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jectives to conflict with US interests. In ad-
primarily a US responsibility. Because
vancing its claims to British Honduras it has
Guatemala's national welfare is dependent
worked to create pressure blocs within the
upon imports of non-strategic materials by
inter-American system and to embarrass the
the US, extreme dislocation of the economy
US as a "colonial" power; it has questioned
might occur in event of an East-West war,
the sincerity of US foreign policy, and on co-
with resultant political instability. Effective
lonial issues it has sometimes sided with the
guarantees of US economic aid in event of
USSR in UN disputes. Guatemala has also
war would therefore contribute materially to
sought to bring about the establishment of
the maintenance of a friendly and stable gov-
sympathetic governments in neighboring
ernment.
countries by giving aid to international revo-
Before the end of Arévalo's administration
lutionary movements.
in 1951, internal violence may break out be-
Although the positive contribution which
tween extreme leftist factions (backed by
Guatemala could make toward US security is
militant labor groups) and moderate-conserv-
slight, its geographic position makes it of con-
ative factions (backed by the army). In gen-
ceivable value to an enemy of the US. It
eral, it is believed that Arévalo is desirous of
could be used for propaganda dissemination
completing his legal term of office without
and espionage, or as a base for attacks against
incident and of abstaining from a display of
the Panama Canal, the Venezuelan oil fields,
partisanship in the 1950 presidential cam-
Caribbean shipping, or other potential West-
paign. This course will cause him to con-
ern Hemisphere targets. In general, however,
tinue the more moderate policy noticeable
its importance to an enemy is limited by the
since late 1949, and to avoid controversial de-
absence of military facilities of consequence
cisions. The national economy should re-
and the existence of other, more suitable (or
main sound, and no basic change in foreign
more easily obtainable) sites for bases in the
policy is anticipated, although a more con-
Caribbean area.
ciliatory attitude toward the US may develop
Nevertheless, a friendly and stable govern-
and effective aid to foreign revolutionaries
ment in Guatemala favors US security, and
may diminish. No change is foreseen in the
because Guatemala is incapable of defending
functions or capabilities of the armed forces
itself against a strong enemy, denial of its
or in the strategic significance of Guatemala
facilities and resources to an enemy power is
to the US.
SECRET
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"ocrText": "2\nSECRET\njectives to conflict with US interests. In ad-\nprimarily a US responsibility. Because\nvancing its claims to British Honduras it has\nGuatemala's national welfare is dependent\nworked to create pressure blocs within the\nupon imports of non-strategic materials by\ninter-American system and to embarrass the\nthe US, extreme dislocation of the economy\nUS as a \"colonial\" power; it has questioned\nmight occur in event of an East-West war,\nthe sincerity of US foreign policy, and on co-\nwith resultant political instability. Effective\nlonial issues it has sometimes sided with the\nguarantees of US economic aid in event of\nUSSR in UN disputes. Guatemala has also\nwar would therefore contribute materially to\nsought to bring about the establishment of\nthe maintenance of a friendly and stable gov-\nsympathetic governments in neighboring\nernment.\ncountries by giving aid to international revo-\nBefore the end of Arévalo's administration\nlutionary movements.\nin 1951, internal violence may break out be-\nAlthough the positive contribution which\ntween extreme leftist factions (backed by\nGuatemala could make toward US security is\nmilitant labor groups) and moderate-conserv-\nslight, its geographic position makes it of con-\native factions (backed by the army). In gen-\nceivable value to an enemy of the US. It\neral, it is believed that Arévalo is desirous of\ncould be used for propaganda dissemination\ncompleting his legal term of office without\nand espionage, or as a base for attacks against\nincident and of abstaining from a display of\nthe Panama Canal, the Venezuelan oil fields,\npartisanship in the 1950 presidential cam-\nCaribbean shipping, or other potential West-\npaign. This course will cause him to con-\nern Hemisphere targets. In general, however,\ntinue the more moderate policy noticeable\nits importance to an enemy is limited by the\nsince late 1949, and to avoid controversial de-\nabsence of military facilities of consequence\ncisions. The national economy should re-\nand the existence of other, more suitable (or\nmain sound, and no basic change in foreign\nmore easily obtainable) sites for bases in the\npolicy is anticipated, although a more con-\nCaribbean area.\nciliatory attitude toward the US may develop\nNevertheless, a friendly and stable govern-\nand effective aid to foreign revolutionaries\nment in Guatemala favors US security, and\nmay diminish. No change is foreseen in the\nbecause Guatemala is incapable of defending\nfunctions or capabilities of the armed forces\nitself against a strong enemy, denial of its\nor in the strategic significance of Guatemala\nfacilities and resources to an enemy power is\nto the US.\nSECRET"
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