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FOIA Number: 2012-0769-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff. Collection/Record Group: Clinton Presidential Records Subgroup/Office of Origin: Council on Environmental Quality Series/Staff Member: Kathleen (Katie) McGinty Subseries: OA/ID Number: 2892 FolderID: Folder Title: Econ E - Energy Working Group - Minutes Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: S 61 5 11 2 January 30, 1993 FAX COVER SHEET TO: OMB [Randy Lyon, Kathy Peroff, Gary Bennenthum, Jim Mietus] Treasury [John Parcell, James Nunns, Sam Sessions, Norm Richter] CEA [Ray Squitieri] DOE Richard Rosenzweig] EPA Dick Morgenstern, Chuck Fox] NEC [Heather Ross, Bo Cutter] FROM: Katie McGinty PAGE: 1 of x 4 *Please distribute to other proticipants from your organization iza Politics of BTU and Ad Valorem Energy Taxes January 30, 1993 This memo gives some general observations on the politics of three types of energy taxes: BTU taxes, ad valorem energy taxes at the primary level (minemouth, wellhead, etc.), and ad valorem energy taxes at the point of delivery. The focus is on how these taxes affect coal, oil, and gas producers. These effects will likely determine the politics of the debate over energy taxes in Congress and among the States. One important distinction to keep in mind concerns the price increases such taxes will cause. The price of coal is less than 1/3 the price of oil in dollars per BTU, with natural gas in between. By definition, a BTU tax causes equal tax increases for the 3 fuels measured in dollars per BTU. However, the percentage price increases for the 3 fuels will vary significantly. Conversely, an ad valorem tax causes an equal tax increases measured in percentage terms. However, the price increases in dollars per BTU will vary significantly. Proponents of various fuels will cite "unfair" price increases and will focus on dollar increases or percentage increases as it suits their purposes. EFFECT ON COAL PRODUCERS A BTU tax hits coal the heaviest of the 3 taxes in percentage terms. A BTU tax raising $20 billion might raise delivered coal prices by 17%, compared to increases of 3% and 7% for oil and gas respectively. Is this sense, a BTU is similar to, but not as harsh as a carbon tax. Some environmentalists realize this connection and view a BTU tax as a reasonable second choice to a carbon tax. Coal producers would prefer ad valorem taxes to BTU taxes. Western coal producers would prefer ad valorem at the minemouth because their minemouth prices are very low, hence the tax would be low. Their delivered coal prices are much higher because of long-haul, high transportation costs. Eastern coal producers would take the opposite view. They would support ad valorem at point of delivery in order preserve the existing competitive relationships between Western and Eastern coal. The DRI economic model predicts that ad valorem at the primary level can result in an increase in coal use, a negative from the environmental perspective. For this reason, environmentalists would strongly oppose a primary level ad valorem tax. EFFECT ON OIL PRODUCERS - 2 - Oil producers face a smaller percentage increase in price under a BTU tax than either natural gas or coal producers. They therefore prefer a BTU tax to either of the ad valorem tax options. Consumers in regions such as the Northeast who are most dependent on oil and least dependent on coal would be most supportive of a BTU tax, while consumers in Midwestern states, who depend primarily on coal, would oppose the BTU tax option. EFFECT ON NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS Natural gas producers are most concerned with competing with oil in the fuel market, and would consider themselves to be better off under an ad valorem than a BTU tax. This is because an ad valorem tax would lead to a smaller increase in the price of natural gas than would a BTU tax. However, because gas is so much cheaper than oil on a BTU basis, an equal-cents-per-BTU tax will have little effect on market share and its competitive position will not be impaired. Their concerns are almost certainly exaggerated, but they likely will voice a preference for the ad valorem option. GENERAL COMMENTS As a general rule, the smallest tax on the broadest tax base will ruffle the fewest political feathers. Among these three tax proposals, ad valorem at the point of delivery has the broadest base: it applies to "raw" energy costs plus all processing and distribution costs. The corollary is that it changes behavior (in terms of the selection of fuels) the least. As to the reaction of various interest groups: Environmentalists: Prefer a BTU tax. However, at the lower levels ($20 billion) they will not accept the tax as an environmental initiative because it will not likely induce fuel switching away from coal. May support a point of delivery ad valorem tax to the extent that it could lead to greater energy efficiency. Will oppose an ad valorem tax imposed at point of production because of possible fuel switching to coal. Auto industry: Have supported a gas tax. Would support any of these options to a lesser degree than a gas tax because it will increase their costs. The Big Three have, however, indicated some willingness to support a broader based tax. They will likely try to tie their support to some commitment that CAFE not be increased. Western Coal Producing States: Prefer ad valorem tax imposed at the point of production. Eastern Coal Producing States: Prefer a point of delivery ad valorem tax. - 3 - The Northeast States: Primarily use oil. Therefore, prefer BTU tax. The Midwestern States: Primarily use coal. Therefore, prefer the ad valorem options. Difficult to predict which type of ad valorem would be preferable because these states also produce coal. The Pacific Northwest and California: Use little coal; depend primarily on nuclear and natural gas. Would likely prefer a BTU tax. The Southern States: Mixed dependence on coal and natural gas. Difficult to predict the preference of these states as a region. Texas and Louisiana use natural gas and on that basis could be expected to prefer an ad valorem tax. However, because these states also produce oil, there could be a preference for a BTU tax (of course, these states would primarily prefer an oil import fee). Energy Intensive Industries: Difficult to predict. Some are very electric intensive; others burn fossil fuel for industrial heat. ****DISCLAIMER: Interest group representatives have not been polled in reaching these assessments. Rather, predicted preferences are based on primary fuel use and the likely reaction of the producers of those fuels (discussed in the first portion of this memorandum). January 30, 1993 TO: FROM: gol RE: Politics of Energy Taxes This memo gives some general observations on the politics of three types of energy taxes: BTU taxes, ad valorem energy taxes at the primary level (minemouth, wellhead, etc.), and ad valorem energy taxes at the point of delivery. The focus is on how these taxes affect coal, oil, and gas producers. These effects will likely determine the politics of the debate over energy taxes in Congress and among the States. One important distinction to keep in mind concerns the price increases such taxes will cause. The price of coal is less than 1/3 the price of oil in dollars per BTU, with natural gas in between. By definition, a BTU tax causes equal tax increases for the 3 fuels measured in dollars per BTU. However, the percentage price increases for the 3 fuels will vary significantly. Conversely, an ad valorem tax causes an equal tax increases measured in percentage terms. However, the price increases in dollars per BTU will vary significantly. Proponents of various fuels will cite "unfair" price increases and will focus on dollar increases or percentage increases as it suits their purposes. EFFECT ON COAL PRODUCERS A BTU tax hits coal the heaviest of the 3 taxes in percentage terms. A BTU tax raising $20 billion might raise delivered coal prices by 17%, compared to increases of 3% and 7% for oil and gas respectively. Is this sense, a BTU is similar to, but not as harsh as a carbon tax. Some environmentalists realize this connection and view a BTU tax as a reasonable second choice to a carbon tax. Coal producers would prefer ad valorem taxes to BTU taxes. Western coal producers would prefer ad valorem at the minemouth because their minemouth prices are very low, hence the tax would be low. Their delivered coal prices are much higher because of long-haul, high transportation costs. Eastern coal producers would take the opposite view. They would support ad valorem at point of delivery in order preserve the existing competitive relationships between Western and Eastern coal. The DRI economic model predicts that ad valorem at the primary level can result in an increase in coal use, a negative from the environmental perspective. enrors they truckers nuke mall intradure copress which the Northeast , tates studes will will part in Wesden mislerent which ways Ex Souther states arts 1 the you might - 2 - spell one hecord of you been EFFECT ON OIL PRODUCERS relatives high Oil producers bear the smallest burden under a BTU tax. Their biggest concern is their competitive position vis-a-vis natural gas. A BTU tax is best at preserving that. Consumers in regions most dependent on oil and least dependent on coal (such as the Northeast) would be most supportive of a BTU tax (and vice- versa for the Midwest) EFFECT ON NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS Natural gas producers are similarly most concerned with competing with oil in the fuel market, and are best off under an ad valorem tax. They would be somewhat worse off under a BTU tax, but their competitive position would be virtually unchanged. Gas is so much cheaper than oil on a BTU basis that an equal-cents- per-BTU tax will have little affect on market share. Their concerns may be exaggerated, but their voices will be heard. GENERAL COMMENTS As a general rule, the smallest tax on the broadest tax base will ruffle the fewest political feathers. Among these three tax proposals, ad valorem at the point of delivery has the broadest base: it applies to "raw" energy costs plus all processing and distribution costs. The corollary is that it changes behavior the least. 01/29/93 15:02 202 456 7739 WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 001/004 Date: 1-29-93 Time: : THE WHITE HOUSE PHOTOCOPY PRESERVATION FAX COVER SHEET TO: Katie mc Ginty Phone: (_) 456-6224 FAX: ( ) 456-6231 FROM: Heather Ross Phone: (202) 456- 7988 Pages following cover sheet = 3 01/29/93 15:02 202 456 7739 WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 002/004 TO: ECONe - Energy Working Group FROM: Heather Ross PHOTOCOPY DATE: January 29, 1993 PRESERVATION SUBJECT: Next Steps Agreement this morning to produce factual reports as follows: A. Modelling (Dick Morgenstern) Tax alternatives 1. BTU 2. Ad valorem - at source 3. Ad valorem - end use 4. Carbon 5. Gasoline 6. Oil import fee assuming 2.5c/gasoline tax extension in baseline. Levels: 1. Net revenue = $22 billion, fully phased in. 2. Net revenue = $40 billion, fully phased in, with $18 billion income tax give back (modelled as per capita refundable credit, with whatever further insights EPA can offer about alternatives) Phasing: Linear over four years, 1/1/94 - 1/1/97 Tax base: BTU and ad valorem - all energy. (Technicals to decide non-fossil equivalence; policy discussion about renewables left to later) Carbon - fossil fuels (all variants net out non-fuel uses) Results: 1997 revenues; 2000 impacts, including: GNP energy consumption, domestic production; fuel shares oil imports price changes: at source, retail regional effects: prices and incomes distributional effects: income and consumption classes* 01/29/93 15:03 202 456 7739 WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 4 003/004 industry impacts: domestic incidence, international competitiveness *EPA to evaluate regressivity mitigation measures, where readily available Technicals (not in Somalia sense) to work out exact product content and format to meet heroic timeframe. Focus on BTU and ad valorem (2); others for comparison. Desire expressed for text as well as tables/charts. B. Administrative considerations (John Parcell) cost, complexity, visibility, enforceability, public receptivity C. Political considerations (Katie McGinty, Rich Rosenzweig) campaign, Hill, state and local government, industry, public Reports A, B and C due Sunday, January 30, 5:00 p.m. by fax to all participants (See attached) Meeting Monday, February 1, 2:00 p.m., Room 472 OEOB to discuss reports and any further supporting work, and to outline decision memo. CC: BO Cutter PHOTOCOPY PRESERVATION 01/29/93 15:03 202 456 7739 WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 004/004 AD HOC ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING Friday, January 29, 1993 - 10:30 a.m. - Room 476 OEOB tome Representative Room Phone Fax 01-320-3763 OMB - Randy Lyon 9002 NEOB 395-5800 395-1151 Kathy Peroff 8001 NEOB 395-3404 395-4817 +10-956-4078 Gary Bennethum 8013 NEOB 395-3634 395-3165 703-759-3007 Jim Mietus 8013 NEOB 395-3183 395-3165 Treasury - 103-243-2078 John Parcell 1064 622-2578 622-1772 703-522-6510 James Nunns 4043 622-1328 622-0236 Sam Sessions 3108 622-0130 622-0281 103-527-1150 Norm Richter 3127 622-0586 622-0281 202-547-1090 VP - Katie McGinty 286 OEOB 456-6224 456-6231 Greg Simon 288 OEOB 456-6222 456-6231 301-913-0252 CEA - Ray Squitieri 317 OEOB 395-6982 395-6947 103-824-0254 DOE - Richard Rosenzweig 7A-257 586-6210 586-7644 202-544-7731 EPA - Richard Morgenstern 1215 West Tower 260-4711 260-4852 chuck 202-546-9208 Jonathan Fox 1204 West Tower 260-7960 260-3684 202-966-6646 NEC - Heather Ross 227 OEOB 456-7988 456-7739 Bo Cutter 231 OEOB 456-6630 456-7739 PHOTOCOPY PRESERVATION SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 :11:51AM ; HON. JACK REED 94566216;# 2 218 D STREET. S.E. NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003 MIDWEST TEL: (202) 546-5200 FAX: (202) 544-0043 INSTITUTE THE CENTER FOR REGIONAL POLICY State-by-State Impacts of Energy Tax Alternatives by Diane De Vaul Northeast-Midwest Institute 218 D Street, S.E. Washington, D.C. 20003 FYI from Johnathan N 201637-2201 202/637- SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 :11:51AM ; HON. JACK REED-> 94566216;# 3 Overview The Clinton Administration is considering a variety of energy tax alternatives. The accompanying tables show the state-by-state implications of four different approaches: an oil import fee, a gasoline tax, a BTU tax and a carbon tax. To allow for consistent comparisons, the tables assume that each tax option will raise $5 billion in federal tax revenue. Achieving such a revenue goal requires a $1.71 per-barrel oil import fee; a 4.5 cent per-gallon gasoline tax; a BTU tax of $61,613.69 per trillion BTUs; and a carbon tax of $86.763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal consumed, $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of gas consumed, and $71,516.47 per trillion BTUs of oil consumed. Several explanatory notes: Although an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel would provide $5 billion of federal tax revenue, it would cost American consumers $10.6 billion because the price of domestically produced oil also would rise. wey? Table 2 compares the per-household cost for each of the four energy tax alternatives. As an example, for the federal government to raise $5 billion in energy tax revenues, the average Connecticut household would pay an extra $106 per year for an oil import fee, $48 for a gasoline tax. $37 for a BTU tax, and $31 for a carbon tax. Table 3 compares each state's share of the total costs for each tax option. Consider Connecticut again as an example. The state has 1.32 percent of the nation's population. It would pay 1.99 percent of the total cost of an oil import fee, 1.17 percent of the total cost for a gasoline tax, 0.90 percent of the total cost for a BTU tax, and 0.76 percent of the total cost for a carbon tax. Tables 4-6 provide the same data on total costs per state, per-household costs, and state shares, but they exclude the industrial sector. Some analysts argue that excluding the industrial sector provides a more accurate picture of the cost impacts of energy taxes because the preponderance of the chemical and refining industries, which consume massive amounts of energy, are located only in a few states. specifically Texas and Louisiana. These analysts conclude. moreover. that including the industrial sector skews the state-by-state impacts as the chemical and refining industries pass on any higher taxes ID consumers throughout the country. To understand the impact of other energy tax levels. the reader simply can multiply the presented numbers by, the appropriate factor. An energy tax that would provide the federal government with S50 billion in tax revenue, for instance. would cost ten times more than the charts show: an oil import fee raising $50 billion in federal tax revenue, therefore. would cost Connecticut consumers $1,183,491,000, or $1.060 per household in the state. SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 ;11:52AM ; HON. JACK REED- 94566216;# 4 Table 1. Cost of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion¹ (in dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of OU Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee' Tax' Tax Tax New England Connecticut 129,852,270 58,608,111 45,107,382 37,892,004 Maine 72,136,350 26,600,730 22,378,092 17.903.767 Massachusetts 237,332,610 105,465,765 82,636,281 79,120,669 New Hampshire 47,505,510 22,167,275 14,965,965 14,426,724 Rhode Island 30,750,930 16.508,312 11.996,185 8,790,790 Vermont 22,130,820 12,615,522 7,800,293 5,247,022 Total 539,708.490 241,965,715 184,884,200 163,380.975 Mid-Atlantic Delaware 40,318,380 15,066,538 14,510,024 16,611,026 Maryland 154,312,110 89,245,808 74,811,342 69,444,055 New Jersey 369,816,570 147,493,476 139,253,101 114,613,277 New York 536,382.540 262,006,373 220,817,304 200,697,655 Pennsylvania 393.226,470 202.316,931 219,991,680 248,797,530 Total 1,494,056,070 716,129,126 669,383,451 650,163,542 Midwest Illinois 387,217,530 228,016,552 217,798,233 200,107,446 Indiana 260,739,090 116,567,425 150.405.179 200,744,959 Town 98,665,290 59,653,398 55,403,030 61,424,700 Michigan 288,418,860 188,079,413 168,421,022 173,267,968 Minnesota 155,527,920 89,894,606 81,182,198 77,939,849 Ohio 350.849,250 208.011,938 227.853,587 241.638,260 Wisconsin 150,486,840 91.841,001 84.133,494 83,623,667 Total 1,691,904,780 982,064,333 985,196,742 1,038,746,848 South Alabama 165,138,120 92,633,977 96,850,559 109,047,700 Arkansas 88,675,470 54,571,144 48,163,421 49,885,281 District of Columbia 11,445,030 7,605,358 10,449,682 4,244,630 Florida 484,078,770 267,989,735 188,494,762 183,561,400 Georgia 260,036,280 156,540,608 127,774,470 137,234,265 Kentucky 159,939,720 81,027.697 89,592,467 115,658,617 Louisiana 457,259,130 82,757,825 215,259,749 201,146,831 Mississippi 124,128,900 54.751,366 $7,688,898 50,121,684 North Carolina 232.443.720 145,943,569 120.023.168 106,474,631 Oklahoma 135,508,950 74.143.226 83,320.193 85,732,568 South Carolina 127,562,580 81,460,229 73,548,262 60.621,282 Tehnessee 183,315,420 109,178,333 108,002,637 105,289.309 Texas 1,534,070,070 386,683,776 603,623,160 619,460.251 Virginia 234,654,750 132,390,894 113,196.671 92,060.649 West Virginia 91,691,910 36,981,502 49,679,118 102,999,004 Total 4,289,948.820 1,764,659,238 1,985,667,517 2,023,538,105 SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 11:52AM : ; HON. JACK REED 94566216;# 5 Table 1. Cost of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion' (continued) (in dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of OII Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee' Tax Tax Tax' West Alaska 70,200,630 11,029,571 35,834,522 33,830,994 Arizona 110,329,200 74,035,093 56,456,624 61,194,685 California 1,096,498,170 576,024,741 450,211,233 353.946,344 Colorado 103,506,300 66,934,356 56,265,622 63,823,769 Howali 85,999,320 16,328,090 18,422,493 21,263,299 Idaho 37,406,250 21,554,521 22,963,422 11,790,343 Kansas 133,593.750 53,886,302 63,474,423 70,138,855 Missouri 196,051,500 120,460,214 90,929,484 102,929,193 Montana 45,451,800 19,427,904 20,831,589 27,109,317 Nebraska 64,574.730 34,746,752 31,293,593 32,279,740 Novada 53,923.140 28,114,592 24,127,921 29,944,782 New Mexico 73,499,220 35,107,196 36,783.373 52,145,093 North Dakota 34,165,800 15,354,893 18,903,080 41,965,213 Oregon 109,192,050 59,725,486 57,165,182 32,279,667 South Dakota 34,819,020 16,904,800 12,550,709 11,630,938 Utah 60,581,880 31,466,717 33,450,072 52,015,492 Washington 239,333,310 100,635,822 120,337.698 72,099,566 Wyoming 38,627,190 13,372,453 24,540,733 53.776,213 Total 2,587,753,260 1,295,109.504 1.174,541,772 1,124,163,501 Northeast 2,033,764,560 958,094,841 834.267,650 813,544,518 Midwest 1,691,904,780 982,064,333 985,196,742 1,038,746,848 Northeast and Midwest 3,725,669,340 1,940,159,174 1,839,464,392 1.852.291,366 South 4,289,948,820 1,764,659,238 1,985,667,517 2,023,538,105 West 2,587,753,260 1,295,109.504 1,174,541,772 1,124,163,501 South and Weat 6,877,702,080 3,059,768.742 3,160,209,290 3,147,701,606 U.S. Total 10,603,371,420. 4,999,927,916 4,999,673.682 4,999,992,972 Goal is $5 billion in federal tax revenue. Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel. Based on an increase of 1.5 cents per gallon. Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU. Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of cont used; $49,371.78 per trillion BTU: of natural gns used: and $71,516.47 per trillion BTUs of petroleum used. SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on U.S. Department of Energy. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume / (Washington, D.C.. May 1991), p. 15; State Energy Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington, D.C., May 1992). pp. 31 and 34; and carbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin. "Unlted States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide to the Barth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity," in Energy Systems and Policy. Volume 14 (London: Taylor and Francis, 1991), PP- 319-336. SENT BY CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 ;11:52AM ; HON. JACK REED-> 94566216;# 6 Table 2 Cost to Households of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion¹ (in dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of Oil Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee' Tax Tax4 Tax New England Connecticut 106 48 37 31 Maine 155 57 48 39 Massachusetts 106 47 37 35 Now Hampshire 116 54 36 35 Rhode Island 81 44 32 23 Vermont 105 60 37 25 Total 109 49 37 33 Mid-Atlantie Delaware 163 61 59 67 Maryland as 51 43 40 New Jersey 132 53 50 41 New York 81 39 33 30 Pennsylvania 87 45 49 55 Total 94 45 42 d1 Midwest Illinois 92 $4 $2 48 Indiana 126 56 73 97 Inwa 93 56 52 58 Michigan 84 $5 49 31 Minnesota 94 55 49 47 Ohio 86 51 56 59 Wisconsin 83 so 46 46 Total 92 S4 54 57 South Alabama 110 61 64 72 Arkansas 100 61 54 56 District of Columbia 46 30 42 17 Florida 94 52 37 36 Georgia 110 66 54 58 Kentucky 116 59 65 84 Louisiana 305 55 144 134 Mississippi 136 60 63 SS North Carolina 92 58 48 42 Oklahoma 112 61 69 71 South Carolina 101 65 58 48 Tennessee 99 59 58 57 Texas 253 64 99 102 Virginia 102 58 49 40 West Virginia 133 54 72 149 Total 144 59 67 68 SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 11:53AM ; HON. JACK REED 94566216;# 7 Table 2 Cost to Households of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion' (continued) (in dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of OII Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee2 Tax' Tax' Tax West Alaska 371 58 190 179 Arizona 81 54 41 45 California 106 55 43 34 Colorado 81 52 44 SD Hawaii 242 46 52 60 Idaho 104 60 64 33 Kansas 141 57 67 74 Missouri 100 61 46 52 Montana 149 63 68 89 Nebraska 107 58 52 54 Novada 116 60 52 64 New Mexico 135 65 68 96 North Dakota 142 64 78 174 Oregon 99 54 52 29 South Dakota 134 65 48 4S Utah 113 59 62 97 Washington 128 54 64 39 Wyoming 229 79 145 318 Total 113 56 51 49 Northeast 97 46 41 39 Midwest 92 54 54 57 Northeast and Midwest 95 50 47 47 South 144 59 67 68 West 113 56 51 49 South and Went 130 58 60 60 U.S. Total 115 S4 54 54 'Goal is $5 billion in federal tax revenue. Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel. Based on an increase of 4.5 cents per gallon. Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU. Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gas used; and 571515.27 per trillion B TUs of petroleum used. SOURCE: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on households by state from U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1992 (Washington, D.C., 1992). p. 49: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Petrolation Supply Annual 1990: Volume I (Washington, D.C., May 1991). P. 15; State Emerge Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington, D.C., May 1992). PP. 31 and 34: and earbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin, "United States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide to the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity," in Energy Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (Landon: Taylor and Francis. 1991). PP. 319-336. SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 ;11:53AM ; HON. JACK REED 94566216:# 8 Table 3. State Shares of Costs Produced by Four Energy Tax Options1 (in percent of U.S. total) Portion of Share Share of Share of Share of U.S. of OII Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Population Import Fee' Tar' Tax4 Tax' New England Connecticut 1.32 1.22 1.17 0.90 0.76 Malue 0.49 0.68 0.53 0.45 0.36 Massachusetts 2.42 224 2.11 1.65 158 New Hampshire 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.30 0.29 Rhode Island 0.40 0.29 0.33 0.24 0.18 Vermont 0.23 0.21 0.25 0.16 0.10 Total 9.31 5.09 4.84 3.70 3.27 Mid-Atlantic Delaware 0.27 0.38 0.30 0.29 0.33 Maryland 1.92 1.46 1.78 1.50 1.39 New Jersey 3.11 3.49 2.95 2.79 2.29 New York 7.23 5.06 5.24 4.42 4.01 Pennsylvania 4.78 3.71 4.03 4.40 4.98 Total 17.31 14.09 14.32 13.39 13.00 Midwest Illinois 4.60 3.65 4.56 4.36 4.00 Indiana 223 2.46 2.33 3.01 4.01 Iowa 1.12 0.93 1.19 1.11 1.23 Michigan 3.74 2.72 3.76 3.37 3.47 Minnesota 1.76 1.47 1.80 1.62 1.56 Ohio 4.36 3.31 4.16 4.56 4.83 Wisconsin 1.97 1.42 1.84 1.68 1.67 Total 19.77 15.96 19.64 19.71 20.77 South Alabama 1.62 1.56 1.85 1.94 2.18 Arkansas 0.95 0.84 1.09 0.96 1.00 District of Columbia 0.24 0.11 0.15 0.21 0.08 Florida 5.20 4.57 5.36 3.77 3.67 Georgia 2.60 2.45 3.13 2.56 2.74 Kentucky 1.48 1.51 1.62 1.79 2.31 Louisinna 1.70 4.31 1.66 4.31 4.02 Mississippi 1.03 1.17 1.10 1.15 1.00 North Carolina 2.67 2.19 2.92 2.40 2.13 Oklahoma 1.26 1.28 1.48 1.67 1.71 South Carolina 1.40 1.20 1.63 1.47 1.21 Tennessee 1.96 1.73 2.18 2.16 2.11 Texas 6.83 14.47 7.73 12.07 12.39 Virginia 2.49 2.21 2.65 2.26 1.84 West Virginia 0.72 0.86 0.74 0.99 2.06 Total 32.17 40.16 35.29 39.72 40.47 SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 11:53AM ; HON. JACK REED 94566216;# 9 Table 3. State Shares of Costs Produced by Four Energy Tax Options1 (continued) (in percent of U.S. total) Portion of Share Share of Share of Share of U.S. of On Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Population Import For Tax! Tax Tax' West Alaska 0.22 0.66 0.22 0.72 0.68 Arizona 1.47 1.04. 1.48 1.13 1.22 California 11.97 10.34 11.52 9.00 7.08 Colorado 1.32 0.98 134 1.13 1.28 Hawaii 0.45 0.81 0.33 0.37 0.43 Idaho 0.40 0.35 0.43 0.46 0.24 Kansas 1.00 1.26 1.08 1.27 1.40 Missouri 2.06 1.85 2.41 1.82 2.06 Montana 0.32 0.43 0.39 0.42 0.54 Nebraska 0.63 0.61 0.69 0,63 0.65 Nevada 0.48 0.51 0.56 0.48 0.60 New Mexico 0.61 0.69 0.70 0.74 1.04 North Dakota 0.26 0.32 0.31 0.38 0.84 Oregon 1.14 1.03 1.19 1.14 0.65 South Dakota 0.28 0.33 0.34 0.25 0.23 Utah 0.69 0.57 0.63 0.67 1.04 Washington 1.96 226 2.01 2.41 1.44 Wyoming 0.18 0.36 0.27 0.49 1.08 Total 25.45 24.41 25.90 23.49 22.48 Northeast 22.62 19.18 19.16 17.09 16.27 Midwest 19.77 13.96 19.64 19.71 20.77 Northeast and Midwest 42.39 35.14 38.80 36.79 37.05 South 32.17 40.46 35.29 39.72 40.47 Went 25.45 24.41 25.90 23.49 22.48 South and West 57.61 64.85 61.20 63.21 62.95 U.S. Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 'Goal is $5 billion in federal Inx revenue. Based on an oil Import for of $1.71 per barrel. Based on an Increase of 4.3 cents per gallon. Based on $51,613.69 por trillion BTU. Based on $86,763.64 per trillion ITUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gns used: and $71,516.47 pcr trillion BTUs of petroleum used. SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on U.S. Department of Commerce, Burenu of the Census, "Census Burenu Completes Distribution of 1990 Census Information from Summary Tape File IA" (news release, Washington, D.C.. June 11, 1991: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Amual 1990: Volume I (Washington, D.C., May 1991). p. 15; State Energy Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington. D.C., May 1992). PP. 31 and 34; and carbon coofficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin. "United States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide w the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity." in Energy Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (London: Taylor and Francis, 1991), PP. 319-336. SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 :11:54AM ; HON. JACK REED- 94566216:#10 Table 4. Total Energy Tax Costs to States Excluding Industrial Sector1 (in dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of OU Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee1 Tax' Tax Tax' New England Connecticut 118,349,100 58,103,491 36,986,698 33,790,080 Maine 60,641,730 26,420,508 15,582,102 14,388.497 Massachusetts 219,779,460 104,672,789 69,235,303 72,498,098 New Hampshire 42,700,410 22,059,142 11,306,112 13,015,889 Rhode Island 26,217,720 16,436,223 9,790,415 7,381,444 Vermont 20,603,790 12,471,345 6,407,824 4,795,633 Total 488,292,210 240,163,497 149,308.455 145,869,641 Mid-Atlantic Delaware 29.878,830 14,958,405 8,730.660 12,742,384 Maryland 130,876,560 88,705,143 49,377,211 55,457,212 New Jersey 290,493,090 146,628,412 106,973,689 90,777,672 New York 489,776,490 259,843,712 177.780,141 176,792.094 Pennsylvania 315,183,780 200,082,181 132,956,182 183,512,683 Total 1,256,208,750 710,217,853 475,817,882 519,282,045 Midwest Illinais 283,613,760 225,637,625 143,954,225 148,895,045 Indiana 194,611,680 115,377,961 77,583,958 143,829,464 lows 79,355,970 57,634,914 35,255,353 48,095,880 Michigan 238,690,350 186,241,151 112,143,077 139,207,394 Minnesota 121.062,870 87,804,034 51,188,654 63,099.564 Ohio 271,878.030 206,173,676 132,574,177 187.562.186 Wisconsin 127,514,700 90,363,183 55,754,228 67,952,846 Total 1,316,727,360 969,232,545 608,453,673 798,642,380 South Alabama 130,796,190 91,804,957 52,457,896 80,361,862 Arkansas 74,665,J4() 53,778,169 30,338,581 39,822,259 District of Columbia 11,219,310 7,425,136 8,410,269 4,194,568 Florida 448,833,960 265,971,251 162,235,007 167,601,065 Georgia 223,849,260 154,125,636 88,582,002 115,376,290 Kentucky 118,109,700 79,441,745 49,451,148 94,677,826 Louisiana 203.341.230 82,109,027 75,291,929 85,471,841 Mississippi 88,222,320 53,670,036 34,959,608 35,792,941 North Carolina 192,005,640 144,429,706 80,806,354 86,088,443 Oklahoma 104,527,170 72.557.275 48,915,108 61,668.582 South Carolina 104,946,120 80.126,588 43,203,519 45,723,385 Tennessee 146,476,890 108,097,003 63,628,458 82,263,728 Texas 665,509,770 378,537,753 265,105,224 339,513,017 Virginia 204,131,250 131,057,253 83,689,875 70,506,238 West Virginin 47,483,280 36,512,926 21,971,442 78,964,169 Total 2,764,117,530 1,739,644,460 1,109,046,420 1,388,026,213 SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 ;11:54AM ; HON. JACK REED-> 94566216;#11 Table 4. Total Energy Tax Costs to States Excluding Industrial Sector1 (continued) (In dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of OII Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee2 Tax' Tax* Tax' West Alaske 58,825,710 10,921,438 17,233,349 18,332,358 Arizona 98,448,120 73,097,940 45,212,126 56,170,489 California 912,893,760 570,077,424 333,804,488 274,713,644 Colorado 87,950,430 66,177,425 43,511,588 55,375,531 Hawaii 76,985,910 16,075,780 13,973,985 18,906,885 Idaho 29.504,340 20,905,722 14,466,894 7,891,026 Kensas 79,355,970 52,444,528 38,471,588 50,840,262 Missouri 160,091.910 119,198,662 69,635,792 89,024,975 Montana 28,021,770 18,274,485 11,817,506 21,921,723 Nebraska 49,446,360 32,944,535 23,382,395 27,173,863 Nevada 45,379.980 27,790,193 17,436,674 27,159,415 New Mexico 52.228.530 34,494,442 24,577,701 43,382,618 North Dakote 23,341,500 13.841,030 9,470.024 31.325,268 Oregon 92,302,380 58,932,511 39,981,123 25,486,655 South Dakota 26,274,150 15,967,647 9,217,408 9,144,052 Utah 48,789,720 31,106,273 20,381,809 41,919,290 Washington 185,572,620 99,410,315 76,209,973 54,321,334 Wyoming 25,506,360 12,579.478 9,556,283 43,389,734 Total 2,080,919,520 1,274,239,826 818,340,708 896,479.122 Northeast 1,744,500,960 950,381,350 625,126.337 665,151,686 Midwest 1,316,727,360 969,232,545 608.453,673 798,642,380 Northeast and Midwest 3,061,228,320 1,919,613,895 1,233,580,010 1,463,794,066 South 2,764,117,530 1,739,644,460 1,109,046,420 1,388,026,213 West 2,080,919,520 1.274.239,826 818,340,708 896,479,122 South and West 4,845,037,050 3,013,884,286 1,927,387,128 2,284,505,335 U.S. Total 7,906,265.370 4,933,498,181 3,160,967.138 3,748,299,401 'Goal is $5 billion in federal tax revenue. Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per borrel. Based on an increase of 4.5 cents per gallon. Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU. "Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal used; $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gas used: and $71,516.47 pcr trillion BTUs of petroleum used. SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume / (Washington, D.C., May 1991). P. 15: State Energy Data Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington, D.C., May 1992). PP. 31 and 34; and carbon coefficients from Grugg Marland and Angela Pippin. "United States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide to the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity." in Energy Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (London: Tavlor and Francis, 1991), PP. 319-336. SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 ;11:55AM ; HON. JACK REED 94566216;#12 Table 5. State Shares of Revenues Produced by Four Energy Tax Options Excluding Industrial Sector1 (in percent of U.S. total) Portion of Share Share of Share of Share of U.S. of OII Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Population Import Fee2 Tax Tax Tax' New England Connecticut 1.32 1.50 1.18 1.17 0.90 Maine 0.49 0.77 0.54 0.49 0.38 Massachusetts 2.42 2.78 2.12 2.19 1.93 New Hampshire 0.45 0.54 0.45 0.36 0.35 Rhode Island 0.40 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.20 Vermont 0.23 0.26 0.25 0.20 0.13 Total 531 6.18 4.87 4.72 3.89 Mid-Atlantic Delaware 0.27 0.38 0.30 0.28 0.34 Maryland 1.92 1.66 1.80 1.56 1.48 New Jersey 3.11 3.67 2.97 3.38 2.42 New York 7.23 6.19 5.27 5.62 4.72 Pennsylvania 4.78 3.99 4.06 4.21 4.90 Total 17.31 15.89 14.40 15.05 13.85 Midwest Illinois 4.60 3.59 4.57 4.35 3.97 Indiana 2.23 2.46 2.34 2.45 3.84 lown 1.12 1.00 1.17 1.12 1.28 Michigan 3.74 3.02 3.78 3.55 3.71 Minnesota 1.76 1.53 1.78 1.62 1.68 Ohio 4.36 3.44 4.18 4.19 5.00 Wisconsin 1.97 1.61 1.83 1.76 1.81 Total 19.77 16.65 19.65 19.25 21.31 South Alabama 1.62 1.65 1.86 1.66 2.14 Arkansas 0.95 0.94 1.09 0.96 1.06 District of Columbia 0.24 0.14 0.15 0.27 0.11 Florida 5.20 5.68 5.39 5.13 4.47 Georgia 2.60 2.83 3.12 2.80 3.08 Kentucky 1.48 1.49 1.61 1.56 2.53 Louisiana 1.70 2.57 1.66 2.38 2.28 Mississippi 1.03 1.12 1.09 1.11 0.95 North Carolina 2.67 2.43 2.93 2.56 2.30 Oklahoma 1.26 1.32 1.47 1.55 1.65 South Carolina 1.40 1.33 1.62 1.37 1.22 Tennessee 1.96 1.85 2.19 2.01 2.19 Texas 6.83 8.42 7.67 8.39 9.06 Virginia 2.49 2.58 2.56 2.65 1.88 West Virginia 0.72 0.60 0.74 0.70 2.11 Total 32.17 34.96 35.26 35.09 37.03 SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 11:55AM ; HON. JACK REED 94566216;#13 Table 5. State Shares of Revenues Produced by Four Energy Tax Options Excluding Industrial Sector1 (continued) (in percent of U.S. total) Portion of Share Share of Share of Share of U.S. of Oil Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Population Import Fes' Tax' Tax Tar' West Alaska 0.22 0.74 0.22 0.55 0.49 Arizona 1.47 1.25 1.48 1.43 150 California 11.97 11.55 11.56 10.36 7.33 Colorado 1.32 1.11 134 1.38 1.48 Hawaii 0.45 0.97 0.33 0.44 0.50 Idaho 0.40 0.37 0.42 0.46 0.21 Kansas 1.00 1.00 1.06 1.22 1.36 Missouri 2.06 2.02 2.42 2.20 2.38 Montana 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.37 0.58 Nebraska 0.63 0.63 0.67 0.74 0.72 Nevada 0.48 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.72 Now Mexico 0.61 0.66 0.70 0.78 1.16 North Dakota 0.26 0.30 0.28 0.30 0.84 Oregon 1.14 1.17 1.19 1.26 0.68 South Dakota 0.28 0.33 0.32 0.29 0.24 Utah 0.69 0.62 0.63 0.64 1.12 Washington 1.96 235 2.02 2.41 1.45 Wyoming 0.18 0.32 0.25 0.30 1.16 Total 25.45 26.32 25.83 25.89 23.92 Northeast 22.62 22.06 19.26 19.78 17.75 Midwest 19.77 16.65 19.65 19.25 2131 Northeast and Midwent 42.39 38.72 38.91 39.03 39.05 South 32.17 34.96 35.26 35.09 37.03 West 25.45 26.32 25.83 25.89 23.92 South and West 57.61 61.28 61.09 60.97 60.95 U.S. Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 'Goal is $5 billion in federal 10% revenue. Based on 32 all Import fee of $1.71 per barrel. Based on an Increase of 4.5 cents per gallon. Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU. Based on $86,763.61 per trillion BTUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gas used: and $71,516.47 per trillion IITUs of petroleum used. SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on Bureau of the Census, "Census Burenu Completes Distribution of 1990 Census Information from Summary Tape File IA" (news release. Washington, D.C., June 11. 1991: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume I (Washington, D.C., May 1991), P. 15: State Energy Date Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington, D.C., May 1992). PP. 31 and 34; and carbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin, "United States Emissions of Carbon Diaxide to the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity," in Energy Systems and Policy. Volume 14 (London: Taylor and Francis, 1991). PP. 319-336. SENT BY :CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 ;11:55AM ; HON. JACK REED-> 94566216;#14 Table 6. Cost to Households of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion Excluding Industrial Sector (in dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of OII Gasoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee' Tax' Tax Tax' New England Connecticut 96 47 30 27 Maine 130 57 34 31 Massachusetts 98 47 31' 32 New Hempshire 104 54 28 32 Rhode Island 69 43 26 20 Vermont 98 59 30 23 Total 99 49 30 30 Mid-Atlantic Delaware 121 61 35 52 Maryland 75 51 28 32 New Jersey 104 52 38 32 New York 74 39 27 27 Pennsylvania 70 45 30 41 Total 79 45 30 33 Midwest Illinois 67 54 34 35 Indiana 94 56 38 70 lawn 75 54 33 45 Michigan 70 54 33 41 Minnesota 73 53 31 38 Ohio 67 50 32 46 Wisconsin 70 50 31 37 Total 72 53 33 44 South Alabama 87 61 35 53 Arkansas 84 60 34 45 District of Columbia 45 30 34 17 Florida 87 52 32 33 Georgia 95 65 37 49 Kentucky 86 58 36 69 Louisiana 136 55 50 37 Mississippi 97 59 38 39 North Carolina 76 S7 32 34 Oklahoma 87 60 41 51 South Carolina 83 64 34 36 Tennessee 79 SS 34 44 Texas 110 62 44 56 Virginia 89 57 37 31 West Virginia 69 53 32 115 Total 93 58 37 47 SENT BY:CAPITOL HILL OFFICE ; 1-29-93 11:56AM ; HON. JACK REED 94566216:#15 Table 6. Cost to Households of Four Energy Tax Options to Raise $5 Billion Excluding Industrial Sector1 (continued) (in dollars) Cost of Cost of Cost of Cost of OII Casoline BTU Carbon State or Region Import Fee' Tax' Tax' Tax' West Alaska 311 58 91 97 Arizona 72 53 33 41 Callfornia 88 SS 32 26 Colorado 69 S2 34 43 Hawaii 216 45 39 53 Idaho 82 58 40 22 Kansas 84 55 41 54 Missouri 82 61 36 45 Montana 92 60 39 72 Nebraska 82 55 39 45 Nevada 97 60 37 58 Now Mexico 96 64 as 80 North Dakota 97 57 39 130 Oregon 84 53 36 23 South Dakota 101 62 36 35 Utah 91 58 38 78 Washington 99 53 41 29 Wyoming 151 74 57 257 Total 91 56 35 39 Northeast 84 46 30 32 Midwest 72 53 33 44 Northeast and Midwest 78 49 31 37 South 93 58 37 47 West 91 56 36 39 South and West 92 57 37 43 U.S. Total 86 54 34 41 Goal is SS billion in federal tax revenue. Based on an oil import fee of $1.71 per barrel. Based on an increase of 4.5 cents per gallon. Based on $61,613.69 per trillion BTU. Based on $86,763.64 per trillion BTUs of coal used: $49,371.78 per trillion BTUs of natural gns used: and $71,516.47 per trillion BTU. of petroleum used. SOURCES: Northeast-Midwest staff calculations based on households by state from U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1993 (Washington, D.C., 1992). P. 19; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual 1990: Volume I (Washington, D.C., May 1991). p. 15: State Energy Data Report: Consumption Estimates 1960-1990 (Washington. D.C.. May 1992), PP. 31 and 31; and earbon coefficients from Gregg Marland and Angela Pippin. "United States Emissions of Carbon Dioxide w the Earth's Atmosphere by Economic Activity." in Energy Systems and Policy, Volume 14 (London: Taylor and Francis. 1991). PP. 319-336. Economic Group 1/25/93 President, Vice President, Reich, Rubin, Panetta, Stephanopoulos, Tyson, Bentsen, Blinder, Mack, G Simon. Panetta: Need decision by next week for February State of the Union, GPO docs by 2/15. President: If tight, fast - Early March. Appropriations will be deficit targeted. Budget Resolution process should start. State of the Union can help get short-term debt limit extension. Long-term in package. Bentsen: If not done by August, Republicans will hold up. Stephanopoulos: Hard to pass debt extension after stimulus. President: When can we pass Budget Resolution? Panetta: April 15. Then reconciliation process begins, including cuts and taxes. Need whole package by August Recess. President: Stimulus in March, 5 months later for Budget Three other legislative goals: 1. Health Care 2. National Security ] + Vetoed bills 3. Political Reform How does this timetable affect other legislation? Panetta: Move Political Reform at same time. Bentsen: Can't pass Health this year. AB: Can do some things soon: vaccines, WIC, unif bills. Brown: What about Fed? What about growth goals? Credit = better growth goals. President: Need to announce budget in stimulus. Vice President: Got credit in bond markets and Laura Tyson talking about plan. President: National Security? Panetta: Separate track on Budget Resolution Reconciliation. Reich: National Security fits into plan in social theme. Vice President: Agree. Panetta: Need help. Stephanopoulos: Pass report in House and Senate in summer, roll Conference Report into Reconciliation. Bentsen: Carrots in tax bill will help - luxury tax, etc. Panetta: April-May: find Budget Resolution. Reconciliation in August. President: Need laundry list of Health strategy. Need political reform bill now. Vice President: Who's in charge? Stephanopoulos: Pastor/Waldman. * Vice President: Get word to Pastor/Waldman on fast track. Blinder: Troika usually agrees on the forecast. There is agreement this year to do each: blue chip and Macro Economic later. Darman scratched it and put blue chip and Macro zus each. President: What is blue chip? AB: Guy in Sedona calls 52 investors and asks for their forecasts and averages. Darman probably broke the law. Darman number - FY97 305 B Clinton/Gore transition- " 52 B for Darman * magic 357 B The Bush Office forecast would be 266 B if not for Darman change. + 52 B 318 B CBO goes out Tuesday and is optimistic. Panetta: If we take 318, CBO will be worse. Panetta: Can be better than CBO but not too much. President: Our political position will be stronger if we start in worse deficit at beginning, not if run own making. Reich: Need proposal to understand. Vice President: Our stated view of baseline will not affect markets? Rubin: If credit, OK. Vice President: If higher, that's OK. Rubin: Yes. Stephanopoulos: If we take 318 B, then no taxes. Rubin: Decrease deficit, less we do. President: What is the truth? AB: Five year forecast too hard. President: Why 5 year plan if we can't forecast? AB: Good question. Panetta: Ronald Reagan balanced 5 year budget every year. Reich: Business uses budget range, say ZW 318-357. LT: Have to choose where in range to act. Panetta: Congress will go to the bottom of the range. President: Bentsen? Bentsen: Need credit number. LT: Is 20 B of 40 B a gift credit? Stephanopoulos: Do you do both? Bensten: Greenspan, Darman number not credit. Reich: Why not publish range and be conserv Bentsen: Even if Congress doesn't do it all, the Administration will have credit. Panetta: Take high ground. President: If we go high, Congress will go low. Reich: Setting range would be bold. Panetta: Congress will take the easy track. President: Let's visit about cBo. Panetta: The closer to CBO the better. President: If CBO at 340, call leadership about the range. Let's take the CBO number and stick to it. Bentsen: Congress is supposed to be doing the CBO number anyway. President: Let's focus on product, not process on budget targets. Al? Vice President: I agree. AB: CBO uses long-term growth rate of 2 = lower growth numbers Do we adopt CBO low-growth rate? Could use our growth rate and CBO deficit by different assumption on interest rates since no none knows outyear rates. Panetta: Bottom line numbers, not growth rate is key. Reich: Can we be more optimistic? Rubin: Does that make it harder for a long-term package? President: We cannot acknowledge economic policy for these pessimistic growth rates. LT: If our program is good, why make up numbers? Vice President: Communication problem. Communicate to market and public. Credit of forecast / measure of our progress. "We expect better growth rates but we're tired of lying about numbers." President: Say growth numbers are too low, other Administration lied and got more debt. We can't pretend about the value of numbers. Reich: Put our own best guess about our progress in FY97. Vice President: Spent lots of time in Congress in Tennessee. Don't believe Sasser and Byrd agree on taking this tough a stance. Will help us in growth. President: Can't adopt this growth number. Al's right. Need to state for Senators who think we should invest our way out. Stephanopoulos: How is this to be judged in 4 years? Panetta: Problem -- How to get SOC if goal too easy. President: Health Care. Unless we pass a health care tax (maybe more popular than a general tax.) Spend government savings to extend coverage. Very specific legislation -- things to do beyond 5-year time. We should use Social Security improvements in '83 as a model. Bentsen: I strongly agree. Greenspan felt the bond market would respond to long-term planning (on health care as well). President: Need to be positioned for 21st Century after 8 years. Reich: Need 1) to put in investment baseline. 2) per person / GDP Stephanopoulos: Cant' be judged solely by debt. President: The press is judging only on debt. They have jobs and income increase. Stephanopoulos: Reich should do some memos on other baselines for the State of the Union. Panetta: We need stimulus/investment/debt decrease as package. Bentsen: Pain gets in the papers. AB: ? Start in CBO forecast if 2357 B. Blue chip in October for long-term. -- Stimulus Package -- Panetta: GDP number for 4th quarter is 4 percent. Unemployment is up, Hs growth. Why the need for a stimulus? Expect deficits and large layoffs to hit economy. 1st quarter of '93 is soft. Proposed stimulus. Need a quick spend out. If construction rate is slow, put in investment. Try to avoid new authorization. PPF themes. Try to avoid little pieces. 20-30 B range. 15 B on spending program ITC later, as stimulus now. [NOTE TO GREG: Manufacturing Tax Credit] ITC ratio to 12/3/92 S issue jobs / Immun prog - Immun day. Stephanopoulos: Mikulski recommends goal by start of school. President: Government buys by the bulk. * Vice President: Get pediatricians to give shots at cost [Part of National Service] Vice President: Information highways - Need spendout rate. Water/sewer - ready to go. Panetta: Let's keep tight. Water/sewer goes to '95. * Vice President: If show money ready to go, we got it? Panetta: Right. Brown: Connie Lee - college building money, $1 Billion. If allowed to do 50 percent college, 50 percent other, could put $1 Billion into eco-guarantee bonds ?? Bentsen: Private sector isn't in Reconciliation. Panetta: Reg for supplemental for Somalia, Disaster/SBA/UN. Will talk to Aspin on Deficit. Enforcement/ Line item veto? Modified version will move in without you. HP: Need to re-invest it in Byrd inside. If we don't try, we lose. President: Talked to him twice. Need to get out early. Vice President: Opposed line item veto unless majority vote. President: Before taxes and cutting benefits, need to give them something, cut government waste. Book on Government Waste - Arizona (got 50 cc) Need high visible cuts in government for Cabinet Secretary Government Ops Report - need today. Reich: Need Cabinet Secretary in FY '94 to ensure no pork/waste. President: Need specific 2nd term savings. Health Care Tax -- specific purpose tax easier to sell. Need discussion. Need everyone to contribute to reducing debt in some way. Suspend indexing for a year -- double whammy. No taxation on inflation, but goverment pays inflation. Indexing only helps at break. We are preventing a zero-sum game on an 8 million job base. Need to look at other factors. Vice President: Take a big bite out of deficit offset by bond market and Fed to get upturn by '96. President: Where's the reward for the SOC How to demonstrate that we produced an increase in growth. ENERGY TAX President: What do you prefer? Bensten: I refer an added value tax. Think oppos to BTU tax or gas tax. From environmental viewpoint, BTU better but strong opposition from coal states. Need to feel they are treated equal. BTU problem: oil is favored over natural gas. [Question: How to favor coal and not favor oil?] President: Sales on VAT or Prop. Bentsen: Tax on utilitization of energy. At 5 percent, we would collect $20 Billion/year. BTU 30 cents same level. BTU brings about change in energy use. Vice President: BTU would encourage natural gas. Give Bentsen paper. 1. Added Value encourages coal because cheap and dirty. Added value hits coal less than oil or natural gas. Fuel switches to coal -- wipe out reduction of pollution if reduce energy use. Environmental pol oppose added value tax. 2. BTU here, BTU other countries. Helps in international credit on C02 decrease. Not less comp. Added value, no foreign match. CO2 really hard on coal, too hard politically. BTU hits coal but not too hard. Bentsen: Agree with Vice President on Enviro. Joint Tax Committee: Crude oil increased 10.1% on BTU tax. Coal 29.2% (Mark) Natural Gas 18.3% President: Whst is net increase in revenue base? Why bleed for $20 Billion tax that is 6% of operate deficit. and less than 2% of total revenue ** Reconcile numbers DRAFT ECONOMIC AND BUDGET BRIEFING IV Ron Cogswald EPA 395 -4806 people OMB Rob Fairweather stimulus 395 - 6827 package I 28-Jan-93 04:27 PM FY 1994 BUDGET CURRENT STATUS (in billions of dollars) FY 1997 Target Status Deficit 225 224 Stimulus N/A +1 Investment +63 +50 Deficit Reduction: Defense -23 -23 Non-Defense Discretionary -30 -16 Entitlements -50 -53 Revenues -76 -75 Page 1 FY 1994 BUDGET CURRENT STATUS 01/28/93 (in billions of dollars) 04:30 PM 1994-97 1994-98 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total Total Transition Baseline 326 302 293 305 357 390 1,257 1,647 CBO econ outlays -2 -10 -24 -43 -58 -76 -136 -212 CBO econ lower receipts 7 20 32 39 58 92 149 240 Current Baseline 332 313 301 301 356 406 1,270 1,675 Proposals: Spending Increases: Stimulus 6 6 2 1 1 1 10 10 Investment --- 18 30 40 50 55 138 193 Spending Decreases: Defense (target) --- -4 -11 -18 -23 -28 -56 -84 Nondefense Discretionary --- -4 -7 -12 -16 -19 -39 -58 Entitlements --- -12 -24 -40 -53 -63 -129 -192 Page 2 Revenue Increases (target) -18 -58 -67 -76 -83 -219 -302 Total Proposals 6 -14 -68 -96 -117 -136 -296 -432 Debt Service * _* -3 -8 -15 -23 -25 -49 Total Deficit Change 6 -15 -71 -104 -132 -160 -321 -481 Deficit Change Targets 14 -23 -82 -110 -134 -160 -349 -509 Proposed Deficits 338 298 230 197 224 246 949 1,195 Original deficit targets 341 279 211 195 225 230 910 1,140 Debt Held by the Public: Baseline 3,314 3,632 3,935 4,238 4,597 5,006 Proposed 3,321 3,624 3,856 4,055 4,282 4,532 Totals as a percent of GDP: Proposed deficit change 0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -1.4 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -1.3 Proposed deficit 5.5 4.6 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.3 Baseline Debt 53.7 55.8 57.4 58.8 60.9 63.6 Proposed Debt 53.8 55.7 56.3 56.3 56.8 57.6 GDP 6,173 6,508 6,855 7,202 7,543 7,873 28,108 35,981 STIMULUS 28-Jan-93 03:58 PM PROPOSED FY 1993 STIMULUS OPTIONS (in millions of dollars) FUNC- BUDGET TION SELECTED STIMULUS OPTIONS AUTHORITY OUTLAYS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 450 Rural Development Administration: Wastewater loan level (500) N/A Subsidy level 71 2 450 Rural Development Administration: Wastewater grants 200 4 300 Soil Conservation Service: Watershed & conservation 50 25 350 Agricultural Research Service: Facility enhanced maintenance 40 31 300 Forest Service maintenance 100 90 600 Food & Nutrition Service: Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) supplemental feeding program 75 68 350 Food & Nutrition Service: The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP) 25 25 Subtotal, Agriculture 561 245 DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 300 DOD-Civil: Army Corps of Engineers 180 41 DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 500 Summer 1993 pre-school & school programs 1,300 325 500 Disadvantaged student program 250 30 Subtotal, Education 1,550 355 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 270 Energy: Building and industrial conservation 20 10 ? 2 why not slap. 1 is this the Federal Energy Page 3 28-Jan-93 03:58 PM PROPOSED FY 1993 STIMULUS OPTIONS (in millions of dollars) FUNC- BUDGET TION SELECTED STIMULUS OPTIONS AUTHORITY OUTLAYS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES 500 Head Start 556 293 550 Immunization 212 148 550 AIDS: Ryan White Act 160 59 650 Social Security Admin.: Disability insurance (DI) processing 272 272 Subtotal, Health & Human Services 1,200 772 DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING & URBAN DEVELOPMENT 600 Accelerate home investment partnership 600 Accelerate public housing modernization --- --- 600 Community development block grants 2,000 520 Subtotal, Housing & Urban Development 2,000 520 DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 300 Maintenance of national parks and forests 150 135 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 500 Job Training Partnership Act: Summer youth employment and training program 500 330 600 Extend unemployment compensation 3,100 3,100 Subtotal, Labor 3,600 3,430 Page 4 28-Jan-93 03:58 PM PROPOSED FY 1993 STIMULUS OPTIONS (in millions of dollars) FUNC- BUDGET TION SELECTED STIMULUS OPTIONS AUTHORITY OUTLAYS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION 400 Federal-aid highway program 2,976 218 400 Mass transit 1,000 140 Subtotal, Transportation 3,976 358 DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY 800 Treasury: Accelerate tax system modernization 158 111 OTHER AGENCIES 300 EPA: Cash for clunkers 350 175 800 GSA: Vehicle energy conversion 30 30 .~ 370 SBA: 7(a) loan guarantee level (2,700) N/A 1 Subsidy level 150 45 Subtotal, Other Agencies 530 250 TOTALS: Stimulus proposals 13,925 6,227 Loan levels 3,200 Less: subsidy BA -221 --- TOTAL, Including loan levels 16,904 6,227 Page 5 INVESTMENT 28-Jan-93 INVESTMENT OPTIONS 03:52 PM (outlays in millions of dollars) 1994-97 1997 Total REBUILD AMERICA Infrastructure Federal-aid highway program 1,298 5,014 Mass transit 750 1,600 Other DOT funding 478 1,264 Public land highways and Indian reservation roads 169 368 Drinking water infrastructure 780 1,640 Rural water and waste loans and grants 209 435 Water resources development 1,200 2,945 Environmental infrastructure 363 1,309 Tree planting initiative 112 402 Energy efficiency in Federal buildings 192 495 Weather service modernization 47 346 Defense Conversion Moderate defense conversion program 1,500 5,767 Low-Income Housing Credit Permanent extension 1,097 2,387 Enterprise Zones 682 1,397 Community Development Banks 111 422 Housing 50% HOME/50% vouchers (150,000 units) 354 571 Other Community development block grant (CDBG) 406 930 TOTAL, REBUILD AMERICA 9,748 27,292 Page 6 28-Jan-93 INVESTMENT OPTIONS 03:52 PM (outlays in millions of dollars) 1994-97 1997 Total LIFELONG LEARNING Head Start Program growth 2,628 5,987 Related Medicaid 193 404 Related child care feeding 273 636 WIC (Special supplemental food pro- gram for women, infants, and children) 798 2,098 National Service 2,000 5,400 Youth Apprenticeship 530 1,394 Education Reform and Initiatives 3,025 6,845 Dislocated Worker Assistance Act 2,000 2,459 Parenting and Family Support 495 890 Other Chapter 1 (Compensatory Education) supplemental 250 725 Job Corps: adopt "50-50 plan" 200 320 JTPA, Summer Youth Employment and Training 500 1,830 TOTAL, LIFELONG LEARNING 12,892 28,988 PRIVATE SECTOR INCENTIVES Investment Tax Credit - 5 percent 5,900 21,400 R&D Tax Credit 1,700 6,200 Mortgage Revenue Bond 256 666 Page 7 28-Jan-93 INVESTMENT OPTIONS 03:52 PM (outlays in millions of dollars) 1994-97 1997 Total Technology: Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology 1,815 4,248 Crosscutting NSF, NIH, NASA, & NIST high performance computing 320 847 Environmental Technology 131 300 ? Other National Research Initiative grants (Agriculture) 110 207 Forestry Research Initiative (Agriculture) 105 273 National Inst of Standards and Technology growth 396 970 Energy conservation and renewable energy programs (Energy Policy Act) 420 1,020 Natural gas research and development; ? Emphasize utilization 90 185 Advanced Neutron Source 243 437 Build Tokamak physics experiment 90 224 SBA 7(a) loan guarantees 161 569 National Science Foundation 850 2,689 NASA aeronautics research 242 641 Fully invest in IRS tax system modernization including acceleration 696 1,873 Social Security Administration (automation) 245 980 TOTAL, PRIVATE SECTOR INCENTIVES 13,770 43,729 Page 8 28-Jan-93 INVESTMENT OPTIONS 03:52 PM (outlays in millions of dollars) 1994-97 1997 Total HEALTH CARE AIDS, women's health, and other public health initiatives: Targeted growth 3,206 8,235 AIDS - Ryan White Act 394 1,028 Other Substance abuse prevention and treatment 800 1,873 Food Stamps and nutrition assistance expansion 2,468 7,172 Social Security Administration (DI processing) 200 800 TOTAL, HEALTH CARE 7,068 19,108 REWARDING WORK Expand EITC (earned income tax credit): Low range 2,500 4,700 Expand Welfare Reform 3,800 10,700 Other Individual development accounts 434 1,474 Extend unemployment compensation --- 1,900 TOTAL, REWARDING WORK 6,734 18,774 TOTAL, ALL CATEGORIES 50,212 137,891 Page 9 DEFENSE Defense Paths Billions of Dollars 295 290 285 Page 10 280 275 Aspin C 270 $225A (1/3B) 265 $212 (50%B) 260 $225B (2/3B) 255 $190 (75%B) 250 Aspin B 245 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 NON-DEFENSE DISCRETIONARY NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) 04:05 PM FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 150 Consolidate overseas broadcasting -229 -641 150 Reduce security assistance -997 -1,651 150 Phase-out defense acquisition fund -138 -395 150 Reduce Export Import Bank credits -197 -544 150 Moscow embassy building: Technical adjustment -140 -344 Eliminate Enterprise for the Americas (EAI) Debt Restructuring: 150 Agency for International Development -57 -217 150 P.L. 480 -46 -175 150 Eliminate contribution to MIF of EAI -83 -197 Total, Function 150 -1,887 -4,164 GENERAL SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 250 Reduce superconducting super collider --- -172 250 Replace space station with technology investment 69 1,845 Total, Function 250 69 1,673 ENERGY 270 Uranium enrichment initiative -386 -1,275 270 Assess foreign customers decommissioning and decontamination fee (receipts) -106 -397 270 Eliminate Rural Electrification Administration loan subsidies -161 -401 270 Eliminate unnecessary nuclear reactor R&D -268 -820 Total, Function 270 -921 -2,893 Page 11 NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) 04:05 PM FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT 300 Below-cost timber sales -28 -72 300 Reduce construction funding for water projects -90 -400 300 Privatize superfund financing -109 -308 300 Phaseout watewater except NAFTA -1,795 -3,436 ) Total, Function 300 -2,022 -4,216 AGRICULTURE 350 Cooperative State Research Service (CSRS): Earmarked grants -43 -97 350 Eliminate CSRS facilities construction -45 -87 350 Agriculture user fees -16 -59 350 Agricultural Research Service: Facilities construction -10 -24 350 Reduce agricultural research/extension 10% -169 -577 350 Eliminate special extension grants -14 -54 350 Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) -10 -35 350 Reduce ACIF farm loans 25%, replace -10 -39 350 Implement one new Farm Service Organization -307 -730 350 Reduce funding for Economic Research Service -17 -60 Total, Function 350 -641 -1,762 COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT 370 SEC Registration Fees -54 -203 370 SBA Earmarked Grants -114 -335 370 Reduce 7(a) business loan subsidies -130 -459 Page 12 NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) 04:05 PM FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total 370 Reduce Export Administration by 15% -8 -30 370 Cut multi-family housing/replace with vouchers -136 -416 Total, Function 370 -442 -1,443 TRANSPORTATION 400 Highway demonstrations (appropriated) -329 -863 400 Airport Improvement (AIP): Reduce -250 -505 400 Eliminate Interstate Commerce Commission -29 -92 Total, Function 400 -608 -1,460 EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES 500 Reduce campus aid -305 -777 500 Stop growth of 1993 Pell Grant shortfall --- -456 500 Eliminate "b" impact aid -150 -419 500 Eliminate selected small programs -202 -572 500 Freeze Arts and Humanities -128 -274 Total, Function 500 -785 -2,498 HEALTH 550 Eliminate most health training -27 -87 550 FDA user fees -336 -1,018 550 Meat/Poultry fees - 100% of overtime -104 -416 Total, Function 550 -467 -1,521 Page 13 NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) 04:05 PM FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total INCOME SECURITY 600 Eliminate individual HUD grants -278 -565 600 Reduce HUD HOPE grants -158 -291 600 Modify fees for Federal housing -193 -454 600 Shift public/Indian new construction to HOME 38 180 600 Shift all HUD new construction to HOME 548 1,277 Total, Function 600 -43 147 VETERAN BENEFITS AND SERVICES 700 Cut Veterans Affairs construction -137 -286 700 Improve management of VA hospitals -400 -1,000 700 Reduce beneficiary travel -77 -289 700 Reallocate nurse staff -49 -161 700 Adhere to out-patient eligibility -59 -199 Total, Function 700 -722 -1,935 ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE 750 Reduce prison construction -181 -331 750 Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF) user fee -5 -20 750 Reduce U.S. Customs, Drug Enforcement Administration 25% - U.S. Customs -21 -78 750 Reduce U.S. Customs, DEA 25% - DEA -25 -87 Total, Function 750 -232 -516 Page 14 NONDEFENSE DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) 04:05 PM FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total ALLOWANCES 920 Termination of commissions -11 -36 920 Cut White House staff -11 -42 920 Cut Congressional staff -123 -460 920 Pay: Adjust baseline to reflect current law pay raises 1,230 2,380 Pay raise minus 1 for four years -2,260 -5,230 920 Reduce budgets for FTS 2000 price reduction -98 -374 920 Adminstrative Efficiencies: Cut 100,000 Federal employees and other administrative savings: Non-defense -6,172 -14,920 Defense (-4,242) (-10,265) Total, Function 920 -7,445 -18,682 Total, ALL FUNCTIONS -16,146 -39,270 Page 15 ENTITLEMENTS 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total ENERGY 270 Power Marketing Administration (PMA): Debt repayment reform receipts -292 -1,165 270 PMA: Market incentives for conservation -223 -520 270 Index nuclear waste fee -53 -105 270 Raise nuclear waste fee and index fee -99 -396 Total, Function 270 -667 -2,186 NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT 300 Conservation reserve: no new acres -178 -331 300 Inland Waterway user fee phase-in -325 -685 300 Increase grazing fees -35 -76 300 Federal irrigation water -15 -45 300 Recreation fees -67 -253 300 Increase hardrock mining claims -80 -240 300 50% net receipt sharing (minerals) -45 -170 Total, Function 300 -745 -1,800 AGRICULTURE 350 Eliminate Cooperative State Research Service (Morrill-Nelson permanent appropriation) -3 -12 350 Eliminate honey program -7 -43 350 Total income over $100,000 (means-test farm subsidies) -300 -1,050 350 Limit Commodity Credit Corporation income- Page 16 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total support payments to $50,000 per year -213 -810 350 Reduce market promotion program to FY 1993 level -52 -208 350 Increase non-eligible payment acres starting in FY 1996 -720 -1,030 350 Eliminate 0/92 & 50/92 (PAY/92) programs starting in FY 1996 -664 -937 350 Increase assessments on "non-program" crops starting FY 1996 -450 -900 350 Limit payments on wool and mohair to $50 thousand per person -66 -212 350 Reform disaster payments --- --- 350 Reform crop insurance program through area-yield -255 -739 Total, Function 350 -2,730 -5,941 COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT 370 Assess examination fees for State-chartered, FDIC-insured banks -367 -1,386 370 Extend patent and trademark fees -115 -226 370 Government National Mortgage Association: Real estate mortgage insurance conduits -30 -120 370 Limit Federal Housing Administration closing costs (Phase-in to 57%) -81 -253 Page 17 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total 370 Commodity Futures Trading Commission fees -63 -235 370 Securities and Exchange Commission registration fee -50 -188 Total, Function 370 -706 -2,408 TRANSPORTATION 400 Recreational decal/charge for rescue -33 -125 400 Continue tonnage fees -65 -130 400 Peak period pricing -92 -368 400 Increase fees on general aviation aircraft -138 -505 Total, Function 400 -328 -1,128 EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES 500 Direct student loans -1,157 -2,211 500 State default fee -146 -511 Total, Function 500 -1,303 -2,722 HEALTH 550 Federal Employees Health Benefits: Medicare rates over-65 -66 -210 550 Federal Employees Heatth Benefits: Phase-in retiree copayments -190 -415 550 Medicaid: Survey and certification user fees -113 -413 Page 18 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total 550 Third party liability: Enhanced collections (includes Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Affairs, Indian Health Service, Defense Department) -400 -800 Total, Function 550 -769 -1,838 MEDICARE Extenders: 570 10% capital reduction, Prospective Payment System neutral -1,060 -1,950 570 Internal Revenue Service/Social Security Administration/Health Care Financing Administration data match -538 -953 570 Medicare secondary payer (MSP) for the disabled -780 -1,380 570 MSP for end stage renal disease after 18 months -56 -96 570 Payments for hospital outpatient services -950 -1,760 570 Maintain Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) premium at 25% of costs -2,055 -2,055 570 Pay hospitals for inpatient services by hospital- based physicians -725 -2,015 570 Outpatient payment reform (Part B) - Hospitals -1,000 -2,650 570 Put hospitals on current year update -1,305 -4,475 570 Phase-in lower IME to 3.2% - Hospitals -3,834 -9,211 570 Set laboratory rates at market levels - Administration -1,150 -3,010 570 Eliminate skilled nursing facility return on equity payments -135 -480 570 Set durable medical equipment rates at market levels -290 -600 Page 19 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total 570 Set intraocular lenses reimbursement at competitive rates ($100) - Administration -70 -255 570 Set erythropoitin (EPO) at non-U.S. market rates ($10 per 1000 units) - Administration -30 -100 570 Three-month Part B freeze (CBO) -1,200 -3,400 570 30% coinsurance when Medigap pays some beneficiaries -3,000 -9,350 570 Discount for interactions 2,832 6,806 Total, Function 570 -15,346 -36,934 RETIREMENT 600 End lump-sum benefit -3,032 -5,132 600 Fee for State SSI administration -190 -540 600 Fees for child support enforcement -80 -225 600 Equate matching rates for welfare program: Deficit neutral proposal --- --- Total, Function 600 -3,302 -5,897 SOCIAL SECURITY Option 1: Delay cost-of-living-adjustments (COLA) for 6 months: 650 Social Security/Railroad -6,500 -23,500 650 Other non-means tested -1,300 -4,900 650 Offsets 400 1,000 650 Total -7,400 -27,400 Page 20 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total Option 2: COLA at CPI minus 1 for four years: 650 Social Security/Railroad -12,400 -28,700 650 Other non-means tested -2,700 -6,300 650 Offsets 600 1,300 650 Total -14,500 -33,700 Option 3: Delay COLAs for 3 months: 650 Social Security/Railroad -3,200 -11,600 650 Other non-means tested -654 -2,432 650 Offsets ??? ??? 650 Total -3,854 -14,032 650 Retain Social Security threshold and tax 85% -6,900 -21,400 Total, Function 650 With Social Security/Federal Pay Option 2 -21,400 -55,100 VETERANS BENEFITS AND SERVICES 700 Housing loan fees 2% -146 -574 700 Veterans pensions-medicaid nursing homes --- --- 700 Pension income through Internal Revenue Service --- --- 700 Readjustment benefits -135 -436 700 Medical care costs recovery -407 -1,170 700 Prescription charge/co-payment --- --- 700 VA housing down-payment -17 -68 Page 21 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total 700 Resale losses on loans -21 -80 700 Insurance administration from reserve -31 -113 Total, Function 700 -757 -2,441 ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE 750 Extend U.S. Customs merchandise and passenger processing fees -579 -1,143 750 U.S. Customs overtime reform -18 -72 Total, Function 750 -597 -1,215 GENERAL GOVERNMENT 800 Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands funding agreement -10 -31 Total, Function 800 -10 -31 NET INTEREST 900 Shorten debt securities -2,300 -5,300 Total, Function 900 -2,300 -5,300 Page 22 04:26 PM PROPOSED ENTITLEMENT SAVINGS 28-Jan-93 (outlays in millions of dollars) FUNC- 1994-97 TION SAVINGS OPTIONS 1997 Total UNDISTRIBUTED OFFSETTING RECEIPTS 950 Auction Federal Communications Commission spectrum -2,083 -4,072 Total, Function 950 -2,083 -4,072 Total, ALL FUNCTIONS With Social Security/Federal Pay Option 2 -53,043 -129,013 Page 23 REVENUES 26-Jan-93 11:26 AM EFFECT OF POSSIBLE REVENUE PACKAGE ON RECEIPTS (in billions of dollars) 1994-97 1994-98 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total Total Increase top individual income tax rate to 36% 4.2 12.1 11.3 12.1 12.0 39.7 51.7 10% income tax surcharge on income greater than $1 million 0.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 6.4 8.5 Extend phase-out of personal exemption and itemized deductions --- --- 2.3 6.6 8.9 8.9 17.8 Increase AMT rate to 28% 0.4 2.8 2.6 3.0 4.6 8.8 13.4 Repeal HI taxable wage base 2.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 7.1 20.7 27.8 Page 24 Increase top corporation income tax rate to 36%. 3.4 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.2 20.4 26.6 Broad based energy tax ... 16.8 20.8 21.9 22.8 59.5 82.3 Extend 2.5 cent per gallon gas tax --- --- 2.4 2.6 2.7 5.0 7.7 Increase "sin" taxes 3.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 18.0 23.1 Phase out possessions tax credit (sec. 936) over 5 years 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 5.8 9.0 Restrict deduction for business meals and entertainment to 50% 1.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 11.9 15.5 Modify limits on pension contributions 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 4.5 6.0 Miscellaneous (foreign tax, market-to market, moving expense deduction, extend 55% estate & gift rate, etc.) 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 6.4 8.4 TOTAL 18.0 56.8 66.2 75.0 81.8 216.0 297.8 AD HOC ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING Friday, January 29, 1993 - 10:30 a.m. - Room 476 OEOB Representative Room Phone Fax OMB - Randy Lyon 9002 NEOB 395-5800 395-1151 Kathy Peroff 8001 NEOB 395-3404 395-4817 Treasury - John Parcell 1064 622-2578 622-1772 James Nunns 4043 622-1328 622-0236 Sam Sessions 3108 622-0130 622-0281 Norm Richter 3127 622-0586 622-0281 VP - Katie McGinty 286 OEOB 456-6224 456-6231 Greg Simon 288 OEOB 456-6222 456-6231 CEA - Ray Squitieri 317 OEOB 395-6982 395-6947 DOE - Richard Rosenzweig 7A-257 586-6210 586-7644 EPA - Richard Morgenstern 1215 West Tower 260-4711 260-4852 Jonathan Fox 1204 West Tower 260-7960 260-3684 NEC - Heather Ross 227 OEOB 456-7988 456-7739 Bo Cutter 231 OEOB 456-6630 456-7739