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Global Warming: Articles/Reports [2 of 4] [1988-92]
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Global Warming: Articles/Reports [2 of 4] [1988-92]
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
2005-0336-F
2005-0336-F
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This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
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George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
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Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
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Bromley, D. Allan, Files
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Global Climate Change Files
OA/ID Number:
62050
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62050-006
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Global Warming: Articles/Reports [2 of 4] [1988-92]
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upport Col. Mengistu
the Soviets will finally learn that de-
starving millions who must have
V
peace to survive? More practically,
for
spite Ethiopia's geopolitical value,
the game is up. Reportedly, Soviet
can they somehow tame the EPLF
stat
officers have been pulled out of As-
and get it to agree not to interfere
nati
Soviet Union and Is-
S primarily a littoral
mara to avoid further captures.
with their concerns about the Red
tu's
The Israelis have also had their
Sea? Therein lies the rub. The EPLF
con
Sea. For the Soviets,
old in Africa, a place
losses and their disappointments
is the oldest continuously fighting
the
uence and power can
with Col. Mengistu and, as astute po-
guerrilla movement in the world. It
no
files
lown into Kenya or
litical observers, they too must see
has had very little help from any-
lar]
is the countries south
the handwriting on the wall. But
body. Even forces as big as the Sovi-
cer
For the Israelis, it is
they also persist. The Tigreans have
ets and as adept as the Israelis
cor
Arab states along the
cut or threatened the roads to Addis
should be cautious by now. And as
can
while a vote against
FIFTY REASONS TO DOUBT GLOBAL WARMING
anger a city full of
1 sides of this issue,
1. Spencer, R., and Christy, J.R., 1990: "Precise Monitoring of Global Temperature
25. Henderson, Sellers A., 1987: "Climate is a Cloudy Issue" NEW SCIENCE
the mob media.
Trends from Satellites." SCIENCE V. 247 pp 1,558-1,562. Shows no warming trend
#115 (1570) pp. 37-39. Shows general increase in cloudiness, suggesting climate
in atmosphere 1979-1988.
cooling not warming.
rly every page of this
2. Lindzen, R., 1990: "Some Coolness Concerning Global Warming" Bulletin
26. Roeckner, E., et al., 1988: "Cloud Effects and Climate Modeling," Nature #329,
trosity will generate
American Meteorological Society. V 71 288-299. Shows conflict between model
pp. 138-140. More realistic cloud modeling will slash warming forecasts.
forecasts and reality.
27. Shaw, G.E., 1987: "Aerosols as Climate Regulators." ATMOS ENVIR. #21,
pages of regulation.
3. Angell, J.K., 1986: "Annual and Seasonal Global Temperature Changes in
pp. 985-986. Shows ocean surface micro-organisms operate to regulate plankton,
egulation in the Fed-
Troposphere and Low Stratosphere." MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW #107, pp
and climate effects through aerosols.
S good for at least a
1922-1930. Shows no statistically significant trend in N.H. stratospheric temp.,
28. Charlson, R., & Lovelock, J.E., et al., 1987: "Oceanic phytoplankton, at-
despite CO2 buildup.
ers, though it will do
mospheric sulphur, cloud albedo and climate." NATURE #326, pp. 655-661.
4. Ramanathan, V., et al.. 1989: "Cloud Radiative Forcing and Climate." SCIENCE
or the environment.
Shows how phytoplankton regulate Earth's temperatures, suggesting CO2
#243, pp. 57-63. Shows net effect of terrestrial cloudiness is cooling - not
buildups and declines may be more effect than cause.
e EPA predicted an
warming as models assume.
29. Newell, R.A., et al., 1989: "Ocean Climate Records." MIT Technology Review,
5. Karl, T.R., and Jones, P.D., 1988: "Urban Bias in Area-Averaged Surface Air
spring" in the nation
October 1989. Shows no change in gobal ocean climate record over 120 years in
Temperature Trends." BULL AMER. MET. SOC. #70, pp. 265-270. Shows NASA
surface or air temperatures and no lagged effect.
1 rain, and Congress
temperature record has a 0.2 degree C. urban bias, cutting actual global warming
30. Broeker, W.S., 1987: "Unpleasant Surprises in the greenhouse?" NATURE
a massive study. In
to 0.2-0.3 degrees, last 100 years.
#328, pp. 123-126. Shows unfounded speculations on global warming have
6. Michaels, P.J., et al., 1988: "Anthropogenic Warming in North Alaska?" J. OF
reached inordinate levels.
on later, the National
CLIM. #1, pp. 942-945. Using atmospheric pressures to show non-urban temp.
ion Project (NAPAP)
trends, shows no warming since 1948.
31. Lindzen, R.S., et al., 1982: "The Role of Convective Model Choice in Calc.
ily 2 percent of U.S.
7. Michaels, P.J., et al., 1989: "Regional 500 Millibar Heights Prior to Radiosonde
Clim. Impact of CO2 Doubling." J.ATMOS SCI. #39, pp. 1,189-1,205. The influ-
Era" Proceedings 6th Conf. Amer. Met Soc. 1989. Extends atmos.press./
ence of failure to understand deep convection's role in cooling.
ic, and nearly 70 of
temperature model to 1885, shows no net non-urban warming and substantial
32. Newell, R.A., et al., 1978: "Long-Term Global Sea Surface Temperature
dic in pre-industrial
decline since 1940.
Fluctuations and Their Possible Influence on Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations."
8. Ellsaesser, H.W., et al., 1984: "Global Climatic Trends as Revealed by Record
PURE APPL. GEO. #116, pp. 351-371. Shows no change in global sea tempera-
nothing for the next
Data." REVIEW OF GEOPHYS, #24, pp. 745-792. Shows all of the temperature
tures over a century.
will be no further
rise since 1880 took place prior to trace gas buildup, followed by substantial
33. Ellsaesser H., 1986: "Surface Temperature Changes Following 6 Major Vol-
decline.
canic Episodes 1780-1980." J.CLIM. APPL MET. #25, pp. 1,184-1,185. Shows
ere is no "aquatic SI-
climate more resistant to radiation shocks than thought.
st as there was no glo-
9. Sanson J., 1989: "Antarctic Surface Temp. Time Series." J. CLIMATE #2, pp.
1164-1172. Shows no surface winter temperature trend at the pole, where GCMs
34. Schneider, S.H., 1988 - on greenhouse effect: "1988 Drought, Cause and
predict it most strongly.
Effect or Media Event?" CLIM CHANGE #13, pp. 113-115. Shows 1988 summer
en. John Glenn, Ohio
10. Seaver, W.L. et al., 1988: "Stat. Exam. of Sky Cover Changes in Contiguous
had no relation to CO2 warming and was misconstrued by media.
d on the Senate floor
U.S." J. CLIM. APPL. MET #26, pp. 88-95. Documents rising cloudiness offsetting
35. Hare, F.K., 1988: "Jumping the Greenhouse Gun." NATURE #334, p. 646.
predicted greenhouse effects.
Warns policy-makers against premature action based on weak science.
sively from this re-
11. Wigley, T.M., 1989: "Possible Climate Change Due to SO2 Derivative Cloud
36. Maddox, J.. 1988: "Jumping the Greenhouse Gun." NATURE 334, 9. Ditto.
), because Congress,
Condensation Nuclei," NATURE #338 pp. 365-367. Suggests sulphate cloud
Warns politicians from overreacting to insufficient science on GW issue.
rman John Dingell's
brightening explains lack of warming trend since 1940.
37. Wood, F.B. Jr., 1988: "The Need For Validation of the U.K. Temp. Trends With
12. Barnett, T.P and Schelsinger, M.E., 1987: "Detecting Changes in Global
Repect to Urban Bias." CLIM CHG #12, pp. 297-312. Shows how hard it is to
mmerce Committee,
Climate Induced by Greenhouse Gases." J. GEOPHYS. RES. #92, pp.
remove urban bias from global records.
in to hold hearings on
14,722-14,780. Shows natural climate variability is grater than the ability of models
38. Wood, F.B. Jr., 1989: "Global Alpine Glacier Trends 1960-1980," J. ARCTIC
to detect trends.
ALP. RES. #20, pp. 404-413. Shows 55 percent of glacial ice now advancing, not
ort.
13. Balling, R.C., and Idso, S.B., 1989: "Historical Temp. Trends in the U.S. and
melting, up from 5 percent in 1960. This is opposite to trends predicted by GCMs.
of Mr. Dingell's own
Effect of Urban Pop Growth." J. GEO. RES. #84, pp. 3,359-3,363. Shows dramatic
39. Reifsnyder, W.E., 1989: "A Tale of 10 Fallacies" AGRI FOREST. MET. A
reminded us, "Why
drop in U.S. Southeast mean winter temperatures over 60 years.
skeptic's analysis of what's wrong with GCMs by top Yale environmental scientist.
14. Karl., T.R., et al., 1988: "Urbanization: Its Detection and Effect on U.S. Climate
40. Trenberth, K.E., et al., 1989: "Origins of 1988 N.A. Drought." TRANS. AMER.
esident has drawn the
Record." J.CLIM. #1, pp. 1,099-1,123. Shows that urban bias affects temperature
GEOPHYS. U.N. #69, p. 1067. Shows 1988 heat and drought entirely caused by
e at removing 10 mil-
record in towns as small as 2,580 in population and could explain entire "warming
change in El Nino ocean current, not CO2.
hur dioxide, and that
trend" of Hansen observations.
41. Hansen, K., Karl, T.R., et al., 1989: "Are GH Effects Apparent in Climatic Record
15. Michaels, P.J., 1985: "Anomalous Mid Atmospheric Heights and Persistent
of Contigous U.S. States (1895-1987)?" GEOPHYS. RES. LTRS. #16, pp. 49-52.
: right wall." Mr. Din-
Thunderstorm Patterns over Florida," J. CLIMATOLOGY #5, pp. 529-542. Doc-
Shows "no significant trend" in U.S. temperatures in 93 years.
taff have repeatedly
uments substantial cooling of middle layers of U.S. atmosphere, free of urban bias.
42. Namias J., 1989: "Cold Waters and Hot Summers" NATURE #338, pp. 15-16.
at the nation does not
16. Solow, A.R., 1987 "Testing For Climate Change." J of CLIM. APPI. MET. #26,
Shows 1988 temperatures had no connection with GW or CO2.
pp. 1,401-1,405. Shows climate trends not explained by CO2 trends.
43. Idso S., 1988: "GH Warming or Little Ice Age Demise?" THEORET APPL.
ean air bill, that the
17. Solow, A.R., 1988: "Detecting Changes Through Time" J. CLIMATE, pp.
CLMATOL #39, pp. 54-56. Shows modest warming trend of 20th century likely
W is working well and
290-296. Regression tests show unreliability of GCM models.
due to climbing out of Little Ice Age cold.
new benefits in the
18. Bradley, R.S., et al., 1987: "Precipitation Fluctuations over N.H. Land Areas
44. Wood, FB Jr.: 1988 The Need For Systems Research on Global Climate
Since mid-19th Century." SCIENCE #237, pp. 171-175. Shows while temperatures
Change." SYSTEMS RES. #5, pp. 225-240. Shows component compartmen-
posal. It is common
changed little, precipitation has increased over all agricultural latitudes.
talization approach on GCMs is inappropriate and may lead to inaccurate fore-
it without that pro-
19. Scotto, J., et. al. 1988: "Biologically effective ultraviolet radiation: Surface
casts.
measurements in the U.S." SCIENCE #239, pp. 762-764. Shows UV-B radiation
45. Green, K., et al. 1977: "Field Response of Photosynthesis to CO2 En-
uld be no new Clean
decreasing over the United States. contrary to ozone-hole scare.
hancement" ECOLOGY #58, pp. 687-692. Shows how CO2 protects forests from
20. Idso, S.B., 1984: "Empirical Evaluation of Earth's Surface Temperature in
SO2 (acid rain) deposition.
the president not
Response to Radiative Forcing." ARCH. MET. GEOPHYS. BIOCLIM SER B., #
46. Carlson, R W., et al., 1982: "Photosynthetic and growth response to fumigation
34, pp. 1-19. Shows future warming will be far. far below model projections.
with SO2 at elevated CO2." OECOLOGIA #54, pp. 50-54. Shows CO2 protects
ant Republicans last
Accurately predicted current model revisions.
plants from SO2 deposition.
:r Byrd Amendment
21. Ellsaesser, H.W., 1984: The Climatic Effect of CO2" ATMOS. ENVIR J. #18.
47. Bryson, Reid, 1988: "Civilization and Rapid Climatic Change" ENVIR. CON-
sed. It only failed by
pp. 431-434. Shows that deep convection over tropical latitudes will limit warming
SERV. #15. pp. 7-15. A thorough debunking of the predictive power of the GCMs.
far below projections.
48. Grotch, S., 1988: "Regional Intercomparisons of GCM Predictions and Histor-
a 2-to-1 majority of
22. Schlesinger. M.E., et al., 1987: "Climate Model Simulations of Equilibrium
ical Climate Data." U.S. Energy Department Conference. Shows that models do
ing for it.
Response to Increased CO2." REV GEOPHYS. #25, pp. 760-798. Shows Drastic
not agree, nor can they explain recent climate cycles.
:hat Mr. Bush and his
inconsistencies between various GCM models.
49. Slingo, A., and Slingo, G.M. 1988: "Response of GCM to Cloud Long-Wave
23. Henderson-Sellers B., 1987: "Modeling Sea Surface Temperatures
Radiative Forcing." QUART J. ROY MET. SOC. #114, pp. 1,027-1,062. Shows
ded to ignore science
CLIM.CHG. J. #11, pp. 349-359. Shows more realistic appraisal of ocean-current
cloud effects are completely ignored or misunderstood in GCMs.
:he economy for the
dynamics can cut warming by factor of 3.
50. Bryant E.A., 1987: "Climate warming, rising sea level and retreating coastline,
n air. This is almost
24. Henderson-Sellers, B., et al., 1988: "Tropical Deforestation and Climate
review and critique." AUSTRIAN GEOGRAPHY #18, pp. 101-113. Finds claimed
Change" CLIM. CHG. #13, pp. 43-67. Shows GCMs do not account for human
sea-level rise neither confirmed or confirmable. Shows major areas where levels
it the Democrats in
impacts on Earth's surface.
are falling.
Bush Library Photocopy
Preservation
Document Originally
Attached to
Following Page
geohal file Change
other Lebanese-based gunslingers, Syrian soldiers do
not usually wear masks.) Second, the Detroit Free Press is
November 6-7. Bush said he thought Reilly should
owned by Knight-Ridder, not by Scripps-Howard, as
attend. So Reilly went. He didn't get to invite the world
asserted by TRB last week. Third, the fine print at the
to a conference in the United States, but he did officially
bottom of last week's table of contents page misstated
endorse limits on greenhouse gas emissions. A month
the issue number as 25. It should have read: "Vol. 201,
later at the Malta summit, Bush announced the interna-
Number 26." Fourth, the headline on this item should
tional conference in the United States next year to draft
be "Four Corrections."
a treaty on global climate change. "We've now wrapped
it up in a big bear hug," Reilly says.
Reilly is as clever an inside operator as you'll find in
ADIES' CHOICE:
the Bush Administration. That's surprising because his
background is environmental (he headed a small think
Black Women Reluctant to Join Pro-Choice Forces
tank, the Conservation Foundation, for 17 years), not
-Los Angeles Times, November 27, page Al
political. On issue after issue he's swayed Bush and got-
ten his way. But what makes Reilly unique in an Admin-
ABORTION: Blacks' Pro-Choice Role Increases
istration with relatively little infighting is the passionate
-same paper, same day, same story
feelings he generates, particularly when he raises the is-
sue of global warming. Reilly, 49, has serious énemies.
OLLY, ARE YOU SURE?:
Warsaw Pact Losing
O
ne is Richard Darman, the budget director. He
and Reilly clashed in policy debates over Bush's
clean air bill last spring. Darman argued for less
rigorous environmental regulations than the
Its Edge, Sources Say
costly ones advocated by Reilly. Later Darman was en-
-Washington Post, December 2, page A21
raged by accounts of their disagreement-faulty ac-
counts, he thought-in the Wall Street Journal and New
York Times. He blamed Reilly, who'd taken notes at
meetings, for leaking. Last August he wrote Reilly to say
WHITE HOUSE WATCH
he'd no longer do any business with him. Darman skips
White House meetings attended by Reilly.
On global warming, Darman's concerns are shared by
other White House aides. They believe Reilly lacks the
GREEN THUMB
background in science, mathematics, or quantitative
modeling to grasp the issue. "All of the predictions on
global warming turn on theories of mathematics or
modeling," says one official. "Reilly" doesn't under-
stand them." As a test, Darman once asked Reilly about
By Fred Barnes
"chaos theory." Reilly had never heard of it (John Su-
nunu, the White House chief of staff, had). A more
n October 20 William K. Reilly, administrator
significant complaint involves policy. Darman, econom-
O
of the Environmental Protection Agency, was
ic adviser Michael Boskin, and others think Reilly is
rebuffed by the White House Domestic Policy
pushing for economically ruinous restrictions to reme-
Council. Reilly wanted to participate in a No-
dy an exaggerated problem.
vember meeting in Holland and announce that the
Sununu is not a foe of Reilly's, but he has doubts
United States would host a conference next year on
about the projections of dire consequences from global
global warming. No way, said the council (which con-
warming. "We're in a situation where the rhetoric has
sists of representatives of seven Cabinet departments,
gotten out front of the sciences," says a Sununu aide.
plus the EPA, the Office of Management and Budget,
"The more apocalyptic the forecast, the better." Sunu-
and White House aides). Not only that, but Reilly
nu keeps up with scientific literature on global warm-
shouldn't even attend, council members said. His pres-
ing. D. Allan Bromley, Bush's science adviser, feeds him
ence would only encourage others to show up. He'd
articles from science journals. One article circulated at
legitimize a meeting of environmental dreamers who
the White House said that rather than a global tempera-
advocate overly stringent curbs on greenhouse gases,
ture increase of nine degrees over the next 50 years, as
the source of global warming.
some scientists have predicted, an increase of one de-
Reilly was chagrined but hardly immobilized. Four
gree over 30 years can be expected. Because projec-
days later he and his wife went to the Kennedy Center
tions vary so widely, Sununu says, "We're not ready to
with President Bush and the First Lady. They sat in the
play the game of you-bet-the-world-economy. We're
Presidential box to watch A Few Good Men starring Tom
not ready to make big, big decisions."
Hulce. As the two couples chatted, Reilly broached the
Science advisers normally lack clout, but Bromley, a
subject of the meeting in Noordwijk, Netherlands, on
physicist from Yale, is a key figure in global warming
policy. He got to know Bush when he served on Rea-
JANUARY 1, 1990 THE NEW REPUBLIC 11
gan's White House Science Council. In 1987 Bush trav-
rassed at international gatherings. It needs a position,
eled to Yale to dedicate Bromley's new laboratory. Like
and Reilly offers one. Last winter Reilly grappled with
Sununu, Bromley wants to move on global warming,
the White House on CFCs, the chemicals that cause
but slowly. He doesn't dispute the greenhouse effect
deterioration of the ozone layer. "The White House
(nor does Darman). "There is no major difference
was determined to work the issue methodically through
[among scientists] in the general contention that if we
the Domestic Policy Council process," says a Reilly
continue to put greenhouse gases in the air at the same
aide. Reilly insisted he should announce at a London
rate we are now, we'll eventually experience global
conference in March that the United States would cut
warming," he says. Bromley wants more data. He talks
out CFC use entirely. Bush agreed. Absent the London
excitedly about the White House meeting next spring
meeting, the issue would probably still be under
of scientific, environmental, and economic experts on
discussion.
climate change. The experts will "get to know each
In May Reilly was scheduled to attend a global warm-
other" and "improve the analytic tools," Bromley says.
ing conference in Geneva. Again, the administration
Until he accompanied Reilly to the Netherlands
needed a position. Reilly urged Bush to embrace the
meeting, Bromley was assumed to be wary of Reilly.
concept of negotiations for international rules to cope
Bromley, after all, had presided over the DPC session at
with climate change. Again, Bush agreed. In a state-
which Reilly was urged not to go to Holland. His oppo-
ment, Bush backed "formal negotiations on the estab-
sition, Bromley now says, was based on fear that the
lishment of a framework convention on global climate."
Netherlands meeting would overshadow the work of
Sununu sent a cable to the American mission in Gene-
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The
va. "We should seek to develop full international con-
United States is active in the panel's studies on global
sensus on necessary steps to prepare for a formal treaty
warming. Once it was clear the meeting wouldn't com-
negotiating process," he said. Then there was Noord-
pete with the IPCC, Bromley became an enthusiast. At
wijk, for which Reilly got the commitment to restrict
one point he called Sununu from Holland to chat about
greenhouse gas emissions. And finally Malta, at which
the resolution on stabilizing greenhouse gases. "If we
the plan to host a treaty conference was unveiled.
did anything smart," says a Reilly aide, "it was inviting
Smooth as Reilly is, there's a soft spot in his perfor-
Dr. Bromley to Noordwijk. That's when his education
mance. He gets too much credit, Bush too little. Bush
began."
really wants to be known as the "environmental Presi-
The anti-Reilly faction believes Bromley is now less
dent." Instead, he's known as the President with an ar-
skeptical about the threat of global warming. Bromley
dent environmentalist at the EPA. That's not the same.
told the Lost Angeles Times that the White House shift-
One reason the DPC blocked Reilly's bid to announce
from balking at a proposal to host a treaty-writing con-
the U.S. role as conference host next year was that offi-
ference on global warming to Bush's proposing just
cials wanted Bush to announce it. He did, but Reilly got
that at Malta-was based on fresh scientific knowledge.
more coverage for having been rebuffed. "That's symp-
"We know a lot more now than we knew even a few
tomatic of Reilly's biggest problem: he's obsessed with
months ago," he said. This drew laughs at the White
p.r.," says a Bush aide. Good press is fine. If it comes at
House. "The only advance was in Bromley's educa-
the President's expense, it's mighty risky.
tion," says a White House official. "He's just getting up
to speed." Whatever happened, Reilly sees Bromley as
a budding ally.
East Germans get some payback.
eilly's success is all the more amazing because
R
he has so few allies, even counting Bromley. On
global climate change, the only senior official to
side with him is Secretary of State James Baker.
This paid off at Malta. Robert Zoellick, a Baker aide,
was one of the officials who drafted Bush's proposals
MARXED MEN
for the summit. In White House talks about the Malta
agenda, the environment was scarcely mentioned. But
when the White House issued a list of 21 proposals that
By Robert Darnton
Bush made to Mikhail Gorbachev, two were Reilly-
inspired: the conference next fall "to negotiate a frame-
BERLIN
work treaty on global climate change," and the White
Can East Germany find a "third way" between capital-
House meeting next spring "to discuss global climate
ism and socialism? The question was laid squarely on
change issues." On hearing the news, an aided rushed
the table at the Institute for Advanced Study in Berlin,
to tell Reilly. He already knew. "I've been talking to
and around it gathered a group of social scientists, the
Zoellick all along," he said.
first East-West meeting of its kind since the opening of
In shaping Bush's environmental policy, Reilly is
the Wall on November 9, and probably the first since
skillful in exploiting action-forcing events, mostly meet-
the Wall went up 28 years ago. The chairman intro-
ings. The administration doesn't want to be embar-
duced the East Berliners as members of "what I believe
12 THE NEW REPUBLIC JANUARY 1, 1990
file
Document Originally
Attached to
Following Page
Activity in the other direction includes
visits to the Soviet Union, under the same
Global Warming:
program, by a half-dozen American sociolo-
gy lecturers. Among them are Neil Smelser
of the University of California at Berkeley
Blaming the Sun
and Kohn of Johns Hopkins, who will be
going to Moscow in December. Soviet uni-
versities are also soliciting American Ful-
bright lecturers.
A report that essentially wishes away greenhouse warming is said
Kohn adds that Cornell University has
to be having a major influence on White House policy
made a unique arrangement with Igor Kon,
the Soviet Union's leading expert on U.S.
sociology, who will have a 2-week-per-year
A SLIM, UNREFEREED REPORT that many
the report as a political document. Nearly 6
visiting professorship. Kon, says Kohn, has
scientists have dismissed as biased and mis-
months after its release, he is still arguing
managed to keep abreast of the field while
leading is said to be at least partly behind the
about the report's scientific basis with Nier-
working at an institute in Leningrad-main-
White House's recent temporizing on cli-
enberg, via letters.
ly by obtaining review copies of American
mate change.
"Noisy junk science," says Jerry Mahlman,
books. He cleverly managed to convey the
And that is causing consternation among
director of the National Oceanic and Atmo-
meat of the scholarship by beginning and
climatologists and other greenhouse experts,
spheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid
ending his reviews with "Marxist diatribes,"
who are dismayed that this 35-page docu-
Dynamics Laboratory, where one of the
savs Kohn. So knowledgeable is the Soviet
ment by the George C. Marshall Institute, a
major greenhouse models was developed.
sociologist that when he came to the ASA
Washington, D.C., think tank-rather than
A number of other respected climate re-
convention in August 1988, he was able to
one of the massive, carefully researched and
searchers have suggested that the National
identify the main accomplishments of every
reviewed expert reports of the past several
Academy of Sciences review the study. The
author to whom he was introduced.
years-seems to be holding sway in the
Academy is likely to weigh into the ruckus
Kohn has also been involved in initiating
upper echelons of the Administration.
in some way-a couple of committees are
a series of joint conferences, which have
The report, "Scientific Perspectives on the
looking at the report-though it will stop
been in the planning stage since before
Greenhouse Problem," is by three promi-
short of giving the document a formal re-
Gorbachev took over. IREX and the ASA
nent scientists-William
view.
are supplying funds to support five U.S.-
A. Nierenberg, director
At the Environmental
Soviet conferences that are being held alter-
emeritus of Scripps Insti-
Protection Agency, Alan
nately in the United States and the Soviet
tution of Oceanography;
Hecht, deputy assistant
Union. The first, in 1987, was a conference
Robert Jastrow, founder
administrator in the office
on sociology and the psychology of work,
and former director of the
of international activities,
held in Vilnius. This December there will be
Goddard Institute for
says he has "real problems"
a conference in Moscow on public opinion
Space Studies; and Freder-
with the study and recently
research.
ick Seitz, president emeri-
passed a critique of it onto
All this cross-fertilization-indeed, the
tus of Rockefeller Univer-
EPA administrator Wil-
blossoming Soviet interest in sociology gen-
sity and past president of
liam K. Reilly. As part of
erally-is regarded as good news both for
the National Academy of
this informal review,
the discipline and for U.S. Sovietologists in
Sciences. The trio's other
Hecht asked Schneider for
particular. Shelley notes that "academic po-
major foray into public
Scripps
his comments on the re-
sitions for sociologists trained in Soviet
policy was a vigorous de-
port; Schneider's less-
studies have gone unfilled in recent years"
fense of the Strategic De-
High-level proponent. Wil-
than-flattering letter is
and expects that to change.
fense Initiative a few years
liam Nierenberg, one of the authors,
now circulating in the sci-
Further, William V. D'Antonio, head of
ago.
briefed White House officials.
entific community and on
the ASA, says he hopes eventually to see
Summing up the abun-
Capitol Hill, where Sena-
U.S. students doing graduate work in the
dant uncertainties that surround greenhouse
tor Albert Gore (D-TN), for one, is con-
Soviet Union.
models and predictions, the authors say it is
cerned.
For its part, the ASA is looking toward
too soon to take any actions to reduce
The report does have its scientific sup-
bringing over another crop of Soviet stu-
greenhouse gases. And by their reckoning,
porters, including meteorologists like Je-
dents next year, this time including political
there is little need to. They argue that there
rome Namias of Scripps, and Richard Lind-
scientists and economists, with the coopera-
is no evidence that the modest temperature
zen and Reginald Newell of Massachusetts
tion of the American Political Science Asso-
rise of 0.5°C that has occurred this century is
Institute of Technology-distinguished sci-
ciation and the American Economics Associ-
correlated with emissions of greenhouse
entists whose major work is largely outside
ation. "Soviets are acknowledging that
gases, and they predict that decreased solar
the greenhouse field. On 23 September,
American sociology is where it's at," says
activity in the next century will lead to a
Lindzen and Namias wrote to President
D'Antonio. Shelley agrees. She reports that
cooling trend likely to offset any greenhouse
Bush extolling the merits of the Marshall
the United States-where sociology is a
warming. All of this is couched in ample
report and citing its conclusion that "current
heavily quantitative field-was chosen as the
caveats, but the underlying message is that
forecasts of global warming for the 21st
destination for the 17 students because
the entire problem has been overblown.
century are so inaccurate and fraught with
"French sociology is seen as too qualitative
Several scientists are up in arms. Steve
uncertainty as to be useless to policy-mak-
and German sociology too philosophical."
Schneider of the National Center for Atmo-
ers."
CONSTANCE HOLDEN
spheric Research, for one, has denounced
The message apparently has gotten
992
SCIENCE, VOL. 246
through, if not to Bush then to his
experts Jastrow consulted in writing
chief of staff John Sununu, who, it is
the report. "Bob Jastrow would call
widely believed, is quite taken with
me at work and at home on Saturday
the report. Says Schneider: "Sununu
and Sunday. I would say 'No, no,
is holding the report up like a cross
you can't make that prediction.' I was
to a vampire, fending off greenhouse
shocked when I saw what came out."
warming."
Jastrow says the emphasis his col-
Just what impact the report has
leagues are putting on the solar vari-
had on Administration policy is diffi-
ability discussion is a "distorted"
cult to pin down, and Sununu's office
reading of the report, maintaining,
is mum on the subject. But it has
along with Nierenberg, that the solar
been widely reported that Sununu
tried to block EPA head Reilly from
Jay Dickman
variation hypothesis is just a minor
part of their argument.
attending an international meeting
"Then why did they put it in?"
on climate change at The Hague in
Leading opponent. A critique of the report by climatologist
snaps a senior Academy official.
early November. At that meeting, the
Stephen Schneider has been widely circulated.
Their bottom line, Jastrow insists,
United States refused to commit it-
is simply that no scientific conclusion
self to cutting emissions of carbon dioxide.
stead, they look for natural causes to explain
can be drawn about the future greenhouse
Nierenberg, for his part, has been work-
the rise and find that solar variation mirrors
warming, "and we have time to find out."
ing hard to get the message into the White
it rather well. The authors' underlying as-
They assert that with $100 million for su-
House. He personally briefed senior Admin-
sumption is that if they can break the con-
percomputers, answers to these questions
istration staff, including representatives
nection between that 0.5°C rise and accu-
will be forthcoming in 3 to 5 years, so why
from the White House Office of Cabinet
mulating greenhouse gases, then all bets for
not wait before taking precipitous policy
Affairs, the White House Office of Policy
future warming are off.
action?
Development, the Council of Economic Ad-
No such luck, says Schneider, who thinks
"No one in his right mind would say
visers, and the Office of Management and
they are setting up a straw man. "Could the
that," counters Hecht at EPA, who, along
Budget.
sun have done it? Sure," he says, adding that
with everyone else Science spoke with, savs it
"I was impressed with the report," says
a variety of natural phenomena could ex-
will take a decade or more to address these
Juanita Duggan, special assistant to the
plain the temperature rise of the last century.
questions.
President in the cabinet affairs office. "Ev-
But that, he adds, says nothing about the
In 25 years, Mahlman adds, "Congress
eryone has read it. Everyone takes it serious-
future greenhouse warming.
will still be asking us questions we can't
lv. We have a coherent policy in the federal
"There are uncertainties, but I can't think
answer. I don't care if you pour $100 billion
government that is not inconsistent with the
of any combination of them that could
at the problem."
Marshall Institute report."
conspire to make the problem go away,"
The biggest gripe people have with the
"It is well worth listening to," adds Paul
says NOAA's Mahlman. Hypotheses are
report is that the authors, in summoning
Roelling, a senior analyst in the White
fine, he adds, "but to advise the White
uncertainty to their cause, fail to acknowl-
House Office of Policy Development. "They
House on the basis of this type of argument?
edge that it cuts both ways. Explains
are eminent scientists. I was impressed."
Give me a break. That is not responsible."
Schneider: "What we don't know is just as
But White House Science Adviser D.
The reason people are worried about
likely to make it worse as better."
Allan Bromley, who was not yet in place
greenhouse warming, Schneider, Mahlman,
Solar variability is a case in point.
when the report was released, seems to be
and others say, is not because of the 0.5°C
Schneider offers a counter scenario to that in
distancing himself from it. "It has a distin-
temperature rise during the past century but
the Marshall Institute report: That during
guished group of authors, but there is no
because emissions of carbon dioxide, chloro-
the past 100 years, solar energy output was
general consensus on the details and it has
fluorocarbons, and methane are clearly in-
decreasing rather that increasing. And with-
not been peer-reviewed," he said in a state-
creasing. And it is dead certain that if
out that natural cooling, which masked the
ment to Science.
enough of these greenhouse gases are re-
greenhouse signal, the earth's temperature
All the critics concede that the first part of
leased into the atmosphere, where they trap
would have warmed up twice as much. "It's
the report is a good description of the
heat, global temperatures will rise. The only
pure speculation," he adds, but since no one
scientific uncertainties surrounding predic-
question is how much, and by when.
really knows what the sun was doing 100
tions of greenhouse warming. And every-
Then the Marshall Institute pulls out an-
years back, "it is just as likely as theirs."
one, not surprisingly, agrees with the re-
other card. After analyzing the historical
Moreover, says Schneider, if the earth
port's plea for $100 million for more re-
record of solar activity, which can be in-
warms up 2° to 4°C, as models usually
search.
ferred from carbon-14 in tree rings, the
predict, "it will swamp anything the sun has
Where the report veers from the main-
authors predict that solar activity will de-
done in the past 100 years."
stream is with the assertion that the warm-
crease in the next century, leading to a mini
John Perry, a meteorologist and staff di-
ing trend of the past century was probably
Ice Age that will offset any greenhouse
rector of the Board of Atmospheric Sciences
caused by increased solar activity and not by
warming.
and Climate at the National Research Coun-
an accumulation of greenhouse gases-and
Preposterous, say solar physicists like
cil, agrees. "If the report had just said, in an
that, ipso facto, the greenhouse warming
John Eddy of the University Corporation
evenhanded way, 'don't rely on the models
next century will be small, perhaps 1°C.
for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, who
because there are hellacious uncertainties,'
The basis of the report is an analysis of
calls their extrapolation "very shaky" at best.
we all would have applauded. But the way it
this 0.5°C warming trend, which, the au-
We simply don't have the ability to predict
comes across is that all the uncertainties are
thors point out, does not follow the curve of
future solar activity, he says.
on the downside. I don't think that is very
rising emissions of greenhouse gases. In-
Curiously, Eddy was one of the sunspot
democratic."
LESLIE ROBERTS
24 NOVEMBER 1989
NEWS & COMMENT 993
glohal file yearming
Document Originally
Attached to
Following Page
arm summit climate yields
talk of environmental treaty
WASHINGTON (CSM) - Buried
among the ideas President George
Bush offered Soviet Chairman Mik.
hail Gorbachev in Malta was a
proposal to begin negotiating a trea-
ty next fall to deal with the warming
of the global climate.
It marks the strongest White
House commitment to international
action yet.
The White House has been arguing
for months that it is a leading world
force for dealing with global warm-
ing, although it has been cast in the
role of dragging feet.
This week, the White House
strengthened its case.
The president's science adviser, D.
Allan Bromley, in a speech Tuesday,
predicted an international frame-
work convention - which sets the
terms of a treaty - within the next
18 months.
Bush also used the proposals to
Gorbachev to announce an interna-
tional meeting this spring of the
senior science, economic and envi-
AP photo
ronmental officials of what Bromley
Mikhail Gorbachev and George Bush reach to clasp hands as they met
calls "a large number of the world's
Dec. 2. A treaty to deal with global warming was among the topics the
nations."
two discussed during their summit.
The purpose of this meeting is to
put together the world's leading
a significant greenhouse effect, says
lands, led the resistance to a Dutch-
policymakers on the issue to decide
Warren Washington of the National
backed agreement to freeze carbon
how to use the best available exper-
Center for Atmospheric Research.
Washington discussed his research
dioxide emissions by the year 2000.
tise on global warming, its effects
and its costs.
with Sununu recently by telephone.
Critics, including some Republican
The White House has been hesitant
"I don't think you can put Sununa
senators, accused the administration
to take strong policy action against
in the camp (that believes) it's flaky
of stymieing urgently needed action
global warming without a better
or based on bad science," he says.
while Europe took the lead.
understanding of how serious the
Bromley, who has been in the
The White House response is that
problem is and what the responses
White House less than two months,
it has been committed to action -
will cost the economy.
is the administration's lead official
but through the United Nations spon-
The most prominent skeptic has
on climate change. His own view is
sored Intergovernmental Panel on
been chief of staff John Sununu, an
that the United States should not
Climate Change. The IPCC offers a
MIT-trained engineer.
wait for more technical knowledge
methodical, deliberate process for
One administration official, how.
before taking many actions - "in
forming policy. Its three working
ever, says that White House offi-
effect as an insurance policy against
groups are also headed by the Unit-
cials, including Sununu, are open-
the possible effects of global warm-
ed States, the Soviet Union and
minded on the issue and that many
ing."
Britain - three of the more conserv-
positions are changing as familiarity
Criticism of the Bush administra-
ative nations in global warming poli-
grows with the science of global
tion for excessive caution was in-
cy.
warming. Sununu is at least not
tense last month. The U.S.
among the most skeptical - those
The final reports of the IPCC
delegation to a meeting on global
who see no substantial suggestion of
working groups are due in Novem-
warming in Noordwjik, the Nether-
ber 1990.
DEC 11 '89 10:46
LAB
OSHA
PAGE. 02
0159
A DIGEST OF NEWS FROM MIT
MIT Reporter
Gauging long-term temperature change
since 1856, when the marine data begin.
Has the Globe
required more analysis. First, Newell,
This may be caused by the 22-year solar
Really Warmed?
Hsiung, and Wu needed to measure the
magnetic cycle, during which the sun's
cooling caused when volcanoes inject dust
magnetic held changes polarity and then
Since the mid-nineteenth century, mer-
and gases into the atmosphere. They dis-
returns to its original state. The magnetic
chant-marine captains of all nations have
covered an intriguing piece of work that
cycle is reflected in changing sunspor pat-
been required to log air and water tem-
measures the atmospheric "turbidity"
terms. When the authors subtract from the
peratures every six hours for weather ser-
from the dust over the past century. Be-
basic temperature record all cycles of less
vices such as the British Meteorological
ginning in the late 1800s, weather stations
than 26 years-the chief one being this 22-
Office. Crews on each watch have hauled
have used devices known as Campbell-
year warming-and-cooling pattern-they
water from the sea in standard buckets,
Stokes sunshine recorders that burn a
find "no appreciable difference" between
dipped in standard thermometers, re-
track in a paper card each day, indicating
temperatures in 1856 and 1986.
corded the data, and, generally, radioed it
how long the sun was up. Researchers at
Both studies are at odds with some other
back. The result is an incredible store-
the University of Mainz in West Germany
research. For example, using land data
house of information about global tem-
collected and analyzed numerous such
that attempt to factor out effects of ur-
peratures since the Industrial Revolution.
cards, noting particularly the beginning
banization, James Hansen of NASA God-
Reginald E. Newell, Jane Hsiung, and
and end of the burn, which correspond to
dard Space Flight Center and Sergej
Wu Zhongxiang of MIT, along with col-
sunrise and sunset. Whenever atmospheric
Lebedeff of Sigma Data Services Corp.
leagues from the "British Met," as they
turbidity rose, the burn started later and
conclude that the globe has warmed 0.5°C
call it, have collected and analyzed these
ended earlier. The weather station in
to 0.7°C over the past century.
data. MIT Press intends to publish them
Sonnblick, Austria, almost unaffected by
The conflict is far from resolved. Un-
in the Global Ocean Surface Temperature
urban pollution at an elevation of 3 kil-
fortunately, despite all the models of how
Atlas. One of the most striking results sug-
ometers in the Alps, provides a record of
global climate may change, there is rela-
gested by the data is that there appears to
turbidity back to 1887.
tively little funding for research on the ac.
have been little or no global warming over
Newell, Hsiung, and Wu also assessed
tual record. A case in point: though the
the past century.
the periodic change in tropical tempera-
Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas
The advantage of ocean readings is that
tures caused by the El Niño-Southern Os.
has passed peer review and been accepted
they are not contaminated by urbaniza-
cillation, a complex of ocean and air
by MIT Press, so far no sponsor has been
non: the growth of structures and roads
currents. Factoring out the effects of the
willing to provide the modest subsidy that
even in the small towns where many
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the
such a technical book often requires for
weather stations are located can raise tem-
cooling caused by volcanos, they found
publication-in this case $60,000.
peratures, Newell explains. Unfortu-
that global temperatures have warmed by
nately, ocean readings are not entirely
only 0.2°C over the past century, which is
reliable either. One of the chief problems
within the estimated margin of error. In
is that prior to World War II, the buckets
other words, the results leave open the
The Global
air temperature
possibility that there has been no warming
Ocean Surface
(red line) since
for collecting water were made of canvas.
Temperature At.
1856. Research-
As it was hauled onto the deck, the water
at all.
les, accepted for
ers who have
could be cooled by wind and heated by,
In a paper based on the same data in
publication by
analyzed the
sun. Christopher Folland of the British
Geophysical Research Letters, Nicholas E.
MIT Press, in-
data conclude
Newell (Reginald Newell's son) joins the
cludes this chart
that there has
Meteorological Office and Jane Hsiung at.
pletting the sea
been little or no
tempted to correct for such problems, for
other researchers to examine a third tem-
surface tempera-
overall warming.
example by measuring the cooling of the
perature variation: a roughly 22-year cycle
ture (blue line)
buckets at different wind speeds.
of warming and cooling that has occurred
and night marine
1.0
BEGNEE C
0
-1.0
1870
1880
1890
1800
1810
1820
1930
1040
1950
1980
1870
1980
No Global Warming Signs Spotted
WASHINGTON, March 29 (AP) -
able" in the global warming debate,
Data from weather satellites show no
temperature deviations detected by
and he agreed that 10 years is too short
ground-based thermometers.
evidence of global warming in the
a period to determine a climate trend.
1980's, scientists say, but it will take at
What is important from the study,
Temperature Rises Detected
least another decade of measurements
said Dr. Barron, is that it proves stud-
Dr. Spencer said the data detected a
to draw a firm conclusion.
ies by satellites eventually may settle
The data, collected from 1979
sharp rise in Pacific Ocean tempera-
the controversy.
through 1988 by the Tiros-N series of
ture in 1983 and 1987, years when the
Dr. Christy and Dr. Spencer spent
weather phenomenon El Niño was in
weather satellites, proved that the
two years analyzing old weather satel-
play. These events had been detected
earth's temperature can be measured
lite records to come up with the decade
and analyzed by other instruments.
accurately by instruments probing the
of temperature measurements.
atmosphere from space, two scientists
The Tiros data also detected a cooling
The scientists used data from Tiros
say in a paper to be published on Fri-
in the tropics from 1984 to 1986, and a
instruments that measure microwave
"warm event" in the northern hemi-
day in the journal Science.
radiation caused by heating of the first
sphere during 1987 and 1988.
"We found that the earth's atmos-
six miles of atmosphere above the
phere goes through fairly large year-
On a global basis, the study found,
earth's surface. Accuracy of the data
to-year changes in temperature and
the warmest years, in descending or-
was verified by instrument calibra-
der, were 1987, 1988, 1983 and 1980. The
over that 10-year period we saw no
tions and by comparing it with known
coolest years were 1984, 1985 and 1986.
long-term warming or cooling trend,"
said Roy W. Spencer of the Marshall
Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.
Dr. Spencer's co-investigator, John
R. Christy of the University of Ala-
Scientist in 'Cold Fusion' Project
bama at Huntsville, said that there
were temperature swings "that can be
quite dramatic" during the decade, but
Reasserts Claim and Is Disputed
that on a global basis, the thermal
changes tended to even out.
By WILLIAM J. BROAD
A Net Effect of Zero
Special to The New York Times
"The northern hemisphere goes up
SALT LAKE CITY, March 29 - In
Cold Fusion Institute, a nonprofit cor-
slightly during those 10 years and the
his first appearance at an open scien-
poration founded by the University of
southern hemisphere goes down slight-
tific meeting in many months, a scien-
Utah that is sponsoring the conference.
ly," said Dr. Christy. "The net effect
tist who claimed to have achieved
But in opening the program, Dr. Will
for the globe is basically zero."
"cold fusion" presented no new data to-
also alluded to dashed hopes that the
Detecting a climate trend, the scien-
day that would be likely to persuade
table-top apparatus unveiled a year
tists said, will take at least another dec-
skeptics that the disputed findings
ago could rapidly evolve into a font of
ade of satellite measurements.
were real.
nearly limitless energy and profit.
The researcher, Dr. B. Stanley Pons,
"What was originally believed to be
"There is no guarantee that if you
chairman of the University of Utah
simple experiments that could be read-
take a 10-year segment out of a long
chemistry department, said at the
ily reproduced in other laboratories,"
time that you'll get the overall trend,"
meeting here that he had observed ex-
he said, "turned out to be complex phe-
said Dr. Christy. "The data cannot be
cess heat from a simple table-top ap-
nomena that defied confirmation in
used to say we've got an enhanced
paratus and suggested that commer-
many laboratories and which cannot be
greenhouse effect." He said that the
cial applications of the process were
explained on the basis of classical nu-
findings "are enough to tantalize us,
possible.
clear physics."
but this is just a start" and that satel-
But his heat-measuring methods
Dr. Will estimated that 40 to 50 re-
lite measurements are continuing.
came under attack during a discussion
searchers in the United States were
session, and Dr. Pons avoided a de-
still actively working on cold fusion re-
The new data is the first on global
tailed reply.
search, 20 of them at the institute.
temperatures from satellites to enter
Two hundred or SO believers in cold
the scientific debate about the green-
fusion, curious onlookers and skeptics
Heat Attributed to Fusion
house effect, Dr. Spencer said. Most
gathered for a three-day conference
other studies of temperature trends,
marking the first anniversary of the
In their announcement a year ago,
some extending over more than a cen-
Dr. Pons and Dr. Fleischmann said
announcement by Dr. Pons and Dr.
tury, have come from the records of
they had used a test tube fitted with
Martin Fleischmann, of the University
ground-based thermometers. These
palladium electrodes and filled with
of Southampton in England, that they
readings, he said, do not fully reflect
had achieved fusion in a simple table-
heavy water. An electric current was
the global temperature because there
then passed through the electrochemi-
top apparatus at room temperature.
are very few temperature measure-
Nuclear fusion is the force that
cal cell, causing excess heat that was
ments for vast areas of the earth's
attributed to nuclear fusion.
powers the sun, the stars and hydrogen
oceans.
bombs, fusing atoms together rather
Such a process could revolutionize
than breaking them apart, as nuclear
Debate Focuses on Measurement
the world's production of energy, if it
reactors do. The process frees vast
could generate great heat. But hun-
Some experts say the earth is begin-
amounts of energy, but usually re-
dreds of scientists failed to duplicate
ning to warm as a result of carbon
quires temperatures of millions of de-
the Pons-Fleischmann process. In a re-
dioxide and other gases dumped into
grees to get started. The controlled re-
port today in the journal Nature, for ex-
the atmosphere over the last 150 years
lease of "hot" fusion in huge machines
ample, Dr. Michael H. Salamon of the
of industrial civilization. This warm-
of vast complexity has eluded scien-
University of Utah and colleagues re-
ing, the enhanced greenhouse effect, is
tists for decades.
ported that they had measured no nu-
a matter of controversy in the scien-
Although the cold fusion field has
clear byproducts from Dr. Pons's and
tific community because of the diffi-
been ridiculed and scorned by many
Dr. Fleischmann's own equipment.
culty in measuring small climate
scientists, and its ranks have thinned
trends over a long period of time.
considerably, enthusiasts here contend
Today Dr. Pons outlined in some de-
that prejudice is blinding many re-
tail his team's work at measuring heat
Eric J. Barron, director of the Earth
searchers to the work's merit.
produced by the electrochemical cells,
System Science Center at Pennsylva-
"The possible technological implica-
asserting that excess heat was gener-
nia State University, said the analysis
tions were, and are, enormous," said
ated by "a large number" of palladium
of the Tiros data by Dr. Spencer and
Dr. Fritz G. Will, head of the National
electrodes.
A26 FRIDAY, MARCH 30, 1990
THE WASHINGTON POST
Satellites Find No Evidence of Global Warming
Associated Press
year-to-year changes in tempera-
have been the warmest decade on
SALE 49.99
ture and over that 10-year period
record but also do not show a
Ten years of temperature meas-
we saw no long-term warming or
strong warming trend within the
SAVE 30% ON
urements by weather satellites
cooling trend," said Roy W. Spencer
decade.
have failed to find any evidence of
dexter MAXWELL.
of the Marshall Space Flight Center
Detecting a climate trend from
global warming from the green-
in Huntsville, Ala.
space, the scientists said, will take
Kiltie tie boat shoe with waxy leather
house effect, scientists said in a re-
Spencer's co-investigator, John
at least another decade of satellite
upper on a leather sole. Available in
port published today, but they
R. Christy of the University of Al-
measurements.
added it will take at least another
tan or fudge. (D.157) Orig. $72
abama, Huntsville, said there were
"There is no guarantee that if you
decade of measurements to draw a
temperature swings "that can be
take a 10-year segment out of a
A different selection at each store, Available at
firm conclusion.
quite dramatic" during the decade,
long time, that you'll get the overall
Metro Center, Tysons Comer, Montgomery Mall,
The data, collected from 1979
but, on a global basis, the thermal
trend," said Christy. "The data can-
Landmark, Ballston, Fair Oaks, Lakeforest,
through 1988 by the TIROS-N
changes tended to even out.
not be used to say we've got an en-
Landover, Marlow Heights, Prince Georges,
weather satellites, proved that the
"The northern hemisphere goes
hanced greenhouse effect."
Wheaton.
atmosphere's temperature can be
up slightly during those 10 years
Christy said the findings "are
measured accurately by instru-
and the southern hemisphere goes
enough to tantalize us. but this is
ments probing from space, two sci-
down slightly," said Christy. "The
just a start" and satellite measure-
entists say in a paper in the journal
net effect for the globe is basically
ments are continuing.
Science.
zero."
"By the turn of the century, we
We found that the Earth's at-
Conventional temperature meas-
should see a trend," said the scien-1
mosphere goes through fairly large
urements have found the 1980s to
tist.
HECHT'S
ESPECIALLY FOR YOU!
HAGGAR WARDROBE SALE
SAVE 25% ON SUIT SEPARATES, SPORTCOATS, BLAZERS AND DRESS
Document Originally
Attached to
Following Page
goral change
The Washington Times
COMMENTARY
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 5, 1990
three of UC's most prominent can-
Furthermore, a growing share of
WARREN
cer researchers - Dr. Bruce Ames,
funding is going to environmental
Dr. Lois Gold and Tom Jukes - who
research, which itself is conditional
BROOKES
told the world what food toxicol-
upon the perspective of the re-
ogists universally understand: Pesti-
searcher, which is to say anti-
cide residues on food have a biologi-
growth, anti-technology. For exam-
Study in
cal risk of zero, and Big Green was
ple, if you are a climatologist who is
the legislative equivalent of the Alar
skeptical of the claims of global
scam.
warming, you won't get any part of
But all three of these top re-
the $1 billion the United States will
political
searchers have been savaged for
spend on climate change research
their outspoken stands. Drs. Ames
this year. Worse, if you do get the
and Gold, who finally were recog-
grants and your research fails to
nized by Science magazine and the
support the policy thesis, you face
science
National Academy for their re-
non-renewal, and even difficulty in
search that blows away the premises
getting your research published, let
of rodent testing, now are under at-
alone used.
tack by researchers who are funded
Congress spent $540 million hav-
to do such tests.
ing 700 of the nation's best environ-
First of three articles.
This ugly episode demonstrates
mental scientists, agronomists,
n June 25, 1990, David Pier-
why scientists like Dr. Ames now be-
water and soil chemists. study the
O
pont Gardner, president
lieve that one of America's most po-
relationships between sulfur diox-
of the University of Cali-
tent assets, its massive lead in basic
ide deposition (in acid rain) on
fornia, received a warning
science and technology, now is being
plants, trees and lakes. When their
letter from Albert Meyerhoff of the
threatened by politics, which is not
report failed to support the presi-
Natural Resources Defense Council.
only misallocating scientific re-
dent's and the environmentalists'
The NRDC authored the Alar scam
sources but is undermining the
policy prescriptions, they simply
of 1989, and its members were the
credibility of the profession.
were ignored - or worse, abused.
main promoters of the Big Green
The overwhelming share of funds
When the Centers for Disease
initiative to ban all pesticides, de-
for scientific research now come
Control studies of dioxin agreed
feated 2-1 on Nov. 6.
from government - federal and
with research around the world that
Mr. Meyerhoff had learned the
state. This means the direction and
shows it could not have caused can-
university's agriculture department
scope of scientific effort is increas-
cer in Vietnam veterans, the Veter-
was preparing a study of the Big
ingly shaped by the political agenda
ans Administration and Congress
Green's impacts on state agricul-
of the country.
simply paid off those whose average
ture. He implied that, because the
In the past. this meant a tendency
dioxin concentrations are the same
University of California is "a recipi-
to put too much money into defense
as the nation's.
ent of both federal and state funds"
and space, and perhaps to skew too
When case after case of alleged
and because "courts have consis-
much into cancer and not enough
illness due to atomic testing fallout
tently held that public funds may not
into less-popular disease issues. Yet
was thrown out of court because
be used
to influence legislative
on balance, those distortions did not
they could not survive the expert
campaigns," the university could
in any significant way slow the re-
testimony of scientists from the Na-
find itself in court.
lentless tide of U.S. scientific explo-
tional Academy of Sciences and the
A meeting between NRDC and
ration but reinforced it.
National Cancer Institute. Congress
Mr. Gardner was followed by an Aug.
But now the political agenda has
simply declared 200,000 people vic-
9 memorandum of understanding.
changed, from unrestrained pursuit
tims whose average exposure was
The university agreed to conditions
of technological breakthroughs, to
barely above natural background.
on this research ensuring that the
environmentalism and a Luddite
Yet, when scientists do try to
anti-pesticide viewpoint (no matter
fear of new science, technology and
challenge this nonsense in public,
how frivolous) was equally pre-
growth, itself. Where chemical and
they are immediately attacked as
sented.
biological scientists once were sa-
"shills for industry." even when their
Mr. Gardner received a simulta-
luted for quadrupling U.S. agricul-
research was publicly funded. To
neous threatening letter from State
tural productivity, they now are un-
make sure they know where their
Sen. Nicholas Petris and Assembly-
der research attack for allegedly
political bread is buttered, there is a
man Robert Campbell. The letter
poisoning our food and water chain.
none-too-subtle war being waged to
said, "We strongly urge you to recon-
Where geniuses of biogenetics once
make all private (that is to say non-
sider this research project." The let-
were promising breakthroughs in
political) funding of research too
ter added ominously, "It is evident
everything from agriculture to
suspect to be accepted by academic
that we are entering a period of aus-
medicine, they now are facing boy-
or research institutions.
terity in which various institutions
cotts from ice cream makers and
will be asked to eliminate programs."
dairy state politicians and kooky eco-
Fortunately, there are signs that
Two weeks later, Kenneth Farrell,
gadflys like Jeremy Rifkin, and have
the science community now recog-
University of California vice pres-
to hold conferences like the one this
nizes the threat of this growing po-
ident for agriculture, discouraged
week to defend their research meth-
litical censorship and funds misallo-
faculty members from publishing
ods. (See tomorrow's column on bo-
cation and is fighting back.
their findings. A compromise was
vine sematropin.)
They see a Clean Air Act that will
finally reached, and in late October
spend nearly five times as much per
a carefully worded research paper
year pursuing a few hundred theo-
by three faculty members warned
retical cancer risks as the nation
that a pesticide ban could have seri-
spends for its entire health research
ous consequences for the state's food
budget on 1 million premature
industry, but made no mention of
deaths. Rules are routinely made
Proposition 128.
that cost $400 million per single can-
While the UC agriculture depart-
cer risk avoided. The total budget of
ment was almost silenced. Big
the National Cancer Institute is $1.8
Green took its biggest hits from
billion for 500,000 deaths.
They see all this, and they wonder
see BROOKES, page G4
what the president's estimable sci-
ence adviser, Alan Bromley, and
White House Chief of Staff John
Sununu, himself a first-rate scien-
tist, will do about it, because I have
a hunch scientists would really like
to help. In the meantime, they have
to take the eco-freaks seriously, be-
cause the press and the administra-
tion still do, even as the public in-
creasingly and clearly does not.
EPA backs new plan to halt global warming
point" and is merely one of a number
crease of 4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit
Unlike previous proposals, the
By Joyce Price
of response options being consid-
during the next century. Warming,
new plan does not single out carbon
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
ered.
they say, could upset climate pat-
dioxide for proposed controls. In-
The Environmental Protection
An EPA official, who asked not to
terns, turning "breadbasket" farm-
stead, it calls for establishment of an
Agency says it "fully supports" a
be identified, said, "the ideas in this
ing areas into deserts. It could also
overall performance goal or "glo-
proposal that would take a market
proposal reflect input from a variety
melt polar ice, flooding coastlines.
bal warming potential index" and
approach to global warming and
of agencies and clearly reflect over-
But there also are many experts
it would be up to each nation to de-
give nations flexibility in deciding
all administration policy."
who either reject the global warm-
cide how to meet it. In setting an
how to control greenhouse gases.
The plan was drafted by Assistant
ing theory outright or say that
index, all resources that affect glo-
The plan, prepared by a subcom-
Attorney General Richard Stewart,
warming, if there is any, won't
bal warming would be considered.
mittee of the Domestic Policy Coun-
who is an environmental lawyer. The
amount to much.
1
cil Working Group on global change,
EPA, the State Department and
Patrick J. Michael, a professor of
The concept also includes provi-
sions for "international trading" of
would not set mandatory reduction
White House science advisory staff
environmental sciences at the Uni-
levels for emissions of carbon diox-
also were involved, the official said.
versity of Virginia, said, "it appears
global warming liabilities
("sources") and assets ("sinks").
ide and other fossil fuels. Instead, it
The official acknowledged there
they are predicting too much warm-
would allow nations to buy and sell
were other global warming propos-
ing. I feel there's a large body of
Columnist Warren Brookes wrote:
emission rights, provided the trans-
als before the IPCC, but said this
evidence that is, perhaps, being ig-
"The United States might be willing
actions kept them within overall glo-
plan was the primary focus. He said
nored in the arguments for drastic
to pay Brazil for preserving the
bal warming performance stan-
he expected it to be discussed exten-
action."
Amazon rain forests [warming re-
dards, which would be set for each
sively at an IPCC conference to be
Because there's so much uncer-
ducers] and use those 'sink credits'
country and the world.
held in Washington next month.
tainty about global warming, some
to allow more carbon dioxide emis-
"It's a very creative approach and
Ambassador Peter de Vos, a
top administrative officials, includ-
sions from the United States."
we're very enthusiastic about it,"
deputy assistant secretary of State
ing White House Chief of Staff John
John S. Perry of the National
said EPA spokesman Dave Cohen.
who is knowledgeable about the
Sununu, have opposed some coun-
Academy of Sciences said the trad-
"With this plan, you can still get re-
plan, said, "It's an idea many peo-
tries' calls for a 20 percent cut in
ductions in emissions. But it offers
1988 carbon dioxide production lev-
ing concept is similar to a program
ple feel has possibilities as a way of
offered by the EPA that allows indus-
flexibility you might not get under a
achieving our goals."
els. Excess carbon dioxide, pro-
tries in some regions to barter air
more rigid plan."
In the greenhouse effect, the at-
duced by burning petroleum, coal
The plan recently was submitted
mosphere traps some sunlight in the
and natural gas, is responsible for 50
pollution emission rights.
to the Intergovernmental Panel on
form of heat, rather than letting it all
percent of the atmospheric pollution
"The idea seems to work reason-
Climate Control, an international
escape into space. With build up in
that traps solar radiation and con-
ably well in that context," he said.
group that will make recommenda-
the atmosphere of certain gases,
tributes to atmospheric warming.
"But can you transplant this idea to
tions about what nations should do to
such as carbon dioxide, methane,
"Mr. Sununu's concern has been
an international environment,
reduce potential problems of global
and chlorofluorocarbons, more heat
that the computer models used to
where political situations and issues
warming.
is trapped.
make these global warming fore-
of national sovereignty are quite dif
Allan D. Bromley, White House
Some scientists predict that if in-
casts have not been scientifically
ferent? And could you really specify
science advisor and chairman of the
dustrial production and fossil fuel
tested to the point of making trillion-
exchange rates for different tyr,
working group, said the proposal "is
use continue at current levels, it will
dollar decisions," Sununu spokes-
emissions as accurately as WOL
not part of any formal policy at this
result in a global temperature in-
man Ed Rogers said.
necessary?"
Assuming 'Global Warming' Exists
Benefits of Worldwide Warmup Far Outweigh Risks
By WARREN T. BROOKES
In February, President Bush took
now be weighed against the positive
warming will take place at high lati-
heat for not telling the Intergovern-
benefits of a warmer. moister climate
tudes at night. That lengthens the
mental Panel on Climate Change what
(should warming even occur) with higher
growing season without risk of evap-
he would do to stop global warming.
levels of carbon dioxide, one of Earth's
oration or more drought."
Yet last September 11 to Septem-
most powerful fertilizing agents.
The Soviet Union's internationally
ber 14, an Intergovernmental Panel on
In his exhaustively documented book,
renowned climatologist Mikhail
Climate Change workshop of world-
Carbon Dioxide and Global Change,
Budyko argues that carbon-dioxide
class agronomists, geologists and envi-
Agriculture Department research phys-
doubling will bring "an Eden" and
ronmental scientists meeting at Cool-
icist Sherwood Idso writes, "As a re-
shouldn't be stopped. The Coolfont
font (Berkeley Springs, W.Va.) con-
sult of well over a thousand labora-
workshop confirms his argument.
cluded the benefits of warming, should
tory and field experiments, scientists
Climatologist emeritus Robert Pease
it even occur, far outweigh its costs.
have known that increasing the carbon-
of University of California at Riverside
(An IPCC panel in Finland said the
dioxide content of the air around a
wrote in the Wall Street Journal the
same.)
plant's leaves nearly always leads to a
The U.S. panel assumed the carbon-
significant increase in vegetative
other day, "The higher temperatures
combined with more carbon dioxide
dioxide level in the atmosphere would
growth and development.
will favor crop and plant growth and
double by 2050 and raise temperatures
"In the mean, [these experiments]
could well provide more food for our
by 2 degrees Celsius. (See Table.) Even
suggest that a 330 to 600 parts per mil-
burgeoning global population.
so, using sophisticated models from
lion doubling of the air's carbon-
The Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
"Geologic history reveals warmer
the National Oceanographic and Atmo-
dioxide content will increase plant
mate Change report would be an excel-
spheric Administration and the Agri-
productivity by about one-third, while
global temperatures produce more, not
lent addition to President Bush's inves.
less, precipitation, a fact reflected by
tigation of "global warming."
recent scientific investigation that
The Effects of Doubled
and returns to conditions much
shows the Greenland icecap to be
Carbon Dioxide by 2050
closer to those characteristics of the
thickening, not melting.
Earth at the time when the basic prop-
"Why then are the evangelists of
Temp.
Food
Water
Forestry
Forestry
Shoreline
erties of plant process were originally
environmentalism so frantic because
rise
prod.
resources
urea
volume
COSIS
established."
Country
(degrees)
(percent)
President Bush suggested we investi-
(percent)
(percent)
(percent)
(billion $)
United States
As biologist Boyd Strain noted
gate global warming further before we
2.5
+15
+9
+5
+ 10
25
Soviet Union
3.0
+40
recently, "We are moving from a
close down our factories and power
- I
- 10
+20
I
EEC
3.0
+20
+6
+2
carbon-starved back to a carbon-
+ 10
25
plants? The question deserves an an-
China
2.5
+ 20
-1
+1
-0
5
fertilized world."
swer." Indeed, it does.
Australia
2.5
+25
+15
+0
+0
2
Idso says, "The increasing carbon-
But Mr. Bush won't get it from his
Brazil
2.0
+15
+17
-2
-3
3
dioxide content of the Earth's atmo-
own White House Task Force on
Source: Climate Impact Response Functions, report of a workshop held at Coolfont, W.Va..
sphere is like a breath of fresh air for
Global Change, whose first draft uses
Sept. 11-14, 1989. auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
the planet's close-to-suffocating vege-
the Environmental Protection Agen.
tation." It may explain a confounding
cy's ludicrous assumptions of massive
rise in food output the last 40 years.
declines in U.S. crop yields and forest
Another reason is that so far in the
volumes.
culture Department, the panel found
Northern Hemisphere the only
Mr. Bush had better tell his science
reducing plant [water use] by approx-
this climate change would:
"warming" trend has been in night-
adviser Allan Bromley to get the Cool
imately the same amount."
time lows, while daytime highs have in
font Intergovernmental Panel on
Increase total U.S. food output 15
As a result, Idso argues, "The whole
fact fallen since 1940. Virginia's cli-
Climate Change report and then thank.
per cent more than the natural trend, a
face of the planet will likely be radically
matologist Patrick Michaels points
his Chief of Staff John Sununu for
present value of $12 billion per year.
transformed-rejuvenated as it were-
out, "The new climate model run at
keeping him from making a really had
Increase total U.S. water re-
as the atmosphere carbon-dioxide con-
the National Center for Atmospheric
mistake.
sources by about 9 per cent, worth $30
tent reverses its long history of decline
Research now predicts the majority of
Creators Sendare
billion to $50 billion per year at current
water prices.
Increase total U.S. forest volume
10 per cent or 80 billion cubic feet, with
theoretical stumpage value of more
than $500 billion.
Against such benefits, the scientists
assigned a total cost of $25 billion per
year of losing or protecting our shore-
lines against a 20-inch rise in sea level.
That number is supported by Yale
economist William Nordhaus in a
paper for the National Academy of
Sciences' climate change panel, which
puts the "net economic damage" at a
tiny 0.25 per cent of gross national pro-
duct, or $13 billion per year.
The net benefits of global warming
would be equally big for the Soviet
Union, China, Europe, Australia and
South America. What's more, these
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change cost estimates were made
before scientists at the American Geo-
physical Union last December cut fore-
casts of sea-level rise from global
warming from four feet to only one
foot.
That rapidly declining danger must
16 / Human Events / MARCH 24, 1990
"CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING"
TYPE:
Action Item
DOCUMENT NUMBER: 8920473
FROM:
Stephen I. Danzansky
Director of Cabinet Affairs
TO:
Bromley
DATE OF
CORRESPONDENCE: 11/20/89
SUBJECT: Global Warming: science, economics, environment
ASSIGNED TO: Nancy Maynard
ACTION REQUIRED: Acknowledge
SENDER'S DUE DATE:
OSTP DUE DATE:
12/11/89
DATE COMPLETED:
COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley
JUDY BOSTOCK
NEOB files
REMARKS:
DATE RECEIVED: 11/22/89
FILE: OEOB
THE WHITE HOUSE,
WASHINGTON
November 20, 1989
MEMORANDUM FOR ALAN BROMLEY
FROM:
STEPHEN I. DANZANSKY
Director of Cabinet Affairs
SUBJECT:
Global Warming: science, economics, environment
The enclosed': is the latest of several recent articles
beginning to focus upon the cost/benefit/science of the global
climate change issue. It is becoming clear that despite the
short-term public relations deficit created by our braking action
at the Noordwijk meeting, the Working Group's insistence that
research and analysis catch up with political rhetoric and one-
upsmanship is beginning to pay some dividends in terms of the
public's awareness of the complexity of the issue.
SS
43
BEDEIAED
RECEIVED
89 NOV 22 All : 43
OFFICE OF THE
DIRECTOR
HONEY
18
THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 1989
Economic Watch
Staggering Cost Is Foreseen
Steep Cost Seen on Curbing Earth's Warming
Sources of the Smothering Gases
is a whopping $50 billion a year.
Figures for 1989
To Curb Warming of Earth
Continued From Page I
Could the cure be
Other studies suggest that this most
optimistic Manne-Richels scenario is
The Gases Creating the
Where They Come From
bons, are also byproducts of modern
worse than the
too optimistic. William Nordhaus, an
Greenhouse Effect
civilization, and are being spewed out
Percent of gases contributing to the greenhouse effect
economist at Yale University, pegs the
By PETER PASSELL
faster than the biosphere can neutral-
disease?
from each economic activity.
cost of containing carbon emissions to
World political leaders may be rush-
may eventually prove to be a cost-ef-
ize their effects. It is now generally if
1990 levels at 1 percent to 2 percent of
ing to broad accord on the urgent need
fective means of coping with the green-
not universally believed that a result-
national income by the middle of the
to halt global warming. But since the
house effect. But in the near term, most
ing warming effect is overwhelming
next century. A study in progress by
mid-1980's, economists have been wor-
economists conclude, a major effort to
natural processes that tend to cool the
to break the link between energy pro-
the Congressional Budget Office is re-
limit carbon effluent makes little eco-
atmosphere.
duction and fossil fuels proved possi-
portedly yielding numbers in the same
Agriculture
rying about the bill. Their misgivings
21.2%
How fast the greenhouse gases are
ble, consumers could muddle through
have been deepened by recent estl-
nomic sense unless it can be justified
range.
mates of the cost of limiting emissions
heating the air is not known. Neither
for a while by switching to natural gas,
High cost alone need not rule out ac-
on grounds of energy security or tax
which delivers 70 percent more energy
tion, of course, if the alternative is
Carbon
Energy
of carbon dioxide, which is the primary
revenue.
the heating effect nor the accumulation
per pound of carbon effluent. But the
catastrophe. The mere possibility that
dioxide
56.2%
cause of the problem.
Overwhelmed Natural Processes
of carbon dioxide in the air is thought to
carbon limit begins to bite deeply
the greenhouse effect could lead to
49%
Chlorofluorocarbon
Refrigeration,
Economic analysts do not speak with
have direct effects on human health.
around the year 2010.
greater climatic changes in the next
Scientists have long understood that
14%
cooling
one voice on the issue. But all recent
But there is at least a chance that an-
With cheap supplies of gas exhaust-
100 years than those experienced in the
certain trace-gases in the atmosphere
15%
studies, including those carried out by
other century or perhaps less of un-
efficiently trap solar energy and heat
ed, the model estimates that a twenty-
previous 10,000 might be expected to
environmentalisss, implicitly share one
checked accumulation would melt
fold increase in the price of coal would
give even the most detached bean-
conclusion: unless it proves remark-
the planet. Some are naturally
polar ice and alter weather patterns,
be needed to force sufficient changes
counters cause to lose sleep.
ably easy to adapt technologies that
produced. But many, notably carbon
But according to Thomas Schelling,
Nitrous
Natural causes
leading to coastal flooding and radical
toward energy conservation. Annual
Other
dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocar-
losses in output would reach about 5
an economist at the Kennedy School of
Oxide
6.5%
drastically cut the need for oil, natural
changes in land fertility patterns.
Government at Harvard, such projec-
13%
gas and coal, the price of correcting the
Continued on Page 18, Column
percent of national income, or about
6%
Industry
For many environmental advocates,
$500 billion, in the year 2030.
tions can be misleading. While climate
carbon dioxide problem will run to Hril-
1%
those who believe in the ethical obliga-
has not changed rapidly in the last cen-
lions of dollars through the next cen-
tion to pass on the biosphere intact to
Optimists, including the economist
tury, both the will and technological
tury.
Irving Mintzer of the World Resources
ability to adapt to radically different
Sources: "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Analysis for the U.S.A. Alan S. Manne, Stanford University and Richard G. Richels,
future generations, the policy message
Electrical Power Research Institute (gases); The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect,' William D. Nordhaus, Yale University.
By one pessimistic but not Implausi-
is clear and simple: move quickly to
Institute, argue that technological inno-
weather obviously has. In 1860, he says,
through the M.I.T Center for Energy Policy Resaarch (economic activity)
ble estimate, the United States' annual
2 percent of Americans lived outside
reduce the production of carbon diox-
vations might sharply cut these costs.
cost of holding the line on carbon diox-
And the computer model bears him
temperate or subtropical zones. By
ide, which accounts for about half the
ide production could rival the current
out. Some reasonably priced way of
1980, the percentage had increased to
greenhouse effect.
pects, will depend as much or more on
trapping smokestack carbon would re-
22 percent:
at minimum cost. Electric utilities
level of military spending.
the endowment of technology and capi-
Trillions of
Using Fear to Get Action
might, for example, buy the right to
Economists also agree that the bene-
duce the economic impact by one-
Adjusting to Climate Changes
tal as on the percentage of carbon diox-
emit carbon from existing emitters, or
The cause has drawn support from
tenth.
fits of reducing carbon dioxide are sure
While changes in rainfall, tempera-
ide in the air. And If money to contain
diverse interests who share what
A low-cost source of electricity from
ture and sea level could be dramatic,
carbon emissions comes out of other In-
dollars may have
plant a sufficient number of trees to ab-
to vary greatly from place to place.
sorb an equivalent amount of carbon
David Harrison of the National Eco-
non-carbon fuels, providing solar, nu-
there is yet no reason to believe that
vestment, future civilizations could be
That will make It difficult for countries
nomic Research Associates consulting
clear or geothermal energy, would
the process would be completed too
the losers.
to be spent.
effluent.
Mr. Nordhaus offers a different ra-
to develop a consensus for a collective
firm, calls "the Christmas tree view.'
trim it further. Technical change that
quickly to allow evolutionary re-
This hardly means that the green-
tionale for action soon. The potential
response to the problem.
These groups hope to use greenhouse
increased the efficiency of energy use
sponses expanding irrigation, for ex-
house effect can be safely ignored. But
damage from the greenhouse effect
Carbon dioxide and other pollutants
worries as a lever for everything from
for the entire economy by 1 percent
ample, or building dikes. The cost of
it does Imply that It should be viewed
has not been pinned down yet, he con-
trap infrared radiation from the sun in
promoting nuclear power to tightening
each year at low cost would do yet
growing food might conceivably rise by
as a problem in balancing costs against
bia, would lose much of their national
cludes; but some damage is almost
automobile mileage regulations.
more.
20 percent, Mr. Schelling speculates.
benefits. And here, crude initial esti-
the earth's atmosphere, in much the
income in a successful attempt to curb
certainly being done. And any sensible
same way a greenhouse works.
Drop in American Incomes
But this loss, he argues, is almost cer-
mates suggest that for the next half-
the use of fossil fuels.
approach to balancing costs and bene-
Some effort to curb carbon dioxide
This month, all 68 nations taking part
tain to be overwhelmed by a century's
century or more it may be cheapest to
The costs of carbon conservation
fits in the future will almost certainly
in a high-level conference in the Neth-
But even the happy circumstance of
worth of improvements in seed strains
deal with the effects of global warming
would vary enormously. China, for ex-
involve a limited attempt to control
erlands agreed that carbon dioxide
technological victories on every front
and growing techniques.
rather than the causes.
ample, is counting on its rich supplies
greenhouse gas emissions, along with
emissions would have to be stabilized.
would still permanently reduce Amer-
By the same logic, Mr. Schelling
For example, according to the Envi-
of coal to develop with limited depend-
parallel efforts to sequestor carbon
Only objections from the United
ican incomes by about 1 percent, ac-
says, the appealing idea of bequeathing
ronmental Protection Agency, the cost
ence on imported energy and capital.
and mitigate the effects of global
States, the Soviet Union and Japan pre-
cording to the Manne-Richels model.
the biosphere intact seems arbitrary.
of protecting America's coastal cities
against a three-foot rise in sea level
Yet without a broad, enforceable
warming.
vented the conference from endorsing
And I percent in a $5 trillion economy
The quality of life in 100 years, he sus-
a goal of cutting emissions to 1988
would be $73 billion to $111 billion, a lot
agreement on containing carbon, ex-
A Financial Incentive
of money but not so much compared
penditures by individual countries
levels by the year 2000. But William
A modest tax on greenhouse gases,
Curbing Pollution: Three Price Tags
with the likely cost of prevention.
would not pay off. Lester Lave, an
Nitze, a State Department official coor-
economist at Carnegie-Mellon Univer-
one targeted at heavily damaging
dinating Bush Administration policy,
A doubling of atmospheric carbon
chlorofluorocarbons as well as carbon
dioxide, likely to occur by the middle of
sity, argues that an early commitment
acknowledges there is now heavy diplo-
Projections of the cost of limiting carbon emissions through the year
the next century if output is not con-
by the United States to tough carbon
dioxide, would thus be very likely to in-
matic pressure for an accord next
crease economic efficiency: it. would
2100 as a cumulative lump sum, or present-value figure
standards could lead to the worst of
year.
strained, would dramatically reduce
both worlds. "We pay attention to trea-
also give emitters a financial incentive
yields for some crops in some regions.
to search for alternative carbon-free
Simulations by Computer
Scenarlo
(Pessimistic)
$3.6 trillion
But according to a 1989 study by three
ties," he says. But big carbon emitters
technologies. And it could provide bil-
Greenhouse politics have yet to be in-
Agriculture Department economists,
like China and the Soviet Union might
lions in taxes to offset the Federal defi-
fluenced by sober economic analysis,
No practical way to shift to clean energy technologies; no automatic
the net losses would be less than one-
ignore their obligations, undermining
cit.
however. And while environmental
increase in economy energy efficiency
tenth of 1 percent of income in indus-
the whole logic of collective action."
Virtually all economists seem to
groups would generally be inclined to
trial countries. Argentina and Aus-
Such considerations lead many
agree on the need to get beyond what
draw different lessons from a new util-
tralia would actually be economic win-
economists, including Mr. Lave, to
Mr. Lave calls the 'Earth Day come
ty-financed simulation by Alan Manne
Scenarlo II
$1.8 trillion
ners, since the likely fall in yields
counsel waiting until more is known be-
back" syndrome. The symbol of green-
of Stanford University and Richard
would be smaller than the increases in
fore trying to devise preventative
house effect, they argue, cannot be al-
Richels of the Electric Power Re-
world prices.
measures. Dan Dudek, an economist
lowed to obscure the dimensions of the
search Institute, almost everyone
Automatic energy-efficient adjustment of 1 percent per year.
agrees that the computer model does
Nations Most at Risk
for the Environmental Defense Fund,
perplexing, high-stakes problem that
draws a different conclusion. He wants
lies beneath.
Illustrate the potential cost dimensions
Scenarlo III
$800
billion
(Optimistic)
This illustrates a looming problem in
of carbon-dioxide containment.
to buy a modest amount of insurance
prevention strategies. The benefits
The Manne-Richels model compares
against the small possibility of a true
Cost-effective substitutes for fossil fuel energy available; 1 percent
from controlling greenhouse gases
hypothetical future of unconstrained
greenhouse effect disaster, some as yet
automatic efficiency adjustment per year
would be far greater in some countries
carbon dioxide output with one in
undiscovered ecological effect that is
than in others. Bangladesh, India and
Traveling?
which carbon emissions are limited to
Anelysis
for
the
the Netherlands are at great risk from
impossible to reverse.
Emission
Check the weather
the 1990 rate through 2000 and then
Alan S. Manne, Stanford University and
coastal flooding. But many countries
This is the time, he argues, to experi-
gradually cut by 20 percent.
Richard à Richels, Electrical Power Research Institute
would be able to expand farming Into
ment with flexible "emissions-trad-
from Albany to Acapulco.
Even if no technological adaptation
regions that are now too cold or too dry ing" systems that "Improve the menu
The New York Times
to support it. And a few. like Saudi Ara- of options" for slowing global warming
Projected Sea-Level Rise
Scaled Back by Scientists
Polar Ice Sheets Not Melting but Growing
Zwally and his colleagues at
Pilu
By William Booth
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Cen-
Washington Post Staff Writer
ter in Greenbelt used a pair of sat-
Sea-level rise in the next century
ellites to measure the elevation of
because of global warming is now
the Greenland ice sheet and sur-
expected to be far less drastic than
prised their colleagues by showing
previously believed, according to
that the snow and ice appear to be
THE WASHINGTON POST
scientists who have made new cal-
accumulating at the rate of about
culations based on the surprising
nine inches a year.
observation that the polar ice
"It was the first study of its kind
sheets are not melting, but growing
to use satellites to assess snow ac-
in size.
cumulation," said Zwally. "It is cer-
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1989
A rising ocean, with its attendant
tainly contributing to the feeling
flooding of coastal areas and river
that estimates of sea-level rise need
valleys, has been one of the most
to be revised downward."
feared consequences of global
Another study by Charles Bent-
warming. Many scientists expect
ley and coworkers at the Geophysi-
the Earth to warm by 4 to 6 de-
cal and Polar Research Center at
grees Fahrenheit in the next cen-
the University of Wisconsin at Mad-
tury because of an accumulation of
ison shows that ice and snow are
gases such as carbon dioxide and
also accumulating in Antarctica.
methane in the atmosphere. The
The concern for the health of the
gases trap heat and cause the
Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
"greenhouse effect."
is based on the enormous amount of
Scientists who are assessing the
water stored in these vast glaciers.
prospect of global warming and sea-
In the unlikely event that the entire
level change now believe that the
Greenland ice sheet melted and
oceans will rise by only 12 inches by
flowed into the ocean, sea levels
the year 2050. A previous study by
would rise by about 20 feet. If all of
the National Academy of Sciences
the Antarctic ice were to melt, seas
estimated that the seas would rise
would rise by 230 feet.
by more than three feet by the mid-
The observed accumulation of
dle of the next century. The margin
snow on the ice sheets may be
of error in each estimate was 12 to
caused by increased winter temper-
18 inches in either direction.
atures at the poles, say the scien-
"We are definitely scaling back
tists. As the temperature increases
our projections of sea-level rise,"
in those regions, so does precipita-
said Mark Meier of the Institute of
tion.
Arctic and Alpine Research at the
If temperatures increase in the
University of Colorado in Boulder.
future because of an enhanced
Meier organized a recent meeting
greenhouse effect, more snow
of scientists at the American Geo-
would be expected to fall on the ice
physical Union in San Francisco,
sheets. It is uncertain whether
where the consensus of the assem-
enough snow will fall in the winter
bled experts was that estimates
to compensate for the increased
needed to be reduced.
melting that would occur in the
The latest predictions for the rise
summertime, Meier said.
in sea level are based on new infor-
It appears that although the snow
mation about the accumulation of
would accumulate on the glaciers
ice and snow in Greenland and Ant-
early in the next century, continued
arctica-the Earth's two largest
warming later in the century might
areas of ice resting on land-and on
cause it to begin to melt off and
new calculations about the ability of
raise the sea level.
glaciers to take up their own melt-
The 12 inches of sea-level rise
water runoff and refreeze it.
that the experts are predicting for
A study published in today's issue
the year 2050 would come chiefly
of the journal Science shows that
from the expansion of the Earth's
the vast ice sheet of Greenland has
oceans, which, like most objects
actually been growing in the last
being heated, will swell as temper-
decade, not diminishing. H. Jay
atures increase.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22. 1989
THE WASHINGTON POST
Energy Dept. Awards
13 Clean-Coal Grants
Program to Fund Demonstration Projects
jor national commitment" to environ-
By Thomas W. Lippman
mentally sound energy and "an invest-
Washington Post Staff Writer
ment unmatched by any other na-
The Energy Department yesterday
tion." The department's goal, he said,
selected 13 energy companies and
is to demonstrate that energy use and
utilities in 10 states to receive $540
economic growth are not incompati-
million in federal funds for demonstra-
ble with a cleaner environment.
tion projects in the cleaner and more
Under the clean-coal technology
efficient use of coal.
program, private companies propose
The recipients and some of their
projects designed to reduce emis-
state governments will provide anoth-
sions, make more efficient use of U.S.
er $777 million for the "flagship pro-
coal, make financial sense and show
jects [that] represent environmentally
potential for widespread commercial
superior ways to use U.S. coal," Ener-
use. Projects selected by the Energy
gy Secretary James D. Watkins said.
Department are eligible for partial
"They are this country's best hope for
federal funding. Those announced
using its most abundant energy re-
yesterday bring the total for the first
source, coal, while preserving and im-
three rounds to 40.
proving the quality of our environ-
None of the awards announced yes-
ment."
terday is for a facility in the Washing-
Coal is abundant in the United
ton-Baltimore area. The nearest is at
States, which has 29 percent of the
the Seward Station power plant in
world's reserves, but emits air-pollut-
central Pennsylvania, where Bechtel
ing particles of sulfur dioxide and ni-
Corp. and Pennsylvania Electric Co.
trogen oxide when burned in conven-
will split with the Energy Department
tional furnaces. The Energy
the estimated $8.5 million cost of a
Department's Clean Coal Technology
complicated project that will use lime
Program, an outgrowth of the 1985
slurry to remove sulfur dioxide from
U.S.-Canada agreement on acid rain,
exhaust gases.
is an ambitious attempt to prime pri-
vate industry's research pump with
In the most expensive project, the
federal funds in a search for cleaner
department will pay $121.1 million of
and more efficient ways to use coal.
the projected $403.6 million cost of a
coal-fired power plant to be built in
The grants announced yesterday
Tallahassee, Fla., using a process that
are the third of five rounds of awards.
converts coal to a fuel gas, burns the
Overall, Watkins said, the projects
gas to drive a generator and uses the
will represent a commitment of $5
hot exhaust to produce steam to drive
billion to $6 billion in federal and pri-
a conventional steam-powered gener-
vate funds. Watkins called this a "ma-
ator.
THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1989
Key Gene in Immune Defenses Is Believed Found
By HAROLD M. SCHMECK
who heads the institute, will leave later
from advance texts. They said the gene
Scientists have discovered a gene
this vear to become president of
found by the Japanese is different from
that they believe is crucial in the devel-
Rockefeller University in New York.
the RAG-1 gene, but may be part of the
opment of the human immune de-
The scientists said they believe the
same complex recombination process.
fenses, possibly a central genetic
gene provides the blueprint for all or
The scientists do not yet know how the
switch for the process by which the
part of the enzyme that carries out the
two discoveries relate to each other.
body generates a wide array of protec-
shuffling of gene parts that gives rise
The Japanese scientists reported
tive antibodies.
to the diversity of antibodies. Or, they
that their gene is related to certain
The discovery is expected to throw
sav. It may serve as a regulatory gene
genes of bacteria, and they suggest in
important new light on the complex-
that switches on other genes vital to the
their report that it might have a long
ities of the immune system, which is
process.
history in the evolution of life.
vital to almost every aspect of human
In either case, the RAG-1 gene is be-
The scientists at the Whitehead Insti-
health and development. The discovery
may help scientists better understand
lieved to act on cells of the bone mar-
tute said that genes almost identical to
row that give rise to two types of cells
RAG-1 exist in rabbits, dogs, goats and
some genetic diseases in which the
body's defense systems fail. Experts
vital to the immune defenses: B cells,
horses and that a similar gene exists in
which are responsible for antibody pro-
species as far distant from the mam-
say that the research is important but
that it is far too early to tell what
duction, and T cells, which have many
mals as chickens and frogs. The impli-
practical applications may result.
functions in immunity. In the T cells
cation, the scientists said, is that it is
vital to many or all species that have
Scientists involved in the studies are
highly developed immune systems.
already testing patients who suffer
The scientists have found RAG-1
from genetic disorders in which im-
Research is
gene activity only in the progenitors of
mune defenses are lacking to see if any
B cells and T cells.
such immunodeficiency cases may be
The RAG-1 gene was discovered in a
linked to failures of the gene.
The normal immune system gener-
described as 'a
complex succession of experiments
conducted over several years. The key
ates an immense variety of antibody
finding came in experiments in which
types. These act as specialized weap-
very elegant piece
the gene was transplanted into fibro-
ons, attacking virtually every type of
of science.'
blasts, connective tissue cells, growing
infection or irritant to the immune sys-
in the laboratory. These cells do not
tem, natural or synthetic, that an indi-
usually engage in the genetic shuffling
vidual is likely to encounter. It is an ar-
that leads to the diversity of antibodies.
mory of prefabricated weapons
But the fibroblasts under the influence
against every conceivable invader.
specifically, the gene is thought to help
of a transplanted RAG-1 gene carried
Genetic Recombinations
generate diversity in the receptor
out that same kind of recombination of
This profusion of different antibody
through which the cell recognizes for-
gene parts. The scientists considered
eign substances.
types is known to be produced by a
that evidence the clearest proof that
complex genetic process in which parts
the RAG-1 gene was a key to the
'Elegant Piece of Science'
of genes are shuffled and recombined.
recombination process.
As a result, the immune system pro-
In a telephone interview, Dr. Fred-
In a telephone interview, Dr. Schatz
duces millions of cell clones, each capa-
erick W. Alt of Columbia University's
and Dr. Oettinger said the availability
ble of producing a unique variety of an-
College of Physicians and Surgeons,
of the RAG-1 gene may make it possi-
tibody.
described the research as "a very ele-
ble to reproduce in the laboratory the
The newly discovered gene is be-
gant piece of science."
main features of the process that gives
lieved to play an important role in that
A possibly related discovery was re-
rise to antibody diversity. This would
genetic recombination process. The
ported in Nature this week by a group
be valuable for study of immunity.
scientists have named the gene RAG-1
of Japanese scientists led by Dr.
"This is really a central aspect of the
for recombination activating gene.
Tasuku Honjo at Kyoto University. Dr.
development of B cells and T cells,"
The research is being reported today
Honjo's group discovered a gene that
Dr. Oettinger said of the genetic
in the journal Cell by Dr. David G.
they believe to be central to the genetic
recombination process.
Schatz, Dr. Marjorie A. Oettinger and
recombination process in bone marrow
Dr. David Baltimore of the Whitehead
cells.
Institute for Biomedical Research at
Dr. Alt and two colleagues at Colum-
the Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
bia published in Nature an analysis of
nology in Cambridge. Dr. Baltimore,
the research by both teams, working
A12 FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1989
THE WASHINGTON POST
Immune System's Controller Found, Scientists Say
Gene Allows Disease-Fighting Blood Cells to Recognize a Huge Variety of Germs
Associated Press
ogy," said Michael Lieber of Stan-
ers directly, looking for them with
Schatz compared the immune
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Dec. 21-
ford University. "It deals with the
distinctively shaped structures on
system to an automobile factory. In
basic way that our bodies make an-
their coats that are known as anti-
this analogy, RAG-1 is the assembly
Scientists think they have discov-
tibodies in the most fundamental
ered the master controller of the
gen receptors.
line worker who puts together the
sense."
The body constantly pumps out B
cars' engines.
immune system, a gene that allows
The researchers think that the
cells and T cells equipped with an
"This reaction is the very heart
disease-fighting blood cells to rec-
gene makes all or part of an enzyme
ever-changing assortment of these
of what makes the immune system
Cognize and remember an ever-
called recombinase, which cuts and
distinctive shapes. And each re-
changing and virtually unlimited
go," he said.
splices bits of DNA. These seg-
quires the work of a distinctive
number of different germs.
Schatz said it may soon be pos-
ments of old genes are assembled
gene. The body gets these genes by
The gene ceaselessly reshuffles
sible to watch and manipulate this
segments of genetic coding inside
into new genes, which dictate the
randomly piecing together scat-
assembly process in the test tube
structure of the infection-fighting
tered bits of DNA from throughout
newly made white blood cells. This
and someday even in the human
molecules called antibodies, which
the cell's genetic archives.
way the body can use a limited
body. One potential, though distant,
amount of genetic material, made of
are made by the blood's so-called B
Two years ago, Susumu Tone-
gawa of Japan was awarded a Nobel
application is in replenishing the
cells.
DNA, to concoct an endless assort-
Occasionally, an antibody encoun-
Prize for discovering that this shuf-
immune system cells ravaged by
ment of antibodies capable of zero-
ters a microbe with a spot on its
fling creates the diversity of anti-
AIDS.
ing in on bacteria, viruses and other
bodies.
The AIDS virus selectively seeks
surface that is a mirror image of the
disease-causing agents that it has
hever before encountered.
antibody. When this happens, the
"Since then, we have learned sur-
out and destroys a particular vari-
antibody latches onto this spot,
prisingly little" about how the body
ety of blood cells called helper T
The process is analogous to tak-
known as an antigen. This marks
achieves this rearrangement, said
cells. "Maybe in time we will be
ing a few standard pieces of an
the invader for destruction by other
Nobel laureate David Baltimore, a
able to specify the production of
Erector set or a Lego set and re-
soldiers in the immune system.
co-author of the latest work. "This
these particular cells," replacing
shuffling the combinations to make
Other components of the immune
is the first step toward finding a
those lost to the disease, Schatz
structures of many different
system, called T cells, attack invad-
chemical basis of diversity."
said.
shapes.
Researchers described the work
as an important discovery that
should greatly improve understand-
ing of how the body arms itself
against infection. Although it does
not immediately open up new ways
to treat disease, it may someday
allow medicine to fine tune the
body's weapons.
The gene-dubbed the recom-
bination activating gene (RAG-1)-
was discovered by David G. Schatz
and Marjorie Oettinger, graduate
students at the Whitehead Institute
for Biomedical Research. They de-
scribe their work in Friday's issue
of the journal Cell.
"It's one of the top 10 or 20 dis-
coveries in the history of immunol-
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1989
B3
Scientists Find Gene That Triggers
Formation of Different Antibodies
By DAVID STIPP
is activated by a single genetic master
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
switch, which they isolated and named re-
CAMBRIDGE. Mass.-Scientists here
combination activating gene No. 1, or
identified a gene that triggers the immune
RAG-1. The gene "is at the very heart of
system's formation of different antibodies.
what makes the immune system go." said
a milestone in immune research.
David G. Schatz, co-author of the study,
The finding sheds light on how the im-
which is reported in today's issue of the
mune system responds to a myriad of dif-
journal Cell. The researchers still don't
ferent invading microbes. which has been
know. however, whether RAG-1 triggers
"one of the great mysteries of biology."
gene-shuffling directly or acts through in-
said David Baltimore. a Nobel laureate
termediary genes.
who directed the research at the White-
But with RAG-1 in hand, researchers
head Institute of Biomedical Research.
can probe for gene recombination in differ-
which is affiliated with Massachusetts In-
ent tissues. Cells in the olfactory system.
stitute of Technology.
for example, may shuffle genes to create
While the discovery probably won't
many receptors for recognizing different
have near-term medical uses. the newly
odor molecules.
found gene provides a broadly useful tool
By blocking RAG-1, scientists may be
for studying immune functions in infec-
able to produce immune defects in animals
tious diseases and other disorders.
that would elucidate similar defects in hu-
The discovery concerns the process by
man diseases, said Marjorie A. Oettinger,
which immune cells make antibodies. Y-
another author of the study. The RAG-1
shaped molecules that float in the blood
finding also may help researchers devise
looking for foreign microbes. The prongs
better ways to bolster the immune system
of each antibody are shaped to fit a mole-
in diseases such as acquired immune defi-
cule on the surface of a specific invading
ciency syndrome.
microorganism. Once an antibody latches
Role of Protein in AIDS Virus
onto a microbe. it attracts other immune
molecules that destroy the invader.
Separately, researchers at the White-
head Institute and at Johns Hopkins Uni-
Previous Discoveries
versity reported that a previously discov-
The latest discovery builds on two pre-
ered protein made by the AIDS virus may
vious findings. In the 1970s. researchers
play an unexpected role in the disease's
discovered that immune cells called B
immune suppression.
cells combine a relatively small set of
The finding concerns the transactivator,
genes in different ways to create the ge-
or TAT gene, of the AIDS virus. Scientists
netic codes needed for millions of different
earlier discovered that it amplifies produc-
antibody shapes. More recently, scientists
tion of the AIDS virus within infected cells.
found that immune cells called T cells em-
In the latest finding, researchers found
ploy a similar gene-shuffling process to
that the protein made by the gene may
make antibody-like molecules. called re-
have a second. more direct damaging ef-
ceptors, that they use to recognize foreign
fect on the immune system.
invaders.
In test-tube studies, they showed that
Now the Whitehead researchers have
the protein lessened the ability of infection-
found that in both cases. the gene shuffling
fighting white blood cells to respond to in-
THANKS FOR THe GLOBAL
WARMING MESSAGE.
OMB
to
TESTIMONY SCIENTIFIC
ETC
SCIENCE
AND THE
CITIZEN
Not So Hot
creases in albedo caused by greater
New studies question
numbers of droplets might be large
enough to affect the global radiation
estimates of global warming
balance. Thomas M. L. Wigley of the
University of East Anglia in England
W
hen editors and newscasters
has even suggested that an increase in
routinely bandy about the
albedo in the Northern Hemisphere
term "global warming" with-
20 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
might explain why the warming trend
out bothering to explain it, then the
in this century has been smaller than
idea could be said to have entered the
24 PHYSICAL SCIENCES
was predicted by earlier and more
body of public knowledge, accepted by
28 MEDICINE
simplistic climate models.
most as immutable fact.
Patrick J. Michaels of the University
Yet the public's acceptance of global
30 PROFILE
of Virginia, a vocal critic of what he
warming caused by the greenhouse
sees as premature policy responses to
effect belies the fluid nature of the sci-
global warming, points out that stud-
ence. The conclusion that the buildup
only 1.9 degrees C, as opposed to the
ies by Thomas R. Karl of the Nation-
of carbon dioxide and other green-
5.2 degrees C predicted by a compara-
al Climatic Data Center in Asheville,
house gases might lead to catastroph-
ble model that does not distinguish
N.C., show that in the U.S. and Canada
ic warming of the earth's climate con-
between ice and water clouds.
during the period from 1941 to 1980
tinues to generate debate among sci-
The second model, described in Cli-
there was a marked decrease in the
entists. As investigators refine the
mate Dynamics by Warren M. Washing-
daily temperature range, attributable
computer models on which global cli-
ton and Gerald A. Meehl of the Nation-
mainly to an increase in nighttime and
mate projections are based, some esti-
al Center for Atmospheric Research in
early-morning temperatures. Michaels
mates of probable warming are being
Boulder, Colo., includes more sophis-
thinks the finding supports the no-
lowered. Moreover, new data suggest
ticated calculations of ocean circula-
tion that global cloud cover may be
that human activity may influence the
tion and heat exchange. Their findings
increasing. An increase in cloudiness
climate in ways that have previously
suggest that 30 years after an instan-
would increase nighttime tempera-
been neglected.
taneous doubling of carbon dioxide in
tures by trapping heat emitted by
Few climatologists doubt that the
the atmosphere (an admittedly unre-
the earth but decrease temperatures
rapid increase of trace gases in the
alistic scenario) the earth would have
during the day by increasing cloud
atmosphere resulting from human
warmed by only 1.6 degrees C, sub-
reflectance. According to Michaels,
activity will produce some warming,
stantially less than models with a sim-
the greenhouse effect might therefore
with potentially severe consequences.
pler ocean would predict.
be more benign than has been sup-
Estimates of how much and how soon
Human activity may also affect cli-
posed-or perhaps even beneficial.
are made with climate models run on
matic change in a way that has been
Growing seasons might be lengthened
supercomputers. Earlier models pro-
previously unrecognized. Analyses of
and the frequency of droughts re-
jected that global temperature would
satellite data suggest that sulfate aer-
duced. Michaels's views are not wide-
increase from three to 5.5 degrees Cel-
osols formed from pollutants (such as
ly shared: Kevin E. Trenberth of the
sius during the next century, but they
the sulfur dioxide that rises from ur-
National Center for Atmospheric Re-
included only crude estimates of the
ban centers) can significantly increase
search counters that the decreasing
roles cloud cover and oceans play in
the earth's albedo (the light and heat
daily temperature range might be a
mediating climatic change.
that the earth and its atmosphere re-
consequence of urban development
Clouds seem to have a net cooling
flect back into space). Robert D. Cess
near measuring stations.
effect, so if cloud cover increased it
of the State University of New York
Another participant in the debate is
might, other things being equal, partly
at Stony Brook says his analysis of sat-
the Marshall Institute in Washington,
offset any warming brought on by the
ellite data indicates a significant in-
D.C. Founded in 1984 and privately
buildup of carbon dioxide and other
crease in the albedo of stratocumulus
funded, the institute's most notable
greenhouse gases. Oceans, for their
clouds over the ocean for thousands
previous contribution to public poli-
part, act as a vast heat sink, dissipat-
of miles downwind of major popula-
cy discussion was a stout defense of
ing and circulating heat.
tion centers such as Southeast Asia
the Strategic Defense Initiative. Now
Two recent climate-model studies
and the east coast of North America. It
under the Marshall banner, Frederick
have incorporated more sophisticated
is thought that the sulfate particles
Seitz, a past president of the Nation-
representations of clouds and oceans
provide nuclei around which cloud
al Academy of Sciences, Robert Jas-
than previous models. One such mod-
droplets form and so increase cloud
trow, the founder of the Goddard Insti-
el, described in Nature by John F. B.
reflectance.
tute for Space Studies and William A.
Mitchell and his colleagues at the Brit-
Similarly, Philip A. Durkee of the
Nierenberg, director emeritus of the
ish Meteorological Office, accounts for
Naval Postgraduate School in Monte-
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
the fact that ice clouds have different
rey, Calif., has found threefold in-
have seized on another weak link in
properties than water clouds do. Ac-
creases in the reflectance of strato-
current climate models. They suggest
cording to the model, even if levels of
cumulus clouds over the ocean hun-
(with no firm evidence) that fluctua-
carbon dioxide and other gases effec-
dreds of miles downwind from San
tions in the sun's brightness during
tively double by the middle of the next
Francisco and Los Angeles. Such re-
the past 100 years may be responsible
century, the atmosphere will warm by
sults suggest that anthropogenic in-
for the uneven course of global warm-
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1989
17
ing in this century. If so, they argue,
ones"-are emerging from anonymity
nos Aires by the American Association
the planet's response to the buildup
to bear silent witness against their
for the Advancement of Science, has
of greenhouse gases has been small-
executioners, if not in court then in
so far exhumed some 120 bodies and
er than climate models suggest, and
history. The Argentine Forensic An-
has positively identified 30; some of
expectations of warming should be
thropology Team, a group of seven
the identifications have already served
scaled back accordingly.
investigators working out of a small
as evidence in trials that produced
Michaels thinks projections of glob-
office in Buenos Aires, is quietly ex-
convictions.
al warming will become even more
tending its efforts to identify the re-
The team gathers data by examining
moderate as models become increas-
mains of persons murdered during
skeletal remains and also by studying
ingly sophisticated and incorporate
the military regime. In collaboration
records of prisoner transfers from il-
more climate feedbacks. Cess, for one,
with colleagues in the U.S., the Argen-
legal detention centers and burial rec-
disagrees: he believes improvements
tine workers are developing ways to
ords from cemeteries. Clyde C. Snow,
to models are as likely to make projec-
apply DNA-fingerprinting techniques
an American forensic anthropolo-
tions worse as they are to make them
to the identification of badly decom-
gist based in Norman, Okla., taught
better. Only more research is likely to
posed corpses. The team is also ex-
the Argentine workers many of their
settle the arguments. Tim Beardsley
porting its expertise to other coun-
techniques: how to determine age,
tries where political repression has
sex, stature, handedness, race-even a
been widespread.
woman's childbearing history-from
Ningún Nombre
The National Commission on the
fragmentary remains. Frequently, den-
Disappeared, established by President
tal records or details of healed frac-
Identifying Argentina's
Raúl Alfonsín in 1983, has estimated
tures will clinch an identification.
desaparecidos
that more than 9,000 Argentines were
According to Mercedes Doretti, one
illegally detained and killed under mil-
of the team's founding members who
I
n late September Argentina's new
itary rule, most of them between 1976
visited Washington, D.C., in Septem-
president, Carlos Saúl Menem,
and 1978. Although many bodies were
ber, brain tissue has recently been
bowed to pressure to pardon
cremated or dumped at sea, others
found in skulls exhumed from a mass
some 20 police and military officers
were buried in graves marked "N.N."-
grave near Buenos Aires. The team
accused of killing dissidents during
ningún nombre ("no name"). The fo-
hopes to extract DNA from the brain
the 1970's. But some of the victims-
rensic anthropology team, which was
tissue or from the cranial bones to ob-
the desaparecidos, or "disappeared
spawned by a workshop given in Bue-
tain DNA fingerprints-detailed anal-
yses of the victims' DNA that can then
be compared with the DNA of living
relatives. By doing so, the team thinks
Most of the scores of exhumed Argentine victims
it can identify the desaparecidos with
are impossible for investigators to identify
a high degree of certainty. Cellmark
Diagnostics in Germantown, Md., has
offered to help by analyzing bone
samples. Karen R. Rubenstein says
the company is cautiously optimistic
that it will be able to obtain DNA
fingerprints from samples sent by
the Argentine team. Immunologists
at the Hospital Duran in Buenos Ai-
res are already using specific genetic
markers in the blood to identify chil-
dren of desaparecidos who were kid-
napped and secretly adopted by mili-
tary families.
Laws passed in 1987 and 1988 by
the Alfonsín government-which op-
erated under the constant threat of
military rebellion-reduced the num-
ber of trials of those who alleged-
ly authorized the killings, from about
300 to 17. When President Menem an-
nounced his intention to pardon the
accused, he also said he would consid-
er granting pardons to some of the
senior officers and junta leaders who
were previously convicted. Nonethe-
less, the forensic anthropology team
intends to continue its investigations,
Doretti says, both for the sake of the
families of the desaparecidos and for
REMAINS of an unidentified male, estimated to have been 40 to 45 years of age,
the historical record. Interest in the
were unearthed by the Argentine Forensic Anthropology Team. Six bullets were
team's work is spreading: members
found in the skull and elsewhere in the skeleton. The official death certificate
have visited human-rights groups in
records the cause of death as "acute hemorrhage."
the Philippines and Chile and are cur-
18
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1989
Science, Not Rhetoric, Should
Show How Serious the Problem Is
by Bill G. Aldridge
morning during the symposium. and
many TV stations and newspapers car-
I was pleased to be invited to Green-
ried stories about it. PBS filmed the
house/Glasnost. the Sundance Sym-
entire proceedings for a future
NATIONAL SCIENCE TEACHERS ASSOCIATION
documentary. The State of the World.
1742 Connectici ut Avenue NW
posium on Global Climate Change. or
Washington, D.C. 20009
Sundance Summit for short. The sym-
Unfortunately, I came away with many
202 328 5800
posium was held at actor Robert
reservations about the meeting. Though
Redford's Institute for Resource Man-
I may seem critical of the symposium.
Oct 25, 1989
agement in Sundance. Utah. in a beau-
my criticism stems from my concern
tiful mountain canyon owned by
about science education. I want to stress
Redford. (The area also serves as a
that I'm not questioning the partici-
Dear allan,
small winter ski resort and a summer
pants' sincerity or the problems that
institute for the performing arts.) The
may result from neglecting the environ-
symposium's topic was the problems of
ment. The process that occurred at the
d want you to Know that
global warming through carbon dioxide
meeting-the way "evidence" was pre-
and other emissions and what has been
sented and discussed-disturbs me.
termed the greenhouse effect. Also dis-
If the conference taught me anything.
of, personally, support your
cussed was the depletion of the ozone
it is that so-called science and society
layer by chlorofluorocarbons.
approaches to science education are
The list of conference attendees was
filled with dangers. I became increas-
position on the greenhouse use
unusual and impressive. Along with
ingly uncomfortable during the sympo-
Redford were Senators Bill Bradley,
sium-which at times felt more like a
Timothy Wirth, and John Heinz. Carl
religious revival than a scientific meet-
Sagan, Tom Brokaw, Jane Pauley. and
ing-because what I observed is symp-
Garry Trudeau were also there. A very
interesting mix of scientists included
education in the United States.
article d have
you might be interested coming in jul an
tomatic of what is wrong with science
atmospheric scientists Steven Schnei-
Too many people offered simple solu-
der and Jim Hanson, as well as environ-
tions and glib explanations. without
mentalists Mike Oppenheimer of the
really understanding the science or the
Environmental Defense Fund and Jay
evidence behind their assertions. As-
This month,
Hair. president of the National Wildlife
sembled were experts and authorities
Federation. A Soviet delegation came,
who warned about the dire conse-
led by Roald Sagdeev, former director of
quences facing the world if we don't
the Space Research Institute of Moscow.
change immediately. Slick descriptions
Also attending were representatives of
and explanations were backed up by
Bill
power companies, coal producers, and
elaborate visual and computer models.
such major corporations as Dupont.
On the one hand were zealots pushing
Because of this remarkable collection
for change around the world. while on
of participants. the symposium received
the other hand scientists summarized
widespread publicity. CBS did a live
the results of the models and expressed
three-hour series of interviews one
their concern. Also expressing their
The falk still! an out there Anan
John Summy:
Gore asked, "Do you believe that the
Global Warming Becomes
doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmo-
sphere, which will occur in the next 40 years
Hot Issue for Bromley
or so, is likely to result in global warming?"
Bromley replied, "It's certainly possible, and
probable to some degree, but that's as far as
I can say on the basis of the evidence." Given
A disagreement within the Administration over plans for an
the changes in the Mitchell model, he said,
international meeting on global change was aired in the press and
"my answer is that I simply don't know."
Steven Schneider of the National Center
on Capitol Hill last week
for Atmospheric Research and many other
atmospheric scientists have said that while
PRESIDENTIAL SCIENCE ADVISER D. Allan
TN) and John Kerry (D-MA) about his
current models are relatively crude and
Bromley last week found himself in the hot
views on global warming and whether he
flawed in some ways, their predictive reli-
seat when he was called before a Senate
approved of U.S. participation at The
ability has been validated to a substantial
subcommittee to explain his views on global
Hague meeting. Bromley would only say,
degree. Moreover, they point out that the
warming. The Senators were angered by
"My belief is that we should not move
fundamental theories of how greenhouse
press reports that Bromley had opposed
forward on major programs until we have a
gases trap heat have been substantiated by
sending a U.S. delegation to an internation-
reasonable understanding of the scientific
billions of observations of the atmosphere.
for
al ministerial meeting on global change, to
and economic consequences of those pro-
Thomas Lovejoy, an ecologist and assis-
be
be held in The Hague next week.
grams."
tant secretary for external affairs of the
Bromley was recently appointed by Presi-
Asked by Gore whether the scientific evi-
Smithsonian Institution, said in an interview
dent Bush to chair a Domestic Policy Coun-
dence is inadequate to justify curbs on
that the Administration "could be taking a
e
cil working group on global change, a posi-
San Andreas fault approach" in
so
tion that gives him a prominent role in
New responsibility. Brom-
formulating national policy on
ant
formulating U.S. policy. According to Ad-
ley now chairs a global change
global warming. "It's resisting
or
ministration sources, at the working group's
working group.
change until it's catastrophic."
first meeting on 20 October, Bromley and
Lovejoy, whom Bromley has
the
White House chief of staff John Sununu
nominated as a member of the White House
for
opposed a recommendation by Environ-
science council, last week wrote a letter to
of
mental Protection Agency administrator
Bromley himself, urging that the President
ay-
William
Reilly and the State Department
and the Cabinet be given a full briefing by
est
that
the
United States attend The Hague
scientists on global warming. "There are a
he
conference, which will be held on 6 and 7
lot of actions associated with cutting green-
g
November.
house gases that will make us more competi-
I
At the meeting, which will draw together
tive," Lovejoy says.
a
environment ministers from some 60 coun-
At the congressional hearing, Bromley
tries, the Netherlands is expected to propose
also repeatedly stressed the importance of
A)
that carbon dioxide emissions be stabilized
allowing a United Nations group, the Inter-
tic
at present levels by the year 2000 and that
governmental Panel on Climate Change, or
all
the feasibility of a 20% cut worldwide by
IPCC, to finish a report on evaluating
m-
2005 be studied.
ays
The Netherlands is hoping that the meet-
DR
BROMLEY
Ken Heinen
greenhouse effects. The report could lead to
an international framework convention ac-
nd
ing will produce a consensus statement on
knowledging the problem of global warm-
cal
global warming. But Bromley, Sununu, and
ing and then to a protocol with specific
others are reportedly worried that the Unit-
greenhouse emissions, Bromley responded
goals to cut emissions of greenhouse gases.
ed States, which produces one-fifth of the
that recent adjustments to climatic models
This process is similar to the one that led to
:-
world's carbon dioxide emissions, could suf-
by British climate modeler John Mitchell
an international agreement on a phaseout of
it
fer economic damage if stabilization levels
have made him uneasy about the reliability
chlorofluorocarbon gases.
e
or reductions are agreed to.
of predictions that the earth is warming up
But a few other countries, including the
Administration officials are also divided
significantly.
Netherlands, together with environmental-
over whether the United States should hon-
Mitchell's model of the climate system
ists and some members of Congress, con-
or a pledge made by Bush last year to host
previously predicted that the earth's tem-
tend that the IPCC process is moving too
an international conference in 1990 on
perature would rise 5°C when greenhouse
slowly. Although the IPCC report is due out
global change. At the 20 October meeting,
gases double sometime in the next century.
at the end of next year, they say that the
vs
Bromley, Sununu, and others opposed the
But he recently halved this figure after he
IPCC may take several years to arrive at
e,
proposal while Reilly and the State Depart-
added a new factor to his model-the effects
specific goals for emission reductions.
at
ment pushed for it. On 30 October, 40 U.S.
of ice crystals. Bromley said, "That such
As for The Hague meeting, Reilly has
it
senators, all Democrats, signed a letter to
simple and obvious changes in [Mitchell's]
won a partial victory: the United States will
Bush, urging him to keep his commitment
model can make major changes in predic-
be sending a delegation, which Reilly will
to convene the conference.
tions underscores my own feeling and many
head. But an Administration source says
At the congressional hearing last week,
of my colleagues in the scientific community
that Reilly "is going with a bare portfolio."
IS
Bromley dodged, for the most part, repeated
that, we have a substantial distance to go
Bromley will be part of the delegation.
questioning by Senators Albert Gore (D-
yet."
MARJORIE SUN
46
3 NOVEMBER 1989
NEWS & COMMENT 569
have all 25 in there, greenhouse predictions
may get worse. "
Caution like Sununu's may be prudent;
unbridled optimism is not. He cites another
new study that lowers projections of green-
house warming. Warren Washington and
Gerald Meehl of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.,
used more sophisticated simulations of the
oceans' circulation and heat exchange than
did earlier computer runs. In their worst-
case scenario-an overnight doubling of
CO2-the pair found that the world would
warm 1.6 degrees Celsius within 30 years,
again a more mild greenhouse. But Meehl
points out that their model did not run long
enough to show all the warming CO2 would
produce. Some remained bottled up in the
great heat sink of the ocean. (The seas ab-
sorb most of the CO2 produced on the plan-
et.) Running the models out another few
decades would produce more heating. Says
Meehl, "It may take longer to see climate
change, but you do see it."
Stormy weather: Even increases of a degree
or two can have unpleasant effects.
Droughts would be more likely. Storms
would be more severe and frequent, because
the atmosphere holds more energy. Agri-
cultural belts would shift, possibly causing
crop failures. Although many skeptics ar-
gue that crops would thrive on the extra
ALLEN RUSSELL-PICTURE GROUP
CO2, in fact plants have responded to past
CO₂ increases by developing fewer of the
Keeping a Weather Eye on the Mercury
tiny pores that breathe in this gas. Most
worrisome, while a mild greenhouse may
Even sophisticated formulas used to predict the greenhouse can't account for all
not be a great place to live, no one can
of nature's forces. Several variables may make the climate mild or hellish.
rule out the chance of a hellish tomorrow.
"Although a 1-degree warming is much
Silver Linings
more probable," says climatologist (and
skeptic) Robert Balling of Arizona State
Clouds: Higher temperatures increase evapora-
University, "it is ludicrous to say 5.5 de-
tion and hence clouds, which are made of water
grees cannot happen."
vapor and help cool the planet.
But when? Current inhabitants of the
Volcanoes: Eruptions spew tiny particles into the
White House don't have to worry. Because
atmosphere that deflect sunlight, causing cooling.
the oceans absorb so much heat, it will be
Plankton: Warmth and extra CO2 might promote
decades before the world gets appreciably
the growth of these tiny marine organisms, which
hotter because of CO2 already loosed on the
absorb CO2 and take it out of circulation.
planet-unless some of the unknown forces
that shape climate bring on more warming
LARRY DOWNING-NEWSWEEK
Oceans: Their heat-absorbing capacity might de-
more quickly (table). Says climatologist Mi-
More data, please: Sununu
lay warming for more than a century.
chael Schlesinger of the University of Illi-
nois, "Our children will ask
Start Building an Ark
why their folks didn't do some-
thing about greenhouse warm-
Sea ice: Once it starts to melt, less sunlight will be
ing when they had the chance."
reflected away, exacerbating the warming.
That leaves society with a
Acid rain: Sulfur dioxide, which causes acid rain,
painfully familiar choice: how
also cools the earth. Controlling acid rain might
to act in the face of uncertainty.
thus accelerate the greenhouse effect.
As NCAR climatologist Ste-
Permafrost: Warming might melt the frozen soil,
phen Schneider puts it in his
releasing buried methane-a greenhouse gas.
new book, "Global Warming,"
"Can we base trillion-dollar de-
Soil: Warming ordinary soil would increase the
cisions about global economic
rate at which bacteria convert dead organic matter
development strategies on
into CO2, intensifying the man-made greenhouse.
JACQUES CHENET-NEWSWEEK
Early warnings: Hansen
these admittedly cloudy crystal balls?" He
says yes-procrastinating would be reck-
less. But MIT's Lindzen recommends wait-
NEWSWEEK NOVEMBER 20, 1989 65
S
C
I
E
T
Y
ing, since "most of these questions will be on
ton and algae that support the
significantly surer ground in five years."
rest of the aquatic food chain.
Other experts think 10 or 20 years is more
Food shortages are already af-
like it, and that what we learn is as likely to
fecting the walleyed pike, a
point to a worse greenhouse. Says Moham-
perchlike species that accounts
med El-Ashry of the World Resources Insti-
for most of Ohio's $500 mil-
tute, a Washington think tank, "When we
lion sports-fishing industry and
waited for more research on acid rain, we
is harvested commercially in
ended up realizing that everything we
Canada. This year Ohio's catch
knew 10 years earlier was true." And wait-
will be off by an estimated
ing exacts a price. Gradually replacing oil
600,000 fish (down from 4.9 mil-
with solar energy, for instance, is much less
lion to 4.3 million), and Canadi-
painful than a sudden switch. And the long-
an fishermen say the walleyes
er greenhouse gases are emitted, the more
they're catching are smaller
warming we may ultimately confront.
than usual.
How we respond to the greenhouse threat
That's just the beginning.
will depend not only on science but also on
Mature zebra mussels use
the palatability of the required changes.
tough, threadlike membranes
The industry-sponsored Global Climate Co-
to latch onto hard surfaces in
alition opposes singling out American com-
layered colonies, and they
panies to "cure" the greenhouse. Ford
seem particularly fond of the
Motor Co., for instance, points out that U.S.
huge intake pipes that provide
passenger cars account for 1.2 percent of
water supplies throughout the
K. BRUSATE-COMMERCIAL DIVING SERVICES
global CO2 emissions; doubling fuel effi-
Great Lakes Basin. The town
ciency would cut that to .6 percent. "It
From the deep: Mussel magnified three times
of Monroe, Mich., had to ban
would throw industry into a tailspin and
lawn sprinklers this summer, after the
ENVIRONMENT
have minimum environmental impact,"
crustaceans colonized its 30-inch-wide, 10-
argues Ford's Kelly Brown. But vehicles
mile-long intake pipe, reducing its capaci-
account for 32 percent of America's CO₂
emissions; utilities, for 34 percent. Of
Showdown at
ty by a third. Musselbound waterlines
have brought a halt to development in the
course, America alone cannot stop the
greenhouse, but if a rich, technologically
Mussel Beach
town of West Lorne, in southwest Ontario,
and caused a series of equipment failures
advanced nation won't put its own house in
at the Ford Motor Co.'s Windsor (Ont.)
order, then developing countries-poten-
Casting Plant, where engine blocks are
tially worse greenhouse villains-have a
Marauding crustaceans
cast from molten iron.
perfect excuse to do nothing.
Ford officials were able to kill the invad-
Foreign oil: Changes that would mitigate
terrorize Great Lakes
ers with 300-pound doses of chlorine, leav-
the greenhouse would actually bring oth-
ing cleanup crews to contend with moun-
er benefits. Energy conservation reduces
tains of malodorous dead. But municipal
dependence on imported oil; fuel-efficient
t may lack the girth of the Blob or the
officials have to think about purity as well
cars and planting trees clean the air.
menacing chirp of Hitchcock's birds, but
as quantity. Since chlorine and mussel
Some changes would improve competitive-
the zebra mussel is staging a classic
proteins can mix to form suspected carcin-
ness. At least the Japanese, whose models
creep-show routine on the western shores
ogens, Monroe officials are trying to devel-
show a temperature increase of 1.5 to 3
of Lake Erie. The striped freshwater clam
op a whirling scrubber that will unseat
degrees Celsius by 2030, seem to think
invaded North America just three years
the intruders mechanically. Other com-
so. They are researching ways to recycle
ago, when a European tanker flushed its
munities are trying to concoct filters that
CO2 released in industrial processes, de-
ballasts into Lake St. Clair. Since then,
will keep the mussels from entering the
velop energy sources to replace fossil
populations have spread through the De-
pipes in the first place. These devices will
fuels and capture CO2 by using marine
troit River and into Lake Erie at a clip of
cost an estimated $50 million apiece, and
algae to "fix" it.
160 miles a year. The prolific crustaceans
dozens of towns may require them. "Many
For those who fear that the greenhouse
are now entombing boat hulls and beaches,
of us are moving quickly to contain this
will arrive-and no responsible scientist
disrupting a large fishing industry and
mussel," says Michael Donahue of the
denies that possibility-it seems impera-
clogging waterlines that support cities and
Great Lakes Commission, an eight-state
tive to take immediate steps to mitigate it.
factories. Unless the invasion is stopped,
consortium of governments. "But I can
For those who fear such changes, it seems
experts speculate, 26 million people could
tell you that the cost will be much more
more prudent to postpone action until the
lose their water supplies within five years.
than the Exxon oil spill."
effect is indisputably upon us. The Bush
For Great Lakes fishermen, the immedi-
Natural predators may offer the best
administration has budgeted $250 million
ate threat is not the thumb-size grown-ups
hope of all. No amount of garlic or butter
this fiscal year for climate modeling,
but the subvisible larvae they spawn by the
will turn a zebra mussel into restaurant
money that would go to both scientific
tens of thousands. Off the shores of Toledo
fare, but the striped pests have turned up in
camps. Some of the uncertainties might be
and Cleveland and near Leamington, Ont.,
the stomachs of several species of fish. Div-
resolved by the next world climate confer-
a single cubic meter of water often contains
ing ducks like them, too, and large flocks
ence, in late 1990. But the debate will not
a half-million mussel larvae. "I don't think
will spend the next two months in the
be over by then. Society will have to face
it has reached its peak even there," says
Great Lakes, en route from Canada to the
its demons and decide which it fears most.
Gerry Mackie, a biologist at the University
southern United States. Let us hope
of Guelph. The voracious youngsters have
they're hungry.
SHARON BEGLEY with MARY HAGER
in Washington, LARRY WILSON in New York
increased water clarity threefold-but
GEOFFREY COWLEY with
and bureau reports
they've done it by gobbling up the plank-
LOUIS AGUILAR in Detroit
66 NEWSWEEK NOVEMBER 20, 1989
S
C
E
Y
SCIENCE
Is It All
geonalgile
Just Hot Air?
New computer models question the severity
and timing of the greenhouse effect
ow worried should we be about
19th century should have warmed the plan-
H
the greenhouse effect? Last week
et 3 degrees Celsius, according to the mod-
British Prime Minister Margaret
els-but the world has warmed no more
Thatcher, hardly an eco-freak,
than half a degree. The discrepancy may be
called on the United Nations to
due to a delay between the emission of
adopt a binding treaty restricting emissions
greenhouse gases and their warming effect,
of gases that threaten to warm the planet,
a delay determined in part by how much
causing deadly floods and food shortages.
CO2 the oceans absorb and by how long it
Yet just the day before, at an international
takes the waters to warm up. But critics
meeting in a Dutch seaside resort, only 30 of
don't accept that. "The most conservative
the 68 nations in attendance supported a
climate model overestimated warming by a
Dutch proposal to freeze the level of emis-
factor of six," says climatologist Patrick
sions of greenhouse gases by the end of the
Michaels of the University of Virginia.
century and cut them 20 percent by 2005.
"Isn't that enough to give you pause about
Japan, the Soviet Union, China and the
[forecasts of the end of the world?"
Villainous CO2: Polluted Mexico City
United States-which together account for
Although computer models say green-
58 percent of the world's output of these
house warming has begun, the data are
climate will be like by, say, 2030. To answer
gases-agreed only that stabilizing them
controversial. Climatologist James Han-
that, researchers are making their models
"should be achieved as soon as possible."
sen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space
more realistic. In one recent fine-tuning,
Environmentalists lambasted the emp-
Studies, using global-temperature data
researchers led by J.F.B. Mitchell of the
ty statement as "either a failure of nerve
covering the last 100 years, concludes that
British Meteorological Office rewrote their
or a cynical ploy," as Brooks Yeager of
the greenhouse effect has indeed kicked in:
equations to simulate clouds containing ice
the National Audubon Society put it. Per-
the readings have gone up an average of 0.4
crystals, not only water vapor as before. The
haps, but it also reflects the uncertainty
degree Celsius. But skeptics argue that the
effect: overcast increases, which cools the
of greenhouse science. Predictions of glob-
tiny warming is due largely to urban heat
world just as does a passing cirrus on a July
al warming rest on the observation that
islands-cities heating their surroundings.
afternoon. The result, the BMO group
certain gases-carbon dioxide (CO2), ni-
And since the thermometers are on land
wrote in the journal Nature, is a global
trous oxides, methane, chlorofluorocar-
they may not reflect the (mostly watery)
warming of 1.9 degrees Celsius, not the 3 to
bons (CFCs)-act like glass in a botanical
planet as a whole. "Ocean temperatures
5.5 degrees predicted by most current mod-
greenhouse, trapping heat and thus
show no change since the 19th century,"
els. (In Fahrenheit, that's a warming of 3.4
warming the planet. That much remains
contends geophysicist Richard Lindzen of
degrees, rather than 5.4 to 9.9 degrees.)
unquestioned: a greenhouse of some mag-
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
White House chief of staff John Sununu
nitude is coming some time. The debate
Tibetan glacier: New data, however,
(an MIT-trained engineer) and science ad-
turns on three points:
strengthen the case for the greenhouse.
viser D. Allan Bromley (a physicist) have
Have greenhouse gases affected our
Next month, at a meeting of the American
seized on this result to argue against taking
weather yet?
Geophysical Union, mathematicians from
steps to mitigate the greenhouse. "You do
How much will temperatures rise once
AT&T Bell Labs will report that, by ruling
not establish policies on the basis of incom-
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reach
out other explanations of global warming-
plete models," Sununu told NEWSWEEK.
twice their current levels, around 2030?
from chance to solar oscillations-they
"We have the time and obligation to find out
A degree, or an apocalyptic 5.5 degrees?
were able to conclude that "there is a 99.99
what's going on. We're going to do the right
How long does it take for the mercury
percent chance that the warming and the
thing. We want to know what the right
to shoot up?
CO₂ rise are causally related," says David
thing is." True enough. But the White
For answers, climatologists turn to com-
Thomson. And researchers from Ohio State
House may be taking more comfort from
puter models. But these mathematical for-
University announced this month that ice
the new results than is warranted. V. Ra-
mulations are crude approximations at
cores from a glacier in Tibet show that Cen-
manathan a University of Chicago geo-
best, as the modelers are the first to admit.
tral Asia has warmed 1 to 3 degrees Celsius
physicist not noted for apocaly rhetoric,
For instance, greenhouse contrarians
in the last 100 years-something that can-
explains that cloud behavior "involves
charge, the models do not even "predict"
not be attributed to warm cities.
about 25 different interactions, and our
the past very well. Gases released since the
The more pressing question is what the
models simulate only one or two. When we
64 NEWSWEEK NOVEMBER 20, 1989
W.P.
Sunday, 4-1-90
geohal Werning
OUTLOOK
Dockg
Commentary and Opinion
development
dynamism
Jesse Jackson
interventionism
Newt Gingrich
keep hope alive"
libertarians
isolationism
tax -cutters
Gorbachev
Jack Kemp
supply-siders
cosmopolitism
National Review
@
progressive conservatism
Commentary
big spenders
6
The New Republic
Ry
Chronicles
Doves
S
6
The Nation
S
Mother Jones
the new left
Hawks
green
neo-conservatism
Cold
War
uo
environmentalism
Jeremy Rifkin
"small is beautiful"
New Options
preservationism
paleo-conservatism
Whole Earth Review
communitarians
Utne Reader
Jimmy Carter
Garbage Magazine
nationalism
sustainability
stasis
Jerry Brown
NANCY BROOKE SMITH-THE WASHINGTON POST
The Ideology Shuffle
Forget Left and Right-Our Politics Are Breaking Down Into Growth vs. Green
By Virginia I. Postrel
indeed relish, capitalism's "creative destruction."
publican Party dropped its tradition of cautious
They glory in human ingenuity, extolling the vir-
naysaying and embraced dynamism as a funda-
NEW IDEOLOGICAL fissure is
tues of immigrant shopkeepers and Silicon Valley
mental principle. Hence, the rise of the supply-
rapidly reshaping American pol-
entrepreneurs. They see economic opportunity
A
siders and of the Jack Kemp-Newt Gingrich idea
itics, one that is displacing the
as the only hope for the poor, and growth as the
of "progressive conservatism."
notions of "left" and "right" that
key to that opportunity. They view American
Since the '70s, peace and prosperity have
have dominated our politics for
individualism as a source of strength and a cer-
changed the political background. Voters can now
decades. In fact, it is reshuffling
tain amount of disorder as the price of creativity.
afford to grumble about oil spills, traffic and trade
leftists and rightists, creating sur-
On the other side are the prophets of "sustain-
deficits, since they no longer face oil embargos,
prising and sometimes bizarre
ability." They warn of limits to growth and decry
gasoline lines and stagflation. The '80s marked a
new alliances between former op-
the pace of modern life. They are suspicious of
decade of rapid economic change and restructur-
ponents. This divide isn't over
new technologies, seeing in them the seeds of
ing.
defense, spending, law and order or communism;
future problems. They view the economy as es-
The politics of stasis evokes a calmer, gentler
it is between the proponents of economic dyna-
sentially zero-sum, unable to bring prosperity to
America, one less subject to the hurly-burly of
mism and the advocates of stasis.
some without depriving others. They mourn the
"merger mania" or foreign competition. After a
Although it has major implications for domestic
loss of community and the despoilation of the
decade in which dynamism has been in ascen-
and foreign policy, this new division is now par-
earth. Deriding their opponents as "techno-
dance, those who call for a static economy can
ticularly pronounced at the state and local level.
optimists," they prophesy worldwide disaster if
look less like malaise peddlers and more like
Ultimately, it will define the most contentious
we do not substantially alter our economic sys-
moderates.
issues of the coming decade: trade, immigration,
tem.
"Too many of us now tend to worship self-in-
urban growth and, above all, environmentalism.
This rift first appeared in the 1970s, with Jim-
dulgence and consumption," said Carter in his
On one side are those who see economic
my Carter and Jerry Brown. This new kind of
"malaise" speech. "But we've discovered that
growth as fundamentally desirable. They accept,
Democrat was not only willing but eager to
owning things and consuming things does not
Virginia Postrel is the editor of Reason magazine.
preach limits and call for austerity and sacrifice.
satisfy our longing for meaning." In 1979, these
Simultaneously, and perhaps in response, the Re-
See IDEOLOGY, C2, Col. 1
dioxide emissions be cut by 20 percent by
stasis as a political philosophy could cost the
the end of the decade and 40 percent by
party what remains of its traditional consti-
2010. In a state growing by half a million
tuencies.
residents a year-with the concomitant
As Jesse Jackson's move toward the pol-
The Ideology Shuffle
increase in automobiles, electricity demand
itics of dynamism demonstrates, "keeping
and backyard barbecues-that is a prescrip-
hope alive" doesn't necessarily square with
tion not just for stasis but for economic de-
keeping things the same. And green pre-
pression.
scriptions have a way of taking their toll on
IDEOLOGY, From C1
perfect sense when both men are seen as
the upwardly mobile poor. The Los Angeles
advocates of economic dynamism. So, on
sentiments sounded self-righteous and
T
he politics of stasis has proven it can
area's much-touted Air Quality Management
the other side of the divide, does the picnic
win backing from grassroots activ-
gloomy, an excuse for a lousy economy and
District plan to reduce air pollution threatens
for Jeremy Rifkin held last fall by the staff
ists. Indeed, a whole new movement
a call to accept living with less. Ten years
of Chronicles, a monthly published by the
has emerged, composed of local activists
to all but wipe out the region's flourishing
later, they would have fit into just about any
furniture business-a major employer of La-
Rockford Institute.
working to ban chemicals, oppose incinera-
review of the decade-or, indeed, into
tino immigrants-while producing plenty of
Now that the right's anticommunist glue
tors and control urban growth. It began with
George Bush's inaugural address.
jobs for college-educated consultants.
is evaporating, and with it the centrality of
neighborhood protesters but quickly took on
And given their open hostility to "indus-
a this favorable environment, the old
the neoconservatives, Rockford's "paleo-
green ideological coloring.
I
trialism," it isn't surprising to find greens less
pro-stasis voices are speaking out with
conservatives" hope to mount a comeback.
"These activists were strongly attached to
than sympathetic to manufacturing jobs. Yet
renewed vigor. "Most people do not rec-
Their message combines a dollop of limited-
the notion of community; deeply mistrustful
those are the jobs that have provided middle-
ognize that, at least in rich nations, econom-
government rhetoric with a communitarian,
of corporate, governmental, and environmen-
class lives for the Democrats' already-dimin-
ic growth is the disease, not the cure," as
anti-immigrant, anti-free trade, anti-tech-
tal elites; and willing to entertain the notion
ishing blue-collar constituency. The green
Paul and Anne Ehrlich put it in their new
nology agenda. It doesn't fit in very well
that the way to deal with a particular dump
solution is redistribution, which, at best, of-
book, Population Explosion."
with the Republican Party's pro-dynamism
site ultimately led to the notion of industrial
fers the poor a less-bad life, not a good one.
Meanwhile, new advocates of dynamism
platform, but it has garnered some environ-
restructuring and dramatic political change,"
And, of course, there's the South-a re-
mentalist friends.
are emerging, often bridging the traditional
writes Robert Gottlieb in the March/April
gion that remembers what it's like to be poor
ideological categories. Joel Kotkin, coauthor
issue of Tikkun. Like the grassroots activists
his ideological realignment has ram-
and is none too eager to return to that status.
of "The Third Century: America's Resur-
T
with whom he sympathizes, Gottlieb slams
ifications in the world of practical pol-
Green advocates of "steady-state economics,"
gence in the Asian Era," freely quotes Marx
itics. The question for both the Dem-
the large, mainstream environmental groups
such as World Bank economist Herman E.
and criticizes as narrowly Eurocentric those
ocratic Party and mainstream environmen-
as too concerned with containing pollution,
Daly, deplore capital mobility, not only
who promote college courses on Western
not enough with radical economic change.
talists is whether to adopt the politics of
among nations but among regions. Without
Will stasis play as long-term politics? Such
civilization. Yet his pro-entrepreneur, pro-
stasis as their prescription for economic and
such mobility, the South would never have
activists constitute an alluring constituency
immigrant, anti-protectionist message has
ecological health. The worldwide "green"
become the Sunbelt, and southerners know
for Democratic politicians, but embracing
that.
found some of its most receptive audiences
movement offers a seductive-and inspir-
on the pro-capitalist right.
ingly purist-alternative to accepting some
And lawyer Clint Bolick, of the Landmark
risks, some changes and some pollution.
Legal Foundation's Center for Civil Rights,
"I see the day in our lifetime that rever-
is mounting a "conservative" campaign for a
ence for the natural systems-the oceans,
positive approach to civil rights. Rather
the rain forests, the soil, the grasslands and
than litigating to block affirmative action
all other living things-will be so strong
plans, Bolick tries to break down barriers to
that no narrow ideology based upon politics
Finally, embracing the politics of stasis
economic mobility.
or economics will overcome it," said Jerry
could mean cutting the Democratic Party off
Some of the most interesting pro-dyna-
Brown in 1979. Many people think that day
once and for all from what is most appealing
mism alliances are occuring not in the Unit-
has come, at least in California. And Brown,
about liberalism: its optimism. The Repub-
ed States but abroad. Peruvian writer Her-
back from exile, is now chairman of Califor-
licans will quite happily become the party of
nando de Soto, whose book "The Other
nia's Democratic Party.
hope-they do, after all, claim a classical-lib-
Path" is a bestseller
throughout
Latin
Green ideas are by far the most vital and
eral wing-and the Democrats may find
America, calls himself a libertarian; his pro-
exciting today's left has to draw on. (After
themselves with nothing to offer but fear
capitalist analysis of the Peruvian econo-
only six years of publication, the green-ori-
itself.
my's "informal sector" would put him on the
ented Utne Reader boasts a paid circulation
Mainstream environmentalists, too, face a
American right. But he works with leftist
of more than 200,000-twice that of The
choice about aligning themselves with those
unions of illegal entrepreneurs and sharply
New Republic or The Nation.) Green ide-
whose goal is to dismantle industrial society.
criticizes Peruvian conservatives. They are,
ology speaks of slowing life down and of
Clean air and water, lovely places to hike,
he says, "mercantilists" hostile to economic
viewing life whole. It evokes a world of nat-
protection for endangered species-these
dynamism, deregulation and the rule of law.
ural beauty and human scale, in which peo-
are the environmental goals most Americans
(De Soto's analysis has reached as far as
ple will fully understand the tools they use
embrace. But average citizens do not long for
South Africa. Aggrey Klaaste, editor of The
and will provide for themselves without de-
the world of subsistence agriculture or local-
Sowetan, finds striking parallels between
pending on experts or specialists. It speaks
ized economies envisioned by greens.
"The Other Path" description of Peru and
not of "protectionism" but of "self-
Asked to select the two most urgent prob-
life in South Africa, where many black en-
sufficiency,' not of "regulation" but of "com-
lems facing the country today, respondents
munity control."
trepreneurs must operate illegally.)
to a Los Angeles Times poll ranked the en-
Obviously, the familiar left-right dichot-
The politics of stasis is especially pow-
vironment fifth-well behind crime, educa-
omy doesn't quite capture the emerging
erful at the state and local level. Although it
tion, low morals and government spending.
division. Advocates of dynamism are indi-
has suffered electoral setbacks, "no growth"
Fifteen percent of those polled included the
vidualists and cosmopolitans, comfortable
remains a rallying cry for both affluent
with displacement of the old order-liberals
home-owners and radical environmentalists.
environment among their top two concerns;
in the classic sense. Yet they increasingly
In 1988, New Jersey became the first state
by comparison, 14 percent selected unem-
set the tone of what has been the "conser-
to adopt statewide growth controls. Over
ployment, even though the unemployment
rate is at its lowest level in two decades. The
vative" movement.
the last three years, 76 growth-control
Meanwhile, the proponents of stasis have
measures have appeared on local ballots in
poll suggests that Americans value a clean
California; 70 percent have been approved.
environment, but not at the expense of pros-
congregated on the left's environmentalist
Now an omnibus environmental initiative
perity. At the ballot box, dynamism is likely
fringe. They often call themselves "progres-
dubbed "Big Green" (with petitions printed
to be far more successful than stasis.
sives," while in fact opposing progress as it
on green recycled paper) is wooing Califor-
is usually defined. Theirs is fundamentally a
nia voters. Assemblyman Tom Hayden,
conservative vision: They oppose change
whose political career is stymied, hopes his
and call forth a nationalistic, land-oriented
backing for Big Green will propel him to
order reminiscent of the European right.
statewide office-the post of "Environmen-
It is not surprising, then, that some odd
tal Advocate," which the initiative would
associations have emerged. Jesse Jackson's
create.
praise for Michael Milken-an abomination
Among its many draconian provisions,
from the usual leftist viewpoint-makes
Big Green would decree that total carbon
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE STATEMENT OF THE RESIDENT THE UNITED THE
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503
o
THE DIRECTOR
April 3, 1990
NOTE FOR MSSRS: SUNUNU
BOSKIN
BROMLEY
PORTER
ZOELLICK
AND OTHER FRIENDS OF THE EARTH
SUBJECT:
"GLOBAL WARMING"
In case you missed it, I enclose an annoted bibliography
FYI. This deals only with the question: Is there evidence of
significant warming? This selection of 50 studies suggest: No.
I will forward a more complete bibliography that treats both
sides.
For those who believe there is significant warming --
notwithstanding these studies -- there remains the interesting
question: What to do? I've sent you the Schelling piece. More
will follow.
Dia
Richard G. Darman
CC: Grady
FIFTY REASONS TO DOUBT GLOBAL WARMING
1. Spencer, R., and Christy, J.R., 1990: "Precise Monitoring of Global Temperature
25. Henderson, Sellers A., 1987: "Climate is a Cloudy Issue" NEW SCIENCE
Trends from Satellites." SCIENCE V. 247 pp 1,558-1,562. Shows no warming trend
#115 (1570) pp. 37-39. Shows general increase in cloudiness, suggesting climate
in atmosphere 1979-1988.
cooling not warming.
2. Lindzen, R., 1990: "Some Coolness Concerning Global Warming" Bulletin,
26. Roeckner, E., et al., 1988: "Cloud Effects and Climate Modeling," Nature #329,
American Meteorological V 71 p 288-299. Shows conflict between model
pp. 138-140. More realistic cloud modeling will slash warming forecasts.
forecasts and reality.
27, Shaw, G.E., 1987: "Aerosols as Climate Regulators." ATMOS ENVIR. #21,
3. Angell, J.K., 1986: "Annual and Seasonal Global Temperature Changes in
pp. 985-986. Shows ocean surface micro-organisms operate to regulate plankton,
Troposphere and Low Stratosphere." MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW #107, pp
and climate effects through aerosols.
1922-1930. Shows no statistically significant trend in N.H. stratospheric temp.,
28. Charlson, R., & Lovelock, J.E., et al., 1987: "Oceanic phytoplankton, at-
despite CO2 buildup.
mospheric sulphur, cloud albedo, and climate," NATURE #326, pp. 655-661.
4. Ramanathan, V., et al., 1989: "Cloud Radiative Forcing and Climate." SCIENCE
Shows how phytoplankton regulate Earth's temperatures, suggesting CO2
#243, pp. 57-63. Shows net effect of terrestrial cloudiness is cooling - not
buildups and declines may be more effect than cause.
warming as models assume.
29. Newell, R.A., et al., 1989: "Ocean Climate Records." MIT Technology Review,
5. Karl, T.R., and Jones, P.D., 1988: "Urban Bias in Area-Averaged Surface Air
October 1989. Shows no change in gobal ocean climate record over 120 years in
Temperature Trends." BULL. AMER. MET. SOC. #70, pp. 265-270. Shows NASA
surface or air temperatures and no lagged effect.
temperature record has a 0.2 degree C. urban bias, cutting actual global warming
30. Broeker, W.S., 1987: "Unpleasant Surprises in the greenhouse?" NATURE
to 0.2-0.3 degrees, last 100 years.
#328, pp. 123-126. Shows unfounded speculations on global warming have
6. Michaels, P.J., et al., 1988: "Anthropogenic Warming in North Alaska?" J. OF
reached inordinate levels.
CLIM. #1, pp. 942-945. Using atmospheric pressures to show non-urban temp.
trends, shows no warming since 1948.
31. Lindzen, R,S., et al., 1982: "The Role of Convective Model Choice in Calc.
7. Michaels, P.J., et al., 1989; "Regional 500 Millibar Heights Prior to Radiosonde
Clim. Impact of CO2 Doubling." J.ATMOS SCI. #39, pp. 1,189-1,205. The influ-
Era" Proceedings 6th Conf. Amer. Met Soc. 1989. Extends atmos.press./
ence of failure to understand deep convection's role in cooling.
temperature model to 1885, shows no net non-urban warming and substantial
32. Newell, R.A., et al., 1978: "Long-Term Global Sea Surface Temperature
decline since 1940.
Fluctuations and Their Possible Influence on Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations."
8. Ellsaesser, H.W., et al., 1984: "Global Climatic Trends as Revealed by Record
PURE APPL. GEO. 116, pp. 351-371. Shows no change in global sea tempera-
Data." REVIEW OF GEOPHYS, #24, pp. 745-792. Shows all of the temperature
tures over a century.
rise since 1880 took place prior to trace gas buildup, followed by substantial
33. Ellsaesser H., 1986: "Surface Temperature Changes Following 6 Major Vol-
decline.
canic Episodes 1780-1980." J.CLIM. APPL MET, #25, pp. 1,184-1,185. Shows
climate more resistant to radiation shocks than thought.
9. Sanson J., 1989: "Antarctic Surface Temp. Time Series." J. CLIMATE #2, pp.
1164-1172. Shows no surface winter temperature trend at the pole, where GCMs
34. Schneider, S.H., 1988 on greenhouse effect: "1988 Drought, Cause and
predict it most strongly.
Effect or Media Event?" CLIM CHANGE # 13, pp. 113-115. Shows 1988 summer
10. Seaver, W.L. et al., 1988: "Stat. Exam. of Sky Cover Changes in Contiguous
had no relation to CO2 warming and was misconstrued by media.
U.S." J. CLIM. APPL. MET #26, pp. 88-95. Documents rising cloudiness offsetting
35. Hare, F.K., 1988: "Jumping the Greenhouse Gun." NATURE #334, p. 646.
predicted greenhouse effects.
Warns policy-makers against premature action based on weak science.
11. Wigley, T.M., 1989; "Possible Climate Change Due to SO2 Derivative Cloud
36. Maddox, J., 1988: "Jumping the Greenhouse Gun." NATURE 334, 9. Ditto.
Condensation Nuclei," NATURE #338 pp. 365-367. Suggests sulphate cloud
Wams politicians from overreacting to insufficient science on GW issue.
brightening explains lack of warming trend since 1940.
37. Wood, F.B. Jr., 1988: "The Need For Validation of the U.K. Temp: Trends With
12. Bamett, T.P and Schelsinger, M.E., 1987: "Detecting Changes in Global
Repect to Urban Bias." CLIM CHG 12, pp. 297-312. Shows how hard it is to
Climate Induced by Greenhouse Gases." J. GEOPHYS. RES. #92, pp.
remove urban bias from global records.
14,722-14,780. Shows natural climate variability is grater than the ability of models
38. Wood, F.B. Jr., 1989: "Global Alpine Glacier Trends 1960-1980," J. ARCTIC
to detect trends.
ALP. RES. #20, pp. 404-413. Shows 55 percent of glacial ice now advancing, not
13. Balling, R.C., and Idso, S.B.,. 1989: "Historical Temp. Trends in the U.S. and
melting, up from 5 percent in 1960. This is opposite to trends predicted by GCMs.
Effect of Urban Pop Growth." J. GEO. RES. #84, pp. 3,359-3,363. Shows dramatic
39. Reifsnyder, W.E., 1989: "A Tale of 10 Fallacies" AGRI FOREST. MET. A
drop in U.S. Southeast mean winter temperatures over 60 years.
skeptic's analysis of what's wrong with GCMs by top Yale environmental scientist.
14. Karl., T.R., et al., 1988: "Urbanization: Its Detection and Effect on U.S. Climate
40. Trenberth, K.E., et al., 1989: "Origins of 1988 N.A. Drought." TRANS. AMER.
Record." J.CLIM. #1, pp. 1,099-1,123. Shows that urban blas affects temperature
GEOPHYS. U.N. #69, p. 1067. Shows 1988 heat and drought entirely caused by
record in towns as small as 2,580 in population and could explain entire "warming
change in El Nino ocean current, not CO2.
trend" of Hansen observations.
41. Hansen, K., Karl, T.R., et al., 1989: "Are GH Effects Apparent in Climatic Record
15. Michaels, P.J., 1985: "Anomalous Mid Atmospheric Heights and Persistent
of Contigous U.S. States (1895-1987)?" GEOPHYS. RES. LTRS. #16, pp. 49-52.
Thunderstorm Patterns over Florida," J. CLIMATOLOGY #5, pp. 529-542. Doc-
Shows "no significant trend" in U.S. temperatures in 93 years.
uments substantial cooling of middle layers of U.S. atmosphere, free of urban bias.
42. Namias J., 1989: "Cold Waters and Hot Summers" NATURE #338, pp. 15-16.
16. Solow, A.R., 1987: "Testing For Climate Change." J of CLIM. APPI. MET. #26,
Shows 1988 temperatures had no connection with GW or CO2.
pp. 1,401-1,405. Shows climate trends not explained by CO2 trends.
43. Idso S., 1988: "GH Warming or Little Ice Age Demise?" THEORET APPL.
17. Solow, A.R., 1988: "Detecting Changes Through Time" J. CLIMATE, pp.
CLMATOL. #39, pp. 54-56. Shows modest warming trend of 20th century likely
290-296. Regression tests show unreliability of GCM models.
due to climbing out of Little Ice Age cold.
18. Bradley, R.S., et al., 1987: "Precipitation Fluctuations over N.H. Land Areas
44. Wood, FB Jr.: "1988 The Need For Systems Research on Global Climate
Since mid-19th Century." SCIENCE #237, pp. 171-175. Shows while temperatures
Change," SYSTEMS RES. #5, pp. 225-240. Shows component compartmen-
changed little, precipitation has increased over all agricultural latitudes.
talization approach on GCMs is inappropriate and may lead to inaccurate fore-
19. Scotto, J., et. al, 1988: "Biologically effective ultraviolet radiation: Surface
casts.
measurements in the U.S." SCIENCE #239, pp. 762-764. Shows UV-B radiation
45. Green, K., et al, 1977: "Field Response of Photosynthesis to CO2 En-
decreasing over the United States, contrary to ozone-hole scare.
hancement" ECOLOGY #58, pp. 687-692. Shows how CO2 protects forests from
20. Idso, S.B., 1984; "Empirical Evaluation of Earth's Surface Temperature in
SO2 (acid rain) deposition.
Response to Radiative Forcing." ARCH: MET. GEOPHYS. BIOCLIM SER B., #
46. Carlson, R.W., et al., 1982: "Photosynthetic and growth response to fumigation
34, pp. 1-19. Shows future warming will be far, far below model projections.
with SO2 at elevated CO2." OECOLOGIA #54, pp. 50-54. Shows CO2 protects
Accurately predicted current model revisions.
plants from SO2 deposition.
21. Ellsaesser, H.W., 1984: "The Climatic Effect of CO2" ATMOS. ENVIR J. 18,
47. Bryson, Reid, 1988: "Civilization and Rapid Climatic Change" ENVIR. CON-
pp. 431-434. Shows that deep convection over tropical latitudes will limit warming
SERV. #15, pp. 7-15. A thorough debunking of the predictive power of the GCMs.
far below projections.
48. Grotch, C., 1988: "Regional Intercomparisons of GCM Predictions and Histor-
22. Schlesinger, M.E., et al., 1987: "Climate Model Simulations of Equilibrium
ical Climate Data." U.S. Energy Department Conference. Shows that models do
Response to Increased CO2." REV GEOPHYS. #25, pp. 760-798. Shows Drastic
not agree, nor can they explain recent climate cycles.
inconsistencies between various GCM models.
49. Slingo, A., and Slingo, G.M, 1988: "Response of GCM to Cloud Long-Wave
23. Henderson-Sellers B., 1987: "Modeling Sea Surface Temperatures
Radiative Forcing." QUART J. ROY MET. SOC. #114, pp. 1,027-1,062. Shows
CLIM.CHG. J. #11, pp. 349-359. Shows more realistic appraisal of ocean-current
cloud effects are completely ignored or misunderstood in GCMs.
dynamics can cut warming by factor of 3.
50. Bryant E.A., 1987: "Climate warming, rising sea level and retreating coastline,
24. Henderson-Sellers, B., et al., 1988: "Tropical Deforestation and Climate
review and critique." AUSTRIAN GEOGRAPHY #18, pp. 101-113. Finds claimed
Change" CLIM. CHG. 13, pp. 43-67. Shows GCMs do not account for human
sea-level rise neither confirmed or confirmable. Shows major areas where levels
impacts on Earth's surface.
are falling.
National Institutes for the Environment
A Proposal
"It is time for the U.S. to treat the environmental health
of the nation and the planet with the same seriousness
it devotes to the health of its citizens."
National
Tropical deforestation. Mass extinction. Global climate change. Ozone
Institutes for the
depletion. Acid rain. Pollution and toxic wastes. Rapid human population
Environment
growth and dwindling natural resources. We face a world in which accel-
erating social change and global deterioration threaten our security and very
survival, especially that of our children. These changes present us with
historic opportunities and challenges. Solutions to many environmental
problems still lie within reach. But we cannot delay. The problems we face
will grow unimaginably more difficult and costly to fix with time.
In the 1940's the United States created the National Institutes of
Health to attack serious health problems like cancer and polio. NIH spon-
sored the pioneering research that led to many of the medical advances that
we enjoy today.
It is time for the U.S. to treat the environmental health of the nation
and the planet with the same seriousness it devotes to the health of its
citizens. It is time to create the National Institutes for the Environment
(NIE). The NIH was created from the peace dividend at the end of World
War II. The NIE can be created from the peace dividend at the end of the
Cold War.
The NIE is an idea whose time has come. A broad national consensus
is emerging that more effective action on the environment is needed. We do
Tropical deforestation in
not own the Earth; we are merely trustees. If we do not manage the Earth
Brazil to create pasture
more wisely, our children will hold us accountable for its destruction.
for cattle ranching.
Photo: S. P. Hubbell.
The Need for the National
Institutes for the Environment
Almost everyone today acknowledges that
targets research to find solutions to problems.
the environment is in trouble. Recent polls
We need the NIE to assess and assign priorities
reported in the New York Times indicate that
among the many environmental problems fac-
the environment is now the No. 1 concern of a
ing us today. We need the NIE, because we
majority of Americans.¹
need an agency that can foster mission-oriented
But there is disagreement about the extent
research to find solutions to the most critical
of the environmental crisis and even the nature
environmental problems.
of the problems. We still suffer from a profound
Most environmental research today is
ignorance about the true state of the environ-
short-term and narrowly focused, because of
Research on Health vs.
ment. This lack of scientific knowledge is hin-
grossly inadequate and unpredictable funding;
the Environment
dering our ability to develop and implement
but national and global environmental problems
($ Billions)
sound national policy and management plans for
demand long-term commitments and truly
the environment.
multidisciplinary research that the NIE would
$0 1
2 3 4 5 6
Our government can't enact enforceable
provide.
NIH
regulations and policies to solve environmental
Much present environmental research is of
NSF
problems unless a national consensus has been
uneven quality and is often conducted by
Health Research
DOE
reached about fundamental issues and values. As
government and the private sector to defend or
EPA
Environmental
a result, the U.S. faces a tidal wave of environ-
attack proposed regulations. The NIE would
Research
USGS
mental litigation. Poorly conceived environ-
seek scientific knowledge and lasting solutions
NASA
mental regulations based on limited or faulty
to environmental problems without bias or pre-
data can cost the nation billions of wasted
conceived notions.
dollars, and may even be environmentally
The United States currently
Currently there is no single, coordinated
spends billions on health
damaging.
source for environmental data and information.
and environmental research,
The U.S. needs better ways within the
Monitoring information of vital environmental
but most of this money is
Federal government to assign priorities to
importance is reported piecemeal, or is
directed at improving
environmental problems and search for their
restricted or simply unavailable. Development
human health. In fact, the
solution. We need the National Institutes for
of a successful national and global environ-
U.S. spends about 2200%
the Environment to set the priorities, provide
mental management effort depends critically on
more on health research
the critical environmental data, and do the
having accessible and accurate information. The
than on research to cure all
targeted research to solve the priority environ-
environmental problems
NIE would build a national library on environ-
combined. This imbalance
mental problems.
mental issues, open and accessible to all, and
cannot continue. The graph
Environmental research efforts currently are
would create and maintain a program in
lists total FY 1991 projected
largely fragmented, ad-hoc reactions to environ-
environmental statistics and risk assessment.
expenditures for investigator
mental crises, rather than carefully planned
Finally and most importantly, the U.S.
initiated research grants by
efforts to protect the environment through wise
faces a serious shortage of environmental
each agency.
management. We need the NIE, because the
scientists. We are unprepared to properly
U.S. needs a better understanding of the
manage and protect the environment, because
environment and the means to anticipate and
there is no one to do the work. The NIE would
prevent problems.
provide funds to train the next generation of
At present no Federal agency effectively sets
scientists.
national environmental research priorities or
I New York Times, January 25, 1990, page B9.
3
The Proposed National Institutes
for the Environment
The 4 main functions of the NIE would be
and serve society's environmental needs. This
to 1) sponsor environmental research via grants
new partnership would lead to:
to universities and other qualifying research
organizations; 2) increase the U.S. production of
Improved Environmental Research
environmental scientists; 3) develop a global
and Policy Decision-Making
environmental data base and national environ-
The NIE would promote research among
The Unique NIE Mission
mental library; and 4) promote public environ-
government agencies, academic institutions and
mental education.
industrial scientists, collaborations that cur-
The NIE would create a
Environmental research would be sponsored
rently are difficult to form under our present
new forum for environ-
through competitively awarded, panel-reviewed
system of environmental research. Such collabo-
mental scientists, managers,
grants to individual investigators as well as to
rations would work on common high-priority
and policy makers in the
multidisciplinary investigatory teams. The NIE
projects and strengthen the partnership among
U.S. Although the NIE
would sponsor fundamental and applied research
scientists, managers, and policy makers.
would increase funding for
environmental research
among the natural, engineering, and policy
Establishing the NIE would also improve
targeted on critical
sciences. Research would focus on complex
the process of identifying and ranking problems
problems, it would not
issues such as global climate change, sustainable
to set a national environmental agenda. The
replace existing research
resource use, inventory of biotic resources,
NIE would help set uniform standards and na-
efforts; it would complement
habitat destruction, species extinction, and the
tional strategies for environmental action.
and strengthen them. There
degradation of the human environment.
are many established
Accelerated Progress Toward
environmental research
Creation of NIE Institutes
Solving Environmental Problems
efforts currently under way
among government agencies.
A major focus of the NIE would be to satisfy the
The NIE would foster mission-oriented research
The critical missing link in
critical need for more research and better
based on its agenda of critical environmental
this research has been
coordination and communication among
problems. It would help determine which prob-
communication and
scientific researchers, environmental managers,
lems could be remedied or mitigated, and assess
coordination among diverse
and policy makers. To do this the NIE would
research progress toward solutions. It would
scientific disciplines and
establish a number of research institutes focused
monitor the success of practical applications in
particularly among
on major environmental problem areas, and
order to guide future research directions.
scientists, environmental
whose research would be targeted and coordi-
It would create an environmental database,
managers, and policy
makers. The NIE would
nated through the administrative umbrella of a
a library on the environment, and create an
supply this missing link.
guiding scientific committee that would set
environmental statistics and risk assessment
research targets and policy for all institutes.
program that would serve the research and
policy needs of the nation.
Effects of Establishing the NIE
Finally, it would provide graduate fellow-
Through these research institutes, guided by a
ships to train the next generation of environ-
scientific oversight committee, the NIE would
mental scientists.
forge a new way for all stakeholders in the
environment-academic and government
research organizations, environmental groups,
industry, and policy analysts-to work together
4
The Proposed Organization of the NIE
To stimulate national discussion of the NIE
firewood, timber and other products. It would
concept, we propose the following organization
also sponsor research on the economic valuation
for the agency. The NIE would house 5 problem-
of biodiversity.
oriented Institutes to fund extramural research
and 4 Intramural Centers to provide information
Institute for Ecosystem Management
and management support for the Institutes.
The Institute for Ecosystem Management would
sponsor research on the interactions of organ-
Institute of Biotic Resources
isms with each other and with their physical
The Institute of Biotic Resources would support
environment. Research topics would include
research to inventory the biological diversity of
ecosystem function in natural, stressed, and
the U.S. and the world and to explore its practi-
managed systems, responses of plant and animal
cal values for humanity. It would support taxo-
species to environmental change and the causes
nomic research and biogeographic surveys.
and consequences of habitat destruction.
Research topics would include the causes of ex-
tinction, methods of conserving germplasm and
Institute for Sustainable Resources
the maintenance of captive populations in ZOOS
The Institute for Sustainable Resources would
and arboreta. It would support research to dis-
sponsor research on the sustainable exploitation
cover and develop unutilized sources of useful
of energy, land, soil, water, mineral and biotic
natural products such as new medicines and
(e.g. forest) resources. Research topics would in-
pesticides and new sources for food, fodder, fiber,
clude sustainable agriculture and forestry,
Reporting to the Board of
Trustees would be a
Scientific Oversight
Board of Trustees
Committee made up of
eminent scientists selected
Scientific Oversight
on a rotating-term basis
Committee
from each of the Institutes
and from other federal agen-
Extramural
cies engaged in environ-
Research
Intramural Centers
mental research and
management. At-large
members from the public,
industry, nongovernmental
Library for the
Environment
environmental organiza-
Institute of
Institute for
Institute of
tions, and academic
Biotic
Ecosystem
Human
Data Management
Resources
institutions would also be
Management
Environments
& Risk Assessment
represented. The Committee
Environmental
would establish overall
Institute for
Institute of
Education
research policy and conduct
Sustainable
Climate
Resources
Change
or commission studies of
Grants Office
environmental problems for
possible adoption as targeted
research areas.
5
environmental engineering, restoration
to resources, conflict resolution over resources
ecology, and energy and renewable resource
and environment, and cultural survival.
engineering and policy.
Institute of Climate Change
Institute of Human Environments
The Institute of Climate Change would support
The Institute of Human Environments would
research addressing the effects of climate change
sponsor research on the interactions of human
on biotic systems, economic development and
societies with their environment. Research
policy issues. It would monitor biotic responses
topics would include pollution, waste disposal,
to climate change and conduct research to
the economics of environmental degradation
anticipate the effects of climate change on
and restoration, population growth in relation
ecosystems, food and agriculture.
The Intramural Centers
We envision a series of intramural centers in the NIE that would meet needs shared by all
of the NIE institutes. We propose the following 4 centers:
Center for Environmental Data
It would provide information services to
Management, Risk Assessment, and
all NIE institutes as well as other
Statistics would fill the critical need for
agencies, nongovernmental institutions
a national database on the environ-
and the general public.
ment. It would maintain environ-
Center for Environmental Education
mental monitoring records and support
would support programs on environ-
methods to catalog and inventory
mental education to improve public and
changing patterns of environmental
policy-maker understanding of
use. It would also analyze trends and
environmental issues and options for
assess the hazards of environmental
environmental management.
change. It would conduct economic
and policy analyses for all the institutes
Office of Fellowships and Grants The
and assist in the process of assigning
Office of Fellowships and Grants would
Ecologist studying the
research priorities.
administer fellowships and sponsored
pollination system of a rare
tropical tree.
research programs for all the institutes.
The National Library for the
Photo: S. P. Hubbell.
Environment would provide a center
for information on the environment.
6
The Cost of the NIE
Cost estimates for the NIE are presently
ronment, the environmental data center, and
being prepared, but ball-bark figures can be
the education center. These centers and admin-
given. It is estimated that about $100 million
istrative offices should be located in the Wash-
per year would be required as a minimum start-
ington, D.C. area. The startup cost of these
ing budget for research ($50 million), graduate
operations is about $20 million per year, exclu-
Estimated Annual NIE
training ($30 million), and intramural centers
sive of new construction and equipment costs.
Budget in 5 Years
and administration ($20 million). What would
($ Millions)
this $100 million buy?
Projected Costs of the NIE in 5 Years
The figures above are ball-park minimal startup
Item
Cost
Fundamental and Targeted Research
costs. They fall short of the funds that the NIE
Extramural Research
$400
A single-investigator award costs between
will need to train the numbers of environmental
Grants
$50
$100,000 to $200,000 per year, including over-
scientists that will be required to monitor the
Graduate Fellowships
and Grants
head. A multidisciplinary environmental project
environment and solve environmental problems.
Intramural Programs
$50
involving 10 senior scientists costs $2-5 million
The NIE will also need funding to support the
and Centers
per year. Thus $50 million would buy between
research of these newly trained scientists in the
Total $500
250-500 individual-investigator grants, or 10-25
coming decade. We estimate that the budget of
teams of scientists working on multidisciplinary
the NIE will grow to about $500 million per year
In comparison to military
projects, or some combination of individual
within 5 years (table at left).
spending, the proposed
investigators and research teams. If we assume
annual NIE costs are
that there are 10 broad fields of environmental
Where Will the Money Come From?
modest. One to five years of
full NIE support could be
research supported by the NIE, then we can fund
If the U.S. hopes to deal effectively with envi-
at most 25-50 grants per field per year, depend-
ronmental problems, new federal money must be
provided for the cost of a
single Stealth bomber ($500
ing upon the mix of awards to individual
allocated to solving them. The estimated costs of
million each). The possi-
scientists and interdisciplinary teams.
the NIE ($100-$250 million) are very modest by
bility of an environmental
health research ($5.5 billion) or military
catastrophe currently poses
Training More Environmental Scientists
($200+ billion) standards.
a much greater long-term
Today the cost of training one environmental
One source of new money comes from the
threat to U.S. security and
post-graduate scientist through the Ph.D. degree
present collapse of the Cold War. This presents
health than war. The U.S.
is between $18,000-$25,000 per year (tuition
the U.S. with an historic opportunity to redirect
must redirect its financial
plus stipend, excluding research costs), or a total
funds towards solving serious environmental
resources to the intensify-
of $100,000-$125,000 per Ph.D. Assuming a 4-5
ing problems of the
problems. What better time is the nation likely
environment.
year degree program, a funding level of $30 mil-
to have than now to create the NIE?
lion per year would produce 240-300 new Ph.D's
The NIE could also be created as part-public
per year, with a standing number of about 1200
and part-private institution, creating opportuni-
students in the pipeline. Assuming there are 10
ties for nongovernmental endowment support, as
broad fields of environmental research supported
has been done with the Smithsonian Institution.
by the NIE, then we can produce at most about
This approach would help to foment the
24-30 new Ph.D's per field per year.
partnership among industry, government, and
academic institutions on research to solve envi-
Intramural Centers and Administrative Costs
ronmental problems.
Central to the function of the NIE are the intra-
mural centers, including the library for the envi-
7
We, the undersigned, call
for serious study of the NIE
concept by Congress.
Creation of the National Institutes
Dr. Stephen P. Hubbell (Co-chair)
for the Environment
Princeton University
Dr. Henry F. Howe (Co-chair)
University of Illinois
Dr. Dean Abrahamson, Humphrey Institute for
Public Affairs, University of Minnesota
National and global environmental change
About the Committee for the National
Dr. A. Karem Ahmed, Partner, Environ Corp.
will be a dominant issue that shapes the eco-
Institutes for the Environment
Dr. James Brown, University of New Mexico
Dr. Lester R. Brown, Director, Worldwatch
nomic and geopolitical agendas of the next
In December, 1989 a group of about 30 scien-
Institute, Washington, D.C.
century. The National Institutes for the Envi-
tists from many disciplines concerned about the
Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, Director, Center for
Conservation Biology, Stanford University
ronment will help guide the nation and the
need for a more effective U.S. response to
Dr. Mohamed T. El-Ashry, V.P., World
world to a more secure and sustainable relation-
national and global environmental problems,
Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.
ship between humanity and the global environ-
met in Washington, D.C. to draft this white
Dr. K. Elaine Hoagland, Association for
Systematic Collections, Washington, D.C.
ment. Through an innovative feedback of
paper. Our goal was to put the discussion of the
Dr. Malcolm Gillis, Vice Chancellor,
science and policy development, and sponsor-
National Institutes for the Environment on the
Duke University
ship of individual research and multidisciplinary
national agenda as soon as possible.
Dr. Bernard Goldstein, Director, Institute of
Environmental Health Sciences, Rutgers
task forces, the NIE will provide a new and
University
better way to assign environmental priorities,
For further information on the NIE, contact:
Dr. Jonathan Haas, Vice President
for Research, Field Museum, Chicago
focus research, develop policy and educate the
Dr. Theodore Hullar, Chancellor
public on environmental problems of immense
Dr. Stephen P. Hubbell
Dr. Henry F. Howe
University of California, Davis
practical significance to human progress. The
Department of Biology
Department of Biological
Dr. William Jordan, President, Society of
Princeton University
Sciences (M/C 066)
Restoration Ecology, University of Wisconsin
United States should dedicate itself to the
Princeton, NJ 08544
University of Illinois
Dr. Thomas Lovejoy, Assistant Secretary for
environmental welfare of its citizens. A com-
(609) 258-6797
P.O. Box 4348
External Affairs, Smithsonian Institution,
Washington, D.C.
mitment to the NIE will be a legacy for the 21st
Chicago, IL 60680
Dr. John Matson, Director, Office of Operation
century of which the nation can be proud and
(312) 996-0666
Technology, The Johnson & Johnson Co.
for which the community of nations will be
Dr. Theodore Panyotou, Harvard Institute for
International Development, Harvard University
grateful.
Dr. George Rabb, Director, Brookfield Zoo
Dr. Robert Repetto, World Resources Institute,
Washington, D.C.
Dr. Daniel 1. Rubenstein, Princeton University
Dr. William D. Ruckelshaus, Chairman,
Browning-Ferris Industries, Houston, Texas
Dr. Arthur Sacks, Director, Institute for
Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin
Dr. Stephen H. Schneider, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo.
Dr. Robert Socolow, Director, Institute for
Energy and Environmental Studies,
Princeton University
Dr. Gus Speth, President, World Resources
Institute, Washington, D.C.
Dr. Jospeh Travis, Florida State University
Dr. David Wake, Director, Museum of
Vertebrate Biology, University of California,
Berkeley
Dr. Frederic Wagner, President, Association of
Ecosystem Research Centers, Utah State
University
NIE
Dr. Leonard Weinstein, Director, Ecosystems
Research Center, Cornell University
Dr. Edward O. Wilson, Harvard University
© 1990 by the Committee for the National Institutes for the Environment. All rights reserved.
Dr. Julian Wolpert, Woodrow Wilson School,
Paid for by the Committee for the National Institutes for the Environment.
Princeton University
8
Washington Post
May 9, 1990
PAGE /
U.S. Intends
first. On global warming, President
Bush continues to emphasize the
acientific uncertainties of the threat
could be replenished after the first
To Oppose
While some European nations at-
three years of activity.
beady have begun taking steps to
Sources said Sununu and Darman
Lurb emissions of man-made gases
were adamantly opposed to the plan
that trap solar heat.
out of concern that it might become
Ozone Plan
$ At an international conference in
a precedent for demands on the
Washington last month called by
United States to provide far more
Bush, European participants se-
aid to the Third World to compen-
yerely criticized the administration
sate for curbs on global warming
Sununu and Darman
for failing to take concrete action to
gases.
Are Said to Reject
reduce global warming.
The White House press office did
The United States did assume a
not return a reporter's call.
leadership role at the end of the
The administration's opposition is
Third World Program
Reagan administration when it
expected to renew congressional
pushed for the international accord
criticism of Bush's environmental
(signed in Montreal in 1987 that
record. The Senate last month voted
By Michael Weisskopf
;called for reducing world-wide con-
overwhelmingly for a proposal by
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sen. John H. Chafee (R-R.I.) that
sumption of CFCs by 50 percent by
called for financial assistance to the
U.S. delegates to an international
2000.
Third World to expedite world-wide
conference on chlorofluorocarbons
Even though 54 nations have ra-
phaseout of CFCs
(CFCs) have been instructed to op-
tified the protocol and most have
pose a plan supported by European
pledged to move for elimination of
governments that would provide
CFCs during treaty revisions this
$100 million to developing nations
June, efforts to preserve the stra-
to help them reduce the use of the
tospheric ozone layer that screens
ozone-depleting chemical, informed
out harmful ultraviolet rays will be
sources said yesterday.
frustrated if the Third World does
The plan. expected to be proposed
not curb its use of CFCs, according
in Geneva today, is designed to en-
to scientists.
courage such modernizing giants as
China and India, which together
India and China to join a 1987 treaty
make up more than a third of the
glohal
calling for drastic reductions by the
world's population, have ambitious
year 2000 of CFCs, a versatile gas
plans to provide their citizens with
used widely for refrigeration, pro-
refrigerators and other consumer
duction of polystyrene and cleaning
goods that use CFCs, and they ques-
Shange
of computer parts.
tion why they should deprive them-
Environmental Protection Agen-
selves of the cheap, plentiful chem-
cy Administrator William K. Reilly
ical.
and top State Department officials
recommended that the United
The protocol anticipated such
States support the plan, which was
concerns and included a provision in
ples.
developed by a working group of
which signatories pledged to "facil-
treaty signatories in recent months,
itate bilaterally or multilaterally the
sources said.
provision of subsidies, aid, credits,
But
their
recommendation was
guarantees or insurance programs
overridden by White House Chief of
for the use of alternative tech-
Staff John H. Sununu and Office of
nologies and for substitution prod-
Management and Budget Director
ucts" in developing nations.
Richard G. Darman, who are op-
According to sources, the propos-
posed to providing any additional
al expected to be introduced today
funds outside the existing programs
of international organizations such as
calls for a $100 million fund to help
the World Bank, the sources said.
Third World industries that use
The U.S. share of the fund would be
CFCs convert to alternative chem-
$25 million over three years.
icals, cover the extra costs of alter-
The U.S. position at the United
natives and identify additional ways
Nations-sponsored meeting is likely
to replace CFCs.
to prompt fresh criticism that the
The fund would be administered
Bush administration is lagging be-
by an international lending author-
hind other governments in propos-
ity, such as the World Bank, and
ing solutions for global environmen-
tal problems.
Last year the administration en-
dorsed a phaseout of CFCs only af-
ter the Europeans had proposed it
play out is one of the major questions
In the Ebb and Flow
faced by the interrelated sciences of glaci-
ology and climatology.
The present interglacial is 10,000 to
13,000 years along, and scientists say that
Of Ancient Glaciers
in at least the last half-million years, no
interglacial has ever lasted longer than
13,000 years. Over the last few years,
scientists have generally come to agree
Clues to a New Ice Age at
on what determines the timing of these
warm cycles and of the long, uneven cold
spells that culminate in full ice ages.
The glacial cycles are set in motion by
periodic wobbles in the Earth's rotation
Greenhouse effect could delay the onset of II
and changes in the tilt of its axis and the
shape of its orbit, occurring over tens of
thousands of years. The three overlapping
the cold, glaciologists say.
cycles control the timing of global warm-
The New York Times January 16, 1990
ing and cooling, and the long-term ad-
vance and retreat of the glaciers, by alter-
ing the angles and distances from which
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
the Sun's energy strikes the Earth.
The shortest cycle, which is repeated
T
HE climatic history of the last
mainly in periods of 19,000 and 23,000
half-million years is largely a his-
years, is that of the wobble in the Earth's
tory of ice and cold, punctuated
rotation. The wobble, or precession, is
every 100,000 years or so by brief,
much like that of a spinning top as it loses
glorious intervals of unusual warmth
speed. In the second cycle, the tilt of the
called interglacials. If nature takes its
Earth's axis as it orbits the Sun varies
course, scientists say, the current inter-
from about 22 degrees to about 25 degrees
glacial - the one in which human civiliza-
over 41,000 years. In the longest cycle, the
tion developed - should begin to end
Earth's orbit stretches slightly from near-
within the next 2,000 years or sooner.
ly circular to elliptical and back again
But nature may not take an unaltered
every 100,000 years or so.
course.
To some degree, said Dr. John Imbrie of
Unprecedented concentrations of heat,
Brown University, a leading glaciologist,
trapping carbon dioxide in the atmo₂
the two shorter cycles appear to exert a
sphere could extend the present intergla-
direct force on the climate, much as the
cial by a millennium or more and
Earth's movement about the Sun exerts a
transform it into a "super-interglacial"
direct influence on the change of seasons.
with average global temperatures higher
By itself the 100,000-year cycle does not
than any seen in the last million years, say,
appear strong enough to bring about di-
a number of scientists who study the
rect alterations in the Earth's climate.
advance and retreat of the great glacier
But scientists believe it sets off complex
Putting off the next ice age might seem
and far-reaching changes in the ocean-
an attractive prospect; in the depths of
atmosphere system that drives the cli-
the last one, 18,000 years ago, global tems
mate.
peratures averaged almost 10 degrees
This astronomical theory of glaciation,
colder than today's and much of North
as it is called, was first set forth in the
America was buried under ice averaging
a mile thick. Some experts say, however;
1920's by Milutin Milankovitch, a Yu-
that such a delay carries its own risks and
goslav mathematician, but confirmed
uncertainties. There has never been more
only in the 70's and 80's. Researchers
carbon dioxide in the air than now, they
did so by analyzing ocean sediment in
say, and since the burning of fossil fuels is
which the glacial cycles were reflect-
causing the concentration to rise with no
ed in the remains of plankton-like
end to the increase in sight, there is no
animals that live at particular tem-
reliable guide to the climatic changes and
peratures, and by studying the an-
disruptions it might cause.
cfent distribution of isotopes of oxy.
gen whose proportions vary with the
"We're going outside what nature has
temperature.
experienced in the recent past," said Dr.
The focus of research now is on
Nicholas Shackleton of Cambridge Uni-
understanding how all three cycles
versity in England, who has long been in
affect the workings of the dauntingly
the forefront of research on the glacial
complex ocean-atmosphere system
periods. "It's scary."
and how they will be affected by
In the last decade or so, scientists have
rising concentrations of carbon diox-
made great strides in understanding the
ide and other greenhouse gases.
causes and workings of the great glacial
Ice ages and interglacials differ
cycles. But how much the globe will warm
from each other in their duration and
up is a matter of intense argument, and
internal fluctuations, partly because
some glaciologists who believe that a su-
the interaction of the three astronom-
per-interglacial is on the way say it may
ical cycles is rarely the same. The ice
not last long enough to delay the world's
ages cannot be forecast exactly:
turn to a new ice age. How all this will
The Milankovitch cycles may also
starved in parts of Europe. The Hans
Cold Times, Warm Intervals
cause the pattern of ocean currents to
Brinker story in Hollard was sét in
The cause of these little ice ages,
change abruptly, altering the global
this period, as was the ordeal of
which have about one-tenth the im-
distribution of heat, say Wallace S.
Washington's army at Valley Forge.
pact of a full ice age, is uncertairf,
Broecker, a geochemist at the La-
In 1779-80, New York Harbor froze
although some scientists believe they
mont-Doherty Laboratory, and
solid.
may be related to variations in then
George H. Denton, a geologist at the
The pattern of Ice ages over the last
Sun's energy output. Smaller climatic
University of Maine. They believe
half-million years is that the ice ad-
oscillations also take place on scales
this sudden "flip," in which the
of a century or less, and even smaller
vances over periods of 100,000 years
ocean-atmosphere system drastical-
ones last a few years. There were
and then recedes more rapidly, over
ly reorganizes, sets off glacial periods
warm intervals in the last little lee
1,000 or 7,000 years. Dr. Broecker
and interglacials.
age, for instance; and in the United
says the climate itself changes even
Dr. Broecker and Dr. Denton say a
States, the relatively warm 1930'
more rapidly, and that the melting of
global "conveyor belt" of ocean cur-
gave way to the colder 50's, 60's and
the ice follows more slowly. "A lot of
rents now carries warm air to the
70's, to be followed again by the
things occur abruptly and more or
less together," said Dr. Imbrie.
warmer 80's. Some climatologista
The end of the interglacial and the
say an overall warming trend can be
North Atlantic, warming the northern
beginning of of the gradual decline
detected over the last century, but
latitudes and preventing glaciers of
nto ice-age cold may also come with
others dispute this.
ice-age scale from developing. Stud-
relative suddenness, Dr. Broecker
The causes of these shorter-term
says. "The way I would count this
oscillations are poorly understood,
ies of the ancient climate seem to
said Dr. Imbrie. Scientists believe
snow that the conveyor belt ceases in
nterglacial," he said, "it's already
that among the factors involved are
glacial times, the scientists say. They
3,000 years along," and the onset of
volcanic eruptions and the periodic/
believe that this is related to changes
the decline is overdue. "You can say
back-and-forth shifts in the surface
in the intensity of the seasons induced
we're approaching that precipice
temperature of the equatorial Pacific
by the changes in the Earth's orbit
10w," he added.
Ocean that have become known as
and attitude.
The effect of the expected global
the El Niño-La Niña cycle.
Coming: Global Cooling
warming from carbon dioxide pro-
Climatologists and glaciologists
Scientists calculate that in the nor-
duced by humans remains a mafor
are sure that both the oceans and
mal course of the cycle, apart from
uncertainty. Dr. Shackleton, of Cam-
atmospheric carbon dioxide figure
any warming induced by humans, the
bridge University, said carbon diox-
strongly in the longer-term climatic
present interglacial should give way
ide levels are now higher than they
shifts. One of the great discoveries of
within no more than 2,000 years to a
were at the height of the last intergia
the last decade, said Dr. Imbrie, was
gradual, uneven decline in global
cial, more than 100,000 years ago.
the finding by French and Soviet sci-
temperature that would bring moder-
"There is clearly going to be more
entists in 1987 that atmospheric car-
ate cold about 5,000 years from now
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
bon dioxide rose and fell in rough
and major ice ages about 23,000 and
than there has been in any previous
parallel with the ice-age cycle over
the last 150,000 years, covering two
66,000 years from now.
interglacial,' he added. "It will soon
interglacials. The scientists made
The interplay of the cycles means
be way above any previous natural
that each glacial period follows an
level, and it will disappear into the
uneven course, with relatively colder
their nuings by analyzing core sam
oceans on a time scale of 1,000 or 2,000
ples of Antarctic ice.
periods interspersed with relatively
years."
Whether the carbon-dioxide fluctu
warmer ones, but none of them as
Some say this means that the
ation is a cause or an effect of warm
warm as an interglacial. Average
plunge into a new ice age could be
ing and cooling is an unanswered
global temperatures in the past have
delayed by a similar interval. The
question of the chicken-and-egg sort.
reached about 60 degrees at the peak
peak of the super-interglacial, Dr.
"One of the really fundamental prob-
of an interglacial, and declined to
Broecker said, would probably occur
lems to be solved is why the carbon
about 50 degrees in the depths of an
no later than the year 2200; after that
dioxide changes, because that clearly
ice age. Nor does cooling or warming
would come a long, slow decline over
is involved in this ice-age. change,'
happen at the same time everywhere
centuries. But the timing is uncertain
said Dr. Imbrie. "Nature herself has.
in the world. In the most recent cli-
James Hays, another leading glaciol-
been changing carbon dioxide sub-
matic cycle, the coldest point in the
ogist at Lamont-Doherty, said "wel
stantially, and a Nobel Prize question
Northern Hemisphere came about
could go through the whole green-
is why that happens."
18,000 years ago, after which the cli-
house episode and come back to nor-
In one way or another, he and other
mate rapidly warmed.
mal" before the decline to the next
Life persisted even in the depths of
ice age begins.
scientists believe, the Milankovitch
cycles probably influence the way the
that last ice age. But for buried much
An unusually high level of atmo-
ocean circulates, setting in train a
spheric carbon dioxide, Dr. Broecker,
complex chain of climatic interac-
of Europe and North America, and
said, might cause the ocean-atmo-
locked - só much water that the
sphere system to flip into a new su-
tions, involving carbon dioxide, ice,
air temperatures, clouds, vegetation
global sea level fell by 350 feet, expos-
perwarm state as easily as it can flip
patterns, dust, atmospheric methane
ing broad stretches of the continental
to a glacial state, with unforeseen and
and a host of other factors.
shelf. A band of dry, windswept tun-
unprecedented consequences.
dra bordered the southern. fringes of
"We're living in a system that can
Cycles and Currents
the glaciers, and summers south of
do strange things," he said. "SmaH
Studies of ocean sediment indicate
that were shorter and cooler than
forcings have produced large things,
that in glacial times, carbon dioxide
now. In the Southern Hemisphere,
and to say a priori that this gas can't
is transferred from the upper waters
small ice sheets covered parts of Aus-
produce large changes is just bloody
of the ocean to the depths, said Ed-
tralia, New Zealand and Argentina.
insanity."
ward A. Boyle, a planetary scientist
Smaller fluctuations are superim-
R the Massachusetts Institute of
posed on these grand swings of cli-
Technology, in a paper at the Ameri-
mate. In the present interglacial, for
can Geophysical Union in San Fran-
instance, a warming trend about 1,000
cisco last month. One consequence,
years ago, called the Medieval Maxi-
he said in an interview, is that the
mum, enabled the Vikings to settle
ocean becomes more alkaline and
Greenland and vineyards to flourish
draws more carbon dioxide from the
in Britain. On the other hand, scien-
atmosphere. Lower levels of carbon
tists say that about every 2,500 years,
dioxide are associated with lower
a "little ice age" cools the globe. In
global temperatures. "There is prob-
the most recent of these, lasting from
ably something about the Milanko-
the 15th century to the 19th, the aver-
vitch cycles that alters the chemical
age temperature in Europe was near-
redistribution within the ocean," he
ly 3 degrees lower than today and
said.
mountain glaciers advanced all over
the world. Crops failed and villages
The New York Times Tuesday January 16, 1990
Memory Chip Cooperative
Is Officially Declared Dead
and LSI Logic.
Some computer industry execu-
tives have Indicated over the last few
months that ideological opposition to
By ANDREW POLLACK
lack of cooperation.
the idea of consortiums was not be-
"What happened today does not
hind the decision of companies like
Special to The New York Times
bode well for an industry that has
Apple Computer Inc. and Sun Micro-
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 15 -
made a decision that is a tactical one
systems Inc. to shun U.S. Memories.
U.S. Memories, a ground-breaking at-
rather than n strategic one," he said.
"We're kind of like an all-star
Rather, many computer companies
tempt by American computer compa-
sports team The industry has a lot of
have thought that such a venture is
mes to cooperate in producing mem-
not needed. In the last few months a
ory chips, was officially declared
superstars who are spectacular in
their own why but don't know how to
shortage of memory chips has turned
dead today by its organizers.
work together."
into a surplus and prices have
Sôme electronics industry execu-
The Japanese have teamwork, he
plunged.
tives said the bad experience in
said. "As a result, they keep winning
A Faster and Cheaper Path
trying to organize the consortium
while we gell knocked off one by one
Moreover, some computer compa-
might discourage others from trying
until it's too late to mount a counter-
nies found it faster and perhaps more
to form similar ventures as a way of
attack"
economical to arrange their own sup-
making American industry more
Mr. Kane said it was evident that
plies by signing long-term contracts
competitive.
the venture would fail at a meeting on
with Japanese or American suppli-
"The inability to achieve consensus
Wędnesday in Dallas attended by the
ers. In addition, I.B.M. has said it is
does not augur well for similar efforts
seven initial members as well as by
willing to license its chip technology
in the United States," said Wilfred
four computer companies still think-
to Individual companies.
Corrigan, the chairman of U.S. Mem-
ing of joining - the American Tele-
ories and also the chief executive of
phone and Telegraph Company, the
In addition there was widespread
the LSI Logic Corporation, a Silicon
Compaq Computer Corporation, the
skepticism over the business plan for
Valley semiconductor company.
NCR Corporation and Tandem Com-
U.S. Memories, which was revised.
There is some chance that a mem-
But executives of computer compa-
puters Inc.
nies that did not join say the failure of
At that meeting Mr. Kane made a
ory chip consortium will be formed.
U.S. Memories was related to particu-
last-ditch effort to salvage U.S. Mem-
Ralph Thomson, a trade consultant in
lar problems with market conditions
ories, presenting a plan that would re-
Palo Alto, Calif., said he was working
quire $350 million instead of the $500
on a deal involving a chip supplier,
and its business plan, and did not
million initially envisioned.
neither American or Japanese, that
mean other kinds of ventures should
Mr. Kane also said he was willing to
would enter an alliance with Amer-
be ruled out.
start with only $150 million from the
ican computer companies.
Mr. Corrigan spoke at a news con-
companies, with the rest to be raised
ference here about the decision to dis-
But U.S. Memories executives said
on Wall Street.
solve U.S. Memories because not
they had no plans to revive their ef-
enough computer companies were
Inadquate Commitment
forts. "If this is a difficult idea today,
willing to invest in the venture.
I don't see what will make it a better
The failure of U.S. Memories, which
But when the prospective contribu-
idea two years from now," Mr. Kane
was intended to reduce the reliance of
tions from each company were put on
said.
American computer companies on
the board, it was clear that an ade-
Japanese chip suppliers, is likely to
quate commitment would not be
undermine moves in Washington to
forthcoming even to meet the vastly
provide Government assistance in
reduced target, Mr. Kane said. He
areas like high-definition television.
said he was disappointed by the small
Opponents of such efforts are likely to
commitment the Hewlett-Packard
ask why the Government should help
Company, one of the original seven
the industry when it appears unwill-
Investors, was willing to make. "The
ing to help itself.
other six members maintain their
"I think the Hill is going to be very
commitments," he said.
disappointed," said Richard Iverson,
president of the American Electron-
The other six members were the In-
ics Association, referring to Con-
ternational Business Machines Cor-
gress.
poration, the Digital Equipment Cor-
In an emotional speech here, San-
poration, Advanced Micro Devices
ford L Kane, the president of U.S.
Inc, the Intel Corporation, the Na-
Memories, criticized the computer in-
tional Semiconductor Corporation
dustry for shortsightedness and a
The Washington Post Friday 12, 1990
NOAA's New Pilot Charts Course for the 1990s
Expanded Agency Role Likely on Global Warming, Uzone Depletion, Coastal Pollution
rise of between 4 and 6 degrees Fab-
By William Booth
renheit.
Washington Post Staff Writer
Knauss said he feels it is not his role to be an
It is not difficult to recall that the new admin-
activist, but "to provide President Bush with the
istrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
best technical information we can. NOAA
Administration (NOAA) was a professor of
entists based at Princeton University are among
oceanography.
the five groups who are producing large comput-
Snowy haired, bespectacled, tweedy and wear-
er simulations of what climate will be like in the
ing a bow tie, John A. Knauss (pronounced KA-
next century, when greenhouse gases are ex-
nouse) was recently being given a tour of a
pected to be double their current concentrations.
NOAA ship that had just returned from a voyage
Other noaa scientists are examining climate
to map the ocean floor. Ever the academic,
records and watching sea level so as to detect
Knauss dawdled over a new chart that showed
the first signal that the Earth is indeed warming
the twisting canyons that lie beneath the waters
because of the accumulation of greenhouse
of Monterey Bay in California. His tour leader
gases.
seemed to want to move on. Knauss didn't seem
Beyond monitoring and predicting global
to care. His finger traced with admiration the
warming, NOAA is also responsible for keeping
submerged canyon on the map.
tabe on the health of marine habitats and constal
"This was a river once," be said to a couple a
environments.
journalists tagging along. "You can see how the
"Given the amount of coast to Alaska, rd say
river cut this canyon. You can see the ancient
overall the health of coastal waters are pret-
riverbed. Oceanographers are going to love
by good. But given places like the Houston Ship
this!"
The former 64-year-old educator from the
Channel, I'd say we have a long way to go,
Knauss said.
Graduate School of Oceanography at the Univer-
"Because of the concern that people have had
sity of Rhode Island, with degrees from MIT and
for ocean pollution and coastal pollution, we have
PLAYERS
made considerable progress. We are in made
etter shape than if nothing had been done.
the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, has taken
Whether we have turned it around, and made
the helm of a low-profile Washington agency that
mprovements, or whether we are like the Red
is being called upon increasingly to take leading
Queen in Alice in Wonderland, where we have k
roles in the government's response to such
in like hell just to stay in place, is a Tittle less
threats as global warming, ozone depletion and
lear," be said. "While we are making consider-
degradation of coastal environments.
ble improvements in respect to sewage systems
Knauss believes NOAA will face its greatest
ad what you' re allowed to dump and put into the
challenges in the 1990s, when policymakers will
John Knause says "the environment has reached
rys and estuaries, on the other hand you have
be clamoring for level-headed and authoritative
center stage in this country and in the world."
increasing population that is moving to the
information about the health of the planet's air
lasts."
and water.
"In the previous administration, it was no Be-
casting the weather, tracking hurricanes, keep-
Despite its broad mandate, funding for NOAA
ing tabs on coastal pollution, chasing fish poach-
s remained relatively flat throughout the
cret that environmental issues were not a high
priority," Knauss said in a recent interview on his
ers, measuring' stmospheric ozone, assessing oil
180s, with most additions in the budget ear-
plans for NOAA. Knauss said that scientists with
spills and predicting and detecting global climate
arked for big-ticket items. Indeed, NOAA reg-
trly pleads that it is too bankrupt to keep op-
NOAA and particularly those at the Environmen-
change.
ating the Earth-observing Landsat satellites.
tal Protection Agency suffered under the Reagan
One of the areas of most immediate interest is
addition, about half of NOAA's 23 ships lie idle
administration. But, Knauss said, "it is clear that
global warming, which many scientists think will
port, while four of its weather satellites are
President Bush feels quite differently about the
develop gradually during the next century as
W blind, and can take only minimal data.
environment."
greenhouse gases such as carbon diostide and
Knauss says the agency, which was once run
"The environment has reached center stage in
methane accumulate in the atmosphere. On this
attorneys, has come to terms with its regu-
this country and in the world," he said. I've been
issue Knauss appears to share the conservative ory role. "In retrospect, I think NOAA over-
telling people we are the Earth systems agency.
views of the White House science adviser, D. cted to its regulatory responsibilities. It
We are it. Independent of good or bad budget
Allan Bromley. Knauss takes the threat of sig- lught of itself more and more of a regulatory
years, we will take on increasing importance."
nificant warming seriously, he said, but he thinks ency and less as a service agency," he said.
A part of the Commerce Department, NOAA
that there is still great uncertainty over its mag- le also said he hopes to beef up the agency's
is one of the broadest and most unusual agencies
in the federal government. With a budget of $1.2
nitude.
lity to use its own vast sources of data. As it
billion and 2,200 oceanographers, meteorolog-
"There are a lot of highly credible scientists ads now, "it's like a library, where there is no
ists and other scientists, as well as a uniformed
who have a range of opinions on how great the arian, no card catalog, no book shelves."
corps of 400 sailors and pilots, NOAA operates
warming will be," said Knauss, who produced a a tial the commission late 1960s, Knauss that served on the pres-
23 ships, a small squadron of aircraft and a half-
simple
graph
that
shows
that
while
some
scien-
gave
birth
to
NOAA.
tists predict little or no warming, and others pre-
NOAA, with its perennial budget problems,
dozen satellites in orbit.
The agency is responsible for monitoring sola
dict dramatic heating, most appear to fall in the
ed out as Knauss had hoped?
flares, operating meteorological and Earth-im
middle range, forecasting a global average tem-
'm not despondent," Knauss said. "We've
aging satellites, mapping the beeas floor.fore
E up."
The Wall Street Journal Friday Janusry 12, 1990
The Japanphobes
So subtle, in fact, that the Japanese
must wonder what they're paying for. Ja-
Want Disclosure?
pan's triumph in last year's trade-sanction
Let's include trade "experts" too.
spat was to be cited by its "friend," the
Chalmers Johnson, an academic critic both
J.S., for a mere three trade violations.
OK, Let's Disclose
of free trade and the Japan lobby, has
When Japanese money bought a minority
been affiliated with the Berkeley Round-
share of the Rockefeller Center last year, a
table on the International Economy. The
que and cry rose about the "buying" of
Roundtable won't accept foreign money,
Pat Choate is a passionate critic of Ja-
merica. Try to find a politician on Capitol
but does take grants from such U.S. corpo-
pan. He's also a vice president of TRW
[ill who'll say something nice about Japan
rations as National Semiconductor and In
Inc., a U.S. high-tech company that would
hese days. If this is their best, maybe the
tel. Full disclosure should cut both ways.
certainly benefit from less Japanese com-
Japanese should think about hiring Mikhail
petition. Should this personal Interest dis-
Gorbachev's lobbyists.
Disclosure is not of course what this Ja-
qualify Mr. Choate from debating U.S.
Another complaint is that the Japanese
panphobia is about. Its real intention is to
'trade policy?
hire former U.S. government officials to
taint and discredit any American who
Or how about Clyde Prestowitz? As a
represent them-the notorious "revolving
doubts the wisdom of picking trade fights
Reagan-era trade official, Mr. Prestowitz
door." In other words, the Japanese do
with Japan. This is the only possible mo-
negotiated a cartel in computer chips that
what every domestic lobby does. Motorola
tive, for example, behind the recent attack
created a windfall for U.S. chip makers.
Inc., a major trade lobbyist, has perfected
by Rep. Richard Gephardt (D., Mo.) or
Now the chip industry's lobbying arm, the
the revolving door. At least three of its se-
White House economics adviser Michael
Semiconductor Industry Association, pays
Boskin.
nior employees are former U.S. trade offi-
him $2,000 a pop to speak at trade "sympo-
cials, while a former employee is now an
The House Majority Leader and 11
sia." Does this make Mr. Prestowitz or
assistant secretary of Commerce, as is the
other House Japan-bashers released a let-
Mr. Choate a corporate toady?
son of Motorola Chairman Robert Galvin.
ter implying a conflict of interest between
The fair answer is no. The pair's policy
Subtle corruption?
Mr. Boskin and Japan's Ministry of Fi-
arguments should stand or fall on their
At the jingo-level, it's possible to argue
nance. While a Stanford professor, Mr.
merits. But this new Conflict of Interest
that Motorola is red-white-and-blue while
Boskin had been an unpaid member of an
Standard has been put on the table by
the Japs want to dominate the world. But
economics research institute loosely affili-
Messrs. Choate and Prestowitz themselves.
in today's global economy, does it make
ated with the MOF. The institute had no
They're two of the leaders in a campaign
sense to distinguish between a Honda that
policy role and he'd resigned before he
to discredit American free-traders as sake-
makes cars in Ohio and a Texas Instru-
joined the White House. The implication is
sippers beholden to Tokyo. Long-simmer-
ments that exports computer chips from
tawdry, even by Mr. Gephardt's standards,
Japan?
hut he knows Mr. Boskin is a powerful in-
Potomac Watch
On trade issues at least, foreign inter-
ernal advocate for open trade. (As it hap-
ests often coincide better with American
ens, even Mr. Prestowitz has had his own
consumer interests. And if foreigners are
'study'' relationship with the MOF; he of-
By Paul A. Gigo
excluded from public debate, the dominant
fers "thanks" in his 1988 book.)
voice left will be that of U.S. producers-
Japan's evolution from ally to ad-
namely, the organized business and labor
versary is Washington's most disturbing
ing in the background here, the campaign
lobbies. So long as all of Washington re-
trend. The "debate" has moved through
is now breaking into public view. Mr.
mains a special interest bazaar, the only
self-criticism into jingoism and now into
Choate is writing a book about it. Lloyd
fair policy is to let every interest com-
what seems a form of know-nothingism:
Bentsen, the Texas Democrat and erst-
pete.
It's all right to be associated with Japan,
while free-trader, plans to air the subject
The critics do have a point about truth
so long as you also attack it. What the U.S.
in Senate hearings. Washington's Nippon
in-advertising; funding U.S. experts
needs are more people who understand Ja-
neurosis is looking more and more like
Japan ish't always appare If
pan and economics, not more conspiracy
clinical paranoia.
is the issue, then let K all hang out. The
theoriste
This bogeyman theory of trade relations
Economic Policy Institute. a think-tank
is laid out in the latest issue of the New
promoting trade protection, receives about
Republic magazine. (The piece had been
$500,000 a year from labor unions. The
rejected earlier by U.S. News for not meet.
steel and textile lobbies also contribute.
ing its journalistic standards.) It seems
Perhaps every EPI study should come
that Japan pays a great deal of money to
with a consumer warning label: The poli-
hire Washington lobbyists. Japanese also
cies contained here would allow companies
contribute to American think-tanks and un-
and unions to extort monopoly profits and
iversities. Somehow, the article says, all of
wages.
this "if creating a subtle climate of cor-
ruption."
THE SCIENTIST
VOLUME 6, No. 18
THE NEWSPAPER FOR THE SCIENCE PROFESSIONAL
September 14, 19
Plant Science Job Horizon
Observers See Healy Tenure At NIH Helm
Dimmed By Lack Of Funding
In Jeopardy If Clinton Is Elected President
Researchers are porturbed
WARREN
by the weak support being
WESSELS:
Sees career
Officials, scientists, and
given to a discipline that
andscape us
they consider vital
pretty Mal.
others agree that her
close ties to Bush policies
to planet Earth's survival
strung by political consid
sitions
are
could cost the agency
erations, they shouldn't be
By CLEMMIT
being created.
director her joh
heading up the National
But while
Institutes of Health."
the
current
Rep. Patricia School-
The job marker for agricultural set-
entists has shown little or no net
downture in
BY SCOTT VOGGEBERG
aprie
der (D.-Colo.) who is
growth over the past several years
the quantity of
cochairwortian of the bi-
Fortunately in a sense, the name
graduates may suit today sweak win-
More than ever before. the future
partisan Congressional
playment pienire. it may damage the
BERNADINE HEALY: Position
weak economic climate that's
direction and leadership the Na-
on fetal tissue research cited
Caucus for Women's Issues. is ap-
slowed job creation has also slowed
field in the long run. some agricul-
tional Institutes of Health will
parently still upset over the letter
the flow of students through the ag-
tural scientists say. These research-
hinge on the outcome of a United
incident However, Schroeder and
ricultural science departments, say
ers project a possible shortage of
jected to the bill's language requir-
States presidential election. There
other congressional representa-
university officials nationwide.
qualified agricultural scientists if the
ing attention to women's health is-
is strong feeling allows many key
tives, including caucus Cochair-
economy strengthens during the
sues when that initiative was already
Thus, the production of Ph.D.x
congressional staffors and other
woman, Rep. Olympis Snowe
coming decade
under way Another sore point for
today generally matches the number
Washington observers chat NIH
(R-Maine) declined to speak Un
of jobs available most graduates.
Warren Wessels. assestant dean of
many in Congress and the biomedi.
director Bemadine Healy. because
the record concerning their degree
the College of Agriculture at the
cal community Was her assertion in
even in period when few new po-
she appears to be inextricably
of support for Healy. Dut. a the
the letter that a fetal tissue bank de-
linked (i) the Bush administration
time of the letter-writing incident
pending on ectupic pregnancies, in-
and its policies. will be removed if
Schroeder was quoted in a June 10
stead of elective abortions. as a
Arkansis Guv. Bill Clinton is
article in the Chronicle of Higher
source was feasible and should be
clected.
Education (S. Burd, page A21):
After 5 Years, Heated Controversy
tried out for a year.
Although carly in her terrure,
"We fell double-crossed. She
Those voting against the bill used
Healy was widely thought of as
[Healy] has come for help when
the letter to justify their "no" vote,
Persists In Science Copyright Case
sumeone who would have re.
[Rep.] Dingell has been on her
and that angered illaupporters, who
mained at the agency's helm no
case: she has code to us for more
un June 24 failed, by a slim margin,
matter who might be elected in the
funding, and we always did it; and
Weissmann 11. Freeman
when she was 19, and by age 30 her
to override the Rush veto.
fall of 1992, times have changed.
she has told us how great all these
battle is revived as
supervisor was calling her one of the
Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.)
Congressional aides, who are
women's-health goals are: and the
nation's premier Authorities ou bil-
says that following the letter, "it's 30
generally constrained from mak.
next thing we know everyone was
Dingell subcommittee
ary imaging in nuclear medicine.
hard to trust her now." Slaughter
ing attributed comments. were
running Around with this letter."
decides to launch a
Yet now. at AGE 11. Weissrnann is
says she will not support Healy's
A staffer with the House Sub-
unemployed Since 1987. she has
retention - NIH director if Clinton
committee on Health and the F.n-
new investigation
INI
is elected. "I think a scientist is a
vironment, says that nowadays.
scientist. and if a scientist is so ham-
on
Page
BY RON KAUFMAN
Rep. Louise Slaughter:
Healy is "hamstrung
Since the age of two, Heidi
by political
Weissmann says, she always
wanted to be a doctor. She
considerations."
'NIH Week' To Showcase
started college when she was
15. began medical school
HEIDI
WEISSMANN:
Still
unemployed
Advances In Biomedicine
able to speak off the record for this
article. According to one well-
INSIDE
placed aide. Healy "had a halo"
into
community at NIH, the (estival
when she was first appointed en-
form
has proved to have a wider draw.
3
joying 3 reputation as an assertive
1002
appealing to many regional hio-
Physica Get-Together
and highly qualified woman who
medical researchers.
Point: Self-Promotion
was an advocate of increased at-
NIH director Bernadine Healy
Has No Place in Science
11
tention to women's health issues.
will deliver an opening talk, mark-
Counterpoint: its Role
"She had the potential to outlast a
ink the first time a director has
Clinton victory," says the aide. But
addressed festival participants.
is To Promote
11
the issue that most seriously
Healy is expected. to speak about
Good Science
eroded her support from both male
upcoming organizational changes
Explaining Biotech
12
and female House members was a
at the institutes, in particular. the
BY FRANKLIN HORE
Agricultural Research
June 3 letter from Healy addressed
October 1 merger into NIH of
to Sen George Mitchell (D-
three research institutes formerly
Funding In Peril
14
The fifth NIH Research Festival,
Maine). which defended President
allied with the Alcohol. Drug
Pulsed-Fleid Techniques
an in-house showcasing of hun-
Bush's expected veto of the NIH
Abuse, and Mental Health Ad-
Advance Electrophoresis 18
dreds of research projects sup-
reauthorization bill. The bill not
ministration (ADAMHA).
ported by the 13 institutes
Career Opportunities
25
only would have removed the
Organizers hope the planned
operating under the National In-
Bush administration han on fetal
events will bring together re-
Equipment Marketplace
30
stitutes of Health aegis, will be
21
rissue research, but also would
searchers who may he working in
CORPORATE MERGING
held it the Bethesda, Md., campus
have mandated attention to
different laboratories but on as-
September 21-25. Events sched-
women and minority health issues.
pects of the same problem, allow-
uled for NIH's 16,000 researchers
In the letter. Healy said, "I
ing them to compare notes.
and other staff include five sym-
would concur with the recommen-
"Mostly, it's aimed at busic 5ci-
AREI
posia. 31 workshops. three poster
dation to the President to ven the
entists." says Tom Flavin. NIH
sessions with more than 450 pre-
Bill." She wrote that the bill
special projects officer. "The
sentations, and a scientific equip-
"micromanages some of
point is to try and be crossculting.
ment show.
NIH's important research
to take an area of research and
PAPER:
Although originally planned to
then [bring in] scientists from Var-
00033
programs. Healy also ob-
ensitive
serve the intramural research
and Page J,
certal
C OSSP
WHO:E 9-23-92
SENT BY
8
THE
SCIENTIST
September
14,
1992
NEWS
Will NIH Seek A New Director If Clinton Wins In November?
PHIL SHARP: "I find
Dr. Healy a purely politi-
call person," making the
director's job "a more
political position
has apparently ided the
HEALY ON THE HILL: "She
hiomedical community
doesn't have a great many allies
into opposing camps of
here," says an aide.
supporters and detractors.
Among issues that have
stirred strong sentiments
doesn't have u great many allies
in the past have been
here." When one combines Healy's
Healy support of the
previous position as deputy director
NIH effort to patent par-
of the White House science office
tial DNA sequences. and
during the Redgan administration
the foreing out of James
with the letter, which "showed
staffer. "I think everyone is im-
Watson as head of the
where her loyalties lie." he says. it
comments from some of the hun
pressed with what Healy doing at
Human Genome Project. Lately. it's
would be inconceiv able for her to
dreds of biomedical researchers. The
NIH." His prediction IN that.
plan is intended to set forth a clear
been the strategic planning process
stay on if Clinton is elected
Clinton is elected. Healy will "stay
that's been rolling the waters.
But Healy is by no means hereft
mission and prioritized goals for the
in place." The staffer acknowledges.
Among those providing acco-
of congressional support. expecially
instrutes guthered under NIH and. in
however. that there is lingering ill
lates is Dani Bolognesi. director of
in the Senale and even among Dem-
doing so, act as a kind of marketing
will over the letter. There feeling
the Center for AIDS Research at
ocrals. "On this end. [Sen.] Barbara
tool with Congress. Hundreds of
Duke University Medical Center.
Mikulski is a very strong supporter
that she turned her back on people
pages of reports from the series of
who supported her." he says "But
who has been involved in formulat-
of Dr. Healy." says a spokesman for
she really has made on effort to ad.
meetings that went into the plan's
ing the strategic plan for NIH. "I
Mikulski. a Democrat from Mary-
formulation were gathered but the
dress the concerns that people have
think she's doing a great job and will
land. The aide will not speculate,
final product of that process will be
had about the NIH." He particularly
100-page document due for release
get better and better if she stays in
however. 3TL whether Mikulski
lauds her leadership on women's
the job longer," he says.
would support Healy in a Clinton
in October after being cleared by the
SID GILMAN: It would be a "real
health issues and efforts to produce
Many researchers have expressed
administration.
Department of Health and Human
pity" M Healy is sacked following
a strategic plan
strong reservations about the strate-
a Clinton victory.
And, says one Senate Labor and
Services, NIH officials say.
The strategic plan 14 being devel-
gic plan on grounds that if was at first
Human Resources Committee
Just as congressional sentiments
oped by NIH staff and incorporates
if chaotic process and that it poten-
are divided. Healy's forceful style
tially imposes wo much top-down
strategic plan, has nothing but praise
management (B. Metheny and S.
for Healy, "Sbe's done a great deal
The Binding Site Inc.
Halcy, The Sciential, May 11, 1992.
of innovative work, and she has vi-
page 1). But Bolognesi, who is part
sion and insight," he says. He adds
AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE
HUMAN IgG SUBCLASSES
of a panel of researchers working
that it would be "a real pity" if she
ANA Fluorascence kits HEp2. Rot and Human Tissue
with NIH on the plan's formulation,
Components available separately.
Kits for Quantitation of Human lgGI, 1gG2, IgG3, IgG4:
thinks the strategic planning process
were asked to leave office following
a Cliston victory.
ENA Sc sening and typing kits with results in two
Nepholometric Kits 0 minute dssay
is & great way of focusing and defin-
EUSA Kits Precoated wells
But not everyone involved in the
hours.
ing NIH in itself and to Congress.
RID Kits Single dilution
NIH strategic planning process has
ds
DNA
Cathidia screening kit
"You can't go to Congress and
Antigon Specific ELISA Kits
good things to say either about the
ELISA for quantitation
for quantitation of igG and /gGl/lgG2 antibodies to
say you just want to support good
plan or about Healy. Out researcher
science." he says. "You do have to
Hemophilus, Pneumococcus and Telanus
from a prominent East Coast insti-
have 9 plan. NIH has to stand for
HUMAN RID KITS
Late, speaking un the condition of
ANIMAL RID KITS
something."
For quantitation of:
anonymity. says the strategic plan.
lgG, A, M, P. E. Kappa, Lambda
For quantitation of:
18 Complement Components
Mouse IgG, A, M, lgGl, 2a. 2b 3
6 Binding Proteins
Kat IgG. A, M, IgGl, 2a. 2b, 2c. Two ranges available
6 Acute Phase Proteins
for normal serum and for tissue culture supernalant.
George Abrabam: "Can you remember any NIH
12 Cloiting/Flbrinolysis Proteins
Cow, Cat, Dog, Donkey, Good, Horse, Rabbit and
Sheep Immunoglobulins.
director that's gotten such notoriety?"
ANTISERA
lgG Subclasses and Serum Proteins. FITC, RITC, PEROX, ALKPHOS, BIOTIN Conjugates Available.
100+ Polycianal Monaclonai, Affinity Purified antibodies and conjugates to Human and Animal Immunoglobulits,
The process of drawing up & plan
SPECIES SPECIFIC ANTISERA
ming meetings were hardly the open
for the future direction of NIH ne-
Affinity Purified antisera to Human, Pig. Cow, Robbit. Chicken, Deer, Kongaroo, Mouse/Rot, Sheep, Dog. Car and
forums for discussion they were
search has been a valuable contribu-
Horse with NO CROSS REACTIVITY to the other species.
billed as. 1 felt it was a complete
tion by Healy, says George
waste of time." she says. "I felt un-
CELL SURFACE MARKERS
Abraham, an immunologist at Und-
free to say what was on my mind.
CDP, CD1 CD15, CD21, CD23. CD44. CD71, CD72, CD74.
versity of Rochester School of Med-
And virtually everyone I have talked
SOLUBLE CD23 EUSA
icine. "You have to give Healy credit
to had the same experience." As for
For quantitation of soluble CD23 in:serum, tissue cultura and other biological fluids.
for trying to do something like this."
NIH director Healy: "I'd be happy to
be says. "To be quite Frank, some-
see her go.'
SERA AND PROTEINS
thing like this should have been done
Philip Sharp, head of the depart.
HUMAN MYELOMA SERA
PURIFIED IMMUNOGLOBULINS
sooner'
lgG, A, M, D, E, lgG1, IgG2, lgG3 and IgG4 myeloma
Human. Mouse, and Rot IgG, IgA, IgM and IgG
Abraham unabashedly likes the
sera available as Kappa or Lambdo
subclasses of greater than 95% purity
assertive director. "Can you remem-
CLARIFICATION
BOVINE ALBUMIN POWDERS AND SOLUTIONS
ber any NIH director that's gotten
The article "Survey: More Women
such houriety? She's given NIH &
FrV, pH 5.2, pH 7.0, Crystallized, Faity Acid Free, Very Low Endoroxin
Entering Chemistry, But Career
new face and a new identity," he
35%, 30% and 20% Solutions.
Advancement Poses Problems
says. And that "new face" has been
showing up outside the usual science
(The Scientist. Aug. 17, 1992. page
1) imprecisely characterized Bryn
venues. in such places as Working
The Binding Site Inc.
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Woman magazine. which features
Mawr College in Pennsylvania as A
5889 Oberlin Drive
AND A FULL CATALOG
Healy on its September cover.
cood institution. While many men
Sid Gilman, chairman of the de-
carn credits by attending classes at
Suite 101
BINDING
Call 1 (800) 633-4484
the institution, Bryn MAWE matric.
partment of neurningy at University
San Diego, CA 92121
ulates only women students on the
of Michigan Medical School, also
undergraduate level.
a panel involved in drawing up the
Circle No. 182 on Reader Service Card
C
is
OSTP
9-23-92 02PM
SENT BY
NEWS
September 14. 1992 THE SCIENTIST 9
ment of biology atthe Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. is not
ity potential candidates were ex-
pleased with the over-politicization
cluded because they would not take
of the office of NIH director. And
or could not pass the "litmus test" on
Sharp sees Healy as the ultimate ex-
opposition to abortion and the use of
pression of a process that's been
fetal tissue in research and treatment
under way over since the director-
he says,
ship became a presidential appoint-
Rur if Healy were to step down
ment in the 1970s.
"I find Dr. Healy a purely politi-
HEALY IRREPLACEABLE?:
There no reason to panic. he says.
One observer SAYS many are
"I think there are people our there
cal person and very much identified
qualified to be NIH director.
who can fill that job quite satisfacto-
with the political aspirations of this
rily.
administration. and that has made Il
Of course. similar confidence in
a more political position." he says.
the ease or filling the post was ex.
While he favors the strengthc of
pressed by White House science of-
the director's position -as Healy
has helped achieve- he would like
REP. LOUISE SLAUGHTER She says that in light of Healy's letter on
fice director Allan Bromley back on
Bush's fetal lissue research policy. it's SO hard to trust her now."
gaarden slepped down following
June 27. 1990. almost a year after
to jettison the political haggage
Hush's election. Roben Rosen-
Wyngaarden left the post (Jeffrey
that's been loaded on board.
even on the map yet
zweig, president of the Association
plan will be of value to the next
Mervis. The Scientist, July 23. 1990.
So what does Clinton have to say
Healy's press side. Johanna
of American Universities, says that's
about Healy's future? "There's no
director."
page 1(1). "There is a clear recogni-
Schneider. when asked what might
not probable Two things led to the
answer to that." says a campaign
One troublesome issue for some
tion throughout the administration
spokesman He says decisions on
happen under is Clintoir presidency,
in the science community is whether
20 months of vacancy before Healy
that (the NIH directorship] is a posi-
was appointed. he says: For one, the
who would be requested to submit a
says, "I don't think there's any way
3 (linton victory would equate to
tion we must fill and fill quickly." he
pro forma letter of resignation in the
to respond to that question." But as
Hush administration was generally
another long period of interim lead-
said, And Healy was not confirmed
for the strategic plan. she says. "No
slow in filling Posts and did not make
event of a Clinton victory are "not
ceship for NIII, as happened after the
by the Senate as the new director of
matter what happens the strategic
the scarch for a new NIH director a
Reagan-appointed James Wyn.
NIH until nine months later, on
high priority. In addition, many qual-
March 21, 1991.
Research Festival Draws NIH Investigators, Regional Visitors
Commission from "
inus institutes who are all approach-
lergy and Infectious Diseases]
Other talks at the symposium will be
Alumni Symposium in Honor of Dr.
"The Origin of Plagues," "The Role
the largest building on campus and
of ADAMHA programming will
ing the same area from different per-
Sheldon M. Wolff" on Sept. 21, will
site of the speeches, workshops, and
come into NIH as the National Insti-
spectives. There's a deliberate
of Interleukin- in Disease." Anti-
feature a talk by Weilt, an NIH alum-
symposia.
gen Processing and Presentation."
tute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcohol-
attempt to get cross-fertilization
nus and pioneering researcher in in-
"Topulogy and Chemistry of T-Cell
"The teals-two of them, side by
ism (NIAAA), the National Institute
going."
munology, now chairman of the
Titles of some papers to he pre-
Recognition. and "The Activation
side-are 100 by 180 fect." says Fla-
on Drug Abuse (NIDA), and the Na-
department of medicin at Tuffx Uni-
of CD4 T-Cells."
via. "We talking Ringting Broth-
tional Institute of Mental Health
sented at the symposia and work-
versity, Medford. Maxs. His subject
en here, the Big Top."
shops suggest the range of topics to
Workshops will have four or five
(NIMH).
will be "Mechanisms of Host De.
In her opening address, NTH di-
spcakers each and two chairpersons,
in describing the anticipated at-
be covered The first symposium. the
fense: Recollections on the Develop-
rector Healy is expected to discuss
according to Elaime Blume in the
mosphere at the poster sessions, and
"NIAID [National Institute of N-
ment of an Intramural Program."
the imminent merger of three dew
National Cancer Institute's office of
the research festival generally, Fla-
institutes into NIH on October 1.
communications. Some of the 31
vin picks up on the theme of encour-
1992 NIH RESEARCH FESTIVAL:
"The ADAMHA la being die-
workshops being offered on Sept. 21
banded." says Flavio. The service
aging information exchange among
INVESTIGATOR "CROSS-POLLINATION"
and 22 are "AIDS Vaccine Develop-
researchers from the 13-soun to be
aspects of ADAMHA-providing
16-NIH institutes.
ment Workshop." "Transcriptional
drug abuse prevention information
Opening Address:
Control," "Genome Mapping and
"Probably the most apt analogy is
and collecting data, for example-
Sequencing." "DNA Mutagenesis
& beehive, be says. "When you walk
Sernadine Healy. Director, NMH
will be incorporated into a new
and Repair," "Molecular Structure
into the text. [the researchers are
agency. the Substance Abuse and
(8-3:30 P.M., Sept. 21, Bldg. 10, Matur Auditorium)
and Its Prediction." "Transgenic
buzzing around that thing There's
Mental Health Services Administra-
Systems," and "Genetic Response to
literally cross-pollination going
Symposis:
tion (SAMHSA). Research aspects
on."
Environmental Damage."
MIH/NIAID Alumnt Sympoekum in Honor of
The fastival is planned primarily
Dr. Sheldon M. Wolft
for the bonefit of NIH intramural
(8:45 A.M., Sept. 21, Bldg. 10, Masur Auditorium)
investigators, but researchers from
Departme: Molecules, Membranes, Movement, and Mind
the Food and Drug Administration
(3:30-6:30 P.M., Sept. 21, Bidg. 10, Memor Auditorium)
and ADAMHA will also participate.
Make the
Transgento Animals in the Study and Treatment of
Although visitors are generally wel-
Human Disease
conse, organizers do not which ad-
(3:45-8:30 am, Sept. 22. Bldg. 10, Meanur Auditorium)
vertise the festival outside the NIH
community. One reason is that the
Right Move.
The Extracellular Matrix in Development and Pathology
Sept. 22, Bkig. 10, ACRF, Lipsed Amphitheatra)
auditoriums here Healy's address
Structure Biology
the symposia. and the workshops
Plan 1 winning strategy with Biodusiness*
(3:45-6:30 P.M., Sept. 22, Blug. 1, Wilson Hall)
will be held are latively small.
"The whole thing started for the
When the survived of your product or organization
31 Workshops:
internal community," says Gregory
depends on effective decision making. base your choices
Roa. an NIH communications on-
Workshops 1-14 (8:39-11 A.M., Stept, 22)
on information you can trueti Term to BioBusiness, the
cial. "but, of course, it drawn peo-
Workshops 17-01 (1-3:30 P.M., Sept. 22)
online database for remarchers. planners and marketing
ple from outside. One year we
professionals in biology-related industries such as
(See program booklet, available at the featival, for subjects,
advertised. and. because our audito-
times, and locations of the specific workshops)
biotechnology. commetics. freeds and beverages, and
rium only seats 500. [when] other
phermaceuricals.
a Porter Sensions, With 450+ Posters:
scientists from Johns Hopkins Uni-
versity (in Baltimore] and George-
Search BioBusimess for the complete, timely and
12-2 P.M., Sept. 21
town [University, Washington.
securate industry and market information that can help
5:38-7:30 R.B., Dept. 21
D.C.J and other places came, there
you make the right move, cirre after time!
11-1 P.M., Sept. 22
Were only a couple of seats left [for
Find our more about BioBuchmess contact BIOSIS,
(in featival I Parking Lot 10-D. continuest of Bkig. 10)
NIH scientists] by the time it
Marketing Department TS992RM, 2100 Arch Street,
started."
Technical Sales Ateociation (TSA) Equipment Show:
Philadelphia, PA 19103-1399 or call toll free 1-800-
Hetter able to accommodate non-
523-4806 (USA except PA) or (215) 587-4800 (world.
9:30 A.B.-4 ALL Sept. 24 and 25
NIH visiting scientists will be the
wide): Fax (215) 587-2016.
(in featival tents, Parking Lot 10-D. southwest of Bldg. 10)
remaining two attractions, the poster
sessions and the scientific equip-
For more Information about the NIH Research Pastival, call
ment show. These events will be held
Gregory Roe at (301) 469-1778.
inside J pair of large tents set up on
BIOSIS*
Parking Lut 10-D, near Building 10,
information for Today's Decisions and Discoveries
the NIH clinical center, which is also
BIONS registered of Emigical - be
Circle No 205 on Reader Service Card
C /£ OSTP
3:022M : 9-23-92
SENT BY
PATRICK MICHAELS
Data don't
natter'
Environmental leap
erhaps I'm a bit naive, but I
P
think that environmental
policy should be commen-
into the identity void
surate with science, and if
at is to be the case, any expensive
disruptive policy to fight the en-
ancing greenhouse effect is simply
PAGE F2
ot based on enough science.
The normal process of science in-
American Meteorological Society
EDITORIALS
FRIDAY, APRIL 24, 1992
olves the generation of hypotheses
and the American Geophysical
oday, often called models) and the
Union, in which roughly two-thirds
st of those hypotheses with data.
of the sampled membership of these
ypotheses that are supported by
two societies felt our century's
ata can (and should) be the basis for
warming was not attributable to an
ise public policy.
enhanced greenhouse effect, which
The greenhouse problem isn't
is obvious on the accompanying
uch different. In this case, the
graphs. The skepticism of the Ashe-
odels are computer-driven projec-
ville scientists is about the expected
ons of changes in climate resulting
climate apocalypse, which is the
om an enhancement of the earth's
popular vision of our future.
atural greenhouse effect, and the
The meeting was convened by
ata are observed characteristics of
Christopher Folland of the British
e atmosphere as this enhancement
Meteorological Office. Mr. Folland,
as taken place.
who has made a considerable repu-
As is often the case in science,
tation based upon his studies of
sparities arose between the mod-
ocean temperature data, is one of the
S and the data. The mid-1980s Gen-
senior authors of the 1990 IPCC re-
ral Circulation Models (GCMs) for
port. As such, he could carefully
imate change stated, in aggregate,
pick, choose and modify submitted
at the planet would warm up some
text from the 200 contributors and
2 degrees centigrade for a dou-
100 reviewers. The IPCC document,
ling of the natural carbon dioxide
along with its 1992 update, rep-
'02) greenhouse effect. Further,
resents the ostensible scientific ba-
ey predicted that warming should
sis for the global warming proposals
e greater and sooner in the North-
rn Hemisphere (it contains most of
e world's land, which warms up
MICHAELS
ately. upon the United States), he
these had occurred since 1950, ex-
replied that "the data don't matter."
pected warming would have been
ster than water), and soonest in the
From page F1
The presenter was incredulous and
mitigated during the time in which
igh latitudes of our hemisphere.
the upcoming Rio conference on
asked Mr. Folland to repeat his re-
greenhouse emissions went ballis-
ecause of the combined effect of all
the environment On Page 27 of its
sponse, and he said again that "the
tic. In fact, a 100-year run of the
the greenhouse gases that we have
policymakers summary," it states
data don't matter." Further, he said,
NASA climate model, without an en-
mitted to the atmosphere, we have
that "we have substantial confidence
"We're not basing our recommenda-
hanced greenhouse effect, indeed
ready gone half way to effectively
that models can predict at least the
tions upon the data; we're basing
produces one random cooling of .4
publing the background CO2 con-
broad-scale-features of climatic
them upon the GCM climate mod-
degrees centigrade in a 25-year pe-
entration.
change"
els."
riod. That's one-fourth of the time.
According to ground-based tem-
When Mr. Folland was asked if
When pressed, he replied that cli-
But an equal and opposite ran-
erature records, the globe has only...
the behavior depicted in our graphs
mate models in which the green-
dom warming is just as likely, so that
armed up around a quarter of a
would alter calls for. expensive re-
house gases are not enhanced some-
the likelihood that any quarter cen-
egree since most of the greenhouse
duction in emissions of carbon diox-
times produce random coolings of .4
tury would show a cooling of such
ases were emitted after World War
The Washington Times
ide (which would fall disproportion-
degrees centigrade, and if one of
magnitude is actually one-half of
and the distribution between
one-fourth, or one in eight. Our
emispheres is curious.
hemisphere shows no statistically
The disparity between the data
TRACKING THE DATA
significant net warming trend since
nd the models is immediately ap-
the mid-1930s, or some 55 years,
arent in the accompanying graphs,
The trend line has been placed through the temperature data from
when it begins until the emissions begin their dramatic increase. The
which is more than twice the length
xtended from a 1990 article by
misplacement of the Northern Hemisphere's warming to the era
of the phantom random cooling in
herwood Idso and Robert Balling in
6.0
before emissions became Important is obvious.
the NASA model. Therefore, the
le journal Theoretical and Applied
probability of such a suppression of
limatology. The top plot is a history
Whole earth
warming for so long is less than one-
f global carbon emissions, and the
5.0
Global carbon emissions
half of one-eighth, which is less than
ramatic increase following World
one in 16, or a probability of .065.
/ar II is obvious. The middle and
4.0
That's right: Even if these models
ottom graphs are the land-based
are accurate, the chance that un-
orthern and Southern Hemisphere
usual (good) luck would cancel all
emperature histories. Even these
3.0
the warming in our hemisphere for
re probably too warm in the latest
over a half a century is approx-
ears because exponentially in-
2.0
imately one in 20. It is this probabil-
reasing population is increasing
ity that explains away the disparity
e local warming effect of cities on
1.0
Trend line
between the models, which are
eir weather stations.
called the basis for policy, and data
In the Northern Hemisphere, ev-
that "don't matter."
ry reading after 1950 falls below
0.5°C
So what really happened with glo-
he trend line established in the pre-
ESA
Northern Hemisphere
Trend line
bal warming? The political process,
ious 70 years, which was before the
0.4
Ground-based mean temperatures
fueled by what has to be the fastest
najor greenhouse emissions.
growing cash cow in the sad history
On Aug. 13, 1991, under the aus-
0.2
of lobbyland ($600,000,000 was con-
ices of the U.N. Intergovernmental
tributed to the largest environmen-
'anel on Climate Change (IPCC), a
O.D
tal organizations in 1990) com-
neeting of climatologists was held
mandeered this issue before the
t the National Climatic Data Center
normal tension between data and
0.2
1 Asheville, N.C., to hear arguments
models had been resolved. As a re-
f the so-called skeptics on global
0.4
sult, we're probably on our way to
arming. Actually, "global-warming
the most wrenching energy policy in
keptic" is hardly an apt description
0.6
history, one with the potential to re-
f the scientists convened in Ashe-
0.4°C
duce the GNP by several percent per
STARTS ONPAGE F5
ille, as everyone there acknowl-
Southern Hemisphere
year. President Bush can assure this
CLASSIFIED
dges that the planet has warmed
0.2
Ground-based mean temperatures
Trend line
by acquiescing to environmentalist
ome in the last 100 years. Note, how-
demands at the Rio summit, and
ver. last month's Gallup Poll of the
they will surely demand this of him
0.0
if he shows up.
What's most ironic is that these
0.2
same environmentalists get all riled
up when they read that apocalypse
SECTION F
0.4
forecasts are busto. Why aren't they
happy, like a normal person would
(L5
be? The facts are that they need di-
sastrous global warming like Demo-
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
crats need a recession, and that their
policy isn't commensurate with the
The Washington Times
scientific data.
PHYSICS COMMUNITY
CORPORATE ASSOCIATES MEET
AT GM, FOCUS ON COMPETITION
Each year the American Institute of
Physics sponsors a meeting for its
Corporate Associates-corporations
and organizations that provide advice
to AIP on the role of industry in the
physics community and pay dues in
support of AIP activities. The meet-
ing provides participants from uni-
Thin-film
versities, government and AIP an
microelectrode array
opportunity to become better ac-
made for exploring
quainted with the Corporate Asso-
signal processing in
ciates and with industrial research,
cortical neural
and it provides industry researchers a
systems. The probe,
window to the academic world.
which enables
This year General Motors hosted
researchers to sample
the Corporate Associates meeting,
cell discharges, was
which took place at the GM Research
developed by Khalil
Laboratories in Warren, Michigan, on
Majafi, Ken D. Wise
3-4 October. Robert A. Frosch, the
and Jin Ji at the
GM vice president in charge of the
University of
research labs, delivered the welcom-
Michigan. Wise said
ing address. The conference was or-
at the Corporate
ganized by AIP management, Pra-
Associates meeting
veen Chaudhari, the chair of the
that sensors and
Corporate Associates Advisory Com-
actuators will be
mittee, and John R. Smith of General
increasingly
Motors.
TEN CHANNEL ACTIVE PROBE
integrated into chips
This year's meeting was marked by
an unusually timely and informative
207032
15KV
X100
30mmC
in the coming
decade.
series of talks addressing the relative
competitive status of science in the
United States, Japan and Europe. D.
Allan Bromley reported on new initia-
The auto industry-its past and
technology"-participants were invit-
tives he is taking or planning to take
future, its reliance on research and its
ed to stray far from the freeway and
as Assistant to the President for
contributions to research-was never
the assembly line: H. Jeffrey Kimble
Science and Technology. Shoji Ta-
far from the conference agenda. The
of Caltech talked about squeezed
naka of Japan's International Super-
opening morning's technical talks
light, and Marcia Neugebauer of the
conductivity Technology Center (IS-
were devoted to the creation of new
Jet Propulsion Laboratory about the
TEC) and Henry Durand of the Univer-
materials, or "physics with an eco-
Sun and the solar wind.
sity of Paris discussed Japan and
nomic perspective." Topics included
Europe respectively.
new magnet materials, the creation of
Bush's science office
In a fourth public policy talk that
graphite fibers from natural gas,
Opening his talk about plans for the
addressed the greenhouse effect and
high-temperature materials, and mi-
President's Office of Science and
ozone depletion, Michael B. McElroy
cromachining and sensors.
Technology Policy, Bromley said that
of Harvard University tailored his
The second day opened with an
since the establishment of OSTP in
remarks-it seemed-specially for
early-morning tour of GM's highly
1976, for some reason the four Senate-
Bromley. Coincidentally, the day the
automated Hamtramck plant-orig-
confirmed associate directorships had
Corporate Associates convened for
inally a single tour was to start at 7:30
never been completely filled. He said
the meeting at GM, the subcommittee
AM, but interest was so high that GM
one of his first priorities was to fill
on health and the environment of the
and AIP had to arrange for a second
them: James B. Wyngaarden, the
US House Committee on Energy and
at 6:00 AM. In the concluding pair of
former director of the National Insti-
Commerce voted unanimously to ex-
talks at the end of the second day-
tutes of Health, has been nominated
tend California's strict auto emission
the part of the conference regularly
for the life sciences; Thomas Ratch-
standards to the entire United States.
devoted to "frontiers of physics and
ford of AAAS has been nominated for
1989 American Institure of Physics
PHYSICS TODAY
DECEMBER 1989
55
international affairs; a senior phys-
Corporate Associates meeting, Brom-
Philips France, GE Telespace and St.
ical scientist will be nominated for the
ley praised the National Research
Gobain.)
engineering and physical sciences;
Council's recently released report on
Durand pointed out that the scale
and a senior industrial research ex-
the materials sciences. Bromley said
and structure of R&D efforts varies
ecutive will be named for industrial
he would like to put together a
among the European countries: In
technology. (At this writing, Bush
coherent national program in materi-
West Germany, for example, there
had yet to nominate anyone for the
als science under the aegis of PCAST.
are 4.8 R&D personnel per 1000
latter two positions.)
Robert L. Post Jr, the assistant direc-
persons employed, versus 2.8 in Ire-
Regarding his own authority and
tor of OSTP, will have special respon-
land; the ratio of public to private
the position of his office, Bromley said
sibilities for the materials sciences.
R&D spending is 40:60 in Germany,
that he sits on a newly created Ca-
and the reverse in France; in Great
binet-level committee, the Competi-
Japan and Europe
Britain, the military accounts for
tiveness Council, which is chaired by
Tanaka, a professor emeritus at the
51% of R&D spending, in France it is
Vice President Dan Quayle. Bromley
University of Tokyo and vice presi-
34%, and in West Germany, 12.5%.
said he has reached an agreement
dent of ISTEC, started his talk by
Europe as a whole, according to
with Budget Director Richard Dar-
observing that the share of his gov-
Durand, allocated 1.9% of its gross
man, which will assure that he is
ernment's expenditures in total R&D
domestic product to research and
consulted in the preparation of the
is relatively low: 19.4% in 1985, ver-
development in 1985, while Japan
budget, insofar as it pertains to
sus 46.8% in the United States (28%,
allocated 2.6% and the United States
science and technology. He said a
excluding defense R&D) and 53.5% in
2.8%. Taking exports as a ratio of
new Presidential Council of Advisers
France. Japanese private sector R&D
imports, he said, Europe lags behind
on Science and Technology is being
spending, on the other hand, is high:
formed as a revived version of PSAC,
the United States in every major
It accounted for 2.19% of Japan's
and that Bush has made a commit-
category of products except pharma-
GNP in 1985, compared with 1.45% in
ceuticals.
ment to meet regularly with it.
the United States.
Turning to joint European pro-
In international science, Bromley
In a candid account of how Japan
said he regarded it as his function "to
grams, Durand said that the Europe-
emerged as the world leader in elec-
an Community's European Commis-
prevent megaprojects from destroy-
tronics, Tanaka drew attention to
sion in Brussels accounts for a small
ing small science." Foreign participa-
several government-coordinated pro-
but rapidly increasing share of R&D
tion in the Superconducting Super
grams:
expenditures, and the impact of EC
Collider is essential, Bromley said.
The VLSI project, 1976-80, in
He complained about a recent action
programs has been disproportionately
which the lead institution was the
high.
by Congress to cut funding for the
Cooperating Laboratory for Basic
Addressing the question of whether
Space Station: Treaties may be neces-
Technology and expenditures were
the elimination of tariffs in 1992 will
sary to secure US funding commit-
$500 million.
mean the erection of a "fortress Eu-
ments to international projects, he
The Optical Electronics and Opti-
rope"-a Europe that excludes other
said.
cal Communications Project, 1979-85,
countries by means of special regula-
On energy, Bromley said we need to
led by the Cooperating Laboratory for
tions and other "non-tariff bar-
take another look at alternative ener-
Basic Research, involving expendi-
riers"-Durand said he had heard
gy sources-modular nuclear, solar,
tures of $120 million. "The concept of
from Japanese colleagues that they
biomass, and SO on. He alluded to
optical electronics in integrated cir-
welcome the unified European mar-
President Bush's proposed interna-
cuits, honestly speaking, was 'made in
ket, because the more uniform stan-
tional meeting on the global environ-
Japan,' Tanaka said.
dards become, the more readily Japa-
ment, and he said he personally was
New Functional Devices, 1981-91,
nese goods can penetrate the market.
putting together a meeting of the G-7
$120 million, devoted to three-dimen-
ministers-Cabinet-level officials
sional devices and superlattice de-
from the top non-communist indus-
vices.
Greenhouse effect, tour
trial countries-to develop a coordi-
The Superconductivity Project, in-
In an abrupt shift of gears, the last of
nated global environmental research
volving ISTEC and the Cooperating
the four public policy speeches was
program. (In a recent meeting on the
Laboratory for Materials Research,
devoted to the global environment.
global environment in the Nether-
with an emphasis on international
McElroy, a participant in Antarctic
lands, the US government refused to
cooperation (see PHYSICS TODAY, De-
and Arctic ozone expeditions (see
commit itself to reducing CO₂ emis-
cember 1987, page 53).
PHYSICS TODAY, July 1988, page 17),
sions, pending action by the Intergov-
The Superconductivity Research
said that methane levels are higher
ernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Laboratory was established in Tokyo
now than at any other time within the
a body sponsored by the United Na-
in 1988, reached almost full operation
tions and the World Meteorological
range of earlier ice and warming ages.
by May 1989, and already has filed
In terms of reducing nitrogen ox-
Organization; this position was
some 100 patent applications, Tanaka
ides, current research indicates,
reportedly based on the recommenda-
said.
McElroy said, that even if we were to
tion of Bromley and White House
Speaking equally candidly about
Chief of Staff John Sununu.)
switch from oil to natural gas as a
Europe's status, Durand-a professor
source of automobile fuel, the effect
In education, Bromley said that at
of energy science at the University of
the graduate level, "We still set the
would be neutral; if coal were used,
Paris-said that "Europe does not yet
the effect would be unfavorable; and,
world standard." But he also told his
exist, especially in the field of science
taking the whole fuel cycle into ac-
audience, mainly representatives of
and technology." Until recently, he
count (including fertilizers), if we
the industrial world: "You will have
said, only the multinational compan-
were to convert to biomass, the effect
to play a much larger role in the
ies were trying to coordinate Europe-
would not be obviously favorable.
education of the people you want to
an research. (Before joining the Uni-
McElroy said that universities need
hire than you have ever done before."
versity of Paris in 1978, Durand was
to be much more heavily involved in
Returning to the main theme of the
manager of research operations at
global climate research. Alluding to
56
PHYSICS TODAY
DECEMBER 1989
PHYSICS COMMUNITY
his experience on ozone expeditions,
controlled, he said.
on highways.
he said that small numbers of re-
In the future, Muench said, we
In response to a question, Muench
searchers have been working literally
might look for an active suspension,
said he thought gasoline would still be
to the point of exhaustion.
for greatly improved ride and han-
with us for a long time to come, and
The second half of the first day was
dling; active sound suppression sys-
that the transition then would be to
devoted to a tour of the GM Research
tems, capable of reducing internal
methanol, then maybe to electric
Laboratories, with stops at 12 loca-
noise by up to 15 decibels; and adap-
cars.
tions. In many places the work being
tive cruise control, to regulate spacing
-WILLIAM SWEET
done was much as one would expect in
a facility dedicated, ultimately, to the
manufacture of automobiles. For ex-
AIP AWARDS MADE TO AMALDI,
ample, Galen B. Fisher, a senior staff
research scientist in the physical
HOLTON, REDINGTON AND LITTMANN
chemistry department, described re-
search into the mechanisms of cata-
Four awards were presented at the
tional physics." The Tate award is
lytic CO-CO and NO-CO reactions
AIP Corporate Associates meeting
given every few years by AIP to a
over rhodium, a process crucial to the
banquet, which was held on 3 October
foreign national in recognition of
development of catalytic converters.
in the Detroit Renaissance Center.
distinguished service to the profession
In other locations, physics of a
Edoardo Amaldi of the University
of physics. Amaldi was presented
surprisingly basic character was be-
of Rome received the John T. Tate
with a medal, a prize of $5000 and an
ing done. Gary L. Eesley, a senior
International Award, Gerald Holton
award certificate.
staff reseach scientist in the physics
of Harvard University was presented
In accepting the award, Amaldi
department, gave a tour of GM's
with the Andrew Gemant Award,
said that over the years, he had made
ultrafast laser laboratory, in which
Rowland W. Redington of General
about 35 trips to the United States
time-resolved measurements in the
Electric received the Prize for Indus-
and had always learned a great deal.
femtosecond range provide informa-
trial Applications of Physics and
Amaldi received his doctorate in
tion about how conduction electrons
Mark Littmann was given the AIP
physics from the University of Rome
ballistically transport thermal energy
Science Writing Award in Physics
in 1929, and continued his postdoc-
over distances of several hundred
and Astronomy.
toral work at the University of Lipsia,
angstroms.
Amaldi, a professor of physics at
then at the Cavendish Laboratory at
At many stations it was evident
the University of Rome, has long been
Cambridge, Columbia University and
that the advent of a Cray supercom-
involved in promoting both Italian
the Carnegie Institution of Washing-
puter was revolutionizing the design,
and international physics research.
ton. Since 1937 he has been at the
testing and manufacture of auto-
He received the Tate Award "for his
University of Rome.
mobiles.
crucial role in the rebuilding of Ita-
This year's Gemant award was
lian and European physics following
presented to Gerald Holton "for his
The automotive future
the devastation of World War II, for
own work at the interface between
"Advances in automotive technology"
his leadership in the establishment
the humanities and physics as a
was the subject of an after-dinner
and operation of CERN as a great
leading historian of science" and "for
speech delivered at the end of the first
international laboratory, and for his
his major contributions in interpret-
day by Nils L. Muench, the executive
many other contributions to interna-
ing physics to the public through his
director of GM Research Labs.
Muench opened his talk by describ-
ing, to considerable hilarity, how he
barely made it to the banquet because
he discovered upon leaving work that
he had locked himself out of his own
car (a new Chevy Lumina APV, which
was parked in the darkened GM
LORRAINE DeCANDITIS/A1P
Research garage). He solved the prob-
lem, he said, by what increasingly
seems to be the American way: "I
stole a car."
Muench said there is now a real
acceptance of new technology at GM
in contrast to 25 years ago, when he
arrived. For example, anti-lock brak-
ing systems have been developed that
rely on electronic speed sensors to
regulate braking and acceleration
spin. (Now he would like to see
superconducting materials worked
into such a system, he said, so that he
can call it the Superconducting Anti-
collider.)
The typical GM engine now has an
Edoardo Amaldi
electronic control capability equiva-
accepts Tate Medal
lent to two personal computers; soon
at banquet in
the hydraulically controlled trans-
Detroit's Renaissance
mission will also be electronically
Center.
PHYSICS TODAY
DECEMBER 1989
57
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY
Volume 19, Number 2
April 1990
Letters
2 The Future of Fusion: H. Hurwitz, Jr.; A. A. Bartlett
2 Global Warming Causes: D. Hafemeister
Articles
3 The Case for Civil Defense in Nuclear War Education:
R. Ehrlich, J. Orient
5 Trees, Carbon, and Global Warming: A.H. Rosenfeld,
D. B. Botkin
8 Symposium: The Forum Energy Study
8 I. Energy and Transportation: A. Chachich
10 II. Wind as a Utility Generation Option: J. Chapman
12 III. Energy Storage: J. G. Ingersoll
News
14 Forum Elections
Szilard and Forum Awards
Newly
Elected APS/Forum Fellows
Anaheim Meeting
Washington DC Meeting
Promote the Forum!
To Receive Physics and Society
Comment 16 Editorial: Strategic Instability is a Bad Buy
The American Physical Society
Non-Profit Org.
335 East 45th Street
U.S. Postage
New York, NY 10017-3483
PAID
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N.Y.
Permit No. 129
MBR554288 LIFE-F 06/90
*****
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FORUM
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BETHESDA MD 20816
Physics and Society is the quarterly of the Forum on Physics and Society, a division of the American Physical Society. It presents letters
and reviewed articles on the relations of physics and the physics community to government and society. It also carries news of the Forum
and provides a medium for Forum members to exchange ideas. Opinions expressed are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the APS or of the Forum. Contributed articles, letters, etc., should be sent to the editor: Art Hobson, Physics Department,
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, 501-575-5918, FAX 501-575-4580.
LETTERS
The Future of Fusion
fusion systems would be power for the nation's electrical grid.
We have had over one hundred years of experience with the
Jan Beyea's contribution to the fusion discussion (January 1990)
production of electricity from steam plants that burn fossil fuels. The
seems to me to present a plank in the environmentalist platform rather
dependability and reliability of these steam plants is one of the
than to give a penetrating analysis of actual public attitudes. While en-
marvels of the age in which we live. In my memory I can't recall one
vironmentalists do have strong allies in the media, in academia, and
of these plants exploding. Their concept is simple, their design and
in the leadership of influential lay organizations, the public has been
engineering are superb, and their output has reshaped our society. Our
known to go in a different direction when it at last senses that its own
society now requires absolute dependability of our electricity as to
voltage, frequency, and capacity and outages of electrical power have
interests are not being served by the orthodoxy.
Many years ago the head of the local labor union said to me "Let's
a severe economic impact on all who are affected. Fortunately
face it, there's no industrial hazard that can't be eliminated by a dollar
outages are rare. This is the game in which any new source of electric
an hour wage increase!". Nowadays this observation would be
power must compete. Increasing complexity of a system is a major
considered too crass to be openly expressed. Nevertheless, the stacks
adverse factor in the ability of the system to compete. Nuclear fission
of unsold radon detector kits gathering dust in hardware stores suggest
power plants are one or two orders of magnitude more complicated
the continued willingness of members of the public to discount even
than the fossil fuel plants with which they must compete. It is a credit
widely publicized hypothetical hazards. We are constantly warned of
to all involved that nuclear fission electric plants have done remarka-
the need to protect "Spaceship Earth." But the public may come to
bly well in spite of their inherent complexity. But there have been
realize that, on a perilous journey, the agonizing decisions must be
disasters, and the political problems surrounding the disposal of the
based on more objective analyses of the comparative risks of alterna-
waste from these plants remains unsolved. It may well be that today's
tive courses of action and more attention to technological constraints
nuclear fission power plants are about as complex as can be managed
by humans where the requirements of reliability are so stringent, and
than has been customary in the environmental movement.
where the societal costs of even occasional catastrophic failure are so
With respect to fusion power, the real issue seems to me to be
whether or not fusion power plants can be as safe and economical as
high.
the advanced fission plants that are being designed by U.S. vendors
It seems reasonable to predict that nuclear fusion power plants will
for off-shore use. I don't know whether or not Beyea and friends
be one or two orders of magnitude more complex even than nuclear
would consider these plants to be "melt-down-free." But, having the
fission plants. As a consequence, the probability seems low that they
could supply reliable 60 Hz power 24 hours a day for years at a time.
ability to perform my own risk assessments, I would rather my
I don't recommend that we stop our research on nuclear fusion.
grandchildren live near an advanced LWR than in one of the sealed up
However, the combination of the inflexibility of our high perform-
homes prescribed by proponents of energy conservation.
It will admittedly be more difficult for fusion power plants to
ance requirements for electric power systems and the almost certain
compete with advanced LWR's than with a duplicate interstate high-
complexity of possible nuclear fusion power plants, leads me to make
way system covered with expensive PV devices, installed and main-
an observation and a prediction.
Observation: It would be unwise for energy planners to count on
tained by an army of workers whose enthusiasm for solar energy is not
guaranteed to lead to unprecedented restraint at the bargaining table.
any schedule of proposed or predicted availability of commercial
If fusion scientists and engineers are willing to accept the greater
quantities of electric power that is generated by nuclear fusion.
Prediction: Children born today will not live to see ten percent of
challenge, they deserve our continuing support. On the other hand, I
question the wisdom of devoting major societal resources to the
our national energy consumption being supplied by terrestrial nuclear
pursuit of standards of safety that are far more rigorous than those
fusion power plants.
Albert A. Bartlett
utilized by members of the public in making their own "real life"
decisions.
Department of Physics
Henry Hurwitz, Jr.
University of Colorado
827 Jamaica Road
Boulder, CO 80309-0390
Schenectady, NY 12309
Global Warming Causes: Population or
The January issue carried four articles that dealt with the "Future
Lifestyle?
of Fusion." These articles, and others on this subject that I have seen
elsewhere, make no mention of what I feel is the reality that will
Recently two quite different prestigious sources have commented
prevent nuclear fusion from having a major impact on our national
on the causes of global warming, but with quite different root causes:
energy scene for several decades. By "fusion" I mean fusion that
1. The University of California held a workshop on global climate
might be achieved by the traditional mechanisms that are being
change during the summer of 1989. The workshop combined the
explored in mega-machines that heat plasmas or that implode pellets.
strengths of the nine UC campuses and the three DOE labs under UC
The "reality" to which I refer is the complexity of commercial power
management (Lawrence-Berkeley, Lawrence-Livermore, Los
systems that might evolve from those experiments.
Alamos). They concluded that "Population growth is the single most
Most of the proposals that I have seen for commercial fusion
important force driving global environmental changes" (from Global
power would use the fusion process as a source of heat which would
Climate Change Newsletter 1, #4, p. 9, Nov 1989).
convert water into steam which would drive turbines which would
2. The Pope also has spoken out on the global ecological crisis, but
then drive electric generators. The primary commercial product of the
on the other hand the Pope stated that "The seriousness of the
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
2
ecological crisis lays bare the depth of man's moral crisis." He
value of h is about 5 giga-tonnes per year of carbon. The last term, N,
appealed to modern society to take a "serious look at its life style" in
is the net production of CO2 by natural causes.
a world given to "instant gratification and consumerism." He called
The logarithmic derivative of this equation gives us the fractional
for "simplicity, moderation, discipline as well as a spirit of sacrifice"
rate of increase of C:
as ingredients of a healthier global society (Los Angeles Times, 6 Dec
1989, p. A6).
(dC/dt)/C = (dP/dt)/P + (dE/dt)/E (dh/dt)/h
The juxtaposition of these two studies is most interesting. Is the
cause of the global greenhouse population growth or lifestyle? Why
For simplicity, we have ignored man's impacts on the natural produc-
does one study name population growth (and not lifestyle) and the
tion of carbon, by assuming that dN/dt = 0. Actually man's impacts
other study name lifestyle (and not population)? Is one correct and the
should not be ignored since the cutting and burning of trees can be
other wrong, are they both correct, are they both wrong, or are they
large, and increased global warming can release methane, a very
both partly correct and partly wrong?
effective greenhouse gas, from the tundra. The fractional increase in
As an old adage has it, "we stand where we sit." The University
population, (dP/dt)/P, is the large term at about 1.8% per year.
and DOE scientists feel that conservation by denial is impossible
However, the large use of energy by the industrialized states is clearly
politically, so they refrain from attacking the superfluous use of
part of the problem since the world is aspiring to attain our life style.
energy. They conclude that we should (1) use energy more efficiently,
Thus, it looks like both reports are partially correct. UC/DOE
and (2) use fuels that produce less CO2. On the other hand, the Pope
favors the first term, the fractional growth of population (dP/dt)/P, as
attacks the superfluous use of carbon fuels, but does not wish to
the most important term in the equation. On the other hand, the Pope
support birth control. Thus he too is silent on one part of the problem,
considers the second term, the excess consumption of fossil fuels (dE/
population growth.
dt)/E, as the most important term. On the other hand, the energy
In fact, annual global carbon dioxide production (C) can be written
conservers, the nuclear power advocates, and the photovoltaic fans all
as
agree that the diminished use of fossil fuel through either end-use
efficiency or alternate, nonfossil power sources is the most important.
d(CO2)/dt = C = PE/h + N.
I congratulate the two groups for pointing out the two leading
terms as the main cause of global warming. I agree that a global
where P is the global population of about 5 billion people, and E is
population increase of 1.8% per year is large, but I also recall that our
annual average per capita consumption of energy. The product of P
life-style got us into trouble in the first place. We are all part of the
and E is presently about 100 million barrels of oil/day, or 200 quads
problem as well as part of the potential solution: I confess to
(1 quad = 10¹⁵ Btu) of energy/year. The symbol h represents the
contributing to (dP/dt)/P by having three children, and to (dE/dt)/Eby
average amount of usable energy produced per unit energy. The value
visiting our son in Paris this coming summer at his new job.
of h for a particular process varies between almost zero (house fire)
David Hafemeister
to almost infinity (fission, photovoltaics, fusion). Improved end-use
Physics Department
efficiency can help a great deal; for example, new refrigerators are
California Polytechnic State University
now using one third as much energy as before the oil embargo,
San Luis Obipso, CA 93407
increasing h by a factor of three. At present, E divided by the average
ARTICLES
The Case for Civil Defense in Nuclear War Education
Robert Ehrlich and Jane Orient
[A copy of the original lengthier version of this article, including 48
cities such as New York even given several days notice, but New York
footnotes, can be obtained from the first author.]
is far from typical in terms of its ease of evacuation. Skeptics also note
that an attacker can simply retarget fleeing populations, but this would
A majority of educators teaching courses on nuclear war and peace
only be an effective tactic if the attack occurred relatively soon after
profess to believe in the importance of presenting both sides of
the start of the evacuation, and before the population dispersed.
controversial issues. Yet the pro side of the civil defense issue is
Finally, skeptics note that even if evacuation "succeeded," no place in
seldom presented without the ridicule often used by its detractors. In
the nation is safe given the lethal levels of fallout radiation, "nuclear
fact, many nuclear war courses do not include any significant amount
winter," or other such global threats to life. A detailed rebuttal will be
of material about civil defense. This may be because most educators
given later. For now we reemphasize that the issue of how well city
feel very strongly that nuclear war is unsurvivable, or perhaps that
evacuations would work is undecidable, short of an actual nuclear
thoughts of nuclear war survivability are an obstacle to peace. This
war. Circumstances under which it could save many lives include (a)
article argues that civil defense advocates should be allowed to make
most likely nuclear war initiation scenarios, (b) most cities, (c) most
their own case, so that students can decide for themselves whether or
strategies of an attacker, and (d) most realistic estimates of serious-
not the idea deserves to be ridiculed.
ness of the long-term threats to life (fallout and "nuclear winter").
This essay defends the proposition that civil defense measures
For most Americans, civil defense is an issue of very low saliency.
(shelters, food and medicine stockpiles, evacuation plans, and most
If reminded in a poll that the Soviet Union spends far more on civil
importantly, education about protective measures) could save many
defense than the U.S., most Americans favor increasing U.S. expen-
millions of lives in the event of a nuclear war. We stress the word
ditures. However, it is not an issue about which most citizens are
"could" because skeptics can always come up with some condition
particularly concerned, especially now that the perceived risk of
under which any given protective measure will fail to work.
nuclear war seems to have diminished greatly. Those few civil
For example, consider the idea of evacuating "high risk" areas
defense enthusiasts that do exist are regularly derided as kooks or Dr.
prior to an attack- a particularly controversial civil defense measure.
Evacuation of "high risk" areas would be futile in the event of an
Robert Ehrlich is with the Physics Department at George Mason
attack without warning, even though most observers believe that such
University, Fairfax, Virginia 22030-4444. Jane Orient is an M.D.
a "bolt-out-of-the-blue" attack would be highly unlikely. Likewise,
in Tucson, Arizona.
skeptics can point to the extreme difficulty in evacuating particular
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
3
Strangelove types who actually would relish the prospects of anuclear
producing a new breed of "monsters" among nuclear war survivors-
war. Some psychiatrists believe that "denial," the unconscious
a favorite theme of science fiction and editorial cartoons.
suppression of unpleasant facts, is a motivation for believing that
Radiation is only one of numerous threats to human survival in
nuclear war could be survivable. We believe, however, that the
nuclear war. Other immediate or early sources of casualties would
reverse is more likely the case, and that the term "denial" better fits the
include blast, thermal radiation, and fires. Later, people might perish
belief in nuclear war unsurvivability. For many Americans the
from starvation, disease, climate change ("nuclear winter"), or other
thought of experiencing the kind of unpleasant hand-to-mouth exis-
factors. Yet none of these factors, singly or in combination, has been
tence prevalent in 90 percent of the Third World today, a realistic
shown to pose such an overwhelming threat that all protective
prospect for survivors, is simply unimaginable. It is more comforting
measures would necessarily be useless.
to imagine one's instantaneous annihilation in a nuclear war. In
Consider, for example, the "duck-and-cover" drills of schoolchil-
reality, of course, far more people would suffer slow, painful deaths,
dren in the 1950's, which are still taught to all Soviet citizens today.
especially those who died from radiation sickness- deaths that could
Although widely ridiculed, such simple action could save many
be prevented by taking precautions, some of a relatively simple
people outside the lethal blast area who might otherwise be severely
nature.
injured from flying glass or from the intense thermal radiation which
For example, fallout radiation (present on dust particles) can
could cause severe burns or temporary blindness.
simply be washed off food without the food being contaminated
Obviously, inside the lethal blast zone, measures to protect lives
afterwards, and contaminated water can easily be decontaminated by
would need to be much more elaborate (blast shelters), but it should
simply filtering it through an earthen filter. Another simple protective
be noted that the cumulative U.S. area subject to such lethal blast
measure unknown to many civil defense skeptics who think in terms
damage (over 5 psi) is probably less than 5 percent (and for the
of special purpose fallout shelters is the simple expedient of survivors
U.S.S.R. it is probably less than 1 percent). These figures will
staying in their own home basements for a week or two following a
probably surprise most people who may have heard the widely
nuclear war. This measure wouldn't work for everyone: those without
repeated assertion that we and the Soviets have enough nuclear
home basements, those not at home when the attack occurs, those
weapons to kill each other 10 or more times over. Other variations on
whose homes burn down, etc. But for those living in perhaps 75
this theme are that the world's arsenals equal one million Hiroshimas,
percent of the nation's land area, a ten to twenty-fold reduction in the
or three tons of TNT per person on Earth, or our favorite: a hand
radiation level (as a below ground basement provides) is enough to
grenade for every square foot of the Earth's surface.
make survival possible. Of course some areas of the country would
If these latter "statistics" are true how is it possible that less than
become "radioactive wastelands" in the sense that a very long time
5 percent of the U.S. (or 1 percent of the Soviet) land area would
would be required before radiation levels decayed to safe levels. In
probably be subject to lethal blast damage in an all-out nuclear war?
those very "hot" areas, survivors would need shelters with a protec-
The early calculations of deaths per megaton were based on a "cookie
tion factor much higher than 10 or 20, and shelter stays longer than a
cutter" model. Each nuclear detonation is assumed to result in lethal
week or two would be required. But such areas occupy a relatively
blast damage inside a circle of specific radius. One then imagines
small percentage of the nation's land area.
nonoverlapping circles to be placed over the areas of greatest popu-
Civil defense critics often portray the situation otherwise by
lation density. In this way, it was estimated that perhaps 400 one-
speaking of the vast land area that can be "contaminated" by a single
megaton weapons could kill about 25% of the population. This 25%
nuclear explosion. In making this claim, they are either using the word
fatality level was considered by strategists in the 1960's to represent
"contaminated" to refer to any amount of radioactivity, however
a level of damage that no nation would tolerate - the "assured
small (in which case everyone on earth is contaminated right now), or
destruction" level. "Assured destruction" does not mean that every-
else they are referring to the present day peacetime radiation standards
one would be killed with 400 megatons. Moreover, the present U.S.
used by the government for limits on radiation exposure. These limits
megatonnage of ten times this amount would not kill everyone either,
are 5 rems in one year for occupational exposure or 0.5 rems in one
even in the simplified "cookie cutter" model. The reason is that a point
year for the general public. Such peacetime exposure limits are
of diminishing returns is reached fairly quickly after the major
extremely stringent in terms of the health risks (primarily excess
population areas are targeted, and each additional megaton used
cancer deaths) faced by people exposed. The health risks faced by
would kill fewer and fewer people; the major urban areas of the nation
people receiving a given dose of radiation are reasonably well-known
occupy no more than 2 percent of the U.S. land area, and no more than
(at least for high doses), based on studies of the survivors of the
0.2 percent of the Soviet land area.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. For example, the rate of increase
In fact, on a worldwide basis all the weapons in all the world's
in cancer deaths (most 20 or more years later) was found to be about
arsenals would subject less than 1 percent of Earth's land area to lethal
8 percent for every 100 rads a survivor received.
blast pressures. Thus, the "overkill" statistic about being able to kill
In discussing the dangers of fallout from nuclear weapons, people
each other ten times over is at best a metaphorical use of numbers that
often mention the islands in the pacific that remain "uninhabitable" as
has no relation to actual casualties, and at worst a deliberate attempt
a result of U.S. nuclear testing, despite a radiologic clean-up opera-
to mislead people into believing nuclear war survival is impossible.
tion. In fact, the radiation on the Marshall Islands is somewhat higher
That statistic (as well as all the others: 3 tons of TNT per person, one
than it was before the testing. But it is still not very high. The Northern
million Hiroshimas, etc.) have as little bearing on the actual estimate
Marshall Islands Radiological Survey conducted in 1978 showed that
of casualties as the observation that the explosive power in the world's
on most of the islands the annual dose due to fallout was about 0.006
nuclear arsenals is comparable to that released in one very large
rems from all exposure pathways, including food, or about 4 percent
volcanic explosion
of the average annual external background dose in the U.S. On Bikini
The fact that only a relatively small percentage of the nation's land
Island, one of the most heavily contaminated areas, the maximum
area would be subject to lethal blast damage makes evacuations of
annual dose to those eating locally grown food was less than 2 rems.
cities prior to nuclear attack a conceivable strategy. This, of course,
One other greatly-feared effect of radiation on humans and ani-
is not nearly as effective a strategy as having in-place blast shelters
mals is genetic mutations. Studies on the survivors of the Hiroshima
that can be occupied on short notice, but for a nation that doesn't wish
and Nagasaki bombings have, however, shown no evidence for an
to pay the expense (estimated at 60 billion dollars or $250 per blast
increase in the 10 percent spontaneous rate of genetic defects among
shelter occupant) it is the next best possibility. Obviously, an
survivors' offspring. This does not mean that no increase occurred,
evacuation of cities would pose extraordinary problems for people
only that it was too small to be seen given the size of the group studied.
residing in the "host" areas. And even outside the "high risk" areas,
Extrapolations from studies with mice indicate that a small increase
there still would be many other hazards, especially fallout.
would probably be expected, but certainly nothing like the popular
Often, the ability of people to survive the short-term effects of
misconception, shared by many nuclear war educators, of radiation
nuclear weapons is portrayed as "meaningless" in view of the long-
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
4
term environmental effects. One example of such predicted effects is
Disinterest in civil defense is not a global phenomenon. The
the depletion of the ozone layer which supposedly has been linked to
Soviet Union, for example, spends over 20 times as much as the U.S.
various human activities. The primary human hazard of a depleted
does on civil defense every year. Despite assertions about the
ozone layer would be an increase in skin cancers due to ultraviolet
unsurvivability of nuclear war made by Mikhail Gorbachev in his
radiation. Calculations by the National Academy of Sciences esti-
1987 book, there is no sign of slackening in Soviet civil defense
mate the rate of increase following a nuclear war to be about 10
efforts. Soviet civil defense is often dismissed as a sham by many
percent for Northern Hemisphere survivors - roughly one tenth the
Americans and by selected Soviet officials by pointing to specific
increase in danger faced by someone who today chose to move from
problem areas, using ridicule, or by citing the response to the Cher-
Minnesota to sunny Texas!
nobyl accident and the Armenian earthquake. In fact, while consid-
The long-term consequence of nuclear war that has received the
erable problems were encountered in the Chernobyl and Armenian
widest publicity as being possibly serious enough to bring about
earthquake disasters, Soviet civil defense also had some notable
mankind's demise has been "nuclear winter," originally proposed in
successes. Moreover, those who regard Soviet civil defense as a sham
1983. More recent studies by Thompson and Schneider, however,
rarely cite specific details about the program, including the existence
using more sophisticated models than the 1983 study, show that the
of more than 20,000 blast shelters to protect up to 175,000 party
duration and magnitude of the maximum expected temperature de-
leaders, the blast doors in every subway system in the land (present in
clines (about 200 degree-days of cooling rather than 22,000), might
cities of one million or more population), the more than 100,000 full-
justify the term "nuclear autumn" better than nuclear winter. More-
time and 20 million part-time civil defense personnel, and the civil
over, the magnitude of the climatic effect is highly dependent on
defense classes that are required of all Soviet citizens. Although the
factors under the control of the initiator of the nuclear war (the choice
Soviet civil defense system would probably fall short in many
of weapons, their altitude of detonation, the targets, and the time of
respects if actually put to the test, CIA estimates of its effectiveness
year). Any attacker seriously concerned that nuclear winter is a
suggest that Soviet casualties in an all-out nuclear war that occurred
remote possibility need only choose his weapons and tactics accord-
following a week of heightened tension during which preparations
ingly to avoid "nuclear winter's retaliation." For example, calcula-
could be made would probably be "in the low tens of millions,"
tions of the maximum temperature depression averaged over northern
namely about 10 percent of the population.
hemisphere mid-latitudes yield 15 °C for a war in the summer but only
At the same time that many deride civil defense as being incapable
a few degrees for a wintertime war. The idea of a "threshold" for
of coping with an all-out attack by the Soviet Union, there is a growing
nuclear winter if one percent of the world's arsenal is used, or that any
perception that better U.S.-Soviet relations make such an attack less
attacker would suffer as badly as his victim because of nuclear winter,
likely, perhaps even the least likely, of potential nuclear threats. If that
are additional myths created by those who see in these positions
is the case, civil defense deserves reconsideration even by Doomsday
further justifications for their long-held views on nuclear disarma-
theorists. The proliferation of nuclear weapons (and worse, long-
ment.
range delivery systems) to Third World nations, or even to terrorist
Given the present (and probable future) uncertainties in nuclear
groups, poses a growing though clearly nonapocalyptic threat. Civil
winter calculations it would be foolhardy to claim that worldwide
defense could also make a considerable difference in coping with the
climatic changes following a nuclear attack would certainly be
aftermath of the accidental launch of a few weapons.
negligible, only that they almost certainly would not be catastrophic.
This article cannot answer every one of the literally endless stream
As S. L. Thompson and S. H. Schneider note: "On scientific grounds
of arguments advanced to "prove" that nuclear war would be unsur-
the global apocalyptic conclusions of the initial nuclear winter hy-
vivable: firestorms, mass epidemics, societal collapse, insects inher-
pothesis can now be relegated to a vanishingly low level of probabil-
iting the earth, just to name a few. Rather, it has addressed some of
ity" ("Nuclear Winter Reappraised," Foreign Affairs, Volume 64,
the commonly stated arguments in order to illustrate a general
1986, pp. 981-1005). Of course, even with climatic changes of less
approach, to highlight some of the factual material that should be
than catastrophic dimensions, large numbers of people might suffer
considered in reaching a conclusion, and to suggest specific sources
starvation from the disruption of domestic agriculture and food
of additional information.
imports from other countries. But then the civil defense measure of
If civil defense advocates are correct, then decisions about this
prior food storage could partly ameliorate such suffering in the event
issue could affect the lives of many millions of people in the event that
of a nuclear war (or other natural and man-made hazards prevalent in
nuclear weapons are ever used. Thus, a serious consideration of this
many parts of the world.)
viewpoint is worthy of inclusion in all courses related to nuclear war
and peace.
Trees Can Sequester Carbon, Or Die And Amplify Global Warming:
Possible Positive Feedback Between Rising Temperature, Stressed Forests, and CO2
Arthur H. Rosenfeld and Daniel B. Botkin
Global facts: good news and bad
tude of various quantities and rates, some of which, unfortunately, are
poorly known:
Forest biomass plays an important role in the global carbon cycle.
1. World combustion of fossil fuel produces about 5 Gt of carbon
Forests store billions of tonnes of carbon in plants and soil. This is
(as CO2) each year:
why there is currently so much discussion about planting trees to
sequester a significant fraction of the carbon added to the atmosphere
A. Rosenfeld is Professor of Physics, University of California, and
by human activity. The idea of forestation to offset carbon emissions
Director, Center for Building Science, Lawrence Berkeley Labora-
was first proposed by Dyson and Marland (1, 2). To assess the
tory, Berkeley, CA 94720. D. Botkin is Professor of Biology and
viability of massive tree planting, we need to understand how planting
Environmental Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA
trees and deforestation relate to the current global carbon release.
93106. This work was funded by the Assistant Secretary for Conser-
We will make a rough estimate of how much carbon could be
vation and Renewable Energy, Office of Buildings and Community
sequestered by planting trees, and how much carbon could be released
Systems Division of the U.S. Department of Energy, under Contract
by deforestation or global warming. For the purpose of the discussion
No. DE-AC03-76SF00098. The authors thank Robert J. Mowris for
we make the following assumptions concerning the order of magni-
help with research, editing and graphics.
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
5
Fossil Fuel Rate = 5 Gt/year.
(1)
300
Figure 1 gives the Mauna Loa (Hawaii) data on the buildup of
atmospheric CO2. We will use it to give a simplified carbon account-
280
ing. We also need to know that the atmosphere contains about 700 Gt
of carbon (as CO₂). This gives us the right-hand scale of Figure 1. We
260
rising about 15 Gt every 5 years or 3 Gt/yr. This is 60% of the fossil
CO2 in the Atmosphere (ppm)
Carbon Dioxide
see that the average concentration of carbon in the atmosphere is now
240
fuel rate in Eq. 1. The remaining 40% is apparently removed by the
oceans (Bert Bolin, University of Stockholm).
2.5
220
2. We know that for the last 160,000 years there has been an
astounding correlation between temperature and atmospheric CO2
200
0
and methane concentration (Figure 2).
3. Living biomass, mainly trees, contains about 500 billion tonnes
180
-2.5
(Gt) of carbon, comparable with the 700 Gt of carbon as CO2 in the
atmosphere. In the soil there are an estimated 2000-4000 of carbon.
4. The carbon turnover rate from the 500 Gt of living biomass is
-5.0
on the order of 1%/year, i.e. each year about 5 Gt of carbon are
sequestered by photosynthesis, and another 5 Gt are returned to the
-7.5
Antarctic Temperature Change (°C)
atmosphere by respiration of living biomass and by decaying bio-
Temperature (°C)
mass.
-10.0
5. If we deforest 1% of the world's 4 billion hectares (Gha), we
will promptly (within a few years) add 5 Gt of carbon to the atmos-
phere.
160
120
80
40
0
Present
6. If we add an additional 1% to our forests, which will eventually
Thousands of Years Ago
sequester 5 Gt (but only over 100 years), we will have net sequestering
for 100 years, but only at 1% of 5 Gt/year. In other words, in terms
Figure 2. Inferred Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature
Change from 160,000 Years Ago to the Present. CO2 and temperature are
of delaying the greenhouse threat for 20 years while we develop non-
very closely correlated over the past 160,000 years. The long-term record,
fossil sources of energy, we have the problem that dead trees decay in
based on evidence from Antarctica, shows how atmospheric CO2 and local
a short time span compared to 20 years, but young trees grow in a long
temperature rose nearly in step as an ice age ended about 130,000 years ago,
time span compared to 20 years. Thus, for a 20 year time-horizon, we
fell almost in step at the beginning of a new glacial period, and rose again as
the ice retreated about 20,000 years ago. Source: Stepen H. Schneider,
must plan 5 ha to offset the carbon released by deforesting 1 ha. Thus,
Scientific American, September 1989-from Claude Lorius et al, Laboratory
it is better to save 1 ha of forest than to plant 1 ha. This is an important
of Glaciology and Geophysics of the Environment near Grenoble.
consideration in dealing with nations which need incentives to slow
their deforestation.
7. Returning to point 5, that 1% dead and decayed forest biomass
feedback.
represents 5 gt of carbon, we now cite a serious danger. If global
How fast will forests have to migrate if fossil fuel combustion
warming takes place too fast for forests to adapt to changes in
continues to rise by 1.5%/year? At this rate the carbon dioxide
temperature and humidity, it is conceivable that an additional 1% of
concentration in the atmosphere will double in about 50-70 years.
the forests could die per year. This would be very damaging positive
Climatologists are in general agreement that a doubling of CO₂ and an
equivalent increase in other trace gases will warm the earth's average
surface temperature by 3-5 °C. About a dozen research groups around
350
8
the world have developed computer models to help predict how global
climate will be affected by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and
7
Figure 3 shows the results of one of these models (3).
340
If greenhouse gases double by 2050, Figure 3 shows an average
CO2 in the Atmosphere (ppm)
6
CO2 in Atmosphere
Deforestation
Fossil Fuel Carbon
4
Fossil Fuel Carbon as CO2 (Gtonne/year)
warming of 3.5 °C. In the summer, for temperature latitudes, average
temperatures change by about 1 °C for every 200 km north-south
5
latitude change. If Figure 3 is correct and average temperatures rise
330
3.5 °C, then this would be equivalent to moving summer temperate
zones 600-700 km north over 60 years. If the temperature increase is
linear, the move would have to be about 10 km/year. Unfortunately,
320
Figure 3 is more nearly quadratic-the slope starts at zero, and then
3
increases linearly (e.g. T=t², dT/dt = 2t)-so that by 2050 the rate of
change might be closer to 20 km/year. If the predicted global
310
2
temperature increase is correct, then forests will have to migrate at a
1960
1970
1980
rate of 200 km per decade, by 2050. This could result in massive forest
Year
destruction. (During the last period of glacial retreat, forests had to
migrate at a rate of only about 0.2 km/decade.) So a "business as
usual" approach over the next 60 years is a severe threat to unmanaged
Figure 1. Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere and Fossil Fuel
forests or wilderness areas. We will discuss this quantitatively below.
Carbon Emissions, 1958 to 1987. The figure shows monthly concentrations of
Massive human intervention to "help" the forests migrate north might
atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The yearly oscillation
is explained mainly by the annual cycle of photosynthesis and respiration of
be possible. Unfortunately, without being able to predict how rainfall
plants in the northern hemisphere. The slowly increasing concentration of
patterns will change with temperature, it is doubtful that such a huge
atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa since the 1950s is primarily caused by carbon
emissions from fossil-fuel combustion (dashed line). The current annual rate of
and unprecedented project would ever even get started.
fossil fuel emissions is about 5 gigatonnes (Gt). Also shown is the estimated 1 Gt
8. An additional danger is that as the atmosphere heats up, biomass
of carbon emissions from deforestation. Source: Charles D. Keeling, Mauna Loa,
will decay at an accelerated rate, releasing additional carbon into the
Hawaii.
atmosphere. Aerobic decay yields carbon dioxide, and anaerobic
decay yields methane, an even more serious greenhouse gas. An area
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
6
A
Deforestation: the bad news
4
5- Year Running Mean
We return to point 6. Remember that 4 Gha of forest contain 500
Gt of carbon, so each hectare contains 125 tons of carbon. Suppose
3
that we kill or clear one hectare. Then the trees will burn or decay
within a few years. This is a short time compared to the time necessary
for the world to switch to renewable sources of energy, and hence to
AT (°C)
2
the time scale of the CO2 threat. For bookkeeping purposes, let's call
this decay time one year. Then we see the bad news:
B
1 dead ha/year = 125 tonnes of carbon released/year
(4)
I
C
OBSERVED
Since trees take 100 years to sequester this 125 tonne/ha
SCENAR10
O
SCENARIO
C
1 newly planted ha/year = 1.25 t carbon bound/year
(5)
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
In summer, it takes 100 years of growth to offset the damage of
Date
clearing the same area of forest.
Worse than that, suppose we let the temperature rise too fast, so
Figure 3.
Five-year Running Mean Global Surface Air Temperature
that forests cannot migrate fast enough to keep up with the changing
Computed for Scenarios A, B, C, 1960-2060. Scenario A-exponential
climate (or cannot adapt). Then maybe 1% of the forest would start
trace gas growth, 1.5%/year; Scenario B-reduced linear growth of trace gases;
Scenario C-rapid curtailment of trace gases, no increase after the year 2000.
dying each year. But 1%/year of 500 Gt of biomass corresponds to 5
Gt/year, which in turn corresponds to our fossil fuel rate in Eq. 1. If
this were to happen we would double the rate of CO, release, and
introduce a damaging and potentially irreversible positive feedback.
of concern is the arctic and antarctic boreal forests and tundra where
We are playing with fire.
soils are believed to contain 2-5 times more carbon per unit than soils
Fortunately, current estimates of human-induced deforestation is
closer to the equator (4). Arctic and antarctic soils have higher
only 0.2%/year, which corresponds to 20% of the current fossil fuel
rate.
concentrations of carbon because of the greater rate of vegetative
growth that occurs during the warm, long days of summer relative to
the slower rate of decay that occurs during the cold, short days of fall
Tree planting or tree farming to sequester carbon
and winter. Increasing temperatures from global warming could
increase the decay rate in the soil and release billions of tonnes of
We can now see that it's impractical to plant trees fast enough to
carbon into the atmosphere that are now stored in the soils of arctic and
offset deforestation-we'd have to plant 800 Mha (1/5 of the world's
antarctic boreal forests and tundra.
forests) one time to offset killing 8 M ha/year. So let's assume that the
developed world can induce the developing world to slow deforesta-
Photosynthesis: the good news
tion. Then we have a chance, and tree planting can become a useful
tool.
Next we note the oscillations in Figure 1, and remember that
In the industrialized countries, before the first oil crisis, energy use
Hawaii is in the Northern Hemisphere, along with most of the land and
grew at the same rate as the Gross World Product, about 3.5%/year.
vegetation. For simplicity, in the rest of this note we will assume that
After the first oil crisis, from 1973 to 1986, the industrialized coun-
all the biomass in vegetation is in forests, and that all of it is in the
tries held their energy use constant while their economies grew 2.5%/
Northern Hemisphere. The dips of the annual oscillation correspond
year. For a 13-year period the industrialized world proved that it could
to summer, when warmth and sunlight cause growth, increasing the
keep energy use constant and maintain economic growth. With the
rate of photosynthesis, and pulling CO₂ from the atmosphere faster
proper political leadership, we could reduce energy intensity in
than respiration and decomposition put it back. Then, each winter, the
industrial countries by 50%, using existing technology, and still
balance switches to excess decomposition and CO2 release. We note
maintain the same quality of life-i.e. comfortable, well-lighted
that the summer pulldown is about 12 Gt. Only a part of this is yearly
buildings, comfortable and safe automobiles, etc. If we reduce energy
net incremental growth in the long-term storage of biomass of typical
intensity by 50% over the next 20 years this is equivalent to a 2.5%/
trees, the rest is leaves and twigs which fall off or are eaten, and small
year improvement in energy efficiency. If economic growth contin-
roots which slough off. To a first approximation we assume that,
ues at 3.5%/year however, a 2.5%/year improvement in efficiency
translates into a 1%/year increase in energy use. Suppose this
Growth of trees, northern hemisphere = 5 Gt/year
(2)
increase came from fossil fuel. This means just to keep world carbon
emissions constant, we would have to plant enough trees to offset 1%
This doesn't mean that the forests are sequestering an extra 5 Gt/
of the 5 Gt/year fossil fuel rate.
year of carbon, but that carbon stored in new organic matter in forests
According to Eq. 2, growing trees sequester 5 Gt/year, so we only
is approximately 5 Gt/year. This increase offsets carbon release from
have to add 1% annually to world forests. This would require planting
decay. We would only get a net sequestering of carbon if we plant new
40 Mha/year of forests. This doesn't solve the problem, but it gives
trees or allow now unforested areas to become forested. Ecologists
us an estimate of a reasonable use of trees to help keep carbon
believe that the mass of carbon in vegetation is comparable with, but
emissions constant to reduce the impact of global warming.
less than the 700 Gt of carbon in the atmosphere. Our estimate is 500
References
Gt, and for simplicity, we assume that all of it is forests, so that
Forest biomass = 500 Gt
(3)
1. F.J. Dyson, Can We Control the Amount of Carbon Dioxide in
the Atmosphere, IEA (0)-76-4, Institute for Energy Analysis,
By comparing Eq. (1) and Eq. (2) we see that if we wanted to plant
Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 13
enough forest to offset 100% of current annual fossil fuel combustion,
pp., July, 1976.
we would have to double the forested area of the world, i.e. add 5 times
2. F.J. Dyson and G. Marland, Technical Fixes for the Climatic
the U.S. land area.
Effects of CO2, in W.P. Elliot and L. Machta (eds.), Workshop on
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
7
the Global Effects of Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels, Miami
Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 93, No. D8, pp. 9341-
Beach, Florida, March 7-11, 1977, U.S. Department of Energy,
9364, August 20, 1988.
CONF-770385, pp. 111-118, 1979.
4. W.M. Post, W.R. Emanuel, P.J. Zinke, A.G. Stagenberger, Soil
3. J. Hansen, I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G.
Carbon Pools and World Life Zones, Nature, Vol. 298, No.
Russell, P. Stone, Global Climate Changes as Forecast by God-
5870, pp. 156-159, July 1982.
dard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model,
Symposium: The Forum Energy Study
The following three papers are shortened versions of background papers which will appear as part of the report of the Forum Study Group on
Energy. They address important energy-related topics which have not lately been the subject of widespread public discussion. By publishing
them, Physics and Society hopes to stimulate debate on these important issues. The study is chaired by Ruth H. Howes, Department of Physics,
Ball State University, Muncie, IN 47306, and Anthony Fainberg, 643 G Street, NE, Washington, DC 20002.
Energy and Transportation: Our Achilles' Heel?
Alan Chachich
Introduction
Of all the improvements that will reduce, but not eliminate, our
consumption of petroleum, those to internal combustion engines are
A balanced analysis of energy issues must consider energy end-
most critical. The primary focus here falls on leaner-burning combus-
use as well as power generation. Transportation is a critical end-user.
tion, higher compression, lower inertia for moving engine parts,
It claims 28 percent of the energy consumed in the United States and
shifting rejected heat from the cooling system to the exhaust stream,
this fraction is increasing. The nature of this energy use is also
and recovering more energy from the exhaust. Stratified combustion
significant as it accounts for almost two-thirds of our petroleum
is a lean burn technique that attempts to combine the higher efficiency
consumption. In fact, 97% of our transportation depends on oil. That
of diesels with the greater responsiveness of gasoline engines.
brings us to our fundamental energy problem: a nearly total depend-
Advanced knock suppression techniques will determine the success
ence on petroleum. The vulnerability of our commerce implies a
of these strategies to improve combustion.
direct security issue on top of the financial and environmental costs.
Advanced cooling techniques such as evaporative cooling and oil
There are two solutions to this problem: drive more efficiently,
cooling will improve efficiency by: eliminating pumps and fans and
and drive less.
so reducing parasitic losses, lowering engine friction via higher
I say "drive" because as the Table shows, 85% of our transporta-
temperatures, improving aerodynamics (use of heat exchanger or
tion energy is consumed on the highway. Obviously improvements
smaller radiator), reducing warm-up time (less coolant), and lowering
to auto and truck efficiency are crucial.
weight. Low heat rejection (LHR) or adiabatic engine technology
may increase efficiency by 10-20%. The ongoing evolution of the
TABLE: Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode
LHRE has recently been discussed (1). The higher temperature
operation necessary to shift heat to the exhaust will require materials
Mode
Quads
%
to withstand the more severe environment and significant advances in
high temperature lubrication. Multiple level systems employing
Total domestic transportation
18.61
100.0
liquid and solid lubricants together are likely. Gas lubrication is a
Highway sub-total
15.90
85.4
much more distant possibility. Many schemes exist for recovering
auto
8.92
47.9
exhaust energy electrically and mechanically. They range from
truck
6.83
36.7
simple turbocharging to complicated turbocompounding systems that
bus
0.15
0.8
return energy directly to the driveshaft.
Air sub-total
1.65
8.9
Future transmissions will keep engines operating closer to their
commercial
1.50
8.1
most efficient load ranges through the use of more gears, continuously
general
0.15
0.8
variable belts (CVT), and electronic controls. The greater stresses in
Pipeline
0.50
2.7
the transmissions of the heavier American cars will hamper CVT
Rail sub-total
0.40
2.1
application here. Electronic controls may save energy that is currently
passenger
0.01
<.1
lost to inefficient shifting by drivers.
freight
0.39
2.1
Electronic controls can save energy in many areas. The most
Water
0.14
0.8
obvious one is electronic engine control (EEC). Advanced sensors
Mass transit
<.02
<.1
will supply instantaneous data in place of the cycle averaged data from
Compiled from the "NationalTransportationStatisticsAnnual Report,
present sensors. The myriad of electronic subsystems will eventually
be integrated into cohesive fail-safe or fail-soft systems. Electronics
1988," DOT-TSC-RSPA-88-2.
outside the engine will also enhance efficiency. Two examples are
electronic braking and sound cancellation systems. The latter could
Driving more efficiently
make mufflers obsolete, eliminating their load on the engine. Higher
costs will be the greatest drawback of the advanced controls and
Transportation efficiency increased substantially in the last dec-
sensors.
ade. Automobile fuel efficiency almost doubled from 1975 to 1986
Advanced materials will reduce fuel consumption through lower
(16 to 28 mpg). Light truck efficiency improved similarly (14 to 22
weight, lower inertia parts, reduced friction, advanced sensors and
mpg). Unfortunately, this saving was offset by a 31 percent increase
increased adiabaticy. Weight reduction will make the first and likely
in highway travel. The technology for further great improvements
the greatest contribution. Note that new materials may offset their
exists or is on the horizon. It can basically be considered in two
higher cost through lower manufacturing and assembly costs.
groups: advances in efficiency that will help conserve our petroleum
supplies, and advances that make alternative fuels possible. Many
The author is a member of the technical staff at Lincoln Laboratory,
developments of course will do both.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lexington, MA 02173-9108.
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
8
Improvements in rolling resistance and aerodynamics have been
The other part
significant this past decade and will be in the next. The efficiency
gains from both, particularly aerodynamics, will diminish as practical
Technology is but a team member in the solution to our energy
limits are reached. Engine improvements will overtake them in
problems. Public understanding and policy are others. Policies for
significance by the end of the next decade.
both setting research priorities and applying technologies are crucial.
Work in alternate fuels falls into both groups. Developments to
Automobiles that achieve 60 to 100 mpg exist but await more
apply low-grade oils, natural gas and butane will help conserve
favorable markets. The time constant of petroleum price swings is too
petroleum supplies. Alcohols, coal, vegetable oils and hydrogen
short for the free-market interaction between consumers and industry
provide options which may replace petroleum. Methanol, which is
to thwart a crisis. Consumers also discount the value of future energy
actually petroleum-related, may be practical before the others. In-
savings heavily (20-30%) weakening the incentive for industry to
compatibility with the existing fuel distribution systems may be the
concentrate on energy efficiency. In fact, as vehicle fuel economy
greatest barrier to the use of alternative fuels.
increases, its significance to the consumer diminishes. That is
Gas turbines suffer lower fuel economy and higher cost so most
because fuel costs become a smaller fraction of the total operating
development will be for aviation. Road application is further ham-
cost. At current gasoline prices a 10 mpg improvement to a 30 mpg
pered by the additional efficiency penalty from converting exhaust
auto saves the typical driver less than $100 a year. On the other hand,
stream energy to shaft power. They are lighter, quieter, produce lower
a 0.1 mpg improvement to the U.S. auto fleet would save 20,000
emissions and have a substantial capacity for alternative fuels and so
barrels of oil per day. That is the estimated production from the
may eventually find a place on the road.
controversial Georges Bank fishing grounds off of the East Coast.
A stirling engine vehicle is getting 10% better fuel efficiency than
Policies to resolve this conflict between the short term benefit to the
the internal combustion engine version. Stirling engines are also quiet
individual and the long term needs of the nation present a formidable
and can have multifuel capability. Mass producibility and reliability
challenge which must be overcome.
remain to be demonstrated. Its much lower emissions may become
The long term security of the nation is involved so the federal
the greatest incentive for further development.
government has responsibility here. Policies must be evolved in
Dramatic developments in the past decade showed that fuel cells
cooperation with industry to be most effective. The free market alone
can provide the most efficient power plants for transportation, (60-
may not be sufficient but the government is not likely to be able to
80% efficient). Other advantages include quiet operation, negligible
operate an automobile company better than its board of directors.
pollution and alternative fuel capability. This technology also falls
Both the industry and the government share responsibility for their
into both groups. Petroleum-based fuels are the easiest to apply to
past antagonistic relationship. Both must strive to leave that behind.
current fuel cells, yet in the long term they have great promise for
The government may also have to solve the "chicken and egg"
alternative fuels. Methanol would be the most likely fuel for a
dilemma posed by the automotive and petroleum industries. The
transportation power plant. Poor response time is currently the
major automakers do not want to invest in alternatively fueled
greatest obstacle. Fuel cells are a high risk but high pay-off technol-
vehicles without being certain that customers will have sufficient
ogy that can address our fundamental petroleum dependence in the
access to the alternative fuel. The petrochemical industry does not
longer term.
want to invest in the distribution network for an alternate fuel without
Other alternatives include electric/hybrid and solar vehicles.
being certain that there will be a market for it. The government may
Mechanical and electric power storage systems under development
need to assume some of the risk. One option would be to subsidize
will be crucial to many of the alternate power plants, such as electric
centrally fueled vehicle fleets and phase out the subsidy as the market
motors and fuel cells. Recent developments in photovoltaics make it
grows. Fuels could be subsidized instead. In either case, care must
hard to judge the potential for solar vehicles, especially for the near
be taken to prevent loud but narrow political constituencies from
term. Solar powered vehicles certainly would be more desirable in
squelching superior alternatives for their own gain.
terms of petroleum dependency and pollution. Efforts are underway
Federal planning and action has been reactive. Consider that our
to produce electric and solar commuter vehicles. The current market
contingency response policy is a few months supply of oil in the
may be a greater obstacle than the technical problems of cell effi-
strategic petroleum reserve. That must change. We need preventive
ciency and light-weight storage.
policies that will lower the probability of a supply disruption and
mitigate its effects if one occurs. Policy questions that should get
Driving less
public attention include:
What will it take to achieve petroleum-independent transporta-
Technology can alter our transportation requirements as well as
tion?
consumption. Trips can be made more effective, shorter or unneces-
What will it take to achieve hydrocarbon independence?
sary. For starters, operational factors can be studied and improved at
Then what should our long-term research goals and priorities be?
all levels. Fuel can be saved by improving individual vehicle
How can we provide stable and consistent research funding?
operating practices, traffic management, and infrastructure design.
How do we reduce consumption? CAFE (Corporate Averaged
An example of each would be cab heaters to reduce the idling of
Fleet Economy) standards?
trucks, retiming traffic lights, and airports designed for maximum fuel
Can we improve the CAFE?
efficiency.
Tax policies (gasoline, hydrocarbon, vehicle)?
Our transportation requirement can be analyzed as a whole, and
Incentives (reward or rebate for purchasing efficient vehicles, R &
our use of the various modes to meet it can be optimized. This would
D support)?
be a departure from the past as the impact of improvements in one
How can we improve public transportation?
mode on the other modes would be considered, as well as energy
Readers interested in detailed policy options are referred to the
security, total cost, environmental impact, and safety. For example,
thoughtful discussions in references (2-4).
does it make more sense to build more airports in the Northeast, or to
Finally, education must be mentioned. Without question a well
slow air traffic growth with a magnetic light rail system or expanded
informed electorate will lead to better decisions by our government
highways?
and the individual consumer. The scientific community has needs
We can also replace or eliminate transportation requirements
here too. Specifically, we need to base our strategy for the future on
directly, for example by videoconferencing, telephone banking and
our past successes. The problem is that there has been very little
other telecommunication advances. Any energy use extracts a finan-
evaluation of what worked, what did not, and why during the last
cial and environmental cost so conservation is the most beneficial
energy crisis. If we are fated to repeat that history it will not be for any
solution.
good reason.
Much of the energy savings we realize now are due to programs
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
9
initiated in the 1970s. The choices we make now will determine our
ence, V. 240, pp 1157-1162, 1988.
vulnerability to the petroleum supply in the next decade or longer. We
2. Bleviss, Deborah Lynn, The New Oil Crisis and Fuel Economy
must revisit this question with urgency now while oil prices are low,
Technologies, Preparing the Light Transportation Industry for
especially as most experts predict a supply disruption within the next
the 1990s, Quorum Books, 1988.
10 years. Too much is at stake to allow ourselves to be lulled by low
3. Transportation Research Board, "Research Priorities in Trans-
oil prices, when we know better.
portation and Energy,' "Transportation Research Circular N323,
Sept. 1987.
References
4. Rosenfeld, A.H., Mowris, R.J., "Energy Efficiency: Best Way to
Save Money, Slow Global Warming," Physics & Society, V. 18,
1. Zucchetto, Myers, Johnson & Miller, "An Assessment of the
n. 3, July 1989.
Performance and Requirements for 'Adiabatic' Engines," Sci-
Wind as a Utility Generation Option
Jamie Chapman
[An annotated list of selected references is available from the author
turbine is collected and combined with that from others by a wiring
upon request.]
network similar to a utility distribution system. The collected power
is then delivered through a substation to the utility grid for use by
Introduction
consumers. A small, central control facility monitors and controls the
status of each wind turbine as well as the total delivered energy.
As a bulk power generating option for utilities in the nineties and
Except for the wind turbine components themselves, all compo-
beyond, wind turbine electric power generating systems are among
nents and subsystems which make up a wind farm are the same as used
the most attractive of the renewable energy generation technologies.
in conventional utility applications. This includes the pad mount
In their current form, wind-driven power stations represent not a
transformers used to combine the power from several wind turbines
replacement for conventional power stations but rather a comple-
and step-up the voltage for transmission to the substation. The
ment, forming a part of the total generation mix. In principle, wind
substation itself, with its associated monitoring, control, switching
systems could replace a part of the existing conventional generation
and protective devices is purchased from the same vendors who
capacity. More realistically, they will preclude the need for or delay
supply utilities.
the addition of conventional capacity in order to meet the demands of
Integration and compatibility. The integration of wind-driven
load growth.
electrical generation systems with the balance of a utility system is
Wind-driven power systems represent a renewable technology
straightforward and is accomplished using standard utility compo-
which may be described as mid-course in its development and
nents and practices. Control and monitoring capabilities of modern
maturation. It is a renewable power technology which has evolved
wind power systems are analogous to those used for similar functions
rapidly over the last decade and has accumulated significant, large-
in conventional utility systems.
scale utility-connected experience, principally in California.
For current systems, there is a limitation on the amount of wind
As aresult of the impetus provided by the oil embargo of 1973, the
power capacity which can be integrated with conventional power
1978 National Energy Act, the later implementation of PURPA and
sources. Based upon the second-generation wind technology cur-
by tax credit support through 1985, concerted development of modern
rently in use, the ratio of wind to conventional power systems is
wind turbine power systems began in the mid-seventies. Both public
thought to be in the range 5-15%. This limited range arises from the
and private sector funding has been used to develop this technology.
time variability and other technical characteristics of the power
The first large-scale, utility-connected installations appeared in
delivered by wind systems.
California in 1981. Since then, private sector investment capital in
Third-generation wind systems, now in their earliest stages of
excess of two billion dollars has resulted in the construction and
development, will allow wind utilization to twice this range (i.e., 10-
commercial operation of wind-driven power stations whose capacity
30%) while still maintaining existing utility standards of power
was rated at more than 1300 megawatts by the end of 1989. Thus in
quality and system stability. In certain applications, the third-
this country, by the end of 1989, grid-connected wind systems had
generation wind systems, when augmented with moderate amounts of
provided capacity equivalent to a large nuclear or coal-fired power
energy storage, will allow the conventional power sources to be
station.
turned off.
The early experience revealed severe shortcomings in the designs
Advantages and characteristics. Compared with either fossil-
of the first-generation wind turbine components. These deficiencies
fueled or nuclear power stations, wind-driven power stations have the
can be traced largely to a lack of knowledge about the extreme
advantages of modularity and much shorter construction times. Due
dynamic range and attack times of the wind and its gust structure.
to the distributed nature of the generation sources (the wind turbine
Second-generation designs, introduced in the mid-eighties, generally
components), wind-driven power stations are inherently modular.
have proven themselves able to accommodate and harness these wind
Capacity can be added incrementally, as required, with a short
forces. These systems have generated substantial quantities of
planning horizon.
electricity. For example, during 1989, these systems delivered about
In addition to their inherent modularity, wind-driven power sta-
2 billion kilowatt-hours of electrical energy, enough to meet the
tions can be installed and placed into operation very quickly. There-
residential needs of a city the size of Washington, DC or San
fore the cost of funds used during construction is correspondingly
Francisco.
less. For non-renewable power stations, this cost of funds can be a
significant component of the installed capital cost, and therefore of the
Utility-scale wind turbine power systems
cost of energy.
In their operation, wind-driven power plants utilize no fossil fuels
Wind-driven power stations. Large-scale, utility-connected, wind-
or radioactive materials. Therefore there is no associated risk of
driven power stations frequently are referred to as wind farms, wind
environmental degradation or contribution to global warming. The
parks or Windplants, a trade-marked term used by U.S. Windpower,
capital and maintenance costs associated with scrubbers and other
Inc.
These large-scale power generating systems are comprised of a
The author is a power systems consultant, 15 Sleeper Street, No. 402,
Boston, Massachusetts 02210.
large number of arrayed wind turbines. The power from each wind
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
10
pollution control devices are eliminated. The costs and continuing
short-term fluctuations are significantly reduced, but still present.
risks associated with decommissioning nuclear power stations are
The extreme short-term variability (minutes to tens of minutes) is
eliminated.
the principal reason why the fraction of wind power systems deliver-
Finally, the best of the second-generation wind systems currently
ing power to a total utility system is limited. In the simplest case, in
in operation are economically competitive with newly-constructed
order to deliver the constant level of power required by a constant
nuclear and coal-fired power plants. The life-cycle cost of energy is
load, the time-variability of the wind-derived power must be compen-
7-9 cents/kWH. Measured on a rated power capacity basis, the
sated for by increasing or decreasing the power from conventional
installed, all-in capital cost is in the range $1000-$1400 per kW. As
generating units. Even if technically possible, frequent, short-term
a result of integrating research advances with the significant operating
ramping up and down of these units increases their required mainte-
experience gained over the last decade, these cost values are expected
nance and complicates the control and coordination of the entire
to decrease to 4-6 cents/kWH and $600-$1000 per kW.
power system.
In addition to the time-variability of the real (or useable) power
How wind-driven power stations differ
delivered to the grid, there is a second characteristic of the power
delivered by most of the second-generation wind turbine generators
Wind-driven power stations differ from conventional power sta-
currently in use. Most of the wind turbines now in use incorporate (for
tions in two principal ways, each with an associated consequence.
very good design and economic reasons) a generator which requires
These are (1) the distributed generation sources and the associated
some electrical support from the conventional power sources also on
land use, and (2) the nature of the fuel and associated characteristics
the utility grid. It is a sort of symbiotic relationship. The particular
of the generated power.
class of generators, called induction generators, require for their
Configuration and land use. Conventional utility power systems
operation both an external voltage source and a source of reactive (or
consist of a relatively small number of generation units each having
non-work-producing) power. The requirement for the so-called
a relatively large power capacity. Wind-driven power stations are
excitation voltage poses no difficulty and carries no economic penalty
comprised of a number of geographically-distributed generating
since the wind turbines must be connected to the grid anyway.
units (the wind turbines) each of moderate capacity. Whereas the size
However, to the extent that the wind turbines require reactive power,
of a conventional generating unit is measured in units of hundreds of
there is an economic penalty. This is because the conventional
megawatts and may occupy only a few acres, an individual wind
generation sources must be operated off of their most efficient
turbine typically is rated in units of hundreds of kilowatts. The array
operating point.
of wind turbines, which when interconnected, have a capacity equiva-
lent to that of a conventional generating unit, may occupy a land area
Future trends
of hundreds of acres.
Although wind-driven power stations do inherently require more
Geographical usage beyond California. The wind power stations
geographical area or acreage than conventional stations, the land on
installed in California generated about one percent of that state's total
which wind power stations are situated can continue to be used for its
electrical energy needs during 1989. Two factors will increase the
original purpose. This is because the individual wind turbine sites, the
impact of wind energy generation in California. First, the perform-
service roads, substations and other supporting infrastructure actually
ance of the existing plant will increase through continuing perform-
occupy and disturb only a small fraction, typically about 10 percent,
ance and reliability improvements. Second, the currently-installed
of the total area containing the wind power station. For example, the
capacity conservatively represents development of less than half of
large wind installations in northern California are located on ranch
the state's wind resource potential.
land. The ranchers continue to graze cattle on their land. As another
In other parts of the US, studies published by the Solar Energy
example, the 2000 wind turbines in service in Denmark are distributed
Research Institute (SERI) and by the Electric Power Research Insti-
throughout the country, the majority in small clusters associated with
tute (EPRI) indicate a much larger total potential for the generation of
an industrial facility or group of residences.
electricity by wind systems. Regions other than California include the
Fuel and power characteristics. The fuel for conventional power
Great Plains, the Atlantic seaboard, the Great Lakes coastal regions,
generating units typically is either a fossil fuel (coal, oil or gas) or a
the Appalachian mountains, the Aleutian islands and Hawaii.
material supporting nuclear fission. The availability of this fuel is not
Technology trends. The principal technology improvements will
a function of the vagaries of nature but of production capability,
be associated with increases in wind turbine size, improved knowl-
logistics and storage capabilities.
edge of structural materials and structural responses, the incorpora-
The fuel for wind turbines comes without requiring industrial
tion of improved control hardware and algorithms, utilization of
support and without cost. However the availability of wind, while
power-conversion electronics, and the development and integration
statistically predictable, is not subject to our control. It is variable in
of short-term energy storage systems.
time on various time scales: short-term (minutes and hours), diurnally
The power rating of wind turbines used thus far in the California
and seasonally.
installations, on average, have doubled from about 50 to 100 kW. For
The energy in the wind and therefore the electrical energy deliv-
wind farm applications, economic optimization studies have indi-
ered is reasonably predictable seasonally and diurnally. It is predict-
cated that the optimum size lies in the range 200 to 600 kW. This
able enough so that California utilities with large amounts of wind
corresponds roughly to the rotor diameter range 20 to 40 meters.
capacity routinely factor the expected wind production into their
Advances in airfoil performance and materials used for the wind
generation planning and dispatch.
turbine blades will allow the much wider geographic utilization of
Short-term time variability is not as predictable. Thus the short-
wind turbines. Changes in the electrical configuration of wind turbine
term power output from a single turbine mirrors the fluctuations of the
generators, made possible by advances in power electronics and
wind. There is however some smoothing owing to inertial effects of
digital control, will further enhance the energy production perform-
the turbine rotor. Power electronics and adaptive control systems now
ance of wind turbine power generation systems and make them even
being investigated for third-generation wind turbines will further
more competitive with fossil-fueled and nuclear power stations.
smooth wind-induced fluctuations in the output electrical power.
Wind turbines will be self-controlling machines, able to adapt to
Surprisingly, the short-term variability of the output power from
changing wind and load conditions to a much greater extent than is
an array is quite smooth relative to that from a single turbine. This is
currently implemented.
because the short-term wind time series at nearby wind turbine sites
A major improvement in the wind turbine system architecture will
are relatively uncorrelated. When the outputs from a large ensemble
be the incorporation of power electronics between the wind turbine
of geographically-distributed wind turbines are combined, the resul-
generator and the load (the utility grid). As a wind system element,
tant, summed power delivered to the grid can be quite smooth. The
power electronics will bring several major benefits. It will allow the
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
11
wind turbine rotor to be more efficient in converting power in the wind
whether as a result of geopolitical factors, simple depletion or envi-
to delivered electrical power. It will provide a new control dimension
ronmental concerns and the attendant costs.
which should permit lighter-weight structural elements, thus reduc-
These factors, together with the general perception that there is no
ing the capital cost. Finally, power electronics will completely
urgent need for renewable sources of energy, represent a unique
eliminate the requirement for reactive power from conventional
window of opportunity. This is an opportunity of such importance
sources. The incorporation of power electronics will be a major factor
that public policy can legitimately be employed to shape the future
in allowing the increased usage of wind systems with conventional
and assist in realizing the benefits offered by these energy generation
generation sources.
systems.
As discussed above, the principal characteristic which limits the
Public policy initiatives to further the technical development,
use of wind systems without any support from conventional power
economics and application of wind-driven power systems (and all
sources is the time-variability of the real power. Research in and the
renewable power systems) include:
development of cost-effective energy storage and conversion systems
tax incentives based upon the energy delivered;
will smooth this variability.
recognition in energy pricing of both the direct and the indirect
costs of energy generation by the various sources;
Public policy initiatives
provisions in power purchase contracts offering some level of
predictability for debt service of construction financing;
The current era may be characterized as one of low energy prices
majority utility ownership of renewable power systems;
coupled with uncertainty as to when (or whether) energy prices will
access to long-distance power transmission (wheeling) by inde-
rise. Practically all financial incentives for the further private sector
pendent power producers as well as utilities;
advancement of renewable energy technology have been allowed to
incentives for the export of renewable power equipment and
expire. These circumstances make it difficult to attract the investment
services.
of private-sector capital for further improvements and applications of
Such policy initiatives would attract private sector capital to
the technology. Similarly, federal research budgets have been re-
further the needed technical development and facilitate additional
duced drastically.
renewable energy generation facilities. This would mitigate further
At the same time, there is increasing concern and knowledge about
environmental damage, and permit US manufacturers to establish and
the effects of conventional power sources on our environment. And
maintain a pre-eminent export position in this capital-intensive,
a case can be made that energy costs will increase significantly,
environmentally-importani power generation technology.
Energy Storage
John G. Ingersoll
The importance of energy storage
Renewable energy resources can be effectively utilized if the time
of their occurrence can match the demand side. Because such a
Energy is useful only if it is available when needed and then if
coincidence of supply and demand is very unlikely, particularly over
it is in a usable form. Keeping energy available until it is needed and
short periods of time such as a day, storage becomes almost impera-
in a usable form constitutes storage. Some forms of energy by virtue
tive. One of the most frequently encountered renewable resources,
of their physical nature lend themselves more readily to storage than
hydro power lends itself to a relatively easy solution as water can be
others. Two extreme examples are oil and electricity. The former can
stored behind a dam. On the other hand, solar and wind energy have
be stored in a simple and inexpensive manner in a tank or container
to be stored in the form of heat, electricity or a chemical compound
after it is extracted from the ground. The latter requires rather
(e.g., hydrogen) to command a higher value in the energy market. For
sophisticated and invariably expensive means of storage such as
example, the economic success of the Luz solar thermal-electric
electrochemical batteries. The problem arising from the difficulty of
power plants in the Mojave Desert in California (285 MW in operation
storage for some forms of energy may be further compounded by
and 350 in planning) is due to the availability of thermal storage so that
variability in demand and supply.
the electricity can be generated to meet more closely the demand. It
is also interesting to note that even though the utility grids in the U.S.,
Improving efficiency
because of their vast interconnections, can provide an initial storage
for solar and wind electricity of up to an estimated 20% total
Energy storage in general results in an efficient utilization of
penetration of the generation system, utilities refuse to offer capacity
energy resources. Moreover, energy storage almost guarantees that
credits for solar- and wind-derived electricity for lack of storage at the
certain desirable but presently uneconomic energy sources and end
generation site.
uses become more competitive. Three examples illustrate these
In the transportation sector tremendous energy savings can be
points: utility load leveling, renewable energy resource use and
realized if, for instance, the internal combustion engine is replaced by
alternative transportation means.
an electric motor. This requires, however, the replacement of the
One of the major problems facing the electric utility industry is
gasoline tank having an energy density of about 13 kWh/kg (9.4kWh/
matching supply with demand. Traditionally, utilities have set up a
1) with, say, electrochemical batteries the maximum energy density of
three-tiered generation scheme so as to produce electricity with the
which may range from 40 Wh/kg (80 Wh/l) for commercially avail-
best efficiency and adequate reliability. Typically 40-50% of the load
able lead-acid to possibly 200 Wh/kg (100 Wh/l) for sodium-sulfur
(base load) is supplied by large coal or nuclear units of the highest
ones.
efficiency operating most of the year. Another 30-40% of the load
Energy storage systems are normally classified into five catego-
(the intermediate or cycling load) is met by the utility's less modern
ries depending on the form and origin of the energy stored: mechani-
and less efficient coal, oil and gas units as well as hydroelectric units
cal, electrical, thermal, chemical, and biological storage.
and possibly gas turbines. Brief peak loads are met by still older
fossil-fuel units and by gas- and oil-fired turbines and diesel genera-
Mechanical and electrical storage
tors. Availability of proper storage to accumulate the electricity
output during periods of low demand (nights, weekends) for periods
Mechanical storage comprises pumped hydrostorage, compressed
of high demand can in essence eliminate cycling and peaking units
air and flywheels. Pumped hydrostorage involves fairly large systems
altogether, while base load plants are operating at a constant load for
The author is a physicist, residing at 21315 Lighthill Drive, Topanga,
maximum efficiency and minimum outage time.
CA 90290.
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
12
on the order of several hundred up to a few thousand MW. Because
Thermal storage
of the remote location of appropriate reservoirs from urban centers
and the potential environmental implications of permanently flooding
Thermal storage comprises the traditional sensible and latent heat
large areas, the likelihood of further significant pumped hydrostorage
storage as well as the more novel thermochemical storage. Thermal
development in this country is very small.
storage appears to be of paramount importance in the development of
Compressed air systems can vary in size from tens of MW to
solar thermal technologies both at the utility level as well as the
several hundred MW. They represent a new technology in its initial
residential and commercial building levels. It can be also used as for
phase of commercialization 290 MW plant near Bremen, Germany
load leveling in certain situations. Sensible heat storage can employ
since 1979 and a 60 MW plant in Alabama, to be completed in 1990).
water (1.2 Wh/l°C), rocks (0.6 Wh/l°C), and other materials. For
Although compressed air systems are not yet as efficient as hydrostor-
example, a specially formulated oil is used in the Luz solar thermal-
age (50% versus 70%), they have more than an order of magnitude
electric plants at an operating temperature of 250 °C-350 °C. Iron,
higher specific energy density (110 Wh/kg and 8 Wh/l at 20 atm) and
which has almost the same heat capacity as water, can operate at high
an inherent versatility of location compared to the latter. Efficiencies
temperatures unlike water and can transport heat much more effec-
approaching 70% can be attained by improving the design of recu-
tively than rocks.
perators that can use the heat extracted during compression to reheat
Of the various latent heat storage materials at ambient tempera-
the air during expansion.
tures, calcium chloride hexahydrate is commercially available mostly
The advent of new lightweight materials with high tensile strength,
for thermal storage in buildings and comes prepackaged in a number
such as carbon fiber, kevlar, and fused silica to mention a few, has
of configurations, including rods, translucent pods and steel cans.
significantly enhanced the chances of flywheels becoming practical
This particular material in a proprietary formulation to minimize
storage systems. Specific energy densities on the order of 50 Wh/kg
phase separation has a phase change temperature of 27 °C, a thermal
(60 Wh/1) are already available, albeit for specific applications
storage capacity of 48 Wh/kg (82 Wh/1), and a life expectancy of
because of the cost of composites (the Canadian Coast Guard is
several thousand cycles. On the other hand, several high temperature
replacing the present lead-acid battery storage of photovoltaic-pow-
latent heat chemical compounds are available. Besides storing heat,
ered remote light stations with standardized 8.5 kWh at 23,000 rpm S-
cold storage is becoming nowadays even more important. Using off-
glass, carbon fiber, aluminum composite flywheels). An order of
peak electricity, one can freeze (93 Wh/kg) or possibly chill water,
magnitude higher densities are possible with the full utilization of the
which is then used for air conditioning, refrigeration or other related
new materials. Thus, composite flywheels making use of several
applications during on-peak electricity demand periods. Several
layers of different materials to optimize energy density are compact,
companies are already manufacturing standardized water containers
have fficiencies in excess of 90%, a life expectancy over 20 years and
that can be used to store certain amount of cold. The typical efficiency
are well suited for load leveling and renewable storage of residential
of storing and recovering sensible and latent heat may be on the order
and small commercial buildings as well as for increasing the effi-
of 80 to 90% depending on system design.
ciency and/or powering of electric vehicles.
Thermochemical storage typically entails the storage of solar heat
Electrical storage includes electrochemical batteries and magnetic
as chemical energy in materials produced by the thermal dissociation
superconducting coils. The last decade has seen the commercializa-
of certain compounds. The recombination of the generated chemicals
tion of advanced lead-acid batteries employing the so-called starved
will release heat at a desirable rate. Thermochemical systems operate
electrolyte concept, which makes use of a highly porous separator to
at high temperatures and are limited to specific materials. Two
keep the electrolyte immobilized. The need to add water is elimi-
proposed and studied, but never built and tested, systems involve the
nated. The electrode grids are also made of a lead-calcium alloy to
dissociation of ammonia (915 Wh/kg) and sulfur trioxide (336 Wh/
further enhance the life expectancy of the battery. Specific energy
kg). An estimated heat storage efficiency of 70% is typically quoted
densities on the order of 35 to 45 Wh/kg are already available with an
for thermochemical processes.
efficiency of 80% and over 1500 discharge cycles at 80% depth of
discharge. Of all the other large energy storage electrochemical
Chemical and biological storage
batteries, the one nearing commercialization is the sodium-sulfur
battery. It can attain a 180 to 200 Wh/kg specific energy density and
Energy can be held in the chemical bonds of many compounds and
an 80-85% efficiency. The molten sodium and sulfur electrodes
released by exothermic reactions. Combustion is the most notable
insure a very long life, although the solid beta-alumina electrolyte
such reaction. Chemical energy storage is very practical for several
limits this life at present to 1000-1500 cycles. Electrochemical
uses, the most prominent of which is transportation, because of its
batteries can offer storage ranging from one kW up to several MW and
high specific energy density. Two of the most important chemical
as such are ideally suited for: load leveling for utilities (the largest
storage compounds are methanol and hydrogen.
systems in the world are a 17 MW in Berlin, Germany since 1987 and
Methanol has attained preeminence because it is the feedstock
a 10 MW at Chino, California since 1988, both lead-acid of the
material of several chemicals and most recently has been proposed as
standard open cell type), commercial and residential buildings; re-
a substitute for gasoline in internal combustion engines. Methanol is
newable energy storage at the residential level (thousands of pho-
made from the catalytic reaction of hydrogen and carbon monoxide
tovoltaic-powered houses exist in the U.S. and around the world); and
both of which can be obtained readily from either coal or natural gas.
powering electric vehicles (the GM Impact unveiled in 1990 has a
Methanol can also be obtained from biomass but with considerable
13.6 kWh storage in 32 advanced lead-acid batteries with a range of
more complexity. The major advantage of methanol as fuel is its
124 miles).
presumed reduction in the generation of ozone and emissions of
Electricity can be stored with very high efficiency in supercon-
hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide, while it appears to generate
ducting coils in the form of a magnetic field. This development is in
formaldehyde (which can be reduced through proper on-board cata-
its infancy, but the potential is great as it offers a direct and mostly
lysts). Production of methanol from coal increases the amount of
superior substitute for pumped hydrostorage. Although the specific
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere compared to the combustion of
energy density of this system is comparable to that of pumped
gasoline of equal energy content, while production of it from natural
hydrostorage, its efficiency is about 95% (2% refrigeration losses and
gas may result in a small reduction of carbon dioxide. Methanol from
3% AC/DC conversion losses), and it can respond literally in a
biomass eliminates net greenhouse gas emissions but cannot be
fraction of a second to supply and demand changes. It is envisioned
generated in adequate quantities to replace all petroleum-derived
that standard utility systems will have a size of 1000 MW with 5000
fuels in the U.S.
MWh capacity, a 5 h charge of discharge time and a circular coil of
The low vapor pressure of methanol requires a 85-15% methanol-
1000 m in diameter.
gasoline mixture for cold starts. It has been estimated that this small
addition of gasoline results in only half as much reduction in ozone as
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
13
that from the use of pure methanol. Hence, the impact of methanol in
eliminate local pollution problems without worsening the greenhouse
reducing the greenhouse effect and air pollution appears to be very
effect any more than directly burning the natural gas used in the
small, if any at all. We may also note that there is a widespread
generation of hydrogen. If anything, hydrogen from natural gas
perception, which may not be entirely correct, that methanol can
would lessen the greenhouse effect because the fuel efficiency of a
easily replace gasoline with relatively small modifications in the
hydrogen-powered internal combustion engine appears to be as much
present fuel distribution system and vehicles. It should be also noted
as 40% higher compared to gasoline due to the gaseous nature of
that methanol has only half the specific energy density of gasoline (6.4
hydrogen and its high speed of diffusion in the air mixture.
kWh/kg and 5kWh/l).
Biological storage is identical to chemical storage in principle, the
The idea of utilizing hydrogen as a universal fuel as well as an
only difference being that the chemical compounds are produced
energy storage medium is not a new one. The concept of the so-called
naturally by photosynthesis. Nature generates a multitude of organic
hydrogen economy has been around for two decades now. In this
compounds starting with water, carbon dioxide and solar radiation.
scenario hydrogen becomes the foremost energy carrier even more so
However, the conversion of solar radiation to chemical energy pro-
than electricity. Although hydrogen can be generated from coal and
ceeds at a very small efficiency. It is a matter of simple arithmetic to
natural gas, its true usefulness comes from being generated by the
realize that at a 1% conversion efficiency, it is practically impossible
decomposition of water with the aid of renewable energy resources.
to meet the energy needs of the U.S. from biological sources. How-
The best known way of decomposing water is electrolysis. Thermo-
ever, biological sources can supply most or all the needs of selected
chemical cycles offer another possible avenue of hydrogen generation
fuel usage such as in agriculture. Moreover, biological sources can
from water, but none has ever been tried on a commercial scale.
supply all our societal needs for the chemicals currently generated
Hydrogen is the ideal fuel for any combustion process for it produces
from petroleum. For example, a mixture of 40% soybean oil (10.8
virtually no pollutants with the possible exception of nitrogen oxides
kWh/kg, 10 kWh/l) and 60% ethanol (8.3 kWh/kg, 8.9 kWh/l), from
in internal combustion engines (which can be nonetheless reduced to
sugar fermentation, can be used interchangeably with diesel oil in
well below the emissions from a gasoline powered engine). The
trucks and tractors. The cost of this mixture is presently $1.60 per
catalytic combustion of hydrogen, for example, in household uses
gallon vs. $1 per gallon for diesel fuel. As another example, we can
totally eliminates nitrogen oxides as well. Hydrogen can be trans-
mention the use of starch either in a mixture with polyethylene or even
ported and distributed by pipeline like natural gas (a hydrogen
in pure form to produce varying grades of biodegradable plastics.
pipeline has been operating in the Ruhr area of Germany since the
Again the cost of such biodegradable plastics may be two to three
1930's).
times the cost of the petroleum-derived products at the present time.
Hydrogen's use as an automotive fuel presents some space prob-
lems because of its low density. Although the specific energy density
Policy implications
of hydrogen is 38.9 kWh/kg, it is reduced to 0.4 kWh/kg (0.8 kWh/l),
1.1 kWh/kg (0.55 kWh/l) and 6-7kWh/kg (0.95 kWh/l), respectively,
A natural question to ask at this point is why energy storage,
if stored on-board the vehicle in a metal hydride, as pressurized gas at
important as it appears to be, has not yet been implemented in a large
200 atm, and as liquid in a proper cryogenic dewar. Prototype cars
scale. The reason is obviously not the lack of technology. For even
powered by hydrogen were unveiled in 1989 by Mercedes-Benz using
though technical questions in several areas need to be answered, there
a metal hydride storage with a 70 miles range and by BMW using a
exists plenty of practical technology waiting for implementation. It
liquid storage with a 135 miles range. Another hydrogen storage
can be argued then that the major roadblock is unfavorable econom-
possibility for automotive applications is ammonia, in which case the
ics. However, one can easily find situations, such as utility load
energy density per volume is comparable to that of gasoline. How-
leveling, where storage is more economical than present policies. But
ever, a temperature of 700-800 is required to decompose ammonia
even if energy storage technologies are presently more expensive or
in order to obtain the hydrogen component for combustion.
less convenient than the business-as-usual alternatives, there is evi-
The availability of hydrogen as an automotive fuel makes feasible
dence indicating that the public may support the necessary changes in
the replacement of the internal combustion engine by fuel cells. In this
the interest of protecting the environment. Thus, for example, people
case the fuel cells generate electricity to power electric motors for a
will be willing to fill their car tanks twice as frequently if the reward
far more efficient utilization of energy compared to the internal
is a cleaner environment. This implies, however, that clear messages
combustion engine. We may also point out the hydrogen from the
have to be sent to the public from the government and other policy-
reformation of natural gas, even though a temporary solution, can
making entities saying that such changes are needed.
NEWS
Forum Elections
"For his incisive technical analysis of national security issues that has
been vital for informing the public policy debate, especially with
regard to basing modes for ballistic missiles, survivability of subma-
We'll have to wait until the July issue to print the results of the
rines, effects of nuclear war, effectiveness of tactical ballistic mis-
recent Forum election. We usually run the results in April, but this
siles, and implications of accidental launch protection systems."
year our new election procedure, directly mailing the ballots rather
1990 Forum Award for promoting public understanding of the
than printing them in the January Physics and Society, was embarrass-
relation of physics to society. To Richard Wilson of Harvard Univer-
ingly successful. It produced many more responses than usual,
sity: "For his outstanding research and promotion of public under-
perhaps ten times as many. It's a major effort to open the ballots and
standing on a broad spectrum of issues dealing with physics, the
count them, and the count won't be finished until after this issue goes
environment, and public health, including his work in reactor safety,
to press. Sorry
estimation of hazards posed by environmental pollution, and pioneer-
ing use of comparative risk analysis."
1990 Szilard and Forum Awards
Newly Elected Forum-Sponsored Fellows of the
Both awards will be presented at the 1990 APS spring meeting, 16-
APS
19 April in Washington, DC.
1990 Leo Szilard Award for physics in the public interest: To
Theodore A. Postol of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology:
Caroline Littlejohn Herzenberg: "For leadership and advocacy
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
14
with respect to women's participation in physics, and for contribu-
Macvicar, MIT.
tions toward assessment of issues relating to space weaponry, and for
"Models for scientist involvement in pre-college education,' Wil-
research accomplishments in Mossbauer spectrometry."
liam Aldrich, National Science Teachers Association.
Allan R. Hoffman: "For his many and creative contributions to
"Science education: ahigh-school educator's view,' Clara' Tolbert,
analyzing and facilitating legislation and National Research Council
Vice Principal, Central High School, Philadelphia.
studies on energy, science advice, and science and public policy."
"AIP activities in science education," Brian Schwarz, AIP.
Henry C. Kelly: "For his outstanding contributions to arms
control, solar energy, and energy and economic policy."
Missile Technologies and Nuclear Arms Control. Frank von
Richard A. Meserve: "For his contributions at the interface of
Hippel, presiding.
physics and society, especially for his report on safety problems of
"Arms control and breakout from nuclear arms treaties," Michael
nuclear reactors at government laboratories."
I. Sobel, Brooklyn College.
Rustum Roy: "As director of the Penn State Science Technology
"A flight-test ban and new reentry vehicle technologies," Lisbeth
and Society Program, and in many other ways, he has considerably
Gronlund, Program for Defense and Arms Control Studies, MIT.
improved our understanding of the interaction between science,
"Depressed trajectories, short time-of-flight, low-burnout and
technology, and society."
fast-burn boosters," Bob Dietz, retired engineer, Lockheed Mis-
Carl Edward Sagan: "For his sustained and exceptional contribu-
sile Division.
tions to the public understanding of science and societal impacts of
"Deterrence through a comprehensive ballistic missile flight-test
technology."
ban," Robert Sherman, defense specialist for Congressmen Les
AuCoin and Tom Downey.
Forum Sessions at the Anaheim Meeting
Promote Science and Society Awareness!
One Forum session was presented at the Anaheim meeting, held 12-
Inform Others About the Forum
16 March 1990:
International Safeguards on Pu/HEU. David Hafemeister, Cali-
Distribute Physics and Society to others, either by loaning or
fornia Polytechnical State University, presiding.
photocopying your copy, or by writing to the editor (address on page
"Restricting production of fissionable materials: an historical
2) and requesting copies. Ask your library to subscribe (it's free to
libraries), and to keep it permanently.
overview," John M. Taylor, Sandia National Laboratory.
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Urge others to join the Forum. Physics and Society is sent free to
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To join, APS members need only request Forum membership on the
E. Lovett, Lovett Associates.
annual APS membership renewal notice, by listing "Forum" on the
front side of the notice as described under "renewal instructions."
"Limiting and reducing inventories of fissionable material," Charles
Hebel, Xerox Corporation.
Alternatively, APS members can join the Forum by filling out the
statement of intent, below, and mailing it either to the editor or directly
to the APS.
Forum Sessions at the Washington DC Meeting
To Receive Physics and Society
The spring meeting, being held in Washington DC during 16-19
April this year, is traditionally the big meeting of the year for the
Forum. In Washington, we'll have the Forum Awards and lectures,
Physics and Society, the quarterly of the Forum on Physics and
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Physics libraries may receive Physics and Society free upon
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If you are an APS member it is easy to join the Forum and receive
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Health Effects of Non-Ionizing Radiation. Lynn Jelinski, presid-
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ADDRESS
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PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
15
COMMENT
Strategic Instability is a Bad Buy
weapon. Moving our 50 MXs (500 warheads) from their present silos
to their planned rail garrisons will make them more, not less, vulner-
Strategic nuclear weapons issues seem almost passe' in these days
able in the only scenario that matters: an escalating crisis in which the
U.S. does not have or does not take the 4 hour lead time needed to
of elections in Eastern Europe, arms control breakthroughs, withering
hawk and doves, and New York Times announcements of the end of
disperse the MXs. With a 4 hour lead time, we can mobilize plenty
the cold war. But unfortunately, nuclear arsenals still threaten the
of additional deterrent power without the MX. Cancellation would
globe, new first-strike nuclear weapons still threaten superpower
save over $2 billion per year for several years. The best thing to do
stability, and a new $295 billion Defense budget still threatens our
with our present MXs is trade them away, e.g. for Soviet SS-24s or SS-
wallets. So continued analysis is not yet out of line, in fact may be
18s (but not for the ground-mobile SS-25s, which are stabilizing).
especially in line now when things are changing so rapidly that
SDI testing and deployment plans. Space-based defense cannot
anything seems possible.
prevent total destruction in a determined Soviet attack. SDI would do
This essay's thesis is that the United States can actually buy more
us more harm than good by increasing Soviet perceptions of a U.S.
military security by spending less money on several strategic weap-
first-strike threat, because even a partially effective SDI might be of
ons programs, and that this is true even when "security" is defined in
real benefit in defeating a weakened Soviet retaliatory strike. Thus
the narrow, purely military, cold war sense. Looking only at the
SDI, to the extent that it works, will be destabilizing. Cutting it back
strategic part (12%) of the defense budget, we could save some $13
to pure research, as it was before then-President Reagan's "Star Wars"
billion per year by canceling or reducing several programs that are not
speech, would save some $3 billion per year.
only unnecessary but are in fact harmful to national security.
Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missile. Although the
Nuclear weapons, especially strategic ones, are fundamentally
nearly-invulnerable SLBMs are usually regarded as stabilizing, Tri-
different from other weapons. Although most people, and even most
dent II is different. Because it can destroy Soviet silos, it is destabil-
defense analysts, give lip service to this notion, defense budgets
izing. We have plenty of stable SLBMs now, and have no need for the
seldom embody it. Military security, understood in the conventional
Trident II. Cancellation would save $2 billion per year.
sense of preventing or defeating armed attack on the nation or on its
B-2 bomber. We have plenty of bombers. The B-2 adds no
interests, is generally increased by possession of greater numbers of
deterrent value to our existing B-52 and B-1 bomber forces. The
weapons. So arguments over non-nuclear military spending are
purely deterrent mission is performed better (because more surely)
with cruise missiles launched from outside the Soviet Union than with
generally over priorities: is it better to buy this weapon system, or to
put the money someplace else? Nuclear weapons are different. Their
B-2s overflying the Soviet Union. There is only one task the B-2 can
purpose is to deter war, not to fight one. In a sense, they are not
perform that existing bombers cannot: finding and destroying Soviet
military weapons at all, for their actual use would defeat their purpose.
mobile missiles (although inefficiently). This task is destabilizing
So more may not be better. Sometimes more is worse.
and thus harmful to U.S. security. Cancellation of this expensive
To think about deterrence, we must ask how nuclear war could
program would save us over $6 billion per year.
occur. Even under the most malign assumptions about Soviet (or
Cold war fears have kept these programs alive for years, even
U.S.) motives, nobody expects nuclear attack to occur on purpose, i.e.
decades (nearly 20 years for MX). This is an auspicious year to finally
"out of the blue," like Pearl Harbor: neither side would risk it.
defeat them, because of U.S. budget pressures and because the
Scenarios involving accidents and mad generals are a little more
Gorbachev era makes a less paranoid perspective possible.
plausible. But most plausible by far is the pre-emptive nuclear strike
You might have noticed that the ground-mobile Midgetman mis-
in the midst of a crisis, out of fear of loss of control and of attack
sile is one large strategic program that is not on my list. Midgetman
(stimulated by the same fears) by the other side. Any rational
falls into a different category, because its deployment would have a
deterrence policy must be directed at preventing this scenario.
stabilizing effect on our currently unstable ICBM force. This is true
A pre-emptive strike would aim mainly at the other side's strategic
even though the Midgetman has the unfortunate ability to destroy
nuclear weapons. So superpower "A" would be more likely to pre-
Soviet missile silos with high probability. Current U.S. ICBMs have
empt in a crisis if either "B's" nuclear weapons are vulnerable to
this first-strike (the approved euphemism is "counterforce") ability,
attack by A (because then A might reduce its own damage or even
but they are also vulnerable. Midgetman, deployed in the "random
"win the war" by attacking B), or if A's weapons are vulnerable to B
mobile" configuration over large tracts of land in the southwest,
(because then an attack by B seems plausible to A-the "use them or
would be essentially invulnerable. The only question about Midget-
man is whether its advantages are worth the money. If we decide not
lose them" syndrome).
It follows that, from a purely military point of view, strategic
to buy Midgetman or some other invulnerable ICBM scheme (there
is at least one other, known as "multiple silos" or "carry hard"), then
nuclear weapons should be invulnerable and should not threaten the
weapons of the other superpower. Weapons that don't satisfy these
we should dismantle our ICBMs and go to a "diad" of bombers and
submarines.
criteria might be worse than useless, for they might encourage the
Beyond the increased military security, we obviously increase
crisis pre-emption that nuclear weapons should be primarily designed
overall national security by saving money on these harmful big-
to discourage.
And it would be ridiculous, wouldn't it, to spend money on
budget programs. For a rough estimate of this effect, let's imagine
dividing the saved $13 billion per year among the 50 states. Then each
weapons that are worse than useless?
There are at least four big-bucks programs that our country would
state gets $260 million per year. For comparison, the Governor of my
be militarily better off without even if they were free, because the
own state of Arkansas recently proposed an excellent and comprehen-
sive new education package, but the legislature defeated it on cost
weapons are either vulnerable, or they make Soviet weapons vulner-
grounds. The cost of this supposedly exorbitant program was $200
able:
Rail-based MX Its vulnerability, combined with its threatening
million per year.
Art Hobson
lethality against Soviet make this the world's most destabilizing
PHYSICS AND SOCIETY, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 1990
16