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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 2005-0336-F 2005-0336-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP) Series: Bromley, D. Allan, Files Subseries: General Science Files OA/ID Number: 62043 Folder ID Number: 62043-005 Folder Title: Physical Science: Energy [2 of 2] [1991] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: 0 0 0 0 "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121692 ORIGINATOR: 02 STATUS I DIRECTORATE STATUS FROM: WATKINS, James D.: THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY TO: DR. D.A. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 06/07/91 SUBJECT: A RESPONSE TO DR. BROMLEY'S LETTER OF 05/09/91 WHICH FORWARDED A COPY OF MR. JAMES MCKENZIE'S LETTER OF 04/08/91 REGARDING MOX FUEL. DIRECTORATE STAFF ASSIGNED: ASSIGNED: ACTION STAFF REQUIRED: ACTION: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: STAFF DUE DATE DATE COMPLETED: DATE COMPLETED/DEPT: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley PHYSICAL SCIENCES WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: PHONE: EXT: REMARKS: P-Physica Sciences- OSTP RECEIVED: 06/11/91 FILE: CABINET MEMBER*ENERGY DEPT RECEIVED: 9121692 OF ENERGY The Secretary of Energy Washington, DC 20585 RECEIVED STATES OF June 7, 1991 91 JUN 11 A10: 29 OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR The Honorable D. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President for Science and Technology The White House Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Allan: This is in response to your letter of May 9, 1991, which forwarded a copy of Mr. James M. McKenzie's letter of April 8, 1991, concerning his development of a technique to check the seals of mixed oxide (MOX) fuel for light water reactors (LWRs). Since that development has been very successful, he raises the question of whether the United States should reverse its "no MOX fuel decision." Early in 1981, the Reagan Administration reversed the "no MOX fuel decision," originally made during the Carter Administration, and concluded that the industry could reprocess spent fuel and utilize MOX in the United States as determined by market forces. Subsequent to this change in policy, neither the nuclear industry nor its customers have been willing to proceed with the use of MOX fuel in LWRs. In a comprehensive 1985 study and assessment of the economics of the fuel cycle, the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development concluded that the use of MOX was not economically competitive with ordinary uranium dioxide fuel. Countries such as France and the United Kingdom that are reprocessing can claim reasonable economics for these facilities because the sunk costs, paid for in advance by other countries, are excluded for the most part, leaving only operation, maintenance, and decommissioning as the principal cost elements. Aside from the issue of economics, some countries are reprocessing or purchasing these services because of government policy or national legislation requiring a closing of the fuel cycle. 2 Because of the complexity and unfavorable costs of aqueous reprocessing, many countries, including the United States, are exploring alternatives, such as pyroprocessing, which hold promise to be simpler and more economic and provide potential for improved nuclear waste management and proliferation resistance. In summary, our policy is to permit the use of MOX fuel in the United States and allow free market forces to determine the extent to which such fuel is used commercially while we investigate research and development approaches that could improve the benefits of spent fuel reprocessing. Sincerely, Jim James D. Watkins Admiral, U.S. Navy (Retired) "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121405 FROM: WATKINS, James D.: SECRETARY OF ENERGY TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 05/08/91 SUBJECT: MEMORANDUM FOR DR. BROMLEY REGARDING INFORMATION ON CONGRESSIONALLY DIRECTED PROJECTS ("PORK") AT THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY. ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Phillips Thomas Ratchford Ken Yale Dr. Wong Dr. Henderson WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P- DATE RECEIVED: 5/14 FILE: PHYSICAL SCIENCES- ENERGY * INTERNATIONAL - POLICY 9121405 RIMENT OF ENERGY The Secretary of Energy RECEIVED DC 20585 STATES OF AMERICA May 8, 1991 91 MAY 14 P12: 31 OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE D. ALLAN BROMLEY ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SUBJECT: INFORMATION ON CONGRESSIONALLY DIRECTED PROJECTS ("PORK") AT THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Allan: At our last FCCSET meeting, I promised to send you a list of the congressionally directed projects in DOE's FY 1991 budget. I have attached two papers that delineate the pork that was put in our budget. Attachment I shows the pork that was added and the cuts in the legitimate science projects that we requested in the President's FY 1991 budget proposal. You will see that we lost a total of $143.7 million in good science and gained $141.6 million in pork. Attachment II shows how the congressionally directed funds are to be spent. As you will see, the vast majority are used for "bricks and mortar" projects. As a first step toward a coordinated effort against "pork", I think it would be worthwhile to collect this type of data from all science agencies. Sin Admiral, James D. Watkins U.S. Navy (Retired) Attachments P.S. "Directed Projects = "Pork" ATTACHMENT I DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY FY 1991 CONGRESSIONALLY DIRECTED PROJECTS ANALYSIS (Dollars in millions) FY 1991 FY 1991 REQUEST APPROPRIATION CHANGE Biological and Environmental Research R&D $338.8 $321.7 -17.1 Directed Projects -- 72.2 +72.2 TOTAL: $338.8 $393.9 +55.1 Basic Energy Sciences R&D $648.7 $652.6 +3.9 Directed Projects -- 59.2 +59.2 TOTAL: $648.7 $711.8 +63.1 University and Science Education DOE Program $34.7 $36.4 +1.7 Directed Projects -- 10.2 +10.2 TOTAL: $34.7 $46.6 +11.9 Fusion Energy $325.2 $273.6 * -51.6 Superconducting Super Collider $317.9 $242.9 -75.0 * Excludes $16 million reprogramming Summary: Cuts to R&D -143.7 Adds for Directed Projects +141.6 ATTACHMENT II DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 1991 Congressionally Directed Projects UNIVERSITY AND SCIENCE EDUCATION EPSCoR Planning Grants * $2,000,000 EPSCoR Graduate Traineeships * 2,000,000 Nuclear Engineering; University Nuclear Engineering Programs 5,000,000 Upgrading of University Reactors 1,000,000 Rural Enterprises, Inc. 200,000 Clark Atlanta University; Research Center for Science & Tech. a/.. Total University and Science Education $10,200,000 BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Alabama, University of; Biomedical Research Facility $9,942,000 Case Western Reserve University; Biomedical Research Facility 9,942,000 Childrens Hospital, Detroit, MI; Equip to support demo on Position Electron Tomography 7,953,600 Laser Medical Applications Centers; Est. Cntrs. of Excellence 1,472,659 Louisiana State University; Biomedical Research Institute 12,427,500 Misericordia Hospital, Phila, PA; 6-MEV linear Accl. for Cancer 2,087,820 Oregon Health Sciences University; Neurosurgery Research Institute 12,427,500 South Carolina, Medical University of; Cardiac Research Institute 5,965,200 West Virginia University; Center for Nuclear Medicine in Alzheimers 9,942,000 Total-Biological and Environmental Research $72,160,279 BASIC ENERGY SCIENCE Material Sciences Fort Hayes State University; Physical Science Center $1,988,400 Oklahoma State Univ.; Advance Technology Research Center 4,971,000 Indiana State Univ.; Advanced Technology Center 4,814,414 Univ. Of New Orleans,; Center for Energy Resources Management 9,942,000 Boston College; Energy Sciences Research Facility 9,942,000 Purdue; Hqs. of Midwest Superconductivity Consortium 2,982,600 N. Iowa, University of; Center for Energy & Environmental Educ. 3,976,800 Center of Excellence 4,971,000 Ames: Technical and Admin. Services Facility 2,982,600 West Virginia University; planning of proposed Research Center 248,550 ENGINEERING AND GEOSCIENCES Fort Hayes State University; Physical Science Center $1,988,400 ADVANCED ENERGY PROJECTS Louisiana Tech. University; Manufacturing Systems Engineering Research Center $745,650 Nebraska Univ. of; Nebraska Center for Science & Tech. 5,666,940 Diag. Instr. Anal. Lab., Miss. St. Univ.; Tech Transfer 3,976,800 Total-Basic Energy Science $59,197,154 TOTAL CONGRESSIONALLY DIRECTED PROJECTS: $141,557,433 a/ No amount specified, just language encouraging support * EPSCoR, Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research Programs THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON July 9, 1991 Dear Jim: Many thanks for sending me the detailed breakdown of the "pork" in your Department. I agree totally that it will be important to get equivalent numbers for as many other departments as possible. Only by making very evident what is taking place can we hope to in fact force a more rational distribution of Federal funding. I much appreciate your help in getting this documentation and I am looking forward to meeting with you in the very near future because there are a number of rather important topics that we should discuss. With warmest best wishes, Sincerely yours, Anan D. Allan Bromley The Assistant to the President for Science and Technology The Honorable James D. Watkins Secretary Department of Energy Washington, D.C. 20585 "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121281 FROM: RITTNER, Edmund S. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 04/24/91 SUBJECT: LETTER TO PRESIDENT BUSH CONCERNING AN AUTOMOTIVE ENERGY PLAN. ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: DATE RECEIVED: 04/30/91 FILE: P. PHYSICAL SCIENCES-ENERGY Dr. Edmund S. Rittner Consulting Scientist 700 New Hampshire Ave, NW, #116 Washington, DC 20037 252-955-06500 CLAPR 30 All: 03 April 29, 1991 President George Bush The White House Washington, DC 20500 DIRECTOR Dear Mr. President, exhaust capable air eliminating the need for oil imports as well automobile which is I of am attaching herewith a brief automotive energy plan warming. pollution and the accompanying contribution to as of engine of much higher efficiency and for the non- polluting The plan calls for the introduction of a well-known global require gasolene by a fuel derived from solar energy. The plan replacement does in the biomass any additional monies and it builds upon DOE accomplishments not emphasis in of an automotive application. It also endorses the of the new engine area and upon a successful demonstration for the the National Acadumy of Sciences on conservation recent would be requirement of a 30% increase in auto fuel efficiency, excent engine. unnecessary in view of the much higher efficiency of the which new In short, the plan appears to be just what the nation needs! Sincerely yours, Edmund &. Rittis cc: Vice President Secretary DOE Secretary DOT Science Advisor National Academy of Sciences Chairman, House Energy & Commerce Committee Chairman, Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee Chairman, House Energy Subcommittee Senate majority Leader Senate minority Leader Speaker of the House House Majority Leader House minority Leader Proposed Automotive Energy Plan Edmund S. Rittner The goal of the present plan is to eliminate the need for petroleum imports with their deleterious economic, environmental and potential military impacts; and to eliminate air pollution from automotive exhaust as well as the accompanying contribution to global warming. The plan calls for the replacement of the gasoline powered internal combustion engine by an external combustion engine employ- ing a Stirling cycle and powered by a fuel derived from photo- synthesis and fermentation of agricultural products. The external combustion engine, the thermodynamic basis for which dates back to the early ninetcenth century, has a huge advant- age with respect to pollution because the burning of the fuel is completely separated from the internal working. This permits complete oxidation to carbon dioxide and water and avoids formation of oxides of nitrogen because of the absence of high temperature sparking. Extensive development work has been carried out over a twenty five year period by the N.V. Philips Co. and a published account in 1959 describes a 40 HP experimental engine with an efficiency of 38% at an engine speed of 1500 rom and exhibiting very low noise and vibration. The weight required was 11 1b/HP. Since the efficiency of the internal combustion engine is only 25%, the Stirling cycle engine represents a 50% improvement. A technology transfer to General motors Corporation took place about twenty years ago but did not result in adoption of the engine. Over the past dec- ade DOE has carried out application research on this engine with the specific aim of incorporation into automobiles. The project was a complete success technically but was discontinued because of lack of interest on the part of the automotive industry. The advantages of a fuel derived from solar energy are domestic availability, renewability, energy storage, sufficient energy content (for fuels yet to be discussed) for automotive use when employed with the Stirling cycle engine, and avoidance of contributions to global warming. The last advantage results because in the photosynthesis step carbon dioxide is absorbed from the atmosphere in an amount which compensates exactly for that released later in the fermentation and burning steps. The two most widely practiced industrial processes to produce materials employable as fuels employ grain stocks high in starch content which is converted to glucose. In one of the processes ethanol (ethyl alcohol) is produced by use of one of a variety of fermentation agents (eg, yeast enzymes), a process which has its antecedents in antiquity. In the other process a different class -2- of fermentation agents is used (eg, Bacillus butylicus) and leads to the formation of butyl alcohol and acetone as the principal products in a volumetric ratio of 2:1. This process, which was introduced by Weizmann," has been in wide industrial practice since World War I for the production of acetone. The butyl alcohol is more useful as a fuel than acetone and the latter may be converted by hydrogenation to isopronyl alcohol. The latter is also a better fuel than acetone and can be blended with the butyl alcohol to im- prove the overall fuel yield. A major improvement in energy content can then be achieved by conversion of these alcohols to ethers by means of dehydration (eg, by the use of concentrated sulfuric acid). The quantities of greatest importance for fuel use in external combustion engines are the heat of combustion/cc and the boiling point which is a rough indication of volatility. These quantities are listed in Table 1 for a number of alcohols and ethers as well as acetone. Also included are octane, which is the quintessential comp- onent of gasolene, and the caloric data for several commercially employed mixed blends. Table 1 3) Substance No. C atoms Heat of Combustion, Boiling Point, in chain kcal/cc °C methyl alcohol 1 5.8 54.5 ethyl alcohol 2 9.0 78.5 propyl alcohol 3 10.0 82.0 butyl alcohol 4 10.6 117 amyl alcohol 5 11.0 138 acetone 3 9.3 56.5 ethyl ether 4 12.3 34.6 propyl ether 6 12.8 67.5 butyl ether 8 13.0 142 amyl ether 10 13.1 190 octane 8 16.3 125 gasolene - 15.6 - kerosene - 13.4 - furnace oil I 11.8 - fuel oil - 10.4-12.1 - Note that the heat of combustion/cc increases with the number of carbon atoms in the chain of the molecule, that the ethers are substantially more energetic than the corresponding alcohols, and that probyl and butyl ethers are the best choices amongst the listed alcohols and ethers when combustion heat and boiling point are jointly considered. The blend of ethers resulting from the Weizmann ferment- ation followed by hydrogenation and dehydration would have a heat of combustion of 12.9 kcal/cc. This mixture of ethers will henceforth -3- be referred to as "ether blend". The combustion heat of ether blend exceeds that of ethanol by 43 :, that of furnace oil by 9.36, and is 83 : that of gasolene. It is also of interest to note that butyl ether has a molecular structure identical to that of octane with the add- ition of an oxygen bridge in the center. However, consideration of the yields of the two fermentation processes indicates that production of ethanol would permit better utilization of the agricultural resources. Yield data for the ethanol case are available in a recent publication" for wood and corn. The yield expressed as mass of ethanol produced per mass of dry feedstock is 0.33 for wood and 0.35 for corn. This yield includes the possible conversion losses of cellulose or starch to glucose. The corresponding yield for the Weizmann process as reported* in 1920 is 0.15 - 0.20 for rice, maise or other grains. It turns out that relative to the available resources the ethanol process will produce more total energy than the Weizmann process followed by conversion to the ethers by at least a factor of 1.3. Thus, the opposing tendencies of higher energy content/cc for the ether blend and higher total energy availability from ethanol will call for trade-offs. Reference (4), which represents an important milestone in the DOE Ethanol from Biomass Program (where the fuel is intended for use in conventional engines), provides data on the annual U.S. energy con- sumptionin quad (1 cuad = 10"BTU) during 1989: transportation, 22 quad; total petroleum, 34 quad; total energy, 81 quad. Use of the more eff- icient external combustion engine would reduce the transportation require- ment to 14.5 quad. Reference (4) also concludes that wood is much cheape: than corn at high ethanol production levels where the market for corn cobroducts would be saturated. It then estimates the ethanol production potential for cellulosic feedstocks including agricultural-, forestry- and municipal solid wastes; woody or herbaceous high productivity energy crops (HPEC); and trees produced by conventional forestry. Account is taken of available land including forest land not suitable for growing crops, existing cropland available because of excess agricultural cap- acity, and potential crobland that could become available, of particular interest is the significant potential of the readily available waste materials which could contribute a total of 3.8 quad, one quarter of the modified transportation requirement. The full 14.5 qued will not be required until complete conversion of all automobiles to the new engine, which could take as long as a decade. The total ethanol production potential is expressed in Table 3 of Ref (4) as 12.4 - 25.5 quad. The lower value is based upon current HPEC productivityand 1988 existing cropland, whereas the higher value refers to anticipated HPEC productivity and projected available cropland in the year 2012. Reference (4) conclude that cellulosic materials notentially available from energy crops, wastes and conventional forestry could provide enough ethanol to meet the current transportation requirement and projects a wholesale selling price of $0.60 per gallon (mid-1980 basis) by the year 2000, provided that aggressive R&D is continued. -4- Identical considerations apply to the production of the ether blend as the only changes are substitution of a different agent for fermenting glucose and the addition of the hydrogenation and dehy- dration steps. The price of the ether blend will be higher than that of ethanol because of the additional processing, but more imo- ortantly, because of the lower fermentation yield. R&D with a goal of increasing the latter quantity could prove very valuable because an increased yield would result in both a lower price and an increased energy availability. Table 2 presents a comparison of ethanol and the ether blend as well as two interesting mixtures of the two with respect to heat of combustion/cc, the total energy production potential (with the lower and higher values defined earlier), and the multiplýing factor to obtain expected miles/gallon performance with the Stirling cycle engine. Table 2 Composition of Fuel Heat of Combustion, kcal/cc Energy Potential, Miles/g quad Factor ethanol 9.0 thanol++ether blend 12.4 - 25.5 0.88 3 10.3 11.4 - 24.3 3 lethanol+ rether blend 1.00 11.6 ether blend 10.4 - 22.2 1.13 12.9 9.4 - 20.0 1.26 Ethanol has the advantages of lowest price and highest total - energy production, but would result in a 12! lowering in miles/gal. (Use of pure ethanol in the conventional engine would result in a 25 ! lowering in miles/gal. )4) The ether blend would produce a 256 increase in miles/gal but a dimunition in total energy production relative to ethanol by a factor of 1.32 and would have the highest price of the fuels considered. The fuel consisting of a mixture of gethanol and }ether blend is of particular interest as it offers the prospect of no loss in miles/gal while causing relatively little reduction in total energy production and little increase in cost. The mixture of with that of furnace oil. }ethanol and Bether blend has a caloric content/cc nearly identical Fuel in excess of that required to serve the automotive require- ment could be employed advantageously to replace the high sulfur bil employed in electric utilities, thus reducing the sulfur dioxide emissions leading to acid rain. Such fuel could be stretched consid- erably further by use of conservation measures such as those recently proposed by the National Academy of Sciences. The plan has not yet dealt with the problems associated with use -5- of Liesel engines, which are internal combustion engines particularly useful for large power requirements. Although the exhaust emissions are not being subjected to municipal restriction and inspection, presumably because in the aggregate they are small compared to auto- mobile emissions, this rationale will gradually disappear if the present plan is adopted. Diesel emissions not only offend the senses but contain fine carbon particulates saturated with unburned Diesel fuel which are probably hazardous to respiratory function. Eliminat- ion of, or at least major reductions in, such emissions by use of filters and/or catalytic converters should be possible. Legislation requiring a low level cap on particulate emissions is highly desirable. Replacement of Diesel by Stirling cycle engines in automobiles will solve that facet of the overall problem. R&D to replace Diesel fuel by an alternative derived from solar energy is also desirable and the candidates listed in Table 2 should be tried. A few words are in order to respond in advance to the expected reluctance of the automotive and oil industries to make the necessary adjustments to adoption of the plan. The automotive industry would be relieved of the CAFE standards or equivalent conservation measures presently under consideration, because the desired efficiency improve- ments in the engine have been exceeded in the Stirling cycle engine. moreover, the happy prospect of being able to offer an environmentally clean vehicle powered by fuel derived domestically from solar energy should permit recapture of market share lost previously to foreign competitors. On the other hand, failure to offer such a product in advance of foreign competitors would be courting financial disaster. The oil companies face both a challenge and an opportunity. Because they control the fuel distribution network and are highly skilled in handling fuels and in carrying out chemical and physical processing thereon, they are in a premium position to diversify and to continue to serve the present domestic market. Failure to rise to the challenge will result in debilitating loss of market share. moreover, freedom from criticism and expenses associated with environmentally damaging tanker oil spills should be a welcome advantage. In summary, the goals of the plan, energy independence and elimination of automotive exhaust pollution and accompanying global warming, may indeed be met by use of a combination of the two mature technologies discussed here. Reductions in fuel cost by the DOE Biomass Program can be expected before they are needed on a large scale because of the long life span of modern automobiles. Any short- fall could be made up by temporary use of fuel oil since the Stirling cycle engine can be operated on any combusible fuel. With respect to cost, it should be kent in mind that achievement of fuel costs compet- itive with gasolene really implies a large price reduction because of the greatly added value of the environmentally compatible fuel. Finally, the new plan does not require any new money from the Federal treasury. The added costs, possibly increased engine cost and somewhat higher fuel prices to early users, will be borne by the users and not by the taxpayers. In view of the plethora of advantages surrounding use of the "new" automobile, such price increases will be well tolerated in view of value added. -6- References 1) R.J. Meijer, Philips Technical Review, 20, 245-262, (1958/1959) 2) C. Weizmann, British Patent 4845, (March 1915) C. Weizmann and G.A. Hamlyn, US Patent 1,329,214, (January 1920) 3) Combustion values for pure organic substances taken from: Corresponding values for the blends from: Final products of combustion are CO2(g) and H₂O (1). M.S. Kharasch, Bureau of Standards Journal of Research, 2, 359 (1929) Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, 25 Edition, Chemical Rubber Publishing Co. Cleveland, OH, (1941), D. 1422. 4) L.R. Lynd, J.H. Cushman, R.J. Nichols, and C.E. Wyman Science, 251, 1318-1323 (1991). "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121105 FROM: LEE, T.D.: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 04/12/91 SUBJECT: THE TERAFLOP PROJECT PROPOSAL ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: Enclosure to DAB. P-Physical Sciences- DATE RECEIVED: 04/15/91 FILE: ENERGY 9/21/05 Columbia University in the City of New York RECEIVE I New York, N.Y. 10027 DEPARTMENT OR PAPSICS All: 44 538 West 120th Street OFFICE April 12, 1991 DIRECTOR The Honorable D. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President for Science and Technology Old Executive Office Building 17th and Pennsylvania, NW Washington, D.C. 20506 Dear Allan, It was good to talk with you today. RHIC is very much your baby, and it warms one to see everything going well (even though I was nearly frozen). Enclosed is the Teraflop Project proposal. I greatly appreciate your very strong support and I am looking forward to seeing its fruition under your guidance. Warmest regards, T.D. T.D. Lee "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121123 FROM: GILLELAND, John R.: BECHTEL TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 04/12/91 SUBJECT: THE ITER CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ACTIVITES FINAL REPORT. ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong Dr Ratchford WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P-Physical Sciences DATE RECEIVED: 04/15/91 FILE: ENERGY 9121123 Bechtel RECEIVED 50 Beale Street San Francisco, CA 94105-1895 Mailing address: P.O. Box 193965 San Francisco, CA 94119-3965 91 APR 15 P5: 12 OFFICE 12, 1991 DIRECTOR Hon. D. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President for Science & Technology Old Executive Office Building 17th Street & Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20506 Dear Allan, Enclosed is the "ITER Conceptual Design Activities Final Report". The report is a very short summary endorsed by all four parties. Pages 14 through 19 are therefore worth reading. I will be happy to answer any questions. John John R. Gilleland Vice President, R&D JRG:za Enclosure BECHTEL Overseas Bechtel, Incorporated THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON April 25, 1991 Dear John: Many thanks for sending me the copy of the "ITER Conceptual Design Activities Final Report". This is an impressive document and one of which you can be justly proud. I remain convinced that this is one of our most successful international research and development activities to date and look forward to the succeeding phases. Again, my thanks and with all best wishes, Sincerely yours, Allan D. Allan Bromley The Assistant to the President for Science and Technology Dr. John R. Gilleland Vice President for Research and Development Bechtel Overseas Incorporated P.O. Box 193965 50 Beale Street San Francisco, California 94105-1895 ITER DOCUMENTATION SERIES, No. 16 INTERNATIONAL EXPERIMENTAL ITER CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ACTIVITIES FINAL REPORT INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, VIENNA, 1991 ITER CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ACTIVITIES: FINAL REPORT ITER DOCUMENTATION SERIES, No. 16 ITER CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ACTIVITIES FINAL REPORT PREPARED BY THE ITER COUNCIL INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 1991 ITER CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ACTIVITIES: FINAL REPORT IAEA, VIENNA, 1991 IAEA/ITER/DS/16 Printed by the IAEA in Austria February 1991 FOREWORD Development of nuclear fusion as a practical energy source could provide great benefits. This fact has been widely recognized and fusion research has enjoyed a level of international co-operation unusual in other scientific areas. From its inception, the International Atomic Energy Agency has actively promoted the international exchange of fusion information. In this context, the IAEA responded in 1986 to calls for expansion of international co-operation in fusion energy development expressed at summit meetings of governmental leaders. At the invitation of the Director General there was a series of meetings in Vienna during 1987, at which representatives of the world's four major fusion programmes developed a detailed proposal for a joint venture called International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) Conceptual Design Activities (CDA). The Director General then invited each interested party to co-operate in the CDA in accordance with the Terms of Reference that had been worked out. All four Parties accepted this invitation. The ITER CDA, under the auspices of the IAEA, began in April 1988 and were successfully completed in December 1990. This work included two phases, the definition phase and the design phase. In 1988 the first phase produced a concept with a consistent set of technical characteristics and preliminary plans for co-ordinated R&D in support of ITER. The design phase produced a conceptual design, a description of site requirements, and preliminary construction schedule and cost estimate, as well as an ITER R&D plan. The information produced within the CDA has been made available for the ITER Parties to use either in their own programme or as part of an international collaboration. As part of its support of ITER, the IAEA is pleased to publish the documents that summarize the results of the Conceptual Design Activities. CONTENTS PREFACE 9 1. INTRODUCTION 9 2. ITER OBJECTIVE 10 3. SUBJECT MATTER OF THE CDA 10 4. ORGANIZATION OF THE CDA 10 5. CONCEPT DESCRIPTION 11 6. DESIGN AND R&D ACTIVITIES 14 7. FUTURE R&D NEEDS 14 8. FUTURE ITER PROJECT ACTIVITIES 15 9. SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS FOR A CONSTRUCTION SITE 18 10. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF ITER 18 11. CONCLUSIONS 19 REFERENCES 19 PREFACE This is the Final Report by the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) Council on the ITER Conceptual Design Activities (CDA) which were carried out in 1988-90 jointly by four Parties - the European Atomic Energy Community, Japan, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America - under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 1. INTRODUCTION Thermonuclear fusion is one of the very few options, potentially acceptable from the environmental, safety and economic points of view, to provide energy for a growing world population. The bulk of the research effort takes place in four large fusion programmes which are broadly similar in content, accomplishment and direction and comparable in levels of efforts: in the European Community, in Japan, in the Soviet Union and in the United States. Fusion has now achieved a level of knowledge such that the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion power can be addressed in the next step, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). The history of co-operation on ITER began in 1985 when government leaders in summit meetings called for more substantial international co- operation in order to increase the efficiency and minimize the cost of fusion power development. In response to the summit initiatives, experts from the European Community, Japan, the Soviet Union and the United States, were invited by the Director-General of the IAEA develop a guiding document called the "Terms of Reference Concerning Conceptual Design Activities for an International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor". The Conceptual Design Activities (CDA) began in April 1988 after the four Parties formally accepted the invitation of the Director-General to participate, in accordance with the Terms of Reference, under the auspices of the IAEA [1]. The Terms of Reference of the CDA allowed for the involvement in the contributions of the Parties of other countries which possess specific fusion capabilities. Canada was involved in the CDA through the contribution of the European Community (plus Sweden and Switzerland), while Czechoslovakia took some part in the contribution of the Soviet Union. The CDA were directed and managed by (1) the ITER Council (IC), responsible for the overall direction of the CDA and exercising overall supervision of their execution, and (2) the ITER Management Committee (IMC), responsible for the execution of the CDA. The ITER Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (ISTAC) advised the IC on scientific and technical matters. 9 2. ITER OBJECTIVE The overall programmatic objective of ITER is to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion power. ITER would accomplish this objective by demonstrating controlled ignition and extended burn of deuterium-tritium plasmas, with steady-state as an ultimate goal, by demonstrating technologies essential to a reactor in an integrated system, and by performing integrated testing of the high-heat-flux and nuclear components required to utilize fusion power for practical purposes. The heart of the ITER facility would be a tokamak device, a concept first demonstrated in the Soviet Union and since then brought to a high level of development in the major fusion programmes of the world. 3. SUBJECT MATTER OF THE CDA The Terms of Reference of the CDA called for a quadripartite co- operation aiming at: (a) defining a set of technical characteristics of an ITER and subsequently carrying out the design work necessary to establish its conceptual design; (b) carrying out in a co-ordinated manner specific validating research and development work supportive of the design activities; (c) defining future research and development needs and drawing up schedule, manpower and cost estimates for the realization of such a device; (d) performing a safety and environmental analysis and defining the technical requirements for a construction site of ITER. with the objective of providing, by the end of 1990, a design that is then available for all Parties to use either in their own programme or in an international collaborative programme. Each of these aims was met, as described in the following Sections. 4. ORGANIZATION OF THE CDA In compliance with point (a) of Section 3., the CDA were carried out in two phases: a definition phase performed from April to October 1988 and, subsequently, a design phase, completed in December 1990. As part of the definition phase, a single set of ITER technical characteristics was developed and reported on by the IMC in the two-volume 10 document "ITER Concept Definition" [2]. The report also contained a plan for ITER supporting R&D activities, which were subsequently carried out. As part of the design phase, a conceptual design of the ITER device was developed. All the design work carried out for the implementation of CDA was documented; it was summarized by the IMC in the document "ITER Conceptual Design Report" [3]. Furthermore the Terms of Reference of the CDA state that the ITER Council "will make suggestions on how the Parties may explore ways and means to comply with the objective of the co-operation...". Accordingly and believing that it would be highly desirable to avoid any unnecessary hiatus in the technical work after completion of the CDA at the end of 1990, the ITER Council in 1989 chartered a Working Party to explore these ways and means and to propose those supporting elements needed for the possible conduct of future ITER collaboration. The ITER Council members came to the view that these findings could be helpful in exploratory discussions among the Parties to prepare consolidated common elements for future negotiations. As a result, a summary of the material produced by the Working Party was incorporated into the Council's Status Report [4] and made available to the Parties in April 1990. 5. CONCEPT DEFINITION The ITER design is based on scientific knowledge and extrapolations derived from the operation of dozens of tokamaks over the past decade, and on the technical know-how flowing from the extensive technology R&D programmes of the four Parties. The ITER tokamak is shown in Fig. 1. Its principal parameters are listed in Table 1. The main characteristics and parameters of the ITER tokamak follow from its technical objectives which in turn are in line with the programmatic objective. The detailed technical objectives and the main characteristics of ITER are given in Annex I to the Terms of Reference. Ignition requirements set the value of plasma current. Extended burn favours superconducting coil systems. The design targets for the first wall fluxes and fluence both dictate approximately the same minimum shield thickness in the device. When these are combined with considerations of plasma stability, impurity control and current drive, the general features and approximate size of the ITER reactor are determined. Nevertheless, within the freedom allowed by the technical objectives, the design philosophy has been to control size and minimize cost. Moreover, safety considerations have been an integral part of the design activities. The design was carried out to comply with the technical objectives of ITER laid down in the Terms of Reference and its Annex I. Design policy, 11 TABLE 1. ITER PRINCIPAL PARAMETERS Plasma major radius, R (m) 6.0 Plasma half-width at midplane, a (m) 2.15 Elongation, 95% flux surface 1.98 Toroidal field on axis, B₀ (T) 4.85 Nominal maximum plasma current, Ip (MA) 22 Nominal fusion power, Pᶜ (GW) 1 Pulse length, (s) > 200 0 2 4 6m Fig. 1. Principal Elements of ITER Tokamak 12 JFMAMJJASOND 1988 CONCEPT DEFINITION PHASE Joint Work Concept Definition Report Draft Issued ISTAC Meetings Council Meetings 1989 DESIGN PHASE Joint Work Interim Conceptual Design Draft Issued ISTAC Meetings Council Meetings 1990 DESIGN PHASE Joint Work Final Conceptual Design Draft Issued ISTAC Meetings Council Meetings Fig. 2. Schedule of ITER Conceptual Design Activities 13 aimed at risk reduction, has been to: (1) proceed essentially from the data base derived from the operation of the present generation of Tokamaks; (2) provide the maximum machine performance and physics margin consistent with prudent engineering practices and reasonable costs; (3) build in as much experimental and operational flexibility as practical in a machine of ITER's size; (4) implement physics and technology R&D plans to validate the ITER design concept. 6. DESIGN AND R&D ACTIVITIES As described by the IMC in Ref. [3], the CDA resulted in the joint work of about 40 to 60 professionals for a period of many months each year at a Technical Site provided by the European Community at the Max-Planck- Institut fuer Plasmaphysik in Garching, near Munich. As shown in Fig. 2, there were five months of joint work in 1988, six in 1989 and seven in 1990. Figure 2 also shows meetings of the ITER Council and the ISTAC. Specialists' meetings were held during the period of the joint work sessions in Garching. Also, short-term visits by experts contributed to the activities. Considerable design and analysis support was provided by staff at the Party's home sites. The joint work at the technical site was integrated with regard to the technical work of personnel in the four Parties with a view to resolve each major design issue by forging a consensus among the Parties at the technical level. In compliance with point (b) of Section 3., the conceptual design process has been supplemented by an extensive programme of supporting research and development. As anticipated in the Terms of Reference each Party committed approximately 10 million US dollar of R&D per year. Following the recommendation of the IMC, all of this committed effort was devoted to technology R&D. Furthermore, a substantial programme of physics research was developed and the Parties agreed to contribute this research support in addition to the technology R&D. Overall, the design activity performed during the CDA involved over 100 man years from each Party during the nominal three years of the ITER CDA. 7. FUTURE R&D NEEDS In compliance with point (c) of Section 3., the CDA has defined the R&D work to be conducted in both physics and technology in the various laboratories of the Parties to validate the scientific and technical basis and assumptions for the ITER design. As described by the IMC [3], the physics R&D plan puts particular emphasis on reducing uncertainties in the divertor 14 performance and energy confinement, extending the burn duration with non- inductive current drive and avoiding disruptions. The main categories of the technology R&D activities are a superconducting magnet, plasma-facing components, nuclear blankets and shields, remote maintenance, fuelling systems, and heating and current drive systems. The ITER Council concludes that continued focus on physics R&D, using existing facilities, would minimize uncertainties and increase confidence in the ITER design assumptions. With appropriate additions to the existing technology R&D efforts by the Parties, sufficient prototype and proof-of- principle demonstration and other necessary developments could be carried out to provide a sound basis for decisions to proceed with the construction of ITER, according to the schedule estimates described in the next Section. 8. FUTURE ITER PROJECT ACTIVITIES The ITER Council has concluded that, from a technical point of view, Engineering Design Activities (EDA) preparing the ground for a possible later decision on construction would be the appropriate next stage in ITER activities [4]. Organizational Assumptions In order to develop estimates in compliance with point (c) of Section 3., various organizational assumptions were made in addition to the technical assumptions underlying the design: that the Parties would agree to continue their co-operation through all future ITER project activities, that there would be a Central Team, and that there would be Home Support organizations run by each of the Parties to conduct specific design and R&D, assigned by the Central Team, in home research institutions and industry. All costs have been estimated in January 1989 US$ and are given in round figures. The costs have been derived with the assumption that the Engineering Design Activities start at the beginning of 1991 and would have to be reassessed should there be a significant delay. The following estimates are sensitive to the assumptions and would have to be updated as the technical and organizational issues are further resolved. Project Schedules A possible project schedule for such EDA, as developed on a purely technical basis by the IMC, is given in Fig. 3. Taking practical considerations into account, the ITER Council believes that after a decision to proceed with the EDA, 6 years would be needed to carry out the design and complete the 15 16 Year 1991 1992 1993 I 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 MILESTONE Selection of EDA Site Proposal for Start of Appointment of Director Decision on Construction Approval of Technical Objectives Construction Phase Implementation of Critical R&D and Site V V V Apr DESIGN X 0 R&D X o CONSTRUCTION PHASE * CENTRAL TEAM (Professionals) 30 100 140 180 180 180 Sep Sep 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 KEY: X = Initiate Activity O = Report of Engineering Design = Complete/Approve Fig. 3. Possible Schedule for ITER Engineering Design Activities (developed on purely technical basis) necessary R&D to provide the Parties with well-documented and technically convincing information for making a decision on construction and siting. Following these decisions it has been anticipated that there would be a construction period (about 8 years) and operation in two phases, physics and technology (together lasting about 18 years), concluding with decommissioning. Manpower and Costs During Engineering Design Activities The professional manpower needed to carry out the design activities during the EDA amounts to about 1200 professional man years (pmy). This work would be conducted at a central site by a team whose strength would rise to about 180 professionals, and by the home teams. The cost of this design work including full overhead and support personnel, is estimated to be about $250 million. The R&D in support of the design includes Physics R&D, Basic Technology R&D which constitutes engineering database validation, and Specific Engineering R&D which consists of scalable models and related test facilities. Costs of the physics R&D are not included in ITER costs since they are integral to the world fusion programmes and cannot be separately estimated. The Basic Technology R&D is estimated to cost about $400 million including R&D to provide alternatives or backup options to the primary choices. The Specific Engineering R&D cost is estimated to be about $350 million. The cost of developing DEMO-relevant blanket modules, to be tested on ITER, is not included since this work is assumed to be part of the long- term home R&D programmes. Estimated Manpower and Cost Requirements During Construction, Operation and Decommissioning Activities The professional manpower that would be needed during the Construction Activities has been estimated to be about 2900 pmy, provided primarily at the construction site. The construction cost of ITER has been estimated to be about $4.9 billion. During the construction phase there would be the need for technology R&D (estimated to cost about $300 million). As in the EDA, the cost of physics R&D directly attributable to ITER cannot be separated from the world fusion programmes expenditure. A Central Team of 300 professionals would be needed during the Operation Activities, including physicists and engineers, to operate the machine and supervise the testing programme. 17 The resulting preliminary operating cost estimates amount to about $270 million/year. The cost of the experimental programme which will be carried out on ITER will be in addition to this basic operational cost. Decommissioning costs have not been estimated. 9. SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS FOR A CONSTRUCTION SITE As described by the IMC in Ref. [3], in compliance with point (d) of Section 3. of the present report, a safety and environmental analysis has been conducted and construction site requirements for ITER have been under study during the CDA. The safety and environmental analysis shows that the conceptual design of ITER is consistent with anticipated regulatory dose limits for routine as well as accidental exposure of the public. There remain issues to be addressed by further design and future safety research so as to benefit fully from the potential safety advantages of fusion reactors. Apart from the requirements deriving from safety and environmental considerations, other key requirements for the site of ITER construction would be sufficient electric grid capability, potential for on-site cooling, land area and appropriate access. The ITER construction site would have to be equipped for handling radioactive components and materials. In general, the range of acceptable conditions for the construction site is sufficiently large that all of the Parties appear to have sites available for detailed consideration at the appropriate time. 10. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF ITER In addition to its direct benefits, ITER would produce industrial and technical knowledge for participants. Moreover, full implementation of the ITER project could provide valuable experience for international collaboration in other large high-technology projects for solving some of the world problems, for which the scales are such that solutions must be found through multinational efforts. Some of the problems of large-scale global collaboration, particularly those that involve human factors, have already been met and solved during the ITER Conceptual Design Activities. 18 11. CONCLUSIONS The ITER Council's final conclusions are the following: 1. The Conceptual Design Activities of ITER represent a significant advance in international technical collaboration by the four Parties. 2. The ITER activity has resulted in a self-consistent conceptual design which meets the programmatic and technical objectives formulated in the ITER CDA Terms of Reference. 3. The ITER conceptual design, along with the long-term physics and technology R&D programmes which have been developed, is technically sufficient to proceed to the engineering design, which is the appropriate next stage in ITER collaboration. 4. The critical issues to be addressed during the engineering design have been identified along with approaches for their resolution which would take into account continuing advances in technical knowledge. 5. The ITER collaboration has served to focus the fusion research efforts of the various Parties toward a common goal. 6. ITER will be judged by public opinion not only as a demonstration of the technical feasibility of fusion power, but also as a demonstration of its safety and environmental advantages. It is important that safety and environmental considerations should continue to be a guiding principle in the engineering design. 7. A significant quantity of R&D has already been carried out during the Conceptual Design Activities, and this has been useful in optimizing the conceptual design. It is important to take the necessary steps to maintain the momentum of this unique international co-operation. REFERENCES [1] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Establishment of ITER: Relevant Documents, ITER Documentation Series, No. 1, IAEA, Vienna (1988) 19 [2] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, ITER Concept Definition, Vols. 1 and 2, ITER Documentation Series, No. 3, IAEA, Vienna (1989) [3] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, ITER Conceptual Design Report, ITER Documentation Series, No. 18, IAEA, Vienna (1991) [4] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, ITER Activities Status Report: April 1990, ITER Documentation Series, No. 12, IAEA, Vienna (1990) 91-00339 20 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 1991 "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121036 FROM: LEDERMAN, Leon M.: FERMILAB TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 04/04/91 SUBJECT: INFORMATION ON FERMILAB, ITS STATUS AND ITS FUTURE. ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong KE has seen WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P-Physical Sciences Energy DATE RECEIVED: 04/08/91 FILE: EMERGY 9121036 Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory Fermilab RECEIVED P.O. Box 500 Batavia, Illinois 60510 708-840-3211 FTS 370-3211 Director's Office 91 APR 8 P3: P : 08 OFFICE OF THE April 4, 1991 DIRECTOR The Honorable D. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President for Science & Technology Old Executive Office Building 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Suite 358 Washington, D.C. 20506 Dear Dr. Bromley: I am taking the liberty of enclosing a few items related to Fermilab, its status and its future. I hope you enjoy them. Sincerely, beanch Laden Leon M. Lederman Enclosures 1. Brief for Fermilab 2. The Tevatron (Sci American) 3. Physicists Close in (N.Y. Times 3-19-91) updated 3/18/91 A BRIEF FOR FERMILAB Leon M. Lederman March 13, 1991 Fermilab is now the highest energy accelerator in the world and it will remain at this frontier until the supercolliders, the SSC in Texas and the LHC in Europe's CERN laboratory, come on the air by about the year 2000. Since proton machines traditionally take several years to begin to produce useful data, the hegemony of Fermilab will extend well into the next century. The 25 year history of Fermilab is characterized by exuberance and success. The first phase (1972-82) achieved twice the energy specified in the design with twice the number of beam lines, on schedule and at a cost of $10M less than appropriated. The second phase yielded the successful operation of the world's first superconducting synchrotron, raising the energy from 400 Billion-volts to 900 Billion-volts while reducing energy consumption from 60 megawatts to less than 20 MW. This phase saw the initiation of proton-antiproton colliding beams and the operation of the "CDF" particle detector, probably the most sophisticated system of accelerator and detector art ever achieved. Some 1400 experimenters from 100 U.S. universities and laboratories and institutions in 17 foreign countries have chosen Fermilab for their research facility. The third phase, begun in 1989, involves a dramatic upgrading of the collision rates in order to fully exploit the Laboratory's leading role for the next decade (1991-2001). It is motivated by crises in the progress of our understanding of the nature of fundamental particles (e.g. the top quark) as well as the need to solidify the knowledge base. It is reasonable to expect that the scientific results, the technological advances and the experience of the Fermilab users will all be crucial to the successful exploitation of the SSC. The third phase has the concomitant goal of providing the Laboratory with an important facility for addressing crucial issues in particle physics away from the high energy frontier which will pass to SSC and LHC. In particular, the Main Injector, designed to 2 provide unequalled collision rates for the Fermilab collider, will also provide beams of superb properties for addressing two general categories of problems which are very unlikely to be addressed by SSC. One has to do with intense beams of neutral kaons which will enable studies of the enigma of "CP" symmetry-violating processes (addressed by cosmologists as the "origin of matter" problem) at a level of a hundred times greater sensitivity than is now possible. The other facility is super intense beams of neutrinos to elucidate both the long-standing puzzle of the behavior of neutrinos from the sun and the nature of the gravitational "dark matter" that permeates the universe. Thus, one can easily foresee, a fifteen year period of leadership and productivity for a Laboratory that has achieved a spectacular scientific and technological track record. The history of machines is replete with surprises which could well provide Fermilab with additional scientific missions. The advances to which Fermilab contributes is part of the investment in basic research, the human knowledge resource from which, if history is any guide, the nation will draw upon for decades to come. Fermilab's technology in such diverse areas as superconducting systems, medical accelerators and instrumentation has already paid back a significant part of the investment made here by the Federal Government. The Laboratory has advanced its science while, at the same time, setting new standards in its attention to educational outreach, to ecological concerns with its created wetlands and massive prairie restoration, to unique medical applications, to its world famous architecture and its concern for the blending of science with the visual and performing arts. Surely this absolutely unique institution is a place of pride for the nation. ScienceTimes TUESDAY, MARCH 19, 1991 Physicists Close In on World's Fastest Supercomputer Collision chamber New Approaches Facing daunting calculations on with hundreds To a Mass of Data of thousands subatomic particles, scientists of detectors In the accelerator at the build their own system. Fermi National Laboratory powerful By JOHN MARKOFF streams of particles collide, producing BATAVIA, III. showers of smaller N a workbench here at the Fermi National particles and a vast o 9,5 million collisons Accelerator Laboratory physicists are running amount of data about final tests on a notebook-sized module that will soon become the basic building block of the their trajectories, world's fastest supercomputer. This fall it will begin momentum and mass. aiding theorists in refining their understanding of the Proton beam Anti-proton beam subatomic structure of matter. Known as the Advanced Computer Program Multi- ple Array Processor System, or MAPS, the machine will be composed of an array of 600 thumbnail-sized micro- GATHERING DATA processor chips, each capable of computing hundreds of Each generates Large arrays of high- times faster than a standard desktop computer. over 800,000 speed, specialized Physicists now say they will need to rely on super- pieces of data. sensors are tripped computers like MAPS that are dozens of times more powerful than any now in existence to test a theory that Data filtering when small particles hit predicts the behavior of fundamental particles known as them. These hits quarks. At least five groups of scientists in the United combine to form the States, Italy and Japan are now racing to complete such small particle's track. machines. When the first of these machines, called massively parallel computers, begin to compute an- DATA FILTERING swers, perhaps before the end of the year, scientists hope Farm Farm they will provide the strongest evidence yet to confirm - - STORING DATA or possibly even debunk - the underlying assumptions of Fast electronic filtering modern physics. Farm Farm "Our field of research is now pushing the most systems select the tiny extreme limits in computing," said Dr. John Peoples, the Farm sample that is most director of Fermilab. of Processors useful. This data is Because today's commercial supercomputers lack stored on tape for the speed necessary to perform these immense calcula- tions, physicists have increasingly begun designing their analysis. own special-purpose machines. By wiring together inex- pensive off-the-shelf components, they can create power- ful parallel computers that excel at scientific problems RECONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS by assigning a different processor to each separate Collisions are reconstructed with the aid of computer component of the model. These machines work by breaking problems up into modeling techniques to gain a clearer view of the hundreds of small parts to speed computing. In contrast, particles that were produced. In the next round of conventional business and scientific computers work experiments, physicists hope to find evidence of a sequentially on data. The amount of computing power particle known as the top quark, which would confirm that will be required is daunting. In fact, theoretical physicists here acknowledge that they do not yet com- key theories about the subatomic structure of matter. pletely know how much will be needed to prove -- or The New York Illustration by AI Granberg Physicists Close In On Fastest Computer The machine will be capable of Continued From Page CI performing one trillion floating point operations - mathematical calcula- disprove - their theories. But esti- tions - per second. By comparison, mates of the computing power re- the fastest supercomputers today quired for accurate testing of elemen- reach peak speeds of three billion to tary particle theories at the neces- five billion floating point operations sary level of precision run as high as per second. The teraflop machine is 10,000 Cray hours - more than a year scheduled to be completed in 1993. of computing on the world's fastest "What we're aiming for is a quali- supercomputers. tative improvement in accuracy," "It's become something of a stand- said Dr. Norman H. Christ, a Colum- and joke in the physics community," bia University theoretical physicist. said Dr. Thomas Nash, a physicist "Right now we know we're not in the who heads computation at the nation- regime to achieve sufficient theoreti- ai research laboratory. "These prob- cal accuracy, but with a machine that lems are already soaking up all the is two orders of magnitude faster that free computing cycles on supercom- should change." puters around the country." Moreover, what is true for theoreti- - Today there are five major cal physicists is also true for their projects around the world that have experimental physics colleagues. built specialized supercomputers to Here at Fermilab, researchers now solve basic theoretical physics prob- measure the results from the sub- lems. In addition to the Fermilab atomic proton-antiproton collisions machine, Columbia University and that take place in the Tevatron accel- researchers at I.B.M.'s Yorktown Re- erator in terms of terabytes of data. A search Laboratory, as well as scien- byte is the unit of information that tists in Italy and Japan, have working represents one letter or number in a computer's memory and a terabyte is systems. "We're actually all friends," said equivalent to one trillion letters or Dr. Donald Weingarten, an I.B.M. numbers - roughly equivalent to the information contained in 2,000 multi- volume encylopedias. Experimental physicists here re- As particle quire tremendous computing power to conduct their search for an ele- accelerators improve, mentary particle known as the top quark. Although it remains elusive, computations must evidence of the particle's existence is necessary to confirm the validity of keep pace. the leading theory of the basic struc- ture of matter, known as "the stand- ard model." The big accelerator ring at Fermilab, called the tevatron, is physicist who is in charge of the com- now being refurbished to reach ener- puter maker's GF-11 supercomputer gy levels necessary to yield evidence at Yorktown, which began working on of the heaviest quark's existence. real data earlier this year. "But we "I'm confident we'll find it during all keep close tabs on each other's the next run," said Dr. Alvin Tolles- projects." trup, a Fermilab physicist who has Fermilab is now completing work overseen the design and construction on an upgraded system that will be 10 of the experimental apparatus used times more powerful than its first to capture the streams of high energy generation system, and will likely be particles created by proton-anti-pro- the world's fastest computer when it ton collisions. IS complete. But it may be the world Known as the Collider Detector Fa- leader for only a short period. A con- cility, the four-story instrument sits sortium of 15 universities is now at the coHision point of the Tevatron working with Thinking Machines Inc., ring. Of the hundreds of thousands of a Cambridge, Mass., supercomputer collisions that take place each second, maker to make use of the first so- data from only about 10 are saved, called teraflop supercomputer. each generating 100,000 bytes of in- Probing Forces at Heart of Atom In an effort to describe the strong force that binds the atomic nucleus, physicists are constructing supercomputers to study quarks, the subatomic particles that form the protons and neutrons in the atomic nucleus, and the gluons that hold them together. But the relationships of quarks and gluons are constantly changing and extremely complex. Atom There are believed to be six varieties of quark; gluons are believed to exert Nucleus Proton or eight different kinds of force. neutron Quark Gluon 3-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX FOR STUDYING INTERACTIONS Scientists have constructed a theoretical model of the nucleus in which quarks are represented by "marbles" connected by "sticks" representing gluons. Small sections of the model correspond to processors in a Quark supercomputer under construction at Fermilab. These processors perform the Gluon calculations representing changes in the quark-gluon relationship. Porton of model conforming to processor Source: Fermitab The New York Times formation. Even though the ring runs ysis. only part of the time it generates two Scientists here, who are participat- to three terabytes of data each year. ing in the design of the computing To capture the huge flows of data systems to be used in the future Su- physicists at Fermilab will use what perconducting Supercollider, or SSC, they call "farms" of fast reduced to be built in Texas later this decade, instruction set computer, or RISC, say that the data collection problems processors that gather the output for the new particle accelerator will from hundreds of thousands of detec- be several orders of magnitude great- tors. The experiments conducted at er. the laboratory's Collider Detector The SSC will generate more than Facility rely on a hierarchical set of 100 "events" each second or about ultrafast triggers, detector electron- one million events a year. Each event ics, computers and tape storage will be monitored by a far larger systems. After they acquire the data number of sensors and triggers and from each experiment it is necessary will generate a million bytes of data. to "reconstruct" each event in order Annually physicists expect the SSC to to recognize the events that look most yield 1,000 terabytes a year that will promising. then be reduced by a factor of be- Even after the reduction this still tween 100 and 1,000. yields about 230 billion bytes of data To meet these challenges, re- that must be available for later anal- searchers at Fermilab and other ad- vanced high energy research centers around the world have been forced to go beyond commercially available supercomputers and attempt to de- velop specialized machines to com- pute basic physics problems. Fermilab is now in the final stages of acquiring a new processor farm equivalent to the power of 1,800 Digi- tal Equipment Corporation VAX minicomputers. These systems also function as parallel computers, but less tightly coupled than the MAPS system. MAPS is also being used to test the theory of quantum chromodynamics, or QCD, a theory that attempts to explain the interaction of quarks, which are thought to bind together as the basic constituents of protons, neu- trons and related particles. The term "chromodynamics" is a reference to explore particle physics. Dr. Nash Progress in several argues that researchers in high ener gy physics have long taken the lead in exploiting problems which exhibit disciplines changes what he calls "explicit parallelism." Designing computers to tackle the market for these and similar scientific problems is radically changing the market for computers. ultrafast computers. Until recently the fastest computers have incorpo- rated little or no parallelism. Ma- the whimsical practice by physicists chines such as those made by Cray of labeling different states, or Research Corporation have instead charges, of quarks by three colors: been designed around a single or a red, purple and green, and those of small cluster of extremely fast pro- antiquarks by cyan, yellow and ma- cessors that line up long "vectors" of genta. calculations and then process them A Cornell University physicist, Dr. as quickly as possible: Kenneth G. Wilson, proposed in 1974 But for a problem that models the that QCD theory be formulated as a flow of air over an airplane wing, the three-dimensional lattice, an array behavior of the atmosphere or a lat- that divides space and time into dis- tice of elementary particles, comput- crete points. Such a lattice, physicists ers that are composed of hundreds of say, only approximates actual space- simple processors are increasingly time, but it permits them to make viewed as more powerful. calculations that would not be possi- "It doesn't take long for a scientist ble otherwise. to recognize that a lattice problem Using a mathematical technique obviously corresponds to a grid of known as the Monte Carlo method it processors," said Dr. Nash. is possible to explore QCD theory by The newest MAPS supercomputer making the lattice mesh progressive- is a second-generation machine ly finer until in principle the physical based on development work that Fer- quantities found Our the lattice con- milab researchers have done in the verge on the values that QCD theory past three years. Running since 1989, predicts. The Monte Carlo method is the machine is capable of reaching a mathematical technique that uses peak speeds of five billion mathemat- sequences of random numbers to ical operations per second, or giga- solve problems that might otherwise flops, roughly equivalent to the power prove unsolvable. of today's fastest commercial super- The Monte Carlo technique is also computers. MAPS, built at the cost of appropriate to massively parallel $1 million, is now being upgraded computers, making it an ideal ap- with a new processor board based on proach for the specialized supercom- two Intel i860 microprocessor chips. puters that are now being designed to When it is finished it will be expanded to 300 nodes and be able to reach peak Speeds of 50 gigaflops. MAPS differs from some of the other special-purpose QCD machines in that it is actually a general-pur- pose supercomputer that could be programmed to perform other scien- tific calculations. Fermilab physi- cists have designed their own parallel programming language, known as Canopy, that could be used for a vari- ety of scientific calculations. But Dr. Nash said that so far MAPS work has focused only on theoretical physics problems. Brute force number-crunching, with computers capable of ever greater number of cycles per second, is the key to testing QCD, one of the intellectual triumphs of modern phys- ics. "QCD is a very simple theory," said Dr. Christ. "The system is very simple, it's just a question of getting the cycles." THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, MARCH 19, 1991 B3 TECHNOLOGY Digital Equipment Says It Will Enter Digital also unveiled as expected a line of "fault-tolerant" computers-machines designed to keep crunching numbers even Market for Massively Parallel Computers if a part fails. They are used in banking and other applications where a computer failure would be seriously disruptive. By JOHN R. WILKE chines from broad commercial use and While some of the details of the an- Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL that Digital would concentrate more on nouncement had been reported, Digital A Digital Equipment Corp. executive solving those problems than on any partic- said Digital would enter the fast-growing still managed to surprise some analysts ular machine design. "The hardware actu- market for massively parallel computers with the aggressive pricing of an ally is the easy part," he said. within a year. entry-level model at just $46,000. Larger None of the major computer makers Robert M. Glorioso, vice president, said models range in price to as high as $1 mil- has a significant presence yet in the mas- "Digital is working on massively parallel lion fully configured. sively parallel field. Smaller companies, computer architectures" that would proba- however, have found it an increasingly hot bly be aimed initially at scientific and field, led by closely held Thinking Ma- technical markets. He said Digital engi- chines. Sales of the Cambridge, Mass., neers have conducted extensive research company doubled to an estimated $60 mil- over the years in massively parallel com- lion last year. puter design, in which scores or even hun- After a late start, Japanese companies dreds of smaller processors are tied to- also are investing heavily in massively gether to function as one computer. parallel technologies. And while commer- "It's time to test this technology to see cial applications have been slow to de- where it can really play," he said in an in- velop, some companies-including Dow terview. Despite a slow start in commer- Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street cial markets, "the whole industry is look- Journal-have used it to perform fast ing at it more closely now." Indeed, massively parallel designs are searches of huge electronic text libraries, increasingly overtaking conventional ma- or of consumer marketing databases. Sci- chines in raw power. In a closely watched entific and engineering uses also are prolif- independent test disclosed yesterday by erating. Mr. Glorioso's comments left the door University of Tennesee researcher Jack Dongarra, a parallel computer by Thinking open for a number of differing approaches Machines Corp. was declared the world's to the emerging market, including the pos- fastest. In a widely accepted benchmark, sibility of a joint venture. Indeed, Digital the machine hit 5.2 gigaflops, or billion insiders hint the company's first move floating-point operations per second. A could be a joint effort with MasPar Com- Japanese-built computer by Fujitsu Ltd. puter Corp. The Sunnyvale, Calif., com- took second place. pany is headed by a former Digital engi- Mr. Glorioso wouldn't be more specific neer who worked on massively parallel de- about the Maynard, Mass.-based com- signs within Digital before departing for pany's intentions. suggesting only that it California in 1987. Digital also has done would involve what he called a "systems some joint marketing with Thinking Ma- approach" rather than a single product. chines, mostly in research markets. He added that software has long been a Jeffrey Kalb, the former Digital engi- barrier preventing massively parallel ma- neer who is now MasPar's president, wouldn't discuss what form any expanded relationship with Digital might take execpt to say that "we continue to talk about ways to work more closely together." A Thinking Machines spokesman said the company continues to work with Digital on some joint sales. return please. for files Thanks 9121034 an Article from SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN COPYRIGHT © 1991 BY SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MARCH, 1991 VOL. 264 NO. 3 WE'VE ARRANGED A SMALL CELEBRATION IN HONOR OF YOUR VISIT. 1 Throughout India in 1991, the traditional YES! I'm interested in planning a visit to India. I "lamp of welcome" will be lighting India's Please send me the FREE "Visit India Year" Kit. gateway to the '90s and welcoming a new Name VISIT INDIA decade of tourism. The 12-month celebra- TOURISM YEAR 1991 tion will be taking place all across India- Address in festivals ablaze with color, pageantry, ritual and custom. City State Zip With one-of-a-kind cultural fairs and events, music, dance and sumptuous native cuisines. See India in all its splen- Mail To: Government of India Tourist Office c/o Drawer S dor and feel the special spirit of welcome that burns Bellport, NY 11713-0519 brightly in every home and every heart within India. India Or call: In New York, (212) 586-4901. See India this year. In Los Angeles, (213) 380-8855. AIR-INDIA SA391 The Tevatron Because it produces antiprotons, accelerates them in a ring using superconducting magnets and smashes them into protons, it is now the world's most powerful source of data on elementary particles by Leon M. Lederman O n July 3, 1983, my colleagues master the technology of supercon- poured in from many institutions, in- and I at Fermi National Acceler- ducting magnets in accelerators, and cluding, in particular, the U.S. Depart- ator Laboratory (Fermilab) near it marked the beginning of an era in ment of Energy (DOE), which had allo- Chicago started the countdown for the the physics of matter, energy, space cated the funding. inaugural run of the world's first su- and time. The new "atom smasher" During the past eight years, Fermilab perconducting synchrotron, the Teva- was heralded in newspapers across the has taken many steps to ensure that the tron. It would send a trillion protons U.S. and was praised in messages that Tevatron will remain a preeminent fa- on a speed-of-light journey, ending in a collision unlike any that has occurred since very shortly after the birth of the universe. The Tevatron would also 8 7 launch physicists on an unrivaled ad- venture in understanding the nature of matter and the discipline of building and operating colossal accelerators. To begin the test, we activated the Main Ring, Fermilab's older synchro- tron, to energize the positively charged 1 protons to a mere 120 billion electron volts (GeV). In a nerve-racking instant the protons were injected into the Teva- tron, where more than 1,000 supercon- ducting magnets literally took charge. The magnets efficiently produced a 1. COCKCROFT-WALTON AND powerful field to guide the protons 2 LINEAR ACCELERATORS ISOLATE around a 6.3-kilometer circular path AND PROPEL PROTONS TO no more than a few millimeters wide. HIGH ENERGIES In the control room, technicians su- 2. A SYNCHROTRON CALLED THE pervised the computer program that BOOSTER ACCELERATES PROTONS, ramped the magnets up in precise syn- TO 8 GEV chrony with the increasing energy of 3. MAIN RING ACCELERATES the protons: 200, 300, 400 GeV. When PARTICLES TO 150 GEV the magnetic field reached test-level strength, the protons were smashed into a target at a world record 512 GeV. The feat capped a 10-year effort to LEON M. LEDERMAN is former direc- tor of the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) and holds the Frank E. Sulzberger Professorship at the University of Chicago. In 1951 he re- ceived his Ph.D. from Columbia Univer- sity. He managed Columbia's Nevis Lab- oratories from 1962 until 1979, when he 5 4 took up his post at Fermilab. He shared the 1988 Nobel Prize in Physics for the discovery of the muon neutrino. He is one of the founders of the Academy for Mathematics and Science Teachers, an institution for improving education in kindergarten through 12th grade. TEVATRON, the world's most powerful particle accelerator, propels protons (blue arrows) and antiprotons (red arrows) to 900 billion electron volts (GeV) and col- 48 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 cility for particle physics. Fermilab has improved the superconducting mag- net system, developed an antiproton source and constructed a particle de- tector. The Tevatron can now collide 900-GeV protons with 900-GeV anti- protons to generate an unmatched 1.8 trillion electron volts (TeV). With each burst of energy, the Teva- tron creates a host of exotic particles, producing data of unprecedented qual- ity. The Tevatron has confirmed many predictions of the Standard Model, the central theory of elementary particles. It has also allowed investigators to ex- plore a domain where "no human eye- ball has ever set foot," according to a student with a penchant for mixing metaphors. The Standard Model proposes that matter is composed of six kinds of quarks and six leptons, and so far all these particles have appeared in ex- 3 4. TARGET STRUCK BY 7. COLLIDER DETECTOR AT HIGH-ENERGY PROTONS FERMILAB (CDF) MEASURES PRODUCES ANTIPROTONS THE TRAJECTORIES AND ENERGIES OF PARTICLES 5. DEBUNCHER AND ACCUMULATOR PRODUCED IN THE COLLISION RINGS COOL AND STORE BETWEEN PROTONS AND ANTIPROTONS ANTIPROTONS 6. TEVATRON RING ACCELERATES 8. PROTONS CAN BE EXTRACTED PROTONS AND ANTIPROTONS FROM THE TEVATRON FOR TO 900 GEV FIXED-TARGET EXPERIMENTS 6 lides them at an energy of 1,800 GeV. The resulting debris ics. Lessons learned from building the machine will help has been analyzed to help secure the foundations of phys- guide the development of the Superconducting Supercollider. SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 49 periments except for the sixth quark, liders sacrifice a high collision rate for power consumption, while its electrici- known as top. As the Tevatron evolves greater energies. ty costs increased sixfold.) Because su- during the next five years, it will gen- During the 1970s, the two proton perconducting components do not re- erate, by most physicists' reckoning, synchrotrons-the Super Proton Syn- sist the flow of electricity at all, a su- enough collisions to produce the top chrotron at CERN and the Main Ring perconducting magnet system would quark. If it does not emerge, the Stan- at Fermilab-were competing fiercely. consume considerably less power than dard Model will face a major crisis. Both laboratories were pushed to im- a conventional one would. How best The elusiveness of the top quark is prove their machines to study the Stan- to use the new technology was not at connected to the most seminal issues dard Model and the fundamental inter- all clear. I therefore consulted with an confronting particle physics. Why do actions of nature-the weak, electro- outside group of accelerator geniuses all quarks and leptons have different magnetic and strong forces. dubbed the three wise men: Boyce D. masses? Does an undiscovered force of In 1977 CERN went all out to convert McDaniel of Cornell University, Burton nature bestow mass on a particle? Are its machine from a proton synchrotron Richter of Stanford University and Mat- quarks and leptons composed of even to a proton-antiproton collider because thew Sands of the University of Califor- smaller particles? What do the interac- it sought to confirm or refute the exis- nia at Santa Cruz. tions between quarks and leptons sug- tence of the so-called intermediate vec- gest about the high-energy environ- tor bosons (the W+, W⁻ and Z⁰). These O n November 11, 1978, I held a ment of the early universe? Theorists massive particles are responsible for staff meeting to discuss the have devised many explanations, which the weak force. From 1977 to 1981 long-range plans of the labora- have exotic names such as supersym- CERN developed a device that collected tory. It was Armistice Day, an appropri- metry, technicolor, constituent models and stored antiprotons. The device then ate time to call a truce among several and superstrings. The Tevatron seeks squeezed the antiprotons into small groups who had opposing ideas about to illuminate the speculative jungle. bunches using a technique called sto- how to use the superconductor tech- chastic cooling. The antiprotons were nology. After 18 continuous hours of T he Tevatron program began more then injected into the CERN Super Pro- passionate debate, a clear consensus than 15 years ago in anticipa- ton Synchrotron, where they eventually emerged-at least it seemed clear to tion of the needs of the particle smashed head-on into protons. me and my advisers. We came up with physicist today. During the 1970s, ele- In 1983 and 1984 CERN discovered two major initiatives. First, we would mentary particle physics progressed as the W and Z particles. For this accom- build an accelerator based on a super- two kinds of accelerators propelled plishment, Carlo Rubbia, the leader of conducting magnet system and install particles to ever higher energies. Syn- one of the experimental groups, and Si- it in the 6.3-kilometer tunnel occupied chrotrons at Fermilab and the European mon van der Meer, the inventor of sto- by the Main Ring. This machine would laboratory for particle physics (CERN) chastic cooling, won the 1984 Nobel smash protons into fixed targets as be- near Geneva smashed protons into Prize [see "The Search for Intermediate fore but at an energy level more than fixed targets, and accelerators at Stan- Vector Bosons," by David B. Cline, Car- two times higher. Second, like CERN, we ford University, Cornell University and lo Rubbia and Simon van der Meer; SCI- would construct an intense source of the Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron ENTIFIC AMERICAN, March 1982]. antiprotons, inject them into the accel- (DESY) in Hamburg collided electrons Fermilab chose a different route to erator and collide them with protons. with their antimatter twins, positrons. advance the field of high-energy phys- The goal was to accelerate protons Although the proton synchrotrons ics. The increasing power of the Super and antiprotons to 1 TeV and produce could accelerate particles to much high- Proton Synchrotron was a major con- about 50,000 collisions per second at a er energies than the electron-positron cern to Robert R. Wilson, Fermilab's vi- total energy of 2 TeV. colliders, they were in the final analysis sionary first director. He realized that From 1979 to 1987 the program was no more powerful than the colliders. if Fermilab could develop a super- implemented as envisioned in the 1978 When a proton boosted to, say, 1,000 conducting magnet system, it could plan, at a cost of about $250 million. GeV is smashed into a target, most ultimately build an accelerator more The DOE supervised and funded the of its energy is expended to acceler- powerful than CERN'S. The proposed program, but not without Sturm und ate the particles produced in the colli- Fermilab machine could boost charged Drang. The saving grace was Andrew E. sions. Only 42 GeV is available to pro- particles to higher energies because Mravca, a DOE official who believed in duce new particles. Here the colliders superconducting magnets can produce the program and knew how to negoti- have an advantage. When particles col- a much stronger field than can con- ate skillfully with a bureaucracy. lide head-on, their combined energy is ventional systems. In 1973, therefore, The story of the Tevatron is a very available for creating particles or ex- Wilson started a program to develop human one, dominated by a collection ploring a new energy regime. Hence, a superconducting magnets for a new of heroic figures. Physicists, profes- 1,000-GeV proton that smashes head- accelerator. Later Alvin V. Tollestrup, sional engineers and a corps of gifted on with a 1,000-GeV antiproton releas- who came to Fermilab in 1975 from amateurs devoted themselves to mak- es 2,000 GeV. the California Institute of Technology, ing the Tevatron the world's most The power of an accelerator is not became the intellectual leader in devel- powerful accelerator. If a single factor measured by its energy alone, however. oping these magnets. accounts for the success of this enter- An accelerator must generate enough As director-designate of Fermilab in prise, it was the happy juxtaposition of high-energy collisions to produce sta- the fall of 1978, I reviewed various physicists and engineers. tistically significant results. Collision proposals to build an accelerator that When Fermilab set out to design the rates are generally lower for colliders would use superconducting magnets. Tevatron in 1979, we knew it would than for fixed-target machines because We concluded that such magnets not be significantly more complex than particles in a diffuse beam are much only could sustain a more powerful ac- any previous accelerator. The Tevatron more likely to collide with a dense, celerator but could also reduce con- would require a huge cryogenic system fixed target than with particles from sumption of electricity. (From 1972 to to cool the magnets below the temper- another diffuse beam. Overall, the col- 1978 Fermilab had nearly doubled its ature at which they become supercon- 50 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 ductors. It would need an intricate vac- uum system to provide both thermal insulation and a clear space in which to accelerate particles. It would demand an elaborate safety network to protect the apparatus and workers from the energy stored in the particle beams and the magnet system. It would in- volve high-speed computers to moni- tor and control such parameters as the temperature, pressure, field strength, CABLE TRAY radiation level and beam position. Fi- nally, the Tevatron would entail sophis- COOLING ticated particle detectors to measure WATER the energies and trajectories of parti- PIPE cles formed in collisions between pro- tons and antiprotons. Each of these sys- POWER BUS MAIN RING tems took years to design and build. MAGNET SYSTEM J. Richie Orr was in charge of the Tevatron project. Helen T. Edwards be- CENTER came Orr's deputy and technical man- OF RING PARTICLES ager. Machine guru Thomas L. Collins was principal designer of the accelera- tor system. Tollestrup and Wilson, with help from Richard A. Lundy, were re- MAGNET SUPPORT sponsible for the assembly line to pro- SYSTEM duce, test and modify magnets. The superconducting accelerator SUPERCONDUCTING MAGNET SYSTEM magnets posed major technical chal- lenges. The magnets must confine par- PARTICLES ticles within a one-centimeter region in the center of the vacuum tube as HELIUM COLLECTION PIPE they steer the particles around a 6.3- kilometer orbit, 50,000 times a second. NITROGEN COLLECTION PIPE The accelerator magnets generate a POWER CONDUIT field as electric currents flow through superconducting wires. The quality of the field depends on the precision with which the superconducting wires are placed around the vacuum tube. To guide particles, the magnets have VACUUM SHELL to generate a nearly perfect dipole field-one described by a north pole LIQUID NITROGEN above the orbit and a south pole below. o PIPE Because it is practically impossible to do so, such magnets as quadrupoles INSULATING and octopoles were needed to correct VACUUM PIPE for errors in the dipole field. Accomplishing this task presents several formidable engineering prob- LIQUID HELIUM PIPE lems. Huge forces push on the wires when they carry the electric currents that create the required magnetic field. The stainless steel clamps that hold the wires must withstand tons of force without yielding more than a thou- sandth of a centimeter over the 6.4-me- ter length of each dipole magnet. Perhaps the most obstinate problem occurs during the acceleration of parti- cles, when the currents change rapidly STAINLESS and increase to 4,000 amperes in about STEEL 30 seconds. Changing fields tend to COLLAR MAGNET COIL BEAM TUBE shake and twist wires, creating friction FERMILAB TUNNEL (top) houses the Main Ring and the superconducting magnet sys- and heat, which are anathema to the tem that makes up the Tevatron. The tunnel is 3.0 meters wide and 2.4 meters high. superconducting state. The solution to In 1982 the Tevatron was installed underneath the Main Ring. One of the Tevatron's these problems evolved over a decade dipole magnets appears in the cross section at the bottom. Liquid helium and ni- of research in laboratories around the trogen cool the magnet system. They are then collected as gases and recycled. SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 51 world, but Fermilab's physicists and to about 1,000 sticks of dynamite. Sec- Tollestrup and Roy F. Schwitters of engineers were the first to achieve suc- ond, the beam accelerated by the Teva- Harvard University supervised the de- cess in the period from 1973 to 1979. tron to 1 TeV is equivalent to more velopment of the Collider Detector at Fabrication of the superconducting than 10 million joules, enough to drill a Fermilab (CDF) until 1988, when Schwit- wire was still an exotic technology in hole through the surrounding magnet. ters left to direct the Superconducting 1979. The alloy of niobium and titani- Third, the magnets require 25,000 li- Supercollider Laboratory in Dallas and um, after elaborate metallurgical treat- ters of liquid helium, which could rap- was replaced by Melvyn J. Shochet of ment, was packed into hollow copper idly expand to 50 million liters of gas, the University of Chicago. More than tubes. A set of 2,000 rods was then enough to fill a blimp as long as a foot- 200 scientists-including workers from bundled together in a copper shell 250 ball field and five stories high. Each of 10 universities, national laboratories millimeters wide. The assembly was these energy sources raises a host of and institutions in Japan and Italy- heated in an oven, extruded through a terrifying engineering problems. helped to build the detector. press and drawn through dies to make For instance, if a tiny fraction of the CDF could be characterized as a strands 0.6 millimeter in diameter and particle beam hit several superconduct- 5,000-ton Swiss watch. It represents a 50 kilometers long. The niobium-titani- ing wires, the particles could heat the state-of-the-art device for examining um rods became fine filaments 10 mi- wires enough to cause them to cease more than 100,000 collisions per sec- crons in diameter separated from one superconducting, a process known as ond. The energies of the resulting par- another by a sheath of copper, which quenching. The wires would then resist ticles are measured by numerous heat acts as an insulator at superconducting the flow of electricity, dissipate power sensors; the particles' trajectories are temperatures (below five kelvins). When and consequently heat themselves and recorded by a wire mesh that carries 23 strands are woven together to form adjacent wires to even higher tem- the electric pulses produced when a cable, they can carry 5,000 amperes peratures. Hence, the enormous energy charged particles pass nearby. For each at superconducting temperatures. stored in the magnetic field could be of the 30 or more particles produced in A mass-production assembly line for released, heating the helium and ex- a typical collision, CDF produces more the superconducting magnets was su- panding it in pipes at explosive rates. than 10,000 bits of information about pervised by Lundy. His group built To protect against such a disaster, Fer- its trajectory and energy. In more than about 100 small models and several milab designed an automatic shutdown 100 billion collisions it examined, CDF hundred prototypes before they could procedure, which would in rapid se- selected for detailed analysis about five get the magnets to perform satisfac- quence extract the beam from the ma- million events that were of "more than torily. They then fabricated about 900 chine, drain the currents from the mag- routine interest." dipoles, 250 quadrupoles and hundreds nets and vent the evaporating helium The Tevatron, the antiproton source of other types of magnets used to cor- into a large pipe. and CDF were baptized in a series of rect imperfections in the fields of the In June of 1982 Fermilab suspended experiments that began in January of dipoles and quadrupoles. The total in- operation of the Main Ring, and Peter J. 1987. These systems required the most cluded a reasonable number of spares Limon, C. Thornton Murphy and Lau- sophisticated choreography of acceler- to replace magnets that might fail in rence D. Sauer began supervising the ator rings ever attempted. The proce- operation. orchestrated chaos involved in assem- dure for accelerating particles in the In 1980 Fermilab built a large facility bling the Tevatron. At the peak of ac- Tevatron is reminiscent of a NASA to test each magnet for mechanical, tivity, some 200 technicians, welders, launch. Control room technicians re- cryogenic and magnetic properties. The electricians, engineers and physicists view an elaborate checklist before they vital statistics of each magnet were occupied the tunnel. All the resources initiate the process that ends in pro- logged into a computer program that of Fermilab were focused on fabricat- ton-antiproton collisions. later served to advise where in the ring ing the 1,200 superconducting devices In the first step, negative hydrogen the magnet should be placed to cancel as well as the associated power sup- ions composed of two electrons and residual field errors. plies, utility components, refrigerators one proton are released in a device and cryogenic connections. called a Cockcroft-Walton accelerator, O provide enough coolant for all After workers assembled all the T which produces an electromagnetic the superconducting magnets, parts, made all the connections and field to propel the ions to an energy of physicist William B. Fowler and sealed all the leaks, they cooled the 750,000 electron volts. The ions then engineer Claus H. Rode directed the magnets to an operating temperature enter a 150-meter-long linear accelera- construction of the cryogenic system. of 4.7 kelvins. In June of 1983 Fermi- tor. By inducing an oscillating electric A major component was a liquid-he- lab injected the first bunch of protons field between a series of electrodes, the lium plant that for a time was the from the Main Ring into the Tevatron. linear accelerator boosts ions to an en- world's largest. The facility can now ergy of 200 million electron volts. The produce simultaneously 4,500 liters of A the Tevatron began demonstrat- ions then pass through a carbon foil, liquid helium per hour and a compara- ing its power, Fermilab focused extracting the protons from the ions. ble amount of liquid nitrogen. Liquid its attention on the antiproton In the second step, the protons are nitrogen had previously been delivered source and the detector for the proton- guided into the Booster, a synchrotron by commercial trailers, one arriving ev- antiproton collider. John Peoples, Jr., 500 meters in circumference, where ery four hours. managed the antiproton source proj- the energy is raised to 8 GeV. The pro- In addition to meeting the specifica- ect along with his systems chiefs, John tons are then injected into the Main tions of the Tevatron, designers of the D. McCarthy, Gerald Dugan, Stephen Ring. Here more than 1,000 conven- magnet and cryogenic systems devised Holmes and Ernest Malamud. Their am- tional, copper-coiled magnets continu- safety measures to manage three awe- bitious goal was to build a facility that ously guide and accelerate protons. some sources of stored energy that would produce, collect and store at least In the third step, protons are focused could destroy the machine. First, the 10 billion antiprotons per hour SO that into short bunches at 120 GeV. They Tevatron's magnets store as much as the antiprotons could be injected into are then extracted from the Main Ring 400 million joules of energy, equivalent the accelerator in a series of bunches. and strike a copper target, producing 52 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 COLLIDER DETECTOR AT FERMILAB records more than cle beams so that collisions take place in the detector's cen- 100,000 proton-antiproton collisions per second. The 5,000- ter. The arches pushed to the side for maintenance are part ton apparatus slides into alignment with the Tevatron's parti- of the calorimeter, which measures the energies of particles. antiprotons. About 20 million antipro- tons, the Debuncher uses two cooling contains some 200 billion antiprotons, tons can be collected from each pulse. processes. The first, called debunching, enough for a "shot" to the Main Ring. The antiprotons are then focused by a is a Fermilab innovation. As a bunch of lithium lens-a cylinder of liquid lithi- antiprotons circulates around the ring, um that transforms a current pulse of a complex, computer-coded radiofre- M eanwhile, during the fourth and fifth steps, the Main Ring 600,000 amperes into a focusing mag- quency voltage speeds up slower parti- accelerates 500 billion protons netic field. cles and slows down faster ones, there- to 150 GeV. The protons are then In the fourth step, the lithium lens by decreasing the energy distribution transferred to the Tevatron ring where directs the antiprotons to the first an- of the stored beam. The other process, they await the antiprotons. tiproton storage ring, known as the De- stochastic cooling, decreases the side- In the sixth step, a portion of the buncher, which is about 520 meters in ways motion of antiprotons. In this stored antiproton beam is transferred circumference. The Debuncher is de- method, particles whose orbits are far to the Main Ring. The antiprotons are signed to squeeze the antiprotons into from ideal are identified by sensors, boosted to 150 GeV in the Main Ring as compact a "space" as possible. One which then send correction signals to and then injected into the Tevatron can begin to understand how the De- kicker electrodes that adjust the paths ring where protons have patiently been buncher works if one can imagine sit- of the errant particles. circulating. Because the protons are ting on an antiproton in the middle of After the Debuncher squeezes the positively charged and the antiprotons a bunch. From this interesting but pre- beam in energy and size, the fifth step are negatively charged, the protons cir- carious vantage point, one can see oth- begins: it sends about 20 billion an- culate in a direction counter to that of er antiprotons-some racing faster, tiprotons per hour to a concentric ring the antiprotons. The antiproton bunch- some moving slower and some oscillat- called the Accumulator. Several inde- es pass through the proton bunches ing from side to side. All in all, the an- pendent systems in the Accumulator many times, but at this stage the tiprotons take up a great deal of space, cool the beam of antiprotons further, bunches are much too diffuse for sig- making it difficult to manipulate the ultimately increasing the density of an- nificant collisions to take place. assembly and add more antiprotons. tiprotons by a factor of one million. Af- During the first 60 seconds of the To increase the density of antipro- ter four hours, the accumulator ring final step, both bunches of particles are SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 53 COMPUTER DISPLAYS represent particles forged by the colli- The "Lego plots" at the right show where the particles hit the sions between protons and antiprotons in the Tevatron. The Collider Detector and indicate how much energy the particles diagrams at the left indicate the trajectories of the particles. released. The pair of displays (above) show a Z⁰ particle de- accelerated to full energy. Strong quad- three quarks and many force-carry- far the results from CDF agree with the rupole magnets in the Tevatron's ring ing particles called gluons. The antipro- Standard Model. If quarks do have a then squeeze the particles together. ton is, similarly, an antimess. It seemed finite radius, it is less than 2 10⁻¹⁹ During this stage the delicate stability plausible that a collision between a pro- meters (that is, at least 4,000 times of the circulating bunches can easily be ton and an antiproton could have pro- smaller than the radius of a proton). disrupted, scattering particles every- duced an indecipherable hodgepodge in To determine crucial parameters of where. If all goes well, the beams are which most particles would mask the electromagnetic and weak forces, Fer- focused down to a diameter of about interesting behavior of others. It turned milab has studied the masses and de- 0.1 millimeter, comparable to the di- out, however, that most particles pro- cay properties of the W+, W- and Z° ameter of a human hair. The focusing duced in the collision were so low in particles. Although the 1987 results greatly increases the density of each energy as to be mere spectators of the from CDF gave the most precise value bunch. Each time the bunches cross, main events. Only a few high-energy for the Z⁰ mass, this was very soon su- there is now a 50 percent chance that a particles emerged, indicating a clean perseded by the "Z" factories, Stan- single proton will collide with a single collision between one quark in a proton ford's and CERN'S electron-positron col- antiproton. According to the original and another quark in an antiproton. liders. On the other hand, CDF sup- design, more than 50,000 collisions per A variety of high-energy particles can plemented by results from the CERN second should take place in the center be resolved by CDF. Electrons, mu- proton-antiproton collider provides the of the particle detector. ons and photons are easily identified primary data on W properties. The first series of collider experi- by their trajectories and energies. The In the past two decades, physicists ments ended in May 1987, and a sec- quarks appear as jets, that is, bundles have come to recognize that the weak ond series was started in July 1988 and of pions, protons, neutrons and kaons. and electromagnetic forces are expres- ran for 11 months. During that period Short-lived particles such as W and Z sions of a more profound interaction the Tevatron achieved a collision ener- also decay into a recognizable spray. In now designated the electroweak force. gy of 1.8 TeV. The collision rate im- many cases, neutrinos, which are not Fermilab has precisely measured a cru- proved from a few hundred per sec- recorded by CDF, can be located by not- cial parameter of the electroweak force, ond to 120,000 per second, more than ing "missing" momentum. the so-called weak mixing angle. This twice the design rate. The Tevatron parameter essentially describes the rel- produced a total of about 100 billion B y the end of 1990, Fermilab in- ative strengths of the electromagnetic collisions between protons and an- vestigators had published some and the weak forces in their elec- tiprotons. Furthermore, it could sustain 25 papers. These detailed such troweak alliance. a beam of circulating particles for as new insights as the size of quarks, the Fermilab has recently reported excit- long as 20 hours, but over time the nature of the weak and electromagnet- ing evidence for the production of B beams would slowly decrease in size ic forces, the properties of "bottom" mesons (particles made of a bottom and density as they were scattered by quarks and the lower limit of the mass quark and an antidown or antistrange residual gases in the vacuum tube and of the top quark. quark). The run in 1989 recorded about by other effects that are not yet un- The Standard Model assumes that as many B meson events as those ob- derstood. The Tevatron accomplished quarks are truly fundamental: they served in all the electron-positron col- these feats using only 20 megawatts of have neither structure nor spatial di- liders combined. The 1991 run should power (as compared with Fermilab's mension; they are point particles with increase the yield by 100 times in the consumption of 60 megawatts in 1979). no radius. If so, quarks should scatter CDF detector. One of the most satisfying aspects of off one another in different ways than Physicists generally believe that a de- these first experiments was to confirm they would if they have a finite radius tailed study of the decay of B mesons the hypothesis that proton-antiproton or any type of structure. Investigators will lead to a better understanding of collisions can be analyzed in a straight- may be able to determine whether the origin of matter. In recent years we forward manner. This hypothesis is not quarks have structure, therefore, by have learned that the origin of matter obvious when one considers that the studying the distribution of jets pro- in the early universe was derived from proton is a mess: it is composed of duced in collisions between quarks. So a tiny violation of a deep symmetry of 54 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 PERMITM 098 caying into an electron and a positron. In the other pair, a represents the interior of the detector as though the cylindri- quark degenerates into two jets containing protons, neu- cal device were cut across the top and flattened. The ener- trons, mesons and other baryons. The grid in the Lego plots gy scale (labeled "ET") is given in billions of electron volts. matter and antimatter, known as the ties of particles carrying the "charm" 1995, a 3-TeV proton accelerator at the charge-parity symmetry. Hence, the quark. In a 1987 run, this experiment Soviet accelerator laboratory at Serpuk- study of this symmetry violation in B amassed more fully analyzed charm hov. The most dramatic occurrence, mesons will be a major focus of Teva- events than had previously been col- however-certainly from the perspec- tron during the next decade. lected by all the world's facilities since tive of the U.S.-is the decision to build One of Fermilab's highest priorities the charm quark was discovered in the Superconducting Supercollider. It has been to search for events that 1975. The result was a bonanza of data will use 10,000 superconducting mag- would suggest the production and de- on lifetimes, new states and modes nets in a pair of 20-TeV proton rings. cay of a top quark. So far CDF has ob- of decay. As the Tevatron program enters served only one dubious event. Apply- The Tevatron entered final phase of its second decade, it maintains an ing theoretical predictions for the num- its program in July 1989, when I retired approach consistent with Fermilab's ber of events that should have been as director of Fermilab and was suc- founding philosophy: the laboratory observed in the CDF data for any as- ceeded by John Peoples, Jr. The pro- exists to serve the university science sumed mass of the top quark, CDF con- gram, called Fermi III, includes, notably, community. It is important to point out cluded that the mass of the top quark a more powerful linear accelerator and that the typical university group that is greater than 90 GeV. a new Main Ring to inject particles into collaborates at Fermilab is about the Why is the top quark so much heav- the Tevatron. Fermi III should improve same size as those that do experimen- ier than its closest relative, the 5-GeV the collision rate of the Tevatron from tal science anywhere in the university. bottom quark? The answer is connect- 120,000 per second to more than six Fermilab and other "big science" proj- ed to the most interesting issue in par- million per second. Because of these ects should be judged on the scientific ticle physics-the nature of mass and improvements, by 1996 the Tevatron value of their work and the opportuni- the mechanisms by which the particles should be sensitive to a top quark with ties they provide to both experienced of matter acquire mass. The most ele- a mass as high as 250 GeV. professors and young investigators. gant theories predict that the quarks Fermi III also plans to complete a Oceanographers, astronomers, genome should have small or vanishing mass. second detector called DZERO for ex- biologists and particle physicists have Is the top quark just an anomalous- periments to begin in 1992. DZERO in- been wrestling with the problem of ly heavy spectator, or is it the key to corporates a great deal of the experi- managing large, shared facilities for the internal structure of the Standard ence acquired by CERN in its pioneer- some time. We must learn to cope with Model? The Tevatron is now the only ing proton-antiproton research. Paul D. the human problems, particularly the accelerator in the world that can ad- Grannis of the State University of New preservation of creativity and initiative, dress this issue. In the next decade CDF York at Stony Brook and H. Eugene if we are to continue to probe nature's is planning to increase its sensitivity Fisk of Fermilab led the DZERO project deepest secrets. gradually to find the top quark. and enjoyed assistance from some 17 U.S. and foreign institutions. As the D uring the past six years, while detectors are gradually improved to FURTHER READING Fermilab developed and used match the machine's performance, the SUPERCONDUCTING MAGNET TECHNOLO- the Tevatron collider, it con- Tevatron will seek again to peer inside GY FOR ACCELERATORS. R. Palmer and tinued to produce important results the quark and the electron, and it will A. V. Tollestrup in Annual Review of with the fixed-target program. Here the subject the Standard Model to tests of Nuclear and Particle Science, Vol. 34, power of the Tevatron was used to cre- great precision. pages 247-284; 1984. ate beams of muons, neutrinos, pions Fermilab's pioneering efforts in su- WORLDS WITHIN THE AToM. John Bos- and other particles. The Tevatron's high perconducting magnet technology will lough in National Geographic, Vol. 167, energy and superior time structure strongly influence the future of acceler- No. 5, pages 634-663; May 1985. have yielded data of unequaled preci- ators. Several machines will soon use FROM QUARKS TO THE COSMOS: TOOLS OF DISCOVERY. Leon M. Lederman and Da- sion for more than 20 experiments. superconducting magnet technologies, vid N. Schramm. Scientific American Li- One of the most interesting exam- including, this year, the 800-GeV pro- brary, 1989. ples is the research on the proper- ton ring at the DESY laboratory and, in SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1990 55 What Controls the Cell Cycle Although the recursive events leading to the birth of new cells are well known, biologists are only now learning how those events are regulated. One protein is the major regulator in virtually all organisms by Andrew W. Murray and Marc W. Kirschner B y 1900 scientists had already ing of the first transcontinental rail- sperm. Hence, if the cells of successive identified the basic events of the road in the U.S., during which two sep- generations of an organism are to con- cell cycle-the growth and divi- arate groups labored in splendid iso- tain the same number of chromosomes sion of a single cell into daughter cells. lation before uniting their tracks with as the cells of the parents, the egg and Yet until recently, little was known a golden spike at Promontory Point, sperm must each carry only half that about what regulated that cycle, which Utah, in 1869. In the case of the cell, number. This halving of chromosome in humans is vital not only to repro- biochemists and physiologists (study- number is accomplished by meiosis, in duction but also to growth, tissue re- ing eggs) and geneticists (studying uni- which precursors of eggs and sperm pair, immunity and countless other cellular yeast) have finally achieved a undergo two rounds of chromosomal processes. satisfying intellectual union some 20 segregation in rapid succession with- In the past five years, two separate years after they began separate lines of out an intervening period of replica- experimental approaches to the prob- investigation. tion. In males the precursors divide lem have converged on an astonishing symmetrically, producing four sperm. finding. The regulation of the cycle in eukaryotes (all living organisms except W hen the two scientific groups In females the precursors divide asym- began their work on the cell metrically, producing one large egg bacteria and viruses) seems to depend cycle, they had a common and, usually, three very small cells that to a great extent on changes in the ac- foundation of knowledge. For instance, are discarded. tivity of a single molecule, called the 19th-century microscopists and other By 20 years ago it was also clear that cdc2 protein. researchers had established that the the cell cycle is exquisitely regulated. The discovery is exciting not only be- cycle has two main phases: interphase One type of regulation concerns the cause it illuminates a problem that has and mitosis [see illustration on oppo- control of cell size. At the end of mito- puzzled cell biologists for decades but site page]. sis, newly formed somatic (nonrepro- also because a deepened understand- In interphase the cell nucleus re- ductive) cells are the same size the par- ing of cell-cycle regulation could have mains intact. A cell grows continu- ent cell was at its birth, which means profound implications for medicine. ously, stockpiling material enough for the parent somehow paces its division On one hand, the work could lead to two cells. It also replicates its chro- to occur precisely when its mass has new ways to induce proliferation of mosomes, shortly before mitosis. The been doubled. cells needed to reconstruct damaged chromosomes, which are made of DNA Cells also have to coordinate various organs or tissues-perhaps including and are stored in the nucleus, contain events in the cycle. For instance, they mature neurons, which do not divide. the genes. must avoid entering mitosis or meiosis On the other hand, improved under- In mitosis, two nuclei are formed until their chromosomes have been standing of the cycle may help yield from one. First the envelope encasing replicated; failure to wait can yield cells ways to halt the promiscuous repro- the nucleus breaks down, and the now that lack a particular chromosome-an duction of cancer cells. duplicated chromosomes become at- aberration that can kill a cell or, at In a way, the recent history of cell-cy- tached to a structure called the mitotic times, promote cancer. What remained cle research is reminiscent of the build- spindle. Then the spindle segregates unclear was just how cells managed to the chromosomes, ensuring that each coordinate the segregation of chromo- daughter nucleus will have one copy somes with their replication and also of every chromosome. Next a nuclear to coordinate those processes with cell ANDREW W. MURRAY and MARC W. envelope re-forms around each set of growth. KIRSCHNER are colleagues at the Uni- chromosomes, after which the rest of Yoshio Masui, then at Yale Univer- versity of California, San Francisco. Mur- ray, who is assistant professor of phys- the cell, including the cytoplasm, di- sity, and L. Dennis Smith, then at iology, obtained his Ph.D. from Har- vides to form two complete daughter Argonne National Laboratory, took a vard University in 1984. He worked in cells that are genetically identical to the giant step toward answering that ques- Kirschner's laboratory before taking his parent [see "The Mitotic Spindle," by tion in 1971. They independently iden- current post. Kirschner, who holds a J. Richard McIntosh and Kent L. Mc- tified a substance in frog eggs that 1971 doctorate from the University of Donald; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, October seemed to control when mitosis and California, Berkeley, has been professor 1989]. meiosis began. of biochemistry and biophysics at the Sometimes a process called meio- The basic development of those eggs San Francisco campus since 1978. He moved to San Francisco from Princeton sis substitutes for mitosis. During sex- must be sketched briefly if Masui and University. ual reproduction, new individuals are Smith's findings are to be understood formed by the fusion of an egg with a [see illustration on page 58]. The pre- 56 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1991 "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121081 FROM: PEWITT, Douglas TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 04/03/91 SUBJECT: SUPERCONDUCTING SUPER COLLIDER ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: DATE RECEIVED: 04/08/91 FILE: P- PHYSICAL SCIENCES-ENERGY O Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 01. Letter To: Allan Bromley From: Douglas Pewitt 4/3/91 (b)(2) Re: Superconducting Super Collider (3 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP) Series: Bromley, D. Allan, Files Subseries: General Science Files WHORM Cat.: File Location: Physical Science: Energy [2 of 2] [1991] Date Closed: 3/29/2010 OA/ID Number: 62043-005 FOIA/SYS Case #: 2005-0336-F Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. TEL: Apr 03,91 16:24 No. 004 P.01 FAX TRANSMISSION TO: Name : Prof. D. Allan Bromley Date: Company : 3 Mar 91 Fax Number: (202) 395-3261 Phone : (202) 456-7116 FROM: N. D. Pewitt Fax Number: (214) 780-0733 Phone : (214) 780-7052 SUBJECT: Superconducting Super Collider MESSAGE: Comments I hope are useful. PAGE: 1 OF: 4 MS as guessed this in the system DAB shin was in not system to WORG wl I gone No need Y Karl CC to a do copy any so copies du 4/8 "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120962 FROM: DAVIS, Edward M.: AMERICAN NUCLEAR ENERGY COUNCIL TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 03/28/91 SUBJECT: DR. BROMLEY'S SUPPORTIVE EFFORTS IN ENSURING THAT NUCLEAR ENERGY'S POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS WERE RECOGNIZED IN THE ADMINISTRATION'S NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY. ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P-Physical Sciences DATE RECEIVED: 04/01/91 FILE: ENERGY 912 9120961 0961 AMERICAN NUCLEAR ENERGY COUNCIL RECEIVED Edward M. Davis President 91 APR / P2:48 March 28, 1991 OFFICE OF THE The Honorable Allan Bromley DIRECTOR Assistant to the President for Science and Technology The White House Washington, DC 20500 Dear Dr. Bromley: On behalf of the American Nuclear Energy Council (ANEC), I would like to thank you for your supportive efforts in ensuring that nuclear energy's potential contribution to meeting our nation's future energy and environmental needs were recognized in the Adminstration's National Energy Strategy (NES). We believe that the recent events in the Persian Gulf and the congressional enactment of the Clean Air Act Amendments compel the nation to increase its reliance on nuclear energy in the future. We are prepared to assist the Administration and Congress in efforts to fashion a bipartisan national energy strategy that promotes economic growth, energy security and environmental progress. We also applaud the Administration's position on the various provisions that address the central impediments to revitalizing the nuclear energy option, specifically nuclear licensing reform for advanced, standardized plants and nuclear waste management initiatives to resolve the impasse at Yucca Mountain site. We urge your continued support of these provisions as part of a comprehensive energy bill. For your information, I have taken the liberty of enclosing a recent speech that I gave on the implications of global warming for the U.S. nuclear energy industry which discusses how nuclear energy contributes to curbing the buildup of greenhouse gases. We look forward to the opportunity of working with you and your staff on energy policy. Please have your staff contact me if I can be of assistance. Sincerely, EC Javin Edward M. Davis 410 First Street, SE, Washington, DC 20003 (202) 484-2670 "IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING FOR THE U.S. NUCLEAR ENERGY INDUSTRY" Edward M. Davis President American Nuclear Energy Council Presented to The Third U.S. Energy Association Global Climate Change Forum Tuesday, March 5, 1991 I WANT TO THANK THE U.S. ENERGY ASSOCIATION FOR THE KIND INVITATION TO SPEAK HERE TODAY BEFORE SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE AUDIENCE. I ESPECIALLY WANT TO THANK JOHN GREY, JOHN LANDIS AND ROGER GALE FOR WHOM I'VE HAD THE PRIVILEGE TO KNOW AND FOR WHOM I HAVE THE HIGHEST RESPECT WHEN IT COMES TO ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY MATTERS. I AM DELIGHTED TO SPEAK ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING FOR THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THIS IS A TIMELY MEETING AND TOPIC. THIS DECADE IS SHAPING UP AS AN EXTRAORDINARILY PIVOTAL ONE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, FOR ENERGY SECURITY AND - - NOT COINCIDENTALLY- - FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY. WHAT WE DO - OR DON'T DO - - IN THE NINETIES WILL VERY LIKELY DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, THE ENERGY BLUEPRINT AND VERY FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN THE NEXT CENTURY. SO THE QUESTIONS WE ARE ATTEMPTING TO ANSWER TODAY ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT ONES. IF I WERE TO ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN ONE WORD, MY SPEECH WOULD BE VERY SHORT AND SIMPLE. THE ANSWER IS SIGNIFICANT. BUT TO APPRECIATE THE FULL RAMIFICATIONS OF CONCERNS ABOUT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON NUCLEAR ENERGY - AND ALL OTHER ENERGY RESOURCES FOR THAT MATTER - I THINK WE HAVE TO PUT THEM IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MANY OTHER RELATED CONSIDERATIONS THAT ARE AT WORK TODAY. FOR TODAY, THERE IS A CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS, INCLUDING THE PERSIAN GULF WAR AND THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S SUBMITTAL OF ITS NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY, THAT IS CREATING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EFFECTIVE ACTION. 2 AS THEY SAY IN THE ADVERTISING BUSINESS, "THE MEDIUM IS THE MESSAGE." IT IS MY BELIEF THAT IN THE ENERGY BUSINESS, THE CONTEXT IS THE MESSAGE AND, AS I WILL EXPLAIN LATER, THE GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE HAS FUNDAMENTALLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED THE WAY WE VIEW ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ISSUES. THIS IS THE INSIGHT I HOPE I CAN SHARE WITH YOU TODAY. BECAUSE, AS I SAT DOWN TO PREPARE MY REMARKS, IT BECAME APPARENT TO ME THAT I WOULD HAVE TO FOCUS ON SOMETHING BESIDES THE OBVIOUS. IF YOU ACCEPT THE FACT THAT NUCLEAR ENERGY EMITS NO GREENHOUSE GASES AND THE FACT THAT, ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY (NES) REPORT, IF NO ACTION IS TAKEN, THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS TO MEET U.S. ENERGY DEMAND WILL RESULT IN AN 80 PERCENT INCREASE IN ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS BY THE YEAR 2030, THEN YOU READILY UNDERSTAND WHY THE DEBATE OVER NUCLEAR ENERGY IS BEING RESHAPED BY THE OMNIPRESENT CONCERN FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE, AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN GENERAL. SO TODAY I WOULD LIKE TO FOCUS MY REMARKS NOT ON THE TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF HOW NUCLEAR ENERGY MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO EFFORTS TO CURB THE BUILD-UP OF GREENHOUSE GASES, BUT RATHER HOW THE POLITICAL CONCERN FOR GLOBAL WARMING AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS INFLUENCING THE DEBATE ON NUCLEAR ENERGY AND ENERGY IN GENERAL. IN MY VIEW, GLOBAL WARMING HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR THE REVITALIZATION OF NUCLEAR ENERGY BECAUSE THE ISSUE FORCES ONE TO TAKE AN INTEGRATED LOOK AT BOTH OUR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS. IT IS THIS INTEGRATION OF ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICYMAKING THAT IS CHANGING THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE WHEN IT COMES TO NUCLEAR ENERGY. 3 AS AN INDICATION OF THE NEED FOR THIS INTEGRATED EXAMINATION OF OUR NATION'S ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES AND ITS IMPACT ON THE FORTHCOMING DEBATE ON ENERGY POLICY, I WOULD CALL YOUR ATTENTION TO THE RECENT SPEECH OF HOUSE ENERGY COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN JOHN DINGELL, IN WHICH HE STATED IN PART WHAT I'M NOW PARAPHRASING: "WE ARE NOW CURSED BY THE TRADITIONAL CONFLICT BETWEEN ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY MUCH OF OUR LAW AND PRACTICE IS BASED ON THAT CONFLICT "INSTEAD OF SWINGING BACK-AND-FORTH BETWEEN OUR CONCERN FOR ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING OF LAWS WE HAD PASSED JUST A FEW YEARS EARLIER, WE NEED TO INTEGRATE THE TWO AND FASHION ENERGY POLICIES WHICH TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE NEED TO PROTECT OUR ENVIRONMENT "WITH SERIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES SUCH AS GLOBAL WARMING, WE NEED TO FIND SOLUTIONS TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS CONSISTENT WITH ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION "A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF A TOUGH ENERGY ISSUE IS NUCLEAR POWER. THERE IS NO MIDDLE GROUND ON NUCLEAR POWER. BUT EVENTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF, AND THE PASSAGE OF THE CLEAN AIR ACT LAST YEAR, BOTH MAKE NUCLEAR POWER MORE IMPORTANT." THE CHAIRMAN CONCLUDED HIS REMARKS BY SAYING, "THERE IS NO HOPE FOR ENERGY INDEPENDENCE IN THIS COUNTRY UNLESS WE MOVE STRONGLY TOWARD NUCLEAR POWER." WHILE CHAIRMAN DINGELL WAS REFERRING TO THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, THE 4 IMPLICATIONS OF EFFORTS TO CURE GLOBAL WARMING YIELD SIMILAR OBSERVATIONS BY MOST OBJECTIVE ENERGY POLICY ANALYSTS. I'M NOT HERE TO TELL YOU THAT NUCLEAR ENERGY IS A PANACEA - CLEARLY IT IS NOT. THE NATION REQUIRES A COMPREHENSIVE AND BALANCED NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY - ONE THAT RELIES ON CONSERVATION AND DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT, AS WELL AS ENHANCED PRODUCTION OF DOMESTIC ENERGY SOURCES, INCLUDING NUCLEAR ENERGY. BUT, IN MANY RESPECTS, NUCLEAR ENERGY BEATS WHATEVER IS IN SECOND PLACE, WHEN YOU CONSIDER BOTH ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE UTILITY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORS. BY THE WAY, THOSE TWO SECTORS ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT 63 PERCENT OF OUR TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION. SO IF YOU DEFINE OUR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM IN AN INTEGRATIVE WAY, ONE OF PROVIDING FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND AND SIMULTANEOUSLY: REDUCING OIL CONSUMPTION REDUCING OR STABILIZING CO2 EMISSIONS THEN NUCLEAR ENERGY BECOMES AN ATTRACTIVE OPTION, PARTICULARLY WHEN USED WITH ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION. BECAUSE IT IS SUCH AN OBVIOUS CHOICE, PEOPLE AND POLITICIANS OF ALL POLITICAL PERSUASIONS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE AN OBJECTIVE LOOK AT NUCLEAR ENERGY. AND SO THE OLD POLITICAL CALCULUS IS GIVING WAY TO A NEW POLITICAL EQUATION OR DYNAMIC. MOREOVER, AS A CONSEQUENCE, MANY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS ARE BECOMING 5 LESS TOLERANT AND LESS PATIENT WITH THOSE WHO ARE IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED TO NUCLEAR ENERGY. ONE CANNOT DISMISS NUCLEAR ENERGY OUTRIGHT AS AN OPTION AND STILL BE INTELLECTUALLY HONEST. ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS LOSE CREDIBILITY WITH CONGRESS WHEN THEY ARGUE ON THE ONE HAND THAT THE GLOBAL CLIMATE ISSUE REQUIRES URGENT AND SIGNIFICANT ACTION,AND ON THE OTHER HAND, SAY THAT, DESPITE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE ISSUES, NUCLEAR ENERGY MUST NOT BE CONSIDERED AS AN OPTION. I CAN'T EVEN BEGIN TO COUNT THE MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WHO HAVE TOLD ME THE STORY OF HOW THE ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS LOBBIED FOR STRINGENT CLEAN AIR STANDARDS, ONLY TO MUMBLE AN ANSWER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THEIR POSITION ON NUCLEAR ENERGY. AS A CONSEQUENCE, MODERATE ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS HAVE ACKNOWLEDGED, ALBEIT GRUDGINGLY, NUCLEAR ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ROLE IN CURBING GREENHOUSE GASES. FOR EXAMPLE, THE UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS (UCS) IN A JANUARY 1990 LETTER TO PRESIDENT BUSH SIGNED BY A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF THE NATION'S MOST PROMINENT SCIENTISTS, INCLUDING 49 NOBEL LAUREATES AND 700 MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, CALLED FOR STRONG LEADERSHIP BY THE U.S. IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF GLOBAL WARMING POLICY. A UCS STATEMENT STATES THAT: "GLOBAL WARMING HAS EMERGED AS THE MOST SERIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL THREAT OF THE 21ST CENTURY ONLY BY TAKING ACTION NOW CAN WE ENSURE THAT FUTURE GENERATIONS WILL NOT BE PUT AT RISK THE UNITED STATES SHOULD DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT A NEW NATIONAL ENERGY 6 POLICY, BASED ON THE NEED TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE, WHILE SUSTAINING ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CORNERSTONES OF THIS POLICY SHOULD BE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND THE EXPANSION OF CLEAN ENERGY SOURCES." THESE SCIENTISTS PROPOSE A FIVE-POINT PLAN THAT INCLUDES: A STEADY INCREASE IN MOTOR VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS, WHILE THE SEARCH CONTINUES FOR FUELS AND OTHER TECHNOLOGIES THAT MITIGATE CARBON DIOXIDE IMPACT; A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FEDERAL FUNDING FOR RESEARCH ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY TECHNOLOGIES, AS WELL AS FEDERAL ACTIVITIES TO ENHANCE THE ADOPTION OF MORE EFFICIENT ENERGY USE; DEVELOPMENT, DEMONSTRATION AND COMMERCIALIZATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ON A MASSIVE SCALE; A NUCLEAR ENERGY PROGRAM THAT EMPHASIZES PROTECTION OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND SAFETY, RESOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL, AND STRINGENT SAFEGUARDS AGAINST THE PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS AND TECHNOLOGY THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO WEAPONS CONSTRUCTION, AND FULL CONSIDERATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF FEDERAL SUBSIDIES AND REGULATORY STANDARDS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY SOURCES. 7 IN A NUTSHELL, THE GLOBAL CLIMATE ISSUE HAS RESHAPED THE WAY WE CONSIDER ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ISSUES AND HAS LED TO AN INTEGRATED LOOK AT ENERGY ALTERNATIVES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE TRADEOFFS. NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY THE RECENTLY RELEASED NES IS A LANDMARK INTEGRATED STUDY ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. ITS AUTHORS SHOULD BE COMMENDED FOR PROVIDING AN INVALUABLE SERVICE TO THE NATION, INCLUDING: MARK KERRIGAN, LINDA STUNTZ, ASSISTANT SECRETARY BILL YOUNG, DEPUTY SECRETARY HENSON MOORE AND SECRETARY WATKINS. IT IS MY HOPE THAT THE NES WILL SERVE AS AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK UPON WHICH TO EVALUATE OUR ENERGY ALTERNATIVES. THE NES, IN ADDITION TO PROPOSING AN ENERGY STRATEGY, ALSO LAYS OUT A STRATEGY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRESS, AND SPECIFICALLY FOR CURBING THE BUILD-UP OF TOTAL GREENHOUSE GASES. THE NES PROVIDES A SERIES OF ACTIONS THAT WILL REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES FROM FUTURE ENERGY PRODUCTION AND USE. THE NES STRATEGY REFLECTS MEASURES THAT, IF IMPLEMENTED, WOULD RESULT IN U.S. CO2 LEVELS INCREASING BY APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE YEAR 2015 AND THEN MAINTAINING ANNUAL CO2 EMISSIONS AT OR BELOW THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE YEAR 2030. WHEN ADDED WITH ACTIONS PLANNED AND BEING TAKEN TO CURB OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES, THE NES STRATEGY WILL HOLD 8 GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL (GWP) EMISSIONS AT OR BELOW THE 1990 LEVEL. THE NES STRATEGY IS BASED ON TWO BASIC APPROACHES: IMPROVING ENERGY EFFICIENCY, AND SHIFTING TO ENERGY SOURCES AND TECHNOLOGIES THAT EMIT FEWER GREENHOUSE GASES. ENERGY EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES IN THE NES INCLUDE: INCREASED TRANSPORTATION FUEL EFFICIENCY; IMPROVED BUILDING EFFICIENCY, INCLUDING ENHANCED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN IMPROVING INDUSTRIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENHANCED TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES, AND FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING IN ELECTRICITY MARKETS. FOR NEW AND EXITING TECHNOLOGIES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OR MINIMAL NET GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, THESE ACTIONS WILL: REMOVE REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS TO NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, TRANSMISSION AND USE; REDUCE CONSTRAINTS TO OBTAINING ADDITIONAL HYDROELECTRIC POWER FROM EXISTING DAMS; 9 FACILITATE NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LICENSING REFORM; DEVELOP ACCELERATED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON BIOMASS-BASED ALCOHOL AND ALTERNATIVE FUELS; CONTINUE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS TO DEVELOP PHOTOVOLTAIC, WIND, SOLAR THERMAL, BIOMASS, AND GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGIES, AND PROVIDE INCENTIVES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGY BY THE YEAR 2000, NES ACTIONS THAT WILL BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTORS TO CURBING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INCLUDE: INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING EFFORTS, COUPLED WITH ENERGY EFFICIENCY ACTIONS, THAT REDUCE ELECTRICITY DEMAND (25 PERCENT OF TOTAL REDUCTION); NATURAL GAS REFORMS (23 PERCENT); GREATER USE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELED VEHICLES (23 PERCENT), AND EXPANDED USE OF WASTE-TO-ENERGY TECHNOLOGY (15%) THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTORS TO REDUCING GREENHOUSE GASES IN 2030 WOULD BE: EXPANDED USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY (36 PERCENT); INCREASED TRANSPORTATION FUEL EFFICIENCY AND EXPANDED USE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS AND ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES (25 PERCENT) 10 ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING EFFORTS (15 PERCENT), AND INDUSTRIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS (11 PERCENT). IN THE LONG RUN, NUCLEAR ENERGY IS THE SINGLE LARGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO CURBING GREENHOUSE GASES. TODAY, THE 111 U.S. COMMERCIALLY OPERATING PLANTS, TOTALLING A COMBINED GENERATING CAPACITY OF 100,774 MEGAWATTS, REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS BY APPROXIMATELY 128 MILLION TONS ANNUALLY. AS FAR AS THE FUTURE IS CONCERNED, THE ADMINISTRATION'S STRATEGY OF RELYING ON NUCLEAR ENERGY COULD PROVE TO BE AN EFFECTIVE ONE AS DEMONSTRATED BY THE FRENCH EXPERIENCE. SINCE THE 1970S, NUCLEAR GENERATION INCREASED IN FRANCE FROM 10 PERCENT TO MORE THAN 75 PERCENT TODAY. AS A RESULT, FROM 1979-1987: SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS DECLINED 92 PERCENT, FROM 978,000 TO 83,000 TONS ANNUALLY; NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS DECLINED 84 PERCENT, FROM 208,000 TONS TO 34,000 TONS ANNUALLY, AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS DECLINED 84 PERCENT, FROM 82 MILLION TONS TO 13 MILLION TONS ANNUALLY. THESE REDUCTIONS IN AIRBORNE EMISSIONS CLEARLY PROVE THAT NUCLEAR ENERGY WORKS FOR A CLEAN ENVIRONMENT. THIS FACT IS ALSO DEMONSTRATED IN THE INTEGRATED NES ANALYSIS THAT WITHOUT RELIANCE ON NUCLEAR ENERGY, IT 11 BECOMES NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CURB THE BUILDUP OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND MAINTAIN ECONOMIC GROWTH. THIS CONCLUSION HAS BEEN REACHED BY MANY OTHERS INVOLVED IN THE DEBATE OVER GLOBAL WARMING. FOR EXAMPLE, SENATOR TIM WIRTH EARLY ON MUST HAVE ARRIVED AT THIS CONCLUSION, AND HAS NOT BEEN SWAYED BY ATTACKS ON HIM FOR THINKING OR SPEAKING THE UNTHINKABLE - THAT NUCLEAR ENERGY RATHER THAN BEING AN ENVIRONMENTAL CURSE MIGHT PROVE TO BE THE ENVIRONMENT'S BEST HOPE FOR CURBING GREENHOUSE GASES. NES AND THE NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION THE NES INCLUDES FOUR KEY GOALS FOR THE NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION WITH AN OVERRIDING THEME TO REMOVE UNDUE REGULATORY AND INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS: MAINTAINING EXACTING SAFETY AND DESIGN STANDARDS; REDUCING ECONOMIC RISK; REDUCING REGULATORY RISK, AND ESTABLISHING PROGRESS ON HIGH-LEVEL WASTE DISPOSAL; FOUR INITIATIVES IN THE NES TO REVIVE THE NUCLEAR ENERGY INDUSTRY INCLUDE: ACCELERATE INTRODUCTION OF ADVANCED NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANT DESIGNS; ACCELERATE CERTIFICATION OF STANDARD PLANT DESIGNS; REFORM THE LICENSING PROCESS, AND 12 ENCOURAGE PROGRESS ON HIGH-LEVEL WASTE DISPOSAL. THE DOE'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH ITS FY 92 BUDGET REQUEST AND NES LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES IN THE SENATE AND HOUSE. THE MAJOR GOAL OF DOE'S PROGRAM IS TO MAKE COMMERCIALLY STANDARDIZED ADVANCED LIGHT-WATER REACTOR DESIGNS AVAILABLE FOR ORDER BY 1995; TO ASSIST IN SECURING AN ORDER BY 1995 AND TO PROVIDE FOR NEW NUCLEAR CAPACITY GENERATION BY 2000. THUS, THE NES PAVES THE WAY FOR A PROJECTED 195 TO 290 GIGAWATTS OF NUCLEAR CAPACITY TO BE ON LINE BY 2030 IF THE NATION CAN OVERCOME THE BARRIERS TO INVESTING IN NEW NUCLEAR POWERPLANTS, EXTENDING THE LIFETIME OF EXISTING PLANTS AND DISPOSING OF NUCLEAR WASTE. THIS GOAL AND PROGRAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INDUSTRY'S STRATEGIC PLAN FOR ORDERING THE NEXT NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANT BY 1995, WHICH WAS RELEASED IN NOVEMBER LAST YEAR. THE NUCLEAR POWER OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE (NPOC) STRATEGIC PLAN: IDENTIFIES ALL THE SIGNIFICANT ENABLING CONDITIONS WHICH MUST BE MET TO ACHIEVE THIS GOAL; ASSIGNS LEAD AND SUPPORTING RESPONSIBILITIES TO THE APPROPRIATE EXISTING ORGANIZATIONS OR STANDING COMMITTEES IN THE INDUSTRY TO DETAIL AND IMPLEMENT AND ACTION PLAN FOR ACHIEVING EACH CONDITION, AND FOSTERS JOINT AND COORDINATED EFFORTS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STRATEGIES AND PROVIDE FOR SHARING RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS. 13 THE DOE BUDGET REQUEST SUPPORTS THE GOAL OF A NEW ORDER BY 1995 BY PROVIDING FUNDING TO ACCELERATE DESIGN, CERTIFICATION AND FIRST OF KIND ENGINEERING ($62.5 MILLION). AS FAR AS LICENSING REFORM AND NUCLEAR WASTE IS CONCERNED, THE NES PROPOSES LEGISLATION IN THESE AREAS, AND I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT BOTH LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES ARE CONTAINED IN THE NES LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE TRANSMITTED TO CAPITOL HILL YESTERDAY, S. 570 AND H.R. 1301. I AM ALSO PLEASED TO REPORT THAT YESTERDAY THE SUPREME COURT DENIED NEVADA'S REQUEST TO REVIEW A 9TH CIRCUIT COURT DECISION, WHICH FOUND IN FAVOR OF DOE AND UPHELD THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE NUCLEAR WASTE POLICY ACT; THUS, BRINGING THE SOLUTION TO THE IMPASSE IN NEVADA OVER THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN PROGRAM ONE STEP CLOSER. I SUPPOSE THE ACTION NOW SHIFTS TO THE HILL IN ITS DELIBERATIONS ON NATIONAL ENERGY LEGISLATION. YOU MIGHT ASK WHAT SUPPORT THE INDUSTRY CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE FOR THE NUCLEAR INITIATIVES CONTAINED IN THE NES. AS AN INDICATION OF SUPPORT FOR NUCLEAR, I HAVE BROUGHT WITH ME THE RESULTS OF A RECENT CONGRESSIONAL POLL COMMISSIONED BY ANEC AND CONDUCTED BY REICHMAN- KARTEN-SWORD, INC. THE POLL SHOWS BROAD SUPPORT FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY AS PART OF THE NES: SEVENTY-SEVEN PERCENT OF THE 300 CONGRESSIONAL OFFICES SURVEYED FAVOR NUCLEAR ENERGY AND 85 PERCENT SAY NUCLEAR ENERGY SHOULD BE AN IMPORTANT PART OF AMERICA'S ENERGY FUTURE. BY MORE THAN A 2-TO-1 MARGIN, CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR THE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY'S GOAL OF ORDERING AN ADVANCED LIGHT-WATER REACTOR BY 1995. FIFTY-FIVE PERCENT FAVOR THIS GOAL 14 THE TOP THREE FACTORS INFLUENCING CONGRESSIONAL OPINION ON NUCLEAR ENERGY, ACCORDING TO CONGRESSIONAL STAFF ARE: -- SAFE OPERATIONS, 92 PERCENT; -- WASTE DISPOSAL, 86 PERCENT, AND -- PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, 63 PERCENT. ON THE ISSUE OF SAFETY, 85 PERCENT BELIEVE NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANTS ARE SAFE, AND 67 PERCENT SAY PLANT SAFETY IS IMPROVING. EIGHTY PERCENT RANK WASTE DISPOSAL AS A "VERY URGENT" LEGISLATIVE ISSUE. THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS, BESIDES CONCERN OVER GLOBAL WARMING, THAT ARE ALSO SHAPING THE WAY POLICYMAKERS VIEW THE NUCLEAR OPTION, INCLUDING: NUCLEAR ENERGY'S IMPROVED SAFETY RECORD; NEED FOR BASELOAD CAPABILITY; POTENTIAL FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES TO BACK OUT OIL FROM THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR, AND PASSAGE OF THE CLEAN AIR ACT. AS A RESULT OF THESE MANY FACTORS, THE STAGE IS SET FOR MAKING THE 1990S A DECADE OF EXTRAORDINARY PROGRESS FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY. WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO LAUNCH THE NEXT GENERATION OF NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANTS IN THIS DECADE BY COMPLETING THE CRITICAL REFORMS WHICH WE STARTED 10 YEARS AGO AND BY RESTORING THE CONFIDENCE THAT WILL ALLOW NEW ORDERS FOR NUCLEAR PLANTS TO BEGIN. 15 THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. AND WHEN MIXED WITH THE OTHER FACTORS I HAVE IDENTIFIED, WE SEE A POWERFUL ELIXIR FOR THE RENEWAL OF NUCLEAR ENERGY AND THE LAUNCHING OF A NEW GENERATION OF ADVANCED NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANTS. IN SHORT, THE STAGE IS SET FOR THE 102ND CONGRESS TO DRAW AN ENERGY BLUEPRINT FOR OUR NATION THAT WILL STAND THE TEST OF TIME. I BELIEVE THIS WILL BE AN HISTORIC CONGRESS WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY LEGISLATION. I AM EQUALLY CONVINCED THAT NUCLEAR ENERGY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FINAL ENERGY STRATEGY TO EMERGE FROM CONGRESS. NUCLEAR ENERGY TRULY WORKS FOR A CLEAN ENVIRONMENT AND PROVIDES AMERICA THE POWER OF INDEPENDENCE. THE QUESTION IN THIS DECADE IS NOT WHETHER ANOTHER NUCLEAR PLANT WILL BE BUILT, BUT WHEN, WHERE AND BY WHOM. THIS DOES NOT COME A MOMENT TOO EARLY FOR THE NATION. THE FACT IS THAT OUR NATION IS AT A CROSSROADS WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY POLICY. WE TRULY FACE A WATERSHED IN PROVIDING RELIABLE, SAFE AND CLEAN ENERGY FOR THE UNITED STATES -- AND NUCLEAR ENERGY IS PREPARED TO RESPOND TO MEET THIS CHALLENGE. "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120850 FROM: HEFNER, Robert A.: NATURAL GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION CO. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 03/20/91 SUBJECT: R&D FUNDS FOR NATURAL GAS VEHICLE TANK TECHNOLOGY ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong Dr. Phillips WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P-Physical Sciences . DATE RECEIVED: 03/25/91 FILE: ENERGY 03/22/91 11:27 THE GHK CO 405 948 9898 002 9120850 GHK A NATURAL GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION ECEIVED COMPANY ROBERT A. HEFNER III, CHAIRMAN March 20, 1991 91 MAR 25 P12: 21 TO: Mike Baly, President, American Gas Association Nicholas Bush, President, Natural Gas Supply Association OF THE Robert Catell, President, Brooklyn Union Gas CompanyRECTOR Richard Clarke, Chairman, Pacific Gas & Electric Daniel A. Dreyfus, Strategic Planning, GRI Richard D. Fairman, Chairman, Southern California Gas Co. Jerold V. Halvorsen, President, INGAA The Honorable Walter Hickel, Governor of Alaska Kenneth Lay, Chairman, Enron Oil & Gas Garry Mauro, Commissioner of Texas General Land Office Susan Pilcher, CEO, Natural Fuels Corporation The Honorable Charles Robb, U.S. Senate Chuck Roy, Fossil Fuels, US Department of Energy Alan Schwartz, Esquire J.D. Scott, Chairman, ONEOK Jeffrey Seisler, Executive Director, Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition The Honorable David Walters, Governor of Oklahoma The Honorable James D. Watkins, Secretary of Energy The Honorable Timothy Wirth, U.S. Senate Robert Woody, Esquire CC: D. Allen Bromley, Science & Technology Assistant to President Bush FROM: Robert A. Hefner III R RE: R&D Funds for Natural Gas Vehicle Tank Technology It seems to me the recent Gulf War should reemphasize our national R&D priorities and that one of the most vital areas for R&D funds should be natural gas vehicles. The total fiscal 1991 appropriation by Congress for natural gas research was $117.67 million. From that amount only $5.5 million was appropriated for natural gas vehicle research, and from that no funds were targeted for natural gas vehicle tank technology. The fiscal 1992 appropriation hearings are now in progress and no funds are included for NGV tank technology. I urge each of you to immediately do what you can to obtain allocation of significant R&D funds for NGV tank technology. I believe some of the Stealth carbon fiber and composite technology developed for the military would be applicable for NGV tank technology. When I mentioned this to Allen Bromley last week, he agreed this is an area of R&D that should be "looked into again". THE GHK COMPANY 3030 NORTHWEST EXPRESSWAY 18TH FLOOR OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA 73112-5467 USA TELEPHONE: 405/948-9800 TELEFAX: 405/948-9898 RECYCLED PAPER GHK A NATURAL GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION COMPANY RECEIVED III, CHAIRMAN March 20, 1991 91 MAR 25 24 TO: Mike Baly, President, American Gas Association Nicholas Bush, President, Natural Gas Supply Association Robert Catell, President, Brooklyn Union Gas Company HE Richard Clarke, Chairman, Pacific Gas & Electric RECTOR Daniel A. Dreyfus, Strategic Planning, GRI Richard D. Fairman, Chairman, Southern California Gas Co. Jerold V. Halvorsen, President, INGAA The Honorable Walter Hickel, Governor of Alaska Kenneth Lay, Chairman, Enron Oil & Gas Garry Mauro, Commissioner of Texas General Land Office Susan Pilcher, CEO, Natural Fuels Corporation The Honorable Charles Robb, U.S. Senate Chuck Roy, Fossil Fuels, US Department of Energy Alan Schwartz, Esquire J.D. Scott, Chairman, ONEOK Jeffrey Seisler, Executive Director, Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition The Honorable David Walters, Governor of Oklahoma The Honorable James D. Watkins, Secretary of Energy The Honorable Timothy Wirth, U.S. Senate Robert Woody, Esquire CC: D. Allen Bromley, Science & Technology Assistant to President Bush FROM: Robert A. Hefner R III RE: R&D Funds for Natural Gas Vehicle Tank Technology It seems to me the recent Gulf War should reemphasize our national R&D priorities and that one of the most vital areas for R&D funds should be natural gas vehicles. The total fiscal 1991 appropriation by Congress for natural gas research was $117.67 million. From that amount only $5.5 million was appropriated for natural gas vehicle research, and from that no funds were targeted for natural gas vehicle tank technology. The fiscal 1992 appropriation hearings are now in progress and no funds are included for NGV tank technology. I urge each of you to immediately do what you can to obtain allocation of significant R&D funds for NGV tank technology. I believe some of the Stealth carbon fiber and composite technology developed for the military would be applicable for NGV tank technology. When I mentioned this to Allen Bromley last week, he agreed this is an area of R&D that should be "looked into again". THE GHK COMPANY 3030 NORTHWEST EXPRESSWAY 18TH FLOOR OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA 73112-5467 USA TELEPHONE: 405/948-9800 TELEFAX: 405/948-9898 RECYCLED PAPER * "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120780 FROM: DAVIS, Edward M.: AMERICAN NUCLEAR ENERGY COUNCIL TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 03/14/91 SUBJECT: THE RESULTS OF AN ANEC-COMMISSIONED POLL ON CONGRESSIONAL ATTITUDES TOWARD NUCLEAR ENERGY. ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley Dr. Wong WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: TED GARRISH REMARKS: P-Physical Sciences DATE RECEIVED: 03/18/91 FILE: NUSBER ENERGY 9120780 AMERICAN NUCLEAR ENERGY COUNCIL RECEIVED March 14, 1991 MAR 18 Mr. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President for Science & Technology Policy OFFICE OF TORE Executive Office of the President Old Executive Office Building 17th Street & Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20506 Dear Mr. Bromley: On behalf of the American Nuclear Energy Council (ANEC), I am pleased to transmit to you the results of an ANEC-commissioned poll on congressional attitudes toward nuclear energy. The results indicate that broad support exists in Congress for nuclear energy's vital role in a national energy strategy, including initiatives that pave the way for an advanced nuclear energy plant order by 1995, nuclear energy plant licensing reform and progress on nuclear waste disposal. Seventy-seven percent of the 300 congressional offices surveyed favor nuclear energy and 85 percent say nuclear energy should be an important part of America's energy future. Fifty-five percent support the National Energy Strategy's goal of ordering an advanced nuclear energy plant reactor by 1995, while only 23 percent oppose the goal. Nuclear energy must be a principal component of any long-lasting energy blueprint that provides America energy security, economic vitality and environmental progress. I look forward to working with you as Congress develops an energy policy that, like nuclear energy, will give America the power of independence. For additional information on nuclear energy's vital role in a national energy strategy, please call Ted Garrish, ANEC senior vice president - governmental relations, at (202) 484-2670. Sincerely, EdDais Edward M. Davis EMD/pk Enclosures 410 First Street, S.E. Washington, D.C. 20003 (202) 484-2670 NUCLEAR ENERGY The Power of Independence. February 19, 1991 MEMORANDUM TO: Participants in Recent ANEC Survey FROM: Reichman-Karten-Sword, Inc. (RKS) SUBJECT: Summarizing Survey Results Between November 12 and December 14, 1990, RKS conducted 300 telephone interviews among energy legislative assistants assigned to representatives, senators and, energy and environmental committees. The average interview took 21 minutes to conduct and all participants were guaranteed their absolute anonymity. The purpose of the survey was to learn the mood of Congress in late 1990 regarding nuclear energy. In addition, the survey sought to assess the effectiveness of ANEC'S CONGRESSIONAL INFORMATION PROGRAM (CIP). CIP's goal is to enhance the under- standing and confidence of Congress in the safe operation of U.S. nuclear energy plants. Questions in the survey were directed at measuring how well CIP is achieving this goal. This memorandum highlights the key results generated by this survey. The interview covered the following four major categories: Challenges and issues facing nuclear energy from Congress' perspective; Regulation of nuclear energy; Influences on congressional opinions of nu- clear energy; and General opinions about nuclear energy. REICHMAN KARTEN SWORD, INC. Participants in ANEC Survey February 19, 1991 Page 2 CHALLENGES AND ISSUES FACING NUCLEAR ENERGY FROM CONGRESS' PERSPECTIVE Asked about nuclear energy's importance in the future, 38% of those interviewed say it will be very important, and 47% respond that it will be somewhat important for the future resulting in a total of 85% who expect that it will be important. Only 14% feel it will not be important. Asked how they think their constituents would respond, congressional staff perceive a gap between their own views and how they project their constituents' opinions: 9% expect their constituents would call nuclear energy very important in the future, and 45% expect that their constituents would respond that nuclear energy would be somewhat important. Some 40% expect that their constituents would say nuclear energy will not be important. In listing the biggest obstacles facing the nuclear energy industry today, the top three mentions by congressional staff are public opinion, waste disposal and safety. Asked to volunteer the major legislative issues relating to nuclear energy that con- gressional staff think Congress should ad- dress over the next two years, waste disposal is the top mention, followed by licensing reform, safety, and a national energy policy with a strong nuclear component. REICHMAN KARTEN SWORD, INC. Participants in ANEC Survey February 19, 1991 Page 3 REGULATION OF NUCLEAR ENERGY Asked to assess the effectiveness of the NRC as a regulatory agency, 7% call it very ef- fective and 53% respond somewhat effective for a total of 60% calling NRC effective. Some 28% label NRC as not too effective and 5% call it not at all effective for a total of 33% who rate NRC not effective. Thus, by 60% to 33%, congressional staff perceive NRC as effective. Questioned about where the regulation of nuclear plant safety authority should reside, by 72% to 21%, congressional energy staff feel it should be Federal rather than State government; regarding environmental aspects, by 57% to 30%, congressional staff also feel that this regulation should reside with the Federal government rather than State govern- ment. INFLUENCES ON CONGRESSIONAL OPINIONS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY In response to being read a list of nine items and asked how important each one will be on influencing congressional opinion on the need for nuclear energy in the future, three items are called very important by half or more of those interviewed: -- Safe operations; -- Progress on waste disposal; and -- Public acceptance. REICHMAN KARTEN SWORD, INC. Participants in ANEC Survey February 19, 1991 Page 4 Three items are called very important by about half of those interviewed: -- Demand for electricity; -- Reducing foreign oil dependence; and -- Cost of nuclear energy. In asking about contact with the nuclear energy industry, the survey finds two out of three responding that they had such contact over the past year. The most frequent con- tact was with a utility CEO or senior nuclear energy plant manager, and Washington or trade association reps. Asked about the effectiveness of this con- tact, 31% call it very effective, and 52% describe it as somewhat effective; only 6% say it is not effective and 11% respond they are "not sure". Asked to assess the job the nuclear energy industry does in getting information to con- gressional offices, 9% give the highest rat- ing, excellent, and another 55% call it pret- ty good; about one in four (28%) call it not so good and 6% describe it as poor. There- fore, by 64% to 34%, congressional staff give the industry positive marks. REICHMAN KARTEN SWORD, INC. Participants in ANEC Survey February 19, 1991 Page 5 When asked to volunteer how the nuclear ener- gy industry can improve the ways it gets information to Congress, the suggestion gar- nering the largest mention was "more personal contact". Other major suggestions were: -- more briefings; -- provide more information/greater detail; -- be more credible/accurate with the information provided; and -- improve public standing of nuclear energy. GENERAL OPINIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR ENERGY The survey finds over half saying they are familiar with the nuclear energy plant near- est their constituency; 78% say they are very or somewhat satisfied with the credibility of information provided by that plant; and 56% of those interviewed say that they have visited a nuclear energy plant -- up from 44% responding this way in a previous survey undertaken by ANEC. Asked how well informed they feel they are about nuclear energy plant operations, 15% respond very well informed, and 51% answer fairly well informed. REICHMAN KARTEN SWORD, INC. Participants in ANEC Survey February 19, 1991 Page 6 Asked directly whether they favor or oppose nuclear energy as one of the ways to provide electricity, the survey finds 77% who respond that they favor the use of nuclear energy, versus 15% who oppose it. When questioned about their opinions on the safety of nuclear energy plants, the 1990 survey finds 85% who call nuclear plants safe -- up from 72% answering this way in the 1988 survey. And when asked directly if they think safety at nuclear energy plants is improving, 67% respond affirmatively versus 18% who answer negatively and 15% who are not sure. Finally, congressional staff were asked if they support the nuclear industry's goal of placing an order for a nuclear energy plant by 1995 in time to serve customers by the turn of the century. Over half (55%) answer yes, compared with 23% who respond no, and a similar number (22%) who are not sure. And when asked the likelihood that a nuclear energy plant will be built in the U.S. over the next 10 years, 11% call it very likely and 46% say it is somewhat likely for a total of 57% who say it is likely. REICHMAN KARTEN SWORD, INC. A SURVEY OF CONGRESSIONAL STAFF AMERICAN NUCLEAR ENERGY COUNCIL CONGRESSIONAL INFORMATION PROGRAM FEBRUARY 1991 Reichman-Karten-Sword, Inc. New York - San Francisco OBJECTIVES Update ANEC's 1988 CIP survey by obtaining measurements of effectiveness of CIP Expand 1988 CIP survey to understand changes in opinions and the "why's" underlying opinions Utilize survey as basis for two-way communication with Congress SUBJECTS COVERED Problems and issues facing nuclear energy from Congress' perspective Regulation of nuclear energy General opinions about nuclear energy Influences on Congressional opinions of nuclear energy including CIP METHODOLOGY Survey aimed at energy legislative aides assigned to representatives, senators and energy and environmental committees ANEC provided Congressional Yellow Book as basis for sample selection RKS screened listings to locate proper person Chief of Staff Legislative Director Energy Legislative Assistant METHODOLOGY (cont'd) Introductory letter mailed in early November ANEC identified as sponsor Anonymity guaranteed Respondents promised summary Telephone interviews between November 12 and December 14, 1990 Average interview lasted 21 minutes Thank you letter and critique form sent to all respondents THE FINAL SAMPLE In total, 300 telephone interviews conducted: # TOTAL 300 Senate 52 Democrats 24 Republicans 28 House 208 Democrats 110 Republicans 98 Committee 40 Expected sampling error for Total is +4 at 95% NUCLEAR ENERGY'S IMPORTANCE IN FUTURE Percent 100 85 75 47 38 50 14 25 0 1990 Total Congress Not important Somewhat important Very important "Not sure" omitted NUCLEAR ENERGY'S IMPORTANCE IN FUTURE Percent 100 85 54 75 47 45 38 40 50 14 25 9 0 1990 Total Congress Congress projects constituents' opinions Not important Somewhat important Very important "Not sure" omitted PROBLEMS FACING NUCLEAR INDUSTRY Public opinion 76 Waste disposal 52 Safety 31 Environmental 12 Costs/economies 10 Regulation 9 0 50 100 Percent Volunteered MAJOR LEGISLATIVE ISSUES CONGRESS SHOULD ADDRESS Disposal 48 Licensing reform 17 Safety 15 National energy policy 14 Standard plant design 7 Liability 7 Reform NRC 6 Industry incentives 6 R&D-Nuclear technology 6 0 25 50 75 100 Percent Volunteered URGENCY OF LEGISLATIVE ISSUES Waste disposal 16 80 96 Standards/licensing 41 37 78 Advanced nuclear plants 51 20 71 Nat'l energy policy 28 40 68 nuclear component Domestic uranium 46 10 56 enrichment Limits on states 35 20 55 0 25 50 75 100 Percent Somewhat urgent Very urgent EFFECTIVENESS OF NRC Percent 100 53 50 28 7 5 7 0 Not Not at all Not too Somewhat Very sure effective effective effective effective NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANT REGULATION Federal Federal government government 57% 72% State government 30% State government 21% Not sure 13% Not sure 7% SAFETY ENVIRONMENTAL AUTHORITY ASPECTS FACTORS MOST INFLUENCING CONGRESSIONAL OPINIONS ON NUCLEAR ENERGY IN PAST Foreign oil 53 dependence Environment concerns 30 Safety 25 Electricity demands 15 Public opinion 14 Dealings with 11 nuclear industry 0 50 100 Percent Volunteered FACTORS' IMPORTANCE IN INFLUENCING CONGRESSIONAL OPINION IN FUTURE Safe operations 92 Waste disposal 86 progress Public acceptance 63 Electric demand 49 Reduce oil dependence 46 Cost 45 Economic benefits 37 Advanced plant 36 technology Air pollution reduction 35 0 25 50 75 100 Percent Rated "very important" IMPORTANCE OF INFORMATION SOURCES INFLUENCING CONGRESSIONAL OPINIONS Constituents 28 61 89 Federal agencies 58 24 82 Committee staff 40 39 79 Washington reps 60 18 78 Capitol briefings 53 17 70 Press 57 13 70 Industry information 52 14 66 Anti-nuclear groups 52 6 58 Opinion polls 48 6 54 0 50 100 Percent Somewhat important Very important NUCLEAR ENERGY WRITTEN INFORMATION ANEC 33% Local 22% Not utilities received Received 6% 94% DOE 18% Nuclear 18% industry NRC 15% Environmental WAS IT groups 14% RECEIVED? WHAT WAS THE SOURCE? - WAS INFORMATION READ? Scanned 65% Read 31% Ignored Not sure 2% 2% Base: Received information GETTING INFORMATION TO CONGRESS Rating nuclear energy industry: Percent 100 55 50 28 6 9 0 Poor Not so good Pretty good Excellent "Not sure" omitted NUCLEAR ENERGY INDUSTRY CONTACT TOTAL CONGRESS 34 65 Senate 19 79 House 40 59 Committee 20 80 100 50 0 50 100 No contact Had contact WHO MADE THE CONTACT? Utility CEO/ 21 17 61 Nuclear manager Washington rep 16 15 67 Plant builders 50 14 34 Plant worker 51 21 27 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Percent Not at all Once Several times Base: Had contact EFFECTIVENESS OF CONTACT Percent 100 52 50 31 11 6 0 Not Not Somewhat Very sure effective effective effective Base: Had contact GETTING INFORMATION TO CONGRESS Ways to improve: More personal contact 24 More briefings 12 More information/ 11 greater detail More credible/accurate 8 Improve public standing 8 Regular newsletter 7 Better lobbyists 6 Timely information 5 Opponents concerns 4 Brief communications 4 0 5 10 15 20 25 Percent Volunteered FAMILIARITY WITH NEAREST NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANT TOTAL CONGRESS 43 55 Senate 21 79 House 49 51 Committee 40 48 100 50 0 50 100 Not familiar Familiar SATISFACTION WITH CREDIBILITY OF PLANT INFORMATION Somewhat satisfied 38% Very satisfied 40% Not Not sure 7% satisfied 15% Base: "Very" or "somewhat" familiar NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANT VISIT Percent 100 56 44 50 0 TOTAL CONGRESS TOTAL CONGRESS 1988 1990 NUCLEAR PLANT OPERATIONS How well informed? Percent 100 67 66 56 51 50 34 31 15 11 0 TOTAL CONGRESS TOTAL CONGRESS 1988 1990 Not well Fairly well Very well NUCLEAR PLANT OPERATIONS How well informed? Percent 100 61 61 51 50 24 20 15 O Total Contact Visited Utility CEO plant Fairly well Very well NUCLEAR PLANT OPERATIONS Level of familiarity: Fuel handling/ 57 12 69 waste disposal Emergency planning 48 11 59 Plant licensing 48 10 58 License renewal 45 7 52 Plant maintenance 34 6 40 Drug/alcohol testing 33 7 40 Decommissioning 30 7 37 Training programs 25 6 31 0 50 100 Percent Fairly well Very well Total informed NUCLEAR ENERGY Favor or oppose? TOTAL CONGRESS 1988 16 77 TOTAL CONGRESS 1990 15 77 100 50 0 50 100 Oppose Favor "Not sure" omitted 1 NUCLEAR ENERGY Favor or oppose? Total 15 77 Contact Utility CEO 13 81 Visited plant 10 84 100 50 0 50 100 Oppose Favor "Not sure" omitted 1 CHANGE IN FAVORABILITY TOWARD NUCLEAR ENERGY More favorable 33% Oppose 15% Favor 77% Not sure Same 8% 38% Less favorable FAVOR OR 6% OPPOSE? CHANGE IN FAVORABILITY LEVEL OF OPPOSITION TOWARD NUCLEAR ENERGY Stronger Not sure 5% 8% Oppose 15% Favor Same 77% 7% Milder 3% FAVOR OR OPPOSE? CHANGE IN OPPOSITION NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANTS Rating the safety: Very safe 32% 85% 72% Safe Somewhat 53% safe Not safe 12% 19% Not safe 1988 1990 "Not sure" omitted IS PLANT SAFETY IMPROVING? Yes 67 No 18 Not sure 15 0 50 100 Percent ORDER PLANT BY 1995 Do you support goal? Percent 100 55 50 22 23 0 Not sure No Yes ORDER PLANT BY 1995 Support the goal: Percent 100 63 60 55 50 0 Total Contact utility CEO Visited plant LIKELIHOOD OF BUILDING PLANT IN NEXT 10 YEARS Percent 100 75 43 46 42 50 30 23 25 11 0 1988 Total Congress 1990 Total Congress Not likely Somewhat likely Very likely "Not sure" omitted June "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: REQUEST FOR MEETING DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120662 FROM: MINGAY, Don: ATOMIC ENERGY CORP. OF SOUTH AFRICA LIMITED TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 02/20/91 SUBJECT: REQUEST TO SCHEDULE A ONE HOUR MEETING TO DISCUSS THE ISSUES CONFRONTING OSTP AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLLABORATION OF U.S. AND S. AFRICAN INSTITUTIONS. ASSIGNED TO: D. Allan Bromley ACTION REQUIRED: AS NECESSARY N SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: 03/20/91 DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: Thomas Ratchford Dr. Wong WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: 6/24/91 DAB met! MN P-Physical Sciences- DATE RECEIVED: 03/06/91 FILE: INTERNATIONAL*ENERGY Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa Limited PO Box 582 Pretoria 0001 Telephone: (012) 316-4911 RECEIVED AECAEK 91 MAR 6 P2: 51 OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR REFERENCE : ENQUIRIES : D W MINGAY TEL. NO. : (012) 316-5853 DATE : 1991-02-20 Prof D A Bromley Scientific Advisor to the President White House Washington, D.C. USA Dear Allan, The bi-annual ICENES Conference (Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems) will be held in Monterey under the aegis of LLNL from 16 to 21 June this year. I have been fortunate enough to have received funding to attend this meeting. As a result, the opportunity arises to detour slightly from the straight and narrow and stop-over in Washington for example. Is there any chance that you might be able to find an odd hour on Friday 14 or Saturday 15 June or else on Sunday 23 or Monday 24 June when I could have a chat with you. I am very aware of the fact that your time is anything but your own these hectic days, but there is no success without trying. It would be fascinating to meet you in your new environment and follow up on discussions which ended last time recognising only a few of the demands on time that such a position would make on you and on your health. Every photograph associated with reporting shows that you seem to have thrived on these demands. I trust that this is the case and that you are indeed keeping well and fit. I recognise also that many overnight shifts on accelerators tends to prepare one better for long hour demands but still, anno domini creeps in as well as avoirdupois! Allan, this is a long shot that you might (a) be in Washington at this time and (b) might be able to accommodate an hour or so for me. Should the hour be available somewhere else, I would happily try to modify my flight schedule to get there. I am holding thumbs. My position has changed and I head up four programs under the group title of Energy Systems which include the 20 MW research reactor, the reactor theory group (which inter alia do Koeberg Reload Design and Safety Analysis), Material Technology which includes surface physics and a large hot cell complex for complete destructive and non-destructive testing of reactor fuel elements, surveilllance samples etc, the van de Graaff and the tokamak based plasma physics group. It is a challenge, operating on diminishing budget, drastic Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 02. Letter To: Allan Bromley From: Don Mingay 2/20/91 (b)(6) Re: Request for meeting [personal information redacted] (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP) Series: Bromley, D. Allan, Files Subseries: General Science Files WHORM Cat.: File Location: Physical Science: Energy [2 of 2] [1991] Date Closed: 3/29/2010 OA/ID Number: 62043-005 FOIA/SYS Case #: 2005-0336-F Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. 2 staff reductions and having to earn a growing component of our income from external contracts. There are however excellent challenges and, as such, opportunities, but not without heartache and sadness (we have reduced our personnel by 47% over the past 3 years and the end is not yet in sight). (b)(6) I would be fascinated to hear about any of the many issues that have confronted you and in particular your feelings about possible collaboration in future of U.S.A. with South African Institutions, following the final demise of Apartheid which is not far away. There is much to be said. All best wishes to you, Sincerely Don Don Mingay SENIOR PROGRAM MANAGER: ENERGY SYSTEMS Bush Library Photocopy 27-MAY-91 MON 16:17 AEC: ENERGY SYSTEMS Atoomenergiekorporasie van Suid-Afrika E Dr. Mingay is on your schedule Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa on June 24 at 2:00pm, and I will call him re details (see Poebus 582 Pretoria 0001 PO Box 582 Pretoria 0001 Next to last paragraph. Marian Faksnommer: Fax number: (012) 316-5925 Indien al die bladsye nie bevredigend ontvang is nie, skakel asseblief (I If all the pages are not satisfactorily received, please phone (012) Verwysingsnommer: Datum: Reference number: - Date: Anange totapi fme hum 10 Army Aan: Prof. DA Bromley Faksnommer To: Fax number: Vir aandag: Getal bladsye (dekbladsy ingesturt): For attention: Number of pages (including cover page): Van: Telefoonnommer: From: Dr Don Mingay Telephone number: (012) 316-5853 Boodskap: Message: Prof D A Bromley, 1991-05-24 Scientific Advisor to the President, Office for Science and Technology Policy White House Washington D.C. Dear Allan, We have been through a rather busy period of. late and my apologies for not having reported back sooner following my cry for help relating to the visa application by Lance Vogel. His trip was a great success and he feeds back to me that we are actually doing well in maintaing a small but viable forefront effort in developing new fast nodal-method calculational skills for 3-D analyses for core and reflector which are now required. The USA appears to be rather stagnant. in their general nuclear reactor theory inactivity. I do however recognise, that when the USA revs up its actions, it simply powers past small operators like ourselves. However, in the meantime, it is good to have comments indicating a bit of envy from the USA colleagues that we are progressing in our small way. He had a splendid trip and interacted well at Penn State and Lawrence Berkeley where he gave talks, and came back with a new lease of life. Again, my thanks for your support and action. My trip rears its head and I have planned to fly in to Washington late on Sunday night. I will therefore be available all of Monday and fly out late on Tuesday afternoon on my way home. I mention this simply since I recognise that your schedule is obviously full and should you find an alternative time to Monday at 2 p.m. as preferable, I will be available to respond to any short term optimisation. On this point however, please ask Marian to let me know exactly where and when I should present myself to gain access to an office which is not just down the WNSL corridor! As contact. before, I look forward tremendously to this trip and re-establishing All very best wishes, Sincerely "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120360 FROM: BUCKMAN, FREDERICK W. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 02/05/91 SUBJECT: NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY-CONSUMERS POWER'S SUPPORT FOR THE MODULAR HIGH TEMPORATURE GAS-COLLED REACTOR BEING A HIGH PRIORITY ELEMENT OF THIS REVIVAL EFFORT ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: Dr. Wong D. Allan Bromley WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P. Physical Sciences - DATE RECEIVED: 02/11/91 FILE: NUCLEAR ENERGY 9120360 Consumers RECEIVED Power Frederick W. Buckman President and POWERING 91FEB 11 P12: 16 Chief Operating Officer MICHIGAN'S PROGRESS General Offices: 212 West Michigan Avenue, Jackson, MI 49201 (517) 788-1111 February 5, 1991 OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR Dr. D. Allen Bromley, Director Science & Technology Policy White House Office of Science & Technology OEOB 360 17th & Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Dr. Bromley: As the Nation prepares to enter the 21st century, we are increasingly confronted with global competition for energy resources as well as a rising tide of domestic awareness of the environmental, social and economic consequences associated with the available energy supply options. Perhaps at no other time in our history has the need for a National Energy Strategy been so important to our economic health. The revival of the nuclear option is a most challenging element of our National Energy Strategy. The purpose of my letter is to reiterate our support for the Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) being a high priority element of this revival effort. We have evaluated the MHTGR as a future option on our system and view it to be most attractive. While generic issues of regulatory reform, waste disposal and broad public support plus our current internal financial limitations prevent us from aggressively pursuing the MHTGR in the near-term, we are hopeful that this technology becomes a realistic alternative in our long-term strategy to provide safe, economic, environmentally responsible energy to our Michigan customers. A CMS ENERGY COMPANY 2 February 5, 1991 Dr. D. Allen Bromley In the interim, we urge that the Government maintain a stable, commercial MHTGR Program and give careful consideration to deploying a close variant of the commercial MHTGR design as a New Production Reactor. With maximum commonality and close cooperation between the two programs, the commercial MHTGR can be deployed for a modest, incremental effort. If you would like to discuss this matter further, please do not hesitate to call. Sincerely, Reduck Washing FWB/dl "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: ACTION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120382 FROM: MEYER, JAMES TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 02/02/91 SUBJECT: ELECTRICAL POWER FROM SEA-WATER FOR THE WORLD ENERGY SUPPLY. ASSIGNED TO: Dr. Wong ACTION REQUIRED: DIRECT RESPONSE SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: 2/14/91 by EW COPIES TO: WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: Kook letter - shinldrot be aswerd letta" mlss singly " that you for you P-Physical Sciences - DATE RECEIVED: 02/13/91 FILE: ENERGY EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 February 14, 1991 Dear Mr. Meyer: Thank you for your interesting letter to our office. We are unable to comment on "the merits or stupidity" of your proposal because we have no expertise in this area. Perhaps you should try your idea on an electrochemist to test its feasibility. Good luck! Sincerely yours, Associate Eugene Wong wing Director for Physical Sciences and Engineering Mr. James Meyer 351 Grafton Street San Francisco, California 94112 NATIONAL SCIENCE ADUISOR FEB 2,1991 WHITE HOUSE EXECUTIVE OFFICES 9120382 WASH, DE 20508 DEAR NATIONAL SCIENCE ADUISOR, 1 AM WRITING REGOARDING WHERE is BEST TO INVEST SCIENCE ASSETS. THE PROPOSED SUPERCOLIDER SHOULD NOT BE BUILT BECAUSE NO NEW DATA WILL COME OUT OF IT. HIGHER ENERGY COLISIONS BETWER 2 PARTICLES WILL STILL BE PRODUCING PHOTONS AND PROTONS. TEN BILLION DOLLARS MORE WILL NOT SHOW ANY OTHER RESULT so WHY NOT SPEND THE MONEY ELSEWHERE? SUPERFICIAL STUDIES I'VE DONE CONVINCE ME THAT ELECTRONIC CIRCUITS CAN BE DESIGNED TO PRODUCE ELECTRIC POWER FROM SERWATER. THESE CIRCUITS USE GALUANIC FORCES THAT OCCUR WHENEVER TWO CONDUCTORS OF DIFFERENT MATERIAL SUCH AS IRON AND ALUMINIUM CONTACT MOISTURE. 1 AM CONVINCED IN THE OCEAN THIS PROCESS COULD SUPPLY ALL THE ENERGY THE WORLD COULD EVER USE AND NOT POLUTION WOULD RESULT. WHAT 15 NEEDED is A DEVISE TO COLLECT THE FORCE IN USEFUL AMMOUNTS THE VAST NUMBERS INVOLVED NEED TO BE EXPLORED AND UNDERSTOOD. BUT, IT 15 NOT TOO DIFFUCULT TO SEE HOW A CIRCUIT COUND BE OPERATED WSING KNOWN FACTS ABOUT THERMAL ELECTRIC AND ELECTROCHENICAL PROCESSES. ONE CHARGE AT A TIME WOULD COLLECT TO BE HARUESTED. SINCE WELL OVER FIFTY WATTS OF POWER ARE AUAILABLE PER POUND OF SEAWATER IT is EASY TO SEE THE POTENTIAL HERE. THIS SOURCE is IN FACT GREATER THAN FUSION AND EASIER THAN PEDELING A BIKE. ONE OF I MAY BE WRONG BUT WHY NOT TAKE A LOOK ATVTHE ONLY KNOWN FORCES THAT EXISTS; THE CHARGE THAT MAKES RUST, CAUSES CHEMICAL CHANGE, AND is AVAILABLE EVERYWNERE-SOME SOURCES BEING EASIER TO TAP THAN OTHERS. THE REMOVAL OF CHARGE FROM SEAWATER CAN BE USED TO FREEZE OUT OF SOLUTION PURE WATER. REMOVING FIFTY WATTS OF CHARGE CAN CAUSE ONE POUND OF WATER TO FREEZE IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST. so, NOT ONLY is POWER AVAILABLE BUT FRESH WATER, ALSO, PLEASE COMMENT ON THE MERITS OR STUPIDATY OF THIS PROPOSAL. THANK YOU, James Manager JAMES MEYER 351 GRAFTON ST DIRECTOR 341 -10 SAN FRANCISCO ,CA 94112 21 : 6V EI RECEIVED "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: INFORMATION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120327 FROM: WOLF, JAMES L. AND ALDEN MEYER TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 01/31/91 SUBJECT: A NATURAL ENERGY STRATEGY POLL. ASSIGNED TO: ACTION REQUIRED: SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: Dr. Wong D. Allan Bromley WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P. PHYSICAL SCIENCES- DATE RECEIVED: 02/04/91 FILE: ENERGY 9120327 1725 K Street, N.W. The ALLIANCE Suite 914 Washington, D.C. 20006-1401 A To Save Energy RECEIVED Board of Directors January 31, 1991 DIFEB 4 All 01 Chairman Senator Timothy E. Wirth Co-chairman The Honorable D. Allan Bromley Senator James M. Jeffords Assistant to the President for Science & Technology OFFICE OF THE Founding Chairman Old Executive Office Building DIRECTOR Charles H. Percy 17th and Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Past Chairmen Senator John Heinz Washington, DC 20506 Daniel J. Evans Treasurer Dear Dr. Bromley: Thomas P. Dickerson General Partner Tullis-Dickerson & Co., Inc. As you consider what policies to include in a national energy strategy, we want you to be aware of the results of a recent national poll sponsored by the Alliance William A. Nitze President To Save Energy and the Union of Concerned Scientists concerning voters' James L. Wolf preference for different strategies. Public support, as Admiral Watkins has Executive Director stated, will be necessary for any set of policies to be enacted. Norman R. Augustine Chairman and CEO The results of the poll are conclusive: the public overwhelmingly favors policies Martin Marietta Corporation promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy. As detailed in the enclosed Joseph A. Califano, Jr. poll: Managing Partner Dewey. Ballantine, Bushby Palmer and Wood By a margin of 76 percent to 21 percent, Americans believe that to meet Edward J. Carlough our energy needs we should reduce demand and use energy more efficiently General President Sheet Metal Workers' International rather than opening oil drilling off our coasts and in wilderness areas. Association John W. Ellis 80 percent of Americans favor raising federal fuel efficiency standards for Chairman and CEO Puget Sound Power & Light Company automobiles from the present 27.5 mpg to 40 mpg by the year 2000. Robert K. Gray Chairman and CEO 69 percent of voters believe that the United States should join other Hill and Knowlton Public Affairs Worldwide industrialized countries in fighting global warming by committing to limit the Thomas R. Kuhn amount of carbon dioxide emissions from the U.S. President Edison Electric Institute 91 percent of Americans favor legislation to require new homes financed George H. Lawrence President by FHA or VA mortgages to meet strict energy efficiency standards American Gas Association Mildred B. McCauley 75 percent of the people would give renewable energy the largest or next Member Board of Directors American Association of Retired Persons largest share of the Department of Energy's R&D budget, and energy Richard L. McGraw conservation is their second priority. Vice President of Corporate Affairs COMSAT Corporation These findings, and many others in the enclosed poll, form the basis of the David 0. Maxwell Chairman and CEO principles and policies of a national energy strategy based upon energy Fannie Mae efficiency and renewable energy sources. We hope you will endorse such Frank H. Pearl Chairman policies. American voters clearly would reject a national energy strategy that Rappahannock Investment Company does not incorporate these. Russell W. Peterson President Emeritus If you have any questions concerning the poll, you may call either one of us, or National Audubon Society the pollsters who conducted it. W.T. Stephens Chairman and CEO Manville Corporation Yours truly, Robert B. Stobaugh Charles Edward Wilson Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School James Executive Junes L. Wolf Director well Allen Meyer W. Roger Strelow Vice President Alden Meyer Bechtel Environmental, Inc. Director, Energy and Stephen Wiel Alliance To Save Energy Climate Change Program Commissioner, State of Nevada Union of Concerned Scientists Public Service Commission "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" 9160020 TYPE: ACTION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120120 FROM: WATKINS, JAMES D. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: SUBJECT: THE NAT'L CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES REPORT FOR THE PRESIDENT TO SEND TO CONGRESS ASSIGNED TO: D. Allan Bromley bark ACTION REQUIRED: AS NECESSARY SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: Physical Sciences - DATE RECEIVED: 01/23/91 FILE: ENERGY NCT REPORT THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 29, 1991 Dear Jim: Thank you for your letter of January 23 regarding the National Critical Technologies report. For a variety of reasons, the government/private sector panel enlisted to identify "national critical technologies" got off to a slower start than I had hoped. The study now appears to be on track and I expect to have the report in the hands of the President in February and to the Congress in March. We have had excellent cooperation from a number of agency personnel during the course of this study including, prominently, Everet Beckner and others from the Department of Energy. As a result of this input, we expect the report to have major impact. Sincerely, Allan D. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President for Science and Technology Admiral James D. Watkins, U.S. Navy (Retired) The Secretary of Energy Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 20 RIMENT OF DEPA VOIDEINE STATES OF The Secretary of Energy Washington, DC 20585 CEIVED January 23, 1991 91 JAN 24 A 9 : 49 OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR The Honorable D. Allan Bromley Assistant to the President for Science and Technology Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy The White House Washington, D.C 20500 Dear Dr. Bromley: This Department is working with the Office of Science and Technology Policy to produce the National Critical Technologies (NCT) Report for the President to send to Congress, as mandated. At your request, I assigned Under Secretary John Tuck to serve on the NCT Advisory Panel. I have been following the activities of the Panel and, quite frankly, I am disappointed to find that not only is the Report running very late in its preparation, but it is also suffering from serious technical weakness in many areas of interest to DOE. Mr. Tuck has found it necessary to assign many sections of the Report for rework by experts from the DOE staff and from the Laboratories. Due to the importance of this work, I hope that the other panel members are responding similarly. Sincerely, James D. Watkins Admiral, U.S. Navy (Retired) "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: ACTION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120230 FROM: MAYER, FREDERICK J. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 01/21/91 SUBJECT: NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIELD OF NUCLEAR ENERGY ASSIGNED TO: Dr. Wong ACTION REQUIRED: AS APPROPRIATE SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: 2/6/91 by KAE COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P-Physical Sciences - DATE RECEIVED: 01/29/91 FILE: INFORMATION ENERGY 9120230 1417 Dicken Drive FJM APPLYING PHYSICS TO INDUSTRY Ann Arbor, MI 48103 ASSOCIATES 313/663-0627 RECEIVED January 21, 1991 91.1AN 29 A9: : 24 Dr. Allen D. Bromley, Science Advisor to the President Executive Office of the President OFFICE OF THE Office of Science and Technology Policy DIRECTOR Room 360, Old Executive Office Building Washington, D. C. 20506 Dear Dr. Bromley: Since we have not met, I should mention that I am a plasma physicist and I have been involved for over 20 years in both magnetic and inertial fusion. I am writing this letter to inform you of a potentially important new development in the field of nuclear energy. As I know that nuclear physics has been one area of interest for you for some time, I wanted to let you know of this development before the "noise- level" increases. To get to the point, I and a colleague (Dr. John R. Reitz) now believe that we have understood the "strange" and apparently nuclear observations of the now-numerous, but not yet reproducible, experiments called (incorrectly) "cold fusion", and the more recent experiments called (correctly) cluster impact fusion. We describe our results that explains the "cold fusion" observations in a paper (to be published in May) that is entitled "Nuclear Energy Release in Metals"; it also suggests straightforward tests of our theory. In addition, we have completed a second overarching paper ("On Very- Low Energy Nuclear Reactions") that describes the physics of the cluster impact fusion experiments and its connection to "cold fusion" and other anomalous experiments having nuclear observations that have surfaced recently. I wanted to inform you of these results, because it does now appear to us that a new and significant 1 source of nuclear energy will become available to us. I hasten to add that we are, of course, quite aware of the physics communities incredulity regarding such observations, and the negative atmosphere surrounding them, however, there is, in our opinion, some exciting new nuclear physics here, which can be both simply understood and very usefully employed. I am writing to let you know of these results early on, so that, if there are specific people we should talking to (and are not), we would like to know about them. We are presently involved in a collaboration with Naval Research Laboratory in this area. Finally, I would be happy to brief you or some of your colleagues on these matters if you so wish. Please let me know. Respectfully yours, Freduich FrederichJ.Maya Maya Frederick J. Mayer, PhD President 2 EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 February 6, 1991 Dear Dr. Mayer: Thank you for writing to Dr. Bromley about your paper, "Nuclear Energy Release in Metals." As nuclear physicists, Dr. Bromley and I both have followed the developments in what has been termed "cold fusion" with interest and, perhaps, a touch of incredulity. I would appreciate your sending me a preprint of your paper so that I can get some idea of the physics, chemistry, or whatever, that you associate with the measurements. Sincerely, Karl A. Erb Assistant Director for Physical Sciences and Engineering Dr. Frederick J. Mayer President FJM Associates 1417 Dicken Drive Ann Arbor, Michigan 48103 "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: ACTION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120170 FROM: WEST, HENRY S. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 01/16/91 SUBJECT: CONTROLLING THE VOLTAGE OF LIGHTENING FOR ENERGY ASSIGNED TO: Dr. Wong Dan Pryor to respond to M- west ACTION REQUIRED: AS NECESSARY SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: 3/1/91 by 1 Pryor COPIES TO: Der- would you take WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERS care of this and REMARKS: (ie respond) planse? sally will type you No pose & log He star out of our quene thales Kal Physical Sciences DATE RECEIVED: 01/19/91 FILE: ENERGY 9/20/70 Menry S. West 7819 Reservoir Road Port Edward, N.Y. 12828 October 18, 1976 Science Advisor to: The President of the United States Washington, D.C. Re: Energy Potential Dear Sir: I have a theory, which if proved to be correct, could provide us with an unlimited source of energy. In the June issue of science Bigest on pages 22 and 23 there is an article entitled, "Lightning Demystified." Accord- ing to this article the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- istration, while flying through 300 electrical storms, have deter- mined cloud formations and conditions and temperature variations necessary to produce electrification. The voltave measured at the start of electrification was 1000 volts per meter, during electrification voltage was measured at 240,000 volts per meter. Knowing this, would not the next step be to find a sub- stance formed that is better than clouds and placed in a compact, inclosed container. My idea is not to make lightning but to con- trole the voltage between 1000 volts and 240,000 so that there would be a continuous flow of current. The amperage in lightning, according to the Encyclopaedia Britannica, has been measured at 100,000 amps. by using a nonlin- ear resistance shunt. I can visualize where this type of energy would create problems. It would drain off electrons and protons from the immediate area and internupt radio transmission and stop con- ventional motors. Therefor any power plant would have to be placed in a remote section. I can also visualize where this same energy could be used for spacecrft inftreefabhrefuture. Please forward this letter to the proper agency for consideration and please acknowledge this letter. This may seem like a wild scheme, but so was the harnesing ing of electricity a comparatively short time ago. Respectfully yours, Henry S. West Bush Preservation Library Photocopy EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 February 27, 1991 Mr. Henry S. West 7819 Reservoir Road Fort Edward, N.Y. 12828 Dear Mr. West: Thank you for your letter to Dr. Bromley which was recently received although it was apparently written several years ago. I trust the delay was not in our mail system. Harnessing atmospheric phenomena such as the aurora and lightning have been considered as power sources. The energy available, however, is quite limited and unreliable. In addition, there would be considerable engineering challenges to overcome and environmental concerns to address. Nonetheless, as you point out, we do need creative thinking such as yours in order to produce innovative alternative energy sources. Sincerely, Donald Puyer Donald Pryor "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: ACTION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120228 FROM: JACKSON, J. DAVID TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 01/14/91 SUBJECT: AN ENERGY POLICY FOR THE U.S. IN LIGHT OF THE PERSIAN GULF CONFLICT. ASSIGNED TO: Dr. Wong ACTION REQUIRED: FOR DAB SIGNATURE SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: DATE COMPLETED: 3/18/91 by Don Pryor COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley 3/15 WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT Daway Donfed mor REMARKS: this Sall and P-Physical Sciences 3 the $:1/20 DATE RECEIVED: 01/19/91 FILE: ENERGY PERSEN CULR 9120228 430 Vermont Avenue Berkeley California 94707-1742 14 January 1991 Dr. D. Allan Bromley Science & Technology Assistant to the President Old Executive Office Building Washington, D.C. 20506 Dear Allan, I am writing on the eve of armed conflict in the Persian Gulf about the urgent need for a sensible energy policy for the U.S. Whatever the duration or outcome of the crisis over Kuwait, the Gulf region will occupy our attention and demand massive commitment for many years to come. The situation in that part of the world, with its oil resources, its extremes of wealth and poverty, its religious and nationalistic fanaticism, is, and is likely to remain, a powder keg. It may be naive to suggest that the U.S. can have any moderating influence for productive change, but that is why I write. Our profligate use of energy (a steady-state average per capita consumption of energy of all forms of 11 kW !) has led us to dependence of the Gulf's oil and, in large part, to our military involvement there today. A serious, long-term strategy for energy self- sufficiency by, say, 2005 A.D. could be the linchpin in a policy that would bring positive changes in the Persian Gulf region and the whole Mideast. An announced and implemented campaign with a realistic time-table would have an influence on the thinking of the oil sheikdoms and Iraq and Iran. The prospect of eventual loss of a major market for their oil would, I hope, focus their minds and make them all amenable to suggestion. Foreign policy objectives consonant with such a energy policy are fairly obvious mutual down-scaling of armaments in the region, settlement of the Palestinian issue, movement away from hereditary or dictatorial rule, and opening of the societies to individual freedoms and some form of participative democracy (These last can be done within the framework of religious mores if the fanaticism is eliminated.). I am prompted to write to you because of the newspaper reports in the past month of the "gutting by the White House Staff" of the report by Watkins's task force on a new energy policy. The NY Times quoted one White House staffer as saying that, in the long run, free enterprise is the best solution. While I gather that the report may have been more of a laundry list of possible options than a coherent policy, I find it less than reassuring for that long run to read of such a cavalier attitude in the White House. Perhaps you will tell me it is not true. In any event, I urge you to devote your energies to persuading the Administration to put forward a far-reaching strategy for energy self-sufficiency by early in the next century, if not before. Nothing could be more important. I look forward to seeing you at the end of April when we both sign the Register of new Members of the N. A. S. With best wishes, I am Yours have sincerely, J. David Jackson EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 March 18, 1991 Dear Dr. Dave Tackson: Thank you for your letter of January 14 on energy policy. Now that the National Energy Strategy has been released, I hope that the public debate can be focused on issues rather than sketchy and misleading stories about the process of its development. Thankfully, prospects are that this discussion will go on much longer than did the war in the Gulf. As you point out, there is ample opportunity for conservation in this country, and there should be ample incentive. Pointing out that energy use amounts to a steady- state average of 11 kW per capita is a dramatic statement of the room for improvement. Steady progress has been made in reducing energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of GNP) -- more than 28 percent reduction between 1972 and 1989. Economists insist that the steady pace, despite volatility in costs, indicate that the market is not elastic and that neither energy taxes nor regulations would be very efficient. People need to be educated about energy use and today's options and we need to develop more efficient technology for tomorrow. The Strategy bears the unmistakable imprint of the approach taken by Admiral Watkins. What it may lack in coherency, it may make up in balance, flexibility and realism. A great deal of useful analysis has been done in the course of this work. The Nation is in a much better position to understand its energy needs. The Strategy does promise to avoid increasing our dependence on imported oil. It promises to protect our environment. It proposes to expand domestic supplies of oil, gas, coal, nuclear and renewable power. It proposes to encourage conservation and increase efficiency. It recognizes the important role of research and development. Reaching consensus on energy policy, implementing it and carrying it out are among my highest priorities. I, too, look forward to our meeting at the National Academy of Sciences in April. Sincerely yours, Damu D. Allan Bromley 50mley Director Dr. J. David Jackson 430 Vermont Avenue Berkeley, California 94707-1742 "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: ACTION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120203 FROM: HALL, DARWIN C. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 01/02/91 SUBJECT: CONTEMPORARY POLICY ISSUES (THE UNCERTAINTY OF COSTS DUE TO POLICIES TO REDUCE CO2) ASSIGNED TO: Dr. Wong ACTION REQUIRED: DIRECT REPLY SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: 02/08/91 DATE COMPLETED: 2/6/91 by KEE COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: P-Physical Sciences - DATE RECEIVED: 01/19/91 FILE: ENERGY "CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING" TYPE: ACTION DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9120203 FROM: HALL, DARWIN C. TO: DR. BROMLEY DATE OF CORRESPONDENCE: 01/02/91 SUBJECT: CONTEMPORARY POLICY ISSUES (THE UNCERTAINTY OF COSTS DUE TO POLICIES TO REDUCE CO2) ASSIGNED TO: Nancy Maynard ACTION REQUIRED: DIRECT REPLY SENDER'S DUE DATE: OSTP DUE DATE: 02/08/91 DATE COMPLETED: COPIES TO: D. Allan Bromley WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #: CONTACT PERSON: REMARKS: No Action reg'd, they are just offering a free copy of a report WIB 3/26/91 P-Physical Sciences DATE RECEIVED: 01/19/91 FILE: ENERGY EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 February 6, 1991 Dear Dr. Hall: Thank you for sending reprints of two of your recent articles on energy technologies to Dr. Bromley. They were referred to me, and I read them with interest - especially in view of my current preoccupation with related issues on behalf of OSTP. I might offer just one or two comments on your relative cost tables. It is our hope and expectation that at least some technologies will make significant gains in relative cost effectiveness in the future, either as a result of R&D or for other reasons. Secondly, I was interested to read in the January issue of Mechanical Engineering that the cost of producing nuclear power in France will fall to 0.22 francs per kilowatt-hour in the 1990s, significantly below the estimate of 0.28 francs per kilowatt- hour produced by a desulfurized coal plant. Sincerely, Karl Ab Karl A. Erb Assistant Director for Physical Sciences and Engineering Professor Darwin C. Hall Editorial Office Department of Economics California State University 1250 Bellflower Boulevard Long Beach, California 90840-4607 9/20203 Contemporary Editorial Office Policy Issues Department of Economics California State University A journal of Long Beach Western Economic Association International Editor Coeditors Eldon J. Dvorak Alejandra C. Edwards CSU, Long Beach CSU, Long Beach January 2, 1991 Darwin C. Hall CSU, Long Beach Dr. D. Allan Bromley Robert J. Michaels CSU, Fullerton Assistant to the President for Science and Technology Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy The White House Washington D.C. 20503 Dear Dr. Bromley: I read with interest your essay, "The Making of a Greenhouse Policy,' Issues in Science and Technology, V.7, N.1, Fall 1990. You rightly focused on the uncertainty of costs due to policies to reduce CO2. My own articles, presented at the 64th Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International, have something to add on that aspect of CO2 policy. I enclose reprints: "Preliminary Estimates of Cumulative Private and External Costs of Energy," Contemporary Policy Issues, V.8, N.3, July 1990, pp. 283- 307. Amy L. Walton and Darwin C. Hall, "Solar Power,' Contemporary Policy Issues, V.8, N.3, July 1990, pp. 240-254. These two articles are part of an entire special edition devoted to the economic issues involved. I enclose a brochure describing this edition. I invite you to request from me a complimentary copy. Sincerely, Drawn ( Hall Darwin C. Hall Coeditor and Professor 1250 Bellflower Boulevard, Long Beach, California 90840-4607 (213) 985-5069; FAX (213) 985-8887