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This file contains material relating to Ronald Reagan, National Republican Congressional Committee.

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324358994
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1984 - U.S. National Post-Election Study - Summary Tables (prepared for National Republican Congressional Committee) (2)
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324358994
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1984 - U.S. National Post-Election Study - Summary Tables (prepared for National Republican Congressional Committee) (2)
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This file contains material relating to Ronald Reagan, National Republican Congressional Committee.
collections
Robert M. Teeter Papers
Election Results and Analysis
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Democratic National Committee (U.S.)
Republican National Committee (U.S.)
Congressional elections
Public opinion polls
Presidential campaign, 1984
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324358994
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1984-11-30
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11
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1984
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1984-11-01
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11
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1984
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The original documents are located in Box 72, folder "1984 - U.S. National Post-Election Study - Summary Tables (prepared for National Republican Congressional Committee) (2)" of the Robert M. Teeter Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Robert and Elizabeth Teeter donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direc- tion or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? (cont'd.) Responses Don't Right Wrong know/ (a) Number Total Direction Track Refused PDI of Cases Region (cont'd.) Mountain November 1984 100% 66% 26% 8% +40 ( 151) Oct. 12-20, 1984 100% 66 23 11 +43 ( 61) September 1984 100% 51 41 8 +10 ( 61) July/Aug. 1984 100% 61 29 10 +32 ( 77) June 1984 100% 53 39 9 +14 ( 76) March 1984 100% 60 32 6 +28 ( 77) November 1983 100% 42 54 4 -12 ( 71) June 1983 100% 55 37 8 +18 ( 75) Feb./March 1983 100% 40 49 10 - 9 ( 77) Average 1982 100% 38 52 10 -14 Average 1981 100% 46 41 12 + 5 Pacific November 1984 100% 60 33 6 +27 ( 410) Oct. 12-20, 1984 100% 53 34 13 +19 ( 162) September 1984 100% 54 33 14 +21 ( 162) July/Aug. 1984 100% 54 39 7 +15 ( 203) June 1984 100% 51 38 10 +13 ( 204) March 1984 100% 44 42 14 + 2 ( 204) November 1983 100% 40 51 8 -11 ( 212) June 1983 100% 53 40 8 +13 ( 205) Feb./March 1983 100% 42 50 8 - 8 ( 206) Average 1982 100% 34 56 10 -22 Average 1981 100% 37 52 11 -15 (continued on next page) GERALD R. FORD LIBRABA - 95 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direc- tion or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? (cont'd.) Responses Don't Right Wrong know/ (a) Number Total Direction Track Refused PDI of Cases Sex Male November 1984 100% 66% 25% 9% +41 ( 1437) October 12-20, 1984 100% 64 28 9 +36 ( 574) September 1984 100% 62 29 8 +33 ( 580) July/Aug. 1984 100% 63 29 8 +34 ( 731) June 1984 100% 55 36 9 +19 ( 720) March 1984 100% 52 38 11 +14 ( 720) November 1983 100% 49 42 9 + 7 ( 728) June 1983 100% 55 36 9 +19 ( 728) Feb./March 1983 100% 46 47 7 - 1 ( 719) Average 1982 100% 38 53 10 -15 Average 1981 100% 45 45 10 0 Female November 1984 100% 57 22 11 +25 (1565) October 12-20, 1984 100% 51 37 12 +14 ( 624) September 1984 100% 50 42 9 + 8 ( 620) July/Aug. 1984 100% 48 42 10 + 6 ( 772) June 1984 100% 46 43 11 + 3 ( 780) March 1984 100% 42 47 11 - 5 ( 780) November 1983 100% 38 53 10 -15 ( 790) June 1983 100% 39 51 10 -12 ( 773) Feb./March 1983 100% 34 57 9 -23 ( 782) Average 1982 100% 28 62 11 -34 Average 1981 100% 34 52 15 -18 (continued on next page) - 96 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direc- tion or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? (cont'd.) Responses Don't Right Wrong know/ (a) Number Total Direction Track Refused PDI of Cases Status Groups High Income November 1984 100% 75% 17% 8% +58 ( 682) October 12-20, 1984 100% 68 24 8 +44 ( 287) September 1984 100% 71 21 8 +50 ( 263) July/Aug. 1984 100% 68 25 7 +43 ( 369) June 1984 100% 64 28 8 +36 ( 373) March 1984 100% 59 32 9 +27 ( 350) November 1983 100% 57 36 8 +21 ( 240) June 1983 100% 60 32 9 +28 ( 353) Feb./March 1983 100% 58 36 5 +22 ( 339) Intelligentisa November 1984 100% 65 31 4 +34 ( 256) October 12-20, 1984 100% 59 35 6 +24 ( 108) September 1984 100% 59 34 8 +25 ( 110) July/Aug. 1984 100% 62 33 4 +29 ( 147) June 1984 100% 54 36 10 +18 ( 137) March 1984 100% 53 37 10 +16 ( 123) November 1983 100% 42 53 5 -11 ( 132) June 1983 100% 55 36 10 +19 ( 154 ) Feb./March 1983 100% 48 44 8 + 4 ( 149) Middle Class November 1984 100% 68 23 9 +45 ( 688) October 12-20, 1984 100% 65 26 8 +39 ( 267) September 1984 100% 63 29 9 +34 ( 322) July/Aug. 1984 100% 60 31 10 +39 ( 386) June 1984 100% 52 38 10 +14 ( 384) March 1984 100% 53 37 9 +16 ( 402) November 1983 100% 53 38 8 +15 ( 327 ) June 1983 100% 54 38 8 +16 ( 389) Feb./March 1983 100% 40 52 8 -12 ( 423) (continued on next page) R. FORD GERALD LIBRARY - 97 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direc- tion or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? (cont Responses Don't Right Wrong know/ (a) Number Lower End Total Direction Track Refused PDI of Cases November 1984 100% 55% 33% 12% +22 ( 542) October 12-20, 1984 100% 45 42 13 + 3 ( 223) September 1984 100% 48 46 7 + 2 ( 206) July/Aug. 1984 100% .47 42 11 + 5 ( 243) June 1984 100% 41 47 12 - 6 ( 229) March 1984 100% 35 51 15 -16 ( 285) November 1983 100% 36 54 10 -18 ( 369) June 1983 100% 35 56 9 -21 ( 268) Feb./March 1983 100% 28 62 10 -34 ( 267) Jews November 1984 100% 49 41 11 + 8 ( 86) October 12-20, 1984 100% 49 40 9 + 9 ( 43) September 1984 100% 42 47 11 - 5 ( 38) July/Aug. 1984 100% 51 49 2 + 2 ( 41) June 1984 100% 50 34 16 +16 ( 44) March 1984 100% 38 52 10 -14 ( 48) November 1983 100% 45 43 12 + 2 ( 42) June 1983 100% 41 51 8 -10 ( 51) Feb./March 1983 100% 30 59 8 -29 ( 37) Hispanics November 1984 100% 55 30 14 +25 ( 113) October 12-20, 1984 100% 62 29 12 +33 ( 42) September 1984 100% 48 45 8 + 3 ( 40) July/Aug. 1984 100% 47 45 8 + 2 ( 47) June 1984 100% 43 47 10 - 4 ( 58) March 1984 100% 43 48 9 - 5 ( 56) November 1983 100% 29 58 14 -29 ( 65) June 1983 100% 50 35 15 +15 ( 48) Feb./March 1983 100% 45 52 2 - 7 ( 44) Black November 1984 100% 31 56 13 -25 October 12-20, 1984 100% 32 58 9 -26 { ( 329) ( 124) September 1984 100% 24 67 9 -43 ( 129) July/Aug. 1984 100% 32 56 11 -24 ( 170) June 1984 100% 27 62 11 -35 ( 162) March 1984 100% 18 69 14 -51 ( 156) November 1983 100% 22 72 6 -50 ( 159) June 1983 100% 16 75 10 -59 ( 150) Feb./March 1983 100% 11 85 5 -74 ( 155) (continued on next page) - 98 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH NATIONAL ECONOMY COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO 100 90 BETTER WORSE 80 70 65 60 63 66 55 54 PERCENT 52 50 54 55 49 50 49 49 48 48 40 45 36 30 BE MOBSE 33 25 BE BELLEK 22 20 19 19 19 18 16 20 19 12 12 17 18 10 иоп 9 0 NOV FEB MAY JULY SEPT OCT NOV F/M JUNE NOV MAR JT/A SEPT OCT NOV GERALD 1981 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 R. LIBRARY FORD MARKET OPINION RESEARCH NATIONAL ECONOMY A YEAR FROM NOW 100 90 WILL BE BETTER WILL BE WORSE 80 70 60 60 100 I 53 59 PERCENT 52 50 50 47 47 51 42 42 40 39 42 36 37 30 35 27 22 20 23 22 17 16 17 17 19 15 11 10 14 14 14 9 0 NOV F/M MAY JULY SEPT OCT NOV F/M JUNE NOV MAA JT/A SEPT OCT NOV 1981 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Perceptions of Current Economy July/ Feb./ Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. March Nov. June March Nov. Oct. Sept. July May Feb. Nov. 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1983 1983 1983 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1981 Compared to a year ago ... National Economy Better 45% 48% 49% 48% 52% 49% 54% 33% 25% 20% 22% 16% 12% 9% 12% Stayed same 33 31 29 31 30 30 26 29 23 23 27 27 23 24 31 Worse 18 18 19 19 17 19 19 36 49 55 50 55 63 65 54 Don't know/NA 4 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 3 Unemployment Better X X X 52 52 X X 11 5 X 3 5 3 3 4 Stayed same x X X 20 22 X X 20 9 X 11 12 7 13 19 Worse X X X 24 24 X X 68 86 X 84 81 88 82 73 Don't know/NA X X X 4 2 X X 2 1 X 2 1 1 1 4 Inflation Better X X X 40 40 X X 43 40 33 34 27 28 15 13 Stayed same X X X 33 35 X X 28 24 29 26 28 25 23 23 Worse X X X 25 23 X X 27 33 36 39 44 46 60 64 Don't know/NA X X X 2 2 X X 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 Interest Rates Better X X X 23 37 X X 69 64 60 53 X X 11 23 Stayed same X X X 27 30 X X 12 13 14 28 X X 61 57 Worse X X X 42 26 X X 15 19 22 16 X X 24 16 Don't know/NA X X X 7 7 X X 4 4 4 3 X X 4 4 x = Not asked. GERALD R. FORD LIBRARY - 101 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Perceptions of Future Economy (cont'd.) July/ Feb./ Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. March Nov. June March Nov. Oct. Sept. July May Feb. Nov. 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1983 1983 1983 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1981 Thinking about a year from now, do you expect ... National Economy Will be better 42% 39% 35% 37% 42% 42% 59% 60% 53% 51% 52% 50% 47% 36% 47% Will be the same 29 35 33 33 37 36 27 26 24 26 28 26 23 28 24 Will be worse 22 14 17 16 14 16 11 9 17 15 14 19 22 27 23 Don't know/NA 7 13 16 13 7 6 4 5 6 8 6 5 8 9 6 Unemployment Will be better x X X 41 48 X X 60 49 44 44 45 42 32 37 Will be the same X X X 34 33 X X 24 22 26 25 25 22 29 7 Will be worse x X X 16 13 X X 12 23 23 26 27 31 32 31 Don't know/NA X X X 10 5 X X 4 7 7 5 3 5 7 4 Inflation Will be better X X X 24 27 X X 42 45 X 41 39 37 33 41 Will be the same x X X 37 42 X X 39 32 X 33 33 32 31 25 Will be worse x x X 28 27 X X 13 17 X 21 25 26 29 30 Don't know/NA X X X 11 5 X X 9 6 X 5 3 5 7 4 Interest Rates Will be better X X X 26 25 X X 49 50 X 54 X X 34 49 Will be the same X X X 27 34 X X 32 27 X 16 X X 25 20 Will be worse x X X 35 34 X X 12 15 X 24 X X 30 24 Don't know/NA X X X 12 8 X X 7 9 X 5 X X 10 6 X = Not asked - 102 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Would you say that you and your family are better off financially, or worse off, or about the same as you were four years ago? Responses About Better the Worse No Off Same Off Opinion Total 42% 38% 18% 1% Segmentation Groups High income 61 30 7 1 Trend Intelligentsia 44 38 16 3 Middle income 46 37 16 1 Lower end 30 45 24 1 Bet- About No Jews 41 38 15 4 ter the Worse Opi- Hispanics 33 43 21 2 Off Same Off nion Blacks 15 42 42 1 Nov Sex 1984 42% 38% 18% 1% Oct. , Men 48 35 16 1 1984 42 37 19 1 Women 37 41 20 2 Sept., 1984 42 34 22 1 Age July/Aug., 1984 42 36 20 1 18-24 45 37 16 2 March, 25-39 49 31 19 1 1984 39 37 23 1 40-54 44 36 19 2 Nov., 55-64 33 48 17 2 1983 40 37 21 1 65+ 27 52 19 2 Feb./ March, 1983(a) 19% 48% 31% 1% June, 1981 (b) 31 27 40 3 (a)"A year ago" used in question wording. (b) "About the same" coded as volunteered response in *Less than .5% 1981. "A year ago" used in question wording. R. FORD GERALD LISAARY - 103 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH REAGAN JOB PERFORMANCE 100 90 80 70 67 65 65 60 65 60 60 61 104 I I 53 59 PERCENT 51 52 50 8 48 49 47 47 53 47 46 46 41 40 42 41 41 37 39 39 30 35 28 APPROVE 34 34 32 DISAPPROVE 29 20 22 10 0 JUNE NOV F/M MAY JULY SEPT OCT NOV F/M JUNE NOV. MAR JUNE JT/A SEPT OCT NOV GERALD 1981 1981 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 R. FORD LIBRAIA THARBIS 1080 REAGAN'S NOVEMBER 1984 JOB PERFORMANCE TO BY REGION 80 30 70 69% 69% 68% APPROVE 66% 65% 62% 62% 60 DISAPPROVE 59% БЕУСЕИ1 105 1 I 50 PERCENT 40 34% 30 31% 30% 31% 28% 26% 25% 22% 20 T00 10 0 NEW M10 EAST WEST BORDER DEEP MOUN PACIFIC ENGLAND ATLANTIC N.C. N.C. SOUTH SOUTH TAIN MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as President? Would that be strongly approve/disapprove or just somewhat approve/disapprove? Handling Job Somewhat Strongly Don't Number Strongly Somewhat Dis- Dis- Know/ of Total Approve Approve approve approve NA Cases Early in Interview November, 1984 100% 37% 28% 11% 17% 6% (3002) October 12-20, 1984 100% 36 29 11 21 4 (1198) September, 1984 100% 35 26 14 20 5 (1200) July/Aug., 1984 100% 32 27 14 23 4 (1503) June, 1984 100% 29 31 14 20 5 (1500) March, 1984 100% 27 34 15 19 4 (1500) November, 1983 100% 21 33 22 19 6 (1518) June, 1983 100% 23 30 16 23 8 (1500) Feb./March, 1983 100% 19 28 17 29 7 (1501) November, 1982 100% 25 27 15 27 7 ( 800) October, 1982 100% 23 25 18 28 6 (1200) September, 1982 100% 23 29 17 22 9 (1199) July, 1982 100% 20 29 16 25 10 (1501) May, 1982 100% 20 29 17 24 10 (1503) February, 1982 100% 21 27 20 27 5 (1511) Late in Interview February, 1982 100% 21 32 18 25 4 (1511) November, 1981 100% 32 33 12 15 8 (1503) June, 1981 100% 35 32 11 11 12 (1505) FORD is GERALD LIBRARY - 106 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) Collapsed Results (c) Don't (b) Party Total Approve Disapprove know PDI Average Total November 1984 100% 65% 29% 6% +36 4.1 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 65 32 4 +33 3.9 September 1984 100% 61 34 5 +27 4.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 59 37 4 +22 3.8 June 1984 100% 60 34 5 +26 3.9 March 1984 100% 60 35 4 +25 4.0 November 1983 100% 53 41 6 +12 3.8 June 1983 100% 53 39 8 +14 3.6 Feb./March 1983 100% 47 46 7 +1 3.7 Average 1982 100% 49 43 8 + 6 3.7 Party ID Strong Republican November 1984 100% 97 2 1 +95 7.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 96 2 2 +94 7.0 September 1984 100% 94 4 2 +90 7.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 94 4 2 +90 7.0 June 1984 100% 96 3 -- +93 7.0 March 1984 100% 95 4 1 +91 7.0 November 1983 100% 91 10 : +81 7.0 June 1983 100% 93 5 2 +88 7.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 85 10 5 +75 7.0 Average 1982 100% 89 8 3 +81 7.0 Weak Republican November 1984 100% 92 6 2 +86 6.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 93 5 2 +88 6.0 September 1984 100% 86 10 3 +76 6.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 88 10 3 +78 6.0 June 1984 100% 87 10 4 +77 6.0 March 1984 100% 84 13 3 +71 6.0 November 1983 100% 79 17 5 +62 6.0 June 1983 100% 79 13 9 +66 6.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 78 18 4 +60 6.0 Average 1982 100% 74 20 7 +54 6.0 (continued on next page) - 107 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results (c) Don't (b) Party Total Approve Disapprove know PDI Average Independent Republican November 1984 100% 90% 5% 5% +85 5.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 96 2 2 +94 5.0 September 1984 100% 91 8 1 +83 5.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 92 7 1 +85 5.0 June 1984 100% 87 12 2 +75 5.0 March 1984 100% 85 11 4 +74 5.0 November 1983 100% 80 17 4 +63 5.0 June 1983 100% 83 12 5 +71 6.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 78 15 7 +63 5.0 Average 1982 100% 77 15 7 +62 5.0 Independent November 1984 100% 68 21 12 +47 4.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 69 20 11 +49 4.0 September 1984 100% 63 25 12 +38 4.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 61 30 9 +31 4.0 June 1984 100% 61 28 11 +33 4.0 March 1984 100% 59 34 7 +25 4.0 November 1983 100% 52 38 10 +14 4.0 June 1983 100% 44 33 22 +11 4.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 54 37 9 +17 4.0 Average 1982 100% 49 36 14 +13 4.0 Independent Democrat November 1984 100% 35 57 8 -22 3.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 39 55 5 -16 3.0 September 1984 100% 33 62 6 -29 3.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 31 64 5 -33 3.0 June 1984 100% 35 58 8 -23 3.0 March 1984 100% 39 54 7 -15 3.0 November 1983 100% 32 63 5 -31 3.0 June 1983 100% 34 59 7 -25 3.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 21 72 7 -51 3.0 Average 1982 100% 27 65 8 -38 3.0 R. (continued on next page) FORD GERALD LIBRARY - 108 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results (c) Don't (b) Party Total Approve Disapprove know PDI Average Party ID (cont'd.) Weak Democrat November 1984 100% 47% 43% 10% + 4 2.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 50 46 4 + 4 2.0 September 1984 100% 45 47 7 - 2 2.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 45 49 6 - 4 2.0 June 1984 100% 49 45 6 - 4 2.0 March 1984 100% 46 50 4 - 4 2.0 November 1983 100% 42 50 8 - 8 2.0 June 1983 100% 41 51 9 -10 2.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 30 58 12 -28 2.0 Average 1982 100% 41 51 9 -10 2.0 Strong Democrat November 1984 100% 19 73 9 -54 1.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 21 77 2 -56 1.0 September 1984 100% 21 75 4 -54 1.0 July/Aug. 1984 100% 16 80 3 -64 1.0 June 1984 100% 20 75 6 -55 1.0 March 1984 100% 19 75 6 -56 1.0 November 1983 100% 22 71 8 -49 1.0 June 1983 100% 22 71 7 -49 1.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 14 80 6 -66 1.0 Average 1982 100% 16 77 8 -61 1.0 (continued on next page) TRANSIS - 109 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) (cont 'd.) Collapsed Results Don't (b) Party (c) Total Approve Disapprove know PDI Average Region New England November 1984 100% 69% 28% 3% +41 4.1 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 67 32 1 +35 4.2 September 1984 100% 60 37 1 +23 3.7 July/Aug. 1984 100% 52 41 7 +11 3.9 June 1984 100% 62 35 2 +27 3.7 March 1984 100% 65 26 9 +41 3.8 November 1983 100% 55 40 6 +15 3.8 June 1983 100% 57 37 7 +20 3.6 Feb./March 1983 100% 51 42 7 + 9 3.9 Average 1982 100% 50 43 8 + 7 3.6 Mid-Atlantic November 1984 100% 59 34 7 +25 4.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 60 34 7 +26 3.9 September 1984 100% 61 35 5 +26 4.1 July/Aug. 1984 100% 53 44 4 + 9 3.8 June 1984 100% 54 40 6 +14 4.0 March 1984 100% 59 37 4 +22 4.0 November 1983 100% 55 38 8 +17 4.1 June 1983 100% 48 42 11 +6 3.8 Feb./March 1983 100% 47 48 5 - 1 3.8 Average 1982 100% 45 45 10 + 0 3.8 East NC November 1984 100% 65 31 4 +34 4.1 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 64 33 3 +31 3.9 September 1984 100% 59 36 4 +23 4.1 July/Aug. 1984 100% 65 32 4 +33 4.0 June 1984 100% 61 34 5 +27 3.9 March 1984 100% 62 35 3 +27 4.1 November 1983 100% 49 44 6 + 5 3.9 June 1983 100% 48 42 10 +6 4.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 41 51 8 -10 3.6 Average 1982 100% 48 44 8 + 4 3.8 R. FORD (continued on next page) GERALD LIBRARY - 110 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results Don't (b) Party (c) Total Approve Disapprove know PDI Average Region (cont'd.) West NC November 1984 100% 69% 22% 8% +47 4.3 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 65 34 1 +31 3.7 September 1984 100% 70 26 5 +44 4.4 July/Aug. 1984 100% 58 37 5 +21 3.9 June 1984 100% 65 31 5 +34 4.2 March 1984 100% 62 33 4 +29 3.9 November 1983 100% 57 41 2 +16 4.1 June 1983 100% 56 36 8 +20 3.7 Feb./March 1983 100% 54 37 9 +17 3.9 Average 1982 100% 53 40 7 +13 3.7 Border South November 1984 100% 66 25 8 +41 4.1 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 63 36 1 +27 3.7 September 1984 100% 63 26 11 +37 3.6 July/Aug. 1984 100% 54 44 3 +10 3.6 June 1984 100% 57 38 3 +19 3.6 March 1984 100% 58 40 2 +18 3.8 November 1983 100% 53 40 7 +13 3.6 June 1983 100% 58 37 5 +21 3.7 Feb./March 1983 100% 38 56 6 -18 3.4 Average 1982 100% 50 46 5 + 4 3.4 (continued on next page) - 111 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results Don't (b) Party (c) Total Approve Disapprove know PDI Average Region (cont'd.) Deep South November 1984 100% 68% 26% 6% +42 3.9 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 70 25 4 +45 4.1 September 1984 100% 61 34 5 +27 3.8 July/Aug. 1984 100% 63 33 5 +30 3.8 June 1984 100% 64 29 6 +25 3.7 March 1984 100% 60 36 4 +24 3.8 November 1983 100% 57 37 6 +20 3.5 June 1983 100% 53 39 8 +14 3.4 Feb./March 1983 100% 50 43 7 + 7 3.6 Average 1982 100% 52 40 8 + 8 3.5 Mountain November 1984 100% 62 30 7 +32 4.2 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 69 26 5 +43 4.2 September 1984 100% 66 26 9 +40 3.9 July/Aug. 1984 100% 73 27 +46 4.1 June 1984 100% 68 32 1 +38 3.9 March 1984 100% 70 18 12 +52 4.4 November 1983 100% 52 44 4 + 8 4.0 June 1983 100% 65 29 5 +36 4.0 Feb./March 1983 100% 49 39 12 +10 3.9 Average 1982 100% 58 35 8 +23 4.1 (continued on next page) FORD R. GERALD LIBRARY - 112 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results Don't (b) Party(c) Total Approve Disapprove know/NA PDI Average Pacific November 1984 100% 62% 31% 7% +32 4.1 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 60 38 2 +22 3.8 September 1984 100% 57 39 4 +18 3.9 July/Aug. 1984 100% 53 43 4 +10 3.8 June 1984 100% 56 38 6 +18 4.2 March 1984 100% 55 40 4 +15 4.0 November 1983 100% 50 44 6 +6 3.7 June 1983 100% 57 38 6 +19 3.8 Feb./March 1983 100% 46 47 7 1 3.9 Average 1982 100% 47 44 9 + 3 3.8 Sex Male November 1984 100% 69 25 6 +44 4.2 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 67 30 3 +37 4.1 September 1984 100% 67 29 4 +38 4.1 July/Aug. 1984 100% 65 32 4 +33 4.0 June 1984 100% 66 30 4 +36 4.0 March 1984 100% 66 32 2 +34 4.0 November 1983 100% 59 36 5 +23 4.0 June 1983 100% 59 34 7 +25 3.8 Feb./March 1983 100% 51 42 7 + 9 3.8 Average 1982 100% 54 38 7 +16 3.8 Female November 1984 100% 61 32 7 +29 4.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 63 33 4 +30 3.8 September 1984 100% 56 38 6 +18 3.8 July/Aug. 1984 100% 54 42 4 +12 3.7 June 1984 100% 55 38 6 +17 3.7 March 1984 100% 56 37 7 +19 3.9 November 1983 100% 49 45 7 + 4 3.6 June 1983 100% 47 43 9 + 4 3.6 Feb./March 1983 100% 43 49 8 - 6 3.6 Average 1982 100% 45 47 9 - 2 3.6 (continued on next page) - 113 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results Don't (b) Party(c) Total Approve Disapprove know/NA PDI Average Status Groups High Income November 1984 100% 79% 18% 3% +61 4.6 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 73 23 4 +50 4.5 September 1984 100% 73 25 3 +48 4.5 July/Aug. 1984 100% 72 25 4 +47 4.5 June 1984 100% 73 24 2 +49 4.4 March 1984 100% 71 27 2 +44 4.5 November 1983 100% 65 32 4 +33 4.4 June 1983 100% 71 25 5 +46 4.3 Feb./March 1983 100% 61 32 7 +29 4.2 Intelligentsia November 1984 100% 64 31 5 +33 4.3 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 65 33 2 +32 4.2 September 1984 100% 66 34 -- +32 4.2 July/Aug. 1984 100% 61 36 3 +25 4.0 June 1984 100% 69 31 -- +38 4.2 March 1984 100% 56 37 7 +19 4.1 November 1983 100% 50 45 5 + 5 3.9 June 1983 100% 55 40 6 +15 3.8 Feb./March 1983 100% 55 43 2 +12 4.0 Middle Class November 1984 100% 72 23 5 +49 4.3 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 74 24 1 +50 4.4 September 1984 100% 71 25 4 +46 4.3 July/Aug. 1984 100% 68 30 2 +38 4.2 June 1984 100% 66 28 5 +38 4.1 March 1984 100% 70 25 5 +45 4.2 November 1983 100% 67 29 3 +38 4.1 June 1983 100% 60 31 9 +29 3.9 Feb./March 1983 100% 52 43 5 + 9 3.8 R. FORD GERALD (continued on next page) LIBRARY 114 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results Don't (b) Party(c) Total Approve Disapprove know/NA PDI Average Status Groups (cont'd.) Lower End November 1984 100% 63% 29% 8% +34 4.0 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 61 35 3 +26 3.8 September 1984 100% 51 39 9 +12 3.9 July/Aug. 1984 100% 55 40 5 +15 3.7 June 1984 100% 52 42 7 +10 3.8 March 1984 100% 56 38 7 +18 4.0 November 1983 100% 50 42 9 + 8 3.5 June 1983 100% 48 43 9 + 5 3.5 Feb./March 1983 100% 40 50 10 -10 3.5 Jews November 1984 100% 44 51 5 - 7 3.2 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 51 42 7 + 9 3.1 September 1984 100% 34 53 13 -19 3.3 July/Aug. 1984 100% 44 56 -- -12 3.2 June 1984 100% 55 34 11 +21 3.3 March 1984 100% 35 58 4 -23 3.2 November 1983 100% 36 60 4 -24 3.4 June 1983 100% 27 63 10 -36 2.7 Feb./March 1983 100% 27 65 8 -38 2.7 Hispanics November 1984 100% 61 29 10 +32 3.6 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 64 33 2 +31 3.1 September 1984 100% 60 35 3 +25 3.1 July/Aug. 1984 100% 43 49 9 - 6 2.9 June 1984 100% 45 47 9 - 2 3.1 March 1984 100% 57 30 13 +27 3.3 November 1983 100% 42 54 6 -12 3.2 June 1983 100% 52 44 4 + 8 3.1 Feb./March 1983 100% 41 43 16 - 2 3.5 (continued on next page) 115 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to President Reagan's General Job Performance Rating (a) (cont'd.) Collapsed Results Don't (b) Party(c) Total Approve Disapprove know/NA PDI Average Status Groups (cont'd.) Non-Black (total) November 1984 100% 69% 25% 6% +44 4.1 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 69 27 4 +42 4.1 September 1984 100% 66 29 5 +37 4.1 July/Aug. 1929 100% 64 33 4 +31 4.1 June 1984 100% 65 31 4 +34 4.0 March 1984 100% 64 31 5 +33 4.1 November 1983 100% 58 37 6 +11 3.8 June 1983 100% 57 34 8 +14 3.8 Feb./March 1983 100% 51 42 7 + 9 3.9 Average 1982 100% 54 39 7 +15 3.9 Black November 1984 100% 25 64 11 -39 2.1 Oct. 12-20 1984 100% 27 69 3 -42 2.1 September 1984 100% 22 71 7 -49 2.3 July/Aug. 1984 100% 28 67 5 -39 2.1 June 1984 100% 20 70 10 -50 2.4 March 1984 100% 26 68 5 -42 2.2 Nov. 1983 100% 18 74 9 -56 2.1 June 1983 100% 14 77 11 -63 2.2 Feb./March 1983 100% 6 83 11 -77 2.1 Average 1982 100% 16 75 9 -59 2.3 (a) Results are for the job performance rating asked early in the interview. (b) Percentage Difference Index = % "Approve" minus "Disapprove". (c) Average is based on a 7-point scale on which "Strong Democrat =1 and "Strong Republican" = 7. LIBRARY GERALD R. FORD - 116 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH DISTRIBUTION OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION IN THE U.S. 1952-1984 70 ГЕФИЕВ? 60 60 ЗЕБОВГІСЬИ 59 57 55 56 54 54 53 54 54 50 53 53 51 51 51 51 47 117 PERCENT 40 40 41 37 39 34 34 34 34 33 32 30 33 33 33 30 31 30 29 REPUBLICAN IDENTIFIERS & 20 LEANERS DEMOCRATIC IDENTIFIERS & LEANERS 10 0 0 0 0 0 N 0 N N N N 0 JN 0 S S N GERALD 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 R. LIBRARY FORD TRANSIL 4080 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH DISTRIBUTION OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION IN THE U.S. 1979-1984 70 60 55 БЕМСЕЙ 53 54 51 51 51 51 50 53 47 51 48 49 50 46 46 46 47 49 45 44 45 45 118 I 40 40 45 38 39 39 39 44 38 41 42 41 PERCENT 37 37 36 34 30 30 REPUBLICAN 20 IDENTIFIERS & LEANERS so ++++. DEMOCRATIC 10 IDENTIFIERS & LEANERS 0 NOV JUN SEP JUN NOV F/M MAY JUL SEP NOV F/M JUN NOV MAA JUN J/A SEP OCT 'NOV 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 82 82 83 83 83 84 84 84 84 84 84 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH The Distribution of Party Identification in the United States: 1952-1984 Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, an Independent, or what? (IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT) Would you call yourself a strong (R)/(D) or not very strong (R)/(D)? (IF INDEPENDENT) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party? Feb./ Feb./ July/ June Nov. March May July Sept. Nov. March June Nov. March June Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1981 1981 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 Democrat Strong 15% 14% 21% 17% 17% 18% 16% 17% 18% 19% 15% 16% 20% 17% 20% 17% Weak 19 18 20 19 17 17 20 18 17 20 17 16 15 14 15 13 Independent Democrat 12 15 12 15 16 16 15 16 16 10 14 16 14 15 12 11 Independent 9 11 11 12 10 10 10 10 11 12 8 10 7 9 8 10 Republican 18 15 11 15 15 15 14 16 15 9 17 17 17 18 16 18 Republican Weak 14 14 11 13 12 12 12 12 11 13 13 11 12 13 11 13 Strong 13 12 12 10 12 12 11 11 11 14 14 14 15 15 18 17 Apolitical, Don't know * * 2 * 1 * 2 * 1 2 * * * * 1 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (1505)(1503)(1511) (1503) (1501) (1199)( 800)(1501)(1500)(1518)(1500) (1500) (1503) (1200) (1198) (3000) (continued on next page) GERALD R. FORD LIBRARY MARKET OPINION RESEARCH The Distribution of Party Identification in the United States: 1952-1984 Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, an Independent, or what? (IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT) Would you call yourself a strong (R)/(D)? (IF INDEPENDENT) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Repub- lican or Democratic Party? (cont'd.) Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Oct. Dec. June Oct. Nov. June Sept. 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1974 1976 1978 1979 1980 1980 Democrat Strong 22% 22% 21% 23% 21% 23% 26% 18% 20% 20% 15% 17% 22% 21% 15% 18% 16% 15% Weak 25 25 23 24 25 23 25 27 25 23 25 21 20 23 24 25 23 22 Independent Democrat 10 9 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 13 16 15 14 12 15 16 Independent 5 7 9 8 8 8 8 12 11 13 13 15 16 11 14 14 9 8 120 I Republican 7 6 8 4 7 6 6 7 9 8 11 9 8 8 9 8 15 16 Republican Weak 14 14 14 16 13 16 13 15 14 15 13 14 11 12 13 12 13 14 Strong 13 13 15 13 14 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 9 8 10 10 10 Apolitical, Don't know 4 4 3 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 2 * * * 3 1 * * 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (1614) (1139)(1772)(1269)(3021)(1289)(1571)(1291)(1553)(1802) (2705)(2505)(2000)(1537)( NA)(1506)(1200)(1200) Center for Political Studies The University of Michigan 1953-1974 (October), October, 1978. Market Opinion Research, December, 1974, June 1976-1983. *Less than 1% mention. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Social Group Profile of the Party Coalitions, 1952-1982 Democrat Party Identifiers 1952- 1962- 1960 1972 1976 1980 1984 WASPs 19% 20% 17% 17% 19% Catholics 13 16 19 16 23 Northern Union 22 19 18 18 13 White Southerners 31 25 23 23 20 Jews 5 3 4 6 5 Blacks 10 16 18 21 20 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Republican Party Identifiers 1952- 1962- 1960 1972 1976 1980 1984 WASPs 56% 51% 51% 43% 34% Catholics 10 10 14 16 16 Northern Union 18 13 11 14 10 White Southerners 11 23 21 24 34 Jews 1 1 1 * 2 Blacks 5 2 2 3 2 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% LIBRARY GERALD R. FORD - 121 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Party Identification by Age Party Identification Strong Weak Lean Lean Weak Strong Total Dem. Dem. Dem. Indep. Rep. Rep. Rep. Age * 18-20 6% 5% 6% 6% 4% 5% 9% 7% 21-29 22 17 20 21 19 23 26 23 30-39 23 19 21 28 31 25 21 18 40-54 21 19 25 21 22 23 18 21 55-64 2 13 16 13 11 13 14 11 11 65+ 15 24 16 13 12 9 15 21 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (a) Party Identification Democrat Republicans Age * 18-20 5.5% 7% 21-29 19 24 30- 39 s 22 22 40-54 22 21 55-64 14 12 55+ 18 15 100% 100% *Non-black. (a) Collapsed: Strong + Weak + Lean. - 122 — MARKET OPINION RESEARCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRAMS AND POLICIES OF THE REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO SOLVE PROBLEMS 70 60 50 49 50 47 123 41 40 PERCENT 36 37 37 34 35 35 35 36 34 34 30 32 33 34 35 35 32 32 29 DOLLA OL CUS D9LLA so 20146 rue LOCIUS DUE conuril; sug 42 EUG 36 IV 32 33 33 30 20 REPUBLICAN PARTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY 10 USAG Aon 0 MAY JULY SEPT OCT NOV F/M JUNE NOV MAR JUNE JT/A SEPT OCT NOV DO WVKKE1 ОЫИӀОЙ BEREVKCH GERALD 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 R. LIBRARY FORD MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you have more confidence in the policies and programs of the Republican party or the Democratic party to solve the problems facing the country? Responses (VOLUN- TEERED) No 3HT Rep. Dem. Nei- Opi- Party Party Both ther nion Total 50% 29% 4% 10% 7% Segmentation Groups High income 67 17 3 9 5 Trend Intelligentsia 55 27 4 9 5 Middle class 57 25 3 8 7 No Lower end 45 30 3 10 11 Nei- Opi- Jews 33 41 2 21 3 Rep. Dem. Both ther nion Hispanics 47 35 6 4 7 Black 12 67 4 12 6 Nov 1984 50% 29% 4% 10% 7% Sex Oct 1984 49 36 4 3 8 Men 54 25 4 11 6 Sept. Women 46 33 4 8 8 1984 47 32 3 8 10 July/Aug., 1984 42 36 4 8 9 June, 1984 41 33 3 10 13 March, 1984 37 35 5 11 13 Nov 1983 32 37 9 13 9 June, 1983 35 35 7 11 12 Feb. / Mar 1983 34 34 4 13 14 Nov 1982 33 35 4 18 11 Oct 1982 33 35 5 12 15 Sept. 1982 36 34 5 12 13 July, 1982 32 32 7 14 16 May, 1982 34 30 6 13 11 - 124 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Average Thermometer Ratings* Oct. July/ Feb. / Feb./ Nov. 12-20, Sept. Aug. Nov. March March Nov. June 1984 1984 1984 1984 1983 1983 1982 1981 1981 Number of Cases (3000) (1198) (1200) (1503) (1518) (1500) (1511) (1503) (1505) Ronald Reagan 63° 64° 62° 61° 55° 57° 54° 65° 69° House of Rep. 61 -- 59 58 -- : : -- -- REPUBLICAN PARTY 60 60 58 57 52 54 52 58 60 DEMOCRATIC PARTY 57 59 58 60 57 61 58 58 58 Gary Hart 57 -- -- : : -- -- : -- George Bush 54 56 56 53 49 56 50 59 60 Edward Kennedy 54 : : 55 -- 49 51 -- 47 Walter Mondale 50 54 51 54 50 55 49 : 54 Tip O'Neill 49 49 49 50 : 55 49 51 52 Geraldine Ferraro 48 53 51 59 : -- -- : : Jerry Falwell 30 : : : -- -- 30 : -- Jimmy Carter -- 47 49 49 : 49 49 49 48 Jesse Jackson -- 44 47 47 37 : -- : 45 Nancy Reagan -- : 53 51 -- -- 44 : -- John Anderson -- : : -- -- 49 -- : 50 Liberals -- -- : : 47 : 41 : 41 Alexander Haig -- : : -- -- 45 : 51 David Stockman -- -- : : -- 45 42 -- : Jerry Brown -- -- : : : : 42 -- 45 Jesse Helms -- -- : -- : 42 -- : 44 Moral Majority -- : -- -- -- -- -- -- 41 George Wallace -- : : : : 40 37 : : Jane Fonda -- -- -- : 39 45 -- : Feminists -- : -- : 38 : : Ann Gorsuch : -- : : : 36 -- : : James Watt -- -- : -- : 35 35 : : Richard Nixon -- -- : -- -- 34 32 : -- Conservatives -- -- -- -- 53 -- 45 : 48 Gerald Ford -- -- : 53 -- 55 53 : 56 Howard Baker -- -- : -- : : 50 57 58 Paul Volker -- -- : -- -- 52 -- I -- John Glenn -- -- -- -- 50 59 -- -- Bob Dole -- -- -- : -- 52 -- : -- Barry Goldwater -- : : -- -- -- 47 : : Based on scale in which 0=very cold or unfavorable, 100=very warm or favor- able. LIBRARY GERALD R. FORD - 125 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Total November, 1984 100% 47% 10% 41% + 6 October 12-20, 1984 100% 45 8 46 - 1 September, 1984 100% 45 9 46 - 1 July/August, 1984 100% 44 7 49 - 5 June, 1984 100% 42 10 48 - 6 March, 1984 100% 44 8 46 - 2 November, 1983 100% 36 12 49 -13 June, 1983 100% 41 12 47 - 6 February/March, 1983 100% 39 10 51 -12 Political Regions New England November, 1984 100% 47 12 39 + 8 October 12-20, 1984 100% 44 9 45 - 1 September, 1984 100% 40 13 47 - 7 July/August, 1984 100% 43 5 50 - 7 June, 1984 100% 39 14 47 - 8 March, 1984 100% 41 8 51 -10 November, 1983 100% 35 16 50 -15 June, 1983 100% 32 18 51 -19 February/March, 1983 100% 44 12 45 - 1 Middle Atlantic November, 1984 100% 46 10 42 + 4 October 12-20, 1984 100% 42 10 49 - 7 September, 1984 100% 45 10 43 + 2 July/August, 1984 100% 43 6 50 - 7 June, 1984 100% 40 12 46 - 6 March, 1984 100% 42 9 49 - 7 November, 1983 100% 38 10 48 -10 June, 1983 100% 36 12 51 -15 February/March, 1983 100% 40 8 50 -10 (continued on next page) - 126 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Political Regions (cont'd.) East North Central November, 1984 100% 49% 10% 40% + 9 October 12-20, 1984 100% 44 11 44 + 0 September, 1984 100% 48 10 41 + 7 July/August, 1984 100% 46 11 43 + 3 June, 1984 100% 41 13 47 - 6 March, 1984 100% 47 7 45 + 2 November, 1983 100% 40 14 46 - 6 June, 1983 100% 42 14 42 + 0 February/March, 1983 100% 35 13 53 -18 West North Central November, 1984 100% 52 9 39 +13 October 12-20, 1984 100% 44 8 47 - 3 September, 1984 100% 58 3 40 +18 July/August, 1984 100% 47 4 48 - 1 June, 1984 100% 53 6 42 +11 March, 1984 100% 47 4 49 - 2 November, 1983 100% 48 5 48 + 0 June, 1983 100% 43 7 50 - 7 February/March, 1983 100% 44 12 44 + 0 Border States November, 1984 100% 47 11 40 + 7 October 12-20, 1984 100% 42 7 50 - 8 September, 1984 100% 38 10 52 -14 July/August, 1984 100% 37 8 54 -17 June, 1984 100% 39 6 55 -16 March, 1984 100% 44 7 49 - 5 November, 1983 100% 35 9 53 -18 June, 1983 100% 36 9 52 -16 February/March, 1983 100% 33 7 62 -29 (continued on next page) R. FORD GERALD LIBRARY - 127 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDA Political Regions (cont'd.) Deep South November, 1984 100% 46% 10% 43% + 3 October 12-20, 1984 100% 50 7 43 + 7 September, 1984 100% 43 8 48 - 5 July/August, 1984 100% 45 5 49 - 4 June, 1984 100% 41 8 49 - 8 March, 1984 100% 43 9 47 - 4 November, 1983 100% 31 16 52 -21 June, 1983 100% 32 11 57 -25 February/March, 1983 100% 38 9 53 -15 Mountain November, 1984 100% 45 13 40 + 5 October 12-20, 1984 100% 52 8 41 +11 September, 1984 100% 49 7 44 + 5 July/August, 1984 100% 52 4 45 + 7 June, 1984 100% 41 8 49 - 8 March, 1984 100% 56 12 31 +25 November, 1983 100% 44 10 43 + 1 June, 1983 100% 45 8 46 - 1 February/March, 1983 100% 43 6 49 - 6 Pacific November, 1984 100% 48 11 40 + 8 October 12-20, 1984 100% 43 6 51 - 8 September, 1984 100% 43 7 50 - 7 July/August, 1984 100% 41 6 51 -10 June, 1984 100% 48 8 44 + 4 March, 1984 100% 43 9 47 - 4 November, 1983 100% 32 12 53 -21 June, 1983 100% 40 7 52 -12 February/March, 1983 100% 40 10 49 - 9 (continued on next page) - 128 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Non-Black Regions Middle Atlantic November, 1984 100% 52% 11% 35% +17 October 12-20, 1984 100% 45 9 45 + 0 September, 1984 100% 51 10 37 +14 July/August, 1984 100% 47 6 46 + 1 June, 1984 100% 46 13 41 + 5 March, 1984 100% 48 10 41 + 7 November, 1983 100% 40 10 43 - 3 June, 1983 100% 40 13 47 - 7 February/March, 1983 100% 43 9 46 - 3 East North Central November, 1984 100% 53 10 36 +17 October 12-20, 1984 100% 46 12 42 + 4 September, 1984 100% 53 11 36 +17 July/August, 1984 100% 51 10 37 +14 June, 1984 100% 45 14 42 + 3 March, 1984 100% 52 7 40 +12 November, 1983 100% 43 15 42 + 1 June, 1983 100% 45 14 39 + 6 February/March, 1983 100% 38 14 47 - 9 Border States November, 1984 100% 53 11 35 +18 October 12-20, 1984 100% 49 8 43 + 6 September, 1984 100% 43 9 48 - 5 July/August, 1984 100% 46 8 48 - 2 June, 1984 100% 44 6 50 - 6 March, 1984 100% 47 8 43 + 4 November, 1983 100% 36 10 52 -16 June, 1983 100% 39 10 49 -10 February/March, 1983 100% 35 6 59 -24 (continued on next page) LIBRARY GERALD R. FORD - 129 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Non-Black Regions (cont'd.) Deep South November, 1984 100% 55% 9% 35% +20 October 12-20, 1984 100% 58 7 33 +25 September, 1984 100% 50 7 42 + 8 July/August, 1984 100% 52 5 43 + 9 June, 1984 100% 47 9 44 + 3 March, 1984 100% 49 10 40 + 9 November, 1983 100% 35 18 45 -10 June, 1983 100% 37 12 50 -13 February/March, 1983 100% 45 10 46 - 1 North November, 1984 100% 51 11 37 +14 October 12-20, 1984 100% 46 9 45 + 1 September, 1984 100% 50 9 40 +10 July/August, 1984 100% 47 7 45 + 2 June, 1984 100% 47 11 42 + 5 March, 1984 100% 49 9 42 + 7 November, 1983 100% 40 12 46 - 6 June, 1983 100% 42 12 46 - 4 February/March, 1983 100% 42 11 46 - 4 South November, 1984 100% 54 10 35 +19 October 12-20, 1984 100% 57 7 36 +21 September, 1984 100% 48 7 44 + 4 July/August, 1984 100% 51 6 43 + 8 June, 1984 100% 46 8 45 + 1 March, 1984 100% 49 9 41 + 8 November, 1983 100% 36 16 47 -11 June, 1983 100% 38 12 49 -11 February/March, 1983 100% 42 9 50 - 8 (continued on next page) - 130 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Age 18-24 November, 1984 100% 53% 9% 38% +15 October 12-20, 1984 100% 61 6 35 +26 September, 1984 100% 53 9 37 +16 July/August, 1984 100% 43 4 53 -10 June, 1984 100% 45 7 47 - 2 March, 1984 100% 52 7 41 +11 November, 1983 100% 35 20 43 - 8 June, 1983 100% 38 12 50 -12 February/March, 1983 100% 42 10 49 - 7 25-39 November, 1984 100% 47 12 40 + 7 October 12-20, 1984 100% 45 9 46 - 1 September, 1984 100% 43 11 46 - 3 July/August, 1984 100% 49 5 45 + 4 June, 1984 100% 40 11 48 - 8 March, 1984 100% 42 9 48 - 6 November, 1983 100% 34 14 49 -15 June, 1983 100% 34 11 54 - 9 February/Larch, 1983 100% 39 11 50 -10 40-54 November, 1984 100% 47 10 41 + 6 October 12-20, 1984 100% 39 8 54 -15 September, 1984 100% 43 6 50 - 7 July/August, 1984 100% 39 9 50 -11 June, 1984 100% 49 8 43 + 6 March, 1984 100% 41 9 49 - 8 November, 1983 100% 34 11 53 -19 June, 1983 100% 41 12 46 - 5 February/March, 1983 100% 41 9 50 - 9 (continued on next page) R. FORD GERALD LIBRARA - 131 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Age (cont'd.) 55-64 November, 1984 100% 46% 10% 43% + 3 October 12-20, 1984 100% 42 7 49 - 7 September, 1984 100% 45 7 47 - 2 July/August, 1984 100% 42 5 53 -11 June, 1984 100% 40 10 50 -10 March, 1984 100% 42 7 50 - 8 November, 1983 100% 38 10 52 -14 June, 1983 100% 39 8 54 -15 February/March, 1983 100% 33 10 57 -24 65 and Over November, 1984 100% 45 8 46 - 1 October 12-20, 1984 100% 41 8 50 - 9 September, 1984 100% 43 6 49 - 5 July/August, 1984 100% 44 9 48 - 4 June, 1984 100% 39 11 51 -12 March, 1984 100% 51 8 40 +11 November, 1983 100% 43 5 52 - 9 June, 1983 100% 37 13 51 -14 February/March, 1983 100% 37 9 54 -17 Sex Male November, 1984 100% 50 11 38 +12 October 12-20, 1984 100% 48 9 41 + 7 September, 1984 100% 50 8 42 + 8 July/August, 1984 100% 49 6 45 + 4 June, 1984 100% 46 10 43 + 3 March, 1984 100% 47 8 45 + 2 November, 1983 100% 41 12 44 - 3 June, 1983 100% 40 11 48 - 8 February/March, 1983 100% 41 10 49 - 8 (continued on next page) - 132 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Sex (cont'd.) Female November, 1984 100% 45% 10% 44% + 1 October 12-20, 1984 100% 42 8 50 - 8 September, 1984 100% 41 9 50 - 9 July/August, 1984 100% 40 7 52 -12 June, 1984 100% 39 9 52 -13 March, 1984 100% 43 9 48 - 5 November, 1983 100% 31 13 54 -23 June, 1983 100% 35 11 54 -19 February/March, 1983 100% 36 10 54 -18 Status Groups High Income November, 1984 100% 62 8 29 +33 October 12-20, 1984 100% 58 6 34 +24 September, 1984 100% 60 5 35 +25 July/August, 1984 100% 58 7 35 +23 June, 1984 100% 54 8 38 +16 March, 1984 100% 56 6 38 +18 November, 1983 100% 47 13 38 + 9 June, 1983 100% 53 8 39 +14 February/March, 1983 100% 51 12 37 +14 Intelligentsia November, 1984 100% 53 10 37 +16 October 12-20, 1984 100% 46 8 45 + 1 September, 1984 100% 52 5 45 + 7 July/August, 1984 100% 48 7 45 + 3 June, 1984 100% 50 7 43 + 7 March, 1984 100% 47 11 43 + 4 November, 1983 100% 44 6 48 - 4 June, 1983 100% 39 8 52 -13 February/March, 1983 100% 45 9 44 + 1 (continued on next page) FORD & GERALD LIBRARY - 133 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Status Groups (cont'd.) Middle Class November, 1984 100% 55% 9% 36% +19 October 12-20, 1984 100% 54 7 37 +17 September, 1984 100% 53 8 38 +15 July/August, 1984 100% 51 8 40 +11 June, 1984 100% 48 9 44 + 4 March, 1984 100% 51 10 39 +12 November, 1983 100% 43 12 44 - 1 June, 1983 100% 43 14 44 - 1 February/March, 1983 100% 41 9 49 - 8 Lower End November, 1984 100% 45 13 42 + 3 October 12-20, 1984 100% 41 10 48 - 7 September, 1984 100% 45 10 45 + 0 July/August, 1984 100% 42 6 53 -11 June, 1984 100% 38 13 48 -10 March, 1984 100% 43 11 46 - 3 November, 1983 100% 31 15 53 -22 June, 1983 100% 32 13 53 -21 February/March, 1983 100% 31 14 56 -25 Jews November, 1984 100% 26 10 63 -37 October 12-20, 1984 100% 26 12 60 -34 September, 1984 100% 26 5 66 -40 July/August, 1984 100% 29 2 68 -39 June, 1984 100% 22 16 61 -39 March, 1984 100% 31 -- 69 -38 November, 1983 100% 22 10 62 -40 June, 1983 100% 14 16 71 -57 February/March, 1983 100% 16 8 79 -63 (continued on next page) - 134 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Status Groups (cont'd.) Hispanics November, 1984 100% 35% 12% 53% -18 October 12-20, 1984 100% 34 -- 67 -33 September, 1984 100% 28 3 68 -40 July/August, 1984 100% 20 6 75 -55 June, 1984 100% 23 7 67 -44 March, 1984 100% 36 5 58 -22 November, 1983 100% 16 17 65 -49 June, 1983 100% 29 6 64 -35 February/March, 1983 100% 36 2 61 -25 Black November, 1984 100% 8 9 82 -74 October 12-20, 1984 100% 10 5 84 -74 September, 1984 100% 8 12 81 -73 July/August, 1984 100% 11 6 81 -72 June, 1984 100% 9 6 83 -74 March, 1984 100% 10 5 85 -75 November, 1983 100% 12 6 83 -71 June, 1983 100% 7 7 87 -80 February/March, 1983 100% 7 5 89 -82 Tracer Groups Non-Union W.A.S.P. November, 1984 100% 60 10 30 +30 October 12-20, 1984 100% 58 8 33 +25 September, 1984 100% 59 9 32 +27 July/August, 1984 100% 58 5 37 +21 June, 1984 100% 54 10 37 +17 March, 1984 100% 56 7 37 +19 November, 1983 100% 51 13 37 +14 June, 1983 100% 54 12 33 +21 February/March, 1983 100% & FORD (continued on next page) GERALD LIBRARY - 135 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Trend to Party Identification by Subgroups (1983-1984) (cont'd.) (a) Total Republican Independent Democrat PDI Tracer Groups (cont'd.) Non-Union Catholic November, 1984 100% 47% 12% 40% + 7 October 12-20, 1984 100% 38 8 54 -16 September, 1984 100% 46 9 46 + 0 July/August, 1984 100% 41 7 51 -10 June, 1984 100% 42 11 48 - 6 March, 1984 100% 46 9 47 - 1 November, 1983 100% 36 9 52 -16 June, 1983 100% 33 13 53 -20 February/March, 1983 100% Union North November, 1984 100% 47 12 40 + 7 October 12-20, 1984 100% 42 7 51 - 9 September, 1984 100% 47 6 46 + 1 Htly/August, 1884 000% 43 8 40 - 7 Hund, 1984 100% NA NA NA NA March, 1984 100% 43 11 45 - 2 November, 1983 100% 38 13 48 -10 June, 1983 100% 40 7 54 -14 February/March, 1983 100% White South November, 1984 100% 56 9 33 +23 October 12-20, 1984 100% 58 8 35 +23 September, 1984 100% 51 8 41 +10 July/August, 1984 100% 53 6 42 +11 June, 1984 100% 47 8 45 + 2 March, 1984 100% 50 10 39 +11 November, 1983 100% 37 14 47 -10 June, 1983 100% 38 12 48 -10 February/March, 1983 100% (a)pDI: Percentage Difference Index = % "Republican identifiers" minus % "Democratic identifiers." - 136 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Here are some things about the Republican Party that some people find attractive and other people do not like. For each one please tell me if it tends to attract you to the Republican Party and its candidates, pushes you away from the Republican Party and its candidates, or has no effect on your opinion. Attracts Pushes You Has You To The Away From No Effect Don't Republican Republican On Your Know/ (a) Party Party Opinion Refused PDI Its support of a balanced budget amendment. 59% 13% 21% 7% +46 Its tough-minded approach toward the Soviet Union 57 21 15 7 +36 Its position on national defense. 57 23 13 7 +34 Its opposition to big government. 48 19 21 12 +29 137 Its support of voluntary school prayer. 50 21 25 4 +29 Its opposition to a tax increase to reduce the deficit. 50 28 16 6 +22 Its position on nuclear arms control. 49 28 15 8 +21 Its opposition to the liberal welfare state. 38 22 25 14 +16 Its position on government spending. 45 29 18 8 +16 Its support for military action to contain Communist influence in Central America. 43 30 17 10 +13 Its position on Social Security. 43 30 17 11 +13 Its position on the environment. 36 24 28 13 +12 Its position on women's rights. 35 27 29 9 + 8 Its general opposition to abortion. 29 36 29 5 - 7 Its connection to Jerry Falwell. 9 44 29 19 -35 GERALD (a)PDI: Percentage Difference Index = % "Attracts" minus % "Pushes Away." = R. LIBRARY FORD MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Percentage Difference Indices for Republican Party Issue Positions (a) Other Status / Status Groups Tracer Groups Tracer Groups High Intelli- - Middle Lower Union White His- Total Income gentsia Class End WASP Catholic North South Jews panics Blacks Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (3002) (682) (256) (688) (542) (852) (429) (332) (762) ( 86) (113) (329) Its support of a balanced budget amendment. +46 +58 +49 +52 +48 +52 +52 +41 +56 +19 +38 +16 Its tough-minded approach toward the Soviet Union. +36 +54 +41 +41 +29 +43 +33 +43 +18 + 6 +33 - 4 Its position on national defense. +34 +49 +29 +44 +37 +40 +33 +38 +54 -13 +39 -11 138 I Its opposition to big government +29 +55 +43 +33 +16 +36 +32 +33 +40 + 3 +13 - 7 Its support of voluntary school prayer. +29 +24 + 5 +36 +51 +25 +27 +26 +50 -48 +24 +30 Its opposition to a tax increase to reduce the deficit. +22 +40 +22 +31 +13 +30 +29 +15 +31 - 5 +28 -14 Its position on nuclear arms control. +21 +34 +17 +28 +27 +29 +20 +19 +41 -17 +25 -24 Its opposition to the liberal welfare state. +16 +36 +16 +18 +10 +19 +20 +13 +29 -13 + 8 -13 Its position on govern- ment spending. +16 +39 +24 +23 + 9 +27 +13 +16 +34 -21 - 2 -30 Its support for military action to contain Communist influence in Central America. +13 +22 + 2 +20 +14 +15 + 7 +16 +29 -32 +31 -15 (continued on next page) MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Percentage Difference Indices for Republican Party Issue Positions (a) (cont'd.) Other Status/ Status Groups Tracer Groups Tracer Groups High Intelli- Middle Lower Union White His- Total Income gentsia Class End WASP Catholic North South Jews panics Blacks Its position on Social Security. +13 +22 + 2 +16 +19 +20 + 6 + 3 +30 -21 +21 -22 Its position on the environment. +12 +13 - 8 +14 +21 +13 + 6 + 8 +24 -28 +28 +1 Its position on women's rights. + 8 + 8 - 5 +12 +23 + 9 +13 + 1 +22 -33 +23 -12 Its general opposition to abortion. - 7 - 6 -16 - 3 + 4 - 7 + 2 - 4 + 2 -54 - 5 -22 139 Its connection with Jerry Falwell. -35 -41 -52 -33 -24 -36 -41 -38 -27 -74 -17 -36 GERALD R. FORD LIBRARY (a) Numbers in table are calculated from % "Position attracts you to Republican Party" minus % "position pushes you away from Republican Party." MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Percentage Difference Indices for Republican Party Issue Positions (a) Reported Vote: Reported Vote: 6080 Target Groups Congress President Marg- Marg. Solid inal inal Solid Reagan Repub- Repub- Dem- Dem- Repub- Dem- Differ- Reagan/ Mondale/Differ- Dem-(b) Total lican lican Target ocrat ocrat lican ocrat ence Bush Ferraro ence ocrats Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (3002) (843) (199) (1204) ( 93) (664) (1042) (1082) 1381) (877) (288) Its support of a balanced budget amendment. +46 +75 +44 +48 +40 +8 +69 +26 43 +68 +13 55 +61 Its tough-minded approach toward the Soviet Union. +36 +76 +31 +41 +15 -23 +68 + 6 62 +73 -18 91 +67 140 I Its position on national defense. +34 +82 +32 +40 + 2 -31 +72 - 1 73 +77 -29 106 +70 Its opposition to big government. +29 +64 +34 +28 + 7 -11 +58 + 8 50 +59 - 7 66 +49 Its support of voluntary school prayer. +29 +52 +19 +34 +16 - 5 +45 + 9 36 +48 - 3 51 +40 Its opposition to a tax increase to reduce the deficit. +22 +58 +14 +26 -10 -21 +49 - 2 51 +54 -20 74 +44 Its position on nuclear arms control. +21 +65 +13 +29 - 5 -41 +55 -14 69 +58 -35 93 +44 Its opposition to the liberal welfare state. +16 +54 +14 +18 + 2 -33 +46 -11 57 +47 -27 74 +36 Its position on govern- ment spending. +16 +65 + 8 +19 -22 -42 +53 -16 69 +55 -39 94 +44 Its support for military action to contain Communist influence in Central America. +13 +52 + 8 +16 -18 -37 +44 -18 62 +45 -35 80 +29 (continued on next page) MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Percentage Difference Indices for Republican Party Issue Positions (a) (cont'd.) Reported Vote Reported Vote: Target Groups Congress: President: Marg- Marg. Solid inal inal Solid Reagan Repub- Repub- Dem- Dem- Repub- Dem- Differ- Reagan/ Mondale/Differ- Dem-(b) Total lican lican Target ocrat ocrat lican ocrat ence Bush Ferraro ence ocrats Its position on Social Security. +13 +53 +6 +19 -19 -45 +44 -19 63 63 -41 88 +40 Its position on the environment. +12 +43 - 5 +17 -11 -29 +34 -15 49 49 -28 64 +20 141 I I Its position on women's rights. + 8 +37 - 1 +17 -21 -37 +30 -21 51 51 -36 68 +15 Its general opposition to abortion. - 7 +17 -17 - 3 -17 -39 +11 -26 38 37 -39 53 +7 Its connection with Jerry Falwell. -35 -18 -43 -30 -56 -61 -23 -53 30 30 -61 82 -34 (a) Numbers in table are calculated from % "Position attracts you to Republican Party" minus % "position pushes you away from Republican Party." (b) Reagan voters who voted Democratic for Congress. GERALD R. LIBRARY FORD MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of What Attracts and Repels the Voters About the Republican Party(a) Democrats* Republicans Defense .87 USSR .86 B.B.A. .84 B.B.A. .62 Spending .79 Prayer .51 Big Gov't .79 Big Gov't .51 Arms .79 Taxes .76 USSR .49 Prayer .73 Taxes .45 LWS .73 Defense .45 Soc. Sec. .73 LWS .42 C. America .71 Arms .41 Environment .40 Environment .67 Women .67 C. America .39 Women .39 Abortion .56 Spending .37 Soc. Sec. .37 Abortion .35 Falwell .39 Falwell .22 KEY: Abortion = its general opposition to ..; Spending = its position on government spending; B.B.A. = its position on a balanced budget amendment; Taxes = its opposition to a tax increase to reduce the deficit; Prayer = its support of voluntary school prayer; Environment = its position on...; C. America = its support of military action to contain communist influence in. ..; Women = its position on women's rights; LWS = its opposition to the liberal welfare state; USSR = its tough-minded approach toward the Soviet Union; Big Gov't = its opposition to. ..; Arms = its position on nuclear arms control; Soc. Sec. = its position on Social Security; Defense = its position on national defense; Falwell = its connection with Jerry Falwell. (a) Results are averages based on 0 = "pushes you away", .5 = "has no effect", 1.0 = "attracts you to". *Non black. ТЭХЯАМ - 142 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of What Attracts and Repels the Voters About the Republican Party(a) Democrats* Republicans 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Defense .87 Defense .87 USSR .86 B.B.A. .85 B.B.A. .83 USSR .85 Big Gov't .80 B.B.A. .65 Spending .79 Arms .80 Big Gov't .78 Big Gov't .54 B.B.A. .59 Arms .78 Spending .79 USSR .50 Prayer .56 Taxes .77 Soc. Sec. .79 Prayer .71 Taxes .75 Taxes .47 Defense .49 C. America .71 Prayer .75 Prayer .46 USSR .48 LWS .70 LWS .75 Defense .42 Big Gov't .48 C. America .72 LWS .41 Arms .46 Soc. Sec. .68 Environment .44 Women .67 Environment .69 Spending .39 Women .43 Environment .65 Women .66 C. America .38 LWS .43 Environment .37 Taxes .43 Abortion .56 Abortion .55 Women .37 Soc. Sec. .41 Arms .34 C. America .40 Falwell .40 Soc. Sec. .33 Abortion .31 Abortion .39 Falwell .38 Spending .34 Falwell .22 Falwell .22 KEY: Abortion = its general opposition to. ; Spending = its position on government spending; B.B.A. = its position on a balanced budget amendment; Taxes = its opposition to a tax increase to reduce the deficit; Prayer = its support of voluntary school prayer; Environment = its position on C. America = its support of military action to contain communist influence in. ..; Women = its position on women's rights; LWS = its opposition to the liberal welfare state; USSR = its tough-minded approach toward the Soviet Union; Big Gov't = its opposition to. ..; Arms = its position on nuclear arms control; Soc. Sec. = its position on Social Security; Defense = its position on national defense; Falwell = its connection with Jerry Falwell. (a) Results are averages based on 0 = "pushes you away", 5 = "has no effect", 1.0 = "attracts you to". R. GERALD FORD *Non black. LIBRARY - 143 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of What Attracts and Repels the Voters About the Republican Party(a) Democrats* Independents* Weak/Leaning Republicans Strong Republicans 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 3 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 BBA .65 BBA .59 BBA .74 BBA .75 Defense .85 Defense .85 Defense .91 Defense .91 Prayer .72 USSR .83 BBA .84 USSR .91 Big Gov't .54 Prayer .56 Defense .68 Defense .72 BBA .82 USSR .84 USSR .87 USSR .50 Prayer .67 BBA .86 BBA .85 Defense .49 USSR .67 USSR .68 Spending .77 Big gov 't.78 Arms .84 Arms .84 Taxes .47 USSR .48 Big gov't.67 Arms .67 Big gov t.77 Spending .77 Spending .83 Big Gov 't.83 Prayer .46 Big gov 't.48 Taxes .64 Big gov 't.63 Arms .76 Arms .77 Taxes .81 Soc. Sec..83 Defense .42 Arms .46 Arms .62 Taxes .61 Taxes .75 Soc. Sec..76 Big gov 't.80 Spending .81 LWS .41 Environ. .44 Environ. .60 LWS .74 Prayer .77 Taxes .81 Women .43 Environ. .59 LWS .69 Prayer .73 Spending .39 LWS .43 Spending .57 LWS .59 C. Amer. .69 Taxes .71 C. Amer. .76 Prayer .78 144 I C. Amer. .38 Taxes .43 LWS .57 Soc. Sec. .59 Prayer .68 Soc. Sec. .75 LWS .78 Environ. .37 Soc. Sec. .41 Soc. Sec..57 Women .56 Women .64 C. Amer. .69 LWS .74 C. Amer. .76 Women .37 C. Amer. .40 C. Amer. .56 Spending .55 Soc. Sec. .64 Environ. .67 Environ. .71 Environ. .74 Arms .34 Women .51 C. Amer. .53 Environ. .63 Women .63 Women .71 Women .72 Soc. Sec. .33 Abortion .39 Abortion .31 Spending .34 Abortion .47 Abortion .47 Abortion .53 Abortion .53 Abortion .63 Abortion .60 Falwell .22 Falwell .22 Falwell .37 Falwell .33 Falwell .36 Falwell .36 Falwell .43 Falwell .46 KEY: Abortion = its general opposition to...; ..; Spending = its position on government spending; BBA = its position on a balanced budget amendment; Taxes = its opposition to a tax increase to reduce the deficit; Prayer = its support of voluntary school prayer; Environment = its position on. .; C. Amer. = its support of military action to contain communist influence in. ; Women = its position on women's rights; LWS = its opposition to the liberal welfare state; USSR = its tough-minded approach toward the Soviet Union; Big Gov't = its opposition to . ; Arms = its position on nuclear arms control; Soc. Sec. = its position on Social Security; Defense = its position on national defense; Falwell = its connection with Jerry Falwell. (a) Results are averages based on 0 = "pushes you away", .5 = "has no effect", 1.0 = "attracts you to". MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of What Attracts and Repels the Voters About the Republican Party(a) (b) Republicans 18-20 21-29 30-39 40+ USSR .82 Defense .87 Defense .89 Defense .87 BBA .81 USSR .84 USSR .89 BBA .85 Defense .81 BBA .83 BBA .84 USSR .85 Spending .82 Big gov't .80 Arms .76 Arms .79 Big gov't .81 Arms .80 Soc. Sec. .75 Big gov't .78 Taxes .73 Spending .77 Arms .79 Spending .79 Spending .72 Taxes .77 Taxes .79 Soc. Sec. .79 Women .70 C. Amer. .71 Prayer .75 Taxes .75 Big gov't .70 LWS .75 Prayer .75 Prayer .69 C. Amer. .74 LWS .75 Environ. .69 LWS .68 C. Amer. .72 145 LWS .65 Environ. .67 Soc. Sec. .68 C. Amer. .64 Women .67 Women .65 Environ. .69 Prayer .61 Soc. Sec. .65 Environ. .63 Women .66 Abortion .54 Abortion .56 Abortion .57 Abortion .55 Falwell .43 Falwell .40 Falwell .37 Falwell .38 KEY: Abortion = its general opposition to. .; Spending = its position on government spending; BBA = its position on a balanced budget amendment; Taxes = its opposition to a tax increase to reduce the deficit; Prayer = its support of voluntary school prayer; Environment = its position on. .; C. Amer. = its support of military action to contain communist influence in. ; Women = its position on women's rights; LWS = its opposition to the liberal welfare state; USSR = its tough-minded approach toward the Soviet Union; Big Gov't = its opposition to ; Arms = its position on nuclear arms control; Soc. Sec. = its position on Social GERALD Security; Defense = its position on national defense; Falwell = its connection with R. Jerry Falwell. (a) Results are averages based on 0 = "pushes you away", .5 = "has no effect", FORD 1.0 = "attracts you to". LIBRARA (b) Collapsed: "Strong" + "Weak" + Lean. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH When Congress and the President begin a new year in 1985 what do you think should be their first priority? Party Identification Total Democrats* Republicans Total 100% 100% 100% D Balance budget/Federal budget/Deficit/ National debt/Lower the deficit 33% 33% 39% EC Unemployment/Getting jobs/Create jobs/ Job training 15 17 11 W-P Arms race/Arms control Nuclear freeze 12 16 11 DEF Defense/Defense spending 11 10 14 EC Economy/Get economy back 11 9 12 FP Soviet Union peace talk/ Relations with Russia 8 10 8 T Taxes (unspecified) 7 6 7 FP Foreign affairs/Foreign policies 6 6 6 W Help the poor/Homeless/ Feed the needy 5 6 3 T Lower taxes/Fewer taxes 5 5 4 EL/A Social Security 4 3 4 FP Central America/ Nicaragua/El Salvador/ Latin America 4 5 4 W-P World peace 4 4 4 EL/A Care for elderly/ Senior citizens 2 4 2 A Education 2 2 2 (continued on next page) FORD & GERALD LIBRARY - 146 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH When Congress and the President begin a new year in 1985 what do you think should be their first priority? (cont'd.) Party Identification Total Democrats* Republicans EC Keep inflation down 2% 2% 2% A Social benefits/Social programs/Public programs/Use lottery money for social programs 2 2 1 Clean up United States first/Get United States back on feet 2 2 2 EC Interest rates 2 1 3 T Tax reform 2 2 2 S Welfare/Decrease welfare 1 1 1 S Spending/Cut spending/ Cut government waste in spending/Monitoring government expend- itures 1 1 1 EL/A Medicare 1 1 1 EC Foreign imports/Trade deficit 1 1 1 EN Environmental issue 1 1 * All other miscellaneous responses 2 2 2 Don't know 13 11 12 Refused/No answer * 1 * (continued on next page) - 147 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH When Congress and the President begin a new year in 1985 what do you think should be their first priority? (cont'd.) Party Identification Total Democrats* Republicans Combined Categories Foreign policy/War- peace/Defense (FP/ W-P/DEF) 41% 45% 43% Deficit (D) 34 33 39 Economy (EC) 27 27 26 Foreign policy (FP) 17 20 17 War-Peace (W-P) 16 19 14 Taxes/Spending (T/S) 15 14 16 Taxes (T) 13 13 14 Assistance (A) 11 12 8 Defense (DEF) 11 10 14 Elderly (EL) 7 7 6 Welfare-pro (W) 5 7 3 Big spending (S) 2 2 2 Morality-Individual rights (M-I) 1 * 1 Environment (EN) 1 1 * Abortion (AB) 1 * 1 Crime (C) * 1 * Less than 1% mention: abortion issue, farm issue, work together/agree on something/try to get along/President and Congress get along, raise taxes/raise taxes to reduce the deficit, immigration reform/illegal aliens, work for the people/welfare of the people, crime/stand on crime/ Reagan's crime package, housing/low income housing, prayer in school, pay scales - higher wages/give state people a raise, steel import, get rid of Tip O'Neill/Tip O'Neill out, stop hurting unions/union make America strong, foreign aid, take care of veterans, fraud in government. *Non black. LIBRARY GERALD R. FORD - 148 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of Problems for Government Attention in 1985(a) Democrats* Republicans Elderly 8.6 Defense 8.4 Arms control 8.4 Lower taxes 8.4 Unemployment 8.4 Welfare abuse 8.3 Education 8.3 Deficit 8.2 Environment 8.3 Crime 8.2 Deficit 8.2 Waste 8.1 Crime 8.2 Elderly 8.1 Waste 8.1 Inflation 7.8 Education 7.9 Lower taxes 7.7 Inflation 7.8 Welfare abuse 7.6 Arms control 7.8 Increase welfare 7.4 Unemployment 7.8 Simplify tax 7.4 Environment 7.8 Defense 7.2 Simplify tax 7.7 C. America 7.6 Bal. Budget Bal. Budget Amend. 6.9 Amend. 7.5 C. America 6.3 Prayer 6.4 Prayer 5.3 Increase Welfare 6.2 Abortion 4.4 Abortion 5.4 (a) Results are averages based on a zero-to-ten scale with zero representing lowest priority and ten representing highest priority. *Non black. Key: Inflation = Controlling inflation. Waste = Reducing waste in federal spending. Arms control = Reaching a nuclear arms control agreement. Unemployment = Reducing unemployment. Defense = Maintaining a strong national defense Deficit = Reducing the federal budget deficit. Increase welfare = Increasing assistance to lower income families. Education = Improving the quality of public education. Simplify tax = Simplifying the federal tax system. Environment = Protecting the environment and controlling hazardous waste. Crime = Reducing crime. C. America = Containing communist influence in Central America. Prayer = Allowing prayers in the public schools. Lower taxes = holding down taxes. Bal. Budget Amend = Passing a balanced budget amendment. Abortion = Making most abortions illegal. Welfare abuse = Reducing welfare fraud and abuse. Elderly = Helping the elderly and retired. - 149 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of Problems for Government Attention in 1985(a) Democrats* Republicans 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Education 8.5 Elderly 8.8 Defense 8.3 Waste 8.6 Arms 8.5 Unemployment 8.6 L. Taxes 8.3 L. Taxes 8.6 Elderly 8.4 Deficit 8.4 Deficit 8.1 Abuse 8.6 Environment 8.3 Crime 8.4 Education 8.1 Defense 8.5 Unemployment 8.2 Waste 8.4 Abuse 8.1 Crime 8.5 Deficit 8.1 Arms 8.3 Elderly 8.0 Deficit 8.4 Environment 8.3 Simp Tax 8.1 Crime 7.9 Education 8.2 Crime 7.9 Elderly 8.1 Waste 7.7 L. Taxes 8.1 Inflation 7.8 L. Taxes 7.4 Simp Tax 8.0 Environment 7.8 Inflation 7.9 Abuse 7.3 Waste 7.7 Arms 7.9 Inflation 7.3 Abuse 7.9 Unemployment 7.7 Unemployment 7.9 Welfare 7.3 Inflation 7.9 Arms 7.6 Education 7.8 Defense 7.6 C. America 7.4 Environment 7.8 Simp Tax 6.8 Welfare 7.6 Simp Tax 7.3 C. America 7.8 Defense 6.7 B.B.A. 7.3 B.B.A. 7.3 B.B.A. 7.6 B.B.A. 6.5 C. America 6.7 Welfare 6.3 Prayer 6.9 C. America 5.9 Prayer 6.0 Welfare 6.2 Prayer 5.9 Prayer 4.5 Abortion 5.3 Abortion 5.5 Abortion 4.8 Abortion 3.9 (a) Results are averages based on a zero-to-ten scale with zero repre- senting lowest priority and ten representing highest priority. *Non black. R. FORD GERALD 18-30 LIBRISHA ОЫЙТОЙ TEXAM - 150 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of Problems for Government Attention in 1985 (a) Democrats* Independents* Weak/Leaning Republicans Strong Republicans 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Educat 8.5 Elderly 8.8 Elderly 8.5 Elderly 8.9 L. Taxes 8.3 Waste 8.6 Defense 8.5 Defense 8.8 Arms 8.5 Unempl 8.6 Educat 8.4 Environ 8.5 Defense 8.1 Abuse 8.6 L. Taxes 8.4 L. Taxes 8.8 Elderly 8.4 Deficit 8.4 Environ 8.3 Crime 8.4 Deficit 8.1 Crime 8.5 Abuse 8.2 Waste 8.5 Environ 8.3 Crime 8.4 Unempl 8.3 Deficit 8.4 Educat 8.1 Defense 8.4 Deficit 8.1 Deficit 8.5 Unempl 8.2 Waste 8.4 Crime 8.2 Waste 8.3 Abuse 8.1 L. Taxes 8.4 Educat 8.1 Crime 8.5 Deficit 8.1 Arms 8.3 L. Taxes 8.3 Arms 8.3 Elderly 8.1 Deficit 8.3 Abuse 8.4 Environ 8.3 Abuse 8.1 Defense 8.3 Crime 8.0 Simp Tax 8.0 Crime 7.9 Elderly 8.3 Crime 7.9 Educat 8.2 Educat 8.3 Elderly 8.0 Elderly 7.9 Simp Tax 8.2 Waste 7.7 L. Taxes 8.1 Arms 7.8 Simp Tax 8.3 Waste 7.9 Inflation 7.7 Arms 8.1 151 L. Taxes 7.4 Simp Tax 8.0 Inflation 7.7 L. Taxes 8.3 Environ 7.9 Arms 7.9 Unempl 7.7 C. Amer 8.1 Abuse 7.3 Waste 7.6 Abuse 8.2 Inflation 7.8 Unempl 7.9 Environ 7.7 Inflation 8.0 Inflation 7.3 Abuse 7.9 Defense 7.5 Unempl 8.1 Arms 7.7 Inflation 7.8 C. Amer 7.7 Unempl 8.0 Welfare 7.3 Inflation 7.9 Deficit 7.5 B.B.A. 8.0 Unempl 7.7 Environ 7.8 Waste 7.5 Environ 8.0 Defense 7.6 Simp Tax 7.5 B.B.A. 7.3 Educat 7.7 Arms 7.5 Simp Tax 6.8 Welfare 7.6 Welfare 7.2 Inflation 7.7 Simp Tax 7.2 C. Amer 7.6 Simp Tax 7.5 Educat 7.9 Defense 6.7 B.B.A. 7.3 C. Amer 7.3 C Amer. 7.2 B.B.A. 7.5 B.B.A. 7.4 B.B.A. 7.9 B.B.A. 6.5 B.B.A. 6.9 Welfare 7.1 Prayer 7.3 C. Amer 6.7 C. Amer 6.6 Prayer 7.0 Welfare 6.4 Prayer 6.6 Prayer 6.5 C. Amer 5.9 Prayer 6.1 Welfare 6.0 Welfare 6.5 Prayer 5.9 Prayer 5.8 Welfare 5.9 Prayer 4.5 Abortion 5.1 Abortion 5.1 Abortion 5.4 Abortion 5.7 Abortion 5.7 Abortion 4.8 Abortion 4.6 Abortion 3.9 (a)Results are averages based on a zero-to-ten scale with zero representing lowest priority and ten representing highest priority. *Non black. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of Problems for Government Attention in 1985 (a) (b) Republicans 18-20 21-29 30-39 40+ Crime 8.4 L. Taxes 8.3 Defense 8.5 Waste 8.6 L. Taxes 8.4 Defense 8.1 Deficit 8.5 L. Taxes 8.6 Educat 8.2 Educat 8.1 Abuse 8.4 Abuse 8.6 Elderly 8.1 Abuse 8.1 L. Taxes 8.3 Defense 8.5 Defense 8.0 Elderly 8.1 Waste 8.1 Crime 8.5 Environ 8.0 Educat 8.0 Deficit 8.4 Deficit 7.9 Crime 8.0 Simp Tax 8.1 Inflation 7.9 Crime 7.9 Elderly 8.0 Elderly 8.1 152 Arms 7.8 Environ 7.8 Arms 8.0 Unempl 7.7 Inflation 7.7 Inflation 7.8 Deficit 7.7 Unempl 7.7 Environ 7.8 Inflation 7.9 Abuse 7.6 Waste 7.6 Arms 7.7 Unempl 7.9 C. Amer 7.3 Arms 7.6 Unempl 7.7 Educat 7.8 B.B.A. 7.2 B.B.A. 7.3 Simp Tax 7.6 Environ 7.8 Waste 7.1 Simp Tax 7.2 C. Amer 7.6 C. Amer 7.8 C. Amer 7.2 B.B.A. 7.4 B.B.A. 7.6 Simp Tax 6.9 Welfare 6.8 Welfare 6.4 Prayer 6.0 Prayer 6.9 Prayer 6.2 Welfare 6.2 rue Abortion 5.6 Welfare 5.9 Prayer 5.5 Abortion 5.1 Abortion 5.3 Abortion 5.5 (a) Results are averages based on zero-to-ten scale with zero representing lowest priority and ten representing highest priority. GERALD (b) Collapsed: "Strong" + "Weak" + Lean. R. LIBRARY FORD MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Thinking about government spending, which do you think should be the emphasis for the federal government next year? Democrats* Republicans Total 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Increasing spending on domestic programs such as education and health care in order to help more people. 43% 61% 51% 33% 24% Keeping spending on domestic programs at their present levels in order to move closer to a balanced budget. 51 35 42 63 71 Don't know/Refused 5 4 7 4 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Some people would be willing to pay higher taxes in order for the federal government to expand its programs and services to the people. Others think taxes are high enough and the federal government is receiving enough money to support its programs and services. Which of those two positions do you most agree with? Democrats* Republicans Total 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Willing to pay higher taxes for more services 20% 31% 29% 16% 12% Taxes high enough/has enough money 76 68 66 81 84 Don't know/Refused 4 1 5 3 4 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Would you favor or oppose a tax increase next year as part of an overall program to reduce the federal budget deficit? Democrats* Republicans Total 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Favor 32% 39% 41% 27% 30% Oppose 59 54 49 66 62 Don't know/NA 9 7 10 7 8 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% *Non black. - 153 — MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Thinking about government spending, which do you think should be the emphasis for the federal government next year? Weak/Lean Strong Democrats* Independents* Republicans Republicans Total 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ a. Increasing spending on 43% 61% 51% 53% 37% 35% 22% 28% 27% domestic programs such as education and health care in order to help more people. b. Keeping spending on 51 35 42 38 55 61 72 68 70 domestic programs at their present levels in order to move closer to a balanced budget. Don't know/Refused 5 4 7 10 9 4 6 3 4 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (3002) (444) (506) (147) (129) (497) (412) (233) (250) (a) Republicans Total 18-20 21-29 30-39 40+ a. Increasing spending on 29% 38% 34% 31% 24% domestic programs such as education and health care in order to help more people. b. Keeping spending on 67 60 63 65 71 domestic programs at their present levels in order to move closer to a balanced budget. Don't know/Refused 4 2 3 4 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (1392) (96) (332) (302) (662) R. FORD * Non-black GERALD (a) LIBRISHA Collapsed: Strong + Weak + Lean 154 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH In general, do you think the federal income tax is fair or not fair to the average citizen? June 1984 Fair 32% Not fair 64 Don't know/NA 4 100% Here are some proposals for changing the federal tax system in this country. For each one please tell me if you think the change is greatly needed, somewhat needed or not needed. November 1984 Don't Greatly Somewhat Not Know/ Needed Needed Needed Refused Eliminating loopholes 66% 21% 7% 6% Increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy people 62 20 13 5 Reducing taxes on middle income families 57 27 12 5 Simplifying the tax form 53 28 15 5 Changing from a graduated income tax to a single, flat tax rate for everyone 35 21 31 13 Would you favor or oppose a tax increase next year as part of an overall program to reduce the federal budget deficit? November 1984 Favor 32% Oppose 59 Don't know/NA 9 100% - 155 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Now I'd like to read to you one proposal that has been made and tell me whether you would favor or oppose changing our present income tax system in this way. Under this proposed system, a family of four with less than $11,000 income would pay no federal income taxes. A family of four with an income between $11,000 and $40,000 would pay 20% of their income in taxes, and a family with an income of more than $40,000 would pay 25% of their income in taxes. At the same time, all the deductions except home mortgage interest, medical expenses and charitable contributions would be eliminated. Would you favor or oppose changing our present tax system to this plan? Inde- Weak/Lean Strong Democrats* pendents* Republicans Republicans Total 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Favor 47% 46% 52% 36% 47% 48% 45% 47% 48% Oppose 38 40 33 43 35 41 39 44 32 Don't know/ Refused 15 14 15 21 18 11 16 9 20 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (3002) (444) (506) (147) (129) (497) (412) (233) (250) (a) Republicans Total 18-20 21-29 30-39 40+ Favor 47% 50% 47% 48% 46% Oppose 40 40 43 42 37 Don't know/Refused 13 10 11 11 18 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (1392) ( 96) (332) (302) (662) *Non-black. (a) Collapsed: Strong + Weak + Lean. R. GERALD FORD - 156 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you agree or disagree that a woman should have the legal right to an abortion if she wants one? Democrats* Republicans Total 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Strongly agree 47% 59% 52% 40% 39% Somewhat agree 15 16 14 19 14 Neither/depends (Vol.) 7 4 6 7 10 Somewhat disagree 5 5 5 6 5 Strongly disagree 21 13 19 25 27 Don't know/Refused 5 2 5 1 3 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% *Non black. GROF - 157 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you agree or disagree that a woman should have the legal right to an abortion if she wants one? Inde- Weak/Lean Strong Democrats* pendents* Republicans Republicans Total 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Strongly agree 47% 59% 52% 49% 48% 42% 41% 37% 36% Somewhat agree 15 16 14 13 9 19 13 16 14 Neither/Depends (volunteered) 7 4 6 12 10 6 10 11 11 Somewhat disagree 5 5 5 4 6 7 5 5 5 Strongly disagree 21 13 19 18 20 23 25 30 29 Don't know/ Refused 5 2 5 5 7 3 5 2 6 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (3002) (444) (506) (147) (129) (497) (412) (233) (250) (a) Republicans Total 18-20 21-29 30-39 40+ Strongly agree 40% 39% 43% 39% 39% Somewhat agree 16 15 19 19 14 Neither/Depends (volunteered) 9 3 8 8 10 Somewhat disagree 6 7 7 5 5 Strongly disagree 26 34 22 25 27 Don't know/Refused 4 1 2 4 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of Cases (1392) ( 96) (332) (302) (662) *Non-black. (a)Collapsed: Strong + Weak + Lean. R. GERALD FORM LISAAST - 158 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting Presidential Vote (Full Ticket) Nov. (Post) October September July/August 1984 1984 1984 1984 Party identification .57 .60 .61 .66 Future economy .27 .12 .08 .06 Present economy .15 .21 .19 .17 R²= = .67 .57 .53 .58 Party identification .53 .53 .57 .63 Future economy .25 .11 .07 .05 Family finances .16 .21 .16 .11 Present economy .10 .15 .14 .14 R²= = .69 .60 .55 .58 Reagan thermometer .39 .35 .43 .39 Party identification .28 .29 .34 .35 Mondale thermometer -.24 -.18 .17 .16 Bush thermometer .09 .05 .07 X Ferraro thermometer -.07 -.13 .09 .08 R²= = .80 .69 .67 .69 X = not significant. R. GERALD FORD LIBERTY - 159 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting Congressional and Presidential Votes Congressional Presidential Party identification .54 .55 Track - nation .12 .26 Family finances .08 .09 Local progress .06 .12 R2 = .46 R² = = .68 Party identification .32 Track - nation .07 Family finances .06 Local progress X Rep./Dem. candidate .49 R2 = .63 TRANSIT CEBYTS - 160 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting Congressional Vote Recontacted Congressional Districts U.S. National AZ5 In8 MD2 MI10 M02 M09 NC4 OK1 PA7 TX13 CFD* .470 .48 .44 .73 .59 .585 .64 .59 .65 .50 .58 Party identification .220 NC .20 NC .13 .285 .17 NC NC .14 NC Presidential vote .185 .24 .29 .20 .17 X X .158 X X .29 Party confidence .061 .21 X X X X X .190 .24 .18 X Direction of country X X X X X X .09 X X X X R 2 = .64 .68 .61 .69 .56 .58 .55 .67 .64 .49 .56 U.S. Nationals Nov. Post Oct. 1984 1984 CFD* .48 .15 Party identification .25 .44 Party issue confidence .11 .30 Reagan's approval .09 .06 R 2 = .63 .61 * Candidate Favorability Differential X=Not significant at 95% confidence level. NC=Cannot be calculated for non-MOR districts (no party id question) R. GERALD FORD LIBRARY - 161 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting House Vote (a) Nov. Post October September July/August 1984 1984 1984 1984 Party identification .56 .65 .68 .70 Future economy .13 .09 X .05 Present economy .08 .13 .09 .10 R²= = .45 .56 .53 .57 Party identification .53 .62 .65 .67 Future economy .12 .09 X .04 Family finances .11 .09 .11 .09 Present economy .05 .10 .06 .08 R²= = .46 .56 .54 .58 Party identification .55 .52 .58 Reagan's approval NA .20 .28 .23 Local incumbent index .16 .12 .09 R²= = .58 .59 .60 Republican candidate .32 .07 Democratic candidate -.33 .14 Party identification .30 .57 Reagan's approval .12 .19 NA NA R²= = .65 .58 Rep./Dem. candidate (CFD) .48 .15 Party identification .25 .44 Party issue confidence .11 .30 Reagan's approval .09 .06 NA NA R²= .63 .61 X = not significant. (a) Reagan's approval, CFD, party issue confidence, and Republican and Democrat favorability indices are based on a 0-to-100 metric for November, 1984. - 162 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting House Vote (a) 1983-1984 Election Cycle Nov. July/ Feb./ (Post) Oct. Sept. Aug. June March Nov. June March 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 1983 1983 1983 Party identification .56 .65 .68 .70 .72 Future economy .13 .09 X .05 NA .07 NA NA NA Present economy .08 .13 .09 .10 .07 R²= .45 .56 .53 .57 .58 Party identification .49 .59 .55 .59 .62 .67 .68 .62 Reagan's approval .22 .16 .28 .22 NA .21 .17 .19 .22 PRESENT ECONOMY .05 .10 X .05 X X X .06 R²= = .46 .56 .57 .59 .60 .60 .63 .63 Party identification .49 .59 .55 .59 .62 .67 .68 .62 Reagan's approval .20 .18 .29 .23 NA .21 .17 .19 .24 FUTURE ECONOMY .08 .08 X X .04 X X X R²= .47 .56 .57 .59 .60 .60 .63 .63 Party identification X X X .57 .62 .61 .64 .67 .61 Overall Reagan approval X X X .13 .17 .13 .09 .14 .16 Reagan economic approval X X X .10 X .08 .08 X .11 Reagan foreign policy approval X X X .07 X .06 .06 .06 X R²= = .60 .55 .60 .60 .63 .63 Party identification .55 .52 .58 .60 .65 Reagan's approval NA .20 .28 .23 NA .21 .17 NA NA Local incumbent index .16 .12 .09 (a) Results are betas which vary between zero and one depending on the strength of the relationship. X = not significant. NA = not calculated. One or more questions not asked. R. GERALD LIBRARY - 163 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting House Vote 1981-1982 Election Cycle (b) (b) Feb./ Nov. Oct. Sept. July May March March 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1981 Party identification .53 .56 .67 .59 .55 .63 .59 Reagan's approval .20 .20 .16 .23 .25 .22 .22 PRESENT ECONOMY .08 .10 X X X .04 .05 R²= .50 .55 .59 .59 .56 .64 .52 Party identification .54 .57 .67 .60 .55 .64 .59 Reagan's approval .24 .23 .15 .23 .24 .20 .20 FUTURE ECONOMY X X .06 X .06 X .09 R²= .49 .54 .59 .59 .56 .64 .52 Party identification .64 .65 .60 .59 Overall Reagan approval .07 .17 NA .15 .16 Reagan economic approval NA NA .17* .14* .08 .10 Reagan foreign policy approval X X .06 X R²= .60 .60 .65 .52 Party identification Reagan's approval NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Local incumbent index R²= (a) Results are betas which vary between zero and one depending on the strength of the relationship. (b) Voting intention late in interview, others are early in the inter- view. *Uses "right direction/wrong track" question on the "national economy" II and "foreign policy" rather than the "approve/disapprove" question which was not asked in July, 1982. X = not significant. NA = not calculated. One or more questions not asked. - 164 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Relationships of Attitudes About the Republican Party With Presiden- tial Vote and Party Identification (a) Party Presidential Congressional Identi- Vote Vote fication Agree/Disagree w/Rep Party on: Defense .299 .119 .122 Gov't spending .140 .120 .159 Social Security .135 .085 .117 USSR .124 .057 .097 Taxes .090 X .071 Liberal Welfare State .076 .088 .058 Women's rights .071 .069 X Nuclear arms control .062 .068 .109 Balanced Budget Amendment .061 .072 .069 Big gov't .061 .080 .078 Abortion .051 X .037 Central America .040 .065 X Falwell .037 .046 .031 Prayer X X X Environment X X X 2 R .58 .31 .38 X=not significant at 95% confidence level. (a) Results are betas which vary between zero and one depending on the strength of the relationship. R. GERALD FORD LIBRARY - 165 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting Right Direction/Wrong Track Perception July/ Nov. (Post) October September August March 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 Future economy .26 .16 .13 .12 .12 Party identification .24 .34 .35 .25 .23 Present economy .24 .27 .28 .27 .33 R²= .34 .35 .34 .23 .25 Family finances .26 .23 .20 .15 .22 Future economy .23 .15 .11 .11 .11 Party identification .18 .27 .30 .21 .19 Present economy .17 .20 .21 .23 .27 R²= .39 .38 .37 .25 .29 - 166 - MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Attitudes Predicting Reagan Job Performance Perceptions July/ Nov. (Post) October September August March 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984 Party identification .41 .50 .46 .52 .47 Future economy .30 .17 .16 .09 .17 Present economy .22 .26 .25 .25 .25 R²= = .56 .53 .45 .48 .43 Party identification .37 .42 .41 .48 .44 Future economy .28 .16 .15 .08 .16 Family finances .18 .24 .19 .17 .16 Present economy .17 .19 .19 .20 .20 R²= = .59 .57 .48 .50 .45 Party identification X X X .19 .18 Reagan economic approval X X X .52 .50 Reagan foreign policy approval X X X .28 .29 R²= = .71 .67 X = not asked. R. FORD GERALD LIBRARY - 167 - R. GERALD FORD