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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Digital Library Collections This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections. Collection: Matlock, Jack F.: Files Folder Title: [Saturday Group Notes] (November- December 1983) Box: 34 To see more digitized collections visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected] Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/ PENDING REVIEW IN ACCORDANCE WITH E.O 13233 Ronald Reagan Library Collection Name MATLOCK, JACK: FILES Withdrawer CAS Box Number 34 FOIA M02-005 File Folder (SATURDAY GROUP - NOTES_ (NOV - DEC 1983) DATE 3/21/2007 ID Doc Type Document Description No of Doc Date Restrictions Pages 2 NOTES RE MEETING (#2) MVH 3/17/084 11/19/1983 4 BRIEFING RE POLICY FRAMEWORK (#4) MVH 3/17/08 ND PAPER 5 NOTES SAME TEXT AS ITEM #2 MVH 3/17/08, 11/19/1983 6 MEMO MATLOCK TO MCFARLANE RE MVH 3/17/08, 12/3/1983 BREAKFAST MEETING (#5) 7 PAPER RE US SOVIET RELATIONS (#6) MVH 3/17/08 2 ND 8 MEMO SAME TEXT AS ITEM 6 MVH 3/17/08 12/2/1983 9 PAPER SAME TEXT AS 7 MVH 3/17/08 ND 10 PAPER 2 COPIES OF ITEM 7 AND P.1 OF MVH ITEM 8/17/08 7 5 ND WITHDRAWAL SHEET Ronald Reagan Library DOCUMENT NO. AND TYPE SUBJECT/TITLE DATE RESTRICTION n.d. P-1 I agenda (1p) R 11/20/03 moz-005 1/19/83 P-1 2 meeting notes (4pp) - P-5 R < #2 h.d. P-1 3 paper IC: US Soviet relations (1p) R < 1 &3 h.d. P-1 4 briefing paper re: policy (1p) R - < #4 P-5 n.d. P-1 5. meeting notes copy of # 2 (4pp) R - & # 2 (same text as) P-5 6. memo from Matlock to Robert MeFarlane re: meeting (2pp) 12/3/83 P-1 P-5 R 11/20/03 MOZ-005 5 policy paper C. US Soviet Realations (2pp) n.d. P-1 P-5 R - 1 #6 12/3/83 P-1 memo same as item #6 (2pp) R #5 (sametext as) P-5 - copy of item # 7 (2pp) n.d. P-1 policy paper - 6 (SAME text as) P-5 R re: US/Soviet relations (5pp) n.d. P-1 10. draft policy paper R \ #6 (a < ) P-5 > (two COPIES OF DRAFT & 1 FIRST PAbE OF DrAFT) COLLECTION: MATLOCK, JACK F.: Files dlb FILE FOLDER: [Saturday Group - Notes] (Nov - Dec 1983) OA 92219 10/13/95 Box 34 RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National security classified information [(a)(1) of the PRA]. F-1 National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]. P-2 Relating to appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]. F-2 Release could disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an agency [(b)(2) of P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]. the FOIA]. P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or financial F-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]. information [(a)(4) of the PRA]. F-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President and his advisors, information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]. or between such advisors [(a)(5) of the PRA. F-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(B)(6) P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(a)(6) of the FOIA] of the PRA]. F-7 Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]. C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of gift. F-8 Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]. "SMALL GROUP" The Vice President Secretary Shultz Mr. McFarlane Mr. Meese NSC: Matlock Fortier State: Dam Eagleburger Burt Hartman Azrael DOD: Thayer CIA: Gates Gen. Scowcroft SECRET SENSITIVE Soviet Core Group Agenda for September 3 Meeting Communicating with the Soviets I. What is the best way of communicating with the Soviets? What has past experience taught us? How does the current situation in Moscow affect our ability to communicate? II. Different forms of communication A. Diplomatic Channels Ambassadorial meetings in Washington and Moscow o Ministerial contacts B. Presidential Communications C. Private communications utilizing special emissary D. Public Diplomacy DECLASSIFIED SECRET/SENSITIVE NLS M02-005 BY 11/00/03 NARA, DATE CXS SMALL GROUP Meeting of November 19, 1983 7:30 A.M., Secretary's Dining Room, Department of State Present: The Vice President, The Secretary of State, Mr. Meese, Mr. McFarlane, and the following representatives of agencies: NSC: Matlock, Fortier; State: Dam, Eagleburger, Burt, Azrael; DOD: Thayer; CIA: Gates. (Gen. Scowcroft and Amb. Hartman were not in Washington.) Two preliminary papers, "U.S.-Soviet Relations: The Next Twelve Months," and "Suggested Policy Framework" were distributed before and during breakfast. Secretary Shultz opened the meeting by going over the following topics: Ground Rules: During a meeting with Shultz and McFarlane November 16, the President had directed that a small group be formed to work in complete confidentiality to review the state of our relations with the Soviet Union and to consider appropriate policy. Members had been chosen either because of their overall responsibility for developing U.S. policy, or their expertise and positions enabling them to request studies and information from their organizational units in the normal course of their duties. The group should not be mentioned to persons not members, although discussion among members is encouraged. Matlock would serve as executive secretary and would keep the sole copy of any papers developed by the group. Related Study: Secretary Shultz had earlier requested Eagleburger and Bosworth to do a special study relevant to the group's interests. It seemed in pretty good shape and would be distributed to members soon for their consideration. Pattern of Relations with Soviets: In the spring we initi- ated a pattern of meetings: Shultz with Dobrynin and Hartman with Gromyko, and the President had met with Dobrynin once for two hours. He stressed his interest in the Pentacostalists at that time, and their subsequent release was probably a result, although we are careful not to claim credit publicly. We went on to negotiate a grain agreement (which the Soviets are unlikely to give us credit for since they understand the domestic pressures here) and to start negotiations on bilateral matters such as consulates and an exchanges agreement. We had intended that the Shultz-Gromyko meeting in Madrid would be the first in a series, with Gromyko coming here for meetings in New York and perhaps with the President in Washington, followed perhaps by a Shultz visit to Moscow. KAL had derailed these plans, and furthermore DECLASSIFIED [RELOASED NLS MOZ-005*2 BY CAS NARA, DATE 11/20/03 - 2 - the Soviets seemed to have welched on a deal we thought we had for Shcharansky's release. Recent meetings with Dobrynin: Shultz resumed meeting Dobrynin a couple of weeks ago, but the latter seemed uninstructed on any subject except INF. Two recent meetings by Hartman and Gromyko also seemed unproductive. At the meeting with Dobrynin yesterday (Nov. 18) attended by Eagleburger, Dobrynin seemed totally uninstructed. At that meeting, Shultz had told Dobrynin that we were willing to have a totally private dialogue. He mentioned our dismay in our experience with the Shcharansky deal and also with the Soviet misrepresentation of our INF position to our allies. He asked if the Soviets were interested in discussing START conceptually, and stressed the explosiveness of the situation in the Middle East and the dangers of their involvement with the Syrians. Overall, his presentation was an attempt to stick to our agenda, by making it clear that arms control cannot be dealt with in isolation. Mr. McFarlane pointed out that we can proceed on the foundation of three years of work by the Administration, during which we have been able to mend the disrepair in our defenses, get our economy moving again, and shore up the Alliance. Now we are in a position of strength in dealing with the Soviets. Regarding the items on the agenda for the meeting, Matlock observed (1) that we probably cannot expect major adjustments in Soviet policy over the next 12 months because of the leadership situation in the Soviet Union and other factors such as INF deployments and the U.S. Presidential election; (2) that it is nevertheless important to convey, both publicly and privately, a clear message to the Soviets, since this could be a factor in the leadership struggle and could prepare for significant changes in 1985; and (3) that we must have a credible and consistent negoti- ating stance to ensure the sustainability of our policies with our public and with our allies. He noted the paper headed "Suggested Policy Framework" as an initial attempt to articulate our policy. The Vice President observed that there is a public perception that we are not communicating with the Soviets, and this makes the public uneasy. There is a need to convince the public that we are in fact in communication. Eagleburger observed that our dialogue is like ships passing in the night. We must get into more discussion of fundamental questions. We should structure the discussions so that we are conveying to them clearly our views on various important issues such as the Middle East and Cuba in some detail. He recalled that studies had been done sometime back of the view from Moscow and the view from Washington, in order to get a feel for the - 3 - difference in perspectives, and wondered whether it might not be useful to commission updated studies on these topics at this time. Secretary Shultz agreed on the need for discussing regional issues with the Soviets and noted that this does not mean formal negotiations or formal consultation. McFarlane observed that the Soviets are facing an abrupt change in their expectations. Their expectation of a decline in the West has been dashed. They have not decided how to react to this and are uncertain regarding our global intentions. Burt noted that the past year has been a difficult one for the Soviets. The INF deployments will put great strain on the relationship, but further out there may be opportunities. The Soviets have painted themselves in a corner to a degree that it may be impossible for them to do business for a while. Secretary Shultz observed that we should turn around the Soviet charge that they cannot do business with the Reagan Administra- tion, by pointing out that in fact we cannot do business with them. Burt suggested that we (a) state a willingness to engage in a dialogue on the issues; (b) point out to them that START has the greatest potential if the Soviets are willing to bite; (c) consider discussions of regional issues as a form of pre-crisis management; and (d) examine the possibilities of trade-offs, since the Soviets have more interest in some issues and we in others. Dam agreed that we should look for tradeoffs in the bilateral area. Matlock pointed out that we need to make a basic decision whether to continue the suspension of negotiations on bilateral issues because of KAL or whether to proceed at some point, and under what conditions. Secretary Shultz noted that he had suggested to Dobrynin yester- day that, even if the Soviets were unwilling to pay compensation, they could easily cooperate in providing navigation assistance to planes flying the route in order to avert tragedies in the future. Gates observed that the prospects for an improvement in US-Soviet relations are dismal over the next 12 months. The Soviets must turn inward and look at their succession problem. It will be hard for them to react to new initiatives. Furthermore, any initiatives from us will be seen in the context of election-year politics. The question is really how to use the next year to put down building blocks for the second term. Indeed, the - 4 - election of the President to a second term will convey an impor- tant message, that the U.S. has recovered from the vacillations of the recent past and is on a steady course. Thus, we need to convey our views for the role they can plan in the Soviet suc- cession and in order to establish a basis for 1985. Meese pointed out some of the political factors involved: many are criticizing the President for excessive rhetoric and for not being serious about negotiation, while the right feels he has not taken enough punitive action, and indeed would like a policy based on the "missing elements" in the paper suggesting a policy framework. We thus need to articulate our policy more clearly and develop a unique Reagan Administration view. Azrael observed (1) that there were some areas where we might desire to "push" the Soviets, and that this could cause complications in relations, and (2) that at some point we must come to grips with the fact that some proposals are non-negotiable from the Soviet point of view. Burt predicted that the Soviets would not come back to the INF talks as such. A continuation will have to take another form. We must consider what sort of forum we should seek. Secretary Shultz noted that we need an authoritative statement, and that work had been done on a speech. It could be by the President, or he could make it. But we need a clear public statement of our policy to build on. Eagleburger pointed out that the Soviets could be dangerous when they are in trouble and there is uncertainty in their leadership. We must keep that in mind and take steps to reduce the potential for miscalculation. The meeting ended at approximately 9:30. US-SOVIET RELATIONS: THE NEXT TWELVE MONTHS Points to Consider 1. What specific objectives should we set for the next twelve months, and what events may possibly influence the situation? a. In bilateral relations b. In regional conflicts C. In arms control negotiations d. In public diplomacy 2. What modalities should we employ to communicate with the Soviets? Possibilities include: a. Public statements b. Formal diplomatic contacts C. Informal contacts by officials d. Contacts by members of Congress (how to utilize) 3. How should we articulate our policy to maximize success, both in dealing directly with Soviets and with our and allied publics? 4. What specific steps should be taken, and in what sequence? Possibilities include: a. Speech by President on U.S.-Soviet relations; b. Possible reply to Andropov's August letter on INF; C. Steps to activate the dialogue on levels below that of Foreign Minister to Foreign Minister; d. More systematic use of informal and unofficial means of communication; e. Reconsider appropriate fora for renewed contact; f. Analyze regional conflicts and problems for opportunities to bring greater pressure to bear on Soviets; g. Activate public diplomacy, particularly in Europe, to convey more accurate view of our policy toward Soviets. DECLASSIFIED (RELEASED NLS MOZ-005 213 BY CA NARA, DATE 11/20/03 SUGGESTED POLICY FRAMEWORK Our Agenda: Our principal objectives can be grouped in three interdependent categories: 1. Reduce use and threat of force in international disputes; 2. Lower high levels of armaments by equitable and verifi- able agreements; and 3. Establish minimal level of trust to facilitate the first two objectives, including a. Compliance with past agreements; b. Human rights performance; C. Specific confidence-building measures; d. Bilateral ties when mutually beneficial. Our Approach: We should attempt to make progress on the above aims on the following basis: a. Realism: We recognize that our competition with the USSR is basic and there is no quick fix. We also recognize the nature of the system with which we must deal. b. Strength: We know that without adequate attention to our strength: military, economic, alliance solidarity and politi- cal will and cohesion, we cannot deal with the Soviet threat effectively. C. Negotiation: We are willing to negotiate differences in an honest attempt to find ways to reduce tensions. But we must insist on a real reduction of tension, not agreements which simply cover up real problems and thus mislead the public. Missing Elements: Some desirable objectives should not be part of our explicit policy: a. Challenging legitimacy of Soviet system; b. Military superiority; C. Forcing collapse of the Soviet system (as distinct from exerting pressure on Soviets to live up to agreements and abide by civilized standards of behavior). Attempts to pursue such objectives openly make it much more difficult to obtain other objectives and, indeed, to obtain these desirable objectives. They must be approached in indirect ways. DECLASSIFIED REGIEASED NLS MOZ005 BY CVS NARA, DATE 11/01/03 SMALL GROUP Meeting of November 19, 1983 7:30 A.M., Secretary's Dining Room, Department of State Present: The Vice President, The Secretary of State, Mr. Meese, Mr. McFarlane, and the following representatives of agencies: NSC: Matlock, Fortier; State: Dam, Eagleburger, Burt, Azrael; DOD: Thayer; CIA: Gates. (Gen. Scowcroft and Amb. Hartman were not in Washington.) Two preliminary papers, "U.S.-Soviet Relations: The Next Twelve Months," and "Suggested Policy Framework" were distributed before and during breakfast. Secretary Shultz opened the meeting by going over the following topics: Ground Rules: During a meeting with Shultz and McFarlane November 16, the President had directed that a small group be formed to work in complete confidentiality to review the state of our relations with the Soviet Union and to consider appropriate policy. Members had been chosen either because of their overall responsibility for developing U.S. policy, or their expertise and positions enabling them to request studies and information from their organizational units in the normal course of their duties. The group should not be mentioned to persons not members, although discussion among members is encouraged. Matlock would serve as executive secretary and would keep the sole copy of any papers developed by the group. Related Study: Secretary Shultz had earlier requested Eagleburger and Bosworth to do a special study relevant to the group's interests. It seemed in pretty good shape and would be distributed to members soon for their consideration. Pattern of Relations with Soviets: In the spring we initi- ated a pattern of meetings: Shultz with Dobrynin and Hartman with Gromyko, and the President had met with Dobrynin once for two hours. He stressed his interest in the Pentacostalists at that time, and their subsequent release was probably a result, although we are careful not to claim credit publicly. We went on to negotiate a grain agreement (which the Soviets are unlikely to give us credit for since they understand the domestic pressures here) and to start negotiations on bilateral matters such as consulates and an exchanges agreement. We had intended that the Shultz-Gromyko meeting in Madrid would be the first in a series, with Gromyko coming here for meetings in New York and perhaps with the President in Washington, followed perhaps by a Shultz visit to Moscow. KAL had derailed these plans, and furthermore DECLASSIFIED /RE/EASED AUTHORITY MUZ-OUS #2 BY CIS NARA, DATE 11/20/03 - 2 - the Soviets seemed to have welched on a deal we thought we had for Shcharansky's release. Recent meetings with Dobrynin: Shultz resumed meeting Dobrynin a couple of weeks ago, but the latter seemed uninstructed on any subject except INF. Two recent meetings by Hartman and Gromyko also seemed unproductive. At the meeting with Dobrynin yesterday (Nov. 18), attended by Eagleburger, Dobrynin seemed totally uninstructed. At that meeting, Shultz had told Dobrynin that we were willing to have a totally private dialogue. He mentioned our dismay in our experience with the Shcharansky deal and also with the Soviet misrepresentation of our INF position to our allies. He asked if the Soviets were interested in discussing START conceptually, and stressed the explosiveness of the situation in the Middle East and the dangers of their involvement with the Syrians. Overall, his presentation was an attempt to stick to our agenda, by making it clear that arms control cannot be dealt with in isolation. Mr. McFarlane pointed out that we can proceed on the foundation of three years of work by the Administration, during which we have been able to mend the disrepair in our defenses, get our economy moving again, and shore up the Alliance. Now we are in a position of strength in dealing with the Soviets. Regarding the items on the agenda for the meeting, Matlock observed (1) that we probably cannot expect major adjustments in Soviet policy over the next 12 months because of the leadership situation in the Soviet Union and other factors such as INF deployments and the U.S. Presidential election; (2) that it is nevertheless important to convey, both publicly and privately, a clear message to the Soviets, since this could be a factor in the leadership struggle and could prepare for significant changes in 1985; and (3) that we must have a credible and consistent negoti- ating stance to ensure the sustainability of our policies with our public and with our allies. He noted the paper headed "Suggested Policy Framework" as an initial attempt to articulate our policy. The Vice President observed that there is a public perception that we are not communicating with the Soviets, and this makes the public uneasy. There is a need to convince the public that we are in fact in communication. Eagleburger observed that our dialogue is like ships passing in the night. We must get into more discussion of fundamental questions. We should structure the discussions so that we are conveying to them clearly our views on various important issues such as the Middle East and Cuba in some detail. He recalled that studies had been done sometime back of the view from Moscow and the view from Washington, in order to get a feel for the - 3 - difference in perspectives, and wondered whether it might not be useful to commission updated studies on these topics at this time. Secretary Shultz agreed on the need for discussing regional issues with the Soviets and noted that this does not mean formal negotiations or formal consultation. McFarlane observed that the Soviets are facing an abrupt change in their expectations. Their expectation of a decline in the West has been dashed. They have not decided how to react to this and are uncertain regarding our global intentions. Burt noted that the past year has been a difficult one for the Soviets. The INF deployments will put great strain on the relationship, but further out there may be opportunities. The Soviets have painted themselves in a corner to a degree that it may be impossible for them to do business for a while. Secretary Shultz observed that we should turn around the Soviet charge that they cannot do business with the Reagan Administra- tion, by pointing out that in fact we cannot do business with them. Burt suggested that we (a) state a willingness to engage in a dialogue on the issues; (b) point out to them that START has the greatest potential if the Soviets are willing to bite; (c) consider discussions of regional issues as a form of pre-crisis management; and (d) examine the possibilities of trade-offs, since the Soviets have more interest in some issues and we in others. Dam agreed that we should look for tradeoffs in the bilateral area. Matlock pointed out that we need to make a basic decision whether to continue the suspension of negotiations on bilateral issues because of KAL or whether to proceed at some point, and under what conditions. Secretary Shultz noted that he had suggested to Dobrynin yester- day that, even if the Soviets were unwilling to pay compensation, they could easily cooperate in providing navigation assistance to planes flying the route in order to avert tragedies in the future. Gates observed that the prospects for an improvement in US-Soviet relations are dismal over the next 12 months. The Soviets must turn inward and look at their succession problem. It will be hard for them to react to new initiatives. Furthermore, any initiatives from us will be seen in the context of election-year politics. The question is really how to use the next year to put down building blocks for the second term. Indeed, the - 4 - election of the President to a second term will convey an impor- tant message, that the U.S. has recovered from the vacillations of the recent past and is on a steady course. Thus, we need to convey our views for the role they can plan in the Soviet suc- cession and in order to establish a basis for 1985. Meese pointed out some of the political factors involved: many are criticizing the President for excessive rhetoric and for not being serious about negotiation, while the right feels he has not taken enough punitive action, and indeed would like a policy based on the "missing elements" in the paper suggesting a policy framework. We thus need to articulate our policy more clearly and develop a unique Reagan Administration view. Azrael observed (1) that there were some areas where we might desire to "push" the Soviets, and that this could cause complications in relations, and (2) that at some point we must come to grips with the fact that some proposals are non-negotiable from the Soviet point of view. Burt predicted that the Soviets would not come back to the INF talks as such. A continuation will have to take another form. We must consider what sort of forum we should seek. Secretary Shultz noted that we need an authoritative statement, and that work had been done on a speech. It could be by the President, or he could make it. But we need a clear public statement of our policy to build on. Eagleburger pointed out that the Soviets could be dangerous when they are in trouble and there is uncertainty in their leadership. We must keep that in mind and take steps to reduce the potential for miscalculation. The meeting ended at approximately 9:30. ] NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL Burt- / Promit Pres. droft speech (Tomorrow this weekend- morning) - 2 Tom get together 3 Discussion sometime next what with Fres, [Paper for Pres that pulls together what we discussed] / Communicating 2 speech sov attitudes 3 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL 4 stockholm- SECRET/SENSITIVE AGENDA I. Update on Current Status of US-Soviet Relations: Shultz-Gromyko Meeting and Other Developments II. Next Steps A. Contacts 1. Diplomatic: Shultz/Dobrynin; Gromyko/Hartman 2. Ministerial Meetings 3. Military-to-Military 4. Parliamentary and Other B. Substance 1. Arms Control 2. Regional 3. Human Rights 4. Bilateral DECLASSIFIED E.O. 12356, Sec. 3.4(b) BY White R House Guidalines, Fab. 24, 1983 # NABA, Date 10/10/95 GAILISNES/LTHOES National Security Council NON-SYS The White House EYES ONLY System # Package # SEQUENCE TO HAS SEEN DISPOSITION Executive Secretary John Poindexter / & Wilma Hall 2 3 Bud McFarlane M I John Poindexter 4 Per Executive MATLOCK Situation NSC Secretariat Room Secretary 2 I= Information A = Action cc: VP Meese Baker DISTRIBUTION Deaver Should R = Retain be Other seen D= by: Dispatch (Date/Time) No further aloso Action COMMENTS SECRET/SENSITIVE/EYES ONLY Dec. 3, 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR ROBERT C. MCFARLANE FROM: JACK MATLOCK from SUBJECT: Today's Breakfast Meeting Since I will be on a trip until Wednesday morning, I'd like to pass on the following thoughts emerging from the meeting this morning. 1. I believe that the President should deliver the speech on U.S.-Soviet relations. This is important for both our public and private diplomacy, since we need an enunciation of our policy at the highest level. A speech by anyone else could lead to speculation as to whether the policy really reflects the President's views or not, and therefore could not have the same impact. If possible, it should be delivered before Christmas, to distance it a bit from the election year and to provide a basis for our public and private diplomacy early next year. 2. In my view, the speech, while explaining where we are and how we got there, should concentrate on policy for the future and should cover the following points: a. Reasons for the current tension: Soviet actions over more than a decade and Soviet reaction to our success in arresting the decline of U.S. and Western strength. b. The fact that the world is not more but less dangerous in terms of direct superpower military confrontation, because our policies have our defenses under repair. The Soviets understand that and are less likely to produce a confrontation by miscalculation of our strength or will. C. Our approach to the Soviets: the broad agenda (reducing use and threat of force, lowering level of arms, building confidence, including in human rights area), and the three "pillars" of our approach: realism, strength, dialogue. d. That we have told and will continue to tell the truth about the Soviet Union, but this does not mean we are unwilling to deal with them on a fair basis. e. How our policies differ from detente and all-out military confrontation. f. A challenge to the Soviets to join us in a search for a more peaceful world (not a flat prediction that they will do so). DECLASSIFIED/REFEASC) NLS MOZ-005 &5 BY Css NARA, DATE 11/20/03 -2- Most of these elements are in the draft speech given you yesterday, but it needs more persuasive language on points a, b and e, as well as editing for style and conciseness. 3. Since we did not get very far last time in defining goals, I have jotted down some rather laconic thoughts regarding the framework in which our implicit goals might be cast (TAB A). If you have time to look at it and note your reaction, that would be helpful. 4. I will aim to do the paper Secretary Shultz requested by the end of next week so that you can take a look at the draft over next weekend. Please let me know if there are any other steps you would like me to undertake. DECLASSIFIED (RELEASD) NLS MOCOOS 76 U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS BY CU NARA, DATE 11/20/03 U.S. Goals I. OVERALL GOAL Given the long-term nature of the Soviet threat, we need a policy which: A. Provides adequate deterrence against Soviet military, political or economic agression against the U.S. and its Allies; B. Provides adequate military, political and economic means to defeat attempts by the Soviets to tip the balance of power in their favor, either regionally or globally; and C. Is sustainable in a democratic society over the long term. Our principal goals, therefore, lie in sustaining and increasing our own strength and cohesion and in maintaining the health and political will of our Allies. Negotiation and possible cooperation with the Soviets in limited areas should be considered in that context: to the extent that they contribute to the basic ends, they should be pursued, but only so long as both the process and the results are consistent with a deterrence posture. Willingness to negotiate real differences, and a fair negotiating posture, however, is an essential element in maintaining broad public support for deterrence. They are equally important in maintaining the health and political will of allied nations, which constitute an essential element of our strength in confronting Soviet expansionism. II. GOALS FOR 1984 Background: Limiting factors on what achievements are possible: A. Disarray in the Soviet leadership, which complicates the decision-making process; B. Soviet reluctance to offer confirmation that the Reagan Administration policies work; C. The U.S. election campaign, which will influence Soviet decisions; D. Soviet doubts that any significant deals are possible; E. The nervousness of much West European public opinion, which decreases the Soviet incentive to make major concessions. - 2 - There are, however, also a number of positive factors, which will act to encourage the Soviets to come to terms: A. The shift in the world-wide balance of power, which leads logically to a Soviet retrenchment; B. Soviet respect for the President's strength and his ability to deliver if agreements are reached; C. The prospect of a continuation of U.S. policy for at least four more years, which makes early agreements advisable, from their point of view. Goals Given these factors, particularly the disarray in the Soviet leadership, our goals for 1984 must be modest, but should be designed to maximize whatever opportunities may emerge, including the possibility of a summit, if conditions should develop in such a way to make one useful. Broadly speaking, they should be: 1. To maintain the domestic consensus behind our deterrence posture and to strengthen Allied solidarity. 2. To maximize the chances of reaching sound agreements with the Soviets without making fundamental concessions, while recognizing that any significant agreements are likely to be impossible. 3. To set the stage for more significant achievements in 1985 if progress is impossible in 1984, by articulating and projecting a clear and consistent negotiating posture, and simultaneously working to increase the pressures on the Soviets to pursue less aggressive policies. This requires moving simultaneously on several "tracks": 1. Articulate a clear policy line and project it consistently, both publicly and privately. 2. Increase pressure on the Soviets when the actions are not, on balance, counterproductive in terms of maintaining domestic or Allied support. 3. Demonstrate the constancy of our basic policy. 4. Make clear to the Soviets that negotiations are possible if they are directed at reducing the real causes of tension. A Dec. 3,1983 1983 SECRET/SENSITIVE/EYES ONLY MEMORANDUM FOR ROBERT C. McFARLANE FROM: JACK MATLOCK SUBJECT: Today's Breakfast Meeting Since I will be on a trip until Wednesday morning, I'd like to pass on the following thoughts emerging from the meeting this morning. 1. I believe that the President should deliver the speech on U.S. -Soviet relations. This is important for both our public and private diplomacy, since we need an enunciation of our policy at the highest level. A speech by anyone else could lead to speculation as to whether the policy really reflects the President's views or not, and therefore could not have the same impact. If possible, it should be delivered before Christmas, to distance it a bit from the election year and to provide a basis for our public and private diplomacy early next year. 2. In my view, the speech, while explaining where we are and how we got there, should concentrate on policy for the future and should cover the following points: a. Reasons for the current tension: Soviet actions over more than a decade and Soviet reaction to our success in arresting the decline of U.S. and Western strength. b. The fact that the world is not more but less dangerous in terms of direct superpower military confrontation, because our policies have our defenses under repair. The Soviets understand that and are less likely to produce a confrontation by miscalculation of our strength or will. C. Our approach to the Soviets: the broad agenda (reducing use and threat of force, lowering level of arms, building confidence, including in human rights area), and the three "pillars" of our approach: realism, strength, dialogue. d. That we have told and will continue to tell the truth about the Soviet Union, but this does not mean we are unwilling to deal with them on a fair basis. e. How our policies differ from detente and all-out military confrontation. f. A challenge to the Soviets to join us in a search for a more peaceful world (not a flat prediction that they will do so). DECLASSIFIED Authority MOZ-005 #5 BY Crs NARA, Date 11/20/03 - 2 - There are, however, also a number of positive factors, which will act to encourage the Soviets to come to terms: A. The shift in the world-wide balance of power, which leads logically to a Soviet retrenchment; B. Soviet respect for the President's strength and his ability to deliver if agreements are reached; C. The prospect of a continuation of U.S. policy for at least four more years, which makes early agreements advisable, from their point of view. Goals Given these factors, particularly the disarray in the Soviet leadership, our goals for 1984 must be modest, but should be designed to maximize whatever opportunities may emerge, including the possibility of a summit, if conditions should develop in such a way to make one useful. Broadly speaking, they should be: 1. To maintain the domestic consensus behind our deterrence posture and to strengthen Allied solidarity. 2. To maximize the chances of reaching sound agreements with the Soviets without making fundamental concessions, while recognizing that any significant agreements are likely to be impossible. 3. To set the stage for more significant achievements in 1985 if progress is impossible in 1984, by articulating and projecting a clear and consistent negotiating posture, and simultaneously working to increase the pressures on the Soviets to pursue less aggressive policies. This requires moving simultaneously on several "tracks": 1. Articulate a clear policy line and project it consistently, both publicly and privately. 2. Increase pressure on the Soviets when the actions are not, on balance, counterproductive in terms of maintaining domestic or Allied support. 3. Demonstrate the constancy of our basic policy. 4. Make clear to the Soviets that negotiations are possible if they are directed at reducing the real causes of tension. Authority MOZ-005 005 #6 DECLASSIFIED /RE/EAST CAS . NARA, Date 11/20/03 U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS U.S. Goals I. OVERALL GOAL Given the long-term nature of the Soviet threat, we need a policy which: A. Provides adequate deterrence against Soviet military, political or economic agression against the U.S. and its Allies; B. Provides adequate military, political and economic means to defeat attempts by the Soviets to tip the balance of power in their favor, either regionally or globally; and C. Is sustainable in a democratic society over the long term. Our principal goals, therefore, lie in sustaining and increasing our own strength and cohesion and in maintaining the health and political will of our Allies. Negotiation and possible cooperation with the Soviets in limited areas should be considered in that context: to the extent that They contribute to the basic ends, they should be pursued, but only so long as both the process and the results are consistent with a deterrence posture. Willingness to negotiate real differences, and a fair negotiating posture, however, is an essential element in maintaining broad public support for deterrence. They are equally important in maintaining the health and political will of allied nations, which constitute an essential element of our strength in confronting Soviet expansionism. II. GOALS FOR 1984 Background: Limiting factors on what achievements are possible: A. Disarray in the Soviet leadership, which complicates the decision-making process; B. Soviet reluctance to offer confirmation that the Reagan Administration policies work; C. The U.S. election campaign, which will influence Soviet decisions; D. Soviet doubts that any significant deals are possible; E. The nervousness of much West European public opinion which decreases the Soviet incentive to make major concessions. DECLARATED /RE/EASO) Authority MOZODS F6 U.S. -SOVIET RELATIONS crs NARA, Date 11/20/03 U.S. Goals I. OVERALL GOAL Given the long-term nature of the Soviet threat, we need a policy which: A. Provides adequate deterrence against Soviet military, political or economic agression against the U.S. and its Allies; B. Provides adequate military, political and economic means to defeat attempts by the Soviets to tip the balance of power in their favor, either regionally or globally; and C. Is sustainable in a democratic society over the long term. Our principal goals, therefore, lie in sustaining and increasing our own strength and cohesion and in maintaining the health and political will of our Allies. Negotiation and possible cooperation with the Soviets in limited areas should be considered in that context: to the extent that it contributes to the basic ends, it should be pursued, but only so long as both the process and the results are consistent with a deterrence posture. Willingness to negotiate real differences, and a fair negotiating posture, however, is an essential element in maintaining broad public support for deterrence. The are equally important in maintaining the health and political will of allied nations, which constitute an essential element of our strength in confronting Soviet expansionism. GOALS FOR 1984 Background: Limiting factors on what achievements are possible: A. Disarray in the Soviet leadership, which complicates the decision-making process; B. Soviet reluctance to offer confirmation that the Reagan Administration policies work; C. The U.S. election campaign, which will influence Soviet decisions; D. Soviet doubts that any significant deals are possible; E. The nervousness of much West European public opinion, which decreases the Soviet incentive to make major concessions. - 2 - There are, however, also a number of positive factors, which will act to encourage the Soviets to come to terms: A. The shift in the world-wide balance of power, which leads logically to a Soviet retrenchment; B. Soviet respect for the President's strength and his ability to deliver if agreements are reached; C. The prospect of a continuation of U.S. policy for at least four more years, which makes early agreements advisable, from their point of view. Goals Given these factors, particularly the disarray in the Soviet leadership, our goals for 1984 must be modest, but maximize whatever opportunities may emerge. Broadly speaking, they should be: 1. To maintain the domestic consensus behind our deterrence posture and to strengthen Allied solidarity. 2. To maximize the chances of reaching sound agreements with the Soviets without making fundamental concessions, while recognizing that any significant agreements are likely to be impossible. 3. To set the stage for more significant achievements in 1985 if progress is impossible in 1984, by articulating and projecting a clear and consistent negotiating posture, and simultaneously working to increase the pressures on the Soviets to pursue less aggressive policies. This requires moving simultaneously on several "tracks": 1. Articulate a clear policy line and project it consistently, both publicly and privately. 2. Increase pressure on the Soviets when the actions are not counterproductive in terms of maintaining domestic or Allied support. 3. Demonstrate the constancy of our basic policy. 4. Make clear to the Soviets that negotiations are possible if they are directed at reducing the real causes of tension. Authority MOZ005+6 RELEASE) U.S. -SOVIET RELATIONS NARA, Date 11/20/03 U.S. Goals I. OVERALL GOAL Given the long-term nature of the Soviet threat, we need a policy which: A. Provides adequate deterrence against Soviet military, political or economic agression against the U.S. and its Allies; B. Provides adequate military, political and economic means to defeat attempts by the Soviets to tip the balance of power in their favor, either regionally or globally; and C. Is sustainable in a democratic society over the long term. Our principal goals, therefore, lie in sustaining and increasing our own strength and cohesion and in maintaining the health and political will of our Allies. Negotiation and possible cooperation with the Soviets in limited areas should be considered in that context: to the extent that it contributes to the basic ends, it should be pursued, but only so long as both the process and the results are consistent with a deterrence posture. Willingness to negotiate real differences, and a fair negotiating posture, however, is an essential element in maintaining broad public support for deterrence. The are equally important in maintaining the health and political will of allied nations, which constitute an essential element of our strength in confronting Soviet expansionism. GOALS FOR 1984 Background: Limiting factors on what achievements are possible: A. Disarray in the Soviet leadership, which complicates the decision-making process; B. Soviet reluctance to offer confirmation that the Reagan Administration policies work; C. The U.S. election campaign, which will influence Soviet decisions; D. Soviet doubts that any significant deals are possible; E. The nervousness of much West European public opinion, which decreases the Soviet incentive to make major concessions. - 2 - There are, however, also a number of positive factors, which will act to encourage the Soviets to come to terms: A. The shift in the world-wide balance of power, which leads logically to a Soviet retrenchment; B. Soviet respect for the President's strength and his ability to deliver if agreements are reached; C. The prospect of a continuation of U.S. policy for at least four more years, which makes early agreements advisable, from their point of view. Goals Given these factors, particularly the disarray in the Soviet leadership, our goals for 1984 must be modest, but maximize whatever opportunities may emerge. Broadly speaking, they should be: 1. To maintain the domestic consensus behind our deterrence posture and to strengthen Allied solidarity. 2. To maximize the chances of reaching sound agreements with the Soviets without making fundamental concessions, while recognizing that any significant agreements are likely to be impossible. 3. To set the stage for more significant achievements in 1985 if progress is impossible in 1984, by articulating and projecting a clear and consistent negotiating posture, and simultaneously working to increase the pressures on the Soviets to pursue less aggressive policies. This requires moving simultaneously on several "tracks": 1. Articulate a clear policy line and project it consistently, both publicly and privately. 2. Increase pressure on the Soviets when the actions are not counterproductive in terms of maintaining domestic or Allied support. 3. Demonstrate the constancy of our basic policy. 4. Make clear to the Soviets that negotiations are possible if they are directed at reducing the real causes of tension.