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OCR Page 1 of 44Model predicting effects of S.1415 (McCain)
McCain S.1415: Real Payments & Penalties (billions) total =
$473
Assumptions:
TCRTF & Liscensing Fees (billions) total=
$7
Price Elasticity of Total Demand=
-0.40
Look Back Penalties Not Deductible
Price Elasticity of Teen Prevalence=
-0.60
First Six Payments are not Volume-Adjusted
Annual Effect of Non-price Provisions on Teen Prevalence=
-0.65%
Base Case
Rate at which cost increases are passed through via price incre
100%
Predicted
Real
Real
Real
Real Volume-
Real
Price
Real
Price
Price
Predicted
Predicted
Target
Real
Adjusted
Price
Increase
Price
Increase
Increase
Total
Total
Change
Change
Look
Real Net
Settlement
Increase
Due to
Increase
Due to
Due to
Real
Real
Domestic
in Teen
in Teen
Back
After-tax
Payments
due to
Increased
Due to
Non-
TCRTF &
Price
Retail
Consumption
Prev.
Prev.
Penalties
Profit
Year
($billions)
Payments
Fed. Tax
Look Back
Deductibility
Liscense Fee
Increase
Price
(billion packs)
(percent)
(percent)
($billions)
($billions)
Current
$0.00
$1.95
23.0
$4.5
1999
$10.0
$0.48
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.12
$0.60
$2.55
20.7
-16.2
0
$0.0
$4.6
2000
$14.4
$0.73
$0.10
$0.00
$0.00
$0.12
$0.95
$2.90
19.5
-23.0
0
$0.0
$4.4
2001
$15.4
$0.80
$0.09
$0.00
$0.00
$0.12
$1.01
$2.96
19.3
-24.4
-15
$0.0
$4.3
2002
$17.7
$0.94
$0.14
$0.00
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$3.15
18.7
-27.7
-15
$0.0
$4.2
2003
$21.0
$1.15
$0.14
$0.00
$0.00
$0.12
$1.41
$3.36
18.1
-30.9
-30
$0.0
$4.0
2004
$23.6
$1.33
$0.14
$0.00
$0.00
$0.12
$1.59
$3.54
17.6
-33.4
-30
$0.0
$3.9
2005
$16.8
$0.91
$0.14
$0.00
$0.00
$0.11
$1.16
$3.11
18.4
-28.5
-50
$0.0
$4.2
2006
$16.7
$0.91
$0.14
$0.01
$0.00
$0.11
$1.17
$3.12
18.3
-29.1
-50
$0.1
$4.2
2007
$16.0
$0.91
$0.14
$0.20
$0.11
$0.11
$1.46
$3.41
17.6
-33.3
-50
$3.5
$4.0
2008
$16.0
$0.91
$0.14
$0.16
$0.09
$0.11
$1.40
$3.35
17.6
-33.0
-60
$2.8
$4.0
2009
$16.1
$0.91
$0.14
$0.16
$0.09
$0.04
$1.34
$3.29
17.6
-32.6
-60
$2.9
$4.0
2010
$15.8
$0.91
$0.14
$0.20
$0.11
$0.04
$1.39
$3.34
17.4
-33.7
-60
$3.5
$3.9
2011
$15.7
$0.91
$0.14
$0.20
$0.11
$0.03
$1.39
$3.34
17.3
-34.2
-60
$3.5
$3.9
2012
$15.7
$0.91
$0.14
$0.20
$0.11
$0.03
$1.39
$3.34
17.2
-34.6
-60
$3.5
$3.9
2013
$15.6
$0.91
$0.14
$0.20
$0.11
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
17.1
-35.0
-60
$3.5
$3.9
2014
$15.5
$0.91
$0.14
$0.21
$0.11
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
17.0
-35.5
-60
$3.5
$3.9
2015
$15.4
$0.91
$0.14
$0.21
$0.11
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
16.9
-35.9
-60
$3.5
$3.8
2016
$15.3
$0.91
$0.14
$0.21
$0.11
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
16.8
-36.3
-60
$3.5
$3.8
2017
$15.2
$0.91
$0.14
$0.21
$0.11
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
16.7
-36.8
-60
$3.5
$3.8
2018
$15.1
$0.91
$0.14
$0.21
$0.11
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
16.6
-37.2
-60
$3.5
$3.8
2019
$15.0
$0.91
$0.14
$0.21
$0.11
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
16.5
-37.6
-60
$3.5
$3.7
2020
$14.9
$0.91
$0.14
$0.21
$0.12
$0.03
$1.40
$3.35
16.4
-38.0
-60
$3.5
$3.7
2021
$14.8
$0.91
$0.14
$0.22
$0.12
$0.03
$1.41
$3.36
16.3
-38.4
-60
$3.5
$3.7
2022
$14.7
$0.91
$0.14
$0.22
$0.12
$0.03
$1.41
$3.36
16.2
-38.8
-60
$3.5
$3.7
2023
$14.6
$0.91
$0.14
$0.22
$0.12
$0.03
$1.41
$3.36
16.1
-39.3
-60
$3.5
$3.6
2024
$14.5
$0.91
$0.14
$0.22
$0.12
$0.02
$1.41
$3.36
16.0
-39.7
-60
$3.5
$3.6
Total
$411.4
$61.8
$102.5
% Change
72%
-31%
Real= 1997 dollars
MCCAIN2.WB2, 4/20/98, page 1
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