Memorandum, State Department Summary of Telegrams

the OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE DECLASSIFIED WASHINGTON E.O. 12065, Sec. 3-402 State Dept. Guidelines, March 6, 1982 December 3, 1951 By, D-B NLT, Date 9-6-85 SECRET SECURITY INF ORMA TION SUMMARY OF TELEGRAMS EGYPT The British and American Ambassadors in Cairo have submitted a joint estimate of the currentpoli- tical situation in Egypt which contains, inter alia, the following conclusions: The Egyptian Government hastened abrogation of the Anglo-Egyptian - treaties for internal political reasons. It assumed that the effects of abrogation would cause the British to capitulate, as in Iran. Political opposition to the Wafd Government was temporarily silenced by the boldness of the move and the great popular support for abrogation, but now the realization is growing that the Government has failed in its initial purpose of forcing "evacuation" and "unity". The Government's method of implementing the policy of abrogation is a combination of administrative obstructionism, intimidation and incite - ment to terrorism. The army will do its best to continue to avoid involve - ment, but it would probably side with the King against the Wafd if there were an open rupture between them; the army and the police together could main- tain public order in Cairo and Alexandria but they could not cope with a si- multaneous insurrectionary movement in the provinces. Such a movement is unlikely at present but general discontent with social conditions is working toward an explosive point. If the Wafd fails to achieve the aims of abroga- tion, its failure to carry out its other promises to the public will become more glaring and may weaken it to the point that it cannot withstand the pressure. The King would like to get rid of the Wafd but he will apparently take no risks unless he is convinced that the only alternative is disaster to the country. SYRIA Shishikli yesterday made a full break with the constitution by naming himself Chief of State and dissolving Parliament. This action followed the resignation of the Presi- dent of the Republic Atasi who only the day before had signed the decrees and accepting the resignation of Dawalibinnaming Hamid Khuja as Prime Min- ister. The question of recognition is now posed and our Legation in Damascus has requested instructions from the Department. SECRET SECURITY INFORMATION