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This file contains:
From Gordon Strachan to L. Higby. RE: National Journal Article on Polls--Andrew Glass. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/3/1971
From L. Higby to GS. RE: Message that reads, "Find out when to get the report to H by." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], no date
From Gordon Strachan to L. Higby. RE: National Journal Article on Polls--Andrew Glass. The last paragraph is noted as being disapproved by Haldeman. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/3/1971
Indecipherable handwritten note. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
An article from the National Journal entitled, "Political Report/Pollsters Prowl Nation As Candidates Use Opinion Surveys To Plan '72 Campaign." 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/14/1971
From William E. Timmons to Jeb Magruder. RE: '72 Democratic Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/3/1971
From W.E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: '72 Convention, and the 1,800 seats needing to be allocated. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/2/1971
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: The coordinated activities of the White House Staff and Nixon campaign for the '72 Convention. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1971
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: A rough list of White House staff members who may be attending the '72 Convention. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/3/1971
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/1. 6 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE: Message that reads, "MS- Waiting to see P." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note with a message that reads: "Roger Hays, Service Manager." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE: Message that reads, "Dent-Tom Evans meet today at 3." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Murray Chotiner to John Mitchell. RE: The possibility of using Lane Dwinell as the person to look after the President's activities in New Hampshire. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/19/1971
From Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman. RE: Governor Walter Peterson of New Hampshire. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/16/1971
A list of "State Assignments" that indicates what each state can do to contribute to the national election in '72. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Jeb Magruder to The Attorney General. RE: An enclosed copy of Andrew Glass' article on polling, and the 1972 campaign which made an appearance in the National Journal. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/27/1971
From Robert H. Marik to Jeb Magruder. RE: Polling Article by Andrew Glass in the National Journal- 8/14/1971. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/26/1971
An article from the National Journal entitled, "Political Report/Pollsters Prowl Nation as Candidates Use Opinion Surveys to Plan '72 Campaign." 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/14/1971
Handwritten note from Rita to Jeb that reads: "John okayed everything as proposed. I will come in full time in January…" 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Follow Up. RE: A check-in with Magruder concerning the description of the $350,000 RNC research project. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/15/1971
Indecipherable handwritten document dated 9/10. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
An expected attendance list of "The Philadelphia Society" in their national meeting held in Chicago. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], 4/10/1970
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26145904
label
WHSF: Contested, 26-4
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26145904
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 26-4
description
This file contains:
From Gordon Strachan to L. Higby. RE: National Journal Article on Polls--Andrew Glass. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/3/1971
From L. Higby to GS. RE: Message that reads, "Find out when to get the report to H by." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], no date
From Gordon Strachan to L. Higby. RE: National Journal Article on Polls--Andrew Glass. The last paragraph is noted as being disapproved by Haldeman. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/3/1971
Indecipherable handwritten note. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
An article from the National Journal entitled, "Political Report/Pollsters Prowl Nation As Candidates Use Opinion Surveys To Plan '72 Campaign." 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/14/1971
From William E. Timmons to Jeb Magruder. RE: '72 Democratic Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/3/1971
From W.E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: '72 Convention, and the 1,800 seats needing to be allocated. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/2/1971
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: The coordinated activities of the White House Staff and Nixon campaign for the '72 Convention. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1971
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: A rough list of White House staff members who may be attending the '72 Convention. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/3/1971
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/1. 6 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE: Message that reads, "MS- Waiting to see P." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note with a message that reads: "Roger Hays, Service Manager." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE: Message that reads, "Dent-Tom Evans meet today at 3." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Murray Chotiner to John Mitchell. RE: The possibility of using Lane Dwinell as the person to look after the President's activities in New Hampshire. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/19/1971
From Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman. RE: Governor Walter Peterson of New Hampshire. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/16/1971
A list of "State Assignments" that indicates what each state can do to contribute to the national election in '72. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Jeb Magruder to The Attorney General. RE: An enclosed copy of Andrew Glass' article on polling, and the 1972 campaign which made an appearance in the National Journal. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/27/1971
From Robert H. Marik to Jeb Magruder. RE: Polling Article by Andrew Glass in the National Journal- 8/14/1971. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/26/1971
An article from the National Journal entitled, "Political Report/Pollsters Prowl Nation as Candidates Use Opinion Surveys to Plan '72 Campaign." 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/14/1971
Handwritten note from Rita to Jeb that reads: "John okayed everything as proposed. I will come in full time in January…" 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Follow Up. RE: A check-in with Magruder concerning the description of the $350,000 RNC research project. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/15/1971
Indecipherable handwritten document dated 9/10. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
An expected attendance list of "The Philadelphia Society" in their national meeting held in Chicago. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], 4/10/1970
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
26
4
8/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to L. Higby. RE:
National Journal Article on Polls--Andrew
Glass. 1 pg.
26
4
White House Staff
Memo
From L. Higby to GS. RE: Message that
reads, "Find out when to get the report to H
by." 1 pg.
26
4
8/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to L. Higby. RE:
National Journal Article on Polls--Andrew
Glass. The last paragraph is noted as being
disapproved by Haldeman. 1 pg.
26
4
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten note. 1 pg.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Page 1 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
26
4
8/14/1971
Campaign
Newsletter
An article from the National Journal entitled,
"Political Report/Pollsters Prowl Nation As
Candidates Use Opinion Surveys To Plan '72
Campaign." 13 pgs.
26
4
9/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From William E. Timmons to Jeb Magruder.
RE: '72 Democratic Convention. 1 pg.
26
4
9/2/1971
Campaign
Memo
From W.E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: '72
Convention, and the 1,800 seats needing to
be allocated. 1 pg.
26
4
9/1/1971
Campaign
Memo
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman.
RE: The coordinated activities of the White
House Staff and Nixon campaign for the '72
Convention. 2 pgs.
26
4
9/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman.
RE: A rough list of White House staff
members who may be attending the '72
Convention. 6 pgs.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Page 2 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
26
4
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/1.
6 pgs.
26
4
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE:
Message that reads, "MS- Waiting to see P."
1 pg.
26
4
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten note with a
message that reads: "Roger Hays, Service
Manager." 1 pg.
26
4
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE:
Message that reads, "Dent-Tom Evans meet
today at 3." 1 pg.
26
4
8/19/1971
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Murray Chotiner to John Mitchell. RE:
The possibility of using Lane Dwinell as the
person to look after the President's activities
in New Hampshire. 1 pg.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Page 3 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
26
4
8/16/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman. RE:
Governor Walter Peterson of New
Hampshire. 1 pg.
26
4
Campaign
Other Document
A list of "State Assignments" that indicates
what each state can do to contribute to the
national election in '72. 8 pgs.
26
4
8/27/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Jeb Magruder to The Attorney
General. RE: An enclosed copy of Andrew
Glass' article on polling, and the 1972
campaign which made an appearance in the
National Journal. 1 pg.
26
4
8/26/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Robert H. Marik to Jeb Magruder. RE:
Polling Article by Andrew Glass in the
National Journal- 8/14/1971. 2 pgs.
26
4
8/14/1971
Campaign
Newsletter
An article from the National Journal entitled,
"Political Report/Pollsters Prowl Nation as
Candidates Use Opinion Surveys to Plan '72
Campaign." 8 pgs.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Page 4 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
26
4
White House Staff
Other Document
Handwritten note from Rita to Jeb that reads:
"John okayed everything as proposed. I will
come in full time in January. 1 pg.
26
4
8/15/1971
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Follow Up. RE: A
check-in with Magruder concerning the
description of the $350,000 RNC research
project. 1 pg.
26
4
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten document dated
9/10. 1 pg.
26
4
4/10/1970
Domestic Policy
Other Document
An expected attendance list of "The
Philadelphia Society" in their national
meeting held in Chicago. 3 pgs.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Page 5 of 5
Presidential Materials Review Board
Review on Contested Documents
Collection: H. R. Haldeman
Box Number: 305
Folder:
6 Campaign - Aug 13, Sept 17, Sept 18, 1971 [2 of 2]
Document
Disposition
69
Return Private/Political Memo Street 1 Higby 8-3-71
70
Retain
Open
71
Return
Private/Political Memo in 9.3.71
72
Return
Private/Political Memo Timmons to HRH 9-2-71
73
Return
Private/Political Memo, Timmons to HRS 3-1-71
74
Return
Private/Political Memo, Timmone to HRN 3-3-71
75
Retain
Open
76
Return
Private/Political Noins, Stars. K, workburn 4-1-3-15
77
Return
Private/Political Memo, Chotra to Mitchell 8-19-71
78
Return
Private/Political Memo M. HRH 8-16-71
79
Retain
Open
80
Return
Private/Political Paper, "State Assime
81
Return
Private/Political Memo Magnider idea to the the AG, 8-2-21
82
Return
Private/Political Note F.:, - to :- provider nd
83
Retain
Open
his
Polls
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
chwn
Administratively Confidential
August 3, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
L. HIGBY
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
National Journal Article
on Polls -- Andrew Glass
Dr. Derge called me this morning at 11:30 a.m. to report
that he had just received a call from Andrew Glass of the
National Journal who told Derge's secretary that he was
doing an article for the Journal on polls and would there-
fore like to talk with Dr. Derge. Dr. Derge refused to
talk to him but called me to advise of the fact that
Glass had tried to reach him.
Andrew Glass called me at 1:10 p.m. and I, too, did not
take the call.
A check with Ed Harper indicates that he knows Andrew
Glass but had not received a call from him recently.
Apparently Andrew Glass recently did an article for the
National Journal on revenue sharing and gave the Adminis-
tration a very rough going over. Harper reports that
Andrew Glass breached an agreement with Jamie McLane on
revenuing sharing as he was not to directly quote Mr.
McLane.
Checks with Ken Cole's office and John Campbell's office
indicate that they have not received calls from Andrew
Glass. Neither you nor Mr. Haldeman have received calls.
A check with Tom Benham, however, indicates that he talked
with Andrew Glass about a week ago for 15-20 minutes. The
story Benham gives me is that Andrew Glass called him in
the regular course of his calls to Gallup and Harris, etc.,
about political polling. Benham reports that he reviewed
his involvement in past campaigns but he emphasizes that he
did not disclose Dr. Derge's name nor mine. According to
Benham, the National Journal article will be out in one week.
Bruce says our only contact at National Journal is Bonafede
and that requests to him go through Ziegler's office.
Should I have Ziegler's office contact Mr. Bonafede about
Andrew Glass' article?
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
To : ys
From :
L. Higby
Fevel out obese 6
got their the 6
report to H by
5:00P.M
L
august S, ____
GORDS
SUBJUCT:
on 61.2
Dr. CALLER
L.C
11:00
STATE to MAC just received CODE IN
to bold
coing on article for CODE
O.
MONO like to
WITH
DL.
-
Dogo
think to NEW Due
me
TEDO
OF
SINCE ==== EVIDE LC
Client
SENIC CAD call.
WITH
1.0
10001
C...
270
V3I
sevenuing sharting
to grow
follows.
Checks with Ken Color:
Com Completing CHECK
indicate that they have not COILS drow
Class. Neither you nor
MA
have received Date
extract.
check with
Denitary
with Andrew Class about -
= from 15-20
story DONNER SEVES : C 13 =
Charge called
the regular controc of 111
=0 and
shout politica
olling.
that no I'M
1120 involvenent in Date C a
NO
CLC not chocic J. Code
now
time.
Denham, the
THE
fruce syan CUR
COLICA
Au
and that request
to
11
Should X have
contact
Mr.
Andrew Glass' directe?
- H INDICATED NO TO THES QUESTION
05.1n
have/referred someboday,
we ddnt do any WH polling
Evans -be Boltreteurned call-marik+ Ge- Oid not
that WH did + reffered to J8M.
Maguder- return call; cwc -type of staff; not all nomes; knows little
2 ne Security at ats;
Glass at ats for
Xhanile-
few hours waiting
per 58m.
Denge-
Benaam
o'neill
Grassmuck- doesn't anere of an Glass
Descriptive WHinho guess: Gres 1701,
Flan- not mentioned
amaging
no paper beef only 5 of 6 venders.
- market Facts
- no mention of Flon
"Peter Flan op"then changed to Cit's
Political Report/Pollsters prowl nation as candidates
use opinion surveys to plan 72 campaign
by Andrew 1. Glass
From the White House to small-town
secreey, currently is seeking to define
"You're finding more people run-
8/14/71
1693
NATIONAL
America, the political pollsters are
polling needs for Mr. Nixon's 1972
ning for political office with less polit-
JOURNAL
once more on the prowl.
carapaign.
ical experience than ever before. So
© CPR 1971
A National Journal survey of po-
In addition, the President requests
they really don't have an intuitive base
litical pollsters and their clients reveals
and receives regular "weathervane"
of how well they'll do. They don't
that the business-which, like politics
polls that are commissioned for him
have the knowledge of their state that
itself, is as much an art as a science-
by friends and admirers. mainly in the
a guy who has been in politics a long
is deeply rooted in the campaign proc-
business world. Similar polls were
time has. But they know enough that
ess. It revealed also that many can-
taken on a regular basis for Presidents
they need to know. So the pollsters
didates still are reluctant to say pub-
Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson.
are all selling."
licly how heavily they rely on polls.
But the political polling profession
At its higher rungs. the polling pro-
Like people who never walk under
does not subsist alone on surveys
fession remains a tight-knit group. It
ladders even though they say they are
taken by the White House or by the
divides, almost equally, into those
not superstitious. candidates go on
President's Democratic rivals.
who poll only for Republicans. those
buying the polls. With the approach
Robert Teeter, the White Hous
who poll only for Democrats and those
of the 1972 national elections, spend-
liaison man for Detroit-based Market
who poll for both.
ing for political surveys is likely to
Opinion Research, a Republican-ori-
But, as pollster Michael Rowan
match or exceed 1968 levels.
ented polling firm. said: "One of the
said. "we're all one club."
In his book. Financing the 1968
big changes we're seeing is the level
Nixon
Election (D.C. Heath and Company,
down to which polling is used.
1971). Herbert E. Alexander estimated
"It used to be that there were a few
In seeking the Presidency in 1968,
that spending for public opinion polls
sophisticated gubernatorial and sena-
Richard Nixon spent about $500,000
for all candidates at all levels in 1968
tonal campaigns using it. Now. almost
for the longest, most costly and most
came to $6 million.
all of them are in it. Many Congress-
complex polling project in campaign
The estimate, based on 1,200 polls
men use it. And it pops up in state
history. Although there is no real
which cost an average of $5.000. is
legislatures and in city races."
battle for the nomination in sight. the
conservative. one comprehensive state-
Oliver A. Quayle III. who has taken
Nixon White House has budgeted
ide poll can cost $15,000.
polis for most of the Democrats now
$500.000 for polling research for the
Top to bottom: The White House re-
in the Senate, said: "It's now almost
1972 ampaign.
ceives a steady stream of public opin-
SOP. 11 you're interested in what
Organization: In the White House it-
ion survey results. Some of them are
people think, this is the best way to
self, the gathering of poll information
commissioned. directly or indirectly,
find out People who have never
is supervised by H. R. Haldeman, the
by the White House itself: others re-
polled before are polling now. It's
President's chief of staff, who has
sult from "piggybacking" adding
standard procedure.
background in advertising and market
questions to polls already commis-
The "new breed": A veteran Demo-
research. (For a report on Haldeman,
sioned by Republican candidates or to
cratic campaign manager believes the
see No. 10, p. 513.)
polls taken for other purposes.
polisters' growth is based in part on a
Campaign planning beyond the
A campaign task force, working in
new breed of politician. As he put it:
White House gates is being handled
ANALYST
POLL
TAKER
PUBLICIANS
1694
8/14/71
NATIONAL
JOURNAL
Gallup and Harris: The Published National Polls
© CPR 1971
The chart at top right traces
per cent
President Nixon's shifts in popu-
70
larity, as measured by the Gallup
approve
GALLUP
Poll. On each occasion, some 1,500
persons. the normal national sam-
60
ple, responded to the question: "Do
you approve or disapprove of the
way Nixon is handling his job as
50
President?"
The bottom chart covers the
same time period and traces the
trend in trial heats between Mr.
40
Nixon and Sen. Edmund S. Mus-
kie, D-Maine, as measured by the
30
Harris Survey. (Gov. George C.
disapprove
Wallace, D-Ala., was included in
the trial heats: his support ranged
20
from 9 to 13 per cent.)
Dots along the lines show the
dates of the surveys. Parallel gray
bands show the maximum extent of
10
1969
1970
1971
sample error.
George II. Gallup and Louis
Harris respectively head the only
70
HARRIS
polling organizations that regularly
publish political survey results on a
national scale. Both Gallup and
60
Harris maintain extensive private
Nixon
polling operations. which account
for the bulk of their revenues. They
50
do not accept political clients.
The Gallup Poll, first published
in 1935. now is syndicated and goes
40
Muskie
twice a week to some 100 U.S.
newspaper clients. The Gallup
Opinion Index. a 32-page booklet
30
that is published monthly, offers
detailed breakdowns of Gallup
20
polling data. It has about 1,000
subscribers.
The Harris Survey, syndicated
by the Chicago Fribune. goes to
10
1969
1970
1971
125 U.S. newspaper clients The
Harris column first appeared in
ing with undecided voters and non-
tion near the close and another di-
1963 and is mailed twice a week 10
voters. The variations in their tech-
rect question at the close. The
subscribers. Harris also polls for
niques, along with sample error,
Gallup Poll asks one sccret "ballot
Time Inc. He plans to publish a
account for the spread between
box" question early in the inter-
hardback, 500-page Harris Survey
their estimates.
view.
Yearbook, which will carry data on
he Gallup Poll samples all
The Gallup Poll is prepared in
which his column is based.
adults of voting age and then c\-
Princeton, N.J., by the American
The normal lag between inter-
cludes likely nonvoters. The Harris
Institute of Public Opinion. a firm
views and publication in newspa-
Survey does not interview people
headed by Gallup.
pers for both Harris and Gallup is
who say they are not registered and
The Harris Survey is prepared in
two to three week
excludes them from its sample. A
New York by Louis Hurris and As-
In forecasting Presidential elee-
further exclusion of unlikely voters
sociates Inc. The Harris firm was
tions. both Gallup and Harris
is made later.
bought in 1970 by Donaldson, Le-
strive to minimize the undecided
The Harris interviews normally
kin and Jennerette Inc., a stock
vote in their interpretations and to
last 90 minutes. Persons are asked
brokerage firm which is publicly
base their predictions upon esti-
for their Presidential preference
owned. The sale was for 80,000
mates of voter turnout on election
three times in the course of the in-
shares of voting common stock,
day. The two pollsters, however,
terview: a direct question at the
worth about $720,000 at current
employ differing n-ethods in deal-
start. a secret "ballot box" ques-
market prices.
:
by Citizens for the Reelection of the
The President and his top staff also
1968 for Mr. Nixon mounted by
8/14/71
1695
NATIONAL
President, which is, in effect, a White
have access to other private polls, con-
Joseph Bachelder, who has since re-
JOURNAL
House political task force: by the Re-
ducted for Republican senatorial or
tired as a political polling consultant.
© CPR 1971
publican National Committee: and by
gubernatorial candidates as well as by
Decision Making Information Inc.,
Attorney General John N. Mitchell.
political pressure groups friendly to
based in Santa Ana and Los Angeles,
A coordinating committee is shap-
the Nixon Administration. These polls
which polled in 1970 for both Gov.
ing the campaign research effort,
are supplied without charge: the Chil-
Ronald Reagan, R-Calif,, and Gov.
which will rely heavily on public opin-
ton surveys are underwritten by the
Nelson A. Rockefeller, R-N.Y.
ion surveys.
Republican National Committee.
Market Oninion Research of
The committee includes Jeb S.
A pollster who declined to be quot-
Detroit. which advised George Rom-
Magruder. who has been detached
ed by name said, "A lot of the (White
ney early in 1968 10 scuttle his cam-
from the office of Herbert G. Klein,
House) work that was done in the past
paign for the Republican Presidential
director of communications for the
three years was done by individual
nomination. The company has done
executive branch, to manage the "Cit-
candidates who were doing it as an
some weathervane polling after Mr.
izens" operation: Robert Marrick.
accommodation."
Nixon's television appearances
Magruder's associate in the "Citizens"
The White House intends to repay
Opinion Research Corp of Prince-
office: Gordon Strachan. a personal
some of these favors during the 1972
ton. N.J., which handled the 1960 and
staff assistant to Haldeman, and Ed-
campaign. A Presidential aide speak-
1968 Nixon campaigns, as well as the
ward S. DeBolt, the RNC's deputy
ing for "background said: "When
1964 Presidential campaign of Sen.
chairman for research and political
Nixon is ready to go into an area, an
Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz. (ORC's
organization.
offer for a 'piggyback' (poll) will be
billings from political clients in 1968
The Nixon campaign steering com-
made. I think in almost every case, it
amounted to $600,000-$450.000 from
mittee also is utilizing an outside con-
will be the Nixon White House that
the Nixon campaign.)
sultant on polling techniques-David
will offer it down rather than its being
David Derge although a regular
R. Deree 42. a political scientist and
offered up (to the President),"
White House visitor did not attend
executive vice president of the Uni-
Campaign firms: The White House
the presentation sessions. which were
versity of Indiana in Bloomington.
scheduled a series of meetings Aug.
held in the offices of the "Citizens"
Magruder is the key polling plan-
9-11 to review the capabilities of more
group, one block from the White
net. As Harry S. Dent, special counsel
than a half-dozen Republican-oriented
House. Derge is known to be a strong
to the President for political affairs.
polling firms.
portisan of ORC.
put it: "In this shop, Jeb is the guy
"All of them were approached with
Split verdict: A decision on the allo-
who's the polling man."
the idea of contributing 10 the cam-
cation of polling resources for the
Magruder declined to comment for
paign as a sole or prime contractor."
campaign is expected to be submitted
publication on polling or on any other
said a White House political aide
to the President for his review and
aspect of White House campaign
"But it's not inconceivable that
approval by the end of August,
planning. One official, who asked to
Haldeman will decide 'I don't want
Whether or not a prime polling con-
be identified only as an Administra-
any one person to know everything. so
tractor is chosen. a White House of-
tion spokesman. said: "We don't want
I'm going to parcel it out and these
ficial said that polling arrangements
to get into even what we're thinking
people can just like it. He's like that
for the 1972 campaign may not enierge
about doing. They (the Democrats)
Another White House official noted
in a clear-ent manner.
know something is going on. Let them
that "the Nixon campaign is being or-
The official said: "Knowing the
Find out by working for it."
ganized on a priority basis and there-
President, he never puts all his mar-
White House pulls: Mr. Nixon has
fore the need for national pollsters is
bles in one basket He will want
had access to a steady stream of pri-
minimized." The emphasis, he said,
additional head-to-head and special-
vate polling information since he took
will be on disregarding those states
issue polling.
office. These polls have kept the Pres.
where there is "no opportunity" and
"He never even tells anybody about
di-
ident abreast of domestic political
concentrating on the big electoral
it. But you always have somebody on
The
moods and furnished him with insights
states "which will either win or lose
the side who will do a weathervane
into changing trends on such questions
the election for us."
sampling after a (Presidential) night
as the public attitude toward admis-
Each of the polling concerns which
on television That's just Nixon.
sion of the People's Republic of China
made presentations to the White
All of us get used 10 that There's al-
in
10 the United Nations.
House was screened in advance by
ways an edge."
An almost continuous polling effort
Haldeman The group includes:
Another White House official who
firm
for the White House has been con-
Cambridge Opinion Studies Inc.,
will be involved in the campaign, also
ducted, in secrecy. by Chilton Re-
headed by Tully Plesser and based in
speaking privately, said that, in all
111
search Services. of Philadelphia. a di-
New York City, Plesser's political
probability. some of the more sensi-
14
vision of Chilton Co. An unle to the
polling assignments have ranged from
live polling results will 20 to the Pres-
was
President said. "The outside pollster
Sen. W. E. Brock's successful cam-
ident directly, perhaps through Halde-
Lu-
(John 11. Kofron. Chilton's senior vice
paign in Tennessee last year to John
man. without being circulated to the
president) consults almost always di-
V. Findsay uphill mayoral campaign
White House political
rectly with Haldeman, although on .1
in New York in 1969.
"There are some things- like how
11
nonsensitive matter he may fall. with
Chilton Research Services. which
does Agnew affect the ticket that
Strachan or Highs 11 awrence M
conducts surveys by telephone from
might be asked that even Mitchell
Tight is Haldeman's administrative
Philadelphia. Chilton also handled the
won't get." the official said. (Mr.
assistant
mechanics of an intelligence client In
Nixon's choice of Spiro T. Agnew as
1696
8 71
NATIONAL
A Candidate Looks at His Polls
JOU
CPR
In an interview with National
professionals in this business that
Journal. Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey,
have a great professional reputation
D-Minn, reflected upon the role
at stake.
that po.!s played in his unsuccessful
1968 Presidential campaign and in
In 1970. we used polling very ef-
his 1970 Senate campaign:
fectively. I started early. In fact we
had one of our early polls in hand
In 1968. we were SO damned
months before I even declared. We
short of money that we didn't use
took it simply to see what the re-
polls as much as I think we should
actions might be and what the is-
have. Had we used them a little
sues might be,
better. 1 think I might have been a
In other words. I wanted to
little more effective.
know myself: Did I have political
Which is another way of saying.
strength and where did I have it?
if you're not just looking at how
Then, we also had in that first
popular you are as a candidate. but
(Oliver A.) Quayle poll a number of
rather are using the polls to base
issues that we wanted to get a re-
your public attitudes on public is-
sponse 10.
sues, I think you can become a
One of the things that I found
more effective candidate. You at
in the polls, for example, that al-
least have the means of being one.
ways intrigued me was the tre-
mendous support we had among
The polls can also show your
young people-running as high as
areas of weakness It gives you
80 per cent support within this
time, If you take them early enough,
group. ! didn't believe at first I
to repair those areas if it's at all
could have so much support in the
possible. It aiso shows your areas
21-25-year-old group. But it
of strength that you can to sure of
became obvious afterwards that I
and other areas that you need to
did.
buttress and maintain.
I noticed that when we'd go into
It takes time to do polling that's
neighborhood, where there were
effective. If we had the time and
many young married couples how
the money. no would have been
well we would do with them. In
much better off, particularly where
the elections. the young married
Hubert 11. Humphrey
it comes 10 issues.
couples stuck with us. so the poils
For example, I know that in '68
verified themselves.
tion of whether he likes you or not.
we had some gut reactions on the
It builds a bundwagon effect It
law-and-order issue. But we didn't
Also, you would think in a state
creates a political atmosphere.
have an in-depth understanding of
like mine, in Minnesota, that the
its intensity. Even though I worked
apricultural and economic issues
Actually, the polices of polls
at it. I didn't start early enough. I
might be paramount.
can be most important of all.
also think we might have been able
But we found that there were
If they're favorable to you. or if
to detect age-group differences and
other issues that were much more
they show you with a trend-even
how each group reacts.
overriding than merely the eco-
if you're not ahead-if the trend
nomic issue. Like the law-and-order
seems to be coming your way. then
It's all a question of what you
issue. for example. And we acted
it has a tendency to build its own
ask for. And what you Jsk for is
on that information.
momentum.
oftentimes determined not only by
It really is almost better than
what you want but what you can af-
So. I'm a great believer in the use
spot announcements (commercials)
ford
of polls as a providing that
on television. It's a kind of political
In order to use polls really ef-
you're willing to spend the money
advertising in as own right.
fectively, you need 10 take a series
to get a first-class job. You must
of them in depth.
not deal with amateurs in this busi-
As Humphres noted in connection
The man or the firm that does
ness.
with his 1968 campaign, an impor-
that kind of polling has to be very
1 think John Kennedy used polls
tant Test of a Presidential campaign
sophisticated in terms of the kind
very effectively When he got a poll
IS the pth and breadth of 111 re-
of cue-tions which evene honest.
that was J plas for him. he used it
searcheffort-which. to a large de-
objective answers. You've got to
to build further support.
gree. relies on public opinion vir-
be careful that you den't set up
I think this can he done today.
vews. The Senator to vet has not
questions that give yes answers
If a counts chairman sees you're
commissioned any new polls to rext
that you want.
ahead in the polis. he tends to say,
the appeal of his candidacy for
So you really have to deal with
"Well, he can win." It isn't a ques-
President in 1972.
8/14/71
his Vice Presidential running mate in
1697
NATIONAL
1968 was influenced by ORC polls
Establishing the Tolerances
JOURNAL
which showed him running better
© CPR 1971
alone than with any possible "name"
Pollsters commonly encounter skeptical members of campaign teams
in the Republican Party. Mr. Nixon
who suggest that by interviewing more people-or perhaps another set of
decided to bypass better-known per-
people- the pollster would have produced different results.
sonalities for Agnew, who was then
George H. Gallup, founder of the Gallup Poll and now semi-retired.
Governor of Maryland.)
has an answer for these skeptics: "The next time you go to the doctor for
Utility: Although White House of-
a test. why not have him test all your blood?"
ficials seek to dampen publicity on
Gallup says that "no major poll in the history of this country ever went
their polling efforts, they say privately
wrong because too few people were reached.' But, he says. many have
that polling information. while in
gone astray because of the way those persons were selected.
plentiful supply. does not play a crit-
Samples: Some political pollsters, including Gallup, interview people in
ical role in White House political de-
randomly chosen clusters. using what is known as a probability sample.
cision making.
(For his nationwide poll. Gallup conducts about five interviews in each of
"Nixon has never had much use for
320 voting precincts. chosen on a random basis.)
polls," a personal friend of the Pres-
Others use a quota sample, a less costly technique in which people are
sident said. "He only pays attention
chosen to be interviewed on the basis of specific characteristics in the
when they happen to agree with his
same proportion as they appear in the population or whatever "universe"
gut feelings. And he likes situations
the pollster is studying. If 12 per cent of the "universe" is Negro. for ex-
where the polls do not put him under
ample, a quota sample would include 12 Negroes in every 100 people
pressure, such as his Agnew decision
interviewed.
of 1968."
Gallup and other published pollsters abandoned quota samples after
A GOP official agreed with this
1948 when polls taken that way indicated that Thomas E. Dewey would
assessment and added: "Most of those
defeat Harry S ruman in the Presidential race.
people (the White House staff) just
Error: A probability sample permits the pollster to measure sample error
look at the head-to-head results-at
-the maximum extent to which the survey results may differ from a sur-
just two numbers. It's very sad. Most
vey of the entire population. Quota samples do not permit statistical
of them just flip to the last page (of
measurement of error.
the polling report) to see, in summary,
The tables below indicate the range of error for samples of various
how we are doing."
sizes. Statistically, the error will be no larger than the figures in the tables
Democrats
95 per cent of the time. As the figures indicate. the size of the sample must
be increased as much as four times to cut the margin of error by half.
Of Mr. Nixon's potential Demo-
Table I shows the maximum error-plus and minus-in probability
cratic opponents in 1972. only the cur-
samples of varying sizes and division. The larger the sample, the smaller
rent front-runner. Sen. Edmund S.
the error: the more evenly people divide. the higher the possible error.
Muskie, of Maine, is now engaged in
In comparing two percentage results, another question arises: How
polling research. Most of the other.
large must the difference be for it to reflect a genuine distinction, beyond
not.
Democratic Presidential hopefuls have
It
the range of statistical error?
so far given little or no thought to
Tables 11 and III show the number of percentage points to be dis-
commissioning public opinion surveys
counted in comparing differences in polls. Table 11 is used for percentages
for their campaigns.
polls
near 20 (or lower) and 80 (or higher): Table 111 is used for percentages
Muskie
"People have been waiting
near 50.
around for our polls before moving,
or
if
Thus. if 50 per cent of those interviewed in 1969 and 40 per cent in 1971
said Anna Navarro. 24. the Mush ie
responded in the same way to a question, Table III can be consulted to
even
campaign's full-time polling consult-
trend
determine whether the difference is statistically meaningful.
ant. "The question is how to project
then
what people want 10 see."
Table I
(size of sample)
1,500
1,000
750
600
400
200
100
own
An initial round of telephone-
Results near 10%
2
2
3
3
4
5
7
interview polling for Muskie was com-
Results near 20's
2
3
4
4
5
7
9
than
pleted in late July by Independent
Results near 30%
3
4
4
4
6
8
10
reials)
Research Associates Inc a Wash-
Results near 40%
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
ington-based firm headed by William
Results near 50
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
Results near 60%
3
4
4
R. Hamilion, who has worked mainly
5
6
8
11
Results near 70
3
4
4
4
6
8
10
for Democrats in the South. Before
Results near 60'h
2
3
4
4
S
7
9
joining the Muskie staff in January.
Results near 90%
2
2
3
3
4
5
7
Miss Navarro worked for Hamilton.
paign
Media- W hile it is unusual to have
Table II: Percentages near 20, 80
Table III: Percentages near 50
"I'-
a polister on a campaign staff, Miss
sample
1,500
750
600
400
200
sample
1,500
750
600
400
200
de-
Navarro said she felt the arrangement
1,500
4
4
5
6
8
1,500
5
5
6
7
10
sur-
benefited the Senator. She N.W her
750
4
5
5
6
8
750
5
6
7
7
10
not
600
role as the "reatist" the person who
5
5
6
6
8
600
6
7
7
7
10
rest
408)
6
6
6
7
8
400
7
7
7
8
10
must "knock down theories and pre-
for
200
8
8
8
8
10
200
10
10
10
10
12
sent unpated de new
:
In that capacity. Miss Navarro has
SOURC Paul K. Ferry, president of The Gallup Organization
:
1698
NATIONAL
JOURNAL
The Ethical Dilemma: Politicians VS. Pollsters
CPR
In the spring 1963 issue of Public
demic members, issued a standard
ments as to 'what the polls are
Opinion Quarterl. Louis Harris
"which news media can utilize
showing while encouraging "the
wrote: "The pollster who is knowl-
when reporting poll results." Each
reporting of whose poll using which
edgeable about politics will inevita-
of these news reports, AAPOR
methods and (abtaining) what re-
bly be invited 10 sit in on strategy
said, should include:
sults."
meetings (He, will more and
the identity of the survey's spon-
NCPP: In April 1968. George H.
more be in a position of recom-
sors:
Gallup invited some 25 pollsters
mending when and how many polls
a description of the sample, in-
10 attend an organizational meet-
should be conducted for his client,
cluding its size;
ing in Santa Barbara, Calif., on the
rather than simply waiting for the
an indication of the allowance
eve of the annual AAPOR confer-
political powers-that-be to call
that should be made for sample
ence. The session led to formation
him and set the time etable."
error:
of the National Council on Public
Harris was writing from experi-
a report on which results, if any,
Polls, which at present has 16 mem-
once. In October 1959. he was one
are based on only parts of the total
ber organizations.
of nine men who met with John F.
sample (For example, some poll re-
NCPP dues are $100 a year for
Kennedy to plan Kennedy's 1960
sults may represent interviews only
membership. The group's current
Presidential campaign. (Harris
with those persons who are likely to
president is Robert T. Bower.
went on to take polls for the Dem-
vote.):
director of the Bureau of Social
ocratic National Committee until
a statement of technique-
Science Reseirch, Washington,
he started a newspaper column in
whether the interviewing was done
D.C. Its trustees are three pell-
1963.1
in person, by telephone, by mail or
sters-Gallup, Harris and Archi-
Yet, a deep involvement with a
on street corners:
bald M. Crossley and Richard M.
candidate's fortunes raises an eth-
a statement on the timing of the
Scammon, director of the Election
ical dilemnia for some pollsters,
interviews, putting them in con-
Research Center of the Govern-
especially those who consider them-
text with relevant events.
mental Affairs Institute.
selves social scientists. seeking to
The AAPOR code applies both
"As of not Bower said, "there
discover what motivates people.
to polls which are prepared for
is no evidence that a 'bandwagon
rather than camraign consultants.
publication and to polls taken for a
effect." induced by polls, influences
seeking to get their candidate elect-
private client whose results sub-
the result of elections.
ed.
sequently are publicized.
The group will issue a quarterly
One pollster. Mervin Field, noted
AAPOR members elect a stand-
newsletter, starting this fall. aimed
in a 1967 speech before his col-
ards committee, which is charged
at journalists and other users of
leagues that "there is an implicit
with investigating complaints of
polls. As vet another way of pro-
pressure to use the (polling) re-
misuse of polls. It is currently
moting more sophisticated evalua-
search for other than purely objec-
studying allegations of irregulari-
tions. NCPP plans to sponsor sem-
tive fact gathering It is used to con-
ties in published polis taken during
inars for Senate aides, political
vince financial backers. to encour-
the Democratic mayoral primary in
managers and newsmen, at which
age party workers, to bolster the
Philadelphia earlier this year.
polling techniques will be analyzed.
confidence of the candidate, to
No individual ever has been cited
Legislation: There have been a few
freeze out potential opponents and
by the standards committee for mis-
attempts to chact laws to regulate
to support existing biases."
conduct. although the panel occa-
polling. but n nc has succeeded.
In this climate. Field vaid. a ma-
sionally has met privately with poll-
Rep. Lucien N. Nedzi. D-Mich.,
jor problem can urise over "the se-
sters whose conduct was under ques-
is sponsoring a Truth-in-Polling
lective use of certain findings to
tion. AAPOR's governing body. an
Act (TIR 5003). which has been
create a misleading impression."
executive council, is empowered to
referred to the House Administra-
Thus, "there are leaks to newsmen
warn by a citation or to expel mem-
tion Committee.
for "background. and leaks to the
hers. but it has never done so. Sid-
The provisions of the Nedzi bill
opposition to lul: them or to steer
ney Hollander Jr., a member of the
parallel those of the AAPOR and
them in a direction that will help
AAPOR council and former chair-
NCPP codes (In one respect, the
(the client)."
man of its standards committee.
bill goes further by requiring public
AAPOR: In an effort to minimize
said: "The mood of the organiza-
filing of the percentage of inter-
unethical conduct. the American
tion is changing and they're in a
views in the total sample that were
Association for Public Orinion Re-
position to Fe much tougher."
completed and the percentage of
search. founded in 1947. has set
Irving Crispi, executive vice pres-
persons in the sample who refused
standards for reporting pull results.
ident of The Gallup Organization
to be interviewed.)
An AAPOR code of ethics,
and also a former chairman of the
In March 1963. a bill aimed at
adopted in 1960. calls upon mem-
AAPOR standards committee,
rigorous cortrol of the publication
bers to monitor release of the re-
wrote in Polis. Television and the
of any preelection pell passed both
sults and to correct promptly any
Now Politics " handler Publishing,
houses of the Texas legislature. It
musinterpretation of their findings
1970) that the 1968 code should
was vetood by Democratic Gov.
In 1968. AAPOR. which in-
dampen "the inclination of many
(1963-69) John B. Connally, who
cludes both commercial and aca-
journalists to make blanket state-
is now Treasury Secretary.
A
8/14/71
been working closely with Robert D
"Since when did a 24-year-old kid
"My own horseback judgment is
1699
NATIONAL
Squier, 36, head of Communications
know something?" said a veteran poll-
that our supporters ought to be able
JOURNAL
Co. of Washington. D.C., and Mus-
ster who works mainly for Democrats.
to tell us what's on the minds of
© CPR
are
kie's media consultant (For a report
referring to Miss Navarro. "I couldn't
people. Also, people are much more
"the
on Squier and the role of political
handle a Presidential campaign when
nationally oriented: you don't have
hich
media consultants, see Vol. 2. No. 40.
was 24. I think it's silly."
the kind of Balkanization on issues
( re-
p. 2135.)
Another pollster remarked private-
that you used 10 have."
"Squier is involved in the whole
Iv: "Basing a major campaign on this
Hart nevertheless said that the Mc-
e H.
process." Miss Navarro said. "We
type of information in a primary fight
Govern forces probably would poll in
sters
work as a team and talk about what
is a terribly risky thing to do, because
Wisconsin and Oregon "to find out
neet-
his data needs are. Polling is moving
if Muskie falls on his face in Florida,
what issues predominate" there. Hart
n the
more toward a media orientation be-
he's not going to get up again. If they
said, "I think that would be worth the
infer-
cause people are getting their infor-
are going to have a research prograin
outlay. But that's January or Febru-
mation thro. the tube.'
like that. how are they going to run
ary.'
ublic
Meanwhile, she said. "The Senator
the country?"
Bayh Robert J. Keefe. administra-
nem-
is always budgering us for int orma-
tion." Muskie plans to receive in-depth
for
surveys from five or six primary states
rrent
by January 1972. In addition, Muskie
requires polling research on such po-
ocial
litical questions as how closely should
gton,
he affiliate himself with Chicago May-
poll-
or Richard J. Daley, a controversial
rchi-
figure but potential source of dele-
d M.
gate suppor: in Illinois.
Telephone- The Hamilton firm
uses a "tigh: screen." seeking to reach
only persons who intend to vote in
there
selected 19:2 Democratic primaries.
agon
In uph.lding their telephone-
based techniques, Hamilton and Miss
Navarro explain how they attempt 10
Tully Plesser
Robert Feeter
Anna Navarro
rterly
keep the sample unbiased and to es-
Miss Navarro said: "It's too new,
tive assistant and a top campaign
timed
tablish a rapport during the half-
and conventional wisdom says it's no
planner for Sen. Birch Bayh. of
TS
of
hour interviews. The technique also
good. Yet I have a gut feeling for what
Indiana. said the Senator strongly be-
pro-
costs about 60 ner cent less than field
I'm after: you have to know how to
lieves in taking polls, but, in light of
valua-
interviews of comparable sve-a
play with
his "low-recognition profile, there's
sem-
major consideration in the money-
After the round of open-ended tele
not much point in taking them now."
litical
short Muskie campaign.
phone questioning. Miss Navario said
Keefe said he had been "picking the
thich
For the Muskie colls. numbers are
she is more convinced than ever tha
brains" of two pollsters, John F.
yed.
gleaned from telen directo: in
the system works well and will provide
Kraft and Quayle. "both of whom are
few
the areas to be surveyed and several
the kind of data the Senator needs.
trying to get our business."
rulate
digits are changed before the call is
The pellers: Other Democrats
"When we go into (the Florida) pri-
made This ensures that unlisted num-
who are either in or at the edge of the
mary situation, we will poll three or
Mich.,
bers will be represent in the emple
battle for the party's Presidential
four months out." Keefe said.
olling
(In Los Angeles, 35 per ill
comination have not yet commission-
Kennedy-"We have no reason to
been
residential elephones are malley in
ed any private polling. The Demo-
poll." said Richard C. Drayne. press
New York 20 per cent.)
cratic National Committee. still in
secretary to Sen. Edward M. Kennedy,
The Har iton interviewers call back
debt from the 1968 campaign. has not
of Massachusetts.
bill
three times if 30 one answers; they do
plans to pell. but David A. Cooper,
"My boss reads polls rather avidly.
and
not always interview the person who
the DNC's director of research, said
He's pretty good at interpreting them.
the
answers the phone. They also employ
he is prepared to offer technical poll-
But we don't pull our own. There are
mblic
a toll-free "veritication number,"
ing advice to any Democrat seeking
other people who pull them for you,
inter-
which most people ask for but which
office in 1972. (None of the Presiden-
or maybe send you results, but we've
were
only a minority actually call. This
tial hopefuls has contacted him.)
not commissioned any. There's no
of
keeps their relection rate to 5 per cent.
McGovern- "We've seen some pri-
point in paying $40,000 for a poll just
fused
riticism general, pollsters for
vate polls that other people have
to see whether you were right on an
Democratic candid have shanned
done," said Gary W. Hart. campaign
issue."
red at
telephone colling, and the Muskie
director for Sen George S. McGovern.
Humphrey In the 1968 Presidential
ration
techniques have elicited criticism from
of South Dakota. "The reason we're
campaign. Hubert II. Humphrey, the
both
established pollsters They worder, in
not doing it is that, first of all. it's
Democratic nominee, spent $262,000
It
private. other Harrilton. who has
too early and. second. it costs 100
on polls taken by Quavie and five
Gov.
been polling spice 1953, can "yo the
much money and, thirdly. they won't
smaller firms.
who
distance" I d Maskie Presidential
tell us anything we don't already
Now that he is in the Senate, ac-
campaign.
know
cording to Jack McDonald, his press
1700
8/14/71
NATIONAL
JOURNAL
Directory of Major Political Public
© CPR 1971
A 1972 campaign manual prepared by Lawrence F.
ket research and undertake political polls only in elec-
O'Brien, chairman of the Democratic National Com-
tion years.
mittee, states: "There is no campaign expense which
On the other hand, Nimmo says, there are firms that
should be approached with more care and investigation
take a greater interest in their political than their com-
than the selection of a pollster.
mercial clients. "These firms provide the elient with a
"Each pollster develops and refines his own particu-
written proposal, prepared in consultation with sam-
lar methodology. Each will take a different view of the
pling statisticians in complicated cases, which outlines
candidate's needs and design a survey approach to
what the pollster intends to do. how. and at what cost."
meet those needs." O'Brien advises candidates who plan
Listed below are the names, addresses and telephone
to take polls to solicit proposals from at least three pro-
numbers of 74 U.S. firms engaged in political public
fessional organizations.
opinion research on a regional or national basis. (The
Another campaign handbook, The Political Persuad-
list excludes part-time consultants and firms primarily
ers, by Dan Nimmo (Prentice Hall Inc., 1970). notes
engaged in campaign management.) The name and
that many polling firms are primarily engaged in mar-
title of each firm's principal officer are included.
American Institute of Public Opin-
ington, D.C. 20036: (202) 223-
Jenkintown, Pa. 19046: (215)
ion: Dr. George II. Gallup (chair-
4300. T#
886-1000.
man); 53 Bank St., Princeton,
Callahan Research Associates Inc.;
Crossley Surveys Inc.: Franklin B.
N.J. 08540; (609) 924-9600. *1
William J. Callahan (president):
Leonard (president): 909 Third
Analytical Research Institute Inc.:
31 East 28th St., New York.
Ave., New York. N.Y. 10022:
Irving Gilman (president): 104
N.Y. 10016: (212) 755-5972.
(212) 752-4100.
S. Division St., Peekskill, N.Y.
Cambridge Opinion Studies Inc.;
Decision Making Information Inc.;
10566: (914) 737-8855.
Tully Plesser (president): 625
Vincent P. Barabba (chairman):
Harriet Andrews Research Sen-
Madison Ave., New York. N.Y.
Richard B. Wirthlin (president):
ices Inc.: Harriet Andrews (di-
10022: (212) 759-2220.
2700 N. Main St., Santa Ana.
rector): 4007 Falls Road. Balti-
Cantric Associates: Albert H. Can-
Calif. 92701: (714) 558-1321.
more, Md. 21211: (301) 889-3805.
tril (president): 1061 31st St.
Farrell Research and Communica-
Arizona Institute for Research:
NW, Washington, D.C. 20007;
tions Inc.; Fran Farrell Kraft
Marian Lupu (field director):
(202) 337-1600.
(president): 30 6th St. SE, Wash-
100 East Alameda, Tueson, Ariz.
Donglas H. Carlisle: 1100 Gregg
ington, D.C. 20003; (202) 547-
85701; (602) 624-3880.
St., Columbia, S.C. 29201: (803)
7081.
Audits and Surveys Co. Inc.; Soi-
253-0406.
Field Research Corp.; Mervin D.
omon Dutka (president): One
Center for Political Studies: Prof.
Field (research director): 145
Park Ave., New York. N.Y.
Warren E. Miller (director):
Montgomery St., San Francisco,
10016: (212) 689-9400.
Institute for Social Research,
Calif. 94104: (415) 392-5766.
Bordsley and Haslacher Inc.: Rob.
University of Michigan. Ann
First Research Co.: David Early
ert L. Haslacher (president):
Arbor, Mich. 48106; (313) 764-
(president) 1451 N. Bayshore
422 Waverley St., Polo Alto,
2570. to
Dr., Miami, Fla. 33132; (305)
Calif. 94301: (415) 326-0696,
Central Surveys Inc.: William M.
371-3681.
Barratt Market Research: Ruth C.
Longman (president): P.O. Box
John H. Friend Inc.: John H.
Burratt (owner): 5415 N. Col-
100, Shenandoah. Iowa 51601;
Friend (president): 261 N. Joa-
lege Ave., Indianapolis, Ind.
(712) 240-1630.
chim St., Mobile. Ala. 36603:
46220: (317) 251-1119.
Chilton Research Services (Chil-
(205) 433-3786.
Becker Research Corp.: John F.
ton Co.); John H. Kofron (diree-
Louis Harris and Associates Inc.:
Becker (president): 675 Massa-
tork 56th and Chestnut Sts.,
Louis Harris (president): One
chusetts Ave., Cambridge, Mass.
Philadelphia, Pa. 19139: (215)
Rockefeller Plaza. New York,
02139: (617) 868-0010.
748-2000.
N.Y. 10020: (212) 245-7414.
Belden Associates: Joe Belden
Civic Service Inc.: Roy Plautch
Martin Hausn: 1100 Hotel Okla-
(president): Southland Center,
(president): 403 Olive St., St.
homa. Oklahoma City, Okla.
Dollas 75201: (214) 748-7188.
Louis, Mo. 63101: (314) 436-
73101: (405) 236-0931.
Benson and Beason Inc.: Lawrence
4185.
Sidney Hollander Associates: Sid-
F. Benson (chairman): Benson
Corey. Canapary and Galabis: Dor-
ney Hollander Jr. (president):
Building. Prinecton, N.J. 085-10:
othy D. Corey (president): 2 Pine
2500 Maryland Ave., Baltimore,
(602) 924-3540.
St., San Francisco, Cald. 94111:
Md. 21218: (301) 467-8565.
E. John Ducci Co.: E. John Bucci
(415) 397-1200.
C. F. Hooper Inc.; (a subsidiary of
(president): P.O. Box 266.
Dorothy D. Corey Research: Dor-
Daniel Starch and Staff Inc.):
Swarthmore, Pa. 19031: (215)
other D. Corey (president): 1705
Oscar B. Lubow (president):
544-5775.
Victoria Ave., Los Angeles, Calif.
Mainaroneck, N.Y. 10543: (914)
Bureau of Social Science Research
90019: (213) 731-2414
698-0500.
Inc.; Robert T. Bower (diree-
The CRC Group Inc.: Harry W.
Independent Research Associates
tor): 1200 17th St. NW, Wash.
Riskin (president): Beaver Hill,
Inc.; William R. Hamilton upres-
A
blic
8/14/71
1701
Opinion Firms in the United States
NATIONAL
JOURNAL
elec-
©
CPR 1971
ident): 4000 Albemarle St. NW,
Tower Building, Little Rock,
Response Analysis Corp.; Dr.
that
Washington, D.C. 20016: (202)
Ark. 72201: (501) 374-0605.
Herbert 1. Abeison (president):
362-5056.
Joseph Napolitan Associates Inc.:
com-
1101 State Rd., Princeton, N.J.
with
Institute for Motivational Research;
Joseph Napolitan (president):
a
08540: (609) 921-3333.
sam-
Ernest Dichter (president). Al-
1028 Connecticut Ave. NW.
Responsive Research Corp.; Peter
itlines
bany Post Road, Croton-on-
Washington, D.C. 20036; (202)
K. Simonds (president): 7 Water
Hudson, N.Y. 10520: (914)
296-3780.
SL., Boston, Mass. 02109; (617)
271-4721.
National Analysts Inc.; Peter R.
742-3582.
public
Institute of American Research;
Vroon (chairman): 1015 Chest-
The Roper Organization Inc.;
(The
Stephen J. Kovacik Jr. (presi-
nut St., Philadelphia. Pa. 19107:
Burns W. Roper (president): One
narily
dent): 88 East Broad St. Colum-
(215) 627-8109.
Park Ave., New York, N.Y.
and
bus, Ohio 43215; (614) 221-2062.
National Opinion Research Cen-
10016: (212) 679-3523.
International Research Associates
ter; Norman M. Bradburn (di-
W. R. Simmons Associates: W. R.
Inc.; Helen S. Dinerman (chair-
rector): University of Chicago,
Simmons (president): 235 East
man): 1270 Avenue of the Amer-
6030 South Ellis Ave., Chicago,
42nd St., New York, N.Y.
(215)
icas, New York, N.Y. 10020:
III. 60637: (312) 68-1-5600. #
10017: (212) 986-7700.
(212) 581-2010.
Opinion Research Corp.; Joseph C.
Sindlinger and Co. Inc.; Albert E.
B.
Gordon L. Joseph and Associates;
Bevis (chairman): North Har-
Sindlinger (president): Harvard
Third
Gordon L. Joseph (president):
rison St., Princeton, N.J. 08540;
and Yale Aves., Swarthmore,
.0022:
1510 Veterans Memorial Boule-
(609) 924-5900.
Pa. 19081; (215) 544-8260.
vard. Metairie, La. 70005: (504)
Opinion Research Laboratory; Guy
Strategy Research; Richard W.
Inc.;
835-0635.
E. Rainboth (president): 2108
Tobin Jr. (president): 4141 N.
John F. Kraft Inc.: John F. Kraft
North Pacific, Seattle, Wash.
Miami Ave., Miami, Fla. 33127;
(president): 30 6th St. SE, Wash-
98013: (206) 632-9274.
(305) 751-2216.
Ana,
ington, D.C. 20003: (202) 547-
Opinion Research of California:
Suncoast Opinion Surveys; Rich-
7080.
Don M. Muchmore (chairman):
ard H. Funsch (president): P.O.
W. 11. Long Marketing Inc.: W. H.
1232 Belmont Ave.. Long Beach.
Box 1121. St Petersburg. Ha.
Kraft
Long (president): 122 Keeling
Calif. 90804: (213) 434-5715. *
33731: (813) 894-4560.
Wash-
Road East. Greensboro, N.C.
Political Surveys and Analysis Inc.;
Survey and Research Services Inc.;
547-
27410: (919) 292-4146.
Charles W. Roll Jr. (president):
Dorinda T. Duggan (president):
Louis, Bowles and Grace Inc.: Alex
53 Bank St., Princeton, N.J.
2400 Massachusetts Ave., Cam-
in
D.
Louis (chairman): 1433 Motor
08540: (609) 924-5670.
bridge, Mass. 02140; (617) 864-
145
St., Dallas, Tex. 75207: (214)
Public Affairs Analysts Inc.: Jo-
7794.
cisco,
637-4520.
seph Napolitan (president): Mi-
Survey Research Sciences Inc.;
Samuel Labell: 3200 New Mexico
chael Rowan (executive vice
Richard R. Stone (president):
Early
Ave. NW. Washington, D.C.
president): 1028 Connecticut
11411 North Central Express-
shore
20016: (202) 362-3230.
Ave. NW. Washington, D.C.
way. Dailas, Tex. 75231; (214)
(305)
Market Facts Inc.; David K. Har-
20036: (202) 296-6024.
691-0578.
d'n (president): 100 S. Wacker
The Public Pulse Worldwide Inc. (3
Surveys and Research Corp.: Li-
H.
Drive, Chicago, III. 60606: (312)
subsidiary of Daniel Starch and
bert Ehrman (executive vice
Joa-
332-2686.
Staff Inc.): Oscar B. abow
president): 1828 L St. NW,
36603;
Market Opinion Research: Fred-
(president). Mamaroneck. N.Y.
Washington, D.C. 20036: (202)
erick P. Currier (president): 327
10543: (914) 698-0800.
296-1935.
Inc.;
John R. Detroit, Mich. 48226:
Publicom Inc.; Gerald D. Hursh
Wallaces Farmer; Richard J.
One
(313) 963-2414.
(president): 1300 Connecticut
Pommrehn (research director):
York,
Market Research Field Interview-
Ave. NW. Washington, D.C.
1912 Grand Ave.. Des Moines,
ing Service: Marian R. Ange-
20005: (202) 293-1641.
Iowa 50305: (515) 243-6181. #
Okla-
letti (director): 3015 Last Thom-
Oliver A. Quayle III and Co.
Joe B. Williams Research: Joe B.
Okla.
as Road. Phoenix, Ariz. 85016:
Inc.; (a wholly owned subsidiary
Williams (research consultant):
(602) 956-2500.
of the Minneapolis Star and
Elmwood, Neb. 68349: (402)
Sid-
Marketing Evaluations Inc.: Jack
Tribune Co.): Oliver A. Quayle
994-5395.
F. Landis (president): (\ Chai-
III (president): 141 Parkway
Daniel Yankelovich Inc.: Daniel
kin (senior vice president): 14
Rd., Bronxville, N.Y. 10708;
Yankelovich (president): 575
Vanderventer Ave., Port Wash-
(212) 295-0779.
Madison Ave., New York, N.Y.
ington, N.Y. 11050: (516) 767-
Research Services Inc.: John W.
of
10022: (212) 752-7500. * #
Inc.):
4510: (212) 357-7405.
Emery (president): 1411 Welton
ident):
Marplan Research Inc.: F. J. Van
St., Denver. Colo. 80202: (303)
member of the National Council on
Bortel (president): 455 Texms-
244-8045.
Public Polls
(914)
ton Ave New York. N.Y. 10017.
Research Systems Inc.: R B. Col-
non-profit and or academic
(212) 697-8785.
lier (president): 1314 Burch
results are always publicly published
Mid-South Opinion Surveys; 1 u-
Drive. Evansville. Ind. 47711;
gene Newsom (pre ident): 1750
(812) 867-2463.
compiled by Ann Northrop
:
1702
8/14/71
secretary, "There's no activity of any
Techniques
AMPAC. see Vol. 2, No. 31. p. 1659.)
NATIONAL
kind. He doesn't have advance
In Barabba's view, "A critical abil-
JOURNAL
© CPR 1971
men. He doesn't have money men.
The late Elmo Roper, a pioneer
ity of a good (polling) firm is to have
He doesn't have delegate people. He
pollster. said that the polling business
experience in overcoming the hesi-
doesn't have pollsters."
sat on J three-legged stool: sampling
tancy on the part of some campaign
Jackson- no-polling report also
interviewing and interpretation.
managers to really make use of this in-
came from the office of Sen. Henry
This base has remained constant
formation. If you accept a campaign
M. Jackson, of Washington, whose
since Roper began polling in the mid-
as an economic concept-that is, you
supporters are gearing up for a major
1930s. But the kind of information
are going to attempt to allocate lim-
effort in next March's Florida pri-
that sophisticated politicians are seek-
ited resources in the most efficient
mary.
ing and the kind of techniques that
way-then this information is cru-
S. Sterling Munro Jr.. Jackson's
pollsters are using to obtain it for
cial."
administrative assistant. said that
them have changed profoundly.
Costs and timing: Thomas W Ben-
"When your investment is zero. your
A Midwestern Senator said, "Quite
ham vice president of Opinion Re-
cost-benefit ratio is 100 per cent."
frankly. the trial heats and the stock
search and its liaison man with the
X
Sharing the burden: At a dinner
question about approval is probably
White House, said: "If you're running
meeting of Presidential candidates,
the least valuable. SO far as I'm con-
a campaign where you're going to
called by party chairman Lawrence F.
cerned, because there isn't a thing you
spend $500,000, you better put 10 per
O'Brien July 14, Muskie proposed
can do with that kind of information."
cent uside for polling research, be-
undertaking a pooled public opinion
(The Senator, who is up for reelection
cause it can make the other 90 per
survey. utilizing a single pollster, as a
in 1972, will be polling heavily. but he
cent twice or three times more effi-
means of saving campaign funds.
does not want his constituents to
cient.
The Muskie plan will be studied
know about it because "it weakens my
"You might want to do a 'base
further in staff meetings. but it was
posture.")
study' early in the campaign year.
not greeted with enthusiasm.
Utility: William Hamilton, now poll-
This could be an interview that lasts
None of the dark-horse candidates
ing for Muskie, said that private polls
45 minutes to an hour and it's a big,
-such as Sen. Fred R. Harris, of
can tell candidates what issues are im-
expensive undertaking. But. from that,
Oklahoma. and kep. Wilbur D. Mills.
portant enough to change voting deci-
we can do selective studies. We can
of Arkansas-are having any polling
sions: whether these issues can be
check on changing issues.
done for them. and they are not in-
welded into a campaign theme; and
"And then we can do a small-scale
terested in paying an equal share
how the over-all political climate, in-
telephone effort. re-interviewing cer-
of the cost of a joint survey the for-
cluding the other candidates in a race.
tain people (a technique known as
mula that Muskie's staff regards as
will affect the outcome.
panelback). to see if they have changed
the most equitable.
(Pollster Tully Plesser said his polls
their minds. You can develop a so-
All pollsters interviewed by Na-
revealed that a referendum on liquor-
phisticated tool and it can still have
tional Journal opposed the shared-
by-the-drink was a major factor in the
good economy to it."
data proposal. although they did not
senatorial contest in Texas in 1970.
Costs of seemingly comparable sur-
want to say SO publicly for fear of
because of the voters who were at-
veys can vary as much as 30 per cent.
offending Muskie, whose business
tracted to the polls by the fiquor is-
depending on the procedures. the
they believe is still up for grabs. One
sue.)
overhead and the profit margin.
pollster said. "You can't do that any
Interest groups who are seeking to
Senatorial and gubernatorial candi-
more than you could work for Ford
affect the outcome of an election may
dates commonly budget $30,000 for
and General Motors. It just seems un-
take polls that elicit complex data.
polling research over the course of a
natural to me."
"COPE can buy 10 surveys and de-
campaign. One statewide po!l in a big
liver. them to the candidates, said
state may cost $10,000 to $15,000: a
pollster John Kraft. "It gives them a
survey of a congressional district can
Feedback
certain control over the campaign."
cost up to $10,000. (The techniques of
Oliver A. Quayle III takes con-
The Committee on Political I:duca-
conducting both polls are essentially
fidential polls for many leading
tion. the political action arm of the
the same: the only major saving is in
Democratic politicians. He also
AFT-CIO. has been taking polls since
travel.)
takes polls for Harper's magazine,
1958. For a report on COPE see Vol.
"People are beginning to see that
which owns Quayle's polling com-
2, Vo 37. 1963.)
this kind of data is much more valu-
pany outright and which, in turn. is
Similarly, the American Medical
able if you can establish a trend." said
owned by the Minne polis Star and
Political Action Committee (AM-
Tecter of Detroit's Market Opinion
Tribune Co.
PAC). through its state organi,
Research. This. of course, entails mul-
"We bounce thines off Ollie,"
spent more than $400,000 to pull for
tiple interviews: in the field. interview-
said William S. Blair, the Harper's
Republicans between the 1908 and
ers are paid $2 an hour or more. plus
publisher. "In other words, here's a
1970 elections. Vincent l'. hba.
expenses.
guy who wants to do a piece about
chairman of Decision Making Infor-
DMT's Barabba said: "The diffi-
a particular politician. We mght
mation Inc., a California-based AM-
cults you have in measuring costs be-
send the writer up to talk to Quavie
PAC poll ter. sand: "Those 9UVS (af
tween companies is knowing whether
Obviously, Othe knows a hell of d
AMPAC) have done as much to im-
you're measuring apples and apples or
lot about individual politicians in
prove the systematic of the
apples and oranges, There are a lot of
this country
political process as any organization
ways to cut costs 10 this kind of re-
in existence today (For a report on
search. Unfortunately. there is a direct
:
1659.)
8/14/71
1703
The Rise of the Polls: Bloopers Amid Improving Aim
NATIONAL
abil-
JOURNAI
to
have
© CPR 1971
hesi-
Although political polls are com-
vek. The pool results helped drive
After the election, the Social
impaign
monplace today, the use of scien-
the Literary Digest out of business
Science Research Council, a private
this
in-
tific surveying techniques is less
as public confidence in the maga-
group, named a committee to in-
impaign
than 40 years old. Yet. in one way
zinc sagged.
quire into the pollsters' methods.
is,
you
or another, polls have been part of
Scientific polls: The first scientific
The panel found that the sam-
lim-
the campaign scene for nearly 150
poll-based on a representative
pling method they used was a valid
efficient
years.
sample of the population-was
one, but that the pollsters, in their
is
cru-
Straw polls: In 1824. reporters
taken in July 1935. when Fortune
overconfidence. ignored both un-
for the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian
reported on public reaction to Roo-
decided voters and others who had
Ben-
walked the streets of Wilmington,
sevelt and his New Deal programs.
switched from Dewey to Truman
Re-
Del., asking people whom they
The poll was taken by three part-
late in the campaign. They had also
with
the
preferred as their Presidential
ners, Paul T. Cherington, Elmo B.
underestimated the turnout; this
running
candidate. In that first recorded
Roper Jr. and Richardson K.
made Dewey look better than he
to
United States newspaper poll, the
Wood. They had been conducting
should have.
10
per
Pennsylvanian found Andrew Jack-
private market research and were
Through post-election polling,
be-
son running well abead of John
looking for a dramatic way to prove
the committee found that one voter
90
per
Quincy Adams. (Although Jackson
the degree of accuracy that could be
in seven decided how he would cast
effi-
won a popular plurality, the elec-
obtained through scientific sam-
his ballot during the last two weeks
tion was thrown into the House of
pling. The idea was especially at-
of the campaign and that 75 per
a
"base
Representatives, which picked
tractive to Roper who, according to
cent of this group voted for Truman.
year.
Adams.)
his son. Burns W. Roper. was fas-
Controversy: In 1968. a dispute
lasts
Newspapers took straw polls
cinated by politics and "always
arose shortly before the Republican
a
big.
throughout the rest of the 1800s.
wanted to be a United States Sen-
National Convention that many
that,
The Farm Journal became the first
ator."
pollsters now feel damaged public
We
can
national magazine to take one-in
Gallup's scientific sampling also
trust in the business.
1912. By 1928. newspapers and
was published in 1935, when a
At the time, Gov. Nelson A.
all-scate
magazines were conducting six nd.
group of newspapers agreed to syn-
Rockefeller of New York was bas.
cer-
tionwide and 79 state and local
dicate his findings in a Sunday
ing much of his campaign for the
own
as
straw polls.
column. Archibald M. Crossley
Presidential nomination on the
changed
By far the most prominent of the
entered the business in 1936, at the
ground that polls showed he would
a
so-
magazine straw polls was that of
behest of King Features.
he a stronger candidate than Mr.
have
the Literary Digest, which began
For many years. Roper, Gallup
Nixon when pitted against the even-
polling in 1916. The Digest's streak
and Crossley were "the big three'
tual Democratic nominee.
sur-
of correct Presidential predictions
of the polling business; most of the
Rockefeller and Nixon aides
cent.
remained unbroken until 1936.
pollsters active today got their start
were circulating private polls with
the
when the magazine reported that
in their organizations.
conflicting results on various "trial
Alfred M. Landon would win 59.1
The three men also were great
heats." Then a Gallup Poll. taken
candi-
per cent of the popular vote and
friends who bet on which of the
July 19-21. showed Mr. Nixon as
for
370 of 531 electoral votes. Actually.
three would come closest to predic-
the stronger candidate. Three days
of
a
Franklin D. Roosevelt won 60.2 per
ting the outcome of a Presidential
later on July 30, a Harris Survey
in
a
big
cent of the popular vote and 523
election. Roper won in 1936. 1940
was published. with data collected
5,000:
a
electoral votes.
and 1944. each time collecting a
July 25-29. which showed Rocke-
rict
can
George H. Gallup, a pioneer SCI-
case of Scotch from Gallup and
feller more likely to defeat Hubert
iques
of
entific pollster, publicly predicted
Crossley.
H. Humphrey or Eugene J. Mc-
sentially
at the time that the Digest would
Although Roosevelt used private
Carthy.
is
in
fall on its face: he was meanwhile
polis informally to discern the pub-
On Aug. 1. George H. Gallup Jr.
accurately predicting the results.
lie mood, the first major private
and Louis Harris issued an unprec-
that
As Gallup noted. the Digest
political poll was taken by Roper
edented joint statement that Rocke-
valu-
mailed its more than 10 million
for Jacob k Javits in 1946 when
feller had "now moved to an open
said
sample ballots soleh to car owners
Javits was running on the Liberal
lead" over the two Democrats. The
Opinion
and telephone subscribers-two
Party and Republican lines for a
statement was widely interpreted as
mul-
groups at the time heavils weighted
House scat from upper Manhattan
a public retraction by the Gallup
terview-
with high-income people who tend-
Disaster: For a time, the pollsters'
organization. but none of the prin-
plus
ed to vote Repubhcan-and still
sureess in predicting election results
cipals has discussed the incident
do. The 2,376,523 respondents to
gave them oraculer status. But the
publicly.
diffi-
the Digest poll tended to be the
babble burst in 1948.
When the campaign cot under
be-
wealthest and best-educated sub-
In that year. all the major polls
way. the pollsters accurately meas-
whether
group in the sample, which blased
picked Thomas I: Dewey to defeat
ured the Humphrey surge in Octo-
or
the results still further. Further-
Harry S Trunon 11, a landshde
her and the decline in support for
lot
of
more. the Digest Frited to tal into
Reper stopped polling in mad-Sep-
George C. Wallace. the third-party
of
re-
account six million new voters. five
termber, certain that Dewey would
candidate.
a
direct
million of whom voted for Roose-
win.
-Ann Northrop
1704
8 14/71
relationship between costs and qual-
mail out questionnaires (to interview-
"None of the private pollsters do
NATIONAL
itv."
ers). I also think we get higher cooper-
complete probability sampling be-
JOURNAL
CPR 1971
The product: John Kraft. who has 18
ation rates around the country than is
cause of the prohibitive expense.
years' experience working for both
possible in face-to-face interviews. In
(Quayle noted that this was not the
Democratic and Republican candi-
some areas. you can't get people to go
case for the Gallup Poll and the Har-
dates. said he normally prepares a
in at all."
ris Survey, "because their necks are
written report, about 40 pages in
Cleavage: Telephone survey research
on the line.")
length, of which three-fourths is in-
for politicians has mushroomed with
"You pick up a point to a point-
terpretation. "T'll also supply the
the widespread use of bulk-rate long-
and-a-half of margin with probability
(computer) printouts when I'm asked
distance (WATS) lines and computer-
samples. I've done them when I've
to, but I've had only two such re-
ized random generation of telephone
had to. when I knew I was in a differ-
quests."
numbers. But some members of the
ent ball game."
Kraft. like most other pollsters. pre-
political polling fraternity remain op-
John Kraft and his wife. Fran Far-
fers to discuss results and their mean-
posed to telephone surveys.
reli Kraft. who is also a well-known
ing with the candidate and his staff.
Charles W. Roll Jr., president of
pollster, agreed with Quayle. "There is
"In many cases, it's best to talk it
Political Surveys and Analysis Inc.
no significant difference in the result,"
out," he said.
(PS&A), which has done most of the
Kraft said.
Unfavorable reports can bring com-
polling commissioned by Nelson
Several pollsters disagreed, how-
plications.
Rockefeller, said: "If I were buying
ever. One was PS&A's Roll, who
Tecter recalled: "I had one guy sev-
surveys for a political campaign that
said: "The respectability of quota
eral years ago who had been working
I felt was terribly important. and there
samples went out in 1948. with the
hard for two or three months and got
was enough money, I wouldn't touch
Truman-Dewey election. You don't
a bad poll and just sat in a hotel room
a telephone survey. I have reason to
know what your sample error is. Luck
and drank for about four days. We
believe (from Rocketeller campaigns)
is with them. But it's certainly not
couldn't move him: he was in shock
that some people are far less critical of
enough to hang your hat on, I would
because the poll still showed him 10-
individuals when asked about them
think."
15 points behind. He eventually
over the phone. and that. of course.
ORC's Benham said his firm used
won. Now, we talk a lot about
creates J different result.
only probability samples. However, he
how to by bad ones on people before
"If 1 were involved in a Presidential
said: "In many situations, you can use
WC do it. It's a very tricky thing."
campaign. I would throw the tele-
the best scientific probability sample
Developments: Most pollsters inter-
phone away. unless there was an CA-
or a mediocre quota sample and get
viewed by National Journal said they
tremely urgent time factor involved."
the same results-because there's no
recently have started making more ex-
(Roll is an employee of George H.
critical element that would make an
haustive studies of sub-groups and an-
Gallup, who bought PS&A from its
essential difference."
alyzing the response to various issues,
founder, Archibald M. Crossley, in
Assessment
"There's particular interest in the
1970; PS&A uses Gallep's sampling,
young voters in '72," Quavle said.
interviewing and tabulating facilities,
Pollsters and politicians coexist un-
Quay also reparted that he IS ask-
which are based solely on field inter-
easily, needing each other and yet
ing more media-related questions.
views.)
aware of each other's limitations.
"It's the sort of question I don't like
DMT's Barabba said: 'You can get
Both are victims of a vicious circle
to ask, because I don't think people
more about a person at the door than
in polities: the degree of media expo-
really know how they get their infor-
on the telephone, The telephone's
sure affects poll results: poll results af-
mation. I'm amazed at how little the
great strength is that you get wider
feet the amount of campaign funds
television people know sometimes
distribution of your sample and inter-
that can be raised: campaign funds of-
(about the makeup of their audiences)
view clusters."
feet media exposure.
in a given market. But we're learning
Don M. Muchmore, chairman of
Drawer syndrome: Muchmore thinks
to work better together.
Opinion Research of California, who
campaign managers. more than candi-
ORC's Benham said his firm had
has done comparative studies of rele-
dates, are responsible for poor rela-
been able to shorten substantially the
phone and field interview polls, aid
tionships. "We give them a battle
time period from "problem to data"
the field work produces superior re-
plan, and many times they don't want
by using more telephone interviews.
sults and should be used. except 111
to use It because they have a feeling
"We've also learned how to weigh
high-urgency polls of national scope.
it's going to go a different way. Some-
them better."
"With no eve-to-eye contact. there's
times they're right: sometimes they
William M. ] ongman, president of
no trust." Muchmore said.
wrong. But, more often, they
Central Surveys Inc., said in J tele-
Sample methods: Political pollsters
wrong."
phone interview from Shenandoah.
also divide over whether to use quota
Another Californian, Vincent Ba-
Iowa, that his firm now was able to
01 probability samples. (For a discus-
rabba, said: "We see an awful lot of
provide overnight results to political
sien of sample coror. see statistical
what we refer 10 as the right-hand
elients through arrangements for the
box.)
drawer syndrome. You give a guy a
use of computers at the interview sites.
Quavle said: "Nobody does proba-
survey you make a fancy presenta-
Robert K. MeMillan of Chilton Re-
Fility samples, strictly speaking. And
twn - and he says, Gee, that's great!"
search Services, a proponent of tele-
if you did, it would be be
And he opens up the right-hard
phone interviewing, said: "In a day,
cause you'd be charging at PUV an arm
drawer of his desk and puts It 10 there,
you Can do here what it would take
and a leg for a greater degree of accu-
and that's the last time it's used.
you four weeks to do if you had to
racy than he needs.
Then, if someone asks what are
do
you basing all those decisions on, he
group, said: "We got committed to
if potential backers thought Javits
8/14/71
1705
opens up the drawer and says. "Well,
doing the (1968) thing without assess-
could not lose.
NATIONAL
be-
we got a survey.
ing as much as we should have in ad-
The poll was nevertheless "leaked"
JOURNAL
MOR's Teeter believes the worst is
vance." (For a report on the House
© CPR
the
to The New York Times for its "band-
Har-
over. "Two or three years ago," he
and Senate GOP campaign commit-
wagon" effect and because it showed
said, "we had a real problem with
lees, see Vol. 2. No. 31, p. 2100.)
Javits to be the strongest Republican
are
guys who were using it for the first
Pressure points: In a profession linked
politician in New York state at the
time and thought they had just hought
closely to the academic community,
time.
themselves magic buttons. With some
but with no entry standards, salesman-
The release of the poll led to a
I've
people, it became a narcotic. If they
ship remains a persistent problem.
charge by O'Dwyer that it was a delib-
ffer-
didn't know what to do, they had an-
"It's the gut problem in the business,"
erate attempt to influence the New
other poll taken."
said Albert H. Cantril, a Washington-
York Daily News Poll. which was
Far-
Getting more: From the client's side, a
based polling consultant. Cantril is the
scheduled to commence canvassing
Democratic Senator said privately: "I
author. with Charles Roll. of Hopes
lown
just after the GOP poll was released.
is
don't know of anyone around here
and Fears of the American People
While the Javits "leak" was a delib-
who is having polling done and who
(Universe Books. 1971). which is
ult,"
erate one, candidates often insist that
wouldn't like to get more than he's
based on Gallup research.
a pollster report directly to them in an
getting out of it. But 1 know it's sim-
Said Cantril: "The only way you
effort to control access to private polls
now-
ply a matter of dollars. They have a
can seek new business is to tear down
who
on the campaign staff.
product to sell; they have costs."
the other guy's methods and try 10
Pollsters and politicians are coming
uota
the
If finances are often a central prob-
show politicians that they are not get-
increasingly to agree that there is a
don't
lem to the pollster. they are even more
ting anything 100 useful. There are no
limit to what surveys can accomplish.
Luck
of one to the politician. A Republican
teaching materials you can use unless
MOR's Tecter said: "You can't go
Senator from the Northeast said:
you break the confidence of a private
and say to some guy. 'Look, if you go
not
ould
"There isn't any question that I
(political) client.
out and take this stand, you'll increase
couldn't solve if I wanted to spend
Political pollsters also are encoun-
your support 4 per cent.' That's
used
$25,000 for a survey."
tering fresh prob ems in seeking to as-
crazy."
he
But the difficulties range beyond in-
semble valid public opinion data. An
Progress: If political pollsters are still
sufficient funds. A campaign manager
executive at Chilton Research Services
searching for a firmer foundation,
use
mple
who has worked with pollsters for
in Philadelphia said: "There's no use
there are nevertheless signs of prog-
many years said privately:
kidding anybod, the cooperative Tale
ress.
get
"I think there's room in this busi-
is decreasing every year. It used to be
Quayle said: "A couple of years
no
ness for someone who really wants to
20 years ago if we got a 3-per cent re-
ago, everybody was trying to get into
an
drive it wide open. lle could drive all
fusal rate we were concerned about it:
the act. And that's not happening any-
these guys out. For example, why not
today, they are running 10 and 12 per
more. A lot of commercial firms-the
add an entire demographic package
cent.
guys who were researching soap and
with sample electoral analysis and pri-
"It's all part of the misuse of re-
SO forth-began to dabble in politics,
un-
ority ranking of states, congressional
search techniques. People today are
looking at it as a new market. But
yet
districts and counties, with cross-data
just more suspicious. You know, a
you've got to know something about
by issues. It's possible with computer
salesman calling up and saying he's
politics in this business. It's an art as
analysis. That's a service I could really
making a survey and the next thing
well as a science."
xpo-
use."
he's knocking at your door."
Roll believes that what is needed is
af-
unds
In 1968. the National Republican
Dangers: Private polls can cause com-
better liaison between the campaign
Congressional (Campaign) Committee
plications in campaigns that are not
and the pollsters- "politically sensi-
af-
and its Senate counterpart bought a
always readily apparent. For example,
tive men inside the campaign organi-
$400,000 survey through Datamatics
Sen. Jacob K. Juvits, R-N.Y., received
zation who are at the same time highly
andi-
Inc., a subsidiary of Spencer-Roberts
3 poll from Tully Plesser in 1968 that
sophisticated about the use of polling
and Associates, a California-based
rela-
showed Javits leading his Democratic
techniques."
canipaign consulting firm. Datamatics
opponent. Paul O'Dwyer, 48-16.
"It's a funny business," another
is now dissolved: at the time, it was
Javits' advisers were besitant about
well-known pollster said. "When you
headed by Vincent Barabba.
releasing the po.!. despite the strong
get all this stuff done. the candidates
Neither the House nor the Senate
lead. for tear it would not be believed
look at it and if it doesn't really agree
committee is scheduling any polling
and would mise a "credibility issue."
with them. they're very suspicious.
projects for 1972. Paul A. Theis, direc-
Yet another con ideration was fear
But if it agrees with them. it's the best
re
tor of public relations for the House
that it would be harder to raise money
poll in America."
Ba-
of
hand
a
eat!'
and
AN
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
By
September 3, 1971
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JEB MAGRUDER
FROM:
WILLIAM E. TIMMONS
SUBJECT:
'72 Democratic Convention
I think it important to start a national publicity campaign
to show that the Democrats still owe $750,000 from their
'68 Chicago Convention. Perhaps our friends at the Tribune
could do a series of stories on this deficit and later have
one of the national news magazines pick the story up.
The IRS is apparently checking the records of the First
National Bank of Chicago regarding Convention liabilities
as part of an investigation into tax matters on Matthew
J. Danaher, Clerk of the Cook County Circuit Court.
Also, the Tribune could repeat comments by potential
Democratic candidates at the time of the recent announce-
ment of Miami Beach. You'll recall in the Washington Post
most all criticized Chicago for '68 troubles. I would
think a build-up of publicity on the DNC Chicago debt plus
current attitudes of national Democratic leaders would
help estrange Illinois from our opposition.
What think?
1.CC: H. R. Haldeman
CONFIDENTIAL
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 2, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
W. E. TIMMONS
SUBJECT:
'72 Convention
For tentative planning purposes, I will ask the RNC for
1,800 Convention hall seats to be allocated as follows:
I. BOXES & PREFERRED SEATING
CATEGORY
President's Family & special friends
50 (boxes)
President's Regular friends
100
President's Senior staff & Wives
50 (boxes)
Vice President, his family & special friends
30 (boxes)
Vice President's Regular friends
50
Vice President's senior staff & wives
20
Cabinet Officers/ Agency Heads & Wives
50 (boxes)
Key Administration officials & wives
200
Foreign Ambassadors & wives
160
Principal campaign staff & wives
30
Campaign big givers & wives
200
Preferred Subtotal:
940 (180 boxes)
II.
GALLERY SEATING*
President's Senior staff's friends
100
Cabinet Officers/Agency Heads' friends
100
White House, Campaign & Administration staff
100
San Diego Nixon Host Committee
50
Nixon Youth
510
Gallery Subtotal:
860
GRAND TOTAL:
1,800
*Seats to be located at best camera angle from networks
anchor booths.
NOTE: We plan to have "fillers" available to take prime seats
should assigned ticket holders fail to show for one of the
evening conventions sessions.
Do you anticipate this will satisfy, the President's personal
requirements? How about other categories?
YES
NO
OTHER:
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 1, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
WILLIAM E. TIMMONS
Bl
SUBJECT:
'72 Convention
To assist in planning the coordinated activities of the
White House staff and Nixon campaign effort I need some
decisions regarding involvement of the President's staff.
1. SIZE OF CONTINGENT: Estimate that there will be 25
male staff and 25 secretaries (total 50) from White
House staff.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
2. TRANSPORTATION: White House staff will be responsible
for their own travel at non campaign expense to and
from San Diego. However, the campaign organization will
be responsible for ground transportation in the convention
city. (This assumes no White House cars or military
drivers for other than the President and his immediate
party when he personally participates).
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
3. FOOD SERVICE: White House staff will use mess facility
for campaign staff which, along with the hotel rooms,
will be paid for by the campaign organization. Meals
outside the mess are the personal responsibility of the
individual staffer.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
4. COMMUNICATIONS: The White House Communications Agency
will provide telephone, walkie talkie and pageboy service
in San Diego for White House staff. Unlike automobiles
this service is not highly visable and can be justified.
on basis of President's need to communicate with his staff.
A White House PBX and Campaign Switchboard will be coordinated
to permit interchange of calls.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
-2-
5. SAN CLEMENTE: Those delegates, politicians and staff
who receive invitations to visit with the President
at the Western White House will be shuttled by military
helicopter from a central contact point in San Diego.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
Bob, this is not meant to be binding but to serve as a
planning guide for convention activities.
THE WHITE HOUSE
6-102
WASHINGTON
September 3, 1971
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
WILLIAM E. TIMMONS
BT
SUBJECT:
'72 Convention
To assist in my preliminary planning for the National
Convention, I've drawn up a rough list of those White
House staff whom the President may wish to attend the
San Diego event. Will you please review the list,
make changes as appropriate, and let me know? I recog-
nize this approved list will be tentative and should be
used only as a guideline. There are obviously a number
of staffers I haven't included but who would probably
want to attend the event.
This is important not only to room assignments but will
bear on planning for chartered aircraft, ground trans-
portation requirements, Convention tickets, office
equipment, food service arrangements, etc.
I have not included rooms set aside for the President
and Vice President, their families and friends.
CONFIDENTIAL
PRESIDENTIAL FLOOR
WHCA
Authorized
Secretary's
Staff
Room
Phones
Secretary
Room
1.
Bull
1/2
X
No
-
2.
Chapin
1
X
Yes
1/2
3.
Haldeman
1
X
Yes
1/2
4.
Higby
1/2
X
No
-
5.
Hughes
1
X
No
-
6.
Tkach
1
X
No
-
7.
Woods
1
X
Yes
1/2
8.
Ziegler
1
X
No
-
9.
Butterfield
1
X
Yes
1/2
10.
Secret Service
1
X
No
-
11.
Office
1
X
-
-
12. Office
1
X
-
-
13.
Valet
1
X
-
-
TOTAL PERSONNEL:
13 (9 staff & 4 secretaries)
TOTAL ROOMS UTILIZED:
14
TOTAL WHCA PHONES: 13
PRESIDENTIAL FLOOR (VICE PRESIDENT'S WING)
WHCA
Authorized
Secretary's
Staff
Room
Phone
Secretary
Room
1.
Sohmer
1
X
Yes
1/2
2.
Goodearle
1
X
Yes
1/2
3.
Keene
1
X
No
-
4. Guard
1
X
No
-
5.
Malatasta
1
X
No
-
6.
Gold
1
X
Yes
1/2
7.
Thompson
1
X
Yes
1/2
8.
Military Aide
1
X
No
-
9.
Doctor
1
X
No
-
10.
Secret Service
1
X
No
-
11.
Office
1
X
-
-
12.
Office
1
X
-
-
TOTAL PERSONNEL:
13 (9 staff & 4 secretaries)
TOTAL ROOMS UTILIZED:
14
TOTAL WHCA PHONES:
12
&
FIRST WHITE HOUSE FLOOR
WHCA
Authorized
Secretary's
Staff
Room
Phones
Secretary
Room
1.
Colson
1
X
Yes
1/2
2.
Dent
1
X
Yes
1/2
3.
Ehrlichman
1
X
Yes
1/2
4.
Finch
1
X
Yes
1/2
5.
Flanigan
1
X
Yes
1/2
6.
Garment
1
X
Yes
1/2
7.
Johnson
1
X
Yes
1/2
8.
Kissinger
1
X
Yes
1/2
9.
Klein
1
X
Yes
1/2
10.
MacGregor
1
X
Yes
1/2
11.
Peterson
1
X
Yes
1/2
12.
Rumsfeld
1
X
Yes
1/2
13.
Price
1
X
Yes
1/2
14.
Shultz
1
X
Yes
1/2
15.
Stuart
1
X
Yes
1/2
16.
Winchester
1
X
No
-
17.
Cole
1
X
Yes
1/2
18.
Morgan
1
X
No
-
19.
Whitaker
1
X
No
I
20.
Harper
1
X
No
I
21.
Dean
1
X
No
1
22.
Malek
1
X
No
-
23.
Weinberger
1
X
No
I
24.
Carlucci
1
X
No
I
25.
Office
1
X
-
I
26.
Office
1
X
-
I
27.
Office
1
X
-
-
28.
Office
1
X
-
I
TOTAL PERSONNEL:
40 (24 staff & 16 secretaries)
TOTAL ROOMS UTLIZED:
36
TOTAL WHCA PHONES:
28
SECOND WHITE HOUSE FLOOR
WHCA
Authorized
Secretary's
Staff
Room
Phones
Secretary
Room
1.
Buchanan
1
X
Yes
1/2
2.
Goode
1/2
X
No
-
3.
Shumway
1/2
X
No
1
4.
Snyder
1/2
X
No
!
5.
Moore
1
X
Yes
1/2
6.
Safire
1
X
Yes
1/2
7.
Scali
1
X
Yes
1/2
8.
Howard
1/2
X
No
I
9.
Barker
1
X
Yes
1/2
:
SECOND WHITE HOUSE FLOOR (continued)
WHCA
Authorized
Secretary's
Staff
Room
Phones
Secretary
Room
10.
Costello
1
X
Yes
1/2
11.
Khachigian
1/2
X
No
-
12.
Huebner
1/2
X
No
I
13.
Ball
1
X
Yes
1/2
14.
Elbourne
1/2
X
No
-
15. Warren
1
X
Yes
1/2
16. Whelihan
1/2
X
No
-
17.
Bell
1/2
X
No
-
18.
Cashen
1/2
X
No
I
19.
Andrews
1/2
X
No
I
20.
Atkins
1
X
No
-
21.
Walker
1
X
Yes
1/2
22.
Millspaugh
1/2
X
No
I
23.
Strachan
1/2
X
No
-
24.
Kehrli
1/2
X
No
I
25.
Grassmuch
1/2
X
No
-
26.
Hendricks
1/2
X
No
I
27.
Brown
1
X
No
-
28.
Huntsman
1
X
No
I
29.
Hullin
1/2
X
No
-
30.
Patterson
1/2
X
No
I
31.
Kingsley
1/2
X
No
-
32.
Cheney
1/2
X
No
I
33.
Adams (1st lady) 1/2
X
No
I
34.
Schmid ("
" )1/2
X
No
-
35. Office
1
X
I
-
36. Office
1
X
-
I
37. Office
1
X
-
-
38. Office
1
X
-
-
TOTAL PERSONNEL: 43 (34 staff & 9 secretaries)
TOTAL ROOMS UTILIZED: 31
TOTAL WHCA PHONES: 27
GRAND TOTALS:
PERSONNEL:
109 (76 staff & 33 secretaries)
ROOMS: 95 (including 12 offices and 2 secret service rooms)
WHCA PHONES:
80
Each of three floors will have four White House offices
(two per wing)
In each office there will be:
TOTAL
Three IMB Typewriters
36
Three Secretarial Desks & Chairs
36
White House Phone
12
Three IBM Dictating machines & Transcribers
36
Usual office supplies
-
Locator Board to sign out (one per wing)
6
8 am - 8 pm Volunteers (not President's floor)
16
Xerox machine (one per wing)
6
Mimeograph machine (one per wing)
6
In addition to regular staff & secretaries it appears 17
additional rooms should be blocked off for use by White House
service personnel. It is anticipated that since they will be
performing their duties, the Federal government should pay
for their rooms and meals as well as furnishing transportation.
Service Staff
Rooms
1. Telephone Operator
1/2
2. Telephone Operator
1/2
3. Telephone Operator
1/2
4. Telephone Operator
1/2
5.
Telephone Operator
1/2
6. Telephone Operator
1/2
7.
Telephone Operator
1/2
8.
Telephone Operator
1/2
9.
Telephone Operator
1/2
10.
Telephone Operator
1/2
11.
WHCA staff
1/2
12.
WHCA staff
1/2
13.
WHCA staff
1/2
14.
WHCA staff
1/2
15.
WHCA staff
1/2
16.
WHCA staff
1/2
17.
Military
1/2
18. Military
1/2
19. Military
1/2
20. Military
1/2
21.
Military (VP)
1/2
22. Military (VP)
1/2
23.
Military (VP)
1/2
24.
Military (VP)
1/2
25.
Secret Service
1/2
26.
Secret Service
1/2
27.
Secret Service
1/2
28.
Secret Service
1/2
Service Staff
Rooms
29.
Secret Service
1/2
30.
Secret Service
1/2
31.
Secret Service (VP)
1/2
32.
Secret Service (VP)
1/2
33.
Secret Service (VP)
1/2
34.
Secret Service (VP)
1/2
TOTAL SERVICE PERSONNEL: 34
TOTAL ROOMS:
17
TOTAL WHCA PHONES: 17 (one per room)
NOTE:
Nearby military housing can be made available as
sleeping quarters for additional service staff in
town preforming official duties.
9/1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Slons, K, Washburn, Ougan,
nunn, GS/J8M, seven
-0 J8m 1 HAwant out of
admin part of chen
comm itance Buc -
keeping & for comp
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slans
THE WHITE HOUSE
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Slons /Dugan / nunn / Sloan
fundraising opexation
5
inc,
meet heal heal week te
reverw how
specs done
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until afterconvention
7
after mtg then move
on milland ele
under slans
no turnery until after
mtg (used Jsm attend
sloon report to stans- - /copy
no ISM aware.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
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K after mulcaly
to bring up
$ 140,000 Cits to dale
induding 35,000
advanced by
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from cash
Scons - needs 3 budgets
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- black your woman Ile
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Com Can Suat
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68 records & 70
refords
- Slans held & deshoycel
contril records
Judge refused to permit
Dear 5 5ᵗʰ on Depord
Com Care 5-6 louyers full lime
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THE WHITE HOUSE
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
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Roger Hays
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
ASSISTANT TO THE SECRETARY
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
UNITED AMERICA
STATES of
To :
From:
I
Joseph Dent E. Casson - Tom Evons
+ Kunzig meet
terday/at 3
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ag/ony RNC
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contact cilagencies
TRANSMITTAL FORM CD-82A (3-71)
PRESCRIBED BY DAO 214-2
U5COMM-DC 371-P71
August 19, 1971
CONFIDENTIAL
52482
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
FROM:
MURRAY CHOTINER
SUBJECT:
NEW HAMPSHIRE
The following comes from a reliable source, who knows
New Hampshire.
Lane Dwinell will be an excellent choice to look after
the President's activities in New Hampshire. Mrs.
Dwinell plays an important role in the state.
Lyle Herson, one of five counsellors to the Governor, is
a fine young person, but should be ruled out as number 1
representative of the President in the state, because he
comes from the northern part of the state where there are
very few votes. He should be part of the New Hampshire
group, however.
John Bridges, son of Senator Styles Bridges, would be a
good selection to serve on the committee, but should not
head it up, as it would revive old wounds.
cc: H. R. Haldeman
CONFIDENTIAL
need
to
August 16,
Memorandum
To: Bob Haldeman
From: Charlie New McWhorter
Re: Governor Walter Peterson of New Hampshire
ok
You will recall that when Pete McCloskey opened his headquarters
in New Hampshire he received a courtesy call from Governor Walter Peterson
and Stewart Lamprey. At the time, Governor Peterson made some remarks which
indicated that his visit to the headquarters was something more than a mere
courtesy call. This was confirmed again to me by Marty Plissner of CBS
News who checked with some sources in New Hampshire.
In order to get more information about this situation I had Bill
Treat, a long standing friend of the President and a former state GOP
official, contact Governor Peterson direct to take a reading of this situa-
tion. Treat called me this morning to say that he had talked with the
Governor at some length this morning; that there is no question but what the
Governor feels a little unhappy about the lack of two-way liaison with the
Administration. He has cooperated with various White House requests to
issue statements in support of the President's position, including one this
morning in support of the President's economic initiatives announced last
night on television. However, the Governor is a little disturbed that the
White House apparently gives SO much attention to Bill Loeb. Some three or
four months ago Bill Loeb and his wife attended a White House dinner which
Loeb enjoys publicizing whenever he has a chance which is quite frequent.
In the front page editorial which Loeb ran in his paper on the day of the
President's recent trip to New Hampshire, Loeb again referred to his White
House visit in announcing that he would support almost anyone other than
President Nixon next year as a result of his disagreement on a number of
key issues including Red China. The Governor also mentioned that Herb Klein
had visited Loeb in New Hampshire but had not been in touch with the Gover-
nor's office.
In summary, I would recommend that at some early opportunity
Governor Peterson and his wife be included in a White House affair and that
occasion be used to smooth his feathers a little bit. Peterson has not
decided to run for a third term but he obviously will have the bitter
opposition of Bill Loeb if he tries to do SO. That primary, incidentally,
is in September and not on the March 7 Presidential primary.
cc: Harry S. Flemming
STATE ASSIGNMENTS
MAINE
GOP State Chairman Moreshead is a good friend of the '68 RN
Chairman Ned Harding, thus he recommends Harding to give
continuity for the RN people and a close working relation-
ship with State GOP Chairmen.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Lane Dwinell on board as overall chairman. We will work up
suggestions for co-chairmen representing liberal and conserva-
tive elements. Dwinell suggests and I agree that we get a
younger type to head the "beauty contest" part of the primary.
VERMONT
1968 RN Chairman Doug Cairns wants very much to go again.
You will remember he did a particularly good job in their
convention. One thing to look out for in Vermont is a primary
scheduled in Randolph, Vermont (population about 500) on
March 7th, the same day as New Hampshire's. McCloskey is
making an effort to score Vermont in this one for the national
publicity value.
MASSACHUSETTS
I am still checking on Massachusetts, but a number of people
have recommended State Senate Minority Leader John Parker.
He was a RN supporter, pre-convention in '68. In addition
he seems to enjoy the confidence of Richardson, Volpe and Brooke.
Don Whitehead has finished the scenario you requested and I am
having lunch with him on Tuesday to go over it.
CONNECTICUT
We should work with Governor Meskill and Senator Weicker to come
up with the right person. In doing so, Meskill counts more
than Weicker, as he controls the state party machinery.
-2-
RHODE ISLAND
The party people would like us to put together a slate of RN
people and run them unpledged in the primary. McCloskey is
about 90% sure to go into Rhode Island with his own slate.
George Vetter would like to be the state chairman. I need
to check this out with John Chaffee and Herb DeSimone as they
are likely to be on the ballot at the same time.
NEW YORK
Problem seems to center on how one can pull the diverse elements
together. Strategy on how to handle the conservative Republican
hassle on electors should be worked out in advance of decision
on who will head campaign. You know far more on this one than
I ever will.
NEW JERSEY
We have a number of recommendations of prominent business leaders
in the state as possible chairmen. RGK has suggested that
Governor Cahill might be a strong choice. He is apparently quite
popular. Lee Nunn is sounding out Senator Case on his feelings
on the Presidential race in 1972. In any event, we should hold
up until after November's legislative races.
DELAWARE
I have no real input on Delaware at this time.
PENNSYLVANIA
Bill Scranton seems to be the closest thing to a common denominator
in Pennsylvania. Nunn reports the business community is nearly
unanimous on him. I can report the same from the politicals. None-
the less, I worry about this idea. Scranton probably won't put much
time into it and could be difficult to handle. An alternative
might be to use Scott and Schweiker as co-chairmen and then obtain
a good, young executive director to run the campaign.
MARYLAND
The suggestion of Mathias and Seall as co-chairmen remains the best
I've heard. Lacking a better idea, perhaps we should try and convince
the Vice President on this. GOP Chairman Lankler suggested State
Senator Ed Thomas from Frederick as the executive director. I tried
this on Art Sohmer and while he wasnt wild on the idea, he felt
that he could do the job.
-3-
WEST VIRGINIA
There are several competent, young state legislators who could
do a fine job of protecting our interests. Unfortunately
there is probably little else for us in the state.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
I suggest we get someone like Perk McGuire who can weld together
a good delegation and raise some money. Another suggestion
would be to get an able, young black or a woman. Recognizing
the political realities, this may be a logical place to broaden
the range of our state chairmen.
VIRGINIA
The secret here is to get someone who will be excepted by both
Governor Holton and Senator Byrd. Lawrence Lewis of Richmond,
who headed our '68 Citizens effort, should be acceptable to both,
although he is not a worker. The state party will co-operate
100% once we get past the Governor's ego. In any event, we should
hold up until after the Virginia race for Lt. Gov. this fall.
KENTUCKY
I again suggest that we wait until after the fall elections.
TENNESSEE
Everyone I have talked to feels we ought to concentrate on finding
a good executive director. He, in turn, would put together a large
bipartisan committee to front his operation.
NORTH CAROLINA
Several candidates for State Chairman have been recommended
including Charles Crutchfield, Charlotte Radio and TV owner,
Mel Broughton, former Democratic candidate for Governor and lawyer,
and our '68 Citizens Chairman Willis Smith, Jr. Smith and Broughton
would be the strongest of the three.
-4-
SOUTH CAROLINA
Harry Dent advises that we wait until their intra-party disputes
settle down before making our move in South Carolina.
GEORGIA
The party is so divided and of limited ability that I suggest
we go into the Atlanta business community and build a truly
Citizens approach for the November campaign. This will necessitate
finding someone within the party to put together a good slate
of delegates for the convention, to serve as a liaison with the
party, and the Citizens group during the fall campaign.
FLORIDA
You have the key to the general election campaign. I am working
up some recommendations on the primary to fully utilize the party
for a broader effort in the fall.
ALABAMA
Frank Parsons of Birmingham, who narrowly lost a bid for National
President of the Jaycees, might be a fine choice for our Citizens
chairman. He serves on the desegregation committee and is apparently
a good man. Dick Bennett, State GOP Chairman, is coming up to see
me in the next week or so and I will get his ideas.
MISSISSIPPI
Clarke Reed would like to put together a group of prominent business
leaders to front our campaign and then use the party machinery
to do the day-to-day work. Lt. Gov. Charles Sullivan is running
for Governor as a Nixon man and will probably win. We should wait
for the outcome of this race before making our move, as he could
be very helpful.
LOUISIANA
Louisiana elects a governor on February 1, 1972. The Republicans
are trying to mount a strong campaign. I suggest we wait until
that is over and then work with our '68 Nixon Chairman, Charlton
Lyons to come up with the best man.
-5-
ARKANSAS
A rather intense battle has gone on between former Governor
Rockefeller and State Chairman Charles Bernard, over control
of the party. Both sides have requested we hold off until they
can patch up their quarrel. This is a reasonable request. Bernard
is pushing Odell Pollard, his predecessor, but I don't think too
much of this idea.
OHIO
I gather that Lee Nunn and you have worked out an arrangement for
Ray Bliss to head up our campaign in Ohio.
MICHIGAN
I have no specific recommendation other than he should be someone
who can work with the Governor, the State GOP and the conservatives.
He should not be any of the above specifically.
INDIANA
The first step should be to get the State Chairman, John Snyder,
National Committeeman Keith Bulen, and Lt. Gov. Foltz, to sit
down and agree to agree. Our '68 Chairman, Orvis Beers, won't
work as he has lost out in the factional wars. Someone with his
'68 qualifications would probably do the trick.
ILLINOIS
Tom Houser has agreed to head up our campaign in the state.
WISCONSIN
John MacIver will head the campaign. He has successfully pulled
in the top business types and should have a first class effort there.
MINNESOTA
I have no recommendation at this time. McCloskey is making some
effort in the state under the anti-war banner. He has some
support among liberal anti-Nixon Republicans.
-6-
IOWA
A bitter battle will be fought between Governor Robert Ray and
Lt. Gov. Jepson for the GOP nomination for Governor. We should
steer clear of this and find someone who will not get involved.
I have recommendations of prominent businessmen from the party
people.
MISSOURI
The party people are strongly urging that we use Larry Roos,
County Executive in St. Louis County. As you will recall, he
was part of the Rockefeller operation in 1968 and has never been
very close to the President. He does, however, have some resources
to put in the campaign such as staff and finance contacts. There
do not seem to be many other choices unless we use a businessman.
KANSAS
I have no suggestions on Kansas.
NEBRASKA
George Cook is set as our Chairman for 1972. He plans to operate
in a manner similar to four years ago. Your friend, Bob Kutak,
is very impressive and wants to help. I think he would make a
good finance chairman for us.
SOUTH DAKOTA
National Committeeman Jack Gibson and State Chairman Charles Howard
recommend that we use former Congressmen E. Y. Berry and Ben Reifel
as our co-chairmen. They would use former AA to Senator Mundt,
W. E. "Obie" O'Brien as the operator. I'm not sure we shouldn't
just go ahead with O'Brien and forget the cosmetic approach with
the Congressmen.
NORTH DAKOTA
I have had a couple of discussions with State Chairman Ben Clayburgh
but have nothing concrete. I suggest that we approach Senator
Milt Young for his ideas, as his nose is a little out of joint and
this might make him feel more a part of the team.
-7-
MONTANA
I have no good suggestions at this time.
WYOMING
I have talked to State Chairman Dave Kennedy and will be talking
to Governor Hathaway. I need to chat with Senator Hansen as
well.
COLORADO
Bob Flanigan, GOP State Chairman, recommends we use Governor Love
as our state chairman and then use one of several bright young
faces as the executive director. This isn't a bad idea considering
Love's popularity in the state.
OKLAHOMA
There is considerable feuding going on in the state GOP organization.
I have asked all sides for suggestions and perhaps we can find some-
one who gets along with all.
TEXAS
The State Party is weak and has even weaker leadership at the top.
In addition they are preoccupied with John Tower's race. My
suggestion is that we build a strong Republican, Independent,
Democrat Citizens organization with the help of Secretary Connally.
NEW MEXICO
I have had several suggestions, but have no good names at this time.
ARIZONA
State Chairman Henry Rosenzweig is recommending Jim O'Connor, a
Democrat, lawyer, and close friend of Herb Kalmbach. I haven't
had a chance to talk with Kleindienst about this as yet.
-8-
CALIFORNIA
You have been handling the delicate negotiations here.
NEVADA
Bob Mardian says that Paul Laxalt would accept the job as State
Chairman. I don't think we can improve on that.
UTAH
I have no recommendations at this time.
IDAHO
Lt. Gov. Jack Murphy was our man in Idaho in 1968 and State
Chairman Roland Wilbur suggests we use him again. Mardian is
not very high on Murphy.
OREGON
Wendell Wyatt is on board as our state chairman. We will tie
in the 1968 Nixon people so that we have the broadest possible
base.
WASHINGTON
Former National Committeeman Bob Timm and State Chairman Earl
Davenport have suggested that we use Luke Williams, a conserva-
tive businessman from Spokane, who has good relations with the
money people and Governor Evans.
ALASKA
Edith Holm, National Committeewonan and the person Mardian has the
most confidence in, says Bob Ward, former Secretary of State,
would be the strongest person to head our campaign. Holm, herself,
wouldn't be bad and it would give us a woman chairman.
HAWAII
Bill Quinn, former Governor and now President of the Dole Pineapple
organization, would probably be our best bet. I haven't talked with
Senator Fong as yet and that base should be touched.
AN
5"
August 27, 1971
0-102
By
3-24-82
CONF IDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
Pursuant to our discussion, enclosed is a copy of Andrew Glass'
article on polling and the 1972 campaign which appeared in the
August 14 edition of the National Journal.
Also enclosed is Bob Marik's memorandum relating to this
article. As he indicates, it seems that some individuals in
the Administration who knew something about our plans discus-
sed them in detail with the authow.
JEB S. MAGRUDER
Enclosures
bcc: Mr. Haldeman
CONFIDENTIAL
CITIZENS FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
CONFIDENTIAL
SUITE 272
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W.
August 26, 1971
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20000
(202) 333.0920
MEMORANDUM FOR: JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
ROBERT H. MARIK
SUBJECT:
POLLING ARTICLE BY ANDREW GLASS
IN THE NATIONAL JOURNAL - 8/14/71
Mr. Glass has done a comprehensive job of surveying the
entire field of polling for the '72 campaign, for Demo-
crats as well as Republicans. The article reflects sub-
stantial inside information about our own polling plans.
For example, you, Gordon Strachan, Ed DeBolt and I are
mentioned by name as being involved in shaping the cam-
paign research effort. Reference is made to the polling
vendor meetings which we held on August 9 and 10.
You will recall that after I contacted each of the six
vendors under consideration for the August 9-10 meetings,
I sent a letter of confirmation which included an enumer-
ation of several aspects of polling in which we were
particularly interested. Information copies of that letter,
as well as the schedule of meetings for both days, were
sent to Peter Flanigan, Gordon Strachan, Ed DeBolt and
Bill Low of the RNC, and yourself. There was some concern
that these communications had been leaked to Mr. Glass.
However, several ommissions in the National Journal article
strongly suggest the contrary:
1) The article states that the meetings were sche-
duled during August 9-11, whereas they were actually sche-
duled only on August 9 and 10.
2) The article listed five vendors who were invited.
The sixth, Market Facts, was not mentioned.
3) Peter Flanigan was not mentioned in the article.
Although the letter did not mention him by name, he was
discussed in the telephone conversations with the vendors,
because the meetings were originally scheduled to be held
in his office.
-2-
4) My name was grossly misspelled.
The article makes reference to such sources as
"Administration spokesman,' "aide to the President," a
Presidential aide,' "another White House official" and
"GOP official," as well as to Harry Dent by name. There
is no evidence that Mr. Glass found any source of infor-
mation in the campaign organization. When he called here
he was told that you were the only authorized spokesman
for the Citizens Committee, and although he attempted to
contact others of us, the calls were not returned. I
understand also that Ed DeBolt, Gordon Strachan and Dave
Derge were contacted during the preparation of this arti-
cle but similarly did not return the telephone calls.
This leak, whatever the source, was not as harmful as it
might have been. We will attempt to further tighten our
security to prevent similar instances in the future.
FOR YOUR INFORMATION
Political Report/Pollsters prowl nation as candidates
use opinion surveys to plan 72 campaign
by Andrew J. Glass
From the White House to small-town
secrecy, currently is seeking to define
"You're finding more people run-
8/14/71
1693
NATIONAL
America, the political pollsters are
polling needs for Mr. Nixon's 1972
ning for political office with less polit-
JOURNAL
once more on the prowl.
campaign.
ical experience than ever before. So
CPR 1971
A National Journal survey of po-
In addition, the President requests
they really don't have an intuitive base
litical pollsters and their clients reveals
and receives regular "weathervane"
of how well they'll do. They don't
that the business-which, like politics
polls that are commissioned for him
have the knowledge of their state that
itself, is as much an art as a science-
by friends and admirers, mainly in the
a guy who has been in politics a long
is deeply rooted in the campaign proc-
business world. Similar polls were
time has. But they know enough that
ess. It revealed also that many can-
taken on a regular basis for Presidents
they need to know. So the pollsters
didates still are reluctant to say pub-
Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson.
are all selling."
licly how heavily they rely on polls.
But the political polling profession
At its higher rungs, the polling pro-
Like people who never walk under
does not subsist alone on surveys
fession remains a tight-knit group. It
ladders even though they say they are
taken by the White House or by the
divides, almost equally, into those
not superstitious, candidates go on
President's Democratic rivals.
who poll only for Republicans, those
buying the polls. With the approach
Robert Teeter, the White House
who poll only for Democrats and those
of the 1972 national elections, spend-
liaison man for Detroit-based Market
who poll for both.
ing for political surveys is likely to
Opinion Research, a Republican-ori-
But, as pollster Michael Rowan
match or exceed 1968 levels.
ented polling firm, said: "One of the
said, "we're all one club."
In his book, Financing the 1968
big changes we're seeing is the level
Nixon
Election (D.C. Heath and Company,
down to which polling is used.
1971), Herbert E. Alexander estimated
"It used to be that there were a few
In seeking the Presidency in 1968,
that spending for public opinion polls
sophisticated gubernatorial and sena-
Richard Nixon spent about $500,000
for all candidates at all levels in 1968
torial campaigns using it. Now, almost
for the longest, most costly and most
came to $6 million.
all of them are in it. Many Congress-
complex polling project in campaign
The estimate, based on 1,200 polls
men use it. And it pops up in state
history. Although there is no real
which cost an average of $5,000, is
legislatures and in city races."
battle for the nomination in sight, the
conservative; one comprehensive state-
Oliver A. Quayle III, who has taken
Nixon White House has budgeted
wide poll can cost $15,000.
polls for most of the Democrats now
$500,000 for polling research for the
Top to bottom: The White House re-
in the Senate, said: "It's now almost
1972 campaign.
ceives a steady stream of public opin-
SOP. If you're interested in what
Organization: In the White House it-
ion survey results. Some of them are
people think, this is the best way to
self, the gathering of poll information
commissioned, directly or indirectly,
find out. People who have never
is supervised by H. R. Haldeman, the
by the White House itself; others re-
polled before are polling now. It's
President's chief of staff, who has a
sult from "piggybacking"- adding
standard procedure."
background in advertising and market
questions to polls already commis-
The "new breed": A veteran Demo-
research. (For a report on Haldeman,
sioned by Republican candidates or to
cratic campaign manager believes the
see No. 10, p. 513.)
polls taken for other purposes.
pollsters' growth is based in part on a
Campaign planning beyond the
A campaign task force, working in
new breed of politician. As he put it:
White House gates is being handled
POLL?
PROCESSOR
RANDOM
ANALYST
SAMPLES
POLL
TAKER
NEWS MEDIA
POLITICIANS
by Citizens for the Reelection of the
The President and his top staff also
1968 for Mr. Nixon mounted by
8/14/71
1695
NATIONAL
President, which is, in effect, a White
have access to other private polls, con-
Joseph Bachelder, who has since re-
JOURNAL
House political task force: by the Re-
ducted for Republican senatorial or
tired as a political polling consultant.
CPR 1971
publican National Committee: and by
gubernatorial candidates as well as by
Decision Making Information Inc.,
Attorney General John N. Mitchell.
political pressure groups friendly to
based in Santa Ana and Los Angeles,
A coordinating committee is shap-
the Nixon Administration. These polls
which polled in 1970 for both Gov.
ing the campaign research effort,
are supplied without charge; the Chil-
Ronald Reagan, R-Calif., and Gov.
which will rely heavily on public opin-
ton surveys are underwritten by the
Nelson A. Rockefeller, R-N.Y.
ion surveys.
Republican National Committee.
Market Opinion Research of
The committee includes Jeb S.
A pollster who declined to be quot-
Detroit, which advised George Rom-
Magruder, who has been detached
ed by name said, "A lot of the (White
ney early in 1968 to scuttle his cam-
from the office of Herbert G. Klein,
House) work that was done in the past
paign for the Republican Presidential
director of communications for the
three years was done by individual
nomination. The company has done
executive branch, to manage the "Cit-
candidates who were doing it as an
some weathervane polling after Mr.
izens" operation; Robert Marrick,
accommodation."
Nixon's television appearances.
Magruder's associate in the "Citizens"
The White House intends to repay
Opinion Research Corp. of Prince-
office; Gordon Strachan, a personal
some of these favors during the 1972
ton, N.J., which handled the 1960 and
staff assistant to Haldeman, and Ed-
campaign. A Presidential aide, speak-
1968 Nixon campaigns, as well as the
ward S. DeBolt, the RNC's deputy
ing for "background," said: "When
1964 Presidential campaign of Sen.
chairman for research and political
Nixon is ready to go into an area, an
Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz. (ORC's
organization.
offer for a 'piggyback' (poll) will be
billings from political clients in 1968
The Nixon campaign steering com-
made. I think in almost every case, it
amounted to $600,000-$450,000 from
mittee also is utilizing an outside con-
will be the Nixon White House that
the Nixon campaign.)
sultant on polling techniques-David
will offer it down rather than its being
David Derge, although a regular
R. Derge, 42, a political scientist and
offered up (to the President)."
White House visitor, did not attend
executive vice president of the Uni-
"Campaign firms: The White House
the presentation sessions, which were
versity of Indiana in Bloomington.
scheduled a series of meetings Aug.
held in the offices of the "Citizens"
Magruder is the key polling plan-
9-11 to review the capabilities of more
group, one block from the White
ner. As Harry S. Dent, special counsel
than a half-dozen Republican-oriented
House. Derge is known to be a strong
to the President for political affairs,
polling firms.
partisan of ORC.
put it: "In this shop, Jeb is the guy
"All of them were approached with
Split verdict: A decision on the allo-
who's the polling man."
the idea of contributing to the cam-
cation of polling resources for the
Magruder declined to comment for
paign as a sole or prime contractor,"
campaign is expected to be submitted
publication on polling or on any other
said a White House political aide.
to the President for his review and
aspect of White House campaign
"But it's not inconceivable that
approval by the end of August.
planning. One official, who asked to
Haldeman will decide 'I don't want
Whether or not a prime polling con-
be identified only as an Administra-
any one person to know everything, so
tractor is chosen, a White House of-
tion spokesman, said: "We don't want
I'm going to parcel it out and these
ficial said that polling arrangements
to get into even what we're thinking
people can just like it.' He's like that."
for the 1972 campaign may not emerge
about doing
They (the Democrats)
Another White House official noted
in a clear-cut manner.
know something is going on. Let them
that "the Nixon campaign is being or-
The official said: "Knowing the
find out by working for it."
ganized on a priority basis and there-
President, he never puts all his mar-
White House polls: Mr. Nixon has
fore the need for national pollsters is
bles in one basket. He will want
had access to a steady stream of pri-
minimized." The emphasis, he said,
additional head-to-head and special-
vate polling information since he took
will be on disregarding those states
issue polling.
office. These polls have kept the Pres-
where there is "no opportunity" and
"He never even tells anybody about
ident abreast of domestic political
concentrating on the big electoral
it. But you always have somebody on
moods and furnished him with insights
states "which will either win or lose
the side who will do a weathervane
into changing trends on such questions
the election for us."
sampling after a (Presidential) night
as the public attitude toward admis-
Each of the polling concerns which
on television That's just Nixon.
sion of the People's Republic of China
made presentations to the White
All of us get used to that. There's al-
to the United Nations.
House was screened in advance by
ways an edge."
An almost continuous polling effort
Haldeman. The group includes:
Another White House official who
for the White House has been con-
Cambridge Opinion Studies Inc.,
will be involved in the campaign, also
ducted, in secrecy. by Chilton Re-
headed by Tully Plesser and based in
speaking privately, said that, in all
search Services, of Philadelphia, a di-
New York City. Plesser's political
probability. some of the more sensi-
vision of Chilton Co. An aide to the
polling assignments have ranged from
tive polling results will go to the Pres-
President said. "The outside pollster
Sen. W. E. Brock's successful cam-
ident directly, perhaps through Halde-
(John H. Kofron, Chilton's senior vice
paign in Tennessee last year to John
man, without being circulated to the
president) consults almost always di-
V. Lindsay's uphill mayoral campaign
White House political staff.
rectly with Haldeman, although on a
in New York in 1969.
"There are some things-like how
nonsensitive matter he may talk with
Chilton Research Services, which
does Agnew affect the ticket-tha
Strachan or Higby.' (Lawrence M.
conducts its surveys by telephone from
might be asked that even Mitchell
Higby is Haldeman's administrative
Philadelphia. Chilton also handled the
won't get." the official said. (Mr.
assistant.)
mechanics of an intelligence effort in
Nixon's choice of Spiro T. Agnew as
his Vice Presidential running mate in
8/14/71
1697
NATIONAL
1968 was influenced by ORC polls
which showed him running better
Establishing the Tolerances
JOURNAL
©
CPR 1971
alone than with any possible "name"
Pollsters commonly encounter skeptical members of campaign teams
in the Republican Party. Mr. Nixon
who suggest that by interviewing more people-or perhaps another set of
decided to bypass better-known per-
people-the pollster would have produced different results.
sonalities for Agnew, who was then
George H. Gallup, founder of the Gallup Poll and now semi-retired,
Governor of Maryland.)
has an answer for these skeptics: "The next time you go to the doctor for
Utility: Although White House of-
a test, why not have him test all your blood?"
ficials seek to dampen publicity on
Gallup says that "no major poll in the history of this country ever went
their polling efforts, they say privately
wrong because too few people were reached." But, he says, many have
that polling information, while in
gone astray because of the way those persons were selected.
plentiful supply, does not play a crit-
Samples: Some political pollsters, including Gallup, interview people in
ical role in White House political de-
randomly chosen clusters, using what is known as a probability sample.
cision making.
(For his nationwide poll, Gallup conducts about five interviews in each of
"Nixon has never had much use for
320 voting precincts, chosen on a random basis.)
polls," a personal friend of the Pres-
Others use a quota sample, a less costly technique in which people are
sident said. "He only pays attention
chosen to be interviewed on the basis of specific characteristics in the
when they happen to agree with his
same proportion as they appear in the population or whatever "universe"
gut feelings. And he likes situations
the pollster is studying. If 12 per cent of the "universe" is Negro, for ex-
where the polls do not put him under
ample, a quota sample would include 12 Negroes in every 100 people
pressure, such as his Agnew decision
interviewed.
of 1968."
Gallup and other published pollsters abandoned quota samples after
A GOP official agreed with this
1948 when polls taken that way indicated that Thomas E. Dewey would
assessment and added: "Most of those
defeat Harry S Truman in the Presidential race.
people (the White House staff) just
Error: A probability sample permits the pollster to measure sample error
look at the head-to-head results-at
-the maximum extent to which the survey results may differ from a sur-
just two numbers. It's very sad. Most
vey of the entire population. Quota samples do not permit statistical
of them just flip to the last page (of
measurement of error.
the polling report) to see, in summary,
The tables below indicate the range of error for samples of various
how we are doing."
sizes. Statistically, the error will be no larger than the figures in the tables
Democrats
95 per cent of the time. As the figures indicate, the size of the sample must
be increased as much as four times to cut the margin of error by half.
Of Mr. Nixon's potential Demo-
Table I shows the maximum error-plus and minus-in probability
cratic opponents in 1972, only the cur-
samples of varying sizes and division. The larger the sample, the smaller
rent front-runner, Sen. Edmund S.
the error; the more evenly people divide, the higher the possible error.
Muskie, of Maine, is now engaged in
In comparing two percentage results, another question arises: How
polling research. Most of the other
large must the difference be for it to reflect a genuine distinction, beyond
Democratic Presidential hopefuls have
the range of statistical error?
so far given little or no thought to
Tables II and III show the number of percentage points to be dis-
commissioning public opinion surveys
counted in comparing differences in polls. Table II is used for percentages
for their campaigns.
near 20 (or lower) and 80 (or higher): Table III is used for percentages
Muskie: "People have been waiting
near 50.
around for our polls before moving,"
Thus, if 50 per cent of those interviewed in 1969 and 40 per cent in 1971
said Anna Navarro, 24, the Muskie
responded in the same way to a question, Table III can be consulted to
campaign's full-time polling consult-
determine whether the difference is statistically meaningful.
ant. "The question is how to project
what people want to see."
Table I
(size of sample)
1,500
1,000
750
600
400
200
100
An initial round of telephone-
Results near 10%
2
2
3
3
4
5
7
interview polling for Muskie was com-
Results near 20%
2
3
4
4
5
7
9
pleted in late July by Independent
Results near 30%
3
4
4
4
6
8
10
Research Associates Inc., a Wash-
Results near 40%
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
ington-based firm headed by William
Results near 50%
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
R. Hamilton, who has worked mainly
Results near 60%
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
for Democrats in the South. Before
Results near 70%
3
4
4
4
6
8
10
Results near 80%
2
3
4
4
5
7
joining the Muskie staff in January,
9
Results near 90%
2
2
3
3
4
5
7
Miss Navarro worked for Hamilton.
Media- While it is unusual to have
Table 11: Percentages near 20, 80
Table III: Percentages near 50
a pollster on a campaign staff, Miss
sample
1,500
750
600
400
200
sample
1,500
750
600
400
200
Navarro said she felt the arrangement
1,500
4
4
5
6 8
1,500
5
5
6
7
10
benefited the Senator. She saw her
750
4
5
5
6
8
750
5
6
7
7
10
role as the "realist"- the person who
600
5
5
6
6
8
600
6
7
7
7
10
400
6
6
6
7
8
400
7
must "knock down theories and pre-
7
7
8
10
200
8
8
8
8
10
200
10
10
10
10
12
sent unpalatable news."
In that capacity, Miss Navarro has
SOURCE: Paul K. Perry, president of The Gallup Organization
8/14/71
1699
been working closely with Robert D.
"Since when did a 24-year-old kid
"My own horseback judgment is
NATIONAL
Squier, 36, head of Communications
know something?" said a veteran poll-
that our supporters ought to be able
JOURNAL
Co. of Washington, D.C., and Mus-
ster who works mainly for Democrats,
to tell us what's on the minds of
CPR 1971
kie's media consultant. (For a report
referring to Miss Navarro. "I couldn't
people. Also, people are much more
on Squier and the role of political
handle a Presidential campaign when
nationally oriented; you don't have
media consultants, see Vol. 2. No. 40,
I was 24. I think it's silly."
the kind of Balkanization on issues
P. 2135.)
Another pollster remarked private-
that you used to have."
"Squier is involved in the whole
ly: "Basing a major campaign on this
Hart nevertheless said that the Mc-
process," Miss Navarro said. "We
type of information in a primary fight
Govern forces probably would poll in
work as a team and talk about what
is a terribly risky thing to do, because
Wisconsin and Oregon "to find out
his data needs are. Polling is moving
if Muskie falls on his face in Florida,
what issues predominate" there. Hart
more toward a media orientation be-
he's not going to get up again. If they
said, "I think that would be worth the
cause people are getting their infor-
are going to have a research program
outlay. But that's January or Febru-
mation through the tube."
like that, how are they going to run
ary."
Meanwhile, she said, "The Senator
the country?"
J. Keefe, administra-
is always badgering us for informa-
tion." Muskie plans to receive in-depth
surveys from five or six primary states
by January 1972. In addition, Muskie
requires polling research on such po-
litical questions as how closely should
he affiliate himself with Chicago May-
or Richard J. Daley, a controversial
figure but a potential source of dele-
gate support in Illinois.
Telephone-The Hamilton firm
uses a "tight screen," seeking to reach
only persons who intend to vote in
selected 1972 Democratic primaries.
In upholding their telephone-
based techniques, Hamilton and Miss
Navarro explain how they attempt to
Tully Plesser
Robert Teeter
Anna Navarro
keep the sample unbiased and to es-
Miss Navarro said: "It's too new,
tive assistant and a top campaign
tablish a good rapport during the half-
and conventional wisdom says it's no
planner for Sen. Birch Bayh, of
hour interviews. The technique also
good. Yet I have a gut feeling for what
Indiana, said the Senator strongly be-
costs about 60 per cent less than field
I'm after; you have to know how to
lieves in taking polls, but, in light of
interviews of comparable size-a
play with it."
his "low-recognition profile, there's
major consideration in the money-
After the round of open-ended tele-
not much point in taking them now."
short Muskie campaign.
phone questioning, Miss Navarro said
Keefe said he had been "picking the
For the Muskie polls, numbers are
she is more convinced than ever that
brains" of two pollsters, John F.
gleaned from telephone directories in
the system works well and will provide
Kraft and Quayle, "both of whom are
the areas to be surveyed and several
the kind of data the Senator needs.
trying to get our business."
digits are changed before the call is
The non-pollers: Other Democrats
"When we go into (the Florida) pri-
made. This ensures that unlisted num-
who are either in or at the edge of the
mary situation, we will poll three or
bers will be represented in the sample.
battle for the party's Presidential
four months out," Keefe said.
(In Los Angeles, 35 per cent of all
nomination have not yet commission-
Kennedy-"We have no reason to
residential telephones are unlisted; in
ed any private polling. The Demo-
poll," said Richard C. Drayne, press
New York, 20 per cent.)
cratic National Committee, still in
secretary to Sen. Edward M. Kennedy,
The Hamilton interviewers call back
debt from the 1968 campaign, has no
of Massachusetts.
three times if no one answers; they do
plans to poll, but David A. Cooper,
"My boss reads polls rather avidly.
not always interview the person who
the DNC's director of research, said
He's pretty good at interpreting them.
answers the phone. They also employ
he is prepared to offer technical poll-
But we don't pull our own. There are
a toll-free "verification number,"
ing advice to any Democrat seeking
other people who pull them for you,
which most people ask for but which
office in 1972. (None of the Presiden-
or maybe send you results, but we've
only a minority actually call. This
tial hopefuls has contacted him.)
not commissioned any. There's no
keeps their rejection rate to 5 per cent.
'We've seen some pri-
point in paying $40,000 for a poll just
Criticism In general, pollsters for
vate polls that other people have
to see whether you were right on an
Democratic candidates have shunned
done," said Gary W. Hart, campaign
issue."
telephone polling, and the Muskie
director for Sen. George S. McGovern,
Humphrey- In the 1968 Presidential
techniques have elicited criticism from
of South Dakota. "The reason we're
campaign, Hubert H. Humphrey, the
established pollsters. They wonder, in
not doing it is that, first of all. it's
Democratic nominee, spent $262,000
private, whether Hamilton, who has
too early and, second, it costs too
on polls taken by Quayle and five
been polling since 1963, can "go the
much money and, thirdly, they won't
smaller firms.
distance" in a Muskie Presidential
tell us anything we don't already
Now that he is in the Senate. ac-
campaign.
know
cording to Jack McDonald, his press
8/14/71
1701
Opinion Firms in the United States
NATIONAL
JOURNAL
© CPR 1971
ident): 4000 Albemarle St. NW,
Tower Building, Little Rock,
Response Analysis Corp.; Dr.
Washington. D.C. 20016; (202)
Ark. 72201; (501) 374-0605.
Herbert 1. Abelson (president):
362-5056.
Joseph Napolitan Associates Inc.;
1101 State Rd., Princeton, N.J.
Institute for Motivational Research;
Joseph Napolitan (president):
08540; (609) 921-3333.
Ernest Dichter (president); Al-
1028 Connecticut Ave. NW,
Responsive Research Corp.; Peter
bany Post Road, Croton-on-
Washington, D.C. 20036; (202)
K. Simonds (president): 7 Water
Hudson, N.Y. 10520; (914)
296-3780.
St., Boston, Mass. 02109; (617)
271-4721.
National Analysts Inc.; Peter R.
742-3582.
Institute of American Research;
Vroon (chairman); 1015 Chest-
The Roper Organization Inc.;
Stephen J. Kovacik Jr. (presi-
nut St., Philadelphia, Pa. 19107;
Burns W. Roper (president); One
dent); 88 East Broad St. Colum-
(215) 627-8109.
Park Ave., New York, N.Y.
bus, Ohio 43215; (614) 221-2062.
National Opinion Research Cen-
10016; (212) 679-3523.
International Research Associates
ter; Norman M. Bradburn (di-
W. R. Simmons Associates; W. R.
Inc.; Helen S. Dinerman (chair-
rector); University of Chicago,
Simmons (president): 235 East
man); 1270 Avenue of the Amer-
6030 South Ellis Ave., Chicago,
42nd St., New York, N.Y.
icas, New York, N.Y. 10020;
III. 60637; (312) 684-5600. T#
10017; (212) 986-7700.
(212) 581-2010.
Opinion Research Corp.; Joseph C.
Sindlinger and Co. Inc.; Albert E.
Gordon L. Joseph and Associates;
Bevis (chairman); North Har-
Sindlinger (president): Harvard
Gordon L. Joseph (president);
rison St., Princeton, N.J. 08540;
and Yale Aves., Swarthmore,
1510 Veterans Memorial Boule-
(609) 924-5900.
Pa. 19081: (215) 544-8260.
vard, Metairie, La. 70005; (504)
Opinion Research Laboratory; Guy
Strategy Research; Richard W.
835-0635.
E. Rainboth (president); 2108
Tobin Jr. (president): 4141 N.
John F. Kraft Inc.; John F. Kraft
North Pacific, Seattle, Wash.
Miami Ave., Miami, Fla. 33127;
(president); 30 6th St. SE, Wash-
98013; (206) 632-9274.
(305) 751-2216.
ington, D.C. 20003; (202) 547-
Opinion Research of California;
Suncoast Opinion Surveys; Rich-
7080. *
Don M. Muchmore (chairman);
ard H. Funsch (president); P.O.
W. H. Long Marketing Inc.; W. H.
1232 Belmont Ave., Long Beach,
Box 1121, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Long (president); 122 Keeling
Calif. 90804; (213) 434-5715.
33731; (813) 894-4560.
Road East, Greensboro, N.C.
Political Surveys and Analysis Inc.;
Survey and Research Services Inc.;
27410; (919) 292-4146.
Charles W. Roll Jr. (president);
Dorinda T. Duggan (president);
Louis, Bowles and Grace Inc.; Alex
53 Bank St., Princeton, N.J.
2400 Massachusetts Ave., Cam-
Louis (chairman); 1433 Motor
08540; (609) 924-5670.
bridge, Mass. 02140; (617) 864-
St., Dallas, Tex. 75207; (214)
Public Affairs Analysts Inc.; Jo-
7794.
637-4520.
seph Napolitan (president); Mi-
Survey Research Sciences Inc.;
Samuel Lubell; 3200 New Mexico
chael Rowan (executive vice
Richard R. Stone (president);
Ave. NW, Washington, D.C.
president): 1028 Connecticut
11411 North Central Express-
20016; (202) 362-3230. #
Ave. NW, Washington, D.C.
way, Dallas, Tex. 75231; (214)
Market Facts Inc.; David K. Har-
20036; (202) 296-6024.
691-0578.
din (president); 100 S. Wacker
The Public Pulse Worldwide Inc. (a
Surveys and Research Corp.; Li-
Drive, Chicago, III. 60606; (312)
subsidiary of Daniel Starch and
bert Ehrman (executive vice
332-2686.
Staff Inc.); Oscar B. Lubow
president): 1828 L St. NW,
Market Opinion Research; Fred-
(president): Mamaroneck, N.Y.
Washington, D.C. 20036; (202)
erick P. Currier (president); 327
10543; (914) 698-0800.
296-1935.
John R, Detroit, Mich. 48226;
Publicom Inc.; Gerald D. Hursh
Wallaces Farmer; Richard J.
(313) 963-2414.
(president): 1300 Connecticut
Pommrehn (research director);
Market Research Field Interview-
Ave. NW. Washington, D.C.
1912 Grand Ave., Des Moines,
ing Service; Marian R. Ange-
20005; (202) 293-1644.
Iowa 50305; (515) 243-6181. #
letti (director); 3015 East Thom-
Oliver A. Quayle III and Co.
Joe B. Williams Research; Joe B.
as Road, Phoenix, Ariz. 85016;
Inc.; (a wholly owned subsidiary
Williams (research consultant):
(602) 956-2500.
of the Minneapolis Star and
Elmwood, Neb. 68349; (402)
Marketing Evaluations Inc.; Jack
Tribune Co.): Oliver A. Quayle
994-5395.
E. Landis (president): Cy Chai-
III (president): 141 Parkway
Daniel Yankelovich Inc.; Daniel
kin (senior vice president); 14
Rd., Bronxville. N.Y. 10708:
Yankelovich (president): 575
Vanderventer Ave., Port Wash-
(212) 295-0779.
Madison Ave., New York, N.Y.
ington, N.Y. 11050; (516) 767-
Research Services Inc.; John W.
10022; (212) 752-7500. #
4540; (212) 357-7405.
Emery (president); 1441 Welton
Marplan Research Inc.; F. J. Van
St., Denver, Colo. 80202; (303)
member of the National Council on
Bortel (president): 485 Lexing-
244-8045.
:
Public Polls
ton Ave., New York, N.Y. 10017;
Research Systems Inc.; R. B. Col-
non-profit and/or academic
(212) 697-8788.
lier (president): 1314 Burch
results are always publicly published
Mid-South Opinion Surveys; Eu-
Drive, Evansville, Ind. 47711;
gene Newsom (president): 1750
(812) 867-2463.
compiled by Ann Northrop
1702
8/14/71
secretary, "There's no activity of any
Techniques
AMPAC, see Vol. 2. No. 31, p. 1659.)
NATIONAL
kind. He doesn't have advance
In Barabba's view, "A critical abil-
JOURNAL
CPR 1971
men. He doesn't have money men.
The late Elmo Roper, a pioneer
ity of a good (polling) firm is to have
He doesn't have delegate people. He
pollster, said that the polling business
experience in overcoming the hesi-
doesn't have pollsters."
sat on a three-legged stool: sampling,
tancy on the part of some campaign
Jackson- A no-polling report also
interviewing and interpretation.
managers to really make use of this in-
came from the office of Sen. Henry
This base has remained constant
formation. If you accept a campaign
M. Jackson, of Washington, whose
since Roper began polling in the mid-
as an economic concept-that is, you
supporters are gearing up for a major
1930s. But the kind of information
are going to attempt to allocate lim-
effort in next March's Florida pri-
that sophisticated politicians are seek-
ited resources in the most efficient
mary.
ing and the kind of techniques that
way this information is cru-
S. Sterling Munro Jr.. Jackson's
pollsters are using to obtain it for
cial."
administrative assistant, said that
them have changed profoundly.
Costs and timing: Thomas W. Ben-
"When your investment is zero, your
A Midwestern Senator said, "Quite
ham, vice president of Opinion Re-
cost-benefit ratio is 100 per cent."
frankly, the trial heats and the stock
search and its liaison man with the
Sharing the burden: At a dinner
question about approval is probably
White House, said: "If you're running
meeting of Presidential candidates,
the least valuable, so far as I'm con-
a campaign where you're going to
called by party chairman Lawrence F.
cerned, because there isn't a thing you
spend $500,000, you better put 10 per
O'Brien July 14, Muskie proposed
can do with that kind of information."
cent aside for polling research, be-
undertaking a pooled public opinion
(The Senator, who is up for reelection
cause it can make the other 90 per
survey, utilizing a single pollster, as a
in 1972, will be polling heavily, but he
cent twice or three times more effi-
means of saving campaign funds.
does not want his constituents to
cient.
The Muskie plan will be studied
know about it because "it weakens my
"You might want to do a 'base
further in staff meetings, but it was
posture.")
study' early in the campaign year.
not greeted with enthusiasm.
Utility: William Hamilton, now poll-
This could be an interview that lasts
None of the dark-horse candidates
ing for Muskie, said that private polls
45 minutes to an hour and it's a big,
-such as Sen. Fred R. Harris, of
can tell candidates what issues are im-
expensive undertaking. But, from that,
Oklahoma, and Rep. Wilbur D. Mills,
portant enough to change voting deci-
we can do selective studies. We can
of Arkansas-are having any polling
sions; whether these issues can be
check on changing issues.
done for them, and they are not in-
welded into a campaign theme; and
"And then we can do a small-scale
terested in paying an equal share
how the over-all political climate, in-
telephone effort, re-interviewing cer-
of the cost of a joint survey- the for-
cluding the other candidates in a race,
tain people (a technique known as
mula that Muskie's staff regards as
will affect the outcome.
panelback), to see if they have changed
the most equitable.
(Pollster Tully Plesser said his polls
their minds. You can develop a so-
All pollsters interviewed by Na-
revealed that a referendum on liquor-
phisticated tool and it can still have
tional Journal opposed the shared-
by-the-drink was a major factor in the
good economy to it."
data proposal, although they did not
senatorial contest in Texas in 1970,
Costs of seemingly comparable sur-
want to say so publicly for fear of
because of the voters who were at-
veys can vary as much as 30 per cent,
offending Muskie, whose business
tracted to the polls by the liquor is-
depending on the procedures, the
they believe is still up for grabs. One
sue.)
overhead and the profit margin.
pollster said, "You can't do that any
Interest groups who are seeking to
Senatorial and gubernatorial candi-
more than you could work for Ford
affect the outcome of an election may
dates commonly budget $30,000 for
and General Motors. It just seems un-
take polls that elicit complex data.
polling research over the course of a
natural to me."
"COPE can buy 10 surveys and de-
campaign. One statewide poll in a big
liver. them to the candidates," said
state may cost $10,000 to $15,000: a
pollster John Kraft. "It gives them a
survey of a congressional district can
Feedback
certain control over the campaign."
cost up to $10,000. (The techniques of
Oliver A. Quayle III takes con-
The Committee on Political Educa-
conducting both polls are essentially
fidential polls for many leading
tion, the political action arm of the
the same: the only major saving is in
Democratic politicians. He also
AFL-CIO, has been taking polls since
travel.)
takes polls for Harper's magazine,
1958. (For a report on COPE, see Vol.
"People are beginning to see that
which owns Quayle's polling com-
2. No. 37. p. 1963.)
this kind of data is much more valu-
pany outright and which, in turn, is
Similarly, the American Medical
able if you can establish a trend," said
owned by the Minneapolis Star and
Political Action Committee (AM-
Teeter of Detroit's Market Opinion
Tribune Co.
PAC), through its state organizations,
Research. This, of course, entails mul-
"We bounce things off Ollie,"
spent more than $400,000 to poll for
tiple interviews: in the field, interview-
said William S. Blair, the Harper's
Republicans between the 1968 and
ers are paid $2 an hour or more, plus
publisher. "In other words. here's a
1970 elections. Vincent P. Barabba,
expenses.
guy who wants to do a piece about
chairman of Decision Making Infor-
DMI's Barabba said: "The diffi-
a particular politician. We might
mation Inc., a California-based AM-
culty you have in measuring costs be-
send the writer up to talk to Quayle.
PAC pollster, said: "Those guys (at
tween companies is knowing whether
Obviously, Ollie knows a hell of a
AMPAC) have done as much to im-
you're measuring apples and apples or
lot about individual politicians in
prove the systematic analysis of the
apples and oranges. There are a lot of
this country."
political process as any organization
ways to cut costs in this kind of re-
in existence today." (For a report on
search. Unfortunately, there is a direct
1704
8/14/71 relationship between costs and qual-
mail out questionnaires (to interview-
"None of the private pollsters do
NATIONAL
ity.'
ers). I also think we get higher cooper-
complete probability sampling be-
JOURNAL
CPR 1971
The product: John Kraft, who has 18
ation rates around the country than is
cause of the prohibitive expense.
years' experience working for both
possible in face-to-face interviews. In
(Quayle noted that this was not the
Democratic and Republican candi-
some areas, you can't get people to go
case for the Gallup Poll and the Har-
dates, said he normally prepares a
in at all."
ris Survey, "because their necks are
written report, about 40 pages in
Cleavage: Telephone survey research
on the line.")
length, of which three-fourths is in-
for politicians has mushroomed with
"You pick up a point to a point-
terpretation. "I'll also supply the
the widespread use of bulk-rate long-
and-a-half of margin with probability
(computer) printouts when I'm asked
distance (WATS) lines and computer-
samples. I've done them when I've
to, but I've had only two such re-
ized random generation of telephone
had to, when I knew I was in a differ-
quests."
numbers. But some members of the
ent ball game."
Kraft, like most other pollsters, pre-
political polling fraternity remain op-
John Kraft and his wife, Fran Far-
fers to discuss results and their mean-
posed to telephone surveys.
rell Kraft, who is also a well-known
ing with the candidate and his staff.
Charles W. Roll Jr., president of
pollster, agreed with Quayle. "There is
"In many cases, it's best to talk it
Political Surveys and Analysis Inc.
no significant difference in the result,"
out," he said.
(PS&A), which has done most of the
Kraft said.
Unfavorable reports can bring com-
polling commissioned by Nelson
Several pollsters disagreed, how-
plications.
Rockefeller, said: "If I were buying
ever. One was PS&A's Roll, who
Teeter recalled: "I had one guy sev-
surveys for a political campaign that
said: "The respectability of quota
eral years ago who had been working
I felt was terribly important, and there
samples went out in 1948, with the
hard for two or three months and got
was enough money, I wouldn't touch
Truman-Dewey election. You don't
a bad poll and just sat in a hotel room
a telephone survey. I have reason to
know what your sample error is. Luck
and drank for about four days. We
believe (from Rockefeller campaigns)
is with them. But it's certainly not
couldn't move him; he was in shock
that some people are far less critical of
enough to hang your hat on, I would
because the poll still showed him 10-
individuals when asked about them
think."
15 points behind. He eventually
over the phone, and that, of course,
ORC's Benham said his firm used
won.
Now, we talk a lot about
creates a different result.
only probability samples. However, he
how to lay bad ones on people before
"If I were involved in a Presidential
said: "In many situations, you can use
we do it. It's a very tricky thing."
campaign, I would throw the tele-
the best scientific probability sample
Developments: Most pollsters inter-
phone away, unless there was an ex-
or a mediocre quota sample and get
viewed by National Journal said they
tremely urgent time factor involved."
the same results-because there's no
recently have started making more ex-
(Roll is an employee of George H.
critical element that would make an
haustive studies of sub-groups and an-
Gallup, who bought PS&A from its
essential difference."
alyzing the response to various issues.
founder, Archibald M. Crossley, in
Assessment
"There's particular interest in the
1970; PS&A uses Gallup's sampling,
young voters in '72," Quayle said.
interviewing and tabulating facilities,
Pollsters and politicians coexist un-
Quayle also reported that he is ask-
which are based solely on field inter-
easily, needing each other and yet
ing more media-related questions.
views.)
aware of each other's limitations.
"It's the sort of question I don't like
DMI's Barabba said: "You can get
Both are victims of a vicious circle
to ask, because I don't think people
more about a person at the door than
in politics: the degree of media expo-
really know how they get their infor-
on the telephone. The telephone's
sure affects poll results; poll results af-
mation. I'm amazed at how little the
great strength is that you get wider
fect the amount of campaign funds
television people know sometimes
distribution of your sample and inter-
that can be raised; campaign funds af-
(about the makeup of their audiences)
view clusters."
fect media exposure.
in a given market. But we're learning
Don M. Muchmore, chairman of
Drawer syndrome: Muchmore thinks
to work better together."
Opinion Research of California, who
campaign managers, more than candi-
ORC's Benham said his firm had
has done comparative studies of tele-
dates, are responsible for poor rela-
been able to shorten substantially the
phone and field interview polls, said
tionships. "We give them a battle
time period from "problem to data"
the field work produces superior re-
plan, and many times they don't want
by using more telephone interviews.
sults and should be used, except in
to use it because they have a feeling
"We've also learned how to weigh
high-urgency polls of national scope.
it's going to go a different way. Some-
them better."
"With no eye-to-eye contact, there's
times they're right: sometimes they're
William M. Longman, president of
no trust," Muchmore said.
wrong. But, more often, they're
Central Surveys Inc., said in a tele-
Sample methods: Political pollsters
wrong."
phone interview from Shenandoah,
also divide over whether to use quota
Another Californian, Vincent Ba-
Iowa, that his firm now was able to
or probability samples. (For a discus-
rabba, said: "We see an awful lot of
provide overnight results to political
sion of sample error. see statistical
what we refer to as the right-hand
clients through arrangements for the
box.)
drawer syndrome. You give a guy a
use of computers at the interview sites.
Quayle said: "Nobody does proba-
survey-you make a fancy presenta-
Robert K. McMillan of Chilton Re-
bility samples, strictly speaking. And
he says, 'Gee, that's great!'
search Services, a proponent of tele-
if you did, it would be obscene, be-
And he opens up the right-hand
phone interviewing, said: "In a day,
cause you'd be charging a guy an arm
drawer of his desk and puts it in there,
you can do here what it would take
and a leg for a greater degree of accu-
and that's the last time it's used.
you four weeks to do if you had to
racy than he needs
"Then, if someone asks what are
you basing all those decisions on, he
group, said: "We got committed to
if potential backers thought Javits
8/14/71
1705
opens up the drawer and says, "Well,
doing the (1968) thing without assess-
could not lose.
NATIONAL
we got a survey.'
ing as much as we should have in ad-
The poll was nevertheless "leaked"
JOURNAL
MOR's Teeter believes the worst is
vance." (For a report on the House
© CPR 1971
to The New York Times for its "band-
over. "Two or three years ago," he
and Senate GOP campaign commit-
wagon" effect and because it showed
said, "we had a real problem with
tees, see Vol. 2, No. 31. p. 2100.)
Javits to be the strongest Republican
guys who were using it for the first
Pressure points: In a profession linked
politician in New York state at the
time and thought they had just bought
closely to the academic community,
time.
themselves magic buttons. With some
but with no entry standards, salesman-
The release of the poll led to a
people, it became a narcotic. If they
ship remains a persistent problem.
charge by O'Dwyer that it was a delib-
didn't know what to do, they had an-
"It's the gut problem in the business,"
erate attempt to influence the New
other poll taken."
said Albert H. Cantril, a Washington-
York Daily News Poll, which was
Getting more: From the client's side, a
based polling consultant. Cantril is the
scheduled to commence canvassing
Democratic Senator said privately: "I
author, with Charles Roll, of Hopes
just after the GOP poll was released.
don't know of anyone around here
and Fears of the American People
While the Javits "leak" was a delib-
who is having polling done and who
(Universe Books, 1971), which is
erate one, candidates often insist that
wouldn't like to get more than he's
based on Gallup research.
a pollster report directly to them in an
getting out of it. But I know it's sim-
Said Cantril: "The only way you
effort to control access to private polls
ply a matter of dollars. They have a
can seek new business is to tear down
on the campaign staff.
product to sell; they have costs."
the other guy's methods and try to
Pollsters and politicians are coming
If finances are often a central prob-
show politicians that they are not get-
increasingly to agree that there is a
lem to the pollster, they are even more
ting anything too useful. There are no
limit to what surveys can accomplish.
of one to the politician. A Republican
teaching materials you can use unless
MOR's Teeter said: "You can't go
Senator from the Northeast said:
you break the confidence of a private
and say to some guy, 'Look, if you go
"There isn't any question that I
(political) client."
out and take this stand, you'll increase
couldn't solve if I wanted to spend
Political pollsters also are encoun-
your support 4 per cent.' That's
$25,000 for a survey."
tering fresh problems in seeking to as-
crazy."
But the difficulties range beyond in-
semble valid public opinion data. An
Progress: If political pollsters are still
sufficient funds. A campaign manager
executive at Chilton Research Services
searching for a firmer foundation,
who has worked with pollsters for
in Philadelphia said: "There's no use
there are nevertheless signs of prog-
many years said privately:
kidding anybody; the cooperative rate
ress.
"I think there's room in this busi-
is decreasing every year. It used to be
Quayle said: "A couple of years
ness for someone who really wants to
20 years ago if we got a 3-per cent re-
ago, everybody was trying to get into
drive it wide open. He could drive all
fusal rate we were concerned about it;
the act. And that's not happening any-
these guys out. For example, why not
today, they are running 10 and 12 per
more. A lot of commercial firms-the
add an entire demographic package
cent.
guys who were researching soap and
with sample electoral analysis and pri-
"It's all part of the misuse of re-
so forth-began to dabble in politics,
ority ranking of states, congressional
search techniques. People today are
looking at it as a new market. But
districts and counties, with cross-data
just more suspicious. You know, a
you've got to know something about
by issues. It's possible with computer
salesman calling up and saying he's
politics in this business. It's an art as
analysis. That's a service I could really
making a survey and the next thing
well as a science."
use."
he's knocking at your door."
Roll believes that what is needed is
In 1968, the National Republican
Dangers: Private polls can cause com-
better liaison between the campaign
Congressional (Campaign) Committee
plications in campaigns that are not
and the "politically sensi-
and its Senate counterpart bought a
always readily apparent. For example,
tive men inside the campaign organi-
$400,000 survey through Datamatics
Sen. Jacob K. Javits, R-N.Y., received
zation who are at the same time highly
Inc., a subsidiary of Spencer-Roberts
a poll from Tully Plesser in 1968 that
sophisticated about the use of polling
and Associates, a California-based
showed Javits leading his Democratic
techniques."
campaign consulting firm. Datamatics
opponent, Paul O'Dwyer, 48-16.
"It's a funny business," another
is now dissolved; at the time, it was
Javits' advisers were hesitant about
well-known pollster said. "When you
headed by Vincent Barabba.
releasing the poll, despite the strong
get all this stuff done, the candidates
Neither the House nor the Senate
lead, for fear it would not be believed
look at it and if it doesn't really agree
committee is scheduling any polling
and would raise a "credibility issue."
with them, they're very suspicious.
projects for 1972. Paul A. Theis, direc-
Yet another consideration was fear
But if it agrees with them, it's the best
tor of public relations for the House
that it would be harder to raise money
poll in America."
CITIZENS FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
Jeb -
John okayed
everything as proposed.
dwill come on full
time in January, &
upo down until
then. I'll proceed
Imad Curing my
Gist in mcanwhile- -
Rita
Call me freday.
magueler/marite
atz
THE WHITE HOUSE
9/7
WASHINGTON
9/8
August 15, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FOLLOW UP
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Check with Magruder regarding complete description of the
$350,000 RNC research project.
Also, follow up with Magruder regarding the Rumsfeld
spokesman resource request for an additional staff man
referred to in my August 2nd memorandum to Mr. Haldeman,
with his question to the side, held in my "Magruder's
Projects" file.
morik 8/17 - Jsmwill have te
goto Evans personally;
it is too touchy per
marik - De Bolt joe
J8m
mariec a + Evans 8/19
De Bale
G
maria 9/2 - memo (De Bolt
on Evans' desk
AG
J8m 9/10
0
Cave -Consul Timmons on Convention
2
will raise Housen w/AG on sat.
00
Dean - report re Caul &Secity.
?
ap Tummons on all Convention
AG wants clear underst
that any WH man is
OK w/ H.
5
oct - mus Adytrs - plant
-
6
Finch - Monagan = possib
- comp man
His P
J8m 7 AG
THE PHILADELPHIA SOCIETY
National Meeting - April 10-11, 1970 - Chicago
Expected Attendance List
Frederic N. Andre, 1604 Center Tower, 600 North Alabama Street, Indiencpolis, Indiana
46204
Edward C. Banfield, 121 Gorfield Street, Watertown, Massachusetts 02172
Mr. and Mrs. Harold M. Baum, Suite 334, 35 East Wacker Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60601
W.F. Berns, 102 requois Place, Ithaca, New York 14850
Mr. and Mrs. Bryan Bernstein, E-327, 1603 East Third Street, Bloomington, Indiana 47401
David R. Bingham, 7801 North Chester, Indianapolis, Indiana 46240
Nr. and Mrs. Denny J. Boggs, 506 Steele, Frankfort, Kentucky 40601
Douglas Caddy, Suite 310, 1729 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006
John F. Callahan, 931 North Lincoln, Addison, Illinois 60101
J. G. Compaigne, Jr., 6755 South Oglesby Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60649
Mr. and Mrs. Albert M. Campbell, 1007 Merchants Bank Bldg., Indianapolis, indiana 46204
Nss. Rosemary G. Compbell, 9 North Perk Street, Hanover, New Hempshire 03755
Dr. and Mrs. William F. Compbell, 3914 Broussard, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70806
Warren L. Coats, Jr., Apartment 601, 5330 South Herper, Chicago, Illinois 60615
Don E. Cope, R. R, 5, Box 549, Greenwood, Indiana 46142
Robert F. Croll, 2332 Prairie Avenue, Evenston, Illinois 60201
Stephen M. Davis, 6474 College Avenue, Indianapolis, Indiana 46220
Fred W. Decker, 827 N.W. 31st Street, Corvallis, Cregon 97330
Nr. and Nrs. Louis H, T. Dehmlow, 1750 North Kingsbury St., Chicago, Illinois 60614
William C. Dennis, Denison University, Granville, Ohio 43023
Leslic Duvall, 1126 Fidelity Building, Indianapolis, Indiana 46204
M. Stanton Evens, The indianapolis News, Indianapolis, Indiana 46206
Edwin J. Feulner, Jr., Apartment 710, 1200 South Courthouse Rd., Arlington, Virginia 22204
Robert Fountain, 2209 Ecstlown Drive, Apartment 4, Midiand, Michigan 48640
Robb Frenk, 928 South Henderson, Bloomington, Indiana 47401
David Friedman, Unit H, 5037 South Drexel, Chicago, Illinois 60615
Milton Friedman, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637
The Philadelphia Society
April 10-11, 1970
Page 2
Robert W. Galm, 1019 State Office Building, indianapolis, Indiana 46204
Robert M. Gaylord, Jr., 707 Fulton Avenue, Rockford, Illinois 61101
Richard Glover, Jr., Northwood Institute, Midland, Michigen 48640
Charles W. Greenleaf, 1923 Greenleaf Blvd., Elkhart, Indiana 46514
Spencer P. Harris, 2733 Prairie Avenue, Evenston, Illinois 60201
Henry Hazlitt, 65 Drum Hill Road, Wilton, Connecticut 06697
Blahoslav Hruby, Apartment 3-A, 545 Wast 11th Street, New York, N.Y. 10025
Theodore L, Humes, 2800 Jutland Road, Kensington, Maryland 20795
W. H. Hutt, Hoover institution, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305
Thomas R. Ireland, 7125 Missouri Avenue, Hammond, Indiana 46323
Nancy Keefer, 1460 North Sandburg Terrace, Chicago, Illinois
Donald L. Kemmerer, 110 David Kinley Hall, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801
James D. Koerner, 565 Marrett Road, Lexington, Massachusetts 02173
H. F. Langenberg, 506 Olive Street, St. Louis, Missouri 63101
Arthur W. Libby, The Falk Corporation, Box 492, Milwoukee, Wisconsin 53201
James A. Linen, IV, 6701 South Constance, Chicago, Illinois 60649
Mr. and Nrs. Don Lipselt, 7478 Countrybreok Drivo, Indicnapolis, Indiana 46260
Lewis E. Lloyd, 619 Hillcrest Drive, Midlend, Michigan 48640
John F. Lulves, Jr., 14 South Bryn Mawr Avenue, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania 19010
Angus MacDonald, 1415 North Second Street, Stillwater, Minnesota 55082
Henry G. Manne, Dept. of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, N.Y. 14627
John A. Marlin, 301 East 75th Street, New York, N.Y. 10021
John T. Mc Carty, Rockford College, Rockford, Illinois 61101
David Meiselman, Department of Economics, Macalaster College, St. Faul,' Minnesora 55101
Lynda (Lea) Mayers, 1245 - 4th Street, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20027
Charles G. Mills IV, 44 Wall Street, Now York, N.Y. 10005
Dwight D. Murphey, 2648 Manhattan Street, Wichita, Kansas 67204
Courtland G. Newton, Jr., 1500 North LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60610
Gerhart Niemeyer, 806 East Angela Blvd,, South Bend, Indiana 46617
Gary North, Apartment 22, 983 West La Codina, Riverside, California 92501
Mr. and Mrs. Frederick Nymayer, 16540 South Park Avenue, South Holland, Illinois 60473
Lonnert A. Palma, Jr., 1620 Sunret Ridge, Northbrook, Illinois 60062
November, Fhillips
The Philodel, hig Society
April 10-11, 150
Page 3
J. Donforth Quayle, Apartment S-9, 4924 LeMans Drive, Indianapolis, Indiana 46205
Henry Regnary, 114 West Illinois Street, Chicago, Illinois 60310
W. H. Regnery, 2141 South Jefferson Street, Chicago, Illinois 60616
Nr. and Mrs. J. F. Rench, 1405 Sixteenth Street, Racine, Wisconsin 53403
George Resch, 20 Willow Road, Menlo Park, California 94025
Wallace D. Roeller, P.O. Box 1801, Midland, Michigan 48640
Mr, and Mrs, Jemes Rock, 304 South Madison, Bloomington, Indiana 47401
Maurice Rosenfield, 208 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60604
Kathic Poss, 1407 Longworth House Cifice Building, Washington, D.C. 20515
Loyd H. Rowe, 308 Rowe Lane, Midland, Michigan 48640
Amos Ruddock, 2012 Hillgrove Perkway, Midlend, Michigan 48640
Ronald C. Ressell, 3307 Bay City Road, Midland, Michigan 48640
John L. Ryan, 102 Forest Blvd., Indianapolis, Indiana 46240
Sylvia G. Senders, P.O. Box 4028 East Texas Station, Commerce, Texas 75428
Howard Segermark, 438 New Jersey Avenue, S, E., Washington, D.C. 20515
Roy Semmens, DuDois Hall, Northwood institute, Midland, Michigan 48640
Arthur A. Shenfield, 4235 Pinecrest Road, Rockford, Illinois 61107
Bernard H. Slegon, 1300 Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60610
Richard H. Smelizer, Northwood Institute, Midland, Michigan 48640
Sherwood J. B. Sugden, Open Court Publishing Company, LaSalle, Illinois 61301
Robert M. W. Taylor, 635 Mulford Road, Wyncote, Pennsylvania 19095
Kenneth S. Templeton, Jr., 1134 Crone Street, Menlo Perk, California 94025
Stephen J. Tonsor, 1505 Morten Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48104
Walter B. Trepp, 3909 Crahard Drive, Midland, Michigan 48640
J. D. Tuller, 328 North Ocean Blvd., Delray Beach, Florida 33444
R. Emmett Tyrroll, Jr., R. R. 11, Box 360, Bloomington, Indiana 47401
Wayne H. Valis, 14 Soulh Bryn Mawr Avenue, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania 19010
Ernest vcn den Hucg, 118 West 79th Street, New York, N.Y. 10024
Paul Varnell, Apartment 3, 835 Edgebrook, DeKalb, Illinois 60115
Eliseo Vivas, 1425 Forest Avenue, Wilmette, Illinois 60091
George R. Watts, 507 State Office Building, Indianapolis, Indiana 46204
W. Bruce Weinred, 6010 - 14th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20011
Timothy J. Wheeler, Apartment 334, 1299 Palmer Avenue, Lerchmont, New York 10538
James W. Wiggins, Converse College, Spertanburg, South Cerolina 29301
Peter P. Witonski, Department of History, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63130
David R. Wood, 704 Jackson Street, Cregon, Illinois 61051
Keith S. Wood, 70: Jackson Street, Cregon, Illinois 61061
Kerl Zieberth, 142 E-* 7th Struct, New York, N.Y. 10021