Memorandum from Rear Admiral R. H. Hillenkoetter to President Harry S. Truman

CIA 22795 TOP SECRET NLTCPSF.Intellaz AGENCY CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE GROUR 2430 E STREET NW. was WASHINGTON 25, D. C. to 6 AUG 1948 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT The immediate objective of the USSR, in agreeing to enter into negotiations on Germany, is probably to: (a) ease present international tension; and (b) exploit the current dilemma of the western powers by seeking an agreement on terms which would offer the Kremlin certain strategic advantages in return for tactical concessions. If the Soviet representatives become convinced that the western powers are unwilling to accept minimum Soviet demands, the USSR will probably proceed to utilize the proposed conference: (a) to retard the western program for "containment" of the USSR; (b) to promote dissension among the western powers; and (c) to provide a sounding board for Soviet propaganda which would seek to interpret Soviet willingness to negotiate as proof of Moscow's "peaceful intentions" and the failure to reach agreement as proof of western intransigence. It is believed that in such negotiations the maximum Soviet objectives would be substantially as follows: (a) deliveries of German plant reparations and reparations from current production; (b) the Soviet concept of demilitarization of Germany; (c) the formation of a national German Government; (d) a peace treaty for Germany; and ( e) four-power control of the Ruhr. S. TRUMAN ARGHIVES NATIONAL RECURDS SERVICE" AND Although the USSR would, during the early stages of the discussion, press vigorously for western concessions GOVER EX on all of the foregoing points in order to create for itself the strongest possible bargaining position, it is believed that it would be willing to settle for considerably more modest terms, because of its longer range and more important objective of having a voice in the government of all of Germany as well as in the councils of the Western European nations. Such minimum Soviet terms will DECLASSIFIED Aut 0 ly NLT- 76.15 TOP SECRET By He NLT Date 10-4-77