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5
9
3
C. WORKPLAN OF THE IPCC
REORGANIZED WORKING GROUP III
Explanatory Notes
The efforts of the newly reconstituted Working Group
III of IPCC will be carried out in the manner described in
Scope of Work
this work plan. Attached, and forming part of the work plan
are the outline of the themes to be considered in the
Working Group III Second Assessment Report (SAR) (Annex D)
and the time-line for completion of various phases of the
work (Annex G).
The Working Group will, in accordance with its Terms of Reference (see
Annex C), prepare a comprehensive technical assessment of the socio-economics
of mitigation of climate change, the impacts of climate change and adaptation
to climate change over both the short and long term and at the regional and
global levels. This contrasts with the work of Working Group II, which will be
assessing the economic impacts on particular economic sectors at a more local
level. Nevertheless, considerable collaboration between the two working groups
will be necessary.
As reflected in United Nations General Assembly document A/AC. 237/30 the
chair of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) for the Framework
Convention on Climate Change has requested that IPCC prepare, in time for the
first meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention (COP), "an
evaluation of current scenarios of greenhouse gas' emissions and removals by
sinks". The proposed time line addresses this request and assumes that the
first meeting of the COP will take place in the spring of 1995. If this turns
out not to be the case, the timing of activities shown that relate to the
evaluation of scenarios would be adjusted accordingly. This element of the work
is expected to build heavily on the work of the 1992 IPCC Update, which
contained six greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. It is suggested that this
work be carried out by examining the major assumptions made in developing the
original scenarios and, based on whatever new information is available,
assessing the validity and appropriateness of those assumptions and making
recommendations on the need for updated or new scenarios. If it is agreed that
new scenarios are needed, actions will have to be taken to develop them for the
Second Assessment Report. The work on responding to the INC request will be
closely co-ordinated with that on the same issue for the SAR by involving the
same group of contributors. The IPCC Bureau is seeking clarification of the
other elements of the INC's request, which raise cross-cutting issues which
Working Group III may need to consider.
In evaluating scenarios and in developing its scientific and technical
assessment, the Working Group proposes to undertake a number of specific
activities, which are described in this work plan.
The work of the Working Group will be carried out
Principal
with the following considerations in mind:
Considerations
a)
It will place the socio-economic perspectives of
climate change in the context of sustainable
development. In particular, and in accordance with
the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the work
of the Working Group will be comprehensive, cover
all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases and
adaptation and comprise all economic sectors.
b)
Institution and endogenous capacity building in developing countries will
be integrated into the work programme.
Throughout this document, the term "greenhouse gas" is as defined in Article
1 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change
21
c)
The work of the Working Group will not stand in isolation from other IPCC
activities. Consultation and co-ordination with the activities of the
other Working Groups will be carried out to the greatest extent possible.
d)
The work will, to the greatest extent possible, build on existing work,
recognizing that the IPCC role is one of assessing existing knowledge for
the Second Assessment Report.
e)
The activities of the Working Group will take into account the special
situations of developing countries and economies in transition and will
be carried out at a pace and be of a type that allows for the full
involvement of these countries.
f)
The work will be carried out in as cost-efficient a manner as possible,
bearing in mind the limited resource capacity of IPCC and all member
countries. This implies close co-operation with other bodies working in
the same fields in order to avoid duplication of effort.
The Working Group will prepare a report comprising
its contribution to the IPCC Second Assessment Report and
Activities of
containing a technical assessment of the state of knowledge
the Working
of the socio-economics of climate change mitigation,
Group
adaptation and impacts, taking into account the factors
described in part (a) of the Terms of Reference of the
Working Group. It is proposed that the structure of this
report follow the proposed outline of the themes shown in
Annex D.
The Working Group will also prepare a report, in time for the first
meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention, on the validity,
appropriateness and utility of existing net greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
based on the factors described in part (b) of the Terms of Reference of the
Working Group. An update of this report, including any new scenarios that it
is agreed should be developed, will be included in the Group's contribution to
the IPCC SAR.
The preparation of both reports would be carried out as follows, using
the dates indicated in the time line in accordance with the procedures described
in the IPCC proposal for procedures for preparation, review and adoption of IPCC
reports:
The Bureau of the Working Group will ask governments and participating
organizations to identify experts in their countries who could be
involved as part of teams of lead authors, contributors, and expert
reviewers for each report. Governments will also be asked to identify
IPCC contacts for the purpose of co-ordinating later review by their
governments.
The Bureau of the Working Group will ask governments to suggest themes,
dates and locations for IPCC workshops that could be held to review the
scenarios and the scientific and technical work that is being assessed,
bearing in mind the principal considerations noted above and the IPCC
workshop policy. For reasons of economy and to avoid overlap and
duplication, the Bureau will co-ordinate with other IPCC Working Groups
and international organizations in conducting these workshops.
Based on the suggestions of governments and participating organizations,
the Bureau will meet with the Chair of IPCC and possibly with some of the
experts identified, to decide on the detailed contents of each section
of the reports, assign teams of lead authors for each section, and decide
on which workshops should be held. The Bureau will also decide, from the
perspective of Working Group III, whether IPCC co-sponsorship should be
extended to other workshops, seminars or meetings.
Lead authors will undertake preparation of the first drafts of each
section and submit them to the Co-chairs, bearing in mind the tasks and
responsibilities identified for contributors and themselves.
22
The first drafts will be circulated for peer review to the specialists.
Referenced material will be made available by the Co-chairs, who will
collect the comments of the reviewers and make them available to the lead
authors. Lead authors will then revise the drafts and if time permits
in the schedule indicated in the time line, Co-chairs will circulate the
revised drafts again for review.
The revised drafts will be sent to governments and participating
organizations for review.
The summary for policy makers will be approved at a meeting of the
Working Group in Plenary session and adopted by the Panel.
23
ANNEX C
TERMS OF REFERENCE OF IPCC WORKING GROUP III
Working Group III should deal with cross-cutting economic and other
issues related to climate change. Two issues have been identified below at
this stage. The IPCC may add other issues at subsequent plenary sessions.
The Working Group shall establish its work plan for tasks (a) and (b) below,
which shall be available to the IPCC for subsequent review as its work
proceeds.
(a)
Technical assessments of the socio-economics of impacts,
adaptation and mitigation of climate change over both the short
and long term and at the regional and global levels. The work
plan should, inter alia, consider the following topics:
top-down and bottom up economic modelling while taking into
account assumptions, variables and applicability to and in
different national economic circumstances; the evolution of
technological change; methods for risk assessment; methods for
the generic assessment of response instruments provided,
however, that none of these tasks shall involve the Working
Group in making policy judgements.
(b)
The Working Group should consider and develop as necessary a
range of internally consistent scenarios for future emissions
based on reasonable economic, demographic and technological
projections, and taking account of gaps and uncertainties in
available knowledge, especially concerning the evolution of
socio-economic development and technology; where possible,
policy assumptions should reflect their economic and social
consequences. The scenarios are intended to assist Working
Groups I and II in their assessment of a range of future changes
of atmospheric composition, resulting climate changes, and their
impacts.
This work should be carried out in consultation with Working Groups
I and II.
A peer review process should be incorporated in the preparation of the
reports of the Working Group.
24
ANNEX D
OUTLINE OF THE THEMES TO BE CONSIDERED IN
THE WORKING GROUP III SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT
PREFACE
The preface will outline the mandate and terms of reference of the
working group, describe how it went about producing the report, what the
intended audience of the report is and the purposes for which the report should
be used. The preface will note that none of the tasks shall involve the Working
Group making policy judgements. Each chapter will also place the socio-economic
perspectives of climate change in the context of sustainable development. The
working group should analyze the issues as broadly as possible recognizing the
Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, Agenda 21 and in particular the
Framework Convention on Climate Change, as adopted.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SUMMARY FOR POLICY-MAKERS
THE SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT
The SAR consists of three parts. The first part addresses the scope of
the assessment, and the remaining two parts address the mandate of the Working
Group.
PART I: SCOPE OF THE ASSESSMENT
This assessment will include, inter alia, the socio-economic perspectives
of climate change, the nature of the interactions between economic activity and
climate change, and emissions scenarios. The assessment will address the global
nature of the problem, taking into account particularly the circumstances of
countries vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and to the impacts of
response measures. In addition, it will cover a scientific evaluation of the
appropriateness of the methodologies used for the analysis, including the socio-
economic assumptions underlying existing modelling frameworks, its relations to
observable data such as national accounts figures (GDP). To fulfil the scope
of the analysis, existing supplementary indicators will be assessed.
PART II: THE SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
The mandate of the Working Group states that it should undertake
"Technical assessments of the socio-economics of impacts, adaptation and
mitigation of climate change over both the short and long term and at the
regional and global levels. The work plan should, inter alia, consider the
following topics: top-down and bottom up economic modelling the evolution
of technological change; methods for risk assessment; methods for the generic
assessment of response instruments For each theme in this part, a key
question to be answered that addresses this section of the mandate has been
identified.
CHAPTER 1: SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING
Key Question: How do we take socio-economic factors into account when
making decisions about the climate change issue? The issues addressed under
this theme will include, inter alia:
Socio-economics of climate change in relation to the need for sustainable
development
25
Decision-making under uncertainty
The socio-economic factors to be considered when making decisions in the
short and long term.
Risk assessment including, inter alia, discussion of the following questions:
What methods can be used to assess risk and what levels of confidence can
be attached to such methods?
What are the perceptions of and responses to risk?
What are possible response measures?
What are the risks of inaction and of undertaking "no-cost" or cost
effective "low-cost" response measures and of taking more far reaching
response measures? (This section should take into account sequential
decision-making, portfolio analysis, benefits and costs of taking action
early versus late, and the long-term implications of short-term
decisions).
Equity considerations including, inter alia:
Varying contributions between regions for past emissions, the "free
rider" problem, efficiency and consumption patterns, inter-regional and
inter-generational equity and the question of the time lags between the
incurring of costs, the accruing of benefits and/or disbenefits.
Methods and applications of cost-benefit analysis including, inter alia:
Concepts such as opportunity costs, trade-offs, marginal costs and
marginal benefits, limitations of cost-benefit analysis and consideration
of alternative methodologies, and the value and importance of non-market
factors such as biodiversity, long-term discounting, public perceptions,
social well-being, thresholds and irreversibilities.
The value of information including, inter alia, discussion of the following:
Significant efforts are being undertaken every year on global climate
research in the area of natural sciences. Where are the highest
potential payoffs for likely future decisions? What are the most
critical uncertainties, including scientific uncertainties? What kinds
of research can reduce them and reinforce society's ability to confront
uncertainty? What is the value of this scientific research in terms of
its ability to describe the linkages between the natural sciences and
socio-economics? What are the predictable trends of scientific and
technical progress in efficiency of use of different energy types with
respect to carbon intensity and in the adaptation of species to new
climatic situations?
Sociological considerations
CHAPTER 2: ASSESSING THE BENEFITS OF RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Key Question: What methods exist for assessing the economic and social
benefits of action and inaction? The issues addressed under this theme will
include, inter alia:
Methods for estimating benefits
The status-quo option. What would be the socio-economic impacts in the
absence of any action to deal with the problem of increasing
concentrations in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases and aerosols? How
would the benefits vary with different degrees and timing of actions to
limit climate change?
Methods based on market impacts - for example, adaptation through trade,
market agents, migration of population and economic activity.
Methods based on non-market impacts such as ecological and social
impacts.
26
Major issues in estimating benefits
An assessment of the state of knowledge related to issues involved in
estimating benefits, including, inter alia, distinguishing between short-
term and long-term impacts; the relationship of impacts to the degree,
timing and predictability of climate change; techniques for valuing
impacts on ecosystems; hard-to-define values such as aesthetics, impacts
on land use, impacts on biological diversity and other environmental
problems, social well-being; and modelling limits dealing with
thresholds, irreversibilities and time horizons.
Methods for estimating the costs of human adaptation
CHAPTER 3:
EVALUATING THE COSTS OF MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY
SOURCES AND REMOVAL BY SINKS
Key question: What are economic, social and environmental contributions
to understanding, both conceptually and empirically, the costs of mitigation of
greenhouse gas emissions? The issues addressed under this theme will include,
inter alia:
Variables for measuring costs
A discussion of costs from a long-term perspective, including, inter
alia, measures such as social welfare, health and other environmental effects,
real incomes, trade, productivity, and income transfers among regions.
Assumptions in empirical analysis including, inter alia:
-
Modelling assumptions including uncertainties and ranges
-
Technological change
-
Macro-economic and demographic assumptions such as productivity growth,
population and labour force change and structural change in economies
-
Consumption patterns
-
Fuel supply schedules, including the potential of renewable fuel and
energy technologies, demand and supply elasticities and exchange rates
-
Land use
Policy instruments, and their potential effects, for domestic and regional use
including, inter alia:
-
Economic instruments such as taxes, subsidies, tradeable permits,
tradeable absorption obligations, user charges and deposit-refund schemes
-
Regulatory instruments including technology-based and performance-based
-
Other instruments such as land use programmes and public awareness and
education programmes
Modelling Methods
A description of various types of models (eg. "top down" and "bottom up")
according to purpose, and a discussion of their relative strengths and
weaknesses, including, inter alia, a discussion of data limitations and
limitations of model applications, the reasons for differences in the
predictions made by them and ways to evaluate those results, and the
integration of modelling techniques (eg. bottom up studies of new
technologies) The appropriateness of the modelling methods should be
discussed in relation to the problems of developing countries and should
reflect the concerns and special conditions of developing countries. The
models should include as many different policy instruments as possible.
Possible other issues include dynamic versus static models, econometric
27
versus parametric models, perfect versus limited foresight in models, the
treatment of international trade, model time horizons and how various
modelling techniques could be integrated. Different policy options will
be used to derive model outputs.
Model Comparisons
A comparison of results including, inter alia, distributional impacts and
reasons for differences, the impact of response measures by
industrialized countries on developing countries and a survey of the
degree of dependency of countries on the production, exportation and
consumption of fossil fuel and associated energy-intensive products. A
special effort will be made to incorporate developing country studies.
Major issues of cost estimation
Potential topics include, inter alia, unilateral versus multilateral
responses, with trading allowed or not; the timing of responses and the
amounts of reductions; and other matters such as eliminating subsidies
and recycling revenues.
Topics for future work
A discussion of the types of future research needed such as the
integration of bottom up studies into macroeconomic and general
equilibrium models, research into the impacts of sustainable development
practices, and identification of future work needs, particularly
regarding the needs of developing countries.
CHAPTER 4: GENERIC ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSE OPTIONS
Key question: What methods exist for assessing the net costs and
effectiveness of different response options in a comprehensive manner?
The discussion of cost evaluation in each of these sections should
incorporate a discussion of net costs and should include complementary socio-
economic effects, both negative and positive, on such elements as GDP,
employment levels, the balance of trade, economic structure, and the
environment. The issues addressed under this theme will include, inter alia:
Adaptation options
A discussion of different options for developed countries, developing
countries and those with special circumstances (e.g. low lying, arid, and
countries in transition).
Mitigation options
A discussion of mitigation measures which should reflect, for example,
the concept of comprehensiveness (all greenhouse gases and sinks and
sectors), including, inter alia, reducing emissions by correcting market
and government policy shortcomings, eliminating subsidies and barriers,
dissemination of information and technology co-operation, and introducing
economic instruments.
Methods for assessing the effectiveness of options including, inter alia, the
use of models and the extent to which models incorporate the full range of
options and conditions
Comparison within and between mitigation and adaptation response options
The comparison should include, inter alia, their cost effectiveness,
their influence on innovation and promoting environmentally sound
technologies, their influence on other environmental matters, their ease
of administration monitoring and enforcement, their capacities to cope
with uncertainties, their data requirements and equity and sustainable
development considerations.
28
Technological change
A discussion of the factors determining technological change as a driving
force for, as well as a way to control net greenhouse gas emissions (e.g.
renewable energy, low energy systems, carbon sequestration, etc.), taking
into account the penetration, diffusion and transfer of technology and
the different dynamics in developed and developing countries; and which
of these factors can be influenced and how.
Internationally-coordinated instruments
A discussion of mechanisms such as "joint implementation", carbon
leakages (shifts of carbon-intensive activities) linked to demographics,
consumption patterns and economic growth of industrialized and developing
countries, assistance and trade aspects, and the possibilities and
difficulties of internationally co-ordinated instruments.
PART III: EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
CHAPTER 5: CONSIDERATIONS OF CONSISTENT SCENARIOS
The mandate of the Working Group states that it "should consider
a
range of internally consistent scenarios for future emissions based on
reasonable economic, demographic and technological projections." With this in
mind, the key question to be answered is "Which issues and uncertainties about
key variables may critically affect future net greenhouse gas emissions and
aerosol concentrations?" The issues addressed under this theme will include,
inter alia:
Types of models for scenario development and their application
The assumptions made in developing existing scenarios
A discussion of the key assumptions concerning, inter alia, economic
growth, demographics, consumption patterns, technological change, energy
prices and supply, international trade flows, distributional issues,
social change, sustainable development, land use, and non-greenhouse gas
environmental constraints such as acid rain.
The relative importance and sensitivity of different variables in determining
future emissions and sinks
The relationships among key variables
The sensitivity of these variables, most notably to government actions
The relationship of scenarios to the emissions inventory methodology developed
by Working Group I
-
A number of country studies are being completed and could make a useful
contribution to scenario analysis
The degree of uncertainty including, inter alia, a discussion of the following
questions:
-
What are the gaps and uncertainties in available knowledge about these
factors and their influences on emissions?
-
What does the extent of this uncertainty tell us about the validity of
current scenarios? How do existing IPCC scenarios compare with other
existing scenarios? Are new scenarios required?
What are likely to be the impacts of this uncertainty on short and long-
term future emission scenarios?
29
Model structures for analysis of scenarios including, inter alia, a discussion
of the following questions:
-
How useful are current models in terms of their regional detail, solution
algorithms and data?
-
What are the characteristics of current models?
-
The sensitivity and flexibility of models to technical and structural
assumptions
The appropriate uses, capabilities, and limitations of emissions scenarios in
scientific assessment and policy-making
An assessment of the need for future work on scenarios to serve the needs of
climate modelling, planning of response measures, and provision of information
to the Conference of Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change
30
co.sk
New
August 24, 1994
Professors Joseph E. Stiglitz and José Goldemberg
Executive Office of the President
Council of Economic Advisers
Washington, D.C. 20500
U.S.A.
Dear Professors Stiglitz and Goldemberg:
I have just been able to review the draft for the IPCC Working Group III
Writing Team 1. It is a very good introductory chapter to the report. I
thank you for your great trouble.
I have some comments and suggestions, which I send to you with this
facsimile. I look forward to seeing you again at Geneva.
Best regards.
Sincerely yours,
Cikihiro Amand
Akihiro Amano
August 23, 1994
Comments on "WRITING TEAM1: SCOPE OF THE ASSESSMENT"
Akihiro Amano
The present reviewer finds this draft for the Scope Chapter quite illuminating,
covering very appropriate topics in an well-organized manner. The following pages
present some comments of the reviewer, listed according to the order of the discussions
in the draft. He hopes that due considerations will be given to them in the final
version.
1. On page 9 and elsewhere, a familiar decomposition equation for greenhouse gas
emissions is shown. It shows that changes in GHG emissions can be decomposed into
four factors: (a) changes in GHG intensity of energy use, (b) changes in energy
intensity of output, (c) changes in output per capita, and (d) changes in population.
(The same equation appears on page 100.) A paper by Y. Ogawa summarizes
interesting findings within this framework. (Cf. Yoshiki Ogawa, "Analyses of Factors
Affecting Carbon Dioxide Emissions Due to Past Energy Consumption Around the
World," in Barry P. Jones and Edward F. Wheeler, eds., Greenhouse Research
Initiatives in the ESCAP Region: Energy, Proceedings of a conference, Bangkok, 21-
23 August 1992, ABARE, Australia, 1991.) A reference to this paper might be
appropriate.
On page 75, however, it seems that a different decomposition scheme is called for.
That is, by focusing on CO₂ emissions the methods of reducing CO₂ emissions are
classified into three types: (a) reducing emissions from energy supply (e.g., fuel
switching and increased conversion efficiency), (b) increasing end-use efficiency, and
(c) shifting consumption patterns away from energy-intensive goods and services.
These different approaches suggest that there exists a more general framework which
can indicate various important channels through which we can influence CO₂
emissions. For example, we can write
CO₂ emissions
= Σₕ (Carb Emish/Prim Energyh)(Prim Energyh/Tot Prim Energy)
X Σᵢ (Prim. Energy;/Second.Energyi)(Second. Energy:/Tot. Second Energy)
1
X j(Second. Energy/Output:)Output/Tot Output)
X k(Output/Population)(Population)/Tot Population)
X Population.
Thus, a reduction of carbon emissions is possible through
(1) a reduction of carbon intensity of primary energy h through technological change
or carbon-fixing;
(2) use of a less carbon-intensive technique for the production of primary energy h
through price inducements;
(3) a reduction in the share of carbon intensive energy in primary energy supply;
(4) a reduction of carbon intensity of secondary energy i through technological change
or carbon-fixing;
(5) use of a less carbon-intensive technique for the production of secondary energy i
through price inducements;
(6) a reduction in the share of carbon intensive energy in secondary energy supply;
(7) a reduction of secondary energy intensity for output j through technological change
or carbon-fixing;
(8) use of a less carbon-intensive technique for the production of output j through
price inducements; or
(9) a reduction in the share of carbon intensive output in total output through price
inducements to demand.
This kind of explanation can illuminate important nodes upon which we can operate,
such as (a) energy conversion or energy end-use; (b) choice of techniques or
technological change; (c) exogenous effects or endogenous, price-induced effects; and
(d) supply-side (choice of production methods) or demand-side (composition of inputs
or outputs).
2. The last sentence of 2) on page 17 seems to neglect the experiences in Nordic
countries after 1990. Or, does it mean to say "an international carbon-tax scheme"?
3. The content of the third paragraph of 3) on page 17 does not seem to fit the title of
this sub-section. It seems to beibetter included under 1) on the previous page
4. Section 1.3 on page 19 attempts to cover important cost items of global warming
As I summarized in my earlier contributing memorandum to the Writing Team 1
Fankhauser and Cline also estimated the magnitudes of various damage items other
2
than covered in this draft. The items not covered in this draft are, for example,
migration, Hurricanes, Construction, Leisure activities, Urban infra-structures, Air
pollution, etc. There seems to be no reason to disregard them, even though they need
not be mentioned item by item.
5. On page 22, the first line of 1.3.1.3 reads, "A warmer climate implies both
northward movement of forests and changes in forest composition." I am afraid this is
a view of the people living in the northern hemisphere.
6. In Section 1.3.3 on pages 27-28, irreversibilities are treated as something parallel to
catastrophic events. However, I understand that global warming itself is an irreversible
phenomenon within a human time scale, because of cumulative effects of GHGs with a
quite long time-lag. I should like to have the role of irreversibilities in the present
context a little bit more clarified.
7. The sentence starting at the second line of page 29 reads, "For intertemporal
planning, this implies that consumption per head should be the same for all
generations." I wonder if this statement is correct. Consider a developmental path
along which per capita income at the highest income bracket remains the same,
whereas the per capita income level of the poorest bracket improves over time.
Suppose also that income distribution ultimately becomes perfectly equal. This kind of
situation is quite consistent with the max-min criterion, even though consumption per
head would not naturally be the same for all generations except at the steady-state.
8. The draft quotes a view that justifies discounting the future on a basis of the
possibility that future generations may not exist (the first paragraph on page 31). There
are a couple of arguments, however, against such a view advanced by Clive Spash (see.
Clive L. Spash, "Economics, Ethics, and Long-Term Environmental Damages,"
Environmental Ethics, Vol. 15, No. 2, Summer 1993, pp. 117-132). It would be fair to
mention this literature as well.
9. In discussing the sharing of tax "burdens, it is stated, As we have noted, it is
possible to ascertain the economic benefits of mitigation, and these are likely to be
quite unequally distributed. (The first paragraph on page 45.) There is a question,
however, whether people in developing countries take the effects of mitigation as
benefits to them, as they might consider that the mitigation simply restores the old
3
status quo which is naturally to be expected. This is the so-called initial point problem
to be addressed somewhere.
10. In the middle of page 45, the implications of population policy for income
distribution policies are discussed, and, in relation to that, the question of initial
allocation of tradable permits is taken up. However, in the section where the tradable
permit system is the main subject, the initial allocation has not been discussed. Since
the discussion above only relates to the population problem, it seems to be necessary to
give a full expositions concerning pros and cons of allotting or bidding or whatever
methods of allocating the initial emission quotas somewhere. Or, we can explicitly
mention that we leave it to other writing teams.
11. The last sentence in the first paragraph of page 48 reads, "Analyzing the optimal
intertemporal structure of taxes, to minimize long run ambient levels of greenhouse
gases, taking into account both intertemporal substitution and substitution across
energy sources, is a complicated technical issue, that to date has not been adequately
analyzed." Although much depends on what "adequately analyzed" means, there are
many works such as those by Prof. Alan Manne and Dr. Richard Richels that
addressed this problem squarely.
12. The word "emissions" in the second line from bottom of paragraph 3 on page 50
should read "concentration."
13. In the middle of the third paragraph on page 51, it is stated that countries with
northern climate are likely to find costs of adaptation particularly small. Is this true in
view of the fact that the increase in average temperature tends to be higher, the higher
the latitude?
14. Discussions on climate engineering are always followed around by some sort of
uneasiness (at least to me), because they seldom accompany discussions on
environmental assessment of engineering options themselves. If they have other
environmental costs (both direct/and indirect) with unknown risks, it would be
dangerous to build a feeling that they are something that one can rely upon when other
options prove to be unexpectedly costly
4
15. In discussing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the
draft touches upon the standard views concerning equity in a fairly abstract manner
(the first paragraph on page 56). Readers will find it difficult, however, what "earlier
discussions on principles of public finance" really mean in the present context.
Discussions could be more explicit.
16. "Table 1" in the second line from the bottom of page 56 is missing. Are CITES
and Basel Convention also included in this table?
17. In Section 1.4.6.4 the implications of international trade for the global and local
impacts of costs of warming are discussed. This is, of course, an important topic. On
the other hand, international trade in forest products may have been encouraging
deforestation because international prices of forest products do not fully reflect their
social costs. In order to have international prices reflect true social costs, importing
countries could introduce import charges on tropical woods, and transfer the revenue to
the exporting countries to finance environmental programs. Higher prices in importing
countries can limit consumption, and lower international prices will limit excessive
deforestation. This kind of discussion should be included somewhere (possibly in
Section 1.8.5.3 on page 106).
18. References would be useful for the last point mentioned in the first paragraph on
page 64.
19. The argument in the third paragraph on page 64 depends on an implicit
assumption that the timing of low-carbon or no-carbon energy sources becoming
relatively cheaper is determined exogenously. If it is dependent upon control variables
of policy options, i.e., if higher prices of carbon emissions now can hasten the
introduction of low-carbon or no-carbon energy sources, then the optimal delay of
emission limitation would become shorter.
20. There seem to be two sources of irreversibilities in relation to Section 1.5.3.1 on
page 67 first, the fact that emission control investments involve sunk costs, and
second, the fact that no action now leads to a higher atmospheric concentration of
GHGs which after a long time-lag must bring about global warming. These two
irreversibilities work in opposite directions with each other.
5
21. In the discussion of Section 1.5.3.3 on page 68, it is not quite clear what the phrase
"direct expenditures on emission reductions" really implies. Just as we can argue
whether direct regulations are more resource-efficient in inducing technological
innovation than economic instruments, we can compare the resource-effectiveness of
R&D expenditures with economic instruments (i.e., we compare the amount of
resources devoted to R&D and economic costs involved in adopting economic
measures with due allowance for discounting). Then, the efficient policy would not be
of an either-or style, but would involve both at appropriate rates.
22. A sentence in the third paragraph on page 69 reads, "For example, the goal of
stabilizing emissions would cost far less if averaging is allowed among different years
along the path than if emissions must not rise in any year; to the atmosphere, what
matters at any given time is total concentrations, not the emissions path." Two cautions
are in order: first, there exists an uncertainty that postponed emission reduction efforts
will not be carried out under expected conditions; second, when the time period of
averaging is very long, benefits and costs can accrue to different generations. These
two considerations would put certain constraints to the use of averaging.
23. Again, the problem of irreversibilities appears in Section 1.5.4.1.3 on page 69.
Here, it is stated that in the absence of threshold damage effects, the dominant
irreversibility is not in the climate system, but rather in commitments to capital stocks
to control emissions. We would like to know the opinions of scientists on the
importance of threshold damages. Would it be possible to ask some help from people
in the Working Group II?
24. The argument in the last paragraph on page 71 presupposes an independent action
of individual countries. It seems that emphasis should also be given to the importance
of international approaches. Portfolio of policies to complement or to support those
approaches might be quite different from one taken from an individual country point of
view.
25. Another question concerning "no regrets policies" discussed in the last paragraph
on page 72 would be whether they are enough (or conversely whether they would
become too much if pursued all at once).
6
26. In 8th line of the third paragraph on page 76, the word "permits" should read
"permit prices."
27. In 2nd line of the fourth paragraph on page 90, "industrial" should read
"household."
28. The definition of "Sustainable Development" by the Brundtland Commission
presented on page 99 appears insufficient by itself. One of the important elements of
SD emphasized by the commission is intra-generational equity and especially the
eradication of poverty. The last sentence in Section 1.8.5.4 on page 109 states exactly
this.
29. The third and fourth paragraphs on page 106 just seem to highlight the usefulness
of Joint Implementation in attaining "leapfrogging" earlier development paths, in
decoupling energy use from economic growth, and in reducing deforestation in
developing countries.
7
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