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Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (6)
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Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (6)
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Records of the White House Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff (Reagan Administration)
Michael Deaver's Political Files
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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Digital Library Collections
This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections.
Collection: Deaver, Michael: Files
Folder Title: Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (6)
Box: 66
To see more digitized collections
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library
To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit:
https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection
Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected]
Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing
National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/
Decision/Making/Information ®
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 7, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Perceptions of the President
Overall, the perceptions of President Ronald Reagan are slightly
more negative now than in May 1983, with the most significant
changes occurring in two important areas: caring about the needs
of the elderly and poor and being trustworthy.
Would you say this is an ... excellent, good, only fair,
or poor description of Reagan?
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
Cares about the needs of the
elderly and poor
31%
68%
Effective in getting things done
47
51-
Really knows what he is doing
41
58
Has the strong leadership qualities
this country needs
49
50
Is trustworthy
53
44
Shows too much business favoritism
49
45
Will start an unnecessary war
29
66
Cares
While there has been a net 10% erosion since May 1983 in the per-
ception of Reagan as one who cares about the needs of the elderly
Decision/Making/Information
Perceptions of the President
July 7, 1983
Page Two
and poor, the latest results are similar to the March and April
1983 figures.
Among the key constituencies, women are the most critical of Reagan
on this point, and their attitudes have been the most consistent
over time. Blue-collar workers rate Reagan more harshly on this
characteristic than they did in May but slightly better than they
did in March and April. A positive trend has developed among
senior citizens, with an 8% gain (from 37% to 45%) in the number of
respondents evaluating this description as excellent or good.
Catholics also tend to rate Reagan more positively in this area now
than earlier.
Trustworthy
The nine percent (9%) aggregate erosion since May 1983 in President
Reagan's image as a trustworthy individual sets him back to the
March and April 1983 level. This drop occurs among most voter
subgroups -- the exception being senior citizens where his positive
rating has improved 9 percentage points.
Among Reagan's strongest supporters -- base Republicans, men, and
small businessmen -- the positive evaluations softened, some moving
from the "excellent" to "good" category.
Significant increases in negative ratings are found among women,
residents of the Farm Belt States, and those from the Pacific
States. The erosion in Reagan's home region is a substantial 20
percentage points.
The recent media issue known as "Debategate" may have influenced
the perceptions of Reagan as trustworthy. Comparing the daily
aggregate results, we find a net 10 percentage point erosion from
June 25th to June 26th. Attitudes tend to balance out on June
27th. This corresponds closely to the media attention given the
issue.
Effective
The perceptions of Reagan as "effective in getting things done" has
declined a net 4 percentage points over the month, with a majority
(51%) of the respondents now saying this phrase is an only fair or
poor description of Reagan. Analysis of key constituencies reveals
the most significant negative change occurring among blue-collar
workers. On the other hand, senior citizens now rate Reagan more
positively on this characteristic, as they have on each trait
measured.
Decision/Making/Information
Perceptions of the President
July 7, 1983
Page Three
Knows What He Is Doing
Although the aggregate change for the characteristic "really knows
what he is doing" is slight (-2%), the pattern of subgroup erosion
or improvement is consistent with that discussed above. Respon-
dents from the Farm Belt States and blue-collar workers show the
greatest erosion, while the evaluation from senior citizens has
improved dramatically. Other subgroup attitudes have remained
stable.
Strong Leader
No erosion has occured in the aggregate perception of Reagan as a
strong leader, and most subgroup attitudes are consistent with the
results of recent surveys. However, senior citizens show dramatic
improvement in their evaluations of the President on this charac-
teristic. In May 1983, by a 57% to 46% margin, senior citizens
thought this was an only fair or poor description of Reagan. In
June 1983 those figures reversed, and by a 54% to 42% margin senior
citizens say this is an excellent or good description of Reagan.
Respondents from the Farm Belt States and blue-collar workers now
give Reagan slightly lower ratings for strong leadership than they
did in the May survey.
Favors Business
In aggregate, there is currently a stronger feeling than in May
that Reagan shows too much business favoritism (a net 4% increase).
The most significant change has taken place among small
businessmen, with a majority (52%) of these voters now saying that
this is an excellent or good description of the President. Other
subgroup attitudes are consistent with the May 1983 results.
Start an Unnecessary War
There is also more concern now than in May 1983 that Reagan is a
man who will start an unnecessary war (a net 4% increase). Senior
citizens, however, move strongly against the aggregate trend and
are much less critical than most voters about Reagan in this area.
Respondents from the Farm Belt States, previously a subgroup quite
supportive of Reagan, now are among those most critical of the
President on this dimension. As with all other character traits
examined, the erosion of Reagan's image is greatest among these
Farm Belt respondents.
Decision/Making/Information
Perceptions of the President
July 7, 1983
Page Four
Although just three in ten respondents feel Reagan is a man who
will start an unnecessary war, over four in ten respondents say
that the President's policies during the past year have done more
to increase the risk of war than to insure peace.
On balance, do you think that President Reagan's policies
and actions during the past year have done more to
promote peace or done more to increase the risk of war?
More to promote peace
47%
More to increase the risk of war
44
No opinion
9
Most key constituencies are evenly divided on the issue. Small
businessmen, blue-collar workers, senior citizens, Catholics,
independents/leaners, and white Baptists tend to feel Reagan's
actions have done more to promote peace.
Residents from the Farm Belt States and women tend to say the
President's actions have increased the risk of war.
By a 72% to 18% margin, base Republicans believe that Reagan's
policies have done more to promote peace.
Men are much more likely than women to feel that Reagan's policies
will promote peace. Age, education and marital status also factor
into these attitude differences. By significant margins, younger
women, those with between one and eleven years of formal education,
and non-married women feel that Reagan's policies will increase the
risk of war. Older women, those with more education and married
women tend to be divided more evenly in their attitudes, yet still
less favorable point of view. The attitudes of women who work
outside the home are similar to those with no outside employment --
both tend to view Reagan's policies as increasing the risks of war.
As might be expected, military veterans are more positive than
non-veterans in evaluating the effect Reagan's policies and actions
might have on world peace. By a 58% to 35% margin, veterans see
Reagan's actions as peace promoting. Non-veterans are divided
evenly, 45% to 46%.
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan's Characteristics -- Excellent/Good
"Would you say that this is an
excellent,
good,
only
fair,
or
poor
description of Reagan?"
May
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
Jan
12-17
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
7-10
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1983
Cares about the needs of the
elderly and poor
47
*
40
37
33
32
Will start an unnecessary war
19
27
25
23
23
23
Effective in getting things done
78
71
69
51
52
45
Really knows what he is doing
*
*
*
45
43
40
Has the strong leadership qualities
this country needs
77
68
*
54
51
48
Is trustworthy
*
*
65
*
61
56
Shows too much business favoritism
*
*
*
*
*
*
Dangerous
*
*
*
*
*
*
Knowledgeable
*
*
*
*
*
*
Is delivering on what he promised
*
*
*
*
*
*
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Cares about the needs of the
elderly and poor
33
30
30
30
36
31
Will start an unnecessary war
20
22
24
23
27
29
Effective in getting things done
39
44
46
47
49
47
Really knows what he is doing
37
37
38
*
42
41
Has the strong leadership qualities
this country needs
45
45
47
49
48
49
Is trustworthy
54
53
54
*
57
53
Shows too much business favoritism
*
47
49
*
47
49
Dangerous
*
*
22
*
22
*
Knowledgeable
*
*
*
*
57
*
Is delivering on what he promised
*
*
*
*
39
*
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan's Characteristics -- Only Fair/Poor
"Would you say that this is an
excellent,
good,
only
fair,
or
poor
description of Reagan?"
May
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
Jan
12-17
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
7-10
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1983
Cares about the needs of the
elderly and poor
52
*
59
62
65
66
Will start an unnecessary war
70
70
73
72
70
73
Effective in getting things done
20
28
30
47
46
53
Really knows what he is doing
*
*
*
53
54
59
Has the strong leadership qualities
this country needs
21
23
*
44
47
51
Is trustworthy
20
*
33
*
35
41
Shows too much business favoritism
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Dangerous
Knowledgeable
*
*
*
*
*
*
Is delivery on what he promised
*
*
*
*
*
*
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Cares about the needs of the
elderly and poor
67
69
69
69
63
68
Will start an unnecessary war
76
72
73
73
68
66
Effective in getting things done
59
55
53
52
49
51
Really knows what he is doing
60
61
60
*
57
58
Has the strong leadership qualities
this country needs
53
54
52
49
50
50
Is trustworthy
41
44
44
*
39
44
Shows too much business favoritism
*
47
47
*
47
45
*
*
75
*
75
*
Dangerous
Knowledgeable
*
*
*
*
41
*
Is delivery on what he promised
*
*
*
*
60
*
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan's Characteristics
"Would you say that this is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/Good
Only Fair/Poor
May
Jun
% Imprvmnt
May
Jun
% Imprvmnt
Net
27-30
25-27
or (Erosion)
27-30
25-27
or (Erosion)
Change
Positive
Characteristics
Cares about the
needs of the
36
31
(5)
63
68
(5)
(10)
elderly and poor
Effective in
getting things
done
49
47
(2)
49
51
(2)
(4)
Really knows what
he is doing
42
41
(1)
57
58
(1)
(2)
Has the strong
leadership
48
49
1
50
50
0
1
qualities this
country needs
Is trustworthy
57
53
(4)
39
44
(5)
(9)
Negative
Characteristics
Shows too
much business
47
49
(2)
47
45
(2)
(4)
favoritism
Will start an
unnecessary war
27
29
(2)
68
66
(2)
(4)
Dangerous
22
-
-
75
-
-
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Cares About the Needs of the Elderly and Poor
"Would you say this is an excellent ... good ... only fair ... or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
32
68
1
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
57
41
2
Small Business
34
69
1
Farm Belt states
29
70
1
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
29
71
0
Senior citizens
45
55
0
Women
29
70
1
Catholics
29
65
1
Independents/Leaners
30
69
1
White Baptists
30
69
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Effective in Getting Things Done
"Would you say this is an excellent
...
good
...
only fair
...
or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
48
51
2
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
74
26
0
Small Business
51
47
2
Farm Belt states
54
44
2
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
46
53
1
Senior citizens
48
50
2
Women
40
58
2
Catholics
44
53
2
Independents/Leaners
46
51
2
White Baptists
53
46
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Really Knows What He is Doing
"Would you say this is an excellent
...
good
...
only fair
...
or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
42
58
0
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
71
27
2
Small Business
44
54
2
Farm Belt states
33
63
4
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
41
59
1
Senior citizens
49
50
1
Women
37
63
0
Catholics
41
58
1
Independents/Leaners
38
60
2
White Baptists
42
57
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Has the Strong Leadership Qualities
This Country Needs
"Would you say this is an excellent ... good ... only fair ... or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
49
50
1
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
75
25
1
Small Business
52
47
1
Farm Belt states
42
54
4
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
46
54
0
Senior citizens
54
42
4
Women
42
57
1
Catholics
45
55
0
Independents/Leaners
47
51
2
White Baptists
52
47
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Trustworthy
"Would you say this is an excellent
...
good
...
only fair
...
or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
53
44
3
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
81
17
3
Small Business
53
45
2
Farm Belt states
43
50
4
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
52
46
2
Senior citizens
62
34
4
Women
50
47
3
Catholics
51
46
3
Independents/Leaners
53
44
3
White Baptists
58
40
2
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Shows Too Much Business Favoritism
"Would you say this is an excellent
...
good
...
only fair
...
or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
49
46
5
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
41
53
6
Small Business
52
44
4
Farm Belt states
43
52
5
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
47
46
7
Senior citizens
43
49
8
Women
47
45
8
Catholics
52
44
4
Independents/Leaners
51
43
6
White Baptists
45
51
4
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making Information
Will Start an Unnecessary War
"Would you say this is an excellent
...
good
...
only fair
...
or poor
description of Reagan?"
Excellent/
Only Fair/
Good
Poor
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
29
66
5
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
17
78
5
Small Business
30
65
5
Farm Belt states
30
64
6
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
29
66
5
Senior citizens
19
71
10
Women
30
63
6
Catholics
33
62
5
Independents/Leaners
30
64
6
White Baptists
26
67
7
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 7, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Education
Since the fall of 1979, we have known that education could become a
major and pivotal issue in the 80's. In the last few months
President Reagan has made education an issue, as indicated by its
rise from non-issue status in January (or 0%) to 2% in June of the
"number one national issue" response. It will be an issue of
interest well through 1984.
Public Education Today
When asked if the education most children are getting today in
public schools is ... better about the same or is worse
than the education the respondent received, 25% replied better, 12%
replied about the same, and a whopping 61% replied "worse."
Blacks rate current education as being better (38%) and postgrad-
uates rate it the lowest (15%). All demographic subgroups are
unhappy with the current quality of education.
Reagan Job Rating
Turning specifically to the issue of the President's job rating on
education, 52% of the populace approve of Reagan's education
policies, -- a slight increase of 3 percentage points over May.
Although the overall rating increased with specific subgroups such
as base Republicans, small business owners and women reflecting the
greatest increases, three significant decreases in the approval
rating should be noted: Hispanics (from 56% to 46%), white
Baptists (from 64% to 56%) and those living in the Farm Belt States
(from 49% to 43%).
Decision/Making/Information
Education
July 7, 1983
Page Two
Note that while non-married women's rating fell from 56% to 49%
this ranking places them at an almost even level with non-married
men.
Back to Basics
When presented with a hypothetical situation involving no increases
in federal spending and "back to basics" in education (the Reagan
position) versus sharp increases in federal spending (the Democrats
solution), 61% of those polled favored "back to basics."
All of our key constituencies favor tougher basic courses and merit
pay for teachers, rather than increasing federal spending:
Increased
Back to Basics
Federal Spending
Base Republicans
73%
24%
Small business owners
61
36
Farm Belt States
55
46
Blue-collar workers
59
39
Hispanics
51
48
Senior citizens
72
22
Women
58
38
Catholics
61
37
Independents/Leaners
67
30
White Baptists
60
36
Those groups that favor increased federal spending are blacks (66%)
and 18 to 24 olds (51%). All other voter groups favor the "back to
basics" approach.
Decision Making Information
Education: Yours vs. Children Today
"In general, do you think the education most children are getting today in
public schools is ... better ... about the same ... or is worse than the
education you received?"
D/M/I
CBS News
June 25-27, 1983 June 26-29, 1978
(%)
(%)
Better*
26
38
About the same
12
17
Worse
62
45
*2% "no opinion" was distributed to compare to CBS News poll.
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making Information
Public Education Today
"In general, do you think the education most children are getting today in
public schools is ... better ... about the same ... or is worse than the
education you received?"
About
No
Better
The Same
Worse
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
25
12
61
2
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
28
10
62
0
Small business
26
16
57
1
Farm Belt states
24
14
60
2
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
31
13
55
1
Senior citizens
24
8
67
1
Women
24
11
63
1
Catholics
24
10
63
3
Independents/Leaners
24
14
60
2
White Baptists
26
8
64
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Education
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
May Jun
27-30 25-27
1983 1983
Approve
49
52
Disapprove
43
41
No opinion
8
7
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Education
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strng
Smwht
Smwht
Strng
No
Apprv
Apprv
Disap
Disap
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
21
31
18
23
7
Aggregate
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
33
39
12
9
7
Small business
23
31
16
22
8
29
7
Farm Belt states
7
36
21
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
18
33
21
21
8
Senior citizens
27
22
18
25
7
Women
20
30
20
25
6
Catholics
16
33
18
27
6
Independents/Leaners
18
31
19
23
9
White Baptists
24
32
17
20
7
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Education: Back to Basics
"Recently there has been some discussion about education in America. I'd like
to read you the opinions of an imaginary Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones about
education. Please tell me whether your own opinion about the education issue
is
just like Smith
somewhat like Smith
somewhat like Jones
or
just like Jones.
Mr. Smith believes that, in order to improve the quality of education in
American, the federal government needs to invest substantial amounts of
federal aid into education and research.
Mr. Jones says that we don't need to spend large amounts of money to
improve education. He thinks that instead of more federal money, we need
to require students to take tougher basic courses and give merit pay to
attract and reward outstanding teachers.
Is your opinion
Just
Somewhat
Somewhat
Just
Like
Like
Like
Like
No
Smith
Smith
Jones
Jones
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
14
22
31
30
4
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
8
16
33
40
3
Small business
14
22
29
32
3
Farm Belt states
24
22
24
31
0
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
16
23
32
27
2
Hispanics
20
28
17
34
0
Senior citizens
7
15
28
44
7
Women
15
23
31
27
4
Catholics
11
26
28
33
2
Independents/Leaners
10
20
32
25
4
White Baptists
15
21
37
23
3
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 7, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Political Thermometers
Ronald Reagan
With the exception of the May 1983 survey, Reagan's thermometer
rating has remained fairly stable since January 1983. The May
reading showed a 6-point improvement from April (54 to 60), but the
rating has settled again to 55. This drop has been consistent
among most voter subgroups with the exception of senior citizens
who still give Reagan 60 points on the 0-to-100 scale.
Walter Mondale
Mondale's thermometer rating also declined between the May and June
1983 surveys, dropping from 54 to 51. The negative change is
consistent among all voter subgroups. Looking at the key
constituencies, Mondale receives higher ratings than Reagan from
Catholics (57 and 52 respectively) and women (53 and 50
respectively). Reagan has slightly better ratings than Mondale
among respondents from the Farm Belt States (53 and 51), and
independents/leaners (54 and 51). Small businessmen, blue-collar
workers, senior citizens, and white Baptists rate Reagan
considerably better than Mondale.
John Glenn
Glenn's thermometer rating (60) has remained stable since January
1983. Although most subgroup ratings are unchanged, there is some
erosion among senior citizens and residents of the Farm Belt
States. Glenn still does slightly better than Reagan in the Farm
Belt States (56 to 53 respectively) and is tied with the President
among senior citizens. Glenn's scores are also better than
Reagan's among small businessmen, blue-collar workers, women,
Catholics, independents/leaners, and white Baptists.
REAGAN THERMOMETER
Rating
100
90
80
70
63
60
55
53
54
50
40
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
1
3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
1
3
4
5
6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Thermometer Ratings -- White House and Cabinet People
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
30-3
12-17
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
Ronald Reagan
72
77
64
63
58
57
56
66
*
*
*
George Bush
54
Bill Brock
*
55
*
*
*
*
James Watt
*
53
39
*
40
*
*
A1 Haig
59
*
*
*
*
*
61
*
*
*
*
Caspar Weinberger
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
*
Ronald Reagan
55
54
54
54
60
George Bush
*
*
*
55
*
57
*
*
*
*
*
*
Bill Brock
James Watt
*
*
35
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
A1 Haig
*
*
Caspar Weinberger
*
50
*
*
*
*
*
42
*
*
Raymon Donovan
*
*
*
49
*
*
Donald Regan
Jun
25-27
1983
Ronald Reagan
55
George Bush
*
Bill Brock
*
James Watt
*
A1 Haig
*
Caspar Weinberger
*
Raymon Donovan
*
Donald Regan
*
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Thermometer Ratings -- Political and Others
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
9-12
12-17
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Jimmy Carter
50
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
John Glenn
Ted Kennedy
49
56
50
49
51
51
Walter Mondale
51
58
55
52
50
51
*
*
53
*
Tip O'Neill
50
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Paul Volcker
Anne Gorsuch Burford
Menachem Begin
*
*
50
*
49
36
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
*
*
*
*
*
*
Jimmy Carter
John Glenn
61
62
61
59
*
60
*
*
*
*
*
*
Ted Kennedy
Walter Mondale
52
54
54
52
*
54
Tip O'Neill
53
57
58
56
*
*
*
*
51
*
*
*
Paul Volcker
*
*
Anne Gorsuch Burford
*
*
43
*
*
*
*
Gary Hart
50
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Menachem Begin
Jun
25-27
1983
*
Jimmy Carter
John Glenn
60
Ted Kennedy
*
Walter Mondale
51
Tip O'Neill
*
Paul Volcker
*
Anne Gorsuch Burford
*
Gary Hart
*
Menachem Begin
*
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Comparative Thermometer Ratings: Reagan/Mondale/Glenn
Reagan
Mondale
Glenn
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
55
51
60
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
77
45
58
Small business
57
47
59
Farm Belt states
53
51
56
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
56
49
62
Senior citizens
60
52
59
Women
50
53
62
Catholics
52
57
64
Independents/Leaners
54
51
62
White Baptists
59
48
61
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information ®
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Paul Laxalt
Frank J. Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 5, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Congressional Perceptions
Americans' perceptions of Congress have become more negative since
May, falling to the level they were at in January, 1983.
Respondents were asked to rate Congress on the job it is doing:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress
is handling its job? Would that be strongly (approve/
disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/disapprove)?
Approve
35%
Disapprove
56
No opinion
9
Only one-third (35%) of those sampled approve of the way Congress
is handling its job while over one-half (56%) disapprove and 9%
have no opinion.
Highest drops in subgroup approval can be found among:
May
June
27-30
25-27
Change
Farm Belt residents
51%
33%
-18
Small business owners
48
31
-17
Blue-collar workers
48
35
-13
Women
50
35
-15
Catholics
50
36
-14
White Baptists
50
32
-18
Interestingly, public opinion has shifted against Congress since
last month while attitudes towards the two political parties in
Congress have remained virtually the same as they were in May.
Decision/Making/ Information
Congressional Perceptions
July 5, 1983
Page Two
Respondents were asked a hypothetical question concerning the 1984
congressional elections:
Thinking about the 1984 elections for a moment ... if the
1984 elections for U.S. Congress were being held today,
would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the
Democratic candidate in your district? (IF "DON'T KNOW"
OR "REFUSED/N.A.," ASK:) Which way do you lean as of
today -- towards the Republican candidate or the
Democratic candidate?
April
May
June
7-10
27-30
25-27
Republican candidate
34%
38%
37%
Democratic candidate
54
50
49
No opinion
12
12
14
Note that the gap between Republicans and Democrats favored the
Democrats by 20 points. That gap narrowed to 12 points.
A plurality of Americans say that they would vote for the
Democratic candidate (49%) while 37% say they would vote Republican
and 14% have no opinion.
Decision/Making/Information
Congressional Job Rating
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?
Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/
disapprove)?"
Jan 30
Jan
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Feb 3
11-19
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
1981
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
36
38
35
34
42
*
Approve
59
52
*
Disapprove
48
50
60
No opinion
16
12
5
7
6
*
Apr
May
Jun
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
*
Approve
46
35
*
Disapprove
50
56
*
No opinion
4
9
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Congressional Job Rating
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?
Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/
disapprove)?"
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
35
56
9
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
35
57
9
Small Business
31
61
8
Farm Belt states
33
63
4
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
35
55
10
Senior citizens
32
60
8
Women
35
52
13
Catholics
36
53
11
Independents/Leaners
29
64
7
White Baptists
32
64
4
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Congress Vote with Leaners
"Thinking about the 1984 elections for a moment ... if the 1984 elections for
U.S. Congress were being held today, would you be voting for ... the Republican
candidate ... or ... the Democratic candidate in your district?" (IF "DON'T
KNOW" OR "REFUSED/N.A., ASK:) "Which way do you lean as of today -- towards
... the Republican candidate ... or ... the Democratic candidate?"
Republican
Democratic
No
Candidate
Candidate
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
37
49
14
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
89
6
5
Small Business
39
47
14
Farm Belt States
30
53
16
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
35
52
12
Senior citizens
45
47
8
Women
33
52
14
Catholics
35
53
12
Independents/Leaners
36
37
27
White Baptists
43
43
14
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Paul Laxalt
Frank J. Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 5, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Political Climate
Right Direction or Wrong Track?
The gap between positive and negative attitudes towards the country
continues to narrow. However, a majority of Americans still feel
that the country is headed off on the wrong track. Specifically,
respondents were asked;
Generally speaking, would you say that things in this
country are going in the right direction, or have they
pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
Right direction
42%
Wrong track
51
No opinion
7
Currently, four in ten (42%) say right direction, while five in ten
(51%) say wrong track.
In comparison to the summer of 1979, when Jimmy Carter was Presi-
dent, Americans have now vastly improved their attitudes towards
the general climate of the United States. A study done in June,
1979 revealed that only 16% of Americans felt that the country was
headed in the right direction while three-fourths (78%) said that
it was headed off on the wrong track1.
Americans are also more optimistic now about the country than they
were six months ago. The current right direction score shows a 10
1Decision/Making/Information, survey dates June 1-8, 1979, National
Registered Voters, Sample Size = 200.
Decision/Making/Information
Political Climate
July 5, 1983
Page Two
percentage point increase since January when only one-third (33%)
said that the country was moving in the right direction.
Those bearing upscale characteristics on income, education and
profession, as well as Republicans, show both high positive scores
as well as substantial increases in their "right direction" scores
since January.
January
June
7-10
25-27
Change
Upper-income respondents
59%
67%
+ 8
Professionals
44
57
+13
Postgraduates
38
58
+20
Base Republicans
58
69
+11
Their counterparts show lowest "right direction" ratings. However,
their scores have also increased somewhat since January.
January
June
7-10
25-27
Change
Lower-income respondents
22%
30%
+ 8
Some high school or less
21
26
+ 5
Democrats
21
26
+ 5
Liberals
28
34
+ 6
Blacks
11
21
+10
Better Off or Worse Off?
In order to ascertain how Americans perceive the economy effects
not just the country's health but also the effect on Americans
personally, D/M/I asked the following question:
How about you personally? Generally speaking, are you
better or worse off now than you were two years ago
today?
Better off
44%
Worse off
35
About the same
21
Slightly more than two-thirds of those sampled perceive that they
are at least as well off now as two years ago. Four in ten (44%)
say they are better off, while 21% say they are about the same.
One-third (35%) report that they are worse off now.
Decision/Making/ Information
Political Climate
July 5, 1983
Page Three
Although there has been little change since this question was asked
in May, a positive trend has emerged since January. "Better off"
figures have risen 8 percentage points while "worse off" figures
have dropped 3 percentage points.
As is to be expected, upscale respondents and Republicans continue
to report they are better off: postgraduates (66% better off),
upper income (64%), and base Republicans (60%).
Democrats and those with downscale characteristics tend to report
that they are worse off now than two years ago. Drop off in
constituency support since last month can be seen among residents
of Farm Belt States (an 8 percentage point drop to 37% better off),
blue-collar workers (8 percentage point drop to 45%), white
Baptists (5 percentage points to 41%), those owning, managing or
working for a small business (4 percentage points to 47%) and women
(4 percentage points to 40%).
Number One National Problem
Respondents were also asked to name specific problems facing our
country that they consider important. Specifically, respondents
were asked:
What would you say is the single most important problem
facing the United States today, that is, the one that
you, yourself, are most concerned with?
Unemployment
28%
Inflation
8
Economy/Other
17
Domestic/Social
9
Crime/Drugs/Morals
11
Foreign affairs/Defense
19
Government leadership
4
No problems/no opinion
4
Although unemployment continues to be the most frequently mentioned
problem, the number of mentions has dropped from 51% to 28% since
January, a 23 percentage point decrease. Both crime/drugs/morals
and foreign affairs appear to be picking up some of the previous
unemployment mentions.
Crime/drugs/morals has increased from 4% in January to 11% in June,
a 7 percentage point increase. The increase can be broken down as;
morals up from 3% to 5%, drugs up from 2% to 4% and crime at the
same level with 2%.
Decision/Making/Information
Political Climate
July 5, 1983
Page Four
Foreign affairs has jumped from 11% in January to 19% in June, an 8
percentage point increase. Two categories account for most of the
increase: "concern about war and world peace" at 9%, a 4 point in-
crease, and "SALT-II" 4%, a 2 point increase. Concern for "national
defense" dropped from 2% to 1% percent.
Decision/Making/Information
Right Direction/Wrong Track
"Generally speaking, would you say that things in this country are going in the
right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"
Feb
Jun
Sep
Jan
June
Sep
20-22
12-14
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Right direction
42
41
46
50
32
33
Wrong track
51
51
47
45
62
63
No opinion
8
8
7
5
6
4
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Right direction
33
35
40
38
40
42
Wrong track
64
59
56
56
56
52
No opinion
3
7
4
6
4
6
Jun
25-27
1983
Right direction
42
Wrong track
51
No opinion
7
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
RIGHT DIRECTION
or wrong track?
Percent
100
Right
Direction
90
Wrong
Track
80
No
70
67
Opinion
64
59
60
51
50
50
45
40
42
33
34
28
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
5
7
5
5
.3.
0
1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 1 1 3 4 4 5 6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Right Direction/Wrong Track
"Generally speaking, would you say that things in this country are going in the
right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"
Right Direction
Wrong Track
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
42
51
7
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
69
27
5
Small Business
48
45
7
Farm Belt states
49
42
9
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
43
54
3
Senior citizens
37
54
10
Women
36
57
7
Catholics
42
50
9
Independents/Leaners
41
51
7
White Baptists
38
56
6
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Better Off/Worse Off
"How about you personally? Generally speaking, are you better or worse off now
than you were two years ago today?"
Jan
Apr
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
28-31
12-18
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
Better off
43
33
*
36
40
44
34
39
*
Worse off
38
37
33
11
28
*
Same
25
23
23
No opinion
12
*
-
1
0
0
*
May
Jun
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
Better off
46
44
Worse off
32
35
Same
21
21
No opinion
1
0
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Better Off/Worse Off
"How about you personally? Generally speaking, are you better or worse off now
than you were two years ago today?"
Better Off
Worse Off
Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
44
35
21
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
60
18
22
Small Business
47
35
17
Farm Belt states
37
33
31
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
45
34
20
Senior citizens
33
38
29
Women
40
37
23
Catholics
46
33
21
Independents/Leaners
46
30
23
White Baptists
41
37
23
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Number One National Problem
"What would you say is the single most important problem facing the United
States today, that is, the one that you, yourself, are most concerned about?"
Feb
Jul
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
20-22
16-18
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Unemployment
5
6
7
24
28
36
Inflation
38
31
30
17
15
12
Economy/Other
33
26
33
29
19
22
Domestic/Social
7
13
11
5
5
6
Crime/Drugs/Morals
8
10
7
9
10
7
Foreign Affairs/Defense
6
10
8
10
15
9
Government leadership
3
3
3
3
4
4
No problems/No opinion
1
2
1
3
4
4
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Unemployment
51
48
37
34
36
29
Inflation
5
7
8
6
8
7
Economy/Other
18
18
18
19
15
16
Domestic/Social
7
7
7
7
9
9
Crime/Drugs/Morals
4
5
9
9
8
10
Foreign Affairs/Defense
11
7
14
17
16
21
Government leadership
1
4
4
4
4
4
No problems/No opinion
2
3
3
4
4
4
Jun
25-27
1983
Unemployment
28
Inflation
8
Economy/Other
17
Domestic/Social
9
Crime/Drugs/Morals
11
Foreign Affairs/Defense
19
Government leadership
4
No problems/No opinion
4
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
NUMBER ONE PROBLEM
(National)
Percent
60
Unemployment
52
Inflation
50
Other
Economic
40
39
Foreign
Affairs
28
30
24
Other
24
Issues
19
20
17
18
17
14
12
10
9
Decision/Making/Informati
5
8
2
0
1/81
1/82
4/82
7/82
10/82
1/83
3/83
4/83
4/83
5/83
6/83
Date
Decision/Making/Information
Number One National Problem
Unemploy-
Other/
Foreign
Domestic/
No Problem/
ment
Economy
Affairs
Social
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
29
25
19
24
4
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
22
25
21
27
5
Small business
30
26
16
22
6
Farm Belt states
36
25
17
23
0
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
32
24
16
22
7
Senior citizens
18
21
25
33
4
Women
32
25
18
23
3
Catholics
29
25
22
20
4
Independents/Leaners
25
24
22
25
4
White Baptists
28
32
13
20
6
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983