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[07/21/1995 – 09/11/1995]
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[07/21/1995 – 09/11/1995]
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Tape Restoration Project (TRP) Emails
Tape Restoration Project (TRP) Email from the Default Bucket
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Clinton Presidential Records
Automated Records Management System
[EMAIL] and Tape Restoration Project [Email]
This is not a presidential record. This is used as an administrative
marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff.
This marker identifies a responsive email, already made available
within another collection.
Collection: 2007-0143-F Segment 2
Bucket: Default
Creation Date: 1995-07-21
Subject: Hotline 07/21/95
Creator: hotline [email protected]@INTERNET. at
CCROUTER@CCMAIL [ UNKNOWN ]
RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (TRP NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR: hotline ( [email protected]@INTERNET at CCROUTER@CCMAIL [ UNKNOWN ])
CREATION DATE/TIME:31-JUL-1995 12:13:00.00
SUBJECT: Hotline 07/31/95
TO: hotline ( (hotline [ UNKNOWN 1)
READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
Attached File: ATTACH
ATTACHMENT
1
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
TEXT:
Content-Type: text
--- Monday July 31, 1995 Vol. 8 No. 213 ---
## ## ###### ###### ## ## ## ## #####
### # # ### ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ### ## ##
# ### ## ###### ## ## ## ## ## ## # ## ###
# # # ### ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ### ##
## ## ###### ## ##### ## ## ## #####
--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS ---
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
3129 Mount Vernon Ave., Alexandria, VA 22305 703-518-4600
NO SUMMER VACATION (#9, 8)
SPOTLIGHT
WACO: House Waco co-chair
Zeliff (R-NH) says Clinton was
I
DALLAS MAY NOT BE DULL
"personally involved" in
decision to enter compound.
The pre-advance press for
WHITEWATER: ABC says Senate
I
Ross Perot's 8/11-13 United
I
hearings may bring "difficult
I
We Stand conference has
moments" for the First Lady.
begun. Scheduled to speak
House to focus on help then-
to Perot's group are the
Gov. Clinton gave to Whitewater
I
major GOP candidates for
partner McDougal.
pres. and congressional
I
leaders. DNC Co-chair Dodd
IN A BOX
I
will represent Clinton.
Will Dole be looking over his
3RD PARTY TALK: While
(right) shoulder -- at Gramm
reports will undoubtedly
when he offers his welfare plan
I
focus on the reception each
I
today before the NGA? (#13)
I
speaker receives, the real
I
I
news may occur away from
GOVERNING 101
I
the cameras. Some UWSA-ers
Failure to reach budget pact
|
are heading to Dallas, not
causes Pete Wilson to blame
I to hear speeches, but to
Assembly Dems for "welshing" on
launch a 3rd Party.
deal; Willie Brown calls Wilson
DID HE REALLY LEAVE?
a "flat-ass liar." (#2)
After losing over NAFTA,
S.F. GIANT: Brown wins
Perot lowered his profile.
"significant" mayoral
Many view Dallas as his
endorsement from county Dem
coming-out party for '96,
cmte. (#15)
but Perot's influence never
completely disappeared.
GANTT BUY ME LOVE (#20)
The Senate passed gift
Some key ex-Harvey Gantt
reform just last week.
backers move to Charles Sanders
Coincidence? (#5)
in NC Dem Senate skirmish.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Clearly, though, he cannot rest where he is, or Sen. Dole
will take over his functions long before next year's election."
-- DETROIT FREE PRESS editorial on Clinton's Bosnia policy, 7/28.
(c) 1995 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition
extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or
affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
APN Founders: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Managing Editor: Ken Rudin
Deputy Managing Editor: Jessica Barrows
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: James Kaleigh, Benjamin White,
Ronald Eckstein, Sally Buffalo
Editorial Assistants: Mike Sachs, Andrea Short
TABLE OF CONTENTS
WHITE HOUSE '96
CLINTON: Begala to leave Washington. (#1)
WILSON: As expected, Assembly holds up CA's budget. (#2)
DOLE: In NH, focusing on Clinton. (#3)
FROM THE FIELD: The weekend in Iowa and New Hamspshire. (#4)
PEROT: UWSA may be "panderthon"; a Powell-Perot ticket? (#5)
POWELL: TV talk focuses on a Republican run. (#6)
VEEPSTAKES: More Lungren talk. (#7)
NATIONAL BRIEFING
WHITEWATER: Depositions could give Hillary a rough ride. (#8)
WACO: Zeliff says Clinton "personally involved" in decision. (#9)
MEDICARE: Discord marks anniversary party. (#10)
PACKWOOD: Moynihan fights move for public hearings. (#11)
BOSNIA: Warfare gets treacherous in DC. (#12)
WELFARE REFORM: Clinton vs. Dole (and Dole vs. Gramm). (#13)
COVER TO COVER (#14)
CAMPAIGNS OF '95: San Francisco Mayor (#15); Balto. Mayor (#16)
50 STATE REPORT
COLORADO: Allard says he's 98% sure he'll run. (#17)
MISSOURI: Ex-NFL QB Kenney hoping to score in gov. race. (#18)
MONTANA: Latest poll says 30% would vote for Baucus again. (#19)
NORTH CAROLINA: Some ex-Gantt backers moving to Sanders. (#20)
TV MONITOR (#21)
???? OVERLOOKED ????
HELLION OR HERO
Self-described presidential candidate Robert Haines has resumed
his campaign in Manchester, NH, after his arrest for pointing a
gun at two men. Interestingly, Haines also recently made news
when he wrestled to the ground the gunman who shot several rounds
at the WH. - Courtesy Manchester UNION LEADER.
WHITE HOUSE '96
*1 CLINTON: BEGALA TO LEAVE WASHINGTON
Governing and running a re-election campaign are quite
different than taking on an incumbent president. Changes in
Pres. Clinton's political team reflect that. NEWSWEEK's Cohn &
Turque offer up four who are "in" and four who are "out" with the
"fickle" Clinton, noting "success is as ephemeral in politics as
it is in showbiz." The '92 campaign tended towards "liberal
populism," which does not suit a president attempting to stake
out the center. Those listed as out include:
o
Mandy Grunwald, who closed up shop and now works out of
her basement on "smaller accounts."
o
Stan Greenberg, whose contract with the DNC was "slashed"
after "failing to predict" the '94 GOP surge and was "judged
disloyal" for advising other Dems to distance themselves from
Clinton.
o Carville & Begala. Paul Begala, whose "decline" is
described as "perhaps the most poignant," as he devoted his life
to the campaign in '92 only to lose "favor when he counseled a
senatorial client to vote against Clinton's trade politicies in
'94 and for bad-mouthing then OMB Dir. Leon Panetta. Panetta
then cut Begala out of meetings when he became CoS. Begala is
returning to his native TX to join the PR firm of Public
Strategies, teach at the Univ. of TX and write a column for JFK
Jr.'s new political mag, "George." Carville voluntarily took a
"sabbatical" from Clinton and governance, but is "positioned to
play a major role" in the campaign (8/7 issue). First he will
finish his book defending liberalism and then "expects to work on
Clinton's reelection campaign" in '96 (Walsh/Melton/ Devroy, W.
POST, 7/30). Begala, on leaving the WH inner-circle: "I'm not
the best person to be in the middle of those internal fights.
I'm going to have a new life" (TIME, 8/7 issue).
THE "IN" CROWD:
Bob Squier, new media guru.
Dick Morris, who helps Clinton navigate in the center.
Doug Schoen, who Morris told Clinton was "the best
pollster in America."
o George Stephanopoulos, who is described by Press Sec.
Mike McCurry as the "main go-to guy," but Stephanopoulos is "left
out of key weekly political-strategy meetings with the boss."
Like Carville, Stephanopoulos is well-positioned for '96. The
Clintons are "famous for dropping aides abruptly when things
don't go well," so War Room alumni should take heart that they
might be brought back into the fold. "Consultant du-jour" Morris
has made several trips in and out of the President's favor
himself (NEWSWEEK, 8/7). According to U.S. NEWS' "Whispers,"
Morris told Clinton that his promise to balance the budget in ten
years (or nine as the case may be) has resulted in a "permanent
10-point increase in his approval rating." Also reported in
"Whispers" is Clinton's plan to name defeated Surgeon Geneneral
nominee Henry Foster to lead the "long awaited" campaign against
teen pregnancy (8/7 issue). Morton Kondracke predicts: "Mickey
Kantor moves from [USTR] to become White House Chief of Staff and
run the campaign for Bill Clinton in 1996" ("McLaughlin Group,"
7/29).
THE NON-EXISTENT COALITION: L.A. TIMES' McManus writes the
"strong liberal-centrist coalition" that Clinton is currently
trying to sew together "doesn't exist." Instead, the two groups
"remain at odds, constantly quarrelling over who was at fault for
the party's disastrous showing" in '94. Because of this, every
time Clinton makes a policy decision, "he upsets someone he's
counting on for help next year." Analyst Stu Rothenberg:
"Clinton needs everything he can get. He needs turnout, he needs
money, he needs foot soldiers to go door to door. He needs both
the base and the center. He needs to draw an inside straight.
He has to walk a tightrope You're going to see the
President targeting messages to groups in his base -- affirmative
action, liberal women, environmentalists -- while his overall
message is more centrist" (7/30).
MORE FAMILY VALUES: Speaking to the American Federation of
Teachers 7/28, Pres. Clinton outlined a 14-point "American Family
Values Agenda." The speech was intended to create a "platform to
compete with the reigning conservative manifestos." The speech
made clear that Clinton "would not let the Republicans alone
define family values" and also marked the first time that Clinton
indicated he "plans a campaign against tobacco use by young
people." Many of the points outlined by Clinton were "calls for
protection of existing Government programs and [admin.]
initiatives against cuts by the Republican Congress" (Mitchell,
N.Y. TIMES, 7/29).
NEW BUDGET NUMBERS: In VT for the annual NGA meeting, WH
CoS Leon Panetta told reporters 7/29 that "new details" of the
Clinton plan to balance the budget in 10 years will be released
today. According to Panetta, the preliminary numbers indicate
that Clinton's proposals could get to balance in "closer to nine
years," rather than the predicted 10. The budget review was
prepared by OMB; OMB Dir. Alice Rivlin will testify before
Congress 8/1 regarding the specifics of the review (REUTER/Balto.
SUN, 7/30).
*2 WILSON: AS EXPECTED, ASSEMBLY HOLDS UP CA'S BUDGET
Swift passage of the CA budget was "imperiled" Sunday night
by a "nasty feud" between Pete Wilson and Assembly Dems over
financial aid to L.A. County and a welfare plan. Although it
passed the state Senate on 7/29, a compromise negotiated by
Wilson and leg. leaders last week "deteriorated" into an
"exchange of angry accusations" in the Assembly. Wilson,
"impatient to return to the presidential campaign trail, bitterly
accused Democrats of trying to hold him up for more concessions."
Wilson said Assembly Dems are "welshing" on last week's deal
while Assembly Dem leader Willie Brown called Wilson a "flat-ass
liar." Wilson has "largely been kept off the campaign trail" by
the legislature's failure to enact a budget. This weekend,
Wilson "missed a chance to showcase his presidential bid" at the
NGA meeting in VT, attended by 42 of his fellow govs. Pres.
Clinton and Bob Dole will offer their "competing" welfare plans
to govs. today, but Wilson will "remain stuck in Sacramento"
(Lucas/Gunnison, S.F. CHRONICLE, 7/31).
GOOD WEEKEND CHATTER: William Safire: "If you're betting,
you have to bet on Dole now.
He's been picking up delegates,
as they call them, one after another. But I think we have to
keep our eye on the possibility of a stumble and who would move
in. Lamar Alexander is doing a good job. I think Pete Wilson is
the guy to watch" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 7/30). Jack Germond:
"The next round of polls on Republican candidates will show that
Pete Wilson is the one that used the affirmative action issue to
get himself out of the pack juxtaposed against Dole."
*3 DOLE: IN NH, FOCUSING ON CLINTON
Bob Dole visited Rochester, NH 7/30, speaking about his plan
to overhaul welfare and "criticizing" Pres. Clinton, who Dole
"said did not have a plan" for welfare reform. Asked about his
affirmative action bill, Dole said his intent was "not to make
race part of the campaign, but to provide a forum for discussing
the issue in Congress next year": "I've got a flawless civil
rights record and I'm proud of it." Dole also claimed that
recent comments by Jack Kemp criticizing the GOP treatment of
affirm. action were "taken out of context": "Jack Kemp wrote me a
note saying his comments were misconstrued, that he didn't attack
Bob Dole." Dole also "won applause" when he spoke about his
efforts to lift the Bosnian arms embargo and listed four women,
including Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX), when asked if he
were considering any women as running mates (Scales, BOSTON
GLOBE, 7/31). NH is in some ways Dole's "most important primary"
next year. "A stumble, taking second or third, could be fatal."
That's why he is "working hard to hold his front-runner status"
through town meetings like Rochester. The presence of Dave
Carney, who is running Dole's NH campaign, marks a "difference"
from the Dole campaigns of old. Carney: "We have a totally
different game plan and strategy than he had in 1988. I think
they were much more dominated by winning lowa, coming to New
Hampshire with a bump and leveraging it." In '88, Dole had only
two dozen field staff in NH. Now Carney has at least one in each
of the 259 NH towns. Dole has also "honed" his message to that
of a "hardrock conservative." Arlen Specter contends Dole's new
message is "at odds" with his congressional record: "Bob Dole has
trimmed his sails on affirmative action and in defeating Henry
Foster. The character issue is going to come into play.
After all, our major complaint against Clinton is his frequent
change of opinions, isn't it?" (Thompson, K.C. STAR, 7/31).
NORTH CAROLINA: A "key group" of NC GOP gathered in
Mecklenberg County, the NC county with the highest number of GOP
primary voters, to declare their support for Dole. Frosh Rep.
Sue Myrick (R-09) will chair the county for Dole, as well serve
as vice-chair on the NC steering cmte. Other supporters include:
ex-Gov. Jim Martin, ex-Rep. Alex McMillan, ex-AG James Carson and
other state and local officials (release, 7/28).
WEEKEND SCREEDS: RICHMOND TIMES-DISPATCH's Hall argues
there "is nothing in the world" Dole needs to do except develop a
"set speech," win the nomination and "ride the wave of
discontent" with Clinton into the WH. But Dole -- "determined to
put the thrill back into a runaway began to grab the horns" of
Bosnia and affirm. action "in ways that put the focus on his
record and that of the Republican party, rather than Clinton."
On Bosnia, "it is difficult to understand why Dole feels a need
to present an alternative [to Clinton] at all." On affirm.
action, "he is trying to convert the low grumbling and growling"
against it into a legislative ban, fearing that if he waited
until the GOP came up with an alternative to the program, he
would be "co-opted" by Pete Wilson and Phil Gramm (7/30).
AGE ISSUE: Steven Chapman argues that Dole's age "matters
for reasons that have nothing to do with political style or
ideology. It matters because by any prudent standard, Dole is
too old for the presidency." Dole is healthy and energetic now,
but that may not last: "A sensible electorate won't count on good
luck" (TIMES-DISPATCH, 7/30). N.Y. TIMES' Rich writes "physical
age is not the issue The real issue is his character. After
two Presidents who've been on too many sides of too many
questions, is the country in the market for another?" (7/29).
CONSULTANT SIGNS UP: GOP strategist Jay Smith has joined
Dole's media and strategy team (Dole release, 7/31).
*4 FROM THE FIELD: THE WEEKEND IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
An event at Plymouth State College 7/30 attracted a crowd of
more than 400 and Phil Gramm, Dick Lugar, Arlen Specter and Bob
Dornan. Also attending were spokespersons for Pat Buchanan,
Lamar Alexander and Bob Dole. IA Gov. Terry Branstad (R) spoke
on behalf of Dole on IA and NH's roles as leaders in the
presidential selection process: "We think God ordained New
Hampshire to be first and we want to keep it that way." Branstad
added that NH has a "better track record" than IA in those
selections. Many of the candidates or representatives used the
five minutes they were given to address the crowd to "focus" on
Pres. Clinton as their "target" (Manchester UNION LEADER, 7/31).
BUCHANAN: Pat Buchanan campaigned over the weekend in Sioux
City and other parts of western IA. He highlighted his
opposition to NAFTA and GATT, saying he would repeal them as
president. He added, "The minute I take the oath of office, the
new world orderwill come crashing down." Buchanan's camp bragged
about their 2nd-place showing in last week's TIME-CNN poll and in
an "informal" vote taken at the Ida Co. fair (Zerschling, SIOUX
CITY JOURNAL, 7/31). IA Christian Coalition Pres. lone Dilley
has "emerged as one of the most influential political figures" in
IA and her influence will be felt as her organization "goad[s]"
GOP candidates "into more conservative positions on social issues
such as abortion" and "shove[s] the debate to the right, causing
GOP moderates to wince." Buchanan is "rapidly becoming the
favorite" of many coalition members, and if he wins the 7/19 Ames
IA straw poll, "it will be due in no small part to the movement
Dilley has nurtured." The coalition's skill in political
organizing has turned it into "one of the most effective
political operations in Iowa today." It is bringing "thousands"
of new voters to the booths and "tipping the balance toward
conservatives in close elections." Dilley will stay "neutral" on
the '96 race, but her followers are "scattering" among the
candidates. Dilley: "Quite frankly, too many of the candidates
are avoiding pro-life issues like the plague" (Yepsen, DES MOINES
REGISTER, 7/31).
YAFFERS LIKE GRAMM: Phil Gramm won a straw poll conducted
by Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) at the Nat'l College
Republican Convention 7/27-29 (release, 7/28).
SPECTER: Arlen Specter opened his NH headquarters in
Concord 7/30 with about 50 volunteers. Bringing "the loudest
applause" was a declaration by Specter that he "liked" being the
only pro-choice candidate in the field. He also said he was
convinced he could win if supporters could get centrists "off the
sidelines and onto the playing fields" (CONCORD MONITOR, 7/31).
JACKSON: U.S. NEWS' "Washington Whispers" reports that Dem
and GOP strategists agree that Jesse Jackson "would most likely
benefit" from Vote's strawpoll to be held 11/7, about 100
days before the NH primary. They say CityVote would be an
"excellent springboard" for a Jackson presidential campaign
because "cities are Jackson's natural constituencies." Any
"viable presidential candidate" can appear on the ballot, and the
list of those "recommended" to appear by City Vote include five
undeclared candidates -- Jackson, Colin Powell, Malcolm Forbes,
Jr., Lowell Weicker and Ross Perot. Not listed is Newt Gingrich,
whom they decided was "not likely to run" (7/7 issue).
*5 PEROT: UWSA MAY BE "PANDERTHON"; A POWELL-PEROT TICKET?
Comparing Ross Perot to the "slightly dotty society
matriarch -- ridiculed in private, but whose dinner invitations
are never turned down," NEWSWEEK's Turque explains the "giant
sucking sound you'll hear next week" in Dallas at the UWSA
conference 8/11-13 will the pres. hopefuls "paying homage." The
candidates are planning an "extraordinary panderthon, each hoping
to become the new champion of Perot's potent populist message."
The "reaching out" to the Perot voters is "important," but since
"most of these voters are likely to be tilting Republican anyway
in 1996 the real target is Perot himself," and an attempt to
"charm him" out of the '96 race. A "cautious GOP operative" said
this will have to be done "gingerly": "What we don't want to do
is see anyone tell him he can't run." The WH wants Perot in the
race for all the reasons the GOP wants him out, and "the
possibility of irritating Perot with a presidential slight" could
be the reason Clinton will not attend. DNC co-chair Chris Dodd
will go in Clinton's stead and will "face a tough sell" in a
crowd in which only a third approve of Clinton's job performance.
But "the question is whether they're that much happier" with the
GOP field. "Many Perot activists are coming to Dallas to discuss
forming a national third party." Even if Perot does not run, he
"couldn't possibly" deliver the 20 million votes he received in
'92 even if he were to endorse another candidate because he has
"little in the way of a political organization." But another
Perot candidacy "could change all that." Scheduling himself for
"maximum exposure" in the coming weeks, Perot is "leaving his
options open." Ex-press sec. Jim Squires, who is considering an
independent Senate run in KY: "It wouldn't surprise me if you see
Ross in there" (7/7 issue). "As Republicans prepare to endure
the scorching Dallas sun, they have reason to sweat." Perot
voters are disenchanted enough with DC "to swing to either
party." They oppose the GOP on a number of issues, including
NAFTA and GATT and failing to deliver term limits and a balanced-
budget amendment. But, "by kissing Perot's political ring early
and often," GOPers hope to keep Perot out of the contest (Dunham,
BUSINESS WEEK, 7/7). In a DALLAS MORNING NEWS interview, Perot
dismissed the notion that he is merely attempting to play
"political kingmaker" with the conference. He said his motive
was to get candidates "to stay focused on campaign and
government-reform issues that he believes will swing independent
voters": "Implementing these ideas is all we want. To me, the
ultimate victory would be to see it done, and for me not to have
to get involved. I want the American people better educated
on the issues than they've ever been before in the history of
this country -- before the primary starts." He outlined a plan
to be a "power-broker between independent voters and political
leaders" and said he did not want to "be within 50,000 miles of
politics" because it is "irrational." He did not, however, give
an "unequivocal statement" about his intentions for '96 (7/30).
THIRD PARTY: If Perot gets the commitments of the GOP
contenders to support campaign finance and lobbying reform -- the
issue that has "wider and deeper support than any other on the
reformist third-party agenda" -- momentum for a third party or an
independent Perot candidacy "could be derailed." But his
followers have "their own plans" for the conference -- they hope
to introduce a resolution calling for a new party. It is
"questionable" whether Perot wants to "hear or talk" about third
parties. "Long-time Perot-watchers" believe a third party, or
the "threat of a third party," is only a "means to affect
government reform, not an end in itself" for Perot. If he were
to run, it is "more likely" he'd do so again as an independent.
There are also "suggestions" that Perot take the VP slot on a
third-party ticket led by Colin Powell, a team that could "serve
to draw in all the scattered new [independent] parties under one
third-party umbrella" (Worthington, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 7/30).
*6 POWELL: TV TALK FOCUSES ON A REPUBLICAN RUN
CNN's "Inside Politics Weekend" hosted Citizens for Powell's
Chuck Kelly and historian Stephen Ambrose. Ambrose: "He's a
Republican at heart, but the Republican Party has been taken or
is threatened to be taken over by the extremists in the party,
and he would not be terribly comfortable with that. He has an
opportunity to rescue the Republican Party from the extremists
My own preference is that he would run as a Republican.
General Powell, as a Republican candidate, I'm telling you it's
going to be a 62, 63, 64 percent of vote. The man will just
sweep the country." Kelly: "To make a difference, he needs a
decisive mandate. The only way he can get that decisive mandate
is to run as a Republican, because otherwise he subdivides the
country, and dividing the country is exactly the opposite of what
Colin Powell's great contribution can be." Kelly, on why he
hopes Powell would not accept an offer to be GOP VP: "The man has
the trust of this country. When people connect as they have
with Colin Powell, there is no purpose to be served by having him
subordinate that popularity to another person" (CNN, 7/29).
TIME's Mark Thompson, asked if Powell is a Republican: "I think
so. I don't think there's much doubt about that. It will
become quite clear in his book that he is very much, in some
ways, a social and fiscal conservative, although plainly he does
embrace affirmative action." Thompson, on how Powell may come to
his decision: "He's running down a diving board and he's ready to
jump up, and at the end of September, early October, he's going
to be putting all of his weight on that board, and springing up,
and it's at that point in time, when national attention is really
going to be focused on him, that he will see his options
crystalize in ways that may not be apparent now. Probably by
Halloween, he will have made a decision as to what to do" ("Road
to the White House," C-SPAN, 7/30). N.Y. TIMES' Berke writes as
Powell "begins to unmask himself" during his booktour, "the
question becomes whether voters will feel betrayed by their own
hopes." That "groups so diverse" support him provides "the most
troubling evidence that people are embracing a political
silhouette and filling in its features on faith" (7/30).
*7 VEEPSTAKES: MORE LUNGREN TALK
SACRAMENTO BEE's Endicott writes that when Bob Dole tossed
out the name of CA AG Dan Lungren (R) as a possible running mate,
Lungren's political staff "made certain last week that the
speculation about him got the widest possible distribution." And
even though Dole may have made the remark "as much to tweak
Wilson as to flatter Lungren, the idea is not as farfetched
as it might seem." Lungren has "impeccable credentials" and at
48, is a "nice counterbalance" to Dole, 78. But "more
importantly," he is "immensely popular" with the CA conservative
GOP voting base and has "appeal to moderates." A Dole campaign
aide noted, "If he can just deliver California, hell, that's all
you need him for." Even if Dole's comment was just a "gratuity"
to Lungren, "there is no question" that his stature has been
"enhanced" by the mention, putting him in a position to "reap
some benefits" for "the job he really wants," CA gov. in '98, for
which he has already filed candidacy papers (7/29). L.A. TIMES'
Gladstone and Ellis notes that although Lungren's office "faced
political perils when agents launched a sting operation against a
former chairman of his own party," the investigation "may well
enhance Lungren's own marketability for higher office." He is
considered a "strong bet" to run for either governor or Senate in
'98 (7/30). W. TIMES' Murray interviews Lungren, noting that he
is "No. 1" on Bob Dole's VP list. Murray calls the AG "complex,
combative and charming, even to his enemies," but points out that
most people consider him "very conservative." Lungren would
"likely try" to succeed CA Gov. Pete Wilson (R) if he were to
leave office and "even Democrats like his penchant for thrift."
Lungren calls himself a defender of state's rights and a man
tough on crime." He supports Prop. 187 and is "particularly
peeved" at federal court efforts to block it (7/30).
NATIONAL BRIEFING
*8 WHITEWATER: DEPOSITIONS COULD GIVE HILLARY A ROUGH RIDE
Sworn depositions from close advisers to Hillary Rodham
Clinton may bring her involvement more into question before the
Senate Whitewater hearings. ABC's Donvan: "ABC News has obtained
a number of documents including sworn depositions from some
of the principal witnesses who will be testifying before the
Whitewater committee. A review of those documents indicates that
the next two weeks of hearings could produce some politically
difficult moments for the White House, especially for First Lady
Hillary Clinton." ABC's Judd: "In the depositions reviewed by
ABC News, three Clinton associates leave open the possibility
that Hillary Clinton played a role in the decision to keep
investigators away from Vince Foster's office. At the least,
their ambiguity provides Republicans with plenty of ammunition."
The three depositions are from Thomases, ex-WH Counsel Bernard
Nussbaum and Nussbaum asst. Stephen Neuwirth. Judd then
explained the depositions: In her deposition, Thomases said she
had "no recollection" of speaking to HRC about the contents of
Foster's office, or the review of those contents. But when asked
if it is possible, she replied "Yes, it is possible." In his
deposition, Nussbaum said that although he doesn't "know it for a
fact, it wouldn't surprise me that the President or the First
Lady would have had a discussion with Thomases about a search."
Judd noted that Neuwirth's deposition holds one of the "most
tantalizing clues" for Republicans about who was concerned about
access to Foster's office. Neuwirth said that "Nussbaum felt
that Ms. Thomases and the First Lady' were concerned about the
prospect of 'unfettered access." Judd concluded, "In the end,
these documents contain no smoking gun, but they do contain
enough information about Mrs. Clinton that the already partisan
Whitewater hearings will become more so in the coming weeks"
(7/30).
DOUBTING THOMASES: Under header, "She Calls at Midnight,"
TIME's Duffy writes that "Senate investigators would like to
learn" what Thomases was doing on the Wednesday following Vincent
Foster's death and "whether Hillary Clinton put her up to it."
Probers intend to find out whether Thomases -- known for her
midnight strategy calls to the WH -- attempted to interfere in
the search of Foster's office two days following his suicide.
Thomases allegedly spoke with Nussbaum "at least once" on the
morning he was going to let investigators into the office.
Thomases also allegedly called HRC CoS Maggie Williams (or others
in the first lady's office) five times. The "combative, self-
important and funny" Thomases worked on the '92 campaign and then
turned down an offer to work in the WH. Instead, she is the "top
outside kibitzer" who "terrorizes aides with her withering
judgment." Thomases is scheduled to testify in the hearings next
week, but she may be able to avoid explaining her role in the
searches of Foster's office; she has been HRC's legal
representation since the 80s -- including Whitewater matters --
so all her discussions with the first lady about the land
development deal are privileged, and Senators "cannot compel her
to explain them" (8/7 issue). Even if Thomases manages to avoid
explaining Whitewater related issues, Dems are "bracing for what
some say could be 'a disaster." Thomases' "prickly manner has
alienated nearly everyone in Clinton's orbit; aides fear she'll
also rile Congress and the TV public." One Hill aide, when asked
if anyone was preparing Thomases for her testimony said, "There's
not enough money to pay me to do that" (NEWSWEEK, 8/7 issue).
NUSSBAUM PREVIEW: Ex-WH Counsel Bernard Nussbaum will
testify this week about the handling of files in Vincent Foster's
office after Foster's suicide. He will be asked about a Secret
Service officer's testimony that some of Foster's files were
removed on the evening of his death, before investigators
arrived. GOP "detractors and some investigators" say Nussbaum
impeded a Federal inquiry into Foster's suicide. After initially
promising DoJ attys they could look at Foster's files in search
of a suicide or extortion note, he "abruptly reneged" after
talking to HRC confidant Susan Thomases. Nussbaum plans to tell
the Senate that the investigation is "a search in a dark room for
a black cat which isn't there." Nussbaum, while claiming the
Clintons had not done anything wrong, said, "I'm taking the heat
and a good lawyer often takes the heat for a client. I should
have been more out front in defending my conduct when I was under
attack." Nussbaum called the thesis that Whitewater contributed
to Foster's depression "almost a malicious fiction": "Whitewater
was not on his mind. It was an innocuous issue then"
(Labaton, N.Y. TIMES, 7/31). NEWSWEEK's Klein, on the "detour"
Foster's "personal files" made en route to the WH private
residence: "So What? These were personal files. The Clintons
had a perfect right to review them before they were passed on to
their attorney. They had a perfect right to keep them for that
matter." The "most disappointing" aspect of the hearings is what
we are learning about the Clintons' character: "They are the Tom
and Daisy Buchanan of the Baby Boom Political Elite. The
Buchanan's you may recall, were F. Scott Fitzgerald's brilliant
characterization of flapper fecklessness in "The Great Gatsby.'
They were 'careless' people. They smashed up lives and didn't
notice. After two years, it's becoming difficult to avoid a
distinguishing characteristic of this administration: the body
count. Too many lives and reputations have been ruined by
carelessness, too many decent people have been forced to walk the
plank for trivialities, appearances, changes of mind. Whitewater
has been the worst of it" (8/7 issue).
PUNDITS: Eleanor Clift: "Hillary Rodham Clinton has a
terrific blind spot when it comes to anybody going through
anything she thinks they don't have a right to. Now, to somebody
who came of age during Watergate, she should realize that that
office was the site of a potential criminal scene.
She
has
created huge problems for herself and the President as a result"
("McLaughlin Group," 7/29). Howard Fineman: "The problem that Al
D'Amato's got is that this is all heading straight for Hillary
Clinton, which is the last person he wants it to head for. She's
very smart, I won't say who she's smarter than, very good on TV.
She's a woman and she's not in office. It's a dicey thing to
bring her in." Juan Williams: "Hillary's going to be called into
the dock at some point, and the American people aren't going to
think she's so wonderful. They're going to think, 'Hey, you have
a lot of guilt here" ("Capital Gang Sunday," CNN, 7/30). Senate
Whitewater chair Al D'Amato, appearing on CNN's "Evans & Novak,"
asked if it still possible that HRC would be called to testify:
"If I say that, the next thing you know, there'll be a newspaper
headline that says, 'D'Amato says possible.' We must see that
there are clear, convincing facts that necessitate that. Only
under those circumstances. We're not going to make this a
circus" (7/29). Jack Germond, on the hearings: "This whole thing
is a joke. It's a political hatchet job by Al D'Amato." Fred
Barnes: "[The conventional wisdom] was he'd be a wild man and
they'd turn up nothing new. In fact, he's been very reasonable
and they've turned up a lot new" ("McLaughlin Group," 7/29).
CLINTON SENT AR BUSINESS TO MCDOUGAL: While AR Gov., Bill
Clinton allegedly helped direct state business to his Whitewater
partner, James McDougal. This "first confirmation" that Clinton
was "directly involved in a state decision that benefitted"
McDougal will be a "key focus" of House Whitewater hearings next
month. Madison Savings & Loan, which is owned by McDougal,
received three state leases "worth tens of thousands of dollars"
in the mid 80's -- two of them approved after McDougal hosted a
"controversial" re-election fundraiser for Clinton in '85. Ex-AR
housing agency chief Wooten Epes said he met with Clinton to
protest the leases because the "price was too high" and the
buildings were in an "undesirable" part of Little Rock. Epes
said that Clinton rejected his advice and said he "thought it
would be good for the state" (Rauber, N.Y. POST, 7/31). Clinton
atty David Kendall claimed there was "never any connection
between political contributions and the leases": "There was
never, at any time, or in any way, special treatment of Jim
McDougal or any quid-pro-quo favors of any kind" (AP/Balto. SUN,
7/31).
*9 WACO: ZELIFF SAYS CLINTON "PERSONALLY INVOLVED" IN DECISION
On NBC's "Meet the Press," Rep. Bill Zeliff (R-NH), the co-
chair overseeing the House Waco hearings, was asked if he thought
Pres. Clinton was "personally involved" in making the decision to
enter the Branch Davidian compound. Zeliff: "I believe he was.
We believe there was information, we can show this week, that
indicated that he wanted to be informed every step of the way.
He wanted to know. He wanted to be involved in the decision
process. I don't believe Janet Reno, who had less than two
weeks on the job, made this decision all by herself." Rep.
Charles Schumer (D-NY), also on the show: "This is the kind of
fishing expedition that has given these hearings something of a
bad name. Before you make an allegation that the President
was involved, have some facts. There wasn't one shred of
evidence [from WH documents] that the President made the
decision. He was informed of the decision" (7/30). During the
hearings on 7/28, ex-Assoc. AG Webb Hubbell and others testified
that Clinton was not involved in the decision. USA TODAY header:
"Lawmaker says Clinton had big Waco role" (7/31).
RENO TO TESTIFY TOMORROW: AG Janet Reno is expected, on
8/1, to be the final witness at the House Waco hearings. She is
expected to testify, as she told reporters last week, that the
decision to use gas and raid the compound was hers, that she saw
no other option to ending the siege, and that she informed
Clinton of her decision. N.Y. TIMES editorial: "The real puzzle
remains the lack of prudence and reasonable foresight on the
party of [Reno] and other [Admin.] officials" (7/31).
*10 MEDICARE: DISCORD MARKS ANNIVERSARY PARTY
"Like relatives squabbling at a birthday party," Pres.
Clinton and the GOP marked the 30th anniversary of Medicare "by
accusing each other of putting the program's future at risk." In
his weekly radio address, Clinton charged Republicans, in trying
to "fix" Medicare, would in effect put the elderly "in a fix."
Clinton released a gov't study that showed 500,000 senior
citizens would be pushed into poverty due to higher health costs
under the GOP plan. Clinton said the money would be used to
"finance tax cuts for the wealthy." But Republicans countered
that Clinton has offered no plan to keep the Medicare trust fund
from going broke. Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R-NV), in the GOP
response: "There aren't too many birthday celebrations left for
Medicare unless we act now." Clinton was joined for his radio
address by the First Lady and a group of senior citizens,
including his stepfather, Dick Kelly, and his mother-in-law,
Dorothy Rodham (Benac, AP/PHILA. INQUIRER, 7/30).
THE PERILS OF SECRECY: L.A. TIMES' Chen writes that just as
the WH kept the details of its '94 health-care plan in "virtual
secrecy," a "very similar process also is being embraced" by Hill
Republicans "as they plot their own, high-stakes drive to revamp
Medicare. And just as the controversial process itself helped
doom President Clinton's sweeping agenda last year, the current
GOP tactic also could backfire if it fails to win the support of
a wary public, especially the nation's powerful senior citizens.
Republicans might well pay a high price at the polls in 1996
just as Democrats did in 1994, in part, because the promised
Clinton health-care-reform initiative collapsed (PHILA. INQUIRER,
7/30). House Maj. Leader Dick Armey, on "Meet the Press,"
insisted, "We have not been working in secret. Just about
everybody interested in health care, including the AARP and other
seniors groups, including the providers have been in meetings
with us as we have explored all kinds of possibilities, all kinds
of recommendations. The only thing that is secret, in terms of
the Democrats' characterization of this, is that we haven't been
able to put the details together and reveal it to the American
people. This is just pure balderdash, all this stuff about
secret plans" (NBC, 7/30).
ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION: ABC's Donvan: "With the Clinton
Administration under increasing attack by Republicans on Capitol
Hill, Congressional Democrats fanned out across the country
staging rallies to focus attention on one political issue the
Democrats believe is still a big winner for them" (7/30). CNN's
Dougherty: "The elaborately scripted, satellite town hall meeting
was less a party than a declaration of war against Republicans."
HHS Sec. Donna Shalala: "It's time that we told those out-of-
control revolutionaries that Medicare is not their piggy bank to
pay for a big tax break for people that don't need one and don't
want one" (7/30). Margaret Carlson: "The Democrats are winning
the soundbite war at the moment, but Clinton is missing an
opportunity to revive his health care plan, the parts of it that
are in agreement with what the Republicans are trying to do right
now, which is to push people into managed care" ("Capital Gang,"
CNN, 7/29). ABC's Zelnick: "Democratic polls say that Medicare
is one of their best political issues. They're likely to keep it
front and center as the battle of the budget unfolds" (7/30).
RISKS: CBS' Orr: "Republicans accused the administration of
watching Medicare go bankrupt." Rep. John Boehner (R-OH): "The
fact is, the President has no plan. They're afraid of this
issue" (7/30). Bob Novak: "It's very dangerous for Republicans.
Right now in the fight, the demagoguing by the Democrats has
put the Republicans a little behind" ("Capital Gang," CNN, 7/29).
U.S. NEWS' Susan Dentzer, calling Medicare "a political time
bomb": "The Democrats are holding the bomb and it's about to blow
up in the Republicans' face" ("Late Edition," CNN, 7/30).
*11 PACKWOOD: MOYNIHAN FIGHTS MOVE FOR PUBLIC HEARINGS
Sen. Pat Moynihan (D-NY) has "emerged as one of the chief
supporters" of Sen. Bob Packwood (R-OR), who is the subject of an
Ethics Cmte investigation over sexual and official misconduct
charges. In a Dem caucus meeting last week, Moynihan said "it
was not the time for public hearings on the accusations" and that
"any decision about what to do next" should be left to the Ethics
Cmte, which reconvenes today. Moynihan "rejected" a proposal by
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) that would force a full Senate vote on
a resolution to hold hearings: "I took the simple position
that in the interests of the Senate, we ought not to bring ethics
issues to a vote until the committee has resolved them. The
position is, you do not policitize these matters or the
institution will regret it" (Seelye, N.Y. TIMES, 7/31). Paul
Gigot, on Boxer: "She's winning the battle of PR so far. She is
playing rough, punch-in-the-gut politics" ("M/L," PBS, 7/28).
PENALTY: NEWSWEEK reports the Ethics Cmte "may decide to do
more than censure" Packwood. Sources close to Packwood "say they
now fear the committee could recommend that the entire Senate
vote" on whether to strip him of his Senate Finance Cmte chair,
rather than leaving it to a secret ballot of GOPers. A public,
recorded vote "would all but guarantee that Packwood loses his
chairmanship." But the cmte is "considered unlikely to call for
public hearings." NEWSWEEK's "CW" gives Packwood a "down" arrow:
"Old CW: Packy's tongue in your mouth. New CW: Sen. Boxer's fist
in his kisser" (8/7 issue).
*12 BOSNIA: WARFARE GETS TREACHEROUS
IN DC
Paul Gigot, on last week's Senate vote repudiating Pres.
Clinton's policy on ending the arms embargo in Bosnia:
"Ultimately, this may help the president politically.
If
[Congress] does ultimately override the veto, it begins to take
responsibility" ("MacNeil/Lehrer," PBS, 7/28). John McLaughlin:
"It is rare enough that the foreign policy of the nation's
Commander-in-Chief is directly challenged by Congress, but it is
almost unheard of that members of the President's own party would
join so massively in such a repudiation." Eleanor Clift: "This
is a pretend policy that the Senate has advanced. The impact
of this is zero." Fred Barnes: "This is the most important slap-
down of the president in foreign policy in twenty years.
One
way or another, [the embargo] will be lifted" ("McLaughlin
Group," 7/29). Al Hunt: "This is the most devastating
repudiation of a President on foreign policy since the closing
days of Vietnam. I'm not sure if this would be good policy. It
may make matters worse but the message that this sends about
this President, about his fecklessness and his carelessness on
this policy, has so antagonized people that he has no allies left
in the Congress" ("Capital Gang," CNN, 7/29). Charles
Krauthammer: "It is an incredible rejection of the administration
policy and a vote of no confidence. If this were a parliamentary
system, the Foreign Secretary and the Minister of Defense would
have to resign and the Prime Minister would have to shuffle his
cabinet and have a whole new team and a whole new policy." Carl
Rowan: "This may be a pyrrhic victory for Bob Dole and the
others. It's kind of akin to me saying, 'I don't like Mike
Tyson. I hear he beats up women, but I don't want to fight Mike
Tyson because somebody I really like might get hurt, so what I'm
going to do is buy his girlfriend a pair of boxing gloves to even
up the match.' Now, that's about what the Senate did this week"
("Inside Washington," 7/29). William Safire: "The amazing thing
to Americans should be the vacancy in the White House. We've
never had this, at least in 100 years, of a President, in foreign
affairs, losing control and control being seized by the Congress"
("Meet the Press," NBC, 7/30). Jack Germond & Jules Witcover
write, "By this time next year, when the 1996 election campaign
is in full swing, the war in Bosnia may be off the television
screens and largely forgotten. But Bill Clinton will be at a
pronounced disadvantage if he is perceived by the electorate as a
president over his head on foreign policy" (Balto. SUN, 7/29).
Under the header, "Why Congress Took Over Bosnian Policy," W.S.
JOURNAL's Melloan writes, "Presidents are seldom censured on
foreign policy by a bipartisan vote this powerful.
The
Senators seemed less motivated by opportunism than by simple
disgust" (7/31).
EDITORIALS: ORLANDO SENTINEL: "Mr. Clinton has had plenty
of time to show leadership on this issue -- and hasn't. The
course he prefers is to keep mucking around in Bosnia with half-
measures that go nowhere or stick-waving that threatens to suck
the United States into a wider military commitment" (7/28).
DETROIT FREE PRESS: "Clinton must understand that whether
Congress has a better policy or not, it clearly has a message for
him. The country is befuddled about Bosnia, unhappy with this
country's stance, unclear about what kind of alternative might
seem more heroic. If Mr. Clinton continues to do as badly on
setting an agenda for Bosnia and explaining it well, this week's
vote surely will begin the final unraveling of his foreign
policy. Clinton needs to act decisively to regain his
prerogatives and exercise his responsibility. Clearly,
though, he cannot rest where he is, or Sen. Dole will take over
his functions long before next year's election" (7/28). DETROIT
NEWS editorial header: "Bosnia: Dole Takes Control" (7/28).
CHICAGO TRIBUNE calls Clinton's Bosnia policy "a policy marked by
incoherence, inconsistency and conflicting motives. Worst of all
and whether intended or not, it is a policy that has made the
United States an accomplice to genocide" (7/28).
SCARLET L: Clinton is listed in TIME's "Losers" column:
"Another Senate action: veto-proof majority votes to end Bosnian
arms embargo" (8/7 issue).
HOUSE ACTION: The House 8/1 will consider ending the
Bosnian embargo, either by taking up the Senate measure that
passed last week by a 69-29 vote or by drafting its own version.
In June, the House voted 318-99 to "direct President Clinton to
end the ban unilaterally," but that amendment was attached to
legislation that is still pending in the Senate. House Maj.
Leader Dick Armey, on whether the House has the votes to override
an expected Clinton veto: "We think it'll be very close"
(Scarborough, W. TIMES, 7/31).
*13 WELFARE REFORM: CLINTON VS. DOLE (AND DOLE VS. GRAMM)
Pres. Clinton and Senate Maj. Leader Bob Dole today will
offer "competing proposals" to "overcome a political impasse that
has stalled welfare legislation for two months." Speaking before
the NGA in Burlington, VT, Clinton will offer states incentives
to meet an "ambitious new goal of putting large numbers of
welfare recipients into jobs or programs that prepare them for
work," according to admin. officials. Another official also said
that the Clinton plan would give states more "flexibility in
running their welfare plans." Dole's proposal builds on the
measure approved by the Senate Finance Cmte, to which a group of
24 conservative senators, led by Phil Gramm (TX), objected.
Searching for a consensus, Dole was forced to "move to the
right." Still, his plan would "place him in the middle," between
a conservative Gramm bill and a "liberal alternative" to be
offered by Senate Dems. Dole's measure would provide block
grants to the states, which would have "far more discretion than
they have now in deciding how to use the money." But poor people
would no longer have the legal right to federal assistance (Pear,
N.Y. TIMES, 7/30). WH Press Sec. Mike McCurry: "Part of the
reason why we're losing momentum here is the Republicans are all
over the map on this. Republican governors are not in agreement
with members of the Congress from the Republican party, and
Republicans in Congress are in widespread disagreement on how to
proceed. They just don't have their act together." CNN's
Blitzer: "Ending welfare as we know it has been a popular
rallying cry since the '92 campaign, but last year it took a back
seat to [Clinton's] ill-fated health care reform initiative.
Aides say he's attempting to use this issue once again to seek a
middle ground between liberal Democrats and conservative
Republicans" (7/28).
GOP CONFLICTS: "On welfare, more perhaps than on any other
issue, Mr. Dole's instincts as a deal maker in the back rooms of
Congress conflict with the ideological purity demanded by the
conservative wing of the Republican Party." NH Gov. Steve
Merrill (R): "This may be the first philosophical battleground in
the race for the Republican presidential nomination." He added,
"This gives Gramm a specific issue on which he can contrast
himself with Bob Dole." Gramm's bill would deny aid to unwed
moms under 18, most legal aliens and additional children born to
families already on welfare. One Dole proposal, described in
confidential documents, would "require teen mothers to live at
home and attend school" and would "expressly give states the
option to deny benefits." Dole also is considering a measure to
"mandate that states deny benefits to teen mothers," but states
could "pass legislation to opt out" of this requirement (N.Y.
TIMES, 7/30). According to Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), a Dole
ally, the Gramm bill "is not likely to prevail" (Vobjeda/
Havemann, W. POST, 7/29).
*14 COVER TO COVER
BUSINESS WEEK -- "Power to the States: Are they ready?"
(8/7).
NEWSWEEK -- Photo: Susan Smith. "Who deserves to die? Why
America supports capital punnishmentyet puts so few people to
death." (8/7).
TIME -- "Why America shouldn't kill cultural funding" (8/7).
U.S. NEWS -- "Windows '95. Beyond the Hype: A User's Guide"
(8/7).
ECONOMIST -- "Containing China" (7/29-8/4).
NEW REPUBLIC -- "The Incredible Growing Presidency: "Forget
Newt's Power. Forget Clinton's Weakness. There's a reason why
Gingrich and Dole and Gramm and Buchanan are still jockeying for
the presidency. It's where the power still is." (8/14).
CAMPAIGNS OF '95
*15 SAN FRANCISCO MAYOR: BROWN WINS BACKING OF COUNTY DEMS
CA Assembly Dem Leader Willie Brown chalked up a
"significant victory" on 7/26 when he won the endorsement of the
S.F. Co. Dem Central Cmte (DCC). Twenty-three of the 29 cmte
members voted to back Brown; ex-HUD official Roberta Achtenberg
received 4 votes, Mayor Frank Jordan got two, and Supervisor
Angela Alioto got none. It was the first time the cmte voted to
endorse a mayoral candidate. The endorsement means that Brown
"will receive the full benefit" of the party "in the form of get-
out-the-vote efforts, slate card mailings, voter registration and
fund-raising events." Last year, state Dems sued to overturn a
state law which prohibited them from making endorsements in
nonpartisan races like S.F. mayor. A federal judge said the law
"directly restrains political speech" and allowed the party
"leeway to endorse." Other candidates: businessman Ben Hom (R)
and S.F. Enviro. Commiss Joel Ventresca (D) (Bender, S.F.
EXAMINER, 7/28). Filing deadline 8/11. Supervisor Terence
Hallinan (D), who had considered the mayoral race, is instead
challenging D.A. Arlo Smith (D) for re-election. The DCC denied
its endorsement to Smith, a move which Hallinan called "a body
blow to Arlo. Two of his kids are on that committee, and he said
he had this committee sewn up in January." Also running for
D.A.: ex-asst D.A. Bill Fazio (EXAMINER, 7/28).
*16 BALTO. MAYOR: CHOICE MAY REST ON STYLE, NOT ISSUES
The difference in leadership between Mayor Kurt Schmoke (D)
"The One-Man Think Tank" -- and City Council Pres. Mary Pat
Clarke (D) -- "The Doyenne of Do It Now" -- has "seldom been
as stark" as in the "recent flap" over the city's curfew. After
the city stopped enforcing the law because the courts struck down
a similar one, Clarke "sprang into action," pushing through a
revised bill almost immediately. But Schmoke refused to sign the
bill until legal experts declared that the law would hold up,
nearly two weeks after it passed council. State Sen. John Pica
(D): "They're at different extremes. He tends to study issues,
to defer judgment until a study is completed. She tends to make
decisions on the spot." Schmoke is the "quintessential cerebral
candidate," but his "low key approach and studious manner often
have made him seem lost in thought, aloof from some of the gritty
details of urban life, reluctant to be a cheerleader and unable
to move swiftly." Clarke is the "protypical populist
politician," but her "full-speed-ahead style has often made her
seem frantic and frenzied: so quick to jump on the latest
bandwagon that she acts before thinking, unwilling to take
politically unpopular stands and infrequently siding against
individual neighborhoods." In response to charges that he is too
cerebral and slow to act, Schmoke replies, "I believe firmly
there is a difference between do-it-now and do-it-right"
(Siegel/Daemmrich, Balto. SUN, 7/30). Dem primary: 9/12.
50 STATE REPORT
*17 COLORADO: ALLARD SAYS HE'S 98% SURE HE'LL RUN
With the numbers from his most recent campaign finance
statement "pushing him closer to a decision" on whether to run
for the seat of retiring Sen. Hank Brown (R), Rep. Wayne Allard
(R-04) said 7/29 there is a "98 percent chance" he will make the
bid. The FEC reports show that Allard has "collected nearly
$284,000 to spend on a possible run" including "about $123,000 of
contributions from individuals" and "about $85,000" from
PACs. Allard said "the number of individuals willing to give
money early to his campaign shows that he has significant
statewide support for a Senate run." He has not "officially
announced," but said he would announce his plans "this autumn."
Allard: "If things continue to go as they are, it's a certainty."
AG Gale Norton (R) is already in, so "Allard's entry into the
race could set up a primary-election battle between them"
(Kretschman, GREELEY TRIBUNE, 7/30). Other possible GOPers: atty
Bill Eggert, ex-Sec/State Mary Estill Buchanan, state Sen.
Charlie Duke. Announced Dem: ex-Jerry Brown CO mgr Phil
Perington. Possible Dems: Denver atty Tom Strickland, state
Sen. Paul Weissman, Denver councilmember Ramona Martinez and
Univ/CO's Gene Nichol.
*18 MISSOURI: EX-NFL QB KENNEY HOPING TO SCORE IN GOV. RACE
State Sen. Bill Kenney (R), a quarterback for the K.C.
Chiefs during the '80s, told colleagues in a letter "that he
planned to seek the GOP nomination" for gov. in '96 and will
"make a formal announcement this fall." Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) is
"expected to seek a second term." Kenney spokesperson Mike
Gannon said Kenney "was serious" about running and "not merely
testing the political waters." In his letter, Kenney "was highly
critical" of the governor, saying that "just like Bill Clinton,
Mel Carnahan broke his promise to the voters of Missouri" when he
supported a "[$310M] education tax increase" in '93. MO GOPers
have said the bill "should have been submitted to voters."
Kenney also wrote that the reasons for running were "clear":
"Taxes are too high. Crime is too rampant. Corruption is too
commonplace. And Gov. Mel Carnahan is too liberal." Kenney has
credited "Christian activist groups" for helping him win election
in '94 to his legislative post, his first public office (Sentell,
K.C. STAR, 7/28). Other GOP possibles: state House Min. Leader
Mark Richardson, Auditor Margaret Kelly and state Sen. Min.
Leader Franc Flotron.
*19 MONTANA: POLL SHOWS ONLY 30% WOULD VOTE FOR BAUCUS
The latest Montana Poll indicates that only 30% of Montanans
surveyed would vote to re-elect Sen. Max Baucus (D) in '96.
Thirty-three percent of those surveyed said they would consider
another candidate, 17% said they would "definitely replace"
Baucus and 19% were undecided. The Univ. of MT Bureau of
Business and Economic Research surveyed 402 adult MT residents
6/22-27, and has a margin of error of +/-5%. Baucus received a
48% job approval rating against a 28% disapproval (AP/Butte
MONTANA STANDARD, 7/28). In a hypothetical race against LG Max
Rehberg (R), Baucus led 36-24%, with 40% undecided (NRSC release,
7/28). Other GOP possibles: '90 primary cand. John Domenech,
state Sen. Lorents Grosfield.
*20 NORTH CAROLINA: SOME EX-GANTT BACKERS MOVING TO SANDERS
In his bid to unseat Sen. Jesse Helms (R), businessman
Charlie Sanders (D), a "relative unknown" to NC voters, has
raised nearly $750,000, with about $500,000 on hand, according to
FEC reports to be filed next week. But Sanders' probable primary
opponent, ex-Charlotte Mayor/90 Dem nominee Harvey Gantt (D),
has raised "barely any" and has only $10,000 on hand. Helms has
already raised over $1M. In addition, Sanders has received
donations from Charlotte Dems "who had made it a habit" of
supporting Gantt. In '90, Helms beat Gantt 53-47%, with Helms
spending $18M to Gantt's $8M. But Sanders spokesperson Chuck
Carr said Sanders "offers a new alternative to put against Jesse
Helms. And the support that he's received in this first
reporting period shows he can win, which is the name of the
game." As an unknown, Sanders "might need more money" than
Gantt, but that he is receiving support from former Gantt backers
"could signal trouble" for the former mayor. Stan Kaplan, who
raised money for Gantt in '90 but now supports Sanders, said
Gantt is "too liberal" to beat Helms and the "more moderate"
Sanders has a better chance: "I just don't think the dynamics are
there. The Democratic Party should be more where Clinton is
leading it than where Harvey thinks it ought to be. Harvey
is
much more vulnerable to attacks by Helms." Another Gantt
defector, atty Mark Bernstein, said that Sanders' campaign
contacted him "months ago," but that he has "yet to hear" from
Gantt: "I just didn't realize he was going to run." But Gantt's
friends contend that there is "no doubt" that he is in the race.
Although he has not hired a campaign staff, he has hired DC
consultants. A Gantt campaign aide added, "People who
underestimate Harvey made a mistake the last time. It is very
early. I have total confidence that the resources Harvey needs
will be there and that he'll beat Sanders in the primary." Helms
campaign treas. Jack Bailey commented that his camp "doesn't
care" which candidate wins the Dem primary: "We'll let the
Democrats have their primary and choose their candidate. We'll
take our chances against either one of them and think we will
win" (Morrill, CHARLOTTE OBSERVER, 7/28). Other possible Dems:
AG Mike Easley and state Sen. Beverly Perdue.
HAYES FOR GOVERNOR: State Sen. Maj. Whip/textile firm owner
Robin Hayes (R) has completed almost seven hours of film of
himself at work and at home, which he will use in his campaign to
unseat Gov. Jim Hunt (D). He has also hired pollster Whit Ayers
and GA political consultant Tom Perdue. Perdue's "recent
victories" include Sen. Bill Frist's (R-TN) upset win in '94. In
the legislature, Hayes "continues to push the issues from which
he is likely to build a campaign platform." He advocates
"clamping down on abortion," requiring schools to teach sexual
abstinence until marriage, and slowing the growth of spending for
social programs (Raleigh NEWS & OBSERVER, 7/29).
TV MONITOR
*21 THIS MORNING: "FOX Morning News" hosted frosh Rep. Tom
Davis (R-VA), ex-RNC chair Frank Fahrenkopf, W.S. JOURNAL's Jerry
Seib, ex-OMB adviser Matthew Miller, NEWSWEEK's Melinda Liu and
TIME's Elaine Shannon.
TONIGHT: CNBC's "Russert" hosts NBC's Jim Miklaszewski.
SUNDAY: ABC's "Brinkley" hosted Reps. Dick Durbin (D-IL) &
Bart Gordon (D-TN), Joe Califano and Tobacco Inst.'s Brennan
Dawson. NBC's "Meet the Press" hosted House Maj. Leader Dick
Armey & House Min. Leader Dick Gephardt and Reps. Charles Schumer
(D-NY) & Bill Zeliff (R-NH). CBS' "Face the Nation" hosted Reps.
Henry Waxman (D-CA) and Charlie Rose (D-NC). CNN's "Reliable
Sources" hosted W.S. JOURNAL's John Fund. CNN's "Crossfire
Sunday" hosted Reps. Susan Molinari (R-NY) and Charlie Rangel (D-
NY). C-SPAN's "Sunday Journal" hosted Govs. Tommy Thompson (R-
WI), Howard Dean (D-VT), Gaston Caperton (D-WV) & Arne Carlson
(R-MN) and AP's John King. C-SPAN's "Road to the White House"
hosted TIME's Mark Thompson, Bush/Quayle '92 mgr. Fred Malek and
Reagan Defense Sec. Caspar Weinberger.
SATURDAY: CNN's "Evans & Novak" hosted Sen. Banking chair
Al D'Amato (R-NY). CNN's "Capital Gang Saturday" hosted Senate
Maj. Whip Trent Lott. CNN's "Inside Politics Weekend" hosted
Citizens for Colin Powell's Chuck Kelly and CCP/pres. historian
Stephen Ambrose.
FRIDAY: "MacNeil/Lehrer" focused on the EPA with EPA Admin.
Carol Browner and frosh Rep. David McIntosh (R-IN). CNN's
"Inside Politics" hosted SC Gov. David Beasley (R), TIME's
Margaret Carlson and W.S. JOURNAL's Jerry Seib. CNN's
"Crossfire" hosted Tony Snow and NEWSWEEK's Evan Thomas.
OUTRAGES: Mark Shields, on the initial lack of an
invitation to Korean War vet Sen. John Glenn (D-OH) to the South
Korean state dinner: "Fat cat CEOs and showbiz types were
invited, but not Senator Glenn. Ever gracious, John Glenn
accepted a last-minute telephone invite to spare Mr. Clinton's
White House staff's stupidity more embarrassment." Bob Novak, on
Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D-CA) call for public Packwood hearings:
"She wants a show trial to titillate feminists. The outrage is
that the Democrats on the Ethics Committee have capitulated to
her demands." Margaret Carlson, on Sen. Jesse Helms' (R-NC)
latest attack on gays, describing the "odor" of congressional
support for the gay lobby: "If there's a great big odor, it's
coming from Helms' hatefulness." Al Hunt, on the continued power
of special interests in the Congress: "Republicans, including the
freshmen who were supposed to be so different, are hustling
millions of dollars from vested interests the way Democrats used
to" ("Capital Gang," CNN, 7/29).
LAUGHS: David Letterman, on the Whitewater hearings: "The
Republicans demanded to see a suicide note left by Vince Foster,
and the Democrats said, 'Well, you'll have to wait a minute. The
ink's not dry" ("Late Show," CBS, 7/28). Jay Leno, on Rep. Mel
Reynolds (D-IL) saying he only had phone sex with an underage
girl: "Remember when we were kids in school and the whole class
would have to write a letter to your congressman? Did anybody
here ever think one day, the Congressman would call back and go,
'Hi, what are you wearing?" Leno, on the story of a man who
removed a bullet from his head while he was waiting for doctors
to arrive: "I think that's known as the Republicans' health-care
plan" ("Tonight Show," NBC, 7/28).
TOP TEN WAYS THE WORLD WOULD BE DIFFERENT
WERE IT COVERED WITH WATER
10) Packwood putting the moves on a manatee.
9) Top prize on "The Price is Right": Towels!
8) Kevin Costner makes hideously expensive movie about life on
dry land.
7) It would be "The Blowfish and Hootie," my friend.
6) Cab drivers would be forced to bathe whether they want to or
not.
5) Lots of talk on Court TV about O.J.'s "bloody flippers".
4) Michael Jackson would have plastic surgery to look more like
a sea bass.
3) It would be perfectly good manners to take a leak out the
window.
2) I'd host the show wearing nothing but a Speedo.
1) All Mets games rained out ("Late Show," CBS, 7/27).
TV SOUNDBITE
"Leopards don't change their spots. And my
guess is that underneath all this, Al D'Amato is going
to come up with some very juicy morsels, some hot
rabbits in that hat of his, before this is over."
-- Rowland Evans, on the Whitewater hearings,
"Evans & Novak," CNN, 7/29
-30-
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Content-Type: text
--- Monday August 7, 1995 Vol. 8 No. 218
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS ---
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
3129 Mount Vernon Ave., Alexandria, VA 22305 703-518-4600
THE HOT BOX
SPOTLIGHT
MEET THE PAST: Wilson on
I
SUFFRAGETTE CITY
NBC's "Meet the Press," is
confronted with flip-flops
August 18th marks the
in his record on abortion
75th anniv. of the 19th
and affirm. action. (#1)
Amendment which guaranteed
WELFARE WARS: The Dole V.
I
women the right to vote.
Gramm fight may get bloody I I In 1920, many thought women
during the week. (#3)
I
would merely parrot their
COMING HOME: Who's logged
|
I
husbands' voting behavior.
the most days in NH through
I
I
But by '64, women were
June? It's Pat. (#2)
voting more often than men.
AIN'T THAT A TAD EARLY? I By '80, they were voting
Ickes hints at an early
more Dem than men.
fall date for prez to throw
I
I
According to U.S. NEWS,
his hat in the ring. (#9)
I
I
today's gender gap is
almost a chasm: women and
men differ dramatically
TAUZIN SWINGS TO THE GOP
I
over their leaders and the
After months on the vine,
I
role of gov't. More than
it's now Tauzin (R-LA 03).(#16)
1/2 who voted in '92 -- but
stayed home in '94 -- were
WHITEWATER RAFTING TRIP
women. What would have
The House adventure begins
happened had they come out
today. Rep. Leach (R-IA) plans
last fall? Kept the
to focus on Madison S&L. (#10)
Congress from going GOP?
HMMM: Life is getting
WELD HE, OR WON'T HE?
harder, particularly for
Amid reports that the MA Gov.
working women. Which party
has met with the NRSC, rumors
would the "angry female
of a challenge to Sen. Kerry
voter" choose? (#13, 22)
(D) run wild. (#17)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"There are one or two titles that are better
than 'chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff."
-- Colin Powell, showing a little more leg,
in a San Diego speech, W. TIMES, 8/5
(c) 1995 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition
extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or
affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
Phone: 703/518-4600 FAX: 703/518-8701
HOTLINE mailbag by E-mail: [email protected]
APN Founders: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Managing Editor: Ken Rudin
Deputy Managing Editor: Jessica Barrows
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: James Kaleigh, Benjamin White,
Ronald Eckstein, Sally Buffalo
Editorial Assistants: Mike Sachs, Andrea Short
TABLE OF CONTENTS
WHITE HOUSE '96
WILSON: Meets the Past in Sunday grilling; aborto swerve. (#1)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Thru june, Buchanan spent most days in-state. (#2)
GRAMM V. DOLE: Welfare reform debate could get bloody. (#3)
BUCHANAN: NH co-chair quits; shows strong among NH group. (#4)
LUGAR: A so-so candidate, but one helluva chateau. (#5)
PEROT: Get ready for "pander-ama!" (#6)
POWELL: Teases audience with hints of presidential desire. (#7)
FIELD NOTES: Alexander plans "breakthrough" in NH. (#8)
CLINTON: Should he sign up Kevin Phillips, too? (#9)
NATIONAL BRIEFING: Whitewater (#10); Abortion (#11);
Packwood (#12); Women's Vote (#13); Cover to Cover (#14).
SENATE WATCH
WELFARE: NRSC launches radio ads in five states. (#15)
LOUISIANA: Tauzin switches to the GOP; Senate bid next? (#16)
MASSACHUSETTS: New Weld interest in Senate race cited. (#17)
NEW JERSEY: D'Amato says NRSC will target Bradley. (#18)
NEW MEXICO: Novak foresees a Richardson-Domenici race. (#19)
ON THE HOUSE
ILLINOIS 02: Heard will testify in Reynolds case today. (#20)
OHIO 14: GOP high on George. (#21)
U.S. NEWS POLL: The gender gap is alive and well. (#22)
TV MONITOR (#23)
WHITE HOUSE '96
*1 WILSON: MEETS THE PAST IN SUNDAY GRILLING; ABORTO SWERVE
Pete Wilson "took a sharp right turn on abortion" during his
appearance on "Meet the Press" (Marelius, SAN DIEGO UNION-
TRIBUNE, 8/7). Wilson, asked by NBC's Gwen Ifill if he, as
president, would sign the bill passed by the Senate 8/5 to deny
coverage to federal employees who seek abortions, said he would
sign it "even though I am pro-choice and have been all my life."
Wilson said he "would prefer to see funding for the abortions for
poor women come from private sources." Arlen Specter has called
limiting federal funding of abortion "a virtual meltdown for
abortion rights supporters." Wilson, on Specter: "He is making a
terrible mistake if he thinks that all the people who are pro-
choice are pro-federal funding for abortions. They are not. The
majority, I think, probably feel the other way." Wilson said he
would oppose overturning Roe V. Wade and that he "disagree[s]
strongly" with a call for a "human life amendment" outlawing
abortion. Wilson, asked "how vigorously" he will fight to remove
the pro-life plank from the GOP platform, noted "I am clearly on
record as saying we should eliminate that plank." Ifill: "That's
as far as you'll go?" Wilson: "I have said I would oppose it,
and we should replace it. Isn't that clear?" Ifill: "You're
sending out a couple mixed messages" (8/6). UNION TRIBUNE's
Marelius: "Wilson's comments, despite his insistence to the
contrary, would seem to be at odds with much of his own record
and curiously timed politically. Throughout his tenure as
governor, Wilson has seldom called attention to his pro-abortion
rights stand to avoid inflaming Christian conservatives who
dominate the California Republican Party. But as he campaigned
for president, Wilson has been giving his pro-abortion rights
views a higher political profile" (8/7).
BROKEN PROMISE: Asked why he "broke his word" about running
for pres., when he campaigned in '94, Wilson repeated his claim:
"I am able to help my state and the country even more by running
for president and winning than by remaining as governor for the
last two years and the last term in which I would be struggling
to wrench concessions from a hostile administration who does not
share my values or California's, or frankly, I don't think
America's." NBC's Tim Russert, after noting Wilson signed
legislation three weeks ago requiring state vendors to "submit
criteria showing how they were doing hiring minorities," asked,
"So there is some good affirmative action?" Wilson: "There has
been some good." Russert: "Can there be in the future?" Wilson:
"It depends on what you define as affirmative action
Russert, after quoting Wilson from 30 years ago as advocating
"special treatment" for college applicants from "disadvantaged
backgrounds": "You've changed." Wilson: "I have changed and I
think most Americans have." Asked if his supporter, MA Gov. Bill
Weld, is "wrong" about affirmative action, Wilson replied, "Yes,
I think he is" (NBC, 8/6).
MAINE MAN: Prior to his "Meet" appearance, Wilson traveled
to ME and announced that Senate Pres. Jeff Butland will be his
state dir. and that state Sen. John Hathaway will be his ME
finance dir. He also signed on activists Mert Heny and Sharon
Miller as state co-chairs (Wilson release, 8/4). Wilson also
hired ME GOP exec. dir. Ben Coes as his NE coordinator. Coes was
an "instrumental player" in the GOP recapture of the ME Senate in
'94. "As in most of the states Wilson has targeted," many major
GOP officials have already endorsed Bob Dole. "The result is
that Wilson's campaign has adopted a guerrilla strategy, focusing
on up and coming politicians willing to gamble on a second-tier
horse, and the key grass-roots organizers who can develop a base
of support." Wilson strategists, believing Wilson's "political
profile is a better fit in the Northeast than elsewhere," are
"devoting a major portion of their efforts to New England. They
hope the region can give Wilson an early boost but fear that if
he does not win" there, "he may not recover elsewhere" (Lesher,
L.A. TIMES, 8/7). Richard Lugar and Wilson both appeared at the
Rockland lobster festival. After "Meet" in DC, his swing moved
on to Philadelphia and then to IA and CO. With the CA budget
finally completed last week, Wilson "will spend much of his time"
this month on the road. His campaign "already has begun testing"
cable TV spots in some unspecified "key primary states." His
announcement at the Statue of Liberty with accompanying multi-
state tour is "expected" to be 8/28 (Ward, S.F. CHRONICLE, 8/6).
PETE'S PAL JESSE: S.J. MERCURY NEWS' Trounstine writes
Wilson's "most effective campaign operative to date" is Jesse
Jackson. Because Pres. Clinton "isn't quite as delicious a
target," Wilson may attempt to "exploit Jackson as a foil." The
Wilson campaign may give Jackson a "cameo role" in Wilson's TV
ads. "As he did with former Gov. Jerry Brown and former
California Chief Justice Rose Bird, Wilson could use Jackson as
the visual symbol of the undisciplined liberalism he so valiantly
opposes." The "trouble" with this plan is that Wilson could be
"decried as a racist In short, Wilson would buy a lot of
grief he might otherwise avoid. But private conversations
with key members of Team Wilson suggest he won't for one simple
reason. He doesn't need to. As one Wilsonista put it: Jackson
will keep the spotlight on himself." One Wilson adviser, on
using Jackson in a TV ad: "Who needs that aggravation? You've
got to win in a way that will cause people to think you never
crossed the line How it's put on the screen is important.
There are more subtle, more creative ways of doing it" (8/7).
GIVE ME LIBERTY: W. POST's Taylor notes Wilson's decision
to not only use the Statue of Liberty for his announcement site,
but to use Lady Liberty on his campaign logo. Miss Liberty "did
release a brief statement through a spokesman, the poet Emma
Lazarus: 'Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses
yearning to breathe free" (8/6).
SHOT FROM THE DOLE CAMP: Dole adviser Dave Carney: "Wilson
is the only candidate who doesn't even win in his home state
in the primary, and his issue isn't a couple of votes on taxes or
a couple of votes here in the Senate, it's his whole message.
It's out of sync with most of the voters in the Republican
primary and most of the voters in New Hampshire, and he's got
zero on the ground to date. It will be difficult, in just 200
days, to come up here and reinvent himself" ("IP," CNN, 8/5).
*2 NEW HAMPSHIRE: THRU JUNE, BUCHANAN SPENT MOST DAYS IN-STATE
NATIONAL JOURNAL surveyed campaign workers in the states
about personal candidate appearances in the first six months of
'95. All told, the candidates spent 146 days in NH, and only 13
days in DE. NH Gov. Steve Merrill's threats to the candidates
seem to have paid off. But DE remains committed to holding its
Saturday primary just five days after NH; NH wants no primary
within a week of its own. NH is currently planning on a 2/20
primary, but it reserves the right to move it up; the official
date may not be set until 12/95. Merrill spokesperson Steve
Edwards: "They wanted to make Delaware a more prominent player in
the process. What they have done is the exact opposite." DE GOP
Chair Basil Battaglia "predicted that Delaware will get its fair
share of attention from the candidates once some of them realize
that they have little chance of winning in New Hampshire" (8/5).
CANDIDATE
DAYS IN NH
DAYS IN DE
Pat Buchanan
35
1
Richard Lugar
27
2
Lamar Alexander
24
0
Arlen Specter
21
1
Bob Dole
14
0
Phil Gramm
13
4
Pete Wilson
7
1
Bob Dornan
5
2
Alan Keyes -- did not respond to survey
*3 GRAMM V. DOLE: WELFARE REFORM DEBATE COULD GET BLOODY
"A showdown over welfare reform against a backdrop of
presidential nomination politics is expected today" in the Senate
as "liberal" Republicans backing Bob Dole and Finance Chair Bob
Packwood (R-OR) will "do battle" with "conservatives" supporting
amendments to the bill, led by Phil Gramm. Dole's bill, "which
reportedly has the backing" of 32 of 54 GOP sens., would turn
over welfare programs to the states in the form of block grants,
impose a five-year lifetime limit on benefits, and require
teenage mothers to live at home and attend school to get welfare
(Hallow, W. TIMES, 8/7). Conservatives, backed by the Christian
Coalition, believe Dole's plan should be "bolder" and include a
"family cap" to end the automatic increase in payments to women
on welfare who have additional children. Other conservative
groups, including the Nat'l Right to Life Cmte and the U.S.
Conference of Catholic Bishops, have "warned that such measures
could increase abortions" (AP/BOSTON GLOBE, 8/5). Gramm's
amendment, which has over 23 supporters, would also seek to bar
welfare benefits to unmarried mothers under 18 and to legal
immigrants. Gramm, appearing on "Face the Nation": "We can't
fool around with marginal changes. We are either going to
dramatically change welfare and break this cycle or we are going
to end up losing America as we know it." Asked if he could pass
his amendments to the Dole bill: "Yes, I think so." Asked if he
could get an amendment to deny payments to immigrants: "Senator
Dole has made this a big issue, for example, in the Cuban-
American community in Miami. Somehow he thinks that giving
welfare to immigrants is a good political issue. I think it's a
bad public policy." Gramm, asked if he would vote for the Dole
bill if his amendments do not pass: "I've got to look at the
final bill" (8/6).
MORE BURKE BASHING: Conservatives upset with Dole's plan
note that Finance Cmte staff dir. Lindy Paull "is a close friend
and ideological ally" of Dole CoS Sheila Burke. Sen. Lauch
Faircloth (R-NC), who is a co-sponsor of the Gramm effort:
"Packwood and Sheila Burke put together a facade to pretend
to the American people that we are passing welfare reform and
we're not." Senate Maj. Whip Trent Lott, however, called the
Dole bill "a formula that is as fair as you can ever get when
you're working with all 50 states and trying to accomplish the
goals we're trying to reach here" (W. TIMES, 8/7). Heritage
Foundation's Robert Rector: "Dole has worked with Packwood to
pull this welfare reform bill as far to the left as it could go.
Packwood's philosophy is essentially the National
Organization for Women's position: That the taxpayer has a moral
obligation to subsidize illegitimacy, and to refuse to subsidize
illegitimacy is to interfere with a woman's reproductive rights.
That is the foundation of the Dole welfare bill" (W. TIMES, 8/7).
REAX: CBS' Orr: "While Dole's proposal has more support
than rival bills, there are still deep divisions among
Republicans about what direction welfare reform should take.
No plan yet has the votes needed to pass" (8/6). Mark Shields,
on the prospects for welfare reform: "There's no question there's
going to be welfare reform. Clinton will not veto welfare
reform. But there is a division between Phil Gramm and Bob Dole"
("M/L," PBS, 8/4). Cokie Roberts: "The confluence of interest is
really between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole and Newt Gingrich on
this. They want a welfare bill. All three of them want to be
able to go home to the people and say, 'We've succeeded. We have
reformed welfare.' The person who doesn't want a welfare bill or
at least one that looks anything like the one they're talking
about
is Phil Gramm" ("Brinkley," ABC, 8/4). WH Dep. CoS
Harold Ickes, asked if Clinton could "live with" Dole's plan:
"Living with' and 'dealing with' are two different phrases. I
think the Dole proposal, as it exists now, he could not, probably
could not, live with. It does provide a basis for honest
discussions about welfare reform. but it is certainly not
something the President could sign at this point" ("IP Weekend,"
CNN, 8/5). Pete Wilson, on "Meet the Press," criticized the Dole
bill for not having a family cap: "It's unfair when a young
working couple that is saving to pay for a baby they can't afford
has to pay taxes for an unwed mother's child. We shouldn't be
subsidizing promiscuity" (NBC, 8/6).
MOYNIHAN: "I wish the administration had not come out to
change welfare as we know it. How do you change welfare as you
know it, when 62% of the children in Los Angeles City, are on
welfare?" Moynihan, asked if Clinton should veto the Dole plan:
"I think he should. I don't know that he will. He's given real
signals that, if there's a maintenance of effort and such like,
he'll sign the bill" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 8/6). Moynihan, in
a N.Y. TIMES op-ed, warns of the "Devolution Revolution," the
handing down of social welfare programs from the federal gov't to
the states (8/6). TIME's Kramer, citing a Clinton adviser:
"People don't understand that real reform requires spending more,
not less, and the President can't have voters think he's soft on
welfare reform." Kramer: "So don't expect [Clinton] to march
with the poor" (8/14 issue).
*4 BUCHANAN: NH CO-CHAIR QUITS; SHOWS STRONG AMONG NH GROUP
Ward Scott, one of three NH co-chairs for Pat Buchanan's
campaign, resigned, citing family demands. "But asked if he
still supported Buchanan," Ward responded, "I don't really think
that's relevant. I'm taking a respite from politics." Ward, in
a statement: "I wish Mr. and Mrs. Buchanan, Bay Buchanan and the
entire Buchanan team Godspeed and success in all future
endeavors." Ward had helped not just in NH but also with
organizing Buchanan's successful showing at the VA straw poll in
June. The remaining two state chairs: State Sen. David Wheeler
and '94 House cand. Mike Hammond (Rau, CONCORD MONITOR, 8/5).
More: Scott "insisted the break was 'very amicable, and I have
nothing but good things to say about the campaign I'm leaving"
(Tibbetts, Manchester UNION LEADER, 8/7).
SCORES AT TAXPAYERS PICNIC: Buchanan won a straw poll at
the annual picnic of the Granite State Taxpayers Assn. Only
Buchanan and Alan Keyes attended. While about 800 members were
there, the group, founded by ex-Gov. Meldrim Thomson (R), boasts
a membership of 12,000 (Ghioto, BOSTON GLOBE, 8/6). According to
Buchanan's campaign, the straw vote was the largest for the GOP
since VA straw poll in June, also won by Buchanan. Buchanan was
first with 48%, Phil Gramm had 21%, Keyes 10%, etc. (Buchanan
release, 8/7). Buchanan "said his win means New Hampshire is
now a Buchanan-Dole race." But Gramm backers "claimed the ballot
box was rigged and the whole affair was nothing but a Pat
Buchanan rally" (Manzo, NH SUNDAY NEWS, 8/6).
*5 LUGAR: A SO-SO CANDIDATE, BUT ONE HELLUVA CHATEAU
The ECONOMIST's "Lexington" proclaims the candidates' signs
"say it all": "A staid 'Dole for President' looks like an
unexciting statement of the inevitable. The large, conservative
type of 'GRAMM' could announce a Texan bank, or stand on a
tombstone. White letters on a red background exclaim, 'Lamar!'
(Some candidate! Some name!). The stars scattered on the red-
white-and-blue 'Buchanan' resemble random bullet holes. By
contrast, an elegant row of five yellow stars stands above the
name 'LUGAR.' written in white against a soothing deep blue. If
presidential candidates can be categorized like hotels," Richard
Lugar "has awarded himself a five-star rating. Chateau Lugar,
his sign seems to announce, is the top-class joint, demanding
your custom. Chateau Lugar is nothing if not a serious
establishment, one that makes a virtue out of an unwillingness to
follow fads and fashions. Unfashionably, for example, foreign
policy is served as a main course. Mr. Lugar has the quaint
notion that national security remains a core job of the
presidency. Above all, Chateau Lugar offers a pleasant
feeling, an inclusiveness that contrasts with some of the more
mean-spirited Republican establishments. If
Chateau
Lugar
is
really so classy, why has it not attracted more attention? One
reason is, frankly, dullness. Mr. Lugar is an incurably flat
public speaker. He has the goody-goodyness of the Eagle Scout he
once was. In an America wary of politicians, his studied
earnestness can come across as just another political gimmick.
It would be tempting to treat his candidacy as a mere frolic,
an exercise in vanity, if he did not take it so terribly
seriously himself. But he is dogged to a fault, he has
important things to say, and he can hope against hope that
Americans will eventually recognize class when they see it. That
five-star rating may be a bit overdone, but compared with the
alternatives -- Ye Olde Inn, Hollow Lodge, Meanstreak Motel
Chateau Lugar has many charms" (8/5-11 issue).
TALES FROM THE TRAIL: INDIANAPOLIS STAR's Schneider
profiles Lugar's stops at the Rockland, ME Lobster Festival
Parade 8/5 and in Portsmouth, NH 8/6. Lugar spokesperson Mark
Helmke notes while Pete Wilson speaks about ending illegal
immigration and affirmative action, big issues in CA, Maine
"never recovered from the recession. People are not out of work
here because of immigration. The message is the economy, it
hasn't changed (from the '92 election). We're stealing that
issue away from Clinton because he's done nothing" (8/6).
*6 PEROT: GET READY FOR "PANDER-AMA"!
Ross Perot's United We Stand America will hold its
"Preparing for the 21st Century" conference this weekend, 8/11-
13. All the GOP candidates for pres. will speak to the purported
8,000 UWSA members to attend. Also attending: Jesse Jackson,
Speaker Newt Gingrich, Hill Dem leaders Tom Daschle and Dick
Gephardt and party chairs Haley Barbour, Chris Dodd and Don
Fowler. Pres. Clinton is sending adviser Mack McLarty as his
personal emissary. TIME's Birnbaum writes the event will be "an
unprecedented three-day pander-ama." Bob Dole, Phil Gramm and
Lamar Alexander "proudly count themselves as cellphone mates" of
Perot. The GOP candidates "are more than willing to risk the
appearance of sycophancy for the opportunity to impress Perot
right out of the race." Still, Gramm strategist Charlie Black
"grumbles": "We're being used as props." As for Clinton, "Why
should he try to placate the man? Clinton's best chance for re-
election is for Perot to say mad enough at him and his policies
to run." But "while showing some calculated disrespect for Perot
might be good for Clinton's ambitions, it probably is not so
healthy for his party." Unlike the GOP, Dems "are not well
positioned to bring Perot followers into their camp." The Dems'
"secret weapon," of course, is the GOP, and their drive to reduce
enviro, health and safety regulations and cut Medicare deeper
than the Dems. Dem pollster Mark Mellman: "Independents are more
likely to vote against somebody than for somebody; the question
is, who are they going to vote against?" (8/14 issue). U.S.
NEWS' Walsh writes, as a force, UWSA's influence "is spotty."
Although quite visible in CA, IL, NJ and PA, "in most states, the
group appears to have little impact. That lack of organized
activism, however, does not diminish the strength of Perot's 1992
supporters as a voting bloc," particularly on some surefire '96
issues as immigration (8/14 issue). RNC Chair Haley Barbour: "I
don't think there will be any market for an independent candidate
like there was in 1992 certainly not Ross Perot. Ross Perot
was a symptom. Politics abhors a vacuum" (8/6). Inst. for
Policy Studies' Robert Borosage: "Going down and pandering to
Ross Perot does not strike me as a presidential posture" ("FOX
Morning News," 8/7).
IN HIS OWN WORDS: Perot, on running for pres.: "As lucky as
I've been, if anybody ought to do this, I ought to do it, I will
do it. I want the problems solved. [But] selfishly, nothing
would please me more than to just go back to work. I promise
to go away when they pass real laws on these issues, not sham,
whitewash, tricky stuff" (U.S. NEWS, 8/14 issue). Perot appeared
on "Evans & Novak" and reiterated his desire to see the two-party
system work than to form a third party (CNN, 8/5). TIME's
Birnbaum: "The Republicans cannot imagine anything better than
Perot going away. Bill Clinton cannot imagine anything worse."
But Perot "no longer appears hell-bent" on running for pres.
Perot: "Did you ever hear of anyone who has a [personal]
political agenda renting a big arena, attracting a crowd from all
over the country and letting what would be his opponents speak?
No! Surely that makes a point" (8/14 issue).
SAY SOMETHING NICE: Speaker Newt Gingrich, on Perot: "He's
been enormously helpful to us in the fight for a balanced budget
where he's been a real champion of what we're trying to do.
And he is sincere in his desire to reform Washington, and I would
say on eight things out of ten we're in agreement." Gingrich,
asked if Perot will run: "He knows the mathematics: in a two-way
race, Bill Clinton almost certainly loses; in a three-way race
Bill Clinton has a real chance to survive" ("Today," NBC, 8/7).
*7 POWELL: TEASES AUDIENCE WITH HINTS OF PRESIDENTIAL DESIRE
At the Insight '95 gathering, a lineup of "global leaders,"
at the San Diego Convention Center -- where the GOP convention
will be held 8/96 Colin Powell "dropped several hints that are
likely to keep current presidential contenders on edge." Powell:
"There are one or two titles that are better than 'chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff." Powell, citing George Bush's '92
defeat despite his favorable ratings after the Gulf War and the
GOP's '94 sweep in Congress: "The American people are doing some
political channel surfing." He also "said his memoirs, 'My
American Journey,' due out in September, will 'deal with
political issues -- will he or won't he?" But he "dodged"
questions about his views on affirmative action, saying he
doesn't want to get involved in "California politics." The
appearance "underscored the general's unusual popularity." Also
at the conference were Henry Kissinger, Carl Sagan and Mario
Cuomo. Powell's memoirs will be excerpted in an upcoming issue
of Time Magazine, and he will also be the subject of a television
special (Billingsley, W. TIMES, 8/5).
*8 FIELD NOTES: ALEXANDER PLANS "BREAKTHROUGH" IN NH
Alexander NH chair Tom Rath, on Bob Dole's lead in NH: "It's
an enormous Dole juggernaut and all we can do is swim in its
wake. You don't have to win the election every day, you just
have to win it one day." Rath, asked to pick a winner in NH:
"The roadways of New Hampshire are littered with the bodies of
political pundits who tried to pick the winner of this primary
this far out. I will tell you this. We are planning the
breakthrough strategy in this race, and we are going to
breakthrough in New Hampshire, however that gets defined"
("Inside Politics," CNN, 8/5).
FORBES: W. POST's Taylor profiles billionaire Steve Forbes,
who if he runs, would be driven by "a sense of mission and a
moment of historic opportunity. Forbes views the tax-cutting
governorship of his "life-long friend," NJ Gov. Christie Whitman,
as his model for the nation. Forbes drafted Whitman's then-
campaign proposal to cut NJ's income tax by 30%. Forbes has
hired pollster John McLaughlin; his campaign would be run by
Empower America pres. William Dal Col. Associates say Forbes is
"prepared to spend" $10 million of his own money to win the GOP
nomination; Perot reportedly spent $60 million in '92 in his
general election bid (8/7).
FLETCHER: U.S. Commission on Civil Rights' Arthur Fletcher,
asked about the fact that he seconded the nomination of Bob Dole
for VP in '76: "I did not rubber stamp everything that Bob thinks
about or what he would like to do or thinks good for the country
when I seconded his nomination. I thought he'd make a good vice-
president then, and I think there's a possibility, if I don't win
the nomination, he'd make a good president. I'd put him on my
ticket as vice" ("Sunday Journal," C-SPAN, 8/6).
*9 CLINTON: SHOULD HE SIGN UP KEVIN PHILLIPS, TOO?
Political theorist Kevin Phillips, a former GOP strategist,
writes the GOP has squandered much of its political gains of '94:
"No opposition Congress and House leadership has lost so much
credibility so quickly. Late 1994's radical (as in 'bold')
agenda is becoming late 1995's radical (as in 'crazy') agenda.
More and more of what the House sets in motion is starting to
look to mainstream voters like a right-wing caricature.
Gingrich's written pledge to NRA to block gun control legislation
is of a piece with Contract ingredients such as the House bill to
gut federal regulation of business; the recent House
appropriations rider to block money for key aspects of
environmental protection; and the radical budget package that
slashes $270 billion of future Medicare funding to facilitate
$250 billion of tax cuts tilted to the upper-brackets while
leaving virtually every current corporate and financial tax-break
in
place. This legislative record is the equivalent of a
Goodyear blimp floating over an antiaircraft battery. What we
have seen in the last six months, more in the House but also in
the Senate, is a spurning of the public's priorities -- law and
order, clean air and water, deficit-reduction that protects
Medicare and makes corporations and millionaires pay more --
in order to gratify the very different desires of upper-bracket
lobbies and special interests" (8/6).
GREENBERG MEMO: WH Dep. CoS Harold Ickes, asked about the
internal memo from pollster Stan Greenberg that stated Clinton is
"fundamentally mispositioned" for '96: "It is strong stuff. Stan
is one of several pollsters, as you know. He has been advising
the President for a number of years and will continue to do so.
I don't think that, if you read the report in totality that
that report says anything that has not been said by many, many
public polls" ("IP Weekend," CNN, 8/5).
"STRIKEOUT KING": A N.Y. POST study concludes Clinton's
legislative record with Congress "is the worst for president in
over 40 years" (8/7).
REALLY EARLY ANNOUNCEMENT DATE? Ickes, asked when Clinton
will formally enter the race: "I don't know. That will probably
be sometime in September or October. We haven't pinned down a
date.
It may even be later" ("IP Weekend," CNN, 8/5).
MORRIS SIGNS WITH ANOTHER ARKANSAN? Arkansas LG Mike
Huckabee (R), who is plotting a bid for the open Senate seat,
said that Clinton consultant Dick Morris has agreed to be "one of
my consultants." But Morris said that no relationship had been
"formalized." Huckabee might not be a candidate, however. If
indicted AR Gov. Jim Guy Tucker (D) is convicted of his
"Whitewater-related" charges, Huckabee would become gov. and has
said he would not seek the Senate seat (Broder, W. POST, 8/6).
LOBBY REFORM: Clinton announced he would not wait for the
Congress and said he will curb lobbying on the executive branch
by executive order. CNN's Blitzer: "Clinton is continuing his
new political strategy of trying to show he can get things done
without Congress. The President also has one eye on Ross
Perot's convention" (8/5). CBS' Schieffer: "Since he's heard
nothing from Gingrich since [their NH handshake], the President
said he'll instead ask Attorney General Reno to draw up a new
list of guidelines for dealing with lobbyists" (8/4). CNN's
Dobbs: "Clinton trying to seize the high ground on the issue
of lobbying reform" ("Moneyline," CNN, 8/4). Gingrich: "I wish
the President would spend less time campaigning and more time
telling us what's his plan on Medicare. We're going to get to
campaign reform, but we have a September deadline to get Medicare
fixed." Clinton: "It's takes no energy at all. He doesn't have
to do anything in the Congress right now. All he has to do is to
do what he said he'd do when he shook hands with me" ("Inside
Politics," 8/4).
NATIONAL BRIEFING
*10 WHITEWATER: "STORMIEST" WEATHER FOR THE WH IN THE FORECAST
Whitewater hearings resume today in the Senate and begin in
the House, in a week that "could bring the stormiest Whitewater
weather the Clinton administration has encountered so far." The
most celebrated witness this week will be ex-WH counsel Bernard
Nussbaum, the "key" figure in the events that followed the 7/93
suicide of dep. WH counsel Vincent Foster and who will "likely be
roughed up" by cmte GOPers. Testimony last week established that
Nussbaum "kept officials at arm's length" in the aftermath of
Foster's death, but there is yet to be established any motive --
"whether, as Mr. Nussbaum says, he was merely acting as an
aggressive lawyer with little public relations know-how or, as
some Republicans believe, he was trying to hide Whitewater or
other documents that might be damaging to the Clintons" (Baer,
Balto. SUN, 8/7). The Senate cmte, headed by Sen. Al D'Amato (R-
NY), will also hear this week from atty/WH adviser Susan
Thomases, "who purportedly told Mr. Nussbaum that first lady
Hillary Rodham Clinton was concerned about 'unfettered access' to
the papers by police." Today the cmte will hear from Clinton
counselor Mack McLarty, ex-WH senior adviser David Gergen, ex-WH
dep. asst. C. William Burton and VP Gore CoS Jack Quinn, all of
whom "participated in various conversations" about a 7/22/93
review of Foster's records by Nussbaum, during which federal
investigators, "in the midst of a death investigation, were not
allowed to see any of the papers" (Seper, W. TIMES, 8/7).
HOUSE: The House panel, chaired by Rep. Jim Leach (R-IA),
will focus on the failure of Madison Guaranty, a Little Rock S&L,
and whether Clinton admin. officials "improperly interfered with
a Resolution Trust Corp. [RTC] investigation of Madison." At the
same time, Whitewater ind. counsel Kenneth Starr is looking into
accusations that "money from Madison was illegally diverted to
the Whitewater project and that other funds from the thrift were
routed improperly to powerful Arkansas politicians," including
then-Gov. Clinton (Seper, W. TIMES, 8/7). For their part, Dem
members of the House Banking Cmte said that Leach has lined up
testimony that will "deliver only one side of the complicated"
Whitewater story. Ranking cmte member/ex-chair Henry Gonzalez
(D-TX): "The only witnesses who will be called are those who
support Republican claims" (Kiely, DEM-GAZETTE, 8/5). And the
"Back to Business" cmte notes that Leach "and the rest of the
Republicans" on House Banking "will once again waste taxpayer
funds in their partisan pursuit to hurt the President" (release,
8/4). Leach: "What we've had is a long train of blocking the
information flow. What this is going to be is the unblocking of
information" (W. POST, 8/7).
HRC: Meanwhile, released WH documents in anticipation of
this week's hearings show that "Hillary Rodham Clinton may have
played a bigger role in legal representation of Madison Guaranty
than she has said." The papers show that HRC "received
$7,583 in legal fees in the mid-1980's" from Madison. HRC has
claimed she played a "minor role" in the Rose Law Firm's
representation of the S&L, which failed at a cost of $65M to
taxpayers. The documents, however, indicate that she "collected
more than 40 percent of the fees Madison paid to the firm between
1985 and 1987." HRC said in a statement that she was not "in
charge" of Rose's work for Madison, but that she was the "billing
partner." The RTC -- which hired the Rose firm to investigate
the fiscal demise of Madison -- accused the firm of "failing to
disclose conflicts of interest" regarding its work with Madison
(Kiely, AR DEMOCRAT GAZETTE, 8/5). HRC also indicated that
Madison was brought in as a Rose client by first-year atty
Richard Massey and that he did the bulk of the work for the
thrift. Massey said in a '92 interview that he "did not know how
or why the firm was put on retainer by Madison." Earlier
testimony by ex-Assoc. AG Webb Hubbell indicated that both Massey
and HRC had recruited Madison as a client. Regarding questions
as to whether Madison owner/Clinton Whitewater partner James
McDougal improperly paid off Whitewater loans that should have
been the Clintons' responsibility, the statement says, "We were
passive investors and relied upon the McDougals to operate it"
(Engelberg, N.Y. TIMES, 8/5). Hubbell, by the way, begins today
a 21-month prison sentence for mail fraud and income-tax evasion.
He plead guilty to charges brought by Starr that he "bilked the
Rose Law Firm and his clients out of $482,410 and failed to pay
federal taxes totaling $143,747" (Seper, W. TIMES, 8/7).
TAXING DILEMMA: The released WH documents also bring new
scrutiny to claims made by the Clintons during the '92 campaign
that deductions made on their taxes in '84 and '85 for loan
interest payments actually made by the Whitewater Corp. were a
"simple error." The new documents suggest that the Clintons
"should have known what they were doing at the time" and that
they "were clearly advised that Whitewater had made the
payments." HRC wrote to McDougal in 10/84 to ask that the real
estate company make the annual payment on a loan taken out from
the Security Bank of Paragould. The loan, taken out in Mrs.
Clinton's name with the understanding that the corporation would
make the payments, was used to build a model on one of the
Whitewater lots. Responding to HRC's request, McDougal sent a
Whitewater check to cover the interest and make a $2,000
principle reduction. The Clintons "nonetheless deducted the
interest portion -- $2,811 -- from their personal taxes the next
spring." It wasn't until late '93 when the Clintons sent a check
to the Treasury to reimburse the deductions taken in '84 and '85
with interest (AP/ Balto. SUN, 8/6).
YOU WANT MORE? N.Y. POST header: "Did Foster kill himself
in White House parking lot?" (8/7).
ON THE TUBE: TIME's Karen Tumulty: "While the Waco hearings
have not gone the way the Republicans had hoped they would, the
Whitewater hearings have, in fact, scored at least a few flesh
wounds on the President" ("Sunday Journal," C-SPAN, 8/6). W.
POST's Juan Williams: "Mrs. Clinton needs to come forward.
Maggie Williams has just taken a beating. Mrs. Clinton
needs to remember that these people may work for her, but they're
not paid to take a beating like this. It would be a stand-up
thing to do" ("Capital Gang Sunday," CNN, 8/6).
*11 ABORTION: SENATE LIMITS COVERAGE FOR FEDERAL WORKERS
The Senate on 8/5 joined the House in "rolling back abortion
rights" granted by Pres. Clinton, voting 50-44 to deny insurance
coverage of abortion services to federal employees except in
cases of rape/incest/life-of-the-mother. "Tempers flared" in six
hours of debate over the measure, which was attached to a $25B
appropriations bill that finances the Treasury Dept., Postal
Service and other executive offices. Earlier in the day, the
Senate voted 52-41 to reject an amendment that would have banned
abortion coverage under the Federal Employees Health Benefits
Program (FEHBP) except to save the life of the mother. But the
amendment was softened to allow exceptions for rape and incest
victims (Hosler, Balto. SUN, 8/6). Three Dems and five GOPers
switched their votes after the exception for rape and incest was
added to the bill (Gray, N.Y. TIMES, 8/6). Both versions of the
amendment were offered by Sen. Don Nickles (R-OK). Nickles: "I
don't want taxpayers to have to subsidize abortion as a fringe
benefit. This is not an issue about a woman's right to choose.
This is about taxpayer dollars being used to destroy an innocent
human life." In '84, a ban on abortion coverage under FEHBP was
imposed, but Pres. Clinton lifted it by exec. order in '93 (SUN,
8/6).
ASSESSMENT: SUN's Hosler notes that the vote "made clear
that the chamber is not going to block entirely the wholesale
dismantling of abortion rights that many in the House Republican
majority are seeking" (8/6). W. POST's Havemann writes the vote
"showed the renewed power of anti-abortion forces in the
Republican-controlled Congress" (8/6). N.Y. TIMES' Gray: "The
vote dealt a heavy blow to moderate-to-liberal groups and
politicians who had hoped that the Senate would provide a bulwark
against a wave of conservative-driven changes in social policy
contained in spending bills" (8/6). CBS' Attkisson: "Even though
it only affects federal workers, the net result is clear. Both
houses of Congress have now signaled the President they have the
votes to start limiting access to abortion" (8/5). TIME's Karen
Tumulty writes the vote "comes during the same week that the
Senate voted not to hold open hearings on charges of sexual
misconduct against Senator Packwood. So, I think, for a lot of
the women's groups, this does send a pretty scary couple of
messages" ("Sunday Journal," C-SPAN, 8/6).
PROSPECTS: The pres. may decide to veto the bill, "but it
is not clear whether Mr. Clinton will be able to sustain his
position in the final negotiations with Congress over the federal
budget because there will be so many controversial issues also in
play" (SUN, 8/6). The Senate version is less restrictive than
the language adopted by the House in 7/95, which would allow
abortion coverage only to save the life of the mother.
HOUSE: GOPers "completed Phase II of the Republican
revolution" before leaving for their August recess on 8/4,
"having survived sharp philosophical differences to complete work
on a vast reordering of federal spending," including a Labor,
Education and Health and Human Services appropriations bill that
allows states to deny Medicaid funds to poor women seeking
abortions in cases of rape and incest (SUN, 8/5). Speaker Newt
Gingrich said the appropriations bill is a "sign that this is a
more conservative Congress, and that there are some underlying
changes going on at a philosophical level of how you try to do
things in this country. I think that the bill represents a
stronger concern about abortion than had been the tradition in
the House" (N.Y. TIMES, 8/5). Gingrich, with Senate Maj. Leader
Bob Dole at his side, "fired another salvo" at the Dems: "If I
have one disappointment this summer it has been the sort of
unending left-wing rhetoric, and sort of negative partisanship.
We've seen a sort of Bonior-dominated, left-wing faction in the
House that has been unendingly uncooperative." Dems "struck
back in kind." House Min. Whip David Bonior: "We've heard a lot
of talk about revolution in the past eight months. If Newt
Gingrich says the Republicans are revolting, who are we to
disagree" (N.Y. TIMES, 8/5). He added, "The Republicans began
this session promising to make history -- and they certainly
have. This is the most hardhearted, shortsighted, suck-up-to-
the-rich-and-soak-the-middle-class Congress in history" (SUN,
8/5). W. POST's Morgan: "With such attention to detail, and with
appeals to the party loyalty of a raft of GOP factions that
threatened to sink the huge bill, the House leadership achieved
one of its most significant victories since taking power" (8/5).
*12 PACKWOOD: CONDEMNED BY WOMEN'S CAUCUS
The National Women's Political Caucus voted "overwhelmingly"
8/5 that Sen. Bob Packwood (R-OR) should be "kicked out of the
Senate" if he sexually harassed women. "Most" of the delegates
voted yes on the questions of whether the Senate "erred" in
closing the hearings into the charges and that he should face
"the toughest punishment possible." In addition, they passed a
resolution urging women to contact their senators to "voice their
objection" to closed hearings and "raise their concern that the
charges aren't being taken seriously." Leader of the OR
delegation Barbara Turner: "Men have been covering up for other
men since time began, and men have been stifling women's voices
since time began." Only two women "spoke against" the
resolution, calling sexual misconduct "common in Washington and
in the rest of the country." One of those, Marilyn Schultz, who
went to high school with Packwood, "said it was a politically
motivated controversy making Packwood the scapegoat for all men
who ever acted boorishly before the Clarence Thomas-Anita Hill
hearings in 1991 sensitized people" (Miller, PHILA. INQUIRER,
8/6). Packwood OR comm. dir. Matt Evans reaffirmed 8/4 that
Packwood has "absolutely no intention of resigning": "It would
take a full vote of the Senate to expel him and there has been no
serious talk of this" (Nolan, BOSTON GLOBE, 8/5). Cokie Roberts:
"I just got a good source that does say that Packwood is likely
to resign and maybe before the recess. The charges are not
pretty, and the Senate doesn't want to go through the exercise of
having to have this whole debate." ABC's Cochran: "I don't think
Bob Packwood will fold his cards until a decision has been made
by the Ethics Committee" ("Brinkley," ABC, 8/6). Fred Barnes and
Eleanor Clift predict the Senate will censure Packwood and strip
him of his Finance Cmte chairmanship. Jack Germond, Clarence
Page, and John McLaughlin predict Packwood will be censured but
keep his chairmanship ("McLaughlin Group," 8/5).
MORE SENATE VOTE FALLOUT: Nina Totenberg: "There should
have been public hearings, but not on the sex stuff.
It's
just too icky" ("Inside Washington," 8/5). TIME's Elaine
Shannon: "Let's face it, Congressional Ethics Committee is an
oxymoron" ("To The Contrary," PBS, 8/5). Jack Germond:
"Republicans in the Senate have been on the moon for the last
five years." Eleanor Clift: "Packwood doesn't really contest the
charges, so don't have public hearings. But 31 months and
there's no penalty. That's what's undermining the Senate"
("McLaughlin Group," 8/5). TIME lists Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA),
who unsuccessfully pushed for public hearings in the Senate, as
one of the week's "Losers": "Senator loses battle to air Bob
Packwood's laundry in public" (8/14 issue).
*13 WOMEN'S VOTE: AFTER 75 YEARS, IT'S GENDER GAP CITY
U.S. NEWS' Borger analyzes the women's vote -- with
accompanying poll (see #22) -- in the 75 years since it was
allowed. In 1920, when women gained the franchise, "the betting
was that men still would pull the levers. By 1964, women were
voting more often than men. By 1980, they were voting more often
for Democrats." According to the poll, the gender gap over the
role of gov't is "large": 53% of men see gov't as the problem;
only 43% of women do. But the gap becomes a "gorge" when
considering leaders: half of men approve of Speaker Newt
Gingrich; 35% of women do. Pres. Clinton is almost the exact
opposite. "If last year's election reflected frustrations of
angry white men, next year's could turn on the anxieties of their
wives. Polls show that more than half of those who voted in
1992 but stayed home in 1994 were women
[which
was]
very
bad
news: for Dems. Dem pollster Celinda Lake "says that the [Dems]
could have kept control of Congress had its women been as
'excited' about their party as men were about the GOP" (8/14
issue).
NWPC: At the Nat'l Women's Political Caucus convention in
Nashville, Anita Perez Ferguson, twice a Dem nominee for Congress
from CA, became the new president, succeeding Harriett Woods.
*14 COVER TO COVER
BUSINESS WEEK -- Photo: Michael Eisner. "Disney's Kingdom:
Can Michael Eisner Dominate the New Entertainment Economy?"
(8/14).
ECONOMIST -- Graphic: Silouette of pied piper, followed by
four mice atop the "Hollywood" sign: "Walt Disney and the piper's
tune" (8/5-11).
NEWSWEEK -- Photo: JFK Jr. "Coming of Age: At 34, JFK,
Jr. is Finally Trying to Make His Mark" (8/14).
TIME -- Photo: Anglerfish. "Mysteries of the Deep:
Scientists are Set to Conquer the Last Frontier: the Ocean Floor"
(8/14).
U.S. NEWS -- Graphic: Mickey Mouse with an ABC emblem for
his nose. "Mighty Mouse: Turning America into Disney's World"
(8/14).
SENATE WATCH
*15 WELFARE: NRSC LAUNCHES RADIO ADS IN FIVE STATES
The NRSC, chaired by Sen. Al D'Amato (R-NY), will begin
airing 60-sec radio ads over the next week in the home states of
"liberal" Dem Sens. Tom Harkin (IA), Paul Wellstone (MN), Bill
Bradley (NJ), Carl Levin (MI), and Jay Rockfeller (WV), all up in
'96. D'Amato: "The purpose of these radio ads is to encourage
liberal Senators to join the Republican Party's effort to pass
genuine workfare provisions. We hope citizens will contact their
Senator's office in an effort to help change their Senator's past
opposition to workfare." Excerpt from the ad: "Welfare just
doesn't work. It even hurts the very people it's supposed to
help. After thirty years of failed liberal welfare policies,
it's time for a change. The Republicans in the Senate have a
plan to let states replace welfare with workfare. It's fair.
It's simple. It makes sense. Workfare, not welfare. If you can
work, you must work or no check. But Liberal Senator [home state
Sen.] has voted against workfare time after time. That's
incredible. Taxpayers deserve better" (release, 8/6).
*16 LOUISIANA: TAUZIN SWITCHES TO THE GOP; SENATE BID NEXT?
Rep. Billy Tauzin (03) "declared himself a Republican" on
8/6, the fifth member of Congress -- and the third in the House -
- to "abandon" the Democratic Party since the GOP took control of
Congress last November. Tauzin "said he gave the Democratic
Party a chance to become more centrist but it remained too
liberal for his own political philosophy." Tauzin: "My decision
today is philosophically driven, not politically driven. It's
about ideas. We cannot afford to keep doing business as usual if
we are going to get American back on track." The party-switch
was "no surprise. His conservative district and his own leanings
had fueled speculation about the move for months" (UPI/W. TIMES,
8/7). Tauzin had resigned 8/4 from The Coalition, the group of
conservative Dem House members, a clear sign that a party switch
was imminent. He is now expected to run for the Senate seat that
is being vacated next year by J. Bennett Johnston (D). Still,
Tauzin spokesperson Ken Johnson said, "This decision will have no
bearing on whether he decides to make the Senate race." Another
conservative Dem who quit The Coalition -- Rep. Mike Parker (MS
04) -- said he "plans no decisions regarding party affiliation
until the House returns next month" (Kahn, ROLL CALL, 8/7 issue).
Other Dem-to-GOP switches this year: Rep. Greg Laughlin (TX 14),
6/26; Rep. Nathan Deal (GA 09), 4/10; and Sen. Ben Nighthorse
Campbell (CO), 3/3. Also, Sen. Richard Shelby (AL) switched the
day after the '94 election.
CAUTION: Inst. for Policy Studies' Robert Borosage: "This
Congress has lost popularity at record pace since last November.
These guys are joining a ship that may well be sinking" ("FOX
Morning News," 8/7).
*17 MASSACHUSETTS: NEW WELD INTEREST IN SENATE RACE CITED
BOSTON HERALD header: "Gov eyes run against Kerry: Tells
strategists of Senate interest" (8/4). BOSTON GLOBE header:
"Weld steering an unlikely course on a possible challenge to
Kerry" (8/6). Both Boston papers report that Gov. William Weld
(R) met with NRSC exec. dir. John Heubusch and pol. dir. Joanne
Barnhardt recently, but HERALD's Sciacca notes Weld "informed
[them] that he is still interested in a possible run" against
Sen. John Kerry (D). Heubusch: "My impression is that he has not
ruled it out, which pleases us very much. He would be a
perfect candidate. The only thing it would take for him to win
is to run." Weld aides, who had "downplayed" speculation about a
Weld bid, "renewed" that speculation, as CA Gov. Pete Wilson's WH
bid "lags" and "pressure mounts" from state GOP leaders to
recruit a Kerry challenger (8/4). But GLOBE's "Political
Capital" says the speculation, "treated as big news in some
quarters earlier this week, seems pretty darned implausible to
those who pay more attention to facts than spin." A "source
close to Weld," on the meeting with NRSC, which is "nervous about
not yet fielding a challenger": "There was no news there. He's
always said he hasn't closed the door on it. No one could
have taken that meeting and figure it means he's leaning toward
running." "Political Capital" also reports during the meeting,
Weld "steered" the NRSC to his economic affairs sec. Gloria
Larson, "who has been touted as a possible candidate." But
Larson said she "isn't interested," citing Kerry's $2M warchest
and marriage to Heinz ketchup heir Teresa Heinz (8/6).
TOUGH RACE: The NRSC has "tagged" Kerry as one of their top
five Dem targets for '96 and "vowed" to deliver $700,000 to the
GOP challenger. But Kerry is financially "well-poised for a
tough race." MA GOP chair James Rappaport, Kerry's opponent in
'90, announced he would "monitor Kerry's spending to ensure" that
Heinz "does not use her personal fortune to infuse his campaign":
"If she contributes more than the $2,000 maximum allowed, we'll
be seeking charges against both of them." Weld has about
$400,000 in his state campaign account, but that money cannot be
transferred to a Senate race. Still, Weld consultant Ray Howell
"dismissed the cash gap," saying Weld could raise funds
"quickly": "He has never closed the door (on a Senate bid)"
(Sciacca, BOSTON HERALD, 8/4). Other possible GOP candidates:
Rappaport, '94 nominee Mitt Romney, ex-radio talk show host/'94
primary cand. Janet Jeghelian and Suffolk Co. DA Ralph Martin.
*18 NEW JERSEY: D'AMATO SAYS NRSC WILL TARGET BRADLEY
NRSC chair Al D'Amato (R-NY) called Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NJ)
"out of step with the electorate and politically vulnerable" 8/3
as he announced that he would make Bradley's defeat next fall "a
top priority" of Senate GOPers. He said the NRSC will contribute
the maximum $710,000 to Bradley's opponent. The announcement is
"unusual because it come long before the calendar turns to the
1996 election season." But D'Amato declared that Bradley's "weak
showing in 1990 and his lack of preparation for a tough and
challenging 1996 campaign make him more vulnerable than ever to
defeat." He accused Bradley of "swimming against the tide of
economic change that finally puts taxpayers first" and predicted
that Bradley's "long liberal record of supporting higher taxes on
New Jerseyans and bigger government in Washington" will be
"major" campaign issues. Bradley responded to the charges
through spokesperson Victoria Streitfeld: "D'Amato is just trying
to extend his political empire from New York to New Jersey. New
Jerseyans are fully capable of making their own decisions of who
they want their elected officials to be. They don't need to be
dictated to by Al D'Amato" (Cohen/Wald, Newark STAR-LEDGER, 8/4).
MORE: The NRSC statement was "careful" to say its
contribution would go to the eventual GOP nominee, but D'Amato
did cite Rep. Dick Zimmer (R-12) as an "example of an 'excellent'
candidate who could defeat Bradley." Zimmer, who has the backing
of NJ Gov. Christie Whitman, has a warchest of $1.1M for the
race, raising more than any other challenger in the country (see
HOTLINE, 8/3). Bradley has raised $1.7M since '94 for the race,
but currently has only about $600,000 on hand. GOPers maintain
that Bradley's lack of "substantial" fundraising is an
"indication" that he might not seek reelection. But since 12/94,
Bradley has "repeatedly insisted" that he does not need to raise
the $13M he did in '90 and "expressed confidence" that he can
raise $6-7M for the race. On "Imus in the Morning" 8/3, Bradley
"reiterated" that he is a candidate and that "people remain
skeptical only because 'I'm just doing things differently this
time." He has not yet assembled a campaign staff, although he
did announce he has hired a campaign consultant, and despite GOP
attempts to "engage [him] early in the campaign," he "has been
more inclined to ignore the political forays and devote his
attention" to Senate business (STAR-LEDGER, 8/4). Other
announced GOP candidate: Passaic Co. Freeholder Richard DuHaime.
If Bradley retires: Reps. Bob Torricelli (D-05) & Rob Andrews (D-
01).
*19 NEW MEXICO: NOVAK FORESEES A RICHARDSON-DOMENICI RACE
Bob Novak writes that Rep. Bill Richardson (D-03), "fresh
from his freelance diplomatic triumph in Iraq, is seriously
considering" challenging the "powerful" Senate Budget Cmte chair
Pete Domenici (R) next fall. Domenici is "considered one of the
least vulnerable" GOPers up in '96, but NM GOP leaders "fear that
Richardson is the one challenger who might be able to harness the
state's big Democratic voting majority against Domenici. The
question is whether Richardson would sacrifice his safe House
seat for the risky Senate race" (N.Y. POST, 8/5).
ON THE HOUSE
*20 IL 02: HEARD WILL TESTIFY IN REYNOLDS CASE TODAY
Jailed recanted accuser Beverly Heard will take the stand
today and testify in the sexual misconduct trial of Rep. Mel
Reynolds (D). Heard has been in jail since 7/26 for refusing to
testify in the case. On 8/3, following stern threats of jail
time by Judge Fred Suria Jr., prosecutors offered Heard immunity
for anything she says on the stand, even if she contradicts
testimony she made in front of a grand jury that she had sex with
Reynolds. CHICAGO TRIBUNE's Possley & Kendall report that
prosecutors think the answer to Heard's lengthy hold out "is that
late last year Heard, hoping to open a beauty salon and build a
new life with her then-roommate and lover, agreed to accept a
$100,000 bribe offered by Reynolds in return for her recanting
her claim that she and the congressman had sex when she was 16."
Today, in what will be "one of the most significant days of the
trial," prosecutors hope to "solve the mystery of Heard's
recalcitrance and disprove any possible denial that she had sex
with Reynolds." Regardless of what she says, Heard's decision to
testify "is a major breakthrough for the prosecution. It opens
the door to a wide range of additional documentary and
testimonial evidence." Whether Heard says she had sex with
Reynolds or stands by her recantation, "her words will set off a
flurry of legal maneuvering" with both the prosecution and the
defense armed with both her grand jury testimony and her sworn
recantation to either "buttress or impeach what she says." With
today's testimony, Heard will "begin what will no doubt amount to
two or more days on the stand, under attack from whichever side
her testimony falls against" (8/6). On 8/4, the testimony
featured ex-Heard roommate/lover Karren Lawson who said that
Heard "repeatedly said she wanted Reynolds to be arrested." Her
testimony was "immediately seized upon" by defense attys who
suggested that Heard's original sex charges were made "to exact
revenge on the congressman." The cross-examination of Lawson
lasted more than two hours resulting in the delay of Heard's
testimony until today (TRIBUNE, 8/5).
*21 OH 14: GOP HIGH ON GEORGE
Ex-U.S. Atty Joyce George's (R) challenge to Rep. Tom Sawyer
(D-14) -- who won a fifth term in '94 with 52% of the vote -- is
"looking more likely by the day." George met recently with
Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Ralph Regula (R-16) and OH GOP chair
Bob Bennett, and while no announcements were made, sources from
both parties said George "will almost certainly" run. Bennett,
comparing George to '94 GOP nominee Lynn Slaby: "Joyce George
will run and she will win. The difference is, Joyce George knows
how to raise money." Unseating Sawyer, who has not lost an
election since '76 when he ran for the OH House and is an
"extremely well-organized campaigner, won't be easy." But "with
money and hard campaigning, she could give Sawyer fits next year"
(Hoffman, AKRON BEACON JOURNAL, 8/4).
POLL UPDATE
*22 U.S. NEWS: THE GENDER GAP IS ALIVE AND WELL
1,000 registered voters (plus an oversample of 45 African-
Americans voters) surveyed 7/25-27 by Ed Goeas (R) and Celinda
Lake (D); margin of error +/- 2.9% (release, 8/4).
BILL CLINTON HILLARY CLINTON NEWT GINGRICH
JOB RATINGS ALL MEN WOM ALL MEN WOM ALL MEN WOM
Approve
47%
39%
54%
56%
46%
65%
42%
51%
35%
Disapprove
46
54
37
34
41
27
43
38
47
TODAY IN THE U.S.
ALL MEN WOM
Very/Pretty good times
49% 52% 46%
Not such/Not at all good times
48
45
49
WOMEN TODAY
ALL MEN WOM
Do not necessarily have more choices now,
50% 46% 54%
b/c these days more women have to work,
whether they want to or not
Are better off than before b/c they have
43 46 41
more job options and have a real choice of
whether they want to work outside the home
SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT GOVERNMENT
ALL MEN WOM
Is the problem, not the solution to our problems 47% 53% 43%
Can help people, and needs to work for
43 37 48
average working families
REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS
ALL MEN WOM
Have gone too far in cutting social programs,
49% 42% 56%
and may end up hurting more people than help
Have not gone far enough in reforming gov't
35 44 27
programs to save the taxpayers' money
I USUALLY VOTE THE SAME AS MY SPOUSE/PARTNER ALL MEN WOM
Agree
27% 34% 20%
Disagree
64 55 72
TV MONITOR
*23 THIS MORNING: NBC's "Today" hosted Speaker Newt Gingrich.
"CBS This Morning" hosted NARAL pres. Kate Michelman and Sen. Don
Nickles (R-OK). "FOX Morning News" hosted Reps. Connie Morella
(R-MD) & Al Wynn (D-MD), Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), new AFL-
CIO Sec-Treas. Barbara Easterling, TIME's Jeffrey Birnbaum, Inst.
for Policy Studies' Robert Borosage and GOPAC's Peter Roff.
TONIGHT: CNBC's "Russert" hosts AP's John King. "CBS
Evening News" interviews Webb Hubbell.
PLAY OF THE WEEK: CNN's Schneider, on the testimony of ex-
Dep. AG Philip Heymann at the Whitewater hearings: "A bombshell
went off that did enormous damage to the White House and
bolstered the credibility of its critics. Heymann's testimony
blew the White House story wide open. It gave the Republicans
cover" ("Inside Politics," 8/4).
OUTRAGES: Al Hunt, on MS Gov. Kirk Fordice's (R) refusal to
apologize for the murder of 3 civil rights workers 30 years ago:
"He even claimed [MS] has the best race relations in America --
no way with a race-baiting buffoon as governor." Margaret
Carlson, on Gingrich's letter to the NRA: "Republicans received
millions from the NRA last year. The NRA is getting its money's
worth, but the public is being robbed" ("Gang," CNN, 8/5).
LAUGHS: David Letterman, on new developments in the
Whitewater hearings: "Apparently, eight years ago in Little Rock,
Hillary Clinton knocked off a 7-Eleven" ("Late Show," CBS, 8/4).
Mark Russell, on the punishments being debated for Packwood:
"They've discussed everything from expulsion to a weekend with
Barbara Boxer" ("Inside Politics Weekend," CNN, 8/5).
TOP TEN WAYS THE U.S. WOULD BE DIFFERENT
IF IT WERE OWNED BY DISNEY
10. Defense Department spends billions on "Flubber missile."
9. Convicted killers must listen to "It's A Small World" for
the rest of their lives.
8. Presidents on Mt. Rushmore rigged up to sing like a
barbershop quartet.
7. Winning athletes exclaim, "I'm going to any random spot in
the country!"
6. We'd get to see Janet Reno in one of those tight Mouseketeer
sweaters.
5. Al Gore replaced by more lifelike audioanimatron.
4. Platoon of country bears sent to Bosnia as "Operation
Jamboree."
3. We'd bomb Busch Gardens back to the Stone Age.
2. Just like cows in India, sacred mice would wander the
streets.
1. Instead of Whitewater, Goofygate ("Late Show," CBS, 8/4).
TV SOUNDBITE
"If he's serious about political reform,
he ought fire Ron Brown tomorrow morning."
-- Speaker Newt Gingrich on Pres. Clinton
and campaign reform, "Late Edition," CNN, 8/6
-30-
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ATTACHMENT
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--- Wednesday August 30, 1995 Vol. 8 No. 235
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS ---
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
3129 Mount Vernon Ave., Alexandria, VA 22305 703-518-4600
THE HOT BOX
SPOTLIGHT
CRIME TIME: Wilson hits
IS KEAN ABLE?
Beantown where he takes a
bite out of crime with pal
The reports that ex-Gov.
Gov. Weld. But in Philly,
I
I
Tom Kean (R) may enter the
his crime stop doesn't fill
I
NJ Senate race has shaken
hall with sea of blue. (#1)
up the GOP, which was all-
SON OF A PIZZA MAN: Gramm
I
I
but-ready to anoint Rep.
kneads Dole's dough over
I
Dick Zimmer (R-12) as its
welfare reform in NH. Was
I
I
nominee. Now it's the Dems
Bob's oven temperature on
I
who seem ready to unite
the rise? (#2)
behind Rep. Bob Torricelli.
VEEPSTAKES: Fred Thompson
DEMS: Torricelli (D-09),
I
is In the Line of Fire. (#9)|
I
who's been itching for
higher office, is all but
endorsed by Min. Leader
BACK FROM SUMMER CAMP (#15)
I
Daschle. Other Dems are
If Rep. Camp (R) jumps in the
I
mentioned, but as for ex-
MI Sen. race, expect a complex
I
Gov. Jim Florio, NJ's Dem
3-way GOP grapple, with aborto
I
chair wants a "new face."
politics fueling the fire.
GOP: Kean says he'll
decide quickly. Six GOP
HOUSE HIGH ROLLERS (#17)
sens., led by Dole & Lott,
Here are the top 50 members,
host Zimmer fundraiser.
ranked by campaign receipts for
DREAM ON: Some Dems pant
the first half of the year.
for JFK Jr., but few think
he will leave NYC, by
BALKANIZING IL 05 (#18)
George. And Joe Piscopo,
Divide & conquer Dem primary
hoping to add to the number
pits Blagojevich against Kaszak
of Senate comedians, hints
as they try to win back Rosty's
of a run as a Dem. (#16)
seat from froshie Flanagan (R).
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"First thing you ought to do is get rid of the
Department of Education. It don't belong."
-- Morry Taylor, CRAIN'S CHICAGO BUSINESS, 8/28.
(c) 1995 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition
extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or
affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
Phone: 703/518-4600 FAX: 703/518-8701
HOTLINE mailbag by E-mail: [email protected]
APN Founders: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Managing Editor: Ken Rudin
Deputy Managing Editor: Jessica Barrows
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: James Kaleigh, Benjamin White,
Ronald Eckstein, Sally Buffalo
Editorial Assistants: Mike McGill, Andrea Short
TABLE OF CONTENTS
WHITE HOUSE '96: Wilson (#1); Gramm (#2); Dole (#3);
Alexander (#4); Lugar (#5); Specter (#6); New
Hampshire (#7); lowa (#8) Veepstakes (#9); Clinton (#10);
Powell (#11); Perot (#12); Taylor (#13)
CAMPAIGNS OF '95
LOUISIANA GOV: Roemer adds to lead: women tied for second. (#14)
SENATE WATCH
MICHIGAN: End-of-summer Camp? (#15)
NEW JERSEY: Torricelli hears nice things from Daschle. (#16)
ON THE HOUSE
CAMPAIGN FINANCE: Top 50 House members in receipts. (#17)
IL 05: The balkanizing of Chicago. (#18)
TV MONITOR (#19)
CAN YOU HANDLE THE TRUTH? The HOTLINE has immediate openings for
a staff writer and an editorial asst. Interested? FAX resumes
to Ken Rudin at (703) 518-8701. No phone calls, please.
???? OVERLOOKED ????
AND HOW DID BUSH DO?
Pres. Clinton's approval rating for his 10th quarter in office
(April, May and June of this year) was 48%. Here are the 10th
quarter ratings of recent presidents: Bush - 73%; Nixon - 49%;
Reagan - 44%; Carter -- 31% (Courtesy Gallup).
WHITE HOUSE '96
*1 WILSON: WANTS TAX CHECKOFF FOR COPS; MORE ANNOUNCE REAX
Pete Wilson, in day two of his announcement tour, went to
Boston's Faneuil Hall and proposed a federal income tax checkoff
"for people to steer money toward their local police
departments." Wilson's plan would allow people to earmark 1% of
their federal income taxes for state and local law enforcement
programs which "he said could generate more than $6 billion
annually for local police." Wilson, the first gov. to sign
"Three Strikes You're Out" legislation, said his Checkoff for
Public Safety would result in a direct grant to states. He
estimated that it could generate $175 million for MA to hire
2,378 officers and $30M for NH to hire 394. MA Gov. Bill Weld, a
key Wilson supporter, called the proposal "great." Wilson also
criticized Pres. Clinton's "100,000 cops" crime bill, "noting
that it forces local governments to put up most of the money and
will phase out all federal aid by decade's end." But in
"apparent deference" to Weld, Wilson "touched only briefly on his
opposition to affirmative action and support for tougher curbs on
illegal immigration." Weld supports retaining affirm. action
programs. Wilson also "saluted" Middlesex Sheriff Brad Bailey,
who "recently vowed to risk imprisonment rather than obey a
judge's order to release prisoners from overcrowded facilities."
Wilson, on Bailey: "He told the judge he'd rather go to jail
himself than put these thugs back on the street - that's my kind
of sheriff!" (Howe, BOSTON GLOBE, 8/30).
EMPTY IN PHILLY: In a speech before a "nearly empty"
gathering of the Fraternal Order of Police in Philadelphia,
Wilson delivered a "law and order" speech where he said, "I'm
sick and tired of a corrupt culture more interested in honoring
the perpetrators of crime than the victims of it." As was the
case 8/28 when he announced at the Statue of Liberty, when "no
New York elected officials were on hand to greet him even as a
matter of courtesy, let alone to endorse him," there were no PA
GOP officials "on hand to greet him here either" (Hallow, W.
TIMES, 8/30).
so FAR, so GOOD: S.J. MERCURY NEWS' Thurm thinks Wilson
"succeeded" in his effort to "grab the media's attention": "By
and large, Monday was a shining moment for the usually non-
telegenic Wilson: The sun beamed on his face at just the right
angle, giving him a near-glow and illuminating the torch on the
Statue of Liberty behind him in New York Harbor" (8/29). A N.Y.
POST editorial calls criticism of Wilson's choice of the Statue
of Liberty as a backdrop "out of line": "His point was simple --
there is a difference between legal and illegal immigration to
this country. However much it may pain the open-borders
crowd, this nation does have immigration laws, ill-enforced
though they may be. And some states --including both New York
and Pete Wilson's California -- are suffering a crushing burden
from having to subsidize the growing number of people who sneak
into this country" (8/30). N.Y. DAILY NEWS' Nelson writes Wilson
"suffers the misfortune of being a moderate fighting for
recognition in a crowded Republican primary. He tries to
convince the conservatives he's conservative and the moderates
that he's moderate, and inevitably he winds up talking out of
both sides of his mouth. He can do better" (8/30).
DON'T SINGLE OUT PETE ON CONSISTENCY: W.S. JOURNAL's Seib
considers the shifting positions of the '96 contenders, be they
"flip-flops," "policy reversals" or "evolutions in thinking."
Wilson, for example, has changed his position on affirm. action,
immigration and whether he would run for pres. as gov. His
campaign says his views reflect the same shift in America.
Wilson manager George Gorton: "Most Americans were in favor of
affirmative action in the 1960s. Most now think it's a problem."
Seib writes that Wilson "is hardly alone. In fact, those looking
for pristine consistency will look in vain in 1996." Check out
these reversals: Bob Dole (assault weapons, no-tax pledge), Lamar
Alexander (education), Phil Gramm (pork), Pat Buchanan (free
trade), Bill Clinton (middle-class tax cut). Dem pollster Peter
Hart said the "problem" for Wilson "isn't that he has changed,
but rather that the timing of his changes make them appear to
have been made only for 'political expediency." Clinton's
problem "may be slightly different. He probably suffers not so
much from changing his mind as from a perception that he can't
make up his mind in the first place" (8/30).
SKED: Wilson will be in Jacksonville, FL today; on 8/31 his
"Liberty Tour" takes him to Des Moines and Walcott, IA.
*2 GRAMM: VISITS PIZZA KITCHEN, GETS DOLE HOT UNDER COLLAR
Phil Gramm, "stepping up his New Hampshire campaign," took
his welfare reform fight with Bob Dole "from Capitol Hill to a
Bedford pizzeria." In a visit to Luisa's Pizza, Gramm "said that
Dole's welfare reform bill started out too weak, has become a bit
tougher only since Dole accepted two Gramm-authored provisions,
but won't be tough enough until Dole accepts two more Gramm
proposals." Gramm: "I want to stop giving people more and more
money to have more and more children on welfare. [Also], we
ought to eliminate the federal bureaucracy that goes with [AFDC].
The best that Sen. Dole has given me so far is that we will
eliminate 30% of the federal jobs in an agency that is no longer
working." Gramm, asked if he would filibuster a Dole bill he
considers too weak: "I want to work out an agreement.
I
intend to vote for welfare reform. But we've reformed welfare
many times, but we have not changed it" (DiStaso, Manchester
UNION LEADER, 8/30). Dole press sec. Nelson Warfield: "Dole's
welfare reform bill will advocate work, and return decision-
making to the states and to the governors, like New Hampshire
Governor Steve Merrill. Our adversary in the battle to reform
welfare is Bill Clinton, not each other. Phil Gramm needs to
quit worrying about the best interests of his campaign and start
worrying about the best interests of America" (BOSTON GLOBE,
8/30). Later in the day, stopping off at the Nashua West Rotary
Club, Gramm continued his criticisms of Dole, saying "the
difference between himself and Dole is 'our leadership in trying
to promote change." Gramm: "Dole was ready to compromise on
health care and I said, 'No.' I tried to add the Contract with
America tax cuts and spending cuts to the Senate budget, but Sen.
Dole refused to endorse it and didn't speak out for it. You
can't compromise on everything. We're not
going
to
change
America by cutting deals" with Dems (UNION LEADER, 8/30).
BLOOD PRESSURE RISING? Excerpts from both Gramm and Dole
were featured on WMUR-TV Manchester. WMUR's Carl Cameron: "After
donning an apron for a tour of a Bedford Pizzeria, Phil Gramm
fired a conservative shot squarely across Bob Dole's bow.
From his lakeside retreat, a hint of Dole's temper in response."
Dole: "Well, Phil Gramm's one of the best nitpickers in the
business. It's never quite enough when I do something. He's
always there to say something negative, he has that freedom, he's
not the leader. I've got to bring people together. While
he's dividing them, I've got to bring them back together. We
don't need Phil Gramm's unrealistic polarization, we need unity
here." Cameron: "Dole's preferred strategy would be to stay
above the fray as both Senate Majority Leader and presidential
frontrunner. After all, given his history and reputation for
temper, he's well aware that keeping his lead could be closely
linked to keeping his cool" (8/29).
FROM THE W.S. JOURNAL: Gramm co-writes a W.S. JOURNAL op-
ed, entitled "Why Pro-Lifers Should Support Welfare Reform," with
Family Research Council's Gary Bauer. Excerpt: "Some have argued
that lawmakers should disarm the illegitimacy provisions passed
by the House in order to 'avert the tragedy of abortions in
America.' We share the commitment to life, and we believe that a
vote to reduce illegitimacy will protect the lives of the unborn
far more effectively than a vote to retain cash benefits for
unwed mothers. Social liberals with a vested interest in
dividing conservatives have manufactured a pernicious myth that
reforming welfare and eliminating abortion are mutually exclusive
goals. Pro-lifers should challenge this, because there are no
data to support the contention that the current welfare system
suppresses the abortion rate. In fact the relationship
between higher welfare benefits and higher abortion rates holds
up in a state-by-state analysis as well. States with the most
generous welfare benefits also tend to have the highest abortion
rates" (8/30).
PIZZA FOR YOUR THOUGHTS: UNION LEADER's DiStaso writes, "In
one of the more entertaining 'photo ops' thus far" in the
campaign, Gramm "donned an apron and was taught by Luisa Matta
and her staff how to cook a pizza.
A little while later, in
an unexpected move," Gramm manager Jim Courtovich handed cooked
pizza to DiStaso. "Gramm said, 'Go ahead. You can take that
back to the Union Leader.' Courtovich insisted. Gramm, of
course, would love to have the editorial endorsement of the
state's largest newspapers, so the reporter knew the pizza was
obviously meant for authorities higher than himself. So he
diligently delivered it to Publisher Nackey S. Loeb yesterday
afternoon. Her reaction? Appreciative of the thought, but
unfazed" (8/30).
*3 DOLE: STUCK INSIDE THE CABIN WITH THE RIGHT-WING BLUES AGAIN
S.F. CHRONICLE's Saunders writes Bob Dole's decision to
return $1,000 to the Log Cabin Republicans marks the "low point"
of a campaign that "promises to be very low." Other campaigns
are "gleeful" about Dole's "nasty move." According to LCR chief
Rich Tafel, Dole should be aware that "trashing gays is not a
freebie": "I don't think we can go through another campaign cycle
with all these candidates having closeted gay staff." Tafel said
the LCRs would not "out" anyone themselves, but that other gay
advocacy groups "just might." Header: "The Dole Way: If You're
Down, Kick a Gay" (8/30). A BOSTON GLOBE editorial comments Dole
"probably thought he was standing tall for the far right wing of
his party" by giving the money back. Actually, the move "made
him look pathetically small. Deserting supporters because of
political expediency never sits well. Dole has not returned
campaign contributions to Time Warner even though he deplores the
'nightmares of depravity' in the entertainment industry.
He
could have respectfully agreed to disagree with Log Cabin
Republicans on the issue of gays in the military. The Log Cabin
Republicans have always been clear about who they are. It's Bob
Dole who is disingenuous" (8/29). W. POST editorial: "The real
danger for Mr. Dole is not that he will be perceived as a left-
winger but that he will turn into some sort of ideological
pretzel, twisting this way and that, depending on whether he is
thinking about the primaries (twist right) or the general
election (twist toward the center). That will help him neither
in the primaries nor in the election" (8/30). ATLANTA
CONSTITUTION editorial: "Will the real Dole please stand up?"
Dole, "once a pillar of middle-of-the-road conservatism and
common sense, has demonstrated that he won't let decency and
principle get in the way of wooing the Republican Party's
staunchest ideologues. [He] is engaging in situational
ethics. [T]his presidential candidate may look like Bob Dole,
the well-respected senator. He may also talk like Dole and walk
like Dole. But whether he thinks or believes like the real Bob
Dole has become a matter under serious question" (8/29).
AND ANOTHER THING: A CONCORD MONITOR editorial, under
header, "Dole's weakness," reviews a recent speech in Concord:
"Dole's no different now than in 1980 or 1988, when his other
presidential runs failed. He was, still is and may always be
unable to tell voters in simple, clear terms who he is and what
he would do for them as president. After two decades of
running for president, Dole doesn't have a standard speech down;
he still cannot viscerally connect with voters. Perhaps it's a
tribute to stubbornness a refusal to let handlers tell him
what to say and how to package it. But it's striking that a
politician with a command of legislative details falters so at
expressing whole concepts and ideas" (8/30).
TEAM UPDATE: Dole picked up the endorsement of NH exec.
councilor Ruth Griffin 8/29 (Miller, Manchester UNION LEADER,
8/30). She will join the campaign as an NH vice-chair. Dole is
in Dixville Notch, NH today (Dole release 8/29).
*4 ALEXANDER: SPINNING FOR DOLLARS
Nashville TENNESSEAN's Daughtrey comments on "long shot"
Lamar Alexander's releasing two internal polls last week
"designed to show him as a somewhat shorter shot for the
nomination." Internal polls have to be "taken with a grain of
salt," but they can "say a lot about the backroom strategy being
developed in the campaign headquarters." Meaningless as the IA
straw poll "might be," without the Nashville and Atlanta
delegates Alexander flew in to vote for him, he "would have
finished behind Alan Keyes," who did not bring in any supporters.
The IA poll showed Alexander tied with Pat Buchanan for fourth
and up 4% for June. The NH poll showed Alexander in third, a
point ahead of Gramm -- "the first poll outside [TN] to show
Alexander ahead of Gramm." In the larger picture, "the dynamics
of the Republican race have not changed in six months. Despite
some blips here and there, no one has yet threatened Dole's front
runner status. With a field of 10 candidates, no one has emerged
as a clear alternative. No doubt" Alexander has moved up in
IA and NH due to his campaigning there and airing of TV spots.
But he needed to release the polls to "show contributors some
momentum" as he prepares to "hit the fund raising trail again" --
something he needs to do in order to afford to "make another
push" in IA and NH in 2/96, "when the numbers really count"
(8/27).
*5 LUGAR: GOES HOME TO GIVE THE SPEECH THEY SAY HE CAN'T GIVE
Dick Lugar came home to Indianapolis 8/28 and "delivered the
kind of speech that his critics say he can't -- sometimes funny,
often fervent, and with a point aimed right at the hearts of
voters who tell pollsters repeatedly that they are sick of
attack-dog politics." Lugar "rejected the exploitation of 'wedge
issues" used by candidates like Phil Gramm, Pat Buchanan and
Pete Wilson. Speaking at a luncheon honoring an organization he
helped form to boost the political careers and involvement of
women, Lugar spoke with "passion" in favor of affirmative action
-- "the type of affirmative action where someone works to open
opportunities because that is right and not because it is the
law." Lugar said it was "right" to "jump start" the opening of
political opportunities for women. Noting that some GOP hopefuls
would dismantle affirmative action, Lugar said the campaign is
"extremely misguided, mean-spirited and nasty" (Schneider,
INDIANAPOLIS STAR, 8/29).
*6 SPECTER: ONLY HALF OF PA CONTRIBUTIONS GO TO NATIVE SON
According to FEC reports, "one out of every two dollars"
given to pres. candidates from PA donors "went to someone other
than Arlen Specter." Specter has raised at least $743,000 from
PA, while the other candidates have raised at least $762,000 in
the state. Pollster Terry Madonna said Specter's home state
support is "strong," but "it is by no means solid": "Specter
certainly is not the candidate for a substantial number of
Pennsylvanians. Conservatives in the Republican party certainly
don't find anything rewarding in a Specter candidacy." Specter
officials "downplayed" the contribution figures, saying he "has
not exhausted his fund-raising potential" in PA. Specter dep.
campaign mgr Craig Snyder said the campaign is "happy with the
support we're receiving" from PA: "He has received a significant
amount of support from Pennsylvania at this point, and there
certainly will be more." Specter has raised about 45% of his
money out-of-state, a "figure comparable" to the out-of-state
contributions to the Pete Wilson and Lamar Alexander campaigns.
Pres. Clinton, Bob Dole and Phil Gramm have raised greater
percentages from out-of-state donors, while Richard Lugar has
raised a higher percentage from his home state (Jesdanun,
AP/PHILA. DAILY NEWS, 8/29).
*7 NEW HAMPSHIRE: SOME LATE-SUMMER CNN CHATTER
CNN's "Inside Politics" offered up a roundtable on NH. Here
are some excerpts:
GRAMM: CNN's Randall, on part of Phil Gramm's problem in
NH: "There is Gramm's personality. Prominent Republicans sources
here say he is arrogant, that he steps on too many political
toes." Gramm: "I'm not going to try to go around changing who I
am." Randall: "It could cost him the endorsement" of Gov. Steve
Merrill. BOSTON GLOBE's David Nyhan: "I can't imagine Phil Gramm
picking up a lot of votes. The more he talks, I think the more
altitude he loses. He'll bomb." WMUR News Director Jack
Heath: "I would not overlook Gramm's message in [NH]. I would
agree that he is a very direct, somewhat politically abrasive
type, but his message fits a lot of people out here. The
question will be, can he sell his message personally."
DOLE: NH GOP Chair John Stabile, on Dole's NH performance
so far: "I don't think anybody can approach his organization."
WMUR's Heath: "To his credit, he's doing everything right but
he's fighting somewhat of a superhuman effort in the expectations
game." GLOBE's Nyhan: "I look at Dole and I see Muskie and
Mondale all over again."
BUCHANAN: Nyhan: "Having the Union Leader's [support] is as
good as having money, which Buchanan does not have. Once
Buchanan gets past the Union Leader's support, there's nothing
there for him. I think Buchanan is way overrated." Nyhan,
noting Buchanan's 37% showing against Bush: "I think he'll be
lucky to do double digits this time."
ALEXANDER: Nyhan: "I regard [him] as the dark horse
Lamar's already raised seven-and-a-half million, which has
surprised a lot of people, including me. I would expect that
the nominee would be either Wilson or Alexander, because I think
a non-Washington man is the best bet for the GOP. Alexander
would be my longshot pick to win [NH]" (8/29).
*8 IOWA: CANDIDATES RACKING UP THOSE FREQUENT FLYER MILES
The Iowa Caucus Project reports GOP pres. candidates have
collectively spent over 257 days in IA since the inauguration of
Pres. Clinton, which is more than ever before. Leading up to the
'88 caucuses, GOPers spent 209 days in the state. Also in '88,
more than 3000 reporters "from around the world" came to cover
IA's caucuses (release, 8/29).
*9 VEEPSTAKES: THOMPSON COULD BE VOLUNTEERED; VOINOVICH'S TAX
Sen. Fred Thompson's (R-TN) name has made it onto the GOP's
"long list" of potential VP candidates. GANNETT's Bender points
out that Thompson is "smart, well-spoken, appeals to the flannel
shirt crowd as well as the stuffed shirts on Wall Street and,
Hey! He's even a movie star." GOP strategist Mitch Daniels, on
Thompson: "He's a tremendously appealing figure. He has star
quality, and -- this is very important -- he has the ability to
articulate Republican values from the perspective of the average
person." Gramm pollster Linda Divall agrees: "He could put
Tennessee into play. It would be interesting to have two vice
presidential candidates from the same state. It would show the
Democrats they do not have a lock on Tennessee." Divall added
that Thompson's "outsider image" could win over Ross Perot
supporters, as he won 70% of the Perot vote in his Senate race.
However, TN GOPers "probably would grouse" if Thompson got the VP
spot, because it would "leave a void in the Senate the Democrats
could fill" (Nashville TENNESSEAN, 8/28).
VOINOVICH TAX RECORD LEAVES SCANT CHANCES: U.S. NEWS'
Michael Barone, who predicted the GOP nominee will be determined
on 3/19, the day of the OH, IL, MI and WI primaries, told OH
reporters that any chance OH Gov. George Voinovich has for a VP
spot "could be irrevocably damaged" because he raised taxes as
gov. Barone noted that "a lot of people in the Republican Party
are basically saying, 'We'd veto this guy because he's raised
taxes. We just don't want that. Remember President Bush?"
Barone also said Clinton will be "hard put" to repeat his victory
in the state (Brazaitis, Cleveland PLAIN DEALER, 8/27). A recent
Tarrance Group (R) poll shows Bob Dole's lead over Bill Clinton
growing slightly, to above 50%, in OH when the matchup reads
Dole-Voinovich vs. Clinton-Gore (HOTLINE sources).
*10 CLINTON: EDITORIALS REACT TO FUND-RAISING
The BOSTON GLOBE reported that Pres. Clinton's campaign team
is considering rejecting federal funding during the primaries --
and the spending limits that go along with it (see HOTLINE 8/29).
Reform advocates like Common Cause reacted negatively to the
possibility. Others did, too. GLOBE editorial: "If Clinton's
aides convince him to opt out of the federal financing scheme for
next year's primaries, the president risks committing yet another
act of political self-destruction. In the year of Newt, the
president has managed to land his most effective counterpunches
on the House speaker on the vital matter of political reform and
its most essential component, campaign finance. Now he risks
undoing the progress he has made -- not just giving away partisan
political advantage but also, more important, eliminating the
emerging sense of momentum for real campaign finance overhaul.
Clinton should keep his eye on that ball and stick with
public financing" (8/29). FORT WORTH STAR-TELEGRAM editorial:
"Apparently the Clinton political team sees a need for big TV
advertising late this year and early next year to prepare the
Clinton image for the fall campaign. From a practical viewpoint,
they see advantage in using only privately raised funds.
Practical, perhaps; honest no. If the president ever wonders why
he has a negative image or is accused of talking out of both
sides of his mouth, he should weigh his frequent statements in
favor of campaign finance reform against his performance as a
fund-raiser. Nevermind that the Republicans
might look hypocritical themselves if they criticized such a
Clinton decision. It would still be wrong. One hundred percent,
dead-certain wrong" (8/29).
POWELL: GENERAL NOT GETTING SUPPORT FROM OLD HAUNT
W. S. JOURNAL's Ricks reports the Pentagon, Colin Powell's
"old haunt," is "immune" to the "Powellmania" sweeping the
nation. Senior DoD officials are "growing uneasy" with Powell's
"key legacy," the so-called "Powell Doctrine." The doctrine
advocates the use of U.S. military force only "with decisive
force and with the clear support of the American people." The
critics are asking "whether the Powell approach effectively ties
the hands of the president by entertaining only all-or-nothing
options for using military force." The doctrine is only being
"questioned, not replaced or even challenged directly in public,"
and it still "holds sway" over much of the armed services,
"especially" the Joint Staff. In addition, Powell's views about
two other "crucial questions" -- keeping the military out of
Bosnia and reducing its size now that the Cold War is over --
"still prevail in Pentagon circles." Many critics "aren't
tackling Gen. Powell directly, but instead are taking aim at a
proxy target, the Joint Staff, which reports only to the chairman
of the Joint Chiefs," Powell's former position. It was under
Powell's leadership that the Joint Staff "moved to the center of
power in the U.S. military establishment"; many service members
are now "challenging" that authority (8/30).
*12 PEROT: FASCINATION WITH HEROES DOESN'T HELP POLITICS
DALLAS MORNING NEWS' McKenzie writes about "a problem with
Ross Perot": He "seems to live in a world of individual heroes,
where men and women of legendary abilities ride into town,
perform acts of bravery and head back out." Perot makes frequent
references to individual heroes and their acts of bravery. The
problem with this "fascination" is that "his focus on individual
heroes and incredible acts of personal bravery is only
tangentially relevant to politics or government. If
politics
were so simple, we wouldn't be worrying about troubles like
Bosnia, air pollution or interest on the debt. The daily life
of politics and government -- where issues with many parts are
debated -- is not really about personal acts of bravery. Like it
or not, politics is ultimately about collective action, complete
with details and drudgery. Committees, procedures, hearings,
persuasion -- those are the tools politicians use to achieve
progress. They are not the same tools needed to dash into
falling buildings and save lives -- or to send private forces
into Iran to rescue company employees, as Mr. Perot once did.
Now, Americans may be growing tired of politics precisely because
individual acts of bravery are not so germane to political life.
Yet unfortunately, problems like fixing Medicare are not solved
byu individuals on lone pursuits. They are resolved by the
tiresome work of leaders trying to move large numbers of people
toward a common goal. Does Ross Perot really understand that
fact?
Successful political leaders are marked by having the
staying power to develop a consensus out of many conflicting
positions. Bob Dole, for example, may never inspire the masses
for being so involved in the political process. But as he told
the Dallas convention, his bottom line as Senate majority leader
is knowing where the votes are. That fact may sound raw, but
well-regarded legislators understood that bottom line was
necessary for progress" (8/30).
*13 TAYLOR: TAKES HIS ME$$AGE EAST
CRAIN'S CHICAGO BUSINESS' Merrion profiles Morry Taylor,
noting his campaign has gone from "obscurity to a curiosity among
political cognoscenti" since the IA straw poll. His plan to cut
the federal deficit is simple: "You do it just like you do in
business. The federal payroll this year, with fringes, is
$200 billion. So, you take a third of that out. Saves you $60
billion. Then, you consolidate it, no different than you do in
any other business, and you save an extra $120 billion in
administrative cost savings. Bingo, that's $180 billion: You've
balanced the budget. You haven't even started to cut all the
foolish programs that you can go after there." But asked about
what programs he would cut, "he talks about firing the
bureaucrats who put [in] $600 toilet seats or $900 claw hammers."
Taylor: "When you go to cut programs, you've got to turn around
and you've got to get congressional authority. But first thing
you ought to do is get rid of the Department of Education. It
don't belong." Taylor also believes the federal government
should not provide welfare: "It should go back to the states.
But the states should also pass it right back to the counties,
give them the money. Block-grant it right back and get the
federal government right out of it." "In the past, Mr. Taylor
has associated himself with views that are even further from the
mainstream." Taylor took out a full-page ad in USA Today last
year in which he and his employees "offered a number of ideas on
what America needs." Those ideas included floggings instead of
prison for certain crimes, and sterilization of people on
welfare. "He now says the idea is that tubal ligations and
vasectomies should be free for welfare recipients, so they can
avoid having more children. Floggings were an employee's ideas,
not his, but 'I paid for (the ad), and I take responsibility for
it. We've got to figure out how to do something; we can't
just keep throwing them all in jail" (8/28). Taylor's 89-stop
tour of New England took him to Maine 8/24. A "Perot admirer,"
Taylor said that although he voted for Perot in '92, he thinks
his campaign was "politically unrealistic" and encouraged Perot
supporters "to get behind his campaign within the two-party
system": "If you want change, then join the Republican Party and
change it. If all the United We Stand jumped into the Republican
Party, they'd take it over." Admitting his lack of name
recognition, Taylor said his strategy for winning would be
"similar to his approach in business": "Out-whip the suckers"
(GANNETT/PORTLAND PRESS HERALD, 8/25).
CAMPAIGNS OF '95
*14 LOUISIANA GOV: ROEMER ADDS TO HIS LEAD; WOMEN TIED FOR 2ND
Shreveport TIMES Poll, conducted 8/25-28 by Mason Dixon/PMR,
surveyed 828 registered LA voters; margin of error +/-3.5%
(8/30). Tested: ex-Gov. Buddy Roemer (R), Treas. Mary Landrieu
(D), LG Melinda Schwegmann (D), state Sen. Mike Foster (D), state
Rep. Robert Adley (D), atty Phil Preis (D), Reps. Cleo Fields (D-
04) & William Jefferson (D-02), '91 cand. David Duke (R), state
Rep. Quentin Dastugue (R), state Sen. Don Kelly (D), Delgado
Comm. College prof. Anne Thompson (R), Rev. Carey Kimbrell (R)
and Orleans Levee Board Pres. Robert Harvey (D). Filing
deadline: 9/7. Election: 10/21. Runoff: 11/18. In the 7/95
poll, Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee (D) and ex-Gov. David
Treen (R) were polled; both have since dropped out of the race.
ALL 7/95 MEN WOMEN WHITE BLACK FAV/UNFAV
Roemer 33% 24% 35% 31% 37% 21% 47%/21%
Landrieu
13
13
12
14
15
7
43 / 16
Schwegmann
12
12
11
13
13
8
35 / 23
Fields
8
11
9
7
1
27
29/25
Foster
6
3
8
4
8
--
26 / 14
Jefferson
5
2
5
5
1
16
19 / 16
Duke
5
5
7
3
7
--
14 / 69
Dastugue
3
2
3
3
4
--
16 / 10
Adley
2
1
2
2
2
--
9/6
Preis
1
1
1
1
1
--
8/6
Kelly
1
--
1
1
1
--
9 / 7
Thompson
--
--
--
--
--
--
10 / 11
Kimbrell
--
--
--
--
--
:
5/ 4
Harvey
--
--
--
--
--
:
7 / 10
Undecided
11
12
6
16
10
21
RUNOFFS
NOW 7/95
NOW 7/95
Roemer
49%
46%
Roemer
45%
43%
Schwegmann 36 40
Landrieu
40
38
Undecided 15 14
Undecided
15
19
Roemer
61%
59%
Roemer
59% --
Fields 22 24
Jefferson 21 --
Undecided 17 17
Undecided
20
--
MORE: Dastugue on 8/26 "walked away" with a victory in a
Christian Coalition-conducted straw poll, getting 128 of the 183
votes cast. Foster came in second (32 votes), Roemer third (17)
(N.O. TIMES-PICAYUNE, 8/29). W. POST's Edsall writes that with
Gov. Edwin Edwards (D) retiring, "traditional Democratic
populism" in the Edwards-Huey Long mold "is teetering close to
collapse. At the same time, allegations of widespread -- even
by Louisiana standards -- payoffs of state legislators by the
gambling industry are fueling voter discontent in a state that
has been economically stagnant" (8/30).
SENATE WATCH
*15 MICHIGAN: END-OF-SUMMER CAMP?
DETROIT FREE PRESS' McDiarmid writes that if Rep. Dave Camp
(R-04) runs for the seat of Sen. Carl Levin (D), it would
"convert a one-on-one primary" race -- between talk show host/'94
primary cand. Ronna Romney (R) and "virtually unknown" Detroit
businessman Jim Nicholson (R) -- into a "complex three-way
grapple." And it would "instantly force party regulars to
recalculate the odds and adjust earlier scenarios." If Camp
runs, consider the following: 1) Two men vs. one woman, which
helps Romney. 2) Two pro-lifers (Romney & Camp) vs. one pro-
choicer, which helps Nicholson. 3) Two southeastern MI cands.
vs. one out-stater, which helps Camp. But while Camp has
convinced several GOP "higher-ups" that a run is possible, there
are "problems" that may hinder a bid. He would have to give up a
secure position in the House, as well as a spot on House Ways &
Means. In addition, Camp "outspokenly endorsed" Romney in the
'94 primary, calling her the "right messenger." Finally,
"skeptics will note the last time a mid-Michigan congressman ran
against Levin -- Bill Schuette in 1990 -- he got clobbered"
(8/29). Schuette is a possible candidate for '96.
ENDORSEMENTS: Longtime GOP leader/'82 gov. nominee Richard
Headlee announced 8/28 for Romney and will serve as her honorary
chair. Headlee: "I believe Ronna Romney is Michigan's best
candidate to end Levin's 18-year reign in the U.S. Senate."
Headlee supported now-Sen. Spencer Abraham (R) in his '94 primary
against Romney. Headlee "joins a growing list of key Republican
leaders" endorsing Romney, including Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-11)
and Wayne Co. GOP chair Ed Haroutunian (Romney release, 8/28).
Meanwhile, Nicholson named Wayne Co. businessman David Brandon to
chair his finance cmte. Brandon: "I am confident our fundraising
team will raise over $2 million for Jim's primary campaign"
(Nicholson release, 8/29). Other possible GOPer: Rep. Peter
Hoekstra (R-02).
*16 NEW JERSEY: TORRICELLI HEARS NICE THINGS FROM DASCHLE
After a "closed door session" with Rep. Bob Torricelli (D-
09), Senate Min. Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) vowed to "pull out all
the stops" on behalf of Torricelli's quest for the seat of
retiring Sen. Bill Bradley (D). Calling Torricelli the Dems'
"best hope of retaining the Bradley seat," Daschle said the DSCC
will provide Torricelli's campaign with the "maximum allowable
financial help," should he win the primary. Daschle: "No one has
the national credibility in New Jersey that Bob Torricelli has.
He will get the maximum assistance from the party. We see this
as a very winnable race. New Jersey is a huge state for the
Democratic Party. It will be worth every effort to support Bob
Torricelli in this race." While Torricelli has not yet declared
his candidacy, he is "considered the frontrunner" for the Dem nod
and has said he "does not expect a tough fight" for the
nomination. But there is a long list of potential Dem opponents,
"headed by" ex-Gov. Jim Florio (Orr, Newark STAR LEDGER, 8/29).
Given the importance of the seat, DSCC officials have said they
expect to provide the maximum to whomever wins the primary.
Other possible Dems: Reps. Rob Andrews (D-01) & Robert Menendez
(D-13), Cherry Hill Mayor Susan Bass Levin, state Sens. John
Lynch & John Adler, Assemblyman Neil Cohen and Morris Co.
Prosecutor Michael Murphy.
DREAMY DEM: Some "prominent" NJ Dems are hoping John F.
Kennedy Jr. will enter the race. State Senate Min. Leader John
Lynch (D) called a Kennedy bid a "magnificent adventure for the
Democratic Party at a time when it sorely needs it." There are,
however, some problems with a Kennedy candidacy: he lives in NY;
he's busy launching GEORGE, a new political mag.; and his
spokesperson said he is "absolutely not" interested in a Senate
bid -- "no way, no how." But when Dems hear the name Kennedy,
"they get stars in their eyes." One Dem pointed out that
Kennedy's mother owned a lot of property in northern NJ, thus
making residency a "simple matter." As for Kennedy's reluctance
to run, one Dem said, "So what? Lots of the best candidates are
demure about running." Another Dem added, "We still have lots of
time to work this out" (Guenther, Camden COURIER-POST, 8/29).
ON THE GOP SIDE: Six GOP senators will host a fundraiser
for Rep. Dick Zimmer (R-12). Senate Maj. Leader Bob Dole, Maj.
Whip Trent Lott and Sens. John McCain (AZ), Hank Brown (CO), Rick
Santorum (PA) and Al D'Amato (NY) will host the event at the NRSC
on 9/14. Santorum, who served with Zimmer in the House, on why
he is backing Zimmer: "New Jersey taxpayers cannot afford another
tax-and-spend liberal in the Senate. Having seen how hard Dick
has worked to protect the interests of New Jersey taxpayers in
the House, I know what a big difference he will make in the
Senate" (Zimmer release, 8/29).
PEACHY KEAN? N.Y. TIMES' Sullivan writes that ex-Gov. Tom
Kean (R) "has told friends that he will decide quickly" whether
or not to enter the race, either this week before leaving for the
Women's Conference in China, or upon his return. One thing that
will not stop Kean this time as it did when he backed away
from a challenge to Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) in '94 -- is
"family concerns." He apparently has his family's "blessing"
this time around. FEC spokesperson Ian Stirton says that Kean
will not be able to use the $700K held by a state PAC created for
his earlier campaigns if he decides to run. Not everyone is
"delighted" by the prospect of a Kean candidacy, especially
Zimmer. GOPers are wary of a "divisive, fund-sapping" primary.
Meanwhile, Florio's interest is "creating waves." NJ Dem chair
Tom Byrne said of a potential Florio bid: "I respect Jim Florio,
but he's been running for office for 20 years and I think it's
time to give the new faces a chance and let them begin to define
the party" (8/30). Other announced GOPer: Passaic Co.
Freeholder Dick DuHaime. Other possible GOPers: Rep. Marge
Roukema (R-05), state Senate Pres. Donald DiFrancesco and state
Sens. Richard LaRossa & Bill Gormley.
ANOTHER COMEDIAN IN THE SENATE? PHILA. DAILY NEWS' Bykofsky
reports that Joe Piscopo is also considering a bid; Piscopo
describes himself as a conservative Dem who believes abortion is
a private matter and supports the death penalty (8/29).
ON THE HOUSE
*17 CAMPAIGN FINANCE: TOP 50 HOUSE MEMBERS IN RECEIPTS
Below is a list of the top 50 House members ranked by total
campaign receipts for the period 1/1-6/30. Individual and PAC
contributions, interest income and transfers from other accounts
are included.
NAME
RECEIPTS NAME
RECEIPTS
Dick Gephardt (D-MO) $1,218,922 Bill Zeliff (R-NH) $257,529
Newt Gingrich (R-GA) 884,897 Billy Tauzin (R-LA) 247,901
Tom Delay
(R-TX) 486,084 Rick White (R-WA) 245,021
Joe Kennedy
(D-MA) 473,205 Bill Baker (R-CA) 243,166
John Ensign
(R-NV)
448,698
P. Kennedy
(D-RI)
242,411
Nita Lowey
(D-NY)
429,303
Bill Paxon
(R-NY) 239,859
Tom Davis
(R-VA)
397,903
Jack Reed
(D-RI)
232,979
C. Schumer
(D-NY) 397,048 D. McIntosh (R-IN) 231,914
J. Christensen
(R-NE) 370,388 Bart Gordon (D-TN) 226,617
Joe Barton
(R-TX) 348,709 Dan Frisa (R-NY) 224,455
Tim Johnson
(D-SD) 342,332 G.Radanovich (R-CA) 216,343
John Boehner (R-OH) 314,251 Ed Markey (D-MA) 216,233
Philip Crane (R-IL) 307,063 Wayne Allard (R-CO) 211,930
Jennifer Dunn (R-WA) 302,360 John Linder (R-GA) 211,671
Bob Livingston (R-LA) 301,284 Don Young (R-AK) 210,395
Greg Ganske
(R-IN) 292,684 S. Chambliss (R-GA) 208,495
Vic Fazio
(D-CA) 288,892 Pat Roberts (R-KS) 207,735
John Dingell
(D-MI) 284,313 Jerry Weller (R-IL) 207,594
Bud Shuster
(R-PA)
283,316
Dick
Armey
(R-TX)
207,487
Peter Deutsch
(D-FL)
280,831
W.
Thomas
(R-CA)
202,867
Thomas Bliley
(R-VA)
274,061
Jon
Fox
(R-PA)
202,677
Jim McCrery
(R-LA) 271,078 Frank Riggs (R-CA) 201,309
Martin Frost (D-TX) 271,020 Bob Barr (R-GA) 200,644
Charlie Norwood (R-GA) 270,232 James Talent (R-MO) 197,320
Frank Cremeans (R-OH) 267,102 J. Costello (D-IL) 195,215
ANALYSIS: House members, particularly the "aggressive"
frosh, are "eclipsing all records in raising campaign cash."
Already, $43.8M has been raised by the 435 incumbents, a 38%
increase from the first cycle of 1993. Steve Stockmeyer, who
runs an assn. of business PACS: "Among some PAC groups, there's
been a sense of panic because they had invested so much in
[Dems]. Now they are playing catch-up, unashamedly. That's one
reason you're seeing the big numbers." GOPers credit the
"aggressive level of activity" to Gingrich and other high-ranking
GOP members who, "like the [Dems] before them, have sought to
return their majority status into fund-raising advantage."
Frosh, not veterans, "accounted for most of the increase": GOP
frosh average: $142,000; Dem frosh average: $78,000 (Drinkard,
AP/PHILA. INQUIRER, 8/30).
*18 IL 05: THE BALKANIZING OF CHICAGO
Alderman Richard Mell (D) is fighting to get his son-in-law,
state Rep. Rod Blagojevich (D), to be the Dem nominee to
challenge frosh Rep. Mike Flanagan (R) in '96. But Blagojevich
first has to get past a primary contest with state Rep. Nancy
Kaszak (D), a "strong vote getter" and a "Polish-American in a
district with a large Polish vote." While Blagojevich, a
Serbian-American, is the "early favorite" to get the nomination,
Mell "isn't taking any chances." His strategy is to recruit ex-
Ald. Carole Bialczak (D) to run and split the Polish vote. Since
there are "significantly more Poles than Serbs" in the 5th CD,
ethnicity is a potential advantage for Kaszak. But Mell's
"ethnic ploy could backfire" because Bialczak "doesn't have a
ghost of a chance of winning." That's fine with Mell; "he'll be
pleased if Bialczak slashes Kaszak's vote by 2 percent." And he
isn't "done scheming" yet. Mell may also field a candidate to
run against Flanagan in the GOP primary (Neal, CHICAGO SUN-TIMES,
8/29).
TV MONITOR
*19 THIS MORNING: "FOX Morning News" hosted THE HILL's Martin
Tolchin, Dem consultant Lesley Israel, NEA VP Bob Chase, Center
for Strategic and Int'l Studies' Col. William Taylor and Center
for Defense Information Adm. Eugene Carroll.
LAST NIGHT: "MacNeil/Lehrer" led with Bosnia. The three
nets led with the Mark Fuhrman tapes. "M/L" focused on Bosnia
with NEW YORKER's Anna Husarska, World Policy Institute's Walter
Russell Mead, Brookings' Susan Woodward and John Hopkins' Fouad
Ajami. CNN's "Inside Politics" hosted WMUR News Director Jack
Heath, BOSTON GLOBE's David Nyhan, NH GOP chair John Stabile and
ex-NBC and PBS pres. Larry Grossman. ABC's "Nightline" examined
the Fuhrman tapes.
TOP TENS: Thanks for all of your lists -- we're looking for
even more. Please fax your submissions to Andrea Short at 703-
518-8701.
TOP TEN REASONS WHY BOB PACKWOOD IS STILL IN THE SENATE
(submitted by Frank Wilkinson of EMILY's List)
10. Victim toll, while climbing, is still lower than that from
the San Francisco earthquake.
9. None of the women Packwood met on foreign junkets has been
contacted by the Ethics committee.
8. Congress' anti-regulation drive has stalled BATF plan to
register Packwood's tongue as a deadly weapon.
7. Colleagues concerned expulsion of Packwood might send a
hurtful message to Sen. Thurmond.
6. Packwood has promised a federal tax rebate to constituents
of senators who don't vote for public hearings.
5. Sen. Byrd is looking forward to replacing references to
Cicero and Xenon with references to Bacchus and Dionysus in
floor speeches.
4. Pat Moynihan using Packwood as source for his next welfare
book.
3. Many of the "incidents" were either minor or with a minor.
2. Senate colleagues just love having him around.
1. Bob Dole.
SOUNDBITE
"Phil Gramm's one of the best nitpickers in the business. It's
never quite enough when I do something. He's always there to say
something negative, he has that freedom, he's not the leader."
-- Bob Dole, on Gramm's criticism of Dole
as a compromiser, WMUR-TV, 8/29
-30-
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TEXT:
Content-Type: text
--- Friday September 1, 1995 Vol. 8 No. 237
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
3129 Mount Vernon Ave., Alexandria, VA 22305 703-518-4600
THE HOT BOX
SPOTLIGHT
I DREAM OF JEANE: Dole
WHY MIKE LOWRY IS NOT
co-chair Kirkpatrick being
RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT
mentioned for Sec/State, if
not VP a courting of the
Whenever Pete Wilson
Jewish vote? Bob's got a
leaves his state to
new IA manager. (#2)
campaign for pres., LG Gray
WAVY NAVY: A Gramm aide
Davis - a Dem becomes
stirs up controversy with
acting gov. Davis has not
an article that lampoons
caused any mischief (yet),
women in the Navy. (#3)
nothing like what then-LG
JAWS OF LIFE: Wilson to
I
Mike Curb (R) did to Jerry
to the rescue in an IA car
Brown (D) in '80.
wreck. Gets hit with more
But Wilson is not alone.
negative ads in NH, but his
Nine other govs. are also
poll numbers are up. (#1,18)
I
faced with their #2 of a
different party.
AL Gov. James (R), LG
THE PACKWOOD OFFENSIVE
Siegelman (D); AR Gov.
Embattled OR Sen. is ready to
-
Tucker (D), LG Huckabee
fight back in public hearings. I (R); NV -- Gov. Miller (D),
Who kissed whom, anyway? (#9)
LG Hammargren (R); RI --
Gov. Almond (R), LG Weygand
SWINGING FROM THE HIGHEST VINE (D); TN -- Gov. Sundquist
Rep. Tauzin's (R) a 1/2-step
(R), LG Wilder (D); TX --
ahead of the rest of the LA
Gov. Bush (R), LG Bullock
Senate field in new poll. (#14) (D); VT -- Gov. Dean (D),
LG Snelling (R); VA -- Gov.
WHAT'S A NICE GUY LIKE YOU
Allen (R), LG Beyer (D);
Rep. Moorhead (R-CA 27)
WA -- Gov. Lowry (D), LG
announces retirement. He just
Pritchard (R).
wasn't "mean" enough. (#15)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Jews are going to vote for Clinton and
anyone who says differently is crazy."
-- Dem Strategist Steve Rabinowitz, FORWARD, 9/1 issue.
(c) 1995 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition
extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or
affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
APN Founders: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Managing Editor: Ken Rudin
Deputy Managing Editor: Jessica Barrows
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: James Kaleigh, Benjamin White,
Ronald Eckstein, Sally Buffalo
Editorial Assistants: Mike McGill, Andrea Short
WHITE HOUSE '96: Wilson (#1); Dole (#2); Gramm (#3);
Perot (#4); Clinton (#5); Louisiana (#6); Field Notes (#7);
Candidate Schedules (#8)
NATIONAL BRIEFING
PACKWOOD: On the offensive. (#9)
HOTLINE ROLODEX: A tabloid item to spoil your weekend. (#10)
CAMPAIGNS OF '95:
LOUISIANA GOVERNOR: Landrieu accused of hypocrisy. (#11)
SENATE WATCH
RETIREMENT WATCH: Cohen says 4 or 5 retirees still to come. (#12)
KANSAS: Roberts runs around state, just in case. (#13)
LOUISIANA: Tauzin swinging from the highest vine. (#14)
ON THE HOUSE
CA 27: Spurned Moorhead says he's had enough. (#15)
IL 02: More charges for Reynolds. (#16)
CALIFORNIA: Lungren focuses on Gray Davis & Huffington. (#17)
POLL UPDATE: CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP (#18)
TV MONITOR (#19)
CORRECTION: The 8/31 HOTLINE attributed an interview with Steve
Forbes to NBC's "Today." He appeared on ABC's "GMA."
???? OVERLOOKED ????
Rep. Carlos Moorhead (R-CA 27), who has announced his retirement,
is one of only 7 members still in Congress who served on the
House Judiciary Cmte during the Nixon impeachment hearings in
'74. Others: John Conyers (D-MI), Charles Rangel (D-NY), Ray
Thornton (D-AR), Paul Sarbanes (D-MD), Bill Cohen (R-ME) & Trent
Lott (R-MS). Thornton, who is also retiring, did not serve from
1979-90. Sarbanes, Cohen & Lott are now in the Senate.
WHITE HOUSE '96
*1 WILSON: GETS SIDE-SWIPED IN IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE
Pete Wilson was forced to cancel an event at a Walcott, IA,
farm (near Davenport) after he and his wife Gayle were involved
in a Des Moines traffic accident. Two cars ahead of Wilson's
motorcade collided at an intersection, and one of them then slid
into the car carrying the Wilsons. Two people were injured, but
the Wilsons were not hurt and no damage was done to their car.
The motorcade remained at the scene until police and rescue
workers completed their work. Since he was already running late,
the Wilson staff decided to scrap the Walcott event, which left
Thurman Gaskill, a Wilson IA leader, disappointed. Gaskill:
"He's got to come out here and get on the ground and meet people.
This is a state where they expect to meet the candidates. I feel
we've got to spend more time in lowa. People expect that"
(Wiley/Yepsen, DES MOINES REGISTER, 9/1). Wilson did, however,
phone in to the event to say he would return to Davenport. A
Wilson release recounts the incident: "Immediately following the
collision, Governor Wilson exited his vehicle to render aid to
one of the passengers injured in the collision (8/31).
WELFARE SOUNDBITE: Earlier in Des Moines, Wilson criticized
Bob Dole's handling of the welfare-reform package: "The bill
taking shape with Senator Dole's compromises has more strings
attached than a marionette" (REGISTER, 9/1).
CA GROUP DOES ANTI-PETE RADIO: Manchester UNION LEADER's
DiStaso reports, "First, he's labeled a chameleon. Now, his
critics say, he's a weathervane." A group called "Speak Up,
America," headed by people "involved directly or indirectly in
California politics," said it will air radio ads on WHEB
(Portsmouth) and possibly other NH stations calling Wilson the
"ultimate political weathervane." Deane Little, exec. dir. of
the Palo Alto-based group, said the "non-partisan" group - which
includes Dem pollster Paul Maslin -- focuses on issues such as
"environmental protection, ethics in government and reproductive
rights. We also comment specifically on politicians when they
have serious ethical problems." The ad states that Wilson
promised Californians last year he wouldn't run for pres.
PARTIAL TEXT: "So, what's he doing in New Hampshire now? Not
vacationing, that's for sure. We'll state it plainly. We
believe that Pete Wilson lacks the moral character to be
President." Wilson spokesperson Dan Schnur: "If the measure of a
man is the enemies he makes, we're in pretty good shape.
I
suppose we ought to take it as an accomplishment. If a bunch of
Democrats are excited about playing in a Republican primary,
there must be something in Pete Wilson that scares them." Lamar
Alexander is also running anti-Wilson ads in NH, citing "flip-
flops" (9/1). In the '92 campaign, an AR-based group, ARIAS, ran
anti-Clinton radio ads in NH.
MORE ANTI-WILSON ADS: W.S. JOURNAL's "Washington Wire"
notes that "anti-tobacco crusaders dog" Wilson's campaign. CA-
based Americans for Nonsmokers' Rights aired radio ads in IA and
CA that "blast" Wilson for "diverting money" raised from CA's
cigarette tax. Instead of going to anti-smoking programs in CA,
they claim the money went to more general health programs. The
group has taken Wilson to court. The ad also criticizes campaign
chair Craig Fuller for ties to Phillip Morris. Ad excerpt: "You
think Pete Wilson's runnin' for president -- or just wants to be
the next Marlboro Man?" (9/1).
PRESERVE AND PROTECT: As Wilson "barnstormed" through eight
states in his announcement tour, he "brought with him a little
touch of home -- the California Highway Patrol." The CHP
accompanied Wilson as part of its $2.7M budget for "dignitary
protection" -- a service usually offered to statewide elected
officials "while they are in California." CHP spokesperson Steve
Kohler: "It's relatively rare to offer protection outside the
state because our responsibilities are mostly in California."
However, he said Wilson is "still the governor of California, and
it's still our responsibility to protect him." Stevan Allen, a
spokesperson for CA LG Gray Davis (D), who is acting gov. while
Wilson is out of the state: "Pete Wilson is entitled to
protection wherever he goes. The real question is why isn't he
here in California doing the job the taxpayers hired him to do?"
(Yoachum, S.F. CHRONICLE, 9/1).
*2 DOLE: DEMOTES IA MANAGER; KIRKPATRICK'S PROFILE RISING
Bob Dole "replaced his Iowa campaign manager in the wake of
his recent straw poll setback in Ames." Immediately after the
event, campaign strategist Tom Synhorst left KS to take over the
IA operation. In Synhorst's first move, longtime conservative
activist Darrell Kearney replaces Steve Gibbs as IA manager.
Gibbs will become IA field dir. Kearney: "The straw poll was a
wake-up call for Dole's supporters who thought we were so far
ahead, they didn't need to bother to vote. Our job from here
on out is to make it clear this is a horse race. We take nothing
for granted." Dole nat'l manager Scott Reed: "We asked Darrell
to come on board and refocus our efforts and keep us on track for
next February" (Yepsen, D.M. REGISTER, 9/1).
COMING ATTRACTIONS: Dole "plans to kick off the fall phase"
of his campaign next week "with a pre-emptive one-two punch. He
will criticize revisionism in the teaching of American history
and propose 'pro-growth' economics policy dear to the hearts of
supply-side Republicans" like Jack Kemp. Keynoting the American
Legion convention in Indianapolis 9/4, Dole "will expand on his
moral-values initiatives." He is expected to discuss "America's
need to keep up its defenses against foreign threats and that
America's unique culture faces threats at home. Specifically,
Dole will condemn proposed revisions in the teaching of American
history that emphasize negative aspects of the nation's past and
ignore many of its celebrated accomplishments." Dole also "will
endorse English as the official language of the nation." At the
Chicago Economic Club 9/5, Dole will make his "pro-growth" appeal
to supply siders Kemp and Jude Wanniski. He is expected to call
for a 60% supermajority vote of Congress to increase taxes and
will seek "high growth rates through tax breaks for the middle
class and simplifications and enhanced fairness in income tax
preparations." Phil Gramm will address the Chicago Economics
Club a week later (Hallow, W. TIMES, 9/1).
HMMM: W.S. JOURNAL's "Washington Wire" reports the U.S.
trade deficit with Mexico has critics of NAFTA on the rise. Dole
-- "once a big NAFTA backer -- now seeks his distance" (9/1).
KIRKPATRICK WILL BECOME MORE VISIBLE: The Jewish FORWARD's
Lagnado writes that "a battle for the hearts and minds -- not to
mention the pocketbooks -- of Jewish and Republican voters is
taking shape" and ex-U.N. Amb. Jeane Kirkpatrick, "one of the
most battle-scarred defenders of Israel in the GOP camp," is
"emerging" as a major part of the Dole camp. Although she is
"sidestepping the question" of her role in a Dole admin.,
"sources in the campaign" said Kirkpatrick, a nat'l co-chair for
Dole, is "being talked about" as probable Sec/State," if she is
not tapped for VP. The "backstage role" Kirkpatrick has played
"will become more visible" in the coming months as other GOP
hopefuls "seek to position themselves to appeal to Jewish voters
and campaign contributors." But ex-Clinton aide Steve Rabinowitz
is skeptical of Kirkpatrick's impact: "Dole has a tremendous
problem in the Jewish community. Jews are going to vote for
Clinton and anyone who says differently is crazy" (9/1).
ENDORSEMENTS: The Dole campaign has announced the addition
of NH Senate Pres. Joe Delahunty as a state vice chair (release,
8/31). Dole has also won the endorsement of Christine Moore.
Moore "is recognized statewide as a key leader of the [FL]
Christian Coalition. She will play an active role in recruiting
conservative leaders across [FL]" (release, 8/30).
*3 GRAMM: STAFFER PENS CONTROVERSIAL NAVAL ARTICLE
A NAVY TIMES article, written by Phil Gramm's issues
director Larry Di Rita, which "lampoons diversity and women in
the service," has "divided" readers of the magazine. The
"satirical" piece is set aboard an aircraft carrier doing rain-
forest research off the coast of Brazil. The captain of the ship
has to delay his scheduled leave for three months because "his
replacement is on maternity leave." Retired navy Commander
Deborah Gernes called the piece "hysterical ranting," and said
she had never felt the need to protest anything in the magazine
until now. Gernes called Di Rita's work an "offensive and
unprofessional commentary," and an "insult to every professional
navy officer." Navy Capt. Dick Bates (ret.) "thought it was good
satire." Bates, who graduated from the Naval Academy in 1948,
"opposes women on combat vessels," and calls himself a "relic
from the past." Di Rita, an '80 Academy grad, could not be
reached for comment. In the article, the action takes place on
the USS Pat Schroeder. In the story, a seaman of "IndoUgric"
heritage sues his superior, charging "insensitivity to
diversity." Andrea Camp, spokesperson for Schroeder, said Di
Rita is "from the flat earth caucus": "It sounds like a very
reactionary fear-of-the-future attitude" (Gamerman/Bowman, Balto.
SUN, 9/1).
CHALLENGES DOLE ON EMBARGO: Gramm again "challenged" Bob
Dole not to delay a Senate vote to override Pres. Clinton's veto
of the Bosnian arms embargo. Gramm: "The sooner we let Bosnians
defend themselves, the sooner there will be no reason to send
American pilots to fight in Bosnia." Gramm argued that attempts
by the Clinton admin. to negotiate a peace settlement "risks
deeper U.S. involvement": "It is Bill Clinton's right to be
consistently wrong, but Republicans shouldn't fall in line behind
him" (REUTER/USA TODAY, 9/1).
*4 PEROT: HAS "NIGHTLINE" ALL TO HIMSELF
Ross Perot appeared last night on "Nightline." Asked which
independent candidate he'd support: "I'm not going to pick a
horse." Asked about an indie's viability: "The deck is totally
stacked against that person all the rules, all the
regulations, all the campaign money. If you go out as an
independent candidate there's no way in the world you're going to
get enough money to finance your own campaign because the
Democrats and Republicans split up everything the Treasury gets."
On the GOP Congress: "It's very important that those pledges
[made in the Contract with America] be kept, very important that
we get campaign finance reform, that we get ethical reform in
Congress, get the basic things the American people want." On
'92: "All the exit polls show that if everyone who had wanted to
vote for me had voted for me and had not been talked out of it by
saying don't waste your vote, believe it or not, I would have
won. That's one of the best kept secrets in the universe."
Asked if the American people could handle the hard solutions to
the budget, Social Security, Medicare: "They are grown up. They
understand it. Once you know you have cancer, you start looking
for chemotherapy -- and that ain't pretty. They know we are
on a short fuse as far as our financial condition" (ABC, 8/31).
*5 CLINTON: HARD RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER BOSNIA
Pres. Clinton, visiting Hawaii to commemorate allied victory
over Japan, called the air-strikes against the Bosnian Serbs the
"right response to savagery." He told a crowd in Honolulu that
he hoped they were "proud of the role" the U.S. Armed Forces are
playing in helping NATO forces deliver a "loud and clear" message
to the Bosnian Serbs. The WWII commemorations follow Clinton's
two week Wyoming vacation. Despite the interruptions of world
events, Clinton said that he would return to Washington with "a
great deal of renewed energy and spirit and hope for our country"
(Lewis, DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 9/1).
SEIZING THE DAY: Balto. SUN's Lewthwaite writes a "crucial
new element" is driving the "more aggressive allied pursuit of
peace" in the Balkans: "United States leadership." The Clinton
admin. is "seizing the moment both to propose a formula for
negotiations and to fill the air-space over Bosnia with U.S. led
attack jets." For Clinton "being able to untie the Gordian knot
that is Bosnia would lend a political boost to his re-election
prospects" (9/1). PHILA. INQUIRER's Rubin writes the air-
strikes, combined with the U.S. push to get peace negotiations
started, "add up to something that has been missing for the last
four years: a coherent U.S. policy. A U.S. president finally
seems committed to ending the fighting and brokering a peace"
(9/1). CNN's Blitzer: "The President's message was dual-pronged.
He was effectively, once again, drawing a line in the sand
against the Bosnian Serbs. At the same time, he is
reaching out in terms of the negotiating process. The
President is trying to make a case that this is a turning point
in Bosnia, and his aides insist that if things go smoothly, if
the message can be delivered loud and clear, the message of the
NATO air strikes, then this will create an opportunity for a
peace settlement to emerge" (8/31).
WHITEWATER: W. POST EDITORIAL: "When a special grand jury
in Little Rock hands up an indictment, and the White House puts
out a press release noting that Bill and Hillary Clinton were not
charged, you know Whitewater has taken us to a new place. The
independent prosecutor is slowly working his way deep into the
Clinton governorship. If the Clintons broke no laws, did they,
in essence, turn a blind eye to what was going on around them?"
(8/31). AR DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE's Meredith Oakley, asked if the
Clintons will be hurt by Whitewater: "Short of falling right at
the doorstep of Bill and Hillary Clinton, which this case
involving [AR Gov.] Tucker appears not to do, they'll be okay"
("Inside Politics," CNN, 8/31).
*6 LOUISIANA: NEWSFLASH! CLINTON LEADS DOLE IN SOUTHERN STATE
A Shreveport TIMES poll, conducted 8/25-28 by Mason Dixon/
PMR, surveyed 828 registered LA voters; margin of error +/- 3.5%.
Subsample: 178 likely GOP voters; +/- 7.5% (9/1).
CLINTON JOB
ALL
MEN
WOMEN
DEM
GOP
Exc/good
38%
30%
46%
45%
19%
Fair/poor
62
70
54
55
81
GOP PRIMARY
ALL
MEN
WOMEN
Dole
37%
33%
41%
Gramm
18
21
15
Buchanan
16
18
14
Wilson
5
5
5
Alexander
5
6
4
Lugar
1
1
1
Specter
1
:
2
Dornan
1
2
--
Keyes
1
1
1
Fletcher
--
--
--
Undec.
15
13
17
GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS
Clinton 46%
Clinton 51%
Dole
44
Gramm
37
Undec.
10
Undec.
12
Clinton 36%
Clinton 38%
Dole
32
Gramm
26
Powell
15
Powell
21
Undec.
17
Undec.
15
*7 FIELD NOTES: LUGAR, SPECTER, WILSON TO GET MATCHING FUNDS
The Federal Election Commission certified Dick Lugar, Arlen
Specter and Pete Wilson for receiving federal matching funds.
The first candidate to qualify was Phil Gramm on 3/20; Lamar
Alexander, Pat Buchanan and Bob Dole were certified as eligible
5/31. To become eligible for matching funds, campaigns must
raise $5,000 in 20 different states in amounts no greater than
$250 from any individual. Other requirements include agreeing to
an overall spending limit, abiding by spending limits in each
state, using public funds only for legitimate campaign-related
expenses, keeping financial records and permitting an extensive
campaign audit (FEC releases, 8/30-31).
DORNAN: The ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION reports "racial
slurs by staff members" of Bob Dornan's campaign "have resulted
in several dismissals." Terry Dornan-Cobban, Dornan's daughter
and campaign manager, "said some staffers have been asked to
leave when they used racial language or urged Dornan to stop
highlighting his past association with Martin Luther King Jr. in
the 1960s." Dornan-Cobban "said one dismissed staffer also made
inappropriate remarks about women." With so little in funds,
Dornan's campaign "is run by his family with no regular paid
staff" (8/31).
TV TALK: ABC Pol. Dir. Hal Bruno, on the pitfalls of
primary compression: "We've never seen anything happen this fast
and this early. This is a terrible way to go about doing it.
There's a lot to be said for going back to the days when the
party leadership did it. The qualities it takes to win a
nomination are not necessarily the qualities we look for in a
president." PBS' Ken Bode: "It's a terrible system. We need
time to look at these candidates. It's always better to know
everything you can about a candidate before you elect him
President rather than find out afterwards, and Whitewater is an
example of something like that. There's just not time, unless
you begin now, to do really intensive work reporting on every one
of
these
candidates, and there just isn't the appetite in the
news consumer out there to receive that information now. That's
the dilemma we have" ("Inside Politics," CNN, 8/31). Ex-Clinton
press sec. Dee Dee Myers, asked who Clinton feared most in the
GOP field: "If General Powell were to get into this as a
Republican, I think that would be a very difficult situation
any of the other candidates, President Clinton is in a very good
position to beat. Clearly it would be a little tougher to
beat a more moderate Republican, but I think the White House
believes that it's going to be very difficult for a moderate
Republican, say Lamar Alexander, Pete Wilson, to win the
nomination" ("GMA," ABC, 9/1).
*8 GOP CANDIDATE SCHEDULES: WHERE THEY'LL BE
ALEXANDER: 9/1-4 -- Vacation w/family
9/5 -- Milwaukee, WI, w/Bill Bennett to fight for
WI school choice program
BUCHANAN: 9/1-3 -- No campaign events scheduled
9/4 -- Candler, FL at Townley Manufacturing for
Marion Co. Labor Day celebration
9/5 -- College Park, GA for news conference
-- Hartwell, GA for luncheon and fundraiser
DOLE: 9/1 -- Weirs Beach, & Wolfeboro, NH for Fall Campaign
Kickoff "Boatercade"
9/2 -- No campaign events scheduled
9/3 -- Darlington, SC for a NASCAR Winston Cup race
9/4 -- Indianapolis, IN at American Legion Convention
for keynote speech on values
-- Ottumwa, IA for Labor Day Rally
-- Burlington, IA for Des Moines Co. GOP Hog Roast
9/5 -- Chicago Economic Club for major policy speech
DORNAN: Schedule not available
GRAMM: 9/1-4 -- No media events scheduled
9/5 -- Washington, DC for Senate business
KEYES: 9/1 -- St. Croix, Virgin Islands for conference
9/2 -- St. Thomas, Virgin Islands
9/4 -- Candler, FL at Townely Manufacturing for
Marion Co. Labor Day celebration
9/5 -- Ft. Myers, FL
LUGAR: 9/1 -- Hopkinton Fair, NH
-- Appearances on Adler On-Line (TV program)
& David Brudnoy on WBZ Boston
9/2 -- Ellsworth, Blue Hill & Bangor, ME
9/3-4 -- Vacation w/family
SPECTER: 9/1-2 -- No campaign events scheduled
9/3 -- Appearance on CBS' "Face the Nation"
9/4 -- No media events scheduled
9/5 -- Washington, DC for Senate business
TAYLOR: 9/1 -- Kennebunk & York, ME
WILSON: 9/1 -- L.A. Police Academy Law Enforcement breakfast
9/2 -- Sacramento, CA for bill signings
9/3 -- Jackson Hole, WY for fundraiser
9/4 -- Indianapolis, IN
9/5 -- Indianapolis, IN for American Legion event
-- Washington, DC for fundraisers
NATIONAL BRIEFING
*9 PACKWOOD: ON THE OFFENSIVE
In what appears to be a "glimpse" of what "would likely
come" if the Senate Ethics Cmte next week grants Sen. Bob
Packwood's (R-OR) request for public hearings on sexual
misconduct allegations against him, Packwood atty Charles Slepian
said that "one of the accusers was once seen voluntarily planting
a big kiss" on Packwood. Thus, what would be expected to come
with public hearings is "a flood of embarrassingly personal he-
did, she-did charges and countercharges, fodder for a thousand
supermarket headlines and a television spectacle lurid enough to
outdraw a soap opera." The Ethics cmte is scheduled to meet 9/6,
its first mtg since Packwood's request for public hearings, which
followed two new accusations against him, one of which came from
a woman who was then 17 years old. A "key question" will be
whether cmte chair Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will drop his
opposition to public hearings. But since Packwood now supports
them, his request will be "hard to deny." Sen. John McCain (R-
AZ): "We'd show solidarity with what Bob Packwood wants." While
"much is unclear about the shape and timing" of the hearings if
they were to be held, many "expect that they would be
reminiscent" of the '91 Clarence Thomas-Anita Hill hearings. If
Packwood's recent press conferences are "any indication," his
defense strategy will be "trying to impugn his accusers'
credibility" (Hook, L.A. TIMES, 9/1). Slepian's announcement
refers to a deposition from a woman who worked with Packwood
accuser Mary Heffernan at the National Abortion Rights Action
League in the '80s and was at an '82 reception that was also
attended by Packwood and Heffernan. The deposition said
Heffernan "walked briskly over to the senator, threw her arms
around him, hugged him and kissed him on the lips." Packwood's
response was described as "very friendly, normal, not anything
out of the ordinary." Heffernan's complaint involved an incident
in '81 or '82 when she visited Packwood's office as a lobbyist
for NARAL. She alleged Packwood "squeezed her arms and leaned
over and kissed her on the mouth." It is "unclear" which of
these events took place first, or if they are the same incident.
This witness wants to remain anonymous now, but "is prepared to
be identified and testify if public hearings are held." She
claims to have written the ethics cmte in 5/95, but got no
response. A cmte source "said the panel was aware of what she
had to say but did not regard it as 'having any impact in the
incident' involved in the allegation" (Dewar, W. POST, 9/1). The
woman insists her story is relevant: "If we assume the incident
Mary Heffernan alleges preceded the friendly incident I
witnessed, she was, in effect, rewarding the senator's previous
bad behavior, giving him no indication he offended her. If, on
the other hand, the bad incident followed the friendly one I
witnessed, she, in effect, led him on" (W. TIMES, 9/1). Slepian
released four other depositions last week challenging the
credibility of another accuser and said more statements --
"perhaps as many as 100" -- challenging the accusations will be
released in coming weeks (Dewar, W. POST, 9/1). Heffernan
"called Packwood's release of the deposition an attempt by him to
scare off his accusers" (USA TODAY, 9/1).
STRATEGY: Slepian: "It appears that a kiss took place, but
she was the one making the delivery of that kiss. This is part
of why we are asking so hard to have the Senator, among other
things, be given the right to cross-examine his witnesses at a
hearing and to get the authority to subpoena witnesses" (CNN,
8/31). Packwood accuser Gena Hutton, whose credibility was
questioned last week with the release of depositions claiming she
"continued to work" for Packwood following the incidents she
complained about, "dismissed" Packwood's strategy as "an 11th-
hour attempt to smear and intimidate the women in advance of
public hearings." She said she and other accusers "had been
expecting a smear attempt to turn them into the accused once
[Packwood] changed his mind and demanded hearings. He's
trying to save his political career at the expense of everyone
and anyone." Packwood comm. dir. Matt Evans "denied" that
Packwood was now fighting "more aggressively because he sensed"
that his leadership of the Senate Finance Cmte was "increasingly
at stake as the case against him persisted": "The Senator
essentially remained silent for two and a half years on these
allegations despite in many cases knowing what was being said
publicly about him was not true. I think he just got tired of
it." Evans also contends that Packwood was hoping for a "fair
decision" from the Ethics cmte but decided that was not a
"workable strategy" after the announcement that two more
allegations would be added to the charges against him.
*10 HOTLINE ROLODEX: A TABLOID ITEM TO SPOIL YOUR WEEKEND
N.Y. POST cover: "JFK Jr. Pops the Question." POST's Nguyen
reports soon-to-be magazine publisher JFK Jr., 34, "has given his
live-in squeeze," Carolyne Bessette, an engagement ring. "But
friends say Bessette is taking her 'sweet time' to decide." A
source: "She still won't say yes I do" (9/1).
CAMPAIGNS OF '95
*11 LOUISIANA GOV: EDITORIAL ACCUSES LANDRIEU OF HYPOCRISY
A Baton Rouge ADVOCATE editorial comments on the recent
FORBES article on Treas. Mary Landrieu's (D) campaign
contributions, stating the magazine "has a valid point" about her
questionable contributions (see HOTLINE, 8/31). Noting that
Landrieu has taken contributions from bond firms that do business
with the state while she has called for a ban on campaign
contributions from gambling interests, the paper questions
whether her actions are "any different from legislators taking
contributions from gambling interests": "Just like the gambling
business, the bond business is a highly lucrative one. There is
a lot of money to spread around to bond attorneys and
consultants, and the business has been the subject of earlier
scandals in Louisiana, as well as in other states. In short,
it's just one more case in which a business can exert undue
influence through campaign contributions and in which there is an
opportunity for political officeholders to be swayed in the
performance of their duties by campaign contributions.
Perhaps she also should be calling for a ban on campaign
contributions from bond interests" (8/31). Other Dems: LG
Melinda Schwegmann, state Sens. Mike Foster & Don Kelly, state
Rep. Robert Adley, atty Phil Preis, Orleans Levee Board Pres.
Robert Harvey and Reps. Cleo Fields (D-04) & William Jefferson
(D-02). GOPers: ex-Gov. Buddy Roemer, state Rep. Quentin
Dastugue, Delgado Comm. College prof. Anne Thompson and Rev.
Carey Kimbrell. Possible GOPer: '91 cand. David Duke. Filing
deadline: 9/7. Election: 10/21. Runoff: 11/18.
EDWARDS SURGERY: Retiring Gov. Edwin Edwards (D) underwent
heart surgery 8/30 after doctors found blockage during a routine
exam. Edwards' oldest son, Stephen, "said his father was told
the surgery did not have to be performed immediately and could
have been scheduled for a later date." The gov. is expected to
be hospitalized for about six days (AP, 8/30).
SENATE WATCH
*12 RETIREMENT WATCH: COHEN SAYS 4 OR 5 RETIREES STILL TO COME
In announcing his decision not to seek Bill Bradley's (D)
open Senate seat in '96, ex-NJ Gov. Tom Kean (R) trashed
Washington and said he couldn't serve with the "radicals" of his
own party (see HOTLINE 8/31). W. POST's Russakoff reports Sen.
Bill Cohen (R-ME), who is running for a fourth term in '96, "said
he knows of 'at least four of five" more senators who will
announce they are leaving, in addition to the six Dems and one
GOPer -- Bradley, Exon (D-NE), Pryor (D-AR), Johnston (D-LA),
Heflin (D-AL), Simon (D-IL) & Brown (R-CO) -- who already are
bowing out. Cohen "would not name names, but there is
speculation" that he was talking about those still on everybody's
lists of possible retirees: Mark Hatfield (R-OR), Nancy
Kassebaum (R-KS), Sam Nunn (D-GA), Claiborne Pell (D-RI) and
Strom Thurmond (R-SC) (9/1).
*13 KANSAS: ROBERTS RUNS AROUND STATE, JUST IN CASE
Rep. Pat Roberts (R-01), whose CD covers vitually all of
central and western KS, ventured east to Kansas City for the
"stated reason" of promoting the '95 farm bill. "But another
purpose was obvious": "running for a possible open U.S. Senate
seat in Kansas next year." Popular three-term Sen. Nancy
Kassebaum (R), who did not raise a penny in the first half of
'95, is yet to announce her intentions. Her cash-on-hand is
$112,000. Roberts, of Dodge City, chairs the House Ag. Cmte. In
K.C., he also met with the K.C. Star's editorial board, spoke to
the K.C. Chamber of Commerce and held a fund-raiser in Overland
Park. Earlier in the week, he raised money in Topeka, also
outside his CD. Roberts said he does not know what Kassebaum
will do. But, "based on private talks with her", Roberts said,
Kassebaum's "preference is to step down." Roberts: "I think she
wants to return to private life" (Kraske, K.C. STAR, 9/1).
*14 LOUISIANA: TAUZIN SWINGING FROM THE HIGHEST VINE
Shreveport TIMES poll, conducted 8/25-28 by Mason Dixon/
PMR, surveyed 828 registered LA voters; margin of error 3.5%
(release, 8/31). Tested: Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-03), Rep. Jim
McCrery (R-05), AG Richard leyoub (D), Sec/State Fox McKeithen
(R), Rep. Jimmy Hayes (D-07), Rep. Richard Baker (R-06), state
Sen./'78 Dem primary cand. Woody Jenkins (R), oilman Pat Taylor
(R), ex-Dem House Speaker Bubba Henry (R) and state Sen. Max
Jordan (R).
SENATE PRIMARY
SENATE PRIMARY
W/ McCRERY
W/OUT McCRERY
Tauzin
22%
Tauzin
26%
McCrery
17
leyoub
16
leyoub
13
McKeithen
10
McKeithen
8
Hayes
8
Hayes
7
Baker
7
Wilson
6
Wilson
6
Baker
5
Jenkins
3
Jenkins
3
Taylor
2
Taylor
2
Henry
--
Henry
--
Jordan
--
Jordan
--
Undec.
22
Undec.
17
RUNOFF:
Tauzin
44%
Tauzin
52%
Tauzin
42%
leyoub
32
Hayes
21
McCrery 29
Undec.
24
Undec.
27
Undec.
29
WHY DID TAUZIN SWITCH PARTIES?
For political advantage
47%
Dem party too liberal
31
Both
8
DK
14
REAX: Rep. Jim McCrery (R-05) said, "It is encouraging to
have such favorable numbers in a statewide poll, considering I
have never run statewide. I appreciate the advice and
encouragement many people have given me regarding my potential
candidacy for the U.S. Senate. I will continue to take their
opinions to heart" (release, 8/31).
ON THE HOUSE
*15 CA 27: SPURNED MOORHEAD SAYS HE'S HAD ENOUGH
Rep. Carlos Moorhead (R) announced 8/29 that he will not
seek reelection to the seat he's held since '73: "When you've
been in Congress for as long as I have -- 23 years -- it's a very
difficult decision to decide not to run for re-election. It's
one I've been struggling with for the past year or so." During
the press conference, Moorhead "called for more respect" among
House members and "made a plea" to constituents and the press to
"stop bashing" their congressmen. He also admitted that he may
have stayed "had he been granted the chairmanship of a few
powerful committees," Judiciary and Commerce. Instead, he was
passed up and received a less important subcmte chair. Speaker
Newt Gingrich reportedly would not give Moorhead Judiciary or
Commerce because he was "not mean enough." Moorhead: "Well, I
certainly don't want to be a mean person. That is my last desire
in life" (Turner, GLENDALE NEWS PRESS, 8/30). Moorhead's
announcement confirmed "months of speculation." Moorhead, on the
"current tone of politics": "The campaigns are much more
cantankerous." Analysts "saw the announcement as an indication
that the [GOP], in its aggressive pursuit for change on Capitol
Hill, had passed Moorhead by." Brookings' Thomas Mann: "A new
aggressive Republican has taken charge in the House, and while
Moorhead's ideology is similar to his colleagues, his pragmatic
style is a declining commodity on Capitol Hill. Carlos
Moorhead is a nice, decent guy who found himself left behind."
Moorhead "acknowledged" that idea, "saying he didn't want to
remain in the House longer than he should, as the new, youthful
Congress takes control": "I think some members stay too long."
Asked if he was not "aggressive" enough for the new Congress,
Moorhead responded he goes by the Christian philosophy to "love
your neighbor as you love yourself" (Martin/Lacey, L.A. TIMES,
8/30).
PASSING THE TORCH: Moorhead endorsed Assemblyman Jim Rogan
(R) -- who announced his candidacy right after Moorhead's
announcement -- as his successor. Rogan said Moorhead will
"leave very large shoes to fill, and if it is the will of the
voters, I would be honored to serve as his successor." Rogan's
announcement "follows months of speculation." There was "talk"
that Rogan would stay where he was "if he could secure the [CA
Assembly] speakership. But with the failure of a recall effort
against Stockton Democrat Michael Machado, it doesn't appear
Republicans will be able to put together enough votes to
overthrow [GOP Speaker] Doris Allen, who has vowed to stand her
ground." Rogan said he "would rather see" GOP leader Curt
Pringle ascend to the speakership. Announced candidate/two-time
Moorhead foe Doug Kahn (D), on Rogan: "I will welcome (Rogan) to
the race, but remind voters of his stance. As conservative as
Moorhead is, he's a moderate compared to Rogan." Another Dem
candidate, Barry Gordon, pointed out that the CD supported Bill
Clinton and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) in '92 and LG Gray Davis
(D) in '94: "It's clear that moderate Democrats can win in this
district." Also running is Elizabeth Michael (Libertarian)
(Turner, GLENDALE NEWS PRESS, 8/30). The open CD is "expected to
spark a flurry of jockeying for the seat, particularly among
state officeholders facing term limits" (Martin/Lacey, L.A.
TIMES, 8/30).
*16 IL 02: MORE CHARGES FOR REYNOLDS
Rep. Mel Reynolds (D) is facing a U.S. Atty's investigation
to determine whether he "illegally converted campaign funds to
personal use, and whether he lied about his finances in violation
of banking laws." Federal investigators were "taking notes"
during Reynolds' sexual misconduct case in preparation "for the
next case against him." Included in the revelations were that
Reynolds used campaign funds to help pay for his suburban home
and to rent the apartment where his sexual activities with with
an underage Beverly Heard occurred. Also revealed was that
Heard's original atty, who has since been indicted on
obstruction-of-justice and other charges, had cashed three checks
totaling $5,200 from Reynolds' campaign fund when Heard recanted
her accusations last January. Reynolds "had failed to make good
on thousands of dollars in personal and political debts" and that
one of his campaign cmtes failed to report thousands of dollars
in contributions. He is also the "target of many bank lawsuits,
including one filed [8/30] seeking to foreclose on his home."
Reynolds has refused to comment (AP/W. TIMES, 9/1). ATLANTA
JOURNAL/CONSTITUTION editorial urges that, should Reynolds fail
to resign, "the House Ethics Committee shouldn't waste any time
recommending expulsion" (8/31).
TV GUIDE: Reynolds appears on "Larry King Live" tonight at
7:00 pm EDT. CHICAGO SUN-TIMES' Roeper suggests a few questions
for King, including, "Want to kiss me like Brando did?" (8/31).
50 STATE
*17 CALIFORNIA: LUNGREN FOCUSES ON GRAY DAVIS & HUFFINGTON
CALIFORNIA JOURNAL WEEKLY's Scott reports, "If the line is
forming for candidates in the 1988 governor's race, then [GOP AG]
Dan Lungren is definitely one of the overnight campers. Lungren
became the hands-down winner of the 'early bird' award earlier
this month" by sending out a fundraising letter for the '98 race.
Lungren, in the letter: "I want to make it clear to you that it
would be my intention to wage such a campaign for Governor." The
mailing requested "a minimum" of $500 and "played heavily on
fears of [Dem LG] Gray Davis, a favorite GOP pariah", who already
has $500,000 in his campaign account. Although Davis
spokesperson Gary South "concedes" Davis has a half-million, he
"argues that it's almost all carryover from" '94. Lungren's
brother/campaign adviser Brian Lungren: "Gray Davis has been
raising money since he graduated high school." The pitch may
seem early to some, but "political pros believe the letter was a
smart tactical maneuver" and "to insiders the pitch appeared
intended not so much to raise money as to raise a flag in front
of" ex-Rep./'94 GOP Sen. nominee Michael Huffington (see HOTLINE,
8/16). Huffington is considering a run for gov. or the sen. in
'98, but "recently has dropped hints his first choice" would be
the former. Should Huffington run for gov., his "willingness to
spend down his personal fortune" would prove a "sizeable
roadblock for Lungren in a competitive primary." Huffington,
downplayed the mailing: "Most people I know in the party are
thinking only about 1996. To the average voter, 1998 is light
years away" (9/4 issue).
POLL UPDATE
*18 CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP: WILSON LIKES THIS POLL
1,017 adults surveyed 8/28-30; margin of error +/- 3%.
Subsample: 444 GOP primary voters; +/- 4.6% (CNN release, 8/31).
CLINTON JOB NOW 7/95 CONGRESS JOB NOW 7/95
Approve
46%
48%
Approve
30%
35%
Disapprove
43
42
Disapprove
60
55
DOLE JOB
NOW
6/95
GENERIC CONG. BALLOT (w/leaners)
Approve
51%
48%
NOW 7/95
Disapprove
34
35
GOP candidate
45%
46%
Dem candidate
44
46
GOP PRIMARY (w/leaners)
GENERAL ELECTION (w/leaners)
8/28-30 8/4-7
NOW 8/4-7
Dole
45%
46%
Clinton 49%
46%
Gramm
11
9
Dole
46
47
Wilson
10
4
Buchanan
7
10
Alexander
4
4
Lugar
3
2
Keyes
2
2
Specter
2
3
Dornan
1
1
No opinion
15
19
GOP CONGRESS so FAR NOW 4/95
THIS CONGRESS HAS DONE
Success
52%
54%
More than others
24%
Failure
35
35
Less than others
16
About the same
57
HAS CLINTON COOPERATED
HAS CONGRESS COOPERATED
ENOUGH W/THE GOP CONGRESS?
ENOUGH W/CLINTON?
Yes
58%
Yes
38%
No
35
No
55
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
CLINTON
GOP LEADERS
Budget deficit
35
44
Economy
39
46
Taxes
39
45
Crime
39
41
Welfare
43
42
Medicare
45
38
IF THE HILL GOP AND CLINTON DO NOT AGREE ON FEDERAL SPENDING
GOALS THIS FALL, THE GOV'T WILL HAVE TO SHUT DOWN ALL NON-
ESSENTIAL SERVICES UNTIL A BUDGET IS PASSED. WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN?
People in gov't should be more willing to compromise,
60%
even if it means they pass a budget I disagree with
People in gov't should stand by their principles,
35
even if it means the gov't shuts down
WILL THE SENATE ETHICS CMTE CONDUCT A FAIR INVESTIGATION OF
THE SEXUAL HARASSMENT CHARGES AGAINST SEN. BOB PACKWOOD?
NOW
12/92
Very/Somewhat confident
45%
43%
Not too/Not at all
52
54
WHY ARE GOPers TRYING TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO MEDICARE?
They want to use savings to pay for budget tax cuts 44%
Changes are necessary to save program
43
TV MONITOR
*19 THIS MORNING: ABC's "GMA" hosted Dee Dee Myers. "CBS This
Morning" hosted OH Gov. George Voinovich (R). "FOX Morning News"
hosted Reps. Lee Hamilton (D-IN) and Connie Morella (R-MD).
THIS WEEKEND: NBC's "Meet the Press" hosts AFL-CIO interim
pres. Thomas Donahue and Service Employees International Union's
John Sweeney. ABC's "Brinkley" hosts Asst. Sec/State Richard
Holbrooke, Phil Gramm and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT). CNN's
"Larry King Live" hosts Rep. Mel Reynolds (D-IL). CNN's "Evans &
Novak" hosts Labor Sec. Robert Reich. CNN's "Capital Gang" hosts
GOP strategist Ed Rollins. CNN's "IP Weekend" hosts Donahue.
CNN's "Crossfire Sunday" hosts Rep. Bill Paxon (R-NY) and Sen.
Paul Wellstone (D-MN).
LAUGHS: Leno, on Pete Wilson's car accident in IA: "Well
you can understand that -- nine Republican candidates in the same
state all making right turns -- they're bound to run into each
other sooner or later." Leno, on Mel Reynolds' appearance on
"Larry King Live": "Is that a good idea -- putting a guy
convicted of phone sex on a call-in show?" Leno, on the UN
Conference: "This is the largest meeting of women since Bob
Packwood's accusers got together." Leno, on Bob Packwood's claim
that he doesn't remember abusing these women: "Let's take him out
to dinner, buy him a few drinks and when he wakes up the next
morning, tell him 'You resigned yesterday, don't you remember?"
("Tonight Show," NBC, 8/31).
TOP TEN REASONS HOTLINE WANTS LETTERMAN TO RETURN FROM VACATION
(If you think the Top Ten lists we print are of questionable
quality -- and you're wrong -- you should see the rejects.
Here's a sample of what has polluted our fax this week.)
10. Top Ten Things You Can't Do With Windows '95.
9. Top Ten Signs You Are Going To Be the Subject of
Congressional Hearings.
8. Top Ten National Football League Innovations For 1995.
7. Top Ten Reasons We're Already Tired Of The Whole "George"
Magazine Thing.
6. Top Ten Things To Do Now That Jerry Garcia Is Dead.
5. Top Ten Reasons Why France Should Continue Nuclear Testing
In The Pacific.
4. Top Ten Excuses For Being Late Returning From Lunch.
3. Top Ten Reasons Why People Submit Top Ten Lists.
2. Top Ten Reasons Not To Eliminate The Department Of Energy.
1. Howard Mortman's Top Ten Dating Tips.
TV SOUNBITE
"It appears that a kiss took place, but she was
the one making the delivery of that kiss."
-- Charles Slepian, Sen. Packwood's atty, on one of
Packwood's alleged instances of misconduct, CNN, 8/31
-30-
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Content-Type: text
--- Tuesday September 5, 1995 Vol. 8 No. 238
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS ---
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
3129 Mount Vernon Ave., Alexandria, VA 22305 703-518-4600
THE HOT BOX
SPOTLIGHT
HIT THE RHODE: Claiborne
I
GRAND OLD POCKETEERS
Pell (RI) this a.m. became
the 7th Dem Sen. nearly
You want stunning? Take
half the party's incumbents
I
a look at the latest report
up in '96 to just say no
I
I
of party fund-raising for
to another term. Likely
I
the 1st half of '95. The
matchup: Rep. Reed (D-02) I I GOP cmtes (RNC, NRSC, NRCC)
VS. Treas. Mayer (R).
outraised their Dem
counterparts (DNC, DSCC,
DCCC) by more than 2-1:
READ THE BOOK (#1,19)
I
$52M to $20M. All three
NEWSWEEK cover story on new
I
GOP cmtes are flush with
Powell autobio reveals tales of I cash while, a DNC surplus
Clinton VP offers & Sec/State
I
notwithstanding, the Dems
talks. As for a Powell agenda,
I
are carrying a net debt.
its "bland," but he's plainly
I
CASH FOLLOWS POWER: What
I
open to a pres. bid. Poll
I
a difference 2 years make.
advises the GOP primary route.
I
While GOP receipts are up
43% from the same period of
HOME'S WHERE THE HARM IS (#2,4)
'93, Dem money is up only
New poll finds Clinton with
1%. Credit much of that to
better CA numbers than Wilson.
the GOP's huge infusion of
soft money. (#10)
HEAR THEM ROAR (#18)
WA women's group urges Gov.
THE NEW KING OF CASH: AL
Lowry (D) to stay out of '96.
D'AMATO gets extra special
attention.
TIME reports on
MAKING THE RULES (#15)
2 lobbyists who say he uses
Rep. McKinney (D-GA 11)
his Banking chair to "twist
threatens a black Dem 3rd party
arms" for funds. (#11)
over GA's redistricting plan.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"It isn't a scandal waiting to happen.
It's a scandal right now."
-- Common Cause's Ann McBride, on Al D'Amato's many chairs:
Banking Cmte, NRSC and Dole campaign steering cmte, TIME, 9/11
(c) 1995 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition
extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or
affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
APN Founders: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Managing Editor: Ken Rudin
Deputy Managing Editor: Jessica Barrows
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: James Kaleigh, Benjamin White, Ron Eckstein
Editorial Assistants: Mike McGill, Doug Mintz
WHITE HOUSE '96: Powell (#1); Clinton (#2); Dole (#3);
California (#4); Jackson (#5); Wilson (#6);
Lugar (#7); Gingrich (#8); The Field (#9)
NATIONAL BRIEFINGS
FUND-RAISING: GOP runneth over; Dem total is debt. (#10)
HOTLINE ROLODEX: D'Amato's $-raising; Lisa Foster speaks. (#11)
COVER TO COVER: What's in the news-mags this week. (#12)
CAMPAIGNS OF '95: Baltimore Mayor: Upset brewing? (#13)
SENATE WATCH
COLORADO: Norton can't wait for Allard to come home. (#14)
ON THE HOUSE
GEORGIA: McKinney hints at 3rd party; Dem ready for Deal. (#15)
IL 02: Reynolds says he'll quit on 10/1. (#16)
50 STATE REPORT
CALIFORNIA: Rohrabacher listed as possible Boxer foe. (#17)
WASHINGTON: More pressure on Lowry to step down. (#18)
POLL UPDATE: NEWSWEEK: Powell for pres. numbers (#19)
TV MONITOR (#20)
CAN YOU HANDLE THE TRUTH? The HOTLINE has an immediate opening
for an editorial asst. Interested? FAX resumes to Ken Rudin at
(703) 518-8701. No phone calls, please.
???? OVERLOOKED ????
COLIN CAN MOVE PRODUCT
Colin Powell graces NEWSWEEK's cover this week. Next week, he is
expected to do so for TIME. Will he hit for the cycle again?
NEWSWEEK (9/11/95), U.S. NEWS (8/21/95),
TIME (7/5/95), NEWSWEEK (10/3/94).
WHITE HOUSE '96
*1 POWELL: NEWSWEEK SAYS HE LOOKS GOOD TO GO IN '96
In NEWSWEEK's cover story, Howard Fineman writes Colin
Powell's new book "reads a lot like an inspirational campaign
platform." While Powell "hedges a bit" about running in '96, he
looks "good to go," and if he goes, he will do it "to win."
Powell discloses in the book that in '88, Pres.-elect George Bush
wanted to name him CIA Dir. Powell turned down the post, and
Bush later named him chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In '92,
Dem "power broker" Vernon Jordan asked Powell if he would
consider being Clinton's running mate. Powell also discloses
that following the election, Jordan approached him about becoming
Sec/State, and in '94, Clinton spoke to Powell directly about
replacing Warren Christopher. The book, obtained by NEWSWEEK,
leaves "little doubt" that Powell wants to run, and that he is
"leaning toward" running as an independent. However, if he does
decide to run, the numbers in a new NEWSWEEK poll (see #19)
suggest Powell would be most successful as a GOPer. Powell comes
in last in a three-way race with Dole and Clinton, but beats
Clinton by ten points in a 2-way match-up as the GOP nominee. In
"My American Journey," Powell lays out a "bland set of
conservative principles that would allow him to run as either an
independent or a moderate Republican: low taxes, faith in free
enterprise, new scrutiny of entitlements. He makes it clear that
despite his emphasis on "traditional values," he is "no fan of
the religious right." The book is "no tell-all confessional,"
and there are no "hot buttons" pushed. Powell is "mute" on
abortion, immigration, capital punishment or welfare payments to
unwed teen mothers. But he does admit to having a "hot temper"
(9/11 issue).
WH REAX: WH Press Sec. Mike McCurry offered "tacit
endorsements" of Powell's version. McCurry: "It's no secret that
President Clinton has high regard for General Powell." But in
the end, McCurry said Al Gore was Clinton's "first and only
choice." McCurry "did not say directly" that Powell was sounded
out as a potential Sec/State, but did say Clinton and Christopher
had "candid discussions" about whether he would stay in the job
(S.F. CHRONICLE, 9/4). The WH "seemed surprised" and "a little
miffed" by Powell's revelations. McCurry: "Obviously these are
very serious and personal discussions. Apparently General Powell
has felt free to write about them. That's his right as an
American" (Ball, N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 9/4).
FORETASTE OF THE BLITZ TO COME: N.Y. TIMES' Apple writes
while they were once a mystery, it will soon be "difficult to
avoid" Powell's political views. He will be on the cover of TIME
next week. He will appear in a one-hour interview with ABC's
Barbara Walters 9/15 and will kick-off a 23-city int'l book tour
9/16. He will be on the cover of PARADE magazine 9/17. News
organizations "plan to cover" the tour like it was a political
campaign (9/4). He'll also be on NBC's "Tonight" with Jay Leno
9/26 (Carmody, W. POST).
POWELL-MANIA GETTING TO YOU? NEW YORKER's Malanowski offers
some potential career moves we may see for Powell in the near
future: 1) Signs a one-year deal with the N.Y. Yankees. Yankee
owner George Steinbrenner: "I'm not sure where we'll put him.
I'm not sure whether he is a righty or a lefty -- frankly, I'm
not even sure if he is a pitcher or a hitter. But I do know
this: our team has been yearning for a sense of moral
conviction." 2) Named CEO of MCA by Seagram's pres. Edward
Bronfman Jr. 3) Selected as the next Pope. John Cardinal
O'Connor: "I'm not sure if Mr. Powell is Catholic, or if he even
believes in God, but I do know that Catholics constantly yearn
for moral conviction, and Mr. Powell's got a lock on that. 4)
Marries JFK Jr. John-John, on reports that Powell is already
married, and is, in fact, a man: "I hear different. But,
frankly, I'm not sure if any of that should matter. All I know
is that I'm ready to settle down and get some moral conviction."
5) Named Special Counsel for Moral Conviction for Pres. Clinton
(9/11 issue).
FL FOLLOWERS: Florida Citizens for Colin Powell, a branch
of the DC-based Draft Powell cmte. has opened an office in
Broward Co. and has "begun efforts to build an organization."
Peter Gardner will head up the effort. Gardner: "What we are
trying to do is make people aware of the fact that he is going to
be a viable candidate in the Republican Party at least that's
our feeling" (Fiedler, MIAMI HERALD, 9/3). NPR's Molpus reported
on the grassroots movement in NC to draft Powell (9/5).
CHATTERBOXES: GOP analyst Jeff Bell: "He won't run. The
reason is the resilience of President Clinton. He doesn't
really differ with President Clinton that much on the issues, and
if Clinton is seen as a viable candidate, it's going to be very
hard for somebody who's seen as a moderate or liberal to get into
the race, to say a new candidate is needed" ("Crossfire," CNN,
9/4). Chris Matthews: "In the end, Colin Powell will run as a
Republican, if he runs at all. I think he is a moderate
Republican" ("GMA," ABC, 9/5).
*2 CLINTON: MORPHS INTO CAMPAIGN KID MODE
Pres. Clinton "unofficially opened" his CA campaign 9/4 in
speeches in which he denounced GOP stands on immigration and
affirm. action, called for an increase in the minimum wage and
said employers should share more profits with workers. Speaking
to "friendly" Dem crowds in Monterey and Alameda counties,
Clinton "assailed his conservative opponents" and accused them of
"dividing the nation for political advantage." Aides said
Clinton had Pete Wilson "in mind" when making his remarks. The
visit "looked distinctively like a campaign swing," but aides
"denied" that it was politics wrapped in "official guise." The
events were taped by the DNC for possible use in campaign ads.
The WH announced that Clinton will "hit the road" again in two
weeks for a five-city fund-raising tour to Phila., Miami, Denver,
S.F and L.A. The current swing marks Clinton's 19th trip to CA
as pres., a number "no other state, including his native
Arkansas, has approached" (McManus, L.A. TIMES, 9/5). Clinton
addressed crowds that personify "the twin aspects of his
California base: the new-wave, environmentally minded neighbors
of Monterey Bay and the old-guard, union loyalists of Alameda
County." Clinton's "sharpest remark" of the day came in Alameda:
"This idea, this crazy idea that somehow we can go into the 21st
century by weakening our middle class, by dividing our people
against each other, by convincing hard-working middle-class
people that the reason they don't have a good income is because
of welfare or immigration or affirmative action. That's not
what's holding your wage down" (Trounstine, S.J. MERCURY NEWS,
9/5). Clinton's CA speeches "set the stage for the up-coming
budget battle with Congress" (Benedetto, USA TODAY, 9/5).
Clinton "stepped squarely onto the turf of Mr. Wilson" (Mitchell,
N.Y. TIMES, 9/5). It "remains to be seen" whether or not Clinton
is "in tune with the angry streak of the California electorate
that applauds Gov. Wilson's tough stands." Clinton "could also
suffer" because he has presided over a "continuing shrinkage" of
defense spending in CA (Frisby, W.S. JOURNAL, 9/5). CBS' Braver:
"There was no escaping the campaign atmosphere" (9/4). CNN's
Blitzer: "The President made clear he is going to take on
the Republicans on the key budget issues, but first and foremost,
he wants a new political tolerance in Washington" (9/4).
HE'S GOTTA HAVE IT: S.F. CHRONICLE's Yoachum writes it was
"no accident" that Clinton spent Labor Day in CA. "With a
substantially weakened position in the Southern states that
Clinton carried in the last election, most analysts believe that
there is no way for the president to be re-elected without
winning California." CA Dem Party adviser Bob Mulholland:
"Clinton fits California like a surfer. From a Democratic
point of view, the San Francisco Bay Area is the biggest bloc of
votes in the state. The President is always looking at his
calendar to see when the next trip to California is."
Nevertheless, Dem sources have admitted that Wilson "would give
Clinton a close race" in CA, despite the governor's poor showing
in national polls (9/3). In an interview with the S.J. MERCURY
NEWS, Clinton questioned the proposed anti-affirm. acton CA Civil
Rights Initiative (CCRI) "in his most extensive comments to date
on the sharpest issue facing the state on which his re-election
hinges." Calling the '96 ballot initiative a "deftly worded
amendment," Clinton said, "I think it's important, in areas where
minorities have been systematically excluded or where women have
been systematically excluded, to make a conscious effort to give
qualified people a chance to serve." The president, who "stopped
short of taking a stand" on CCRI, also called for "modest
reductions of legal immigration and "substantial further cuts" in
illegal immigration. He added, however, that even illegal
immigrants should continue to receive medical care "to preserve
the health of the entire community." In addition, he predicted
that CA voters would re-elect him because he has delivered on his
campaign promises in the state (Trounstine, MERCURY NEWS, 9/4).
ON THE AGENDA: NEWSWEEK's "Periscope" reports WH officials
say Clinton is "seriously considering" declaring the oil-rich
Arctic Nat'l Wildlife Refuge a national monument. "The move
would keep the 1.5 million acre tract off-limits to drilling --
despite Republican efforts to tap its reserves. Aides say
Clinton is trying to bolster his new image as an
environmentalist" (9/11 issue). GOP analyst Bill Kristol:
"There is a divergence of interests between the Democrats in
Congress and President Clinton. The congressional Democrats want
to be staunch defenders of Medicare, they're willing to shut down
the government, they're willing to have a train wreck. Bill
Clinton is going to run for re-election as the president you need
to have to moderate and temper the Republican Congress. He has a
much greater interest in showing that, at the end of the day, he
can work with Bob Dole and Newt Gingrich" ("GMA," ABC, 9/5).
*3 DOLE: NOW HE'S THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE GUY
Bob Dole "took a deeper plunge into the culture wars" by
revving up his campaign with an "attack" on bilingual education,
affirm. action and new standards for teaching history. In a
Labor Day speech to the American Legion Convention in
Indianapolis, Dole said the nation's language, history and values
"are under attack from our government and from intellectual
elites who seem embarrassed by America" (Innerst, W. TIMES, 9/5).
Dole: "If we are to return this country to greatness, we must do
more than restore America's defenses. We must return as a
people to the original concept of what it means to be an
American." Under Dole's proposals, most bilingual education
programs would be eliminated and English would be made the nat'l
language (Shogan, L.A. TIMES, 9/5). "As for the proposed
national history standards, a set of voluntary guidelines for
teaching history in primary and secondary schools," Dole
suggested that current texts concentrate "on some of our worst
moments," such as McCarthyism and the Ku Klux Klan "without even
describing George Washington as the nation's first President."
The guidelines "have been widely criticized" since being released
last year, but "to the extent that Dole's attack was aimed at
President Clinton, it was blunted" by a statement from Education
Sec. Richard Riley "disavowing the standards," pointing out that
the Clinton admin. was not responsible for the study. Dole's
speech on values, combined with today's economic address in
Chicago, in which aides say he will "espouse pro-growth" policy,
"represent a double-barreled effort by the Kansan to provide his
candidacy with the ideological definition and emotional
inspiration critics contend it has lacked" (L.A. TIMES, 9/5).
RIGHTWARD HO: W. POST's Broder: "Dole reached out very
publicly to conservatives in his party who in the past have
criticized him for being too much a non-ideological deal-maker"
(9/5). CNN's Randall: "The values theme is a Dole appeal to GOP
conservative activists. They probably got plenty of what they
wanted, including the red meat issue of language" (9/4). GOP
analyst Bill Kristol: "He knows that issues like the issues that
he stressed today are potent ones and that Republican primary
voters will want their leader to at least articulate some views
on these issues. He did a pretty good job of articulating those
views" (NPR, 9/4).
BEEN THERE, DONE THAT: Dick Lugar, Pete Wilson and Pat
Buchanan's campaigns all laid claim to the English-as-official-
language idea, following Dole's speech. Wilson chair Craig
Fuller: "We welcome Bob Dole to the cause If Bob Dole,
during
his first term as Senate Majority Leader in 1986, had joined Pete
Wilson, it might be the law of the land by now, rather than a
quick soundbite on the evening news" (release, 9/5). Lugar: "I
appreciate Senator Dole's affirming it I say welcome aboard."
Buchanan: "Dole is really violating the copyright laws.
I
came out for this in 1992, and I said then that all federal
funding for bilingual education should be ended" (W. POST, 9/5).
HEADED BACK TO THE TARMAC? K.C. STAR's Kraske writes
appearances at recent candidate forums "make clear that Dole, the
presidential pack's front-runner, did not get there by making
speeches." Dole adviser David Keene: "Cicero he ain't. He's not
really giving people what they expect from a presidential
candidate, which is a sense of the world he wants to create and
where he wants to lead them if he is president." Keene "blamed
Dole's heavy Senate workload for a recent lack of focus" in his
rhetoric: "When he gets preoccupied, the edge is off and he gives
people a legislative briefing. They go away thinking, 'I
could've gotten that anywhere" (9/3).
GRANITE SOLID: In NH, Dole and his backers "have created an
aura of invincibility around his candidacy, an impression that he
is the most seasoned, the most battle tested, the most endorsed,
the most deserving and therefore the most likely to win the GOP
crown." But Dole still carries the image that he is the
"headmaster for the School of Professional Politicians, more a
creature of Washington's stubborn old ways than a developer of
fresh ideas." Dole is working to "counter his weaknesses" by
assembling an organization that "may be hard to slow down." In
NH, Dole may be the "1988 version of George Bush," as they are of
"the same World War II generation and Dole is inheriting much of
Bush's support in this state." By Columbus Day, Dole advisers
say they will have county and town campaign chairs in place in
all 13 regions of the state (Merida, W. POST, 9/4).
COMFORTABLE ON THE SENATE PERCH: ROLL CALL's Kondracke
writes that Dole "is sticking to his game plan: stay mostly in
Washington for the rest of 1995, get 'out of here' early next
year, and remain Senate Majority Leader until he's elected
President." Dole, who is "convinced that being Majority Leader
is his best possible perch for seeking the presidency": "Next
year, Ill miss a lot of votes. In January and February, I'll
have to turn things over to Trent Lott, Thad Cochran, Don Nickles
and others. For an important vote, I'll show up." Sen. Mitch
McConnell (R-KY), a Dole backer: "I don't think [Dole] will ever
give up the title. I think he'll keep it till the day he's
inaugurated." So far this year, "Dole has one of the Senate's
best attendance records, and Phil Gramm, one of the worst" (9/4).
L.A. TIMES' Nelson writes Dole "will necessarily be distracted"
from the campaign as he acts as GOP leader "in the continuing
battle over the budget, welfare reform and other contentious
issues" (9/2).
WILL FALTER: Chris Matthews, likening the '96 campaign to
the '52 race: "Bob Taft is represented here by Bob Dole, and I
think Colin Powell will be Ike." GOP analyst Bill Kristol: "I
don't think Bob Dole will make it, even though he is the front-
runner right now" ("GMA," ABC, 9/5).
*4 CALIFORNIA: PETE HAS NET NEGATIVE RATING, BILL HAS NET POS.
A Field Poll, conducted 8/24-31, surveyed 601 CA adults;
margin of error +/- 4% (Field release, 9/5).
CLINTON JOB
NOW 5/95
WILSON JOB
NOW
5/95
Very good/good
36%
37%
Very good/good
27%
28%
Fair
33
38
Fair
28
34
Poor/very poor
27
24
Poor/very poor 40 37
*5 JACKSON: LABOR CANDIDATES SAY THEY ARE CLINTON GUYS
In a "Meet the Press" joint appearance, AFL-CIO interim
pres. Tom Donahue and SEIU pres./Donahue challenger John Sweeney
both said they back Pres. Clinton for re-election. Donahue: "I'd
urge Jesse not to run. I'd urge him not to involve himself in
this. A candidacy by Jackson, a challenge to Clinton, will be
a divisive, will have a divisive effect." Sweeny agreed Jackson
should not run: "We would consider all the candidates who are in
the race for President. But we firmly believe that President
Clinton has done a great job as President and deserves our
support." Donahue was asked why he supports Clinton, since the
president supports NAFTA and failed to achieve health-care
reform: "I'd tell [my members] to go out and work for him for the
reasons that are good for us, the things that he's done that have
helped American workers, what he's done principally in terms of
the economy and for the efforts he made. Clinton is the best
hope that workers in this country have currently on the scene"
(9/3). Jackson, addressing a service outside of Grant's Tomb in
NYC: "All options are open. We will not sit idly by and watch
matters of economic justice, job security and urban policy be
abandoned without great resistance." He accused Dems and GOPers
of being "in bed" with corporate America: "The Republicans and
Democrats are eating from the same trough. They are not
gridlocked -- they are hiplocked." Jackson: "The Democrats have
a choice: To either address real needs or become extinct" (N.Y.
POST, 9/4).
*6 WILSON: DEFENDS COPS, SAYS FUHRMAN IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE
Home after a week of his inaugural campaign-tour kickoff,
where he talked illegal immigration, affirm. action and crime,
Pete Wilson cited polls that he said showed him gaining momentum:
"Something that seems to make sense to Californians is making
sense in Maine and New Hampshire and Massachusetts and Florida.
The message is resonating." He met with law enforcement
officers in L.A., where "he defended police in light of racist
remarks" made by O.J. prosecution witness Mark Fuhrman: "To
suggest, in any way, that the intolerable racial bigotry
displayed by Fuhrman represents the proud men and women of the
Los Angeles Police Department is absurd. We've seen similar
efforts across the country to try to twist isolated cases of
misconduct into a broad indictment of law enforcement. We can't
tolerate bad cops. But it makes my stomach turn to see some
lawyer from the ACLU making the rounds on the TV talk shows
exploiting cases like this to undermine faith in American law
enforcement" (Chance, SACRAMENTO BEE, 9/2). Wilson was endorsed
by the L.A. Police Protective League, the CA Police Chiefs Assn,
CA State Sheriffs Assn, CA State Assn of L.A. Deputy Sheriffs,
Women Prosecutors of CA, and several victims rights groups
(Orlov, L.A. DAILY NEWS, 9/2). L.A. TIMES' Lesher writes the
"tough language and macho bravado" Wilson displayed during his
kickoff tour "underscored a theme the governor hopes will pave
his way to victory next year" (9/1).
ROAD MAP: L.A. TIMES' Skelton envisions Wilson's road to
the WH going through NH, AZ, CO, MA, NY, FL and -- "if he's still
running" -- CA. Of course, IA is a "mandatory pit stop," and OR
is "inviting." But these above states are where Wilson "really
intends to pour on the fuel. His goal is to exceed expectations"
in NH, and "win the rest." But fund-raising has been
"disappointing"; one Wilson adviser predicts a year-end gross of
only $12-16M, instead of the once-planned $20M (9/4).
REVIEWS KEEP COMING IN: Providence JOURNAL-BULLETIN's
Terzian, stating the N.Y. Times and W. Post coverage of Wilson's
announcement "hovered near hysteria," writes, "no other aspirant
has been welcomed with quite the frenzy and derision, the moral
indignation and censure in the press, that has greeted Pete
Wilson." Wilson "has a remarkable ability to anticipate issues,
to place himself a few steps ahead of public opinion, positioning
himself to maximum advantage. Call it opportunism or flexibility
or whatever, it works for Pete Wilson as it worked for Bill
Clinton" (9/4). SACRAMENTO BEE's Walters writes the "more
troubling aspect" of Wilson's campaign "is that he is abandoning
California at a time when strong political leadership is needed
-- and in the aftermath of his absolutely unequivocal promise
to serve an entire second term How, one wonders, can he make
any trustworthy promises about what he would do as president
One is left with the conclusion that this campaign is nothing
more than Wilson's midlife ego-trip" (9/3). Bob Novak, asked if
Wilson was viable: "Not yet. He is trying to be the tough
guy. He comes over as less of a principled conservative than as
just unpleasant. I really don't understand the rationale for
his campaign." Mark Shields said Wilson's announcement speech
"sounded like a recruitment drive for the Montana Militia." GOP
analyst Ed Rollins: "I don't think this particular speech is
going to convince people that he's a leader." Margaret Carlson:
"He's just unpleasant. He's neck and neck with [Phil] Gramm in
the charmless school." Al Hunt, on Wilson's use of the Statue of
Liberty: "If David Duke runs now, he can now announce from the
Martin Luther King Center. They say he's underestimated.
Well, there's a reason he's underestimated because his whole
public career has been mediocre" ("Capital Gang," CNN, 9/2).
LAMAR SPAT: Regarding the "cat fight" between Wilson and
Alexander over Alexander's "attack ad" in NH, BOSTON GLOBE's
Oliphant compares the two "outsiders." The record of Alexander's
"changing views is complete and shows a genuine evolution"
more than an "opportunistic flip-flop," like Wilson. Alexander's
ad "hits home in its portrayal of an opponent who hides from his
past and has trouble explaining his present. Alexander has a
much stronger claim to be the former governor with a less
questionable past and a more plausible present" (9/3).
*7 LUGAR: WON'T TAKE RICHARD NIXON'S PRIMARY ADVICE
Campaigning in NH, Dick Lugar said he would "run as a
moderate in the GOP primary" and would ignore Richard Nixon's
advice to "run as far to the right as possible" during the
primary campaign. Lugar said his opponents are competing
"futilely" for the title of "most conservative" (Elrick, CONCORD
MONITOR, 9/2). A Louisville COURIER-JOURNAL editorial, under
header, "Listen to Lugar," states Lugar's campaign "isn't getting
the attention it deserves, and Republican voters are the big
losers. Unlike most of his GOP opponents [Lugar does not]
bray and bellow about the threats of immigration or affirmative
action." He does not "attempt to exploit 'wedge' issues" (9/1).
CHICAGO TRIBUNE's Hardy writes voters should "take a look" at
Lugar and Arlen Specter "before they completely fade from
contention." Specter and Lugar's chances of getting the
nomination are, respectively, "slim and none." It is "doubtful"
that either candidate will still be in the race as of the 3/96 IL
primary. The problem for the two is that they try to appeal to a
"broad spectrum" of voters and do not run "hard to the right"
like the rest of the GOP field (9/3).
LET'S GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES, SHALL WE? U.S. NEWS'
"Washington Whispers" reports IN politicians are "plotting how to
divide the electoral spoils next November." Lugar is expected to
be a "shoo-in" for Sec/State should a GOPer win the WH. And if
Lugar leaves the Senate, the reigning IN gov. would choose his
replacement. "That makes" the '96 IN Gov. race "all the more
critical." If the Dems win, outgoing Gov. Evan Bayh (D), who is
term limited, would probably be named to the vacancy. But if a
GOPer wins, Rep. Dan Burton (R-06), a "seven-term conservative
from Indianapolis, is considered the top candidate to succeed
Lugar" (9/11 issue).
*8 GINGRICH: SAYS POWELL CANDIDACY WILL IMPACT HIS DECISION
Speaker Newt Gingrich said his decision to run for pres.
"hinges in part" on what Colin Powell decides to do: "Powell's
decision will have a big impact. He clearly is one of the people
who has an ability, nationwide, to get an organization overnight.
If he were to decide to run in November, that would clearly
make it less likely I would run." Gingrich said Powell's
interest in running hasn't kept anyone else from joining the
race: "All I can tell you is that if anything, the race seems to
be even more open than it was two months ago, so I'm not sure
that I need to do anything except go back and try to be a very
effective speaker." Gingrich has said in the past he will make a
decision by the end of the year (Hostetler, AP/W. TIMES, 9/5).
Analyst Charlie Cook: "I don't think there's any realistic chance
that Gingrich is going to run. He's trying to sell some
books" ("Inside Politics," CNN, 9/4).
*9 THE FIELD: GRAMM WOULD RETURN GAY MONEY, TOO
GRAMM: Phil Gramm, on "Brinkley," commented on the action
on Bosnia: "I don't object to the use of air power to suppress
Serb military action. But I think in the end there is only one
solution to this problem, and that is to lift the arms embargo,
let the Bosnians defend themselves." Gramm, asked about a Senate
vote to override a Clinton veto and end the arms embargo: "If the
President can tell us that he has a policy that will ultimately
lead to the arms embargo being lifted, I would be willing to
listen to that. I don't think there's a desire here to try to
run over the President." Gramm, asked by Sam Donaldson if he
would accept a contribution from the Log Cabin Republicans, a gay
group: "The Log Cabin Republicans didn't make the donation to me,
and no, I wouldn't take it. But I'd take a contribution from
you, Sam, as you suggested earlier" (ABC, 9/3).
SPECTER: Arlen Specter, on "Face the Nation," said he may
resort to subpoenaing federal agents and FBI Dir. Louis Freeh to
compel them to appear before Senate hearings investigating Ruby
Ridge. Specter: "I will push it to the limit. I will follow the
facts wherever they lead. Will I subpoena the agents? I hope
they'll come voluntarily, but if they don't, they'll be
subpoenaed. I expect that Director Freeh to come without a
subpoena but we're going to talk to everybody, including the
Attorney General." Asked if he would grant anyone immunity to
get them to talk, Specter responded, "I think it's premature but
we may get to that." Specter did not comment when asked if he
believed there was a "major cover-up" by the FBI and DoJ of Ruby
Ridge (CBS, 9/3).
BUCHANAN: In a W.S. JOURNAL op-ed entitled, "An American
Economy for Americans," Pat Buchanan lays out his economic plan
"that can make America the enterprise zone of the industrial
world": "The opportunity is at hand to jettison a New World Order
Americans have rejected in their hearts, to build a new coalition
of supply-siders and economic nationalists. This plan marries
the growth ideas of Ronald Reagan to the 'American System'
devised by Hamilton and Washington, pursued by Jefferson and
Lincoln, perfected by Theodore Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge.
That system converted America from a seaboard country of farmers
into the mightiest industrial power on earth." Buchanan's plan
entails a combination of imposing a flat tax on both families and
corporations, simplification and some changes of the tax code,
and imposing a tariff on Japanese, Chinese and Third World
imported goods (9/5). NEWSWEEK's "Periscope" reports Buchanan
has decided not to run as an indie should he not be GOP nominee
because "it would be too expensive. To match the $60 million the
majority party candidates net in federal funds for the general
election, Buchanan would need $80 million, since it costs money
to make money. One solution, a running mate with deep pockets.
But a top campaign official vetoed the idea." The aide said, "If
you're running as a populist, you can't put a billionaire on your
ticket" (9/11 issue). Buchanan, on the Gramm campaign's pleasure
over his fundraising troubles: "Phil Gramm has said the best
friend a politician has is ready cash. Phil Gramm doesn't
understand America. You can't buy Iowa. You can't buy New
Hampshire. We're going to show that big money and being
controlled and being a bellhop of Wall Street is not the way to
win the Republican nomination" ("IP," CNN, 9/4).
NATIONAL BRIEFING
*10 FUND-RAISING: GOP'S COFFERS RUNNETH OVER; DEM TOTAL IS DEBT
During the first half of '95, GOP cmtes outraised their Dem
counterparts by more than 2-1. While GOP cmtes increased
receipts by 43% over the same period of '93, Dem cmtes increased
receipts by only 1%. PAC Money: GOP raised $2.5M; Dems raised
$3.6M. Soft Money: GOP $16.8M; Dems $10.8M. (In the first half
of '93, GOP cmtes raised $6.5M in soft money, Dems $8.6M.)
PARTY CMTES
RECEIPTS
CASH-ON-HAND
DEBT
RNC
24,764,017
2,773,621
0
NRSC
13,838,494
4,212,620
0
NRCC
13,403,740
2,426,565
1,951,256
TOTAL GOP
52,006,251
9,412,806
1,951,256
DNC
11,292,660
1,700,132
783,810
DSCC
5,266,778
70,190
176,400
DCCC
3,861,988
580,022
1,748,631
TOTAL DEM
20,421,426
2,350,344
2,708,841
CANDIDATE RECEIPTS (in millions) INDIVIDUALS
PACs
1995 GOP incumbents (232)
14.2 (50%)
13.3 (47%)
1993 GOP incumbents (176)
6.7 (52%)
5.3 (41%)
1995 Dem incumbents (202)
7.5 (43%)
8.4 (48%)
1993 Dem incumbents (258)
7.8 (37%)
11.7 (55%)
1995 GOP froshies (73)
5.4 (52%)
4.4 (42%)
1993 GOP froshies (47)
2.2 (67%)
1.0 (30%)
1995 Dem froshies (15)
.5 (42%)
.5 (42%)
1993 Dem froshies (63)
1.6 (34%)
2.7 (57%)
(NOTE: The FEC includes newly-elected "Members" from Guam
and the Virgin Islands.)
*11 HOTLINE ROLODEX: D'AMATO'S $-RAISING; LISA FOSTER SPEAKS
TIME's Pooley profiles NRSC Chair Al D'Amato (R-NY) as "the
reigning king of Washington's money game -- the lawmaker who
symbolizes what most people can't stand about the process."
D'Amato's three roles -- at the NRSC, as Senate Banking Chair and
as chair of Bob Dole's campaign steering cmte -- "give him fund-
raising clout that is unrivaled," making him "one of the most
powerful politicians in Washington." D'Amato, with plans to
deregulate the banking industry, "has leveraged his Banking
Committee power" to raise money. Common Cause Pres. Ann McBride:
"When the Banking chairman comes calling as the party's chief
fund raiser and comes on in a particularly aggressive way, it
isn't a scandal waiting to happen. It's a scandal right now."
Two lobbyists "have told TIME that D'Amato staff members
solicited contributions from them this year during conversations
about pending legislation." DSCC Exec. Dir. Don Foley, on
D'Amato: "He links money to legislation like nobody else in
town." D'Amato called such charges "absolute hogwash": "I am not
a bully. I have never twisted arms. Given the number of
people that we meet, the fact that there are political axes to
grind, that kind of thing will be said from time to time. But
there is no linkage" (9/11 issue). NEW YORKER's Blumenthal
examines D'Amato's critical role for Dole in NY: "He is not
simply useful to Dole; as the putative deliverer of New York's
convention delegates, he is necessary" (9/11).
LISA FOSTER: In her first interview since the suicide of
her husband, Lisa Foster tells NEW YORKER's Peter Boyer, "I never
thought he'd been murdered. The worst possible thing had
happened, but it was like everything came together." More Lisa:
"He probably thought we'd be well taken care of and maybe we'd be
better off, financially, if he were dead, because if he went to a
psychiatrist he'd never have another job." It wasn't until his
death, that she realized he had clinical depression. As the
conspiracy stories grew, Lisa said that, at first she, too,
harbored some doubts about Vince's death -- until she conducted
her own investigation. Boyer: "But her certainty about Vince is
a hard comfort, dearly purchased. To believe completely in him,
she says, she had to learn to believe in the despair that killed
him." In his final weeks, Vince had decided to quit his WH job,
which had caused him to lose sleep and appetite. Lisa said the
famous note from Vince, torn into 27 pieces, "was not a suicide
note," but "a kind of defense brief" for a man who took so
personally the Clinton admin.'s early blunders. Lisa said Vince
may have anticipated testifying before Congress about Travelgate
and that after he wrote the note, he said, "I haven't resigned
yet. I've just written my opening argument." Also, Lisa "has
satisfied herself that Whitewater was not among Vince's
anxieties" (9/11 issue).
MITCHELL MAY BALK: Ex-Sen. Maj. Leader George Mitchell (D-
ME), who retired in '94, "may be losing interest" in the post of
baseball commissioner. Mitchell is "finding plenty to do" with
his DC-NYC law practice and his role as Pres. Clinton's special
envoy to Ireland (Mashek, BOSTON GLOBE, 9/2).
A REAL HILL BABE: Frosh Rep. Enid Greene Waldholtz (R-UT)
gave birth to a daughter, Elizabeth Greene Waldholtz (R), on
8/31, following 27 hours of induced labor. Mama Waldholtz is the
2nd Member of Congress to have a baby in office. The first:
then-Rep. Yvonne Brathwaite Burke (D-CA), who later gave up her
seat in an unsuccessful primary bid for AG in '78.
FALSE ALARM (THANK GOD!): America drew a collective sigh of
relief in discovering that the N.Y. POST's screamer on 9/1 was
not so. JFK Jr. is not engaged to be married (see HOTLINE 9/1).
*12 COVER TO COVER
NEWSWEEK: Photo: Colin Powell. Text: "The Powell Campaign"
(9/11 issue).
U.S. NEWS: "Sex and Violence on TV: A Guide for the Wary
Viewer" (9/11 issue).
TIME: "Bringing the Serbs to Heel" (9/11 issue).
BUSINESS WEEK: "The Race for Bigness" (9/11 issue).
THE NEW REPUBLIC: "In Defense of Smoking: The Cultural,
Spiritual, & Historical Need to Light Up" (9/18 & 25 issue).
CAMPAIGNS OF '95
*13 BALTIMORE MAYOR: A WEEK TO GO, AN UPSET IS POSSIBLE
With one week to go before the 9/12 primary, Mayor Kurt
Schmoke's (D) lead over City Council Pres. Mary Pat Clarke (D) is
in single digits and may be narrowing. Clarke "was supposed to
be down and out by now far down in the polls and flat out of
money." And while Schmoke "still is favored," Clarke's
"tenacious opposition" is causing observers to be "talking openly
about the possibility of an upset." If that happened, it would
be the first time an incumbent black mayor in a major U.S. city
with a majority black population is defeated by a white opponent.
Univ./WI's Marc Levine said, "At this point, it hinges largely on
turnout and the extent to which there is a significant
element in the black community that is ready to desert."
Schmoke, backed by MD Gov. Parris Glendening (D), several unions
and a "powerful alliance of black ministers," has focused on his
accomplishments in his two terms. But Clarke's "relentless
attacks and her insistence that Baltimore is deteriorating" have
put him "on the defensive" and made him appear "more embattled
than entrenched." She has been endorsed by the Balto. SUN and
ex-Gov. Wm. Donald Schaefer (D), an ex-mayor and longtime Schmoke
antagonist. Clarke treas. Ronald Ellison: "You can feel it in
the air -- there's an energy, a surge." But the polls have
"galvanized" Schmoke's supporters as well. State Sen. Larry
Young (D): "For those who have been lackadaisical, who have taken
the mayor's re-election for granted, it's one more major wake-up
call" (Daemmrich/Siegel, Balto. SUN, 9/5).
BIG MO: SUN's Rascovar notes that Clarke is "on a roll.
Her biggest allies are discontent among Baltimore City voters and
the difficulty any incumbent has running for a third term.
Momentum seems to be on her side. A big newspaper endorsement.
Unexpected money pouring in. High-visibility crime stories
blaring over television night after night by stations eager to
boost their ratings at any cost. One episode after another
pointing to more disarray and incompetence in the city schools.
All this despite one of the most superficial campaigns
imaginable. One Clarke TV ad has her telling supporters that
she's running for mayor 'because I live here." The city's broke
and it needs fixing. That's about as deep as the Clarke
candidacy goes in trying to address city problems." But "it
seems to be working." The "ABS crowd" -- Anybody But Schmoke --
is "rallying around her." Schmoke has been in office eight years
"and the city's woes are multiplying, not diminishing." However,
no matter who wins, "the victor is likely to discover it's a
dreadful time to be mayor of a declining urban city. The winner
on September 12 could wind up as the loser" (9/3). Other Dem:
water taxi captain Kelley Brohawn, who says, "I'm as common as
dirt." Asked about his lack of experience, Brohawn said "that he
takes passengers out into the harbor every day and 'I've always
brought them back in good shape" (Mathews, SUN, 9/2).
LOU WOULD BE PROUD: Sign seen at Camden Yards: "Cal for
Mayor."
SENATE WATCH
*14 COLORADO: NORTON CAN'T WAIT FOR ALLARD TO COME HOME
AG Gale Norton (R) recently "needled" Rep. Wayne Allard (R-
04) over his failure to officially declare his candidacy for the
seat of retiring Sen. Hank Brown (R). Norton challenged Allard
to come out of his "chameleon-like fund-raising cover" and enter
the race in CO, rather than in Omaha, NE, where he recently
attended a $500-a-plate fund-raiser; Norton has already
announced. Allard spokesperson Sean Conway "dismissed Norton's
comments as desperate": "I think what is happening is you're
seeing a little bit of panic in the Gale Norton for Senate
campaign." Norton noted that the congressman also held a 6/95
fund-raiser in DC, where he asked donors to contribute to his
"re-election bid": "Colorado voters above all expect their
elected officials to be forthright, state their intentions
directly and avoid political game-playing." Conway responded,
"In all fund-raising letters, he's made it clear the money will
either be used in a re-election race or a race for the U.S.
Senate. He has said he'll make a decision by early fall. We're
fast approaching that magic date" (Sanko, ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS,
9/1). Other possible GOPers: atty Bill Eggert, state Sen.
Charlie Duke, ex-Sec/State Mary Estill Buchanan. Announced Dem:
Jerry Brown's CO campaign mgr Phil Perington. Other possible
Dems: ex-Sen. Gary Hart, Gov. Roy Romer, state Sen. Paul
Weissmann, Denver atty Tom Strickland, Denver councilmember
Ramona Martinez and Univ. of CO Law School Dean Gene Nichol.
ON THE HOUSE
*15 GEORGIA: MCKINNEY HINTS AT 3RD PARTY; DEM READY FOR DEAL
Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-11) said black Dems may form a
third party, based on Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition, if the
GA General Assembly supports a state Senate plan that retains
only one of three majority-black CDs. At a press conference
called by McKinney, her father state Rep. Billy McKinney (D) and
state Rep. Tyrone Brooks (D), the lawmakers said that the GA
Senate plan would "leave the state's black Democrats searching
for a party." A special legislative session resumes on 9/5 with
negotiators trying to resolve differences between the Senate plan
and the House map, which would preserve two black CDs; McKinney
supports that plan. She said that the Senate proposal "uses
traditional Democratic, black voters as spare parts to bolster
the prospects of certain favorite sons who are white Democrats."
McKinney said if the Senate version is approved, she would
canvass her district, urging constituents not to "push the
button" for Dems favored by the GA legislature (Manuel,
COX/ATLANTA CONSTITUTION, 9/4).
SPEAKER TO SPEAKER: Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-06) said he
supports the state House plan, drawn by GA House Speaker Tom
Murphy (D), even though it puts him in the same CD with frosh
Rep. Bob Barr (R-07). He criticized Murphy, however, calling his
attempts to hurt Barr "an example of the old-time power
politics." Gingrich said the state Senate plan is even worse,
and would be "very, very disadvantageous" to frosh Rep. Charlie
Norwood (R-10) and "may hurt two others because it increases the
number of black Democratic voters in those districts" (Alexander,
COX/ATLANTA CONSTITUTION, 9/5).
NEW DEAL: Atlanta investment banker Lewis Massey (D), an
ex-aide to LG Pierre Howard (D), may be the "most talked about,
least seen individual in the congressional redistricting
sweepstakes." He is "widely believed" to want the 9th CD seat
currently held by Rep. Nathan Deal (R), a recent convert to the
GOP. According to "speculation," the state Senate, acting on
Howard's wishes, is "pressing for a 9th District more favorable
to Massey." State Senate Maj. Leader Sonny Perdue (D): "It
becomes a complicating factor for sure, certainly to the extent
that some people's own desires start clouding some of the
overarching statewide interests." No Assembly members have
announced plans to run for Congress in '96, but "at least" six
acknowledged that they are thinking about it, and the eventual
shape of the CDs "will go a long way" in helping the legislators
make their decisions. Massey "has not made up his mind" about a
run: "Obviously, I can't decide until the lines are finished."
Metro Atlanta state Sen. Ron Slotin (D) said he would "seriously
consider" running in an urban 11th CD, now represented by
McKinney. As drawn by the Senate, the district "might create a
friendly niche for a white Democratic candidate" (Sherman/
Alexander, COX/CONSTITUTION, 9/5).
*16 IL 02: REYNOLDS SAYS HE'LL QUIT ON 10/1
Rep. Mel Reynolds (D), appearing on CNN's "Larry King Live,"
said he would resign from Congress effective 10/1. The date of
the resignation means that a special election to choose his
successor will be held by early 2/96. He used the TV time to
"lash out at those he blamed for his downfall: accuser Beverly
Heard, law enforcement and the media" (Hardy/Becker, CHICAGO
TRIBUNE, 9/2). Throughout the show, Reynolds maintained his
innocence, despite his conviction on sexual assault and other
charges: "I made a very stupid immature mistake. I allowed
myself to get into conversations with someone, another adult at
the time, just under an adult at the time I should say." Asked
if he had had sexual relations with a minor, Reynolds responded,
"Absolutely not." Reynolds appeared on the show with his wife,
Marisol, who was asked how she was dealing with the scandal. She
responded, "This one person not only destroyed my husband, but
destroyed my kids and my possible future. It hurts." Asked
about the phone calls between her husband and Heard, she said,
"They are adults and that's a moral issue. What happens between
our marriage is between us, our marriage, and not the public to
know. It would hurt any wife" (9/1). Since his conviction,
Reynolds has been under "intense pressure to resign and remove
himself as an embarrassment to his party and the city that will
host next year's Democratic National Convention." He responded
by attacking his Dem colleagues on "LKL," singling out House Min.
Leader Richard Gephardt, Min. Whip David Bonior and Rep. Pat
Schroeder (D-CO) (Walsh, W. POST, 9/2).
KEEPING UP: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES' Neal, quoting Dem sources,
writes that IL Senate Min. Leader Emil Jones (D) has decided to
seek Reynolds' seat and will run in the special election, with an
official declaration coming later this month. '95 Chicago Dem
mayoral cand. Joseph Gardner will back Jones; Gardner was IL
Rainbow Coalition chair and is a "close ally" of Jesse Jackson,
whose son, Jesse Jr., is also running for the seat. Jones ran
once before in the 2nd CD, losing to then-Rep. Gus Savage (D) in
the '88 Dem primary. Other Dems: state Sen. Alice Palmer, state
Rep. Monique Davis. Jackson Jr. and Palmer were interviewed on
CNN's "Inside Politics" on 9/1.
50 STATE REPORT
*17 CALIFORNIA: ROHRABACHER LISTED AS POSSIBLE BOXER FOE
U.S. NEWS' "Washington Whispers" reports Rep. Dana
Rohrabacher (R-45) is a potential opponent of Sen. Barbara Boxer
(D), whose seat is considered "one of the most vulnerable" in
'98. "The outspoken conservative, surfer and self-proclaimed
'truth teller' from Huntington Beach has gained high visibility
in recent weeks with biting attacks on President Clinton's China
policy. Only one thing is holding him back from taking on Boxer:
his close friendship with another likely candidate," Rep. Chris
Cox (R-47). "If Cox passes, count Rohrabacher in" (9/11 issue).
Other possible GOPers: Rep. David Dreier (R-28), ex-Reps. Tom
Campbell & Michael Huffington, and Arianna Huffington.
BOXER APPROVAL: Field Poll, conducted 8/24-31, surveyed 601
CA adults; margin of error +/-4% (release, 9/5). Tested: Sens.
Boxer and Dianne Feinstein (D).
BOXER
NOW 5/95
FEINSTEIN JOB
NOW 5/95
Very good/good
30%
27%
Very good/good
38%
31%
Fair
29
35
Fair
29 32
Poor/very poor 23 25
Poor/very poor
21
29
*18 WASHINGTON: MORE PRESSURE ON LOWRY TO STEP DOWN
The leadership of the WA State Women's Political Caucus
(WSWPC), "considered among the most influential women's political
organizations in the state," has "urged" Gov. Mike Lowry (D) not
to seek re-election in '96. Four WSWPC board members met with
Lowry and his staff dir. Lorraine Hine on 9/1 and told Lowry he
"has disqualified himself from representing the women of the
state of Washington." Lowry had been accused by ex-press aide
Susanne Albright of sexual harassment for "hugging and patting
her and telling jokes." An investigation found Lowry's conduct
"did not meet the legal definition of sexual harassment but did
offend Albright." Lowry agreed to pay Albright $97,500 in return
for her agreement not to sue him. He has not admitted any
wrongdoing, but has apologized. WSWPC Pres. Nancyhelen Fischer,
"a longtime Lowry supporter": "What our board saw was a pattern
of behavior over the years. The perception of our membership and
of other women is that Mike is intrusive." In 7/95, the WA
chapter of NOW voted not to support Lowry's re-election bid.
Lowry said it is "too early to be discussing the 1996 election"
(Paulson, SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER, 9/2). Announced GOPers:
ex-state Sen. Ellen Craswell, state Sen. Pam Roach, '94 Slade
Gorton campaign chair Jim Waldo and King Co. prosecutor Norm
Maleng. Possible GOPers: businesswoman Nona Brazier, state House
Maj. Leader Dale Foreman, state Senate GOP Leader Dan McDonald,
state Sen. Anne Anderson and Pierce Co. Exec. Doug Sutherland.
Possible Dems: AG Christine Gregoire, ex-Rep. Jay Inslee, King
Co. Exec. Gary Locke, state Senate Budget Chair Nita Rinehart,
Insurance Commis. Deborah Senn, Seattle Mayor Norm Rice and WA
Auditor Brian Sontag.
POLL UPDATE
*19 NEWSWEEK: POWELL WINS BUT ONLY INSIDE THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM
583 registered voters surveyed 8/30-31, margin of error +/-5%
(release 9/1).
POWELL AS INDEPENDENT NOW 10/94
Clinton
36%
34%
Dole
33
28
Powell
21
30
Undec.
10
8
POWELL AS GOP NOMINEE NOW 10/94
Powell
51%
54%
Clinton
41
39
Undec.
8
7
POWELL AS DOLE'S VP W/ PEROT IN THE RACE AS AN INDY
Dole/Powell
43%
Clinton/Gore
38
Perot
14
Undec.
5
POWELL AS VP W/OUT PEROT IN THE RACE
Dole/Powell
51%
Clinton/Gore
44
Undec.
5
GENERAL ELECTION W/OUT POWELL: NOW
6/95
12/94
Clinton
47%
40%
38%
Dole
45
49
48
WOULD POWELL'S LONG-TIME SERVICE IN THE PENTAGON AND IN THE WHITE
HOUSE MAKE IT UNLIKELY THAT HE WOULD MAKE THE KIND OF CHANGES IN
GOV'T THAT THE COUNTRY NEEDS?
No
49%
Yes, unlikely to make changes
25
DK
26
IF POWELL BECOMES A CANDIDATE, HOW SERIOUSLY WOULD YOU TAKE
CRITICISM LEVELLED AT HIM FOR PAST U.S. MILITARY POLICIES SUCH AS
HOW THE WAR IN IRAQ ENDED AND THE MISSION IN SOMALIA?
Very seriously
22%
Somewhat seriously
32
Not too seriously
23
Not at all seriously
15
TV MONITOR
*20 THIS MORNING: ABC's "GMA" hosted S.F. EXAMINER's Chris
Matthews and GOP analyst Bill Kristol. NBC's "Today" hosted Tim
Russert and Asst. Sec/State Richard Holbrooke. "FOX Morning News"
hosted Jesse Jackson, ex-Rep. Tim Penny (D-MN), AFL-CIO Sec/Treas.
Barbara Easterling, United Mine Workers Pres. Richard Trumka, GOP
consultant Frank Donatelli, Dem consultant Bruce Freed and ROLL
CALL's Susan Glasser.
TODAY: NPR's "Talk of the Nation" second hour (3-4 p.m. EDT)
focuses on welfare reform with Sens. Tom Harkin (D-IA) & John
Ashcroft (R-MO) and Rep. Jim Talent (R-MO).
TONIGHT: CNBC's "Russert" hosts Gramm manager Charlie Black.
CNBC's "Equal Time" hosts Labor Sec. Robert Reich.
PLAY OF THE WEEK: CNN's Schneider, on the NATO air strikes
in Bosnia: "The Allied military action is paying off quite nicely
for President Clinton politically. The air strikes are
President Clinton's policy. He's calling the shots. He has
succeeded in restoring credibility to NATO, to the UN, and to his
own administration. The Serbs haven't cried 'Uncle' yet, but
Bob Dole has" ("Inside Politics," CNN, 9/1).
LAUGHS: Mark Russell, on Bob Dole's overtures to the
religious right: "He has not ruled out carrying a cross through
the streets of Des Moines, providing Pat Buchanan loans him his"
("IP Weekend," CNN, 9/2). Jay Leno: "I had a terrible nightmare
last night. I dreamt that I was in a car being driven by Rodney
King. We got pulled over by Mark Fuhrman. He beat us both
unconscious. And when we came to, Bob Packwood was giving us
mouth-to-mouth recessitation" ("Tonight Show," NBC, 9/4).
TOP TEN SIGNS YOUR PICNIC SUCKS
10. Whenever there's the slightest breeze, Peter McNeeley falls
ass-first into the potato salad.
9. The Blanket you're sitting on is from Heidi Fleiss' place.
8. The "caraway seeds" in the cole slaw look suspiciously like
deer ticks.
7. Your picnic companion is inflatable.
6. That red dog from the beer commercials gets drunk and tries
to mate with your roast chicken.
5. Your original campfire has now consumed 5,000 acres.
4. You have to spend all day consoling a weeping Larry
Fortensky.
3. Instead of mayonnaise, elderly aunt has used Vicks' Vap-O-Rub
on sandwiches.
2. In mix-up, your picnic chest contains Larry Hagman's liver.
1. O.J. keeps "accidentally" hitting people with lawn darts
("Late Show, CBS, 9/4).
TV SOUNDBITE
"If David Duke runs now, he can now announce
from the Martin Luther King Center."
-- Al Hunt, on Wilson's use of the Statue of Liberty,
"Capital Gang," CNN, 9/2
-30-
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CREATION DATE/TIME:11-SEP-1995 12:07:00.00
SUBJECT: Hotline 09/11/95
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READ:UNKNOWN
TEXT:
--- Monday September 11, 1995 --- Vol. 8 No. 242 ---
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS ---
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
3129 Mount Vernon Ave., Alexandria, VA 22305 703-518-4600
CHRISTIAN COALITION MEET
I
I
SPOTLIGHT
The Republicans came, they
I
I
ISN'T THAT SPECIAL?
I
preached, they fished for
votes. Dole & Gramm catch
I
I
As the parties maneuver
|
headlines with a clash over
I
I
for '96, three sudden
abortion. Buchanan brings
I
I
resignations on the Hill
the crowd to its feet with
force 3 special elections.
his keynote speech, and
OR: All three Dem House
Gingrich delivers "manna
members are already running
from heaven" but most agree
I
for Packwood's Senate seat:
Ralph Reed & the gang were
I
DEFAZIO (D-04), FURSE (D-
the biggest victors, by
01) and WYDEN (D-03); all
displaying their leverage
I
get a freebie, with no risk
within the GOP. (#7-8)
I
to their House seats. The
two GOPers, froshies BUNN &
COOLEY, may have second
POWELL TO THE PEOPLE (#1)
I
thoughts. Dems see it as a
In his book, he says he feels
referendum on the GOP
comfortable with neither of the
Congress; another Wofford-
two parties. But, in a TIME
Thornburgh? (#19)
interview, he indicates he's
CA: Rep. NORM MINETA (D-
considering a GOP bid.
15) will resign 10/10, to
take a job with Lockheed;
LAST LICKS (#11)
GOP gets 1st shot at taking
A Packwood How's It Playing.
I
the seat in 20 years. More
Dems to depart? (#20)
STAYING BACK AT BASE CAMP (#17)
I
IL: JESSE JACKSON JR.
Rep. Dave Camp (R) opts to
I
joins the field for the
stay out of the MI Senate race.
soon-to-be-vacant 2nd CD;
will voters send a message
PoliticsUSA PREVIEW!
to his dad? (#21)
See p.2 for more details.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"People are wondering what Forrest Gump Colin Powell stands for.
Well, they're about to find out."
-- Colin Powell, TIME, 9/18 issue
(c) 1995 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
I
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition
I
extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or
affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
APN Founders: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Managing Editor: Ken Rudin
Deputy Managing Editor: Jessica Barrows
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: James Kaleigh, Benjamin White, Ron Eckstein
Editorial Assistants: Mike McGill, Doug Mintz
WHITE HOUSE '96: Powell (#1); Dole (#2); Gramm (#3);
Wilson (#4); Clinton (#5); Jackson (#6)
CHRISTIAN COALITION CONFERENCE
WEEKEND REVIVAL: Affirmation of the faith. (#7)
WINNERS & LOSERS: A "major mistake" for Dole on abortion? (#8)
NATIONAL BRIEFING: Packwood (#9-11); Rolodex (#12);
Cover to Cover (#13)
CAMPAIGNS OF '95: Balto. Mayor: GOTV is key tomorrow. (#14)
SENATE WATCH
COLORADO: Strickland is in, says Romer is not. (#15)
IOWA: Tinsman joins the GOP field to challenge Harkin. (#16)
MICHIGAN: Dave will not Camp out in Senate race. (#17)
NEW JERSEY: Torricelli sends a message. (#18)
OREGON: Is anyone not running? (#19)
ON THE HOUSE: CA 15: Mineta to quit (#20); IL 02: Jesse in (#21)
TV MONITOR (#22)
PoliticsUSA: A preview of PoliticsUSA, the World Wide Web
service of the American Political Network and NATIONAL JOURNAL,
is now available on the Internet at http://PoliticsUSA.com.
Questions? Call (703) 836-3300 for more info.
???? OVERLOOKED ????
WILL THE REAL CAL PLEASE TURN THE LIGHTS OFF WHEN YOU LEAVE
Dick Lugar, to the Christian Coalition conference 9/9: "I am the
Cal Ripken candidate. If people are interested in performance,
constancy, a person they can trust." Bob Dole, to potential FL
straw poll delegates in W. Palm Beach 9/10: "I'm the Cal Ripken
of the Republican Party. I've been at it a long time."
WHITE HOUSE '96
*1 POWELL: THIRD-PARTY TALK IS STRONGEST YET
In excerpts from his autobio, "My American Journey,"
published this week by Random House and run in the 9/18 issue of
TIME, Colin Powell writes, "The time may be at hand for a third
major party to emerge to represent the sensible center of the
American political spectrum." Calling himself a "fiscal
conservative with a social conscience," Powell wrote "neither of
the two major parties fits me comfortably in its present
state." He is "troubled by the political passion of those on the
extreme right who seem to claim divine wisdom on political as
well as spiritual matters" and "disturbed by the class and racial
undertone beneath the surface of their rhetoric." At the same
time, he is "put off by patronizing liberals who claim to know
what is best for society but devote little thought to who will
eventually pay the bills. I distrust rigid ideology from any
direction, and I am discovering that many Americans feel just as
I do." But he has yet to say whether or not he will run in '96,
writing he has no "driving ambition" to be president, and that to
be a successful politician requires a calling "that I do not yet
hear. Nevertheless, I do not unequivocally rule out a
political future. I would not enter to make a statement, but
to win. I understand the battlefield, and I know what winning
takes." In a TIME interview, Powell said he will decide about
running at the conclusion of his book tour -- and that he is
considering running as a Republican. He said if he runs as a
GOPer, "then I've got to get started in November"; if he goes as
an independent, then he'd have more time. In the book, Powell
also offers a "devastating critique" of the Clinton admin.'s
"modus operandi," noting that nat'l security meetings "meandered
like graduate-student bull sessions. Backbenchers sounded off
with the authority of Cabinet officers" (9/18).
"POWELL-MANIA": In the premiere issue of THE WEEKLY
STANDARD, Bill Kristol writes, "If I had to bet today on one
person for the Republican presidential nomination, I'd put my
money on Colin Powell." Kristol writes a "poor showing" by Bob
Dole in the 11/17 "Larry King" debate in FL combined with a 3rd-
place finish in the FL straw poll would "mark the beginning of
the end" for Dole: "By Christmas, Bob Dole could be out of the
Presidential race, graciously yielding to the man who will have
emerged as leader of the Republican field: Colin Powell" (9/18
issue). Speaker Newt Gingrich, on "Meet the Press," said if
Powell ran, "He would immediately become the chief rival to Dole.
I think Dole's institutional base is so deep that nobody could
automatically displace him as the front runner. But I think that
a Colin Powell who decided to enter the New Hampshire primary as
a Republican would be a very formidable contender." Gingrich
said an ind. candidacy by Powell "would, in fact, be a disaster
for
this country. This country is a party country. You run
the House and Senate with parties. You appoint cabinets out of
parties. There is no magic independence of people who are just
able to stand up and magically produce a government" (NBC, 9/10).
TIME's Kramer writes Powell is "charismatic and focused. His
thoughts are ordered and formed in complete sentences -- a truly
dying art. His entire aspect is commanding and confident" (9/18
issue). Mark Shields: "The American people are looking for
leadership, leadership, leadership. Every candidate in the field
is trying to prove it, that they have it. This guy doesn't
have to prove it" ("M/L," PBS, 9/8). Powell's interview with
Barbara Walters will air on ABC's "20/20" 9/15. Also appearing
on the show is Powell's wife, Alma, who expresses fear for her
husband's safety if he runs (see HOTLINE 9/8).
YEAH RIGHT: Powell spokesperson Col. Bill Smullen said the
book is "not a platform for anything other than an opportunity to
present his book to the American people. It is not a political
venue. It is a literary venue" (Goldstein, K.C. STAR, 9/9).
STATE YOUR PARTY: Shields: "I see him as an independent
candidate. It would be crazy for Colin Powell to run as a
Democrat or a Republican, to go into that tar pit with all the
other tar babies." Paul Gigot: "It's a long shot because of the
way the campaign finance laws are written. Both parties have
it stacked in their favor.
He would have to buck 200 years of
history to win as a third-party candidate" ("M/L," PBS, 9/8).
TIME's Mark Thompson: "People close to Powell acknowledge that if
he were to run as a Republican, even for the top spot on the
ticket, the infrastructure is there. If he were to do it as an
independent, the infrastructure isn't there. They'd have to
build it stick by stick. Consequently, I think if Dole continues
this sort of meandering, half-hearted effort, that might
encourage Powell to run for the top spot on the ticket" ("Late
Edition," CNN, 9/10). George Will, on Powell saying the country
is ready for a 3rd party: "I don't know whether he has the
political judgment to make that call; maybe he's right about
that. He uses a very peculiar phrase. He says neither party
fits me completely. What makes Colin Powell attractive to
people, I gather, is he's supposed to be a manly leader. A manly
leader doesn't say if the party doesn't fit me, I'll sit on the
sidelines" ("Brinkley," ABC, 9/10). Lamar Alexander, asked if he
would welcome a Powell run: "Of course I would and I have
personally encouraged him to run as a Republican. I hope he does
not run as an independent. We badly need a majority president
going into the next century and the independent candidacy is not
the best way to serve his country" ("IP," CNN, 9/8). ABC's Hal
Bruno, on why there is so much support for Powell: "It may be
that after all these years of angry negative campaigning, we've
created an angry electorate and they're looking for something
different. And many of them feel that something different is
Colin Powell" ("GMA," ABC, 9/11). Dem consultant Kiki Moore:
"Every day that he considers [running for pres.] is good news for
the Democratic Party because it demonstrates a weakness in the
current field of Republican candidates" ("FOX A.M. News," 9/11).
*2 DOLE: IS HE FOR REAL IN GRAMM'S BACK YARD?
Bob Dole brought his campaign to Dallas 9/10 "predicting for
the first time that he will beat rival Phil Gramm in his own back
yard." Previously, Dole had been to TX "only to raise money,"
but this time around he "introduced a statewide steering
committee designed to battle for votes." TX Dole chair T. Boone
Pickens "flatly declared" Dole will carry the TX primary. Pickens
cited an August poll that showed the two candidates "running neck
and neck." Gramm spokesperson Larry Neal: "In the end it's not
going to matter. Phil Gramm is going to win every district and
every delegate in the Texas primary" (Stahl, DALLAS MORNING NEWS,
9/11). Thirty-three "key Republican business and political
leaders" are on Dole's TX steering cmte (release, 9/10). Dole,
on Gramm: "Phil's trying to get some traction. He gets a lot
of straw, but not much traction. I've got a quote I'm going
to show him some day, that 'I'll never say anything bad about Bob
Dole.' Well, he's apparently forgotten that, but he has a right
to go out and attack the front runner, I guess. But it's getting
a little personal and, if he wants to continue it, that's up to
him. I'm not going to attack him. I'm going to try to beat Bill
Clinton. Bill Clinton is my target." Rowland Evans: "It sounds
as though Phil Gramm might be getting under your skin." Dole:
"No, but he might be" ("Evans & Novak," CNN, 9/9).
PRIMING FOR P3: Dole, in South FL 9/9, "hop-scotched by
helicopter and chartered plane" to four counties (Martin, Palm
Beach, Broward and Sarasota) choosing straw poll delegates
(Fiedler, MIAMI HERALD, 9/10).
COME ON, BOB: NEWSWEEK's Klein challenges Dole to "show us
your stuff": Bob Dole is "never offering anything positive,
never stretching himself, never daring to distress his party's
suffocating special interests. He comes across desperate and
uninspired. He was better in 1988 [But] he was humiliated
by a candidate [Bush] who ran very much the way Dole is running
now." But Dole may have learned the wrong lesson from '88.
Although the GOP electorate is likely more "Christian" than '88,
the biggest change is that "there is a lower tolerance for
posturing, for politicians who woo with pledges and pork rinds.
This isn't likely to be a front-runner friendly year.
Dole could risk a more compelling candidacy. He needn't go
squishy; he could begin by telling some hard conservative truths"
-- such as privatizing the Veterans Admin. and "weening" farmers
off assistance" (9/18). GOP analyst James Pinkerton: "It's a
very dangerous thing what Dole's doing. It's a show of weakness.
People might wonder: 'Do you [Dole] mean what you say? At
least Buchanan has been saying stuff like this all along. As
he pushes for the nomination, he is losing a lot of swing voters"
(PHILA. INQUIRER, 9/9). Bob Novak: "The problem with Senator
Dole is he doesn't look comfortable singing those songs." Al
Hunt: "Who will he pander to next? Will he come out against
fluoridated water and rock 'n' roll next week? Who knows with
Bob Dole now? He'll do anything now apparently, he's so
desperate. His fate is in Newt Gingrich's hands because he
can't make any deals unless it has Newt Gingrich's blessing and
cover" ("Capital Gang," CNN, 9/9). Dole, at the Christian
Coalition conference, "The papers will say, 'Oh, there goes Dole
to the right again.' Well, I've been there a while already"
(PHILA. INQUIRER, 9/10).
NEW YORK REBUFF: NY Gov. George Pataki, a Dole supporter,
joined NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), in saying that Dole "made a
mistake" in returning a contribution from the Log Cabin
Republicans. Sen. Al D'Amato, Dole's "top" NY backer also said
he "viewed the refund as a mistake." The Log Cabin Club gave the
returned $1,000 to Arlen Specter and contributed an additional
$1,000 to Pete Wilson (Finnegan, N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 9/10).
ARIZONA ERROR: ARIZONA REPUBLIC's Sidener reports, although
the Dole campaign announced an "impressive list" of Arizonans on
its AZ steering cmte last week, they "apparently forgot to ask
first" whether some of them were interested in membership. Dole
spokesperson Nelson Warfield said it was a "glitch," putting some
donors out as steering cmte members: "It sounds like a low-level
staff mistake that you don't want repeated. These things
happen in any campaign." Phoenix Suns pres. Jerry Colangelo was
one of "Arizona's top business leaders" incorrectly listed as a
steering cmte member. A Colangelo spokesperson: "I talked to Mr.
Colangelo, and he did contribute. But as far as he knows, he's
not on the steering committee" (9/9). AZ AG Grant Woods heads
Dole's AZ campaign. Ex-Sen. Barry Goldwater and Rep. John Rhodes
are honorary co-chairs.
HMMMM: NH Gov. Steve Merrill "will spend the entire day"
9/13 in DC with Dole and Newt Gingrich. Merrill "and other
governors will talk about the future relationship between the
federal and state governments" (Tibbetts, NH SUNDAY NEWS, 9/10).
OKLAHOMA SUPPORT: Gov. Frank Keating endorses Dole today
(release, 9/11).
*3 GRAMM: EVEN PACKWOOD SAYS HE GOT IT WRONG IN HIS DIARIES
Phil Gramm's campaign has "hit a sudden patch of turbulence"
over an entry in Bob Packwood's dairies "suggesting the two
Republicans worked to "evade federal election law and direct
$100,000 of political 'soft money' towards Packwood's 1992
reelection." The Senate ethics cmte has begun an investigation
into the matter (see HOTLINE 9/8). In a letter sent to the
ethics cmte, Gramm denied any wrongdoing and said the problem
stems from Packwood's "obvious misunderstanding of the election
law." Because the use of soft money "represents a huge gray area
in the campaign finance system that both parties exploit," unless
Gramm can be shown to have "consciously conspiring" to break the
law, his actions will be hard to condemn (Farrell, BOSTON GLOBE,
9/9). Gramm said as NRSC chair he oversaw "totally proper and
legal" contributions of $96,500 to the OR GOP for the purpose of
party building activities. In his diary, after meeting with
Gramm at a Packwood campaign rally, Packwood wrote, "What was
said in that room would be enough to convict us all of something.
I think that's a felony, I'm not sure." Ex-OR GOP chair Craig
Berkman, who was present at the meeting, supported Gramm: "There
was nothing to the best of my recollection that even suggested
[anything illegal. The meeting] was very general in nature about
how the senatorial committee was interested in seeing its
incumbents returned to office." Gramm also sent the ethics cmte
a copy of the 4/2/93 letter that accompanied the NRSC's $24,000
contribution to the OR GOP. That letter stated that the money
could not legally be used "in any way to influence a federal
election" (Feeny/Whittle, DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 9/9). More
Berkman: "Packwood must have been smoking peyote when he was
writing in those diaries." Gramm: "There was no wink, there was
no nod, and it was in writing I don't know what Sen. Packwood
was doing in his diaries" (James/Dellios, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 9/9).
Bob Packwood, appearing on CBS' "Face the Nation," said he had
misunderstood the situation: "That was totally wrong" (9/10).
*4 WILSON: HOPES TO PLACE STATE TAX CUT ON '96 BALLOT
Continuing his effort to "reposition himself as a tax
cutter," Pete Wilson proposed placing a 15% state income-tax
reduction initiative on the 11/96 ballot in CA. When the
Legislature did not pass his proposed tax cut, Wilson decided to
take the issue directly to the voters (AP/S.F. CHRONICLE, 9/9).
Wilson made his tax cut suggestion 9/8, in a speech to CA
business executives who were in Sacramento to push for
legislation before the legislature adjourns next weekend (Ayers,
N.Y. TIMES, 9/9). Wilson: "It is time to take our case to the
people as we have many times before in the past when the
Legislature did not act responsibly. The time has come to put
this on the ballot. Wilson announced his position after polls
last week showed him trailing both Bob Dole and Pres. Clinton in
CA. Assembly Dem Leader Willie Brown said Wilson made his
proposal "out of desperation, trying to find a way to get his
campaign jump-started" (AP/S.F. CHRONICLE, 9/9). Tax-cut talk is
not new to Wilson, who in his first term as gov. supported a
major tax increase. Since then he has been "urging the state
Legislature, without success, to make tax cuts." Wilson "made a
big show" in one of his first pres. swings in NH by taking the
pledge not to raise taxes as president. To get the initiative on
the CAballot will require "roughly 600,000" signatures, which
Wilson spokesperson Paul Kranhold said would be "a piece of cake"
(N.Y. TIMES, 9/9).
FROM ONE GOV TO ANOTHER: Ex-CA Gov. George Deukmejian (R)
endorsed Wilson. Deukmejian, who served the two terms before
Wilson was elected in '90: "He can be more helpful to California
as president of the United States than he can accomplish in the
last two years of his term" (AP/S.D. UNION-TRIBUNE, 9/8).
FRESH SQUEEZE IN FLORIDA? MIAMI HERALD's Fiedler writes
Wilson's "struggling" campaign found a "ray of hope" last week in
a "shaky poll" of FL GOPers that showed him "in strong
contention" to challenge Dole in the state. The poll showed Dole
in the lead with 33.7% followed by Gramm at 11.7 and Wilson in
third at 10.2. The poll surveyed only 205 GOPers which is
"barely enough" to keep the margin of error in single digits.
Regardless of the small sample size, the Wilson press office was
"quick to tout" the results as evidence of the campaign's
"competitiveness" (9/10).*5 CLINTON: FULL STEAM AHEAD
U.S. NEWS' "Washington Whispers" reports that while Pres.
Clinton's strategists do not believe the he will face a challenge
for the Dem nomination, they nevertheless do not "intend to be
caught off guard." One senior Clinton strategist: "Within three
weeks we could have a national campaign organized in the key
states." Aides said that "despite considerable jockeying among
the pro-Clinton ideological and political factions, the re-
election campaign will be run out of the West Wing, not campaign
headquarters in Washington. The likely boss: Deputy White House
Chief of Staff Harold Ickes" (9/18 issue).
*6 JACKSON: CLEARS HIS ACCOUNT WITH FEC
Jesse Jackson announced he had raised the $150,000 he owed
the FEC from his '88 pres. campaign, "removing one of the
obstacles to a potential return to the presidential trail next
year." Had he not paid the settlement, Jackson would not be
eligible to receive federal matching campaign funds in future
races. Jackson: "All options are live." He outlined three
possible political courses of action for himself in '96 -- to
stay out of the race, to challenge Clinton in the Dem primaries
or to run as an independent. He noted, however, that the second
option was "remote" and that he would wait until the spring to
decide on an independent run. Jackson said that part of his
decision would be based on whether Clinton "embraces an activist
agenda" for urban development, education, and health, as well as
enforcement of affirmative action laws (Taylor, W. POST, 9/10).
CHRISTIAN COALITION CONFERENCE
*7 WEEKEND REVIVAL AFFIRMS THE FAITH
"It thundered and shook like and old-fashioned tent
revival." Four thousand "keyed-up members" of the Christian
Coalition jammed into a posh Washington hotel over the weekend,
"while outside protesters chanted and called them right-tilting
extremists." Inside, "the conservative, well-dressed, mostly
white and middle-aged Coalition members whooped and jumped to
their feet as a Republican Who's Who showed up" to speak to them
(Thompson, K.C. STAR, 9/9). CNN's Duvall: "The place crackled
with excitement, the approval thunderous when the preaching got
going, when God or abortion came up" (9/9). NBC's Ifill: "For
every one person in that room, you had a sense that there were
twenty more at home like them" ("Wash. Week," PBS, 9/8). At the
end of it all, Coalition exec. dir. Ralph Reed declared to his
audience, "We have gained what we have always sought -- a place
at the table." During the weekend, "the political equivalent of
apple polishing was so intense," that some, like Bob Dole, "did
not even try to hide" motives (Berke, N.Y. TIMES, 9/9). Dole: "I
read in this morning's papers about how all these candidates were
coming down here to court all of you. Well, maybe we are.
What's wrong with that? You are the glue that holds America
together. You've got a lit fire, and you must keep it hot"
(PHILA. INQUIRER, 9/9). More Dole: "You're going to have a big,
big say about what happens in 96." But, by injecting the
"sure-fire issue of abortion," Phil Gramm "made perhaps the most
bald plea for coalition members to back him over Dole" for the
GOP nomination (N.Y. TIMES, 9/9).
DOLE VS. GRAMM: Waving a copy of Phyllis Schlafly's
Republican Nat'l Coalition for Life (RNCL) "pledge" affirming
that "the unborn child has a fundamental individual right to life
which cannot be infringed," Gramm won "a loud ovation" when he
said, "I signed the pledge." Gramm continued, "I understand that
my colleague Bob Dole is going to be here. He has not signed
the pledge. While he is here, I want you to ask him to join us"
(Berke, N.Y. TIMES, 9/9). Dole, in response during his speech,
"asserted that he had never wavered in speaking out to protect
the sanctity of all human life." But when "taunted" by
"scattered cries" of "sign the pledge," Dole "seemed stunned at
first," then "shot back": "Don't look at pledges. Look at the
record" (Kranish, BOSTON GLOBE, 9/9). Dole, also in his speech,
"again pushed Hollywood and the record industry to remove
excessive sex and violence from their products." Dole "took aim
at last week's MTV Music Video Awards show," in which artists,
like Madonna, "jabbed at him." Dole: "We have a right to express
outrage. Do not lose our voice on moral issues. Do not be
intimidated by the voice of political correctness" (Feeney,
DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 9/9).
BUCHANAN: Pat Buchanan, who delivered the keynote address,
brought the participants "to their feet" as he "defended the
right to life and called for term limits for federal judges."
Buchanan "received the warmest reception of any of the major GOP
candidates at the Coalition convention." Buchanan, in his
speech, pledged to end the "new world order," and shut down
"outcome-based education" along with the Dept. of Education --
"positions he has held for years and that suited his audience
just fine." The audience also cheered when he "reminded them he
had opposed" Clinton's nomination of Supreme Court Justice Ruth
Bader Ginsburg and noted Sens. Dole, Gramm, Lugar and Specter did
not raise objection to the nominations of Ginsburg and Steven
Breyer, and by doing so, "helped tip the balance on the court
toward pro-choice justices" (Hallow, W. TIMES, 9/10).
GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich's words "came like manna from
heaven" to the Coalition members. Gingrich: "It is liberalism
which brought a pact with the devil. It is their welfare
state that has trapped the poor in drug addiction, prostitution,
violent crime, ignorance, illiteracy and misery." CNN's Morton:
"The loudest cheers went to non-candidate Newt Gingrich, who
assured the Coalition he is with them for religion and
responsibility. Watching Gingrich love it all, watching the
crowd, the red, white and blue banners, you had to think he
looked a lot like a candidate accepting a nomination" (9/8).
Although Gingrich's speech drew a standing ovation from the
audience, it also "immediately provoked anger and dismay from
some of the liberal targets [he] derided." Interfaith Alliance's
Jill Hanauer: "It is shocking and tragic that someone in such a
seat of power would speak such uncivil and hateful language to
any group." People for the American Way legis. dir. Matt
Freeman: "To go into that crowd and to suggest that anyone has
drawn a pact with the devil is irresponsible rhetoric.
Perhaps he think he was kidding, but there is no doubt that some
of those participants took it seriously" (Freedberg, S.F.
CHRONICLE, 9/9). Gingrich also "defended the Coalition from
reporters and editorial writers who routinely-practice
Christian-phobia." Gingrich: "Take the last 25 New York Times
editorials on the phobias they care about and how passionate they
can be about every American's right to be involved. Unless, of
course, you believe in prayer. Every American's right to be
involved -- unless you believe in family" (N.Y. TIMES, 9/9).
OTHERS: Dick Lugar "was received warmly but without much
enthusiasm as he gave a speech warning that cities and states are
becoming excessively dependent on gambling revenues, a source of
income that he said is undermining families." Lamar Alexander
"received a lukewarm reception and gave a standard version of his
stump speech, calling for massive transfer of spending and
regulatory power from the federal government to the states. Far
stronger support was voiced for" Alan Keyes, who, "almost in
preacher-like rhetoric, called for a moral revival to assert the
importance of two-parent families and the legitimate role of God
in public life" (Edsall, W. POST, 9/10). CNN's Duvall, on Lugar:
"[He] brought his 'I am the one you can trust campaign' and won
some applause on taxes." Duvall, on reaction to Alexander:
"Polite and proper" (9/9). Pete Wilson was unable to attend.
Arlen Specter was the only major GOP candidate not to be invited.
Specter did, however, stage a news conference at the Lincoln
Memorial, in which he complained, "The guiding principle of
America is the principle of inclusion and the principle of
tolerance" (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 9/9).
*8 WINNERS & LOSERS: A "MAJOR MISTAKE" FOR DOLE ON ABORTION?
BOSTON GLOBE's Kranish reports Bob Dole's retort after being
prodded by Phil Gramm to sign the Republican Nat'l Coalition for
Life (RNCL) abortion pledge was what Gramm's campaign had "hoped
for" --underscoring Dole's view on abortion and "reminding some"
when Dole got angry with George Bush during the '88 campaign and
said, "Stop lying about my record." A Gramm aide "acknowledged"
the campaign had arranged the protest of Dole. Dole spokesperson
Nelson Warfield "criticized" Gramm's "ploy du jour": "Five months
ago, Gramm wouldn't say the word abortion. In fact, he
proclaimed, 'I'm not running for preacher." Dole, unlike Gramm,
believes abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest.
Dole strategists have said he refused to sign the pledge because
he does not want to "alienate potential support" in the general
election (9/9). But Warfield did say Dole "believes that a
Republican platform should retain a pro-life plank in 1996. He
supported the platform in '84, '88, and '92 and intends to do so
next year" (Hallow, W. TIMES, 9/9). RNCL pol. dir. Sandy Tiller
said rumors had circulated before the conference that Dole might
sign the pledge during his speech; but Gramm's challenge ended
any chance of that. Tiller explained Dole would never "concede"
to his rival and that she was "really kind of annoyed" by Gramm's
ploy (Pins, DES MOINES REGISTER, 9/9). Gramm, Pat Buchanan, Alan
Keyes, Dick Lugar and Bob Dornan have all signed the pledge.
DON'T TELL HIM WHAT TO DO: Dole, on "Evans and Novak": "I
don't let Phil Gramm determine what I'll do in the campaign.
I've got a record that's unblemished as far as pro-life is
concerned. [The pledge is] being promoted by Phyllis
Schlafly, who's a big Gramm supporter. We'll make our
position clear without asking Phil Gramm to call the shots for
us" (CNN, 9/9).
JUDGMENT DAY: W. TIMES' Hallow writes Dole, "committed what
many GOP political operatives regarded as the fourth major
mistake of his campaign this year" by having "refused to sign the
pledge or to say explicitly that he would keep the current
pro-life plank intact if nominated" (9/10). Christian Coalition
founder Pat Robertson: "If there is a winner of this round, Phil
Gramm is the one that came out ahead" (NBC, 9/9). However,
"without prompting," in a N.Y. TIMES interview, Robertson
defended Dole's "conservative bona fides, rejecting what he said
was recent criticism that Dole was merely pandering to religious
conservatives." Robertson also "made it clear" that he
considered Dole "quite acceptable to religious conservatives,"
although the Coalition has said that "they will not endorse" any
of the pres. candidates. Robertson: "I don't think Bob Dole is
being some kind of chameleon. [He's been a] life long
conservative." Robertson praised Gramm as well, but said, "I
still think it's Dole's to lose. I don't see right now, any
other candidates emerging" (Niebuhr, N.Y. TIMES, 9/11). ABC's
Hal Bruno, asked which candidate won the most support at the
conference: "It was somewhat divided. Going in, Pat Buchanan and
Phil Gramm had the most support among this group because where
they stand on the issues is closest to where the conservative
Christians are. But Senator Dole has also turned in a very
conservative direction, and he has had some appeal with them"
("GMA," ABC, 9/11).
REED REACTS: Coalition exec. dir. Ralph Reed, asked if it
would hurt Dole if he does not sign a pro-life plank pledge: "I
don't really know what the outcome of that will be, because it
just happened the other day, but I think that Senator Dole has
indicated that he may sign it later. He's indicated that he is
committed to the pro-life plank" (CNN, 9/10). Reed has tried to
"downplay" the abortion issue as of late in order to "broaden"
the organization's appeal (Shepard, COX/AUSTIN-AMERICAN
STATESMAN, 9/9). More Reed, asked if the GOP nominee must sign a
pledge to support a constitutional amendment to ban all
abortions: "I don't think any of us really knows what the end
game is going to be. But if [the GOPers] want to continue
that momentum going into '96 it's based on a three legged stool.
One leg of that stool is the traditional message of lower taxes
and balanced budgets. The second leg of that stool is the Perot
message of term limits and political reform. And the third leg
of that stool is the pro-life and pro-family stand" (CNN, 9/10).
NATIONAL BRIEFING
*9 PACKWOOD: HE'S GONE 10/1; ROTH TO HEAD FINANCE
Sen. Bob Packwood (R-OR), yielding to Dems "incensed by his
continued leadership role and even his presence" in Senate
matters, said he would leave the Senate by 10/1. He also stepped
down as Finance Cmte chair; both decisions were "recommended" by
Senate Maj. Leader Bob Dole, whose spokesperson said Packwood
would be succeeded as chair by Sen. Bill Roth (R-DE). The fixed
date of Packwood's resignation came after Dole started a
firestorm by saying that he may need up to 90 days to stay on and
finish up his work (see HOTLINE, 9/8). Dems, led by Min. Leader
Tom Daschle, said this was unacceptable, and without a firm
timetable were talking of forcing a vote on Packwood's expulsion
(Chen, L.A. TIMES, 9/10). N.Y. TIMES' Seelye speculates that
Dole wanted Packwood to stay on for an assortment of reasons,
including (1) Packwood "provides a reliable Republican vote;" (2)
the more time that can elapse between the special election and
the "sordid revelations" of Packwood's diaries, the "better the
Republicans' chances of keeping the seat;" and (3) Dole wanted to
keep Packwood on the Finance cmte so there would be no room for
Dole rival Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX), who seeks appointment to the
cmte. Dole was "applauded" by members of the Christian Coalition
when he announced Packwood's 10/1 departure date, but he "did not
mention that he had tried to delay Mr. Packwood's departure by 90
days" (9/9).
THE WORD ON ROTH: The 74-year old Roth is "known as a team
player" and is an "ardent tax-cutter who lacks his predecessor's
ambivalence about the bold reform agenda championed by
conservative House Republicans" (Chandler, W. POST, 9/9). U.S.
NEWS' Roberts writes he is a "more timid lawmaker who is far less
likely to assert his independence from conservative orthodoxy"
(9/18 issue). And SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER's Connelly notes
that Roth is "known more for his trademark toupee than the brain
beneath it" (9/8).
NIXON PARALLELS: Writing in the NEW YORKER, Alan Brinkley
says that Packwood's resignation "has many similarities to
Richard Nixon's tortured departure from the White House" in '74:
"Like Nixon, Packwood remained in office long after his
reputation was destroyed, and resigned only when his last
remaining supporters abandoned him. Like Nixon, he meticulously
recorded incriminating information and then tried to suppress and
alter it. Like Nixon, he denied his offenses to the end, tried
to discredit his accusers, and relied heavily on procedural and
legal arguments to avoid facing the substance of the charges
against him. Like Nixon, he insisted that he was resigning for
the good of the country" (9/18 issue). Also, Packwood first won
election to the Senate in '68, the same year Nixon won the
presidency.
CLINTON CASE: In a W. TIMES op-ed, Landmark Legal
Foundation's Mark Levin writes that while he does "not speak as a
special pleader" for Packwood, "there is something amiss when
President Clinton is held to a lower ethical standard than"
Packwood. "Mr. Clinton insists to a federal court that no less
than the United States Constitution stands between him and the
sexual harassment charges he faces. The president says he's
immune from such bothersome lawsuits, even though the phrase
'presidential immunity' is nowhere to be found in the
Constitution. Mr. Clinton is charged, in court, of exposing
himself and rubbing his hand on the inside of his accuser's leg.
While Mr. Packwood's accusers were treated with respect and
presumed truthful, the young lady who sued Mr. Clinton is
portrayed as politically motivated and generally disparaged.
What about it, Mrs. [Sen. Barbara] Boxer? Why not go to the
Senate floor today and demand that the president answer the
charges under oath?" (9/8). Christian Action Network Pres.
Martin Mawyer: "As Senator Packwood has been forced to resign
over allegations almost twenty years old then President
Clinton should be subject to impeachment hearings over the Paula
Jones allegations, which are less than five years old and have
standing. This proposal will be met with derision for Bill
Clinton's slavish minions in the national media, since they led
the witch hunt against Senator Packwood, but the fairness of this
argument cannot be denied" (release, 9/7).
*10 PACKWOOD: PUNDITS GET IN THEIR LAST LICKS
Al Hunt: "Packwood's behavior was disgraceful. The
Senate Ethics Committee dragged its feet on this case and
they only turned to expulsion when he became a visible political
embarrassment. This is a decision that's going to come back
to haunt them because it was less an act of courage then of
expediency." Bob Novak: "God forbid that any of us
should
have their life and their fate in the hands in the Senate Ethics
Committee." NATIONAL REVIEW's Kate O'Beirne: "He ultimately did
what was really unforgivable which was make his colleagues climb
out a branch for him and then he sawed it off. They were only
forced to act because it became politically embarrassing" ("Cap.
Gang," CNN, 9/9). ABC's Julie Johnson: "If you really look at
this, in any other work place in America were the behavior to be
this that's described in the Packwood diaries, the individual
would have been fired without the benefit of the $80,000 year
pension lifetime benefit" ("Brinkley," ABC, 9/10). Jack Germond:
"That scene in the Senate, the emotional scene, is a classic
example of the hypocrisy of these clowns at their worst. They
were all so mad at him. They were fed up with the guy. The
Senate is finally going to stumble into the 20th Century."
Eleanor Clift: "His behavior has been truly despicable, but the
Senate basically was acting in their own self-interest"
("McLaughlin Group," 9/9). Mona Charen: "This draconian
punishment really has an odor of PC about it." Howard Fineman:
"What they really did here was equate sexual misconduct with
treason. He made them do it. He said, 'You've got to get me
out of here or I'm going to ruin the Senate." Juan Williams:
"People take the message that it's something, this larger
statement about sexual harassment in society, in fact, it's a
statement about the club still protecting itself" ("Cap. Gang
Sunday," CNN, 9/10). Barnes, on the level of political damage to
the GOP: "Minimal, compared to what it might have been had they
had lurid, weeks-long, public hearings on national TV. It would
have impede the Republican agenda and blotted out every other
story in the country, probably including even the O.J. Simpson
trial." Morton Kondracke: "This complicates Dole's life
enormously. He's going to have to, in effect, run the Finance
committee. What this means is that there's more likelihood
that there will be a train wreck." Barnes said that Dole "has an
opportunity now to step in, he ought to call a time-out in his
presidential campaign and say, 'I'm going to spend the next eight
weeks in Washington. The agenda there is much more important"
("McLaughlin Group," 9/9). Lamar Alexander: "He did the right
thing to resign and the Senate can get on to what it ought to be
doing" ("IP," CNN, 9/8).
*11 HOW'S IT PLAYING: EDITORIALS ON PACKWOOD
ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT GAZETTE: Packwood "did the honorable
thing. [However,] if it is not fit that the distinguished
lout from Oregon remain in the Senate chamber, does the Knight of
Chappaquiddick belong there? That is something else for the
gentlemen and ethicists of the Senate to consider -- if they can
remember who Mary Jo Kopechne was, and might have been" (9/10).
Balto. SUN: "While expulsion would have been excessive if
judged solely on the past record, the public now demands much
higher standards for performance in public office and behavior in
the workplace" (9/8).
BOSTON GLOBE: "Packwood's sordid saga was particularly
anguishing for women, many of whom had supported him because it
was so rare to have a Republican defender of women's rights.
Many puzzled how he could publicly respect women while demeaning
them with his private acts" (9/8).
BOSTON HERALD header: "Good riddance, Packwood" (9/8).
CHICAGO TRIBUNE: "The larger question is whether the
decision by the ethics committee reflects the arrival of a higher
moral standard in Congress or just another case of political
expediency. The circumstances, unfortunately, suggest the
latter. The unexpected bomb dropped by the committee suggests
that the Senate leadership simply decided it had to be rid of
Packwood before he bled any more on his fellow senators" (9/8).
DAILY ASTORIAN [OR]: "It is absurd to refer to Packwood as
a brilliant legislator, as many are. He was, first and foremost,
a political blackmailer and a shakedown artist. Oregonians --
ill served and embarrassed by this man -- can rightly say: Good
riddance" (9/11).
DES MOINES REGISTER, under the header, "Start packing,
Senator": "What happened to doing the honorable thing? Why is
he making his resignation effective on Oct. 1, rather than today?
If Packwood worked for a corporation, the company guards
already would have come to escort him from the building. His
continued presence is intolerable" (9/9).
N.Y. DAILY NEWS: "There are those who think that kissing,
fondling and groping unwilling women is small stuff on the crime
index. But even if you could buy that -- and it would take a
leap of faith -- it would be difficult to be as generous in
considering Packwood's other offenses. He has lost the
integrity necessary to make law for law-abiding citizens. If he
ever had it" (9/8).
N.Y. POST: "The principal charges against Bob Packwood turn
on boorish behavior -- some of which took place more than 25
years ago in an entirely different social and cultural climate.
The unhappy reality is that lots of men who drank too much in the
1960s and 1970s conducted themselves as did Packwood. It's
distressing that the mere allegation of gray-area sexual
misconduct has become an automatic knockout punch -- sufficient,
in most circumstances, to run men out of public life. The Senate
has dishonored itself in its treatment of Bob Packwood" (9/8).
N.Y. TIMES: "Packwood should be given a proper chance to
pack his belongings. But that does not require him to remain as
a sitting senator for the next three weeks. His resignation
should be effective immediately. The idea that he will be
allowed to participate in Senate debates and cast votes on
critical national issues for even another day demeans the
institution and insults the public" (9/9).
Portland OREGONIAN: "These glimpses into the mind of one of
the nation's most important political figures will further demean
the reputation of the Senate among many of the public. But also
note this: The diaries came to light only because the Senate's
own ethics committee fought for and then released the relevant
portions. Future historians may well look back and see the
Packwood case as the watershed moment when the Senate came to
grips with disgraceful conduct" (9/10).
RICHMOND TIMES-DISPATCH: "Packwood's reputation probably
lies beyond public redemption. But at least his resignation
spares continuing embarrassment to the Senate, to his party, and
to the people of the state whose interests he presumed to serve"
(9/9).
SYRACUSE HERALD-JOURNAL: "He is resigning, but the stunning
thing is Packwood still doesn't get it. Almost three years after
17 women came forward and articulated the pain he caused them
Packwood calls what he did 'over-eagerly kissing.' [The case]
is a lesson to Packwood's current colleagues and those who may
seek office in the future. 'Over-eagerly kissing' is harassment.
Harassment is a crime. It will no longer be tolerated or
overlooked" (9/8).
USA TODAY: "The Ethics Committee's abrupt call for
expulsion after a plodding investigation left open a question:
What changed the senators' minds? Was the ultimate offense
that of violating the clubbiness of the Senate: Thou shalt not
embarrass a fellow senator?" (9/8).
W. POST: "Packwood's diary tells us about a lot more than
his sexual practices. It is also an indictment of the way
elected officials fiddle with, skirt and violate the laws that
are supposed to regulate the flow of political money into
campaigns. Senators are falling over themselves to argue that
the resolution of the Packwood case shows that a new day has come
to Capitol Hill in the matter of sexual harassment. They should
do the same about the corruption that is now a routine part of
elections" (9/10).
*12 HOTLINE ROLODEX: SUING THE STEPHANO-POLICE; THE NEW FANZINES
Peter Papps, Asst. U.S. Atty for NH and a lifelong friend of
Senior Clinton Adviser George Stephanopoulos, "said he will file
a civil rights complaint" against DC police after witnessing
Stephanopoulos' traffic arrest. Stephanopoulos was led away in
handcuffs at about 11:45pm 9/7 from a Georgetown street; he was
charged with fleeing the scene of an accident and driving with an
expired license. Stephanopoulos said the charge of fleeing wasridiculous:
"Do you know where my car was when I was supposedly
fleeing the scene? In the parking space, stopped." DC police
sources told the W. Post the arresting officers were "overzealous
and in error" and that the charges would likely be dropped at
Stephanopoulos' 9/18 court date. Papps, a self-described
"conservative Republican," on the arresting officer: "I'm looking
at him thinking, 'Is he a real cop?" Papps "said he is
questioning his own faith in police conduct after the experience"
(West, NH SUNDAY NEWS, 9/10).
GEORGE: CNN's "Reliable Sources" had some harsh reviews for
GEORGE, JFK Jr.'s new political mag. Ellen Hume: "Just what the
world always needed, more political pinups. They should have
opened up a restaurant instead." W. POST's Howard Kurtz: "With a
couple of exceptions, this was really low-calorie journalism.
I guess some of this is for people who find People magazine too
taxing." U.S. NEWS' Steve Roberts: "It's pretty damn thin."
SCRIPPS HOWARD's Martin Schramm: "It's politics for the first-
time voter. It's a primer in that sense." Bernard Kalb:
"Looking through this magazine was like attending a party in the
Hamptons. Lots of name dropping" (9/10). NEWSWEEK's Kaplan is
much more generous to John Jr. after his press conference
performance: "Unlike the exam, this time he cleared the bar on
his first attempt" (9/18 issue).
WEEKLY STANDARD: U.S. NEWS' Steve Roberts: "This is a damn
good thing that we have this magazine. It's a cause for
celebration. This is going to be an important magazine.
We're all going to have to read it because this is where the
energy and the ideas in Washington are." SCRIPPS HOWARD's Martin
Schramm: "This is being run essentially by a White House
Republican staff in exile. These guys all want to go back in and
run one more president. They interview presidential
candidates, pick the one they want, and then make them
President." Ellen Hume: "The Standard is a serious magazine, and
I welcome it, and I plan to subscribe to it. It's actually had a
very strong first issue. We learn things from it" ("Reliable
Sources," CNN, 9/10).
*13 COVER TO COVER
TIME: Photo: Colin Powell. Text: "Colin Powell: An American
Journey" (9/18 issue).
NEWSWEEK: Photo: Elderly woman in wheel chair painfully held
aloft by struggling yuppie. Text: "Mediscare. Get Ready to Get
Less: The attack on Medicare. Young vs. Old: Who will carry the
burden?" (9/18 issue).
U.S. NEWS: "America's Best Colleges: 1996 Annual Guide"
(9/18 issue).
WEEKLY STANDARD: Drawing: Newt Gingrich swinging just above
scorching flames that seem to have reached the seat of his pants,
firing an automatic weapon with a belt of bullets draped about
his shoulder and carrying a brief case that's been thrown open
releasing a knife, a pen and a series of papers." Text:
"Permanent Offense" (9/18 issue).
BUSINESS WEEK: "Management Meccas" (9/18 issue).
CAMPAIGNS OF '95
*14 BALTIMORE MAYOR: RACE TIGHTENS; GOTV IS KEY TOMORROW
Balto. SUN/WMAR-TV poll, conducted 9/7-8 by Mason-Dixon PMR,
surveyed 620 likely Dem primary voters; margin of error +/-4%
(SUN, 9/10). Tested: Mayor Kurt Schmoke, City Council pres. Mary
Pat Clarke, watertaxi driver Kelley Brohawn. Three candidates
are also running in the GOP primary. Primary 9/12.
NOW
8/95
DEM PRIMARY ALL BLK WHT ALL
Schmoke
47%
74%
14%
43%
Clarke
43 14 78
37
Brohawn
111
--
Undec.
9 11 7
20
Pollster Brad Coker: "It's a very close, competitive race."
Johns Hopkins' Matthew Crenson: "What's going to count is
turnout. The candidate who gets his vote to the polls wins."
Clarke: "It feels as though we have the momentum here, that
people are coming together on wanting change." Schmoke, who is
seeking a 3rd term: "It means I'm going to win. Every poll I've
seen indicates I'm ahead." About 80% said the endorsements of
the Balto. SUN for Clarke and Gov. Parris Glendening (D) for
Schmoke would have no effect on their vote (SUN, 9/10). SUN
header: "Candidates offer stark contrast in their views of city."
Subhead: "Schmoke perceives city as on the rise; Clarke see
decline" (9/10).
SENATE WATCH
*15 COLORADO: STRICKLAND IS IN, SAYS ROMER IS NOT
Denver atty Tom Strickland (D) filed candidacy papers for
the seat of retiring Sen. Hank Brown (R). Strickland, who has
not sought elective office before, will make a formal
announcement next month. He could face "some tough competition"
from ex-Sen. Gary Hart (D), should Hart run, as well as from Gov.
Roy Romer (D). But Strickland said Romer had "assured him he
will not enter the race." In addition, Romer's son will serve as
Strickland's finance chair. Strickland insisted that his "lack
of experience in public office won't be a liability" and noted
that he has previously chaired the CO Metropolitan Transportation
Development Commission and worked as then-Gov. Dick Lamm's (D)
policy and research director (Kerwin, ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS, 9/8).
Other announced candidates: AG Gale Norton (R), Jerry Brown CO
campaign manager Phil Perington (D) and state Sen. Paul Weissmann
(D). Other possibles/likelies: Denver councilmember Ramona
Martinez (D), Univ/CO Law School Dean Gene Nichol (D), Rep. Wayne
Allard (R-04), ex-Sec/State Mary Estill Buchanan (R), atty Bill
Eggert (R) and state Sen. Charlie Duke (R).
*16 IOWA: TINSMAN JOINS THE GOP FIELD TO CHALLENGE HARKIN
State Sen. Maggie Tinsman (R) officially entered the race
for the GOP nomination on 9/7, joining state Rep. Steve Grubbs
(R); the winner faces Sen. Tom Harkin (D) in '96. Tinsman, who
is pro-choice and anti-death penalty, "must mobilize the moderate
wing of the party to win the GOP nomination;" Grubbs is pro-life
and pro-death penalty. Tinsman said that experience is the "key
difference" between the her and Grubbs: "He's the minimum age of
30 years old. He hasn't had much time to have a lot of
experiences" (Kerwin, DES MOINES REGISTER, 9/8). Tinsman, asked
if she is out of the GOP mainstream on abortion: "The Republican
Party is broad enough to appeal to a variety of people. My
appeal is on more critical issues, such as balancing the budget"
(Smiley, OMAHA WORLD-HERALD, 9/8). Other possible: Rep. Jim
Nussle (R-02).
*17 MICHIGAN: DAVE WILL NOT CAMP OUT IN SENATE RACE
Rep. Dave Camp (R-04), ending weeks of speculation, said 9/8
he would not seek the GOP Senate nomination. Camp cited his work
in the House as the only MI GOPer on Ways and Means: "Achieving
our legislative goals this fall is critical. We are involved in
some of the most important debates Congress has had in a long
time. I want to give my full and undivided attention to these
important issues." Camp would have given up a "safe-seat" and a
"choice committee assignment" to join an "uphill battle" for the
nomination. Talk-show host/'94 Sen. primary cand. Ronna Romney
(R) is "better known" in MI and raised more money than Camp in
the first half of '95. Camp's decision "leaves the door open for
a Western Michigan Republican, such as State Sen. William Van
Regenmorter." Regenmorter, who has "expressed interest" in the
race, is not up for re-election and would not have to give up his
seat in order to run. He plans to decide "within a week"
(Selinger, DETROIT NEWS, 9/9). The Romney campaign contends that
Camp's decision will sustain their "momentum" because Camp, like
Romney, is "conservative and pro-life." Romney: "I have always
had a great deal of respect and admiration for Dave. His
message of lower taxes, reduced spending, and less government
regulation is also my message" (Romney release, 9/8). Sen. Carl
Levin (D) is seeking a fourth term. Announced GOPer: Businessman
Jim Nicholson. Other possible GOPers: Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-02)
and ex-Rep. Bill Schuette. Dem: Chrysler Corp. exec. Edward
Hamilton.
*18 NEW JERSEY: TORRICELLI SENDS A MESSAGE
Rep. Bob Torricelli (D-09) has formed an exploratory cmte in
preparation of a bid for the seat of retiring Sen. Bill Bradley
(D) in '96. Torricelli, the first Dem to take such action, did
so "in a bid to head off a primary fight." The cmte, "a show of
organizational strength," includes 48 mayors and other local
elected officials. Officials from several counties, including
Hudson Co., of which Torricelli represents a portion, did not
join the cmte because Rep. Robert Menendez (D-13) also is
"considering" a run. Menendez said he has asked Hudson Dems to
"hold off making any endorsements;" he will make a decision by
the end of the month. Ex-Gov. Jim Florio (D), also considering a
run, "said he will use speaking engagements, radio appearances
and newspaper columns to 'generate ideas and discussions' that
could lay the foundation for a race." Florio also would like to
see the results of a poll conducted by Rutgers' Eagleton Inst. of
Politics. The poll will show if the "anti-Florio sentiment
triggered by his $2.8 billion tax hike has died down."
Torricelli, who has "made it clear" he will run, used the
exploratory event to "portray the race as a clear choice between
him and his likely opponent," Rep. Dick Zimmer (R-12).
Torricelli "painted himself as a moderate in step with New Jersey
voters and Zimmer in the mold" of Speaker Newt Gingrich. Zimmer
then accused Torricelli of "engaging in politics of smear"
(Kiely, Bergen RECORD, 9/7). Other announced cand.: Passaic Co.
Freeholder Richard DuHaime (R). Other possible GOPers: state
Sen. Richard LaRossa (R), Rep. Marge Roukema (R-05) and state
Sen. Bill Gormley (R). Other possible Dems: Rep. Rob Andrews (D-
09), Cherry Hill Mayor Susan Bass Levin (D), state Sen. John
Lynch (D), state Sen. John Adler (D), Assemblyman Neil Cohen (D)
and Morris Co. prosecutor Michael Murphy (D).
*19 OREGON: IS ANYONE NOT RUNNING?
The first open Senate race here in 29 years has raised the
possibility that all five members of the state's House delegation
may run for Bob Packwood's (R) soon-to-be-vacated seat. It is,
of course, a risk-free proposition -- they don't have to give up
their House seats to make the race -- and thus all five have
either declared or are "considering" a candidacy. The first
House member to announce was five-term Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-04)
(see HOTLINE, 9/8); he was followed by two-term "liberal" Rep.
Elizabeth Furse (D-01) on 9/8 and eight-term "veteran liberal"
Rep. Ron Wyden (D-03) on 9/10. Furse has "already drawn the
attention of national women's groups." If Gov. John Kitzhaber
(D) sets the election date more than 80 days after Packwood's
10/1 resignation date, there will be primaries to pick the Dem
and GOP nominees. If the special election is within 80 days, the
party central cmtes will choose their nominees. Sellwood, OR Dem
precinct captain Peggy Roth: "If it's a primary process, I think
Ron Wyden has the name recognition and the money to give anyone a
run for their money. If it's an internal committee process, it
will be a more even playing field." Other possible Dems include
businessman Harry Lonsdale and ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts.
Lonsdale, a strong environmentalist who lost to Sen. Mark
Hatfield (R) in '90 and narrowly lost the '92 Dem primary, had
earlier declared his candidacy against Hatfield for '96. On the
GOP side, there is evidence the field "could narrow this week."
Frosh Rep. Jim Bunn (R-05), a "conservative" who was expected to
announce his decision on 9/11, said "he needed more time to
decide." Camille Hukari, the chair of the "powerful" AG-PAC
agricultural group, "pleaded" with another possible
"conservative" GOPer, frosh Rep. Wes Cooley (R-02), to stay in
the House rather than run for the Senate. She said Cooley is
doing a "fine job" but predicted the GOP nominee will be
"conservative" state Senate Pres. Gordon Smith, "hands down."
Hukari "said conservatives didn't want to see a repeat of the
last gubernatorial campaign, in which the Republicans fielded
conservative [ex-Rep.] Denny Smith -- who couldn't pick up needed
Portland-metro area votes" and lost badly to Kitzhaber. Hukari:
"We have to consider who can win. You've got to have statewide
appeal. Gordon has statewide appeal. He would be able to
beat the Democrat. He's got charisma, he's got the experience,
he's got the farming background" (Suo, Portland OREGONIAN, 9/10).
Earlier, Cooley said he would run, but only if the nominee was to
be chosen by the GOP cmte, not in a primary. As for Bunn, he
said he continues to be "extremely interested in joining this
race," but that he feels he needs "more time to carefully
consider all the issues involved" (Bunn release, 9/9). Other
possible GOPers: Denny Smith, state Schools Supt./'86 gov.
nominee Norma Paulus, '94 CD-01 cand. Bill Witt, state Labor
Commis. Jack Roberts, and real estate broker Ron Sunseri.
DEMS THE WORD: Furse, a co-founder of the Oregon Peace
Institute and a "champion" of abortion rights, "played up her
relative inexperience": "I am not a career politician. I never
have been a never wanted to be." Her '92 win was her first
elected office; she won re-election in '94 by 301 votes over
Witt. Wyden, pushing for a primary, said "that Oregonians
wouldn't like the nominees chosen in the political backrooms."
Roberts, who declined to seek re-election in '94, said she would
decide this week; she'd be "more inclined to run" if there was a
primary election: "I have won three general elections in the
state. Of the field of announced candidates, none have won a
statewide race." At least three prominent Dems said they are
staying out of the race -- Kitzhaber, ex-Gov. Neil Goldschmidt
and Portland Mayor Vera Katz (Mapes, OREGONIAN, 9/9).
ON THE HOUSE
*20 CA 15: MINETA TO QUIT CONGRESS FOR LOCKHEED JOB
Rep. Norm Mineta (D), "one of the nation's most powerful
Asian-American leaders," will announce his resignation today,
effective 10/10, in order to take a VP post with Lockheed Martin
Corp. His departure is "certain to touch off a free-for-all" for
his seat; it will be a "fierce battleground as Republicans
salivate over their first clear shot at a district redrawn twice
since Mineta won it [in '74] and easily held it for two decades."
Gov. Pete Wilson (R) has 14 days to call for a special election.
The primary is likely to be held sometime in 1/96 and the special
election probably coinciding with the 3/26/96 pres. primary. The
CD is 46% Dem, 38% GOP. For his part, Mineta "insisted he's not
scurrying from a sinking ship": "I think the Democrats are in a
very good position because the overreach of what the Republicans
are doing is going to be felt by the public. But is there
going to be a reversal [from the '94 results] in the 1996
elections? I don't think so." Even before Mineta's surprise
decision, Karla Dowdy (R), a West Valley-Mission College District
Board member who lost a '94 state Assembly race, said she was
running. Possible Dems: Santa Clara Co. Supervisors Mike Honda &
Jim Beall and ex-Supervisor Rod Diridon. Potential GOPer:
Assemblyman Jim Cunneen (Parragher, SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS, 9/11).
*21 IL 02: THE SON ALSO ANNOUNCES
Rainbow Coalition national field dir. Jesse Jackson Jr.
formally announced his bid for the "soon-to-be-vacated" seat of
Rep. Mel Reynolds (D). "As if there was any doubt whose
reputation he would be riding," Jackson entered the Salem Baptist
Church to the "strains of a new song: 'Jesse Jackson Jr., he's
the one, the reverend's son, to be a congressman." After a 75-
minute introduction that included two songs from his sister,
Santita, and comments from his father, the younger Jackson spoke
of "restoring the tarnished image" of the second district
(Grumman, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 9/10). While he "welcomed his
father's support," Jackson said he expects to be elected on his
own merits: "God has blessed me with a good name, a good name
whose good works I intend to extend. But I neither seek nor
expect any 'gimmes.' This is a democracy, not a royal
lineage. I intend to work and earn your trust." Jackson said he
will work for an "urban policy with incentives to reinvest in
America, to put America back to work at livable wages" (AP/Balto.
SUN, 9/10).
SPECIAL ELECTION DATE: Gov. Jim Edgar (R) is expected to
announce the date of the special election by 9/13. By law he
must establish a primary date at least 72 days after Reynolds
leaves office on 10/1; a special general election must be held
before 1/1 (Hardy, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 9/10).
LABOR LIKES PALMER: The Service Employees International
Union (SEIU) Joint Council #1, which represents 75,000 workers in
IL, endorsed state Sen. Alice Palmer and gave her campaign $5,000
(release, 9/9). Other Dems: state Sen. Min. Leader Emil Jones,
state Sen. Bill Shaw and state Rep. Monique Davis.
TV MONITOR
*22 THIS MORNING: ABC's "GMA" hosted ABC political dir. Hal
Bruno. "FOX Morning News" hosted ex-RNC chair Frank Fahrenkopf,
Dem consultant Kiki Moore and W. TIMES' Donald Lambro.
SUNDAY: NBC's "Meet the Press" hosted Speaker Newt
Gingrich. CBS' "Face the Nation" hosted Bob Packwood, Sen. Maj.
Whip Trent Lott and Christian Coalition exec. dir. Ralph Reed.
CNN's "Late Edition" hosted Lott and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).
CNN's "Crossfire Sunday" hosted CO Gov. Roy Romer (D) and Dole
co-chair/ex-MN Rep. Vin Weber. C-SPAN's "Sunday Journal" hosted
THE WEEKLY STANDARD's Bill Kristol and ex-DNC Chair David
Wilhelm.
PREDICTIONS: Fred Barnes: "If Colin Powell runs for
President, he'll do it as a Republican." Eleanor Clift: "His
book tour is going to be a primary tour and he's going to be
really pressed to say what he believes in. We may find out that
he doesn't have any strong beliefs." Jack Germond: "Packwood's
gone by Monday." Morton Kondrake: "Colin Powell will run for
President as an Independent." John McLaughlin: "The dismissed
indictment of Arkansas Governor Jim Guy Tucker will be
reinstated" ("McLaughlin Group," 9/9).
LAUGHS: Jay Leno, on the possibility Bob Packwood would
remain in office for 90 days: "He figures it will take him that
long to go around and kiss everyone goodbye." Leno, on George
Stephanopoulos' arrest: "Police said right away they knew it wa a
member of the Clinton White House. The car was in the far left
lane, it kept going around in circles, and it ended up in the
same place where it left" ("Tonight Show," NBC, 9/8).
TOP TEN SURPRISES IN THE PACKWOOD DIARIES
10. Often writes letters to "Penthouse" signed "Packing Wood in
Washington."
9. Had a brief sexual encounter with the Liberty Bell.
8. Those creepy Calvin Klein commercials? Packwood's idea.
7. Admits to having a schoolgirl crush on Phil Gramm.
6. Woke up naked one morning in the lap of the Abraham Lincoln
statue.
5. Once broke into Frank Perdue warehouse and spent entire
weekend groping chicken parts.
4. Has recurring dream where he gets to second base with Betsey
Ross.
3. Once cold-cocked by Janet Reno.
2. Refers to his tongue as "the ethics probe."
1. Has had more sex on his desk than Newt Gingrich
("Late Show," CBS, 9/8).
TV SOUNDBITE
"My advice to anybody in the future who is a rational person,
who is a conservative or a moderate, is just don't allow
Gail Sheehy to interview you because you will be savaged."
-- Newt Gingrich, "Meet the Press," NBC, 9/10
ATTACHMENT
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS ---
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
3129 Mount Vernon Ave., Alexandria, VA 22305 703-518-4600
CHRISTIAN COALITION MEET
SPOTLIGHT
The Republicans came, they
ISN'T THAT SPECIAL?
preached, they fished for
votes. Dole & Gramm catch
As the parties maneuver
headlines with a clash over
I
for '96, three sudden
abortion. Buchanan brings
I
I
resignations on the Hill
the crowd to its feet with
I
force 3 special elections.
his keynote speech, and
OR: All three Dem House
Gingrich delivers "manna
I
members are already running
from heaven" but most agree
I
I
for Packwood's Senate seat:
Ralph Reed & the gang were
I
I
DEFAZIO (D-04), FURSE (D-
the biggest victors, by
01) and WYDEN (D-03); all
displaying their leverage
I
get a freebie, with no risk
within the GOP. (#7-8)
to their House seats. The
two GOPers, froshies BUNN &
COOLEY, may have second
POWELL TO THE PEOPLE (#1)
thoughts. Dems see it as a
In his book, he says he feels
referendum on the GOP
comfortable with neither of the
Congress; another Wofford-
two parties. But, in a TIME
Thornburgh? (#19)
interview, he indicates he's
CA: Rep. NORM MINETA (D-
considering a GOP bid.
15) will resign 10/10, to
take a job with Lockheed;
LAST LICKS (#11)
GOP gets 1st shot at taking
A Packwood How's It Playing.
the seat in 20 years. More
Dems to depart? (#20)
STAYING BACK AT BASE CAMP (#17)
IL: JESSE JACKSON JR.
Rep. Dave Camp (R) opts to
joins the field for the
stay out of the MI Senate race.
soon-to-be-vacant 2nd CD;
will voters send a message
PoliticsUSA PREVIEW!
to his dad? (#21)
See p.2 for more details.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"People are wondering what Forrest Gump Colin Powell stands for.
Well, they're about to find out."
-- Colin Powell, TIME, 9/18 issue
(c) 1995 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. This prohibition
extends to sharing this publication with clients and/or
affiliate companies. All rights reserved.
APN Founders: Doug Bailey, Roger Craver
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Robert Balkin
Managing Editor: Ken Rudin
Deputy Managing Editor: Jessica Barrows
TV Editor: Vincent Fusco
Staff Writers: James Kaleigh, Benjamin White, Ron Eckstein
Editorial Assistants: Mike McGill, Doug Mintz
WHITE HOUSE '96: Powell (#1); Dole (#2); Gramm (#3);
Wilson (#4); Clinton (#5); Jackson (#6)
CHRISTIAN COALITION CONFERENCE
WEEKEND REVIVAL: Affirmation of the faith. (#7)
WINNERS & LOSERS: A "major mistake" for Dole on abortion? (#8)
NATIONAL BRIEFING: Packwood (#9-11); Rolodex (#12);
Cover to Cover (#13)
CAMPAIGNS OF '95: Balto. Mayor: GOTV is key tomorrow. (#14)
SENATE WATCH
COLORADO: Strickland is in, says Romer is not. (#15)
IOWA: Tinsman joins the GOP field to challenge Harkin. (#16)
MICHIGAN: Dave will not Camp out in Senate race. (#17)
NEW JERSEY: Torricelli sends a message. (#18)
OREGON: Is anyone not running? (#19)
ON THE HOUSE: CA 15: Mineta to quit (#20); IL 02: Jesse in (#21)
TV MONITOR (#22)
PoliticsUSA: A preview of PoliticsUSA, the World Wide Web
service of the American Political Network and NATIONAL JOURNAL,
is now available on the Internet at http://PoliticsUSA.com.
Questions? Call (703) 836-3300 for more info.
???? OVERLOOKED ????
WILL THE REAL CAL PLEASE TURN THE LIGHTS OFF WHEN YOU LEAVE
Dick Lugar, to the Christian Coalition conference 9/9: "I am the
Cal Ripken candidate. If people are interested in performance,
constancy, a person they can trust." Bob Dole, to potential FL
straw poll delegates in W. Palm Beach 9/10: "I'm the Cal Ripken
of the Republican Party. I've been at it a long time."
WHITE HOUSE '96
*1 POWELL: THIRD-PARTY TALK IS STRONGEST YET
In excerpts from his autobio, "My American Journey,"
published this week by Random House and run in the 9/18 issue of
TIME, Colin Powell writes, "The time may be at hand for a third
major party to emerge to represent the sensible center of the
American political spectrum." Calling himself a "fiscal
conservative with a social conscience," Powell wrote "neither of
the two major parties fits me comfortably in its present
state." He is "troubled by the political passion of those on the
extreme right who seem to claim divine wisdom on political as
well as spiritual matters" and "disturbed by the class and racial
undertone beneath the surface of their rhetoric." At the same
time, he is "put off by patronizing liberals who claim to know
what is best for society but devote little thought to who will
eventually pay the bills. I distrust rigid ideology from any
direction, and I am discovering that many Americans feel just as
I do." But he has yet to say whether or not he will run in '96,
writing he has no "driving ambition" to be president, and that to
be a successful politician requires a calling "that I do not yet
hear. Nevertheless, I do not unequivocally rule out a
political future. I would not enter to make a statement, but
to win. I understand the battlefield, and I know what winning
takes." In a TIME interview, Powell said he will decide about
running at the conclusion of his book tour -- and that he is
considering running as a Republican. He said if he runs as a
GOPer, "then I've got to get started in November"; if he goes as
an independent, then he'd have more time. In the book, Powell
also offers a "devastating critique" of the Clinton admin.'s
"modus operandi," noting that nat'l security meetings "meandered
like graduate-student bull sessions. Backbenchers sounded off
with the authority of Cabinet officers" (9/18).
"POWELL-MANIA": In the premiere issue of THE WEEKLY
STANDARD, Bill Kristol writes, "If I had to bet today on one
person for the Republican presidential nomination, I'd put my
money on Colin Powell." Kristol writes a "poor showing" by Bob
Dole in the 11/17 "Larry King" debate in FL combined with a 3rd-
place finish in the FL straw poll would "mark the beginning of
the end" for Dole: "By Christmas, Bob Dole could be out of the
Presidential race, graciously yielding to the man who will have
emerged as leader of the Republican field: Colin Powell" (9/18
issue). Speaker Newt Gingrich, on "Meet the Press," said if
Powell ran, "He would immediately become the chief rival to Dole.
I think Dole's institutional base is so deep that nobody could
automatically displace him as the front runner. But I think that
a Colin Powell who decided to enter the New Hampshire primary as
a Republican would be a very formidable contender." Gingrich
said an ind. candidacy by Powell "would, in fact, be a disaster
for this country. This country is a party country. You run
the House and Senate with parties. You appoint cabinets out of
parties. There is no magic independence of people who are just
able to stand up and magically produce a government" (NBC, 9/10).
TIME's Kramer writes Powell is "charismatic and focused. His
thoughts are ordered and formed in complete sentences -- a truly
dying art. His entire aspect is commanding and confident" (9/18
issue). Mark Shields: "The American people are looking for
leadership, leadership, leadership. Every candidate in the field
is trying to prove it, that they have it.
This
guy
doesn't
have to prove it" ("M/L," PBS, 9/8). Powell's interview with
Barbara Walters will air on ABC's "20/20" 9/15. Also appearing
on the show is Powell's wife, Alma, who expresses fear for her
husband's safety if he runs (see HOTLINE 9/8).
YEAH RIGHT: Powell spokesperson Col. Bill Smullen said the
book is "not a platform for anything other than an opportunity to
present his book to the American people. It is not a political
venue. It is a literary venue" (Goldstein, K.C. STAR, 9/9).
STATE YOUR PARTY: Shields: "I see him as an independent
candidate
It would be crazy for Colin Powell to run as a
Democrat or a Republican, to go into that tar pit with all the
other tar babies." Paul Gigot: "It's a long shot because of the
way the campaign finance laws are written. Both parties have
it stacked in their favor. He would have to buck 200 years of
history to win as a third-party candidate" ("M/L," PBS, 9/8).
TIME's Mark Thompson: "People close to Powell acknowledge that if
he were to run as a Republican, even for the top spot on the
ticket, the infrastructure is there. If he were to do it as an
independent, the infrastructure isn't there. They'd have to
build it stick by stick. Consequently, I think if Dole continues
this sort of meandering, half-hearted effort, that might
encourage Powell to run for the top spot on the ticket" ("Late
Edition," CNN, 9/10). George Will, on Powell saying the country
is ready for a 3rd party: "I don't know whether he has the
political judgment to make that call; maybe he's right about
that. He uses a very peculiar phrase. He says neither party
fits me completely. What makes Colin Powell attractive to
people, I gather, is he's supposed to be a manly leader. A manly
leader doesn't say if the party doesn't fit me, I'll sit on the
sidelines" ("Brinkley," ABC, 9/10). Lamar Alexander, asked if he
would welcome a Powell run: "Of course I would and I have
personally encouraged him to run as a Republican. I hope he does
not run as an independent. We badly need a majority president
going into the next century and the independent candidacy is not
the best way to serve his country" ("IP," CNN, 9/8). ABC's Hal
Bruno, on why there is so much support for Powell: "It may be
that after all these years of angry negative campaigning, we've
created an angry electorate and they're looking for something
different. And many of them feel that something different is
Colin Powell" ("GMA," ABC, 9/11). Dem consultant Kiki Moore:
"Every day that he considers [running for pres.] is good news for
the Democratic Party because it demonstrates a weakness in the
current field of Republican candidates" ("FOX A.M. News," 9/11).
*2 DOLE: IS HE FOR REAL IN GRAMM'S BACK YARD?
Bob Dole brought his campaign to Dallas 9/10 "predicting for
the first time that he will beat rival Phil Gramm in his own back
yard." Previously, Dole had been to TX "only to raise money,"
but this time around he "introduced a statewide steering
committee designed to battle for votes." TX Dole chair T. Boone
Pickens "flatly declared" Dole will carry the TX primary. Pickens
cited an August poll that showed the two candidates "running neck
and neck." Gramm spokesperson Larry Neal: "In the end it's not
going to matter. Phil Gramm is going to win every district and
every delegate in the Texas primary" (Stahl, DALLAS MORNING NEWS,
9/11). Thirty-three "key Republican business and political
leaders" are on Dole's TX steering cmte (release, 9/10). Dole,
on Gramm: "Phil's trying to get some traction, He gets a lot
of straw, but not much traction. I've got a quote I'm going
to show him some day, that 'I'll never say anything bad about Bob
Dole.' Well, he's apparently forgotten that, but he has a right
to go out and attack the front runner, I guess. But it's getting
a little personal and, if he wants to continue it, that's up to
him. I'm not going to attack him. I'm going to try to beat Bill
Clinton. Bill Clinton is my target." Rowland Evans: "It sounds
as though Phil Gramm might be getting under your skin." Dole:
"No, but he might be" ("Evans & Novak," CNN, 9/9).
PRIMING FOR P3: Dole, in South FL 9/9, "hop-scotched by
helicopter and chartered plane" to four counties (Martin, Palm
Beach, Broward and Sarasota) choosing straw poll delegates
(Fiedler, MIAMI HERALD, 9/10).
COME ON, BOB: NEWSWEEK's Klein challenges Dole to "show us
your stuff": Bob Dole is "never offering anything positive,
never stretching himself, never daring to distress his party's
suffocating special interests. He comes across desperate and
uninspired. He was better in 1988 [But] he was humiliated
by a candidate [Bush] who ran very much the way Dole is running
now." But Dole may have learned the wrong lesson from '88.
Although the GOP electorate is likely more "Christian" than '88,
the biggest change is that "there is a lower tolerance for
posturing, for politicians who WOO with pledges and pork rinds.
This isn't likely to be a front-runner friendly year.
Dole could risk a more compelling candidacy. He needn't go
squishy; he could begin by telling some hard conservative truths"
-- such as privatizing the Veterans Admin. and "weening" farmers
off assistance" (9/18). GOP analyst James Pinkerton: "It's a
very dangerous thing what Dole's doing. It's a show of weakness.
People might wonder: 'Do you [Dole] mean what you say? At
least Buchanan has been saying stuff like this all along. As
he pushes for the nomination, he is losing a lot of swing voters"
(PHILA. INQUIRER, 9/9). Bob Novak: "The problem with Senator
Dole is he doesn't look comfortable singing those songs." Al
Hunt: "Who will he pander to next? Will he come out against
fluoridated water and rock 'n' roll next week? Who knows with
Bob Dole now? He'll do anything now apparently, he's so
desperate. His fate is in Newt Gingrich's hands because he
can't make any deals unless it has Newt Gingrich's blessing and
cover" ("Capital Gang," CNN, 9/9). Dole, at the Christian
Coalition conference, "The papers will say, 'Oh, there goes Dole
to the right again.' Well, I've been there a while already"
(PHILA. INQUIRER, 9/10).
NEW YORK REBUFF: NY Gov. George Pataki, a Dole supporter,
joined NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), in saying that Dole "made a
mistake" in returning a contribution from the Log Cabin
Republicans. Sen. Al D'Amato, Dole's "top" NY backer also said
he "viewed the refund as a mistake." The Log Cabin Club gave the
returned $1,000 to Arlen Specter and contributed an additional
$1,000 to Pete Wilson (Finnegan, N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 9/10).
ARIZONA ERROR: ARIZONA REPUBLIC's Sidener reports, although
the Dole campaign announced an "impressive list" of Arizonans on
its AZ steering cmte last week, they "apparently forgot to ask
first" whether some of them were interested in membership. Dole
spokesperson Nelson Warfield said it was a "glitch," putting some
donors out as steering cmte members: "It sounds like a low-level
staff mistake that you don't want repeated. These things
happen in any campaign." Phoenix Suns pres. Jerry Colangelo was
one of "Arizona's top business leaders" incorrectly listed as a
steering cmte member. A Colangelo spokesperson: "I talked to Mr.
Colangelo, and he did contribute. But as far as he knows, he's
not on the steering committee" (9/9). AZ AG Grant Woods heads
Dole's AZ campaign. Ex-Sen. Barry Goldwater and Rep. John Rhodes
are honorary co-chairs.
HMMMM: NH Gov. Steve Merrill "will spend the entire day"
9/13 in DC with Dole and Newt Gingrich. Merrill "and other
governors will talk about the future relationship between the
federal and state governments" (Tibbetts, NH SUNDAY NEWS, 9/10).
OKLAHOMA SUPPORT: Gov. Frank Keating endorses Dole today
(release, 9/11).
*3 GRAMM: EVEN PACKWOOD SAYS HE GOT IT WRONG IN HIS DIARIES
Phil Gramm's campaign has "hit a sudden patch of turbulence"
over an entry in Bob Packwood's dairies "suggesting the two
Republicans worked to "evade federal election law and direct
$100,000 of political 'soft money' towards Packwood's 1992
reelection." The Senate ethics cmte has begun an investigation
into the matter (see HOTLINE 9/8). In a letter sent to the
ethics cmte, Gramm denied any wrongdoing and said the problem
stems from Packwood's "obvious misunderstanding of the election
law." Because the use of soft money "represents a huge gray area
in the campaign finance system that both parties exploit," unless
Gramm can be shown to have "consciously conspiring" to break the
law, his actions will be hard to condemn (Farrell, BOSTON GLOBE,
9/9). Gramm said as NRSC chair he oversaw "totally proper and
legal" contributions of $96,500 to the OR GOP for the purpose of
party building activities. In his diary, after meeting with
Gramm at a Packwood campaign rally, Packwood wrote, "What was
said in that room would be enough to convict us all of something.
I think that's a felony, I'm not sure." Ex-OR GOP chair Craig
Berkman, who was present at the meeting, supported Gramm: "There
was nothing to the best of my recollection that even suggested
[anything illegal. The meeting] was very general in nature about
how the senatorial committee was interested in seeing its
incumbents returned to office." Gramm also sent the ethics cmte
a copy of the 4/2/93 letter that accompanied the NRSC's $24,000
contribution to the OR GOP. That letter stated that the money
could not legally be used "in any way to influence a federal
election" (Feeny/Whittle, DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 9/9). More
Berkman: "Packwood must have been smoking peyote when he was
writing in those diaries." Gramm: "There was no wink, there was
no nod, and it was in writing I don't know what Sen. Packwood
was doing in his diaries" (James/Dellios, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 9/9).
Bob Packwood, appearing on CBS' "Face the Nation," said he had
misunderstood the situation: "That was totally wrong" (9/10).
*4 WILSON: HOPES TO PLACE STATE TAX CUT ON '96 BALLOT
Continuing his effort to "reposition himself as a tax
cutter," Pete Wilson proposed placing a 15% state income-tax
reduction initiative on the 11/96 ballot in CA. When the
Legislature did not pass his proposed tax cut, Wilson decided to
take the issue directly to the voters (AP/S.F. CHRONICLE, 9/9).
Wilson made his tax cut suggestion 9/8, in a speech to CA
business executives who were in Sacramento to push for
legislation before the legislature adjourns next weekend (Ayers,
N.Y. TIMES, 9/9). Wilson: "It is time to take our case to the
people as we have many times before in the past when the
Legislature did not act responsibly. The time has come to put
this on the ballot. Wilson announced his position after polls
last week showed him trailing both Bob Dole and Pres. Clinton in
CA. Assembly Dem Leader Willie Brown said Wilson made his
proposal "out of desperation, trying to find a way to get his
campaign jump-started" (AP/S.F. CHRONICLE, 9/9). Tax-cut talk is
not new to Wilson, who in his first term as gov. supported a
major tax increase. Since then he has been "urging the state
Legislature, without success, to make tax cuts." Wilson "made a
big show" in one of his first pres. swings in NH by taking the
pledge not to raise taxes as president. To get the initiative on
the CAballot will require "roughly 600,000" signatures, which
Wilson spokesperson Paul Kranhold said would be "a piece of cake"
(N.Y. TIMES, 9/9).
FROM ONE GOV TO ANOTHER: Ex-CA Gov. George Deukmejian (R)
endorsed Wilson. Deukmejian, who served the two terms before
Wilson was elected in '90: "He can be more helpful to California
as president of the United States than he can accomplish in the
last two years of his term" (AP/S.D. UNION-TRIBUNE, 9/8).
FRESH SQUEEZE IN FLORIDA? MIAMI HERALD's Fiedler writes
Wilson's "struggling" campaign found a "ray of hope" last week in
a "shaky poll" of FL GOPers that showed him "in strong
contention" to challenge Dole in the state. The poll showed Dole
in the lead with 33.7% followed by Gramm at 11.7 and Wilson in
third at 10.2. The poll surveyed only 205 GOPers which is
"barely enough" to keep the margin of error in single digits.
Regardless of the small sample size, the Wilson press office was
"quick to tout" the results as evidence of the campaign's
"competitiveness" (9/10).
*5 CLINTON: FULL STEAM AHEAD
U.S. NEWS' "Washington Whispers" reports that while Pres.
Clinton's strategists do not believe the he will face a challenge
for the Dem nomination, they nevertheless do not "intend to be
caught off guard." One senior Clinton strategist: "Within three
weeks we could have a national campaign organized in the key
states." Aides said that "despite considerable jockeying among
the pro-Clinton ideological and political factions, the re-
election campaign will be run out of the West Wing, not campaign
headquarters in Washington. The likely boss: Deputy White House
Chief of Staff Harold Ickes" (9/18 issue).
*6 JACKSON: CLEARS HIS ACCOUNT WITH FEC
Jesse Jackson announced he had raised the $150,000 he owed
the FEC from his '88 pres. campaign, "removing one of the
obstacles to a potential return to the presidential trail next
year." Had he not paid the settlement, Jackson would not be
eligible to receive federal matching campaign funds in future
races. Jackson: "All options are live." He outlined three
possible political courses of action for himself in '96 -- to
stay out of the race, to challenge Clinton in the Dem primaries
or to run as an independent. He noted, however, that the second
option was "remote" and that he would wait until the spring to
decide on an independent run. Jackson said that part of his
decision would be based on whether Clinton "embraces an activist
agenda" for urban development, education, and health, as well as
enforcement of affirmative action laws (Taylor, W. POST, 9/10).
CHRISTIAN COALITION CONFERENCE
*7 WEEKEND REVIVAL AFFIRMS THE FAITH
"It thundered and shook like and old-fashioned tent
revival." Four thousand "keyed-up members" of the Christian
Coalition jammed into a posh Washington hotel over the weekend,
"while outside protesters chanted and called them right-tilting
extremists." Inside, "the conservative, well-dressed, mostly
white and middle-aged Coalition members whooped and jumped to
their feet as a Republican Who's Who showed up" to speak to them
(Thompson, K.C. STAR, 9/9). CNN's Duvall: "The place crackled
with excitement, the approval thunderous when the preaching got
going, when God or abortion came up" (9/9). NBC's Ifill: "For
every one person in that room, you had a sense that there were
twenty more at home like them" ("Wash. Week," PBS, 9/8). At the
end of it all, Coalition exec. dir. Ralph Reed declared to his
audience, "We have gained what we have always sought -- a place
at the table." During the weekend, "the political equivalent of
apple polishing was so intense," that some, like Bob Dole, "did
not even try to hide" motives (Berke, N.Y. TIMES, 9/9). Dole: "I
read in this morning's papers about how all these candidates were
coming down here to court all of you. Well, maybe we are.
What's wrong with that? You are the glue that holds America
together. You've got a lit fire, and you must keep it hot"
(PHILA. INQUIRER, 9/9). More Dole: "You're going to have a big,
big say about what happens in 96." But, by injecting the
"sure-fire issue of abortion," Phil Gramm "made perhaps the most
bald plea for coalition members to back him over Dole" for the
GOP nomination (N.Y. TIMES, 9/9).
DOLE VS. GRAMM: Waving a copy of Phyllis Schlafly's
Republican Nat'l Coalition for Life (RNCL) "pledge" affirming
that "the unborn child has a fundamental individual right to life
which cannot be infringed," Gramm won "a loud ovation" when he
said, "I signed the pledge." Gramm continued, "I understand that
my colleague Bob Dole is going to be here. He has not signed
the pledge. While he is here, I want you to ask him to join us"
(Berke, N.Y. TIMES, 9/9). Dole, in response during his speech,
"asserted that he had never wavered in speaking out to protect
the sanctity of all human life." But when "taunted" by
"scattered cries" of "sign the pledge," Dole "seemed stunned at
first," then "shot back": "Don't look at pledges. Look at the
record" (Kranish, BOSTON GLOBE, 9/9). Dole, also in his speech,
"again pushed Hollywood and the record industry to remove
excessive sex and violence from their products." Dole "took aim
at last week's MTV Music Video Awards show," in which artists,
like Madonna, "jabbed at him." Dole: "We have a right to express
outrage. Do not lose our voice on moral issues. Do not be
intimidated by the voice of political correctness" (Feeney,
DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 9/9).
BUCHANAN: Pat Buchanan, who delivered the keynote address,
brought the participants "to their feet" as he "defended the
right to life and called for term limits for federal judges."
Buchanan "received the warmest reception of any of the major GOP
candidates at the Coalition convention." Buchanan, in his
speech, pledged to end the "new world order," and shut down
"outcome-based education" along with the Dept. of Education --
"positions he has held for years and that suited his audience
just fine." The audience also cheered when he "reminded them he
had opposed" Clinton's nomination of Supreme Court Justice Ruth
Bader Ginsburg and noted Sens. Dole, Gramm, Lugar and Specter did
not raise objection to the nominations of Ginsburg and Steven
Breyer, and by doing so, "helped tip the balance on the court
toward pro-choice justices" (Hallow, W. TIMES, 9/10).
GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich's words "came like manna from
heaven" to the Coalition members. Gingrich: "It is liberalism
which brought a pact with the devil. It is their welfare
state that has trapped the poor in drug addiction, prostitution,
violent crime, ignorance, illiteracy and misery." CNN's Morton:
"The loudest cheers went to non-candidate Newt Gingrich, who
assured the Coalition he is with them for religion and
responsibility. Watching Gingrich love it all, watching the
crowd, the red, white and blue banners, you had to think he
looked a lot like a candidate accepting a nomination" (9/8).
Although Gingrich's speech drew a standing ovation from the
audience, it also "immediately provoked anger and dismay from
some of the liberal targets [he] derided." Interfaith Alliance's
Jill Hanauer: "It is shocking and tragic that someone in such a
seat of power would speak such uncivil and hateful language to
any group." People for the American Way legis. dir. Matt
Freeman: "To go into that crowd and to suggest that anyone has
drawn a pact with the devil is irresponsible rhetoric.
Perhaps he think he was kidding, but there is no doubt that some
of those participants took it seriously" (Freedberg, S.F.
CHRONICLE, 9/9). Gingrich also "defended the Coalition from
reporters and editorial writers who routinely-practice
Christian-phobia." Gingrich: "Take the last 25 New York Times
editorials on the phobias they care about and how passionate they
can be about every American's right to be involved. Unless, of
course, you believe in prayer. Every American's right to be
involved unless you believe in family" (N.Y. TIMES, 9/9).
OTHERS: Dick Lugar "was received warmly but without much
enthusiasm as he gave a speech warning that cities and states are
becoming excessively dependent on gambling revenues, a source of
income that he said is undermining families." Lamar Alexander
"received a lukewarm reception and gave a standard version of his
stump speech, calling for massive transfer of spending and
regulatory power from the federal government to the states. Far
stronger support was voiced for" Alan Keyes, who, "almost in
preacher-like rhetoric, called for a moral revival to assert the
importance of two-parent families and the legitimate role of God
in public life" (Edsall, W. POST, 9/10). CNN's Duvall, on Lugar:
"[He] brought his 'I am the one you can trust campaign' and won
some applause on taxes." Duvall, on reaction to Alexander:
"Polite and proper" (9/9). Pete Wilson was unable to attend.
Arlen Specter was the only major GOP candidate not to be invited.
Specter did, however, stage a news conference at the Lincoln
Memorial, in which he complained, "The guiding principle of
America is the principle of inclusion and the principle of
tolerance" (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 9/9).
*8 WINNERS & LOSERS: A "MAJOR MISTAKE" FOR DOLE ON ABORTION?
BOSTON GLOBE's Kranish reports Bob Dole's retort after being
prodded by Phil Gramm to sign the Republican Nat'l Coalition for
Life (RNCL) abortion pledge was what Gramm's campaign had "hoped
for" --underscoring Dole's view on abortion and "reminding some"
when Dole got angry with George Bush during the '88 campaign and
said, "Stop lying about my record." A Gramm aide "acknowledged"
the campaign had arranged the protest of Dole. Dole spokesperson
Nelson Warfield "criticized" Gramm's "ploy du jour": "Five months
ago, Gramm wouldn't say the word abortion. In fact, he
proclaimed, 'I'm not running for preacher." Dole, unlike Gramm,
believes abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest.
Dole strategists have said he refused to sign the pledge because
he does not want to "alienate potential support" in the general
election (9/9). But Warfield did say Dole "believes that a
Republican platform should retain a pro-life plank in 1996. He
supported the platform in '84, '88, and '92 and intends to do so
next year" (Hallow, W. TIMES, 9/9). RNCL pol. dir. Sandy Tiller
said rumors had circulated before the conference that Dole might
sign the pledge during his speech; but Gramm's challenge ended
any chance of that. Tiller explained Dole would never "concede"
to his rival and that she was "really kind of annoyed" by Gramm's
ploy (Pins, DES MOINES REGISTER, 9/9). Gramm, Pat Buchanan, Alan
Keyes, Dick Lugar and Bob Dornan have all signed the pledge.
DON'T TELL HIM WHAT TO DO: Dole, on "Evans and Novak": "I
don't let Phil Gramm determine what I'll do in the campaign.
I've got a record that's unblemished as far as pro-life is
concerned. [The pledge is] being promoted by Phyllis
Schlafly, who's a big Gramm supporter. We'll make our
position clear without asking Phil Gramm to call the shots for
us" (CNN, 9/9).
JUDGMENT DAY: W. TIMES' Hallow writes Dole, "committed what
many GOP political operatives regarded as the fourth major
mistake of his campaign this year" by having "refused to sign the
pledge or to say explicitly that he would keep the current
pro-life plank intact if nominated" (9/10). Christian Coalition
founder Pat Robertson: "If there is a winner of this round, Phil
Gramm is the one that came out ahead" (NBC, 9/9). However,
"without prompting," in a N.Y. TIMES interview, Robertson
defended Dole's "conservative bona fides, rejecting what he said
was recent criticism that Dole was merely pandering to religious
conservatives." Robertson also "made it clear" that he
considered Dole "quite acceptable to religious conservatives,"
although the Coalition has said that "they will not endorse" any
of the pres. candidates. Robertson: "I don't think Bob Dole is
being some kind of chameleon. [He's been a] life long
conservative." Robertson praised Gramm as well, but said, "I
still think it's Dole's to lose. I don't see right now, any
other candidates emerging" (Niebuhr, N.Y. TIMES, 9/11). ABC's
Hal Bruno, asked which candidate won the most support at the
conference: "It was somewhat divided. Going in, Pat Buchanan and
Phil Gramm had the most support among this group because where
they stand on the issues is closest to where the conservative
Christians are. But Senator Dole has also turned in a very
conservative direction, and he has had some appeal with them"
("GMA," ABC, 9/11).
REED REACTS: Coalition exec. dir. Ralph Reed, asked if it
would hurt Dole if he does not sign a pro-life plank pledge: "I
don't really know what the outcome of that will be, because it
just happened the other day, but I think that Senator Dole has
indicated that he may sign it later. He's indicated that he is
committed to the pro-life plank" (CNN, 9/10). Reed has tried to
"downplay" the abortion issue as of late in order to "broaden"
the organization's appeal (Shepard, COX/AUSTIN-AMERICAN
STATESMAN, 9/9). More Reed, asked if the GOP nominee must sign a
pledge to support a constitutional amendment to ban all
abortions: "I don't think any of us really knows what the end
game is going to be. But if [the GOPers] want to continue
that momentum going into '96 it's based on a three legged stool.
One leg of that stool is the traditional message of lower taxes
and balanced budgets. The second leg of that stool is the Perot
message of term limits and political reform. And the third leg
of that stool is the pro-life and pro-family stand" (CNN, 9/10).
NATIONAL BRIEFING
*9 PACKWOOD: HE'S GONE 10/1; ROTH TO HEAD FINANCE
Sen. Bob Packwood (R-OR), yielding to Dems "incensed by his
continued leadership role and even his presence" in Senate
matters, said he would leave the Senate by 10/1. He also stepped
down as Finance Cmte chair; both decisions were "recommended" by
Senate Maj. Leader Bob Dole, whose spokesperson said Packwood
would be succeeded as chair by Sen. Bill Roth (R-DE). The fixed
date of Packwood's resignation came after Dole started a
firestorm by saying that he may need up to 90 days to stay on and
finish up his work (see HOTLINE, 9/8). Dems, led by Min. Leader
Tom Daschle, said this was unacceptable, and without a firm
timetable were talking of forcing a vote on Packwood's expulsion
(Chen, L.A. TIMES, 9/10). N.Y. TIMES' Seelye speculates that
Dole wanted Packwood to stay on for an assortment of reasons,
including (1) Packwood "provides a reliable Republican vote;" (2)
the more time that can elapse between the special election and
the "sordid revelations" of Packwood's diaries, the "better the
Republicans' chances of keeping the seat;" and (3) Dole wanted to
keep Packwood on the Finance cmte so there would be no room for
Dole rival Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX), who seeks appointment to the
cmte. Dole was "applauded" by members of the Christian Coalition
when he announced Packwood's 10/1 departure date, but he "did not
mention that he had tried to delay Mr. Packwood's departure by 90
days" (9/9).
THE WORD ON ROTH: The 74-year old Roth is "known as a team
player" and is an "ardent tax-cutter who lacks his predecessor's
ambivalence about the bold reform agenda championed by
conservative House Republicans" (Chandler, W. POST, 9/9). U.S.
NEWS' Roberts writes he is a "more timid lawmaker who is far less
likely to assert his independence from conservative orthodoxy"
(9/18 issue). And SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER's Connelly notes
that Roth is "known more for his trademark toupee than the brain
beneath it" (9/8).
NIXON PARALLELS: Writing in the NEW YORKER, Alan Brinkley
says that Packwood's resignation "has many similarities to
Richard Nixon's tortured departure from the White House" in '74:
"Like Nixon, Packwood remained in office long after his
reputation was destroyed, and resigned only when his last
remaining supporters abandoned him. Like Nixon, he meticulously
recorded incriminating information and then tried to suppress and
alter it. Like Nixon, he denied his offenses to the end, tried
to discredit his accusers, and relied heavily on procedural and
legal arguments to avoid facing the substance of the charges
against him. Like Nixon, he insisted that he was resigning for
the good of the country" (9/18 issue). Also, Packwood first won
election to the Senate in '68, the same year Nixon won the
presidency.
CLINTON CASE: In a W. TIMES op-ed, Landmark Legal
Foundation's Mark Levin writes that while he does "not speak as a
special pleader" for Packwood, "there is something amiss when
President Clinton is held to a lower ethical standard than"
Packwood. "Mr. Clinton insists to a federal court that no less
than the United States Constitution stands between him and the
sexual harassment charges he faces. The president says he's
immune from such bothersome lawsuits, even though the phrase
'presidential immunity' is nowhere to be found in the
Constitution. Mr. Clinton is charged, in court, of exposing
himself and rubbing his hand on the inside of his accuser's leg.
While Mr. Packwood's accusers were treated with respect and
presumed truthful, the young lady who sued Mr. Clinton is
portrayed as politically motivated and generally disparaged.
What about it, Mrs. [Sen. Barbara] Boxer? Why not go to the
Senate floor today and demand that the president answer the
charges under oath?" (9/8). Christian Action Network Pres.
Martin Mawyer: "As Senator Packwood has been forced to resign
over allegations almost twenty years old then President
Clinton should be subject to impeachment hearings over the Paula
Jones allegations, which are less than five years old and have
standing. This proposal will be met with derision for Bill
Clinton's slavish minions in the national media, since they led
the witch hunt against Senator Packwood, but the fairness of this
argument cannot be denied" (release, 9/7).
*10 PACKWOOD: PUNDITS GET IN THEIR LAST LICKS
Al Hunt: "Packwood's behavior was disgraceful.
The
Senate Ethics Committee dragged its feet on this case and
they only turned to expulsion when he became a visible political
embarrassment. This is a decision that's going to come back
to haunt them because it was less an act of courage then of
expediency." Bob Novak: "God forbid that any of us should
have their life and their fate in the hands in the Senate Ethics
Committee." NATIONAL REVIEW's Kate O'Beirne: "He ultimately did
what was really unforgivable which was make his colleagues climb
out a branch for him and then he sawed it off. They were only
forced to act because it became politically embarrassing" ("Cap.
Gang," CNN, 9/9). ABC's Julie Johnson: "If you really look at
this, in any other work place in America were the behavior to be
this that's described in the Packwood diaries, the individual
would have been fired without the benefit of the $80,000 year
pension lifetime benefit" ("Brinkley," ABC, 9/10). Jack Germond:
"That scene in the Senate, the emotional scene, is a classic
example of the hypocrisy of these clowns at their worst. They
were all so mad at him. They were fed up with the guy. The
Senate is finally going to stumble into the 20th Century."
Eleanor Clift: "His behavior has been truly despicable, but the
Senate basically was acting in their own self-interest"
("McLaughlin Group," 9/9). Mona Charen: "This draconian
punishment really has an odor of PC about it." Howard Fineman:
"What they really did here was equate sexual misconduct with
treason. He made them do it. He said, 'You've got to get me
out of here or I'm going to ruin the Senate." Juan Williams:
"People take the message that it's something, this larger
statement about sexual harassment in society, in fact, it's a
statement about the club still protecting itself" ("Cap. Gang
Sunday," CNN, 9/10). Barnes, on the level of political damage to
the GOP: "Minimal, compared to what it might have been had they
had lurid, weeks-long, public hearings on national TV. It would
have impede the Republican agenda and blotted out every other
story in the country, probably including even the O.J. Simpson
trial." Morton Kondracke: "This complicates Dole's life
enormously. He's going to have to, in effect, run the Finance
committee. What this means is that there's more likelihood
that there will be a train wreck." Barnes said that Dole "has an
opportunity now to step in, he ought to call a time-out in his
presidential campaign and say, 'I'm going to spend the next eight
weeks in Washington. The agenda there is much more important"
("McLaughlin Group," 9/9). Lamar Alexander: "He did the right
thing to resign and the Senate can get on to what it ought to be
doing" ("IP," CNN, 9/8).
*11 HOW'S IT PLAYING: EDITORIALS ON PACKWOOD
ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT GAZETTE: Packwood "did the honorable
thing. [However,] if it is not fit that the distinguished
lout from Oregon remain in the Senate chamber, does the Knight of
Chappaquiddick belong there? That is something else for the
gentlemen and ethicists of the Senate to consider -- if they can
remember who Mary Jo Kopechne was, and might have been" (9/10).
Balto. SUN: "While expulsion would have been excessive if
judged solely on the past record, the public now demands much
higher standards for performance in public office and behavior in
the workplace" (9/8).
BOSTON GLOBE: "Packwood's sordid saga was particularly
anguishing for women, many of whom had supported him because it
was so rare to have a Republican defender of women's rights.
Many puzzled how he could publicly respect women while demeaning
them with his private acts" (9/8).
BOSTON HERALD header: "Good riddance, Packwood" (9/8).
CHICAGO TRIBUNE: "The larger question is whether the
decision by the ethics committee reflects the arrival of a higher
moral standard in Congress or just another case of political
expediency. The circumstances, unfortunately, suggest the
latter. The unexpected bomb dropped by the committee suggests
that the Senate leadership simply decided it had to be rid of
Packwood before he bled any more on his fellow senators" (9/8).
DAILY ASTORIAN [OR]: "It is absurd to refer to Packwood as
a brilliant legislator, as many are. He was, first and foremost,
a political blackmailer and a shakedown artist. Oregonians --
ill served and embarrassed by this man -- can rightly say: Good
riddance" (9/11).
DES MOINES REGISTER, under the header, "Start packing,
Senator": "What happened to doing the honorable thing? Why is
he making his resignation effective on Oct. 1, rather than today?
If Packwood worked for a corporation, the company guards
already would have come to escort him from the building. His
continued presence is intolerable" (9/9).
N.Y. DAILY NEWS: "There are those who think that kissing,
fondling and groping unwilling women is small stuff on the crime
index. But even if you could buy that -- and it would take a
leap of faith -- it would be difficult to be as generous in
considering Packwood's other offenses. He has lost the
integrity necessary to make law for law-abiding citizens. If he
ever had it" (9/8).
N.Y. POST: "The principal charges against Bob Packwood turn
on boorish behavior -- some of which took place more than 25
years ago in an entirely different social and cultural climate.
The unhappy reality is that lots of men who drank too much in the
1960s and 1970s conducted themselves as did Packwood. It's
distressing that the mere allegation of gray-area sexual
misconduct has become an automatic knockout punch -- sufficient,
in most circumstances, to run men out of public life. The Senate
has dishonored itself in its treatment of Bob Packwood" (9/8).
N.Y. TIMES: "Packwood should be given a proper chance to
pack his belongings. But that does not require him to remain as
a sitting senator for the next three weeks. His resignation
should be effective immediately. The idea that he will be
allowed to participate in Senate debates and cast votes on
critical national issues for even another day demeans the
institution and insults the public" (9/9).
Portland OREGONIAN: "These glimpses into the mind of one of
the nation's most important political figures will further demean
the reputation of the Senate among many of the public. But also
note this: The diaries came to light only because the Senate's
own ethics committee fought for and then released the relevant
portions. Future historians may well look back and see the
Packwood case as the watershed moment when the Senate came to
grips with disgraceful conduct" (9/10).
RICHMOND TIMES-DISPATCH: "Packwood's reputation probably
lies beyond public redemption. But at least his resignation
spares continuing embarrassment to the Senate, to his party, and
to the people of the state whose interests he presumed to serve"
(9/9).
SYRACUSE HERALD-JOURNAL: "He is resigning, but the stunning
thing is Packwood still doesn't get it. Almost three years after
17 women came forward and articulated the pain he caused them
Packwood calls what he did 'over-eagerly kissing.' [The case]
is a lesson to Packwood's current colleagues and those who may
seek office in the future. 'Over-eagerly kissing' is harassment.
Harassment is a crime. It will no longer be tolerated or
overlooked" (9/8).
USA TODAY: "The Ethics Committee's abrupt call for
expulsion after a plodding investigation left open a question:
What changed the senators' minds? Was the ultimate offense
that of violating the clubbiness of the Senate: Thou shalt not
embarrass a fellow senator?" (9/8).
W. POST: "Packwood's diary tells us about a lot more than
his sexual practices. It is also an indictment of the way
elected officials fiddle with, skirt and violate the laws that
are supposed to regulate the flow of political money into
campaigns. Senators are falling over themselves to argue that
the resolution of the Packwood case shows that a new day has come
to Capitol Hill in the matter of sexual harassment. They should
do the same about the corruption that is now a routine part of
elections" (9/10).
*12 HOTLINE ROLODEX: SUING THE STEPHANO-POLICE; THE NEW FANZINES
Peter Papps, Asst. U.S. Atty for NH and a lifelong friend of
Senior Clinton Adviser George Stephanopoulos, "said he will file
a civil rights complaint" against DC police after witnessing
Stephanopoulos' traffic arrest. Stephanopoulos was led away in
handcuffs at about 11:45pm 9/7 from a Georgetown street; he was
charged with fleeing the scene of an accident and driving with an
expired license. Stephanopoulos said the charge of fleeing was
ridiculous: "Do you know where my car was when I was supposedly
fleeing the scene? In the parking space, stopped." DC police
sources told the W. Post the arresting officers were "overzealous
and in error" and that the charges would likely be dropped at
Stephanopoulos' 9/18 court date. Papps, a self-described
"conservative Republican," on the arresting officer: "I'm looking
at him thinking, 'Is he a real cop?" Papps "said he is
questioning his own faith in police conduct after the experience"
(West, NH SUNDAY NEWS, 9/10).
GEORGE: CNN's "Reliable Sources" had some harsh reviews for
GEORGE, JFK Jr.'s new political mag. Ellen Hume: "Just what the
world always needed, more political pinups. They should have
opened up a restaurant instead." W. POST's Howard Kurtz: "With a
couple of exceptions, this was really low-calorie journalism.
I guess some of this is for people who find People magazine too
taxing." U.S. NEWS' Steve Roberts: "It's pretty damn thin."
SCRIPPS HOWARD's Martin Schramm: "It's politics for the first-
time voter. It's a primer in that sense." Bernard Kalb:
"Looking through this magazine was like attending a party in the
Hamptons. Lots of name dropping" (9/10). NEWSWEEK's Kaplan is
much more generous to John Jr. after his press conference
performance: "Unlike the exam, this time he cleared the bar on
his first attempt" (9/18 issue).
WEEKLY STANDARD: U.S. NEWS' Steve Roberts: "This is a damn
good thing that we have this magazine. It's a cause for
celebration. This is going to be an important magazine.
We're all going to have to read it because this is where the
energy and the ideas in Washington are." SCRIPPS HOWARD's Martin
Schramm: "This is being run essentially by a White House
Republican staff in exile. These guys all want to go back in and
run one more president. They interview presidential
candidates, pick the one they want, and then make them
President." Ellen Hume: "The Standard is a serious magazine, and
I welcome it, and I plan to subscribe to it. It's actually had a
very strong first issue. We learn things from it" ("Reliable
Sources," CNN, 9/10).
*13 COVER TO COVER
TIME: Photo: Colin Powell. Text: "Colin Powell: An American
Journey" (9/18 issue).
NEWSWEEK: Photo: Elderly woman in wheel chair painfully held
aloft by struggling yuppie. Text: "Mediscare. Get Ready to Get
Less: The attack on Medicare. Young vs. Old: Who will carry the
burden?" (9/18 issue).
U.S. NEWS: "America's Best Colleges: 1996 Annual Guide"
(9/18 issue).
WEEKLY STANDARD: Drawing: Newt Gingrich swinging just above
scorching flames that seem to have reached the seat of his pants,
firing an automatic weapon with a belt of bullets draped about
his shoulder and carrying a brief case that's been thrown open
releasing a knife, a pen and a series of papers." Text:
"Permanent Offense" (9/18 issue).
BUSINESS WEEK: "Management Meccas" (9/18 issue).
CAMPAIGNS OF '95
*14 BALTIMORE MAYOR: RACE TIGHTENS; GOTV IS KEY TOMORROW
Balto. SUN/WMAR-TV poll, conducted 9/7-8 by Mason-Dixon PMR,
surveyed 620 likely Dem primary voters; margin of error +/- 4%
(SUN, 9/10). Tested: Mayor Kurt Schmoke, City Council pres. Mary
Pat Clarke, watertaxi driver Kelley Brohawn. Three candidates
are also running in the GOP primary. Primary 9/12.
NOW
8/95
DEM PRIMARY ALL BLK WHT
ALL
Schmoke
47%
74%
14%
43%
Clarke
43 14 78
37
Brohawn
1
1
1
--
Undec.
9 11 7
20
Pollster Brad Coker: "It's a very close, competitive race."
Johns Hopkins' Matthew Crenson: "What's going to count is
turnout. The candidate who gets his vote to the polls wins."
Clarke: "It feels as though we have the momentum here, that
people are coming together on wanting change." Schmoke, who is
seeking a 3rd term: "It means I'm going to win. Every poll I've
seen indicates I'm ahead." About 80% said the endorsements of
the Balto. SUN for Clarke and Gov. Parris Glendening (D) for
Schmoke would have no effect on their vote (SUN, 9/10). SUN
header: "Candidates offer stark contrast in their views of city."
Subhead: "Schmoke perceives city as on the rise; Clarke see
decline" (9/10).
SENATE WATCH
*15 COLORADO: STRICKLAND IS IN, SAYS ROMER IS NOT
Denver atty Tom Strickland (D) filed candidacy papers for
the seat of retiring Sen. Hank Brown (R). Strickland, who has
not sought elective office before, will make a formal
announcement next month. He could face "some tough competition"
from ex-Sen. Gary Hart (D), should Hart run, as well as from Gov.
Roy Romer (D). But Strickland said Romer had "assured him he
will not enter the race." In addition, Romer's son will serve as
Strickland's finance chair. Strickland insisted that his "lack
of experience in public office won't be a liability" and noted
that he has previously chaired the CO Metropolitan Transportation
Development Commission and worked as then-Gov. Dick Lamm's (D)
policy and research director (Kerwin, ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS, 9/8).
Other announced candidates: AG Gale Norton (R), Jerry Brown CO
campaign manager Phil Perington (D) and state Sen. Paul Weissmann
(D). Other possibles/likelies: Denver councilmember Ramona
Martinez (D), Univ/CO Law School Dean Gene Nichol (D), Rep. Wayne
Allard (R-04), ex-Sec/State Mary Estill Buchanan (R), atty Bill
Eggert (R) and state Sen. Charlie Duke (R).
*16 IOWA: TINSMAN JOINS THE GOP FIELD TO CHALLENGE HARKIN
State Sen. Maggie Tinsman (R) officially entered the race
for the GOP nomination on 9/7, joining state Rep. Steve Grubbs
(R); the winner faces Sen. Tom Harkin (D) in '96. Tinsman, who
is pro-choice and anti-death penalty, "must mobilize the moderate
wing of the party to win the GOP nomination;" Grubbs is pro-life
and pro-death penalty. Tinsman said that experience is the "key
difference" between the her and Grubbs: "He's the minimum age of
30 years old. He hasn't had much time to have a lot of
experiences" (Kerwin, DES MOINES REGISTER, 9/8). Tinsman, asked
if she is out of the GOP mainstream on abortion: "The Republican
Party is broad enough to appeal to a variety of people. My
appeal is on more critical issues, such as balancing the budget"
(Smiley, OMAHA WORLD-HERALD, 9/8). Other possible: Rep. Jim
Nussle (R-02).
*17 MICHIGAN: DAVE WILL NOT CAMP OUT IN SENATE RACE
Rep. Dave Camp (R-04), ending weeks of speculation, said 9/8
he would not seek the GOP Senate nomination. Camp cited his work
in the House as the only MI GOPer on Ways and Means: "Achieving
our legislative goals this fall is critical. We are involved in
some of the most important debates Congress has had in a long
time. 1 want to give my full and undivided attention to these
important issues." Camp would have given up a "safe-seat" and a
"choice committee assignment" to join an "uphill battle" for the
nomination. Talk-show host/'94 Sen. primary cand. Ronna Romney
(R) is "better known" in MI and raised more money than Camp in
the first half of '95. Camp's decision "leaves the door open for
a Western Michigan Republican, such as State Sen. William Van
Regenmorter." Regenmorter, who has "expressed interest" in the
race, is not up for re-election and would not have to give up his
seat in order to run. He plans to decide "within a week"
(Selinger, DETROIT NEWS, 9/9). The Romney campaign contends that
Camp's decision will sustain their "momentum" because Camp, like
Romney, is "conservative and pro-life." Romney: "I have always
had a great deal of respect and admiration for Dave. His
message of lower taxes, reduced spending, and less government
regulation is also my message" (Romney release, 9/8). Sen. Carl
Levin (D) is seeking a fourth term. Announced GOPer: Businessman
Jim Nicholson. Other possible GOPers: Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-02)
and ex-Rep. Bill Schuette. Dem: Chrysler Corp. exec. Edward
Hamilton.
*18 NEW JERSEY: TORRICELLI SENDS A MESSAGE
Rep. Bob Torricelli (D-09) has formed an exploratory cmte in
preparation of a bid for the seat of retiring Sen. Bill Bradley
(D) in '96. Torricelli, the first Dem to take such action, did
so "in a bid to head off a primary fight." The cmte, "a show of
organizational strength," includes 48 mayors and other local
elected officials. Officials from several counties, including
Hudson Co., of which Torricelli represents a portion, did not
join the cmte because Rep. Robert Menendez (D-13) also is
"considering" a run. Menendez said he has asked Hudson Dems to
"hold off making any endorsements;" he will make a decision by
the end of the month. Ex-Gov. Jim Florio (D), also considering a
run, "said he will use speaking engagements, radio appearances
and newspaper columns to 'generate ideas and discussions' that
could lay the foundation for a race." Florio also would like to
see the results of a poll conducted by Rutgers' Eagleton Inst. of
Politics. The poll will show if the "anti-Florio sentiment
triggered by his $2.8 billion tax hike has died down."
Torricelli, who has "made it clear" he will run, used the
exploratory event to "portray the race as a clear choice between
him and his likely opponent," Rep. Dick Zimmer (R-12).
Torricelli "painted himself as a moderate in step with New Jersey
voters and Zimmer in the mold" of Speaker Newt Gingrich. Zimmer
then accused Torricelli of "engaging in politics of smear"
(Kiely, Bergen RECORD, 9/7). Other announced cand.: Passaic Co.
Freeholder Richard DuHaime (R). Other possible GOPers: state
Sen. Richard LaRossa (R), Rep. Marge Roukema (R-05) and state
Sen. Bill Gormley (R). Other possible Dems: Rep. Rob Andrews (D-
09), Cherry Hill Mayor Susan Bass Levin (D), state Sen. John
Lynch (D), state Sen. John Adler (D), Assemblyman Neil Cohen (D)
and Morris Co. prosecutor Michael Murphy (D).
*19 OREGON: IS ANYONE NOT RUNNING?
The first open Senate race here in 29 years has raised the
possibility that all five members of the state's House delegation
may run for Bob Packwood's (R) soon-to-be-vacated seat. It is,
of course, a risk-free proposition -- they don't have to give up
their House seats to make the race -- and thus all five have
either declared or are "considering" a candidacy. The first
House member to announce was five-term Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-04)
(see HOTLINE, 9/8); he was followed by two-term "liberal" Rep.
Elizabeth Furse (D-01) on 9/8 and eight-term "veteran liberal"
Rep. Ron Wyden (D-03) on 9/10. Furse has "already drawn the
attention of national women's groups." If Gov. John Kitzhaber
(D) sets the election date more than 80 days after Packwood's
10/1 resignation date, there will be primaries to pick the Dem
and GOP nominees. If the special election is within 80 days, the
party central cmtes will choose their nominees. Sellwood, OR Dem
precinct captain Peggy Roth: "If it's a primary process, I think
Ron Wyden has the name recognition and the money to give anyone a
run for their money. If it's an internal committee process, it
will be a more even playing field." Other possible Dems include
businessman Harry Lonsdale and ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts.
Lonsdale, a strong environmentalist who lost to Sen. Mark
Hatfield (R) in '90 and narrowly lost the '92 Dem primary, had
earlier declared his candidacy against Hatfield for '96. On the
GOP side, there is evidence the field "could narrow this week."
Frosh Rep. Jim Bunn (R-05), a "conservative" who was expected to
announce his decision on 9/11, said "he needed more time to
decide." Camille Hukari, the chair of the "powerful" AG-PAC
agricultural group, "pleaded" with another possible
"conservative" GOPer, frosh Rep. Wes Cooley (R-02), to stay in
the House rather than run for the Senate. She said Cooley is
doing a "fine job" but predicted the GOP nominee will be
"conservative" state Senate Pres. Gordon Smith, "hands down."
Hukari "said conservatives didn't want to see a repeat of the
last gubernatorial campaign, in which the Republicans fielded
conservative [ex-Rep.] Denny Smith -- who couldn't pick up needed
Portland-metro area votes" and lost badly to Kitzhaber. Hukari:
"We have to consider who can win. You've got to have statewide
appeal. Gordon has statewide appeal. He would be able to
beat the Democrat. He's got charisma, he's got the experience,
he's got the farming background" (Suo, Portland OREGONIAN, 9/10).
Earlier, Cooley said he would run, but only if the nominee was to
be chosen by the GOP cmte, not in a primary. As for Bunn, he
said he continues to be "extremely interested in joining this
race," but that he feels he needs "more time to carefully
consider all the issues involved" (Bunn release, 9/9). Other
possible GOPers: Denny Smith, state Schools Supt./'86 gov.
nominee Norma Paulus, '94 CD-01 cand. Bill Witt, state Labor
Commis. Jack Roberts, and real estate broker Ron Sunseri.
DEMS THE WORD: Furse, a co-founder of the Oregon Peace
Institute and a "champion" of abortion rights, "played up her
relative inexperience": "I am not a career politician. I never
have been a never wanted to be." Her '92 win was her first
elected office; she won re-election in '94 by 301 votes over
Witt. Wyden, pushing for a primary, said "that Oregonians
wouldn't like the nominees chosen in the political backrooms."
Roberts, who declined to seek re-election in '94, said she would
decide this week; she'd be "more inclined to run" if there was a
primary election: "I have won three general elections in the
state. Of the field of announced candidates, none have won a
statewide race." At least three prominent Dems said they are
staying out of the race -- Kitzhaber, ex-Gov. Neil Goldschmidt
and Portland Mayor Vera Katz (Mapes, OREGONIAN, 9/9).
ON THE HOUSE
*20 CA 15: MINETA TO QUIT CONGRESS FOR LOCKHEED JOB
Rep. Norm Mineta (D), "one of the nation's most powerful
Asian-American leaders," will announce his resignation today,
effective 10/10, in order to take a VP post with Lockheed Martin
Corp. His departure is "certain to touch off a free-for-all" for
his seat; it will be a "fierce battleground as Republicans
salivate over their first clear shot at a district redrawn twice
since Mineta won it [in '74] and easily held it for two decades."
Gov. Pete Wilson (R) has 14 days to call for a special election.
The primary is likely to be held sometime in 1/96 and the special
election probably coinciding with the 3/26/96 pres. primary. The
CD is 46% Dem, 38% GOP. For his part, Mineta "insisted he's not
scurrying from a sinking ship": "I think the Democrats are in a
very good position because the overreach of what the Republicans
are doing is going to be felt by the public. But is there
going to be a reversal [from the '94 results] in the 1996
elections? I don't think so." Even before Mineta's surprise
decision, Karla Dowdy (R), a West Valley-Mission College District
Board member who lost a '94 state Assembly race, said she was
running. Possible Dems: Santa Clara Co. Supervisors Mike Honda &
Jim Beall and ex-Supervisor Rod Diridon. Potential GOPer:
Assemblyman Jim Cunneen (Parragher, SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS, 9/11).
*21 IL 02: THE SON ALSO ANNOUNCES
Rainbow Coalition national field dir. Jesse Jackson Jr.
formally announced his bid for the "soon-to-be-vacated" seat of
Rep. Mel Reynolds (D). "As if there was any doubt whose
reputation he would be riding," Jackson entered the Salem Baptist
Church to the "strains of a new song: 'Jesse Jackson Jr., he's
the one, the reverend's son, to be a congressman." After a 75-
minute introduction that included two songs from his sister,
Santita, and comments from his father, the younger Jackson spoke
of "restoring the tarnished image" of the second district
(Grumman, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 9/10). While he "welcomed his
father's support," Jackson said he expects to be elected on his
own merits: "God has blessed me with a good name, a good name
whose good works I intend to extend. But I neither seek nor
expect any 'gimmes.' This is a democracy, not a royal
lineage. I intend to work and earn your trust." Jackson said he
will work for an "urban policy with incentives to reinvest in
America, to put America back to work at livable wages" (AP/Balto.
SUN, 9/10).
SPECIAL ELECTION DATE: Gov. Jim Edgar (R) is expected to
announce the date of the special election by 9/13. By law he
must establish a primary date at least 72 days after Reynolds
leaves office on 10/1; a special general election must be held
before 1/1 (Hardy, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 9/10).
LABOR LIKES PALMER: The Service Employees International
Union (SEIU) Joint Council #1, which represents 75,000 workers in
IL, endorsed state Sen. Alice Palmer and gave her campaign $5,000
(release, 9/9). Other Dems: state Sen. Min. Leader Emil Jones,
state Sen. Bill Shaw and state Rep. Monique Davis.
TV MONITOR
*22 THIS MORNING: ABC's "GMA" hosted ABC political dir. Hal
Bruno. "FOX Morning News" hosted ex-RNC chair Frank Fahrenkopf,
Dem consultant Kiki Moore and W. TIMES' Donald Lambro.
SUNDAY: NBC's "Meet the Press" hosted Speaker Newt
Gingrich. CBS' "Face the Nation" hosted Bob Packwood, Sen. Maj.
Whip Trent Lott and Christian Coalition exec. dir. Ralph Reed.
CNN's "Late Edition" hosted Lott and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).
CNN's "Crossfire Sunday" hosted CO Gov. Roy Romer (D) and Dole
co-chair/ex-MN Rep. Vin Weber. C-SPAN's "Sunday Journal" hosted
THE WEEKLY STANDARD's Bill Kristol and ex-DNC Chair David
Wilhelm.
PREDICTIONS: Fred Barnes: "If Colin Powell runs for
President, he'll do it as a Republican." Eleanor Clift: "His
book tour is going to be a primary tour and he's going to be
really pressed to say what he believes in. We may find out that
he doesn't have any strong beliefs." Jack Germond: "Packwood's
gone by Monday." Morton Kondrake: "Colin Powell will run for
President as an Independent." John McLaughlin: "The dismissed
indictment of Arkansas Governor Jim Guy Tucker will be
reinstated" ("McLaughlin Group," 9/9).
LAUGHS: Jay Leno, on the possibility Bob Packwood would
remain in office for 90 days: "He figures it will take him that
long to go around and kiss everyone goodbye." Leno, on George
Stephanopoulos' arrest: "Police said right away they knew it wa a
member of the Clinton White House. The car was in the far left
lane, it kept going around in circles, and it ended up in the
same place where it left" ("Tonight Show," NBC, 9/8).
TOP TEN SURPRISES IN THE PACKWOOD DIARIES
10. Often writes letters to "Penthouse" signed "Packing Wood in
Washington."
9. Had a brief sexual encounter with the Liberty Bell.
8. Those creepy Calvin Klein commercials? Packwood's idea.
7. Admits to having a schoolgirl crush on Phil Gramm.
6. Woke up naked one morning in the lap of the Abraham Lincoln
statue.
5. Once broke into Frank Perdue warehouse and spent entire
weekend groping chicken parts.
4. Has recurring dream where he gets to second base with Betsey
Ross.
3. Once cold-cocked by Janet Reno.
2. Refers to his tongue as "the ethics probe."
1. Has had more sex on his desk than Newt Gingrich
("Late Show," CBS, 9/8).
TV SOUNDBITE
"My advice to anybody in the future who is a rational person,
who is a conservative or a moderate, is just don't allow
Gail Sheehy to interview you because you will be savaged."
-- Newt Gingrich, "Meet the Press," NBC, 9/10
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