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First Debate: Suggestions from Outside the White House
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First Debate: Suggestions from Outside the White House
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The original documents are located in Box 1, folder "First Debate: Suggestions from
Outside the White House" of the White House Special Files Unit Files at the Gerald R.
Ford Presidential Library.
Copyright Notice
The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of
photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United
States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections.
Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public
domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to
remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid
copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Digitized from Box 1 of the White House Special Files Unit Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
THE PRESIDENT HAS SERN
POSTAL RATE COMMISSION
Memorandum
September 15, 1976
TO:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
PAUL A. MILTICH
Pam
SUBJECT: UPCOMING DEBATE ON SEPT. 23.
Mr. President, I think you did very well in answering the
questions put to you on the Today Show regarding the economy,
but I would suggest you go on the attack when the issue of un-
employment arises in the Sept. 23 debate, as I am sure it will.
You should ask Carter which problem he gives higher priority
to--unemployment or inflation. Whatever his answer, he will have
a problem explaining why--and how he would deal with both problems.
For your part, you should take the affirmative by stating that
you are dealing with both problems at the same and making steady
progress. If Carter talks of stimulating the economy to bring
down unemployment, you should raise the possibility that any
actions taken by those of the Carter school of thought would
trigger a big new wave of inflation. While it might help some
of the seven to eight million unemployed, what would artificial
stimulation of the economy do through price inflation to the in-
comes of the 88 million who presently have jobs? It should be
stressed that Carter & Company would worsen inflation while your
administration would follow a path of steady economic growth in
which unemployment would be lowered in ways other than pumping
up total spending. You should point out that you will bring
about lower unemployment without a wage and price explosion--
both of which Carter policies would risk.
I have run across what I consider to be a most impressive
statistic: For the year ended July 1976, the Consumer Price
Index rose only 5.4 percent--the smallest 12-month increase
since the days of wage and price controls in 1972 and early
1973. What is Carter going to do to improve on the steady
progress you are making in fighting inflation? Go back to
wage and price controls? Labor is strongly opposed to controls
on wages. So is Carter advocating price controls without wage
controls? What would that do to the economy and what would be
the consequences when price controls were finally removed?
Carter is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He talks
about stimulating the economy and at the same time talks about
balancing the budget. He cannot pump up the economy by pumping
up government spending and at the same time balance the budget.
He just is not levelling with the American people.
#####
POSTAL RATE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20268
Paul A. Miltich
COMMISSIONER
September 15, 1976
Miss Mildred Leonard
Personal Assistant
to the President
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Mildred:
Here is the memo I spoke with you about on the
phone. I hope it is helpful to the President.
Please give him my regards.
Sincerely,
Paul
Paul A. Miltich
Enclosure
Mr. President:
TRESILENT
TAS
SEAL
GREATO FORD JOHANT
I would like to offer you a few thoughts on the coming campaign.
1. Ignore the pleaseof members of Congress who want you to travel all
over the country campaigning for them.
2. Concentrate on the TV debates -- and primarily the first debate.
As one who has prepared four candidates for TV debates, I would make
the following suggestions:
a) Candidate and staff should determine amount of preparation time
needed for first debate, and then double it.
b) Practice runs should be made against at least two different people
imitating the opponent but using different tactics.
c) Candidate must appear as if he hasn't spent all his time preparing
for the first debate -- but, in fact, he should have spent most of his time
in preparation.
d) A task force should be working right now on the first debate, and must
have complete access to the candidate over the next weeks.
e) Physical image of the candidate is very important. Candidate should
be well rested, properly made up, dressed and positioned.
f) First debate should be rehearsed many times.
g) One theme or major point should be stressed throughout debate, regardless
of debate topic. This should be the key point, theme, of campaign.
h) Keep in mind mental level of TV audience and rehearse to such an audience.
Candidate must speak to TV audience, not to news media.
i) Candidate should not be too structured -- completely prepared but not
up-tight or inflexible. He who is best prepared is most relaxed.
j) Candidate's answers should be short and responsive. Each answer should
be followed by an attack or a positive statement.
k) Staff work should be completed as far in advance of first debate as possible
in order to avoid any sense of urgency or pressure on the candidate.
1) If the candidate feels comfortable it is a good technique for him
to look at his opponent at all times when he isn't looking into the
camera eye.
Joel Pritchard
You must be brutal in the handling of the President's time
in the coming weeks.
This paper was not prepared by anyone associated with government
nor was it prepared in response to a request. Rather it was
submitted on a voluntary basis.
JIMMY CARTER'S POTENTIALLY SERIOUS
LIABILITIES AND VULNERABILITIES
THE PRESIDENT HAS SEEN
The polls give Jimmy Carter almost a 20-point lead over
either Republican candidate. In tracing the Gallup poll
data over the past three decades, we find that no presidential
candidate has ever bounced back from such a big mid-summer
deficit. Nevertheless, Carter's lead is certain to narrow
as the election approaches. His strategists recognize this
probability, and they are trying to predict the extent of
the erosion. For they see potentially serious flaws and
weaknesses in Carter as a man and a candidate. Conceivably,
these could defeat him if his opponent can exploit them - a
big question mark.
It should be noted that Carter has faced only about
20 percent of the total U.S. electorate under circumstances
that may not provide an accurate test of national sentiment.
He represents change and uncertainty; Ford represents
stability and predictability. While the people say they
want "change," they may not want some of the specific
changes Carter has in mind. Carter has capitalized thus
far on vagueness, ambiguity and even mystery. But the
- 2 -
GERALD
LIBRARY
coming campaign will cast the Carter enigma in another light:
risk and danger.
Pollster Louis Harris is among those who believe Carter
is "very vulnerable." He recently told newsmen: "Jimmy Carter
has not proven himself. He's very vulnerable. We find (in
our polls) that he's not an inspirational figure." Almost
two-thirds of those polled, said Harris, "are worried about
a politician who says he'll never lie."
In our discussions with political, military and academic
observers during the past few weeks, they have identified
several Carter vulnerabilities. Most of them note an obvious
problem: Carter's boundless self-confidence may easily
become offensive arrogance. As in the case of "ethnic purity,"
he may make another highly exploitable misstatement. Many
observers attach considerable importance to the not yet fully
demonstrated powers of an incumbent President in a time of
economic recovery.
Despite his pollstanding, Carter has the same problem
that confronts any outsider: the President dominates the news.
A successful demonstration of Presidental leadership in an
international crisis situation would rally the nation behind
Ford and revive the old argument: "don't change horses in
mid-stream." Carter has no control over events overseas,
which could work greatly to Ford's advantage. The President
- 3 -
and his aides are perceived by the voters as experienced
in foreign affairs, while Carter is seen as inexperienced
and untested.
Carter's very limited appeal to Catholic voters -
particularly urban, working-class Catholics in northern
states - is a potentially major problem for him.
There are an estimated 30 million registered Catholic
voters, and nearly 7 out of every 10 of them are concentrated
in a dozen large states containing 271 electoral votes -
one more vote than needed to elect a President. Traditionally,
Catholics have voted Democratic by about a 4:1 ratio. They
gave John F. Kennedy 78 percent of their vote, and Lyndon
Johnson 76 percent. But Hubert Humphrey got only 59 percent
and George McGovern a surprising 48 percent - the first time
in at least 40 years that a Democratic candidate failed to
receive a majority of the Catholic vote.
Carter is an unlikely figure to reverse this downtrend.
Even so, in passing over Senator Muskie for his running-mate
and picking the very liberal, pro-abortion Senator Mondale,
Carter indicated that he felt that his "Catholic problem" is
manageable without a Catholic on the ticket. His influential
pollster, Patrick Caddell (himself a Catholic), seems less
confident, declaring: "Jimmy is perceived as very much of a
FORD
Protestant candidate. Carter has run weakly in heavily
Catholic states, e.g. New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York
and Maryland."
Ford, in contrast, scores well in polls of Catholic
voters, for his form of Protestant religion and cultural
heritage is more congenial to Catholics, who consider
religion a private matter.
Another potential Carter weakness is his tendency to
exploit and discard prestigious advisers after they have
served their purposes in his goal-oriented political strategy.
Carter is not committed to his present foreign policy
advisers. Even the highly publicized Professor Brezinski
feels neglected. Until this week, he privately complained,
he had not seen Carter in almost two months.
Another widely advertised, big-name association, Admiral
Hyman Rickover, is clearly marked for oblivion. Rickover's
debate with the Pentagon over shipbuilder claims is viewed
as insubordination by Carter, according to Navy sources.
Carter once drew inspiration from Rickover. As President,
however, Carter probably would ask the over-age Rickover for
his resignation. This consistently one-sided pattern in
Carter's relationships will discourage prominent new recruits
to his campaign because of the uncertainty of future rewards.
15 -
In a campaign against President Ford, Carter could be
weakened by tactics that force him to take clearer stands on
issues. Carter's appeal in the primaries was based on a
theme: trust me to restore decency in Washington. He
skillfully avoided specific commitments.
But Carter is now becoming caught in self-contradictions.
For example, his recent effort to sound pro-business before a
group of corporate executives in New York failed to impress
them. It also annoyed the distrustful unions, especially
when Carter came out for keeping the foreign tax credit strongly
favored by multinational corporations. His tone in addressing
the businessmen flatly contradicted the populist "soak the
rich" tone of his acceptance speech.
Carter will be forced to give his views more clearly on
important measures scheduled for Congressional debate before
the fall recess - e.g. tax reform, federalization of the
unemployment insurance system, natural gas decontrol and a
protectionist "buy American" proposal. Some Carter advisers
already are pitted against important Southern supporters on
the issue of "buy American.'
- /6 -
Still another difficulty Carter faces is the cumulative
effect of the concessions he has made to win the support of
the liberal wing of the party - in the Democratic platform,
in his policy statements, and in his selection of a running-
mate. Senator Mondale, according to a survey by the ultra
liberal Americans for Democratic Action, had a "liberal
quotient" of 94 percent on his voting record in 1975. Carter
has succeeded chiefly by projecting the image of a centrist -
a fiscal and social conservative who will pursue activist
economic policies. His identification with liberal positions
tarnishes this image.
Carter's family, it should be noted, is probably more
liberal than he is. His son Chip is a strong advocate of
sexual equality even to the point of participating in events
sponsored by homosexuals. His son Jeff is an outspoken
admirer of Senator Frank Church and admits trying drugs.
Folk singer Bob Dylan and Robert Kennedy are family heroes.
The family urged his choice of Mondale. His wife and their
close-knit family exert far more influence on the man than
his advisers. Carter recently went so far as to call Vietnam
a "racist" war, which is close to McGovern's 1972 rhetoric.
7
Republicans who have bothered to add up the additional
costs of the federal programs that Carter has endorsed say
these total more than $75 billion a year - mostly in the form
of new transfer payments. Pollster Harris says that the
Democratic Platform, if fully implemented, would within a
few years nearly double the federal budget - to a total of
about $750 billion annually. The implications are plain:
high inflation, higher taxes high interest rates
a
return
to wage and price controls. Republicans will call public
attention to these costs and consequences. Carter's turn to
the left puts him in fact - if not yet in appearance -
squarely in the camp of those who advocate a larger federal
bureaucracy and more centralized controls, precisely the
opposite of the"anti-Washington" stance he took during the
primaries.
Carter's public image is the gleaming smile. But his
eyes and the rest of his face are unsmiling. Still hidden in
the shadows is Carter's complex character and personality,
his sense of destiny, his obsessive drive and his iron
discipline. Herein may lie his greatest vulnerability. The
8 -
LIBRER
public may be more afriad of the man's strengths, and
the threats they pose to the democratic system, than concerned
about his weaknesses. Over the centuries, Americans have
displayed a healthy fear of "great" men. They seek leadership
and admire excellence but are often inclined to vote for the
safe predictability of mediocrity.
* * *
LAW OFFICES
HERRICK, LANGDON, BELIN, HARRIS, LANGDON & HELMICK
2000 FINANCIAL CENTER
SEVENTH AND WALNUT
DES MOINES, IOWA 50309
ALLAN A. HERRICK
TELEPHONE
HERSCHEL G. LANGDON
(515) 244-1116
DAVID W. BELIN
CHARLES E. HARRIS
COUNSEL
RICHARD G. LANGDON
DWIGHT BROOKE
ROBERT H. HELMICK
PHILIP C. LOVRIEN
August 9, 1976
LAWRENCE E. POPE
JOEL D. NOVAK
JEFFREY E. LAMSON
EDGAR H. BITTLE
FREDERICK C. BLACKLEDGE
CURT L.SYTSMA
DAVID L. CLAYPOOL
The President of the United States
The White House
Washington, D. C. 20500
Dear Mr President:
Enclosed is a copy of my basic strategy paper No. 10 for August
entitled, "The Five Keys to Victory in November."
Best regards.
Sincerely,
and
David W. Belin
DWB:cs
Encl.
C.C. Richard Cheney
C.C. Robert Hartmann
C.C. Ron Nessen
C.C. Philip Buchen
P.S. I know your time is precious, particularly as you look forward
to the nomination in Kansas City, but I would urge you to read
this entire paper before making your Vice Presidential selection.
THE ELECTION OF PRESIDENT FORD
BASIC STRATEGY PAPER NO. 10 - AUGUST, 1976
David W. Belin
FORD CIRRARY
The Five Keys to Victory in November
The hour is late. We are far behind in the polls. But
victory can be achieved in November if we recognize five
essential ingredients: (1) The record of President Ford in
restoring trust and confidence in government, the maintenance
of peace, control of inflation, and ever-increasing prosperity.
Together with the emphasis on the President's performance,
there must be an expression of the President's goals, plans,
hopes and aspirations for the Nation in his first four-year term.
(2) The abysmal performance of the Democratic-controlled 94th
Congress. (3) The Democratic Party Platform which promises
more taxes, more inflation, and more big government. (4) The
tremendous emotional and psychological opportunities in this
campaign, which are elements that Republican candidates con-
sistently fail to recognize. (5) The selection of the proper
Vice Presidential running mate to integrate with the previous
four items and capitalize on overall opportunities.
Let us discuss each of these items briefly.
FORD
1. The record of President Ford. Basically, President
Ford must run on his record. And it is a record that he can be
proud of. The restoration of trust and confidence in government,
the maintenance of peace, the bringing of inflation under control,
and the development of ever-increasing prosperity. (And I think
it is important to use the "ever-increasing" adjective so that we
do not fall in the box of saying that prosperity is already here
but many people do not realize it yet.)
There is one factor that should be emphasized. I think it
is fair to say that if there were not peace, then it would be
understandable for the Democrats to attack the foreign policy
of this country. But how can the Democrats attack foreign policy
when there are no American troops engaged in fighting anywhere
in the world.
At the same time, I think we can assert that if there were
still double-digit inflation, if the Gross National Product were
falling, then it might be appropriate to attack the President's
domestic policies. But the fact remains that the great majority
of the people in this country are gaining an ever-increasing
confidence in the economy.
This will be further discussed as a part of the overall
emotional opportunities.
-2-
FORD
2. In addition, the campaign should capitalize on running
against the record of the 94th Congress the way Truman ran
against the record of the 80th Congress in 1948. There is the
fact of Congressional inaction in energy. There is Congressional
inaction in tax reform. There is Congressional inaction in
welfare reform. There is Congressional inaction in a host of
other areas. The attacks on Congress should be in a frame of
reference of positive programs that the President has put forth
so this does not appear to be an entirely negative approach.
At the same time, the attacks on Congress should be
accompanied with compassion for the common citizen. I dis-
cussed this earlier in the December paper and the need for
the Republican Party to recognize its lack of perception in this
area.
The attacks on Congress should also be accompanied by
the use of what John Rhoades calls one of the best-kept secrets
of the century: The fact that the Democrats have controlled
40
44
Congress for 36 of the past is years.
-3-
Finally, the attacks on Congress should be accompanied with
an attack on the promises of the Democratic candidate (as opposed
to the candidate himself, for I think we should avoid personal
attack). Carter promises lots of reorganizations of government.
But the Democrats have been in control of Congress for most of
the past 40 years and have failed to reorganize Congress.
The public does not hold Congress in high esteem, and we
can capitalize on this public perception.
3. In addition, there should be an attack on the Democratic
Party Platform. It promises three things: More taxes, more
inflation and more big government. There has to be constant
reemphasis of this.
This should be accompanied by a financial analysis of what
the Democrats promise--between $150 billion and $200 billion
of added government programs which will mean tremendous increases
in taxes as well as tremendous increases of inflation and more
and more bureaucracy in Washington. This is a natural Republican
issue.
4. Emotional and voter psychology opportunities. As a
part of our logical and objective and positive statement of
issues, there should be a liberal sprinkling (but not over-
-4-
done) of the fact that we are the underdog. The polls show that
we are behind. Perhaps we will not win, but we have the story
to tell to the people, and we are going to tell that story to
the people.
Everyone roots for the underdog. Truman was able to get
the people rooting for him because he was an underdog. We should
be able to follow the same course.
With this as a foundation, we then enter the last few days
of the campaign and add two basic ingredients of emotion: The
natural feeling on the part of a human being not to knife another
person in the back, and the natural apprehension of the human
being for the unknown.
There is a natural tendency not to want to knife a person
in the back--particularly when that person has done a decent job.
I think this psychological element is particularly applicable
to the entire country in the last few days of the campaign. The
voter should understand that the President has been working
tremendously hard--and has succeeded on the very jobs that were
thought to be key when he first assumed office. The country
wanted him to bring peace. He did this. The country wanted
to bring inflation under control. He did this. The country wanted
to have increased prosperity. The President did this. The
-5-
FORD
country wanted to have a restoration of trust and confidence
in government. The President did this.
After having accomplished all of these tremendous challenges
that faced him when the President assumed office, is it fair to
knife the President in the back and throw him out of office?
I think that there are tremendous television opportunities
that should be saved for the last few days of the campaign when
there are opportunities to sway a tremendous amount of undecided
voters.
These opportunities also fit into the other aspects of the
tremendous psychological opportunities that can be capitalized
on in the last week of the campaign--and in particular the very
natural psychological fear of the average voter of the unknown.
"When you walk into the voting booth and are ready to mark
an X or pull a lever for one candidate, remember that you know
what you have with President Ford. He is a man who has restored
trust in government. He has brought peace to our land. He
has brought ever-increasing prosperity to our land. He has
brought inflation under control.
-6-
"Before you cast your ballot, think twice and think whether
or not you want to change from a man that you know--a man who
has performed everything that was asked of him--to a man
you do not know--a man who gives many promises, who says one
thing one week and another thing another week, and who has
engaged in personal attacks on the President, even though he
first said he would not.
"When you cast your ballot, do you want to give up what
you now have for the promises of an unknown future?"
These are not the precise words that should be used, but
this is the basic concept that must be gotten across. And it
should be saved for the last week of the campaign because that
is when it is applicable, just prior to the time the person goes
to the ballot box. At that time, it will also be too late for
Mr. Carter to reply.
To put it another way, a bird in the hand is worth two
in the bush, and the voter has experienced this time and time
again. He will have a natural apprehension of what he cannot
foresee. And these natural apprehensions, coupled with the
sense of fairness of not kicking a person in the back, coupled
-7-
with the emotional use of the underdog elements, offer tremendous
psychological opportunities--opportunities that must be captured
if we are to win in November.
We Republicans have a great ability to present logical
arguments. We have a great ability to present negative argu-
ments. But we have an inability to put an entire campaign
of logical arguments together with the seasoning of natural
emotions which are part of the character of the average American
voter.
5. The Vice Presidential candidate. In order to
capitalize fully on this overall strategy, it is essential
that the running mate who is selected is the best person to
capitalize on this overall strategy. The following are the
primary criteria which must be considered:
a. The candidate should be someone who is not part of the
Washington establishment in general and who is not part of Congress
in particular. Jimmy Carter is running a anti-Washington cam-
paign, and the Republican ticket must have someone on that ticket
(assuming Nelson Rockefeller is not selected because of his
ability and experience) who can counter the anti-Washington Carter
campaign and the anti-Washington general mood. In particular,
-8-
FORD
the person should be able to capitalize on the opportunities
to run against the record of the 94th Congress.
b. The person should have no connection with the adminis-
tration of Richard Nixon or Watergate and should have no "skeletons"
in his closet from such things as milk fund money, oil lobbies
money, etc.
C. The person should be philosophically in the middle of the
road to balance the ticket philosophically and to help heal the
wounds of the Republican Party where so many middle-of-the-road--
moderate Republicans are unhappy with the course of the primary
campaign which has been dominated by the more conservate elements
of the Party.
d. The Vice Presidential candidate must have demonstrated
experience in successful state-wide election campaigns. A national
Presidential campaign is no place for on-the-job training, and
it would be foolhardy to bring someone into the picture who has
not really demonstrated on more than one occasion that he is
capable of winning state-wide elections in swing states. Election
expertise is something that is very sorely needed at this time.
-9-
FORD CIRSIAN
e. The Vice Presidential candidate should be someone who
in many ways would be the least controversial and would take
away the least from the President.
f. In order to capitalize on the emotional psychology
we have discussed, the Vice Presidential candidate should come
across as a very nice, decent, genuine, human being--someone whom
the voter can identify with, and someone who on television will
be sincere when he talks about the fact that it is not fair to
kick the President in the back after what the President has done
and when he talks about the fact that when the voter walks into
the voting booth and is ready to cast his ballot, he should
think twice before. he makes a decision whether or not to keep
what he has or try something new and unknown.
From the viewpoint of this overall strategy, I believe that
for many reasons, Governor Ray of Iowa would be far and away
the best choice for Vice President. Like many others being
mentioned, he offers a philosophical balance of being from the
middle of the road. Like many others being mentioned, he has
no connections with the Nixon-Watergate years in Washington nor
does he have any connections with milk fund money or oil lobby
-10-
money, etc. Like some others being mentioned, he is not part
of the Washington establishment. But when you want someone who
meets these criteria and also has the demonstrated expertise of
winning elections in a swing state--most vividly in 1974 in the
post-Watergate election where he obtained nearly 60% of the
vote at a time when five out of six Democratic Congressional
candidates were winning and the Democratic senator was being
elected and in face of the best-financed Democratic gubernatorial
campaign in history--and when you add to all of this the fact
that in a fourth term, Governor Ray enjoys an 82% approval rating
from the public with only 8% unfavorable (and 10% undecided),
then you have a rare combination.
Who better would there be to ask a voter, is it fair to
turn your back on a President who has brought peace to our land,
ever-increasing prosperity to our land, inflation under control,
and credibility to government?
And who better would there be to ask a voter, when you cast
your ballot, do you want to give up what you now have for the
promises of a unknown future? The person asking these questions
must be a person who has demonstrated his capacity to communicate
-11-
with the average citizen of this country. I know of no better
evidence than four successive election wins in a swing state
and 82% favorable support from a cross-section of the American
public.
But the key is that the selection of the Vice Presidential
candidate must be made with particular reference to the kind of
strategy that will be needed to win in November. This strategy
must have a combination in logical arguments and a combination
of identification with the natural psychology of the voter.
We have the arguments. And we can put together the right
kind of a campaign to capitalize on these arguments and capitalize
on the underlying psychological advantages that we have.
David W. Belin
2000 Financial Center
Des Moines, Iowa 50309
August 6, 1976
-12-