Office of Strategic Services - Reports - "The War This Week", March 26, 1942- January 7, 1943

P.S.F. O.S.S. "The War this Week 3/26/42 - 1/7/43 NUMBER 25 COORDINATOR OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK March 26-April 2, 1942 FORMATIC Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. A for the President MARCH 26-APRIL 2, 1942 SECRET Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK As strictly military events receded somewhat into the back- ground during the past week, India emerged to occupy the center of the international scene. Sir Stafford Cripps is seeking to harmonize that country's deep antagonisms in Britain's most recent compromise, but this plan is now seriously threatened by the resistance of Mahatma Gandhi and the All-India Congress. In the Battle of Burma the Japanese are being stoutly resisted south of Prome and north of Toungoo, but their advance toward the critical areas of upper Burma has not been arrested. At the other extremity of the Japanese "line" (in New Guinea) torrential rains have impeded their activity, but recent Japanese air reconnaissance reveals their renewed interest in the islands of Melanesia even as far south as New Caledonia. The continuing lull in the Mediterranean and a fresh analysis of the Axis position there now strongly inclines military observers to the view that no large scale offensive is to be anticipated in that region. The Axis, it is believed, has insufficient strength for concurrent offensives in the Mediter- ranean and in Russia, and will perforce elect the latter theater of operations. On the Eastern Front itself no important changes can be verified, but as Allied shipments to Russia increase in volume, the Germans have launched the "Battle of the Arctic" with heavy initial attacks on the critical Murmansk-Archangel supply route. 1 SECRET SECRET Failure of Indian Conciliation? group and the Azad Moslem Conference, also pledged to While the counter-proposals of the Working Committee of Indian unity, may very well take the same stand. On some- the All-India Congress are not yet known, it is already ap- what similar grounds, the warrior Sikhs of the Punjab, parent that Sir Stafford Cripps' plan is being seriously alleging that the British proposals put them at the mercy of questioned by the most powerful political element in India. the Moslem majority in that province, has likewise returned a Earlier reports that Gandhi and Nehru were in disagreement negative answer. Paradoxically enough, even the Moslem may very likely be unfounded. In an article published in League, long the advocate of Indian partition and the only the Hindustan Times, Devadas Gandhi, son of the Mahatma, major group whose program the British plan seems to satisfy, has indicated the probable basis of Congress reservations. is apparently reconsidering its earlier attitude of acceptance. Young Gandhi objects to the plan because it gives Britain As the outlook for India grew darker, some observers complete control of India's war effort. blamed India's leaders and found them lacking in political Despite Sir Stafford's earlier statement that he was in no realism. Others, however, maintained that the British pro- position to negotiate, observers in New Delhi suggest that he posals had not gone far enough, that they did not satisfy the has postponed his return to England and may very well refer Congress demands for "full government now," and that by the counter-proposals of the Congress party to London for concessions to the Moslem League, they had alienated the further discussion. And the report of a coming meeting party of Gandhi and Nehru. The latter is the only Indian between Nehru and Wavell perhaps foreshadows a compro- group that other members of the United Nations-notably mise on the crucial issue of control over Indian defense. China and Russia-would be likely to welcome for the leadership of India's war effort. In any case, it was apparent that only Japan could profit by further doubts and delays Character of the British Plan in settling India's political future. Another possible objection to the British scheme is its major premise that India, far from being "one and indivisi- Retreat and Terrorism in Burma. ble," is potentially a group of autonomous states. The British proposals envisage (1) an Indian Union which would In Burma, where the Japanese have concentrated heavy be a Dominion, (2) any number of other "Dominions" con- air power and where they have recently landed a fresh divi- sisting of provinces not electing to adhere to the Union. sion, the situation is becoming steadily more éritical. The Since a Dominion would apparently be subject to no higher Chinese defenders of Toungoo, following fierce fighting in authority and would have the right to secede from the Em- the town itself, have withdrawn their principal forces to the pire, and since each Dominion would be independent of every north where a Chinese communiqué states the main battle other, India would no longer necessarily remain a political will be fought. unit under the British plan. On the Irrawaddy front, advance British units have This implied division of India was the ground on which the narrowly escaped encirclement south of Prome. Meantime Hindu Mahasabha rejected the plan. The Liberal Sapru Japanese naval units have arrived off the Andaman Islands. 2 3 SECRET SECRET The Japanese also have landed in force at the port of Akyab in western Burma. And reports of native unrest and almost In China itself, the government is apparently elaborating a open revolt bring into focus the tremendous difficulties faced program for organizing resistance in areas under Japanese by the defenders of Burma. control. Already a conference of the Formosan Revolu- These conditions, the reports state, are especially char- tionary League at Chungking has requested that Formosa acteristic of the right bank of the Irrawaddy as far north as become a province of China. About Korea, whose revolu- the Chin Hills. North of Pakokku, native snipers have been tionary movement is not yet widespread or completely shooting from huts and trees at refugees passing by in autos. unified, the Chinese authorities appear to be more hesitant. Even in the plains to the south of Mandalay, the government Aside from a statement by Sun Fo, president of the Legisla- apparently fears the outbreak of terrorism in areas not tive Yuan (see The War This Week, March 19-26, p. 9), effectively occupied by the Allied armies. In the moun- the government of China has issued no specific promises of tainous regions to the north and east, however, the natives Korean independence. are not yet aroused and seem inclined to resist the intrigues Lull in the Southwest Pacific of the Japanese invaders. Meanwhile, as the Japanese While air reconnaissance recently has revealed the presence approach the border of India, authorities in Calcutta have of several cruisers and destroyers and about 15 transports urged civilians to evacuate that city as soon as possible. and supply vessels at Rabaul, evidence of the increasing im- portance of this base for Japanese operations, there has been Accelerated Action on the India-China Highway no notable increase in Japanese troop concentrations in the As British and Chinese troops in Burma fought a gallant Rabaul-New Guinea-Solomon Islands area. At present it is rear-guard action, Chinese authorities were reported to be estimated that in the whole region from Timor to the Japa- marshalling their full resources to rush to completion China's nese Mandates there are not more than three divisions-a new lifeline from India. The building of two one-way "jeep negligible force where major operations are envisaged. The roads"-which light trucks going in one direction could use, disposition of Japanese ground forces in the South Pacific even when the roads were only semi-finished-is the latest has not in fact changed to any marked extent since the con- proposal. Such roads would make possible the inauguration quest of Java. of traffic before the beginning of the heavy rains late in May. In the air, Japanese attacks on Port Moresby and Port Meanwhile, on the principal new India-China road, Chinese Darwin continue, but Australian Air Minister Drakeford and British are speeding construction from both ends of the announces that American and Australian planes now have northern Assam-Burma section (Ledo to Myitkyina), as local air supremacy over New Guinea and New Britain. well as on the section from Myitkyina via Tengchung to Northeast New Guinea, which last fall and early winter Lungling, in Yunnan province. Materials and equipment suffered a record drought, now appears to have been visited originally intended for the Burma-Yunnan railway or for the by torrential rains. According to newspaper reports, the improvement of the Burma Road proper are being directed Markham Valley area has been flooded and the Japanese to this new emergency effort. have been forced to withdraw toward Lae, where they had 4 made one of their original landings. 5 SECRET SECRET Floods in the area between Lae and Salamaua will prove an pilots in the Netherlands East Indies before the war, and immediate obstacle to the Japanese, whose objective in this about 500 planes. Between 400 and 450 pilots were killed region apparently was the occupation and development of a and the planes almost all destroyed. Some pilots escaped, number of commercial air fields already located there. From as did some naval vessels and their crews. these bases it was believed that enlarged air operations against the continent and the Torres Strait would be attempted. Japan Wins Representation at the Vatican The land in this area lies only a few hundred feet above sea level and is readily transformed into swamp by heavy rains. The most recent diplomatic success of the Japanese is witnessed in a press report that Ken Harada, Acting Ambas- sador to Vichy, has been appointed to serve concurrently as Recapitulation on Java Special Minister to the Vatican "with a view to rendering A first-hand report on the situation in Java during the still closer existing relations between Japan and the Holy Japanese assault has now been received. The speed and See." This is the culmination of a diplomatic offensive scope of the attack caught the Dutch unawares, according to going back as early as the first week in February when this account. The Dutch had anticipated a landing at Japan informally requested permission to appoint an emissary Semarang, for example, but not the coordinate landings to to the Holy See, to the astonishment, it was said, of even the the east and west. German Counselor of Embassy to the Vatican. The rapidity of the assault also prevented really adequate This appointment is undoubtedly intended primarily to demolitions. In general, public utilities, telephones, power facilitate Japanese relations with the predominantly Catholic plants, railroads, and automobiles, as well as stocks of raw population of the Philippines and to allay possible fears that materials, fell intact to the Japanese. The American refinery the Japanese would interfere with freedom of worship in the and wells at Palembang in Sumatra were totally demolished, islands. Japan may hope in time to secure the substitution but destruction of the Shell refinery and wells was interrupted of Italian, German, or Japanese personnel for the important by a surprise parachute attack, and Dutch air forces were American element among the clergy of the Philippines, obliged to try later to finish the job by bombing. introduced following our annexation of the islands. Official Official Netherlands sources state, however, that oil relations with the Holy See might also be helpful to Japan on installations on Java, as well as oil in storage, were completely a minor scale in connection with Catholic missions in China destroyed. The naval base at Soerabaja also was wrecked and other occupied territory and with the Catholic community and cannot be made suitable for the use of any warships, it in Japan which, while small, includes a few influential persons, is estimated, in less than two months. Actual rebuilding will notably Admiral Yamamoto, Commander of the Japanese require a much longer time. fleet. Most British and American technicians escaped, but it Ken Harada, now 50 years of age, comes from a prominent proved impossible to effect the escape of many Dutch. Protestant Christian family of Kyoto. His father was at Netherlands sources declare there were a thousand trained one time president of Doshisha University, the leading pri- 6 7 SECRET SECRET vate Christian school in Japan. After graduating from the measure immobilized by the spring thaw-to the Soviet law department at Tokyo Imperial University in 1918, supply lines in the far north. First, a surprise air and naval Harada served in a minor official capacity at the Paris peace attack by Russian forces behind the Nazi lines near Mur- conference. Subsequently he spent many years in Geneva mansk somewhat relieved the pressure on this vital sea- with the Japanese Office at the League of Nations. He was port. To this the Germans replied with an attack on a appointed Counselor of the Japanese Embassy in France in convoy somewhere near the North Cape. Here the Nazis November 1939. claim to have sunk two or possibly three merchant ships (one of 10,000 tons) and to have torpedoed a British cruiser- The Soviet Navy in the Far East with the loss to themselves of one destroyer. The British As the ice begins to break up in Russian harbors in the Far admit-without specifying the time or place-the sinking of East, the Soviet navy attracts fresh attention as a factor in a the light cruiser Naiad. But British and Soviet naval units, possible Russo-Japanese War. It is well known that the engaged for the first time in joint operations, have apparently Soviets have a very large fleet of submarines and torpedo saved the major part of the convoy, after damaging three boats in the Orient. This force might act as a substantial submarines and a destroyer, besides the one whose loss the deterrent to a Japanese attack in this area. Germans have admitted. The Soviet navy is based primarily on Vladivostok. The The crucial importance of keeping open the shipping lanes latter is, because of its proximity to Japanese-occupied to Murmansk is apparent in the fact that the value of lease- Manchuria, the most vulnerable to attack of all Russian lend exports to Russia-a large proportion of which is air- Far Eastern ports. With the help of icebreakers, Vladi- craft-increased notably during the last week of January and vostok can be used as a base the year round. Even if has since risen sharply. Such shipments will play their part Vladivostok were lost, the Soviets possess bases further in Russian resistance to a probable Nazi offensive this spring. north at Sovetskaya Gavan and Nikolaevsk. Finally, they Perhaps symptomatic of preparations for such an offensive have a naval base at Petropavlovsk on Kamchatka. The were the renewed bombing of Moscow by the Germans and a last named is ice-free by early May, Nikolaevsk late in May reported Nazi attack in the Kalinin area. and Sovetskaya Gavan like Vladivostok could be kept open by icebreakers. The last named may soon be connected by Typhus on the Eastern Front rail with the Trans-Siberian railroad and is to be the ter- There is increasing evidence that throughout eastern minus of the new northern Trans-Siberian road which has Europe the spread of typhus has now assumed at least mild been under active construction for some time. epidemic proportions, although these reports should be accepted with some reserve, pending confirmation (see Arctic Sea Battle The War This Week, January 15-22, pp. 10-11). Although On the Russian front, interest has shifted from the conti- native populations appear to be hardest hit, the German nental battle ground-where action is already in considerable invaders themselves have suffered and are known to have brought the infection back into Germany. 8 9 SECRET SECRET In French North Africa and Spain also the number of cases ualties were inordinately high. As a result, the loss of many is considerably above the usual endemic level. In the former of their best trained pilots and crews has undoubtedly area, 2,500 cases are now reported weekly. impaired German first line efficiency. Except for hospital attendants and others whose duties There is, however, some difference of opinion as to present bring them regularly into contact with typhus victims, the first line German strength. The British place it at 4,200 German Army is unvaccinated. Reliable observers believe planes (roughly 75 per cent of the June, 1941, high), with that the Germans do not possess sufficient anti-typhus seriously depleted reserves. American sources believe that vaccine to combat the disease through mass inoculation. first line strength has remained unchanged, and that the The epidemic is expected to continue through April and, Nazis have maintained reserves of 4,200-5,000 planes. according to one source, will reach a seasonal peak in May. The Future Course of German Aircraft Production German Air Strength for the Spring Nevertheless there seems to be fairly general agreement that present German production is between 2,400 and 2,700 Clues to probable German air strength for the expected planes a month. But while the British believe that this spring offensive are given in a study just completed in the figure represents a virtual maximum of production capacity, Economics Division of the Coordinator's office. At the competent American opinion predicts an increased output- beginning of the Russian campaign the Nazi production of in view of German plant expansion now in progress. Accord- planes of all types was about 2,200 a month. First line ing to the latter, the continued importation of foreign skilled strength was 5,700, reserves increased the figure for opera- labor will permit the Germans to maintain the 1941 rate of tional types to 12,600 planes. The total number of planes expansion, culminating at the end of 1942 in a figure of 2,900 in the German air force, including transports and trainers, planes a month. was 23,300. Such an expansion, however, will be possible only if the The estimated monthly production of aircraft in Germany Nazis make no extensive changes in models, and if the British increased steadily during 1941 from about 2,000 a month in do not succeed in effectively bombing Axis aircraft factories. January to 2,400 a month in December. Standardization of Moreover, greater production need not result in an enlarge- models and the importation of foreign labor contributed to ment of first line strength. this expansion. There is no evidence that bombing by the Increased combat losses consequent on a renewal of the RAF has had any appreciable effect on production. offensive, a high rate of pilot casualties (necessitating a Despite this expansion, since June, 1941, however, first line greater allotment of planes for training new pilots), or air strength has not increased. Heavy losses in the Russian developments which would make existing types of aircraft offensive-estimated by the British as 1,800 planes up to obsolete-any or all of these factors might fully offset September 1-may have accounted for as many as 4,300 increased over-all production. aircraft. Owing to unfavorable operating conditions, cas- 10 11 SECRET SECRET The Axis and the Mediterranean difficult. Owing to unfavorable weather, terrain, and com- As winter turns to spring and the Axis forces in the Medi- munications, an Axis army might take four months to reach terranean still make no move, a reexamination of the strategic the Russian frontier south of the Caucasus, even with the situation in that area has become essential. Highly placed cooperation of the Turks. Allied observers now tend to the conclusion that the Axis A fourth possibility-a limited offensive against Turkey will seek only limited objectives in the Mediterranean this to occupy the Thracian, Aegean, and Black Sea coasts-seems spring and summer. Russia, they believe, will be the main the only one that the strength of Axis forces at present renders front, and the Axis probably has insufficient forces for a probable. By opening the Straits to Italian warships, such simultaneous attack there and in the Mediterranean. an attack might aid the main offensive against Southern Certain indications still point to offensive plans-the Russia. It is perhaps toward this that the Axis is directing heavy bombing of Malta, the relative strength of the Italian its preparations in the Aegean area. navy, the concentration of forces in the Aegean area (even including invasion barges), the reinforcement of Rommel in Détente in Turkey Libya. But these considerations appear to be outweighed Reports from diplomatic sources confirm the foregoing by grave difficulties which would be involved in alternative analysis. The Swedish General Staff apparently anticipates offensives in the Mediterranean. no Nazi move against Turkey and believes that the spring First, in Libya, there is not much time to lose. In less heat will gradually bring on a stalemate on the Libyan front. than a month the summer heat begins. Thus far, despite In the Aegean area, according to the Swedish observers, the reinforcement, Rommel apparently has insufficient armored Germans are simply aiming at mastery of the air so that they forces to resume a full-scale offensive. And the monumental will be able to deny these waters to the British Mediterranean question of supply still looms as the crucial issue on the fleet. Even the 100-odd transport planes recently arrived desert front. in Crete are apparently to be used rather for the supply and Second, an attack on Syria must necessarily be preceded reinforcement of Benghazi than for any aggressive moves. by the capture of Cyprus. This would be a much more As King Boris of Bulgaria, after his conference with Hitler difficult task than the conquest of Crete. From bases in in Berlin, adjourned his Parliament until fall, rumor had it Syria, British planes would be far better placed to defend that the Fuehrer was pressing for a Turko-Bulgarian pact- Cyprus than would Axis aircraft to attack it from Rhodes, an indirect way of aligning Turkey with the Axis. In any 300 miles away. The whole operation would probably take event, reports from Ankara indicated that the present loca- more than a month (the capture of Crete took 27 days), plus tion of Bulgarian army units implied no particular threat to perhaps another month to overrun Syria. It would be only Turkey. A maximum of 250,000 men was distributed about in the full heat of summer, then, that Axis forces would be as follows: one division in Greece, six in Serbia, seven in in a position to advance overland toward Iraq. northern and western Bulgaria, and four near the Turkish Third, an attack through Asia Minor would be still more frontier. And a careful air reconnaissance by Turkish 12 13 SECRET SECRET planes found no evidence of aggressive concentrations in the Cooperation between Spain and France in Morocco and Aegean islands or on the Bulgarian border. Rio de Oro in matters pertaining to aviation, and specifically to the Iberia Company, have been the subject of recent Liquidation of Hungary? negotiations. Refueling facilities would be offered to French The tension between Hungary and Rumania-while planes traversing the Spanish territory of Rio de Oro to and unabated-has not yet resulted in any major border clashes. from Dakar, and similar facilities offered to Spanish planes A report from Bern gives a possible explanation of what traversing Moroccan territory. Such a plan would aid civil Hitler may be seeking. In a couple of weeks, the report transport and communication for the French, on the one states, the Fuehrer will "help" Imredy-who, along with hand, with Dakar, and the Spanish on the other, with the most of the officer corps, favors full military aid to Germany- Canary Islands. There are also reliable reports that high to seize the Hungarian government. The result, however, Spanish authorities have shown interest in coming to a will be the liquidation of the Magyar state and its trans- similar agreement for French Guinea. formation into a part of the German Reich with a status similar to that originally granted the Bohemian-Moravian A Critical Election in Colombia Protectorate. Rumania, the report concludes, will recover Since Colombia occupies a highly strategic position, facing northern Transylvania-that is, if she sends the required both the eastern and western approaches to the Panama number of troops to the Eastern Front. Canal, the Colombian presidential election of May 3, which will determine whether or not Colombia is to have a demo- Fresh Threats of Vichy Collaboration cratically-disposed regime for the next four years, is of As Germany prepares for the much-heralded offensive in critical importance. Beneath the oratory about domestic the east, so in the west she is taking precautions of a political questions in the current presidential campaign, the issue of nature in order to insure herself against possible French dis- foreign policy is basic, and is clearly drawn between the turbances. Germany seeks a solution of the French problem candidates. which would meet the requirements of her security and sup- Under the present incumbent, Eduardo Santos, Colombia ply. It is now believed that the Riom trial may be cut supported the United States at the Rio Conference, severed short. Prominent members of the Vichy government have diplomatic relations with the Axis, and deported Axis diplo- been forbidden to travel between the two zones. And mats more promptly than any other South American govern- Pétain may have to bow to Nazi pressure and permit the ment. Santos, a rather weak President, has nevertheless creation of a collaborationist regime, in which Laval is en- tolerated both Nazi and Falangist activities, and bequeathes deavoring to find an important part. At the same time it to his successor a situation of great potential danger to the is authoritatively reported that the Germans will pick their united defense of the hemisphere. time and force the issue whenever they believe it expedient Both candidates for election, ex-President Alfonso López to do 80. and Dr. Carlos Arango Vélez, are of the Liberal Party, domi- 14 15 SECRET SECRET nant in Colombia since 1930. López, a left-wing Liberal, is companies in Colombia than in any other Latin American the official candidate of that Party, and represents the pro- country except Mexico. United States forces in Colombia. As President from 1934 to Nazi activities are effectively supplemented by the work of 1938, during a period of serious economic dislocation, he the Spanish Falange, and the Spanish legation now organizes favored the redistribution of large landed estates, and per- Nazi propaganda. The Falange holds public meetings in mitted the organization of trade unions. His chief support Colombia, and circulates the stock arguments of Hispanidad. now comes from the lower middle classes, the small land- The recent celebration of the four-hundredth anniversary of owners, and the Confederation of Colombian Workers the discovery of the Amazon, in which President Santos (C. T. C.), which includes all the Colombian trade unions participated, was a Falangist project. The Conservative and represents more than 100,000 workers. newspaper, El Siglo (owned by Laureano Gómez), gave ten Arango Vélez, on the other hand, draws his support from columns, February 14, to the text of a speech by José Maria totalitarian elements among the right-wing Liberals, and, Pemán, extolling Hispanidad, and following the usual Falan- even more important, he has the special endorsement and gist line. There is evidence that many public officials are formal backing of the Conservative Party and its Nazi- Falangists, and that Catholic schools and priests are dis- minded leader, Laureano Gómez. seminating Falangist material. Although López at the moment seems to be the stronger candidate, his defeat of these Conservative and totalitarian forces is by no means certain. President Santos, who con- Nazi Activity Continues in Colombia trols the official election machinery, appears, from his news- The election is projected against a sinister background of paper El Tiempo, to be leaning toward Arango Vélez. The Nazi and Falangist activity. Despite the departure of the dangerous possibility exists, furthermore, that Gómez, sup- Axis diplomatic staff, the Nazi organization in Colombia ported by the Conservative upper land-owning class and the appears intact. The present Nazi leader is K. A. von Church, and subsidized by the Reich, may try a coup aiming Wahlert, who is associated with the Pfaff Sewing Machine to reinstate the conservatives in power after an interim of Company in Bogotá. He has recently succeeded Emil twelve years. Pruefert, formerly Landesgruppenleiter of the Nazi Party for Colombia. Pruefert is still active in Barranquilla, and re- Toward the Control of Axis Activities in Brazil mains the propelling genius of the Party. Strong Nazi groups exist in Cali and Medellín, led respectively by Carl Information broadcast from pro-Axis radio stations in Stumpf, manager of the Banco Alemán Antioqueño, and by Brazil has for some time constituted a serious menace to the Walter Springer, alleged chief of the Nazi Party in Medellín. movements of ships and planes in that region, particularly to Another important Nazi leader is Gustavo Gebhardt of the planes along the bomber ferry route to Africa. While the Barranquilla, who publishes the Karibischer Beobachter. Condor and Lati airlines remained in operation, and while the The United States has been obliged to blacklist more Axis embassies and consulates of the Axis remained open, radio 16 17 SECRET SECRET communication with Berlin was difficult to control. After Brazil broke relations with the Axis, certain stations (four were definitely located in the vicinity of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo) continued to send messages. Raids on these APPENDIX stations, between about March 19 and 23, have now appar- ently closed the principal ones and blocked this channel of NATIVE STATES AND POLITICAL COMMU- Axis communication. NALISM IN THE CRIPPS' PROPOSALS The campaign against hostile espionage in Brazil, mean- The Cripps announcement has left somewhat vague the while, continues. Plans for a Japanese occupation of strategic proposed constitutional position of the Indian States (Native points around the key industrial city of São Paulo were States), ruled by the princes. Apparently these States would uncovered recently, and surveillance of Axis minorities has have the right to accede to the Union or to remain outside been intensified. it-whether with Dominion status is as yet unclear. The The German minorities in southern Brazil are in a partic- announcement simply states that "whether or not an Indian ularly unhappy position. Undoubtedly the majority of the State elects to adhere to the constitution, it will be necessary people of German descent, whose ancestors came to Brazil to negotiate a revision of its treaty arrangements as far as many decades ago, are not actively involved in subversive this may be required in the new situation." It is reported activity, nor are they wholly inclined to accept Nazi ideology. from New Delhi, moreover, that Sir Stafford in a press con- Nazi agents, however, are able to bring severe pressure upon ference suggested that he would see representatives of the them. As a result, the older people, in particular, who have people of the States. Such a step would be a reversal of the lived in Brazil for thirty or forty years, have suffered from a previous British practice of dealing only with the princes war of nerves. Lacking information on political questions, themselves, and might imply a revision of treaties leading they have been shocked by Nazi propaganda warning them to more modern and liberal institutions in the States at large. of the intention of the Brazilians to confiscate their property, The new principle of regarding India as susceptible of and to drive them into concentration camps. It is reported political division is obviously a result of pressure from Mr. that fatal heart attacks have increased, and that the increase Jinnah's Moslem League. Such pressure represents a logical in the suicide rate is alarming. The real Nazis and the even extension of the phenomenon of "political communalism." more dangerous Quislings, meanwhile, use lurid reports of According to this principle, representation in legislative secret military organizations among the minorities to camou- bodies has been based on constituencies delimited according flage their own purposes. to religious or other interests rather than determined on a purely geographical basis; that is to say, in the provincial assemblies there are reserved for the Moslem and other minorities a certain number of seats which are separate from those of the Hindu majority, the so-called "general con- stituency" (see accompanying map). 18 19 SECRET First imposed in 1909 in the Councils established under the Morley-Minto reforms, "Communal representation" did not succeed in settling the differences between Hindus and Moslems. Rather it increased them, and since then, com- munal tension has been growing steadily worse. The result has been further communal concessions in the constitutions of 1919 and still more in the constitution of 1935. The acceptance of a plan similar to the one Britain has offered might change India from a single political entity with merely internal conflicting groups, into a number of separate states. Neither geographic, strategic, nor economic factors would govern the change, but simply the social incom- patibility of India's population. On the other hand, it is perfectly possible that the Moslem League, with its program of a partition of India, would not be able to prevent even one of the four provinces with Moslem majorities (Bengal, North-West Frontier Province, Punjab and Sind) from join- ing the proposed Union (see map, also The War This Week, February 26-March 5, p. 9; March 5-12, p. 10.) 20 U. s. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, 1942 FREE TO 75 so as so se 35 35 NORTH INDIA WEST FRONTIER STATES AND RELIGIONS PROVINCE o 300 600MI. PUNJAB o 400 BOOKI. so so BALU- RISTAN SONIAOM STATE 25 25 SIND BIHAR STATE CENTRAL PROVINCES 2 20 BERAR and MYCERABAD 15 15 POLITICAL STATUS NATIVE STATES SORE BRITISH INDIA RELIGIONS HINDU 10 10 MOHAMMEDAN TRAVANCO SIKH BUDDHIST 5 5 70 75 80 es 90 95 PERCENTAGES OF STATE POPULATIONS PROFESSING HINDU AND MOHAMMEDAN FAITHS STATE HINDU MOHAMMEDAN STATE HINDU MOHAMMEDAN BRITISH CONTROLLED ASSAM 57.2% 32.0 PUNJAB 26.7 56.4 BENGAL 43.0 548 SIND 26.1 71.8 BERAR 883 88 UNITED PROV. 85.0 14.1 BIHAR 81.6 14.4 NATIVE STATES BOMBAY 871 8.9 CENTRAL INDIA 88.6 5.7 CENTRAL PROV 84.5 3.3 HYDERABAD 84.6 10.5 MADRAS 88.0 7.1 KASHMIR and JAMMA 19.5 777 N.W. PROV 5.0 91.5 MYSORE 92.4 6.1 ORRISSA 96.3 2.3 TRAVANCORE 62.0 7.0 MAP NO. 421 APRIL 1,1942 DRAWN IN THE GEOGRAPHIC DIVISION ,COI NUMBER 26 file COORDINATOR OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK April 2-9, 1942 IDENTIFICATION ONION STATES 42001 SCHOOL Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. A For the President APRIL 2-9, 1942 SECRET Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK The Battle of the Bay of Bengal has begun. The British admit the loss of two cruisers; the Japanese claim the sinking of 21 merchantmen. The Japanese have struck at both the principal British naval bases-Colombo and Trincomalee. It seems clear that the Japanese navy is operating in force in the Indian Ocean and that a major effort against India is under way. This orientation of the Japanese effort runs counter to certain earlier predictions, and it is believed that it may reflect a decision by the Japanese that a conquest of Australia has become too difficult and that a campaign in Siberia should await a clarification of the military situation in European Russia. Meanwhile the political situation in India, probably reflecting the gravity of the Japanese military menace, has improved, and a press despatch of Thursday notes that a general understanding on the main issues has been as good as reached, with an early agreement between Sir Stafford Cripps and the leaders of the All-India Congress predicted. Elsewhere the Allied cause is suffering serious reverses. The epic American defense of Bataan has finally succumbed to overwhelmingly superior Japanese forces. Marshal Rom- mel has synchronized a new drive in Libya with the Japanese attack on India, but there is reason to believe that this may be a reconnaissance in force rather than a serious effort to invade Egypt. The gathering intensity of the drive in Burma and the devastating attack on Mandalay seemed clear indications that 1 SECRET SECRET the Japanese are determined to cut the last of the potential partition that it foreshadowed. A third point of conflict was "Burma roads" to China. And heavy plane concentration and the proposed postponement of the whole constitutional a further forward movement in the Solomons suggest a south- scheme until the end of the war-the "post-dated check," as eastward extension of Japanese control over the Melanesian Gandhi termed it. Finally-although the press scarcely shield. mentioned this last objection-reports from New Delhi Despite the spectacular newspaper reports of Russian implied that Congress leaders were dissatisfied with a con- success, it is now clear that there has been no change of stitutional convention to which the Indian princes would importance on the Eastern Front during the past month. apparently send personal representatives rather than dele- Meanwhile the Germans have nearly completed their prepa- gates elected by the peoples of their states. rations in the south, and apparently the initial Nazi offensive Two of the groups that flatly rejected the Cripps proposals will be launched in that area-possibly as early as the second -the Sikhs and the Hindu Mahasabha-based their argu- half of April, when weather and ground conditions are first ments on the partition issue. With the two most important suitable. At the same time German military and naval con- Indian political elements, however, the Congress and the centrations in the north suggest both interest in the inter- Moslem League, the defense question was paramount. As ruption of the Archangel supply line and preoccupation with representatives of the Working Committee of the Congress, the defense of Norway. Pandit Nehru and Maulana Azad, president of the Congress, offered counter-proposals-calling, apparently, for a native India's Eleventh Hour Indian defense minister. This proposition they discussed with Cripps and General Wavell, commander-in-chief for With the foe literally at the gates of India, negotiations India. At one point it appeared as though the British might over the political status of the peninsula had reached a dead- offer the post of defense minister to Nehru himself. But the lock when the last-minute intervention of President Roose- final British compromise proposal-evidently worked out by velt apparently saved the day. Reports from New Delhi Cripps and Wavell after telephone conversations with mem- suggested that leaders of the Congress, in consultation with bers of the War Cabinet in London-seems to have been some- Louis Johnson, the President's personal representative, had what less conciliatory. The result was again a virtual "no" worked out a new formula on the critical issue of defense. from the Congress-plus the last minute appeal to President Observers confidently predicted that this latest compromise Roosevelt. proposal, drawing on Australian experience, would provide for a British commander-in-chief and a native defense minister, "Stubbornness" and Panic with clearly demarcated functions. In a week of alternating optimism and gloom, control of In a magisterial address in New York Tuesday evening, Indian defense was apparently the hard kernel of the whole Lord Halifax-a former Viceroy of India-defended the dispute. Second in importance as an objection to the scheme British proposals on defense and partition, and solemnly brought by Sir Stafford Cripps was the question of Indian warned that if the current negotiations broke down, the 2 3 SECRET SECRET friends of India "would not find it difficult to decide where The air attack on Colombo, if it was an effort to repeat the the responsibility lay." This, indeed, was the note struck surprise success of Pearl Harbor by knocking out Britain's with surprising unanimity by the press of Great Britain, the chief naval base in the Indian area, was clearly a failure. United States, and even of China. There seemed to be little Twenty-five planes shot down and perhaps as many more appreciation of the Nationalist contention that historical damaged, out of a reported total of 75 enemy aircraft, con- experience has shown military control in India to be practi- stitute an impressive record for the defenders. Next day, cally equivalent to total overlordship. Vizagapatam and Cocanada on the Indian east coast were the Lord Halifax also stated that if reconciliation failed, the targets. Three days later the Japanese returned to the at- British government would nevertheless "do its own duty" to tack on Ceylon, this time striking against the east coast naval defend India against the Japanese. Nehru likewise was base at Trincomalee. said to have pledged himself in the event of invasion to The outcome of the air and naval battle for the waters "fight unto the death." Despite these brave words, between the Malay and Indian peninsulas-essentially a despatches from New Delhi reported that panic was gaining battle for supply lines-can have a decisive influence on the the upper hand in India. Bengal was seething with unrest struggle in Burma. Last week, American bombers started and pro-Japanese activities. And many British were evacu- fires in the dock area of Rangoon. But this success was ating the Calcutta area, apparently against the wishes of scarcely comparable to the Japanese raid on Mandalay- General Wavell. temporary capital of Burma and the link between the old and new roads to China-which, according to a report from The Battle of the Bay of Bengal London, destroyed two-thirds of the city, killing 2,000 to In the beginnings of the battle for the Bay of Bengal the 3,000 and injuring 5,000 more. On the fighting front, while British have admitted the loss of the cruisers Dorsetshire the Chinese counter-attacked north of Toungoo, the British and Cornwall, while the German radio has even announced a fell back from Prome and established a new line for the pro- Japanese landing on the Indian coast. On the basis of these tection of the Burmese oil fields, about 70 miles farther north. fragmentary reports, however, it is impossible to form a clear picture of the whole battle. Japanese Expansion Continues in Melanesia Intense air activity on both sides formed the prelude to Despite recent Allied air successes, the Japanese are still the main action. As British headquarters denied that the expanding southeastward in the Melanesian Islands. Buka Japanese had landed at Akyab on the west Burma coast, Passage, the strait between Buka and Bougainville Islands in United States bombers, in a daring raid on the Andaman the Solomons, has now been seized and about 500 troops have islands, set fire to a Japanese cruiser and damaged a trans- been landed in this area. Air reconnaissance there recently port. Meantime, according to Tokyo, Japanese planes and revealed the presence of three Japanese heavy cruisers, a submarines accounted for 21 Allied merchantmen in the Bay light cruiser, a destroyer, and a transport, indicating that of Bengal. Then on Easter Sunday the invaders' carrier- further expansion may be anticipated. Faisi Island, south- based aircraft struck at Ceylon. west of Bougainville, also is reported to have been occupied. 4 5 SECRET SECRET Disposition of Japanese Air Forces the Philippines would have offered invaluable advantages. Further evidence of the continued interest of the Japanese And the psychological importance, particularly among in the Australasian area is presented by the estimated dis- Asiatic peoples, of the successful joint resistance of American position of their air forces. Including some planes still sta- and Filipinos against the Japanese invader already had been tioned in Java, there are believed to be in the area which outstanding. extends through the Sunda Islands, Timor, Amboina, New Guinea and New Britain more than 700 "operational" planes-first-line planes available for operations. This num- China's Diplomatic Offensive ber is estimated to include nearly one-fourth of Japan's One of the most striking developments of the post-Singa- operational fleet. Some 225 or more planes are thought to be pore world has been China's coming of age as a great power, in the New Guinea area alone (compared with only about 325 according to one close observer of the Chinese scene. This in Burma). Available in Manchuria for possible operations was implicit in China's becoming an ally of the Anglo-Saxon against Soviet Siberian forces there may be fewer than 300 nations on December 8. But at that time Singapore still planes-a force which is considerably inferior to the known remained the tangible symbol of British sea-power in Asia strength of the Russians in that area. and of the "unequal" treaties in China, which they had endured for exactly a century (1842-1942). Hence the fall of Singapore has had repercussions in diplomacy which are hardly less profound than those in military strategy. As End of the Battle of Bataan never before in modern history, Nationalist China is now on In the face of a Japanese offense in great force, American her own, our observer continues. In this exposed and danger- resistance apparently has finally collapsed. The east flank ous position the Chungking Government has been stimulated of the Bataan lines was enveloped, according to a spe- to take the diplomatic offensive on a world scale. cial communiqué of the War Department, and a counter- attack with physically exhausted troops failed. Earlier it was reported that the Japanese, using tanks as well as Chinese Representation in Washington artillery fire and aerial bombardment, had thrown fresh reserves into the fighting, and that both sides were suffering The inauguration of the Pacific War Council at Washington heavy losses. on April 1 was a victory for China quite as much as for the The heroic defense of Bataan has won the unstinted British Dominions, according to the same source. The in- admiration of enemy and friend alike. But its loss will clusion of Dr. T. V. Soong (although seated farthest from be severely felt. At least four divisions of Japanese troops the President) appears to vindicate the unusual and inventive have been contained there by a much smaller group of move last December by which he was made Foreign Minister defenders. As a base for counter-attack against Japan, of China resident in Washington. 6 7 SECRET SECRET Meanwhile China's representation in this city, though still of the prophet, with its extra-Chinese orientation, has in the not comparable to the British, has steadily increased. Ad- past impeded strict Chinese control of the area and might in miral Liu T'ien-fu recently arrived as a naval liaison officer, the future be of use in any effort to shake off Soviet domina- four generals of the Chinese Army are now here (Chu Shih- tion. In India and the Indies, whence thousands of pilgrims ming, military attaché; P. Kiang, ordnance expert; and T. H. visit Mecca yearly, the Moslems form a powerful minority. Shen and Huang P'ing-heng, air experts), and three more And it should be noted that Free China includes most of the generals will soon arrive with the military mission from Chinese Mohammedans; there are 50 million Mohammedans Chungking. in Kansu and Yünnan provinces. A national Moslem conference of representatives from China in India 16 provinces convened in Chungking on March 30. Pai Chung-hsi, a leading Mohammedan as well as outstanding The delivery of a private message by special messenger military commander, was made chairman and in a rousing from Chiang Kai-shek to Pandit Nehru on April 3 witnessed speech called upon the "60 million" Moslems of China to band China's continued interest in the Indian political crisis. It together in the cause of "resistance and reconstruction" is appropriate that the new Chinese commissioner to India, (K'ang-chan chien-kuo). Shen Shih-hua, whose appointment was announced on March 31, should be a transportation expert of long experience in the Ministry of Communications. According to a Chinese German Preparations for an Offensive in Russia press despatch of April 3 from Chungking, the Central For approximately a month there have been no real changes Executive Committee of the Kuomintang has decided to on the Russian front. Competent American observers, who send a delegation to India in the near future. have consistently stressed the fact that the Soviet counter- offensive this winter succeeded in wresting no vital strong China and Islam points from German control, now believe that there is little likelihood of any further Russian gains. Recent newspaper Equally important, though less publicized, has been stories-such as the accounts of "fierce fighting" in the China's activity in the Moslem world. A treaty with Iraq, Donets and Kalinin sectors-printed with banner headlines negotiations with Iran, and the sending of a Turkish chargé and then a day or two later quietly dropped without sequel d'affaires to Chungking, have been followed by the recent an- or confirmation, seem to be frequently the joint product of nouncement that China and Egypt are exchanging ministers. journalistic bull-sessions, working on the flimsiest evidence. The importance of Islam to China is hardly recognized in The initiative on the Russian front will apparently soon be the west. Just as the Arab world for centuries intervened in German hands. It seems unlikely that there will be between China and Europe, 80 today the Mohammedans of further movement of any magnitude until the Nazis choose Malaysia, India, and Sinkiang hold strategic positions in to launch a spring offensive. Already in the south their Chinese foreign relations. In the case of Sinkiang the religion preparations are reported to be nearly complete. Since the 8 9 SECRET SECRET first week in February, heavily loaded trains have been carry- lines of supply could actively maintain might fall to as low ing back to Russia, rested and reequipped, the German as 20-30. divisions that have been spending the winter in occupied Under these conditions, the strategy envisaged above- France, central Germany, or central Poland. Many of them turning north against the rear of the defenders of Moscow- are apparently already in their concentration areas. Others might prove extraordinarily difficult. Meantime the Rus- are traveling by rail, unimpeded by the spring thaw, to within sians would have an opportunity to disrupt Nazi plans by a perhaps 100 to 150 miles of their destination. From there on simultaneous attack from the north. Despite all these to the concentration areas the distance is short enough so difficulties, the destruction of the Red Army this year would that the mud of the Ukraine presents no insuperable barrier. appear to be an essential part of German strategy. And it is To a large extent, then, the Nazi armies are already poised, difficult to see how the Nazis could accomplish this without ready to strike when the ground dries and other conditions are extensive operations on the central and northern fronts. favorable-perhaps as early as the second half of April in the south, and possibly a month thereafter in the Moscow area. It is impossible, of course, to predict just what the German Civilian Conditions in Russia strategy may be. Observers concur, however, in forecasting Reports from Kuibyshev are at length beginning to reveal a main attack to the south. Moreover, in the region about the extent of civilian suffering in Russia this winter. Ac- Moscow, which the Russians will evidently spare nothing to cording to what purports to be an official tabulation, 650,000 hold, and whose entrenchments to the west they have been people starved to death during two winter months in Lenin- strengthening, it is highly probable that the Nazis will grad alone. And in Moscow bread, herring, and pickles launch a holding attack, in an effort to immobilize the sub- issued on civilian ration cards have apparently given a bare stantial reserves concentrated there. And it is not impossible minimum of subsistence. that, after a break through to the south, the German army The result seems to have been a slight slump in the morale will strike suddenly north to take the defenders of Moscow of the capital. The renewal of German air attacks, limita- in the rear. tions on the use of fuel gas, and the frequent interruption of electricity have also contributed to the difficulties of life in Moscow. And shortages of coal for heating and of soap in Limitations to German Strategy Moscow and in Kuibyshev have contributed to dangerously Supply lines in southern Russia would, however, limit the insanitary conditions. initial force to about 100 divisions. The railway net behind the present German positions could continuously maintain about 60 divisions, plus perhaps 40 more to be supplied (for Ordeal in Malta a maximum of two months) from stores held in reserve this On Malta, whose air-raid shelters, dug out of the rock, are winter. But as the German army entered the Caucasus said to be able to withstand a direct hit and to give refuge to area, the number of divisions that their greatly extended the entire civilian population, air attacks continued with un- 10 11 SECRET SECRET abated intensity. During the week ending April 4, there At the same time the intense aerial activity resulting in were 53 air raid warnings, more than 100 civilian casualties, serious damage to the Matford Plant at Poissy, and the and more than 65 enemy aircraft destroyed or damaged. British raid on Saint Nazaire appear to have indicated to the In Libya, Axis columns were apparently advancing from Germans the desirability of maintaining larger troop con- Martuba, Bomba, and Mekili. Press reports jumped to the centrations in France. The Matford plant, a subsidiary of the conclusion that this was Rommel's long-awaited spring offen- Ford Motor Company, is reported in despatches from London sive. But a report from Cairo pointing out that the Axis to have been producing twenty trucks a day for the use of the would hesitate to launch a full-scale attack in the face of German army. Before the war it manufactured light auto- existing British strength, suggested that the present move- mobiles. Ford officials are reported to have had no contact ment might be no more than a reconnaissance in force. Mean- with the Matford plant since the fall of France in June, 1940. time, in the Levant area, an increase in Axis U-boat activity and the threat of surface raiding added to tension in Syria. Current French Industrial Contribution to Germany Fresh Nazi attempts to recruit French labor for work in German industry are reported. Proposals have been made to More British Bombs for Nazi War Production in France Pétain in this connection, and inducements of higher wages Contrary to somewhat sensational reports in the press and better living conditions are being made to workers, regarding internal changes in France, there is reason to some of which, according to reliable reports, have been meet- believe that Marshal Petain finds Laval no more a solution ing lately with greater success. At the same time, there are for the French problem than does Hitler himself, but at the reports of increased production in France to meet the needs same time there are repeated reports that changes may still of the German war economy. The manufacture of tools and occur in the Vichy cabinet. The Germans have apparently other machinery has been increased, the construction of also been impressed with the difficulties of any radical freight cars for the German Army is "sufficient and regular," solution of the political situation, such as total occupation and in the textile industries a very large percentage is sup- of the country, just on the eve of the opening of the spring plied to Germany. Leather, wood, and food stuffs, to campaign in Russia. mention a few, continue to be commanded for German use The inability of the press and radio in Vichy and Paris to in large amounts. arouse the anger of the French people at repeated British bombings is a disappointment to the Vichy Minister of Japanese Pressure on Vichy Propaganda as well as to Goebbels, it is reported. And it Japan is now attempting to take over in one form or is to be noted that the press of unoccupied France has shown another 100,000 tons of Vichy French shipping now in Indo- considerably more restraint in treating the current bombings China. There have been suggestions that a "local agree- than when-in violent invective-it dealt with the raid on ment" between the French in Indo-China and the Japanese, the Renault factories near Paris March 3. might be reached as an alternative to immediate Japanese 12 13 SECRET SECRET seizure. This agreement would provide that these ships. Reservations on Padilla continue to fly the French flag and be manned by French The United-States-Mexican agreement, negotiated in officers and crews, but that they operate nevertheless Washington on Tuesday by Ezequiel Padilla, the Mexican between ports under Japanese control, with the exception of foreign minister, to stimulate Mexican war industry and re- a line between Indo-China and the island of Madagascar, habilitate her railways, is an important step forward in now controlled by the Vichy French. hemisphere economic development and defense. Padilla is Following the announcement by the State Department continuing in the role which he established for himself at the regarding the status of the Free French in the Pacific, a Rio Conference, where he spoke with a decisive pro-demo- similar announcement has now provided for the establish- cratic accent. ment of a United States Consulate General in Free French One observer points out, nevertheless, that the efforts of Africa. the daily and weekly press in the United States to "build up" Padilla as the "symbol of the coming of age of the American republics" and as the future president of Mexico are Japan Becomes "Protector" of the Catholics unfortunate. Padilla is an able civil servant but has no popu- The recent diplomatic accord between Japan and the lar following in Mexico. Mexicans might well receive the Vatican has already been put to extensive use by the Axis impression, therefore, that the United States was attempting in radio propaganda beamed to Latin America. The new to foist a president on them. Such an impression, embroi- agreement is obviously being used, particularly by Catholic dered by Axis propaganda, could intensify normal Mexican Italy, in an effort to make Japan more "palatable" from a resentment at alien interference in their politics and thus religious point of view to Catholic Latin America, and to jeopardize the current cordiality between Mexico and the increase distrust of "Protestant" Great Britain and the United States, our observer concludes. United States. This Axis propaganda now claims the Papal blessing for its cause in general, and especially for Japan, which is alleged to have assumed the role of "protector" of the Catholics in the Far East. Meantime on the diplomatic front, there were indications that the Vatican was doing its best to counteract the impres- sion created by the establishment of relations with Japan. The Papal government has apparently not only accepted but even urged on China the sending of a similar representative. There is in China an organized group of more than two and a half million Catholic converts. SECRET SECRET Students of public opinion to whom this evidence has been submitted warn against overemphasizing the decline in APPENDIX I British morale as evidenced in the two attitudes character- BRITISH OPINION IN TRANSITION izing this wave of depression-bewilderment and irritation. The sacrifices, tension, and effort of the British people during Various reports of well-placed observers picture a significant the Battle of Britain were tremendous, tending to obscure change in public sentiment in Britain over the past few weeks. mistakes and inefficiency, which now loom large. The The episodes at Singapore and in the Channel apparently psychological effect of the inevitable let-down is now simply contributed to a public depression which appears to some manifesting itself in a harvest of complaints. Bewilderment observers to be verging almost on apathy. The average man's over the blows sustained in areas long thought to be invul- belief in the impregnability of the Empire has rested upon the nerable adds to these complaints. assumption that these two naval strongholds were under These commentators point out that there is as yet little secure British control, but the fall of Singapore and the evidence suggesting a deep-seated downward turn in British Scharnhorst-Gneisenau dash through the Channel profoundly morale. The search for more active and successful leader- altered this view, according to these reports. ship, already manifest in the appointment of Cripps and One observer who had talked widely with all classes of Lyttleton; the demand for greater self-sacrifice; for an imme- people, and particularly with those concerned in gauging diate "second front"-all are indicative rather of a basic public opinion, declares that the post-Dunkirk spirit can be morale which has not undergone serious deterioration. revived only if an immediate threat of danger returns or if a tangible "cause" appears. According to this view, the man in the street-no longer fired by the old slogans-sees no real British Attitude Toward the United States and Russia prospect of a changed world worth fighting for, and he British sentiment toward the United States has undergone regards the status quo as an insufficient incentive to victory. many changes since the beginning of the war. According to Another observer, who notes a "certain brightening" in observers in Britain, the initial reaction of gratitude in 1939 the public attitude as a result chiefly of MacArthur's appoint- changed gradually to irritation over our tardiness in taking ment in the Far East, nevertheless declares that there are an active, armed part in the struggle. Russia then began to some quarters in which there is open discussion of the "possi- replace America in the esteem of the average Britisher. bility of defeat." On the whole, however, the public wants Admiration for the Russians continues, particularly for a more active policy and, in its eagerness to contribute Russian "austerity." The Russians are hailed as the through sacrifice, it greeted the recent restrictions on clothing "chaps who don't talk but kill Huns." And it is declared and fuel with an almost "pathological gratitude." If, how- that Britain would win the war in half the time if she had ever, popular sacrifices are not capped by vigorous action on some of Russia's generals and some of that country's spirit. the part of the Government, a swing toward defeatism or There is some implication that America, which is not communism might follow, the same observer believes. "austere," is not pulling its weight. However, the general 16 17 SECRET SECRET view toward American war production is reported to be more Africa, India, and the Far East-sources which have either optimistic than formerly. Criticism of the United States been cut off or rendered precarious. While government now comes usually from a small but vocal group on the policy has tried to minimize dependence on imported food- extreme right, who dread our post-war trade competition; stuffs by reserving shipping space for foods of the highest or from the group on the extreme left, which contrasts our nutritional value (on a weight basis) and by encouraging war effort unfavorably with that of Russia. The British home production, the United Kingdom is still heavily depend- generally are said to be welcoming Anglo-American coopera- ent upon these imports. tion as a basis of post-war stability-cooperation in which they feel Russia also must have a part. As to Australia, that Dominion is now thought to be as good as lost to the United States already. But there is apparently little alarm, and the British in general are said to favor even closer ties between these two "nations." Food Situation in Britain Although food consumption early in 1941 was at a level dangerously low for morale, it was still above the absolute minimum required for the maintenance of health, according to data assembled by the Economics Division of the Coordi- nator's Office. Since last spring the situation has been steadily improving. Lend-lease shipments of evaporated and dried milk, cheese, bacon and lard, eggs, canned meat and fish, and dried fish have made possible also a welcome varia- tion in the diet. The home production program has been expanding, with considerable increases in potato, carrot, and cereal acreages; and milk supplies have been maintained practically at pre-war levels. In a period when the German U-boat campaign is being greatly intensified, however, there is a real question as to how long the present standard of consumption can be main- tained. Before the war the United Kingdom normally imported more than half her total food supply. Of these imports, more than one-fourth came from Australasia, 18 19 SECRET SECRET tember. It is estimated that this route could handle from 50,000 to 100,000 tons per month at the present time. APPENDIX II During the winter the capacity of Archangel is unde- pendable, but the ice is expected to break up about May 10 THE ARCHANGEL-MURMANSK SUPPLY ROUTE AND this spring. During the first World War ships came in GERMAN ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH under icebreaker convoy from Cape Svyatoi Nos but pene- With serious German naval attacks on the Arctic route to trated only as far as the outlying ports of Molotovsk and Russia already under way, attention is once again focussed Ekonomia (on an island north of Archangel). Despite note- on the principal Soviet supply line. The Murmansk- worthy attempts this route proved unusable this past winter, Archangel route is by far the shortest available from demo- which was very severe. cratic arsenals, and it leads all others in capacity. Mur- mansk is ice-free all winter and can handle about 100,000 tons German Military Concentrations in the North of imports per month, barring military interference. The Military concentrations reflect the interest of the Germans present front cuts the Murman railroad to Leningrad a in cutting this vital northern route. The most effective considerable distance south of the White Sea, but a cross line, method would be the seizure of Murmansk and the Russian recently completed, skirts the southern shore of that sea and naval base nearby at Polyarnoe (also eliminating to a great connects with the Archangel road (see map inside back cover). extent the Russian defenses of the ocean route to the White When ice-free, the Archangel route has a substantially Sea). An alternative cutting of the Murman road at Belo- larger capacity, and its railroad link is not nearly so vulner- morsk (Sorokka) would still leave 200 miles of difficult able as that from Murmansk, which is longer, nearer to the country to traverse before the Archangel line was reached. enemy, has many bridges (along the White Sea), and is elec- As the map indicates, the Germans now have in northern trified in the Kola Peninsula sector. The Archangel railroad, Finland five divisions in the line (assisted by three Finnish currently serving both Murmansk and Archangel, can reason- battalions), a division in reserve, two divisions of reinforce- ably be expected to handle at least 200,000 tons per month ments recently arrived (and at present located at the head one way. This railroad is being double-tracked, and it is of the Gulf of Bothnia), one division at Kirkenes, and prob- possible that this project may soon be completed, leading to ably most of six Todt battalions of railroad engineers (exact a substantial increase in capacity. position unknown). Most or all of another German division There is likewise a second route from Archangel-the stationed at Kirkenes, where barracks were constructed for Northern Dvina River to Kotlas, thence by the Kirov rail- 30,000 men, was recently sent to strengthen the garrisons road to the main Russian railway net. During the American in southern Norway. A German air fleet in northern Fin- occupation of this region, following the first World War, land (based on the triangle Petsamo-Rovaniemi-Palojoensuu) 50,000 tons per month were forwarded over this route during is reported to consist of 1,000 planes, but perhaps only 300 the ice-free season, which lasts from mid-May through Sep- are available for operations. 20 21 SECRET German Attacks on the Northern Supply Route To date, German attempts to cut the Arctic route have met with little success. An incipient offensive against Murmansk was recently checked by a daring Russian landing in its rear and there has been no sign of a follow through by the Germans. The 16th German army, whose mission the Russians think was to cut the Archangel-Moscow railroad south of Vologda, is cooped up in Staraya Russa, far from its goal. And the RAF has staged a devastating raid on Lübeck, an important shipping center for supplies to Scandinavia and the Russian front. German Defenses in Norway Meanwhile important preparations in Norway appear to reflect German concern for that country's defense. The Tirpitz, the Admiral Scheer, the Prinz Eugen and other German naval units are at Trondheim. For the protection of the Norwegian panhandle, the Germans have rushed to completion the lateral highway from Trondheim to Kirkenes, and have established mosquito boat bases at Tromsö and Trondheim. Coast defenses are being rapidly completed, but, like the air force, are concentrated chiefly on the southern coast around Trondheim, Bergen, and Stavanger. To man these coast defenses, the personnel for 150 new batteries and 36 coast-defense infantry battalions have been or are being sent to Norway chiefly from the coasts of Western Europe. The southern part of Norway is now held by six divisions, while there are only three in the panhandle north of Trond- heim, excluding always the division at Kirkenes. To facilitate reinforcement of Norway the Germans have erected barracks for four divisions in Denmark, where their total garrison does not exceed 7,000 troops, and have collected 50 tanks there for an armored division being organized for Norway, where none exists at present. A submarine base at Horten, near Oslo, and strong air bases in Denmark and the southern lobe of Norway protect the crossing. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 22 SECRET 4° b " : 12* 4° 20* 24" 28° 32" 36* 40° 44° 48" 0 MILITARY FORCES NORTH CAPE T GERMAN FINNISH C G INFANTRY DIVISION 50007 E INFANTRY DIVISION R varde À MOUNTAIN DIVISION CANALITY BRIGADE VARANGER N TOOT BATTALION INFANTRY BATTALION FJORD RYBACH # Persi Planes PER 68° Life 18° GERMAN AIR FORCE Tromsi (Figures represent air strangth of 33 Long Range and main bases only) Recorn Bombers , Dive Bombers Main CAPE NOS AIRCROME Borto FINNISH RUSSIAN FRONT, MAR 25, 1942 Narya KOLA N RAILROADS 5th 524 METER saust SINGLE TRACK AIR C 524 DOUBLE TRACK 66° FLEET PENINSULA 46° 124 DOUBLE TRACKING - PROCESS 9 Dive Bombers Bodi, 524 ELECTRIFIED ID Fighters 435 WETER SAUSE ELECTRIFIED 4 047 METER GAUSE 3 WHITE MOTOR ROADS Rovenien: MAIN ROUTES SEA UNDER CONSTRUCTION . CANAL Mosicon Toverage Archangel an 7 & 14° S 64° 80 Long Range - You! Receive Bensers 60 Fighters is Cossiol And Planes GULF Onego s # DIN FJORD N 67 to Kaffen . s w Trandheim - RESERVE 42° POSITION UNKNOWN 42" vasso , Paroi & - R B 0 T N N / Kongsha + o Fighters F 40° - 60° Bergen " Lang Runge and Recien Bunden vologée 35 Fighters OSLO S Barks (And Finanga 12 - Petrol Phones with LENINGRAD or HELSING N - D OF GUL STOCKHOLM 18* 14* 10 Fights de & Mandal 4° : 5 16* è 24* 28* 32° 34" MAP NO 422 APRIL 10, 1942 . THE GEOGRAPHIC DIVISION, COI NUMBER 27 file COORDINATOR - OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK April 9-16, 1942 OF FORMATI Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. A For the President APRIL 9-16, 1942 SECRET Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK The Japanese have now deserted more cautious alternatives and have opened a wide attack in the Bay of Bengal, possible prelude to a more extended action in India itself, where Brit- ish efforts at political conciliation have failed. At the same time German intervention has produced a collaborationist victory at Vichy under the leadership of Pierre Laval. These moves are interrelated, although by no means necessarily the product of coordinated effort by the two Axis partners, notori- ously given to the close pursuit of their own immediate objects. If their offensive eventuates in the occupation of such bases as those in Ceylon, the Japanese could then harass vital communication lines with the Middle East, notably the oil supply lines for the Allied effort in India. Such a campaign could be of significant benefit to Germany as well as to Japan. If the Nazis, in turn, can now wrest from Vichy the effective cooperation of the French fleet, then the naval responsibilities of Britain in the west will be substantially increased and her position in the Indian Ocean area poten- tially weakened. That situation would serve the immediate interests of the Japanese. Meanwhile events continue to emphasize the central im- portance of the Indian and Russian theatres of war. Prepa- rations are going rapidly forward for a Nazi spring drive against the Russians. The Japanese offensive in Burma is pushing the British and Chinese steadily northward. And 1 SECRET SECRET on the "negative" side Rommel's offensive in Libya has now Finally, the recognition of Moslem separatism would prove proved to be essentially a reconnaissance in force. Japanese an "apple of discord" in the new India. activities in the Solomons suggest a cautious and tentative "feeling out" process and not a clear-cut and determined offensive. And in Siberia the Japanese have allowed the Cripps' Counterblast initial favorable period for an offensive to pass: the ice will Cripps himself countered with a blast against the "critical soon be going out of the rivers, and mechanized operations and unconstructive attitude" with which Nationalist leaders then become difficult for some weeks to come. had met his plan. A real Indian ministry, as proposed by the Congress, would, he maintained, "constitute an absolute Sir Stafford Goes Home dictatorship" of the Hindu majority, answerable only to It was in an atmosphere of disillusionment that the political party chiefs. A weary Sir Stafford was apparently laying the blame for the failure of conciliation squarely on the discussions between Sir Stafford Cripps and Indian National- shoulders of Indian Nationalist leaders. In this he seems to ist leaders broke up. Earlier press optimism proved un- have represented the feelings of the average Britisher, whom founded, as both of the two leading Indian parties rejected a despatch from London has pictured as skeptical of the the British compromise proposals, and Sir Stafford himself success of Cripps' mission from the start and uninformed as departed for London. to the basis of Indian intransigence. The Moslem League, despite its gratification over the fact Somewhat later, Cripps denied that the United States had that the Cripps plan implicitly recognized its pet doctrine of played any significant part in the negotiations. On this one Pakistan or Indian partition, seemed unwilling to leave the point, he was apparently in agreement with Indian leaders. question of membership in the proposed Indian Union to A press report from New Delhi suggests that the latter have popular sentiment, even in the provinces with Moslem been profoundly irritated by impatient and uninformed majorities, but suggested instead that provincial boundaries American newspaper comment, and by the predominant role be redrawn. The objections of the All-India Congress went assigned to Louis Johnson, the President's personal repre- still further to the heart of the matter. In trenchant form, sentative in India, as the deus ex machina of the whole trans- the party of Nehru and Gandhi laid down the already antici- action. pated bases of its definitive refusal. Fundamentally, India still seemed unconvinced of Britain's First of all, in the interim period before the end of the war, magnanimous intentions. After the collapse of the negotia- when the British constitutional plan would go into effect, the tions with Cripps, Pandit Nehru summarized Indian public Congress found that British control over defense would make opinion with ominous candor: "The fundamental factor today of Indian self-government "a farce and nullity," since defense is dislike of the British Government." Pledging that his would cover "almost every sphere of life and administration." country would not "embarrass" Britain's war effort, Nehru Second, under the Cripps plan, the native states would remain called on all Indians to rise in defense of their land-implying, as an "enclave" where "foreign authority" would still prevail. apparently, that the new situation made India rather than 2 Britain primarily responsible for its own salvation. 3 SECRET SECRET Japanese Alternatives The Calcutta Area In the opinion of a close observer of the Indian scene, how- Bengal would appear to be an almost ideal objective for ever, the failure of the Cripps mission will make little differ- a raid or a troop landing. The British have anticipated an ence in the conduct of India's defense. That is largely a pro- attack on Calcutta from the east just as little as they pre- fessional matter, in which the chief factors are the apathy of viously reckoned on a land offensive against Singapore. As a a great part of the population, an acute shortage of equip- result, they have left the coast defenses of this area weak, ment, and practically no time for improvising new divisions. and in the past they have never garrisoned or trained any Last week the Japanese were keeping the Allies guessing as considerable number of troops in Bengal (see The War This to where they would strike next on India's long and vulner- Week, February 19-26, pp. 6-7). able coast. Despite its extensive docks and repair facilities, Calcutta's The sinking of two British heavy cruisers and the aircraft position, far up the winding Hooghly river, makes it a poor carrier Hermes apparently indicated fairly complete air su- naval base. British fleet units defending Bengal would premacy over the Bay of Bengal-and the formidable strength probably operate from Ceylon, while the Japanese would of the Japanese fleet in Indian waters (including, on Mr. have an excellent anchorage in the Andaman islands. If the Churchill's estimate, at least three battleships and five air- latter seized the Burmese port of Akyab (as an erroneous craft carriers) suggested some sort of major offensive. Ap- press report announced about a week ago), they would have parently the inhabitants of Madras, about a fifth of whom are an air base only a little more than 300 miles from Calcutta. reported to have fled to the interior, feared that their city The port of Calcutta is completely exposed to air attack. might be the next Japanese objective. Strategic considera- Its principal wharves are located in enclosed basins, access tions pointed to Ceylon and Bengal, however, as more likely to which is through narrow channels. The destruction of a to be attacked. ship or bridge in one or all of the channels would seriously The air assaults on Trincomalee and Colombo have already impair Calcutta's usefulness as a port of entry. As a major indicated Japanese interest in Ceylon, British fleet head- railway junction for shipments to China, Calcutta would be quarters and pivot of Indian Ocean defense. Prime Minister the logical place for the Japanese to interfere with supplies Churchill has suggested its limitations as a naval base-at going in that direction. Furthermore, the industry of the least in comparison with Singapore. Nevertheless, a Japa- Calcutta area would be extremely vulnerable to bombing nese attack here-probably in the form of naval action attack. The jute mills lining the Hooghly river, the mines followed up by troop landings-would constitute a major and iron works of western Bengal and eastern Bihar, are assault against a main center of British resistance. Hence near enough to the sea to be vulnerable to carrier-borne some observers think it more likely that such an assault aircraft. An attack on these latter establishments would go would be preceded by an attack on the rich and vulnerable far to paralyze the railways, railway workshops, ordnance province of Bengal, precipitating panic and economic dis- factories, shipyards, and engineering shops of Calcutta, order in that area. which are almost completely dependent on them (see The War This Week, February 19-26, pp. 16-17). 4 5 SECRET SECRET The Population Factor The Japanese Press Forward in Burma In Bengal, 60 million people crowd into an area about the The Japanese drive in Central Burma has been gathering size of Kansas. Undernourished and sickly, about 60 per intensity, and both Chinese and British defenders have again cent are said to suffer from malaria annually. Bitter reli- been pushed northward toward Mandalay. Chungking news gious disputes characterize the relations between Moslems despatches report strong Japanese reinforcements en route to and Hindus; the former have a slight numerical preponder- Burma and the opening of a new front on the Shan plateau ance. designed to cut the Mandalay-Lashio railway far above the Living just at the subsistence level, the inhabitants of the present battle areas. The situation in Burma is admittedly Calcutta area would starve in large numbers if military most critical, and the outcome of the campaign there will operations should interfere with their normal production of probably depend above all on the rapidity with which Allied food, especially rice (1938-39 crop: 7.5 million tons in Ben- air reinforcements can be sent, in the view of close observers gal alone). Bengal has a huge livestock surplus, but the of the scene. One London commentary is reported to have religious scruples of the Hindu population would prevent the gone so far as to characterize the campaign now as little more killing of any cattle. than a stubborn rearguard action designed to give India time Such considerations indicate that the war morale of the to prepare for invasion. people of Bengal would probably be extremely low. The In the Irrawaddy Valley sector, held by the British, the 563,000 factory workers (80 per cent concentrated in metro- Japanese were reported to be within a few miles of Magwe, politan Calcutta) would, moreover, form a potentially danger- gateway to the oil region (see map on inside of back cover). ous element. Observers agree that these workers would be In this area also, a heavy attack southwest of Taungdwingyi extremely subject to panic in the event of air attack. apparently was aimed at disrupting British and Chinese The intrigues of the Bose brothers (see The War This communications across the low-lying Pegu hills and at Week, March 12-19, pp. 9-10) have, moreover, created in separating the two Allied forces. After having been attacked India an embryo fifth column. According to a report from from three sides at Yedashe, the Chinese were reported to London, the grand strategy of their pro-Axis movement is in have fallen back 22 miles along the Mandalay road. One the hands of Subhas Chandra Bose, who recently broadcast reason for this retirement, according to reports from the two messages to Sir Stafford Cripps from Berlin. But the -Chinese front, was the necessity of maintaining a line gen- actual liaison with the lunatic fringe of Indian leaders, and erally east of the British. The map makes clear the difficult the tactical execution of the plans formulated in Germany, tactical problem which faces both Chinese and British forces seem to be in the hands of Ras Behari Bose, now resident in in maintaining secure communication lines across the Pegu Japan. The technique of the Bose brothers is apparently a hills. clever mixture of sensationalism and confusion, as revealed in The new drive across the Shan plateau, reported in news the recent contradictory reports of Subhas' death in an air- despatches from Chungking, may constitute a formidable plane crash in Japan, just on the eve of his second broadcast threat to the whole Allied position in Burma. Originating from Berlin. 6 7 SECRET SECRET on the northern Thai border, it apparently is designed to separated by the Pegu hills, offer nátural advantages for utilize the fair-weather road between the border and Keng defense by separate forces. But the Pegu hills are not Tung on the Shan plateau before the rainy season begins, impassable-a fact which might readily lead to a Napoleonic then take advantage of an all-weather road, toward Hsipaw, strategy of mountain fighting, aiming to subdue the defenders on the Mandalay-Lashio rail line. If this rail line were cut, in detail. Chinese forces in the Sittang River sector would be separated A glance at the map will show, however, the improbability from those on the Shan plateau and in fact from Chungking of such a venture as that predicted by some newspaper ac- itself. counts-a landing at Akyab designed to "outflank" the Brit- The recent lull in the activities of the AVG (attributed by ish from the west. While a landing at Akyab to seize the air- a military spokesman in New Delhi to lack of ammunition field located there is not at all improbable, an attempt to out- and other supplies) was broken when members of that unit flank the British by a movement of troops across the formi- shot down 18 enemy planes in two days of fighting, but the dable Arakan Yoma range is thought by observers to be highly Japanese continued intensive air activity in support of their unlikely. advancing troops. In Burma and the Bay of Bengal area generally, the air strength of the Japanese, including aircraft on carriers, is now placed by military observers at 700 The Coming Rainy Season in Burma planes-a considerable increase over former estimates. Weather also is an important factor in the Burma fighting, Operations on the Salween River near Mawchi remained but perhaps not so important as is popularly supposed. The on a small scale, although Japanese troops were said to have Southwest Monsoon movement of humid air from the Indian occupied this tin and tungsten center. Military observers Ocean to the land normally begins to develop in May and anticipated no large-scale offensives in this area, either by the early June, but heavy rains generally do not break until about Chinese or their opponents. Meanwhile, Generalissimo the end of May, according to data supplied by the Geo- Chiang Kai-shek has visited the Burmese front, where he is graphic Division of the Coordinator's office. The exposed reliably reported to have conferred with Allied military offi- Arakan district, around Akyab, is subject to very heavy cials regarding a united command in Burma. rains. The central basin area around Mandalay, however, lying in the lee of the Arakan Yoma range, receives consider- ably less rain and in fact is characterized as a "dry" belt. Topography and Strategy in Burma The highlands of the Shan plateau also are relatively dry. The peculiar topographic features of Burma are signifi- The fighting in central Burma already is moving beyond the cant conditioning factors in the strategy of the Japanese. southern delta region where floods would be a more serious Shielded on the Indian frontier by the great Arakan Yoma handicap to military movement. range, whose peaks rise in some places to 10,000 feet, and on Nevertheless, the rivers in central Burma are considerably the east by the Shan plateau, the rich central basin provides extended during the rainy season, owing to drainage from the a compact but deceptive battleground. The two "corridors," mountains. One observer has noted that at Bhamo the 8 9 SECRET SECRET Irrawaddy river changes from a shallow stream strewn with Digboi in Assam probably could supply a service of 400-500 sandbanks to a river two miles wide. But he also notes jeeps running into Upper Burma, but the loss of Burmese oil that it is during the rainy season that the Irrawaddy becomes fields and refineries will seriously handicap traffic from north- most navigable. The number of rainy days increases in May ern Burma to China. and June, averaging from five to ten per month in the Mandalay basin, but this is hardly more than the normal number of rainy days during the same months in areas with The Oil of Burma comparatively dry climates. The evidence available in fact The advance of the Japanese in the Irrawaddy valley has indicates that at no time during the rainy season, which lasts put them within reach of the two most important oil fields into October, would weather alone bring about any con- between the Netherlands East Indies and the Middle East- siderable cessation of military operations in central Burma. Singu and Yenangyuang (see map). The oil fields of Burma altogether have an annual average production totaling The Isolation of China slightly over 1,000,000 metric tons, of which nearly 90 per cent is produced by these two fields. By capturing the refineries The establishment of a defensive line running from the at Syriam, near Rangoon, to which oil had been piped and Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal, through Akyab, transported by barge from the fields in central Burma, the Kalewa, and Bhamo, is thought by some observers to be the Japanese already have virtually nullified the effectiveness of present objective of the Japanese in the Burma campaign. Burmese oil production for the Allies, although a few diminu- With alternative routes from India to China in their present tive refineries are located near the producing areas and might incipient stage, it would hardly be necessary to extend the conceivably still be in use. line farther north than Bhamo to intercept traffic for the Burma Road. Myitkyina (north of Bhamo and not shown on the map) might become an objective, if construction on a Russian Route to China proposed northern route from Ledo were to be completed Faced with the possible loss of supply routes from India, the (see The War This Week, February 12-19, pp. 5-6). At Chinese have begun more intensive diplomatic exploration present, however, if the Japanese succeed in capturing the of the possibilities of a new route through Iran and Turk- rail center at Mandalay, land routes to China via Burma will estan. Last summer, however, the former Russian supply for all practical purposes cease to exist. route to China was delivering only some 50 tons a day in The proposed Ledo-Myitkyina route in the north appears Chungking, roughly one-tenth the amount which has since to have been traversed by jeep trucks and might be useful as been reaching Kunming over the Burma Road, according to a fair-weather road if it could be treated with crude oil from an American observer. Even on the assumption that the the Burma oil fields. Even so, its chief utility would be as a Russian authorities could and would cooperate, routes through supply route to the defenders of northern Burma, if only Central Asia are very long and very costly. The exploration because of the gasoline factor. The oil fields and refinery at of supply possibilities via these back-door routes to China 10 11 SECRET SECRET is interpreted by one observer to be more of a gesture of Resistance also appears to be continuing on Cebu, where Chinese determination than anything else-coming as it does early in the week the Japanese landed an estimated 12,000 after the successive closures of more practicable routes. troops at six beachheads on the island. Some observers an- ticipated that further attempts to extend control over the Civilian Exhaustion in Free China southern and central islands of the Philippines would be made by the Japanese with troops freed after the fall of Three Americans who have recently returned after con- Bataan. siderable first-hand observation in Free China are unanimous in pointing out that, although the farming population is no worse off than usual, the professional classes are suffering Reaction to the Fall of Bataan seriously from poverty and malnutrition. Axis propagandists, including the Japanese, have made In addition, it is said that after five years, Free China as a almost no capital out of the fall of Bataan. Tokyo radio whole is definitely incapable of taking the offensive. Our beamed an alibi to India: the Japanese did not wish to chief objective, according to these observers, should therefore inflict heavy slaughter on the Filipinos. Berlin radio sym- be to keep China in the war, rather than to aim at obtaining pathized with the "poor doughboys," taking it as another her vigorous assistance. Concentrated pharmaceutical prod- occasion to attack American leaders, but making no dis- ucts might thus be just as important in the maintenance of paraging references to the fighting. Free China as artillery and munitions. The British press joined in tribute to the defenders, ranking the defense of Bataan with the long-drawn-out resistance of Malta, Tobruk, and Sevastopol. Pro-Ally journalists in Resistance in Manila Bay neutral Turkey blamed the defeat upon the exhaustion of The defense of Corregidor and its auxiliary forts at the men and supplies only, and found in the ardent fighting of entrance of Manila Bay will continue, according to a message the Filipinos the fruits of an enlightened colonial policy. In by General Wainwright to his troops, "with all the resources Tangier, too, the press pointed particularly to the Filipinos at our command." From bases in Australia, a 4,000-mile who "fought violently" alongside the Americans. bombing attack on Japanese positions in the Philippines has given Wainwright's statement sensational punctuation. After the fall of Bataan, the Navy had announced that Resumption of Activity on New Guinea "most" of an estimated 3,500 sailors and marines had escaped Japanese land forces, operating from their base at Lae on to Corregidor. Under continuous air and artillery attack, the Huon Gulf, appear again to have begun an advance up with as many as 22 raids in two days, Corregidor appeared the Markham Valley, after having been driven back to their still to be able to return the enemy's fire, although the coastal bases some weeks ago by torrential rains. No con- Japanese have claimed that the guns on the north side of the tacts between ground troops of the United Nations and the island have been silenced. Japanese have been reported on New Guinea since the initial Japanese landings at Lae and Salamaua on March 8. 12 13 SECRET SECRET The air duel between Allied fliers and the Japanese in Japan and Russia may clash as a result of Anglo-American Australasia continues daily, with heavy and successful attacks intrigues. Various important Japanese have recently been particularly on the important Japanese bases at Rabaul, recalled to Japan for conferences, including General Aka- New Britain, Koepang in Dutch Timor, and Lae. A direct mato, an expert on the border defenses of Manchuria, and hit on an aircraft carrier at Rabaul has been officially con- the military attaché to Russia with all his staff. And it is firmed. Two Japanese carriers are believed to be operating just reported that Tatekawa has secretly been appointed in this vicinity. advisor on Russian military strategy to the Manchukuo The Japanese have again bombed Tulagi and Gavutu Army. It may also be significant that Japanese broadcasts islands in the Solomons. It is reported also that they are are beginning to contain opprobrious allusions to communist building a small base for submarines at the mouth of the activities in several strategic Asiatic countries. Warongai River in New Britain. Japanese raids on Port Moresby and Port Darwin are less frequent, although the most recent figures on Japanese air strength in this area Collaboration Wins the Day at Vichy indicate that it has been maintained at about 650 operational With the return of Laval as Vice President of the Council planes. at Vichy, the Germans have apparently won a clear-cut vic- tory, although its precise character will not be known until Laval returns from his negotiations with the Nazis in Paris. Quiet in Eastern Siberia It is expected that he will then form his government and With the virtual end of the spring period of favorable clarify the important issue as to what the future position of weather for a Siberian blitzkrieg, quiet continued to reign in the Marshal is to be. that theatre. As the ice breaks up on the frontier rivers Meanwhile Pétain has agreed that Laval shall not only be (usually beginning about April 20), the latter again become Vice President of the Council but that he shall hold the four barriers with gunboat patrols, and the bordering alluvial key portfolios of Foreign Affairs, Interior, Propaganda and areas become so swampy as to prevent military operations on Information, and National Economy. Darlan, it is announced, any large scale. There are a few places devoid of alluvium, is to continue in the post of Minister of National Defense. which should dry up early in May, but Russian defense of Although Otto Abetz, German Ambassador to Paris, was these small sectors should be relatively easy (see The War reported at one time to have expressed Berlin's displeasure at This Week, March 12-19, pp. 21-22). having Laval as the French champion of "collaboration," Complimentary statements by General Tatekawa, the re- the latter has obviously been chosen again by the Germans to tiring Japanese ambassador to Russia, are being broadcast force the issue at Vichy and to remove American influence currently from Tokyo concerning Russian efficiency and and sympathy with the Allies from places of importance amicable relations with Japan. But the Hsinking radio in around Marshal Pétain. Manchuria, which has often (as before the outbreak of the Probably taking his cue from Laval himself, the collabora- Pacific War) foreshadowed Japanese policy, warned that tionist oracle Jean Luchaire, director of the German controlled 14 15 SECRET SECRET Nouveaux Temps in Paris, declared on April 7 that French returned to power, he would fight to get back for Vichy the "neutrality" is not neutrality at all but in reality a tacit Free French colonies, presumably in Africa and the Pacific. alliance between Vichy and Washington. Luchaire also There are also reliable reports of increasing tension in Morocco pointed out that the "new government will conduct the affairs with certain military precautions being taken by the French- of France in such a way that she may take her rightful place in apprehension, it is reported, of what the British may do. in the new European order and derive appropriate benefits Simultaneously highly placed French officials in North Africa from this European collaboration." As an indication of continue to urge that America make economic aid available what changes this "new conduct of the affairs of France" may to that region at a time when economic stringency is reported bring in the French domestic scene is the announcement that to be grave. the Riom trial has been suspended: its scope may be broad- ened so that future proceedings may include "political and military mistakes which led to war and defeat." An Axis Squeeze Play? The full significance of Laval's advent to power must As Vichy gravitated toward the Axis, the fast battleships await the commentary of events. Speculation at once Dunkerque and Strasbourg, now reunited at Toulon, were the suggested the dangerous possibility of fleet cooperation and chief stakes in the risky game of Mediterranean naval bal- the surrender of French base facilities. Certain observers ance. If these and other units of the French navy were believe that the Germans are seeking to protect their rear suddenly to pass under Axis control, the British would face a against the danger of invasion at a moment when they are significantly strengthened naval force in that area just at the about to renew the eastern offensive, and one press report time when the defense of India may demand naval reinforce- declares that Laval will function as "civil supervisor of all ment in the East. France," perhaps even leaving strictly "military supervision" The sinking of the Italian heavy cruiser Trento by a to the Germans. In this connection it is to be noted, how- British submarine, plus the report that both of the two new ever, that the Germans already control the north and west Italian battleships were under repair at Taranto, indicated French littoral, and that only German troops could be relied that the naval balance in the Mediterranean had improved upon to repel an Allied invasion attempt on this area. The somewhat, and that the Italians might not be able to con- Nazis must also face the danger that a violent swing to tribute very significantly to any contemplated squeeze play. collaborationism may alienate large numbers of the French A recently compiled list of Italian sinkings reveals that since people and increase the probability of sabotage and active the start of the war Italy has lost perhaps 44 per cent of her aid to a possible invading force. merchant shipping, about half her submarines, more than From North Africa comes a report that Doriot's Parti one-third of her destroyers, and about a third of her light Populaire Français has received 80,000,000 francs from the cruisers. Although the British have sunk none of the six Nazis which it is to use in propagandizing North Africa in Italian battleships, only the three old vessels Giulio Cesare, favor of Nazism. At the same time there is a report to the Caio Duilio, and Andrea Doria are apparently now fit for effect that Laval has recently announced that, should he be service. Of the seven heavy cruisers with which Italy 16 17 SECRET SECRET entered the war, the Zara, Polo, and Fiume were lost at Cape third on this run. Press reports from Stockholm, however, Matapan, and the Gorizia went down at Messina. With the announced that another Allied convoy had reached Mur- recent loss of the Trento, then, the Italians have left only the mansk in safety. S. A. Lozovsky, Soviet vice-commissar Bolzano and the Trieste, at least one of which is now under for foreign affairs, declared that "all sorts" of war materials repair. were now reaching Russia from the United States. And Admiral Standley, on his arrival at Kuibyshev to assume his Action in Malta and Libya functions as American Ambassador, predicted that the current month would see the flow of goods from the United Last week Malta withstood its worst bombing thus far. States at last equaling American commitments. Evidently the Axis was meeting with some success in neutral- izing the fortress lying athwart its supply lines to Libya. But it was at heavy cost: somewhere between five and ten per cent of the 100 to 200 planes that flew over the island daily were reported lost. Airmen generally consider ten per cent losses as an uneconomic wastage of air strength. And at a time when the RAF has launched a major offensive against industrial centers in northern France and Germany, and when the Nazis are apparently preparing for a spring push in Russia, the losses over Malta may make themselves felt in other theaters of the war. The Flow of Lend-lease Goods to Russia On all except the northern sector of the Russian front the spring thaw had apparently stalled both Soviet and Nazi armies last week. There was marked activity in the Lake Ilmen area alone, where the Germans admitted a Russian break-through. But they added that they had cut the supply lines of the Soviet advance detachment, leaving them iso- lated and without reinforcements. As the zero hour of the anticipated German spring offensive drew near, the lend-lease shipping lane to Murmansk was again the focus of Allied interest. The Germans claimed that they had set fire to two merchant ships and damaged a 18 19 GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1943 Kowle Leshie Helpeg Chilloportis YEMANGYAT, THAILAND AND TENANSYALING Akyab Mague GISLANOS Pylrimana hayetmyo Yedashe Toungoo Prome COMBAT AREA Sittess so an APRIL 14, 1942 100 KILOMETERS ALL-WEATHER ROAD DRY WEATHER ROAD ROAD UNDER CONSTRUCTION TRAIL RAILROADS R.R. UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPE LINE OIL FIELDS FOLDED MOUNTAINS PLATEAUX ANGOON LOW HILLS Moulmein WELF MARTAWAN MAP NO 435 APRIL 14, 1942 DRAWN . THE GEOGRAPHIC DIVISION, 0.0.1 NUMBER 28 file COORDINATOR OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK April 16-23, 1942 LOOK HOWARD MODERONE IDINA INVOICE OF ORGO Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. A for the President APRIL 16-23, 1942 SECRET Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK With Pétain's acceptance of Laval and the creation of a frankly collaborationist government in France, the Germans have won a diplomatic victory of far-reaching implications. In the end it may involve the transfer to Axis control-in effect at least-of the French fleet and bases. Present indi- cations, however, suggest that Laval will move slowly at first, attempting above all to consolidate his domestic position. In the Far East, there is an enigmatic pause in the Battle of Bengal, and the Japanese are withdrawing from that area important elements of their fleet, including heavy units. This may reflect a decision that the costs of an assault on India would be too high, as suggested by the Japanese air losses over Ceylon. Or it may mean merely the withdrawal of carriers to obtain fresh complements of planes. Mean- while the recent doubling of Japanese air strength in Man- churia and Japan suggests an increasing interest in the Siberian area. At the same time the Japanese have again been feeling out the North Australian defense zone, but here their heavy air losses-as compared with those of the Allies-would scarcely encourage a significant forward movement. On the Russian front, the Soviets continue to claim gains, but the best evidence indicates that Russian attacks are aimed primarily at seriously hampering German prepara- tions for the expected spring offensive. Military observers credit the Russians with no advances of importance for several weeks past. 1 SECRET SECRET Pétain Yields to the Collaborationist Tide World War was enough to convince large numbers of people On Sunday last Marshal Pétain asked the French people that his advice should be taken and that France should lay to follow him as it had on the occasion of the armistice of down her arms. His popularity and prestige, together with June 1940. With full knowledge that the assumption of a fundamentally egotistic belief in his own political impor- power by Laval would be considered as nothing less than an tance, permitted such traitors as Laval to gather about him unfriendly act by the United States, the Marshal declared: and to support his political pretentions while seeking to foster "Pierre Laval will exercise under my authority the internal their own personal ambitions. Pétain's lack of faith in the and external policy of our country. It was with him at the cause of French democracy and his defeatist tendencies, as most tragie moment of our disaster that I founded the new recorded by Clémenceau and Foch from the last war, made it order which must assure the resurrection of France. only too appropriate that he take advantage of France's "Today is a moment as decisive as that of June, 1940; prostrate condition in order to force upon her in 1940 his ideas I again find myself with him to resume the national task, and of what a French government should be. This cast of mind that of European organization for which we together have laid has now made it perfectly possible for Pétain, despite his the bases." notorious personal enmity for Laval, to accept a regime The somewhat enigmatic nature of Pétain, and the vacil- pledged to full cooperation with the Germans. lating character of his policy have given rise to justifiable differences of opinion as to his willingness and ability to Laval Maps a Collaborationist Course for France resist the collaborationist demands of the Germans in the past. Now, however, his frank acceptance of Laval, who has Laval's formation of the new government obviously fulfills promptly embarked on a candid program of cooperation with hopes which he has long cherished. It is even reported on the Germans, has destroyed faith in the sincerity and useful- high authority that some years ago (and long before the ness of Pétain. The most striking index to this new attitude collapse of the French republic) Laval conceived an anti- is quite obviously the recall for consultation of Admiral Leahy. democratic regime, to which Pétain had declared himself In future the Marshal is apparently to be viewed as a political sympathetic, and of which he, Laval, would be the effective front for the Laval regime, of value merely in winning for leader, covered by the cloak of the Marshal's popularity. that regime political adhesion among parts at least of the Without the popularity of Pétain, Laval obviously realizes French public. that in the present juncture he could do little, unless he One close observer of the French scene points out that were prepared to seek the full support of the German Army. Pétain's present action accords with much in his past. When In his Monday broadeast to the French people Laval France in the summer of 1940 was faced with the decision declared: "I have always affirmed that rapprochement be- whether she should surrender to the Germans or continue tween France and Germany was a condition of peace in resistance in the colonies, the character and personality of Europe Today no menace will prevent me from seek- Pétain played a decisive role. His great prestige in the first ing entente and reconciliation with Germany." 2 3 SECRET SECRET Only the future can reveal the precise form to be taken by manded the Strasbourg in the British attack on Oran, has been the policy here described by Laval in unvarnished terms. He given the naval command. In Tangier the Germans are has reserved for himself the key posts of Foreign Affairs, planning to establish diplomatic or consular representation, Interior, and Information (propaganda). He has chosen as and are attempting to establish a regime of extraterritoriality. colleagues notorious collaborationists or men who are in any A very recent report tells of the arrival in Tangier and North event fully expected to do his will in realizing the new policy. Africa of "an extraordinary number of Germans" who, it is It is true that Darlan has been named successor to Pétain claimed, are coming for espionage and counter-espionage and commander in chief of all the armed forces, responsible purposes. only to the Marshal. But observers point out that the extent While Allied suspicions have been aroused over plans of Laval's power, notably over the Ministries of War and the regarding the movement of French warships from North Navy, will enable him to exert significant control over the African ports, it is reported that the French are calling for armed forces of France, and probably as a result to undermine more arms from the Germans to "protect" themselves against rapidly the position of Darlan. the British. In Dakar, the press and the radio, through directed propaganda efforts, are vehemently stressing loyalty to Pétain, while from Martinique Admiral Robert claims that his relationship with Pétain and Darlan has not changed. Laval's Apparent Intentions It is believed that Laval will make no spectacular changes Aris Naval Dispositions and the French Fleet at once. According to Anthony Eden, he will lie low for a time to quiet apprehensions in America as well as in France. This week's map presents -in diagrammatic form the Laval probably hopes to mediate between Washington and locations of the naval units in Europe that the United Berlin and to acquire enough prestige in the New Order to Nations must watch-themselves heavily engaged in Atlan- feather his own nest and that of France. He will do nothing tie, Pacific, and Far Eastern waters. Notable are the badly about Vichy warships for a time, Eden indicates, and neither battered but still powerful Italian battle fleet at Taranto; the German naval concentration at Trondheim-threatening contemplates nor desires allowing Berlin to have them. He might, however, use them to protect the trade of France with both the British Home Fleet and the Allied supply line to her dependencies. Laval would no doubt permit Nazi pene- Russia, while guarding against an assault on Norway; and tration in these areas, so that a naval clash with Allied forces the scattering of the remaining Nazi fleet units among nu- might well result. He will foster the transfer to Germany of merous ports of the North and Baltic Seas, cleverly guarding French workers, but is unlikely to embark on so ambitious a against a repetition by the British of surprise torpedo-plane successes such as those at Taranto and Pearl Harbor. Here project as the conquest of territories held by the Free French. Eden concludes. the central question is, of course, what the future will bring Certain changes are already in evidence, however. In when the damaged Scharnhorst and Gneisenau (perhaps along French West Africa Rear Admiral Paul Collinet, who com- with the pocket battleship Lützow and the aircraft carrier 4 5 SECRET SECRET refer when they speak of the "menace" of the French navy. Graf Zeppelin) are ready to join the Tirpitz and Scheer to Meantime, press reports of the presence of two British form a formidable battle line. battleships, one of the new King George V class, in waters With Laval again in power at Vichy, the immediate issue, near Toulon, siggest that the United Nations will not be however, is the French fleet. Here, one can distinguish four eaught napping by any surprise move of the new Vichy separate elements of the French navy, in ascending order of importance. First, there are the units already in Allied regime. hands-or as good as in Allied hands-ineluding the old battleships Paris and Courbet in British ports, the battleship French Alternatives Lorraine and three heavy cruisers demilitarized at Alex- The present danger, however, is more complex than a mere andria, and the aireraft carrier Bearn at Martinique. "surrender" of the fleet would suggest. There is also the Second are the ships at Dakar and Casablanea on the question of bases, notably Bizerte, in Tunisia. The use of Atlantic Coast of Africa. Here are France's newest battle- Bizerte as a base for supplying Axis armies in Libya last win- ships, the Jean Bart and the Richelieu. The former, how- ter caused a grave crisis in Franeo-American relations. And ever, is incomplete (nor does Casablanca appear to offer if the new Vichy government were to turn over all its facilities adequate facilities for its completion); the latter, damaged to the Germans and Italians, the Axis naval and supply prob- by the British and with its bottom fouled, is probably of use lem in the Mediterranean would be considerably simplified. only as a sort of floating shore battery. Furthermore, to Yet the change would not be so great as some press com- join the main body of the French fleet naval units from mentators have suggested. There is considerable evidence Africa would be obliged to run the gauntlet of Gibraltar. that the British are no longer attempting to control the Such a venture, hazardous at best, probably would have to Western Mediterranean. The recent convoy to Malta, for be attempted without the formidable air protection that was instance, came not from Gibraltar, but from Alexandria. in large measure responsible for the successful passage of the Gibraltar apparently remains as a sort of naval outpost. Straits of Dover by the Scharnhorst and Gneisenau. But to neutralize Gibraltar, as Malta has already been largely Third in importance are the vessels in Mediterranean ports neutralized, would be of clear advantage to the Axis. For in North Africa. Lacking heavy naval strength, these units this purpose, the use of the French base at Mers-el-Kebir would be of real significance only if they joined the main (Oran), less than 300 miles from Gibraltar, would be an almost French fleet at Toulon. It is barely possible that the resist- indispensable prerequisite. ance of local authorities might prevent their junetion with Laval's announced intention is eventually to reconquer the the bulk of the Vichy navy in any frankly collaborationist French colonies that have passed to De Gaulle. One observer gesture. suggests that an ultimate Vichy attack on Syria would not Fundamentally, however, it is the fourth group, the fleet only be in line with this policy, but would also give Laval a at Toulon, including four heavy cruisers and perhaps three splendid pretext for what would amount to a surrender of his battleships fit for service-the old Provence, and the new, Mediterranean fleet to the Axis. For an effort to reunite the fast Dunkerque and Strasbourg-to which commentators 7 6 SECRET SECRET French Empire, even though it meant joint netion by the content with the practical mastery of these waters which they French and Italian navies against the British, would no doubt have already obtained. On the other hand, the advice issued fire the imagination of at least one wing of patriotic French- by the government of Madras for all non-essential civilians men. Certain naval officers in particular, outraged by the to leave the city, and the news of increased enemy merchant British attack at Oran, and their fomenting of "civil war" in ship movements in the Bay of Bengal, would point to a con- Syrin, are reported to be thirsting for vengeance on their tra- tinuing Japanese menace. ditional enemies, With the Indian peninsula on the alert, post-mortem state- ments on the failure of the Cripps mission were not lacking. Mediterranean Danger Spots The Chinese press reaction has in general been one of great disappointment, tempered by the feeling that the Indian In Syria itself, a personal struggle between General problem is of such urgency that British and native lenders will Catroux, the chief of the Free French authorities, and General perforce continue negotiations and reach a satisfactory settle- Spears, the British commander, is embittering relations ment. British newspapers see a certain gain from the break- between the two occupying forces. A report from Beirut down of negotiations: now the responsibility for India's suggests that Catroux, alarmed at the fact that the British future rests squarely with the Indians themselves. Further- are more popular with the natives than the French, is about more, the British have won understanding and support from to reorganize the government of the Lebanon in cooperation an initially hostile publie opinion in the United States. with the Maronite Patriarch, spiritual director of about a third of the Lebanese. In Libya, sandstorms during the early part of the week The Japanese Shift Fresh Strength to the North completely stalled military operations. Although Malta, While an uneonfirmed report from Finland pictures German Britain's much-bombed island fortress, last week suffered disappointment at Japanese failure to attack Siberia "as somewhat less damage and fewer casualties than in the expected," a reallocation of plane strength indicates increas- preceding period, its situation apparently remained as critical ing Japanese interest in that area. The number of military as before. In an unprecedented gesture, the King awarded planes in Manchuria and Korea was increased in the first the George Cross to Malta's entire civilian population. half of this month from about 300 to 700, and in Northern China (including Chahar) from 60 to 200. In Japan the Pause in the Bay of Bengal number was nearly doubled, rising from about 400 to more than 750, It is difficult to interpret the present lull in Japanese opera- At the same time seven divisions, which were supposed to tions against India. On the one hand, the report that the have been in Japan proper, have dropped out of sight. Some Japanese have withdrawn all the battleships and all but two of them are thought to be now in Manchuria, where there of the aircraft carriers previously concentrated in the Bay have recently been 18 divisions (12 on the border facing the of Bengal, might suggest that for the present at least they are Maritime Province). In addition, a convoy bearing a large 8 9 SECHET SECRET number of Japanese troops recently left Singapore, bound were reported by Japanese sources to have struck at Tokyo. northwards. It is believed that its destination may be Dairen. And on the European continent there was increasing evidence that the Germans were speculating with some anxiety as to Reneiced Activity in Australasia just where Britain and the United States might conceivably be planning to open up a second European front. With General MacArthur's sphere of authority delimited Reichmarshal Goering and his staff since April 4 have at last, and with United Nations aviators taking the offensive been at Serqueux near Forges-les-Eaux (Seine-Inférieure) in against Japanese air bases at Kupang, Salamata, and Rabaul, Occupied France, according to a report from Viehy. The Allied optimism about Australia was on the increase. Ac- Belgian government in exile has stated that the Germans are cording to Lieutenant General Brett, United Nations Air evacuating civilians and laying land mines in the Sambre Commander, his fliers are destroying six Japanese planes to and Meuse region. And a Swiss report suggests that German every one of their own lost in action. At Rabaul, for instance, press quotations of American and English newspaper pre- Allied airmen destroyed 40 Japanese planes on the ground. dictions of a coming offensive represent a real endeavor to More recently, however, Japanese heavy bombers returned determine where such an attack might come. Here frank to the attack on Port Moresby (New Guinea). Coupled curiosity is n. more convincing explanation than is claim, with reports of decreased activity in the Bay of Bengal, this ostensibly from Berlin, of complete information on "Roose- new attack suggests that the Japanese for the moment at velt's plan." least have abandoned aggressive intentions against India, Wednesday's commando raid on Boulogne has revealed and are again feeling out the defenses of the north Australian once again the vulnerability of the channel shores of Occupied none. France-presumably one of the areas which the Nazis are protecting most heavily. With an estimated 900,000 men Toward an Allied Initiative? to guard the whole European const from Bordeaux to Trond- Thus for in the war, the Axis has held the initiative. heim, German forces for once are themselves spread danger- Operating on interior lines, and able to concentrate its ously thin. strength with speed and a reasonable degree of secrecy, it has forced the United Nations to seatter their own troops The Japanese Radio Reacts to the "Bombing" and naval units over the whole globe-to defend all points The still mysterious American "air attack" on Japanese at oneo and none of them adequately. The result has been cities elicited eopious comment from the Japanese radio, defeats, withdrawals, and defensive actions, Various broadeasts declared that the planes escaped in the Last week there were signs that in some theaters at least direction of the China continent. A characteristic propa- the initiative was passing to the Allies, Apparently taking ganda note was sounded in the story of the machine-gunning advantage of the fact that Japanese carrier strength was of a school and the death of a student. And finally n sombre heavily engaged in the Bay of Bengal, American bombers chord WILS struck by Major General Takaso Hiraguehi, 10 11 SECRET SECRET member of the Imperial Headquarters Information Board, The Burma Road in Recieve who warned that such raids may be repeated on a large seale and that as for parachutists: "Such soldiers are different from American observers recently returned from China and ordinary prisoners of war. If I am to state my personal realistic Chinese army officers in Washington for some time opinion very frankly, they should have their arms, legs, and have objected to the term "life-line" as descriptive of the heads lopped off." Burma Road. They point out that the Road can provide certain priceless materials for Chinese arsenals and industries, but not the heavy supplies for an army in the field. Even The Chincse Take Over in Burma with the loss of Rangoon and Southern Burma, however, After reseuing a large number of British encircled at the mad will continue for some time to be a source of supply Yeuangyaung, Chinese forces in Burma, necording to reports for China. from Chungking, recaptured this oil center and took over the According to an American transport export who inspected greater part of the Burma front, This development followed the Road last summer, it will require from a year to 18 months the destruction of the Yenangyaung oil wells, successfully to move into China the materials collected at Lashio and in esecuted by the British in the face of strong Japanese efforts dumps along the lower part of the highway, Other reports to save the wells, Meantime, the former British defenders of confirm this estimate. An official survey conducted between the Irrawaddy sector have apparently retired to the north for November 30 and December 29, 1941, showed roughly a nunch-needed rest. 150,000 tons of goods of all categories in Burnip en route to Despite the successful Chinese counter-attack, and Allied China, Of this total, almost half was already at Lashio or bombing of Rangoon and Port Blair in the Andaman Islands, points north. A month later, 22,000 tons of specifically lend- observers pointed out that there was little reason for opti- lease goods were on hand at Rangoon, of which 10,000 to mism about the Burma front. Chinese withdrawals in the 12,000 tons were trucks able to move out under their own Sittang area have paralleled those of the British on the power. Officers engaged in the evacuation of Rangoon have Irrawaddy, where the invaders have now returned to the reported that it was possible during February to move up- assult at Yenangyaung, And the Japanese' are evidently country the great bulk of the lend-lease goods which lend adding to their attacks in these two sectors, third offensive accumulated there. northwed from Thailand in the Bawlake area. Press reports It is somewhat difficult to determine how much of this suggest that the recent Japanese naval concentration in the material has already arrived in China. Perhaps 15,000 tons Boy of Bengal may have been for the protection of troop a month would be a safe estimate. But of this total, three- convoys going to Rangoon. When these reinforcements fifths may be gasoline. Fundamentally, then, logistic dif- nach the fighting front, the Chinese defenders of Burria ficulties on the Road remain ne crucial DA ever. In DI China may well be seriously outnumbered, and may also find them- where every gallon of gasoline is precious, and where the selves in a still more disadvantageous position with respect current revival of stage transport indicates a supreme effort In heavy war equipment. to utilize every available conveyance, however primitive, the 12 13 SECRET SECRET shipment of lend-lease materials to their final destination Although by now the ground is dry in the Crimea, such an must necessarily be skow. attack an that envisaged above in perhaps not to be antici- The reverse side of the coin is the difficulty encountered in puted until the first or second work in May. Furthermore, getting strategie materials out of China to the United States, some military commentators believe that n. war of norves As of mid-March, there were on hand for shipment from may g) on until June, and that then the Germans may launch China more than 300 tons of bristles, 50,000 tous of tung oil, their main effort on Moscow, with only = holding attack to 200 tons of silk, 1,450 tons of tungsten, 1,850 tons of tin, and the south. Such a "northern" school of thought draws 5 tons of mercury. Air transport, for the present at least, attention to Soroka and Murinansk as presible points of would seareely be adequate to move such large eargoes out German interest in the very near future-as fond-lease ship- of China, ments over the Aretie Sea route steadily increase in volume. Germany Reduces Her Rations German Spring Strategy The new German food rations effective April G involved As the period draws near when elimatie conditions will average reductions of about seven per cent in bread and cereal permit n German spring offensive, newspaper speculation on products, 19 per rent in meats, and 17 per cent in fats and the direction and character of such a drive has become wils, For normal consumers, heavy workers, and bing or increasingly plentiful. Press conmentators, apparently ob- night workers, the cuts were proportionately greater than seed with Germany's supposed need of oil, have largely average. For very heavy workers, however, the reduction restricted themselves to prodicting an attack in the extreme was below the general average, with the result that their south directed nt Rostov and the oil fields of the Caurasus favored position because still more marked. Apparently arva. these new rations will continue to provide an adequate diet Informed military observers point out, however, that a for those in special working rategories, but for normal non- drive for oil will doubtless be secondary to an effort to sumers a diet only on the margin of adequary. destroy the Russian southern armies, If the latter objective Although these reductions are actually of 11. magnitude were attained, the former would naturally follow. Such un previously unperalleled for any of the commodities affected, offensive of annihilation might very well cume in the form of they searcely justify over/optimistie hopes, On the basis of Il pineer movement on Stalingrad- the southern attack from a study prepared in the Economies Division of the Counti- the direction of Rostov, the northern from Kharkov or even nator's Office, it appears that the changes do not reflect a from Kursk. The eventual objective would most likely be eritical estimation in the food Infance for the current erop the port of Astraklun on the Caspian Sea, whose explure your (ending July 31). This - tron even for fats and would isolate the Catiensus from the rest of Russia, except in which the German position in particularly tight. Rather, for roundabout routes using the Caspian Sen no must look elsewhere for the persons that have dietated itself. so drustie a step, 14 15 SECRET Estimates of prohable consumption requirements under the the defendant am not II For licence net nations suggest that local grain supplies in the future to HIM" Mary, the Turks have what I direct named of the than requirements; here the German- may Russian information FRuit the lo even wage surpluses n° emergency reserves, Aube- DIE the Swiet to Exect the signature quantities of meats are in all probability also assured -- email that the - Minimum for the emp year 1912-13 Even fats and oils should be able les filt diligal In lesse for to fill present ration requirements through the period Thu= far the Turkish provided has required - The new reductions apparently represent 2121 effort in Bar providing to - report from de futudi consumption to the long-run emply that receively a redermed of addition that Le muli Claims the agricultural potentialities of the conquered hands Ine mein if Her Naciets - - las realized, the rulers of Germany an probably intiri- the creting the sugard the - pating IN less favorable supply situation, particularly after the Pno Bureau named that il the end of 193. Eventially the tations reductions reflect. Turkey would not he-ltate 01 INI - Harrefore, entre preparation for the possibility that the war HYPE, - Ankung - - mill not les VERMEL this year HE even the year following provides Service Die indition 14a the importance of the minutions He adjust. to beilure Public HIP the food Inlance, they may do net DE III positive namile Inntiers Betwe the begs nations am more check comparable with the ⑉ which to Berlin, the prevailing tations in countries actively importation with the to Certeria declared that aller de Germany Finland Himpary, insuel Dady, Mono briefen lesse in lune male - 100% the Allied interpretation that Nov - periods newl Turkey will For The German wrokness today may Ind again to disappointed doe midrat that be ROYM withing monthly bequest con item of the will calue in the Nami Mill of heres depelopment of the events deno beforen Tuber and de Transion the Turlor new <till keeping everyone Although Britich dateman Increvently equipal hims If, AM - protty will national with the date of Vigler Voters to Comple Date relations, strung indications last net% approval 11 the of Presso Mainta Remail King - person different direction, The trinted - maintine ------------------------- hir more from - the moid an Company less advance MP taking . ++ its Franz tim Paper loss exidently unered the - fine - I words of the Revion payment and 140% michael HER for effect 16 17 SECRET SECRET Coordinator's Office, legal food rations in unoccupied France, The Block Market even when sugmented by the non-rationed foods which may The significant "leak" in this rationing system has come be available, are sufficient to provide French adults with through the Black Market, That leak is masle possible by mily alemt 50 per rent of their enlory requirements. the cooperation of incompetent and corrupt administrators, Breadgrains are rationed at 60 percent of the pre-war and by the participation of the farmers themselves in illegal level, fats and oils at 40 percedt, and ments at 22 percent. marketing activities, Wealthy consumers and the rund pro- Diets are deficient in calories, proteins, ealcium, and iron, and dueers fare reasonably well, but at the expense of the rest vitamin intake is correspondingly low, Such a diet, accord- of the population- in particular, the large majority of urban ing to nutrition experts in the Bureau of Home Economies consumers. Department of Agriculture), produces serious physical and The extent of dealings outside of the rationing system mental results, Following prolonged deficiency of certain may be judged in part from the statement by one French vitamins and minerals, one may expect to find loss in weight, food official who estimated that in France as a whole 1.4 Insered resistance to disease, increasing incidence of digestive million total of whent had been diverted from "proper" use disturbances, fracturing of bones, dental deeay, and delayed by the Black Market, fraud, the feeding of animals, and the bealing of wounds. Weakness, lassitude, and a. loss of initin- use of counterfeit ration eards. More revealing is the fact tive and interest in life occur under such conditions. that rations in unoccupied France were severely cut in Artificial "Surpluses" April 1942. even though analysis indicates clearly that sup- plies would have been adequate if einsumption had been The facility with which the Germans have been able to rationed at the levels in effect at the beginning of the crop requisition local food "surpluses" has greatly aggravated the year. food situation. The armistice agreement, which divided the For those whose need for foodstuffs is most negte, there is muntry, created these "surpluses" in both occupied and une- likely to be little benefit even from increased production, at employed ofens by cutting off markets from their former supply least until such time as German requisitioning declines and Further "surpluse" were created within the unoe- the rationing system is made effective, In the opinion of a employed antie because of the incompetence of the Vieby- competent observer, these reasons, particularly the last, oppointed bureaurracy which controlled food distribution. would prevent improvement in the food position of low- Attenipting to smother illegal traffie, they merely succeeded income urban consumer groups, even were new food import in restricting trade between departments. Additional "sur- sources made available to Vieby France. resulted which invited further German requisitions. The insuranced totie, which in normal years WITH dependent Growing Azia Strength in the Moditerranean the rest of France for a large share of its foodstuffs, In the eastern Mediterranean Axis submarines have vir- suffered uped from such artivities, Nonetheless, analysis really eliminated British convoys, according to various by the Economics Division reveals that food supplies remain- enemy sources, and Nazi submarine production is declared THE in that zune should have been sufficient to balance require- adequate to equal their admittedly important losses in that townts at the legal tation levels effective during the post year. area. Malta continues to suffer from the almost unremitting hotohardment from Sicily. And the forerasts of neutral 12 13 SECRET SECRET observers in Berlin tend to confirm earlier impressions that Catroux' cooperation with generally pro-Vichy Maronites, there will be no offensives against Egypt and Syria this even though the outcome might be a Lebanese government spring by reason of the heat and Hitler's involvement in not DH friendly to the British as the present one. But in the Russia. The Spanish Ambassador in Berlin, it is under- meantime, Catroux, who had telegraphed de Gaulle he would stood, has reported to his government that Rommel will not no longer allow Spears to intervene, made a hurried trip have enough equipment for active campaigning before from Beirut to Damaseus and set up at new Syrian ministry autumn, and that Laval and the Nazis definitely plan to without the knowledge of his British colleague. reconquer Syrin. although there is no indication as to when this might take place. Thrusts and Counter-Thrusts in the Far North Meanwhile, however, Anglo-Egyptian relations appear to In the northern sector of the Russian front, where snow be improving. Nashant Pasha, the Egyptian envoy to is still on the ground and the thaw has not yet bogged down London, who was under some suspicion, is reported to have the movements of armies, a series of confused attacks and remonstrated strongly with the King in favor of the British counterattacks have been going on for the past two weeks. and the Wafd: and, according to the Frankfurter Zeitung, Apparently the Germans are still sniping at Allied supply the new Wafd premier, Nahas Pasha, recently had a long and lines south from Murmansk, while the Russians are evidently apparently satisfactory conversation with Sir Stafford Cripps trying to disorganize the Finnish army-which may well on Egyptian post-war aspirations. After a two-day debate, prove to be the weakest link in any German plans for a re- the Egyptian Chamber of Deputies approved by an over- newed offensive. whelming majority Nahas' arrest of Aly Maher, the pro-Axis Last week at least, the Germans and Finns were more leader. At that time Nahas said that, although he wanted vocal than the Russians in their reports of successful action. to spare Egypt the horrors of war and to prevent Egyptian Marshal Mannerheim claimed the repulse of Soviet attacks manhood from becoming cannon fodder, he would remain loyal along the Svir River, while Berlin reported that, in the Arctic to engagements with Britain and tolerate nothing harmful to theater, German planes had bombed Murmansk and Nazi the democracies in the world struggle for freedom. mountain troops had shattered Russian advance units. Stockholm even went so far as to say that part of the long- Syrian Imbroglio encircled German 16th Army had fought its way to safety In Syria and the Lebanon, the three-cornered political from Staraya Russa. Far to the south, the Germans told of controversy continues between the British General Spears, an air attack on Novorossisk on the Caucasian const of the the Free French General Catroux, and the natives. In Black Sen-Russin's chief naval base east of the Crimen. general, the British desire to strengthen military defense, Neutralization of Novorossisk would be a logical prelude to the Free French to maintain French control and prestige an offensive in the Caucasus area. unimpaired, and the natives to further Arab nationalism. Meantime, 8. A. Lozovsky, Russian Vice Commissar for The French and the natives are in direct opposition, a situa- Foreign Affairs, overflowed with optimistic predictions for the tion tending to weaken the whole Allied defense position. coming campaign. But with American lend-lease aid to The British Foreign Office had disapproved of Spears' Russia just beginning to hit its stride, competent observers in proposal for a new election in the Lebanon and had approved this country were little inclined to prophecy. And a report 14 15 that between 1500 and 3000 people were starving to death is also being currently discussed with the British, and may daily in Leningrad gives, if correct, some indication of the be nearing a solution. extent of civilian suffering in Russia's beleaguered cities. Furthermore, according to Soviet sources, Leningrad has Modest Victory for the Left in Argentina recently undergone a three-day air attack by the Luftwaffe. In Argentina the Radical and Socialist members of the Conciliation on the Diplomatic Front Chamber of Deputies, whose combined vote gives them a slim majority, succeeded in uniting their forces to reëlect Dr. Diplomatic dispatches last week suggested that the Soviet José Luís Cantilo, a Radical, to the presidency of the Cham- foreign office was beginning to abandon its characteristic ber, This was the first test of the use the Socialists would attitude of reserve toward neutral and even Allied powers. make in the new Parliament of their balance of power posi- From Ankara came the report that the advance guard of the tion, and indicates that Acting President Castillo may have 30,000 Polish soldiers whom Russia is sending to the Middle strong Chamber opposition. Some observers predict that East for training, had arrived at Jerusalem. Furthermore, in such a case Castillo may find some pretext to dissolve Russo-Turkish tension over the trial of those accused in the Parliament and make the semi-dictatorship of the conserva- bombing attempt on German Ambassador Von Papen appears tive National Democratic Party complete. In the Senate, to have abated. Soviet officials have evidently been some- where the conservatives have unchallenged control, Dr. what surprised at the furor that certain tactless remarks on Robustiano Patrón Costas was reëlected president. their part have aroused in the Turkish capital. And it now appears that the Turkish foreign minister himself has ad- Paraguay's Liberal Party Dissolved mitted in private that the judges in the case were not being The dissolution of Paraguay's once-dominant Liberal Party, entirely fair to the defendants. announced by the government on April 25, makes legal a situation which has existed in fact for some time. Since Russia, Bulgaria, and Poland assuming office in September 1940, President Morinigo has The Soviets also appear to be making efforts to undermine systematically ousted Liberal officials and has exiled or im- whatever aid Bulgaria has promised to give the Nazis on prisoned the party's leaders, thereby effectively eliminating the Eastern Front. A Tass dispatch from Geneva suggests it from the political scene. There have been recent indica- that despite the "Hitlerization" of the country and the tions that political exiles have been active (The War suppression of all opposition by the new Bulgarian cabinet, This Week, March 19-26, p. 19). The dissolution decree, there is still danger of a popular uprising against active which probably reflects that renewed activity, makes no Bulgarian participation in the war. The Bulgarian people, essential change in the military dictatorship, which has the dispatch concludes, are determined to resist the attempt methodically suppressed all opposition. to convert them into cannon fodder for Hitler. Nothing has diminished their hatred for "Bulgarian traitors and their Nazi Propaganda of Confusion in Latin America Berlin masters." The Nazis continue to spread the propaganda of confusion The remaining thorny issue in Russian foreign policy- in Latin America, aiming to paralyze the opposition through that of the post-war status of the three small Baltie States- conflicting and disturbing rumors and reports. When, for 16 17 SECRET SECRET instance, ten advanced training planes destined for Brazil like Montreal whose constant contact with English speaking made a forced landing on the Orinoco Delta, the newspapers Canadians makes them more tolerant of other points of view. in Rio de Janeiro the next day carried the story that three of As a result of the vote, Quebec is now pitted against the rest the B-25's then being sent from the United States to Brazil of the Dominion. Instead of unifying the country, the had cracked up also-a story which had no foundation in fact plebiscite reveals more clearly than before that many of its but which was widely believed. sons will be forced unwillingly to serve overseas, and that Another blow was struck at hemisphere solidarity by an an ultra loyalist Ontario is convinced that French Canada is apparent agreement on the part of the Axis to respect trying to sabotage the war effort. Argentine shipping if Argentina remains neutral. The exist- The position of Prime Minister King has been made very ence of such an agreement is reflected in secret instructions difficult by the plebiscite result. The main objective of his issued by the Argentine government to ship owners on how political career has been the maintenance of national unity, to mark and light their vessels and what routes to follow. and according to one informed observer, it is not expected During the past week the Nazis have been making stren- that he would further confuse the political situation at the uous efforts to reestablish radio communications with Latin present time by resigning. Nevertheless, by the vote of America. When certain Brazilian stations were raided April 27, the Quebec members of the Federal Parliament, (The War This Week, March 26-April 2, 1942, pp. 17-18), who by a great majority supported the government, have the Germans lost the channel through which connection was been repudiated by their own constituents. Mr. King, a maintained between Berlin and the espionage system of the master of political maneuver, must find his way out of this Western Hemisphere. Now messages from several stations predicament, possibly by means of a general election, in in Chile indicate that a new connection is in the process of which his talent for persuading French Canadians might be being set up from the latter country. The Germans are more fully exercised than it was in the plebiscite campaign. calling for the plans of "our invasion" of northwest Africa. Quebec Votes "No" Canada's voters, by a two to one majority, have signified their willingness to release Prime Minister MacKenzie King's government from its previous promises never to introduce conscription for overseas service. This result had been anticipated, but it had been hoped that the negative vote in Quebec would be considerably less than the actual 72 per cent which the returns show. In effect, French Canada as a whole voted against releasing the government from its anti-conscrip- tion pledges. The 28 per cent of the Quebec population who voted "Yes" were probably confined largely to the English speaking groups who constitute 20 percent of the whole and to the small number of French Canadians in urban centers 18 19 NUMBER 30 COORDINATOR OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK April 30-May 7, 1942 di) OF STATE OREGON Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. A APRIL 30-May 7, 1942 SECRET The Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK Following the recent accession of Laval, the British seized the initiative and struck Tuesday at Vichy-held Madagascar. With parachutists and commandos reported in the van of the attack, the British have captured the principal base at Diego Suarez and threaten the early conquest of the island, aiming above all to safeguard it against potential future use by the Axis. At the other end of the Indian Ocean the Japanese were fully capitalizing the successes of their newest offensive in Burma. With Lashio and Mandalay in their hands, they drove fresh spearheads northeast along the Burma Road, north toward Bhamo, and northwest toward India, and had virtually isolated China from all but air supply. To the southeast, developments in Melanesia clearly indicated the imminence of some further advance in the Solomon Islands and suggested that an even wider offensive in the Coral Sea area may be in the making. In the west, German precautions in France and the Low Countries appeared to reflect no substantial anxiety concern- ing a "second front," despite the widespread publicity given the latter possibility in the press of the democracies. On the eastern front the Soviets continued to win victories by com- muniqué, but American military observers were inclined to discount these successes and to believe that the Germans are actually in the process of ironing out salients created by earlier Russian drives. 1 SECRET SECRET The British Seize the Initiative in Madagascar Good Hope to the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, India and The British expedition against Diego Suarez, following Australia would be neutralized. President Roosevelt's prediction of measures to prevent Furthermore, the United Nations would possess a new further Axis use of French territory in any part of the world, strategic springboard, well situated in relation to the Middle emphasized again the determination of the United Nations and Far Eastern theatres of combat as a point of support for to seize the initiative from their opponents. Threats of a convoys, a base for submarines and destroyer patrols (the Japanese move on Madagascar have been in the air since the dry-dock at Diego Suarez can accommodate 10,000-ton fall of Singapore, and measures to forestall it were under- cruisers), and a vantage point for aerial surveillance of the taken even before the Vichy visit of Admirals Abe and southern Indian Ocean and southeast Africa. Madagascar Nomura accentuated the danger, according to press reports. normally exports large quantities of agricultural and mineral The attacking forces struck directly for Madagascar's products, particularly beef, coffee, graphite and mica. It is strongest fortified point-a naval base and military area, understood that she now has substantial accumulations of with a considerable garrison even in normal times. Geo- these products which will be available for the common effort graphically this northern tip of the island is practically iso- as fast as ships can be found to carry them. lated, save for a single none-too-adequate road down to Majunga, and thence inland to Tananarive, the capital. But Difficulties of Occupation capitulation of Diego Suarez would probably entail the col- lapse of resistance elsewhere and open the way for rapid Considerable local difficulties face a power which assumes penetration of the whole colony. The few thousand ill- responsibility for Madagascar by military occupation. These equipped native and French troops can hardly resist long, are not lessened by the publicly expressed determination to and the possibilities of Japanese aid appear remote. Fifth respect the status of the colony as French territory, ulti- column activities present no serious threat. The natives are mately to be restored to France. The chiefs of the adminis- unarmed, and disinclined to guerrilla fighting; the bulk of tration are strongly collaborationist, and probably cannot the 25,000 French residents are friendly; no serious inter- be left in office. The economic situation is very bad, owing ference will be offered by seventy Italians, five Germans, and to shipping losses and the effects of eighteen months of two "problematical" Japanese-a hotel keeper and his wife. British blockade. Trade has practically ceased, and there are acute shortages of all kinds of manufactured goods, con- struction materials, petroleum products, medicines, wheat Advantages of Holding 1adagascar flour, and condensed milk. Health conditions present a third major problem for an occupying force. Malaria is The United Nations would gain decided advantages from prevalent over the whole island, tuberculosis and syphilis a conquered and strongly held Madagascar. Most impor- are very widespread, and the microscopic jigger flea, which tant, the danger of hostile use of the island would be removed; burrows under the toenail to lay its eggs, could by itself a critical threat to troops and supplies routed via the Cape of cripple an incautious army., 2 3 SECRET SECRET Potential Danger of a Break With Vichy to warn his people of the difficulties which lie ahead and of A larger peril is that the Vichy government might be the possibility of further prolongation of the war. drawn into full Axis belligerency, especially in the event of In the Burmese campaign the Japanese appear to have taken protracted fighting. If the occupation is completed by land- brilliant advantage not only of superior forces and equipment, ing troops on Madagascar's insular dependencies in the Indian but also of native aid. Fifth columnists captured Lashio some Ocean and the Mozambique Channel, not to mention the hours prior to the actual occupation of the town by Japanese nearby independent colony of Reunion, the number of pos- forces, according to reliable advices received here. Four sible grievances will be multiplied. It is clear, however, that Thai divisions are said to have participated with the Japanese the United Nations face the chances of a break with open in the attack, and native Burmese were active against the eyes. The United States has declared that it will not hesitate Allies throughout the campaign. In addition to the Thai to send troops or ships to Madagascar, should such action be divisions, eight Japanese divisions and two motorized regi- desirable in the common cause, and that it will regard any ments are estimated to be in action on the Burmese front, warlike act against either Great Britain or the United States supported by some 400 planes. Upwards of 250 light and as an attack upon the United Nations as a whole. War with medium tanks also are said to be in use. one power means war with all. Laval has chosen to place a minimal interpretation on this formula, and to regard local resistance in Madagascar as falling outside the category of The Advance on China "warlike acts." Meanwhile it is reported that the British The strongest Japanese drive appears to be along the Burma did not consult the Free French in advance and that General road, where the invaders are reported to have reached and de Gaulle's headquarters have evinced notable chagrin and passed Wanting, which lies beyond the Chinese border in disappointment in this connection. Yunnan Province. The nature of this threat to China is difficult to evaluate, but it hardly seems likely that the Defeat in Burma Japanese can extend their operations far into China at present. The Japanese are moving swiftly to rout the last Allied Beyond Wanting, the terrain becomes very difficult, and the resistance in Burma. Chinese and British forces, defeated Burma road climbs over rugged country to elevations as and separated, are retreating on three fronts-toward India, high as 8,430 feet. Various Chinese in Washington seem to toward northern Burma, and into China itself. Imperial be convinced that southwest China is not the danger spot Headquarters at Tokyo claims also the capture of the air- for a Japanese offensive. The real threat, they say, still field at Akyab on the western Burmese coast, only 300 air- lies in the Yangtze valley area of central China, and particu- line miles from Calcutta, but the British have offered no larly in the region of Changsha, which the Japanese have confirmation. This denouement of the Burmese campaign, already three times assaulted. which has now developed new threats to both China and The Japanese may intend, however, to proceed as far as India, has led Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek once again Lungling. Their objectives here would be two: the sub- stantial isolation of China and destruction of lend-lease sup- 4 5 SECRET SECRET plies cached along the Burma road. Although depot facili- Withdrawal to India ties between Lashio and Kunming are poor, the Chinese A third Japanese drive is directed against British and apparently have transferred some supplies from Lashio to Indian troops retreating along the Chindwin River toward this region. Kalewa. From Kalewa there is a trail across the great Arakan Yoma range to Chittagong in India. The Japanese The Isolation of China are reported to be moving up the Chindwin River in barges. At Lungling, about 20 miles southwest of the point where Whether they would attempt to follow the retreating Allied the Burma road crosses the Salween River, there is a junction forces across the Arakan Yoma range is again open to ques- with a route northward to Myitkyina, thence to Fort Hertz, tion. But these mountains, formerly thought to be impass- from which a road is now being built over the mountains to able for armies, are probably no more 80 than those which Ledo in Assam. Japanese capture of Lungling would put lie between eastern Burma and Thailand, and over which the an end even to the faint hope of supplying China over this Japanese have moved their tanks to capture Lashio. Refugees new route to the Burma road. from Burma, of whom there are reported to be some 80,000, Another supply route, known as the India road, is said to have been filtering into India over the mountains at the rate be under construction. Starting at Ledo, it uses the route to of a thousand or more a day for the past several weeks. It is Fort Hertz, then runs due east to Sichang in China and from difficult to believe that Japanese troops could not do the same. there another 600 miles to Chungking. News despatches It must also be borne in mind, however, that the region on from Chungking say that "350,000 laborers" are now working the windward side of these mountains is one of the rainiest in on this road. But it crosses very difficult terrain and several the world during the monsoon season now approaching. At high passes, including one of more than 13,000 feet. It is Cherra Punji in India, some 200-odd miles north of Chitta- estimated that at best this road could not be completed for gong, the rainfall sometimes reaches 425 inches a year-with at least two years. one exception, the heaviest in the world. The most effective method of implementing President Roosevelt's recent promise to maintain aid to China appears, The Japanese Move Forward in Melanesia therefore, to depend upon the further development of a Current Japanese naval and air activity in the Carolines traffic in airborne goods. Japanese air bases in northern and Melanesia now suggests the beginning of a forward move- Burma might also make this difficult. But the fact that, ment in the Solomon Islands, with an offensive on a large scale before the fall of Hongkong, a regular air freight service was in the Coral Sea area not to be excluded. Since the with- maintained over Japanese occupied territory between Hong- drawal of their naval concentration from the Bay of Bengal kong and Chungking indicates that freight service of this in mid-April, the Japanese have shifted the focus of their naval kind is at least possible. activities to the Southern Mandates-New Britain area. It is believed that most of the heavy units returning from the Indian Ocean proceeded to home waters for overhaul and 6 7 SECRET SECRET repairs. But at least two heavy cruisers, supported by de- Russo-Japanese Relations Improve? stroyers and submarines and later reinforced by the new air- craft carrier Ryukaku, sailed to the vicinity of Truk in the Japanese relations with Russia are improving, while those with Germany are getting worse, in the opinion of the French Carolines. An attempt to occupy Tulagi Harbor in the ambassador in Tokyo, whose views are to be received with Solomons, which continues to be the object of Japanese bombing attacks, is looked upon as imminent. some reserve since in mid-March he regarded a Japanese attack on Siberia as imminent (The War This Week, March The Japanese may soon be able to reinforce their troops 19-26, pp. 6-7). Although the extreme militarists still favor in this area from units released by the fall of the forts in Manila bay. After a pounding from Japanese heavy artil- war and the betterment in relations may even be a Japanese ruse to deceive the Russians, the ambassador thinks that lery, firing from the heights of Bataan, Corregidor's defenses cooler heads in Japan will restrain the others until the results have given way, and this key fort has finally fallen. Terms of the expected German offensive against Russia become for the surrender of other forts in the bay are being arranged. apparent. Resistance apparently is continuing, however, on Mindanao, The following may be straws in the wind: General Tate- Cebu, and Panay and even in Northern Luzon, coming chiefly from small, scattered units and guerrillas. How far kawa, ex-ambassador to Russia, has made remarks implying praise of Russia's war effort, and the Japanese government the Japanese intend to mop up in the Philippines at this time is a matter of conjecture. again permits and even encourages its officials to travel by the Trans-Siberian Railroad. Moreover, there were no indi- cations of military movements on either side, of the Man- Reconnaissance in New Guinea churian frontier during the past week. A Japanese warning In the Markham Valley of Northeast New Guinea, where to the Soviets that additional landings of American bombers their troops were flooded out several weeks ago by heavy in Siberia would endanger Russo-Japanese relations was to be rains, the Japanese have again penetrated inland. Observ- expected in the circumstances. ers on the scene, however, apparently do not anticipate an immediate attack on Port Moresby overland via the Mark- Non-violence in India ham Valley, but suggest rather that the Japanese are seeking to disperse their airfields. Numerous commercial fields On May 2 the Working Committee of the Indian National exist inland, which in peacetime were used for air transport Congress, by a vote of 176 to 4, adopted a measure calling to the New Guinea gold fields. for non-violent non-cooperation as the means of resisting a The anxiety of the Japanese, reflected in their search for possible Japanese invasion. The motion precludes any sup- dispersal fields, is well grounded. On two successive days, port of the British program of military resistance, although April 29 and 30, Allied fliers were able to bomb and machine the Congress states that it will put no hindrance in the way of that program. It was at the instance of Mahatma Gandhi gun Japanese aircraft lined up on the ground at Lae, destroy- ing or damaging some 50 planes. that the Congress acted-Gandhi, who less than two weeks before had protested against the growing American military 8 9 SECRET SECRET strength in India. The motion represents, for the present present war, and withdrew from the leadership of the Con- at least, the return of Gandhi to leadership, and the tem- gress when the latter offered in the summer of 1940 to support porary eclipse of Nehru. the British war effort. Convinced that the Japanese, as The Cripps mission had left the Congress a prey to internal military aggressors, are the agents of evil, Gandhi now has dissension. Nehru and Azad, president of the Congress, induced the Congress to oppose them also with satyagraha. favored full resistance to Japan. Rajagopalachariar, right- wing leader from Madras, while also favoring active resist- Non-Violence in Action ance, differed from the other Congress leaders in wishing to collaborate with the Moslem League by establishing separate The action of the Working Committee is not pro-Japanese. Hindu and Moslem states. His resignation from the Con- Neither does it imply merely passive resistance. It may gress preceded by a few days the vote in favor of non-violence. mean such active forms of opposition as refusal to man the railways, abandonment of city services, mass demonstrations against taxes-all efforts to wear down the endurance of the The Philosophy of Non-Violence aggressors. Its success is far from certain, but the only Non-violent non-cooperation is a technique of revolt other way of mobilizing the civilian population seems to be developed by Gandhi in South Africa before the First World guerrilla warfare, and for this the people have no training. War. He took it to India in 1919 to use against the British, and it was the weapon of his widespread campaign during Fresh Speculation on Laval 1919-1922. Its philosophy is epitomized in the word satyagraha-somewhat loosely translated by Gandhi as "soul An element of mystery continues to surround the in- force." Literally it means "stubborn insistence (agraha) tentions of Pierre Laval. General de Gaulle believes that upon the truth (satya)." Truth, in Gandhi's view, as in that he may for the present lull the French people into a false of traditional Hinduism, is a metaphysical force, with absolute sense of security (apathetic reactions to Laval's return to value, which can operate to produce concrete results in the power have been reported in various French circles). The physical world. A true cause, promoted by sincere advocates, General also believes that later Laval will perhaps place the themselves strictly devoted to truth in every respect, cannot French fleet indirectly at the service of the Axis in operations fail. Ethically, truth abhors the injury of living creatures: against Syria. it is the antithesis of violence. In this same connection, another observer points out that In the case of modern India, Britain as its sovereign has the cabinet is filled with second rate men (see Appendix I) appeared to Gandhi to represent untruth, to be "satanic": and is really to be viewed as a half-way house on the road to Britain took and enslaved the country; it holds India by full collaboration. These second raters, some of them friends violence. For this reason, Gandhi has felt himself called on of Pétain, have been chosen as a transitional cloak under to lead a movement to drive out the British by non-violence. which Laval can act while he is establishing full control in For the same reason, he opposed áctive cooperation in the France. Meanwhile the Germans will make concessions to 10 11 SECRET SECRET Laval only as he demonstrates that he is their man, accord- some 30 divisions (one armored). The strength of each ing to this argument, and they may then drop him in turn division is estimated to be considerably less than that of divi- when he has served their purpose. sions operating on the Eastern Front, where more overhead Various sources now picture Laval's appointment as a troops are required, 80 that the total of the 30 divisions may grudging pis aller on the part of Pétain: if the Marshal had not be more than 375,000 men. Some observers, moreover, refused to yield, Hitler threatened to install a Gauleiter in believe that the total number of divisions may be 27 rather France and to institute military control (and perhaps total than 30, but with an additional armored division in training occupation) of the unoccupied zone. In any event the in the vicinity of Paris. Marshal recently defended the appointment by declaring that, although Laval was somewhat more favorable to the The Factor of Rapid Reinforcement Germans than he (Pétain), the new premier would give no military aid to the Nazis. The current situation could change almost overnight, however, since it is estimated that ground reinforcements leaving central Germany could be set down on the French German Anxiety in the West? coast within 72 hours. With adequate bases and facilities On the eve of Hitler's expected offensive in the east, various (which they are believed to possess), and assuming the developments and reports reveal German anxiety concerning availability of operational units in central Germany and the military position in the west, according to some observers. elsewhere, the Germans could probably double their air It is widely believed that the Nazis sought in the creation of force in 24 hours, according to military observers. the Laval regime security in their rear. The popular demand Troops stationed. near Cherbourg have been observed in Britain for a "second front" and the recent conversations recently undergoing intensive training to resist possible of high Allied strategists are believed in some quarters to be landings, and preparations for defense along the entire the source of uneasiness in German counsels. An uncon- French coast continue. But there is no evidence of new firmed report has Field Marshal von Rundstedt appointed Nazi invasion plans against the British Isles, and certain commander of the German Army of Occupation in the west, American observers believe that Germany will be content and it is insisted that Hitler would scarcely waste Von for the present to maintain a strong defensive position. Rundstedt's talents on an inactive front. This view is perhaps confirmed by a report that Rhine On the other hand, the present German military position in barges, previously requisitioned and adapted for use in an the west, as indicated by the accompanying map, suggests no invasion, are being returned to their Dutch owners. great anxiety, either in terms of number or disposition of However confident the Germans may be about the situa- ground troops or of aircraft. Some ten divisions hold the tion in the west, it is not true that they are using only third coastal defense zone from the Gulf of St. Malo to Lille. Three rate troops to garrison their defenses in that area. It is a further divisions are stationed in the Low Countries. Alto- fact that the troops include older men and that they are not gether in occupied France and the Low Countries there are the best in the German Army. But they are veteran fighters 12 13 SECRET SECRET with battle experience gained in the present war, and the dust storms lasting five or six days are useful for concealing divisions include a considerable leavening of younger men. secret maneuvers from the enemy. Reports that these troops are of a distinctly inferior quality may arise in some instances from contacts not with regular units but with Landeschützen. These troops are veterans of The Germans Straighten Their Line the First World War, and the Germans are using about 20 A Nazi effort to wipe out the chief salients established by battalions of them in France, primarily for guard duty in the Soviets last winter-thereby straightening the German lines the interior. in preparation for concerted offensive action-has character- ized recent operations on the Russian front, according to well- informed American military opinion. Of the three great Libyan Alternatives Soviet salients, the Nazis have doubtless already eliminated the one farthest south, toward Dnepropetrovsk. After two In the Western Desert observers point out that a shortage of weeks of German claims, the Russians have finally admitted artillery and anti-tank equipment may force Marshal Rommel fighting around Izum, far to the east of their extreme penetra- to postpone until autumn any planned offensive. As the tion last winter. hot summer months approach, the problem of water and The middle salient, below Smolensk, where Soviet parties of reasonably comfortable bivouacs may well be the chief last February pushed as far as Dorogobuzh, may also have consideration in the Libyan theater. Apparently Rommel's disappeared. Here the Nazis claim to be in Sukhinichi, present positions at Jebel el Achdar are hilly, comparatively effectually pinching off the area of Russian advance, but this well watered, and much cooler than those of the British. claim still awaits Soviet confirmation. The final salient, the Yet an Axis attack is not entirely out of the question. northern one around Staraya Russa, may still be intact. It The virtual neutralization of Malta has permitted far more is of some significance, however, that the Russians have now Axis convoys to get through to Tripoli than was the case admitted for the first time that the Germans are occupying a last autumn and winter. Considerable reinforcement of number of towns south and east of Leningrad. Marshal Rommel's army is, then, theoretically possible. As the Nazi lines straightened, the German armies were The extent of this reinforcement will largely depend on how apparently attempting to clear the areas behind their forward much armored equipment the Nazis think they can spare positions-in order to obtain increased mobility for a coming from the Russian front. offensive. Where such an attack might come was still any- Were Rommel to receive such additional strength, he could body's guess. So far as weather was concerned, the ground probably take the offensive at any time this summer. Highly was dry in the south, in the center it was still muddy, while competent observers suggest that even in the most intense in the north the ice was breaking up. heat mechanized warfare is possible on the Libyan front. The windy season, which lasts for a two-month period some- time between April and June, even offers certain advantages: 14 15 SECRET SECRET Stalin's Ultimate Aims audience against any derelictions of duty or half-hearted Despite its present position of extreme peril, the Soviet support of the war in Russia, he could reasonably assume a Government is apparently unshaken in its desire to regain new and severe "power"-even though he already possessed it. and permanently hold the territory included in its boundaries Abroad Hitler must have known his remarks would be of June, 1941. In his May Day order, Stalin eschewed any desire for "foreign" conquests. But his specific enumeration interpreted as a sign of weakening morale, according to these of the peoples that the Soviets intend to liberate gives some observers. Presumably he aimed at this effect, both in notion of his ultimate aims: "We want to free our brother America, where his objective is to retard the war effort and Ukrainians, Moldavians, White Russians, Lithuanians, Lat- to create confusion, and in England, where he also wishes to awaken doubts as to the wisdom of British policy in carrying vians, Esthonians and Karelians from the insults to which on the war. This he did by assuring the British that they they have been subjected by the German Fascist beasts." are bound to lose the war, even if they lose it only to Russia and the United States. Hitler's Speech Again Optimistic reports interpreting Hitler's recent speech con- Axis Air Strategy: The Value of Interior Lines tinue to arrive. Gothenburg editors dub it privately as the rehearsal of a swan song. The Swedish ambassador at Recent air developments have emphasized the Axis advan- Ankara mentions military tangles and sagging morale. tage of speedy concentration offered by interior lines, in the "Hitler's uneasiness" is another phrase which occurs, and a opinion of an American air expert. In the case of the Swiss Consul mentions the speech along with other factors Germans, who have not yet revealed their full reserves, this factor is still of great importance. The Japanese, on the foreshadowing a "threatened crisis." On the other hand, certain observers here continue to regard other hand, as a result of their far extended lines, may now be the speech as one of Hitler's shrewdest and most carefully in a considerably less favorable position than they were a considered utterances. They point out that the speech aims few weeks ago. at opposite effects at home and abroad, and is to be under- Plane production figures running to many thousands have stood in terms of the two intellectual climates-authoritarian often given a misleading impression as to the number of aircraft needed to carry out a given mission: a relatively small and democratic-to which it was addressed. At home, it was a precautionary warning to all Germans, number, if well organized and well supported, can accomplish aiming not to weaken but to strengthen morale in the face seemingly disproportionate results. For instance, in their of the arduous spring and summer ahead. The promise of southward drive on the Indies, the Japanese used in all about further hardships and the threat of harsh treatment for 2,500 planes, 1,500 of which were operational at any given recalcitrants need not have a demoralizing effect on the time. Despite their reckless expenditure of aircraft in Germans. The Nazi state normally acts by spreading terror, specific actions, they exercised considerable economy in and if Hitler sought to warn the widest possible German their dispositions of strength. For example, by establishing 17 16 SECRET SECRET landing stages about 200 miles apart, they probably cut down operational losses, as compared with combat losses, to the all-out air offensive against India, Australia, or even New Caledonia. surprisingly low ratio of 1:1. From a central air base at Bangkok, the Japanese were There remains the possibility that Japan may swing on her able to despatch planes quickly where they were needed. western pivot in Burma and go into China. But this again Against them, the Allies, desperately outnumbered, lost the might cost Japan more planes than she can afford to spend. greater part of their own aircraft on the ground. Eighteen And in Siberia the undetermined strength of potential Russian American B-17's in Java, for instance, after sinking 45 resistance presents a threat which the Japanese might very well hesitate to encounter. transports and 11 naval vessels in the battle of Macassar Straits, finally succumbed to a Japanese attack on their landing fields. And even when the Allies were able to ship The Factor of Reserves in new planes over long and dangerous transport routes, the necessity of guarding both Australia and India kept their Our observer concludes that Japan has no substantial air air strength dispersed and divided. reserves of her own. Nor is it likely that by any gigantic pincers movement the German and Japanese air fleets would be able to join forces in the Middle East. Formidable Significance of the Attack on Ceylon physical barriers would doubtless prevent any such long- Then came the Japanese air attack on Ceylon. It seems distance replenishment of Japan's reserves. likely that, owing to faulty intelligence, the attackers were Turning toward Europe, we find that German handling of surprised at the resistance they met. After losing around the problem of reserves has been extremely effective. When, 70 planes shot down or damaged (the decks of three carriers for example, Marshal Rommel found himself hard-pressed were shot clean), they broke off the attack, and withdrew by the British in Libya, he obtained an impressive number of their heavy naval units from the Bay of Bengal. additional planes within about two days. But the German This engagement proved what the B-17's in Java and the air force in North Africa is merely an outpost. The Luftwaffe AVG in Burma had already shown-that the Japanese have as a whole is organized in depth to a distance of roughly never yet won an air-battle against properly equipped and 1500 miles from circumference to center, and the central air properly organized opposition. The AVG has outscored its reserve is well under cover. enemies by more than 20 to 1. American raids on Japan's bases at Rabaul, Salamaua, and Lae have been almost uni- formly successful-and virtually without losses for the at- Dispositions in Europe tackers. At the present time the American naval air arm is In Russia we can distinguish three main areas of German successfully contesting Japanese aerial and naval expansion air concentration. To the south, in the Crimea, our observer southward through the Solomons. Faced with this new reports increasing Nazi strength. Such a concentration, he Allied strength, the Japanese may well hesitate to launch an adds, does not necessarily presage an offensive toward the Caucasus. A second area of strength is in the center, facing 18 19 SECRET SECRET the considerable Russian air mass in the Moscow region. including the biggest and best boats, has disappeared, taking Here the immediate purpose of the Nazis is apparently to refugees to the British Isles. Quisling has attempted to stop attack the Russian railroads and blast the Soviet troops out this exodus with regulations of great severity: recently 18 of their trains into the mud. To the north, in Finland, the such refugees were caught and then selected for execution in growing Nazi air concentration threatens the periodic inter- reprisal for the assassination of two Gestapo agents. diction of American supplies to Russia. The lines of com- Meanwhile, the Germans have been rapidly strengthening munication from Murmansk-running laterally to the dis- their system of communications along the Norwegian coast. position of the German air force-are particularly vulnerable They have completed the coastal highway all the way to to attack, the lines from Archangel less so. Kirkenes, near Murmansk. Reports from Stockholm indicate In general, however, the Germans-favored by interior that they have already extended the coastal railway from lines-have not yet revealed their full strength in Europe. Namsos to Mo on the Rana fjord, that they expect to The day-time fighter sweeps of the British, for example, have complete the previously projected stretch to Bodö by the not forced the Nazis to show their hand. Fundamentally, autumn of 1943, and that they are using Russian prisoners of our observer concludes, Hitler must regard the building of war to construct the final link from Bodö through Narvik to American air strength in the British Isles, and not the Russian Kirkenes, which will not be finished for at least two years. land mass before Moscow, as the main threat to his system. The dispersal of American air strength suits his purposes A Democratic Victory in Colombia well, and he may be expected to encourage it and to keep the United Nations guessing as long as he can: Democratic forces won a fresh victory when Alfonso López was chosen president of Colombia in the elections of May 3 by a majority of 200,000 votes out of a total of about Norwegian Resistance Grows 1,100,000. His opponent, Carlos Arango Vélez, is, like López, With the Quisling regime in conflict with practically all the a member of the Liberal Party. But, whereas the former clergy, teachers, and lawyers in Norway, current Swedish drew his support from the right wing of that party and from newspaper reports picture a spread of the spirit of revolt in the Conservative Party (headed by pro-Falangist, pro-Nazi that country. Many teachers have been arrested, thrown Laureano Gómez), López found his constituents among the into concentration camps, subjected to forced labor. On middle and working classes. He also had the support of the whole, opposition has forced the Quisling regime to desist President Eduardo Santos. The election, which was almost from its attempts to indoctrinate these groups, and perse- entirely free from violence, reflected the pro-democratic cutions have served only to unite the people against National convictions of the Colombian people, it is said. In foreign Socialism. National Socialist agitators declare that the policy López favors an aggressive "international democracy" Norwegian professional classes are attempting to create and American solidarity against the Axis forces. chaos to facilitate eventual military invasion by the Allies. In the last two years about 20 percent of the fishing fleet, 20 21 SECRET SECRET The Navy Takes Jurisdiction of Venezuelan Tankers To facilitate protection against further submarine depreda- APPENDIX I tions, it is reported that the United States Navy has just THE CHARACTER OF LAVAL'S CABINET taken jurisdiction of the tanker fleet serving Venezuelan oil With the final constitution of the Laval ministry, it has become possible to make fields. Practically all the crude oil produced in the Mara- certain generalizations about its composition. Noteworthy are the small number caibo fields is transported by shallow-draught tankers to the of holdovers from the previous regime-only five-and the fact that only four Dutch islands of Curaçao and Aruba for refining. Between departments of the government besides those directed by Laval himself carry full ministerial rank-an obvious effort to leave & maximum of authority in the hands February 16 and March 15 of this year Axis submarine ac- of the Chief of the Government. Furthermore, French reactionary and fasciat tivities in these waters had reduced the daily average ship- groups are well represented, and the powerful Worms et Cle, banking and indus- trial trust controlling a large share of the French economy, while less important ments out of Lake Maracaibo and other Venezuelan ports numerically than in the previous cabinet, still retains a considerable representation. by a large percentage. Finally the ministry is full of men of relative youth and inexperience-men who The Navy has now ordered that the tanker fleet operate have recently come up through the ranks, and who now for the first time attain cabinet rank. at less than 50 percent of normal. This rate of operation Brief biographical details follow: signifies an annual loss of revenue for Venezuela of nearly Lucien Romier: minister of state without portfolio attached to Marshal Pétain. Editor of the conservative daily Le Figaro and something of an authority on six- two million dollars, and will also necessitate a substantial teenth century France, Romier is a man of considerable intellectual distinction, curtailment in the personnel of the oil companies. Both an intimate friend of Pétain, and probably less collaborationist than the majority of the cabinet. the Standard and Gulf Oil Companies, however, have Joseph Barthelemy: minister of justice. A former deputy and one-time French recently agreed to bridge this loss in revenue, which should delegate to the League of Nations, Barthélemy is a large landed proprietor, with be only temporary, by non-interest bearing loans to the views which may be described as feudal agrarian. He is a noted jurist, and like Romier, a friend of Pétain and not an outright eollaborationist. Venezuelan treasury, but they have not yet made provision Pierre Cathala: minister of finance-one of Laval's oldest political associates, for their own unemployed workers. having served with him in his ministry of 1931, and in the Tardieu ministeries of 1930 and 1932. Jacques Leroy-Ladurie: minister of agriculture and supply-a large conserva- tive landowner, who wields the preponderant influence in the National Federa- tion of Agriculture. His brother, Gabriel, is a guiding figure in the Banque Worms. Abel Bonnard: minister of national education-a poet and member of the Academy, for some time an ardent exponent of collaboration. He has supported Bonapartist claims to the French throne, and has ridiouled Anglo-Saxon civilization. General Eugène Bridouz: minister of war. As Pétain's military delegate at Paris on the commission discussing armistice problems with the Germans, General Bridoux has assisted Fernand de Brinon, & notorious collaborationist. Admiral Paul Auphan: secretary of state for the navy-one of the youngest admirals in the navy, a Darlan man, whose political opinions have been variously reported M "pro-Ally" and definitely "anti-American." General Jean Jennequin: secretary of state for air-a daring air leader in 1940, and subsequently commander of the French air force in Syria at the time of the British and Free French attack. Hubert Lagardelle: secretary of state for labor-a personal friend of Mussolini, who helped draft Pétain's labor charter. 22 23 SECRET SECRET Jean Bichelonne: secretary of state for industrial production-a mining engi- neer with connections in the French steel industry and the Dutch coal industry. He is a collaborationist and a great admirer of German efficiency. Robert Gibrat: secretary of state for communications-a young man, previously APPENDIX II director of the electricity and communications secretarist. Maz Bonnafous: secretary of state for agriculture and supplies. Graduate of THE ZONES OF OCCUPIED FRANCE the Ecolé Normale Supérieure, a socialist and editor of the works of Jaures, Bonnafous has been prefect of Bouches-du-Rhône and in said to admire autarchy Since the Armistice the portion of metropolitan France occupled by the Germans and authoritarian government. has been divided into at least seven different zones, each with special regulations Jules Brevie: secretary of state for colonies-formerly resident-general in Indo- of ita own controlling the movement of Frenchmen and foreigners. At present, china, and an expert on French West African problems. He has instructed all however, there appear to be only three zones which have any political or military French colonial governors to organize a steadfast defense of the empire. importance: the forbidden zone on the north and east, the coastal zone, and the Dr. Raymond Grasset: secretary of state for family and health-departmental maritime zone (see accompanying map). leader for Pétain's National Veterans Legion and a long-time neighbor of Laval. The coastal zone includes the Atlantic and Channel coast of France from the Paul Marion: secretary of state for information-an amateur economist who Spanish frontier to the forbidden sone in the northeast. Over most of ita length has been associated with & number of the new political parties in France, it is & strip of territory about nineteen miles (thirty kilometers) wide, but the notably Doriot's fascist Parti Populaire Français. boundary line cuta much farther inland behind the larger peninsulas. This zone The following are secretaries of state attached to Laval: is obviously a region of possible combat, and the German military authorities alm Count Fernand de Brinon: The scion of a wealthy family with an entree into high to control all movement and residence there. Since October 20, 1941, entrance German circles, de Brinon was effective head of the Comité France-Allemagne, the into the zone has been forbidden to all persons except those whose principal most active of the pro-German groups of the pre-war period. The author of residence is there, and even residents must have permits from the commander of several articles for official Nazi organs expressing admiration for the policies of the local military district in order to enter or remain in the zone. No newcomers Hitler, he was one of the principal engineers of the Franco-German trade agreement are allowed to establish residence there. signed after Munich, and in the spring of 1939 served as Bonnet's personal agent to The forbidden zone includes the departments along the northeastern frontier Goering. Since the fall of France he has been Pétain's ambassador to the Germans contiguous with Belgium, Germany, and Switzerland, and parts of the second row Paris, at which post he now remains. of departments farther from the border. The return of refugees to this zone is Admiral René Platon: A follower of Darlan, under whom he served as under- absolutely forbidden, except to the Departments of the Moselle, Bas-Rhin, and secretary for the colonies. Haut-Rhin, which compose Alsace-Lorraine and have been annexed outright to Jacques Benoist-Méchin: An outstanding pro-German and the author of the Germany. All traffic between this zone and the rest of France is closely restricted. leading French book on the Reichswehr, Benoist-Méchin was confined to a prison The forbidden zone is served by important railroads leading from the coast to camp by the French government for & time during the present war. On the fall of Germany, and it includes some of the most highly developed industrial districts France, Abets, German representative in Paris, obtained his release. An ardent of the country and has the principal French deposita of iron ore, coal, and potash, collaborationist, he became secretary of state under Pétain, serving as intermediary which, with the sole exception of bauxite, are France's only important mineral between Vichy and the Germans in Paris. It was he who first conceived the idea resources. of transferring to the Invalides the ashes of Napoleon's son. The Germans originally explained their special control over this region All Jacques Guérard: secretary-general attached to Laval-formerly confidential necessitated by heavy war damage, the difficulty of provisioning the area, the secretary to Paul Baudouin, well known defeatist of the Armistice period, during danger of British air-raids, and strategic considerations. There is evidence now, the latter's tenure of the ministry of foreign affairs. however, which indicates that they Intend to annex this zone, or at least a large Robert Bousquet: secretary-general of police-a young man, previously prefect part of it, to Germany. French control has been almost obliterated by barring of the Department of the Marne, in occupied France. entrance into the zone to officials appointed to posta there by the French Govern- Georges Hilaire: secretary-general of administration in the ministry of the ment. The refusal to allow former residents who left the region during hos- interior-another young man, also a prefect in occupied France (Department of tilities to return to their homes, and the intensive recruiting of French laborers the Aube). for work in Germany suggests an attempt to depopulate the area of Frenchmen. Jacques Barnaud: delegate-general for Franco-German economic relations- A German agricultural and colonising society has taken over the cultivation of an able, cultured man, formerly one of the economic advisers to the Blum govern- land owned by refugees and is apparently preparing eventually to settle Germans ment. Deeply interested in Catholic theology, he apparently believes it possible on that land. After the Armistice there appeared in Germany several books and to establish & Catholic totalitarian Europe. He is & partner and leading figure articles in National Socialist publications seeking to justify the extension of the in the Banque Worms. Joseph Pascaud: general commissioner for sports. No information available. 25 24 SECRET German frontier westward to include much of eastern France, which, it was maintained, is geographically and culturally part of Germany. The maritime zone is & continuation of the coastal zone into the forbidden sone. It in an especially restricted combat area, but the particular regulations applying there are not known. In unoccupied France the only zone to be distinguisbed is that composed of the few narrow strips of territory along the Franco-Italian frontier which are occupied by the Italians, and which were held by their troops at the time the Armistice went into effect. 26 . . PRINTING office - SECRET GERMAN MILITARY FORCES S INFANTRY DIVISION IDENTIFIED UNIDENTIFIED / ARMORED DIVISION LONDON 71 Dover Southamptge / BRUSSELS Plymouth LD M 123 148 m 1130 PARIS Strawbourg Breat m AIR STRENGTH 370 BOMBERS 760 FIGHTERS 220 RECONNAISSANCE LTE 2 Names STATE P VICHY W Olyen LIMIT OF OCCUPATION MARITIME REGION OF THE FORBIDDEN ZONE Bordeaux FRANCE FORBIDDEN ZOME FORBIDDEN COASTAL ZONE OCCUPIED BY ITALIANS UNOCCUPIED Marseille o 50 100 150 MILES MAP NO. soe MAY 7. 1942 DRAWN - THE GEOGRAPHY DIVISION, C.O.1. NUMBER 31 COORDINATOR OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK May 7-14, 1942 COMMANY OFFICER Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. A for the Parsident MAY 7-14, 1942 SECRET Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK American sea and air forces lashed out at the Japanese this week in the northern reaches of the Coral Sea to win a victory in which they sank or damaged 21 naval vessels. Although Japanese naval units finally retired from the scene of the battle, the enemy has apparently continued the occupation of the Solomon Islands. Moreover, the availability of naval reinforcements makes it perfectly possible that the Japanese will shortly attempt to renew their forward movement in this area, possible prelude to an assault on Australia. In Burma continuing Japanese successes carried them northward to Bhamo and Myitkyina and effectively closed the last of the practicable alternative land routes from India to China. At the same time they drove up the Burma road into China and struck northwestward toward India, bombing Imphal and Chittagong. This simultaneous inter- est in three primary sectors of the war-Australia, China, and India-left some confusion in the minds of observers as to where the Japanese would strike the next serious blow. In the west the Germans launched an offensive action in the Crimea and claim to be moving rapidly on Kerch. Despite the impressive nature of this thrust, observers were inclined to believe it was still part of the process of "cleaning up" preliminary to the main offensive, rather than actually a part of that more ambitious drive. A recapitulation of this process during the past few weeks reveals that the Nazis have pretty well eliminated existing Russian salients and 1 SECRET SECRET now find themselves less than a hundred miles from Moscow. Harbor in the Solomon Islands. This may have been an A current situation map prepared for this issue focusses operation aimed ultimately at the invasion of Australia attention on the somewhat limited accomplishments of the itself, but the immediate purpose appears to have been the Russian winter offensive, and suggests the extent to which establishment of a secure base on the Japanese east flank, even reliable organs of the American press have distorted designed to protect an attack on Port Moresby. The this picture. occupation of this port on the Papuan coast of New Guinea Meanwhile, the declining intensity of the attacks on Malta would protect the rear of any attempted invasion of north- may mean that the Germans are husbanding air strength for eastern Australia. Moreover, it would eliminate an advanced the offensive in Russia and that during the period of that Allied air base which is close enough to Japanese bases in drive the control of the sea lanes to Tripoli will be of less Northeast New Guinea to supply fighter support for bombers. importance to them. At the same time, as the ice goes out of the White Sea and an increasingly larger flow of lend-lease The Action and the Results supplies can be directed to the port of Archangel, the Nazis While light Japanese forces were concentrated in Tulagi have intensified their attacks on the Arctic sea route. Harbor, the initial Allied air attack was made, resulting in the sinking of a light cruiser, two destroyers, four gunboats, and The Battle of the Coral Sea a supply ship, and damage to other ships. On May 5 and 6 In the Battle of the Coral Sea the Japanese suffered a aerial reconnaissance in the Coral Sea located two aircraft serious naval setback, sustaining heavy losses while the carriers, seven cruisers, 17 destroyers, 16 unidentified war- American forces appear to have won the battle at relatively ships, two submarines, one submarine tender, and 21 transport light cost. The two Japanese aircraft carriers put out of or supply ships. action-one sunk and another probably a total loss-may On May 8 American units made contact with this Japanese have been among Japan's newest and largest, carrying up- force near the small Louisiade Islands, southeast of New wards of 60 planes, although there is as yet no official word on Guinea. In the resulting engagement the American forces this. In addition, the loss of two heavy cruisers-one sunk sank or damaged both carriers and four of the seven cruisers. and one damaged-is a serious blow. As for light cruisers, On Monday, May 11, it was announced that two Japanese the recent action apparently leaves the Japanese with only submarines had been sunk in the Coral Sea area, raising the seven which are afloat, and a number of these-including one total of Japanese ships sunk or damaged in this action to 21. in the Coral Sea-probably have been put out of action Meanwhile the Japanese probably have succeeded in temporarily. setting down light occupation forces on Tulagi, Gavutu and Makambo Islands in the Solomon group, although this has The Mission of the Japanese Task Force not been confirmed. Control of these islands, which com- The action in the Coral Sea was precipitated when a naval mand Tulagi and Gavutu Harbors in the southeastern task force was sighted on May 4 moving toward Tulagi Solomons, would allow the Japanese virtually to dominate these islands. Harbors at the opposite end of the chain 2 3 SECRET SECRET have been under Japanese control for several weeks. News- The Japanese Advance in Burma paper dispatches report that seaplane tenders have landed some stores and equipment also in the Louisiade Archipelago. In northern Burma the Japanese drive has swept on to Since the Japanese appear to have stepped up air opera- envelop strategic Bhamo and Myitkyina, thus cutting the tions against both Port Moresby and Horn Island, off north- last of the practicable alternative land routes from India to eastern Australia, further naval action at an early date is Yunnan and leaving only air transport as a means of travel perfectly possible. The Japanese can always move naval and supply. In the northwest the Japanese continue to push units rapidly southward to the New Britain region from the British back on Kalewa along the route to India. On the Truk area in the Carolines, where reports indicate that the Burma road, however, the Chinese caught an over- they have assembled notable naval strength. extended Japanese mechanized column which had advanced as far as Chefang, some 25 miles inside China. Subjecting the column to annihilating artillery fire, the Chinese forced the Japanese to withdraw, lifting the immediate threat to Imbroglio in New Caledonia Paoshan, important station on the India-Burma air route. Concomitant with these serious Japanese threats in the Press reports indicate, however, that the Japanese have Coral Sea area, political difficulties have arisen to plague the already recovered, and with reinforcements they now seem Free French rulers of New Caledonia, and the High Com- to be moving forward once more in Yunnan. missioner there has been suspected even of playing deliber- Meanwhile Chinese units, previously isolated at Taunggyi ately into the enemy's hands. The trouble arose apparently and virtually given up for lost, have fought their way north as a result of popular distrust of D'Argenlieu, the High Com- and captured Maymyo. Using tactics reminiscent of the missioner. Governor Sautot had been recalled to Free French fighting in China, they threatened the Japanese rear as the headquarters in London in what General de Gaulle later latter were drawn into the artillery trap at Chefang. It is termed a purely routine administrative move, but he refused reported that the Japanese, now reinforced, are attempting to to leave, apparently at popular behest. He was then arrested retake Maymyo. by the High Commissioner, along with four prominent mem- bers of his administrative council. The upshot was a general Reaction in Chungking strike of all workers, and some mob violence. Somewhat enigmatically, the High Commissioner himself Although the Generalissimo has lost some prestige as a has now been arrested and will soon leave the island, accord- result of the collapse in Burma, and some defeatism has ing to a reliable report, but the status of Governor Sautot appeared in Chungking, no faction is strong enough to oust remains in doubt. With American troops now bolstering the Chiang, and it is generally believed that he will continue defenses of New Caledonia, which occupies a position of great the fight against Japan, according to a very reliable and current strategic importance, the situation is one of unusual highly placed source. The Chinese still do not believe that delicacy. the Japanese can conduct a major invasion of Yunnan at this time, in view of the weather and terrain, and there is no 4 5 SECRET SECRET indication of a major Japanese move from Indochina, our Stressing the friendly note on which the conferences be- source concludes. tween Cripps and the Congress leaders closed, our observer Chiang is reported to have told his Army Council that he suggests that back of all the issues on which the negotiations blamed the Burmese debacle in part on lack of cooperation broke down was the solid fact that Britain was already com- from British military leaders. But the Generalissimo in- mitted to India's defense. The Indian leaders knew that if sisted that Japan has now reached the high-water mark of her Britain should win, her offer would in effect still be open. On effort and cannot maintain her present drive much longer. the other hand, if Japan should win, the Indians could explain The coming months will be hard he added, but China that they had not cooperated with the British. What was will come through. Meanwhile, if Russo-Japanese hos- really at stake in the negotiations over the defense issue was, tilities break out, he expects a renewal of fighting on the then, the implicit issue of whether or not India should be given Hunan or Chekiang sectors. a position in which she could, if she so desired, make a sepa- rate peace. Our observer concludes that when the opportunity arises, Indian Defense Again some Indian leaders-besides those like Rajagopalachariar With the Japanese in control of Burma and with the already pledged to cooperation in the war effort-may take bombing of Chittagong and "a small country town in Eastern a stand for armed defense. Nehru certainly has no illusions Assam" (identified by the Japanese as Imphal), the defense about the effectiveness of non-violent non-cooperation as a of India has become something more than an academic weapon against Japan, and he is definitely anti-Japanese. question. General Wavell has already announced the re- Moreover, Gandhi's lieutenant, Ghose, has actually advocated organization of the Army into three mobile commands, and cooperation with the British. Communist elements, many of General Brereton has suggested that American air forces whose leaders are still in jail, favor vigorous prosecution of the will play a significant part in the defense of the peninsula. war. And many younger men, sons of wealthy parents and Apparently the British and American commanders are university graduates, show strong sympathy toward Russia. experiencing few hindrances arising from the Congress For the present, at least, apathy rather than enthusiasm party's objections to foreign control of Indian defense. One or hostility to the British seems to characterize the Indian well placed British observer recently returned from India defense effort. Latest reports on India's morale indicate gen- suggests that the defense of the peninsula is primarily a pro- eral pessimism, among both official and native groups. Nor fessional matter and that the failure of the Cripps' mission is there any apparent readiness to adopt a scorched-earth has actually made little difference. If the Congress had policy in the event of a Japanese invasion. accepted Cripps' proposals, it would have helped chiefly in securing better air-raid precautions throughout India, and Attack in the Crimea perhaps in limiting the number of strikes in industrial plants, and in stiffening public morale. While it is as yet too early to draw conclusions about the current Nazi attack in the Kerch peninsula, it is probable 6 7 SECRET SECRET that this movement, far from being the long-awaited "spring the southern front than the map shows (most of the "allied" offensive," is simply a continuation of local efforts to units are apparently operating in this area; German com- straighten the German lines in preparation for a concerted muniqués point out that Rumanian troops are participating attack later on (The War This Week, April 30-May 7, p. 15). in the attack on the Kerch peninsula). Nevertheless, it is Here, and in the parallel attacks in the Donets area, the probable that the Nazis, even if they do decide to throw Nazi ground troops have apparently had the aid of strong their main weight into a southern offensive, cannot leave air concentrations. According to a Soviet press source, they merely a small holding force against Moscow. The length have even used gas. of the Russian front is so great, and the Soviet army so large, The accompanying map suggests the success of German that a stripping of one sector to permit the concentration of local attacks during the past few weeks. Although the lines overwhelming force in another area-as envisaged in the and shaded areas are based simply on competent estimates original Von Schlieffen plan for attacking France-would rather than on specific reports, they do indicate that the Nazi here appear to be out of the question. attacks have already gone far to wipe out the more advanced Soviet salients established last winter. To the north, the Germans have apparently drawn their lines tighter around Ordeal in Leningrad Leningrad, and may even have relieved the beleaguered 16th In the Leningrad sector, it is the Russians who will probably Army at Staraya Russa. In the center, the Soviet pincers suffer most from the spring thaw. Here a series of Soviet north and south of Smolensk have largely disappeared, and attacks have apparently failed to relieve the city. And soon the Nazis still stand less than 100 miles from Moscow. To the ice will be out of Lake Ladoga-thus eliminating Lenin- the south, the Germans have apparently succeeded in reliev- grad's chief supply line, the railroad laid this winter across ing the almost-encircled city of Kharkov (where the Rus- the lake itself. sians claim to have launched an offensive of their own), and A report from Kuibyshev suggests that before the comple- their line remains anchored at Taganrog on the shores of the tion of this line, the food shortage in Leningrad had reached Sea of Azov. critical proportions. And even after the new link went into In sum, then, the significant net gains of the Russians after service, while workers had enough to eat, babies and non- a winter of ostensibly unremitting counter-offensives, are essential people in general starved in large numbers. A first, the reconquest of Rostov and large areas of the Crimea report from Helsinki, ostensibly based on the testimony of and the Eastern Ukraine; second, the relief of Moscow, deserters and prisoners-of-war, adds further details: evacua- including the capture of Mozhaisk; and third, a large scale tion and death have lowered the population of Leningrad infiltration in the Valdai Hills area, apparently lightly held from about 3.2 million to an estimated 2.5 million this spring. by scattered German units. Of approximately 150 large factories in the city, the report The distribution of Nazi strength on the map is likewise an continues, the Russians have transferred from a third to a estimate. Some of the figures may already be out of date. half inland, many to the Ural area. Those remaining have For instance, there may be by now a greater concentration on endeavored to maintain their output by lengthening the 8 9 SECRET SECRET working day to even as much as 18 hours. But bombard- Russia. One report maintains that the Don, in one area ment and a shortage of raw materials, electricity and fuel, where it is normally a mile across, now forms a lake 30 miles coupled with the poor physical condition of the workers, have wide. greatly reduced production. A lack of adequate bomb shelters, the report concludes, has been responsible for many civilian casualties. Neverthe- Spring Comes to the Arctic Ocean less, a service of 70 airplanes has maintained the city's hos- The battle for the supply routes to Russia continues with pitals. Now, with the ice going out of Lake Ladoga, Lenin- redoubled intensity. In a recent engagement, the Germans grad is girding itself for the coming summer ordeal, although had one destroyer sunk, and another damaged, while the apparently the Russians are confident that they can continue British lost the light cruiser Edinburgh and five supply ships to supply the city by establishing a boat service across the from two convoys-of which, according to Allied reports, 90 lake. percent of the supplies reached Russia in safety. Such losses suggest that both sides regard the northern supply route as a Will the Germans Use Gasi most critical theater, in which they are willing to suffer inordinately heavy damage. Prime Minister Churchill's speech, with its clear warning The months of early summer are the least unfavorable of the to the Germans about the use of chemical warfare, corrobo- rates suspicions expressed by several neutral sources. The year for naval or air action, according to a study recently prepared in the Geographic Division of the Coordinator's Turkish ambassador to Berlin, for example, is evidently of Office. While weather conditions are relatively adverse all the opinion that Hitler will not scruple to employ gas-and bacteria also-on the Russian front. But the German army year round, both for convoys and for their attackers, in winter leaders are hesitant and would consent to the use of these northerly gales and long hours of darkness make naval opera- methods only as a last resort. tions unusually difficult and air activity often impossible. In summer, the dense fogs characteristic of the season would Other observers believe that the recent Nazi propaganda line-including Hitler's reference to British use of "new apparently favor the escape of Allied convoys from air means" of warfare-indicates a readiness to employ gas. In reconnaissance. On the other hand, the long hours of day- Russia, they point out, weather and terrain are favorable, light would be of considerable aid to attacking planes. and the Germany army and chemical industry are well prepared; the latter has been working at high pressure in The Opening of Archangel anticipation of the coming summer. About the middle of this month, the White Sea port of It may be that Nazi preparations for using gas are respon- Archangel will be substantially free of ice. A study prepared sible in part for the current delay in launching an eastern in the East-European Section of the Coordinator's Office offensive. A more plausible reason for that delay, however, suggests some of the implications of the opening of Archangel is the spring flooding of the rivers in Central and Southern as a terminus for American and British convoys. 10 11 SECRET SECRET Since late December, convoys bound for Russia have used much the capacity of the Soviet ports and railways, as the the port of Murmansk, open all through the winter with the amount of shipping which Britain and the United States occasional assistance of an icebreaker. Besides its freedom make available for this route. from ice, Murmansk has at least two advantages over The Intentions of the Finns Archangel: first, it is nearer to Britain and the United States; second, its port facilities may be adapted to more A further argument in favor of the continuing use of Mur- varied shipments, since in the years before the outbreak of mansk is the comparative quiescence of the Finnish army. war, Archangel was important chiefly as an export point for A report from Helsinki suggests that the Germans, fearing a lumber. Finnish collapse, will not ask the Finns to take Soroka this On the other hand, Murmansk is far more exposed to enemy summer. (Once in possession of Soroka, the Finns would attack. Already the Finns have cut the Murmansk-Lenin- control the railroad connecting Soroka with the Archangel- grad railroad south of Soroka. Shipments this winter have Vologda-Moscow line, thus making Murmansk useless as a port had to go over the new railroad from Soroka along the of entry.) The Nazis feel, according to the report, that if they southern shore of the White Sea to Obozerskaya, the junction are victorious over the main Soviet army, the Russian forces in the north will be obliged to withdraw of their own accord. with the railway from Archangel south to Vologda and Moscow. Furthermore, the capacity of Murmansk is con- Meantime, in the Kiestinki sector, the spring thaw is ap- siderably smaller than that of Archangel-about 90,000 to parently working considerable hardship on the Finnish and 120,000 tons per month for the former, and possibly 290,000 German troops. Adequately supplied with food and ammu- tons for the latter. nition, they are, however, unable to evacuate their wounded In short, it seems likely that from now on, the Soviets will over the soggy roads to their rear, and must rely on airplanes use both ports. Despite German bombing of the railway to bring in medical supplies. The Russians, on the other south from Murmansk, its capacity is probably still adequate hand, have adequate all-weather roads in this area, the report concludes. to keep the port clear-that is, barring further damage from the air. Even in that event, the Russians are used to making French Reactions to the Descent on Madagascar rapid repairs on this railroad, having at least once rebuilt a The British descent on Madagascar appears to have ruined bridge in as little as a day and a half. provoked two rather different reactions in metropolitan The railroad south from Archangel, coupled with the river France. The official attitude of Laval's government was facilities of the Northern Dvina, can probably keep clear the hostile, and both Pétain and Darlan sent messages of port of Archangel and the neighboring ports of Bakaritsa and encouragement to the resisting French troops. On the other Ekonomiia. Furthermore, south of the junction with the hand, reports suggest that the popular reaction in France Murmansk railway system at Obozerskaya, the Russians have was one of understanding tinged with a feeling that the act very nearly completed the double-tracking of the line, making was inevitable. a bottleneck at this point unlikely. In fact, the chief limiting The De Gaullists are a case apart. The relatively calm factor in the whole Russian supply problem may be not so attitude of the French public fully justified the exclusion of 12 13 SECRET SECRET the Free French from the attack, it is felt in British govern. ment circles. But in the De Gaullist camp, reports picture Africa's economic plight is reflected in a recent statement by great disappointment and distinct resentment, a sentiment General Nogues that the Moroccan government is seeking an not mollified by current negotiations at Martinique. In any exchange with metropolitan France of food products for cer- event, observers are contrasting the notably different French tain commodities needed in Moroccan industry. The Gen- eral emphasized the importance of haste and declared that popular reaction in the case of Madagascar and in that of the "minutes are precious." earlier joint British-Free French invasion of Syria. A more recent British announcement that the Free French are to assist in the administration of Madagascar may allay to Respite for Malta some extent initial De Gaullist resentment. In one 72-hour period this week the defenders of Malta shot down 101 attacking planes, according to Allied press Laval's Difficulties reports. Coupled with a continuing let-up in air raids over the island, perhaps indicating a shift of Axis strength to the The Germans are already contriving difficulties for Laval Eastern Front, the current success of Malta's defenders may and are now once again tacitly supporting renewed Italian presage a respite for the coming months. That such a claims to the cession of Nice and Corsica, according to reports respite would be more than welcome to the island was ap- which lend some color to the continuing rumors that one of parent in an official British announcement that three- the Parisian collaborationists may presently replace the new quarters of the buildings in Valetta are now uninhabitable. Vichy premier. Yet if the Axis is to continue the neutralization of Malta, Meanwhile it issaid that the Germans are offering Laval the steady bombing attacks will still be necessary. Of course if repatriation of a sizeable number of French prisoners for the the Nazis had decided to attempt the capture of the island, return of General Giraud, who is still at Vichy and not, as they might have ended this drain on their resources once for some newspapers have reported, in the hands of the Germans all. Now, with the sinking of three British destroyers by or the Swiss. The Nazis appear to be considerably disturbed German bombing, it is apparent that the Axis still has a about the plans of the General, who is reported to be as anti- powerful air fleet in the Mediterranean, and that Malta may German as ever and as being "happy to work with the United be enjoying only a temporary respite after all. States." In North Africa recent reports picture certain high French officials as still hopeful that Pétain may hold out against Axis pressure and that North Africa may yet reënter the war on the Allied side (with the help of the United States), what- ever may happen in metropolitan France. To accomplish this end, however, continued American economic assistance is essential, these officials insist. The seriousness of North 14 15 SECRET SECRET effects were intensified by an inability to eat even the meager food allotments because of inordinate swelling of the submaxillary glands, and of the tongue, APPENDIX I gums, and indeed the whole mouth. In such circumstances, adynamia is almost THE CONSEQUENCES OF MALNUTRITION always present: the feet drag; climbing stairs in most painful; all processes which necessitate keeping the arms extended even for brief periods are performed with A case study of the effects of inadequate diet, strictly enforced by effective difficulty. Soon the nervous system is affected, 80 that motor control becomes rationing, has just been received from Belgium, and it will hardly encourage those yet more difficult. There is a numbness of the limbs which hinders all activity. who look forward to the day when the United Nations might count upon assistance Urinary troubles arise and marked disorders in the alimentary canal develop. through internal revolt of peoples under Nazi control. Rather this study suggests There are severe cases of constipation, and even more commonly diarrhea seta in that the rationing of conquered Europe might serve the German effort to maintain and will not respond to treatment. This soon brings increased weakness and the order more effectively in the long run than will Nazi firing squada, Moreover, it loss of weight. is particularly among the urban middle and lower classes that the spirit of revolt Indeed, loss of weight is general and progressive, from about one month after is likely to become progressively weaker, as food conditions demand that more and the rationed diet is instituted. The organism exhausts its store of fats; then the more commodities become subject to rationing. muscular tissues deteriorate. All bones become more prominent. Losses of 50 Today there is no country in which all consumption is rationed. Rationing is and more pounds during one year are common; and there are cases of weight generally introduced for specific commodities as shortages develop. The per- reduction to the extent of 50 percent. centage of total calories provided by rations varies from virtually none in Portugal Actually, this weight loss is concealed to some degree by "famine oedema", to some 90 percent in Germany. Hence, legal rations can nowhere be used as the which occurred among some 90 percent of the inmates receiving no food other sole measure of consumption. than rations. This is a condition in which liquid which cannot be eliminated Nor does the existence of a rationing system mean that the system works. accumulates in the body. Though it is usually localized in the lower limbs, it Certain groups may fare better than others-notably the rural producers who can sometimes spreads and thus hinders breathing and circulation (the oedema withhold their product, and the well-to-do who can purchase in the black market. disappears quickly if sufficient quantities of Vitamin B₁ are administered). This frequently means that adequate quantities are not available for the urban Despite the suffering accompanying these dietary deficiencies, death by starva- consumer in the lower income brackets. Indeed, many such people receive even tion appeared to be painless. Without additional symptoms, many of the less than the rationed amounts of particular foods. prisoners passed away during sleep. From the beginning of the war, there has been & gradual extension of the num- Cases of such malnutrition are undoubtedly to be found throughout Europe ber of countries with some degree of rationing. More important is the ever- today. There are as yet, however, few areas where the bulk of the inhabitants lengthening list of commodities to which control is applied. There is reason to must live on such curtailed dietaries. From all the evidence, it appears that such believe that for most countries the extent of control will become more severe, and conditions prevail most nearly in Greece. Recent accounts (coming from Ankara) the opportunities to obtain free supplementary foods will become more and more reveal a situation in many Greek cities not very different from that described limited. Rations will therefore comprise progressively larger percentages of the above. These accounts tell the same story of weakness, sleepleasness, weight loss total consumption of citizens in any country. and oedemie conditions, alimentary and urinary disorders-and peaceful death. Belgian rations are on a scale similar to those in force elsewhere in Europe. Published reports of a survey among normal consumers in Belgium, from It is not likely, moreover, that the nutrient values supplied by these rations will September 1940 to April 1941, again show conditions differing only in degree from be markedly increased in the future. Hence it is worthwhile to examine the those of the prisoners living solely on legal rations. Other studies give similar effects-physical and mental-of consumption at the level prescribed. The evidence of the results of malnutrition brought about by the First World War, particular observations reported are from & Belgian prison, where for many according to an anlysis now in progress in the Bureau of Home Economica of the months the inmates are known to have been fed nothing more than the legal United States Department of Agriculture. rations. Such a stark view of rationing enforced in its complete rigor suggests All these studies put considerable stress upon other than the physical effects of some of the results which prolongation of the war may bring for an ever-widening malnutrition. Investigators of the early 'twenties pointed out that there was a element of the population of Europe. complete lack of mental aggressiveness among the hungry. During the present The legal Belgian rations provided the prisoners with diets of 1,500-1,850 war, a state of apathy is regularly reported as characterizing the inhabitants of calories, less than three-quarters the number of calories needed to sustain life Greece. In the Belgian prison, the inmates were subject to states of acute depres- when no physical activity is undertaken. The diet was unbalanced: it was sion: listlesaness, lassitude, and lack of interest in life itself were common. The markedly deficient in protein, mineral salts, and vitamins. evidence clearly indicates that persons suffering from malnutrition are not des- The first effect was hunger, 80 severe that the prisoners frequently became perate men readily moved to rash activity. Rather, they are apathetic and indif- diszy, subject to fainting spells, and temporarily blinded. The sensation of ferent people who accept their lot without marked protest. Such men can hunger was 80 acute that sleep was often impossible. In many cases these scarcely be relied upon to assist the United Nations by fomenting internal revolt. 16 17 SECRET SECRET APPENDIX II Southern Luzon the Japanese are said to have found 1,000 tons of drill steel, 500 tons of structural steel, and 1,000 tons of manganese balls ready to ship. And JAPAN'S ECONOMIC GAINS IN THE PHILIPPINES although a considerable amount of petroleum was set afire or used in military operations, there were on hand in the Philippines at the end of November 1941 The economic resources which the Japanese have gained in the Philippines, about 1,100,000 barrels of stocks. A complete estimate of the amount of this while not vital to her war economy, are nevertheless of considerable strategic which fell into Japanese hands is not yet available. importance. In the case of iron, chrome, and manganese ores-commodities which Japan needs-the comparatively short haul from the Philippines will doubtless influence the Japanese to exploit these resources immediately. Although information on the demolition accomplished in the islanda is by no means complete, it is not believed that "scorched earth" tactics have been very successful. The Philippines offer Japan considerable resources in iron ore, which in the past has been one of her most critical needs. Annual production, averaging 60 percent iron content, has run about 1,250,000 tons in the islands. Some of the iron mines were reported to have been flooded and at least one was dynamited. But in the open pit mines of Mindanso, the area of greatest production, destrue- tion is not practicable. A very large unexploited reserve will allow for consider- able expansion in mining. The fact that the Philippine mines are nearer than those in Malaya, and that the Philippine ore is of high quality, may lead to inten- sified exploitation of these resources. Philippine chrome is believed to be sufficient to fill the gap in Japanese require- ments, Approximately 150,000 tons of medium grade ore (40 to 48 percent) were mined there annually prior to the Japanese occupation. The known reserves in Zambeles Province, on Luzon, are estimated at more than 10,000,000 tons, and they are easily accessible. In this area there was some destruction: at Santa Cruz, trucks were removed and the loading pier burned, and at Masinloc the pier was demolished and all equipment was removed. With respect to manganese, an annual Philippine production of 60,000 tons of ore considerably improves Japan's position. The average content is 50 percent. Again the supply is nearer than that in Malaya. The largest and best deposita are on Busuanga, a small island about midway between Palawan and Mindoro. Smaller quantities of high-grade ore also are located on the island of Masbate. No information is available on demolition. Japanese dependence on stockpiles to meet current requirements for copper will be to some extent relieved by requisition of the small Philippine output- about 9,000 tons of metal annually. Japan will also gain & monopoly control of hemp, more than 50,000 tons of which were ready for movement when the attack began last December. It is not known how much of this was destroyed, but in any case an annual production of 200,000 tons will become available to her. Japan is nearly self-sufficient in sugar, but about 300,000 tons were milled, bagged, and awaiting shipment when the Japanese arrived, and annual production is about 1,000,000 tons. The Philippines' 280,000 tons of molasses per year will be useful to Japan for alcohol distillation, as a supplement for fodder, and also as a source for potash. Timber resources will augment the Japanese supply of this important product, and her requirements of copra and coconut oil will be assured. Some reports indicate that trucks and passenger care obtained in the Philippines already are being shipped to Japan for scrap. In the Paracale mining area in GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1942 18 19 CONFIDENTIAL 26 34 FINLAND 8 Lake GERMAN DIVISIONS RUSSO-GERMAN 15 FINNISH DIVISIONS Ladoga 60 Vilouri FRONT HELSINKI PRESENT FRONT 60 LINE OF FURTHEST GERMAN ADVANCE FRONT AS OF MARCH 9, 1942 NORTHERN SECTOR AREA RETAKEN BY RUSSIANS 25 DIV. AREA TAKEN IN RECENT GERMAN ADVANCES 4 DIV. Starcya Russa Bologoe 5 DIV. Riga° o Kholm 2 DIV. X Kalinin, Volga velikie Lukio GERMAN MILITARY MOSCOW FORCES oKuanas CENTRAL SECTOR OSMOLENSK Vyazma INFANTRY is Borogobuzh PANZER 640iv. Minsko Tula 13 DIV. IIIIIIIII MOTORIZED 13 DIV. Sukhinichi Orel MOUNTAIN 52 Brest Litovsk 2 DIV. 52 S.S. Kursk SOUTHERN SECTOR 46 DIVISIONS Belgored Lwów 4 DIV. KHARKOVO Don Volas 1 DIV. Izyum Stalingrad Dnestr 4 DIV. o Cernăuti 2 DIV. Stalino o OTHER FORCES ALLIED WITH THE GERMANS X Taganro THE 7 RUMANIAN DIV. 3 HUNGARIAN DIV. Odessa Dnep ROSTOV 2 SLOVAK DIV. of ITALIAN DIV. SPANISH 'BLUE' SEA o 100 200 MILES Sevastopol o 100 300 KILOMETERS BUCHAREST 44 44 nanube B A S E A 26 34 42 MAP NO. 517, MAY 14, 1942 DRAWN IN THE GEOGRAPHY DIVISION, C.O.I. NUMBER 32 COORDINATOR OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK May 14-21, 1942 DID STATE FORM Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. a MAY 14-21, 1942 SECRET Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK In Burma-as in Malaya-the Japanese have loosed an offensive of unexpected power. They have rapidly driven the British to the borders of India, where the threat would be even more serious but for the imminence of the monsoon. They have moved northward to occupy Fort Hertz and close the last of the alternative land supply routes to China. Finally, they have invaded the western reaches of Chinese Yunnan, and cautious military observers are speculating on the possibilities of a widening Japanese offensive in this area, perhaps even coördinated with a renewed drive in Central China and aiming at final liquidation of the "China incident." In the west the situation-both political and military-is in a state of flux. The occupation of Crimean Kerch gives the Germans a position of some strategic importance if they plan a subsequent drive on the Caucasus. But farther north in the Kharkov sector, neither Russian nor German claims give any precise clues as to the nature and timing of the anticipated Nazi offensive. At Vichy Laval is treading a cautious course, and his failure to espouse a more openly collaborationist policy is now said to be irritating his German masters. And in the Mediterranean outward evidence con- tinues to suggest a lightening of Axis pressure, but an area where air power is of such primary importance is also one where the element of surprise must enter all calculations. 1 SECRET SECRET Burmese Offensive. foreshadow a Japanese attack up the Mekong River valley With the conquest of Burma substantially complete, the designed to flank the Salween River defenses. Japanese have already invaded China on the east and have thrust toward India on the west. Although these drives have J apanese Intentions been momentarily halted by the barriers of the Salween River and the Arakan Mountains, military observers point In the past Chinese leaders at Chungking-including out that the Japanese air and troop concentrations in Burma Chiang Kai-shek-and certain Chinese in Washington have are larger than required for the mere consolidation of gains tended to discount the possibility of a major offensive against already made. Hence they anticipate further moves in the Free China from Burma. News dispatches, however, now direction of China or possibly of India. quote a Chungking government spokesman as warning the The Chinese appear to have recuperated from the first United States that Japan is on the verge of an "all-out" shock of the rapid Japanese advance up the Burma road. offensive against China and that the latter needs help with They have thrown back the invaders from the west bank of the utmost urgency. The Chungking radio also reflects the the Salween and have stifled the immediate threat to the belief that China will be next on the Japanese list, according strategic air center at Paoshan. In the face of this check, to both FCC analysts and BBC broadcasters. American Japanese columns have branched out both to the north and observers in China have not been unimpressed with the pos- south, with the apparent intention of preparing other cross- sibilities of attack from Burma, and in fact have advised all ings at Teng-yueh and Kunlung (see map). They have Americans to leave the Tali area. At Kunming, Chinese already occupied Teng-yueh, through which the only other army headquarters have issued a proclamation suggesting road in this area leads across the Salween, to join the Burma that civilians leave and citing the precedent at Paoshan, road at Paoshan. At Kunlung, where a projected railroad recently raided by a small Japanese force. from Burma to Kunming was to bridge the Salween, the terrain also might facilitate a crossing. Test for War Lords and Appeasers The most considerable Japanese concentrations are believed Whatever their military intentions, the Japanese will to be in this vicinity, but farther south, near Kengtung, the doubtless attempt to capitalize to the utmost the crisis which Chinese have reported heavy fighting. Estimates of Japanese has been created for the Chinese. Thus the threat of immi- strength in this region have ranged from 10,000 to nent danger, following close on the heels of failure in Burma, 30,000 troops, with one report that both heavy tanks will not only furnish Chinese appeasers with new arguments and artillery were being brought into action, but with but may place a severe strain on Chiang Kai-shek's rather actual developments still remaining somewhat obscure. tenuous arrangements with local war lords. This action may have been precipitated by Chinese efforts After the fall of Hankow and Chiang's retreat to the west- to regain contact with troops by-passed by the Japanese in ern provinces, the central government established a modus their mechanized thrust up the Burma road. It may also vivendi with the former war lords, largely without resort to 2 3 SECRET SECRET actual military showdowns. By judicious concentration of different from that in Malaya or the valley of the Irrawaddy. his forces and much compromise, Chiang has been able to Here there are no jungles through which to infiltrate, and the obtain substantial administrative authority over their areas country is so broken by precipitous mountains that mecha- while leaving them considerable local power-political, nized equipment will be largely restricted to the few existing economic, and military. roads. In Yunnan (where there have been strong concentrations Although the Japanese have already driven to the very of Central Government troops) the testing period has opened edge of the Salween, they are now only at the beginning of auspiciously. Governor Lung Yun has announced that the the difficult terrain (see map). At the Burma Road crossing, Japanese would be met with "several hundred thousand there is a drop of 4,500 feet from the top of the mountain pass troops." News dispatches have even reported him dramat- to the bank of the Salween, With the bridge destroyed, ically rallying a weary Chinese formation to counterattack tanks and trucks must find a means to cross a river which is after their own general had committed suicide, following an only 150 yards wide but which is swift and deep. Once unsuccessful attempt to stem the Japanese at the Salween. across, they must again use the road, the only possible means The pressure, however, is not yet serious, and there are other of travel, even for tanks, in the Salween gorge. Off the road, regions-notably Sikang and the Chengtu plain-where local fighting must be done on foot or in the air, and this is true war lords still have considerable military power. of much of the country through which the Burma Road There are no signs as yet of a strongly organized peace passes. The latter will be the key to any fighting in Yunnan. faction in China, according to reliable observers, although Strong air support which could harass the opponent's move- Tokyo is making claims to the contrary. But in the complex ments along this road-and destroy his artillery emplace- mosaic of the Kuomintang there are several cliques which ments-might thus be decisive, either for the Japanese or have been long and widely suspected of leaning toward an the Chinese. arrangement with Japan. Every military reverse, moreover, adds to the strength and boldness of Chungking appeasers, Invasion Routes from Southern Yunnan whose numbers have been augmented recently by wealthy refugees from Hongkong, Singapore, and the Netherlands If the Japanese should elect to drive on Kunming, they East Indies, who are now cut off from their property. would probably coördinate an attack along the Burma Road with flanking movements through southern Yunnan, tactics suggested by the current fighting in the Kengtung area. Terrain in Yunnan Farther to the east, there are at least four other possible If the Japanese launch an offensive in southwest China, they invasion routes-from Indochina. From Laokay, whose will face both lengthening supply lines and a difficult terrain. importance was emphasized this week by an AVG bombing, Hitherto they have succeeded not only in overcoming ob- the Yunnan-Indochina Railway might be followed. The stacles offered by terrain, but they have actually turned them chief difficulty offered by this route is the precipitous nature to advantage. In Yunnan, however, they face a situation of the mountains through which the railway passes, and the 4 5 SECRET SECRET fact that there are no roads until Kaiyuan is reached-a them of access to a valuable base of operations against Japan. distance of 124 miles. Moreover, the Chinese have long Some observers believe, however, that Free China's own since blown up the bridges, and are also reported to have continuance in the war depends more upon the effect of the torn up the tracks. Japanese offensive upon her morale, since no particular area A second and easier route leads from Indochinese Hanoi by is of sufficient strategic importance to her to make its loss a highway to Ha Giang, thence by trail to Wenshan, and finally decisive factor. by motor highway to Kunming (see map). Two further routes lead from Lai Chau by trail-one to Kaiyuan and the Aid to China by Air motor highway there, another through broad valleys to Oshan and by highway to Kunming. The conquest of Burma has cut the land routes from India and left the air as the sole avenue of supply. But transport Japanese Interest in Central China planes, flying from Assam to Yunnan, face the handicap of long hops and heavy gasoline loads (which must in general Military observers are closely watching Japanese move- be sufficient for the round trip). ments in other parts of China. In Chekiang Province reports In northeastern Assam the best airport for transport planes indicate that Japanese troops are seeking out air bases poten- is Sadiya (see map). Before the Japanese captured Manda- tially useful in bombing Japan. More important still, a lay, plans had been made for flying supplies from Sadiya to fresh drive on Changsha in Hunan Province appears to be Myitkyina, a distance of only 200 miles. With Myitkyina in developing. Chinese leaders themselves view the Japanese Japanese hands, freight must be flown from Sadiya to Yun- campaign in Hupeh Province as the greatest current danger nanyi (about 375 miles) or from Sadiya to Sichang (about 400 to Free China. The Japanese have long held Ichang in this miles). province, but between Ichang and Chungking lie the gorges Air experts still maintain that by using about 50 Douglas of the Yangtze, serious handicaps to military operations. C47 or Curtiss C53 transports, supplies can be forwarded to An alternative route to Chungking extends along the Han Yunnanyi or Sichang at the rate of 4,000 to 6,000 tons per River valley to Nan-cheng, thence through a break in the month. But it would be essential for this purpose to maintain Tapa range, where the Kialing River valley stretches down sufficient air strength (including anti-aircraft defenses) in to Chungking and the Chengtu plain. The Chinese recently northeast India to prevent the Japanese from knocking out reported they had stopped a Japanese drive up the Han Sadiya, and in China to protect the Chinese air terminals. River valley, although comparatively small forces appear to Sadiya is of critical importance in this scheme, because if have been involved. it were lost transport planes would be obliged to use the air- There is as yet little indication that the Japanese will now port at Tezpur, almost 200 miles west-southwest of Sadiya, attempt such a grand-scale pincers movement on Chungking making the trip from Tezpur to Sichang, for example, nearly as might here be implied. Such an offensive, if successful, 600 miles. Two-motored transports, such as the C47 and the would be a serious blow to the United Nations, depriving C53, cannot make this trip with a pay load of any size. If 6 7 SECRET SECRET Tezpur is to be used, four-motored transports would be re- The Battle of the Coral Sea in Retrospect quired. Meanwhile, if the Japanese should push on by sea or land into eastern Bengal and Assam, they would effec- Further reports now make it possible to clarify certain tively upset all these plans. elements in the Battle of the Coral Sea. Advance Japanese naval units came southward into the Coral Sea area, then diverged eastward, apparently to seize points in the Solomon Air Raids for India? Islands and thus secure their flank. An American naval force With the British falling back from Burma to the northwest, attacked these units in Tulagi Harbor, sinking seven naval vessels. the Japanese find themselves in a position to threaten India as well as China. Air attacks alone might deal a serious Presently the main Japanese force entered the Coral Sea blow to the Calcutta area, containing about four-fifths of by the same route, presumably on its way to attack Port India's war industry. Here native morale is low, and some Moresby. An engagement followed on May 7 and 8 between reliable observers expect the workers to take to the hills at this force and American naval units and naval aviation, near the first bombing. the Louisiade Islands. The Japanese losses were one aircraft Actual invasion of Assam is another matter. With the carrier sunk and one damaged, and one cruiser sunk and one summer monsoons imminent, this area is subject to the full damaged. American losses have not yet been reported. force of the rain-laden winds from the Indian Ocean. The During the Battle of the Coral Sea American Army Air- advantages of this season are by no means all with the craft were not idle. Based on northeastern Australia, Army defenders. The Japanese now hold the Mandalay basin in Aircraft made a series of heavy raids nearby on Lae and Burma, sheltered from the monsoon by the Arakan Moun- Rabaul, and on Buka, Woodlark and Deboyne Islands, tains, comparatively dry and available for bombers all during between May 4 and 11. One mission returning from an this season. The Japanese also have an all-weather field at attack was reported by the press to have stumbled on the Akyab on the Burmese coast, some 300 miles by air from battle and to have taken aerial photographs of the action. Calcutta. On the other hand, the defenders themselves Another was dispatched on May 8 against a "Japanese have several all-weather fields at Calcutta, but no such fields convoy" (near the scene of the battle) which was not located. elsewhere in this part of India. Still another was sent on May 9 to intercept a Japanese British press dispatches meanwhile report that General carrier, but darkness intervened. Alexander, while discounting the possibility of a Japanese Although the air duel over Australasian bases continues invasion during the monsoon season, is preparing for this unabated, major Japanese fleet units appear to have moved eventuality. Fresh troops of the Indian Army guard the elsewhere. The lull which has followed the battle has led frontier, across which the weary survivors of the Burma some observers to anticipate a naval attack in other areas, campaign are beginning to return. and the possibility of attack against United States bases is not ruled out. 8 9 SECRET SECRET Mop-up on the Kerch Peninsula In the opinion of the Russian ambassador to Turkey, the Soviet resistance on the Kerch peninsula seems to be flick- Soviets launched the assault in an effort to disrupt, the ering out. In the opinion of a well-placed military observer, greatest German concentration of war equipment, including remaining Russian forces are simply holding beachheads to planes and tanks, on the entire Eastern Front. Berlin vigor- permit the withdrawal of the bulk of the army. Unless the ously denies that it has relieved Nazi pressure in the Crimea Soviets reinforce this army from the mainland, it appears or interfered with the German military program. But the unlikely that it can prolong its resistance. ambassador is sure that even if the attack fails in its main Nor does a German attack across the straits toward the purpose of capturing or destroying large quantities of German Russian naval base at Novorossiisk seem to be the next equipment, it will succeed in seriously disorganizing Nazi logical move. The crossing would be difficult and might plans for a full-scale offensive. Such considerations may expose the Nazis to a Soviet counterattack. Furthermore, account for the apparent vigor of German counter-attacks in with the fall of Kerch, the Germans would presumably be the Kharkov sector. in a better position to attack Novorossiisk from the air. Likewise an assault on Sevastopol at the other end of the Laval Continues to Temporize Crimean peninsula would be an expensive operation at the present time. It seems far more likely that the Germans Although Pierre Laval has now been head of the Vichy will continue to soften up Sevastopol by bombardment until government for a little more than a month, he has taken no such time as they can attack it with comparatively small step of an overt character leading to full collaboration with losses. Germany. As Minister of the Interior, he is purging the regime of known opponents, and appointing men of his own Attack on Kharkov choice to key positions. Marshal Pétain, in turn, is reported to "look forward to working in his garden," relieved to be As though to counterbalance the German success on the spared the burdens of office. Pétain is still a factor in the Kerch Peninsula, the Soviet radio and the Allied press have picture, however, for as supreme chief of the French armed been playing up the Russian attack toward Kharkov. De- forces overseas, his orders are obeyed by administrative spite the fanfare with which it has been launched, American officials and officers who might not stomach Laval alone. military observers do not regard this drive as an all-out A current report describes what are believed to have been offensive. If it had been such, they point out, it would Laval's intentions respecting collaboration when he came to probably have taken the form of a large enveloping action office. He is said to have been reconciled to German domina- rather than a head-on attack, and by now it would have tion of the Continent, but to have revived his earlier idea of achieved a more clear-cut success than press despatches yet forming a Latin bloc to act as a sort of counterweight to the reveal. A more likely hypothesis is that it is a local attack Nazis. He appears to have met checks here, however, in which has already brought the Soviet forces within striking Italy's territorial demands and in Nazi hostility to his distance of the city of Kharkov. qualified collaboration. The Nazis have evidenced their 10 11 SECRET SECRET displeasure in the Giraud case and in the current executions in occupied France. They are said to be dissatisfied with Laval Vichy is exploiting to the full the recent clash off Algiers and to be giving encouragement to men like Doriot. involving French and British planes and light naval units, Laval has been anxious to avoid any decisive step that an action which resulted in the loss of one plane by each side. might sever relations with the United States. He is taking Vichy is presenting it as an example of wanton aggression: "Once again the French see what means our former allies advantage of the apathy of the French people to establish are using." himself, and is carefully cushioning his position with regard to Franco-American affairs. Apparently with Nazi approval, he has plastered Vichy with posters, which declare: "I wish Negotiations in Martinique to say again that a final rupture between our two countries In Martinique Admiral Robert, after the issuance of a will not come from France." virtual ultimatum from the United States, has agreed to the immobilization of French warships. He has also agreed in Reactions in French Africa general that the United States will exercise effective super- Diplomatic sources report that since Laval's return to vision of the islands with continued recognition of the French power, gasoline and trucks are again reaching Rommel's position of de jure sovereignty and possession. Meanwhile, armies via French North Africa. French officials in North Laval, obviously irritated by the attempt of the United Africa, however, have hinted their continuing friendliness to States to negotiate directly with Admiral Robert, has at- us and would like to see us renew our economic assistance to tempted to suggest that such negotiations can only be car- North Africa, thereby avoiding the threat of French de- ried on with Vichy, thus confusing the issue in the public mind. pendence on Germany. The German Armistice Commission is urging that French defenses of Morocco be improved. It is stated that the Axis Pause in the Mediterranean Germans are now shipping armaments to this area, with Malta continued to enjoy a relative respite as Lord Gort, further shipments of synthetic gasoline to follow soon. former head of the B. E. F. in France, arrived from Gibraltar General Juin is ostensibly complying, but has expressed the to succeed bomb-worn Sir William Dobbie in command of the opinion that he would rather see Moroccan defenses improved island fortress. There were clear signs that German bomber under American than under German direction. On the other strength in Sicily has been reduced for use elsewhere, but hand, rumors suggest that certain high French officials have diplomatic sources believe that considerable parts of Kessel- been won over to Laval's policy, and that Boisson, the ring's staff and air fleet are still in Sicily. Governor-General of strategic Dakar and former political Indications are that Axis forces in Cyrenaica will not protégé of Laval, has declared himself as highly pleased with launch any major offensive against Egypt this spring. They the changes in Vichy. are, however, prepared for lesser operations, with supplies estimated to be sufficient for one month of active campaigning. 12 13 SECRET SECRET Their forces, including two armored and one motorized divi- Drought Comes to Northeastern Brazil sions, are well-located and in good condition. Skirmishes led by enemy tanks this week, especially in the region southwest Northeastern Brazil is suffering one of its periodic droughts. of Gazala, broke a quiet period on the desert front. This region of "climatic calamities," which is triangular in shape, reaches the coast between São Luiz and Natal, and extends southwestward to an apex somewhere in western A Report on the Near East Baia. Throughout this area rainfall is uncertain; there are Turkey continues in her determination to defend herself places where in one hundred years there have been fifty against any and all invaders, a seasoned observer reports, years of either flood or drought. In this region no rain has writing at the end of March from Istanbul. Her army is kept now fallen for more than a year. The vegetation is parched, in the field and she wants all the arms she can get. Her and the sources of water rapidly disappearing. As usual, great fear is that either Germany or Russia will win a clear- under these circumstances, the inhabitants are flocking into cut victory. To forestall the results of either eventuality the coastal cities, and domestic and wild animals are being the Turks expect to call in Allied help. Diplomatic sources widely slaughtered. report that the Soviets plan to develop the recent Russo- Coming at this time, the drought may have several con- Turkish détente once the bomb trial is over. sequences. The homeless and starving refugees will consti- The Turkish government, our observer writes, has the tute a serious burden on the food supply and on coastal complete confidence of the people in political and military shipping. Civil disorders may be expected, including raids affairs, but in economic matters the situation is acute. Trade on the food stores in the cities, and a fertile field exists for interruptions, budget strain, abrupt price rises, shortages, enemy agents bent on spreading confusion and chaos. It is and governmental inefficiency in handling the situation have even possible that the airfields in this region may be in brought about a general uneasiness as to the economic future. danger of attack, either by disorganized groups or by bands In Syria the Free French, the majority of whom are ap- under Axis leadership. On the other hand, prompt action parently suspicious of British designs on Madagascar and might avert disaster through the recruiting of laborers for Syria, are themselves generally regarded as the old imperial- work in the rubber forests of the Amazon-a repetition of ists operating with reduced efficiency. British and Ameri- the great migration into the Amazon under similar cir- can prestige has also declined due to military defeat and cumstances which took place during the historic drought of association with the Zionist cause, an issue exploited by the 1877-1879. This would require coastwise shipping to carry Axis radio. In Egypt our observer found public opinion the workers from places like Fortaleza in Ceara to the in a bad state, with the British, the Palace and its satellites, Amazon. and the Wafd all hard at work interfering with one another in a snarl of old methods and lack of coordination. The Dominican Republic "Elects" a President The Dominican Republic went through the formality of a presidential election on May 16 in which Generalissimo 14 15 SECRET SECRET Rafael L. Trujillo was the unopposed and successful candi- demonstration fomented by the government. It is alleged date. A former president of the country from 1930 to 1938, that Trujillo gives lip service to the democracies in order to he will replace M. de. J. Troncoso de la Concha. Since obtain United States support for his regime. 1930 Trujillo has been the acknowledged dictator of the country, and on January 20 of this year he was appointed Chile Moves Toward a Break with the Axis by the president to the supreme command of the Army and Chilean Government leaders are reconsidering the possi- Navy. Present world conditions were used to justify his return to the presidency. bility of a break in diplomatic relations with the Axis powers, The election was the first in the history of the country in current indications suggest. The Socialist Party, headed by which women were allowed to vote. Dominican exiles in Oscar Schnake, has recently been adding its influence to that Cuba and Venezuela carried on a vigorous pre-election cam- of the Communist Party in favoring such a move. While the United States has avoided any appearance of bringing pres- paign against Trujillo's dictatorship as inconsistent with the sure to bear on Chile for a break with the Axis, it has become democratic principles of the United Nations. They pro- tested particularly against the decision of the University of apparent to Chile's leaders that no substantial economic aid Pittsburgh to award Trujillo an honorary degree. Never- will be forthcoming from us until this issue is squarely met. theless, the election was not accompanied by any reported It may be partly for this reason that the proposed visit of a Chilean Commission to the United States to discuss Chile's disturbances. critical economic needs has been delayed. Although Trujillo's term was not scheduled to begin until August he took office immediately. President Troncoso appointed him Secretary of State for War and Navy to suc- ceed his brother, Hector Trujillo, just resigned. Troncoso then submitted his resignation to the National Assembly which unanimously accepted it. Then in accordance with the constitution, Trujillo automatically succeeded to the Presidency. Reliable evidence indicates that the Nazis are carrying on widespread activity in the Dominican Republic despite the fact that the government has declared war against the Axis. Since 1935 the Dominican government has maintained close diplomatic relations with Germany, and the Trujillo party was reorganized along Nazi lines. The press enjoys no liberty, and no party except Trujillo's is permitted to exist. Army officers are Nazi sympathizers. Nazi agents are either still at large or have been released as a result of "popular" 16 17 SECRET SECRET APPENDIX I APPENDIX II THE PROBLEM OF RUBBER IN THE SOVIET UNION THE JAPANESE POSITION IN FUELS AND NON-FERROUS METALS In the field of synthetic rubber the Russians probably led the world in June 1941, both in experience and production, according to & current report prepared Lack of fuels and non-ferrous metals will not notably handicap the Japanese by the East-European Section of the Coordinator's office. The Russian policy war effort, according to such estimates as can be made on the basis of available of preparedness, designed to obtain a maximum degree of self-sufficiency in information. Nor do the Japanese lack facilities for mining strategie fuels and strategic raw materials, had led to a rapid expansion of synthetic rubber produc- metals. Of fourteen of these, Japan is not completely self-sustaining in any. tion in the Soviet Union. Before the outbreak of the war in 1939, the Russian But she can supply her deficits adequately for three-tin, tungsten, and coal- rubber industry had accomplished an almost complete change-over from natural from functioning occupied territories. to synthetic rubber. In recent years it has also given much attention to the For five others-manganese, chromium, aluminum, oil, and lead-she has development of domestic sources of natural rubber. But the actual production sufficient stocks with which to service her economy without restriction, until she of this type of rubber still remained small in June of last year. can restore to former capacity sources in conquered areas which have been dis- Even with this farsighted program, in 1940 Soviet domestic production of raw organized by recent military operations (the assumption here is that she will not rubber, plus imports-the total estimated at somewhat more than 103,000 metrie be handicapped by difficulties of organization or by the repewal of war in these tons & year-was probably inadequate to fill Russia's consumption requirements- areas). In the case of lead, invisible stocks, such as pipe in buildings, are large and estimated at 110,000-117,000 tons. Thus, if these estimates are correct, Russia easily recoverable, so that Japan should suffer no shortage until the captured in 1940 was drawing on previously accumulated stocks for a part of her current mines can be reorganized. For another metal, zine, stocks are insufficient unless consumption. Nor in it likely that the war has eased the situation. For in- the captured mines can start producing very soon. creased military demand in all likelihood has offset even the most severe restric- tions on civilian consumption. Mineral Period stocks will bridge Adequate sources It is estimated that synthetic rubber (made almost entirely from alcohol) ao- counted for a production of 82,000 metric tons in 1940, During the first few Manganese 6 years Philippine Islands, British Malaya, and Netherlands Indies combined. months of the war synthetic production probably declined to a rate of about Chromite 4 years Philippine Islands. 36,000-48,000 metric tons per year. There is some ground for thinking, however, Bauxite 2 years Netherlands Indies and British that in recent months the output has increased. Nevertheless, unless both im- Malaya combined. ports and domestic production have recently increased very substantially, it is Oil 2 years Netherlands Indies. Lead 6 months Burma. almost certain that the Soviets face an acute shortage of raw rubber, & shortage Zine Negligible Burma. which may, unless alleviated, necessitate a very substantial curtailment of the use of this commodity in essential military equipment. One favorable factor in the situation is that the very large military establish- For the rest-copper, nickel, molybdenum, antimony, and mercury-sources ment economizes rubber by the extensive use of tires of steel and hard-rubber on now available to Japan will be insufficient after she exhausts her present stocks, artillery equipment, and by the widespread substitution of caterpillar-tractors Through the conquest of the Far Eastern area, however, Japan could fill her for pneumatic-tired trucks as prime movers for artillery. deficits in nickel and antimony and improve her position in the other three. Japan has productive copper mines and could increase their output adequately by the time stocks run low. Stocks of nickel, mercury, and molybdenum are sufficient for two years or more. But Japan has drawn heavily on her antimony stocks in the last two years and has endeavored, as yet without success, to gain control of the transport system in the Chinese province of Hunan (Changsha), which contains the principal Chinese antimony mines. 18 19 SECRET SECRET Proportion of requirements Unconquered Far-Eastern sources JAPAN'S PRESENT POSITION IN IMPORTANT FUELS AND Metal covered by Stock Pile NON-FERROUS METALS sources now Limit available (Peroent) Chief Countries Proportion of require- ments they could cover Japanese Empire and Manchuria Production in 1940 Nickel 50 Antimony 2 yr New Caledonia 15 3 mo China (Hunan) Entire deficit. Commodity Occupted areas Other Mercury 5 2½ yr Do. Consump- Produe- Stocks Far- Molybdenum 40 China (Kweichow) 15 yr 20 percent. tion tion (Jan. 1, Esstern World total Copper Australia 1942) 18 percent, Organized Disor- coup- 55 16 mo Australia and Indía ganized tries 10 percent. In thousands of metric tons the effective military use of most minerals which Japan controls in abundance is Processing these minerals after they are mined may present difficulties, and circumscribed by her steel capacity. This capacity is still only one-tenth that Coal 75,000 70,000 (1) 14,600 2, 850 54,000 1,633,600 of the United States, and any substantial increase would involve great difficulties Copper 230 110 140 (1) 15 26 2, 300 Lead 120 25 20 for War a country of Japan's industrial potential already engaged in a major war (The (1) 88 277 1, 750 Zine 90 60 (1) 6 30 190 1, 815 This Week, April 16-23, pp. 21-24). Tin 12 2 4 25 136 21 245 In view of the fact that Japan has not issued pertinent statistics since the Bauxite 300 0 600 (1) 338 16 4, 627 inception of the China incident in mid-1937, one must in general resort to esti- Aluminum 100 90 10 0 0 0 800 Manganese 120 70 300 2 75 866 5, 250 reliable mates, which may vary substantially, about the present Japanese position. Fairly Chromite 60 40 80 o 193 107 1, 210 1940 data, however, are available for production in Far Eastern Nickel 9 2.5 10 0 3 9 130 outside the Japanese empire. These data, which probably reflect potentialities areas Tungsten ore today with reasonable accuracy, are shown in the appended table in conjunction (60% WO2) 5 25 (1) 3.6 7 10 32 with estimates of the present situation in the Japanese empire. The use of other both. ores besides bauxite for the production of aluminum explains therinelusfon of In metrie tons alloys of manganese, chromium, nickel, tungsten, and molybdenum are more Ferro- The aluminum content of bauxite is between 20 and 25 percent. Molybdenum 300 125 2, 500 0 0 55 21,220 less interchangeable, a fact which probably accounts for tremendous additions or to Antimony 4,000 150 1, 000 390 126 7, 372 34,000 stocks of some-especially molybdenum-when supplies of others were cut off. Mercury 600 20 1, 400 o o 117 6, 000 In thousands of barrels Petroleum (35,000) 2, 639 75,000 o Petroleum substi- 77,000 to 6,300 2,150,000 5, 700 0 160 0 tutes (50, 000, 110,000 Japanese Empire: Japan, Korea, Formoss, Southern Sakhalin. Organised occupied areas: Indochina, Thailand, occupled China. Disorganized occupled areas: British Borneo, Burma, British Malaya, Netherlands Indies, Philippine Islands, Hongkong (lead). Other Far-Eastern countries: Australia, Free China, India (British and Portuguese), New Caledonia, New Zealand, Papus (manganese), Northern Sakhalin (petroleum). Continental Siberia is not Included. I Negligible. Four additional metals-magnesium, vanadium, cobalt, and beryllium-are important in war, but pertinent data concerning them are almost completely lacking. Reports indicate that Japan is producing unprecedented amounts of magnesium, which occurs in large quantities and presents chiefly a problem of extraction. The Japanese have not greatly developed the use of vanadium in 20 alloys and presumably obtain all they need from byproducts in the burning of 21 SECRET SECRET fuel oll-especially oil from Venezuela and Colombia, which is rich in vanadium. cobalt production and stocks are low in relation to potential demand, but other Little is known about the Japanese positions in cobalt and beryllium. Japan's in lium, a comparative newcomer in the field of alloys, has as yet little application metals can take the place of cobalt in ferro-alloys with minor exceptions. Beryl- ore in 1940 and 1941. Japan, although she imported at least ten tons metal content of beryllium APPENDIX III SCANDINAVIA AND THE GERMAN WAR ECONOMY Ever since Germany overran Denmark and Norway in 1940 as a preliminary to her Western offensive, Scandinavia has had & triple importance to the war. Norwegian air and naval bases have served in operations against Britain and the northern supply lines to Russia; Finland's bases and troops have been employed against Russia and the Murmansk supply route; finally the strategic resources of the entire region have contributed substantially to German war production. The accompanying chart shows the relative importance of Scandinavian min- eral production to the German economy. Scandinavian mineral and timber resources, manufactured products, and, to some extent, foodstuffs are now being exported to Germany. Although, in return, Germany sends some commodities to the area, notably coal and pig iron to Sweden, and foodstuffs to Finland, the balance is heavily in her favor. It is not, however, the size of Germany's favor- able trade balance, but rather the strategic nature of several Scandinavian prod- ucta that makes the area of importance to the German economy. Iron ore.-Germany has no shortage of iron ore. In the Ukraine alone Ger- many holds resources, probably unused, of fully 16 million tons a year. Never- theless Swedish ores, which are believed to be going to Germany at a rate of 12 million tons per year, are of great importance to the Nazi economy. They are of high metallic content, averaging 60 percent, and their conversion to steel, therefore, involves savings in coke and manganese, both of which are relatively scarce in Germany. Also to change over German furnaces, labor and transport facilities for the use of other ores would involve loss of time and efficiency. Molybdenum.-German technology has been making increasing use of molyb- denum as a substitute in various steel-hardening alloys, of which the Reich is believed to have barely adequate supplies. Scandinavian sources, amounting to at least 22 percent of the total German molybdenum supply, are thus of some importance, and may be enhanced if recent reports of large scale increases in Norwegian output are correct. Nickel.-Norwegian nickel production (1,250 tons) normally constitutes about one-third of the total continental supply. Reports indicate that an additional 5,000 to 10,000 tons (metal content), not shown on the accompanying chart, will be exported from the Petsamo district of Finland in 1942. This may significantly ease Germany's tight position in steel-hardening alloys. Copper.-The German position here is barely adequate. Loss of the copper flowing from Scandinavian areas, amounting perhaps to 30 percent of the total current German supply, might have repercussions on the war economy. Recent reports indicate that Scandinavia is expanding its contribution here. 23 22 SECRET SECRET Aluminum.-Scandinavis is not a major element in the 500,000 tons of virgin aluminum which Germany was estimated to control in 1942. Norway's pre-war STRATEGIC MINERALS IN SCANDINAVIA production of 30,000 tons was cut in half by the war, and German schemes for its expansion have apparently been abandoned in favor of a Hungarian program. Pyrites.-Germany has ample sources of pyrites, and thus sulphur, with major deposita in Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The loss of the Scandinavian system. deposits would probably involve only slight reorganization in the sulphur supply Tungsten.-Swedish tungsten output is small relative to Portugal, Germany's principal source. It is in fact likely that Germany is not receiving directly any Swedish tungsten, though benefitting indirectly from the high grade steel products coming from Sweden. Timber and its products.-Aside from the strategic minerals Scandinavia's largest contribution to the German war effort consists of its significant exports of PYRITES TUNGSTEN COPPER timber, paper, and wood pulp. The demand for wood pulp has increased, cellulose being an important element in the manufacture of explosives and substitute textiles and fodder. Should this long-established source of pulp, paper and cardboard be lost, Germany would have extreme difficulty in finding adequate alternative sources or substitutes. Foodstuffs.-At present Finland is a deficit food area, drawing some imports, largely sugar and bread grains, from the Reich and from Sweden, itself a alight surplus area except for fodder. Norway is under an enforced food shortage as a result of sending quantities of fish to Germany. Shipbuilding.-In 1941 Norway and Sweden produced together an estimated 185,000 tons of merchant shipping, amounting to fully 26 percent of the estimated tonnage turned out from shipyards under German control. Despite the probable existence of considerable idle shipyard capacity in Europe, this contribution in IRON ORE MOLYBDENUM NICKEL ALUMINUM important because the Scandinavian yards are well-run and well-manned. Industrial Production.-Sweden is importing coal and coke in quantity from Germany to maintain her economy. In return she exports semi-manufactured metals and finished machinery, tools, motors, etc. These items were 22 percent of Sweden's exports in 1938, and production has probably not declined. This 100% 100% saves Germany much skilled labor of a type notably scarce on the Continent. Summary.-The net contribution of Scandinavia to the German war effort, though not large in monetary terms, is thus extremely important strategically, 75% most notably 80 in the cases of steel-hardeping alloys, machinery, copper, and to a 75% lesser degree, iron ore, shipbuilding, and wood pulp supplies. Account must be taken, however, of the goods which Germany provides Scandinavia in exchange. 50% 50% 40 37% to 29 25% 25% 75% 22 / 18 / 10 5% 10% APPROXIMATE PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EUROPEAN AXIS SUPPLY IN SCANDINAVIA 24 25 SECRET SECRET than the "first line strength" as defined above. With & given first line strength, the number of planes ready to fly is less during periods of active operations than in periods of inactivity, since increased activity requires increased time spent in servicing. The Labor Factor APPENDIX IV A second factor is the labor supply situation in Germany itself. It is probable ESTIMATES OF GERMAN AIR STRENGTH that a working force of about a million would be required in German airframe, Estimating the air strength of our enemies is at best a tricky business. engine, and equipment factories to produce 2,500 new planes a month (all types), computation contains 80 many variables and 80 many unknowns that Any provide spare parts, and repair damaged aircraft. This production figure im- estimates necessarily show wide variations. Yet there is apparently substantial current plies an expansion of 29 percent from an estimate of 1,900 planes a month for the beginning of 1941. Such an expansion would have required an increase of agreement on certain figures; experts currently regard 1,800 to 2,000 as safe something like 250,000 workers in factories alone-plus those employed in con- fair average for German monthly production of combat types, and 4,300 to 5,000 a as a estimate of first line strength. structing the new plants themselves, in providing raw materials, and in sup- estimates run all the way from less than 2,000 to more to 10,000 planes. One It is in the figure for reserves that the real discrepancies occur. Competent porting services. In other words, although the German government assigns a high priority to aircraft production, it is at least questionable whether they have been able to source It is of these variations is the incompleteness of our figures on German air losses, make available & labor supply adequate for contemplated expansion. Prior to the will obvious that a small percentage variation in the estimates of losses month Russian campaign, they followed a practice of releasing men from the armed date. cause a very large percentage variation in the estimate of reserves per at forces for industrial work in periods of military inactivity-thus relieving the strain While RAF reports on planes shot down on the Western Front a in given the on industrial manpower. Since the spring of 1941, however, when the Nazis Mediterranean are no doubt reliable, any totals for German aircraft lost in or Russia undertook full mobilization in preparation for the Russian campaign, they have are simply estimates, Furthermore, non-combat losses and the wastage of combat been unable to continue this policy and in recent months have resorted to addi- thumb planes in training schools are impossible to gauge with any exactitude: the rule of tional call-ups and comb-outs for military service. Although the government has too optimistic, ratio of 1:1 used in estimating combat as against non-combat losses may be sought to offset this drain by the employment of women and foreign workers in increased numbers, and by curtailing certain civilian industries, it is doubtful Variation in the method of computing reserves is & further source of discordant whether such measures have been effective enough to permit further expansion of figures. the The most obvious method is, of course, to add German production since armament production. usual total to subtract combat, other operational, and training losses. A more this start of the war to an estimate of air strength in September 1939, and from actually committed in certain critical theaters. Exponents of the first method method is, however to base deductions on the number and activity of planes are likely to arrive at a considerably higher figure than those who follow the second posed method, to and combat. to suggest the existence of a hidden reserve of strength not yet ex- Definition of First Line Strength Two further factors are of prime importance in any estimate of German air clude power. The first is the definition of first line strength-here considered to in- trainers all combat types assigned to operational units, but to exclude transports, One and combat types used for training or held in stored of under resources-men, materials, and equipment-necessary to sustain that strength is bound to note the smallness of first line-strength in relation reserves. to the volume part a plane's life is spent undergoing routine maintenance and a repair. Con- of active conditions of operation and combat. Furthermore, considerable sequently the number of planes ready to fly at any one time is considerably smaller 26 27 PRINTING OFFICE 1943 CONFIDENTIAL 92 24 96 96 IOD 102 104 106 BURMESE THEATER OF OPERATIONS Active Fronts os of May 21# All Weather Rood Railway DM. Goupe) 30 30 Fair Weather Rood - I Roilway Dismontled Proprosed Route Rollwoy Under Construction Trail Airfield Goting Neikiong BRONGKING o Scole of Miles o 100 200 Suity Supplign 28 28 Siehal) Teuny o tengeing BENAD Chootung o Brohmaputra Lichiong Startforg 26 Everythuan 26 As Pingthuan Anony 57% Tenglyper 24 Poseh 24 sittoung Wonfide sucrew Neiyugs Keinuo Mangtas Loshio No Giang o Lookoy Handow 22 22 Lei Charge Monrel Mognyo MANGALLAY Salmeen Burnue More Hand Numang Sing Tounggyl 92 94 96 96 100 102 104 106 MAP NO. 546 - MAY 21, 1942 DRAWN IN THE GEOGRAPHY DIVISION, C.O.I. NUMBER 33 SECRE COORDINATOR OF INFORMATION THE WAR THIS WEEK May 21-28, 1942 Printed for the Board of Analysts REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED Copy No. a MAY 21-28, 1942 SECRET Coordinator of Information THE WAR THIS WEEK With a continuing lull in the Melanesian area and with a decline in the intensity of operations in the Burmese-Yunnan theater, the Japanese have shifted their attention momen- tarily to eastern China. Here apparently the immediate object of their operations is to eliminate the Allied air menace in the provinces of Fukien and Chekiang. Meanwhile in the see-saw struggle about Kharkov it appears that the Germans have once more gained the initia- tive, although convincing indications of a major Nazi thrust are still lacking. On the propaganda front, it is reported that the Germans are seeking to add momentum to the cur- rent surge of war optimism in the United States, which has been stimulated by buoyant American exaggerations of Allied success. In the same connection, persistent American press discussion of the weakening of the German domestic and military position finds little substantiation in careful studies of the situation by experts. In western Europe the Germans are playing the old game of divide and rule. With Laval still temporizing, the Nazis appear to welcome, if not to abet, the current Italian cam- paign for French territory. It remains to be seen whether this lever will prove sufficiently strong to force fresh conces- sions from Laval in the form of closer collaboration with Germany. The only Allied success of real importance was the entry of Mexico into the war. Observers emphasize above all the political significance of that step, whose influence will be strongly felt throughout Latin America, it is believed. 1 SECRET The Japanese Drive in Eastern China While comparative quiet prevails on other Pacific fronts, the fighting in China has spread rapidly over the eastern provinces of Chekiang and Fukien and continues, somewhat abated, in Yunnan. In Chekiang, Japanese columns con- verging upon Kinhwa have been thrown back with heavy losses, according to Chungking, although Tokyo insists that the town is surrounded and the Chinese are trapped. An- other Japanese force has completed the occupation of islands near Foochow (Fukien), after debarking under cover of heavy naval and aerial bombardment. Foochow itself has also been under heavy fire, and newspaper despatches indicate that an expeditionary force is now massing at Formosa, possibly for an attempt to invade Fukien province through Foochow and Amoy. Since the American air attack of April 18, the Japanese have systematically sought out and bombed airfields not only in Chekiang and Fukien but in Kiangsi, Kwangsi, and Hunan. Japanese planes made 54 flights over these five provinces during the month following April 18, according to one unofficial tabulation. Twenty-two towns were bombed. Kian in central Kiangsi (see map) was raided 13 times by a total of 182 planes, while Chuhsien also suffered heavily. The present fighting in Chekiang province probably has as its principal objective the elimination of bases from which Japan could be bombed, although air distances even from Chekiang are at the outer limits of the tactical range of four- motored bombers. The maximum range of the heaviest four-motored bombers (allowing a gasoline margin for fight- ing at full throttle) is about 1000 miles, with a normal tactical radius of 750 to 900 miles. Tokyo is about 1100 miles from bases in Chekiang. BOMBING RANGES CHINA TO JAPAN 150 Figures represent air line distance in statute miles. SCALE o IDO 200 300 400 500 MILES M 4 SHANSI HOPEH SCALE SHENSI 4. o 500 1000 MILES is Hwang. (no course Halang-ho OLA Opiren R HONAN 1 SHANTUNG ADIVOSTOR + * / KWEI HUPEH EICHOW H 5 A is / ANHWEI & & so. HUNAN { INFORMATION 3 / & kians N / KIANGSI X I the $ chineck Niewo OSANA YAWATA S NAGASAKI 1329 1131 2 / YAWATA 826 981 H 0 NAGASAKI 675 Kiana OSAKA 294 TOKYO 1522 A / TUNG FUKIEN Exencing w A SHIKOKU TOKYO TE20 forrol s OHONG KONG Swotow Ano My DATE / " 12: 13g. 60£ N MAP / FORMOSA / to " ". TOROOD ISLANDS 134. GEOG. RESTRICTED DIV. MAY C.O.I. " 1942 D 0 / 130. RYUKYU 10. SECRET Of the eastern air bases in Chinese control, only those in Chekiang lie within practicable range of important targets in Japan (as the accompanying map indicates). Bases in Fukien, such as Kian, are too far distant for comfortable bombing of such targets as Tokyo and Osaka, the obvious industrial objectives on Honshu. Nagasaki, the shipbuilding and manufacturing center on Kyushu, is barely within the maximum range. From Lishui in Chekiang, however, Naga- saki would be comparatively accessible, as would Yawata, site of the very important Imperial Steel Mills. Targets on Formosa, of course, would be within easy range: either Taihoku, the chief city at the northern end of the island, or Takao, an important naval base in southwestern Formosa. Chinese "Magnetic" Tactics Operations in the eastern provinces are already settling into the familiar Chinese pattern of "magnetic" tactics, in Chungking parlance. The Japanese have been drawn out, their formations dispersed, and their communication lines over-extended. And now the Chinese are capitalizing on the enemy's exposure and attacking points in his rear, Chungking reports. One Chinese detachment has recaptured Sintang, cutting off the communications of a Japanese column engaged in the attack on Kinhwa. Although the Chinese have reported 100,000 or more Japanese troops in action in northern Chekiang alone, ob- servers are inclined to place the figure at possibly 50,000 troops. As a matter of fact, some observers believe that military action in the eastern area-either in Chekiang or Fukien-is not of primary importance in any scheme for concerted action to crush the Chungking regime. They point out that the Japanese at about this time last year occupied Foochow for a short period, later withdrawing voluntarily. The Japanese also staged at that time one of 3 SECRET SECRET their routine drives inland from Hangchow and the Chekiang Fresh Soviet-Japanese Détente coast. The long-standing border dispute between the Soviet- In addition to destruction of the air bases, the Japanese sponsored Mongolian People's Republic and Japanese- may also seek to disrupt traffic on the railway west of Kinhwa sponsored Manchukuo is now settled, according to Tokyo which carries important freight and connects with truck and-with some reservations-Moscow as well. A protocol routes south and west through central Kiangsi. Further for demarcation of the mutual frontiers has been ratified by objectives may be the disruption of Chinese transport of salt the governments of both of these remote "buffer" states. from coastal works inland, where there is a serious shortage, Following as it does the conclusion of the Russo-Japanese and possibly the seizure of the winter wheat harvest. Fisheries' agreement on March 20, the ratification of the boundary treaty indicates that on the surface at least Russo- New Threat to Changsha? Japanese relations in the post-Pearl Harbor period have not deteriorated. The Japanese have three times assaulted Changsha, Tokyo made the announcement by radio May 15. Al- strategic center on the Canton-Hankow railway. There is though a Moscow report has indicated that the protocol refers some evidence that a fresh drive on that city may be immi- only to the Bor Nor section, and not the whole frontier, it nent. If the Japanese could seize Changsha and make them- seems likely that at least temporarily the ratification of the selves masters of both the Peiping-Hankow and Canton- protocol formally solves one of the most troublesome of the Hankow railroads, they would possess a continuous rail route border issues between Mongolia and Manchukuo. Serious from Manchuria to Hongkong. The consequent saving in incidents occurred along the border in 1935 and 1937, and shipping and sea risks would be a notable gain. In addition, those at Nomonhan in early 1939 assumed the proportions with this line in their hands, they would be in a position to cut of an undeclared war. On September 15, 1939, a fortnight off effectively eastern China from Chungking control. after the outbreak of the European war, Russia and Japan agreed to end hostilities and to form a joint commission to An Irreparable Japanese Loss. establish a frontier line. The Japanese suffered an irreparable loss of a unique character when they recently lost a 15,000-ton vessel by Warning to India enemy action, according to a report by the Vichy ambassador in Tokyo. The latter declares that 2,000 expert technicians Premier Tojo, warning that all British outposts for the selected from various industries in Japan were lost from a protection of India are now in Japanese hands, has suggested total passenger list of 2400. The Japanese were sending to the Indians that they must either take "this golden these technicians to the conquered areas in the southwest opportunity" to eject foreign troops or suffer the con- Pacific where they were to reëstablish and develop captured sequences. Observers are not yet inclined to discount these threats too completely. The comparative lull in fighting on plants. the Burma-Yunnan front may indicate that the relatively 5 4 SECRET SECRET large concentrations of Japanese troops in Burma will be cooperation between Jinnah and the other two leaders. turned against India, rather than China. A recent AVG They concede, however, that a coalition of Nehru, Raja- raid on Japanese positions on the Yunnan front met little gopalachariar and those who agree with them in support of resistance, and despatches from Calcutta report that Japanese full war against Japan might yet prove strong enough to scouting parties are active in the Chittagong area. However, combat Gandhi's present influence. the British commander in this area still acknowledges no signs of enemy intention to launch a major offensive on India, according to newspaper reports. Turning of the Tide at Kharkovi As the Russians reported the orderly evacuation of the last of their troops and equipment from the Kerch peninsula, A New Basis for Indian Cooperation? there were indications that their offensive against Kharkov In an address at Lahore in which he advocated a war was likewise taking a turn for the worse. The ominous state- federation of India, China, Iran, and Afghanistan, Pandit ment in a Soviet communiqué that Russian "troops en- Jawaharlal Nehru made clear once again his position on the trenched themselves in occupied positions" suggested that current conflict: "It was my ardent wish that India should the initiative had passed to the Germans. In one area the have participated in this war." Nor did he question the Soviets admitted that the Nazis had driven a "wedge" into motives of American aid in Indian defense-in contrast to a their positions, and in the Izyum-Barvenkova sector south statement of Gandhi's a few weeks ago. Furthermore, while of Kharkov, the Red Army announced that its advanced reiterating his inalterable opposition to the partition of units had "repelled fierce enemy infantry attacks." Mean- India, Nehru seemed to offer some basis for compromise time, the Nazis blandly claimed that the operations south of with the Moslem League by his statement that if "a majority Kharkov had "developed into a battle of encirclement," of a particular territorial unit want separation, it cannot be threatening "the bulk of three Soviet armies, including strong denied them." tank forces." Such a speech may possibly suggest that Nehru is prepar- The Allied press comforted itself with the reflection that ing to take a different line from Gandhi, now once again the the Russian assault on Kharkov might have disorganized the dominant figure in Indian politics since the adoption by the Nazi timetable for a spring offensive. On the other hand, Congress of his program of non-violent non-coöperation according to despatches from Bern, German military circles (The War This Week, April 30-May 7, pp. 9-11). An predict that the Kharkov defensive will eventually develop observer in New Delhi maintains that the only apparent into a crushing Nazi offensive-the operations around Khar- way to counteract Gandhi's program would be for Nehru to kov being an interlude between the Soviet winter drive and combine with Jinnah, head of the Moslem League, and with the coming German offensive. Rajagopalachariar, moderate leader from Madras (who re- signed from the Working Committee of the Congress in protest against its present program), to organize a national government. Other observers question the practicability of 6 7 SECRET SECRET operations against such points as Rostov. With about 150 Ministerial Change in Finland divisions the Nazis can neutralize Russia, while using 70 to Despatches from Helsinki announce the resignation of 80 elite divisions for a decisive blow against England. Pekkala, Social Democratic minister of finance and reputedly In predicting this attack, our observer cites an astronomical a friend of the United States. Finland's outstanding Social figure for German air strength-more than double any of Democrat, Väinö Tanner, has taken Pekkala's place, while a the estimates now current in Allied intelligence circles. He third member of the same party, Uuno Takki, will fill Tanner's further envisages Nazi use of thousands of gliders for troop former position as minister of commerce. The Social Demo- transport. The invasion might well start, he concludes, cratic party, torn between patriotism and pro-democratic with the landing from gliders of innumerable guerrilla detach- sympathies, in the past months has been an equivocal factor ments, who would avoid large population centers and mili- in Finnish foreign policy. In the cabinet, according to reports tary camps, and concentrate on capturing airfields and de- from Helsinki, Tanner has generally taken a stand midway stroying lines of communication. between Ryti and Witting-pledged to active prosecution of There can be little argument with our observer's conten- the war to the bitter end-and Pekkala, who on several tion that the conquest of Britain would be a more decisive occasions has expressed disapproval of the German connec- blow to the cause of the United Nations than the destruc- tion. With Pekkala now removed, the Finnish ministry tion of the Russian army. With the rapidly growing threat apparently has attained a greater measure of agreement on in the west removed, Hitler could then turn all his forces the war issue. against the Soviet Union. But it is obvious that the Nazis' Despatches from Helsinki continue to suggest, however, most logical military move is not necessarily the most feasible. that the Finns will take no offensive action this summer. Most military observers continue to believe that an attack And despite reports of extensive German troop movements on Britain this summer would be a foolhardy venture, while to Northern Finland, informed sources apparently believe a full scale offensive against Russia would be a risk well that the Axis has insufficient land forces in the far north to worth taking. attempt an offensive against Murmansk. The Nazi Propaganda of False Hopes Dissenting Opinion on Nazi Plans Extravagant radio claims of Russian successes-ostensibly While Allied military opinion is almost unanimous in from Soviet sources-may be simply a device of the Germans predicting a German effort to eliminate Russia from the war to break down the morale of their enemies, according to a this summer, at least one close observer of Nazi air strength despatch from London. Apparently these Soviet claims, sees Britain as the next goal of German aggressive intentions. faked by the Nazi radio, are calculated to raise inordinately Taking the position that Russia is too extensive an area for the hopes of Russia's allies-only to have these replaced by the Nazis to occupy profitably, he believes that Hitler is anger and mutual recrimination when they fail to materialize. likely to hold the Soviet forces for the next 12 months by an This technique has the further advantage of later presenting active defensive, improving particular positions by minor 9 8 SECRET SECRET the Germans with fictitious victories, the report continues. A similar technique of playing up the (very real) sufferings of Close observers of the German scene view such optimism the Nazi troops in the Russian snows last winter misled as unsupported by their estimates of the German domestic many people in Allied countries. The present program of and military situation or by any reasonable prophecy which deception is apparently not unconnected with the current can now be made. It would be idle to attempt to present rumors of a Nazi "peace offensive" and the loose talk of an over-all picture of the German situation, but the Appendix "victory in 1942" in the United States. deals with certain aspects of the picture to which the Coordi- In 80 far as this American optimism is Axis-inspired, a nator's office has recently devoted careful study. Swedish correspondent in London of Social Demokraten discerns an Axis effort to stimulate over-confidence, slow Laval on the Mat down the American industrial effort, and lessen aid to Russia. The German radio, through its clandestine station, "Debunk," Once again the Axis appears to be putting pressure on had itself come out only this last week with "action" appeals France, and rumors suggest that Laval, checked on every to Americans which lend credence to the view that this wave front, may be considering important concessions to the of optimism is not unwelcome in Berlin. The tenor of these enemy. Laval had hoped to found a Latin bloc, some observ- appeals is simple: work more slowly, produce less, use passive ers believe, based on his old close association with Italy. resistance, and insist upon keeping troops, planes and ships at Instead Rome has seized the initiative. With new vigor home. she is demanding Nice, Corsica, and Tunis, "the rightful fruits of victory." It is stated in the press that Italy has sent Laval a detailed` note on territorial demands, and has A Wave of War Optimism Comes to America supported this by saber-rattling reviews of 300,000 troops The past two weeks have witnessed a surge of war optimism massed in battle equipment near the French Alpine border. in this country. This American "victory panic", as our News of increased activity on the part of the Italian Com- Swedish correspondent dubs it, reflects various develop- mission in North Africa also Comes from diplomatic sources, ments-reports on the Battle of the Coral Sea, optimistic and there is apparently much talk of the possibility of Italian American official statements, the Russian "offensive" before occupation of Tunis. Nevertheless, despite all these reports, Kharkov, and a vague feeling that the Germans are seriously it is still believed in some quarters that Mussolini may be weakening and that the crack-up may not be far off. This using this issue rather as a way to resist sending men to vein of optimism has developed despite the warning of the Russia, alleging the need of troops at home to take over President that the war will be long and that the press should these French areas. Rumors suggest that Laval may be do its part by reducing individual victories to their proper willing to negotiate over Tunis, but it is doubted in some proportions in the larger pattern of the struggle. A high circles if the Italians would be satisfied with less than Corsica point was reached when Newsweek carried as the title of its and Nice. lead article: "Chance for Victory in 1942 Causes Allied Germany has apparently become increasingly dissatisfied Hopes to Soar." with Laval, and it is perfectly possible that she is using these Italian demands as a lever to secure further French 10 11 SECRET SECRET collaboration, just as she is using the sinkings at Martinique mixture of patriotism and the habit of obedience to metro- to impose further strains on Franco-American relations. politan France, according to our source. They hate the Ger- Although the German press has expressed approval of mans and hope for a Nazi debacle, but they scorn the British Italian claims, it seems reasonable to assume that the Nazis for what is termed their hit-and-run attack of 1940. De would withdraw their support of Rome if France were to Gaulle is not popular, either as a symbol or as an individual. make, for instance, important concessions regarding control Nor would the United States be welcome as an intruder. of the French fleet. Following up this line, press despatches Moreover, behind every opinion lurks the whites' constant have gone 80 far as to suggest that Laval may be working concern over the native problem-an unstable, treacherous toward another of his famous compromises, to permit 15 million who might become a very great danger and re- German sailors to train at French naval yards and, it is sponsibility if the long-developed French colonial control assumed, to familiarize themselves with the operation of were ever upset. the French naval units now at Toulon. French officials in North Africa are outspoken in their requests for American economic, and, if possible, military The Axis Moves in Libya assistance. In Tunis civil and military authorities are mak- A large Axis armored column striking south of the British ing what preparations they can for resisting Italian designs, positions around Bir Hacheim, a point about forty miles though recognizing that any effective stand would depend on southwest of Tobruk, has broken the relative quiet that has outside support. Officials in Morocco feel that the Germans prevailed in Cyrenaica since Marshal Rommel made his cannot spare the troops and the United States cannot spare exploratory thrusts on April 8. It is too early to judge the ships for invasion of that area. They have frankly whether these operations are of major importance, but they remarked that, should American troops land in the region, follow a period when the aerial neutralization of Malta has the French would have to make a token resistance to avoid made possible reinforcement of Axis forces. German reprisals; but these high Moroccan officials insist The action of the last few days apparently began with that their present cooperative neutrality is worth very con- General Walther Nehring leading the African Corps on a siderable American economic assistance now. sweep from Tengeder, on the southern end of the Derna- Mechili line behind which Axis units have been concentrating. A British communiqué announces that the attack has been Opinion at Dakar met and repulsed. At Dakar, where the French have thus far successfully This Axis advance follows a period of stepped-up RAF opposed Nazi infiltration, it is believed that the authorities bombing, especially in the Martuba and Bengazi regions, will obey any Vichy order sanctioned by Marshal Pétain, reports of which have indicated Axis movements in the according to a recent report of a reliable and well-placed north. Although there are rumors of a general Axis drive observer. The military, constantly training and on the alert, in the Eastern Mediterranean, for which this attack to the are resolved jealously to protect their territory, moved by a south might be & diversion, it seems quite probable that this 12 13 SECRET SECRET Axis thrust is only a reconnaissance in force similar to those capitalized, Mexico's participation might be a powerful of early April. stimulus toward solidifying the entire hemisphere in the struggle against the Axis. Axis propaganda, especially in Argentina and Chile, has had considerable success in con- Turkey Pressed but Friendly juring up the bogey of "Yankee Imperialism" and mini- In Turkey the economic and food problems described last mizing the example of the small Central American republics week have continued to be 80 acute that a rumor now suggests which have followed the United States into the war by de- that Saracoglu, foreign minister and a respected administra- scribing them as "banana colonies" with no will of their own. tor, may replace the present prime minister. This would be But Mexico is no banana republic. She enjoys great prestige a move to quiet growing criticism of the touchy food problem, as the champion of Latin American independence. Mexico which was given a new edge by the recent one-third cut in has proved time and time again that it is not afraid to brave the bread ration. the wrath of the "Colossus of the North". Hence, it will Apparently nothing in this situation, however, affects presumably be difficult to persuade Latin Americans that military or political policy. An experienced Turkish diplo- Mexico is merely doing the bidding of the United States. mat reiterated that the Turkish army, while probably unable There is every indication that Mexico itself will assume an to repel the Nazis, would fight and would force the Germans active role in the task of promoting hemisphere solidarity. to use 30 divisions. The Turkish semi-official press and radio Mexico's entry into the war represents the triumph of the are cautiously neutral toward the Russo-German conflict, but labor and liberal elements within the country over the con- increasingly cordial and optimistic about the American cause. servative, clerical groups which have constantly obstructed Even the pro-Axis Cumhuriyet allowed favorable comment effective cooperation between Mexico and the United Nations. on our war effort. Current Turkish (and Egyptian) opinion The spearhead of the anti-Axis drive in Mexico has been of the British is apparently mixed-unflattering with respect Lombardo Toledano, supported by the Confederation of to British land forces, but showing high regard for the Mexican Workers (C. T. M.). Lombardo has undoubtedly British Navy. been the most important single factor in determining Mexico's In the area to the south the Axis has stepped up its radio new status as & belligerent, and it is likely that he will press activity. Taking advantage of the presence in Berlin of the that advantage both abroad and at home. exiled Iraq premier, Rashid Al-Gailani, and the Grand Mufti As head of the Confederation of Latin American Workers of Jerusalem, the Axis radio is giving more attention to the (C. T. A. L.), with important affiliates in Chile, Argentina, coming of the Germans to "liberate" Iran, Iraq, Palestine, and Colombia, and with smaller branches in a number of Saudi Arabia, Syria and the Lebanon. other South American countries, Lombardo can be expected to work through this organization to urge declarations of war against the Axis throughout South America. This Mexico Enters the War campaign may begin with a special congress of the C. T. A. L. The significance of Mexico's entry into the war is above in Mexico City in the near future. all political, rather than military and economic. Properly 14 15 SECRET SECRET At home, Lombardo and the anti-Axis groups can also be expected to increase their pressure for a clean-up of Axis risking political disunity (or worse), or of postponing the activities and a careful scrutiny of such organizations as the application of that measure and being turned out of office by Unión Nacional Sinarquista, Acción Nacional and other the English-speaking majority in Canada. smaller parties which are openly hostile or suspiciously cool Dissatisfaction among Quebec's three million French- toward the United States and its allies. Canadians-a third of the Dominion's population-is more serious than at first supposed, and appears to be crystallizing Drought and Rubber in Brazil into almost unanimous opposition. The resignation on May 12 of the leading French-Canadian member of the Cabinet, The critical drought now afflicting northeastern Brazil Minister of Transport P. J. Cardin, was followed on May 21 (The War This Week, May 14-21, p. 15) may prove to be a by the adoption of a motion, 67-7, in Quebec's provincial disaster not entirely devoid of benefits. As a relief measure legislature urging the maintenance of the voluntary system. for the local population, President Vargas has taken advan- Although Mr. Cardin's resignation has been discounted as tage of the situation to send additional laborers in to the Ama- the action of a disgruntled politician, the solidity of the pro- zon to work in the rubber forests. A Brazilian estimate vincial legislature is imposing, and its opposition might have states there are some 30,000 laborers available for this been even more radically expressed but for the tempering in- transfer. A decree has been issued providing transportation fluence of Premier Godbout of Quebec. by steamer from Fortaleza, capital of Ceara, to Belém at English-speaking Canadians appear to have passed the government cost. The Rubber Reserve Corporation of the point where compromise is likely. Should Prime Minister United States is paying part of the transportation costs by King-an adept compromiser-attempt to delay the enforce- river steamer to Manaos, and is assisting in the construction ment of overseas conscription, the more militant members of of barracks in that city to house the newcomers. The his Cabinet, Minister of Munitions and Supply Howe, Brazilian government has also guaranteed the workers from Minister of Defense Ralston, and Minister of Naval Services Ceara a wage of thirty milreis for each daily tour through the Macdonald, might now agree to shelve him. The only rubber forests. alternative to enactment and enforcement of & conscription measure in Quebec at all costs, according to the view expressed Mounting Crisis in Canada by some English-speaking Canadians, is the exclusion of Following the plebiscite of April 27, Canada may be on Quebec from its provisions, either through non-enforcement the threshold of one of the gravest crises in its history, or by provisions in the law itself. English-speaking Cana- according to a reliable observer just returned from Ottawa. dians in general are opposed to this solution, however, as In the plebiscite of April 27 Quebec alone of the nine provinces creating an undesirable precedent. All competent authorities failed to release the government from its promises regarding seem to agree that there is no immediate need for conscrip- conseription for overseas service. The government, and tion, as the Canadian armed forces are getting all the men especially Prime Minister King, are faced with the dilemma they need by the voluntary system at present. Overseas either of enforcing conseription against the will of Quebec and conseription is more than anything else a symbol of the total 16 17 SECRET SECRET war that Quebec alone of Canada's nine provinces is unwilling to wage. Rumors of Violence in Quebec APPENDIX One alarming symptom of the gathering storm in Quebec SOME ASPECTS OF THE GERMAN MILITARY AND is rumors of possible violence. French-Canadians express DOMESTIC SITUATION fear that the armed mobile units of the air raid warden service, composed largely of young English-speaking hot- In recent surveys the Coordinator's office has devoted careful study to certain aspects of the contemporary German situation, both military and domestic. heads, might turn into anti-French-Canadian vigilante First, on the military side, evidence indicates that the British bombing campaign groups. On the other hand, the wealthier Anglo-Canadians is distinctly less effective than press comment would suggest, the Coordinator's estimate on German casualties is much lower than those of the British, and the in Montreal are openly saying that they expect their homes German oil position is shown to be stronger than is generally believed. to be attacked by French-Canadian mobs. Such rumors, though probably completely unfounded, are an indication Effects of the British Air Offensive of the high inter-racial tension now existing in Quebec. A survey of the evidence by an air expert concludes that, at the present tempo, the British bombardment will have no major effect on the German War effort Another disturbing factor is the virulent campaign against against Russia between now and the time when operations are curtailed by the any implementation of the conscription law now being con- winter. It is very easy, however, to exaggerate the amount of damage which ducted by the leading newspapers of the French-Canadian would be done even if Anglo-American resources permit a notably heightened tempo of attack. The blits on Coventry, most successful of all, reduced the nationalist faction, especially Le Devoir of Montreal. The town's activity index, based on electric power consumption, to 37 percent of its influence of the latter is especially great among the lower previous level. But electric power consumption had returned to normal in about five or six weeks. The conclusion is simple: the most damaging blits of clergy of the province, who form the forefront of the anti- the war must be repeated every few weeks if the industrial activity of the target conscription movement. area la to be kept down to a damaging level. Thoughtful French-Canadians point out-that Quebec is in German Carualties on the Russian Front a state of bewilderment. Having put their faith in the Optimistic estimates of German permanent casualties on the Russian front' Liberal government's promise never to introduce conscrip- from British and other sources, run as high as 2,600,000. The estimate of the tion, they cannot understand why that government now Coordinator's office, however, in only about 1,400,000. This figure in unques- tionably a conservative one. While these higher estimates cannot be summarily appears to be repudiating its anti-conseription pledges just dismissed, it in believed that they are based on total casualty figures which are as the Conservatives did in 1917. Public opinion in Quebec too high and that the breakdowns of these figures utilize percentages of killed, missing, and totally disabled which are too great a proportion of total casualties. has not been sufficiently educated as to the necessities for this It should be noted that any estimate of permanent losses does not include the volte face. Whether enough time remains for a campaign of important factor of men in hospitals. What may be called the "hospital pool," enlightenment is open to question. If nothing is done, in & period of large-scale offensive operations such as the campaign of last fall in Russia, probably results in a constant drain of some 600,000-700,000 men on the according to our observer, extremist demagogues-of whom strength of the German armed forces. there are many in Quebec-will have an opportunity to disrupt The German Oil Position the province and might conceivably even try to bring about secession. During the second half of 1941-at the height of the fighting in Russis-Ger- many's consumption of petroleum was approximately equal to Nasi production, 18 19 SECRET SECRET according to a study prepared in the Economics Division of the Coordinator's end of that aloofness on February 4. 1938, and he did it without resorting to one office, while consumption last winter was considerably lower than current output. of Stalin's purges. The hostile officers were pensioned or gradually eliminated. From June to December of last year, petroleum consumption of the German It is safe to say that few enemies of Hitler remain among the higher officers. In ground and air forces on the Eastern Front probably amounted to about 430,000 the opinion of one very close and reliable observer of the German army, the tons a month-around 300,000 tons of which were for the ground forces alone. relationship between the Party and the Army is no longer an issue of fundamental Combat vehicles accounted for about 70 percent of this latter figure, supply importance. vehicles for the remainder. Divisions actively engaged in combat were respon- sible for more than 90 percent of the ground force consumption. Of the 130,000 The German Food Position tons consumed by the air force, almost all was for planes rather than for the supply service. The April change in German rations gave rise to optimistic comments in the During this same period, military consumption elsewhere than on the Russian press, even suggesting that Nazi food shortages might soon be serious. A recent front amounted to about 225,000 tons a month, with civilian consumption 670,000 analysis of the German food position by the Economics Division of the Coor- tons. The consumption total of 1.3 million tons a month was only slightly larger dinator's office, however, suggests a different situation (The War This Week, than the estimated production rate. Thus petroleum production and consump- April 16-23, 1942, pp. 15-16). Germany's food position appears to be cared tion were in approximate balance during that period of the war when Germany's for through the year 1942-43, on the assumption that the same areas now avail- military requirements were at their peak. At most the Nazis made no more able to her will continue to be. It is only after the end of the calendar year 1943 than negligible withdrawals from stocks. that the situation may become serious, and to a considerable extent this too may Although this report has not studied the period from December, 1941, to March, be avoided by & further reduction in rations, particularly for fats and oila and, in 1942, as carefully as the preceding period, it seems unlikely that military consump- all probability, for mests. Such reductions might still be made without dealing a tion of petroleum during the winter amounted to more than 420,000 tons a month. body blow to the efficiency of the German military and economic machine. If civilian consumption continued at the rate of 670,000 tons a month, total con- sumption was approximately 1.1 million tons-as compared with a production of Considerations of German Morale 1.3 million tons. The conclusion is inescapable that German petroleum stocks Intimately allied to such considerations as food rationing and British bombing last winter were increasing at a rate of approximately 200,000 tons a month. is the problem of German morale. The view that serious fissures have already appeared in the morale front and that the Allies "can win the war by propaganda" Party and Army is one of the favorite forms of contemporary wishful thinking. On the German home front, the Coordinator has devoted particular attention It is unquestionably true that the German people, imbued with the notion that to the relations of the Nazi Party and the Army, to the German food position, they were embarking on a short war of brilliant but inexpensive conquest, have and to German morale. been grievously disappointed. The reverses and serious losses suffered by the Certain writers have emphasized what they term a "fundamental opposition" German Army in Russia must have had deep and disheartening effects on all between the Party and the Army. But the old independent Wehrmacht no strata of the German population. The prospect of another winter of war, and longer exists. Since February 4, 1938, when Blomberg and Fritsch had to go, perhaps still another, is doubtless a nightmare to the great masses of the German the German army has been pretty effectively Nasified from the top downward. people. For some years now the entire young manhood of Germany has passed through On the other hand, there is no convincing evidence that German morale has the pre-military training entrusted on January 19, 1939 to the SA. All the been seriously impaired. A recent survey in the Coordinator's office reveals younger classes now in the Army are the products of Nazi training and education. widespread support of the existing regime in word and deed. There is grumbling Nothing is more certain than that the expansion of the 4000 commissioned officers and some dissidence among the aged, women, Austrians, South Germans, ardent of the old Reichswehr into the hundreds of thousands of officers of the present Lutherans and Catholics, intellectuals, Jews and certain others. But apparently army has resulted in an immense strengthening of the position of the Nazi Party there is no justification for the view that the organizational efficiency of the regime in the Army. Military Attaché reports agree that all the officers in the grades has been impaired by this dissidence. The widespread fear that, in the event of from major downward are solidly National Socialist, defeat the German people will reap a peace of vengeance, has undoubtedly con- The higher officers from colonel upward are still in the main the officers of the tributed to the creation of an attitude of grim determination to see the war Reichswehr. Promotion in the German army is slow, even in time of war. through at all costa. Very few Nazis have found their way into the higher and highest grades. The officers of these grades are above all professionals with little or no political tradi- Resistance in the Occupied Territories tion behind them. It was only due to the lack of political leadership on the part Recent discussions of alleged German weakness lay considerable emphasis on of Hammerstein, Blomberg and Fritsch that the Army, unlike the Navy and the Nazi difficulties in the occupied territories. The implication is that certain of Air Corps, held aloof from the National Socialist movement. Hitler made an these countries are already developing within them significant instruments of 20 21 SECRET SECRET revolt and that they are, therefore, Increasingly ripe for Allied invasion. Three countries are central in this argument: Italy, France, and Norway. In none of in & confusion in the minds of the French people themselves. Reports from them does the controlling authority (hence Nasi influence) seem to be threatened Vichy suggest that certain French civilian and military authorities, although not in any serious way. in sympathy with Laval himself, are still unwilling to believe that he will play The three fundamental forces in Italian life, namely, the monarchy (Including the the Germans' game completely. army), the fascist regime, and the Catholie Church, appear to be intact and to be The third factor is an apparent disinelination for organised revolt on the part united in an effort to preserve the integrity of the kingdom and the power of the of the French masses. A recent report from Vichy suggests that the French present government against foreign and domestic enemies, according to one close people will not dare to move until the Americans and British have established a student of Italy. second front in their country. Such & lack of initiative is not unconnected with The foreign enemies include the nations with which Italy in at war and may also the widespread malnutrition in both zones of France. The United Nations can include Italy's ally, Germany, whose increasing power in the peninsula la a matter scarcely rely on men weakened by hunger spontaneously to foment internal of great concern to Italian ruling circles, At the moment, this concern takes the revolt on any significant scale. form of limiting German control in Italy rather than of repudiating the German alliance which, from many points of view, has proved helpful to Italy (as, for Potential Norwegian Resistance example, in the Greek and North African campaigns). Curiously enough, even It is clear that since February there has been a marked deterioration of the in non-fascist or mild anti-fascist circles, Mussolini is looked upon as a bulwark relations between the Quisling regime and the people. Quisling, who is said to against overbearing German control in Italy. have gained the support of & scant one percent of the people, has met mounting hostility since the failure of his February trip to Berlin. This has been sharpened Monarchy and Church in Italy by his recent actions against the elergy and teachers of Norway. New food restrictions and persecution have also increased the provocation to revolt. The Savoy Monarchy, with its deep roots in Italian life, still has considerable There also exista an intelligent, disciplined Underground movement, engaged in prestige among the people and still commands the unquestioned loyalty of the disseminating information, planning sabotage, and collecting arms for the day army, our observer continues. The strongest elements in the army appear to be of Allied invasion. intact and to be still in Italy. The monarchy and the fancist regime need each However, as & recent study in the Coordinator's office shows, all this opposition other. To be sure, even if the fascist regime should fall, the monarchy could to Nazi rule and these preparations for armed revolt, do not threaten Germany's support. hope to survive because it might be able to count on the army and wide popular present strategy in Scandinavia. It is the Quisling government, not the German occupying forces, which is embarrassed by the uncooperativeness of the Norwegian The Catholic Church and the fascist regime have been and are on friendly civilians. Norwegians, who six months ago looked forward to an Anglo-American terms, he notes. The Church, even more than the monarchy, can pursue an invasion in the spring of 1942, now hardly dare hope for it this summer. Com- independent policy, even if fascism should fall. It must not be forgotten that mando raids, while in theory a reminder to the Norwegians that they are not for- the clergy in Italy-including the hierarchy-is predominantly Italian and feels gotten, have become increasingly embarrassing to the Underground, since they a great sense of patriotism towards Italy. offer an excellent excuse to the Germans for widespread arrests in reprisal. In any The fear of national humiliation, of chaos or revolution (Communism), is one of event, they are only local in character and do not afford an opportunity for the the strong bonda which unite the forces of fasciam, the monarchy and the Church Norwegians themselves to hamper Hitler's plans. at the present time. No organized anti-fascist movement, strong enough to seize Since February the Germans are estimated to have raised their forces in Nor- power, seems to exist in Italy today. There appears to be no immediate prospect way to & total of about eight or nine divisions. They are steadily improving that the fascist regime will be overthrown. communications, especially with the far north. They are obviously in a position All the above is subject to qualification dictated by & constantly changing world to tighten up their control of the civilian population at any time, as is seen in and Italian situation, our observer concludes. The most important qualification reported plans for clearing certain coastal areas. There in, moreover, con- in this: the return of Laval to power has created an "opening" which affords the siderable danger of any action that would prematurely expose the Underground best opportunity for a diplomatic anti-Nazi offensive in Italy since that country to the Nasi authorities. entered the war. In sum, it is clear that Norwegian resistance in stiffening as the pressure in- creases, and it may be that the deteriorating position of the Quisling regime Confusion and Weakness in France will bring some kind of & governmental reshuffling; but there does not appear At least three elementa in the current French situation tend to discount optimis- to be any evidence that effective Nazi control of Norway is cracking, or will tie views of the early crystallization of French resistance to the Nazis. First, crack unless there is an Allied invasion or & withdrawal of German forces. the political orientation of Laval remains undefined. He has yet to embark on an overt policy of collaboration. The second factor, & logical result of the first, 22 23 GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1948