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SECRET - 5 - him to change his purpose. There is, also, a substantial possibility that war might result. It is, therefore, essential to make an early decision on accepting the hazard and preparing for it. The 'substantial possibility" of the success of the course of action here depends on the existence of a core of hard decision, understood in all its grimness and cost. Further- more, the condition of the country in the event of war will also depend on an early and deliberate decision. A hasty and improvised decision in the eleventh hour of approaching panic and hysteria could add vastly to the cost of war. II. Preparations SECRET

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