Ask the Scholar

Document scope · 1 page
doc
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory. For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.

Scholar Source Context

Document identity
localId
470417607
label
Friday, February 21, 1992 [3]
core
doc
dtoType
document
pageCount
1
Source metadata
Source extras
naId
470417607
coverageEndDate
day
21
logicalDate
1992-02-21
month
2
year
1992
coverageStartDate
day
21
logicalDate
1992-02-21
month
2
year
1992
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
e13d56d627eee208
ocrText
Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 2009-0166-S 2009-0166-S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Office of the President Series: Daily Files Subseries: OA/ID Number: 90655 Folder ID Number: 90655-006 Folder Title: Friday, February 21, 1992 [3] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: V 0 0 0 0 Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Doc. No. / Type Subject/Title Date Restriction Classification 01a. Memo From Command Duty Officer to Distriution Re: Visit Report for 02/23/92 (b)(7)(e) 21-23 February 1992 [redaction] (2 pp.) 01b. List Visit Report for 21-23 February 1992: Cabin Assignments (1 pp.) 02/24/92 (b)(7)(c), (b)(7)(e), (b)(7)(f) 01c. List Visit Report for 21-23 February 1992:Helo Manifest 02/24/92 (b)(7)(e) (Staff/Guests) [redaction] (1 pp.) 02. Note From L. M. Cook to George Bush Re: political opinons (1 pp.) 02/19/92 C Page 1 of 1 Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Office of the President Series: Daily Files Subseries: WHORM Cat.: File Location: Friday, February 21, 1992 [3] Pinksheet Number: dw2502 OA/ID Number: 90655-006 Date Closed: 10/21/2014 FOIA/Sys Case #: 2009-0166-S Re-review Case #: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 01a. Memo From Command Duty Officer to Distriution Re: Visit Report 02/23/92 (b)(7)(e) for 21-23 February 1992 [redaction] (2 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Office of the President Series: Daily Files Subseries: WHORM Cat.: File Location: Friday, February 21, 1992 [3] Date Closed: 10/21/2014 OA/ID Number: 90655-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 2009-0166-S Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. 23 Feb 92 MEMORANDUM From: Command Duty Officer To: Distribution Via: (1) Executive Officer (2) Commanding Officer Subj: VISIT REPORT FOR 21-23 FEBRUARY 1992 Encl: (1) Cabin assignments (2) Holo manifest (3) Arrivals/departures access list 1. Enclosures (1) through (3) provide added details for the subject Presidential visit. ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES Friday, 21 February 1992 1453 - MSCM Ariel Deguzman (WHSM) and Paula Rendon aboard. (C2) 1953 - NIGHTHAWK TWO touchdown. (H2) 1958 - MARINE ONE touchdown with the (b)(7)(e) 2325 - First Lady aboard via Motorcade. (M1) Bush Presidential Library Photocopy Saturday, 22 February 1992 0537 - Carpet vehicle #24 aboard with newspapers and two packages for the First Lady and the President's personal briefcase. 0607 - Carpet vehicle #24 ashore. 1130 - Doro, Ellie, Sam Leblond and Bobby Koch aboard. (P1) 1130 - The Koch family aboard. (P2-P6) 1555 - The Koch family ashore. (P2-P6) Sunday, 23 February 1992 0520 - Carpet vehicle #23 aboard with newspapers. 0528 - Carpet vehicle #23 ashore. 0715 - MAJ Deken (Chaplain) aboard. (P7) 0814 - MAJ Deken (Chaplain) ashore. (P7) 1325 - MSCM Ariel Deguzman (WHSM) and Paula Rendon ashore. (C2) 1609 - MARINE ONE ashore with the (b)(7)(e) 1611 - NIGHTHAWK TWO ashore. (H4) 1624 - Doro, Ellie, Sam Leblond, Bobby Koch and George Koch ashore. (P1) GUEST ACTIVITIES Movies Aspen: Saturday - "Blame it on the Bellboy" The staff/guests checked out 11 beta videos during the visit. Wye Oak Mrs. Bush used the lifecycle on Saturday and Sunday morning. Golf Mrs. Bush used the driving range on Saturday. President Bush and Bush Presidential Library Photocopy Mr. Koch used the Aspen range on Saturday. Bowling Camp David Lanes were used extensively on Saturday and Sunday by the grandchildren, guests, and staff. Golf Carts The President and guest used the carts for tours on Saturday. The President toured the perimeter and fitness trails throughout the weekend on his golf cart. Horseshoes The President and staff pitched horseshoes on Sunday morning, TCD 24 '02 7:20 NGT THURMONT, MD PAGE.00 Jogging The President jogged the fitness trail on Saturday and Sunday. Tennis Doro Leblond and Bobby Koch played tennis on Sunday afternoon. Chapel Services Chaplain Deken conducted a Catholic service at 0730. Three persons were in attendance. Chaplain Frusti conducted an interdenomin- ational service at 0900 in the Chapel. The President, First Lady, family, staff and crew members and their dependents attended for a total of 65. KUDOS Navy - E01 LEMMOND Marines - LCPL JONES very Full respectfully, P. F. WEBB LT, CEC, USN Distribution: CO XO Dept Heads Visit File OOD Passdown Log Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 01b. List Visit Report for 21-23 February 1992: Cabin Assignments 02/24/92 (b)(7)(c), (b)(7)(e), (1 pp.) (b)(7)(f) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Office of the President Series: Daily Files Subseries: WHORM Cat.: File Location: Friday, February 21, 1992 [3] Date Closed: 10/21/2014 OA/ID Number: 90655-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 2009-0166-S Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 01c. List Visit Report for 21-23 February 1992:Helo Manifest 02/24/92 (b)(7)(e) (Staff/Guests) [redaction] (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Office of the President Series: Daily Files Subseries: WHORM Cat.: File Location: Friday, February 21, 1992 [3] Date Closed: 10/21/2014 OA/ID Number: 90655-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 2009-0166-S Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. HELO MANIFEST (STAFF/GUESTS) HELO #1 (ARRIVE 1958/FRIDAY) HELO #2 (ARRIVE 1953/FRIDAY) NIGHTHAWK TWO MARINE ONE (b)(7)(e) (b)(7)(e) HELO #3 (DEPART 1609/SUNDAY) HELO #4 (DEPART 1611/SUNDAY) NIGHTHAWK TWO MARINE ONE (b)(7)(e) (b)(7)(e) Bush Presidential Library Photocopy FCD 24 '02 7:01 NOT THURMONT, MD PACE.00 POV (STAFF/GUESTS) CODE NAME TITLE ARRIVE DEPART VEHICLE ID P1 DORO LEBLOND DAUGHTER 1130/SAT 1624/SUN PONTIAC ELLIE LEBIOND GRANDDAU MD 014ALV SAM LEBLOND GRANDSON BOBBY KOCH FIANCE OF DORO P2 GEORGE KOCH GUEST 1130/SAT 1555/SAT MERCEDEZ GUEST MD YAK446 HELEN KOCH JORIE KOCH GUEST LAWTON KOCH CUEST P3 DANNY KOCH GUEST 1130/SAT 1555/SAT OLDS 98 TRICIA KOCH GUEST MD 2DA354 REILLY KOCH GUEST K.C. KOCH GUEST P4 P.C. KOCH GUEST 1130/SAT 1555/SAT FORD TEMPO GUEST MD VPG776 DENISE KOCH PATRICK KOCH GUEST P5 MONTE KOCH GUEST 1130/SAT 1555/SAT MAROON GEORGE KOCH GUEST 1130/SAT OLDSMOBILE SANDI NUTTON GUEST P6 LUCY KOCH GUEST 1130/SAT 1555/SAT GRAND STEVE AMBROSI GUEST MARQUIS NY ARN117 P7 MAJ JOHN DEKEN CHAPLAIN 0715/SUN 0814/SUN CHEVY LUMINA CARPET/GOV'T VEHICLE (STAFF/GUESTS) CODE NAME TITLE ARRIVE DEPART VEHICLE ID C1 CW4 FRANK VALDEZ WHCA F/O 1335/FRI H4 WHCA VEH MAJ RICHARD WILLIAMS WHCA F/O H2 2028/FRI C2 PAULA RENDON WHSM 1453/FRI 1325/SUN WHSM VAN MSCM ARIEL DEGUZMAN MOTORCADE CODE NAME TITLE ARRIVE DEPART VEHICLE ID M1 BARBARA BUSH FIRST LADY 2325/FRI H3 MOTORCADE ** TOTAL PAGE.06 ** (FYI) Interim Patty: reply to Sam Gibbons When you have a chance, would you please match up with the copy of the President's note It should be in Dec 10 daily. (the night of the Cong'l ball) Then again, I might have pulled it to attach the incoming from Calio's ofc. If it's not there, then this is it. Hope I am making sense to you ??? !!! Robin THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON FYI THE PRESIDENT HAS SEEN February 21, 1992 Dear Sam: In response to your note to the President that was passed along at the Congressional Christmas Ball, I am writing to inform you of the status of your requests. You had requested that the President participate in an anniversary celebration of D-Day on June 6, 1994. As you can imagine, the President's schedule is very busy and the scheduling office will not consider events more than three months in advance of their occurrence. Therefore, this event is regrettably too far in the future to be considered. It will be given serious consideration at the appropriate time, however. As to whether the President will help to promote this event, we would need more information. The President's role in helping charities is circumscribed. we would need specific proposals to clear through the Office of the Counsel to the President. Likewise, the request to host a celebration at the White House to kick off fundraising must be run through the Counsel's Office and our scheduling system. The same request is in long range scheduling per a request from Congressman Montgomery, and is Bush Presidential Library Photocopy being carefully considered. Unfortunately, a meeting with the President to discuss a new revenue system for the U.S. cannot be currently scheduled, as I am sure you can appreciate. I'll be in touch. Sincerely, Mide Nicholas E. Calio Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs The Honorable Sam Gibbons U.S. House of Representatives Washington, D.C. 20515 Bush Library Photocopy George Bush Handwriting Cc: Rose Zamanie Rose: Penoing I asked if an 12/26/91 interim reply or note went out and McClure's office said HE would dis- cuss w/you person- allv. (FYI) Robin Phil: This was handed to the President at the Congressional Ball. Sorry for the delay in getting it to you. However, it got stuck with other papers. I talked with Fred McClure about it when it came in. I think he is waiting for me to send this along. The President wanted it run by Counsel and more information on the group. Fred wil touch base with Gibbons. Sorry. Thanks, MEMORANDUM 12/10/91 TO: President George Bush FROM: Sam M. Gibbons, M.C. - 202-225-3376 1. Agree to participate in the 50th anniversary of D-Day in Europe, June 6, 1994. 2. Agree to work with Normandy Foundation to support USA role in celebration to be financed by private sector contributions. 3. Host small celebration in The White House to kick off Foundation effort. 4. Meet with Gibbons to discuss new revenue for U.S. Government. system Fred maClure Clure 12/26 2/21/92 Mr. President: You will be coming back to Andrews from Charleston and then chopter to Camp David. 2) If you have Jerry Weintraub fly with you foom San Francisco to LA, the campaign will be charged first class fare, which is ($250) If you ask Jerry to pay, it will count against his maximum contribution to the campaign. 3) ATTACHED IS YOUR TENTATIVE SCHEDULE FOR CALIFORNIA. Rose Bush Presidential Library Photocopy OK- just 30 set minutes my in of LA. Bush Library Photocopy George Bush Handwriting THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 21, 1992 Dear Roy: Thank you for your newsy letter of February 19. I am dictating this before heading to South Carolina where we start moving in the Super Tuesday states. I have got to put this primary challenge to rest, and then on to victory in the Fall. How thoughtful of you to have a going away party for the Sununus -- you are too much. Thanks again for your wonderful letter. Barbara sends her love. Sincerely, Mr. Roy Pfautch President Civic Service Incorporated 60/ Suite 870, Washington Square 1050 Connecticut Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20036 JAN'S THE PRESIDENT February 21, 1992 Dear Lod, Thanks for the February 19 fax. You're right! Warmest regards, of FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON, D.C. Mr. Lodwrick M. Cook Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Atlantic Richfield Company Suite 5178 515 South Flower Street Los Angeles, California 90071 (Personal) you WH Gifts FVI THE PRESIDENT February 21, 1992 Rm. Dear Jack, Thanks for that flashy Gavinesque tie. It's a winner; but when will I get to show it off to the double breasted-blue blazer crowd on the Riviera. Anyway, I'll give it a trial run right here inside the beltway. If I don't see you in Los Angeles, call Rose Zamaria at (202) 456-6700 the next time you're in Washington. I'm sure we can carve out some time. I'd like to get caught up on all you're doing. Sincerely, G/ FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON. D.C. The Honorable John A. Gavin Suite 2415 10100 Galaxy Way Los Angeles, California 90067-3521 THE PRESIDENT February 21, 1992 Dear Jack, Thanks for that flashy Gavinesque tie. It's a winner; but when will I get to show it off to the double breasted-blue blazer crowd on the Riviera. Anyway, I'll give it a trial run right here inside the beltway. If I don't see you in Los Angeles, call Rose Zamaria at (202) 456-6700 the next time you're in Washington. I'm sure we can carve out some time. I'd like to get caught up on all you're doing. Sincerely, G/ FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON. D.C. The Honorable John A. Gavin Suite 2415 10100 Galaxy Way Los Angeles, California 90067-3521 JOHN GAVIN 10100 GALAXY WAY 2415 LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA 90067-3521 February 18, 1992 The Honorable George Bush The White House Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Mr. President: I saw a tie which made me recall the breakfast we had privately at The Four Seasons Hotel in Los Angeles in May 1988. You may remember that Barbara joined us, at which point you left the room momentarily. When you returned, you asked us what we thought of the tie you were wearing. Neither of us liked it. When you asked Barbara what she thought Vyou should wear, she said, "A tie like the one Jack has on." We switched then and there. Connie and I have the "ugly" tie as the main exhibit in our "George Bush Museum." Enclosed with this note is a tie that triggered all these recollections. It's not quite like the Brooks Brothers one, but I hope it will also bring you luck. We look forward to seeing you here in Los Angeles on the 25th of this month. You were kind enough to ask me to call Ms. Presock to set up a meeting with you. I haven't had the courage to intrude on your agenda. However, as a Presidential request is tantamount to an order, I will call her now to see if I may come see you. Lod and Carole Cook have told us how much they enjoyed seeing you at Camp David. As always, we are all rooting for you. Only Barbara has a higher place in our affections. Cordially, Jack /emk Enclosure THE CANADA STATE 03 Dear Jack, Type Thanks for that flasdhy Gavinesque tie. It's a winner; but when will I get to show it off to the double breasted-blue blazer crowd on the Riviera. Anyway I'll give it a trial run right here inside the beltway. Do call when you get here. I'm sure we can carve out some time. I'd like to get caught up on all your're doing. Sinmcerely, Bush Presidential Library Photocopy Bush Library Photocopy George Bush Handwriting FROM THE PRESIDENT STATEMENT THE OF OF STATES THE UNITED 15 OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COVER PAGE TO: Debra Steinberg (Amb Galvin's Office) FROM: Robin MacLean (The President's Office) TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES: 2 (including cover page) DATE: 4/17/92 TIME: 2:14 p.m. MESSAGE: Per your request. Here's a copy for your files. If you have any questions or problems with the transmission, please call: (202) 456-2328 ID: APR 17'92 13:22 TRANSMIT CONFIRMATION REPORT NO. : 001 RECEIVER : 286 1211 TRANSMITTER : DATE : APR 17'92 13:22 DURATION : 00'53 MODE : STD PAGES : 02 RESULT : OK FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON. D.C. Ms. Alexandra Stoddard c/o Mr. Peter Brown 1125 Park Avenue, Apt 6A New York, New York 10028 2-21-91 THE PRESIDENT Dear Alexandra, "Raring to be Youself IS on ,ts wey to cays David. Ill check it out up the So may thanks It was great zeeing you her yesterday Thanks for up medal C: and " for coming To Rose Zamaria ikki Richnow (with book for processing) eigh Ann Metzger (FYI) the Dval office an Burmeister (note address. She is married to Peter Brown, but Affectionately according to Public Liaison prefers to go by profess- ional name -- for PRIV) Cy Bal DARING TO BE YOURSELF The author of "Living a Beautiful Life" asks you the questions she asks her clients - to help you bring out your oron beautiful style in all you do DD ? " DD DD ALEXANDRA STODDARD February 20,1992 To the President and First Lady, To Jenge and Barbara, What an honn to be back in the White House in in you to be apart or this award ceremony. & send you both my deepest admination and warm affection Peter joins me in sending you best wishes and high regards. Alexandro Stobdard THE PRESIDENT 2-21-91 Sonny = = FYI : I called Mr. Whitten yesterday. He sure sauded weah, but he seewed to apprevate the call. Go Guard !! GB The Honorable Gillespie V. Montgomery U.S. House of Representatives 2184 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, D.C. 20515 CC: (Personal) Rose Zamaria (1 copy) (By Courier) NOTE: HAVE HAND CARRIED TO HILL VIA COURIER. 2/21/92 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Dear John: I received your letter of resignation today and, with sincere thanks and appreciation for your service, I accept your resignation effective May 1. I recall your coming to talk to me about this on October 24. At that time you told me you wanted to step aside. I told you then that I certainly understood your reasons for desiring to return to private life. Your job is one of the most difficult in government. You have worked hard for freedom of expression; and yet, at times, as you have ruled against certain grants that you felt were beyond the bounds of common decency, you have been criticized. I thank you for the integrity and commitment that you have brought to the National Endowment for the Arts. No two people can agree in every instance on every grant or indeed on what is good art; in fact some of the art funded by the NEA does not have my enthusiastic approval. I expect some did not have yours, but this should not obscure the overall work of the NEA nor your contribution to it. I thank you and wish you and your family well for a very bright future. Sincerely, GBul The Honorable John E. Frohnmayer Chairperson National Endowment for the Arts 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20506 NATIONAL WASHINGTON ENDOWMENT D.C. 20506 FOR THE ARTS A Federal agency advised by the National Council on the Arts February 21, 1992 The Honorable George Bush President White House Washington, DC 20500 Mr. President: Last October I told you of my desire to return to private life. Accordingly. I submit my resignation effective May 1, 1992. I have appreciated the opportunity to serve you and the arts; you know how much your personal support has meant to me during these difficult times. You and your administration have accomplished a great deal and I'm sure the best is yet to come. Sincerely John E. Frohnmayer taday Chairman JEF/lm KTD 29 USA 29 281150 2520 EASt USA SLC, Utah 84109 NUMISMATICS NUMISMATICS 29. CPT Robert DUNTON USA 2811 So 2520 EAST Salt LAKE City, Utah NUMISMATICS 84109 CyBl THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF so THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF daily THE PRESIDENT $ February 21, 1992 Dear Lod, Thanks for the February 19 fax. You're right! Warmest regards, of FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON, D.C. Mr. Lodwrick M. Cook Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Atlantic Richfield Company Suite 5178 515 South Flower Street Los Angeles, California 90071 (Personal) Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 02. Note From L. M. Cook to George Bush Re: political opinons (1 02/19/92 C pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Office of the President Series: Daily Files Subseries: WHORM Cat.: File Location: Friday, February 21, 1992 [3] Date Closed: 10/21/2014 OA/ID Number: 90655-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 2009-0166-S Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. THE PRESIDENT February 21, 1992 Dear Al: For some odd reason I just, today, got your note of welcome from San Diego -- too much staff bureaucracy, I fear. It was nice of you to check in. Thanks, my friend. We're in an ugly fighting year on the political scene but I remain confident. All best, GBl FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON, D.C. Mr. Alvin R. Busse Al Busse Communications 8602 Oakford Houston, Texas 77024 2/20 Rose, me President Do we know if the President saw Mr. Busse when he was in San Diego? I'll be happy to draft a response. Thanks. Courtnev (71=) AI Busse Communications 8602 Oakford / Houston, Texas 77024 / (713) 626-1144 few naw. for U. February 6, 1992 President George Bush S. Grant Hotel San Diego, California Dear Mr. President: Pleased that another Houstonian is visiting San Diego. I am working on a project that has had me in and out of this City monthly for the past year. As a Past District Governor of Rotary International in Houston, the San Diego Rotary Club is allowing me to attend tomorrow mornings meeting with you. Know you and Barbara are well. Thank you as always for your thoughtful Christmas card greeting. It will be wonderful seeing and hearing you again. Best, Al Ausse Al Busse Sh :6 WV 200 833 29 1118 STATE Type Dear Al, for some odd reason I just, today, got your note of welcome from San Diego toio much staff bureacracy I fear. It was nice of you to check in. Thanks, my friend. We're in an ugly fighting year on the political scene but I remain confidant. All Best, Bush Presidential Library Photocopy Bush Library Photocopy George Bush Handwriting FROM THE PRESIDENT THE PRESIDENT 2-21-92 Dear May, I was 20 some to have about Ken. He and I went back a long lory way as you know. Please tell all your family that Barbara and I send own mozt sincere condotwees. Kenneth was a sovely human being and I know it must hunt a lot. Love from the Bush santy / Gg Bl Mrs. Kenneth McDonnell 21 Willowmere Avenue Old Greenwich, Connecticut 06870 CC: Rose Zamaria (I copy) Mrs. Willard S. Heminway Jr. 14 Deer Lane Greenwich, Connecticut 06830 I Mrs. Willard S. Heminway Jr. 14 Deer Lane Greenwich, Connecticut 06830 7eb.15,1992 I Dear & B. ThoughT you might wan Tto see The enclosed or drop may a moTe. Her address is; 110wmere ave. Old Greenwick, CT. 06870 Loved seeing you both last week - wonderful announcement! we're keeping our 8 sures crossed por here! Tuesday and are seasing up Love, P.S. Betsy JUST spoke to Jean mayer-she sends her best to you and Bar I'm soins to see her in Ha next week. Be sure nobody the has waitten a litter on This Rzf jer 197 was mailed 2/21. THE WHITE HOUSE G WASHINGTON The hard copy of the letter family was having dinner. restaurant where the Wilson Letter was faxed to the February 20, 1992 Dear Mr. Wilson: Congratulations on your 90th birthday. Barbara and I hope that you have a great day, and we send best wishes for a wonderful year ahead. Sincerely, Gg Bul Mr. Jim Wilson Apartment 301 220 MacFarlane Drive Delray Beach, Florida 33444 92 12:29 FROM GOVERNOR'S OFFICE PAGE. 002 State of California 730 STATE STATE DE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE SACRAMENTO. CA 95814 UNITED PETE WILSON GOVERNOR TELEPHONE (916) 445-2841 February 20, 1992 Office of Presidential Messages The White House SG Washington, D. C. 20500 ATT: Ellen Strickartz P2 Dear Ms. Strickartz: Dear Mr. Wilson: This is to request a message from the President 90H for my father's 90th birthday. The date is today, February 20, and even though I realize it will arrive late, I know he would appreciate receiving it. It should be addressed to: Mail Mr. Jim Wilson 220 MacFarlane Drive, Apt. 301 to: Delray Beach, Florida 33444 Thank you for your assistance. Sincerely, Pathilison PETE WILSON FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON, D.C. Ms. April Zion Advertising Manager United Media 200 Park Avenue New York, New York 10166 ARE THE PRESIDENT 2-21-82 4 Draw April - - Thank for "Noney" would you kindly send the attrached ts Jerry Scott Again, that an Bl bcc: Marlin Fitzwater Rose Zamaria (incoming and outgoing) The President EDITORS: BE SURE TO INCLUDE THE NANCY® by Jerry Scott R SYMBOL AFTER THE 2-21-92 FOR RELEASE IN PAPERS FEB. 17 - FEB. 22, 1992 YOU PRINT THIS FEATURE 2-17 - - THE PRESIDENT? I THOUGHT YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT SNOOPY ! THINK OF IT! IM ACTUALLY GOING TO MEET SOMEONE WHO KNOWS Loved what could be better than that THE "RECESS PRESIDENT TALKING TO US ON THE PLAYGROUND YOU LOOK FINE TO ME WHO ASKED YOU, BUB ? YOUR ARNOLD 5 GEORGENESS. THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES CRACKS YOU UP? UI UNITED FEATURE SYNDICATE, 200 Park York, (212) 692-3700 JUST "GEORGE" 1 2-18 110)5 2.22 OH WOW! IVE ALWAYS WANTED TO MEET HIM HE TOTALLY CRACKS ME UP © 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. SERVICE GUYS ARE EXPERTS AT BLENDING IN WITH A CROWD To Scott Park Avenue, New N. N.Y. 10 166 His George breas - it JERRY SCOTT JERRY JERRY JERRY SCOTT THEY SAY THAT THOSE SECRET Imagine The "Education President talking to us right here in our classroom! HOW DOES MY HAIR LOOK 16 MY DRESS OKAY ? DO I HAVE ANYTHING ON MY FACE? YOUR GREATNESS YOUR HIGHNESS YOUR CHIEFNESS scoll JERRY SCOTT 2-20 © 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. © 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. ILL GIVE YOU A HINT... HIS PICTURE 15 IN PRACTICALLY EVERY NEWS- PAPER IN THE WORLD EVERY DAY THIS IS 50 AMAZING! R 50 INCREDIBLE 50 HISTORICAL ! I WONDER IF HIS BODYGUARDS ARE HERE? ITS HARD Isn't that wonderful ? THE PRESIDENT IS COMING DOWN THE 4 HALL !! HOW DO YOU DO UH UM YOUR MAJESTY... REALLY ?? WHO ? TO TELL... 21 © 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. 3 * a a perjun 2001 2-19 HED, WHATS ALL THE WERE HAVING A SPECIAL GUEST TODAY COMMOTION ? THAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IS COMING HERE WOW! THE PRESIDENT yes! I CANT BELIEVE IS ACTUALLY COMING TO OUR CLASS ! OF THE UNITED STATES 15 COMING TO HE'S COMING! © 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. 221 Al! MY THE PRESIDENT NAME 15 GEORGE BUSH OUR CLA55 ?? With the Compliments of The President ARE YOU GOT WELL.. SURE NOW DO YOU SURE POSITIVE ANY HERE'S MY YOU'RE I.D.? DRIVERS HA! BELIEVE ME? THE LICENSE HA! I DONT KNOW.. PRESIDENT? HA! HA! IF I WERE THE PRESIDENT, I 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. WOULD HAVE MADE THEM years SCOTT RE-TAKE THIS PICTURE . YOU STILL DONT YOU LOOK LIKE HIM READ BELIEVE THAT MY IT'S AND YOU SOUND I'M THE LIKE HIM BUT HOW LIPS HIM! PRESIDENT? LETS DO I KNOW THAT SAY YOU'RE REALLY AIM ? IM NANCY® by Jerry Scott SUSPICIOUS 1992 United Feature Syndicate. Inc. 9 EXCUSE ME, YOU CALL YOURSELF ER.. AH. THAT'S A DOES ANYONE HAVE MR. PRESIDENT! THE EDUCATION PRES- SERIOUS ISSUE, AND.. ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT IDENT," ЧЕТ OUR UH UMM... MILLIE, THE WHITE HOUSE SCHOOLS FACE CUT- DOG? BACKS ON FEDERAL EAT YOUR FUNDING HOW DO YOU RESPOND? © 1992 United Feature Syndicate. Inc. HEART OUT, SAM DONALDSON JERRY 8 SCOTT 2-26 To April 2ion- Good Luch. But WISM UNITED FEATURE SYNDICATE, 200 Park Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10166 (212) 692-3700 as Bul WOW! I CANT THE PRESIDENT ! THE ULTIMATE BELIEVE THAT I THE TOP BANANA Asst. HALL PASS ! THE COMMANDER- THE PRESIDENT A TOUR IN CHIEF Principal PBBTH! TITLE WHEN YOU PRINT THIS FEATURE SYMBOL AFTER THE & WAS PICKED TO GIVE OF OUR SCHOOL! EDITORS: BE SURE TO INCLUDE THE © 1992 United Feature Syndicate. Inc. 11075 HERET LET ME SHOW YOU THAT'S OUR GYM I WOULDN'T VERY AROUND OUR SCHOOL, THERE'S THE RECOMMEND MR. PRESIDENT © 1992 United Feature Syndicate. Inc. FUNNY PRINCIPAL'S OFFICE IT TO ANYONE AND THIS 15 OUR WITH A WEAK CAFETERIA STOMACH yor 1232 THOUGH 2.27 THANK YOU ALL IT WAS NICE TO AFTER TODAY I ESPECIALLY FOR LETTING ME HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY AM TOTALLY COME TO YOUR YOU! WHAT TO SHOW MY SUPPORT COMMITTED TO KEEPING CLASSROOM FOR LITERACY DID I CHILDREN IN SCHOOL.. NO DO ? PROBLEM, PREZ © 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. BRAVO! FOR RELEASE IN PAPERS FEB. 24 FEB. 29, 1992 JERRY scall 2.29 200 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10166 212 692-3700 Rose ose UNITED MEDIA FYI R2 February 17, 1992 President George Bush c/o Mr. Marlin Fitzwater The White House Draft thank you 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Washington, D.C. 20500 a Dear Mr. President: The world-renowned comic strip NANCY® by Jerry Scott features a two-week series about you visiting NANCY's school. I've attached the comics and a news release about the series. NANCY is distributed to more than 300 newspapers worldwide by United Feature Syndicate. I hope you enjoy this special series about you! Sincerely, april Zion April Zion Advertising Manager Encl. A SCRIPPS HOWARD COMPANY 200 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10166 212 692-3700 UNITED FEATURE NEWS RELEASE SYNDICATE CONTACT: April Zion Mary Anne Grimes 212-692-3855 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE President Bush Visits NANCY's School in Comic Strip Series NANCY has the thrill of meeting President George Bush and escorting him around her school in a two-week series beginning Feb. 17 in the NANCY® comic strip by Jerry Scott. This is the first time Scott is using a real person in his United Feature Syndicate comic. Scott said, "This series isn't political. It's simply a classroom visit by a very prominent person from a kid's perspective. I was inspired by a story in the news some time ago about a young student asking the president to show some I.D. during a visit to a school. It sounded like something NANCY might do." Scott enjoyed the challenge of doing a caricature: "...but I don't think the world's political cartoonists will be losing any sleep over this. Drawing the president to fit within the NANCY style was a lot of fun, and I'm really proud that I was able to resist the temptation to put those little 'NANCY-spikes' all over his hair." NANCY is distributed to more than 300 newspapers by United Feature Syndicate, which is a division of United Media, a Scripps Howard company. ##### 021192 AN AFFILIATE OF UNITED MEDIA A SCRIPPS HOWARD COMPANY 200 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10166 212 692-3700 UNITED MEDIA 02 MAR 19 P | : 28 March 13, 1992 President George Bush c/o Mr. Marlin Fitzwater The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Mr. President: NANCY® cartoonist Jerry Scott and I were thrilled to receive your hand-written notes regarding your "appearance" in the NANCY comic strip. Thank you SO much for taking the time to write to us. Jerry Scott is so pleased that you enjoyed his comic, he'd like you to have the enclosed original. I hope you' 11 continue to enjoy the comics! Sincerely, april Lion April Zion Advertising Manager Encl. CC: J. Scott A SCRIPPS HOWARD COMPANY HI! MY HOW DO YOUR GREATNESS JUST NAME 15 YOU DO, YOUR HIGHNESS "GEORGE" GEORGE UH UM YOUR CHIEFNESS YOUR BUSH YOUR GEORGENESS... MAJESTY © © 1992 United Feature Syndicate, Inc. VERRY SCOTT 2-22 TO "HIS GEORGENESS" WITH ALL BEST WISHES - JERRY SCOTT POOL REPORT # 1 Andrews Air Force Base - Charleston February 21, 1992 A little spin, a good quote, some color. Aboard were a handful of campaign spinners, including Fred Malek, Charles Black, Haley Barbour and Torie Clarke; the major topic was Buchanan, and whether or not he'd been frozen out of an appearance at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. Not frozen a bit, said Black. He and Malek maintained that South Carolina Governor Campbell had offered his slot -- on Sunday. On the tarmac at Charleston Air Force Base, the governor confirmed same, noting, "I'll give up my time if he wants it. Don't let any one tell you he doesn't have time." Black said several other Republicans had offered speaking time on Sunday, including Gingrich and Gramm. Black added he thought Buchanan believed "terrorism a better opportunity than a Sunday appearance." Malek said he thought Buchanan had "hit his high-water mark" in New Hampshire, but declined to say by how much Bush will win in Georgia. Of Gingrich's comment that Buchanan might get 35-40 per cent of the Georgia vote, Malek said, "I won't make any judgment on the numbers." Malek said he doesn't think the New Hampshire result is "any reason for him (Bush) to change course." He said Bush has a sound economic recovery plan, adding, "the American people don't want" the plan now being sculpted by House Democrats. Clarke advised people to "quit frothing" about changes in political strategy. She predicted "95 per cent of this guy's campaign will be about issues people care most about, the economy, jobs, crime, education. As for bashing Democrats along the way, she noted "you keep your eye on the prize at the end of the game,' indicating there will be some "defining" of Democratic candidates and ideas. Skinner appeared briefly in the press section, but fled when television lights turned on, calling over his shoulder, "Turn that light off." Shortly before landing, there was a false alarm about a Bush appearance, but the prez was apparently just showing off AF One to guests. Coming off Air Force One, Bush was accompanied by Senator Strom Thurmond, who seemed to slip on the ramp at one point, but quickly recovered. Bush posed for photos with more Points of Light in the shadow of AF One, including two sailors wearing submariner's insignia. The president then worked a ropeline about 25 yards long, pressing the flesh with servicemen and women, and a lot of children. One woman called "We love you, president,' but got no special notice from Bush. A small blonde girl in a pink jacket got an autograph card. An Air Force colonel told folks at the end of the line to "keep clapping," but Bush jumped into the limo before getting that far. Thurmond, attempting to do some flesh-pressing of his own, was apparently unrecognized by most of the crowd. The motorcade was uneventful; clumps of folks at the intersections, many smiles, a lot of cheering. There were a few Clinton supporters, however, one holding a sign saying, "No Southern Comfort for Bush." Sullivan, USIA Wolfberg, Newsweek POOL REPORT # 1 Andrews Air Force Base - Charleston February 21, 1992 A little spin, a good quote, some color. Aboard were a handful of campaign spinners, including Fred Malek, Charles Black, Haley Barbour and Torie Clarke; the major topic was Buchanan, and whether or not he'd been frozen out of an appearance at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. Not frozen a bit, said Black. He and Malek maintained that South Carolina Governor Campbell had offered his slot -- on Sunday. On the tarmac at Charleston Air Force Base, the governor confirmed same, noting, "I'll give up my time if he wants it. Don't let any one tell you he doesn't have time." Black said several other Republicans had offered speaking time on Sunday, including Gingrich and Gramm. Black added he thought Buchanan believed "terrorism a better opportunity than a Sunday appearance." Malek said he thought Buchanan had "hit his high-water mark" in New Hampshire, but declined to say by how much Bush will win in Georgia. of Gingrich's comment that Buchanan might get 35-40 per cent of the Georgia vote, Malek said, "I won't make any judgment on the numbers." Malek said he doesn't think the New Hampshire result is "any reason for him (Bush) to change course." He said Bush has a sound economic recovery plan, adding, "the American people don't want" the plan now being sculpted by House Democrats. Clarke advised people to "quit frothing" about changes in political strategy. She predicted "95 per cent of this guy's campaign will be about issues people care most about, the economy, jobs, crime, education. As for bashing Democrats along the way, she noted "you keep your eye on the prize at the end of the game," indicating there will be some "defining" of Democratic candidates and ideas. Skinner appeared briefly in the press section, but fled when television lights turned on, calling over his shoulder, "Turn that light off. Shortly before landing, there was a false alarm about a Bush appearance, but the prez was apparently just showing off AF One to guests. Coming off Air Force One, Bush was accompanied by Senator Strom Thurmond, who seemed to slip on the ramp at one point, but quickly recovered. Bush posed for photos with more Points of Light in the shadow of AF One, including two sailors wearing submariner's insignia. The president then worked a ropeline about 25 yards long, pressing the flesh with servicemen and women, and a lot of children. One woman called "We love you, president,' but got no special notice from Bush. A small blonde girl in a pink jacket got an autograph card. An Air Force colonel told folks at the end of the line to "keep clapping," but Bush jumped into the limo before getting that far. Thurmond, attempting to do some flesh-pressing of his own, was apparently unrecognized by most of the crowd. The motorcade was uneventful; clumps of folks at the intersections, many smiles, a lot of cheering. There were a few Clinton supporters, however, one holding a sign saying, "No Southern Comfort for Bush." Sullivan, USIA Wolfberg, Newsweek Air Force One Pool Motorcade uneventful. Torie Clarke came back to chat up us up. She said the end of the Bush speech, when he talks about unity, was to show "what the party is about, what we stand for." Then a senior administration official came back to say: There is concern about the impact of Buuhanan on the GOP. "You always worry boy that you come out of it together." Chatting about the growth package and the Democratic alternative, he said, "The Democrats are making it easy for us they're making it political" "We're as committed to phase one as we are to phase two." On the resignation of NEA head Fronymeyer: "He came in last fall and said k he wanted to resign he told the president he was leaving in October. " The senior official said the NEA head was not fired. Again on=Biu Buchanan, he said the challenger won't be a force after Sipe Suppr-Tuesday. Bedard-Washington Times THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE February 21, 1992 UNTIL FEBRUARY 22, 1992 The President today recognized the volunteers of the Children's Advocacy Center of Sullivan County in Blountville, Tennessee as the 701st Daily Point of Light for the Nation. The center and its volunteers provide love, care, and a sense of well being for children suffering from abuse and neglect. For nearly 15 years, the center has taken a multidisciplinary approach to caring for children victimized by physical or sexual abuse. The youngsters' needs, as well as those of their families, are addressed through investigative counseling, advocacy, and education programs. Annually, five volunteers work with over 100 children, who range in age from one to 18 years. A council comprised of 17 agencies, organizations, school districts, and hospitals supports the operation of the center. Council members refer child abuse victims to the facility, where they can be interviewed by trained professionals. Because a sensitive contact person and a non-threatening atmosphere are critical to gaining a child's confidence and trust, the center uses specially designed rooms that create a comfortable environment. The volunteers comfort each child and try to rebuild the child's trust and self-esteem by offering as much emotional support as possible. Through the "court school" program, volunteers acquaint the children and their families with knowledge of courtroom personnel and structure, judicial processes, and legal terminology. They participate in a mock trial to learn courtroom behavior, manners, and dress. The goal is to ensure that courtroom appearances will be less intimidating and painful to these already vulnerable children. The Children's Advocacy Center of Sullivan County, previously known as Comprehensive Emergency Services, was modeled on the National Children's Advocacy Center in Huntsville, Alabama. Because of its success, it has been replicated in the Memphis and Chattanooga areas. The President salutes the volunteers of the Children's Advocacy Center of Sullivan County for exemplifying his belief that, "From now on in America, any definition of a successful life must include serving others." ### FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Tracey Taylor or Miah Homstad (202) 456-6266 THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary For Immediate Release February 21, 1992 STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY Chancellor Kohl of Germany will join the President for a meeting at Camp David over the weekend of March 21-22. No agenda has been set, but we expect the two leaders to cover the full range of International issues. # # # THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 21, 1992 The President today recognized the volunteers of the Lend-A-Hand program of Boulder City, Nevada, as the 700th Daily Point of Light for the Nation. Lend-A-Hand volunteers provide frail, elderly, and disabled individuals with a sense of well being through in-home support and visitation. Lend-A-Hand, a combined effort of church and community organizations, was founded in 1989 by Patricia Duncombe, a retired social worker, to fill the gaps in services available to local residents in the home health field. Its four member volunteer staff and 71 direct-service volunteers reach out to over 108 homebound people each month, donating more than 400 hours of service. Volunteers make an average of 12 to 14 home-visits per day to visit with, check on, and lend a hand to those who are ill, infirm, or in need of special assistance --- enabling them to live independently in their own homes as long as possible and providing respite to regular caregivers. Many volunteers and Lend-A-Hand clients develop special friendships through their daily or weekly interaction. Homebound individuals know that someone in the community is concerned for their well being, which may ease the anxiety of living alone. In addition to 10 hours of initial training to become caregivers, Lend-A-Hand volunteers also participate in hour-long in-service training sessions each month. The training program is under the direction of a retired registered nurse. Other Lend-A-Hand components include outreach, support group, community resource development, and educational programming for caregivers. The President salutes the volunteers of the Lend-A-Hand program for exemplifying his belief that, "From now on in America, any definition of a successful life must include serving others." # # # FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Tracey Taylor or Miah Homstad (202) 456-6266 MATERIALS FORWARDED TO THE PRESIDENT February 21, 1992 ACTION 1. Roll Call Op-Ed on the Growth package 2. Personnel Selection -- Gordon Shufelt for the Board of Veterans' Appeals; Kansas-Nebraska Big Blue River Compact Administration 3. Policy Review of Section 337 Order (prohibiting future importation or sale of certain fruit-flavored soft drinks that infrige U.S. registered trademarks) 4. Revised Resignation Letter for Ken Yale, Chief of Staff of the OSTP 5. Acceptance of Resignation Letter for John Fronhmayer 6. Gift Letters 7. Acceptance of Resignation Letter for General Trefry 8. Mail Sample 9. USA Weekend Questionnaire CLASSIFIED INFORMATION 1. 1992 Non-Career Ambassadorial Rotations notebook from Connie Horner -- background material fo 10:30 a.m. 02/21 meeting with the President 2. Letter from Governor Carroll A. Campbell and copy of his letter to Carla Hills re the Uruguay Round negotiations 3. Gray Memo re Recent Recommendations of the Judicial Selections Cmte 4. Boskin/Gray Memo Attaching Articles on Regulatory Initiatives 5. Holiday Note re Letters to Administrative Officials on their Support of SOTU 2 REMARKS 1. Radio Address 2. American Legislative Exchange Council - Cards 3. Address to Southern Republican Leadership Conference -- reading copy 2-21-92 # THE PRESIDENT Dear Alvin - "FYI" " Hang in ! All But of FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON, D.C. Mr. Alvin Owsley One Shell Plaza 910 Louisiana Houston, Texas 77002-4995 CC: (in & out) Rose Zamaria (I copy) Ricords- 2/21 Enclose Frohnmarjer letters (in iont u/ card to MR. OWSLEY Bt THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 21, 1992 Dear John: I received your letter of resignation today and, with sincere thanks and appreciation for your service, I accept your resignation effective May 1. I recall your coming to talk to me about this on October 24. At that time you told me you wanted to step aside. I told you then that I certainly understood your reasons for desiring to return to private life. Your job is one of the most difficult in government. You have worked hard for freedom of expression; and yet, at times, as you have ruled against certain grants that you felt were beyond the bounds of common decency, you have been criticized. I thank you for the integrity and commitment that you have brought to the National Endowment for the Arts. No two people can agree in every instance on every grant or indeed on what is good art; in fact some of the art funded by the NEA does not have my enthusiastic approval. I expect some did not have yours, but this should not obscure the overall work of the NEA nor your contribution to it. I thank you and wish you and your family well for a very bright future. Sincerely, GBul The Honorable John E. Frohnmayer Chairperson National Endowment for the Arts 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20506 NATIONAL WASHINGTON ENDOWMENT D.C. 20506 FOR THE ARTS A Federal agency advised by the National Council on the Arts February 21, 1992 The Honorable George Bush President White House Washington, DC 20500 Mr. President: Last October I told you of my desire to return to private life. Accordingly, I submit my resignation effective May 1. 1992. I have appreciated the opportunity to serve you and the arts; you know how much your personal support has meant to me during these difficult times. You and your administration have accomplished a great deal and I'm sure the best is yet to come. tab JEF/lm ALVIN OWSLEY ONE SHELL PLAZA 910 LOUISIANA HOUSTON, TEXAS 77002-4995 February 7, 1992 GB's 2/5/92 letter attached. Dear George: Thank you for your letter. I understand political lampooning. Is Annie Sprinkle's exposure of her cervix not obscene? Is a figure of Jesus Christ immersed in a jar of urine not degrading to the Christian religion? What I don't understand is why my money taken from me by the United States Government under threat of force is to be used for that purpose. All the best, Gener President George Bush The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20500 92 FEB 10 PM 9: 02 NEA THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 5, 1992 Dear Alvin: Thank you for your letter of December 27. I appreciate your concerns about the NEA. I do understand that many people have been disturbed by some of the projects that have been funded by the National Endowment for the Arts or the State Councils. Certainly, I oppose public funding for a work that is obscene or that degrades a race or religion. But political lampooning is all part of the job. It's occasionally frustrating; but as Harry Truman said, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. " Thanks again for your letter. Barbara joins me Barbara. in sending warm regards to you and your Sincerely, Mr. Alvin Owsley One Shell Plaza Cy/ 910 Louisiana Houston, Texas 77002-4995 THE WHITE HOUSE MRS. BUSH'S PRESS OFFICE DAILY PRESS CLIPPINGS Friday, February 21, 1992 Mrs. Bush (in folder) Secretary Skinner West Wing Marlin Fitzwater West Wing Constance Horner West Wing Carol Powers West Wing Patty Presock Residence First Lady Detail Staircase Karen Connell Room 58 OEOB Shirley Green Room 94 OEOB Anne Griffith Room 98 OEOB Diana Kellogg Room 157 OEOB Gregg Petersmeyer Room 100 OEOB Marguerite Sullivan Room 268 OEOB Carolyn Washington Room 268 OEOB Benita Somerfield hold one copy Ann Brock Julie Cooke Joan DeCain Laurie Firestone Jane Moore Susan Porter Rose Sally Runion Peggy Swift Anna Perez Sondra Haley Jean Becker Jay Suchan (plus originals) The Modern Woodmen Winter 1999 If Mrs. Bush did not make this a practice. she would be creating the KNOW following garbage: 1. Old Christmas greeting cards 2. Purchased gift tags 3. Gift tag packaging 4. Store bags holding her gift tag NATURE purchases Instead she has cut down the garbage flow to: 1. The old Christmas greetings, but only after additional use. Every year First Lady And that is called reuse! Knowing nature means being XBarbara Bush pulls out her sensitive to the problems of our environment. As our garbage piles Reuse pinking shears and sits continue to grow and grow and grow. down with her boxes of it is important for families to take steps to reduce the amount of greeting cards from the individual waste they create. Most of us are now recycling, but previous year's Christmas. let's take earth care one step further. One by one, she studies Make reuse of throwaways a family goal-and a way of life. it! each card, finds the Although reused items may prettiest scene and cuts eventually be thrown away. they take the place of another resource that that part of the card into a would have been used. which cuts back on the amount of waste disposed. small rectangular or square Shelley Owrutsky. editor of Reuse tag. Then she punches a News newsletter. stresses the impor- by Julie Irish tance of family involvement. hole at the corner to place "No child will start doing anything environmentally sound if every time a string. For years and years he/she saves a milk carton or toilet she has used these clever paper roll Mom throws it out." she explains. creations as gift tags for "We need to use what we have. It's at a personal level. and it's easy to do." packages. Owrutsky shared some of her favorite reuse ideas with The Modern Woodmen. NEWSDAY, WEDNESDAY. FEBRUARY 19, 1992 VIEWPOINTS ELLEN GOODMAN Mr. Bush, Our House Is Your House HERE ARE MANY, many things that George What happens in your house - if you are work- T Bush could learn from his wife. Warmth, for ing and pregnant, if you want to keep a job and one. Grace, for another. Syntax, for a third. care for a dying parent - may be directly affected That would be nice. The ability to convey the sense by what happened that day in the White House. So, his announcement speech is fair warning of a person at ease in his own skin. There are other things George could use if only that we are in for another round of family rhetoric Barbara could bring them to her marriage as part but not a word of family policy. We're in for more of a political dowry. Her job approval ratings, for talk about family values but not a sentence about family supports. example. Or her popularity. But last week. he borrowed a line from his wife The president's fans called out "Four more years! that could have used a good leaving alone. In his Four more years!" Indeed, he is running for the official announcement for re-election he quoted his fourth term of the Reagan administration, for four "favorite political philosopher Barbara Bush." He more years during which he can tell American fam- ilies: Ask not what your government can do for you. "America's future doesn't take shape in small said, "What happens in your house is more impor- rooms with heavy polished wooden desks,' said the tant than what happens in the White House." president, "it takes place in homes where parents Well, not exactly. Not always. i read to their children, talk about responsibility, I had heard that sentiment from the First Lady teach them values, show them how to love one herself in June of 1990. On a controversial com- another, respect one another and work hard." mencement day at Wellesley College, she told an As parents, we don't need to be told that children audience of undergraduate women, "Your success are raised best by caring families. But what happens as a family, our success as a society, depends not on when the child we' trying to comfort is sick and we what happens in the White House but what hap- can't afford a doctor? What if we have to chose pens inside your house." between being there to help with the homework or Barely a month later, her husband had vetoed working a second shift to save for college? What if the Family and Medical Leave Act. This modest "your house" is being lost to the economy? centerpiece of any sane family policy, a bill that The president tells us, "parents, not govern- would have given millions of workers with a new ment should make the important decisions about baby or a seriously ill family member up to 12 health, child care and education." He says, "I be- weeks of job-protected unpaid leave, died on Penn- lieve in personal responsibility." Exactly what decisions can a parent make about sylvania Avenue. health without insurance? About child care if the slots are filled and the prices high? As for personal responsibility? French parents are not turned into irresponsible louts because their government supports widespread and high- quality child care. European families are not shat- tered by paid maternity leave. Canadians do not consider a health-care system a private matter. Bush knows no more about family life in Amer- ica today than he knows about supermarkets. He has disconnected public life from private life and government from the everyday concerns of family. But responsibility is a collective word and commu- nity is more than a thousand points of light. And what happens to the White House this election year depends on what happens in your house. As for Barbara, well, I'll quote the words an- other "political philosopher" found on a placard in New Hampshire: "We like you, Barbara! But you're sleeping with the enemy." THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Bush's 'Home' Seeks Bankruptcy HOUSTON, Feb. 20 (Reuters) to renegotiate terms with the pri- - The owners of the Houston ho- mary lender, Prudential Insur- tel President Bush calls home ance. have filed for bankruptcy. Lawyers for the owners said A suite at the hotel, the Housto- the bankruptcy filing was unlikely nian Hotel and Conference Cen- to affect operations because the ter, has long served as Bush's hotel is under a long-term lease to official residence for tax and vot- a separate company, the Housto- ing purposes, though he rarely nian Hotel and Conference Cen- visits Houston and spends much ter, Inc. of the summer at his home in Texas Democratic party lead- Maine. ers used the bankruptcy to jab at The hotel's owners, Burdened Mr. Bush about the economic with about $28.5 million in debt, troubles affecting millions of oth- mostly from renovations to the er Americans. "I think this might 300-room hotel, filed for bankrupt- help him get the message," said cy protection under Chapter 11 on Ed Martin, the state party's exec- Tuesday after four years of trying utive director. 4A . FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 USA TODAY CAPITAL LINE USA TODAY'S BRIEFING ON WASHINGTON BIPARTISAN MATCH: Presi- dent Bush's daughter, Dorothy Bush LeBlond, is marrying a top aide to one her father's most vocal Democratic critics, Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo. Barbara Bush's spokeswoman Anna Perez said LeBlond, 32, and Robert Koch, 31, will tie the knot at the Camp David, Md., presidential retreat, and the bride-to-be's parents are "thrilled." No date has been announced. AP LeBLOND: To wed at Camp David THE WASHINGTON POST : FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 Gephardt aide Robert Koch and fiancee Dorothy Bush LeBlond. Doro S Left-Hand Man The First Daughter's Democratic Intended By Donnie Radcliffe public relations consultant Mark Washington Post Staff Writer Johnson, says: "There's room for more than one bumper sticker on They say marriages are made in the Koch family car." heaven, but it's hard to imagine Dor- No date has yet been announced othy Bush LeBlond and Robert Petri for the wedding of Doro Bush, 32, Koch coming together anyplace but divorced mother of two small chil- Washington. dren, and Bobby Koch, 31. But the Where else but in this citadel of White House says the ultra-private bipartisanship could the daughter of vows will be exchanged at Camp Da- the Republican president of the vid, the presidential retreat in Mary- United States hope to find wedded land's Catoctin Mountains. Koch bliss as the wife of a top aide to one gave LeBlond her ring Saturday of her father's most persistent crit- night over dinner while Sam Le- ics, the Democratic majority- leader Blond, 7, and Ellie, 5, looked on. of the House? The very same Demo- Koch (pronounced Cook) is by all crat-Richard A. Gephardt of Mis- reports a Democrat just as LeBlond souri-some people think could end by all indications is a Republican. But up challenging George Bush in No- Fred Hatfield, who was Koch's boss vember. when they worked for former House But as one friend of the couple's, See KOCH, C3, Col. -- 1 Page of 2 From morny WIND Tenv Coemo OI III from 1986 to 1989. says the CORT And mysen ..0n ground in the Kocn-LeBlona seen in the decline. curtship. which began just about a in the late 1970s. espital III the an after- ther became a virtual barran III the .0011. They nit IT on. year ago. was never politics. What they snare are very simiar prestigious Congressional Country Coeino savs Kech carled him some ackgrounds. They're both tremen- Club. to which he belonged. when he nme later to say that LeBlond had in- cously family-oriented. They both led a seven-year battle against it be- vited him to a state dinner. "I said. 'Re- cause. he claimed. the club had been member. your name will be in The have great senses of humor. They're skimming wages from some of its Washington Post the next day. You oth very athletic. They play ten- predominantly minority service staff. better go III and tell Dick Gephardt).' ns-Doro plays well. and sometimes he wins. The ciub. whose membership 111- Dick didn't have any problems with it. Koch's performance on the courts cludes members of Congress. was but way back then we knew. the Bush- amost certainly has been ranked ai- never prosecuted because the statute is too. it could cause some difficulties." ready by the mythical Bush family of limitations had expired. although The Bushes were reportedly all for Ranking Committee." believed to be the Maryland attorney general's 0:- Roch. doing what they could to help composed of LeBlond's four older fice found that there had been irregu- me couple carry on a normal court- brothers. The Bushes, remember. lar payroll practices. -mp. Barbara Bush reportedly kept ion't like to lose. After Coelho left Congress. Bobby Koch's name oit that first guest list. On the golf course. Koch has his Koch went to work for Gephardt. As though it showed up on subsequent good and his bad days. Last summer administrative assistant in the majori- ones. In Kennebunkport. where the II was one of the latter. when he ty leader's office he is involved in ev- Bushes vacationed last August and rounded out a presidential foursome erything from overseeing all adminis- LeBlond took her regular morning with actor Kevin Costner and tennis rative functions to working out the runs. Koch was identified to reporters champ Andre Agassi. President Bush legislative floor schedules and deter- merely as an unnamed Secret Service irove straight if not long. Costner and mining Gephardt's political activities. agent. And now that the two are en- Agassi were steady if unremarkable. "He's as smart as they come on the gaged. the White House is handling while Koch sliced his first drive. int- Hill. with very much of a political all media inquiries. ung a muiligan aimost straight up. "I hope." a disdainful president not- mind. but he's not a wacko liberai." As the president's son-in-law, Koch ed later. "the summit with Gorbachev says another Coelho alumnus. Tom could be privy to information Bush's Nides. who now works on Speaker political opponents would relish. goes better than golf with these guys." Thomas S. Foley's staff. Friends like Tom Nides say that "ob- Coelho, managing director of a viously your first loyalty is to your One enthusiasm of Koch's presum- New York banking investment firm wife. But- I have all the confidence in ably not shared by Doro's dad is pro- fessional wrestling. It's not unusual who is a member of the National Re- the world that Bobby will be able to habilitation Hospital's board. recalls handle a situation like that." for him to jump on a plane to go to a that the roots of the LeBlond-Koch As for Gephardt. his reaction is be- major bout. courtship go back to one of the hospi- ing funneled through his spokeswom- On the political front. Koch has al- tal's functions. LeBlond had moved to m. Deborah Johns. ready been ranked by Roll Call. the Washington after her April 1990 di- "He's very happy about Bobby and insider journal of Capitol Hill. as one vorce from William H. LeBlond. a Doro." she said yesterday. "That's it." of the Hill's "Most Powerful Staffers." Maine contractor. and had gone to Coelho, who resigned his California work in the hospital's fund-raising and congressional seat in June 1989 amid special events office. scrutiny over a loan from a California "Doro expressed an interest in savings and loan executive. credits meeting Bobby," Coelho remembers. Koch with running his successful cam- "I counseled her that if someone paign to become majority whip in comes across aggressively. Bobby 1986. moves the other way. So I told her Koch's relationship with Coelho be- we've got to go about this carefully. It gan in 1983. shortly after he graduat- took several months to get the first ed from the University of Maryland date going." with a bachelor of arts degree in polit- Then one day another Coelho aium. ical science. He was 23 when he went Heidi Hicks. invited Nides and Koch to work for the Democratic Congres- over to the hospital. "Let's put it this sional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which-Coelho chaired. A Washington native, Koch is one of six children of Helen and George W. Koch. His fa- ther was president of the Grocery Manufacturers of America until he re- tired in 1990 and is legendary as a lobbyist. Martin Franks. vice president. Washington. of CBS but executive di- rector of Coelho's DCCC staff at the time, remembers Koch as "the hour- to-hour manager who kept track of the commitments and promises" in Coelho's whip campaign. "He was very well organized. had marvelous people skills and came from a family which maintained high standards in a 2 N THE NEW YORK TIMES METRO FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Chronicle Love's labors: gains and losses. Among the gains: Bushes' daughter is engaged Among the losses: Masters and Johnson are divorcing. Love, your magic spell is every- He's been paying special attention to where. Well; almost. the children.' President Bush's daughter, DORO- Mr. Koch and Ms. LeBlond, who THY BUSH LeBLOND, will cross party works on fund-raising and special lines to marry a top aide to one of her events for the National Rehabilitation father's most vocal critics in the Hospital in Washington, have been Democratic Party, Representative seeing each other for more than a Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri. year, and Mr. Koch has spent time Ms. LeBlond, 32 years old, will mar- with the family at Camp David. A ry ROBERT KOCH, 31, at Camp David good golfer, he has played with the at a date yet to be set, Barbara President several times. No political Bush's spokeswoman, Anna Perez, differences there. told The Associated Press. Mr. Koch, who is the administrative assistant to Mr. Gephardt, the House majority leader, proposed on Saturday evening, when he took Ms. LeBlond and her children, Sam, 7, and Ellie, 5, out to dinner. She was divorced from William LeBlond in 1990. Ms. Perez said that the Bushes, who were campaigning in New Hampshire over the weekend, were "thrilled" when they learned of the engagement. A source close to the family told The Associated Press: "They just love him. They think he's the most sensitive wonderful person. Fri 21-Feb-92 0:21 EST Bushes 'Thrilled' at Daughter's Engagement to Key Democratic Aide By RITA BEAMISH Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) President Bush and his wife Barbara are said to be "thrilled" at daughter Dorothy's engagement to a top aide of House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-Mo. Dorothy Bush LeBlond, 32, plans to marry Robert Koch, 31, who is the administrative assistant for Gephardt, one of Bush's toughest congressional critics. Mrs. Bush's press secretary Anna Perez confirmed the engagement on Thursday, and when asked the reaction of the bride's parents, she said they were "thrilled." No date has been announced but the wedding will take place at the presidential retreat at Camp David, Md., she said. Although Gephardt has repeatedly criticized the president on trade and other issues and is a frequent target of White House barbs, both sides of the political fence are reported to be accepting the news happily. Gephardt and Koch have discussed the marriage, said Gephardt's press secretary, Deborah Johns. "I'm sure he's happy for them," she said of her boss. As for the Bushes, "They just love him. They think he's the most sensitive wonderful person. He's been paying special attention to the children," " said one source close to the family. Ms. LeBlond has two children, Sam, 7, and Ellie, 5, from a previous marriage, to William LeBlond. They divorced in 1990. Friends said Koch proffered the ring on Saturday night, when he took Ms. LeBlond and the two children out for dinner. The president's daughter works on fund-raising and special events for the National Rehabilitation Hospital in Washington. Koch, an accomplished golfer, has toured the links with Bush on several occasions. DAILY NEWS Friday, February 21, 1992 A lesson for the education honchos There's a sim- other policy matters, we tend to go search- willing to make - and to demand - for it, They do not dismiss the importance of ple truth about ing for answers before we reach agree- the direct involvement of parents in their the social services schools are called upon schools that ment on what the questions are. children's school work) to deliver; they simply insist that we sepa- you won't find For some of those who seek to influence But their research into the academic rate teaching from social services, and at in any of those school policy, the question may be how to success in American schools of these refu- least consider whether it's reasonable to studies on eliminate the problems of race and caste gee children leads them to a secondary try to do both at school. school reform, in our society, or how to raise the test conclusion: That "the American school sys- One social service that needs to become school restruc- scores of black and Hispanic children from tem - despite widespread criticism - has a matter of routine is teaching parents how turing or edu- poor families. For others, it may be how to retained its capacity to teach, as it has to get their young children ready for cational choice. get all of our children more interested in shown with these refugees. We believe that school learning. I'm talking about parent- You won't find it in the reports detailing math, science and English, or how to get the view of our schools as failing to edu- ing classes conducted in recreation cen- how poorly our children are doing in com- smarter teachers into our classrooms. For cate stems from the unrealistic demand ters and church basements for those who parison with the children of Taiwan or still others, it may involve better prepara- that the educational system deal with ur- already are parents, and I'm talking about Denmark, or in the critiques of those stud- tion for entry-level jobs after high school, gent social service needs." classroom parenting courses for junior ies. or improved college-prep courses, or You knew that, too. Even if you hadn't high and high school students. Yes manda- I know only two places where you can greater encouragement for girls. heard it from your children's teachers tory, and for boys and girls. Most of them find it: in your own head, where the knowl- With SO many questions, it is not surpris- (which you probably have) you'd know it will sooner or later be parents, so they may edge has been for as long as you can re- ing that the only thing we can agree on is anyway: that the more you require schools as well learn something about being good member, and in the February issue of Sci- that something is wrong and needs to be to feed children, protect them from drugs parents. entific American magazine, where three fixed and violence, look after their health and That one innovation, widely instituted, researchers say it almost in passing. Nathan Caplan, Marcella Choy and John coach them in safe sex, the less time and might do more to improve school outcomes Here it is: America's schools - unre- Whitmore, all of the University of Michi- energy the teachers will have left for aca- than all the reform/restructuring/choice structured and unreformed - are doing a gan, set out to explore reasons for the aca- demics. recommendations that occupy so much of pretty good job of teaching children who demic success of the children of Indochi-iase Sayn themauthors The primary nole.ne II the educationaled boog $ sand come to school ready for learning. VIDESE boat peoplement American. thateroft parentis That's GLOD to say that the schools don't Now if you and I know that Their articleds Worth the the improvement the people in charge of educationalipolicy (Their principal that of that some/things) have such difficulty figuring it out?/The Hga the critical influende: to be done name, luggin nother reason, suspect, is that as with SO many place on education the sacrificas they aremsledmns",1 prodit But you knew teat, e. Air Force One Pool Motorcade uneventful. Torie Clarke came back to chat up us up. She said the end of the Bush speech, when he talks about unity, was to show "what the party is about, what ... we stand for. " Then a senior administration official came back to say: There is concern about the impact of Buuhanan on the GOP. "You always worry=abods- that you come out of it together." Chatting about the growth package and the Democratic alternative, he said, "The Democrats are making it easy for us they're making it political" "We're as committed to phase one as we are to phase two." On the resignation of NEA head Fronymeyer: "He came in last fall and said k he wanted to resign he told the president he was leaving in October." The senior official said the NEA head was not fired. Again on=Biu Buchanan, he said the challenger won't be a force after Signe Suppr-Tuesday. Bedard-Washington Times THE WHITE HOUSE BULLETIN BULLETIN BROADFAXING NETWORK, 309 CAMERON ST., ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 (703) 684-2020 MEMORANDOM FOR MARIA SHEEHAN MEDIA AFFAIRS THE WHITE HOUSE SUBJECT: TODAY'S BRIEFING DATE: FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 - 12:30 PM EDT SINCE THE MORNING PAPERS: 0 Israel has halted its offensive into southern Lebanon, but says it may resume attacks if Lebanese forces continue to launch rockets towards towns in northern Israel. A Lebanese rocket hit a house in northern israel today, killing a five-year-old girl. 0 The chief UN weapons inspector today warned Iraq that any further hindering of disarmament efforts could bring severe consequences. The message from the UN Security Council was delivered by the chief inspector today in Baghdad. Meanwhile, a UN Commission is planning to recommend a redrawing of the Iraq-Kuwait border in Kuwait's favor. forcing traq to relinquish some of the disputed oil wells that spurred its invasion into Kuwait. 0 Financial news as of 12:30 PM EDT: - DOW (30 Industrials): Unchanged to 3280 on a volume of 135 million shares. IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND AROUND TOWN: 0 An FDA advisory panel's decision not to ban silicone gel implants outright may have been the result of subtle pressure from the White House, say sources. Late yesterday, the panel recommended the implants be allowed, but with restrictions. Wednesday, after it became clear that the FDA panel would not produce the scientific evidence that silicone was directly related to health disorders, the White House expressed concern to HHS Secretary Louis Sullivan and urged that a compromise be found that was "in the best interest of the public health." Earlier. sources say, at least one official from the Illincis Medical Association communicated to the White House that in the absence of scientific proof that the impiants posed a health risk, a decision to ban the implants would not be well received in the medical community and could cost President Bush substantial political support from the nation's physicians. Opponents of the ban also claim that the testimony of Congresswoman Marilyn Lloyd (D-TN) before the advisory panel earlier in the week. and that of several plastic surgeons who oppose the ban, also influenced Kessler. Lloyd, upon the advice of her physicians, had decided to seek the use of the implants after breast cancer surgery. Kessler's relationship with the advisory panel is said to resemble a prosecutor's relationship with a grand jury. "He can get them to dc whatever he wants." said one source. The White House Bulletin is a fax-delivered bulletin board covering policy, political and personnel developments in the federal government and Washington. The Bulletin welcomes information from those in Washington. (Tel.) 703-684-2020 Paul Roellig, Publisher William Armistead, Managing Editor Richard Reed, Political Editor 0 Clayton Yeutter's Input as chief domestic policy advisor to President Bush is expected to result in a strong, clear, conservative message from the White House for the 1992 campaign and beyond. Yeutler, who started his position on Tuesday. will work closely with the President's domestic policy team 77 an attempt to convince American voters that, not only has George Bush had a good track record on domestic issues over the last three years, but. more importantly, has developed a well-defined blueprint for improving the country over the next tive years. "We certainly do need to get on top of the domestic. agenda." says Yeutter. "Unfortunately. the perception at the moment is that isn't the case, so we have to correct that." Yeutter told the Bulletin the White House has to "take this a step at a time. The first step IS to Sit down among the top leadership group here and decide what our major themes are going to be, both domestic and foreign. the rest of the way We have to get the focus on major themes and then, once we've determined as precisely as we can what those major themas will be, then we have to have the policy initiatives that support those themes." Yeutter added that, while it is too early to predict which of the additional policy initiatives the Administration has had in the works for some time will emerge. he said that ne, personally. feels "the President must lay out both a long-term and short-term strategy and program. that would evidence sound conservative economic principles." Asked if this program would provide a reason for voters to allow George Bush to govern for another term, Yeutter responded: Absolutely. And to govern on those terms, that basis. Or putting it another way, my view is that we need to lay out some broad themes, a la Ronald Reagan in 1980-81. and pound those themes vigerously over the next several months. You will remember that, when Reagan came in, he had the major themes of deregulation, reducing taxes. cutting spending and restoring the national defense -- four or five major themes that were reiterated over and over again both in his campaign and in the ensuing months." Yeuther says his "personal judgement is that the President needs to do essentially the same thing in 1892. Maybe with different themes - or at least with nuances that reflect the difference between 1992 and 1980." That "fundamenta" modus operandi" says Yeutler, is, in his judgement, "just as sound today ES it was in 1980." 0 Many Republicans both in the White House and on the Hill are eager to see Yeutter succeed in developing a conservative domestic agenda, though there is some concern that the rhetoric, once it hits institutional barriers, may not be followed by action. "We are going to make this work," said a senior policy aide in the White House. "With Sam [Skinner] and Clayton [Yeutter] coming here. there IS a real chance to start anew and put forward some strong policies." in assessing Yeutter's mission, a Republican Hill source reported: "The President needs to be seen taking action based on those principles, as well as merely articulating them. Given the problems from the '90 summit decision the White House made, statements alone. in absence of action, [will be insufficient)." The source added that he is confident the White House will SOCD have the option to prove its intentions. "The Democrats will pass their tax increase package next week, and after it comes out of the Senate and goes to the President's desk, vetoing the tax increase will be a Presidential action consistent with those principles," said the source. "That will give a stronger communications message than merely saying you are against it,' The Hill source saw there is an institutional stumbling block. however, to those in the White House seeking to provide action to back up a conservative message: OMB. "There is always going to be the problem of OMB being such a powerful institution within the White House." said the source. "Yeutter is going to have to have not only nominal control of paper flow and a sufficient staff to develop proposals to a level of Presidential quality, but he IS also going to have to be adept at resisting the OMB staff. They have the elite staff and are a tremendous force." 0 A few added words in the President's State of the Union message has left President Bush vulnerable to effective political attacks claiming he has jettisoned the S500-per-child exemption. During the President's speech. te laid out his short-term economic growth initiatives which have been incorporated into the Republican seven-point legislative package and then stated: "I submit my plan tomorrow, and I'm asking you to pass it by March 20th. And ! ask the American people to let you know they want this action by March 20th. From the day after that. if it must ba. the battie IS joined. And you 2 know. when principle is at stake I relish a good fair fight. I said my plan has two parts, and it does. And it's the second part that 13 the heart of the matter. For it's not enough to get an immediate burst, we need long-term improvement in our economic position." While describing the ninth "step" of this "second part." Bush then said in his speech: "There's one thing we can do right away. ease the burden of rearing a child. I ask you tonight to raise the personal exemption by $500 per child for every family." The Bush White House continues to argue that by placing the initiative in the "second part" of the economic package, it is quite clear the exemption was never intended to be in a package passed by Congress by March 20th. But by saying he wanted it passed "right away." then not including it in the seven-point legislative proposal the Republicans want to see action on by March 20, Bush's political opponents have been successful in hammering the President for backing away from his proposal. "We wanted to do something right away to accelerate the economy and put Americans back to work," said an Administration official. "I don't think by (placing the exemption proposal in the second part, to be considered in the summer) means it is slow. Our personal exemption doesn't even become effective until October 1 - it is not necessary to enact it by March 20." The official added: "If somebody wants to add the personal exemption into the seven and pay for it in any of the numerous ways the President has proposed in his budget, then [Bush] would sign it in a minute." A White House official seconded the opinion that the proposal was never designed to be included in the "fast-track" package, but stated: "It is unfortunate we had to spend these last few weeks responding to that charge." According to Republican House source: "The President has a problem in that the combination of the way he expressed it in the speech and the followup coming out of Treasury managed to make it sufficiently unclear. So his opponents have been able to exploit it and make it look either inconsistent or insincere." 0 Republican strategists are pleased with how they see Congressional Democrats positioning themselves on their "economic growth package." With House Democrais pruning some pro-business aspects from their original proposal in recent days. and the apparent willingness of Senate Finance Chairman Lloyd Bentsen to follow their recomméndations for tax increases on the wealthy, Republicans see & battle brewing that may well define the two political Parties again in their more traditional positions. "Weire going to be able to savage it if that's the package they get behind," said a senior political advisor to President Bush. "The House package has no significant investment incentives, a temporary middie- class tax cut in exchange for a permanent tax increase on tolks they consider the wealthy including a iot of people who don't consider themselves wealthy." According to a House Republican source: "I think we are going to be nipretty darn good shape in presenting [our] two different views on taxation to the American people by next week." The source added: "There has been clumsiness on both sides as both parties maneuvered into their line of battle. but it is beginning to look like the Democrats will be defending tax increases and we will be defending tax cuts. Not a bad position, given the track record of the past year." 0 Bush campaign officials this morning dismissed media reports suggesting there is an ongoing debate within the Bush campaign with respect to how it should handle Pat Buchanan's candidacy. "We have put him on notice that if he criticizes the President, his charges will not go unanswered as they did in New Hampshire and that we reserve the option to criticize some of his controversial views." said one official. "Now we're waiting to see what he does. In the free media, he's been critical. He starts advertising tonight in Georgia and he will hear from us if he starts criticizing the President." The advisor added that should the campaign have to respond to Buchanan, the "tactical" decisions in terms of "when and who says what about whom" will be made on a day-to-day basis. "The point is we are prepared for a mammoth counter-punch if necessary." 0 National Highway Traffic Safety Administrator Jerry Curry is going about his normal business, ostensibly unaffected by a recent firestorm between he and Acting Transportation Secretary James Busey, according to Administration officials. According to the officials, all talk about Curry possibly withdrawing his nomination to replace Busey as Federal Aviation Administrator has stopped. and 3 "things have gotten very quiet over the whole issue." Asked if the disagreement between Busey and Curry nas blown over, one Administration official said: "That is a matter of speculation. Perhaps they have decided to wait until Secretary Card comes in before taking any strong action. You must remember that [the current hierarchy at Transportation Department] is an interim arrangement." 0 Today, President Bush meets with Secretary of State Saker: attends a buefing for the American Legislative Exchange Council: addresses the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Charieston, South Carolina: and spends the weekend at Camp David. PERSONNEL: 0 Gerald Austin has joined the Paul Tsongas Presidential campaign as senior advisor. Austin served as campaign manager for Jesse Jackson's Presidential campaign in 1988 and worked for Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone's victory in 1990. 0 Mary Joy Jameson has resigned her position as the Director of Public Affairs at the Department of Energy to become Vice President for public affairs at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York. Jameson's resignation becomes effective next week, and no replacement has been announced. POLLWATCH: c The latest CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup poll shows President Bush slipping in popularity, but maintaining his lead over Democratic contenders. The survey of 754 nationwide voters conducted February 19-20 reveals: -- The President's approval rating fel. to an all-time low of 39%, down from 47% on February 2. - 42% say President Bush deserves to be re-elected. down from 51% on February 2. -- 58% expect the President to be re-elected. down from 63% in early February. 27% think a Democral will win, down from 29%. -- President Bush would beat Bill Clinton, 53% to 43%, and would win over Paul Tsongas. 54% to 39%. Clinton would take a victory over Pai Buchanan, 49% to 40%, while Tsongas would win 43% to 41%. Among Republicans, 78% prefer President Bush for the nomination, while 20% would choose Buchanan. -- 62% of Republicans think Buchanan should stay in the race, while 30% think he should drop out. - Among Democrats, 41% favor Clinton, 31% like Tsongas, 7% are for Jerry Brown, 6% for Bob Kerrey, and 5% for Tom Harkin. Those Democrats who are satisfied with the Democratic field of candidates come in dead even with those who would like someone else to enter the race, both at 45%. 0 A statewide survey of voters in Massachusetts, taken in the days immediately preceding the New Hampshire primary, shows Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton leading George Bush 43 percent to 34 percent in a theoretical general-election contest. The poll, conducted by Voter-Consumer Research (VCR) of Bathesda, Maryland, sampled 600 registered voters from February 15-16. VCR's Jan van Lohuizer called the results "significant in that this is the first head-to-head contest in a state where, as a result of exposure generated in the state's media markets in advance of the New Hampshire primary. both candidates are well known." Meanwhire, Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, a Republican, is said to be in "strong shape." 4 POLITICAL ANALYSIS: This morning, the Builetin invites Larry Kudlow. Senior Managing Director and Chief Economist at Bear Stearns, to discuss the economic growth packages now being considered on Capitol Hill. Kudlow served as Associate Director of OMB for Economics and Planning in the Reagan Administration. BULLETIN: What do you think of the way the economic growth proposals are shaping up on Capitol Hill? KUDLOW: The tax debate in Washington is creating tremendous confusion right now both for business and for investors. In fact, although there is still the hope of a pro-growth tax bill, the current discussions probably are delaying recovery because people are delaying investment and business decisions until they can clarify what tax measures will be taken and when'these measure will be effective. The net result of the current discussion is that the confusion is causing an across-the-board postponement of economic activity which will probably hold back the recovery ir. the first half of the year. BULLETIN: Many in the financial sector say they would like to see Congress lower the tax rate on capital gains, but they are now laced with the reality that a capital gains tax reduction, if it comes at all, will come at a price. All told. would you prefer the Congress and the President to tough. it out on an aconomic growth package. or would you prefer it If they just dropped the whole subject? KUDLOW: I'd like to see them push forward, mostly because I see the primary election results in New Hampshire to be somewhat promising. particularly with regard to Tsongas's victory. Tsongas himself is arguing for a capital gains tax cut and against 6 quick-tix middle-class tax cut. There is a disconnect between Tsongas's views and the views of the Democratic leadership in the Congress. On the other side, the results on the Republican side in New Hampshire will cause Bush to be even tougher on pro-growth tax cuts and against any tax increase. So the political dynamic is changing and I don't think the Democratic leadership is going to necessarily have the last word on this. Furthermore, ! think the public at large would react with hostility toward an increase in the personal income tax because that proposal is not limited to millionaires. This 35 percent rate is going to affect people in the $30,000-to-$60.000 income range -- a constituency both Paul Tsongas and Bill Clinton hope to win back to me Democratic Party, So politically. the rate hike would be a tremendous mistake for the Democrats, and economically, higher income taxes are exactly the wrong medicine right now. All in ali, I think there is plenty of manetivering room to take account of what is happening out there on the campaign trail - -- events which suggest that some of the House and Senate leaders are barking up the wrong tree. BULLETIN: Bush has proposed a 90-day freeze on regulations to help spur economic growth. Do you think regulations nave had that great of an effect on the economy? KUDLOW: Bush reversed the Reagan and Carter deregulatory policies, And in the last three years, we have seen a tremendous surge of regulatory costs on business, particularly. but not limited to. the environmental area. This has created a serious obstacle to business expansion and economic growth, representing a major error in Bush's economic program. : approve of Bush's regulatory freeze. but hasten to ado that the 90-day freeze by itself has no direct bearing on future regulations unless the President appoints a very tough-minded director of the OMB Office of Information and Regulatory Attairs (OIRA), which has been decimated under Darman's OMB leadership. For example. in the Reagan Administration. the people who held that office were people who were committed to deregulation and regulatory cost reduction. To this day, Darman has yet to appoint a permanent policy person to run that office, and that office is al the center of the effort to roll back regulatory costs. The President has not backed up his policy with sufficient personnel changes to generate credibility. BULLETIN: What's your forecast for the economy in the next year? 5 KUDLOW: In real terms, | think the economy will grow by about 2.5 or 3 percent in the next year. Most of this will occur in the second half of 1992 and the first half of 1993. Very little of it will occur in the first half of 1992. That 2.5-3 percent recovery rate is less than half of the normal post-WWI! average recovery. Therefore. it will not significantly reduce the budget deficit nor will it significantly increase employment and incomes. It is a highly unsatisfactory butlook. One of the things that troubles me on this point is that. if you draw out a chart, plotting the average growth di the US economy over the past 40 years. it's been on average a three percent real rate of growth -- and that includes recessions and recoveries. Under the current OME economic projections -- which assume 2.5 percent growth in the next year and about 2.8 percent in the out years - we will not get back to the long-run trend line of three percent growth. The gap by 1997 is three Inilion dollars in lost real output from that long-run baseline. ! refer to that a3 a growth deficit. Secause this economy is expected to recover in a sub-par, anemic fashion. we are threatening the long-run health of our economy and we are falling behind our own 40-year. post-WWII sconomic track record. Implicit in this is the loss of 10 million jobs than would be the case if we could get back on that 40-year trend line. That is a very disturbing. declinist point of view, which is why I believe the Bush Administration should go back to the drawing board and create a much stronger, more incentive-minded tax package. If they don't then I think Paul Tsongas will do it for them. BULLETIN: Do you think that slowdown of growth is made-in-Washington? KUDLOW: I do. The combination of tax increases on capital, real estate, labor, together with regulatory cost burdens have cumulatively acted to hold the economy below its long-run trend line of growth. Unless these policies are reformed. and the obstacles to growth removed, the declinists out there may yet be right. And that would be a tragedy. LAST LAUGHS: 0 Dennis Miller: "President Bush has finally mentioned Buchanan by his name today. Bush is getting better though. It only took him six months to say 'Buchanan.' It took him a year to use the word "recession," (The Denn's Miller Show, 2/20/92) 0 Johnny Carson: "i think [President Bush] is going a little too far with the foiksy image. Today at a press conference he patted Dan Quayle on the head and called him "Opie." (NBC The Tonight Show, 2/20/92) 0 Johnny Carson: "The President is doing everything he can to appear more folksy. The other day in Atlanta he called room service and ordered a 'mess' of caviar." (NBC The Tonight Show, 2/20/92) Copyright @ 1992 by the Bullotin Broadfaxing Network. Reproduction without permission prohibited. The White House Bulletin is published business days by the Bullotin Broapfaxing Network. Alexandria. Virginia -- END OF FAX - 6 DATE: February 21,1992 DAILY NEWS CLIPS The Washinton Post The Washington Times The Wall Street Journal USA Today The New York Times Office of Media Affairs FRIDAY. FEBRI ARY 21. 1992 ThetWashington Post Baker Plans Clinton Camp Stretching A Shakeup In Personnel Front-Runner's Patience By John M. Goshko Tsongas: S.O.B. Reference Inappropriate Washington Post Staff Writer Secretary of State James A. Baker ing himself as the "champion of III is planning a major reshuffling of By David S. Broder farmers." In his latest ad, a nar- senior State Department policymak- and Howard Kurtz ers and ambassadors that will affect Washington Post Staff Writers rator says: "For 17 years, he's,; been battling to save America's areas ranging from U.S. represen- BANGOR, Maine, Feb. 20- tation at the United Nations to ne- family farms on the House and Democratic presidential candi- Senate agricultural committees. gotiating the disposal of the former date Paul E. Tsongas complained Better credit terms, fairer Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal, ac- bitterly tonight about attacks on prices, drought relief, opening cording to department sources. him from the camp of his nearest foreign markets. Tom Harkin The sources said that an inter- other former Soviet republics pos- rival, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, not only fought for those farm" locking, domino-like series of shifts sessing strategic missiles and nu- and said he was ready to retaliate bills, he helped write them." would send Reginald Bartholomew, clear warheads on procedures for if the criticism continued. An ad for Tsongas is narrated undersecretary of state for security collecting, disarming and eventually At a rally here, Tsongas point- by Russ Sauvage, a former foot- affairs, to Brussels to succeed Wil- destroying these weapons. ed to an article in today's edition ball star at the University of liam Howard Taft IV as U.S. am- Many department sources say of USA Today quoting Clinton South Dakota, who says: "I've bassador to the North Atlantic they are puzzled by why Baker wants adviser Paul Begala as saying of known Paul Tsongas for a long Treaty Organization. Frank G. Wis- to move him out of these negotia- the favorable news media cover- time. He comes from a town ner, currently ambassador to the tions while they are at a delicate age of Tsongas: "You live by the that saw hard times, and he's Philippines, would replace Barthol- stage and replace him with Wisner, puff, you die by the puff. That son determined to bring our econ- omew as undersecretary. who has been in the Philippines only of a bitch has lived by the puff. omy back. I'd vote for Paul Richard H. Solomon, currently since last summer. In addition, they and now. Tsongas even if he wasn't mar- assistant secretary for East Asian point out, while Wisner long has Tsongas said he had not joined ried to my daughter, Niki." and Pacific affairs, would become been regarded as one of the fastest other Democrats in criticizing Tsongas also is running his ambassador in Manila, and he would rising stars of the Foreign Service, Clinton when the governor was "swim" ad, which shows him be succeeded as the department's his career has been devoted almost under attack for alleged marital swimming the butterfly stroke, chief Far Eastern expert by William exclusively to African and Middle infidelities and his draft record. on Maryland and District sta- Clark, now ambassador to India. Eastern affairs, and he has no back- "Given the fact that 1 deferred tions. Clinton, who is not yet ad- Thomas R. Pickering, U.N. am- ground in arms control. all that time, when there were so vertising in Maryland, denied that bassador since the start of the Bush Bartholomew, a former ambas- many openings, I'm just asking he has all, but conceded the administration, already had been sador to Spain and Lebanon, will be for equal treatment," Tsongas state's March 3 primary to Tson- tabbed to move to New Delhi, and going to Brussels at a time when said, kicking off his campaign for Edward J. Perkins, director general the Cold War's end has raised ques- gas. Sunday's Maine caucuses. "I'm going to run in Mary- of the Foreign Service, is slated to tions whether NATO, long the "Just because I won the New land," Clinton told reporters in take over as U.N. ambassador. mechanism for the Atlantic Alli- Hampshire primary does not Albany, Ga., recounting his vis- The sources said the reasons for ance's collective military defenses suggest that kind of language is its to the Free State. "I'll be these specific choices, which Baker against the Soviet Union, has any appropriate. If they want to go back there in a couple of days." reportedly has cleared with Presi- reason for continued existence. down that kind of road, I'm In a fresh sign that the Dem- dent Bush, are known only to the However, Baker has put a high pri- quite willing to go down that ocratic nominee probably will be secretary and his small inner circle ority on maintaining NATO as a road with them. I would hope one of the five declared candi- of aides. Some sources said the best political alliance so that it can pro- that kind of thing will cease." dates, House Majority Leader explanation they have been given is vide an institutional setting for a Begala said he attempted to Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) that Baker agrees with the policy, continued U.S. presence in Europe. reach Tsongas headquarters said that Tuesday's New Hamp- adopted under former secretary of Unlike the others, who are ca- today to apologize for the term shire primary has not changed state George P. Shultz, of rotating reer diplomats, Solomon is a former "I often use to describe myself his mind about the decision he senior personnel at three-year inter- political science professor. Before and even my candidate in jest," made last July against running vals to bring fresh perspectives to taking the East Asia post in 1989, the Associated Press reported. for president. "I made my de- bear on major international issues. he served as director of the depart- "Even though I meant nothing cision. It was a firm decision However, while most have com- ment's policy planning staff. Clark's negative or nasty, it's some- then, it's a firm decision now," pleted three years in their current Foreign Service career has been thing I shouldn't have said, and I Gephardt said. posts, some of the impending spent largely in Asian affairs. want to apologize to Senator changes have raised eyebrows The decision to move Pickering Tsongas for saying it." Broder reported from Maine, among department officials. has raised eyebrows in diplomatic In South Dakota, the images Kurtz from Washington. Staff Bartholomew, for example, has circles because of his reputation as are more pastoral, and farmers writers Kenneth J. Cooper in held the security undersecretary's one of the most effective U.S. rep- are making their first appear- Washington and David job from the outset of the admin- resentatives at the United Nations. ance in campaign ads. Maraniss in Georgia istration. In recent months, how- Perkins served under President Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin is bill- contributed to this report. ever, he has become the principal Ronald Reagan as this country's first U.S. negotiator with Russia and the black ambassador to South Africa. I read this in the Chicago Tribune magazine: "Children today are tyrants. They contradict their parents, gobble their food and tyrannize their teachers.-Socrates (470-399 B.C.)" So what's new?-G.L., Akron, Ohio House Democrats Scuttle Corporate Income Tax Cut Leadership's Proposal for 1% Reduction Scrapped to Satisfy Members Unhappy With $90 Billion Revenue Plan By Eric Pianin ital gains tax provisions are more Mitchell (D-Maine) in calling for an opposed using defense savings for that prevent defense money from generous to the wealthy than Pres- increase in taxes on the rich to pay tax relief. being shifted to domestic programs. Washington Post Staff Writer ident Bush's proposal and that the for the tax package-possibly along Byrd and others have proposed The House Democratic economic House Democratic leaders yes- package does more to advance the the lines of the millionaires' surtax changing the 1990 budget agree- package was formally introduced terday scrapped a proposal to re- party's political agenda than to help and the increase in the top income ment to allow Congress to shift bil- late yesterday, after Ways and FRIDAY. FEBRU 21. 1992 TheWashington Post duce the corporate income tax rate the economy or hold down the def- tax rate adopted last week by the lions of dollars from the defense bud- Means Democrats lopped off the by one percentage point in a move icit. House Ways and Means Committee get to pay for domestic programs proposed cut in the corporate tax to reassure Democrats who are un- "I find it incredibly ironic that at Democrats. and public works projects as a means rate and a proposed one percentage comfortable with their party's $90 the same time the effects of the sup- Bentsen said he told members of of stimulating the economy. point reduction in the corporate billion tax proposal and say it does ply-side economic binge of the '80s the Senate Democratic caucus yes- Office of Management and Bud- alternative minimum tax rate. too much for the wealthy. are crashing down on the shoulders terday that "any tax cuts that we get Director Richard G. Darman Many Democrats complained For the second day in a row, of every American family, we appar- made would be balanced with tax this week hinted that the adminis- that the provisions, costing $17 bil- House Democrats complained to ently have a faction of the party that increases; that we would not look to tration might go along with a lion over five years, were too gen- Speaker Thomas S. Foley (D- thinks the proper response is to re- the peace dividend, that we would change in the budget agreement for erous for the business community. Wash.) and other leaders about the peat the mistakes of the '80s," said stay within the tax structure." increased domestic spending, if Moreover, corporate lobbyists, who details of the middle-class tax relief Rep. David R. Obey (D-Wis.). Late last year, Bentsen proposed Congress agrees to impose spend- were miffed by another provision and economic growth package, Meanwhile, Senate Finance Com- using a 5 percent cut in defense ing ceilings on some mandatory aimed at penalizing companies that which will be sent to the floor for a mittee Chairman Lloyd Bentsen spending to pay for a $300 tax cred- spending programs, other than So- pay their top executives more than vote next week. (D-Tex.) announced that he has it for children 18 and under and to cial Security and Medicare. $1 million annually, did practically Foley predicted that the bill abandoned his proposal to pay for once again make all individuals el- Yesterday, the House Govern- nothing to save the corporate tax would be approved, despite grum- middle-class tax relief and economic igible for a fully deductible $2,000 ment Operations Committee ap- rate reduction. bling within the Democratic caucus growth measures by shifting money individual retirement account. How- proved a bill introduced by its chair- The bulk of the savings from and nearly unanimous opposition from the defense budget. ever, Senate Appropriations Com- man, Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D- eliminating the two provisions will from Republicans. However, some Instead, Bentsen joined with Sen- mittee Chairman Robert C. Byrd Mich.) that would alter the agree- go for deficit reduction, Ways and Democrats complained that the cap- ate Majority Leader George J. (D-W.Va.) and others have bitterly ment by eliminating the "fire walls" Means aides said. FRIDAY. FEBRI ARY 21.1992 The Washington Post against it being that it would de- then reopened, with the argument But the debate over strategy was Super Tuesday March 10. state that votes between now and attack and do it in almost every the 1988 primary races: Go on the president should do what he did in Washington insider and that the taxing, big-spending, uncaring be allowed to define Bush as a big- decided that Buchanan should not visers and strategists. They then tion, campaign and outside GOP ad- primary, according to administra- did not lose the New Hampshire relief Tuesday that the president Bush and his aides reacted with campaign across the South. on Buchanan directly in an intensive tative decision Wednesday to take had second thoughts about a ten- Bush and his senior aides yesterday Patrick J. Buchanan, President with the conservative challenge of bate over over how best to deal In another sign of the internal de- Washington Post Staff Writer By Ann Devroy See BUSH, A8, Col. 1 country debating with Patrick Bu- Bush will "not be going around the swered" but said that primarily paign, his charges "will be an- where Buchanan is running a cam- Marlin Fitzwater said that in states White House press secretary "presidentiality." main above the fray to retain his advertising if needed, and will re- surrogates and perhaps television leave the defining of Buchanan to said yesterday. is that Bush will The likely compromise. officials are running against ourselves." What they didn't want was us. We voters did not want Buchanan. test vote. Most of the Buchanan against Buchanan. That was a pro- Hampshire to say we are running a fundamental misreading of New chanan, just another candidate. It is ident in the same category as Bu- to the strategy. "It puts the pres- country," said one adviser opposed an and chasing after him across the ident down in the mud with Buchan- "It is just suicidal to put the pres- on-the authority of his office. prive Bush of his greatest weap- President May Rely on Aura of Office Strategy Toward Buchanan Bush Campaign Rethinks Bush Campaign Has Second Thoughts on Challenger and campaign into what one aide day-not a loss but a setback-was sional Republicans who he said BUSH, From A1 called a "hurricane of meetings" in interpreted by Bush and his advis- "have little faith" in the ability of the chanan" but instead outlining his trying to decide not only what to ers as a call for change, but not fun- White House and campaign to de- program. say about such a devastating out- damental change. vise and stick with a strategy that Buchanan signaled that his crit- come, if it occurred, but also what In interviews Wednesday, Tee- strengthens Bush's position without icism of Bush will be getting more to do next. ter, Fitzwater and others said alienating conservatives, while at pointed by delivering before a con- To a kind of guerrilla faction in Bush's policies and message would the same time dealing with the servative audience yesterday a the administration and Congress not be altered but that his campaign broader question of voter discon- slashing attack on the president for who have contended that there are tactics would be different. tent with Bush. signing the 1991 Civil Rights Act. problems with Bush's message, Buchanan's opposition to the Per- Virtually all Bush's advisers are And the debate over how to handle there seemed to be an opening to sian Gulf War would be one likely convinced he will defeat Buchanan him reflects the flood of solicited make the case they had made for a target for Bush's efforts to "define" but are strongly divided on how and unsolicited advice from worried year: That a fundamental change his opponent, officials said. much Buchanan's attacks can harm Republicans that has poured into was needed. But yesterday, a source said the the president's standing for the the campaign and White House fol- One of that group, a House Re- use of the war will be framed not as general election campaign. They lowing the New Hampshire prima- publican, said yesterday, "The pres- an issue of patriotism or as an effort are equally divided over how to han- ry. Bush got 53 percent of the total ident is not giving the voters a rea- to reignite the support Bush had dle Buchanan's conservative con- in the state; Buchanan, 37, and oth- son to vote for him. This is an elec- then, but as a leadership question. stituencey so as not to alienate the ers, 10. tion in which the voters are saying, "We want to talk about the war basis of the GOP presidential coali- Campaign Chairman Robert M. 'What are you going to do for me not to say Buchanan is not a patriot, tion in a way that would keep con- Teeter warned Bush at mid-day tomorrow,' not 'What did you do for but to say, 'Hey, look, this president servatives from voting in Novem- Tuesday that the early exit polling me yesterday.' Talking about his R faced a crsis and handled it brilliant- ber. in New Hampshire indicated there and D initiative doesn't do it." ly. He is the only one in the field Bush and his team of establish- was a chance he might lose, accord- The R and D reference was to whose response in the crisis is ment Republican advisers, one ing to two senior officials. the trip Bush took Wednesday to known and seen.' source said, "are having a lot of Officials said Teeter had gone promote research and development Sources inside the campaign and trouble understanding what Bu- into the primary with four possible funding in his economic package in White House say there is consider- chanan wants, why he is doing this." scenarios, the worst being a Bush a bland speech that got no news able confusion and division-al- Bush, one official said, "has never win in the high-40s. But he had pre- coverage. though not panic-over where had a real protest candidate running viously told Bush all available ev- What was covered, the Repub- Bush should go from here. against him. It's like a weird animal idence indicated he would win by a lican pointed out, were Bush's com- Adding to the division is what one he's got here. 'What's he want? 25-point margin. The warning of a ments-on Buchanan. House GOP source called. a "very How can we get him to stop? How possible loss sent the White House The eventual outcome Tues- sour" mood among some congres- can he be serious?" Buchanan Slashes Bush FRIDAY. FEBRI ABY 21, 1992 For Civil Rights Action The Washington Post Law Said to Foster Reverse Discrimination' March 3 primary in Georgia his By E. J. Dionne Washington Post Staff Writer next stand against Bush and will have an advantage there because In a slashing attack on President Duke, the former Ku Klux Klan Bush that married the resentments leader who also is running for the of race and class, Patrick J. Buchan- Republican presidential nomination; an pointed his presidential cam- is not on the Georgia ballot. Bu- paign squarely toward the upcom- chanan's remarks suggested that he ing primaries in the South by charg- will target the same constituency of ing the president with signing a civil low- to moderate-income whites rights bill that would lead' to "re- who flocked to Duke's Senate and verse discrimination." gubernatorial campaigns in Louisi- Speaking to a receptive audience ana. at the annual meeting of the Con- House Minority Whip Newt Gin- servative Political Action Confer- grich (R-Ga.), who also spoke to the ence, Buchanan used the highly conservatives, said afterward that charged rhetoric familiar to sup- he expected Buchanan to get 25 to porters of former Alabama govern- 35 percent of the Georgia vote be- or George C. Wallace and former cause of dissatisfaction with Bush. Louisiana state representative Da- In his address, Buchanan contin- vid Duke to assail the well-born, ued to assail Bush's tax and eco- Yale-educated Bush for signing the nomic policies, but his speech marked a shift in focus to social and 1991 Civil Rights Act. Arguing that the law would result racial issues designed to win sup- in racial quotas, Buchanan declared: port in the upcoming southern con- tests. "Now, if you belong to the Exeter- For example, Buchanan also at- Yale GOP club, that's not going to tacked Bush for increasing funding bother you greatly, because as we for the National Endowment for the know, it is not their children who Arts. He called the endowment "the "There is no democracy in Ku- zawa, suggesting that Bush and the get bused out of South Boston into upholstered playpen of the arts and wait," Buchanan said. "Mr. Bush, Japanese are SO close that "a Bush- Roxbury, it is not their brothers crafts auxiliary of the eastern lib- who denounced [Iraqi President] Miyazawa ticket" may be in the who lose contracts because of mi- eral establishment" and said it had Saddam Hussein, is now playing making. nority set-asides, it is not the scions been "subsidizing both filthy and footsie with [Syrian President] Asked about Buchanan's re- of Yale and Harvard who apply to blasphemous art." Hafez al-Assad, who is a character marks, Torie Clarke, press secre- become FBI agents and construc- Referring to two of the most con- at least as repulsive. tary for the Bush campaign, issued tion workers and civil servants and troversial artists supported by the "Mr. Bush said, our enemy is not a mild riposte. "If Pat Buchanan cops, who bear the onus of this re- NEA, Buchanan added: "I really the Iraqi people, it is Saddam Hus- wants to discuss the war and civil verse discrimination. don't care what Andres Serrano sein, and yet the Iraqi economy is rights, that's fine, because it's very "It is the sons of middle America does with his bodily fluids or what destroyed. Iraqi children are starv- clear who's got the upper hand on who pay the price of reverse dis- Mr. [Robert] Mapplethorpe does ing, and Saddam Hussein sits on his those issues," she-said. "The pres- crimination advanced by the Walk- with that bullwhip, as long as we throne," Buchanan added. ident fought very hard for three er's Point GOP to salve their social taxpayers don't have to pay for it." Buchanan's aggressiveness on years and finally got civil rights leg- consciences at other people's ex- Buchanan also sought to antici- the war issue may simply reflect his islation without quotas." pense," Buchanan said. "If I am pate attacks in the pro-military passions on the subject, but his fer- A sharper response to his com- elected, my friends, I will go South on his opposition to the Per- vor may have been heightened by ments on civil rights came from through this administration, de- sian Gulf War. Buchanan was care- polls suggesting that the war is a William L. Taylor, vice chairman of partment by department and agen- ful to praise Bush as an "excellent" far less important issue than it was the Citizens Commission on Civil cy by agency, and root out the commander-in-chief. But far from a year ago. Rights, a group of former federal, whole rotten infrastructure of re- downplaying his stand on the war, Turning his attention to another officials. "It is, unforunately, noth- verse discrimination, root and Buchanan insisted he had been right country, Buchanan dismissed crit- ing new," he said. "But it sets a hor- branch." all along and assailed Bush's gulf ical remarks about him from Japa- rible tone for the campaign that's Buchanan has vowed to make the policies. nese Prime Minister Kiichi Miya- coming up." were doing," he said. results. The discrepancy was exacer- seemed to be ashamed of what they "Bush people going to the polls the poll than Bush supporters. were more willing to participate in who were interviewed and who ers" among the 1,848 Republicans strongly committed Buchanan vot- crepancy was a result of bunch of of Mitofsky speculated that the dis- polls for CBS. previously directed surveys and exit thing that bad," said Mitofsky, who point margin; I've never done any- Buchanan by 5 points. That's a 10- percentage points and overstating had VRS "understating Bush by 5 nal poll results for the GOP primary to the election outcome. But the fi- ocratic side were virtually identical The exit poll results on the Dem- edged yesterday. executive director of VRS, acknowl- Republican race," Warren Mitofsky, "There was a terrible skew in the 16-point margin. beating Buchanan by 53 to 37-a rick J. Buchanan. Bush ended up with only a 6-point lead over Pat- exit poll showed President Bush explanation of why the final VRS why votes are cast, is looking for an other clients with information on vides the television networks and Surveys, the organization that pro- Specifically, Voter Research and exit poll are trying to explain the conduct the most widely reported New Hampshire and the people who The final returns are in from Washington Post Staff Writer By Richard Morin the day. shape interpretation for much of That early perception helped same thing: a tie. subsequent update showed the percent of the projected vote. And a chanan deadlocked, each with 49 GOP numbers showed Bush and Bill Clinton of Arkansas. But percentage-point margin over E. Tsongas holding a former Massachusetts senator was shaping up as predicted, On the Democratic side, cluding The Washington Post. tions that had bought the survey 2:30 for the other news organiza- the four network sponsors places, were available at 2 p.m. voters as they left selected polling based on about 600 interviews- The first results of the close their race was. to be an exaggerated view of deadlocked, painted what turned sults showing Bush and Buchanen largely based on early exit Those early characterizations, that they did it. ing to do that, and I was surprised body agreed that they weren in attitude by the networks. among the guilty. "That's a change and its chief competitor ABC, ing that his former employer, CBS, closed at 7 p.m., Mitofsky said, tion," before most of the acterizing the outcome of the elec- "There was an awful lot of Hampshire. ners before the polls closed in New not to release results or pick wis not the terms, of their agreement its sponsors to violate the spirital bated by the willingness of some of Tries to Explain Results Conductor of Exit Poll FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 TheWashington Post the personal experiences he has for the sake of the nation, hopefully ruptcy won't make Bush homeless, "Although the Houstonian's bank- Texas Democrats yesterday. nomic recession was not lost on Suite 271. This bit of irony amid the eco- tax. And now Bush may not have idence. Texas has no state income Houstonian Hotel as his legal res- Texan, claiming Suite 271 in the But come tax time, Bush is a joy Atlantic breezes. race around the golf course and en- the cigarette boat into the water, bunkport, Maine, fast enough to put mer, Bush cannot get to Kenne- Come vacation time each sum- the Beltway? lishment poohbah from well inside have it-a big-government, estab- he-as Patrick J. Buchanan would of Walker's Point in Maine? Or, is fish-chasing, lobster-eating squire of boy from Texas? Is he the blue- eating country music fan and good Is Bush an oil-drilling. pork-rind- anew-Where is he from? Bush for most of his adult life rose Thus, an issue that has dogged bankruptcy protection. to his door yesterday. They filed for that he calls home brought reality woe, owners of the Houston hotel sulated from Americans' economic cern that President Bush is too in- shire primary evidenced public con- Two days after the New Hamp- Special to The Washington Post By Christopher B. Daly tax. Sunday Telegram Feb. 2 saying, placed a full-page ad in the Maine national Citizen's Action group, The alliance, affiliated with the interview from Portland. not to," Christie said in a telephone can afford to pay this. He chooses He's a very wealthy man, and he voted for Bush, but this isn't right.' "People are calling up and saying, 'I mental, health and consumer issues. statewide group active in environ- of the Maine People's Alliance, a George Christie, executive director but we think it's sleazy.". said "What Bush is doing is not illegal, in Texas but pays no state income spends much more time there than lion estate in Kennebunkport and because Bush maintains a $2.2 mil- neighbors expressed unhappiness scheduled Sunday, some of Bush's presidential-preference caucus is In Maine, where a nonbinding photos for his stay. hotel staff will bring out the family there. If custom is followed, the next Thursday and Friday nights nights in 1991. Bush plans to spend that he was "home" only three newspaper columnists have noted eral manager, although several cording to Jim Sugarman, the gen- about 10 to 15 nights a year, ac- Bush stays at the Houstonian utive director. Ed Martin, the state party's exec- to turn the economy around," said more than election-year gimmicks message across: It's going to take gone through will finally get the For Bush, There's No Place Quite Like Home Opens Bankruptcy Case President's Texas Address ship." owe contributed to this report. Hudson in Austin, Tex., special correspondent Elizabeth Staff writer John E. Yang and where he lives." Avenue in Washington-that's is a resident of 1600 Pennsylvania ing back: "As everybody knows, he One more thing, Foster said, call- He spent his adult life there." as. He represented it in Congress. pay. His official residence is in Tex- "He pays every tax he is supposed to $25,000 in Maine property taxes. day, noting that Bush pays more than secretary Gary Foster said yester- tired of addressing the address issue. are writing that it isn't fair." Maine. Even the Maine Republicans tion of anti-Bush feeling comes from "Certainly, the highest concentra- Andy Welch, Sharp's spokesman. these coming from Maine," said icate of "honorary Texas citizen- hate taxes. He sends back a certif- those who say they love Texas or more than 43,000 coupons from in Texas someday. Sharp (D), saying they intend to live Texas State Comptroller John a coupon that readers could mail to idency in Texas. The strip provided "like the prez" and declare legal res- "Doonesbury" comic strip to do ry Trudeau told readers of his of health care." "provide 330 poor kids with a year hire eight public school teachers, or $165,000-enough, it noted, to ing Maine income tax, he would the ad said that, had Bush been pay- January issue of Money magazine, your taxes." "This is all a farce," deputy press White House aides seem to be "We see a large percentage of Sharp has been swamped with On the same day, cartoonist Gar- Maine Quoting figures culled from the "George Bush: Read our lips. Pay about South Dakota Becomes Political Battlefield Vote Likely to Produce Casualty; Tsongas Faces First Real Test Outside New England take its course. For them, next Tuesday's South shire in the aspirations of its Democrats. "Dem- By Edward Walsh Dakota primary is widely seen as a sort of demo- ocratic people are looking for a winner," said Washington Post Staff Writer lition derby, with the loser's campaign almost Alan L. Clem, professor of political science at the SIOUX FALLS, S.D., Feb. 20-Last Novem- certain to be left a wreck. University of South Dakota. Clem added that "if ber, after a state party dinner in Des Moines, For Tsongas, the primary will be his first real Clinton can survive these negatives, they could three of the five Democratic presidential con- test outside his native New England and will be go for him." tenders chartered aircraft and flew to a horse closely watched for evidence of his potential na- Tsongas made it clear today that he has no farm north of here for an appearance before the tional appeal. And for Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, intention of matching wits on agriculture policy South Dakota party faithful. The other two-Ed- the New Hampshire runner-up, South Dakota with his two Farm Belt opponents. A day after mund G. "Jerry" Brown Jr. and Paul E. Tson- offers a chance to finish ahead of Tsongas and Harkin, he too toured the Sioux Falls Stock gas-got left behind because they could not af- perhaps one of the Farm Belt senators. Yards, ending up in the pig auction arena where' ford to rent a plane. Suddenly South Dakota, out of the way and he stood on a floor covered with straw in front of What a difference one election can make. accustomed to being not much more than a blip a sign that said, "Not an official weight." Today, Tsongas finally made it to South Dakota between New Hampshire and the March 10 Su- Tsongas promised to "listen and learn" while in his own chartered plane. The winner of Tues- per Tuesday primaries, has become a battle- campaigning in South Dakota. "I don't pretend to day's New Hampshire Democratic primary was ground. All five of the candidates will be in the be an expert. on some of the issues that affect greeted by local reporters curious to see how the state this weekend for a debate Sunday and oth- this part of the country," he said. New Englander would deal with the mysterious er campaign events. But Tsongas, without naming Harkin, assailed complexities of farm policy. He also was greeted It is both different and the same as the first proponents of "protectionist, Japan-bashing" pol- by a sure sign of his new status after New Hamp- battleground in New Hampshire. Farm prices icies that he said could ignite a trade war in which shire-a few shots from his opponents. are depressed, but unlike in New Hampshire the one of the main casualties would be the agricultural Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) started it Wednes- overall economy here is far healthier than it was exports of South Dakota and other farm states. day when he accused Tsongas of being "one of the in the 1980s, when this region went through a Tsongas said he considered South Dakota a cheerleaders for the Reagan economic program" wrenching economic retrenchment while much battle chiefly between Harkin and Kerrey, and while in the Senate. Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.) of the rest of the country, including New Eng- he declined to say whether he expected to finish continued today, describing Tsongas as a "corpor- land, was booming. ahead of Clinton here. "Winning is not something ate lawyer who is a registered lobbyist in Wash- Off the farms, the economy is in even better we expect," he said. ington" rather than a "Washington outsider." shape. Earlier this week, the Sioux Falls Argus But for Harkin and Kerrey, not winning here "At least I got their attention," Tsongas replied Leader published a front-page story on how nation- could mean for their campaigns the fate described today. "If I'm such a regional candidate, why are al publications have discovered the city as "a haven on a sign near the pig arena where Tsongas spoke. they spending time on me? If I'm a regional can- from the recession." The state has an aging pop- "The Sioux Falls Livestock Market will no didate, why not let natural events take their ulation, much of it in small towns, and health care, longer receive non-ambulatory livestock," the course?" Kerrey's chief issue, is a prime concern. sign said. "Animals arriving in that condition will Harkin and Kerrey cannot risk letting nature But South Dakota is the same as New Hamp- be euthanized humanely." Rowland Evans and Robert Novak After New Hampshire: Two Deluded Parties George Bush's political lieutenants, At the White House, Bush opera- possible 30 to 40 percent showing in The truest post-New Hampshire sist Gephardt in his reentry. On the relieved that the president's embar- tives believe the spin they provide the every state right up through reces- conclusion by the White House is that other side of the Capitol, Sen. Lloyd rassment in New Hampshire was not news media: The 18-percentage-point sion-torn California June 2. In the the Democrats are George Bush's Bentsen seemed ready to heed pleas deeper, conclude that the worst is victory by the president is a great South, Buchanan can unleash the ra- secret weapons. That Clinton is once from colleagues and become a candi- over and await easier southern en- feat; no place is so unfavorable for cial quota issue abandoned by Bush. again favored to be nominated after date. counters against Pat Buchanan. Bush as economically desolate New The fear of GOP pros is that Bush dropping one-third of the votes given Not after New Hampshire's re- Democratic politicians, noting adu- Hampshire; nowhere can Buchanan will react by attacking Buchanan as an him by the polls 17 days before the turns. On Tuesday night, Gephardt lation heaped on Bill Clinton for fin- concentrate the time and money he extremist. The spectacle in New primary is attributable to an adoring decided to stay in Congress, and Car- ishing second in the opening primary, lavished on one little state; in the Hampshire of a Republican president news media, accepting his claim of rick flew back to the coast the next The Washington Post conclude that the governor of Arkan- conservative South, where the econo- assailing the "far right" could be re- being the comeback kid. day. That was not because of the win FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 sas has surmounted his troubles and my is not so bad, Bush will sail home peated across the country. The New Hampshire primary had by Tsongas, whose apostasies from will pass cleanly through southern easily. Privately, they complain Bush The answer is for Bush not to been seen by Democratic politicians Democratic orthodoxy (pro-business, primaries to a November encounter himself refused to release a TV com- attack Buchanan (as he signaled as the means to emancipate them anti-protectionist, refusal to take or- with destiny. mercial indicting Buchanan as a critic Wednesday that he would) but to zero from a choice between Clinton, bur- ders from organized labor) make him These baroque conclusions drawn of Desert Storm. in on the Democratic-controlled Con- dened with questions of character, so different from Gephardt. from the results in New Hampshire All this obscures the reality con- gress and try somehow to dissociate and Tsongas, whose victory did not Gephardt and Bentsen dropped out suggest two disordered political par- fronting Bush. Exit-poll interviews himself from inside-the-Beltway wis- erase doubts about his electability. because Bill Clinton's vote was 26 ties. Just as the Republican high com- confirm that the president's record in dom that led to his 1990 tax increase House Majority Leader Richard percent instead of 21 percent. That mand had convinced itself that Bu- office has ripped not only the conser- and his decision to postpone his prom- Gephardt, toughened and tested in feat was exalted by reporters he has chanan was no real threat in New vative movement but the fabric of the ised middle-class tax breaks. The Hampshire, it now blinds itself to Republican Party, with Buchanan vot- the 1988 presidential run, had confid- charmed and by liberal special inter- president's first speech after New Bush's weakness nationwide. Demo- ers saying they would prefer a Demo- Hampshire, addressing the Knoxville ed to colleagues he was ready to est groups that view him as much cratic leaders see themselves as pow- crat to Bush. Chamber of Commerce, took a timid enter the race if last Tuesday's vote safer than Tsongas. Here is one justi- His credibility boosted by his per- first step in that direction, but genteel count revealed a vacuum. Bill Carrick, fiable cause for satisfaction at the erless to prevent the nomination of Clinton, the candidate many of them ceived performance in New Hamp- Congress-bashing was submerged in the astute Los Angeles-based political White House after New Hampshire. view as most vulnerable against Bush. consultant, flew to Washington to as- 01992, Creators Syndicate, Inc. shire, Buchanan is propelled into a bureaucratic prose. Robert Kuttner The Democrats' Tax Muddle At a moment when the Republican economic To some extent, this is tactical posturing, intend- the majority view among congressional Democrats program has plainly faitered, the Democrats have Paul Tsongas happens to ed to produce a bill that a majority of Democrats is not the majority view of the whole House. That's an unparalleled opportunity to distinguish their can support but that the president will veto. But why the House Democratic Caucus is furning. economic philosophy from that of the Republicans. share many of President underlying this jockeying for turf is confusion about "We're hopelessly scrambling the message, and it's But the Democrats are in real danger of squander- which of several possible courses makes the most not even going to do anything for the economy," ing the opportunity. The reasons have to do with Democratic confu- Bush's views on business political and economic sense. says one despairing congressman. Is it better to tax the wealthy to provide tax Complicating the Democrats' task is the race for sion about their fundamental principles, with the tax relief. relief for the middle class? Or to tax the wealthy to FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 ThetVashington Post the Democratic presidential nomination. The Dem- conflicting logic of presidential and legislative poli- provide money to generate new investment? Apart ocrat who won the New Hampshire primary hap- tics, and with the fragmentation of Congress itself. from who pays the taxes, should the revenues be pens to share many of President Bush's views on The most immediate problem is the role of used to reduce the deficit? Or should taxes be cut, business tax relief. Not surprisingly, Paul Tsongas tax-writing committees of Congress. These com- decided to defer the portion of his own recovery even if that means a bigger deficit, in order to ran strongest among the most affluent New Hamp- mittees-House Ways and Means and Senate package that awarded tax relief to the middle class. Finance-have immense power to bestow tax Here at last was a chance for Democrats to stimulate recovery now? Should the peace dividend shire Democrats. This does not bode well for embarrass the White House and get back on the be invested, or spent on tax relief or used for deficit Democrats' ability to differentiate themselves from breaks on industry; their members invariably reap reduction? Republicans on tax and budget issues. the most special-interest campaign money, and side of the working stiff. in pressing a middle-class tax cut, the Demo- Finally consider this: If Tsongas or his New they attract lobbyists like a picnic attracts ants. But by the time the bill came back from the Ways and Means Committee to the Democratic crats have opened themselves to the charge that Hampshire runner-up, Bill Clinton, continues to To be a member of a tax-writing committee is to seem implausible as the nominee, the heavyweight be in a perpetual state of moral hazard. "The Ways Caucus on Wednesday, it included a cut in the they are merely pandering to the voters, not and Means Committee is SO rotten that even the corporate income tax rate and full indexation of addressing the recession. But that, I think, is unfair. most likely to be lured off the Democratic bench to capital gains taxes, consuming most of the revenue For better than a decade, Republican policies have run for president is Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, good guys on the committee lose their compass," says one influential Democratic aide. "Most cong- to be raised by the higher taxes on the well-off. shifted the tax burden from the well-off to the the chairman of the tax-writing Senate Finance ressmen and senators never see three-quarters of The business tax cuts were to be permanent, middle class. It is good policy as well as smart Committee and the most Republican of all the the lobbyists in town, because the lobbyists only while the tax relief for the middle class was to politics to restore tax equity, quite apart from senior Democrats in his views of taxing and work those two committees." phase out after two years. In effect, the money whatever strategy is devised to promote a recov- spending. So, one way or another, the muddle in On Feb. 12 the House Democratic Caucus raised by taxing the rich would be recycled ery. the Democrats' economic message is, likely to right back to the rich. The Democratic Caucus, It is also sensible policy to increase federal continue. agreed that the Democrats should devise a tax and budget plan that maximized the distance between dismayed with the product, then voted to direct the borrowing during a recession, in order to generate themselves and President Bush. The Democratic Ways and Means Committee Democrats to scrap a recovery that will then reduce deficits over the Note: In a recent column I criticized the economist plan would include a tax hike on the very rich, tax the bill and return with a more plausibly Democrat- long term. What ought to divide Democrats from Charles Schultze for believing the economy could relief for the broad middle class, and narrowly ic plan. Yesterday, the Ways and Means Commit- Republicans is the question of where that spending "deflate its way to recovery.' This description was targeted tax incentives for business only as a tee Democrats tentatively agreed to kill the corpo- should go: to public investment and tax relief for overly glib and also misleading: Schultze does temporary recovery measure. rate tax cut-but retained other tax preferences the middle class, or to tax relief for the affluent. advocate greater fiscal discipline for the long term, Democrats seemingly were well positioned to for business. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats decid- However, just enough conservative Democrats but he supports deficit spending in the current carry out this strategy, since the president had ed not to spend the peace dividend on tax relief. share essentially Republican economic views that recession. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 The Washington Post The third source of distortion is the echo chamber effect. Once a media consensus is reached about the meaning Charles Krauthammer of the numbers-a process that takes at most an hour or two of network time- the verdict is endlessly repeated and Curious lovingly embellished into some grand over-interpretation. The most astonish- ing example of this effect-it still in- spires awe-is the great "new ideas" Campaign bubble that followed Gary Hart's (unex- pected) nine-point win over Walter Mondale in New Hampshire 1984. It Arithmetic generated a media bounce so huge (if brief) that Hart was able to carry Flori- da, for example, on momentum alone. Today's beneficiary of media bounce Campaign arithmetic keeps getting is Buchanan. Having beaten the 40 curiouser. Bush beats Buchanan in New percent hurdle the media had estab- Hampshire by 16 points-twice the lished for him (in fact, he finished with margin of his 1988 "landslide" over 37 përcent, but early returns had him Dukakis-and the New York Times over 40), he "won." But that will not last front page speaks of "Buchanan's near- long. It is absolutely guaranteed: If in triumph." the coming primaries Buchanan contin- On the Democratic side, Bill Clinton ues to run strong but second (say, comes in nine points behind Paul Tson- between 30 and 45 percent), the bloom gas and the media declare Clinton res- will be off. The media will create a new urrected. Four years ago in New standard. The question will be, "Where Hampshire, Bob Dole came in nine does he win one?" If Buchanan cannot points behind George Bush and Dole produce a clear triumph in any one was declared decisively beaten. state, he will have failed to meet expec- The nice thing about the general tations and he will be said to have "lost." election in November is that the winner But what did he "win"? No doubt, is determined by addition: You add up New Hampshire demonstrated a large, the electoral votes and see who got indeed ominous reservoir of Republican more. It doesn't matter a whit what the ill feeling toward Bush. Exit polls media say about it. In the primaries, showed that more than half the Bu- however, raw votes mean nothing. chanan vote was a "send a message" Winners are determined by divination: protest and that almost a third of Re- the people speak in numbers, but the publicans would not vote for Bush' in media get to translate them into words. November. But a "near triumph" for Translation is an inherently distorting Buchanan? Buchanan won in an ex- enterprise. First, it is the early returns tremely conservative state at the bot- that produce the prime-time TV head- tom of a deep recession against a lines and shape the story. Trouble is, the president with no message, no pro- early returns are often wrong. Early on gram, and no convictions. (To say noth- Tuesday night, Buchanan and Bush ing of the fact that the one statewide were running neck and neck. The gap newspaper acted, in effect, as a Bu- between them did not get really wide chanan campaign organ.) until it was over. By then the the story Consider one totally overlooked New line had been set and the legerid Hampshire result: 10 percent of the launched: Buchanan's near triumph. It is Republican electorate-six times more almost as if the late returns don't count. than in 1988-voted for minor candi- Second, the early deciders don't ei- dates, or wrote-in Democrats. That ther. The media play not just the ex- means that more than 20 percent of pectations game but a peculiar kind of the anti-Bush protest vote could not expectations game: the late expecta- bear to pull the lever for Buchanan, the tions game. The winner is the guy who protest candidate. does better on Tuesday than he was Nonetheless, Buchanan's New expected to on the preceding Saturday. Hampshire "win" will now enter conser- It is almost as if those voters who made vative lore. It will help him immensely up their minds before the last weekend in his attempt to make his '92 campaign don't count. The winner is the one who a replay of Reagan's in '76 and thus a wins the late deciders over the last gateway to the White House four years weekend. from now. The game plan is simple: Take Clinton. He was declared Challenge a weak Republican incum- healthy after New Hampshire because bent, weakening him further and estab- he beat the expectations game. By that lishing yourself as the leader of a cen- we mean the expectations of Saturday, servative insurgency. The doubly when he was 20 points behind Tsongas. weakened president falls in November By that standard, finishing nine points to a mediocre Democrat, say a relative- behind translates into a comeback. The ly unknown southern governor. The fact that Clinton was 20 points ahead a Democrat messes up, and four years month ago counts for nothing. It is the later you ride in from the right, reclaim last media guess that counts. Beat it, the party, and win it all. and bask. I doubt that Buchanan can take. the Similarly, Buchanan was stuck at plan as far as Reagan. Buchanan's around 30 percent until the last week brand of conservatism is simply too of the campaign. When he finished near angry, too narrow, and too bigoted. A 40, that 10-point jump exceeded the subject the media might turn to-as latest expectations and made him the soon as they get over celebrating his winner. New Hampshire "victory." Vietnam-Mortal Thoughts At my last visit to the Vietnam War Since the Vietnam disaster has been drawn a low number. he would have Memorial. I found the point in time on swept into the political campaign, it been drafted and very likely sent to the chronological roll of the dead at would only be fair to Gov. Clinton as Vietnam. which my own commitment in work well as to the electorate to have the The facts suggest Gov. Clinton is against the war became firm. At that results of a public opinion poll that would sincere in saying he decided to make point, more than 20,000 had been killed. ask: himself available for the draft. He had If the war had ended then, 1.. :e than (1) With the benefit of hindsight. do not entered into the cadet contract it- TheWashington Post 30,000 would have been spared. you agree or disagree with the position self: he had only agreed to enroll in the As presidential candidates have been taken by Gov. Clinton and his fellow future. That agreement was unenforce- asked to account for their actions during FRIDAY. 21, 1992 university students in opposing our in- able, SO if Bill Clinton's intention really that era, I have asked myself whether I volvement in the Vietnam War? was to evade the draft, the right move regret anything. I regret this: that my (2) Do you believe that we would be would have been to wait until after the colleagues and I who worked against the better off today had the majority of war were not persuasive enough, not lottery before withdrawing the Americans then supported the position resourceful enough, not dedicated agreement. taken by Gov. Clinton on Vietnam? enough-we lacked something-to per- The results of the poll should help Gov. Clinton almost certainly was not suade those in power to end the war settle the question of whether Gov. motivated, as some have suggested, by before SO many thousands more died. Clinton is an electable candidate for then-secretary of defense Melvin Laird's The test we should apply to candidates announcement of reduced draft calls in who came of age in that era is of whether president of the United States. JOSEPH NEWMAN the two months preceding the lottery. their personal choices with regard to the war and military service can be traced to Washington At the time, Secretary Laird had little credibility among young people. We in- some sense of responsibility and regard for the many others whose lives were in I was in the Army ROTC in 1969. I terpreted this announcement as an at- knew several cadets who played games tempt to dodge criticism of the draft jeopardy. We could then be certain that with their ROTC commitments after until after the lottery had been held. We those decisions, whatever they were, rested on compassion and integrity. they pulled high numbers in the draft fully expected the draft to return in That is a good starting point for evalu- lottery. I felt then, and still believe, this strength after the lottery. ating candidates. We also would all bene- was wrong. MICHAEL J. HIRREL fit from having found common ground in What Bill Clinton did was very dif- Arlington respect and regret for the sacrifice of the ferent, and, to my knowledge, quite dead. unusual. He withdrew his agreement to I'd like to thank Andrew Ward for his LARRY RIEDMAN enroll in ROTC and got himself reclassi- Feb. 11 op-ed article, "No Heart for the Gaithersburg fied 1A before the lottery. If he had Draft." This is the best and most moving overview yet written concerning the Clinton draft controversy. Jack Kemp's Honesty I too was subject to the same sort of circumstances and forced to make the Jack Kemp. in calling George Bush's checked. Stalin was still dead, free same life-and-death choices as all the tax credit proposal the gimmick that it speech was still a constitutional right. young men of my generation. I took a is, has dared to reveal that the emperor and the American democratic system route used by many others and served wears no clothes. This was viewed by not only allowed but required individuals four years of active duty in the U.S. President Bush's advisers as an act of to speak out against tyranny. Navy, knowing full well that as a mem- "political treachery" for which Mr. If anyone should be fired, it is the ber of the Atlantic fleet, the chances of Kemp should have been fired [news sycophants who have blindly shored up story, Feb. 6]. No other recent example being sent to fight in a worthless war of narrow-minded. self-interested politi- the president's vapid policies, who have were virtually nil. tried to make us believe that a tattered cal toadyism has incensed me more. I managed somehow to maintain my blanket is an ermine cape. Is the Republican Party honestly say- sanity, and though I'm not proud of ing that no dissenting opinions may be VICTORIA McKERNAN having been a part of that immense presented to the public? Last time I Washington death machine, I am nevertheless still alive and intact. I also received an hon- For the Democrats, Dueling Dispatches orable discharge. which, I must admit, itself as the de facto official GOP and offered me good cover during subse- S if the Democrats didn't have Democratic convention chronicler since quent antiwar activities. A enough to handle with their '84. "Advertisers have said, 'Gee, we've I will not vote for Bill Clinton for campaign warfare, now they're been told CQ has exclusive rights at president. but not for any reasons hav- mediating tiffs between news hotels'-and it's not true." ing to do with his avoiding the draft. And organizations. In a letter to the publishing CQ Editor Robert Merry assures all as much as I detest Dan Quayle's firm hired by Congressional Quarterly to interested parties that there will be breathtaking hypocrisy about Vietnam! I produce its first-ever convention can fully appreciate his using whatever problems no longer. The publishing firm, newsletter this summer in New York, the influence he had to avoid being sent International Media Partners Inc., has Democratic National Committee warned there. Bill Clinton, Dan Quayle, Andrew given CQ "very strong assurances," says the company to stop suggesting that it will Ward, myself and tens of thousands of Merry, that it will neither present CQ as be the 'official' convention publication." others were all doing what we had to do the exclusive mouthpiece of convention "They have been going to advertisers news nor ask hotels for exclusive to survive a stupid, insane war. I only claiming to have exclusive rights to wish that those who died in Vietnam or distribution commitments. Says Merry: distribute through hotels," says John Fox came home broken had done the same. "Congressional Quarterly has no intention Sullivan, president and publisher of the of being a party to any enterprise that RODGER FRENCH National Journal, which has thought of suggests it has an official or an exclusive Alexandria relationship of any kind with any political party." Lourie. one.) already.' translated from the Russian by Richard announced yesterday. The columns will be next two years, the New York Times Co. to 15 syndicated newspaper columns over the Mikhail Gorbachev has agreed to write 10 It's not the Kremlin, but at least it's a job. Airmen"-into battle during World War II. American pilots-the "Tuskegee Davis led the first squadrons of African Institution's prestigious Langley Medal. 21st recipient of the Smithsonian surprised last night when he became the Lt. Gen. Benjamin O. Davis Jr. was quite leave as its chairwoman. Fund, at which time she went on temporary board meeting of the Children's Defense Hillary stopped by Washington to attend a campaign down South this week, wife While Bill Clinton was taking his Washington bureau chief Howell Raines. linked of late to New York Times His ex-wife, Marianne Wiggins, has been only one who's found solace with another. Apparently Salman Rushdie isn't the to shell out $500 now. sluggishly. Not surprisingly, everyone wants fund-raiser were selling, shall we say, lawyer Kip O'Neill's upcoming Tuesday victory this week, tickets to Washington Before Paul Tsongas's New Hampshire the House majority leader. (Well, almost no Unlike Jackson, however, no one recognized special attention for his own security. Jackson a week earlier, Gephardt needed Future ride. One usher explained that, like front of a 55-minute line at the Back to the Orlando when ushers stepped him to the treatment Saturday at Universal Studios in Dick Gephardt got the Michael Jackson House chief of staff responded, "I feel slimy our trade!" recently, the former White with a seemingly innocuous "Welcome to Sununu, CNN's new "Crossfire" co-host, When a journalist greeted John WE'VE HEARD THAT. Why Things Are Dirty Politics By Joel Achenbach Is it possible that the powerful are FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Washington Post Staff Writer abnormally horny? (Oh, excuse us, we meant to say sexually addicted.) Or are Why are politicians always they, historically, men of average sexu- getting into sex scandals? al drives who merely exploited their power? To what extent is sex drive Male politicians are often sexually associated with political ambition? And greedy. You might call it the JFK should we care if a guy who asks us to Syndrome-an extreme form of rak- vote for him is unusually randy? ishness in which women are treated as This is where it gets tricky: No one perquisites of power, just like access wants to elect a leader who is merely to the better golf courses or free rides out for personal gain, financial, sexual on military planes. One of these days, or otherwise. Sexual behavior isn't ir- an American politician will simply be- relevant to the character of a leader; gin his presidential inauguration despots, historically, have been sexually speech with seven words: "My fellow promiscuous. Americans: Bring on the babes." "It seems bizarre to me to hold We know that, historically, sex and politicians to a higher standard of sexu- power have been natural partners. In al propriety than everybody else. On pre-Columbian South America, the In- the other hand, extreme abuse of sexu- ca emperor had houses of virgins al privilege correlates with abuse of all TESTOSTERONE CAL spread throughout the empire, 700 sorts of other privileges," Betzig says. virgins per site. He alone was permit- sion. So you might conclude that the It's likely that powerful men have a ted access. In ancient Rome, concu- stronger sex drive than the average higher sex drive is a preexisting condi- bines were legally sanctioned, and the Joe, says anthropologist Helen Fisher tion for politicos. But it also may be an Emperor Commodus had 300. In the of the American Museum of Natural aftereffect of leadership-a symptom present-day Ache culture of Paraguay, History. "There have been quite a few of the intoxicating nature of power. the more skilled a man is at hunting studies that show that in monkeys, Men gain power, and suddenly are fresh meat, the more women he is and in people, levels of testosterone surrounded by women. Sex doesn't allowed to claim as mates. go up when one rises in rank," result in satiation, it results in still "Across cultures, across space and Fisher told us. "Testosterone is clear- greater desire. Says Betzig, "Once time, power has correlated with sex- ly associated in both men and women you've tasted the perquisites, I think ual access," says Laura Betzig, an with sex drive. So there's every rea- it's going to be difficult for a lot of anthropologist at the University of son to believe that these leaders men to resist." Michigan who has studied the sex should have a high sex drive." There is something called the Coo- lives of leaders in pre-modern cul- Testosterone also is associated lidge Effect, the gist of which is that tures. "It's one of the reasons people with aggressiveness, and the quest for sex drive increases in response to an want power." power is certainly a kind of aggres- increase in the number of sexual part- By G.B. Trudeau DOONESBURY GENTLEMEN, WHAT WELL, I THINK THE PEOPLE WERE SAYING THANK SORT OFMESSAGE THAT THEY LIKE MY WHY DO THEY VOTERS WERE TELLING YOU,SIR. DO YOU THINK THE US THAT THEY LIKE A "800" NUMBER, EVEN CALL 1-800- SENATOR VOTERS SENT ALLOF IF MY OPPONENTS 426-1112? CANDIDACY THAT BELONGS KERREY, DO... YOU LAST TUESDAY? BECAUSE TO THE PEOPLE, AND NOT DO NOT, AND THAT GOVERNOR BROWN? THE ENTRENCHED ELITE... THEY LIKE BEING THEY CARE! ABLE TO CALL 1-800-426-1112 TO MAKE A PLEDGE! 2-21 6B Trudean ture into a responsible adult." presented cretion. that role is effectively denied the opportunity to ma- the opportunity to exercise responsibilities rights for them, but because a child denied are reliant on adults to exercise their found significance not just because children presumption of incompetency has pro- tive of children's rights: "This [regnant] responsibilities as the inescapable correla- She also lays new stress on children's proven otherwise." sume all individuals are competent until sumption of incompetency and instead as- first thing to be done is to reverse the pre- a presumption of children's competence is article on the as an urgent priority: "The subject the argument for In "Children's Rights,' her second major of what is the parent's sphere of sole dis- which tells the state, in effect, to "butt out" right-wing defense of "family values," gans and sentiment blunt response to the ture of reform efforts in a field where slo- from Yale, and she deplored the ad hoc na- dren's Defense Fund after her graduation She had become involved with the Chil- gird practical activity with legal theory. bling lawyers was her attempt to under- her apart from other successful and scram- the University of Arkansas). But what set Committee, professor of criminal law at peachment staff of the House Judiciary Journal, legal counsel on the Nixon im- mencement, an editor of the Yale Law student to speak at a Wellesley com- (president of her class at Wellesley, first Her academic record has been stellar people to continue thinking of her only in on "60 Minutes." It would be a shame for loyally by her husband, Gov. Bill Clinton, posed to Hillary Rodham Clinton as she sat Millions of Americans were first ex- New York Review of Books, March 5: From an article by Garry Wills in The For the Record town in which manners and class have mind, but he's not a wacko liberal," Koch and LeBlond been in the decline." says another Coelho alumnus, Tom In the late 1970s, in fact, Koch's fa- Nides, who now works on Speaker ther became a virtual pariah in the Thomas S. Foley's staff. KOCH, From C1 for him to jump on a plane to go to a prestigious Congressional Country Coelho, managing director of a major bout. Club, to which he belonged, when he New York banking investment firm majority whip Tony Coelho of Califor- On the political front, Koch has al- led a seven-year battle against it be- who is a member of the National Re- nia from 1986 to 1989, says the com- ready been ranked by Roll Call, the cause, he claimed, the club had been habilitation Hospital's board, recalls mon ground in the Koch-LeBlond insider journal of Capitol Hill, as one skimming wages from some of its that the roots of the LeBlond-Koch Doro' Left-Hand Man The First Daughter's Democratic Intended public relations consultant Mark Johnson, says: "There's room for more than one bumper sticker on No date has yet been announced for the wedding of Doro Bush. 32. divorced mother of two small chil- dren. and Bobby Koch, 31. But the White House says the ultra-private VOWS will be exchanged at Camp Da- vid, the presidential retreat in Mary- land's Catoctin Mountains. Koch gave LeBlond her ring Saturday courtship, which began just about a night over dinner while Sam Le- of the Hill's "Most Powerful Staffers." predominantly minority service staff. courtship go back to one of the hospi- year ago, was never politics. Blond, 7, and Ellie, 5, looked on. Koch (pronounced Cook) is by all reports a Democrat just as LeBlond by all indications is a Republican. But Fred Hatfield, who was Koch's boss when they worked for former House Coelho, who resigned his California The club, whose membership in- tal's functions. LeBlond had moved to "What they share are very similar congressional seat in June 1989 amid cludes members of Congress, was Washington after her April 1990 di- See KOCH, C3, Col. backgrounds. They're both tremen- scrutiny over a loan from a California never prosecuted because the statute vorce from William H. LeBlond, a dously family-oriented. They both savings and loan executive, credits of limitations had expired, although Maine contractor, and had gone to the Koch family car.' have great senses of humor. They're Koch with running his successful cam- the Maryland attorney general's of- work in the hospital's fund-raising and both very athletic. They play ten- paign to become majority whip in fice found that there had been irregu- special events office. nis-Doro plays well, and sometimes 1986. lar payroll practices. "Doro expressed an interest in she wins." Koch's relationship with Coelho be- After Coelho left Congress, Bobby meeting Bobby," Coelho remembers. Koch's performance on the courts gan in 1983, shortly after he graduat- Koch went to work for Gephardt. As "I counseled her that if someone almost certainly has been ranked al- ed from the University of Maryland administrative assistant in the majori- comes across aggressively, Bobby ready by the mythical Bush family with a bachelor of arts degree in polit- ty leader's office he is involved in ev- moves the other way. So I told her "Ranking Committee," believed to be composed of LeBlond's four older ical science. He was 23 when he went erything from overseeing all adminis- we've got to go about this carefully. It to work for the Democratic Congres- trative functions to working out the took several months to get the first brothers. The Bushes, remember, sional Campaign Committee (DCCC), legislative floor schedules and deter- date going." don't like to lose. They say marriages are made in othy Bush LeBlond and Robert Petri which Coelho chaired. A Washington mining Gephardt's political activities. Then one day another Coelho alum, By Donnie Radcliffe Washington Post Staff Writer heaven, but it's hard to imagine Dor- Koch coming together anyplace but Where else but in this citadel of Washington. bipartisanship could the daughter of the Republican president of the United States hope to find wedded bliss as the wife of a top aide to one of her father's most persistent crit- ics, the Democratic majority leader of the House? The very same Demo- crat-Richard A. Gephardt of Mis- souri-some people think could end up challenging George Bush in No- But as one friend of the couple's. On the golf course, Koch has his good and his bad days. Last summer native, Koch is one of six children of "He's as smart as they come on the Heidi Hicks, invited Nides and Koch it was one of the latter, when he Helen and George W. Koch. His fa- Hill, with very much of a political over to the hospital. "Let's put it this rounded out a presidential foursome ther was president of the Grocery with actor Kevin Costner and tennis Manufacturers of America until he re- way," says Nides. "With Bobby, I Bushes vacationed last August and champ Andre Agassi. President Bush tired in 1990 and is legendary as a found myself at the Rehabilitation LeBlond took her regular morning drove straight if not long, Costner and lobbyist. Hospital in the middle of an after- runs, Koch was identified to reporters Agassi were steady if unremarkable, Martin Franks, vice president, noon. They hit it off." merely as an unnamed Secret Service while Koch sliced his first drive, hit- Washington, of CBS but executive di- Coelho says Koch called him some agent. And now that the two are en- vember. ting a mulligan almost straight up. rector of Coelho's DCCC staff at the time later to say that LeBlond had in- gaged, the White House is handling "I hope," a disdainful president not- time, remembers Koch as "the hour- vited him to a state dinner. "I said, 'Re- all media inquiries. ed later, "the summit with Gorbachev to-hour manager who kept track of member, your name will be in The As the president's son-in-law, Koch goes better than golf with these the commitments and promises" in Washington Post the next day. You could be privy to information Bush's guys." Coelho's whip campaign. "He was better go in and tell Dick [Gephardt].' political opponents would relish. One enthusiasm of Koch's presum- very well organized, had marvelous Dick didn't have any problems with it, Friends like Tom Nides say that "ob- ably not shared by Doro's dad is pro- people skills and came from a family but way back then we knew, the Bush- viously your first loyalty is to your fessional wrestling. It's not unusual which maintained high standards in a es too, it could cause some difficulties." wife. But I have all the confidence in The Bushes were reportedly all for the world that Bobby will be able to Koch, doing what they could to help handle a situation like that." the couple carry on a normal court- As for Gephardt, his reaction is be- ship. Barbara Bush reportedly kept ing funneled through his spokeswom- FRIDAY. FEBRI 21, 1992 Koch's name off that first guest list, an, Deborah Johns. though it showed up on subsequent "He's very happy about Bobby and TheWashington Post ones. In Kennebunkport, where the Doro," she said yesterday. "That's it." FAI./SAT./SUN., FEB 1992 247.6 million losers CAPITAL LINE in New Hampshire USA TODAY'S BRIEFING ON WASHINGTON Four years ago, I asked then-governor John Sununu of Texas recession hits New Hampshire if it's fair that his little state has so much power in picking presidents. He quipped: the always thought that's the way God intended it" Bush close to home with or without divine blessing the Granite State again has played a grossly disproportionate role in the making - The recession has finally hit home for President Bush. or unmsking of presidents. The company that owns the land and buildings of President Bush and Tsongas won by the numbers, but narrowly. Bu- Bush's Houston residence, burdened with $28 million in chanan and Clinton claim moral victories. Kerrey, Harkin debts, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this week. and Brown survived. The other The holding company, Houstonian Properties Ltd. leases 56 candidates on the New the site to the Houstonian Hotel and Conference Center. A Hampshire ballot lost. suite in the hotel Is Bush's official residence for tax and vot- But the big losers are you Ing purposes. Hotel operations "have nothing to do" with the and - 247.6 million of us who bankruptcy filing, said Houstonian Properties lawyer Dan- don't live in New Hampshire. lel Johnston and Bush Isn't likely to lose use of the sulte. For 40 years, this tiny state Texas Democratic Party leaders didn't miss a beat, saying - population 1.1 million - has the bankruptcy filing may help Bush finally understand the been in the catbird seat. No economic troubles affecting millions of other Americans. one has won the White House without first winning this over- NIXON ON SPORTS: Former publicized first-in-the-nation president Richard Nixon says that primary. being a sports announcer "would That might DOC be all bad if be the greatest job in the world.' In New Hampshire were a micro- the first of a two-part Interview on AL cosm of the USA. But it is one C-SPAN, the cable TV network, NEUHARTH of our least representative Nixon says he'd be good at It "be- states. cause like to watch how they play USA TODAY FOUNDER New Harripshirites are near- how they meet the test. Poll- ly all white. Mostly pretty well- tics Is the greatest sport there Is to-do, despite current cries of hard times. The USA is much, It's competitive. People win, peo- much more diverse in race and income and by most other AP pie lose, people come back." Dis- measures. Examples: NIXON: 'Politics is cussing his new book, Seize the Population - New Hampshire, 98.9% white. The USA, greatest sport' Moment: America's Challenge in a One Superpower World. Nixon 80% white. Per person annual Income - New Hampshire, says that Russian leader Borts Yeltsin isn't "In Gorbachev's $20,827, the seventh highest in the nation. US. average, league as far as style. Yeltsin may not know what fork to use at a state dinner, but he has 8 very sharp mind." The $18,691. I have nothing against white, well-to-do people. I'm one of hour-long Interview airs Sunday at 8 p.m. EST. them. I just don't think they/we should dictate who shall be HEALTH CARE: Senate Democrats and Republicans are president. The solution to this silly situation? A single national pri- In agreement on one plece of health care reform legislation mary, preferably some late-summer day in September. that could make it easler for small businesses to buy health That would come after would-be presidents of both major Insurance policies and the uninsured to get coverage. Sen. parties have subjected themselves to scrutiny by people of Lloyd Bentsen, D-Texas, sponsor of a bill to reform the in- all races and incomes and philosophies all across the USA. surance marketplace for small firms, sald Thursday he Both parties would field stronger candidates in the No- hoped to get the measure through Congress swiftly. Presi- vember general election under such a system. The general dent Bush also is supporting a similar measure. Bentsen's public would win. although New Hampshire would lose a bill would prohibit insurance companies from denying in- little. surance to people with existing medical conditions - a Sununu aside. 1 think God might applaud. problem that has caused "fob lock" for many people who risk losing medical Insurance If they change jobs. FEEDBACK HAITIAN REFUGEES: Congress for the first time got Other views on the New Hampshire primary directly involved in the growing controversy triggered by the forced return of Haltian refugees to their troubled Ca- "Some other states may pick corn; New Hampshire ribbean homeland. The House Judiciary Committee voted picks presidents. New Hampshire primary voters do the 21-12 along party lines to Impose a six-month moratorium job well and that is why the country is well served by the on returning the refugees. The Supreme Court was expect- first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary." ed to rule today on whether or not to block the continued - John H. Sununu, counselor to the president repatriation of some 10,000 Haitian refugees detained at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. "No state is representative of the country. In New Hampshire, they have a good track record of picking can- CAMPAIGN FUNDS: President Bush remains the didates who go on to win the presidency." front-runner in attracting money for the presidential race, - Stephen Hess. senior fellow, Brookings Institution according to the latest Federal Election Commission report filed Thursday. Bush ralsed $1.6 million in January and has $8.8 million on band. Among Democrats, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton reported $1.6 million in contributions with $1.4 mil- lion on hand. Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey received $550,000 in contributions and has $115,000 cash on hand and former California governor Jerry Brown raised $190,000 and has $67,000 on hand. Reports not yet available: Republican Pat Buchanan and Democrats Paul Tsongas and Tom Harkin. BIPARTISAN MATCH: Presi- dent Bush's daughter, Dorothy Bush LeBlond. is marrying a top aide to one her father's most vocal Democratic critics, Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo. Barbara Bush's spokeswoman Anna Perez said LeBlond, 32, and Robert Koch, 31, will tie the knot at the Camp David, Md., presidential retreat. and the bride-to-be's parents are "thrilled." No date has been announced. LeBLOND: To wed INTERIM NASA HEAD: Aar- at Camp David on Cohen, director of Johnson Space Center in Houston, was named acting head of NASA, replacing Richard Truly, who resigned last week under pressure. Cohen, who has been with the agency since 1962, will be acting deputy administrator. FRI./SAT./SUN., FEB 21-23. 1992 Poll indicates Bush tentatively in front Less than half of the electorate is satisfied with President USA voters unhappy Bush's leadership, but most TODAY CNN say he'll be re-elected in November. Nearly half of the GALLUP Democrats want other with Bush, Dems candidates to enter the race. Latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll national results: President Bush's approval rating: By Richard Benedetto USA TODAY Jan. 3 46% Voters are dissatisfied with President Bush's leadership, Feb. 2 47% but are uneasy with the Democratic alternatives. Now 39% A USA TODAY/CNN/Gattup Poll finds that nearly half of Democratic voters want to see other candidates enter the Does Bush deserve to be re-elected? race, while nearly one in three Republicans say they too Feb. 2 Now would prefer some new entrants. New York Gov. Mario Cuomo is mentioned most often by 51% Yes Democrats; Housing Secretary Jack Kemp by Republicans 42% "I'd like to see stronger Democrats," says Luther Jones, 66, of Hampton, Va. "Our strongest people got scared off by 45% Bush's success in the war, but now he looks vulnerable." No 47% Bush - dogged by an ailing economy, and battered in New Hampshire by conservative commentator Pat Bu- Who voters think will be elected chanan - gets record-low approval ratings for his steward- In November: ship. Less than half say he deserves re-election. But Buchanan's candidacy appears to be going nowhere among GOP voters. Nearly eight of 10 favor Bush for the Bush 58% nomination; nine of 10 think he'll get IL Yet. two of three still want Buchanan to continue his challenge. "There are things I'd like to see changed. This would Don't The keep Bush on his toes," says Peggy Smith, 32, Roopville. Ga. know Democrat The poll also shows that Bush would beat the two Demo- 15% 27% cratic front-runners, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton and ex-Mas- sachusetts senator Paul Tsongas, If the election were held Preference of Republican voters for now. Buchanan, If nominated, loses In a matchup with Clin- their party's presidential nomination: ton. but runs virtually tied with Tsongas. Roman Storch, 56, of Tempe, Ariz. is behind the presi- President Bush 78% dent: think Desert Storm was one of our greatest moves." Pat Buchanan 20% But given Bush's low overall approval rating, the Demo- crats still may be too unknown to get thorough judgment. How Republicans feel about Buchanan's "I'm not familiar with any of these people," says Ann continued candidacy against Bush: Burnett, 32, of Mount Clemens, Mich. Democratic leaders say that will change: "As they hear Should continue in race 62% our candidates' messages of economic growth and positive Should drop out 30% leadership, they'll like them more and more, says Mark Steitz of the Democratic National Committee. How Republicans feel about their choice Neal Van Noorden, 43, of Los Angeles, who is out of work, of candidates now: is listening "I'd like to see a Democrat who had specific ideas about how to get the economy healthy again. Pleased with candidates 62% While there are opportunities for the Democrats to gain Would like someone else 32% ground, the poll also shows Clinton has problems. He's had to enter the race to deny charges of womanizing and draft dodging. One In four say they're unlikely to vote for him because of IL THE DEMOCRATS -I worry about people who have problems In one area of Preference of Democratic voters for their lives because it usually means they'll have problems their party's presidential nomination: in other areas as well." Smith says. "What I know about him waves a warning dag" Bill Clinton 41% The poll also shows that Tsongas, despite a decisive win Paul Tsongas 31% in New Hampshire, still lacks stature. Only one In four Democrats want him as their nominee, and one in three say Jerry Brown 7% he's the Democrat most likely to beat Bush. Bob Kerrey 6% His bout with cancer seems to matter little. Only one In 10 Tom Harkin 5% would be unlikely to vote for him because of it Contributing: Brian O'Connell How Democrats feel about their choice of candidates now: Election '92, 1A, 4A Pleased with candidates 45% Would like someone else 45% to enter the race Source: USA TODAY/CNN Gallup telephone poR of 754 registered voters nationwide conducted Feb 19-20 by The Gallup Organization Margin of sampling a plus or minus percentage points Note: Bush approval rating was derived from a samole of mo - and must registered voters. FRL/SAT./SUN., FEB 21-23 How Bush would Poll: Bush slips, but would win fare against By Richard Benedetto Only 42% say he deserves re- Democratic field as It Is. win, down from 29% Bush 53% USA TODAY election, a drop from 51% Clinton, who has denied Clinton over Buchanan, Clinton 43% three weeks ago. charges of womanizing and 19%-40%: Tsongas over But President Bush's approval But most still prefer Bush draft dodging hasn't put the Is- chanan, 43%-41%. rating has hit a new low, but over Democrats Bill Clinton sues behind him: 24% sald But history warns against Bush 54% he'd still win If the election and Paul Tsongas. they'd be unlikely to vote for complacency. President Carter were held now, shows a USA Tsongas The finding suggests the him because of questions about 30% was beating Ronald Reagan TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll Democrats have yet to con- his character. Other results: 5896-33% at 8 similar point in Taken after the New Hamp- vince a majority they offer a 58% expect Bush to win Source: USA 1980. Reagan won a landslide. shire primary, the poll shows better alternative to Bush. national re-election, down from 63% in Bush's approval at 39%, down Nearly half of all Democrats early February. Buchanan opens fire, 4A USA TODAY from 47% early this month. say they're unsatisfied with the 27% expect a Democrat to New faces wanted, 5A Buchanan takes aim at arts fund By Judy Keen Helms proposed adding anti- and Bill Nichols obscenity restrictions to NEA USA TODAY art grants, Bush backed a ver- sion leaving obscenity ques- Republican Pat Buchanan tions to the courts. launched a new conservative Meanwhile, two days after attack on President Bush his New Hampshire victory, Thursday, while Democrat Tsongas displayed the grow. Paul Tsongas' national cam- ing pains confronting his in- paign got off to a rocky start, formal campaign. By Jun Cole. AP at least logistically. Tsongas had to be told by IN SOUTH DAKOTA: Democrat Paul Tsongas shakes the Buchanan, previewing his reporters on his plane to hand of a stockyard worker in Sioux Falls. Southern campaign, called South Dakota that he was the National Endowment for speaking at the Sloux Falls land's March 3 primary, but Brown seeks a breakthrough. the Arts an "uphoistered play- Stockyards, rather than the expects "a lot of people there Two days before the pen of the arts and crafts aux- state Legislature as had been would agree" more with South Dakota primary, the illary of the Eastern liberal scheduled for several days. Tsongas "because they're five major Democrats and establishment" subsidizing Aldes hadn't told him of more upper middle class Larry Agran, former Irvine, "filthy and blasphernous art." the change. "Where am I go- than regular middle class." Calif. mayor, meet Sunday In The Bush administration, Ing tomorrow?" Tsongas Tsongas is expected to a statewide TV debate. C- Buchanan said, has increased joked with reporters. Also: win Sunday's Democratic SPAN will It at 7 p.m. EST. NEA's budget each year. Bill Clinton said he'll run caucus In Maine, but Clinton Last year when Sen. Jesse a full campaign in Mary- is well organized and Jerry Poll results, 1A, 5A Exit polls an 'evolving art,' says L.A. pollster By Leslle Phillips balloting, released on Wednesday, unusual number of GOP write-in voters. USA TODAY showed Bush won 53% to 37%. VRS director Warren Mitofsky attri- The error "happened SO early in the butes his problems to polling methods as New Hampshire voters pulled a fast season, it's bound to make network peo- well as a reluctance of Bush voters and one on the national media. ple a little more cautious," says Richard eagerness of Buchanan voters to answer Tuesday, more Republicans than ex- Harwood, who has studied the interac- questions after they voted. pected, 7.5% compared with 1.5% in tion between voters and the media. At any rate, network officials say, the 1988, voted for none of the above. The problem began when Voter Re- updated numbers wouldn't have Restive Republicans wrote in their search & Surveys set up as a cost-cut- changed the thrust of their stories. own choice, including 2% who voted for ting measure by the four TV networks to "The interpretation wasn't totally Democrat Paul Tsongas. share exit polling failed to account for wrong" says Kathleen Frankovic, direc- The result: New Hampshire GOP pri- the Republican write-ins. tor of surveys for CBS. "This is not good mary numbers reported on TV and front It was compounded when election of. for Bush either way." pages were off the mark. Not dramati- ficials waited, as usual. until Wednesday Others question the media's tendency cally off the mark, but off by enough to to count the actual write-ins of New to predict results based on exit polling. overplay the support of President Bush Hampshire's unpredictable voters. Los Angeles Times pollster John Bren- and Pat Buchanan. So Tuesday night. when VRS pollsters nan calls it an "evolving art." Early exit polls of voters showed Bush checked their numbers with the actual Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist leading Buchanan 51% to 46% Late TV vote count, they saw no discrepancy. College Institute for Public Opinion, news and many Wednesday newspapers Two other polls, conducted for the Los adds: "The best use of exit polls is to look reported Bush leading 57% to 41%. Angeles Times and the Boston Herald back when the dust settles and analyze based on actual vote counts. and WCVB-TV, also overstated Bush and the strength and weaknesses of candi- But the official result of the primary Buchanan support. But both detected the dates in terms of who supported them." Dems' tax plan makes rich pay for cuts from the House bill a 1% cut in get a compromise to Bush this George Mitchell, D-Maine, and By Richard Wolf The Senate is expected to go Finance Committee Chairman the corporate tax rate that USA TODAY after even wealthler taxpayers spring, it faces alikely veto. "It's the first act in a play Lloyd Bentsen. D-Texas, isked liberals. As a result, the than the House: those with in- comes above $150,000, rather that may have no ending said agreed to use unspecified tax bill will raise more than it Democrats in Congress set B House Budget Chairman Leon increases to pay for any cuts. spends on tax cuts, leaving $14 collision course with President than $85,000. But the Senate Bentsen had pushed a $72.5 bil- billion over five years to help change could make it easier to Panetta, D-Calif. The deal sets the stage for lion package financed by the trim the $400 billion deficit. Bush over tax cuts Thursday by come up with one version to Pentagon's "peace dividend." Some liberals complained agreeing to pay for them by tax hikes on the rich. pass both bodies. the House to consider Wednes- Bentsen refused to be specif- about capital gains cuts; mod- The Democrats face uphill day the Democrats' five-year, Senate Democrats aban- ic, but a 10% surtax on million- erates expressed doubts about doned their effort to use mili- battles. Minority Republicans $90.9 billion plan keyed to mid- will unite against the plans and die-income tax cuts and Bush's aires similar to that sought by the two-year $200-$400 cut for tary cuts to pay for middle- smaller package of business House Democrats is expected. middle-income taxpayers. class tax breaks, agreeing liberal and conservative Dem- House Speaker Thomas Still, Foley predicted the bill ocrats oppose parts of each. and investment tax breaks: Foley, D-Wash., agreed to drop would pass the House. instead to follow House Demo- crats' soak-the-rich approach. If Democratic leaders can Senate Majority Leader The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Where's the Rest of Him? Patrick Buchanan calls his showing in New But on other issues, Patrick Buchanan, the arch Hampshire the beginning of a "middle-class revolu- conservative, seems to have sat out the campaign. tion" with himself starring in the role once played He who not long ago went out of his way to offend by Ronald Reagan. He thus grandiosely miscon- Jews when talking about the Middle East now strues voter anger over tough times as a mandate discusses the subject decently, calmly. The Patrick for his eccentric brand of conservatism. That's Buchanan who said that black lives are more ex- fanciful thinking, made possible because Mr. Bu- pendable than white was nowhere seen on the chanan put only some of himself on display. campaign trail. "Where's the Rest of Me?" is how his paragon, His record suggests someone intent on bringing Ronald Reagan, titled his autobiography, quoting out the worst in people, preying on fear of foreigners some famous movie dialogue. It's a question Pat and minorities. For instance, he crossed the line Buchanan now needs to answer about himself. recently in The London Sunday Telegraph when he argued that America should be sympathetic to independence in the Baltic states because they are Mr. Buchanan came within 16 points of Presi- populated by white people: dent Bush in New Hampshire, not as close as first "Why are we more shocked when a dozen appeared, but impressive nevertheless considering people are killed in Vilnius than a massacre in that he's a newspaper columnist who has never run Burundi?" he asked, "Because they are white peo- for anything. The question is, what does his 37 ple. That's who we are. That's where America percent mean? comes from." Millions of Americans who are not Half of those who voted for him told exit poll Anglo-Saxon are right to be alarmed by a candidate interviewers that they did so to send the President a for President who thinks their lives less valuable message, presumably about how hard the recession than his own. has hit them. And half the Buchanan voters said Mr. Buchanan expressed himself with similar, they were unsatisfied with both Republicans. perhaps even anti-Semitic fervor, in his opposition With attitudes like that apparent, any idea of a to the guil war. All the fighting would be done by Buchanan "revolution" is mainly a fiction in the "kids with names like McAllister, Murphy, Gon- candidate's mind. The nagging questions after New zales and Leroy Brown," he said, while those who Hampshire are these: Was the reasonable Patrick were "beating the drums" for war in the Middle Buchanan who campaigned there also a fiction? East were "the Israeli Defense Ministry and its Where was the rest of him - the angry chauvinist amen corner in the United States," as though the who says "America First" without embarrassment war had only Jewish supporters. at the slogan's Nazi connotations? Where was the Mr. Buchanan surely realized that his candida- polemicist so quick to deride "Zulus" and support- cy would burn up If he continued such inflammatory ers of the Persian Gulf war? pronouncements. But It defeats logic for him, hav. The Patrick Buchanan who shook hands across ing suppressed his extreme views during the cam- New Hampshire did not hide his foreign-policy paign, now to claim that New Hampshire voters views. He touted retrenchment and argued for endorsed them. The real Patrick Buchanan has yet supplanting Mr. Bush's "globalism" with a "new to reconcile the sober candidate of the last 60 days nationalism." with the intolerant sloganeer of the last 20 years. A Dubious Battle in Lebanon Smashing through United Nations barricades, emptively, their ostensible mission to eliminate an Israeli armored force has mounted a search- "Katyusha launchers and terrorist nests." and-destroy operation against Shilte guerrilla bases A major objective of Arab-Israeli negotiations in southern Lebanon. The Israeli Government in- that resume in Washington next week is to pacify sists this is a limited operation for a limited time. Israel's frontiers with Lebanon. The Israeli incur- But the timing is deplorable, the circumstances sion guarantees fresh polemics in which Lebanon murky and the serious wounding of two U.N. peace- and its Syrian patrons can claim the moral high keepers indefensible. ground. Worse yet, by storming through U.N. barri- The provocations were real, but this overreac- cades and wounding two U.N. peacekeepers, Israel tion blurs the difference between Israel and Shiite has Invited the censure of Secretary General extremists in Lebanon. Yesterday's incursion fol- Boutros Ghali and called into question its good faith lowed weeks of random shelling of Israeli settle- in observing peace efforts. ments by Shilte militias from the 10-mile "security Israel bitterly and often justly complains of zone" instituted by Israel. being judged by a double standard when it takes In escalating violence, sleeping Israeli soldiers what it regards as defensive measures to protect were killed in their camp; an Israeli helicopter took Israeli lives and security. But in this latest dubious the lives of Sheik Abbas Musawi, a Shiite leader, his battle, which has sent thousands of villagers fleeing wife and child; Arab guerrillas called for mobiliza- their homes, Israel has lost more than it can tion, and Israeli tanks and artillery struck pre- possibly gain. The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 December Trade Gap. Widened Foreign Affairs LESLIE H. GELB But 1991 Deficit Is Smallest in 8 Years Trade Gap Wider in Month What 'It is very hard to understand why military outlays cannot be reduced by at least one-third over the next five But Much Smaller for Year years. Until now, well over half of the By KEITH BRADSHER Peace defense budget has been devoted to countering Soviet threats. That coun- Specialio The New York Times try is now a fractured bunch of basket WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 - Dwin- The trade deficit with China ex- Continued From First Business Page cases, begging to be allied with Wash- dling exports resulted in a sharp wid- panded to $12.7 billion last year from Dividend? ington. ening of the nation's merchandise $10.4 billion. After nearly a year of trade deficit in December, but for oration in its trade balance this year, political maneuvering, the Senate is Meanwhile, the Pentagon is thrash- 1991 as a whole, the deficit narrowed Mr. Bergsten said, only if the econom- expected to vote within the next week trig around trying to justify a force to $66 billion, the smallest shortfall ic recovery is exceptionally weak. and finally send President Bush a bill As campaign '92 heads south, Re- That will be about 1.6 million strong, in eight years. Exports Down In December imposing conditions on the June re- publicans and Democrats will no down from the present 2.1 million, by The Bush Administration hailed Exports, which accounted for most newal of China's trade access to the longer be able to ignore perhaps their 1997. The Times published on Monday the full-year results as a sign of re- of the nation's economic growth in American market. The President has most telling point of conflict: Demo- the results of that thrashing, a set of newed American competitiveness, 1990 and 1991 and which the Adminis- promised to veto the bill. cratic Presidential hopefuls propose seven illustrative scenarios where and members of Congress from both tration sees as powering the nation's Today's report contributed little to cuts in U.S. military spending roughly the U.S. might be called upon to use parties said that the improvement economic recovery, dropped 2.2 per- resolving the fundamental trade-defi- three times greater than now project- military power. last year would be more important in cent in December. And the Com- cit question that has divided Interna- ed by President Bush. It would be easy to make fun of the national debate over protection- merce Department also revised to- ism than December's poor showing. tional trade experts and economists: Mr. Bush's peace dividend - or these scenarios, but that would be day its November export figure to In December, the deficit grew by 42 whether the improvement of the last savings on previously planned de- unfair. The U.S. needs an effective percent, to $5.94 billion, as exports fell show a drop instead of a record high. four years represents a structural Japan and China, two of the na- and lasting change in America's role fense outlays would total about $66 and strong military, and the military and imports climbed, the Commerce in world markets or simply the steep billion by 1997. has to think about situations where tion's three least politically popular Department said. trade partners, showed bigger trade slide since 1985 in the dollar's value, His Democratic opponents are call- force may be likely. Exports Up in '91 surpluses with the United States in which has made imports more expen- ing for savings of between $180 billion But the striking thing about the But for the full year, exports rose 1991 The third trading partner, Mexi- sive and American exports more and $200 billion by that date. Pentagon list is how far its planners 7.2 percent, led by a 9.3 percent gain CO, with which the Administration is competitive abroad. Almost as startling as this gap is trad to stretch to come up with any for manufactured goods, the main negotiating a free-trade agreement, the fact that even the Democratic plausible threats. A resurgent Iraq or casualties from foreign competition last year posted its first deficit with Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr., the presi- dent of the Economic Strategy Insti- candidates are talking about limited an attack by North Korea on South during the 1980's. And imports fell for the United States in a decade. Kofea are practically off imaginable the first time since 1982. Exports to Japan dropped sharply tute, a Washington public policy reductions. Their Pentagon budget "Those figures would tend to in December and slightly for all of group, said the rising deficit with five years from now would still be charts. And the U.S. along with its dampen down the enthusiasm for last year, so that the annual trade Japan shows that foreign trade barri- over $200 billion in today's dollars allies could deal with them crushing- deficit between the nations widened ers persist while America's domestic trade law changes," said Representa- or about one-third the present budget. ly with only a fraction of current tive Don J. Pease, an Ohio Democral to $43.44 billion from $41.10 billion, the weaknesses, such as high health-care in other words, the much-touted military power, as happened in the first such deterioration since 1987. costs, continue to hobble American peace dividend to produce extra dol- Persian Gulf war. As for protecting who supports more trade restrictions. "If I were President Bush and could The persistent deficit with Japan exporters. "Devaluation of the dollar lars for domestic priorities and defi- "Artierican citizens in places like the has grown to two-thirds of the overall devalues U.S. assets and makes us all say that I'd reduced the trade deficit from over $100 billion to $66 billion, poorer,' he said. CH. reduction is turning out to be far Philippines or Panama, a few battal- deficit from a third in the last four smaller than anticipated. ions and a few air squadrons could do I'd be pretty pleased." years, and Congressional Democrats A study released today by Kenneth And the peace dividend will be the job easily. And as for worrying Economists, however, attribute have made it a centerpiece of their Leventhal & Company, a large ac- recent criticisms of Administration smaller still if Democratic leaders in. about some new world military pow- much of the improvement from the counting firm, said that Japanese in- $101.7 billion deficit in 1990 and the trade policy. Congress have their way. Their sug- er, none is near any horizon. vestors had used the strong yen to peak $152.1 billion deficit in 1987 to "I think it's frustrating to see us buy $76 billion worth of American gested cuts put them closer to Mr. These comments oversimplify, to the weakening of the American econ- make this kind of progress with the Bush than to their own would-be par- be sure. Pentagon planners have to real estate since the mid-1980's, al- omy, which has left businesses-and Europeans, with Mexico and many though the pace slowed significantly ty standard-bearers, an embarrass- think about length of combat, troop individuals less able to afford im- other countries" but not Japan, said last year. fact that is just beginning to dawn fotations, maintaining an industrial Senator Lloyd Bentsen, the Texas base and the like. ports. A Lasting Difference on several of them. Democrat who heads the Finance They are also in the business of Recession Is Cited Committee. But Harold Malmgren, a deputy Legislators, Democrats and Re- publicans, say they are worried that selling insurance. The U.S. bought a "At least half, maybe two-thirds, of United States trade representative the year's improvement was due to during the Nixon and Ford Adminis- faster reductions will lead to swelling great deal of insurance against Mos- the recession," said C. Fred Berg- A Shrinking Deficit trations, said that slow growth in unemployment rolls. But the Penta- cow for 40 years, mostly well spent. sten, the director of the Institute for American industrial wages and the gon is not supposed to be a jobs Americans paid the price not because International Economics, a Washing- trimming of corporate middle man- agency, and a particularly expensive they thought Moscow really would ton public policy research group. The excess of imports over agement had made a lasting differ- one at that. Concerned legislators attack Europe or the U.S., but be- And the widening trade gap report- exports, in billions of dollars. ence in keeping American goods af- would better serve their country if cause the effects of Soviet military ed for December served as unwel- fordable in foreign markets. The they followed Senator Sam Nunn's might had to be counterbalanced and come news for Mr. Bush's re-election '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 main threat to American exports this because the actual use of that might campaign. as the seasonally adjusted 0 '01 year lles in the possibility that the would fundamentally damage Ameri- deficit deteriorated by $1.77 billion weakness of foreign economies will can security. Currently imaginable from November. -20 cause a rise in the dollar's value, he J. Antonio Villamil, the Commerce said. The threats to U.S. interests are trivial by Department's chief economist, said comparison. the increase in the deficit in Decem- -40 The trade deficit announced today ber was not significant because a may be worse than it seems because campaign Democratic Presidential candi- dates have solid arguments for the third of it reflected a decline in air- -60 it includes only goods and because craft exports, which vary enormously exports are often undercounted, sev. time bomb. one-third cuts in spending they pro- pose, and should press their case from month to month as planes worth -80 eral economists said. The nation ran harder. And Congressional Demo- $100 million or more apiece are deliv- an estimated $34 billion trade surplus ered in bunches. -100 in services last year, largely because crats should look again at their own But private economists generally of a big increase in foreign tourism. position and do their part by pushing lead and put their minds to creating agree that as other industrialized na- the:Pentagon to justify its much high- -120 A report last month from the Na. new jobs for military personnel in tions' economies continue to slow education and new uses for unneeded er./spending projections. Otherwise down this year, making them less tional Research Council estimated the peace dividend will vanish in the able to buy American exports, trade -140 that American exports of goods were military bases. undercounted by 3 to 7 percent, or $13 usual "complexities" of Washing- balances in 1992 will more likely re- In any event, the size of the defense semble the December results than billion to $29 billion last year, because ton's political bazaar. -160 budget should be set relative to over- the overall improvement in 1991. duties were not charged on them. all national priorities and a realistic The United States will avoid deteri- Including the undercounting and Source: Commerce Department services, the nation's trade in goods judgment of external threats. On and services was nearly balanced these counts, Democratic Presiden- Continued on Page D16 The New York Times last year. tial hopefuls make more sense than their Congressional counterparts and George Bush. The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21. 1992 On My Mind A. M. ROSENTHAL Buchanan's Free Ride Give Mideast They did not create Patrick Bu- thy, bulldozed his way right over the Talks a Boost chanan's victory in New Hampshire American press in the 50's. - the recession and the Administra- Maybe that's because journalists tion's long lost-weekend case of eco- have a soft spot for "underdogs." By Richard W. Murphy drawal of Israeli forces from Leba- nomic staggers did that. But suddenly Personally don't care what kind of a non. A 12-month timetable would be stricken with pusillanimous paralysis dog a candidate is. I just want to be reasonable, with the first six months told if it is carrying fleas. he fighting in southern the press, politicians and President devoted to training and re-equipping gave Mr. Buchanan a nice, comfort- President Bush: He let Mr. Bu- T Lebanon between Isra- Lebanese Army units for deployment chanan walk all over him. Worse, el and Hezbollah, re- able, free ride on his way. in substantial numbers In the south, viving memories of the Walt, stay with this, even if you neither he nor his surrogates acted as integrating the Israell-supported loathe the man. 1 have good news if they had even heard of the regular warfare that began af- Armyof South Lebanon Into the Leba- Buchananite nastinesses about Dr. ter Israel's invasion of toward the end about fighting him. nese Army and disarming the re- But first: The press, which could Martin Luther King. small "d" demo- Lebanon in 1982, points up the urgen- maining militias. crats, Jews dragging the U.S. into cy of diplomacy on that front. The spare armies of reporters and cam- Movement on the ground would war, and his anti-gay rantings, on and fragile Mideast peace process needs eramen to track down every charge start in the seventh month, with a about a candidate's sexual adven- on. tangible success to keep the parties phased withdrawal from the south tures and hunt earnestly for exam- Nor were there peeps from the engaged. Until now, hopes have been coinciding with a takeover of respon- Democratic candidates or almost- pinned on the Israeli-Palestinian ples yet uncovered, just couldn't talks, but when the parties reconvene sibilities for the "security zone" by spare a few bodies to probe into Mr. candidates. Et Mario, too. That hurts; Lebanon. To achieve any elements of maybe he forgot. Monday, they apparently will bring Buchanan's past. this package, maximum Lebanese- Now, the promised reward. In Cali- no new positions to the table. Only the I am not talking about secrets but Lebanon-Israel talks may have the Israeli cooperation as well as super- his own words and attitudes, while on fornia, an elected Republican politi- the Government's payroll or when cian is showing the courage and intel- potential for significant movement. vision by the U.N. or a combination of countries would be essential. ligence needed to handle the Buchan- The Lebanon front presents the masquerading as a journalist. What possibilities of early diplomatic U.S.-sponsored Israell-Lebanese do they tell us about this man who ans: say what they are, not behind the hand, not in embarrassment, but out moves and military redeployment. It negotiations in 1983 falled, under very wants to be President - about his does not confront Israel with the different conditions, to develop a sus- angers against blacks, Jews, gays loud as 8 matter of plain duty. He Is choice of land for peace vs. peace for tainable agreement, largely because and others not to his tastes, about his Representative Tom Campbell, whose peace, as the other fronts do. Likud the talks excluded Syria and because fondness for a variety of dictators, his district includes the Silicon Valley and and Labor leaders stress that Israel Israel erred in linking its withdrawal disdain for Americans who think de- who is running for the U.S. Senate. has no territorial ambitions in Leba- from Lebanon to Syrian withdrawal. mocracy is a way of life that the U.S. Before the New Hampshire prima- non and that it respects the border. Since then, Syria has agreed on an should try to encourage in the world. ry vote, Mr. Campbell decided that, This is not to say progress in the arrangement worked out under the Instead, reporters and editors al- "silence is unacceptable" and sent an lowed him to wave them off with unsolicited statement to the Simon Israeli-Lebanese talks will be easy. Israel has maintained a limited force breezy contempt and false denials on Wiesenthal Center in Los Angeles, in southern Lebanon since withdraw- those occasions they did ask ques- named after the great Nazi-hunter ing most its troops in 1985. It de- Israel and Syria tions. Columnist friends and TV part- and working in his tradition. The statement tears into Mr. Bu- scribes this sector, five to eight miles ners gathered their wagons, and chanan's "obsession" with Jews, his deep, as a security zone, and says it should pull out tenderness toward war criminals, his must remain that way to protect "bizarre revisionist claim" that the northern settlements until the au. of Lebanon. British let a million German P.O.W.'s thorities in Beirut demonstrate they From press, die, his evil remark about the group can physically control the area. politicians, "fantasies of martyrdom and hero- Many Israelis doubt that Beirut ism" of Holocaust survivors. can prevent terrorist infiltration so auspices of Saudi Arabia, Morocco The Buchanans can be sent back to long as the Syrian Army and Iran's and Algeria to pull its forces back into President. armed clients remain in Lebanon. the shadows, the Louisiana way. Loui- the eastern Bekaa Valley by this Sep- Syria has made plain it will neither siana defeated David Duke through tember and then to negotiate a final withdraw its army from Lebanon nor withdrawal with the Lebanese Gov. coalitions of whites, blacks, Jews, block what it calls Palestinian "free- Christians, Republicans, Democrats, ernment. The proposed diplomacy in counterattack weapons, around him. dom fighters" and militias such as workers and businessmen, united by the south complements and does not Other journalists got all choked up the determination that this man Hezbollah from operating against Is. contradict this agreement. when Mr. Buchanan decided that rael before an Israeli withdrawal. would not represent them. Lebanese-Israeli talks will not there might be some votes in throw- It is past time for the press to do its To cut through this standoff, Wash- produce a separate peace treaty. Bei- ing the unemployed a few more bene- job. It is past time for politicians and ington and Moscow, co-sponsors of rut's interests are too intertwined with fit checks after all. Keep an eye out voters of both parties to put Buchan- the talks, should call for the with- those of its Arab partners to get that for more articles about the wiser, anite assaults beyond acceptability. far out in front of them. But all partles kinder, gentler Buchanan. "Protest votes" duck reality. On Richard W. Murphy, a senior fellow to the Mideast talks should recognize don't relish slanging away at jour- the phone, Mr. Campbell posed the at the Council on Foreign Relations, that a diplomatic success this year, nallsts. But it has to be said that over issues in two questions: was Assistant Secretary of State for even If it directly affects only Israel all, in print and on the air, the cover- Do Republicans want Patrick Bu- Near Eastern and South Asian Af- and Lebanon, may well restore confi- age of Patrick Buchanan, a man who chanan to represent them as head of fairs from 1983 to 1989. dence that diplomacy can work. came out of the dark shadows of the their party? America First past and wants to drag Do Republicans and Democrats us back Into them, was the mushiest, want this man to be President of the most protective and unprofessional United States? since his Idol, Senator Joseph McCar- Anything else is evasion. Japanese Cut U.S. Investing Japanese investment in United nese investment even if the Japanese States real estate tumbled to $5 bil- provided only half of the equity in the lion last year, according to a report project. released yesterday by the accounting Nevertheless, virtually all indexes firm of Kenneth Leventhal & Compa- of property investments by foreign- ers show that there has been a sharp ny. Within the context of earlier Le- drop in Japanese investments in re- venthal reports, the 1991 investment cent years. The downturn in the do- figure represents a 61 percent decline mestic commercial property mar- from the 1990 level of $13 billion. The kets account for much of the decline, Leventhal report noted that Japanese but the Persian Gulf war, the reces- investors are having some of the sion, and the financial shocks that same problems that are besetting Tokyo felt over the course of 1991 also American financial institutions and contributed. Also, in April 1990. the developers and that low-cost capital Japanese Ministry of Finance im- is far less abundant in Tokyo today posed real estate lending restrictions than it was a few years ago. on Japanese financial institutions Though widely used, Leventhal's that have only recently begun to ease. studies of Japanese real estate in- "A restrictive monetary policy, vestments tend to exaggerate the higher bank capital requirements, a amount the Japanese spend in the declining stock market, the banking United States on property deals be- industry's low profit margins, and cause the company counts the entire declining land prices have changed value of a real estate project as a the profile of the Japanese financial Japanese Investment even If Ameri- system," the report noted. can partners are providing half of the On a cumulative basis, the office cost of the project. If, for example, a sector attracted the most Japanese Japanese-American partnership de- investment, 38 percent, followed by velops a new building for $200 million, hotel/resort with 26 percent, with the entire $200 million would appear mixed-use buildings and residential in the Leventhal numbers as a Japa- properties both at 11 percent. The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 David Small A Confederacy of Fools? By Molly Ivins wrong, blame Mr. Black. Southern voters But any decent populist, Tom Har- kin for example, can make David AUSTIN, Tex. Duke look no-how by pointing out that may surprise "the people on welfare" (Duke's code A the herd of Presidential candidates rounds phrase), did not create the S.& L. that first curve and everyone. debacle, now costing us half a trillion heads south - thun- bucks. The people on welfare are not dering into Dixie pre- responsible for the orgy of mergers pared to eat grits and and acquisitions and leveraged talk down to the populace. We are Red and rice. Blackened red dirt. buyouts that left the corporate econ- about to witness the quadrennial po- or course, there are regional differ- omy staggering with debt, and unable litical effects of the popular assump- ences that will work for and against to make it through a recession. The tion that a Southern accent is the some in the current crop of candi- people on welfare aren't the ones who equivalent of a low I.Q. dates. Paul Tsongas is minus-zero on spent $2 trillion on the military in the One might hope that the enduring the Elvis scale, but that won't hurt 1980's without raising the taxes to pay stereotype of Southerners as a collec- him as much as the sad fact that the for it; leaving us with a deficit the size tion of slope-browed ridge-runners butterfly stroke is just not real big on of a galaxy that now eats half of every would have been shaken by the re- the Southern sports pages. If only he tax dollar we pay. sults the last time out. You remember played ice hockey instead; of course, As for our native son, Bill Clinton of 1988, when all the candidates came we have no ice here, but it looks as Arkansas, and his even more native south and carried on obligingly about rough as football. On the other hand, campaign strategist, Jim Carville of the need for a strong national de- Southern women do like gentlemen; Louisiana, they'll have to answer to fense, daringly endorsed traditional Tsongas should probably study South- precisely the most caricaturish ele- family values and courageously com- em women. ments of the Southern stereotype milted to no-new-taxes. Jesse Jack- The South honors the warrior tradi- socially conservative Southerners do son won seven states. tion more than most regions, which not much care for wife-cheaters and But one forebodes that the South's should help Bob Kerrey. Florence draft-dodgers. Of course, even funda- actual maverick politics have not King, a distinguished daughter of Vir- mentalist preachers are in no posi- made a dent in the national presump- ginia, once described Southern men- tion these days to wax indignant over tion that most of us are borderline tal life as "a Cecil B. DeMille screen- scarlet wimmin. A television comedi- morons. More powerful than magnolia, play sired by a Sir Walter Scott nov- an said the other night that Gennifer moonshine and mint Juleps, stronger el." But when you ponder the prepon- Flowers looks like a lady even Jimmy than the image of red-necked, black- derance of Southerners In the mili- Swaggart would have passed up. hating bigots, is the notion that the tary, keep in mind that the United The President is supposed to have a South is the land of the Big Dumb. States Army is almost certainly the lock on the Southern White Male Vote, What to my wondering eyes should most thoroughly racially integrated but I'll put money on the proposition appear in this very newspaper just a institution in the nation. that Bubba is going to like Buchanan. few years ago but the headline, "South- Ah, race, the Southern curse. "If All in all, I think we can expect the ern Practice of Eating Dirt Shows ya'll have come so far on race, ex- South to do the unexpected. Bet Signs of Waning." Sheesh, no wonder plain David Duke, huh, explain him." against the conventional wisdom, Yankees think we're a trifle slow. Have you been to Louisiana lately? sports fans. Any takers for Jerry I'm a lifelong Southerner and never We've been hearing a lot about the Brown? met a mud-muncher myself. Roy terrible pain in New Hampshire Blount, another son of the South, was economy gone bust, folks without moved to invent an entire menu based jobs. don't want to get into a wound- on this to-him-novel regional custom. matching contest here, but you want to put our pain up against their pain, Bill Set for Mild Curb on Car Imports Molly Ivins, political columnist for go right ahead. What people in pain the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, is au- often do is look for someone to blame, threatened to veto protectionist legis- since 1987. thor of "Molly Ivins Can't Say That, and there's a sorry old Southern tra- By KEITH BRADSHER lation, and Democrats have yet to Mr. Baucus's move is particulari Can She?" dition - whenever anything goes overturn any velo by President Bush. surprising because he has oppose Specialto The New York Times White House trade officials declined protectionism and his state, Montant WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 - The to comment on Mr. Baucus's proposal does not make cars. He joined Sena chairman of the Senate subcommit- until they saw the details. tor Lloyd Bentsen, the Texas Demo tee on trade says he will announce The Democratic chairmen of the crat who is chairman of the Financ legislation on Friday calling for mild House trade subcommittee and Ways Committee, in successfully leadin; restrictions on sales of Japanese and Means Committee both oppose last year's legislative battle to giv. cars, in part to head off, stronger import limits, and together with Mr. President Bush the authority to nego protectionist bills now being pro- Bush are likely to prevent protection- tiate a free-trade agreement with posed. ist bills from becoming law, said Rep- Mexico. And he led a group of sever Senator Max S. Baucus, the Mon- resentative Don J. Pease, an Ohio farm-state Democratic Senators wh tana Democrat and free-trade advo- Democrat on the trade subcommit- crossed party lines last summer " cate who heads the Subcommittee on tee. support the President's renewal 0 International Trade, said in an inter- Mr. Baucus proposes to cap Japa- China's preferential trade status. view that he considered the passage nese auto makers sales of imported The new proposal by Mr. Baucu of some restrictions likely. and American-made cars at the 1991 would require the Administration " His new willingness 10 accept some level of 3.6 million vehicles. His bill persuade the Japanese Governmen limits signals the changing mood in to restrain its companies' car sale: Congress as it responds to the linger- for a series of two-year periods. Ja ing recession, Japan's persistent pan has participated in recent, so trade surplus and the rise of protec- A Senate free- called voluntary restraint arrange tionist sentiments across the nation. ments, or V.R.A.'s, with the United Tighter restrictions on Japanese car makers, Mr. Baucus said, are trader hopes to States In the steel and machine too industries, while Japanese auto mak "likely, given the political currents, ers have limited their exports to the Americans worried about jobs, elec- head off stronger United States without the explicit tion year." participation of the Japanese Govern- protectionism. ment. Mood Swings The United States current limit of Many senators and representatives 2.3 million cars from Japan has nc still contend that the passage of legis- direct effect because Japan sends lation remains unlikely. "The mood in would require Improvements in only 1.8 million. Annual sales of an Congress changes with the occasion; American car quality - as measured other 1.8 million cars by Japanese- it hypers up and then it cools off,' by the quality standards applied to owned factories in the United States Senator Frank H. Murkowski, Repub- applicants for the Commerce Depart- are not restricted. lican of Alaska, said today. "I don't ment's annual Baldrige Awards as! Mr. Baucus said that his bill was think a consensus is building." a condition for the renewal of the car not protectionist because of the condi- Representative Jim Leach, Repub- sales limit every two years. tion that American auto makers Im- lican of Iowa, was more cautious, Senator Donald W. Riegle Jr., Dem- prove their own quality. "There is no contending that how well Japan ad- ocrat of Michigan; Representative doubt that whenever there is a V.R.A., heres to voluntary agreements nego- Richard A. Gephardt, the majority the American consumer pays a tiated during President Bush's trip to leader from Missourt; and four price,' he said, because domestic and Tokyo last month would determine House Democrats from Michigan foreign auto makers are able to whether Congress passes protection- suggested tighter restrictions on Dec. charge more when fewer cars are ist legislation this year. 20. They proposed that Japanese auto available. "That's why in return the "If the Japanese don't walk the sales be reduced by 250,000 cars each American Industry has got to invest extra mile to support and more than year through 1996 that the trade defi- and retrain." support the modest agreements the cit with Japan does not shrink by at He added that voluntary restric- President enacted, Congress could least 20 percent. tions by the Japanese without his well pass country-specific legislation The Commerce Department an- legislation would risk padding the in the guise of more generalist legis- nounced today that this deficit wid- pockets of American auto makers, lation,' he said. ened last year to $43.4 billion from and their shareholders. without forc- The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 1992 Republicans and the President. Bush's Allies Are Told Not to Attack Buchanan in Georgia, the Next Battleground Charles Black, the senior adviser to Mr. Bush's campaign. said in an inter- view today that the campaign "has no plan 10 unload on him right now," but for battleground for Mr. Bush and Mr. uncontested victory in California, the But other Republican political advis- Mr. Bush's adopted home state and the added: "Our intention is 10 respond By MICHAEL WINES big state in which Mr. Bush is consid- ers said today that a sustained attack victim of an economic downturn over and not let it go unanswered this time. Buchanan. The Georgia primary Is on Specialio The New York Times March 3. ered politically vulnerable and the sin- by Mr. Buchanan could seriously injure much of the last three years. It depends on what he does." WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 President gle most important state In the Novem- Mr. Bush in Georgia, where the econ- "The expectations for Buchanan in Other officials in the White House Bush's re-election strategists told their Mr. Buchanan is expected to use the ber general election. omy has sagged, and even in Texas, Texas are lower, and I think Buchanan and in Mr. Bush's national and Georgia Georgia operatives today 10 refrain same kind of slashing political attacks feels he can do Jamage there," said campaigns said the President would from attacking Patrick J. Buchanan, on the President that drew 37 percent one Republican strategist who does not shun an assault on his opponent for the insurgent Republican in this of the Republican vote in New Hamp- work for Mr. Bush "And remember, it now. In his first major opportunity. a spring's primary races, even as the shire this week and underscored the Bush's 'Home' Seeks Bankruptcy was Bish's home state when he lost it to speech on Friday to Republican lead- White House signaled that it would weakness in Mr. Bush's political sup- Bentsen" - a reference to Mr. Bush's ers in South Carolina, Mr. Bush is make Mr. Buchanan's record a cam- port. Some analysts have claimed that failed race in 1970 against the current expected 10 refer 10 some issues on Mr. Bush's failure to respond in kind HOUSTON, Feb. 20 (Reuters) to renegotiate terms with the prl. senior Senator from Texas, Lloyd Bent- which he and Mr. Buchanan part ways, paign issue. contributed to his relatively slim vic- The owners of the Houston ho- mary lender, Prudential Insur- The move in Georgia hinted at Inde- sen. such as protectionism, but to refrain tel President Bush calls home cision among the strategists as to tory there. ance. To again underestimate Mr. Buchan- from any outright attacks. have filed for bankruptcy. Lawyers for the owners said whether Mr. Bush can secure his par- In the South, Mr. Bush's advisers an's potential, one of Mr. Bush's cam- As expected, the White House said A suite at the hotel, the Housto- the bankruptcy filing was unlikely ty's nomination quickly without using paign officials said today, would be a Mr. Bush would visit a number of believe that B more prosperous econ- nlan Hotel and Conference Cen- to affect operations because the negative political tactics that would omy will help the President avoid an grave mistake. "If he goes one or two Southern primary states in the next ter, has long served as Bush's hotel Is under a long-term lease to anger Mr. Buchanan's conservative embarrassment like this week's vote. more states after Georgia and has 10 two weeks, including stops in Georgia, official residence for tax and vot- a separate company, the Housto- backers. On Wednesday they called New Hamp- put up with a 35 percent. 37 percent Texas, Florida, Alabama and probably ing purposes, though he rarely nian Hotel and Conference Cen- It also suggested that they remain shire an "aberration," saying the eco- showing" from Mr. Buchanan, "he is Tennessee and Mississippi. visits Houston and spends much ter, Inc. confident that the President's major nomic hardship spurred voters to back dead," the official said of Mr. Bush, The President is scheduled to open of the summer at his home in Texas Democratic party lead- campaign themes - that he cares Mr. Buchanan as a protest against all adding, "He will be like Jerry Ford was his Maryland campaign in suburban Maine. ers used the bankruptcy to jab at about economic problems and has the of the Government's leadership, not in 1976 mortally wounded, and bleed- Washington on Monday, and will make The hotel's owners, Burdened Mr. Bush about the economic best program to cure them - need Mr. Bush in particular. ing from every part of his body." is six-day trek through California, Tex- with about $28.5 million In debt, troubles affecting millions of oth- little tinkering in the aftermath of At the White House today, Mr. Bush's as and Georgia next week. Those advisers contend that the mostly from renovations to the er Americans. "I think this might Tuesday's strong showing by Mr. Bu- deputy spokeswoman said the cam- President Is strong in Georgia and has 300-room hotel, filed for bankrupt- help him get the message," said chanan in New Hampshire. paign is "certainly going to take a an excellent chance to sweep through cy protection under Chapter 11 on Ed Martin, the state party's exec- Georgia, the first of eight Southern more aggressive approach" to Mr. Bu- Real Estate news: the South without another strong Bu. Tuesday after four years of trying utive director. states that hold Republican primaries chanan's candidacy now by defining Wednesday, Friday, Sunday next month, is viewed as the next ma- chanan showing. That would allow an the differences on issues between him The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Pennsylvania Trouble Shadows Specter in Senate Race By MICHAEL deCOURCY HINDS Some political analysts believe the Specialio The New York Times more than $5 million, and expects to 62-year-old Senator may be heading for spend more than $7.5 by November PHILADELPHIA, Feb. 20 - Last trouble. Mr. Specter's tireless style of cam- November, when for the first time in 30 "Arlen Specter is perilously close to paigning comes from a 25-year politi- years Pennsylvanians elected their becoming the issue in this race, and first Democrat to the United States cal career in which he lost as many being put irretrievably on the defen- races as he won. He was born in Wich- Senate, politicians across the country sive," said Michael L. Young, a profes- took note. Now, with the political land- ita, Kan., graduated Phi Beta Kappa sor of politics and public affairs at from the University of Pennsylvania, scape here still rumbling from Senator Pennsylvania State University in Har- served in the Air Force and, at Yale Harris Wofford's landslide victory risburg. "And one of the most reliable Law School, was editor of the Yale Law over former Attorney General Dick axioms in modern politics is that if you Journal. Thornburgh, the state's Republican become the issue in the race, the race He worked as an assistant district Senator, Arten Specter, is running for is over and you lose." re-election to a third term. attorney in Philadelphia and, at the age So far, Mr. Specter dominates his While Mr. Specter is way ahead of of 35, began his political career as potential opponents when it comes to the pack of candidates jockeying for District Attorney of Philadelphia. He name recognition, political support, ran unsucessfully for mayor in 1967 positions in the April 28 primaries here, campaign finances and organization. before winning a second term as Dis- political analysts say he is increasingly In the Republican primary Mr. Spec- trict Attorney in 1969. vulnerable because of the long reces- ter, who recently won the party's near- He then skidded through a series of sion, the voters' anti-incumbent mood ly unanimous endorsement, faces Mr. defeats, losing a third term as District and a ballot headed by a President Freind, an eight-term State Represent- whose re-election efforts are having Attorney in 1973, a senatorial primary ative from a suburb of Philadelphia. serious problems. in 1976 and a primary for the governor- Mr. Freind, 47. is best known as the Mr. Specter, a onetime Democrat ship in 1978. A year later his wife, Joan, main promoter of an anti-abortion law with one of the most liberal voting won a seal on Philadelphia City Coun- that is now being considered by the records of any Republican in the Sen- cil, where she still serves. Mr. Specter United States Supreme Court. narrowly won the 1980 election to the ate, has also alienated some of his Three Democratic Contenders Senate and was re-elected by a com- supporters. Conservatives still criti- The Democratic candidates are fortable margin in 1986. The Specters cize him for voting against Judge Rob- crt H. Bork's nomination to the Su- Lieut. Gov. Mark S. Singel, who is run- have two sons - Stephen, 31, a college ning against the wishes of the Gover- teacher in California; and Shanin, 34, a preme Court in 1987, and many women were outraged by his prosecutorial nor, Robert P. Casey; Robert Colville, lawyer in Philadelphia who is an advis- grilling of Professor Anita Hill in Judge a five-term District Attorney of Alle- er to his father's campagin. Clarence Thomas's nomination hear- gheny County, and Lynn Yeakel, a 51- David L. Buffington, who last fall ings last October. year-old fund-raiser for women's or. was the first political analyst to predict ganizations and who lives in a Philadel that Mr. Wofford would defeat Mr. Ridiculed In 'J.F.K.' phia suburb. The Democratic Party Thornburgh, a former Governor of Making matters worse for the Sena- has endorsed Mr. Singel. Pennsylvania, said there would be no for is that the election year opened with If it is clear that Mr. Specter has upset this year. "Democrats are divid- the star of a popular movie, "J.F.K.," political problems, it is unclear how ed, Specter will out-spend everybody. calling him a liar and ridiculing him by deep they go. and he works and he works and he name. So far more than 525,000 Penn- "A lot of women are angry about works," Mr. Buffington said. sylvanians have seen Oliver Stone's Arien Specter's performance during the Thomas hearings, but this isn't the time to indulge our anger because we Rumblings from need his leadership in the Senate on women's issues," said Elizabeth Hrenda-Roberts, executive director of 'J.F.K.' and the Planned Parenthood, Pennsylvania Af- fillates. Thomas hearing. Mr. Freind has raised little money New York but says he has bout 5,000 volunteers from the state's anti-abortion move- movie, in which the actor Kevin ment. Senator Specter and the three 2 Democrats Struggle to Push Costner, playing the role of Jim Garri- Democratic candidates support a son, the New Orleans District Attorney, woman's right to choose abortion. refers to Mr. Specter as "an ambitious Many conservatives are also angry Each Other Off April 7 Ballot junior counselor" who perpetuated at Mr. Specter who, according to the "one of the grossest lies ever forced on American Conservative Union, votes the American people." with conservatives only 34 percent of By MICHAEL SPECTER Mr. Specter, who served as an assist- the time. ly state the filing time begins at 9. ant counsel to the Warren Commission, Dropping all previous restraint or called the movie "absurd" and said it "His Bork vote weighs very heavily reservations, the two leading Demo- "If you were trying to think of a way against him, but the way he conducted cratic Presidential candidates yester- to discourage participation in democ- "mangled the facts on the single-bullet theory" that he devised Mr. Specter the hearings has relieved most day bitterly challenged each other's racy you would come up with New was the first to rule out a conspiracy by of that stigma," said James 0. Pick- right to appear on New York's primary York election law,' said Julian Palm- ard, a Republican from Lancaster who ballot on April 7. er, executive director of New York theorizing that one bullet killed Presi- is a leader of the party's conservative "We didn't start this and we didn't State Common Cause, the public af- dent John F. Kennedy and wounded the wing. "Arlen Specter also has strong want it, said Harold Ickes Jr., the fairs lobby. "It's an abomination." Texas Governor, John B. Connally Jr. Many experts on the assassination say positions on law enforcement, anti-gun state campaign chairman for Gov. Bill All campaigns, as well as the state the theory strains credulity, but it has control and economic development." Clinton of Arkansas. "But now we have Democratic chairman, John Marino, 'A Lot of Red Flags" 10 defend ourselves, and believe me, we busied themselves yesterday by blam- never been disproved. will." ing everyone but themselves for the The brief mention of Mr. Specter's Mr. Specter says he knows his cam- Mr. Ickes and aides to former Sena- mess. Mr. Tsongas, whose campaign name in the movie draws applause or paign has some trouble spots. "I see a tor Paul E. Tsongas of Massachusells blamed Mr. Clinton's campaign, which shouts from detractors in theaters lot of red flags," he said in an inter- each say they have no desire to throw said it wasn't at fault, clearly has the across the state. At some theater exits view. "But there are too many prob- their opponents off the ballot. And both most to lose. With only 14,000 signa- campaign workers for his opponent in lems in this country for me to become the Issue." sides say their challenges are "defen- tures, Mr. Tsongas is the candidate the primary, Stephen F. Freind, hand sive." But the actions could well mean that political observers say would most out leaflets that try to raise more While the Senator did not officially that the primary will be fought in Fed- likely get knocked off the ballot. Mr. doubts about Mr. Specter's record. begin his campaign until Feb. 10, in a eral court before voters gel a chance 10 Clinton, by comparison, filed a petition Mr. Specter refuses to address what sense he has been campaigning non- choose a candidate. with nearly 50,000 signatures, and the he calls his opponent's "scurrilous stop for the last 11 years. He often Jim Armenakis, Mr. Tsongas's state likelihood that they will survive any charges," and has joined other mem- criss-crosses the state, visiting each of chairman, said: "If they dump us off challenge seems strong bers of Congress in calling for the Pennsylvania's 67 counties every two the ballot, think a good bet you will Mr. Armenakis said that If the elec- release of sealed documents relating to years, and has held more than 400 see the next step occur in court. This is tion board rejected Mr. Tsongas, cam- investigations of the assassination. "town meetings." He has also raised obviously not what anybody wants." paign officials would challenge the no- tion that New York State election laws Complex Election Rules could override national Democratic Clearly, however, somebody does Party rules for selecting delegates. want it. because all efforts to prevent Mr. Marino said that he wanted ev. the Byzantine and cumbersome chal- eryone on the ballot and that he would lenge process failed. New York State's continue to work to resolve the differ- election laws, which at times appear to ences before next Monday, when the have been written before the Enlight- campaigns must spell out the specific enment, are the most complex in the grounds for their objections. Like liter- country. To appear on the Democratic ally every other participant in the dra- ballot a candidate must collect at least ma, he called for an overhaul of the 10,000 signatures from registered par- election law. an unlikely possibility be- ty members. At least 100 signatures cause the laws almost always cushion must come from each of the state's 34 incumbents and make life more diffi- Congressional districts. cult for new candidates. The petition requirements are notor- Mr. Marino, a political soldier for jusly complex. Despite a strong show- Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, reserved his ing in this week's New Hampshire pri- harshest words for the Clinton cam- mary. for example, Patrick J. Buchan- paign. Last week the campaign de- an has already been precluded from clined to enter a "nonaggression" pact running against President Bush in New proposed by Mr. Marino because it York. failing to obtain the required would have applied to anybody, wheth- number of signatures. Candidates have er they had 10,000 signatures or 10. been thrown off the ballot because their "You could see this coming,' he said. petitions were filed on the wrong color "And now it is going to be ugly." paper. Others were rejected because they used paper clips to fasten their entries rather than staples. One local legislator was disqualified several Watch for colorful Part 2's of years ago because he filed his petition The New York Times Magazine. at 8:30 in the morning. The rules clear- The New York Times NEW YORK. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 SOME SENATORS SEE LITTLE RISK OF WAR Inquiry Into Abuses INQUIRY INTO H.U.D. AtH.U.D. Produces YIELDS GUILTY PLEA Say the Military Is Inflating Its First Guilty Plea Its Concerns as Tactic to Continued From Page Al Inflate Its Budget, Too By DAVID JOHNSTON Specialto The New York Times scheduled to be sentenced in August. WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 - In the The felony he pleaded guilty 10, at- By ERIC SCHMITT Specialto The New York Times first successful prosecution in the in- tempting to evade Federal taxes, car- ries a maximum penalty of five years WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 - Several quiry into influence peddling at the members of the Senate Armed Serv. Department of Housing and Urban De- in prison and a fine of $250,000. ices Committee today challenged some velopment, a New York State business- The prosecutors said in papers made of the war scenarios that the Defense man close to former Secretary Samuel public today that Mr. Singletary failed Department has prepared to help the R. Pierce Jr. pleaded guilty today to to include $13,424 in income on his military services plan their budgets attempting to evade taxes on income return for 1985. He and his wife report- through the end of the decade. he received from a consulting firm that ed income of $57,762 that year. Had he After a hearing with Adm. David E. reported the additional money, Mr. Jeremiah, who is the Vice Chairman of had a grant from the housing agency. The businessman, Samuel P. Single- Singletary would have owed $5,883 the Jomi Chiefs of Staff, several sena- tary of Pleasantville, entered his plea more in taxes. tors cast doubt on the likelihood of The money that Mr. Singletary failed United States involvement in the seven before Judge Stanley S. Harris of Unit- to report was paid to him by the Center possible wars outlined in internal Pen- ed States Court for the District of Co- for Resource Development, a consult- tagon planning documents. lumbia, admitting that he gave the ing firm that received a H.U.D. techni- The classified scenarios, disclosed in Internal Revenue Service false infor- cal assistance grant from a discretion- press reports this week, are the first mation about his earnings in 1985. afy fund supervised personally by Mr. detailed military plans drafted by the The plea agreement was reached Pierce. DuBois Gilliam, a former depu- United States for the post-cold-war era. with Arlin M. Adams, the independent ty assistant secretary at H.U.D., told a Significant levels of military spending prosecutor who is investigating influ- House subcommittee two years ago would be required well into the next ence peddling and fraud at the housing that Mr. Pierce asked him to steer the century to sustain forces capable of agency while Mr. Pierce was Secretary grant to Mr. Singletary's firm. fighting and winning one or more of the Today's guilty plea represented Mr. seven hypothetical conflicts. during Ronald Reagan's Presidency. Adams's first conviction in his two- As part of the deal, Mr. Singletary "Incredibly Unilkely' year-long inquiry. He has obtained in- agreed to cooperate fully with the pros- dictments against two other people, Some senators expressed concern to- ecutors, and Mr. Adams agreed to drop Leonard E. Briscoe, a Texas developer, day that the Defense Department tax-evasion charges relating to Mr. and Lance H. Wilson, who was Mr. might be exaggerating some potential Singletary's returns for 1986 and 1987. Pierce's former executive assistant. threats to justify robust military Prosecutors also said they would ask Both have denied wrongdoing. spending and to shield the Pentagon the judge to waive fines or a jail sen- Betsy K. Wanger, a lawyer for Mr. from future spending cuts. tence for his crime. Mr. Singletary is Singletary. would not comment on the "Some of these scenarios are incred- case, but Mr. Singletary's agreement ibly unlikely," Senator Carl Levin, to cooperate suggested that prosecu- Democrat of Michigan, said in an inter- Continued on Page A13, Column I tors believe he may provide them with view. "If they are used for budget information about Mr. Pierce's activi- rationale, they could undermine the FOR THOSE FAVORING CREMATION WOODLAWN ties as the top official at H.U.D. strength of the Pentagon's budget re- Cemetary offers from pemphiet giving complete infor mation Call Comment From Pierce Lawyer quest." Among the hypothetical threats are Paul L Perito, a lawyer for Mr. another Traqi invasion of Kuwait, a Pierce, said, the guilty plea will have North Korean attack on South Korea no effect on the former H.U.D. official. and an attack on Lithuania by Russia. "I do not believe that the guilty plea "We can see through these scenari- will directly or indirectly impact on os," Senator John W. Warner of Virgin- Mr. Pierce." he said. ia, the ranking Republican on the Mr. Adams's investigation inquiry Armed Services Committee, said in an began after Congressional investiga- interview. "I don't think Congress tions, news accounts and an internal should put limits on their hypothetical report in 1989 that showed severe man- planning, but then we have a right to be agerial lapses in a program that pro- critical of them." vided financial incentives to develop- 'Not Predictive," Pentagon Says ers to upgrade apartments for people with low incomes. Admirai Jeremiah, the military's Subsequent inquiries by lawmakers second-ranking officer and head of the uncovered possible fraud, waste and Pentagon working group that prepared favoritism and numerous cases in the list, defended the planning as an which millions of dollars in H.U.D. con- essential guide to help the services tracts were awarded to developers who shape their forces and budgets, in this had formerly held senior jobs at the case for the years 1994 through 1999. agency or had political contacts there. "The question for the services really Mr. Singletary worked as a consult- is, are you prepared 10 deal with sce- ant for the Center for Resource Devel- narios like these, and if so, what kind of opment from 1984 to 1987, advising shortfalls in munitions or spare parts cities on how to apply for community might you expect," he said. development grants financed by The planning outlined in the docu- H.U.D. The center itself sought techni- ments - described as "illustrative" cal-assistance funds from the agency and "not predictive does not mean out of the discretionary fund super- that any of the scenarios are imminent vised by Mr. Pierce. or Inevitable, and Admiral Jeremiah Mr. Pierce has known Mr. Singletary stressed that it would be wrong to for years, and Mr. Singletary worked describe them as contingencies. 00 the H.U.D. Secretary's unsuccessful Senator Sam Nunn, the Georgia campaign for a New York judgeship in Democrat who is chairman of the com- 1960. "Mr. Pierce knew Mr. Singletary mittee, said the Pentagon had refused as he knew other people when he was in to give the documents to the commit- New York," said Mr. Perito, who added tee. Admiral Jeremiah cited the classi- that the two men have not seen each fied status of the files, although the other in years. Pentagon frequently gives committees A report issued by a House Govern- classified documents. ment Operations subcommittee that in- Senator Nunn said the refusal put vestigated H.U.D. in November 1990 senators in the awkward position of found that, like many of the agency's making decisions on military spending programs, the Technical-assistance without the same information avail- program was often used to benefit pri- able to The New York Times, which vate organizations like Mr. Single- first reported on the documents. tary's rather than the cities they were "We're in the position of demanding advising. it now. Mr. Nunn said. "We entitled In addition, the subcommittee found to anything The New York Times that in 1985 the H.U.D. Inspector Gen- gets.' eral had been highly critical of the The Senate hearing was the main management of the technical-assist- event m a day of developments that ance program. The Inspector General could affect the Pentagon's proposed also found that the center had "not $281 billion budget for the fiscal year acted as a responsible contractor" and that begins Oct. 1. recommended that the firm be barred The Congressional Budget Office re- from future government contracts. leased a study concluding that the $180 In May 1985, H.U.D. had awarded a billion in Pentagon spending cuts an- $321,000 technical-assistance grant to nounced last year would ultimately in- the Center for Resource Development crease economic growth if the savings that was to be used to help the New are used to reduce the budget deficit. Jersey cities of Camden and East Or- The study found that if the money is ange attract private development. used to reduce the deficit, the Pentagon cuts would increase output by about $50, billion a year. or six-tenths of 1 percent, by pushing down interest rates and thus spurring investment. The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992. Corporate Tax Cut Deleted As Democrats Polish Bill cut provision had attracted no visible By ADAM CLYMER support, even from corporations. The bill now has $79.1 billion in tax Special to The New York Times cuts and $93.5 billion in tax increases. WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 - Con- Senator Lloyd Bentsen, the Texas gressional Democrats moved today Democrat who is chairman of the to increase the chances for passage of Senate Finance Committee, said in an their tax proposals. House leaders interview that he would seek to attach dropped an unpopular corporate tax a measure intended to improve ac- provision and a powerful Senator said cess to private health insurance to he would try to include a politically the tax bill. The measure would set attractive health insurance measure Federal standards for insurance in the bill. companies and prohibit them from House Democrats, after a second discriminating against people with day of party caucuses dominated by existing medical problems, who now continual criticism of a proposed one- have difficulty obtaining insurance at percentage-point cut in the corporate affordable rates. It would also make income tax rate, decided to eliminate it easier for small businesses to ob- the provision from the bill entirely. tain group policies. On Wednesday, they had decided to Mr. Bentsen said his proposal, limit the cut to two years rather than which has wide support in Congress make it permanent, as first planned. and has been generally endorsed by Those shifts were aimed at winning Preident Bush, should be part of the Democratic votes for the six-year tax tax bill, both to get action on the bill, whose centerpiece is a tax credit insurance measure quickly and to of up to $400 for married couples, make the overall package more at- financed mainly by raising the high- est personal income tax bracket to 35 percent, from 31. The corporate tax Continued on Page D4 Corporate Tax Cut Deleted Democrats Polish Bill them quite conservative, and nine Continued From First Business Page Republicans, some of them fairly lib. eral. tractive politically. The committee will begin voting on He-said including the health insur. the measure on Thursday, and Mr. ancè measure would make it harder Bentsen may find he has broader for Mr. Bush to veto the bill, as Re- support for his insurance proposal, publicans have threatened because of which has considerable Republican the provisions raising taxes. backing, than for the underlying tax sure makes it a positive pack- measure. aged' he said, adding that he did not Military Savings at Issue think that overall health care reform. could be enacted this year, but that The acknowledgement that any tax this was an important "interim step. cuts would be paid for with tax in- Mr. Bentsen also announced, after creases also ended a disagreement a caucus among Senate Democrats, with Senator Robert C. Byrd, the that any tax-cut bill his committee West Virginia Democrat and chair- reparted would be financed by tax man of the Appropriations Commit- increases. Last fall he had proposed tee, who has insisted that any savings paying for tax cuts with a cut in from military programs go to domes- tic needs. In fact, under the 1990 budget act, military savings this year can be used only to reduce the deficit. But A: popular health the House Government Operations Committee voted today to amend that measure may turn act so that the savings could be used for domestic programs. Before the uptin the tax vote, Representative John Conyers Jr., the Michigan Democrat who heads that committee, called the re- proposals. striction "an outdated and unnéces- sary budgetary straitjacket.' The Bush Administration is gener- ally opposed to eliminating the so- military spending. The shift in ap- called internal firewalls in the budget proach puts him on the same track as act. The proposed change is expected House Democrats. to come to the House for a vote in late He said he thought that along with March or early April. "better access to health care," any The tax bill is expected to come up Senate bill should include a tax cut next Wednesday or Thursday. "The for the middle class, probably fo- bill will pass," Speaker Thomas S. cused on children, and a cut in capital Foley said after today's caucus. gains taxes "targeted to try to en- He said the House would also vote George Tames for The New York Times courage new business and small busi- on Mr. Bush's proposals. "It's my Senator Lloyd Bentsen, chairman of the Finance Committee, who is ness and venture capital." view that in that comparison, this seeking to add a health insurance provision to the Democrats' tax bill. Mr. Benisen said he did not want to does more for tax equity and fairness, get into numbers today, but would this does more for economic growth, make a proposed bill public on Mon- and It's more fiscally responsible," day. He does not dominate his com- he said. threat? We have to make our judg. Texas Republican who is his party's mitree the way Representative Dan ments, and the President has to make Asked If Mr. Bush's promised veto senior member on the Ways and Rosienkowski, Democrat of Illinois, dominates the tax-writing Ways and did not reduce the Democratic bill to his." He said that if Congress gave Means Committee, complained today: way every time a President threat- Means Committee, if not his party, in no more than a "political document," that the Democrats were being unfair ened a veto, that would "create a the House. The Finance Committee Mr. Foley replied: "No. Is not the in not permitting him to make dictatorship.' consists of 10 Democrats, some of President's threat just a political changes in the President's proposal Representative Bill Archer, the that will be offered on the floor. The New York Times NEW YORK. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 RESEARCH SPENDING IS DECLINING IN U.S. AS IT RISES ABROAD A LONG TREND IS REVERSED U.S. Spending on Research and Development on Decline Since '89 Federal Study Worries Analysts, Who Fear Nation Is Losing Continued From Page Al tions in profits and sales, and a certain amount of consolidation, there's been a Its Edge in Innovations ly on the private side, I'd be concerned. Research Spending Slips slowing in research and development." That's the research closest to commer- From a peak in 1989 of $78.83 billion, cialization and marketable products." Research and development spending In the U.S., in 1991 dollars. annual research spending by American Dr. Frank Press, president of the industry dropped to $77.84 billion in By WILLIAM J. BROAD National Academy of Sciences, a feder- TOTAL 1990, according to the report. It was the American spending on research and ally chartered organization of scien- $140 billion biggest drop in three decades. development has begun to fall for the tis Mat advises the Government, 'Probably Will Get Worse' first time since the 1970's, even as ag "We especially need to ask 120 J. "II's bad news," said Erich Bloch, foreign rivals increase their invest. WIP industrial research is down when former director of the National Science ments in research, a Federal science for other countries it's going up," he 100 Foundation. "And It probably will get agency said yesterday. said. "That's a matter of concern." The amounts spent on research by News of the overall drop came in a 80 INDUSTRY worse. A couple of years ago, the level- ing off had to do with restructuring. the Federal Government and private 487-page report, "Science and Engi- But the drop now has to do with the neering Indicators. Its author, the Na- Industry each fell, worrying many ana- 60 recession and restructuring." tional Science Board, is the policy-mak- lysts. They fear that the nation islosing ing arm of the National Science Foun- Even before the decline, the rate of its edge in the international race for dation, a Federal agency that supports 40 growth had fallen sharply. Between discoveries and innovations that can science research and is responsible for 1980 and 1985 the rate of annual growth form the basis for new goods and serv- monitoring the nation's overall scien- 20 for industrial research was 6.9 percent ices. Lific health. in inflation-adjusted dollars, the report The National Science Board, in its The biennial report is meant to give said. Between 1985 and 1990, it fell to 1.2 0 biennial report on the health of the decision makers in Government, Indus- percent. nation's research enterprise, said over- try and academia concise information 60 '65 70 75 '80 '85 '90 The report also noted that the Ameri- all spending on research by the Fed about national trends in science spend- can share of the global market for ing. education, manpower and the vari- Source: National Science Board '91 (prellminary) eral Government, industry, universt. high-technology goods had fallen from ties and private patrons slowed during ous fruits of the research enterprise, 40 percent in 1980 to 37 percent in 1988. the second half of the 1980's and began including patents, scientific papers and The New York Times The report, which is required by Con- new technologies. to fall in 1989, ending an era of extraor- gressional legislation, is submitted by In recent decades, the only other 1989 with an annual national expendi- dinary growth. gested that the 1991 total might go the National Science Board to the Pres- drop in overall science spending OC- ture for research and development of down further. ident, who in turn provides it to Con- Recession and End of Cold War curred in the early 1970's as the United $154.31 billion. After that peak, the "The dip." said the Federal analyst, gress. The current volume is the 10th in States reduced space research after A Federal analyst, who spoke on the amount for 1990 fell to $151.57 billion. who spoke on the condition of anonym- a biennial series begun in 1972. the Apollo moon landings and cut back condition of anonymity. said the de- The figures are in constant 1991 dollars on military research amid an early ity, "is not simply in Federal dollars to cancel the effects of inflation. In a preface to the report, Dr. Duder- cline was caused by cutbacks in mili- but in almost all sectors. thaw in the cold war. stadt of the National Science Board The report said that preliminary tary research with the end of the cold The new report shows that the Unit- "The bottom line for industry is that data suggest that the total for 1991 will noted the rapid changes around the war and by industrial reductions ed States, beginning in 1975, embarked they had tremendous growth in the be about the same as 1990. But a Fed- globe and warned that American re- prompted in part by the recession. on a spending spree that climaxed in first half of the 80's," the analyst said. eral analyst working on the data sug- search priorities and programs must "And now, with a change of expecta- be "refined and reshared in adont Dr. James J. Duderstadt, president of the University of Michigan and chairman of the National Science Board, said In a statement that the decline, when coupled with educational woes, "should give us real concern for the continued vitality of our research enterprise." He noted that the United States. de- spize the drop. still leads the world to overall.spending DO scientific research. Yet analysts already edgy about U.S., Low Key After Israeli Raid, America's status In the global contest for economic advantage expressed worry about the research decline. Tries to Prevent Spread of Combat American spending is falling. they said, as similar Investments by Japan and Germany are rising rapidly. By ANDREW ROSENTHAL Specialis The New Yerk Times "Clearly It's another warning sign," said Kent H. Hughes, president of the WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 - The Unit- was linked to bombings of American, ed States offered a restrained public French and Israell military targets in Council on Competitiveness, a private group in Washington that seeks policies response today to the Israeli raid in the 1980's that killed hundreds. Lebanon. But Administration officials But the Bush Administration does to promote industrial vigor. "Especial- said they were privately seeking to not want to be seen to be condoning insure that the fighting does not spread assassination and said it deplored all Continued on Page A16, Column 1 and were persuaded that Israel did not killings on "all sides." intend a larger-scale operation. Administration officials said the Beyond that, Israel's move to sweep United States had been in contact with aside a United Nations peacekeeping Syria, Israel and Lebanon to warn lead- force In southern Lebanon clearly em- ers in those countries to be, as one barrassed the United States, since President Bush has made much of the official put it, "careful about any poten- tial of an escalation." United Nations' enhanced role as a The White House said the United peacekeeper since the Persian Gulf States was "deeply concerned about war. the renewed cycle of violence in south- The Administration repeatedly em Lebanon. Margaret D. Tutwiler, characterized the Israell advance as a the State Department spokeswoman, limited move to wipe out a single guer- said Washington had made "high-level rilla outpost that had been firing rock- démarches to those involved to urge ets into nothern Lebanon, and Miss the exercise of maximum restraint." Tutwiler said Israel's public state- Embarrassment to U.S. ments to that effect echoed what the United States was being told privately. The Bush Administration deliberate- "The Israell Government them- ly avoided any condemnation of the selves, it is my understanding have Isruell action, but the attack puts the said that this was a small, armored United States in a difficult position. element that went after an alleged Ka- Washington does not want to inter- tyusha launching site," she said. "The fere with Israel's attacks on Shite Israeli Government, It's my under- Muslim guerrillas in southern Leba- standing, has said this activity Is lim- non, and it Is clear that Israel's assassi- ited. both in terms of space and time. It nation on Sunday of Shelk Abbas is also my understanding that the Is- Musawi, the leader of the fundamental- raell Government has said that they ist Party of God guerrillas, was in intend for this operation to last about 24 American interests. The Party of God hours." The New York Times NEW YORK. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Associated Press Campaigning above the din of the negative press message of greater government action in exchange attention that confounded his campaign in New for a higher degree of personal responsibility is Hampshire, Gov. Bill Clinton's challenge in the heard. He chatted with Mike Herrington, right, at a South, he said yesterday, is to make sure that his cafe in Winter Haven, Fla. Political Memo Clinton Task: Making Message Heard By GWEN IFILL past two days, hoarse from his nag. preside over the execution. of a con- Specialit The New York Times ging New England head cold and victed murderer on Jan. 24, said he WINTER HAVEN, Fla., Feb. 20 - ready for a slower campaign pace. considered Mr. Tsongas's position an But Mr. Clinton denied published attempt to "fudge" on the issue. Standing together just out of reach of reports today that he was scaling But he also said that he does not the handshake of Gov. Bill Clinton, back his efforts in Maryland, which plan to emphasize their disagree- the Dionne brothers came to the town park here today looking for answers. holds its primary on the same day as ment on the capital punishment issue None of the three young men, ages Georgia, March 3. Nonetheless, he to win votes in the South, where many 18 to 22. have any health insurance, told reporters he considered Mary- people favor the death penalty. and two are taking courses at Polk land a Tsongas state. "I've never tried to use the death Community College here in the hope "1 would expect that a lot of people penalty as a political issue,' he said. there would agree with some of the "It's just that we have a law that we that it will help them find other jobs. things he has said, because they are agree with and 1 follow it: That's my Because of their economic circum- stances, all three still live at home. more upper middle class than middle position on it." class," he said. He said New Hampshire voters be- "Getting George Bush out of office is a big issue for us, whether it's Bill Mr. Clinton's theory ignores the came convinced that Mr. Tsongas fact that Maryland is a state more was the candidate with the best new Clinton or somebody else," said Pete Southern in nature than Mr. Clinton ideas because "my ideas were blown Dionne, the eldest brother. His brother Henry, 21 years old, may realize and that its two largest out of their consciousness for three said, "I'm personally not concerned metropolitan areas - Baltimore and solid weeks." Prince George's County near Wash- He added, "And in the last eight about the accusations and the mud- ingion have majority black popula- days when we finally got the cam- slinging,' and added, "Since George Bush has been President, my father tions that supported Jesse Jackson in paign going again, what got people 1984 and 1988. excited was the idea that I was a has lost job and I've lost my job.' None of the brothers had ever Mr. Clinton has scored well among fighter, that I could plainly be Presi- heard of Paul E. Tsongas until the former Jackson supporters in polls in dent, that I could plainly stand up to other states, and all his Southern George Bush and fight and argue." former Massachusetts Senator won Mr. Clinton salvaged his New the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential primary two days ago. Hampshire campaign by engaging in what one of his advisers later de- They were more familiar with Mr. scribed as a "high-wire act" in which Clinton because he is from the South. But their presence at the Clinton rally 'What got people he was forced to perform credibly on live televison five times within a sin- was due more to curiosity than com- mitment. excited was the gle week, including three nationally It is these voters - young. male, broadcast programs. alienated - that Mr. Clinton must idea that I was a Looking to TV win if he is to regain his footing and The Clinton campaign is now count- win the Democratic nomination. To do so, his advisers realize, he must fighter.' Ing on turning its candidate's strength on television to quick advan- learn from the mistakes that nearly tage prior to the string of primaries derailed his campaign in New Hamp- that begin next week in South Dakota shire and capitalize on his convincing and culminate with the Super Tues- second place finish in New Hamp- campaign stops are well-attended by day grouping of 11 primaries and shire. black elected officials and other com- caucuses on March 10. The Comeback Kid' munity leaders. Gone are the rambling question- It was an artful and successful bit His challenge in the South, he said and-answer sessions Mr. Clinton held of political spin that allowed Mr. Clin- today, is to attempt to make sure that with New Hampshire voters after ton to annoint himself "the comeback his messages are heard. each speech and the late-night visits kid" at his election night rally on to doughnut shops and half-empty On the Death Penalty restaurants in search of hands to Tuesday. His advisers had started "I don't think what I did caused me shake. Instead, Mr. Clinton has spent inserting the word "comeback" into all their conversations in the hours a rocky time in New Hampshire, Mr. the last two days engaging in classic before the polls closed, and by the Clinton told reporters today in Alba- Super Tuesday strategy, hopping next day, astute campaign organizers ny, Ga. "I think I'm going to go back from fund-raising events to television in Georgia and Florida had lifted the to the Issues. I'm going to run the markets and back again. phrase from the morning's headlines campaign I started with. And I think And now that the grueling pace of and plastered it on cardboard plac- the campaign 1 started with will do the New Hampshire primary is be- ards for rallies. real well down here." hind them, Clinton campaign strate- For the first time in weeks, the Mr. Clinton also sought to play gists are beginning to hope for a little Clinton campaign had finally won the down comments made by Gov. Zell positive fallout from the events that expectations game. And with the Miller of Georgia that Mr. Tsongas just days ago had seemed only nega- would not be considered electable by tive. spotlight shifting away from Mr. Clin- ton and onto the Bush-Buchanan con- Southern voters because he opposed "Bill and Hillary are celebrities test, Mr. Clinton also had a chance to the death penalty. Mr. Tsongas has now," one of Mr. Clinton's advisers catch his breath. said he favored the death penalty said last week. "I don't know If it's a The Arkansas Governor acknowl- only in certain cases, like for drug positive or negative. I just know it's a edged as much today, commenting on kingpins. fact. But something in my gut tells a plane ride between campaign stops Mr. Clinton, who supports the death me it's 8 positive, because Americans that he had been in a "coma" for the penalty and returned to Arkansas to forgive celebrities." The New York Times NEW YORK, FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 "Since George Bush has been President, my father has lost his job and I've lost my joh." HENRY DIONNE A Politician Who Thought He Could Paul Ethemios Tsongas By KAREN DE WITT make money, joining the Boston law junior year at Smith College. Now a Special to The New York Times firm of Foley, Hoag & Eliot. He lawyer whose partnership has just SIOUX CITY, S.D., Feb. 20 - For worked for clients like Drexel Burn dissolved, she is a tireless campaign Paul E. Tsongas, the defining mo- ham Lambert. the Wall Street invest er for her husband ment of his victory in the New Hamp- ment firm that has since collapsed "I married the right person," he shire primary didn't come on election and was a lobbyist for an oil company said. "She keeps me grounded.' night, nor in the sudden outpouring of and other energy businesses, work which would draw criticism from en- Into the Arena support from Greek-Americans who had largely ignored him, vironmentalists: So does campaigning Today, on the but at a rally Wednesday With his recovery, Mr. Tsongas be- flight to South Dakota, Mr. Tsongas Man in Baltimore's Hopkins' gan thinking again of politics. and Dr. discovered that there had been a in the Plaza. Takzorian's words helped drive him mixup: he was not going 10 address News walk onto that pla- to enter the race for President the South Dakota Legislature, as he za and see all those peo- "These are not ordinary days,' Mr had thought, but was scheduled IC ple was not just another event," Mr. Tsongas said this week "And there visit the Stoux City stockyards. So he Tsongas said today in an Interview. must be a purpose in these days." held a press conference in a pig "This was a memory being made." 'Not Larger Than Life' arena. The big turnout was special because The candidate said he didn't expect If the candidate is aware that he Mr. Tsongas has campaigned in 10 win the South Dakota primary but has a sanctimonious side, he definite- Maryland for only five days. wanted to give voters the opportunity ly has a down-to-earth side, as he Once again, he had taken on a polit- to hear his message. But though there showed Wednesday in New York City. lcal challenge few thought he could was a gaggle of media, there were "I'm not larger than life," he said meet. and he had done it. only a handful of voters. And at The after being greeted by crowds in As. Political analysts scoffed last April Stockyards Cafe across the street when he announced he would seek the toria's Greek-American community from where he stopped, no one want- "But you can understand how this Presidency. Another Greek from ed to hear his message. Clearly, they Massachusetts, with all the remind- outpouring of affection and expecta were mostly Republicans. tion can change you, he said. ers of Michael S. Dukakis's disas- But Mr. Tsongas says he won't Mr. Tsongas said he will be saved trous 1988 campaign, could not be a change his message, regardless of from that by his wife, Niki. Paui viable candidate, they said. the audience. His sense of focus has In the final week of campaigning in Tsongas and Niki Sauvage met at a allowed him, he says, to tell the "hard New Hampshire, Mr. Tsongas joked party in Washington 22 years agc truth" to the country, emphasizing with volunteers that their support when he was a first-term Congress- sacrifice to revive the economy. showed that they had "no political man. Within a month and a half, they When Mr. Tsongas said he was were married. instincts." considering a run for the Presidency, The oldest of an Air Force colonel's he asked his wife and their three Reveling In Victory four daughters, Mrs. Tsongas, 15, had daughters what they thought. Wednesday morning he reveled in grown up in West Germany and la Mrs. Tsongas says she never hesi- victory. "Thank you, New Hamp- pan, had worked for Senator Eugene tated: "The mysterious twists and shire, you've done it," he said before J. McCarthy of Minnesota, who rar. turns of our life have some internal leaving for campaign stops in Balti- for President on an anti-warm plat- sense. From day one, I felt this was more and New York. "You've proven form in 1968, and had just finished her possible." the pundits are wrong." By the time he visited a Greek- American neighborhood in Astoria, Queens on Wednesday his campaign, until recently a mom-and-pop opera- tion, had begun to resemble an army in size, if not discipline. Nearly 6,000 people came out to meet him in Queens, forcing a candidate who likes to meet voters one-on-one into using a police escort in Astoria. Doing It His Way But for most of of his 51 years, Mr. Tsongas has done things his way, and he has confounded the naysayers while doing It. "He was always deter- mined to do things his way, his twin sister, Thaleia Schlesinger, said in an interview this week. Paul Ethemios Tsongas was born Feb. 14, 1941, in Lowell, Mass., into a middle-class Greek immigrant fam- ily. The twins' mother, Katina, con- tracted tuberculosis shortly after their birth and died six and a half years later. Much of the time, she was in a sanitarium. "She could not touch us or be with us," said Mr. Tsongas. The children worked in the family dry-cleaning business, and Mr. Tson- gas's father, a Republican, wanted his.son to enter It when he graduated from Dartmouth College in 1962. In- stead, he joined the Peace Corps. He has described his experiences in Ethi- opia and the West Indies as "the crossroads of my life," one that gave service. him a sense of the value of public After completing Yale Law School in 1967, Mr. Tsongas ran for the City Council in his hometown and won, serving from 1968 to 1972. In 1969 he also became deputy assistant state attorney general. When he decided to run for the House in 1973, no one expected him to win, but he did. William \ In 1978, again against the odds, he unseated Senator Edward Brooke, a Republican. He planned to run for re- election, and then for President, but in 1983 cancer interrupted his jour. ney. à At the time his Illness was diag- plosed, there was no cure for the type TSONGAS SENATE PAUL of cancer he had, lymphoma. Mr. Tsongas said he never expected to live and feared that his young daugh- jer would have only a distant memo- by of him, as he did of his mother. Feeling a New Obligation In 1986, he beat the odds again, undergoing experimental bone-mar TOW treatment. He has been cancer- free since, and his doctor, Tak Tak- zorian, says only 5 percent of patients who survive the disease have any recurrence. Dr. Takzorian told Mr. Tsongas that surviving cancer obligated a per- son to do something transcendent. In his battle with the disease, Mr. Tson- gas had quit the Senate and set out to Massachusetts for his senatorial campaign in 1978. Paul E. Tsongas jogged in one of a series of races across portions of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. © 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 While Blacks Loom Large in Democratic Race, They Have No Natural Home Among the Rivals By MICHEL MCQUEEN Staff Reporter of THE STREET Southern Black Vote Carter in 1976. And in any event. at the ANNAPOLIS. Sen. Decatur early stage of the campaign the focus has Trotter. one of the Free State's senior Percentage of black adults age 18 or older been on enlisting delegates to the party in the 11 former Confederate states and black lawmakers. is trying to decide who convention. not on building grass-roots sur Maryland to support in the March3 Democratic pres- port. So it remains to be seen whether the idential primary here. judgment of leaders will necessarily be fox Alabama 22.7% "This young man Clinton, he seems to lowed by the mass of black voters. be good with the media. has ideas about a Arkansas 13.7 "Big elections are won by the margir. : vision of the coun- enthusiasm, Mr. Jackson says in an inter Florida try. Sen. Trotter 11.4 CAMPAIGN view. "The burden is upon the candidates says of Arkansas Georgia 24.5 to inspire support.' he says, "and the wa: Gov. Bill Clinton. to inspire support is to speak to real Then he sighs. "But Louisiana 36.3 92 needs' not by relying on the endorse I don't know." Maryland 23.4 ment of black opinion leaders, even him. It is a problem Big Vacuum that many black Mississippi 31.6 Mr. Jackson. who ran in 19S4 as well as Democratsare grap- North Carolina 20.0 1988 but said he wouldn't run this time. re- pling with right now. alizes there's a big vacuum. "There's pres- Black voters. though a mainstay constitu- South Carolina 26.9 sure on me to get in." he says. And he ency of the national party. comprised only 10 of the electorate in the New Hampshire Tennessee 14.3 plainly resents speculation that the party might turn to others. such as House Major- primary. where Gov. Clinton finished sec- Texas 11.2 ity Leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri and to former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas. But as the pace of the primary Virginia 17.5 or Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore, if a dead- lock develops. "I beat Gore [in 1988 in season acceierates. black votes become immediately critical to the course of the Source The Joint Center for Political and Economic white states. he argues, adding. "Does Studies. 1990 anyone think Gephardt could beat me in nomination struggle. California or Michigan or New York?" In the March 3 contest here, black voters may make up a quarter of the elec- Sen. Trotter. for example, remains un- It's highly doubtful that Mr. Jackson torate. and an even higher percentage in decided in part because of such issues. For would actually run. risking a third straight the Georgia contest on the same day. In all the senator. a Korean War veteran. the re- loss and giving up his recently launched but one of the five Southern states holding ports about how Mr. Clinton avoided being Cable News Network program. But if no prumaries on "Super Tuesday.' March 10, drafted reopen the issue of unfairness to candidate commands a strong following at least one out of five voting-age adults the poor. the uneducated and minorities. among black voters. Mr. Jackson might is black. Moreover. such big industrial "It bothers me that rich boys got to duck well seek to play a large role in the delib- Midwestern states as Illinois and Michi- the draft where poor people. black people, erations leading up to the Democratic con- gan-both of which hold primaries March couldn he says. He contrasts Mr. Clin- vention-a prospect that privately worries 17-have smaller proportions but still siz- ton's actions with the "valor" displayed by some other leading Democrats. able numbers of black voters. Sen. Kerrey. a Medal of Honor winner. Meanwhile. here in Maryland, where The problem for many of these people is But Sen. Trotter's concerns aren't uni- Mr. Clinton has an edge on endorsements that they have no natural home among the versally shared: state Delegate Beatrice from black party leaders. Tsongas cam- Democratic contenders. Mr. Tsongas Tignor says she isn't bothered by the Clin- paign officials are struggling to find some pushes a pro-business message that has lit- ton draft issue, because "black folks re- compelling argument they can use to con- tie resonance with many black voters: for member that Martin Luther King was vince black voters. "No one is more liberal him. Maryland looms as a crucial test of against the war. on your individual rights-your civil rights. whether he can transfer his appeal to an In any event. the questions surrounding your gay rights. your pro-choice-no one electorate far distant. and far different. Mr. Clinton are all the more disconcerting has as long or as consistent a record as from his native New England. and espe- because of the fact that black leaders Paul Tsongas, contends Patrick Smith. cially of whether he can attract minority across the country are following a radi- the Tsongas chairman here. "Paul votes. cally different course in presidential poli- Tsongas lived two years in Ethiopia [while Meanwhile. Sens. Bob Kerrey of Ne. tics this year than they did in 1988. when in the Peace Corps). Color doesn't make braska and Tom Harkin of Iowa both have they. along with millions of black voters. any difference to him. He's always con:- had little experience in courting black overwheliningly supported the Rev. Jesse municated well with them. and worked votes in previous campaigns. while former Jackson. Back then, many black leaders well with them." Gov. Jerry Brown of California won were seeking a candidate who could carry But analysts say Mr. Tsongas will have the Maryland primary back in 1976-is a message. This time. they are seeking one an uphill struggle to get that message having trouble being taken seriously. The who can carry an election. across here-not just because of Mr. Chn one candidate who might have excited "The thing to me in politics is. we have ton's substantial money edge. but also be. black voters here. Gov. L. Douglas Wilder to win." says state Sen. Gloria Lawlah. cause of the Arkansan's shrewd efforts to of neighboring Virginia. is long gone from who has stuck with her early support for mine the network of experienced black the contest. Mr. Clinton despite his travails. "If you elected officials that has grown up here The result is that the beneficiary should don't win. you can't change the system. I over the past decade. Maryland has 31 be-and probably will be-Gov. Clinton. feel we in the Democratic Party, we've black state lawmakers-the nation's sec. who is used to courting black voters in had our chance to do something different ond-largest caucus of black state offi- his Arkansas campaigns and who has been and we still haven't won the voters cials-and more than two dozen local the most assiduous of the Democratic pres- back." elected leaders. idential hopefuls in wooing them this year. But the pragmatic approach offers A Clear Plus But the nagging questions about his elect- risks. None of these candidates has the Mr. Clinton's Southern background. ability because of concerns over his char- support of nationally known figures like which once could have been a liability acter leave many black leaders, like Sen. civil-rights leader Andrew Young. whose among blacks. has SO far been a clear Trotter. uneasy. support buoyed the canipaign of Jimmy plus; black supporters see in him a cand:- date who has experience in forging multi- racial coalitions. Because Mr. Clinton "has been around blacks all of his life, there's a comfort level there.' says state Delegate Howard Rawlings. who represents a ma. jority-black district in Baltimore. But it will take more than that, suggests Bert Lance. the former adviser to Presi- dent Carter. He says that despite Mr. Car- ter's early ties to Mr. Young and the Rev. Martin Luther King Sr.. he still had to cement his support through specific policy positions on such issues as affirmative ac. tion. Mr. Carter's ability to do that proved crucial after comments he made regarding the "ethnic purity" of neighborhoods touched off a storm of controversy. By then. Mr. Lance says. "he had a reserver of people who were willing to stand up and defend him." That is what no candidate-including. for all his endorsements, Mr. Clinton-has at the moment. And whether he or anyone else can nurture those kinds of feelings among black voters may ultimately prove as important to the black voters as to the candidate. "This is a defining moment for Africa: American voters.' says Hulbert James. an aide to New York Mayor David Dinkins and a key operative in Mr. Jackson's last two campaigns. "In a lot of ways it was easier to support Jackson: this time people are really going to have to say why they support a candidate. And people are going to have to decide what issues really are of concern." THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. © 1992 Dou Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 Nothing Wrong, The Bushies Say, New Ads Can't Fix The two camps also disagree on the Democratic threat. Techies tend to believe Democrats will repeat their ritual hari-kiri Pat Buchanan's pounding has opened act. By summer the Bushies will be able to many cracks in the presidential facade but "define" and exploit either Bill Clinton's the most important is the split between the personal foibles, or Paul Tsongas's history status quo and the forces urging change. of northeast liberalism. To over-simplify. think of a Bush team But GOP reformers see a Democratic divided into two general camps, techno- crats and reformers. Their different reac- party struggling for a more mainstream, tions to New Hampshire reveal the main and thus electable, message. Mr. division over Bush re-election strategy, as Tsongas's pro-growth ideas and Mr. Clin- well as over prospects for the big Republi- ton's "middle-class" and welfare "respon- can royal rumble of 1996. sibility" themes occupy the sensible cen- ter. Most of the technocrats rose to power under Mr. Bush and now dominate his Besides, add the reformers, the coast- campaign-new RNC boss Rich Bond, for to-victory crowd underestimates the anti- example, and lobbyist Charlie Black. They Washington tidal wave now forming in the include the Brady bunch at Treasury and land. A status-quo president risks getting Dick Darman's $400-billion deficit gang. swamped in a tsunami ridden by an out- This crowd prizes maneuver over mes- sider Democrat. Reformers think Mr. Bush sage, defense over offense. should cast himself as the outsider by run- ning against a Dem- The reformers are sprinkled throughout ocratic Congress the second tier of Bushdom. They include William Kristol of Vice President Quayle's even more unpopu- lar than he is. staff, Jim Pinkerton at the Bush-Quayle Techies say that campaign, and such ideologically diverse would be fine, but Young Turks on the Hill as Minnesota's Mr. Bush hates at- Vin Weber and Steve Gunderson of Wiscon- tacking his Pennsyl- sin. Their spiritual leader is Jack Kemp, vania Avenue pals but their main political strategist now is and, anyway, he can the Georgia insurgent, Rep. Newt Gin- profit as much from grich. They want to turn the GOP into a "governing" as "reform" party that becomes a governing from confrontation. majority. Who will win this The technocrats think their biggest mis- debate? The techies take in New Hampshire was not running are still in control. Rep. Newt Gingrich but New Hampshire gave reformers new Potomac Watch credibility. Robert Teeter. the campaign's straddling strategist, and White House By Paul A. Gigot chief of staff Sam Skinner are listening to both sides. Where's George? I asked Mr. Gingrich, who suprised me with his optimism. "The negative ads against Mr. Buchanan. They message I get from New Hampshire is in- now VOW to "define" (read: disembowel) credibly anti-Washington," he said. "None him in the South with Desert Storm and of the Bushies are worried about Pat after ancient newspaper columns. A techie's New Hampshire. What they are worried idea of creative campaigning seems to be about is November.' That suggests private sending Arnold Schwarzenegger to attract soul-searching, despite the public Bush a crowd. spin that nothing but tactics needs to Reformers prefer beef, not beefcake. change. They want Mr. Bush to define himself, not I said I was still skeptical. Mr. Gingrich Mr. Buchanan. Savaging a former "Cross- vowed that Mr. Bush would veto the Ros- fire" host misses the main problem-the tenkowski tax bill. How about a later bill? voters' anti-Bush, not pro-Buchanan, senti- "I believe George Bush will veto any tax ment-and might make things worse for increase this year," he said, even an in- November by alienating even more of Mr. crease on the rich. "That's part of the Bush's conservative base. Focus instead on message of New Hampshire too." giving voters a reason to support the presi- Mr. Gingrich is a notorious Pangloss, dent again. and Mr. Bush is no reformer. Yet the logic But, reply the techies, we already have of New Hampshire suggests that Mr. Bush an agenda-see the State of the Union. The has little choice but to adapt or bleed. economy will recover by November in any Mr. Buchanan aims not just to wound case, public anger will thus subside, and Mr. Bush this year, but to take over the Americans still like Mr. Bush personally. GOP by 1996. A status-quo, idea-less Bush Conservatives have nowhere else to go. strategy will give him that chance. Even if Reformers rebut that New Hampshire he could personally squeak past a de-flow- shows that speechwriter Peggy Noonan ered Democrat in the fall. Mr. Bush would isn't enough; voters don't lip-read any- reap a divided party and a bloody second more. Mr. Bush's New Hampshire ads re- term. New Hampshire has told Mr. Bush peating his State-of-the-Union message that the political risk is not in fighting for could barely persuade a majority of Re- change but in standing Pat. publicans. Only by acting can Mr. Bush make his promises credible again. So he should veto Democratic tax bills, use the line-item veto, or reward Nick Brady's loyal service with a much-deserved retire- ment. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. © 1992 Dou Jones 8 Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 Taxpayers Begin to Reap the Benefits Of Cut in Withholding: About $1 a Day By LUCINDA HARPER Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Bigger Paychecks WASHINGTON money has begun Here are the reductions in weekly withhold- to flow in President Bush's plan for pump- ing at various annual pay levels for a single. ing billions of dollars into workers' pay- taxpayer with no dependents and a married checks without an act of Congress. couple with two children: You'll be forgiven if you haven't no- ticed. ANNUAL SINGL E-TAXPAYER MARRIED COUPL At the president's order, big employers PAY LEVEL. NO DEPENDENTS TWO CHILDREN are taking less money out of their workers' $20,000 $3 $7 paychecks for federal taxes. While the new withholding rate could 50,000 3 6 pump $25 billion into the economy over the 53,200 1 7 next 12 months, the typical married worker will be getting about a dollar a 60,000 0 6 day-not even enough for bus fare in most 70,000 0 7 cities. A married taxpayer with two children 90,000 0 6 will get an extra $6 or $7 a week. A single NOTE: No change will occur at wages higher than taxpayer will get half as much. $53,200 for single taxpayers and $90,200 for In his State of the Union message last married month, Mr. Bush suggested far greater Source: Pannell Kerr Forster sums, describing the added cash as "money people can use to help pay for told the Senate Finance Committee re- clothing, college, or to get a new car.' cently. But his top advisers haven't been able But Loren Lukes, tax partner at BDOC to agree on whether the change is actually Seidman here, says excessive withholding intended as an economic stimulus or just a amounts to "forced, no-interest saving." good-government idea. Budget Director Mr. Darman says some people might Richard Darman, told reporters recently, even call it "stealing" because the govern- "It's a withholding adjustment. It is not ment ish't paying interest. Lower- and described as an economic stimulus." middle-income workers are more likely Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, how- than rich people to have too much withheld ever, calls it "an enormously important from their checks, he adds. part" of the president's plan for economic One big question yet to be answered is growth. how many Americans deliberately ask Private economists say the change is their employers to take out too much tax likely to have a very modest stimulative money as a way to save. The Internal Rev- effect on the economy this year. "The re- enue Service says it's too soon to tell how duction in withholding add(s) directly to many workers are opting not to have their disposable income, which in turns boosts withholdings reduced by submitting a new personal consumption," says Oxford Eco- W-4 form to their employers. nomics USA, a forecasting firm in Wyn- David Pankonin, owner of a small farm- newood, Pa. But $25 billion a year amounts equipment dealership in Louisville, Neb., to less than 1% of total consumer spend- said he thinks most of his 17 employees ing. will opt not to get the extra bit of money in The change in tax withholding already their paychecks every two weeks. has taken effect in many workplaces, but employers have until the pay period after March 1 to comply. Exceptions will be granted for those employers who at least make a "good-faith effort," the Internal Revenue Service says. For most large companies it's a simple matter of changing computer software to fit the new withholding tables. Smaller companies often hire service agencies to handle their payrolls, or they can make the changes manually. James Medlock, proj- ect accountant for the Denver Water De- partment, said the change was made on the paychecks of its 1,100 employees in the second week of February. Most Americans will realize the change at refund time. Because this year's pay- checks are larger, next April's tax refunds will be smaller. "I think if [taxpayers find next year that a $900 or SO refund isn't there. they are going to be shocked, really shocked, and very, very disappointed, Thomas Bloch, chief executive officer of H&R Block, the nation's largest tax preparer, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. © 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Rep. Aspin Is Seeking Bush Aides Holding game. And WE re coming out strong." But he insisted that "the gloves are still on." To Cut $110 Billion Session to Formulate Those comments came the day after Mr. Bush's smaller-than-expected 377 Tuesday's primary. which fol- Of Defense Outlays Attack on Buchanan lowed a Buchanan campaign that focused on Mr. Bush's alleged insensitivity to voters' economic pain. Bye Reporter By 0 STREET Reporter WASHINGTON chairman of the WASHINGTON-President Bush's ad- The meeting tomorrow will be domi- nated by top policy officials including House Armed Services Committee is advo- visers. stung by the results of the New Chief of Staff Samuel Skinner and new do- cating at least $110 billion in defense- Hampshire primary. are holding a major mestic policy adviser Clayton Yeutter. and spending cuts over the next six years. strategy session tomorrow to decide how will be attended by campaign adviser Rob- more than twice the reductions proposed hard to attack GOP rival Pat Buchanan. ert Teeter and other key officials. by the White House. according to congres- Although spokesmen for Mr. Bush have sional aides. publicly denied any significant change in Among the ideas being debated is Rep. Les Aspin D., Wis. '. who has crit- tactics. campaign advisers and top White whether to focus more on the personal ex- icized the Bush administration for not be- House aides will be evaluating a proposed emption increase proposed last month by ing bold enough in redefining long-term series of advertisements comparing Mr. Mr. Bush as part of an economic stimulus military threats to the U.S.. is working to Bush's record and policy positions with package. The proposal was omitted in the develop a consensus around proposed cuts Mr. Buchanan's. first set of legislation President Bush sent of $110 billion to more than $150 billion by The advisers will also be reviewing the to the Congress. fall 1997. After a series of closed-door president's domestic proposals to decide meetings with lawmakers this week. aides whether refinements are necessary or whether they should highlight certain pro- Future Medical Products said that the chairman was close to an- nouncing a package that could become the posals. HAUPPAUGE. Future Medical cornerstone of a broader. Democratic- Mr. Bush himself signaled the change Products Inc. said it exercised its right to backed defense-spending plan. in tactics this week when he told reporters buy 5,227,159 shares of common of Virome- The thrust of Rep. Aspin's initiative is that "all 1 did was lay back and get ham- dics Inc. from a third party it didn't dis- in line with earlier proposals floated by mered by these Democrats and. to some close. With the purchase. Future Medical Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell of degree. by Pat. And SO it's a new ball owns 607 of Viromedics' common. Maine and Sen. James Sasser D., Tenn. chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. though they don't go as far to reduce Pen- tagon spending as many other lawmakers prefer. Protectionism Dies-Again Rep. Aspin has claimed that unlike most of the other proposals, his package of personnel and hardware cutbacks is There is a lot of debate about ex- admit he eschewed the word "protec- shaped primarily by analyses of post-Cold War international military threats. rather actly what signals New Hampshire's tionism," and didn't make it the sub- than domestic budget pressures. voters sent this week, but on one as- ject of any of his innumerable com- Some elements of Rep. Aspin's package may be changed in the next few days. and pect of their message there should be mercials. He downplayed his views on the overall numbers may be adjusted as little argument. Every four years trade and immigration when they various House Democratic leaders weigh some presidential candidates try to failed to rouse audiences. in on the debate. How quickly the services should shrink in the next two years. when sell protectionism to Granite State The exit polls show New Hamp- defense contractors are expected to an- shire voters were interested in send- nounce heavy layoffs. is likely to be a ma- voters, and in every election they re- jor point of contention. fuse to buy it. ing George Bush a message on taxes, House Budget Committee Chairman Leon Panetta D., Calif. 1. for example. has Americans do like to grouse about not trade. Some 30% mentioned Mr. held off announcing his position on how foreign-trade practices, but when they Bush's violation of his "no-new-taxes" deep Pentagon cutbacks should be until Rep. Aspin finishes his effort to draft a go into the voting booth they generally pledge as a very important factor in package acceptable to a majority of the resist blaming all their economic their vote; only 5% mentioned trade. Armed Services panel. woes on foreigners. Consider the Of those who did, 60% voted for Mr. treatment voters meted out to this Bush, the more free-trade candidate. Initial Jobless Claims year's trade-bashers. That shouldn't be too surprising in a By a Reporter Iowa Senator Tom Harkin had the state where nearly half the voters own WASHINGTON-Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the week ended enthusiastic backing of unions in push- a foreign car. Feb. 8 rose to 452,000 from a revised 434.- ing his flat-earth views on trade. He If protectionism didn't sell this 000 the previous week. the Labor Depart- ment said. ran an ad that attacked Paul Tsongas year in recession-wracked New In the week ended Feb. 1. a total of as one of several "weak Democrats Hampshire, exactly when and where 3,293,000 persons were receiving state un- who support the Bush trade plan" will it bring electoral dividends? employment benefits, down 66,000 from the previous week's revised 3,359,000. The that will "send your jobs abroad." In 1980, John Connally was an number of people receiving unemployment Mr. Tsongas fired back with a stirring early Japan-basher-and won one del- benefits fell to3.15 of those covered by un- employment insurance from 3.2% the week defense of free trade: "Protectionism egate after spending $12 million. In before. is a death trap. This country went 1984, Walter Mondale muzzled his pro- through disaster 60 years ago when it tectionist message after losing early went down that road, and it is Tom's primaries to free-trader Gary Hart. hope that people do not remember his- When Bob Dole and Pat Robertson tory." Mr. Harkin came in fourth with pandered to South Carolina primary 10% of the vote. voters in 1988 by endorsing tariffs on At the instigation of Democratic textile imports, George Bush attacked guru Bob Shrum, Senator Bob Kerrey them and won resoundingly. Dick trotted out a TV ad in which he said Gephardt's infamous Korea-bashing U.S. trade policy should be conducted Hyundai-ad helped end his candidacy like a hockey game and pledged to that year. Mike Dukakis's last-minute "tell Japan if we can't sell in their appeals to curb foreign investment market, they can't sell in ours." After fell flat. Protectionism is often touted the ad ran, Mr. Kerrey saw his poll by campaign consultants as a cure-all ratings plummet from 16% to 8%, and for politicians behind in the polls. In- he ended up just edging out Mr. Har- stead, it often ends up killing the can- kin. He at least acknowledged that the didate. commercial was a disaster. George Bush's poor New Hamp- The winners in the Democratic pri- shire showing has raised fears that mary were the two most unabashed the White House might back away supporters of open trade. Together, from its commitment to a North Paul Tsongas and Bill Clinton won American free-trade accord. Such a 60% of the vote. move would conjure up images of a Pat Buchanan's protectionist brain- panic-driven White House and further trust, the U.S. Industrial Council, is undermine confidence in the Bush touting his New Hampshire showing presidency. History amply demon- as an endorsement of trade restric- strates that in the U.S., protectionism tions. But Mr. Buchanan's advisers is a political loser. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. 1992 Dou Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 Economy to Be on Mend by November But Strength of Pre-Election Recovery Is Debated By ALFRED L. MALABRE. "It's a good bet that Mr. Bush and his Inflation, analysts explain. tends to re- Reporter of THE STREET JOURNAL advisers are keenly aware of this history main dormant or even abate early in re- The saw about laying all economists and will strive to keep the economy accel- coveries, when labor. materials and equip- end to end and their still not reaching a erating as November nears." says David ment are ample. In such circumstances. conclusion isn't true this election year. Poole. economist at Van Eck Securities productivity gains accelerate and serve to While they differ over the exact strength of Corp. In presidential-election years since reduce costs and boost profits. a recovery. most economists say that Pres- 1945. he notes. economic activity has risen Factors apart from the business cycle ident Bush will have the economic wind at on average about to and fallen only should also work to hold down inflation. his back come Nov. 3. once-in 1980. Analysts cite the likelihood of large CUL- Their judgment. of course. may prove The Commerce Department's index of backs in miltary outlays. deemed espe- wildly off the mark. Few forecasters imag- leading indicators. which tends to fore- cially inflationary since they pump huge med the economy would remain SO slug. shadow the economy's general course by sums into many pockets but do little to ex. gish for so long. Moreover. huge imponder- several months. has recently edged down. pand available goods or services. ables render their crysta! balls even more Even so. most analysts doubt this slippage Vincent J. Malanga. president of La hazardous than usual. How seriously will signals a new economic decline since the Salle Economics Inc., looks for oil at "per- record debt weigh on the economy? Or how index often weakens briefly as a recovery haps $13 to $15 per barrel by spring," down will cutbacks in defense and by strapped takes hold. They also cite recent gains in from more than $18 recently. He predicts states and localities suppress growth? Will sectors that tend to foreshadow business that "Saudi Arabia will do everything in its a trade war erupt? activity by extra-long leads. power to assist Mr. Bush's re-election ef Still. the economic consensus over the years has proved right more often than Encouraging Signs fort." A price of $15 a barrel, he adds, One is home building. where lower "would be the equivalent of about a $30 bil- wrong. and Mr. Bush can only hope that lion tax cut.' this is such a moment. for the seers' mes- mortgage rates have brought a pickup in housing starts. Anthony J. Vignola, chief Many economists believe the economy sage IS that by November the economy will economist of Kidder, Peabody & Co., notes will pick up speed even if a statement de- be clearly on the rise. with only mild infla- tion and unemployment edging down. that "increased housing activity typically velops between Congress and the Bush ad- Distinct Improvement precedes improvement in consumer atti- ministration over a plan to pep up the tudes," which remain depressed. In- economy. Maury Harris, economist of "By the time Americans head for the creased home building also leads to gains PalneWebber Inc., says, "The federal defi- ballot box. the debate won't be-as it is in other home-related businesses. "We cit already is so high and the capital mar- now-over whether the economy will re- expecting above-average increases this kets are SO sensitive" to still-rising budget- cover. but over how robust and lasting the year in such industries as household appli- ary red ink that further fiscal moves "sim- recovery will ultimately turn out to be,' ances and furniture. says Norman Rob- ply cannot play" a very stimulative role. predicts Robert Eggert. an economic con- ertson, chief economist of Mellon Bank. He Whoever wins the election may benefit sultant in Sedona, Ariz., who surveys 50 estimates that produc- later from the relatively modest recovery leading forecasters each month. tion. for example. will rise 4.5% in 1992, that most forecasters anticipate. Precisely In his latest survey-his first since against 2.77 for all manufacturing. because the upturn won't be robust. it's President Bush unveiled his proposals to Recent "accelerating growth in the likely "10 be more balanced and sustaina- spur the economy forecasters expect money supply should lift the economy in ble.' says Charles Reeder. an economic on average that the gross domestic prod- coming months. says Edward S. Hyman, consultant in Wilmington. Del. uct. adjusted for inflation. will rise at an president of ISI Group Inc. Increases in annual rate of 3.17 in the third quarter the money supply-broadly defined to in- and 3.37 in fourth. They also foresee a job- clude most savings deposits-tend to pre- less rate of 6.9% in the third quarter and cede similar gains in the economy as a 6.80 in the fourth. whole very roughly by six months. After a Such a showing wouldn't match the prolonged period of little or no increase, The Capital-Gains Tax usual performance early in a recovery. but Mr. Hyman notes that this monetary meas- it still would represent a distinct improve- ure has recently risen at an annual rate of And Divine Inspiration ment over the economy's behavior of late. more than the He's also encouraged by In the current quarter. GDP is widely ex. "the first signs in over a year of an upturn I was puzzled by one of Alan Reynolds's pected to increase less than 15 and unem- in borrowing: The volume of bank loans arguments ("The Flaw That Mars Bush's ployment seems stuck at 7.1% plus commercial paper borrowing has ex- "The momentum of the business cycle" panded since mid January. be notes. Tax Cut," editorial page, Feb. 6). He is one reason for the economy to Inventory restocking should also "con- states that when a homeowner invests to strengthen as the election nears, says tribute meaningfully to recovery" in com- improve his house, "those costs are prop- Geoffrey Moore of Columbia University, an ing months, says Robert J. Barbera. chief authority on the economy's ups and downs. economist of Shearson Lehman Brothers erly excluded from any capital gain when The economy has kept expanding. albeit at Inc. Inventory cutting in the latest reces- the house is sold." He then goes on to ar- a snail's pace. since last spring. he says. sion. he says, has been more extensive gue that is not the case when "a company and "the longer it continues to rise. the than in most postwar slumps. and SO res- likeller the recovery will spread." tocking is likely to be substantial. particu- makes similar improvements, enhancing Historically Speaking larly with recent signs of "some pretty the firm's value." Since World War 11, Mr. Moore recalls. strong gains at major retail chains." His argument is not technically correct. economic upturns have averaged about Mr. Barbera, who looks for the econ- omy to expand at a 50 rate by midyear. Under the current law, both the business four years and never lasted less than one. Nor. he adds. has a recession resumed af- also notes that new car sales increased and the homeowner get to write off once ter the economy has risen uninterruptedly in January and the climb accelerated in any improvement and/or investment in for S0 long as now. A widening recovery early February. One reason. he suspects. "will also lend strength to economies is that the average age of cars on the road, their property. Businesses write off the full abroad. ultimately reinforcing growth both at about eight years. is higher than in 40 amount, albeit over several years. While it at home and elsewhere.' he says, adding years. "Replacement demand will be a is true that the homeowner gets to write that indicators he compiles of future trends growing source of strength." he says. off all his expenses in one single year when in 10 foreign countries point to "recovery Thoughts on Inflation or continuing expansion" in eight. the house is sold. it is not at all clear that Even with an appreciably stronger Another plus. most forecasters say, is economy by election time. most fore. the homeowner gets a better deal. The dis- that 1992 is a presidential-election year. casters doubt that inflation will worsen sig. counted value of the tax shield provided by Eight of 11 such years World War II nificantly. And. they reckon. if inflation were recession-free and another nearly $0: doesn't rise appreciably neither will inter- the improvements may very well be less the recession of 1948-49 didn't start until est rates. Mr. Eggert's consensus expects than the discounted value of the tax shield just after the election that returned Presi- consumer prices to rise at annual rate of provided by the depreciation. The home dent Truman to office. Only two of the 11 3.3% in the third quarter. no higher than years were deeply marked by slumps-the this quarter's estimate, and httle change is improvements get added to the cost basis 1960-61 recession and the 1950 recession. seen for interest rates. without indexation. They are written off at the time of the sale of the house. As such, the tax shield is back-loaded. In contrast, with any accelerated depre- ciation (i.e., expensing), the tax shield of- fered by the depreciation is front-loaded and will not be eroded as much by infla- tion. This brings us to the final issue. For the homeowner and the long-term investor, indexation can bring better relief and pro- vide higher incentives to produce and in- vest than the proposed reduction in the capital-gains tax rate: 15% is fine but in- dexing is divine. VICTOR A. CANTO La Jolla, Calif. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. © 1992 Dow Jones 8 Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 House Drops Corporate Rate Reduction From Proposed Legislation to Cut Taxes By JEFFREY H. BIRNBAUM Democrats already are preparing to blame Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Mr. Bush and his fellow Republicans for WASHINGTON - House Democrats, causing such a delay. changing their tax package for the second time in as many days. dropped their pro- Still, the chance of getting a tax bill to posal to reduce the top corporate tax the president was enhanced when Sen. Bentsen reversed his earlier position and rate. That decision came after rank-and-file acceded to Sen. Byrd's demand that the Democrats questioned in a private meeting so-called peace dividend be used to pay for why corporations should be given such an increased domestic spending rather than indiscriminate benefit in a bill that is sup- tax cuts. posed to curry the favor of voters and spur The health measures Mr. Bentsen plans business investment. to include in the tax bill are part of a bill Meanwhile, in the Senate, Chairman he introduced last fall. They would prohibit Lloyd Bentsen (D., Texas) of the Finance insurance companies from denying cover- Committee agreed to prepare a bill that age to people with medical conditions and would finance any tax cuts with increases protect people with health problems from in other taxes, rather than with cuts in losing their health insurance if they change military spending. That decision placated jobs. They also would allow self-employed Appropriations Committee Chairman Rob- people to deduct the full cost of health in- ert Byrd ID., W.Va.). whose cooperation surance from their taxes and expand Medi- is needed if a tax bill is to pass. care to cover more preventive care serv- Yesterday's developments improved the ices, such as influenza shots and cancer prospects Congress will approve a tax bill. screening. But lawmakers still appear headed toward House Ways and Means Committee a direct confrontation with President Bush, Chairman Dan Rostenkowski introduced a who opposes Democrats' continued insis- companion bill to Mr. Bentsen's health leg- tence on raising taxes on wealthy individ- islation, but he isn't expected to try to at- uals. tach it to tax legislation. Before dropping the proposed corporate Foley Predicts Passage tax-rate cut yesterday, House Democrats The House Democrats' bill, which would had agreed on Wednesday to scale it back give tax relief to middle-income individ- by recommending that it last just two uals and increase taxes on the wealthy, is years rather than permanently. The Demo- expected to come to a vote in that cham- crats on the Ways and Means Committee ber next week. "The bill will pass," did away with the tax-rate cut entirely be- Speaker House Thomas Foley (D., Wash.) cause their Democratic colleagues contin- predicted. It will be considered along with ued to complain about it. Republican alternatives, which would em- phasize investment incentives and wouldn't Snubbed by Business raise taxes. The corporate community, which stood Sen. Bentsen's committee will begin to to benefit most from the one percentage devise its tax plan next week. The measure point cut snubbed the idea. Big-business is likely to be similar in concept, if not in lobbyist Charls E. Walker campaigned vig- every detail, to the House Democrats' orously against the reduction, saying he plan. Sen. Bentsen declined to discuss the preferred instituting generous tax breaks components of his proposal. But law- targeted at capital-intensive companies makers expect that the panel will endorse such as those he represents. some form of tax reduction for middle-in- Even the Tax Reform Action Coalition, come families, a tax increase for high-in- a group of lobbyists that was established to come earners and a smattering of provis- press for corporate tax-rate cuts, shunned ions to promote investment. the Democrats' bill, apparently because it In addition, the Finance Committee is also included a proposed increase in taxes expected to attach a number of health pro- on high-income people. At a meeting yes- visions to its tax bill, including measures terday of the coalition, no one even raised that would make health insurance more af- the prospect of supporting the Democrats' fordable and easier to obtain. Democrats plan, said one participant. are eager to outdo the president in this Separately, the House Government Op- election-year issue. erations Committee took the first step to- The finance panel's bill, once com- ward altering the 1990 budget agreement in pleted, probably would run into a partisan a way that would permit funds cut from wrangle on the Senate floor. President the military to be used to increase do- Bush has said he would oppose any bill mestic spending. that would raise taxes, even on the The 1990 pact requires that any savings wealthy. and Republican senators are con- from projected levels of military spending sidered likely to tie up any such measure be used to reduce the budget deficit. The with a filibuster or a long series of amend- committee bill would allow such money to ments. be spent for nonmilitary purposes. The ef- Such a tactic could make it difficult for fort is given a good chance of approval in Congress to get a tax bill to the president's both the Senate and the House, where it is desk by his March 20 deadline, though backed by Democratic leaders. Human Rights Diverted Those talking about constructive tions that provide judges to preside change at the United Nations will over this review include: Iraq, where have to pause to consider what's com- athist soldiers are kicking Shia ing out of its Human Rights Commis- heads into the dirt in the country's sion's annual session in Geneva this southern marshlands; Iran, which is Converting the Converted month. First, consider the good that persecuting its Baha'i minority; and the commission is capable of perform- Cuba, which earlier this year shot and That it is imperative to find new, the effort would require "strong inter- ing on this subject. wounded children fleeing through the peaceful endeavors for the 2,000 to national support," plus funding from Yesterday, special rapporteur on cactus fields in an attempt to defect to 3,000 nuclear-weapons experts of the foundations, academic and scientific Iraqi human rights Max van der Stoel, the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay. Former Soviet Union (FSU) is an ar- institutions and the private sector. a Dutchman, presented what could be China is also on this board, despite its gument that almost no one in the West Ultimately, the best protection for the strongest report of human-rights Tiananmen prisoners. disputes. That's of course because of the West is most likely to be found in violations in the history of this com- Chinese Ambassador Fan Guox- fears that some of these scientists mission. He concludes "that the viola- the scientists themselves. If they are iang contributed to the meeting's tone might be lured by lucrative money of- given decent alternatives, it is un- tions of human rights which have OC- by saying that "it is not proper for fers to such places as Libya. likely that many would choose to con- curred are SO grave and of such a any country to figure itself as a world Secretary of State James Baker tinue the nefarious work that has en- massive nature that since the Second judge in the international human- told a group of 50 FSU gaged them up to now. The chief sci- World War few parallels can be rights field." found." Saddam's men poured toxic nuclear-weapons experts at Chelya- entist at Chelyabinsk, Yevgeni N. One can write off the commission materials on torture wounds; the binsk last Friday that finding them Avrorin, told Mr. Baker that it is not Ba'ath Party's modus operandi, the as a mere debating society. But it is new work is a matter of the highest only important for scientists to earn a report notes, includes rape. obviously also capable of bringing the priority for both the U.S. and Russia. living but also to be in a position to do world important news. And now, foreign ministers of the Eu- important work. Against this stark reporting, now consider how the commission itself is All the more necessary, then, that ropean Community have endorsed the Surely the world has enough im- conducting its affairs. Before this ses- the body return to a sounder course. formation of a new institute in Russia portant work for them. For starters, sion the commission completed one The commission derives its prestige to facilitate the skills transfer. they could help find the most effective FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 © 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved "reform" that the New York-based from the support of powers such as ways of disarming and disposing of Security Council has been asked to Japan, Germany and the U.S. Its po- A joint effort of Russia, the U.S. most of the nuclear warheads they contemplate: Despite a "no" vote tential is great. The new leadership of and Germany, the "International Sci- built. They have much to contribute to East European countries, such as ence and Technology Center" would the announced U.S.-Russian effort to from America's beleaguered repre- Czechoslovakia or Bulgaria, come to be created in Russia to match up sci- sentative, Morris Abram, the group build an SDI system. And they have entists and projects. An EC official expanded its numbers to 53 from 43 to Geneva to see what world standards enormous contributions to make to give Third World countries more of a are for right and wrong treatment of said the price tag would be $100 mil- our understanding of the Soviet Un- its citizens. Instead, items such as the lion, with the U.S. contributing a quar- say on atrocities (most of which they ion's efforts to create truly terrible THE STREET JOURNAL. commit 1. They in turn are taking up "Right to Development" take up ter of that amount. German Foreign weapons with the tools of biotechnol- much of the Geneva agenda. Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher said ogy. an agenda that includes evaluating the human-rights status of Cuba, Yesterday's horrifying report on Burma, Iran and of course Iraq. Their Iraq suggests that there is indeed a first act was to name Iran as the need for what the commission pur- group's vice-chair. ports to be. But if the U.N. is to be The program includes a day in taken seriously, agencies with the which the commission reviews "de- high visibility of the Human Rights tention or imprisonment, torture and Commission will have to make a disappearance." But the member na- much greater effort to act seriously. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. © 1992 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Washington Wire CLINTON GAINS on the left after New Hampshire. Some fence-sitting liberals send donations after the release of his 1969 letter A Special Weekly Report From to Arkansas draft officials condemning the The Wall Street Journal's Vietnam war. Departing NAACP leader Benjamin Hooks praises the letter for de- Capital Bureau nouncing racism. BUSH HEADS for an election-year colli- UNIONS RUSH to endorse Democratic sion with Democrats over tax cuts. presidential candidates after the AFL-CIO Despite his dust-up with Buchanan in frees members to do SO. So far, 14 back Har- New Hampshire, the president won't reverse kin, who supports labor causes. They in- his decision to keep a middle-class tax cut clude the auto and communications workers. out of his short-term "action plan." Ad- Three considering Harkin unelectable, sup- visers believe voters care more about eco- port Clinton. Just about all reject Tsongas, nomic growth than middle-income tax relief. who has taken stands labor opposes. Though Bush can't be seen as opposing such a tax cut, he likely would veto a Democratic DUMPED: The Bush administration tax bill that also raises taxes on the rich. drops plans to nominate James Benkard as At the moment, Congressional Democrats the Justice Department's top environmental and the White House aren't inclined to com- prosecutor after conservative activists at- SEC Proposes Higher Fees promise; House Speaker Foley predicts Bu- tack him as too cozy with environmentalists. chanan's strong showing will increase, Under consideration: Chicago lawyer Vicki For Investment Advisers Bush's Congress-bashing. Interest in a tax Masterman, an Environmental Protection By a WALL STREET Reporter cut could end if the economy is picking up Agency official in the Reagan years. WASHINGTON - Investment ad- steam by spring, as the administration, the visers would be forced to pay annual Federal Reserve and private forecasters MOVING? Gail Wilensky, head of the fees of as much as $7,000 under a plan to now expect. agency that runs Medicare and Medicaid, is help the Securities and Exchange Com- But the optimism is restrained. The offered a move to the White House domestic- mission beef up enforcement of the ad- economic recovery, one Fed official la- policy staff. She would probably be above viser industry. ments, "has been sighted as often as Roger Porter, who recently dropped to the The proposal, which the agency will Elvis in the National Enquirer." No. 2 spot when former GOP Chairman send to Congress in the next few days, Clayton Yeutter took the top job. Porter's would set a minimum yearly fee of $300 BUSH WOULD GAIN from a crisis that plans are uncertain. for an adviser registered with the SEC. plays to his foreign-policy strengths. The charge would increase based on the Several hot spots have possibilities. Bush HEALTH-CARE CHANGES likely will be size of the adviser's assets, with firms could get tough in Haiti and try to unseat narrow this year despite much talk. managing $5 billion or more paying the leaders of the military coup; Buchanan op- The initial focus is to make health insur- maximum of $7,000 and those with $10 poses that. Libya could be made to face the ance more affordable and available. Legis- million or less paying the minimum. music if it fails to turn over two suspects in- lation would include protecting people from Currently, the 17,500 investment ad- dicted in the Pan Am bombing. The biggest being denied insurance because they have visers registered with the SEC pay a boon to Bush's campaign would be removing medical conditions and from losing coverage one-time fee of $150. But that has proved Iraq's Saddam Hussein. if they change jobs. Texas Democrat Bent- inadequate for policing the industry, But despite stepped-up, covert efforts to sen plans to attach such proposals to the tax SEC officials and lawmakers argue. destabilize the Iraqi dictator, the U.S. has bill his Senate Finance Committee takes up For example, Sen. Christopher Dodd limited ability to get a coup rolling on its next week. (D., Conn.), chairman of the Securities own. And the price of failure of any such Revising insurance is likely because "ev- Subcommittee, noted that the number of foreign adventure could be enormous. erybody sort of supports it," including Bush, SEC examiners overseeing the industry says the Federation of American Health had risen by only 10 in the past decade SOUTH DAKOTA SHOWDOWN should Systems' Michael Bromberg. The industry, to 46 examiners, while the amount of as- eliminate Kerrey or Harkin. fearing broader changes, probably won't put sets managed by those advisers has bal- Both New Hampshire also-rans need a up a big fight. Pennsylvania Sen. Wofford, looned to $5.4 trillion from $450 billion. win in Tuesday's primary in their neighbor- who was elected in large part because he While big mutual funds and money- ing state to survive in the Democratic presi- urged national health insurance, says he market funds are inspected annually, dential race. Nebraska's Kerrey has the backs "small, good steps in the name of the the SEC is hoping to cut the time be- best campaign operation; he even organizes greater issue." tween visits for the smaller advisers to Indian reservations, as the late Robert Ken- But some Democrats think sweeping five years. To do so, it wants to quadru- nedy once did. Iowa's Harkin trumpets his health-care legislation still could be ple the examination staff to 175. The Harkin-Gephardt bill to aid family farmers. pushed through this year if Bush con- SEC is proposing to pay for the addi- "The loser," says Democratic pollster Paul tinues to stumble in his bid to be re- tional examiners with the fees. Maslin, "has no chance." elected. Money is crucial. Both campaigns are nearly broke. Looking ahead, Kerrey, if he MINOR MEMOS: A man who introduced survives, has lined up some big financial himself at the recent Gennifer Flowers press support in Florida for that state's March 10 conference as Dr. Stanley Duck, voice- primary. Harkin hasn't tapped big money analysis expert, was actually political from his union backers. and his direct-mail prankster Dick Tuck. Several reporters pleas aren't bringing in the bucks. bought his analysis. Ohio Rep. Kaptur Tsongas, who expects a boost by win- promotes the competitiveness of America's ning Maine's caucuses Sunday, broad- auto-parts industry by sending reporters casts an ad in South Dakota featuring boxes of car parts made in the U.S.A. his father-in-law, a former University of The Justice Department, as first reported in South Dakota football star. the newsletter DOJ Alert, announces a nine- year plan to reduce its Washington-area fa- cilities from 65 buildings to "only" 50. -Compiled by RONALD G. SHAFER A Diplomat Explains Yugoslavia some time-warp. 1 enjoyed the sensation of "Bad sest to them." I can only echo this What is causing the rivil war in Yugo- stepping back in history. for I am some- curse. slavia! David Anderson. former U.S. am- thing of a romantic. But I could afford my With Yugoslavia's having dissolved into bassador to Yugoslavia 1981-85 and cur- romanticism except when I was a serious a series of mini-states. you will ask-what rentiu director of the Aspen Institute in Berlin, offers A diplomat's view in a letter ambassador: : the Yugoslav leaders could now? Chaos. disaster or simple economic Tax-Law Change Courts Disaster not. When confronted by nasty facts of ev- ruin, reply. None of these states. not even to his daughter. Natalie. Escerpts follow: eryday life-e.g. International Monetary supposedly prosperous Slovenia. is produc- You ask what has happened. Several Fund conditionality for loans-they would tive enough on a large enough scale to Tim W. Ferguson's Jan. 31 editorial- of the current recession. unfortunate. sad and even tragic develop- hark back to the glorious Partisan days make a modern state function. Each will ments. Tito died in 1980. 10 years too late and threaten to go off to the woods and eat page article, "Flat Tax Gets an Unfair There are additional reasons to oppose slide backward. Yugoslavia was never an to leave behind a functioning governmen- leaves before bowing to the horrible Amer- economic success story. but it always man- Hearing in California." criticized my sup- the removal of the home-mortgage deduc- tal structure. He prepared no successors. ican-dominated in their view interna- aged to muddle through. Now, most of the country is finding it difficult to do much port for the home-mortgage deduction. Mr. tion. Removing it will lower the equity ev- In fact, the Serbian and Croatian liberals tional financial institution. whose heads he figuratively lopped off in So here we are in 1992 and Yugoslavia more than subsist. Ferguson suggested my support for the de- ery current homeowner has in his home. 1971-72 were Yugoslavia's last. best hope unravels as I write. The winter will end. And there then comes the self-delusion duction was motivated solely as a way of Fewer Americans would be able to buy for a more democratic. less dogmatic sys. of each mini-state concerning its place In criticizing my al-opponent for the homes: 75% of all homeowners say they tem of governance. With their disappear- the world. All want instant international ance. the country was basically lost to the They are near tribal in recognition. in part for reasons of pride. in GOP senatorial primary in California, would not have been able to buy the home old guard of former partisans and Commu- their behavior, suspicious part out of the expectation of aid, credits. Bruce Herschensohn. Mr. Herschensohn they have were it not for the home-mort- nist Party apparatchiks. The problem for trade. membership in the World Bank and gage deduction. And eliminating the de- most observers. myself included. is that of each other (with usually IMF not to mention the U.N. They also has proposed the elimination of all deduc- we did not recognize the enormous damage all expect to be able finally to buy weap- tions from the tax code. duction will also make it very hard for that Tito had done. With his internal mach- sound reasons), friendly on only SO that they can fight the next phase The Herschensohn proposal would dev- some people to meet the mortgage pay- inations. he left Serbia weaker. Croatia not the outside but very cyni- of the civil war on a more even footing- i.e., with more sophisticated weapons. astate the housing industry at a time when ments they pay at present. much better. and SO set the stage for events 20 years later. cal, ever ready for a war or And. finally. several of them are beset it is already reeling. Following the changes Such dramatic changes of the tax laws, He compounded the failure by drawing by illusions that the West will act in deci- of the 1986 Tax Act, real estate went into S0 as to fundamentally affect investments up a constitution in 1974 that effectively a battle, and completely in- sive fashion to end the violence. For exam- decline. And that brought the savings-and- made under a prior assumption, are da- returned power to the republics-princt- pally to keep the Serbs from dominating capable of coming to grips ple. the Slovenes and Croats talk readily of the U.S. Sixth Fleet moving aggressively loan industry down. Elimination of the maging to economic efficiency. One of the the others. But as he distributed power to with the modern world. into the Adriatic to sink any ships that bombard coastal cities. Arms and amnu- home-mortgage interest deduction would most harmful things we do in our economy the republican fiefdoms. he did not de- mand a consequent responsibility for use the cease-fire will lapse. the civil war will nition will be dropped by friendly Western decimate the values built up in homes is to change the tax laws. with retroactive of this new power. Thus. there was no con- begin again-and this time. Bosnia and aircraft to communities besieged by hostil- throughout the country. S&Ls and banks effects, disrupting settled expectations stitutional glue to hold the country together Macedonia will be involved. itles. And no Serbian warplanes will be al- that made such mortgage loans would suf- about investment decisions. when he left the scene. The Croats and Slovenes knew they set lowed to overfly other republics because out on a dangerous course when they first the "West" (the U.S.) will monitor over- fer a precipitous drop in their asset-value- REP. TOM CAMPBELL (R., Calif.) Economic Tribulations Washington The economy was Tito's other major pressed for independence. The Croats. in flights and send up sorties to force the Ser- to-loan ratios. This would lead to more clo- mistake. Yugoslavia's foreign debt in the particular. were well aware that the 600,- bian aircraft to back down. sures of banks and S&Ls, more strain on mid- and late 1970s was allowed to accu- 000 Serbs in Croatia would not be left un- Modern Diplomatic Methods mulate in an uncoordinated and uncon- protected by the Serbian authorities In Bel- What of the role of the West, if any. in the mortgage insurers, more property trolled manner. The result was that by grade. And, indeed. the Serbs reacted pre- this unholy mess? would like to think that taken over by the Resolution Trust Corp., FRIDAY. FEBRUARY 21. 1992 1979-80. the country was near bankruptcy. dictably. One may debate whether the Croats the U.N., the European Community. the more real estate dumped on a declining Western assistance helped solve the prob- were provocative at the outset and the Conference on Security and Cooperation in market. and a prolonging of our economic © 1992 Dou Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved tem temporarily up to 1986 or thereabouts. but Yugosiavia's lack of financial and in- Serbs overdid things with their violent re- Europe. the Western European Union. the sponse. Whether the Serbs were intent on U.S., Germany. France or a combination slump. vestment discipline re-entered the scene 50 creating a Greater Serbia at Croatian ex- of several Western states could come up To raise these points is not, as Mr. Fer- that by 1988 the country's economic tribu- with a way to manage or at least control lations were catastrophic-including an in- pense is open to question. That SO many the conflict in what used to be Yugeslavia. guson suggests, to play on the fears of flation rate of some 2,500% in early 1989. It people died and suffered. that so many vil- lages. towns and cities were devastated- But no Western soldier is going to be sent homeowners. It is to raise a substantive is almost back at that level now. The for- eign debt problem also expanded S0 that. that is not open to question. It all hap- to die over a Serb-Croat conflict. objection to a proposal that would hurt our The U.N. forces will withdraw when the today. Yugoslavia owes creditors more pened. The bombing of cities by the Serbs shooting starts again. The EC and CSCE economy at a critical time. who well knew that no Serbian residents required protection Osijek, Dubrovnik. will not become militarily involved. The Mr. Ferguson suggests this harm could than $13 billion. You will ask if Tito alone or even the Zadar was, in the purest sense of the U.S. hopes that the whole dirty business be lessened by adopting a "transition" pe- Communist ideology he preached was re- will go away. The Germans may send sponsible for today' breakup of the multi- word. immoral. some money to Slovenia and Croatia. but riod before the home-mortgage deduction national state. I am of the view that Tito So. I would say. a plague on both THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. houses. But that is not enough. I ask my- very little: and any more active involve- is eliminated. But from the date of enact- and his variation of communism were not especially important in the larger order of self whether these republics. which had CO- ment 15 out of the question. As one Ger- ment of a new law eliminating the home- existed for $0 many decades in peace and man commentator put it. we will simply things in the land of the South Slavs. Cer- even friendship. can resume the personal have to wait until all sides have exhausted mortgage deduction, whether at once or tainly. by much finagling he kept the coun- try together. Surely, the ideology gave a relationships and trust of earlier years. 1 themselves i.e.. kille. themselves off and over a period of transition, the present conclude that they simply cannot. That is then we will try to help the survivors. So value of a home will decline, anticipating rationale for various schemes and plans. much for modern diplomatic methods. most of them misbegotten. the ultimate tragedy. That IS the story as I see it. It need the eventual phase-out of the deductibility But the problem. I fear. is the Yugo- Those who brought about the evil in the old land of the South Slavs will go to their never have happy ened. What was required of home-mortgage payments. And from slavs themselves. They are a perverse was wiser leadership 111 2" of the republics group of folks. near tribal in their behav- graves knowing that they. and they alone, that fact follows the immediate harm to of Yugoslavia: less emotion and more for. suspicious of each other with usually not only ordered killing and devastation in common sense: better diplomacy by a dis- the financial industry, and the prolonging sound reasons friendly on the outside but their own land: they also put an end to the interested Western Europe and U.S.: and a very cynical within. ever ready for a war messy and untidy structure that once was readiness by the Yugoslavs generally to or a battle. proud of their warrior history. Yugoslavia. They have left behind a popu- lation that will be as divided and hostile as see the modern world as it is. But there and completely incapable of coming to was none to be found. That is a reason to grips with the modern world. anything that characterized the Balkans be sad when you contemplate this land To go wandering in Yugoslavia. long be. for several hundred years. My old Scottish where once. for a few years. you made fore the current civil war. was an adven- mother. who understands tribal antago- nisms as well as 1 understand Yugoslavia. your home-and which I once considered ture. As you will recall. we always met would say of these Yugoslav "leaders": part of me. strange people who seemed caught up in The Washington Times FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 the beginning of the end for voters understand, the problem for T the Bush presidency may A core of convictions needed the economy is not the size of the have occurred not Tuesday deficit but its rate of growth. But the in New Hampshire but four political problem for the president is years ago in the Granite State. not merely whether he can be be Campaigning for the GOP nomi- read my lips: No New Taxes: his declining approval ratings, and first, minus a second Gulf war, lieved when he talks about taxes and nation, George Bush called his chief That was all Pat Buchanan could now no doubt the New Hampshire which has camouflaged the underly- economic policy today but what he opponent, Sen. Bob Dole, a "Senator say to New Hampshire voters - al- returns themselves, are a product of ing weakness of the Bush presi- believes, if anything. Mr. Bush is the Straddle" who would raise taxes. Mr. most enough to win. It is hardly sur- "poor communication." Mr. Bu- dency. That weakness stems from its only politician around whose philo- Bush told the New Hampshire vot- prising that Mr. Buchanan went back chanan probably will invite the pres- disastrous commitment to an unten- sophical commitments allow him to ers who approved him over Mr. Dole to 1988. No conservative challenger ident to continue to communicate, as able distinction between cam- support both a constitutional amend- that he would "never raise taxes, pe- could have declined to shoot at such he did to the Globe, and Mr. Bush paigning, or politics, and governing. ment against flag-burning and a Na- riod." close, fat targets, and Mr. Buchanan, could oblige, unless he absorbs the Mr. Bush has shown that he will say tional Endowment for the Arts that Before that period was erased in in his column and on television, had message of New Hampshire. what he has to say to get elected but funds equally obscene acts. the budget agreement of 1990, his- years of practice. What is surpris- It remains unlikely that Mr. Bu- do as thinks he must to govern, all It is often said that Mr. Bush is tory shows that it grew. "The Con- ing, although perhaps by now it chanan, a protest vote for many in dissonance aside. Thus in 1990 he likely to be the last president to have gress will push me to raise taxes," should not be. is that Mr. Bush is New Hampshire, will wrest the signed on to a $170 billion tax in- served in World War II. Of more rel- Mr. Bush said in his 1988 convention experiencing amnesia. "I never did nomination from Mr. Bush, who crease, which included, should any- evance is that he holds to his genera- acceptance speech, and to the na- take the I'no new taxes'] pledge in competes best when seriously one forget, an increase in the top tion's belief in governing as mainly a tion, "and I'll say no, and they' push New Hampshire," he told the Boston threatened. And Mr. Bush, helped by personal rate from 28 to 32 percent, matter of working with elites, the again. And all I can say to them is Globe last week. Will he also forget an economy juiced by the Federal and a jump in Medicare and gasoline public never mind. Mr. Bush's bud- that he also took it during his accep- Reserve, may indeed by re-elected. taxes. get summit perfectly expressed that tance speech? But what then? As events have proved, the budget idea. Asked in 1990 whether it would Terry Eastland is a fellow at the Bush aides, and presumably the The Republican nightmare is an agreement asked the wrong eco- Ethics and Public Policy Center. president himself, have decided that anemic second term, i.e., one like the nomic question. As New Hampshire see EASTLAND, page F4 EASTLAND From page F1 have been better to have publicly de-: bated the question of raising gas. oline taxes instead of pursuing such a policy behind closed doors with congressional leaders, Mr. Bush re- plied: "Well, I don't know that any person opposed to raising gas- oline taxes would have been more inclined to accept them if the nego- tiations had been done in public." r. Bush's kinder, gentler and M - it must now be said no-growth presidency has included few mentions of Ronald Reagan, who boosted Mr. Bush's presidential prospects by putting himon the ticket in 1980. Mr. Reagan was weak where Mr. Bush thinks himself strong, inside Washington. But unlike Mr. Bush, Mr. Reagan un- derstood the importance of forging real and symbolic links with a polar- ized electorate. Mr. Reagan united politics and governing in the con- tinuous popular dialogue of his many speeches, and he acted often enough upon his convictions - se- curing tax cuts in 1981 and tax re- form in 1986, for example - that Americans forgot when asked about the seve al times he increased taxes. It is too much to ask Mr. Bush to become an authentic conviction president, which Mr. Reagan was. But if Mr. Bush wishes to avoid being devoured in a second term, he must map a strategy for governing that does not disdain the politics of pub- lic argument and that sticks to a set of core ideas, no matter how tempting it might be for him to scrap them. The president has met the en- emy in New Hampshire, and it is he. PATRICK MICHAELS NASA, Gore, environment, liftoff n previous discursions on these The hypothesized rapid ozone said, volcanoes can accelerate ozone In fact, there are already hypoth- On Jan. 24, 1992, he took it back. Singer to broadcaster Rush Lim- I pages about atmospheric depletion mechanism is confined to depletion by supplying a reaction eses kicking about our nation's capi- From Science: "The aerosol forcing baugh, says the pronouncement was gases and other matters, we the period when the sun is either surface that temporarily resembles tal, and I'll just name a few: (cooling effects of other industrial made to hype NASA's budget and im- have already established the below or very near the horizon. what happens over Antarctica, and (1) The Naive NASA Hypothesis. activities) has likely offset global portance in tough times. following. either from first physical When the sun rises to higher eleva- they release large amounts of chlo- They really didn't know all of the greenhouse warming to a substan- (3) Saving the Save-The-Earth- principals or the refereed scientific tions, ozone is reformed. rine and similarly reactive ele- above and thought they were saving tial degree." This followed a state- Fest. My money is on this one. literature: This same mechanism is phys- ments, rapid late-winter ozone de- the world. Post-discovery of the ment that this cooling effect is"com- Apocalyptic global warming - the ically impossible in our hemisphere pletions are a common phenomenon facts will result in a retraction (after parable in magnitude to the current centerpiece of the upcoming United Ultraviolet-B radiation - the Nations June Environment Meeting kind that causes most skin cancers in any magnitude that approaches and therefore cannot be particularly the legislation has been signed and anthropogenic greenhouse gas what occurs over Antarctica. threatening to the biosphere. the citizenry billed). There is a prec- forcing but opposite in sign." in Rio- is in big trouble, as the facts has been declining across the U.S. measurement network, and most of The source of the sudden peak The scientific review time for a edent in the global warming issue. continue to counter the fantasies of chlorine ob- mainline journal like Geophysical NASA scientist James Hansen told a The disparity between reality and the industrialized Northern Hemi- don't buy this hypothesis. NASA forecasts has been exploited by the The Washington Times served in our Research Letters is six to eight hushed Congress on June 23, 1988, sphere. weeks. What was SO urgent about that "global warming is now suffi- United States a reason to not com- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 hemisphere is I knew about aerosol cooling in Ozone depletion occurs every 1988 even when they hyped probably Mount NASA's findings that they couldn't ciently large that we can ascribe mit economic suicide for this issue, winter during polar night, so NASA warming. and they know all of the Pinatubo (al- wait for review? Who is going to get with a high degree of confidence a and now there are rumblings from above about ozone. too. Naive? Do will report some at their press con- though the crit- skin cancer or cataracts moonbath- cause-and-effect relationship to the the "Third" World that they aren't ference next month. you really believe that an organi- ical experiment to ing in February in the Canadian Arc- greenhouse effect." On Feb. 11. 1989, going along. either. So how does the zation that sent men to the moon determine this tic Archipelago or Northern Scandi- he wrote in The Washington Post, "environmental president" keep didn't precalculate the downstream has never been navia - the places where an ozone "The evidence for an increasing from being tarred as the person who Patrick Michaels is an environ- depletion would be most notable - greenhouse effect is now suffi- trajectory of a press release? performed). blows up what Colorado's Demo- mental scientist and frequent con- If. as the Na- while the paper is reviewed? ciently strong that it would have (2) Budget Time. This one, cham- cratic Sen. Tim Wirth recently told tributor of articles on scientific is- tional Science As they say, inquiring minds want been irresponsible if I had not at- pioned by a spectrum ranging from sues. Foundation has Al Gore to know. tempted to alert political leaders. environmental scientist S. Fred see MICHAELS, page F4 MICHAELS (4) The Gorey Hypothesis. Most ban on CFCs by four years, and then of NASA's top leaders are on more griped when the president signed it, From page F1 than a first-name basis with Sen. AI- saying he hadn't done enough! bert V. Gore Jr., Tennessee Demo- Further, Mr. Gore has passionate crat, and they should be: Inasmuch as he controls their purse strings, feelings about the environment, as a University of Arizona audience he's the boss. evinced from his new book, and the will be "perhaps the most important plethora of misleading statements leadership summit in history"? therein (see the Feb. 17 review by I t's highly unlikely that their Julian Simon for a few, read the book Easy. Take the lead in banning ozone announcement wasn't for an order of magnitude more). Fi- CFCs, which not only are putative preapproved by Mr. Gore, but nally, he wants to be president in the ozone destroyers; they also contrib- was it in fact directed? This would worst way. ute an estimated 12 percent to cur- allow it to occur prior to those two U.N. treaty drafting meetings, and it Maybe he has reconsidered his: rent global warming potential. The reason this hypothesis fits is that would put Mr. Gore on center stage previous declination, and found the there are only eight weeks and two as the man leading the charge to save need to save the world so great that, meetings (one starting in New York the planet in the time of Gennifer well. can see the speech: "Elect me, now) left to bang out a treaty to sign Flowers, with only a few more days not for the sake of this country, for at Rio. That's about as long as it remaining to get on the ballot. He we are a mere speck upon the world would have taken Geophysical Re- rammed through the Senate, on a in a fleeting moment of time, but for search Letters to review NASA's 96-0 vote (that's the meaning of the sake of the planet." findings, and explains the urgency. "veto-proof"), a bill to move up the It can't be that simple, can it? The Washington Times FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 When the president says, as he did in the days CORD MEYER just before his debacle in PRUDEN ON New Hampshire, that he "never took the pledge" POLITICS against raising taxes, you Hard can almost believe that he believes it. When he says Wesley Pruden doesn't understand why nobody else will believe bargain him when he runs on the 'Going negative' promise, as he will in '92, that "this time I really time for mean it," you can almost believe that he believes against your own that, too. China Being burdened by nei- LBJ ther "the vision thing" nor Pat Buchanan, as pesky and as painful as he may "the passion thing" nor even "the conviction thing," he Bush administration has be to certain parts of the presidential posterior, is Mr. Bush is impervious to the shame and humili- T a more coherent and effec- not the president's problem. tive policy toward commu- The president's problem is a man named George. ation that any other politician would feel at having nist China than it has so far From all the available evidence, Mr. Bush can't had his pants taken down in New Hampshire. Pat been able to explain and defend. The Buchanan's remarkable feat of winning 40 percent initial Bush failure to respond decide whether he wants to be eaten now, by Repub- licans, or later, in his second term, by Congress. of the Republican vote is all the more remarkable strongly enough to the Tiananmen Square massacre has obscured the Like most of the politicianettes among the for his having done it against a Republican incum- fact that U.S. policy has since ma- bent who tried to prevent it. tured into a sophisticated use of car- Rockefeller-wing Republicans, the president The humiliation of Mr. Bush is far greater than rot and stick. instinctively recoils from the sock-and-slash of the 1968 humiliation of Lyndon Johnson, who never For example, the continuing con- campaigning. The Democrats are so bad at govern- campaigned a single day in New Hampshire and gressional pressure for withdrawal ing because governing is something they have to do of Most Favored Nation status from to get to campaign. Republicans, who imagine treated the primary as a nuisance. Mr. Bush spent China would, if it succeeded, most themselves managers above all else, hit the hus- the final week in the frenzy of a Chicago alderman severly damage those coastal areas in Southern China where trade and tings with the enthusiasm of a couple of teen-agers about to lose his sinecure. investment from Taiwan and Hong going out on a date arranged by their parents. You might think that Mr. Bush would have by now Rockefeller Republicans do not know, and cannot taken a look at the ruins, figured out who and what imagine, the concerns of most of us. They're willing was responsible, and raged accordingly. Any other We do not have to to defer to the liberal Democratic addiction to theo- pol would have sent Richard Darman, his budget retical solutions, which don't have to work as long chief and the architect of the Bush tax increase that provoke a general as the solutions cost a lot of money and can support sent the economy south, into the night without his trade war with Beijing large bureaucracies. Resistance is so, well, so shoes and shirt. Ditto Nicholas Brady, the Treasury secretary who has taken Alfred E. Neuman as his to bring effective undignified. When the Democrats want to raise taxes, Mr. role model: "What? Me Worry?" pressure to bear on Bush and his peers have no understanding of gang No heads rolled, and none will. The more his neb- rape, so what's wrong with going along? The 1990 bishes screw up his presidency, the more the loyal the Chinese politburo. rape of the taxpayers a $170 billion tax increase, Mr. Bush rewards them. But now the president, to with an increase in the top personal rate from 28 to avoid making his humiliation total, must campaign against Pat Buchanan as if this were not late Feb- Kong have helped private industry 32 percent and a bump in Medicare and gasoline to flourish. taxes was merely inevitable. ruary but late October. He promises to drop the kin- As State Department officials ex- Neither do the president and his men understand der and gentler, and "go negative." plain, the United States does not That's against the Republicans. Mr. Bush will no have to provoke a general trade war why it's fatal to vow eternal hostility to civil-rights doubt preserve his renomination, but to do that he with Beijing and undermine the quota legislation, and cave at the first hint that they growth of private industry in Guang. might have to pop a sweat to make Congress con- must treat his friends - the conservatives so de- dong Province in order to bring ef- form to presidential leadership. Or why the disgust spised by Rockefeller Republicans as if they fective pressure to bear on the Chi- of conservatives is nearly total, matching the con- were his enemies. He'll save Mr. Nice Guy for his nese politburo As one U.S. official has stated, "Instead of MFN cancel- tempt of liberals, when he promises to resist the real enemies. lation, we have specific tools to do bureaucracies that want to regulate America out of the job in the form of legislation and business, and goes into the tank at the first hint of negotiating strategy." confrontation with the congressional Democrats Moreover, there is evidence that tough bargaining can succeed Un- who can't wait to cut his throat. der pressure. the Chinese have agreed in writing to accede to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and to observe Missile Technology Control Regime Guidelines Beijing has been persuaded to participate in the president's Middle East arms control initiative, to place its nuclear ings Institution warns in his percep- National Assembly. for the first time cooperation with Algiers under in- MEYER tive new book, "A Fragile Relation- in 40 years. a representative body ternational safeguards, and to sup- ship." there is no clear evidence yet was chosen through popular vote. port the U.N. consensus on the elimi- From page F1 that the communist elite in Beijing Combined with a surging economy, nation of Iraqi weapons of mass is prepared to relinquish control of Taiwan democracy has become an destruction. alternative model for mainland On the trade front, China has fi- here there has been some limited the state. It is more likely that we nally agreed to improve protection progress. Some of the prisoners ac- shall see a succession of aging lead- China Through television, trade ties of U.S. patents, copyrights and com- cused of participating in the Tianan- ers as in the last days of Soviet and the visits of relatives, Taiwan puter software To avoid imposition leader Leonid Brezhnev and his suc- now is a powerful engine for change men Square movement have been of sanctions by the Federal Mari- cessors. off the China coast. time Commission. China has also leased, and China has been However, three changes have OC- Finally, Hong Kong recently held agreed to allow U.S. shipping compa- pressured by the United States to ban the export of products of prison curred in the structure of Chinese elections under British auspices in nies to establish' branch offices in power that cannot help but influence which the United Democrats won China A third round of negotiations labor. the future. First, the success and heavily against communist candi- under a section 301 investigation of But Asia Watch reports that 340 growth of private industry in the dates. As Mr. Harding points out, it Chinese market barriers begins of the Tiananmen demonstrators are southern cities is irreversible, and may be necessary to modify Amer- next Monday and will involve hard unaccounted for. Chinese lack of Deng Xiaoping himself in his recent ican law to ensure all agreements bargaining. performance in the human rights tour of the southern provinces called between the United States and Hong On regional issues, the Chinese field requires continuing publicity, for more reform, not less. Kong remain in force after it returns regime has cooperated in trying to but it will not be improved by cutting Second, an extraordinary trans- to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. With find a political solution in Cambodia, off the trade that is changing the formation has taken place in the Re- the right kind of help now, Hong has opposed North Korea's efforts to build nuclear weapons and has sup- face of Southern China. public of China on Taiwan In the Kong can continue to play its critical ported the international consensus As Harry Harding of the Brook- Dec. 21 elections for delegates to the role in the modernization of China. during the Gulf crisis. On the human rights front, it has been like pulling teeth to obtain con- cessions from the Chinese, but even see MEYER, page F4 GOP York is saying we may be having to cut off every fourth street light in the largest city in the United States," he Buchanan VOWS purge From page Al said. "It is time to think of America his campaign plane for South Caro- first," he said, bringing some in the lina, the first stop on his first South- audience to their feet. ern campaign swing. Mr. Buchanan again hammered of affirmative action "He is not out to fire people hired Mr. Bush for his "no new taxes" under quotas policies, Miss Bu- pledge reversal, criticizing the pres- chanan said. "It's the policies not the ident for his new budget that "con- tains $52 billion in new spending and tas since he launched his New people he will root out. He will put a $25 billion more in hidden new taxes By Ralph Z. Hallow Hampshire primary campaign an freeze on hiring and then go through THE WASHINGTON TIMES every department and agency to over the next five years." Pat Buchanan vowed yesterday to CAMPAIGN effort that began just over 10 weeks eliminate any policy that leads to re- He then turned his rhetorical agoand ended with a strong showing verse discrimination." guns on Mr. Bush's lapses on conser- rid the federal government of every against Mr. Bush Tuesday. Mr. Buchanan surprised many at vative social policies. policy that smacks of racial quotas "We're headed south," Angela Bay the conference by revisiting, if only "We know what that wonderful if he becomes president. Buchanan, his sister and campaign National Endowment for the Arts chairman, said by way of explaining briefly. the most sensitive of his "If I am elected, my friends, I will themes, U.S. policy toward Israel - has been doing, that upholstered the shift in emphasis of the candi- playpen of the arts and crafts auxil- go through this administration, de- date's message. an issue to which he gave little time iary of the Eastern liberal establish- partment by department and agency "In New Hampshire, people had in New Hampshire. ment," Mr. Buchanan said. "They by agency, and root out the whole other things on their minds, like the "If I read [Budget Director Rich- rotten infrastructure of reverse dis- have been subsidizing both filthy strongest on the touchy issue of af- economy and taxes, but he will re- ard) Darman's budget correctly, crimination, root and branch," he and blasphemous art. And yet while firmative action since his December turn to his other themes in the South, there are $10 billion in loan guar- told the annual Conservative Politi- antees for (Israeli Prime Minister Mr. Darman has been budget direc- announcement challenging Presi- where people have different con- tor, the funding for the NEA has cal Action Conference. cerns," she said. Later yesterday, Mr. The Washington Times Yitzhak) Shamir, $12 billion in new dent Bush for the Republican nomi- funding for the International Mon- risen every single year. Why? The statement, part of a rousing Buchanan was scheduled to board FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 nation. etary Fund," he said. "And now I really don't care what speech at the Omni Shoreham Hotel to about 500 conservative activists It was also the first time Mr. Bu- The loan guarantees to Israel [NEA-funded artist) Andres Ser- see GOP, page A8 would finance housing for Jews who rano does with his bodily fluids or from around the country, was his chanan has emphasized racial quo- immigrated to Israel from the for- what Mr. [Robert] Mapplethorpe mer Soviet Union. Mr. Bush refused does with that bullwhip as long as we to approve the guarantees, however, taxpayers don't have to pay for it," he in the absence of promises by the said, drawing laughter from the au- Shamir government not to use them dience. Also for the first time in his cam- Judiciary Committee and tell them needed at yesterday's conference. stack the poll, about 100 people, for new settlements on the Israeli- the past few decades. "In all the great intellectual and to state their beliefs and not back mostly Bush administration ap- Conference sources said they had occupied West Bank. paign, Mr. Buchanan sought to un- dermine a principal strength Mr. philosophical battles of the last 30 down, even if they are defeated," he confirmed that, at the behest of the pointees from government agencies "I don't think the American peo- said as cheers and applause again throughout the Washington area, Bush has among conservatives years, Mr. Souter, unlike Robert Bush-controlled Republican Na- ple should be required to subsidize broke out. "We will send one after walked in to pay the $50 registration his record of appointing to the Su- Bork and Antonin Scalia (both Rea- tional Committee, state GOP offi- the building of infrastructure half gan appointments), had not taken a another after another up until we fee so they could vote, presumably cials were phoning conference at- for Mr. Bush, conference officials way around the world when our own preme Court judges who are widely stand," he said. break that monopoly in the Senate believed to be conservatives. tendees from their states to urge infrastructure is in the process of Mr. Buchanan said yesterday that By contrast, Mr. Buchanan said as Judiciary [Committee]." them to vote for Mr. Bush in the gath- said yesterday. collapse," Mr. Buchanan said, again drawing applause from the audi- Mr. Bush, afraid to face down the president he "will find in this coun- Mr. Bush, surprised in Iowa by a ering's traditional presidential pref- try the most qualified constitu- major straw poll victory by Pat Rob- "There appears to have been an Senate over a clearly conservative erence straw poll. tionalists and conservatives, who ertson in the 1988 caucuses and by inordinate amount of people walking ence. "I don't think we ought to give 12 nominee, picked Justice David have taken a stand Mr. Buchanan's 37 percent showing The poll results will be announced in today to register and ask about the billion more dollars in lending Souter for the high court because, as on each of in New Hampshire this week, appar- Saturday. straw poll," said conference spokes- a judge, he had left "no paper trail" these issues." authority to the globalists of the IMF "I will send them up to the Senate ently felt a presence of sorts was In a further apparent effort to man Craig Shirley. at the same time the mayor of New of opinions on the crucial issues of And walls though peculiar kinship in 1982. since each had been hit by an assas- sin's bullet within weeks of one an- The Washington Times other the year before. "Look how the of Jericho evil forces were put in our way and FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 how Providence intervened," the pope's representative in Washington remembered Mr. Reagan saying to a collapsed friend. They felt a special mission for their lives. All this we knew then, in 1982, but all this we somehow missed then. ever has investigatory te- For the newspaper accounts told N porting been so laudatory not of amazingly sage decisions, of the American govern- which were subsequently well- ment as that done by Wa- planned and deftly executed, involv- tergate sleuth Carl Bernstein in this ing top American and Vatican aides week's cover story of Time mag- working a most delicate unwinding azine. of Polish communism. Never has a decade-later story so No, the papers then were filled contradicted the journalistic story with reports of failure. Mr. Reagan's line at the time than this look back June 1982 European swing was at "The Holy Alliance" between marred by his inability to persuade President Reagan and Pope John the West Europeans to stop extend- Paul II to "subvert" the communist ing credits to build a gas pipeline for regime in Poland. the Soviets. (One wonders how much And never was a plan hatched so money they poured in, and how the carefully that worked so well the pipeline is working now!) plan to loosen the communist Failure was reported in Mr. Rea- gan's attempting to restrain the two wars that erupted during his trip "If former CIA Israel's incursion into Lebanon and Britain's steaming straight toward Director William the Falklands. Failure was evident even in Mr. Casey were around Reagan's own staff, as his White now," a friend is House aides were constantly and publicly battling Secretary of State quoted as saying, Alexander Haig over everything from his perks to his policy. "he'd be having some There was failure reported even on Mr. Reagan's meeting with the smiles. In 1991, Mr. pope, during which he dozed off, live Reagan and Mr. Casey on television. "The Pope Meets the Dope," so it was then thought. got the reordering of Well, now it is known that their meeting set in motion the fall of the world that they communism, which Mr. Reagan had actually foretold the week before wanted." So did the when addressing the British Parlia- pope. So did the ment. At Westminster, Mr. Reagan fore- Poles. And so did we cast was what to be: "repeated explo- sions against repression" in Eastern Evangelicals all. Europe, to which even "the Soviet Union itself is not immune." The re- sistance will result in a "march of crackdown in Poland and thereby to freedom and democracy" that "will leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash end the communist rule across East- press Bush em Europe and the Soviet Union. heap of history, as it has left other "We both felt a great mistake had tyrannies which stifle the freedom been made at Yalta and something and muzzle the self-expression of should be done," Mr. Reagan is the people." quoted as saying now. He and His Left unsaid was how Mr. Reagan your attempts to portray your ad- was not content to watch this histor- Holiness were right on that, as Yalta By Larry Witham ministration as pro-family," the Rev. (and its aftermath) did seal Poland's ical inevitability happen, but took ac- THE WASHINGTON Morris Chapman, president of the fate for 40 years. "Solidarity was the tion to assure that it happened. A month earlier, as Mr. Bernstein tells Leaders of the nation's largest 14.6 million-member Southern Bap- very weapon for bringing this about, tist Convention, wrote in the letter because it was an organization of the us now, Mr. Reagan had signed a se- Protestant group have written Pres- cret order authorizing a bost of Wednesday. Laborers in Poland," Mr. Reagan ident Bush a letter warning that he adds. moves to destabilize Poland and sup- is veering from the pro-family The election-year complaint is an agenda he promised evangelical vot- early salvo from religious conserva- Right again. port Solidarity in his "National Secu- tives who backed Mr. Bush in 1988 Besides that. the Poles are a sin- rity Decision Directive 32." but say the White House has alien- gularly religious people, 90-plus On June 7. 1982, the president en- ers. The Southern Baptist Conven- listed the ever-willing pope on this percent Catholic, and singularly uni- tion's missive was triggered by a ated them. fied people, lacking any significant holy mission. They pledged toassure Feb. 13 meeting between Mr. Bush's Theletter reminded Mr. Bush that that the modern world's "liberation ethnic minority. re-election campaign chairman, after homosexual-rights leaders at- So much more fell in place to technology" fax machines, print- ing presses, computers, Robert Mosbacher, and leaders of tended White House functions in make Poland the ideal spot to begin the National Gay and Lesbian Task 1990, evangelicals were assured it communism's end. The church had photocopiers, shortwave radios, was a slip-up. video cameras and foreign radio Force. remained effective and penetrated "Having the highest-ranking "We were told that the invitations virtually all Polish organizations. broadcasts - was supplied to Soli- were carried out by a misguided, darity. member of your re-election cam The pope, of course being Polish The CIA and the Vatican; Amer- paign meet with the homosexual himself, had taken a keen interest in ican labor unions, priests, and intel- lobby is a direct contradiction to see FAMILY, page A8 every detail of the communist crackdown. ligence officers; Polish dockworkers As Mr. Reagan said, this was a and experienced diplomats all genuine workers' movement - in were organized in this stunning ef- fort. Marxist terms, a true uprising by How they did it is nicely laid out the proletariat and (perhaps most in Time magazine. That they did it important) one with magnificent leadership in Lech Walesa. makes an inspiring story even now. "If former CIA Director William While the pope and the president were both charismatic and anti- Casey were around now," a friend is communist, they also felt a special quoted as saying, "he'd be having some smiles. In 1991. Mr. Reagan and Mr. Casey got the reordering of the world that they wanted." So did Ken Adelman is a nationally syn- the pope. So did the Poles. And so did dicated columnist. we all. FAMILY "The president has to know what his in 1984 because of failures in the convictions are I don't care what conservative social agenda. From page Al his staff counsels." Mr. Reed said conservative Chris- He said evangelical leaders will tians will not vote against a candi- over eager staff member acting on have "serious contact" with the date, they just will not vote. her own," the letter said. "We call White House before Mr. Bush ad- "Outside the pro-life issue and his upon you personally to disavow any dresses the NAE's annual meeting in judicial appointments, I don't think support or sympathy for the homo- Chicago March 3. "I'd love to see him the president has done an adequate sexual civil rights agenda." affirm the God-ordained institution job reaching out to this constit- The Baptist leaders recommend of marriage," Mr. Dugan said. uency," Mr. Reed said. that Mr. Bush issue an executive or- The Southern Baptist and NAE re- More than 60 million white Amer- der modeled on that one evangelical actions come a few weeks after Sam icans of voting age identify them- leaders gave him during an October Skinner, the new White House chief selves as evangelicals. They 1990 meeting. The order supports of staff, met with evangelical lead. emerged as a key voting bloc with traditional values regarding the ers. Mr. Dugan called the session the 1976 election of Jimmy Carter. family and human sexuality and im- "positive." But Mr. Reed said that of the 89 plies that federal policy would fol- A call-in poll of viewers by Pat million voters who went to the polls low. Robertson's "700 Club" television in 1988, 20 million to 24 million were "It is our firm conviction that this show Monday night showed 71 per- the conservative Christian bloc - lorder) is your only hope in restoring cent back Pat Buchanan and 29 per- self-identified evangelicals and pro- trust on this issue with Southern cent back Mr. Bush in the '92 pres- life Catholics. Baptists and the entire evangelical idential election. community," the Baptist letter said. "Mr. Bush is in trouble to the de- In the next few months, he said, The National Association of Evan- gree that evangelicals who gave him the coalition will call on "pro-family activists" to become delegates to the gelicals reacted to the Mosbach- their vote perceive him as failing to er meeting. deliver on their agenda," said Ralph Republican National Convention in In a commentary aired Tuesday E. Reed, head of the Christian Coali- Houston. on some Christian and secular radio tion, an educational outgrowth of Mr. Mr. Reed said if Mr. Bush pre- stations, NAE Director Robert Robertson's 1988 bid for the presi- serves the pro-life plank in the Re- Dugan said: "The candidate's staff, dency. publican Party, which will come un- with or without the boss' approval, is According to exit polls, Mr. Bush der attack in Houston, religious playing both sides of the fence. Por- received 79 percent of the "born conservatives have a reason to vote. tray him to evangelicals as pro- again" Christian vote in 1988. But Some analysts say that because family, to gays and lesbians as pro- analysts note that President Rea- many evangelicals are blue-collar homosexual rights." gan's evangelical support dropped workers, the recession will force In an interview, Mr. Dugan said, from 80 percent in 1980 to 67 percent them to vote on economics. The Washington Times FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 PASCOE deal of 1990 was the worst advice he Winning game: Play on right ever took. Firing these two would be just, reasonable and applauded by those who follow these matters. To turn a double into a home run, resident Pat Buchanan? They, too, will be looking for a ness. In one fell swoop, the vast ma- Mr. Bush could offer the Treasury P Though it may not yet fight. So the president should give jority of organized labor's political post to former Delaware Gov. Pete roll trippingly off the them one, on his terms. money - the money that funds the du Pont, who, rumors say, is mulling tongue, after New Hamp- Second, policy. A four-point Democratic Party would be taken a late entry into the GOP field. If Mr. shire, it doesn't sound nearly as far- agenda would do a great deal to start away. du Pont accepted the offer, the Bush fetched. a fight, and help block the advancing Third, announce that beginning administration would have at least Holding an incumbent president Buchanan brigades: immediately, the president will start staved off another potential problem to just 53 percent of the vote is a Start with indexation of capital using the line-item veto on congres- by keeping him out of the race, and remarkable achievement, and could gains for inflation. The president sional pork, and challenge the Con- could actually gain with conserva- well spell the demise of the Bush docs not need congressional ap- gress to take it to the Supreme Court. tives who admire Mr. du Pont's eco- presidency incumbent presidents proval to do this, and it would have Another signal out of New Hamp- nomic stances. If he chooses to de- are 0-for-4 in general elections after the same stimulative effect as a rate shire was the public's disgust with cline the offer. he then would be THOMAS allowing a challenger more than 35 cut. wasteful federal spending: the hard-pressed to explain a run percent of the New Hampshire pri- Then implement the Beck Su- American electorate would strongly against Mr. Bush. From page F1 mary vote. preme Court decision, which holds support Mr. Bush on this. So what can Mr. Bush do to pre- that unions may not force compul- As for the OMB position, either serve his seat in the Oval Office? sory dues for purposes other than Fourth, make a decision to break Richard Rahn or Paul Craig Roberts better than Mr. Buchanan's, there is Tb re-establish control of the those directly related to union busi- the budget deal. and demand a real would do nicely. Again, the same dy. every reason to believe he will be race, the president must focus on economic growth package. like last namic is in effect: By merely offer- thrown out of office in November by three things: politics, policy and per. year's DeLay-Wallop Economic ing them the position, Mr. Bush sonnel. Growth and Jobs Creation bill. could effectively neutralize them for people weary of big, unresponsive First, politics. The Bush White The Bushoisie have the rest of the campaign. government. Finally, personnel. After New House must go into a political attack taken a hard shot to Hampshire, it is clear someone will Each one of these measures The presidency is not a reward mode - but it is not Mr. Buchanan have to be offered up as a ritual sac. political, policy and personnel - whom they should attack: it is the the solar plexus, but for good behavior. Mr. Bush doesn't rifice. Since the president cannot of. would help shore up Mr. Bush's right liberal Democratic Congress. much can be done to fer up himself by resigning (it would deserve re-election because he has flank. and prevent inside-the- To attack Mr. Buchanan on his make the rest of the re-election cam- Beltway conservatives who so far been endorsed by Ronald Reagan, personality would be seen as desper- regain their senses paign intolerably difficult, and be- have remained neutral in the intra- without whom he would not even ate and mean-spirited: to attack him sides, Mr. Buchanan didn't actually mural party brawl. but who now may on the issues would risk opening up and their nomination. have been vice president. The presi- win the primary), he must do the be considering lending organ- Mr. Bush to a legitimate debate chal- next best thing and fire those who There is no longer izational support to Mr. Buchanan dency is an office through which lenge. After all. if he's willing to en- got him into this mess: Office of from joining the open opposition. people with ideas are supposed to gage Mr. Buchanan rhetorically through television advertisements. any doubt they have Management and Budget Director The Bushoisie have taken a hard lead, securing our present and offer- Richard Darman and Treasury Sec- why shouldn't he be willing to debate shot to the solar plexus. but much ing new hope, achievable goals and, gotten the message. retary Nicholas Brady. in person? can be done to regain their senses yes, a vision for the future. Moreover. the only way Mr. Bush The question now is, Their advice to him to break his and their nomination. There is no could credibly attack Mr. Buchanan "No New Taxes" which, for longer any doubt they have gotten would be from the left: and though what do they intend some reason, he now claims never to the message. there were many signals coming out have made, despite videotape to the The question now is, what do they to do about it? P resident Bush needs the politi- of the New Hampshire results. the contrary and to sign the budget intend to do about it? cal equivalent of a sawdust need to move left is not one of them. trail experience. He must be- In fact. just the opposite is true. (The Bushoisie will be sorely I'M MAKING FOUR READMY come a new person, repenting of his tempted to run against Mr. Bu- chanan in the South by dredging up IT OFFICIAL. MORE WILLIE HORTON past behavior and attitudes, and adopting a completely different Mr. Buchanan's opposition to the YEARS! IS STILL IN style. Persian Gulf war. At all costs, Mr. JALL!.. Bush should avoid this. Exit polling from New Hampshire showed clear- He is up against a prize fighter in ly that the war is no longer a voting Pat Buchanan. If he doesn't fight issue: Just 7 percent of GOP pri- back, he risks becoming an embar- mary voters considered it important rassment to himself and of no use to at all. What Mr. Bush's advisers should his party. be much more concerned with is how to counter Mr. Buchanan's sure- How pitiful that the approval rat- to-come attacks in the South against ing for the hero of Desert Storm has Mr. Bush's cave-in on quotas.) DESERT BETTER WHAT WOULD plummeted in just a year to a point Inslead, Mr. Bush should go after the Congress with a vengeance. STORM! Very YOU LIKE where Mr. Bush is now fighting for He should chuck his March 20 WHAT CAN TOHEAR? his political survival, and that a Con- deadline immediately. After New SAY? gress that once feared his power now Hampshire, Hill Democrats smell doesn't need to return his phone blood in the water anyway. and they calls. won't be in any mood to compromise. Pat Buchanan offered red meat to if they ever were. New Hampshire voters. If George Bush doesn't quickly start doing the Bill Pascoe is a political consul- same, he'll be dead meat come No- tant and a columnist for The Wash- vember. ington Times. CAL THOMAS If Messrs. Darman and Brady The people of New Hampshire, hat was no gentle wake- up call that Pat Bu- Red meat and had truly been loyal to the president, Republicans and Democrats, have T they would not have recommended a shouted their opposition to big gov- chanan gave George policy that traded away the presi- ernment and the higher taxes Bush's White House. It dent's most important pledge in ex- needed to operate it They know that was a blaring smoke change for nothing. Watching their limousine liberals like House alarm. The Bush admin- ted even before the general election a reality check plan fail, they should have had Speaker Thomas Foley, Ways and istration is on fire, and it had better enough integrity to quit. That they Means Committee Chairman Dan respond quickly or it risks being gut- remain in office demonstrates their Rostenkowski (who has proposed in- interest in self-preservation, not creasing the top tax rate to 35 per- in November. preservation of the administration. cent), and Senate Majority Leader Most "experts" say Mr. Buchanan George Mitchell care more about cannot win the Republican nomina- Mr. Bush needs to take immedi- take. He should fire the twin archi- their own pay and perks than jobs for tion. Maybe not, but Mr. Bush can ate, dramatic steps to persuade the tects of that disaster, White House lose the election to the Democrats. If Budget Director Richard Darman Mr. Bush is up average Americans. That's why Paul country that he not only has real Tsongas finished first for the Demo- the administration thinks only of ideas for fighting the Democrats, and Treasury Secretary Nicholas against a prize fighter crats and President Bush was weak- winning the nomination and ignores but that he also no longer intends to Brady. ened by Mr. Buchanan. the larger challenge of developing flee from principles, such as his bud- It is said the president regards in Pat Buchanan. If loyalty as a supreme character qual- If Mr. Bush thinks he can blun' strategies to defeat the Democrats, get compromise that gave us higher it is finished and so is the re- taxes and increased spending. ity. But he should remember that he doesn't fight back, Mr. Buchanan's challenge by con structuring of the Supreme Court. loyalty to ideas is more becoming tinuing to ridicule him as he did, ht The president should immedi- than loyalty to people who have ideas he risks becoming an is in for even bigger trouble. Like perhaps the most important accom- ately acknowledge that the budget him or not. Mr. Buchanan talk: plishment of the Reagan-Bush that don't work, or have no ideas at agreement with Congress was a mis- embarrassment to ideas. And if Mr. Bush doesn't re years. all. himself and of no use spond with specific ideas that are see THOMAS, page F4 Cal Thomas is a nationally syndi- to his party. cated columnist. The Washington Times FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 PHYLLIS SCHLAFLY Course outline for a blackboard empire ducation has emerged as a E federal money flow will drive the less about academic achievement national issue in a very than about attitudes, feelings and ents as Teachers." but which many process. short historical time frame people call the "Teachers as Par- America 2000 also pays lip ser- values - an area where social and That speed in itself is news- ents" program. Americans abso- vice to the principle of parental political biases so easily replace ob- worthy; the U.S. Department of Edu- choice in schools, but that is an illu- jectivity. lutely don't want that kind of Big cation only dates from the Jimmy Brother society sive concept in the official prospec- America 2000 has a concept of Carter administration in the 1970s. What Newsweek Curse tus. Anyway, the U.S. Senate on a "school" that not only includes and Ronald Reagan was elected in of Self-Esteem" is spreading party-line vote removed the school absorbing private schools into its 1980, promising to abolish it. through the public schools a whole choice section from the education system, but also includes expanding Yet now, in 1992. George Bush is lot faster than America 2000 or aca bill, leaving it essentially a Ken the public schools in order to "par- campaigning to be the "Education demic reform of any kind. The folly nedy-Metzenbaum big-spending ent" children through their pre- President." Big money and policy bill. of this fad was best illustrated by the school years, in their after-school changes are implicit in that promise. comic strip kid who told his stuffed There is considerable evidence hours, and to provide non-school ser- The centerpiece of the Bush ad animal pal, "I quit doing homework. that America 2000 advocates really vices. America 2000 wants to trans- ministration's education drive is a Homework is bad for my self- form public schools into baby-sitters concept called "America 2000." esteem. It sends the message that I for pre-kindergarten kids, and into Whatever this means, we can be sure don't know enough. Instead of trying it includes spending more federal America 2000 wants to social service centers to provide to learn, I'm just concentrating on meals, health care (probably includ- taxpayer dollars. liking myself the way 1 am." transform public schools ing the controversial kinds). coun- America 2000 is the catchword to To the question as to how his self- seling and guidance. "restructure" our 110,000 elemen- into baby-sitters With the failure of centralized esteem could be "enhanced by re- tary and secondary schools into a maining an ignoramus," the child re- national system by means of na for pre-kindergarten bureaucracies all over the world, it plies, "Just call me informationally is truly amazing that a Republican tional goals, national standards, na- impaired." Maybe that's the name of kids, and into social administration is trying to drive the tional tests, national teacher certifi- a new "disability" that will entitle education "bus" headlong into a cation, national report cards, new service centers. the kid to job under the Americans vastly more centralized and feder- model national schools, nearly a bil- With Disabilities Act. ally controlled system than our na- lion dollars of additional national tion has ever had. America 2000 is fundamentally funding to conform the schools to the flawed because (A) it doesn't ad- national agenda, national scholar- don't want parents to have a private How else can one read America dress the biggest problem in ships, and national awards and re- school option at all, but instead want 2000's No. One goal: "All children in schools, namely, the failure to teach America will start school ready to wards for those who cooperate. Lip to turn all private schools into public first-grade children to read, (B) it service is paid to local control, but schools. America 2000 seeks confor- learn.' This goal is buttressed by a lot of warm, fuzzy rhetoric about doesn't address the second-biggest the more we study the America 2000 mity to nationally regulated stan- problem in education, the substitu- prospectus, the more we conclude dards and wants to anoint with tax "early intervention strategies" and tion of psychological pap for the ba- dollars only those schools that are "early childhood development." that locally elected school boards "held accountable by a public Will government agents go into sics, and (C) it heads the public will become irrelevant because the school system in the direction of authority." the homes and dictate how preschool tighter monopoly control instead of National tests will inevitably pre- children are raised - and then opening it up to parental choice. scribe a national curriculum. Who snitch on parents who reject the gov. It's time for American parents to Phyllis Schlafly is a nationally will write the tests? Early indica- ernment's "suggestions"? This sort rebel and demand some glasnost and syndicated columnist. tions are that national tests will be of thing is already being experi- perestroika in our taxpayer-fi- mented with under the name "Par- nanced schools. House panel OKs six-month halt to return of Haitians THE ASSOCIATED PRESS debate," one official said. The House Judiciary Committee, Normally, aliens who test positive ignoring a veto threat from the Bush for HIV are not permitted to emi- administration, voted 21-12 yester- grate to the United States. But of. day to impose a six-month mor- ficials said the administration has atorium on returning Haitian boat the option of granting waivers. people to their homeland. The officials said the 230 or so The measure would bar further HIV-positive cases were found repatriations of more than 10,000 among the first 3,440 Haitians who Haitians being detained at the U.S. were tested at Guantanamo. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Democrats on the Judiciary Com- Cuba. It would apply to those de- mittee argued that the State Depart- tained before Feb. 5. ment doesn't have enough informa- The vote to send the bill to the full tion to justify its assertion that House was generally along party Haitians forced to return have not lines. been persecuted by the military re- Meanwhile, U.S. officials are puz- gime that toppled President Jean- zled about how to deal with at least Bertrand Aristide's elected govern- 230 Haitian refugees who may be ment in September. eligible for political asylum in the "If the State Department is United States. They have tested posi- wrong, people are going to die," said tive for the human immunodefiency Rep. Mike Kopetski, Oregon Demo- virus, which causes AIDS. crat. Many of the refugees in this cate- But Republicans argued that the gory have been flown to the United bill would only encourage more Hai- States, but those who tested positive tians to flee their homeland on rick- for HIV during medical tests at ety boats that are intercepted by Guantanamo were left behind. Coast Guard cutters between Haiti U.S. officials, speaking on the con- and Cuba. dition that they not be identified, Rep. Lamar Smith, Texas Repub- said the administration was trying to lican, voicing the Bush administra- decide whether to allow the infected tion's position, said the bill "will send Haitians to pursue their asylum false hope to Haitians who will claims in the United States or at quickly jump on unsafe boats and Guantanamo make the treacherous journey to "There's been a tremendous U.S. shores." The Washington Times FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 INSIDE THE TWAY Close to home Loaded for bear It's not particularly surprising The Bush-Quayle '92 Committee that Senate Majority Leader has filed its latest report with the George Mitchell blasted a Congres- Federal Elections Commission sional Budget Office report on job showing cash on hand of over $8.8 losses that will result from defense million. The campaign took in more cuts. The report, commissioned by than $4 million in January, about Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole, half of it in matching funds. shows that closing the Bath Iron On the administration side, the Works in Mr. Mitchell's home state rumor mill reported yesterday that of Maine would put 11,000 people Bobbie Kilberg, presidential assis- out of work and raise the state's un- tant for public liaison, had been employment by 1.7 percent. The given walking papers after too bulk of support for the cuts comes many disagreements with Chief of from Mr. Mitchell's side of the Staff Sam Skinner. The White aisle. House had no comment, but one Blasting the CBO report in pub- source familiar with the situation lic was Mr. Mitchell's second said it's more likely that "Mrs. Kil- choice. His first choice, according berg's portfolio has been nar- to sources on Capitol Hill, was to rowed." The White House also had kill the report before it reached the no comment on a report that a public. The sources said Mr. Mitch- moderate pro-lifer, Mimi Weyforth ell approached the CBO through Dawson, had been hired to build CO- an intermediary after learning that alitions. the report targeted cuts in his area October Surprise" maven Gary Sick as well as cuts in areas represented was blindsided by Village Voice. Housing crisis by House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt and House Budget Com- The Houstonian Hotel and Con- mittee Chairman Leon Panetta. house of cards has tumbled into a ference Center, where President But the report couldn't be killed heap with an exhaustive expose in Bush maintains a suite as his offi- because it had been commissioned the Village Voice bearing out much cial residence for tax and voting by Mr. Dole. Had it been some no- of what right-wing critics have purposes, has filed for Chapter 11 sey Democrat who wanted to know been saying. bankruptcy protection. Texas the cost in jobs of the defense cuts, The Voice article is particularly Democrats, who have long crit- Mr. Mitchell undoubtedly could noteworthy because it is by Frank icized Mr. Bush's use of the state as have twisted arms. Snepp, a rogue CIA agent. Basi- a tax haven when he hardly ever "The report is an obvious politi- cally, Mr. Snepp documents a con- comes to visit, declared that the cal effort against three Democratic spiracy to mislead former Carter bankruptcy may help Mr. Bush fi- leaders in Congress," Mr. Mitchell aide Gary Sick. "Several members nally understand the economic said. He described the report as an of this group got caught in a U.S. troubles affecting millions of other "unfortunate effort and a waste of Customs sting in 1986, which left Americans. taxpayers' money." them with an incentive to pay back Actually, the filing doesn't shut Mr. Dole feels the report shows the Republicans and George Bush," down the hotel but merely calls for that "the anti-defense forces on Mr. Snepp says. a reorganization of the way it pays Capitol Hill can talk all they want One of the kingpins in the cha- its debts. rade was Richard Brenneke. about scrapping weapons systems, but when you're talking about de- Thanks to a disgruntled girlfriend, Public ceremonies fense cuts you're really talking the Voice was able to examine about 8,000 pages of Mr. Bren- The week beginning on Valen- about cutting jobs and crippling neke's notes, diaries and phone rec- tine's Day would henceforth be communities." But now that the Cold War is ords, not to mention extensive tape known as "National Condom recordings of conversations with Awareness Week" under terms of a over, why waste money on needless military matters? "The world is other "earnest souls and pretend- bill introduced by Rep. Ted Weiss, ers" caught up in the myth-making. New York Dumocrat, who wants still a dangerous place," Mr. Dole Curiously, all the material had the event observed with "appropri- said. previously been offered to Rep. Lee ate ceremonies, educational activ- Hamilton, leader of the House ef- ities and programs designed to Some surprise fort to unearth a "surprise." The increase public awareness regard- The ranks supporting the Octo- material was brushed off with a ing the availability and proper use ber Surprise theory are thinning form letter. of condoms" in the prevention of dramatically. Initially it was the The article refutes Mr. Sick's disease. more conservative critics who were claim that he confirmed his story Addressing the problem of sex- calling it 8 lot of hogwash to sug- through independent sources. Mr. ually transmitted diseases among gest that Ronald Reagan's minions Snepp demonstrates that the young people, Mr. Weiss said that set up a deal with Iran to hold off sources were linked, or manip- "luckily, one simple, painless, inex- release of American hostages until ulated into an unwitting linkage by pensive device can protect our after the 1980 presidential elec- those who fed them information. youth and our future." tions. Then questions began to "Clearly," Mr. Snepp concludes of Right, Ted. It's called a zipper. arise on the left. Now the whole Mr. Sick's claim, "he had it wrong." John Elvin Sullivan defends boss' health care plan plans that would establish the govern- Reduction of administrative waste choice; you limit choice. And managed By Carleton R. Bryant ment as the nation's health insurance and malpractice suits. care has not worked. Premiums for THE WASHINGTON TIMES payer. . Containment of Medicaid and Medi- HMOs have gone up at the same rate as Health Secretary Louis Sullivan yes' "Any way you look at it, nationalized, care cost growth, which would be capped premiums for other health insurance terday defended President Bush's health government-run health care is not the at the rate of inflation plus 2 to 4 percent premiums." care budget proposal from a Democratic American way." Dr. Sullivan said, outlin- annually. onslaught in the House Ways and Means ing the key elements of Mr. Bush's pro- In his questioning period, Rep. Pete posal: "I can't help but disagree totally that Stark, California Democrat, frequently Committee. "We maintain that the president's pro- Expansion of health care access to you have anything in this bill that cuts interrupted Dr. Sullivan as he tried to posal is the only one that won't raise include uninsured lower- and middle- cost said Rep. Marty Russo, Illinois answer, forcing the committee chairman taxes. We don't propose to cut Medi- income Americans by providing tax Democrat. "There's nothing in your bill; to call the hearing to order several times. care," Dr. Sullivan told the lawmakers. credits for health insurance. you thrown away all the major ways we Mr. Stark charged that neither Mr. Encouragement of health care cus- can deal with cost containment. But House Democrats blasted Mr. Bush nor Dr. Sullivan, head of the De- Bush's plan, saying it is inadequately tomers to shop around for inexpensive "This idea of managed care, coordinat- partment of Health and Human Services, funded, contains no cost-saving mea- coverage such as health maintenance ing care; why don't we tell it what it is. had presented a properly worded bill for sures, and will undoubtedly cut into organizations, or HMOs - to reduce It's managed care. It limits choice," Mr. Congress to consider. "Where is your Medicare and Medicaid. They endorsed costs. Russo said. "You say you give greater bill?" he asked. The Washington Times FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1992 Major tests loom for Democratic 5 campaign to match Mr. Clinton's fund- ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) The Demo- raising and organizational strengths. cratic presidential race is entering a crit- Mr. Clinton, for example, has strong ical and crowded three-week stretch that organizations in Georgia and South Caro- will test the organizational muscle of Bill lina, where Mr. Tsongas had but one Clinton and the growth potential of Paul staffer each before New Hampshire. And Mr. Clinton is well organized across the Tsongas. As Mr. Clinton and Mr. Tsongas plotted South. strategy, Sens. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska "If anyone wants to play here, they and Tom Harkin of Iowa had no such better bring a big checkbook," Clinton luxury: South Dakota's primary on Tues- Florida director Jeff Eller said as Mr. day likely will be a make-or-break elec- Clinton spoke at an Orlando rally Wednesday. tion for both. Former California Gov. Jerry Brown is Mr. Tsongas has Little organization to promising to keep his low-budget cam- speak of in Florida, Texas and other Su- paign alive through the Democratic na- per Tuesday states. But he hopes to bring those states into tional convention in July but has yet to prove his candidacy will garner signifi- play by wounding Mr. Clinton a week ear- lier on March 3, when primaries and cau- cant support. The candidates barely had left New cuses are held in Maryland, Minnesota, Washington, Idaho, Utah, Colorado and Hampshire when it became clear the first casualty of the field's new ranking Georgia. Only Georgia among them is considered a near-certain Clinton state. might be the friendship Arkansas Gov. Mr. Tsongas is targeting Maryland, his Clinton and former Massachusetts Sen. Tsongas developed over the past five first post-New Hampshire stop, Wash- ington and perhaps Colorado, in addition months. to South Dakota next week. "I hope the debate can be kept on a high plane," said Mr. Clinton, who pointed Mr. Clinton suggested in an interview to his 11 years as a chief executive and Wednesday that he viewed Colorado as a programs aimed at helping the middle Democratic presidential hopeful Paul Tsongas, a former Massachusetts Baltimore. senator, battleground and appeared intent on class as his strengths against Mr. Tson- shows off his conservative tie during a campaign stop Wednesday in lowering his expectations in Maryland, where he led in pre-New Hampshire gas. Mr. Clinton criticized the former Mas- Clinton favors on grounds of fairness and sachusetts senator for adopting sort of Mr. Clinton said. Mr. Tsongas opposes as the wrong pre- polls. Tweaking Mr. Tsongas, Mr. Clinton air of moral superiority" in insisting only "As you know, we've been good friends," Mr. Tsongas said of Mr. Clinton. scription for the economy. said Maryland should be friendly to Mr. his proposals made any sense. "That will now be tested." The pivotal question to be answered by Tsongas because of "the upper-middle- "There's a lot of difference between It's time to "go head to head on eco- the Super Tuesday block of Southern pri- class people who support his argument putting a planout to the American people maries March 10 will be whether Mr. that the only way you can restore eco- and having a proven ability to galvanize nomics," Mr. Tsongas said Wednesday. Tsongas can turn momentum from his nomic vitality in this country is to weigh people and change people's lives and en- On that terrain, their biggest differ- ence is over the middle-class tax cut Mr. New Hampshire victory into a national down on the middle class a little harder." ergize and challenge people to do things," Candidates beating bushes for funding donations and raised another $200,000 to THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Cash-hungry candidates are being forced $300,000 at three fund-raisers Wednesday to devote extra attention to the presidential night in New York Greek-American commu- money chase as they enter a critical three- nities, aides said. week stretch that will settle delegate contests The one-day haul was more than the in more than half the states. $250,000 Mr. Tsongas netted in the entire President Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton third quarter of last year, when he Lagged at lead the pack in fund-raising as the candi- the bottom of most polls. And it complements dates move beyond New Hampshire, while another $250,000 the campaign reported rais- Patrick Buchanan and Paul Tsongasa cash- ing in the last 10 days of January when his ing in on their strong showings in the first popularity began rising. Mr. Tsongas is also seeing increased sup- primary. But none of the campaigns is flush with port from Greek-Americans, who gave heav- money. They' generally been pinched by the ily to Michael Dukakis' unsuccessful bid in recession, the campaign's slow start and do- 1988 but were reluctant to get behind Mr. nor confusion over a muddled field. Tsongas until he began rising in the polls, "You saw past campaigns come out of New spokeswoman Peggy Connolly said. Hampshire with several million dollars still in "It's finally nice to go to the mailbox," she hand, but there isn't a candidate like that this said. "Five thousand dollars would have been year," said Steve Jarding, a spokesman for Ne- a nice month during the summer. Well now braska Sen. Bob Kerrey. that's just the first half-hour of the day." "This year, everyone is coming out with a But Mr. Tsongas still lags behind most of few hundred thousand dollars and you have to the other Democrats, having raised just $1.06 million all of last year. Mr. Buchanan raised about $2.5 million Mr. Buchanan and Mr. since he entered the GOP race in December, and his campaign reports that donations have Tsongas face a golden accelerated after his strong second-place opportunity in the next two showing in New Hampshire. "The day of the primary was our biggest weeks to exploit their mail day ever. We pulled in about $140,000," said Steve Glynn, Mr. Buchanan's deputy cam- anti-establishment images. paign treasurer. Mr. Bush entered the year having raised about $10 million and added another $1.6 mil- raise a few hundred thousand dollars to get lion in January but he's still substantially be- low the $18.7 million he started with four ahead" Getting ahead will be a top priority for the years ago. campaigns as they enter one of the most ex- "Given the fact of the late start and a tough pensive stretches of the primary season recession, we're pretty pleased with the re- caucuses and primaries are on tap through sults," said Bush campaign spokeswoman March 10. Torie Clark. Roger Craver, a veteran Democratic fund. Mr. Clinton's campaign says it hopes to raiser, said Mr. Buchanan and Mr. Tsongas reach the $7 million mark by the end of Feb- face a golden opportunity in the next two ruary, but that still trails the $10.6 million Mr. weeks to exploit their "maverick anti- Dukakis started with in 1988. establishment" images and boost their cof- Mr. Clinton, the Arkansas governor, has fers with contributions from "thinking per- maintained the Democratic fund-raising lead sons who are tired of business as usual." despite questions of character that dominated Mr. Tsongas' fund-raising was so slow late his campaign in the last month, said his fi- last year that he was forced to borrow money nance director, Rahm Emanuel to make television ads, but his fortunes have Mr. Clinton has raised nearly $2.7 million taken a quick turn for the better with his New since January, and his campaign expects to Hampshire victory. raise another $1 million by the end of this On Wednesday, the former Massachusetts month with a fund-raising tour that includes senator received nearly $100,000 in mailed stops in Florida, Georgia and California. Bush Presidential Library Photocopy February 21 192 move S DA THE OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE PHOTOGRAPH 21 FEB 92 P29226-06 DV Republicans T A The AMA for BUSH! BUSHI A mes ! IIIIIII MOOT B 20% VAL B di and +3 to SINIVER Charleston SouthCarolina