Report, Central Intelligence Agency, Advance Copy of Special Estimate Number 20, The Probably Consequences of Certain Possible United States Courses of Action with Respect to Communist China and Korea

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53817-m TOP SECRET NLT(PSF-SUBT): 366 SECURITY INFORMATION CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY oin china WASHINGTON 25, D. C. 15 December 1951 CONFIDENTIAL- DECLASSIFIED RAC 10/5/2010 ADVANCE COPY Authority ML-PSF-36-18-2 By. SOB NARA, Dak/5/13 SPECIAL ESTIMATE # 20 THE PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES OF CERTAIN POSSIBLE US COURSES OF ACTION WITH RESPECT TO COMMUNIST CHINA AND KOREA THE PROBLEM To estimate (a) the effect on Communist China of certain possible US courses of action, and (b) the Communist reaction to these courses of action. NARA ESTIMATE 1. Expansion of the Korean War by Imposition of a UN Embargo on Shipping and Exports to Communist China a. A UN embargo on shipping and exports to Communist China, if effective, could reduce Communist Chinese seaborne The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, cipated with the Central Intelligence Agency in the preparation the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff parti- of this estimate. All members of the Intelligence Advisory Committee concurred in this estimate on 15 December 1951 CONFIDENTIAL TOP SECRET