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46 SECRET of strengthening his own hand vis-à-vis the PRN, and should conservative anti-administra- popular Colonel Arana, who enjoyed wide army tion elements add their support to Giordani, support. Moreover, since Arana's assassina- he might be able to win over Arbenz in a fair tion, he has gained effective army support by election. However, pro-Arbenz groups should arranging the removal of some officers and the be in a position to control the electoral ma- financial rewarding of others. If elected, it is chinery. and this control, coupled with the likely that Arbenz will establish an adminis- aggressiveness of the leftists, will go far to tration (more conventional by Central Ameri- assure an Arbenz victory. can standards) in which graft, privilege, and 2. Subversive. arbitrary repressive measures are used to a greater degree than at present. In view of It is believed that the tolerant policies of the his background and his private remarks (both Arévalo administration, which have permitted official and otherwise), Arbenz appears to be Communists and Communist sympathizers to willing to grant favorable terms to business at operate within and without the government, the expense of labor. He has indicated that will be continued as long as Arévalo remains he is favorably disposed toward US interests in President. The activities of such persons rep- Guatemala, and, despite the anti-imperialism resent a continuing threat to US security. It of his present campaign supporters, it is be- is probable, however, that Communist influ- lieved that personal characteristics and possi- ence on Guatemalan government policies, par- ble governmental financial difficulties would ticularly domestic policies, will diminish in the lead him, as President, to welcome foreign in- future. This estimate is based on the follow- vestments and possibly foreign loans. If ing considerations: (1) Since about 1948, there elected, he will probably distribute favors for has been a slight trend away from the left. personal profit, will seek to subvert army and Oppositionists have emerged and have won labor leaders who oppose him, and will take seats in Congress; the FPL (largest of the rigorous action against those whom he cannot Arevalista parties) has moved away from the control. In contrast to Arévalo, Arbenz ap- leftist parties; the agrarian reform program pears to place a higher value on material than has not advanced, agitation by union organ- on social progress, and there is evidence that izers among coffee plantation workers has he plans, if elected, to initiate various con- diminished, the nationalized plantations have struction projects. It is likely that he will been put under a more business-minded ad- permit the labor organizations, established un- ministration which has opposed the labor der the Arévalo administration, to continue unions and the Ministry of Labor; the Produc- their activities, and that he will seek to use tion Development Institute (INFOP) has done labor as a personal political weapon, thereby much to promote and finance private agricul- establishing himself as an indispensable arbi- tural projects; labor problems have been more ter between labor, business, the army, and easily solved since mid-1949. (2) It is felt other factions. that the moderate and anti-Communist ele- In general, an Arbenz administration would ment in Guatemala, including the army, is probably be more conventional and more con- more adequately led and has greater repre- servative in actual practice than the present sentation and influence in government than administration. Should he be assassinated, it the extreme leftist element associated with the is likely that the leftist labor forces now sup- PAR and the labor unions. (3) The Guate- porting him would be opposed by the army as malan labor movement is young and poten- well as the popular majority and could neither tially weakened by an absence of capable labor seize nor maintain control of the government. leaders. The effectiveness of the present Of Arbenz' opponents, Dr. Victor M. Giordani, leadership, which is strongly influenced by candidate of the moderate leftist FPL (Frente Communism, is not SO much a measure of Popular Libertador) is the strongest competi- labor's coercive power as it is a measure of the tor for the presidency. The strength of the administration's desire to establish a labor FPL in Congress slightly surpasses the com- movement. Should a relatively few labor bined strength of the pro-Arbenz PAR and leaders be removed, their replacement would SECRET

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    "ocrText": "46\nSECRET\nof strengthening his own hand vis-à-vis the\nPRN, and should conservative anti-administra-\npopular Colonel Arana, who enjoyed wide army\ntion elements add their support to Giordani,\nsupport. Moreover, since Arana's assassina-\nhe might be able to win over Arbenz in a fair\ntion, he has gained effective army support by\nelection. However, pro-Arbenz groups should\narranging the removal of some officers and the\nbe in a position to control the electoral ma-\nfinancial rewarding of others. If elected, it is\nchinery. and this control, coupled with the\nlikely that Arbenz will establish an adminis-\naggressiveness of the leftists, will go far to\ntration (more conventional by Central Ameri-\nassure an Arbenz victory.\ncan standards) in which graft, privilege, and\n2. Subversive.\narbitrary repressive measures are used to a\ngreater degree than at present. In view of\nIt is believed that the tolerant policies of the\nhis background and his private remarks (both\nArévalo administration, which have permitted\nofficial and otherwise), Arbenz appears to be\nCommunists and Communist sympathizers to\nwilling to grant favorable terms to business at\noperate within and without the government,\nthe expense of labor. He has indicated that\nwill be continued as long as Arévalo remains\nhe is favorably disposed toward US interests in\nPresident. The activities of such persons rep-\nGuatemala, and, despite the anti-imperialism\nresent a continuing threat to US security. It\nof his present campaign supporters, it is be-\nis probable, however, that Communist influ-\nlieved that personal characteristics and possi-\nence on Guatemalan government policies, par-\nble governmental financial difficulties would\nticularly domestic policies, will diminish in the\nlead him, as President, to welcome foreign in-\nfuture. This estimate is based on the follow-\nvestments and possibly foreign loans. If\ning considerations: (1) Since about 1948, there\nelected, he will probably distribute favors for\nhas been a slight trend away from the left.\npersonal profit, will seek to subvert army and\nOppositionists have emerged and have won\nlabor leaders who oppose him, and will take\nseats in Congress; the FPL (largest of the\nrigorous action against those whom he cannot\nArevalista parties) has moved away from the\ncontrol. In contrast to Arévalo, Arbenz ap-\nleftist parties; the agrarian reform program\npears to place a higher value on material than\nhas not advanced, agitation by union organ-\non social progress, and there is evidence that\nizers among coffee plantation workers has\nhe plans, if elected, to initiate various con-\ndiminished, the nationalized plantations have\nstruction projects. It is likely that he will\nbeen put under a more business-minded ad-\npermit the labor organizations, established un-\nministration which has opposed the labor\nder the Arévalo administration, to continue\nunions and the Ministry of Labor; the Produc-\ntheir activities, and that he will seek to use\ntion Development Institute (INFOP) has done\nlabor as a personal political weapon, thereby\nmuch to promote and finance private agricul-\nestablishing himself as an indispensable arbi-\ntural projects; labor problems have been more\nter between labor, business, the army, and\neasily solved since mid-1949. (2) It is felt\nother factions.\nthat the moderate and anti-Communist ele-\nIn general, an Arbenz administration would\nment in Guatemala, including the army, is\nprobably be more conventional and more con-\nmore adequately led and has greater repre-\nservative in actual practice than the present\nsentation and influence in government than\nadministration. Should he be assassinated, it\nthe extreme leftist element associated with the\nis likely that the leftist labor forces now sup-\nPAR and the labor unions. (3) The Guate-\nporting him would be opposed by the army as\nmalan labor movement is young and poten-\nwell as the popular majority and could neither\ntially weakened by an absence of capable labor\nseize nor maintain control of the government.\nleaders. The effectiveness of the present\nOf Arbenz' opponents, Dr. Victor M. Giordani,\nleadership, which is strongly influenced by\ncandidate of the moderate leftist FPL (Frente\nCommunism, is not SO much a measure of\nPopular Libertador) is the strongest competi-\nlabor's coercive power as it is a measure of the\ntor for the presidency. The strength of the\nadministration's desire to establish a labor\nFPL in Congress slightly surpasses the com-\nmovement. Should a relatively few labor\nbined strength of the pro-Arbenz PAR and\nleaders be removed, their replacement would\nSECRET"
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