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Copy of memo from Colson to Magruder and Flemming re: Illinois political situation. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/9/1971
Transcript of conversation between Colson and Dave Bradshaw re: Illinois political situation, state tickets. Includes some handwritten marks. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 12/6/1971
From Colson to Haldeman re: conversation between Lou Harris and Larry O'Brien about '72 Democratic prospects, presidential candidates, strategy. Colson suggests response strategies. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/5/1971
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This file contains:
Copy of memo from Colson to Magruder and Flemming re: Illinois political situation. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/9/1971
Transcript of conversation between Colson and Dave Bradshaw re: Illinois political situation, state tickets. Includes some handwritten marks. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 12/6/1971
From Colson to Haldeman re: conversation between Lou Harris and Larry O'Brien about '72 Democratic prospects, presidential candidates, strategy. Colson suggests response strategies. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/5/1971
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4
5
12/9/1971
Campaign
Memo
Copy of memo from Colson to Magruder and
Flemming re: Illinois political situation. 4
pgs.
4
5
12/6/1971
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of conversation between Colson
and Dave Bradshaw re: Illinois political
situation, state tickets. Includes some
handwritten marks. 4 pgs.
4
5
8/5/1971
Campaign
Memo
Memo from Colson to Haldeman re:
conversation between Lou Harris and Larry
O'Brien about '72 Democratic prospects,
presidential candidates, strategy. Colson
suggests response strategies. 3 pgs.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Page 1 of 1
Pol. misc 12
December 9, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JEB MAGRUDER
HARRY FLEMMING
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
SUBJECT:
Illinois Political Situation
I have just had an interesting report from a Democrat in Illinois
who I regard very highly. He tells me the following with respect
to the Illinois state ticket. He prefaced his remarks by saying
that he has known all candidates except one, the new position of
Comptroller, for 15 to 20 years so has had relatively good exposure
to the situation.
Doesn't think Roman Pucinski who is on the Democratic ticket
can beat Percy, but that he will probably give him a better race
than anybody else. They are each going to be eating into the other
and they're going to cause a lot of crossing back and forth. Obviously
Percy is going to be able to eat in to certain liberal elements over on
the Democratic side; on the other hand, Pucinski, both in his voting
record and in a lot of things he's done back here, is going to get over
and eat into the Republican side, on the conservative, because that's
about where he's been. Pucinski's been kind of somewhat of a Percy
to the Democratic side of the fence, but he's doing a very low key
job as far as remarks go so far as television, playing it very smart.
First keep in mind that he's a former newspaper man, having worked at
one time with the Chicago Sun Times, so he's probably going to get
all the newspapers, even possibly the Tribune, because he's been in
very good shape with them. But secondly, he knows how to handle the
press and he's been getting good press lately and coming on television
with a very subdued, underdog approach which is coming over very well
out here.
Paul Simon, who's the Lt. Gov, is the guy that will probably beat Ogilvie
badly. The Sun Times poll in Chicago, taken about a month ago, shows
Ogilvie way under him everywhere, including the 30 townships which are
so important in Cook County. He is a very strong candidate.
2.
Neil Hardian, who's the candidate for Lt. Gov. is a very youthful
guy. He used to be AA to Daly, he is now the ward committeeman
in the 49th Ward on the Northside of Chicago. He's a very affable
guy, young, he handles himself well. He's on the ticket because
obviously Simon is not really a Daly man and Daly has put Hardigan
in Paul's back pocket to watch the store down in Springfield and,
keep him advised of the premises. Hardigan is a good candidate.
The Attorney General slot went to a guy by the name of Tommy Lyons.
Lyons is a State Senator. He was first elected in about '64 out in
the Northwest side, was defeated the next time out, came back again
and was reelected. He's done a good job in the Senate, is the son of
a former well-known police captain in Chicago and is an affable guy
and a reasonably good lawyer. It is doubted very much that he can
beat Bill Scott. Assuming that Scott is told to run for Attorney General,
and doesn't go up and run for Congress in the new 10th District.
But, Scott is strong, he's got the ecology issue, he's used it well,
hasn't made any mistakes and Scott's strong point is that he knows he's
not a good lawyer and he's hired in good talent. As it stands now, Scott
would certainly beat him.
At the Secretary of State level is Mike Howlett. Howlett is in his 50s,
he's been 3 terms auditor of Illinois on the Democratic side, he is
probably one of the best known politicians this state has ever had. The
day he was first elected in 1960, the next day he started out downstate
making speeches and he's never stopped. He wanted to be Governor,
he knew he wasn't going to get it and he's a very, very strong candidate.
It is doubted whether any Republican could beat him for Secretary of
State. Now they are talking about putting Kohorski up which is probably
a bad mistake, but that's the way Ogilvie's going; Howlett ought to take
him easy. Allen Dixon and Kohorski ran against each other for Illinois
State Treasurer and Dixon beat him, but by a small margin. Howlett
is very well known in Cook County because he's originally from Chicago,
but after a term and a half or two terms he moved to Springfield, so he's
got both the upstate and downstate side covered very well and Howlett
has probably talked in every Veterans of Foreign Wars, gymnasium and
YMCA in the state of Illinois. Very strong candidate.
The guy for the new Comptroller position was put on for Illinois strictly
to give some downstate balance because they are heavy top-side in Cook
County. It is a very heavy Catholic ticket and the balance probably won't
really mean much one way or the other.
3.
I would say that Percy and Scott would survive. I would think the rest
of the ticket would go down the drain. But, I think Tom Houser who is
Nixon's campaign manager, is a very bad mistake. He's a nice guy but
definitely not heavy enough to pull all of the strings together. Others
were pushing John Aldorfer who is assistant to Secretary Stans, for the
Secretary of State spot. Ogilvie wouldn't go for him. Aldorfer would
definitely have helped Nixon, helped the ticket. Aldorfer withdrew
and they then turned around and immediately named him downstate
chairman for Nixon which was a mistake because Bob Blair, who was
the Speaker of the House of Representatives out there and Henry Hyde
who is the majority leader in the House, would have taken a co-chair-
manship with Houser and would have run the downstate campaign.
Bob Blair would have because he's from downstate, Henry Hyde is
from Chicago and we would then have them lead in to all of the House
and Senate districts which would have been the way to go. Blair now
feels he wants to sit on his hands out here and I don't blame him.
All of the candidates on the ticket are well liked. There's going to be
a good deal of harmony in there. No pluses at all. Hopefully the
economy will be in such a condition that Nixon in no way has to tie
himself to Ogilvie. It will be a disaster if he does. Hopefully also,
Percy will need him and he won't need Percy. If that happens it
will be a utopia for everybody and, of course, it indicates what his
strength will be in other states. The ticket is a strong one. There
hasn't been a stronger one put together in a long time.
We must remember, on ticket splitting, that Paul Simon is a Democratic
Lt. Gov. He's the only one who survived in the Ogilvie race and
strangely enough he's the first time they have ever had a Republican
Governor and a Democratic Lt. Gov, so obviously he had one helluva
lot of cross-over votes to him. I think there will be a lot of people
that will vote for Nixon who will then cross over and vote for Simon
and I don't know whether if they vote for Simon they will cross over
and vote for Nixon. It used to be a state where they didn't split; it
splits very heavy now; the machines are prone for that, they're con-
structed for that and this time there is going to be a helluva lot of
ticket splitting.
For instance, that's why people who vote for Paul Simon for Governor
will cross over and vote for Bill Scott for Attorney General. They will
then cross over and vote for Mike Howlett for Secretary of State over a
guy like Kohorski and anybody else that the Republicans would pick up.
4.
One of the big things the President's got going for him is that Daly
likes him and Daly doesn't take any pop shots at him. He likes
him and that's a plus.
Pucinski on the other hand will be interesting. Apparently he swears
up and down that he doesn't want to lose his seniority from his district
and probably what they've told him is that they will put somebody in
to hold it and he can get the district back if he loses, but then he's
lost his seniority. But it will depend on who the Democratic Presidential
candidate is as to how he picks what tact be will use and it may very
well be a plus for Nixon because Pucinski is very, has been very,
conservative out in the district.
Converstion with Dave Bradshaw, December 6, 1971
B:
preface my remarks by saying this, that of the entire Democratic
ticket here, Chuck, except for one guy who's running for a new position
known as Comptroller created by our Constituion last year, is a guy from
down in Indiana, a dean of a small school I never heard of and neither did
anyone else, but the rest of the ticket I've known all of them for at least
15 and some of them 20 years, so I've got some reasonably good exposure
to these guys. Now, Pucinski out here, I don't think he can beat Percy,
but he's probably, will probably give the guy a better race than anybody
I know. They are each going to be eating into the others and their going to
cause, I think, a lot of crossing back and forth. Obviously Percy is going
TO BE able to eat in to certain liberal elements over on the Democratic
side; on the other hand, Pucinski, both in his voting record and in a lot
of things he's done back here, is going to get over and eat into theRepublican
side of, on the conservative, because that's about where he's been.
Pucinski's been kind of somewhat of a Percy to the Democratic side of the
fence. But he's doing a very low key, I shouldn't say a campaign, but his
remarks so far on television, I think he's playing it very smart. First
keep in mind that he's a former newspaper man having worked at one time
with the Chicago Sun Times, so he's probably will have as a former
newspaper man, I'll be surprised if he doesn't get all of the newspapers
even possibly the Tribune, because he's been in very good shape with them.
But secondly, he knows how to handle the press and he's been getting good
press lately and he's coming on television with a very subdued, underdog
approach which is coming over very well out here. Now, secondly, Paul
Simon who's the Lt. Gov. out here, is the guy that I told you about that I
felt would beat Ogilvy badly and the Sun Times poll out here taken about a
month ago shows Ogilvy way under him everywhere, including the 30 town-
ships which are so important here in Cook County. So Paul is a very
very strong candidate. Neil Hardigan, who's the candidate for Lt. Gov.,
is a very youthful guy. He used to be AA to Daly, he's now the ward
committeeman in the 49th Ward on the Northside of Chicago. He's a very
affable guy, young, he handles himself well. He's on the ticket because
obviously Simon is really not a Daly man and Daly has put Hardigan in
Paul's back pocket to watch the store down in Springfield and, you know, keep
him advised in the premises. But Neil is a good candidate. The Attorney
General slot went to a guy by the name of Tommy Lyons. Tommy is a
State Senator, he's, was first elected in about '64 out in the Northwest side,
was defeated the next time out, came back again and was reelected. He's
done a good job in the Senate, he's the son a former well-known police
2.
captain here in Chicago and is an affable guy and a reasonably good lawyer.
I doubt very much whether he can beat Bill Scott. Assuming that Scott,
who I believe is meeting with the President today, is told to run for Attorney
General, and doesn't go up and run for Congress ;in this new 10th District
here. But Scott in there is strong, he's got the ecology issue, he's used
it well, he hasn't made any mistakes and Scott's strong point is that he knows
he's not a good lawyer and he's hired in good talent But I doubt that
Lyons could beat him and I think if, as it stands now, I would say that Scott
would certainly beat him. At the Secretary of State level you've got Mike
Hallett. Now, Mike is in his 50's, he's been 3 terms auditor of Illinois
on the Democratic slate, he is probably one of the best known politicians
Howlet? ?
this state has ever had. I remember the day when he was first elected
in '60, the next day he started out down state making speeches andhe's
never stopped. He wanted to be Governor, he knew he wasn't going to get
it and he's a very very strong candidate very strong. I doubt whether
any Republican could beat him for Secretary of State. Now they're talking
about putting Koharski up which I think is a bad mistake, but that's the
way Ogilvy's going, I would say Hallett ought to take him easy. I would
think that he would beat him. As you may recall, Allen Dixon and Koharski
ran against each other for Illinois State Treasurer and Dixon beat him but
by a small margin. I would think that Hallett who's very well known
in Cook County because he's a originally from Chicago, Chuck, but after
about a term and a half or two terms he moved to Springfield, so he's got
both the upstate, downstate side covered very well and I would say that
Mike Hallett probably talked in every Veterans of Foreign Wars gymnasium
YMCAin the state of Illinois. Very strong candidate. The guy for this
new Comptroller spot was put on for Illinois strictly to give some downstate
balance because we're heavy top side up here in Cook County. We're
heavy Catholic in this ticket and I don't think that is going to really mean
much one way or the other but I would say that Percy and Scott would
survive. I would think the rest of the ticket would go down the drain and
that's how I see it out here. But I think that, you know I've had some input
in talking with Runnsfeld, Tom Houser out here who is Nixon's campaign
manager, I think I've indicated to you, Chuck, I think that's a very bad
mistake, he's a nice guy but definiely not heavy enough to pull all of the
strings together. Clem and some others were pushing John Aldorfer who
you know is assistant to Stans for the Secretary of State spot, Olgilvy
wouldn't go for him, Aldorfer definitely would have helped Nixon, helped
the ticket. Aldorfer withdrew and they then turned around and immediately
named him downstate chairman for Nixon which I think was a mistake because
I had Bob Blair who was the Speaker of the House of Representatives out here
and H enry Hyde who's the majority leader in the House, would have taken a
co-chairmanship with Houser and would have run the downstate campaign;
Bob Blair would have because he's from down state, Henry Hyde is from
Chicago and we then would have got ourselves lead in to all of your House
and Senate districts which in my judgment would have been the way to go.
3.
Blair feels now he wants to sit on his hands out here and I don't blame
him and that to me was a bad move, but these guys, all the pros know
what they're doing and us amateurs don't. But anyway, that's where it's
at, Chuck, that gives you a run down on how that state ticket looks.
C: I ppreciate it. Tell me how this cuts the President or does it, which
way?
Z
It hurts him in that's one of the strongest Democratic tickets I've
seen fielded out here. Number one, all of the candidates on that ticket
are well liked. There's going to be a good deal of harmony in here. It's
no pluses in my judgment at all. Hopefully the economy will be in such a
condition that Nixon in no way has to tie himself to Olgilvy. That'll be a
disaster if he does just a disaster. Hopefully also, Percy will need him
and he won't need Percy. If that happens that will be a utopia for everybody
and of course it indicates what hiis strength will be in other states, but
this ticket is a strong, strong Democratic ticket, very strong. I haven'et
seen as good a one put together out here in a long time. You know, there's
always been a couple of spots that were weak.
C:- But is Illinois one of the states that sometimes people like to do a lot
of ticket splitting and if they have sort of a moderate or independent or
Republican, moderat Republican, then he figures well I'll vote for Nixon
because I can balance myself and vote for a Democrat for a Governor, I'll
vote for Democrat for Governor and therefore, you know
B: Yea, well keep in mind this, which is very important Chuck, Paul Simon
is a Democratic Lt. Gov. He's theonly one who survived in the Olgivy race
and strangely enough he's the first time we've ever had a Republican Gov
and a Democratic Lt. Gov. So obviously he had one helluva lot of cross-
over votes to him. I think there will be a lot of people that will vote for
Nixon who will then cross over and vote for Simon and I don't know whether
if they vote for Simon will they cross over and vote for Nixon if you follow
me, but we used to have a state here that didn't split it splits heavy
now, you know, the machines are prone for that, they're constructed for
that and I think this time you're going to have ahelluva lot of split voting.
For instance, that's why you for instance people who vote for Paul Simon
for Governor will cross over and vote for for Bill Scott for Attorney general
I think they'l then cross back and vote for Mike Hallett for Secretary of
State over a guy like Koharski or anybody else I can think that the Republicans
would pick up. But it's a damn strong ticket. Ithink one of the big things
that the President's got going out here is that Daly likes him and Daly doesn't
take any pop shots at him. He likes to cut of his gip (?) and that's a plus.
Now, Pucinski on the other hand, will be interesting. I talked with Roman
4.
ten days ago; he called me on something else. He swore up and down he
didn't want to lose his goddamned seniority from his district and probably
what they 've told him is that they're going to put somebody in to hold it
and he can get the district back if he loses, but for Christ sake, he's lost
his seniority. That's what happened when Yates ran against Dirksen out
here. And. but Roman is a kind of a guy that I think it will depend a lot
on who the hell the Democratic candidate is for President as to what kind
of a tact Puc iinski will take, but it may very well be because you see I
consider Pucinski a plus for Nixon because Roman is very, has been very
conservative out in that goddamned district. And I think that that is a plus
for the man, Chuck, having Pucinski on the ticket.
EYES ONLY
EYES ONLY
August 5, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
SUBJECT:
Lou Harris
Lou Harris rode down on the plane from New York yesterday with
Larry O'Brien. O'Brien talked to him like the old confidant that
he once was. According to Harris, O'Brien made the following
points:
1. The early runners, McGovern, Bayh, etc., are all dead. Scoop
Jackson is picking up some support but is making a mistake by
putting all of his eggs in one basket, i.e. Florida. O'Brien
believes that even though Jackson has Holland and Smathers
working for him, Muskie will get Chiles and Askew and Muskie
will win the Florida primary.
2. Muskie has a big leg up and is improving his lot with the pros;
he has picked up some very effective regional coordinators.
3. Jackson's one hope is that the defense issue will come back
hard. O'Brien believes that in fact it will but he still won't be
able to make a strong race.
4. Teddy is not out of it "by any means". His problem is that he
will have to make a decision next January on the California pri-
mary. He probably, according to O'Brien, will not go in (Harris
has it from Steve Smith that Kennedy probably will go into
California). If he doesn't go in, according to O'Brien, Muskie
will win the nomination unless he "commits a terrible goof".
5. The one candidate over whom O'Brien feels he has no control is
Gene McCarthy. O'Brien considers him a son of a bitch, a
spoiler and a sorehead who is still mad at the guys who did him
in in 1968. Whoever the candidate is (with on exception) he will
stay in and run on a fourth party ticket; he's especially irked
at Muskie and Humphrey and would love to stay in the race if
either of them are the nominee.
i
6. The one exception is if Teddy were nominated; for some curious
reason he does not want to block Teddy. O'Brien says that Teddy's
man, Dave Burke, now works for Howard Stein and this could be
behind it. O'Brien considers a McCarthy fourth party candidacy
as the biggest danger the Democrats face next year. He also says
that McCarthy is a "money" man who will run if he thinks he can
make something out of it, but he won't unless he has financial
backing and there is some money in it for him personally.
7. Humphrey will try but can't make it. He'll never quit trying and
will go into California.
8. Lindsay will become a Democrat in mid-August, but will not run
for the Presidency.
9. O'Brien feels that the economy is the only issue that the Democrate
have. He simply cannot understand why the President has not used
selective wage and price controls. This would cut the legs out
from the Democrate and take away their only issue. He considers
that all the "dove" candidates are dead and that the President has
completely taken over the "peace& issue. No Democrat can profit
politically in the foreign affairs field, but they can win on the
economy unless the President pulls the rug out and does some
spectacular things, which O'Brien feels the President is entirely
capable of doing. As he puts it, "it's all in the President's control.
But, I don't understand why he hasn't done it".
10. O'Brien is not concerned at all about money. He has no intention of
paying off the $9 million debt, $800, 000 of which is owed to Daley
(who is very unhappy about it). The Committee collected $1. 7 million
on their dinner, they will spend it all this year but Strauss is doing an
excellent job and thinks that he can raise the funds needed for a
Presidential campaign next year without any difficulty.
11. O'Brien believes that Texas was a fluke in 1960 and 1968 and that the
Democrats should clearly write it off for 1972. He sees no chance
of winning it but he does believe that they can win Ohio, Illinois and
New Jersey. He, therefore, believes that California will be the
swing state in the election. He thinks that the "Nixon South" is gone
as far as the Democrats are concerned, that they might pick up one
or two border states but that's all and they need Wallace in the race
to deny us the deep south. If Wallace were not in, they would lose
the entire south.
12. O'Brien's attitude is guardedly optimistic. He said as he moves
around the country he finds that the economy is really biting people
and that If the President does not do something fairly significant
and If the Democrats play to this issue alone, they can win, He is
very cautious in his outlook, however, and is extremly worried
about the McCarthy situation which he kept coming back to in the
course of the discussion.
13. O'Brien thinks that Reagan is no asset in the coming election, will
not help us in California and is the most dangerous problem the
President has within the Republican Party.?
From all of the foregoing, two things of significance emerge in my mind.
We should be planning how to encourage McCarthy's candidacy. It may
all turn on one man, Howard Stein. If Stein agrees to go all the way and
bankroll McCarthy's candidacy, McCarthy will stay in the race all the way,
even as a spoiler. Stein is Jack Dreyfus' partner as you know and I
would think that through Bill Rogers or others, we could perhaps encourage
Stein's commitment to McCarthy. Itt would even be worth pumping some
money in.
A second point which seems to me to be very important is the Democratic
debt. We have an analysis of the Democrat's creditors and we should
start on the outside a pressure campaign to force them to pay their bills
before they start spending new money. Obviously we can't get involved
in this from here but some of our business friends on the outside might
be asked to organize a campaign to put the screws on.
You and I talked about this many months ago. It was my judgment then
that we should not try to embarrass the Democrats over their debt or
create public sympathy for the "poor" Democrats, but rather wait until
the campaign was about to get underway and then see that the creditors
put the heat on them. If someone from 1701 were to pick . couple of good
loyalists on the outside, they could start them to work on this now.