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Transition Reports (1977) - Commerce Department: Management by Objectives and Presidential Management Initiatives (4)
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7774073
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Transition Reports (1977) - Commerce Department: Management by Objectives and Presidential Management Initiatives (4)
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John O. Marsh Files (Ford Administration)
John Marsh's General Subject Files
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The original documents are located in Box 35, folder "Transition Reports (1977) - Commerce Department: Management by Objectives and Presidential Management Initiatives (4)" of the John Marsh Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald R. Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Digitized from Box 35 of the John Marsh Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BRIEFING HANDBOOK DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE * * UNITED STATES OF AMERICA MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVES AND PRESIDENTIAL MANAGEMENT INITIATIVES BOOK II OF 2 FISCAL 1977 UNITED STATES TRAVEL SERVICE OBJECTIVES General. USTS proposed two fiscal 1977 objectives, both follow-ons to its 1976 objectives. Promotion of travel to the U.S. 1977 Domestic tourism promotion program These objectives encompass USTS's entire program. Promotion of Travel to the U.S. This objective deals with USTS's central mission and covers 90 percent of its resources. It is expected to result in 600,000 visitor arrivals and $293 million in foreign exchange earnings. This will be accomplished by the following: Exchange Earnings Arrivals (in millions) Tour Development 576,200 $285.5 Convention Program 11,800 4.1 Incentive Travel 12,000 3.6 All of these arrivals and earnings result from specific USTS program actions. USTS cannot say, however, that none would have occurred without these actions. Total visitor arrivals to the U.S. typically run around 14 million annually. Domestic Tourism. This is not a Commerce-suggested program, but resulted from a Senate add-on to the 1976 budget. The intent was to key efforts to the upcoming Bicentennial celebration. USTS developed a 1976 objective involving program consisting of advertising, media services, tourism information, and research on American travel behavior. For fiscal 1977, USTS has developed a substantially different proposal for selling American citizens on traveling in their own country. This proposal relies on financial and staff assistance from the private sector to develop a program of advertising and related material, and to place this advertising in the appropriate media. 2 USTS is approaching a large number of corporations involved with the travel industry, (for example, American Express, and various airlines) which will provide the bulk of the budget for the effort. On October 4th Secretary Richardson met with travel industry leaders to start the program off. November 1976 UNITED STATES TRAVEL SERVICE Promotion of Travel to the United States 1. Proposed Objective. The objective of USTS' FY 1977 International Marketing Program is to identify in FY 1977 600,000 visitors and $293 million in foreign exchange earnings as being related to USTS direct impact programs consisting of; Tour Development, Convention Travel and Incentive Travel. In the first nine months of CY 1976, USTS' objective was to identify 385,000 visitors and $200 million in foreign exchange earnings related to our direct impact programs. As of June 30, USTS has, through our measurement system, identified arrivals and earnings related to these programs as follows: Arrivals Earnings Tour Development 338,000 $172,000,000 Convention Sales 7,950 2,944,000 Incentive Travel 6,104 3,400,000 Total 352,054 $178,344,000 2. Justification All USTS programs which make up our total marketing plan are aimed at increasing tourism to the United States which contributes to the economic growth of the total travel industry. This in turn contributes to the tax base and revenue at both the Federal, State, and city levels. In addition, our programs also help in keeping more people employed within the industry by assisting and supporting travel to the United States versus other international vacation destinations. 3. Approach USTS has identified programs which have both a direct impact and support active effect within an overall marketing plan aimed at promoting travel to the United States. This marketing plan is measured and evaluated during the period of its implementation USTS has been measuring and evaluating program activities re- lated to overall program objectives since 1973. Therefore a base has been established which allows our management group to evaluate, improve and establish realistic objectives which we feel can be achieved during a given period. At the end of each calendar year, (fiscal year starting in 1977) the results of all program activities are reported to USTS management personnel for evaluation and discussion in order to set forth priorities for the following year in order to achieve program objectives. 4. Resources For FY 1977, the breakdown of resources to achieve program objectives is as follows: Perm. Pos. Amount *Promotion of travel to the United States 131 $12,970,000 It should be noted that consideration is now being given to a proposed rescission in FY 1977, which will affect our resources. The rescission is as follows: Present Effect of Revised Estimate Proposed Estimate Rescission Perm. Perm. Pos. Amount Pos. Amount Pos. Amount *Promotion of travel to 131 $12,970,000 -3 $-500,000 128 $12,470,000 the United States 5. Responsible Office Office of Marketing and Field Operations Mr. William Tolson, Acting Director Ext. 377-3833 6. Milestones (Attached) Promotion of Trave the United States Objective Change in Status The objective of USTS' FY 1977 International Marketing Program is to identify in FY 1977, 600,000 visitors and $293 million in foreign exchange earnings as being related to USTS direct impact programs consisting of; Tour Development, Convention Travel and Incentive Travel. Milestones Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Tour Development FY 1977 (1) Select specific itineraries, destinations, program objectives and other contractual terms permitting completion of 146 contract/letters of agreements. (2) Complete 146 contracts and letters of agreements with tour wholesalers. (3) Report final results of FY 1976 tour development program. FY 1978 (4) Report final results for FY 1977 tour development program estimated to produce $285.5 million in foreign exchange earnings. FORM SEC-904 2-761 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Milestones Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Convention Program FY 1977 (5) Establish monthly contact with approximately 25 association headquarters to ascertain existence of U.S. affiliate in order to determine U.S. affiliates' interest in inviting the International Association to hold a Congress in the United States. (6) Issue final report on convention committed during prior years that were held in the U.S. in CY 1976 expected to be 18 conventions with 10,000 delegates producing $4 million in tourism revenue. FY 1978 (7) Issue final report on conventions committed during prior years to be held in the United States in FY 1977 which is estimated to produce 11,800 delegates and $4.1 million in foreign exchange earnings. Milestones Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Incentive Travel Program FY 1977 (8) Issue final results on incentive travel programs for CY 1976 expected to produce 5,000 visitors and $3 million in tourism revenue. (9) Identify 30 tour operators in six USTS markets and other selected world markets specializing in incentive travel and work with them to establish incentive programs to the United States. FY 1978 (10) Issue final report on incentive travel programs for FY 1977 expected to produce 12,000 visitors and $3.6 million in tourism revenue. 1977 DOMESTIC TOURISM PROMOTION PROGRAM 1. Proposed Objective In FY 1977, USTS will utilize its resources to develop a domestic tourism promotion program involving major travel industry corporations and organizations. Through this joint sponsorship, USTS and the industry expect to develop a promotional marketing plan designed to reach at least 100 million traveling adults in order to encourage them to travel within the United States. 2. Justification At the present time, no catalyst exists, with sufficient high visibility, to promote travel within the United States while informing the traveling public of national interest issues related to travel like conservation of energy, environmental protection and the beneficial aspect of tourism to our culture and the economy. This proposed promotion marketing plan will be designed to address these needs through the cooperative efforts of Government and industry. 3. Approach USTS and the Secretary of Commerce will meet with forty leaders of the travel industry in order to outline the domestic tourism promotional program. USTS will then seek industry support in developing, sponsoring and financing a joint promotional marketing plan which will be put into effect during FY 1977. The results of this plan will be measured and evaluated by both the Government and industry sponsors in order to determine its overall effectiveness in informing the traveling public that travel within the United States can be enjoyable, economical, and can be accomplished without compromising the national interests. 4. Resources For FY 1977, the breakdown of resources to achieve program objectives is as follows: Perm. Pos. Amount Domestic Tourism Program 10 $1,500,000 - 2 - It should be noted that consideration is now being given by the Administration to a proposed rescission which will affect this program. The rescission is as follows: Present Effect of Proposed Revised Estimates Rescission Estimates Perm. Perm. Perm. Pos. Amount Pos. Amount Pos. Amount Domestic Tourism 10 $1,500,000 -4 -$500,000 6 $1,000,000 Program 5. Responsible Office Office of Program Services and Development Hans F. Regh, Managing Director Tel: 377-4904 6. Milestones (Attached) 1977 Domestic Tourism Promotion Program Objective Change in Status To develop a domestic tourism program through joint cooperation and sponsorship of the Government, travel industry and tourism organizations consisting of a promotional marketing plan aimed at 100 million traveling adults in order to increase travel within the United States. Milestones Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep FY 1977 (1) Secretary to meet with 40 leaders of the travel industry to seek support of the Domestic Tourism Program. (2) Identify and solicit manpower and financial support of 20 major travel related corporations and organizations. (3) Form a working management team consisting of industry and Government personnel to develop a promotional marketing plan to reach USTS objectives. (4) Develop a measurement system to evaluate the effectiveness of the promotional marketing plan. (5) Implementation of Promotional Marketing Plan. FY 1978 (6) Report results of promotional Marketing Plan efforts in order to determine number of traveling adults reached through this promotional program. FORM SEC-904 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 12-75) EDA FISCAL 1977 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION OBJECTIVES General. The Economic Development Administration proposed three objectives for fiscal 1977. Two deal with the establishment of management systems in two program areas, and one is concerned with the implementation of a major new program authority (Local Public Works) involving some 85% of EDA's resources. None are follow-on 1976 objectives. Technical Assistant Evaluation: The objective is the design and implementation of a management system to insure that the Technical Assistance (TA) program relates to other EDA efforts, and agency investment strategies and objectives. From an evaluation of the various TA project types, the program managers will identify those that are most effective. Future program priorities and resource allocations will be based on the results of the evaluation. Because TA has been criticized in the past for lack of a systematic approach to establishing program priorities and because this represents a major management initiative for the TA program, Secretarial tracking is recommended. Economic Research Impact Review: Under this objective, EDA will establish a management process to identify the policy/ operational implications of EDA's economic research and to incorporate appropriate findings into program policy. EDA's economic research efforts have been critized in the past (by OMB and others) as being largely irrelevant to the program needs of the agency. It was requested that EDA develop a system whereby research could be responsive to and provide information for the other EDA program areas. This objective is directly responsive to that Office of the Secretary request. Secretarial tracking is recommended. Implementation of the Local Public Works (LPW) Program: EDA's objective is to insure that appropriate management systems, guidelines, and resources are available for the orderly and effective administration of this major new program responsibility. Given the high level of funding and Secretarial interest in the program to date, an objective which follows the implementation of LPW is appropriate for Secretarial tracking. October 1976 EDA'S TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE EVALUATION Proposed Objective: Design/implement a management system to insure the effectiveness of the Technical Assistance program in relation to EDA programs, investment strategies and agency objectives. This includes a major effort to measure: Jobs created or saved, the amount of investment, and the time frame of program results. Justification: Currently the TA program does not maintain a systematic management approach to determine (a) the extent to which recipients utilize Technical Assistance, or (b) the impact of the Technical Assistance rendered. The need for systematic follow up of Technical Assistance projects is an important element in responding to inquiries received from the Department, OMB and Congressional Committees as to program results. Evaluation of program projects will permit management to: compare the effectiveness of various TA projects. ensure that ineffective or marginal projects are identified, eliminated or reduced. determine future TA program priorities, strategies and objectives. Approach: A test evaluation of a proposed follow-up system is currently being conducted. Data is being requested from approximately 600 recipients of EDA Technical Assistance. This group of addressees received Technical Assistance during Fiscal Years 1970, 1971, 1972, and 1973. Telephone calls will be made, as necessary, to addressees to achieve maximum response rate and to verify data sent back. When sufficient data has been collected, it will be tabulated, analyzed and a report will be prepared. Following completion of the evaluation the Office of Technical Assistance will implement a systematic follow-up to provide the framework for determining future program policies and objectives. Resources: It is estimated that 1 professional manyear and 3 Terical manmonths will be required annually for this effort. OTA cont. Responsible Office: The Office immediately charged with line responsibility for this effort is the EDA Office of Technical Assistance, I. M. Baill, Director, under the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Development Operations, William Henkel, Jr. Page 1 of 2 Objective - EDA's TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE EVALUATION Change in Status Design/implement a management system to insure the effectiveness of the Technical Assistance program in relation to EDA programs, investiment strategies and agency objectives. This includes a major effort to measure: Jobs created or saved, the amount of investment, and the time frame of program results. 1976 1976 1977 1977 Milestones JUL AUGSEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 1. OMB Clearance/Approval of grantee questionnaire 2. OTA distribute questionnaire to selected grantees 3. OTA verify grantee responses O 4. OTA initiate analysis of data 5. OTA submit interim report of funding o 6. OTA, based on comments on interim report, completes report. 7. OTA issue final report a 8. OTA prepare objectives/policy for FY 79 PREVIEW ESTIMATES based on final report recommendations o 9. OTA implement approved evaluation system o Milestones continued on next page. Page 2 of 2 EDA's Technical Assistance Evaluation (Cont.) 1977 Milestones JUL AUG SEP 10. OTA recommend program policy and objectives for FY 78 appropriation based on final report O ECONOMIC RESEARCH IMPACT REVIEW Proposed Objective: Establish a management process to identify policy/ operational implications of EDA's economic research and incorporate appropriate findings into Agency Program policy. Justification: EDA has supported a number of highly useful research projects dealing with many aspects of sub-national economic development. Often this research has formulated policy and operational choices that should be considered by EDA management but, due to the lack of formal mechanisms, do not receive adequate attention and consideration by senior policy makers. The purpose of this effort would be to correct this deficiency and insure regular review of policy and operational alternatives that arise from EDA research. Approach: The strategy to be used in achieving this objective is to create a Research Review Board composed of senior policy personnel of the Agency and involving senior operational staff at both the Washington and Regional Office levels. Under the guidance of this Board, there will be at least quarterly briefings and discussions of policy and operational alternatives that arise from EDA research. Resources: No additional resources required. Responsible Office: The Office immediately charged with line responsibility for this effort is the EDA Office of Economic Research, Pat Choate, Director, under the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Development Planning, Joseph G. Hamrick. Page 1 of 2 Objective - ECONOMIC RESEARCH IMPACT REVIEW Change in Status Establish a management process to identify policy/operational impli- cations of EDA's economic research and incorporate appropriate findings into Agency program policy. 1976 1976 1977 1977 Milestones JUL AUGSEP OCT NOV DECUAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 1. OER prepare Directive establishing Research Review Board (RRB) o 2. EDA clear/approve Directive @ 3. OER present proposed FY 1977 research program to RRB o O 4. RRB approve the overall FY 1977 research program O 5. RRB identify a portion of the FY 77 Research program to be incorporated into the policy and objectives of a specific program area (i.e. 304, Title II etc.) for FY-78 O 6. OER prepare work plan to include contracting schedule, and project target date, etc. O 7. OER brief executive staff on the possible policy and operational implications of selected EDA research for FY 77 O B. Progress Report of the FY 1977 research program O Milestones continued on next page. Page 2 of 2 Economic Research Impact Review (Cont.) 1977 1977 1977 1978 Milestones APRMAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT. NOV DEC OCT NOV DEC 9. OER prepare objective/policy for FY 79 PREVIEW o ESTIMATES based on available data. 10. OER identify policy and operational impli- cations of selected EDA research to be considered for FY 78 appropriations 11. OER develops policy and objective alternatives, based on research findings, for specific program area (See Milestone 5) 12. Program area, in conjunction with OER recommen- dations, develops FY 78 program strategies. o 13. OER present proposed FY 78 research program to RRB O 14. RRB approve the overall FY 1978 research program 15. OER in conjunction with appropriate EDA offices, evaluate impact of FY 77 research program on program area (See Milestones 5 and 12) IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LOCAL PUBLIC WORKS (LPW) ACT Proposed Objective: To insure that appropriate management systems, guidelines and resources are available to conduct an orderly and effective administration of the LPW program. Justification: The LPW program may involve upwards of $2 billion. The administration of a program of this magnitude will require specific rules and regulations, guidelines, procedures, personnel resources and management control to insure appropriate administration of the program. Approach: While some ad hoc task forces will be established for specific purposes (e.g., prepare procedures, develop application forms, etc), the program will be primarily administered within the existing organization structure of EDA. Resources: An estimated 325 additional employees will be required early in the FY, with this number tapering off sometime after March 1977 to a base number (yet to be determined). This base number will be required into FY 78 for project monitoring. Funds, not to exceed $10 million, are expected to be available for administrative expenses during FY 77. Responsible Office: The Office immediately charged with line responsibility for this effort is the EDA Office of Public Works, George Karras, Director, under the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Development Operations, William Henkel, Jr. Page 1 of 3 Objective - IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LOCAL PUBLIC WORKS (LPW) ACT Change in Status To insure that appropriate management systems, guidelines and resources are available to conduct an orderly and effective administration of the LPW program. 1976 1976 1977 1977 Milestones JUL AUG SEPOCT NOV DECJAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUN 1. Congress authorizes LPW program 2. Secretary delegates authority to EDA to adminis- ter LPW program 3. EDA publish LPW program rules and regulations 4. EDA publish LPW program guidelines 5. OMB approve EDA's LPW application form- 6. EDA distribute LPW application forms to Regional Offices (60,000 copies) 7. EDA prepare and distribute LPW processing procedures 8. EDA identify personnel resources required for LPW and prepare hiring and phase down plan 9. EDA determine scope of administrative support required for LPW program (space, equipment, furniture) Milestones continued on next page. Page 2 of 3 Implementation of the Local Public Works (LPW) Act (Cont.) 1976 1976 1977 1977 Milestones JUL AUG SEPOCT NOV DECJAN FEB MARAPR MAR JUN 10. Congress appropriates LPW program funds o 11. OMB apportions LPW program funds O 12. EDA begins hiring additional employees for. LPW program 13. EDA accepts LPW applications 14. EDA obtains space, furniture and equipment for LPW employees. 15. EDA completes hiring of LPW employees O 16. Assistant Secretary begins approval of applications O 17. EDA completes space, equipment and furniture evaluation needs for LPW in light of personnel phase down O 18. EDA begins phase down of LPW employees b 19. EDA begins to terminate contracts for space, equipment and furniture rentals in accordance with LPW personnel phase down plans (See Milestones 8 and 17) O 20. EDA accelerates phase down of LPW employees o Milestones continued on next page. Page 3 of 3 Implementation of the Local Public Works (LPW) Act (Cont.) 1977 1977 Milestones JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 21. EDA completes LPW employee phase down (approximately 100 employees retained for servicing/monitoring) o 22. EDA completes termination of appropriate contracts for space, equipment and furniture rentals o FISCAL 1977 MARITIME ADMINISTRATION OBJECTIVES General. MARAD proposed five fiscal 1977 objectives, all but one (the last one listed) being carry-ons from the 1976 MBO program. Operating differential subsidy Ship construction US/USSR Maritime Agreement Equal opportunity in maritime industries Ready reserve fleet plan These objectives account for about 92% of MARAD's total program. Operating Differential Subsidy: This objective aims at the reduction of the cost of the operating differential subsidies through review of possible changes in the ODS system (principally the essential trade route concept) and the elimination of maintenance and repair coverage from ODS contracts. A study of the ODS program to identify more effective use of ODS funds without adversely U.S. merchant fleet capacity to meet commercial and national security needs will be completed in February. Maintenance and repair coverage provisions are being deleted from the twenty-year ODS contracts as they are being renewed. Ship Construction Program: This objective is designed to continue the ship construction program initiated by the Merchant Marine Act of 1970. Because CDS plications generally reflect market forces not controlled by MARAD, however, MARAD inducements in this area are limited to leverage provided by ODS funds and obligations, and financial incentives allowed by legislation. U.S./U.S.S.R. Maritime Agreement: The purpose of this objective is to renegotiate new shipping rates for the U.S./U.S.S.R. Maritime Agreement and to monitor performance against the Agreement. The current charter rate for grain cargoes expires on December 31, 1976 and there are issues with respect to * Construction Differential Subsidy 2 compliance with the 1975 agreement that must be resolved before a new agreement can be signed. Equal Opportunity in Maritime Industries: The purpose of this objective is to achieve full minority and female participation in the maritime industries' workforce and to promote the development of related minority business enterprises by enforcing equal opportunity compliance procedures and promoting the greater use of minority business in maritime contracting. Ready Reserve Fleet Plan: This objective is designed to provide a significant number of ships in the National Defense Reserve Fleet in an advanced state of readiness (five to ten days). The Navy (DOD) will fund the preactivation shipyard work for five ships per year (for up to six years), while MARAD will provide the supervision, inspection and maintenance of the ships with this readiness capacity in the Reserve Fleet. November 1976 Oreratins-differential Subsidy 1. Proposed Objective This objective aims at the reduction of the cost e: Operating- differential subsidies through review of possible changes in the ODS system (principally the essential trade route concept) and elimination of zaintenance and repair coverage from ODS contracts. Although the specific milestones invclved are scheduled to be completed by July 1977, reduction of CDS costs is a continuing objective of MarAd. 2. Justification Operating-differential subsidy (ODS) is one of the key programs under the Merchant Marine Act. It provides for the payment of DDS to qualified U.S.-flag shipping companies for the operation of ships in essential services in the foreign commerce of the United States. In general, this program has been needed in order to equalize the disparities in operating costs between American ships and their foreign competitors. These disparities have been primarily in wages of officers and crews, insurance, and maintenance and repairs not compensated by insurance. In order to carry out this program, the Maritime Subsidy Board, as the representa- tive of the Secretary of Commerce, is authorized to enter into ODS contracts for either liner or bulk carrier operations for a term up to 20 years. In recent years, overall CDS program costs are increasing and are projected to increase further due to inflation. Ihe purpose of our objective in the ODS area is to reduce the COST of the ODS program. 3. Approach A Department of Commerce audit report of May 1976 recommended that MarAd document essential trade route and service criteria. The Office of Audits suggested consideration of the following: "Developing guides for use in determining when the amount and value of cargo carried over certain routes is sufficient to warrant designation as an essential trade route. "Including, in the essential service criteria, consideration of such factors as availability of cargo, extent of vessel utilization, and degree of U.S.-flag participation considered attainable and any other matters deemed pertinest. "Insuring that the procedures include provision for adequately documenting the files to clearly show the principal considera- tions and issues involved in the evaluation process. 2 We agree with the Office of Audits that it would be desirable and useful to prepare a formal description of the criteria and procedures used for (1) determining the essentiality of a United States foreign trade route, and (2) determining the requirements for U.S.-flag service on the route. We are, therefore, preparing such documentation. MarAd has begun a study of the ODS system. This study will involve reexamination of the concept to determine whether it realistically promotes the interests of the United States and the operators of the U.S. merchant fleet. The overall study will include an assessment of fleet productivity in relation to subsidy expenditures, an evaluation of the relationship of ODS to management decisions, and consideration of modifications to the current system. Special emphasis will be placed on an examination of potential benefits which might result from greater flexibility in the essential trade route concept. In the area of the elimination of maintenance and repair subsidy, MarAd policy concerning subsidies for maintenance and repairs (M&R) has been to eliminate this expense from recent renewals of long-term Operating- differential subsidy contracts. The goal for June 1977 is to eliminate M&R subsidy from all contracts signed by that date. The following contracts are those likely to be renewed by that date: - American President Lines' long-term contract (in part) expires in December 1976. This involves 14 ships. - States and Prudential long-term agreements expire in December 1977. These contracts involve 29 ships. - Lykes Bros. contract involving 41 ships expires December 1977. - Waterman new long-term agreement: Application for service on TR 12 and 22 has been approved, contract to be signed shortly. Application for service on TR 21 is pending. 4. Resources The ODS studies are projected to require 302 man-years and $40,000. It is not possible to estimate the resources involved in eliminating M&R coverage from ODS contracts being renewed, because it is part of the entire ODS renewal process. (However, M&R represents about 4.8 percent of ODS costs estimated for FY 1977.) 3 5. Responsible Office (a) Office Responsible for Administration of ODS Program: Assistant Administrator for Maritime Aids Mr. Roy E. Yowell (b) Office Responsible for Evaluation: Assistant Administrator for Policy and Administration Mr. Russell F. Stryker 6. Milestones (a) Document criteria and procedures currently Original: used in the establishment of essential October 1976 trade routes and services of U.S. foreign Revised: commerce. November 1976 (b) Conduct 2 study of the CDS Frogram to identify feasible changes which might bring about the most realistic premotion of the interests of the United States and the operators of the U.S. merchant fleet. February 1977 (c) Eliminate maintenance and repair coverage from ODS contracts being renewed. June 1977 (d) Reduce the gap between the calculation of tentative CD3 rates and the development of final CDS rates in order to complete final settlement of subsidy and permit operator to submit bill and receive payment. September 1977 era 3-D ref S 1dy Objective Change in Status Reduction of the cost of Operating-differential subsidies through>review of possible changes in the QDS system and elimination of maintenance and repair On schedule exept for one coverage from ODS contracts. slight variance. Milestones Oct. llov Dec Jun Feb Mar ,Ifil" May Jun Jul An: (a) Document criterin and procedures currently used in the establishment or essential trade routes and services of U.S. foreign commerce. o ,0 (1) Conduct 11 study of the 003 Program to Identify feasible changes which might bring about the most realistic promotion of the interests of the United States and the operators of the U.S. merchant fleet. o (c) Eliminate mulntenande una repuir coverage from ODS contracts being renewed. 0 (d) Reduce the rap between the calculation of tentative ODS rates and the development of final ODS rates in order to complete final settlement of subsidy and permit operator to submit bill and receive payment. FORM SEC-904 MBO TYPING FORMAT MARITIME ADMINISTRATION OPERATING-DIFFERENTIAL SUBSIDIES Extension of ODS Contracts Renewal of ODS agreements for new 20-year agreements have been signed by the following companies: Moore-McCormack Lines, Inc. - effective through December 31, 1994 Delta Steamship Lines, Inc. - effective through December 31, 1995 Farrell Lines Incorporated - effective through December 31, 1995 Five other renewal applications have been filed: Termination of Company Present Contract American President Lines, Ltd. December 31, 1976 American President Lines, Ltd. December 31, 1978 States Steamship Company December 31, 1977 Lykes Bros. Steamship Co., Inc. December 31, 1977 Prudential Lines, Inc December 31, 1977 Pacific Far East Line, Inc. December 31, 1978 1/ This application also involves a two-year contract covering their existing service, if agreement cannot be reached on a new 20-year contract by December 31, 1976. The two-year contract would terminate concurrently with the current ODS agreement of APL's American Mail Line Division, December 31, 1978. These renewal applications are in various stages of administrative processing and review. Other U.S.-flag operators have intervened on all ODS contract renewals based on services which are directly competitive with the subsidized operators service. UNITED STATES MERCHANT FLEET AGE ANALYSIS OCEANGOING SHIPS OF 1.000 GROSS TONS AND OVER (TONAGE IN THOUSANDS) JUNE 30. 1976 SUBSIDIZED FLEET TOTAL GROSS DEAD AVG/AGE 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 OVER 20 x UVER 20 COMBINATIONS 6 744 503 16.3 . 0 0 4 0 2 033.3 FREIGHTERS 174 24,030 29.009 11.0 30 46 68 9 21 012.0 BULK CARRIERS 2 802 1,644 02.5 2 0 0 0 0 000.0 TANKERS 12 3.959 7.726 01.2 12 0 0 0 0 000.0 TOTAL SUBSIDIZED 194 29,535 30,002 11.2 44 46 72 9 23 011.8 NON.SUBSIDIZED FLEET COMBINATIONS 0 0 0 00.0 0 0 0 0 0 000.0 FREIGHTERS 130 20,603 20,767 20.3 24 16 16 1 73 056.1 BULK CARRIERS 16 2,126 3.649 28.1 1 0 1 0 14 087.5 TANKERS 237 50,640 91.263 19.5 35 19 21 53 109 045.9 TOTAL NON-SUBSIDIZED 383 73,369 115.679 20.1 60 35 30 54 196 051.1 PRIVATE OWNED FLEET COMBINATIONS 6 744 503 16.3 0 0 4 0 2 FREIGHTERS 033.3 304 44,633 49.776 15.4 54 62 84 10 94 BULK CARRIERS 030.9 18 2,928 5.293 25.3 3 0 1 0 14 TANKERS 077.7 249 54,599 98.989 18.6 47 19 21 53 109 043.7 TOTAL PRIVATE OWNED FLEET 577 102,904 154,561 17.1 104 81 110 63 219 037.9 Ship Construction Program 1. Proposed Objective The primary purpose of this objective is to continue the ship construction program initiated by the Merchant Marine Act, 1970. This objective is included because of its importance, even though its inclusion may not be justified by the guidance that MBO objectives should not deal with problems beyond the control of the Department. MarAd influence is limited in this area because CDS applications generally reflect market forces that MarAd does not control. The actual control which can be exerted by MarAd stems from control over ODS contracts and leverage provided by replace- ment obligations, the persuasion and promotion exercised through mechanisms like meetings with shippers and implementation of legislative and administrative changes which will facilitate the ship construction process. 2. Justification Under the 1970 Act, the Maritime Administration has been embarked on a program to strengthen the technical capability and increase the productive efficiency of U.S. shipyards. In addition, there have bee= specialized ship construction efforts especially for the carriage cf energy materials like oil and liquefied natural gas. In recent periods, tanker business worldwide has fallen off and contracts for some tankers were cancelled and thousands of jobs have been lost. Of 13 major U.S. shipyards, which provide approximately 40,000 jobs, it is estimated that at least six will need new work in FY 1977. These are (1) Seatrain Shipbuilding, Brooklyn, New York; (2) Sun Shipbuilding, Chester, Pennsylvania; (3) Bethlehem Steel, Sparrows Point, Maryland; (4) Newport News (Commercial), Newport News, Virginia; (5) Litton/Ingalls, Pascagoula, Mississippi; and (6) Avondale Shipyard, New Orleans, Louisiana. Although in recent years there has not been a substantial number of orders for general cargo vessels (container, LASH, Ro/Ro, etc.), we anticipate substantially increased intent for this type of vessel in the near future. It is further anticipated that this intent will result in contracts for construction of this type of vessel. In addition, there is a new emphasis toward dry bulk ship construction. Dry bulk construction is a special objective and the following facts are noteworthy: 2 In 1974, dry bulk cargoes constituted 45 percent of U.S. foreign trade. O Dry bulk ships carry principally grains, coal, and ores. - A large part of the grain shipments are aid program shipments by the U.S. Government to foreign countries. - A minimum of 50 percent of these shipments has been reserved for U.S.-flag ships under Public Law 664. O The 1970 Merchant Marine Act envisaged the construction of substantially increased dry bulk carrier capacity. O To date, this objective has not been met. - The U.S. bulk fleet consists of only 19 vessels with an average age of well over 25 years. - U.S.-flag dry bulk carriers move only approximately two percent of all such cargoes moving in U.S. foreign commerce. 3. Approach The approach will include, in addition to the normal operations of MarAd's ship construction program, assessing ship demand quarterly prior to each briefing of the Secretary of Commerce on MarAd's objectives. The status of existing ship construction projects in order to determine the most active and viable contracts will be examined. At the present time, Exhibit 1 presents tabular type data on the active projects as of October 1976. The Maritime Administration currently has underway an expanded marketing effort designed to demonstrate the advantages of construc- tion and operation of U.S.-flag ships to major operators and shippers of bulk cargoes. The promotion of dry bulk carrier construction will be implemented by conducting promotional meetings with six individual companies by December 1976, developing an agency-wide strategy to achieve legislative, regulatory and administrative changes for presentation to Congress. 4. Resources The magnitude of the resources involved in this objective can be approximated by the projected $214 million in ship construction obligations for FY 1977 and a rough estimate of 123 positions for those MarAd offices directly involved in the ship construction program. 3 5. Responsible Office Assistant Administrator for Operations Mr. J. J. Nachtsheim 6. Milestones (a) During FY 1977, contract for 14 ships. September 1977 (b) Promote the construction of dry bulk carriers in U.S. shipyards: (1) Conduct a series of promotional meetings with six individual companies by December 1976. January 1977 (2) Develop an agency-wide strategy to achieve bulk vessel construction. January 1977 (3) Draft necessary revised legislative changes for presentation to Congress. February 1977 (c) Assess the actual ship construction that has been contracted for in FY 1977. September 1977 Smrry Commetics Program Objective Change in Status Continue the ship construction program initiated by the Merchant Marine Act, 1970. On schedule. Milestones Oct. Nov Dec Jun Feb Mur Apr May Jun 1011 Aug :: (a) During FY 1977, contract for 14 ships. (b) Promote the construction of dry bulk carriers in U.S. shipyards: (1) Conduct a series of promotional meetings with six individual companies by December 197 . 0 (2) Develop an agency-wide strategy to achieve bulk vessel construction. 0 (3) Draft necessary revised legislative changes for presentation to Congress. o (c) Assess The actual ship construction that has been contracted for in FY 1977. FORM SEC-904 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMME, 12-781 MBO TYPING FORMAT Exhibit 1 November 9. 2976 ACTIVE SHIP CCISTRUCTION PROJECTS Estimated Potential Number c: Type of Ship DWT CDS Funding Purchaser Fiscal Year Commitment Containershics "2 CNTR 18,000 60,000,000 American President Lines Itd. 1978 #4 CNTR Accelerated replacement obligation 28,000 170,000,000 Sea-Land Corporation 1978 Confidential conversations with MarAd officials/Explornacy meetings with LAMI shipyards * LASH 38,000 76,000,000 Waterman Steamship Corporation 1977 CDS Application/Condition or proposal 2 LASH ODS contract 38,000 42,000,000 Waterman Steamship Corporation Roll-cn/Roll-cff 1978 Replacement obligation 3- Ro,'Ro's 14,500 70,000,000 Waterman Steamship Corporation 1978 CDS Application 1 Ro/Ro-Barge (113 trailers) 4,500,000 Cumberland Shipping Company 1977 or 78 1 Ro/Ro-Esrge ( " " CDS Application . ) 4,500,000 1 Rail-Sea Corporation 1977 or 78 Ro/Ro-Barge " : 6,000,000 CDS Application Cove Carriers, Inc. 1977 or 78 CDS Application Liquofied Natural Gas Carriers "2 Lild's 125,000m 66,000,000 Panhandle Eastern (Lactmar) # 3 LIG's 1977 CDS Application 125,000m 99,000,000 Pacific Lighting (Zapata) 1977 or 78 "5 LNG's CDS Application 125,000m 180,000,000 E1 Faso II 1978 FPC hearings underway Breakbulk Shics *3 Breakbulk 2,000 9,000,000 American Atlontic Shipping (American Marine Industries) 1977 "2 Breakbulk/Container/Ro-Ro CDS Application 13,000 35,000,000 Prudential Lines, Inc. 1978 Replacement obligation End meetings with MarAd officials Heavy Lift Ships *? 2 Heavy 11: 4,500 10,000,000 American !leavy Lift Ship: !! 1977 CDS Application Company 2. 2 Estimated Extential Number of Type == Ship D.F. CDS Funding Purchaser Fiscal Year Commitment Bull: Carriers 32/ 2 Bulk 35,000 $61,000,000 Falcon Cango Ships 1977 or 78 CD3 Application to Bulk-ore 35,000 41,000,000 E.I. Du Font de Demours 1977 or 78 Communication with MarAi officials = Chemical 6,500 8,000,000 E.I. Du Pont de Memours LATT or 70 Communication with MarAd officials Conversions (2. Conversions 10,000,000 Lykes Bros. Steamship Co.,In:. 1977 or 78 Communication with MarAi officials (2) Conversions 10,000,000 Moore-McCormack Lines 1977 or 78 Communication with MorAi officials (1) Conversions 5,000.000 E.I. Du Font de Memours 1977 or 78 Communication with MarAd orficials Conversions 5,000,000 American President Lines 1277 :: + (v) Totals CES Application (11-0-76) 372,000,000 10 These projects appear in the ship mix for the 1973 budget although all the ships in each project =sy not be funded. 1/ C::1on for a fourth. 2/ :::1on for a third. 10.80 V.S. DEPARTMENT of CONVERCE MONIM OF REPORT NO. LOLO MANIFINE FOR OFFICIAL USE C. SHIPYARD EMPLOYMENT shij, 2976 (EXCLUDING SUBCONTRACTED WORK; in ye.de with shipbuilding factl., for chips 473 by " Irel PRODUCTION WORKERS SHIPBUILDING SHIP REPAIR All Employees 95,973 Total Total Plant Production Total : coluction Embere 17,022 Employees markers Mores Nov Chese Private 1.0.00 ( - Mared todetal kynn Novy when Indical Veras 1 : . " , 1. , . " :- " CHAND TOM 25,273 77.022 64,083 17,314 4.6 1 14" " - ind ATLANDIC C.A.:. 5:10 31,107 "%" 1,1.4 1% - 1, " - ,14 - Math Iron Works 1,250 2,100 1,19 1,0% ⑆ - 1%) 121 to 121 - - General Dynactos vulucy 4.735 2,304 2,j4j 1,353 1 - 960 42 - 12 - - Sentrain Shiptlis, Brooklyn 1,194 1,274 1,274 B:1 4 - "33 - - - - - Fun Dritock 3,725 3,017 2,522 - - - 2,522 221 - - - Phyle:1 Shiebling. & Drydock 1,527 900 232 . - - 232 575 - 2:3 - ::: Iritletes Steel, Sparrows Point 3,606 2,215 2,178 2,152 16 - - 67 - - - (0 Newpor: ""I" Sairolds. & Drvdock 23,667 18,912 16.193 2,336 11. 5 - - 1,373 - PIA $ 1.7' COUP COAST 26,192 30,593 24,98, 1,007 17,274 - 5,800 5,089 - 2,07 - is, Aleta-n Drytock & Shipblds. 2,200 I 3,153 1.021 - - 1,521 431 - - - 1.7 Litter/Ingells, PreceRoula 22,692 19,498 17,273 - 17,778 - - 2,223 - 2,017 - : Avor.isle Snippords 6,499 5,795 3,779 1,901 . - 1,87. 2,710 - - - E Levingstin Shiptlis., Orange 2,028 1,590 1,109 - : - 1,109 123 - - - 13 Bethleken Steel, Beaumont 1,072 818 380 - , - ieo 291 - - - 291 Muration Stipbles.. Brownsville 748 61A 618 - r 61A - - - - - - FACIFIC COAS? 14,601 12,950 9,982 4,013 2,174 445 3,3.0 1.4:1 - SET IIL 7:2 NY: 1 SHIPPED 6.355 5.0.15 5.20 1,142 1. - 1.5% 2:,7 - 411 - :.: Tois Sun Pedro 2,130 2,024 1,471 941 ú - 314 144 - 15 - 12 P-thleten Strel, Sun Francisco 570 370 141 - 1 - 161 11 - 40 75 $ Corl Portland 2,104 1,78: 9!! - - 989 - - - - - Lockteed Chipting., Senttle 2,388 2,193 1,795 1. 1, %0 445 - 200 - - 0 27.1 Ti:1 Entered, Senttle 973 07 340 - 145 - 203 317 - 101 3: 205 GREAT LAMES 2,850 2.16. 1,704 - - - 1,794 10% - - 21 ::5 American Chipbidg... lorain 1,072 for C2') - + - 528 260 - - - "in Chipbide., Toledo 1PM 307 307 - - - 07 - - - - - LISEARY l'efse Shiphild., bay City 1.11 - , - - - - - 4 - - - Bay thirblds., Sturgeon Bay 1,138 1,0% 737 - - 737 197 - - 21 1% 13 122 122 - - Frazer Superior 192 - ' - - - - office of AVERAGE MONTHLY SHIPYARD EMPLOYMENT R 4 act ELEI CII os FACILITIES TO CON. ,CT SHIPS 475 BY 68 FEET TOTAL SHIP CONSTRUCTION AND CONVERSION SHIP REPAIR NO. TOTAL DIRECT OTHER OTHER AR MONTH YARDS PLANT LABOR TOTAL MARAD NAVY FED PRIVATE TOTAL MARAD NAVY FED. PRIVATE 1959 JAN 21 65,458 54,715 45,744 2,082 24,016 - 19,646 6,562 25 1,654 - 4,883 1:60 JAN 21 65,848 54,991 47,460 8,294 30,799 - 8,367 4,922 - 312 I 4,610 1.61 JAN 21 66,682 54,091 46,314 9,008 32,913 - 4,393 5,629 16 1,470 - 4,143 1.112 JAN 20 59,328 51,521 41,623 13,554 25,808 - 2,261 6,725 - 1,948 - 4,777 63 JAN 20 57,477 49,292 40,873 11,522 27,090 - 2,261 5,524 - 1,106 - 4,418 1064 JAN 21 51,381 43,695 35,710 6,215 26,999 - 2,496 5,934 1 1,638 - 4,296 1965 JAN 21 65,736 55,264 42,606 6,821 30,127 - 5,658 11,021 - 5,775 I 5,246 1966 JAN 21 72,612 57,208 44,193 5,638 31,975 120 6,460 11,324 653 5,148 - 5,523 1967 JAN 21 72,416 59,159 42,360 8,113 29,171 840 4,236 14,173 288 6,171 - 7,714 1968 JAN 20 75,368 62,234 47,263 10,462 28,930 2,025 5,846 12,887 2 5,901 251 6,733 1469 JAN- 20 77,888 63,746 50,417 11,313 30,285 139 8,680 11,803 10 5,763 79 5,951 1.70 JAN 21 78,984 61,770 43,961 2,763 30,373 - 10,825 16,085 - 10,127 95 5,863 1071 JAN 19 73,388 60,701 44,144 8,196 27,412 - 8,536 14,920 55 6,499 238 8,128 1972 JAN 20 78,079 64,690 49,546 13,565 26,166 26 9,789 12,858 1 5,793 208 6,856 1973 JAN 19 81,527 64,929 54,950 11,875 31,937 445 10,693 7,631 - 2,778 61 4,792 1974 WAN 25 90,028 74,094 60,953 8,869 33,844 865 17,375 9,651 - 4,160 68 5,423 1975 JAN 24 95,337 75,882 62,393 11,878 34,006 1,217 15,292 9,357 - 2,756 212 6,389 1976 JAN 24n/ 96,546 78,614 67,606 14,923 35,076 495 17,112 7,175 - 2,806 91 4,278 FEB 24a/ 97,008 33,784 71,518 16,582 37,412 507 MAR 24b/ 94,329 74,577 64,061 15,440 33,859 17:283 8,525 I 3,661 116 4,748 557 6,786 - 2,067 298 4,421 APR 24c/ 06,199 76,320 64,135 14,710 34,694 542 14,189 8,481 - 2,808 155 5,518 MAY 24 97,098 80,728 66,782 15,186 35,955 533 15,108 9,929 - 3,737 162 6,030 JUN 24d/ 97,345 81,289 67,556 14,771 37,422 445 14,918 9,920 - 3,549 172 6,199 JUL 24 95,973 77,022 64,083 13,814 34,603 1145 15,221 9,498 - 3,398 135 5,965 AUG GENALD SEP OCT FORD NOV LIBRARY DEC n/ Includes Maryland Shipbuilding and Drydock, which VII strikebound. U.S. DEPARTMENT of CO. MARITIME ADDITISTRATION !! Includes Maryland ShipbullJing and Drydock ,1114 Mahum :ssool. OFFICE OF IIV. SHIPYARD STATUS: NEED FOR NEW BUSINESS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARITIME ADMINISTRATION (As of 10-1-76*) TIME NOW MAJOR COMMERCIAL SHIPYARDS 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 BATH IRON WORKS - BATH, ME. GEN. DYN. . QUINCY, MASS. SEATRAIN - BROOKLYN, N.Y. SUN - CHESTER, P.A. BETH. STEEL - SP. PT., MD. NEWPORT NEWS (COMM.) NASSCO - SAN DIEGO, CALIF. TODO - SAN PEDRO, CALIF. LOCKHEED - SEATTLE, WA. INGALLS - LITTON AVONDALE - N.O., LA. MARYLAND - BALT., MD. FMC - PORTLAND, ORE. TODO - SEATTLE, WA. END OF BAR INDICATES WHEN YARD NEEDS NEW CONTRACTS IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE BACKLOG FOR AVAILABLE FACILITIES AND MANPOWER. ASSUME 8 MONTH ADMINISTRATIVE AND PRE-FAB TIME (LEAD TIME BEFORE KEEL LAYING). U.S./U.S.S.R. Maritime Agreement 1. Procosed Objective The purpose of this objective is to renegotiate new shipping rates for the U.S./U.S.S.R. Maritime Agreement and to monitor performance against the Agreement. The U.S./U.S.S.R. Maritime Agreement is an important impetus to the normalization and expansion of commercial relationships between the United States and the Soviet Union. The negotiation of new shipping rates and the monitoring of cargoes under the Agreement will be instrumental in guaranteeing a fair share of the trade to U.S.-flag vessels. 2. Justification An historic maritime agreement was signed on October 14, 1972 which provides the broad framework and ground rules for maritime activities between the United States and the Soviet Union. A new six-year agreement was signed on December 29, 1975, which supplants the original agreement. The new agreement maintains the two basic objectives of the old agreement; first, it keeps open the channels of maritime commerce between the two nations by continuing to facilitate access to major U.S.-flag and Soviet-flag vessels; and, second, it affords to U.S. and Soviet vessels the opportunity to participate equally and substantially in the carriage of all cargoes moving by sea between two nations. Directly attributable to the Maritime Agreements are the improved lines of communication between U.S. and Soviet shipping officials and scientific personnel. Under the auspices of the joint U.S./ U.S.S.R. Commission on Cooperation in Transportation, maritime industry officials from the two countries have exchanged visits. Cooperative programs have been established in the areas of port and cargo operations, handling of basardous cargo, port management training, and marine terminal technology and control systems. With respect to liner service, U.S.-flag carriers have experienced no difficulty in participating in the U.S./U.S.S.R. trade at existing rate levels and will continue to do SO under the terms of the new 1975 Agreement. However, the matter of freight rates to be paid to U.S. vessels in the bulk trades is an important provision of the Agreement. The most important category of charter rates is for agricultural commodities and products. Under terms of the Agreement such cargoes shall be carried at a mutually acceptable rate. For fixtures made between 1/1/76 and 12/31/76, both sides agreed to continue the indexing method arrived at on September 17, 1975 for the establishment of charter rates for U.S.-flar vessels. 2 Both sides have further agreed to meet during 1976 to discuss and reach agreement upon rates for fixtures made after December 31, 1976. This agreement on new rates is the primary purpose of the objective stated for this program area. 3. Approach The approach to developing a new agreement for 1977 shipping rates will be to conduct a full scale negotiating meeting in Washington, D.C. where the remaining issues will be assessed and the require- ments for a follow-on meeting determined. By the end of the calendar year, it is expected that a final agreement will be completed. Successful resolution of rate issues will provide the opportunity for U.S. carriage currently estimated at a total of 4.39 million tons in 1977. Major issues for negotiation will include the following: O Expiration of rate for grain cargoes. The current charter rate expires December 31, 1976. A new rate is needed effective January 1, 1977. The U.S. is seeking continuation of the $16 rate which is considered acceptable. It is expected that this will be resolved prior to the expiration date. Implementation and compliance with provisions of the 1975 Agreement. - imbalances in carriage of grain for 1975 and 1976 - imbalance in carriage of other bulk cargoes in 1975 resolution of controlled cargo issue. The point of contention is the obligation of Soviet Foreign Trade Organizations to execute purchase and sales contracts to meet the objectives of the Agreement. The U.S.S.R. maintains that the FTO's are not affected and that it is only the Soviet shipping entities, SOVINFLOT and SOVFRACHT, that are involved and only to the extent that the terms of shipment provide a basis for routing cargo to specific carriers. - imbalance in carriage of liner cargoes in 1976. - Based on the results of the June meeting with U.S.S.R. representatives, it appears this issue will be resolved prior to December 31, in the rate negotiation framework. It is anticipated the Soviets will bargain severely and in order to obtain a favorable agreement on freight rates, it may be appropriate for them to compromise on imbalance issues. 3 Since 1972 the U.S. has carried about 23.5 percent of the grain cargoes which is less than its one-third share allowed under the maritime agreement. This is currently due to the existence of disputes over certain ships and routes not acceptable by the Soviets. There is and has been sufficient U.S.-flag tonnage to to carry our share of the projected grain purchases. 4. Resources Although it is difficult to estimate the dollars and man-years involved in the negotiating process because of the inherent uncertainties, the negotiation will be conducted with existing resources. 5. Responsible Office Assistant Secretary for Maritime Affairs Mr.' Robert J. Blackwell 6. Milestones (a) Obtain new freight rate agreement with Soviets for period beginning 1-1-77. (1) Continue full scale meetings on rate negotiations Oct. 1976 (2) Conclude final agreement for rates effective 1-1-77 Dec. 1976 (b) Monitor the carriage of cargoes moving between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. to assure the equal access to shipping trade, and provide annual accountings of movement. (1) Develop preliminary accounting for calendar year 1976. Jan. 1977 (2) Adjust for any imbalances and develop final accounting for calendar year 1976. Mar. 1977 0.8 S.I MII III: Objective Change in Status Renegotiate new shipping rates for the U.S./U.S.S.R. Maritime Agreement and monitor performance against the agreement. On schedule. Milestones Oct Nov Dec Jun Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Allig is (a) Obtain new freight rate agreement with Soviets for period beginning 1-1-77. (1) Continue full scale meetings on rate negotiations. (2) Conclude final agreement for rates effective 1-1-77. o (b) Monitor the carriage of cargoes moving between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. to assure the equal access to shipping trade, and provide annual accountings of movement. (1) Develop preliminary accounting for calendar year 1976. O (2) Adjust for any imbalances and develop final accounting for calendar year 1976. o U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMME FORM SEC-904 (2-78) MBO TYPING FORMAT Ready Reserve Fleet Plan 1. Proposed Objective The purpose of the Ready Reserve Fleet Plan is to provide a signifi- cant number of ships in the National Defense Reserve Fleet in an advanced state of readiness. This will be carried out through e joint Navy-MarAd program, with the bulk of the dollar resources being supplied by DOD (Navy). 2. Justification The National Defense Reserve Fleet is the only source of reserve U.S.-flag break-bulk shipping capacity available to the United States during a military or commercial shipping crisis. DOD (Navy) considers the NDRF to be a vital asset in contingency planning. During the past two decades the reserve fleet has served the nation cn a number of occasions by supplementing existing commercial and military sealift capacity. In these earlier call-ups of NDRF ships, breakcut time was not a dominating consideration. Ships were put in service over a period of weeks or months. Current DOD contingency planning, however, calls for supplementary sealift in 2 much shorter time; within the first 10-15 days of a commitment of American forces or material. 3. Approach Under the present NDRF preservation program, the ships in the NDRF are merely maintained and preserved in the condition in which they were in when deactivated and delivered to the fleet sites. The time required to reactivate ships in this state of preservation would not be responsive to early DOD needs at the start of the contingency. DOD (Navy) has included funding in their 1977 and out-year financial plans to commence E program to upgrade up to 30 selected ships, at the rate of up to five ships per year, to an advanced state of reactivation readiness. The Ready Reserve Fleet Plan consists of three phases: presctivation, NDRF maintenance and repair, and a five to ten day reactivation if and when required. Preactivation includes performance of certain shipyard work required to improve the material condition of the ships so that they may be reactivated within a five to ten day timeframe. Upon return to the NDRF, the ships must be maintained in an advanced state of maintenance and repair far beyond the state provided in the minimal preservation program now in effect. Navy will fund preactivation shipyard work. However, MarAd will provide the supervision and inspection of upgrading and then continue to maintain the ships in the NDRF at an advanced state of readiness after upgrading has been completed. By the end of 1978 the plan calls for ten ships to be upgraded to an (: advanced state ": readiness. It is estimated that will be approximately 189 riling 201 tonti : :: ::. National Diffense Reserve Fleet at the end c: Fi 1978. These 20 ships in en advanced state of readiness EILL thus be only about 5 percent of the HDRF = the end of FY 1978. Present plans colling for the upgraiing 02 30 ships at a rate of 5 ships per year means that it will take six years :: place approximately :- percent or the commercial ships in the WORF (based upon FY 1978 number :: vessels) in an advanced state of readiness. L. Resources It is expected that DCD (NETT) will transfer 85.3 million to Marki for FY 1977 funding :: the Ready Reserve Fleet Fien. It :: estimated that MarAd personnel will contribute five man-years :: effort in FY 1977, and that 220,000 ===-days of effort will to contracted 5. Responsible Office (a) Office Responsible for Ship Lay-up: Assistant Administrator for Operations Mr. J. J. Nachtsheiz (b) Office Responsible for Interaction with Navy: Assistant Administrator for Policy and Administration Mr. Russell F. Stryker 6. Milestones Place five chips in shipyari for activation:* (1) First Ship January 1977 (2) Second Ship March 1977 (3) Third Ship May 1977 (4) Fourth Ship July 1977 (5) Fifth Ship October 1977 FORD : LIBRARY GERALD *Schedule ard number of ships tentative (total number of ships :: be equivalent to five Victory ships). neady neserve Fle lan Objective Change in Status Provide a significant number of ships in the National Defense Reserve Fleet in an advanced* state of readiness. On schedule. Milestones Oct Nov Dec Tan Feb Mar Apr May Jun lul Aug Sep Oct (R) Place five ships in shipyard for activation:* (1) First Ship (2) Second Ship 0 (3) Third Ship o (4) Fourth Ship o (5) Fifth Ship "Schedule and number of ships tentative (total number of ships to be equivalent to five Victory ships). SEC-904 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MBO TYPING FORMAT Equal Opportunity in Maritime Industries 1. Proposed jective The purpose of this objective is to attain equal opportunity in the maritime industries by achieving full minority and female participa- tion in all segments of the maritime industries' workforces and by promoting the development of minority business enterprise. Achieve- ments in the attainment of full minority and female participation will be compiled in June 1977 (for specifics, see Milestones below). 2. Justification The Maritime Administration is responsible for securing contractual EEO compliance by maritime industry contractors located in coastal states. This responsibility derives from Executive Orders 11246 and 11375 and is delegated to the Department of Commerce by the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs Order No. 1. The Maritime Administration also promotes the use of mincrity business enterprises by MarAd contractors and subcontractors. The authority for this program is derived from Executive Order 11625. In addition, Federal Procurement Regulations require that all govern- ment contracts which may exceed $500,000 include a clause assuring minority business enterprises the maximum practicable opportunity to participate in the performance of government contracts. 3. Approach Within the Maritime Administration, responsibility for this objective is delegated to the Office of Civil Rights. This office develops, disseminates and coordinates policies, procedures and directives to ensure the proper implementation of these programs in Washington and the field. In this regard, MarAd's Eastern, Central and Western Regions have civil rights specialists who carry out compliance and promotional responsibilities related to the two programs. Equal Employment Opportunity responsibilities include the conduct of comprehensive on-site EEO compliance reviews and investigation of discrimination complaints. Duties related to the minority enterprise program include efforts to encourage maritime contractors to make greater use of minority businesses and to create a greater awareness by minority enterprises of the opportunities to supply goods and services to the maritime industry. 2 In the area of contract compliance, MarAd will make use of on-site compliance reviews, investigation of complaints and affirmative action plans to achieve its goals for minority and female employment in the maritime industry. If deficiencies are encountered during these reviews or investigations, then conciliation agreements and affirmative action plans with specific commitments, goals and timetables will be developed. Admittedly, these goals do not call for substantial gains over the 1976 level. However, if industry employment declines and the last hired-first fired guideline is used as expected, maintenance of gains in minority employment will be a significant achievement. In the areas of minority business enterprise, MarAd will continue previous efforts by promoting greater use of those minority businesses which now have maritime contracts in operation as well as other minority firms desiring to enter the maritime field. MarAd will also assist minority entrepeneurs who wish to form companies providing services or goods to the maritime industry. Assistance will be offered in introducing prospective minority contractors to maritime industry officials and by coordinating with other Federal agencies such as OMBE and SBA. Activities planned to achieve goals include visits to major shipyards and to major shipping companies to encourage greater use of minority firms, showings of MarAd's minority business exhibit at conventions held by minority groups such as the Minority Businessmen's Group and the Urban League, distribution of the Minority Business Directory to all major shipyards and all shipping companies, and arrangement of meetings between individual entrepreneurs and maritime contractors. 4. Resources For the full FY 1977, approximately $620,000 and 28 man-years are to be committed to the Maritime Administration's equal opportunity efforts. 5. Responsible Office Office of Civil Rights Director: Mr. John M. Heneghan 6. Milestones (a) Attain minority and female participation in the maritime industry in CY 1976 as follows: 28.0 percent minority in the total workforce, 30.0 percent minority representation in skilled jobs, 10.7 percent minority representation in salaried white collar positions, and 5.0 percent female representation in the blue collar workforce. April 1977 3 (b) Achieve $12.0 million in contracts placed with minority and female businesses which deal with the maritime industries between July 1, 1976 and June 30, 1977 June 1977 (c) Establish six minority and female contractors within the maritime industry between July 1, 1976 and June 30, 1977. June 1977 Equal Opportunity in Ma. time Industries Objective Change in Status Attain equal opportunity in the maritime industries by achieving full minority and female participation in all segments of the maritime On schedule. industries' workforces and by promoting the development of minority business enterprise. Milestones Oct: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Be n) Attain minority and female participation in the maritime industry in CY 1976 as follows: 28.0 percent minority in the total workforce, 30.0 percent minority representation in salaried white collar positions, and 5.0 percent female representation in the blue collar workforce. 0 b) Achieve $12.0 million in contracts placed with minority and female businesses which deal with the maritime industries between July 1, 1976 and June 30, 1977. c) Establish six minority and female contractors within the maritime industry between July 1, 1976 and June 30, 1977. O SEC-904 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MBO TYPING FORMAT FISCAL 1977 NFPCA OBJECTIVES General. NFPCA proposed six fiscal 1977 objectives. The three listed first are completely new; the other three are successors to fiscal 1976 objectives. Public education assistance. Residential Fire Safety Research. Residential Fire Protection systems. Education and training program of the National Academy. Fire protection master planning National Fire Satistics. These six objectives cover about 64% of NFPCA's program. Public Education Assistance. This objective aims at establishing plans, guidelines and program models for the delivery of effective public education programs to states and communities. Residential Fire Safety Research. This objectives involves development of a program of recommended standards and practices to reduce residential fire deaths. The program will include: (1) validation of a flammability test method for wearing apparel; (2) development of criteria for limiting fire spread in mobile homes; (3) developing a protocol for full-scale room fire tests; (4) developing optimum siting for residential smoke detectors; and (5) developing a test protocol for screening materials for extremely toxic combustion products. Work is carried out by NBS and should be essentially completed by September 30, 1977. Residential Fire Protection Systems. The objective here involves development of the required systems performance specifications for (1) a low-cost automatic residential fire alarm system and (2) a fire suppression system. Both systems will be aimed at reducing residential fire deaths, injuries, and property losses. 2 Education and Training Program Of the National Academy. This objective encompasses the development, delivery, and testing of the effectiveness of courses for use by the Academy, state and local governments, colleges, and universities. Ten courses will be conducted for 1900 students by October 1977. Fire Protection Master Planning. This objective aims at providing the Nation's fire services with essential tools to develop and implement their own fire protection master planning programs, with specific products to be available by March 1977. National Fire Statistics. The objective here would establish a rudimentary national fire data base and produce the first NFPCA statistical tables and summaries of the national, state, and local experience by October 1977. These tables and summaries will: describe the United States fire experience quantitatively, in terms of fire incidence, losses, casulties, and causes; compare state and local experience against the national picture (for states with available data) ; identify specific fire protection problem areas; and provide feedback to state and local level. November 1976 LIBRARY P. 1-1 OBJECTIVE NO. 1 THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING PROGRAM OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY FOR FIRE PREVENTION AND CONTROL 1. Proposed Objective. To develop, deliver, and test the effectiveness of courses for use by the Academy, state and local governments, colleges and universities. Ten courses will be conducted for 1900 students by October 1977. 2. Justification. There is a need to up-grade the professional ability of state and local personnel to prevent and control fire losses and to train trainers for a multiplier effect. Course subjects are based upon priority needs assessment. 3. Approach. The National Academy for Fire Prevention and Control will select outside contractors to perform task analyses; develop performance objectives; design instructional methods and materials; package, test, validate and revise courses as necessary. The Academy will conduct courses and deliver packages for dissemination and implementation on the state and local level. 4. Resources. $1,088,000 and fifteen man-years. 5. Responsible Office. The National Academy for Fire Prevention and Control will execute this initiative with primary responsibility resting with the Superintendent, David M. McCormack. 6. Program and Milestones. P. 1-2 A. Labor/Management Relations 1. Conduct task analysis and needs 7/76 identification 2. Determine performance objectives 7/76 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 12/76 4. Validate and test instructional materials 2/77 5. Amend and revise as necessary 4/77 6. Implement course delivery 4/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 4/77 8. Measure student retention on a 4/77 continuing basis Purpose. This course is designed to give local government officials and fire service chief administrators insight in current federal legislation and methods for developing and maintaining sound labor relations with fire service unions and public employee groups. P. 1-3 B. Overview of Master Planning. 1. Conduct task analysis and needs identification 5/76 2. Determine performance objectives 5/76 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 4/77 4. Validate and test instructional materials 5/77 5. Amend and revise as necessary 5/77 6. Implement course delivery 6/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 7/77 8. Measure student retention on a continuing basis 7/77 Purpose. This is an overview course designed to assist local government officials in understanding the master planning concept and a method for organizing the community to prepare for its implementation. P. 1-4 C. Systems Requirements. 1. Conduct task analysis and needs identification 1/75 2. Determine performance objectives 1/75 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 4/75 4. Validate and test instructional materials 6/75 5. Amend and revise as necessary 5/76 6. Implement course delivery 7/76 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 11/76 8. Measure basis student retention on a continuing 11/76 Purpose. The Systems Requirements course will provide responsible fire service management personnel with administrative tools to analyze fire department operations in order to improve evolutions, safety and equipment utilization. P. 1-5 D. Arson I 1. Conduct task analysis and-needs identification 2/76 2. Determine performance objectives 3/77 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 4/77 4. Validate and test instructional materials 10/77 5. Amend and revise as necessary 11/77 6. Implement course delivery 12/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 12/77 8. Measure student retention on a continuing basis 1/78 Purpose. The Arson Investigator I course will provide technical competence for entry level Arson Investigation Personnel in the full range of applicable subject areas. P. 1-6 E. Data and Coding Format. 1. Conduct task analysis and needs identification 12/76 2. Determine performance objectives 12/76 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 1/77 4. Validate and test instructional materials 3/77 5. Amend and revise as necessary 3/77 6. Implement course delivery 7/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 7/77 8. Measure student retention on a continuing basis 7/77 Purpose. The course is designed to train fire departments and state personnel in the utilization of the National Fire Data System forms and format. P. 1-7 F. Fire Safety Design for Architects. 1. Conduct task analysis and needs 12/75 identification 2. Determine performance objectives 1/76 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 6/76 4. Validate and test instructional materials 9/76 5. Amend and revise as necessary 11/76 6. Implement course delivery 1/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 1/77 8. Measure student retention on a continuing basis 1/77 Purpose. This course designed for practicing architects will provide an architectural education component by which fire safety will be considered in building design along with traditional considerations such as: "function, form, and building materials". P. 1-8 G. Implementation of Master Planning. 1. Conduct task analysis and needs identification 2/77 2. Determine performance objectives 2/77 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 5/77 4. Validate and test instructional materials 7/77 5. Amend and revise as necessary 9/77 6. Implement course delivery 11/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 11/77 8. Measure student retention on a continuing basis 11/77 Purpose. This course is designed to assist local government officials in implementing the master planning concept within their respective communities by providing the necessary organizational methods and guidance. P. 1-9 H. Instructor One. 1. Conduct task analysis and needs identification 7/76 2. Determine performance objectives 8/76 3. Develop instructional methods and materials 11/76 4. Validate and test instructional materials 6/77 5. Amend and revise as necessary 7/77 6. Implement course delivery 7/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 8/77 8. Measure student retention on a continuing basis 8/77 Purpose. The Instructor One course will provide state and local personnel with instructional techniques compatible with the Instructor One Standards of the National Professional Qualifications Board. P. 1-10 I. Management of Fire Prevention Programs. 1. Conduct task analysis and needs identification 2/77 2. Determine performance objectives 2/77 3. Develop instructional methods and 5/77 materials 4. Validate and test instructional materials 7/77 5. Amend and revise as necessary 9/77 6. Implement course delivery 11/77 7. Conduct evaluation of course material 11/77 8. Measure student retention on a continuing basis 11/77 Purpose. The Management of Fire Prevention Programs courses will provide local fire departments and public officials with techniques and methods for planning, initiating, effectively managing and evaluating fire prevention programs. P. 2-1 OBJECTIVE NO. 2 PUBLIC EDUCATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM 1. Proposed Objective. To establish plans, guidelines and program models for the delivery of effective public education programs to states and communities. 2. Justification. Many model community public fire education programs which are effective in fire loss reduction have been developed. To achieve the national fire loss reduction goal, these fire education programs must be implemented at the local level. The Public Education Assistance Program will establish the mechanism to deliver to communities tested fire education programs which have been proven to have loss reduction capability. 3. Approach. Four pilot states will be selected to re- ceive planning grants to establish model fire education delivery systems. The community public education process will be used to analyze state fire problems which can be effected through public education methods. An inventory of existing state public education resources, training capabilities, and commmunications capabilities will be made for each state. An assessment will be made of the optimum use of NFPCA grant and technical assistance in developing state public education program delivery and resource capability. The results of this activity will be drawn up as a model for the establishment of state public fire education pro- grams and NFPCA public education grant and technical assistance. In FY 78, grants will be provided to the four pilot states to carry out the planned program. 4. Resources. FY '77 $267,000 and 2.7 man-years FY '78 $500,000 and 6.0 man-years FY '79 $750,000 and 7.0 man-years The Public Education Assistance Program will continue at this level until 1986 when all states will have completed the program. 5. Responsible Office. The Public Education Office will execute this initiative with primary responsibility resting with the Associate Administrator for Public Education, Richard R. Strother. p. 2-2 6. Milestones. 1. Select four pilot states 10/76 2. Identify state fire problems 3/77 3. Inventory existing state resources, commmunications networks and program capabilities 4/77 4. Determine optimal role for Federal technical and grant assistance 6/77 5. Draft guidelines and criteria 7/77 6. Publish guidelines and criteria 9/77 P. 3.-1 OBJECTIVE NO. 3 FIRE PROTECTION MASTER PLANNING 1. Proposed Objective. To provide the Nation's fire services with essential tools to develop and implement their own fire protection master planning programs, with specific products to be available by March 1977. 2. Justification. The concept of fire protection master planning has been proposed as a method for improving the delivery of fire protection services. Planning guidelines and tools are needed by local jurisdictions to apply the concepts of master planning. These specific products are necessary in determining the ultimate impact of the master planning process. 3. Approach. Because of the differing nature and make-up of the Nation's political jurisdictions, specific manuals will be developed for application in four categories of jurisdictions (a) urban communities, (b) rural and small communities, (c) county-level jurisdictions, and (d) state-level jurisdictions. Step-by-step manuals will be developed for each of these categories and field tested before general national distribution. 4. Resources. $500,00 and four (4) man-years are estimated resource requirements for this objective. 5. Responsible Office. Charles H. Boehne, Program Manager, Planning and Management Research, National Fire Safety and Research Office. 6. Milestones. 1. Produce a manual for use by urban communities. a. delivery of camera-ready copy of community manualto NFPCA from the grantee 12/76 b. delivery of printed community manual for national distribution 3/77 C. initiation of community manual mailing 4/77 d. receive and review results of grant to evaluate the usefulness and applicability of community manual 7/77 P. 3-2 2. Produce a manual for use by rural and small communities a. completion of field validation of rural and small community manual 5/77 b. delivery of camera-ready copy of rural and small community manual to NFPCA from grantee 6/77 C. delivery of printed rural and small community manual for national distribution 9/77 3. Determine need for manual for use by county or multi-jurisdictional locations a. complete study on need for county-level manual 3/77 b. determine whether or not to proceed with development of the manual 4/77 C award grant, if appropriate, for development of the manual 5/77 4. Produce state-level master planning guidelines a. award grant to develop state master planning guidelines (in cooperation with Data, Academy and Legal Office) 12/76 b. identify state (s) appropriate to initiate pilot efforts in planning and organizing state-level activities 12/76 C. award grant (s) to initiate pilot efforts in state (s) 3/77 d. initiate national survey of state government activities in master planning 9/77 P. 4-1 OBJECTIVE NO. 4 NATIONAL FIRE STATISTICS 1. Proposed Objective. To establish a rudimentary national fire data base and produce the first NFPCA statistical tables and summaries of the national, state, and local experience by October 1977. These tables and summaries will: describe the United States fire experience quantitatively, in terms of fire incidence, losses, casualties, and causes; compare state and local experience against the national picture (for states with avail- able data) ; o identify specific fire protection problem areas; and o provide feedback to state and local level. 2. Justification. A national fire incident data base and resulting summaries are required for: providing better analytical information to state and local problem solvers; determining the magnitude of the overall fire problem in the United States; identifying specific fire protection trends and problem areas; measuring the effectiveness of fire prevention and control programs; and establishing priorities for new fire protection programs. The statewide data collection systems developed under this program are also intended to stimulate state and local collection and use of fire data for decision- making at those government levels. p. 4-2 3. Approach. The fire incident data collection system (forms, training manuals and ADP programs) for use at the state and local level was developed in FY 1976. Data are collected from local fire departments, aggregated at a state level, and submitted to the NFPCA for analysis. During FY 1977, nine new states will be added, bringing the total participating to 16. At the national level, fire data from the reporting states will be combined with data from other sources, e.g., Federal agencies and industry, to produce the national data base. Census Bureau data and personnel will be used to help analyze the fire data relative to community socio-economic and building characteristics. Tables and summaries will be prepared and fed back to state and local levels. 4. Resources. FY 1977 -- 12 man-years, $850,000 (in-house, plus outside costs). 5. Responsible Office. National Fire Data Center. Philip S. Schaenman, Acting Associate Administrator (in charge of the Center) 6. Milestones. 1. Issue start-up grants to nine new states 1/77 2. Produce statistical tables and summaries of the national fire experience 5/77 3. Complete initial, small-scale validation study 7/77 4. Complete system installation in the nine states expected to join the network in FY 1977 9/77 OBJECTIVE NO. 5 RESIDENTIAL FIRE SAFETY RESEARCH (NBS) Objective: To develop, through research, a program of recommended standards and practices to reduce residential fire deaths. The program will include: validation of a flammability test method for wearing apparel; development of criteria for limiting fire spread in mobile homes; developing a protocol for full-scale room fire tests; developing optimum siting for residential smoke detectors; and developing a test protocol for screening materials for extremely toxic combustion products. The program will be essentially completed by September 30, 1977. Justification: About 86% of all fire deaths and approximately one billion dollars of annual property losses are the results of residential fire incidents. Consequently, any program to reduce these losses must make residential fire safety a top priority. The Center for Fire Research has developed a comprehensive research plan which identifies key research objectives in terms of their potential impact on fire loss reduction. The projects presented here are critical technical steps in reducing losses in the most glaring area: residences. By limiting apparel flammability, residential deaths and injuries from burns due to these fires can be substantially reduced. NBS has proposed a general apparel standard to the Consumer Product Safety Commission, and, in FY 77, this method will be field tested and refined through a round robin interlaboratory test program. Mobile homes, which house more Americans each year, offer substantially greater risks from fire than do conventional dwellings. NBS, in cooperation with HUD, is carrying out an extensive program on mobile home fire safety, to be completed by the end of FY 77. In conventional dwellings, the contents of the home, rather than the structure itself, may be the greatest fire threat. Before the relative roles of building structure and building contents in fire severity can be understood, however, researchers must agree on a standard method of carrying out full-scale room fire studies. NBS has undertaken the development of such a standard protocol, and will have obtained its acceptance by voluntary standards groups by the end of fiscal year 1977. Smoke detectors, which are an important fire safety measure, are now available at reasonable cost. However, proper placement of the detector in the home, which is as important as the ability of the detector to respond to smoke, has until now been an empirical and imprecise business. NBS will publish scientifically-based recommended locations (siting) for residential detectors in fiscal year 1977. In most cases, toxic com- bustion gases, not heat and flame, are the cause of residential fire deaths. A test method will be developed in FY 77 to permit manufac- turers to screen potential new products and materials, especially for unusually toxic combustion products, prior to introducing them into the environment. P. 5-2 Approach: Intervening in typical residential fire scenarios can take place in four distinct ways: 1) preventing or controlling unwanted ignitions; 2) controlling spread and growth of fire; 3) detecting and suppressing the fire; and 4) providing means of protection for fire victims. Various combinations of these are used, depending on the problem. In this case the following are used: 1. Ignition - Round-robin validation of a proposed test method for general apparel flammability. 2. Spread and Growth - a) Recommend criteria for limiting fire growth in mobile homes. b) Propose a protocol for full-scale room fire tests. 3. Detection - Recommend test locations for smoke detectors in residences. 4. Victim Protection - Propose a test protocol for screening materials to identify extremely toxic combustion products. Resources: $1000 K (about $800 K DoC and another $200 K from HUD and CPSC) and 16 man years. P. 5-3 Responsible Officer: Center for Fire Research under the direction of Dr. J. W. Lyons, Director. Milestone: Project Milestone Month Passed General Apparel 1. Complete preliminary round- April 1977 robin testing of proposed test method. 2. Complete extended round- Sept. 1977 robin (= 30 labs) 3. Forward revised recommended Dec. 1977 test method to U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Mobile Home 1. Complete full-scale experi- June 1977 Fire Safety mental work on mobile homes. 2. Forward criteria for limit- Sept. 1977 ing fire growth to U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Room Fire Test 1. Complete development work Oct. 1976 on recommended practices. 2. Report submitted to model June 1977 building code group on standard test method. 3. Approvals by ASTM and code Dec. 1977 group. Detector Siting 1. Complete experimental work Sept. 1976 on detector siting. 2. Submit recommendations to May 1977 National Fire Protection Association Committees on Detection. 3. Secure NFPA approval. Nov. 1977 P. 5-4 Project Milestone Month Passed 4. Complete report and submit June 1977 to National Fire Prevention and Control Administration for broad public dissemi- nation. Toxicity Test 1. Review and analyze reports March 1977 Protocol from grantees at University of Utah, University of Pittsburgh, and Johns Hopkins University. 2. Draft preliminary protocol May 1977 and circulate for comment. 3. Publish recommended protocol Sept. 1977 and submit to ASTM Committee E-39. P. 6-1 OBJECTIVE NO. 6 RESIDENTIAL FIRE PROTECTION SYSTEMS 1. Proposed Objective. To develop the required systems performance specifications for a low-cost automatic residential fire alarm system and a fire suppression system, aimed at reducing residential fire deaths, injuries, and property losses. 2. Justification. About 86% of all fire deaths and approxi- mately one billion dollars of annual property losses are the results of residential fire incidents. Conse- quently, any program to reduce fire losses must make residential fire safety a top priority. Currently, expensive systems in commercial application show promise as a base for development of low-cost systems for residences. The first step toward production of such a system is to establish the systems performance requirements. 3. Approach. Three interlocking projects are being conducted to determine the specification requirements of both the suppression system and the alarm system. 1. Develop and test experimental automatic residential suppression system. An experimental suppression system will be developed and tested in a variety of live residential type fire incidents. The data collected will be evaluated and used to determine a part of the performance requirements of both the suppression system and the alarm system. 2. Estimate potential impact of automatic residential suppression systems and residential alarm systems against real fire incidents. The potential impact of automatic residential suppres- sion systems and automatic residential fire alarm systems will be evaluated against fire incidents involving fatalities in the State of Maryland. Each incident will be a separate case study which will be analyzed for "inputs" to the performance specifications. P. 6-2 3. Determine "user requirements" The "user requirements" of code officials, residents, landlords, builders and architects will be obtained through surveys, meetings and literature searches. These requirements will be added to the performance and physical requirements of the suppression and alarm systems. 4. Resources. The program will require $245,000 and 0.5 manyears. 5. Responsible Office. The Technology Development Program of the National Fire Safety and Research Office under the direction of Harry Shaw. 6. Milestones. 1. Develop and test experimental automatic residential system. a. select contractor (Factory Mutual) 7/76 b complete evaluation of current suppression technologies 10/76 C. start fabrication of experimental system 3/77 d. complete test program 5/77 e. final report from contractor will include evaluations of: 7/77 -- current suppression technologies -- performance of experimental system 2. Estimate potential impact of automatic residential suppression systems and residential alarm systems against real fire incidents. a. select contractor (APL) 7/76 b. review first group of case studies 12/76 C. review project approach and modify as necessary 12/76 P. 6-3 d. review second group of case studies 4/77 e. review third group of case studies 9/77 f. final report from contractor will include: 10/77 --analysis of the impact of automatic residential suppression systems and automatic fire alarm systems --significant performance aspects of each system required for maximum effectiveness. 3. Determine "user requirements". a. select contractor (Rolf Jensen, Inc.) 6/76 b. establish system requirements 12/76 C. establish system design concepts 1/77 d. final report from contractor will include the performance and physical requirements for the system 4/77 4. Develop performance specifications. a. prepare preliminary performance specifications 7/77 b. review preliminary performance specifications 9/77 C. prepare final performance specifications 10/77