorbachev, the man. What do you think that assessment is going to show us? Is he for real? Is he going to last? CONTINUED NEXT P A 5 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Oh, I think there's no question that he's for real and that he is a dynamic, modern--in the sense of understanding, especially communications- and dedicated to changing the Soviet Union. But the what is in doubt is what-- the character of that change and what his motivation for change is, and there there's a major question mark. MRS. DREW: I'd like to follow up on that and learn more about your thinking on that specific point. In a program earlier this year, you expressed some skepticism about his long- range ambition, saying that he wanted to straighten out the Soviet economy or improve it, make trouble for the Western alliance. So, do you think basically there's been no change in the Soviet Union's long-range international aggressiveness and ambitions? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, I think the evidence so far is mixed. There are cases, for example, of Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, but that could simply be a recognition of realities. There's been some useful move in Angola, but certainly SWAPO, massive SWAPO incursion into Namibia over the last few days could have not have happened without Soviet knowledge at least, whether or not they played a role in it. Certainly, in Central America we have what the president called clear evidence of old thinking not new thinking. So, I think it's too early to assess how much he is really dedicated to substantive change. MRS. DREW: Do you think it might be the case that in the end he's not really different from his predecessors, in an international respect? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I think he is different in the sense that he is very, very skillful. There's no question about that and he knows how to take advantage of media, how to package things in an appealing way, and he definitely does want to make change in the Soviet Union. MR. COCHRAN: But, General, this was a very odd week for Gorbachev. He went to Cuba, he had nothing new to say about Central America. We expected some sort of initiative there. He went to London, met with Margaret Thatcher, made a couple of cracks about we should not modernize our nuclear forces, our tactical nuclear forces in Europe, but it was almost as a passing reference. He also seemed somewhat put out with your administration, the president for not moving quickly enough on the policy review regarding Moscow. Is he sort of retrenching? Is he so worried about domestic affairs that he simply isn't concentrated on foreign A 6 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED policy? This was a very lackluster performance by him this past week. GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, certainly, his domestic problems are massive and I think that one can anticipate, you know, a period of some stability in international relations, because he does want to concentrate on it. But he had a difficult time in Cuba. He has major differences with Castro on glasnost, on peres- troika, on the levels of aid and so on, so maybe this was more in the way of a damage limitation visit, but certainly there wasn't anything new. As a matter of fact, it was discouraging to hear his pronouncements. And in London he announced with great fanfare a cessation of production of highly enriched uranium as if it were something new. We stopped that, I believe, in 1964. MR. UTLEY: General, let's get down to another very important specific in our relationship with the Soviet Union, SDI or Star Wars. We're familiar with the debate over it. The Russians want us to stop it, not go ahead with deployment. The Bush adminis- tration has to decide what to do. Do you favor or do you see the deployment of SDI in the foreseeable future or as Secretary of Defense Cheney said, has it been oversold? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, I think it's premature to say precisely what I favor. But I--it's no longer possible simply to talk about SDI as if it were a single issue out there. There are many forms of SDI, from trying to reach the president--President Reagan's initial vision of making nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete down to the OWPS (phonetic) the minimum sort of shield to prevent--against actual-- MR. UTLEY: Where do you stand? Do you support a minimum shield? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I think strategic defense IS here to stay and I think we need vigorously to pursue it. I'm not prepared to say exactly where down this whole spectrum of things we ought to go, from continuing research to full deployment. MR. UTLEY: Let me just try once more. In other words, you do not see it being deployed in the foreseeable future? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: No, I wouldn't say--no, that's not- -that's not correct-- I would not-- MRS. DREW: I would like to ask you a kind of big picture question, given what's going on in the Soviet Union, they had elections; obviously they weren't our idea of free elections, but some. very astonishing things happened. Given the Polish government's agreement with solidarity and their promise of elections, given A 7 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED the loosening of the reigns of some governments in Eastern Europe, do you think we might begin to conclude that communism doesn't work? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I think we might be prepared to conclude that. I think what we're seeing now is evidence, you know, that the West has won. Now, the battle's not over, but it seems to me that, you know, we're no longer worried about communism sweeping Western Europe as we were 35 years ago. It's a failed political system, as we concede by the concessions to at least some democratic procedures. It's failed as an economic system and they're borrowing market economics, to try to get their economic system going again. So, there's no question that we have every reason to look back on the past 40 years and say we've been successful. MRS. DREW: But I'm still not sure what you were saying earlier that I--it seemed to me you were saying that given all that, you still don't think that their international ambitions have changed. GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I'm not sure that they have and it seems to me that we-this is a period where we have to be very prudent and cautious and not throw away the kinds of strength and determination that have brought us as far as we have before we can be absolutely certain what's ahead. MR. COCHRAN: General, let me focus on a decision the president's going to have to make in the next couple of weeks, that is to say, whether to go with the MX mobile missiles or the Midgetman mobile missiles, the Midgetman being single warhead, MX being multiple warhead. Without getting into all that arcana of nuclear technology, if taxpayers knew what the Midgetman costs, they'd be much more interested in the Midgetman missile. You happen to be for it. You think it would survive a Soviet nuclear attack better because it can be moved around more easily. I know you're probably not going to announce the decision today, but do you think there is the money to pay for this very expensive Midgetman? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, there has been no decision and one of our fundamental problems is in a period of severe pressure on the defense budget there is, we must really analyze closely our strategic priorities in terms of an overall concept and we can't do everything we'd like. And one of the things we're looking at now is a concept that would help us rank the kinds of things that we-that are highest priority. A 8 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED MR. COCHRAN: It's feasible though that you could pay for the Midgetman? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Oh, yes, at the cost of other things, yes. MR. UTLEY: Let's just call a pause right here for a moment right here. We'll have more questions for Brent Scowcroft, the president's national security adviser, in just a moment as "Meet the Press" continues. (Announcements) MR. UTLEY: Continuing here on "Meet the Press" this morning, Elizabeth Drew, John Cochran and I are talking with Brent Scowcroft, the president's. national security adviser. Turning to a bit of recent history, the Iran/contra affair. At the Oliver North trial, as you are aware, sir, there is some new information that emerged this week about efforts by your boss, George Bush, and Ronald Reagan to get aid to the contras through Honduras by giving Honduras assistance, a quid pro quo arrangement, which would be in violation or was in violation of the Boland amendment. Now, you were on the commission, the Tower commission, which investigated that whole affair. When you saw this information appear in court, government information, did you feel that you were misled or that your inquiry was limited because you were not given that information at that time? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, I want to be very careful here. The information that we got on the Tower board was included in our report. And I think it speaks for itself. This information that is out now in the trial--you know, first of all, I wasn't in the government at the time. MR. UTLEY: I understand, you were part of the board that conducted the inquiry. GENERAL SCOWCROFT: That's right. But in 1985, for example, it was a very troubled period down there and there were incursions by the Sandinista regime into Honduras. And the Reagan administration announced accelerated aid and so on to meet those incursions and it's my recollection the vice president went down there to reassure the Hondurans. And I think one has to look at it in that kind of context. MR. UTLEY: But the indication in this evidence submitted by the government, again, and attested to by the government, is that Mr. Bush, as vice president, did go down, did talk to the A 9 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED Honduran president, that part of this arrangement was a quid pro quo, which was in violation of the Boland amendment. Were you aware of that at the time of your inquiry? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I think--have to be very careful here. There's a trial under way on that-- MR. UTLEY: We're not talking about the trial. I understand that. We recognize that. GENERAL SCOWCROFT: No, no, I understand. MR. UTLEY: We're talking about your investigation, which is now history. GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, there's a difference between what was submitted at the trial and the documentary evidence in and of itself, and I think I better not say any farther than that, but I go back to the statement that I just made about what the facts were. MR. COCHRAN: Sir, are you saying that in fact there was no quid pro quo. It seemed to me that the what you were saying is we sent the Reagan administration send economic and military aid to Honduras to stave off a possible Nicaraguan invasion rather than to help the contras. Is that your point? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: What I'm saying, in 1985, there were Nicaraguan incursions across the border and we did accelerate aid there and I--you know, this is all in the newspapers. MRS. DREW: Wasn't that because the contras were there? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: The Nicaraguan incursions? MRS. DREW: Yes. GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Oh, oh, yes, I wouldn' I wouldn't disagree with that. MRS. DREW: So, it was all part of the contra policy? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Yes, but that's not the basic question as I understand it. MR. COCHRAN: But you're saying there was no quid pro quo? This was not a way of laundering money to the contras? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I'm not going to say any more than I've said. I think there are real problems with going further. MRS. DREW: Let me ask you another one about President Reagan's role. He told the Tower commission, on which you served, that he didn't know about, had no role in, getting money and help from third countries. And it has now come out in the court that he did. So, didn't he mislead you? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: That--that's a tough question, A 10 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED Elizabeth. I don't remember on that particular one exactly what the president told us. And I just honestly don't remember. You remember the Tower board spent the bulk of its time on the Iranian part rather than on the contra part, because the Tower board was not making a legal investigation. What we were charged with--with what was what went wrong with the system and what ought to be done. So, we were not--we were not looking at culpability in any of these issues. We were trying to find out what happened, and there the focus was really on Iran. MR. UTLEY: Well, General, let me ask you another question. You are now--about today--you are the national security adviser, would you consider, under any circumstances, any time, at the White House, in your present post, to carry out the kind of an arrangement which apparently--and, indeed, was carried out at that time, in 1984 and 1985, where corners were clearly cut in violation of the Boland amendment--understanding the pressures that people were under at that time--but would you envisage the possibility of doing that under any circumstances? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Let me under--let me answer that this way. What we have in the contra affair was a constitutional confrontation between a president who had a policy he firmly believed was in the national interest and a Congress that either was objected to or did not agree with that policy. And we were seeing 1S the unfolding of that constitutional controversy. The president used the instruments that he had. The Congress used the instruments it had. Now, I think we have to bend over backwards to insure that laws on the books are obeyed and I can assure you that that will be the case. MR. COCHRAN: Are you convinced that George Bush did nothing improper or illegal in 1985? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I'd say--you know, I'm going to let--let our report stand on that one. MR. COCHRAN: Well, sir, you've got a pretty good reputation in this town. Most people would expect you to walk out of the White House just like that, if you thought you were associated with a president who had done something improper or illegal or had in any way misled the Congress. Can we assume by the fact that you're staying in this White House that you think that--as--the president has a clean bill of health on this? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I'm still there. MR. COCHRAN: So the assumption's correct? A 11 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED MRS. DREW: Let me ask you about the Middle East, which I am sure you might welcome at this point. The administration seemed to embrace Mr. Shamir's proposal for elections in the West Bank and Gaza. But, of course, the whole question is in the details, who can participate in the elections and so on. Does the administration think that Shamir is ready with a detailed program for these elections, that you can support and that Arab nations would consider a real election? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: I think we have taken only the very first, very tiny steps into a very very difficult problem. The United States can't make peace in the Middle East. All we can help is the parties, to bring them together, to build on points of congruence, or even areas where they may be close together. And the possibility of elections to bring about some kind of a dialogue, which at the present time is wholly absent, is one way to proceed. Now-- MRS. DREW: But do you have a conception of how this will evolve stage by stage and where you want to get and where you want them to get? Do you have a plan? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, we have a conception as to-- as to how it might work, of course. But it will depend in the end on the parties themselves each making some compromises to make such--such a process work. And 1 think it's premature to say whether this will be a successful avenue. MR. COCHRAN: Could I ask you about the Soviet sub which sank off the coast of Norway. Are you satisfied there's no nuclear radiation hazard from this sub? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: As far as we can tell, there is none and the indications that we have received from the Soviet Union is that there 15 none. MR. COCHRAN: Very quickly, in the Pan Am 103 crash, the bombing, the FBI director says eventually you're going to find out who's responsible. You seem to be getting very close. Are you very close and does it point to this Palestinian terrorist group based out of Damascus? GENERAL SCOWCROFT: Well, there's been--just an absolutely marvelous amount of detective work gone on. We have learned more than I ever would image we would, but we're not there yet. MR. UTLEY: With that news, General, thank you very much. We have to pause. Thank you for being with us today on A 12 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 SCOWCROFT CONTINUED "Meet the Press." Elizabeth Drew, John Cochran and I will be back in just a moment with some personal observations as "Meet the Press" continues. (Announcements) MR. UTLEY: Talking with Brent Scowcroft this morning, the president's national security adviser, of course, one of the main stories is this long awaited policy review on America's relationship with the world, specifically the Soviet Union, which is now starting to emerge like a big iceberg and many people are going to say it's a victory for bureaucratic inertia. It's middle of the roadism carried to an extreme. Is that fair? MRS. DREW: Well, General Scowcroft said that it is not complete. And he was quite candid, I thought, in saying that if you have an interagency review of the extant by extant bureaucracies, you're not going to get very much original thinking. So, I don't think we can really judge it until we see the real results. But there is a danger when you have interagency reviews that everybody sort of compromises and works things out and original thinking doesn't emerge. MR. COCHRAN: Yes, but I think foreign policy in this administration is going to be threshed out in meetings between the president, between the Secretary of Defense, Dick Cheney; between the Secretary of State, Jim Baker; and, Brent Scowcroft, those four people--not always all four of them in the room at the same time--that's what's going to decide, not these interagency reviews. And after all these are all very cautious men who thought that Ronald Reagan had much too romantic a view of the Soviets, that sometimes he was too anti-Soviet, sometimes too pro-Soviet. These are much more cautious people. MR. UTLEY: Okay, let's talk about George Bush's personality. How cautious is he, because in the end it is the president's decision, isn't it? MR. COCHRAN: Very. MR. UTLEY: Is he the kind of a guy who will go for an apparent opening, who will take a risk? MRS. DREW: It's not clear and I think in light of what John was saying the question is why are we having this interagency review, if, in fact, the decisions are going to be made by the top guys. They say these reviews will be finished by May, that's really six months after an election. One wonders what they ve A 13 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 COWCROFT CONTINUED been doing. But Bush is not necessarily a bold person and we have to wait and see what kind of advice he gets. MR. COCHRAN: He's also being helped by the fact that Gorbachev is not being particularly bold lately, as we were saying earlier in the program. This was a very surprisingly poor performance by Gorbachev this past week. And I don't know if it's because he's distracted--that's the main theory going around--that he distracted by problems back at home. That he's simply not focussing on foreign policy. This makes it easier for this administration to, if you will, sit back and wait until the president goes to Europe at the end of May and then spell out his policy. MR. UTLEY: Then the action may really begin. John, Elizabeth, thank you very much for being with me this morning here on "Meet the Press." If there was a picture, an image from this past week that sticks in the mind, it is from Havana. Mikhail- Gorbachev and Fidel Castro together. There was Gorbachev looking towards the future, embracing change. And there was Castro clearly a prisoner of his past and, yes, his own rhetoric. It was one of those moments, which defined what is happening in the communist world and in ours. It is a time to make decisions. Many people who are impressed by what Gorbachev is doing or are concerned about it or both are watching as President Bush decides how to respond to the Soviet initiatives. What is interesting, though, is that some conservatives in this country are not waiting to present their new thinking. For example, last week on this program, Congressman Newt Gingrich, a bona fide member of the Republic Party's right wing was asked how he would review deep reductions in Pentagon spending if the Gramm-Rudman budget cuts have to be implemented. Gingrich, who 1S a self-described hawk said, "The fact is with Gorbachev and what is happening in the Soviet Union, we can look at fundamental reforms of the defense department. I am very willing to cut defense spending rather than raise taxes if those are our choices. Well, that could turn out to be a key to how George Bush responds to Mikhail Gorbachev. If the president does not have to keep looking over his shoulder at all his conservative critics, that proverbial window of opportunity between the White House and the Kremlin could become an open door. I'm Garrick Utley. I hope you 11 join us this evening for NBC Nightly News and, again, next week for "Sunday Today," and "Meet the Press. " A 14 SUPPLEMENT: MONDAY, 10 APRIL 1989 VFW MAGAZINE MARCH 1989 Pg. 36 NATO'S DILEMMA The Key: By Charles W Corddry Arms Control Agreements As argued by Sen. William S. Coher The shift from nuclear to conventional arma- (Maine). who is vice chairman of the ment poses a problem in maintaining balance. Senate Intelligence Committee, ane other critics. unilateral cuts by th. West could simply restore the Soviet S oviet President Mikhail Gorba previous force ratio. Possibly worse chev. having seen the futility of it would lower the density - comba threats and bluster. has found a units and firepower of defendin better way to provoke divisions in pressure to reduce. or anyhow not to forces. the Western alhance He is waging a increase, arms budgets and to under- The conclusion that flows general peace offensive take reciprocal cuts in forces. from analysis of the Gorbachev mane "1". think he's interested in By a year ago, British Prime Minis- vers is that reductions in Wester making trouble within the Western ter Margaret Thatcher had decided. forces should be carried out only alliance." President Bush's national according to news reports. that The the context of verifiable arms contr security adviser. Brent Scoweroft. Russians bear was easier to deal with agreements. Optimists, like Jonath: has said. "and think he believes the when it looked more like a bear than Dean, a former U.S. negotiator. belie best way todon IS a peaceoffensive it does now. the meer the Russians the West can -get much more fre get. the more dangerous they are." the Soviets" - beyond their a The ace-accepted need to modern- nounced plans because of M. Reliability Factor ize tactical nuclear weapons, those cow's concern for domestic restri Though Gorbachev's announced with ranges under 300 miles, IS now turing and better economic relatic vigorously contested in West Ger with Europe. cuts in troops, weapons and military many. which seems to want to negoti- The fact is. however, that all hist spending must be taken seriously. as ate them down, or away, simultane- ical experience indicates that must the proclaimed switch to a "defensive" military doctrine, they are ously with negotiations for conven- negotiation of a conventional ai tional-arms reductions agreement will be a long drawn- still mostly in the realm of promise rather than implementation. The NATO military command. process. The West does not hav Giving himself two years to reduce under U.S. Army Gen. John R. Galvin. fully developed position. And IS in fact preparing proposals for Bush Administration is in the m his forces, he has built in plenty of time for reversal if Western responses significant cuts in the arsenal of of a fullscale review of natio shortest range battlefield nuclear security policy, covering defe are not to his liking. and. of course. if arms But the general is quite explicit requirements, control goals his faltering domestic restructuring program would allow such a reversal. that such reductions must be contin budgets. As he told a visiting delegation in gent on development of an improved mid January, the new doctrine of ground launched Lance missile with reasonable "sufficiency" of arms for areach of about 250 miles and a new Higher Costs defensive purposes is dynamic What air-to-ground missile. In the field of conventional arms. By any judgment, meanw is sufficient. he said, will depend on how the Western side conducts itself." Gorbachev's announced plan to cut NATO has deficiencies and vuli bilities that demand attention. T The Soviet leader's steady stream 500,000 men and 10,000 tanks over of seemingly conciliatory gestures two years brought predictable urges are piles of studies on what fixe needed to achieve what results, and arms control proposals has had in Europe to reciprocate. Yet by a the effect seen by Gen. Scowcroft of very general estimate, the effect of accordingly. a wide range of mated costs. making trouble for the alhance and Moscow's action would be to reduce The lowest estimate came slowing progress toward both nuclear its overall force advantage from 3-10 I to 2 to 1. which might well leave Presidential campaign last year and conventional goals NATO. 111 Democratic candidate Micha brief. is cast III one of its bickering Soviet commanders with the poten- moods. nal of mobilizing a 3- or 4-10-1 ad- Dukakis advocated a U.S. capa to defeat the Soviet Union in The contrast bet ween Gorbachev's vantage at specific points of attack. ventional war and estimated approach and that of his rigid prede (Much would depend here on the promptness of NATO political leaders' necessary upgrading of the 1 cessors, and a perception of earnest would cost $3 billion over four ness about arms control. have made response to warning and the Soviet's him a very popular figure with Euro- success, or lack of it, in moving rein- years. pean publics. The result is more forcements from the USSR.) Apart from the implicit 17: A 15 The Washington Post A-1 The New York Times Bush Advised to Hold Steady The Washington Times The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor On Nation's Foreign Policy New York Daily News USA Today The Chicago Tribune By R. Jeffrey Smith Washington Post Staff Writer Date 9 APR 1989 Three classified reports, Bush responded to the three re- about lasting Soviet political re- presented to President Bush last ports by asking for some supple- forms through enhanced economic week as part of a lengthy review of mentary information, the officials cooperation, and some Pentagon U.S. foreign policy, have recom- said, but appeared to accept their officials, who prefer to turn current mended no major new initiatives conclusions and did not ask that Soviet troubles to U.S. strategic toward Europe or the Soviet Union, they be redrafted. On Friday, he advantage. offering no support for dramatic publicly brushed aside criticism by "The consensus is that we should arms cuts or sharply expanded eco- Gorbachev that the slow pace of the make assertive challenges to the nomic cooperation with the East, reviews was threatening the mo- Soviets to put into effect their new U.S. officials have disclosed. mentum behind improving East- thinking on a broad range of issues," The reports, prepared by an in- West relations. one official said, noting that these teragency committee and discussed "We'll be ready to react when we would largely consist of those with Bush at meetings of the Na- feel like reacting" to proposals raised under Reagan, such as hu- tional Security Council (NSC) on made by Gorbachev, Bush said. man rights, emigration, regional While some senior officials ex- Tuesday and Wednesday, deter- issues and arms control. "We'll have mined instead that the administra- pressed frustration with what they more ambitious goals within the described as the three reports' tion should closely follow current existing framework." complacent view of the nation's policies, largely developed during This prescription was said to be present role in world affairs, others Ronald Reagan's presidency, to- based on an assessment that Gor- praised the process that produced ward Eastern and Western Europe bachev would likely remain power- them and the reports themselves and toward the government of So- ful for at least the next three to five for helping to "educate" Bush and years, but that he would also be viet President Mikhail Gorbachev, his new appointees on emerging preoccupied by internal economic the officials said. problems in European and Soviet difficulties. The officials could point only to relations and for creating "a paper The report was skeptical, how- the possible elimination of some trail" that might be used in creative ever, that U.S.-Soviet trade can or U.S. trade tariffs and other eco- policy-making many months from should be dramatically increased, nomic measures involving Poland, now. partly because of wide economic in response to Polish endorsement "There is just a hell of a lot of differences and what one official of free and open elections, as a spe- inertia behind the business-as-usual described as "their inability to make cific new initiative supported by the approach," one official sighed in ex- sufficiently profitable deals." reports. plaining the absence of new ideas. The foreign affairs review that. On a dozen or so controversial Only officials at the Commerce Department-apparently not in- developed the three reports has topics, the officials said, the reports urge a cautious, moderate U.S. ap- cluding Secretary Robert A. Mos- occupied hundreds of senior bu- proach that one described as "the bacher-supported calls by some reaucrats throughout the govern- ment and tied the administration's lowest common denominator" ac- prominent business and Jewish leaders for a waiver of Jackson- hands on many pressing policy is- ceptable both to Bush's conserva- Vanik trade restrictions with the sues since Bush became president tive and more liberal advisers. 79 days ago. At the same time, they stressed Soviet Union, the officials said. The officials said the issue would The reports covering the Soviet that the closed, interagency meet- instead continue to be "reviewed" Union, Eastern Europe and West- ings on the reports were not as ran- corous as those conducted during while a careful assessment was ern Europe are considered among the most important of dozens of Reagan's presidency, and that the made of interest on Capitol Hill. results reflected a broader and Other officials said the roughly papers distilled from the review probably more lasting consensus in 25-page report on Western Europe covering most regions of the world, the government's senior ranks. did not support growing calls in U.S. military policy and arms con- A senior official said, for exam- some member-nations of the North trol. ple, that the roughly 30-page report Atlantic Treaty Organization for A White House official indicated on the Soviet Union urged that U.S. dramatic reductions in NATO the three were part of only a hand- policy "should not be designed ei- forces, in concert with larger cuts ful reviewed so far by a special com- ther to help or hurt" Gorbachev. in Warsaw Pact forces. mittee chaired by Robert M. Gates, Others explained that this rec- the deputy national security advis- ommendation was intended to side- CONTINUED er, and approved for submission to step a dispute between some State Bush and other members of the Department officials, who believe NSC. the United States can help bring Page 14. 2. The report indicated that the All three reports were developed Officials said a key report on West probably needs to develop a by interagency groups known as arms control, to be prepared by a new proposal on conventional arms "policy coordinating committees" committee chaired by NSC senior cuts that has more political appeal that were chaired by Assistant Sec- staff member Arnold Kanter; was than last month's cautious call for 5' retary of State Rozanne L. Ridg- also in early stages of preparation. to 10 percent reductions in three way. A holdover from the Reagan They attributed the delay in part to types of armaments, they added. administration, Ridgway is a career the wrenching battle over the John But they said the report also re- foreign service officer with long G. Tower's unsuccessful nomina- flected the administration's skep- experience in European and Soviet tion as secretary of defense. ticism that negotiated cuts on the affairs, including service as ambas- order of 40 to 50 percent, as urged sador to East Germany and Finland, Staff writer David Hoffman last week by retired general An- who plans to retire from the State contributed to this report. drew J. Goodpaster and also en- Department in June. dorsed by Gorbachev as a long-term A separate report on U.S. mili- goal, would serve, U.S. security in- tary policy, being prepared by a terests. The Joint Chiefs of Staffs committee chaired by former am- were described as being particular- bassador Paul D. Wolfowitz, is less ly opposed to consideration of such than half-completed, the officials deep cuts. said. Only an initial chapter on mil- The report also takes a middle itary threats to the United States road on the issue of European eco- during the next decade is consid- nomic integration in 1992, urging ered finished. cautious U.S. support combined Officials described the chapter as with vigilant opposition to trade acknowledging that the Soviets are barriers, officials said. taking concrete steps to diminish A similar report on Eastern Eu- both their "threat image" and their rope did not embrace a controver- actual military forces. "The consen- sial formula advanced by former sus is that the threat of attack on secretary of state Henry A. Kiss- short-warning time is particularly inger, in which the United States reduced." would provide assurances to the It also predicts a continuation of Soviet Union that increasing de- the Soviets' withdrawal from in- mocratization in those Soviet allies volvement in Third World conflicts, would not be answered by new such as Afghanistan and Cambodia, Western challenges to Soviet secu- and notes that the Soviets' current rity. economic troubles will bar "aggres- Indications last month that such a sive military policies or meddling plan was under consideration by the for some time," a senior official administration brought substantial, said. private protests from West Euro- "It says, in short, that their pean governments and questions threat to us will decline, no matter from Hungary. Their concern was what we do," the official added. "It that any U.S.-Soviet deal could in- also predicts they will place a high- terfere with the democratic re- er priority on relations with the forms under way in the region. United States than with other coun- The report lumps Hungary and tries." Poland in one grouping, with the The chapter also notes that many German Democratic Republic, Cze- new military threats, such as bal- choslavakia, Romania and Bulgaria listic missile proliferation, "do not in another, and supports the famil- involve the Soviet Union directly," iar Bush policy of "differentiation," another official said. or support for those nations taking The implications of these new the greatest steps toward demo- developments for U.S. military pol- cratic reform. icy have not been decided by the Several officials said a likely de- Wolfowitz committee. But several cision to grant Poland and possibly officials complained last week that Hungary a "generalized system of preliminary drafts of other chapters preferences" designation, lifting of the report sought only to justify tariffs for certain trade goods, was continuing current U.S. military "consistent" with the report's rec- policies and programs. ommendations. Other economic concessions such as loan guarantees are said to be under consideration, although it was not clear whether these were expressly suggested by the report. 15. The Washington Post B-1 The New York Times Life After The Washington Times The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News 'Containment' USA Today The Chicago Tribune Date 9 APR 1989 -Muddling ready for both possibilities. In defense policy, the Bush team is wary of any grandiose version of Star Wars, but it may adopt a modest, ground-based scheme of stra- tegic defense that can be deployed without violating the ABM Treaty. The common theme in both instances is Through an administration seeking to hedge its bets. "There is a new centrist, prudent consensus emerg- ing in Washington that keeps conservative Democrats together with Republicans," says one high-level admin- istration official who has been involved in the policy By David Ignatius review. The price of this consensus, this official fears, may be that it produces "flat and uninteresting" options. OR-ROUGHLY 40 YEARS, the United States The best test of whether the Bush admin- F has embraced a global strategy for dealing istration is serious about "new thinking" will with the Soviet Union known as "contain- ment." Now, the Bush administration is pre- probably come in defense. The challenge paring to move to a slightly altered strategy, there is to look at the vast military estab- one that might best be described as "hedging your lishment that was created to support the bets." Cold War strategy of containment and de- "Hedging" may not sound very exciting, and it cer- cide how much is really needed today. But tainly won't mobilize the armies of the West for the it's not yet clear that the review process ideological battles of the 21st century. But it's probably will allow that kind of fundamental critique. a fair summary of what's emerging from the adminis- As one official involved in the review says, tration's broad examination of U.S. strategy, known in "There is a huge momentum for the policies the bureaucracy as the "National Security Review," or of the past." NSR. The administration's strategic review comes at an O verseeing the review are national appropriate time. Just last week, the architect of con- security adviser Brent Scowcroft and tainment, George F. Kennan, declared the old strategy his deputy, Bob Gates. They will be obsolete. aided by Washington attorney R. James "What we are witnessing today in Russia is the break- Woolsey, who is taking a leave of absence up of much, if not all, of the system of power by which from his law practice. Starting this week, that country has been held together and governed since Woolsey will begin reading what are expect- 1917," Kennan told the Senate Foreign Relations Com- ed to total more than a dozen NSR mittee. "Whatever reasons there may once have been studies-on everything from Afghanistan to for regarding the Soviet Union primarily as a possible, if arms control. About half are already com- not probable, military opponent, the time for that sort pleted. of thing has clearly passed." This sort of grand bureaucratic exercise It falls to George Bush to offer an alternative ap- proach. But for several reasons, the Bush administra- is beloved by new administrations. It pro- tion isn't likely to match the bold vision that character- duces stacks of impressive-looking NSC ized postwar American policy. The first reason is that documents that reassure officials that they the times are SO different: We're now in a period of un- do indeed have policies on the major issues. certainty and transition, rather than one like the late And it distracts the bureaucracy itself for '40s, when we faced a clear threat from an expansionist several crucial months, freeing top-level enemy. The second reason is the cautious, compromis- officials to take hold of their agencies and ing personality of George Bush himself. He's no Mikhail departments. Indeed, some veterans re- Gorbachev, and that may be just as well. One risk- member that Henry Kissinger ordered a taking, visionary leader may be all the world can handle similar across-the-board review when he at any one time. became national security adviser in 1969- The review process isn't completed yet, but officials mainly to keep the bureaucrats out of his who are taking part see some outlines beginning. to hair. emerge. In assessing U.S.-Soviet affairs, the adminis- tration has concluded that it's unsure whether Mikhail Gorbachev will succeed or fail-and it wants to be CONTINUED Page 36. 2. The Bush administration has already fol- lowed another bureaucratic tradition by re- naming the various interagency groups that are part of the national-security process. The Bush administration may in fact be ("Process" is a favorite word in NSC-land, more skeptical toward Gorbachev than was as in "The NSDD is hung up at the NFIB Reagan's. Indeed, some Bush officials pri- because of a process problem.") vately argue that Reagan and Secretary of State George Shultz caught a mild case of Gone are the IGs (interagency groups) Gorby-mania during their last two years in and SIGs (senior interagency groups) of the office and began to feel they had a stake in Reagan years. In their place are the PCCs the Soviet leader's success. (short for policy-coordinating committees) "This team is more cautious," says one and above that, the DC (deputies commit- official. That caution will protect the admin- tee), staffed by deputy secretaries and un- istration from the "downside" risk if Gor- dersecretaries. The idea, presumably, is bachev should fail; but it may also limit the that committees with new names may not "upside" benefit if Gorbachev succeeds. be quite so prone to pettifogging and turf (The Bush group, skeptical to the core, isn't battles as the old ones were. even sure that it's in America's long-term Some officials doubt the elaborate NSR interest that Gorbachev succeed.) process will be where the real action is. The One specific U.S.-Soviet recommenda- new buzzword in the administration is "off- tion: The Bush administration has decided line" discussion of key issues-that is, mov- to add a fifth category-"global issues," ing them out of the PCC and DC apparatus such as drugs, environmental issues and and into the hands of Scowcroft, Secretary terrorism-to the traditional superpower of Defense Richard Cheney and Secretary agenda of arms control, regional issues, bi- of State James Baker. lateral issues and human rights. One person who clearly is paying atten- Eastern Europe. "Differentiation, plus tion to the NSR process-and anxiously carrots" is how one official summarizes the awaiting its completion-is Mikhail Gorba- policy. By that he means that the Bush ad- chev. He complained last Thursday in Lon- ministration wants to continue the Reagan don about the "prolonged" review of U.S.- policy of differentiating among the Warsaw Soviet relations and the administration's Pact countries and offering special benefits "hesitation" in developing policy. His to those that show independence from Mos- spokesman Gennadi Gerasimov elaborated: cow. The administration's problem is that "We understand that the new administra- because of the budget crunch, it doesn't tion needs time to develop policy But I have many carrots to offer. think the new administration tries to please An early test will be Poland, which last everybody, and that's not easy." week announced a broad reform program that brings it close to multiparty democra- D etails about some aspects of the Bush cy. The Catholic Church and the Solidarity review can be found elsewhere in trade union are sure to appeal to the Bush today's Washington Post. Here's a administration for help. How we respond brief summary of some of the issues the will help shape Poland's future, and that of administration has been debating-and the the rest of Eastern Europe. The Bush ad- key problems: ministration may be able to do little more, The Soviet Union. Agnosticism about than encourage private investment. Gorbachev appears to be a major theme of Secretary of State Baker has dropped a Bush review. "The focus was on the internal tantalizing hint of a more ambitious policy phenomenon," says one knowledgeable ad- that would seek negotiations with Europe to ministration official. "Where will it lead? end the Yalta division of Europe and loosen How secure is it? There was a non-euphoric Moscow's control over the Warsaw Pact assessment, and all sorts of questions. You countries. He told The New York Times have to assume that he's in power, that he'll last month that the idea was "worthy of con- survive. But you have to recognize the vul- sideration because it is a novel approach." nerabilities. And you have to question how Western Europe. Officials say the real far he'll go." issue hasn't yet been resolved: Can the CONTINUED 37. United States learn to love a stronger and Defense. NSR 12, dealing with defense more unified Europe? issues, involves the thorniest issues of all. One focus for this debate has been the That's partly because of budget pressures, interagency dickering over how the United and partly because decisions about strategic States should:respond to the planned 1992 and conventional forces are linked to arms- integration of the European Community. control policy. According to several officials Some officials at the Treasury and Com- involved in the review, defense is the area merce department are said to see EC-'92 as where creative thinking is most needed— the enemy, because it's likely to make Eu- and where the bureaucratic obstacles are rope a tougher and more protectionist trad- biggest. ing partner. Others at the State Depart- The challenge, in the simplest sense, is to ment and the NSC see this stronger post- decide how much of our global military ma- 1992 Europe as a potential strategic advan- chine we really need in this era of greatly tage for the United States. reduced tensions with the Soviet Union. Another contentious issue has been The American military is now organized as whether European countries should coop- if war with the Soviet Union is imminent. erate more closely on defense, through The Army has 28 combat divisions and 22 what's known in bureaucratese as the "Eu- combat brigades "capable of projecting ropean pillar." Traditionalists at the State prompt, sustained military power anywhere Department and the Pentagon, who fear in the world," according to this year's Army that any basic change in NATO may lead to posture statement. The Navy boasts that it its unraveling, are wary of the European is "a symbol of U.S. involvement in the glob- pillar. Modernizers favor it, on the grounds al arena" and "capable of winning a global that it will make Europe stronger militari- war." That translates into a Navy insistence ly-which, after all, is NATO's purpose in on 15 carrier battle groups, four battleship the first place. The modernizers hope they battle groups and 100 attack submarines! can count Scowcroft among their band, but The 1989 Navy posture statement dis- the returns aren't in yet. "The U.S. can't be seen as defending the misses the possibility that the nation could status quo in Europe," warns one official. conceivably make do with less: "One ques- "We need to be seen as promoting change." tion often asked is, 'Why 15 deployable car- Middle East. Senior Bush administration rier battle groups? Couldn't you get by with officials have written so many policy papers fewer carriers?' The answer, quite simply, is no " and op-ed pieces on the Middle East over the years that the danger here may be too That's an example of the resistance the much strategy rather than too little. Bush administration will face to innovations The Reagan years demonstrate that all such as those proposed by Scowcroft and the well-crafted peace plans in the world Woolsey in a paper prepared last fall for a aren't much use if the Arabs and Israelis group called American Agenda. The two aren't ready to talk-and if the president of officials suggested moving "a larger number the United States isn't prepared to commit of units from active to reserve" status. his personal prestige to breaking the dead- They proposed relying "more heavily on lock. smaller ships or submarines, carrying very "You can see a strategy emerging" after accurate conventional cruise missiles, rath- last week's meetings with Egyptian Pres- er than on aircraft carrier battle ident Hosni Mubarak and Israeli Prime Min- groups And they suggested greater ister Yitzhak Shamir, says one official. Of- use of unmanned aircraft. ficials say this approach has been outlined in The generals and admirals aren't going to a review paper and was discussed at an NSC like any of that, and it remains to be seen meeting last week. Key details include con- whether Scowcroft and Woolsey will actu- fidence-building measures and mutual de- ally use the grand bureaucratic machine escalation on the ground, leading toward known as the National Security Review to elections in the West Bank and Gaza. push their innovative ideas. David Ignatius is editor of the Outlook section. Post researcher Lynda Edwards contributed to this article. 38. The Washington Post BUSH URGED TO FIND The New York Times A1 The Washington Times A MIDDLE COURSE The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News ON SOVIET CHANGES USA Today The Chicago Tribune Date REACTIONS TO GORBACHEV Administration specialists say the 9 APR 1989 classified analysis submitted to the In addition, the Administration has White House tries to strike a balance pressed Moscow to cut off arms deliv- Official Study Recommends between these two approaches. eries to Nicaragua, which is discussed Anti-Terrorism Stressed in the classified review. Cooperation on Regional Administration officials involved in The analysis advises the President to the analysis said Soviet willingess to take advantage of the changes in Soviet Issues and Terrorism cut arms supplies to Managua repre- domestic and foreign policy by care- sented an opportunity to test Moscow's fully seeking to broaden the dialogue intention to cooperate in regional set- between the superpowers on regional tlements in the third world. By MICHAEL R. GORDON issues to include such regions as the The study of Soviet policy, known as Special to The New York Times Horn of Africa. It also recommends National Security Review 3, is but one WASHINGTON, April 8- Adminis- giving more prominence to joint efforts of several policy reviews ordered by tration experts have advised President to combat terrorism and the spread of Mr. Bush as soon as he took office to chemical weapons and ballistic mis- "insure compatibility among our com- Bush to steer a middle course between siles, among other initiatives. mitments, strategies, capabilities and a skeptical approach toward the poli- resources." cies of Mikhail S. Gorbachev and re- Administration specialists define the approach as an "evolution" of the Complaints About Pace sponding with bold foreign policy initia- tives of its own, Administration offi- current United States policy toward Soviet officials have complained Moscow, which they say has been suc- about the slow pace of the Administra- cials said today. cessful. But the analysis is likely to dis- tion's review, which has delayed a re- The recommended approach, called "status-quo plus" by Government spe- appoint critics who favor more dra- sumption of the talks to cut long-range nuclear arms. But Mr. Bush has de- cialists, is outlined in a classified matic moves to improve relations. fended the need for a careful review as analysis commissioned by President It is not known what Mr. Bush thinks a foundation for policy decisions. Bush as part of the Administration's of the study, which is about 30 pages While the review of Soviet policy is broad review of American-Soviet poli- long. well advanced, other assessments are One senior Administration official proceeding slowly. cy. The analysis - prepared by the Cen- who supports the review said it was un- Senior Administration officials re- viewing arms control policy met for tral Intelligence Agency. the State Des clear how influential the study would partment, the Pentagon and the staff of be, adding that policy decisions were the first time on Wednesday - one the National Security Council - con- more likely to be thrashed out among month before Mr. Baker is to go to cludes that the process of change in the Mr. Bush and small circle of high-level Moscow to discuss the resumption of the strategic arms talks. advisers. Soviet Union is likely to continue "The analysis presented to the N.S.C. The arms control review, formally throughout the Bush Administration called National Security Review 14, fo- even if Mikhail S. Gorbachev was re- could be a valuable tool," another offi- cuses on strategic arms questions. placed by another Soviet leader, offi- cial said. "But the vision in there is not Issues to be considered in the review cials said. articulated very strongly, and there include whether to modify or abandon are plenty of caveats and what-ifs in the proposed limit on nuclear delivery High-Level Skepticism there. Until that vision is there and systems, whether to ban mobile mis- Mr. Bush, Brent Scowcroft, his na- somebody is pushing from the top very siles with multiple warheads and tional security adviser, and Robert M. strongly, it is not clear whether we will whether to adjust the American pro- Gates, the deputy security adviser, really take advantage of the opportuni- posal for counting cruise missiles have tended to take a skeptical stance ties." launched by airplanes. toward Moscow in their public com- Final decisions on what policies to A parallel review on military issues ments. At the same time, some experts adopt on American-Soviet relations known as National Security Review 12 will be made by Mr. Bush and his top is being overseen by Paul D. Wolfowitz, have complained that this approach is aides. But some of the initiatives dis- Mr. Bush's choice to be Under Secre- too cautious at a time of momentous change in the Soviet Union and could cussed in the study have already been tary of Defense for Policy. But Admin- taken up by the Administration. istration officals report that the review cost the Administration what they see Secretary of State James A. Baker is proceeding slowly. as a critical opportunity to transform 3d, for instance, broached the idea of Analysis in Two Parts American-Soviet relations. American-Soviet cooperation on ter- The classified analysis submitted to "The real debate in the Administra- rorism in his meeting last month in the White House consists of two main tion will be between the two centrist Vienna with the Soviet Foreign Minis- parts: an analysis of trends in the positions - the stand-pat school and ter, Eduard A. Shevardnadze. Soviet Union and a section on Amer- the seize-the-opportunity school," said Mr. Baker also announced in Vienna ican policy toward Moscow. The first Representative Les Aspin, Democrat that the United States would explore of Wisconsin and chairman of the the idea of speeding up the withdrawal of chemical weapons from West Ger- House Armed Services Committee. many, a idea developed during the re- view. ONTINUED Page 12. draft of the section on Soviet trends Horn of Africa Cited was prepared by the Central Intelli- The "status-quo plus" approach says gence Agency while the first draft on that the United States should seek to American policy toward Moscow was broaden the agenda of regional issues prepared by the State Department. to include such disputes as the fighting Comments were solicited by other between Ethiopia and Somalia in the agencies and the report was completed Horn of Africa. last month. It recommends that the United The analysis of Soviet trends asserts States give more prominence to joint that there is a better than even chance efforts to combat terrorism by sharing that Mr. Gorbachev will endure as the information and asking Moscow to put Soviet leader. It acknowledges that the pressure on client states to stop sup- political and economic changes made porting terrorist groups and to combat since he took office are substantial but the spread of chemical weapons and notes that it will take decades to carry ballistic missiles. out some important changes, particu- The report notes that strong differ- larly in the economy. ences remain to be resolved within the The study argues that Moscow's Administration on trade. Some Com- preoccupation with political and eco- merce Department officials favor a nomic change will probably continue more liberal trade policy, but the Pen- through Mr. Bush's term in office, even tagon strongly opposes increased if Mr. Gorbachev is replaced by an- trade. Officials say the predominant other Soviet leader. But officials con- view in the Administration favors a cede that Mr. Gorbachev's departure gradual liberalization in trade. could affect the pace and scope of the Washington should continue to press changes. for human rights improvement in the The study says there is broad sup- Soviet Union, the report says. port for the view that change is needed The analysis, though advocating a to help the Soviet Union modernize its cautious process of advancing initia- economy and society. Even if Mr. Gor- tives, projects a long-term goal in bachev is replaced, Moscow will face which there would be a truce in the pressures to divert resources to civil- military competition between the su- ian needs from military activities. perpowers. Soviet Intentions Unknown The analysis sidesteps the question of what Moscow's ultimate intentions may be, suggesting that they cannot be known now. It says the changes may be carried out for tactical reasons to gain a "breathing space" to strengthen the Soviet system and thus prepare for fur- ther competition with the West. Or it may represent more fundamental political and economic changes in the direction of a pluralistic society. Critics of the "status-quo plus" ap- proach say that it underestimates the importance of Mr. Gorbachev role, is too sanguine about the inevitabilty of change in Mr. Gorbachev's absence and is too cautious in advocating moves to take advantage of immediate opportunities to improve American- Soviet relations. But defenders of the approach argue that it provides a basis for undertaking initiatives, albeit cautiously, in the face of uncertainties as to Mr. Gorbachev's future. "Our argument is that we should not base policy on whether Gorbachev will survive or not," an Administration offi- cial said. "We should base it on U.S. in- terests. Since we don't have to be too worried about Gorbachev's survivabil- ity, we do not have to shrink from put- ting forth initiatives." Some Administration officials, such as Mr. Gates, the deputy security ad- viser, have publicly presented a some- what different analysis that questions the breadth of support in the Soviet Union for far-reaching change. 13. WASHINGTON TIMES 11 APRIL 1989 Woerner, Bush will discuss mis State Department spokesman Rich- many's allies including the United ard Boucher would say only that the States, the United Kingdom and By Thomas J. Breen talks will focus on "the alliance, France. THE WASHINGTON TIMES NATO's plans [and] issues before West Germany's opposition to the NATO Secretary General Man- NATO." modernization comes as the West fred Woerner meets with President But other administration officials German public increasingly op- Bush in Washington later this week and foreign diplomats said Mr. Woer- poses any increase in nuclear weap- amid a continuing dispute between ner clearly was coming here with ons. West Germany and the United States high hopes of resolving the dispute At the same time the West Ger- over whether to modernize short- before the crucial May 29-30 NATO man government has been pushing range nuclear missiles in Europe. summit in Brussels. There the 16 hard to ensure good relations with Mr. Woerner, a former West Ger- NATO countries will lay out strat- the United States despite the missile man defense minister, is expected to egies for continued disarmament flap. seek a compromise from Washing- and dealing with rapid changes in One German official, Irmgard ton that would give the green light the Soviet Union and Eastern Eu- Adam-Schwaetzer, was sent to Wash- for modernization but not set a date rope. ington last week to smooth some of for production and deployment. The NATO leader wants all the those ruffled diplomatic feathers. The United States and most other allies to enter the summit with a NATO members, including Britain united front, according to one for- "I wish to make it unequivocally clear that the Germans are and France, consider moderniz tion eign diplomat of the Lance missile key to the secu- Since February, when West Ger- firmly embedded in the community man Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Western democracies," she said in rity of Western Europe. But West Germany repeatedly shocked his NATO allies by shifting a public speech. "They [the Ger- shifts away from that view and op- his stance and hinting strongly that mans] are not drifting eastward. In poses immediate modernization of the modernization of the missiles actual fact, it is the Soviet Union un- the short-range Lance. Most of the should be postponed until 1991 or der Gorbachev, and Eastern Europe, Lances are based in West Germany 1992, the issue has dominated pri- that are opening up to the West." and, if used, would fall on West Ger- vate talks between alliance partners, During his Washington trip later man soil. according to diplomats and analysts. this week, NATO's Mr. Woerner is But some diplomats and analysts Opposition to the modernization scheduled to meet with Vice Pres- believe the West Germans would ac- of the Lance missiles - considered ident Dan Quayle, Secretary of State cept the updating of the missiles if the backbone of the short-range nu- James A. Baker III, Defense Secre- there were no firm dates for produc- clear forces arsenal - strikes at the tary Richard B. Cheney, National Se- tion and deployment. heart of the 40-year-old NATO pact, curity Adviser Brent Scowcroft and In confirming Mr. Woerner's trip, in the view of most of West Ger- members of Congress. The Washington Post The New York Times The Washington Times In '61 We Had a President The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News Who Didn't Just Stand There USA Today The Chicago Tribune BALT. SUN A-11 Date 14 APR 1989 Washington. I T HAPPENED 28 years ago next ran on a platform of continuity rath- Monday: A U.S.-financed brigade friends who remind him of Jimmy er than change. He was in on foreign of expatriate Cubans was Carter. Mr. Carter, too, had high ear- policy, deeper than he has admitted, ly ratings. They plummeted when he dumped into swamps on the south for eight years as vice president. Pre- couldn't explain where he wanted to shore of Matanzas province and effi- sumably he could make bold moves go. Mr. Bush should do what Mr. immediately. without appointing Reagan did, his worried well-wishers committees to restudy the world. By Ernest B. Furgurson say: use his popularity now, before it Instead, Mr. Bush has been cau- disappears, to get the country mov- tious. His secretary of state, Jim ing toward his major goals. Baker, is a negotiator instead of a ciently mopped up by Fidel Castro's But he clearly isn't going to head blusterer. Rather than challenging army. Thus ended the first great for- out without a map. Mr. ,Bush isn't Congress to another showdown over eign-policy initiative of the Kennedy Ronald Reagan. Jim Baker isn't Al- contra aid - and probably losing administration. exander Haig. The current national- again - he worked out a Nicaragua We will profit by remembering security adviser, the infinitely care- deal that quietly abandons Mr. ful Brent Scowcroft, isn't Richard the Bay of Pigs in these first months Reagan's war there. of the Bush administration. Allen. George Bush isn't Jimmy Car- But in great-power relations, mat- John Kennedy became president ter, either. Nor is he Jack Kennedy. ters of East and West, bombs and Mr. Scowcroft said before the with the promise to "get this country missiles, the president has hinted no moving again" - that youth and Bush inauguration that the White new departures. In domestic affairs, vigor would replace the Chamber of House review of foreign policy could events have forced him to take a Commerce satisfaction of the Eisen- take up to a year before new initia- stand here and blow with the wind hower Fifties. The Kennedy crew tives were ready. It won't be that there. Not in affairs abroad. was led by men who fought World long. The president's impatient Many of my opinionating col- friends and critics will find the War II, eager to take over from those leagues, itchy politicians and indeed waiting easier if they take a moment who managed it. They would be Mr. Gorbachev himself have urged this week to recall the Bay of Pigs. tough and smart. They would never Mr. Bush to do something quick, and be accused of just standing there in- stop just standing there. stead of doing something. His friends are concerned that Kennedy inherited from Eisen- the president's low profile allows the hower the plan to overthrow Castro peripatetic Soviet leader to win the with Cubans who had fled the revo- world public-relations contest. They lution. Some of the president's ad- wanted Mr. Bush to do something visers opposed it, but it was just the splashy to compete with Mr. Gorba- kind of action he had implied in his chev's TV extravaganza in Cuba. inaugural address. It would make a The president's ostensible ally, the statement to America and the world. chronically indignant Sen. Orrin He adopted it, and less than three Hatch, warns that the Democrats months after his inauguration, the are likely to move into the foreign- CIA-trained expatriates went ashore. policy vacuum if Mr. Bush insists on The operation was a disaster. It more "passive pragmatism." led directly to Nikita Khrushchev's He needs to enunciate a message insertion of missiles into Cuba the What's his agenda? Who is following year, which came close to George Bush, anyway? What disaster of another magnitude. If does he stand for? When the Kennedy had taken his time to plan president doesn't create news, a new foreign policy, he might have doesn't offer the networks lively avoided all that. sound bites, coverage runs to that Now, almost three decades later, kind of analysis and speculation. we have another new president. He But he seems unconcerned, because the popularity polls say he's right. Even the polls don't convince Page 24. The Washington Post The New York Times 25E The Washington Times The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News AS PUBLISHED USA Today The Chicago Tribune Date 16 April Iran-Contra: The Fog Is Lifting In Mr. Sullivan's picture, Mr. North and the illegal "plumbers" as the break-in at By Scott Armstrong his superiors - President Reagan, former Democratic campaign headquarters - one Secretary of State George Shultz, former result of which was the creation of a perma- Washington Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger nent independent counsel mechanism to Watergate, the burglars kept silent and George Bush as Vice President - in- deal with such ongoing conspiracies. Now, in the Iran-contra conspiracy, who I until they saw the jail house doors tentionally diverted foreign aid and used it as a quid pro quo to gain third country sup- will tell us once and for all what happened, 1 in the Iran-contra affair, the first man put on trial has turned in port for the contras. The evidence makes it to whom, by whom? And if, as many sus- his superiors before the jury has apparent that President Reagan and key pect, these actions cannot be legally "au- even retired to deliberate. advisers lied to Congress, the Tower Com- thorized" by a President, who will bring the As is traditional in investigations of mission, the press and the American people culprits to justice? elaborate conspiracies, the independent to keep these arrangements secret. Congress is distracted by a debate over Minutes of a June 25, 1984, National Se- whether secret third country arrangements counsel, Lawrence Walsh, started prosecut- ing at the bottom rung of the organizational curity Planning Group Meeting reveal a were permitted by the Pell Amendment. heated debate about whether seeking third Some argue that the amendment's lan- ladder. Oliver North's defense has elicited country support for the contras would be an guage provides a loophole through which evidence that allows prosecutors to climb several rungs up to Cabinet officials and at impeachable offense. William Casey, the money could have been passed legally to least one- and perhaps two- Presidents. former Director of Central Intelligence, countries that supported the contras, as and Mr. Weinberger concluded that as long long as contra support was not the sole rea- In the coming months, the independent as the Congressional intelligence oversight son for the aid. Congress would do better to counsel will face enormous political and committees were informed. third country find out what happened and who was in the practical pressures to drop his vastly ex- panded inquiries. If he abandons his course solicitations were legal. loop before specifying the loophole. or aborts his mission, he will shortchange But Vice President Bush had the final word. Such solicitations, he said, would be et only Mr Walsh can decide the nation and jeopardize the future of all independent counsels. all right unless "the United States were to Y whether to take current and promise to give these third parties some- former officials to the grand Mr. Walsh was forced to drop the conspir- acy count concerning Mr. North's involve- thing in return, so that some people might jury to explain their intent interpret this as some kind of an ex- and authorization. They ment with other low-level conspirators for fear of disclosing intelligence and covert change." could include Mr. Shultz, Mr. According to trial evidence stipulated by Weinberger, John Negroponte (Ambassa- operations. Yet Judge Gerhard Gesell in ef- fect allowed the defense to put on much of Attorney General Richard Thornburgh as dor-designate to Mexico and former Am- the prosecution's case. accurate, Mr. Bush's warning was ignored. bassador to Honduras). Richard Armitage While the judge did not permit Ronald The President did personally approve - (Secretary of the Army-designate and for- with the active involvement of Mr. Bush, mer Assistant Secretary of Defense), E.1- Reagan to be subpoenaed, he allowed the liott Abrams (former Assistant Secretary defense to try to show how many of Mr. Mr. Shultz and Mr. Weinberger - special of State) and Donald Gregg (Ambassador- North's far-ranging and questionable ac- tivities were authorized. Had these defense aid for Honduras. It was fear of disclosing designate to South Korea and former Vice arguments come a year ago, they would this quid pro quo that forced Mr. North to Presidential aide). have made a straightforward case for the lie to Congress, his lawyer has argued. In the end, Mr. Walsh may be reluctant to impeachment of the former President. The trial evidence also disclosed consid- prosecute individuals for actions as compli- eration of and, in some instances the ap- cated and potentially ambiguous as the Common wisdom has held that the North trial would revolve around the arcane and proval of, similar arrangements with Costa decisions to give foreign aid, but only his Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama, continuing investigation can tell us who was interlocked questions of Mr. North's intent to commit the crimes alleged and the de- Taiwan, China, Chile, Israel and, for other responsible, whether or not it is feasible to favors, Saudi Arabia. The conspiracy in- indict or prosecute them. gree of authorization from his superiors. Mr. North's lawyer, Brendan Sullivan, has cluded passing out foreign aid monies to re- argued that his client never intended to plenish third country arms and supplies break any law and was generally author- passed through to the contras - a criminal CONTINUED ized by President Reagan within the misappropriation of funds specifically ear- "seamless web" of covert activities. marked by Congress for other purposes. Mr. Sullivan also asserts, and such wit- The Iran-contra affair thereafter is the nesses as the former national security ad- story of a cover-up - not just of the diver- viser Robert McFarlane confirm, that the sion of profits from the arms-for-hostages deceptions of which Mr. North is still ac- deal with Iran, but of the larger unconstitu- cused were compelled by the need to hide tionality of having made numerous third from Congress more serious machinations country arrangements. Similarly, the by the President and his Cabinet. For Mr. Watergate cover-up was as much to hide North to expose one thread of this "seam- less web" would have led inexorably to its Page 14. center: President Reagan. The purpose of the independent counsel And by defining the issue of the Presi- 2 statute is to assure not only the prosecution dent's role as whether he knew of a diver- of public officials but the restoration of pub- sion of Iran arms sale profits to contra cof- lic confidence. Mr. Walsh is obliged to in- fers, the committees ignored Presidential vestigate further. With sworn testimony on authorizations of illegal and unconstitu- the record about the former President and tional activities. They settled for criticizing his Cabinet, Mr. Walsh would be remiss not the logic of ransoming hostages from ter- to take the material to a grand jury. rorists with arms. Mr. Walsh's autonomy has been episodi- Nothing in the charter of the independent cally challenged by Justice Department counsel says that he must explain what an rulings to withhold necessary classified in- executive commission and several legisla- formation. However, Judge Gesell allowed tive committees could not or would not. into evidence previously classified details When the Watergate committee originally of this secret conspiracy and Mr. Thorn- recommended the creation of an independ- burgh did not prevent their disclosure. Mr. ent counsel, however, it understood that only by requiring a formal report on all al- Walsh now has a stronger hand. legations would such politically charged If a grand jury chose to return more in- matters ever be put to rest. dictments, the Attorney General would Pardons will certainly not end the mat- have to rethink his earlier decisions to with- ter. To pardon any or all of those implicated hold classified information. So much highly would be as unpalatable as Watergate's classified information has already come "Saturday Night Massacre." Unless those out that any further national security dam- pardoned step down and become unim- age is likely to be incremental at worst. And peachable, pardons would not end Mr. the political damage is already so extensive Walsh's obligation to investigate and report that the Attorney General has a powerful any potentially impeachable acts. incentive to clear the air. Mr. Walsh is also The independent counsel's mandate - obliged to prepare a report detailing what the restoration of public confidence - re- investigations and prosecutions he did and quires him to prosecute where necessary did not pursue, and why. Such reports are and, where prosecution is impossible, inap- normally made public. propriate or undesirable, to explain what These are not his only options. Under the happened and why. Independent counsels law, the independent counsel may report to unearth, expose and explain abuses of Congress. He may refer information about power. Should Mr. Walsh be forced to cut those now awaiting confirmation to new ap- back his investigation, he will be - by defi- pointments. In the case of potentially im- nition and moral authority - the last "inde- peachable offenses applicable not only to pendent" counsel. the President but to any official confirmed by Congress - the independent counsel must refer such information. Scott Armstrong, executive director of the ut if he is to be truly independ- National Security Archive, a library and re- B ent and effective, Mr. Walsh search organization, is co-editor of "The must also assess what the ex- Chronology: The Day by Day Account of the Iran-contra Affair." ecutive branch and Congress have already done to expose wrongdoing. He must look to the Senate Intelligence Committee. the Tower Commission and the Congressional Iran-contra committees The lower Commission - led through its analysis by Brent Scoweroft, the national security adviser to Presidents Nixon, Ford and now Bush - happily concluded that the National Security Council was a fine organ- ization led astray by a few bad apples. In their haste to clear President Reagan and the N.S.C., Mr. Scowcroft. John Tower and Edmund Muskie harshiy condemned John Poindexter, Mr. McFarlane and Mr. North. While the Tower board may have been misled about the extent of certain contra- related operations, it rubber-stamped an in- teragency process that institutionalizes pri- vate government - covert actions done "off the books" without checks and bal- ances, financed from abroad. The Senate Intelligence Committee spent most of its energy determining how many times it had been lied to by how many Ad- ministration officials. It and other Iran-cop- tra investigating committees were unwill- ing to probe covert activities or expose to criticism complicit allies. such as Israel or Saudi Arabia. Declaring themselves unable to address, much less redress. American policy toward Central America, committee members allowed the White House once more to blame a few zealots. 15. NEW REPUBLIC 17 APRIL 1989 Pg. 7 ROOKIE OF THE YEAR? pened if Ford had heeded Cheney's warnings to admit quickly that he'd erred in declaring Poland free), Cheney became Wyoming's at-large con- gressman. He moved immediately onto the House lead- Dick Cheney, the new secretary of defense, is not as ership track, rising unopposed this year to the position prepared for the job as Harold Brown (a former Air of Republican whip. Had Cheney not suffered a series of Force secretary) was in 1977 or Melvin Laird (a veteran heart attacks, it's likely he'd have been Bush's vice presi- of the House defense appropriations subcommittee) in dent. (He underwent bypass surgery last summer.) 1969. He was picked because Bush was looking for a Democrats regard him as a hard-line conservative parti- quickly confirmable member of Congress to put into san and a shrewd tactician, but they also like him for place after John Tower's rejection. He seemed the best his refreshing directness; he is one of the few right- of the names assembled by Bush's White House advis- wingers to call himself "right wing." ers-the others were Republican Senators William Co- Cheney is not an expert on defense, but neither is he hen, Warren Rudman, Jake Garn, and William Ste- a novice. He's served on several think tank policy pan- vens-and besides, he was highly recommended by els, including one organized by Brown and Scowcroft national security adviser Brent Scowcroft, with whom last year to review options for strategic weapons mod- he'd worked closely in the Ford White House. ernization. He has a record of clear pronouncements Cheney, as they say. has his work cut out for him. The on defense issues-almost invariably, hardest-line- Pentagon is not used to tough management. Caspar Weinberger, in securing funding for a defense buildup ranging from SDI to support for the Nicaraguan con- tras. He is not a defense intellectual, but he is an intel- that was needed to counter a Soviet threat, simply shov- lectual. He completed his course work for a Ph.D. (but eled the money-$1.7 trillion-to the services to spend got waylaid into government before writing his disser- as they wished, and then tried to invent a strategy to explain the results. The Bush administration's chal- tation), and he has written a book about Congress with his wife, who's director of the National Endowment for lenge is to reverse the process: to devise a strategy first, the Humanities. and then do the spending. The early signs are that Cheney won't let the Defense This is not a revòlutionary proposal. But it is a more pressing one now than it usually is when made by edito- Department run him. From talks with Tower and others, rial writers. The reasons are: (a) the budget deficit; he apparently gained the strong conviction that the Pen- (b) Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev is proposing that we tagon was out of control. He took the earliest opportu- nitv to demonstrate who's boss by chastising the Air radically reduce armaments and promising to change the security environment of the world for the better. We Force chief of staff, Gen. Larry D. Welch, for allegedly need to take the opportunity he provides to save money trying to negotiate a compromise plan on strategic on defense spending, but we also need to stay prepared, weapons with Congress before the administration had decided what its plans were. (Other witnesses claim and keep our alliances intact, in case he can't or won't deliver. And we have to do this in an era of exploding Welch was merely taking soundings, not trying to up- stage his bosses.) Cheney has also indicated with his first technology and spiraling costs. The task facing Cheney is to cut up to $300 billion from projected defense appointments-notably, Richard Armitage as Navy sec- spending over the next five years-an amount equal to a retary and Paul Wolfowitz as policy undersecretary- full year's Pentagon outlays-and also to build the right that he means to establish strong civilian rule over the weapons for America's defense, not those that fit the building. services' parochial needs. To secure true control, however, Cheney will have to Cheney has the intellectual and political tools needed finish two major reforms: full implementation of the to carry out this charge. To be sure, he has his short- Packard commission recommendations on procure- comings. Sometimes his hard-liner instincts translate ment, and the creation of civilian management devices into a misguided enthusiasm for new weapons systems. in the secretary's office capable of counterbalancing the His historically strong and undiscriminating support of new centralized power over the military services (under the Goldwater-Nichols reforms of 1986) in the chair- the Strategic Defense Initiative could stand rethinking. And he would do well to subdue his excitement about man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Packard commis- anti-satellite weapons long enough to ponder the vir- sion called for appointment of a new procurement czar tues of a verifiable anti-satellite weapons treaty. (In both in the Pentagon; the job exists, but it does not have cases, insufficient appreciation of the finer points of czarist powers, nor do subordinate program managers deterrence theory seems to be the problem, plus a dose have the power and independence they need to build of House minority partisan zeal; now a tight budget and the most efficient weapons at the cheapest price. As one executive responsibility could be the cure.) But for his top administration official put it, "The organization core responsibilities-shrewdly and toughly managing charts have been rearranged, but the culture of the the Pentagon, and (when a negotiated agreement makes Pentagon hasn't changed." it wise) sensibly cutting NATO's force structure while Moreover, Weinberger downgraded or ignored for- adapting it to a changing world-Cheney is better quali- merly powerful civilian management tools-the Office fied than John Tower, or just about anyone else we can of Net Assessment and the Program Analysis and Evalu- think of. ation Office-which had been used by previous secre- Cheney is one of the most formidable politicians in taries to gauge the threats faced by the United States America. At 34, he was White House chief of staff, and in and to choose the best weapons to meet those threats. that role he was almost universally praised for his fair- Revitalization of those offices will give Cheney the ana- ness and decisiveness. He foresaw, when President Ford lytical muscle necessary to stand up to the military services. did not, the 1976 Republican nomination challenge of Ronald Reagan, and organized a successful defense. After Ford's nomination, Cheney arranged the promo- he big defense issues for this administration con- tion of Ford's delegate hunter, one James Baker III. to be campaign manager; now the two have im- T sist of two questions that are subordinate to a third. What should the United States do about portant work to do together again. Two years European defense, in view of Gorbachev's offers after Ford's defeat (which might not have hap- ROOKIE Pg. 16 ROOKIE from Pg. 15 baggage of the Reagan years to conduct a straight cost-benefit study of competing systems. to make massive conventional cutbacks? What systems Most conspicuously, there is the question of how to should the United States deploy to ensure a stable stra- keep our ground-based missiles invulnerable and thus tegic deterrent? How should the United States cut the preserve deterrence even if the other legs of the nuclear defense budget without harming national security? triad should become vulnerable. There is no need for a What the United States needs most-but hasn't got crash program here, as we are at least years away from yet-is a strategy for Europe. Gorbachev clearly has seeing our nuclear-armed submarines, say, become vul- one-a neutralized Germany and a denuclearized Eu- nerable. But a decision needs to be made, and the pro- rope. This much is implicit in the Soviet proposals for gram embarked upon, if at a moderate, frugal pace. The "armament limitation zones" (with few tanks in much of choice is between the mobile Midgetman missile (with Germany) and abandonment of short-range nuclear one or two warheads) favored by Democrats or the ten- weapons, as well as in the assiduous courting by the warhead mobile MX (favored by Reagan and the Air Soviets of German financiers. The Soviets also want to Force): There are also choices as to the precise means of be considered part of Europe, and wouldn't mind at all MX mobility. We have had our own preference for if the United States became increasingly insignificant in Midgetman, believing that a force of 300 to 500 single- the region both militarily and economically. warhead mobile missiles was the deterrent least vul- Gorbachev has stolen a political march on the United nerable to Soviet attack and therefore the most stabi- States by putting forward a proposal for unilateral with- lizing. We've also been deeply skeptical of SDI- drawals of 50,000 men and 5,000 tanks from Central another big-ticket item that Cheney will have to grap- Europe, and by proposing a conventional arms control ple with-except as a research program to counter So- agreement under which tank forces would be reduced to viet research and to determine whether strategic de- 26,000 on each side-which would involve a reduction fense can in any form be stabilizing and effective. In from 30,000 by NATO and of 60,000 by the Warsaw Pact. both of these positions we've been in good company, On the surface this sounds like an attractive offer-and such as that of Scowcroft and Brown-though not of it in fact is. Even Pentagon consultant and European Cheney, who's favored the rail-mobile MX and SDI. defense specialist Phillip Karber, whose hard-line cre- But he's still young. dentials no one doubts, has, after studying the Soviet Finally, on the defense budget, we think the adminis- initiatives, declared that "we face the possibility of a tration would do well to follow the lead of Representa- dramatic reversal of the whole cold war structure of tive Les Aspin of Wisconsin, who favors cutting first military deployments" if the Soviets fulfill their prom- those things that are reversible in case Gorbachev re- ises of withdrawals. verses his course or is overthrown, and cutting last that This is not to say that the agreement is ready for which can't be replaced. That is, first cut the manpower, signing. Formidable problems remain, notably that the training, and readiness budgets, leaving existing units Soviets want compensating reductions in NATO air intact and continuing to buy major weapons systems power. All told, the NATO counteroffer-reductions to currently contracted for; next, thin out or close down equal levels of 8,000 tanks in Central Europe and military units, starting with those based in the United 20,000 in all of Europe-may be a better starting point States; and last, cancel major weapons acquisitions. (although, as Karber notes, it has been presented in Aspin has rightly proposed that big new weapons such a complex formula as to be "politically unintelli- proposals-an advanced fighter aircraft, new attack sub- gible" to the peace-hungry European public). Still, the marines and tanks- should be researched, but not put gap between the two sides seems clearly bridgeable. into production until it's clearer how U.S.-Soviet rela- An agreement that would help both is within reach. tions will develop. Unfortunately, there is a distinct risk and we trust that Cheney's hard-line impulses will that neither this philosophy nor any other will guide this merely improve the terms, not block a pact and lose a year's defense budget planning. Cheney plans to pro- large opportunity. duce a revised budget by mid-April, and apparently it's Of course, a conventional arms agreement can't (or at being compiled by Weinbergerish methods: letting the least shouldn't) be signed in the absence of a full-blown military decide what to cut, just as Weinberger used to alliance political strategy. Indications are the adminis- let the military decide what to build during the fat years. tration is inching toward one, in the form of a design for This may be an excusable way to cope with the short a demilitarized Eastern Europe, but it hasn't said what notice of his new responsibilities that Cheney was given. that future would hold for Western Europe. Right away, though, he should start planning for next n nuclear policy, we hope that the administration year. The Pentagon can and should be under control by is divesting itself of enough of the ideological the 1990s. THE NEW REPUBLIC 17 APRIL 1989 Pg. 12 WHITE HOUSE WATCH of an astrodome over the entire country, a perfect shield deflecting all nuclear missiles. Still, he defended that theory in public. In 1986 Bush toured Europe with Gen. James .Abrahamson, the SDI chief, to fill in NATO leaders P on advances in Star Wars research. He hit it off well with Abrahamson, though he'd been warned the general was EBBLES GO BAM-BAM an SDI zealot. "He ought to be," Bush told an aide. "That's his job. I'll find other people who'll give me the criticism." By Fred Barnes ush did, hearing from Scowcroft, among others. ne day last July, President Reagan and Vice Presi- O B And in the presidential campaign last year, he ran dent Bush gathered in the Situation Room in the hot and cold on SDI. In a debate with Jack Kemp White House basement. The room is window- in Dallas on February 19, 1988, he said he'd only less, low-ceilinged, and secure, used mostly for deploy an astrodome. (He didn't mention his doubts meetings of the National Security Council and for top- about its feasibility.) Short of that, he said he favored secret discussions. This time Reagan and Bush heard a only research, not phased deployment of the land-based briefing by Lowell Wood of Livermore National Labora- and space-based parts of SDI. "Premature deployment tory and Edward Teller, the father of the hydrogen of something that isn't totally effective would do noth- bomb. The subject was a research breakthrough in the ing but cause the Soviets to break out of the ABM Treaty Strategic Defense Initiative, or Star Wars. Teller and overwhelm what we've got." Kemp pledged to build brought a mock-up of "Brilliant Pebbles," a new anti- and deploy SDI. "It's not that simple, Jack," Bush missile system. It consists of several thousand small snapped. He suggested SDI could be bargained away interceptors that would fly in low orbit in space. They for a new arms control treaty. "I want to reach out for would, Teller said, spot Soviet or other missiles as they peace and, I'm sorry, I think it's good to be doing that." burst through the clouds in the boost phase, smash into At the Republican convention in New Orleans, Bush them at high speed, and destroy them. Reagan loved it. gave SDI a low priority. His aides even sought, but Bush asked question after question. He was, said an aide failed. to soften the platform's strong endorsement of who accompanied him to the briefing, extremely im- "rapid and certain deployment." Earlier, in Chicago on pressed with the answers. August 2, he said, "I am committed to deployment of SDI isn't dead yet. True, it has lost its most fervent SDI, as soon as feasible, and will determine the exact champion, Reagan, and accumulated other troubles. architecture of the system in my first term, as the tech- Money is a big one. In his last budget, Reagan asked for nologies are tested and proven. As president, I will not $5.6 billion for SDI in 1990. President Bush is certain to leave America defenseless against ballistic missiles." scale that back, but he'll be lucky to get much more than That meant he favored at least some strategic defense. $4 billion from Congress in any case. At the Pentagon, But then in an interview with Gerald Boyd of the New the service chiefs are as fond of SDI as they are of peace York Times on August 25, he pulled back from deploy- protests. Even at the White House, there are SDI skep- ment, saying that would depend on cost and research. tics, notably Brent Scowcroft, the national security ad- At the White House, the crucial figure besides Bush in viser, and Arnold Kanter, the arms control expert on the plotting SDI's future is Scowcroft. His skepticism about NSC staff. But SDI has supporters in the administration, SDI is profound. But he's a skeptic, not a foe of SDI in all too, particularly Vice President Dan Quayle and John configurations. His main objection to Reagan's vision Sununu, the White House chief of staff. And now there's was not that it wouldn't work, but that it would weaken Dick Cheney, the new defense secretary. He backs SDI deterrence and drain funds from other military pro- wholeheartedly and views Brilliant Pebbles as a signifi- grams. In a report he and James Woolsey wrote last fall, cant breakthrough that should be pursued. he warned that the astrodome "if pursued seriously Bush has never been SDI's noisiest advocate, but he's would clearly be the major defense initiative, perhaps grown more favorable. When Reagan first renounced the major governmental initiative, of the new adminis- the concept of mutual assured destruction in March tration-in practice forestalling many other courses of 1983 and called for rapid development of a missile de- action in Defense and otherwise." He wasn't for that. fense system in space, Bush was lukewarm. He went But in interviews, he's spoken favorably of a limited, along for two reasons. Reagan favored it. And Bush ground-based missile defense, and he's said Bush likes figured it would give the United States "a helluva lot this approach, too. more leverage" in arms control talks with the Soviets, an Scowcroft's choice as arms control expert on his staff, aide said. What he never bought was Reagan's concept Kanter, isn't even for this. In a paper published last A 1 September, Kanter said any plan to deploy land-based or space-based defense in the 1990s "should be put. on the shelf." According to Kanter, "the weight of argu- ment is against a commitment to early deployment." Rather, the Bush administration should carry on an SDI research and development program at $2 billion to $3 billion a year. This may not fly with Bush, however, since it's what Michael Dukakis proposed in the campaign. Two things happened in 1988 to make Bush more comfortable with SDI. First, word came from then- Defense Secretary Frank Carlucci and Abrahamson that the Reagan astrodome scheme was a dream. The goal in Star Wars-and indeed the position of SDI support- ers-quickly changed from a perfect defense to one that would knock out enough missiles to shake Soviet confi- dence in attacking in the first place. Second. the idea of Brilliant Pebbles arrived. Not only was Bush impressed, but so was Scowcroft when he was briefed on the sub- ject. William Graham, the White House science adviser. practically gushes. Brilliant Pebbles "addresses the problems of cost, weight, and survivability in a direct and simple manner," he says. In his final report in February as SDI chief, Abraham- son called Brilliant Pebbles an "opportunity for both improved performance and dramatic cost reduction." Its feasibility could be proved in two years, maybe as early as this spring. Deployment would follow in three years, he said. "This could be accomplished for less than $10 billion." When a new command and control capability is added, "the total research, development, and deployment cost" is $25 billion. much less than initially envisioned for a space-based system. In fact. Abrahamson said, it would cost "substantially less" than making MX missiles mobile and deploying a new single- warhead missile called Midgetman, a plan favored by Larry Welch, the Air Force chief of staff, and Represen- tative Les Aspin, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. hree days after he arrived at the Pentagon, Che- T ney publicly chastised Welch for concocting an MX-Midgetman deal while the Bush administra- tion is undergoing a review of defense and na- tional security issues. He didn't denounce the deal itself. but in fact he looks askance at it. Cheney is a longtime backer of MX and SDI. One of his first acts as defense secretary was to get a fresh briefing on SDI, including Brilliant Pebbles. At his initial press conference, he brought up SDI without being asked about it. His friend from the House, Representative Jon Kyl of Arizona, sent him a three-page letter arguing that money for Midget- man would have to come out of SDI funds. In April, Cheney will advise Bush on MX, Midgetman, and SDI. Chances are, Brilliant Pebbles will be high on his agen- da, and Bush will agree. Scowcroft may object, but his able, and "its use of available, largely demonstrated influence won't be enough "to turn Bush around," says technologies would facilitate its development signifi- a senior White House official. cantly It could revolutionize much of our thinking There's another sign that SDI is alive at the Bush about strategic defense." He said the Bush administra- White House. In a speech on March 23, Quayle leaped tion is committed to SDI deployment. For days before on the Brilliant Pebbles bandwagon. "Its small size- Quayle's speech, the text circulated at the White House. less than 100 pounds fully fueled, barely a meter in Neither Scowcroft nor Kanter asked Quayle to restrain length-adapts it to low-cost launch capability and sim- his enthusiasm for SDI or Brilliant Pebbles. Maybe they plifies the survivability problem," he said. It's afford- knew something. A 2 WASHINGTON TIMES 18 APRIL 1989 Pg. 6 Bush reportedly drops NSC Latin nominee "Jones is a liberal Democrat - if he's not registered, he is one," said a By Peter LaBarbera ble to contemplate." GOP Latin specialist Friday; when THE WASHINGTON TIMES A GOP Senate aide voiced a senti- the nomination appeared more cer- ment shared by others when he said: tain. "This is a kick in the face to President Bush nominated a ca- "We're starting to wonder who won Republicans and people who sup- reer diplomat to head Latin Amer- this election." ported Bush." ican operations at the National Secu- Mr. Jones is currently deputy "They should put a conservative rity Council yesterday but withdrew chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in there or at least a known Re- the nomination under fire from con- in Chile. Prior to that, he held the publican," said another expert with servative Republicans, according to same position in Costa Rica. long experience in the region. "To .GOP sources close to the NSC. Reached in Chile yesterday after- name Jones to this position is to com- The nomination of George Jones, noon, he refused to comment. State plicate the life of Bernie Aronson a veteran foreign service officer, Department officials said he visited and the administration." provoked outrage among Republi- Washington last week. can Latin America specialists. Mr. The GOP Latin specialists con- One State official defended Mr. Jones has been accused of having veyed their concerns to senior for- Jones yesterday. "I would say worked as a "liberal activist" to un- eign policy officials in the admin- George Jones fits very much in line istration over the weekend, GOP dermine Reagan administration with the pragmatic, results-oriented sources said. Among those report- policies in Central America. approach of the Bush-[Secretary of The president's nomination of Mr. edly contacted was deputy National State James] Baker foreign policy Jones was confirmed by an adminis- Security Advisor Robert Gates. team," he said. tration official, but the reported The official dismissed much of Constantine Menges, who held withdrawal could not be confirmed. the criticism of Mr. Jones as coming the chief Latin American advisory The party's Latin specialists had from the "ideological side of the Re- position at NSC under President hoped a member of their own ranks publican Party." His critics, he said, Reagan, said, "When a Republican is would be chosen to fill the NSC posi- were upset at his role in carrying out elected president by the American tion as a counterweight to Bernard a Chile policy that tilted in recent people, he needs to appoint Republi- Aronson, a Democrat picked to head years toward vocal support for lib- can foreign policy experts at key Latin American affairs at the State eral opposition parties seeking to jobs at the NSC in order to make sure Department. end the military rule of President he is in charge of foreign policy." "This guy represents everything Augusto Pinochet. Several Republicans said Mr. that would have been wrong in a But Republican Latin experts, Jones had employed "back channel" Democratic administration in Cen- most of whom were not willing to methods to discredit conservative tral America," said one Republican speak on record, said the move was Reagan officials in Latin America - who worked with Mr. Jones. "To have another sign that Mr. Bush is aban- including former United Nations him pop up as the administration's doning Mr. Reagan's approach to Ambassador Jeahe Kirkpatrick and knowledgeable alternative liberal Latin America and ignoring candi- Curtin Winsor, who served as U.S. Democrat to Aronson, an unknowl- dates from his own party to run pol- Ambassador to Costa Rica before be- edgeable liberal Democrat, is horri- icv in the hemisphere. ing ousted after polical infighting. 17 Cheney Urges man, Cheney essentially embraced Cheney "looked first at the strate- the views of the Reagan adminis- gic necessity [for the Midgetman tration, which last year directed the and MX], next at the budget reality Bush to Back program's termination by Oct. 1. and only later at the [missiles' rel- But his position set the stage for ative] political popularity." a possible battle with some of Until Welch's recent expression MX Rail Plan Bush's close advisers, such as na- of support for deploying both mis- tional security adviser Brent Scow- siles, the Air Force backed only the croft, who have strongly supported MX railroad plan as the least expen- the Midgetman. sive method of obtaining missile Midgetman Favored Rep. Les Aspin (D-Wis.) and Sen. mobility, an attribute the service's Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), the respective top leadership feels is largely un- By Hill Is Rejected chairmen of the House and Senate necessary to deter a Soviet attack. Armed Services committees, have Consequently, it has been reluctant also supported the Midgetman, and to trim aircraft development and By R. Jeffrey Smith threatened to insist on its retention other traditional programs to fund Washington Post Staff Writer in the defense budget bill. the Midgetman. Secretary of Defense Richard B. During the presidential campaign Some officials speculated yester- Cheney has told President Bush he last fall, Bush said that modernization day that if Cheney's approach is favors removing the nation's 50 of the land-based missile force was adopted, the Bush administration one of his top priorities and that "the could confidently rely on Congress new MX nuclear missiles from silos and placing them on railroad cars to real choice now is to find a possible to perform the politically difficult be shuttled around the countryside mix between the two [missiles]." task of cutting other programs to in a superpower crisis, senior U.S. Gen. Larry D. Welch, the Air fund the Midgetman. Force chief of staff, last month also The SDI ballistic missile defense officials said yesterday. embraced a plan to deploy nuclear program, funded at roughly $4 bil- Cheney has also told Bush he does not advise spending additional missiles aboard both trucks and rail- lion a year, is widely seen as a top candidate for such cuts, despite its funds now to develop and deploy on road cars, but was publicly rebuked trucks a smaller strategic missile, continuing popularity among con- by Cheney for "free-lancing." servatives. The Joint Chiefs of Staff the so-called Midgetman, a scheme A senior Defense Department of- have recommended continuing "ro- with substantial support on Capitol ficial, speaking on condition that he bust research" on SDI, the least Hill, the officials said. not be identified, explained Cheney's expensive of seven alternative op- Cheney met with Bush and senior decision by saying that "those who tions, the officials said. national security advisers yesterday claimed both missiles could be pur- to discuss the two land-based mis- sued as a reasonable compromise siles and the Defense Department's just had not looked at the cost." Strategic Defense Initiative before The Air Force has said deploy- departing last night for a two-day ment of 50 of the 10-warhead MX meeting in Brussels with defense missiles aboard railroad cars will cost ministers from other North Atlantic $5.4 billion, while deployment of 500 Treaty Organization members. Bush made no decision at the single-warhead Midgetman missiles aboard trucks will cost $23.55 bil- meeting, a senior official said last lion. Another $10 billion to $15 bil- night. The selection of a deployment lion would be required to staff and plan for U.S. land-based nuclear maintain the missile-bearing trucks missiles has been billed by senior and trains at various military bases. officials and Bush as one of the most Those who favor the single-war- important actions to be taken at the head Midgetman over the multiple- outset of his presidency. warhead MX, including many con- Up to $40 billion in Defense De- gressional Democrats, reason that partment expenditures during the its deployment would diminish So- next decade or so are at stake, and viet interest in a preemptive attack, Bush has said a national consensus since the Soviets would theoretical- on the issue is crucial to completion ly have to expend at least two war- of a new strategic arms treaty with heads to be sure of destroying each the Soviet Union. U.S. Midgetman warhead. The Bush administration is The officials said Cheney appar- scheduled to reveal its amendments ently considered, but rejected, trim- to the Reagan defense budget, in- ming the Midgetman costs by plac- cluding its decision on the land- ing two warheads atop each missile, based missiles, on Monday when and deploying half as many. Aspin Cheney appears before Congress. and other Midgetman advocates Bush must trim $10 billion from have said this is acceptable, because planned military expenditures to the missiles' mobility would still meet spending targets. make them unattractive targets. By declining to support funding The senior defense official said toward deployment of the Midget- WASHINGTON POST, 4/19/89, p. AI WALL STREET JOURNAL 21 APRIL 89 Pg. 2 Bush Pledges Full Cooperation in Probe Of White House Papers on Iran, Contras By GERALD F. SEIB Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Council meeting a few days ago, Mr. WASHINGTON - President Bush Cheney indicated he preferred a rail-car- pledged "full cooperation" with lawmakers ried version of the existing MX missile, a investigating whether White House docu- less costly option than building the new ments were withheld from the Iran-Contra Midgetman system. But National Security committee during the Reagan administra- Adviser Brent Scowcroft is a longtime pro- tion, but his vague commitment won't end ponent of the Midgetman, and the senior the controversy. official said the administration is debating The president said guidelines for turn- whether there is sufficient money in the ing over documents had been worked out budget to buy a combination of the two by the Reagan administration and Con- missiles. gress, and added: "I would see that if any The controversy over Iran-Contra docu- documents are in control of this adminis- ments arose when lawmakers who were on tration, relevant documents, that we would the congressional committee that investi- live assiduously by those guidelines." gated the scandal voiced concerns that the But Mr. Bush questioned whether docu- panel may not have been given access to ments actually were withheld, and other documents that later surfaced in the North White House officials said that relevant trial. The documents dealt in part with the documents now are controlled by the Fed- roles played by Messrs. Bush and Reagan. eral Bureau of Investigation and archivists and with the possibility the White House rather than by the Bush White House. knowingly violated congressional bans on In a question-and-answer session with a Contra aid, congressional investigators as- group of reporters, Mr. Bush declined to sert. talk in any detail about his own role in the White House officials maintain that the Iran-Contra affair, saying he didn't want to thousands of pages of documents related to interfere with jury deliberations in the the affair were handled by the FBI. They trial of former White House aide Oliver say the bureau was given the responsibility North. But Mr. Bush seemed to pledge to of searching the documents and determin- talk more openly about his role at the con- ing whether they were relevant to requests clusion of the trial. for information from the Iran-Contra com- "I might have something to say on it mittee and the independent counsel, who when the trial is over," Mr. Bush said. But conducted a separate investigation. And he asserted "my conscience is clear" when they suggest that any failure to turn over asked about a document released at the documents was the result of confusion by trial indicating that, as vice president, he the FBI or a failure by committee investi- served as an emissary promising Hondu- gators to properly define documents they ras expedited U.S. aid in return for that wanted. country's military support of the Contras. Committee staff members. however, as- At the time, Congress prohibited U.S. aid sert that they asked the White House for to the Nicaraguan rebels. direct access to the documents, but were On another issue, Mr. Bush said he refused. hasn't yet decided whether to build the mo- bile MX strategic missile or the smaller Midgetman missile. The choice is one of the biggest defense issues Mr. Bush faces, and he said he will be "prepared very soon to make a decision on it." A senior White House aide said Defense Secretary Dick Cheney hasn't yet made a formal recommendation on the missile LONDON FINANCIAL TIMES 21 APRIL 1989 Pg. 10 President heads for missile row By Lionel Barber in Washington A Republican supporter said: A COLLISION with powerful arguing that the missiles can "Dick Cheney is saying there is Congressional Democrats is be hidden easily and so offer nothing inherently wrong with Midgetman, but this will be the near for President George Bush opportunities to cheat on arms control treaties. fifth consecutive year of nega- over the issue of modernising tive real growth in the defence US strategic forces. This week, Mr Richard Che- budget. We are already cutting The Defence Department, cit- ney, Defence Secretary, urged tanks, helicopters, and F-15 ing cost concerns, has recom- Mr Bush to authorise removing fighters - so we just cannot mended deploying only one the existing MX nuclear mis- afford another mobile missile." mobile nuclear missile, the siles from their silos and If Mr Bush sides with Mr multi-warhead MX, and drop- deploying them on railway Cheney, he faces opposition ping the Democrats' favourite, trucks that could be shuttled from two of the most powerful the single-warhead Midgetman. around in a time of crisis. The Democrats in Congress: Sena- cost is estimated at $5.4bn. tor Sam Nunn of Georgia, the Mr Bush said yesterday he The Pentagon estimates Armed Services Committee was close to a final decision on Midgetman would cost $25bn, a chairman, and Mr Les Aspin, the mobile missile issue, which figure which some suspect is House Armed Services Com- has put the White House and inflated by the US Air Force mittee head. Both favour the Congress at loggerheads for which backs the MX missile. A Midgetman which they believe more than 10 years. cheaper solution - to put two is far less vulnerable to a Mr Bush's MX decision will warheads on each Midgetman Soviet strike. Mr Brent Scow- affect the US negotiating posi- missile - appears to have been croft, Mr Bush's national secu- tion in the strategic arms talks ruled out. rity adviser, holds this view with the Soviet Union - soon Mr Cheney has argued that but Mr Cheney has calculated to resume. Washington pro- the US cannot afford the lux- that he will remain a broker poses banning all mobile inter- ury of both the MX and Midg- rather an advocate in' the continental ballistic missiles, etman. inter-agency debate. The Washington Post Cutback Seen in Bush The New York Times The Washington Times The Wall Street Journal Request for 'Star Wars' The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News USA Today By JOHN M. BRODER and MELISSA HEALY, Times Staff Writers The Chicago Tribune L.A. TIMES p.l P+I WASHINGTON-I President on flatbed rail cars would cost $5.4 Date 22 APR 1989 Bush will ask Congress for about billion, according to the Air Force. $4.7 billion for the "Star Wars" "Star Wars" funding and the anti-missile program next year, The national security adviser substantially less than the $5.9 choice between the MX and Midg- spoke up forcefully in favor of the etman have been among the most billion President Ronald Reagan Midgetman in a White House requested in his final budget but contentious weapons issues facing the government in recent years. meeting on Tuesday. Cheney pres- more than most congressional ented the Defense Department Reagan, over the objections of Democrats have been willing to view that the country did not need Democrats on Capitol Hill, advo- spend, sources said Friday. the small missile and could not cated aggressive development of afford it. Bush's proposal would accelerate space weapons. work on ground-based systems of "We have seen an opening gam- The missile issue has congres- rocket interceptors and continue sional Democrats, who favor the bit," one Defense Department offi- research on more futuristic space- Midgetman, on one side and the cial said of Cheney's initial MX-on- based weapons, but at a reduced White House and the Air Force, ly recommendation to the pace from that recommended by- which are pushing the big MX President. "We have not seen the Reagan. The current budget con- final move." missile, on the other. Congressional tains $3.9 billion for "Star Wars," leaders have threatened to kill the Cheney himself acknowledged formally known as the Strategic, rail-borne MX if funds for the the possibility that his view would Defense Initiative, or SDI. smaller missile are deleted. not prevail when he said Tuesday: A key component of the Bush "It may be we come up with some "Star Wars" proposal would be Avoided Contra Fight kind of mix out of the options that development of a weapon known as Bush's approach to both contro- have been provided." "brilliant pebbles," swarms of versies parallels his strategy on Also on Friday, Cheney met with small space-based interceptors de- another point of friction with Con- the chairmen and ranking mem- bers of the House and Senate signed to knock out Soviet ballistic gress-support for the Nicaraguan missiles headed toward the United rebels. He avoided a bruising fight Armed Services committees and on the Contras early in his Admin- defense appropriations subcommit- States. Because of budget constraints, istration by cutting a deal with tees to discuss the missile question congressional leaders before an- and his budget priorities. Among however, the entire "Star Wars" program will be pushed back about nouncing a formal policy. the congressional leaders were two years, officials said. The earli- One Administration official, a staunch Midgetman advocates, in- est. possible deployment of any strong MX advocate, called the cluding Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), proposed missile compromise "pre- Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and components-probably ground- emptive surrender." He com- Rep. Les Aspin (D-Wis.). based-is now set for sometime plained that such deals only em- None of the participants would after the year 2000, they said. bolden congressional Democrats to comment on the session. Officials On another major weapons ques- meddle in executive branch deci- familiar with the meeting said that tion, Defense Secretary Dick Che- sion-making. Cheney had sounded out the law- ney is struggling to craft a political Cheney met with Bush and Na- makers on a possible compromise deal with congressional leaders on which of two land-based nuclear tional Security Adviser Brent on the missile issue but, did not Scowcroft Friday to discuss a plan commit the Administration to missiles to build, the 10-warhead to keep both missiles alive. funding the Midgetman. MX transported on rail cars or the A possible compromise that was single-warhead Midgetman carried Aide Favors Small Missiles on trucks. Sources said Friday that the Scowcroft has long supported Administration is likely to ask for small mobile missiles because they present an unattractive target for CONTINUED immediate deployment of the MX the Soviet military, which would on rail cars and, in a compromise first have to find them and then with congressional Democrats, to expend a large number of warheads seek funds to continue develop- to destroy them. He was chairman ing-but not to deploy-the Midg- of a 1983 commission that urged etman. building a mobile single-warhead Cheney had recommended to missile as a means of ensuring the Bush that Midgetman be killed survivability of the nation's land- because of its $24-billion price. based missile force. Pulling the existing 50 MX missiles from their silos and placing them Page 16. 2 discussed would be to take about $300 million of the savings from the "Star Wars" cutback and apply it to continued work on the Midgetman, sources said. The program could be kept alive at that funding level for several years, with the cost rising later if the government decided to deploy the missiles, Pentagon offi- cials said. Rising Costs Cited But defense experts warned that stretching out weapons programs increases their cost and often pro- duces weapons that are obsolete by the time they are fielded. The Air Force has warned that a decision will have to be made immediately if the Midgetman is to be deployed by the mid-1990s. Sen. J. James Exon (D-Neb.) said that a compromise linking a rail-mobile MX with a limited Midgetman development program "would be unbeatable I think he could win with this. But, if Bush does not bend, he said, congressional partisans of the Midgetman are likely to override him and retaliate against the rail- garrison program. 17. 39 OFFICIALS SAY BUSH Setback for Cheney ate after a surprise nuclear attack. The decision to go ahead with both Midgetman supporters aruged that weapons programs runs counter to the putting Mr. Cheney's recommendation advice of Mr. Cheney, who had recom- to put MX missiles on rail cars was not WILL BACK A FORCE mended that Mr. Bush cancel the Midg- sufficient. This is because the United States would need to have several etman program, which he said was too hours of warning so that it could effec- expensive. He advised instead that the OF MOBILE MISSILES tively disperse the rail cars. United States move its MX missiles In addition, Midgetman supporters from silos onto rail cars, which would argue, that dispering the rail cars in a be far less costly. crisis could alarm the Soviets and fur- The decision to proceed with both ther inflame tensions. MAJOR SECURITY DECISION programs comes at a time when the But supporters of Mr. Cheney's view, Pentagon is cutting its spending plans argued that the United States would for many weapon systems. likely have advance intelligence warn- The Administration is expected to ings of a possible attack. They also President Backs Spending on announce its position on new land- noted the United States keeps strategic based missiles next week when Mr. submarines at sea to guard against the Multi-Warhead MX and risk of surprise attack and expressed Cheney submits the Administration's concern over the high cost of the Midg- military budget to Congress. etman. Smaller Midgetman Concern in Congress The Air Force has estimated that it would cost more than $20 billion to de- Under the Administration's plans, velop a force of 500 Midgetman mis- the United States force of 50 MX mis- By MICHAEL R. GORDON siles. This does not include the cost of siles will be taken out of their silos and Special to The New York Times maintaining and operating missiles. put on rail cars, officials said tonight. WASHINGTON, April 21 - Presi- The United States will also continue Backing of State Dept. dent Bush has decided to proceed with with the development of a force of The State Department had favored the development of a mixed force of Midgetman missiles. deploying a mixed force of MX mis- mobile land-based missiles, Adminis- Administration officials would not siles on rail cars and Midgetman mis- tration officials said today. provide some specific details of Mr. siles, arguing that it would improve The force would consist of 10-war- Bush's decision, such as the cost of the strategic stability and help the Admin- head MX missiles on mobile rail cars, istration develop a consensus on land- program and the exact number of instead of silos where they are now based missiles with the Congress. This, Midgetman missiles that might ulti- in turn, could improve the prospects based. The Administration will also mately be deployed. Final decisions on for ratification of a new strategic arms proceed with the development of a deployment do not have to be made agreement, smaller truck-borne missile, the Midg- until development of the missile is Air Force Chief of Staff, Gen. Larry etman, which can carry one or two completed. Some Pentagon officials D. Welch, discussed a compromise plan warheads. suggested that the United States might with Congressional leaders last month The decision on land-based missiles eventually decide not to follow that called for taking 50 MX missiles was one of the most important national throught with the program. out of silos and putting them on rail security decisions before the Bush Ad- cars. The United States would also de- The Administration decision to pro- ministration, and it is likely to be fur- ploy a force of 300 Midgetman missiles ceed with a mixed force of MX missiles ther debated in Congress before final on truck-like vehicles under the plan and Midgetman missiles follows strong discussed by General Welch. budgetary decisions are approved. Congressional concerns over Mr. Mr. Bush's decision followed intense Question of Risk Cheney's recommendation to cancel the Midgetman program. high-level deliberations throughout the Driving the debate, which has been day. Senator Sam Nunn, the chairman of argued since the Carter Administra- the Senate Armed Services Committee, Mr. Bush met in the morning with tion, has been concern over the vulner- warned the Administration that Mr. Mr. Cheney; Secretary of State Baker; ability of American land-based mis- Cheney's recommendation would be a Mr. Scowcroft and John H. Sununu, the siles, housed in concrete silos, to Soviet "hard sell" in the Congress. And Rep- White House Chief of Staff. attack. resentative Les Aspin, the chairman of Mr. Bush and these senior officials Proponents of mobile missiles say the House Armed Services Committee continued their deliberations in the af- they would be less vulnerable to a issued a similar warning. ternoon. Soviet attack. Both systems of mobile Supporters of the Midgetman mis- Then Mr. Cheney returned to the missiles have supporters, and Mr. sile, which would be mounted on a White House in the late afternoon Bush's proposal appears in part to be a truck-like vehicle, argued that the where he met again with Mr. Scowcroft political compromise. weapon was needed to help improve and Mr. Sununu. the United States's capability to retali- Mr. Bush's position was disclosed after he met this afternoon to discuss the issue with top aides, including Sec- retary of State James A. Baker 3d, De- fense Secretary Dick Cheney and the White House national security adviser, Brent Scowcroft. Mr. Scowcroft was a strong public advocate of the Midget- man program, before he took office. NEW YORK TIMES, 4/22/89, p. 1 Quayle in the Spotlight: A New Model for No. 2 By MAUREEN DOWD NYT 4-24 A14 Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, April 23 - After last agreements on policy, he said in a re- November's election, Dan Quayle cent interview, adding that his only started shopping at Arthur Adler's, latitude was in emphasis. George Bush's favorite men's store, for Mr. Quayle's approach cuts two a tuxedo and some conservative suits. ways. On the one hand, he is emerging He began describing himself in inter- as a No. 2 with his own personality. At views as a spontaneous sort of person the same time, the spotlight throws his who liked to add off-the-cuff events to strengths and weaknesses into relief. his schedule. The Vice President is shoring up his He even took to parroting some of knowledge of foreign policy issues and Mr. Bush's trademark phrases, like has surrounded himself with a staff "That's history" and, at the beginning that many inside and outside the White of a response to a question, "Let me House describe as solid. In public help you with that." speeches, Mr. Quayle can be forceful at But as Vice President Quayle pre- times and at other times he seems pares to depart Monday on his second timid and hesitant, especially when he big foreign trip, a 12-day tour of Aus- deviates from the prepared text. tralia, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thai- Preference for Visibility land, he is doing more than following what Republicans fondly call "the The Vice President operates with a George Bush playbook." higher level of visibility than Mr. Bush Instead, as Mr. Quayle shapes his did, which puts him in a position to persona and is shaped by a cadre of rebut the campaign criticism that he lacked Presidential timbre and had a policy and political experts around him, he is creating "the Quayle model" pattern of using his golden-boy charm and family influence to cut corners. been able to comfort Mr. Quayle about of the office. If Mr. Quayle does well, Mr. Bush the bad publicity by telling him this: A Different No. 1-No. 2 Chemistry can appease conservative groups and "If you take any bad story written Working for President Reagan, Mr. better justify a selection that continues about you and erase in your mind the Bush was a silent, subservient Vice to be a widely debated mystery in name Dan Quayle and go back one year Democratic and Republican circles. and put my name in there, it would President. A former rival to his chief, "Bush knew he owed Quayle some read the same. That's exactly the kind Mr. Bush showed his loyalty by staying rehabilitation because after he was se- of treatment I was getting when I first in the background and never speaking entered the Presidential campaign." out about things on which he differed The President and Vice President from his boss. In his own White House, lunch together once a week, usually on Mr. Bush is encouraging a different Thursdays. They meet every morning chemistry with the man who has taken his place. Higher visibility, in a briefing with the national security adviser, Brent Scowcroft, and the Mr. Quayle's stronger, more conser- vative rhetoric in speeches on such unlike Bush White House chief of staff, John H. Sununu, and in a second meeting with subjects as human rights, the Soviet Mr. Sununu on the day's agenda. Union, Central America and the "im- under Reagan. Mr. Quayle has sought friendships perial" Congress adds a dash of cay- with mentors, as he has throughout his enne to the Administration's bland cau- career. He has become friendly with tion. And, the Vice President has also lected, with reporters in a frenzy, the Mr. Sununu, who seeks out the Vice emerged as the most vocal defender of Israel in the Administration's inner Bush organization clamped down and President for his opinion on how for- circle. took away the tools that got Quayle to mer Congressional colleagues of Mr. "Quayle brings a bit of an ideological the Senate - his ability to communi- Quayle's are leaning on White House cate and talk to people directly," said a initiatives, and with Richard G. Dar- edge that Bush appreciates and knows White House official. man, the director of the Office of Man- is good for him," said a White House of- The official was recalling the Bush agement and Budget. ficial. Mr. Bush, who likes colloquies and Mr. Quayle seems to have gone a campaign's effort to silence Mr. step too far in comments after the Sen- Quayle in the face of cascading disclo- consensus governing, encourages Mr. ate defeat of John G. Tower's nomina- sures at the Republican convention Quayle to attend the Presidential staff's domestic and economic policy tion for Defense Secretary. He accused that Mr. Quayle had used family influ- the Democrats of McCarthyite tactics ence to get into the National Guard dur- planning meetings and to attend strat- egy sessions in the Oval Office. even as Mr. Bush was reaching out a ing the Vietnam War and to get into "I have the right to go into his office conciliatory hand. Mr. Bush distanced law school despite mediocre grades. any time I want to," Mr. Quayle told a himself from that speech, and Quayle Why did Mr. Bush select the two- gathering of newspaper editors recent- aides conceded afterward that a failure term Indiana Senator? Even Mr. ly. "I can have a one-on-one meeting in communications between the two of- Quayle said that Mr. Bush has never any time." fices had left the Vice President out on fully explained it to him. The Vice In the interview in his office, the Vice a rhetorical ledge. President, with a mock shiver at the President went further. "I had hoped Mr. Quayle pulled his head in as thought of finding out, said over a for there to be a genuiness and close- swiftly as a snapping turtle. While he chicken salad lunch in his ornate office ness extended to me, but the warmness said the Vice President can utter that he believed he was chosen for his and the warmth is more than perhaps I things that the President cannot, he political views and added that he was had anticipated," he said. said he does not want to be viewed by just grateful to be there. "He treats us as family, as part of Republicans as a showboat or a fire- Sheila Tate, Mr. Bush's former press the extended Bush family," Mr. Quayle brand. secretary, said recently that he told said, adding with a grin, "That's a "There's no wiggle room" for her at a White House dinner that he had rather large family, of course." WASHINGTON TIMES Mrs. Thatcher, West Germany's Bonn's flip-flop leaders were meeting at about the same time in what was reportedly a stormy session that led to a near break-up of the three-party govern- threatens NATO ing coalition. News of the meeting leaked Friday afternoon, nearly a week before Chancellor Kohl was scheduled to announce Bonn's new position. By James Morrison THE WASHINGTON TIMES They have been seeking Bonn's Mr. Kohl, whose Christian Demo- agreement to replacement of 88 crats had opposed talks on short- LONDON West Germany has Lance missiles based in West Ger- range missiles, apparently was underlined deep divisions in the many as the short-range weapons, forced to reverse himself in order to Western military alliance as Bonn's developed in the 1960s, approach the prevent a walkout by one of his coali- foreign and defense ministers meet end of their useful life. tion partners, the Free Democrats, with President Bush in Washington led by Foreign Minister Hans- today and as Brit- However, many West Germans, Dietrich Genscher. ish Prime Min- whose country has served as NATO's NEWS ister Margaret main staging area and training Polls and recent local elections ANALYSIS Thatcher girds ground for 40 years, feel the threat show Mr. Kohl's popularity is declin- for a showdown of war in Europe is dwindling. ing and his chances of winning re- with Chancellor Helmut Kohl next election next year are uncertain. On Thursday, defense ministers of week. Some observers predict a possible NATO's Nuclear Planning Group, new coalition between the Free Mr. Kohl's governing coalition re- meeting in Brussels, Belgium, Democrats and the anti-NATO versed on Friday a position taken agreed to endorse the existing Greens which could capitalize on less than 24 hours earlier and de- NATO pósition that says the missiles growing anti-nuclear sentiment in cided to call for talks with the Soviet "must be kept up to date where nec- West Germany, where Soviet Pres- Union on the possible elimination of essary." The statement was seen as ident Mikhail Gorbachev's so-called short-range nuclear missiles. papering over NATO disagreements "charm" offensive has had its great- before next month's summit of the The North Atlantic Treaty Orga- est success. nization allies officially oppose such leaders of the 16 allies, at which the Bush administration seeks a firm A British Defense Ministry offi- talks unless they follow agreement decision on modernization of the cial was quoted here as describing on cutting the Soviet Union's superi- missiles. the shift in the German position as ority in tanks, planes and other con- an "unqualified triumph for Gorba- ventional armed forces and chem- Mr. Cheney expressed what has chev's policy of courting West Ger- ical weapons. now become premature satisfaction man public opinion with the aim of Last week, U.S. Defense Secretary with keeping West Germany in line splitting the allies on key policy." Richard Cheney rejected an April 12 with the NATO position. Mr. Genscher and the new de- Warsaw Pact proposal to open nego- "I was pleased to reach as much fense minister, Gerhard Stoltenberg, tiations to eliminate short-range of an agreement as we did," he told are to meet Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney, missiles. reporters on the flight back to Wash- National Security Adviser Brent London and Washington consider ington. Scowcroft and Secretary of State the short-range missiles a deterrent James Baker III. But unknown to Mr. Cheney and to all-out war with the Soviet Union. The announcement of their trip followed what was described as an "intensive" telephone conversation between Mr. Kohl and President Bush on Friday. Mrs. Thatcher's aides said over the weekend that she will fly to West Germany next Sunday to confront Mr. Kohl over the U-turn. She is expected to argue strongly that early negotiations on short- range missiles will undermine NATO's chances of securing cuts in Soviet conventional and chemical forces. In the United States yesterday, Mr. Cheney re-stated Washington's oppo- sition to negotiating a reduction or elimination of short-range nuclear weapons in an appearance on NBC Television's "Meet the Press." "We need to have the capacity for flexible response," he said. "Nuclear weapons have been the main offset to overwhelming Soviet conven- tional supriority for 40 years in Eu- rope. "The Soviets have always wanted to denuclearize Europe. That's still their goal and objective. And if we embark now on short-range nuclear force negotiations, there's a very real danger we'd end up in that posi- tion." -47- Future of Euromissiles splits U.S., W. Germany By Thomas J. Breen Baker left no doubt that the two warned against engaging in new nu- and Peter Almond sides failed to agree. clear talks with the Soviets. THE WASHINGTON TIMES "They [the West Germans] ex- State Department spokeswoman plained their positions, [and] we ex- Margaret Tutwiler said at a noon The United States and West Ger- plained ours," Mr. Baker said. "As a press briefing, "We think it would be many failed to reach agreement yes- result, we understand their position a mistake to engage in arms control terday after more than five hours of better, and they understand ours bet- negotiations on SNF [short-range tough negotiations on whether to ter. We will continue our discussions nuclear forces]." modernize short-range nuclear in an effort to reach an agreement Mr. Cheney was even more ada- weapons in Europe or negotiate with within the alliance." mant. calling such talks a "serious the Soviet Union to scrap them. mistake." The brevity and terseness of Mr. The failure to end the split be- In a midday speech at Fort Baker's statement "is a clear indica- tween major NATO allies threatens McNair, he said "there have been tion that things went very badly," one to disrupt an upcoming summit of calls for negotiations with Moscow foreign diplomat said late yesterday. Western alliance leaders scheduled over a third zero option. We must not in Brussels, Belgium, next month. But a spokesman for the West fall into this dangerous trap. One of German Embassy said that Mr. the Kremlin's primary goals re- In a brief three-page statement Genscher, who left Washington for mains the denuclearization of Eu- after a meeting among Secretary of home last night, "felt encouraged by rope. Given this goal, and the peril- State James A. Baker III, Defense the intense discussion." Mr. Gen- ous circumstances that could follow Secretary Richard Cheney and Na- scher and Defense Minister Stolten- in its train if it is achieved, the alli- tional Security Adviser Brent Scow- berg are scheduled to meet this ance [NATO] must maintain the will croft and West German Foreign morning in Bonn with Chancellor to resist the call for a third zero." Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher Helmut Kohl. A triple zero option is arms con- and Defense Minister Gerhard Stol- In almost identical terms, both the trol jargon for elimination of strate- tenberg at the State Department, Mr. State and Defense departments gic, intermediate and short-range missiles from Europe. Mr. Bush yesterday said that Mr. The official position of NATO has German public expressing its in- Kohl "knows my view that there creasing opposition to moderniza- long been that some nuclear deter- must not be any unilateral fait ac- tion and growing desire to negotiate. rent is indispensable to offset the compli here." huge Soviet advantage in men and The issue seemed at least papered manpower in Europe their own After the weekend phone talk with over last Thursday in Brussels when home court. Mr. Bush. Mr. Kohl dispatched Mr. NATO's Nuclear Planning Group is- Genscher and Mr. Stoltenberg to sued a statement saying the missiles On Friday, however, the Germans Washington. Mr. Bush, who traveled should be "kept up to date where dropped a bombshell, calling for yesterday to Norfolk for the memo- necessary" but said nothing about talks with the Soviets aimed at the rial ceremony for the 47 sailors producing or deploying a new gen- possible elimination of short-range killed on the USS Iowa, was not avail- eration of the weapon. missiles. able to meet with the Germans. "I was pleased to reach as much The U.S. has argued that the mis- The issue of modernization of of an agreement as we did." Mr. siles represent a deterrent to all-out short-range nuclear weapons has di- Cheney told reporters on a flight war in Europe and should be up- vided the alliance seriously since back to Washington from Brussels. dated without entering into discus- February, when Mr. Kohl switched But the issue erupted only a few sions with the Soviets. gears and indicated in an interview hours later when the tripartite Bonn Over the weekend, President that he favored postponement of a government held a stormy meeting Bush talked to the West German decision on modernizing short- that observers said almost led to a chancellor and later to British Prime range missiles until 1991 or 1992. breakup of the coalition. At that Minister Margaret Thatcher to at- point, Mr. Kohl called for talks on The short-range missile, known eliminating the missiles, a conces- tempt to resolve the crisis. The as the Lance, is the backbone of sion to Mr. Genscher's leftist Free phone calls were described by sev- NATO's nuclear arsenal in Europe. eral diplomats as "very, very in- Democrats, who have strongly advo- Eighty-eight of the missiles are posi- tense." cated a conciliatory approach to the tioned in West Germany, with the Soviets. WASHINGTON TIMES, 4/25/89, P.A-7 CLEVELAND PLAIN-DEALER 25 APRIL 1989 Pg. B6 Splitting the difference I weapons policy,Policy,P In weapons policy, Bush has mapped decision on U.S. nuclear have-it-all approach to military spending rushed to buy the latest hardware without a cautious, but promising, two-track strategy. As deciding how to deploy it. part of the new administration's review of secu- Thus the United States is now saddled with rity policy, Bush has recommended deployment the worst of all possible weapons: the fixed-silo of two different land- MX. As a Reagan-era based strategic missile commission headed by systems. But he has sig- Scowcroft (then a naled a major policy retired Air Force gen- change by insisting that eral) realized, the MX is both systems be mobile. a missile without a mis- The decision to build sion: In fixed silos, the the Midgetman missile mammoth MX is just as is an important step vulnerable as its prede- forward, for it may cessor, the Minuteman; reduce U.S. reliance on but it is perceived by the most illogical the Soviet Union as a weapon of the nuclear greater threat to its age: the destabilizing deterrent force. As an MX missile. inviting target for a Splitting the differ- Soviet pre-emptive ence between the two strike, the MX under- missiles-the 10-warhead MX and the one-or mines strategic stability. two-warhead Midgetman-will fully satisfy nei- Scowcroft has the right idea: Eventually the ther side in this arcane strategic' debate. smaller, less vulnerable Midgetman should Although they both recognized the deterrent become the backbone of the U.S. deterrent, and value of having mobile missiles, Defense Secre- the MX should be bargained away in exchange tary Richard Cheney preferred a plan (first for Soviet reductions in the heavy SS-24 mis- advanced by the Carter administration) to base siles. If Mikhail Gorbachev is as sincere as he the MX on railroad cars, while National Secu- claims to be about arms negotiations, an MX rity Adviser Brent Scowcroft (like many tradeoff for the SS-24 could be feasible. detente-minded congressional Democrats) advo- Reviving the rail-mobile MX is regrettable: cated a deployment of Midgetmen hauled on The idea is sure to provoke opposition, as it did trucks. during the Carter era. But as an interim step. Deploying both the truck-borne Midgetman preparing for the day when deterrence relies and rail-based MX risks expensive duplication. on the Midgetman. it is wise to put the MX in a But the plan may be the least awkward way for less dangerous basing mode. Now that he has Bush to wriggle out of a nuclear-arms dilemma adopted this cautious strategy, President Bush bequeathed by the Reagan era. Rather than can get on with his most vital task: pursuing an design and build weapons based on a coherent arms-reduction treaty to stabilize the nuclear strategic plan, the Reagan Pentagon's you-can- standoff at a lower level of risk. Coach Bush's Starting Lineup SJ Ly-26 A/b By ALBERT R. HUNT and Caspar Weinberger under Ronald Rea- together; the chip that the former New When Darrell Royal, the highly success- gan, the congeniality of this trio is striking. Hampshire governor sometimes wears on ful University of Texas football coach, was Even when they disagree, as Messrs. his shoulder is displayed more often when asked on the eve of his team's national Cheney and Scowcroft did on the MX and it doesn't much matter, such as with the championship Cotton Bowl game against Midgetman missiles, it's done with a per- press, than in the more important councils Notre Dame in 1970 whether he would sonal and professional civility lacking in of government. But in Republican circles kall change his staid offense, he answered: earlier administrations. on Capitol Hill, concern persists over the "We're going to dance with the girl who On the domestic side, the fledgling ad- political agility of the White House staff, brung us." ministration benefits from a rich diversity. and Mr. Sununu would be well advised to The sideline critics asking President There are several idea-generators, princi- shore his political operations. Bush to lay out a more sweeping agenda pally Jack Kemp at the Department of Nevertheless, Mr. Sununu - probably for the nation or provide more vision-"th Housing and Urban Development and drug the only person in the administration with Soumal vision thing" as Mr. Bush once awkwardly czar Bill Bennett-perfect types to address an IQ higher than Mr. Darman's-is no called it-would do well to recall Coach seemingly intractable problems. Jack Donald Regan; he's an includer rather Royal's advice. In the biggest game of his Kemp is throwing out more ideas on urban than an excluder. life, George Bush is better off being what poverty and unrest than the interceptions Of course, the key is how George Bush he is than trying to be somèthing that he he threw during his career as a profes- will react when times get tough, in a crisis. never has been. sional quarterback. On the domestic side, the sham of a budget 4-26 After 100 days in office, it's clear that These are balanced by some exception- accord put together this year will give way this president doesn't have an overarching ally able men of governance, such as At- to the necessity for some very tough deci- sense of where he wants to take the coun- sions next year, and odds are he'll face try; he frequently is reactive. But that's More than his recent a recession sometime in this term. exactly the way he was in the many jobs In foreign policy, the tests could come he held before 1988. The Bush campaign predecessors, he has sur- most anywhere. To the dismay of conser- last year certainly didn't lay groundwork rounded himself with ca- vatives, the president will have to deal for any bold moves. with the Democratic Congress in all these But we've had 41 presidents, and you can count on both hands the number of vi- pable men and women issues; that's a price of having failed to win any policy mandate last November. sionaries-though, unfortunately for the in- who bring diverse talents. One Important Experience cumbent, one would be his immediate pre- decessor. But if George Bush isn't any So far, they have avoided In such times, we won't be able to count Thomas Jefferson, it's also clear that he's on President Bush to inspire citizens and a very decent, rather open man with a most petty back-biting. rally public support. If the first 100 days strong sense of values, and that he is more are any guide, he likely will fumble and torney General Richard Thornburgh and self-confident and comfortable than before falter a little at first as he tries to gather Richard Darman, director of the Office of he got to the Oval Office. his bearings. Yet, while a compromiser, Management and Budget. There have been the president isn't likely to be the patsy An Impressive Collection few public officials in modern times who that liberals hoped for; on issues ranging That may be enough to be a pretty good combine Mr. Darman's knowledge of pol- from his no-tax-hike pledge this year to president. More than his recent predeces- icy with his sense of politics, an observa- loyalty to political supporters, Mr. Bush sors, he has surrounded himself with capa- tion that the budget director-a total has shown more resolve than critics ex- ble men and women stranger to self doubt-no doubt believes pected. who bring diverse understates his talents. On the other hand, when he does make talents. So far at And there have been some pleasant sur- a decision, the odds also are that it'll be least, they have prises. As Alan Murray reported in this carried out competently by able lieuten- avoided most of the newspaper last week, Treasury Secretary ants. And, based on one important experi- petty back-biting Nick Brady, the object of numerous pri- ence, this is a man who knows how to that, without a vate barbs and invidious comparisons to cut his losses. That was evident after the strong leader, crip- his predecessor, Jim Baker, is emerging John Tower debacle-within 24 hours he ples government. as an unlikely star of the embryonic ad- selected the immensely popular Rep. In foreign policy, ministration. He's moving ahead in some Cheney and the Tower fiasco was almost James Baker at critical areas, such as the savings and loan forgotten. State, Richard crisis and Third World debt, where the The Bush administration seems unlikely Cheney at Defense much heralded Mr. Baker faltered. Trans- to serve as a rallying point for either con- and Brent Scowcroft portation Secretary Sam Skinner already servative champions or liberal opponents. at the National Secu- is the designated crisis hitter for this ad- President Bush Passion will be in as short supply as a bold rity Council are the ministration, rapidly becoming a real force agenda or a vision. most impressive collection of policy in this town. That may relegate George Bush to the makers in decades. Jim Baker is unsurpas- To be sure, the administration has its ranks of mediocrity. But Darrell Royal sed as a political operative, and Brent dimmer lights. Interior Secretary Manuel never inspired much passion either. And Scowcroft combines unusual personal in- Lujan's main contribution has been an he won 11 conference and three national tegrity and professional competence. Dick early junket to Guam and American Sa- championships. He also beat Notre Dame Cheney possesses all of these traits. moa. The jury is still out on some new- in that Cotton Bowl contest, dancing with Moreover, considering the hostility be- comers such as Health and Human Serv- the girl who brung him. tween Cyrus Vance and Zbigniew Brze- ices Secretary Louis Sullivan. zinski in the Carter administration or the John Sununu, the White House chief of Mr. Hunt is the Journal's Washington constant friction between George Shultz staff, and the president work comfortably bureau chief. WALL STREET JOURNAL 24 APRIL 1989 Pg. 14 Congress-man billion to deploy, coming on line two or three years later than a mobile To understand why Washington suffers from policy gridlock, look no MX. To placate the Hill chiefs, Mr. further than the debate over a new Bush has decided to build both. land-based nuclear missile. After a Wasn't Congress trying to cut defense spending? mere 10 years or so of deliberation, Congress is still browbeating a U.S. Now, we can understand Demo- President into buying a nuclear mis- cratic relief at finally supporting a sile the Pentagon doesn't even want. missile. But what Mr. Bush's non-de- The debate re-emerged last week cision doesn't do is advance U.S. nu- when word leaked that Defense Secre- clear strategy. Congress wants to tary Richard Cheney had urged Presi- spend billions on a new missile to dent Bush to make that rare thing, a solve a relatively small problem: a decision. Agreeing with the military survivable land-based missile. (We chiefs and Reagan administration, have bombers and submarines that al- Mr. Cheney recommended that the 50 ready are survivable, of course.) existing MX missiles be redeployed But the land-based missile be- from silos onto rail cars. The idea is comes a great problem only if you be- to provide more mobility, making lieve in a world of mutual-assured de- them more survivable in the event of struction, or MAD, the notion that to a Soviet first strike. This would cost be perfectly safe from Soviet missiles about $5.4 billion. we must be perfectly vulnerable. If Somehow this is just too simple you believe in the theology of MAD, and inexpensive a solution for you spend billions on a new survivable Congress's military chiefs. "A blow to missile to continue our 40-year nu- chances for bipartisanship in national clear bluff. security and more importantly to the Mr. Cheney may understand that chances" for arms control, said Chief we can begin to move to a safer world Rep. Les Aspin (D., Wis.). "It's going if we invest instead in strategic de- to be very hard to sell over here," fense. Even a modest space-based de- chimed in Chief Sam Nunn (D., Ga.). fense would do much more to enhance Republican Senator John Warner, Mr. deterrence than Midgetman. Earlier Nunn's Deputy Chief, said ominously this year, outgoing SDI boss James that if Mr. Bush took this path Con- Abrahamson concluded that a system gress just wouldn't spend the of interceptor-satellites known as Bril- money. liant Pebbles could be deployed for The Members, you see, have their $25 billion over five years. It's no ac- own pet missile known as Midgetman. cident that Mr. Aspin has said that It really should be called Congress- any funding for Midgetman is likely to man, because Members of Congress come from cuts in spending for SDI. are just about the only people who By speaking up after Mr. Cheney's support it. (Though National Security recommendation, the Congressmen Adviser Brent Scowcroft also sup- hoped to bully Mr. Bush into bending ported it for years past.) It's a per- their way. It worked. Mr. Bush has fectly good missile, mobile because made a non-decision typical of the it'd be based on trucks, and in a world way Washington now works, a non-de- without budgets we might support it. cision that lets everyone except the But Midgetman would cost at least $25 taxpayer claim victory. The Problems of Policy Reviews are especially vulnerable to deci- admission of previous error. group the task of developing sions made on the basis of the By David D. Newsom Policy reviews generally start particular initiative. The polic budgets of the respective armed with the preparation of position formation process has taken a re services. A strategy may not be papers, under a National Security atively short time, thus reducin the result of a detached view of Council directive, and, possibly, the opportunities for the prema HE Bush administration is T what may be best for the United in response to certain specific ture exposure of conclusions be now in the midst of an States; instead it is likely to be a questions posed by a president. fore an administration is ready extensive review of US compromise in which roles and Through endless drafts and meet- The opening to the People's Re foreign and security policy. De- budgets are preserved for each ings, the varied assessments and public of China, for example tails are being periodically re- service on a more or less equal positions are brought closer to- came about through such a vealed to reporters. The formal basis. gether in order to present a realis- process. conclusions are expected in May. Because of the fear that con- tic and coherent set of choices. In Administrations that set out, Not only do people in the clusions or partial conclusions that process, however, creative with some fanfare, to review pre- United States await the outcome, may leak out prematurely, policy thinking is often discarded in the decessors' policies raise expecta- but so do allies and adversaries in reviews are often confined to a search for consensus. tions that, if not met, can lead to Europe. As one who has in past relatively small number of offi- The current policy review disappointment and political em- years participated in policy re- cials. Experts in relevant fields takes place at a critical time. The barrassment. In the case of the views, I hope the results are may be consulted only on partial diplomatic and strategic initia- Bush administration, if no new worth the anticipation. I am not aspects, or they may be shut out tives of Mikhail Gorbachev chal- initiatives result, some will be sanguine that that will be the case. altogether. lenge the premises on which this pleased by a continuation of the IV It is not easy to shift the gears When a new administration nation's post-World War II poli- policies of the Reagan years, but of US policy. The process re- enters office, the primary players cies have been founded. The ad- others will see the administration quires broad consultation - will be those who have entered ministration has made it clear as devoid of ideas or of the cour- within the executive, the Con- government only after the elec- that it will not be rushed to re- age to pursue new directions. gress, and with allies. Premature tion. Some, such as Brent spond to the Moscow actions. At Perhaps the Bush administra- disclosures of conclusions often Scowcroft, the national security the same time, decisions are re- tion policy review will prove that frustrate the process. adviser, may have prior experi- quired on positions for conven- past experience is not a guide, A major policy review in the ence, but that is not the case with tional arms talks, strategic arms and the nation will see new and US government suffers from all. Those who have been in a negotiations, and longer-range imaginative responses to the cur- many handicaps. Each represent- former administration may tend budget priorities. rent situation. The experience of ative of a bureaucratic element to oppose new directions on the Important shifts in US foreign one who has been involved in the tends to look first at the protec- grounds that they have been tried and strategic policies have rarely past suggests it will be a rare ac- tion of "turf" those particular before and failed or out of a sense come through extensive policy re- complishment if that occurs. responsibilities and powers ac- of identification and advocacy for views within the bureaucracy. quired and maintained by that de- earlier policies. For officials to ac- They have come about because David D. Newsom is associate partment or agency. knowledge that a new policy di- presidents have established clear dean and director of the Institute for Budget considerations are rection may be possible or even directions, have asked the tough the Study of Diplomacy at George- equally central. Strategic reviews desirable can be an unwelcome questions, or have given to a small town University. ATLANTA CONSTITUTION 27 APRIL 1989 Pg. 19 Popular 'Gorbachev Show' Requires Clever Rejoinder as if he were the stronger. adviser. Brent Scowcroft, can man- sumption of close relations. The The senator notes with some be- age the shift prospect is for some shift of power Someone had better, because to a Chinese-Soviet axis. And the Tom musement that the number of tanks the Soviet president has promised absent that, the appearance of dan- Middle East remains two sticks rub- Teepen to remove from East Europe unilat- gerous fissures in NATO will be bing together, with the Soviets less erally is the same that Mr. Nunn come a serious possibility. mischievous there than in the past two years ago proposed that NATO but by no means part of any solu- Indeed, we have entered an ex tion yet, either. negotiate to remove reciprocally. traordinarily tricky period for U.S What is more, the United States And Mr. Gorbachev, Mr. Nunn policy and interests overall. "Amazing." "Bold." "Inno- says, agreed to concessions in the As Mr. Nunn notes. the United is suddenly flying blind. unable any longer to predict Kremlin behavior vative." intermediate-range nuclear forces States has had remarkable success Vivid words, and when they (INF) treaty that the U.S. intelli- in its major post-World War II with reliability. According to Mr. Nunn. no one in Washington had come from Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), gence community predicted he goals. We have contained Soviet ex- the foggiest idea what was going on the ear perks up. Careful Sam Nunn would reject. (Which adds, provoca- pansion. (And nationalist yearnings usually feels his way through a sen- tively, to the growing indications Tuesday in the unexpected meeting in East Europe and ethnic ones of the Communist Party Central tence like a man reaching for a that the INF treaty was an acciden- within the Soviet Union might even Committee. (Mr. Gorbachev was re- light switch in the dark. tal success for the Reagan adminis- drum a small recessional.) We have placing deadwood with more re- tration, that the administration Yet these were the senator's protected access to world markets. went into negotiations only to pla- We have rebuilt the war-ravaged formers. Many in Washington words, and, even more surprisingly, cate home-front clamors for arms- on behalf of a Soviet leader. Mr. economies, even of former enemies wrongly suspected the long-sup- control action, made demands it felt posed counter-revolution instead.) Nunn was talking to members of the Japan and Germany. We have creat- surely would be spurned and, when ed an environment in which democ- When the failed Soviet Union Commerce Club at an early-morning do yesterday, and his assessment of they were accepted instead, was racy and free trade are prevailing: and its Kremlin, one of the world's stuck with a victory it hadn't most of the Third World has given motherlodes of mossbacks, can pro- Mikhail S. Gorbachev was admiring, wanted.) up on the Marxist model. duce a leader who looks like the within its limits. As the result of the new Soviet Yet the burden of debt in the wave of the future, something more Sam Nunn is not a fellow who clever is called for from the West, initiatives and flexibility, the Gorbo Third World threatens to beat back lightly gives away any respect to a by way of response, than the rote Soviet boss. Yet he concedes, and show is playing particularly well in democracy's tentative rise. Mr. Gor- recitation of familiar and increas- worries, that Mr. Gorbachev, al- West Europe and, Mr. Nunn makes bachev has reduced Soviet troops ing irrelevant cautions. though the Soviet Union is clearly clear, it requires a more sophisti- on the Chinese border, eased the weaker than NATO, has taken the cated U.S. rejoinder than has so far Vietnamese out of Cambodia and Mr. Teepen is editor of The policy initiative away from the West been developed. He is hopeful that retreated from Afghanistan - meet- Constitution's editorial pages. President Bush's national security ing Beijing's conditions for the re- SMITH HEMPSTONE The Washington Post The New York Times Getting it right at The Washington Times F3 The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News the start USA Today The Chicago Tribune T he first 100 days of George Bush's understated presi- Date 28 APR 1989 dency have not exactly confrontation and that they must shaken the very foundations deal with the world as it is, rather "The important thing is to get it of the known world. And thank than as how they would like it to be. right at the start, to decide where Heaven for that. In this, they make a virtue of ne- they want to end up and to resolve The 41st president of the United cessity, for there is precious little how to get there. States is by nature a cautious, unpre- money available to fund great adven- "The second thing to understand tentious man who shuns the trap- tures abroad, or to finance grandi- at the beginning is that no American pings of the imperial presidency. He ose domestic programs. Given the administration can solve all the is not a great orator and he has trou- necessity of reducing the budget world's problems in four years, or ble with what he calls "the vision deficit, the big-spending days are eight. thing." over. "The third precept to accept is Following on the heels of Ronald Critics of President Bush and his that not every problem has a solu- Reagan, the Great Communicator, team maintain that the White House tion. Mr. Bush frequently comes across has no agenda, no strategy, no con- "We must act decisively, lest op- as awkward, ill at ease and inarticu- victions and no vision. Such crit- portunities be lost. But always, fes- late. Who would not? But can anyone icism, while not entirely without tina lente; don't make a mess you doubt that Mr. Bush is the more in- foundation, is fundamentally super- can't clean up." telligent, informed and energetic of ficial, confusing fanfare with ac- While there are difficult and chal- the two men? complishment. lenging days ahead, both at home In any case, the first 100 days of a In their first 100 days in office, Mr. and abroad, Mr. Bush has come to new administration can show dra- Bush and his White House team have power at a time when regional con- matic change only when the new ad- created a plan to rescue the battered flicts around the world are cooling ministration and the old are headed savings and loan industry, fashioned off, and there is relative prosperity by presidents of rival parties. It a compromise with Congress that at and tranquility at home. Few boats would hardly have been appropriate least keeps the Nicaraguan Contras are being rocked. for Mr. Bush, having served through- together as a force-in-being until While there is no cause for com- out the previous administration as February, worked out an agreement placency and plenty of room for im- vice president, to have renounced with Congress for reducing the fed- provement (as the president would the Reagan administration and all its eral budget deficit and produced a be the first to recognize), he can af- works, embarking on new directions revised program for dealing with ford to take his time defining his and articulating new policies. Third World debt. aims and formulating his policies. When they voted for him, the They have formulated a program Mr. Bush should move with a combi- American people were calling as for economic aid to reformist Poland nation of due caution and deliberate much for continuity as for change. and advocated new measures in the speed to place his personal stamp on And that is what Mr. Bush has given areas of child care, education and American policy. Most of the prob- them. A time will come for new de- ethics. None of this is world-shaking, lems that exist tomorrow, on his partures, but change under Mr. but neither is it inconsequential. 100th day in office, are likely to be Bush is likely to be incremental Much time, energy and political there on his 200th day. rather than radical, building on what capital was expended by the admin- Carping at a president - any has gone before. istration in the unsuccessful attempt president - is a time-honored sport Lost causes and forlorn hopes are to get John Tower confirmed as de- within the Washington Beltway. But the stuff of best-selling novels, but fense secretary, slowing the filling a mid-April New York Times/CBS they do not make for sound public of other posts. But as the White News poll indicates that 61 percent policy. The Bush foreign-policy team House team takes shape and gains of the American people give Mr. - Secretary of State James A. Baker experience in working together, Bush high marks for his perfor- III, National Security Adviser Brent more productive days surely will mance as president, and that's what Scowcroft, Defense Secretary Rich- come. counts. ard Cheney and CIA Director Wil- It is true that time and the tides liam Webster - are pragmatists wait for no man, that opportunities rather than crusaders. They under- lost particularly in respect to poli- stand that half a loaf can be prefer- cies toward the Soviet Union and able to none, that under some condi- Eastern Europe may never come tions conciliation is wiser than again. But it is equally true that ill- conceived initiatives can be counter- productive, and poor planning can Smith Hempstone is a nationally produce illusory progress. syndicated columnist. In this space on Jan. 20 (Inaugura- tion Day), this observer wrote: "The motto of the Bush-Baker for- eign policy team ought to be festina lente: Make haste slowly. Page 12. ARNOLD BEICHMAN The Washington Post The New York Times What isn't getting The Washington Times F-1 The Wall Street Journal The Christian Science Monitor lost in the shuffle New York Daily News USA Today The Chicago Tribune he man who helps to final analysis, can control the Polit- Date T brief President George buro, the top decision-making body. 28 ApR 1989 Bush on what's going on The Central Committee did just that helped provoke the 1967 Middle East in the world and helps in 1957 when the then-Politburo War; in the mid-1970s, they sup- prepare policy options tried to oust Nikita Khrushchev. Mr. ported Cuban surrogate forces in about what the United Khrushchev then convened the en- Angola and Ethiopia; they supplied States ought to do about it is Robert tire Central Committee which re- the wherewithal for North Viet- M. Gates, deputy assistant to the versed the Politburo decision and he nam's final conquest of South Viet- president for national security af- remained in power until October nam; they underwrote the Sandi- fairs. His immediate boss is National 1964. nista revolution in Nicaragua; they Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, Mr. Gates has laid out a strategy sold $12 billion worth of weapons to Prior to his White House assign- agenda for the May meeting and any Libya; they invaded Afghanistan; in ment, Mr. Gates was deputy director subsequent meetings. The strategy 1980-81, they forced imposition of of the Central Intelligence Agency. was described in a too-little-noticed martial law in Poland and suppres- His doctoral academic specialty was address he made April 1 at the Cen- sion of Solidarity and the de- Russian history ter for Strategic and International struction of the dissident and human Mr. Gates is of that school of ana- Studies. Salient concepts from that rights movements. lysts who believe that ideology, even 4,000-word speech must be inter- "And all this," says Mr. Gates, in the era of Soviet President Mi- preted as reflecting, in whole or "took place against the backdrop of khail Gorbachev, plays a major role part, the thinking of Mr. Bush. Here the greatest peacetime military in the formulation of Soviet foreign are some of the highlights of the build-up in history." policy. For U.S. policy-makers to ig- Gates analysis: Mr. Gates said he offered this nore or to minimize the importance "We in government, as a rule, sketch of Soviet history "to under- of Marxism-Leninism in the Krem- spend too little time thinking about score that our view of the Soviet lin's operational code is to shackle and planning for the future. We Union cannot be based on the per- policy interpretation to current cul- spend too little time reflecting on sonality of one or another leader, but tural chic. His views must carry history and experience; we neglect must be based on the nature of the some weight in the White House. In strategy for tactics. The Bush ad- Soviet system itself. It is the So- a recent speech he used the pronoun ministration is trying to resist this. viet system itself, and the 70-year "we" or "our" at least 15 times. Accordingly, our reviews of the in- continuity we see from leader to Stimulated by former President ternational setting and our policies leader, from Lenin to Chernenko, Ronald Reagan, the present fashion are focused on the development of and even Gorbachev, that shapes our in thinking about the Soviet Union is long-range strategy." view of the U.S.S.R." that Mr. Gorbachev is a vast im- "Regardless of the substantial "[W]e cannot make long-term provement over previous Soviet odds against him, we take seriously decisions and devise strategies af- leaders because Mr. Gorbachev has Gorbachev's determination to mod- fecting freedom and the future that adopted Leninist rather than Stalin- ernize the Soviet economy." depend on the continued political (or ist principles as part of his "peres- The Soviet system of rule over a even physical) survival of one man. troika" reform program. Mr. Gates 70-year period "has brought to the Unlike any Western or other mod- publicly disagreed with that inter- peoples of the old Russian empire ern state, politics at the highest level pretation. suffering on a scale previously un- in the Kremlin today are as hidden President Bush has been the tar- known in human history I believe from public view as in generations get of domestic critics as well as it essential for us today to under- past. Much has changed, but more Gorbachev spokesmen for having stand that this record is not confined that is fundamental remains the shunned. since his inauguration, ne- to the Stalin era alone. was not the same." gotiations with the Soviets. doing of a single demented leader. "[W]hat Gorbachev has set in For anybody to whom Bush- but covers the entirety of Soviet his- motion represents a political earth- bashing is not a priority, the admin- tory, and is the product of the very quake He is a figure of enormous istration position has been fairly nature of the system itself." political importance. The forces he clear: Past U.S. policies vis-a-vis the "The popular impression of the has unleashed are powerful. but so U.S.S.R. need careful review and Brezhnev period, reinforced by Gor- are the people and institutions he that takes time. As Secretary of bachev, is one of doddering old men has antagonized - thus setting in State James A. Baker III put it, presiding ineffectively and incom- motion a tremendous power strug- "When we're ready to talk, we'll petently over a stagnating economy gle and purge no less dramatic for talk." This is Western historical amne- the absence of show trials and ter- The time for talk will come next sia and Soviet selectivity, if not disin- ror." month, May 10-11 in Moscow, espe- formation." cially now that Mr. Gorbachev has In the era of "doddering" Leonid visibly strengthened his power by Brezhnev, the following events OC- nd here is the crucial finding purging 110 senior party officials, 74 curred: In 1968 the Soviets invaded A by one of the highest of whom were members of the Cen- Czechoslovakia; they attacked China policy-making officials in tral Committee of the Communist along the Ussuri river, with hints of the Bush administration, Party. The Central Committee, in the a nuclear attack to come; they one who when he speaks says "we": Page 14, "However, elections notwith- standing, Gorbachev's Leninism still means the continued political mono- poly of the Communist Party. Gorba- chev's dictatorship of the Commu- nist Party remains untouched and untouchable. He seeks still a system based on the same Leninist political principles that guided his predeces- sors. As he said in 1987, 'We will not retreat an inch from the path of so- cialism, of Marxism-Leninism." What, then. does Mr. Bush seek from Mr. Gorbachev's U.S.S.R.? Nothing more than a counterrevolu- tion. Or, according to Mr. Gates, a Soviet Union that is pluralistic inter- nally, non-interventionist externally, observes basic human rights, con- tributes to international stability and tranquility, "and a Soviet Union where these changes are more than an edict from the top and are in- dependent of the views, power and durability of a single individual." I read the Gates speech as a basic state paper from George Bush to Mi- khail Gorbachev. Unfortunately for world peace, the Soviet response will be a repudi- ation of Mr. Bush's hopes for a gen- tler, kinder U.S.S.R. Arnold Beichman, a Hoover Insti- tution research fellow. is a Washington Times columnist. 15. 5 Rowland Evans and Robert Novak Missile Misery George Bush has privately passed the word chev, who visits Bonn from June 12 to June to advisers that he will not "submit" to 15? Chancellor Helmut Kohl's call for early negoti- Not for years has the West German gov- ations over NATO's short-range missiles, put- ernment lobbied members of NATO as fer- ting the 40-year-old alliance on a collision vently as Kohl and his top advisers are pres- course and testing the new president's pen- suring France, Italy and lesser allies to chant for compromise. reverse the American refusal to open negotia- Compromise is not likely this time. Not only tions. This has infuriated Britain's Prime Min- is President Bush opposed, but Secretary of ister Margaret Thatcher, who is just as op- State James A. Baker III, Defense Secretary posed to negotiations as Bush. Dick Cheney and National Security Adviser Believed to be allied with Kohl on the Brent Scowcroft each strongly shares his missile issue are Italy, Belgium, Spain, Nor- view. Bush fears that with Mikhail Gorba- way, Denmark and possibly France, which chev's peace campaign in full stride, negotia- does not want to alienate its German ally. So tions would inevitably lead to the removal of far, only Britain and Canada support Bush. all short-range missiles, undermining NATO's Even though the United States by itself defense strategy. dwarfs its allies militarily, German pressures That points the alliance toward a troubling worry the Americans. crisis at its meeting in Brussels at the end of This crisis began building in February when May. What was planned for Bush as NATO's Kohl leaked that, at the May Brussels meet- glorious 40th birthday party may become a ing, he would oppose any NATO decision to summit fraught with danger. Gorbachev, cat- replace the aging Lance missile. Baker, leav- alyst of Kohl's split with Bush, chose this ing on his first grand tour of Europe as moment to show his strength by expelling secretary of state, was caught unprepared. Brezhnevites from the Central Committee and ordering the start of Soviet troop withdrawals Baker finally and benignly ended up agree- from Hungary. ing not to insist on any hard decision on a Nobody expects the president's determina- successor missile to the Lance until after the tion to weaken, and it is taken for granted 1990 West German election. He regarded here that the chancellor has his political future that as a major concession to the chancellor too much at stake to reverse position. Con- and thought it would not only satisfy him but vinced that short-range missile negotiations would give him enough margin to placate with Moscow are essential to satisfy German Genscher. Instead, Kohl surprised Washing- voters mesmerized by Gorbachev, Kohl ton again by sending Genscher on his over- stepped up pleas for talks with the Soviets in a night trip to Washington to demand that the recent speech to the Bundestag. United States go- a big step further and That followed his dramatic dispatch of For- approve negotiations. eign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher to Bush administration policy makers privately Washington earlier this week. Genscher holds concede there is plenty of blame to go around the patent on a new policy of much closer ties as NATO seeks a way out of its missile between Western Europe and Gorbachev's misery, and the Reagan administration's arms new Soviet Union. control mania gets a big share. As a private The future of Kohl's conservative party and citizen, Scowcroft warned that President Rea- Genscher's liberal party, the coalition part- gan's treaty banning intermediate-range mis- ners that govern West Germany, may rise or siles could start a mindless, irreversible antin- fall on two questions. How tough a line will uclear stampede, cleverly encouraged by Kohl take against Bush on the missile issue? Gorabchev. Now Scowcroft and his boss are How soft a line will he take toward Gorba- trying to stop the stampede. © 1989, North America Syndicate, Inc. WASHINGTON POST, 4/28/89, p. A25 The Washington Post Kissinger and Friends The New York Times A1 The Washington Times The Wall Street Journal And Revolving Doors The Christian Science Monitor New York Daily News By JEFF GERTH USA Today with SARAH BARTLETT The Chicago Tribune Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, April 29 At a Date time when Washington is agoniz- ates. But many Government offi- 30 ApR 1989 ing over how to insure that official cials and clients of the firm have no problem with the multiple 9Mr. Kissinger and Mr. Scowcroft, responsibilities are adequately as frequent unpaid members of Fed- separated from private interests, roles of iss principals and are eral advisory boards, advised Presi- the example of Kissinger Associ- open in their support. dent Reagan on arms control issues at ates Inc. raises some particularly "I think we're nuts," James D. the same time that they worked for thorny questions. Robinson 3d, chairman and chief clients involved in missile systems and Until recently, Henry A. Kissin- executive of the American Ex- missile making. The two men have said ger, a former Secretary of State, press Company, said of the Sen- there was no conflict, or even an ap- pearance of a conflict, between their and his two senior colleagues, ate's questioning of Mr. Eagle- Government advice and their private Brent Scowcroft and Lawrence S. burger over his work for Kissin- consulting. Eagleburger, were principals in a ger clients. 'It's almost as though unique enterprise. On some days, we want to find someone who's Firm's Activities the three might be found discuss- the least qualified for the job.'' ing East-West relations with top The Kissinger group is a promi- An Unusual Claim American and Soviet officials or nent instance of a pervasive serving on Government advisory Washington phenomenon: the "revolv- Of Confidentiality boards. On others, they might be ing door." Mr. Scowcroft now serves consulting, for substantial fees, President Bush as national security ad- From two discreet, unmarked offices for some of the world's largest viser, a post he had previously held in New York and Washington; more corporations on behalf of the under President Gerald R. Ford, suc- than 20 staff members of Kissinger As- seven-year-old firm. ceeding Mr. Kissinger. And Mr. Eagle- sociates work on research and analysis burger, who served as Under Secretary for the presentations, mostly oral, that The Thorny Questions of State before becoming president of Mr. Kissinger and his colleagues make Through their close relation- Kissinger Associates in 1984, recently to their clients. For his efforts, Mr. ships with foreign governments stepped up to Deputy Secretary, the de- Eagleburger earned a total of $674,000 and their extensive knowledge of partment's second-ranking position. last year, $214,000 of which was paid by Kent Associates, an affiliate of the foreign affairs, they have made a The jobs are among the most sensi- company that handles more specific good living by offering geopoliti- tive and influential in Washington. Mr. assignments. Mr. Scowcroft made cal insight, advice and entree to Scowcroft now briefs President Bush on pressing diplomatic and military Associates. $293,000 as a consultant to Kissinger about 30 leading global compa- nies. Among those willing to pay matters, and Mr. Eagleburger helps formulate the Administration's strat- What exactly do they do for that $200,000 or more to be clients of egy for East-West relations and other much money? An executive from H. J. Kissinger Associates are ITT, leading issues. Heinz said that Mr. Kissinger helped American Express, Anheuser- The tensions surrounding the revolv- provide background and introductions Busch, Coca-Cola, H.J. Heinz, ing-door issue were at the heart of when the company was considering Fiat, Volvo, L. M. Ericsson, Dae- President Bush's ethics commission. building a baby food factory in China. W00 and Midland Bank. He recently adopted most of its recom- And an executive at the Swedish bank In a field as subtle as foreign mendations on ways to improve the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, a for- policy, can people like Mr. Kissin- handling of conflict-of-interest issues. mer client, attributed its early selloff of Latin American loans to Mr. Kissin- ger and his associates wall off Particulars of the Debate ger's insights. what they know of confidential Underlying the case of Kissinger As- Government discussions from Other than a few sparse anecdotes sociates are these particulars: like those, little is known about what what they can legitimately advise 9In his financial disclosure state- Kissinger Associates does for its their corporate clients? And when ment, Mr. Scowcroft did not list the clients. When the Senate Foreign Rela- people of their stature help shape Kissinger clients he worked with or his tions Committee first tried to elicit Government decisions, can they positions at the firm. The day after an more information on the firm's activi- ignore what they know of their inquiry by a reporter, he amended the ties as part of the confirmation pro- corporate clients' interests? statement to reflect his position as vice cess, Mr. Eagleburger "was adamant chairman. And finally, is it possible to in his refusal" to discuss any details, qMr. Scowcroft belatedly disclosed according to a committee staff memo- meet those legitimate concerns that he held stock in Kissinger Associ- randum. He invoked a confidentiality without imposing so burdensome ates and, according to Mr. Kissinger clause in the firm's contracts that pro- a set of requirements that they and public documents, he arranged last hibits any discussion of its contractual drive able people away from pub- month to have Mr. Kissinger buy it lic service? back for nine times its estimated law. arrangements unless mandated by worth. Mr. Kissinger subsequently re- The 'Revolving Door' duced the price to be paid for the stock, A number of present and for- but the deal could have been construed mer Government officials, none of as an undisclosed "golden handshake" whom would allow themselves to or gift. be identified, have questions about potential conflicts of inter- est involving Kissinger Associ- Page 24. Later, he provided a general descrip- Mr. Kissinger said he had not re- tion of some of the advice the firm gave cused himself from any matter before bodies, including a 1983 Presidential most clients. The committee, appar- the advisory board, nor has he partici- commission on strategic forces headed ently satisfied, declined to push him for pated in any board matter in which, "to by Mr. Scowcroft. more details, and he was unanimously his knowledge, he has a financial inter- The principal mandate of that com- confirmed. A survey of other interna- est," said Michael T. Masin, Mr. Kis- mission was to recommend alternative time). consulting firms found such a singer's lawyer. locations for the MX missile. At the written prohibition unusual. In an in- Asked about the appearance of a con- time, Mr. Scowcroft was president of templew, Mr. Kissinger said he has the flict, a Government-wide standard, Mr. Kissinger Associates as well as a per- Masin added: "There is no appearance clause to protect his clients and to in- sonal consultant on general arms con- sure that they do not abuse their con- problem because nobody knows about trol and military issues for the Lock- nections with him. it, and nobody knows about it because heed Corporation, Hugh Burns, a Lock- Mr. Kissinger said that he and his the law requires that Pfiab matters are heed spokesman, said. secret, and the Kissinger confidential- colleagues went to great lengths to Mr. Scowcroft's ties to Lockheed, a ity agreement prohibits people talking avoid any conflicts and to keep their major military contractor, were not about it." publicly known, but were diselosed in a policy recommendations separate from their business interests. Neither Involvement in Arms Control confidential statement to the Pentagon. he nor his associates will work on be- A Pentagon lawyer who reviewed that Mr. Kissinger said that his principal half of any government. Nor, he added, statement discussed it the condition area of involvement at the intelligence does anyone from the firm lobby Amer- advisory board has been arms control that he not be identified. The lawyer ican officials on behalf of a client. and that he saw no conflict because said the Lockheed consultancy was not considered a problem because the none of his clients are really involved company was not likely to be affected Government Role in arms control matters. by the MX decisions. Public records show that some clients of Kissinger Associates are in Recommendations on Trident Kissinger's Window affected by military matters. For ex- The commission's final report, how- ample, one client, the ITT Corporation, ever, contained a number of other On Intelligence a $9 billion corporation with about 7 recommendations, including "contin- percent of its annual business in mili- ued development and the deployment Mr. Kissinger and his colleagues are tary contracts, operates various of the Trident II (D-5) missile as rap- not the only consultants to serve on United States missile systems under a idly as possible." Lockheed has long Government commissions or go $700 million contract, according to the been the manager of the Trident mis- through Washington's revolving door. company's annual reports. sile program, including the D-5. Where they differ from other consult- Mr. Eagleburger was an ITT direc- When asked whether Mr. Scowcroft ants, however, is in the extent to which tor for the last four years, and told the should have participated in that recom- they maintain other roles. For the last Senate committee about cost problems mendation, the Pentagon lawyer said, five years, for example, Mr. Kissinger with ITT's missile contracts. Asked if "If I realized they were going into that has had a continuing window into the Mr. Kissinger was aware of ITT's mili- area I would have asked him to make Government's most sensitive informa- tary work, Mr. Masin said, "Clearly some decision whether to discontinue tion as a member of the President's he's not." his consulting with Lockheed or with- Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, draw from the commission's delibera- Eye on Intelligence Documents tions in that area." or Pfiab (pronounced PIFF-ee-ab). A former Pfiab official, who asked The 16-member board is a little- Mr. Scowcroft declined to respond to not to be identified because of the known but powerful group of scientists, written questions about the Lockheed board's secrecy pledge, said that Mr. business executives and former Gov- situation or any other matter. He told a Kissinger, using his authority as a ernment officials that gives independ- reporter in 1986, however, that his work board member, frequently reviewed in- ent advice about a wide range of intelli- for his only military client, presumably telligence documents outside the regu- gence issues and activities. Some of the Lockheed, was not a problem because lar board meetings. board's other prominent members are he advised it not about arms but about In addition, the former official said William French Smith, the former At- "the future of arms control and Soviet- he believed that Mr. Kissinger's associ- torney General, and Zbigniew Brzezin- American relations." He added that his ation with the board gave him benefit ski, national security adviser in the work on commissions "takes a tremen- because he could not have separated Carter Administration. dous amount of time, and it is done the insights gained from his access to gratis for the national interest." Members of the board must submit United States intelligence data from confidential lists of their holdings and his continuing analysis and advice to clients, as lawyers, scientists and other clients. Disclosure Practices professionals do for many other Gov- Mr. Masin said such a suggestion ernment posts. Sometimes, after con- was "outrageous." Referring to Mr. sultation with Government attorneys, Differences Noted Kissinger's clients, he added, "I just or even voluntarily, board members have stepped down from matters that couldn't imagine anyone being im- pressed by Pfiab." On Ethical Issues would have had a financial effect on clients, according to Government offi- If a certain one of President Bush's cials. The recusal standard applies Scowcroft at Lockneed ethics proposals is adopted, part-time even if board members advise their advisers like Mr. Kissinger could con- clients on different matters from those that are before the board, a Govern- Pentagon Lawyer's tinue to advise the Government even on matters that create potential conflicts. ment lawyer said. 'All Sorts of Conflicts' Second Thoughts Under the proposal, if part-time advis- ers were granted a waiver, an occa- "There are all sorts of conflicts" on sionally used way to handle conflicts, the board, said Anne L. Armstrong, Hybrid commissions have come to they would have to disclose the perti- chairman of the board and a former play an increasingly important role in nent financial interests, which are not ambassador, but she added: "I'm to- shaping Government policy, according currently required to be made public. tally satisfied. It comes down to believ- to Government officials. In addition to Currently, when people like Mr. ing in your board members' integrity." Pfiab, Mr. Kissinger has worked on a Scowcroft enter the Government full- number of other Government advisory time, fuller disclosure is demanded and greater attention is paid to avoiding CONTENUED 25.