Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
120360139
label
Econ E - Energy Working Group – Minutes
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
120360139
contentType
document
title
Econ E - Energy Working Group – Minutes
citationUrl
collections
Records of the Council on Environmental Quality (Clinton Administration)
Kathleen McGinty's Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
120360139
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
otherTitles
42-t-7432005-20120769F-Seg2-012-014-2018
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
42662c8d79bc29e5
ocrText
FOIA Number: 2012-0769-F
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Council on Environmental Quality
Series/Staff Member:
Kathleen (Katie) McGinty
Subseries:
OA/ID Number:
2892
FolderID:
Folder Title:
Econ E - Energy Working Group - Minutes
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
S
61
5
11
2
January 30, 1993
FAX COVER SHEET
TO: OMB [Randy Lyon, Kathy Peroff, Gary Bennenthum, Jim Mietus]
Treasury [John Parcell, James Nunns, Sam Sessions, Norm
Richter]
CEA [Ray Squitieri]
DOE Richard Rosenzweig]
EPA Dick Morgenstern, Chuck Fox]
NEC [Heather Ross, Bo Cutter]
FROM: Katie McGinty
PAGE: 1 of x 4
*Please distribute to other proticipants
from your organization iza
Politics of BTU and Ad Valorem Energy Taxes
January 30, 1993
This memo gives some general observations on the politics of
three types of energy taxes: BTU taxes, ad valorem energy taxes at
the primary level (minemouth, wellhead, etc.), and ad valorem
energy taxes at the point of delivery. The focus is on how these
taxes affect coal, oil, and gas producers. These effects will
likely determine the politics of the debate over energy taxes in
Congress and among the States.
One important distinction to keep in mind concerns the price
increases such taxes will cause. The price of coal is less than
1/3 the price of oil in dollars per BTU, with natural gas in
between. By definition, a BTU tax causes equal tax increases for
the 3 fuels measured in dollars per BTU. However, the percentage
price increases for the 3 fuels will vary significantly.
Conversely, an ad valorem tax causes an equal tax increases
measured in percentage terms. However, the price increases in
dollars per BTU will vary significantly. Proponents of various
fuels will cite "unfair" price increases and will focus on dollar
increases or percentage increases as it suits their purposes.
EFFECT ON COAL PRODUCERS
A BTU tax hits coal the heaviest of the 3 taxes in percentage
terms. A BTU tax raising $20 billion might raise delivered coal
prices by 17%, compared to increases of 3% and 7% for oil and gas
respectively. Is this sense, a BTU is similar to, but not as
harsh as a carbon tax. Some environmentalists realize this
connection and view a BTU tax as a reasonable second choice to a
carbon tax.
Coal producers would prefer ad valorem taxes to BTU taxes.
Western coal producers would prefer ad valorem at the minemouth
because their minemouth prices are very low, hence the tax would
be low. Their delivered coal prices are much higher because of
long-haul, high transportation costs. Eastern coal producers
would take the opposite view. They would support ad valorem at
point of delivery in order preserve the existing competitive
relationships between Western and Eastern coal.
The DRI economic model predicts that ad valorem at the
primary level can result in an increase in coal use, a negative
from the environmental perspective. For this reason,
environmentalists would strongly oppose a primary level ad valorem
tax.
EFFECT ON OIL PRODUCERS
- 2 -
Oil producers face a smaller percentage increase in price
under a BTU tax than either natural gas or coal producers. They
therefore prefer a BTU tax to either of the ad valorem tax
options. Consumers in regions such as the Northeast who are most
dependent on oil and least dependent on coal would be most
supportive of a BTU tax, while consumers in Midwestern states, who
depend primarily on coal, would oppose the BTU tax option.
EFFECT ON NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS
Natural gas producers are most concerned with competing with
oil in the fuel market, and would consider themselves to be better
off under an ad valorem than a BTU tax. This is because an ad
valorem tax would lead to a smaller increase in the price of
natural gas than would a BTU tax. However, because gas is so much
cheaper than oil on a BTU basis, an equal-cents-per-BTU tax will
have little effect on market share and its competitive position
will not be impaired. Their concerns are almost certainly
exaggerated, but they likely will voice a preference for the ad
valorem option.
GENERAL COMMENTS
As a general rule, the smallest tax on the broadest tax base
will ruffle the fewest political feathers. Among these three tax
proposals, ad valorem at the point of delivery has the broadest
base: it applies to "raw" energy costs plus all processing and
distribution costs. The corollary is that it changes behavior (in
terms of the selection of fuels) the least.
As to the reaction of various interest groups:
Environmentalists: Prefer a BTU tax. However, at the lower
levels ($20 billion) they will not accept the tax as an
environmental initiative because it will not likely induce fuel
switching away from coal. May support a point of delivery ad
valorem tax to the extent that it could lead to greater energy
efficiency. Will oppose an ad valorem tax imposed at point of
production because of possible fuel switching to coal.
Auto industry: Have supported a gas tax. Would support any
of these options to a lesser degree than a gas tax because it will
increase their costs. The Big Three have, however, indicated some
willingness to support a broader based tax. They will likely try
to tie their support to some commitment that CAFE not be
increased.
Western Coal Producing States: Prefer ad valorem tax imposed
at the point of production.
Eastern Coal Producing States: Prefer a point of delivery ad
valorem tax.
- 3 -
The Northeast States: Primarily use oil. Therefore, prefer
BTU tax.
The Midwestern States: Primarily use coal. Therefore,
prefer the ad valorem options. Difficult to predict which type of
ad valorem would be preferable because these states also produce
coal.
The Pacific Northwest and California: Use little coal;
depend primarily on nuclear and natural gas. Would likely prefer
a BTU tax.
The Southern States: Mixed dependence on coal and natural
gas. Difficult to predict the preference of these states as a
region. Texas and Louisiana use natural gas and on that basis
could be expected to prefer an ad valorem tax. However, because
these states also produce oil, there could be a preference for a
BTU tax (of course, these states would primarily prefer an oil
import fee).
Energy Intensive Industries: Difficult to predict. Some are
very electric intensive; others burn fossil fuel for industrial
heat.
****DISCLAIMER: Interest group representatives have not been
polled in reaching these assessments. Rather, predicted
preferences are based on primary fuel use and the likely
reaction of the producers of those fuels (discussed in the first
portion of this memorandum).
January 30, 1993
TO:
FROM:
gol
RE: Politics of Energy Taxes
This memo gives some general observations on the politics of
three types of energy taxes: BTU taxes, ad valorem energy taxes at
the primary level (minemouth, wellhead, etc.), and ad valorem
energy taxes at the point of delivery. The focus is on how these
taxes affect coal, oil, and gas producers. These effects will
likely determine the politics of the debate over energy taxes in
Congress and among the States.
One important distinction to keep in mind concerns the price
increases such taxes will cause. The price of coal is less than
1/3 the price of oil in dollars per BTU, with natural gas in
between. By definition, a BTU tax causes equal tax increases for
the 3 fuels measured in dollars per BTU. However, the percentage
price increases for the 3 fuels will vary significantly.
Conversely, an ad valorem tax causes an equal tax increases
measured in percentage terms. However, the price increases in
dollars per BTU will vary significantly. Proponents of various
fuels will cite "unfair" price increases and will focus on dollar
increases or percentage increases as it suits their purposes.
EFFECT ON COAL PRODUCERS
A BTU tax hits coal the heaviest of the 3 taxes in percentage
terms. A BTU tax raising $20 billion might raise delivered coal
prices by 17%, compared to increases of 3% and 7% for oil and gas
respectively. Is this sense, a BTU is similar to, but not as
harsh as a carbon tax. Some environmentalists realize this
connection and view a BTU tax as a reasonable second choice to a
carbon tax.
Coal producers would prefer ad valorem taxes to BTU taxes.
Western coal producers would prefer ad valorem at the minemouth
because their minemouth prices are very low, hence the tax would
be low. Their delivered coal prices are much higher because of
long-haul, high transportation costs. Eastern coal producers
would take the opposite view. They would support ad valorem at
point of delivery in order preserve the existing competitive
relationships between Western and Eastern coal.
The DRI economic model predicts that ad valorem at the
primary level can result in an increase in coal use, a negative
from the environmental perspective.
enrors
they truckers nuke mall intradure copress which the Northeast , tates studes will will part in Wesden mislerent which ways
Ex
Souther
states
arts
1
the
you might
- 2 -
spell one hecord of you been
EFFECT ON OIL PRODUCERS
relatives high
Oil producers bear the smallest burden under a BTU tax.
Their biggest concern is their competitive position vis-a-vis
natural gas. A BTU tax is best at preserving that. Consumers in
regions most dependent on oil and least dependent on coal (such as
the Northeast) would be most supportive of a BTU tax (and vice-
versa for the Midwest)
EFFECT ON NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS
Natural gas producers are similarly most concerned with
competing with oil in the fuel market, and are best off under an
ad valorem tax. They would be somewhat worse off under a BTU tax,
but their competitive position would be virtually unchanged. Gas
is so much cheaper than oil on a BTU basis that an equal-cents-
per-BTU tax will have little affect on market share. Their
concerns may be exaggerated, but their voices will be heard.
GENERAL COMMENTS
As a general rule, the smallest tax on the broadest tax base
will ruffle the fewest political feathers. Among these three tax
proposals, ad valorem at the point of delivery has the broadest
base: it applies to "raw" energy costs plus all processing and
distribution costs. The corollary is that it changes behavior the
least.
01/29/93 15:02
202 456 7739
WHITE HOUSE/OEDP
001/004
Date: 1-29-93
Time: :
THE WHITE HOUSE
PHOTOCOPY
PRESERVATION
FAX COVER SHEET
TO:
Katie mc Ginty
Phone:
(_)
456-6224
FAX:
(
)
456-6231
FROM:
Heather Ross
Phone:
(202) 456- 7988
Pages following cover sheet = 3
01/29/93
15:02
202 456 7739
WHITE HOUSE/OEDP
002/004
TO:
ECONe - Energy Working Group
FROM:
Heather Ross
PHOTOCOPY
DATE:
January 29, 1993
PRESERVATION
SUBJECT: Next Steps
Agreement this morning to produce factual reports as
follows:
A.
Modelling (Dick Morgenstern)
Tax alternatives
1. BTU
2. Ad valorem - at source
3. Ad valorem - end use
4. Carbon
5. Gasoline
6. Oil import fee
assuming 2.5c/gasoline tax extension in baseline.
Levels: 1.
Net revenue = $22 billion, fully
phased in.
2.
Net revenue = $40 billion, fully phased
in, with $18 billion income tax give
back (modelled as per capita refundable
credit, with whatever further insights
EPA can offer about alternatives)
Phasing: Linear over four years, 1/1/94 - 1/1/97
Tax base: BTU and ad valorem - all energy. (Technicals
to decide non-fossil equivalence; policy
discussion about renewables left to later)
Carbon - fossil fuels
(all variants net out non-fuel uses)
Results: 1997 revenues; 2000 impacts, including:
GNP
energy consumption, domestic production; fuel
shares
oil imports
price changes: at source, retail
regional effects: prices and incomes
distributional effects: income and
consumption classes*
01/29/93 15:03
202 456 7739
WHITE HOUSE/OEDP
4
003/004
industry impacts: domestic incidence,
international competitiveness
*EPA to evaluate regressivity mitigation
measures, where readily available
Technicals (not in Somalia sense) to work out exact product
content and format to meet heroic timeframe. Focus on BTU and ad
valorem (2); others for comparison. Desire expressed for text as
well as tables/charts.
B.
Administrative considerations (John Parcell)
cost, complexity, visibility, enforceability, public
receptivity
C.
Political considerations (Katie McGinty, Rich Rosenzweig)
campaign, Hill, state and local government, industry,
public
Reports A, B and C due Sunday, January 30, 5:00 p.m. by fax to all
participants (See attached)
Meeting Monday, February 1, 2:00 p.m., Room 472 OEOB to discuss
reports and any further supporting work, and to outline decision
memo.
CC: BO Cutter
PHOTOCOPY
PRESERVATION
01/29/93
15:03
202 456 7739
WHITE HOUSE/OEDP
004/004
AD HOC ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING
Friday, January 29, 1993 - 10:30 a.m. - Room 476 OEOB
tome
Representative
Room
Phone
Fax
01-320-3763
OMB - Randy Lyon
9002 NEOB
395-5800
395-1151
Kathy Peroff
8001 NEOB
395-3404
395-4817
+10-956-4078
Gary Bennethum
8013 NEOB
395-3634
395-3165
703-759-3007 Jim Mietus
8013 NEOB
395-3183
395-3165
Treasury -
103-243-2078 John Parcell
1064
622-2578
622-1772
703-522-6510 James Nunns
4043
622-1328
622-0236
Sam Sessions
3108
622-0130
622-0281
103-527-1150
Norm Richter
3127
622-0586
622-0281
202-547-1090
VP - Katie McGinty
286 OEOB
456-6224
456-6231
Greg Simon
288 OEOB
456-6222
456-6231
301-913-0252
CEA - Ray Squitieri
317 OEOB
395-6982
395-6947
103-824-0254
DOE - Richard Rosenzweig
7A-257
586-6210
586-7644
202-544-7731
EPA - Richard Morgenstern
1215 West
Tower
260-4711
260-4852
chuck
202-546-9208
Jonathan Fox
1204 West
Tower
260-7960
260-3684
202-966-6646
NEC - Heather Ross
227 OEOB
456-7988
456-7739
Bo Cutter
231 OEOB
456-6630
456-7739
PHOTOCOPY
PRESERVATION
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 :11:51AM ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216;# 2
218 D STREET. S.E.
NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON, D.C.
20003
MIDWEST
TEL: (202) 546-5200
FAX: (202) 544-0043
INSTITUTE
THE CENTER FOR REGIONAL POLICY
State-by-State Impacts
of
Energy Tax Alternatives
by
Diane De Vaul
Northeast-Midwest Institute
218 D Street, S.E.
Washington, D.C. 20003
FYI from Johnathan N
201637-2201 202/637-
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
;
1-29-93
:11:51AM
;
HON. JACK REED->
94566216;# 3
Overview
The Clinton Administration is considering a variety of energy tax alternatives.
The accompanying tables show the state-by-state implications of four different
approaches: an oil import fee, a gasoline tax, a BTU tax and a carbon tax.
To allow for consistent comparisons, the tables assume that each tax option will
raise $5 billion in federal tax revenue. Achieving such a revenue goal requires a $1.71
per-barrel oil import fee; a 4.5 cent per-gallon gasoline tax; a BTU tax of $61,613.69 per
trillion BTUs; and a carbon tax of $86.763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal consumed,
$49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of gas consumed, and $71,516.47 per trillion BTUs of oil
consumed.
Several explanatory notes:
Although an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel would provide $5 billion of
federal tax revenue, it would cost American consumers $10.6 billion because
the price of domestically produced oil also would rise.
wey?
Table 2 compares the per-household cost for each of the four energy tax
alternatives. As an example, for the federal government to raise $5 billion in
energy tax revenues, the average Connecticut household would pay an extra
$106 per year for an oil import fee, $48 for a gasoline tax. $37 for a BTU tax,
and $31 for a carbon tax.
Table 3 compares each state's share of the total costs for each tax option.
Consider Connecticut again as an example. The state has 1.32 percent of the
nation's population. It would pay 1.99 percent of the total cost of an oil
import fee, 1.17 percent of the total cost for a gasoline tax, 0.90 percent of the
total cost for a BTU tax, and 0.76 percent of the total cost for a carbon tax.
Tables 4-6 provide the same data on total costs per state, per-household costs,
and state shares, but they exclude the industrial sector. Some analysts argue
that excluding the industrial sector provides a more accurate picture of the
cost impacts of energy taxes because the preponderance of the chemical and
refining industries, which consume massive amounts of energy, are located
only in a few states. specifically Texas and Louisiana. These analysts conclude.
moreover. that including the industrial sector skews the state-by-state impacts
as the chemical and refining industries pass on any higher taxes ID consumers
throughout the country.
To understand the impact of other energy tax levels. the reader simply can
multiply the presented numbers by, the appropriate factor. An energy tax that
would provide the federal government with S50 billion in tax revenue, for
instance. would cost ten times more than the charts show: an oil import fee
raising $50 billion in federal tax revenue, therefore. would cost Connecticut
consumers $1,183,491,000, or $1.060 per household in the state.
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 ;11:52AM ;
HON. JACK REED-
94566216;# 4
Table 1. Cost of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion¹
(in dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
OU
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee'
Tax'
Tax
Tax
New England
Connecticut
129,852,270
58,608,111
45,107,382
37,892,004
Maine
72,136,350
26,600,730
22,378,092
17.903.767
Massachusetts
237,332,610
105,465,765
82,636,281
79,120,669
New Hampshire
47,505,510
22,167,275
14,965,965
14,426,724
Rhode Island
30,750,930
16.508,312
11.996,185
8,790,790
Vermont
22,130,820
12,615,522
7,800,293
5,247,022
Total
539,708.490
241,965,715
184,884,200
163,380.975
Mid-Atlantic
Delaware
40,318,380
15,066,538
14,510,024
16,611,026
Maryland
154,312,110
89,245,808
74,811,342
69,444,055
New Jersey
369,816,570
147,493,476
139,253,101
114,613,277
New York
536,382.540
262,006,373
220,817,304
200,697,655
Pennsylvania
393.226,470
202.316,931
219,991,680
248,797,530
Total
1,494,056,070
716,129,126
669,383,451
650,163,542
Midwest
Illinois
387,217,530
228,016,552
217,798,233
200,107,446
Indiana
260,739,090
116,567,425
150.405.179
200,744,959
Town
98,665,290
59,653,398
55,403,030
61,424,700
Michigan
288,418,860
188,079,413
168,421,022
173,267,968
Minnesota
155,527,920
89,894,606
81,182,198
77,939,849
Ohio
350.849,250
208.011,938
227.853,587
241.638,260
Wisconsin
150,486,840
91.841,001
84.133,494
83,623,667
Total
1,691,904,780
982,064,333
985,196,742
1,038,746,848
South
Alabama
165,138,120
92,633,977
96,850,559
109,047,700
Arkansas
88,675,470
54,571,144
48,163,421
49,885,281
District of Columbia
11,445,030
7,605,358
10,449,682
4,244,630
Florida
484,078,770
267,989,735
188,494,762
183,561,400
Georgia
260,036,280
156,540,608
127,774,470
137,234,265
Kentucky
159,939,720
81,027.697
89,592,467
115,658,617
Louisiana
457,259,130
82,757,825
215,259,749
201,146,831
Mississippi
124,128,900
54.751,366
$7,688,898
50,121,684
North Carolina
232.443.720
145,943,569
120.023.168
106,474,631
Oklahoma
135,508,950
74.143.226
83,320.193
85,732,568
South Carolina
127,562,580
81,460,229
73,548,262
60.621,282
Tehnessee
183,315,420
109,178,333
108,002,637
105,289.309
Texas
1,534,070,070
386,683,776
603,623,160
619,460.251
Virginia
234,654,750
132,390,894
113,196.671
92,060.649
West Virginia
91,691,910
36,981,502
49,679,118
102,999,004
Total
4,289,948.820
1,764,659,238
1,985,667,517
2,023,538,105
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 11:52AM : ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216;# 5
Table 1. Cost of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion' (continued)
(in dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
OII
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee'
Tax
Tax
Tax'
West
Alaska
70,200,630
11,029,571
35,834,522
33,830,994
Arizona
110,329,200
74,035,093
56,456,624
61,194,685
California
1,096,498,170
576,024,741
450,211,233
353.946,344
Colorado
103,506,300
66,934,356
56,265,622
63,823,769
Howali
85,999,320
16,328,090
18,422,493
21,263,299
Idaho
37,406,250
21,554,521
22,963,422
11,790,343
Kansas
133,593.750
53,886,302
63,474,423
70,138,855
Missouri
196,051,500
120,460,214
90,929,484
102,929,193
Montana
45,451,800
19,427,904
20,831,589
27,109,317
Nebraska
64,574.730
34,746,752
31,293,593
32,279,740
Novada
53,923.140
28,114,592
24,127,921
29,944,782
New Mexico
73,499,220
35,107,196
36,783.373
52,145,093
North Dakota
34,165,800
15,354,893
18,903,080
41,965,213
Oregon
109,192,050
59,725,486
57,165,182
32,279,667
South Dakota
34,819,020
16,904,800
12,550,709
11,630,938
Utah
60,581,880
31,466,717
33,450,072
52,015,492
Washington
239,333,310
100,635,822
120,337.698
72,099,566
Wyoming
38,627,190
13,372,453
24,540,733
53.776,213
Total
2,587,753,260
1,295,109.504
1.174,541,772
1,124,163,501
Northeast
2,033,764,560
958,094,841
834.267,650
813,544,518
Midwest
1,691,904,780
982,064,333
985,196,742
1,038,746,848
Northeast and Midwest
3,725,669,340
1,940,159,174
1,839,464,392
1.852.291,366
South
4,289,948,820
1,764,659,238
1,985,667,517
2,023,538,105
West
2,587,753,260
1,295,109.504
1,174,541,772
1,124,163,501
South and Weat
6,877,702,080
3,059,768.742
3,160,209,290
3,147,701,606
U.S. Total
10,603,371,420.
4,999,927,916
4,999,673.682
4,999,992,972
Goal is $5 billion in federal tax revenue.
Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel.
Based on an increase of 1.5 cents per gallon.
Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU.
Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of cont used; $49,371.78 per trillion BTU: of natural gns used: and
$71,516.47 per trillion BTUs of petroleum used.
SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on U.S. Department of Energy. Energy
Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume / (Washington, D.C..
May 1991), p. 15; State Energy Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington,
D.C., May 1992). pp. 31 and 34; and carbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela
Pippin. "Unlted States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide to the Barth's Atmosphere by Economic
Activity," in Energy Systems and Policy. Volume 14 (London: Taylor and Francis, 1991),
PP- 319-336.
SENT BY CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 ;11:52AM ;
HON. JACK REED->
94566216;# 6
Table 2 Cost to Households of Four
Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion¹
(in dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Oil
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee'
Tax
Tax4
Tax
New England
Connecticut
106
48
37
31
Maine
155
57
48
39
Massachusetts
106
47
37
35
Now Hampshire
116
54
36
35
Rhode Island
81
44
32
23
Vermont
105
60
37
25
Total
109
49
37
33
Mid-Atlantie
Delaware
163
61
59
67
Maryland
as
51
43
40
New Jersey
132
53
50
41
New York
81
39
33
30
Pennsylvania
87
45
49
55
Total
94
45
42
d1
Midwest
Illinois
92
$4
$2
48
Indiana
126
56
73
97
Inwa
93
56
52
58
Michigan
84
$5
49
31
Minnesota
94
55
49
47
Ohio
86
51
56
59
Wisconsin
83
so
46
46
Total
92
S4
54
57
South
Alabama
110
61
64
72
Arkansas
100
61
54
56
District of Columbia
46
30
42
17
Florida
94
52
37
36
Georgia
110
66
54
58
Kentucky
116
59
65
84
Louisiana
305
55
144
134
Mississippi
136
60
63
SS
North Carolina
92
58
48
42
Oklahoma
112
61
69
71
South Carolina
101
65
58
48
Tennessee
99
59
58
57
Texas
253
64
99
102
Virginia
102
58
49
40
West Virginia
133
54
72
149
Total
144
59
67
68
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 11:53AM ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216;# 7
Table 2 Cost to Households of Four
Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion' (continued)
(in dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
OII
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee2
Tax'
Tax'
Tax
West
Alaska
371
58
190
179
Arizona
81
54
41
45
California
106
55
43
34
Colorado
81
52
44
SD
Hawaii
242
46
52
60
Idaho
104
60
64
33
Kansas
141
57
67
74
Missouri
100
61
46
52
Montana
149
63
68
89
Nebraska
107
58
52
54
Novada
116
60
52
64
New Mexico
135
65
68
96
North Dakota
142
64
78
174
Oregon
99
54
52
29
South Dakota
134
65
48
4S
Utah
113
59
62
97
Washington
128
54
64
39
Wyoming
229
79
145
318
Total
113
56
51
49
Northeast
97
46
41
39
Midwest
92
54
54
57
Northeast and Midwest
95
50
47
47
South
144
59
67
68
West
113
56
51
49
South and Went
130
58
60
60
U.S. Total
115
S4
54
54
'Goal is $5 billion in federal tax revenue.
Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel.
Based on an increase of 4.5 cents per gallon.
Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU.
Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gas used; and
571515.27 per trillion B TUs of petroleum used.
SOURCE: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on households by state from U.S. Department of
Commerce. Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1992 (Washington,
D.C., 1992). p. 49: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.
Petrolation Supply Annual 1990: Volume I (Washington, D.C., May 1991). P. 15; State Emerge
Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington, D.C., May 1992). PP. 31 and
34: and earbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin, "United States
Emissions of Carbon Dioxide to the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity," in Energy
Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (Landon: Taylor and Francis. 1991). PP. 319-336.
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 ;11:53AM ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216:# 8
Table 3. State Shares of Costs
Produced by Four Energy Tax Options1
(in percent of U.S. total)
Portion of
Share
Share of
Share of
Share of
U.S.
of OII
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Population
Import Fee'
Tar'
Tax4
Tax'
New England
Connecticut
1.32
1.22
1.17
0.90
0.76
Malue
0.49
0.68
0.53
0.45
0.36
Massachusetts
2.42
224
2.11
1.65
158
New Hampshire
0.45
0.45
0.44
0.30
0.29
Rhode Island
0.40
0.29
0.33
0.24
0.18
Vermont
0.23
0.21
0.25
0.16
0.10
Total
9.31
5.09
4.84
3.70
3.27
Mid-Atlantic
Delaware
0.27
0.38
0.30
0.29
0.33
Maryland
1.92
1.46
1.78
1.50
1.39
New Jersey
3.11
3.49
2.95
2.79
2.29
New York
7.23
5.06
5.24
4.42
4.01
Pennsylvania
4.78
3.71
4.03
4.40
4.98
Total
17.31
14.09
14.32
13.39
13.00
Midwest
Illinois
4.60
3.65
4.56
4.36
4.00
Indiana
223
2.46
2.33
3.01
4.01
Iowa
1.12
0.93
1.19
1.11
1.23
Michigan
3.74
2.72
3.76
3.37
3.47
Minnesota
1.76
1.47
1.80
1.62
1.56
Ohio
4.36
3.31
4.16
4.56
4.83
Wisconsin
1.97
1.42
1.84
1.68
1.67
Total
19.77
15.96
19.64
19.71
20.77
South
Alabama
1.62
1.56
1.85
1.94
2.18
Arkansas
0.95
0.84
1.09
0.96
1.00
District of Columbia
0.24
0.11
0.15
0.21
0.08
Florida
5.20
4.57
5.36
3.77
3.67
Georgia
2.60
2.45
3.13
2.56
2.74
Kentucky
1.48
1.51
1.62
1.79
2.31
Louisinna
1.70
4.31
1.66
4.31
4.02
Mississippi
1.03
1.17
1.10
1.15
1.00
North Carolina
2.67
2.19
2.92
2.40
2.13
Oklahoma
1.26
1.28
1.48
1.67
1.71
South Carolina
1.40
1.20
1.63
1.47
1.21
Tennessee
1.96
1.73
2.18
2.16
2.11
Texas
6.83
14.47
7.73
12.07
12.39
Virginia
2.49
2.21
2.65
2.26
1.84
West Virginia
0.72
0.86
0.74
0.99
2.06
Total
32.17
40.16
35.29
39.72
40.47
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
;
1-29-93 11:53AM ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216;# 9
Table 3. State Shares of Costs
Produced by Four Energy Tax Options1 (continued)
(in percent of U.S. total)
Portion of
Share
Share of
Share of
Share of
U.S.
of On
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Population
Import For
Tax!
Tax
Tax'
West
Alaska
0.22
0.66
0.22
0.72
0.68
Arizona
1.47
1.04.
1.48
1.13
1.22
California
11.97
10.34
11.52
9.00
7.08
Colorado
1.32
0.98
134
1.13
1.28
Hawaii
0.45
0.81
0.33
0.37
0.43
Idaho
0.40
0.35
0.43
0.46
0.24
Kansas
1.00
1.26
1.08
1.27
1.40
Missouri
2.06
1.85
2.41
1.82
2.06
Montana
0.32
0.43
0.39
0.42
0.54
Nebraska
0.63
0.61
0.69
0,63
0.65
Nevada
0.48
0.51
0.56
0.48
0.60
New Mexico
0.61
0.69
0.70
0.74
1.04
North Dakota
0.26
0.32
0.31
0.38
0.84
Oregon
1.14
1.03
1.19
1.14
0.65
South Dakota
0.28
0.33
0.34
0.25
0.23
Utah
0.69
0.57
0.63
0.67
1.04
Washington
1.96
226
2.01
2.41
1.44
Wyoming
0.18
0.36
0.27
0.49
1.08
Total
25.45
24.41
25.90
23.49
22.48
Northeast
22.62
19.18
19.16
17.09
16.27
Midwest
19.77
13.96
19.64
19.71
20.77
Northeast and Midwest
42.39
35.14
38.80
36.79
37.05
South
32.17
40.46
35.29
39.72
40.47
Went
25.45
24.41
25.90
23.49
22.48
South and West
57.61
64.85
61.20
63.21
62.95
U.S. Total
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
'Goal is $5 billion in federal Inx revenue.
Based on an oil Import for of $1.71 per barrel.
Based on an Increase of 4.3 cents per gallon.
Based on $51,613.69 por trillion BTU.
Based on $86,763.64 per trillion ITUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gns used: and
$71,516.47 pcr trillion BTUs of petroleum used.
SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on U.S. Department of Commerce, Burenu of the
Census, "Census Burenu Completes Distribution of 1990 Census Information from Summary
Tape File IA" (news release, Washington, D.C.. June 11, 1991: U.S. Department of Energy,
Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Amual 1990: Volume I (Washington,
D.C., May 1991). p. 15; State Energy Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990
(Washington. D.C., May 1992). PP. 31 and 34; and carbon coofficients from Gregg Marland
and Angela Pippin. "United States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide w the Earth's Atmosphere
by Economic Activity." in Energy Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (London: Taylor and
Francis, 1991), PP. 319-336.
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 :11:54AM ;
HON. JACK REED-
94566216:#10
Table 4. Total Energy Tax Costs to
States Excluding Industrial Sector1
(in dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
OU
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee1
Tax'
Tax
Tax'
New England
Connecticut
118,349,100
58,103,491
36,986,698
33,790,080
Maine
60,641,730
26,420,508
15,582,102
14,388.497
Massachusetts
219,779,460
104,672,789
69,235,303
72,498,098
New Hampshire
42,700,410
22,059,142
11,306,112
13,015,889
Rhode Island
26,217,720
16,436,223
9,790,415
7,381,444
Vermont
20,603,790
12,471,345
6,407,824
4,795,633
Total
488,292,210
240,163,497
149,308.455
145,869,641
Mid-Atlantic
Delaware
29.878,830
14,958,405
8,730.660
12,742,384
Maryland
130,876,560
88,705,143
49,377,211
55,457,212
New Jersey
290,493,090
146,628,412
106,973,689
90,777,672
New York
489,776,490
259,843,712
177.780,141
176,792.094
Pennsylvania
315,183,780
200,082,181
132,956,182
183,512,683
Total
1,256,208,750
710,217,853
475,817,882
519,282,045
Midwest
Illinais
283,613,760
225,637,625
143,954,225
148,895,045
Indiana
194,611,680
115,377,961
77,583,958
143,829,464
lows
79,355,970
57,634,914
35,255,353
48,095,880
Michigan
238,690,350
186,241,151
112,143,077
139,207,394
Minnesota
121.062,870
87,804,034
51,188,654
63,099.564
Ohio
271,878.030
206,173,676
132,574,177
187.562.186
Wisconsin
127,514,700
90,363,183
55,754,228
67,952,846
Total
1,316,727,360
969,232,545
608,453,673
798,642,380
South
Alabama
130,796,190
91,804,957
52,457,896
80,361,862
Arkansas
74,665,J4()
53,778,169
30,338,581
39,822,259
District of Columbia
11,219,310
7,425,136
8,410,269
4,194,568
Florida
448,833,960
265,971,251
162,235,007
167,601,065
Georgia
223,849,260
154,125,636
88,582,002
115,376,290
Kentucky
118,109,700
79,441,745
49,451,148
94,677,826
Louisiana
203.341.230
82,109,027
75,291,929
85,471,841
Mississippi
88,222,320
53,670,036
34,959,608
35,792,941
North Carolina
192,005,640
144,429,706
80,806,354
86,088,443
Oklahoma
104,527,170
72.557.275
48,915,108
61,668.582
South Carolina
104,946,120
80.126,588
43,203,519
45,723,385
Tennessee
146,476,890
108,097,003
63,628,458
82,263,728
Texas
665,509,770
378,537,753
265,105,224
339,513,017
Virginia
204,131,250
131,057,253
83,689,875
70,506,238
West Virginin
47,483,280
36,512,926
21,971,442
78,964,169
Total
2,764,117,530
1,739,644,460
1,109,046,420
1,388,026,213
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 ;11:54AM ;
HON. JACK REED->
94566216;#11
Table 4. Total Energy Tax Costs to
States Excluding Industrial Sector1 (continued)
(In dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
OII
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee2
Tax'
Tax*
Tax'
West
Alaske
58,825,710
10,921,438
17,233,349
18,332,358
Arizona
98,448,120
73,097,940
45,212,126
56,170,489
California
912,893,760
570,077,424
333,804,488
274,713,644
Colorado
87,950,430
66,177,425
43,511,588
55,375,531
Hawaii
76,985,910
16,075,780
13,973,985
18,906,885
Idaho
29.504,340
20,905,722
14,466,894
7,891,026
Kensas
79,355,970
52,444,528
38,471,588
50,840,262
Missouri
160,091.910
119,198,662
69,635,792
89,024,975
Montana
28,021,770
18,274,485
11,817,506
21,921,723
Nebraska
49,446,360
32,944,535
23,382,395
27,173,863
Nevada
45,379.980
27,790,193
17,436,674
27,159,415
New Mexico
52.228.530
34,494,442
24,577,701
43,382,618
North Dakote
23,341,500
13.841,030
9,470.024
31.325,268
Oregon
92,302,380
58,932,511
39,981,123
25,486,655
South Dakota
26,274,150
15,967,647
9,217,408
9,144,052
Utah
48,789,720
31,106,273
20,381,809
41,919,290
Washington
185,572,620
99,410,315
76,209,973
54,321,334
Wyoming
25,506,360
12,579.478
9,556,283
43,389,734
Total
2,080,919,520
1,274,239,826
818,340,708
896,479.122
Northeast
1,744,500,960
950,381,350
625,126.337
665,151,686
Midwest
1,316,727,360
969,232,545
608.453,673
798,642,380
Northeast and Midwest
3,061,228,320
1,919,613,895
1,233,580,010
1,463,794,066
South
2,764,117,530
1,739,644,460
1,109,046,420
1,388,026,213
West
2,080,919,520
1.274.239,826
818,340,708
896,479,122
South and West
4,845,037,050
3,013,884,286
1,927,387,128
2,284,505,335
U.S. Total
7,906,265.370
4,933,498,181
3,160,967.138
3,748,299,401
'Goal is $5 billion in federal tax revenue.
Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per borrel.
Based on an increase of 4.5 cents per gallon.
Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU.
"Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal used; $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gas used: and
$71,516.47 pcr trillion BTUs of petroleum used.
SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on U.S. Department of Energy, Energy
Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume / (Washington, D.C.,
May 1991). P. 15: State Energy Data Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington,
D.C., May 1992). PP. 31 and 34; and carbon coefficients from Grugg Marland and Angela
Pippin. "United States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide to the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic
Activity." in Energy Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (London: Tavlor and Francis, 1991),
PP. 319-336.
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 ;11:55AM ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216;#12
Table 5. State Shares of Revenues Produced by
Four Energy Tax Options Excluding Industrial Sector1
(in percent of U.S. total)
Portion of
Share
Share of
Share of
Share of
U.S.
of OII
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Population
Import Fee2
Tax
Tax
Tax'
New England
Connecticut
1.32
1.50
1.18
1.17
0.90
Maine
0.49
0.77
0.54
0.49
0.38
Massachusetts
2.42
2.78
2.12
2.19
1.93
New Hampshire
0.45
0.54
0.45
0.36
0.35
Rhode Island
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.20
Vermont
0.23
0.26
0.25
0.20
0.13
Total
531
6.18
4.87
4.72
3.89
Mid-Atlantic
Delaware
0.27
0.38
0.30
0.28
0.34
Maryland
1.92
1.66
1.80
1.56
1.48
New Jersey
3.11
3.67
2.97
3.38
2.42
New York
7.23
6.19
5.27
5.62
4.72
Pennsylvania
4.78
3.99
4.06
4.21
4.90
Total
17.31
15.89
14.40
15.05
13.85
Midwest
Illinois
4.60
3.59
4.57
4.35
3.97
Indiana
2.23
2.46
2.34
2.45
3.84
lown
1.12
1.00
1.17
1.12
1.28
Michigan
3.74
3.02
3.78
3.55
3.71
Minnesota
1.76
1.53
1.78
1.62
1.68
Ohio
4.36
3.44
4.18
4.19
5.00
Wisconsin
1.97
1.61
1.83
1.76
1.81
Total
19.77
16.65
19.65
19.25
21.31
South
Alabama
1.62
1.65
1.86
1.66
2.14
Arkansas
0.95
0.94
1.09
0.96
1.06
District of Columbia
0.24
0.14
0.15
0.27
0.11
Florida
5.20
5.68
5.39
5.13
4.47
Georgia
2.60
2.83
3.12
2.80
3.08
Kentucky
1.48
1.49
1.61
1.56
2.53
Louisiana
1.70
2.57
1.66
2.38
2.28
Mississippi
1.03
1.12
1.09
1.11
0.95
North Carolina
2.67
2.43
2.93
2.56
2.30
Oklahoma
1.26
1.32
1.47
1.55
1.65
South Carolina
1.40
1.33
1.62
1.37
1.22
Tennessee
1.96
1.85
2.19
2.01
2.19
Texas
6.83
8.42
7.67
8.39
9.06
Virginia
2.49
2.58
2.56
2.65
1.88
West Virginia
0.72
0.60
0.74
0.70
2.11
Total
32.17
34.96
35.26
35.09
37.03
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 11:55AM ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216;#13
Table 5. State Shares of Revenues Produced by Four
Energy Tax Options Excluding Industrial Sector1 (continued)
(in percent of U.S. total)
Portion of
Share
Share of
Share of
Share of
U.S.
of Oil
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Population
Import Fes'
Tax'
Tax
Tar'
West
Alaska
0.22
0.74
0.22
0.55
0.49
Arizona
1.47
1.25
1.48
1.43
150
California
11.97
11.55
11.56
10.36
7.33
Colorado
1.32
1.11
134
1.38
1.48
Hawaii
0.45
0.97
0.33
0.44
0.50
Idaho
0.40
0.37
0.42
0.46
0.21
Kansas
1.00
1.00
1.06
1.22
1.36
Missouri
2.06
2.02
2.42
2.20
2.38
Montana
0.32
0.35
0.37
0.37
0.58
Nebraska
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.74
0.72
Nevada
0.48
0.57
0.56
0.55
0.72
Now Mexico
0.61
0.66
0.70
0.78
1.16
North Dakota
0.26
0.30
0.28
0.30
0.84
Oregon
1.14
1.17
1.19
1.26
0.68
South Dakota
0.28
0.33
0.32
0.29
0.24
Utah
0.69
0.62
0.63
0.64
1.12
Washington
1.96
235
2.02
2.41
1.45
Wyoming
0.18
0.32
0.25
0.30
1.16
Total
25.45
26.32
25.83
25.89
23.92
Northeast
22.62
22.06
19.26
19.78
17.75
Midwest
19.77
16.65
19.65
19.25
2131
Northeast and Midwent
42.39
38.72
38.91
39.03
39.05
South
32.17
34.96
35.26
35.09
37.03
West
25.45
26.32
25.83
25.89
23.92
South and West
57.61
61.28
61.09
60.97
60.95
U.S. Total
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
'Goal is $5 billion in federal 10% revenue.
Based on 32 all Import fee of $1.71 per barrel.
Based on an Increase of 4.5 cents per gallon.
Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU.
Based on $86,763.61 per trillion BTUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gas used: and
$71,516.47 per trillion IITUs of petroleum used.
SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on Bureau of the Census, "Census Burenu
Completes Distribution of 1990 Census Information from Summary Tape File IA" (news
release. Washington, D.C., June 11. 1991: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration. Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume I (Washington, D.C., May 1991), P.
15: State Energy Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington, D.C., May
1992). PP. 31 and 34; and carbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin,
"United States Emissions of Carbon Diaxide to the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic
Activity," in Energy Systems and Policy. Volume 14 (London: Taylor and Francis, 1991).
PP. 319-336.
SENT BY :CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 ;11:55AM ;
HON. JACK REED->
94566216;#14
Table 6. Cost to Households of Four Energy Tax
Options to Raise $5 Billion Excluding Industrial Sector
(in dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
OII
Gasoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee'
Tax'
Tax
Tax'
New England
Connecticut
96
47
30
27
Maine
130
57
34
31
Massachusetts
98
47
31'
32
New Hempshire
104
54
28
32
Rhode Island
69
43
26
20
Vermont
98
59
30
23
Total
99
49
30
30
Mid-Atlantic
Delaware
121
61
35
52
Maryland
75
51
28
32
New Jersey
104
52
38
32
New York
74
39
27
27
Pennsylvania
70
45
30
41
Total
79
45
30
33
Midwest
Illinois
67
54
34
35
Indiana
94
56
38
70
lawn
75
54
33
45
Michigan
70
54
33
41
Minnesota
73
53
31
38
Ohio
67
50
32
46
Wisconsin
70
50
31
37
Total
72
53
33
44
South
Alabama
87
61
35
53
Arkansas
84
60
34
45
District of Columbia
45
30
34
17
Florida
87
52
32
33
Georgia
95
65
37
49
Kentucky
86
58
36
69
Louisiana
136
55
50
37
Mississippi
97
59
38
39
North Carolina
76
S7
32
34
Oklahoma
87
60
41
51
South Carolina
83
64
34
36
Tennessee
79
SS
34
44
Texas
110
62
44
56
Virginia
89
57
37
31
West Virginia
69
53
32
115
Total
93
58
37
47
SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE
; 1-29-93 11:56AM ;
HON. JACK REED
94566216:#15
Table 6. Cost to Households of Four Energy Tax
Options to Raise $5 Billion Excluding Industrial Sector1 (continued)
(in dollars)
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
Cost of
OII
Casoline
BTU
Carbon
State or Region
Import Fee'
Tax'
Tax'
Tax'
West
Alaska
311
58
91
97
Arizona
72
53
33
41
Callfornia
88
SS
32
26
Colorado
69
S2
34
43
Hawaii
216
45
39
53
Idaho
82
58
40
22
Kansas
84
55
41
54
Missouri
82
61
36
45
Montana
92
60
39
72
Nebraska
82
55
39
45
Nevada
97
60
37
58
Now Mexico
96
64
as
80
North Dakota
97
57
39
130
Oregon
84
53
36
23
South Dakota
101
62
36
35
Utah
91
58
38
78
Washington
99
53
41
29
Wyoming
151
74
57
257
Total
91
56
35
39
Northeast
84
46
30
32
Midwest
72
53
33
44
Northeast and Midwest
78
49
31
37
South
93
58
37
47
West
91
56
36
39
South and West
92
57
37
43
U.S. Total
86
54
34
41
Goal is SS billion in federal tax revenue.
Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel.
Based on an increase of 4.5 cents per gallon.
Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU.
Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gns used: and
$71,516.47 per trillion BTU. of petroleum used.
SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on households by state from U.S. Department of
Commerce. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1993 (Washington,
D.C., 1992). P. 19; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,
Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume I (Washington, D.C., May 1991). p. 15: State Energy
Data Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington. D.C.. May 1992), PP. 31 and
31; and earbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin. "United States
Emissions of Carbon Dioxide w the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity." in Energy
Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (London: Taylor and Francis. 1991). PP. 319-336.
Economic Group 1/25/93 President, Vice President, Reich, Rubin,
Panetta, Stephanopoulos, Tyson, Bentsen, Blinder, Mack, G Simon.
Panetta: Need decision by next week for February State of the
Union, GPO docs by 2/15.
President: If tight, fast - Early March. Appropriations will be
deficit targeted. Budget Resolution process should start.
State of the Union can help get short-term debt limit extension.
Long-term in package.
Bentsen: If not done by August, Republicans will hold up.
Stephanopoulos: Hard to pass debt extension after stimulus.
President: When can we pass Budget Resolution?
Panetta: April 15. Then reconciliation process begins,
including cuts and taxes.
Need whole package by August Recess.
President: Stimulus in March, 5 months later for Budget
Three other legislative goals:
1. Health Care
2. National Security
]
+ Vetoed bills
3. Political Reform
How does this timetable affect other legislation?
Panetta: Move Political Reform at same time.
Bentsen: Can't pass Health this year.
AB: Can do some things soon: vaccines, WIC, unif bills.
Brown: What about Fed? What about growth goals? Credit =
better growth goals.
President: Need to announce budget in stimulus.
Vice President: Got credit in bond markets and Laura Tyson
talking about plan.
President: National Security?
Panetta: Separate track on Budget Resolution Reconciliation.
Reich: National Security fits into plan in social theme.
Vice President: Agree.
Panetta: Need help.
Stephanopoulos: Pass report in House and Senate in summer, roll
Conference Report into Reconciliation.
Bentsen: Carrots in tax bill will help - luxury tax, etc.
Panetta: April-May: find Budget Resolution. Reconciliation in
August.
President: Need laundry list of Health strategy.
Need political reform bill now.
Vice President: Who's in charge?
Stephanopoulos: Pastor/Waldman.
* Vice President: Get word to Pastor/Waldman on fast track.
Blinder: Troika usually agrees on the forecast. There is
agreement this year to do each: blue chip and Macro Economic
later. Darman scratched it and put blue chip and Macro zus each.
President: What is blue chip?
AB: Guy in Sedona calls 52 investors and asks for their
forecasts and averages.
Darman probably broke the law.
Darman number -
FY97 305 B
Clinton/Gore transition-
"
52 B for Darman * magic
357 B
The Bush Office forecast would be 266 B if not for Darman
change.
+ 52 B
318 B
CBO goes out Tuesday and is optimistic.
Panetta: If we take 318, CBO will be worse.
Panetta: Can be better than CBO but not too much.
President: Our political position will be stronger if we start
in worse deficit at beginning, not if run own making.
Reich: Need proposal to understand.
Vice President: Our stated view of baseline will not affect
markets?
Rubin: If credit, OK.
Vice President: If higher, that's OK.
Rubin: Yes.
Stephanopoulos: If we take 318 B, then no taxes.
Rubin: Decrease deficit, less we do.
President: What is the truth?
AB: Five year forecast too hard.
President: Why 5 year plan if we can't forecast?
AB: Good question.
Panetta: Ronald Reagan balanced 5 year budget every year.
Reich: Business uses budget range, say ZW 318-357.
LT: Have to choose where in range to act.
Panetta: Congress will go to the bottom of the range.
President: Bentsen?
Bentsen: Need credit number.
LT: Is 20 B of 40 B a gift credit?
Stephanopoulos: Do you do both?
Bensten: Greenspan, Darman number not credit.
Reich: Why not publish range and be conserv
Bentsen: Even if Congress doesn't do it all, the Administration
will have credit.
Panetta: Take high ground.
President: If we go high, Congress will go low.
Reich: Setting range would be bold.
Panetta: Congress will take the easy track.
President: Let's visit about cBo.
Panetta: The closer to CBO the better.
President: If CBO at 340, call leadership about the range.
Let's take the CBO number and stick to it.
Bentsen: Congress is supposed to be doing the CBO number anyway.
President: Let's focus on product, not process on budget
targets.
Al?
Vice President: I agree.
AB: CBO uses long-term growth rate of 2 = lower growth numbers
Do we adopt CBO low-growth rate? Could use our growth rate
and CBO deficit by different assumption on interest rates since
no none knows outyear rates.
Panetta: Bottom line numbers, not growth rate is key.
Reich: Can we be more optimistic?
Rubin: Does that make it harder for a long-term package?
President: We cannot acknowledge economic policy for these
pessimistic growth rates.
LT: If our program is good, why make up numbers?
Vice President: Communication problem. Communicate to market
and public. Credit of forecast / measure of our progress. "We
expect better growth rates but we're tired of lying about
numbers."
President: Say growth numbers are too low, other Administration
lied and got more debt. We can't pretend about the value of
numbers.
Reich: Put our own best guess about our progress in FY97.
Vice President: Spent lots of time in Congress in Tennessee.
Don't believe Sasser and Byrd agree on taking this tough a
stance. Will help us in growth.
President: Can't adopt this growth number. Al's right. Need to
state for Senators who think we should invest our way out.
Stephanopoulos: How is this to be judged in 4 years?
Panetta: Problem -- How to get SOC if goal too easy.
President: Health Care. Unless we pass a health care tax (maybe
more popular than a general tax.) Spend government savings to
extend coverage.
Very specific legislation -- things to do beyond 5-year
time.
We should use Social Security improvements in '83 as a
model.
Bentsen: I strongly agree. Greenspan felt the bond market would
respond to long-term planning (on health care as well).
President: Need to be positioned for 21st Century after 8 years.
Reich: Need 1) to put in investment baseline.
2) per person / GDP
Stephanopoulos: Cant' be judged solely by debt.
President: The press is judging only on debt. They have jobs
and income increase.
Stephanopoulos: Reich should do some memos on other baselines for
the State of the Union.
Panetta: We need stimulus/investment/debt decrease as package.
Bentsen: Pain gets in the papers.
AB: ? Start in CBO forecast if 2357 B. Blue chip in October for
long-term.
-- Stimulus Package --
Panetta: GDP number for 4th quarter is 4 percent. Unemployment
is up, Hs growth. Why the need for a stimulus?
Expect deficits and large layoffs to hit economy.
1st quarter of '93 is soft.
Proposed stimulus.
Need a quick spend out. If construction rate is slow, put
in investment.
Try to avoid new authorization.
PPF themes.
Try to avoid little pieces.
20-30 B range.
15 B on spending program
ITC later, as stimulus now.
[NOTE TO GREG: Manufacturing Tax Credit]
ITC ratio to 12/3/92
S issue jobs / Immun prog - Immun day.
Stephanopoulos: Mikulski recommends goal by start of school.
President: Government buys by the bulk.
*
Vice President: Get pediatricians to give shots at cost [Part
of National Service]
Vice President: Information highways - Need spendout rate.
Water/sewer - ready to go.
Panetta: Let's keep tight. Water/sewer goes to '95.
*
Vice President: If show money ready to go, we got it?
Panetta: Right.
Brown: Connie Lee - college building money, $1 Billion.
If allowed to do 50 percent college, 50 percent other, could
put $1 Billion into eco-guarantee bonds
??
Bentsen: Private sector isn't in Reconciliation.
Panetta: Reg for supplemental for Somalia, Disaster/SBA/UN.
Will talk to Aspin on Deficit.
Enforcement/ Line item veto?
Modified version will move in without you.
HP: Need to re-invest it in Byrd inside. If we don't try, we
lose.
President: Talked to him twice. Need to get out early.
Vice President: Opposed line item veto unless majority vote.
President: Before taxes and cutting benefits, need to give them
something, cut government waste.
Book on Government Waste - Arizona (got 50 cc)
Need high visible cuts in government for Cabinet Secretary
Government Ops Report - need today.
Reich: Need Cabinet Secretary in FY '94 to ensure no pork/waste.
President: Need specific 2nd term savings.
Health Care Tax -- specific purpose tax easier to sell.
Need discussion.
Need everyone to contribute to reducing debt in some way.
Suspend indexing for a year -- double whammy. No taxation
on inflation, but goverment pays inflation.
Indexing only helps at break.
We are preventing a zero-sum game on an 8 million job base.
Need to look at other factors.
Vice President: Take a big bite out of deficit offset by bond
market and Fed to get upturn by '96.
President: Where's the reward for the SOC
How to demonstrate that we produced an increase in growth.
ENERGY TAX
President: What do you prefer?
Bensten: I refer an added value tax. Think oppos to BTU tax or
gas tax. From environmental viewpoint, BTU better but strong
opposition from coal states. Need to feel they are treated
equal.
BTU problem: oil is favored over natural gas.
[Question: How to favor coal and not favor oil?]
President: Sales on VAT or Prop.
Bentsen: Tax on utilitization of energy. At 5 percent, we would
collect $20 Billion/year. BTU 30 cents same level.
BTU brings about change in energy use.
Vice President: BTU would encourage natural gas. Give Bentsen
paper.
1. Added Value encourages coal because cheap and dirty.
Added value hits coal less than oil or natural gas.
Fuel switches to coal -- wipe out reduction of pollution if
reduce energy use.
Environmental pol oppose added value tax.
2. BTU here, BTU other countries. Helps in international
credit on C02 decrease. Not less comp.
Added value, no foreign match.
CO2 really hard on coal, too hard politically. BTU hits coal but
not too hard.
Bentsen: Agree with Vice President on Enviro.
Joint Tax Committee: Crude oil increased 10.1%
on BTU tax.
Coal
29.2%
(Mark)
Natural Gas
18.3%
President: Whst is net increase in revenue base?
Why bleed for $20 Billion tax that is 6% of operate deficit.
and less than 2% of total revenue
**
Reconcile numbers
DRAFT
ECONOMIC AND
BUDGET
BRIEFING IV
Ron Cogswald
EPA
395 -4806 people OMB
Rob Fairweather
stimulus
395 - 6827 package
I
28-Jan-93
04:27 PM
FY 1994 BUDGET
CURRENT STATUS
(in billions of dollars)
FY 1997
Target
Status
Deficit
225
224
Stimulus
N/A
+1
Investment
+63
+50
Deficit Reduction:
Defense
-23
-23
Non-Defense Discretionary
-30
-16
Entitlements
-50
-53
Revenues
-76
-75
Page 1
FY 1994 BUDGET CURRENT STATUS
01/28/93
(in billions of dollars)
04:30 PM
1994-97
1994-98
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Total
Total
Transition Baseline
326
302
293
305
357
390
1,257
1,647
CBO econ outlays
-2
-10
-24
-43
-58
-76
-136
-212
CBO econ lower receipts
7
20
32
39
58
92
149
240
Current Baseline
332
313
301
301
356
406
1,270
1,675
Proposals:
Spending Increases:
Stimulus
6
6
2
1
1
1
10
10
Investment
---
18
30
40
50
55
138
193
Spending Decreases:
Defense (target)
---
-4
-11
-18
-23
-28
-56
-84
Nondefense Discretionary
---
-4
-7
-12
-16
-19
-39
-58
Entitlements
---
-12
-24
-40
-53
-63
-129
-192
Page 2
Revenue Increases (target)
-18
-58
-67
-76
-83
-219
-302
Total Proposals
6
-14
-68
-96
-117
-136
-296
-432
Debt Service
*
_*
-3
-8
-15
-23
-25
-49
Total Deficit Change
6
-15
-71
-104
-132
-160
-321
-481
Deficit Change Targets
14
-23
-82
-110
-134
-160
-349
-509
Proposed Deficits
338
298
230
197
224
246
949
1,195
Original deficit targets
341
279
211
195
225
230
910
1,140
Debt Held by the Public:
Baseline
3,314
3,632
3,935
4,238
4,597
5,006
Proposed
3,321
3,624
3,856
4,055
4,282
4,532
Totals as a percent of GDP:
Proposed deficit change
0.1
-0.2
-1.0
-1.4
-1.7
-2.0
-1.1
-1.3
Proposed deficit
5.5
4.6
3.4
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.3
Baseline Debt
53.7
55.8
57.4
58.8
60.9
63.6
Proposed Debt
53.8
55.7
56.3
56.3
56.8
57.6
GDP
6,173
6,508
6,855
7,202
7,543
7,873
28,108
35,981
STIMULUS
28-Jan-93
03:58 PM
PROPOSED FY 1993 STIMULUS OPTIONS
(in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
BUDGET
TION
SELECTED STIMULUS OPTIONS
AUTHORITY OUTLAYS
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
450
Rural Development Administration: Wastewater loan level
(500)
N/A
Subsidy level
71
2
450
Rural Development Administration: Wastewater grants
200
4
300
Soil Conservation Service: Watershed & conservation
50
25
350
Agricultural Research Service: Facility enhanced maintenance
40
31
300
Forest Service maintenance
100
90
600
Food & Nutrition Service: Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)
supplemental feeding program
75
68
350
Food & Nutrition Service: The Emergency Food
Assistance Program (TEFAP)
25
25
Subtotal, Agriculture
561
245
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
300
DOD-Civil: Army Corps of Engineers
180
41
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
500
Summer 1993 pre-school & school programs
1,300
325
500
Disadvantaged student program
250
30
Subtotal, Education
1,550
355
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
270
Energy: Building and industrial conservation
20
10
? 2 why not slap.
1 is this the Federal Energy
Page 3
28-Jan-93
03:58 PM
PROPOSED FY 1993 STIMULUS OPTIONS
(in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
BUDGET
TION
SELECTED STIMULUS OPTIONS
AUTHORITY OUTLAYS
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES
500
Head Start
556
293
550
Immunization
212
148
550
AIDS: Ryan White Act
160
59
650
Social Security Admin.: Disability insurance (DI) processing
272
272
Subtotal, Health & Human Services
1,200
772
DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING & URBAN DEVELOPMENT
600
Accelerate home investment partnership
600
Accelerate public housing modernization
---
---
600
Community development block grants
2,000
520
Subtotal, Housing & Urban Development
2,000
520
DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
300
Maintenance of national parks and forests
150
135
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
500
Job Training Partnership Act: Summer youth employment
and training program
500
330
600
Extend unemployment compensation
3,100
3,100
Subtotal, Labor
3,600
3,430
Page 4
28-Jan-93
03:58 PM
PROPOSED FY 1993 STIMULUS OPTIONS
(in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
BUDGET
TION
SELECTED STIMULUS OPTIONS
AUTHORITY OUTLAYS
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
400
Federal-aid highway program
2,976
218
400
Mass transit
1,000
140
Subtotal, Transportation
3,976
358
DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
800
Treasury: Accelerate tax system modernization
158
111
OTHER AGENCIES
300
EPA: Cash for clunkers
350
175
800
GSA: Vehicle energy conversion
30
30
.~
370
SBA: 7(a) loan guarantee level
(2,700)
N/A
1
Subsidy level
150
45
Subtotal, Other Agencies
530
250
TOTALS:
Stimulus proposals
13,925
6,227
Loan levels
3,200
Less: subsidy BA
-221
---
TOTAL, Including loan levels
16,904
6,227
Page 5
INVESTMENT
28-Jan-93
INVESTMENT OPTIONS
03:52 PM
(outlays in millions of dollars)
1994-97
1997
Total
REBUILD AMERICA
Infrastructure
Federal-aid highway program
1,298
5,014
Mass transit
750
1,600
Other DOT funding
478
1,264
Public land highways and Indian reservation roads
169
368
Drinking water infrastructure
780
1,640
Rural water and waste loans and grants
209
435
Water resources development
1,200
2,945
Environmental infrastructure
363
1,309
Tree planting initiative
112
402
Energy efficiency in Federal buildings
192
495
Weather service modernization
47
346
Defense Conversion
Moderate defense conversion program
1,500
5,767
Low-Income Housing Credit
Permanent extension
1,097
2,387
Enterprise Zones
682
1,397
Community Development Banks
111
422
Housing
50% HOME/50% vouchers (150,000 units)
354
571
Other
Community development block grant (CDBG)
406
930
TOTAL, REBUILD AMERICA
9,748
27,292
Page 6
28-Jan-93
INVESTMENT OPTIONS
03:52 PM
(outlays in millions of dollars)
1994-97
1997
Total
LIFELONG LEARNING
Head Start
Program growth
2,628
5,987
Related Medicaid
193
404
Related child care feeding
273
636
WIC (Special supplemental food pro-
gram for women, infants, and children)
798
2,098
National Service
2,000
5,400
Youth Apprenticeship
530
1,394
Education Reform and Initiatives
3,025
6,845
Dislocated Worker Assistance Act
2,000
2,459
Parenting and Family Support
495
890
Other
Chapter 1 (Compensatory Education) supplemental
250
725
Job Corps: adopt "50-50 plan"
200
320
JTPA, Summer Youth Employment
and Training
500
1,830
TOTAL, LIFELONG LEARNING
12,892
28,988
PRIVATE SECTOR INCENTIVES
Investment Tax Credit - 5 percent
5,900
21,400
R&D Tax Credit
1,700
6,200
Mortgage Revenue Bond
256
666
Page 7
28-Jan-93
INVESTMENT OPTIONS
03:52 PM
(outlays in millions of dollars)
1994-97
1997
Total
Technology:
Federal Coordinating Council for
Science, Engineering, and Technology
1,815
4,248
Crosscutting NSF, NIH, NASA, & NIST
high performance computing
320
847
Environmental Technology
131
300
?
Other
National Research Initiative grants (Agriculture)
110
207
Forestry Research Initiative (Agriculture)
105
273
National Inst of Standards and Technology growth
396
970
Energy conservation and renewable
energy programs (Energy Policy Act)
420
1,020
Natural gas research and development;
?
Emphasize utilization
90
185
Advanced Neutron Source
243
437
Build Tokamak physics experiment
90
224
SBA 7(a) loan guarantees
161
569
National Science Foundation
850
2,689
NASA aeronautics research
242
641
Fully invest in IRS tax system
modernization including acceleration
696
1,873
Social Security Administration (automation)
245
980
TOTAL, PRIVATE SECTOR INCENTIVES
13,770
43,729
Page 8
28-Jan-93
INVESTMENT OPTIONS
03:52 PM
(outlays in millions of dollars)
1994-97
1997
Total
HEALTH CARE
AIDS, women's health, and other
public health initiatives:
Targeted growth
3,206
8,235
AIDS - Ryan White Act
394
1,028
Other
Substance abuse prevention and treatment
800
1,873
Food Stamps and nutrition assistance expansion
2,468
7,172
Social Security Administration (DI processing)
200
800
TOTAL, HEALTH CARE
7,068
19,108
REWARDING WORK
Expand EITC (earned income tax
credit):
Low range
2,500
4,700
Expand Welfare Reform
3,800
10,700
Other
Individual development accounts
434
1,474
Extend unemployment compensation
---
1,900
TOTAL, REWARDING WORK
6,734
18,774
TOTAL, ALL CATEGORIES
50,212
137,891
Page 9
DEFENSE
Defense Paths
Billions of Dollars
295
290
285
Page 10
280
275
Aspin C
270
$225A (1/3B)
265
$212 (50%B)
260
$225B (2/3B)
255
$190 (75%B)
250
Aspin B
245
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
NON-DEFENSE
DISCRETIONARY
NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
04:05 PM
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
150 Consolidate overseas broadcasting
-229
-641
150 Reduce security assistance
-997
-1,651
150 Phase-out defense acquisition fund
-138
-395
150 Reduce Export Import Bank credits
-197
-544
150 Moscow embassy building: Technical adjustment
-140
-344
Eliminate Enterprise for the Americas (EAI) Debt Restructuring:
150
Agency for International Development
-57
-217
150
P.L. 480
-46
-175
150 Eliminate contribution to MIF of EAI
-83
-197
Total, Function 150
-1,887
-4,164
GENERAL SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY
250 Reduce superconducting super collider
---
-172
250 Replace space station with technology investment
69
1,845
Total, Function 250
69
1,673
ENERGY
270 Uranium enrichment initiative
-386
-1,275
270 Assess foreign customers decommissioning and
decontamination fee (receipts)
-106
-397
270 Eliminate Rural Electrification Administration loan
subsidies
-161
-401
270 Eliminate unnecessary nuclear reactor R&D
-268
-820
Total, Function 270
-921
-2,893
Page 11
NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
04:05 PM
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
300 Below-cost timber sales
-28
-72
300 Reduce construction funding for water projects
-90
-400
300 Privatize superfund financing
-109
-308
300 Phaseout watewater except NAFTA
-1,795
-3,436
)
Total, Function 300
-2,022
-4,216
AGRICULTURE
350 Cooperative State Research Service (CSRS):
Earmarked grants
-43
-97
350 Eliminate CSRS facilities construction
-45
-87
350 Agriculture user fees
-16
-59
350 Agricultural Research Service: Facilities construction
-10
-24
350 Reduce agricultural research/extension 10%
-169
-577
350 Eliminate special extension grants
-14
-54
350 Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS)
-10
-35
350 Reduce ACIF farm loans 25%, replace
-10
-39
350 Implement one new Farm Service Organization
-307
-730
350 Reduce funding for Economic Research Service
-17
-60
Total, Function 350
-641
-1,762
COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT
370 SEC Registration Fees
-54
-203
370 SBA Earmarked Grants
-114
-335
370 Reduce 7(a) business loan subsidies
-130
-459
Page 12
NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
04:05 PM
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
370 Reduce Export Administration by 15%
-8
-30
370 Cut multi-family housing/replace with vouchers
-136
-416
Total, Function 370
-442
-1,443
TRANSPORTATION
400 Highway demonstrations (appropriated)
-329
-863
400 Airport Improvement (AIP): Reduce
-250
-505
400 Eliminate Interstate Commerce Commission
-29
-92
Total, Function 400
-608
-1,460
EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES
500 Reduce campus aid
-305
-777
500 Stop growth of 1993 Pell Grant shortfall
---
-456
500 Eliminate "b" impact aid
-150
-419
500 Eliminate selected small programs
-202
-572
500 Freeze Arts and Humanities
-128
-274
Total, Function 500
-785
-2,498
HEALTH
550 Eliminate most health training
-27
-87
550
FDA user fees
-336
-1,018
550 Meat/Poultry fees - 100% of overtime
-104
-416
Total, Function 550
-467
-1,521
Page 13
NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
04:05 PM
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
INCOME SECURITY
600 Eliminate individual HUD grants
-278
-565
600 Reduce HUD HOPE grants
-158
-291
600
Modify fees for Federal housing
-193
-454
600 Shift public/Indian new construction to HOME
38
180
600 Shift all HUD new construction to HOME
548
1,277
Total, Function 600
-43
147
VETERAN BENEFITS AND SERVICES
700 Cut Veterans Affairs construction
-137
-286
700 Improve management of VA hospitals
-400
-1,000
700
Reduce beneficiary travel
-77
-289
700
Reallocate nurse staff
-49
-161
700 Adhere to out-patient eligibility
-59
-199
Total, Function 700
-722
-1,935
ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE
750 Reduce prison construction
-181
-331
750 Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF)
user fee
-5
-20
750 Reduce U.S. Customs, Drug Enforcement Administration
25% - U.S. Customs
-21
-78
750 Reduce U.S. Customs, DEA 25% - DEA
-25
-87
Total, Function 750
-232
-516
Page 14
NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
04:05 PM
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
ALLOWANCES
920
Termination of commissions
-11
-36
920
Cut White House staff
-11
-42
920
Cut Congressional staff
-123
-460
920 Pay:
Adjust baseline to reflect current law pay raises
1,230
2,380
Pay raise minus 1 for four years
-2,260
-5,230
920 Reduce budgets for FTS 2000 price reduction
-98
-374
920 Adminstrative Efficiencies: Cut 100,000 Federal
employees and other administrative savings:
Non-defense
-6,172
-14,920
Defense
(-4,242)
(-10,265)
Total, Function 920
-7,445
-18,682
Total, ALL FUNCTIONS
-16,146
-39,270
Page 15
ENTITLEMENTS
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
ENERGY
270 Power Marketing Administration (PMA): Debt
repayment reform receipts
-292
-1,165
270 PMA: Market incentives for conservation
-223
-520
270
Index nuclear waste fee
-53
-105
270 Raise nuclear waste fee and index fee
-99
-396
Total, Function 270
-667
-2,186
NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
300 Conservation reserve: no new acres
-178
-331
300
Inland Waterway user fee phase-in
-325
-685
300
Increase grazing fees
-35
-76
300
Federal irrigation water
-15
-45
300
Recreation fees
-67
-253
300
Increase hardrock mining claims
-80
-240
300
50% net receipt sharing (minerals)
-45
-170
Total, Function 300
-745
-1,800
AGRICULTURE
350 Eliminate Cooperative State Research Service
(Morrill-Nelson permanent appropriation)
-3
-12
350
Eliminate honey program
-7
-43
350 Total income over $100,000 (means-test
farm subsidies)
-300
-1,050
350 Limit Commodity Credit Corporation income-
Page 16
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
support payments to $50,000 per year
-213
-810
350 Reduce market promotion program to
FY 1993 level
-52
-208
350 Increase non-eligible payment acres
starting in FY 1996
-720
-1,030
350 Eliminate 0/92 & 50/92 (PAY/92) programs
starting in FY 1996
-664
-937
350
Increase assessments on "non-program" crops
starting FY 1996
-450
-900
350 Limit payments on wool and mohair to
$50 thousand per person
-66
-212
350 Reform disaster payments
---
---
350 Reform crop insurance program
through area-yield
-255
-739
Total, Function 350
-2,730
-5,941
COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT
370 Assess examination fees for State-chartered,
FDIC-insured banks
-367
-1,386
370 Extend patent and trademark fees
-115
-226
370 Government National Mortgage Association: Real
estate mortgage insurance conduits
-30
-120
370 Limit Federal Housing Administration closing costs
(Phase-in to 57%)
-81
-253
Page 17
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
370
Commodity Futures Trading Commission fees
-63
-235
370
Securities and Exchange Commission
registration fee
-50
-188
Total, Function 370
-706
-2,408
TRANSPORTATION
400
Recreational decal/charge for rescue
-33
-125
400
Continue tonnage fees
-65
-130
400
Peak period pricing
-92
-368
400
Increase fees on general aviation aircraft
-138
-505
Total, Function 400
-328
-1,128
EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES
500
Direct student loans
-1,157
-2,211
500
State default fee
-146
-511
Total, Function 500
-1,303
-2,722
HEALTH
550 Federal Employees Health Benefits: Medicare
rates over-65
-66
-210
550 Federal Employees Heatth Benefits: Phase-in
retiree copayments
-190
-415
550 Medicaid: Survey and certification user fees
-113
-413
Page 18
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
550 Third party liability: Enhanced collections
(includes Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Affairs,
Indian Health Service, Defense Department)
-400
-800
Total, Function 550
-769
-1,838
MEDICARE
Extenders:
570 10% capital reduction, Prospective Payment System
neutral
-1,060
-1,950
570 Internal Revenue Service/Social Security
Administration/Health Care Financing Administration
data match
-538
-953
570 Medicare secondary payer (MSP) for the disabled
-780
-1,380
570 MSP for end stage renal disease after 18 months
-56
-96
570 Payments for hospital outpatient services
-950
-1,760
570 Maintain Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI)
premium at 25% of costs
-2,055
-2,055
570 Pay hospitals for inpatient services by hospital-
based physicians
-725
-2,015
570 Outpatient payment reform (Part B) - Hospitals
-1,000
-2,650
570 Put hospitals on current year update
-1,305
-4,475
570 Phase-in lower IME to 3.2% - Hospitals
-3,834
-9,211
570 Set laboratory rates at market levels -
Administration
-1,150
-3,010
570 Eliminate skilled nursing facility return on equity
payments
-135
-480
570 Set durable medical equipment rates at market
levels
-290
-600
Page 19
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
570 Set intraocular lenses reimbursement at competitive
rates ($100) - Administration
-70
-255
570 Set erythropoitin (EPO) at non-U.S. market rates
($10 per 1000 units) - Administration
-30
-100
570 Three-month Part B freeze (CBO)
-1,200
-3,400
570 30% coinsurance when Medigap pays some
beneficiaries
-3,000
-9,350
570
Discount for interactions
2,832
6,806
Total, Function 570
-15,346
-36,934
RETIREMENT
600
End lump-sum benefit
-3,032
-5,132
600 Fee for State SSI administration
-190
-540
600 Fees for child support enforcement
-80
-225
600 Equate matching rates for welfare program:
Deficit neutral proposal
---
---
Total, Function 600
-3,302
-5,897
SOCIAL SECURITY
Option 1:
Delay cost-of-living-adjustments (COLA) for 6 months:
650
Social Security/Railroad
-6,500
-23,500
650
Other non-means tested
-1,300
-4,900
650
Offsets
400
1,000
650
Total
-7,400
-27,400
Page 20
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
Option 2:
COLA at CPI minus 1 for four years:
650
Social Security/Railroad
-12,400
-28,700
650
Other non-means tested
-2,700
-6,300
650
Offsets
600
1,300
650
Total
-14,500
-33,700
Option 3:
Delay COLAs for 3 months:
650
Social Security/Railroad
-3,200
-11,600
650
Other non-means tested
-654
-2,432
650
Offsets
???
???
650
Total
-3,854
-14,032
650
Retain Social Security threshold and tax 85%
-6,900
-21,400
Total, Function 650
With Social Security/Federal Pay Option 2
-21,400
-55,100
VETERANS BENEFITS AND SERVICES
700
Housing loan fees 2%
-146
-574
700 Veterans pensions-medicaid nursing homes
---
---
700 Pension income through Internal Revenue Service
---
---
700
Readjustment benefits
-135
-436
700
Medical care costs recovery
-407
-1,170
700
Prescription charge/co-payment
---
---
700 VA housing down-payment
-17
-68
Page 21
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
700 Resale losses on loans
-21
-80
700 Insurance administration from reserve
-31
-113
Total, Function 700
-757
-2,441
ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE
750 Extend U.S. Customs merchandise and
passenger processing fees
-579
-1,143
750 U.S. Customs overtime reform
-18
-72
Total, Function 750
-597
-1,215
GENERAL GOVERNMENT
800 Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands
funding agreement
-10
-31
Total, Function 800
-10
-31
NET INTEREST
900 Shorten debt securities
-2,300
-5,300
Total, Function 900
-2,300
-5,300
Page 22
04:26 PM
PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS
28-Jan-93
(outlays in millions of dollars)
FUNC-
1994-97
TION
SAVINGS OPTIONS
1997
Total
UNDISTRIBUTED OFFSETTING RECEIPTS
950 Auction Federal Communications Commission
spectrum
-2,083
-4,072
Total, Function 950
-2,083 -4,072
Total, ALL FUNCTIONS
With Social Security/Federal Pay Option 2
-53,043 -129,013
Page 23
REVENUES
26-Jan-93
11:26 AM
EFFECT OF POSSIBLE REVENUE PACKAGE ON RECEIPTS
(in billions of dollars)
1994-97
1994-98
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Total
Total
Increase top individual income tax rate to 36%
4.2
12.1
11.3
12.1
12.0
39.7
51.7
10% income tax surcharge on income greater
than $1 million
0.6
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
6.4
8.5
Extend phase-out of personal exemption
and itemized deductions
---
---
2.3
6.6
8.9
8.9
17.8
Increase AMT rate to 28%
0.4
2.8
2.6
3.0
4.6
8.8
13.4
Repeal HI taxable wage base
2.6
5.6
6.0
6.5
7.1
20.7
27.8
Page 24
Increase top corporation income tax rate to 36%.
3.4
5.6
5.6
5.8
6.2
20.4
26.6
Broad based energy tax
...
16.8
20.8
21.9
22.8
59.5
82.3
Extend 2.5 cent per gallon gas tax
---
---
2.4
2.6
2.7
5.0
7.7
Increase "sin" taxes
3.5
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.1
18.0
23.1
Phase out possessions tax credit (sec. 936)
over 5 years
0.4
1.1
1.8
2.5
3.2
5.8
9.0
Restrict deduction for business meals and
entertainment to 50%
1.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
11.9
15.5
Modify limits on pension contributions
0.4
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
4.5
6.0
Miscellaneous (foreign tax, market-to market,
moving expense deduction, extend 55% estate
& gift rate, etc.)
0.9
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.0
6.4
8.4
TOTAL
18.0
56.8
66.2
75.0
81.8
216.0
297.8
AD HOC ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING
Friday, January 29, 1993 - 10:30 a.m. - Room 476 OEOB
Representative
Room
Phone
Fax
OMB - Randy Lyon
9002 NEOB
395-5800
395-1151
Kathy Peroff
8001 NEOB
395-3404
395-4817
Treasury -
John Parcell
1064
622-2578
622-1772
James Nunns
4043
622-1328
622-0236
Sam Sessions
3108
622-0130
622-0281
Norm Richter
3127
622-0586
622-0281
VP - Katie McGinty
286 OEOB
456-6224
456-6231
Greg Simon
288 OEOB
456-6222
456-6231
CEA - Ray Squitieri
317 OEOB
395-6982
395-6947
DOE - Richard Rosenzweig
7A-257
586-6210
586-7644
EPA - Richard Morgenstern
1215 West
Tower
260-4711
260-4852
Jonathan Fox
1204 West
Tower
260-7960
260-3684
NEC - Heather Ross
227 OEOB
456-7988
456-7739
Bo Cutter
231 OEOB
456-6630
456-7739