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EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFF CE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLIC
Science and
Technology
A REPORT TO THE CONGRESS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
For Immediate Release
March 17, 1992
TO THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES:
I am very pleased to submit the Science and Technology Report and
Outlook: 1989-1990 as required by the National Science and Technology Policy,
Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976 (42 U.S.C. 6615).
The report reinforces and highlights that strong and vigorous support for
our Nation's science and technology has been one of the central policies of this
Administration. In addition to providing a general record of accomplishments, the
report also suggests a number of possibilities in the form of an outlook for the
future in key areas of science and technology.
The Federal Government's science- and technology-related activities sup-
port our Nation's quest to ensure a high quality of life for current citizens and
future generations by meeting national needs, investing for the future, exploring
intellectual, social, and physical frontiers, building on the fundamentally interna-
tional character of science and technology, and strengthening math and science
education.
The various chapters illuminate selected areas essential for meeting
national needs. There is a focus on international competitive advantage, national
security, global environmental needs, foreign policy, biotechnology, and informa-
tion technology. Each chapter describes the area's key features, its policy rele-
vance, and major components for which detailed strategies, policies, programs,
and budgets have been or are being designed and implemented.
Science, as Vannevar Bush pointed out nearly half a century ago, is an
endless frontier. Exploiting the opportunities in science and technology and secur-
ing their benefits to the United States require policies that are forward-looking
and reflect a rapidly evolving world. This Administration also believes that these
objectives require vigorous initiatives in the private sector, continued excellence
in academic research, and sustained progress in education.
In many ways, investment in science and technology reflects a deep-
seated American belief in the possibility of a better future. With concerted action,
that future-that endless frontier-lies within our reach.
GEORGE BUSH
THE WHITE HOUSE
March 17, 1992
Science and Technology
A Report to the Congress
ix
PREFACE
X
I. PERSPECTIVES ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
3
CHAPTER 1
Building on Science and Technology
12
II. INVESTING IN THE FUTURE:
15
CHAPTER 2
Basic Research Foundation
29
CHAPTER 3
Science, Mathematics and Technology Education
42
III. MEETING THE NATION'S NEEDS THROUGH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
45
CHAPTER 4
High Performance Computing and Communications
65
CHAPTER 5
Life Sciences and Biotechnology
81
CHAPTER 6
Science, Technology and National Security
91
CHAPTER 7
Science, Technology and Foreign Policy
103
CHAPTER 8
Science, Technology and Competitiveness
117
CHAPTER 9
Global Change
131
Additional Readings
Preface
The Science and Technology Report and Outlook is submitted
biennially to Congress by the Office of Science and Technology
Policy in conformance with Public Law 97-375. The report is
designed to further the ongoing national dialogue about the past
contributions, current status, and future roles of science and
technology in our Nation's growth and prosperity.
In accordance with this purpose, the report highlights broad
themes and priorities in national science and technology efforts
and seeks to convey a context for their consideration. The focus
on selected topics and issues allows for the examination of re-
cent developments and possibilities for the future in a number of
exciting areas of science and technology. The report is not com-
prehensive nor is it intended to serve as a Federal R&D program
catalogue or a budget document; both of these types of informa-
tion are readily available elsewhere. To best serve as a comple-
ment to these technical budget and program documents, this
report is written to be accessible to both technical and non-tech-
nical audiences. While major coverage is for the period 1989-
1990, updated events and initiatives are included for selected
areas.
The Federal government's science- and technology-related
activities support our Nation's quest to ensure a high quality of
life for current citizens and future generations by meeting
national needs, investing for the future, exploring intellectual,
social, and physical frontiers, building on the fundamentally
international character of science and technology, and strength-
ening math and science education.
Part I of this report focuses on science and technology's role in
society and how science and technology are shaping and being
shaped by current events.
Part II examines the critical role of science and technology in
enabling the Nation's future well-being and prosperity. The two
areas of focus are the Nation's investment in basic research and
the importance of educating our Nation's youth.
Part III illuminates several priority areas essential for meeting
national needs. Chapters focus on information technology,
biotechnology, national security, foreign policy, international
competitive advantage, and global environmental needs. Each
chapter describes the area's key features, its policy relevance,
and major components for which detailed strategies, policies,
programs and budgets have been or are being designed and
implemented.
ix
Perspectives
on
Science and Technology
Investing
in
the Future
26
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
most important, they develop the self-confidence that allows
them to attack the broad unstructured problems that are typical
of those of greatest national importance.
Nourishing and strengthening the ties between research and
education within colleges and universities is therefore a crucial
part of any effort to improve national capabilities in science and
technology. It is a task that grows more critical as the demand
for scientists and engineers expands worldwide.
All students benefit from some exposure to high quality
research. Since about half of the undergraduate students in the
U.S. receive their college education within fifty miles of their
home, all institutions of higher learning ideally would have first-
rate research programs. Such a goal would require that re-
search resources, now concentrated in the top research universi-
ties where cutting-edge R&D is performed, also be provided to a
substantial number of other institutions. Such a trade-off again
requires decision makers to balance competing opportunities,
and emerging institutions must carefully select areas where they
have the potential of achieving world-class excellence.
INTERNATIONALIZATION OF SCIENCE
International cooperation in science always has existed at the
researcher level. This cooperation has led to the development of
one of the most efficiently functioning of international markets,
the market of ideas.
As the tools needed for advancing the frontiers in areas such
as high energy physics and astronomy have become more and
more expensive, the world is increasingly aware of the impor-
tance of cooperating more formally on related research projects.
In high energy physics, for example, it is a more efficient use of
resources for nations to join together to build one extremely high
energy collider, at which scientists from all nations can work,
than it is for each nation to attempt to replicate the effort on its
own. By joining together to fund projects such as the Super-con-
ducting Super Collider (SSC), nations can, with the same
resources, obtain the tools needed to advance the frontiers in a
number of fields of science rather than in only one. Unlike some
other forms of international exchange, genuine cooperation in
science and technology benefits all participants. As has been
said, "Science is the rising tide that raises all ships."
The United States continues to enjoy a preeminent role as the
overall world leader in basic research. However, by focusing
their resources and efforts, other countries have moved up to
equal-and in some cases surpass this country-in narrow
27
BASIC RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
areas. This is neither surprising nor necessarily bad. What is
essential is that in those areas where U.S. activities do not define
the frontiers, U.S. researchers must be close enough to those
frontiers to exploit new discoveries rapidly and effectively wher-
ever they are made.
In recent years, the United States has not been as effective as
other nations in capturing the economic benefits from new
knowledge in the form of new products or processes. Other
countries have built on U.S. basic research, because the results
of this research are, by their very nature, public knowledge, and
progress in basic research requires an open system. The answer
to current problems is not to attempt to protect or sequester new
knowledge; rather, it is to strengthen the U.S. ability to apply
new knowledge rapidly.
While the U.S. must invest to continue as the dominant
provider of fundamental new knowledge in science and engi-
neering, it should also continue to urge other countries to con-
tribute to the growth of new knowledge to the extent of their
capabilities. Openness has long been a characteristic of U.S.
science, both basic and applied. Clearly, it has served the nation
well and should continue. As other nations begin to contribute
more extensively to the common pool of fundamental knowledge
from which all draw, however, it is important that the United
States take steps to insure a reciprocal openness, with maximum
opportunities for mutual exploitation of new results as the over-
arching goal.
All countries that benefit from basic research have a responsi-
bility to invest in the production of that research. Louis Pasteur
once said, "Science knows no country because knowledge be-
longs to humanity and is the torch which illuminates the world."
By continuing to invest in basic research, nations carry forward
that torch to the benefit of their own citizens and of all peoples.
29
32
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
34
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
and computer science classes. With decreasing enrollments in
mathematics and science at the undergraduate level, the prob-
lem is likely to get worse.
Serious concerns exist for maintaining and improving the
quality of mathematics and science teaching. Few elementary
school teachers have adequate preparation in science and
mathematics before they begin to teach these subjects. Leading
professional associations of mathematics and science educators
have established standards for course work preparation for
teachers. By their estimates, two-thirds or more of the nation's
teachers do not meet these standards (Table 1):
Table 3.1 Percentage of Teachers Meeting Preparation Standards
Science
Mathematics
Biology
Chemistry
Physics
Elementary School
33%
18%
Teachers
Middle School
22%
14%
Teachers
High School Teachers
15%
29%
31%
12%
To improve the quality of preparation and ability of teachers
to teach math, the sciences, and other subjects, the President
proposed Governors' teacher academies, to be funded in every
State. More students taking science courses will form a larger
pool of future teachers in critical scientific and technical fields.
Systemic Factors-A key element of AMERICA 2000 is the work of
the New American Schools Development Corporation (NASDC).
The NASDC is a private effort to raise $200 million to help commu-
nities create schools that will reach the National Education
Goals. The NASDC will fund R&D teams working with local com-
munities to set aside traditional assumptions about schooling
and loosen the constraints surrounding the operation of conven-
tional schools. Time, space, staffing and other resources in these
new schools may be used in new ways. Changing policies and
practices within the formal settings of schools could have signifi-
cant affects on the performance of students and on the ability of
teachers to work with them.
There is growing recognition that teachers and students indi-
vidually cannot solve all the difficulties encountered in mathe-
matics and science education, and that resources beyond the
formal settings of schools and campuses need to be exploited.
35
SCIENCE, MATHEMATICS AND TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION
Many mathematicians, scientists, and educators have advocat-
ed more direct contacts between teachers and the science com-
munity and use of hands-on learning in elementary and sec-
ondary classrooms. Yet studies indicate that little hands-on sci-
ence is taught at the elementary school level and that the
amount of hands-on assignments and student experiments has
actually declined in recent years. In secondary schools, instruc-
tion in 50 minute periods makes it impossible to do many kinds of
science experiments or to explore complex mathematical prob-
lems in detail. Restructuring efforts, applications of interactive
technologies, and alternative courses of instruction underway in
many parts of the Nation are demonstrating more effective ways
of engaging and motivating students. The Federal government
has recognized and will continue to support these State and
local reform efforts.
Competitive Work Force-If present trends in education contin-
ue, this country may not produce enough American scientists
and engineers to meet its work force needs. Large numbers of
those who entered the scientific work force after World War II
are beginning to retire, with an insufficient number of science
students progressing through the American educational system
to take their places (Figure 1). There also appears to be a lack of
technical competence among new entrants to the general work
force, with many major industrial corporations reporting that the
majority of employee applicants lack basic skills and abilities for
today's computerized work place.
White men 15%
Immigrant women 9%
White women 42%
Immigrant men 13%
Non-white men 7%
Non-white women 13%
Figure 3.1 The Changing Labor Force
Net New Workers, 1985-2000
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
36
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Low enrollments in upper level science courses are contribut-
ing to shortages of technical workers. Using 1989-90 State data,
it is estimated that 95 percent of public high school students in
the U.S. take biology by the time they graduate, but only 20 per-
cent take physics and 45 percent take chemistry. Underlying
these numbers is a growing disenchantment with science and
technology as prospective careers. Among freshmen entering
college, interest in science majors has declined by one-third
over the past two decades; interest in engineering has fallen by
a fourth since 1982; and interest in computer science has
plunged by two-thirds in just four years.
Without growth in student interest and ability in science and
technology, America's once-impressive lead in science and
engineering talent may begin to falter. Japan, for example, has
doubled its technical work force in the last two decades; with
half the population size of the United States, Japan trains almost
as many engineers each year as does the United States.
The problem of keeping students in science and mathematics
courses as they progress through the educational system is even
Number Expressing Interest in Science or Engineering
0
100
200
300
1000
1000
2000
7th Graders
1000
2000
217
1560
High School Graduates
283
1440
45
830
College Freshmen
143
900
19
440
Total Enrolled
College Graduates
44
480
4
150
Graduate Degrees
14
140
1
Women
10
Doctorate
5
Men
20
Figure 3.2 Pool of Potential Scientists and Engineers Among U.S. Students
Source: National Science Foundation
37
SCIENCE, MATHEMATICS AND TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION
greater for women and minorities. This group, together with for-
eign nationals, will comprise 85 percent of the net new entrants
into the American work force between now and the year 2000
(Figure 2) and will be called upon to replace the growing num-
ber of white male retirees. Yet these individuals have not tradi-
tionally comprised a major part of the technical work force.
Today, only 8 percent of bachelor's degrees and 4 percent of all
doctorate degrees in science and engineering are awarded to
African and Hispanic Americans. By the turn of the century,
minority students will account for more than 40 percent of the
U.S. elementary and secondary school population. Thus, it is
urgent that the Nation take steps to ensure greater participation
by these groups in the scientific and technical work force.
The AMERICA 2000 strategy, its supporting legislation, the
Administration's Job Training Partnership Act amendments and
its workplace literacy and related skill training strategies all sup-
port the goal of developing a competitive work force. In addition,
multiple Federal programs will continue to improve career
awareness and educational opportunities for women, minorities,
and individuals with disabilities who are integral to the future
work force of the Nation.
Scientifically Literate Public-A high quality basic science and
mathematics education is a prerequisite for those who eventual-
ly choose careers in science and engineering fields, but it is
equally necessary for the balance of our population if our citi-
zens are to understand the scientific and technical issues that
affect their lives: space policy, nuclear energy, AIDS research, or
human impact on the environment.
Although Americans have universal access to education and
broad access to information, the level of scientific literacy in the
public at large is distressing. In one recent study, half the adults
questioned did not know that it took one year for the Earth to
orbit the Sun. Science literacy will be critical to an increasingly
wide range of jobs - from repairing heavy machinery to using
a scanning electron microscope, from using computers in the
office to operating an automated production line. In addition,
science literacy is already an important job component in
careers as diverse as food production, transportation, communi-
cation, forestry, water and environmental management, weath-
er monitoring, national defense, and public health. It is increas-
ingly likely that each individual will have several jobs during his
or her lifetime, and must have the basic skills and flexibility nec-
essary to change with the changing job market and to continue
38
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
the learning process throughout adulthood. In short, the quality
of basic science and mathematics education is an issue for all
Americans-citizens workers, educators, and parents.
SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS EDUCATION
A key dimension of educational reform, the need for national
standards with local implementation, was strongly reinforced by
the Education Summit of State Governors and the President and
the subsequent adoption of the National Education Goals and
the AMERICA 2000 education strategy. Standards for mathematics
education have been developed under the auspices of the
National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. This pioneering
grass-roots effort can lead the development of mathematics cur-
ricula in the 50 states to ensure that students master the stan-
dards. The Association of State Supervisors of Mathematics is
undertaking additional programs to translate the National
Education Goals into state and local plans by training over 900
teachers who can then further spread the reform effort. The
National Science Foundation and the Department of Education
have funded the National Academy of Sciences, National
Research Council to coordinate the development of world class
Standards for K-12 science education.
Another initiative involves expanded and revitalized efforts to
enhance the competence and status of science and mathematics
teachers. By using Federal funds to leverage local funds for
teacher enhancements, these efforts have the capability of
reaching a substantial portion of the Nation's teachers. Efforts
include programs administered by the Department of Education
and the National Science Foundation that support teacher train-
ing and enhancement grants to State and local educational
agencies, teacher workshops, research experiences, and plans
for developing electronic networks which will enable teachers
and school officials to communicate and share experiences with
colleagues in distant locations.
Supplementing such programs are efforts to create closer ties
between teachers and scientists. One aspect involves the partici-
pation of scientists and engineers, and partnerships with univer-
sities and research institutions of all kinds, in the education of
young students. Scientists and engineers will come to the class-
room to teach or serve as technical resources and mentors to
teachers and students. Likewise, science and mathematics
teachers will be brought closer to the mainstream of science and
incorporate findings from science research into their instruction.
Individual Federal agencies will play an important role in this
39
SCIENCE, MATHEMATICS AND TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION
process, since many agencies conduct research and maintain
laboratories or technical facilities located throughout the nation.
This unparalleled collection of facilities will be utilized more fully
to serve mathematics and science education, benefiting local
communities and the nation as a whole. Already, Federal agen-
cies such as the Department of Energy are developing formal
partnerships between National Laboratories and local school
systems. These partnerships provide technical assistance to the
school systems, including short courses and institutes for teach-
New educational
ers on energy-related topics, the loan of equipment, and help in
technologies are
developing classroom and out-of-classroom science experi-
likely to inten-
ments; they also provide summer research appointments for
sify pressures
teachers and students and mentoring of students by laboratory
for restructuring
scientists. Perhaps the most important aspect of such interactions
the schools and
is the potential for increasing the motivation of both students and
removing anti-
teachers.
quated barriers.
A third initiative involves innovations and experiments using
new and advanced telecommunications technologies. It is
expected that electronic network services and interactive video
technologies will have a major impact on learning in and out of
schools. These innovations, summarized in reports by the
Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and the
National Telecommunications and Information Administration
(NTIA), include satellite and fiber optic networks that have enor-
mous potential for sharing master teachers and for teacher train-
ing at the school site. There are already several national consor-
tia providing interactive video instruction on a regional or
national scale. Increasing applications of the power of comput-
ers and high speed computer networks should give students
broader access to information and learning tools, to share vast
amounts of data and programs within a school or across school
boundaries. New educational technologies are likely to intensify
pressures for restructuring the schools and removing antiquated
barriers.
CONCLUSION
The United States is facing a crisis in science and mathematics
education, centered on elementary and secondary school levels.
The crisis relates to the Nation's ability to educate the next gen-
eration of scientists and engineers in adequate numbers, given
the rapidly changing demographics of the American public. It
also relates to the technical competence of the general work
force in an increasingly computerized and high-tech work envi-
40
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ronment and the ability of U.S. citizens to exercise the rights and
responsibilities of citizenship in an ever more complex world.
The concern is that, if the Nation does not educate its children
adequately, it cannot address long-term goals and social needs
and may find its ability to compete in the global economy
impaired.
The Education Summit led to the National Education Goals
and the AMERICA 2000 education strategy, and plans for the
development of National Standards which serve as a framework
for the national effort to improve education across the board. The
Bush Administration, in translating the goals into programs to
promote excellence in science and mathematics education, is
giving priority to elementary and secondary education. The pro-
grams under way include efforts to motivate students to stay in
science and mathematics courses, to enhance teacher skills, to
increase the participation of underrepresented groups in the
technical work force, to rethink and restructure the school sys-
tem, and to improve public science literacy. New initiatives
include the development of national frameworks for mathemat-
ics and science curricula, efforts to forge closer ties between
teachers and working scientists, and the application of new tech-
nologies to improve education.
Meeting the Nation's
Needs Through
Science and Technology
A A S
High Performance
Computing and
Communication
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTERS and the data networks that
connect them are becoming increasingly important to scientific
advancement, economic competition, and national security. The
technology has the potential for extraordinarily rapid advances
within the next five years-a 1000-fold improvement in comput-
ing speed and a 100-fold improvement in the transmission rate of
data networks. As such, the technology is close to the point of
having a transforming effect on industry, educational institutions
at all levels, and society as a whole.
Such a transforming effect is already evident in scientific
research and in engineering practice, where computational
methods have joined, and in some areas displaced, the tradi-
tional methods of observation and experiment. In the design of
commercial aircraft, for example, many engineering issues are
resolved through computer simulation rather than through cost-
ly wind tunnel experiments. Access to high performance com-
puters is already essential in many fields of research, from theo-
retical astrophysics to the study of complex biochemical mole-
cules to climate prediction.
Despite remarkable advances over the past 30 years, howev-
er, computers have far to go to realize their full potential. With-
out unprecedented advances in computer technology, operating
software, and computational techniques, many fundamental sci-
entific problems whose solution is critical to national needs will
remain beyond reach. Moreover, many information-processing
applications of great economic and social importance will
require unleashing the full power of which high performance
computing systems are capable.
A 1000-fold increase in computer speed in half a decade
would be a magnificent achievement, one which is likely to
involve a radically different approach to computing known as
"scalable parallel systems." Unlike most of today's computers
that have a single processor, a scalable parallel computer can
employ tens of thousands of processors and achieve a speed
that is proportional to the number of processors. With increased
45
46
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
numbers of processors, however, comes increased complexity,
particularly in the software needed for operating systems.
Nonetheless, there is optimism that a concentrated effort can
resolve such difficulties and accelerate the development of a
new generation of high performance computers.
Such computers will enable a more efficient, integrated
approach to the design and manufacturing of many kinds of
products. They will also facilitate new, more powerful methods
of managing or even creating information and the ability to dis-
play it in graphic forms that enable the human brain to grasp
patterns and complexities heretofore unimagined. High perfor-
mance computers also exert a strong leverage on the rest of the
computer industry. Historically, just 15 years separated the
appearance of a new supercomputer and the availability of the
same computing power in desktop machines.
So far, high performance computers are located primarily in
major research laboratories and large companies. But for high
performance computing to realize its potential, this computing
power must also be accessible to researchers in colleges and
universities, to small and medium-sized businesses, and ulti-
mately even to the classroom at both college and pre-college
levels. A national computer network capable of communicating
at speeds measured in billions of databits per second-100 times
faster than present technology allows-would make such wide-
spread access possible.
Many computer networks are already in place. In a growing
number of science and engineering fields, progress and produc-
tivity in modern research are increasingly dependent on the
close interaction of people located in distant places. Computer
networks, by providing low cost communication and essentially
instantaneous transfer of data and graphic information, makes
such interaction possible. Use of existing networks is growing
rapidly, doubling every six months. But for high performance
computing much higher communication capacities and speeds
are required to accommodate this growth, to handle the volume
of data that high performance computers and new generations
of space-and- land-based remote sensors generate, and to
expand and link existing networks into a major national commu-
nication infrastructure for research and education.
These high capacity networks will have the capability to
"shrink the world", rendering physical distances less important,
and at the same time expanding the world of information avail-
able to individuals. Access to the vast stores of information that
47
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
already exist-in laboratories, in government agencies, in muse-
ums and libraries-and the computing power to shape and pre-
sent that information in forms appealing to the human mind
could enormously enrich American society.
POLICY RELEVANCE
The national stakes in high performance computing include the
enhancement of research itself, because advances in this revo-
lutionary technology enable progress in almost every other sci-
Very fast, very
ence and engineering discipline. Achieving the prospective
powerful com-
1000-fold leap in computing power is essential to solve some of
puters and the
the Nation's critical problems such as climate prediction (impor-
high-speed net-
tant to the Nation's energy strategy), language translation, and
works to link
cognition. A high speed network is equally essential to give the
them are tools
nation's scientists and engineers ready access to high perfor-
of vital impor-
mance computers and to facilitate the collaboration of physically
tance far beyond
distant research groups, thus making the most efficient use of the
the university
nation's scientific talent.
or the Federal
But very fast, very powerful computers and the high-speed
research labora-
networks to link them are tools of vital importance far beyond the
tory.
university or the federal research laboratory. These technologies
are economically important because they are pertinent to virtu-
ally every industrial field. High performance computing can
speed the pace of innovation and spur gains in U.S. productivity
and industrial competitiveness by transforming the process of
product design and production throughout the U.S. economy.
High performance computing is already important in national
security and national defense, in the analysis of intelligence and
in the development of advanced military technology. Its impor-
tance has been proven through electronic battlefield manage-
ment and missile defense which are central to today's military
strategies.
Finally, high performance computing and communications
also has the potential to transform and enrich education at all
levels, making immense libraries of information and powerful
learning aids universally available in every school in the nation.
A high-speed, high-capacity network could link students to dis-
tant scholars or master teachers, could offer students at rural
schools the same wealth of visual materials and advanced cur-
ricula that their urban counterparts have, and could make sci-
ence courses available even in schools that lack modern facili-
ties. Ultimately the network could facilitate the ability of schools
at all levels to offer individualized instruction to every student.
48
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
THE HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND
COMMUNICATION INITIATIVE
To accelerate the commercial availability and utilization of the
next generation of high performance computers and networks,
the Bush Administration has proposed a strategic Federal
investment in the frontiers of computing and computer commu-
nications technologies. The program has four components repre-
senting the key areas of high performance computing and com-
munications:
High Performance Computing Systems: the development of
the underlying technology required for computing systems
capable of sustaining trillions of operations per second on large
problems. One key challenge is the development of new com-
puter designs or architectures that can operate thousands or
tens of thousands of processors in parallel. Many future designs
will involve "scalable" architectures, meaning that additional
processors can be added without changing the design leading
to performance increases nearly proportional with the number
of processors. Thus, a single design could be used to build com-
puters with a wide range of computing power.
Advanced Software Technology and Algorithms: the develop-
ment of generic programs and calculational rules for applying
high performance computer systems to critical scientific prob-
lems. A key challenge is to discover ways of splitting up major
parts of a problem into many loosely coupled pieces in order to
take advantage of parallelism and to integrate the outputs of the
processors into a solution for the overall problem. The plan is to
do this on a number of "grand challenge" problems that will tax
the capability of the most powerful computer, whose solutions
will represent major achievements in their own right.
National Research and Education Network: the development
of a national high speed network to provide high performance
computing capability to research and educational institutions
and to further advanced research on such networks and their
applications. To accommodate many types of users and link
many different computers, for example, may require develop-
ment of a hierarchy of communication paths-like high speed
and low speed lanes on a turnpike-together with uniform
"rules of the road" for navigating on the data highways. Another
challenge will be to enable network users to find readily the
information they seek among a vast and potentially confusing
array of electronic libraries and data depositories.
Basic Research and Human Resources: support for fundamen-
tal research in computer and computational science and engi-
49
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
neering activities to significantly increase the pool of trained
personnel, and support for efforts to accelerate technology tran-
sition. A predicted potential shortage of programmers and com-
puter scientists, for example, would severely inhibit the nation's
ability to exploit and commercialize the advances expected in
high performance computing.
The program provides for development of these revolutionary
technologies within the framework of a partnership among gov-
ernment, industry, and universities which allows for rapid trans-
lation of laboratory results into new products.
STATE OF THE TECHNOLOGY
The development of high performance computing poses signifi-
cant technology challenges in both hardware and software. Use
of these technologies and development of specific applications
will engage the entire scientific and engineering community.
Central to high performance computing is the new technology
known as parallel processing, which emerged in the early 1980s
from research that began two decades earlier. This innovative
approach to high performance computing has the potential to
achieve sustained speeds 1000-fold faster than current systems.
Hardware-The generation of supercomputers pioneered by
Seymour Cray achieved their performance through the use of
the fastest possible components and most advanced technolo-
gies. In current versions, these computers employ a single, very
high speed processor or make use of a limited amount of paral-
lelism-employing up to eight parallel processors-and reach
speeds up to 3 billion operations per second. Computer architec-
tures with higher levels of parallelism, in which the computa-
tional workload is shared among many simpler and less costly
processors, promise significantly faster high performance com-
puters. Not all computational problems lend themselves to paral-
lel processing approaches, however, SO that this new approach
will complement rather than replace conventional supercomput-
ers.
The recent development of massively parallel, scalable
computers is based on sharing a single computational task
among a very large number (up to 64,000 at present) of proces-
sors. These processors are each of moderate speed but connect-
ed in a sophisticated communication architecture SO that the
overall speed on a single task is proportional to the
number of processors used. The increase in speed in proportion
to the number of processors is known as scalability, and verifica-
50
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
tion of this ability over a range of meaningful problems was an
important achievement of the 1980s.
An important benefit of the scalable architectures is that a sin-
gle design, with its attendant components and software, may
prove to be useful and efficient over a performance range of 10
to 100 or more. This would allow one design and one set of oper-
ating and applications software to be used for a family of work
stations, mini-supercomputers, and very high performance com-
puters.
The United States is currently the leader in developing scal-
able parallel processing computers and the component proces-
sors for these computers. The first generation of such systems is
now commercially available. One example is the Touchstone-
Delta system, built by Intel and recently installed at the
California Institute of Technology, which has achieved speeds of
8.6 billion operations per second on "benchmark" problems.
Comparable systems do not yet exist outside the United States.
Experience with these systems has shown that, even with
existing software, they are effective for certain classes of prob-
lems. New approaches to software for these large scale parallel
systems, now beginning to emerge, indicate that parallel com-
puting can be applied to wide classes of scientific and engineer-
ing problems. However, exploiting parallel processing effective-
ly presents significant challenges. To achieve high performance
computers operating in the range of a trillion operations per sec-
ond will require major improvement in many aspects: faster
processors, faster inter-processor communication, and improved
algorithms and software.
Software-Computer hardware, by itself, can do nothing until
its power is tapped by the sets of instructions, or software, that
guide computer operations. Historically, advances in software
and in computational methods have proved just as important to
advances in computing as hardware advances. In several class-
es of scientific computing problems, for example, hardware
improvements yielded a 1000-fold speed-up over 20 years, while
improvements in software and algorithms yielded a 3000-fold
speed-up over the same period.
As high performance computing systems evolve, it is becom-
ing clear that major advances in software are also essential to
realize their full performance potential. Software development is
difficult and costly for traditional computer architectures, and
parallel systems pose even greater challenges. Too often, new
high performance computers are released with weak system
51
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
software and inadequate programming tools, thus slowing the
development of applications software. Current approaches to
software development often do not yield portable and reusable
programs. A lack of portability-the capability of moving
software from one type of computer to another-significantly
raises the cost of transition to newer architectures for many
applications programs. Approaches that facilitate the reuse and
portability of programs need strong support.
Parallel computers raise some specific software challenges,
The Bush
such as finding the efficient methods of problem solution with
Administration
effective distribution of tasks among processors. Although it is
has proposed a
not yet possible to define the optimum distribution, important
strategic Federal
progress has been made in the development of computational
investment in
models and parallel algorithms for many key problem areas.
the frontiers of
Access to high performance parallel systems is an important ele-
computing and
ment in such progress. Experience has shown that the quality of
computer com-
system and application software increases rapidly as computing
munications
systems are made more available.
technologies.
Networks-Many educational institutions, government laborato-
ries, and industrial research facilities in the United States are
currently connected to a world-wide computer network called
the Internet. However, the Internet falls short of what is required
for a national computer communications infrastructure in both
capacity and in the number of institutions connected to it. The
proposed National Research and Education Network is intended
to help remedy these limitations by serving as a testbed for
advanced networking concepts that will ultimately lead to high-
speed, high capacity private sector networks as ubiquitous as
the telephone.
Such networks are needed not only to provide high perfor-
mance computing access to research and educational institu-
tions at all levels and locations, but also to deliver new capabili-
ties. Just as scientists are learning to do experiments and collect
data remotely from space platforms, they will in the future
increasingly conduct experiments remotely at ground facilities.
Investigators at the University of Wisconsin, for example, collect
data from and control experimental apparatus located at the
National Synchrotron Light Source on Long Island over an opti-
cal fiber network.
The new network is intended to stimulate the development of
technologies that will enable a hundred-fold increase in capaci-
ty and speed and of a wide range of network applications. The
Federal government does not own the optical fibers over which
52
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Internet travels, nor will it in the proposed National Research
and Education Network.
Some of these applications, such as remote control of scientific
experiments and distance learning in schools, may initially be
extensions of current technology. However, networks capable of
far higher speeds will be needed to support access to remote
digital libraries and high performance computers. Other appli-
cations of interest include real time visualization of modeling
and simulation results, rapid interrogation and retrieval of scien-
tific data from specialized data bases, teleconferencing, and
new forms of computer-supported cooperative work.
One example of the potential uses for a high speed computer
network is provided by the field of radiology. Departments of
some of the nation's leading medical centers plan to share and
transmit digital radiological images on networks operating at
speeds of 100 million to one billion data bits per second. Such
applications will require significant advances in the areas of
network protocols (the formal structure of inter-computer com-
munications), high speed computer interfaces for computers,
and network equipment such as switches. Another priority need
is for advanced software that exploits the capabilities of the net-
work to store computer files in a distributed manner and to serve
as a national software library.
The development of more powerful computers feeds both the
demand for, as well as the growth of, more powerful data com-
munications capability. As computing technology progresses,
greater demands are placed on network performance as
researchers conceive of new tasks and modes of use that require
even higher performance. Current developments in large scale
scientific computing are leading to truly distributed computing,
allowing a given job to be executed on several different
machines communicating partial results among themselves,
sharing in different facets of calculations, and jointly assembling
a final result for output. Such inter-machine communication can
in principle take place at speeds that are a hundred or more
times faster than are possible on today's long distance networks.
Applications conducted over a computer network vary in their
flow of information from steady, as in the transfer of files
between two computers, to intermittent bursts, as in human-com-
puter interaction via keyboard. Similarly, some applications can
be carried out at relatively low communication rates, while oth-
ers by their nature require high speeds (Figure 1). Traffic seen in
the early days of networks appears near the bottom of the chart.
More advanced applications are furthest from the origin. The
53
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
chart illustrates that a network operating at the rate of a billion
bits per second (one gigabit) is needed not only to carry the
aggregation of low speed traffic, but also to accommodate high
speed uses.
10¹⁰
Distributed
Composite
Imaging
Computing
Interactive
Image
10⁸
Visualization
Transfer
Collaboration
Technology
Video
Multi-Media
Teleconference
Database
10⁶
Access
Bandwidth Peak Rate
10⁴
Text
Multi-Media
File
Mail
Transfer
Electronic
Mail
10²
Character
Data
Transfer
10°
Steady
Bursty
Traffic
Requirements
for Bandwidth
Figure 4.1 National Research and Education Network Applications
Source: Office of Science and Technology Policy
In addition to serving the needs of the scientific and research
communities, the National Research and Education Network will
provide valuable experience necessary for the successful devel-
opment of a broader, privately-operated national information
infrastructure. Such an infrastructure would allow consumers,
54
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
businesses, and schools and government at all levels to share
quality information and entertainment when and where they
want it at a reasonable cost.
Human Resources-A growing pool of scientific and engineer-
ing talent will be required if the potential of high performance
computing and high speed networks is to be realized. The most
recent analysis by the National Science Foundation, however,
concludes that the greatest shortfalls of trained personnel in the
United States will be in the areas of computer science and engi-
neering, amounting to hundreds of thousands of people over the
next decade. Additional efforts are needed to attract new talent
into this field, and to retrain people to new skills. The rapid
pace of knowledge creation and technical innovation in comput-
ing necessitates attention to infusing new skills throughout the
entire human resource "pipeline", of educational opportunity.
Thus, the Basic Research and Human Resource components of
the HPCC Initiative will create for students and their teachers new
formal learning programs. It will involve them in research expe-
riences for "hands-on" informal training. It will provide opportu-
nities for researchers young and old to acquire new skills, to
reach across traditional disciplinary boundaries to work with the
new technologies on the "Grand Challenges".
ILLUSTRATING THE IMPACT: GRAND CHALLENGES
Computers already play a fundamental role in the process of
scientific discovery in almost every field. Yet scientists and engi-
neers have long been limited in their ability to deal with a group
of fundamental problems whose solution is critical to national
needs and to the missions of Federal agencies. These "grand
challenge" problems include: prediction of weather and climate;
determination of molecular, atomic, and nuclear structures;
understanding turbulence, pollution dispersion, and combustion
systems; mapping the human genome and understanding the
structure of biological macromolecules; understanding the
nature of new materials; real-time language translation; and
understanding of the cognitive functions of the human brain.
Computer-based methods can, in principle, help to solve
many grand challenge problems. At present, however, such
solutions would require years of calculation with the fastest
supercomputers now available (Figure 2). The implications of
this "computation gap" for a number of grand challenge prob-
lems are discussed in this section.
55
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
Grand Challenges
Climate Modeling
Fluid Turbulence
Pollution Dispersion
1000
Human Genome
Ocean Circulation
Quantum Chromodynamics
Semiconductor Modeling
Superconductor Modeling
Combustion Systems
Vision and Cognition
100
Structural
Biology
Computer Performance in Billions of Operations per Second
Vehicle Signature
Pharmaceutical
Design
10
ULSI Design
Speech and
Natural Language
72 Hour
We ather
1
48 Hour
Chemical
Estimate of Higgs
Weather
Dynamics
Boson Mass
Airfoil Design
3D Plasma
Modeling
.01
2D Plasma
Modeling
1980
1990
2000
Figure 4.2 Performance Requirements for Grand Challenge Problems
Source: Office of Science and Technology Policy
In Science-One example of the growing role of high perfor-
mance computing in science concerns the genetic basis of can-
cer and other diseases. The genes are contained in DNA, the mol-
ecular thread in the nucleus of each living cell which guides the
assembly of molecules and complete living organisms. When
the genetic code is altered by mutation, serious diseases can
result, such as cancer. This phenomenon was known to scientists
studying animal tumors in the 1970s. They isolated cancer-caus-
ing genes, called "oncogenes" from animal tumors, and later
found that similar genes existed in normal human DNA. This was
56
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
a profound mystery. Why would people carry the seeds of their
own destruction in their genetic inheritance?
In 1984, two separate research groups used a computerized
searching algorithm to compare a newly discovered oncogene
to the relatively few genes known at the time. To their astonish-
ment, the cancer causing gene matched a normal gene involved
in growth and development. Suddenly, it became clear that can-
cer might be caused by a normal growth gene being switched
on at the wrong time. This fundamental and unexpected insight
was an early example of a field that is now known as
Computational Biology, the science of using computers to store
and analyze data from complex molecules in living cells.
What is pertinent here is how rapidly the potential for-and
the demands on-Computational Biology have expanded. The
databases used in 1984 for the oncogene comparisons contained
information about several thousand DNA building blocks, called
nucleotides; now they contain over 30 million. Moreover, current
research programs to map the entire human genome, as well as
those of selected simpler organisms, will acquire data on tens of
billions of nucleotides. The best computer algorithms for deter-
mining the similarity of genes require time proportional to the
length of the DNA being compared; if the methods used to ana-
lyze oncogenes in 1984 were applied to the three billion base
pairs of the human genome, they would require hundreds of
years of computer time on today's fastest supercomputers.
At the same time, progress in medical genetics has made
clear the large number of diseases that derive from a genetic
defect or an inherited propensity, from cystic fibrosis to many
forms of heart disease. Rational drug design based on the delib-
erate alteration of complex biological molecules is increasingly
the focus of pharmaceutical research. New computer designs
and software methods will be essential to cope with the explo-
sive growth of genetic and molecular data and to exploit it fully
to relieve human suffering and disease. Functioning as intellec-
tual amplifiers to detect similarities and differences in molecules
whose size and complexity are too vast for the unaided human
mind, high performance computer systems will be a critical tool
for the life sciences in the 1990s and the health care systems of
the 21st Century.
A similar phenomenon is occurring in the Earth Science field.
Remote sensing instruments on satellites provide a growing flow
of data and images to characterize the planet, reporting on tem-
perature and cloudiness, tracking severe storms, assessing crop
yields and the extent of deforestation. Storing, processing, and
57
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
analyzing this data already requires substantial computing
resources. To produce a global view of the Earth's ocean chloro-
phyll and land vegetation, for example, required the processing
of over 2 trillion bytes of raw data, accumulated over several
years. By the year 2000, advanced new satellite systems with
higher resolution sensors are expected to increase the flow of
data a thousand- fold, sending back to Earth many trillions of
bytes of information every day. For example, as currently
planned, the Earth Observing System spacecraft that are part of
The databases
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Mission to
used in 1984
Planet Earth will return data equivalent to the entire contents of
contained infor-
the Library of Congress more than once a week. To fully utilize
mation about
this information to describe and document changes in climate, in
several thou-
biological productivity, and in land use will require major
sand DNA build-
improvements in the means for collecting, analyzing, distribut-
ing blocks,
ing, and archiving data.
called
To answer critical questions about the future climate of the
nucleotides; now
Earth and the impact of human activities on the environment
they contain
requires the ability to predict, not just describe, global change.
over 30 million.
Current computerized models of the atmosphere must be
extended to include the coupled behavior of the full Earth
System, including land, air, sea, ice, and biosphere components
and to do SO with far greater geographical resolution. The com-
putational requirements exceed the capacity of even the most
powerful of present computers by a factor of a thousand in
speed. Also needed are advanced software and algorithms for
handling massive amounts of data and working with coupled
models of the Earth System.
On a regional level, high performance computers will be
needed to model air pollution and to predict the effectiveness of
regulatory control strategies, as mandated in the new Clean Air
Act. Since the "killer fogs" in London, England and Donora,
Pennsylvania caused the deaths of hundreds of people in the
1950s, the ability of the atmosphere to absorb and to cleanse
itself of pollutant contaminants is no longer taken for granted.
Legislation has mandated emissions controls on automobiles,
factories, and power plants. However, reduction strategies of
individual pollutant types do not always produce the desired
results. In fact, these simple solutions can even make air quality
worse due to complex chemical interactions of the remaining
airborne contaminants.
Unburned hydrocarbons from fuels and oxides of nitrogen
produced in the combustion process can be transformed in the
atmosphere to ozone, the main constituent of urban smog.
58
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Pollutants may travel long distances from urban or industrial
centers, contributing to the haze that obscures some natural
wonders or to the development of acid rain that endangers sen-
sitive upland lakes and forests. Because these complexities of
pollutant transport and transformation are costly and difficult to
study experimentally, numerical models of the atmosphere have
been developed to assess the effects of man-made emissions on
air quality. But present computing limitations force simplifica-
tions in the scientific descriptions of chemical and physical
processes, and slow examination of alternatives. Control strate-
gies for each pollutant are often determined independently with
little evaluation of pollutant interactions.
High performance computing will enable rapid numerical
explorations of pollutant interactions and resulting pollution lev-
els and distribution. Advanced computer designs and software
methods will also help find the pollutant control regimes of low-
est cost-an important consideration, since the potential cost to
society of proposed controls is estimated to reach tens of billions
of dollars. Improved visualization techniques will enhance the
interpretation and evaluation of massive amounts of environ-
mental measurement and computer simulation data. The result
should be a better understanding of the actions needed to mini-
mize pollutant damage to materials and environmental damage
to crops while making our air safer to breathe for future genera-
tions.
On a local scale, high performance computing will make pos-
sible more accurate predictions of severe storms, hurricanes,
floods, and other weather related phenomena. Current weather
prediction models have been constrained both by inadequate
data sets and by computer power. During the next five years,
major progress will be made on the data using a combination of
new ground-based and remote-observing systems. This leaves
inadequate computer power as the primary stumbling block to
operation of the advanced weather prediction models of the
future.
Current weather prediction models have a resolution of about
40 kilometers, and hence must treat many small scale but physi-
cally significant events or processes, such as normal rain clouds,
indirectly. Fine scale details that may affect the prediction for the
surrounding area-in, for example, thunderstorm evolution-
cannot even be addressed by the model. Improved models with
a resolution of less than five kilometers have already shown sig-
nificant advances in the accuracy of predicting a wide variety of
weather events, from severe thunderstorms to lake effect snow-
59
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
falls. But to improve the resolution of the model by a factor of two
requires an increase in computer power of almost a factor of ten,
as well as comparable increases in supporting memory, mass
storage and networks. For example, a model with five kilometer
resolution could require a computer system capable of executing
20 trillion operations per second to produce forecasts on opera-
tional schedules. Hence high performance computing systems
will be necessary to achieve the economic benefits of improved
weather prediction.
In 1986, the world was excited by the discovery that a particu-
lar arium-copper-oxide compound is a superconductor at a tem-
perature of 93° Kelvin, still very cold, (-287° F) but much warmer
than any previous superconductor. This discovery sparked a
worldwide effort to expand research to discover new supercon-
ducting materials. The economic benefit of a high-temperature
superconductor is beyond calculation, portending the develop-
ment of, for example, much more efficient power transmission
and lightweight, powerful magnets to revolutionize the trans-
portation business.
Advanced computing is a central part of the arsenal of
research tools which will be necessary to reach that payoff.
Despite these early successes, many questions remain before it
is understood how some materials superconduct when very sim-
ilar compounds do not. This understanding will be critical to pre-
dicting new superconductors, which might work at even higher
temperatures, be less expensive, carry more current, or be more
amenable to manufacturing processes. Increasing progress in
all these areas is required before the impact of these new mate-
rials will be felt. The solution of physical models requires inten-
sive calculations to understand the material structure. High per-
formance computing can shorten the discovery process by
allowing the development of accurate simulations to point
experimenters in the most promising directions. For example,
most of the groups looking for new superconductors are trying
various copper-oxide combinations. Researchers are using high
performance computers to explore the possibility of various com-
binations of elements that may lead to new superconducting
materials.
In Industry-The development of high performance computing
will impact not only industries that contribute to making comput-
ers, but also companies that use computers. The electronics
industry is one that both makes and uses computers. The elec-
tronics industry is one that both makes and uses computers.
60
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Since the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958, the number
of transistors fabricated on a microchip has doubled every two
years. The result is an ever-increasing complexity in the elec-
tronic design of chips, components, and packages. At present,
for example, the complexity of detail incorporated in a single
integrated circuit one centimeter square is equivalent to repre-
senting the map features, at a city block level, of the entire
Eastern United States. The complexity of a five centimeter square
module densely packed with a collection of chips would be the
equivalent of a map of North and South America. Computers
are already an essential part of the design process, which
involves determining the interconnecting paths, selecting the
right modules, testing the interfaces, and choosing the mix of
technologies.
The complexity is rapidly increasing. The chips containing a
few million transistors of today will evolve in the mid 1990s to
chips containing tens of millions of transistors and more. The
diversity of microchip technologies combined in a single module
will allow unprecedented flexibility for designers. Managing this
explosion in complexity would be overwhelming without the use
of computational based approaches that reduce the time to
develop such systems while optimizing the design itself. Thus,
high performance computing applied to the microelectronic
design process is itself an important tool in the evolution of high
performance computing.
Similar examples abound in a wide variety of engineering
and technological fields. Supercomputers are already used to
predict the flow of air around a wing and other aerodynamic
characteristics of aircraft and spacecraft prior to testing in wind
tunnels or actual flight, because computational simulations of a
particular design are faster and less costly. For advanced super-
sonic and hypersonic craft, wind tunnels tests will not be able to
reach their designed speeds, making computer simulations even
more important. Modelling the flow of fluids is also important in
the design of automobiles and ships.
Improving the design and efficiency of internal combustion
engines is important for both energy conservation and pollution
control. Indeed, these goals appear to conflict, because automo-
bile engines are most efficient when run at high temperatures,
but increased temperatures also lead to increased nitrogen
oxide emissions. What is required to optimize the design of an
engine is a far better understanding of the combustion process,
which involves over 400 chemical reactions of hydrocarbon and
nitrogen. In present numerical models, however, only ten or
61
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATION
fewer of the most significant reactions are used, and even SO the
calculations require several hours on today's large supercom-
puters. To simulate the full 400 reactions would require better
algorithms running on a machine 10,000 times more powerful.
In Education-Computers increasingly fill important niches in
all phases of the learning process, providing flexible instruments
for interactive instruction and student-based learning experi-
ences. Their use in education both provides the skills needed to
The chips con-
function in our increasingly technology-intensive world and aids
taining a few
teaching and learning of all science and engineering topics. The
million transis-
development of the National Research and Education Network
tors of today will
will accelerate and transfer the technology of computer commu-
evolve in the
nications to the needs of educators and students. The result will
mid 1990s to
be to empower them to share resources and ideas on a national
chips containing
scale.
tens of millions
A recent project provides an illustration of educational collab-
of transistors
oration on a national scale that the network would facilitate.
and more.
Secondary school classes in many locations chose a day to mea-
sure the length of the sun's shadow from a vertical measuring
stick on the school grounds at 12 noon. Each class consulted
maps and geography books to find its school's latitude, and sent
the results to a shared database located in the U.S. and Canada.
All schools then received the database of measurements from
around the world, and each class used the complete database to
calculate the curvature of the earth, and from that, the earth's
diameter. A normally dry recitation of facts became an engag-
ing problem-solving exercise because the students themselves
derived the answer from their shared measurements. Along the
way they learned geography, geometry, statistics, and how to
collect and share data over computer networks, which became a
learning laboratory without walls.
This project is similar to the way research scientists take
advantage of high speed digital networks to conduct shared
research that is "distance independent." What is needed is to
scale up today's networks and make them not only faster, but
also easier to use, with improved services SO that the National
Research and Education Network is readily accessible to all U.S.
educational institutions.
CONCLUSION
The field of high performance computing is making extraordi-
nary advances. These gains have the potential of achieving a
62
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
1,000-fold increase in speed within the next five years through
the development of the technology known as massively parallel
processing. The resulting computers-harnessing tens of thou-
sands of processors or more to attack a single computational
task-may have extraordinary effects on the practice of science
itself, making possible computational solutions to critical prob-
lems that are now beyond reach.
High performance computers may have a transforming effect
on society, especially when coupled with high speed, high
capacity computer networks. Such networks, capable of transfer-
ing huge quantities of information and graphics as easily as cur-
rent communication networks complete a phone call, promise to
provide broad access to high performance computers and to
digital libraries and databanks. Very fast computers and the net-
works to link them have the potential to radically alter product
design and production and thus speed the pace of innovation
and increase U.S. industrial competitiveness. The same tech-
nologies can enrich education at all levels. For these reasons,
among others, the Bush Administration has proposed a strategic
Federal investment to advance the frontiers of high performance
computing.
O
Life Sciences and
Biotechnology
PRIMITIVE BIOTECHNOLOGY dates back thousands of years, to
the time when human beings unwittingly began using microor-
ganisms to ferment beer or cause bread to rise. Traditional
breeding techniques to improve livestock or crop cultivars are
also a form of biotechnology. But beginning about 20 years ago,
scientists learned to alter precisely the genetic constitution of liv-
ing organisms, initiating a scientific and industrial revolution
based on what we now call the new biotechnology.
This new biotechnology is a rapidly expanding collection of
tools and technologies that allow unprecedented control over
and manipulation of the genetic material of organisms.
Collectively, these technological advances may well bring about
momentous changes comparable to those during the Iron Age
when man began to make effective tools for specific purposes,
rather than relying upon crudely shaped stones. We now have
in our grasp the means to produce large quantities of rare, med-
ically-valuable proteins, to modify plants and animals to carry
specific hereditary traits, and novel means to detect disease,
produce useful chemicals, and clean up and restore the environ-
ment.
Biotechnology holds the promise of additional breakthroughs
and a profound industrial transformation in the fields of health,
food processing, agriculture, energy, and the environment. It has
the potential to provide a wide array of benefits to humanity,
including treatments for previously incurable genetic diseases;
healthier meats, dairy products, fruits and vegetables; hardier,
more productive crop plants; and additional production of
renewable sources of energy.
The applications of biotechnology create many new benefi-
cial opportunities while raising issues for public education and
discussion. The use of powerful new medical tools such as
genetic screening may eventually enable physicians to prevent
certain inherited diseases or permit early therapeutic interven-
tions in patients. Microbial organisms have the potential to
reduce or eliminate adverse side-effects of current chemical-
intensive agricultural practices as well as improve methods for
65
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
cleaning up oil spills and the environmental damage. These
biotechnology methods operate at the molecular level; they are
amenable to highly precise monitoring and control procedures.
Indicative of this precision of biotechnology is the fact that, to
date, they have had no resultant untoward effects on human
health or the environment. Fermentation and most other
biotechnology synthesis and production processes take place at
relatively low temperatures and consequently use less energy
than many traditional chemical operations. Public acceptance
of the important methods and products of biotechnology will be
accelerated by a scientifically literate population that can appre-
ciate its benefits and understand its limits.
Biotechnology offers potential benefits to every nation. In fact,
biotechnology is one key to enriching the earth's productivity
and to gaining full use for human benefit of its vast genetic her-
itage without depleting precious resources.
In spite of the rapid growth of biotechnology and of the knowl-
edge base on which it rests, many opportunities remain unreal-
ized because of fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. To
date most biotechnology research has focused on biomedical
problems and relatively little is yet known about the molecular
genetics of plants, compared to the understanding of microbes
or animals. Remedying this deficit will greatly stimulate agricul-
tural applications of biotechnology. The rules that govern the
shapes of proteins, which in turn play a critical role in determin-
ing their biological properties, remain largely a mystery;
progress on this front will greatly aid in the rational design of
new drugs with greater efficacy and safety.
Although researchers still have a long way to go before the
hundreds of thousands of genetic sequences that comprise the
human genome are ordered and identified, the resulting "dictio-
nary" of human genes will be a very important aid at the ex-
panding frontier of molecular medicine. Additional scientists
and other skilled workers will be needed to exploit research
opportunities fully and to build the biotechnology knowledge
base.
Translating laboratory discoveries into practical applications
is often difficult. Funds have proved more difficult to obtain for
"proof of concept" research-as opposed to discovery-or for
scaling up biotechnology processes from the test tube to a size
large enough to attract industrial interest and support.
Transferring new technology from a university or Federal labo-
ratory to the private sector may pose additional problems.
Additional challenges on the road to product development
67
LIFE SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
include the costs of testing to meet regulatory requirements and
the uncertainties and delays in obtaining approvals from regu-
latory agencies, patents, and cautious public attitudes towards
biotechnology products. For example, certain applications of
biotechnology raise difficult choices for society, which may take
time and informed public debate to resolve.
The potential of biotechnology to improve the quality of life
and economic health of the Nation are ample reasons to over-
come these difficulties and to find ways to accelerate the full
In the long run,
development of this diverse and powerful new technology.
no industrial
country con-
POLICY RELEVANCE
cerned with its
U.S. industrial sectors employing the latest biotechnologies now
economic well-
include more than 500 start-up firms, and more than 200 estab-
being can afford
lished companies that have diversified into biotechnology-
to ignore
including many major chemical and pharmaceutical firms-and
biotechnology.
more than 200 biotechnology supplier firms in the United States
alone. In just a decade and a half, this nascent industry has
grown to produce U.S. products worth close to $3 billion annual-
ly. A growing proportion of new drugs approved for the preven-
tion and treatment of life-threatening diseases are biotechnology
related products. Enzymes made in cell culture systems promise
to change the way specialty chemicals are synthesized, making
them cheaper and cleaner. Plants engineered to resist insect
damage can reduce dependence on environmentally hazardous
chemical pesticides. Researchers are harnessing some bacteria
to produce silk and employing others to mine ore. In fact,
biotechnology already has such an extraordinary range of
applications that it is misleading to refer to a single "biotechnolo-
gy industry."
Because of the pervasive role of biologically produced prod-
ucts in everyday life, the value of new biotechnologies and prod-
ucts has the potential to expand at least 10-fold by the end of the
century and to match or surpass even the computer industry in
size, importance, and rate of growth. In the long run, no industri-
al country concerned with its economic well-being can afford to
ignore biotechnology.
American researchers developed much of the basic science of
the new biotechnology, and the United States continues to lead
the world in the commercialization of most emerging biotechnol-
ogy products. But other countries have recognized the funda-
mental importance of biotechnology; their governments have
focused on this area as critical to future economic growth; and
their companies are beginning to challenge the U.S. lead in par-
68
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ticular areas. Japan, for example, is targeting pharmaceutical
applications of biotechnology in the same way that it earlier tar-
geted the semiconductor and consumer electronic areas.
Building on Japan's traditional strengths and strong lead in fer-
mentation technology, its government is focusing on pre-compet-
itive and applied research and product development.
Investment by European governments in the new biotechnology
is close to that of the United States government, and European
companies lead in the production of some types of biotechnolo-
gy products, such as monoclonal antibodies.
The Bush Administration intends to maintain and improve
U.S. competitiveness in biotechnology as an essential element in
a growing and vigorous economy. To this end, it is giving priori-
ty attention to actions that can facilitate new discoveries and
bring them to the market place.
Securing the Science and Technology Base-The Bush Admin-
istration believes that adequate support for basic research and
research training is the key to continued national competitive-
ness in biotechnology. As part of the FY 1993 Budget, the
President has announced the establishment of the National
Biotechnology Research Initiative, a coordinated, interagency
effort to maintain the momentum of U.S. leadership in biotech-
nology and to expand research in such promising areas as envi-
ronmental bioremediation, energy production and conservation,
and manufacturing and bioprocessing. Of particular interest is
the Human Genome Project, which has the goal of mapping the
location, and eventually identifying the chemical structure, of all
the genes in the human genome and those of several model
organisms. The expanded knowledge base gained in such
research is expected to lead to many new applications in medi-
cine, agriculture, energy and the environment.
Among other fundamental problems that drive basic research
is the puzzle of development and differentiation-the process
that guides one cell of a developing fetus to become a neuron
and another to become a muscle cell. A full understanding of the
process-one of biology's deepest and most enduring myster-
ies-will shed light on the mechanisms that turn individual
genes on and off. The ability to switch genes on and off is critical
to the manipulation of cells to produce particular proteins of
medical or nutritional interest and for interventions in abnormal
disease states. For example, improved understanding of the
process may help combat cancer, which appears often to
involve the switching on of certain normally beneficial genes,
69
LIFE SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
known as oncogenes, at the wrong time, or the switching off of
so-called cancer-suppressor genes.
A frontier area of high interest is research on the human
brain; indeed, the 1990's have been designated the "Decade of
the Brain." Neuroscientists are intensifying their efforts to under-
stand the complex interplay of electrical and chemical processes
by which the brain analyzes sensory input, stores memories,
and gives instructions to the rest of the body. Others are focusing
on the brain's interactions with hormonal systems that influence
mood and emotions and with the immune system that combats
infection. Still others are trying to understand the nature of cog-
nition and exploring whether computers patterned after the
brain can have decisive advantages in tasks such as pattern
recognition.
Fundamental basic research needs to be coupled with
thematic research leading to the solution of problems which are
inherently multidisciplinary and require a broad base of re-
search capabilities. The solutions to these problems are likely to
come in tandem with the development of generic enabling tech-
nologies, tools which have application over the entire spectrum
of U.S. industries. This strategically focused research and gener-
ic enabling technology development frequently reflects initia-
tives at the biology-engineering interface rather than the tradi-
tional research disciplines that contribute to fundamental
biotechnology. For example, metabolic engineering joins mole-
cular biology and chemical engineering approaches to redesign
reactors for purposes such as enhanced metabolite production.
Tissues engineering combines modern genetic techniques with
the insights gained from material sciences to produce synthetic
organs.
All of these interdisciplinary research efforts require a cadre
of trained investigators capable of understanding both the bio-
logical and the chemical and engineering problems which are
characteristic of this research. At the current time, such individ-
uals are in very short supply in the U.S.
In addition to the support of basic research, the President's
Council on Competitiveness recommends vigorous efforts to
transfer technology from Federal or Federally-supported labora-
tories to the marketplace and to train a multidisciplinary pool of
biotechnology scientists and engineers.
Risk-Based Regulation-It is important to avoid overly restric-
tive regulation by matching regulatory restraints to the degree of
risk posed by specific products. In biotechnology, Federal reg-
70
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ulation is a critical determinant of the time and cost of bringing a
new product to market. To remove uncertainties in the regulato-
ry environment, the President's Council of Competitiveness has
recommended that Federal regulation should focus on the char-
acteristics and risks of the biotechnology product, not on process
by which it is created. This recommendation is based on the
finding that products developed through biotechnology are not
per se inherently more risky than those created through the
more traditional methods such as selective breeding, varietal
graph, etc. Risk-based regulation will allow products of low or
negligible risk to be developed and brought to market with rela-
tively less administrative burden thus freeing regulatory agen-
cies to focus their resources on those products with greater
potential hazards.
In developing regulations, the Council on Competitiveness
also recommended the use of performance criteria-specifying
the ends or goals, not the specific design or methods required to
achieve a health or environmental goal. This approach provides
researchers and firms flexibility in choosing the best means of
compliance and reduces the need for lengthy revisions of regu-
lations as the technology advances.
Risk-based regulation will help to keep the United States at
the forefront of biotechnology and make its benefits available to
Americans while ensuring their safety and that of their environ-
ment. In Europe, for example, a more restrictive approach to reg-
ulation has already caused some biotechnology companies to
move their research laboratories and production facilities to the
United States or elsewhere. It is therefore apparent that a ratio-
nal, predictable, risk-based regulatory environment provides a
competitive advantage to the U.S. vis a vis other nations.
STATE OF THE SCIENCE
Fundamental research often leads to the development of unfore-
seen techniques or products of immense social and economic
value. Past U.S. investment in biological research is in fact the
basis for the present flowering of the biotechnology industry.
One example is the group of biological compounds known as
growth factors which stimulate cell growth. In 1959, Dr. Levi-
Montalcini received a $53,000 federal grant to study the first of
these compounds to be identified, nerve growth factor.
Subsequently, a large array of growth factors has been identi-
fied, purified, cloned, and brought to commercial use. By 1989,
just 30 years after Levi-Montalcini's pioneering work, sales of
71
LIFE SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
growth hormones by two U.S. biotechnology companies
amounted to $430 million annually.
Health Applications-An important use of biotechnology is the
development of new, more potent medicines and vaccines, and
the production of purer, more effective versions of existing drugs
and vaccines. As of January, 1991, 500 novel biotechnology prod-
ucts had been approved by the Food and Drug Administration
for medical use in the U.S. More than 1,000 trials of additional
Risk-based
new drugs, vaccines, and devices are under way.
regulation will
Revolutionary new medical approaches to treatments based
help to keep the
on biotechnology, such as the use of gene therapy to correct
United States at
inherited genetic defects, have begun clinical trials. Children
the forefront of
who suffer from the rare and devastating immune disorder
biotechnology.
known as Severe Combined Immune Deficiency Syndrome, for
example, are receiving infusions of genetically-corrected lym-
phocytes in an experimental attempt to restore their ability to
fight systems infections. Similar gene therapy approaches
appear to be imminent for other diseases, including some forms
of cancer and familial hypercholesterolemia The recent local-
ization of the genetic defect responsible for cystic fibrosis sug-
gests potential means for treating this disease.
Biotechnology has also made it easier to detect and diagnose
diseases. With remarkable simplicity and precision, these meth-
ods can now detect a wide variety of conditions. They vary from
user-friendly and inexpensive home diagnostic kits for pregnan-
cy, to hospital or office-based tests that simplify formerly complex
laboratory procedures. More than 500 diagnostic devices based
on biotechnology are used in clinical practice today. Of these,
the most important have been the screening tests for blood prod-
ucts that have safeguarded the blood supply from contamination
by the AIDS and the hepatitis B and C viruses.
Agricultural Applications-No single industry is more vital to
the well-being of the Nation and, indeed, that of the world's pop-
ulation, than agriculture. Moreover, as the largest commercial
component of the U.S. economy, the health of the domestic agri-
culture industry has enormous implications for U.S. financial sta-
bility and competitiveness abroad. Assuring a rich science base
can support the development of agricultural biotechnologies
essential to U.S. agriculture in the next century.
Potential applications of biotechnology in agriculture include
better management of agro-ecosystems through decreased use
72
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
of chemicals; new methods of maintaining soil productivity; bet-
ter water management; and new and improved agricultural
products. They promise the development of crops and animals
with higher tolerances for biological and environmental stress
and better quality foodstuffs with higher contents with desired
nutrients.
The need for more basic information is particularly acute for
plant systems in which important traits have complex genetics
and few parallels among microbial or animal systems. Recent
advances have provided the opportunity to obtain this informa-
tion and thus to apply genetic engineering technologies to bene-
fit agriculture. The production of fertilizer is a major consumer of
energy in the United States. Biotechnology approaches to nitro-
gen fixation enabling crop plants to produce their own fertilizer
would save energy and reduce damage to the environment
caused by excess applications of artificial fertilizer, as well as
helping to alleviate hunger in many parts of the world.
The new biotechnology can produce many of the same bene-
fits as traditional breeding techniques, only more quickly and
with greater precision and predictability. Enhancements of cer-
tain characteristics of tomatoes, for example, are expected to
provide increased resistance to pests, thus reducing the need for
chemical pesticides. Other enhancements could improve the tex-
ture and produce tomatoes with less spoilage between the farm
and the consumer. Companies are field testing a variety of crops
with enhanced resistance to specific viruses, insect pests, and
herbicides. Under development are improved staple crops such
as soybean or corn with higher levels of specific nutrients and
vegetable oils with lower levels of saturated fats.
Many manufactured foods such as cheese and yogurt require
the use of bacteria or enzymes in their production. Scientists are
modifying existing enzymes, isolating new varieties, and cloning
genes for other enzymes into microorganisms for easier isolation
and purification. For example, chymosin, an enzyme used in the
manufacture of cheese, has traditionally been extracted from the
stomach of calves, but can now be produced by specially devel-
oped microorganisms. Likewise, using the new techniques, sci-
entists are genetically improving the microorganisms used to
ferment many food stuffs and beverages.
In the area of animal husbandry, biotechnology has enabled
development of hormone applications that increase the ratio of
protein to fat in pigs and the milk yield from COWS. Additionally,
veterinary diagnostic techniques and new animal drugs similar
to those for humans are under development with several having
reached the marketplace. One vaccine now being tested holds
73
LIFE SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
great promise for controlling rabies in wild and domestic animal
populations effectively and inexpensively.
Environmental Applications-A healthy environment depends
on the interaction of many different living organisms, from plants
and animals to the communities of soil microorganisms that
degrade biological matter and recycle nutrients. Biotechnology
can protect these organisms and their interactions by introduc-
ing biological methods to replace toxic chemicals. Biological
pesticides such as the toxins produced by the bacterium, bacillus
thuringiensis (BT), are used to control gypsy moths and have
been found to break down quickly, leaving no harmful residues;
genes from BT, inserted into crop seeds, can confer pest resis-
tance.
When toxic chemicals or waste materials do enter the environ-
ment, biotechnology offers efficient means of dealing with the
problem. The use of biological processes to clean up wastes from
human activities is well established; bacterial degradation of
sewage forms the basis of a substantial portion of the waste
treatment industry. Recombinant DNA techniques will enhance
methods for gathering, screening, and breeding oil-eating bac-
teria from around the world, and to create more efficient
microorganisms using genetic engineering techniques.
Biotechnology also has potential applications in breaking down
toxic wastes and rendering them harmless through the action of
specially designed microorganisms, enzymes, or catalytic anti-
bodies. Another possible use of biotechnology is in the rehabili-
tation of areas fouled by pollutants, such as the removal of chlo-
rinated hydrocarbons from contaminated groundwater by bac-
terial attack. Recent experiments in Prince William Sound and
the Gulf of Mexico suggests the value of selected microorgan-
isms for clean-up of oil spills in the sea, on the shore and in wet-
lands.
Early detection of small quantities of environmental pollutants
could decrease markedly the costs of clean-up and more rapidly
return habitats to acceptable norms. Biotechnology may be able
to provide "indicator" organisms, sensitive enzyme assays, mon-
oclonal antibodies, and other biosensors able to detect minus-
cule levels of potentially toxic agents and to provide early detec-
tion of ecosystems under stress. Although the vast majority of
microorganisms in soil, fresh water, and oceans cannot yet be
isolated or identified by traditional microbiological methods,
biotechnology techniques of DNA fingerprinting and gene ampli-
fication now are making it possible to detect many of these
microorganisms, even when present in low numbers, and to
74
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
identify their essential role in the complex cycling of nutrients
and gases in the biosphere. Changes in gene frequencies in
near-shore populations of microorganisms, for example, may
provide one of the most sensitive indicators of ocean environ-
mental degradation.
To fulfill biotechnology's full potential in environmental appli-
cations, however, further research is needed. Scientific under-
standing of the physiology and interactions of different kinds of
organisms and the contributions their activities make to the func-
tions of different ecosystems is rudimentary at best. This is partic-
ularly true of microorganisms whose presence and activities are
crucial for the continued viability of the larger, more visible
organisms. Successful bioremediation of polluted areas will
require improved processes for getting microorganisms into
direct contact with contaminants, for effecting degradation of
contaminants present in very low concentrations, and for manip-
ulating the ecology of the treatment environment. In addition to
the lack of basic information, there is a significant shortage of
scientists and engineers with training in the disciplines related
both to biotechnology and environmental science.
Energy and Chemical Process Applications— Environmental
and energy security concerns with fossil fuels such as oil are
prompting a new look at renewable energy resources. Scientists
are studying the use of microorganisms, modified plants, plant
material, municipal and animal wastes, and other renewable
materials as sources of fuels such as gasoline, alcohol, and nat-
ural gas. Examples include the use of wood to produce gasoline
substitutes, and wood waste products such as bark and sawdust
to yield ethanol. Biotechnology promises to accelerate such
efforts by developing genetically-altered organisms and
improved bioconversion processes.
Other energy-related research is focused on the potential of
biological systems to enhance oil recovery, to clean and desulfur-
ize coal before combustion, and to convert coal to gaseous and
liquid fuels. For example, oil that otherwise would remain in the
ground may be recovered through the introduction of certain
microorganisms to oil wells. Biotechnology research aimed at
reducing wastes from energy-generating processes and clean-
ing up energy-related waste is also underway.
Energy applications are special instances of the larger area of
bioprocessing and bioconversion, in which biological means are
used to accomplish chemical transformations. Examples include
production of commercially valuable molecules, such as special-
ty chemicals and pharmaceuticals, that are often present only in
75
LIFE SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
low concentration in the starting materials or are expensive and
difficult to synthesize. Thus, certain microorganisms are used to
refine copper ores, recovering the metal without the environ-
mental and energy costs of smelting and making economical the
recovery of copper from even low-grade ores.
Bacteria have been recently discovered in the oceans oxidiz-
ing and precipitating iron, manganese, cobalt, nickel, and other
valuable and strategic metals. Harnessing the genes and
enzymes of these bacteria may make it possible to produce these
The importance
metals catalytically from low-grade sources, bypassing other
of biotechnology
more expensive industrial approaches presently used. Other
in the chemical
bacteria reverse this processes for a variety of different metals,
and energy
both strategic and toxic, thus presenting further economic oppor-
industries
tunities for exploitation, as well as the possibility of using engi-
seems likely to
neered organisms for remediating heavy metal pollution.
increase over
Another class of applications includes the use of quite diverse
time.
biological systems and bioreactors to recover, produce, or modi-
fy novel molecules for commercial application. An extremely
challenging problem in the synthesis of high value molecules
such as pharmaceuticals is that of maintaining the proper stere-
ochemistry in each step. In some cases the active molecule is
only one of several dozen possible products of a chemical reac-
tion that have the same connections between atoms, but differ-
ent shapes. Enzymes can be used to produce a desired molecule
with a specific shape or stereochemical properties with almost
perfect fidelity, SO that biotechnological approaches to chemical
synthesis have the potential for both minimizing the use of valu-
able starting materials and minimizing chemical waste.
Chemzymes, artificial molecules designed to mimic enzymes,
are expected to play important roles in biotechnological
approaches to chemical syntheses.
In addition to greater specificity and lower wastes, bioprocess-
ing typically takes place at lower temperatures than traditional
chemical processing, resulting in energy savings, and can
accommodate a wide range of non-petroleum starting materials.
Thus the importance of biotechnology in the chemical and ener-
gy industries seems likely to increase over time.
To achieve these goals, however, a broader base of fun-
damental science and engineering knowledge is needed.
Improvements must be sought in the biochemical pathways by
which animal, microbial, or plant materials are converted into
single-cell proteins, lipids, feedstocks, surfactants, specific pesti-
cides, or other chemical products. More experience is needed
76
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
with commercial-scale processes for transforming organic raw
materials into useful products, including the design of novel
bioreactors that can maintain the viability of living organisms in
sometimes harsh environments. The biology of organisms that
not only survive, but thrive and multiply at temperatures near
that of boiling water, is still a mystery, but one whose solution is
likely to lead to useful enzymes of commercial catalytic value.
A deeper understanding of how enzymes function on a molec-
ular level is needed to broaden the usefulness of isolated
enzymes for chemical synthesis. For example, such an under-
standing should allow the production of chemically, or geneti-
cally, altered enzymes capable of carrying out a specific chemi-
cal step on a whole family of related molecules. In order to
understand the biological and chemical action of proteins such
as enzymes and receptors, scientists need to be able to predict
their three-dimensional structure and to simulate their interac-
tion with other molecules using powerful computers.
A fundamental limitation is and will be the supply of scientific
and engineering talent. The nation has an inadequate supply of
well-trained microbial physiologists, biochemists, and geneti-
cists to study and develop uses for presently recognized bacte-
ria, let alone the isolation and characterization of the large num-
ber of microorganisms that exist in nature and that await study.
Enabling Technologies-Much has been said about the loss of
technology from the United States to other countries and the
nation's lag in translating basic science into commercial prod-
ucts. Biotechnology is no exception, and appears to be at a criti-
cal juncture. The U.S. lead in basic biotechnology related sci-
ences is still intact, albeit threatened; means exist to facilitate the
"scale-up" process from the laboratory to industrial-scale pro-
duction; but there may be a bottleneck at the first step outside of
the laboratory.
In biotechnology, each of the progressive steps of scale-up
from test tube to flask to small fermentation vessel to pilot plant
and ultimately to large scale production facilities involves new
scientific questions. These arise because living cells are vulnera-
ble to shear forces, temperature and oxygen fluctuations, and
the inhibiting effects of waste products. They generally have
special nutritional requirements and carefully maintain condi-
tions for growth. Methods for efficiently separating and purifying
the desired product, which may be present at very low concen-
trations, from the cellular and other materials in the fermentation
vessel also pose formidable problems. The answers to such
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LIFE SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
questions are attainable from biotechnology process research
and the results can often applied generically to the development
of numerous products.
Research of this nature has been relatively neglected. In
awarding competitive federal research grants, peer review com-
mittees tend to favor basic research in contrast to more applied
investigation. Smaller companies sometimes do not have the
capital to invest in high-risk research. The larger companies
may conduct such research but maintain the results as propri-
etary information, thus withholding its use from others.
The methods and techniques employed to move from labora-
tory to industrial scale production are known collectively as
enabling technologies. Although they may vary from field to
field, many are common in areas such as the production of pro-
teins. In this case, much of the technology employed today is
more than 30 years old. For example, human and animal cells
are cultured in cumbersome and inefficient systems unsuitable
for large scale operations, and progress in the development of
superior bioreactor systems would achieve rapid increases in
cost-efficiency. Another example of enabling technology is
improved understanding of model organism systems most likely
to be employed for scale-up production of biotechnology prod-
ucts. These can now include mammalian, insect, and plant cells,
as well as bacteria, viruses, yeasts and other microorganisms.
Further progress in enabling technologies could accelerate the
translation of such fundamental knowledge into new products
and hence accelerate the benefits of biotechnology for human-
kind.
CONCLUSION
Biotechnology represents an unprecedented development in our
ability to alter the genetic material of living organisms and thus
is giving rise to a new industrial revolution. The rapidly expand-
ing biotechnology industries promise significant new benefits in
human health, in agriculture, in environmental protection, and
in the production of energy and chemicals.
The United States leads the world in developing new biotech-
nology products, but competition is increasing and the economic
stakes are high. Maintaining U.S. leadership will require con-
tinued efforts to expand the knowledge base and to solve funda-
mental problems through basic research. It will require
increased efforts to translate new knowledge into products by
improving the ability to "scale up" laboratory processes into
industrial application. Finally, it will require the encouragement
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
of a flourishing free market and a "risk-based", scientifically
sound regulatory approach that can protect health and the envi-
ronment while removing unnecessary barriers to innovation.
The potential of biotechnology gives ample human, national,
and economic incentives to hasten the full application of this
diverse group of technologies for human benefits.
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Science and Technology
and National Security
THE CONFLICT IN THE GULF, and the dramatic developments
underway in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union,
presage far-reaching changes in the international environment
and in the security needs of the West. The development and
application of technology to support changing defense, foreign
policy, and intelligence requirements present dynamic and
diverse challenges to those entrusted with ensuring our nation's
security. *
THE FUTURE NATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
The past 2 years have seen historic changes in many parts of the
world. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the face of Europe has
been altered dramatically, bringing a new spirit of hope and
opportunity to the peoples of Central and Eastern Europe. Many
of the changes we are witnessing have made the United States
safer, reaffirming the wisdom of the West's postwar strategy of
containment, deterrence, and support for democracy around the
world.
Yet with the end of the Cold War comes a set of new national
security problems and strategic challenges for the future. While
the threat of war in Europe has receded sharply, we still face
regional threats. Moreover, vast quantities of modern nuclear
and conventional forces, previously held by the Soviet Union,
still exist in the Commonwealth of Independent States and its
constituent republics.
Arms control agreements, such as the Strategic Arms
Reductions Treaty (pending Senate approval) and the agree-
ment on Conventional Forces in Europe, as well as any new
agreements being discussed with the new Commonwealth of
Independent States or Republics, offer opportunities for enhanc-
ing stability and peace. But the key to arms control is effective
verification, and it presents continuing challenges to our tech-
*
This chapter does not fully address the S&T implications of the break-up of the Soviet Union and formation
of the Commonwealth of Independent States which post-date the period covered by this report.
81
82
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
nical capabilities and creativity. In addition, Soviet intelligence
activities, especially their efforts to acquire Western technology,
remain aggressive. As a consequence, military technology com-
petition continues with muffled intensity.
Throughout the world, there is a premium for high technology,
particularly weapons technology, that can turn a small nation
into a threat to its neighbors, its region, or, indeed, to the United
States itself, and to the Western nations. In particular, prolifera-
tion of the technologies for weapons of mass destruction and
their delivery systems is an increasing problem for the United
States and the whole world.
Although we would wish for a peaceful post-cold war world,
the invasion of Kuwait shows that militarism and aggression are
still very much with us. As the threat of global conventional con-
flict recedes, the potential for major regional threats to U.S. inter-
ests remains. Such conflicts can arise suddenly, unpredictably,
and from unexpected sources. And, as was evident during
Operation Desert Storm, some of these regional threats are seek-
ing to arm themselves with weapons of mass destruction.
Although it is impossible to predict precisely which countries
will come to possess weapons of mass destruction, unless ballis-
tic missile sales and existing development programs are halted,
a number will have the capability to deploy short-range ballistic
missiles with chemical and, perhaps in some cases, biological
warheads by the year 2000. In addition, several countries prob-
ably will have nuclear weapons and a few medium range bal-
listic missiles. Chemical and biological agents are also likely to
be available for use by insurgency forces and possibly terrorists.
While the Bush Administration is committed to combating the
worldwide proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the
missiles that deliver them, foreign indigenous programs and
determined diverters of controlled technology make the chal-
lenge very difficult.
Another challenge lies in the need to reconcile the inherent
tensions between wanting to facilitate new business opportuni-
ties for American concerns abroad, while at the same time con-
trolling the spread of goods and technologies that may have mil-
itary application. We have made substantial progress with
other potential supplier countries to promote agreement on fur-
ther strengthening export controls but much remains to be done.
These are but a few of the many national security science and
technology challenges facing the United States in the 1990s.
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY
CHALLENGES FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
As Desert Storm reminded us, America's tremendous scientific
and technological strength provides the qualitative edge that
has long ensured the nation's deterrent and helped preserve the
peace. The superiority of the current generation of U.S.
weapons is a direct result of decisions made in years past to har-
ness American technical ingenuity to develop military systems
of unparalleled performance and quality. Costly though some
were, these systems have saved the lives of many U.S. service-
In providing for
men and women, as well as countless civilians. As the U.S.
the nation's
enters the 1990s, the strength of our basic and applied research
security, we
in defense and intelligence technologies must be sustained.
need a defense
At a time of declining defense budgets and heightened inter-
research base
national instabilities, it is especially critical that we not lose sight
that will guard
of our future security needs. They will require a stable, long-
against techno-
term investment in science and technology. By its nature, long
logical surprises.
lead time R&D work is especially vulnerable to disruptions in
funding: time lost and teams disbanded due to discontinuances
and delays cannot be recovered by future budget add-ons.
Accordingly, current defense planning guidance stresses the
need to ensure adequate research funding, to provide future
technology options, and to exploit U.S. technological advan-
tages.
In providing for the nation's security, we need a defense
research base that will guard against technological surprises,
one which will keep the United States in lead in the technology
breakthroughs to define tomorrow's military advantages.
Derivatives of stealth technologies, military night vision tech-
nologies, and new generations of smart weapons are among the
leading examples that proved their worth during the Gulf War.
These were all based on technology breakthroughs that are now
10 or more years old.
The defense community also needs effective means for
sustaining and exploiting evolutionary improvements in military
technologies. For instance, Desert Storm has shown the impor-
tance of developing real time command, control, communica-
tions, and intelligence, under all conditions of weather, night or
day. In these areas, improvements are important both for the
national leadership, as well as for commanders in the field.
We also need to focus attention on cutting edge technologies
that lend themselves to wide application, because potential
adversaries are certain to be doing the same. In the laboratory
we are learning how to build structures at the molecular and
atomic level, which indicates that the rapid progress in sensor
84
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
and computer materials of the last 10 years is very likely to con-
tinue for the next 10 and beyond. In other areas such as materi-
als science and technology, stronger and lighter materials are
becoming available, as well as materials with other tailored
properties. And in the computer sciences, new computer archi-
tectures, faster machines, larger memories, more robust and
"intelligent" software have all opened new possibilities, ranging
from the design of new weapon systems, through high perfor-
mance aircraft and intelligence collection and analysis.
To meet these requirements, the Bush Administration is
increasing the magnitude and improving the direction of invest-
ments in defense science and technology. While defense spend-
ing overall has declined in real terms over the period covered
by this report, defense-related research has continued to grow.
DOD funds obligated for research in FY 1991 increased approxi-
mately 4 percent over the FY 1990 level.
In these endeavors, the national laboratories represent
unique resources. Their long experience in defense, their pool of
dedicated and highly motivated scientists and engineers, and
their unparalleled R&D facilities, continue to help provide the
technological superiority upon which our security and freedom
depend. As DOD laboratories undergo reorganization and con-
solidation, we will need to ensure that the unique capabilities
they represent are not lost.
We also require a defense industrial base that is prepared
respond to a broad range of military contingencies that may
emerge in the future. It is no longer sufficient to rely upon indi-
vidual weapon system programs to develop needed defense
production capabilities. Rather, we will need to rely increasing-
ly on technological leadership available in the commercial sec-
tor, and to take account of growing international markets in
emerging technologies.
The Bush Administration is committed to ensuring healthy
and wise levels of investment in critical and cutting edge tech-
nologies central to tomorrow's defense, and to the support of a
defense establishment that is ready for the challenges of a
changing world. These challenges will be many and diverse.
Below is a small sampling of the national security issues which
will require focused science and technology policy and plan-
ning.
Protection of the Nation's Strategic Information and
Technology-Technology has brought us unprecedented growth
in the supply of telecommunications and information processing
85
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY
services within the Federal government and throughout the pri-
vate sector. With the advent and extension of high performance
computing capabilities, those services will continue to expand at
an unprecedented rate, as discussed in Chapter 4. And, to
ensure the security of the United States, a vast array of different
types of information must be collected, structured, analyzed, and
evaluated. In this endeavor, science and technology are mak-
ing increasingly significant contributions.
But this technology revolution is proving a double-edged
sword. Just as technology has made more information available
to us, thereby enhancing its value, SO too has the technology to
exploit information systems become ever cheaper and easier to
acquire. As a result, government national security information
systems as well as private sector information systems are
increasingly at risk.
As computer and communications systems continue to con-
verge and become embedded in many other strategic technolo-
gies security and protection of information systems become more
complicated. Simultaneously, the dependence of government,
private sector and National Security is becoming increasingly
dependent on information systems. So, at a time when we are
most dependent, we are also most exposed.
At the same time, the technological wealth of the United States
is today, and has long been, a target for foreign adversaries who
seek access to that technology both openly and legally as well
as through other means. The identification and protection of the
critical technologies upon which we will depend for our future
security is a key challenge for both government and the private
sector.
Over the past 10 years, the United States has come of age in
recognizing the strategic importance of the security of our infor-
mation, our technology, and the communications and computer
systems which enable us to use them productively. The next 10
years will challenge us to act on that knowledge. And our suc-
cess will be measured by how well the government and the pri-
vate sector work together to secure vital strategic information
and technologies against an increasingly sophisticated, aggres-
sive and diverse threat.
Technologies to Defend Against Ballistic Missiles-The prolif-
eration of ballistic missile technology worldwide, and concerns
over the potential for accidental or unauthorized strikes, under-
score the pressing need for a capability to defend against ballis-
tic missile attack, whatever its source. No responsible leader can
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
afford to leave Americans undefended against ballistic attack.
Accordingly, the Bush Administration has assigned high priority
to developing and deploying a system to address this growing
danger.
The war in the Persian Gulf conclusively demonstrated that
we need defense against ballistic missiles, and that such
defense is technically feasible. The ballistic missile threats we
will face in the future will be more sophisticated than the Scud,
and we will require more advanced and capable defenses to
counter them. The success achieved with the Patriot, which is a
"point" defense system, suggests that advanced systems capa-
ble of defending larger areas would be even more effective in
extending protection to deployed U.S. forces and to our allies.
Moreover, such defenses would help ensure regional stability
and our non-proliferation goals by reducing the potential
advantages for would be aggressors from the acquisition or use
of ballistic missiles.
Because of these threats, the Strategic Defense Initiative has
been redirected to develop capabilities to protect U.S. forward
deployed forces, and allies, as well as the United States itself,
against limited ballistic missile attacks, whatever their source.
That system, called GPALS (Global Protection Against Limited
Strikes), would ensure continuous global detection, tracking, and
interception of ballistic and theater missiles and their associated
warheads.
In order to find solutions to the multi-faceted demands of bal-
listic missile defense, SDI has challenged the science and tech-
nology community to push the edges of creativity and innova-
tion, and the program has witnessed several important techno-
logical accomplishments since inception in the mid-1980s.
Breakthroughs have been made in research on interceptors,
computers and signal processors, propulsion and navigation
systems, and in future defensive technologies, such as laser
beam propagation, and neutral particle beam operations in
space. There is every indication that we can expect additional
scientific and technical advances in the years to come.
The SDI technology research strategy is to preserve a strong
technology base to support four broad categories of research: (1)
projects to support or upgrade the GPALS system, (2) projects that
support candidate elements of possible follow-on systems, (3)
projects to resolve key technology issues applicable to several
ballistic missile defense elements, and (4) projects that encom-
pass generic, long-term research that promises high payoff,
albeit at high technical risk.
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY
SDI is also funding an innovative science and technology pro-
ject to encourage prompt exploration of new initiatives. It will
explore innovative technologies seeking "breakthroughs or
quantum leaps" in six areas: (1) advanced high-speed comput-
ing, (2) materials and structures for space applications, (3) sens-
ing and discrimination, (4) advanced space power, (5) advanced
propellants and propulsion, and (6) directed, kinetic energy con-
cepts.
In addition to its direct contribution to national security, the
Verification has
Strategic Defense Initiative is an excellent example of the high
always been a
and largely unanticipated returns we as a nation derive from
difficult process,
funding defense research and technology initiatives. SDI-spon-
and numerous
sored research is serving as a catalyst for spin-offs in many sci-
factors will
entific and technical fields, including medicine, computer tech-
make the verifi-
nology, electronics, aerospace innovations, optics, automotive
cation of future
engine components, and industrial and manufacturing processes.
agreements
even more
Arms Control Verification Technologies-As several new
complicated.
treaties have recently been signed, the coordination of federal
R&D efforts in support of arms control verification technologies is
growing increasingly complex. Verification has always been a
difficult process, and numerous factors will make the verification
of future agreements even more complicated. The most impor-
tant of these include: (1) the scope of current and future agree-
ments in which strategic and space systems, conventional
forces, and chemical weapons must be considered, and (2)
advances in and proliferation of technologies that are leading to
smaller, more mobile, easily hidden weapon systems that are
difficult to detect. A related problem is the cost and potential risk
to U.S. industry presented by intrusive Soviet inspection and ver-
ification activities here.
Over the past two decades, greater demands have been
placed on arms control verification. The early arms control
agreements were generally well-matched to our intelligence
technology. The primary focus of such agreements was on
counting large, stationary objects, such as ICBM silos. Increas-
ingly arms agreements have come to focus on smaller, mobile
units of account (such as mobile missiles and cruise missiles),
and also on qualitative weapons features, such as throwweight
and size of reentry vehicles. To meet these new challenges, we
are adopting technologies for use by on-site inspectors, as well
as continuing to develop and incorporate technologies for
national technical means (NTM) of verification (including recon-
naissance satellites and radars). In applying these technologies
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
to arms control verification, we must not lose sight of the poten-
tial for determined attempts at data denial and deception. For
the foreseeable future, effective arms control verification will be
of great importance to U.S. national security, and will continue to
present challenges to our technical capabilities and energies.
Finally, it is critical that other vital intelligence missions are
not shortchanged as scarce intelligence resources are dedicated
to verification and compliance monitoring. Meeting all of the
priority needs of policy makers for quality intelligence is a key
national security technology policy concern.
Science and Technology to Support Intelligence-In the past,
the U.S. intelligence community has enjoyed a preeminent posi-
tion in its scientific and technological abilities. But today's com-
mercial world has caught up, and we are seeing the spread of
the kinds of technologies (such as specialty electronics) that were
once the exclusive province of the intelligence community.
As a result, other nations, actors and individuals can have
access to collection and other devices which heretofore only the
intelligence community possessed. Cryptographic encoders
and decoders, sensors, communications suites, signals intercept
capabilities, and increasingly overhead surveillance assets are
now widely available. The proliferation of these technologies
will pose significant challenges to U.S. collection and security in
the future.
In the past, the vast majority of our intelligence S&T dollars
have been invested in technology to support collection; relative-
ly little effort has been devoted to technologies to improve colla-
tion and analysis. But effectiveness in intelligence production is
measured by meaning, not just volume. For the future, we will
need to exploit technology to support analysis and production of
this information, just as we have developed technology for its
collection. We also need to be more aggressive in exploiting
innovative technologies as force multipliers to support counter-
intelligence, security, and counter-measures to protect national
strategic assets.
For the past 30 years, we have relied on unsurpassed science
and technology capabilities to support the vital intelligence
needs of the country. We will need to find ways to ensure that
the coming decade will be as creative and productive a period
for science and technology applied to intelligence collection and
analysis.
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY
Intelligence Support to Science and Technology Policy
Making-The use of intelligence to support science and technol-
ogy policy making is increasingly of interest, as intelligence pri-
orities are reexamined in light of changes in the world. The con-
sumers (policy makers) and the producers (the intelligence com-
munity) will need to work together to ensure that requirements
are carefully established and that the usefulness of the products
is maximized.
Increasingly, people are coming to understand what has
always been true: that the well-being of the United States de-
pends as much on our economic strength as upon our military
might. While traditional national security requirements for intel-
ligence remain paramount, the resources of the intelligence
community have been and can be of great use to economic and
S&T policy makers in making decisions that affect the health of
our economy.
While the intelligence community has turned out economic
intelligence for many years, the process by which requirements
are set and analysis and estimates performed is far from mature
when measured against the more traditional national security
activities. If our intelligence resources are to be used wisely and
well, we will need to effect greater coordination between the
Intelligence and S&T communities, as well as a better under-
standing of the functions of intelligence in the policy community.
CONCLUSION
The evolving world security environment presents the United
States with a new set of national security problems that differ
strikingly from those of the past. Bush Administration invest-
ments in defense research and development, and our defense
and intelligence S&T policies and programs, are designed to
help preserve for future generations the margin of technological
superiority the United States enjoys today.
E
Science, Technology
and Foreign Policy
THE INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY FRAMEWORK of American
science and technology, which has been in place for nearly a
half century, emerged from the critical national needs of World
War II. Our science and technology policies in the post-War
decades were further influenced significantly by the internation-
al backdrop of the Cold War and our competition with the Soviet
Union in weapons and space. Profound world political changes
in recent years will necessarily redefine our national security
needs. It remains clear, however, that national security is depen-
dent on steady scientific and technological advances and that
the future course of our science and technology enterprise will
continue to be influenced by worldwide political developments.
In more recent decades, the economic dimensions of interna-
tional relations have grown sharply in importance. The key role
of science and technology in economic growth has become
widely recognized around the world. As other nations expand
their R&D activities and capabilities, the U.S. science and tech-
nology enterprise has to adopt a more global outlook and adjust
its international scientific and technical relations.
Another set of issues which has gained worldwide attention
over the past decade pertains to the environment. Those global
concerns involve both economic issues and scientific and tech-
nological ones. As an increasing number of governments
becomes concerned with policies for mitigating environmental
degradation and ensuring sustainable development, the need
increases for a reliable scientific and economic understanding of
the relevant physical and human phenomena and the impact of
technologies on the environment. Much of that understanding
requires large scale and long-term internationally coordinated
research programs.
THE GROWING INTERNATIONALIZATION OF
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Despite the importance of the international context for the devel-
opment of American science and technology following World
War II, the emergence of the United States as the preeminent
91
92
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
world performer of research and development resulted in an ini-
tial tendency toward self-sufficiency and insularity. In the first
two post-War decades, international interactions were not
insignificant, but tended to be initiated from outside the United
States. This was because of the attractiveness of America's sys-
tem of higher education in science and engineering and of its
research laboratories to the scientific communities of other
nations. Although the shift away from that situation is still in its
early stages, all evidence suggests that change is occurring at a
very rapid rate, as more and more of our research and educa-
tional institutions turn outward and international ties are recog-
nized to be more important to their activities.
As reliance on science and technology for economic develop-
ment and competitiveness becomes more widespread and as
more nations invest greater resources in research, development,
and science and engineering education, the number and size of
technical communities within which U.S. research institutions
might establish productive partnerships increases. Furthermore,
as important scientific and technological accomplishments occur
more widely throughout the world, the interest of the United
States scientists and engineers in tracking the technical activities
of other countries and in becoming involved in them is also
bound to increase.
At the same time, the United States, with its large, diverse and
open research and educational systems, continues to be the
world's most attractive partner for technical cooperation. As the
level of science and technology activities in other countries
increases, an ever expanding number of researchers and stu-
dents seeks scientific and technological cooperation and educa-
tion in the United States. Because of this, our national scientific
and technological resources constitute an important aspect of
international diplomacy.
There is, in fact, a clear trend toward a growing scientific and
technological interaction between the United States and other
countries. The dynamics of that interaction are largely driven by
industry, the university sector and individual scientists and engi-
neers from all sectors, private and public.
The greatest interaction takes place in the industrial sector, a
reflection of industry's dominant role in national R&D activities.
For example, in the United States, the Federal Republic of
Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Japan, about 70
percent of all R&D is performed in the industrial sector.
Multinational firms by their nature have a global perspective
and are increasingly making technical alliances on an inter-
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND FOREIGN POLICY
national basis. Much of this is done through direct investment,
transfers of technical know-how to their subsidiaries, and trade
in high technology goods and services. Joint ventures are also
becoming increasingly common.
Foreign investment in U.S. high technology firms and univer-
sities within the United States is growing and U.S. manufactur-
ing firms are also increasing their investments abroad. In 1989,
the U.S. overseas investment in R&D was equivalent to 9 percent
of industry's own domestic R&D investments-up from 6 percent
Since World War
in 1985. Foreign company R&D investments in the United States
II, the United
have also grown since 1985; in the late eighties they accounted
States has
for 11 percent of all industries' self-financed R&D performance in
hosted the
the United States. Illustrative of such international industrial
largest number
activity, IBM'S wholly-owned subsidiary in Japan has expanded
of foreign stu-
its Japanese R&D operations and added a new science center in
dents of any
Tokyo. Dupont has built a new technical research institute near
country-over
Yokohama. Eastman Kodak, W.R. Grace, Hewlett-Packard,
366,000 in 1989.
Motorola, Texas Instruments and Upjohn are among the many
corporations which have recently invested, or have plans to
invest, in R&D facilities in Japan.
Universities also occupy a very important place in internation-
al scientific relations. Since World War II, the United States has
hosted the largest number of foreign students of any country-
over 366,000 in 1989. Although this represents only 2.7 percent of
total U.S. enrollment, the impact on our scientific system is signif-
icant for a number of reasons. First, about half of those foreign
students are enrolled in science and engineering fields. Second,
the presence of foreign students and graduates is quite marked
at the graduate levels in science and engineering fields.
For example, by the mid 1980s, one-quarter of the full-time
faculty in mechanical and civil engineering and one-fifth of
those in chemical engineering had foreign bachelor's degrees.
In 1989, more than half of all engineering, and almost half of all
computer sciences, doctoral degrees granted by U.S. universities
went to foreign students. Many of these doctorate students
remain in the United States and become part of the U.S. work
force. Many of those who return to their own countries maintain
collaborative ties with U.S. researchers and are effective
"ambassadors" on behalf of the United States.
Thousands of Federal or federally-supported scientists and
engineers in both the civilian and the defense sectors are also
involved in international cooperation, much of it facilitated by
about six hundred bilateral agreements between Federal agen-
cies and their foreign counterparts. Although statistics are not
94
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
maintained in this area, available evidence suggests that there
is a long-term trend toward increasing numbers of personnel
and projects. Interaction with personnel and institutions over-
seas reflect the full scope of technical activities of the Federal
government, from basic science and health to energy and agri-
culture. The interests of Federal scientists and engineers in inter-
national cooperation are similar to those in other sectors, espe-
cially the universities: access to technical data and information
from other countries and about foreign locales (such as geologi-
cal, climate or epidemiological data); economies resulting from
shared facilities and instrumentation; and intellectual interaction
with foreign scientific talent made possible by mutual exchange
visits between research laboratories.
IN PURSUIT OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST: THE FEDERAL ROLE
Industry and academe as well as individual scientists and engi-
neers in all sectors (including government laboratories) provide
the fabric of international scientific and technological relations
by their own transnational activities. The role of the Federal
Government is that of shaping or directing those relations in
ways that advance the national interest.
Economic and National Security Interests-Among the many
dimensions of the national interest are economic well-being and
national security. The international flows of technological knowl-
edge and information and of technology itself have a complex
but direct impact on those dimensions of the national interest.
Accordingly, the Federal Government plays an active role in
managing those flows-using a combination of inhibitive or
facilitative mechanisms, and working bilaterally or multilateral-
ly as appropriate.
For example, the U.S. Trade Representative, with the Depart-
ments of Commerce, State, and other agencies, acts to enforce
U.S. trade laws and to promote the international competitiveness
of the U.S. economy. Enforcement of intellectual property rights
protection helps to ensure that the fruits of innovation are
rewarded and that incentives remain to undertake economically
risky research. The Trade Representative's office also negotiates
and enforces bilateral trade agreements affecting sectors of the
economy dominated by technology, including semiconductors,
aerospace, automobiles, and machine tools. In addition, there
are numerous programs that the Department of Commerce and
other agencies run to assist the competitiveness of U.S. firms
abroad, especially in high technology sectors which constitute
about one fifth of U.S. manufactures.
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND FOREIGN POLICY
The U.S. government also acts to protect the national security
interests of the United States by exercising control over the prolif-
eration of militarily significant technologies. Through an intera-
gency export control process-and with the help of our allies
and like-minded third countries-the United States administers a
licensing regime which requires exporters to obtain government
approved export licenses for a range of sensitive goods.
These goods include weapons and defense technologies (includ-
ing chemical and biological weapons), nuclear and nuclear-
related technologies, missile technologies, and high technology
commercial goods that have a "dual use" in both civilian and
military applications. Quite aside from the regulation of interna-
tional technology transfer, the Federal government's annual
support of approximately $40 billion in defense R&D is directly
related to U.S. national security interests. Both bilaterally and
multilaterally, the United States is working to advance our inter-
est in protecting the global environment. Through technical
assistance from U.S.AID and other U.S. agencies as well as
through U.S. involvement with organizations such as the World
Bank, the UN Environmental Program, the UN Development
Program, and the Global Environmental Facility, we hope to
show developing countries that environmental protection need
not come at the expense of economic development. Under the
Brady plan, we are promoting debt-for-nature swaps. These
permit forgiveness of a portion of a developing country's bilater-
al debt to the United States in return for a commitment to invest a
like amount of money in domestic environmental projects.
Foreign Policy Interests-It has long been recognized that
international cooperation in science and technology has the
potential of serving the foreign policy interests of the United
States. The growing internationalization of science and technol-
ogy noted in the previous section has tended to raise that poten-
tial. Because an expanding number of countries has a growing
interest in technical interaction with the United States, the poten-
tial for mutually beneficial cooperation in science and technolo-
gy can also be used in the diplomatic process to advance U.S.
foreign policy interests.
On the other hand, it is important to recognize that interna-
tional science and technology cooperation has a dynamic of its
own and is not a process which the Federal government can or
should try to control. For a number of reasons, the mechanism
that links international scientific and technological cooperation
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
to foreign policy is a loose one at best. Our political system is not
prone to applying stringent controls to the activities of our acad-
emic or industrial sectors, beyond the immediate needs of
national security. Secondly, the United States has historically
supported free and open scientific communication (again, within
the constraints of national security) and has sought to encourage
other countries to emulate the openness of American society.
Thirdly, international technical cooperation tends to be very
much in the scientific (and, somewhat less consistently, techno-
logical) interests of the United States as well as that of partner
countries. This is increasingly true as other countries increase
their R&D investments and gain leadership in technical areas.
Thus, if we inhibit cooperation for reasons of foreign policy (or
trade policy or national security), we may be doing SO at the
expense of our scientific interests. Consequently, international
technical cooperation is generally more useful as a foreign poli-
cy "carrot" than as a foreign policy "stick".
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND FOREIGN POLICY:
INTEGRATIVE MECHANISMS
Federal involvement in international science and technology
affairs involves close interplay among three Executive Branch
elements: the Department of State, a cluster of about 20 Federal
scientific and technical agencies and organizations, and the
Executive Office of the President.
The Department of State carries out numerous functions with
respect to international scientific affairs. The Department has
statutory responsibility for concluding and managing interna-
tional agreements, thereby providing the formal legal frame-
work for cooperation. It is, at present, responsible for the approxi-
mately 600 bilateral agreements for science and technology
cooperation alone between the United States and 120 foreign
countries. The Department also participates actively in the
negotiation of technology-related trade issues. Internally, the
Department ensures coordination of science and technology
issues worldwide primarily through its Bureau of Oceans, and
International Environmental and Scientific Affairs and coordina-
tion between technical cooperation and other bilateral or
regional issues through its regional bureaus. Of special impor-
tance to the implementation of international science and tech-
nology affairs is the Department of State's overseas representa-
tion and, in particular, its network of over two dozen full-time sci-
ence and technology officers posted in over 20 missions around
the world. The Department's overseas posts provide important
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND FOREIGN POLICY
liaison, communication and information functions, all of which
support the management and further development of technical
cooperation. The Department's overseas representation and
reporting function in science and technology is, in some cases,
usefully augmented by personnel from technical agencies.
The Federal government's technical agencies provide sub-
stance to the international agreements by planning and manag-
ing cooperative programs. These programs cover a diversity of
fields and types of projects, as benefits the mutual interests of the
International
United States and the partner country. In many cases, especially
technical coop-
in basic research, the cooperation provides reciprocal access to
eration tends to
locale-specific technical data in such areas as geology, seismol-
be very much in
ogy, climate and oceans research, epidemiology, or demogra-
the scientific
phy. In other cases, cooperation emphasizes joint efforts to
interests of the
resolve common problems such as new energy sources, clean
United States.
coal technology, energy conservation, natural hazard mitiga-
tion, disease prevention, or waste management. Cost-sharing of
existing research facilities and instrumentation such as land-
based observatories and particle accelerators as well as joint
planning and financing of the megaprojects of the future are
also critical elements of government-to-government cooperation.
Most elements of the Executive Office of the President are
involved in some aspect of international scientific and techno-
logical affairs, participating in a complex policy development
process which ultimately integrates the various components of
the national interest affected by science and technology. The
National Security Council utilizes science and technology as one
instrument in the broad policy process. The office of the U.S.
Trade Representative is most centrally involved in technology-
related trade issues. The Council of Economic Advisors and the
Cabinet Councils and the Competitiveness Council have an
overall responsibility for economic competitiveness, in which
technology plays a key role. The National Space Council
addresses space policy with its myriad technological compo-
nents. And, since policy and budgets are inseparable, the Office
of Management and Budget also plays a key role in the process.
When it comes to integrating the specifics of those science,
technology and foreign policy issues, the White House Office of
Science and Technology Policy plays a strategic role. Scientific
and technological issues can have strong international and for-
eign policy implications. This encompasses, for example, such
challenges as integrating global change research international-
ly and addressing international cooperation in big science pro-
jects such as those in high energy physics.
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
It is, of course, sometimes difficult to neatly divide issues into
two simple categories and there are in fact many policy levels at
which science, technology and foreign policy are closely inte-
grated. The challenge within the Administration is to focus col-
lectively and effectively on policy areas where the foreign policy
and national security issues are of exceptional importance (e.g.,
cooperation with specific nations), or where the financial stakes
are high (e.g. international cooperation in large scale projects)
as well as those in between.
International science issues which have been coordinated
across the Federal government by the White House recently
include global change, the protection of intellectual property
rights under science and technology agreements, big science
projects, and cooperative opportunities with the European
Community, Central Europe, Japan, and developing countries.
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND FOREIGN POLICY:
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
This section highlights some of the major international scientific
and technological activities of the Administration during the past
two years. The examples serve to illustrate the integration of sci-
ence and technology with foreign policy and broad national
interests.
Reorienting Our Strategic Relationships: The Former Soviet
Union-The renewal and blossoming of government-to-govern-
ment technical cooperation between the United States and the
Soviet Union was a key element in the reshaping of the strategic
relationship between the two countries. For example, the 1989
Agreement for Cooperation in the Field of Basic Scientific
Research not only provided the framework for U.S. and Soviet
scientists and engineers to conduct activities of mutual scientific
benefit, but also served as a symbol of the U.S. commitment to
support the process of profound political and economic reform
occurring in the Soviet Union and its republics. High level meet-
ings in the past two years served to underscore U.S. interest in
the cooperation, as did renewed Soviet participation in the
Ocean Drilling Program and discussions on solar system explo-
ration.
Balancing Our Interests: China-Cooperation in science and
technology between the United States and China at the govern-
mental level began in 1979 and was keyed to political and eco-
nomic changes which were underway in China at that time. The
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND FOREIGN POLICY
U.S.-China agreement constituted both tangible and symbolic
involvement of the United States with some of the most progres-
sive elements of Chinese society. Despite the setback of the 1989
massacre at Tiananmen, and a wave of political repression
since that time, China's scientific and technological community
remains professionally active and committed to China's modern-
ization. On the premise that the United States should remain
involved with and supportive of China's progressive elements,
and following more than two years of negotiations to ensure the
protection of U.S. intellectual property generated under the
cooperative program, the U.S.-China Agreement for Scientific
and Technological Cooperation was renewed in 1991.
Fostering Democracy and Capitalism: Central Europe — The
breakup of the Warsaw Pact and the internal political upheavals
in Central and Eastern Europe of the past two years are among
the most profound and dramatic changes in the world in the lat-
ter half of the Twentieth Century. The consolidation of these
changes and the rebuilding of political and economic systems
are a major challenge for those nations. The United States and
its West European allies have a strong interest in, and commit-
ment to, ensuring that the transitional process occurring in
Central Europe results in political democratization and a shift to
market economies. Here, too, cooperation in science and tech-
nology, can have strong implications for the growth of Central
European economies and their integration into the world econo-
my. Scientific cooperation will also support the revitalization of
Eastern European universities and research institutions. Those
institutions are likely to play an important role in building plural-
istic and democratic societies.
Dealing with the Competition: Japan and the Other Asian
Economies-The economic success of Japan and its Asian
neighbors which has derived largely from technology manufac-
ture, has prompted those countries to further advance and refine
national R&D strategies. Not only are Japan, South Korea,
Taiwan and others committed to increased investments in R&D,
but they are paying increased attention to building up their
basic research capability. It is essential that the United States be
well informed about scientific and technological developments
in the dynamic nations of East Asia and maintain a framework
for productive partnerships in pre-competitive research.
Because of the commercially competitive context in which our
technical cooperation takes place, the science and technology
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
agreement with Japan, which was re-negotiated in the late
1980s, emphasizes strongly the importance of equitable access
and adequate protection of intellectual property rights. By pro-
viding a framework which makes mutually beneficial coopera-
tion possible in a competitive environment, the U.S.-Japan
agreement and further refinements developed by the
Administration in 1990 have served as a model for technical
cooperation between the U.S. and other countries around the
world.
Adjusting to Regional Integration: the European Community-
Throughout history, the opposing forces of integration and frag-
mentation have tugged and pulled the international community.
Today this is doubly true. Science and technology are forces that
integrate the community of nations, and have always been high-
ly internationalized activities. The countries of Western Europe
are well into an experiment to create a unified economic market
among members of the European Community. The 1992 target
date for market unification actually represents the culmination of
a several-decade long process that may ultimately fully inte-
grate the economies, societies, and polities of Europe together.
Science and technology are important elements in this process.
European integration, which may ultimately come to include
Central Europe (as it already has in the case of Germany) pre-
sents a challenge to the United States in terms of the need to
redefine relationships while maintaining the historically strong
and complex fabric of bilateral European relationships with the
United States. The United States is faced with new opportunities
in the growing technical programs of the European community
during this critical transitional period. In order to facilitate coop-
eration and better communication, the United States and the
European Community established a Joint Consultative Group on
Science and Technology in 1991. That group has begun discus-
sions on a variety of topics including cooperation in large pro-
jects and the transnational mobility of scientists and engineers.
North-South Relations: Global Environmental Issues-A scien-
tific and technical understanding of our physical and human
environment is indispensable to sustainable economic develop-
ment. It is well understood that science and technology are key
to the solution of many of the environmental problems faced by
developing countries and countries in economic transition.
These countries look to the United States for technical coopera-
tion to address problems such as the food and energy sources,
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND FOREIGN POLICY
environmental degradation, population, nutrition and health
concerns.
The Bush Administration supports cooperation in science and
technology with Latin American countries and is encouraging
new efforts and the maintenance of ongoing collaboration.
These efforts involve a wide range of developing countries
including Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Uruguay, and Venezuela, as
well as increasing regional cooperation on important topics.
During the White House Conference on the Science and
Economics of Global Change in April 1990, President Bush
endorsed the concept of establishing a network of regional
research institutes for collaborative research on the science and
economics of global change which would include a Western
Hemisphere research institute based on cooperation between
the countries of North and South America.
LOOKING TOWARD THE FUTURE
As we look toward the next century, two fundamental trends are
likely to continue. The first is that humankind will be faced with
problems of ever increasing complexity posed by the growing
world population, the finite supply of certain resources, the phys-
ical changes in our environment and the need for economic
growth and military security. Those challenges are international
in nature, not just national or regional. The second trend follows
from the first: in response to problems and challenges, a grow-
ing number of national communities around the world will sub-
stantially increase their efforts in science and technology. Those
efforts will not only mobilize the intellectual resources necessary
to unlock the secrets of nature, but they also fuel both the incre-
mental advances and the dramatic breakthroughs that will
ensure the long-term well-being of humankind. A vigorous poli-
cy toward international cooperation in science and technology is
essential as we move into the Twenty First Century.
AT&T/BELL LABORATORIES
Science, Technology and
Competitiveness
IN A SPEECH to the recipients of the National Medals of Science
and National Medals of Technology in the fall of 1990, President
Bush said, "Today our government must help carry research for-
ward and contribute to the development of generic technologies
that build on basic discoveries. If America is to maintain and
strengthen our competitive position, we must continue not only
to create new technologies, but learn to more effectively trans-
late those technologies into commercial products. In this way,
we can help leverage the R&D of the private sector, helping
whole industries advance in an increasingly competitive global
market."
The 1991 and 1992 Economic Reports of the President to the
Congress emphasized the role of economic growth in bringing
new jobs, raising living standards, and increasing national
wealth. In an era of increased international competition, eco-
nomic growth is enhanced by comparative advantage. In some
countries, that advantage is cheap labor; in others, it is access to
markets. In industrialized countries, such as the United States,
superior technology is a principal source of comparative advan-
tage in the manufacture of products and the delivery of services.
More fundamentally, it is the integration of new technologies
into products, services, and the production system itself that is a
key to enhanced productivity and expanded productive capaci-
ty-a process that is widely acknowledged to be a critical strate-
gic element in the economy of virtually all modern industrial
nations.
The private sector has the principal role in identifying, devel-
oping, and applying technology for commercial products and
processes. As described in a report on U.S. Technology Policy,
the Federal government also has a role in establishing an eco-
nomic environment to encourage innovation, providing a stable
regulatory regime, helping to create a more educated work
force, seeking better international protection of intellectual prop-
erty, and similar actions. More specifically, the Federal govern-
ment can support technological innovation by investing in basic
research, by contributing to the development of generic, pre-
103
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
competitive technologies, by improving the transfer of Federally
funded technology to the private sector, and by catalyzing coop-
eration among industry, academia, and government.
The Bush Administration has taken a number of actions to
help advance America's competitive position through improve-
ments in technology. These include significant increases in basic
research funding, the establishment of the Council on
Competitiveness headed by the Vice-President, and the creation
of a coordinated, multi-agency R&D program and budget on the
generic, pre-competitive technology of high performance com-
puting. Additional evidence of concern with technology at the
highest level comes from the appointment of the President's
Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), and the
publication of a U.S. Technology Policy.
It must be emphasized that advances in technology alone
cannot ensure economic prosperity and national security. There
are, moreover, very real limits on what the Federal government
should do to promote technological success: the private sector
must carry the responsibility for developing commercial prod-
ucts. The government role is to foster a stable economic environ-
ment that is conducive to investment. A recent poll conducted by
the Industrial Research Institute of its membership, consisting of
the top-ranking R&D officials in many of America's leading com-
panies, underscored this division of responsibility. The members
were asked to rank five major factors contributing to the erosion
of U.S. industrial technology: "general management practices"
and "external financial pressures" were deemed most important,
according to those polled, while "federal technology policy" was
ranked fifth.
TECHNOLOGY, PRODUCTIVITY, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Economic growth occurs with the production and consumption
of more goods and services in an economy. But simply produc-
ing or consuming more goods and services does not lead to a
competitive economy. To be more competitive in today's interna-
tional markets, a nation must learn to produce higher quality
and greater variety of goods and services using fewer resources.
The degree to which more can be produced with less reflects
increases in productivity in the economy. Technology is one of
the fundamental forces driving increases in productivity and a
growing and competitive economy.
A basic input into the process of technological innovation is
research and development. Economists estimate that more than
one-third of the growth in the US economy since 1930 has been
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND COMPETITIVENESS
due to advances in knowledge. Evidence from economic studies
of the past four decades suggests that industry-financed R&D
alone accounts for about one-third of the annual average
growth of productivity over that period.
Currently, there is widespread concern that productivity
growth in the U.S. is not keeping pace with that of our industrial
trading partners and that as a result the Nation will lose its com-
petitive edge. As specifically documented in other reports, U.S.
productivity growth, on average, is not as high in recent years
The Bush
as it was in the 1960s. During the 1960s, the productivity of labor
Administration
(output per unit of labor) in the private sector increased on aver-
has taken a
age by 2.7 percent per year. This tremendous growth rate was
number of
due, in large part, to the widespread incorporation of technologi-
actions to help
cal and managerial advances into production systems; with
advance
more advanced equipment and machinery, one worker's output
America's com-
could be expanded dramatically. From 1973 through 1979, how-
petitive position
ever, the average rate of growth of labor productivity was only
through improve-
0.6 percent, increasing to 1.4 percent per year during the period
ments in tech-
1979 through 1986.
nology.
The use of labor productivity alone gives an incomplete pic-
ture of the economy's productivity; the effects of capital must also
be included. An advanced computer workstation may make an
engineer's labor more productive by multiple factors. But the
workstation is also an input into production. When returns to the
engineer (labor) and the workstation (capital) are calculated
together, this "multifactor productivity" is likely to be lower than
the productivity growth for labor alone. In fact, from 1960
through 1986, multifactor productivity has grown significantly
less than labor productivity. For the period 1960-73, the average
annual rate of growth of multifactor productivity was 1.8 percent,
for the period 1973 through 1979, the average annual rate of
growth fell to 0.1 percent. From 1979 through 1986 it increased to
0.5 percent, still far below the rates of growth experienced in the
1960s.
By any measure, however, the decline in productivity growth
of the economy as a whole is cause for concern. There is also a
marked differential in the productivity growth of different sectors
of the economy. The manufacturing sector, for example, experi-
enced the same slump in productivity growth as the aggregate
economy in the 1970s but rebounded sharply in the 1980s: labor
productivity in manufacturing grew on average by 3.2 percent
per year from 1960 to 1973, 1.4 percent from 1973 to 1979, and 3.5
percent from 1979 to 1986. In contrast, four service sectors-retail
trade, finance, insurance, and real estate-appear to have con-
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
tinued as "slow growth" productivity areas during the 1980s. A
major problem in interpreting overall productivity growth is that
productivity is difficult to measure for the service sector, which
accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. gross national product.
New capital investment and technological innovation are
expected to have their greatest effect on those industries that are
already of sufficient scale, degree of investment of capital rela-
tive to labor, and technological sophistication to be able to apply
technology effectively. Industries that meet these requirements
can be found in both the manufacturing and service sectors.
Technology, labor, and investment of capital are not indepen-
dent forces on innovation but are closely intertwined in the
process of economic growth. As suggested in the 1991 Economic
Report of the President, it is widely accepted that raising the rate
of capital investment can have multiple effects on the rate of eco-
nomic growth. New technologies can spur capital investment as
well as investment in improving the quality of labor through
education and training.
TECHNOLOGY POLICY
The goal of technology policy is to make the best use of technolo-
gy in achieving the national goals of improved quality of life for
all Americans, continued economic growth, and national securi-
ty. This policy explicitly recognizes that industry, academia, state
and local governments, and the Federal Government all have
roles to play.
The Private Sector and Industrial Innovation-America re-
mains the undisputed world leader in basic research. Yet basic
research clearly cannot be the only component of a nation's
R&D enterprise. Other nations have R&D enterprises that bring
great benefits to society yet include very little basic research.
Their firms are able to effectively exploit the results of basic
research, no matter where it is done. This is the stage of the inno-
vation process-between the generation of knowledge and its
application in the marketplace-that poses the greatest chal-
lenges to the United States.
In a comparative study of industrial innovation in the United
States and Japan, Edwin Mansfield showed that, on average, the
Japanese develop and commercially introduce new products
and processes faster and at less cost than the Americans,
although their advantage in this respect is not as great as is
sometimes claimed. Mansfield found that Japanese firms' cost
and time involved in bringing products based on internal R&D to
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND COMPETITIVENESS
the market is the same as for American firms, on average. But he
concluded that it takes a Japanese firm about 25 percent less
time and 50 percent less money to commercialize innovations
based on externally generated rather than internally developed
technology. Finally, according to Mansfield, the percentage of
innovation cost during product commercialization devoted in
Japan to tooling and manufacturing equipment is almost double
that in the U.S., which reflects Japan's emphasis on process engi-
neering and efficient manufacturing facilities. On the other
hand, according to Mansfield, the percentage of innovation cost
during product commercialization devoted to marketing start-up
is significantly higher in the U.S. than in Japan.
Comparison of the expenditures for R&D on product and
process technologies in Japan and the U.S. may help explain
some of the difference in overall performance. In the U.S., two-
thirds of industrial R&D expenditures are going to product tech-
nology and one-third to process technology. In Japan, the pat-
tern is reversed, with two-thirds of industrial R&D expenditure
directed to process technology. These results shed new light on a
major issue concerning industrial R&D in the U.S. Many
observers have criticized U.S. industry for neglecting process
innovation. The President's Commission on Industrial Competi-
tiveness in a 1985 report summed up the situation succinctly: "It
does us little good to design state-of-the-art products if, within a
short time, our foreign competitors can manufacture them more
cheaply."
Advanced process and manufacturing technologies are
increasingly essential to more rapid product introduction,
increased flexibility, and the integration of product design, pro-
duction, and quality control. Integration of these advanced tech-
nologies and techniques can contribute to remaining competi-
tive in the world marketplace.
Advanced manufacturing involves far more than simple facto-
ry automation, as the findings of a five-year study of the global
automotive industry by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolgy
confirm. Instead, both new technologies and changes in man-
agement and engineering practices are necessary. Computer
integrated manufacturing, for example, encompasses the opera-
tion of virtually the entire enterprise by integrating company-
wide information systems, plant-wide planning and control sys-
tems, and individual work stations or computer-controlled
machinery. Combined with advanced systems management
technologies including advanced software tools and extensive
databases, and properly developed standards, computer inte-
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
grated manufacturing allows flexible manufacturing in which
production can be switched rapidly from one product to another.
In considering innovation broadly throughout the economy, it
is apparent that the returns on expensive investments in generic
enabling technologies can seldom be maximized-and in some
cases even recouped-unless the results are used in several
applications, often in different industries. There is thus an
increasing need for cross-industry cooperation in creating and
deploying these technologies.
These new technologies-process and product-implemented
effectively, can improve efficiency and the ability to adjust rapid-
ly to changing market conditions. Advanced product, process
and manufacturing technologies, when combined with effective
management, can provide the basis for industry to bring a
stream of innovative, cost competitive, quality products and ser-
vices into the marketplace.
The Federal Government and Technological Innovation-
Federal support for technological innovation begins with sup-
port for basic sciences, which provide the underpinnings of new
technology. Since scientific discoveries that spark technological
development are inherently unpredictable in both timing and
content, research support for basic sciences that is broadly
based is most likely to yield useful advances that can ultimately
be translated into new technologies.
Federal support for technological innovation requires a
greater selectivity and concentration of resources on activities
that offer the potential of large benefits to the economy as a
whole but do not offer the prospect of adequate profit to any pri-
vate firm that might undertake the research. This is the rationale
for focusing Federal support on a group of generic, pre-competi-
tive technologies that are important in both public and private
sectors and that are widely perceived to be critical for competi-
tiveness in the marketplace of the future. In this context, generic
technologies mean those that have the potential to be applied to
a wide variety of products and processes in many industries. A
"pre-competitive technology" is one where the commercial
potential can be clearly assessed without further development.
Operationally, a pre-competitive technology is one on which a
company is willing to spend money in cooperative joint ventures
including potential competitors. Results from pre-competitive
technology can be shared by a group of companies without
reducing the incentives for any of them to further develop propri-
etary products based on the work.
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND COMPETITIVENESS
One example of an important pre-competitive technology
meriting focused Federal support is the area of Materials, a field
that is experiencing what only can be described as a revolution.
At the center of this revolution is the development of new materi-
als with vastly superior properties and completely new ways of
producing them. Together, these changes are beginning to
make available materials that would have been unthinkable a
decade ago. Increasingly, engineers can tailor the composition
of certain materials atom by atom, creating so-called "designer
Federal support
materials" which have precisely the desired combination of
for technological
strength, weight, corrosion resistance or other properties. The
innovation
potential impact of advanced materials includes lighter, more
requires a
agile, or more "stealthy" airplanes, higher performance engines,
greater selec-
novel medical applications, corrosion-proof auto bodies, and
tivity and con-
more energy-efficient construction materials. Advanced materi-
centration of
als promise significant improvement in the performance of items
resources,
produced and used by virtually every sector of the economy.
focusing on a
Still other pre-competitive enabling technology areas, where
group of generic,
R&D investments can have a very high leverage effect on indus-
pre-competitive
trial competitiveness, include: information and communication
technologies.
technologies (critical to the functioning of our increasingly "elec-
tronic" society); air and transportation systems (which provide
the basic infrastructure for the whole economy); manufacturing
methods and processes (the ultimate means by which other
technologies are incorporated into products); and the life sci-
ences (where increased understanding and control over life
processes has already had major positive impacts in health care
and agriculture). Energy technologies are still another critical set
of inputs to our economic system, particularly since the uses, by-
products and sources of energy can all have substantial and
long lasting effects on both the local and world wide environ-
ment.
Federal R&D responsibilities under technology policy thus
include increased investment in basic research, appropriately
limited participation with the private sector in precompetitive
research on generic, enabling technologies, continued develop-
ment of defense technologies for which the Federal government
is the sole or major consumer, and encouragement of mutually
beneficial international cooperation in science and technology.
Cooperation among Industry, Academia, and Government-
Technology policy calls for close cooperation among the Federal
research system, private firms, and academic researchers.
After World War II, there was a separation of science and
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
technology accompanied by a de facto division of responsibility
between the Federal government (science) and industry (tech-
nology). The separation seemed logical in light of the then
prevalent view of innovation as a linear track along which
developments moved. Technology was viewed as a separate,
downstream process from research and development. But the
process of technological innovation is not akin to a pipeline.
Instead, all parts of the complicated process may take place
simultaneously with complex feedback loops, including the ini-
tial perception of a need that leads to innovation.
This is not to say that the private sector has not benefitted from
Federal investment in research. Historically, the Federal govern-
ment has supported generic technology work for two reasons: to
meet its own needs in such areas as defense and space, and to
meet broader national needs that can be seen as benefitting all
of society, such as better health care, the clean-up of pollution, or
a stronger transportation or communications infrastructure.
However, this R&D also has resulted, over time, in major ad-
vances in the private sector. Particular examples are the devel-
opment of commercial aircraft, the creation and growth of the
computer industry, and the strength of American agriculture. But
the impact is much more pervasive because Federal R&D has
helped to establish the science and technology base from which
industry has been able to draw in developing commercial prod-
ucts and processes.
It has become apparent that many of the reasons for govern-
ment funding of basic research apply equally to certain types of
applied research. One motivating factor for the government to
assume major responsibility for the funding of basic research is
that the activities entail high costs and high risk and because no
one firm can capture a return sufficient to justify their invest-
ment. It is now known that at an early, or pre-competitive, stage,
many technologies share these same characteristics. Many of
these technologies also share the characteristic of basic research
that their "results" can be applied to a wide variety of problem
areas. In this sense, the technologies are generic or enabling
and have the potential to be applied in a wide variety of prod-
ucts or processes in many industries.
Pre-competitive technologies are ripe for collaboration among
firms within an industry, between firms in different industries
and among industry, government, and academia in their further
development. One such program now under way is the Ad-
vanced Technology Program, administered by the National
Institute of Standards and Technology within the Department of
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND COMPETITIVENESS
Commerce. The program is aimed at assisting businesses in
developing pre-competitive generic technologies that will wide-
ly benefit the nation. It is designed to help support joint ventures
and other research arrangements that have been developed by
industry, including industry-academia cooperation, for which
industry will pay at least half of the cost. Among the eleven R&D
programs selected in 1991 for funding under the Advanced
Technology Program are research on high temperature super-
conductivity, improved manufacturing techniques for electron-
ics, and methods for improving the accuracy of machine tools.
The National Science Foundation's Engineering Research
Centers bring engineering and scientific disciplines together to
address fundamental issues crucial to the next generation of
technological advances. The program is a partnership between
the Federal Government, State governments, academic institu-
tions, and over 400 industrial firms. Industry-University Coopera-
tive Research Centers, also sponsored by the National Science
Foundation, encourage interaction between industry and uni-
versities by developing research programs defined by the indus-
tries supporting each center. On average, Federal funds have
been matched 10 to one by industries. There currently are 45
centers operating. One example of the potential of such coopera-
tive efforts is the development, in response to industry's needs, of
a technique for the measurement of very small quantities of
impurities in gases by the Cooperative Research Center at the
University of Arizona. The technique has wide potential applica-
tion in pollution monitoring and process control in the semicon-
ductor industry.
Another type of cooperation in research is exemplified by
SEMATECH, a private sector consortium formed to conduct R&D on
improved semiconductor manufacturing processes. SEMATECH
has received half of its funding from the Department of Defense
and the other half from participating companies. SEMATECH has
given top priority to improving relations between chipmakers
and equipment producers to facilitate the development of a
range of high-quality, affordable equipment and materials for
American producers.
Transferring Federal Technology to Industry-The develop-
ment of working relationships between scientists, engineers, and
managers in industry, academia, and government has the
added advantage of fostering technology transfer, an important
component of U.S. Technology Policy. The term "technology
transfer" implies to many people that technology can be neatly
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
identified, wrapped up, and transported cleanly to another orga-
nization where it can be unwrapped and applied without signifi-
cant change. This is, of course, an oversimplification. In fact, one
of the most effective ways that technology can be transferred is
by being carried in the minds of people as they move from one
organization to another. Short of the wholesale transfer of scien-
tists and engineers, however, there are many steps that can be
taken to foster the transfer of appropriate technology from labo-
ratories in all sectors to the economic agents that can best put
them to use in competitively producing products and services.
Concerted Federal activity in technology transfer was reinvig-
orated during the 1980's, starting with the Stevenson-Wydler
Technology Innovation Act of 1980. Among the stated purposes
of the act was to promote technology development through the
establishment of organizations within the executive branch to
study and stimulate technology, and stimulate improved utiliza-
tion of federally funded technology developments by State and
local governments and the private sector.
The passage of the Federal Technology Transfer Act of 1986
amended the Stevenson-Wydler Act to encourage further the
transfer of Federal technology to industry. Among its provisions
are those that encourage Federal laboratories to perform coop-
erative research with outside parties, as long as the research is
consistent with the mission of the laboratory, and permit private
companies to obtain advance rights to patent technology devel-
oped under the cooperative agreements. The Act also allows
laboratory directors to negotiate other types of intellectual prop-
erty right assignment agreements and the sharing of royalties.
Thus, the key principles of decentralization of technology man-
agement, interaction with private industry throughout the R&D
process, and suitable incentives for the federal laboratory work-
er as well as private industry were all addressed in the 1986 Act.
Since inception of the Act, Cooperative Research and Devel-
opments Agreements (CRADA's) at federal agencies have
increased from 33 in FY 1987 to 460 in FY 1990.
Particular attention has been paid to reducing the barriers
faced by small and medium sized manufacturers in adopting
new technology. The U.S. is home to more than 350,000 manufac-
turing companies with 500 or fewer people on the payroll; these
firms produce over half of the value added by all U.S. manufac-
turing. The National Institute of Standards and Technology has
established five Regional Manufacturing Technology Centers
which provide small businesses with up-to-date practical infor-
mation and expertise on manufacturing technologies and prac-
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND COMPETITIVENESS
tices, from quality control to computer-aided design and manu-
facturing, to "just-in-time" production systems. The centers do
not conduct research; they provide assistance through factory
service visits, technical training, and direct help with the intro-
duction of modern manufacturing equipment. Whether these
centers are an effective and efficient means of addressing the
problems of small manufacturers awaits evaluation.
Any consideration of how best to exploit Federal development
of technologies must include an extremely valuable but often
There exists an
overlooked asset. In addition to the nation's researchers in acad-
enormous
emia and industry, there exists an enormous national resource
national re-
in the professional personnel, expertise, and infrastructure resi-
source in the
dent in over 700 Federally-owned laboratories. The federal gov-
professional
ernment invests over $21 billion a year in these laboratories-
personnel,
almost a third of the total federal R&D budget. A continuing
expertise, and
challenge is to involve these laboratories in joint R&D projects
infrastructure
with universities and industry SO that they can play a more effec-
resident in
tive role in transferring technology to the private sector.
over 700
In addition to targeted programs for technology transfer, the
Federally-owned
Federal government helps to sustain the pool of technically
laboratories.
trained manpower through the support of graduate students on
fellowships and traineeships or receiving research assistant-
ships as part of Federal grants. In 1986, there were already over
two-and-one-half million scientists and engineers employed in
U.S. industry. One reason for industry interest in cost sharing for
activities such as the National Science Foundation's Engineering
Research Centers may be to develop contacts with students
who, after matriculation, can be hired into the firm.
CONCLUSION
The private sector has the principal role in innovation and in
identifying and utilizing technologies for commercial products
and processes. Even in meeting its own needs, the government
relies on the private sector to undertake the development
process, and the government's role is to provide an economic
and legal environment conducive to commercialization of R&D.
In certain circumstances, however, the Federal government and
the private sector share responsibility for supporting appropriate
pre-competitive research on generic enabling technologies.
However, it is not an appropriate role for the Government to
develop commercial products, whether they are based on tech-
nologies developed with Federal R&D support or not. Moreover,
where appropriate, the private sector must take an active role in
guiding the innovation process from the outset to ensure that
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
R&D fits market needs. In providing a cooperative framework for
the private sector and government, the Department of Commerce
has announced a Strategic Partnership Initiative through which
it will provide a cross-industry forum for industry to discuss the
formation of partnerships of noncompeting firms to develop and
apply large-scale enabling technologies.
Thus, the Federal government, because of both its interest in
maintaining a competitive economy and the resources it com-
mits to R&D for non-commercial purposes, can be a partner in
the innovation process. In addition, the Government is in a
unique position to encourage improvements in private sector
competitive performance. An example of this is the Malcolm
Baldrige National Quality Award established by the Congress
and President Reagan in 1987. This award, which recognizes
U.S. companies that excel in quality achievements and total
quality management, has had a tremendous effect on those
companies that have prepared to compete for it: some compa-
nies have experienced productivity gains of 20 to 30 percent just
in the process of competing. One company was SO impressed
with the gains to be made in the process of qualifying for the
competition that it required all of its suppliers to compete for the
award as well.
Additional Federal responsibilities include creation of an
environment conducive to technological competitiveness
through such measures as reducing the capital gains tax and
creating a permanent tax credit for research and experimenta-
tion, removing obstacles to innovation such as anti-trust uncer-
tainties about joint research and production ventures, and nego-
tiating international protection of intellectual property. The
Federal government also seeks to revitalize education at all lev-
els and to encourage States, localities, and universities as they
improve science and technology education.
Global Change
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE EARTH has been changing contin-
ually due to interactions of natural forces over the millions of
years of its lifetime. Ice ages have come and gone and climatic
regimes have fluctuated between dry and wet and between hot
and cold. However, during the past century, human activities
have also begun to significantly alter the environment of the
planet. People have begun to change the surface of the Earth
by clearing forests, building cities, and converting wild lands for
agricultural and industrial uses. Humans have also altered the
composition of the Earth's atmosphere through such activities as
the burning of fossil fuels, the production and release of industri-
al compounds, and the expansion of agriculture.
Already some of these anthropogenic factors have resulted in
a significant impact on the Earth's environment. For example,
human activities have lead to the partial degradation of the
atmosphere's protective ozone shield, exposing both humans
and other forms of life to higher levels of ultraviolet radiation.
The degradation has been most severe in a polar region remote
from population or industrial centers, where airborne industrial
compounds combine with unique meteorological conditions to
form the "ozone hole" above Antarctica, demonstrating the glob-
al reach of human activities. The speed with which the "ozone
hole" has developed provides dramatic evidence that human
activities can change the global environment within just a few
decades. New results from the International Ozone Scientific
Assessment of 1991 also show, for the first time, evidence of
decreases of ozone in spring and summer in both the northern
and southern hemispheres at middle and high latitudes, as well
as in the southern winter.
A far more complex potential threat to the global environment
is the possibility, that human actions will lead to an intensifica-
tion of the "greenhouse effect" and thus to a significant warming
of the Earth's climate. Such changes in the Earth's environment
involve the entire Earth system-including the land surface, its
vegetative cover, the oceans and their currents, the polar ice
caps, as well as the atmosphere and now, human activity.
117
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Reliable predictions of the magnitude and rate of climate
change as well as the impacts-global or regional-of these
changes are not yet possible.
Nonetheless, these fundamental changes in the environment
of the Earth transcend national boundaries, and scientists and
governments around the world are working together to build a
solid scientific understanding of both natural and human
induced climate change in order to have a sound information
base for policy-making.
POLICY RELEVANCE
To create prudent environmental policies will require a much
improved scientific understanding of the Earth system, how it
changes naturally, how human activities change it, and how it
might respond to future changes in environmental conditions.
The Bush Administration has been giving priority attention to
research on global change through a special Presidential
Initiative called the United States Global Change Research
Program (US/GCRP). This effort was designed to provide strategic
input to the domestic and international policy-making needs and
to provide the decision-making process with the strongest scien-
tific information base possible. In addition, the US/GCRP also
specifically addresses the requirements of the US Global
Change Research Act of 1990 (PL 101-606). This Presidential
Initiative represents a substantial contribution to the internation-
al activities in this area, represented by the rapidly emerging
Framework Convention on Climate Change and the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process,
both of which will form the basis for international policy making
related to the global environment through the programs to be
discussed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development (UNCED).
The US/Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is com-
prised of a coordinated interagency research effort and a sub-
stantial portion of a significantly increased budget in the context
of the cooperative international effort. The research program
was developed under the auspices of the Office of Science and
Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget
through the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engi-
neering, and Technology (FCCSET).
STATE OF THE SCIENCE
An international team of scientists concluded in their IPCC-spon-
sored report released in 1990, that there is a natural greenhouse
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GLOBAL CHANGE
effect which keeps the Earth warmer, by about 33 degrees centi-
grade, than it otherwise would be. Furthermore, it is also known
that emissions resulting from human activities are increasing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide. For
example, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide have gone up
about 25 percent since pre-industrial times due to human com-
bustion of fossil fuels and other organic matter; levels of other
principal greenhouse gases, methane and industrial chemicals,
To create pru-
especially chlorofluorocarbons, have gone up even faster. The
dent environ-
geological record contains clear evidence of natural variations
mental policies
of climate, over the past 160,000 years, indicating that changes in
will require a
Earth's surface temperature have been closely correlated with
much improved
changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
scientific
such as carbon dioxide and methane.
understanding of
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also
the Earth sys-
concluded that the global mean surface temperature has
tem.
increased by 0.3 degrees to 0.6 degrees Centigrade during the
past 100 years. This warming is broadly consistent with climate
model projections based on increased greenhouse effects of 0.6
degrees Centigrade over the past 100 years. The models predict
a global mean surface temperature increase of between 1.5
degrees and 4.5 degrees Centigrade due to a doubling of atmos-
pheric carbon dioxide or its equivalent in other greenhouse
gases. However, these predictions must be regarded as uncer-
tain, according to the IPCC, particularly with regard to the timing,
magnitude, and regional patterns of climate change because of
inadequate representation in climate models of the various
Earth system processes that are at present not well understood
or quantifiable. Regional patterns are especially important,
since it is the rainfall, soil moisture, and temperature in a partic-
ular region that are critical to those who live in any given area.
A recent study suggests that only minimum temperatures
have changed over the past four decades. This further com-
pounds the uncertainty surrounding this issue since it is unclear
if the models are wrong or human generated greenhouse gases
are having less of an impact on warming.
The risks associated with global change and the scientific
uncertainties surrounding it are both substantial. So, too, are the
economic costs associated with addressing global change. Only
a better understanding of the many components of the Earth sys-
tem and their interactions can lead to an improved ability to pre-
dict global change. Research to reduce scientific and economic
uncertainties of global changes thus provides the best means of
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
assessing the societal impacts and provides a firmer basis for
national and international policy actions.
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
The central goal of the US/GCRP is to establish the scientific basis
for national and international policy making relating to natural
and human-induced changes in the global Earth system. To
meet this goal, the following objectives for the US/GCRP have
been established:
To achieve an integrated, comprehensive, long-term program
of documenting the Earth system on a global scale;
To conduct a program of focused studies to enhance our
understanding of key physical, geological, chemical, biological,
and socio-economic processes and their impacts on regional
and global scales; and
To develop integrated conceptual and predictive Earth system
models to predict regional and global change.
While the US/GCRP is thus designed to be comprehensive in
scope, overall constraints on Federal funding have led the U.S.
to pursue a program more focused on the near-term, highest pri-
ority scientific, economics research and policy issues identified
by the IPCC and at the 1990 White House Conference on Science
and Economics Research Related to Global Change. In particu-
lar, the highest priority scientific and policy-related issue for the
US/GCRP in the current decade is the ways in which human activ-
ities are changing or will change the global climate system.
Using the information needs identified by the IPCC as a guide,
the GCRP has adopted four integrating research themes to help
focus the collective efforts of government, academic, and indus-
try scientists involved in global change, as follows:
1. Climate Modeling and Prediction: research to develop an
improved predictive capability of the Earth's many coupled sys-
tems with enhanced regional resolution.
2. Global Water and Energy Cycles: research to improve the
understanding of water related phenomena (precipitation, evap-
oration, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, ice quantity, type and
movement) and energy cycles (warming/cooling, radiative bal-
ance, solar variability, latent heat) including the roles of clouds,
of the oceans, of terrestrial ecosystems, and changes in sea levels.
3. Global Carbon Cycle: research to improve the understanding
of the carbon cycle by quantifying the natural and anthro-
pogenic terrestrial and oceanic sources and sinks of key carbon
compounds including their chemical reactions in the atmos-
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GLOBAL CHANGE
phere and ocean; the chemical, biological and physical process-
es that control their fluxes; how these fluxes may be influenced
by changes in climate; and how changes in greenhouse gas
concentrations may affect all these processes.
4. Ecological Systems and Population Dynamics: research to
improve the capacity to assess the effects of global change at
regional scales. Specifically, to improve the understanding of
the responses of intensively managed and natural oceanic and
terrestrial ecosystems to global change by focusing scientific
research on species composition of ecosystems, distribution and
extent of ecosystems, and the productivity of ecosystems.
In these four areas, the GCRP will support and expand research to
reduce uncertainties identified by the IPCC, by investigations into:
the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, which affect pre-
dictions of future concentration;
clouds and radiative balance, which strongly influence the
magnitude of climate change at global and regional scales;
oceans, which influence the timing and patterns of climate
change;
land-surface hydrology, which affects regional climate
change and water availability;
polar ice sheets, which affect predictions of global sea level
changes;
ecological dynamics, which are impacted by and respond to
climate change; and special attention will also be directed
toward research on socio-economic issues associated with glob-
al change, especially impacts on and adaptation of economic
systems to potential changes.
In all of these investigations, special attention will be directed
to the data collection, storage, and analysis systems required to
adequately support the research efforts and carefully document
the new knowledge about the Earth and its many complex and
closely interrelated systems.
CLIMATE MODELING AND PREDICTION AND ASSESSMENT
Understanding and predicting changes in the Earth system
require that many distinct components be successfully linked.
Currently global models, such as those used in the first IPCC
assessment, consist of coupled atmosphere-ocean models which
contain rather crude representations of oceanic circulation and
relatively poor representations of terrestrial ecological process-
es. One reason for the relative crude representations is that the
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
processes that govern the interaction of the Earth system's com-
ponents are insufficiently understood. Improving the knowledge
base and integrating the predictions from these various models
is thus a central goal of research. A second reason is that the
capacity and speed of computers required to simulate the cou-
pled ocean/atmosphere/land Earth system are presently inade-
quate (Chapter 4).
Given the complexity of the Earth system and its many feed-
backs, prediction of climate and environmental changes is not
straightforward. For example, the human-generated increases
in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are a major factor
potentially causing climate change. However, because carbon
dioxide is the primary raw material for photosynthesis,
increased carbon dioxide concentrations are also likely to stimu-
late plant growth and thus change the extent and distribution of
the Earth's vegetative cover. This, in turn, affects the water cycle
of the Earth and the degree to which the surface reflects or
absorbs sunlight-and thus could affect climate. Such complex
Earth system processes and interactive feedbacks can only be
understood through model simulations.
Today's global models can simulate some of the important
processes of global change, including the direct response of the
climate system to increased atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases, the warming of the troposphere, and the
cooling of the stratosphere. Many important processes, however,
are treated only in a rudimentary fashion by the models. These
include the interaction between clouds and radiation, the circu-
lation of the oceans, changes in the distribution and abundance
of living things, the role of plants and other organisms in recy-
cling carbon, and exchanges of heat, water, carbon dioxide and
other gases between the oceans, the land, and the atmosphere.
Today, scientists model individual components or limited sub-
systems of climate, such as the atmosphere; the atmosphere and
ocean; or the atmosphere, ocean and prescribed land-surface,
rather than the entire coupled system. More reliable climate
change predictions, especially at the regional scale, will require
modeling the integrated behavior of the entire system.
The primary climate models, called general circulation mod-
els, predict a variety of climatic variables, such as temperature,
precipitation, winds, snow accumulation, and soil moisture.
Integrating these largely atmospheric models with those for the
ocean, the land surface, and the biotic changes in those regimes
will be necessary for improved prediction.
Observations of a wide variety of past and present physical,
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GLOBAL CHANGE
geological, chemical, and biological parameters associated with
the atmosphere, land, and ocean will be required to improve sci-
entific understanding of how the Earth functions as a single cou-
pled system. Good data and information management are
essential to accomplish this. Data sets must be organized and
assimilated SO the model simulations of present and past envi-
ronments can be compared to nature as a test of model accuracy.
Model development requires greater understanding of
processes within each component of the Earth system, such as
Given the com-
cloud-radiation interactions, and of processes that involve inter-
plexity of the
actions between two or more of the components, such the role of
Earth system
the oceans and terrestrial vegetation as sinks for atmospheric
and its many
carbon dioxide, together with the changes that may occur in
feedbacks, pre-
these processes under different climatic regimes.
diction of cli-
mate and envi-
Global Water and Energy Cycles-Water plays a central role in
ronmental
the Earth system, and not only because of its essential role for all
changes is not
forms of life. Water's physical properties give it a role as a cli-
straightforward.
matic thermostat and as a carrier of heat. The global hydrologic
cycle plays a pivotal role in the Earth's radiation and heat bud-
gets. The distribution of clouds and water vapor, for example,
are a major factor in controlling the amount of solar energy
absorbed by the Earth system as well as the infrared radiation
emitted to space, and they strongly influence the redistribution of
heat throughout the Earth system.
The research projects accorded a high priority by the USGCRP
include the study of atmospheric water vapor (the most impor-
tant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere), clouds and their role in
climate system feedbacks, precipitation and its distribution over
land and sea, changes in sea ice extent and amount, the role of
the oceanic circulation in absorbing greenhouse gases and
redistributing heat, and the interaction of land-based biota with
the atmosphere.
The flow of energy in the atmosphere is strongly influenced
by the presence of all three phases of water (as water vapor, as
condensed water in clouds, and as ice or snow). Clouds play a
major role in the exchange of energy and moisture, yet are not
well understood. For example, small changes in the distribution
of relative humidity can alter the characteristics of clouds and
hence alter the amount of solar heat retained by the atmos-
phere. Scientific understanding of these processes is currently
limited by inadequate understanding of how water in the atmos-
phere condenses to form clouds of varying type and spatial dis-
tribution.
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
The oceans are by far the dominant reservoir on the planet for
both water and heat. Evaporation and precipitation over the
ocean result in the exchange of heat, as well as water, with the
atmosphere. In turn, precipitation and evaporation exert a
strong control on the salinity and the deep circulation of the
ocean. A prominent example of the interaction between the
ocean and the atmosphere is provided by the phenomenon
known as El Nino/Southern Oscillation, in which major shifts in
upper ocean and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific
result in changes in the distribution of rainfall over an area
stretching from India and Australia to North and South America.
Changes in the deep circulation of the ocean can also cause
global changes in the distribution of rainfall on time scales of
decades to centuries, according to evidence from studies of past
climates and experiments with coupled ocean-atmosphere models.
Recent research has shown the importance of land surface
processes in regulating the supply of heat and moisture avail-
able in air masses as they move across continents. Although the
basic processes that govern the movement of water are reason-
ably well understood over small areas, they are poorly under-
stood over larger regions and continental-sized areas. It is well
known that soil moisture provides a source of atmospheric water
vapor that can then produce precipitation. Thus a large area of
wet soils can enhance precipitation, while a drought (and the
associated dry soils) can become self sustaining. However,
researchers need better understanding of the role of vegetation,
because plants also regulate the rate at which the land surface
returns water vapor to the atmosphere. Better understanding is
also needed regarding the growth or shrinkage of glaciers, of
changes in the permafrost found in polar regions, and the effects
of human activities such as deforestation, irrigation, urbaniza-
tion, and the construction of dams.
During the past century, scientists estimate that the sea level
has risen about 10-20 centimeters due to the observed world-
wide retreat and melting of temperate glaciers, especially those
in southeastern Alaska, and from thermal expansion of the
oceans. Sea level would be expected to rise further in response
to potential global warming, but there are enormous uncertain-
ties in both measurement and in the understanding of the under-
lying science. For example, the relationship between atmos-
pheric levels of carbon dioxide, temperature, and global ice vol-
ume remains uncertain.
Characterization and representation of the hydrologic cycle is
one of the major acknowledged weaknesses in general circula-
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GLOBAL CHANGE
tion models of climate. Quantitative understanding of the global
water and energy cycles would significantly enhance the devel-
opment of an advanced climate modelling capability.
Global Carbon Cycle-Carbon plays the central role in the
chemistry of life. As fossil fuels, carbon compounds continue to
provide the primary source of energy for industry, as they have
throughout this century. Carbon compounds are also central to
the operation of the greenhouse mechanism that has main-
tained the Earth system at a habitable temperature.
Human activities are altering the global carbon cycle, increas-
ing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon-based gases such
as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons that
absorb infrared radiation and thus increase the radiative heat-
ing of the atmosphere. The concentrations of other trace gases,
such as carbon monoxide and the oxides of nitrogen, are also
increasing, with subsequent effects on the formation or lifetimes
of greenhouse gases.
Many of the key processes in the carbon cycle that control the
sources and sinks of these gases are still poorly understood. Of
the carbon dioxide emitted from the burning of fossil fuels, for
example, only about half reaches the upper atmosphere: about
half of the rest is apparently absorbed by the oceans, and the
remainder-fully a quarter of the anthropogenetically produced
carbon dioxide-vanishes into a still unknown sink.
The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is now
about 350 parts per million (ppm), and is increasing about 1.8
ppm per year. About 6-8 billion metric tons of carbon is released
to the atmosphere annually as carbon dioxide from human
activities. This amount is less than one twentieth the amount
from natural sources, but it has been large enough to increase
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by 25 percent since
pre-industrial times.
The research challenge is to understand the fate of the carbon
released from human activities-to determine the sinks that
remove carbon from the atmosphere. The rate at which carbon
dioxide is removed by the oceans depends both on the immedi-
ate exchange between air and sea and the subsequent transfer
of carbon to the deep ocean and to seafloor sediments. The
chemical, biological, and physical processes that control carbon
transfer need to be better understood and the movement of car-
bon dioxide into and within the oceans more accurately mea-
sured. The challenge is also to understand the amount of car-
bon stored in difference terrestrial ecosystems and their compo-
126
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
nents-including living biomass, detritus, soil, permafrost, and
sediments-and the cycling and transformation of carbon within
these ecosystems.
The atmospheric concentration of methane is 1.72 ppm, now
more than double the pre-industrial value, is increasing at a rate
of 0.9 percent per year. Methane is produced by a wide variety
of human activities and natural sources, including natural wet-
lands, rice cultivation, domestic animals, burning of biomass,
and venting or leaks of natural gas from wells and pipelines.
The research challenge is to improve the quantitative knowl-
edge of these sources of methane and the process that control its
release. Investigating the processes that affect the atmospheric
retention of methane is an important research need.
Ecological Systems and Population Dynamics-The living
organisms of the Earth both play a part in and are affected by
climate change. Plants are a major reservoir of carbon dioxide.
Microbial activity is a major source of methane. Human activities
such as the burning of fossil fuel, deforestation, and agriculture
are increasing the levels of greenhouse gases. It is of great
importance to understand these roles and the consequences of
changes in climate on living organisms and their ecosystems.
The growth of human populations, in particular, plays an
increasingly critical role in global ecological problems. What is
at stake is both the carrying capacity of the planet and the
wealth and diversity of Earth's biological resources.
At present, the net effects of warming on biological processes
cannot be reliably predicted. Higher temperatures, for example,
tend to increase both photosynthesis-which removes carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere-and respiration in plants and
microbial decomposition of biomass-which release carbon
dioxide. Increased soil moisture, on the other hand, could in-
crease plant growth and carbon storage. Higher levels of car-
bon dioxide also may increase plant growth in a number of
ways, from stimulating photosynthesis to improving plant's resis-
tance to water and nutrient stress to prolonging the growing sea-
son. There is considerable uncertainty about the operation and
interrelation of such processes in natural ecosystems.
Because species respond differently to climatic change, eco-
systems are likely to change in structure and composition under
conditions of global warming. Temperature changes compara-
ble in magnitude to those predicted by today's climate models
have in the past been associated with significant shifts in the
geographical distribution of terrestrial plants and animals.
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GLOBAL CHANGE
During the Medieval Warm Epoch from 800 to 1200 AD, the bore-
al forests of Canada extended well north of their present bound-
aries and Scandinavian farmers grew grain as far north as 65°
latitude.
Deforestation in tropical regions and forest harvesting and
regrowth in temperate zones alter the flux of carbon dioxide
between the land and the atmosphere. The net effect of these
human activities are quite uncertain, however. The issue is fur-
ther complicated by the over-fertilization of surface waters in the
What is at stake
Northern Hemisphere attributable to runoff of nitrogen fertilizers,
is both the carry-
which may be promoting carbon storage in biomass. Proposed
ing capacity of
reforestation efforts will also increase carbon storage.
the planet and
The research need is to quantify both the effects of global
the wealth and
change on biological systems and their contributions to such
diversity of
change. The study of population dynamics provides links among
Earth's biologi-
these interacting social, economic, biological and ecological
cal resources.
variables, from small-scale experiments on how competing
plants may grow in high carbon dioxide atmospheres to larger-
scale considerations of how global food availability may be
affected under global change.
Sampling biological populations and building ecological
databases is one important research focus. Crop yields, fishery
and forestry resources, and the abundances of game and some
non-game species are measured directly in many nations.
Remote sensing from satellites can indicate the distribution of
major plant life-forms. The application of sampling and monitor-
ing methods needs to be extended over longer periods of time, in
order to detect projected changes due to global change over a
naturally variable background. The empirical climate records
have made obvious the lack of detailed ecological databases
with comparable data.
A second research focus is the exploration of factors that gov-
ern the response of populations to global change. Key unknowns
include the extent to which climate and carbon dioxide levels
control species composition and abundances, the importance of
interactions in determining the composition of an ecological
community, and how species interactions are likely to be altered
under global change. In environments, which have been affect-
ed by human activity, more understanding is needed of the con-
sequences that global change will have on human health and
on the vulnerabilities of economic institutions nationally, region-
ally, and worldwide. The consequences of global change for
geographic distributions, dispersal and migration of popula-
tions, both human and otherwise, are poorly understood.
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
A more realistic accounting of the true environmental and
economic costs of resource exploitation and management is nec-
essary for wise stewardship of resources now and in the future.
Better descriptions and models of the links between energy use,
agricultural and forest management practices, land-use, human
migration and gas emissions will be especially important for
predicting both direct and indirect human contributions to glob-
al change.
The scientific community has many well-developed tools for
simulating the dynamics of single and, in some cases two or
more, interacting populations of plants and animals. Models of
larger numbers of interacting populations must be improved,
coupled to the physical environment, and scaled up to larger
geographic regions. Human population and economic models
should be integrated with resource and biological models, in
order to provide a more complete description of the interaction of
resource management and the distribution and abundance of
species.
Economics Research-Economic activities play a central role in
determining the level of energy, land use, and industrial activity
that contribute to global change. Thus economic research and
methods provide an important tool for evaluating the interac-
tions between society and global changes. Economic considera-
tions are also important in evaluating the costs and human con-
sequences of actions that might possibly be taken to alter the
timing or magnitude of global change, and thus are essential to
the choice of policy response options. Many of these issues were
identified at the 1990 White House Conference on Science and
Economics Research Related to Global Change.
The key needs for research are to document economic trends
that determine human inputs to global change throughout the
world, to study the economic consequences of responses to glob-
al change, and to develop means of assessing issues that cross-
cut the physical, biological, and economic sciences. This
includes, for example, a better understanding of the economic
forces driving technological change and productivity growth; of
the underlying adaptive capability of economic sectors faced
with climate changes; and of the nature of economic growth,
especially in developing countries. An ability to represent this
improved understanding in economic models is also needed in
order to evaluate international market and trade effects and to
develop consistent scenarios and predictions of trace gas emis-
sions and global change effects.
129
GLOBAL CHANGE
Global environmental changes could have profound impacts
on the resources and systems which determine the health, abun-
dance, distribution, and well-being of human beings and other
species. Irreversibility of species loss and other potential conse-
quences of global change and the need to consider a time frame
of 50 to 100 years or more pose special problems for economics
and decision science research. Researchers must re-examine
research and decision making under uncertainty and the gener-
al topic of valuing future outcomes and costs, drawing on
approaches from both the social and physical sciences.
Economics research can make several important contributions
to establishing a foundation for policy analysis. First, economics
research can address issues in strategy, negotiation, compliance
and enforcement that are relevant to the global change policy
process. Second, research can examine the strengths and weak-
nesses of the types of generic policy instruments that are poten-
tially applicable in the global change context. Finally, research
can contribute to the development and refinement of tools, such
as internationally linked macroeconomic models, that will play
an important role in policy analysis.
CONCLUSION
For the first time in history, the human species has the capability
of changing the global environment. Already, human activities
have led to a partial degradation of the atmosphere's protective
ozone shield and have raised the possibility of intensifying the
greenhouse effect and SO changing Earth's climate. The great
challenge is to anticipate future global change and to develop a
rational program for protecting the environment. That will
require a far better understanding of the many components of
the Earth system- air, water, land, and living organisms-and
their interactions.
The Bush Administration is giving priority attention to re-
search on global change through the US/GCRP, which is designed
to increase the knowledge base concerning the entire Earth sys-
tem and to improve the ability to model and predict global
change, both natural and that caused by human activities.
131
ADDITIONAL READING
Chapter 1: Building on Science and Technology
Mansfield, E., Technology Transfer, Productivity and Economic Policy, Norton,
New York, 1982.
Office of Science and Technology Policy, "U.S. Technology Policy", September
1990.
National Science Board, "Science and Engineering Indicators, 10th ed., 1991,
NSB-91-1.
Science Watch, No. 1, pp. 1-2, & Volume 2, No. 4, p. 8, 1991.
Council of Economic Advisors, "Economic Report of the President", February
1990.
Council of Economic Advisors, "Economic Report of the President", February
1991.
Chapter 2: Basic Research Foundation
Mansfield, E., "The Social Rate of Return for Academic Research", Research
Policy, Volume 20, pp. 1-12, February 1991.
Mansfield, E., "Social Returns from R & D: Findings, Methods and Limitations",
Research "Technology
Management, Volume 34, No. 6, pp. 24-27, Nov./Dec. 1991.
Office of Technology Asssessment, "Federally Funded Research: Decisions for a
Decade", OTA-SET-490, May 1991.
Chapter 3: Science, Mathematics and Technology Education
FCCSET Committee on Education and Human Resources, "By the Year 2000: First
in the World", FY 1992 Budget Summary, Office of Science and Technology
Policy February, 1991.
Office of Technology Assessment, "Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade
School to Grad School", OTA-SET-377, June, 1988.
Department of Education, "Education Policy and Telecommunications
Technologies". OERI/IS 91-189, May 1991.
National Telecommunications and Information Administration
(NTIA), "Telecommunications in the Age of Information", Department of
Commerce, 91-26, October, 1991.
Office of Technology Assessment, "Power On!: New Tools for Teaching and
Learning", OTA-SET-379, September, 1988.
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), "Trends in Academic Progress,
National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)", 2SBN 0-88685-118-1,
September, 1991.
Department of Education, "AMERICA 2000: An Education Strategy", ED -0591-13,
April, 1991.
Office of Technology Assessment, "Worker Training: Competing in the New
International Economy", OTA-ITE-457, September, 1990.
Weiss, I.R., et al, "Science and Mathematics Education Briefing Book", Volume II,
1990, Horizons
Research, Inc., Chapel Hill, NC.
Chapter 4: High Performance Computing and Communiations
Office of Science and Technology Policy, "Grand Challenges: High Performance
Computing and Communications", January, 1991.
Office of Science and Technology Policy, "The Federal High Performance
Computing Program", September 8, 1989.
132
ADDITIONAL READING
Piel, J., "Communications, Computers and Networks", Special Issue, Scientific
American, Volume 265, September 1991.
Chapter 5: Life Sciences and Biotechnology
The President's Council on Competitiveness, "Report on National Biotechnology
Policy, February, 1991.
National Research Council, "Field Testing Genetically Modified Organisms:
Framework for Decisions", National Academy Press, 1989.
National Academy of Sciences, "Introduction of Recombinant DNA-Engineered
Organisms into the Environment: Key Issues", National Academy Press, 1987.
David, B. D., "The Genetic Revolution", John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore,
MD, 1991.
FCCSET Committee on Life Sciences and Health, "Biotechnology for the 21st
Century: The FY 1993 Biotechnology Research Initiative", February, 1992.
Chapter 6: Science and Technology and National Security
The White House, "National Security Strategy of the United States", ISBN 0-16-
035806-X, August, 1990.
Secretary of Defense, "Annual Report to the President and the Congress",
January, 1991.
Strategic Defense Initiative Organization, "1991 Report to the Congress on the
SDI", ADA 237658 May, 1991.
100th Congress, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, "U.S.
Counterintelligence and Security Concerns: A Status Report - Personnel and
Information Security", Report 100-1094, October 19, 1988.
National Research Council, "Growing Vulnerability of the Public Switched
Networks: Implications for National Security Emergency Preparedness",
National Academy Press, 1989.
Stoll, C., "The Cuckoo's Egg: Tracing a Spy Through the Maze of Computer
Espionage", Doubleday, 1989.
Chapter 7: Science, Technology and Foreign Policy
Department of State, "Science, Technology and American Diplomacy, 1991",
Twelfth Annual Report to the Congress by the President, June 1991.
National Science Board, "The Global Markets for U.S. Technology", Chapter 7,
Science and Engineering Indicators, 8th Edition, 1989, NSB 89-1.
National Science Foundation, "International Science and Technology Update,
1991" NSF 91-309.
National Science Foundation, "National Patterns of R & D Resources, 1990", NSF
90-316.
National Science Board, "Report of the NSB Committee on Foreign Involvement
in U.S. Universities", NSB 89-80.
National Science Board, "Science and Technology Integration in Europe and
Influences on U.S. - European Cooperation", NSB 90-172.
National Science Foundation, "Survey of Direct U.S. Private Capital Investment
in Research and Development Facilities in Japan", NSF 91-312.
Chapter 8: Science, Technology and Competitiveness
Office of Science and Technology Policy, "U.S. Technology Policy", September
1990. Council of Economic Advisors, "Economic Report of the President",
February 1990.
133
ADDITIONAL READING
Council of Economic Advisors, "Economic Report of the President", February
1991.
Womack, J. B., et al, "The Machine That Changed The World", Macmillan New
York, 1990.
Chapter 9: Global Change
FCCSET Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, "Our Changing Planet:
The FY 1992 U.S. Global Change Research Program", Office of Science and
Technology Policy, January 1991.
FCCSET Committee on Earth Sciences, Our Changing Planet: The FY 1991
Research Plan. The U.S. Global Change Research Program", Office of
Science and Technology Policy, October 1990.
FCCSET Committee on Earth Sciences, "Our Changing Planet: The FY 1991 U.S.
Global Change Research Program", Office of Science and Technology Policy,
January 1990.
FCCSET Committee on Earth Sciences, "Our Changing Planet: The FY 1990
Research Plan", Office of Science and Technology Policy, July 1989.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Climate Change: The IPCC
Scientific Assessment", World Meteorological Organization/United Nations
Environment Program, Island Press, 1990.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Climate Change: The IPCC
Response Strategies", World Meteorological Organization/United Nations
Environment Program, Island Press, 1990.