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The President
- 3 -
6-2-61
probability that meaningful nuclear tests up to
150 TNT kilotons in size could cause an earth tremor
seismic recording of less than 4.75 degrees. Such a
recording, being below the threshold of 4.75 degrees
would not be in the category which would qualify for
inspection, as outlined in the United States' proposal.
The fact that our proposal does not and can not, with
present detection apparatus, protect us from surrepti-
tious testing in the wide range of small coupled shots
and large decoupled shots constitutes a basic weakness
in our position. We view this point with grave con-
cern based particularly on the growing scientific
opinion that quantum improvement of seismological de-
tection apparatus is unlikely.
3. New U. S. Proposals on Number of Inspections
Mr. Dean discussed this proposal with the Joint Com-
mittee in advance and we had no objection to it. How-
ever, we do believe that it is important for us not to
surrender the escalation factor (one additional in-
spection for every five tremors registering 4.75 or
more, above the first sixty tremors) and allow the
basic inspection figure of 12 to become the maximum in-
spection figure.
4. Time Factor
An important factor to keep in mind is that we have had
a voluntary moratorium on all tests for two and one-half
years. We face additional months of negotiation. If
a treaty is finally signed, our proposal requires three
more years of moratorium, banning all tests, from the
date of the treaty signature. If the Soviet tactic is
to obtain a test ban without controls for five and one-
half years or more, then they will have succeeded.
Our Committee recognizes that we are faced in Geneva with a difficult
situation. The original Conference of Experts at Geneva in August,
1958, advanced a formula of test detection based on one nuclear ex-
plosion in one type of earth formation. Two subsequent underground
nuclear explosions proved the fallacy of their formula. In the mean-
time our negotiators had publicly taken a position based on the fal-
lacious formula. In retrospect this inexcusable blunder of formulating
criteria based solely on one experiment has plagued our negotiators
down to the present time. The Soviets, because it is to their advantage
CONFIDENTIAL
Document source description
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"ocrText": "8\nThe President\n- 3 -\n6-2-61\nprobability that meaningful nuclear tests up to\n150 TNT kilotons in size could cause an earth tremor\nseismic recording of less than 4.75 degrees. Such a\nrecording, being below the threshold of 4.75 degrees\nwould not be in the category which would qualify for\ninspection, as outlined in the United States' proposal.\nThe fact that our proposal does not and can not, with\npresent detection apparatus, protect us from surrepti-\ntious testing in the wide range of small coupled shots\nand large decoupled shots constitutes a basic weakness\nin our position. We view this point with grave con-\ncern based particularly on the growing scientific\nopinion that quantum improvement of seismological de-\ntection apparatus is unlikely.\n3. New U. S. Proposals on Number of Inspections\nMr. Dean discussed this proposal with the Joint Com-\nmittee in advance and we had no objection to it. How-\never, we do believe that it is important for us not to\nsurrender the escalation factor (one additional in-\nspection for every five tremors registering 4.75 or\nmore, above the first sixty tremors) and allow the\nbasic inspection figure of 12 to become the maximum in-\nspection figure.\n4. Time Factor\nAn important factor to keep in mind is that we have had\na voluntary moratorium on all tests for two and one-half\nyears. We face additional months of negotiation. If\na treaty is finally signed, our proposal requires three\nmore years of moratorium, banning all tests, from the\ndate of the treaty signature. If the Soviet tactic is\nto obtain a test ban without controls for five and one-\nhalf years or more, then they will have succeeded.\nOur Committee recognizes that we are faced in Geneva with a difficult\nsituation. The original Conference of Experts at Geneva in August,\n1958, advanced a formula of test detection based on one nuclear ex-\nplosion in one type of earth formation. Two subsequent underground\nnuclear explosions proved the fallacy of their formula. In the mean-\ntime our negotiators had publicly taken a position based on the fal-\nlacious formula. In retrospect this inexcusable blunder of formulating\ncriteria based solely on one experiment has plagued our negotiators\ndown to the present time. The Soviets, because it is to their advantage\nCONFIDENTIAL"
}