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Times Mirror
Center for
NEWS Release
The People &
The Press
1875 Eye Street, N.W., Suite 1110
Washington, D.C. 20006
202 293-3126
FOR RELEASE: WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 1994, A.M.
THE PEOPLE, THE PRESS & POLITICS:
THE NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Andrew Kohut, Director
Larry Hugick, Survey Analyst
Robert C. Toth, Senior Associate
Carol Bowman, Director of Research
Kim Parker, Assistant Research Director
Times Mirror Center for The People & The Press
202/293-3126
FOREWORD
A full decade ago, Times Mirror embarked on an ambitious effort to learn more about
what Americans think about the news media.
Seven years ago, we expanded the focus of the program in an attempt to bring greater
precision to the language of politics and public opinion. We did this by identifying the beliefs
and behaviors that underlie political labels and drive political action, and reported the results in
The People, The Press & Politics.
We now further expand the effort by refining the measures we used to gauge voter values
and attitudes. Analysis of those measures has led to the construction of a new typology of the
American voter, which we present as The New Political Landscape.
We do this with the hope that the new study will help all of us to report more precisely
and examine more astutely the political issues of our time, and thereby will help the American
people make more informed choices as we approach the 21st Century.
Robert F. Erburu
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Times Mirror
INTRODUCTION
Reflecting a dramatically changed environment in America and the world, the voter
typology which Times Mirror created in 1987 has been modified to make it more responsive to
the new values and attitudes that affect voter behavior in 1994. We present it as "The People, The
Press and Politics: The New Political Landscape."
Highlights of our findings are given in an Overview, followed by descriptions of the key
building blocks of the new typology. The values and attitudes of the electorate are detailed in
Section 1, and the trends in party identification and party attitudes in Section 2.
The new political typology, based on these values and political self-identification, is then
presented in Section 3, including descriptions of nine different categories of voters dispersed
across the right, center, and left of the political spectrum.
Viewed through the prism of the new typology, the consequences of the new political
landscape are discussed in Section 4: priorities of the electorate; policy issues; voter intentions
and judgments, including trial heats of possible presidential races; and public attitudes toward
institutions, including the media, as well as organizations and movements.
A final section details the methodology by which we arrived at the typology. Addenda
consist of the top-line results of the surveys and the questionnaires used in the polling.
Project participants included Larry Hugick as survey analyst; Robert C. Toth, editor; Carol
Bowman, research director, Carolyn Miller, survey statistician, and Kim Parker, assistant research
director.
Andrew Kohut
Director
2
THE NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
The American electorate is angry, self absorbed, and politically unanchored. Thousands
of interviews with American voters this summer find no clear direction in the public's political
thinking other than frustration with the current system, and an eager responsiveness to alternative
political solutions and appeals.
Times Mirror Center's longitudinal survey, designed to assess the electorate based on
values and underlying attitudes, shows America's political road map less defined by partisan self
identification than in the past. It also reveals that the new economic realities of the country have
reshaped the center of the electorate.
Politically, the two party system is weaker than it was in the 1980s when Times Mirror
began this series of public opinion studies. Specifically, the link between what people believe and
their partisan ties is not nearly as strong now as it was then.
Times Mirror's new political typology finds Republicans more divided on basic values
and political attitudes than in 1987. Tolerance issues and social class divisions are rending the
GOP as cultural conservatism emerges as a more important drawing card for the party than
economic conservatism. The religious right is but one of the divisive elements that confront the
Republican party.
On the other hand, the historic schisms of the Democratic party between working class
conservatives, liberals and disadvantaged groups continue to be underscored by racial issues. The
Democratic party also faces a new challenge posed by younger New Democrats who are less
antagonistic toward business, and more conservative on economic issues than traditional
Democrats.
In this political environment, Independents will play an even more crucial role in the
outcome of elections. The largest bloc of independent voters represent a post-industrial working
class. Their deep skepticism of the political system is rooted in their struggle with the economic
limitations they face. Their pattern of political beliefs is incompatible with a traditional partisan
point of view. They are the sector of the electorate most drawn to a new third political party.
Many other Americans also are attracted to some alternative to the traditional two party
system. The impact on the electorate of Ross Perot's independent candidacy two years ago is still
quite apparent. Perot himself has yet to return to full public favor. But voters are expressing a
great interest in candidates who are political outsiders, and the concept of a third political party
is much more attractive to the electorate than it was in the early 1980s.
3
As a measure of this yearning for an outsider, Ross Perot, despite his tarnished image,
garners as much support in a test election against Bill Clinton and Bob Dole as he did in the last
presidential election. Furthermore, while the public has trouble picking between traditional
politicians Dole and Clinton in a head-to-head matchup, non-pol Colin Powell womps Bill Clinton
by a 10 percentage point margin in a two-way race.
What Americans Believe
Voters frustration with the political system continues to grow, as does animosity toward
the media. But the anger doesn't stop there. The public also has become more polarized on
issues of social policy and cultural change. Increased indifference to the problems of the poor
and minorities, resentment toward immigrants, and more cynicism about what government
programs can achieve characterize the changed public disposition.
Times Mirror's political typology attempts to classify the public into homogeneous groups
based upon the building blocks of political values, attitudes and partisan self identification. These
foundations of the typology have been changing in important ways in recent years.
The Clinton Administration and the economic recovery have failed to stem the
tide of political cynicism. The discontent with Washington that gained momentum
in the late 1980s is even greater now than it was in 1992.
Increasingly, voters say they want traditional politicians to step aside as
experience in politics is seen as a liability rather than a credential. Expressed
support for a third political party is significantly greater than in the past.
Criticism of the news media, especially television news, is sharply higher. Most
notably, a very large percentage of Americans (71%) think the press gets in the
way of society solving it problems rather than helping solve problems (25%).
Voter attitudes are punctuated by increased indifference to the problems of blacks
and poor people. And resentment toward immigrants is widespread.
Public distrust of the effectiveness of government is no less than it was during the
Reagan era. In fact, Americans are more dubious about what government can
achieve than they were when Ronald Reagan was leaving office.
Along the same lines, an early 1990s trend toward growing public support for
social welfare programs has been reversed. The percentage of Americans thinking
the government should take care of needy people fell by 12 percentage points
between 1992 and 1994.
4
Similarly, attitudes toward race have changed direction once again. Times Mirror
polls taken in 1992 after the Rodney King riots found for the first time a majority
of whites thinking that black social progress had been halted. However, the
current poll finds most whites again thinking that blacks continue to make social
progress.
Issues of personal freedom and diversity continue to be divisive in America.
Although in some ways the public is more accepting of homosexuality, Americans
continue to split on whether it is a way of life that should be accepted or
discouraged by society.
The public also remains doggedly two minded about social change. While the vast
majority feels that women should not return to their traditional role in society,
eight in ten say they have old fashioned values about family and marriage, and
three in four think that too many children are sent to day care.
The Political Parties
Reflecting discontent with the Clinton Administration, the Republican party's sagging
fortunes have been reversed somewhat, but the longer term structural changes observed in Times
Mirror's surveys of 1987-1994 suggest that each party has failed as much as succeeded in adding
meaningfully to its base.
Partisan Psychology
Over the past two years, the slight Democratic plurality in party affiliation has
diminished even further. The percentage of Americans self identifying as
Republican is somewhat greater than two years ago. But there is a decided
improvement in the GOP's performance image. Americans once again see the
Republican party compared to the Democrats as better organized, better managers
of government and better at foreign policy. The Republican party has also been
successful in positioning itself as champions of family values and moral/personal
responsibility.
These gains notwithstanding, Americans are hard pressed to choose between the
two parties on bottom line questions. For example, while the GOP is identified
as the party of "virtue," it not seen as governing in a more honest or ethical way
than the Democratic party. More importantly, neither party has a clear advantage
on key dimensions such as selecting good candidates for office, or being able to
bring about the kind of changes the country needs.
Partisan Sociology
The Times Mirror's seven year trend line based on over 50,000 interviews reveals
a Republican party that squandered a significant advantage it held among young
5
people at the beginning of the Bush presidency. But in turn, Democrats have
failed to win over on a more permanent basis the many young voters drawn to
Bill Clinton via MTV in 1992. Today, neither party has an advantage with people
under 30, or with voters 30-49, for that matter. The slight numerical nationwide
advantage held by Democrats results from a lingering preference for the
Democratic party among older voters still influenced by the Kennedy years, or
more distantly, by the New Deal.
While neither party has captured the post-war generations, men and women have
chosen up partisan sides. Perhaps the most enduring political legacy of the Reagan
years is that identification with the Democratic party is today 11 percentage
points higher among women than men. Race continues to matter, too. Although
younger blacks like younger whites are not as drawn to the Democratic party as
much as their parent's generation, there is no indication of black defections to the
GOP since 1987. On the other hand, the GOP's temporary loss of advantage
among whites in 1992-93 has been reversed as the political fortunes of the Clinton
administration have fallen.
A New Political Typology
Times Mirror's system for classifying voters takes into account party affiliation, political
values and attitudes, and measures of political participation. The method employed in the current
study is comparable to the techniques used to develop previous typologies in this series. Through
a statistical procedure homogeneous groups of people are created based on their responses to a
battery of questions.
One of the most striking findings of the new survey is the declining role of the parties
as a framework around which Americans organize their political thinking. Ross Perot's ability
to capture almost one in five votes in the last presidential election sent a message to both parties
that their traditional supporters could not be taken for granted. The new survey shows a widening
divergence between party identification and political values. It reveals a political landscape
transformed by demographic shifts in party allegiances, disillusionment with government, and
growing anxiety about the future:
At the grassroots level, the Democratic Party is depleted and dispirited. The party's
traditional base has been sharply reduced by defection and its failure to attract more
young people to replace the aging FDR coalition. Younger Democratic-oriented groups
lack a strong commitment to the party and have conflicting views on race and moral
issues.
The Republican Party has expanded its base, but in the process may have limited its
prospects for future growth. The influx of religious and cultural conservatives has moved
6
the party's center of gravity to the right, and there are signs that it is fragmenting over
social tolerance issues.
The largest group of Independent voters -- one-fifth of the electorate -- feels estranged
from both major parties and is ready to bolt to a third party, given the opportunity.
The Divided Right
The current classification system observes three kinds of people oriented to the right of
the political spectrum, or to the Republican party. Two of the three groups, Enterprisers and
Moralists, hold similarly conservative values in many areas - but affluent Enterprisers are more
conservative in economic, pro-business terms and they are more reliably Republican. Moralists
are more numerous since many are Independents who only lean to the Republican party. They
are somewhat more religious, much more intolerant and much more nationalistic. Yet Moralists
are less doctrinaire about government dealing with social issues, and are critical of business.
Libertarians are the smallest group on the right. They are pro-business, and anti-
government, but very tolerant, and not very religious. These well-educated voters are drifting
away from the Republican party - attracted away by interest in an alternative political approach
and pushed away in reaction to the Christian Right. (A majority of Evangelical Republicans are
Moralists and one in four are classified as Enterprisers.)
The Detached Center
The middle of the political spectrum is dominated by an evolving swing group in
American politics. New Economy Independents make up nearly one-fifth of the electorate. They
are largely composed of high school graduates, under 50 years of age, who are under-employed
and not optimistic about their job opportunities. Down on the political parties, their political
values are conflicted in traditional terms. While opposed to government regulation, they are
strong environmentalists. They believe in social welfare programs, yet are not sympathetic to
blacks. They are nationalistic, but not militaristic, and although religious, they are moderate on
social issues, such as homosexuality.
Politically they are the kind of Americans most attracted to a new political party. In 1992,
three in ten voted for Ross Perot, and he still has great appeal to this constituency.
Demographically, this financially pressured group is heavily female with particularly high
concentrations of single mothers. More than two in three (68%) say they have jobs that pay them
too little.
Embittereds are distrustful of the political system, and the power structure more broadly.
They feel little personal empowerment, and have an even more difficult economic future than
New Economy Independents. The Embittereds are socially intolerant and quite religious. A
relatively small group in numbers, they include many blacks and other groups of disadvantaged
7
people. Many have children, and many are single parents with strong family concerns.
Geographically they are concentrated in the Midwest and South.
Bystanders are democracy's hardcore dropouts. Young and poorly educated they express
almost no interest in national issues or politics. They neither vote, nor care about most major
issues of the day.
The Not So Left Side
As in the past, Times Mirror finds more variation in values on the left, or Democratic side
of the spectrum. However, as on the right, only one group, The Partisan Poor can be considered
hardcore party loyalists. Poor people who believe in the "system" and are strong advocates of
government social programs are the bedrock of the Democratic party. This group contains many
poorly educated, older blacks and whites who are critical of business, religious and intolerant.
New Dealers are also older and religious, but they are more nationalistic and better off
financially. Strongly conservative on social issues and race, New Dealers are more often found
in the South and in small towns. Their ties to the Democratic party are longstanding, but they
have been unfaithful to the party many times in the past with Reagan, Bush, and most recently,
Ross Perot.
New Democrats have less of a Democratic tradition. They are strong environmentalists,
but moderate on most other issues. They are less critical of business and other institutions than
most other Democrats usually are. They are middle age, middle income and middle brow. While
they tend to support social welfare programs, they are not particularly sympathetic to the
problems of blacks. Not fully comfortable as Democrats, many supported George Bush in 1988.
New Democrats are not strongly enthusiastic about Bill Clinton's performance.
Seculars think like Democrats, vote Democratic, but like to call themselves Independents.
Socially tolerant, not religious, they have a positive attitude toward both minorities and
immigrants. Distrustful of corporate America, these younger better educated voters are not
reluctant to embrace the liberal label. Most often found on the East and West Coasts, they are
strong environmentalists and are Bill Clinton loyalists.
Implications and Other Findings
The new voter typology presents a different picture of party electoral strength than was
seen seven years ago. In 1987, core Democratic groups made up 41% of likely voters, while core
GOP groups accounted for 30%. GOP advantages in party loyalty and turnout among its core
constituencies and its greater appeal to Independent voters were found to shift the balance of
electoral strength toward de facto parity.
After the partisan de-alignment of the last decade, loyalist Democrats no longer
outnumber loyalist Republicans. In the new typology, the three Republican-oriented groups on
8
the right account for 36% of all registered voters. The four Democratic-oriented groups add up
to 34%. The slight Democratic advantage in party identification still evident in surveys now
depends on the leanings of two Independent-oriented groups, both dissatisfied with the state of
the nation and Clinton's job performance.
The greater enthusiasm for the party and its candidates still evident on the Republican side
is even more significant now that the Democrats' numeric edge is history -- and may help explain
its nearly unbroken GOP record of success in local elections since Clinton took office.
The size and character of the New Economy Independents category gives testimony to
the sustained political importance of the jobs issue. In that regard, the current survey
shows voters continuing to say that President Clinton should give as much priority to
improving the jobs situation as to crime, and higher priority to jobs than health care
reform and other top issues. The difficult wage problems of the post-industrial working
class are an important reason why the current economic recovery has paid no political
dividends to Bill Clinton.
Voters with all types of political beliefs are attracted to outsiders in politics and to the
idea of a new third political party. However, New Economy Independents are the most
disposed in this direction, based on past behavior and current attitudes. Perot garnered
nearly 30% of the vote among this group of voters and two-thirds favor a third party.
In the future, class may divide the Republican party as much as religion seems to now.
Moralist Independents drawn to the party on cultural grounds are suspicious of business
and more open than traditional Republicans to social welfarism. For example, in the
current health care reform debate most Enterpisers oppose an employer mandate while
most Moralists favor this approach.
Only a small group of voters, Seculars, embrace a full set of liberal beliefs including:
tolerance, a sympathetic view of minorities, a belief in government solutions to social
problems, and strong environmentalism. But hardline business-oriented conservatives,
Enterprisers, are only somewhat more numerous. Libertarians who are the most
ideologically pure are also the smallest group in the voter classification scheme.
New Economy Independents are the most important swing constituency by virtue of size
and character, but other groups in the electorate are also volatile. The moderate tone of
New Democrats make them susceptible to Republican appeals. This is also a group that
is not particularly sympathetic to poor people and minority groups. On the right, the
strongly held values of Libertarians are not consistent with party loyalty.
9
The Times Mirror Survey finds few indications of generational politics, other than the
broad distinctions made between the pre-World War II, and post-World War II
generations. Middle age Americans, and those under 30 years old are not distinguished
clearly from one another in political terms. Unlike in 1987, the analysis does not find
a cluster of political values explicitly connected to the political and social revolts of the
'60s, nor does it reveal a Generation X style of political thinking.
As with partisanship, gender is a more important factor in political thinking than
generation. Every group on the right is dominated by men, and all other groups, except
the conservative New Dealers, contain more women. Men are more critical of
government, less compassionate, and more disposed to the use of military force. Women
are more tolerant of cultural diversity, but less supportive of freedom of expression.
Women are more financially pressured than men, and they constitute 60% of the
underemployed New Economy Independent category.
While there is little variation in the partisanship of African Americans nationwide, Times
Mirror's analysis found substantial numbers of blacks in four very different values
categories. The largest number are the Partisan Poor (26%) who have faith in the
"system," and rely on the Democratic party. This group included many older blacks. A
significant number of poor blacks (16%) who have less faith in the system fell into the
Embittered category. Middle class blacks are most often in the New Democrat category.
Compared to other blacks, they hold much more conservative views, particularly on
economic issues. Sixteen percent of blacks were classified as New Democrats, which was
the same percentage of blacks that were categorized as New Economy Independents.
10
TYPOLOGY GROUP PROFILES
11
THE DIVIDED RIGHT
ENTERPRISERS
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Enterprisers
10% OF ADULT POPULATION
12% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 74% Republican; 21% Independent, Lean Republican
COMMENTS: This fiercely partisan Republican group's politics are driven by economic issues, but
Enterprisers are also generally sympathetic to the religious right's social issue agenda. Enterprisers are
more vocal and politically active than any other group.
DEFINING VALUES: Anti-government, pro-business and anti-social welfare, with a strong faith in
America. Not environmentalist. Moderate to low in social tolerance.
TOTAL
ENTERPRISERS
Key Beliefs:
Government is almost always
wasteful & inefficient.
66
86
Most Corporations make a fair &
reasonable amount of profit.
43
88
The Government today can't afford
to do much more to help the needy.
47
81
WHO THEY ARE: Predominately white (97%), male (60%) and middle-aged. Married (70%), college
educated (63%), relatively affluent and financially secure.
WHERE THEY LIVE: Dispersed by region, but more prevalent in suburbia.
MEDIA HABITS: More likely to read business magazines, watch TV news and listen to radio news and talk
radio. Enterprisers are Rush Limbaugh's core radio audience and generally dislike the national news media.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: Tends to follow the financial markets and use personal computers. A civic-minded
group inclined to do volunteer work for charity.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Knows more and cares more about politics than any other group. Has the highest
voter registration, political participation and vocalization rates.
1992 VOTE: 78% Bush, 14% Perot, 6% Clinton
KEY ISSUES: Pro-business views are evident in solid opposition to health care reform with employer mandates
and tax increases to reduce the deficit; also in solid support for free trade agreements and reducing the capital
gains tax. Enterprisers are more conservative on social issues than might be expected, expressing strong
disapproval of federally-funded abortions and solid support for a school prayer amendment.
HEROES: Ronald Reagan, Colin Powell, Rush Limbaugh
HIGH NEGATIVES: Bill and Hillary Clinton, Ted Kennedy, Louis Farrakhan, gay rights activists
12
MORALISTS
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Moralists
18% OF ADULT POPULATION
20% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 65% Republican; 27% Independent, Lean Republican
COMMENTS: The size of this group has almost doubled since 1987, as more religious and cultural
conservatives -- many of them former Democrats -- have identified with the GOP. They are drawn to the party
as a defender of traditional moral values.
DEFINING VALUES: Religious, socially intolerant and opposed to social welfare. Militaristic and
xenophobic. Critical of big business as well as big government.
TOTAL
MORALISTS
Key Beliefs:
Government is almost always
wasteful & inefficient.
66
71
Business corporations make too
much profit.
52
60
Homosexuality is a way of life that
should be discouraged by society.
49
79
WHO THEY ARE: Predominately white (95%), middle-aged and married (66%). Average incomes and
education levels. Four in ten are white Evangelical Protestants, more than are found in any other typology
group.
WHERE THEY LIVE: More numerous in the Midwest, South and rural America
MEDIA HABITS: Reads newspapers, tunes into TV and radio news at average rates. Listens to Rush
Limbaugh at above average rates.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: One of the groups most likely to attend Bible study or prayer group meetings and visit
shopping malls
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Moderately high attentiveness to politics and voter turnout. Average political
knowledge and vocalization.
1992 VOTE: 66% Bush, 20% Perot, 14% Clinton
KEY ISSUES: Strongly favors a constitutional amendment to permit prayer in the schools and mandatory
sentencing for violent criminals ("three strikes and you're out"). Solidly disapproves of permitting gays to serve
openly in the military and using government funds to pay for abortions.
HEROES: Ronald Reagan, Colin Powell
HIGH NEGATIVES: Gay rights activists
13
LIBERTARIANS
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Enterprisers crossed with Seculars
4% OF ADULT POPULATION
4% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 54% Republican; 28% Independent, Lean Republican
COMMENTS: Has a Republican lineage and voting history, yet is not completely comfortable with the party.
The extremism of the religious right registers as a major source of dissatisfaction. Many defected to Perot in
1992. A majority are now receptive to the idea of a third major party.
DEFINING VALUES: Pro-business, anti-government and anti-social welfare but highly tolerant and moderately
environmentalist. Scores very low on religious faith and has a cynical view of politicians.
TOTAL
LIBERTARIANS
Key Beliefs:
Government is almost always
wasteful & inefficient.
66
84
Most corporations make a fair &
reasonable amount of profit.
43
80
Public school libraries should be
allowed to carry any books they
51
76
want.
WHO THEY ARE: Predominately white (97%) and male (73%). Highly educated, affluent and financially
secure. One of the groups least likely to have children under 18.
WHERE THEY LIVE: More numerous in suburban communities and the far West.
MEDIA HABITS: High readership rates for business magazines. Above average rates for newspaper
readership and radio news consumption. Cable television (CNN, C-Span) is a preferred source for news and
information.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: Enjoys the outdoors (hiking, camping), but also likes to go out to movies, concerts and
nightclubs. Tends to closely follow the financial markets and use personal computers at home.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Scores high in attentiveness to politics and political knowledge, but votes at only
average rates.
1992 VOTE: 52% Bush, 27% Perot, 20% Clinton
KEY ISSUES: Takes fiscally conservative positions in favor of cutting the capital gains tax and limiting welfare
benefits; rejects new taxes as a means of deficit reduction. But has socially liberal views on the issues of
federally-funded abortions and gays in the military. No group is more supportive (88%) of term limitations for
members of Congress.
HEROES: Colin Powell
HIGH NEGATIVES: Ted Kennedy, Louis Farrakhan, Jerry Falwell
14
THE DETACHED CENTER
NEW ECONOMY INDEPENDENTS
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: None
18% OF ADULT POPULATION
19% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 52% Independent, 27% Democrat, 17% Republican
COMMENTS: Not anchored in either major party, these are the most important swing voters in the new
electorate. While most of them have jobs, their middle class status seems precarious in the post-industrial
economy, and the future uncertain, at best. Unreceptive to traditional partisan appeals, New Economy
Independents were one of Perot's two best groups in 1992. Today it is the group most supportive of a third
major party.
DEFINING VALUES: Characterized by conflicting values. Not believers in government regulation but
strongly environmentalist. Pro-social welfare but not especially sympathetic to the problems of blacks.
Somewhat xenophobic, but with a very low militancy level. Associate themselves with fundamental
religious beliefs, yet are highly tolerant of homosexuality.
TOTAL
NEW ECONOMY INDEPENDENTS
Key Beliefs:
Most elected officials don't care
what people like me think.
64
84
Government regulation of business
usually does more harm than good.
54
68
Stricter environmental regulations
are worth the cost.
62
79
WHO THEY ARE: Mostly female, young to middle aged, and employed. Less likely to own their homes;
more likely to be divorced. Despite an average income level, it is a very financially pressured group. Four
in ten are working women; 11% are single mothers. Includes some white collar professionals as well as low-to-
mid-level service workers.
WHERE THEY LIVE: Widely dispersed, but somewhat less prevalent in the South.
MEDIA HABITS: Average in newspaper readership, TV and radio news consumption.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: Somewhat more likely to read books for pleasure, go out to nightclubs.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Slightly below average rates of interest in public affairs, political knowledge and
vocalization. Only about a third claim to always vote.
1992 VOTE: 45% Clinton, 29% Perot, 24% Bush
KEY ISSUES: Split its vote in 1992, but endorses much of the Clinton political agenda. Solidly supports health
care reform with employer mandates, stricter gun control laws, new government spending for job training
programs and gay rights to serve in the military. Also favors federal funding of abortions, mandatory
sentencing for violent criminals and Congressional term limitations.
HEROES: No real political heroes, but gives above average ratings to Jesse Jackson, Ross Perot and Al Gore.
HIGH NEGATIVES: Jerry Falwell
15
BYSTANDERS
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Bystanders
8% OF ADULT POPULATION
0% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 52% Independent, 24% Democrat, 15% Republican
COMMENTS: These are Americans who chose not to participate in the political system or are not eligible to
do so (non-citizens).
DEFINING VALUES: Despite their lack of interest in politics and public affairs, this group claims a
commitment to environmentalism.
TOTAL
BYSTANDERS
Key Characteristics:
Follow what's going on in
government and public affairs only
now & then/hardly at all.
21
57
Votes seldom/never.
15
99
WHO THEY ARE: Extremely young (51% under 30), and somewhat more female (58%), with high
concentrations of Hispanics (11%). One of the least well educated, poorest and most financially pressured
groups.
WHERE THEY LIVE: Widely dispersed, but somewhat less prevalent in the Midwest.
MEDIA HABITS: Very low rates of news consumption, especially newspaper readership.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: The group most likely to go out to nightclubs; high viewership of TV soap operas.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Most in this group are completely uninformed about politics. Political participation
and vocalization is virtually zero.
1992 VOTE: 96% didn't vote.
KEY ISSUES: Less likely to favor harsh measures targeted at illegal immigrants.
HEROES: None
HIGH NEGATIVES: Tobacco companies
16
THE EMBITTERED
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: None
7% OF ADULT POPULATION
7% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 39% Independent; 36% Democrat; 16% Republican
COMMENTS: This very poor group with family ties to the Democratic Party lacks the Partisan Poor's faith
in the party to better their lives. Many of the Embittered also have doubts about the competence of Bill Clinton
and the Democrats and feel estranged from the party on moral issues. Few of these struggling people, however,
feel welcome in the GOP, the party associated with the rich and powerful.
DEFINING VALUES: Distrusts government, politicians and corporations. Religious and socially intolerant.
Believes strongly that discrimination is the major barrier to black progress, but is not a strong proponent of
social welfare programs.
TOTAL
THE EMBITTERED
Key Beliefs:
Government is almost always
wasteful & inefficient.
66
73
Most elected officials don't care
what people like me think.
64
86
Hard work & determination are no
guarantee of success for most
people.
30
44
Business corporations make too
much profit.
52
60
WHO THEY ARE: A low-income, very financially pressured group with low levels of education. About one-
fourth are African-American. Middle aged, with family responsibilities. Four in ten have children under 18;
11% are single mothers. Although more likely to be labor union members, the Embittered tend to work at low-
skill, low-wage jobs.
WHERE THEY LIVE: Most live in the Midwest and Southern regions, and in small cities, towns or rural
areas.
MEDIA HABITS: Average readership of newspapers; average viewership of TV news.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: One of the groups most likely to attend Bible study or prayer group meetings and attend
religious services on a regular basis. Gospel music and jazz have special appeal.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Registers to vote at average rates, but rates below average in voter turnout, political
knowledge and vocalization.
1992 VOTE: 51% Clinton, 27% Bush, 21% Perot,
KEY ISSUES: Solidly favors a school prayer amendment; opposes government funding of abortions. Divided
on the issue of gays in the military.
HEROES: JFK
HIGH NEGATIVES: Insurance companies, MTV, Rush Limbaugh
17
THE "NOT SO" LEFT
SECULARS
OLD TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Seculars
9% OF ADULT POPULATION
10% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 46% Democrat; 31% Independent, Lean Democrat
COMMENTS: The only group to embrace the "liberal" label and to report voting for Dukakis in 1988, it
has Democratic values and is driven by social issues. The association of the religious and cultural
conservatives with the GOP makes that party a much less attractive alternative. Still, many Seculars prefer
to distance themselves from partisan politics and call themselves Independents.
DEFINING VALUES: The most socially tolerant group. Very low expression of religious faith and church
attendance. Sympathetic toward minorities and immigrants. Not politically alienated and moderately pro-
government; distrusting of large corporations. Has a very low militancy level and a strong commitment to
the environment.
TOTAL
SECULARS
Key Beliefs:
I don't believe we will have to answer for our
sins on Judgment Day.
16
73
Racial discrimination is the main reason why
black people can't get ahead these days.
32
62
Homosexuality is a way of life that should be
accepted by society.
46
91
WHO THEY ARE: Mostly white (90%); primarily baby boomers and members of Generation X (76% under
50). Highly educated and affluent, but less financially secure than GOP-oriented upscale groups. Less likely
to be home owners and have children under 18. More than a third have never married; 11% are Jewish.
WHERE THEY LIVE: Concentrated in cities and suburbs on the East and West coasts.
MEDIA HABITS: Tends to rely more on newspapers and radio for news and information. This is National
Public Radio's core audience. Not much of a TV news group, but scores high in viewership of MacNeil-Lehrer
and C-Span.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: A sophisticated group with varied interests. Nearly half have home computers. Most
likely to exercise regularly, read books for pleasure and attend theater or classical music concerts. Four in ten
see movies regularly. Musical tastes include contemporary rock, classical and jazz. Reflecting their social
conscience, over half (56%) do volunteer work for charity.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Voter turnout and registration rates are above average. Political knowledge is high,
but not as high as upscale Republican groups. Interest in public affairs is only slightly above average; average
in its political vocalization.
1992 VOTE: 72% Clinton, 14% Perot, 11% Bush
KEY ISSUES: No group is more supportive of government funding for abortions; no group is more opposed
to a school prayer amendment. Also strongly supports gun control legislation and gay rights. Gives
overwhelming support to new government spending for job training programs. Supports free trade agreements.
HEROES: Hillary Rodham Clinton
HIGH NEGATIVES: Rush Limbaugh, Jerry Falwell, Oliver North, Louis Farrakhan, tobacco companies
18
NEW DEMOCRATS
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: A Democratic version of the Upbeats
10% OF ADULT POPULATION
8% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 62% Democrat; 19% Independent, Lean Democrat
COMMENTS: A group targeted by Bill Clinton when he launched his presidential campaign. Most of these
middle class moderates voted for Bush in '88, but switched to Clinton in '92. Clinton has failed to win them
over as President, however, and they are not strongly committed to the Democratic Party.
DEFINING VALUES: More favorable toward business than other Democratic groups, and differs with party
liberals on race, rejecting discrimination as the major barrier to black progress. Their pro-government and
environmentalist views, however, are at home in the party. Religious, but not intolerant.
TOTAL
NEW DEMOCRATS
Key Beliefs:
Most corporations make a fair &
43
66
reasonable amount of profit.
Government often does a better job than
people give it credit for.
31
69
Blacks who can't get ahead in this
country are mostly responsible for their
own condition.
59
70
WHO THEY ARE: Mostly female (60%); includes a somewhat higher proportion of racial minorities (18%)
than the population at large. The Democratic-oriented group most likely to be married with children, and to
own their homes. Tend to work in health care, education and social service occupations. Only average in
household income and education, but feels low financial pressure. Includes nearly equal proportions of white
Evangelical Protestants (24%) and white Catholics (25%).
WHERE THEY LIVE: Widely dispersed by region and type of community.
MEDIA HABITS: About average in newspaper readership and TV news viewership rates. Above average
viewership of shows like 60 Minutes and 20/20, tabloid TV shows like Hard Copy, and MTV. Reads
supermarket tabloids.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: Somewhat more likely to attend Bible study meetings, watch TV soaps, and go to
shopping malls.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Very low political knowledge and vocalization rates. Registers at above average
rates but is only average in voter turnout.
1992 VOTE: 68% Clinton, 15% Perot, 15% Bush
KEY ISSUES: Sides with the majority on most issues. Belief in government activism, however, is evident in
above average support for health care reform with employer mandates and new government spending for job
training programs. Also more supportive of gun control legislation and using military force in Haiti.
HEROES: Hillary Rodham Clinton, Colin Powell
HIGH NEGATIVES: Rush Limbaugh
19
NEW DEALERS
ORIGINAL TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: New Dealers
7% OF ADULT POPULATION
8% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 82% Democrat; 12% Lean Democrat
COMMENTS: Once a key part of FDR's New Deal coalition, and a beneficiary of government programs for
the elderly, this group is nonetheless disenchanted with today's politics, and is more disapproving of Clinton's
job performance than other Democratic-oriented groups. Its numbers have been depleted by aging and the
postwar shift to the GOP.
DEFINING VALUES: Differs sharply from other Democratic-oriented groups in their strongly conservative
views on race and social welfare programs. Strong in religious belief; moderate in social tolerance. "Peace
through strength" and "my country right or wrong" still ring true even after the fall of Soviet Communism.
Holds some faith in government as a force for good but distrusts politicians and big business.
TOTAL
NEW DEALERS
Key Beliefs:
Blacks who can't get ahead in this
country are mostly responsible for their
own conditions.
59
83
Poor people today have it easy because
they can get government benefits
without doing anything in return.
53
66
The best way to ensure peace is through
military strength.
36
56
WHO THEY ARE: The oldest group in the new electorate (average age is 56 years); one-third are over 65.
High concentrations of labor union members; one of the groups most likely to have manufacturing jobs. Three-
quarters have no college training. Have very low income levels but feel only moderate financial pressure.
WHERE THEY LIVE: More numerous in the South, and in small towns and rural areas.
MEDIA HABITS: Above average newspaper readership and TV news viewership rates. Enjoys watching 60
Minutes and other TV newsmagazines as well as Hard Copy and other tabloid TV shows.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: Country/Western music is a strong favorite. One of the groups least likely to own
personal computers.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Limited political knowledge and interest in public affairs. Political vocalization is
below average. But only the Enterprisers turn out to vote at higher rates.
1992 VOTE: 69% Clinton, 17% Perot, 13% Bush
KEY ISSUES: Strongly supports the use of military force, if necessary, to stop North Korea from developing
nuclear weapons. Favors a school prayer amendment and opposes federally-funded abortions. Favors health
care reform with employer mandates.
HEROES: JFK, FDR, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore
HIGH NEGATIVES: Jerry Falwell
20
PARTISAN POOR
OLD TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Partisan Poor
7% OF ADULT POPULATION
8% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY ID: 89% Democrat; 10% Independent, Lean Democrat
COMMENTS: Another aging group with its roots in FDR's New Deal coalition. These disadvantaged
Americans are the kind of people who have been targets of Democratic social programs. It is the group most
loyal to Bill Clinton and the Democrats today.
DEFINING VALUES: Strongly believes more government spending is needed to help the poor. Sees
discrimination holding back black progress. Displays a high level of militancy. Big business is viewed
negatively; government is seen as an ally. Very religious and socially intolerant.
TOTAL
PARTISAN POOR
Key Beliefs:
The government should do more to help
needy Americans, even if means going
deeper into debt.
48
74
Racial discrimination is the main reason why
many black people can't get ahead these
days.
32
61
Business corporations make too much profit.
52
77
WHO THEY ARE: Very poor (44% have household incomes under $20,000) and financially pressured.
Nearly three-fourths have never been to college; 41% are non-white. The second oldest typology group, with
an average age of 52 years. A heavily blue collar group, it includes skilled tradesmen, construction workers and
service workers.
WHERE THEY LIVE: Nearly half (46%) live in the South.
MEDIA HABITS: A television-dependent group. High viewership of TV news magazines like 60 Minutes,
tabloid TV shows like Hard Copy, and MTV. Less likely to read daily newspapers but more likely to read
supermarket tabloids.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: More likely to attend Bible study meetings, watch TV soaps,
and go to shopping malls. Gospel music and R & B have special appeal.
POLITICAL ACTIVISM: Very low political knowledge and vocalization rates. But registers and votes at
average to above average rates.
1992 VOTE: 82% Clinton, 9% Perot, 8% Bush
KEY ISSUES: Strongly favors new government spending for job training programs; the group most opposed
to placing limits on welfare. Solidly supports health care reform with employer mandates; strongly favors a
school prayer amendment.
HEROES: JFK, FDR, Jimmy Carter, Bill and Hillary Clinton
HIGH NEGATIVES: Rush Limbaugh
21
SECTION 1: POLITICAL VALUES AND ATTITUDES
The political values and attitudes held by the American electorate, which we have followed
closely in Times Mirror surveys for seven years, are among the keystones of the new typology.
The Anti-Politics, Anti-Government Mood
One of the most significant changes we have seen in American political attitudes over the last
seven years is the sharp increase in alienation, cynicism and general discontent with the political
system. While substantial majorities of the public expressed distrust and displeasure with
government and politicians in our 1987 survey, we have seen a significant intensification of those
feelings in recent years. Today an anti-government mood pervades nearly all segments of the
public and characterizes much of the public discourse on politics and policy.
By some measures, the public is feeling more negative toward government and further
alienated politically than even two years ago. Our 1994 survey found only 33% of the public
agreeing that most elected officials care what people like them think, down from 36% in 1992
and 47% in 1987. More strikingly, only 42% now say they believe the government is really run
for the benefit of all people, compared to 57% in 1987 -- a 15-point drop.
Widespread political alienation has given rise to a new emphasis on what might be called
"outsiderism:" the belief that new leaders are better than old ones and that experience in politics
is more a vice that a virtue. In 1994, 60% of those surveyed agreed that we need new people
in Washington, even if they are not effective and experienced politicians. This compares to 44%
who agreed in 1987.
In 1992, Ross Perot rode the public wave of distrust and managed to win more votes for
president than any independent or third party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt. That year also
saw the highest number of voluntary retirements from the House of Representatives in the post-
war era and the lowest reelection rate in the House since the watershed 1974 election. This
evidence of how the public's political attitudes impact election returns suggests comparable results
may be forthcoming in 1994.
The personal and political scandals which have become so much the focus of the media's
coverage of politics and government reinforce the public's already cynical views. Congressional
check bouncing, Whitewater, Paula Corbin Jones, and Dan Rostenkowski are only a sampling of
scandalous political stories that have contributed to the widespread distrust and hostility toward
national politicians in recent years.
POLITICAL ALIENATION
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
Generally speaking, elected officials
in Washington lose touch with the
people pretty quickly
Agree
73
76
78
84
83
Completely
22
26
30
35
39
Disagree
24
22
19
15
16
Don't know
3
2
3
1
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
22
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
Most elected officials care what
people like me think
Agree
47
47
44
36
33
Disagree
49
51
53
62
66
Don't know
4
2
3
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
The government is really run for
the benefit of all the people
Agree
57
53
52
44
42
Disagree
39
44
45
54
57
Don't know
4
3
3
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Voting gives people like me some say
about how government runs things
Agree
78
75
73
N/A
66
Completely
23
26
23
N/A
24
Disagree
19
23
25
N/A
32
Don't know
3
2
2
N/A
2
Total
100
100
100
100
People like me don't have any
say about what the government does
Agree
52
55
57
50
54
Disagree
46
44
42
49
46
Don't know
2
1
1
1
*
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.22. a,b,c,d and m)
OUTSIDERISM
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
It is time for Washington politicians
to step aside and make room for
new leaders
Agree
62
68
61
84
79
Completely
16
26
21
38
34
Disagree
29
25
30
14
18
Don't know
9
7
9
2
3
Total
100
100
100
100
100
We need new people in Washington even if
they are not effective as experienced
politicians
Agree
44
51
47
56
60
Disagree
48
43
47
41
38
Don't know
8
6
6
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.22q and v)
Elected officials are not the only group who are the focus of public anger and dissatisfaction.
Federal agencies and their employees are also held in lower esteem by most Americans now than
a decade ago. Nearly 70% of the public now believes that something run by the government is
23
usually inefficient and wasteful, that the federal government controls too much of our daily lives,
and that dealing with a government agency is often not worth the trouble.
BUREAUCRACY
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
When something is run by the government
it is usually inefficient and wasteful
Agree
63
66
67
70
69
Disagree
31
29
29
28
30
Don't know
6
5
4
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
The federal government controls too
much of our daily lives
Agree
58
61
62
64
69
Disagree
37
36
34
34
30
Don't know
5
3
4
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Dealing with a federal government agency
is often not worth the trouble
Agree
58
63
65
64
69
Disagree
32
31
28
31
28
Don't know
10
6
7
5
3
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Government regulation of business usually
does more harm than good
Agree
55
57
58
61
63
Disagree
34
35
33
33
33
Don't know
11
8
9
6
4
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.22i, k, I and r)
Increased cynicism, mistrust and alienation, however, have not diminished the electorate's
belief in the importance of voting or its interest in politics and national affairs. If anything,
people seem energized by their anger. They show, for example, a greater interest in politics and
a greater willingness to participate now than in 1987. Sixty-six percent of the respondents to our
1994 survey said they "completely agree" it is their duty as a citizen to always vote, compared
to 46% who felt that way in 1987.
Furthermore, there was a modest increase in voter turnout in the 1992 presidential election:
just over 55% of the public voted in '92, compared to 50% in 1988. And, as a 1992 post-
election Times Mirror survey revealed, the American electorate felt better about itself and better
about the campaign process than it had four years earlier.
24
VOTING AND INTEREST
IN POLITICS
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
I feel it's my duty as a citizen
to always vote
Agree
85
88
85
91
93
Completely
46
56
50
69
66
Disagree
12
9
13
8
7
Don't know
3
3
2
1
*
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I'm interested in keeping up
with national affairs
Agree
81
86
82
91
89
Completely
28
39
33
51
46
Disagree
15
12
16
8
11
Don't know
4
2
2
1
#
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I'm pretty interested in
following local politics
Agree
70
72
70
73
76
Completely
16
21
17
26
24
Disagree
26
27
29
26
23
Don't know
4
1
1
1
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I feel guilty when I don't
get a chance to vote
Agree
66
69
67
69
70
Completely
25
32
30
39
38
Disagree
28
26
30
25
27
Don't know
6
5
3
6
3
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.52u, V, X and z)
Economic Attitudes And Faith In America
The ups and downs experienced by the U.S. economy over the past seven years are
understandably reflected in the public's views on personal finances, as well as its faith in
America's economic future.
Today 64% of Americans say they are pretty well satisfied with the way things are going for
them financially. Fifty-eight percent felt that way in 1990 and in 1992 when the economy was
in recession. While 53% of the public agreed that money was one of their most important
concerns in 1990, only 40% say they feel that way in 1994. And the percentage of respondents
who said they often don't have enough money to make ends meet fell from 52% in 1992 to 43%
in 1994.
Despite the overall improvement in the personal financial picture of Americans since 1992,
some groups have fared worse than others. Younger Americans (age 18-29), for example, are
most likely to say they often don't have enough money to make ends meet, and least likely to
25
be satisfied with the way things are going for them financially. This group also shows much less
positive change in attitudes from 1992 to 1994 than do other age groups.
While minorities, including blacks, feel better about their personal financial circumstances
now compared to two years ago, they continue to express more negative attitudes in this regard
than the public overall. Only 44% of non-whites (blacks, Asians and others) said they are satisfied
with the way things are going for them financially this year, compared to 64% of all respondents;
and while 43% of the public said they often don't have enough money to make ends meet, 55%
of non-whites feel that way.
PERSONAL FINANCES
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
I'm pretty well satisfied with the way
Things are going for me financially
Agree
63
65
58
58
64
Disagree
35
34
41
41
35
Don't know
2
1
1
1
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Money is one of my most important
concerns
Agree
47
52
53
N/A
40
Disagree
51
47
46
N/A
60
Don't know
2
1
1
N/A
*
Total
100
100
100
100
I often don't have enough money to
make ends meet
Agree
43
45
47
52
43
Disagree
55
54
52
47
56
Don't know
2
1
1
1
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
PERSONAL
Total
18-29
30-49
50+
FINANCES
1992
1994
1992
1994
1992
1994
1992
1994
I'm pretty well satisfied
with the way things are
going for me financially
Agree
57
64
54
53
52
63
65
72
Disagree
42
35
46
47
47
37
33
26
Don't know
1
1
*
*
1
*
2
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
I often don't have
enough money to make
ends meet
Agree
52
43
54
49
54
43
50
39
Disagree
47
56
45
51
45
56
48
61
Don't know
1
1
1
*
1
1
2
*
-
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.52r, S and t)
26
In addition to looking at people's attitudes toward their personal finances, we also measured
their faith in America's economic future. American exceptionalism clearly goes beyond mere
economic considerations, but attitudes in that regard are related, at least in part, to trends in the
economy and the public's sense of economic well-being.
Large majorities of the public continue to believe that as Americans we can always find a
way to solve our problems and get what we want. Sixty-eight percent expressed that sentiment
in 1994, an equal proportion did so in 1987.
Faith in the future growth and prosperity of the U.S. was shaken somewhat by the early '90s
recession and the economic anxiety resulting from widespread corporate restructuring. That faith
appears to have rebounded marginally since then but has not returned to pre-recession levels. In
1994, 62% of the public agree that there are no real limits to national economic growth,
compared to 58% in 1992 and 67% in 1987.
AMERICAN
EXCEPTIONALISM
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
As Americans we can always find a way
to solve our problems and get what
we want
Agree
68
66
65
66
68
Disagree
28
30
30
32
30
Don't know
4
4
5
2
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I don't believe that there are any real
limits to growth in this country today
Agree
67
64
65
58
62
Disagree
28
32
30
38
36
Don't know
5
4
5
4
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.22t and u)
Those living in the East -- where the recession hit particularly hard -- are among the most
pessimistic about our ability as a nation to solve the problems we face today. Middle income
Americans express more pessimistic attitudes about future growth in this country than do those
in the upper and lower income brackets.
AMERICAN
Total
East
Midwest
South
West
EXCEPTIONALISM
1992
1994
1992
1994
1992
1994
1992
1994
1992
1994
As Americans we can
always find a way to
solve our problems and
get what we want
Agree
66
68
67
60
65
70
67
71
67
67
Disagree
32
30
32
38
33
26
31
27
31
33
Don't know
2
2
1
2
2
4
2
2
2
*
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
27
Total
< $30K
$30-49,999
$50K+
1992
1994
1992
1994
1992
1994
1992
1994
I don't believe that there
are any real limits to
growth in this country
today
Agree
59
61
56
61
61
55
61
65
Disagree
37
37
38
36
38
43
37
34
Don't know
4
2
6
3
1
2
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Despite the prolonged recession and widespread layoffs resulting from corporate downsizing,
the public's attitudes toward big business have remained stable and relatively positive. Today
some 78% agree that the strength of this country is mostly based on the success of American
business; 26% completely agree. While majorities still believe there is too much power
concentrated in the hands of a few big companies and that business corporations make too much
profit, fewer feel that way today than was the case in the late 1980s.
BUSINESS ATTITUDES
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
The strength of this country today is
mostly based on the success of
American business
Agree
76
79
77
78
78
Completely
16
25
20
24
26
Disagree
19
17
17
20
20
Don't know
5
4
6
2
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Business corporations generally strike
a fair balance between making profits
and serving the public interest
Agree
43
42
43
40
45
Disagree
48
52
50
56
53
Don't know
9
6
7
4
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
There is too much power concentrated
in the hands of a few big companies
Agree
77
79
77
77
73
Completely
27
35
29
30
31
Disagree
18
17
18
21
26
Don't know
5
4
5
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
28
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
Business corporations make too
much profit
Agree
65
65
63
60
61
Disagree
28
29
30
34
35
Don't know
7
6
7
6
4
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.22h, n, o and p)
Attitudes On Race And Social Welfare
Racial attitudes have changed considerably over the past several years -- moving first in the
direction of heightened concern for and awareness of the plight of black Americans, but more
recently, changing direction.
In 1992, most whites said they agreed that in the past few years, there had not been much real
improvement in the position of blacks in this country. This finding came in the wake of the
Rodney King trial and verdict and the ensuing racial riots in Los Angeles. It represented a 23
percentage point increase from 1987, when only 31% of whites agreed there had been no real
improvement in the position of blacks.
What we see in 1994 is that, without a new King case, whites are less apt to express concern
or sympathy for the condition of blacks in this country. Forty-four percent of whites now say that
there has been no real improvement for blacks, down from 54% in 1992. Black attitudes have
shifted somewhat on this question, although by large majorities, blacks see no real improvement
over time. Seventy-three percent of blacks in 1994 say they've seen no real improvement in their
own position in recent years, up from 69% in 1987 but down from 82% in 1992 (perhaps
reflecting the King episode).
This year for the first time in our seven year series, a majority of whites (51%) say they agree
that equal rights have been pushed too far in this country; in 1992, only 42% agreed.
Interestingly, the attitudes of blacks appear to be moving in the same direction. Today one out
of four blacks agree we've gone too far in pushing equal rights. This represents a significant
increase from the 16% who felt that way in 1987.
Only 25% of whites believe we should make every possible effort to improve the position of
blacks and other minorities, even if it means giving them preferential treatment -- down from the
29% who agreed in 1992. Sixty-two percent of blacks see preferential treatment as an acceptable
means for improving their own position, the lowest level since we first asked the question in
1987, though still a strong majority.
The biggest change we found in racial attitudes is a 22-point leap in the public's acceptance
of interracial dating. In 1987, 43% of whites agreed it is all right for blacks and whites to date
each other; in 1994, 65% agree. Younger whites continue to be more accepting of interracial
dating than do older whites. Eight-five percent of 18-24 year olds agree interracial dating is all
right, compared to 36% of those 65 and older. College graduates are among the most likely to
29
approve of interracial dating, while those with less than a high school education are among the
least likely to approve.
RACIAL TOLERANCE
(BASED ON WHITES)
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
We have gone too far in pushing
equal rights in this country
Agree
46
47
45
42
51
Disagree
49
49
50
55
47
Don't know
5
4
5
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
In the past few years there hasn't
been much real improvement in the
position of blacks in this country
Agree
31
33
33
54
44
Disagree
63
63
63
42
51
Don't know
6
4
4
4
5
Total
100
100
100
100
100
We should make every possible effort
to improve the position of blacks and
other minorities , even if it means
giving them preferential treatment
Agree
18
20
17
29
25
Disagree
78
77
79
68
73
Don't know
4
3
4
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I think it's all right for blacks and
whites to date each other
Agree
43
45
45
61
65
Disagree
51
50
48
35
32
Don't know
6
5
7
4
3
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.39d, i, j and k)
30
RACIAL TOLERANCE
(BASED ON BLACKS)
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
We have gone too far in pushing
equal rights in this country
Agree
16
22
25
21
26
Disagree
81
76
74
78
74
Completely
45
47
47
60
52
Don't know
3
2
1
1
0
Total
100
100
100
100
100
In the past few years there hasn't
been much real improvement in the
position of blacks in this country
Agree
69
70
73
82
73
Completely
28
37
31
51
32
Disagree
29
28
25
17
27
Don't know
2
2
2
1
o
Total
100
100
100
100
100
We should make ever possible effort
to improve the position of blacks and
other minorities, even if it means
giving them preferential treatment
Agree
64
70
68
67
62
Completely
28
28
33
38
36
Disagree
31
27
31
28
38
Don't know
5
3
1
5
*
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I think it's all right for blacks and
whites to date each other
Agree
72
78
78
81
88
Completely
27
40
35
48
52
Disagree
18
18
19
12
11
Don't know
10
4
3
7
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q39d, i, j and k)
Attitudes on welfare, social justice and self reliance also appear to have changed dramatically
in recent years. While 9 out of 10 Americans still agree that our society should do what is
necessary to make sure everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed, there has been a significant
decline in support for social welfare programs.
Fifty-seven percent of respondents in our 1994 survey agreed it is the responsibility of the
government to take care of people who cannot take care of themselves -- down from 69% in 1992
and 71% in 1987. Only 41% of the public today believes that the government should help more
needy people even if it means going deeper in debt. This marks the first time in our surveys that
this premise has not received majority support; both in 1987 and 1992, for example, 53% agreed.
Despite the overall decline in support for welfare programs, large majorities of Democrats
continue to believe the government should take positive steps to provide for the needy.
31
Republicans are far less supportive of welfare programs today, and the fall-off in support for such
measures has been much more pronounced among GOP voters than among Independents.
WELFARISM
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
Our society should do what is
necessary to make sure that everyone
has an equal opportunity to succeed
Agree
90
91
91
93
91
Completely
37
48
45
59
52
Disagree
8
7
7
6
8
Don't know
2
2
2
1
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
It is the responsibility of the
government to take care of people who
can't take care of themselves
Agree
71
74
67
69
57
Disagree
24
23
29
28
41
Don't know
5
3
4
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
The government should guarantee
every citizen enough to eat and
a place to sleep
Agree
62
66
62
65
59
Disagree
33
31
34
32
39
Don't know
5
3
4
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
The government should help more
needy people even if it means
going deeper in debt
Agree
53
52
51
53
41
Disagree
40
42
44
43
56
Don't know
7
6
5
4
3
Total
100
100
100
100
100
WELFARISM
Total
Rep.
Dem.
Ind.
It is the responsibility of the
government to take care of people
who can't take care of themselves
Agree
57
45
69
56
Completely
20
15
29
16
Disagree
41
54
29
43
Don't know
2
1
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
32
Total
Rep.
Dem.
Ind.
The government should help more
needy people even if it means
going deeper in dept
Agree
41
26
55
39
Completely
13
7
19
11
Disagree
56
73
41
59
Don't know
3
1
4
2
Total
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.39c, e, f and g)
The public's growing hostility toward social welfare programs is accompanied by its strong
and growing support for the principles of self reliance. Some 88% of the public say they admire
people who get rich by working hard, and nearly as many (85%) believe poor people have
become too dependent on government assistance programs. This belief is held by large majorities
of people at virtually all levels of income: 87% of the wealthiest respondents (those making
$75,000 a year or more) agree, as do nearly 80% of those poorest (under $20,000 a year).
SELF RELIANCE
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
Success in life is pretty much
determined by forces outside
our control
Agree
38
41
40
38
39
Disagree
57
56
57
59
59
Don't know
5
3
3
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I admire people who get rich
by working hard
Agree
89
88
Completely
47
51
Disagree
10
11
Don't know
1
1
Total
100
100
Many people think they can get
ahead without working hard and
making sacrifices
Agree
63
65
Disagree
35
34
Don't know
2
1
Total
100
100
Poor people have become too
dependent on government
assistance programs
Agree
79
85
Completely
35
46
Disagree
18
13
Don't know
3
2
Total
100
100
Based on Q.22e, g and S and Q.39u)
33
Religious Faith & Tolerance Issues
Once again in 1994, we see that large majorities of the American public hold strong religious
convictions. While attitudes toward government and the political system have shifted in recent
years, along with values on race, welfare and economics, religious faith has remained relatively
steady. Today 88% of the public say they never doubt the existence of God, the same as in 1987.
Seventy-eight percent say prayer is an important part of their daily life, and 84% agree we will
all be called before God on Judgment Day to answer for our sins. If anything, religious values
have grown stronger in recent years. For instance, among the 88% of the public who agree they
never doubt the existence of God, 72% completely agree in 1994, compared to 60% in 1987. We
see a similar trend among all other religious measures in the survey.
Young people are less likely to express strongly held religious beliefs than people 30 years
old and older, and this is true of those with the highest levels of education and income.
Nonetheless, large majorities across all demographic groups agree that religion is an important
part of their lives.
RELIGIOUS BELIEFS
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
I never doubt the existence
of God
Agree
88
87
87
N/A
88
Completely
60
63
60
N/A
72
Disagree
10
11
11
N/A
11
Don't know
2
2
2
N/A
1
Total
100
100
100
100
Prayer is an important part
of my daily life
Agree
76
78
77
N/A
78
Completely
41
46
46
N/A
52
Disagree
23
21
22
N/A
22
Don't know
1
1
1
N/A
*
Total
100
100
100
100
We will all be called before God
at the Judgment Day to answer
for our sins
Agree
81
80
81
83
84
Completely
52
52
52
62
61
Disagree
14
14
14
14
14
Don't know
5
6
5
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Even today miracles are performed
by the power of God
Agree
82
80
82
83
84
Completely
47
51
49
58
58
Disagree
13
15
13
14
14
Don't know
5
5
5
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.52a, b, C and d)
34
Some increased concern in the electorate about traditional values -- what were called "family
values" in the 1992 presidential campaign -- appeared in 1994 compared to 1987. The number
of Americans who say they agree that they have old-fashioned values about family and marriage
has remained relatively stable in recent years, but the percentage who "completely agree" has
increased significantly. In addition, we found a significant increase in the number of people who
believe too many children are being raised in day care centers these days. In 1994, 75% agree
(39% completely); in 1987, 68% agreed (23% completely).
Nearly one out of three Americans agrees that women should return to their traditional roles
in society. More women feel this way than men (33% vs. 27%), but the women who were most
opposed to such a reversal are young, single, well-educated, employed, and making in excess of
$50,000 a year. Older people are more likely to endorse a return to traditional roles than are
younger people. And evangelical Protestants are more likely to support traditional roles for
women than are non-evangelical and Catholics.
TRADITIONAL VALUES
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
I have old-fashioned values about
family and marriage
Agree
87
85
87
N/A
84
Completely
45
50
49
N/A
53
Disagree
11
13
12
N/A
14
Don't know
2
2
1
N/A
2
Total
100
100
100
100
Women should return to their
traditional roles in society
Agree
30
31
30
N/A
30
Disagree
66
66
67
N/A
67
Don't know
4
3
3
N/A
3
Total
100
100
100
100
Too many children are being
raised in day care centers
these days
Agree
68
69
73
N/A
75
Completely
23
29
26
N/A
39
Disagree
27
26
22
N/A
23
Don't know
5
5
5
N/A
2
Total
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.52j, k and m)
In spite of the near unanimity of opinion on religious faith and the shared endorsement of
traditional values, real divisions among the public persist with regard to issues of social tolerance
and personal freedoms. There is no evidence that the public has become more socially tolerant
with regard to civil liberties and freedom of expression in recent years. A slim majority
continues to believe books containing "dangerous ideas" should be banned from public school
libraries. People are more likely to disagree than agree (54% vs. 44%) that sexually explicit
magazines and movies provide harmless entertainment. And more than 40% of the public
35
believes freedom of speech should not extend to groups like the Communist Party or the KKK.
These values have remained relatively stable over the past seven years, moving -- if at all -- in
the direction of decreasing tolerance.
We found at least one important change in public tolerance in the last four years -- a sharp
decline in homophobia. In 1987, 51% of the public agreed that school boards should have the
right to fire teachers who are known homosexuals. In 1994, far fewer -- 38% -- agree. While
tolerance of homosexuals appears to have increased across the board, some groups still remain
evenly split on the issue. For instance, 49% of Southerners still believe school boards should
have the right to fire known homosexuals, as do 49% of those 50 and older.
TOLERANCE &
PERSONAL FREEDOMS
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
Schools boards ought to have the
right to fire teachers who are
known homosexuals
Agree
51
51
49
40
38
Disagree
42
43
45
55
58
Don't know
7
6
6
5
4
Total
100
100
100
100
100
AIDS might be God's punishment
for immoral sexual behavior
Agree
43
44
38
36
39
Disagree
47
48
52
57
57
Don't know
10
8
10
7
4
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Nude magazines and X-rated movies
provide harmless entertainment
for those who enjoy it
Agree
48
45
41
N/A
44
Disagree
47
50
54
N/A
54
Don't know
5
5
5
N/A
2
Total
100
100
100
100
Books that contain dangerous ideas
should be banned from public
school libraries
Agree
50
51
50
48
51
Disagree
44
44
45
49
47
Don't know
6
5
5
3
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
Freedom of speech should not
extend to groups like the
Communist Party or the
Ku Klux Klan
Agree
39
37
35
N/A
41
Disagree
55
58
59
N/A
57
Don't know
6
5
6
N/A
2
Total
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.52e, f, g, h, and I)
36
Foreign Policy Values
In spite of the drastic changes which have taken place around the world in the past seven
years, Americans' foreign policy values and attitudes have changed very little. Concern about
nuclear war has abated, and international issues are given lower priority today than they were
before the Berlin Wall fell. Nonetheless, this does not appear to indicate a shift in attitudes
toward greater isolationism. In fact, just the opposite may be occurring, perhaps reflecting U.S.
interdependence with the global economy. In 1994, the number of Americans who completely
agree that it's best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs stands at 51%, an
increase of nearly twenty percentage points from the 32% who felt that strongly about the issue
in 1987.
AMERICA'S ROLE IN THE WORLD
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
It's best for the future of our country
to be active in world affairs
Agree
87
90
89
91
90
Completely
32
47
39
47
51
Disagree
8
7
7
7
9
Don't know
5
3
4
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
We should pay less attention to
problems overseas and concentrate
on problems here at home
Agree
N/A
N/A
N/A
88
84
Completely
N/A
N/A
N/A
48
46
Disagree
N/A
N/A
N/A
11
15
Don't know
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
1
Total
100
100
(Based on Q.39t and w)
Majorities of the public also agree that the best way to ensure peace is through military
strength (55%), and that we should be willing to fight for our country whether it is right or wrong
(53%). Prior to 1990, these views were closely tied to perceptions of a communist threat. In the
1990s, they are more likely related to multiple and unpredictable threats from smaller, less secure
regimes around the globe.
Younger Americans appear to be far less militaristic than their older counterparts. Only 38%
of 18-24 year olds agree that the best way to ensure peace is through military strength; 62%
disagree. Among those 65 and older, 64% favor military strength as the best means of ensuring
peace; 31% disagree.
But when it comes to fighting for their country, right or wrong, young people are just as
supportive as the rest of the public. In fact, not the young or old but those in their early thirties
are least in favor of the premise.
37
MILITARISM
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
It is my belief that we should
get even with any country that
tries to take advantage of the U.S.
Agree
44
53
47
46
43
Disagree
47
40
46
49
54
Don't know
9
7
7
5
3
Total
100
100
100
100
100
The best way to ensure peace
is through military strength
Agree
54
59
52
54
55
Disagree
40
37
44
43
44
Don't know
6
4
4
3
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
We all should be willing to
fight for our country, whether
it is right or wrong
Agree
54
57
55
57
53
Disagree
40
38
40
39
45
Don't know
6
5
5
4
2
Total
100
100
100
100
100
I often worry about the
chances of nuclear war
Agree
62
61
52
N/A
48
Disagree
27
37
45
N/A
51
Don't know
2
2
3
N/A
1
Total
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.39n, o, q and r)
MILITARISM
Total
18-24
25-29
30-34
35-49
50-64
65+
The best way to ensure
peace is through military
strength
Agree
55
38
40
59
57
58
64
Disagree
44
62
57
40
42
40
31
Don't know
1
0
3
1
1
2
5
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
We all should be willing
to right for our country,
whether it is right or
wrong
Agree
52
50
51
44
51
55
62
Disagree
46
48
49
56
47
44
34
Don't know
2
2
o
*
2
1
4
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.39o and q)
38
Americans' attitudes toward foreigners have remained relatively stable. Today just over 70%
of the public agree that most of the countries that have gotten help from America end up
resenting us. However, however some movement has occurred recently in American attitudes
toward immigrants and immigration policy. Since 1992, the proportion of Americans who agree
we should impose greater restrictions and control over people coming into our country to live has
increased from 76% to 82% -- with 47% saying they "completely agree".
Those with the least education are much more likely to see a need to control immigration than
those with a college education (52% vs. 34%). And Republicans and Independents are more
likely to advocate greater restrictions than are Democrats.
ATTITUDES TOWARD
FOREIGNERS
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
Most of the countries that have
gotten help from America
end up resenting us
Agree
71
76
73
73
72
Disagree
21
18
20
22
24
Don't know
8
6
7
5
4
Total
100
100
100
100
100
American lives are worth
more than the lives of people
in other countries
Agree
24
24
28
N/A
26
Disagree
71
73
68
N/A
73
Don't know
5
3
4
N/A
1
Total
100
100
100
100
We should restrict and control
people coming into our country
to live more than we do now
Agree
76
82
Completely
42
47
Disagree
21
17
Don't know
3
1
Total
100
100
Japan has taken unfair advantage
of the United States
Agree
69
66
Disagree
27
26
Don't know
4
8
Total
100
100
(Based on Q.39m, p, S and v)
39
Less than
H. S.
Coll.
IMMIGRATION
Total
H.S. Grad.
Grad.
Grad.
We should restrict and
control people coming
into our country to live
more than we do now
Agree
81
82
86
71
Completely
47
52
52
34
Disagree
18
17
12
28
Don't know
1
1
2
1
Total
100
100
100
100
Total
Rep.
Dem.
Ind.
We should restrict and
control people coming
into our country to live
more than we do now
Agree
81
87
76
82
Disagree
18
13
23
17
Don't know
1
*
1
1
Total
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.39m)
Environmentalism
Americans are no less likely to describe themselves as environmentalists today than they were
in 1987, and large majorities say they agree that there need to be stricter laws and regulations to
protect the environment. However, the public's willingness to pay higher prices for the sake of
environmental protection has eroded significantly in the last couple of years. In 1992, 67%
agreed that people should be willing to pay higher prices in order to protect the environment; in
1994, 57% agree.
This may be the result of recent skirmishes between environmental activists and certain
economic interests that have highlighted the economic trade-offs involved in environmental
protection, - e.g. the spotted owl controversy.
While lower income Americans appear less willing to make economic sacrifices to protect
the environment, this is not a purely economic issue. It also has partisan or ideological overtones.
Those who identify most strongly with the Republican party are among the least likely to agree
we should all pay higher prices in order to protect the environment. And the politically vocal --
those who say they regularly listen to talk radio and frequently contact their representatives in
Washington are even less likely than conservative Republicans to be willing to pay higher
prices for the sake of the environment.
40
ENVIRONMENTALISM
1992
1994
There need to be stricter laws
and regulations to protect
the environment
Agree
90
82
Completely
55
46
Disagree
9
17
Don't know
1
1
Total
100
100
People should be willing to pay
higher prices in order to
protect the environment
Agree
67
57
Completely
26
17
Disagree
32
42
Don't know
1
1
Total
100
100
(Based on Q.39a and b)
Political Vocalization
Radio
Contacted
Total
Listener
Wash.
Both
Neither
ENVIRONMENTALISM
People should be willing to pay
higher prices in order to
protect the environment
Agree
57
51
51
46
60
Disagree
42
46
48
53
39
Don't know
1
3
1
1
1
Total
100
100
100
100
100
(Based on Q.39b)
ARE YOU AN ENVIRONMENTALIST?
Description
Totally
Description
Wrong
Perfect
DK
1-3
4-7
8-10
How well does the following
phrase describe you
...
an environmentalist?
1994
13
41
43
3 = 100
1990
9
43
42
6 = 100
1987
9
49
39
3 = 100
(Based on Times Mirror survey of April 1994, Q74c)
41
SECTION 2: TRENDS IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION
AND PARTY ATTITUDES
Trends in party identification and party attitudes remain vital predictors of voter behavior for
a significant portion of the electorate and are the other major keystones in creating the new
typology.
During the 1980s, the Democrats lost much of their historic advantage in party identification
at the grassroots level. By the time George Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan in the White House,
the two major parties were at parity, at least according to telephone surveys.¹ In Times Mirror
Center telephone surveys taken over the course of 1989, identical percentages of U.S. adults
identified themselves as Republicans (33%) and Democrats (33%).
The GOP: Reversal Of Fortune
In the 1990s, the GOP's momentum was reversed, at least temporarily, as the recession shook
people's confidence in the future and helped the Democrats recapture the White House. The
percentage of self-identified Republicans declined by five points, from an average of 32% in 1990
surveys to 27% in 1993 surveys. Republican losses, however, did not translate directly into
Democratic gains. Between 1990 and 1993, identification with the Democratic Party increased
by only one percentage point, from 33% to 34%.
Over the past year, the GOP appears to have regained some of its lost momentum, most likely
a consequence of increasing disenchantment with the Clinton presidency. Since the last quarter
of 1993, 29%-30% have consistently identified with themselves with the Republican Party, up
from 27% during the early days of the Clinton administration.
Over One Third Now Call Themselves Independents
In the summer of 1994, with the Republicans rebounding, the Democrats hold a slight edge
in party identification -- 33% to 29%. More than a third (35%) of the public, however, chooses
to identify with neither party and call themselves Independents. The "Independent" label has been
popular throughout Bush and Clinton years. With the exception of 1990, yearly averages for
1989-1994 show at least a third of adults identifying themselves as Independents.
While the number of self-identified Independents today is certainly high by historical
standards, these figures are not unprecedented. Gallup reports similar proportions of Independents
in the post-Watergate era of the mid-to-late 1970s, another time of economic uncertainty and
disillusionment with the political system.
1 Measures of party identification based on personal interview surveys, such as the long-term trend
reported by The Gallup Poll, tend to show a somewhat different distribution than telephone surveys. In
general, personal interview surveys show higher proportions of Democrats and lower proportions of
Independents.
42
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS*
Republican
Democrat
Independent
Current (July 1994)
29
33
35
1994
29
32
34
1993
27
34
34
1992
28
34
34
1991
31
32
33
1990
32
33
30
1989
33
33
34
1988
27
30
38
1987
29
34
32
*
These trends are based on telephone surveys conducted by the Times Mirror Center. Data
for 1987-1989 based on surveys conducted by Gallup for Newsweek.
The Young: Missed Opportunity For The Democrats?
One of the biggest changes in party identification since the late 1980s is the decline in GOP
affiliation among young people. The 11-point Republican advantage among adults under 30
recorded during George Bush's first year in office (37% vs. 26% in 1989) had disappeared by
Bill Clinton's first year (27% Republican vs. 30% Democrat in 1993).
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS
Based on 18-29 Year Olds
45
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Years
Legend
Republican
Democrat
Independent
43
Clinton and the Democrats, however, have failed to win over the so-called Generation X.
Appeals to young people through appearances on MTV and other youth-oriented media may have
succeeded in winning votes for the Democratic ticket in 1992, but did not make many long-term
converts for the party. Since early 1993, identification with the Democratic Party among people
under 30 has fallen off, while Republican identification has held steady. The latest figures show
the Republicans regaining a slight advantage, 30% to 26%, among adults under 30. The highest
proportion of the young (41%) now call themselves Independents.
Among older generations of Americans, not surprisingly, there has been more stability in
party identification. Those now aged 30 to 49 years old, a generation shaped by the political and
social ferment of the '60s and '70s, are about equally likely to identify with each of the two
major parties (29% Republican; 31% Democrat). Like the young, the highest percentage of this
generation think of themselves as Independents.
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS
Based on 30-49 Year Olds
45
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Years
Legend
Republican
Democrat
Independent
44
People over 50, whose political values were influenced by FDR's New Deal and/or the JFK
presidency, continue to show an affinity for the Democratic Party. Four in ten (39%) people over
50 call themselves Democrats, while fewer than one in three (27%) call themselves Republicans.
This is also the age group least likely to self-identify as Independent (30%).
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS
Based on 50+ Year Olds
45
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Years
Legend
Republican
Democrat
Independent
GOP Fails To Win Over Blacks; Regains Advantage Among Whites
Recent trends in party identification by race show little change. Not only has the GOP failed
to gain any ground among blacks; since 1989, the percentage of blacks who identify with the
Democratic Party has increased from 61% to 66%. Times Mirror Center survey estimates for the
incidence of black Republicans have been under 10% since the Persian Gulf War period.
During the last presidential campaign, the GOP temporarily lost its advantage in party
identification among whites. Times Mirror Center data for both 1992 and 1993 shows the
Republicans with a statistically insignificant one-point edge among whites nationally (31% vs.
30%). More recent polling suggests the GOP has retaken the lead. Even so, the largest
proportion of whites -- 36% -- now associate themselves with neither major party and call
themselves Independents.
45
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS
Based on Whites
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Years
Legend
Republican
Democrat
Independent
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS
Based on Blacks
75
60
45
Percent
30
15
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Years
Legend
Republican
Democrat
Independent
46
Gender Differences In Party ID Persist
Differences in party identification by gender that developed during the 1980s remain part of
today's political landscape. Partisan differences between men and women were first noted with
respect to Ronald Reagan's "gender gap" in voter support in 1980 pre-election polls. Throughout
most of his two terms, Reagan was regarded more favorably by men than women. This
phenomenon was generally attributed to the more masculine appeal of Reagan's political agenda
-- hawkish on foreign policy, anti-government social programs and supportive of business
interests.
Today, more than five years since Reagan left office, gender differences in party identification
are as large as they have ever been. Statistically similar percentages of men and women
interviewed last July called themselves Republicans (30% of men vs. 27% of women), but the
percentage of self-identified Democrats was 11 points higher among women than men (38% vs.
27%).
The GOP's appeal among men has declined somewhat since the Bush years. Given this
slippage in Republican identification, neither party has held an advantage among males over the
past few years. A plurality of men now see themselves as Independents (39% in the July 1994
survey).
Since 1992, the Democrats have enjoyed roughly a 10-point edge over the Republicans in
party identification among women. Before the recession hit in 1990, the Democratic advantage
was more often in the five-point range.
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS
Based on Men
45
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Years
Legend
Republican
Democrat
Independent
47
PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS
Based on Women
45
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Years
Legend
Republican
Democrat
Independent
GOP Consolidates Gains Among Key Subgroups
Some demographic patterns in party identification have not changed much during the postwar
era. Republicans still tend to be better educated and more affluent. Democrats are still more
likely to be black, live in cities and belong to labor unions. At the same time, there have been
major shifts in the political allegiances of key population subgroups over the last half century.
The good news for the Republicans is that nearly all these shifts have been in the direction of the
GOP. The good news for the Democrats is that these long-term trends appear to have finally run
their course.
In achieving near parity with its rival, the Republican Party has overcome a major Democratic
advantage -- family ties. In July 1994 close to half of U.S. adults (47%) said they grew up in
a family that usually voted for Democratic candidates; only about three in 10 (28%) grew up in
a Republican family. But when asked their current party preferences, the number of Republicans
and Republican leaners about equals the number of Democrats and Democratic leaners (45% vs.
47%).
By comparing the party orientations of U.S. adults today with the reported voting habits of
their parents, the nature of the generational shift to the GOP that has occurred since World War
II is brought into sharp focus. As shown in the following table, the number of Republican-
oriented Americans whose parents voted Democrat is nearly twice as large as the number of
Democratic-oriented Americans whose parents voted Republican. The net shift to the GOP is +7
overall, but that figure is higher among the following subgroups:
* White Southerners (+12). The defection of white conservative Democrats to Republican
presidential candidates has been evident since the Goldwater candidacy in 1964. Today,
it is no longer a question of defection -- the party of Newt Gingrich has a firm foothold
48
in the South. The Democrats' 35% to 30% advantage in party identification in the
Southern region now depends on the region's sizable black population. White
Southerners have become more likely to consider themselves Republicans than Democrats
(35% vs. 29%).
*
White Evangelicals (+12). This group now represents nearly a quarter (24%) of the
U.S. adult population. Jimmy Carter's courting of born-again Christian voters proved
critical to his victory over Gerald Ford in 1976, but in subsequent presidential elections
they have voted Republican. Today, this is a solidly Republican group: 38% identify
themselves as Republicans, 28% as Democrats. While generally associated with the
South, more than half of white Protestant Evangelicals live in other regions. This shift
has changed the composition of the GOP at the grassroots level. Among all self-
identified Republicans, there are now at least as many white Evangelicals as there are
non-Evangelical white Protestants (32% vs. 29%). These two groups differ markedly in
terms of socioeconomic class and political values.
*
White, Non-Hispanic Catholics (+13). Once a key part of FDR's New Deal coalition,
many white Catholics have found themselves at odds with the Democratic Party on issues
of race, foreign policy, taxes and "family values" in the postwar era. Today, white
Catholics are still more likely than white Protestants to call themselves Democrats. But
they can no longer be regarded as a Democratic constituency. As a group, 47% of white
Catholics are now Republicans or lean toward the GOP; 46% are Democrats or lean
Democrat. The Catholic drift to the GOP has much to do with Republican candidates'
newfound electoral viability in major urban centers. White Catholics were Rudolph
Giuliani's political base for his successful New York City mayoralty campaign last year.
* Upper Middle Income People (+15). After moving up the socioeconomic ladder, many
Americans born into Democratic families have left their parents' politics behind. Today,
those with middle-range incomes of $50,000 to $74,999 are about as likely as the more
affluent to call themselves Republicans (38% vs. 40%). By income groups, the
Democrats have an advantage in party identification only below the $30,000 income level.
Those in the middle -- the $30,000 to $49,999 income category -- divide equally between
the two parties (31% Republican; 31% Democrat)
*
Men (+11). Women have not been swept along by the Republican tide as much as
men. In part, this might be explained by the changing role of women in society. As
more women have entered the workplace, wives have become more independent from
their husbands, and less likely to reflect their spouse's political views.
One group that has been virtually unaffected by Republican shift are African Americans.
Blacks are less likely than other major subgroups to say their own party preferences diverge from
those of their parents; the small net shift observed in blacks' party orientations is actually in the
49
direction of the Democrats. The 1987 Times Mirror typology survey suggested some opportunity
for the GOP to win over a new generation of blacks. The new survey shows no signs of any
Republican progress -- while 6% of blacks aged 18 to 29 have shifted toward the GOP, 6% have
shifted away from the party of Lincoln.
In the 1990s, the generational movement toward the Republican Party appears to have stalled,
stopping short of a realignment that might have established the GOP as the new majority party.
Analysis of the net shift by age groups provides clear evidence of major GOP gains among those
over 35 years of age, but more limited GOP gains among younger people. In fact, the youngest
group analyzed -- those aged 18 to 24 -- shows no significant movement toward the GOP.
50
GENERATIONAL PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrats Whose
Republicans Whose
Net Shift
Parents Voted
Parents Voted
Favoring
Republican
Democrat
Republicans
(N)
Total
8
15
+7
(3800)
Sex
Male
7
18
+11
(1893)
Female
8
22
+4
(1907)
Race
White
8
16
+8
(3046)
Black
7
4
-3
(501)
Hispanic
7
11
+4
(200)
Age
18-24
9
10
+1
(449)
25-29
7
13
+6
(370)
30-34
10
13
+3
(435)
35-49
7
16
+9
(1214)
50-64
8
17
+9
(707)
65+
7
16
+9
(581)
Sex/Age
18-29
Male
7
15
+8
(470)
Female
9
8
-1
(349)
30-49
Male
8
18
+10
(849)
Female
8
13
+5
(800)
50+
Male
6
21
+15
(557)
Female
9
13
+4
(731)
Blacks/Age
18-29
6
6
o
(138)
30-49
6
3
-3
(236)
50+
11
3
-8
(122)
Education
College Grad.
11
16
+5
(1098)
Some College
8
18
+10
(929)
High School Grad.
6
14
+8
(1351)
< H.S. grad.
7
12
+5
(407)
Family Income
$75,000+
10
19
+9
(351)
$50,000-$74,999
6
21
+15
(544)
$30,000-$49,999
8
17
+9
(1021)
$20,000-$29,999
7
15
+8
(683)
< $20,000
10
9
-1
(855)
CONT.
51
Democrats Whose
Republicans Whose
Net Shift
Parents Voted
Parents Voted
Favoring
Republican
Democrat
Republicans
(N)
Region
East
8
14
+6
(751)
Midwest
8
13
+5
(910)
South
7
17
+ 10
(1376)
West
10
15
+5
(763)
Community
Large city
7
15
+8
(813)
Suburb
9
15
+6
(917)
Small city/town
7
14
+7
(1345)
Rural area
8
16
+8
(712)
Religion/Race/Region
White Protestant
Evangelicals
6
18
+ 12
(829)
Other White
Protestants
10
14
+4
(898)
White Catholics
6
19
+ 13
(772)
White Southerners
7
19
+12
(1009)
White Non-Southerners
8
15
+7
(2037)
Jewish
3
12
+9
(101)
Question:
In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or
Independent? As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican Party
or the Democratic Party? When you were growing up, did your parents
usually vote for Republicans or Democrats?
Public Continues To See Differences Between Parties
Support for Independent political candidates hasn't gained momentum because Americans
have come to see the two major parties as Tweedledum and Tweedledee. In fact, the percentage
of Americans who see at least "a fair amount" of difference in what the parties stand for is
somewhat higher in 1994 (74%) than it was in 1990 (69%) or 1987 (70%).
Each party continues to be associated with a specific class or interest group. By a margin of
66% to 23%, the Republicans are viewed as the party more "concerned with the needs and
interests of business and other powerful groups;" by a similar margin of 65% to 21%, the
Democrats are seen as the party more "concerned with the needs and interests of the
disadvantaged."
The image of the Republicans as supporters of the business establishment and the Democrats
as champions of the poor and underprivileged has changed little in recent years. Since the Times
Mirror Center began asking these two party image questions in 1987, the Republicans were
selected as the party of business by margins of 43, 42, and 43 percentage points. The Democrats
have been selected as the party of the disadvantaged by margins of 50, 42 and 44 points.
52
GOP Gains Ground On Competence Dimension
Controlling both the White House and Congress has been a mixed blessing for the Democrats.
The Clinton Administration's problems in getting its programs passed appear to have enhanced
the Republicans' image as the more competent party. By a margin of 48% to 27%, the public
is more likely to see the GOP as "well organized." Since 1987, the GOP has been consistently
identified as better organized in Times Mirror Center surveys. Since Clinton took office,
however, the public has also become more likely to regard the Republicans as "better able to
manage the federal government." The Republicans now enjoy a 43% to 31% advantage on this
item.
The Republicans, however, have yet to recoup their advantage as the party that "selects good
candidates for office." The GOP's current edge is only 4 points (40% vs. 36%) overall, but is
larger among some key population subgroups, including men (+12), adults under 30 (+15), white
Evangelicals (+17), white Catholics (+12) and suburbanites (+10).
Democratic Image: More Compassionate
Being seen as more compassionate remains a Democratic Party strong point. By a 14-
percentage-point margin, the party is now seen as more "concerned with the needs of people like
me." The Democratic Party enjoyed a somewhat larger edge on compassion, however, in the
Bush and Reagan years. Among the groups less apt to believe Democrats care more than
Republicans are men, white Evangelicals and suburbanites.
Once seen as the party of change, the Democratic Party no longer holds this distinction. Its
current 3-percentage-point edge is not statistically significant. The presence of a Democrat in the
White House may be a factor, but even before Clinton announced his presidential candidacy, the
Democrats' advantage as better able to bring about needed changes had slipped to 4 points (31%
vs. 27% in May 1990).
At a time Americans increasingly distrust government and politicians, the Democratic Party
has no significant advantage over the GOP in its image for honesty in government. "Govern[ing]
in an honest and ethical way" is the party image item survey respondents were most apt to say
applies well to "neither" party.
53
REPUBLICAN PARTY STRENGTHS
Difference
Party Better Described
Republicans
Democrats
Favoring REPS.
By The Phrase:
Concerned with needs and
interests of business and
other powerful groups
66
23
+43
Well organized
48
27
+ 21
Able to manage the
federal government well
43
31
+ 12
Selects good candidates
for office
40
36
+4
DEMOCRATIC PARTY STRENGTHS
Difference
Party Better Described
Republicans
Democrats
Favoring DEMS.
By The Phrase:
Concerned with needs and
interests of disadvantaged
21
65
+ 44
Concerned with needs of
people like me
35
49
+14
Can bring about kind of
changes country needs
39
42
+3
Governs in an honest
and ethical way
32
35
+3
Question:
I'm going to read you some phrases. Please tell me if you think each
one better describes the REPUBLICAN Party and its leaders or the
DEMOCRATIC Party and its leaders. (First,) which party do you think
is better described by the phrase ?
GOP Stock Rises On Foreign Policy, Jobs
The view that Republicans are better equipped to deal with national defense and international
problems has become conventional wisdom. Bill Clinton's unsteadiness on foreign policy,
however, seems to have further enhanced the GOP image in this area. The Republicans now lead
by a margin of 51% to 31% (+20) for their ability to "make wise decisions about this country's
defense policies." A May 1990 survey found the GOP advantage to be only about half as large
(+11).
The GOP has also closed the gap on the critical issue of jobs. The Democrats and
Republicans are now statistically tied as the party that will do more to "protect U.S. jobs" (42%
vs. 40%). That the GOP also continues to be regarded as better able to handle other economic
54
issues, including "mak[ing] America competitive in the world economy" and "reduc[ing] the
federal budget deficit" is nothing new.
The public still prefers the Democrats to the Republicans on domestic issues other than the
economy. The three areas where the Democratic Party has an advantage are "protect[ing] the
environment," "reform[ing] the U.S. health care system" and "improving our educational system."
GOP Seen As Party Of "Traditional Values"
While Republicans Bush and Quayle were unable to ride the issue of "family values" to
victory in the last presidential election, rising public concern about morality and personal
character may boost the GOP's prospects for this fall's Congressional elections. The Republicans
have the edge as both the party better able to "protect traditional American values" and "promote
morality and personal responsibility."
The groups most likely to pick the Republicans over the Democrats as the party of traditional
values include people under 30, parents and suburbanites. By region, the Republican advantage
is even greater in the Midwestern region (+17) than it is in the South (+10).
REPUBLICAN PARTY STRENGTHS
Difference
Party Better Able To:
Republicans
Democrats
Favoring REPS.
Make wise decisions about
country's defense policies
51
31
+ 20
Make America competitive
in the world economy
48
35
+ 13
Protect traditional
American values
47
35
+ 12
Promote morality and
personal responsibility
46
34
+ 12
Reduce federal budget
deficit
42
36
+6
55
DEMOCRATIC PARTY STRENGTHS
Difference
Party Better Able To:
Republicans
Democrats
Favoring DEMS.
Protect the environment
28
56
+ 28
Reform U.S. health care
system
34
48
+ 14
Improve our educational
system
37
46
+9
Protect U.S. jobs
40
42
+2
Reform government
39
40
+1
Question:
Next, please tell me if you think the REPUBLICAN Party or the
DEMOCRATIC Party could do a better job in each of the following
areas (First,) which party could do a better job of ?
Public Supports Idea Of A Third Major Party
The public is more supportive of a third major party today than it was a decade ago. When
the ABC/Washington Post poll presented the concept of a the third major political party to a
national sample of adults in 1982, opinion was evenly divided: 44% thought it was a good idea;
44% thought otherwise. Today, the public responds positively: 53% for, 43% against.
In their demographic and political profile, third party proponents bear some resemblance to
1992 Perot voters. Like Perot voters, those in favor of a third party tend to be male, under 50,
and politically Independent. And like Perot voters, they are less likely to be black, live in the
South or to have very low incomes and education levels.
Aside from being a much larger group, third party supporters differ from Perot voters in other
respects:
*
While Perot voters were more likely to live in rural areas, third party supporters today
are more often found in the suburbs.
*
Perot's candidacy appealed more to Republicans than Democrats, but Democrats are
now at least as likely to favor a third party. Jewish voters, a key Democratic
constituency in large cities and their suburbs, were not inclined to support Perot in
1992, but a solid majority today (56%) like the idea of a third major party.
*
Perot was a centrist candidate, and appealed most to those who saw themselves as
moderates. The opening for a new party is more toward the liberal side of the
56
ideological spectrum, perhaps more fertile territory for a Jesse Jackson or Jerry
Brown.
*
While Perot's voters were not particularly knowledgeable about politics, third party
supporters today tend to know more about politics than those who disapprove of a
new major party.
57
SUPPORT FOR ALTERNATIVE TO MAJOR PARTIES
Agree We Should
Have A Third
Voted For Perot
Major Political Party
In 1992 Election
(%)
(%)
Total
53
14
Sex
Male
58
17
Female
47
11
Race
White
53
15
Black
46
5
Hispanic
54
19
Age
18-24
60
12
25-29
63
17
30-34
58
15
35-49
57
16
50-64
47
13
65 +
36
10
Education
College Grad.
55
15
Some College
60
15
High School Grad.
52
15
< H.S. grad.
41
10
Family Income
$75,000 +
56
15
$50,000-$74,999
59
14
$30,000-$49,999
58
18
$20,000-$29,999
52
15
< $20,000
47
11
Region
East
56
15
Midwest
50
14
South
49
11
West
59
18
Community
Large city
52
11
Suburb
58
15
Small city/town
51
13
Rural area
51
18
CONT.
58
Agree We Should
Have A Third
Voted For Perot
Major Political Party
In 1992 Election
Party Identification
Republican
45
12
Democrat
48
8
Independent
65
21
Presidential Approval
Approve
51
10
Disapprove
54
18
Religion/Race/Region
White Protestant
Evangelicals
45
13
Other White
Protestants
57
16
White Catholics
55
17
White Southerners
50
12
White Non-Southerners
55
17
Jewish
56
7
Political Vocalization
Regular Listener
54
14
Contacted Wash.
56
16
Both
55
15
Neither
51
13
Political Knowledge
High
57
13
Medium
54
14
Low
49
14
Self-Described Ideology
Conservative
46
13
Moderate
56
16
Liberal
61
12
59
SECTION 3: THE NEW POLITICAL TYPOLOGY
Origins Of The 1994 Typology
In 1987, Times Mirror commissioned the most exhaustive study of the American electorate
ever undertaken: The People, the Press & Politics. That study's primary objective was to
describe the political landscape in a new and more meaningful way, going beyond labels that had
outlived their usefulness, such as Democrat, Republican, conservative and liberal.
First, an extensive review of previous research was conducted to identify general beliefs,
values, political outlooks and personal orientations that had been shown to influence voting
behavior. Based on academic studies and survey data, 21 such factors were selected for inclusion
in the survey questionnaire. To test these factors, 72 separate question items were developed.
In addition to these items, the survey instrument included measures of party identification,
political attitudes and behaviors, and basic demographic descriptors.
Over 4,000 in-depth personal interviews, averaging about one hour in length, were then
administered to a national sample of adults, including an oversample of blacks. The results were
then analyzed, using sophisticated statistical techniques to discern the critical factors that
differentiate people politically and to create a voter "typology" that groups together those
individuals who share similar political beliefs and attitudes.
In the end, 10 groups of voting-age Americans, each with its own distinct values system were
identified, plus another group with virtually no interest in politics, no voting history and no
inclination to become politically involved. In addition to revealing the characteristics of the
individual groups, the typology was a valuable tool for describing the structure of the electorate
and the composition of the two parties at the grassroots level:
*
The typology revealed each party's core voter constituencies -- two for the
Republicans and four for the Democrats. This translated into a numeric
advantage for the Democratic Party, but greater party loyalty and higher
voter turnout among core GOP groups brought the parties into equilibrium
in terms of electoral strength.
*
The two core GOP groups, about equal in size, represented two different
varieties of Republicanism -- the economic conservatism of the upscale
Enterprisers and the social conservatism of the populist Moralists, driven
by moral issues and their strong anti-communist beliefs.
*
Major divisions were discovered in the core of the Democratic Party by
class and generation. The New Dealers represented an older group of
blue collar conservatives. The 60's Democrats were an upper middle class
group whose values were shaped by the civil rights and antiwar
movements. The Partisan Poor were a low income group, with high
60
concentrations of minorities, who saw the Democratic Party as their
vehicle for improving their lives. The Passive Poor, although similar to
the Partisan Poor demographically, were less politicized, less critical of
institutions and more content with their own situation.
Two of the four Independent groups leaned toward the GOP. One was
characterized by its optimism, the other by its negativism. The Upbeats,
a young group with a strong faith in America and an uncritical view of
institutions, appeared to be a legacy of Ronald Reagan. The Disaffected,
a middle-aged, anti-elitist, angry and financially pressured group,
suggested an '80s version of the old George Wallace vote.
One of the two Democratic-leaning Independent groups, the Followers,
was politically marginal. But the other, the Seculars, was an important
group and a key opportunity for the Democrats. This group stood apart
from the other groups in its lack of religious belief. Affluent, but not
fiscally conservative, its members' high tolerance and peace-orientation
indicated Democratic values. Doubts about the party's competence and
ability to deal with the economy, however, seemed to keep them from
becoming full-fledged Democrats.
The 1987 typology was put to the test the following year, as Times Mirror surveys tracked
voter support in the Bush-Dukakis race. It proved its value as a tool for understanding and
explaining voter behavior. To win the election, Bush overcame a double-digit Dukakis lead in
polls taken before the summer political conventions. Analysis of candidate-switching within the
framework of the typology isolated the key "swing" voter group -- the Disaffected. Evenly
divided in their preferences in the May survey, over two-thirds (68%) reported voting for Bush
in the Times Mirror post-election survey.
Subsequent surveys showed the Disaffected to be the first group to jump ship when President
Bush's approval ratings fell in 1990. It was a group Bush would never win back, epitomizing
the "angry voters" who were part of the lexicon of '92 campaign coverage.
To keep step with the changing political environment, new items were added to Times Mirror
surveys during the Bush years in order to measure values and orientations thought to be
increasingly salient to political attitudes and behavior, most notably, environmentalism and
xenophobia. While the typology continued to be constructed from the original items developed
in 1987, these supplementary items helped lay the groundwork for the 1994 version of typology.
Bringing The Typology Into The '90s
In developing the new voter typology, updating the items measuring political values and
orientations to reflect the current political environment was only one of the Times Mirror Center's
goals. Another priority was reducing the number of questions necessary to define the groups, so
the typology could be used more often in the Center's political surveys. Administering the items
61
necessary to create the original typology required almost 15 minutes of interviewing time. As
a result, the typology did not lend itself to telephone surveys, now the preferred methodology for
most public opinion research because of their lower costs and quicker turnaround time. In-person
surveys permit long questionnaires averaging an hour or more in length, but telephone surveys
are generally much more limited.
In modifying the typology to make it more useful and meaningful, the Times Mirror Center
and Princeton Survey Research Association have fine-tuned the methodology used to derive it
without fundamentally altering it. Once again, it is primarily constructed by classifying people
according to nine basic values and orientations and party affiliation.
But three of these dimensions have been modified conceptually:
*
Social Justice had been a measure combining racial attitudes with beliefs
about social welfare. In the new typology, this value is divided into two
separate measures: 1) attitudes toward Race, or the situation for blacks in
this country; and 2) attitudes toward Social Welfare.
*
Alienation. This measure had combined degree of trust in the political
system with personal feelings of powerlessness and hopelessness. This is
now two separate measures: 1) Political Alienation; and 2) Individual
Alienation.
*
Militant Anti-communism had encompassed perceptions of communism's
threat to the U.S., support for military solutions to international problems,
and ethnocentricism. After the fall of Soviet communism, this measure
has been changed to simple Militarism, without the anti-communist
dimension.
The remaining six values and orientations drawn from the original typology are essentially
unchanged:
*
Social Tolerance. Values regarding civil liberties and free speech, and
acceptance of different lifestyles are central to this measure.
*
Anti-Government Sentiment. Attitudes toward the size and effectiveness
of government are represented in this measure.
*
American Exceptionalism. This measure goes beyond simple love of
country to reflect confidence in America's future and its ability to
overcome almost any obstacle in its path.
62
Pro-Business Sentiment. This measure encompasses beliefs about the
power and influence of corporations and the degree to which they are
believed to operate responsibly.
Religious Faith. This measure goes beyond basic belief in God to include
the role of prayer in peoples' lives and more specific concepts, such as a
belief in Judgment Day.
*
Financial Pressure. This measure goes beyond income level to gauge
satisfaction with one's personal economic status and feelings of financial
security.
Two values and orientations not measured in 1987 have been added. Environmentalism
combines beliefs about the costs of environmental protection and the country's efforts in this area.
Xenophobia deals with attitudes toward immigrants and the way other countries treat the United
States.
In total, the number of values and orientations measured in the new survey has been expanded
to 13. In the past, multiple survey questions had been developed and tested to create a scale for
each one. This time, two questions were used to measure each of these dimensions. To ensure
that these questions are substantively on target, they are based on the original questions shown
statistically to be the most valid and reliable measurements for each scale.
The new questions use a "balanced alternative" format that presents respondents with two
options and asks them to weigh the merits of each one. For example, one measure of attitudes
toward government asks whether "government regulation of business is necessary to protect the
public interest" or whether "government regulation of business usually does more harm than
good." To provide an intensity dimension, each question is followed by a probe to determine
whether respondents feel strongly about their answers. The 13 scales are created by adding
together responses to each pair of items.
How The Typology Was Created
To identify the values and orientations most important in explaining political attitudes and
behaviors in the 90s, the 13 scales have been statistically evaluated for their effectiveness in
predicting public opinion of contemporary political personalities and issues. Separate multiple
regression analyses have been conducted, testing the 13 scales as predictors of the following:
Clinton job approval
Opinion of Bob Dole
Opinion of Ross Perot
Attitude toward government-funded abortions
Attitude toward gays in the military
Attitude toward Congressional term limits
Attitude toward a ban on smoking
Attitude toward the Korean nuclear threat
63
Based on these analyses, the scales used to create the new typology have been reduced to
nine, consistent with the original typology. Xenophobia, financial pressure, individual alienation,
and American exceptionalism proved to be less important than other values and orientations, and
have therefore not been incorporated into the new typology. Each of the four was a significant
predictor in no more than three regression analyses and was not a strong predictor in any case.
From this point, the procedures used to create the new typology do not differ from those
employed in 1987. Once again, a political attentiveness and participation variable was created
and used to extract a low involvement "Bystanders" group. A cluster analysis was used to sort
the remaining respondents into homogeneous groups based on nine values scales and measures
of party identification. Alternative cluster solutions were evaluated for their effectiveness in
producing groups that are cohesive, distinct from one another, large enough in size to be
practicable, and meaningful from a substantive point of view.
The cluster solutions were evaluated in statistical terms by comparing the average variance
within each group with total variance for each of the nine scales and party affiliation. This
analysis determined the degree to which the various cluster solutions produced homogeneous
groups. To determine each cluster solution's performance in creating groups with a unique set
of values and orientations, the size of the variance of the means across groups was computed for
each of the nine scales and party affiliation.
The New Political Landscape
In the end, the cluster solution judged to be optimal on the basis of these statistical analyses
is also the one most persuasive from a purely substantive point of view. The new Times Mirror
voter typology describes a political landscape transformed by demographic shifts in party
allegiances, disillusionment with government, and growing anxiety about the future.
Identified in the new typology are nine distinct groups of politically active voters, one fewer
than the original typology. Five of the groups Enterprisers, Moralists, Seculars, New Dealers
and the Partisan Poor -- are carryovers from Times Mirror's initial voter classification scheme.
The other four groups, however, are new:
*
Libertarians are a fiscally conservative, pro-business group at odds with
their GOP brethren on social tolerance issues
*
The conflicting political values of New Economy Independents make them
highly unreceptive to traditional partisan appeals. This group, along with
the Libertarians, gave Ross Perot the largest share of their vote in 1992.
*
The Embittered are an Independent group despite a Democratic
demographic profile. Distrusting of institutions and the power structure,
they lack the Partisan Poor's faith in the party to improve their lives.
64
New Democrats, who replaced 60s Democrats in the typology, have a
much more centrist orientation. These middle-class Democrats are pro-
environment and peace-oriented, but also have very favorable attitudes
toward business and agree with the Republicans that discrimination is not
the main barrier to black advancement.
Notable for its absence is the Upbeats, a Republican-leaning Independent group present in the
original typology. Their attraction to the GOP had little to do with economic or social
conservatism, but seemed a reflection of Ronald Reagan's optimism and economic good times
of his second term. Lacking core Republican values, these young people have dispersed
politically in an era of political and economic unrest.
The Structure Of The New Electorate
One of the most striking findings of the new survey is the declining role of the parties as a
framework around which Americans organize their political thinking. Ross Perot's ability to
capture almost one in five votes in the last presidential election sent a message to both parties that
their traditional supporters could not be taken for granted. The new survey shows a widening
divergence between party identification and political values:
*
In the original typology, six of the 10 politically active groups were
identified as "core" constituencies of one or the other party based on self-
identification and voting patterns. In the new typology, only two groups
-- the Enterprisers at one ideological extreme and the Partisan Poor at the
other -- display sufficient commitment to their parties to be regarded as
"core" groups.
The new typology reflects an electorate becoming unhinged from the two major parties. On
the right, identification with the GOP reaches 75% among Enterprisers, the only group that
combines economic and social conservatism, but drops off to 65% for the Moralists and 54% for
the Libertarians -- two groups whose political values are at odds.
In the center, the New Economy Independents yearn for a third major party, while the
Embittered demonstrate that low-income and minority voters no longer automatically support
Democrats.
In what passes for the left in this country, two older groups of voters continue to embrace the
Democratic Party label -- the heavily minority Partisan Poor (89%) and the unionist, socially
conservative New Dealers (82%). But the two younger groups that represent the party's future --
the pro-business New Democrats and the socially liberal Seculars -- have a weaker bond to the
party (62% and 46%, respectively, call themselves Democrats).
65
Relative Party Strength: GOP Draws Even
The 1987 voter typology found that core Democratic groups accounted for 41% of probable
voters, compared to 31% for core GOP groups. Now, Democrats and Republicans have equal
numbers of loyalists: 36% of registered voters in the three Republican-oriented groups on the
right, compared to 34% in the four Democratic-oriented groups. The greater enthusiasm of
Republicans for their party and its candidates, today as in 1987, becomes more significant as the
Democrats advantage disappears.
The GOP And The Rise Of The Moralists
The Republican Party's current problems are rooted in its recent success. In the process of
expanding its base, the GOP has moved further to the right and is beginning to show signs of
fragmentation. The near doubling in size of the Moralist group -- from 10% of all adults in
1987 to 18% today -- illustrates the GOP's gains among white Southerners and Evangelical
Protestants. At the national level, the social and cultural conservatism of the Moralists has
displaced the fiscal conservatism and pro-business views of the Enterprisers as the dominant strain
of Republicanism.
The Enterprisers' political values and demographic characteristics have also changed
somewhat. The group described in 1987 displayed moderate views on abortion and issues of
personal freedom. They are still more moderate on some issues like gay rights, but are now the
Moralists' equal in anti-abortion sentiment. Enterprisers are no longer the most affluent typology
group, and they don't fit the image of country club Republicans as well as they did in 1987.
Many are devotees of radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh.
Some former Enterprisers appear to have migrated to a new typology group, the Libertarians.
They now make up only 4% of the adult population, but they may be a harbinger of a growing
rift within the GOP. The issues likely to mobilize the Moralists tend to drive the Libertarians
away from the party, and vice versa. As shown in the table below, these groups come into direct
conflict on social tolerance and business attitudes. Ironically, the largest group within a party
historically associated with business interests is in some respects anti-business.
The Moralists now dominate the Republican Party in Southern regions and in rural America,
where they are now about twice as numerous as Enterprisers and Libertarians combined.
Accounting for about a quarter of politically active adults in the South, Moralists are Oliver
North's base in his Virginia Senate campaign, and have helped South Carolina gubernatorial
candidate David Beasley become a rising star in the party.
In the Midwest, the Moralists also outnumber the other Republican-oriented groups, but by
a smaller margin (20% vs. 15%). Their impact is evidenced by religious fundamentalist Allen
Quist's challenge to Republican incumbent Governor Arne Carlson in Minnesota.
On the East and West coasts, and in cities and suburbs, the Moralists have not overtaken the
other two GOP groups. It is not surprising, then, that Republican Governors Wilson of
California, Weld of Massachusetts, and Whitman of New Jersey are more conventional, pro-
business Republicans.
66
The Democratic Party Today: Discordant And Dispirited
While the GOP is now experiencing its own internal dissension, the Democrats continue to
be the less cohesive party. Its primary constituencies are four disparate groups, differing by race,
class and political values. Historically, the Democrats have had a more difficult time organizing
their troops, but what is most alarming for the party today is the dispirited state of the rank and
file. Only the Partisan Poor demonstrates a strong loyalty to the party, and even this group lacks
the energy and enthusiasm of the Enterprisers on the Republican side.
The Partisan Poor and the New Dealers, two key voting blocs in FDR's coalition, represent
the party's past. In the postwar era, they have clashed over racial issues, and the predominately
white, socially conservative New Dealers became an political target for Republican presidential
candidates. While this group has been reduced by aging, many also appear to have defected to
the GOP. There numbers have slipped from 11% in 1987 to 8% today.
The two groups that represent the future for the Democratic Party -- New Democrats and
Seculars -- distance themselves more from the party (62% and 46%, respectively, call themselves
Democrats). New Democrats have a pro-business orientation that sets them apart from the rest
of the party, and they also disagree with party liberals on race and social issues. Seculars, despite
liberal Democratic values, feel estranged from the party establishment. Their differences with
the party have little to do with ideology. Instead, they see the party as old and tired. A majority
of Seculars (66%) believe white males have too much say Washington politics, and want women,
blacks and other minorities to have a greater voice. Six in ten (62%) Seculars think the country
needs a third major party, but clearly Ross Perot was not what they had in mind. Only the
Partisan Poor gave Perot a smaller share of their vote in 1992.
The New Democrats and Seculars share a commitment to the environment and dovish foreign
policy views, but show potential to clash over race and social tolerance issues. Neither group
regards Bill Clinton as a political hero. Their differences in religious belief and social tolerance
shows why dealing with issues like abortion and gays rights is so politically risky for Clinton.
The concentrations of Seculars on the East and West coasts tilt the party to the left in those
regions (15% of all adults in the Northeast, 12% in the West). Their greater numbers help
explain the 1992 Senate victories of two Democratic women -- Diane Feinstein and Barbara
Boxer -- in California. If Mario Cuomo is to be re-elected Governor in New York, maximizing
the Secular vote will be critical. In the Midwest, Seculars and New Democrats are at about equal
strength (8% vs. 9%).
The situation is very different in the South. New Democrats outnumber Seculars in the
Southern region by a two-to-one margin (11% vs. 4%) tilting the party rightward. This is also
the region where the two older Democratic-oriented groups -- the Partisan Poor and New Dealers
-- are most numerous, together accounting for 18% all adults compared with 12% in the non-
South.
Independents: Disconnected And Disillusioned
Since 1987, the center of the political typology has changed even more than the right or left.
The two politically active Independent-oriented groups -- New Economy Independents and the
Embittered -- differ from Independent groups in the previous typology in both demographic
67
characteristics and political values. Members of one group, the largest in the new typology, are
fearful of losing their middle class status. Many members of the second group are not yet in the
middle class and have little hope of reaching that level.
These two Independent groups highlight the link between political discontent and economic
anxiety in this country today. New Economy Independents and the Embittered differ in many
ways, but they share feelings of high financial pressure, distrust of politicians and lack of faith
in America. They are among those with the darkest view of their personal future. One-third of
working people in both groups doubt they will ever earn enough money to lead the kind of life
they want.
These groups also exemplify the failures of the two major parties -- especially the Democrats
-- to respond to economic and social changes. Both groups, the larger one with high proportions
of single mothers, and the other with concentrations of minorities and poor people, are natural
Democratic constituencies. Moreover, both groups have a family connection to the party.
Roughly half the Embittered (51%) and a plurality of New Economy Independents (44%) report
that their parents generally voted for Democrats.
New Economy Independents have a set of conflicting political values that makes them
unresponsive to traditional partisan appeals. Although their pro-environment views and low
militancy level pull them toward the Democratic Party, their lack of faith in government and
more conservative views on race pull them in the other direction. Unlike the Embittered,
however, they are less attracted to the GOP by moral issues. In fact, they are highly tolerant of
gays.
Composed primarily of working-class women, this group -- like the Seculars -- believes
political discourse is too dominated by white males. Many of them voted for Perot to express
their dissatisfaction with the status quo, and say they would do so again, but he may not be their
ideal candidate. Texas Governor Ann Richards, who maintains public favor while many of her
colleagues seen their ratings sink, is the kind of politician who appeals to this group. Illinois
gubernatorial candidate Dawn Clark Netsch, campaigning against business as usual, would seem
to be a candidate with a natural appeal to this group.
The Embittered have broken away from the Democratic Party in part because they have lost
faith in government's ability to improve their lives. This is the only group that strongly believes
discrimination has been the major barrier to blacks' progress but does not strongly endorse social
welfare programs. Three-quarters (73%) of the Embittered say government is always wasteful
and inefficient.
Another factor is their differences with the Democratic party on issues of personal morality.
This is evidenced in the Embittered's tendency to think the GOP does a better job promoting
traditional values (37% vs. 33%) and promoting morality and personal responsibility (42% vs.
34%). Ted Kennedy, who symbolized the Democrats' problems on these issues, receives a 56%
unfavorable rating among this group.
The Embittered, like the New Economy Independents, also have doubts about the party's
competence. By 40% to 33%, they have more trust in the GOP to manage the federal
government.
68
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF TYPOLOGY GROUPS
New Econ.
The Em-
New
New
Partisan
Enterprisers
Moralists
Libertarians
Independents
bittered
Bystanders
Seculars
Democrats
Dealers
Poor
Total
10
18
4
18
7
8
9
10
7
7
Sex
Men
60
53
73
40
47
42
45
40
50
44
Women
40
47
27
60
53
58
55
60
50
56
Race
White
97
95
97
87
71
80
90
81
86
58
Black
2
2
*
9
23
9
5
15
11
36
Hispanic
1
2
2
4
4
11
4
6
2
8
Asian
*
*
1
*
1
2
1
1
-
-
Other
1
1
1
3
4
9
2
2
3
5
Age
18-29
14
16
22
26
19
51
29
22
7
11
30-49
44
42
40
48
41
35
47
43
30
36
50-64
18
24
18
17
21
10
11
14
30
25
65 +
23
18
20
8
17
4
12
19
32
28
Education
College Graduate
33
20
41
19
14
5
44
19
10
13
Some College
30
22
28
26
21
16
27
20
16
14
High School Grad.
30
42
26
42
41
49
23
40
45
38
< H.S. Grad.
7
16
5
13
24
30
6
21
29
35
Region
East
19
16
20
22
17
23
35
22
18
14
Midwest
27
26
22
25
32
19
22
22
24
25
South
32
40
25
30
35
37
16
37
42
46
West
22
18
33
23
16
21
27
19
16
15
71
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF TYPOLOGY GROUPS con't
New Econ.
The Em-
New
New
Partisan
Enterprisers
Moralists
Libertarians
Independents
bittered
Bystanders
Seculars
Democrats
Dealers
Poor
Family Income
$75,000+
16
7
17
6
4
5
14
5
5
3
$50,000-$74,999
17
15
25
13
8
7
13
10
10
7
$30,000-$49,999
31
31
24
30
24
22
28
25
24
17
$20,000-$29,999
14
16
12
19
25
22
16
21
20
20
< $20,000
12
21
12
25
31
34
20
27
33
44
Marital Status
Married
70
67
55
51
57
44
42
54
62
48
Single
16
13
24
23
19
37
37
21
9
14
Divorced/Separated
9
12
12
19
15
16
14
16
10
19
Widowed
6
8
10
7
8
3
7
9
19
19
Parent
35
36
24
43
41
44
30
41
20
32
Single Mother
2
4
0
11
11
13
7
9
3
7
Union Household
Yes
12
17
8
17
21
14
16
18
25
19
No
88
83
92
83
79
86
83
82
75
81
Religion/Race
White Protestant
66
66
46
50
43
47
28
47
58
36
Black Protestant
1
1
1
6
19
7
3
11
9
31
Catholic
26
24
22
27
23
26
19
29
26
25
Jewish
1
1
6
2
*
1
11
2
2
1
Community
Large City
17
17
23
19
20
20
24
21
22
21
Suburb
28
23
33
25
16
20
29
23
16
16
Small City/Town
36
35
28
39
40
37
34
38
38
39
Rural Area
19
25
16
17
23
23
13
18
24
24
72
Despite their differences with the Democratic Party, the Embittered are not much attracted
to the GOP, the party of business and the affluent. They prefer the Democrats on the key issue
of jobs by nearly a two-to-one (47% vs. 26%), while New Economy Independents rate the two
parties close to even (41% Democrats, 35% GOP).
The Embittered may well have been part of the coalition that elected Republican Bret
Schundler in Jersey City, New Jersey, last year. Certainly, there is growing awareness that blacks
are no longer in the pocket of the Democratic Party. Jesse Jackson's proposed third or fourth
party candidacy might find support among this group as well as the New Economy Independents.
The Typology And Generational Politics
In the original typology, four of the 10 politically active groups had a distinct generational
flavor, suggesting that values formed at the time of political socialization continued to affect
contemporary political attitudes and behaviors. Two of these groups representing the pre-World
War II generation -- The New Dealers and Partisan Poor -- recur in the new typology. No longer
evident, however, is a unique set of political values associated with the civil rights and antiwar
movements of the 1960s, embodied in the '60s Democrats of the original typology. Also missing
is the Upbeats, a GOP-leaning Independent group that reflected the "don't worry, be happy" mid-
1980s. The recession and today's environment of economic uncertainty are probably responsible.
In effect, the electorate now divides politically at about age 50 -- between those born before
and after World War II, or perhaps more importantly, between those who came of age before the
television era and those who grew up with television. The Seculars and the New Economy
Independents each have a set of values associated with people who came of age in the postwar
era. But these two groups include as many individuals aged 30-49, essentially the baby-boom
generation, as they do younger people who are often referred to as Generation X.
The youngest segment of the adult population analyzed -- those aged 18 to 26 years -- were
too young to have been interviewed for the original typology survey in 1987. The typology
group distribution for these young people, many of whom will be first-time voters in the 1994
and 1996 elections, reflects the recent partisan de-alignment. The largest clusters for 18-24 year-
olds are the Bystanders (21%) and New Economy Independents (22%). The four Democratic-
oriented clusters (29%) are only slightly larger in size than the three GOP-oriented clusters (29%
vs. 24%).
The Typology And The Politics Of Black Americans
Trends in party identification among blacks show little change over the past seven years. The
typology group distributions, however, indicate that a major change in black political thinking
has taken place below the surface. Although blacks are no more inclined to embrace Republican
attitudes, they have become less prone to hold a set of political values that is explicitly
Democratic. As a result, Democrats can no longer take the black vote for granted.
In the new typology, only 5% of all black adults are classified in one of the three GOP-
oriented groups, much like the 4% of blacks who were classed as Enterprisers or Moralists in
1987. More positive attitudes toward government, more negative opinions of business, and
69
greater support for social welfare programs are among the key political values of blacks that tend
to keep most of them out of the GOP.
Over the same time period, however, the number of blacks classified in the four most solidly
Democratic groups has fallèn from 63% to 54%. Nearly one-third of the black adult population
are now Independent-oriented in their thinking: 16% are New Economy Independents and another
16% are counted among the Embittered.
The generational changes in African Americans' loyalty to the Democratic Party are seen in
shrinking size of the Partisan Poor group. Nearly half (44%) of blacks over 50 fall into this
group, compared with only about one-fourth (23%) of those aged 30-49, and fewer still (14%)
of blacks under 30. The Partisan Poor are also less common among urban blacks.
No single political way of thinking is predominate among blacks under 30. The largest
cluster are New Economy Independents (23%), followed by Bystanders (17%), the Embittered
(16%), New Democrats (15%) and Partisan Poor (14%).
The Typology And The Politics Of Gender
The new typology delineates the political values that underlie partisan differences between
men and women in the 1990s. Women are less critical of government, more supportive of federal
programs for the poor, more reluctant to use military force, and more tolerant of alternative
lifestyles. Women are also tend to feel more financially pressured than men. All these
differences tend to push women toward the left side of the political spectrum and men more
toward the right.
*
New Economy Independents, one of the two groups with the highest
proportions of women (60%), have a "female" set of values with one
exception -- they are relatively critical of government. Together with the
race issue, this may be enough to keep them out of the Democratic Party
-- but not enough to embrace the GOP.
*
New Democrats are the other group dominated by women (60%). In this
case, it is their extraordinarily positive view of government that seems
critical to their identification with the Democratic Party. Their pro-
business stance and more conservative views on race are more consistent
with a Republican way of thinking.
*
The two predominately male groups are Republican-oriented and share a
deep skepticism toward government and strong opposition to social
welfare programs: Enterprisers (60% male) and Libertarians (73% male).
70
POLITICAL PROFILE OF TYPOLOGY GROUPS
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
Party ID
Republican
29
75
65
54
17
16
15
6
6
1
*
Democrat
33
2
1
5
27
36
25
47
62
82
89
Independent
35
22
30
40
52
39
52
46
29
15
9
Repub./Lean Repub.
45
95
92
81
39
34
35
14
12
3
1
Dem./Lean Dem.
47
3
4
14
48
51
47
77
81
94
99
Past Vote*
Clinton
44
6
14
20
45
51
--
74
69
70
83
Bush
37
79
66
52
25
28
--
11
15
13
8
Perot
19
14
20
27
29
21
--
14
15
17
9
Other
*
2
*
1
2
1
--
1
*
0
0
1996 Vote Preference**
Clinton
39
7
11
20
37
49
--
73
61
65
71
Dole
36
79
63
57
27
21
--
10
15
14
10
Perot
20
10
22
17
30
25
--
14
18
19
16
Other/Undecided
5
4
4
6
6
5
--
3
6
2
3
Clinton Approval
Approve
45
12
23
30
41
44
44
74
70
60
78
Disapprove
46
83
71
62
48
45
34
17
23
32
16
No Opinion
9
5
6
8
11
11
22
9
7
8
6
Evangelicals
Republican
Evangelicals***
17
34
44
7
13
14
12
2
5
1
*
White Democratic
Evangelicals***
15
1
2
2
12
20
14
2
31
38
51
Black Democratic
Evangelicals***
13
*
1
1
9
18
10
1
25
34
52
Political Knowledge
High
29
55
29
47
23
23
10
49
19
18
19
Medium
29
27
35
31
31
28
23
26
28
36
25
Low
42
18
36
22
46
49
67
25
53
46
56
73
POLITICAL PROFILE OF TYPOLOGY GROUPS con't
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
Political Vocalization
Regular Listener
To Talk Radio
17
34
17
23
16
13
10
15
12
13
13
Contacted Washington
In Past 12 Months
26
45
30
34
24
22
5
34
22
26
14
Both
6
19
6
8
5
5
1
6
4
4
3
Neither
64
40
59
51
65
70
86
57
70
65
77
*
Based on those who report having voted for President in 1992
Based on registered voters
Includes Leaners
74
SECTION 4: CONSEQUENCES
The impact of the changes in voter values and attitudes has major consequences for key areas
of U.S. political life. These areas are arranged into four categories: priorities, policy issues, voter
intentions, and institutions.
PUBLIC PRIORITIES
With the Cold War over, the public's priorities have shifted away from foreign affairs in
favor of domestic issues. Over the past year, after having been an important issue at the local
level for some time, national surveys find that crime has supplanted economic concerns as the
country's top problem. In January 1992, only 3% of the public named crime as the top problem
in a national Times Mirror Center survey. In the July 1994 survey, crime was cited as the most
important problem by roughly one-fourth (26%) of the public.
Next on the public's list were health care (14%) and jobs/unemployment (12%). Concerns
about public morals, ethics and values placed fourth (9%), followed by poverty and homelessness
(7%).
Despite the international trouble spots that have been a focus of news coverage over the past
year -- including Bosnia, Haiti, and Cuba -- all mentions of defense and foreign policy problems
combined account for only 7% of responses to the question about the nation's most important
problem.
The public's growing preoccupation with crime and a perceived decline in moral values have
worked to the political advantage of the Republicans. Currently, the Republicans have a slight
advantage (36% vs. 33%) as the party better able to handle the nation's top problem. During the
last presidential campaign, when the economy and jobs were the public's primary focus, the
Democrats were generally named more often than the Republicans.
As shown in the following table, those who believe crime is the number one issue are sharply
divided on which party has a better approach to dealing with it, a view that may explain the
difficulties Congress experienced in reaching agreement on a crime bill. By contrast, health care
-- like poverty and homelessness -- is an issue of greater concern to Democrats and one on which
the Democratic Party is regarded as better able to handle. By the same token, the morality issue
is generally perceived as Republican turf.
While the public has traditionally held more confidence in the Democrats to deal with
unemployment, this concern is now broader and encompasses underemployment as well as
joblessness. At present, the Democrats have a sizeable edge on the issue of jobs and
unemployment.
75
POLITICAL PARTY BEST ABLE TO HANDLE
MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
Cited As Most Important Problem:
Health
Unempl./
Morality/
Poverty/
Total
Crime
Care
Jobs
Values
Homeless
%
%
%
%
%
%
Total
100
26
14
12
9
7
Which Party Better Able
To Handle That Problem:
Republican
36
36
27
32
54
26
Democrat
33
32
48
46
17
50
No Difference
16
17
12
11
18
14
Don't Know
15
15
13
11
11
10
100
100
100
100
100
100
Crime now rates as the top concern of all 10 typology groups, but it is mentioned most often
by two of the more affluent groups (the Republican-oriented Enterprisers and Libertarians) and
two middle class groups (New Economy Independents and New Democrats). Issues other than
crime are salient to a more narrow segment of the electorate:
*
Health Care is of greatest concern to two Democratic groups, one
composed of liberal social reformers (Seculars) and the other a group
containing a high proportion of retired people (New Dealers).
*
Jobs is most on the minds of three Democratic-oriented groups, the
Partisan Poor, New Dealers and New Democrats.
*
Morality matters most to the Enterprisers and Moralists, the groups with
the highest numbers of white Evangelicals.
*
Poverty is named as the top concern by two of the least affluent groups,
the Partisan Poor and the Bystanders.
Another issue -- the federal budget deficit -- is of secondary concern to most of the public,
but rates as a top concern among a specific typology group: the Libertarians. Thirteen percent
of Libertarians cited the deficit as the top problem, placing it second only to crime on their list.
This might help explain Perot's appeal to this group in 1992.
76
MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
Health
Unemploy./
Morality/
Poverty/
Crime
Care
Jobs
Values
Homeless
%
%
%
%
%
Total
26
14
12
9
7
Enterprisers
29
9
5
18
1
Moralists
21
11
12
14
4
Libertarians
30
7
4
5
2
New Economy
Independents
31
13
11
5
9
The Embittered
26
14
10
9
7
Bystanders
21
13
14
6
11
Seculars
25
19
12
6
8
New Democrats
29
16
16
6
9
New Dealers
24
20
18
6
6
Partisan Poor
27
16
17
5
11
While economic concerns are less on peoples' minds than a few years ago, they remain just
as high as ever on the public's order of priorities for the President's attention. Since December
of last year, Times Mirror has asked survey respondents to choose one issue from a list of five
as Bill Clinton's top priority. Results to this question now show "reducing crime" holding the
top position (24%). But Americans are about equally likely to select "improving the job
situation" (23%), and nearly as apt to choose "reducing the budget deficit" (21%). "Reforming
health care" (15%) and "reforming the welfare system" (15%), now bring up the rear.
Since last December, crime and welfare reform have risen slightly in their importance to the
public, while jobs has declined modestly. Health care reform, despite all the debate this year on
the issue, has never climbed above fourth place since then.
Crime has a lot of competition from other issues as a priority among the various typology
groups. On the GOP side, Enterprisers cite the deficit slightly higher than they do crime and
welfare reform nearly as high as crime while Moralists give crime and the deficit about equal
priority. Libertarians see both crime and welfare as secondary to the deficit, their defining issue.
In the center of the electorate, jobs takes on greater importance, sharing the top position with
crime among New Economy Independents, Bystanders and the Embittered.
On the Democratic side of the electorate, jobs are clearly number one in the minds of New
Dealers and the Partisan Poor. New Democrats put jobs on a par with crime. Seculars alone
among the groups say health care should be Clinton's top concern.
77
PRIORITIES FOR THE PRESIDENT
BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
Reducing
Improving
Reducing
Reforming
Reforming
Crime
Job Situation
Deficit
Health Care
Welfare
%
%
%
%
%
Total
24
23
21
15
15
Enterprisers
28
9
31
5
25
Moralists
27
20
27
8
17
Libertarians
22
18
32
7
20
New Economy
Independents
26
25
20
15
13
The Embittered
24
25
18
18
14
Bystanders
27
31
14
13
12
Seculars
17
20
17
30
13
New Democrats
27
26
19
17
10
New Dealers
18
30
16
18
14
Partisan Poor
19
34
13
21
11
Bill Clinton's job performance ratings on these five specific issues are even lower than his
overall approval rating. Last July, he scored a 45% rating overall, but received lower scores for
his handling of the jobs situation (40%), health care policy (39%), welfare reform (38%), crime
(35%), and the federal budget deficit (31%).
On four other issues tested, the public gave Clinton equally negative scores on two items, his
handling of the economy (38%) and foreign policy (38%). His approval exceeded the 50% mark
for only two of the other four issues tested, relations with Russia (62%) and race relations (57%).
APPROVAL OF CLINTON'S HANDLING
OF VARIOUS ISSUES
Approve
Disapprove
Don't Know
%
%
%
Relations With Russia
62
22
16 = 100
Race Relations
57
27
16 = 100
OVERALL
45
46
9 = 100
Jobs Situation
40
52
8 = 100
Health Care Policy
39
54
7 = 100
Welfare Reform
38
50
12 = 100
Foreign Policy
38
53
9 = 100
Economic Conditions
38
56
6 = 100
Crime
35
55
10 = 100
Federal Budget Deficit
31
58
11 = 100
78
Analysis of issue priorities and Clinton job approval ratings for the various typology groups
highlights the President's vulnerabilities across the political spectrum. The deficit and crime are
two issues that register a high negative impact² for all three Republican groups -- Enterprisers,
Moralists and Libertarians. Welfare reform -- which has taken a back seat to health care reform
-- is an issue compounding the President's problems among the very vocal Enterprisers.
In the center of the electorate, crime and jobs are the issues most damaging to Clinton
politically, although the deficit also plays a role.
Despite the improving economy, the jobs issue is hurting Clinton somewhat among his
Democratic base. Among both the Partisan Poor and the New Democrats, two groups that have
become less likely to vote to re-elect the President, the jobs issue is having a high negative
impact.
ISSUE IMPACT ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL
BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
Cited As TOP PRIORITY For Clinton
And DISAPPROVE Of Clinton's Handling Of That Issue
Reducing
Improving
Reducing
Reforming
Reforming
Crime
Job Situation
Deficit
Welfare
Health Care
%
%
%
%
%
Total
16
16
15
9
4
Enterprisers
23
6
24
18
3
Moralists
19
15
20
12
5
Libertarians
18
12
24
14
1
New Economy
Independents
19
19
15
9
6
The Embittered
15
24
15
10
7
Bystanders
16
18
16
7
4
Seculars
8
10
10
7
4
New Democrats
13
16
9
3
2
New Dealers
14
14
10
5
5
Partisan Poor
9
21
5
8
4
2
An issue scores a high negative impact if 15% or more of a typology group's members rate it the
President's top priority and disapprove of the way he is handling the issue.
79
ISSUES
Americans are more divided on economic and social policy issues, with those divisions
evident on the left as well as the right as well as the public as a whole. There is more consensus
on issues involving foreign policy and crime.
In foreign policy, substantial support was shown across the board for using U.S. military force
to prevent North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons. For the most part, Democratic- and
Republican-oriented groups say they favor such a policy. Those least likely to express support
for the use of force in North Korea are the liberally-oriented Seculars. Even among this group,
however, nearly 70% say they would favor this course of action. New Dealers are the most likely
to favor using force in North Korea (78% in favor) followed closely by Moralists (77%).
Americans are far less likely to favor the use of force to restore democracy in Haiti. A
minority of the public -- 43% -- say they would favor such a policy. Democratic groups are
more inclined toward committing U.S. forces in Haiti than are the Republican groups. Among
New Democrats, 52% say they favor the use of force there, with the Partisan Poor and New
Dealers also counted among the most supportive. Enterprisers and the Embittered express least
support -- only 33% and 34% in favor, respectively.
In general, the public wants to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of a distant, unfriendly
regime than it wants to restore democracy to a nearby, Third World nation. U.S. administrations
are likely to see these attitudes reflected in the degree of public support for its foreign initiatives.
A Consensus On Crime
Crime has topped the list of the nation's most important problems for some time now. This
concern is clearly illustrated in the overwhelming public support for a policy of lifetime jail
sentences with no chance of parole for anyone convicted of three or more violent crimes -- the
so-called "three strikes and you're out" approach. Eighty-five percent of the public say they favor
such a policy, including at least 75% of each typology group. Seculars and the Partisan Poor are
the least likely to favor this policy, but the uniformity on this issue is nonetheless remarkable.
On another crime-related issue, gun control, support for restrictions on hand gun sales is less
intense and less consistent. Fifty-eight percent of Americans say they would favor a policy
restricting the sale of hand guns. Seculars, although least likely to favor the "three strikes"
policy, are most likely to favor hand gun control (75% in favor). New Independents and New
Democrats are also more likely than most to say they favor tougher gun control policies. Overall,
Republicans are less likely to favor gun control than Democrats, and Enterprisers are the least
likely of all.
On economic issues, large majorities of the public favor new federal spending for education
and job training for American workers whose jobs have been eliminated. Eighty-eight percent
of the public say they would favor such an initiative, with higher levels of support coming from
Seculars and New Economy Independents and more tepid support coming from Enterprisers and
Libertarians. Predictably, nearly all New Economy Independents (95%) favor this type of federal
spending; job security is a major concern among them, and they are among the most likely
beneficiaries of such programs. Similarly, Libertarians, one of the most fiscally conservative
groups in the public, are most resistant to new federal spending initiatives.
80
In contrast to attitudes on federal job training and education programs, far fewer Americans
are willing to pay higher taxes to cut the deficit. Again, Enterprisers are most resistant to such
a policy; only 16% favor it. Republicans are united on this particular issue. Only one out of four
Moralists and an equal proportion of Libertarians would be willing to pay higher income taxes
for this purpose.
Democrats Split On Taxes To Cut Deficit
Democrats, on the other hand, are largely divided on the issue. Forty-one percent of Seculars
and 36% of New Democrats favor higher taxes for reducing the deficit; but only 24% of New
Dealers and 33% of the Partisan Poor say they would be willing to make such a sacrifice.
Independent groups line up with the Republican-oriented groups on deficit reduction, though
presumably more for economic than ideological reasons. New Economy Independents and the
Embittered may also be concerned about the deficit, but their own economic circumstances could
be driving them against new taxes for this purpose.
More than any other economic policy proposal, reducing the capital gains tax to encourage
investment in U.S. companies appeals to the Republican-oriented groups, but it also gets majority
support from every other group as well. Eighty-three percent of Enterprisers say they would
favor a cut in the capital gains tax, 82% of Libertarians agree, as do 71% of Moralists. Least
support comes from the Partisan Poor, but most of them are nonetheless in favor (54%), with
Independent groups in the middle (roughly seven out of ten in favor).
Trade Issues Divisive
Free trade appears divisive for Democrats and Republicans alike. A majority of the public
(62%) favors free trade agreements between the United States and other countries, such as
NAFTA and GATT. Moralists are much less likely to favor such agreements than are
Enterprisers and Libertarians. While Seculars and Enterprisers don't agree on much, this is an
issue where they do see eye to eye. Among both groups 75% say they favor NAFTA-like
agreements, a full 13% points higher than the average. New Dealers and the Partisan Poor are
much less likely to favor free trade; both blue collar Democratic groups are evenly split on this
issue. New Democrats, on the other hand, are closer to Seculars, with over two out of three
(68%) favoring free trade agreements.
Social policy initiatives stir a great deal of controversy among the various typology groups.
Medicaid funding for abortions is a particularly divisive issue. Forty-three percent of the public
say they favor allowing government Medicaid benefits to help pay for abortions for low-income
women. Across typology groups the percent in favor of such a policy ranges from a low of 28%
among Enterprisers to a high of 79% among Seculars. Moralists are close to Enterprisers on this
issue (26% in favor), while Libertarians are a world apart (66% in favor). New Democrats, New
Dealers and the Partisan Poor are all of a like mind on the issue of Medicaid funding for
abortion, around 40% of each group say they would favor such a policy. Half of New Economy
Independents say they would favor this type of funding, while only 37% of the Embittered agree
-- not surprising given that they are more religious overall than the New Economy group.
81
On the issue of employer mandates as part of a health care reform package, the parties are
less divided. Among the four Democratically-oriented groups, roughly seven out of ten favor
reform that would require employers to pay most insurance costs for their workers. New Dealers
are slightly less likely to favor an employer mandate, probably because many in this aging group
are already enjoying Medicare benefits. On the right, Enterprisers (25%) and Libertarians (38%)
are the least likely to favor employer mandates, while most Moralists (55%) are in favor.
Shifting Allies On The Right
Conservative alliances shift again on the issue of allowing gays to serve openly in the
military. Here Enterprisers and Moralists are closely aligned in opposition. Libertarians, on the
other hand, are overwhelmingly in favor. Democratic groups are also divided on this issue.
Seculars stand out in favor of such a policy (88%), while less than half of New Dealers and the
Partisan Poor share the same view.
New Economy Independents and the Embittered are also divided on gays in the military. The
attitude of the Embittered is probably related to their intense religious beliefs; much as they
oppose abortion, they may well oppose the homosexual lifestyle more generally.
Public opinion is more consistent -- and largely opposed --on welfare benefits, both for
Americans and for illegal immigrants living in this country. Overall, more than three out of four
Americans say they would favor a two-year limit for welfare beneficiaries. Nearly as many,
69%, would favor changing U.S. policy so illegal immigrants are not eligible for welfare,
Medicaid and other government benefits. The only group to show less than overwhelming
support for both of these initiatives is the Partisan Poor, many of whom are probably welfare
recipients themselves. There is strong support for welfare reform among Enterprisers and
Libertarians, both staunchly anti-big government in their thinking.
Smoking Ban Majorities
The last social issue in the survey dealt with attitudes toward banning cigarette smoking in
all public places. Overall, 57% of the public favors a smoking ban. Bystanders and New Dealers
are the only two groups in which a majority was opposed.
More bad news for Congress comes in strong public support for congressional term limits.
Always a popular issue, the idea attracts overwhelming support today (80%). This proposal finds
its greatest support among Libertarians, Moralists and New Dealers, and least among Seculars.
Finally, the issue of school prayer continues to divide the public and highlight the sharp
schisms within the two major parties over issues dealing with religion and morality. On the
Republican side, Enterprisers and Moralists are united in their support for a constitutional
amendment allowing prayer in school (86% and 88% in favor, respectively). Libertarians are
much less inclined to favor school prayer (52% in favor). Large majorities of both Independent
groups favor prayer in school, as do at least 75% of all New Democrats, New Dealers and
Partisan Poor. Seculars stand out among the crowd on this issue, with less than a third in favor
of such a constitutional amendment.
82
VIEWS ON THE ISSUES BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
(Percent Who FAVOR)
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
Foreign Policy:
Using U.S. military force
to prevent N. Korea
from obtaining nuclear
weapons
71
70
77
70
70
70
71
63
73
78
68
Using U.S. military force
to restore democracy
in Haiti
43
33
45
44
40
34
40
40
52
50
51
Crime:
Restricting sale of
hand guns
58
40
53
56
64
59
62
75
63
54
58
Three-strikes and your
out policy
85
87
89
88
89
80
83
75
85
84
76
Economics:
Increasing income tax
to reduce deficit
26
16
24
24
24
21
25
41
36
24
33
Free trade agreements
between U.S. and other
countries (like NAFTA)
62
75
55
73
62
55
57
75
68
49
51
83
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
New federal spending
for education and job
training for displaced
American workers
88
70
89
80
95
86
90
96
89
86
89
Reducing capital gains
tax to encourage invest-
ment in U.S. companies
69
83
71
82
72
69
60
69
65
61
54
Social Policy:
Allowing Medicaid to
help pay for abortions
43
28
26
66
51
37
45
79
41
38
39
Health care reform
requiring employer
mandate
62
25
55
38
73
65
72
72
76
68
72
Allowing gays to serve
openly in the military
52
34
30
66
71
44
51
88
54
46
43
Two-year limit on
welfare benefits
76
85
85
84
75
70
68
69
73
79
58
Eliminating welfare and
other benefits for illegal
immigrants
69
83
75
86
72
65
58
63
57
72
55
84
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
Other:
Total ban on cigarette
smoking in all public
places
57
51
63
62
55
56
48
61
65
45
54
Term limitations for
members of Congress
80
81
84
89
86
80
70
69
76
83
73
Constitutional Amend-
ment allowing prayer in
schools
74
86
88
52
73
85
69
31
75
77
80
(Based on Q.25)
85
INTENTIONS
Clinton Approval
When we asked Americans in July how they felt about the job Bill Clinton is doing as
President, we found them evenly divided. Forty-five percent of the public said they approve of
the way Clinton is handling his job; a nearly equal proportion (46%) said they disapprove. Six
weeks later, when we called back a sample of the same respondents, the disapproval rate had
risen to 52%, reflecting the difficulty he had in getting the crime bill passed and his reduced
hopes for health care reform this year.
These numbers mask a deeper problem Clinton faces: those who disapprove of the job the
President is doing are more likely to hold strong opinions than those who approve. Twenty-nine
percent of the public express strong disapproval of Clinton, only 17% express strong approval.
Independents, GOP Down On President
Predictably, Clinton receives his highest overall job approval ratings from Democratic-
oriented groups and his lowest ratings from Republicans. Independents fall in between, but like
Republicans, they are more likely to express strongly negative views of the President than
strongly positive ones.
Enterprisers, who are not only the most partisan Republican group in the electorate but are
also the most politically vocal, are the least approving of Clinton overall; 83% disapprove of the
way Bill Clinton is handling his job, and 68% disapprove very strongly. Clinton's strongest
supporters, the Partisan Poor, show nowhere near that level of intensity in their approval of the
President. Seventy-eight percent of the Partisan Poor say they approve of the job Clinton is
doing, but only 42% characterize that approval as very strong. Noteworthy in this respect is that
the Partisan Poor are the least politically vocal group in the electorate, with the exception of
Bystanders.
In sum, Democrats are less intensely positive toward Bill Clinton and less likely to articulate
their approval. Republicans feel more strongly about the president and are more likely to make
their voices heard.
86
Clinton Approval by Typology Group
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
No
Total
Strongly
Total
Strongly
Opinion
Total
45
17
46
29
9 = 100
Enterprisers
12
4
83
68
5 = 100
Moralists
23
5
71
51
6 = 100
Libertarians
30
7
62
40
8 = 100
New Economy
Independents
41
11
48
25
11 = 100
Embittered
44
18
45
26
11 = 100
Bystanders
45
11
34
16
21 = 100
Seculars
74
33
17
6
9 = 100
New Democrats
70
33
23
11
7 = 100
New Dealers
60
34
32
20
8 = 100
Partisan Poor
78
42
16
9
6 = 100
1996 Presidential Trial Heats
With approval ratings significantly below the 50% mark, Bill Clinton would have difficulty
winning re-election in today's political environment. But many voters who are unhappy with
Clinton's performance seem reluctant to vote for a Republican. Voter demand for a major
Independent or third party alternative is at least as high in 1994 as it was in 1992, when Clinton
was elected with 43% in a three-way race. If Clinton faced the voters in a similar three-way race
today, he might still be able to pull out a victory, although perhaps by a closer margin.
Matched in a three-way test election against Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole -- the front-
runner in most Republican presidential preference polls and Independent Ross Perot, Clinton
wins a slight plurality of the vote (39%). Dole places second with 36%, and Perot receives 20%,
one point better than his actual share of the vote in 1992. The high vote total for Perot seems
to be more an indicator of voters' desire for a third choice than their support for Texas
billionaire. The public's view of Perot himself has become more negative since the last
presidential election.
An analysis of presidential preferences for 1996 by major demographic and political
subgroups, compared to 1992 election results, shows the President losing favor among the
following groups:
*
Black Voters. Critical to Clinton's success in the Democratic primaries
and the general election, black support has fallen from 85% to 77%, for
a loss of 8% points (-8). They have shifted to the Perot column, and
appears to represent a protest vote. Many blacks are still waiting for the
"jobs, jobs, jobs" which candidate Clinton has failed to deliver.
87
*
The Least Well Educated. Clinton's support among this traditionally
Democratic group has declined from 49% to 41% (-8). Here, too, the
shift has been toward Perot. People without a high school education have
an especially difficult time in today's economy, and Clinton seems to be
held accountable.
*
Union Households. Clinton's vote is down from 52% to 45% (-7) among
voters in labor union households. In this case, the shift has been to Bob
Dole. In part, this may be a consequence of NAFTA.
*
Jewish Voters. Support for Clinton has dropped from 80% to 65% (-15)
among Jewish voters, with Bob Dole the beneficiary of this shift. Among
this well educated, affluent group, Clinton is especially vulnerable on
crime and foreign policy, and less so on the economy.
88
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE PREFERENCE
Three-Way Race
1992*
1996**
Clinton
Bush
Perot
Other
Clinton Dole
Perot
Other
Total
43
37
19
= 100
39
36
20
5 = 100
Sex
Male
38
37
23
2=100
35
39
23
3= 100
Female
47
36
16
= 100
43
34
18
5 = 100
Race
White
38
40
20
2=100
35
40
21
4 = 100
Black
85
7
7
= 100
77
6
13
4= 100
Hispanic
48
19
31
2=100
48
20
30
2= 100
Asian
33
45
21
1=100
53
29
10
8= 100
Other
57
23
16
4=100
47
26
20
= 100
Age
18-29
34
37
27
2=100
35
30
31
= 100
30-49
41
37
21
= 100
36
36
23
5 = 100
50-64
46
36
16
2 = 100
43
39
15
3= 100
65+
51
37
11
= 100
45
39
11
5 = 100
Education
College Grad.
41
41
17
= 100
40
42
13
= 100
Some College
41
39
19
= 100
38
39
19
= 100
H. S. Grad.
43
34
22
= 100
39
34
23
= 100
< High School
49
32
16
3=100
41
28
26
5 = 100
Income
$75,000+
36
45
18
1=100
34
44
18
= 100
$50,000-74,999
35
47
17
1=100
33
48
17
2= 100
$30,000-49,999
41
35
23
= 100
37
37
23
3= 100
$20,000-29,999
44
34
21
1 = 100
40
34
22
= 100
< $20,000
52
29
16
3=100
49
26
20
= 100
Marital Status
Married
38
40
21
1=100
34
40
22
= 100
Single
47
33
19
1=100
44
30
21
= 100
Divorced/
Separated
49
28
21
= 100
52
26
18
= 100
Widowed
59
32
7
2=100
51
33
10
6= 100
Parent
39
37
22
2=100
35
35
26
4=100
Union Household
Yes
52
27
20
1=100
45
30
21
= 100
No
41
39
19
= 100
38
38
20
4=100
Religion/Race
White Protestant
33
46
19
2=100
31
44
21
= 100
Black Protestant
85
7
7
= 100
79
5
12
= 100
Catholic
41
35
23
= 100
38
35
22
= 100
Jewish
80
11
9
0 = 100
65
18
8
= 100
89
1992*
1996**
Clinton Bush Perot Other
Clinton Dole Perot Other
Region
East
46
33
20
= 100
41
33
20
6 = 100
Midwest
41
39
19
= 100
39
37
19
5 = 100
South
42
42
15
= 100
39
37
21
3 = 100
West
43
30
24
3= 100
39
38
20
3 = 100
Community Size
Large City
56
28
15
= 100
51
30
15
4 = 100
Suburb
39
40
20
= 100
36
40
20
4 = 100
Small City/Town
43
39
17
= 100
39
38
19
4 = 100
Rural Area
37
36
24
3= 100
32
35
27
6 = 100
(Based on Q.3,4 and 53)
*
Based on those who report having voted for President in 1992
**
Based on registered voters
Analysis of presidential preferences and reported vote by the typology groups goes beyond
demographics to identify three types of voters -- one Independent-oriented and two Democratic-
oriented -- who have become less likely to vote for Bill Clinton:
*
New Economy Independents. Deeply dissatisfied with the state of the
nation, the large group of swing voters gave Clinton 45% of their vote
last time, but only 37% said they would vote for him in a 1994 test
election (-8). The President is vulnerable on both crime and jobs, the two
issues this group rates as his most important priorities.
*
New Democrats. Support for Clinton among his original constituency of
pro-business Democrats has declined from 68% to 61% (-7). The issue
of crime is a key source of their dissatisfaction.
*
Partisan Poor. No group gave Clinton in larger share of its vote in 1992,
but he is losing his hold on this bedrock Democratic group. His support
has fallen from 82% to 71% (-11). The jobs issue is their source of
dissatisfaction.
In general, patterns of support for hypothetical GOP candidate Bob Dole mirror those seen
for George Bush in the last election. Dole's base of support is the Enterprisers (79%). The two
other GOP-oriented groups, the Moralists and Libertarians, are no more likely to vote for Dole
than the Democratic-oriented groups are to support Clinton.
90
While the Perot vote in the test election is numerically similar to his share of the vote in
1992, its composition has changed. His most supportive groups were the New Economy
Independents (29%) and the Libertarians (27%). The New Economy Independents show potential
to again be one of his most supportive groups for 1996 (30%), but the Libertarians do not (17%).
In part, this may be because Libertarians have more positive views of Bob Dole than they did of
George Bush. Perot, however, appears to have lost favor with Libertarians since the election;
they view him as much negatively as positively (49% vs. 49%).
If an election were held today, Perot's coalition would shift more to the left politically.
While fewer Enterprisers and Libertarians would vote for him, he would be likely to win more
voters from the Partisan Poor, the Embittered and New Democrats.
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE PREFERENCE BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
Three-Way Race
1992*
1996**
Clinton
Bush
Perot
Other
Clinton
Dole
Perot
Other
Total
43
37
19
= 100
39
36
20
5 = 100
Enterprisers
6
78
14
= 100
7
79
10
4 = 100
Moralists
14
66
20
* = 100
11
63
22
4 = 100
Libertarians
20
52
27
1 = 100
20
57
17
6 = 100
New Economy
Independents
45
24
29
= 100
37
27
30
6 = 100
Embittered
51
27
21
= 100
49
21
25
5 = 100
Seculars
72
11
14
= 100
73
10
14
3 = 100
New Democrats
68
15
15
2 = 100
61
15
18
6 = 100
New Dealers
69
13
17
= 100
65
14
19
2 = 100
Partisan Poor
82
8
9
= 100
71
10
16
3 = 100
(Based on Q.3, 4 and 53)
*
Based on those who report having voted for President in 1992
** Based on registered voters
Without a Ross Perot in the race, Bill Clinton's chances of being re-elected are diminished.
In two-way test elections, Clinton fails to defeat either Bob Dole or Colin Powell. But a race
between Clinton and Dole, another conventional politician, promises to be much closer than a
race between Clinton and Powell, an military hero and political outsider.
Huge Powell Edge
Powell's advantage over Clinton in the trial heat is 10 points (51% vs. 41%), while Dole's
lead is 3 points (49% vs. 46%). The Clinton-Powell race has a larger proportion undecided vote
(8% vs. 5%), presumably because Powell's politics are more of an unknown quantity.
91
Bob Dole's voter support is concentrated in the Republican-oriented groups. He garners a
significantly higher share of the Moralist vote than Powell (84% vs. 77%) and does marginally
better among Enterprisers and Libertarians. Powell, however, shows a greater ability to win votes
outside of the GOP's core. Most importantly, his vote among New Economy Independents is 7
points higher than Dole's, converting a 49% to 43% Clinton (vs. Dole) advantage into a 50% to
41% advantage for Powell (vs. Clinton) and the Republicans.
Powell non-ideological appeal is evident. He ran significantly better than Dole among both
the liberal Seculars (+12) and conservative New Dealers (+9). The Embittered, who have a low
opinion of the military, are the only non-Republican group that is less likely to support Powell
than Dole.
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE PREFERENCE BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
Two-Way Race*
1996
1996
Clinton
Dole
Other
Clinton
Powell
Other
Total
46
49
5 = 100
41
51
8 = 100
Enterprisers
13
85
2 = 100
9
82
9 = 100
Moralists
12
84
4 = 100
17
77
6 = 100
Libertarians
19
77
4 = 100
19
74
7 = 100
New Economy
Independents
49
43
8 = 100
41
50
9 = 100
Embittered
54
39
7 = 100
59
33
8 = 100
Seculars
84
13
3 = 100
66
25
9 = 100
New Democrats
67
26
7 = 100
65
27
8 = 100
New Dealers
71
22
7 = 100
63
31
6 = 100
Partisan Poor
81
18
1 = 100
74
21
5 = 100
(Based on Q.5-8)
*
Based on registered voters
Congressional Preferences for 1994
As the off-year congressional elections approach, the political climate is turning against Bill
Clinton and the Democrats. A Times Mirror Center survey this month (September, 1994) of
1,500 respondents who had participated in the July survey, shows that Clinton's approval ratings
have further deteriorated. Today, more Americans disapprove than approve of the way he is
handling his job as president (52% vs. 42%). Even after the passage of the crime bill, the public
is not significantly more likely to see Clinton as an effective leader; 54% do not believe he is
"able to get things done."
Registered voters have become increasingly likely to say they will vote for a Republican for
Congress this fall. Last July, the Republicans trailed the Democrats by two points, 45% to 47%,
in a trial heat measuring congressional voting intentions at the national level. In September, the
congressional vote has shifted to a two-point Republican edge (48% vs. 46%).
92
OPINION CHANGE OVER THE SUMMER
July 12-27
Sept. 9-11
1994
1994
Opinion of Way Clinton
Is Handling Job As President:
Approve
45
42
Disapprove
46
52
Don't know
9
6
100
100
Congressional Voting
Intentions*:
Republican
45
48
Democrat
47
46
Other/Undecided
8
6
100
100
Image of Clinton:
Trustworthy
46
47
Not Trustworthy
49
49
Neither
2
3
Don't know
3
1
100
100
Able to Get Things Done
40
41
Not Able to Get Things Done
56
54
Neither
2
5
Don't know
2
0
100
100
*
Based on Registered Voters
Since there is no national election for the U.S. House of Representatives, but 435 separate
local contests instead, voting intentions at the national level do not translate directly into specific
number of House seats for each party. The party which holds the White House nearly always
suffers losses in the House during the off-year elections, and 1994 is not likely to be an
exception. Bill Clinton's unpopularity and the degree to which he tends to polarize the
electorate, however, decreases further the prospects for Democrats. They can expect to lose more
than the 22-seat average loss in the House for off-year elections since World War II.
A Times Mirror analysis finds that voter opinion of Bill Clinton is as strong a predictor of
the congressional vote as opinion of Ronald Reagan was in 1982 when the Democrats made major
gains in the House. The relationship between presidential approval and congressional voting
intentions was much weaker in 1990, when there was very little turnover in the House.
93
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL & CONGRESSIONAL VOTER INTENTIONS
September 1982
Opinion of Ronald Reagan*
Approve
Disapprove
Congressional Voting Intentions:
Republican
64
11
Democrat
24
78
Undecided/Don't Know
12
11
100
100
May 1990
Opinion of George Bush
Approve
Disapprove
Congressional Voting Intentions:
Republican
45
9
Democrat
31
63
Undecided/Don't know
24
28
100
100
September 1994
Opinion of Bill Clinton
Approve
Disapprove
Congressional Voting Intentions:
Republican
21
73
Democrat
73
20
Undecided/Don't know
6
7
100
100
*
Based on Newsweek, Sept. 1982
A demographic analysis of congressional voting intentions and reported 1992 vote shows the
GOP gains to be most pronounced in the following groups:
*
Middle to Upper Middle Income Voters. Currently, 62% of those in the
$50,000-$74,999 income ranges plan to vote Republican in 1994; only
49% of them reported voting for the GOP in 1992 (+13). Those in the
$30,000-$49,999 income range have also become more likely to vote GOP
this time (+10).
*
Hispanics. A group that will be key to Republican chances of winning
gubernatorial races in Texas and Florida is now more likely to support
GOP House candidates (+9).
*
Former Bush and Perot Voters. While the congressional preferences of
'92 Clinton voters have not shifted significantly, both Bush voters and
Perot voters are more likely to vote Republican for Congress (+10 and +9,
respectively).
94
CONGRESSIONAL VOTE PREFERENCE
September
1992*
1994**
Other/
Other/
Repub.
Democ.
Undesignated
Repub.
Democ.
Undecided
Total
43
45
12 = 100
48
46
6 = 100
Sex
Male
47
44
9 = 100
50
43
7 = 100
Female
40
47
13 = 100
46
48
6 = 100
Race
White
47
41
12 = 100
52
41
7 = 100
Black
10
86
= 100
12
85
3 = 100
Hispanic
28
66
6 = 100
37
52
11 = 100
Age
18-29
48
41
11 = 100
53
43
= 100
30-49
42
46
12 = 100
48
46
6=100
50-64
43
46
11 = 100
50
44
6 = 100
65 +
42
45
13 = 100
42
50
8 = 100
Education
College Graduate
49
41
10 = 100
54
40
6 = 100
Some College
46
41
13 = 100
52
44
= 100
High School Grad.
42
46
12 = 100
46
47
7 = 100
<H.S. Grad.
35
51
14 = 100
39
53
8 = 100
Income
$75,000- +
55
37
8 = 100
51
44
5 = 100
$50,000-74,999
49
42
9 = 100
62
35
3 = 100
$30,000-49,999
43
45
12 = 100
53
42
5 = 100
$20,000-29,999
42
46
12 = 100
44
49
7 = 100
<$20,000 <
34
55
11 = 100
36
55
9 = 100
Marital Status
Married
46
42
12 = 100
52
42
6 = 100
Single
41
49
10 = 100
43
53
= 100
Divorced/Separated
38
50
12 = 100
42
50
8 = 100
Widowed
33
55
12 = 100
41
53
6 = 100
Parent
44
46
10 = 100
50
45
5 = 100
Union Household
Yes
33
56
11 = 100
36
56
8=100
No
45
43
12 = 100
51
43
6 = 100
Religion/Race
White Protestant
52
35
13 = 100
57
36
7 = 100
Black Protestant
9
86
5 = 100
10
86
= 100
Catholic
42
46
12 = 100
48
46
6 = 100
Jewish
19
74
7 = 100
18
70
12 = 100
95
1992*
September 1994**
Other/
Other/
Repub.
Democ. Undesignated
Repub.
Democ.
Undecided
Region
East
44
45
11 = 100
52
42
6 = 100
Midwest
45
43
12 = 100
47
46
7 = 100
South
41
49
10 = 100
47
47
6 = 100
West
43
43
14 = 100
48
46
6 = 100
Community Size
Large City
37
53
10 = 100
40
55
5 = 100
Suburb
49
41
10 = 100
54
42
4 = 100
Small City/Town
43
46
11 = 100
45
47
8 = 100
Rural Area
43
43
14 = 100
54
40
6 = 100
Presidential Vote
Clinton
16
75
9 = 100
16
80
4 = 100
Bush
74
16
10 = 100
84
12
4 = 100
Perot
45
38
17 = 100
54
32
14 = 100
(Based on Q's 9/10 & 55)
*
Based on those who reported having voted for a House candidate in 1992
Based on registered voters
Analysis of voting intentions and past vote by typology groups reveals significant gains for
the Republicans among all three Republican-oriented groups, Enterprisers (+7), Moralists (+9) and
Libertarians (+10). The GOP's prospects for the fall congressional elections are further enhanced
by growing Republican support among the most important swing voter group in the electorate --
the New Economy Independents (+9) -- as well as the Embittered, a group that can help
Republican chances in urban districts.
Among the four Democratic-oriented groups, there has been an increase in support for
Democratic House candidates. With the exception of the Partisan Poor (+11), however, who
seem much more loyal to their House candidates than to Clinton, these increases are not of the
same magnitude as the growing party loyalty on the Republican side. Given the lack of
enthusiasm in the ranks of the Democratic party, getting a high turnout of supporters this year
is likely to be a big problem for the Democrats.
96
CONGRESSIONAL VOTE PREFERENCE BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
September
1992*
1994**
Other/
Other/
Repub.
Democ.
Undesignated
Repub.
Democ.
Undecided
Total
43
45
12 = 100
48
46
6 = 100
Enterprisers
82
11
7 = 100
89
7
4 = 100
Moralists
74
15
11 = 100
83
14
3 = 100
Libertarians
65
26
9 = 100
75
21
4 = 100
New Economy
Independents
35
48
17 = 100
44
44
12 = 100
Embittered
30
56
14 = 100
36
56
8 = 100
Seculars
17
74
9 = 100
14
80
6 = 100
New Democrats
16
70
14 = 100
18
75
7 = 100
New Dealers
14
77
9 = 100
13
81
6 = 100
Partisan Poor
12
80
8 = 100
7
91
2 = 100
(Based on Q.9 and 10)
*
Based on those who report having voted for a House candidate in 1992
** Based on registered voters
97
Attitudes Toward National Political Figures
When Bill Clinton is evaluated in terms of overall favorability, as opposed to approval of the
job he is doing, he emerges slightly better, although he appears to trail his predecessors on this
measure of as he does on others of public opinion.
In our most recent survey, 58% of the public say their opinion of Clinton is favorable; 41%
hold an unfavorable opinion. Among the 58% who express a favorable opinion, only 15%
characterize that opinion as "very favorable." A far larger proportion (43%) say their opinion is
"mostly favorable." To put Bill Clinton's numbers into perspective, George Bush's favorability
ratings began to fall in early 1992 but the percentage of the public who viewed him "very"
favorably remained at 20% or higher -- a level of approval Clinton has yet to attain.
Hillary And Bill
Hillary Rodham Clinton's favorability ratings are nearly identical to her husband's: 58% of
Americans have a favorable opinion of the First Lady, 40% have an unfavorable opinion.
Hillary's support, like the President's, comes mostly from Democratic-oriented groups. Strong
majorities of Republican-oriented groups --Enterprisers, Moralists and Libertarians -- express
negative views about the First Lady. However, in Hillary Clinton's case, the intensity of opinion
is not nearly as strong as it is against her husband.
Public sentiment toward other political figures has undergone significant change in recent
years. In general, those public figures on the outside of the political system now, including former
leaders, have gained in stature. On the other hand, insiders and prominent partisan figures of
today are viewed less favorably by the public. This is not surprising in light of the current anti-
politics, anti-government mood which has taken hold across America.
Past Presidents Up
Specifically, former Presidents Carter and Reagan are both viewed favorably today by large
majorities of the public. Carter, a symbol of Democratic ineffectiveness for Republican
candidates in the 1980s, has clearly rehabilitated his image in recent years. Today 73% of the
public holds a favorable opinion of the former President. Ronald Reagan's favorability ratings
have improved markedly since he left office in 1988. Even Dan Quayle has shown some
improvement in terms of public opinion since he and George Bush lost the 1992 election. In June,
1992, 33% of the public had a favorable opinion of Quayle; today nearly half (49%) feel
favorably toward the former Vice President.
Jesse Jackson has also gained some stature in recent years. More people express favorable
opinions about Jackson today (58%) than did so in 1988, when he was actively pursuing the
presidency (46%). Jackson may have become more attractive and less racially divisive because
he has altered his message to include themes of morality and personal responsibility.
Public attitudes toward Ross Perot have shifted some in the two years since he burst on the
political scene -- though not in the direction of increased favorability. Perot has maintained a
base of around 50% of the public who view him favorably. In June of 1992, in the midst of the
presidential campaign, 53% of Americans held a favorable opinion of Perot. Today, 51% say
their opinion of Perot is favorable. However, the percentage of the public who view Perot
98
unfavorably has increased dramatically in the last two years. Apparently those who didn't know
enough about Perot to rate him in 1992 have since developed an unfavorable opinion of him.
In June, 1992, 26% of Americans had an unfavorable opinion of Perot, 21% had either never
heard of him or said they couldn't rate him. Today 45% view Perot unfavorably, and only 4%
give him no rating at all.
Current Politicians Down
Attitudes toward two high profile politicians from opposing parties illustrate the growing
antipathy on the part of the public toward the current political leadership. Bob Dole, the Senate
GOP leader and a likely candidate for President in 1996, has not improved his public image over
the last seven years. In 1987, 60% of the public viewed Dole favorably, and 14% viewed him
unfavorably. In 1994, Dole is rated favorably by 59% of the public, while some 28% give him
an unfavorable rating. Favorable opinions toward Ted Kennedy, a prominent Democratic senator
and well-known champion of liberal causes, have fallen significantly since 1987. In May, 1987,
64% of the public expressed a favorable view of Kennedy; today only 45% view the Senator
favorably. Half of the public holds an unfavorable view of Kennedy today, which helps explain
why he faces his toughest reelection battle ever in November.
Evaluating attitudes toward these various public figures by typology groups reveals sharp
divisions among the major parties. In order to get a clear reading of favorability, we looked at
the favorable-to-unfavorable ratio, based only on those in the public who were familiar enough
with an individual -- i.e., they recognized the name -- to give him or her a rating.
Powell Liked By All
Overall, Colin Powell, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan receive the public's most favorable
ratings. Powell, one of the few "non-pols" included in the group, receives high favorability
ratings across the board. His favorable/unfavorable ratio for each typology group is .85 or higher,
meaning that 85% or more of each group who recognized Powell gave him a favorable rating.
No other figure receives such consistent ratings across typology groups. For Jimmy Carter and
Al Gore, high ratings among Democratic groups are tempered by lower ratings among Republican
groups. The opposite pattern holds true for Ronald Reagan.
Schisms within the two major parties become quite pronounced when attitudes toward some
of their prominent leaders are examined. On the Republican side, there seems to be some
consensus on Jack Kemp, Bob Dole, and Ronald Reagan. All three are viewed favorability by
high percentages of the Enterprisers, Moralists and Libertarians, although the Libertarians -- who
are more skeptical of political leaders overall -- don't give Reagan and Dole quite the ringing
endorsement they receive from the other two right-leaning groups.
But with regard to several other public figures most often associated with the GOP, the
Republican groups appear to be sharply divided. Clarence Thomas, a conservative and a Bush
nominee to the Supreme Court, is rated favorably by 88% of Enterprisers; fewer Moralists and
Libertarians give him a similar rating (71% by each group). Newt Gingrich GOP leader in the
House and a staunch partisan -- is also a favorite of the Enterprisers: 76% of Enterprisers familiar
99
with Gingrich's name rated him favorably.3 Moralists also give Gingrich high favorable ratings.
However, Libertarians appear to find him somewhat less appealing: 64% rate him favorably.
Conservatives Divide GOP
The Republican party also appears divided over such well-known conservatives as Dan
Quayle, Oliver North, Jerry Falwell and Rush Limbaugh. In each case it is the Libertarians who
express the lowest levels of support. The Libertarians and the Enterprisers present an especially
sharp contrast on these popular GOP figures. Seventy-seven percent of Enterprisers feel
favorably toward Dan Quayle, compared to 51% of Libertarians. Only 40% of Libertarians are
favorably inclined toward Senate-hopeful Oliver North, while 76% of Enterprisers rate him
favorably. Rush Limbaugh, the hero of many Enterprisers, is rated favorably by only 37% of
Libertarians. And, finally, while Jerry Falwell is clearly nobody's favorite public figure, far more
Enterprisers and Moralists express favorable attitudes toward him (43%) than can be said of
Libertarians (12%). The culturally conservative messages of these popular GOP figures may be
contributing to the alienation of the traditionally-Republican Libertarians.
Not only do Republicans disagree over who they like, they disagree over who they dislike.
Enterprisers express much more negative attitudes toward the liberal figures included in our list
than do the other Republican groups. Enterprisers are the least likely group to give favorable
ratings to Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, Jesse Jackson, Ben Chavis, Ted Kennedy and Lani Guinier.
The Libertarians are also the least likely to rate Ross Perot favorably, in spite of the fact that
nearly a third of them voted for him in 1992. Perot's strongest base of support among
Republicans seems to be coming from the Moralists, 59% of whom give him a favorable rating.
Democratic Divisions
On the Democratic side we see different heros and villains, but similar schisms between the
party groups. The Democrats are mostly in agreement in their attitudes toward Jimmy Carter,
Al Gore, and Bill and Hillary Clinton. These well-known Democratic figures receive favorable
ratings from large majorities of Seculars, New Democrats, New Dealers, and the Partisan Poor.
The New Dealers, however, are less favorably inclined toward the Clintons than are most other
Democrats.
Seculars and New Democrats, though both in the Democratic camp, show sharply divided
opinions toward public figures in and out of their own party. Only 40% of Seculars rate Ronald
Reagan favorably, while 68% of New Democrats do so. Similarly 26% of Seculars rate Dan
Quayle favorably, compared to 52% of New Democrats. Even fewer Seculars have a favorable
opinion of Oliver North. Fifteen percent rate North favorably compared to nearly 50% of New
Democrats. Attitudes toward Rush Limbaugh and Jerry Falwell follow a similar pattern. In
short, New Democrats are much more favorably inclined toward most well-known Republican
figures than are Seculars -- the other key, young Democratic group in the electorate.
3
It is important to keep in mind, however, that these high ratings are based on only 52% of the
Enterpriser group who recognized his name.
100
New Dealers Different
When it comes to attitudes toward prominent Democrats, the New Dealers stand out among
the crowd. They are less favorably inclined toward black leaders in their own party. Fifty-four
percent express favorable opinions toward Jesse Jackson, while among the other three Democratic
groups, 75% or higher view Jackson favorably. New Dealers are also less likely to rate Ben
Chavis and Lani Guinier favorably than are Seculars, New Democrats and the Partisan Poor.
Democrats are also split in their attitudes toward Ross Perot. A majority of New Democrats
(53%) give Perot a favorable rating, 46% of the Partisan Poor rate him favorably, and among
New Dealers and Seculars he is rated favorably by 26% and 23%, respectively.
The Independent groups actually show more cohesion with regard to their attitudes toward
these public figures than do those with more well-defined party attachments. Both New Economy
Independents and the Embittered express favorable opinions toward Colin Powell and Jimmy
Carter. They don't like Rush Limbaugh, and they're not crazy about Ted Kennedy. Neither
group rates the Clintons as among their favorite public figures, though they are not any more
negative about Bill or Hillary Clinton than is the public as a whole.
Outsiders Have Appeal
The types of figures that most appeal to the New Economy Independents are non-politicians
or self-proclaimed outsiders. This group shows higher than average favorability ratings for Ross
Perot, Jesse Jackson, and Ann Richards (one of the few women on the list).
The Embittered are more favorably inclined toward certain conservative figures than the New
Economy Independents, though they are clearly not inclined toward the current Republican party
leadership. The Embittered are more likely to rate Dan Quayle, Oliver North and Jerry Falwell
favorably -- though these are clearly not among their favorite public figures. They come down
more negatively than do the New Economy Independents, however, on Bob Dole and Newt
Gingrich, two high-profile members of the current GOP leadership.
101
EVALUATING PUBLIC FIGURES
(Favorable/Unfavorable Ratio*)
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
High Recognition
Colin Powell
.90
.97
.94
**
.89
.88
.87
.87
.86
.87
.92
Jimmy Carter
.76
.52
.63
.67
.81
.79
.81
.88
.85
.81
.90
AI Gore
.72
.40
.61
.63
.77
.70
.72
.89
.88
.84
.88
Bob Dole
.68
.89
.85
.79
.64
.56
.67
.41
.61
.53
.59
Ronald Reagan
.66
.90
.88
.77
.59
.57
.77
.40
.68
.37
.47
Clarence Thomas
.65
.88
.71
.71
.60
.64
.67
.37
.64
.57
.64
Jesse Jackson
.61
.32
.47
.41
.70
.64
.74
.77
.75
.54
.78
Hillary Rodham Clinton
.59
.23
.37
.40
.61
.60
.66
.85
.83
.73
.86
Bill Clinton
.58
.20
.36
.42
.58
.58
.65
.84
.84
.78
.87
Ross Perot
.53
.46
.59
.50
.61
.53
.69
.37
.53
.44
.45
Oliver North
.52
.76
.71
.40
.44
.54
.51
.15
.48
.46
.46
Dan Quayle
.51
.77
.69
.51
.41
.47
.43
.26
.52
.46
.48
Ted Kennedy
.47
.16
.30
.24
.47
.42
.57
.59
.71
.71
.71
Rush Limbaugh
.43
.78
.63
.47
.37
.37
.44
.11
.24
.29
.16
Jerry Falwell
.29
.43
.43
**
.19
.26
.42
.05
.30
.23
.25
Low Recognition
Jack Kemp
.77
.90
.79
.73
.76
.68
.80
Ann Richards
.69
.39
.53
.76
.87
.78
Patrick Moynihan
.66
.59
.68
.60
.80
.77
Benjamin Chavis
.64
.31
.60
.66
**
**
**
Newt Gingrich
.55
.76
.71
**
**
**
**
**
Lani Guinier
.54
.24
.41
**
.59
**
.83
**
Louis Farrakhan
.21
.07
.13
.09
.22
.37
.39
.13
.36
.27
.35
(Based on Q.23)
*
Based on percentage favorable among those able to rate the individual
**
Ratio is not reported where there are less than 75 cases
102
PUBLIC EVALUATIONS
Never
Favorable/
Heard
Unfavorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
Of/DK
Ratio
Bill Clinton
58
41
1
.58
Former Presidents
Jimmy Carter
73
24
3
.76
Ronald Reagan
65
34
1
.66
National Political Figures
High Recognition:
Colin Powell
74
8
18
.90
AI Gore
66
26
8
.72
Bob Dole
59
28
13
.68
Clarence Thomas
50
28
22
.65
Jesse Jackson
58
37
5
.61
Hillary Rodham Clinton
58
40
2
.59
Ross Perot
52
45
3
.53
Oliver North
47
43
10
.52
Dan Quayle
49
46
5
.51
Ted Kennedy
45
50
5
.47
Rush Limbaugh
35
47
18
.43
Jerry Falwell
22
54
24
.29
Low Recognition:
Jack Kemp
41
12
47
.77
Ann Richards
31
14
55
.69
Patrick Moynihan
33
17
50
.66
Benjamin Chavis
11
6
83
.64
Newt Gingrich
14
12
74
.55
Lani Guinier
12
10
78
.54
Louis Farrakhan
10
38
52
.21
Institutions
The Military
87
10
3
.90
The Supreme Court
80
16
4
.84
The United Nations
76
20
4
.80
The Republican Party
63
33
4
.66
The Democratic Party
62
35
3
.64
The Congress
53
43
4
.55
Media
Daily Newspaper
79
18
3
.81
Network TV News
68
29
3
.70
MTV
36
46
18
.43
Movements
The Women's Movement
68
27
5
.71
The Animal Rights
Movement
65
30
5
.69
The Feminist Movement
56
37
7
.60
Evangelical Christians
44
31
25
.58
The Gay Rights
Movement
33
61
6
.35
103
Never
Favorable/
Heard
Unfavorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
Of/DK
Ratio
Organizations
Business Corporations
70
24
6
.74
Wall Street Investors
59
23
18
.72
Labor Unions
58
37
5
.61
The National Rifle
Association
54
38
8
.59
Insurance Companies
40
58
2
.40
Tobacco Companies
24
73
3
.24
(Based on Q.23 & 24)
*
Based on the percentage favorable among those able to rate the individual, institution, etc.
104
INSTITUTIONS
Public attitudes toward major institutions, movements and organizations show important
shifts in recent years. Negative views of the federal government generally are reflected in the
negative opinions of Congress and, to a lesser degree, of the governing Democratic party as well.
In May, 1987, 74% of the public held a favorable opinion of Congress; today a bare majority of
53% do.
While the Democratic party has maintained a certain base of support over the last year or two,
the percentage of the public which see the Republican party favorably has increased dramatically.
In July, 1992, as George Bush's popularity plummeted and a Clinton victory seemed inevitable,
46% held a favorable view of the Republican party. Since that low point, however, the public's
estimation of the GOP has increased steadily - to 54% in May, 1993, and 63% today. The
Republican party may be benefitting from the public's anger toward the current political
establishment.
The military, enjoying increasingly favorable ratings since the end of the Vietnam war,
received a huge boost from the Gulf War: from 73% in May, 1990, to 87% today. The increase
is probably tied not only to the U.S. military's strong performance in that war but also to the
higher public morale more generally which resulted from that performance.
Business Image Improves
Another important change in public attitudes is the improved ratings of business corporations,
in spite of the recession and widespread corporate down-sizing. Apparently the public doesn't
hold business corporations responsible for the economic woes the country has suffered in recent
years. In January, 1988, 59% of the public expressed a favorable opinion toward business
corporations; today seven out of ten Americans hold a favorable view.
Other institutions, organizations and social movements fare considerably worse with the
public, reflecting the deep divisions within the major political parties toward them. These
divisions, in turn, are indicative of the difficulties of forming strong governing coalitions within
the parties.
Republican divisions on Congress -- nobody's favorite institution -- are symptomatic of these
divisions. Enterprisers and Libertarians express the lowest approval ratings of Congress among
all the groups, while Moralists are much more supportive of Congress as an institution (50%
favorable). Enterprisers and Libertarians agree on Congress, but they disagree on several social
movements, reflecting ideological differences. Libertarians, for example, are very favorable
toward women's movement (73%), compared to the Enterprisers (42%), and also much more
supportive of the gay rights movement than are Enterprisers (41% favorable versus 13%).
Evangelical Christians are also divisive in the Republican party. Enterprisers are most
favorable to Evangelicals, with Moralists not far behind (76% and 71% favorable, respectively).
This is not surprising since most Evangelicals are found in these two groups. In sharp contrast,
only one-in-four Libertarians expresses a favorable view of Evangelicals.
Libertarians may turn out to be the break-away group in the Republican party. They are
much less drawn to messages and movements which could be construed as closely aligned with
the far right wing of the party, except in attitudes toward big business and Wall Street investors.
105
In their attitudes toward institutions, what the Libertarians are to the Republican party, the
Seculars are to the Democrats. They are significantly less favorable toward the military, the
Congress, Evangelical Christians, the National Rifle Association, insurance companies, and the
network TV news than other Democratic-oriented groups. In addition, the Seculars express the
most favorable views toward the women's movement and the gay rights movement of all groups
in the typology.
Centrists And Wall Street
New Democrats, the centrist wing of the party, are more likely to view business and Wall
Street favorably than are other Democratic groups, and some 57% of them hold a favorable
opinion of the Republican party.
Among Independents, the New Economy group expresses more favorable views toward all
institutions, across the board, than does the Embittered. They feel more favorably also toward
three of the four movements in the survey -- women's, animal rights, and gay rights. They are
less favorable toward Evangelicals than the Embittered, however.
The two Independent groups have strikingly similar views toward most of the six
organizations we tested. They deviate from the overall public by being less favorable toward
business and toward insurance companies. They are more favorably disposed toward the
Democratic party than toward the Republicans, though without much enthusiasm.
106
PUBLIC EVALUATIONS BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
(Favorable/Unfavorable Ratio*)
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
Institutions
The Military
.90
.97
.95
.91
.84
.79
.86
.78
.94
.97
.97
The Supreme Court
.84
.77
.81
.89
.83
.78
.81
.88
.93
.84
.89
The United Nations
.80
.64
.78
.73
.78
.69
.87
.87
.90
.81
.91
The Republican Party
.66
.92
.91
.83
.61
.55
.66
.37
.57
.44
.45
The Democratic Party
.64
.19
.40
.46
.67
.65
.69
.84
.91
.91
.97
The Congress
.55
.36
.50
.39
.47
.45
.65
.61
.83
.63
.71
Movements
The Women's Movement
.71
.42
.57
.73
.82
.58
.85
.92
.81
.64
.87
The Animal Rights
Movement
.69
.37
.64
.63
.79
.70
.76
.77
.77
.70
.74
Evangelical Christians
.58
.76
.71
**
.53
.69
.57
.17
.62
.62
.58
The Gay Rights
Movement
.35
.13
.14
.41
.52
.29
.40
.81
.33
.31
.27
Organizations
Business Corporations
.74
.93
.82
.91
.62
.65
.72
.64
.84
.71
.64
Wall Street Investors
.72
.90
.74
.81
.70
.55
.57
.69
.83
.67
.67
Labor Unions
.61
.31
.54
.46
.64
.64
.72
.63
.77
.73
.65
The National Rifle
Association
.59
.72
.74
.54
.55
.59
.59
.34
.54
.67
.50
Insurance Companies
.40
.58
.42
.43
.32
.29
.40
.32
.47
.42
.47
Tobacco Companies
.25
.29
.23
.26
.24
.24
.30
.10
.22
.33
.31
(Based on Q.24)
*
Based on percentage favorable among those able to rate the institution, movement, or organization
**
Ratio is not reported where there are less than 75 cases
107
Views On The Media
We measured public attitudes toward the media in various ways. First we looked at media
usage to see which news and entertainment outlets Americans are reading, watching and hearing.
We also asked respondents to rate certain "media institutions" in term of favorability. Finally,
we sought a more general assessment of the role the media plays, namely whether the news media
helps society solve its problems or gets in the way.
What emerges is a picture of an American public which uses more media outlets more
frequently than at any time in recent history, expresses largely favorable views of its two major
media institutions (the network news and daily newspapers), and yet is highly critical of the role
the news media plays in solving the nation's problems.
News Readership Still Up
In spite of speculation over the demise of the newspaper industry, readership remains high
and has even rebounded somewhat from 1990 levels. Today 74% of the public read a newspaper
regularly.
More than eight out of ten Americans watch TV news regularly. This figure is somewhat
lower than the percentage who reported watching TV news during a major crisis or national event
-- specifically, the Persian Gulf War and the most recent presidential election -- but it is
nonetheless very high and shows no substantial drop-off in recent years.
Some groups rely on TV news more than others: New Dealers, the Partisan Poor, and
Enterprisers are the most likely to report regular viewing. Bystanders and Seculars are the least
likely. In fact, Seculars are the only group more likely to be regular newspaper readers than TV
news viewers (81% versus 76%, respectively).
A bare majority (52%) of the public regularly listens to news on the radio. Enterprisers and
Libertarians are more likely to be news radio listeners, and not surprisingly, they're also among
the most likely to say they listen to call-in radio shows.
TV Magazines Grow Like Topsy
TV news magazine shows, like 60 Minutes and 20/20, which have proliferated in recent
years, are extremely popular. Eighty-six percent of Americans say they watch these shows
sometimes or regularly. Tabloid TV shows, such as Hard Copy and A Current Affair, have also
become popular. Today 64% of the public tunes into these shows at least occasionally. In
comparison to the more mainstream TV newsmagazines, these shows have a more limited appeal.
Less than half of Enterprisers, Libertarians and Seculars say they watch these types of shows,
although among all other groups the proportion is well above 60%.
Many Americans are tuning into cable news channels these days. Sixty-nine percent report
watching CNN at least sometimes, and over a third say they watch C-SPAN -- the all-Congress
network.
Among the various radio options, nearly equal percentages of the public report listening to
National Public Radio and Rush Limbaugh's radio show. Not surprisingly, however, the two
have unequal appeal across typology groups. Enterprisers and Moralists are among the most
likely to be Rush listeners. Seculars and Libertarians are more likely to listen to NPR.
108
Public attitudes toward the media are complex. Although more people watch TV news
programs than read newspapers, more of them hold a favorable opinion of their daily newspaper
than of network TV news. Enterprisers are especially hostile toward the network news; only 50%
have a favorable view, which is fully 20% points below the national average. Looking much
more favorably on network news are Democrat-oriented groups, particularly the Partisan Poor and
New Democrats (83% and 79% favorable, respectively).
MTV Appeal Limited
Americans express luke warm opinions toward MTV. Less than half of the public has a
favorable view of this all-music channel, and among culturally conservative Enterprisers and
Moralists less than a third express a positive view. MTV is most highly regarded by Bystanders,
the youngest group in the electorate, and the Partisan Poor, the group with the largest
concentration of minorities.
The public's negative attitudes toward the news media come into sharper focus when they are
asked whether the media helps or hinders society in solving its problems. Seventy-one percent
of Americans said the news media gets in the way of solutions, while 25% said it helps.
The most strongly negative views in this respect come from the Embittered, Moralists and
New Economy Independents, in that order. Least criticism is heard from the Seculars, although
even with this group, 57% said the media is more a part of the problem than the solution.
109
MEDIA USAGE BY TYPOLOGY GROUP
(Percent Who Regularly Or Sometimes Read, Listen or Watch)
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
Daily Newspaper
74
78
75
81
74
74
49
81
72
78
75
TV News Programs
81
86
82
83
80
79
67
76
81
88
87
News on the Radio
52
64
56
57
50
47
39
55
50
47
44
News Magazines
(Time, US News...
59
64
59
64
65
49
46
67
58
56
58
Business Magazines
(Fortune, Forbes...)
26
38
26
41
24
27
9
22
24
24
25
National Enquirer,
The Sun, The Star
18
10
14
7
17
21
26
10
26
23
33
TV News Magazines
(60 Minutes, 20/20...)
86
81
88
81
87
82
81
82
93
91
86
MacNeil Lehrer
30
44
30
41
29
27
4
47
28
21
26
TV Shows Like
A Current Affair, Hard
Copy, Inside Edition
64
49
67
45
64
69
70
47
72
76
76
Cable News Network
69
65
70
84
69
66
58
73
73
72
69
C-SPAN
35
40
33
49
34
33
25
46
33
34
36
MTV
25
12
20
29
24
21
31
29
37
24
32
Programs on NPR
(Morning Edition or
All Things Considered)
27
23
27
32
26
27
21
38
30
22
31
Rush Limbaugh's
Radio Show
26
56
39
27
22
19
16
11
18
20
11
Howard Stern's
Radio Show
7
7
5
10
7
8
9
9
7
7
4
"Imus in the Morning"
Radio Show
8
9
8
7
5
6
6
9
10
7
10
Call-In Radio Shows
which focus on
current issues, public
affairs, politics
46
63
46
53
46
47
35
39
42
41
45
(Based on Q.30-35)
110
PUBLIC EVALUATIONS OF THE MEDIA
(Favorable/Unfavorable Ratio*)
Enter-
Moral-
Liber-
New Econ.
Embit-
New
New
Partisan
Total
prisers
ists
tarians
Indeps.
tered
Bystanders
Seculars
Dems.
Dealers
Poor
Media
Daily Newspaper
.81
.75
.78
.77
.80
.83
.90
.75
.89
.84
.88
Network TV News
.70
.50
.70
.73
.69
.67
.76
.66
.79
.75
.83
MTV
.43
.30
.30
.51
.48
.33
.57
.55
.45
.48
.57
(Based on Q.24)
*
Based on percentage favorable among those able to rate
111
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
112
ABOUT THIS SURVEY
The Times Mirror Political Typology Survey is a national telephone interview opinion survey
conducted among 3,800 adults, 18 years of age and older, living in the continental United States.
The survey includes an oversample of 197 black adults. However, the results are weighted to
produce a final sample that is representative of the general population of adults in the continental
United States. The interviews were conducted from July 12 through July 27, 1994. For results
based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling
and other random effects is plus or minus 2 percentage points. 1500 respondents were also re-
interviewed from September 9-11, 1994. For results based on this re-interview sample, one can
say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus
or minus 3 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
113
SURVEY METHODOLOGY IN DETAIL
The sample for the survey consisted of a random digit dial telephone sample designed to be
representative of all telephone households in the continental United States and a separate random
digit dial race-targeted sample which was used for the black oversample.
The black oversample was designed to be representative of all telephone households, yet
efficient in locating households containing a black person. These competing goals are met by
selecting random telephone numbers from exchanges such that a disproportionately large sample
of telephone numbers is selected from telephone exchanges serving areas with a high density of
blacks and a disproportionately small sample is selected from other (lower black density)
telephone exchanges. Thus, the incidence of black households is increased over their incidence
in a sample design where the selection probabilities are proportionate.
The resulting sample is unbiased because all telephone households have an opportunity of
being included in the sample, regardless of the racial makeup of their exchanges and regardless
of whether their telephone numbers are listed or unlisted (the actual telephone numbers are
randomly generated). The sample becomes representative after weights are applied to eliminate
the disproportionality in selection probabilities related to the black density of the area served by
the telephone exchange.
The race-targeted sample was drawn by first ranking all telephone exchanges according to the
percentage of blacks in the area served by the exchange. The information on the racial makeup
of the area is taken from Census information at the Census tract level. The tract information is
linked to telephone exchange on the basis of the rough geographic boundaries of the exchange.
With black density estimated for each telephone exchange, sample can be drawn with selection
probabilities related to the density of blacks in the exchange, i.e., the higher the density of blacks
in the exchange, the greater the probability of selecting a number from that exchange.
Weighting to eliminate the selection disproportionalities is based on information collected in
the course of screening respondents for qualification. An estimate of the qualification incidence
of telephone households is computed separately for each of the sampling strata and is used,
together with information about the number of telephone households in each stratum, to re-
proportionalize the sample of completed interviews. This weighting was supplemented by
demographic weighting which is discussed below.
The sample was released for interviewing in replicates for each of the four black density strata
and for the general population sample. Using replicates to control the release of sample to the
field ensures that the complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample and ensures an
appropriate number of completed interviews from each strata. Again, this works to increase the
representativeness of the final sample.
At least six attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number.
The calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chances of
making a contact with a respondent. In each contacted household, interviewers asked to speak
with the "youngest male 18 or older who is at home". If there is no eligible man at home,
114
interviewers asked to speak with "the oldest woman 18 or older who lives in the household".
This systematic respondent selection technique has been shown empirically to produce samples
that closely mirror the population in terms of age and gender.
In addition to the black density stratum weighting necessary to compensate for the
disproportionate sample selection, demographic weighting was used to bring the characteristics
of the total sample (the general population sample and the black oversample combined) into
alignment with the demographic characteristics of the population of all adults 18 and older.
The demographic weighting parameters are derived from a special analysis of the most
recently available Census Bureau Annual Demographic File (from the March 1993 Current
Population Survey). This analysis produced population parameters for the demographic
characteristics of households with adults 18 or older, which are then compared with the sample
characteristics to construct sample weights. The analysis only included households in the
continental U.S. where there is a telephone in the household.
The total sample was weighted to the CPS distributions of sex, age, education, race, and
region. Additionally, the sample of blacks (combining the blacks from the general population
sample and from the oversample) was weighted to the CPS distributions of sex, age, education
and region for black adults living in telephone households in the continental United States.
The weights were derived using an iterative technique that simultaneously balances the
distributions of all weighting parameters. After an optimum sample balancing solution was
reached, the weights were constrained to fall within the range of 1 to 7. This constraint is useful
to ensure that individual respondents do not exert an inordinate effect on the survey's overall
results.
115
METHODOLOGY FOR CREATING THE
1994 TYPOLOGY
The Times Mirror political typology is primarily constructed by classifying people according
to nine basic values and orientations and party affiliation.
In previous surveys conducted by Times Mirror over the past seven years, thirteen value scales
have been identified as centrally important to the configuration of voting and other political
behaviors. These include attitudes toward government, environmentalism, business, social
welfare, social policy issues, religion, racial relations, the military, the place of the United States
in world affairs and feelings of political alienation, individual alienation, financial pressure and
xenophobia. Over the years and many surveys, multiple survey questions have been developed
and tested to measure these thirteen value scales. In the current survey, two items were selected
to measure each of the thirteen values. These items had been previously identified as the most
valid and reliable items to measure each scale. The two items were added together to create each
of the thirteen scales.
Regression analyses were used to identify the most important of these thirteen scales in
predicting various political behaviors and attitudes. Separate multiple regressions were conducted
using the thirteen scales and party affiliation as the independent variables and the following
dependent variables:
Clinton approval
Dole approval
Perot approval
Attitude toward abortion
Attitude toward gays in the military
Attitude toward term limits
Attitude toward banning smoking
Attitude toward Korea
This set of regression analyses was examined to see which of the scales was most often a
significant predictor of the dependent variable (had a significant T statistic). On the basis of these
analyses, four of the thirteen scales were dropped from the cluster analyses: xenophobia, financial
pressure, individual alienation, and American exceptionalism. These scales were significant
predictors in only three or fewer of the regression analyses and were not strong predictors in any.
The typology was then created by using a statistical technique known as "cluster analysis".
This technique classifies people into the most homogeneous and meaningful statistical groups
possible based on the remaining nine value scales and party affiliation. Several different cluster
solutions were evaluated on the basis of the variance of the groups on the nine scales and party
affiliation, the distribution of the groups in terms of their size, the party affiliation distribution
across the groups, and the substantive description of the groups.
To evaluate the cluster solutions in terms of the variance, we looked at the average group
variance and compared it to the total variance for each of the nine scales and party affiliation.
This told us which solution had created groups with the least amount of within group variance
116
when compared to the variance of the total sample; in other words, which were the most
homogeneous groups.
We also evaluated the cluster solutions to see which solution had the most between group
variance by looking at the size of the variance of the means across groups for each of the nine
scales and party affiliation.
The cluster solutions were also evaluated on the basis of the size of the groups and the
substantive interpretation of the groups. On the basis of all of these analyses, one cluster solution
was chosen.
117
THE QUESTIONNAIRES
118
TIMES MIRROR CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS
NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE SURVEY
-- TOPLINE RESULTS --
N = 3,800 18+ nationwide (Main Sample, includes an oversample of 197 black adults)
1,009 18+ nationwide (Supplemental Sample)
Field period: 7/12-25/94 (Main Sample)
7/13-27/94 (Supplemental Sample)
NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, results are based on the Main Sample of 3,800 interviews.
1.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?
Early
Early
Mar
Jan
Jan
Dec
Oct
Sept
Sept
Aug
June
May
April
Feb
1994
1994
1994
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
45
Approve
45
51
48
48
44
49
43
39
39
45
49
56
46
Disapprove
42
35
35
36
42
35
43
46
43
37
29
25
9
DK/Refused
13
14
17
16
14
16
14
15
18
18
22
19
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.
Do you (approve/disapprove) very strongly, or not so strongly?
4Reagan
Carter
6/83
4/78
45
Approve
18
Very strongly
21
14
27
Not so strongly
26
34
46
Disapprove
17
Not so strongly
15
22
29
Very strongly
29
17
9
Don't know/Refused
9
13
100
100
100
4
Trends are from The Gallup Poll
119
Q.3 THROUGH Q.10: BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
3.
Suppose the 1996 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Bill Clinton, the
Democrat; Bob Dole, the Republican; and Ross Perot, an Independent. Who would you vote for?
4.
As of TODAY, do you LEAN most to Clinton, the Democrat; Dole, the Republican; or Perot, the
Independent?
RESULTS INCLUDE LEANERS
39
Clinton
36
Dole
20
Perot
5
Undecided/Other
100
Q'S 5/6 BASED ON HALF SAMPLE A (N=1440)
5.
Suppose there were only two major candidates for president and you had to choose between Bill Clinton, the
Democrat, and Bob Dole, the Republican. Who would you vote for?
6.
As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Clinton, the Democrat; or Dole, the Republican?
RESULTS INCLUDE LEANERS
46 Clinton
49
Dole
5
Undecided/Other
100
Q'S 7/8 BASED ON HALF SAMPLE B (N=1449)
7.
Suppose there were only two major candidates for president and the Republican Party nominated Colin
Powell. If you had to choose between Bill Clinton, the Democrat, and Colin Powell, the Republican, who
would you vote for?
8.
As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Clinton, the Democrat; or Powell, the Republican?
RESULTS INCLUDE LEANERS
41
Clinton
51
Powell
8
Undecided/other
100
120
ASK ALL:
9. If the 1994 elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's
candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?
10. As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat?
45 Republican
47
Democrat
8
Undecided/Other
100
11. Now I'd like your views on the state of the nation... All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way
things are going in this country today?
Early
Mar
Oct
Sept
June
Jan
Jan
Nov
May
Feb
Oct
May
Jan
1994
1993
1993
1993
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1988
1988
24
Satisfied
24
22
20
22
39
28
34
41
45
56
41
39
73
Dissatisfied
71
73
75
71
50
68
61
54
50
40
54
55
3
No Opinion
5
5
4
7
11
4
5
5
5
4
5
6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
12. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
June
Mar
Dec
Sept
June
April
Jan
May
Feb
April
1994
1994
1993
1993
1993
1993
1992
1990
1989
1987
Crime/Gangs/Justice
26 system
22
31
25
15
7
5
3
7
8
3
Health care
14
(cost/accessibility)
20
14
14
12
11
13
3
3
1
*
12
Unemployment/Lack of jobs
12
12
15
23
19
18
22
7
9
13
Morality/Ethics/
9
Family values
10
10
6
8
7
3
3
5
2
3
3
Drugs/Alcohol
6
10
8
5
5
4
4
37
23
6
Dissatisfaction with
4 government/Politics
5
5
2
5
5
3
2
2
1
0
Deficit/National debt/
5
Balanced budget
4
5
6
9
13
17
4
11
19
12
121
12. CONTINUED.
June Mar Dec Sept June April Jan May Feb April
1994
1994
1993
1993
1993
1993
1992
1990
1989
1987
3 Education
4
5
5
4
5
2
2
4
4
0
5
Economy (general)
4
4
6
9
17
18
43
5
4
7
2 Taxes
1
3
2
3
4
4
1
3
2
0
1
Racism
1
3
1
3
2
3
1
2
0
0
4 Homeless
2
3
5
2
5
2
6
8
10
*
3 Poverty
2
2
3
2
3
3
1
3
4
6
Inflation/Difference
2
between wages/Costs
*
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
Too much foreign aid/
2
Spend money at home
1
2
1
*
2
2
1
3
1
0
1
Environment/Pollution
1
2
1
1
*
2
1
8
2
0
2
Welfare abuse
4
2
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
1
AIDS
2
2
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Issues related to elderly
*
1
1
*
2
2
1
2
2
0
*
Other Social Issues
0
*
3
4
*
*
*
*
*
*
3
Other domestic
1
1
3
1
2
1
10
11
10
21
2
Other international
4
1
2
3
3
1
4
6
10
22
6
Other
2
2
*
2
4
8
1
5
9
1
3
Don't know/No answer
5
4
6
4
2
4
3
1
3
3
26
ECONOMIC (NET)
22
26
33
47
53
58
76
26
28
35
POVERTY/HOMELESS
7 (NET)
4
6
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
DEFENSE/INTER-
7
NATIONAL (NET)
4
2
*
4
*
*
*
*
*
*
(511)
(989)
(1479)
(2000)
(1507)
(1011)
(1220)
(3004)
(2048)
(4244)
122
13.
Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling the problem you just mentioned -- the
Republicans or the Democrats?
Mar
June
Jan
May
May
Jan
May
1994
1993
1992⁵
1990
1988
1988
1987
36
Republicans
29
28
32
29
26
30
28
33
Democrats
29
35
41
30
38
35
38
16
No difference (VOL)
26
23
12
31
22
24
24
15
Don't know
16
14
15
10
14
11
10
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
14.
In the future, which ONE of the following items should President Clinton give the highest priority
to (READ LIST)
Mar
Jan
Dec
1994
1994
1993
23
Improving the job situation
26
26
28
15
Reforming health care
16
14
14
24
Reducing crime
23
22
20
15
Reforming the welfare system, OR
12
15
11
21
Reducing the budget deficit?
20
20
22
2
Don't know/Refused
3
3
5
100
100
100
100
5 Based on registered voters.
123
15.
I'd like you to rate the way Bill Clinton is handling his job in some specific areas. (First,) do you approve
or disapprove of the way Clinton is handling... (READ AND ROTATE)
Don't
Approve
Disapprove
Know
a. Economic conditions in this country
38
56
6= 100
b. Foreign policy
38
53
9 = 100
c. Race relations
57
27
16 = 100
ITEMS d-f BASED ON HALF SAMPLE A (N = 1899)
d. The federal budget deficit
31
58
11 = 100
e. Crime
35
55
10 = 100
f. The jobs situation
40
52
8 = 100
ITEMS g-i BASED ON HALF SAMPLE B (N = 1901)
g. Relations with Russia
62
22
16 = 100
h. Health care policy
39
54
7 = 100
i. Welfare reform
38
50
12 = 100
124
Q.16 BASED ON HALF SAMPLE A (N = 1899)
16. As I read some pairs of opposite phrases, tell me which ONE best reflects your impressions of Bill Clinton
so far. (First,) does Bill Clinton impress you as... (READ AND ROTATE)
Dec
Aug
Jan
1993
1993
1993
a.
46
Trustworthy or-
56
56
63
49
Not trustworthy
35
37
29
2
(DO NOT READ) Neither particularly
3
2
3
3
(DO NOT READ) Don't know/Refused
6
5
5
100
100
100
100
b.
85
Warm and friendly or
87
87
90
11
Cold and aloof
6
8
7
2
(DO NOT READ) Neither particularly
3
3
1
2
(DO NOT READ) Don't know/Refused
4
2
2
100
100
100
100
c.
40
Able to get things done or
63
36
56
Not able to get things done
27
54
2
(DO NOT READ) Neither particularly
5
6
2
(DO NOT READ) Don't know/Refused
5
4
100
100
100
d.
57
Well informed or
69
63
79
38
Not well informed
22
30
14
1
(DO NOT READ) Neither particularly
3
2
2
4
(DO NOT READ) Don't know/Refused
6
5
5
100
100
100
100
e.
42
Well Organized or
59
47
53
Not well organized
32
46
2
(DO NOT READ) Neither particularly
3
2
3
(DO NOT READ) Don't know/Refused
6
5
100
100
100
f.
37
Liberal,
32
38
47
Middle of the road or
49
44
13
Conservative
12
11
1
(DO NOT READ) Neither particularly
2
2
2
(DO NOT READ) Don't know/Refused
5
5
100
100
100
g.
36
Keeps his promises or
41
32
56
Doesn't keep his promises
42
53
3
(DO NOT READ) Neither particularly
7
8
5
(DO NOT READ) Don't know/Refused
10
7
100
100
100
125
17.
Now I'd like to ask you about some things that have been in the news recently. Not everyone will have heard
about them all Can you tell me the name of the current vice president of the United States?
Feb
1994
65
Al Gore; Gore
70
35
Any other person/Don't Know/Refused
30
100
100
18.
Do you happen to know which political party has a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives?
Feb
Sept
June
May
1994
1992
1992
1992
60
Democratic Party
58
57
52
55
40
Republican Party/Don't know/Refused
42
43
48
45
100
100
100
100
100
19.
Can you tell me the name of the President of Russia?
Feb
1994
46
Boris Yeltsin; Yeltsin
47
54
Other/Don't know/Refused
53
100
100
126
20.
Of all the U.S. presidents who have been elected SINCE YOU FIRST STARTED FOLLOWING POLITICS,
which ONE do you think has done the BEST job?
22
Reagan
19
Kennedy/JFK
11
Bush
8
Nixon
8
Franklin Roosevelt/FDR
7
Carter
6
Clinton
6
Truman
4
Eisenhower/Ike
1
Ford
1
Johnson/LBJ
*
Other (SPECIFY)
3
None in particular/All about the same (VOLUNTEERED)
4
Don't know/Refused
100
21.
I'm going to read you some pairs of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a number
of things. As I read each pair, tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer
to your own views -- even if neither is exactly right. The first pair is... (READ AND ROTATE) (AFTER
CHOICE IS MADE, PROBE: Do you feel STRONGLY about that, or not?)
a.
66
Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient
54
Strongly
12
Not strongly
31
Government often does a better job than people give it credit for
17
Strongly
14
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
127
21.
CONTINUED
b.
41
Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest
24
Strongly
17
Not strongly
54
Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good
39
Strongly
15
Not strongly
5
Neither/Don't know
100
c.
53
Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in
return
37
Strongly
16
Not strongly
39
Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don't go far enough to help them live
decently
27
Strongly
12
Not strongly
8
Neither/Don't know
100
d.
48
The government should do more to help needy Americans, even if it means going deeper into debt
35
Strongly
13
Not strongly
47
The government today can't afford to do much more to help the needy
32
Strongly
15
Not strongly
5
Neither/Don't know
100
e.
72
The position of blacks in American society has improved in recent years
52
Strongly
20
Not strongly
25
There hasn't been much real progress for blacks in recent years
18
Strongly
7
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
128
21.
CONTINUED
f.
32
Racial discrimination is the main reason why many black people can't get ahead these days
20
Strongly
12
Not strongly
59
Blacks who can't get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition
43
Strongly
16
Not strongly
9
Neither/Don't know
100
g.
31
Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents
17
Strongly
14
Not strongly
63
Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care
49
Strongly
14
Not strongly
6
Neither/Don't know
100
h.
19
Other countries generally treat the United States about as fairly as we treat them
10
Strongly
9
Not strongly
78
Other countries often take unfair advantage of the United States
68
Strongly
10
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
i.
36
The best way to ensure peace is through military strength
28
Strongly
8
Not strongly
58
Good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace
46
Strongly
12
Not strongly
6
Neither/Don't know
100
129
21.
CONTINUED
j.
52
We should all be willing to fight for our country, whether it is right or wrong
43
Strongly
9
Not strongly
45
It's acceptable to refuse to fight in a war you believe is morally wrong
35
Strongly
10
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
k.
68
Most people who want to get ahead can make it if they're willing to work hard
59
Strongly
9
Not strongly
30
Hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people
22
Strongly
8
Not strongly
2
Neither/Don't know
100
1.
18
Success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside of our control
12
Strongly
6
Not strongly
79
Everyone has it in their own power to succeed.
67
Strongly
12
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
m.
76
Too much power is concentrated in the hands of a few large companies
59
Strongly
17
Not strongly
19
The largest companies do NOT have too much power
9
Strongly
10
Not strongly
5
Neither/Don't know
100
130
21.
CONTINUED
n.
52
Business corporations make too much profit
43
Strongly
9
Not strongly
43
Most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit
27
Strongly
16
Not strongly
5
Neither/Don't know
100
o.
71
Elected officials in Washington lose touch with the people pretty quickly
58
Strongly
13
Not strongly
25
Elected officials in Washington try hard to stay in touch with voters back home
14
Strongly
11
Not strongly
4
Neither/Don't know
100
p.
34
Most elected officials care what people like me think
18
Strongly
16
Not strongly
64
Most elected officials don't care what people like me think
51
Strongly
13
Not strongly
2
Neither/Don't know
100
131
Q.22 BASED ON SUPPLEMENTAL SAMPLE = 1009)
22.
Now I am going to read you a series of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a number
of things. For each statement, please tell me if you completely agree with it, mostly agree with it, mostly
disagree with it or completely disagree with it. The first one is... (READ ITEMS, IN ORDER. DO NOT
ROTATE)
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
a. People like me don't have any say
about what the government does
22
32
31
15
* = 100
May, 1993
15
37
31
16
1 = 100
June, 1992
14
36
32
17
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
22
28
28
21
1 = 100
May, 1990
19
38
31
11
1 = 100
Feb, 1989
22
40
29
8
1 = 100
May, 1988
16
39
33
11
1 = 100
May, 1987
14
38
34
12
2 = 100
b. Generally speaking, elected officials in
Washington lose touch with the
people pretty quickly
39
44
13
3
1 = 100
May, 1993
29
53
13
3
= 100
June, 1992
35
49
12
3
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
41
43
11
4
1 = 100
May, 1990
30
48
17
2
3 = 100
Feb, 1989
30
50
16
2
= 100
May, 1988
26
50
19
3
= 100
May, 1987
22
51
21
3
3 = 100
c. Most elected officials care what
people like me think
4
29
41
25
1 = 100
May, 1993
5
35
42
16
= 100
June, 1992
5
31
46
16
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
7
29
39
23
2 = 100
May, 1990
7
37
39
14
3 = 100
Feb, 1989
5
39
42
12
= 100
May, 1988
5
42
40
11
= 100
May, 1987
5
42
40
9
4 = 100
d. Voting gives people like me some say
about how government runs things
24
42
21
11
= 100
Nov, 1991
32
42
15
9
= 100
May, 1990
23
50
18
7
2 = 100
Feb, 1989
25
48
20
5
= 100
May, 1988
26
49
18
5
= 100
May, 1987
23
55
15
4
= 100
132
22. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
e. Success in life is pretty much determined
by forces outside our control
14
25
33
26
2 = 100
May, 1993
11
30
41
16
2 = 100
June, 1992
11
27
38
21
3 = 100
May, 1990
11
29
39
18
3 = 100
May, 1988
13
28
37
19
3 = 100
May, 1987
8
30
41
16
5 = 100
f. Hard work offers little guarantee of success
June, 1992
15
24
32
28
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
20
24
29
25
2 = 100
May, 1990
10
26
40
23
1 = 100
Feb, 1989
14
27
36
21
2 = 100
May, 1988
11
21
40
26
1 = 100
May, 1987
7
22
44
24
3 = 100
g. I admire people who get rich by working hard
51
37
8
3
1 = 100
June, 1992
47
42
7
3
1 = 100
h. The strength of this country today
is mostly based on the success of
American business
26
52
15
5
2 = 100
June, 1992
24
54
15
5
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
29
47
15
6
3 = 100
May, 1990
20
57
14
3
6 = 100
Feb, 1989
23
54
14
4
5 = 100
May, 1988
25
54
14
3
4 = 100
May, 1987
16
60
16
3
5 = 100
i. Government regulation of business
usually does more harm than good
27
36
28
5
4 = 100
June, 1992
19
42
28
5
6 = 100
May, 1990
16
42
29
4
9 = 100
May, 1988
17
40
31
4
8 = 100
May, 1987
12
43
30
4
11 = 100
j. The federal government should run
ONLY those things that cannot be run
at the local level
38
40
14
5
3 = 100
May, 1990
26
51
16
2
5 = 100
May, 1987
22
53
16
3
6 = 100
133
22. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
k. When something is run by the government,
it is usually inefficient and wasteful
33
36
25
5
1 = 100
May, 1993
24
45
24
5
2 = 100
June, 1992
29
41
24
4
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
32
36
23
7
2 = 100
May, 1990
22
45
25
4
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
26
39
26
5
4 = 100
May, 1988
24
42
26
3
5 = 100
May, 1987
19
44
27
4
6 = 100
1. The Federal Government controls too
much of our daily lives
37
32
25
5
1 = 100
May, 1993
26
39
30
4
1 = 100
June, 1992
28
36
29
5
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
32
31
28
7
2 = 100
May, 1990
22
40
29
5
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
22
35
34
9
3 = 100
May, 1988
25
36
31
5
3 = 100
May, 1987
18
40
32
5
5 = 100
m. The government is really run for the
benefit of all the people
10
32
38
19
1 = 100
June, 1992
8
36
37
17
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
11
37
34
16
2 = 100
May, 1990
10
42
35
10
3 = 100
Feb, 1989
12
45
31
10
2 = 100
May, 1988
11
42
34
10
3 = 100
May, 1987
9
48
31
8
4 = 100
n. Business corporations generally strike
a fair balance between making profits
and serving the public interest
7
38
38
15
2 = 100
June, 1992
5
35
42
14
4 = 100
Nov, 1991
8
32
38
19
3 = 100
May, 1990
5
38
37
13
7 = 100
Feb, 1989
5
33
44
12
6 = 100
May, 1988
6
36
39
13
6 = 100
May, 1987
4
39
38
10
9 = 100
O. There is too much power concentrated
in the hands of a few big companies
31
42
22
4
1 = 100
May, 1993
26
46
22
3
3 = 100
June, 1992
30
47
18
3
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
41
39
14
3
3 = 100
May, 1990
29
48
15
3
5 = 100
Feb, 1989
35
49
12
1
3 = 100
May, 1988
35
44
15
2
4 = 100
May, 1987
27
50
16
2
= 100
134
22. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
p. Business corporations make too
much profit
22
39
28
7
4 = 100
May, 1993
22
41
27
5
5 = 100
June, 1992
21
39
29
5
6 = 100
Nov, 1991
29
36
23
7
5 = 100
May, 1990
23
40
24
6
7 = 100
Feb, 1989
27
45
20
3
5 = 100
May, 1988
25
40
25
4
6 = 100
May, 1987
21
44
24
4
7 = 100
q. It is time for Washington politicians
to step aside and make room for
new leaders
34
45
14
4
3 = 100
June, 1992
38
46
12
2
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
32
45
16
4
3 = 100
May, 1990
21
40
26
4
9=100
Feb, 1989
20
38
30
4
8 = 100
May, 1988
26
42
22
3
7 = 100
May, 1987
16
46
26
3
9=100
Γ. Dealing with a federal government agency
is often not worth the trouble
26
43
22
6
3 = 100
June, 1992
21
43
27
4
5 = 100
May, 1990
21
44
24
4
7 = 100
May, 1988
20
43
27
4
6 = 100
May, 1987
14
44
29
3
10 = 100
S. Many people today think they can get
ahead without working hard and
making sacrifices
27
38
22
12
1 = 100
June, 1992
24
39
22
13
2 = 100
t. As Americans we can always find a way to
solve our problems and get what we want
20
48
24
6
2 = 100
May, 1993
12
47
31
7
3 = 100
June, 1992
16
50
24
8
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
19
49
22
8
2 = 100
May, 1990
13
52
24
6
5 = 100
Feb, 1989
14
55
23
5
3 = 100
May, 1988
15
51
23
7
4 = 100
May, 1987
12
56
24
4
4 = 100
135
22.
CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
u. I don't believe that there are any real
limits to growth in this country today
22
40
28
8
= 100
May, 1993
14
42
34
7
= 100
June, 1992
19
39
30
8
4 = 100
Nov, 1991
24
38
26
9
= 100
May, 1990
19
46
25
5
5 = 100
Feb, 1989
22
46
23
5
4 = 100
May, 1988
19
45
26
6
4 = 100
May, 1987
17
50
24
4
= 100
v. We need new people in Washington even if
they are not as effective as
experienced politicians
20
40
28
10
= 100
June, 1992
20
36
30
11
3 = 100
May, 1990
13
34
37
10
6 = 100
May, 1988
16
35
33
10
6 = 100
May, 1987
9
35
38
10
8 = 100
ASK ALL:
23.
I'd like your views on some people in the news. Some of them may not be familiar to you. If I read a name
you don't recognize, please say so. (First,) would you say your overall opinion of (INSERT ITEM.
ROTATE START) is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Never
Favor-
Favor-
Unfavor-
Unfavor-
Heard
Can't
able
able
able
able
Of
Rate
a. Benjamin Chavis
2
9
4
2
73
10 = 100
b. Bill Clinton
15
43
25
16
*
1 = 100
May, 1993
18
42
23
12
0
= 100
July, 1992
17
42
25
9
0
7 = 100
June, 1992
10
36
33
14
1
6 = 100
May, 1992
11
42
32
10
*
5 = 100
March, 1992
10
43
29
11
1
6 = 100
February, 1992
15
44
24
7
2
8 = 100
January, 1992
9
28
11
4
27
21 = 100
November, 1991
5
25
8
2
39
21 = 100
c. Hillary Rodham Clinton
19
38
22
18
1
2= = 100
May, 1993
19
41
18
11
1
10 = 100
d. Bob Dole
14
45
19
9
6
7 = 100
May, 1993
11
37
20
8
11
13 = 100
May, 1990
7
45
15
5
13
15 = 100
May, 1987
9
51
11
3
9
17 = 100
e. Louis Farrakhan
2
8
14
24
44
8 = 100
136
23. CONTINUED
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Never
Favor-
Favor-
Unfavor-
Unfavor-
Heard
Can't
able
able
able
able
Of
Rate
f. Al Gore
18
49
19
7
2
5 = 100
g. Lani Guinier
2
10
7
3
68
10 = 100
h. Jesse Jackson
12
46
25
12
1
4 = 100
November, 1991
12
44
25
13
1
= 100
May, 1990
12
38
23
22
1
4 = 100
May, 1988
11
35
27
19
1
7 = 100
September, 1987
12
37
26
19
*
6 = 100
May, 1987
13
38
24
17
2
6 = 100
i.
Ross Perot
13
38
29
16
1
3 = 100
May, 1993
21
43
21
10
*
5 = 100
July, 1992
18
30
21
14
1
16 = 100
June, 1992
18
35
18
8
5
16 = 100
May, 1992
11
39
20
7
2
21 = 100
March, 1992
11
18
15
6
29
21 = 100
j. Clarence Thomas
11
40
19
8
13
9 = 100
ITEMS k-p BASED ON HALF SAMPLE A (N = 1899)
k. Jimmy Carter
20
53
18
6
1
= 100
May, 1990
18
49
19
10
2
= 100
May, 1987
14
56
19
8
*
= 100
1. Newt Gingrich
2
12
8
4
65
9=100 =
m. Ted Kennedy
11
34
32
18
1
4 = 100
May, 1990
18
43
19
15
1
4 = 100
May, 1987
21
43
21
10
1
4 = 100
June, 1985
17
42
22
12
1
6 = 100
n. Pat Moynihan
5
28
12
4
37
14 = 100
O. Dan Quayle
10
39
31
15
1
= 100
June, 1992
7
26
34
27
1
5 = 100
November, 1991
9
40
28
15
1
7 = 100
May, 1990
6
41
24
15
4
10 = 100
⁶October, 1988
10
33
21
24
*
12 = 100
³September, 1988
9
32
17
15
2
25 = 100
³August, 1988
12
38
19
9
2
20 = 100
6
Based on registered voters
137
23. CONTINUED
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Never
Favor-
Favor-
Unfavor-
Unfavor-
Heard
Can't
able
able
able
able
Of
Rate
p. Ronald Reagan
22
44
20
13
*
1 = 100
May, 1990
18
44
20
16
*
2= 100
May, 1988
16
40
22
18
7
3= 100
January, 1988
17
42
24
13
*
4 = 100
May, 1987
21
41
22
14
*
2= 100
June, 1985
26
43
18
10
0
= 100
ITEMS q-v BASED ON HALF SAMPLE B (N=1901)
q. Jerry Falwell
4
18
29
25
17
7 = 100
May, 1987
4
22
26
25
10
13 = 100
Γ. Jack Kemp
9
32
10
2
30
17 = 100
June, 1992
9
26
21
5
18
21 = 100
S. Rush Limbaugh
11
24
22
25
11
7 = 100
May, 1993
12
21
16
19
17
15 = 100
t. Oliver North
14
33
26
17
4
6 = 100
u. Colin Powell
33
41
6
2
10
8 = 100
June, 1992
30
35
11
4
10
10 = 100
March, 1991
51
28
2
1
7
11 = 100
V. Ann Richards
8
23
10
4
42
13 = 100
138
24. Now I'd like your opinion of some groups and organizations. (First,) would you say your overall opinion
of (INSERT ITEM. ROTATE START) is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly Unfavorable, or very
unfavorable?
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Never
Favor-
Favor-
Unfavor-
Unfavor-
Heard
Can't
able
able
able
able
Of
Rate
a. The Republican Party
12
51
25
8
*
= 100
May, 1993
12
42
25
10
0
11 = 100
July, 1992
9
37
31
17
*
6 = 100
b. The Democratic Party
13
49
27
7
*
= 100
May, 1993
14
43
25
9
0
9= 100
July, 1992
17
44
24
9
*
= 100
c. ⁷The women's movement
20
48
19
9
*
= 100
November, 1991
19
52
16
6
0
= 100
June, 1985
19
44
19
11
1
6 = 100
⁸The feminist movement
11
44
26
11
2
6 = 100
ITEMS d-j BASED ON HALF SAMPLE A = 1899)
d. The Congress
7
46
34
9
*
= 100
May, 1993
8
35
35
13
0
= 100
November, 1991
7
44
34
9
0
6 = 100
May, 1990
6
53
25
9
1
6= 100
May, 1988
8
56
23
5
0
8= = 100
January, 1988
6
58
25
4
0
= 100
May, 1987
10
64
16
4
*
6= = 100
January, 1987
7
52
23
8
0
10 = 100
June, 1985
9
58
21
5
*
= 100
e. The United Nations
21
55
14
5
1
4 = 100
May, 1993
21
52
13
4
0
10 = 100
May, 1990
15
55
13
6
1
10 = 100
f. The military
30
57
8
3
*
= 100
May, 1993
32
53
8
2
0
= 100
May, 1990
18
55
15
6
*
= 100
April, 1987
17
63
12
4
0
4 = 100
January, 1987
19
54
11
5
*
11 = 100
June, 1985
24
53
13
5
*
= 100
g. Wall Street investors
8
51
18
4
2
17 = 100
April, 1987
5
33
30
11
2
19 = 100
7 Half sample A (N=1899)
8 Half sample B (N=1901)
139
24. CONTINUED
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Never
Favor-
Favor-
Unfavor-
Unfavor-
Heard
Can't
able
able
able
able
Of
Rate
h. The National Rifle Association
19
36
21
16
1
= 100
i
Insurance companies
6
34
38
20
*
= 100
j. MTV
7
29
26
20
6
12 = 100
k. Tobacco companies
6
18
35
38
*
= 100
ITEMS I-s BASED ON HALF SAMPLE B 1901)
1. Labor unions
14
43
28
10
*
= 100
June, 1985
9
37
30
17
*
= 100
m. The Supreme Court
18
62
13
3
*
= 100
May, 1993
17
56
14
4
0
9=100
November, 1991
18
54
16
5
0
= 100
May, 1990
10
55
18
7
1
= 100
January, 1988
14
65
11
2
*
8= 100
May, 1987
13
63
15
2
*
= 100
n. Evangelical Christians
10
33
22
10
11
14 = 100
May, 1990
12
31
19
19
7
12 = 100
O. Business corporations
8
62
19
5
*
6= 100
November, 1991
8
57
22
6
0
= 100
January, 1988
6
53
27
5
*
9=100
June, 1985
8
50
24
7
1
10 = 100
p. The gay rights movement
7
26
27
34
*
6 = 100
140
24. CONTINUED
Very
Mostly
Mostly
Very
Never
Favor-
Favor-
Unfavor-
Unfavor-
Heard
Can't
able
able
able
able
Of
Rate
q. Network TV news
17
52
22
7
*
2= 100
May, 1993
23
58
12
3
0
4= = 100
January, 1992
27
55
11
2
0
5= 100
November, 1991
24
51
16
5
0
4 = 100
March, 1991
40
51
5
2
0
2= 100
May, 1990
22
60
12
3
*
3 = 100
August, 1989
28
54
11
3
4 = 100
February, 1989
21
61
12
3
3= = 100
August⁹, 1988
29
52
9
5
5 = 100
May, 1988
20
58
14
4
4 = 100
January 27, 1988
12
69
13
3
3 = 100
January 7-18, 1988
18
60
14
4
4 = 100
October, 1987
19
62
10
3
6 = 100
May, 1987
21
63
11
3
2 = 100
January, 1987
19
55
16
6
4 = 100
July, 1986
30
53
10
4
3 = 100
August, 1985
30
51
8
2
7 = 100
June, 1985
25
59
8
2
6 = 100
r. The daily newspaper you are
most familiar with
23
57
13
5
*
2 = 100
May, 1993
26
55
10
4
0
5 = 100
January, 1992
27
51
13
5
0
4 = 100
November, 1991
24
56
11
5
0
4 = 100
March, 1991
30
55
7
3
*
= 100
May, 1990
22
56
12
5
*
5 = 100
August, 1989
25
52
12
5
6 = 100
February, 1989
22
56
13
4
= 100
August9, 1988
30
48
10
5
7 = 100
May, 1988
19
59
13
4
5 = 100
January 27, 1988
19
62
11
3
5 = 100
January 7-18, 1988
21
59
12
4
4 = 100
October, 1987
21
58
9
4
8 = 100
May, 1987
22
59
12
3
4 = 100
January, 1987
19
57
13
6
5 = 100
July, 1986
28
51
11
6
4 = 100
August, 1985
25
52
10
5
8 = 100
June, 1985
25
56
8
3
= 100
S. The animal rights movement
23
42
21
9
1
4 = 100
9 Based on Registered Voters
141
25.
I'd like your opinion of some programs and proposals being discussed in this country today. Please tell me
if you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose each one. The first one is (READ AND
ROTATE)
Strongly
Strongly
Don't
Favor
Favor
Oppose
Oppose
Know
a. Allowing government Medicaid benefits to help
pay for abortions for low-income women
14
29
22
33
2 = 100
b. A constitutional amendment to permit prayer
in the public schools
40
34
15
9
2 = 100
May, 1993
31
38
19
7
5 = 100
April, 1987
30
41
17
8
4 = 100
c.
Health care reform that would require employers
to pay most costs of health insurance for
all their workers.
27
35
21
15
2 = 100
d.
Increasing the federal income tax in order to
reduce the deficit
5
21
35
37
2 = 100
May, 1993
4
33
35
23
5 = 100
e.
Restricting the sale of hand guns
35
23
19
21
2 = 100
May, 1993
28
27
26
17
2 = 100
May, 1990
38
27
20
13
2 = 100
f.
Allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly
in the military
16
36
19
26
3 = 100
g.
Using American military force, if necessary,
to make sure North Korea does not obtain
nuclear weapons (HALF SAMPLE A = 1899))
35
37
17
7
= 100
h.
Using American military force, if necessary,
to restore democratic government to Haiti
13
30
31
19
7=100
(HALF SAMPLE B (N=1901))
i.
"Term limitations" to limit the number of
years members of Congress can serve
43
37
12
6
2=100
May, 1993
34
42
14
4
6=100
j.
Free trade agreements between the United States
and other countries, such as NAFTA and GATT
18
44
18
10
10=100
k.
A two-year limit on how long someone can receive
welfare benefits
40
36
14
7
3=100 =
1.
New federal spending to provide education and job
training for American workers whose jobs have
been eliminated
46
42
8
3
1=100
142
25. CONTINUED
Strongly
Strongly
Don't
Favor
Favor
Oppose
Oppose
Know
m. Reducing the capital gains tax to encourage
investment in U.S companies
26
43
15
7
9 = 100
n. Changing policy so illegal immigrants are not
eligible for welfare, Medicaid and other
government benefits
41
28
18
10
3 = 100
O. A total ban on cigarette smoking in all public places
34
23
21
21
1 = 100
p. Lifetime jail sentences with no chance of parole for
anyone convicted of three of more violent crimes
56
29
8
5
2 = 100
26.
Over the course of the next year, do you think the financial situation of you and your family will improve
a lot, improve some, get little worse or get a lot worse?
Times Mirror
U.S. News & World Report
Mar
Oct
Aug
May
Jan
1994
1992
1992
1992
1992
9
Improve a lot
10
9
6
8
9
54
Improve some
57
51
50
49
46
12
Stay the same (VOL)
16
15
14
13
16
18
Get a little worse
11
14
20
22
19
5
Get a lot worse
3
3
5
4
5
2
Don't know/Refused
3
8
5
4
5
100
100
100
100
100
100
ASK ALL:
27.
Are you now employed full-time, part-time or not employed?
Times Mirror
Mar
1994
55
Full-time
53
12
Part-time
14
33
Not employed
32
*
Don't know/Refused
1
100
100
143
Q's.28-29 BASED ON THOSE EMPLOYED FULL-TIME OR PART-TIME
28. Do you now earn enough money to lead the kind of life you want, or not?
Times Mirror
U.S. News & World Report
Mar
Oct
Aug
May
Jan
1994
1992
1992
1992
1992
40
Yes
44
36
33
34
39
60
No
56
63
66
65
61
*
Don't know
*
1
1
1
*
100
100
100
100
100
100
(2652)
(1394)
(817)
(777)
(852)
(1002)
Q.29 ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAID NO TO Q.28
29. Do you think you will be able to earn enough money in the future to lead the kind of life you want, or not?
Times Mirror
U.S. News & World Report
Mar
Oct Aug May Jan
1994
1992
1992
1992
1992
34
Yes
33
35
36
34
34
24
No
20
23
25
28
22
2
Don't know
3
5
5
3
5
60%
56%
63%
66%
65%
61%
(2652)
(1394)
(817)
(777)
(852)
(1002)
30. Do you happen to read any daily newspaper or newspapers regularly?
June
July
May
Jan
Nov
Oct
July
May
1992
1991
1991
1991
1990
1990
1990
1990
74
Yes
75
73
70
72
74
72
71
71
26
No
25
27
30
27
26
28
29
29
*
Don't know
*
*
*
1
0
0
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
31.
Do you happen to watch any TV news programs regularly, or not?
June
July
May
Jan
Nov
Oct
July
May
1992
1991
1991
1991
1990
1990
1990
1990
81
Yes
85
84
84
88
80
81
81
80
19
No
15
16
16
12
20
19
19
20
*
Don't know
*
*
*
*
*
0
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
144
32. Do you listen to the news on the radio regularly, or not?
June
July
May
Jan
Nov
Oct
July
May
1992
1991
1991
1991
1990
1990
1990
1990
52
Yes
54
53
53
55
55
54
55
56
48
No
46
47
47
45
45
46
45
44
0
Don't know
*
*
*
*
*
0
0
*
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Q.33 BASED ON HALF SAMPLE A (N= 1899)
33.
I'd like to know how often you read certain types of publications. As I read each, tell me if you read them
regularly, sometimes, hardly ever or never. (First,) how about (READ AND ROTATE)
Don't
Regularly
Sometimes
Hardly Ever
Never
Know
a. News magazines such as Time,
U.S. News, or Newsweek
18
41
18
23
*= = 100
May, 1993
24
39
14
23
*= 100
June, 1992
20
39
18
23
*= = 100
July, 1990
18
34
18
30
*= 100
June, 1990
21
39
16
24
= 100
May, 1990
17
34
19
30
*= = 100
April, 1990
20
35
16
29
*= 100
March, 1990
16
35
19
30
*= 100
February, 1990
17
36
18
29
0= = 100
January, 1990
18
34
17
31
= 100
b. Business magazines such as
Fortune and Forbes
5
21
21
53
= 100
June, 1992
5
17
21
57
*= 100
July, 1990
5
15
14
66
*= = 100
June, 1990
6
16
16
62
* = 100
May, 1990
4
14
15
67
*= = 100
April, 1990
5
15
14
66
*= 100
March, 1990
5
14
14
67
= 100
February, 1990
4
12
14
70
*= 100
January, 1990
5
13
14
68
0 = 100
c. The National Enquirer,
The Sun or The Star
5
13
16
66
* = 100
June, 1992
5
13
14
68
*= = 100
March, 1990
5
15
13
67
* = 100
February, 1990
7
13
13
67
* = 100
January, 1990
7
12
13
68
0= 100
145
Q.34 BASED ON HALF SAMPLE B (N=1901)
34. I'd like to know how often you watch or listen to certain TV and radio programs. As I read each, tell me
if you watch of listen regularly, sometimes, hardly ever or never. (First,) how about. (READ AND
ROTATE)
Don't
Regularly
Sometimes
Hardly Ever
Never
Know
a. News magazine shows such as
60 Minutes or 20/20
43
43
8
6
= 100
May, 1993
52
37
6
5
= 100
Feb, 1993
49
32
11
8
*= 100
June, 1992
46
40
8
6
= 100
July, 1990
46
38
8
8
= 100
June, 1990
50
36
6
8
*= = 100
May, 1990
45
37
8
10
* = 100
April, 1990
47
37
7
9
= 100
March, 1990
41
42
7
10
* = 100
February, 1990
39
41
10
10
= 100
January, 1990
43
40
8
9
*= 100
b. MacNeil Lehrer
7
23
11
58
= 100
May, 1993
10
24
14
51
= 100
June, 1992
6
19
17
56
= 100
July, 1990
7
16
11
66
* = 100
June, 1990
7
16
12
64
1 = 100
May, 1990
8
15
11
65
= 100
April, 1990
6
16
11
66
= 100
March, 1990
5
19
12
63
1 = 100
February, 1990
5
15
11
69
= 100
January, 1990
6
15
12
67
* = 100
c. TV shows such as A Current
Affair, Hard Copy or Inside Edition
24
40
18
18
= 100
d. Programs on National Public
Radio, such as Morning Edition
or All Things Considered
9
18
11
62
= 100
May, 1993
15
20
15
49
1 = 100
June, 1992
7
16
17
59
1 = 100
July, 1990
9
13
8
70
*= = 100
June, 1990
9
10
11
69
1 = 100
May, 1990
7
11
10
72
= 100
April, 1990
7
12
9
71
1 = 100
March, 1990
7
9
10
74
= 100
February, 1990
8
10
8
74
= 100
January, 1990
5
10
7
78
*= 100
146
34.
CONTINUED
Don't
Regularly
Sometimes
Hardly Ever
Never
Know
e. Cable News Network (CNN)
33
36
7
24
* = 100
May, 1993
35
34
7
24
* = 100
June, 1992
30
32
10
27
1 = 100
July, 1990
27
28
8
36
1 = 100
June, 1990
30
27
6
37
* = 100
May, 1990
27
25
7
40
1 = 100
April, 1990
26
29
7
37
1 = 100
March, 1990
22
28
8
41
1 = 100
February, 1990
23
29
8
40
0= 100
January, 1990
26
25
7
41
1 = 100
f. C-Span
9
26
12
52
1 = 100
May, 1993
11
25
13
48
3 = 100
Feb, 1993
7
18
14
45
16 = 100
June, 1992
6
19
18
54
3 = 100
g. MTV
6
19
15
60
*= 100
h. Rush Limbaugh's radio show
6
20
13
61
* = 100
i. Howard Stern's morning radio show
2
5
6
87
* = 100
j. The "Imus in the Morning" radio show
3
4
5
87
1 = 100
ASK ALL:
35. How often, if ever, do you listen to radio shows that invite listeners to call in to discuss current events, public
issues and politics (READ)
June Mar Jan
1994 1994 1994
17
Regularly
22
19
18
29
Sometimes
27
29
26
24
Rarely
25
27
27
30
Never
26
25
29
*
Don't know
0
*
*
100
100
100
100
147
36.
Have you EVER called, sent a letter, or faxed a letter to your Congressional representative or Senator to
express your opinion on an issue?
37.
Have you done so IN JUST THE PAST 12 MONTHS?
Mar Jan
1994 1994
CONTACT WITH CONGRESSIONAL
REPRESENTATIVE/SENATOR
48
Ever contacted
45
41
26
In past 12 months
23
22
22
Not in past 12 months
22
18
*
Last contact undesignated
*
1
52
Never contacted
55
58
*
Don't know
*
1
100
100
100
148
38.
Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. As I read each pair, tell me whether the FIRST
statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views -- even if neither is exactly right. The
first pair is (READ AND ROTATE) (AFTER CHOICE IS MADE, PROBE: Do you feel STRONGLY
about that, or not?)
q.
78
This country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment
62
Strongly
16
Not strongly
19
This country has gone too far in its efforts to protect the environment
12
Strongly
7
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
Γ.
33
Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy
21
Strongly
12
Not strongly
62
Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost
45
Strongly
17
Not strongly
5
Neither/Don't know
100
S.
51
There are no real limits to growth in this country today
33
Strongly
18
Not strongly
45
People in this country should learn to live with less
30
Strongly
15
Not strongly
4
Neither/Don't know
100
t.
52
As Americans, we can always find ways to solve our problems and get what we want
35
Strongly
17
Not strongly
45
This country can't solve many of its important problems
30
Strongly
15
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
149
38.
CONTINUED
u.
46
Homosexuality is a way of life that should be accepted by society
26
Strongly
20
Not strongly
49
Homosexuality is a way of life that should be discouraged by society
41
Strongly
8
Not strongly
5
Neither/Don't know
100
V.
46
Books that contain dangerous ideas should be banned from public school libraries
37
Strongly
9
Not strongly
51
Public school libraries should be allowed to carry any books they want
39
Strongly
12
Not strongly
3
Neither/Don't know
100
W.
84
Miracles are performed by the power of God
72
Strongly
12
Not strongly
12
There is no such thing as a miracle performed by God
7
Strongly
5
Not strongly
4
Neither/Don't know
100
X.
80
We will all be called before God on Judgment Day to answer for our sins
71
Strongly
9
Not strongly
16
I don't believe we will have to answer for our sins on Judgment Day
9
Strongly
7
Not strongly
4
Neither/Don't know
100
150
38.
CONTINUED
y.
56
I'm generally satisfied with the way things are going for me financially
36
Strongly
20
Not strongly
43
I'm not very satisfied with my financial situation
33
Strongly
10
Not strongly
1
Neither/Don't know
100
Z.
36
I often don't have enough money to make ends meet
27
Strongly
9
Not strongly
63
Paying the bills is generally not a problem for me
43
Strongly
20
Not strongly
1
Neither/Don't know
100
151
Q.39 BASED ON SUPPLEMENTAL SAMPLE (N= 1009)
39. Now I am going to read you another series of statements on some different topics. For each statement,
please tell me if you completely agree with it, mostly agree with it, mostly disagree with it or completely
disagree with it. The first one is... (READ ITEMS, IN ORDER. DO NOT ROTATE)
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
a. There needs to be stricter laws and
regulations to protect the environment
46
36
13
4
1 = 100
June, 1992
55
35
7
2
1 = 100
b. People should be willing to pay higher
prices in order to protect the
environment
17
40
28
14
1 = 100
May, 1993
12
45
31
10
= 100
June, 1992
26
41
22
10
1 = 100
c. Our society should do what is necessary
to make sure that everyone has an
equal opportunity to succeed
52
39
6
2
1 = 100
June, 1992
59
34
4
2
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
64
30
3
2
1 = 100
May, 1990
45
46
6
1
2 = 100
Feb, 1989
49
42
6
2
1 = 100
May, 1988
48
43
6
1
2 = 100
May, 1987
37
53
7
1
2 = 100
d. We have gone too far in pushing equal
rights in this country
21
27
28
22
2 = 100
May, 1993
14
29
34
20
3 = 100
June, 1992
16
24
30
27
3 = 100
Nov, 1991
16
22
32
27
3 = 100
May, 1990
15
28
32
21
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
17
24
34
22
3 = 100
May, 1988
17
28
32
20
3 = 100
May, 1987
11
31
37
16
5 = 100
e. It is the responsibility of the
government to take care of people
who can't take care of themselves
20
37
26
15
= 100
May, 1993
19
43
26
9
3 = 100
June, 1992
28
41
20
8
3 = 100
May, 1990
23
44
23
6
4 = 100
May, 1988
26
48
17
6
3 = 100
May, 1987
21
50
20
4
5 = 100
152
39. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
f. The government should help more
needy people even if it means
going deeper in debt
13
28
37
19
3 = 100
May, 1993
9
34
40
12
5 = 100
June, 1992
18
35
31
12
4 = 100
Nov, 1991
20
31
31
15
3 = 100
May, 1990
15
36
34
10
5 = 100
May, 1988
17
35
30
12
6 = 100
May, 1987
13
40
33
7
7 = 100
g. The government should guarantee every
citizen enough to eat and a
place to sleep
27
32
25
14
2 = 100
June, 1992
32
33
22
10
3 = 100
Nov, 1991
41
32
16
9
2 = 100
May, 1990
27
35
25
9
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
35
30
22
10
3 = 100
May, 1988
28
38
22
9
3 = 100
May, 1987
22
40
26
7
5 = 100
h. I am very patriotic
51
40
6
2
1 = 100
June, 1992
52
39
5
2
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
58
33
5
2
2 = 100
May, 1990
48
40
8
2
2 = 100
Feb, 1989
51
40
6
1
2 = 100
May, 1988
51
38
6
2
3 = 100
May, 1987
43
46
7
1
3 = 100
i. In the past few years there hasn't been
much real improvement in the position
of black people in this country
14
33
35
14
4 = 100
May, 1993
14
37
37
9
3 = 100
June, 1992
21
36
30
9
4 = 100
Nov, 1991
17
28
33
16
6 = 100
May, 1990
10
28
42
16
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
13
29
39
16
3 = 100
May, 1988
12
25
41
18
4 = 100
May, 1987
8
28
45
14
5 = 100
j. I think it's all right for blacks
and whites to date each other
35
33
13
16
3 = 100
June, 1992
33
31
14
18
4 = 100
Nov, 1991
35
31
12
18
4 = 100
May, 1990
19
30
18
26
7 = 100
Feb, 1989
21
29
20
25
5 = 100
May, 1988
21
28
18
28
5 = 100
May, 1987
13
35
22
24
6 = 100
153
39.
CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
k. We should make every possible effort to
improve the position of blacks and other
minorities, even if it means giving
them preferential treatment
10
19
35
34
= 100
May, 1993
8
26
41
22
3 = 100
June, 1992
11
23
36
27
3 = 100
Nov, 1991
10
20
33
34
3 = 100
May, 1990
8
16
39
33
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
8
20
36
32
4 = 100
May, 1988
7
19
36
35
3 = 100
May, 1987
6
18
43
28
= 100
1. Discriminations against blacks
are rare today
6
18
45
28
= 100
June, 1992
6
13
43
35
= 100
May, 1990
5
26
42
23
4 = 100
May, 1988
7
25
41
24
3 = 100
May, 1987
6
28
43
18
5 = 100
m. We should restrict and control people
coming into our country to live more
than we do now
47
35
12
5
1 = 100
June, 1992
42
34
15
6
= 100
n. It is my belief that we should get
even with any country that tries
to take advantage of the United States
19
24
35
19
3 = 100
June, 1992
19
27
34
15
= 100
Nov, 1991
21
24
31
20
4 = 100
May, 1990
14
33
33
13
= 100
Feb, 1989
20
34
30
12
4 = 100
May, 1988
19
34
29
11
= 100
May, 1987
11
33
37
10
9 = 100
o. The best way to ensure peace is
through military strength
20
35
27
17
= 100
May, 1993
16
38
33
10
= 100
June, 1992
21
33
30
13
= 100
Nov, 1991
21
31
29
16
3 = 100
May, 1990
17
35
31
13
= 100
Feb, 1989
22
39
26
10
= 100
May, 1988
22
37
25
12
4 = 100
May, 1987
14
40
30
10
= 100
154
39. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
p. American lives are worth more than the
lives of people in other countries
12
14
31
42
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
11
12
28
46
3 = 100
May, 1990
10
18
32
36
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
8
15
31
43
3 = 100
May, 1988
9
15
34
39
3 = 100
May, 1987
7
17
39
32
5 = 100
q. We all should be willing to fight for
our country, whether it is
right or wrong
25
28
25
20
2 = 100
May, 1993
21
34
29
13
3 = 100
June, 1992
24
33
25
14
4 = 100
Nov, 1991
30
30
21
16
3 = 100
May, 1990
22
33
24
16
5 = 100
Feb, 1989
22
35
23
15
5 = 100
May, 1988
23
34
24
14
5 = 100
May, 1987
17
37
27
13
6 = 100
Γ. I often worry about the chances of
nuclear war
24
24
32
19
1 = 100
May, 1990
21
31
29
16
3 = 100
May, 1988
28
33
25
12
2 = 100
May, 1987
23
39
27
0
2 = 100
S. Most of the countries that have gotten
help from America end up resenting us
29
43
21
3
4 = 100
June, 1992
30
43
19
3
5 = 100
May, 1990
27
46
18
2
7 = 100
May, 1988
32
44
16
2
6 = 100
May, 1987
21
50
19
2
8 = 100
t. It's best for the future of our country
to be active in world affairs
51
39
7
2
1 = 100
May, 1993
33
54
9
1
3 = 100
June, 1992
47
44
5
2
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
54
38
4
2
2 = 100
May, 1990
39
50
6
1
4 = 100
Feb, 1989
51
42
3
1
3 = 100
May, 1988
47
43
6
1
3 = 100
May, 1987
32
55
7
1
5 = 100
u. Poor people have become too dependent
on government assistance programs
46
39
10
3
2 = 100
May, 1993
31
49
15
3
2 = 100
June, 1992
35
44
14
4
3 = 100
155
39. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
V. Japan has taken unfair advantage of
the United States
29
37
21
5
8= 100
June, 1992
34
35
21
6
4 = 100
W. We should pay less attention to
problems overseas and concentrate
on problems here at home
46
38
12
3
1 = 100
May, 1993
40
45
12
2
1 = 100
June, 1992
48
40
9
2
1 = 100
ASK ALL:
40. In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
June
May
Feb
May
Jan
May
1992
1990
1989
1988
1988
1987
29
Republican
28
28
31
28
27
25
33
Democrat
32
33
38
38
39
37
35
Independent
36
28
23
26
26
28
2
No preference
1
9
7
6
6
8
*
Other party
*
*
*
*
*
*
1
Don't know
3
2
1
2
2
2
100
100
100
100
100
100
41.
Do you consider yourself a STRONG Republican, or NOT a strong Republican?
June
May
Feb
May
Jan
May
1992
1990
1989
1988
1988
1987
13 Strong
11
13
15
13
12
11
16
Not strong
17
15
15
15
15
14
0
Don't know
0
0
1
0
0
0
29
28
28
31
28
27
25
156
42. Do you consider yourself a STRONG Democrat, or NOT a strong Democrat?
June
May
Feb
May
Jan
May
1992
1990
1989
1988
1988
1987
15
Strong
14
16
17
19
19
18
18
Not strong
18
17
19
19
20
19
0
Don't know
0
0
2
0
0
0
33
32
33
38
38
39
37
43.
As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
June
May
Feb
May
Jan
May
1992
1990
1989
1988
1988
1987
17
Republican
14
13
9
12
11
13
14
Democratic
13
13
11
12
13
13
7
Don't know
13
13
11
10
10
12
38
40
39
31
34
34
38
NOTE ON TRENDS FOR Q.40 - Q.43: Surveys conducted prior to June, 1992 are based on in-person
interviews. Surveys based on personal interviews tend to show higher percentages of self-identified Democrats
than telephone surveys.
44. When you were growing up, did your parents usually vote for Republicans or Democrats? (IF PARENTS
VOTED DIFFERENTLY, ASK: How did the parent you felt closer to usually vote?)
28
Republicans
47
Democrats
6
Both/Split ticket (VOL)
4
Didn't vote/Not eligible (VOL)
2
Other response
13
Don't know/Refused
100
157
Q.45 BASED ON HALF SAMPLE A = 1899)
45.
I'm going to read you some phrases. Please tell me if you think each one better describes the REPUBLICAN
Party and its leaders or the DEMOCRATIC Party and its leaders. (First,) which party do you think is better
described by the phrase... (INSERT ITEM. ROTATE START)?
Republican
Democratic
Both
Don't
Party
Party
Equally
Neither
Know
a. Well organized
48
27
7
13
= 100
May, 1990
40
16
22
13
9=100
May, 1988
39
23
15
14
= 100
January, 1988
38
20
19
14
= 100
May, 1987
34
19
25
13
9=100 =
b. Selects good candidates for office
40
36
6
13
= 100
May, 1990
32
22
21
17
8 = 100
May, 1988
28
30
13
19
10 = 100
January, 1988
31
24
18
18
9=100
May, 1987
27
26
25
13
9=100 =
c. Is concerned with the needs and interests
of the disadvantaged
21
65
4
5
= 100
May, 1990
14
56
12
10
8 = 100
May, 1987
11
61
14
7
= 100
d. Able to manage the Federal government well
43
31
4
17
= 100
May, 1990
28
20
12
31
= 100
May, 1988
33
30
10
17
10 = 100
January, 1988
30
28
12
20
10 = 100
May, 1987
24
25
13
28
10 = 100
e. Can bring about the kind of changes
the country needs
39
42
4
10
= 100
May, 1990
27
31
13
18
11 = 100
May, 1988
27
43
9
11
10 = 100
January, 1988
28
37
14
11
10 = 100
May, 1987
26
36
14
14
10 = 100
f. Is concerned with the needs and interests
of business and other powerful groups
66
23
5
1
= 100
May, 1990
57
15
15
5
= 100
May, 1987
58
15
16
3
= 100
g. Is concerned with the needs of people like me
35
49
4
8
= 100
May, 1990
21
42
12
18
= 100
May, 1988
23
51
8
11
= 100
January, 1988
22
47
11
13
= 100
h. Governs in an honest and ethical way
32
35
6
21
= 100
158
Q.46 BASED ON HALF SAMPLE B 1901)
46. Next, please tell if you think the REPUBLICAN Party or the DEMOCRATIC Party could do a better job
in each of the following areas... (First,) which party could do a better job of (READ AND ROTATE)
Republican
Democratic
Both
Don't
Party
Party
Equally
Neither
Know
a. Improving our educational system
37
46
4
5
8= 100
May, 1990
30
42
NA
14
14 = 100
b. Protecting U.S. jobs
40
42
3
8
7 = 100
May, 1990
30
40
NA
16
14 = 100
c. Protecting the environment
28
56
4
4
8 = 100
May, 1990
24
40
NA
19
17 = 100
d. Reforming the U.S. health care system
34
48
2
8
8 = 100
e. Making America competitive in the
world economy
48
35
4
5
8 = 100
May, 1990
41
25
NA
17
17 = 100
f. Making wise decisions about the
country's defense policies
51
31
4
6
8 = 100
May, 1990
39
28
NA
17
16 = 100
g. Reducing the federal budget deficit
42
36
2
13
7 = 100
h. Reforming government
39
40
3
11
7 = 100
i. Protecting traditional American values
47
35
4
7
7 = 100
j. Promoting morality and personal responsibility
46
34
4
8
8 = 100
47.
In general, would you describe your political views as... (READ)
7
Very conservative
32
Conservative
39
Moderate
15
Liberal, OR
4
Very liberal?
3
Don't know/Refused (DO NOT READ)
100
159
48.
Thinking again about the Democratic and Republican Parties, would you say there is a great deal of
difference in what they stand for, a fair amount of difference, or hardly any difference at all?
May May
1990 1987
23 A great deal
24
25
51 A fair amount
45
45
24 Hardly at all
27
25
2 No opinion/Don't know
4
5
100
100 100
49.
Now I'm going to read you some different groups in American society. Please tell me if you think each has
TOO MUCH say in the way the government in Washington is run, NOT ENOUGH say, or about the RIGHT
AMOUNT of say in the way the government is run. (First,) do (INSERT ITEM. ROTATE START) have
too much say, not enough say, or about the right amount?
Too
Not
Right
Don't
Much
Enough
Amount
Know
a. Women
11
46
41
= 100
b. Blacks
11
47
39
3 = 100
c. Hispanics
10
47
35
8 = 100
d. Gays and lesbians
41
25
30
4 = 100
e. Religious leaders
30
29
38
3 = 100
f. Middle income voters
3
68
27
2 = 100
g. White males
37
13
47
3 = 100
50.
Which of the following two statements about the news media do you agree with more. (READ)
25
The news media helps society to solve its problems.
OR
71
The news media gets in the way of society solving its problems.
4
Don't know/Refused
100
160
51.
Some people say we should have a third major political party in this country in addition to the Democrats
and Republicans. Do you agree or disagree?
ABC/Washington¹⁰
Post
Jan
Sept
1984
1982
53
Agree
41
44
43
Disagree
48
44
4
Don't know/Refused
11
12
100
100
100
10
Trends based on a somewhat different question wording: "Tell me if you tend to agree
or disagree with [the following statement], or if perhaps, you have no opinion about the
statement -- 'We should have a third major political party in this country in addition to
the Democrats and Republicans."
161
Q.52 BASED ON SUPPLEMENTAL SAMPLE 1009)
52.
I'm going to read you some more statements on a different topic. Please tell me how much you agree or
disagree with each of these statements. The first one is (READ ITEMS, IN ORDER. DO NOT
ROTATE)
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
a. Prayer is an important part of
my daily life
52
26
14
8
* = 100
Nov, 1991
50
30
13
6
1 = 100
May, 1990
46
31
16
6
1 = 100
May, 1988
46
32
15
6
1 = 100
May, 1987
41
35
17
6
1 = 100
b. We all will be called before God at the
Judgment Day to answer for our sins
61
23
7
7
= 100
May, 1993
56
26
6
5
= 100
June, 1992
62
21
7
7
= 100
May, 1990
52
29
9
5
= 100
Feb, 1989
62
22
6
5
5 = 100
May, 1988
52
28
8
6
6 = 100
May, 1987
52
29
9
5
5 = 100
c. Even today miracles are performed by
the power of God
58
26
8
6
= 100
June, 1992
58
25
8
6
= 100
May, 1990
49
33
9
4
= 100
Feb, 1989
53
30
7
5
= 100
May, 1988
51
29
9
6
= 100
May, 1987
47
35
9
4
5 = 100
d. I never doubt the existence of God
72
16
6
5
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
71
17
8
3
1 = 100
May, 1990
60
27
8
3
= 100
Feb, 1989
66
22
6
4
= 100
May, 1988
63
24
7
4
= 100
May, 1987
60
28
7
3
= 100
e. School boards ought to have the
right to fire teachers who are
known homosexuals
24
15
29
29
= 100
May, 1993
17
17
34
26
= 100
June, 1992
24
16
27
28
= 100
Nov, 1991
23
16
28
28
5=100
May, 1990
29
20
24
21
= 100
Feb, 1989
28
20
26
21
= 100
May, 1988
29
22
25
18
= 100
May, 1987
27
24
28
14
= 100
162
52. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
f. Books that contain dangerous ideas
should be banned from public
school libraries
30
21
23
24
2 = 100
May, 1993
26
26
23
21
4 = 100
June, 1992
30
18
22
27
3 = 100
Nov, 1991
29
20
20
28
3 = 100
May, 1990
29
21
24
21
5 = 100
Feb, 1989
26
24
23
23
4 = 100
May, 1988
29
22
22
22
5 = 100
May, 1987
24
26
25
19
6 = 100
g. Nude magazines and X-rated movies
provide harmless entertainment
for those who enjoy it
15
29
25
29
2 = 100
May, 1990
12
29
27
27
5 = 100
May, 1988
15
30
28
23
5 = 100
May, 1987
14
34
26
21
5 = 100
h. Freedom of speech should not extend to
groups like the Communist Party or
the Ku Klux Klan
21
20
29
28
2 = 100
May, 1990
17
18
32
27
6 = 100
May, 1988
17
20
32
26
5 = 100
May, 1987
16
23
36
19
6 = 100
i. The police should be allowed to search
the houses of known drug dealers
without a court order
33
18
22
26
1 = 100
May, 1990
33
24
23
18
2 = 100
May, 1988
31
23
21
22
2 = 100
May, 1987
25
26
27
18
4 = 100
j. Women should return to their
traditional roles in society
12
18
27
40
3 = 100
Nov, 1991
10
13
26
49
2 = 100
May, 1990
10
20
32
35
3 = 100
Feb, 1989
10
16
30
41
3 = 100
May, 1988
11
20
30
36
3 = 100
May, 1987
9
21
37
29
4 = 100
k. Too many children are being raised in
day care centers these days
39
36
16
7
2 = 100
May, 1990
26
47
17
5
5 = 100
May, 1988
29
40
19
7
5 = 100
May, 1987
23
45
22
5
5 = 100
163
52.
CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
1. AIDS might be God's punishment for
immoral sexual behavior
17
22
21
36
4 = 100
May, 1993
13
22
24
33
8= 100
June, 1992
17
19
19
38
7 = 100
May, 1990
16
22
19
33
10 = 100
May, 1988
20
24
20
28
8= 100
May, 1987
17
26
22
25
10 = 100
m. I have old-fashioned values about
family and marriage
53
31
10
4
= 100
Nov, 1991
49
32
10
8
1 = 100
May, 1990
49
38
8
4
1 = 100
Feb, 1989
46
37
9
6
2 = 100
May, 1988
50
35
9
4
2 = 100
May, 1987
45
42
9
2
2 = 100
n. There are clear guidelines about
what's good or evil that apply
to everyone regardless of their
situation
44
36
12
6
2 = 100
June, 1992
41
35
12
9
3 = 100
Nov, 1991
42
34
13
9
= 100
May, 1990
36
43
11
6
4 = 100
May, 1988
38
41
12
6
4 = 100
May, 1987
34
45
12
4
= 100
o. Today it's really true that the
rich just get richer while the poor
get poorer
33
38
20
7
2 = 100
June, 1992
38
40
16
4
2 = 100
Nov, 1991
45
35
13
5
2 = 100
May, 1990
38
40
16
3
3 = 100
Feb, 1989
40
38
15
4
3 = 100
May, 1988
34
42
18
3
3 = 100
May, 1987
31
43
19
3
4 = 100
p. I can usually tell whether I'll have
a lot in common with someone by knowing
how much education he or she has
8
25
42
25
* = 100
Nov, 1991
10
22
40
27
1 = 100
May, 1990
7
23
46
21
= 100
Feb, 1989
8
25
42
22
= 100
May, 1988
6
24
44
23
= 100
May, 1987
5
23
49
18
= 100
164
52. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
q. I don't have much in common with
people of other races
3
9
45
41
2 = 100
May, 1990
5
19
50
22
4 = 100
May, 1988
6
19
46
26
3 = 100
May, 1987
3
20
54
18
5 = 100
Γ. I often don't have enough money to
make ends meet
19
24
37
19
1 = 100
May, 1993
25
29
30
14
2 = 100
June, 1992
26
26
31
16
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
27
24
32
16
1 = 100
May, 1990
19
28
41
11
1 = 100
Feb, 1989
20
30
37
12
1 = 100
May, 1988
17
28
42
12
1 = 100
May, 1987
14
29
44
11
2 = 100
S. Money is one of my most important
concerns
15
25
36
24
* *= = 100
Nov, 1991
23
29
29
18
1 = 100
May, 1990
18
35
35
11
1 = 100
Feb, 1989
19
34
32
14
1 = 100
May, 1988
17
35
35
12
1 = 100
May, 1987
13
34
39
12
2 = 100
t. I'm pretty well satisfied with the way
things are going for me financially
17
47
24
11
1 = 100
May, 1993
12
46
28
13
1 = 100
June, 1992
16
42
25
16
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
16
41
26
16
1 = 100
May, 1990
9
49
28
13
1 = 100
Feb, 1989
13
49
25
12
1 = 100
May, 1988
13
52
25
9
1 = 100
May, 1987
11
52
27
8
2 = 100
u. I feel it's my duty as a citizen
to always vote
66
27
4
3
* = 100
May, 1993
66
28
4
1
1 = 100
June, 1992
69
22
6
2
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
72
21
4
2
1 = 100
May, 1990
50
35
9
4
2 = 100
Feb, 1989
64
26
6
2
2 = 100
May, 1988
56
32
7
2
3 = 100
May, 1987
46
39
9
3
3 = 100
165
52.
CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
V. I'm interested in keeping up
with national affairs
46
43
9
2
* = 100
June, 1992
51
40
6
2
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
46
44
7
2
1 = 100
May, 1990
33
49
12
4
2 = 100
Feb, 1989
34
50
12
2
2 = 100
May, 1988
39
47
10
2
2 = 100
May, 1987
28
53
12
3
4 = 100
W. I'm generally bored by what goes
on in Washington
17
34
33
15
1 = 100
June, 1992
20
35
31
13
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
16
36
30
16
= 100
May, 1990
12
36
38
12
= 100
Feb, 1989
10
37
37
13
3 = 100
May, 1988
11
37
38
12
= 100
May, 1987
8
34
41
13
4 = 100
X. I'm pretty interested in following
local politics
24
52
18
5
1 = 100
June, 1992
26
47
21
5
1 = 100
Nov, 1991
29
48
16
5
= 100
May, 1990
17
53
23
6
1 = 100
Feb, 1989
24
49
21
5
1 = 100
May, 1988
21
51
22
5
1 = 100
May, 1987
16
54
22
4
4 = 100
y. Most issues discussed in Washington
don't affect me personally
5
25
42
27
1 = 100
June, 1992
7
26
43
22
= 100
Nov, 1991
8
25
41
23
3 = 100
May, 1990
7
28
46
16
3 = 100
Feb, 1989
7
26
44
20
3 = 100
May, 1988
7
29
45
17
= 100
May, 1987
5
26
50
15
4 = 100
z. I feel guilty when I don't get
a chance to vote
38
32
18
9
= 100
June, 1992
39
30
16
9
100
Nov, 1991
46
28
14
8
4 = 100
May, 1990
30
37
22
8
3 = 100
Feb, 1989
38
34
17
7
= 100
May, 1988
32
37
18
8
= 100
May, 1987
25
41
22
6
= 100
166
52. CONTINUED
Completely
Mostly
Mostly
Completely
Don't
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
Know
aa. Sometimes I vote for a candidate without really
knowing enough about him or her
14
38
27
20
1 = 100
June, 1992
14
38
25
20
3 = 100
Nov, 1991
18
36
22
22
2 = 100
May, 1990
12
41
27
15
5 = 100
Feb, 1989
15
41
24
17
3 = 100
May, 1988
12
44
24
15
15 = 100
May, 1987
9
44
28
13
6 = 100
ASK ALL:
53.
Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether
there's an election or not. Others aren't that interested. Would you say you follow what's going on in
government and public affairs (READ)
May
Feb
May
Jan
May
1990
1989
1988
1988
1987
46 Most of the time
39
47
37
37
41
33
Some of the time
34
34
37
35
35
15 Only now and then
18
14
17
18
15
6 Hardly at all
9
4
6
8
7
*
Don't know
*
1
3
2
2
100
100
100
100
100
100
54.
Thinking back to the 1992 presidential election, when Clinton ran against Bush and Perot, did things come
up that kept you from voting, or did you happen to vote? IF YES, ASK: Did you vote for Clinton, Bush or
Perot?
32
Yes, Clinton
27
Yes, Bush
14
Yes, Perot
*
Yes, other candidate
1
Yes, don't remember which candidate
23
No, didn't vote/Too young
*
Don't Remember if voted
3
Refused
100
167
55.
In that same 1992 election, did you happen to vote for a Republican candidate or a Democratic candidate for
U.S. Congress in your district?
31
Republican
32
Democrat
*
Other candidate
2
Didn't vote for Congress/Only voted for President
8
Don't remember which candidate
23
Didn't vote/Don't remember
4
Refused
100
56.
Thinking back to the 1988 presidential election, when Bush ran against Dukakis, did things come up that kept
you from voting, or did you happen to vote? IF YES, ASK: Did you vote for Bush or Dukakis?
48
Yes, Bush
17
Yes, Dukakis
*
Yes, other candidate
1
Yes, don't remember which candidate
30
No, didn't vote/Too young
2
Don't Remember if voted
2
Refused
100
57.
These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote, or move around so often they
don't get a chance to re-register.. Are you NOW registered to vote in your precinct or election district, or
haven't you been able to register so far?
58.
Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote, or is there a chance your registration has lapsed
because you moved or for some other reason?
June
1992
79
Yes, registered
76
75
Absolutely sure
73
4
Chance
3
0
Don't know
0
20
No
23
1
Not sure/Don't know
1
100
100
168
59. How often would you say you vote. (READ)
June
May
Nov
May
Feb
Jan
May
1992
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
40
Always
47
41
38
33
45
39
34
30
Nearly always
26
32
37
35
30
33
37
14
Part of the time
10
13
13
12
10
12
11
11
Seldom
11
11
9
10
8
8
6
*
(DO NOT READ) Other
1
*
0
1
1
1
2
5
(DO NOT READ) Never vote
5
3
3
8
6
6
9
*
Don't know/no answer
*
*
*
1
*
1
1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
60.
Please tell me which of the following activities, if any, you personally do. First, do you (READ AND
ROTATE)
Yes
a. Jog, work out in a gym, play a racquet sport,
or otherwise get regular vigorous exercise.
60
b. Read more than six books for pleasure a year
61
c. Regularly watch daytime TV "soap operas"
17
d. Go out to the movies at least once a month
36
e. Closely follow the stock market or other
financial markets
24
f. Attend Bible study or prayer group meetings
33
e. Go hunting
18
f. Go hiking or camping
48
g. Work with, lead or coach a youth group
21
h. Go to a shopping mall
61
i. Do volunteer work for a charity or other
non-profit organization
47
j. Go out to nightclubs
26
169
60. CONTINUED.
Yes
k. Attend theater, ballet, opera or
classical music concerts
36
1. Use a personal computer at home
31
61.
What is you favorite kind of music to listen to (READ. ACCEPT MULTIPLE ANSWERS BUT DO NOT
PROBE FOR THEM)
31
Country/Western
21
Oldies rock
21
Contemporary pop or rock
16
Classical
11
Gospel
9
Something else? (SPECIFY)
9
Jazz
8
Rhythm & Blues
3
Show tunes, OR
3
Rap
1
Don't listen to music (VOL)
1
Don't know/Refused
170
ASK ALL:
Finally, I'd like to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only
D1.
Which of the following BEST describes the place where you now live (READ)
20
A large city?
23
A suburb near a large city?
37
A small city or town?
20
OR a rural area?
*
Don't know (DO NOT READ)
*
Refused (DO NOT READ)
100
D2.
Do you own or rent your home?
69
Own
28
Rent
3
Other arrangement (VOL)
*
Don't know
*
Refused
100
D3.
Are you married, divorced, separated, widowed, or have you never been married?
56
Married
11
Divorced
3
Separated
9
Widowed
21
Never married
*
Refused
100
171
D4. Are you the parent or guardian of any children under 18 now living in your household?
36
Yes
64
No
*
Refused
100
D5. Are you, or is your (husband/wife), a member of a labor union?
9
Yes, respondent
6
Yes, spouse
2
Yes, both
83
No, neither
0
Don't know
*
Refused
100
D6. What is the last grade or class that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ)
4
None, or grade 1-8
14
High school incomplete (grades 9-11)
35
High school graduate (grade 12 or GED certificate)
4
Business, technical, or vocational school AFTER high school
22
Some college, no 4-year degree
13
College graduate (B.S., B.A. or other 4-year degree)
8
Post-graduate training or professional schooling after college (e.g., toward a master's degree or Ph.D;
law or medical school)
*
Don't Know
*
Refused
100
172
D7.
What is your age?
22
18-29
42
30-49
19
50-64
17
65+
*
Refused
100
D8.
What is your religious preference - Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish, Mormon, or an orthodox church
such as the Greek or Russian Orthodox Church?
58
Protestant (Baptist, Christian, Episcopal, Jehovah's Witness, Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian, etc.)
25
Roman Catholic
2
Jewish
1
Orthodox Church (Greek or Russian)
2
Mormon (include Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints)
*
Islam/Muslim
2
Other religion (SPECIFY)
8
No religion, Atheist
1
Don't know
1
Refused
100
D9.
Would you describe yourself as a "born again" or evangelical Christian, or not?
35
Yes, would
61
No, would not
4
Don't know/Refused
100
173
D10. Do you go to church, synagogue or some other place of worship...(READ)
27
Every week
12
Almost every week
15
Once or twice a month
28
A few times a year, OR
17
Never?
1
Don't know/Refused
100
D11. Last year, that is in 1993, what was your total family income from all sources, before taxes? Just stop me
when I get to the right category. (READ)
10
Less than $10,000
16
$10,000 to under $20,000
18
$20,000 to under $30,000
27
$30,000 to under $50,000
13
$50,000 to under $75,000
4
$75,000 to under $100,000
3
$100,000 or more
4
Don't know (DO NOT READ)
5
Refused (DO NOT READ)
100
174
D12. What is your race? Are you white, black, Asian or some other race?
86
White
10
Black or African American
*
Asian
3
Other or mixed race
0
Don't know
1
Refused
100
D13. Are you, yourself, of Hispanic or Latino background, such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other
Spanish background?
4
Yes
95
No
*
Don't know
1
Refused
100
D14. ENTER RESPONDENT'S SEX:
48
Male
52
Female
100
175
TIMES MIRROR CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS
NEW POLITICAL TYPOLOGY RE-INTERVIEW
FINAL TOPLINE
Sept. 9 - - 11, 1994
N = 1500
INTRODUCTION: Hello, my name is
and I'm calling for Princeton Survey Research Associates. We
interviewed a
year old (Q04) in your household a few week ago for a national opinion survey we are
conducting for leading newspapers, radio and television stations. I'd like to ask just a few quick follow-up
questions to update his/her answers. Could I please speak to that person?
(If necessary: "This update will take no longer than 3 to 4 minutes and your opinions are very important to
us.")
Q.1
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president? (IF "DON'T
KNOW", ENTER AS CODE 9. IF DEPENDS," PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall, do you approve or
disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president? IF STILL "DEPENDS," ENTER AS
CODE 9.)
41
Approve
52
Disapprove
7
Don't know/Refused
100
176
Q.2
Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item,
tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all
closely. (READ AND ROTATE LIST) How closely did you follow news stories about ... (READ
SCALE IF NECESSARY)?
Not
Very
Fairly
Not too
at all
Closely
Closely
Closely
Closely
DK
a.
The civil war in Bosnia
9
29
39
23
* = 100
b.
Passage of the crime bill
in Congress
30
38
19
13
* = 100
c.
The IRA cease-fire
announcement
8
24
37
31
* = 100
d.
Discussion of a U.S.
invasion of Haiti
23
37
26
14
* = 100
e.
The Clinton
Administration's health
care reform proposals
32
41
18
9
* = 100
f.
The World Population
Conference in Cairo
9
20
33
38
* = 100
g.
The baseball strike
13
21
28
38
* = 100
h.
The flight of Cuban
refugees
29
43
18
10
* = 100
i.
The OJ Simpson case
30
33
22
15
* = 100
j.
News about the candidates
and election campaigns
in your state
19
34
29
18
* = 100
177
Q.3
In your opinion, are the news organizations you are familiar with being fair or unfair to the Clinton
administration?
67
Fair
26
Unfair
7
Don't know/Refused
100
ASK OF THOSE WHO ANSWERED "2" TO Q.50 IN ORIGINAL SURVEY:
Q.4
In the earlier survey, you said that the news media generally gets in the way of society solving its
problems. Can you tell me the most important reason WHY you feel this way? ACCEPT MULTIPLE
RESPONSES.
36
Biased/Slanted/One-sided reporting/Views/Offer their own opinions views
30
Sensationalism/Media blows things out of proportion
9
Over-emphasize the negative/Sensationalize the negative
9
Distort the facts/Truth
7
Too selective in disseminating information/Write only what they want the public to know
5
Don't check their facts/Facts aren't accurate
5
Don't get all the facts/Not in-depth reporting
5
Too much information/Too many issues presented at once
2
All other reporting of information mentions
14
Don't know/Refused
100 (N = 1084)
178
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS (N=1201)
Q.5
If the 1994 elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican
Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?
Q.6
As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat?
48
Republican -- GO TO Q.7
46
Democratic -- GO TO Q.7
1
Other candidate (VOL.)
5
Don't know/Refused
100
ASKED ORIGINALLY OF FORM 1 RESPONDENTS ONLY:
Q.7
As I read some pairs of opposite phrases, tell me which ONE best reflects your impressions of Bill Clinton
so far. (First,) does Bill Clinton impress you as... (READ AND ROTATE)
a.
Trustworthy or NOT trustworthy?
47
Trustworthy
49
Not trustworthy
3
Neither particularly (VOL.)
1
Don't know/Refused
100
b.
Able to get things done or NOT able to get things done?
41
Able to get things done
54
Not able to get things done
5
Neither particularly (VOL.)
100
179
Q.8
Who would you say is most responsible for things not getting done in Washington these days, the Clinton
Administration, the Republicans in Congress, the Democrats in Congress, or the news media?
16
Clinton Administration
30
Republicans in Congress
17
Democrats in Congress
12
The News Media
16
Other (VOL.)
9
Don't know/Refused
100
NOW ON ANOTHER SUBJECT...
Q.9
As you may know, health care reform has not passed in Congress so far. Who do you think is most
responsible for this the Clinton Administration, the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in
Congress?
15
Clinton Administration
49
Republicans in Congress
11
Democrats in Congress
16
All/Combination (VOL.)
9
Don't know/Refused
100
Q.10
All other things being equal, would you be likely to vote FOR or AGAINST a member of Congress who
did each of the following...? (READ ITEMS, IN ORDER)
Vote
Vote
Won't
For
Against
Affect
DK
a.
Supported major
health care reform
62
28
4
6 = 100
b.
Opposed major health
care reform
31
57
4
8 = 100
180
ON A DIFFERENT SUBJECT.
Q.11
Comparing your present family circumstances with those when you were a child, would you say you are
better off, or worse off, than your parents were then?
72
Better off
21
Worse off
6
Same (VOL.)
1
Don't know/Refused
100
IF RESPONDENT HAS CHILDREN ("1" TO Q.D4 IN ORIGINAL SURVEY):
Q.12
Looking to the future, when your children grow up do you think they will be better off or worse off than
you are now? If no children, "2" or "9" to Q.D4, ASK: Looking to the future, do you think most
children in this country will grow up to be better off or worse off than their parents?
38
Better off
55
Worse off
2
Same (VOL.)
5
Don't know/Refused
100
Q.13
How do you feel about the problem of low moral and ethical standards in this country today. Do you think
this problem is ABOUT THE SAME as it has been, that the country is MAKING PROGRESS in this area,
or that the country is LOSING GROUND in this area?
10
About the same
9
Making progress
80
Losing ground
1
Don't know/Refused
100
181
Q.14
Please tell me whether you completely agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or completely disagree with
the following statement:
Many people today think they can get ahead without working hard and making sacrifices.
16
Completely agree
38
Mostly agree
24
Mostly disagree
21
Completely disagree
1
Don't know/Refused
100
BASED ON THOSE WHO ARE EMPLOYED:
Q.15
In your current job, what kind of work do you do? (RECODE VERBATIM RESPONSE; PROBE FOR
CLARITY.)
25
Profession Worker - lawyer, doctor, scientist, teacher, engineer, nurse (RN), accountant,
programmer, musician
14
Skilled Tradesman - printer, baker, tailor, electrician, machinist, linesman, plumber, carpenter,
mechanic, etc.
13
Clerical or Office Worker - typist, secretary, postal clerk, telephone operator, computer operator,
bank clerk, etc.
9
Service Worker - policeman/woman, fireman/woman, waiter or waitress, maid, nurse's aide,
attendant, barber, hairstylist, etc.
8
Laborer - plumber's helper, construction worker, longshoreman, garbage man/woman, or other
physical work
8
Manager - store manager, sales manager, office manager
7
Semi-skilled Worker - operates machine in factory, assembly line worker, truck driver, taxi or
bus driver, etc.
6
Sales Worker - clerk in store, door-to-door salesman
3
Business owner
1
Manufacturer's Representative - outside salesperson, sales rep.
5
Other
1
No answer/Refused
100 (N = 1001)
182
Q.16
What kind of company or organization do you work for? That is, what does it make or do?
12
Manufacturing
12
Educational, social services/membership organizations
9
Health services
8
Construction
8
Retail trade
6
Transportation/Public Utilities/Communication
6
Finance/Insurance/Real estate
5
Business services/law
3
Agricultural services/Forestry/Fishing
2
Wholesale trade
*
Mining
22
Other services
4
Other/unclassified
3
No answer/Refused
100 = 1001)
183
STILL LOOKING FOR CHANGE:
AMERICA'S ASSESSMENT OF
THE CLINTON PRESIDENCY AT 500 DAYS
Analysis of voter focus groups conducted in
Mount Laurel, New Jersey; Akron, Ohio; and Miami, Florida
June 1994
Focus groups designed and conducted by
Peter D. Hart and Geoffrey D. Garin
Report written by Guy D. Molyneux
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
ii
OVERVIEW AND HIGHLIGHTS
As a whole, the focus group discussions reveal a complex political landscape, one
that is different in critical respects from that suggested by the current conventional
political wisdom. While the focus group findings do demonstrate that President
Clinton and the Democratic Party face substantial challenges today, at the same
time they reveal considerable underlying strengths. Even more important, the
discussions help illuminate voters' framework for evaluating this presidency--a
framework that appears to have less to do with the President's issue agenda or
his personal behavior than with the fundamental questions of performance and
leadership. This, in turn, points the way toward some clear, if difficult, steps
President Clinton needs to take in order to strengthen his standing among the
American people.
The key findings from the research are summarized in the following points:
*
The two principal forces that shaped the 1992 election--economic
anxiety and anger at the political process--are still at work today.
A third factor--deep concern over social breakdown and moral
decline--is the other major dimension defining the current political
environment.
Bill Clinton was elected to bring change to Washington and to
America. This was the hope and expectation of those who voted for
him in November 1992, and even of some who did not. Today,
most voters do not yet see the kinds and scope of change they
were promised. Their dominant feeling about this, however,
tends to be disappointment, rather than outright rejection.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
iii
The public's doubts about the Clinton Administration relate to
performance more than to issue positions or ideology. Voters
are hard pressed to name a single noteworthy accomplishment of
the Administration at this point, and have little sense that the White
House has moved effectively to strengthen the economy--the
centerpiece of Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign. At the same time, few
voters voice concern about taxes or big government, and those who
do are primarily conservative voters who are not truly available to
President Clinton in any case. The bottom line is that the public feels
Bill Clinton has accomplished too little of his agenda, rather than too
much.
The much-discussed "character" problem for President Clinton is
real, but this issue has been badly misunderstood in many quarters.
Voters are concerned about the quality of Bill Clinton's political
leadership, not his personal morality. They would like to have
confidence in his public honesty, but fear that he is instead a typical
politician--no worse than most, but also no better--who will say
whatever his audience wants to hear. As voters struggle to assess
and understand what they perceive as the President's broader failure
to bring about promised change, the negative information they hear
regarding his honesty and character seems to "fill in the blanks" and
influence their evaluation process.
Voters today express concerns about Bill Clinton's "political
backbone," and they have little notion of what his core political
principles are. This finding is of critical importance in understanding
attitudes toward this president and his leadership, because, though
voters feel strongly that the country needs a better sense of
direction, they cannot say what Bill Clinton has done toward that end
nor can they discern in what direction he is taking the nation.
Whatever doubts voters may have about the President and his
ultimate success, however, the Republicans appear to have
gained little public ground during Bill Clinton's first 500 days.
While the GOP's language of traditional values is attractive to many
voters, most see Republicans as the party of the status quo in an
era of needed change. Few participants think the country would be
better off today if George Bush or another Republican were
president.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
iv
*
The large majority of Clinton voters are still with the President,
despite their disappointment with the pace of change. They
believe he sincerely is trying to effect change--something even many
non-Clinton voters concede--and feel he may still succeed. Most of
them suggest Bill Clinton is still a long way from losing their electoral
support.
*
In the end, most voters have an open mind regarding Bill Clinton
and his potential for success. Though they may be dissatisfied
with the story line so far, voters have not closed the book on the
Clinton presidency. What they are looking for is the kind of effective
political leadership that they hoped they were getting in November
1992--and that they believe is the answer to the economic and moral
decline they see in America today.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
1
AMERICANS' VIEW OF THE NATION
We began each focus group discussion by asking participants how things are
going in America today. The news is not good. While some voters say they are
"satisfied" or "optimistic," words such as "dismal," "concerned," "stressed," and
"discouraging" emerge much more often. Most people feel the country is in
trouble, and many are pessimistic about its prospects. Their national weather
forecast may not call for rain, but "mostly cloudy" is a frequent prediction, and
though people are not necessarily upset or angry, they are decidedly downbeat.
These reactions are consistent with national polling results. Fully half of all
Americans now believe the nation is "on the wrong track," while just a third feel
things are "generally headed in the right direction." While this is hardly the level
of dissatisfaction recorded in the spring of 1992, when seven in ten Americans said
the country was on the wrong track, it is significantly higher than was the case in
January 1993 (when 47% of Americans felt things were moving in the right
direction and just 27% said the nation was off course), when hopes and
expectations for Bill Clinton's presidency were at their height. So, while the
public's dissatisfaction is not at the level that brought down the Bush
Administration, it is very substantial and heading upward.
Why do people feel so negative? Three dominant themes surface in the
focus groups, which together define today's political playing field: economic
anxiety, a sense of moral decline, and deep political cynicism. Overall, people feel
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
2
the nation is adrift--or is headed in unsettling directions to the extent that it is
following any course--and is lacking in effective leadership.
Despite the country's economic upturn, many voters continue to feel the
same kinds of economic pressures as they did in 1992. In Miami, among those
in the lowest-income group, concerns about unemployment and health care
surface frequently. When we asked voters where they would take Bill Clinton to
give him a sense of how the economy was doing in their community, they suggest
showing him a bridge under which homeless people live or taking him to
Overtown--one of the city's poorest neighborhoods--and to a house shared by four
single working people who cannot afford to live on their own.
Even among the upper-income New Jersey voters, economic anxiety is
apparent. One woman, a college graduate and accountant, puts it this way:
The middle class is shrinking; there are more poor people. It's just
so hard to make it. I have a two-year-old son, and I'm trying to think
about putting him through school. I want to put him in a good
school, but I don't know how I'm going to afford it. It's just so hard
to make it, especially in New Jersey.
In every focus group, voters articulate a sense that the nation is
"degenerating" or "going downhill" in terms of its moral values. An Akron man
notes that "drugs have invaded our country, the family is breaking down, and our
country is losing any moral anchor that it had." Survey data suggest that this
sentiment has become increasingly prevalent since 1992, and is now a momentous
political factor.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
3
In the May NBC/WSJ survey, for example, we asked Americans to explain
in their own words why they felt the country was off on the wrong track. Two
years ago, the same question elicited almost nothing but economic concerns;
today, however, issues such as drugs, family breakdown, and violent crime are
even more salient than are economic factors. In fact, it is the fear of violent crime
that most seems to drive this feeling of moral decay.
In addition to this sense of economic and moral decline, participants feel
America's political system is badly broken. They express almost no trust in
political leaders. To them, public officeholders never seem to get anything done,
instead pursuing their own personal interests--either in the form of outright
corruption or narrowly partisan agendas that promote gridlock rather than action--
rather than what is best for the country, a phenomenon that voters find
enormously frustrating:
Everybody is out for themselves. They're not looking out for the
good of everybody else. They just want to know, "What am I going
to get out of this? Am I going to be reelected?" And then you get
in, and you spend the next four years trying to get reelected.
When asked what percentage of the members of Congress who went to
Washington with good intentions still "have their hearts in the right place," Miami
participants offer responses that average to a meager 9%.
We offered focus group participants the hypothetical opportunity to add a
message to their ballot in the next congressional election. The loud and clear
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
4
sentiments, expressed by Miami voters and echoed by those in the two other
groups, are Remember why you're there, and Keep your promises.
Concern about the future, even more than dissatisfaction with the present,
seems to be what most troubles the Americans with whom we spoke. Many
express the feeling that the nation is either directionless or sliding downward. An
Akron woman thinks of the country as at a "standstill," noting that "there are all
these problems, and nothing is being done about [them]." An Akron man
observes, "We are suffering from an identity crisis" as a nation, and a New Jersey
voter offers this characterization of the nation today:
We are going downhill. There seems to be hopelessness in the
people; they don't seem to have the goals they used to have.
I think we're a country without a vision. I see aimlessness.
Many voters feel that America was stronger in the past because people had
better values, especially a "willingness to work hard and invest in the future," as
one man puts it. "Theyweren't so focused on immediate gratification." There also
was a collective sense of confidence that is lacking today, according to these
voters. "When Kennedy said, 'We're going to send a man to the moon,'
everybody believed that could be done," recalls a New Jersey man. "Andthat's
why it was done, because everybody believed in it. That's all you need. If the
people believe in it, then it's a done deal."
Voters indicate that it is political leaders who should provide the sense of
direction and common purpose that America needs, but participants do not see
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
5
this kind of leadership evidenced in the political process today. They had hoped
that President Clinton might be the answer, but they are not sure now whether he
is up to the challenge.
RATING THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION
The public's responses to President Clinton and his administration vary widely.
Some voters in the focus groups admire Bill Clinton and his efforts, while others
feel quite negative. Most voters fall between these extremes, offering a mixed
assessment.¹
Even among the people who hold mixed or positive views, however, there
are real misgivings about the first 500 days of the Clinton presidency. We would
characterize the overall feeling as one of disappointment rather than rejection,
and the cause of this disappointment is clear: voters feel they elected Bill Clinton
to bring change to Washington and to America, but do not yet see the change
they were promised.
We began our discussions of President Clinton in the groups by posing this
question: "On Election Day 1992, what was your first thought when you learned
that Bill Clinton had won?" Not unexpectedly, some Bush and Perot voters recall
1 In all three groups, we found some participants--usually very socially conservative people--
who feel strongly negative toward Bill Clinton. These individuals are, in nearly every case, people
who voted for George Bush in 1992. Since no president can hope to gain everyone's support,
and while we occasionally will take note of the strong anti-Clinton voters' views, we have focused
our analysis here principally on Clinton voters, Perot voters, and those Bush voters who seem at
least open to the possibility of supporting Bill Clinton. Together, these are the members of the
electorate who will determine whether the President succeeds in implementing his agenda and,
ultimately, whether he wins reelection.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
6
feeling upset or disappointed. But Clinton voters, as well as some participants
who had voted against Bill Clinton, say they felt hopeful that day. More
specifically, they felt hopeful that change was coming: "I was hoping for a change,
and the way he promised it, it sounded good," recalls a Miami voter, whose feeling
is echoed by a woman in the New Jersey session: "I was hopeful that he could
bring about some changes." Another voter asserts, "We sent the Republicans a
message that things were going to be different."
Change was the hope and expectation in November 1992, but today there
is general agreement that Bill Clinton has not yet wrought that change. Even his
supporters have little to point to in this regard, saying perhaps that he needs more
time. Some think there have been minor changes and others see none at all, but
very few voters are satisfied with the progress to date. A participant in Akron
notes, "I thought a change was needed; we needed a new direction; we needed
more leadership. We need what Clinton claimed, and SO far not much has been
accomplished." The disillusionment also is articulated by the New Jersey voter
who insists, "He has not done anything. He said that he has done a lot, and he
has talked a lot about his health care [plan], but no one really knows what it is
about. He wants to do a lot, and maybe he is taking on too much." One Clinton
voter in Miami puts it simply: "I'm still waiting on a change."
Voters' thirst for change has not abated, nor has it been quenched.
This state of unmet expectations, more than anything else, sets the
parameters for the public's assessment of Bill Clinton's presidency.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
7
Voters in our groups give varied assessments of the President's
performance. Asked to grade Bill Clinton, some participants award him a "B" or
an "A," and some a "D" or an "F." A sizable plurality, however, send the President
home with a "C" report card--middle-range grades consistent with his current
approval ratings (52% in the latest NBC/WSJ survey).
In a sense though, this "average" mark appears to be an implicit average
of two separate assessments: effort and accomplishment. Many participants
volunteer that Bill Clinton deserves an "A" for effort. Even people who do not like
him generally concede that he is working hard, and most voters feel that he wants
to do the right things. But they fault his effectiveness. An Akron voter who gives
the President a "C+" offers an explanation typical of the participants: "I give him
an 'A' for effort, [but] he has been rendered ineffective in a lot of ways. Things are
out of his control."
The bad news is that, while the President earns an "A" for effort, an overall
rating of "C" suggests deep problems on the performance front. Indeed, one of
the most striking features of the three focus groups is people's almost complete
inability to name a major accomplishment of Bill Clinton. This is true even among
Clinton supporters. When asked to name the high point of Bill Clinton's first 500
days, people have genuine difficulty providing an answer. No single
accomplishment comes readily to people's minds.
Particularly troubling for this Administration is that the economy is rarely
mentioned in discussions of President Clinton's efforts. Voters are of varying
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
8
opinions on the state of the economy: some see recent improvement, though they
remain cautious or concerned about the future; others simply do not see any
progress. Those who do perceive improvement are loathe to give the President
credit, saying that recovery was already underway when he took office. Especially
striking is how little awareness people have of the Administration's efforts on the
economic front. Some voters believe that Bill Clinton has not even addressed the
issue of the economy.
Few voters seem to recall the 1993 budget deal, for example, much less
associate this program with any subsequent economic upturn. Perhaps the
greatest irony of the first 500 days is that the Administration stepped up to the
plate, made some tough choices to achieve meaningful deficit reduction, and then
received essentially no acknowledgement from the public for hitting solidly and
safely. Though concern about the budget deficit does seem to have eased--it is
mentioned only very infrequently--there is little indication that people recognize that
progress has been made.
In Akron, the moderator prompted the group by reminding them of the 1992
phrase, "It's the economy, stupid." This rings a bell, but still fails to elicit any sense
of post-election action. A couple of people recall the NAFTA vote, without
enthusiasm, but otherwise participants draw a blank. One voter notes that the
economy had indeed "been one of his big issues during the election," but that,
come to think of it, "[the President] hasn't really done anything about it." A strong
Clinton supporter says simply, "I haven't heard much on it."
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
9
As far as voters can determine, strengthening the economy--the centerpiece
of his 1992 campaign--is not a major priority on Bill Clinton's agenda. National
polls confirm the startling finding that even as a Democratic president presides
over an economic recovery, the public has no more faith in the Democrats'
capacity to manage the economy than it does in the Republicans' ability to do SO.
For an administration that came to power on a wave of economic discontent, and
that sees its central strategic mission as reassuring the middle class that it
understands their economic situation, this is discouraging news.
The President's unknown or untested aptitude as a military leader provokes
some degree of worry, in the event that the nation were to face a crisis, and this
is the one area in which voters seem to feel George Bush would be better were
he president today. The larger context surrounding these misgivings reveals,
however, that voters are essentially in an isolationist mood, and therefore do not
consider foreign policy and the President's military role a top priority. "I think Bush
was very good internationally, but we don't need that type of person; we need a
United States person," is the way a New Jersey voter puts it. A woman in the
Miami group elaborates: "I don't think [Clinton] has the military background to
handle it. But--he was elected to accomplish different things."
Indeed, some voters also seem to feel that President Clinton's tentativeness
in approaching potential conflict situations abroad--the subject of considerable
criticism in both Democratic and Republican circles--is particularly appropriate to
the public's current mood. "I think the country does not want to see any military
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
10
action from him and he feels that, so he is being supercautious on certain issues.
He's up against the whole country not wanting any kind of war. I think he's all
right in that respect. I think he's cautious because we want him to be."
If voters have trouble coming up with major achievements of the
Administration, they are generally familiar with its current agenda. Virtually
everyone knows of Bill Clinton's drive to reform the health care system, and most
applaud his tackling of this problem. But there is a great deal of uncertainty
regarding the specifics of his plan, and there are considerable doubts as to
whether he has gotten it right yet. In one focus group, a discussion of the Clinton
plan quickly devolves into a discussion of welfare, and it becomes clear that most
of the people around the table believe that the essence of the health care plan is
to extend health benefits to the non-working poor. While many express support
for the goal of universal coverage, only a few seem to see this plan as having the
potential to help them or other working people.
The President's support for welfare reform that would "end welfare as we
know it" is something that voters seem to be both aware and supportive of. Some
also indicate awareness of Bill Clinton's push for crime legislation. From these
signs, it would seem that the President's efforts to position himself as a "new
Democrat" have succeeded. Once again, however, the question comes back to
performance. "The first positive thing was when he first became president and
expressed his views on welfare and training and all that," observes a Miami
woman, who adds the caveat, "I'm still waiting."
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
11
Sometimes public opinion analysts can learn as much from what people do
not say in focus groups as from what they do. Especially notable in these groups
is how rarely people mention concerns over taxes or big government (and those
who do are generally Republican voters whose support Bill Clinton could never
reasonably hope to get anyway). Just as voters seem unaware of the deficit
reduction in the 1993 budget deal, they exhibit virtually no memory of the tax
increases included in that legislation, so roundly attacked by Republicans as the
"largest in history." Those tax increases have not registered significantly with
participants, and certainly have not provoked any kind of anger.
More generally, relatively few voters voice the types of criticisms offered
regularly by Republican critics. No one volunteers, for example, that Bill Clinton
is an out-of-touch liberal or that he wants to coddle criminals. A few Republican
voters say they think he is too fond of big government in general, but these
objections are infrequent and raised without much passion.
In sum, voters do not seem to feel that Bill Clinton has the wrong agenda
for America. Instead, they are frustrated that--as seems so often the case in
politics--the President currently seems incapable of implementing that agenda.
BILL CLINTON THE MAN
While there is rough consensus regarding President Clinton's performance in
office--voters believe the President is trying hard, but is not getting much
accomplished-impressions of Bill Clinton the man are sharply polarized.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
12
In describing Bill Clinton, some Akron participants offer such phrases as "a
good man in office," "progress," or "genuinely concerned about the country."
Others reply in a distinctly different tone: "crisis of character," "orchestrated and
difficult to trust," or, simply, "untrustworthy." The same distinct split appears when
they try to characterize Bill Clinton's values: "a family type" and "hard-working" are
the adjectives that come to mind for some participants, while "power-hungry" or
"valueless" are the appellations offered by others.
In two of the three focus groups, Mount Laurel and Akron, the negative
sentiments are generally expressed more often and more forcefully than are the
positive ones. This is not surprising; in our experience, negative opinions often
easily overwhelm the positive in political discussions. Whether in the theater of
talk-radio or the research setting of a focus group facility, the cynical comment
seems to "trump" a more idealistic notion, and the pessimistic view always seems
more "realistic" than does the upbeat assessment. Because the individuals who
feel fairly positive toward the President tend to retreat in the face of sharply
negative assessments, it becomes easy to take away from the sessions an
exaggerated sense of the breadth of hostility toward Bill Clinton. In our opinion,
some analysts and commentators have made this mistake in assessing the
President's public standing.
At the same time, we suspect that this dominance of the negative view may
often reflect the reality of political discussion as it occurs across America these
days. It is hard to overstate the degree of cynicism toward and disgust with
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
13
politics and politicians. And it is of some consequence that critics of the President
feel far more passionate and assertive than do those who support him. Bill Clinton
certainly would be in a stronger position today if more average Americans felt
good enough about his character and performance to stand up for him in the
conversations that take place daily in the nation's coffee shops, laundromats, and
living rooms.
In terms of Bill Clinton's personal strengths, common themes emerge in all
three groups. The President is widely credited with making a serious effort to
tackle the important issues facing the country, something voters feel his immediate
predecessors in office did not do. Voters also feel that he brings both great
energy and keen intelligence to those efforts--a combination they also have not
seen in many years. As well, they have a strong sense that he cares about
average people and their lives.
On the negative side, some voters are deeply offended by what they
perceive to be Bill Clinton's low moral standards, citing Paula Jones' charges or
the Whitewater issue. These impressions generally come from deeply conservative
people who almost certainly would never vote for a Democratic president.
Other voters draw a crucial line between personal and public behavior.
They are concerned about the latter, but not the former. "There are things with his
personal life that people can poke at. Ultimately, I am sure that they are going to
prove that he had an affair, but that is not my concern. My concern is what he is
going to do for this country. I personally am against that type of behavior, but I
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
14
am not going to judge the man." A New Jersey voter speaks to the Whitewater
allegations: "Everyone makes mistakes financially. My question is whether there
were illegalities involved." Many voters blame the media for all the attention given
the Jones and Whitewater issues. Even a Bush voter expresses anger that The
Star and the National Enquirer seem to be driving the nation's agenda.
The Paula Jones story and other personal matters ultimately seem to be of
limited interest to most of these voters. Whitewater is potentially a different
problem, because it involves more public activities. Voters do not now see any
clear evidence that the Clintons engaged in any illegal or unethical financial
activities, however, and as long as this remains the case, Bill Clinton's public
standing is unlikely to be seriously harmed.
We asked the New Jersey focus group participants where they would like
to be if they could be a 'fly on the wall" and listen in on Bill Clinton unobserved,
to gain the kind of insight in which they are most interested. Although this group
is by far the most negative toward the President, no participants express any
voyeuristic interest in Bill Clinton's bedroom or hotel rooms. Instead, participants
want to see him in a Cabinet meeting or just before a press conference; in other
words, they wish to understand how he goes about doing his job.
Nevertheless, the President does confront a serious and important
"character" problem with the voters. But this has been widely mischaracterized in
the press and the political community as principally a question of personal
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
15
morality. Our research suggests that this is better understood as public doubts
about Bill Clinton's capacity for effective political leadership.
For one thing, all the attention to scandals and charges reinforces people's
doubts about President Clinton's ability to get the job done. At a minimum, the
innuendoes are a major distraction. One Clinton supporter in New Jersey raises
this concern:
All that has been focused on is this stuff that happened five years
ago, and I don't see anything happening with the country. I just
hear about his past life and/or maybe affairs. How can the man
focus on what he is supposed to do
if he is being sidetracked
with all this other stuff? You are hoping that he can do the best job,
but I don't see how he possibly can with all this other stuff.
Much more important, though, are the doubts raised in voters' minds
regarding Bill Clinton's honesty and trustworthiness in the public arena. In our
focus groups, one major concern about the President stands out, emerging in
every session and being voiced even by some participants who voted for him:
voters are not confident that they can trust Bill Clinton to be straight with
them. The NBC/WSJ survey underscores the breadth of this problem: only 26%
of the public rates Bill Clinton well on the quality of "telling the truth," while 43% rate
him poorly.
Many people in the focus groups describe Bill Clinton's level of honesty as
that of a typical politician: no worse, but also no better. Given their great cynicism
toward politicians, this is a discouraging assessment. The problem is that they do
not see Bill Clinton as someone who really speaks his mind or who will tell the
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
16
nation what it may need to hear, if doing so will have a political downside. A New
Jersey teacher says that although President Clinton "gave the country some hope,
he doesn't have a direction. I consider him a 'yes' man; he just does
everything that people want him to do." Many other participants express a sense
that Bill Clinton frequently is guilty of overpromising, which they think gets him into
trouble: "I think that politicians do come in--I think Bill Clinton did this--and make
all these unrealistic promises that he now realizes he cannot do. It's basically
because people are dishonest."
Just as voters have trouble identifying any notable Clinton accomplishments,
so too do they seem--even after a year and a half--not to have formed a clear
image of this president. Only scattered images are offered when these voters try
to recall the defining moments of Bill Clinton's term so far, and are often from very
recent events such as the Nixon and Onassis funerals. It seems there has not yet
been an event or action that has captured the essence of Bill Clinton for voters.
The danger in this is that, in the absence of any clear sense of what he is about
as a leader, the President's popularity will continue to depend entirely on the "what
have you done for me lately" syndrome. His public standing then rises and falls
with the news of the week.
Exacerbating this problem, of course, is the general atmosphere of political
cynicism within which Bill Clinton must operate. Politicians are automatically
suspect, and people will assume the worst unless they have clear evidence to the
contrary. Some voters already see in President Clinton (or project onto him) the
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
17
very embodiment of what is most wrong with politics and the nation today. As is
articulated by an Akron man, it is that "the nation votes for leaders that it sees like
them, and we [now] have a man in office who tells the truth when it is convenient.
I honestly don't know when I hear him speak if I am hearing the truth or hearing
what he wants me to hear. I think the nation as a whole is going in that direction.
There is no backbone anymore."
As voters try to come to grips with Bill Clinton's failure to achieve change,
they often reach for the word, "backbone." This term implies not only honesty, but
also strength and convictions--a willingness to fight for what one believes in, even
in the face of powerful opposition or great risks. They see this as an essential
quality in effective leaders: it takes backbone to face down political adversaries,
to rally the nation to a common cause, or to fight against special interests on
behalf of the entire nation. Unfortunately, many voters do not today see this critical
leadership ingredient in their current president.
Indeed, when we asked the people in Miami what kind of backbone Bill
Clinton has, their answers include "sawdust," "papier-maché," and "clay." When
participants are asked to contemplate which qualities Bill Clinton could usefully
take from previous presidents, a New Jersey man suggests "the guts of Truman,"
while a Miami man wants to "make him more of a 'The buck stops here' kind of
guy." In addition, when considering the question of whether Bill Clinton still could
become a great president, those who answer "no" express these same types of
concerns in explaining the obstacles to greatness. "I would say 'no' only because
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
18
I don't think he has strong convictions," notes one woman, and another voter
asserts, "I don't believe that he could become a great president. If we think back
to who we consider great presidents, it is the ones that take a moral stand,
whether we agree with them or not. It is the ones that take the stand and fight for
what they believe in; those are the great ones."
The passage of NAFTA is an interesting exception to this assessment--one
that proves the larger rule. While voters do not generally express any great
enthusiasm for NAFTA as a policy, several participants cite this as a case in which
Bill Clinton demonstrated some conviction. In that fight, they saw the President
stake out a firm position, take on strong opponents (Ross Perot and congressional
leaders), and prevail--demonstrating exactly their model of effective presidential
leadership. In voters' minds, the NAFTA victory pointed to the broader possibility
that change was coming, that Bill Clinton was going to be able to break gridlock
and achieve his goals. This explains why the President's approval ratings went up
considerably at the time, even though public support for the treaty was fairly
modest. Tellingly, however, NAFTA stands nearly alone when voters are asked to
recall an example of the President displaying strong convictions.
In addition to helping a president achieve legislative or policy victories,
strong convictions have another value: they give voters a fuller sense of where
their president hopes to take the country. If Americans are then called upon to
make sacrifices or to be patient, this deeper understanding of their leader's vision
makes it easier to comprehend why. But today, voters have little sense of what
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
19
core political principles Bill Clinton holds dear or what vision of America animates
him and drives him forward. Just as voters cannot say what Bill Clinton has done,
neither can they say where he is taking the nation. And this makes them uneasy,
for it is precisely a clear sense of direction, one that can unite the efforts of the
American people, that people most want from their president today.
AMERICANS' ADVICE TO THE PRESIDENT
Toward the end of each focus group, we asked voters what would have to happen
in order for Bill Clinton to gain their vote if they had voted against him in 1992, or
to lose their vote if they had been a Clinton voter. Almost all the Clinton voters,
significantly, say they are still behind the President and expect to be again next
time. Most indicate that things would have to go very badly--several say the
situation would have to get "drastic"--for them to abandon Bill Clinton. Despite
their disappointments, then, Bill Clinton's voters are still with him.
These participants are with him primarily, it seems, because they believe he
sincerely is trying to make change happen--a point even many non-Clinton voters
concede--and they hope he can still succeed. Voicing a feeling common to many
participants, an Akron man proclaims, "As long as he tries to confront issues and
move the country forward, he will keep my vote," and a woman in that group says
the only way Bill Clinton could lose her vote is if "he stops the change."
The issue of change also remains an important frame of reference for voters
in comparing this Democratic president to the Republicans. Most of the focus
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
20
group participants see the GOP as being very much a party of the status quo, with
little interest in change. For most of the Republican voters, that is just fine. They
generally are satisfied with the state of the nation or are at least convinced that
anything government does to address problems will only make things worse.
But most people do not agree: despite voters' substantial skepticism
toward government and their cynicism about politics, in the end, they say that
attempts must be made to solve the very serious problems they see around them.
Participants also admire Bill Clinton's willingness to face up to these challenges.
An Akron accountant, somewhat favorably inclined toward Clinton, sums up this
sentiment aptly:
I believe that there are significant changes that need to take place,
and the Democratic Party traditionally is the party of change.
Republicans just want to maintain the status quo, and that was
Bush's theme during the campaign. I happen to think [there are]
major problem[s]
and the Democratic Party is the one that will
undertake those changes, just as Bill Clinton has decided to take on
the health care and welfare problems.
This contrast should become more important as the country moves toward
1996. While voters now judge Bill Clinton mostly against the expectations he
raised in 1992, voters in 1996 will evaluate him against an actual nominee from the
party of the status quo. Significantly, few of the Democratic or Independent voters
in our focus groups seem at all eager to trade in Bill Clinton for George Bush or
another Republican. Even those who have doubts about Bill Clinton do not
necessarily perceive that the political universe contains more attractive options.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
22
Show improvement in a few areas. Push one all the way through
and have the others following behind
If he could push these
things [crime and economy] through a little bit, and maybe finish one
of them.
Communicate conviction and honesty.
Try to be honest, and communicate more what he is doing and how
he is doing it.
When he says he is going to do something, do it. Be more decisive
about his decision-making.
Demonstrate that he is above reproach; restore his credibility.
Be strong; convince us of your convictions.
Although people are disappointed with the story line thus far, they are far
from closing the book on Bill Clinton. Most are reserving judgment; some are still
optimistic that he will bring change. Many feel torn in their assessment: they like
this president's energy and intelligence, but do not feel they can trust him as much
as they would like to. Voters also recognize that the problems President Clinton
is facing are substantial and long-standing, and many comment that both the
press and the public are far less respectful of the presidency than they once were.
These voters seem to consider the Clinton presidency a work in progress, and are
not yet sure how it will turn out in the end.
His success, voters believe, will be determined by whether he shows himself
to be a stronger leader than they have seen so far. Even a very conservative
young woman in Akron concedes that Bill Clinton could still be a great president,
if "he gets a backbone and uses it." What voters most want to see from Bill
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
23
Clinton are some occasions in which he tells the nation where he stands, faces
down his opponents, and comes out a winner in the end. Two George Bush
voters in New Jersey, one favorable toward Bill Clinton and one not, offer the
following as the scenario for how Bill Clinton might win their 1996 vote:
He has become more focused; he stands behind a particular issue;
he sees it all the way through and gets it done. He is strong in his
decisions: he says something, he does it, and he is not afraid of the
repercussions.
He would have to show that he could carry through something that
he proposes, something significant. Find an issue and push it
through.
Can Bill Clinton do that? The voters are not yet sure--but most still want him
to succeed. And they believe a lot is riding on the outcome. The Miami session
concluded with this advice from four Clinton voters, which encapsulates the
potential, the expectations, and the opportunity that await the President's
response:
Keep plugging away.
Get a little tougher.
This is the time to move.
Everybody is waiting.
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc.
The 1994 Elections
and Gender Gaps in
Economic Insecurity
Presentation of Findings
Overview
Elections
Democrats had trouble with white women, middle brow women,
married women, and boomer and senior women.
Women's turnout was down. In 1992, women made up 54% of the
electorate. In 1994, 51% with declines among white non-college
educated women.
Economic Insecurity and Money
Women were less likely to think the economy was in recovery and felt
worse off, not better.
Women worry about jobs and keeping up.
Men worry most about taxes and deficit.
Women also tend to worry more about health care and crime.
In 1992, both men and women worried that government had become
too intrusive.
The Democratic Coalition Has Frayed
Our Vote Among Key Groups Dropped Steeply From 1992 to 1994
(% Democrat minus % Republican)
1992
1994
Shift
Total
8
0
-8
Men
4
-8
-12
Women
10
8
-2
White men
-2
-24
-22
White women
2
-10
-12
No HS men
34
20
-14
No HS women
30
40
10
HS men
18
-4
-22
HS women
14
10
-4
Some coll men
2
-12
-14
Some coll women
10
0
-10
Coll men
-6
-10
-4
Coll women
6
6
0
Men 18-29
4
4
0
Women 18-29
16
12
-4
Men 30-44
2
-14
-16
Women 30-44
8
2
-6
Men 45-59
0
-8
-8
Women 45-59
8
12
4
Men 60+
12
-2
-14
Women 60+
14
6
-8
Married men
-4
-12
-8
Married women
2
-4
-6
Unmarried men
16
4
-12
Unmarried women
26
32
6
Voters Are Not Convinced That The
Economy Is In Recovery
Women Are More Pessimistic Than Men
50%
42%
38%
40%
36%
36%
34%
30%
30%
24%
21%
20%
17%
10%
0%
total
men
women
recovery
stagnating
recession/depression
-
I
121
III
Voters Are Not Convinced That The
Economy Is In Recovery
College Educated Women Are Most Pessimistic
60%
49%
50%
44%
40%
38%
36% 36%
36%
35%
32%
33%
29%
30%
21%
19%
20%
17%
17%
15%
10%
0%
total
coll men
no coll men
coll women
no coll women
recovery
stagnating
recession/depression
Compared to a Year Ago, Women Are
More Likely to Believe They Are
Financially Worse Off Than Are Men
50%
42%
38%
39%
40%
34%
32%
30%
30%
27%
26%
26%
20%
10%
0%
Better Off
Worse Off
About the Same
Men
Women
Less Educated Women
Women and Men Agree That The
Unemployment Rate Is Better -- Less
Educated Women Are Most Insecure
About Jobs
When you think about what is better about the economy, what comes to mind?
39%
Unemployment
36%
24%
15%
Interest rates
22%
26%
12%
Salaries
11%
13%
10%
Inflation
6%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Men
Women
Less Educated Women
Il
Currently Women Are More Worried Than Men
That Unemployment and Cost of Living Are Not
Going Well For the Economy -- Men Worry More
About Taxes and the Deficit
18%
Unemployment
23%
23%
10%
Cost of living
13%
15%
19%
Taxes
13%
12%
19%
Deficit
11%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Men
Women
Less Educated Women
Voters Believe Their Incomes Are
Declining
40%
28.2%
27.9%
22.8%
20%
17.3%
13.9%
14.8%
1.1%
-1.9°
0%
PDI (% rising-% declining)
-20%
-40%
-48.6%
-54.2%
-60%
-80%
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1994
IIII
Non-College Educated Women Are Most Apt
to Think Taxes Will Go Up -- Men That Jobs
Pay Little and Have No Confidence in the
Country's Leaders
A number of people worry that economic improvements will not last -- what worries you the most?
6%
Repub's will mess up
15%
12%
18%
Low-paying jobs
14%
14%
12%
Taxes will go up
14%
18%
14%
No conf. in leaders
6%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Men
Women
Less Educated Women
Thinking About Future Pressure on
Families --- All Worry About Taxes, Making
Ends Meet, and Good Jobs; Women Worry
Slightly More About Health Care
23%
Taxes
23%
23%
10%
Afford health care
14%
12%
9%
Making ends meet
10%
12%
10%
Good jobs for kids
8%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Men
Women
Less Educated Women
EST
Men Are More Likely to Believe Family
Values Is The Biggest Problem Facing the
Middle Class -- Non-College Educated
Women Are More Worried about Crime
30%
Family Values
25%
20%
19%
Gov't/special int's
19%
18%
14%
Rising crime
17%
21%
10%
Making ends meet
11%
12%
7%
Econ. future of kids
7%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Men
Women
Less Educated Women
18
Voters Have Fundamental Doubts
About Big Government
Government.
Should government do more to help families achieve the American
Dream, or should government stay out of these issues and let people
(agree minus disagree)
get ahead on their own?
80%
80
70
66%
65
61%
59
59%
60
60%
54
48
42
40 39
41
40
40%
30%
31%
27%
20
20%
0
Should work for fams
Problem not solution
0%
Interferes in lives
Help
Not help
Total
Men
Women
Total
Men
Women
Voters Have Fundamental Doubts
About Big Government
Government should
Government is too intrusive
80%
100%
78%
56%
80%
60%
41%
60%
44%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
Do more
Do less
1992
1994