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- इसका हिस्सा Numbered National Security Policy Papers, National Security Study Directives (NSSDs)
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The likelihood of changes in the Soviet system to
ascertain
1.
what realistic expectation one can have of significant changes in
the Soviet system and in Soviet international behavior, and in
which areas; whether such changes are likely to make the country
more or less threatening, and in which areas. The question of
non-evolutionary (violent) collapse of the system from within and
its implications for U.S security will also be considered. 18)
2.
Soviet vulnerabilities and strengths: the sources of
strains and tensions within the Soviet system and the bases for
continuity :
A. Internal
Economic (resources and structures by sector, strengths
and weaknesses of central planning, other constraints on
Soviet economic growth, trends in industrial and agricultural
productivity, degree of dependence on foreign trade, the
financial outlook, the burden of military expenditures,
consumer passivity and dissatisfaction).
--
Political (party, police and society; social malaise
and revolutionary consciousness; the self-assertion of the
working class; dissident movements among Russians and ethnic
minorities; the succession problem)
.
--
Social (demographic trends; urban and rural society;
youth; deviance; the religious factor)
B. External
--
Imperial challenges : increasing burdens of projecting
a global presence; allies and proxies; strains in Eastern
Europe, including economic relations with CEMA.
--
Communist movements: centrifugal tendencies in the
international Communist movement; heresies and deviations.
--
International challenges: the United States, Western
Europe, Japan, China, the Third World. LOT
3.
The Balance of Internal Forces Making for Continuity or
Change : to analyze the Soviet ruling elite in terms of elements
favoring the status quo and those favoring change in either a
more liberal or a more conservative direction, and to determine
what actions by foreign powers assist each of these competing
groups. ST
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