Memorandum, State Department Summary of Telegrams

OFFICE OF NLT (Naval Aide 1236 THE SECRETARY OF STATE DECLASSIFIED WASHINGTON State Dept. Guidelines, March 6, 1982 E.O. 12065, Sec. 3-402 August 29, 1951 By DEB NLT, Date 9-5-85 TOP SECRET SUMMARY OF TELEGRAMS EGYPT Embassy Cairo has submitted a joint UK-US intelligence estimate concerning the situation in Egypt. The estimate says that none of the present political leaders in Egypt would ever be coura- geous enough morally or physically to deviate from the slogans of "levacuation"1 or "unity", although the active feeling in support of these slogans is confined to the politically-conscious class, namely about one-fourth of the population. The discontent of the remainder of the population with their social and econ- omic conditions, however, could be focused on the "occupation". The estimate says that Egypt is likely to abrogate its 1936 treaty with the UK in the near future, and to declare that in the event of a major war Egypt would maintain her neutrality. This would gravely prejudice the usefulness of the Egyptian base and the wartime strategy of the Western Powers. It is regarded as axiomatic by the military authorities that there is no alternative to the Egyptian base in war time and that unless that base is in existence in peace time in a rapidly expansible form and is adequately defended from air attack, there is a grave risk that the Middle East may be lost. In order to preserve this base a minimum of cooperation on Egypt's part is essential. This necessary "minimum" cannot be obtained unless Egypt is, so far as appearances are concerned, placed on a basis of equality with the other powers participating in the proposed Middle Eastern defense organization. The estimate recommends that in an all-out effort to reach an agreement with Egypt a new approach should be made jointly by the UK and the US, and possibly by France, and should have the diplomatic sup- port of Turkey. Egypt's right to demand the withdrawal of the foreign troops would be recognized in return for her agreement to furnish defense facilities required by the Allied Command. The 1936 treaty should be replaced by a multilateral agreement to set up the command organization. Urgent consid- eration should be given to the political and military implications of our failure to reach an agreement and the consequent blow this would be to the war-time strategy of the Western Powers in the Middle East. TOP SECRET