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118565236
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Campaign 1984 (4)
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118565236
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Campaign 1984 (4)
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Records of the White House Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff (Reagan Administration)
Michael Deaver's Political Files
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1985-12-31
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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Digital Library Collections This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections. Collection: Deaver, Michael: Files Folder Title: Campaign 1984 (4) Box: 67 To see more digitized collections visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected] Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/ REAGAN-BUSH 84 4:00Pm "MOT The President's Authorized Campaign Committee RR agrees both. MEMORANDUM FOR JAMES A. BAKER, III FROM: Ed Rollins JAB DATE: April 17, 1984 RE: North Carolina and Alabama political situations 1. North Carolina Senator Helms insists that the attached telephone script be used as part of the North Carolina voter registration effort. I believe it is highly inappropriate for the President, or Reagan-Bush '84, to be associated with this heavy-handed attempt ("block voters") to stir up racial tensions. With your approval, I will not permit this script to be used. Senator Helms has indicated that he will call the President directly. I hope that the President will choose not to involve himself in this matter. 2. Alabama Alabama will send 38 delegates to the Dallas convention. 28 delegates were elected in the March 13 primary. Of these, 7 (25%) were women. The remaining 10 Alabama delegates are appointed by the President. Senator Denton insists that 8 of these 10 delegates be male. This would leave the Alabama delegation with just 9 (23%) women. This percentage represents a decline from the 28% level achieved in the 1980 delegation. Alabama would be the only state with a lower percentage of women in 1984 than four years earlier. I have asked Lou Kitchin, our Southern Regional Campaign Director, and Jack Edwards, our Alabama Chairman, to work with Senator Denton to make sure at least 6 of the 10 presidentially- appointed delegates are women. Senator Denton has indicated that he may call the President on this matter. 440 First Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 383-1984 Paid for by Reagan-Bush '84: Paul Laxalt, Chairman; Angela M. Buchanan Jackson, Treasure: Page Two I have talked to Ed Allison and Drew Lewis about both of these matters and they are in full accord with my decisions. I hope that I have your support as well. #2 HELLO, THIS IS RICHARD PETTY. I'M HELPING CONDUCT A PUBLIC OPINION POLL THRU THIS RECORDED MESSAGE. PLEASE RESPOND AT THE SOUND OF THE TONE. IF THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR WALTER MONDALE, OR RONALD REAGAN? IF THE ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATE WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR JIM HUNT, OR JESSE HELMS? NOW THE LAST QUESTION: DO YOU APPROVE OF JESSE JACKSON REGISTERING 200,000 NEW BLOCK VOTERS IN NORTH CAROLINA? THANK YOU! 26 Seconds FINAL REVISED 4/13/84 REAGAN-BUSH '84 The President's Authorized Campaign Committee REAGAN-BUSH '84 INITIAL MEDIA FLIGHT Juli OBJECTIVES -Establish an umbrella theme to carry the campaign through the convention -Revitalize the President's perceptual standing with voters following the vigorous anti-Reagan onslaught of the Democratic primaries -Project the reality of strong, confident, successful leadership that assures hope for the future as a contrast to the Democratic debate -Generate initial awareness of the campaign THEMES -Leadership. Reagan is a highly trusted, strong leader. His leadership has induced considerable positive change. -Competence. Reagan gets things done, as evidenced by the economic recovery and control of inflation. -Future Vision. Reagan's changes have given rise to a new era of opportunity for America's future. Administration accomplishments in quality education, expanding economy, controlling inflation, space and stimulation of high technology are issues which bridge the past and the future. -Traditional Values. Reagan has re-established and reinforced traditional values which offer stablilty and security, and are a sound basis on which to build on the future. -Caring. Reagan is caring and concerned about people and has drawn strength from his populist appeal. TONE -Focus attention on the past to anchor the scope and benefit of the changes Reagan has made and project that change into the future, essentially answering the question "are you better off today than you were four years ago?", while postulating, "things can get even better with continued Reagan leadership." -The spots should be generally positive in tone, drawing upon some of the first term's accomplishments and emphasizing that the President's leadership has made, and will continue to make, 440 First Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 383-1984 Paid for by Reagan-Bush '84: Paul Laxalt, Chairman; Angela M. Buchanan Jackson, Treasurer REAGAN-BUSH '84 The President's Authorized Campaign Committee Media Flight, P. 2 a vital difference. -The tone should also build on the feelings of optimism and con- fidence in ourselves, our leaders, and our country. TIMING The emphasis on leadership will work best in the period between the President's China trip in late April and his June summit meeting in Europe. Therefore, the optimum time for a first flight is the ten- day period just before the Memorial Day weekend. The period has the advantages of: -Intensity of audience interest in political messages is higher during this period than it will be in June or July because of the proximity to the attention given to the Democratic primary contest. -A divided opposition still in contention for the nomination will provide us with a unique opportunity to present our positive message of presidential leadership in stark contrast to their bickering and pointless debate. This contrast can and should be achieved indirectly, with no specific reference to the Democratic contest. -Media coverage in late April and early May will be dominated by the Normandy event and the June summit metting in London. These events will generate substantial print and electronic media coverage fitting neatly under our umbrella theme of leadership, and thus reinforce our primary objective. TARGETS -In general, our target is the slightly upscale voter. (Give more weight to those with household incomes between $18,000 and $30,000; weight less heavily those who did not graduate from high school.) -We need to softly target the blue collar, catholic and middle-aged voters (45-55). -Radio spots aimed at hispanics in California and Texas and younger voters (under 35) should supplement the television effort. 440 First Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 383-1984 Paid for by Reagan-Bush '84: Paul Laxalt, Chairman; Angela M. Buchanan Jackson, Treasurer REAGAN-BUSH '84 The President's Authorized Campaign Committee TO: James A. Baker III Michael Deaver Frank Fahrenkopf Paul Laxalt Drew Lewis Ed Rollins Stuart Spencer FROM: Richard B. Wirthlin DATE: March 23, 1984 SUBJECT: Additional Tables Attached are two additional tables relevant to the memo I sent you on the results of the March survey. They show the President's job approval and reelect results broken down longitudinally by key constituencies. 440 First Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (202)383-1984 Paid for by Reagan-Bush '84: Paul Laxalt, Chairman; Angela M. Buchanan Jackson, Treasurer Reagan Job Rating -- General (Approve) "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as President? Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/disapprove)?" May Jul Aug Sep Sep Oct 27-30 30-31 17-22 6-9 23-25 18-21 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 Aggregate 56 52 50 50 54 58 Base Republicans 85 88 82 80 80 89 Small business 59 * 58 55 * 68 Farm Belt states 57 54 52 53 63 56 Blue-collar workers 58 56 51 45 56 61 Senior citizens 44 54 48 44 47 52 Women 49 49 44 47 46 52 Catholics 57 51 52 51 58 64 Independents/Leaners 60 61 57 51 55 58 White Baptists 58 57 54 53 55 62 18-24 year olds 57 53 55 64 50 61 Professionals 54 60 64 63 60 70 Veterans * * 56 * * * * * * * * * Irish Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 26-28 25-29 14-17 18-21 2-4 7-11 1983 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 Aggregate 55 62 64 62 58 59 Base Republicans 81 87 93 90 89 88 Small business * 69 74 67 70 66 Farm Belt states 51 60 55 65 71 60 Blue-collar workers 57 62 71 66 59 60 Senior citizens 50 57 60 61 47 50 Women 50 58 59 56 53 56 Catholics 58 61 58 61 54 61 Independents/Leaners 57 66 65 62 61 63 White Baptists 55 70 78 70 62 68 18-24 year olds 66 56 62 65 66 68 Professionals 57 68 61 69 64 56 Veterans * 69 * 66 63 58 Irish * * * * * 61 Reelect Reagan "Thinking ahead to the 1984 presidential election do you think Ronald Reagan has preformed well enough as President to deserve reelection, or do you think it will be time to give a new person the chance to do better?" Reelect/New Person Apr May Jun Aug Sep Sep 7-11 27-30 25-27 17-22 6-9 13-19 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 Aggregate 39/53 45/48 40/53 43/50 36/56 38/53 Base Republicans 57/20 80/16 76/22 78/16 64/28 64/31 Small business 49/40 52/41 44/50 49/43 42/29 */* Farm Belt states 50/45 57/37 39/56 43/49 36/52 40/53 Blue-collar workers 35/56 42/51 37/56 44/52 32/62 40/52 Senior citizens 43/49 37/57 49/44 46/47 29/58 36/53 Women 35/58 37/56 33/59 37/55 31/61 35/56 Catholics 40/54 40/53 37/57 44/48 33/58 39/53 Independents/Leaners 42/50 45/45 42/47 48/43 37/53 41/49 White Baptists */* 52/44 40/52 48/49 39/54 40/51 18-24 year olds 36/59 37/55 36/58 42/54 41/52 37/56 Professional 46/46 49/45 45/45 49/39 48/48 46/46 Veterans 45/48 */* */* */* */* */* Irish */* */* */* */* */* */* Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 18-21 25-29 14-17 18-21 2-4 7-11 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 Aggregate 46/47 49/44 52/43 53/42 53/43 49/45 Base Republicans 77/17 79/17 82/15 86/12 86/12 82/14 Small business 52/40 58/36 59/37 59/36 62/36 54/40 Farm Belt states 48/37 42/49 48/48 54/38 59/35 47/48 Blue-collar workers 46/47 57/47 55/42 52/43 56/42 49/45 Senior citizens 42/50 46/44 48/47 62/35 47/49 47/48 Women 39/55 42/51 47/48 47/48 49/49 45/50 Catholics 48/44 49/46 48/49 56/38 49/48 47/46 Independents/Leaners 45/45 53/39 53/41 55/39 59/38 50/42 White Baptists 44/46 57/35 66/23 59/38 61/36 58/34 18 to 24 year olds 45/57 45/53 48/49 51/48 56/42 51/44 Professional 50/43 55/40 51/45 65/32 57/42 48/44 Veterans */* 59/36 */* 58/37 59/36 51/43 Irish */* */* */* */* */* 51/41 2123 10:00a.m THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 10, 1984 MEMORANDUM TO MIKE DEAVER MIKE McMANUS FROM: PAM BAILEY PUB SUBJECT: Follow-up to Wirthlin Meeting The attached is an attempt to organize last Saturday's Wirthlin data into communications goals with supporting strategies. (Because the actual handouts have yet to be received, this is a draft based on notes and may be off in some areas.) If the goals and strategies have some logic, then action steps to carry out each strategy can be determined next. They would be, according to the particular item, allocated among RR, campaign, RNC, surrogates, Cabinet, White House Staff and "special spokesmen.' In developing a communications plan from this perspective, RR's schedule and communications can be measured against its contribution to the plan. For instance, in the weeks ahead, there are few opportunities for RR to emphasize inflation achievements or to demonstrate that his policies have resulted in jobs. Government waste accomplishments are missing, too. Should they be added or should surrogates take on those issues? World leadership in light of recent events may be issues we'll address as well. Finally, below is a list of possible strong spokesmen. Perhaps no one person can serve the purpose. If we go with a core group, each person could be assigned an area or constituency of expertise and utilized when that area becomes a priority. The list could include: Jack Kemp gerald marreen Reazan Foul Paul Laxalt Trent Lott Elizaberth Dole Bob Michel John Connolly Herery Kissinger Frank Fahrenkopf Guy Vander Jagt Drew Lewis Bob Dole GOAL I Maintain and solidify RR's issue and image strengths considered most important to voters, especially blue collar workers. RR's image is a strong, positive one. It should be maintained and protected. He is seen as a strong leader who is intelligent, courageous, tough, trustworthy and effective in getting things done. He is recognized for his inflation accomplishments, being a respected world leader and producing economic growth. GOAL II Improve voter perception of RR in several key issue and image areas. GOAL III Maintain and reinforce RR's wide advantages over Mondale in certain key issue and image categories - i.e., inflation, government waste, strong leader, strengthening America's defenses and growth in the future. These same points are Mondale's major weaknesses on issues of importance to voters. GOAL IV Decrease voter recognition of Mondale's current issue and image strengths - i.e., jobs, cares about people, education, preserve world peace. GOAL V Be prepared to rebut Mondale's fairness attack on RR and on RR's "safe course of action" image. GOAL VI Improve RR standing among women in key issue and image areas, closing gap with Mondale. GOAL I Maintain and solidify RR's issue and image strengths considered most important to voters, especially blue collar workers. RR's image is a strong, positive one. It should be maintained and protected. He is seen as a strong leader who is intelligent, courageous, tough, trustworthy and effective in getting things done. He is recognized for his inflation accomplishments, being a respected world leader and producing economic growth. Strategy 1 Include in virtually every RR communication action step, Employee points on RR's accomplishments in reducing inflation, Bomes attacking government waste, and stimulating economic (Title) growth. (Fulley Review group / looking recommendations at graceCommission Strategy 2 Position RR in visible Presidential settings avoiding, where possible, partisan rhetoric. (JR) Strategy 3 Fully utilize available opportunities to emphasize RR's image as a respected world leader. Strategy 4 Emphasize RR's vision for the future and policy agenda, especially his four great goals. Strategy 5 Emphasize RR's accomplishments as RR's delivering on his promises and his effectiveness in getting things done. Strategy 6 Maintain RR's position on education vis-a-vis Mondale by emphasizing RR's leadership and accomplishments. (7R/C7) GOAL II Improve voter perception of RR in several key issue and image areas: Preserve World Peace (2) Reduce Government Waste Crime Reduce Government Spending 3 Cares and Concerns about People /schululing/ Environment Jobs and growth (1) Strategy 1 Present RR's foreign policy initiatives in terms of his overall policies for maintaining world peace. Strategy 2 Initiate in a visible and dramatic way new RR proposals for attacking government waste. Avoid letting the Democrats make DOD waste a compaign issue. Turn the "waste" debate away from the controversial Grace Commission toward positive initiatives the public can identify with. Strategy 3 Demonstrate RR leadership on crime and relate it to daily concerns of Americans and the strengthening of traditional values -- i.e., victims of crime, family violence, pornography, crime bill Strategy 4 newl to get RuchelsLaus more. Utilize the new leadership at Interior to favorably position the Administration on environmental issues. Strategy 5 Translate economic growth and other RR policy successes into jobs for people. Strategy 6 Through presentation of certain policy issues and scheduling opportunities demonstrate that RR cares and is concerned about people. Strategy 7 Position RR as a leader who understands the deficit and its causes and has a solution. GOAL III Europaign and Rnc objective, Maintain and reinforce RR's wide advantages over Mondale in certain key issue and image categories - i.e., inflation, government waste, strong leader, strengthening America's defenses and growth in the future. These same points are Mondale's major weaknesses on issues of importance to voters. Strategy 1 Present RR's inflation successes in contrast to poor record of Carter/Mondale. Strategy 2 Emphasize RR's government waste record as contrasted with the non-record of Carter/Mondale. Strategy 3 Position RR as a strong leader while presenting Mondale as a weak leader who was a participant in Carter Administration failed policies. Tie Mondale to Carter V.P. wherever possible. Strategy 4 Remind voters, where appropriate, that RR has strengthened America's defenses. Strategy 5 (Growth in the future.) GOAL IV Decrease voter recognition of Mondale's current issue and image strengths - i.e., jobs, cares about people, education, preserve world peace. Strategy 1 Demonstrate that Mondale's policies don't result in more jobs, as contrasted with RR's policies which have. Strategy 2 Present the facts on the basic unfairness to people of Carter/Mondale policies. Strategy 3 Maintain focus on the negatives of Mondale's education policies. Strategy 4 Relate problems with Mondale's policies and proposals to prospects for world peace. GOAL V RUC /R-B objective Be prepared to rebut Mondale's fairness attack on RR and on RR's "safe course of action" image. Strategy 1 Relate economic good news to fairness, as well as regulation and government waste successes. Strategy 2 Emphasize accomplishments and programs with more $ or improvements (CSE). Strategy 3 Point out unfairness of inflationary Carter/Mondale policies. GOAL VI Improve RR standing among women in key issue and image areas, closing gap with Mondale. Strategy 1 Develop and implement a communications plan to articulate meaning to women of RR's economic policy successes. Strategy 2 Initiate one or two policy measures -- such as equal pay study -- which would demonstrate RR's concern for women. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: March 2 TO: FROM: Mike Michael Deaver A. McManus, Jr. Assistant to the President and Deputy to Deputy Chief of Staff X Information Action Let's Discuss This is the cable information you requested. communications by design March 2, 1984 Mr. Michael McManus Assistant to the President The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D. C. 20500 Dear Mike: I am enclosing the background information on cable penetra- tion and usage of television in CATV homes, which was referenced in David Caldwell's February 16 letter to you. Also enclosed are recent articles from Multichannel News and CableVision magazine regarding: coverage by C-SPAN and CNN of the Iowa Caucus; coverage of the March 13 Primaries by the Southern Regional Council; and some additional information regarding cable viewing habits. The source of the basic information on cable penetration and viewing habits is A. C. Nielson Co. which yesterday provided me with the attached information on an informal basis prior to an expected release in mid-April. Nielson's estimate of 34,740,330 CATV homes is substantially larger than the number which we had used in attempting to quantify our potential view- ing audience. The articles regarding coverage of the Iowa Caucus are interesting because they indicate a broadening use of cable for campaign coverage and significant viewing audience interest, particularly in unedited or extended coverage formats. I thought the article concerning the March 13 Primaries demon- strated a significant interest among the major multiple cable system operators, such as Cox, Storer, ATC and Group W, in carrying extended campaign coverage. I am very pleased to hear that our project is beginning to take shape. Best regards. Sincerely, Joy Y. Wheeler TELEVISION VIEWING DATA OBTAINED FROM A. C. NIELSON COMPANY 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10104 Part of 1984 Annual Television Viewing Report to be Released Approximately April 15, 1984 Reflects Survey Results as of November 1983 1. Average Hours of Television Usage Per Television Household - Monday through Sunday - All Hours * / Cable Household- Non-Cable Household (Hours) (Hours) Total (All Services) 57.80 48.23 Network Affiliated Stations 34.86 39.11 Independent Commercial Stations 12.35 9.35 Public/Educational Stations 1.56 1.73 Other Non-Broadcast Cable Services 12.72 --- Sum of Foregoing **/ **/ Stations and Services 61.49 50.19 * / Total CATV Homes: 34,740,330 ** / These sums exceed the "Total (All Services)" because of simultaneous multi-set usage in approximately 6% of cable households and approximately 4% of non-cable households. 2. Average Hours of Television Usage Per Television Household - Monday through Sunday - Prime Time / Cable Household- Non-Cable Household (Hours) (Hours) Total (All Services) 14.33 12.71 Network Affiliated Stations 10.13 11.30 Independent Commercial Stations 2.11 1.61 Public/Educational Stations .42 .55 Other Non-Broadcast Cable Services 3.03 --- Sum of Foregoing **/ **/ Stations and Services 15.69 13.46 */ * Total CATV Homes: - 34,740,330 **/ These sums exceed the "Total (All Services)" because of simultaneous multi-set usage in approximately 9% of cable households and approximately 6% of non-cable households. 3. Distribution of Television Viewing in Cable Households - By Source-Composite of All CATV Homes - Monday through Sunday. * / All Hours- Prime Time * / Network Affiliated Stations 71 80 Independent Commercial Stations 20 14 Public/Educational Stations 3 4 Pay Television 5 6 Local Origination/ Ad Supported Cable Services 5 4 ** / ** / Total 104 108 * / Percent of total viewing in All CATV homes by source. **/ These figures exceed 100% because of multi-set usage in a number of CATV homes. 4. Distribution of Television Viewing in Cable Households - By Source - Cable Homes Taking Pay Television - Monday through Sunday * / All Hours Prime Time*/ Network Affiliated Stations 55 67 Independent Commercial Stations 21 13 Public/Educational Stations 2 3 Pay Television 17 19 Local Origination/ Ad Supported Cable Services 12 9 Total 107**/ 111**/ * / Percent of total viewing in CATV homes taking at least - one pay television service by source. **/ These figures exceed 100% because of multi-set usage in a number of CATV homes. Multichannel News The Newspaper for the New Electronic Media Vol. 5 No. 8 - February 27, 1984 $1.00 Analyst Sees Pacific Bell Courts Cable Canadian DBS Company Pay Service Pricing War Buys First Decoders By Joe Boyle From Oak Industries New York Bureau Chief NEW YORK CITY-The com- By Kimberley Noble else the technology passes you petition between Home Box Of- Toronto Correspondent by," Mr. Carter said. fice and Showtime/The Movie TORONTO (FNS)-Oak In- Although Oak put up the $5.4 Channel continues to heat up, dustries Inc. of San Diego last million needed to develop the and a number of industry experts week announced that it has de- decoder. which offers analog expect both services will now be- veloped and will soon market the video scrambling and digital gin a series of price-cutting meas- first personal decoder for direct audio scrambling. Oak worked ures to increase market share. Pacific Bell district manager, Cable/Wideband Services, Kare broadcast satellite TV application. closely with Cancom to design the One Wall Street analyst said Anderson courts the southern California cable TV Industry with a The first 5,000 of Oak Indus- product to the Canadian com- such cost-cutting moves involve number of proposals combining cable and telephone technolo- tries' new "PD" will be shipped pany's specifications. Mr. Carter a logical progression that began gles, outlining a "confluence of opportunities" for the two busi- in June to Canadian Satellite described the two companies ef- with decisions by both companies nesses and reviewing the telco's cable franchise application in Communications Inc. (Cancom) forts as a "free flow of technical to become more involved with ex- Palo Alto, CA. Ms. Anderson spoke in Los Angeles last week of Toronto for $1.2 million. Oak and business information." made clusive product as a way of dif- before the Southern California Cable Association (see story, chairman Everitt Carter said last possible by Cancom's position as ferentiating their services. 8). In a recent report on Time Inc., Monday. Please turn to page 28 Richard MacDonald,a analyst Cancom will retail these ad- with the First Boston Corp., re- Baseball Adopts dressable dedcoders. which will ported that since HBO and descramble the package of TV Gen'l Instrument Showtime/TMC have already and radio signals that the com- begun taking measures to secure pany relays to customers via Can- exclusive product, it is now likely Pay TV 'Pool' ada's Anik D-1 satellite, through Names Chang they will begin cutting wholesale selected dealers at about $300 each. Please turn to page 32 President, COO By Alan Breznick the baseball organization, Mr. Oak. which also created the NEW YORK CITY-General New York Correspondent Alworth had worked for both Orion satellite scrambling sys- Wheeler Ponders NEW YORK CITY-Major NBC and Home Box Office. tem, first started to develop a per- Instrument Corp. last week league baseball teams will be able sonal decoder about & year-and- named C.M. Morris Chang. a Unanimously approved by the Texas Instruments executive of to bring games from other cities 26 baseball owners at their winter a-half ago, Mr. Carter said. The New Job Offers company shelved the project 25 years, as president and chief into their markets for pay TV meetings in Dec., the pool is de- when it looked as if "the technol- operating officer. showing, under a "pool" pro- signed to help teams strengthen Mr. Chang was also elected as By Paul McCloskey Washington Bureau Chief gram developed by the commis- their cable and subscription TV ogy was going to hop over us, Mr. a member of the company's sioner's office for the upcoming Carter said. packages. Baseball officials said board of directors. WASHINGTON. D.C.-Na- season. it should also help many of the "Everybody wanted to go digi- Mr. Chang, 52, will report to tional Cable Television Associa- Directing the pay TV pool pay regional sports networks, tal. but they have not been able Frank Hickey, chairman and tion president Tom Wheeler said project will be David Alworth, as some of which are fully or partly to deliver or to bring the price chief executive of the New York- last week he has entertained a manager of broadcast operations owned by baseball teams. down," he said in an interview. based company, which is involved number of job proposals from the for the commissioner's office. Mr. In addition, the program is de- "When the economics obviously in the pay television industry pri- cable industry in the past several Alworth took the position Feb. 21, signed to eliminate the confusion became a major factor, we came marily through its Jerrold Divi- months, but emphasized his chief having served the commission as and inconsistencies that have back into it," reviving plans for sion. current priority was seeing through director of operations for Major plagued earlier attempts by the PD about five months ago. GI has not had a president or passage of H.R. 4103, the cable League Baseball Productions teams to acquire the telecast "In this business, you have to chief operating officer since Mr. Please turn to page 32 since May, 1983. Prior to joining Please turn to page 28 strike while the iron is hot-or Please turn to page 28 Cable Nets Off to Fast Start Do you know there's You Are Invited a live OTAS demo at to attend Cable-Tec Expo, With Coverage of lowa Caucus booth 428? Jerrold Tech Seminars COULD YOU HUM on FEW BARS By Susan Cobb media alike with a live, uninter- "Without question, it was the ADDRESSABILITY News Editor rupted presentation of a large most reaction we've ever receiv- FEEDFORWARD DES MOINES-The cable in- caucus here, followed by a taped ed out of anything we've ever dustry's first crack at large-scale done." at SCTE, March 5-7 coverage of Iowa's first-in-the- Cable"s He cited gushing comments" Booth #503 nation presidential election Campaign from callers thanking the net- caucuses last week seemed to be work for its presentation of the a whopping success, with both '84 caucuses in particular, as well as C-SPAN and Cable News Net- for its weeklong package of cau- GENERAL work reporting favorable re- showing of a caucus on a hog cus-related coverage. sponses of an unprecedented INSTRUMENT. farm 50 miles away, attended by As a further compliment, the PICO PRODUCTS, INC. nature from both viewers and 19 people. Iowa Democratic party has ask- Phone (315) 451-7700 General Instrument 1964 media colleagues. "The reaction was thrilling." ed C-SPAN for copies of the Outside NY State C-SPAN scored a particular said Brian Lamb, president of caucus tapes to use as a training 1-800-822-7420 coun over cable and hreadcest the public 28 Multichannel News - February 27, 1984 lowa of it was our production," Mr. leagues at ABC's political elec- quirements. probably by late this in programming gaps. Either the Gilman said. "The rest of the tion unit "were gaga over our summer, the product will be team or the outlet could also sell world may never know it, but we set," at the Savery Hotel here, made available to U.S. and commercial time to local adver- Continued from page one do." and added NBC staffers com- European customers. tisers. tool. Indeed, Brian Lockman, ex- mented they didn't understand The Orion system is now used The commissioner's office will Iowa cable operators echoed ecutive producer of election cov- how CNN could achieve what it by Biznet (the U.S. Chamber of act as a clearinghouse, keeping C-SPAN enthusiasts. Karen erage for C-SPAN, said the net- did with 80 few people. Commerce service). the Catholic track of all televised games with Kalergis, director of community work's effort "wouldn't have Both CNN and C-SPAN said TelecommunicationsNetwork of its computer. Officials said teams programming for Hawkeye Ca- worked at all if it hadn't been for they plan no significant changes America and Chrysler Corp. in will be able to contact the office, bleVision. an American Televi- the people at Heritage." as they move on to New Hamp- the U.S., Mr. Carter said. U.S. find out what games are available sion & Communications unit in Also basking in post-caucus shire's primary this week. organizations showing interest in and then order them. Iowa City, said the reaction in kudos is Cable News Network, C-SPAN viewers won't enjoy as buying the personal decoder in- The pool will not apply to pay- her community to C-SPAN's which for all appearances seem- close a look at New Hampshire's clude the Southern Baptist Con- per-view operations because of coverage "was very, very favor- ed to match the three, more- voting process as they did in vention and United Satellite pricing difficulties. It will be tried able." C-SPAN "showed the dif- amply-staffed. better-financed Iowa because New Hampshire Communications Inc., he said. on an experimental basis for the ference an aggressive public af- broadcast networks. And by residents vote by secret ballot. Cancom intends to enter the 1984 season, which begins in fairs stance can make." Ms. some accounts, CNN bested the However, C-SPAN's Mr. Canadian market with the de- early Apr. Kalergis said, adding the net- nets, peppering its all-news for Lockman said "more concen- coder gradually, offering it first in Officials at two leading pay work "did [the caucuses] justice mat with a sophisticated blend trated candidate activity" in Ontario and Alberta, Cancom regional sports networks, Sports- by explaining the whole grase- of packaged and live reports. New Hampshire will help com- president Pierre Morrissette said. Channel and Sports Time, roots process." CNN executive producer Bob pensate for the difference. Federal government statistics agreed that the pool should come "The coverage overall did Furnad said he was "pleased as Although from a news angle, show that there are 1.2 million in handy. SportsChannel may what C-SPAN wanted it to do." punch" with CNN's show from cable seems to have started the Canadian households that are out make use of it in Chicago, where said Rich Gilman, director of Iowa. ball rolling in the arena of pres- of reach of broadcasters and ca- it already owns the rights to the advertising & studio operations "The people who watched idential campaign politics, ble operators. Of this potential White Sox games, while Sports for Heritage Cablevision of Des CNN got a better picture-a political advertising on cable DBS market, now that an af- Time sees possibilities through- Moines. "Every major net- clearer picture" of the caucuses, seems to be an idea whose time fordable decoder will bring the out the 15-state region that it work. was here in town and he said, handing much of the has not quite arrived. cost of a receiving system down plans to cover upon launch in Apr. the only people who really cov- credit to special events director Heritage Cablevision's Mr. to about $3,200. even a one per- "There" be a lot of good ered the caucuses were Jane Maxwell and colleague Gilman said his staff approach- cent share would add approxi- games in the pool,' said Tom C-SPAN." Guy Pepper for advancing the ed candidates' local and national mately $160,000 to Cancom's an- Smith, director of planning and Mr. Gilman was equally as effort. "I would hope [CNN's staffs, the day each stepped into nual pre-tax earnings. Mr. Mor- development for Sports Time. He pleased with the performance of performance from Iowa] draws Iowa, with offers of cut-rate rissette said. said the new network does not his own staff. which was "at the more attention to us as a source political ads; the only taker was Cancom expects the new de- have its eyes on any particular 24-hour beck and call of of information," Mr. Furnad George McGovern. who bought coder will add 100 subscribers to team. C-SPAN" for the week preced- said. time on one half-hour program. its service (sold here for about $20 ing the caucuses. The Heritage Mr. Furnad said CNN's Mr. Gilman attributed the monthly) by the end of this year. crews filmed the rural caucus reports, which included every- slow start to a number of rea- another 2,475 in 1985 and 10.000 and assisted in filming the cau- thing from live, candidate inter- sons, one of which is that with in 1986. the company said in a re- cus here as well as a caucus-day views to a piece on the impact of cable offering candidates so cent prospectus announcing its visit by President Reagan and the caucuses on Iowa's economy, much free time, the question is first sale of public shares. The GI various other events throughout drew the first, direct, viewer begged "why buy time?" service now has 300,000 potential the week. congratulation he'd received. Secondly, he said. there's a subs through licensed commun- Continued from page one "In a selfish way, we felt a lot Also, he said his former col- lack of understanding among ity cable operators and 85,000 Hickey was named chairman and candidates and their staffs of paying customers. chief executive in Nov., 1975. what cable can do for them. Oak Industries will fill the ini- Mr. Chang started at Texas In- "The national staff often influ- tial orders with decoders made struments in 1958. In 1972. he ences media buys," he noted, entirely in the U.S., Mr. Carter was named group vice president adding that for those staffs, said. "After that, we will make of the semiconductor group, and cable is often "a big. nebulous" provisions to have Canadian con- six years later, he was named medium to which they may not tent" in the product, he said. He group vice president of the con- MULTICHANNEL NEWS enjoy exposure where they live. said the company will recoup its sumer products group. "The diversity of cable is cost with the sale of 100,000 units. Mr. Chang was born in China something they need to become The Oak decoder can be fitted and came to the U.S. in 1949. more familiar with." he said. onto an existing DBS system with "Cable does more for them for a slight modification by a Can- NOW AVAILABLE nothing. but is less understood com or dealer technician, said in terms of its impact." John Underhill, Cancom vice CCI Taps PR Firm: ON MICROFILM! But Mr. Gilman said the par- president of operations. ticipation of C-SPAN and CNN Manning, Selvage Fairchild Microfilm puts Multichannel News on 35mm, positive or negative. will help, perhaps by pointing NEW YORK CITY - The places an expensive finish on its product to preserve it, and is ready to ship out for campaign organizers in the next states what cable can Baseball Council for Cable Information Multichannel News reels to business. university, public and government has recommended Manning. libraries. do. "There's a better chance Selvage & Lee to handle CCI's they buy time in New Hamp- Continued from page one Libraries need Multichannel News for its in-depth coverage of the cable and public relations once its national shire" and other states as the pay-TV industries. For research and reference, they need Multichannel News rights to each other's games. In cable promotional campaign gets in a handy. compact and preserved format. Fairchild Microfilm will put a campaign heats up. he said. recent seasons, some teams have underway. full year of Multichannel News on two reels. Standing Order subscribers will "But I don't think they're ever simply traded games while others Jim Mills, CCI director of receive one reel every six months. The price for issues from 1981 is $125 going to buy a lot of it-that may have charged widely varying fees. communications, said Manning for the year. The price for 1980 issues (coverage from the first issue, be a campaign away. Under the pool arrangement, was chosen from a field of 16 be- 9/15/80 to 12/80. on one reel) is $60 all televised baseball games in the cause it had strong trade associa- If Multichannel News is important to you. you'll want it preserved on country will be available. Any of tion experience. came highly rec- microfilm Use the coupon below. Become a Standing Order subscriber today! Oak the 19 teams engaged in cable or ommended, charged reasonable STV operations could acquire the fees and presented many creative rights to show another team's ideas to CCI officials. Manning's FAIRCHILD MICROFILM, Dept. MC, 7 E 12th St., NY NY 10003 Continued from page one Positive games in its market by paying a better-known clients include We would the to subscribe to Negative Multichannel News Microflim . the only licensed DBS service flat fee of approximately $5,000 New York City (for its "I Love $125.00 per year Enclosed IS full NAME available at this time in Canada. payment or official Purchase Order per game. That money would New York" campaign). Eme Because Cancom can market Standing Order Subscription cover the cost to the commis- Air Express and Steinway Piano. beginning 1984 ADDRESS the new decoder to potential cus- sioner's office of getting the trans- The selection of Manning is Back file year(s) tomers without competition from mission to the team placing the contingent on approval of the 1980 or $60.00 (9/80-12/80) similar services. "it is more logical order. CCI business plan by its board of CITY NY and CA residents please add local for them to experiment" with the Once it purchased the rights. directors next month. The firm sales tax (For additional information. new product. Mr. Carter said. call collect (212) 742-4280) STATE Zip a team could then provide the would start work shortly there- Once Oak satisfies Cancom's re- games to its pay TV outlet to fill after. 36ChannelWatch Multichannel News - February 27, 1984 SPAN's Iowa Caucus Coverage cuses, as though he were already High School at the corner of a winner. (When the results were Grand Ave. and 18th in Des in, with Mondale and Hart in the Moines. Long mikes carried by lead, this poll faded from view, Offers Insight without Hoopla C-SPAN staffers picked up the though reporters on the networks political wrangling that went on continued to refer to a companion when Gary Hart, Walter Mon- poll which said former vice presi- 3y Peggy Ziegler es. But the meatiest appetizer dale and George McGovern were race was the thing in Iowa. In an dent Walter Mondale would beat Entertainment Editor was C-SPAN's unedited, gavel- found to be the only viable candi- afternoon segment from CNN's Ronald Reagan in Iowa at least dates at the 67th Precinct. LOS ANGELES-Every news to-gavel coverage of two caucus Election Watch headquarters, if the election were held that day.) organization in the country was meetings. The smoke-filled room, it was anchor Bernard Shaw inter- C-SPAN put the process in in Iowa last week, serving up On the networks, including not. One uncommitted voter viewed Sen. Alan Cranston, perspective, and it did so by the polls, projections and other politi- Cable News Network making its asked a campaign worker what whom a Des Moines Register poll novel television device of not say- cal hors 'oeuvres while waiting first all-out effort in presidential he'd get in exchange for his sup- named as the number two candi- ing much, at least once its cam- for the results of the Iowa caucus- campaign coverage, the horse port. "Well," the worker replied. date on the morning of the cau- eras started rolling at Technical "You could go to the county con- vention.' For the course of two hours, there was confusion over With No matter whose amplifiers rules, problems with tallies and or standby power supplies are general mayhem, a panorama of Vital Signs in your cable operation. sooner the chaos and small passions of or later they 'Il become just politics at the graseroots level. It in Your another statistic. When that was also enough to make you happens, it'll take your entire think, "This is what all the fuse Operation, team of emergency personnel is all about?" You Spot Fatal to find the cure. But that was an urban caucus, Ofcourse. any status monitor- Attacks Before' mg system in General Prace tice where organization and personal can tell you when your amp is political ambitions did play a They Happen! already dead. But only Texscan's part. So C-SPAN completed the Vital Signs automatically looks picture by going out to Malaka for symptoms. Records system Township, where 19 people cau- histories. And pinpoints any cused in Marge Tiedge's living abnormalities. So when it comes room. to treatment, you'll know Mr. Mondale was the candi- exactly where to go and what date and defeating Ronald to do. Before the fatal attack occurs! Reagan was the issue, but politics Texscan's Vital Signs, The spe- in Malaka are apparently so per- cialist that makes regular chec sonal the Tiedges' neighbors had ups on your operation. Because a hard time discussing them at an "ounce of prevention" is still all. Once they warmed to the "worth a pound of cure." task, however, the issues were farm programs, nuclear prolifer- Texscan Has Offices ation and Reaganomics. The Worldwide to Serve You. group also briefly debated a vote for Gary Hart as a way of sending a message to Mr. Mondale that his programs weren't clear cut enough. C-SPAN resisted the tempta- tion to overanalyze anything that turned up on the screen. As a viewer, you might have alternate- ly been bored, impatient or con- fused during C-SPAN's caucus- just as if you were there. That's supposed to be televi- sion's major charm: being there. C-SPAN was the only network that really took us to the Iowa caucuses, and not to some trap- ped-up studio, peopled by faces as remote as New York is to Des Moines. Cable viewers who watched C-SPAN Feb. 20 came away with more than exit polls and projections, with a real un- derstanding of what the caucus system is and an inkling of what it isn't. PROGRAM NOTE: USA "Night Flight" features reggae artists Jimmy Cliff, Bob Marley, Peter Tosh, and Eddy Grant showing how they have influenced other groups such as UB 40 and the BY R. LaMarch Police. The show will be xnal Director, Cable telecast Mar. 2 on USA Net. work. itte Haskins & Sells ate Street on, MA 02109 MARKETING/ADVERTISING NIELSEN TO ffiliates sell the news service's two minutes percent reach among males regardless of of local ad time. age or income: MTV was strongly associated MTV, which claims success in encour- RELEASE with high income households with children. aging operators to take advantage of its At the other end of the spectrum. The local avails, estimates that 25 percent of its Nashville Network, with 36 percent reach. SALES SURVEY affiliates-representing 40 percent of did not fare as well and tended to be MTV's subscriber base-engage in local ad associated with low-income households. sales. Both Sparkes and Sue Ellen Jackson, NEW YORK The sales of a cable system's Tom Freston. vice president of marketing Roger Cablesystems programming and local avails is key to the success of ad for MTV. said the rock video channel sold alarms manager. respectively, said they supported cable services. But information out 75 percent of its inventory in 1983 by believed TNN's performance was a reflec- about the number of systems actively the fourth quarter. "We've grown con- tion of the make-up of the Syracuse engaged in sales activity, and the amount siderably in the past 18 months," Freston market, as opposed to the service itself. of revenue a system can expect to generate. said. "Our major growth is coming from The survey also measured program guide is lacking and sometimes conflicting. MSOs committing across the board to usage. It found what Sparkes called a A.C. Nielsen Co., which has tracked systems." "heavy preponderence of people using the affiliate sales efforts throughout this past -Cecilia Capuzzi cable company's electronic guide." Of the year. is expected to complete a survey at 630 surveyed. 88 percent said they used the the end of this month. Its current informa- tion, updated throughout the year from the STUDY SHOWS electronic guide, which reports program- ming in two hour blocks: 75 percent said 750 systems engaged in local sales efforts, they use the Sunday newspaper guide differs in many cases from cable network reports. Most of the cable nets claim a LO, SATELLITE supplement. Sparkesrand Jackson both viewed this as a significant finding. They greater number of affiliates selling local avails than Nielsen currently records. VIEWING UP said it indicates subscribers do not plan their cable viewing. In the survey, 59 According to Kip Vanderbilt, Nielsen percent of the respondents said they do not director of research, some of the discrepan- SYRACUSE. N.Y. Rogers Cablesystem plan their viewing at the beginning of the cies will be resolved when the final results study conducted here last fall has found week: 26 percent said they "do somewhat:" of the survey are tabulated at the end of that subscribers are increasing their and 16 percent said they "do a lot." February. But so far. with the survey about viewing of the system's satellite services "This is important because it shows that 10 percent complete, Vanderbilt said he and LO channel. people are not exploiting the (cable) sees little change in the number of operators The survey of 630 randomly selected medium." Sparkes said. "With all the selling local avails. Data does appear to cable viewers was conducted to determine choices, it is so easy to miss things. We indicate that systems are more likely to be if subscribers were using the variety of really need to work to get people to plan using cable reps for ad sales. programming available to them on the 36- their viewing. It may change their image of Last year. $70 million of the industry's channel system. It helped system officials cable and affect churn." total $382 million in ad revenues came decide if some services should be eliminated Jackson said the system was developing from local avails. according to the Cable- or replaced. in-house spots to encourage subscribers to television Advertising Bureau. This year. According to the study's creators, plan viewing. and to make better use of that number is expected to grow to $122.5 Vernone Sparkes and Edna Einsiedel of guides. million; by 1993 it should exceed $1 billion. Syracuse University's Newhouse School of -Cecilia Capuzzi Ad-supported networks are developing Public Communications. the survey also methods to encourage affiliates to profit turned up network-specific demographic from their local avails. information, which the system has already Notes Peter Mondics, Financial News Net- provided to its sales force. work east coast director of affiliate sales It also will be made available to Cable Cultivating The Wasteland: Can Cable and marketing. estimated that about 25 Services Inc., a rep firm jointly owned by Pul the Vision Back in TV?. a comprehen- percent of FNN affiliates were selling the Rogers Cablesystems and new Channels. sive source book on cable television and four minutes per hour the business- (CSI sells advertising for eight systems in the arts. is available from American oriented channel available to local systems. New York.) Council for the Arts. The book written by He said some systems have sold $20,000 Sparkes said the survey studied 13 Kirsten Beck. a communications consultant and $30.000 contracts. satellite services and calculated a "reach" who writes extensively on cable and the ESPN makes available about 50,000 figure for each by correlating the number arts. explains the technology of cable. commercial avails per year, according to of respondents with the frequency of their reviews the franchising process and ex- Chris Peterson. ESPN cable advertising viewing of each satellite service. It found plores cable's implications for the arts. A consultant for the eastern region. According that the three top scores-CNN Headline special 50-page section. "Guide to Under- to an ESPN spokesperson, the sports News. with a 75 percent reach: ESPN. with standing Television Deals." was prepared network has about 650 affiliates-repre- 68 percent reach, and USA: with 64 by Volunteer Lawyers for the Arts (VAL) senting 48 percent of its subscribers base- percent reach—attracted the largest and provides practical advice to arts selling local spots. audiences. SPN had a 57 percent reach: groups on deal making and negotiations. Peterson cited problems that local Cable Health Network. 56 percent; and It is available for $14.95 plus $2 shipping operators encounter when trying to sell MTV. 50 percent. from ACA. 570 Seventh Ave., New York. local avails. For example, it is often cost- Sparkes said the system had been N.Y., 10018. prohibitive for smaller systems to lay out considering dropping one of its distant TVSM. publishers of cable program money for insertion equipment and qual- signals to make up for hikes in carriage guides Cable Today and The Cable Guide. ified sales people. fees. but decided against it when WPIX, signed a five year contract with Group W "System operators are really in one WTBS. WOR and WSBK all showed Cable to publish The Cable Guide for 130 business supported by revenue from selling heavy viewership. Group W systems serving a total 1.2 basic cable." Peterson said. "With engi- Sparkes said cross-tabulations of viewer- million subscribers. Under the new con- neering catching up now, it's confusing. ship with demographic information profiled tract. TVSM will be the exclusive guide We try to convince them of the great each service's audience. For example, there publisher for Group W distributing a full- revenfue they can made from selling local was a definite association between CNN color. system-specific guide for each avails." Headline News and household size-those Group W system. TVSM currently pro- Jayne Greenberg. CNN director of homes with children tended to be heavy duces 150 different guides for more than special projects. estimated that 450 CNN Headline News watchers. ESPN had 86 700 systems. 26 CableVision/February 20, 1984 14 Multichannel News - February 20. 1984 Rainbow Gives Satcom Time in the simultaneous primary director of network operations for Clearwater. FL. who is supple- races, according to Steve Suits, Rainbow, local cable operators menting the programming with SRC regional director. will not be charged for the serv- local call-in shows, and some For Mar. 13 Primary Shows Major multiple systems opera- ice, which is carried daily from cáble operations are contributing tors which are participating in the 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. to the programming, using their public affairs programming. Mr. Suits said this is the first WOODBURY, NY-Rainbow production capabilities to tape cil, a non-profit, non-partisan or- which has already started, are time SRC has been able to offer speeches and other events. Programming Services is donat- ganization, is offering daily up- Cox Cable Communications, public affairs programming via Arthur H. Baer, president of ing $10,000 worth of time on Sat- dates on the primary campaigns Storer Cable Communications, satellite. Cable systems can offer com IV, transponder 12 to the Rainbow, said, "We are pleased up through the day of the primary, Group W and American Televi- the programming on whatever to work with the Southern Re- Southern Regional Council for its including coverage of speeches, sion & Communications Corp. In channels they choose, he said, gional Council to present this coverage of the Mar. 13 "Super forums, debates and other candi- all, 38 systems have signed for the with some using local origination daily update of the primary cam- Tuesday" presidential primaries date presentations. SRC's aim is programming, offering access to or leased access channels. Some paign to the voters in three states in Alabama, Florida and Georgia. to educate the voters before they over one million homes. systems are going even farther, he The Southern Regional Coun- We anticipate future oppor- go to the polls to cast their votes According to Gregg Burton, noted, such as the operator in tunities to work with civic groups through the donation of satellite and transponder time." Rainbow Programming distri- butes the Playboy Channel. SportsChannel and Bravo. ATC Grant To Fund National Mock Election ENGLEWOOD, CO - Ameri- can Television & Communica- tions Corp. said it has provided a $10,000 planning grant to a na- tional citizenship education proj- ect designed to increase involve- ment of secondary school stu- dents and their parents in the It's no longer a puzzle, 1984 political process. The National Student/Parent Mock Election. run on a test basis in 1980 and 1982. will sup- ply educators with ideas and materials intended to pique stu- dent interest in candidates and issues. Coordinators are being named in each of the 50 states. and the project has been endorsed by both national political parties and 44 educational and civic or- ganizations. The 1984 mock election project will culminate in a national straw vote Oct. 30. Project sponsors plan to analyze results of the straw vote against actual election results, ATC said. "We appreciate the willingness of ATC to provide important seed money for a project which holds we've got it all together. promise for increasing voter in- terest and participation in com- munities throughout the nation." said Carl Stover, president of the How to attract more viewers is no longer a puzzle. NS/PME. Arts & Entertainment - Cable's Newest Network - has put it all together. The solution was in providing viewers with Differentiated Programming. The kind of programming other Heritage Adopts cable services claim to have, but don't deliver. Only Arts & Entertainment has the workdwide variety of New Corp. Logo high quality family entertainment that's been missing until now. Dramatic Variety, Performing Arts, Major Stage, Comedy, Series and DES MOINES Heritage Double Features - all with an expanding Galaxy of International Stars. Communications has adopted a Arts & Entertainment is television people can look up to. new corporate symbol. a stylized " for which the center bar is an Voter groups REAGAN-BUSH'84 The President's Authorized Campaign Committee MEMORANDUM fill TO: FROM: Lee Ralph Atwater Whitworth pw DATE: 3/1/84 RE: Telephone conversation with William W. Durney Per your request, I talked with Mr. Durney this morning concerning his forming a Fishermen for Reagan-Bush committee. I described our program to him and discussed how such a group could help The President. Mr. Durney also indicated that he thought he could probably help with the food industry. He said that he would try to work up a plan and call me back sometime next week. I will keep you posted. William W. Durney Box 222016 Carmel, California 93922 408/625-1476 440 First Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 383-1984 REAGAN-BUSH '84 sevelce mme RD The President's Authorized Campaign Committee c7 pls CONFIDENTIAL TO: James A. Baker III Michael Deaver Frank Fahrenkopf Paul Laxalt Drew Lewis Ed Rollins Stuart Spencer FROM: Richard B. Wirthlin DATE: February 16, 1984 SUBJECT: MAJOR FINDINGS FROM FEBRUARY NATIONAL SURVEY (Field dates: February 2 through February 4, 1984) MAJOR FINDINGS A week after the President's announcement to seek re-election (January 29, 1984), we find the campaign at a key juncture with political attitudes pulled strongly by two countervailing forces. On the one hand, economic expectations have never been so bouyant; on the other hand, worries over foreign policy generally and Lebanon specifically have never run so broad and deep. On the net, the President is less strong today politically than he was a month ago. Nevertheless, he still enjoys a good margin of support over Walter Mondale who now has the Democratic primary contest almost locked away. OVERVIEW Americans continue to exude confidence about the direction the country is going and express satisfaction with having President Reagan at the helm. He is given high marks in the way he is handling the economy. The President also retains the highest thermometer rating of all the political figures recently tested and runs 12 points ahead of Mondale and 23 ahead of Glenn. There remains, however, lingering concern about the likelihood of his starting an unncessary war and his or anyone's ability to balance the federal budget. Worry surfaces strongly about his handling of foreign affairs in general and the situation in Lebanon in particular. 440 First Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 383-1984 Paid for by Reagan-Bush '84: Paul Laxalt, Chairman; Angela M. Buchanan Jackson, Treasurer Major Findings Page Two FINDINGS Political Climate 1984 may well portend a renewal of optimism. For the second consecutive month, a majority of the nation (50%) feels that the country is now moving in the right direction; identical to prevailing sentiment in mid-January, breaking almost a decade trend when majorities said "the country had seriously gotten off on the wrong track." Upscale Americans remain the most sanguine -- those earning over $30,000 a year, professional people, and those with at least a college degree. Hispanics (45%) senior citizens (41%), and women (45%) are far less satisfied with the nation's direction than other key constituencies. Thirteen points separate men and women with non-married women expressing highest discontent (58% wrong track). Presidential Performance and Perceptions Reagan receives high marks for his handling of the Presidency generally and the economy. The rating on the economy is spectacular although general approval of his job as President fell over two consecutive months. Foreign affairs, particularly Lebanon, remain the major liabilities in the current political environment. No Gender Approve Disapprove Opinion Gap His job as President 58 39 3 11 The economy 65 34 1 11 Foreign Affairs 49 48 3 13 The situation in Lebanon 33 62 5 7 Major Findings Page Three President Reagan's overall approval, although high, has slipped 6 points since his two year high of 64% in December. Approval has declined most dramatically among blue-collar workers, senior citizens and White Baptists. This decline is partly linked to developments overseas. As in January, Americans split on evaluations of his handling of foreign affairs -- a bare plurality continue to approve. Specifically, approval of his handling of the Lebanon situation is unchanged; however, disapproval has risen sharply to the highest level (62%) since we began tracking public opinion on the issue. (The survey was conducted just as the situation in Lebanon began to deteriorate seriously, but before the President's announcement to reposition the Marines. In December, 33% wanted to withdraw all U.S. forces, 26% wanted to keep them at present levels and 36% of the nation preferred withdrawing the troops, but keeping the task force off the coast of Lebanon. Now, 59% want to withdraw the Marines while 35% want them to stay in Beirut.) The vitality of the economy is a qualified success for the President. Americans overwhelmingly approve of his handling of the economy, but they remain concerned about budget deficits and the long term implications for the recovery. More people are likely to mention economic issues as something they like most about Ronald Reagan than in previous months. Other prevelant mentions are that he is a strong leader and that he is doing a good job. Conversely, his biggest liabilities volunteered by the respondents are the fairness and peace/foreign affairs issues. The President also enjoys the highest thermometer rating of any of the names tested (63) - equivalent to a two year high recorded in December. Presidential Characteristics When choosing between the President and Walter Mondale, Americans perceive the President holding an edge on the dimensions of "effective," "a respected world leader," the one with "the strong leadership this country needs," the "most qualified and capable to serve as President," one who will "reduce inflation," will "deal effectively with future problems" and "consistently exercise good judgement". In short, Reagan now comes across as being very Presidential -- a leader effective at home and respected abroad. Major Findings Page Four He still, however, carries some worrisome preceptual baggage on the issues of peace and compassion. More Americans perceive Reagan as the one who would start an unnecessary war (28% say neither one) while they split on who to label safe with slightly more saying that Mondale will preserve world peace. Although a plurality of Americans feel that "cares and is concerned about people" better describes Mondale, by the same plurality, they feel that the President offers the best solutions to the problems that will face American families in the future. Additionally, the President is considered as more trustworthy than Mondale. Making serious inroads into reducing the budget deficit would pleasantly surprise many Americans, not only because the deficit exists and is a serious concern, but, additionally, because 32% of the public do not believe that either the President or Mondale, can balance the budget within five years. More Americans, however, think Reagan (37%) could cut federal red ink than Mondale (25%). This margin is uncomfortably close, on what has been a strong Republican issue. Walter Mondale Walter Mondale's name is well recognized (95% total identification) but many American's (one-third) cannot articulate either what they like or what they dislike about him. And, the "like most" and "like least" responses do not focus on any specific issues with the exception of fairness. When asked what they most like about him, 33% could not give an answer; 21% gave a negative response. When asked what they least like about him, 45% could not give an answer; 16% gave a positive response. Americans do not like his over-promising and past association with the Carter Presidency. Nevertheless, Mondale's thermometer rating has also soared 11 points over the last two months. His rating now stands second only to the President's and his total name identification is nearly as great. Major Findings Page Five Thermometer Ratings Among members of the administration, David Stockman and Martin Feldstein are both rated an even 50 on the O to 100 scale. Stockman's name, however is more familiar (49%) to Americans than Feldstein's (29%). Bill Ruckelshaus receives a higher 53 rating, but he, like Feldstein is only familiar to about one-third of the country. Americans feel better about the way the President is handling the environment now with 52% approving and 39% disapproving, one year ago the numbers were 36% approve, 51% disapprove. Other key Republican activists and Congressional leaders receive varying ratings and recognition. Howard Baker receives the highest ( 60 rating; 67% ID), rating followed by Robert Dole (56 rating; 63% ID), Gerald Ford (56 rating; 97% ID), Jack Kemp (55 rating; 29 ID), Barry Goldwater (50 rating; 85% ID), and John Connally (48 rating; 67% ID). On the Democratic side, Tip O'Neil receives a rating of 57. The thermometer ratings of the two leading Democratic contenders for the nomination reflect the recent dynamics of the contest. Glenn's thermometer rating slipped from the 60 plateau and leveled off in the mid-fifty range. Mondale, conversely, enjoys a meteoric rise in his thermometer rating corresponding to his nearly insurmountable lead in the race for the Democratic nomination. Because of the major signficance of the shift we tag its major constituent components below: CHANGE IN MONDALE'S THERMOMETER RATING: December 1983 through February 1984 Dec Jan Feb Change 14-17 18-21 2-4 Dec-Feb 1983 1984 1984 1983-1984 AGGREGATE 51 56 62 +11 Democrats 61 67 75 +14 Blacks 59 74 73 +14 Hispanics 56 60 73 +17 Liberals 57 60 67 +10 Under $10,000 53 62 70 +17 Jewish 59 63 68 + 9 Less than High School 52 60 67 +15 18-24 53 61 64 +11 Great Lakes 51 54 65 +14 Retired 50 57 64 +14 Young women 55 58 62 + 7 Non-married women 53 57 63 +10 Deep south 59 59 64 + 5 Major Findings Page Six The November Outlook A majority of the country continues to feel that the President has performed his duties well enough to deserve reelection. Specifically, if the election were held today, the President would pull 54% of the registered vote against Mondale. The President garners 60% of the Independents/Leaners vote, 65% of the Farm Belt vote, and 53% of the blue-collar vote (48% of blue-collar union and 56% of blue-collar non-union). He also runs well among military veterans (61%) The apparent erosion of support among senior citizens, Catholics, and Hispanics gives us some concern. The Reagan Black vote remains a minimal 7%. The President continues to pull more support from across party lines (24%) than Mondale does among base Republicans (7%). This is particularly evident among southern Democrats (29%) and conservative Independents (71%). Reelect Reagan "Thinking ahead to the 1984 presidential election ... do you think Ronald Reagan has performed well enough as President to deserve reelection, or do you think it will be time to give a new person the chance to do better?" Reelect/New Person Apr May Jun Aug Sep Sep 7-11 27-30 25-27 17-22 6-9 13-19 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Aggregate 39/53 45/48 40/53 43/50 36/56 38/53 Base Republican 75/20 80/16 76/22 78/16 64/28 64/31 Small business 49/40 52/41 44/50 49/43 42/29 */* Farm Belt states 50/45 57/37 39/56 43/49 36/52 40/53 Blue-collar workers 35/56 42/51 37/56 44/52 32/62 40/52 Senior citizens 43/49 37/57 49/44 46/47 29/58 36/53 Women 35/58 37/56 33/59 37/55 31/61 35/56 Catholics 40/54 40/53 37/57 44/48 33/58 39/53 Independents/Leaners 42/50 45/45 42/47 48/43 37/53 41/49 White Baptists */* 52/44 40/52 48/49 39/54 40/51 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 18-21 25-29 14-17 18-21 2-4 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Aggregate 46/47 49/44 52/43 53/42 53/43 Base Republican 77/17 79/17 82/15 86/12 86/12 Small business 52/40 58/36 59/37 59/36 62/36 Farm Belt states 48/37 42/49 48/48 54/38 59/35 Blue-collar workers 46/47 47/47 55/42 52/43 56/42 Senior citizens 42/50 46/44 48/47 62/35 47/49 Women 39/55 42/51 47/48 47/48 49/49 Catholics 48/44 49/46 48/49 56/38 49/48 Independents/Leaners 45/45 53/39 53/41 55/39 59/38 White Baptists 44/46 57/35 66/23 59/38 61/36 Registered Voters: Reagan versus Mondale "Just suppose the election for President were held today, whom would you prefer as President of the United States if the candidates were ... Ronald Reagan, Republican ... and Walter Mondale, Democrat?" Reagan/Mondale Apr May Jun Aug Sep Sep 7-11 27-30 25-27 17-22 6-9 23-25 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Aggregate 48/44 55/37 50/42 47/45 50/38 50/38 Base Republican 88/9 91/5 88/8 88/10 84/8 82/11 Small business 62/30 59/32 59/34 56/36 53/35 */* Farm Belt states 52/41 51/39 43/41 53/40 55/35 48/32 Blue-collar workers 47/47 60/35 53/41 48/45 43/45 54/36 Senior citizens 52/41 44/47 54/39 47/45 40/48 48/38 Women 45/47 47/44 44/48 41/50 41/46 46/41 Catholics 41/48 51/43 44/48 48/43 46/42 52/36 Independents/Leaners 56/35 57/31 52/35 54/35 49/36 57/27 White Baptists */* 54/39 56/35 50/44 49/40 54/39 Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan 23-25 18-21 26-28 25-29 14-17 18-21 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1984 (%) (%) (%) (%) (8) (%) Aggregate 50/38 53/40 49/43 53/39 57/36 55/39 Base Republican 85/7 88/8 83/14 85/10 92/4 90/7 Small business */* 63/30 */* 64/30 66/29 59/33 Farm Belt states 56/32 49/47 38/46 49/45 50/36 61/32 Blue collar workers 47/44 51/43 51/41 56/37 57/36 56/39 Senior citizens 46/30 52/42 37/54 49/41 48/45 60/36 Women 43/43 50/43 43/47 49/41 53/40 50/42 Catholics 51/32 58/35 51/42 53/37 53/39 54/40 Independents/Leaners 57/30 56/34 56/35 62/29 65/25 62/28 White Baptists 47/44 49/43 56/42 63/32 70/27 68/28 Registered Voters: Reagan versus Mondale "Just suppose the election for President were held today, whom would you prefer as President of the United States if the candidates were ... Ronald Reagan, Republican ... and Walter Mondale, Democrat?" Reagan/Mondale Feb 2-4 1984 (%) Aggregate 54/42 Base Republican 91/7 Small business 64/33 Farm Belt states 65/33 Blue collar workers 53/43 Senior citizens 48/50 Women 49/46 Catholics 49/46 Independents/Leaners 60/34 White Baptists 61/36 Registered Voters: Reagan versus Glenn "Whom would you prefer as President of the United States if the candidates were Ronald Reagan, Republican and John Glenn, Democrat?" Reagan/Glenn Apr May Jun Aug Sep Sep 7-11 27-30 25-27 17-22 6-9 13-19 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Aggregate 46/44 51/41 46/45 46/42 43/45 46/42 Base Republicans 79/14 83/11 79/17 82/12 75/18 75/18 Small business 53/33 54/36 56/37 55/32 49/42 */* Farm Belt states 54/37 40/45 41/47 46/37 45/38 43/41 Blue-collar workers 43/47 55/39 46/47 46/43 41/48 51/40 Senior citizens 48/39 44/52 53/45 44/47 38/48 46/42 Women 43/48 42/50 40/49 39/50 37/50 41/46 Catholics 41/47 47/48 43/49 45/41 41/47 51/37 Independents/Leaners 53/34 52/36 48/41 51/33 44/40 48/38 White Baptists */* 57/30 42/38 47/42 44/45 51/42 Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan 23-25 18-21 26-28 25-29 14-17 18-21 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 1984 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Aggregate 45/39 51/40 47/44 53/38 56/34 55/36 Base Republican 77/11 80/14 81/12 83/12 87/9 87/9 Small business */* 56/34 */* 60/32 64/28 58/35 Farm Belt states 53/29 61/35 35/50 49/44 50/29 61/30 Blue-collar workers 42/46 48/44 51/40 53/38 54/36 55/37 Senior citizens 41/30 53/36 40/53 53/38 50/37 65/26 Women 37/44 45/46 44/46 48/41 52/36 51/40 Catholics 44/35 56/34 48/42 50/38 53/36 55/35 Independents/Leaners 48/36 50/34 52/38 59/30 60/27 59/30 White Baptists 43/44 46/45 54/44 63/30 67/31 62/34 Registered Voters: Reagan versus Glenn "Whom would you prefer as President of the United States if the Democrat?" candidates were ... Ronald Reagan, Republican ... and ... John Glenn, Reagan/Glenn Feb 2-4 1984 (%) Aggregate 58/35 Base Republican 91/6 Small business 67/27 Farm Belt states 71/28 Blue-collar workers 60/35 Senior citizens 53/39 Women 54/39 Catholics 54/39 Independents/Leaners 64/30 White Baptists 65/29 REAGAN-BUSH 84 Hold meetin ON The President's Authorized Campaign Committee Annount MEMORANDUM follow-up TO: Michael K. Deaver, Assistant to the President and Deputy Chief of Staff FROM: Jim Lake, am Communications Director, Reagan-Bush '84 DATE: January 10, 1984 RE: Support for the President's Reelection Yesterday we spoke about generating support for the President at the time he makes his announcement on the 29th, and below is a number of ideas I'd like to pass along. As we discussed yesterday, there will be a concerted effort to maximize expressions of support for the President from a variety of organizations and constituent groups. 1. The RNC will produce the night of the announcement, as well as in the following week, phone calls, letters and telegrams of support from: A. Each state's Republican chairman B. Each of the county chairmen within the 50 states C. The Young Republicans D. The College Republicans E. The Federation of Republican Women In addition, the RNC finance phone bank will be used to produce thousands more letters of support, phone calls, and telegrams. 2. Prior to their coming to the announcement, each of the Reagan-Bush '84 State chairmen will receive: A. A packet of information with instructions on how to produce letter-writing campaigns B. Op-ed pieces for insertion in their state's principle newspaper the morning after the announcement 3. The NRSC will produce a letter of support for the President signed by the 55 U.S. Senators. 440 First Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 383-1984 Paid for by Reagan Bush '84: Paul Laxalt, Chairman; Angela M. Buchanan Jackson, Treasurer 4. The NRCC will produce letters of support from Members of the House. 5. In order to generate other expressions of support, the Campaign will soon meet with: A. The Chamber of Commerce B. 30 other trade organizations C. Leaders of the Christian community We will make every effort to make sure that everyone who can be of help in showing support for the President is plugged in.