Winston Churchill to Franklin D. Roosevelt

IOST SECRET London, October 27, 1940. To: Purvis From: Salter Please request Mr. Morgenthau to convey the following message to the President from former naval person: "We have not yet heard what Vichy has agreed to. If, however, they have betrayed warships and African and other Colonial harbours to Hitler, our already heavy task will be grievously aggravated. If Oran and Bizerta become German-Italian submarine bases, our hopes of stopping or impeding the reinforcement of the hostile army now attacking Egypt will be destroyed, and the heaviest form of German-organized Italian attack must be expected. The situation in the Western Medi- terranean will also be gravely worsened. If Dakar is betrayed, very great dangers will arise in the Atlantic unless we are able to rectify the position, which will not be easy. On the other hand, the announcement of Vichy's terms may lead to much desired revolt in the French Empire, which we should have to aid and foster with further drains upon our slowly expanding resources. Either way, therefore, immense exertions will be required from us in the Mediterranean during the next year. We are endeavouring to assemble a very large army in the Middle East, and the movement of troops thither from all parts of the Empire, especially from the Mother country, has for some months past been un- ceasing. The campaign which will develop there cer- tainly in the new year, and which may involve Turkey and Greece, makes demands upon our shipping and munitions output and resources which are enormous and beyond our power without your help to supply to a degree which would ensure victory. All the time we have to provide for the de- fence of the island against invasion which is fully mounted and for which sixty of the best German divisions and superior Air Forces stand ready. Lastly the U-boat and air attacks upon our only remaining life line, the northwestern approach, will be repelled only by the strongest concentration of our flotillas. REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED