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file NAFTA THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON MEMORANDUM TO: Mark Gearan David Dreyer Bob Boorstin Rahm Emanuel Mike Waldman David Gergen Jeff Eller Dee Dee Myers George Stephanopaulos FROM: Ann Walker RE: The North American Free Trade Agreement DATE: June 19, 1993 The following is a summary of the Clinton Administration Statement on the North American Free Trade Agreement. This was released today The North American Free Trade Agreement "In the face of all the pressures to do the reverse, we must compete, not retreat." -- President Clinton, February 26, 1993 Expanding Exports, Jobs and Growth The Clinton administration supports the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with supplemental agreements because it will create high wage U.S. jobs, boost U.S. growth, and expand the base from which U.S. firms and workers can compete in a dynamic global economy. Creating the Largest Market in the World With NAFTA, the United States, Canada, and Mexico will create the largest market in the world -- a combined economy of $6.5 trillion and 370 million people. Leveling the Playing Field Mexico's trade barriers are now much higher than ours. NAFTA will level the playing field now tilted heavily in Mexico's favor. NAFTA will require little change on our part -- while requiring Mexico to sweep away decades of protectionism and over regulation. Removing Mexican restrictions against U.S. exports means that U.S. companies no longer will have to invest in Mexico or manufacture in Mexico to supply the Mexican market. Creating Higher-Wage U.S. Jobs Defeating NAFTA could cause a sharp drop in exports to Mexico and thus the loss of hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs Protecting and Assisting U.S. Workers NAFTA not only will create a large number of new jobs in export industries, but also will insure that our import-sensitive industries have substantial room for adjustment. The Wage Issue The idea that U.S. workers can't compete with low wage Mexican workers is a myth. If companies decided where to locate based solely on wages, investment would flock to countries much poorer than Mexico. Immigration The combination of domestic reforms and NAFTA-related growth in Mexico will keep more Mexicans at home. It is likely that a reduction in immigration will increase the real wages of low skilled urban and rural workers in the United States. Increasing Opportunities to Export to Mexico. NAFTA will "lock in" and expand trade gains achieved since Mexico began to open its economy in 1986. Mexico is our third largest export market and fastest growing major export market. Key sectors benefiting from NAFTA include automotive, agriculture, financial services, textiles, and communications. Mexican Consumers Prefer U.S. Goods 70 cents of every dollar that Mexico spends on foreign products is spent on U.S. goods. Mexico purchases more imports per person from the United States than does the more affluent European Community countries and Japan. Small and Medium-Size Business Small companies usually lack the resources to penetrate the thicket of Mexican trade barriers and regulatory restrictions. By lowering cost and dissolving barriers, NAFTA will help smaller business to penetrate the Mexican market without having to invest in Mexico. Enhancing Environmental Protection NAFTA and its supplemental agreements will help ensure that economic development takes place in a way that protects and improves the environment. Supplemental Agreements on Environment, Labor, and Import Surges The Administration is seeking supplemental agreements on import surges, the environment, and labor. These separate agreements will provide additional assurance that NAFTA-enhanced growth will be sensitive to environmental and labor concerns. The agreement on import surges would establish a tri-national committee to help ensure the effective use of NAFTA's provisions allowing temporary relief in the event of injurious import surges. The United States, Canada, and Mexico will establish a North American Commission on the Environment which will formally give environmental advice to trade representatives from the three NAFTA countries as well as provide a focal point to expand and strengthen existing environmental initiatives. The United States, Canada and Mexico will establish a North American Commission on Labor that will encourage domestic enforcement of national labor laws as well as promote the raising and strengthening of labor standards in North America. The supplemental agreements cannot resolve overnight all environmental and labor problems. But defeating NAFTA and the supplemental agreements would only aggravate these problems. Never has the United States had a comparable opportunity to promote improved environmental and labor conditions. If NAFTA and the supplemental agreements are successfully concluded and enacted, we will have an unparalleled opportunity with our neighbors to advance a broad agenda for economic growth and environmental improvement for our countries and all our people. NAFTA and American Leadership The NAFTA has been negotiated by two Administrations. It stands as a testament to the ability of the United States to design a bipartisan foreign policy crafted to the requirements of the post-Cold War world. Its defeat would signal to the world that Washington is mired in inertia and gridlock. Conclusion NAFTA will create jobs and improve our competitiveness. It will create the largest, richest market in the world. Mexico's strong and growing demand for U.S. products has created a $5.6 billion U.S. trade surplus. With a stronger Mexican economy and higher Mexican wages, demand for U.S. goods will continue to expand. Increased access to the rapidly growing Mexican market will create extraordinary new Opportunities for U.S. companies and workers. Taking advantage of these opportunities will lead to increased prosperity in the United States. CP THE OF YES OF THE STATES THE UNITED THE NAFTA Expanding U.S. Exports, Jobs and Growth Clinton Administration Statement on the North American Free Trade Agreement "In the face of all the pressures to do the reverse, we must compete, not retreat." President Clinton, February 26, 1993 The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): Expanding Exports, Jobs and Growth Critics of NAFTA use scare tactics to assert that NAFTA "The truth of our age is this-and must be this will put Americans out of work. The truth is quite the Open and competitive commerce will enrich us as opposite: a nation And so I say to you in the face of all NAFTA will spur further job gains and push jobs the pressures to do the reverse, we must compete, related to exports to Mexico toward the 1 million not retreat." mark. -President Clinton, February 26, 1993 Defeating NAFTA could cost hundreds of thou- sands of such jobs. "By building together the largest free trading region in the world, Mexico, the United States and The facts about NAFTA: Canada are working to ensure that the future will NAFTA will create the biggest market in the world bring increased prosperity, trade, and new jobs -right at our doorstep: a $6.5 trillion market with for the citizens of each of our countries." 370 million people. - President Bush, July 15, 1992 NAFTA will level a playing field that remains- despite recent Mexican market openings-substan- tially tilted in Mexiço's favor. Mexico's tariff barriers to U.S. goods are still 2.5 times greater than our E very generation of Americans has embraced the own. All tariffs will be phased out under NAFTA. challenge of its times. None has shrunk from the task. Our biggest challenge today is economic- NAFTA will expand benefits the United States has to channel a changing international economy to our enjoyed since Mexico began to open its markets in benefit. 1986. U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico have risen by 228% since 1986, reaching $40.6 billion in The Clinton Administration is committed to rebuilding 1992. the U.S. economy from the ground up. We must pre- pare our entire work force to compete in the global U.S. jobs supported by these merchandise exports economy and make sure that nobody gets left behind rose from 274,000 in 1986 to an estimated 700,000 in the process. We look at trade-and every other in 1992-and these jobs are in all 50 states. issue-from the viewpoint of what is best for ordinary (Merchandise exports to Canada support another Americans who work hard, play by the rules, and want 1.5 million U.S. jobs.) a chance to get ahead. The key building blocks are NAFTA will create an estimated 200,000 additional economic growth and jobs. high-wage jobs related to exports to Mexico by The North American Free Trade Agreement 1995. (NAFTA) is a part of this forward-looking strategy. NAFTA will increase opportunities for American This Administration supports the NAFTA with sup- firms to sell to Mexico. Those opportunities are plemental agreements because it will create high- especially important for small and medium-size wage U.S. jobs, boost U.S. growth, and expand the businesses that cannot readily overcome high base from which U.S. firms and workers can com- Mexican border barriers. pete in a dynamic global economy. NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT Mexico were $8.9 billion in 1992). This will benefit such industries as enhanced telecommunications CHART 2 services, insurance, banking, accounting, and U.S. Employment Supported advertising. by Merchandise Exports to Mexico 1000 Under NAFTA, our access to Canada's service mar- 900 with NAFTA ket also will be more open than it is under the 800 existing U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement. 700 Removing Mexican restrictions against U.S. exports means that U.S. companies no longer will Thousand Jobs 600 Without 500 ? NAFTA have to Invest in Mexico or manufacture in 400 Mexico to supply the Mexican market. 300 200 NAFTA will eliminate Mexican requirements that force 100 our companies in Mexico to: 0 1986 1987 1968 1989 1990 1991* 1992* 1993 1994 1995 Purchase Mexican goods instead of U.S.-made "Estimated equipment and components; Export their production, usually to the United CHART 3 States, instead of selling directly into the Mexican market; and U.S. Jobs Supported by Exports to Mexico Pay More Than Other U.S. Jobs Produce in Mexico to sell in Mexico. For example, 11.20 the current Auto Decree has the effect of barring 11.01 11.32 10.83 10.02 automotive imports from the United States through 9.43 a complex series of investment requirements that will be phased out under NAFTA. III. Creating Higher-Wage U.S. Jobs Average Hourly Wages ($/hr.) A strong consensus of the economic studies that have looked at the labor effects of NAFTA have found it will All Industries Manufacturing Services result in increased jobs or increased real wages-or both. All U.S. private sector, non-agcicultural employment Employment supported by merchandise exports to Mexico Our experience confirms the findings of these studies. Since Mexico began to open up its economy and pre- Defeating NAFTA could cause a sharp drop in pare for NAFTA, the number of American workers pro- exports to Mexico and thus the loss of hundreds ducing merchandise exports to Mexico has risen from of thousands of U.S. jobs: 274,00C in 1986 to an estimated 700,000 last year. (See Chart 2) Without NAFTA, we anticipate a reduction in U.S. exports and related jobs. Mexico could suffer capl- With NAFTA we anticipate 200,000 MORE export- tal flight, disinvestment, and a loss of confidence related jobs by 1995. in its economy. A less healthy Mexico would be Wages of U.S. workers in jobs related to exports to less able to afford imports produced in the United States. Mexico are 12% HIGHER than the national aver- age. (See Chart 3.) The precise impact is difficult to measure. NAFTA will further open the Mexican economy so that However, in the first two years of the Mexico debt we can push employment related to exports to Mexico crisis (1981-1983), U.S. exports to Mexico dropped toward the 1 million mark. by almost half. NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT IV. Increasing Opportunities to Export to Mexican consumers prefer U.S. goods: Mexico 70 cents of every dollar that Mexico spends on for- eign products is spent on U.S. goods. Given its NAFTA will "lock In" and expand trade gains location, this preference is likely to continue. achieved to date. Since Mexico began to open up its economy in 1986: Mexico purchases more imports per person from the United States than does the more affluent U.S. exports to Mexico have expanded enormous- European Community countries and Japan. For ly, rising from $12.4 billion in 1986 to $28 billion in example, last year, each Mexican, on the average, 1990 and a whopping $40.6 billion in 1992. purchased more than $450 worth of U.S.-made The U.S. trade balance with Mexico has shifted products. By contrast, the average Japanese spent from a $5.7 billion deficit in 1987 to a $5.6 billion $385 on U.S. products, despite the fact that aver- SURPLUS in 1992. (See Chart 4.) age Japanese incomes are five times as high as average Mexican incomes. CHART 4 Key sectors benefitting from NAFTA include auto- U.S. Merchandise Trade with Mexico: motive, agriculture, financial services, textiles, and From Deficit to Surplus communications: 15 U.S. telecommunications exports jumped 50% in U.S. Exports 1991. Mexico is the industry's second largest export U.S. Imports U.S. Surplus market after Canada. 35 Detroit's Big 3 predict that their combined exports Billion U.S. $ could rise from 1,000-plus to over 60,000 vehicles 25 NAFTA in NAFTA's first year alone. U.S. Deficit Negotiations Began Mexico was primarily a bulk commodity market for :5 U.S. agricultural exports prior to 1987. Now it is Mexico one of the United States' largest and fastest growing Joined GATT high-value markets. High-value products now 5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 account for almost 70% of all U.S. agricultural sales versus 40% in 1987. Mexico is important to the U.S. economy because it Small and Medium-Size Businesses is our: The significant expansion of the Mexican market Third largest export market and the fastest grow- will benefit small and medium-size businesses in ing major export market: particular. These companies usually lack the resources Since 1986, U.S. merchandise exports to to penetrate the thicket of Mexican trade barriers and Mexico have increased by 228% (to $40.6 regulatory restrictions. By lowering costs and dissolv- billion)-2.3 times faster than U.S. exports ing barriers, NAFTA will help smaller businesses to to the world. penetrate the Mexican market without having to invest in Mexico. Second largest market after Canada for manufac- tured exports (amounting to $34.5 billion in 1992). V. Enhancing Environmental Protection Third largest market for agricultural products (after Japan and Canada), reaching $3.7 billion in 1992 NAFTA and its supplemental agreements will help (a 242% increase since 1986). ensure that económic development takes place in a way that protects and improves the environment. NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT VIL NAFTA and American Leadership NAFTA'S defeat would shock the Mexican econo- my, depress wages and living standards, reduce the In the post-Cold War world, American leadership will Mexican capacity to purchase U.S. products, and be measured in part by the creativity and aggressive- stimulate immigration. It could also create tensions ness of our trade policy. Bold, original, and forward- on a host of critical issues from illegal drugs to oil. looking, NAFTA is worthy of a world leader. NAFTA's defeat would also throw sand in the eyes In North America, division between foreign and of our allies throughout Central and South America, domestic matters narrows every day. American who are striving to open their markets and democ- communities are inevitably affected by what hap- ratize their societies. Anti-Americanism, protection- pens in Canada and Mexico. Their problems spill ism, and authoritarianism may well increase. A over the border to harm us-just as their success NAFTA defeat would be a major, self-inflicted set- adds to our welfare. back to American leadership. By increasing the flows of commerce and culture and by forging new cross-border friendships Conclusion among labor and environmental organizations, the NAFTA will promote prosperity and democracy in NAFTA will create jobs and improve our competitive- neighboring Mexico. Americans who favor freedom ness. It will create the largest, richest market in the and good government in Mexico should favor world. Mexico's strong and growing demand for U.S. NAFTA. products has created a $5.6 billion U.S. trade surplus. With a stronger Mexican economy and higher Mexican NAFTA has been negotiated by two Administrations. wages, demand for U.S. goods will continue to expand It stands as a testament to the ability of the United Increased access to the rapidly growing Mexican mar- States to design a bipartisan foreign policy craft- ket will create extraordinary new opportunities for U.S. ed to the requirements of the post-Cold War companies and workers. Taking advantage of these world. Its defeat would signal to the world that opportunities will lead to increased prosperity in the Washington is mired in inertia and gridlock United States. NAFTA's defeat would raise serious questions about America's commitment to global leadership, NAFTA Is Good For America thereby undercutting our influence throughout the world. Questions and Answers about NAFTA Q. How can Mexico, a low-income country, be such a Q. Will NAFTA result in massive U.S. job lasses to low- large market for U.S. exports? wage Mexican workers' A. Mexico now is our third-largest trading partner. A. No. NAFTA will increase jobs, productivity and Although Mexican per capita incomes are low rela- wages in the United States as well as in Mexico tive to incomes in the United States, Mexico is a and Canada. If lower wages were the only reason country of 90 million people (who prefer U.S. to that companies, moved to other countries, Haiti and other foreign products) and a developing country Bangladesh would be economic powerhouses by with an improving economic outlook. On a per now. Other factors such as high worker productiv- capita basis, Mexico purchases more U.S. products ity in the United States and high non-wage costs than our trade partners in the European in Mexico (including transportation, infrastructure, Community and Japan. NAFTA will help the United and support service costs) make U.S. workers more States. take further advantage of the growing competitive than their Mexican counterparts. Mexican market for U.S. exports. NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT Q. What has been the effect of the 1989 United States- United States. These are not jobs "lost" by American Canada Free Trade Agreement on U.S. exports? workers, but rather U.S. jobs foregone by Mexican workers for whom NAFTA will provide an accept- A. Before the agreement, Canada had tariffs on able economic alternative at home. imports that were two or three times higher than those of the United States (similar to Mexico today). Without NAFTA and a stronger Mexican economy, After the agreement to eliminate tariffs and other pressures for illegal Mexican emigration to the barriers on all United States-Canada trade flows and United States would only continue to increase. many restrictions on investment and services, U.S. merchandise exports grew 27% between 1988 and Q. In the short term, would eliminating Mexico's barri- 1992 (from $71.6 billion to $90 billion). U.S. service ers to U.S. agricultural imports lead to more rural exports to Canada increased by 78% to $17.2 bil- Mexican unemployment and increase pressures to lion during the same time period. Also, since the migrate to the United States? agreement, there have been numerous calls from A. The NAFTA agreement contains the longest phase- both sides of the border to accelerate the sched- in period (up to 15 years) for Mexico to liberalize uled phase out of tariffs. agricultural trade policies with the United States and Canada. This gives Mexican farm laborers time to Q. What long-term impact will NAFTA have on illegal adjust and will help minimize short-term immigra- immigration from Mexico? tion effects. With or without NAFTA, agricultural A. NAFTA will promote economic growth and increase reforms will continue to reduce Mexican agricultur- wages in all three countries. This will create more al employment. NAFTA will enhance the opportu- economic opportunities for workers in Mexico— nities for displaced Mexican agricultural workers to the single most important, long-term remedy to ille- find other jobs in the Mexican economy. gal migration from that country. According to some scholars, significant real wage increases could also Q. Wont't increase trade flows from NAFTA worsen the occur for U.S. rural and lower skilled urban work- flow of illegal drugs into the United States? ers as a result of reduced emigration from Mexico A. While NAFTA will reduce tariffs, it will not relax to the United States. customs controls on the border. As trade between Some economic studies of NAFTA considering the the United States and Mexico has increased in immigration issue have been misconstrued to sug- recent years, cooperation in counternarcotics and gest that hundreds of thousands of Americans law enforcement has improved. By promoting U.S.- would lose their jobs because of NAFTA. In fact, Mexican cooperation, the NAFTA can foster a posi- these studies do not show such results. The "U.S." tive atmosphere for further bilateral efforts to fight job losses turn out to be hundreds of thousands of drugs. Mexican workers who decide to remain in Mexico because of the enhanced job opportunities created by NAFTA; without NAFTA, they would have crossed the border to compete for jobs in the NAFTA CREATES JOBS AND IMPROVES OUR COMPETITIVENESS President Clinton supports the NAFTA as an important element of his strategy for harnessing change in today's competitive international economy. NAFTA will increase U.S. exports and create high-wage, high-skill jobs. At the same time, supplemental agreements and legislation envisioned by the President will ensure that increased trade does not come at the cost of workers or the environment. Exports create jobs, and increased access to Mexico's market of 90 million people will provide new opportunities for American exports. Mexico is already the second largest market for American manufacturing products and the third largest market for U.S. farm exports. Taking advantage of these opportunities will translate to increased prosperity in the United States. From 1986 to 1992, exports from the United States to Mexico increased from $12.4 billion to $40.6 billion. Our $5.7 billion trade deficit in 1987 was transformed to a $5.4 billion surplus in 1992. Since Mexico began opening its market in 1986, more than 400,000 export related jobs have been created. Today, over 700,000 jobs in the United States are supported by exports to Mexico. With the NAFTA, we forecast a gain of 200,000 such jobs by 1995. Without NAFTA, we would be unlikely to maintain the status quo. If exports fell by as little as one-quarter, we would lose 200,000 export related jobs. Moreover, the jobs gained are high paying; jobs related to exports to Mexico average 12 percent more than the average wage for all jobs. Mexico prefers U.S. goods. Last year, each Mexican, on the average, purchased more than $450 worth of U.S.-made products. By contrast, the average Japanese spent $385 on U.S. products, despite the fact that average Japanese incomes are dramatically higher than Mexican incomes. Through this agreement with Canada and Mexico, the NAFTA will create the largest market in the world - more than 370 million consumers and over $6.5 trillion of production. That larger market will help our products be more competitive in global markets, with Europe, Asia and the rest of the world. Critics claim that low wages will result in an exodus of jobs from the United States. If low wages were the driving factor in deciding where factories should locate, Haiti and Bangladesh would be world manufacturing powers. Our workers are far better paid than those of Mexico and other countries because we have the most productive workers in the world and because the United States has such a significant advantage in the other factors that go into competitiveness, such as transportation, communications, and infrastructure. The NAFTA eliminates Mexican import restrictions and investment requirements that have forced some manufacturers to move to Mexico in order to sell there. The NAFTA will eliminate those barriers, opening vast new opportunities in what is already the second largest market in the world for U.S. manufactured products. Because the U.S. market is largely already open to Mexican goods, the NAFTA will have less effect on U.S. imports as it does on exports. Half of the products we import from Mexico are already free of tariffs, and the average current U.S. tariff on Mexican products is only 4 percent, while Mexican duties on U.S. products average ten percent. Thus NAFTA eliminates much higher barriers to U.S. exports than to our imports from Mexico. NAFTA will level the playing field with a country with whom we already successfully compete. OTHER ADMINISTRATION INITIATIVES The text of the NAFTA was signed last December by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. President Clinton is committed to the NAFTA with a package of supplemental agreements and domestic programs that will include strong provisions on labor, the environment, import surges, border clean-up, and worker adjustment assistance. The Clinton Administration has concluded supplemental agreements on labor, environment, and import surges to strengthen enforcement of national laws and promote cooperation in these areas. We will establish separate commissions on labor and the environment, chaired by appropriate Cabinet-level officials, to achieve these ends. For a more detailed description of the supplemental agreements, please see Tab E. Even though NAFTA will create far more and better jobs than it will cost, the Administration realizes some workers may be negatively affected. As a result, the Administration currently is formulating a strong worker adjustment program to assist those hurt by the NAFTA. The President also is committed to a strong and creative border cleanup package. The NEC currently is reviewing funding options, and the Administration will work with Congress and with Mexico on these issues. TIMING The Administration will sign the supplemental agreements this month and begin the process of drafting the implementing legislation with the Congress shortly thereafter. Our goal is for the NAFTA to enter into force on January 1, 1994, as scheduled. The Administration will work with Congress, and in consultation with State and local authorities and the private sector, to develop strong implementing legislation so that we 2 are in the best possible position to obtain the full benefits of the NAFTA. Once the implementing legislation is submitted, it will be entitled to "fast track" treatment, meaning that Congress will vote "yes" or "no" on the agreement (without making amendments) within 90 session days of Congress. Traditionally, we have not needed the full 90 days, because the Executive Branch has worked so closely with the Congress to develop a strong implementing bill. HOW THE NAFTA APPLIES TO THE STATES The NAFTA will benefit the entire country, not just selected regions. Forty-eight ous of fifty states increased exports to Mexico from 1986 to 1992. Twenty-one states exported more than $250 million to Mexico in 1992. Five of the top ten states exporting to Mexico are northern industrial states. Standards NAFTA permits the states to set their own standards, including standards on plant and animal health and safety and the environment. NAFTA does not interfere with the ability of states to set mandatory standards. State standards may be more stringent than federal standards. NAFTA does not require states to lower their standards to make them compatible with Mexican or Canadian standards. NAFTA rules are simply a re-statement of sound policy-making in the health and environment area and are those we already live with, for example that health and safety measures should have a scientific basis. Services NAFTA does not pre-empt the ability of states to regulate and license services, such as medical, legal, insurance and other services. All levels of government - state, local and federal - are covered by NAFTA and new regulations must comply with the Agreement. Existing measures at the state and local level that do not conform with the Agreement do not have to be changed, except for citizenship requirements affecting the licensing and certification of professionals. Existing local laws are automatically "grandfathered" (exempted from NAFTA). 3 Any non-conforming state laws which states wish to exempt must be listed within two years of entry into force of the Agreement, but there are no restrictions on the number of measures that may be listed. The federal government will work with the states to ensure proper listing of all measures to be retained. We have committed ourselves to removing citizenship requirements affecting the licensing and certification of professionals within two years of entry into force of NAFTA. Financial Services Like services, states will be able to maintain existing regulations, but they must be listed if they conflict with NAFTA obligations. For the states of California, Florida, Illinois, New York, Ohio and Texas, non- conforming measures must be listed by entry into force of the Agreement; other states must list their measures by January 1, 1995. Government Procurement State government procurement practices are not subject to the NAFTA. States will have the opportunity to voluntarily enter into future procurement negotiations. U.S. small and minority business set-aside programs are maintained intact. Investment States also will be able to take reservations (exemptions) for non-conforming measures affecting investment. As with services, the states have two years after entry into force of the Agreement to do this. Land Transportation States will maintain their authority to impose and enforce safety regulations concerning land transportation services. Telecommunications NAFTA does not apply to basic telecommunications services. There is no change required in the state or federal regulation of common carrier services, such as local telephone exchanges. 4 Dispute Settlement Should a formal dispute settlement case be brought against a state measure, the Federal government would notify and work with a state from the initiation of a challenge under NAFTA. State government representatives would participate in arbitration proceedings. A dispute settlement panel cannot force a state to change a law. It merely determines if a measure violates NAFTA. If a measure is determined to violate NAFTA and is not altered, the challenger may request trade compensation or withdraw trade benefits of equivalent effect if appropriate compensation is not made. U.S. CONSUMER GOODS TO MEXICO - A BOOMING MARKET From 1987 to 1992, exports from the United States to Mexico increased from $14.6 billion to $40.6 billion. Our $5.7 billion trade deficit in 1987 was transformed to a $5.4 billion surplus in 1992. Consumer goods exports to Mexico shot up dramatically in the past five years - quadrupling from $1.1 billion in 1987 to $4.4 billion in 1992. Consumer goods exports are growing faster to Mexico than to the rest of world. Over the past five years, consumer goods exports to Mexico grew by 31 percent annually, compared to the rest of the world at 17 percent, Japan at 15 percent, and the European Community at 16 percent. Mexico buys as much as developed countries. Although a developing country, Mexico compares well to developed countries in the percentage of U.S. consumer goods purchased. Eleven percent of U.S. exports to Mexico are consumer goods, compared to 12 percent in developed countries. Export growth to Mexico is shared broadly among product areas, with many consumer goods in our top 50 U.S. exports, ranging from musical instruments to furniture to sporting goods. Mexican consumers prefer U.S. goods. Last year each Mexican purchased $49 of U.S. consumer products. By contrast, each Japanese spent an average of $47, despite the fact that the average Japanese incomes are dramatically higher than the average Mexican income. 5 The Mexican market is 90 million strong, and growing at twice the rate of our own market. Exports create jobs, and increased access to Mexico's 90 million people will provide new opportunities for American exporters. Today almost $1 out of every $10 of U.S. exports goes to Mexico. An additional $2 of that ten goes to Canada, our other NAFTA partner. Put another way, Mexico buys 70 percent of its imports from the United States. U.S. consumer goods companies like Colgate-Palmolive, Procter & Gamble, and 3M are enjoying booming sales in Mexico, and strongly support the NAFTA. 3M Vice President for Latin America Allan Petersen said: "All this growth at 3M has taken place to date with only a partial roll-back of trade barriers. The North American Free Trade Agreement will bring even freer trade. It will also give Mexico's trade policies the force of law, which ensures that they will not be revoked for short-term political reasons. 6 S A PROPONENT of a tough-minded, results A oriented trade policy, I have supported the principle of the North American Free Trade Agreement but have been concerned about its specific provisions. Nevertheless," I believe the time has now come for Congress to ratify NAFTA. Here's why The agreement is admittedly not flawless, and be- NAFTA: cause passage is very uncertain, the administration should press for accelerated removal of trade barriers, as provided for in the treaty-as well as for a commit-: ment from the Mexicans linking increased productivity to increased wages for Mexican workers. But even with its imperfections, NAFTA will leave America better off Why We than before. Moreover, its passage will help us to deal better with the much more important-but much more obscure-issues of the Uruguay Round of world trade talks, and the framework negotiations with Japan that Hafta are currently being obscured by the NAFTA uproar. Those who are rightly concerned about jobs should remember that the United States has a $5.4 billion trade surplus with Mexico, while its trade deficit with How I Overcame My Doubts Asia is over $75 billion. This means the United States is gaining jobs as a result of trade with Mexico while los- And Learned to Like the Pact ing nearly 2 million jobs in its trade with Asia. There is indeed, as Ross Perot has said, a "giant sucking sound" threatening U.S. workers, but it doesn't emanate from south of the border. For 30 years the giant sucking sound has been coming from the East, and it represents a much bigger trade and jobs policy challenge than NAFTA. Unfortunately, the Uruguay Round is proceeding toward a planned finish on Dec. 15 with a draft agree: ment on the table that, if enacted, would eviscerate U.S. trade laws, making it. extremely difficult to re- spond to the persistent dumping and subsidization that have devastated such U.S. industries as consumer elec- tronics, steel, semiconductors and aircraft. By comparison, NAFTA should improve our short- -to-medium-term situation and may enable us to com pete better with Asia in the longer term. To grasp this; it is important to understand one of the great fallacies of the NAFTA discussion-the notion that the United- States is sweeping away barriers to exports from Mex- ico to America. Thus (it is claimed) the agreement will. encourage U.S. firms to move south in search of cheap- labor. In fact, the agreement doesn't change the situation along the border that much. The United States current- ly has only a 4 percent average tariff rate and very few other restrictions on Mexican imports. Under the terms of NAFTA, we are giving away very little. The barriers that are being removed are mostly on the Mex- ican side. Ironically their removal may actually reduce incentives for U.S. firms to move south. Take the minivan, the fastest growing segment of the vehicle market. Because of Mexican regulations, ITO minivans are sold south of the border. But with the Mexican auto market booming, there is demand for minivans. Under the present Mexican auto decree, to See NAFTA, C4, Col. 1 Clyde Prestowitz is president of the Economic Strategy Institute. nums NAFTA: Why We Hafta U.S. firms a lock on a market of their own NAFTA, From C1 with which to fight back. supply this market would require U.S. pro- Another potential plus of NAFTA will be ducers to build a plant in Mexico. But since the displacement of Asian production by that Mexican market is too small at the mo- Mexican production. Over the years the As- ment to absorb all the production of a ian countries have drawn such activities as world-class-size plant, and because of Méx- television production, semiconductor assem- ican requirements that producers export bly and the sewing of apparel out of the Unit- large percentages of their production, the ed States. In the past month, I have spoken logical way for U.S. automakers to meet to officials of several U.S. companies who say demand in Mexico at present is to build they may move some of this activity back plants there and send the excess production from Asia to Mexico. Zenith has already an- to the U.S. market where tariffs on autos nounced a move of television set production are only 2.5 percent. from Taiwan to Mexico and some semicon- NAFTA would change the calculations of ductor makers are considering similar shifts a U.S. automaker because it makes export- from Southeast Asia. The reason: Control, ing from the United States to Mexico a real servicing and quick response are easier when possibility. Under NAFTA, a U.S. producer the plant is an hour away than when it is 21 would probably not build a plant in Mexico, hours and 14 time zones away. And factories but export minivans from the United States in Mexico are much more likely to use U.S. instead. This would require less investment parts, service personnel, designers and en- than a new plant in Mexico and would in- gineers than factories in Southeast Asia-a crease the economies of scale at U.S. fac- plus for Americans. tories. It would also avoid the need for hir- ing and training a whole new work force in A final potential benefit of NAFTA will Mexico. be tied to the structure of new invest- ment in Mexico. It is here that I and T he truth is that as far as imports from many other observers have had our greatest Mexico are concerned, we already concerns. If new investment in Mexico were have free trade. NAFTA will only to be largely Japanese or European, the make it more of a two-way proposition-as equipment going into the new plants, the corporate behavior is already demonstrat- construction companies building them, the ing. Raychem, a rapidly growing U.S. semi- parts and the intermediate materials used for conductor and electronics firm, is moving production would probably come from Asia or three plants from Mexico back to the Unit- Europe as well. Thus, Mexico would be ed States, and General Motors is likewise turned into a foreign export platform aimed moving production that until now had to be at the United States. The initial Bush admin- done in Mexico back to more efficient fa- istration negotiating strategy would have cilities north of the border. placed few conditions on investors in Mexico, Beyond this, NAFTA will create an im- and there was a real danger of this scenario mediate jump in U.S. exports to Mexico to becoming reality. meet the demand for U.S. goods that has In a 1991 study of possible outcomes, the long been pent-up by Mexican barriers. And Economic Strategy Institute estimated that even NAFTA opponents agree that because this foreign dominated export-platform sce- U.S. barriers are already so low, there will nario could result in substantial long-term be no reciprocal surge of exports from Mex- U.S. job loss. But we found that if investors in ico. Mexico are largely American, and the parts, NAFTA opponents sometimes argue that capital equipment and engineering are sup- à poor country like Mexico cannot afford to plied from the United States, long-term as buy very much from the United States. Yet, well as short-term net U.S. job gains would although half of Mexico's 80-million popu- result. We thus recommended crafting lation does indeed live in poverty, one-quar- NAFTA to ensure that new investors in ter to one-third of Mexicans have relatively Mexico would continue to obtain parts, high incomes, creating a market nearly the equipment, and other supplies and services size of Canada's for U.S. goods. Mexicans largely from the United States. already buy more per capita from the Unit- As it now stands, NAFTA includes many of ed States than Japanese or Europeans. We these measures. For example, steel will not should not forget that Japan is getting rich qualify for duty-free treatment under in part by running trade surpluses with the NAFTA unless it is melted and poured in small, developing countries in Asia with av- North America. Autos will not qualify unless erage income levels far below its own. 62.5 percent of their parts and components Because Mexico's barriers will only be are made in North America. Textiles will not reduced for U.S. and Canadian producers and qualify unless they are made from North not for Asian or European suppliers, most of American fiber and yarn. Television sets will the benefits of the larger market will go to not qualify unless the picture tube is made in 01 U.S. companies. Japanese companies have North America, and so forth. These mea- S long benefitted from having a lock on the sures will tend to lock in the present situation emerging markets of Asia. NAFTA will give in which over 70 percent of Mexico's imports the rest of Latin America are engaged in an historic realignment away from dictatorship and state intervention in the economy toward democracy and the free market. They are asking for our help. It is not in our interest to have an impoverished and embittered nation with a rapidly growing population on our southern border. If the Israelis can shake hands with the PLO, surely the United States can take the outstretched hand of Mexico that, after all, has been more sinned against than sinning in the history of our mutual re- lations. If NAFTA is to pass, the White House and big business will have to do much more than they have done to date. Tariffs will remain higher on the Mexican than on the U.S. side of the border for several years after NAFTA's enactment even in industries such as glass, steel and chemicals in which Mex- ican competitors are already world-class pro- ducers. Moreover, Mexican industrial de- crees and re-export requirements will be phased out slowly, thus damaging the poten- tial for U.S. exports for several years after ratification. The agreement permits accel- eration of the removal of trade barriers, and the Clinton administration ought to insist on it in key industries. At the same time, it should be made clear to Mexico that U.S. implementation of the deal will be contingent on rapid democratiza- tion in Mexico and particularly on guarantees for the rights of labor to organize and bargain collectively. Finally, American business, which stands to gain much from NAFTA, must assert some leadership. So far the airwaves have been dominated by opponents offering sim- plistic and misleading aphorisms about what business will and won't do. Where are the captains of industry at the Business Round BY JANUSZ KAPUSTA/INX Table, the National Association of Manufac- come from the United States. Thus as Mex- to move, Mexico is preferable to Asia as a turers and the Chamber of Commerce? They ico's industry expands, it should provide a destination. must get on "Larry King" and "Meet the continuously growing market for U.S. goods The second fallacy is the notion that com- Press" too. And when they do, they should as well. panies make investment decisions primarily recognize that some of the opposition to Beyond this there is the potential for the on the basis of labor costs. The truth is that it NAFTA is based not on the exact terms of United States to do in Mexico what Japan has is overall costs, not labor costs, that deter- the treaty but on a more amorphous but un- done in Thailand. There, Japanese companies mine investment locations. BMW recently derstandable feeling among American work- have invested and assembled components made a major decision to locate its first plant ers that neither big government nor big busi- shipped from Japan into products for export outside of Germany. It did not choose low- ness has been vigilant enough in defending to the world. Japan thereby runs a trade sur- labor-cost Mexico. Rather, it chose South and advancing their interests. plus with Thailand, while both their produc- Carolina. The reason is that despite Mexico's When industry leaders campaign for tion and exports increase. Under NAFTA, cheap labor, according to the Office of Tech- NAFTA, they should be prepared to talk U.S. firms should be able to do the same in nology Assessment, it costs only $8,777 to straight and to make some commitments to build a car in the United States versus Mexico, turning Mexico into the same kind of $9,180 in Mexico. Mexico's high shipping, the American public. A formal pledge, like export platform that Thailand provides to parts and inventory costs more than offset its the Sullivan Principles that guided business in Japan. low labor costs. Thus it is unlikely that there South Africa, might be appropriate. Such t is important to correct two major fal- will be a major emigration of U.S. manufac- principles might include a pledge to pay the I lacies that have arisen in the NAFTA de- turing to Mexico. More likely, and much U.S. minimum wage at Mexican operations; more desirable, is a combination of Mexican to provide for reassignment and retraining of bate. The first is the notion that the and U.S. operations to make both more com- any displaced workers; and to maintain a choice is between keeping jobs in the United petitive with Asian and European enter- company-wide trade surplus with Mexico. States or moving them to Mexico. In fact, in prises. Such commitments would go a long way to many instances jobs have already moved or Beyond the economic considerations, there calm the fear of losing more American jobs. will move to Asia if they don't go to Mexico. are fundamental reasons of national security It is clear that this fear must be counteracted For the reason noted above, if jobs are going for going ahead with NAFTA. Mexico and if NAFTA is to have a chance of passage. NAFTA TIMETABLE 17 Target date for NAFTA vote: November 23- Introduction of unamendable Fast-Track bill: November 1 Schedule for Non-Markups and Non Conferences: House Ways and Means: Walk-thru October 13 Non-Markup October 19-21 Senate Finance: Walk-thru October 14 Non-Markup October 20-22 Ways and Means/Finance Non-Conference: October 26-28 Other Committees: House Agriculture Banking Energy and Commerce Foreign Affairs Gov. Ops. Judiciary Natural Resources Appropriations ( possibly) Senate Agriculture Commerce Environment Foreign Relations Gov. Affairs Judiciary Remarks of Senator Paul Simon On His Support For The North American Free Trade Agreement Brookings Institution Auditorium Washington, D.C. October 20, 1993 [EMBARGOED until delivered at 12:15 p.m. E.D.T.] The proposal for a North American Free Trade agreement has evoked a greater barrage of surveys and analyses than any issue I can recall in my eighteen years in Congress, though I am sure the health care proposal will eventually surpass it. People whose judgment I trust draw directly contradictory conclusions. The issue inspires fear on the part of many and hope for others. My study of the NAFTA agreement began skeptically. I voted against the fast track authority passed two years ago, fearful that the administration then in power would not adequately protect the interests of our nation's working men and women. Three members of my staff who have primarily worked on this knew that I would spend the past weekend pounding on my old manual typewriter, formulating a position. I asked them where they felt the merits of this issue rest, and all three said it would be good for the nation. But all three advised me that politically the advantage is on the side of opposition. That seems to me an accurate summary of where we are. And if that is correct, those of us in the Senate who believe NAFTA will be good for the United States need to provide leadership so that our colleagues in the House who are wavering know that they are not alone. Political prudence for Senators requires silence. Political leadership requires a stand. Illinois is an economic microcosm of the nation. By studying its impact in Illinois, I have come to believe that NAFTA will strengthen the nation's economy. I have concluded that NAFTA's overall benefits to this generation and to future generations make this a fight worth spending political capital to win. Here is how I arrived at my position. First, the unspoken premise of some opponents is clearly that there are only so many riches to spread around this region of the world, and if we permit our neighbors to the south to have more, we will have less. It is the same false assumption that those who wrote about population two centuries ago had: There are only so many goods to be divided, and if you increase the population, gradually everyone will become poorer. The average person in the world today has a much higher standard of living than in those days, and our population has grown tenfold. After World War II, [MORE] the United States was by far the wealthiest nation, and Western Europe and Japan were miserably poor. I can remember staying at a small hotel in Spain where, for one American dollar, I received my room and three meals, including steak for dinner. Today the average American income is two and one-half times greater than it was then, after adjusting for inflation, and many of our friends in Western Europe now have average wages higher than ours. We have moved ahead economically and so have they. Clearly the economic prosperity of Western Europe did not come at the expense of the United States. I start, then, from a different premise than some who oppose the agreement. I recognize that both Mexico and the United States can benefit, but reciprocal gains are not automatic. If they were, we would not between us have the greatest disparity in the standard of living of any two neighboring nations. There are several questions that need to be answered: What will be the job impact of such an agreement on the United States? The short-term impact is clear. It will create jobs in the United States and raise the standard of living of most people in both nations slightly. With an average Mexican tariff on U.S. goods of between ten and twelve percent, and an average U.S. tariff on Mexican goods of four percent, when the tariffs on both sides are removed, the United States is the larger immediate job beneficiary. On auto parts, for example, the U.S. has a tariff of less than one-half of one percent, but Mexico has a tariff that averages thirteen percent. When you drop both tariffs, Mexico gains with cheaper auto parts, and the United States benefits in jobs. Even though Mexican tariffs are higher than ours, in 1992, we had a trade surplus with Mexico of $5.4 billion, the largest trade surplus we have with any nation other than the Netherlands. Our primary trade deficits are not with low-wage countries but with high-wage trading partners, Japan being the number one example. As Secretary of Labor Robert Reich has written, "if low wages were the key to where manufacturers locate, Bangladesh and Haiti would become the manufacturing capitals of the world." George Fisher of Motorola speaks for many of today's and tomorrow's industries when he says, "The days of chasing low-cost labor are over." Of the ten nations with whom we have the largest trade deficits, our highest deficit with Japan is more than the next seven nations combined, and when the three oil-exporting countries are eliminated from the ten big deficit nations, of the remaining seven, five are high-wage nations, and two are low-wage countries." The myth that NAFTA will result in a huge transfer of plants to Mexico is exactly that: a myth. There are economic advantages for that transfer now that will not be there after NAFTA is approved. There will be U.S. investments in infrastructure there -- in telephones, for example -- that will create jobs in Mexico, but should not result in job loss here. And generally, U.S. companies -- like all companies -- invest primarily where there are skilled workers, not where there are low wages. Three-fourths of our foreign investment is in developed countries, primarily Canada and Europe, where wages are often higher than ours. The NAFTA agreement may temporarily stem the flow of some plants to Mexico. [MORE] Gatorade, made by an Illinois corporation, Quaker Oats, has major sales in Mexico, but Mexico has an eighteen percent tariff on Gatorade made in the United States. If the NAFTA agreement is approved, the Gatorade plant will remain in the United States. If it is not approved, they will build a plant in Mexico. General Motors faces a similar decision. Our tariff on Mexican-made cars is 2.2 percent. Their tariff on our cars is twenty percent. The American Automobile Manufacturers Association says that if Congress approves NAFTA, that will boost exports to Mexico of U.S.-built cars and parts by $1 billion the first year, increasing U.S. jobs by 15,000. Only one of sixteen Mexicans owns a car. As their standard of living rises in coming years, this will be a huge market for us. There are those who argue that Mexican citizens are too poor to afford any significant amount of U.S. goods, that NAFTA will open a market that does not exist. The facts are that of Mexico's 90 million people, many are poor, but with its growing middle class, Mexico is buying seventy percent of their imports from the United States. As a nation, Mexico purchases more U.S. goods than any of our trading partners in Europe or Japan. Caterpillar says signing the agreement will mean 1,200 more jobs in Illinois. If NAFTA is approved, the ten to twenty percent Mexican tariffs on Caterpillar products will be dropped but not on Caterpillar's principal competitor in Japan, with clear benefits to our country. A sample of my mail from other Illinois companies illustrates the potential: L.R. Gross of Nalco Chemical in Naperville writes: "NAFTA will help Nalco create high-skill jobs in the area of production, distribution, sales, marketing and research. Every additional $1,000,000 in sales creates four to five new Nalco jobs. The majority of these jobs will be in the United States." Lauren S. Williams of the NutraSweet Company of Deerfield says: "NAFTA will have significant positive benefits for the NutraSweet Company We have no plans to manufacture our products in Mexico when NAFTA is implemented. Our ingredients are imported into Mexico and incorporated into products by local food manufacturers. And we see great potential for growth in this market. For example, while Mexico has per capita soft drink consumption second only to the United States, the diet portion of the market is only about two percent, compared to almost thirty percent in the U.S." John Kennedy of James Electronics in Chicago: "NAFTA will have no effect on a manufacturer's decision on opening plants in Mexico. We can do it today with or without the treaty. I established a sister plant in Mexico in 1989 125 miles south of the border. It has not taken jobs from Chicago, but has added over 100 jobs here." John Bryan of Sara Lee, based in Chicago: NAFTA will "create additional higher-paying jobs in U.S.- based yarn and textile operations." Richard White of Flexible Steel Lacing in Downers Grove: "The elimination of Mexican tariff barriers will greatly improve our access to the fastest growing market in North America. Our sales in Mexico have grown 60 percent since 1992, and with NAFTA could triple between 1991 and 1995. 95 percent of Flexco products sold in Mexico are made in the U.S. Additional unit sales volume to Mexico will help to lower our overall operating costs and enable further employment growth in Downers Grove, as well as providing us a stronger competitive position in other world markets." Charles T. Wegner IV of Jel Sert in West Chicago says that they [MORE] "have achieved only a modest presence in Mexico The economic and regulatory unpredictability make it imprudent to commit to any significant or long-term activity." But he writes that if NAFTA is approved, they expect a major effort in Mexico and additional jobs in our country. Sundstrand of Rockford has 2,900 Illinois employees and a total of 11,000 employees. James F. Ricketts writes: "NAFTAwill have a positive impact upon employment levels both in the Sundstrand United States' facilities and in the joint venture operation in Mexico." John Thompson of IBM's Chicago office: "In 1992, IBM did approximately $1 billion worth of business in Mexico. This was a 53 percent growth rate over 1991 which is occurring in an environment of 10 percent to 20 percent tariffs on those exports. With the elimination of Tariffs under NAFTA, IBM will have an even greater opportunity for exports, which translates into stronger demand for IBM's U.S. manufacturing facilities." Stuart Scheyer of the Decorel Company in Mundelein, the world's largest manufacturer of picture frames, writes: Werecently made a significant investment in Mexico, a 60,000-foot factory in Durango, Mexico with 200 employees. The 200 jobs that we have in Mexico are in addition to an increase in workers that we have in the Chicago area. We have not transferred a single job from the United States to Mexico." He notes that he is moving jobs from Asia to Mexico and the United States and adds: "A Mexican worker purchases U.S. products. A Far East worker does not." Illinois is the nation's leading candy manufacturing state. The National Confectioners Association estimates that the elimination of the twenty percent candy tariff by Mexico will create 750 additional jobs in Illinois. Kent Kleinschmidt of the Illinois Corngrowers expects an increase of twenty cents per bushel in the price of corn because of NAFTA and a savings to taxpayers of $1.2 billion in farm subsidies. All agriculture, with the exception of fruit and vegetable farming, is expected to benefit. Other industries that will benefit from NAFTA include machine tools and auto parts, major factors in our nation and in my state. Illinois exports to Mexico increased 384 percent between 1987 and 1992. In terms of short-term job creation, NAFTA is a plus, but some industries and people will be hurt, and we must not ignore that reality. Much of the American middle class is in agony over the economic changes and dislocations of recent years. Families have seen their economic security slip, and many have become bitter and cynical toward a government that has seemed to do nothing to come to their aid. NAFTA will not address the economic pain of the middle class in a meaningful way. This is not a reason to oppose NAFTA; but it places a moral obligation on NAFTA's supporters to develop a coherent plan and policy to restore economic opportunity and security. In the medium-term, Mexico will experience more job growth than the United States as a result of the NAFTA agreement. As it becomes clear under NAFTA that there is an increasingly stable political and economic situation in Mexico, there will be more Mexican money invested in Mexico, and more money will be invested by Asian, Western European and U.S. interests. There will be some shifting of plants, particularly from Asia, to Mexico. Zenith has already announced that it will shift some television production from Taiwan to Mexico. As NAFTA increases the standard of [MORE] living for people in the large U.S.-Canada-Mexico market, corporations around the world will want to sell in this market. The U.S. and Canada now have an edge over Mexico in skilled workers, but that advantage is likely to diminish over the coming years as Mexico stresses education. The United States has significant transportation advantages that will bring many of these new businesses to us, but Mexico is likely to be experiencing greater growth a decade from now, both in numbers of jobs and in its standard of living. As the General Accounting Office report accurately summarizes: "Economic researchers in general agree that NAFTA would bring a small overall economic benefit to the U.S. and Canadian economies, and a larger benefit to the Mexican economy." Under NAFTA, what helps Mexico in the medium-term ultimately helps the U.S. Long-term -- thirty years from now -- all three nations are likely to experience significant growth if all three stress developing a more skilled work force and put their fiscal houses in order. The standard of living in Mexico is not likely to be as high as we have in the United States, but the gap in the quality of life will have diminished markedly. That will make Mexico a significantly larger purchaser of U.S. products. That means jobs. The closest comparison to the NAFTA agreement that might provide insights is the affiliation of Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece with the European Community four poorer nations joining a wealthier central body. The average growth rate of the four exceeded the growth rate of the other nations of the European Community by 3.7 percent to 2.8 percent. The affiliation of the four nations did not harm the central body. However, it is easy to exaggerate on both sides -- the impact of NAFTA. It will have an impact that is generally positive, but it is not a patent-medicine cure-all for what ails us. The International Trade Commission estimates that by the end of the first year of NAFTA, there will be a net increase of 171,000 jobs in the United States, not a huge number in a nation of 240 million people. That would reduce our unemployment rate less than two-tenths of one percent. One important fact should be remembered: Whether NAFTA is approved or not, if we don't improve the skills of our work force and pay attention to the nation's fiscal problems, we will suffer a continued gradual decline in our standard of living. If we do a better job of preparing our work force and have the courage to face our fiscal deficit, we will experience an increase in our quality of life. No elixir of NAFTA or anything else is a substitute for addressing our education and fiscal problems. What about illegal immigration? Mexico today has a population of approximately ninety million people. Despite a declining birth rate, eventually, Mexico will achieve a total population of more than 200 million. Nothing speeds a decline in a national birth rate as much as an increase in the standard of living. Lifting the quality of life through NAFTA, therefore, will relieve population pressures and lessen the expected growth of illegal immigration. And the growth in job opportunities and wages reduces the attraction of employment in the north. The commission to look at illegal immigration, established by Congress in [MORE] 1986, urged a free trade agreement between the United States and Mexico, calling it "the single most important long-term remedy to the problem." Few Mexicans come into the United States illegally because they like our cultural life; they come because they have little opportunity to earn a decent living in the country of their birth. NAFTA will not solve the illegal immigration problem, but it will assist in its solution. Are there U.S. foreign policy considerations in this vote? The United States has been fortunate to be bordered by two oceans, by a nation to the north we generally do not regard as a foreign nation, and a nation to the south that we have largely ignored. To continue down that path of indifference increasingly will be as difficult as it is wrong. A rebuff to NAFTA would hurt us in Mexico and in all of Latin America. Our historic cold shoulder to Mexico has been a burden to Mexico but will be a burden to us if it is continued. Former Speaker Jim Wright of Texas has written: "Not in the past 75 years has Mexico's elected leadership been SO staunchly and outspokenly pro-U.S." However if NAFTA is turned down, Mexico is not likely to simply smile and docilely accept our position. If we muff this opportunity, Mexico is likely to enter into a free trade agreement with Japan or some other major economic entity. That would not be good for the United States and not as good for Mexico as a trade agreement with us, but we should be aware that you can wound the pride of a nation only so many times before it looks for other friends. If Henry Kissinger is correct that this nation "has never had a neighbor of the importance Mexico will acquire in the next century," we should weigh NAFTA carefully, recognizing that approving it will help Mexico achieve greater stability in both politics. and economics. That is in our self-interest. What about the environmental factors? Environmental groups are split on this. Improvement would come in the border area; right now that is a mess. NAFTA would cause a significant increase in the use of natural gas in Mexico, reducing the emission of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide. How effectively and strictly Mexico would enforce the environmental side agreement is not clear, though it is a good enough gamble that the National Wildlife Federation, the World Wildlife Fund, the Nature Conservancy, the Audubon Society, the Environmental Defense Fund, the Natural Resources Defense Council and Defenders of Wildlife have all endorsed NAFTA. What is indisputable historically is that as democracies have increased their living standards, they have become more sensitive to environmental factors, and NAFTA will increase the standard of living in Mexico. What about those working men and women and businesses who will be hurt by NAFTA? It is both morally right and smart policy to provide assistance to those harmed by NAFTA. Assistance to businesses should be planned through loans that are not available through conventional credit sources. The Small Business Administration can help, though most businesses should find assistance from the traditional thrift institutions. [MORE] The problem of working men and women is more complex. It is a problem with or without NAFTA. Economic dislocations -- and the absence of any serious policy response from the federal government -- have created an enormous need for a program of economic relief and revitalization. This is complicated by an increasing bitterness and cynicism toward government that has seemed to sit idly by while our living standard has declined. Such a program must include a serious retraining program for dislocated workers. Our economy is too dynamic, too globally linked for us to afford not to provide life-long training and retraining for our workers. That will only work if there are jobs waiting for those trained. We need to invest more in technologies; expand and accelerate improvements in our highways, water and sewer systems; promote high-speed rail and the information superhighway, and insist that our trading partners expand access to their markets for our products. We also must get our fiscal house in order: stop running huge deficits, and reduce the growth in our national debt, lowering the cost of capital and lifting our overall economy. We need to demonstrate to middle-class Americans that government is on their side. But this problem goes beyond just the middle class. More than one-fifth of the children of this nation now live in poverty, and the number is growing. No other Western industrialized country has such a miserable record. This is not the result of an act of God but the result of flawed policy. We have increasingly segregated the nation economically, and as fewer and fewer of the poor are our neighbors, it is easier and easier to ignore them. And our system of financing election to public office makes political leaders more and more responsive to the economically powerful and less and less responsive to our poorer citizens. NAFTA gives us an opportunity to reexamine our policies. President Clinton says he wants welfare reform. So should we all. But there is no short-term, inexpensive way of achieving genuine reform. What we need is a federal jobs program similar to the old WPA. Anyone out of work five weeks or longer should have an opportunity to work on local projects four days a week at the minimum wage, and the fifth day, he or she should be trying to find a job in the private sector. At the current minimum wage, four days a week would mean $535 a month -- not a great deal of money -- but the average family on welfare in Illinois receives $367 a month; in Mississippi, $122 a month. Then, screen people as they come into the program, and if they cannot read and write, get them help; if they have no high school equivalency, enroll them where they can receive assistance; if they have no marketable skills, get them into a community college or a training program that gives them a marketable skill. We have a choice of paying people for doing nothing or for doing something, and we have made the wrong choice, both for them and for our society. We need to invest in our people. In every community of unemployed, we have large unmet needs. Why not convert the liability of unemployment into a great national asset as the nation did almost six decades ago? Such a program would have one additional, huge advantage over the present welfare [MORE] 12/09/93 11:01 U.S.T.R 002/012 AMUNITED GRINE ap THE UNITED ED THE OF YES THE NAFTA Expanding U.S. Exports, Jobs and Growth Clinton Administration Statement on the North American Free Trade Agreement "In the face of all the pressures to do the reverse, we must compete, not retreat. " President Clinton, February 26, 1993 12/09/93 11:02 U.S.T.R 003/012 Administration Statement on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) What Does NAFTA Mean? It Means: Harnessing a changing global economy for the benefit of American workers. 200,000 new higher-paying, export-related jobs for Americans. A level playing field for U.S. exporters. Enhanced access to Mexico, a growing market of 90 million consumers. Creation of the biggest market in the world. Better environmental protection. A plan to expand U.S. trade supported by both President Clinton and President Bush. Effective U.S. leadership to meet the requirements of the post-Cold War world. NAFTA-The North American Free Trade Agreement It's Good For America July, 1993 12/09/93 11:03 U.S.T.R 004/012 The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): Expanding Exports, Jobs and Growth Critics of NAFTA use scare tactics to assert that NAFTA "The truth of our age is this-and must be this: will put Americans out of work. The truth is quite the Open and competitive commerce will enrich us as opposite: a nation. And so I say to you in the face of all NAFTA will spur further job gains and push jobs the pressures to do the reverse, we must compete, related to exports to Mexico toward the 1 million not retreat." mark. -President Clinton, Tobruary 26. 1993 Defeating NAFTA could cost hundreds of thou- sands of such jobs. "By building together the largest free trading region in the world, Mexico, the United States and The facts about NAFTA: Canada are working to ensure that the future will NAFTA will create the biggest market in the world bring increased prosperity, trade, and new jobs -right at our doorstep: 2 $6.5 trillion market with for the citizens of each of our countries." 370 million people. President Bush, July 15, 1992 NAFTA will level a playing field that remains- despite recent Mexican market openings-substan- rially tilted in Mexico's favor. Mexico's tariff barriers to U.S. goods are still 2.5 times greater than our E very generation of Americans has embraced the own. All tariffs will be phased out under NAFTA. challenge of its times. None has shrunk from the task. Our biggest challenge today is economic-- NAFTA will expand benefits the United States has to channel a changing international economy to our enjoyed since Mexico began to open its markets in benefit. 1986. U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico have risen by 228% since 1986, reaching $40.6 billion in The Clinton Administration is committed to rebuilding 1992. the US economy from the ground up. We must pre- pare our entire work force to compete in the global U.S. jobs supported by these merchandise exports economy and make sure that nobody gets left behind rose from 274,000 in 1986 to an estimated 700,000 in the process. We look at trade-and every other in 1992-and these jobs are in all 50 states. issue-from the viewpoint of what is best for ordinary (Merchandise exports to Canada support another Americans who work hard, play by the rules, and want 1.5 million U.S. jobs.) a chance to get ahead. The key building blocks are NAFTA will create an estimated 200,000 additional economic growth and jobs. high-wage jobs related to exports to Mexico by The North American Free Trade Agreement 1995. (NAFTA) is a part of this forward-looking strategy. NAFTA will increase opportunities for American This Administration supports the NAFTA with sup- firms to sell to Mexico. Those opportunities are plemental agreements because it will create high- especially important for small and medium-size wage U.S. jobs, boost U.S. growth, and expand the base from which U.S. firms and workers can com- businesses that cannot readily overcome high Mexican border barriers. pete in a dynamic global economy. 3 12/09/93 11:04 U.S.T.R 1 005/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT Mexico is already our second largest market for Mexico's average tariff against U.S. exports is cur- manufactured exports-beating even the more rently 2.5 times higher than the equivalent U.S. Lar- affiuent Japan. NAFTA will further increase oppor- iff against imports from Mexico. (See Chart 1.) tunities for U.S. manufactured exports in Mexico. By contrast, over 50% of our imports from Mexico NAFTA will help us promote sustainable develop- already enter duty free. Our average tariff on ment in North America-economic growth with imports from Mexico is only 4%. cnhanced environmental protection. Complex Mexican domestic licensing requirements NAFTA will gradually ease many of the pressures further impede imports into Mexico from the in Mexico that currently contribute to illegal immi- United States. gration across our border. Mexico currently has no obligation to continue recent market-opening moves on which thousands L Creating the Biggest Market in the World of U.S. jobs already depend. NAFTA will not only With NAFIA, the United States, Canada and Mexico lock in current access but expand that access will create the biggest market in the world-a NAFTA will eliminate especially burdensome tariffs combined economy of $6.5 trillion and 370 mil- and non-tariff barriers in 2 number of key sectors lion people where the United States is competitive vis-a-vis Our competitors are expanding their markets in Mexico-such 2S autos and agriculture. Europe and Asia. NAFTA is our opportunity to NAFTA will require relatively Little change on our respond and compete. part-while requiring Mexico to sweep away By increasing our export opportunities, NAFTA will decades of protectionism and overregulation: enable us to take advantage of U.S. economic Half of all U.S. exports to Mexico will bc cligible strengths and remain the world's biggest and best for zero Mexican tariffs when NAFTA takes effect exporter. on January 1, 1994. U.S. exports eligible for tariff-free entry into Mexico IL Levelling the Playing Field include some of our most competitive products: Mexico's trade barriers are now much higher than - Semiconductors and computers ours. NAFTA will level a playing field now tilted - Machine tools heavily in Mexico's favor: - Aerospace equipment - Telecommunications equipment CHART 1 Mexico's Average Tariff Barriers Against U.S. Exports - Electronic equipment are 2.5 Times Higher than Equivalent U.S. Tariff - Medical devices Barriers Against Imports from Mexico Within the first five years after NAFTA is imple- mented, two-thirds of U.S. industrial exports will Mexico DUE enter Mexico duty-tree. Under the NAFTA, Mexico will open its market sig nificantly to U.S. manufactured exports. For exam- ple, for automotive parts, Mexico will eliminate U.S. 4% 75% of its duties over five years and phase out the rest over ten years. NAFTA also will require Mexico to open its market to U.S. service exports (U.S. service exports to 4 12/09/93 11:04 U.S.T.R 006/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT Mexico were $8.9 billion in 1992). This will benefit such industries as enhanced telecommunications CHART 2 services, insurance, banking, accounting, and U.S. Employment Supported advertising. by Merchandise Exports w Mexico 1000 Under NAFTA, our access to Canada's service mar 300 With NAFIA ket also will be more open than it is under the 800 existing U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement. 700 Removing Mexican restrictions against U.S. Thousand Jobs 600 Widness exports means that U.S. companies no longer will 500 NAFTA have to invest in Mexico or manufacture in 400 Mexico to supply the Mexican market. 300 200 NAFTA will eliminate Mexican requirements that force 100 our companies in Mexico to: 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991* 1992° 1993 1991 1995 Purchase Mexican goods instead of U.S.-made "Estimated equipment and components; Export their production, usually to the United CHART 3 States, instead of selling directly into the Mexican market; and U.S. Jobs Supported by Exports to Mexico Pay More Than Other U.S. Jobs Produce in Mexico to sell in Mexico. For example, 11.20 11.01 11.32 the current Auto Decree has the effect of barring 10.83 10-02 automotive imports from the United States through 9.43 a complex series of investment requirements that will be phased out under NAFTA. III. Creating Higher-Wage U.S. Jobs Average Houry Wager (f/br.) A strong consensus of the economic studies that have looked at the labor effects of NAFTA have found it will AB Industries Manufacturing Services result in increased jobs or increased real wages-or both. All U.S. private sector, non-agricultural employment = Employment supported by merchandise exports to Mexico Our experience confirms the findings of these studies Since Mexico began to open up its economy and pre- Defeating NAFTA could cause a sharp drop in pare for NAFTA, the number of American workers pro exports to Mexico and thus the loss of hundreds ducing merchandise exports to Mexico has risen from of thousands of U.S. jobs: 274,000 in 1986 to an estimated 700,000 last year. (See Without NAFTA, we anticipate a reduction in U.S. Chart 2) exports and related jobs. Mexico could suffer capi- With NAFTA we anticipate 200,000 MORE export- tal flight, disinvestment, and a loss of confidence related jobs by 1995. in its economy. A less healthy Mexico would be Wages of U.S. workers in jobs related to exports to less able to afford imports produced in the United Statcs. Mexico are 12% HIGHER than the national aver- age (See Chart 3.) The precise impact is difficult to measure. However, in the first two years of the Mexico debt NAFTA will further open the Mexican economy so that crisis (1981-1983), U.S. exports to Mexico dropped we can push employment related to exports to Mexico toward the 1 million mark. by almost half. 5 12/09/93 11:05 U.S.T.R 5 007/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT If even a quarter of U.S. exports to Mexico were The Wage Issue lost by 1995, U.S. export-related jobs would fall The idea that U.S. workers can't compete with low- from the current level of 700,000 to 500,000 a loss wage Mexican workers is a myth. If companies of 200,000 high-wage jobs (and a sharp contrast decided where to locate based solely on wages, invest- with the 900,000 projected jobs with NAFTA). ment would flock to countries much poorer than Protecting and Assisting U.S. Workers Mexico. Haiti and Bangladesh would be job and man- ufacturing powerhouses. That hasn't happened. NAFTA not only will create a large number of new jobs in export industries, but also will ensure that our U.S. workers earn high wages because we are the most import-sensitive industries have substantial room for productive workers in the world. Americans can meet adjustment. the challenge of international competition. NAFTA will enhance U.S. productivity and increase U.S. wages. NAFTA provides for transition periods of up to 15 years in eliminating tariffs and other barriers on the Mexico currently imposes no barriers on foreign most sensitive U.S. product sectors, such as house- investors who wish to set up production in Mexico for hold glassware, footwear, and some fruits and veg- export. Mexico goes even further in encouraging for- etables. eign investment to service the domestic market by restricting access through imports. NAFTA will elimi- For other products, U.S. tariffs will be phased out nate such incentives to foreign investors. over 10 years or less. Only tariffs that are already very low will be eliminated immediately after the Despite the openness of the U.S. market and ability of agreement enters into force. U.S. and other foreign investors to set up shop in Mexico now, the United States is not being swamped This gradual removal of barriers will provide com- with imports made by low-paid Mexican workers: panies and workers time to respond to changing competitive conditions. If the United States were going to be flooded with such imports, it already would have happened. NAFTA contains special rules allowing a temporary reinstatement of U.S. tariffs or other measures to In fact the reverse is true: U.S. exports to Mexico protect U.S. workers and farmers in the case of have increased far more than U.S. imports from injury from a sudden surge in imports from Mexico Mexico. or Canada. President Clinton has directed U.S. The United States' largest bilateral surplus in manu- trade negotiators to seek a supplemental agree- factured products is with Mexico. ment to be sure this provision is used effectively. Immigration The United States will maintain domestic laws pro- viding for penalties on dumped or subsidized To the extent that our workers compete with low- imports that injure U.S. industry. paid Mexicans, it is as much through undocu- mented immigration as trade. This pattern threatens Finally, NAFTA includes strict rules of origin that low-paid, low-skill U.S. workers. will prevent products of non-NAFTA countries from receiving preferential treatment under NAFTA. The combination of domestic reforms and NAFTA- related growth in Mexico will keep more Mexicans Although NAFTA's net effect on U.S. jobs will be posi- at home. tive, it is likely also to lead to some job displacement. For those workers who may face job loss, the Clinton It is likely that a reduction in immigration will Administration is committed to having a strong. fully increase the real wages of low-skilled urban and funded worker adjustment program to assist the rural workers in the United States. transition to new market realities. 'n addition, the United States, Canada, and Mexico will establish a North American Commission on Labor. (See section VI.) 6 12/09/93 11:06 U.S.T.R 008/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT IV. Increasing Opportunities to Export to Mexican consumers prefer U.S. goods: Mexico 70 cents of every dollar that Mexico spends on for- cign products is spent on U.S. goods. Given its NAFTA will "lock in" and expand trade gains location, this preference is likely to continue. achieved to date. Since Mexico began to open up its economy in 1986: Mexico purchases more imports per person from the United States than does the more affluent U.S. exports to Mexico have expanded enormous- European Community countries and Japan. For ly, rising from $12.4 billion in 1986 to $28 billion in example, last year, each Mexican, on the avcrage, 1990 and a whopping $40.6 billion in 1992. purchased more than $450 worth of U.S.-made The U.S. trade balance with Mexico has shifted products. By contrast, the average Japanese spent from a $5.7 billion deficit in 1987 TO a $5.6 billion $385 on U.S. products, despite the fact that aver- SURPLUS in 1992. (See Chart 4.) age Japanese incomes are five times as high as average Mexican incomes. CHART 4 Key sectors benefitting from NAFTA include auto- U.S. Merchandise Trade with Mexico: motive, agriculture, financial services, textiles, and From Deficit to Surplus communications: 15 U.S. telecommunications exports jumped 50% in U.S. Paports 1991. Mexico is the industry's second largest export U.S. Imports Surplus market after Canada. 35 Detroit's Big 3 predict that their combined exports Illinon U.S. $ could rise from 1,000-plus to over 60,000 vehicles 25 NAFIA in NAFTA's first year alone. U.S. Deficit Negotiations Began Mexico was primarily a bulk commodity market for :5 U.S. agricultural exports prior to 1987. Now it is Mexico one of the United States' largest and fastest growing Joined GATT high-value markets. High-value products now 5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1957 account for almost 70% of all U.S. agricultural sales versus 40% in 1987. Mexico is important to the U.S. economy because it Small and Medium-Size Businesses is our: The significant expansion of the Mexican market Third largest export market and the fastest grow- will benefit small and medium-size businesses in ing major export market: particular. These companies usually lack the resources Since 1986, U.S. merchandise exports to to penetrate the thicket of Mexican trade barriers and Mexico have increased by 228% (to $40.6 regulatory restrictions. By lowering costs and dissolv- billion)-2.3 times faster than U.S. exports ing barriers, NAFTA will help smaller businesses to to the world. penetrate the Mexican market without having to invest in Mexico. Second largest market after Canada for manufac- tured exports (amounting to $34.5 billion in 1992). V. Enhancing Environmental Protection Third largest market for agricultural products (after Japan and Canada), reaching $3.7 billion in 1992 NAFTA and its supplemental agreements will help (a 242% increase since 1986). ensure that economic development takes place in a way that protects and improves the environment. 12/09/93 11:07 U.S.T.R 009/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT The NAFTA text itself takes 2 first step in recognizing The supplemental agreement on the environment will the relationship between trade and the environment: provide for effective enforcement, public access to judicial forums to enforce environmental laws, trans- It contains explicit endorsement by the three coun- parency in the development of environmental laws, tries of the principle of sustainable development and other improvements. and calls for the "upward harmonization" of stan- dards. Moreover, the United States, Canada, and Mexico will establish 2 North American Commission on the No existing Federal or state regulation to protect Environment to: health and safety will be jeopardized by NAFTA. In fact NAFTA rules allow the participating countries Foster public discussion of environmental con- (and their states and provinces) to enact tougher cerns; environmental standards. Strengthen domestic enforcement of national envi- If a dispute arises that has environmental implica- ronmental laws; tions, NAFTA provides for scientific boards to guide Promote an integrated North American approach panelists considering the dispute. to the environment; NAFTA gives precedence to the trade provisions of Provide a focal point to expand and strengthen certain international environmental agreements existing environmental Inidatives; and (including those on endangered species and the use of CFCs) in the event they conflict with Formally give environmental advice to trade repre- NAFTA's rules. sentatives from the three NAFTA countries. NAFTA allows countries to impose strict environ- In addition, the United States, Canada and Mexico will mental standards on investment and NAFTA coun- establish a North American Commission on Labor tries agree not to weaken environmental protection that will: to chract investment Foster discussion and better appreciation of worker rights and labor standards in each NAFTA country. VL Beyond NAFTA: Supplemental Encourage domestic enforcement of national labor Agreements on the Environment, Labor and laws; and Import Surges Promote the raising and strengthening of labor President Clinton supports NAFTA as part of a growth standards in North America. strategy for the United States but believes that NAFTA The supplemental agreements cannot resolve can be enhanced. That is why the Administration is overnight all environmental and labor problems. seeking supplemental agreements on import surges, But defeating NAFTA and the supplemental agree- the environment, and labor. These separate agreements ments would only aggravate these problems. will provide additional assurance that NAFTA-enhanced Never has the United States had a comparable growth will be sensitive to environmental and labor opportunity to promote improved environmental concerns. and labor conditions. If NAFTA and the supple- The agreement on import surges would establish a mental agreements are successfully concluded and tri-national committee to help ensure the effective use enacted, we will have an unparalleled opportunity of NAFTA'S provisions allowing temporary rellef in the with our neighbors to advance a broad agenda for event of injurious import surges. economic growth and environmental Improve- ment for our countries and all our people. The President envisages agreements that will create commissions on the environment and labor. The powers and functions of these commissions will help improve conditions for workers and the environment and will improve enforcement of national laws. 8 12/09/93 11:07 U.S.T.R 5 010/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT VIL NAFTA and American Leadership NAFTA's defeat would shock the Mexican econo- my, depress wages and living standards, reduce the In the post-Cold War world, American leadership will Mexican capacity to purchase U.S. products, and be measured in part by the creativity and aggressive- stimulate immigration. It could also create tensions ness of our trade policy. Bold, original, and forward- on a host of critical issues from illegal drugs to oil. looking, NAFTA is worthy of a world leader. NAFTA's defeat would also throw sand in the eyes In North America, division between foreign and of our allies throughout Central and South America, domestic matters narrows every day. American who are striving to open their markets and democ- communities are inevitably affected by what hap- ratize their societies. Anti-Americanism, protection- pens in Canada and Mexico. Their problems spill ism, and authoritarianism may well increase. A over the border to harm us-just as their success NAFTA defeat would be a major, self-inflicted set- adds to our welfare. back to American leadership By increasing the flows of commerce and culture and by forging new cross-border friendships Conclusion among labor and environmental organizations, the NAFTA will promote prosperity and democracy in NAFTA will create jobs and improve our competitive- neighboring Mexico. Americans who favor freedom ness. It. will create the largest, richest market in the and good government in Mexico should favor world. Mexico's strong and growing demand for U.S. NAFTA. products has created a $5.6 billion U.S. trade surplus. With a stronger Mexican economy and higher Mexican NAFTA has been negotiated by two Administrations. wages, demand for U.S. goods will continue to expand It stands as a testament to the ability of the United Increased access to the rapidly growing Mexican mar- States to design a bipartisan foreign policy craft- ket will create extraordinary new opportunities for U.S. ed to the requirements of the post-Cold War companies and workers. Taking advantage of these world. Its defeat would signal to the world that opportunities will lead to increased prosperity in the Washington is mired in inertia and gridlock. United States. NAFTA's defeat would raise serious questions about America's commitment to global leadership, NAFTA IS Good For America thereby undercutting our influence throughout the world. Questions and Answers about NAFTA Q. How can Mexico, a low-income country, be such a Q. Will NAFTA result in massive U.S. job losses to low- large market for U.S. exports? wage Mexican workers? A. Mexico now is our third-largest trading partner. A. No. NAFTA will increase jobs, productivity and Although Mexican per capita incomes are low rela- wages in the United States as well as in Mexico tive to incomes in the United States, Mexico is a and Canada. If lower wages were the only reason country of 90 million people (who prefer U.S. to that companies moved to other countries, Haiti and other foreign products) and a developing country Bangladesh would be economic powerhouses by with an improving economic outlook. On a per now. Other factors such as high worker productiv- capita basis, Mexico purchases more U.S. products ity in the United States and high non-wage costs than our trade partners in the European in Mexico (including transportation, infrastructure, Community and Japan. NAFTA will help the United and support service costs) make U.S. workers more States take further advantage of the growing competitive than their Mexican counterparts. Mexican market for U.S. exports. 9 12/09/93 11:08 U.S.T.R 5 011/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT Moreover, under NAFTA's rules of origin, only Q. Are the benefits of recent U.S. export expansion over- products that have substantial North American stated? IS most of this growth due to exports of parts materials will receive preferential treatment. With that are assembled in Mexico and then shipped back the free and fair trade and investment environment to the United States? created by NAFTA. workers in all three North American countries will be better able to succeed A. The bulk of U.S. exports to Mexico is for consump tion in the Mexican market and not for return to together with non-North American producers the U.S. Indeed, in 1992, U.S. exports of compo- Q. How many workers would need assistance because nent inputs for production sharing arrangements in of NAFTA? Mexico (i.e., Maquildoras) comprised an estimated 22% of all U.S. exports to Mexico, compared with A. NAFTA will create many more jobs in the U.S. than 32% in 1987. While incorporated into products are lost The number of positions that will be lost eventually exported back to the United States, these due to NAFTA is likely to be very small. American components still support U.S. jobs related to their workers are strongly competitive in world markets; production An estimated 83% of the growth in U.S. U.S. barriers to imports from Mexico are already exports to Mexico in the last five years was for ver:- low; and Mexico's productive capacity is very Mexican consumption, not re-export. sma relative to that of the United States and will -even with healthy growth-remain so for Q. IS the United States primarity exporting muchinery decades to come. and equipment that Mexico will use to create indus- Since NAFTA will be phased in over a fifteen year tries that could then lead an export assault on our markets? period, a substantial part of the position losses is likely to be absorbed by attrition through voluntary A. In percentage terms, capital goods have been the retirement or resignation. Certainly any job dis- slowest growing major export category to Mexico placement of working Americans by NAFTA will be in the last five years. Although still the largest com- barely perceptible relative to other changes in the ponent of U.S. exports to Mexico, capital goods U.S. economy, such as defense conversion, techno- have decreased from 40% of total U.S. exports to logical advance and changes in consumer tastes. Mexico in 1987 to 33% in 1992. In contrast, capital While the net benefits are clear, the Administration goods comprise 40% of U.S. exports to all develop- recognizes that some U.S. workers may suffer dis- ing countries and 39% of U.S. exports to the world. location. For any U.S. worker who is in fact dis- The United States enjoys 2 significant competitive placed by NAFTA, the Administration is committed trade advantage in many areas of capital goods. to provide the assistance needed for him or her to In any event, U.S. exports of capital goods to adjust to changing market conditions. Mexico should not be viewed as a liability for the U.S. economy. Such exports support production Q. WE wages in the United States fall in order to com- and high-paying jobs in the United States and will pete with lower-wage Mexican labor? do so for many years to come. Mexico's need for A. High wages in the U.S. reflect the productivity of imported capital goods is likely to continue as long American workers, which is the highest in the as the Mexico maintains a healthy, expanding econ- world. Since U.S. jobs supported by exports are, on omy. Even the United States, the world's most pro- average, higher-paying, require higher skills than ductive economy, must expand and replace a part other jobs, and NAFTA's promotion of exports will of its capital equipment each year. lead to nct job creation, NAFTA will strengthen Finally, U.S. capital goods are on the cutting edge rather than depress U.S. average real wages. of technology. Exports of capital goods support Without NAFTA, hundreds of thousands of good, high-paying jobs. Americans will lose opportunities to find good-pay- ing jobs producing exports for the Mexican market 10 12/09/93 11:09 U.S.T.R 5 012/012 NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT Q. What has been the effect of the 1989 United States- United States. These are not jobs "lost" by American Canada Free Trade Agreement on U.S. exports? workers, but rather U.S. jobs foregone by Mexican A. Before the agreement, Canada had tariffs on workers for whom NAFTA will provide an accept- able economic alternative at home. imports that were two or three times higher than those of the United States (similar to Mexico today). Without NAFTA and a stronger Mexican economy, After the agreement to eliminate tariffs and other pressures for illegal Mexican emigration to the barriers on all United States-Canada trade flows and United States would only continue to increase. many restrictions on investment and services, U.S. merchandise exports grew 27% between 1988 and Q. In the short term, would eliminating Mexico's barri- 1992 (from $71.6 billion to $90 billion). U.S. service ers to U.S. agricultural imports lead to more rural exports to Canada increased by 78% to $17.2 bil- Mexican unemployment and increase pressures to lion during the same time period. Also, since the migrate to the United States? agreement, there have been numerous calls from A. The NAFTA agreement contains the longest phase- both sides of the border to accelerate the sched- uled phase out of tariffs. in period (up to 15 years) for Mexico to liberalize agricultural trade policies with the United States and Q. What long-term impact will NAFTA have on illegal Canada. This gives Mexican farm laborers time to immigration from Mexico? adjust and will help minimize short-term immigra- tion effects. With or without NAFTA, agricultural A NAFTA will promote economic growds and increase reforms will continue to reduce Mexican agricultur- wages in all three countries. This will create more al employment. NAFTA will enhance the opportu- economic opportunities for workers in Mexico- nities for displaced Mexican agricultural workers to the single most important, long-term remedy to ille- find other jobs in the Mexican economy gal migration from that country. According to some scholars, significant real wage increases could also Q. Wont't increase trade flows from NAFTA worsen the occur for U.S. rural and lower skilled urban work- flow of illegal drugs into the United States? ers as a result of reduced emigration from Mexico A. While NAFTA will reduce tariffs, it will not relax to the United States. customs controls on the border. AS trade between Some economic studies of NAFTA considering the the United States and Mexico has increased in immigration issue have been misconstrued to sug- recent years. cooperation in counternarcotics and gest that hundreds of thousands of Americans law enforcement has improved. By promoting U.S.- would lose their jobs because of NAFTA. In fact, Mexican cooperation, the NAFTA can foster a posi- these studies do not show such results. The "U.S." tive atmosphere for further bilateral efforts to fight job losses turn out to be hundreds of thousands of drugs. Mexican workers who decide to remain in Mexico because of the enhanced job opportunites created by NAFTA; without NAFTA, they would have crossed the border to compete for jobs in the For More Information, Contact: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 600 17th St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20506 11 frenag ta OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT WASHINGTON 20506 December 7, 1994 Alan Helene 421 E. 58th Street Apartment 22d New York, New York 10022 Dear Alan: As promised, enclosed is the letter and report we submitted to the Senate Appropriations Committee regarding the steps that are being taken to encourage Mexico to increase its $50 duty exemption limit. I look forward to receiving the materials you described. All good wishes. Sincerely, Nancy A. LeaMond Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Congressional Affairs Attachment CC: Melanne Verveer THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE Executive Office of the President Washington, D.C. 20506 DEC I Chairman Ernest F. Hollings Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State and Judiciary United States Senate Washington, D.C. 20510-6027 Dear Chairman Hollings: The Senate Report accompanying H.R. 4603, the 1995 fiscal year appropriation bill for Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary and related agencies, requested that the United States Trade Representative (USTR) report to the Senate Appropriations Committee by no later than December 1, 1994 regarding the steps being taken to encourage the Government of Mexico to alter its policy regarding the duty exemption limit for its residents returning from the United States. The attached report is being submitted in fulfillment of this requirement. USTR would be pleased to answer any questions the Subcommittee has regarding this report. Om Michael Kantor Sincerely, CC: Senator Pete V. Domenici Report to the Committee on Appropriations United States Senate Mexican Provisions on Duty-Free Imports by Travellers Submitted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative December 1, 1994 Summary The Senate Report accompanying H.R. 4603, the 1995 fiscal year appropriation bill for Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary and related agencies, noted the Appropriations Committee's great concern, "about the move by Mexico to limit to $50/day the value of merchandise that persons returning to Mexico from the United States may bring back into that country duty-free" and observed that "Mexico's policy is having a severely adverse effect on all types of retail business along the United States border with Mexico." In concluding, the Report requested that the United States Trade Representative (USTR) report to the Senate Appropriations Committee by no later than December 1, 1994 regarding the steps that are being taken to resolve this matter. This communication is submitted in fulfillment of that requirement. Resolving the problems associated with Mexico's $50 per crossing exemption has been one of our top bilateral trade priorities. The United States Trade Representative has raised the issue with senior Mexican government officials on a number of occasions, as have the Secretaries of State and Treasury, and the Commissioner of Customs. A number of members of Congress as well as state and local officials in the border region have also discussed the issues with their counterparts and with officials in Mexico City. The USTR and other senior officials have also met with retailers from the U.S. border region concerning this issue. The Mexican Government has been very responsive to U.S. Government requests for consultations on this subject, and has provided substantial information explaining its duty exemption policies. Mexico also has noted the many areas where its provisions are comparable or more generous than those of the United States and our common North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partner, Canada. The issue is complex, and includes not only the impact on U.S. retailers but also legitimate Mexican concerns about customs fraud and smuggling. Despite significant effort and good will, it has not proven possible to resolve the matter during the term of the Salinas Administration, which leaves office the day this report is being submitted. We have raised the duty exemption issue with very senior members of the incoming Zedillo administration. They are cognizant of the importance of this issue to the border region, and have given their assurances they will continue to seek a mutually acceptable resolution. 1 enforces a $400/month limit for duty-free entry of goods brought back into this country from Mexico. The Committee understands the concern of Mexican officials which led to enforcement of this restriction. However, Mexico's policy is having a severely adverse effect on all types of retail business along the United States border with Mexico. The Committee is deeply concerned about the lack of progress the United States Trade Representative has been able to make with his Mexican counterparts on this matter. The Committee expects the trade representative to place a high priority on expeditiously resolving this matter. The Committee expects the USTR to report to the Committee no later than December 1, 1994, regarding the steps that are being taken to resolve this matter. Before consulting with the Government of Mexico regarding its duty exemptions, Executive agencies compared the duty exemption regimes for the three NAFTA partners: the United States, Mexico and Canada. A summary chart follows. NAFTA Obligations The NAFTA requires Mexico, Canada and the United States to eliminate tariff and customs fees for substantially all trade in goods which meet NAFTA origin rules. The NAFTA does not apply, however, to the duty exemptions the Parties provide for non-commercial transactions with other NAFTA parties involving goods that are not eligible for NAFTA preferential treatment. Thus, Mexico's current duty exemption procedures, and its decision to enforce the $50 limit in 1992, are not inconsistent with its NAFTA obligations. However, the NAFTA does provide certain tariff preferences for non-commercial imports from NAFTA partners above the duty-exemption limits. For the United States, non-commercial imports in excess of the applicable duty-free limits ($400 per 30 day period) up to a limit of $1,000, are assessed a flat duty of 10 percent. For residents returning from Mexico, this rate was reduced to 9 percent for 1994, and will be further reduced in equal stages and eliminated in 2003. For imports valued above $1,400, the actual rate of duty, rather than a flat rate, is applied. Thus, at the end of the NAFTA transition period, the effective duty-exemption limit will rise to $1,400 for residents returning from Mexico. Similar provisions were applied to Canada when the U.S.-Canada FTA was implemented in 1989. The preferential duty rate for imports above the duty exemption level has been reduced over the last six years to 4 percent for U.S. residents returning from Canada and will be eliminated in 1998. For U.S. residents returning from abroad (other than Mexico) after an absence of less than 48 hours, the exemption limit is $200; a $400 limit applies for longer absences. Mexico assesses a flat charge of 32.8 percent for imports above the duty exemption limit and below $1,000. This includes a 20 percent duty, a 10 percent valued added tax (on both the 3 A COMPARISON OF THE NAFTA COUNTRIES' DUTY-FREE EXEMPTIONS United States Residents Returning Mexico Residents & Non-Residents Canada Residents from Mexico Amounts $400 USD, or a portion of such amount, per In addition to goods listed as part of the passenger's A) After 24 hours absence, $20 Canadian person, every 30 days, including liquor and luggage: dollars (C$). No exemption can be claimed if tobacco. It may be pooled with family the total value of goods exceeds C$20. members. A) $50 USD per person, per crossing by land; or B) C$100 after 48 hours absence. If any of the $400 exemption has been used in B) $300 USD per person, per trip, for air and sea arrivals the last 30 days, the exemption is $200 per C) C$300 after 7 days absence, claimed once crossing, including liquor and tobacco. No In both cases, personal exemptions may be pooled with each calendar year. pooling of the $200 exemption with other members of the family. family members is permitted. If the value of Exemptions may not be pooled with members the good(s) exceeds $200, duties are charged In addition: of a family. on the total value of goods being imported. C) $350 USD per month, per family residing in the border In the case of infants or small children, the 30 days after the $400 exemption was totally strip, of certain consumer goods, such as food, medicine, exemption may be applied only to goods for or partially used, an exemption of up to $400 and clothing (in addition to the allowances for soft drinks, their use. may again be claimed. liquor, wine, beer and tobacco), regardless of the number of members in the family. Liquor & Every 30 days or crossing, the following may In addition to the $50 or $300 USD exemptions, Included in the C$100 or C$300 exemptions, Tobacco be included in the exemptions above, up to: passengers are allowed to bring in, per crossing, up to: each adult may bring up to: - One liter of liquor, wine or beer; and - 3 liters of wine or liquor; and - 1.14 liters of liquor or wine, or 8.5 liters of beer; and - 200 cigarettes and 100 cigars. - 20 packs of cigarettes, or 50 cigars, or 250 grams of tobacco. - 200 cigarettes, 50 cigars and 400 grams of tobacco. Taxes 1) Duty-free articles are excluded. Taxes are levied only on the value of dutiable goods in A special 12% to 15% duty rate (including Due excess of the exemption. The importer has two options: GST) on the first C$300 in excess of the 2) Articles with the highest duty rates are exemption. counted toward the exemption. 1) With the services of a Customs Broker, to classify the merchandise and pay the corresponding tariff (0% to 20%), Sales taxes applied at the country where the 3) Articles exceeding the $400 exemption, and plus a 10% of valued added tax on the value of the goods goods were purchased are included in the up to $1,400, pay a flat 10% duty rate (9% and on customs duties, and a .8% of customs fee; or computation, unless such taxes were refunded from Mexico, or 4% from Canada). to the importer. 2) Through a simplified procedure, without the assistance 4) Beyond $1,400, articles are taxed with the of a Broker, to pay either a 20.8% combined rate, or corresponding tariff. 32.8% combined rate if the goods are not marked or labeled as made in the USA or Canada. This simplified procedure only applies when the value of the goods does not exceed $1,000 USD ($4,000 for computers). most notably its strong desire to reduce Customs fraud and smuggling along the border and to ensure effective and efficient administration of its customs laws. Mexico has also pointed out that the United States runs a substantial trade surplus along the border. According to statistics provided by the Secretariat for Commerce and Industrial Development (SECOFI), Mexican residents spent $4.02 billion dollars in the U.S. border strip in 1992, while U.S. residents spent slightly more than half this amount, $2.13 billion in Mexico's border region. SECOFI believes this deficit has continued for 1993 and 1994. Mexico has suggested that a constructive approach would be to consider the issue within the Trilateral Heads of Customs Conference framework. A cooperative effort by the three NAFTA partners to standardize all possible Customs duty exemption procedures, requirements and provisions may offer the best prospects for success. Similar views have been expressed by Mexico's new President, Emesto Zedillo. Mexican press reports note that following a meeting with Texas Governor Ann Richards on October 10, Zedillo stated his willingness to review the "franchise" rights of border residents, but added that, "This measure calls for similar action by U.S. officials so as to ensure reciprocal conditions on both sides of the border." This Administration believes such a review to be worthwhile and appropriate and should include both Mexico and Canada. As a result, U.S. Customs has agreed to place this issue on the agenda for discussion at the next meeting of the U.S./Mexico/Canada Trilateral Coordination Team (scheduled for February 1995) and the next Trilateral Heads of Customs Conference (Spring 1995). In addition to the upcoming trilateral meetings, it is likely that the United States and Mexican Customs Administrations will hold a "bilateral Customs Meeting" in early 1995. U.S. Customs will raise the exemption issue during these discussions. USTR fully supports efforts to expand trade among the members of the NAFTA. In particular, a decision by Mexico to restore its higher duty exemption levels for border residents will benefit both Mexican consumers and U.S. retailers. All three NAFTA partners would also benefit from greater harmonization of exemption limits and regulations. USTR intends to make resolution of the duty exemption issue one of its top priorities with the new Administration of President Zedillo and the Government of Canada. USTR supports the efforts of the U.S. Customs Service to include this issue on its trilateral meeting agenda early next year, and will provide any assistance, support and expertise this agency can offer as we work toward greater harmonization of duty exemption standards, and build on the successes we have enjoyed to date as the NAFTA expands trade, creates jobs for our workers and benefits consumers throughout North America. 1 La Jornada, Mexico City, October 11, 1994. 6