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This file contains:
To: Gordon From: Thomas W. Benham RE: Information from the Lead of a San Francisco company about CA research organization (sent May 31). 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Article titled "Calif 6-4, Night LD" written by George Skelton. Discusses McGovern recorded upsurge in a major poll as he prepared to face Hubert Humphrey and three others. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
To: H.R. Haldeman From: R.H. Finch RE: For Your Information RE: Sacramento Report (April 1972) from Robert G. Beverly, Assemblyman, Forty-Sixth District. Report attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/12/1972
To: Thomas W. Benham From: John M. Tyler RE: Best guess as to the people most likely to be doing political research in California. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/19/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: California poll that showed the President at 28% from Jan 10 and Tom Reed's recent poll showing the President at 32%. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/8/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Thomas C. Reed RE: Copy of the final monthly survey and arrangment for one Nixon-McCloskey- Ashbrook question of Republicans to be asked in January. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 2/1/1972
Listening Post, Preliminary Survey Results, 1,049 Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, polling questions about the Republican and Democrat Presidential Primaries. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 1/18/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: California Poll. Thomas C. Reed business card, Listening Post Polling Results for December 12, 1971, and memo to: Gordon Strachan from: H.R. Haldeman RE: California Polls attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/13/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Bob Finch RE: "Thought the attached might interest you." 24th Congressional District polling data and articles titled "Poll Sees Finch Winning Congress Race" and "Finch, in Foothills, lauds Nixon's Work" attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/9/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: California Poll. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/13/1972
Handwritten notes (author unknown) RE: DMI for Tom Reed, and information about polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Attorney General From: Jeb S. Magruber RE: recent California poll. Report titled "The California Poll" from the Independent and Impartial Statewide Survey of Public Opinion, released December 9, 1971, attached. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/23/1971
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26146136
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WHSF: Contested, 44-8
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id
26146136
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 44-8
description
This file contains:
To: Gordon From: Thomas W. Benham RE: Information from the Lead of a San Francisco company about CA research organization (sent May 31). 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Article titled "Calif 6-4, Night LD" written by George Skelton. Discusses McGovern recorded upsurge in a major poll as he prepared to face Hubert Humphrey and three others. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
To: H.R. Haldeman From: R.H. Finch RE: For Your Information RE: Sacramento Report (April 1972) from Robert G. Beverly, Assemblyman, Forty-Sixth District. Report attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/12/1972
To: Thomas W. Benham From: John M. Tyler RE: Best guess as to the people most likely to be doing political research in California. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/19/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: California poll that showed the President at 28% from Jan 10 and Tom Reed's recent poll showing the President at 32%. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/8/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Thomas C. Reed RE: Copy of the final monthly survey and arrangment for one Nixon-McCloskey- Ashbrook question of Republicans to be asked in January. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 2/1/1972
Listening Post, Preliminary Survey Results, 1,049 Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, polling questions about the Republican and Democrat Presidential Primaries. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 1/18/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: California Poll. Thomas C. Reed business card, Listening Post Polling Results for December 12, 1971, and memo to: Gordon Strachan from: H.R. Haldeman RE: California Polls attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/13/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Bob Finch RE: "Thought the attached might interest you." 24th Congressional District polling data and articles titled "Poll Sees Finch Winning Congress Race" and "Finch, in Foothills, lauds Nixon's Work" attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/9/1972
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: California Poll. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/13/1972
Handwritten notes (author unknown) RE: DMI for Tom Reed, and information about polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Attorney General From: Jeb S. Magruber RE: recent California poll. Report titled "The California Poll" from the Independent and Impartial Statewide Survey of Public Opinion, released December 9, 1971, attached. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/23/1971
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
44
8
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon From: Thomas W. Benham RE:
Information from the Lead of a San
Francisco company about CA research
organization (sent May 31). 1pg
44
8
>
Campaign
Newspaper
Article titled "Calif 6-4, Night LD" written
by George Skelton. Discusses McGovern
recorded upsurge in a major poll as he
prepared to face Hubert Humphrey and three
others. 1pg
44
8
5/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: R.H. Finch RE:
For Your Information RE: Sacramento
Report (April 1972) from Robert G. Beverly,
Assemblyman, Forty-Sixth District. Report
attached. 10pgs
44
8
5/19/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Thomas W. Benham From: John M.
Tyler RE: Best guess as to the people most
likely to be doing political research in
California. 3pgs
44
8
2/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan
RE: California poll that showed the
President at 28% from Jan 10 and Tom
Reed's recent poll showing the President at
32%. 1pg
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Page 1 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
44
8
2/1/1972
Campaign
Letter
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Thomas C. Reed
RE: Copy of the final monthly survey and
arrangment for one Nixon-McCloskey-
Ashbrook question of Republicans to be
asked in January. 1pg
44
8
1/18/1972
Campaign
Report
Listening Post, Preliminary Survey Results,
1,049 Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange
Counties, polling questions about the
Republican and Democrat Presidential
Primaries. 2pgs
44
8
1/13/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan
RE: California Poll. Thomas C. Reed
business card, Listening Post Polling Results
for December 12, 1971, and memo to:
Gordon Strachan from: H.R. Haldeman RE:
California Polls attached. 4pgs
44
8
2/9/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Bob Finch RE:
"Thought the attached might interest you."
24th Congressional District polling data and
articles titled "Poll Sees Finch Winning
Congress Race" and "Finch, in Foothills,
lauds Nixon's Work" attached. 4pgs
44
8
1/13/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan
RE: California Poll. 3pgs
44
8
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes (author unknown) RE:
DMI for Tom Reed, and information about
polling data. 1pg
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Page 2 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
44
8
12/23/1971
Campaign
Memo
To: Attorney General From: Jeb S.
Magruber RE: recent California poll. Report
titled "The California Poll" from the
Independent and Impartial Statewide Survey
of Public Opinion, released December 9,
1971, attached. 8pgs
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Page 3 of 3
OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION
Research Park Princeton,
Memorandum
may3'
E
Gordm: Here's some informate
for Francisco company about
Deceived from the head of our
research organiz when in California in
that may we engaged in in
political researce It's not Too
illuminating, hut will girl you Jack's
professional ppraisal at any rate
If we learn enything name, I wass
t on-
Tan
Thomas W. Benham
CALIF 0-4
NIGHT LD
BY GEORGE SKELTON
LOS ANGELES (UPI)-GEORGE MCGOVERN RECORDED ANOTHER UPSURGE IN A
MAJOR POLL SUNDAY AS HE PREPARED TO FACE HUBERT HUMPHREY AND THREE
OTHERS WHO FORCED THEIR WAY ONTO THE PROGRAM IN THE FINAL NATIONALLY
TELEVISED DEBATE BEFORE TUESDAY'S CRUCIAL CALIFORNIA PRIMARY.
A NEW CALIFORNIA POLL SHOWED MCGOVERN AND PRESIDENT NIXON RUNNING
EVEN AT 41 PER CENT EACH IN THE STATE WHICH WILL OFFER THE LARGEST
BLOC OF ELECTORAL VOTES IN THE NOVEMBER GENERAL ELECTION. HUMPHREY
TRAILED NIXON BY 8 POINTS, 42-34.
HUMPHREY'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER, JACK CHESTNUT, MEANTIME APPEALED TO
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CHAIRMAN LAWRENCE F. 0' BRIEN TO "TAKE IMMEDIATE
AND APPROPRIATE ACTION TO ENFORCE COMPLIANCE" WITH AN AGREEMENT ON
MEDIA SPENDING HE CHARGED MCGOVERN IS VIOLATING IN CALIFORNIA.
MCGOVERN HAS DENIED VIOLATING THE AGREEMENT.
THE THIRD TV DEBATE SUNDAY ON ABC'S ISSUES AND ANSWERS HAD FIVE
PARTICIPANTS. IN ADDITION TO MCGOVERN AND HUMPHREY, SOLE PARTICIPANTS
IN THE FIRST TWO DEBATES, THE FINAL ENCOUNTER INCLUDED LOS ANGELES
MAYOR SAM YORTY, REP. SHIRLEY CHISHOLM OF NEW YORK AND RETIRED ARMY
GEN. TAYLOR HARDIN, PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE OF GOV. GEORGE WALLACE, A
CALIFORNIA WRITE-IN CANDIDATE.
NEITHER HUMPHREY NOR MCGOVERN WAS PARTICULARLY HAPPY WITH THE NEW
ADDITIONS. HUMPHREY SAID BEFORE THE SHOW THEY WOULD "OBVIOUSLY DILUTE
THE PERFORMANCE." MCGOVERN REFUSED TO APPEAR WITH JUST HUMPHREY AND
YORTY, DEMANDING THAT THE OTHERS ALSO BE INCLUDED.
ABC'S DECISION TO MAKE IT A FIVE-MEMBER DEBATE FOLLOWED A FEDERAL
COURT ORDER FRIDAY THAT MRS. CHISHOLM BE GIVEN FREE EQUAL TIME IN
VIEW OF HER EXCLUSION FROM THE OTHER DEBATES ON NBC AND CBS.
MCGOVERN, THE FAVORITE IN CALIFORNIA'S PRIMARY WITH ITS BIG BLOC
OF 271 DELEGATE VOTES, ALSO PICKED UP AN ADDITIONAL 10 DELEGATES IN
OKLAHOMA AND THREE IN KENTUCKY SATURDAY, BRINGING HIS TOTAL TO MORE
THAN A THIRD OF THE 1,509 NEEDED TO NOMINATE THE PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE AT THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION.
THREE OTHER PRIMARIES ALSO WILL BE HELD TUESDAY--NEW JERSEY'S WITH
109 DELEGATES, NEW MEXICO'S WITH 18 AND SOUTH DAKOTA'S WITH 17.
MC30VERN AND HUMPHREY ARE BOTH ON THE BALLOT IN NEW JERSEY AND NEW
MEXICO, BUT MCGOVERN IS UNOPPOSED IN HIS HOME STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA
THE NEW CALIFORNIA POLL SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL GAIN FOR MCGOVERN
COMPARED TO A PREVIOUS SURVEY MAY 1. IN THE EARLIER POLL HE TRAILED
NIXON BY 43 TO 39 PER CENT AND IN FEBRUARY WAS EVEN FURTHER BACK AT
47-32 PER CENT.
HUMPHREY ALSO ROSE BY ONE PERCENTAGE POINT AFTER TRAILING NIXON, A
MONTH AGO BY 44-35.
THE PARTIALLY PARALYZED WALLACE, WAGING A CONCENTRATED CALIFORNIA
CAMPAIGN THROUGH HIS WIFE, SON AND SUPPORTERS, RECORDED 9 PER CENT
WHEN MATCHED WITH NIXON AND EITHER MCGOVERN OR HUMPHREY IN A
THREE-WAY RACE.
HUMPHREY'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER CONTENDED IN A LETTER TO O'BRIEN THAT
MCGOVERN HAD SPENT $507,000 ON TELEVISION AND RADIO COMMERCIALS.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS HAD AGREED TO SPEND ONLY $463,000
IN CALIFORNIA.
THE HUMPHREY STRATEGIST BASED HIS FIGURES ON INFORMATION HE SAID
WAS RELEASED BY THE BROADCAST MEDIA.
MCGOVERN'S CAMPAIGN, MEANTIME, ANNOUNCED THAT MORE THAN 25,000
VOLUNTEERS WOULD PARTICIPATE TUESDAY IN "THE MOST EXTENSIVE
GET-OUT-THE-VOTE PROGRAM IN THE HISTORY OF CALIFORNIA PRIMARY
ELECTIONS."
UPI 06-04 02:58 PED
THE WHITE House
WASHINGTON
Old
May 12, 1972
Polls
TO:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM: R. H. FINCH
FYI
Sacramento Report
from
Robert G. Beverly
ASSEMBLYMAN
FORTY-SIXTH DISTRICT
April 1972
Dear Friends:
I am pleased to have this opportunity to preview
some of the major issues we face at the 1972 Session of
the State Legislature.
Speaker of the Assembly Bob Moretti re-appointed me as
Chairman of the Assembly Criminal Justice Committee, which
handles all legislation dealing with criminal offenses,
peace officers, firearms, drugs, criminal court procedure,
correctional and rehabilitation facilities. I am also a
member of the Finance and Insurance Committee, Constitu-
tional Amendments Committee and the Local Government Com-
mittee.
COASTAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
Coastal protection -- one of the top issues of con-
servationists and one especially important to the 46th
Assembly District -- is before the Legislature again this
year. The measures introduced to date seek to assure that
any development along the coastal zone would be coordinated
to prevent the loss of California's precious and irreplace-
able resources. 1 am optimistic that a measure to preserve
our coastline will be enacted this year.
In enacting such legislation, however, it is important
that the private property interest in the coastal zone be
protected as well. Local government must retain a strong
voice in the development of any plans formulated for pro-
tection of the coastal zone.
-2-
CONSUMER PROTECTION
I introduced Assembly Bill 659 to give consumers who
purchase products with warranties additional protection.
My bill proposes that the transfer of goods from one per-
son to another during the lifetime of an express or implied
warranty shall not terminate that warranty. There is no
reason the seller should not be made to stand behind his
warranty even though the product is resold.
EDUCATIONAL FINANCING
In the light of the State Supreme Court's decision
voiding the existing system of financing public education
because it discriminates against low-wealth school dis-
tricts, this subject will be a major issue at the current
legislative session. Several measures have been introduced
to change the entire scope of educational financing, and
extensive committee studies are underway to insure an
equitable and balanced program.
VOTING RECORD
I was honored recently by being rated as having one
of the best voting records on major environmental measures
introduced at the 1971 Session of the Legislature. Legis-
lative Birdwatchers, Inc., a group of citizens who index
the voting records of State Legislators on these important
issues have rated me at 96% - second highest in the Assembly.
The Coalition for Clean Air also rated me as the only
member of the Assembly having a 100% voting record on air
pollution legislation at the 1970 legislative session.
REAPPORTIONMENT
The battle on reapportionment continues during the
current legislative session. The California Supreme Court
ruled that if the Legislature could not reach agreement on
reapportionment this year, the Court would settle it by
the 1974 election. The Court validated the new Congres-
sional District boundaries, but the current Assembly and
Senate Districts remain unchanged for the 1972 elections.
PROPERTY TAX RELIEF
Several measures have been introduced to increase the
$750 homeowners property tax exemption at the current
session. A Constitutional Amendment was also introduced
to limit real property taxes to 1% of the full cash value.
Some form of property tax relief is urgently needed, and
I will continue to support reasonable measures to lessen
this burden.
-3-
APRIL 1972
QUESTIONNAIRE
I am interested in your opinions on particular problems
which might be solved by legislative action at the State
level. Please complete, stamp and return this questionnaire
to assist me to better represent you in Sacramento.
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
1.
Would you favor a law to legalize prostitution?
Yes
No
Undecided
2. As an automobile owner, do you suppport the idea of
required annual inspections of all vehicles to insure
their safe operating condition and compliance with anti-
pollution laws?
Yes
No
Undecided
3.
Would you favor statewide lotteries for raising addi-
tional revenues to support local schools?
Yes
No
Undecided
4.
Do you support the idea of state-controlled off-track
Detach Here
betting as a means of increasing revenues?
Yes
No
Undecided
5.
How would you assess the accomplishments of Governor
Reagan's administration?
Good
Fair
Poor
6. Do you believe that the State should provide financial
aid to private and parochial schools?
Yes
No
Undecided
7.
Do you approve of heroin addicts being given methadone
under a medically supervised maintenance program?
Yes
No
Undecided
8.
Should our present abortion laws be liberalized?
Yes
No
Undecided
9.
Present law provides for criminal penalties for certain
kinds of sexual conduct between consenting adults in pri-
vate. Would you favor a bill to eliminate these penal-
ties?
Yes
No
Undecided
10. There has been much discussion regarding the penalties
for using marijuana. Do you feel the penalties should:
Remain unchanged
Be more severe
Be less severe
11. If you were voting for a successor to Governor Reagan
today, who would you support among the following whose
names are mentioned as possible candidates? (Listed
alphabetically. )
Secretary of State Edmund G. Brown, Jr.
Presidential Aide Robert H. Finch
Controller Houston I. Flournoy
Minority Leader Bob Monagan
Speaker Bob Moretti
Senator George Moscone
Lt. Governor Ed Reinecke
Attorney General Evelle J. Younger
Other
Stamp
Assemblyman Robert G. Beverly
46th Assembly District Office
1611 South Pacific Coast Highway
Redondo Beach, California 90277
May 11
Bob Beverly has sent out 76,000 questionnaires to
his district and 4800 returns are in.
Who would you like to be Governor in 1974?
Brown
440
Finch
845
Flournoy
55
Monagan
20
Moretti
174
Moscone
42
Reinecke
523
Younger
771
2870
1.
Would you favor a law to legalize prostitution?
Yes
2339
No
2085
Undecided
406
4830
2.
Do you support annual inspection of all vehicles?
Yes
3252
No
1216
Undecided
347
4815
3.
Do you favor statewide lottery for revenues for schools?
Yes
3316
No
1235
Undecided
291
4842
4.
Do you support state controlled off-track betting?
Yes
3096
No
1343
Undecided
386
4825
- 2 -
5. How would you assess accomplishments of RR?
Good
2133
Fair
1483
Poor
1162
4778
6. Do you believe state should provide aid to private
and Parichial schools?
Yes
1521
No
2853
Undecided
433
4807
7. Do you approve of methodone treatment for addicts (heroin) ?
Yes
3541
No
531
Undecided
744
4816
8. Should the present abortion laws be liberalized?
Yes
2742
No
1619
Undecided
456
4817
9. Would you favor a law to eliminate penalties for
sexual conduct between consenting adults?
Yes
3012
No
1364
Undecided
461
4837
-- 3 -
10. Penalties for using marijuna --- do you feel the
penalties should:
Remain unchanged
1109
More severe
1171
Less severe
2336
4616
Additional questions for Assembly District poll
1. The California Supreme Court has abolished the death
penalty in California. Do you agree?
yes
no
undecided
2. Should there be liberalization of the laws governing
the disemination of information and materials for
prophylactic (birth control) purposes?
yes
no
undecided
Bagley Poll - May 9, 1972 (partial returns)
Who would you like to see as Governor in 1974?
Republican
Democrat
Non-Partisan
Total
Brown
26
117
18
161
Finch
271
55
22
348
Flournoy
33
8
4
45
Moretti
9
30
3
42
Moscone
15
62
8
85
Reinecke
228
33
9
270
Tunney
28
127
16
171
Younger
175
41
18
234
None
15
28
22
65
Undecided
148
102
19
269
948
603
139
1690
opinion RESEARCH CORPORATION
ORC West, Inc.: 425 Battery Street, San Francisco, California 94111
telephone: 415/433-1788
INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS: PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540
JOHN M. TYLER, Vice President
General Manager, ORC West, Inc.
May 19, 1972
Mr. Thomas W. Benham
President
Opinion Research Corporation
North Harrison Street
Princeton, New Jersey 08540
Dear Tom:
This memorandum is our best guess as to the people most likely to be
doing political research in California. Some of it is based on infor-
mation from Carolyn - who has worked at Field, Communications Research
Center and West Coast Community Surveys, and from Betty White who
recently worked at Communications Research Center.
As you know, there are literally hundreds of "marketing research firms"
in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. We do not have any information on most
of the small shops.
As far as I know from talking with researchers who have done political
research locally, it is generally not a very profitable segment of the
business. Competition for political research assignments is often in-
tense because of the public relations value they believe it gives them.
Research houses are willing to cut their bids and often lose money on
the work. In addition, unsuccessful candidates often are hard to pin
down for payment after election time.
It is my guess that the great majority of political research being done
for municipal and state level candidates for office is done by small
research shops who are successful bidders on the basis of price. Further,
it is probable that the research is assigned through public relations
firms handling the candidates' campaigns.
With that preamble, here is what we would guess about some of the
California firms:
Field Research
Carolyn worked for Field a few years ago. At that time Merv was
accepting no custom political research candidates for election
in California, although he was working for candidates in other
western states. His point of view was that accepting California
CHICAGO
LONDON
LOS ANGELES
MEXICO CITY
MONTREAL
NEW YORK
SAN FRANCISCO
TORONTO
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Mr. Thomas W. Benham
Page 2
May 19, 1972
assignments would compromise the integrity and believability
of his syndicated California Poll, which, as you know, has
wide distribution in California newspapers and is widely quoted
on radio and television news programs. Merv's personal
political leanings are toward the Democratic Party.
Communications Research Center
When Hugh Schwartz was running Communications Research Center,
it was doing some work for candidates for the legislature and
local mayoral and municipal office seekers. Candidates they
have worked for are Senator John Tunney, Mayor Alioto and
State Representative Phillip Burton. The current management
is probably not actively seeking this kind of business since
it was often unprofitable business.
Public Response, Inc.
This is a very small, new research firm run by the aforementioned
Hugh Schwartz. He personally is very interested in this type of
research, and is most likely aggressively soliciting it. We do
not know how much, if any, he is currently doing.
Drossler Research Corporation
It is possible that Drossler is handling sub-contracting assign-
ments from public relations firms.
Haug Associates, Inc.
Haug's total research volume is probably about the same as Field
Corporation and it is probable that they are involved in political
research. Their Board of Directors includes many high placed, well-
known California businessmen. It is likely that they are getting
some assignments through these connections. I would guess their
orientation is toward Republican candidates.
MSI
MSI is a very profitable, high volume field and tab outfit head-
quartered in Los Angeles, which is run by Dick Hurlburt, an
ex-Field employee Merv fired several years ago. It is likely that
MSI is doing political research because of its low-cost structure
and reputation for good field and tab work.
Mr. Thomas W. Benham
Page 3
May 19, 1972
West Coast Community Surveys
This firm is primarily known as a very high quality, expensive,
interviewing service, with the bulk of its business coming from
academia and governmentally funded assignments. It is doubtful
that they are doing much of this kind of work because of their
cost structure.
There has recently been a large-scale, state-wide survey dealing with
attitudes toward the controversial Proposition 9 "The Pollution Initiative"
which will appear on the June ballot. Although I do not know the research
firm involved, it was chosen by Whittaker and Baxter, the public relations
firm handling the opposition point of view to Proposition 9. My guess
would be that the research was done by MSI.
That's about all we can piece together on the local political scene. I
hope it is helpful.
Best regards,
OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION (west)
Jack John M. Tyler
Vice President, General Manager
JMT:bjw
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 8, 1972
Fill Fill
well
TO:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM: GORDON STRACHAN
On January 10 you asked about a
California poll that showed the
President at 28%. My January 13
memorandum responding is attached.
Tom Reed just sent you the last
poll with this DMI question. It
shows the President at 32%.
Attachment
The California Delegation
to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M. Nixon
Governor Ronald Reagan, Chairman
Thomas C. Reed, Vice Chairman
1 February 1972
Mr. H. R. Haldeman
The White House
Washington, D.C.
Dear Bob:
Enclosed is a copy of our final monthly survey. As the Dele-
gation Organizing Committee cannot use information beyond
this point, our participation now terminates.
I have arranged for one Nixon-McCloskey-Ashbrook question
of Republicans to be carried in January. The results will be
available before the Committee's final meeting.
Very best regards,
Tow Thomas C. Reed
Enclosure
TCR:h
Post Office Box 371
San Rafael, California 94902
(415) 456-7310
LISTENING POST
PRELIMINARY SURVEY RESULTS, 18 JANUARY 1972
1,049 Telephone Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, December 1971
1.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
"Suppose you were voting for the group who will select the Republican
presidential nominee -- which group of the following three would you
favor: A group pledged to support Richard M. Nixon; a group pledged to
support a candidate more conservative than Richard M. Nixon; or a group
pledged to support a candidate more liberal than Richard M. Nixon?
More
More
Liberal
Nixon
Conservative
No
Group
Group
Group
Opinion
Los Angeles and Orange Counties
16%
58%
15%
11%
Los Angeles County only
17%
59%
14%
11%
Orange County only
14%
56%
18%
13%
2.
DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (open ended question, asked of Democrats
only)
"Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President?
This Survey
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
E. Muskie
28%
30%
30%
34%
18%
E. Kennedy
21%
26%
26%
29%
32%
H. Humphrey
19%
15%
13%
8%
13%
G. McGovern
11%
8%
10%
10%
8%
J. Lindsay
4%
2%
5%
5%
8%
H. Jackson
3%
5%
2%
2%
4%
All others
14%
14%
12%
12%
19%
PRELIMINARY SURVEY RESULTS, 18 JANUARY 1972
Page 2
3.
GENERAL ELECTION
A. To measure a base level of support: "Now, if the election for President
were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection, would
you vote for him?"
No
Yes
No
Depends
Answer
This survey, December
32.2%
40.6%
23.5%
3.7%
November
27.2%
43.8%
26.5%
2.7%
October
28.6%
42.6%
25.5%
3.3%
September
28.9%
40.5%
22.9%
7.7%
August
30.4%
43.5%
17.6%
8.5%
*Los Angeles County only
Nov. and Dec.
28.4%
44.7%
23.6%
3.3%
Orange County only,
Nov. and Dec.
35.9%
30.5%
30.8%
2.7%
Republicans only, L.A.
& Orange, Nov.
and Dec.
59.2%
10.9%
27.4%
2.5%
B. Head to head VS. Kennedy and Wallace
No
Nixon
Kennedy
Wallace
Opinion
*L.A. County, Nov. & Dec.
40%
41%
7%
12%
L.A. & Orange, Dec.
44%
37%
6%
13%
L.A. & Orange, Nov.
42%
39%
7%
12%
L.A. & Orange, Aug.
39%
44%
9%
8%
*Los Angeles County is reasonably representative of California as a whole.
Ca. Pollo
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Administratively Confidential
January 13, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
California Poll
You asked what the California poll was (supposedly ours)
that showed 28% for the re-election of Nixon.
Decision Making Information, one of the three pollsters
working for the Campaign Committee through Bob Teeter,
conducts a monthly poll in Los Angeles and Orange County.
Tom Reed, the Republican National Committeeman for
California, purchased the following question in
November:
"Now, if the election for President were held today
and Richard Nixon were running for re-election, would
you vote for him?"
Yes
No
Depends
No Answer
This survey -
November
27.3% 43.8% 26.4%
2.6%
The full results are attached.
Tom Reed sends the poll results to the Attorney General.
Harry Dent occasionally receives copies and forwards them
to you. Since you have indicated previously that you did
not want to see individual state polls, they have not
been forwarded to you.
Lyn Nofziger told me that when he saw these results in
December he instructed Tom Reed not to ask that question
again. It was not asked in the December or January DMI
poll.
When Bob Teeter called DMI to check on whether this 27.3%
result was the only result close to the 28% figure you
mentioned, DMI was surprised his inquiry came so late.
Apparently the results have been known in California since
the middle of December.
Mort Allin has not seen any press coverage of this poll.
THOMAS C. REED
MEMBER
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE
503 D STREET, ROOM 3
NATIONAL COMMITTEEMAN FOR CALIF.
SAN RAFAEL. CALIF.
MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
94901
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE
(415) 456-7310
Fill
LISTENING POST
Preliminary Survey Results, 12 December 1971
1013 Telephone Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, November 1971
1.
DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
This Survey
November
October
September
August
E. Muskie
31%
30%
34%
18%
E. Kennedy
27%
26%
29%
32%
H. Humphrey
15%
13%
8%
13%
G. McGovern
7%
10%
10%
8%
H. Jackson
6%
2%
2%
4%
J. Lindsay
2%
5%
5%
8%
All others
13%
12%
12%
19%
2.
GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support: "Now, if the election for President were
held today and Richard Nixon were running for re-election, would you vote for
him? "
No
Yes
No
Depends
Answer
This survey, November
27.3%
43.8%
26.4%
2.6%
October
28.6%
42.6%
25.5%
3.3%
September
28.9%
40.5%
22.9%
7.7%
August
30.4%
43.5%
17.6%
8.5%
Head to Head:
constant
No
R. Nixon
E. Kennedy G. Wallace
Answer
Total, L.A. & Orange Co.
41.7%
39.4%
7.3%
11.6%
Republicans
84.0%
7.7%
3.7%
4.7%
Democrats
20.3%
60.4%
7.8%
11.5%
Independents
36.2%
31.0%
13.2%
19.5%
L. A. County only*
39.0%
42.5%
7.4%
11.1%
Orange County only
58.5%
20.5%
7.0%
14.0%
Total, L.A. & Orange Co.,
August survey
39.4%
44.0%
8.5%
8.0%
*Los Angeles County is reasonably representative of California as a whole.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 10, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
H. R. HALDEMAN H
Find out, please, what the California poll was, supposedly ours)
that showed 28% for the reelection of Nixon.
This is one that was reported recently and I am sure it was a
listing of the whole field or something like that, but I'd like to
know precisely what the method was on it and what the actual
results were.
more allin - nothing.
Roe Teeter -
Lyn not -Tom series Reed, oftracking nate comm pollsin Qr/cal LA Cntes commissioned
- cancelled per Lyn Holmes Tuttle
Genl Elee.
- nou i ele.
- not DMI- in press but CC RR,AG
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Full
February 9, 197
3
TO: H. R. HALDEMAN
POODS
Thought the attached might
be of interest to you.
nothi
BBFinel
Bob Finch
Counsellor to the President
24th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
600 Interviewed
Republican only:
Most important issues - (open end--
more than 100%
Finch
49.5
Taxes/Fiscal/Property Tax Relief 21.2
Richardson
27.6
Local improvements
19.2
Don't know
22.9
(traffic, freeways)
Education/Bussing
14.7
Finch
61.9
Crime
11.2
McColl
11.1
Pollution/Ecology
8.2
Don't know
27.0
Racial
2.3
Finch
49.8
Quality of government
1.8
Richardson
24.4
McColl
4.1
Don't know
21.7
Democrats and Republicans:
Finch
54.0
Binkley
19.5
Don't know
26.5
Richardson
41.0
Binkley
20.0
Don't know
39.0
Star-News-3
119. 7. 12'T
Motched Richardson. McColl, Binkley
Eg DINT WERKMAN
the figure sas more than the president is re-elected." He has McColl. and then both and sub-
Writer
usual num' 0 persons inter- scheduled a news conference mitted their names 10 Republe-
Whus
:-
ide
Prier
viewed
in
.
congr
esional
di-
Thursday
in
Pasadena
can voters. Finch and then Ri-
to
an-
Finch world win both too Di-
chard-on were each place di
trict
poll.
nounce his decision wl other or
mary an general 0,00 ion
against Binkley in a poll of
racem in the 20th Congrassional Finch. in Sylmar Tuesday for not TO run in the 20th District both Republicans and Demo-
District a 10 decides in POTET a ceremony throing over to the primary.
crats.
the a poll 1. .01 hs country portions 01 the land Richardson hasn't yet dis- Results of the poll were:
weeken Tuesday. ground me earthquake-de- closed his decision and McColl Republicans only:
The poll. taken by Opinton stroved San Fernando Veterans and Binkley have *both an- Finch
49.5
h. shows Fr ? Viministpatin in Hosoital. told a nounced they will run.
Richardson
27.6
R.
beating direr State Sen. H. L. 1.7 vs servi reporter he woder Tite pollects fist matched
Don't Know
22.9
Richardson of Areadia or Bill return 0 "atter de e Finch against Richardson. then
McColl of West Covina in the
Finch
61.9
McColl
11.1
June 6 primary.
Egypt Talks or War
Don't Know
27.0
It shows him defeating Dem-
ocral John Dinkley, who an-1
Associated Press
Finch
49.8
nounced Tuesday he will seek!
Egyptian Premier Aziz Sidky; In Jerusalem, the Israch Richardson
24.4
the post being vacated by Rep.
talked of war Tue day while, in/state radio said Premier Golda McColl
04.1
H. Allen Smith, R-Glendale, in
Jerusalem. the Israeli Cabinet
November.
Meir
would
special
Don't know
21.7
convene
a
prepared to ao" on a U.S.-spon-
More than 000 voters were in- sored pe3c" plan designed 10 Cabinet meeting today in Republicans and Democrats:
terviewed at their homes reopen the Sucz Canal.
approve Israel's participation Finch
51.0
throughout the an "With the ower and arms in the Suez Canal initiative. Binkley
10.3
Opinion Research spekesman we have Egy: is this to start The waterway has been closed Don't know
26.5
said.
and wall X 11 the battle to 10- since Isracli forces overran the
The snoke man for the firm. gain the land lost in 1967." Sid-
Richardson
41.0
Sinai
Peninsula
in
the
six-
which commits political pelis ky told a sectioning of Egyptian
Binkley
200
throughout the state, indicated workers in Alexandria.
pday1967 war.
Don't know
33.0
A
Glendale News-Press, Wednesday, Feb. 2, 1972
By CAROLE McKELVEY
He said that while at HEW
for matching fund projects.
Writer
Robert Finch strongly sup-
he managed to cut the payroll
"We hope with revenue
ported the domestic and for-
by the phasing out of cer-
sharing that Los Angeles
eign policies of President Nix-
tain johs.
County, for example, will be
on as he spoke to members of
able to carry out projects un-
"We cut it from $120,000 to
fettered.
the Sunland-Tujunga commu-
$105,000."
nity Tuesday night.
He charged that the Con-
Finch said the government
During a short speech Finch
gress is holding up the Pres-
is trying to reorganize the
touched on topics as varied as
ident's innovative programs.
budget. "But it is hard to
Vietnam. value-added tax.
"Whether we can get a
make government respon-
ending the draft, reorganizing
clear hearing on such things
sive," he said. "We have too
the budget, and the need for
as revenue sharing in a Pres-
more medical doctors in the
much in the government of
idential election year is doubt-
nation.
overpromise and underdeliv-
ful." Finch said.
ery.
He said the war is "obvi-
Finch said the President.
while not being able-to "bring
"We are trying some revo-
ously winding down.
lutionary proposals. We are
"When we came into of-
us all together" as he had
hoped, had returned a spirit
confronted by an urban crisis
fice." he said, "there were
of civility to the country.
in the area of schools. In the
559,000 of our men in Viet-
"We look to the next decade
past we have retied too much
nam. May 1 of this year we
on the property tax. Two
will have de-escalated to 65,-
with a great sense of op-
timism," Finch said.
commissions are now working
000 people. It cannot be dis-
"We have been stabilized.
on possible solutions to this
puted that we are ending the
We are not coming apart.
problem. The President will
war."
"There were some of us in
be answering this area soon,
Finch said the winding
the late 60's who thought the
he said.
down of the war is helping to
country might have lost its
Finch said one of the chan-
cause the unemployment
sense of rational - that an
ges being looked at is a so-
problems now faced on the
era of violence had taken
called value-added tax. "This
domestic front. "No one
tax would apply to each trans-
wants unemployment. And the
over.
action any item goes through
President has taken a bold
"We must now determine
where we are going, who we
from manufacturer to buyer."
route to beak down the
are," he said. "This is really
he said. "It may be worth
economic problems.
discussing to relieve soaring
"The inter-relationship be-
the watershed point in our
tween the Vietnam War and
history."
property taxes.
Finch mentioned briefly his
the unemployment is quite ap-
Finch said local govern-
parent." he said. "We have
period as secretary of HEW.
ments are tied down by the
released 2.2 million men onto
saying he thought he had done
current system which re-
the job market from the mili-
a good job.
quires government approval
tary and defense industry.
And they all have to find
jobs." Finch said.
"We have passed the worst
part, however, we have bitten
the bullet on the economy,"
he said.
During the question period
Los Angeles City Councilman
Louis R. Nowell appealed to
Finch to ask the President to
find a way to let local govern-
ment have more say over its
programs.
"Please take the message
back." Nowell said, "that we
would rather do it ourself."
Seated at the head table
with Finch were members of
the local service clubs who
sponsored the event. They in-
cluded Mr. and Mrs. Harry
McGregor
representing
Kiwanis: Mr. and Mrs. Kenny
Houge. Rotary: and Mr. and
Mrs. Bud Rasmusssen, Lions.
Supervisor Warren Dorn.
Nowell, and Mr. and Mrs.
Wellington Love of John Har-
mer's office were also
present.
Master of ceremonies was
businessman Clark Drane.
The invocation was given by
the Rev. Kenneth Monson,
Tujunga First Christian
Church.
Administratively Confidential
January 13, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
California Poll
You asked what the California poll was (supposedly ours)
that showed 28% for the re-election of Nixon.
Decision Making Information, one of the three pollsters
working for the Campaign Committee through Bob Teeter,
conducts a monthly poll in Los Angeles and Orange County.
Tom Reed, the Republican National Committeeman for
California, purchased the following question in
November:
"Now, if the election for President were held today
and Richard Nixon were running for re-election, would
you vote for him?"
Yes
No
Depends
No Answer
This survey -
November
27.38
43.8% 26.48
2.6%
full results are attached.
Tom Reed sends the poll results to the Attorney General.
Harry Dent occasionally receives copies and forwards them
to you. Since you have indicated previously that you did
not want to see individual state polls, they have not
been forwarded to you.
Lyn Nofziger told me that when he saw these results in
December he instructed Tom Reed not to ask that question
again. It was not asked in the December or January DMI
poll.
When Bob Teeter called DMI to check on whether this 27.38
result was the only result close to the 28% figure you
mentioned, DMI was surprised his inquiry came so late.
Apparently the results have been known in California since
the middle of December.
Mort Allin has not seen any press coverage of this poll.
Fill
LISTENING POST
THOMAS C. REED
polls
MEMBER
Survey Results, 12 December 1971
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE
Los Angeles and Orange Counties, November 1971
503 D STREET. ROOM 3
COMMITTEEMAN FOR CALIF.
SAN RAFAEL. CALIF.
THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
94901
CAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE
(415) 456-7310
PRIMARY (Democrats only)
This Survey
November
October
September
August
E. Muskie
31%
30%
34%
18%
E. Kennedy
27%
26%
29%
32%
H. Humphrey
15%
13%
8%
13%
G. McGovern
7%
10%
10%
8%
H. Jackson
6%
2%
2%
4%
J. Lindsay
2%
5%
5%
8%
All others
13%
12%
12%
19%
2.
GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support: "Now, if the election for President were
held today and Richard Nixon were running for re-election, would you vote for
him?'
No
Yes
No
Depends
Answer
This survey, November
27.3%
43.8%
26.4%
2.6%
October
28.6%
42.6%
25.5%
3.3%
September
28.9%
40.5%
22.9%
7.7%
August
30.4%
43.5%
17.6%
8.5%
Head to Head:
constant
No
R. Nixon
E. Kennedy G. Wallace
Answer
Total, L.A. & Orange Co.
41.7%
39.4%
7.3%
11.6%
Republicans
84.0%
7.7%
3.7%
4.7%
Democrats
20.3%
60.4%
7.8%
11.5%
Independents
36.2%
31.0%
13.2%
19.5%
L. A. County only*
39.0%
42.5%
7.4%
11.1%
Orange County only
58.5%
20.5%
7.0%
14.0%
Total, L.A. & Orange Co.,
August survey
39.4%
44.0%
8.5%
8.0%
*Los Angeles County is reasonably representative of California as a whole.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 10, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
H. R. HALDEMAN H
Find out, please, what the California poll was, supposedly ours.)
that showed 28% for the reelection of Nixon.
This is one that was reported recently and I am sure it was a
listing of the whole field or something like that, but I'd like to
know precisely what the method was on it and what the actual
results were.
more allin - nothing
Bol Teeter -
Lyn not -Tom ceries oftriking Reed, nate comm polls in Qr/cal LA Cntes commissioned
- cancelled per Lyn Holmes Tattle
Genl Elec.
- nouil ele
- not DMI- in press but CC RR,AG
Teeler
DMI for Tom Reed
1000 calls in LA Orange enty
- now if the elee for P.
were Dell tereay an RR
were running for Re-Ele,
Pollins Tom Reed asked 0 m I te
would you whe for him?
Dates
get absolute Rn car
Oct,
29% yes for sere
41% not vote on Here
31% depends
- That 101 A G had the soll Thanks
- conduct poll every mo,
unique ?
Fle
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
Cal
Polls
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE. NW
WASHINGTON. D C. 20006
December 23, 1971
(202) 333.0920
DETERMINED TO BE AN
CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By OMPMAL NARS, Date 5-23-80
MEMORANDUM FOR THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
The attached information from the recent California Poll may be
of interest to you.
Attachment
JEB Jun S MAGRUDER
CONFIDENTIAL
THE AND SMPART OF PUBLIC CRINICH
OPERATION FL... CORPORATION SHICE 013
San Francisco Headquarters
Office
COPYRIGHT 1971 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Release #737
For release THURSDAY, DECEMBER 9, 1971
LARGE POTENTIAL FOURTH PARTY
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to re-
VOTE; PRESENCE WOULD HURT
vocation if publication or broadcast takes place before
DEMOCRATS
release date or if contents of report are divulged to
persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time.
by Mervin D. Field
Rumblings of a possible fourrh party movement are being heard across the land and it is quite possible
that next year voters in many states will have a ballot choice of four national presidential tickets.
Within the past fortnight about 200 delegates representing about 23 states attended a fourth party
organizing convention in Texas. Naming itself the People's Party, the delegates debated a party platform and
reviewed the candidate field for likely 1972 presidential and vice-presidential standard bearers.
Initial support for this fourth party movement comes from C variety of disaffected groups, such as
militant young voters, blacks, browns, women's libburs, consumerists, and anti-war activists. While they may
lack unity on some policies and issues, their common ground is their dissatisfaction with the present social and
political system. They see little difference between the two major parties, and abhor George Wallace. In con-
ventional political description they are liberal, and if they did not form a Fourth party, most of them would
as
probably vote Democratic as the least of several evils.
This is what disturbs Democratic strategists as they view next year's presidential campaign. They fear
that fourth party votes will mean defeat for the party and the re-election of Republican President Richard Nixon.
Last May, and again last month, the California Poll measured public sentiment toward a fourth party
movement in this state for president.
The survey's results indicate that there is large potential vote for C fourth party in this state. The
amount depends on who heads the Democratic party ticket and who runs on the fourth party ticket.
The survey also shows why Democrats have cause for wony: a fourth party candidate draws more votes
from Democraric than from Republican ranks.
In this latest test The California Poll tested the current popularity of two men as possible fourth party
candidates: ex-Senator Eugene McCarthy and New York Mayor John Lindsay. In each test Nixon was listed CS
the GOP candidate and George Wallace as the AIP candidate. Democratic candidates were rotated in order on
these simulated ballots.
(MORE)
The California Poll - page 2
While neither McCarthy nor Lindsay "wins" in these tests as fourth party candidates, results show that
McCarthy has much more support than Lindsay. Nevertheless, in all cases except one, the appearance of a fourth
party still leaves Nixon with substantial pluralities. The exception is when Senator Edward Kennedy is the
Democratic candidate. His appeal appears able to stem the defection of some nominal Democratic votes to C
fourth party, leaving him at least as strong as Nixon.
In the table below are shown the current candidate popularity standings when Kennedy, Muskie, or
Humphrey is the Democratic candidate and McCarthy or Lindsay are fourth party candidares. For comparison
purposes, previously published three party results are also shown.
Three Party
4 Parties (McCarthy)
4 Parties (Lindsay)
Nixon
42%
Nixon
37%
Nixon
39%
Muskie
40
Muskie
30
Muskie
31
Wallace
10
Wallace
7
Wallace
7
McCarthy
20
Lindsay
18
Don't know
8
Don't know
ó
Don't know
5
Nixon
42%
Nixon
35%
Nixon
35%
Kennedy
45
Kennedy
36
Kennedy
41
Wallace
9
Wallace
6
Wallace
5
McCarthy
18
Lindscy
15
Don't know
4
Don't know
5
Don't know
4
Nixon
46%
Nixon
38%
Nixon
36%
Humphrey
35
Humphrey
25
Humphrey
30
Wallace
10
Wallace
7
V/allace
7
McCarthy
23
Lindsay
22
Don't know
9
Don't know
7
Don't know
5
When less prominent presidential contenders such as Senators George McGovein, Henry Jackson,
Mayor Sam Yorty, Congressman Wilbur Mills and Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm, are listed in the Democratic
slot, Nixon's pluralities become even greater than when Kennedy, Muskie, and Humphrey are listed.
From this evidence, it would seen that if fourth party movement had as its motivating force the desire
to change the status quo, it would instead accomplish the opposite -- the election of Richard Nixon. But this is
only one way of looking at the situation. The dissidents who would rally around a fourth party banner see in this
exercise an opportunity to demonstrate just how powerful they are and expect that even if they don't poll a
plurality of votes, they can influence the major parties and their candidates. A significant share of the popular
vote, even though it brought no electoral college votes, would also be encouragement for more organization and
a better showing in 1976.
More immediate, however, there is the prospect that a. fourth party headed by a credible candidate and
given a determined effort between now and next November, might just possible result in winning a state such as
California, Illinois, New York. The electoral votes from just one of these states, together with whatever electoral
college votes George Wallace got in the South, might be enough to deny either the Republican or Democratic
party an outright victory in November. Then, when the House of Representatives subsequently convened to select
a President, the congressmen whose districts polled substantial fourth party votes would be under considerable pressure
to select a man who would be acceptable to fourtn purly voters.
(MORE)
The California Poll - page 3
Three Party
4 Parties (McCarthy)
4 Parties (Lindsay)
Nixon
47%
Nixon
40%
Nixon
38%
Jackson
21
Jackson
13
Jackson
12
Wallace
11
Wallace
8
Wallace
7
McCarthy
29
Lindsay
27
Don't know
20
Don't.know
10
Don't know
16
Nixon
45%
Nixon
33%
Nixon
39%
McGovern
33
McGovern
25
McGovern
22
Wallace
10
Wallace
8
Wallace
7
McCarthy
21
Lindsay
19
Don't know
13
Don't know
9
Don't know
13
Nixon
54%
Nixon
40%
Nixon
39%
Yorty
17
Yorty
11
Yorry
14
Wallace
9
Wallace
6
Waliace
6
McCarthy
33
Lindsay
30
Don't know
20
Don't know
10
Don't know
11
Nixon
49%
Nixon
39%
Nixon
41%
Mills
19
Mills
9
Mills
11
Wallace
11
Wallace
8
Wallace
7
McCarthy
31
Lindsay
26
Don't know
20
Don't know
13
Don't know
15
Nixon
50%
Nixon
41%
Nixon
41%
Chisholm
19
Chisholm
8
Chisholm
8
Wallace
11
Wulldce
8
Wallace
8
McCarthy
30
Lindsay
29
Don't know
19
Don't know
13
Don't know
14
U
-30-
COPYRIGHT 1971 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
SECURITY
PUBLICIANCE
Losting
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY
Dates of interviewing:
November 1 - 13, 1971
Population covered by
this survey:
Representative cross-section of California adult public
Sample design:
The survey interviews are solected in accordance with a probability sample design
which provides for rondom (i 0., non-judgemental) selection of households. Assign-
ments in a particula: place are done in clusters with randomly drawn addresses as
starting points to. each cluster of interviews. For this survey, 240 clusters throughout
the state were selected. Each cluster consisted of a set of consecutive households
beginning with the du signated starting hauchold. Interviewers made up 10 three calls
on every listed address in on attempt to complete on interview. One adult per howe-
hold was selected for interview on a systematic basis TO provide a balance by sex and
age. Interviewing was conducted during late afternoon and evening on woukdays and
all day on the week-ord The sample is designed to be self-weighted on all variable.
of interest, such astared of state, degree of Libanization, political party affiliation,
Hand socio-economic status. Whenever imbalances in key variables occur ir. the sample
due 10 sampling variability or other factors, corrective weights are applied during the
data processing stage to return the sample to proper proportion.
Wording of the
A. "I know the 1972 presidential election is a year away, but if you were voting today and
questions on which
the presidential baliot looked like this, who would you vote for ? (CARDS WERE SHOWN
this report is based:
TO RESPONDENT LISTING THREE PARTY TRIAL HEAT PAIRINGS)
B. "Let's assume that in addition 10 the two major parties' candidates and George Wullace's
ticket, there was C fourth party headed by Eugene McCorthy. If you were voting today
for President and Mese were the choices, who would you vote for? (CARDS WERE
SHOWN TO RESPONDENT LISTING FOUR-PARTY TR.AL HEAT PAIRINGS)
C. "Let's assume that in addition to the two major parties' candidates and George Wolloce's
ticket, there was a fourth party headed by John Lindsay , If you were voting day for
President and these were the choices, who would you vote for ?" (CARDS WERE SHOWN
TO RESPONDENT LISTING FOUR PARTY TRIAL HEAT PAIRINGS)
Number of interviews:
In total 1007 persons: 300 self-identified as Republicans, 464 as Democrats, and 193
other party or no political affiliation.
The California Poll sample for ti is report utilized a "split half sample" for questions
on the four-party trial heat pairings used in this release. The number of interviews for
the two halves was CS follows:
Total sample A
Sub-somple B
Sub-sample C
3-party
4-party
4-party
pairings
Carrhy)
(Lindsay)
Total
1007
502
505
Republicans
350
174
176
Democrats
464
236
228
Other
193
92
101
[See reverse side for answers to some
typical questions about the Poil]
The
public
Souphs