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Digitized from Box 20 of the NSA. Presidential Country Files: East Asia and the Pacific at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library CONPIDENTIAL - 2 - -- It follows, therefore, that we should commit our- selves only selectively to undertakings likely to involve the expenditure of lives or of massive resources. (Im- portant note: having made commitments, we cannot be selectively reliable in fulfilling them.) -- Recognizing that constancy in our commitments is important, we should nevertheless avoid confusing constancy with inertia. When circumstances change dramatically, or a commitment clearly becomes unsustainable, we should draw the right conclusions and change our policy accordingly. 1968 was probably a better time to try for a comprehensive political settlement in Viet-Nam than was 1972. 1973 was a better time to press the GVN for further realistic political negotiations--particularly since we were in that year deprived by the Congress of the ability to enforce FORD the Paris Agreement-- than was 1974 or 1975. The Nature of Allies ones) 8. (BEARD) -- Foremost among the criteria we might henceforth employ in making judgments about our commitments is the indigenous strength and will of our prospective ally--its ability to help itself. Although the Vietnamese government we supported was far more humane than its adversary, it was, in the final analysis, unable to mobilize effectively the support of its people in the face of an implacable, dis- ciplined enemy. Without such support, ultimate defeat was probably inevitable. On our desire to stem North Vietnamese communist expansion, we underestimated this critical factor. -- In effect, we allowed saving South Viet-Nam to become more important to us than it was for the South Vietnamese themselves, In the future, we should gauge our support to our allies' efforts, and their successes. If they cannot do the job, we will be unable to do it for them. -- We should be fully aware of the fragility of govern- ments which rest, to a significant degree, on the support of the military. This was not the chief cause of South Viet-Nam's downfall--indeed the GVN retained a considerable aura of legitimacy within Viet-Nam--but the inflexibility and narrowness of judgment of an increasingly isolated leadership in the face of unyielding North Vietnamese pressure played a role in the nation's ultimate collapse. CONPIDENTIAL

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    "ocrText": "Digitized from Box 20 of the NSA. Presidential Country Files: East Asia and the Pacific at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library\nCONPIDENTIAL\n- 2 -\n-- It follows, therefore, that we should commit our-\nselves only selectively to undertakings likely to involve\nthe expenditure of lives or of massive resources. (Im-\nportant note: having made commitments, we cannot be\nselectively reliable in fulfilling them.)\n-- Recognizing that constancy in our commitments is\nimportant, we should nevertheless avoid confusing constancy\nwith inertia. When circumstances change dramatically, or\na commitment clearly becomes unsustainable, we should\ndraw the right conclusions and change our policy accordingly.\n1968 was probably a better time to try for a comprehensive\npolitical settlement in Viet-Nam than was 1972. 1973\nwas a better time to press the GVN for further realistic\npolitical negotiations--particularly since we were in that\nyear deprived by the Congress of the ability to enforce\nFORD\nthe Paris Agreement-- than was 1974 or 1975.\nThe Nature of Allies\nones) 8. (BEARD)\n-- Foremost among the criteria we might henceforth\nemploy in making judgments about our commitments is the\nindigenous strength and will of our prospective ally--its\nability to help itself. Although the Vietnamese government\nwe supported was far more humane than its adversary, it\nwas, in the final analysis, unable to mobilize effectively\nthe support of its people in the face of an implacable, dis-\nciplined enemy. Without such support, ultimate defeat was\nprobably inevitable. On our desire to stem North Vietnamese\ncommunist expansion, we underestimated this critical factor.\n-- In effect, we allowed saving South Viet-Nam to\nbecome more important to us than it was for the South\nVietnamese themselves, In the future, we should gauge\nour support to our allies' efforts, and their successes.\nIf they cannot do the job, we will be unable to do it for\nthem.\n-- We should be fully aware of the fragility of govern-\nments which rest, to a significant degree, on the support\nof the military. This was not the chief cause of South\nViet-Nam's downfall--indeed the GVN retained a considerable\naura of legitimacy within Viet-Nam--but the inflexibility\nand narrowness of judgment of an increasingly isolated\nleadership in the face of unyielding North Vietnamese\npressure played a role in the nation's ultimate collapse.\nCONPIDENTIAL"
}