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Digitized from Box Rie and.
SECRET SPOKE
August 9, 1974
ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION IN VIETNAM
KEY POINTS
-- The Communists have increased the level of their military
action in South Vietnam and are likely to increase it
further in the near future.
-- We do not believe, however, that a coordinated, countrywide
offensive similar to that of 1972 is in the offing for the
remainder of 1974.
-- But whatever Hanoi's present plans, it must be recognized that
developments throughout South Vietnam over the past few months
have placed South Vietnam in a more vulnerable position.
-- If the North Vietnamese perceive that the battlefield situation
is turning in their favor and/or that the US is no longer
willing to come to Saigon's defense, they might be tempted to
undertake even heavier action and take greater risks to make
major gains in South Vietnam. It would take several weeks
from time of decision for the North Vietnamese to prepare for
a large-scale offensive, and we would obtain advance indi-
cations of their preparations during this period.
Presidential Library Review of DOS Equities is Required
SECRET SPOKE
FORD
Approved For Release 2005/09/21 : NLF-CODEWORD-30-14-2-1
joint
Document source description
This item is a National Security Council memorandum from William L. Stearman to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
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"ocrText": "Digitized from Box Rie and.\nSECRET SPOKE\nAugust 9, 1974\nASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION IN VIETNAM\nKEY POINTS\n-- The Communists have increased the level of their military\naction in South Vietnam and are likely to increase it\nfurther in the near future.\n-- We do not believe, however, that a coordinated, countrywide\noffensive similar to that of 1972 is in the offing for the\nremainder of 1974.\n-- But whatever Hanoi's present plans, it must be recognized that\ndevelopments throughout South Vietnam over the past few months\nhave placed South Vietnam in a more vulnerable position.\n-- If the North Vietnamese perceive that the battlefield situation\nis turning in their favor and/or that the US is no longer\nwilling to come to Saigon's defense, they might be tempted to\nundertake even heavier action and take greater risks to make\nmajor gains in South Vietnam. It would take several weeks\nfrom time of decision for the North Vietnamese to prepare for\na large-scale offensive, and we would obtain advance indi-\ncations of their preparations during this period.\nPresidential Library Review of DOS Equities is Required\nSECRET SPOKE\nFORD\nApproved For Release 2005/09/21 : NLF-CODEWORD-30-14-2-1\njoint"
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