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MASSACHUSETTS Tobacco- Price Jonathan Gruber ASTITUTED OF RECHNOLOGY MIT Professor 50 Memorial Drive, E52-355 of Economics Cambridge, MA 02142 January 20, 2000 Mr. Bruce N. Reed Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy and Director of the Domestic Policy Council The White House Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Bruce, I enclose for your perusal a paper that I have recently completed on the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking decisions ("Youth Smoking in the U.S.: Prices and Policies"). As you may recall, during the debates of Spring 1998 there was a lot of criticism of the existing literature that suggested that youths were responsive to prices in their decision to smoke. This paper revisits that question, trying to convincingly address the misgivings that some had with the previous literature. I conclude that the price sensitivity for older teens (HS seniors) is almost exactly what we used two years ago: an elasticity of -0.66. I also find, however, that younger teens (8-11th graders) are not very price sensitive. So higher prices are unlikely to lower smoking much among younger teens, but these youths will respond quite strongly by the time that they are seniors. I also do not find any evidence that other policies such as clean air restrictions or youth access restrictions do much to lower youth smoking. I hope that this work is helpful to you as you move forward with tobacco policy. I'm happy to talk further about this work or other tobacco related matters. Sincerely, Jonathan Gruber Phone: (617) 253-8892 [email protected] Fax: (617) 253-1330