Memorandum, State Department Summary of Telegrams

NLT/NAVAL AIDE)434 OFFICE OF DECLASSIFIED THE SECRETARY OF STATE E.O. 12065, Sec. 3-402 WASHINGTON State Dept. Guidelines, March 6, 1982 By DEB NLT, Date 9-10-8 November 28, 1952 TOP SECRET SECURITY INFORMATION SUMMARY OF TELEGRAMS IRAQ We have asked our Embassies in Baghdad and London for clarification of reports that the British believe the present crisis in Iraq might lead to a situation in which their forces would have to intervene to protect British and other friendly foreigners and British interests in Iraq, par- - ticularly the oil installations at Kirkuk. At the same time, Embassy London states the UK Foreign Office is not particularly concerned over the possibility of nationalization of the Iraq oil industry. The Foreign Office thinks that on the whole, intelligent Iraqis are con- scious of the benefits derived from the oil concessions and aware of the dangers of nationalization which have shown themselves in the Iranian situation. Our Ambassador in Baghdad has discussed the damage to the US Information Service building which occurred during the recent rioting. The tone of the Acting Foreign Minister and the Foreign Office Under Secretary was one of sincere regret and the Iraqi officials agreed that it was important to resume our in- formation operations as soon as possible to combat Communist propaganda. Our Embassy in analyzing recent developments notes there is a very slender margin between stability and instability in Iraq. The rioting demonstrated what a small, localized but vocal and determined group can do against superior forces. Pre- vious reports that social discontent and Communist strength in Iraq are increasing have now been confirmed. A fundamental weakness was the unwillingness of the authorizied to use sufficient force to maintain control. The Embassy believes the total effect has been to point up the hazardous position of the West and to in- dicate the basis upon which we can influence Iraq is narrowing. The Government's policy toward making open commitments to the West is now likely to be more cautious than heretofore. Our representatives further note that although the new Prime Minister, General Nureddin Mahmoud, has promised direct elections, this alone will not change the basic character of the regime and that the gap between the Government and the middle and lower classes remains. TOP SEGRET SECURITY INFORMATION