Memorandum, State Department Summary of Telegrams

of OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE DECLASSIFIED 12065, Sec. 3-402 WASHINGTON 1982 State DEB Dept. E.O. Guidelines, NLT, Date March q-wer 6, August 13, 1952 By TOP SECRET SECURITY INFORMATION SUMMARY OF TELEGRAMS IRAN: Embassy Tehran has submitted a new evaluation of the situation in Iran as of the moment. It points out that a striking feature of recent developments has been the sharpening of dissensions among the National Front leaders and their allies. The schism which is most threatening to the National Front movement at present is that between Mosadeq and Kashani, the religious leader who has exerted much behind-the-scene power all during Mosadeq's tenure of office. Minister of Court Ala maintains that the Shah and Mosadeq are now cooperating in an endeavor to frustrate Kashani's aggressive ambitions. If the rift is further deepened, says our Embassy, Mosadeq and Kashani would try to gain the support of as many political groups as possible for themselves, and thus the political importance of the Shah, the Army, and the Tudeh (Communist) Party might increase. The two most important extremist groups of the Nationalist movement, the one under Kashani's aegis and the Iran Party, are believed to be willing to make a working alliance with the Tudeh if it is expedient to do so. In order to remain in power, Mosadeq might have to choose between an alliance with the Shah and the Army or closer cooperation with the Iran Party and its extremist leaders. If Kashani should decide to withdraw his support from Mosadeq, Mosadeq might find himself in a minority position in the streets, where Kashani and the Tudeh are in control. The Embassy believes, however, that regardless of a possible split in the Nationalist movement, political extremism and xenophobia are factors that must be reckoned with for the indefinite future in any Iranian government. It is hardly likely that any Iranian government in the foreseeable future could agree to discuss an oil settlement on terms any more conciliatory to British interests than those proposed by the Department, and time passing without a con- ciliatory and affirmative approach from the West will only strengthen the hands of the extremists. THE SAAR: Embassy Paris has suggested the following possible US-UK moves in an effort to overcome the expected impasse in French-German negotiations over the Saar which are taking place in Paris between Schuman and Hallstein: 1) The French appear to be aware that no agreement on the Saar can be reached TOP SECRET SECURITY INFORMATION