Memorandum from Clark Clifford to President Harry S. Truman [Clifford-Rowe Memorandum]

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TRUMAN HORNEY CONFIDENTIAL GOVERNNENT MEMORAN DUM FOR THE PRESIDENT The title of this memorandum might well be "The Politics of 1948". The aim of the memorandum is to outline a course of political conduct for the Administration extending from November, 1947 to November, 1948. It is obvious that such an outline cannot encompass the details of a political course because they will depend upon interim developments. How- ever, it is my conviction that we must chart a course at this time which will contain the basic elements of our policy. Comments that are presented here are based solely on an appraisal of the politically advantageous course to follow. In a democracy, action that is politically advisable may often accord with the merits of a particular policy. Sometimes it does not. It may generally be assumed that the policy that is politically wise is also the best policy for this country. An old axiom claims that politics is no more than a study of the probabilities. If that is so, there can be no original or unusual think- ing in such a survey as this; it must, rather, be devoted to a review of the usual. Most of the comments to be made on modern American politics have already been said and are constantly being restated. For instance, the basic premise of this memorandum -- that the Democratic Party is an unhappy alliance of Southern conservatives, Western progressives and Big City labor is very trite, but it is also very true. And it is equally true that the success or failure of the Democratic leader- ship can be precisely measured by its ability to lead enough members of these three misfit groups to the polls on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November, 1948. It may, however, be useful to attempt an estimate, as of November, 1947, of what will probably happen in the next year and to suggest what steps

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