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(Synopsis B, page 2) same situation that existed in Korea existed in a number of other places, where the possibility of attack existed, but it was not believed that the attack would take place at that time. "There has been considerable mention of two reports which are TRUMAN examples of intelligence information concerning the intentions of ARCHIVES and 'NATIONAL AND John the North Korean Forces, which were available prior to June 25. The joint weekly intelligence cable from Commander in Chief, Far East, RECORDS SERVICE" on March 10, 1950, noted: 'Report received that People's Army will a cop invade South Korea in June 1950. 1 To that was attached this comment: III Comment: The People's Army will be prepared to invade South Korea by fall and possibly by spring of this year indicated in the current report of armed-force expansion and major troop movements at critical 38th parallel areas. Even if future reports bear out the present indication, it is believed civil war will not necessarily be precipitated; so that intentions in Korea are believed closely related to Communist program in Southeast Asia. Seems likely that Communist overt military measures in Korea will be held in abeyance, at least until further observations made by Soviets of results of their program in such places as Indochina, Burma, and Thailand. If the Soviets are satisfied they are winning the struggle for these places they probably will be content to wait a while longer and let South Korea ripen for future harvest. If checked or defeated in their operations in these countries in Asia they may divert large share of their effort to South Korea, which would result in a People's Army invasion of South Korea. That was on the 10th of March. On the 25th of March, that is 15 days after this report was sent in, G-2 of the Far East Command, stated his conclusion that: "IIt is believed that there will be no civil war in Korea this spring or summer. The most probable course of North Korean action this spring or summer is furtherance of its attempt to overthrow the South Korean Government by the creation of chaotic conditions in the Republic through guerrilla activities and psychological warfare. "Now it is interesting to note in this connection that on October 12, 1949, the intelligence summary from Commander in Chief, Far East, passed on a report that an attack was to be started on the 15th of October 1949, but stated that it was probably fabricated. "November 5, 1949, the intelligence summary had expressed the view that previous rumors of an invasion during August, September, and October of 1949 had been started by the North Koreans for the purpose of causing unrest in South Korea. Also, in his report of December 30, 1949, he advocated that a report that an invasion was to occur in March or April 1950 was not necessarily correct. "The report of January 1, 1950, and Februaru 19, 1950, also contain reports of invasions in March and April 1950, and were discounted. "Therefore, you would have had reports that this attack was going to occur almost every month, and the intelligence of the Far East believed that was not the case.' North Korean North Korean troops launched surprise attacks against the ROK along Invasion the 38th parallel early on the morning of June 25th (4 a.m., Korean

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    "ocrText": "(Synopsis B, page 2)\nsame situation that existed in Korea existed in a number of other\nplaces, where the possibility of attack existed, but it was not\nbelieved that the attack would take place at that time.\n\"There has been considerable mention of two reports which are\nTRUMAN\nexamples of intelligence information concerning the intentions of\nARCHIVES and 'NATIONAL AND John\nthe North Korean Forces, which were available prior to June 25. The\njoint weekly intelligence cable from Commander in Chief, Far East,\nRECORDS\nSERVICE\"\non March 10, 1950, noted: 'Report received that People's Army will\na\ncop\ninvade South Korea in June 1950. 1 To that was attached this comment:\nIII Comment: The People's Army will be prepared to invade South Korea\nby fall and possibly by spring of this year indicated in the current\nreport of armed-force expansion and major troop movements at critical\n38th parallel areas. Even if future reports bear out the present\nindication, it is believed civil war will not necessarily be\nprecipitated; so that intentions in Korea are believed closely\nrelated to Communist program in Southeast Asia. Seems likely that\nCommunist overt military measures in Korea will be held in abeyance,\nat least until further observations made by Soviets of results of\ntheir program in such places as Indochina, Burma, and Thailand. If\nthe Soviets are satisfied they are winning the struggle for these\nplaces they probably will be content to wait a while longer and let\nSouth Korea ripen for future harvest. If checked or defeated in\ntheir operations in these countries in Asia they may divert large\nshare of their effort to South Korea, which would result in a\nPeople's Army invasion of South Korea. That was on the 10th of\nMarch. On the 25th of March, that is 15 days after this report was\nsent in, G-2 of the Far East Command, stated his conclusion that:\n\"IIt is believed that there will be no civil war in Korea this\nspring or summer. The most probable course of North Korean action\nthis spring or summer is furtherance of its attempt to overthrow\nthe South Korean Government by the creation of chaotic conditions\nin the Republic through guerrilla activities and psychological\nwarfare.\n\"Now it is interesting to note in this connection that on October\n12, 1949, the intelligence summary from Commander in Chief, Far\nEast, passed on a report that an attack was to be started on the 15th\nof October 1949, but stated that it was probably fabricated.\n\"November 5, 1949, the intelligence summary had expressed the view\nthat previous rumors of an invasion during August, September, and\nOctober of 1949 had been started by the North Koreans for the purpose\nof causing unrest in South Korea. Also, in his report of December\n30, 1949, he advocated that a report that an invasion was to occur\nin March or April 1950 was not necessarily correct.\n\"The report of January 1, 1950, and Februaru 19, 1950, also contain\nreports of invasions in March and April 1950, and were discounted.\n\"Therefore, you would have had reports that this attack was going\nto occur almost every month, and the intelligence of the Far East\nbelieved that was not the case.'\nNorth Korean\nNorth Korean troops launched surprise attacks against the ROK along\nInvasion\nthe 38th parallel early on the morning of June 25th (4 a.m., Korean"
}